Royal Bank of Canada (RY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

This conference is being recorded. (spoken in foreign language) All participants please stand by, your meeting is ready to begin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the RBC's 2024 fourth quarter results conference call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded.

本次會議正在錄製中。（外語發言）請所有與會者等候，您的會議準備開始。早安，女士們先生們。歡迎參加加拿大皇家銀行 2024 年第四季業績電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Asim Imran. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給阿西姆·伊姆蘭 (Asim Imran)。請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Speaking today will be Dave McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer; Katherine Gibson, Chief Financial Officer; and Graeme Hepworth, Chief Risk Officer. Also joining us today for your questions, Erika Nielsen, Group Head, Personal Banking; Sean Amato-Gauci, Group Head, Commercial Banking; Neil McLaughlin, Group Head, Wealth Management; Derek Neldner, Group Head, Capital Markets; and Jennifer Publicover, Group Head, Insurance.

謝謝大家，早安。今天發言的是總裁兼執行長 Dave McKay；凱瑟琳·吉布森，財務長；首席風險長 Graeme Hepworth。今天也加入我們，回答您的問題，個人銀行業務集團主管 Erika Nielsen； Sean Amato-Gauci，商業銀行業務集團主管； Neil McLaughlin，財富管理部門主管； Derek Neldner，資本市場部主管；以及保險集團負責人 Jennifer Publicover。

As noted on slide 1, our comments may contain forward-looking statements which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis, and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. To give everyone a chance to ask questions, we ask that you limit your questions, and then requeue.

如投影片 1 所示，我們的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及假設並具有固有的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我還想提醒聽眾，銀行在報告和調整的基礎上評估其業績，並認為兩者都有助於評估基本業務績效。為了讓每個人都有機會提問，我們要求您限制提問，然後重新排隊。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

有了這個，我會把它交給戴夫。

Thank you Asim. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us. Today, we reported fourth quarter earnings of $4.2 billion, including $265 million of earnings from the acquisition of HSBC Canada. Adjusted earnings of $4.4 billion are up 18% year over year, or 9% excluding adjusted earnings of $318 million from HSBC Canada.

謝謝阿西姆。大家早安。感謝您加入我們。今天，我們公佈了第四季度收益 42 億加元，其中包括收購加拿大匯豐銀行的收益 2.65 億加元。調整後獲利 44 億加元，年增 18%，若不包括加拿大匯豐銀行調整後獲利 3.18 億加元，則成長 9%。

This quarter, we benefited from market appreciation and strong client activity across our largest segments. Importantly, we generated all bank operating leverage of 7% or 4% on an adjusted basis. Provisions for credit loss on impaired loans remain largely stable quarter over quarter at 26 basis points.

本季度，我們受益於市場升值和我們最大細分市場的強勁客戶活動。重要的是，我們在調整後的基礎上將所有銀行營運槓桿調整為 7% 或 4%。減損貸款信用損失準備金較上季基本上保持穩定，為 26 個基點。

Looking back at our 2024 fiscal year, RBC delivered earnings of $16.2 billion or adjusted -- excuse me adjusted earnings of over $17 billion. We ended the year with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.2%, resulting in $5 billion of excess capital above a 12.5% level.

回顧 2024 財年，加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 實現了 162 億美元的盈利或調整後的盈利——對不起，調整後的盈利超過 170 億美元。年終時，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.2%，超額資本達 50 億美元，高於 12.5% 的水平。

We continue to expand our funding capacity and profile this year, including through strong client driven deposit growth. We added over 600,000 clients in the combined Canadian banking business this year as we benefited from our leading distribution, strategic partnerships, and differentiated products, services, and innovative client value propositions.

今年，我們將繼續擴大我們的融資能力和規模，包括透過強勁的客戶驅動存款成長。今年，我們在合併後的加拿大銀行業務中增加了超過 60 萬名客戶，這得益於我們領先的分銷、戰略合作夥伴關係以及差異化的產品、服務和創新的客戶價值主張。

This included, RBC becoming the official financial services and ticket access partner of Taylor Swift, the Eras tour in Canada. Furthermore, we are proud that RBC ranked the highest in the 2024 JD Power Canada Retail Banking satisfaction study, the fourth time in five years.

其中包括，加拿大皇家銀行成為泰勒絲 Eras 加拿大巡迴的官方金融服務和門票合作夥伴。此外，我們感到自豪的是，RBC 在 2024 年 JD Power 加拿大零售銀行滿意度研究中排名最高，這是五年內第四次。

In the US, we are seeing increasing client interest in RBC Clear, our cash management business, with rising inflows of deposits and a robust pipeline. Client feedback has been positive as we look to build the next phase of our holistic multi-year initiative. And City National's 83% loan to deposit ratio was largely underpinned by a base of core deposits.

在美國，我們看到客戶對我們的現金管理業務 RBC Clear 的興趣不斷增加，存款流入不斷增加，管道也很強勁。當我們尋求建立我們整體多年計劃的下一階段時，客戶回饋非常積極。City National 83% 的存貸比主要是由核心存款基礎支撐的。

We maintained our prudent risk appetite. ACE on loans and acceptances increased to 64 basis points. We had no days of trading losses this year, and the operational risk multiplier remained flat at a ratio of 0.8. We ended the fiscal 2024 with a strong RoE of 14.4%, or an adjusted RoE of 15.5% during a year in which we closed our largest ever -- excuse me acquisition.

我們維持審慎的風險偏好。貸款和承兌匯票的 ACE 增至 64 個基點。今年我們沒有出現交易虧損天數，操作風險乘數維持在 0.8 的水平。 2024 財年結束時，我們的 RoE 高達 14.4%，調整後的 RoE 為 15.5%，在這一年中我們完成了有史以來規模最大的收購——請原諒。

Our premium RoE drove internal capital generation of over 280 basis points this year, excluding specified items. This in turn drove strong book value growth of 9%. I will now provide my perspective on the macro environment.

今年，我們的優質 RoE 推動內部資本產生超過 280 個基點（不包括特定項目）。這反過來推動帳面價值強勁成長 9%。我現在就宏觀環境發表一下我的看法。

In Canada, inflation has declined towards targeted levels amidst weaker consumer spending and a K-shaped economy. Subdued business conditions and rising unemployment, which is up 80 basis points from last year.

在加拿大，由於消費者支出疲軟和 K 型經濟，通膨已降至目標水準。商業環境低迷，失業率上升，較去年上升 80 個基點。

Further headwinds include a more constrained immigration policy, and the threat of rising protectionism. Partly offsetting these risks are rising consumer income levels, solid savings rates, and 125 basis points of Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. These factors in combination could begin to firm up demand and moderate increases in credit losses in a rate sensitive Canadian economy.

進一步的阻力包括更嚴格的移民政策以及保護主義抬頭的威脅。消費者收入水準的提高、穩定的儲蓄率以及加拿大央行降息 125 個基點在一定程度上抵消了這些風險。這些因素結合起來可能會開始提振需求，並減緩對利率敏感的加拿大經濟信貸損失的增加。

In contrast, the economic backdrop in the US has been far more resilient where consumer spending and business expectations are rising. While the potential of an expansive US fiscal policy could create uncertainty around the size and timing of monetary policy actions, we expect rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support constructive client appetite, and activity levels across senior markets.

相較之下，美國的經濟背景則更具彈性，消費者支出和商業預期不斷上升。儘管美國擴張性財政政策的潛力可能會為貨幣政策行動的規模和時機帶來不確定性，但我們預計聯準會降息將支持建設性的客戶胃口以及整個高級市場的活動水平。

In this environment, we are maintaining our medium term objectives, including delivering on an RoE of over 16%, which we expect will be underpinned by earnings growth and accretive capital deployment. We consider many factors when allocating capital.

在這種環境下，我們將維持中期目標，包括實現超過 16% 的 RoE，我們預計這一目標將得到獲利成長和增值資本部署的支撐。我們在配置資本時會考慮許多因素。

Disciplined client-driven RWA growth is always a priority, and we expect to take advantage of increased opportunities to support our commercial banking and capital markets client financing needs.

客戶驅動的 RWA 成長始終是首要任務，我們希望利用更多的機會來支持我們的商業銀行和資本市場客戶融資需求。

As it relates to returning capital to our shareholders, this morning, we announced a $0.06 or 4% increase in our quarterly dividend. We have been cautious in buying back stock this quarter, given our higher degree of volatility around election outcomes, and monetary policy.

由於涉及向股東返還資本，今天上午，我們宣布季度股息增加 0.06 美元，即 4%。鑑於選舉結果和貨幣政策的波動性較大，本季我們在回購股票方面一直持謹慎態度。

Going forward, we will look to use buybacks as a lever to deploy capital, and we'll tactically increase the cadence when opportunities arise. With this context, I will now provide an update on our multipronged client focused growth strategy, starting with our acquisition of HSBC Canada, which positions RBC as the bank of choice for newcomers and commercial clients with international needs.

展望未來，我們將尋求利用回購作為部署資本的槓桿，並且當機會出現時，我們將在戰術上增加節奏。在此背景下，我現在將介紹我們以客戶為中心的多管齊下的成長策略的最新情況，首先是我們收購加拿大匯豐銀行，該策略將加拿大皇家銀行定位為新移民和有國際需求的商業客戶的首選銀行。

HSBC Canada's adjusted earnings included realized run rate savings of over $400 million or approximately 55% of the stated target on an annualized basis. We remain confident that we will achieve our expense synergy goal of $740 million, majority captured in personal banking. We will look to disclose the anticipated financial benefits of revenue synergies in the coming quarters.

加拿大匯豐銀行的調整後收益包括已實現超過 4 億加元的運行率節省，或按年化計算約為既定目標的 55%。我們仍有信心實現 7.4 億美元的費用協同目標，其中大部分來自個人銀行業務。我們將在未來幾季揭露收入綜效的預期財務效益。

The key initiatives driving our initial successes include cross selling of RBC personal banking products to clients acquired through the acquisition of HSBC Canada, as well as our investments in new capabilities such as foreign currency accounts. The acquisition has added increased scale to all our businesses, particularly commercial banking. We also expect revenue synergies from trade finance and global cash management capabilities.

推動我們初步成功的關鍵措施包括向透過收購加拿大匯豐銀行獲得的客戶交叉銷售加拿大皇家銀行個人銀行產品，以及對外幣帳戶等新功能的投資。此次收購擴大了我們所有業務的規模，特別是商業銀行業務。我們也預期貿易融資和全球現金管理能力將產生收入綜效。

Moving to personal banking, where we remain focused on client acquisition, deepening client relationships and improving productivity. The following comments relate to personal bank in Canada. We reported strong deposit growth of 19% or 8% excluding HSBC Canada.

轉向個人銀行業務，我們仍然專注於獲取客戶、深化客戶關係和提高生產力。以下評論涉及加拿大的個人銀行。我們報告存款強勁成長 19% 或 8%（不包括加拿大匯豐銀行）。

These deposits are a core relationship product. This quarter we saw growth in all three of core banking, term deposits and investment accounts, as we continue to capture the money in motion shift, given the evolving interest rate and market outlook. Our One RBC client first approach is also reflected in the multiple awards, and record Net Promoter Scores achieved by our private bank.

這些存款是核心關係產品。本季度，鑑於不斷變化的利率和市場前景，我們繼續捕捉流動資金的變化，核心銀行業務、定期存款和投資帳戶這三項業務均出現成長。我們的 One RBC 客戶至上的方針也體現在我們的私人銀行獲得的多項獎項和創紀錄的淨推薦值上。

Turning to mortgages, where we plan to maintain our disciplined growth strategy amidst intense competition, as part of this strategy, we have invested in technology to improve our end-to-end digital renewal processes ahead of upcoming mortgage renewals.

談到抵押貸款，我們計劃在激烈的競爭中保持嚴格的成長策略，作為該策略的一部分，我們投資了技術，以在即將到來的抵押貸款續訂之前改進我們的端到端數位續約流程。

Furthermore, we are leveraging investments in technology and artificial intelligence to create client value while improving productivity. For the third year in a row, RBC ranked in the top three global financial institutions for artificial intelligence maturity, and the evident AI index.

此外，我們正在利用對科技和人工智慧的投資來創造客戶價值，同時提高生產力。加拿大皇家銀行連續第三年在人工智慧成熟度和明顯的人工智慧指數方面位列全球金融機構前三名。

Turning to our leading commercial banking franchise, where we remain focused on prudent growth and leveraging our strong Canadian cash management and transaction banking offerings. Loans and deposits in Q4 were up 37% or 19% year-over-year respectively.

談到我們領先的商業銀行業務，我們仍然專注於審慎成長，並利用我們強大的加拿大現金管理和交易銀行產品。第四季貸款和存款年增 37% 和 19%。

Excluding HSBC Canada, loans and deposits were up 12% and 8% respectively, largely with our existing clients. We've significantly invested in frontline capabilities and coverage teams over the past few years, and more recently further expanded our coverage and bench strength with talent joining from the HSBC Canada acquisition. We expect growth to remain solid across our diversified set of sectors.

不包括加拿大匯豐銀行，貸款和存款分別成長 12% 和 8%，主要來自我們的現有客戶。過去幾年，我們對一線能力和覆蓋團隊進行了大量投資，最近透過收購匯豐加拿大的人才加入，進一步擴大了我們的覆蓋範圍和後備力量。我們預計多元化產業的成長將保持穩健。

Turning to capital markets, a business where we aspire to move even further up the league tables across key categories. Inclusive of record fourth quarter revenue, pre-provision pre-tax earnings were $5 billion for the year, above our guidance of $1.1 billion per quarter. Lending and other revenue were up 14% from last year, benefiting from higher lending volumes, and spreads.

轉向資本市場，我們渴望在這個業務的關鍵類別中進一步提升排名。包括創紀錄的第四季營收在內，全年撥備前稅前收益為 50 億美元，高於我們每季 11 億美元的指引。由於貸款量和利差的增加，貸款和其他收入比去年增長了 14%。

In investment banking, we gained 20 basis points of market share over the last 12 months, notably in equity origination and M&A advisory, which are key areas of focus. We have a robust pipeline that continues to build as we progressed through 2024 with active dialogue across client segments.

在投資銀行業務領域，我們的市佔率在過去 12 個月中成長了 20 個基點，特別是在股權發行和併購諮詢領域，這是我們重點關注的領域。我們擁有強大的管道，隨著 2024 年的進展，我們將透過跨客戶群的積極對話繼續建立。

There are also signs that private equity activity is picking up as sponsors look to deploy their significant levels of uninvested funds. We will continue to work towards increasing banker productivity, including a focus on winning multiproduct mandates as well as strategic senior hiring in key industry verticals.

還有跡象表明，隨著贊助商尋求部署大量未投資資金，私募股權活動正在回升。我們將繼續努力提高銀行家的生產力，包括重點贏得多產品授權以及關鍵產業垂直領域的策略性高級人才招募。

Global markets reported $1.3 billion in revenue this quarter, reflecting a constructive backdrop in fixed income products. We plan to continue investing in talent and technology to gain market share in this business.

本季全球市場收入為 13 億美元，反映出固定收益產品的正面背景。我們計劃繼續投資於人才和技術，以獲得該業務的市場份額。

Moving to our wealth management segment, where we look to leverage our diversified product shelf and holistic solutions, improve our technology, and grow our adviser base in distribution channels. This quarter, revenue was up 20% year-over-year, benefiting from higher markets, asset gathering, and client driven transactional revenue.

轉向我們的財富管理領域，我們希望利用我們多元化的產品架和整體解決方案，改進我們的技術，並擴大我們在分銷管道中的顧問基礎。本季營收年增 20%，受益於更高的市場、資產收集和客戶驅動的交易收入。

RBC's Global Asset Management's assets under management increased $139 billion or 26% from last year. GAM generated Canadian retail mutual fund net sales of $3 billion In 2024, compared to industry flows that were in a net redemption state. In this volatile environment, our clients chose us as a trusted adviser in part due to our performance and expertise.

RBC 旗下全球資產管理公司管理的資產較去年增加了 1,390 億美元，即 26%。2024 年，GAM 為加拿大零售共同基金帶來了 30 億美元的淨銷售額，而產業流量則處於淨贖回狀態。在這個動盪的環境中，我們的客戶選擇我們作為值得信賴的顧問，部分原因是我們的表現和專業知識。

Nearly 80% of AUM outperformed the benchmark on a 1-, 3- and 5-year blended basis. This was a milestone quarter for our global wealth advisory businesses which reached $2 trillion of assets under administration for the first time. Being wealth management assets under administration increased 26% or nearly $180 billion from last year.

在 1 年、3 年和 5 年混合基礎上，近 80% 的 AUM 表現優於基準。對於我們的全球財富諮詢業務來說，這是一個具有里程碑意義的季度，管理資產首次達到 2 兆美元。管理的財富管理資產較去年增加26%，接近1,800億美元。

AUA in US wealth management, including CNB, was up 23% or USD125 billion. We recruited over 100 advisers this year. Furthermore, loans and deposits in our US wealth advisory business reported strong growth this quarter, and we -- as we add banking products to support client needs.

包括 CNB 在內的美國財富管理領域的 AUA 成長了 23%，即 1,250 億美元。今年我們招募了 100 多名顧問。此外，我們美國財富諮詢業務的貸款和存款本季強勁成長，而且我們增加了銀行產品來支援客戶需求。

On a full year basis, City National reported net income of USD144 million. After adjusting for specified items and other items impacting results, earnings were USD391 million as CNB continues to improve its earnings profile. Well a relatively small contributor to all bank earnings, CNB remains an important element of our growth strategy in the United States.

City National 全年淨利為 1.44 億美元。在對特定項目和其他影響業績的項目進行調整後，隨著 CNB 繼續改善其盈利狀況，盈利為 3.91 億美元。CNB 對所有銀行獲利的貢獻相對較小，但仍是我們在美國成長策略的重要組成部分。

Turning to our insurance segment, which continues to generate high RoE earnings, we remain focused on harnessing the power of One RBC to deepen client relationships, and provide a comprehensive suite by advice and solutions to both individuals and businesses.

至於我們的保險部門，該部門繼續產生高 RoE 收益，我們仍然專注於利用 One RBC 的力量來加深客戶關係，並為個人和企業提供一整套建議和解決方案。

The year-over-year increase in contractual service margin, which represents the future profit on our long term products was underpinned by growth in segregated funds, and individual life and health products, creating a foundation for future revenue growth.

合約服務利潤率（代表我們長期產品的未來利潤）的同比增長受到獨立基金以及個人人壽和健康產品增長的支撐，為未來收入增長奠定了基礎。

In conclusion, we are well positioned entering fiscal 2025. Our balance sheet provides a strong foundation to keep growing our client base across our diversified lines of business in a prudent and efficient manner.

總之，我們在進入 2025 財年時處於有利位置。我們的資產負債表為以審慎高效的方式不斷擴大多元化業務領域的客戶群奠定了堅實的基礎。

I want to thank our more than 98,000 employees who live our purpose and create value for 18 million plus retail, commercial, and institutional clients every day. This commitment to excellence is reflected in the power of our brand.

我要感謝我們超過 98,000 名員工，他們實踐我們的宗旨，每天為超過 1800 萬零售、商業和機構客戶創造價值。這種對卓越的承諾體現在我們品牌的力量中。

I'm proud that RBC maintained its number 1 position in the Kantar brands most valuable Canadian brands in 2024 ranking, outperforming financial peers in key areas, including consumer trust, and corporate reputation.

我很自豪 RBC 在 2024 年 Kantar 品牌最有價值加拿大品牌排名中保持第一的位置，在消費者信任和企業聲譽等關鍵領域超越金融同行。

With that, Katherine, over to you.

凱瑟琳，接下來就交給你了。

Thanks Dave, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 11, we reported diluted earnings per share of $2.91 this quarter. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $3.07, up 16% from last year, benefiting from the acquisition of HSBC Canada. Each of our businesses exhibited strong double digit revenue growth this quarter, which underpinned robust adjusted all bank operating leverage of 4.3%.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。從幻燈片 11 開始，我們報告本季稀釋後每股收益為 2.91 美元。調整後攤薄每股收益為 3.07 美元，較去年增長 16%，受益於收購加拿大匯豐銀行。本季我們的每項業務均呈現強勁的兩位數收入成長，這支撐了 4.3% 的強勁調整後所有銀行營運槓桿。

Turning to capital on slide 12, our CET1 ratio improved to 13.2%, up 20 basis points from last quarter, mainly reflecting internal capital generation, net of dividends. This was partly offset by business growth and net credit migration, mainly in the wholesale portfolios.

轉向投影片 12 上的資本，我們的 CET1 比率提高至 13.2%，比上季度上升 20 個基點，主要反映扣除股息後的內部資本產生。這部分被業務成長和淨信貸遷移（主要是批發投資組合）所抵消。

We also repurchased approximately 408,000 shares this quarter or $67 million. We will continue to prioritize capital allocation towards client driven organic growth, and dividend increases in line with earnings. In addition, we will be opportunistic in our use of buybacks.

本季我們也回購了約 408,000 股股票，即 6,700 萬美元。我們將繼續優先考慮客戶驅動的有機成長的資本配置，並根據收益增加股息。此外，我們將機會主義地利用回購。

Moving to slide 13, all bank net interest income was up 17% year-over-year, or up 15% excluding trading revenue. These results were largely driven by the addition of HSBC Canada, as well as higher volumes and spreads in both personal banking and commercial banking.

轉向投影片 13，所有銀行淨利息收入年增 17%，如果不包括交易收入，則成長 15%。這些表現主要是由於加拿大匯豐銀行的加入，以及個人銀行業務和商業銀行業務的交易量和利差的增加所推動的。

The all bank net interest margin excluding trading revenue was up 6 basis points from last quarter, largely due to a favorable funding cost adjustment, and improved lending spreads in capital markets. Favorable tailwinds in Canadian banking also contributed to the increase.

剔除交易收入後的全銀行淨利差較上季上升6個基點，主要得益於有利的融資成本調整以及資本市場貸款利差改善。加拿大銀行業的有利推動因素也促成了這一成長。

Canadian banking NIM was up 2 basis points from last quarter as the benefits from our tractor deposit strategy and changes in product mix were partly offset by ongoing competition for term deposits, which we expect to persist throughout the year, as well as the dilutive impact of the BA core of migration.

加拿大銀行業的淨利差較上季上升2 個基點，原因是我們的拖拉機存款策略和產品組合變化帶來的收益被定期存款的持續競爭（我們預計這種競爭將持續一整年）以及稀釋性影響所部分抵銷。

We hedge our low-cost non-maturity deposits in a laddered strategy of three and five year duration. Going forward, with five year swap rates up approximately 140 basis points from five years ago, our core deposit portfolio is well positioned to provide an offset to the impact of lower short term interest rates.

我們採用三年期和五年期的階梯策略來對沖低成本非到期存款。展望未來，五年期掉期利率較五年前上漲約 140 個基點，我們的核心存款投資組合處於有利位置，可以抵銷短期利率較低的影響。

In the past, we have highlighted that there are many variables that impact NIM, including changes in client and competitive behavior, and the forward curve, which are difficult to predict in the current dynamic environment. Looking forward to 2025, we are providing new guidance, with net interest income ex-trading revenue expected to grow in the mid to high single digit range.

過去，我們強調影響淨利差的變數有很多，包括客戶和競爭行為的變化以及遠期曲線，這些在當前的動態環境中很難預測。展望 2025 年，我們提供新的指引，預計除交易收入外的淨利息收入將在中高個位數範圍內成長。

Moving to slide 14, non-interest expenses were up 12% from last year on both a reported and adjusted basis. The bulk of the year-over-year core expense growth was driven by higher variable compensation to measure it with higher revenue. Higher volume-driven costs, investments in technology and discretionary costs also contributed to the growth.

轉向投影片 14，根據報告和調整後的數據，非利息支出比去年增加了 12%。核心費用的同比增長大部分是由較高的可變薪酬推動的，以較高的收入來衡量。較高的銷售驅動成本、技術投資和可自由支配成本也促進了成長。

Looking forward, given the uncertain macro environment, we will continue upholding a disciplined approach to cost management. We expect all bank core expense growth, including run rate HSBC Canada costs to be in the mid-single digit range for 2025, off a base of reported 2024 expenses.

展望未來，鑑於宏觀環境的不確定性，我們將繼續堅持嚴格的成本管理方法。我們預計 2025 年所有銀行核心費用成長（包括加拿大匯豐銀行的運作成本）將在 2024 年報告費用的基礎上保持在中個位數範圍內。

Core expense growth in the first half of the year is expected to be in the high single digit range, reflecting the inclusion of HSBC Canada results and to a lesser extent, investments for our next phase of growth. While we anticipate volatility within our guidance range to be largely driven by movements in variable compensation, we ultimately expect to drive positive operating leverage throughout the course of the year.

今年上半年的核心費用成長預計將在高個位數範圍內，反映了加拿大匯豐銀行的業績，以及在較小程度上反映了我們下一階段成長的投資。雖然我們預計指導範圍內的波動主要是由可變薪酬的變動所驅動的，但我們最終預計全年將推動積極的營運槓桿。

As a reminder, core expense growth excludes the impact of FX and share based compensation, which are largely driven by macro factors. Reflected in this guidance is the expectation of 1% to 2% operating leverage for the combined Canadian banking businesses.

需要提醒的是，核心費用成長不包括外匯和以股票為基礎的薪酬的影響，這在很大程度上是由宏觀因素驅動的。該指引反映了合併後的加拿大銀行業務營運槓桿為 1% 至 2% 的預期。

Turning to taxes, the non-cash effective tax rate was 19% this quarter or 19.5% on an adjusted basis. As we look to 2025, we expect the adjusted non-TEB effective tax rate to be in the 20% to 22% range, reflecting the impact of Pillar 2 income taxes which arise in jurisdictions where our operations have an effective tax rate below 15%.

說到稅收，本季非現金有效稅率為 19%，調整後為 19.5%。展望 2025 年，我們預計調整後的非 TEB 有效稅率將在 20% 至 22% 範圍內，反映我們業務有效稅率低於 15% 的司法管轄區產生的第二支柱所得稅的影響。

Turning to our Q4 segment results, beginning on slide 15. Personal banking reported earnings of $1.6 billion. Focusing on personal banking Canada, net income was up 17% year-over-year. Excluding $86 million of NIAT from HSBC Canada, personal banking Canada net income rose a strong 10% year-over-year, benefiting from 5% operating leverage.

轉向我們的第四季業績，從投影片 15 開始。個人銀行業務報告獲利 16 億美元。專注於加拿大個人銀行業務，淨利潤年增 17%。不包括來自加拿大匯豐銀行的 8,600 萬美元 NIAT，加拿大個人銀行業務淨收入年增 10%，受益於 5% 的營運槓桿。

Organic net interest income was up 9% from last year, reflecting higher spreads and robust volume growth. Organic non-interest income was up 11% year-over-year, underpinned by higher mutual fund distribution fees, including positive branch net sales. Additionally, higher service fee revenue was driven by client acquisition and volume related growth.

有機淨利息收入較去年增長 9%，反映出利差上升和交易量強勁成長。有機非利息收入年增 11%，這得益於共同基金分銷費的上漲，包括分行淨銷售額的成長。此外，客戶獲取和數量相關的成長推動了服務費收入的增加。

Turning to slide 16, commercial banking net income of $774 million, rose 16% from a year ago, including $139 million from HSBC Canada. Pre-provision pre-tax earnings were up 36% or 10% year-over-year, excluding HSBC Canada, reflecting double digit volume growth and higher spreads. Commercial banking's efficiency ratio was 34% this year.

轉向投影片 16，商業銀行淨利為 7.74 億美元，比去年同期成長 16%，其中來自加拿大匯豐銀行的 1.39 億美元。撥備前稅前獲利年增 36% 或 10%（不包括加拿大匯豐銀行），反映了兩位數的交易量成長和更高的利差。今年商業銀行的效率為34%。

Turning to wealth management on slide 17, NIAT was $969 million, with prior year results impacted by legal provisions and impairment losses with respect to our interest in an associated company. We added over $15 billion in net new assets across our North American wealth advisory in global asset management businesses as momentum builds in long term retail mutual fund net sales, driven by both fixed income and equity mandates.

轉向投影片 17 上的財富管理，NIAT 為 9.69 億美元，上一年的業績受到法律規定和與我們在聯營公司的權益有關的減損損失的影響。隨著固定收益和股票委託的推動，長期零售共同基金淨銷售勢頭增強，我們在全球資產管理業務的北美財富諮詢業務中增加了超過 150 億美元的淨新資產。

Higher revenue was partly offset by higher variable compensation. City National generated USD91 million and adjusted earnings this quarter were $102 million, excluding the impact of lease exit costs. This quarter's lease exit cost coupled with the non-core losses taken over the past 12 months are consistent with our efforts to realign City National's path forward, and drive improved profitability of the business.

較高的收入被較高的可變薪酬所部分抵消。City National 本季創造了 9,100 萬美元的收入，調整後收益為 1.02 億美元，不包括租賃退出成本的影響。本季的租賃退出成本加上過去 12 個月的非核心虧損與我們調整 City National 前進道路並推動提高業務獲利能力的努力一致。

Turning to our capital markets results on slide 18, pre-provision pre-tax earnings of $1 billion increased 14% from last year. benefiting from record fourth quarter revenue in both global markets and corporate investment banking. This was partly offset by legal provisions of $93 million taken in the quarter.

轉向投影片 18 的資本市場結果，撥備前稅前盈餘為 10 億美元，較去年成長 14%。受惠於全球市場和企業投資銀行業務第四季創紀錄的收入。這部分被本季提取的 9,300 萬美元的法律撥備所抵消。

Corporate and investment banking revenue was up 9% from last year, reflecting higher debt origination across all regions and higher volumes in lending and securitization financing. Global markets revenue was up 12% from last year, driven by robust client activity in FX trading and debt origination, as well as more favorable spreads in repo financing.

企業和投資銀行業務收入較去年增長 9%，反映出所有地區的債務來源增加以及貸款和證券化融資量增加。在外匯交易和債務發起方面強勁的客戶活動以及回購融資利差更有利的推動下，全球市場收入比去年增長了 12%。

Our equities trading business continues to be impacted by legislative changes to the dividends received deduction. Core results were driven by strong derivative trading and agency commission volumes.

我們的股票交易業務繼續受到股息收入扣除立法變化的影響。核心業績是由強勁的衍生性商品交易和代理佣金量所推動的。

Turning to slide 19, insurance net income of $162 million was up 67% from last year, mainly due to higher insurance service results, primarily driven by business growth across the majority of our products. This was partially offset by less favorable claims experience. It's important to note that the results in the prior year period are not fully comparable as we were not managing our asset and liability portfolios under IFRS 17.

轉向幻燈片 19，保險淨利潤為 1.62 億美元，比去年增長 67%，這主要是由於保險服務業績的提高，而這主要是由我們大多數產品的業務增長推動的。這被不太有利的索賠經歷部分抵消。值得注意的是，上一年的業績不完全可比，因為我們沒有根據 IFRS 17 管理我們的資產和負債組合。

To conclude, we are pleased with the strong performance across our core businesses this year, which underpinned a full year adjusted RoE of 15.5% and on a robust CET1 base of 13.2%. Looking forward, we expect the strong operating momentum to carry into 2025, driving continued improvement in profitability.

總而言之，我們對今年核心業務的強勁表現感到滿意，這支撐了全年調整後 15.5% 的 RoE 和 13.2% 的強勁 CET1 基礎。展望未來，我們預期強勁的經營動能將延續至2025年，推動獲利能力持續改善。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Graeme.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給格雷姆。

Thank you, Katherine, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 21, I will discuss our allowances in the context of the macroeconomic environment. Over the course of 2024, actions taken by central banks to curve inflation have largely been successful. However, the economic impacts of a higher interest rate environment have varied across the core geographies in which we operate.

謝謝凱瑟琳，大家早安。從幻燈片 21 開始，我將在宏觀經濟環境的背景下討論我們的津貼。2024年，各國央行為遏制通膨而採取的行動基本上取得了成功。然而，高利率環境的經濟影響在我們經營所在的核心地區各不相同。

As Dave mentioned earlier, in Canada, economy has been underperforming, and we expect relatively slower growth and weaker labor market to result in the Bank of Canada continuing to cut interest rates more aggressively than the US Federal Reserve.

正如戴夫之前提到的，加拿大經濟一直表現不佳，我們預計相對較慢的成長和疲軟的勞動力市場將導致加拿大央行繼續比聯準會更積極降息。

In the US, GDP growth remained strong, but labor markets have started to show signs of softening, prompting the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates, with focus shifting from managing inflation to managing strength in the labor markets.

在美國，GDP成長依然強勁，但勞動市場開始出現疲軟跡象，促使聯準會開始降息，專注於管理通膨轉向管理勞動市場實力。

Legislative cuts are certainly constructive for credit outcomes. It takes time for the benefits of rate cuts to flow through the economy. Interest rates remain elevated relative to the low rates following the pandemic. Our clients continue to feel the effects of prolonged higher interest rate environment.

立法削減無疑對信貸結果具有建設性作用。降息帶來的好處需要時間才能滲透到經濟中。相對於疫情後的低利率，利率仍然較高。我們的客戶持續感受到長期較高利率環境的影響。

We continue to see net credit downgrades, moderate increase in delinquency rates, and watch list exposure and drawdowns in savings and deposits for clients impacted by higher rates. These outcomes are in line with our expectations for where we are in the credit cycle, and we continue to build allowances that provide strong coverage relative to current and anticipated PCL on impaired loans.

我們繼續看到淨信用評級被下調，拖欠率適度上升，以及受利率上升影響的客戶的儲蓄和存款的觀察名單敞口和提款。這些結果符合我們對信貸週期所處位置的預期，我們將繼續建立準備金，為受損貸款的當前和預期 PCL 提供強有力的保障。

For the quarter, we took a total of $208 million of provisions on performing loans across our portfolios, reflecting unfavorable changes to credit quality, including the downgrade of a large exposure to a previously investment grade rated company in the other services sector.

本季度，我們為整個投資組合的履約貸款提取了總計 2.08 億美元的撥備，反映了信貸品質的不利變化，包括對其他服務業先前投資級評級公司的大量風險敞口的下調。

This was partially offset by a favorable change to our macroeconomic forecast, driven by lower interest rates, better than expected house prices and the continued strength of the US economy. This marks the 10th consecutive quarter where we added reserves on performing loans, resulting in a total ACL of $6.4 billion.

由於利率下降、房價優於預期以及美國經濟持續強勁，我們的宏觀經濟預測發生了有利的變化，部分抵消了這一影響。這標誌著我們連續第十個季度增加履約貸款準備金，ACL 總額達到 64 億美元。

Moving to slide 22, gross impaired loans of $5.9 billion were up $182 million or 1 basis point this quarter. Higher impaired loan balances in commercial banking and personal banking were partially offset by lower gross impaired loans in capital markets and wealth management.

轉向投影片 22，本季減損貸款總額為 59 億美元，增加了 1.82 億美元，即 1 個基點。商業銀行和個人銀行業務減損貸款餘額的增加被資本市場和財富管理業務減損貸款總額的減少部分抵銷。

In commercial banking and personal banking, new formations remain elevated, reflecting the weaker economic conditions in Canada compared to the US that I noted earlier.

在商業銀行和個人銀行業務中，新成立的銀行數量仍然很高，這反映出與我之前提到的美國相比，加拿大的經濟狀況較弱。

Turning to slide 23, you can see provisions on impaired loans of 26 basis points were relatively stable, with higher provisions in our Canadian portfolios offset by lower provisions in capital markets. In capital markets, losses decreased for the third consecutive quarter, with the current quarter's provisions benefiting from recoveries on previously impaired loans. While this trend is encouraging, we don't expect losses to remain this low.

轉向投影片 23，您可以看到 26 個基點的減損貸款準備金相對穩定，我們加拿大投資組合中較高的準備金被資本市場較低的準備金所抵銷。在資本市場，損失連續第三個季度減少，本季的撥備受益於先前減損貸款的收回。雖然這一趨勢令人鼓舞，但我們預期損失不會維持在這麼低的水平。

In personal banking, we saw a modest increase in PCL, mainly in our unsecured portfolios. Our sound underwriting standards and rising personal incomes have helped mitigate losses in this segment.

在個人銀行業務方面，我們看到 PCL 略有成長，主要是在我們的無擔保投資組合中。我們良好的承保標準和不斷增長的個人收入有助於減輕該領域的損失。

In our commercial banking portfolio, provisions were up $55 million this quarter, principally from borrowers and economically sensitive sectors. We took additional provisions on previously impaired loans in the automotive and core product sectors, and new provisions in the consumer discretionary and industrial product sectors.

在我們的商業銀行投資組合中，本季準備金增加了 5,500 萬美元，主要來自借款人和經濟敏感產業。我們對汽車和核心產品產業先前減損的貸款追加了撥備，並對非必需消費品和工業產品產業採取了新的撥備。

Given the resegmentation, we provided some additional details on our commercial banking portfolio on slide 24. This is a well secured and highly diversified portfolio that represents a wide spectrum of borrowers across Canada, ranging from small businesses to the large commercial real estate developers and public sector agencies.

鑑於重新細分，我們在投影片 24 上提供了有關商業銀行投資組合的一些額外詳細資訊。這是一個安全性良好且高度多元化的投資組合，代表了加拿大各地的廣泛借款人，從小型企業到大型商業房地產開發商和公共部門機構。

Over the last year the portfolio has grown 36%, largely driven by the HSBC Canada acquisition, but also through a focused effort on the upper end of the commercial market. After a prolonged period of loan losses, the segment is now exhibiting some weakness with increased impairments that reflect the macroeconomic challenges in Canada I referenced earlier.

去年，該投資組合成長了 36%，這主要得益於加拿大匯豐銀行的收購，同時也得益於對高端商業市場的集中努力。經過長期的貸款損失後，該部門現在表現出一些弱點，減損增加，這反映了我之前提到的加拿大宏觀經濟挑戰。

As shown on the slide, consumer discretionary, the office segment of commercial real estate, forest products and the supply chain sectors such as automotive, transportation, and industrial products have been the main drivers of loan losses in 2024.

如幻燈片所示，非必需消費品、商業房地產的辦公部門、林產品以及汽車、交通和工業產品等供應鏈部門是2024年貸款損失的主要驅動因素。

Overall, the portfolio continues to operate in line with our risk appetite. The addition of HSBC Canada has added to the quality and diversification of the portfolio that will further support strong through the cycle performance.

整體而言，該投資組合持續符合我們的風險偏好。加拿大匯豐銀行的加入提高了投資組合的品質和多元化，這將進一步支持整個週期的強勁表現。

To conclude, we are pleased with the ongoing performance of our portfolios. For the year, our PCL on impaired loans ratio of 28 basis points remained below our historical loss rate, and slightly outperformed the guidance I provided last fall of 30 to 35 basis points.

總而言之，我們對我們投資組合的持續表現感到滿意。今年，我們的 PCL 減損貸款比率為 28 個基點，仍低於我們的歷史損失率，略好於我去年秋天提供的 30 至 35 個基點的指導。

Our strong credit performance reflects our diversified business model, our prudent underwriting practices and the quality of our clients. We continue to see strong resilience in our retail mortgage and commercial real estate portfolios, with some payment relief expected from anticipated interest rate cuts in Canada.

我們強勁的信用表現反映了我們多元化的業務模式、審慎的核保實踐以及客戶的品質。我們繼續看到我們的零售抵押貸款和商業房地產投資組合具有強勁的彈性，預計加拿大的降息可能會帶來一些付款減免。

And this year, we added a total of $627 million of provisions on performing loans, leaving us well prepared for the risk on the horizon, whether they may be geopolitical risks, uncertain outcomes for the recent US election, or surprises to our interest rate and inflation rate forecast.

今年，我們總共增加了6.27 億美元的履約貸款撥備，使我們為即將到來的風險做好了充分準備，無論這些風險是地緣政治風險、最近美國大選的不確定結果，還是我們的利率和利率的意外變化。

In 2025, we expect the Canadian economy to continue softening, with GDP and population growth slowing, and unemployment rates peaking in the first half of the year. The lag impact from monetary policy decisions, and that we expect unemployment rates to remain elevated through the middle of 2026. Therefore, in basis points, we are forecasting 2025 credit losses to be in the mid-30s, with peak loss rates coming in the second half of the year.

2025年，我們預期加拿大經濟將持續疲軟，GDP和人口成長放緩，失業率將在上半年見頂。貨幣政策決策的滯後影響，以及我們預期失業率將在 2026 年中期維持在高位。因此，以基點計算，我們預計 2025 年信貸損失將在 30 多歲左右，損失率高峰將在下半年出現。

Moving forward, credit outcomes will continue to be dependent on the magnitude of change in unemployment rates, the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates, in commercial and residential real estate prices.

展望未來，信貸結果將繼續取決於失業率變化的幅度、利率、商業和住宅房地產價格變化的方向和幅度。

As always, we continue to proactively manage risk through the cycle, and we remain well capitalized to withstand plausible yet more severe macroeconomic outcomes. And with that operator, let's open the lines for Q&A.

一如既往，我們繼續在整個週期中主動管理風險，並且我們仍然擁有充足的資本來承受可能但更嚴峻的宏觀經濟結果。讓我們透過該接線員打開問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

（操作員指令）Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

Good morning. I guess, maybe just to start with Dave, I think you talked about the RoE and you laid out on slide 6. Now this in a context where Royal has one of the best RoEs among global banks period. But how should we think about that 16% plus RoE in the context of where the capital requirements are today? Is that 16% plus aspirational? Or as a shareholder, do I expect Royal to be delivering a 16% RoE year in and year out on a consistent basis as we look forward?

早安.我想，也許從 Dave 開始，我想您談到了 RoE，並且在幻燈片 6 上進行了闡述。現在，皇家銀行擁有全球銀行業中最佳的股本回報率之一。但在當今資本要求的背景下，我們應該如何看待 16% 以上的 RoE？16% 以上是理想的嗎？或者作為股東，我是否期望 Royal 能夠像我們預期的那樣，年復一年地實現 16% 的 RoE？

Yeah, thanks Ebrahim for that question because this is obviously an important piece of our investor thesis, and we are committed to delivering that, and we are confident of delivering that. And I would say it's not aspirational at all.

是的，感謝易卜拉欣提出這個問題，因為這顯然是我們投資者論文的重要組成部分，我們致力於實現這一目標，並且我們有信心實現這一目標。我想說這根本不是一個願望。

It's very tactical right now. We've got a number of initiatives that we've laid out that we think we can get there without further capital deployment, whether that's HSBC or improving profitability at City National quite significantly as we've talked about.

現在是非常有戰術性的。我們已經提出了許多舉措，我們認為無需進一步的資本部署就可以實現這一目標，無論是匯豐銀行還是像我們所討論的那樣顯著提高城市國家的盈利能力。

So when we look through the headwinds we have, but also all the initiatives that we have in the pipeline, that we feel we can balance that to long term and medium term delivery of 16%-plus ROE. It's the scale we have as well to deploy across our client scale, brand scale, balance sheet scale, all that allows us.

因此，當我們審視我們面臨的不利因素以及我們正在醞釀的所有舉措時，我們認為我們可以在長期和中期實現 16% 以上的 ROE 之間取得平衡。我們也擁有在客戶規模、品牌規模、資產負債表規模等方面進行部署的規模。

So we are confident it's a big part of our plan. We've tactical plans to get there as well. So very much -- we wouldn't state it as confidently as we did, unless we thought we were going to deliver it.

所以我們相信這是我們計劃的重要組成部分。我們也有實現這一目標的戰術計劃。所以非常--我們不會像以前那樣自信地陳述它，除非我們認為我們會交付它。

Got it. And the other side of that there is capital is at 13.2% CET1, stocks at 2 times price to book. Not sure what your effort is to buy back stock. Just give us a sense like organically can you deploy this capital? And if not, in the past, you've talked about wealth M&A, North America, global. Like what does that opportunity set look like as we think about capital deployment over the next year?

知道了。另一方面，資本的 CET1 為 13.2%，股票價格為帳面價的 2 倍。不確定您回購股票的努力是什麼。只是讓我們有一種感覺，例如你能有機地部署這筆資本嗎？如果沒有，過去您談論過財富併購、北美、全球。當我們考慮明年的資本部署時，這個機會集是什麼樣的？

So I do view returning capital to shareholders as an important part of the overall investment thesis, and part of the tactical tool set to maintain and drive a 16%-plus RoE. So it's part of an overall set of initiatives, but our first priority and we see really good opportunity with building pipelines and commercial and building pipelines and capital markets to deploy that organically into RWA growth and loan growth.

因此，我確實認為向股東返還資本是整體投資主題的重要組成部分，也是維持和推動 16% 以上 RoE 的戰術工具集的一部分。因此，這是一整套舉措的一部分，但我們的首要任務是，我們看到了建造管道和商業、建造管道和資本市場的良好機會，將其有機地部署到 RWA 成長和貸款成長中。

So I think, first and foremost, we can deploy it at a very good RoE and hurdle RoE into those growth areas. So I think that would be our choice first and foremost. But buying back shares and returning capital, you'll see us continue to manage a cadence of doing that as well.

因此，我認為，首先也是最重要的是，我們可以以非常好的 RoE 部署它，並將 RoE 限制在這些成長領域。所以我認為這將是我們首先的選擇。但回購股票和返還資本，你會看到我們也繼續管理這樣做的節奏。

We have significant capital building above 12.5% as we measure that for $5 billion-plus of capital. We're good stewards of capital, and we will steward that capital with the goal of a 16%-plus RoE and premium EPS growth.

我們的資本建設顯著超過 12.5%（以超過 50 億美元的資本衡量）。我們是優秀的資本管理者，我們將以 16% 以上的 RoE 和溢價 EPS 成長為目標來管理這些資本。

And we'll find the right mix, and the strength of our franchise allows us many different ways to achieve that organically through share buybacks, returning capital, dividends. And if it makes sense, we are always on a lookout for a strategic non-organic, inorganic opportunity to create value in our US wealth franchise, our US commercial banking franchise over time, we'll do that. So certainly, all those tools remain and the strong capital generation ability gives us that strategic optionality.

我們會找到正確的組合，我們的特許經營權的優勢使我們能夠透過多種不同的方式透過股票回購、資本返還和股息來有機地實現這一目標。如果有意義的話，我們一直在尋找策略性的非有機、無機的機會，以便隨著時間的推移，為我們的美國財富特許經營權和我們的美國商業銀行特許經營權創造價值，我們會這樣做。因此，當然，所有這些工具仍然存在，強大的資本產生能力為我們提供了策略選擇。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

John Aiken, Jefferies.

約翰艾肯，傑弗里斯。

Good morning. Graeme, I understand your commentary on the macro, completely on side with that. But one of the things that's standing out this quarter is the ongoing uptick in terms of residential mortgage impairments.

早安.格雷姆，我理解你對宏觀的評論，完全同意這一點。但本季最引人注目的事情之一是住宅抵押貸款減損持續上升。

I was hoping we could get underneath the hood on that a little bit, particularly with when we take a look at what's been going on in terms of the mortgage. The past due has seen a steady incline over the last couple of quarters, where we've seen a bit of a more mixed approach with some of the other consumer lending products.

我希望我們能夠深入了解這一點，特別是當我們了解抵押貸款方面的情況時。過去幾個季度，逾期貸款穩步上升，我們看到其他一些消費貸款產品採取了更複雜的做法。

Can you give us a sense in terms of what you're seeing in terms of residential mortgage market? What's causing the increase in impairments? And hopefully, some sort of outlook in terms of what you expect through 2025 on residential mortgage in terms of credit quality?

您能為我們介紹一下您對住宅房貸市場的看法嗎？是什麼原因導致減損增加？希望您對 2025 年住宅抵押貸款信貸品質的預期有某種展望嗎？

Yeah, sure John, thanks. Thanks for that question. I think for exactly that reason we provided a slide there, an update that kind of speaks to the period we're heading into right now, which is 2025 and into 2026 is really this peak renewal period.

是的，當然，約翰，謝謝。謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為正是出於這個原因，我們在那裡提供了一張幻燈片，該更新說明了我們現在即將進入的時期，即 2025 年，而進入 2026 年實際上是這個更新高峰期。

And I think that's really the fundamental driver here as we see more of our now fixed rate clients. We saw earlier the wave of variable rate clients being hit by the higher rates, and that kind of impact was a bit more instantaneous.

我認為這確實是根本驅動因素，因為我們現在看到越來越多的固定利率客戶。我們早些時候看到浮動利率客戶受到更高利率的衝擊，這種影響更加瞬時。

We're now seeing that wave really begin, where our fixed rate clients that many of those certainly that put the original mortgage in place back at the low rates of the cycle are now going through that refinancing and being impacted by higher rates. So that is going to drive delinquencies, and we expect that to kind of trend up in the coming quarters and overall this year.

我們現在看到這一浪潮真正開始了，我們的固定利率客戶中的許多人肯定以週期的低利率恢復了原始抵押貸款，現在正在經歷再融資並受到更高利率的影響。因此，這將導致拖欠率上升，我們預計未來幾季以及今年整體拖欠率將呈上升趨勢。

Having said that, with rates now starting to come down a little bit, I think we certainly feel better about that risk and the tail risk there than maybe a year ago when we were at peak levels. But overall, I think our clients are very well positioned to kind of manage through that.

話雖如此，隨著利率現在開始略有下降，我認為我們對這種風險和尾部風險的感覺肯定比一年前處於高峰時更好。但總的來說，我認為我們的客戶非常有能力解決這個問題。

And so despite the fact that we're seeing impairments tick up, we're not really seeing that translate through right now to material write-offs. The reason why our PCL was so low this quarter is that we really assessed our what we call our coverage ratio, which is really the provisioning we put in place for newly impaired mortgage loans, and we kind of reassessed that annually.

因此，儘管我們看到減損有所增加，但我們目前並沒有真正看到這種情況轉化為重大沖銷。本季我們的 PCL 如此之低的原因是，我們確實評估了我們所謂的覆蓋率，這實際上是我們為新減損抵押貸款撥備的撥備，而且我們每年都會重新評估。

And last year as we were taking a very prudent approach, expecting a softer housing market going into this refinancing period. But what we're seeing is that's what we highlight in that slide. Most of these clients have a lot of good equity in their home, and so they have a lot of options. And so the workouts have proved quite strong. And so we readjusted our coverage ratios there.

去年，我們採取了非常謹慎的態度，預計房地產市場將在再融資期間走軟。但我們看到的是我們在幻燈片中強調的內容。這些客戶中的大多數都擁有大量良好的房屋淨值，因此他們有很多選擇。事實證明，這些訓練非常有效。因此我們重新調整了那裡的覆蓋率。

I think we're still taking a prudent approach, and we'll continue to work and support with our clients on that. So overall, I think we'll expect impairments to tick up. There will be some PCL that comes with that, but we certainly don't see that to be, let's say, as big a driver into 2025 as the unsecured products, which is again, I think what we've been calling out for some time.

我認為我們仍然採取謹慎的態度，我們將繼續與客戶合作並為此提供支援。總的來說，我認為我們預計減損將會增加。隨之而來的是一些 PCL，但我們當然不認為它會像無擔保產品一樣成為 2025 年的重要推動力，我認為這也是我們一直在呼籲的一些產品時間。

So Graeme, the reversal of stage two provisions that we saw in the quarter on residential mortgages obviously not expected to continue moving forward. We should see some level of more normal PCLs for 2025.

因此，格雷姆，我們在本季看到的住宅抵押貸款第二階段條款的逆轉顯然預計不會繼續推進。到 2025 年，我們應該會看到一定程度的更正常的 PCL。

Yeah, right. This quarter, there was a kind of a one-time hit as we reset our coverage ratio. So that released some of the provisions that we've previously put in place, and we don't think we need that level on the back book like we did.

是的，對。本季度，當我們重置覆蓋率時，出現了一次性的打擊。因此，我們發布了一些我們之前製定的條款，我們認為我們不需要像我們一樣在書底上添加該級別。

And then going forward, that new rate will be applied to kind of new impaired levels. So I think if you back that out, you're probably back into something a bit more reflective of where we will be in the near term.

然後，新的利率將適用於新的受損水準。所以我認為，如果你放棄這一點，你可能會回到更能反映我們近期狀況的事情。

Fantastic. Thanks Graeme. I'll requeue.

極好的。謝謝格雷姆。我再排隊吧

Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

楊（Doug Young），加鼎資本市場部。

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to go back to the RoE discussion because by my math, it's really difficult to get the cash RoE to breach 16% plus without bringing the CET1 ratio down to 12.5% or lower. But it sounds like you would disagree with this.

嗨，早安。只是想回到 RoE 討論，因為根據我的數學計算，如果不將 CET1 比率降至 12.5% 或更低，就很難讓現金 RoE 突破 16% 以上。但聽起來你不同意這一點。

But I guess I'd like to hear more about what -- like what are two to three drivers that would help push you towards that target if you are going to sit at a 13% CET1 ratio. Just trying to get a little bit more detail.

但我想我想聽到更多關於什麼——例如如果你的 CET1 比率要達到 13%，那麼兩到三個驅動因素將有助於推動你實現這一目標。只是想了解更多細節。

Yes. You know, fair question. And as we go through all our levers, certainly as we think about the remaining cost takeouts from HSBC and the opportunity to improve profitability there towards our targeted levels, we've only taken out $4 million out of $750 million of cost. We haven't even talked about revenue synergies, and a lot of that might not require capital to deploy to do it if it's on the wealth side and the cross sell into wealth.

是的。你知道，這是公平的問題。當我們使用所有槓桿時，當然，當我們考慮匯豐銀行剩餘的成本支出以及提高盈利能力以達到我們的目標水平的機會時，我們只從 7.5 億美元的成本中支出了 400 萬美元。我們甚至還沒有討論收入協同效應，如果它是在財富方面並且交叉銷售到財富方面，那麼其中許多可能不需要部署資本來實現。

If you look at the CNB and the opportunities to be much more efficient, there are a lot of the charges we're taking in CNB are to simplify the business and improve operations, which requires a simpler risk regime, a simpler operation regime, an oversight mechanism, that's fair. That's easier to manage over time and more flexible.

如果你看看 CNB 和提高效率的機會，我們在 CNB 收取的很多費用都是為了簡化業務和改善運營，這需要更簡單的風險制度、更簡單的運營製度、監督機制，公平。隨著時間的推移，這更容易管理，也更靈活。

So as we significantly streamline City National, and look to improve horizontally across the business, and leverage RBC to a greater degree, there's real opportunities for us there on the cost base without even deploying. Then there is growth opportunities in City National that we're waiting to get to. We have to certainly build a better operational infrastructure, and we're well on our way to doing that.

因此，當我們大幅精簡 City National，並尋求在整個業務中橫向改進，並更大程度地利用 RBC 時，我們在成本基礎上就有了真正的機會，甚至無需部署。然後，我們正在等待國家城市的成長機會。我們當然必須建立更好的營運基礎設施，而且我們正在努力做到這一點。

And we're in -- we peaked in our expenses there, and their expenses will start to come down in 2025 and well into '26 as we do that. So those are two very large areas. We've got the net movement and flows as you started to see in Q4 from deposits and GICs into our wealth franchise.

我們在那裡的支出達到了頂峰，他們的支出將在 2025 年開始下降，並在我們這樣做時進入 26 年。所以這是兩個非常大的區域。正如您在第四季度開始看到的那樣，我們已經看到從存款和擔保投資證到我們的財富特許經營權的淨流動和流量。

And therefore, we've seen expansion of NIMs without the use of capital to do that. And therefore, that secular trend is very accretive when we're great at capturing those flows, and we highlighted that in our comments, in the prepared comments.

因此，我們看到淨利差的擴張並未使用資本來做到這一點。因此，當我們善於捕捉這些流動時，這種長期趨勢會非常有利，並且我們在我們的評論中，在準備好的評論中強調了這一點。

So those are three areas that, and we have great capital accretion that we're going to continue to drive. And therefore, we will have capital to deploy into share buybacks as well as a fourth tool. And when you look at all that, our plans don't require us to go down to 12.5% if we can do that, it's a mix of tools.

因此，這三個領域是我們將持續推動的龐大資本增值。因此，我們將有資金用於股票回購以及第四種工具。當你看到這一切時，我們的計劃並不要求我們降低到 12.5%（如果我們能做到的話），這是工具的組合。

And if we execute on that, we have enormous flexibility, an enormous ways of getting to 16%-plus. And there lies our confidence.

如果我們執行這一點，我們就有巨大的靈活性，有多種方法可以達到 16% 以上。這就是我們的信心。

Okay. And then just going back to the second question, just I think last quarter, you talked about potentially providing revenue synergies from HSBC Canada in a few months. I know you didn't mention that you were going to provide it that maybe you'd provide it in the foreseeable future.

好的。然後回到第二個問題，我認為上個季度，您談到了可能在幾個月內從加拿大匯豐銀行提供收入協同效應。我知道您沒有提到您將提供它，也許您會在可預見的將來提供它。

But can you provide any details today because it seems like that's obviously an important part of even the RoE expansion as you just mentioned. Like any further details that you can provide on that front?

但您今天能否提供任何細節，因為這似乎顯然是您剛才提到的 RoE 擴展的重要組成部分。您可以在這方面提供更多詳細資訊嗎？

We are preparing a more fulsome disclosure for you with targets and timelines. But from a qualitative perspective, maybe I'll go to Sean and Erica to talk about the qualitative aspects. But we are very close to giving you targets and timelines, but not today.

我們正在為您準備一份更詳細的揭露，其中包含目標和時間表。但從定性的角度來看，也許我會去找 Sean 和 Erica 談談定性的方面。但我們非常接近為您提供目標和時間表，但不是今天。

Great. Thanks, Dave. And I appreciate the question. A couple of things I would say as it relates to our HSBC synergies in the personal bank, I think we continue to feel confident in the underlying levers of growth. And so what are the key things we're looking at?

偉大的。謝謝，戴夫。我很欣賞這個問題。我想說的幾件事與我們匯豐銀行在個人銀行的協同效應有關，我認為我們仍然對潛在的成長槓桿充滿信心。那我們關注的關鍵是什麼？

One, I'm looking and tracking how we performing on clients and our client retention rates. And I think we feel very confident they're performing better than we expected. And when we dissect that down, and look at our mass affluent and affluent clients in that base to drive the majority of the profitability. Retention rates are exceptionally strong for us.

第一，我正在尋找並追蹤我們對客戶的表現以及我們的客戶保留率。我認為我們非常有信心他們的表現比我們預期的要好。當我們深入剖析這一點，看看我們的大眾富裕和富裕客戶在這個基礎上推動了大部分盈利能力。我們的保留率非常高。

The second thing we look at is the productivity of our sales advisers to drive growth in the franchise of those clients. And you know, post the cut over weekend, we saw our advisers continue strength in coming up to the productivity levels that we expect.

我們關注的第二件事是我們的銷售顧問的生產力，以推動這些客戶的特許經營成長。你知道，在周末削減之後，我們看到我們的顧問在達到我們預期的生產力水平方面繼續保持優勢。

So now we look at those new advisers, sales folks who have joined us as being equally as productive as our RBC advisers, which give us confidence that underlying strength will be there when we think about revenue synergies.

因此，現在我們看到那些加入我們的新顧問、銷售人員與我們的 RBC 顧問一樣高效，這讓我們相信，當我們考慮收​​入協同效應時，潛在的優勢將會存在。

And then we look at how are we retaining the balances and volume in the business? And I think we continue to feel good about retention. We would see that there is some co-mingling of the HSBC balances into our RBC balances.

然後我們看看我們如何保持業務的餘額和數量？我認為我們對保留率繼續感到滿意。我們將看到匯豐銀行的餘額與我們的加拿大皇家銀行的餘額混合在一起。

So what does that mean? A client walks into a branch to renew a GIC or renew a mortgage. If that branch is an existing RBC branch, then those volumes get commingled into the RBC volumes. And so when we look at the client level, we look at our retention of clients and the balances that we are keeping, we feel confident that our revenue synergies are well on track.

那麼這意味著什麼呢？客戶走進分行更新擔保投資證明或更新房貸。如果該分支是現有的 RBC 分支，則這些磁碟區將混合到 RBC 磁碟區中。因此，當我們考慮客戶層面、客戶保留率和維持的平衡時，我們相信我們的收入綜效正在順利進行。

Sean?

肖恩？

Sure. Thanks and thanks for the question, Doug. On the commercial side, relatively consistent messages. I'd say first and foremost, our priority has been on adviser and client retention. And so far we are -- our retention is above our expectations, which is very positive.

當然。謝謝你的提問，道格。在商業方面，資訊相對一致。我想說，首先也是最重要的是，我們的首要任務是保留顧問和客戶。到目前為止，我們的保留率超出了我們的預期，這是非常積極的。

Maybe another piece of context with respect to the commercial portfolio is that we're also in the final stages of completing a TSA that we had in place for the larger and more complex integrations. And so that's been the focus of our team, kind of stabilization retention, and completing that TSA migration.

也許與商業產品組合相關的另一個背景是，我們也處於完成 TSA 的最後階段，我們為更大規模、更複雜的整合製定了 TSA。因此，保持穩定並完成 TSA 遷移一直是我們團隊的重點。

Directionally on the revenue synergies, we're looking at three primary drivers in addition to better than planned retention, we're starting to see very robust pipelines build. So that team has been focusing on their existing client base and that client base now, and the team is really leveraging the benefit and the strength of the RBC franchise, particularly our balance sheet, really supportive of the client growth.

在收入協同效應方面，除了比計劃更好的保留率之外，我們還著眼於三個主要驅動因素，我們開始看到非常強大的管道建設。因此，該團隊一直專注於現有的客戶群和現在的客戶群，而該團隊真正利用了 RBC 特許經營權的利益和實力，特別是我們的資產負債表，真正支持客戶的成長。

And so those pipelines are really starting to pick up. Given the portfolio does skew to larger commercial and corporate clients, this is a longer sale cycle. So we're starting to see some of that pipeline materialize in the balance sheet in the late stages of Q4 this year-end. And so we're excited about that going forward as well.

因此，這些管道確實開始復甦。鑑於該投資組合確實偏向於較大的商業和企業客戶，因此銷售週期較長。因此，我們開始看到一些管道在今年年底第四季末在資產負債表中實現。因此，我們也對未來的發展感到興奮。

The second area would be cross sell to existing RBC clients. As you know, we've made pretty considerable investments in new products that were important to HSBC clients like global cash management capabilities, liquidity solutions, trade products, et cetera, we're going to start to cross sell those to our existing client base next year.

第二個領域是向現有加拿大皇家銀行客戶進行交叉銷售。如您所知，我們已經在對匯豐客戶很重要的新產品上進行了大量投資，例如全球現金管理能力、流動性解決方案、貿易產品等，我們將開始向現有客戶群交叉銷售這些產品明年。

And the third is when you combine the kind of the value propositions of both organizations, we see strong opportunities for client acquisition. In fact, to date, we've acquired about 3,500 new small business accounts well above our expectations where those clients have been less impacted by the TSA.

第三，當你結合兩個組織的價值主張時，我們看到了一個獲得客戶的巨大機會。事實上，迄今為止，我們已經獲得了約 3,500 個新的小型企業帳戶，遠遠超出了我們的預期，這些客戶受 TSA 的影響較小。

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

欣賞顏色。謝謝。

Meny Grauman, Scotiabank.

梅尼·格勞曼，豐業銀行。

Hi, good morning. I'm trying to assess the outlook for next year specifically for your Canadian P&C business and putting all the pieces together. As you're talking, the impression that I'm getting is pretty negative, and I just wanted to check if I'm missing anything, especially on the more constructive side.

嗨，早安。我正在嘗試專門評估你們加拿大財產與意外傷害業務明年的前景，並將所有內容放在一起。正如你所說，我得到的印象非常負面，我只是想檢查一下我是否遺漏了任何東西，特別是在更具建設性的方面。

You're talking about rising unemployment, population growth slowing, potential for tariffs, competitive dynamics, and you've talked about that for a while. They're tough, maybe getting tougher. So trying to understand as you think about next year, more big picture, it sounds pretty negative. So I wanted to give you a chance to respond to see if there's anything there on the plus side that I'm missing.

你談論的是失業率上升、人口成長放緩、關稅潛力、競爭動態，你已經談論了一段時間了。他們很堅強，也許會變得更堅強。因此，當你思考明年的更大前景時，試著理解這一點，這聽起來相當消極。所以我想給你一個機會來回應，看看是否有我所遺漏的優點。

Well, that certainly was not our intent today. So I think the tone you're hearing maybe on the credit side is we are cautious, but optimistic, right So we're trying -- we don't see anything idiosyncratic with RBC. We're just trying to make you a systemic call.

嗯，這當然不是我們今天的意圖。所以我認為你在信用方面聽到的語氣可能是我們謹慎但樂觀，對吧所以我們正在努力 - 我們沒有看到 RBC 有任何特殊之處。我們只是想打個系統電話給你。

That's we're just a little uncertain as to how we're going to land this thing, whether it's in the first half or second half of the year or early into '26. But it's nothing that we're seeing idiosyncratic with RBC. I think based on the conversations that we questions we just answered that we're really bullish on the business.

我們只是有點不確定如何實現這個目標，無論是在今年上半年、下半年或 26 年初。但我們並沒有看到 RBC 有何特別之處。我認為根據我們剛剛回答的問題的對話，我們真的看好這項業務。

We're seeing growth that we just talked about that we can invest in the commercial capital markets and consumer side. So we're going to use our capital to invest in RWA in growth, loan growth. So I think that's really positive. We're not holding back. We see great opportunities. We're really excited about our wealth franchise, and ability to capture money in motion, and increase margin, and increase profitability.

我們看到我們剛才談到的成長，我們可以投資商業資本市場和消費者方面。因此，我們將利用我們的資本投資於成長、貸款成長的 RWA。所以我認為這非常積極。我們不會退縮。我們看到了巨大的機會。我們對我們的財富特許經營權以及捕捉流動資金、增加利潤和提高盈利能力的能力感到非常興奮。

We had 26% growth in Canada and wealth and in a UA, and 23% growth in the United States, and we're continuing to some of that was obviously market growth, but we're seeing the flows are just starting to build again. So we feel really good about the wealth side as well.

我們在加拿大、財富和UA方面成長了26%，在美國成長了23%，我們正在繼續其中一些明顯的市場成長，但我們看到流量剛開始再次增加。所以我們對財富方面也感覺很好。

And you know, the consumer bank benefits from that flow as well in there. So maybe you're hearing a bit of a cautious forecast, but we're not changing our forecast. We're still 30 to 35 basis points from this year. We're just going to kind of wait things out, but we're investing for growth is the message that we're trying to deliver. So maybe we didn't do as well in getting that, but I don't think you should take that away at all that we feel negative about the economy or the business.

你知道，消費者銀行也從那裡的流動中受益。因此，也許您聽到的預測有些謹慎，但我們不會改變我們的預測。距離今年仍有 30 至 35 個基點。我們只是要等待事情結束，但我們正在為成長進行投資，這是我們試圖傳達的訊息。因此，也許我們在這方面做得不夠好，但我認為你不應該因為我們對經濟或商業感到消極而忽略這一點。

Okay, I just wanted to check, and then maybe just as a follow-up just in terms of tariffs, obviously a big question mark, it has macro implications. But does that question mark change how you manage the bank in any way in terms of capital allocation, in terms of underwriting? Does it have any implications right now?

好吧，我只是想檢查一下，然後也許只是作為關稅方面的後續行動，顯然是一個很大的問號，它具有宏觀影響。但是，這個問號是否會改變您在資本配置和承銷方面以任何方式管理銀行的方式？現在有什麼影響嗎？

No, I think it's important not to overreact, I think is the most important message that this was a strong message that we have to improve certain aspects of our operations in Canada around our borders. And there are other ways of solving that without hurting both economies, the Canadian economy and the US economy.

不，我認為重要的是不要反應過度，我認為這是最重要的訊息，這是一個強烈的訊息，即我們必須改善我們在加拿大邊境地區業務的某些方面。還有其他方法可以解決這個問題，而不會損害加拿大經濟和美國經濟。

And I expect our political leaders to find a better path to do that. And therefore, the key is not to overreact right now. And therefore, no, we're not making any major changes on our business plans or our credit strategy because we expect this to get resolved in an appropriate way.

我希望我們的政治領袖能夠找到更好的途徑來做到這一點。因此，現在關鍵是不要反應過度。因此，不，我們不會對我們的業務計劃或信貸策略做出任何重大改變，因為我們希望這個問題能夠以適當的方式解決。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets.

Sohrab Movahedi，BMO 資本市場。

Okay, thank you. I wanted to go to maybe Derek. There the risk capital with your business is grinding higher, and I think Dave in his opening remarks talked about I think lending related type opportunities for your bank or for your segment of the business.

好的，謝謝。我想去德瑞克那裡。你的業務的風險資本正在上升，我認為戴夫在他的開場白中談到了我認為為你的銀行或你的業務部門提供貸款相關類型的機會。

Can you just talk a little bit about where you think how much capital you think you need for the type of target they have on your back? And whether or not that is going to be overall accretive to the RoE of the bank or neutral?

您能簡單談談您認為您需要多少資金來應對他們所支持的目標類型嗎？這是否會整體增加銀行的股本回報率或中性？

Sure, thanks Sohrab. So let me just break that down into two parts. I think one, just your question around the increase in our risk capital. I would just flag, part of the increase in the capital you're seeing this year was the change in capital attribution we implemented, reflecting a balance of RWA and leverage, that did put more capital into the business.

當然，謝謝索拉博。所以讓我把它分成兩個部分。我認為第一，就是你關於增加我們創投的問題。我只想指出，今年您看到的資本增加的一部分是我們實施的資本歸屬的變化，反映了 RWA 和槓桿的平衡，這確實為業務注入了更多資本。

From a risk perspective though, we actually feel our risk appetite is unchanged. And if anything if you look at our RWA to leverage risk density over the last number of years that we've been executing on the strategy, it's actually come down.

但從風險角度來看，我們實際上認為我們的風險偏好並沒有改變。如果你看看我們過去幾年執行該策略的 RWA 來利用風險密度，你會發現它實際上有所下降。

So we're very pleased that we've been able to drive the growth in earnings and the improvement in RoE and capital markets without in any way compromising or stretching on the risk side. And that continues to be how we are approaching the business.

因此，我們非常高興能夠在不以任何方式損害或擴大風險的情況下推動收益成長以及股本回報率和資本市場的改善。這仍然是我們開展業務的方式。

In terms of your question sort of how much capital do we need? Obviously, the strategy in cap markets that we've been focused on has really been driving accelerated growth in our non-lending or fee based businesses, but still supporting clients with obviously the capital they need to execute on their strategies.

就你的問題而言，我們需要多少資金？顯然，我們一直關注的資本市場策略確實推動了我們的非貸款或收費業務的加速成長，但仍為客戶提供執行策略所需的資本支持。

And we've over a cycle, we've indicated, we're targeting sort of 4% to 5% growth in the balance sheet businesses. And when we look back, we're very pleased with how that strategy has unfolded because it's allowed us to not only meet our growth targets, but it has allowed us to notably improve the RoE in capital markets, which continues to be an important focus given the comments Dave has been through on the 16% plus objective for the bank.

我們已經表示，我們已經過了一個週期，我們的目標是資產負債表業務成長 4% 到 5%。當我們回顧過去時，我們對這項策略的進展感到非常滿意，因為它不僅使我們能夠實現成長目標，而且使我們能夠顯著提高資本市場的 RoE，這仍然是一個重要的焦點考慮到Dave 對銀行16% 以上目標的評論。

Last year, we saw a little more muted credit growth, just given market dynamics. And so we grew our balances excluding the HSBC component that came into capital markets below that 4% to 5% rate as a result. And as we see client activity picking up, we do see capacity for us to probably grow a little more than that 4% to 5% as we look forward to next year. But we're going to be very focused on one, not compromising our risk to do that, and two, making sure we continue to be on track to support a very robust RoE for the business.

去年，考慮到市場動態，我們看到信貸成長更加溫和。因此，我們的餘額成長了，不包括進入資本市場的匯豐銀行成分，其結果是低於 4% 至 5% 的利率。當我們看到客戶活動增加時，我們確實預計明年的產能成長可能會超過 4% 至 5%。但我們將非常關註一，不犧牲這樣做的風險，二，確保我們繼續走上正軌，為業務提供非常強勁的股本回報率。

And just if I can just sneak one more in for Graeme and Katherine as the -- as I guess Graeme's outlook on PCLs. Does that -- should we be expecting the RWA to asset type density for the bank to grind higher from here? Do you have any guidance as to what sort of an RWA growth relative to asset growth we should be kind of factoring into our thinking?

如果我能再偷偷地為格雷姆和凱瑟琳介紹一下——我猜格雷姆對 PCL 的看法。我們是否應該預期銀行的 RWA 相對於資產類型密度會從現在開始走高？對於我們應該在思考中考慮相對於資產成長的 RWA 成長，您有什麼指導嗎？

Maybe just from a general credit quality perspective there, there will be some degree of pressure as we continue to see credit migration. That will affect our stage 1 and 2 on in our overall RWA in a very similar manner.

也許僅從整體信貸品質的角度來看，隨著我們繼續看到信貸遷移，將會面臨一定程度的壓力。這將以非常相似的方式影響我們整體 RWA 的第一階段和第二階段。

I think what you saw this quarter actually was very much tied to the kind of same driver there. And so I think as we start to kind of find that peak, and credit quality starts to either improve or at least the flat note, then you'll see that abate on that impact.

我認為您在本季度看到的情況實際上與那裡的同一個驅動程式密切相關。因此，我認為，當我們開始找到峰值，並且信用品質開始改善或至少趨於平緩時，您會看到這種影響減弱。

But I don't think we're really forecasting a huge impact or change in the overall kind of density factor there. I think the core client strategies and credit strategies continue to be consistent. And so that won't really on the origination side shift us one way or another materially.

但我認為我們並沒有真正預測那裡的整體密度因素會產生巨大的影響或變化。我認為核心客戶策略和信用策略仍然是一致的。因此，在起源方面，這並不會真正使我們以一種或另一種方式發生重大轉變。

Okay. Thank you very much. Congratulations on a great year.

好的。非常感謝。恭喜您度過了美好的一年。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

保羅·霍爾登，CIBC。

Thank you. Good morning. So I've heard the message on building pipeline for commercial and in capital markets. Wondering what you're seeing on Canadian residential mortgages. Have heard a few others comment that they're seeing higher application rates and expecting better volumes in '25. So just maybe you can provide an outlook there.

謝謝。早安.所以我聽到了關於為商業和資本市場建立管道的資訊。想知道您對加拿大住宅抵押貸款的看法。聽到其他一些人評論說，他們看到了更高的應用率，並預計 25 年會有更好的數量。所以也許你可以提供一個展望。

Yeah, thanks Paul for the question. It's Erica. I think as we look to the next year, we would see some more activity in the residential mortgage market. As we came through the last part of this cycle, a lot of buyers have been sitting on the sidelines just given the affordability impact to them of thinking about a new house purchase.

是的，謝謝保羅提出的問題。是艾麗卡。我認為，展望明年，我們將看到住宅抵押貸款市場出現更多活動。當我們經歷這個週期的最後階段時，許多買家一直在觀望，只是考慮到考慮購買新房子會對他們的負擔能力產生影響。

And so as we see prices come down for the consumer, we expect to see more of those thinking about home purchases. So that should increase activity inside the market a little bit over next year. The other side for us as an organization, and Graeme and Dave mentioned it, would just be that we would expect to see a lot of renewal activity inside that.

因此，當我們看到消費者的價格下降時，我們預計會有更多的人考慮購買房屋。因此，明年市場內的活動應該會增加。對於我們作為一個組織來說，格雷姆和戴夫提到的另一面是，我們希望看到其中有許多更新活動。

There's obviously an opportunity for us to gather switch business from our competitors, and likewise to shore up our own business. So we would expect strength or growing mortgage volume over this past year as we go into 2025.

顯然，我們有機會從競爭對手那裡收集交換器業務，同樣也可以支撐我們自己的業務。因此，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們預計過去一年抵押貸款數量將會強勁或成長。

Thanks for that. I'm going to sneak in a second one as well. Just as we think about tariff risk and, I guess, more broadly sort of geopolitical risk, is there in any way something that makes HSBC business more susceptible to US, China relations just because of the history of that business?

謝謝你。我也打算偷偷溜進第二個。正如我們思考關稅風險，以及更廣泛的地緣政治風險一樣，是否有什麼因素會導致匯豐銀行的業務僅僅因為該業務的歷史而更容易受到中美關係的影響？

Or is it now mostly a domestic business? Just kind of maybe want to understand a little bit better the customer profile of that and if there is any still some strong linkages back to that part of the world.

或現在主要是國內業務？只是可能想更了解該地區的客戶概況，以及是否與世界那個地區仍然存在一些牢固的聯繫。

Yeah, maybe I'll start, and Sean or Erica can jump in. But certainly there was an east, west connectivity, and it continues to be an east, west connectivity. But the majority of the clients are operate out of Canada have strong domestic businesses. They may have contacts, they may move money back and forth between the two.

是的，也許我會開始，肖恩或艾麗卡可以加入。但肯定有東西方的連通性，而且仍然是東西方的連通性。但多數客戶在加拿大境外經營，擁有強大的國內業務。他們可能有聯繫，他們可能在兩者之間來回轉移資金。

Therefore, none of our plans, whether it's obviously cost take up, but none of our growth, and revenue plans are contingent upon significant increased connectivity, or anything beyond that we have today. So no, we thought about that certainly when we made the acquisition.

因此，我們的任何計劃，無論是明顯的成本佔用，還是我們的成長和收入計劃，都不是取決於連接性的顯著增加，或任何超出我們今天的水平。所以不，我們在進行收購時肯定考慮到了這一點。

But these clients are embedded in Canada, and are strong Canadian clients both on the commercial and consumer side, and are very large, significant clients with the global operations, not just back to Hong Kong, but you know, strong connectivity in United States, strong connectivity in Southeast Asia, as well and India, and that's the beauty of the franchise is diversification.

但這些客戶植根於加拿大，在商業和消費者方面都是加拿大的強大客戶，而且是在全球開展業務的非常大、重要的客戶，不僅回到香港，而且你知道，在美國也有強大的連通性，東南亞以及印度的強大連結性，這就是特許經營權的美妙之處在於多元化。

But with that Sean or Erica, did you want to add anything?

但是對於 Sean 或 Erica，你想添加什麼嗎？

Sure. The only thing I would add is I just emphasize that they all have a Canadian nexus to your point. The -- what we've talked about the international component of the client base, those are tend to be clients, Canadian parents with international operations, international subsidiaries, international supply chains, and or subsidiaries of corporations that have in Canada. But these are some of the clients that you would recognize and name brands from globally with a strong component of that in the US and the euro markets as well.

當然。我唯一要補充的是，我只是強調他們都與你的觀點有加拿大的連結。我們所討論的客戶群的國際組成部分，這些往往是客戶、擁有國際業務的加拿大母公司、國際子公司、國際供應鏈和/或在加拿大擁有公司的子公司。但這些客戶是您在全球範圍內認可和命名的品牌，其中在美國和歐元市場也佔有重要地位。

Okay, thanks for that. That's it for me.

好的，謝謝。對我來說就是這樣。

Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

加布里埃爾‧德鏈 (Gabriel Dechaine)，國家銀行金融部門。

Okay, good morning. Asset yields were down less than funding costs, fell this quarter. Is that a trend continuing part of your NII outlook for mid to high single digit growth in '25?

好的，早安。本季資產收益率下降幅度小於融資成本下降幅度。這種趨勢是否會繼續成為您對 25 年 NII 中高個位數成長的展望的一部分？

And then as far as credit, that guidance, I'm just wanting to confirm, you have unemployment peaking in the first half, and then PCLs peaking in the second half, unless I'm mistaken. Are you factoring in any impact from a possible trade war with the US? I know there's a lot of debate on how it may take shape or not take shape, but it's certainly a risk out there if certain industries are hit from not being able to sell to their biggest customer.

然後就信貸而言，我只是想確認一下，失業率在上半年達到峰值，然後 PCL 在下半年達到峰值，除非我弄錯了。您是否考慮到與美國可能發生的貿易戰的影響？我知道關於它如何形成或不形成有很多爭論，但如果某些行業因無法向其最大客戶銷售而受到打擊，這肯定是一個風險。

Morning, Gabe, it's Katherine. I'll start with your first question around the NIM outlook and what we did this year as you would have heard in my comments is that we've changed our guidance to focus on in insurance income excluding (technical difficulty)

早上好，加布，我是凱瑟琳。我將從關於 NIM 前景的第一個問題開始，以及我們今年所做的事情，正如您在我的評論中聽到的那樣，我們已經改變了我們的指導，以專注於保險收入，不包括（技術難度）

There are so many moving parts that are quite difficult to forecast for the moment relating to NIM. But if it's helpful, I would say looking at the underlying components that support our NIX trading guidance, we're really looking to expected volume growth going forward as called out in Dave's comments.

目前與 NIM 相關的變化因素非常多，很難預測。但如果它有幫助的話，我想說看看支持我們的 NIX 交易指導的基礎組件，我們真的很期待未來的預期交易量增長，正如戴夫的評論中所指出的那樣。

We're also expecting to see the tractor benefits continue to offset the lower interest rate environment that's forecasted for the year ahead. We -- I guess part of the unknown, so that is also captured in there is around client and competitor behavior.

我們也預期拖拉機的收益將繼續抵消未來一年預測的較低利率環境。我們－我猜是未知的一部分，所以這也反映在客戶和競爭對手的行為上。

So as I noted in my remarks, we are seeing ongoing competitive pressures on mortgage pricing as well as on the term deposit. But on the client side, with the lower rates, you would have seen as well in the comments that the term deposit growth of positive flows for GAM.

因此，正如我在演講中指出的那樣，我們看到抵押貸款定價和定期存款面臨持續的競爭壓力。但在客戶端，由於利率較低，您也會在評論中看到 GAM 的定期存款正成長。

And so as rates continue to drop, we're likely expecting to see that we'll have those flows come out of term deposits. For RBC though, we expect it to be flat to revenue that is down on that interest income. But we'll see that roll into our other income, so being flat overall. So stepping back, those are kind of the key components that we're looking at that underpins that guidance of mid to high single digits.

因此，隨著利率繼續下降，我們可能會預期這些資金流將來自定期存款。不過，對於加拿大皇家銀行來說，我們預期其收入將與利息收入持平。但我們會看到它轉入我們的其他收入，因此總體持平。因此，退一步來說，這些是我們正在研究的關鍵組成部分，它們支撐著中高個位數的指導。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Hey Gabe, it's Graeme, and I'll just take your second question there, I guess a two parter on the first part, yes, your assumptions were correct there that we see unemployment kind of peaking in the first half. And then that along with the other factors here playing through to peak PCL, it's more in the center in the second half of the year. Certainly, a lot of uncertainty around that on the exact timing, but that's the general trajectory that you outlined.

嘿，加布，我是格雷姆，我只想回答你的第二個問題，我想第一部分有兩個問題，是的，你的假設是正確的，我們看到失業率在上半年達到頂峰。然後，與其他因素一起影響 PCL 的峰值，它在下半年會更加集中。當然，確切的時間存在著許多不確定性，但這就是您概述的整體軌跡。

And then to your question on trade war, again, as Dave pointed out, I mean, we're -- this is still early days on this, there's certainly no conclusions. We're obviously monitoring for that. But also, with outcome versus kind of some of the statements that have been made, we expect that will kind of transform significantly as our leaders negotiate and conclude on this.

然後，對於你關於貿易戰的問題，正如戴夫所指出的，我的意思是，我們——這還處於早期階段，肯定沒有結論。我們顯然正在對此進行監控。而且，根據結果與已發表的一些聲明的比較，我們預計，隨著我們的領導人就此進行談判並得出結論，情況將會發生重大變化。

Having said that, I would just remind you that uncertainty is something we constantly think about and face, and that's why we do run multiple scenarios in our provisioning. And some of those adverse scenarios absolutely kind of capture the kind of consequences that could play out if tariffs come into play.

話雖如此，我只是提醒您，不確定性是我們不斷思考和麵對的事情，這就是我們在配置中運行多個場景的原因。其中一些不利情景絕對反映了關稅發揮作用時可能產生的後果。

And so again, I think we feel quite comfortable that we're well provisioned for the kind of the uncertainty we're facing. But we'll continue to monitor and track that and reflect that in our forecast going forward.

再說一遍，我認為我們感到非常放心，因為我們已經為所面臨的不確定性做好了充分準備。但我們將繼續監控和追蹤這一點，並將其反映在我們未來的預測中。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

馬裡奧門東卡，道明證券。

Katherine, you provided some pretty good guidance at a detailed level. I want to take one big step back and ask, does the 7% plus medium term EPS growth guidance? Does that apply to '25 or is there something special about '25 that you would steer us away from the 7%?

凱瑟琳，您在詳細層面上提供了一些非常好的指導。我想退一步問，7%以上的中期每股盈餘成長指引是否有效？這是否適用於 25 年，或者說 25 年有什麼特別之處，您會引導我們遠離 7% 的人？

Mario, thank you for the question. And I would say, the guidance that we provided, you gave you a clear direction the an interest income excluding trading. We've provided guidance on NIE. So stepping back what I would guide you to is that we're still focusing on positive level as we're moving forward.

馬裡奧，謝謝你的提問。我想說，我們提供的指導，給了你一個明確的方向，就是不包括交易的利息收入。我們提供了有關 NIE 的指導。因此，退後一步，我要引導您的是，在我們前進的過程中，我們仍然專注於積極的水平。

We're also expecting to have I guess, an item that we didn't give guidance to is on the other income. But in Dave's comments, we're expecting positive capital markets and wealth management as we look going forward.

我猜我們還期望有一個我們沒有提供指導的項目是關於其他收入的。但在戴夫的評論中，我們預期未來資本市場和財富管理將會出現正面的變化。

And then on, I guess, the tax and the PCL, we've covered that off. So adding that all up together, I would say that as we said, we're committed to our MTOs of that EPS. So nothing to change, I guess, a long-winded answer, but nothing to change, Mario, for what we've put out there.

然後，我想，稅收和 PCL，我們已經涵蓋了。因此，將所有這些加在一起，我想說，正如我們所說，我們致力於 EPS 的 MTO。所以我想，沒有什麼可以改變的，這是一個冗長的答案，但對於我們已經發布的內容，馬裡奧，沒有什麼可以改變的。

Yeah. The reason I ask is with PCLs moving higher and the tax rate obviously moving a little higher, it does seem like it would be a challenging year to hit the 7% plus and -- but I think what I'm interpreting from your answer is that you're not moving off the 7%.

是的。我問的原因是隨著 PCL 的走高，稅率明顯走高，今年要達到 7% 以上似乎確實是充滿挑戰的一年，但我認為我從你的答案中解釋的是你不會放棄 7%。

Yes. No, no, no. Yes, very, just very clear. We are not merely moving off of the MTOs. I know we signaled that higher taxes and PCL, but we fully intend to earn through both of those items and hit our MTOs.

是的。不，不，不。是的，非常非常清楚。我們不僅僅是放棄 MTO。我知道我們表示要提高稅收和 PCL，但我們完全打算透過這兩個項目來賺錢並達到我們的 MTO。

Maybe for Dave and this -- I'm not sure you can really address this one and try anyway. It would appear loan growth has been soft now in Canada for some time. We're probably heading toward a further slowdown, as you say, as unemployment peaks.

也許對於戴夫和這個——我不確定你是否能真正解決這個問題並嘗試。加拿大的貸款成長似乎已經疲軟一段時間了。正如你所說，隨著失業率達到頂峰，我們的經濟可能會進一步放緩。

What I'd like you to think about is are the conditions in place for a reduction in the DSB? It's been elevated now for the domestic stability buffer. It's been elevated for some time now, and it hasn't really moved. Do you think that the conditions are in place to ease in that respect to allow for a little more room for lending from Canada's largest banks? Is that plausible? Can you address that?

我想讓你思考的是，減少DSB的條件是否具備？現在國內穩定緩衝已經提高。它已經升高了一段時間了，但並沒有真正移動。您認為在這方面放鬆的條件是否已經到位，以便為加拿大最大的銀行提供更多的貸款空間？這樣合理嗎？你能解決這個問題嗎？

You know, the construct -- interesting question, I mean, the construct where they might consider that or are a couple of things, one, and we would advocate for this is to ensure that there is a level playing field globally. And there is a lot of discussion about where the US is going to go with Basel IV or not, go with Basel IV at all.

你知道，有趣的問題，我的意思是，他們可能會考慮這一點，或者是幾件事，其中之一，我們主張這一點是為了確保全球有一個公平的競爭環境。關於美國將在何處執行《巴塞爾協議 IV》或不執行《巴塞爾協議 IV》，有許多討論。

And therefore, there's a construct to think about how we apply capital in Canada and where we go in. And you know, we were early adopters of Basel IV in Canada with the floors and whatnot. So I think from that perspective, I think appropriately everything is being reevaluated in the context of where the global commitment is to do that, particularly what's coming out of the US as we compete in both marketplaces.

因此，有一個結構可以思考我們如何在加拿大運用資本以及我們進入哪裡。你知道，我們是加拿大巴塞爾 IV 協議的早期採用者，包括地板之類的。因此，我認為從這個角度來看，我認為在全球承諾做到這一點的背景下，我認為一切都在適當地重新評估，特別是當我們在兩個市場競爭時來自美國的情況。

As far as the timing of when DSPs go up and down, I'll leave that to Superintendent to do that, I really don't have a strong view right now what's the appropriate timing. We're more focused on our ACL in stage 1 and 2 and when that could be released. But I haven't put a lot of thought, honestly, into should the DSP buffer go down.

至於 DSP 何時上升和下降的時間，我將讓主管來做，我現在確實沒有明確的觀點什麼是合適的時間。我們更關注第一階段和第二階段的 ACL 以及何時發布。但說實話，我並沒有太多考慮 DSP 緩衝區是否會故障。

It put a lot of thought into the global competitiveness of the DSP buffer, and where we are on overall capital ratio is very important to me. So that's the best I can do right now. And I haven't put a lot of thought into it, so I'll caution my remarks there.

它對 DSP 緩衝器的全球競爭力投入了大量的精力，我們的整體資本比率對我來說非常重要。所以這是我現在能做的最好的事。我還沒有對此進行太多思考，所以我會謹慎地發表我的言論。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

馬修李，Canaccord Genuity。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. Maybe one for Derek here. C&IB activity seems like it's kind of still in the early stages, especially compared to the U. Can you maybe just talk about what you're hearing right now in terms of feedback from clients or general trends that maybe get you more excited about the business in '25, and how quickly we can start to see activity start to pick up?

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許是給德里克的。C&IB 活動似乎還處於早期階段，特別是與美國相比。經濟活動開始回升？

Sure, thanks Matthew. You know, obviously, after a slower investment banking fee environment in 2022 and 2023, we did start to see some very good signs of recovery this year. We've seen that in industry fee pools, and obviously in the results that we've been able to deliver.

當然，謝謝馬修。你知道，顯然，在 2022 年和 2023 年投資銀行收費環境放緩之後，我們今年確實開始看到一些非常好的復甦跡象。我們已經在行業費用池中看到了這一點，顯然也從我們能夠提供的結果中看到了這一點。

I think on the back of the outlook for 2025, a very constructive market environment, some of the secular tailwinds that Dave alluded to both in terms of corporate strategic activity, but also dry powder with our sponsor clients.

我認為，展望 2025 年，這是一個非常有建設性的市場環境，戴夫提到的一些長期順風車既包括企業策略活動，也包括我們贊助商客戶的乾粉。

We certainly feel quite optimistic about the outlook for 2025, continuing to show that pace of recovery. We've seen that in terms of overall market activity levels, we feel very good about our pipeline heading into the year.

我們當然對 2025 年的前景感到非常樂觀，繼續展現出復甦的步伐。我們已經看到，就整體市場活動水平而言，我們對進入今年的管道感覺非常好。

And so, absent any surprises on the horizon, we anticipate a fairly healthy environment as we move into 2025. And then obviously, we're very focused on more RBC specific initiatives on the hiring front as we build out our sector teams and our various product teams to continue to capture share against that hopefully rising people environment.

因此，如果未來不會出現任何意外，我們預計進入 2025 年時將會出現相當健康的環境。顯然，我們非常關注 RBC 在招募方面的更多具體舉措，因為我們建立了我們的部門團隊和各種產品團隊，以繼續在充滿希望的不斷增長的人才環境中佔據份額。

Lemar Persaud, Cormark Securities.

Lemar Persaud，Cormark 證券公司。

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. I appreciate the new disclosure on slide 37 with the mortgage renewals. But I want to come at it from a different perspective than the credit that question. If we think about these payment increases in the I guess high teens to low 20s for 2025 and 2026, what does that mean for the earnings outlook on the personal banking or wealth businesses?

是的，謝謝你回答我的問題。我很欣賞幻燈片 37 上關於抵押貸款續約的新披露。但我想從一個不同的角度來看這個問題，而不是相信這個問題。如果我們考慮一下 2025 年和 2026 年支付額的增幅（我猜是十幾歲到二十多歲），這對個人銀行或財富業務的盈利前景意味著什麼？

Like should we expect some slow down there as these borrowers refi to higher rates, perhaps some of that flow of deposits and GICs off the sidelines won't go into wealth management, and set the debt servicing. Is that something that could be meaningful in your view, because that's an awfully large amount of mortgages renewing? Thanks.

就像我們是否應該預期，隨著這些借款人再融資至更高的利率，貸款增速會有所放緩，也許場外的部分存款和擔保投資證不會進入財富管理，並設定償債能力。在您看來，這是否有意義，因為更新的抵押貸款數量非常大？謝謝。

Lemar, thanks for the question. I mean, as we look at the mortgage renewals, obviously, as you indicated, a large strip, but I think we feel very confident that we have the measures in place as a personal bank to manage that degree of renewals.

勒馬爾，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，當我們審視抵押貸款續約時，顯然，正如您所指出的，這是一個很大的範圍，但我認為我們非常有信心，我們作為一家個人銀行已採取措施來管理這種程度的續簽。

Dave alluded to in his earlier comments related to some of the digitization that we've done as well as making sure that we have advisers well placed across our network, branches, and advice center to manage that.

戴夫在他之前的評論中提到了我們所做的一些數位化工作，以及確保我們在我們的網路、分支機構和諮詢中心配備了適當的顧問來管理這些數位化工作。

And so from the renewal side, we would expect to continue to perform strongly. But I would also say that this is a disproportionate opportunity for us to then win business competitively, where we have shown continued strength in our mortgage business to do that over the last number of years.

因此，從更新方面來看，我們預計將繼續表現強勁。但我也想說，這對我們來說是一個在競爭中贏得業務的不成比例的機會，過去幾年我們在抵押貸款業務上表現出了持續的實力。

And so we see this as an opportunity for us to continue to grow from a business perspective. And so I think that gives on that side of the balance sheet strength in the side of the personal bank. And then as it relates to volumes in the deposit side, I think that we are continuing -- we have in this past cycle gathered deposits at a rate that's been higher than our competitors.

因此，我們認為這是我們從業務角度繼續發展的機會。因此，我認為這在資產負債表方面賦予了個人銀行方面的力量。然後，由於與存款方面的交易量有關，我認為我們正在繼續——我們在過去的周期中以高於競爭對手的速度收集了存款。

And we continue to stay focused on the deposit franchise. And so feel and expect that we'll continue to show strength in the marketplace as it relates to that side of the balance sheet as well.

我們繼續專注於存款業務。因此，我們感覺並期望我們將繼續在市場上展現實力，因為這也與資產負債表的這一面有關。

I'll just build on that question in terms of what does it mean for wealth management? I mean, we've seen, you've heard in some of the previous comments, just the acceleration of with equity markets trending up and rates coming off, we're seeing assets continue to grow, and they spoke to the trend of net sales and we're quite pleased the acceleration we saw particularly at the back end of 2024.

我將圍繞這個問題來探討這對財富管理意味著什麼？我的意思是，我們已經看到，您在之前的一些評論中也聽說過，隨著股市的加速上漲和利率的下降，我們看到資產繼續增長，他們談到了淨資產的趨勢我們很高興看到銷售量的成長，特別是在2024 年底。

If we add to that, I mean, there's an awful lot of the our ultra-high net worth clients where we're seeing disproportionate amount of asset growth, they're not carrying the mortgages that Erica we'd be talking about in we see that both in Canada and the US.

如果我們補充這一點，我的意思是，我們有很多超高淨值客戶，我們看到了不成比例的資產增長，他們沒有承擔我們在我們的埃里卡中討論的抵押貸款。看到這一點。

And so when we look at that increased investor confidence and just our ability to continue to recruit investment advisors, I mean, I think all that really built into the confidence heading into next year for the wealth business.

因此，當我們看到投資者信心的增強以及我們繼續招募投資顧問的能力時，我的意思是，我認為所有這些都真正增強了明年財富業務的信心。

Great. So thank you for the questions everyone. I think we're going to bring this to a close and maybe just a few summary comments. So we're very proud of the quarter, and proud of the year, a year in which we made our largest acquisition and went through a very complex transition.

偉大的。謝謝大家的提問。我想我們將結束這個主題，也許只是一些總結性的評論。因此，我們對這個季度和這一年感到非常自豪，這一年我們進行了最大的收購，並經歷了非常複雜的過渡。

I think you can see HSBC is well on track to deliver on the bottom line impact of $1.4 billion. And with upside from the revenue that we'll get from cross sell that we disclose more fully in the beginning of the year. So HSBC is a big part of the overall theme.

我認為您可以看到匯豐銀行正在順利實現 14 億美元的利潤影響。我們將從交叉銷售中獲得的收入上升，我們將在今年年初更全面地披露這一點。所以匯豐銀行是整個主題的重要組成部分。

But important theme is that we did not lose momentum, we gained momentum in all our core businesses. The wealth growth was outstanding, capital markets building pipelines had very strong performance this year, and the businesses exited the year in Q4 with momentum.

但重要的主題是，我們並沒有失去動力，我們在所有核心業務中都獲得了動力。財富成長突出，資本市場建設管道今年表現非常強勁，第四季度業務退出勢頭強勁。

The client volume play, and there's a couple of businesses that can improve as well on that, which we talked about certainly as we look to do a bit better in the mortgage business, if you know, the market allows that as far as a profitability perspective.

客戶量發揮作用，有一些業務也可以在這方面進行改進，我們當然討論過這些業務，因為我們希望在抵押貸款業務方面做得更好一點，如果你知道的話，市場允許在盈利能力範圍內這樣做看法。

So very strong client volumes, prudent risk management. You heard of maybe a bit of a cautious look. It's just a macro call. It's hard to make a macro call right now with so many variables. But we're cautiously optimistic, and we think that's the prudent way to do things, and we haven't changed our forecasts.

非常強大的客戶量，審慎的風險管理。您聽說過可能有一點謹慎的態度。這只是一個巨集呼叫。現在有這麼多變數很難進行巨集呼叫。但我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，我們認為這是謹慎的做事方式，我們沒有改變我們的預測。

We could be wrong, it could accelerated, it could be on the schedule. We said whatever it is, we will adjust to that, and that will play out as it does. And certainly you think about our commitment to being good stewards of capital.

我們可能是錯的，它可能會加速，也可能會按計劃進行。我們說過，無論發生什麼，我們都會對此進行調整，並且事情會按照實際情況進行。當然，您也會想到我們對成為良好資本管理者的承諾。

We've got enormous strategic optionality. We know 16%-plus is a very important investment thesis. We have a very strong tactical plan with a number of levers. We can do more of this, less of this in the short and medium and long term.

我們有巨大的戰略選擇。我們知道 16% 以上是一個非常重要的投資主題。我們有一個非常強大的戰術計劃，有很多槓桿。從短期、中期和長期來看，我們可以多做一些這樣的事情，少做一些這樣的事情。

And therefore we're confident we can deliver on our EPS and RoE commitments and drive premium TSR performance as we did over the last year. So thank you very much for your questions. I wish you all a great holiday season. We look forward to seeing you at the RBC Capital Markets Conference in January. Have a great break, and thank you for all your attention.

因此，我們有信心兌現 EPS 和 RoE 承諾，並像去年一樣推動優質的 TSR 表現。非常感謝您的提問。祝大家假期愉快。我們期待在一月份的加拿大皇家銀行資本市場會議上見到您。祝您休息愉快，也感謝大家的關注。

Thank you. The conference is now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation. This conference is no longer being recorded. (spoken in foreign language)

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路。我們感謝您的參與。這次會議不再被記錄。 （用外語說）