Royal Bank of Canada (RY) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RBC's 2025 second-quarter results conference call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Asim Imran, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加加拿大皇家銀行 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Asim Imran。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking today will be Dave McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer; Katherine Gibson, Chief Financial Officer; and Graeme Hepworth, Chief Risk Officer. Also joining us today for your questions Erica Nielsen, Group Head, Personal Banking; Sean Amato-Gauci, Group Head Commercial Banking; Neil McLaughlin, Group Head, Wealth Management; Derek Neldner, Group Head Capital Markets; and Jennifer Publicover, Group Head Insurance.

謝謝大家，早安。今天發言的有總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·麥凱 (Dave McKay)、首席財務官凱瑟琳·吉布森 (Katherine Gibson) 和首席風險官格雷姆·赫普沃斯 (Graeme Hepworth)。今天與我們一起回答問題的還有個人銀行業務集團主管 Erica Nielsen、商業銀行業務集團主管 Sean Amato-Gauci、財富管理集團主管 Neil McLaughlin、資本市場集團主管 Derek Neldner 和保險集團主管 Jennifer Publicover。

As noted on slide 2, our comments may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. To give everyone a chance to ask questions, we ask that you limit your questions and then requeue.

如投影片 2 所述，我們的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及假設並具有固有的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我還要提醒聽眾，銀行根據報告和調整後的基礎來評估其業績，並認為兩者都有助於評估基礎業務業績。為了讓每個人都有機會提問，我們要求您限制您的問題，然後重新排隊。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給戴夫。

Thanks, Asim, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we reported second quarter earnings of $4.4 billion. Adjusted earnings were $4.5 billion and included $260 million of earnings from the acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada. This quarter, we generated strong pre-provision pretax earnings of nearly $7 billion as we continue to execute the strategies we shared at our Investor Day. Adjusted pre-tax pre-provision growth was up 16%, or $971 million from last year, more than offsetting a prudent reserve build of $568 million this quarter.

謝謝，阿西姆，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天，我們報告第二季收益為 44 億美元。調整後收益為 45 億美元，其中包括收購加拿大匯豐銀行的 2.6 億美元收益。本季度，我們繼續執行在投資者日分享的策略，實現了近 70 億美元的強勁撥備前稅前收益。調整後的稅前撥備前成長比去年同期成長了 16%，即 9.71 億美元，足以抵銷本季 5.68 億美元的審慎儲備金成長。

Revenue growth of 11% year over year was underpinned by strong average volume growth in Personal Banking and Commercial Banking, as well as higher spreads in Personal Banking. We also reported robust fee-based revenue growth in Wealth Management and strong global markets revenue and capital markets.

營收年增 11%，這得益於個人銀行業務和商業銀行業務平均交易量強勁增長以及個人銀行業務利差上升。我們也報告了財富管理業務收費收入的強勁成長以及全球市場收入和資本市場的強勁成長。

Our results demonstrate the strength of our diversified business model and earnings power, as well as the value of the insights and advice we deliver for our clients as they navigate the uncertain macro environment. Our revenue growth is noteworthy considering the evolving market conditions. The strong performance was generated from a position of balance sheet strength, which continues to be through the cycle competitive and a strategic advantage for RBC.

我們的業績證明了我們多元化業務模式和盈利能力的實力，以及我們在客戶應對不確定的宏觀環境時提供的見解和建議的價值。考慮到不斷變化的市場條件，我們的收入成長值得關注。強勁的業績源自於強勁的資產負債表實力，這在整個週期中都保持著競爭力和策略優勢。

We continued to grow our core deposit franchises across our segments, including Canadian banking, where the loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 97%, helping fund loan growth in an efficient and stable manner. We ended the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.2%, well above regulatory minimums, translating to excess capital of approximately $5 billion relative to a mid-12% range.

我們繼續擴大各部門的核心存款特許經營權，包括加拿大銀行業務，其中貸存比率提高到 97%，幫助以高效、穩定的方式為貸款增長提供資金。本季末，我們的普通股一級資本適足率為 13.2%，遠高於監管最低標準，相對於 12% 的中間範圍，這意味著超額資本約為 50 億美元。

Underpinned by a robust capital in earnings power this morning, we announced a $0.06, or 4%, increase in our quarterly dividend. We also announced our intention subject to relevant approvals to commence a normal course issuer bid to repurchase for cancellation up to 35 million common shares. We also remain disciplined with respect to our risk management framework and risk appetite.

今天上午，在強勁的資本盈利能力的支持下，我們宣布季度股息增加 0.06 美元，即 4%。我們也宣布，在獲得相關批准的情況下，我們打算開始正常的發行人要約回購最多 3,500 萬股普通股並註銷。我們對風險管理框架和風險偏好也保持嚴格要求。

The allowance for credit loss ratio increased to 74 basis points following a prudent reserve build, which included increasing weightings to our downside scenarios amidst heightened economic uncertainty. Our through the cycle approach to risk -- to managing risk takes into consideration elevated market volatility. We did not have any trading loss days this quarter. And furthermore, over the last four years, we've only seen five days where we generated a trading loss. Our strong balance sheet creates a resilient foundation that allows us to navigate uncertainty while creating value for clients and shareholders.

在審慎建立儲備金（包括在經濟不確定性加劇的情況下增加對下行情境的權重）之後，信貸損失準備金率增加至 74 個基點。我們透過週期方法來應對風險——管理風險時考慮了市場波動性的加劇。本季我們沒有任何交易損失日。此外，在過去四年中，我們只有五天出現交易虧損。我們強勁的資產負債表創造了一個有彈性的基礎，使我們能夠應對不確定性，同時為客戶和股東創造價值。

Turning to the macro environment. Changes to long-standing US and international trade policies have resulted in a volatile and uncertain operating environment, given the potential for structural disruptions to global supply chains and capital flows. These changes are taking place concurrently with other large secular forces of change, including the increased role of artificial intelligence and private capital, magnifying the complexity that businesses are facing. We saw market volatility through much of the quarter, evidenced by movements in credit spreads, the VIX and bond market volatility indices.

轉向宏觀環境。美國和國際長期貿易政策的變化導致經營環境動盪且不確定，並可能對全球供應鏈和資本流動造成結構性中斷。這些變化與其他巨大的長期變革力量同時發生，包括人工智慧和私人資本作用的增強，加劇了企業面臨的複雜性。我們在本季的大部分時間都看到了市場波動，這可以從信用利差、VIX 和債券市場波動率指數的變動中看出。

However, as the US administration implemented a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, the volatility of outcomes, sentiment and markets narrowed significantly. While we can't say for certain where global trade policies will settle, we are cautiously optimistic about the path forward. Reciprocal tariffs imposed on Canada are currently at the lowest end of the global scale, reflecting strong bilateral trade in the CUSMA agreement.

然而，隨著美國政府實施為期90天的互惠關稅暫停令，結果、情緒和市場的波動性顯著收窄。雖然我們無法確定全球貿易政策最終會如何發展，但我們對未來的道路持謹慎樂觀的態度。目前對加拿大徵收的互惠關稅處於全球最低水平，反映了CUSMA協議中強勁的雙邊貿易。

Although we are not projecting a recession in either Canada or the U.S. the prevailing uncertainty is dampening confidence, sentiment and client activity in certain parts of the North American economy, including housing.

儘管我們預測加拿大和美國都不會出現經濟衰退，但普遍存在的不確定性正在抑制北美經濟某些領域（包括住房）的信心、情緒和客戶活動。

North American consumers have remained resilient. They are continuing to spend, albeit less on discretionary items and savings are growing. Businesses are in a holding pattern on large CapEx but have built inventory and shored up supply chains moving consumption forward, as under these complex circumstances that policymakers are looking to navigate the options to solve for inflation, unemployment and growth. We expect the Bank of Canada will continue to take a more dovish stance to shore up consumer sentiment and growth.

北美消費者依然保持著韌性。他們仍在繼續消費，儘管可自由支配項目的支出減少了，儲蓄也在增加。企業在大型資本支出方面處於觀望狀態，但已建立庫存並鞏固了供應鏈以推動消費，因為在這種複雜的情況下，政策制定者正在尋求解決通貨膨脹、失業和成長問題的方案。我們預期加拿大央行將繼續採取更溫和的立場，以支撐消費者情緒和經濟成長。

Furthermore, we hope to see the increased political uncertainty in Canada drive structural improvements in the country's productivity and competitiveness, including more effectively leveraging our abundant natural resources and skilled workforce. With the Federal Reserve signaling a holding pattern on interest rates, given opposing forces, we similarly expect a more dovish stance in U.S. monetary policy, albeit on a lagged timeline.

此外，我們希望看到加拿大日益增加的政治不確定性推動該國生產力和競爭力的結構性改善，包括更有效地利用我們豐富的自然資源和熟練的勞動力。鑑於聯準會暗示維持利率不變，考慮到相反的力量，我們同樣預期美國貨幣政策將採取更溫和的立場，儘管時間上有所滯後。

To reiterate what I said earlier, we believe we're in a strong position to navigate this period of uncertainty given the strength of our balance sheet, our diversified business model and our strong risk culture. With this context, I will now speak to the trends we're seeing across our businesses as we continue to focus on delivering advice, insights and value to our clients.

重申我之前所說的話，我們相信，鑑於我們強勁的資產負債表、多元化的業務模式和強大的風險文化，我們有能力度過這段不確定的時期。在此背景下，我現在將談論我們在整個業務中看到的趨勢，我們將繼續專注於為客戶提供建議、見解和價值。

Starting with our leadership position in Canada. Personal Banking. We have the leading distribution network in Canada with a full suite of award-winning products and solutions. Average deposits increased 13% year over year, or 8% excluding the acquisition of HSBC Canada, led by outsized growth in our lower cost core banking and savings products. As noted at our Investor Day, growing core deposits remains a priority.

從我們在加拿大的領導地位開始。個人銀行業務。我們擁有加拿大領先的分銷網絡，提供全套屢獲殊榮的產品和解決方案。平均存款年增 13%，若不計收購匯豐加拿大，則成長 8%，主要得益於我們低成本核心銀行和儲蓄產品的大幅成長。正如我們在投資者日所指出的，增加核心存款仍然是我們的首要任務。

This provides us with data to support personalization, underpin risk models and our interest rate hedging strategy while being an important source of funding. Residential mortgage growth was largely supported by stronger client renewals, higher origination volumes driven by strong mortgage switch-in activity, partly offset by higher paydowns.

這為我們提供了支持個人化、支撐風險模型和利率對沖策略的數據，同時也是重要的資金來源。住宅抵押貸款的成長主要得益於更強勁的客戶續約和強勁的抵押貸款轉換活動推動的更高的貸款發放量，但部分被更高的還款額所抵消。

We expect housing resale activity and mortgage growth to remain contained in the near term as the uncertainty around tariffs outweighs lower debt servicing costs from lower interest rates. Amidst ongoing intense competition, we will maintain the disciplined mortgage growth strategy we articulated over the past year. In our credit card business, spending remained relatively resilient despite low consumer sentiment.

我們預計，由於關稅的不確定性超過了降低利率帶來的債務償還成本的降低，短期內房屋轉售活動和抵押貸款成長將保持抑制狀態。在持續激烈的競爭中，我們將繼續堅持過去一年來製定的嚴謹的抵押貸款成長策略。在我們的信用卡業務中，儘管消費者信心低迷，但支出仍然保持相對彈性。

Going forward, we expect spending to soften and revolver balances to increase year-over-year should the current environment persist.

展望未來，如果當前環境持續下去，我們預期支出將會減少，而循環信貸餘額將逐年增加。

Turning to Commercial Banking, where we have a leading market share across all segments. Average deposit growth remained strong, up 15% year over year, or 10% excluding deposits acquired through the acquisition of HSBC Canada. This growth continues to be supported by investments in our people and capabilities, including digital client onboarding and transaction banking.

談到商業銀行，我們在所有領域都擁有領先的市場份額。平均存款成長仍強勁，年增 15%，若不包括透過收購匯豐加拿大所獲得的存款，則成長 10%。這一成長持續得益於我們對人才和能力的投資，包括數位客戶入職和交易銀行業務。

Average net loans and acceptances were up 22% year over year, or up 9% excluding loans acquired through HSBC Canada. Adjusting for these acquired loans, larger commercial and corporate loans in small businesses, loans grew at a similar rate. Utilization rates have remained largely unchanged.

平均淨貸款和承兌額年增 22%，若不包括透過匯豐加拿大所獲得的貸款，則成長 9%。在這些收購的貸款進行調整後，小型企業的較大商業和公司貸款也以類似的速度成長。利用率基本上保持不變。

While the lending pipeline and client activity remain solid across many parts of our diversified portfolio, we continue to see signs of cautious business sentiment in certain areas as clients assess how global tariffs could impact their strategies and investment plans. Loan demand was notably softer for companies in the automotive, consumer discretionary and transportation sectors.

儘管我們多元化投資組合的許多部分的貸款管道和客戶活動仍然穩健，但隨著客戶評估全球關稅如何影響他們的策略和投資計劃，我們繼續看到某些領域商業情緒謹慎的跡象。汽車、非必需消費品和運輸業公司的貸款需求明顯疲軟。

Going forward, we continue to expect Commercial Banking loan growth in the high single-digit range for the year, but moderate to the mid-to-high single digits range in the back half. Turning to HSBC Canada. We're continuing to bring new capabilities to market as we’ve now completed the migration of the largest and most complex commercial clients acquired through the acquisition of HSBC Canada pursuant to the transition services agreement.

展望未來，我們繼續預期今年商業銀行貸款成長率將維持在高個位數範圍內，但下半年將降至中高個位數範圍內。轉向匯豐加拿大。我們將繼續向市場推出新的功能，因為我們現在已經根據過渡服務協議完成了透過收購匯豐加拿大而獲得的最大和最複雜的商業客戶的遷移。

As we exit Q2, the execution of cost synergy initiatives is largely complete, and we are increasingly confident of achieving our targeted annualized cost synergies by next quarter. Now to segments in which we are expanding our reach in global fee pools.

隨著我們結束第二季度，成本協同效應計畫的執行已基本完成，我們越來越有信心在下個季度實現我們的年度成本協同效應目標。現在我們來談談我們正在擴大全球費用池覆蓋範圍的領域。

Starting with Capital Markets, which reported strong pre-provision pre-tax earnings of $1.4 billion, or a record $3.1 billion for the first half of the year, reflecting its diversified business model. Global Markets had a strong quarter, driven by increased client activity amidst market volatility, which largely benefited our equities and broader macro trading businesses. This was partly offset by the impact of a challenging market backdrop on credit trading.

首先是資本市場，該公司報告稱，撥備前稅前利潤強勁，達到 14 億美元，上半年達到創紀錄的 31 億美元，反映了其多元化的業務模式。全球市場本季表現強勁，這得益於市場波動中客戶活動的增加，這極大有利於我們的股票和更廣泛的宏觀交易業務。但這一增幅被充滿挑戰的市場環境對信貸交易的影響部分抵消。

The strong performance both cash equities and equity derivatives was particularly notable as they are a key area of focus for market share gains over the medium term. Like Commercial Banking, utilization in the Corporate Banking loan book remained relatively steady.

現金股票和股票衍生性商品的強勁表現尤其引人注目，因為它們是中期市場份額成長的重點領域。與商業銀行業務一樣，企業銀行貸款帳簿的利用率保持相對穩定。

We continue to pursue our strategy to moderately grow lending activity with average loan balances up mid-single digits year-to-date. In contrast, investment banking activity was muted this quarter given the volatility in markets.

我們將繼續推行適度增加貸款活動的策略，今年迄今為止，平均貸款餘額增加了中等個位數。相比之下，由於市場波動，本季投資銀行活動較為低迷。

Going forward, policy uncertainty could continue to impact activity as clients wait on the sidelines for clarity. While the second half of the year is seasonally slower than the first half, client dialogue is robust, and we are well positioned to deliver as deal-making momentum improves. Moving to Wealth Management, where we reported assets under administration growth of 11% in Canada and 9% in the U.S. Our clients remain engaged and we had solid net sales and transactional activity in our Canadian platforms, including an RBC Direct Investing. RBC Global Asset Management assets under management increased by 11% to $694 billion.

展望未來，由於客戶在場外等待政策的明朗化，政策的不確定性可能會繼續影響經濟活動。雖然下半年的季節性發展比上半年慢，但客戶對話仍然活躍，隨著交易勢頭的改善，我們已準備好提供服務。轉向財富管理，我們報告加拿大的管理資產增加了 11%，美國的管理資產增加了 9%。我們的客戶仍然保持活躍，我們在加拿大平台（包括 RBC Direct Investing）的淨銷售額和交易活動穩健。加拿大皇家銀行全球資產管理公司管理的資產成長了 11%，達到 6,940 億美元。

Net sales were robust across asset classes with client flows shifting from fixed income and equity mandates earlier in the quarter to more balanced funds in April, highlighting our clients' confidence in our wide range of investment strategies across geographies. As a leading asset manager, RBC GAM consistently delivers strong performance through our leading distribution network. This point was underscored with RBC GAM again being named the TopGun investment team of the Year in Canada for 2025.

各資產類別的淨銷售額均表現強勁，客戶流量從本季早些時候的固定收益和股票委託轉向 4 月份更為均衡的基金，凸顯了客戶對我們跨地區廣泛投資策略的信心。作為領先的資產管理公司，RBC GAM 透過我們領先的分銷網絡持續提供強勁的業績。這一點得到了強調，RBC GAM 再次被評為 2025 年度加拿大 TopGun 投資團隊。

To close, this quarter builds on the strong start we've had to Fiscal 2025 amidst an evolving operating environment. While macro-related uncertainty remains, we are confident in our ability to pursue the ambitions and medium-term targets outlined at our Investor Day in March. This includes our OneRBC approach to extending our leadership in Canada, growing in global fee pools and leveraging our strong balance sheet, data scale and AI investments to create more value for clients.

最後，本季在不斷變化的營運環境中，鞏固了我們 2025 財年的強勁開局。儘管宏觀相關的不確定性仍然存在，但我們有信心有能力實現三月投資者日所概述的雄心和中期目標。這包括我們的 OneRBC 方法，以擴大我們在加拿大的領導地位、在全球費用池中成長，並利用我們強大的資產負債表、資料規模和人工智慧投資為客戶創造更多價值。

The key strategic initiatives designed to accelerate our ambitions are expected to continue to deliver leading risk-adjusted returns and long-term value for our shareholders through a wide range of economic cycles.

旨在加速我們實現目標的關鍵策略舉措預計將在廣泛的經濟週期中繼續為我們的股東帶來領先的風險調整回報和長期價值。

Katherine, over to you.

凱瑟琳，交給你了。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. This quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $3.02. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.12 was up 7% from last year, driven by strong revenue momentum across our businesses and prudent cost management. The acquisition of HSBC Canada and foreign exchange translation impacts also benefited results. Turning to capital on Slide 10. We demonstrated our through-the-cycle capital strength and resilience despite the market disruption. Our CET1 ratio came in at 13.2% and flat sequentially. Solid internal capital generation, net of dividends, was partly offset by net credit migration, primarily in our wholesale portfolio. We also continue deploying organic capital across our businesses toward trading-related activities as well as wholesale and personal lending. A key part of our capital deployment strategy is returning capital to our shareholders.

謝謝，戴夫，大家早安。本季度，我們報告的稀釋每股收益為3.02美元。調整後稀釋每股盈餘為3.12美元，較去年同期成長7%，這得益於我們各項業務強勁的營收成長動能以及審慎的成本管理。收購匯豐加拿大及外匯翻譯的影響也對業績產生了影響。轉向第 10 張投影片上的資本。儘管市場動盪，我們仍展現了整個週期的資本實力和韌性。我們的 CET1 比率為 13.2%，與上一季持平。扣除股息後，穩健的內部資本產生部分被淨信貸遷移所抵消，主要是在我們的批發投資組合中。我們也繼續在我們的業務中部署有機資本，用於貿易相關活動以及批發和個人貸款。我們的資本配置策略的關鍵部分是向股東返還資本。

This quarter, we repurchased $3 million in shares for $488 million, an increase from the 2.3 million shares repurchased over the last 2 quarters. We will continue to be tactical with the cadence of share repurchases while operating with a strong CET1 ratio. Next quarter, we expect a modest negative impact to our CET1 ratio as a result of changes to our retail capital parameters.

本季度，我們以 4.88 億美元回購了價值 300 萬美元的股票，比過去兩個季度回購的 230 萬股有所增加。我們將繼續採取策略性股票回購節奏，同時維持強勁的 CET1 比率。下個季度，我們預計零售資本參數的變化將對我們的 CET1 比率產生適度的負面影響。

Moving to Slide 11. All bank net interest income was up 22% year-over-year, or up 14% excluding trading revenue and HSBC Canada. All bank net interest margin, excluding trading revenue, was down 2 basis points from last quarter, partly due to the impact of higher investment securities balances in capital markets. Lower rates on our funding and securities portfolio in corporate support also impacted all bank NIM. As the benefit of certain hedging transactions this quarter was recorded in non-interest income with a related offset reported in net interest income. These factors were mostly offset by a favorable product mix in Personal Banking.

移至投影片 11。所有銀行淨利息收入年增 22%，扣除交易收入和匯豐加拿大後成長 14%。所有不包括交易收入的銀行淨利差較上一季下降 2 個基點，部分原因是受到資本市場投資證券餘額增加的影響。我們在企業支持方面的融資和證券組合利率降低也影響了所有銀行的淨利差。由於本季某些對沖交易的收益記錄在非利息收入中，相關抵銷額則計入淨利息收入。這些因素大部分被個人銀行業務的良好產品組合所抵銷。

Canadian Banking NIM was up 5 basis points from last quarter, benefiting from a favorable product mix, higher mortgage spreads and continued benefits related to our tractor strategy, which provides protection in a declining rate environment.

加拿大銀行業淨利息收益率較上一季度上升了 5 個基點，這得益於有利的產品組合、更高的抵押貸款利差以及與我們的拖拉機戰略相關的持續收益，該戰略在利率下降的環境中提供了保護。

Benefits from changes in product mix were driven by strong growth in checking and savings accounts, and seasonally higher credit card revolve rates, the latter of which we expect to reverse next quarter. In addition to our client acquisition strategies, declining interest rates and uncertainty in the markets are driving clients to hold cash in non-maturity deposits as shorter duration term deposits mature. While we expect to continue benefiting from these tailwinds in the near future, we don't anticipate this level of margin expansion to continue.

產品組合變化帶來的好處是支票和儲蓄帳戶的強勁成長，以及季節性較高的信用卡循環利率，我們預計後者將在下個季度逆轉。除了我們的客戶獲取策略之外，隨著短期定期存款到期，利率下降和市場不確定性也促使客戶將現金持有在非到期存款中。雖然我們預計在不久的將來會繼續受益於這些順風，但我們預計這種利潤率擴張水平不會持續下去。

Looking forward, we are maintaining our 2025 all bank net interest income growth guidance, up high single-digit to low double-digit net interest income, excluding trading.

展望未來，我們維持 2025 年全銀行淨利息收入成長指引，不包括交易，淨利息收入將成長高個位數至低兩位數。

Moving to Slide 12. Reported non-interest expenses were up 5% from last year. Our core expense growth was up 8% year over year. As a reminder, core expense growth includes run rate costs related to the acquisition of HSBC Canada, which contributed 1% to expense growth, but excludes the impact of foreign exchange translation and share-based compensation, which are largely driven by macro variables.

移至投影片 12。報告的非利息支出比去年同期增加了 5%。我們的核心支出較去年同期成長了8%。提醒一下，核心支出成長包括與收購匯豐加拿大相關的營運成本，這為支出成長貢獻了 1%，但不包括外匯折算和股權激勵的影響，這些影響主要受宏觀變數驅動。

The main drivers of growth were higher staff-related costs, including higher-than-average severance, targeted amendments to our defined benefit pensions and higher variable compensation commensurate with strong results in Wealth Management. Going forward, we continue to expect all bank core expense growth, which is off a base of reported 2024 expenses to be at the upper end of our mid-single-digit guidance range for 2025.

成長的主要驅動力是與員工相關的成本增加，包括高於平均水平的遣散費、對我們的固定收益退休金的有針對性的修改以及與財富管理的強勁業績相稱的更高的浮動薪酬。展望未來，我們繼續預期所有銀行核心支出的成長（以 2024 年報告的支出為基礎）將達到我們對 2025 年中等個位數指導範圍的上限。

We remain prudent in managing our cost base amidst an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, and have proactively identified levers to do so. Higher-than-expected core expense growth outside our guidance range for this year will likely reflect higher-than-expected variable compensation commensurate with higher revenues in our market-sensitive businesses. Consequently, we continue to expect positive operating leverage for the year. On taxes, the adjusted non-TEB effective tax rate was 20.6% this quarter, up from 19.8% last year. The increase reflects the impact of changes in earnings mix and Pillar II tax legislation, partly offset by the net impact of tax adjustments.

在不確定的宏觀經濟背景下，我們仍然謹慎地管理成本基礎，並積極尋找實現這一目標的槓桿。超出我們今年指導範圍的核心費用成長高於預期，這可能反映出與我們市場敏感型業務的更高收入相稱的高於預期的浮動薪酬。因此，我們繼續預期今年的經營槓桿率為正。在稅務方面，本季調整後的非 TEB 有效稅率為 20.6%，高於去年的 19.8%。這一增長反映了盈利結構變化和第二支柱稅法的影響，但被稅收調整的淨影響部分抵消。

Turning to our Q2 segment results beginning on slide 13. Personal Banking reported earnings of $1.6 billion. Focusing on Personal Banking Canada, net income was up 15% year over year. Excluding HSBC Canada, Personal Banking Canada's net income rose 8% year over year as strong operating leverage of approximately 6% was partly offset by higher provisions for credit loss. Personal Banking deficiency ratio improved to 41% this quarter, underpinned by strong revenue growth.

從第 13 張投影片開始介紹我們第二季的分部業績。個人銀行業務獲利 16 億美元。以加拿大個人銀行業務為重點，淨收入年增 15%。不包括匯豐加拿大，加拿大個人銀行業務的淨收入年增 8%，因為約 6% 的強勁營運槓桿被更高的信貸損失準備金部分抵銷。受強勁營收成長的支撐，本季度個人銀行業務虧空率改善至 41%。

Higher year-over-year revenues, excluding HSBC Canada, benefited from a 14% increase in net interest income and an 8% increase in non-interest income. We are maintaining the sub-40% efficiency ratio target noted at our Investor Day. However, as a reminder, benefits from the purchase accounting accretion of fair value adjustments from the HSBC Canada transaction are expected to largely run off by Q2 2026.

不包括匯豐加拿大在內的營收年增得益於淨利息收入成長 14% 和非利息收入成長 8%。我們維持投資者日上提出的 40% 以下的效率比率目標。不過，需要提醒的是，匯豐加拿大交易的購買會計公允價值調整增值所帶來的收益預計將在 2026 年第二季基本消失。

Turning to Slide 14. Commercial Banking net income of $597 million rose 3% from a year ago. Results were impacted this quarter by an increase in Stage 1 and 2 provisions. On a pre-provision, pre-tax basis, earnings were up 25%, or 11%, excluding HSBC Canada, driven by solid average volume growth, offset by lower credit fees and higher expenses, mainly reflecting higher staff related costs. Excluding HSBC Canada, average deposits and loans growth were strong at 10% and 9% year-over-year, respectively.

翻到幻燈片 14。商業銀行淨收入 5.97 億美元，較上年成長 3%。本季業績受到第一階段和第二階段撥備增加的影響。在撥備前、稅前基礎上，不包括匯豐加拿大，盈利增長了 25% 或 11%，這得益於穩健的平均交易量增長，但被信貸費用的降低和費用的增加所抵消，主要反映了員工相關成本的增加。除匯豐加拿大外，平均存款和貸款成長強勁，分別年增 10% 和 9%。

Turning to Wealth Management on slide 15. Net income of $929 million rose 11% from a year ago, driven by strong growth in fee-based client assets across our businesses, benefiting from market appreciation and net new assets.

前往第 15 張投影片上的財富管理。淨收入 9.29 億美元，較上年同期成長 11%，這得益於我們各項業務的收費客戶資產的強勁成長，受益於市場升值和淨新資產。

We added $6.5 billion in net new assets across our Canadian Wealth advisory business, reflecting the benefits of the holistic strategies we highlighted at our Investor Day. Global Asset Management net sales were slightly negative this quarter as a result of net outflows from institutional clients largely due to one client mandate. These outflows, however, were partly offset by a fifth consecutive quarter in positive retail fund inflows as we continue to grow our leading market share in Canada.

我們的加拿大財富諮詢業務增加了 65 億美元的淨新資產，反映了我們在投資者日強調的整體策略的好處。本季全球資產管理淨銷售額略為負值，主要由於一項客戶授權導致機構客戶淨流出。然而，隨著我們在加拿大的領先市場份額繼續擴大，這些資金流出部分被連續第五個季度的正零售基金流入所抵消。

Higher segment revenue was partly offset by higher variable compensation, commensurate with increased results and higher staff-related costs. City National generated USD88 million in adjusted earnings, up 21% from last year. We are encouraged by the momentum we are seeing and remain focused on enhancing City National's profitability.

更高的分部收入被更高的浮動薪酬部分抵消，這與業績成長和員工相關成本增加相一致。City National 調整後收益為 8,800 萬美元，較去年同期成長 21%。我們對所看到的勢頭感到鼓舞，並將繼續致力於提高 City National 的盈利能力。

Turning to our Capital Markets results on slide 16. Net income of $1.2 billion decreased 5% from last year, reflecting a 1% decline in pre-provision pretax earnings off a strong second quarter last year, and a higher effective tax rate this year. Global Markets revenue was up 23% year-over-year as a volatile market backdrop drove higher client activity, particularly in our equity and FX trading businesses across all regions. Corporate investment banking revenue was down 7% from last year.

轉向幻燈片 16 上的資本市場結果。淨收入為 12 億美元，較去年同期下降 5%，反映出去年第二季強勁的撥備前稅前收益下降 1%，以及今年有效稅率較高。由於動盪的市場背景推動了客戶活動的增加，尤其是我們所有地區的股票和外匯交易業務，全球市場收入較去年同期成長 23%。企業投資銀行收入較去年同期下降了7%。

Investment banking revenue was down 22%, reflecting lower M&A activity across all regions. The second quarter of last year was very strong due to the timing of several large M&A deals that closed in the quarter. Lending and transaction banking revenue was up 8%, underpinned by higher lending revenue, primarily in Europe.

投資銀行收入下降 22%，反映出所有地區的併購活動減少。去年第二季表現非常強勁，因為該季度完成了幾筆大型併購交易。貸款和交易銀行收入成長 8%，主要得益於歐洲的貸款收入增加。

Turning to slide 17. Insurance net income of $211 million was up 19% from last year, mainly due to higher insurance service results from improved claims experience. Results also benefited from higher insurance investment results on lower capital funding costs and favorable investment-related experience. Lastly, results for corporate support in the quarter included higher-than-normal severance costs, representing approximately half of the total severance incurred this quarter.

翻到第 17 張投影片。保險淨收入為 2.11 億美元，較去年同期成長 19%，主要由於理賠經驗改善導致保險服務績效提高。績效也受惠於較低的資本融資成本和良好的投資相關經驗所帶來的較高的保險投資績效。最後，本季企業支援結果包括高於正常水準的遣散費用，約佔本季遣散費用總額的一半。

As we look forward, we continue to expect corporate support to generate a net loss of $100 million to $150 million per quarter.

展望未來，我們仍預期企業支持每季將產生 1 億至 1.5 億美元的淨虧損。

Before closing, I want to note a couple of disclosure updates in our analyst slides. We have provided new disclosures related to the performance of our U.S. region, which we highlighted as a key geography at our Investor Day.

在結束之前，我想指出我們分析師幻燈片中的幾項揭露更新。我們提供了與美國地區業績相關的新披露信息，我們在投資者日上強調美國地區是一個重點地區。

Secondly, while we commit to providing updates on synergies related to the acquisition of HSBC Canada, this is the last quarter we'll provide detailed financials as the acquired business becomes fully integrated into comparable periods.

其次，雖然我們承諾提供與收購匯豐加拿大相關的協同效應的最新信息，但這是我們提供詳細財務數據的最後一個季度，因為收購的業務將完全融入可比時期。

Lastly, we will look to provide annual updates on our Investor Day targets every fourth quarter. To conclude despite the market and macroeconomic uncertainty, we delivered strong results this quarter. We are maintaining the annualized guidance provided last quarter on net interest income and core expense growth, while continuing to drive towards the medium-term targets we outlined at our Investor Day. Our performance reflects the resilience of our diversified earning streams and financial strength, all of which position us to navigate the quarters ahead.

最後，我們將在每第四季提供投資者日目標的年度更新。總而言之，儘管市場和宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們本季仍取得了強勁的業績。我們維持上季提供的淨利息收入和核心支出成長的年度化指引，同時繼續努力實現我們在投資者日概述的中期目標。我們的業績反映了我們多元化獲利來源和財務實力的韌性，所有這些都使我們能夠應對未來幾季的挑戰。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Graeme.

現在，我將把發言權交給 Graeme。

Thank you, Katherine, and good morning, everyone. I'll now discuss our allowances in the context of the current macroeconomic environment and ongoing trade uncertainty. After a stronger-than-expected start to the year, Canadian and US economic indicators softened over the second quarter, with momentum stalled by global trade uncertainty. U.S. trade policy and bouts of market volatility are creating uncertain conditions, increasing the yards of recession in North America.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳，大家早安。現在，我將在當前宏觀經濟環境和持續的貿易不確定性背景下討論我們的配額。今年年初，加拿大和美國的經濟指標強於預期，但第二季卻出現疲軟，全球貿易不確定性導致成長動能受阻。美國貿易政策和市場波動正在創造不確定的條件，增加北美經濟衰退的風險。

Although tariffs imposed on Canada were not as severe and broad-based as initially expected, global and sector-specific impacts are creating economic risks, including reduced trade, higher input costs and supply chain disruptions. The final form of tariffs is still unknown, and it is too soon to know how they will work through the economy. Against this backdrop, we continued to lean on our robust credit provisioning process to inform our allowances. As a reminder, we are not managing to one scenario or forecast.

儘管對加拿大徵收的關稅並不像最初預期的那樣嚴重和廣泛，但全球和特定行業的影響正在造成經濟風險，包括貿易減少、投入成本上升和供應鏈中斷。關稅的最終形式仍不得而知，現在判斷其將如何影響經濟還為時過早。在此背景下，我們繼續依靠強大的信貸撥備流程來指導我們的準備金分配。提醒一下，我們並不是針對一種情境或預測進行管理。

Within our IFRS 9 framework, we employ five separate scenarios, a base case, an optimistic scenario, and three downside series of varying severity. This allows us to better handle forecasting uncertainty and incorporate a larger range of potential risks.

在我們的 IFRS 9 框架內，我們採用了五種不同的情景，即基準情景、樂觀情景和三個不同嚴重程度的下行系列。這使我們能夠更好地處理預測不確定性並納入更大範圍的潛在風險。

Compared to last quarter, our base case reflects a greater slowdown in the North American economy from tariffs already known and imposed, which we expect will be in place for at least six months before easing. We expect Canada and the US will narrowly avoid a recession as higher inflation and unemployment are expected to be offset by interest rate reductions in both countries, providing relief to borrowers and stimulating investments.

與上一季相比，我們的基本預測反映出北美經濟因已知和已實施的關稅而出現更大放緩，我們預計這些關稅將持續至少六個月才會放鬆。我們預期加拿大和美國將勉強避免經濟衰退，因為預計兩國的降息將抵消較高的通膨和失業率，從而減輕借款人的負擔並刺激投資。

Given the trade-related uncertainty, we implemented a new trade disruption downside scenario this quarter, which replaces our previous oil & gas downside scenario. This new scenario reflects the potential for a severe North American recession driven by an escalating global trade war and rising geopolitical risk, reflecting a rapid rise in unemployment, higher inflation, disruptions in supply chains and a sharp decrease in asset prices. The trade disruption scenario and other downside scenarios help us evaluate risks that we have not yet observed. Given the high degree of the geopolitical and economic uncertainty, we have reduced the weighting of our base case and reallocated it to our trade disruption scenario.

鑑於貿易相關的不確定性，我們本季實施了新的貿易中斷下行情景，以取代我們先前的石油和天然氣下行情景。這一新情景反映了受全球貿易戰升級和地緣政治風險上升的驅動，北美可能陷入嚴重的經濟衰退，導致失業率快速上升、通膨上升、供應鏈中斷以及資產價格大幅下跌。貿易中斷情境和其他下行情境幫助我們評估尚未觀察到的風險。鑑於地緣政治和經濟不確定性很高，我們降低了基準情境的權重，並將其重新分配到貿易中斷情境中。

We would expect to decrease the weighting on our downside scenarios as and when there is greater certainty of RBC tariff-related outcomes and those are captured in our base case scenario. In the retail portfolio, clients continue to demonstrate resilience with credit performance improving as interest rate cuts and wage growth have made easier to service debt.

當 RBC 關稅相關結果更加確定並且這些結果被納入我們的基本情況情境中時，我們預計會減少下行情境的權重。在零售投資組合中，由於利率降低和薪資成長使得償還債務變得更容易，客戶繼續表現出韌性，信貸績效有所改善。

Mortgage renewal repricing and refinancing risk have played out better than we anticipated. Housing prices have also generally held up well. While we are seeing more balanced conditions in the Canadian housing market, with improving home affordability due to lower interest rates and rising inventory levels.

抵押貸款續約重新定價和再融資風險的表現比我們預期的要好。房價也整體保持良好。而我們看到加拿大房地產市場狀況更加平衡，由於利率降低和庫存水準上升，住房負擔能力有所提高。

We are monitoring risks, including risk of further slowdown in the condo segment and certain regions harder hit by economic slowdown. We remain well provisioned on performing loans in the home equity finance portfolio. We have built higher allowances in segments of the housing market where we see higher risk. We also continue to monitor our condo developer portfolio as new condo sales cool off. For context, our exposure to high-rise condo developers represents only about 1% of total loans and acceptances.

我們正在監控風險，包括公寓市場進一步放緩的風險以及某些地區受到經濟放緩的嚴重打擊的風險。我們在房屋淨值融資組合中仍然為正常貸款準備了充足的準備金。我們對房地產市場中風險較高的部分設立了更高的補貼。隨著新公寓銷售降溫，我們也將繼續監控我們的公寓開發商組合。就背景而言，我們對高層公寓開發商的投資僅佔貸款和承兌匯票總額的 1% 左右。

This portfolio has a very strong credit profile that reflects our focus on top-tier developers, supported by prudent underwriting standards, such as minimum pre-sales backed up buyer deposits, minimum borrower equity and outside recourse carrying sufficient liquidity to support the project.

該投資組合具有非常強勁的信用狀況，反映了我們對頂級開發商的關注，並以審慎的承保標準為支撐，例如最低預售支持的買方存款、最低借款人權益和具有足夠流動性以支持專案的外部追索權。

Turning to slide 19. We took a total of $568 million, or 23 basis points, of provisions on performing loans this quarter, an increase of $500 million from the prior quarter, mainly reflecting unfavorable changes to our scenario weights, our macroeconomic forecast, and credit quality. The significant increase in provisions on performing loans is meant to capture a broad range of potential outcomes due to the height and uncertainty I spoke to earlier. As a reference point, the ratio of ACL to total loans and acceptances is 74 basis points while we reached a COVID peak of 89 basis points in 2020. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter when we added reserves and performing loans, resulting in a total ACL of $7.5 billion.

翻到第 19 張投影片。本季度，我們對正常貸款提列了總計 5.68 億美元（23 個基點）的撥備，較上一季度增加 5 億美元，主要反映了我們的情景權重、宏觀經濟預測和信貸品質的不利變化。大幅增加對正常貸款的撥備是為了涵蓋由於我之前提到的高度和不確定性而產生的各種潛在結果。作為參考點，ACL 與貸款和承兌匯票總額之比為 74 個基點，而 2020 年 COVID 疫情高峰時我們達到了 89 個基點。這是我們連續第 12 季增加儲備和正常貸款，ACL 總額達到 75 億美元。

Moving to Slide 20. Gross impaired loans of $8.9 billion were up $1.1 billion, or 10 basis points, from last quarter, primarily driven by Commercial Banking and Capital Markets. In Capital Markets, we saw new formations in the U.S. commercial real estate office portfolio, reflecting continued softness in U.S. office market conditions.

移至投影片 20。總減損貸款為 89 億美元，較上一季增加 11 億美元，即 10 個基點，主要受商業銀行和資本市場推動。在資本市場，我們看到美國商業房地產辦公大樓投資組合出現了新的變化，反映出美國辦公大樓市場狀況持續疲軟。

In Commercial Banking, while new formations increased $512 million quarter over quarter, the majority of this increase was driven by administrative factors that have subsequently been resolved. The largest ongoing impairment this quarter was related to the insolvency of a large retailer in Canada, where we had related commercial real estate exposure.

在商業銀行領域，雖然新設立銀行數量環比增加了 5.12 億美元，但這一增長大部分是由行政因素推動的，這些因素隨後已解決。本季最大的持續減損與加拿大一家大型零售商的破產有關，我們在該零售商處有相關的商業房地產風險敞口。

Turning to slide 21. PCL on impaired loans of 35 basis points was down 4 basis points, or $133 million, quarter-over-quarter with lower provisions across most segments.

翻到第 21 張投影片。PCL 的減損貸款為 35 個基點，較上季下降 4 個基點，即 1.33 億美元，大多數部門的撥備均有所下降。

In Personal Banking, provisions were down $17 million, driven by lower provisions in other personal lending and residential mortgages. Consumer clients continue to show resilience, but higher unemployment is expected to lead to higher losses in our unsecured portfolios. In our commercial banking portfolio, provisions were down $22 million, reflecting a moderation in PCL from the HSBC Canada commercial portfolio as we had anticipated.

個人銀行業務的撥備減少了 1700 萬美元，原因是其他個人貸款和住宅抵押貸款的撥備減少。消費者客戶繼續表現出韌性，但失業率上升預計會導致我們的無擔保投資組合損失增加。在我們的商業銀行投資組合中，撥備減少了 2,200 萬美元，這反映了匯豐加拿大商業投資組合中 PCL 的減少，正如我們預期的那樣。

Overall, the commercial portfolio continues to be impacted by softer economic conditions and consumer spending in Canada. We expect PCL in the commercial segment to remain elevated in the coming quarters, considering the added uncertainty from tariffs.

總體而言，商業投資組合持續受到加拿大經濟狀況疲軟和消費者支出的影響。考慮到關稅帶來的額外不確定性，我們預計未來幾季商業領域的 PCL 將保持在高位。

In Capital Markets, provisions were down $100 million as we had a large provision on one account and the other services sector in Q1, was partially offset by a few new impairments in the U.S. office real estate this quarter.

在資本市場，撥備減少了 1 億美元，因為我們在第一季對一個帳戶和其他服務部門提列了大量撥備，但本季度美國辦公房地產的一些新減值部分抵消了這一減少。

Within our broader commercial real estate portfolio, headwinds still exist and will continue to play out over an extended period. As we have seen, impairments can be uneven and less predictable on a quarterly basis. However, realized losses have been well contained on the back of our strong client base and underwriting standards.

在我們更廣泛的商業房地產投資組合中，逆風仍然存在，並將持續一段時間。正如我們所見，季度減損可能不均衡且難以預測。然而，由於我們強大的客戶基礎和承保標準，實際損失得到了很好的控制。

To conclude, despite the uncertainty in the macroeconomic and policy environment, we are pleased with the overall diversification and performance of our portfolios. While sustained trade uncertainty could create recessionary conditions, the range of outcomes are well within the stressed and downside scenarios we currently consider, giving us confidence in our financial resilience through the cycle.

總而言之，儘管宏觀經濟和政策環境存在不確定性，但我們對投資組合的整體多樣化和表現感到滿意。儘管持續的貿易不確定性可能造成經濟衰退，但其結果範圍完全在我們目前考慮的壓力和下行情景之內，這讓我們對整個週期的金融韌性充滿信心。

We are navigating this uncertainty from a position of strength, with PCL expected to be manageable under multiple scenarios. While lower PCL on impaired loans this quarter was positive and within our expectations, we are prudently building reserves to account for the uncertainty ahead. To date, we are seeing some slight pull forward of losses because of trade-related uncertainty, which, if sustained, they push full year losses to the higher end of our previous guidance.

我們正在以實力優勢應對這種不確定性，預計 PCL 在多種情況下都是可控的。雖然本季度不良貸款的 PCL 降低是積極的且在我們的預期之內，但我們正在謹慎地建立儲備，以應對未來的不確定性。到目前為止，由於貿易相關的不確定性，我們看到損失略有增加，如果這種情況持續下去，全年損失將達到我們先前預期的較高水準。

However, we expect the impact of tariffs to play out mostly in 2026, potentially pushing peak Stage 3 credit losses into fiscal 2026. Moving forward, the likelihood, timing and direction of allowances in peak PCL will continue to be dependent on the extent and duration of tariffs, retaliatory measures, availability of fiscal support measures, magnitude of change in employment rates, the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates and commercial real estate prices.

然而，我們預期關稅的影響將主要在 2026 年顯現，並可能將第三階段的信貸損失高峰推至 2026 財年。展望未來，尖峰PCL配額的可能性、時間和方向將繼續取決於關稅的幅度和持續時間、報復措施、財政支持措施的可用性、就業率的變化幅度、利率和商業房地產價格的變化方向和幅度。

As always, we continue to proactively manage risk through the cycle and we remain well capitalized to withstand a broad range of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes.

像往常一樣，我們將繼續在整個週期中積極管理風險，並保持充足的資本以抵禦各種宏觀經濟和地緣政治結果。

With that, operator, let's open the lines for Q&A.

接線員，好了，讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

（操作員指示）Gabriel Dechaine，國家銀行金融。

I'd like to ask about your increase in gross impaired loans. You did mention that the big chunk of that was tied to large Canadian retailer. Thanks for that. How much discretion are you using to classify loans as impaired because one perspective is that maybe this is Royal-specific issue. We've seen a couple of quarters of higher GILs.

我想問一下貴公司總減損貸款增加的情況。您確實提到過，其中很大一部分與加拿大大型零售商有關。謝謝。您使用多大的自由裁量權來將貸款歸類為受損貸款，因為有一種觀點認為，這可能是皇家特有的問題。我們已經看到幾個季度的 GIL 有所上升。

But maybe the bank is just being a bit more proactive in how they classify something as impaired. They could still be paying you, but you're assessing the risk and deciding let's classify as impaired. So you're more conservative in a sense than maybe another bank might be?

但也許銀行只是在將某物歸類為受損資產時更加積極主動一些。他們可能仍會向您付款，但您正在評估風險並決定將其歸類為受損。所以從某種意義上來說，你們比其他銀行更保守？

Gabriel it's Graeme. I'll take that. Thanks for the question. Some broader context on the GIL build this quarter. We just were over $1 billion increase quarter-on-quarter.

加布里埃爾，我是格雷姆。我會接受的。謝謝你的提問。本季度 GIL 構建的一些更廣泛的背景。我們的季度環比成長剛超過 10 億美元。

As I noted in my speech, about 40% of that was related to some administrative concerns and those have all been resolved subsequently. So the overall build isn't quite maybe as large as the headline relates to. To your question on kind of discretion, again, I can't speak to what others do in their processes. I would say we have very well-defined processes and rules and how we -- as when and how we determine when something is impaired. Those rules, and when we impair something, isn't strictly driven on when a company stops paying or not. It would be on our forward views of that company as well. And so some of the companies we have put into impaired loan status over the last two quarters are still paying interest to us. We then, in turn, take that and just build that into our reserves as we receive that interest. So there is some discretion in that regard. But I would say we're very consistent in our processes we certainly haven't changed our approach in that in recent quarters.

正如我在演講中提到的，其中大約40％與一些行政問題有關，這些問題後來都得到了解決。因此，整體建設可能並不像標題所說的那麼大。對於你提出的關於自由裁量權的問題，我再次無法談論其他人在他們的流程中做了什麼。我想說，我們有非常明確的流程和規則，以及我們如何——何時以及如何確定某些東西是否受損。這些規則以及我們何時損害某些事物並不嚴格取決於公司何時停止付款。這也影響了我們對該公司的前瞻性看法。因此，過去兩個季度我們將其列為不良貸款狀態的一些公司仍在向我們支付利息。然後，當我們收到利息時，我們就會將其存入我們的儲備金中。因此，在這方面有一定的自由裁量權。但我想說的是，我們的流程非常一致，最近幾季我們當然沒有改變我們的方法。

And I would just also note on the impaired. Again, the wholesale, it just can be a bit more episodic quarter-to-quarter, it's not quite as consistent in the way retail is. I think if you go back to the latter half of last year where we had, I would say, very low impaired in PCL in our wholesale businesses. We know at the time that, that was probably not represented the cycle either.

我還要指出的是，這涉及殘疾人的問題。再說一次，批發業務每季的波動性可能更大一些，不像零售業務那麼穩定。我想，如果你回顧去年下半年，我們會說我們的批發業務中 PCL 的減損非常低。我們當時就知道，這可能也不代表週期。

And so I think, again, you just kind of look quarter-to-quarter and maybe how these trends over a longer period. I don't think we saw this quarter was something unique or kind of really indicative of where we see things trending.

因此，我認為，你只需要看一下每季的情況，也許還可以看一下長期趨勢。我認為本季我們看到的並不是一些獨特現象，或不能真正顯示我們看到的趨勢。

Okay. And can you clarify that administrative comment? So 40% of the billion increases administrative or technical, so they've been resolved? So is that going to go in the other direction next quarter? Is that how it works?

好的。您能澄清一下這個行政評論嗎？那麼，十億增加的 40% 是行政或技術方面的，這些問題已經解決了嗎？那麼下個季度情況會朝另一個方向發展嗎？就是這樣嗎？

Specifically directly and indirectly to us just kind of finalizing some of the final pieces of integrating HSBC into our processes. And as we work through the final kind of credit elements of that there were some queues particularly related to some term loans that were up for renewal that just didn't get renewed on our normal timelines, those tripped into impaired. None of those were credit issues. Those have all been something renewed and resolved. And so yes, those will go the other direction next quarter.

具體來說，直接和間接地對我們來說只是完成了將匯豐銀行整合到我們流程中的一些最後部分。當我們處理最後一種信貸要素時，出現了一些問題，特別是與一些需要續期的定期貸款有關的貸款，這些貸款沒有按照我們的正常時間表進行續期，因此陷入了困境。這些都不是信用問題。這些都是已經更新並解決的事情。是的，下個季度這些將會朝著另一個方向發展。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I wanted to follow up actually, Graeme, with your own credit. So sorry if I missed this, I'm not sure if you talked about what your expectations were on impaired PCLs for the back half of the year? And just talk to us as you think about peak PCLs being pushed into 2026, are there new areas of stress within the books? So are there areas within sort of the commercial book where you're seeing stress? Maybe due to tariffs or a prolonged kind of a slow economy that are emerging, which informing that.

格雷姆，實際上我想跟進一下你的功勞。如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，我不確定您是否談到了您對下半年受損 PCL 的預期是什麼？請與我們談談，您認為 PCL 的峰值將被推遲到 2026 年，書中是否存在新的壓力領域？那麼，在商業書籍領域中，您是否感受到壓力？這可能是由於關稅或正在出現的長期經濟放緩所致。

I'm just trying to think about as we think about all these macro reserve build, is it just conservative management of building reserves? Or do you have a sense of a line of sight on how this plays out and the fares are maybe already beginning to emerge where future losses could come through?

我只是在想，當我們考慮所有這些宏觀儲備建設時，這是否只是儲備建設的保守管理？或者您對這種情況將如何發展有所了解，票價是否已經開始顯現，未來可能出現虧損？

Yes. Thanks, Ebrahim. Just to provide a few different pieces on that. In our slide there on the ACL build, the break down on drivers of what's driving that ACL rate so the three really big component parts there.

是的。謝謝，易卜拉欣。僅提供一些不同的內容。在我們關於 ACL 建構的幻燈片中，對推動 ACL 速率的因素進行了細分，因此那裡有三個非常重要的組成部分。

One is credit migration. So that's a direct reflection of what we're seeing with our clients their risk profiles, if you will, their financial profiles. And this quarter was about 20% of that build, and that's kind of the line in fact, a little bit lower than what we've been seeing in prior quarters. So I wouldn't say at this point we're seeing newly emerging kind of credit pockets of concern, at least directly to our client base. 80% of the build is really more on kind of our go-forward view and just the uncertainty around that go-forward view, right?

一是信用遷移。因此，這直接反映了我們所看到的客戶的風險狀況，或者說他們的財務狀況。本季的增幅約為 20%，實際上比前幾季的增幅略低。因此，我不會說我們現在看到了令人擔憂的新出現的信貸領域，至少對我們的客戶群而言是如此。 80％的建設實際上更多地基於我們的前瞻性觀點以及圍繞這種前瞻性觀點的不確定性，對嗎？

So our base case was weaker this quarter. Not hugely weaker, but certainly, we've increased our views on unemployment going forward. We pulled back a little bit of our views on HPI and GDP. And so that's contributing to it. That's just reflecting the current uncertainty in the market right now and there is some real direct economic impacts of that.

因此本季我們的基本情況較弱。雖然沒有大幅減弱，但可以肯定的是，我們對未來失業的看法有所增強。我們稍微收回了對房屋價格指數 (HPI) 和 GDP 的看法。所以這對它有所貢獻。這只是反映了當前市場存在的不確定性，並且確實會產生一些直接的經濟影響。

But the third part was just really increasing the weights. We introduced this new scenario is really try and target of uncertainty we're seeing. That by itself didn't really increase our reserves because we already had some fairly pessimistic series in there, but it was really attributing more weight to that. And the more weight is just trying to address the uncertain environment and get ahead of that to some degree.

但第三部分其實只是增加重量。我們引入這個新場景實際上是為了嘗試並針對我們所看到的不確定性。這本身並沒有真正增加我們的儲備，因為我們已經有一些相當悲觀的系列，但它確實為此增加了更多的權重。而增加重量只是為了嘗試解決不確定的環境並在一定程度上領先於它。

Understood. And maybe I guess just one for you, Katherine, around rate sensitivity as we think about on a go-forward basis. I appreciate you are sort of guiding to NII growth. Perhaps If you can tell us what would drive NII into the low double digits versus high single digits? Is it balance sheet growth; loan growth needs to pick up to get us there?

明白了。凱瑟琳，我想也許你只需要回答一個關於利率敏感度的問題，因為我們要考慮的是未來的發展。我很欣賞您對 NII 成長的指導。也許您可以告訴我們是什麼原因導致 NII 的成長速度從高個位數下降到低兩位數？是資產負債表成長嗎？貸款成長需要加快才能實現這一目標嗎？

And then as we think about future sort of Bank of Canada rate cuts, how do you sort of think about the direct impact on NII or relative to what the Bank of Canada, or the Fed does? And then I see the disclosure on slide 26 but would love some color around that.

然後，當我們考慮加拿大銀行未來的降息時，您如何看待對 NII 的直接影響或相對於加拿大銀行或聯準會的行動的影響？然後我看到了第 26 張投影片上的揭露內容，但希望能有一些顏色。

Ebrahim, thanks for the question. So in relation to our outlook on the NII excluding trading, maybe I'll just take you through our underlying assumptions on how we arrived at that guidance. And as I go through that, you'll get a sense of what could move us in that range. So if I start off with volume, our volume, we're holding to the guidance that we disclosed actually back in Q4.

易卜拉欣，謝謝你的提問。因此，關於我們對不包括交易的 NII 的展望，也許我會向您介紹我們得出該指導的基本假設。當我經歷這一切時，你就會明白什麼可以推動我們進入這個範圍。因此，如果我從銷量開始，我們的銷量，我們會堅持我們在第四季度實際披露的指導。

So on a mortgage basis, we are still targeting low single digits. And as Dave would have mentioned in his remarks, we're cautious on the outlook on that front, but we're still seeing progress in that low single digits.

因此，就抵押貸款而言，我們仍以較低的個位數為目標。正如戴夫在他的演講中提到的那樣，我們對這方面的前景持謹慎態度，但我們仍然看到低個位數的進展。

As it relates to commercial for the full year, looking to still hold volume at high single digits. But for the second half, again, given the cautiousness that we are seeing from some clients, we're expecting that to be more towards mid to high in the second half of the year.

由於它與全年商業有關，因此希望仍能保持較高的個位數交易量。但對於下半年，鑑於我們看到一些客戶的謹慎態度，我們預計下半年的成長將更加趨向中高水準。

And then on our corporate banking, continuing to see moderate growth, and we're expecting that to hold as we go through the second half of the year. So overall, on the volumes, those are our expectations where it could shift is really around the client behavior for the second half of the year and around the cautiousness and how we see that play out. As we move to NIM, that was obviously another key part of our guidance. A couple of items there. So on the tractor front, continue to see that positive moving through. What could continue to underpin that is the strong growth in deposits that we're seeing, which is obviously key to our overall deposit acquisition strategy. And so what we're seeing with that higher growth is we're putting more into tractors. It's not an immediate impact, but it's positive overall.

然後，我們的公司銀行業務持續保持溫和成長，我們預計這種成長態勢將持續到下半年。因此，總體而言，就交易量而言，這些是我們的預期，其變化實際上取決於下半年的客戶行為、謹慎程度以及我們如何看待這種變化。當我們轉向 NIM 時，這顯然是我們指導的另一個關鍵部分。那裡有幾件物品。因此，在拖拉機方面，我們繼續看到積極的進展。我們所看到的存款強勁成長可以繼續支撐這一點，這顯然是我們整體存款獲取策略的關鍵。因此，我們看到更高的成長意味著我們在拖拉機上的投入更多。這雖然不是直接的影響，但總體來說是正面的。

As I said in my remarks, we have the seasonal movement, so that will impact NIM as we go forward. And then, I guess, a couple of the unknowns that I've spoken about before, really ties into the mix shift as well as competitive behaviors.

正如我在演講中所說，我們有季節性變動，因此這將對我們未來的 NIM 產生影響。然後，我想，我之前談到的幾個未知因素確實與混合轉變以及競爭行為有關。

On the mix shift, we've been seeing that as a positive tailwind as we're seeing GICs start to come down. We're seeing the nonterm maturities continue to grow and clients are holding their funds there. And so that's accretive to NIM.

在混合轉變中，我們看到 GIC 開始下降，這是一個積極的順風。我們看到非定期貸款期限持續增加，客戶也把資金存放在那裡。因此，這對 NIM 有增值作用。

So as we go throughout the rest of the year, we continue to see that trend that would be accretive. And then on the competition front, we continue to see pressures on the GIC front. A little bit on the mortgages, it's starting to pull back. But depending on how that plays out to the second half of the year, that's another item that could move us in our guidance on the net interest income excluding trading.

因此，隨著今年剩餘時間的推進，我們將繼續看到這種成長趨勢。在競爭方面，我們繼續看到 GIC 方面的壓力。抵押貸款方面，它開始有所回落。但這取決於下半年的進展情況，這可能會影響我們對不包括交易的淨利息收入的預測。

Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

馬裡奧門東卡，道明證券。

Graeme, you sound a little bit more cautious on credit than I'm hearing from other banks. Like your point about PCLs peaking in 2026 is a little different. We're hearing slightly different sentiment from the other banks. This morning, you probably would have seen that the U.S. Court of International Trade has sort of strike down the reciprocal tariffs, the 10% baseline tariffs.

格雷姆，聽起來你在信貸方面比我聽到的其他銀行要謹慎一些。就像您關於 PCL 在 2026 年達到高峰的觀點有些不同。我們聽到了其他銀行略有不同的觀點。今天早上，你可能已經看到美國國際貿易法院已經取消了互惠關稅，即 10% 的基準關稅。

I know this is hot off the press, but does that change your outlook? If, in fact, this whole tariff scare was just one giant head fake, would that build greater confidence for you on PCLs for Royal?

我知道這是剛剛報導的熱點，但這會改變你的觀點嗎？如果事實上整個關稅恐慌只是一個巨大的騙局，那麼這會讓你對 Royal 的 PCL 更有信心嗎？

Mario, it's a fair question. It's Dave, and I'll start on the macro side and then hand it to Graeme. And obviously, when we said our scenarios, a number of things, we set our scenarios well over a month ago. The world has evolved and continues to be volatile, and that's part of our challenge and part of the reason we built formations is the uncertainty in the world around us. We still have to go through CUSMA renegotiation with the US, and we still don't know the impact on the auto industry. We don't know the impact on the dairy industry and agriculture. So I guess while the short-term reciprocal tariffs appear to be legal, it doesn't mean that we have an overall extended agreement with the United States on future trade and therefore, very much involved in that, and we have to kind of manage that going forward.

馬裡奧，這是一個公平的問題。我是戴夫，我將從宏觀開始，然後交給格雷姆。顯然，當我們談到我們的場景時，很多事情我們在一個多月前就已經設定好了。世界已經發展並且持續動盪，這是我們面臨的挑戰的一部分，也是我們建立陣型的原因之一，因為我們周圍世界的不確定性。我們還需要與美國進行CUSMA重新談判，我們還不知道這對汽車產業的影響。我們不知道這對乳製品業和農業會造成什麼影響。因此，我認為，雖然短期互惠關稅看起來是合法的，但這並不意味著我們與美國就未來貿易達成了全面的延長協議，因此，我們必須在很大程度上參與其中，並在未來對其進行管理。

So I think our uncertainty is still applies in the medium term that we still have to progress through a number of other elements. So I think it's fair, some of the shorter-term volatility and reciprocal tariffs and the cost of that.

因此我認為我們的不確定性在中期內仍然存在，我們仍需克服許多其他因素。所以我認為一些短期波動和互惠關稅及其成本是公平的。

All of this is creating uncertainty, right? It's creating uncertainty in allocating capital from mortgages right through to M&A. And therefore, while this cloud overhangs the Canadian economy, it's having a real impact. And we think the momentum and the potential of the economy going forward. So I still don't think we're shaking the overall uncertainty level just because of that ruling last night, but it helps.

所有這些都造成了不確定性，對嗎？這給從抵押貸款到併購的資本分配帶來了不確定性。因此，雖然這片陰雲籠罩著加拿大經濟，但它正在產生真正的影響。我們認為經濟未來具有發展動能和潛力。因此，我仍然不認為昨晚的裁決會改變整體的不確定性水平，但它確實有所幫助。

It helps set the stage for and a renegotiation of USMCA that we expect will happen over the coming six months. Graeme?

它為 USMCA 的重新談判奠定了基礎，我們預計該談判將在未來六個月內進行。格雷姆？

Yes. I think Dave covered it all. I mean certainly, what's transpired in May, there would be some positive signals in May that didn't exist in April, but I would also say not sure those positive signals are take anywhere towards conclusion on kind of where this is going to land. Where it's going to land or quite frankly, when it's going to land either.

是的。我認為戴夫已經涵蓋了所有內容。我的意思是，當然，五月發生的事情，會有一些四月份不存在的正面訊號，但我也想說，不確定這些正面訊號是否會對最終結果產生影響。它將在哪裡著陸，或者坦率地說，它將在什麼時候著陸。

So I think, yes, we'd have a degree of caution with that, Mario, and we'll certainly evaluate kind of what we learn in the coming months and adjust accordingly. If we feel stronger that this is going to land sooner and better than we are thinking right now, then that will lead us to kind of adjust our weights and reserves accordingly. They are intended to be dynamic. But I think at this point in time, it was prudent to be building against that uncertainty.

所以我認為，是的，我們會對此保持一定程度的謹慎，馬裡奧，我們肯定會評估我們在未來幾個月學到的東西並做出相應的調整。如果我們更堅信這個目標會比我們現在想像的更快、更好地實現，那麼我們就會相應地調整我們的權重和儲備。它們旨在具有動態性。但我認為，在目前這個時刻，採取預防措施以應對這種不確定性是明智之舉。

I think to back yo Dave here. I think it's just important that this is a Stage 1/2 provision. We haven't spent it. It's in our pocket, right? And it's halfway if we're wrong, then we will release it. So there's no downside in being cautious given this uncertainty of how we feel.

我想在這裡支持你戴夫。我認為重要的是這是第一階段/第二階段的規定。我們還沒有花掉它。它在我們的口袋裡，對吧？如果我們錯了一半，我們就會將其發布。因此，考慮到我們感覺的不確定性，謹慎行事並沒有什麼壞處。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的保羅霍爾頓 (Paul Holden)。

Two quick questions, or hopefully they're quick. First one, maybe for Derek and sort of dovetailing off what Mario just asked. Given your pipeline for, say, M&A, ECM, et cetera, and maybe some improvement in certainty around tariffs, like how quickly do you think IB activity can bounce back as the market gets more comfortable with the tariff outlook?

兩個簡單的問題，或希望它們很快。第一個，也許是針對德瑞克的，與馬裡奧剛才問的問題有點吻合。考慮到您在併購、股權資本管理等方面的準備情況，以及關稅確定性方面的一些改善，您認為隨著市場對關稅前景變得更加滿意，投資銀行活動能夠多快反彈？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Paul. I'd really break it into two things. Sort of how quickly does activity bounce back. And then how quickly does activity actually lead to consolate transactions and revenue in the business because there obviously is a time lag depending on the nature of the transaction.

當然。謝謝你的提問，保羅。我確實會把它分成兩件事。活動恢復得有多快？那麼，活動實際上多快能帶來業務中的合併交易和收入，因為根據交易的性質，顯然存在一個時間滯後。

I think if you look at where we were sitting in April at the peak of uncertainty around tariffs and the economic outlook, we saw a very short but very pronounced slowdown in activity. As Dave alluded to, there was a lot of uncertainty and clients really hit pause, whether that be on financing activity or longer-term strategic capital allocation decisions, including M&A.

我認為，如果你看看四月關稅和經濟前景不確定性達到頂峰時的情況，我們會發現經濟活動出現了非常短暫但非常明顯的放緩。正如戴夫所提到的那樣，存在著許多不確定性，客戶確實會停下來，無論是在融資活動還是長期策略資本配置決策（包括併購）方面。

As we have seen more signs of optimism, including, obviously, some of the announcements last night and this morning, we certainly are seeing a pickup in activity as we've come through recent weeks. You tend to see that in different phases. So the first is you see that pickup in your flow financing activity, whether that be DCM, ECM, high-yield issuance, term loan issuance.

由於我們看到了更多樂觀的跡象，顯然包括昨晚和今天早上的一些公告，我們確實看到最近幾週活動有所回升。您往往會在不同的階段看到這一點。因此，首先您會看到流動融資活動回升，無論是 DCM、ECM、高收益發行或定期貸款發行。

And already in May, there's been a reasonably healthy improvement in that regard, both in terms of activity, but also just client dialogue. Any of that kind of flow activity also then results in transactions being completed quite quickly. The second part then is longer term, more strategic M&A activity. We certainly are seeing an improvement in sentiment and more dialogue and lots of client dialogue going on. But where there still is uncertainty is how quickly does that actually translate into announced transactions and then what's the period of time through closing.

而到了五月份，這方面已經有了相當健康的改善，無論是在活動方面，還是在客戶對話方面。任何此類流動活動也會導致交易相當快速地完成。第二部分是長期、更具策略性的併購活動。我們確實看到情緒有所改善，對話也增多，有大量客戶對話正在進行中。但仍存在不確定性的是，這實際上能多快轉化為宣布的交易，以及完成交易需要多長時間。

I think in the month of May across all of our geographies, we've seen some very nice transaction activity and some deals being announced. But there's a lot where boards and executive management teams are still evaluating what the world is going to look like over the next 12 to 24 months. So there will be a delay in some of that coming to fruition.

我認為，五月在我們所有的地區，我們都看到了一些非常好的交易活動和一些正在宣布的交易。但許多董事會和執行管理團隊仍在評估未來 12 至 24 個月的世界將會是什麼樣子。因此，部分舉措的實現將會有所延遲。

And then obviously, depending on the sector, the nature of the transaction, closing can be anywhere from 3 months to 18 months depending on regulatory approvals or otherwise. But overall, certainly, the outlook is notably improved from where we were 6 weeks ago.

顯然，根據行業和交易性質的不同，交易完成時間可能為 3 個月到 18 個月，具體取決於監管部門的批准或其他情況。但總體而言，前景與六週前相比確實有了明顯改善。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then I'll just sneak in a second quick one, if you don't mind. For Sean. Just very strong growth in Commercial Banking and from Katherine the outlook somewhat slowing in the second half. But just maybe a reminder on where you're growing in commercial. So it looks like you're picking up some share based on what we've seen from your peer banks?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，如果您不介意的話，我會偷偷地再說一次。為了肖恩。商業銀行業務成長非常強勁，而凱瑟琳表示下半年前景將放緩。但也許只是提醒一下您在商業領域正在成長的地方。那麼，根據我們從您的同行銀行看到的情況來看，您似乎正在獲得一些市場份額？

And then two quite big difference in the net interest margin Q over Q in commercial banking versus the personal bank. So maybe just want to better understand why the NIM is going lower in commercial banking, given the strong loan growth?

商業銀行與個人銀行的淨利差Q與Q之間有相當大的差異。因此，也許只是想更好地理解，在貸款成長強勁的情況下，商業銀行的淨利差為何會下降？

thanks for the question, Paul. Maybe I'll start with the second one. It's primarily driven by the VA migrations and the shift between NIM and other income. So it's mostly offset on sort of the other side of the other contributor to revenue. On a year-over-year basis, that starts to have less of an impact as we completes in the next quarter.

謝謝你的提問，保羅。也許我會從第二個開始。這主要是由 VA 遷移以及 NIM 與其他收入之間的轉變所驅動。因此，它基本上被其他收入貢獻者所抵消。與去年同期相比，隨著下一季的結束，這種影響開始減少。

With respect to growth on the portfolio, your first question. This is the continued execution sort of a multiyear strategy to invest in coverage and underwriting expertise and structured banking expertise to drive growth in the larger segments of the portfolio. Sort of our Senior Commercial and Corporate Client Group segments. And that's been executed really well. It is also returning off of a base of underperformance in the early part of this decade.

關於投資組合的成長，這是您的第一個問題。這是一項多年期策略的持續執行，旨在投資於保險範圍和承保專業知識以及結構化銀行專業知識，以推動投資組合中較大部分的成長。屬於我們的高級商業和企業客戶群部分。而這項措施執行得非常好。它也擺脫了本世紀初表現不佳的困境。

And so on a five-year basis, our growth rate is actually very close to the industry average at about 1% greater. In terms of recency of growth, as Dave mentioned, through all the uncertainty there, we're definitely seeing sequential growth slow on a rolling four-quarter basis, for example, our quarterly sequential growth was averaging about 2.5%. In Q1, that was 1.8%. And this quarter relative to Q1, it was 1.6%. And as Katherine highlighted, our outlook is sort of in the mid-single digits to the low end of high single digits on a full year H2 basis this year, which would imply about a 1% to 1.5% sequential growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis for the next two quarters.

因此，以五年計算，我們的成長率實際上非常接近行業平均水平，高出約 1%。就近期成長而言，正如戴夫所提到的，儘管存在種種不確定性，但我們確實看到連續四個季度的環比增長放緩，例如，我們的季度環比增長平均約為 2.5%。第一季度，這一比例為 1.8%。本季相對於第一季而言為 1.6%。正如凱瑟琳所強調的，我們預計今年下半年全年的經濟成長將在個位數中段至高個位數低段之間，這意味著未來兩個季度的環比增長約為 1% 至 1.5%。

Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets.

Sohrab Movahedi，BMO 資本市場。

Okay. Graeme, roughly half of the performing build looks to have been kind of charged to the commercial bank. Can you talk a little bit about the industry sectors there that were targeted by the builds?

好的。格雷姆，大約有一半的建設成果看起來已經被記入商業銀行的帳戶了。您能否簡單談談這些建設所針對的產業領域？

Yes. Thanks, Sohrab. Yes. I think so commercial -- again, this is all about kind of the go-forward macro and how see things playing out going forward. I would say sometimes it's going to continue to put pressure on some of the same sectors that have been under pressure to date.

是的。謝謝，索拉布。是的。我認為非常商業化——再說一次，這一切都是關於未來的宏觀以及如何看待未來的事情發展。我想說，有時它會繼續對一些迄今為止一直承受壓力的行業施加壓力。

So it's very much that supply chain sector, the industrial, the manufacturing, the transportation sectors. So that's really, I would say, the core components of where we see that being hit there. We have done bottomed up analysis here to really kind of try and assess which sectors overall, we think are going to be hit most directly by tariffs.

因此，這很大程度上與供應鏈部門、工業、製造業和運輸部門有關。所以我想說，這確實是我們看到的受到衝擊的核心要素。我們在這裡進行了自下而上的分析，試圖真正評估我們認為哪些行業將受到關稅最直接的打擊。

I mean that's again a challenging exercise because those tariffs seem to change day-to-day, week-to-week, both in their magnitude and where they're going to be applied. So we go through the book really looking at those sectors that have kind of the biggest import export kind of dependencies and then within that kind of refined, which of those we think have more challenge ability to absorb costs or not.

我的意思是，這又是一項具有挑戰性的任務，因為這些關稅似乎每天、每週都在變化，無論是其幅度還是適用範圍。因此，我們仔細研究了那些對進出口依賴程度最大的產業，然後在其中進行細分，我們認為哪些產業更有能力吸收成本。

And so that's kind of the analysis we do that kind of supports that. A significant chunk of that really kind of point back to some of those same sectors that have been kind of challenged to date.

這就是我們所做的支持這一點的分析。其中很大一部分實際上可以歸咎於迄今為止受到挑戰的一些行業。

Okay. And just with Sean, staying with the commercial. I mean, your ROE, obviously, reflecting the reserve build lower than Capital Markets ROE this quarter. You have an 18% type target out there. How long do you think before you hit that 18%?

好的。和肖恩一起繼續拍攝廣告。我的意思是，您的 ROE 顯然反映出本季的儲備構建低於資本市場 ROE。您有一個 18% 類型的目標。您認為要多久才能達到那 18%？

Yes. As we articulated in our Investor Day presentation, it's a three-year target. So to your point, there's a number of contributing factors that's driven at lower recently. Obviously, the reserve build this quarter, as Katherine highlighted last quarter, the allocation of the capital methodology into the businesses was about 70 basis points. And then about 90 basis points of the reduction is also the goodwill allocation from the HSBC acquisition.

是的。正如我們在投資者日演講中所闡述的，這是一個三年目標。所以正如您所說，最近有很多因素導致價格下跌。顯然，正如凱瑟琳上個季度所強調的那樣，本季的儲備金建設，將資本方法分配到企業中約為 70 個基點。其中約90個基點的減幅也來自匯豐收購案的商譽分配。

And so our projections are to rebuild to 18% in three years.

因此，我們預計三年內這一比例將恢復至 18%。

So it would be very hard for this year anyway, right?

所以無論如何今年都會非常艱難，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Mike Rizvanovic, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Mike Rizvanovic。

Question for Graeme, and this is more of a qualitative question, but when I look at your GIL ratio on the mortgage book, I get it that it's relatively low among your peers. But it's actually deteriorated the most over the past year. And I'm sort of wondering if that's largely related to the HSBC client base coming in.

問格雷姆，這更像是一個定性問題，但是當我查看抵押貸款帳簿上的 GIL 比率時，我發現它在你的同行中相對較低。但事實上，過去一年的情況惡化最為嚴重。我想知道這是否與匯豐銀行的客戶群的加入有很大關係。

I do think there's a perception in the market that Royal's customer base, including on the retail side, tends to be a better quality, lower risk, probably better FICO score. Are you still sticking with that narrative, if you do agree with it? And is this largely HSBC related?

我確實認為，市場存在著這樣一種看法：Royal 的客戶群（包括零售客戶）往往品質更高、風險更低，FICO 評分也可能更高。如果您同意的話，您還會堅持這種說法嗎？這和匯豐銀行有很大關係嗎？

Thanks, Mike. No, I do not think that HSBC related. The client base we absorbed from HSBC is a very high-quality it actually skews higher than the rest of our consumer book and mortgage books. So though that is not driving that narrative.

謝謝，麥克。不，我不認為這與匯豐銀行有關。我們從匯豐銀行吸收的客戶群品質非常高，實際上比我們其他的消費者客戶和抵押貸款客戶的品質還要高。但這並不是推動這敘事的原因。

I think partly what's driving that is a mix question and the markets that are more challenged by kind of the higher payment environment. This would be the GPAs of the world that are really driving our impairments these days.

我認為造成這現象的部分原因是混合問題以及市場受到更高支付環境的更大挑戰。這可能是當今真正導致我們成績下降的世界 GPA。

So I think, again, overall, the quality of our client base continues to be very strong. The performance there continues to be very strong. We feel very good about that book and the structure there. And the ultimate write-offs, if you follow that through have been very low because of that. But we are seeing impairments as more clients are facing more challenges in this higher rate environment.

因此我認為，總體而言，我們的客戶群品質仍然非常強勁。那裡的表現依然非常強勁。我們對那本書及其結構感到非常滿意。如果你堅持下去，那麼最終的註銷額就會非常低。但我們看到，在這種高利率環境下，越來越多的客戶面臨更多的挑戰。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just one quick one probably for Erica. Just in terms of the mortgage business in your segment, are you able to provide at least maybe like a high level of what the revenue contribution is? So to the extent that you might have that handy? So if you look at the spread and the fees related to originations and any activity in the res book or just the mortgage book per say, could you ballpark that? Like is it 10% of revenue? Is it closer to 20% in your segment?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我還有一個簡短的問題想問 Erica。就您所在領域的房貸業務而言，您是否能夠提供至少大概的收入貢獻水準？那麼，您是否可以方便地使用它？因此，如果您查看利差和與發起相關的費用以及 res 帳簿或僅僅是抵押貸款帳簿中的任何活動，您能估算出大概的數字嗎？比如說收入的 10% 嗎？在您的細分市場中，這個比例是否接近 20%？

If I think about where we've been over the last 12 months in that mortgage book, what we're seeing is the balance that we talked about on how we think about the volume that we're putting on the books and the margins that we're putting that business on at. And I would say on a year-over-year basis, we are seeing our ability to continue to have the mortgage business start to come back from low levels of profitability when we saw our spreads really degrade to levels that probably from an ROE perspective, we need to be back up to a higher degree of ROE in the business.

如果我思考過去 12 個月我們在抵押貸款帳簿上的情況，我們看到的就是我們談論的平衡，即我們如何看待帳簿上的金額以及我們將這項業務的利潤率。我想說的是，與去年同期相比，我們看到我們的抵押貸款業務有能力繼續從低盈利水平中恢復，當我們看到我們的利差真正下降到可能從 ROE 角度來看的水平時，我們需要回到更高的 ROE 水平。

And so I think on a year-over-year basis, we continue to see green shoots in that business contributing more in the profitability of the aggregate earnings of the personal bank. But we're certainly not at the levels of profitability that we would have seen 24 months ago, 36 months ago in terms of the contribution of that mortgage book back to the earnings of the personal bank.

因此，我認為，與去年同期相比，我們繼續看到該業務的復甦跡象，為個人銀行總收益的獲利能力做出更大貢獻。但從抵押貸款對個人銀行收益的貢獻來看，我們的獲利水準肯定還沒有達到 24 個月前或 36 個月前的水準。

And so we still are balancing our growth expectations and how we're pursuing growth in the market, with the returns in that business and taking a calculated march to getting back to higher earnings from the aggregate mortgage business.

因此，我們仍在平衡我們的成長預期以及我們如何追求市場成長與該業務的回報，並採取有計劃的措施，從整體抵押貸款業務中恢復更高的收益。

So just again, I'm not sure if you're comfortable providing a ballpark number, or we can take it offline. But is 10% a reasonable number? Would the mortgage business contribute roughly 10% of the segment revenue? Or is it something a bit higher or lower than that?

所以再說一遍，我不確定您是否願意提供一個大概的數字，或者我們可以將其離線。但 10% 是一個合理的數字嗎？抵押貸款業務是否會貢獻約 10% 的部門收入？還是比這高一點或低一點？

Yes. So let's take that question offline and discuss.

是的。因此，讓我們將這個問題帶到線下並進行討論。

Lemar Persaud, Cormark Securities.

Lemar Persaud，Cormark 證券。

My question for Graham. I guess going back to last quarter, I guess the bank felt the downside scenario appropriately accounted for trade uncertainty. Can you walk me through what drove your decision to introduce another scenario? Because I would have thought that with a sufficiently conservative downside scenario before the ability to shift weight between scenarios, and layer in ECK, there would have been a very compelling reason to introduce a whole new scenario.

我的問題是問葛拉漢。我想回顧上個季度，我想銀行認為下行情景適當地解釋了貿易不確定性。您能否解釋一下是什麼促使您決定引入另一個場景？因為我認為，在能夠在場景之間轉移權重並在 ECK 中分層之前，如果有足夠保守的下行場景，那麼就有非常令人信服的理由引入一個全新的場景。

So I guess, walk me through like why you decided you need to go through the trouble of introducing a new scenario rather than using some of the levers I mentioned? Because those seem to be much simpler than introducing a new scenario. Does it feel like perhaps a trade war has a real risk of persisting far longer into the future than perhaps the banks are messaging this quarter?

所以我想，請告訴我為什麼您決定不辭辛勞地引入一個新場景，而不是使用我提到的一些手段？因為這些看起來比引入一個新場景要簡單得多。您是否覺得貿易戰有可能持續更長時間，而銀行本季傳遞的訊息可能比這更持久？

Yes. I would say, listen, where we were after Q1, remember, like, I mean, things have just started to play out literally in the early days of February, after we closed our quarter. And so -- while we had been doing analysis and using this scenario kind of in the background, as we kind of persisted through Q2 and things really amped up, I mean, really at the beginning of April with Liberation Day, like this kind of went to a whole different level of concern and uncertainty.

是的。我想說，聽著，記住我們在第一季之後的情況，就像，我的意思是，在我們結束本季之後，事情在二月初才剛開始顯現。因此，雖然我們一直在進行分析並在後台使用這種場景，但隨著我們堅持度過第二季度，情況真的加劇了，我的意思是，在 4 月初的解放日，這種情況達到了完全不同的擔憂和不確定性水平。

While we had a pessimistic scenario that was kind of broad nature and a similar severity. We really wanted to kind of invoke something that really address the current kind of concerns and what that might look like and the risks we're facing here now.

儘管我們有一個悲觀的預測，但它具有廣泛的性質和類似的嚴重性。我們確實希望採取某種措施來真正解決當前的擔憂以及我們現在面臨的風險。

Its what it didn't, by itself changed the overall numbers. It certainly does change where we're allocating reserves and really highlights the pockets of risk that we'd be more concerned about. And so not just again, it allows us to directly leverage our framework as opposed to just kind of using overlays and management judgment and kind of, I would say, a little bit more subjective ways, if you will. So I think we just like the framework we have, and we like to use that framework rather than just override it with our judgment. Thank you.

它本身並沒有改變總體數字。它確實改變了我們分配儲備金的地方，並真正凸顯了我們更擔心的風險領域。因此，它不僅允許我們直接利用我們的框架，而不是僅僅使用覆蓋和管理判斷，或者說，如果你願意的話，使用更主觀的方式。所以我認為我們只是喜歡我們擁有的框架，我們喜歡使用這個框架而不是僅僅用我們的判斷來覆蓋它。謝謝。

Okay. So I think that's our last question, and I will wrap things up. And we appreciate your comments. And as we went through the quarter, we prepared for the call today, we knew that your focus would be on or reserve build and the GILs in the portfolio. And let me just take us back to the top, though. We did show very strong pretax pre-provision growth, very strong client levels, activity levels, particularly in Personal and Commercial Banking and the deposit side, we delivered really good revenue growth. We had very strong operating leverage. And as you heard on the credit side, as we went through these scenarios and our Stage 1/2 reserve build. We knew there's conservatism. We didn't know it would be that different than our peers.

好的。所以我認為這是我們的最後一個問題，我將結束本次討論。我們感謝您的評論。當我們度過這個季度，我們為今天的電話會議做好了準備，我們知道您的重點將放在儲備建設和投資組合中的 GIL 上。不過，讓我帶我們回到頂部。我們確實表現出了非常強勁的稅前撥備前成長、非常強勁的客戶水平、活動水平，特別是在個人和商業銀行業務以及存款方面，我們實現了非常好的收入成長。我們的經營槓桿非常強。正如您在信用方面所聽到的，我們經歷了這些場景和第一階段/第二階段的儲備建設。我們知道存在保守主義。我們不知道它會與我們的同齡人有如此大的不同。

At the end of the day, but we do these things, obviously, in isolation. We knew that would cause us at the top of the house to miss expectations. But we still took them at the end of the day because that's what the scenarios advised us. But they are a conservative scenario where 80% of that reserve build is macroeconomic estimates of the future. And everyone can have a different view. But we took that. It's not like we spent that money that goes into an ACL. And if we're wrong, we'll release it. So we knew that conservatism may cause the types of questions you asked today. And the other fair questions you've asked is on our gross impaired loan build.

但最終，我們顯然是孤立地做這些事。我們知道這會讓我們無法達到最高層的期望。但我們最終還是接受了這些建議，因為這是場景建議我們做的。但這是一種保守的預測，其中 80% 的儲備是對未來的宏觀經濟估計。每個人都可以有不同的看法。但我們接受了。我們並沒有把這些錢花在 ACL 上。如果我們錯了，我們就會公佈。所以我們知道保守主義可能會導致您今天提出的問題。您提出的其他合理問題是關於我們的總減損貸款建構。

You heard Graeme say 40% of that build was administrative, right, and matured credits has had to get renewed. So you offset that and you got a 60% build. And we didn't even talk about how we're confident in our allowances for that GL build because of collateral in structure and the types of clients that we know we have. So we expected kind of your conversations to come back to that. But don't forget the very strong overall performance. We saw execution on HSBC. We saw execution on City National. All that led to very strong overall revenue and pre-tax profit, strong net income results. And I'll remind you again, we increased our dividend by $0.06, stronger confidence and we're continuing to do buybacks because we know where the intrinsic value of the firm is, and we'll continue to buy back shares even at these elevated evaluations. All that signifies notwithstanding, we took some prudent reserves that you're reacting to our confidence in the future.

您聽到格雷姆說，該建設的 40% 是行政性的，對吧，而且到期的信貸必須續期。因此，你抵消了這一點，你就得到了 60% 的構建。我們甚至沒有談論我們如何對 GL 構建的津貼充滿信心，因為我們知道我們擁有結構抵押品和客戶類型。因此，我們期望你們的談話能夠回到這個話題。但不要忘記其整體表現非常強勁。我們看到了匯豐銀行的執行情況。我們在 City National 看到了執行情況。所有這些都帶來了非常強勁的總收入和稅前利潤以及強勁的淨收入結果。我再次提醒您，我們將股息提高了 0.06 美元，增強了信心，我們將繼續回購股票，因為我們知道公司的內在價值在哪裡，即使在這些高估值下，我們仍將繼續回購股票。儘管如此，我們還是採取了一些謹慎的措施，以表明您對我們對未來的信心做出了反應。

So thanks very much for your questions, and we look forward to seeing you next quarter.

非常感謝您的提問，我們期待下個季度與您見面。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。