Royal Bank of Canada (RY) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

This conference is being recorded. (spoken in French)

此次會議正在錄製中。（法文）

All participants, please stand by. Your conference is ready to begin.

請各位與會者做好預備。您的會議已準備好開始。

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the RBC 2025 third-quarter results conference call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加 RBC 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Asim Imran, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Asim Imran。先生，請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

Speaking today will be Dave McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer; Katherine Gibson, Chief Financial Officer; and Graeme Hepworth, Chief Risk Officer. Also joining us today for your questions Erica Nielsen, Group Head, Personal Banking; Sean Amato-Gauci, Group Head, Commercial Banking; Neil McLaughlin, Group Head, Wealth Management; Derek Neldner, Group Head, Capital Markets; and Jennifer Publicover, Group Head, Insurance.

今天發言的有總裁兼執行長戴夫麥凱 (Dave McKay)、財務長凱瑟琳吉布森 (Katherine Gibson) 和首席風險長格雷姆赫普沃斯 (Graeme Hepworth)。今天與我們一起回答您問題的還有個人銀行業務集團主管 Erica Nielsen、商業銀行業務集團主管 Sean Amato-Gauci、財富管理業務集團主管 Neil McLaughlin、資本市場業務集團主管 Derek Neldner 和保險業務集團主管 Jennifer Publicover。

As noted on slide 2, our comments may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. To give everyone a chance to ask questions, we ask that you limit your questions and then re-queue.

如投影片 2 所述，我們的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及假設並具有固有的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我還要提醒聽眾，銀行根據報告和調整後的基礎來評估其業績，並認為兩者對於評估基礎業務業績都很有用。為了讓每個人都有機會提問，我們要求您限制您的問題，然後重新排隊。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給戴夫。

Thank you, Asim.

謝謝你，阿西姆。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we reported record third-quarter earnings of $5.4 billion, up 21% or over $900 million from last year. These results or these outstanding results underpinned a strong return on equity of over 17% for the quarter or over 16% year to date, supported by a robust capital ratio of 13.2%.

大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天，我們報告第三季獲利達到創紀錄的 54 億美元，比去年同期成長 21%，超過 9 億美元。這些業績或這些出色的業績支撐了本季度超過 17% 或年初至今超過 16% 的強勁股本回報率，並得到了 13.2% 的強勁資本比率的支持。

We are gaining momentum towards meeting our medium-term Investor Day targets and are confident in continuing to achieve an ROE of at least 16% in fiscal 2026 and beyond.

我們正朝著實現中期投資者日目標的方向努力，並有信心在 2026 財年及以後繼續實現至少 16% 的 ROE。

This quarter's strong earnings added 77 basis points of gross capital generation, truly showcasing the underlying earnings power of the bank including realizing our targeted annualized cost synergies related to the acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada.

本季強勁的獲利使總資本產生量增加了 77 個基點，真正展示了銀行的潛在獲利能力，包括實現與收購加拿大匯豐銀行相關的目標年度成本協同效應。

Our diversified business model is built to drive strong risk-adjusted returns which in turn supports both our clients and the return of capital to shareholders, including increased share buybacks this quarter. Strong client-driven risk-weighted asset growth supported revenue of $17 billion this quarter including record revenue in Capital Markets and double-digit growth in Personal Banking and Wealth Management.

我們多元化的商業模式旨在推動強勁的風險調整回報，從而支持我們的客戶和股東的資本回報，包括本季增加的股票回購。強勁的客戶驅動風險加權資產成長支撐了本季 170 億美元的收入，其中包括資本市場的創紀錄收入以及個人銀行和財富管理的兩位數成長。

We achieved our results in an environment of record equity markets and cyclically low investment-grade credit spreads while seeing an increased flow of client deposits and market-related client activity. However, the constructive environment for market-related revenue continues to be tempered by geopolitical risks and the uncertainty around trade policy particularly China's levy against Canada's canola exports and the potential review or re-negotiation of CUSMA.

我們在股票市場創紀錄、投資等級信用利差週期性走低的環境下取得了業績，同時客戶存款流量和市場相關客戶活動有所增加。然而，市場相關收入的積極環境繼續受到地緣政治風險和貿易政策不確定性的影響，尤其是中國對加拿大油菜籽出口徵收的稅款以及對加拿大美國減讓法 (CUSMA) 的潛在審查或重新談判。

We continue to monitor the negotiations, and we encourage policymakers on all sides to build on the foundational strengths of current trade agreements, which have provided significant benefits to all parties. Should current CUSMA compliant goods largely maintain their qualified exemption to tariffs, Canada's effective tariff rate should remain low and the economy should remain resilient.

我們將繼續關注談判進展，並鼓勵各方政策制定者在現有貿易協定的基礎上繼續努力，這些協定已為各方帶來了重大利益。如果目前符合 CUSMA 的商品大部分能夠維持其關稅豁免資格，加拿大的有效關稅稅率應該會保持在低位，經濟也應該保持彈性。

However, as trade tensions extend, there may be persistent impacts, including declining consumer confidence, lower corporate profit margins, rising inflation and softening labor markets across both the US and Canada with uncertain implications to monetary policy and capital flows. Amidst this shifting landscape, we are operating from a position of strength. Our robust capital levels are reinforced by a strong allowance for credit loss of 74 basis points of loans, including elevated weightings to our downside scenarios.

然而，隨著貿易緊張局勢的延續，可能會產生持續影響，包括美國和加拿大消費者信心下降、企業利潤率下降、通貨膨脹上升和勞動力市場疲軟，對貨幣政策和資本流動產生不確定的影響。在這種不斷變化的情況下，我們正憑藉實力開展業務。我們穩健的資本水準得益於高達 74 個基點的貸款信用損失準備金，其中包括對下行情境的較高權重。

We believe our well underwritten portfolio is prudently provisioned. The diversification of assets and revenue streams across client sectors, geographies, products and businesses, further mitigates the impact of heightened uncertainty and volatility.

我們相信，我們承保良好的投資組合是經過審慎準備的。跨客戶部門、地理、產品和業務的資產和收入流的多樣化進一步減輕了不確定性和波動性加劇的影響。

As the country's largest financial institution by market capitalization, we have an important role to play in helping support our clients build and even better Canada while executing against the strategic priorities we highlighted at our Investor Day both within and outside of Canada. We are accelerating our investments in strategic initiatives by seeding growth across our segments and geographies, including new product and cross-border capabilities.

作為加拿大市值最大的金融機構，我們在幫助支持客戶建立和改善加拿大方面發揮著重要作用，同時在加拿大國內外執行我們在投資者日上強調的戰略重點。我們正在加速對策略性舉措的投資，推動各部門和地區的成長，包括新產品和跨境能力。

We're also improving and expanding our talent pool by hiring senior coverage and relationship talent and capital markets and client-facing account managers in commercial banking. In addition, we continue to attract experienced financial advisers in wealth management, especially in the United States, where we expect higher recurring revenue from this recruitment.

我們還透過聘請商業銀行的高級覆蓋和關係人才以及資本市場和麵向客戶的帳戶經理來改善和擴大我們的人才庫。此外，我們繼續吸引財富管理領域經驗豐富的財務顧問，特別是在美國，我們預計此次招聘將帶來更高的經常性收入。

Our ongoing investments in technology build upon our leading competitive advantage in artificial intelligence, including in our proprietary ATOM Foundation model and Lumina data platform. These investments underpin the enterprise value we expect to generate from AI over the medium term. Furthermore, our expansion into transaction banking continues to be on track, with RBC Clear receiving two awards at the recent Digital Bankers Global Transaction Banking Innovation Awards.

我們對科技的持續投資建立在我們在人工智慧領域的領先競爭優勢之上，包括我們專有的 ATOM Foundation 模型和 Lumina 資料平台。這些投資支撐了我們預計在中期內從人工智慧產生的企業價值。此外，我們在交易銀行業務領域的擴張繼續順利進行，RBC Clear 在最近的數位銀行家全球交易銀行創新獎中獲得了兩項獎項。

With this context, I will now speak to key trends we are seeing across our businesses, starting with Personal Banking. In our Canadian business, average deposits were up 2% from last year, including 7% growth in banking and savings accounts. We continue to focus on client acquisition while also capturing the shifting money in motion given the evolving interest rate and market outlook. These core deposits provide a structural funding cost advantage.

在此背景下，我現在將談談我們在整個業務中看到的關鍵趨勢，首先是個人銀行業務。在我們的加拿大業務中，平均存款比去年增長了 2%，其中銀行和儲蓄帳戶增長了 7%。我們將繼續專注於客戶獲取，同時也根據不斷變化的利率和市場前景捕捉資金流動情況。這些核心存款提供了結構性融資成本優勢。

Average residential mortgages were up 3% year over year as we added $4 billion of average balances this quarter. While we have maintained discipline on both credit quality and pricing, we are benefiting from higher switch in volumes and an increase in mortgage retention rates.

本季度，我們增加了 40 億美元的平均餘額，平均住宅抵押貸款年增 3%。雖然我們在信貸品質和定價方面都保持了紀律，但我們也受益於更高的轉換量和抵押貸款保留率的提高。

While we see a pick-up in housing starts, and signs of price stabilization and buyer confidence returning as affordability improves, we continue to expect Canadian housing resale activity to be dampened by underperformance in Ontario, particularly in the Greater Toronto area. In contrast, credit card growth was solid at 7% this quarter, driven by account acquisition, higher revolve rates and increased client engagement.

雖然我們看到房屋開工數量回升，隨著負擔能力的提高，價格出現穩定跡象，買家信心也有所回升，但我們仍然預計加拿大房屋轉售活動將受到安大略省（尤其是大多倫多地區）表現不佳的抑制。相較之下，本季信用卡成長穩健，達到 7%，這得益於帳戶獲取、更高的循環利率和客戶參與度的提高。

Our proprietary RBC Consumer Spending Tracker highlights that Canadian cardholder spending remained resilient particularly in the retail and everyday categories. This quarter, we expanded our partnership with the Pattison Food Group into Western Canada and launched the WestJet RBC World Elite MasterCard credit card for business clients.

我們專有的 RBC 消費者支出追蹤器顯示，加拿大持卡人支出仍保持強勁，特別是在零售和日常類別。本季度，我們將與 Pattison Food Group 的合作擴展到加拿大西部，並針對商業客戶推出了 WestJet RBC World Elite MasterCard 信用卡。

Turning to Commercial Banking. Average loan growth moderated to 6% year over year within the updated guidance we provided last quarter. Growth has been slower in more tariff sensitive sectors, including manufacturing, transportation and logistics, along with cyclical headwinds in commercial real estate. While our pipelines are building in a competitive market, clients continue to hold back their capital and inventory spend. We are well positioned to support our clients when they are ready.

轉向商業銀行業務。根據我們上個季度提供的最新指導，平均貸款成長率年減至 6%。製造業、運輸業和物流業等對關稅較為敏感的產業的成長速度有所放緩，同時商業房地產也面臨週期性逆風。儘管我們的管道正在競爭激烈的市場中建設，但客戶仍在繼續抑制其資本和庫存支出。當客戶做好準備時，我們已準備好為他們提供支援。

Moving to Wealth Management, we reported double-digit growth in assets under administration in both Canadian and US Wealth Management to $935 billion and US$718 billion, respectively. Our global wealth management franchises benefited from market appreciation while continuing to drive net new client assets along with increased volumes in our US lending solutions. We also launched RBC Premium Savings in the US this year, a new non-sweep high-yield deposit product, which is seeing positive traction.

在財富管理方面，我們報告加拿大和美國財富管理的管理資產均實現了兩位數成長，分別達到 9,350 億美元和 7,180 億美元。我們的全球財富管理特許經營權受益於市場升值，同時繼續推動淨新客戶資產的成長以及美國貸款解決方案數量的增加。我們今年也在美國推出了 RBC Premium Savings，這是一款新的非清算高收益存款產品，並且獲得了積極的發展。

Direct Investing trading volumes were supported by strong market activity. Assets under management in RBC Global Asset Management increased by 12% to a record $741 billion, reflecting net sales into both long-term institutional and retail mandates. Like our wealth management businesses, we are seeing momentum in Canadian retail mutual fund net sales as our clients move back into markets across our broad set of strategies across fixed income, balanced and equity mandates.

直接投資交易量受到強勁市場活動的支持。加拿大皇家銀行全球資產管理公司的管理資產成長了 12%，達到創紀錄的 7,410 億美元，反映了長期機構和零售委託的淨銷售額。與我們的財富管理業務一樣，隨著我們的客戶透過我們涵蓋固定收益、平衡和股票授權的廣泛策略重返市場，我們看到加拿大零售共同基金淨銷售額的成長勢頭。

Now to Capital Markets, which reported record revenue of $3.8 billion, pre-provision pre-tax earnings of $1.7 billion and net income of $1.3 billion this quarter. On a year-to-date basis, Capital Markets generated close to $11 billion in revenue and approximately $4 billion in net income. These are truly exceptional results across our diversified franchise. Global Markets reported revenue of over $1.9 billion with strong results in our FICC businesses, reflecting strength in spread and rates products, which are areas of traditional strength.

現在來看看資本市場，該部門本季營收達到創紀錄的 38 億美元，撥備前稅前利潤為 17 億美元，淨利為 13 億美元。今年迄今為止，資本市場創造了近 110 億美元的收入和約 40 億美元的淨收入。這是我們多元化特許經營中真正卓越的成果。全球市場報告收入超過 19 億美元，其中 FICC 業務表現強勁，反映出利差和利率產品等傳統優勢領域的強勁表現。

We also reported a strong performance in both cash equities and equity derivatives as we supported heightened client activity, benefiting from increasing investments in the franchise. Corporate and Investment Banking generated revenue of over $1.7 billion, benefiting from an increased number of larger M&A advisory mandates along with higher lending revenue in the US and Europe, reflecting the strength of our global franchise.

我們也報告了現金股票和股票衍生性商品的強勁表現，因為我們支持了客戶活動的增加，並受益於特許經營權投資的增加。企業和投資銀行業務創造了超過 17 億美元的收入，受益於更大的併購諮詢委託數量的增加以及美國和歐洲貸款收入的增加，反映了我們全球特許經營的實力。

Looking forward, we continue to maintain a high level of engagement with our clients in what we deem a constructive environment for capital markets. While the second half of the year is seasonally lower or slower than the first, we are encouraged by the increased optimism and confidence amongst our corporate and sponsor clients, and we expect higher levels of transactions and deal closures over the next 12 months. We also expect our global markets franchise to remain resilient as we deepen our expertise across products.

展望未來，我們將繼續與客戶保持高度的互動，我們認為這有利於資本市場的建設性環境。雖然下半年的季節性因素導致交易量低於或低於上半年，但我們的企業和贊助商客戶日益增強的樂觀情緒和信心令我們感到鼓舞，我們預計未來 12 個月的交易量和交易完成率將會更高。我們也預計，隨著我們深化產品專業知識，我們的全球市場特許經營權將保持彈性。

Finally, I will comment on our broader US region, which reported US$635 million of net income this quarter. City National Bank reported earnings of US$114 million or adjusted earnings of US$139 million. The geographic efficiency ratio improved 6.6 percentage points year over year to 81.5%. While there's still work to be done, we are seeing early signs of success as we continue to build a more cohesive US operating model.

最後，我將對我們更廣泛的美國地區進行評論，該地區本季的淨收入為 6.35 億美元。城市國家銀行報告的收益為 1.14 億美元，調整後的收益為 1.39 億美元。地理效率比年增6.6個百分點，達81.5%。雖然仍有工作要做，但隨著我們繼續建立更具凝聚力的美國營運模式，我們已經看到了成功的早期跡象。

To close, despite the uncertain environment, we are confident in our ability to generate a strong return on equity while continuing to deepen client relationships, grow market share, drive operating leverage and return capital to shareholders. The strategic vision we articulated at our Investor Day remains clear, and we are already seeing the outcomes unfolding.

最後，儘管環境不確定，但我們有信心能夠創造強勁的股本回報率，同時繼續深化客戶關係、擴大市場份額、提高經營槓桿並向股東返還資本。我們在投資者日闡明的策略願景仍然清晰，而且我們已經看到了成果的展現。

We strive to further extend our leadership across Canada, while scaling growth and unlocking new revenue streams in key markets and geographies, including the United States. Finally, in the spirit of continued transparency and accountability, we will look to provide an update on how we are performing against our Investor Day financial targets when we report our fourth quarter results later this year.

我們致力於進一步擴大我們在加拿大的領導地位，同時擴大成長並在包括美國在內的主要市場和地區開闢新的收入來源。最後，本著持續透明和負責的精神，我們將在今年稍後報告第四季度業績時，提供有關投資者日財務目標執行情況的最新資訊。

And with that, Katherine, over to you.

凱瑟琳，現在輪到你了。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家早安。

Starting with slide 8, This quarter, we reported [diluted] (added by company after the call) Earnings Per Share of $3.75. Adjusted diluted Earnings Per Share of $3.84 was up 18% from last year, driven by strong revenue momentum across our businesses and solid operating leverage, including the realization of the $740 million in annualized cost synergies from the acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada..

從第8張投影片開始，本季度，我們報告的[稀釋]（公司在電話會議後添加）每股收益為3.75美元。調整後稀釋每股盈餘為3.84美元，較去年同期成長18%，這得益於我們各項業務強勁的營收成長動能和穩健的營運槓桿，包括收購匯豐銀行加拿大分行帶來的7.4億美元年化成本綜效。

Turning to capital on slide 9, we continued to demonstrate strong capital generation. Our CET1 ratio came in at 13.2%, in line with last quarter. Strong internal capital generation net of dividends was partly offset by the impact of an increase in risk-weighted assets in our US agency and sovereign exposures, driven by a downgrade of US sovereign debt ratings.

談到投影片 9 上的資本，我們繼續展現強大的資本創造能力。我們的 CET1 比率為 13.2%，與上一季持平。由於美國主權債務評級下調，我們美國機構和主權敞口中風險加權資產增加的影響，部分抵消了扣除股息後的強勁內部資本生成。

Furthermore, changes to our credit risk parameters, which I called out last quarter, also had a modest negative impact to capital. We continued to deploy capital to drive organic growth. particularly in corporate lending and residential mortgages as well as increased loan underwriting commitments in capital markets. Returning capital to our shareholders through share buybacks and dividends remains a key part of our deployment strategy. This quarter, we repurchased 5.4 million shares for $955 million, in line with the level purchased in aggregate over the last three quarters. Our total payout ratio was 56% year-to-date. We will continue to be tactical with the level of share repurchases based on prevailing market conditions.

此外，我在上個季度提到的信用風險參數的變化也對資本產生了適度的負面影響。我們繼續部署資本來推動有機成長，特別是在企業貸款和住宅抵押貸款以及增加資本市場的貸款承銷承諾方面。透過股票回購和股利向股東返還資本仍然是我們部署策略的關鍵部分。本季度，我們以 9.55 億美元回購了 540 萬股，與過去三個季度的總購買量持平。今年迄今為止，我們的總派息率為 56%。我們將繼續根據當前市場狀況，採取策略性股票回購水準。

Moving to slide 10, all bank net interest income was up 14% year-over-year or up 12%, excluding trading revenue. All bank net interest margin, excluding trading revenue, was down 5 basis points from last quarter, mainly due to lower interest income on certain transactions in capital markets, which was offset in other non-interest income. We believe net interest margin is more of a relevant factor for our retail and commercial banking segments.

轉到第 10 張投影片，所有銀行淨利息收入年增 14%，不包括交易收入則成長 12%。不包括交易收入在內的所有銀行淨利差較上一季下降 5 個基點，主要原因是資本市場某些交易的利息收入減少，但被其他非利息收入所抵銷。我們認為，淨利差對於我們的零售和商業銀行部門來說是一個更重要的因素。

Canadian Banking NIM was up 2 basis points from last quarter, benefiting from a favorable product mix including a shift towards demand deposits in personal banking, which were up 1.5% from last quarter, offsetting a 1% sequential decline in GICs. We continue to benefit from tailwinds related to our structural hedging tractor strategy as five-year swap rates remain elevated relative to historical levels. The combination of the above two factors more than offset competitive pricing pressures in residential mortgages.

加拿大銀行淨利息收益率 (NIM) 較上一季度上升 2 個基點，受益於有利的產品組合，包括個人銀行業務轉向活期存款，較上一季度增長 1.5%，抵消了 GIC 連續 1% 的下降。由於五年期掉期利率相對於歷史水準仍處於高位，我們繼續受益於與結構性對沖拖拉機策略相關的順風。上述兩個因素的結合足以抵銷住宅抵押貸款的競爭定價壓力。

As a reminder, benefits to net interest income from the purchase price accounting accretion and from the HSBC Canada acquisition of $118 million this quarter are expected to be largely run off by Q2 2026. Looking forward, we now expect our 2025 all bank net interest income growth to be in the mid-teens range, including benefits from a more favorable deposit mix.

提醒一下，本季收購價格會計增值和匯豐加拿大 1.18 億美元收購帶來的淨利息收入收益預計將在 2026 年第二季基本消失。展望未來，我們目前預計 2025 年全銀行淨利息收入成長率將達到 15% 左右，其中包括更有利的存款組合帶來的好處。

Before moving on to expenses, one item I'd like to point out is that the increase in other non-interest income includes impacts from hedges of our US share-based compensation plan. which is largely offset in non-interest expense as well as in net interest income, as I noted above, in my discussion on all bank NIM.

在討論費用之前，我想指出的一點是，其他非利息收入的增加包括我們美國股票薪酬計畫對沖的影響。正如我在上面討論所有銀行淨利息收益率時提到的那樣，這在很大程度上被非利息支出和淨利息收入所抵消。

Moving to slide 11, reported non-interest expense was up 7%, and core non-interest expense was up 8% from last year. Core expense growth this quarter reflects higher staff-related costs, largely driven by variable compensation, commensurate with strong revenue growth in both wealth management and capital markets. As well as increased salaries and pensions and benefits. Higher expenses also reflect investments in technology and operations as well as hiring in priority growth areas. Concurrently, we will continue operating within a disciplined expense management framework to prudently manage our cost base.

轉到第 11 張投影片，報告的非利息支出比去年上漲了 7%，核心非利息支出上漲了 8%。本季核心支出的成長反映了員工相關成本的增加，這主要受到浮動薪資的推動，與財富管理和資本市場的強勁收入成長相稱。以及增加工資、退休金和福利。更高的支出也反映了對技術和營運的投資以及在優先成長領域的招募。同時，我們將繼續在嚴格的費用管理框架內運作，並審慎管理我們的成本基礎。

Going forward, we expect all-bank core expense growth which is based on reported 2024 expenses to now be in the mid- to high single-digit range, largely reflecting higher variable compensation. That said, we expect strong all bank operating leverage for the year, which is a key management priority.

展望未來，我們預計基於報告的 2024 年支出的全銀行核心支出成長將處於中高個位數範圍，這主要反映了更高的浮動薪酬。話雖如此，我們預計今年所有銀行的經營槓桿都將保持強勁，這是管理的首要任務。

On taxes, the adjusted non-TEB effective tax rate was 21.2% this quarter, relatively in line with the first half of 2025. Looking forward, we continue to expect the adjusted non-TEB effective tax rate to be in the 20% to 22% range.

稅務方面，本季調整後的非TEB有效稅率為21.2%，與2025年上半年基本持平。展望未來，我們繼續預期調整後的非 TEB 有效稅率將在 20% 至 22% 的範圍內。

Turning to our Q3 segment results beginning on slide 12, Personal Banking reported results of over $1.9 billion. Focusing on Personal Banking in Canada, net income was up 23% from last year as a strong operating leverage of 12.5% was partly offset by higher provisions for credit losses. Personal banking efficiency ratio improved to 38.7% this quarter, underpinned by strong revenue and relatively flat expense growth, partly reflecting the benefits from realized cost synergies related to the acquisition of HSBC Canada. Higher revenues this quarter benefited from a 14% increase in net interest income and a 10% increase in non-interest income largely driven by higher mutual fund revenue.

從第 12 張投影片開始看我們的第三季分部業績，個人銀行業務報告的業績超過 19 億美元。專注於加拿大個人銀行業務，淨收入較去年同期成長 23%，因為 12.5% 的強勁營運槓桿被更高的信貸損失準備金部分抵銷。本季個人銀行效率比率提高至 38.7%，這得益於強勁的收入和相對平穩的支出成長，部分反映了收購匯豐加拿大帶來的成本綜效。本季收入增加得益於淨利息收入增加 14% 和非利息收入增加 10%，主要得益於共同基金收入增加。

Turning to slide 13, commercial Banking net income of $836 million rose 2% from a year ago. Pre-provision pre-tax earnings were up 8% from last year, driven by a strong operating leverage of 4.8%, reflecting solid average volume growth and well-managed expenses including the benefits of realized cost synergies related to the acquisition of HSBC Canada. This was offset partly by lower credit fees, reflecting the cessation of BA-based lending, which was offset in net interest income.

翻到第 13 張投影片，商業銀行淨收入 8.36 億美元，比去年同期成長 2%。撥備前稅前收益較去年同期成長 8%，這得益於 4.8% 的強勁經營槓桿，反映了穩健的平均銷售成長和良好的費用管理，包括收購匯豐加拿大帶來的成本協同效應。這在一定程度上被較低的信貸費用所抵消，反映了基於​​ BA 的貸款的停止，這被淨利息收入所抵消。

Turning to Wealth Management on slide 14, net income of approximately $1.1 billion rose 15% from a year ago. Non-interest income was up 13% from last year, reflecting strong growth in fee-based client assets across our wealth and asset management businesses, benefiting from market appreciation and net new assets. Net interest income was up 6% from last year, including higher results in Canadian Wealth Management, reflecting average volume growth in deposits and higher spreads. This was partly offset by headwinds in US Wealth Management.

轉到第 14 張投影片上的財富管理，淨收入約為 11 億美元，比一年前成長了 15%。非利息收入較去年同期成長 13%，反映出我們的財富和資產管理業務中收費客戶資產的強勁成長，受益於市場升值和淨新增資產。淨利息收入較去年同期成長 6%，其中包括加拿大財富管理績效的成長，反映了存款平均量的成長和利差的上升。這在某種程度上被美國財富管理領域的逆風所抵銷。

Higher revenue this quarter was partly offset by higher variable compensation commensurate with increased compensable revenue and investments, including technology and the recruitment of financial advisors. City National generated US$139 million in adjusted earnings, up 81% from last year and 58% from last quarter. Last year's results included an impairment loss on our interest in an associated company and the sale of a non-core investment.

本季度收入的增加被與可補償收入和投資增加（包括技術和招聘財務顧問）相對應的浮動薪酬的增加部分抵消。City National 的調整後收益為 1.39 億美元，比去年同期成長 81%，比上一季成長 58%。去年的業績包括我們在一家聯營公司的權益減損損失以及非核心投資的出售。

Turning to our Capital Markets results on slide 15, net income of $1.3 billion increased 13% from last year, reflecting record revenues of $3.8 billion. On a pre-provision pre-tax basis, results were up 36% year-over-year to $1.7 billion. Global Markets revenue was up 37% year over year, reflecting higher fixed income trading benefiting in part due to narrowing spreads. Results also benefited from our robust equity and FX trading performance.

我們來看第 15 張投影片上的資本市場業績，淨收入 13 億美元，較去年成長 13%，創下 38 億美元的紀錄。以撥備前稅前計算，業績年增 36%，達到 17 億美元。全球市場營收年增 37%，反映固定收益交易的成長部分得益於利差縮小。業績也受益於我們強勁的股票和外匯交易表現。

Corporate and Investment Banking revenue was up 11% from last year. Investment Banking revenue was up 11% from last year, reflecting higher debt and equity origination and M&A activity across most regions. Lending and transaction banking revenue was also up 11%. And reflecting higher lending revenue in the US and Europe.

企業和投資銀行業務收入比去年增長了 11%。投資銀行收入較去年同期成長 11%，反映出大多數地區的債務和股權發起以及併購活動增加。貸款和交易銀行業務收入也成長了 11%。並反映出美國和歐洲的貸款收入增加。

This was partly offset by lower municipal banking activity compared to a strong Q3 last year. Higher revenue was partly offset by higher variable compensation. Investments in technology also contributed to higher expenses.

與去年第三季的強勁表現相比，市政銀行業務活動減少在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。收入增加部分被浮動薪酬增加所抵銷。技術投資也導致了支出的增加。

Turning to slide 16, Insurance net income of $247 million was up 45% from last year, driven by higher insurance service results from improved life insurance claims experience and higher insurance investment results, reflecting lower capital funding costs. Looking ahead, we expect Q4 results to be negatively impacted primarily as a result of our annual actuarial assumption updates.

轉到投影片 16，保險淨收入 2.47 億美元，比去年增長 45％，這得益於人壽保險索賠經驗改善帶來的保險服務業績增長以及保險投資業績增長，反映出資本融資成本降低。展望未來，我們預期第四季業績將受到負面影響，主要原因是我們的年度精算假設更新。

Lastly, results for corporate support in the quarter benefited from the elevated net impact of favorable markets in our US share-based compensation plan. As we look forward to the fourth quarter, we expect corporate support to generate a net loss at the lower end of our $100 million to $150 million range.

最後，本季企業支持績效受惠於美國股票薪酬計畫中有利市場的淨影響提升。展望第四季度，我們預期企業支持將產生 1 億至 1.5 億美元範圍內的淨虧損。

To conclude, despite the market and macroeconomic uncertainty, we generated record results this quarter, underpinning an ROE of 17.3%, with a CET1 ratio of 13.2%. Our Q3 performance showcases the strength of our diversified business model and its ability to drive premium returns as highlighted at our Investor Day. And positions us well in the quarters ahead as we execute on those strategies.

總而言之，儘管市場和宏觀經濟存在不確定性，我們本季仍取得了創紀錄的業績，ROE 達到 17.3%，CET1 比率達到 13.2%。正如我們在投資者日所強調的那樣，我們的第三季業績展示了我們多元化業務模式的實力及其推動優質回報的能力。當我們執行這些策略時，這將使我們在未來幾季處於有利地位。

With that, I'll turn it over to Graeme.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給格雷姆。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Katherine, and good morning, everyone. I'll now discuss our allowances in the context of the current macroeconomic environment and the ongoing trade uncertainty. Overall, the Canadian economy has shown greater resilience than initially expected, and both business and consumer confidence have rebounded from earlier lows. We began the quarter with signs of reduced trade tensions, but this was followed by renewed tariff threats and the escalation of sector and country-specific tariffs.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳，大家早安。現在，我將在當前宏觀經濟環境和持續的貿易不確定性背景下討論我們的配額。總體而言，加拿大經濟表現出比最初預期更強的韌性，企業和消費者信心都已從早先的低點反彈。本季初，貿易緊張局勢有所緩和，但隨後又出現關稅威脅，產業和國家特定關稅也隨之升級。

As the heightened uncertainty around trade policy stretches over an extended timeframe, this also increases the risk of shrinking appetite for business investment in Canada. Against this backdrop, recall that last quarter, we increased our reserves to reflect the heightened uncertainty. We had implemented a new trade-related scenario, reflecting the potential for a severe North American recession driven by an escalating global trade war and rising geopolitical risks. Given the ongoing uncertainty this quarter, we have maintained our prudent posture and retained the elevated weighting to our downside scenarios in line with last quarter.

由於貿易政策的不確定性不斷增加，持續時間較長，也增加了加拿大商業投資興趣萎縮的風險。在此背景下，回想一下上個季度，我們增加了儲備以反映日益加劇的不確定性。我們實施了新的貿易相關情景，反映了全球貿易戰升級和地緣政治風險上升可能導致北美經濟嚴重衰退。鑑於本季度持續存在的不確定性，我們保持了審慎的態度，並保持了與上一季一致的下行情景的較高權重。

Turning to slide 18, we released a total of $28 million or 1 basis point of provisions on performing loans this quarter, mainly reflecting favorable changes to our macroeconomic forecast, partially offset by portfolio growth and unfavorable changes in portfolio composition. We saw quarter-over-quarter improvements to our base case unemployment and GDP forecast with rising Canadian fiscal stimulus contributing to the lifting of our outlook.

轉到第 18 張投影片，本季我們共計釋放了 2,800 萬美元或 1 個基點的正常貸款撥備，主要反映了我們宏觀經濟預測的有利變化，但被投資組合成長和投資組合構成的不利變化部分抵消。我們看到，基本失業率和 GDP 預測逐季改善，加拿大財政刺激措施的增加有助於提升我們的前景。

This translated to a minor release of allowances on our performing loans in wealth management and capital markets, offset by a small increase in provisions in Personal Banking. City National drove the bulk of the release of allowances due to favorable credit quality and improvements in the US macroeconomic forecast.

這意味著我們在財富管理和資本市場中良好貸款的撥備將小幅釋放，但個人銀行業務撥備的少量增加將抵消這一損失。由於信貸品質良好以及美國宏觀經濟預測改善，City National 推動了大部分配額的發放。

Retail clients have shown resilience amidst this uncertain economic environment and have largely managed through the impact of increasing mortgage payments. And overall, we are well reserved after building up allowances over the past three years. We will continue to prudently manage our allowances given the backdrop of ongoing uncertainty.

零售客戶在這種不確定的經濟環境中表現出了韌性，並在很大程度上克服了抵押貸款支付增加的影響。總體而言，經過過去三年的積累，我們的儲備已經很充足。鑑於持續存在的不確定性，我們將繼續審慎管理我們的配額。

Moving to slide 19, gross impaired loans of $8.8 billion were down $0.2 billion or 3 basis points from last quarter, primarily driven by our wholesale portfolios, which saw lower new formations. The decrease in GIL reflects several accounts moving back to performing status and the resolution of the administrative issues outlined in the prior quarter. While GIL remained elevated, we are seeing a moderation in the pace of exposures moving onto our watch list and our wholesale portfolios are showing more balance with moderating formations in capital markets, positive trends in City National and a soft Canadian economy contributing to elevated impairments in the commercial portfolio.

轉到投影片 19，88 億美元的總不良貸款比上一季下降了 2 億美元或 3 個基點，這主要是由於我們的批發投資組合的新成立數量減少。GIL 的減少反映了一些帳戶恢復到正常狀態以及上一季概述的管理問題的解決。雖然 GIL 仍然處於高位，但我們看到進入我們關註名單的風險敞口速度有所放緩，我們的批發投資組合表現出更多的平衡，資本市場的走勢趨於緩和，City National 的趨勢積極，加拿大經濟疲軟導致商業投資組合的減值增加。

In Capital Markets, new formations decreased $453 million quarter-over-quarter. Impairments this quarter were mainly driven by two accounts, one in each of the financing products and telecom and media sectors. We also saw a couple of clients in the real estate and related and industrial product sectors return to performing status, resulting in a net reduction to GIL.

在資本市場，新成立公司數量較上季減少 4.53 億美元。本季的減損主要由兩個帳戶造成，分別來自融資產品和電信及媒體產業。我們也看到房地產及相關和工業產品領域的一些客戶恢復了業績，導致 GIL 淨減少。

In Commercial Banking, new formations decreased $399 million quarter over quarter. The largest new formations in the quarter related to borrowers in the real estate-related and agriculture sectors. While new formations in the wholesale portfolio are playing out as anticipated, they are expected to remain at elevated levels through the first half of 2026.

商業銀行業務方面，新設立銀行數量較上季減少 3.99 億美元。本季最大的新成立機構是房地產和農業領域的借款人。雖然批發投資組合中的新組成正在按照預期發揮作用，但預計到 2026 年上半年仍將保持在較高水準。

We expect to see more moderate outcomes as we work through the watchlist and special loan pipelines and as the economy gains momentum through 2026. As a reminder, impairments and recognized losses in our wholesale portfolios are inherently more difficult to predict quarter-over-quarter and can be volatile.

隨著我們逐步完善觀察名單和特殊貸款管道，以及隨著經濟在 2026 年獲得發展動力，我們預計會看到更溫和的結果。提醒一下，我們的批發投資組合中的減損和已確認損失本質上更難以逐季預測，並且可能會產生波動。

Turning to slide 20, PCL on impaired loans of 36 basis points was up 1 basis point or $61 million quarter-over-quarter, in line with our expectations. In Capital Markets, provisions were up $83 million, driven by additional provisions taken on a previously impaired account in the other services sector, which is undergoing a challenging and complex workout process. There is also a new impairment in the financing product sector. In our commercial banking portfolio, provisions of $296 million were up $10 million, led by provisions in the real estate related, consumer discretion and transportation sectors.

轉到幻燈片 20，36 個基點的不良貸款的 PCL 比上一季增加 1 個基點或 6100 萬美元，符合我們的預期。在資本市場，撥備增加了 8,300 萬美元，因為對其他服務業先前受損的帳戶提取了額外撥備，該行業正在經歷一個充滿挑戰和複雜的重組過程。融資產品領域也出現了新的減損。在我們的商業銀行投資組合中，撥備金額為 2.96 億美元，增加了 1,000 萬美元，主要來自房地產相關、非必需消費品和運輸業的撥備。

Overall, the commercial portfolio continues to be impacted by softer economic conditions and consumer spending in Canada. Elevated impaired provisions over the last 12 months primarily reflect exposure in cyclical supply chain-related sectors like automotive, transportation and industrial products, as well as consumer discretionary and real estate-related sectors, which have all been impacted by the higher rate environment and post-pandemic trends. We continue to expect commercial PCLs to remain elevated in the coming quarters, reflecting the weaker Canadian economic backdrop and ongoing trade uncertainty.

總體而言，商業投資組合持續受到加拿大經濟狀況疲軟和消費者支出的影響。過去 12 個月減損準備金的增加主要反映了汽車、運輸和工業產品等週期性供應鏈相關產業以及非必需消費品和房地產相關產業的風險敞口，這些產業都受到了較高利率環境和疫情後趨勢的影響。我們繼續預計未來幾季商業 PCL 將保持高位，這反映出加拿大經濟背景較弱以及持續的貿易不確定性。

In the retail portfolio, we saw higher losses this quarter in line with expectations, largely in the unsecured portfolios. While delinquencies across retail products remain elevated above historical levels, we are beginning to see stabilizing trends in early delinquencies.

在零售投資組合中，本季的損失符合預期，主要集中在無擔保投資組合中。儘管零售產品的拖欠率仍然高於歷史水平，但我們開始看到早期拖欠率呈現穩定趨勢。

To conclude, despite persistent uncertainty in the macroeconomic and policy environment, we remain confident in the overall quality, diversification and resilience of our portfolios. Our robust provisioning framework, prudent allowances and additional monitoring allow us to assess a wide range of potential outcomes and impacts to our portfolio.

總而言之，儘管宏觀經濟和政策環境持續存在不確定性，但我們仍然對投資組合的整體品質、多樣化和彈性充滿信心。我們強大的撥備框架、審慎的準備金和額外的監控使我們能夠評估對我們投資組合的廣泛潛在結果和影響。

We continue to expect PCL on impaired loans to remain elevated for the next few quarters, in a similar overall range to what we've experienced over the first three quarters of the year, potentially offset by releases in performing allowances as credit outcomes improve. The likelihood, timing and direction of allowances and PCL will continue to be dependent on the extent and duration of tariffs, potential fiscal support and stimulus measures, along with the performance of labor markets, interest rates and real estate prices. As always, we continue to proactively manage risk through the cycle, and we remain well capitalized to withstand a broad range of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes

我們繼續預計，未來幾季不良貸款的 PCL 將保持高位，總體範圍與今年前三個季度的水平相似，但隨著信貸結果的改善，履約準備金的釋放可能會抵消這一影響。配額和PCL的可能性、時間和方向將繼續取決於關稅的幅度和持續時間、潛在的財政支持和刺激措施，以及勞動力市場、利率和房地產價格的表現。像往常一樣，我們將繼續在整個週期中積極管理風險，並保持充足的資本，以抵禦各種宏觀經濟和地緣政治影響

And with that, operator, let's open the lines for Q&A.

接線員，現在讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess, maybe a question for you, Dave, there's a lot of conversation just investor focus around where some of these ROEs are heading? And when we look at Royal's performance today, if you look at the 17.7% ROE for this quarter, 16.5% year to date. And I think you said in your prepared remarks, at least 16%. I would love to hear that at least 16% in reality is more like at least 17%.

我想，戴夫，也許我要問你一個問題，投資者經常討論的是這些 ROE 的走向？當我們查看 Royal 今天的表現時，您會發現本季的 ROE 為 17.7%，年初至今的 ROE 為 16.5%。我認為您在準備好的發言中說過，至少是 16%。我很想聽到至少 16% 實際上更像是至少 17%。

And two questions there: one, do you think the bank is over earning anywhere within the P&L or do you think there is upside? And second, give us a sense of your appetite to build capital from here versus just keeping it at least relatively neutral from a CET1 perspective, which obviously is helpful to the ROE?

這裡有兩個問題：第一，您是否認為該銀行的損益表中存在超額盈利的情況，或者您認為存在上行空間？其次，請讓我們了解一下，您希望從現在開始累積資本，還是僅從 CET1 角度保持至少相對中性，這顯然對 ROE 有幫助？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, thanks for that myth full of questions. I'll try to work my way through them because they're all really important questions.

好吧，謝謝你這個充滿疑問的神話。我會盡力解決這些問題，因為它們都是非常重要的問題。

So maybe I'll start with the earnings strength because that kind of feeds into the narrative of our ROE expectations and the potential of the organization. And I'd say no, I think we captured a disproportionate share of client flow this quarter across all our businesses, whether it was in consumer banking, commercial banking, certainly, capital markets, our clients are active trading, wealth management, positive inflows. So you look at where we did exceptionally well was on the revenue line.

因此，也許我會從獲利實力開始，因為這與我們的 ROE 預期和組織潛力有關。我想說不，我認為本季我們在所有業務中佔據了不成比例的客戶流量份額，無論是在消費者銀行業務、商業銀行業務，當然還有資本市場，我們的客戶都在積極交易、財富管理，資金流入為正。所以你看我們在收入方面做得非常好。

Therefore, you look at the sustainable factors to that revenue line, while our deposit base is a huge strength, but it's well tracked or that's stable. So we're looking at client flows in our advisory businesses that are also stable as well. So we do have strong expectations, as I said in my speech, to continue to serve clients on the advisory side. remains to be seen where tariffs go as it affects confidence in the overall ability to invest in certain sectors.

因此，您要看收入線的可持續因素，雖然我們的存款基礎是一個巨大的優勢，但它得到了良好的追蹤或穩定。因此，我們諮詢業務的客戶流量也同樣穩定。因此，正如我在演講中所說的那樣，我們確實抱有強烈的期望，繼續為客戶提供諮詢服務。關稅走向還有待觀察，因為它會影響對某些產業整體投資能力的信心。

So some activity, I think, is still muted in the economy, particularly in commercial banking because the tariff uncertainty affects the ability to raise capital. So I would overall say our results are based on really strong client activity. and our ability to capture a disproportionate share of client activity, and we're seeing a very resilient economy, and therefore, we remain confident in our ability to continue to serve and use our scale to disproportionately drive the bottom line our investors.

因此，我認為，經濟中的一些活動仍然低迷，特別是商業銀行，因為關稅的不確定性影響了籌集資金的能力。所以總的來說，我們的業績是基於非常強勁的客戶活動，以及我們捕捉不成比例的客戶活動份額的能力，而且我們看到一個非常有彈性的經濟，因此，我們仍然有信心繼續為投資者提供服務，並利用我們的規模來不成比例地推動其盈利。

So with that, we're feeling very good about the sustainability of what we're doing. Notwithstanding some of the questions around insurance being a little volatile, and we expect to earn through some of those in other areas. So with that, then that led us to a very strong ROE this quarter of 17.7%.

因此，我們對所做工作的可持續性感到非常滿意。儘管圍繞保險的一些問題有些不穩定，但我們預計可以透過其他領域的一些問題獲利。因此，本季我們的 ROE 非常強勁，達到 17.7%。

As you mentioned, and we kind of reaffirmed our guidance around at least 16%-plus this year and into next year. I think the only thing that's holding us back from sitting down and kind of reaffirming and updating guidance is our uncertainty around the tariff scenario right now and the impact on investments, the impact on our clients.

正如您所說，我們重申了今年和明年至少成長 16% 以上的指導方針。我認為，唯一阻礙我們坐下來重申和更新指導的因素是我們對當前關稅情景的不確定性以及對投資和客戶的影響。

And therefore, we do want to kind of watch a little bit as we go through Q4 to see how negotiations kind of unfold, and we better understand the sectoral impacts and the overall impact to the Canadian economy and our ability to diversify. And as we do that, as Katherine mentioned, we're going to sit down and kind of review our overall expectations for 2026, and we'll communicate that to you at the next call in Q4.

因此，我們確實希望在第四季度進行一些觀察，看看談判如何展開，以便更好地了解行業影響以及對加拿大經濟和我們多元化能力的整體影響。正如凱瑟琳所提到的那樣，我們將坐下來回顧我們對 2026 年的總體預期，並將在第四季度的下一次電話會議上向您通報。

So give us a little bit of time to read the environment, but we feel very good about our results. We feel good about the client resilience. You heard Graeme talk about kind of credit kind of plateauing and that's the resilience of our customers again. And therefore, we feel really good going into Q4 and into 2026, and that reflects in the overall confidence around meeting our investor targets and accelerating towards those investor targets, as you pointed out. So I think, hopefully, that answers your question. As far as then the significant capital build of 77 basis points this quarter, and how do we deploy that.

所以給我們一點時間來了解環境，但我們對結果感到非常滿意。我們對客戶的恢復能力感到滿意。您聽到格雷姆談到信用的某種穩定狀態，而這又是我們客戶的韌性。因此，我們對進入第四季和 2026 年感到非常樂觀，正如您所指出的，這反映在我們對實現投資者目標和加速實現這些投資者目標的整體信心上。所以我希望這能回答你的問題。就本季 77 個基點的顯著資本累積而言，我們如何部署它。

I think because we're able to earn a 17.7% return on a 13.2% CET1 ratio, we have the ability to earn through that as some of the strongest banks in the world do like us. And therefore, I'm okay letting it creep up. We will continue to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks. We have that strong capital generation and dividend increases. And therefore, we will manage that overall scenario with the ability to continue to invest in organic growth over time and potentially inorganic growth if it makes sense for the shareholder and for the strategic franchise.

我認為，由於我們能夠以 13.2% 的 CET1 比率獲得 17.7% 的回報，我們有能力透過這種方式賺錢，因為世界上一些最強大的銀行確實喜歡我們。因此，我可以讓它慢慢蔓延。我們將繼續透過股票回購向股東返還資本。我們擁有強勁的資本生成和股息成長。因此，我們將管理整體情況，有能力隨著時間的推移繼續投資於有機成長，如果這對股東和策略性特許經營有意義的話，也可能投資於無機成長。

So you'll see a bit of creep, I think, over time, but we will continue to manage towards accelerating towards those overall ROE targets of 17%-plus. I think we have the financial power to do that. With our capital return and our growth expectations for the business. So I hope that helps. It gives you a context of how we feel about the underlying strength and therefore, how we're going to manage capital and how we're going to manage ROEs.

因此，我認為，隨著時間的推移，你會看到一些成長趨勢，但我們將繼續努力加速實現 17% 以上的整體 ROE 目標。我認為我們有足夠的財力來做到這一點。隨著我們的資本回報和對業務的成長預期。我希望這會有所幫助。它讓您了解我們對潛在實力的看法，以及我們將如何管理資本以及如何管理 ROE。

Yeah, no, helpful. So thank you very much for the detailed response.

是的，不，有幫助。非常感謝您的詳細回覆。

John Aiken, Jefferies.

約翰艾肯，傑富瑞。

Good morning.

早安.

I was hoping that you'd be able to give us a little bit of detail on City National. Can you update us in terms of the progress of where we sit now and also what levers are still yet to be pulled in terms of future profitability expansion?

我希望您能向我們詳細介紹 City National。您能否向我們介紹一下我們目前的進展情況，以及在未來獲利能力擴張方面還有哪些措施尚未實施？

Yeah, thanks for that.

是的，謝謝。

We're extremely happy with the progress we're making at City National as we signaled over the last year in our Investor Day. We continue to progress well and remediation of the platform and are building the platform, and we do. We've allocated a very significant financial resources to do that, which is embedded in the P&L.

正如我們在去年的投資者日所表達的那樣，我們對 City National 所取得的進展感到非常高興。我們繼續順利推進平台的修復和建設，我們正在這樣做。我們為此分配了非常大量的財務資源，這些資源都包含在損益表中。

So earning $149 million with carrying that is really, really impressive part of what City National is doing. City National is now on its kind of front foot and recruiting commercial bankers, recruiting private bankers, adding clients. So we feel very, very good about some of the potential to build the pipelines there and to see good overall loan growth and deposit growth in the franchise going forward.

因此，憑藉這項業務賺取 1.49 億美元確實是 City National 業務中非常令人印象深刻的一部分。目前，City National 正處於領先地位，正在招募商業銀行家、私人銀行家，增加客戶。因此，我們對在那裡建立管道的潛力感到非常非常樂觀，並且看到未來特許經營中整體貸款和存款的良好增長。

We have work to do on our re-platforming through 2026, but we do expect to be able to bring expenses down as we progress through 2026 because there's certainly, I think, in 2025, were at their peak as far as building out our platform and then the strength of our second and third lines of defense. So overall, we feel good about our ability to continue to earn through. And that was a very strong quarter given some of the one-offs, but we don't think it's going to back off too much from that, and we'll be able to replicate growth story from '25 into '26 for City National.

到 2026 年，我們還需要在平台重建方面開展工作，但我們確實希望能夠在 2026 年的過程中降低開支，因為我認為，2025 年我們的平台建設將達到頂峰，第二道和第三道防線的實力也將增強。因此總體而言，我們對自己繼續獲利的能力感到滿意。考慮到一些一次性事件，這是一個非常強勁的季度，但我們認為它不會因此而衰退太多，我們將能夠為 City National 複製 25 年到 26 年的成長故事。

Just a point of clarification, when you talk about expenses coming down in 2026 and further, is that on an absolute basis or is that just incremental operating leverage?

需要澄清的是，當您談到 2026 年及以後的費用下降時，這是絕對下降還是只是增量營運槓桿？

Do you want me -- why don't I jump in?

你想要我──為什麼我不跳進去？

So for City National, we are viewing that on an absolute basis. And you'll heard us talk before about the costs related to remediation being fully loaded. And what we're seeing is that those costs are already starting to come down, and we're expecting to see that to continue as we progress into 2026.

因此，對於 City National，我們是從絕對的角度來看這個問題的。您可能已經聽過我們談論與全面補救相關的成本。我們看到這些成本已經開始下降，我們預計到 2026 年這種趨勢還會持續下去。

Fantastic. Thanks for the responses.

極好的。謝謝大家的回覆。

Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

加布里埃爾·德尚 (Gabriel Dechaine)，國家銀行金融。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

A quick one on the trading result, which was quite strong this quarter, I know client-driven is often the factor here. I'm just wondering if any of the shift in market dynamics between Q2 and Q3 played a role in accounting sense. I know the high-yield business or the leverage finance business was weak in Q2, and the marks must have been much more favorable in Q3.

簡單談談本季的交易結果，結果相當強勁，我知道客戶驅動往往是其中的因素。我只是想知道第二季和第三季之間的市場動態變化是否在會計意義上發揮了作用。我知道高收益業務或槓桿融資業務在第二季表現疲軟，第三季的表現肯定會好得多。

Sure. Thanks for the question, Gabe.

當然。謝謝你的提問，Gabe。

I wouldn't say there was anything particularly abnormal in terms of marks or anything. If you step back and you look at the results, we had very strong results in FICC that was up about 35%. Part of FICC is obviously the credit trading business, where we did see spreads tighten from the end of April through the end of July. That might have been a 5% or 10% positive benefit but not overly material. A lot of it was client-driven.

我不會說分數或其他方面有什麼特別不正常的地方。如果你回顧一下並查看結果，你會發現我們在 FICC 方面取得了非常強勁的業績，成長了約 35%。FICC 的一部分顯然是信貸交易業務，我們確實看到從 4 月底到 7 月底利差有所收窄。這可能是 5% 或 10% 的正面效益，但不是過於實質。其中很多都是由客戶驅動的。

Within FICC as well then we obviously have our repo business, our foreign exchange business that performed very well in our core rates business plus commodities. So we did see very good strength right across the broad array of products. It wasn't just driven by credit. Credit obviously did help us relative to Q2, but I would say it was modest overall.

在 FICC 領域，我們顯然也有回購業務、外匯業務，這些業務在我們的核心利率業務和大宗商品領域表現非常出色。因此，我們確實看到了廣泛產品領域中非常好的實力。這不僅僅是由信貸驅動的。與第二季相比，信貸顯然對我們有幫助，但我認為總體而言，幫助不大。

And then on the equity side, where we've been strategically focused on making a lot of investments, we feel we're making very good headway there. We had over a 40% revenue uplift year over year. Obviously, a constructive environment, but we do feel that a number of the investments and strategic pivots we've made in that business are bearing fruit in driving outperformance in terms of market share capture.

在股權方面，我們一直策略性地集中進行大量投資，我們感覺我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。我們的收入年增了 40% 以上。顯然，這是一個建設性的環境，但我們確實感覺到，我們在該業務中所做的許多投資和策略調整在推動市場份額方面的優異表現方面正在取得成果。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then a question on the credit outlook, I know, Graeme, you gave a lot to chew on there, and I'll definitely go over the transcript. But I just want to kind of look at a couple of things here. One, you released some performing provision, and I see there's a favorable change to your macro outlook which reflects some of the support programs that you're anticipating, one that have been announced as well.

然後是關於信用前景的問題，我知道，格雷姆，你在這方面給了很多值得思考的問題，我一定會仔細查看記錄。但我只是想在這裡看一下幾件事。首先，你們發布了一些績效準備金，我看到你們的宏觀前景發生了有利的變化，這反映了你們預期的一些支持計劃，其中一個也已經宣布了。

Then maybe some signs that there is deterioration in the health of the Canadian consumer. We're seeing rising 90-day delinquency rates in certain categories, unemployment is going up, especially in the major urban centers.

那麼也許有一些跡象顯示加拿大消費者的健康狀況正在惡化。我們發現某些類別的 90 天拖欠率正在上升，失業率也在上升，尤其是在主要城市中心。

And I don't know if this is related, but some of your fastest-growing categories in the Canadian business are HELOCs and credit cards. I'm wondering if that's a sign of stress as well. So balance all these factors are you still anticipating peak loan losses sometime in 2026 or are you getting more or less optimistic? How would you describe it?

我不知道這是否相關，但你們在加拿大業務中成長最快的類別是 HELOC 和信用卡。我想知道這是否也是壓力的表現。那麼，權衡所有這些因素，您是否仍然預計貸款損失將在 2026 年某個時候達到峰值，還是變得更加樂觀或不那麼樂觀？你會如何描述它？

Yeah, thanks, Gabe.

是的，謝謝，加布。

Maybe just to kind of work through some of your elements of the clinic question, I mean, generally we characterize, obviously, we're still in a very kind of elevated level or part of the credit cycle and shipping a little bit is I think we're moving into a period, we're seeing a little bit more stability as we look forward.

也許只是為了解決診所問題中的一些要素，我的意思是，一般來說，我們顯然仍然處於非常高的水平或信貸週期的一部分，運輸有點，我認為我們正在進入一個時期，我們期待著看到更多的穩定性。

And I think that's true both on retail and wholesale, I think, for some time on the retail portfolio, we've been pointing to the fact that the unsecured products have been the ones that we continue to drive our PCL upwards, and that has been very much playing out through 2025. But as we start to look at some of the trends in early delinquencies there, that would start to point to that we're kind of getting closer to that range of being at peak levels, if you will.

我認為零售和批發都是如此，我認為，在零售組合中，一段時間以來，我們一直在指出，無擔保產品是我們繼續推動 PCL 上升的產品，並且這種情況在 2025 年之前一直存在。但是，當我們開始研究那裡早期拖欠債務的一些趨勢時，這將開始表明我們正在接近峰值水平，如果你願意的話。

The mortgage side, I would say, in '25 and going into '26, there's still some headwinds there as we're very much at the heart of that refinancing period that will put pressure on the mortgage portfolio. But so far, that's playing out very much as we expected. And again, the portfolio is very resilient there in terms of both the quality of the client base as well as the very strong underwriting standards that have been in place.

我想說，在抵押貸款方面，在 2025 年和 2026 年，仍然存在一些阻力，因為我們正處於再融資期的核心，這將給抵押貸款組合帶來壓力。但到目前為止，一切進展都和我們預期的差不多。而且，無論是從客戶群的品質還是從已經實施的非常嚴格的承保標準來看，該投資組合都具有很強的彈性。

On that part, I would point to our write-offs is just a good indicator of kind of the recoveries strength we've had so far in that space. And we've seen elevated levels in wholesale in 2025, with the ongoing uncertainty, we would expect that to continue to persist into 2026, particularly around our commercial portfolio and the softness in Canada and the impact of that uncertainty in Canada. But it is a bit more balanced. As I noted, City National in the US side of the portfolio, showing a little more strength right now.

就這一點而言，我想指出，我們的註銷只是我們迄今為止在該領域的復甦實力的一個很好的指標。我們已經看到 2025 年批發水準的上升，由於不確定性的持續存在，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2026 年，特別是圍繞我們的商業投資組合和加拿大的疲軟以及這種不確定性的影響。但它更加平衡一些。正如我所指出的，City National 在美國投資組合中目前表現得更為強勁。

Capital markets, I think, has had some more specific issues that I don't expect would repeat as we look forward. And so overall, I think wholesale, again, will continue to be elevated, but I don't necessarily see anything paying that kind of increasing trends there.

我認為，資本市場已經存在一些更具體的問題，我預計這些問題不會在未來重演。因此，總體而言，我認為批發價格將繼續上漲，但我並不一定看到任何此類上漲趨勢。

So you put it all together, I think it's just a bit more of a balanced story than kind of the kind of increasing levels we've seen through 2025. And we'll get a bit more, I guess, specific in our outlook in Q4 on 2026. But just trying to provide a bit of sense for that trajectory that, again, a difficult part of the credit cycle we're in, but I think kind of that acceleration is slowing down at this point.

所以，把所有這些綜合起來，我認為這是一個更平衡的故事，而不是我們在 2025 年之前看到的那種成長水平。我想，我們將在 2026 年第四季的展望中得到更具體的訊息。但只是試圖為該軌跡提供一點意義，再次強調，我們正處於信貸週期的一個困難部分，但我認為這種加速在這一點上正在放緩。

So no major shift up or down from what you were seeing in Q2. I know there's a lot more going on in queue, but it sounds sort of stable.

因此，與第二季度相比，沒有出現重大的上漲或下跌。我知道隊列中還有很多事情要做，但聽起來還算穩定。

Q2 to Q3, again, Q2, that was really kind of the actions we took with our performing reserve allowances. And that was really reflecting coming off the back of liberation Day and really that kind of acute increase in that political and policy uncertainty that we really felt we needed to up our reserves against that possibility, right? And so that was really that new scenario we put in, we really weighted more against that uncertainty.

從第二季到第三季度，再說一下第二季度，這實際上是我們利用執行儲備金限額所採取的行動。這確實反映了解放日之後政治和政策不確定性的急劇增加，我們真的覺得我們需要提高儲備來應對這種可能性，對嗎？所以這確實是我們提出的新場景，我們確實更重視這種不確定性。

As this plays out, and as Dave called out as we get more clarity on kind of what's happening on kind of CUSMA trade negotiations, that will either give us the opportunity to release some of that back if that negotiation comes out favorably or we're operating from a position of strength that we've got good reserves in place if that proves to be more negative, if you will. So that was really what we were reacting to in Q2 as opposed to something we were seeing specifically at that point in time in our own portfolio.

隨著這一進程的推進，正如戴夫所說，隨著我們對 CUSMA 貿易談判的進展情況越來越清晰，如果談判結果有利，我們將有機會釋放部分資金，或者如果結果更加不利，我們將處於有利地位，因為我們有充足的儲備。所以這其實是我們在第二季做出的反應，而不是我們當時在自己的投資組合中具體看到的情況。

Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets.

Sohrab Movahedi，BMO 資本市場。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Dave, I just thought I'd maybe go to you. I mean, obviously, you feel good about the quarter. I think the commentary you suggested you made us believe anyway that you feel good about meeting the targets. I think you actually inadvertently slipped up and called it a 17% plus ROE as opposed to the 16%. So like I think you're feeling really good about that.

戴夫，我只是想去找你。我的意思是，顯然您對本季感覺良好。我認為，無論如何，您所提出的評論讓我們相信，您對實現目標感到滿意。我認為你實際上是無意中犯了錯誤，將其稱為 17% 以上的 ROE，而不是 16%。所以我認為你對此感覺很好。

And Graeme is talking about certainly the uncertainties for sure, but probably a little bit less so quarter-over-quarter. And I guess what I'm trying to kind of figure out here is, is the uncertainty enough to outweigh the feel good if an inorganic opportunity presented itself or are you feeling good enough about the fundamentals of the franchise that notwithstanding some of the uncertainties that we're all kind of talking about, you would be willing to be opportunistic in an inorganic situation?

格雷姆談論的肯定是不確定性，但與上一季相比，不確定性可能會稍微減少一些。我想我在這裡想弄清楚的是，如果出現無機機會，不確定性是否足以抵消感覺良好？或者，儘管存在我們都在談論的一些不確定性，但您是否對特許經營的基本面感覺足夠好，您願意在無機情況下抓住機會？

Yeah, thank you for that question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

I hope you did pick up my tone. I'm feeling very good about our results and the strength of those results and the sustainability of the results because they're based on client activity and our ability to take a disproportionate share of what our clients are doing. And anything going forward obviously requires our clients to be healthy and active. And we're seeing that resilience.

我希望你確實聽懂了我的語氣。我對我們的業績、這些業績的強度以及業績的可持續性感到非常滿意，因為它們基於客戶活動以及我們承擔客戶所做工作中不成比例份額的能力。顯然，未來任何進展都需要我們的客戶保持健康和活躍。我們看到了這種韌性。

We always do put out that caution that things can change, and there's still a big uncertainty around CUSMA and tariff negotiations that kind of I think hold investors and hold commercial clients from investing capital and therefore, make us a little bit cautious about nailing down certain commitments about the future right now.

我們總是提醒大家，事情可能會發生變化，而且 CUSMA 和關稅談判仍然存在很大的不確定性，我認為這會阻礙投資者和商業客戶進行投資，因此，我們現在對確定未來的某些承諾持謹慎態度。

So we're going to take a quarter to look at that 17.7% was for this quarter, but we have really strong flows to support that 16% plus as we talked about, and we'll see how quickly we grow and accelerate through our Investor Day targets over the coming quarters. So you just stay with us on that, and we'll get to that over the next two or three months as we continue to build the franchise.

因此，我們將用一個季度的時間來看本季的 17.7%，但正如我們所說的，我們有非常強勁的流量來支持 16% 以上，我們將看看我們在未來幾季透過投資者日目標實現成長和加速的速度有多快。所以你只要繼續關注我們，我們就會在接下來的兩三個月內繼續建立特許經營權，實現這一目標。

So I think when it comes to how do you continue to grow, we've got a lot of great inorganic growth opportunities that you saw in my investments, whether it's RBC Clear and the global transaction banking business. We continue to hire in every part of our client-facing business from private banking to wealth management to capital markets, US, Canada, Europe, in particular. And therefore, we are on our front foot as far as continuing to grow the franchise organically with new products and expanded capacity and expanded geographic capacity with City National as well expanding into the Southeast very successfully already.

因此，我認為，當談到如何繼續成長時，我們有很多很好的無機成長機會，這些機會你在我的投資中看到了，無論是 RBC Clear 還是全球交易銀行業務。我們繼續在面向客戶的業務的各個領域招募人才，從私人銀行到財富管理再到資本市場，尤其是美國、加拿大和歐洲。因此，我們在繼續有機地發展特許經營權方面處於領先地位，推出了新產品，擴大了產能，擴大了地域容量，並與 City National 一起向東南部擴張，並且已經非常成功地實現了擴張。

With that though, however, we continue to think about what inorganic opportunities would look like as any company should do. And we have basically the same kind of objectives, as I articulated over the last five years of where we want to grow. We want to grow our wealth franchise, particularly in the United States, but also potentially in Europe as we did with Brewin Dolphin, and we'll continue to look at opportunities. But we have a very high bar on dilution and accretion to the shareholder because of our organic capabilities. I think what you're seeing, Sora and the real strength of our results this year and this quarter is how distracting and how complicated it is to do M&A.

儘管如此，我們仍然像任何公司一樣，繼續思考無機機會是什麼樣的。我們的目標基本上是相同的，正如我在過去五年中闡述的我們想要發展的方向。我們希望擴大我們的財富特許經營權，特別是在美國，但也有可能在歐洲，就像我們對 Brewin Dolphin 所做的那樣，我們將繼續尋找機會。但由於我們的有機能力，我們對股東的稀釋和增值有非常高的標準。索拉，我認為你所看到的以及我們今年和本季業績的真正優勢在於併購是多麼令人分心且多麼複雜。

And it takes the entire management team to land an HSBC and it takes you away from kind of full focus and attention on your current business. And now you're seeing the RBC management team fully focused on the franchise in front of us and growing the franchise, and these are the results.

需要整個管理團隊的努力才能獲得匯豐銀行的支持，這會讓你無法全心全意地專注於目前的業務。現在，您看到 RBC 管理團隊完全專注於我們面前的特許經營權並發展特許經營權，這就是成果。

So when you look at any acquisition and the time it takes from your management team to integrate that, you've got to put it against type results that this team can put together when it focuses organically. And I always look at that trade-off to say, does this justify taking attention away from the great momentum we have in building out our inorganic capabilities.

因此，當您考慮任何收購以及管理團隊整合收購所需的時間時，您必須將其與該團隊在有機關注時所能獲得的結果類型進行比較。我總是會權衡利弊，思考這是否值得我們把注意力從建立無機能力的巨大勢頭上轉移開。

Having said that, there are opportunities that could present themselves that I think are very accretive to you as an investor and to our strategic franchise, particularly in the wealth area. But only if it comes at a price, and a set of terms that allows us to do both.

話雖如此，我認為還是存在一些機會，對於您作為投資者以及我們的策略特許經營來說，尤其是在財富領域，都是非常有益的。但前提是要付出代價，並且要有一套允許我們同時做到這兩點的條款。

And that's what we love about our HSBC acquisition. We didn't lose the momentum in our core business while we made this very complex significant integration. And we would look to make sure that was a set of conditions as well in any other organic.

這就是我們喜歡收購匯豐銀行的原因。在進行這項非常複雜且重大的整合的同時，我們並沒有失去核心業務的發展動能。我們會確保其他有機物也具備相同的條件。

So we have the capital. We have some strategic needs to grow wealth and commercial bank in the United States and in Europe, and we'll continue to think about it and to be prepared to act if it makes sense.

所以我們有資本。我們在美國和歐洲有一些發展財富和商業銀行的策略需求，我們將繼續考慮這個問題，並準備在合理的情況下採取行動。

Very helpful, thank you.

非常有幫助，謝謝。

Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

馬裡奧門東卡，道明證券。

Good morning, Dave. Let me stick with you.

早上好，戴夫。讓我和你在一起。

$3.84 this quarter, if you annualize that, you're getting to a number well above what the Street is forecasting for 2026. So I don't think you would want us to annualize this number. So what I'm asking is if you could do my job for me to this morning (laughter) and tell me what you think Royal over-earned this quarter? Like, is there some way you can help us think?

本季的利潤為 3.84 美元，如果以年率計算，這個數字將遠高於華爾街對 2026 年的預測。所以我不認為你會希望我們將這個數字年化。所以我想問的是，您今天早上能否幫我完成我的工作（笑聲），並告訴我您認為 Royal 本季度的盈利超額是多少？例如，您能用什麼方法來幫助我們思考呢？

Because I don't suspect you want us to annualize this quarter. You don't want to set yourself up that way. So help me think through how much you have earned.

因為我懷疑您不希望我們將本季的業績進行年度化。你不會想讓自己陷入這樣的境地。所以幫我想想你賺了多少錢。

Let me --

讓我--

I'm going to let Katherine start, and then I'll jump in at the end.

我將先讓凱瑟琳開始，然後我會在最後加入。

But, Katherine, why don't you take a swing at that? And then I'll follow up.

但是，凱瑟琳，你為什麼不嘗試呢？然後我會跟進。

Good morning, Mario. I like the question.

早安，馬裡奧。我喜歡這個問題。

The way I would come at it, I would actually anchor you back to the guidance that we've provided to give you that I guess, trend line as we go into the last quarter of the year. And so I take you back to the key components of what drives our results. So if I start with our net interest income. The full-year guidance increased this quarter, and so we are targeting a mid-teen growth for that.

我的做法是，實際上我會讓您回顧我們提供的指導，我想，當我們進入今年最後一個季度時，我們會為您提供趨勢線。因此，我帶大家回顧一下推動我們取得成果的關鍵因素。因此，如果我從我們的淨利息收入開始。本季全年業績指引有所上調，因此我們的目標是實現中等幅度的成長。

That is continuing with the volume, the resilience that Dave was talking to on the volume. So no change to the guidance that we've provided for mortgage volume. We're seeing moderate growth on the commercial side, we're seeing mid- to high for the second half of the year for capital markets we're continuing down the path of mid growth on that front.

這與 Dave 之前在音量上談論的音量和彈性是一致的。因此，我們為抵押貸款量提供的指導沒有變化。我們看到商業方面呈現溫和成長，資本市場下半年將呈現中高速成長，我們將持續保持中速成長的軌跡。

On other income, we don't give specific guidance, but I would take you back to Dave's comments where we do see seasonality in the fourth quarter for capital markets, but we are also seeing optimism from our sponsors from our corporate clients. On the insurance front, really strong quarter. But Q4, we do, I'll call it, seasonality as we do update our annual actuarial assumptions there. If I take us to NIE, updated our guidance there to say mid to high.

對於其他收入，我們沒有給出具體的指導，但我將帶您回顧戴夫的評論，我們確實看到第四季度資本市場的季節性，但我們也看到來自企業客戶的贊助商的樂觀態度。在保險方面，本季表現確實強勁。但在第四季度，我們確實（我稱之為）季節性，因為我們確實在那裡更新了我們的年度精算假設。如果我帶我們去 NIE，我們會更新那裡的指導，說是中到高。

And really, we're at that high end because of the variable comp where the expected continued growth on our commissionable revenue. Taxes no change, still in the range of 20% to 22%. And then you've heard Graham with his comments on the overall PCL.

事實上，我們之所以處於如此高端，是因為可變薪酬預計我們的佣金收入將持續成長。稅率沒有變化，仍在20%至22%的範圍內。然後您聽到了格雷厄姆對整個 PCL 的評論。

And the last item that is a significant item, but it can move is their corporate support, and we're looking for that in Q4 to be towards the lower end of the range. Putting that all together, we're expecting still positive strong outlet going into the fourth quarter. So I hope you take away from that. I guess I'm giving you still a little bit of work on that front, Mario, but I hope you can step away from that and arrive at a view for the fourth quarter.

最後一項很重要，但可以變動的是他們的企業支持，我們預計第四季度該支援將處於該範圍的低端。綜合考慮這些因素，我們預計第四季經濟仍將保持強勁成長。所以我希望你能從中學到教訓。馬裡奧，我想在這方面我還會給你一些工作，但我希望你能擺脫這個困境，對第四季有一個大致的了解。

I'll do my best.

我會盡力的。

But on this assumption review in insurance, can you give us an order of magnitude, like is this something meaningful, you've mentioned a couple of times, so I suspect it matters.

但是，對於保險中的這個假設審查，您能否給我們一個數量級，例如這是否有意義，您已經提到過幾次，所以我認為這很重要。

Hi, it's Jennifer.

你好，我是珍妮佛。

So as far as just, I guess, broader context on insurance for a second, as you heard at Investor Day, we are looking to mid-single digits in terms of overall earning capacity year over year. So we're still guiding to that for the year. We have had some lumpiness. In Q1, we had a significant recapture client-driven that is not something that we would expect to sustain.

因此，就保險的更廣泛背景而言，正如您在投資者日聽到的那樣，我們預計總體盈利能力將逐年增長至中等個位數。因此，我們今年仍將以此為指導。我們遇到了一些困難。在第一季度，我們取得了顯著的恢復客戶驅動力，但我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。

On the actuarial assumptions, we're still working through them. We do have a book of business that we're continuing to run off. And we actually recaptured a couple of those treaties in Q2 to reduce that volatility. But it's going to be actually in line with what we've had in previous years on this book of business. So it's a significant adjustment, but we will expect Q4 to be lower.

關於精算假設，我們仍在努力研究。我們確實有一本正在繼續經營的業務簿。實際上，我們在第二季度重新獲得了幾項條約，以減少這種波動。但它實際上與我們前幾年在這本商業書籍上的內容一致。因此這是一個重大調整，但我們預計第四季會更低。

All right.

好的。

And if I could, let me just finish up with Graeme. On these calls, we often listen to what you say and we try to parse your words, and you sound as others have suggested more comfortable today than you did in Q2. Your peers, however, several of them are sending less comfortable. And I'm referring specifically now to the retail book.

如果可以的話，請允許我和格雷姆一起結束演講。在這些電話會議中，我們經常傾聽您的發言並嘗試分析您的措辭，正如其他人所說，您今天聽起來比第二季度更加自在。然而，您的同行中有幾個人卻不太舒服。我現在特別指的是零售書籍。

And how you think about your write-offs in retail, I think it's something worth looking at, to believe it's page maybe page 25 or something of your supplement. So the write-offs in retail continue to move higher, but you're suggesting that, that's starting to stabilize. Your peers, several of them use the pig in the python analogy in describing how things would continue to deteriorate right until 2026.

至於您如何看待零售業的註銷，我認為這是值得關注的事情，相信它可能是第 25 頁或補充內容。因此，零售業的註銷額繼續走高，但您認為這種情況正在開始穩定。在您的同行中，有幾位用豬和蟒蛇的比喻來描述情況將如何持續惡化，直到 2026 年。

So I'm trying to figure out if there's a difference between Royal's book of personal loans, cards, lines of credit, at all that sort of thing. If it's different from some of the other peers that are giving us the pig in the python analogy. Does it matter that Royal's business mix and exposure is to the more affluent versus, say, the mass affluent and some of the other banks? Does that matter? And have you ever seen periods where that difference has appeared in Royal's results?

所以我想弄清楚 Royal 的個人貸款、信用卡、信用額度等帳簿之間是否存在差異。如果它與其他一些給我們蟒蛇類比中的豬的同行不同。皇家銀行的業務組合和業務範圍主要針對較富裕的人群，而不是大眾富裕人群和其他一些銀行，這很重要嗎？這有關係嗎？您是否曾經看到皇家隊成績出現這種差異的時期？

Thanks, Mario.

謝謝，馬裡奧。

I'm not sure to respond to the pig in the python comment credit terminology we use here, but I wouldn't say a lot has changed quarter over quarter. I think we've just progressed closer to kind of that end state. And I just maybe pick on a word Dave used earlier, I know everyone is always interested in when we're going to see kind of that peak high of the credit cycle.

我不確定是否要回應我們在這裡使用的 Python 評論信用術語中的豬，但我不會說季度與季度之間發生了很大變化。我認為我們已經越來越接近那種最終狀態了。我可能只是選擇戴夫之前用過的一個詞，我知道每個人都對我們何時會看到信貸週期的峰值感興趣。

I think what we try to guide to a little bit is we're kind of in that range now, and we would expect to persist in that range now. And so it's not going to be some singular magical quarter where we hit that peak and then instantly it comes down quick off of that. We are in a difficult part of the credit cycle that's going to persist into 2026, but we're probably in that range right now.

我認為我們嘗試引導的是我們現在處於這個範圍內，我們希望現在能夠保持在這個範圍內。因此，這不會是某個神奇的季度，我們達到頂峰後，又會立即快速回落。我們正處於信貸週期的困難時期，這種情況將持續到 2026 年，但我們現在可能正處於這一範圍內。

When we look at our retail franchise, we absolutely do have a very strong client base there, and that has always produced, I think, very strong results for us from a credit perspective. I would look at point at products like our cards business, for example, and kind of the nature of that product set, the nature of who we attract as a bank means that product has always been a very, very strong performer for us from a PCL perspective both on an absolute and a relative basis. And so we glean a lot from that from data and insights as well and how that feeds our overall risk programs.

當我們審視我們的零售特許經營權時，我們確實在那裡擁有非常強大的客戶群，而且我認為，從信貸角度來看，這一直為我們帶來非常強勁的業績。我會關注我們的信用卡業務等產品，以及該產品系列的性質，我們作為銀行所吸引的客戶的性質意味著，從 PCL 的角度來看，該產品在絕對和相對基礎上一直對我們具有非常非常強勁的表現。因此，我們從數據和見解中收集到了很多信息，並了解它們如何為我們的整體風險計劃提供資訊。

But that is often a good leading indicator for us. It is the one that drives the PCL as we go up. But we’re certainly looking at trends around products like that as we go forward. And so as I said, we're seeing more stability there, and that helps kind of point and guide us as we think about what may play out in 2026.

但這對我們來說通常是一個很好的領先指標。它是我們上升過程中驅動 PCL 的因素。但我們在前進的過程中肯定會關注此類產品的趨勢。正如我所說，我們看到那裡更加穩定，這有助於我們思考 2026 年可能發生的事情。

I would say likewise, as we've been going through the cycle, we've been taking actions to help kind of manage the front book and as flows come in. We've been taking actions to kind of get the clients earlier and ensure we kind of create the best outcomes possible.

我想說的是，同樣地，當我們經歷這個週期時，我們一直在採取行動來幫助管理前台帳簿和流入的流量。我們一直在採取行動，以便儘早獲得客戶並確保創造最好的結果。

And again, likewise, in many of these products, we'll start to see some of the benefits of those to offset kind of the ongoing headwinds of weakness in the Canadian economy. To put all together, again, the quality of that client base, I think the good underwriting standards I think very high discipline we have around our credit processes in retail. That's all kind of plans on how we're thinking about the book now and how that might play out in 2026.

同樣，在許多此類產品中，我們將開始看到它們的一些好處，以抵消加拿大經濟持續疲軟的阻力。總而言之，再次強調，客戶群的品質、良好的核保標準，以及我們在零售信貸流程中所製定的非常嚴格的紀律。這些都是關於我們現在如何構思這本書以及它在 2026 年可能如何實現的計劃。

Mike Rizvanovic.

麥克·裡茲瓦諾維奇。

I have a couple of quick questions. I wanted to start with Erica.

我有幾個簡單的問題。我想從艾麗卡開始。

On slide 6, on my eye is the chart on the top left quadrant. So it's that recent outperformance in discretionary and travel spend on the cards. Just trying to get my head wrapped around just in light of tariff risk and the unemployment market not looking as robust as it has been as it had been prior to the tariffs dynamic coming into play.

在第 6 張投影片上，我看到的是左上象限的圖表。因此，近期可自由支配支出和旅遊支出的優異表現是可以預見的。我只是試圖弄清楚，鑑於關稅風險和失業市場看起來不像關稅動態發揮作用之前那麼強勁。

What's driving that? Is this just largely unit gains and in gaining market share? Or I'm not sure what I'm missing here. Is it inflation, but what do you think is driving that?

是什麼原因導致的呢？這主要是單位收益和市場佔有率的增加嗎？或者我不確定我在這裡遺漏了什麼。這是通貨膨脹嗎？您認為是什麼導致了通貨膨脹？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Mike.

是的。謝謝你的提問，麥克。

A couple of things I would say, the cards portfolio for us has been pleasing well from a growth perspective in terms of balance formations and the spend that we're seeing on cards with clients, as Graeme just alluded to, that we feel very comfortable with. And so when we dissect what you're seeing on the top left of that chart, that is the core RBC client who has been performing well from a loss perspective, demonstrating increased confidence as a consumer and their willingness to spend.

我想說的幾件事是，從成長的角度來看，我們的信用卡產品組合在餘額形成和客戶信用卡支出方面都令人滿意，正如 Graeme 剛才提到的，我們對此感到非常滿意。因此，當我們分析圖表左上角的內容時，就會發現從虧損角度來看，核心 RBC 客戶表現良好，顯示他們作為消費者的信心增強，並且願意消費。

And so we've seen those green shoots across the portfolio from the Canadian consumer over this quarter. And so that's what we see on that trend. The other side I would say is that we have taken a lot of action.

因此，我們在本季度看到了加拿大消費者的整個投資組合中出現的復甦跡象。這就是我們所看到的趨勢。另一方面我想說的是我們已經採取了很多行動。

We talked today about some of the work that we've done from an AI and modeling perspective, and Dave alluded to it in his remarks related to the Adam model and what we're seeing. We are seeing our ability to deeper penetrate into our client base for those clients demonstrate results for us in our cards portfolio, and you're seeing that in the aggregate balance growth we're seeing, and we're seeing that in the purchase volumes that we're seeing on our cards. And so that I think is just reflective of the strength of the portfolio as well as the consumer becoming more confident.

今天，我們從人工智慧和建模的角度討論了我們所做的一些工作，戴夫在與亞當模型和我們所看到的情況相關的評論中也提到了這一點。我們看到，我們有能力更深入地滲透到我們的客戶群中，這些客戶在我們的信用卡產品組合中為我們展示了成果，您可以從我們的總餘額增長中看到這一點，也可以從我們的信用卡購買量中看到這一點。因此我認為這只是反映了投資組合的實力以及消費者信心的增強。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

保羅霍爾頓，加拿大帝國商業銀行。

Thank you, thanks for taking my question. It's for Sean.

謝謝，感謝您回答我的問題。這是給肖恩的。

So trying to really figure out the outlook for commercial lending, and let me frame it quickly, if I can, like, I think Dave made comments around commercial customers a little bit more cautious. I think Graeme has suggested something similar in terms of the sort of credit outlook for commercial.

因此，試圖真正弄清楚商業貸款的前景，讓我快速概括一下，如果可以的話，我認為戴夫對商業客戶的評論更加謹慎。我認為格雷姆在商業信貸前景方面也提出了類似的建議。

But then at the same time, I think corporate clients, some more positive outlook? And then also when I look at your actual loan growth, it's pretty good, including a small business. So just trying to figure out what is kind of the right outlook here, robust growth, sort of lukewarm growth or the potential for something that get better, particularly if we get a final trade negotiation with the US done?

但同時，我認為企業客戶的前景會更樂觀？然後，當我看到你的實際貸款成長時，它相當不錯，包括小型企業。所以只是想弄清楚什麼是正確的前景，強勁的成長，溫和的成長還是情況好轉的潛力，特別是如果我們與美國完成最終的貿易談判？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Paul.

是的，謝謝你的提問，保羅。

Let me just maybe add some context of Q3, and I'll give some guidance on Q4. So to your point, our sequential growth in Q3 was 1.2%, and so in line with the guidance from last quarter of 1% to 1.5%.

我可能只是添加一些 Q3 的背景，然後我會對 Q4 給出一些指導。正如您所說，我們第三季的環比成長率為 1.2%，與上一季 1% 至 1.5% 的預期一致。

Just for context, so that's quite a bit lower than sort of on a rolling 4-quarter basis, we were averaging about 1.7% to 2% growth. At this point, we're maintaining our guidance into Q4 of about 1% to 1.5% with potential to be at the upper end of that range.

僅就背景而言，這比連續 4 個季度的成長速度要低得多，我們的平均成長率約為 1.7% 至 2%。目前，我們維持對第四季度成長約 1% 至 1.5% 的預期，並有可能達到該範圍的上限。

As you mentioned, sort of the Q1, Q2 levels of uncertainty and I'd say, historically low business sentiment definitely drove a significant reduction in sort of the conversion onto the balance sheet from our pipelines. But I'd say, relative to four to six months ago, uncertainty has definitely improved. The business sentiment has definitely improved. But those pipeline conversions haven't really activated yet to, let's say, previous levels. So that's partially why we're maintaining our guidance into the back half of the year.

正如您所提到的，第一季和第二季的不確定性水平，以及我認為的歷史低位商業情緒，無疑導致了我們的管道向資產負債表的轉換大幅減少。但我想說，相對於四到六個月前，不確定性肯定有所改善。商業情緒確實有所改善。但這些管道轉換尚未真正激活到以前的水平。這就是我們維持下半年預測的原因之一。

I'd say we're also encouraged by the narrative around fiscal stimulus. But as you know, action hasn't really sort of driven the activity yet in the marketplace. But the other factors maybe I'd guide you to with respect to our portfolio and why we continue to support our confidence in our Investor Day target, obviously, we benefit from having the largest, most diversified portfolio, as you mentioned, from small business to large corporates across every segment, segment, sector and geography. And we are looking to extend our leadership position in all of those sectors.

我想說，財政刺激的敘述也讓我們感到鼓舞。但如你所知，行動還沒有真正推動市場活動。但是，關於投資組合的其他因素，我或許可以向您介紹，為什麼我們繼續對投資者日目標充滿信心，顯然，我們受益於擁有最大、最多樣化的投資組合，正如您所提到的，從小型企業到大型企業，涵蓋各個細分市場、部門、行業和地區。我們希望擴大我們在所有這些領域的領導地位。

We will see the increased contribution from the HSBC portfolio as well. Those pipelines remain quite robust. But similar to the broader RBC portfolio, and I'd say similar to the broader commercial industry, kind of that uncertainty is what's driven the pause in some of the investment activity.

我們也將看到匯豐投資組合的貢獻增加。這些管道仍然相當堅固。但與更廣泛的 RBC 投資組合類似，我想說與更廣泛的商業行業類似，這種不確定性是部分投資活動暫停的原因。

And so those are how I would think about it. Slower than recent growth. Outlook remains consistent with Q3 with some sort of green shoots that could drive that to higher growth levels in the midterm.

這就是我對此的看法。比近期成長速度慢。前景與第三季保持一致，並出現一些復甦跡象，可能在中期推動其達到更高的成長水平。

That's helpful. And I'll leave it there in the interest of time.

這很有幫助。為了節省時間，我就把它留在那裡。

Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

Matthew Lee，Canaccord Genuity。

Maybe on the Canadian business, both personal and commercial, you delivered really substantial improvements in efficiency I know you called out HSBC synergies, but are there any other items you can talk about that contributing to that cost impression?

也許在加拿大個人和商業業務方面，你們確實在效率方面取得了實質性的提高，我知道你們提到了匯豐銀行的協同效應，但還有其他因素對成本影響你們可以談談嗎？

Yeah, so maybe on the personal bank as it relates to the efficiency ratio, I think the team has done very good job of just general expense management control. You saw that reflected in the results that we have there.

是的，也許就個人銀行與效率比率而言，我認為團隊在一般費用管理控制方面做得非常好。您會看到，這一點已反映在我們所取得的成果中。

So in addition to the HSBC synergies, we're seeing good cost discipline as we think about balancing both the growth that's necessary in the platform and driving that growth and the spend that we need to drive that growth, but as well as making sure that we are disciplined in our costs. And obviously, the revenue line perspective, we've seen strong revenue growth in the franchise.

因此，除了匯豐銀行的協同效應之外，我們還看到了良好的成本紀律，因為我們正在考慮平衡平台所需的成長和推動這種成長以及推動這種成長所需的支出，同時也確保我們在成本方面有紀律。顯然，從收入角度來看，我們看到特許經營的收入強勁成長。

And as Dave alluded to, that's really on the back of how we're supporting our clients, both strong acquisition and client growth from that side as well as the consolidation of their business at RBC, which is playing off on both sides of the balance sheet, both in our deposit franchise and our lending franchise.

正如戴夫所提到的，這實際上取決於我們如何支持我們的客戶，包括強勁的收購和客戶成長，以及加拿大皇家銀行業務的整合，這在我們的存款特許經營權和貸款特許經營權的資產負債表的兩邊都發揮作用。

And quickly on the commercial side, consistent with the enterprise and to Katherine's comments, we did achieve 100% of the HSBC cost synergies this quarter. We also had some tailwind from the PPA, which will start to roll off into next year. But given the size of the platform, we have similar to Erica's points, very strong cost discipline within the business while continuing to invest in product platform and coverage to drive growth going forward, both on the volume side and the revenue side. So we're pretty confident in sort of maintaining this level of efficiency ratio based on those factors.

在商業方面，與企業和凱瑟琳的評論一致，我們本季確實實現了 100% 的匯豐成本協同效應。我們也獲得了 PPA 的一些助力，該政策將於明年開始實施。但考慮到平台的規模，我們與 Erica 的觀點類似，在業務中實行非常嚴格的成本紀律，同時繼續投資於產品平台和覆蓋範圍，以推動未來的成長，無論是在數量方面還是收入方面。因此，基於這些因素，我們非常有信心維持這種效率比率水準。

Yeah, so this is Dave. So let me try to bring this home. And I appreciate all your comments and trying to understand how to project these outstanding results going forward, and I'm sensitive to that. We are very proud of what we achieved.

是的，這就是戴夫。所以讓我嘗試把它帶回家。我感謝你們的所有評論，並試圖了解如何預測這些出色的結果，我對此很敏感。我們對於所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

I think you've gotten a lot of good feedback on where we think results are very sustainable across wealth, capital markets, commercial banking, consumer banking, where they might be a little bit spiky like insurance and some of the changes that might come in Q4. And therefore, let me try to help you kind of forecast this.

我認為您已經收到了很多很好的回饋，我們認為財富、資本市場、商業銀行、消費者銀行業務的結果非常可持續，但在某些領域，例如保險，可能會出現一些波動，第四季度可能會出現一些變化。因此，讓我嘗試幫助您預測這一點。

I would say, given the significant difference between what we achieved at $5.5 billion versus where consensus was, I would expect as we look at all these factors going forward and again, all conditional on clients continue to transact and no material falloff in our clients' sentiment and ability to continue to do business. I would expect we can produce results in the next quarter that are closer to what we achieved than where consensus was.

我想說，鑑於我們實現的 55 億美元與普遍共識之間存在顯著差異，我預計，當我們展望未來所有這些因素時，所有條件都是客戶繼續交易，並且客戶情緒和繼續開展業務的能力不會出現實質性下降。我希望我們下個季度能夠取得比共識更接近我們所取得的成果。

So if you look at the difference between the two, I think we're slightly better than the halfway point and use that as kind of a rough guide on where we think we can come out and all dependent on where clients and where tariffs go and how the world evolves. But I think we're closer to what people continue to achieve what we did than where you thought we were. I hope that helps.

因此，如果你看一下兩者之間的差異，我認為我們比中間點稍微好一點，並將其作為我們認為可以實現的目標的粗略指南，一切都取決於客戶、關稅走向和世界如何發展。但我認為，我們比你想像的更接近人們繼續實現的我們所取得的成就。我希望這能有所幫助。

I think it shows the enormous strength of the franchise and ability to earn $5.5 billion to 17.7% ROE and the strength of all our businesses and investments we've made and we're going to continue to build on this going forward is we've got a couple of businesses that can do better as you pointed out, and therefore, our investments that we continue to make, we'll see further growth, and we'll keep moving forward. So thank you for your questions. Thank you for your time. We look forward to seeing you at year-end with a further update.

我認為這顯示了特許經營的巨大實力和賺取 55 億美元至 17.7% ROE 的能力，以及我們所有業務和投資的實力，我們將繼續在此基礎上繼續前進，正如您所指出的，我們有幾項業務可以做得更好，因此，我們繼續進行的投資將看到進一步的增長，我們將繼續前進。感謝您的提問。感謝您抽出時間。我們期待在年底與您見面並為您提供進一步的更新。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's all the time we have for questions.

我們回答問題的時間就這麼多了。

I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. McKay.

現在我想將會議交還給麥凱先生。

That would be it from our end.

從我們的角度來看，這就是全部了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

此時請斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。