Royal Bank of Canada (RY) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to RBC's Conference Call for the First Quarter 2024 financial results. Please be advised that this call is being recorded.

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加 RBC 關於 2024 年第一季財務業績的電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Asim Imran, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Imran.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管阿西姆·伊姆蘭 (Asim Imran)。請繼續，伊姆蘭先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking today will be Dave McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer; Nadine Ahn, Chief Financial Officer; and Graeme Hepworth, Chief Risk Officer. Also joining us today for your questions, Neil McLaughlin, Group Head, Personal and Commercial Banking; Doug Guzman, Group Head, Wealth Management and Insurance; and Derek Neldner, Group Head, Capital Markets.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天發言的是總裁兼執行長 Dave McKay；納丁‧安 (Nadine Ahn)，財務長；首席風險長 Graeme Hepworth。今天也加入我們，回答您的問題，個人和商業銀行業務集團主管 Neil McLaughlin； Doug Guzman，財富管理和保險部門主管；和資本市場集團主管 Derek Neldner。

As noted on Slide 1, our comments may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. To give everyone a chance to ask questions, we ask that you limit your questions and then requeue.

如投影片 1 所示，我們的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及假設並具有固有的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我還想提醒聽眾，銀行在報告和調整的基礎上評估其業績，並認為兩者對於評估基本業務業績都很有用。為了讓每個人都有機會提問，我們要求您限制提問，然後重新排隊。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

有了這個，我會把它交給戴夫。

Thanks a lot, Asim. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Today, we reported first quarter earnings of $3.6 billion or adjusted earnings of $4.1 billion. Our results benefited from higher fee-based revenue in wealth management, including strong flows in our advisory businesses and solid performance and asset management. Broad-based client-driven volume growth in Canadian Banking more than offset escalating competitive growth in Canadian Bank more than offset escalating competitive pricing pressures.

非常感謝，阿西姆。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。今天，我們報告第一季收益為 36 億美元，調整後收益為 41 億美元。我們的業績得益於財富管理收費收入的增加，包括諮詢業務的強勁流動性以及穩健的業績和資產管理。加拿大銀行業由廣泛的客戶驅動的業務量成長足以抵消加拿大銀行不斷升級的競爭性成長，遠遠抵消了不斷升級的競爭性定價壓力。

Capital Markets reported strong pre-provision pretax earnings of $1.3 billion as we continued to gain market share. Importantly, core expense growth continued to decelerate demonstrating our ongoing discipline, which Nadine will speak to shortly. The strength of our diversified earnings stream more than mitigated the increase in provisions from credit loss in our commercial real estate and Canadian unsecured [health] portfolios. As Graeme will speak to later, we expect PCL and impaired loans to remain within the guidance we provided last quarter.

隨著我們繼續擴大市場份額，資本市場公佈了 13 億美元的強勁預撥稅前獲利。重要的是，核心費用成長持續減速，證明了我們持續的紀律，納丁很快就會談到這一點。我們多元化收益流的實力不僅緩解了我們商業房地產和加拿大無擔保[健康]投資組合信貸損失撥備的增加。正如 Graeme 稍後將談到的，我們預計 PCL 和減損貸款將保持在我們上季度提供的指導範圍內。

We remain confident in our risk management framework including our prudent and consistent underwriting and our rigorous monitoring and stress testing processes. Furthermore, our strong capital position and prudent allowances position us well for any further deterioration in credit quality. We added $133 million of PCL on performing loans this quarter, increasing our ratio of allowance for credit losses to 64 basis points, up 11 basis points from pre-pandemic levels.

我們對我們的風險管理框架仍然充滿信心，包括我們審慎一致的承保以及嚴格的監控和壓力測試流程。此外，我們強大的資本狀況和審慎的準備金使我們能夠應對信貸品質的進一步惡化。本季我們增加了 1.33 億美元的履約貸款 PCL，將信貸損失準備金比率提高至 64 個基點，比疫情前的水平提高了 11 個基點。

The strength of our balance sheet is further underscored by a robust CET1 ratio of 14.9%, up 220 basis points from last year. Additionally, our liquidity coverage ratio was 132% this quarter translating to a $94 billion surplus above the regulatory minimum. Our balance sheet strength, diversified business model and franchise scale position us to continue delivering value for our clients and shareholders through a wide range of monetary and economic scenarios. Growing inflation suggests central banks are close to achieving the soft landing they've been aiming for. However, trends are diverging across geographies.

14.9% 的強勁 CET1 比率進一步凸顯了我們資產負債表的實力，比去年上升 220 個基點。此外，本季我們的流動性覆蓋率為 132%，這意味著比監管最低水準高出 940 億美元的盈餘。我們的資產負債表實力、多元化的業務模式和特許經營規模使我們能夠透過廣泛的貨幣和經濟情景繼續為客戶和股東創造價值。不斷上升的通膨顯示各國央行即將實現一直目標的軟著陸。然而，不同地區的趨勢存在差異。

Canada is lagging peers in growth in GDP per capita, partly due to a slowdown in spending on discretionary goods and services, including on an inflation-adjusted basis. RBC's card transaction data suggests average growth in our non-auto retail sales has continued to moderate. Slowing consumer demand and rising unemployment points to a softening in Canadian economic backdrop. In contrast, the U.S. is showing continued strength in labor markets, above average wage growth, a resilient U.S. consumer and higher corporate profits, suggesting the effect of federal funds rate may remain higher for slightly longer.

加拿大的人均國內生產毛額成長落後於其他國家，部分原因是非必需品和服務支出放緩，包括經通膨調整後的支出。加拿大皇家銀行的卡片交易數據表明，我們的非汽車零售銷售的平均成長持續放緩。消費者需求放緩和失業率上升表明加拿大經濟背景疲軟。相較之下，美國勞動力市場持續強勁，薪資成長高於平均水平，美國消費者富有彈性，企業利潤更高，這表明聯邦基金利率的影響可能會在稍長的時間內保持在較高水平。

Nonetheless, we expect more sustained decline in inflation measures to push both U.S. and Canadian central banks to follow recent global examples and pivot to a more dovish stance this year. Bifurcation and trends suggest the Bank of Canada should move on rate cuts earlier than the U.S. Fed. The uncertainty around monetary policy points to 2024 being somewhat a transitional year as markets consider the impact of interest rate trajectories and rising geopolitical tensions on equity markets, credit quality, capital market revenues and client preferences.

儘管如此，我們預期通膨指標的持續下降將促使美國和加拿大央行效仿最近的全球例子，並在今年轉向更鴿派的立場。分歧和趨勢顯示加拿大央行應該比聯準會更早採取降息行動。貨幣政策的不確定性表明 2024 年在某種程度上是過渡年，因為市場會考慮利率軌跡和不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢對股票市場、信貸品質、資本市場收入和客戶偏好的影響。

With this context, I will now speak to Q1 revenue growth drivers and an outlook across our franchises, where we continue to gain share in key areas. Starting in Canadian Banking, where we continue to benefit from our long-term scale advantages, we reported strong growth in our high-quality deposit franchise, which is the foundation for building premium loan growth and deepening existing client relationships.

在這種背景下，我現在將談談第一季的營收成長驅動因素和我們特許經營權的前景，我們將繼續在關鍵領域獲得份額。從加拿大銀行業開始，我們繼續受益於我們的長期規模優勢，我們報告了高品質存款業務的強勁成長，這是建立優質貸款成長和深化現有客戶關係的基礎。

Q1 2024 was a record quarter with net new to bank clients up 29% year-over-year due to our distribution strength, technology investments and innovative client value proposition including RBC Vantage and partnerships with Canadian industry leaders. With interest rates remaining higher than pre-pandemic levels, we continue to support our clients' preference for shifting their assets into term deposits, especially within the higher net worth cohorts.

2024 年第一季是創紀錄的季度，由於我們的分銷實力、技術投資和創新的客戶價值主張（包括 RBC Vantage）以及與加拿大行業領導者的合作關係，銀行新客戶淨額同比增長 29%。由於利率仍高於疫情前的水平，我們繼續支持客戶將資產轉為定期存款的偏好，特別是在淨資產較高的人群中。

Commercial loan growth remained strong, up 14% from last year and balanced growth across sectors, particularly amongst our existing clients. While our clients remain optimistic we expect lower CapEx investments in anticipation of slower economic growth. Growth in our leading Canadian credit card franchise was up 13% year-over-year as higher revolver balances significantly outpaced increased increases in transactor balances.

商業貸款成長依然強勁，比去年增長 14%，各行業增長均衡，尤其是我們現有客戶的成長。儘管我們的客戶仍然樂觀，但我們預計由於經濟成長放緩，資本支出投資將會減少。我們領先的加拿大信用卡特許經營業務的增長同比增長了 13%，因為循環餘額的增長明顯超過了交易者餘額的增長。

In contrast, mortgage growth declined to 3% year-over-year as a strong retention rate offset continued pressure on home prices. While we anticipate some continued recovery of housing resell activity, we expect mortgage growth to remain in the low single digits through 2024 as we remain disciplined on pricing and spreads amidst intense competition.

相比之下，由於強勁的保留率抵消了房價的持續壓力，抵押貸款成長率比去年同期下降至 3%。雖然我們預計房屋轉售活動將持續復甦，但我們預計到 2024 年抵押貸款成長將保持在較低的個位數，因為我們在激烈的競爭中仍然嚴格控制定價和利差。

Turning to our Wealth Management segment, where combined assets under administration across our Canadian, U.S. and international wealth advisory businesses have grown to nearly $1.6 trillion. Assets under administration and our leading Canadian wealth management business were up 12% from last year, increasing to a record level of nearly $600 billion. Assets under administration in our U.S. wealth management platform, including the sixth largest wealth adviser in the U.S., increased 12% year-over-year to nearly USD 600 billion or over CAD 800 million, which is a record.

轉向我們的財富管理部門，我們在加拿大、美國和國際財富諮詢業務管理的總資產已增長至近 1.6 兆美元。我們管理的資產和我們領先的加拿大財富管理業務比去年增長了 12%，達到近 6000 億美元的創紀錄水平。我們的美國財富管理平台（包括美國第六大財富顧問）管理的資產年增12%，達到近6,000億美元或超過8億加元，創歷史新高。

While higher markets are a key driver of client asset growth, our Canadian U.S. Wealth Advisory business has generated $16 billion and $12 billion of net sales, respectively, over the last 12 months. We believe there is significant opportunity for continued growth, and we will continue to invest in adviser recruitment across North America.

雖然高端市場是客戶資產成長的關鍵驅動力，但我們的加拿大美國財富諮詢業務在過去 12 個月中分別創造了 160 億美元和 120 億美元的淨銷售額。我們相信持續成長的機會龐大，我們將繼續投資於北美各地的顧問招募。

In contrast, net interest income in our Wealth Management businesses were impacted by similar trends seen in Canadian Banking, namely a shift from deposits into higher-yielding products.

相較之下，我們財富管理業務的淨利息收入受到加拿大銀行業類似趨勢的影響，即從存款轉向高收益產品。

RBC Global Asset Management's AUM increased 6% from last year, benefiting from higher markets. Canadian Retail net outflows this quarter were less than 1% of opening AUM, outperforming the industry, which has faced a challenging backdrop over the last year. We are confident that our leading franchises are well positioned to capture money in motion back into investment products following a shift in the interest rate outlook and risk sentiment, particularly when it comes to fixed income strategies, which is one of our core strengths.

受惠於市場走高，加拿大皇家銀行全球資產管理公司的資產管理規模較去年增加了 6%。本季加拿大零售業淨流出不到期初資產管理規模的 1%，表現優於去年面臨挑戰的產業。我們相信，隨著利率前景和風險情緒的變化，我們的領先特許經營商能夠將流動資金重新投入到投資產品中，特別是在固定收益策略方面，這是我們的核心優勢之一。

There are early signs of these trends with RBC's retail long-term net flows turning positive in January for the first time since February last year, led by fixed income mandates. Furthermore, RBC GAM delivered over $4 billion of long-term institutional flows this quarter, which is a testament to our deep client relationships. Demand for ETF products was also strong as RBC eyes Shares Alliance led the industry with long-term net sales of $5 billion for calendar Q4.

這些趨勢的早期跡像是，在固定收益委託的帶動下，加拿大皇家銀行的零售長期淨流量自去年 2 月以來首次在 1 月轉為正值。此外，RBC GAM 本季交付了超過 40 億美元的長期機構資金流，證明了我們深厚的客戶關係。對 ETF 產品的需求也很強勁，因為加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 認為股票聯盟 (Shares Alliance) 在第四季度的長期淨銷售額為 50 億美元，處於行業領先地位。

Capital Markets reported pretax pre-provision earnings of $1.3 billion, the second highest since 2021 and well above our $1.1 billion run rate guidance. Corporate Investment Banking revenues were up 3% from last year. Our Investment Banking business ranked eighth globally in the first quarter with a market share of 2.3%, up 30 basis points from where we ended fiscal 2023, with share gains across all our products. We're benefiting from the successful execution of past strategic investments and talent, combined with a focus on increasing banker productivity.

資本市場報告稱，稅前撥備前收益為 13 億美元，為 2021 年以來第二高，遠高於我們 11 億美元的運行率指引。企業投資銀行業務收入較去年成長 3%。我們的投資銀行業務第一季在全球排名第八，市佔率為 2.3%，比 2023 財年結束時成長了 30 個基點，所有產品的份額均有所增長。我們受惠於過去策略投資和人才的成功執行，以及對提高銀行家生產力的關注。

Our pipeline remains healthy, and we're engaging in increased dialogue with corporate clients. Furthermore, we expect private equity activity to ramp up as sponsors sit on significant levels of uninvested client funds. That said, due to evolving market conditions, including an uncertain macro and regulatory environment, it's hard to predict when deal completions will sustainably rebid.

我們的管道保持健康，我們正在加強與企業客戶的對話。此外，我們預計私募股權活動將會增加，因為贊助商持有大量未投資的客戶資金。儘管如此，由於不斷變化的市場條件，包括不確定的宏觀和監管環境，很難預測交易完成時間將持續重新競價。

Global Markets also had a solid quarter. While overall revenues were down compared to a very strong prior year quarter, we grew origination and secondary client volumes consistent with our strategic focus for the business. We also did not experience any trading loss days this quarter, a reflection of the strong market risk management culture. We also recently launched our U.S. cash management business, and we will look to provide a progress update at the end of this year on the value provided to both clients and to RBC's funding profile.

全球市場也有一個穩定的季度。儘管整體營收與去年同期的強勁表現相比有所下降，但我們的原始客戶和二級客戶數量的成長與我們的業務策略重點一致。本季我們也沒有經歷任何交易損失，這反映了強大的市場風險管理文化。我們最近也推出了美國現金管理業務，我們將在今年年底提供有關為客戶和加拿大皇家銀行的資金狀況提供的價值的最新進展。

I will now speak to 2 areas of interest, namely our planned acquisition of HSBC Canada and the recent developments at City National Bank in the U.S. Starting on Slide 7. We are excited to have received approval from the Finance Minister, and we have targeted a March 28 close. Following this close, we expect our CET1 ratio to be approximately 12.5% by the end of the quarter. With this transaction, RBC will be better positioned to be the bank of choice for commercial clients with international needs, affluent clients needing wealth management capabilities and newcomers to Canada. Furthermore, we look to deepen existing client relationships and build new client relationships. We continue to expect approximately $740 million of expense synergies and given the nature of the concurrent financial and operational close and convert transaction, we expect nearly 25% of the expense synergies to be realized in the second half of 2024 and 60% by the end of year 1 of the transaction, largely related to shared service and IT systems. Given the timing of the close, we now expect nearly 80% of the cumulative expense synergies to be realized in 2025 with the remainder in the first half of 2026. We expect to provide further updates on the earnings power of the combined platform on our Q2 earnings call after the expected close.

我現在將談論兩個感興趣的領域，即我們計劃收購加拿大匯豐銀行以及美國城市國民銀行的最新發展（從幻燈片 7 開始）。我們很高興獲得財政部長的批准，我們的目標是3月28日截止。收盤後，我們預計到本季末我們的 CET1 比率將約為 12.5%。透過此交易，加拿大皇家銀行將能夠更好地成為有國際需求的商業客戶、需要財富管理能力的富裕客戶以及加拿大新移民的首選銀行。此外，我們希望加深現有的客戶關係並建立新的客戶關係。我們仍然預計將產生約7.4 億美元的費用協同效應，並且考慮到同時進行的財務和營運交割和轉換交易的性質，我們預計近25% 的費用協同效應將在2024 年下半年實現，到2024 年年底將實現60%交易的第一年，主要涉及共享服務和IT系統。鑑於交易完成的時間，我們現在預計近 80% 的累積費用協同效應將在 2025 年實現，其餘部分將在 2026 年上半年實現。我們預計將在第二季度提供有關合併平台盈利能力的進一步更新預期收盤後的財報電話會議。

On to Slide 8. City National has grown considerably since we acquired the bank in early 2016. One of our top priorities over the last couple of years has been to execute against extensive and detailed action plans, including investing in the appropriate risk and control infrastructure as well as new leadership. Looking forward, our focus at City National is to deliver a more normalized level of net income in 2025, including costs associated with an enhanced operational infrastructure. This includes optimizing its balance sheet to enhance spread, enhancing its funding profile, creating efficiencies and redeploying capital to focus on multiproduct clients.

前往幻燈片 8。自 2016 年初收購該銀行以來，City National 已取得了長足發展。過去幾年我們的首要任務之一是執行廣泛而詳細的行動計劃，包括投資適當的風險和控制基礎設施以及新的領導階層。展望未來，我們 City National 的重點是在 2025 年實現更正常化的淨利潤水平，包括與增強營運基礎設施相關的成本。這包括優化資產負債表以提高利差、改善融資狀況、提高效率以及重新部署資本以專注於多產品客戶。

To close, we've had a strong start to fiscal 2024 as we continue to execute on our client-focused strategies, including welcoming new clients and colleagues in a few weeks' time from the planned acquisition of HSBC Canada. Amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, our balance sheet remains strong. At the same time, our diversified revenue streams across businesses and geographies and prudent cost control position as well to continue driving a premium ROE and organic capital generation throughout the economic cycle. Nadine, over to you.

最後，我們在 2024 財年有了一個良好的開端，我們繼續執行以客戶為中心的策略，包括在計劃收購加拿大匯豐銀行後的幾週內歡迎新客戶和同事。在宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性的情況下，我們的資產負債表依然強勁。同時，我們跨業務和地理的多元化收入流以及審慎的成本控制地位，也將繼續推動整個經濟週期的優質股本回報率和有機資本生成。納丁，交給你了。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 10. We reported earnings per share of $2.50 this quarter, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.85 was down 6% from last year. Results benefited from higher rates, solid volume growth increased noninterest revenue and a lower effective tax rate. These tailwinds, however, were more than offset by higher expenses, including the cost of the FDIC special assessment. Increases in impaired PCL were also a headwind as provisions continue to trend upwards, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates and rising unemployment.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。從投影片 10 開始。我們報告本季每股收益為 2.50 美元，調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.85 美元，比去年下降 6%。業績得益於較高的稅率、穩定的銷售成長、非利息收入的增加以及較低的有效稅率。然而，這些有利因素被更高的費用所抵消，其中包括 FDIC 特別評估的費用。由於準備金持續呈上升趨勢，反映了利率上升和失業率上升的影響，PCL 受損的增加也是阻力。

I will first highlight the continued strength of our balance sheet easing on more detailed drivers of our earnings. Starting with our strong capital ratios on Slide 11. Our CET1 ratio improved to 14.9%, up 40 basis points from last quarter, mainly reflecting our strong internal capital generation net of dividend, unrealized gains on OCI securities and benefits of share issuances under the DRIP. This was partly offset by a modest impact from the net regulatory changes, including the impact of IFRS 17.

我首先將強調我們的資產負債表寬鬆政策對我們獲利的更詳細的驅動因素的持續影響。從幻燈片11 中我們強勁的資本比率開始。我們的CET1 比率提高至14.9%，比上季度上升40 個基點，主要反映了我們強勁的內部資本生成能力（扣除股息、OCI 證券的未實現收益以及DRIP 下股票發行的收益） 。這部分被淨監管變化（包括 IFRS 17 的影響）帶來的適度影響所抵消。

RWA growth, excluding FX, was largely flat this quarter. Higher RWA, primarily driven by operational risks from continued revenue growth as well as unfavorable wholesale credit migration was offset by lower market risk RWA and capital markets and net regulatory changes. Going forward, the close of the planned HSBC Canada transaction is expected to reduce the CET1 ratio by approximately 250 basis points. In light of our projected capital position, we have elected to cease the current 2% discount on our DRIP following the delivery of our February 23 dividend.

不包括外匯在內，本季 RWA 成長基本持平。較高的風險加權資產主要是由收入持續成長帶來的營運風險以及不利的批發信貸遷移所推動的，但卻被較低的市場風險風險加權資產和資本市場以及淨監管變化所抵消。展望未來，計劃中的加拿大匯豐銀行交易的完成預計將使 CET1 比率降低約 250 個基點。鑑於我們預期的資本狀況，我們選擇在 2 月 23 日派發股息後停止目前 DRIP 2% 的折扣。

Furthermore, we do not expect Basel III floors to be binding in 2024. The revenue and expense guidance provided in my remarks hereafter do not incorporate impact from the planned acquisition of HSBC Canada, which we'll provide updates on next quarter.

此外，我們預期巴塞爾協議 III 下限不會在 2024 年生效。我在下文中提供的收入和支出指引不包括計劃收購匯豐加拿大的影響，我們將在下季度提供最新情況。

Moving to Slide 12. All bank net interest income was up 2% year-over-year or largely flat, excluding trading revenue. These results benefited from solid volume growth in Canadian Banking partly offset by lower treasury services revenue in Capital Markets. On a sequential basis, all bank NIM, excluding trading revenue was down 7 basis points. The prior quarter included a favorable accounting adjustment in corporate support, which increased NII and lowered other income. This adjustment was reversed in the current quarter. Excluding this quarter-over-quarter adjustment, since Q3 2023, NIM, excluding trading revenue is up 5 basis points.

轉向投影片 12。所有銀行淨利息收入年增 2% 或基本持平（不包括交易收入）。這些業績得益於加拿大銀行業業務量的穩健成長，但部分被資本市場的財資服務收入下降所抵銷。從季來看，所有銀行的淨利差（不包括交易收入）下降了 7 個基點。上一季包括對企業支援的有利會計調整，這增加了NII並降低了其他收入。這一調整在本季度被逆轉。剔除本次環比調整後，自 2023 年第三季以來，扣除交易收入的淨利差 (NIM) 增加了 5 個基點。

Canadian Banking NIM was up 1 basis point from last quarter. As expected, the embedded advantages of our structural low-beta core personal banking deposit franchise continued to come through this quarter, underpinned by the latent benefit of recent interest rate hikes. We also continued to benefit from changes in asset mix, largely reflecting strong growth in credit card balances. These benefits were partly offset by intense competition for term deposits. Quarterly movements in Canadian banking NIM will be impacted by the continued benefit from our core deposit franchise as well as ongoing pricing competition for deposits. Furthermore, there is added uncertainty from the impact of other factors such as interest rate movements, the shape of the yield curve and changes in balance sheet mix.

加拿大銀行業淨利差較上季上升 1 個基點。正如預期的那樣，在近期加息的潛在好處的支撐下，我們的結構性低貝塔核心個人銀行存款業務的內在優勢在本季度繼續顯現。我們也繼續受益於資產結構的變化，這在很大程度上反映了信用卡餘額的強勁增長。這些好處在一定程度上被定期存款的激烈競爭所抵消。加拿大銀行業淨利差的季度變動將受到我們核心存款業務的持續收益以及持續的存款定價競爭的影響。此外，利率變動、殖利率曲線形狀和資產負債表結構變化等其他因素的影響也增加了不確定性。

Turning to City National. NIM was up 20 basis points from last quarter. The increase mainly reflected the full quarter benefit of last quarter's intercompany sale of certain City National debt securities, partly offsetting corporate support as well as lower levels of FHLB funding. Higher deposit pricing continued to be a headwind this quarter.

轉向國家城市。淨利差較上季上升 20 個基點。這一增長主要反映了上季度公司間出售某些城市國家債務證券的整個季度收益，部分抵消了企業支持以及 FHLB 資金水平的下降。較高的存款定價仍然是本季的阻力。

Moving to Slide 13. Noninterest expenses were up 10% from last year. Expenses were up 6% adjusting for acquisition and integration-related costs to HSBC Canada. Excluding the cost of the FDIC special assessment, as well as macro-driven factors such as FX and share-based compensation, core expense growth decelerated to 2% year-over-year, reflecting our ongoing focus on cost reduction. Core year-over-year expense growth was driven by higher base salaries, higher pension and benefits expenses and increased professional fees, including ongoing investments to enhance City National's operational infrastructure.

轉到投影片 13。非利息支出比去年增加了 10%。在調整加拿大匯豐銀行的收購和整合相關成本後，費用上漲了 6%。剔除 FDIC 特別評估的成本，以及外匯和股票薪酬等宏觀驅動因素，核心費用年增率放緩至 2%，反映出我們對降低成本的持續關注。核心費用年增率是由基本工資提高、退休金和福利費用增加以及專業費用增加所推動的，其中包括為增強城市國家運營基礎設施而進行的持續投資。

Looking forward, we continue to expect all bank core expense growth to come in the low to mid-single-digit range in 2024 with revenue-related expenses such as variable compensation fluctuating within this range commensurate with market activity levels.

展望未來，我們繼續預期 2024 年所有銀行核心費用成長將在中低個位數範圍內，可變薪酬等與收入相關的費用將在此範圍內波動，與市場活動水準相稱。

Results this quarter benefited from a lower adjusted effective tax rate of 18.3%, which was down 180 basis points from last year, reflecting favorable changes in earnings mix. Looking forward, we expect the non-TEB effective tax rate to be in the 19% to 21% range for the remainder of the year.

本季業績受惠於調整後有效稅率降低至 18.3%，較去年下降 180 個基點，反映出獲利組合的有利變化。展望未來，我們預計今年剩餘時間內非 TEB 有效稅率將在 19% 至 21% 的範圍內。

Moving to our segment performance, beginning on Slide 14. Personal & Commercial Banking reported earnings of $2.1 billion. Canadian Banking pre-provision pretax earnings were up 4% year-over-year. Canadian Banking net interest income was up 5% from last year, mainly reflecting solid volume growth. Noninterest income was up 4% year-over-year as higher client activity contributed to increased service revenue and credit fees. Operating leverage was negative 1% for the quarter, partly reflecting higher marketing costs associated with new client acquisition campaigns. For the full year, we now expect Canadian Banking operating leverage to come at the higher end of our historical 1% to 2% target.

轉向我們的部門業績，從幻燈片 14 開始。個人和商業銀行報告獲利 21 億美元。加拿大銀行業撥備前稅前盈餘較去年同期成長 4%。加拿大銀行業的淨利息收入比去年增長了 5%，主要反映了業務量的穩健增長。由於客戶活動增加導致服務收入和信貸費用增加，非利息收入年增 4%。本季營運槓桿率為負 1%，部分反映了與新客戶獲取活動相關的行銷成本上升。就全年而言，我們現在預計加拿大銀行業的營運槓桿將達到我們 1% 至 2% 歷史目標的較高端。

Turning to Slide 15. Wealth Management earnings were down 27% from last year, including the $150 million after-tax cost of the FDIC special assessment incurred in the quarter. The segment was also impacted by the partial sale of RBC Investor Services operations. The underlying performance of our wealth management advisory and asset management business benefited from higher fee-based client assets across each of our businesses, largely reflecting the benefit from market appreciation and net sales.

轉向幻燈片 15。財富管理收益比去年下降 27%，其中包括本季度 FDIC 特別評估產生的 1.5 億美元稅後成本。該部門也受到加拿大皇家銀行投資者服務業務部分出售的影響。我們的財富管理諮詢和資產管理業務的基本績效受益於我們每項業務的收費客戶資產的增加，這在很大程度上反映了市場升值和淨銷售額的收益。

Higher transactional revenue in Canadian Wealth Management and stronger RBC GAM performance fees also contributed. These factors were partly offset by lower net interest income in our Wealth Management businesses reflecting lower deposit volumes and spreads as well as lower sweep deposit revenue in U.S. wealth management. The segment efficiency ratio increased to 83%, largely due to higher expenses at City National including the cost of the FDIC special assessment and the ongoing investments in its operational infrastructure.

加拿大財富管理公司交易收入的增加和 RBC GAM 績效費用的增加也做出了貢獻。這些因素在一定程度上被我們財富管理業務的淨利息收入下降所抵消，反映出存款量和利差下降以及美國財富管理的掃款存款收入下降。部門效率提高至 83%，這主要是由於 City National 的費用增加，包括 FDIC 特別評估的成本以及對其營運基礎設施的持續投資。

Turning to Slide 16. Capital Markets results were robust this quarter and generated pre-provision pretax earnings of $1.3 billion, which more than offset the impact of higher PCL. Corporate and Investment Banking revenue was up 3% from last year due to higher securitization financing revenue, improved margins in our Transaction Banking business and higher M&A activity across most regions. Global Markets revenue was down 8% from a strong prior year, which benefited from more favorable market conditions and stronger client activity and equity trading.

轉向投影片 16。本季資本市場業績強勁，撥備前稅前盈餘達到 13 億美元，足以抵銷 PCL 較高的影響。由於證券化融資收入增加、交易銀行業務利潤率提高以及大多數地區併購活動增加，企業和投資銀行收入較去年增長 3%。全球市場收入較去年強勁下降 8%，這得益於更有利的市場條件以及更強勁的客戶活動和股票交易。

Turning to Insurance on Slide 17. This quarter, we adopted the IFRS 17 accounting standard. Net income was $220 million, driven by favorable investment performance as we repositioned our portfolio for the transition to IFRS 17. The current period also benefited from favorable market conditions. It is important to note that the results in the prior period are not fully comparable as we were not managing our asset and liability portfolios under IFRS 17. Going forward, we anticipate net insurance service result will be more stable under IFRS 17. However, we do know that net investment result was outsized this quarter and do not expect that magnitude of performance to persist. We anticipate net income growth to be mid-single digits in 2024 off of restated 2023 IFRS 17 level.

轉向投影片 17 上的保險。本季度，我們採用了 IFRS 17 會計準則。淨利潤為 2.2 億美元，得益於我們為向 IFRS 17 過渡而重新定位投資組合而取得的良好投資業績。本期也受益於有利的市場條件。值得注意的是，上期業績不完全可比，因為我們沒有根據 IFRS 17 管理我們的資產和負債組合。展望未來，我們預計 IFRS 17 下的淨保險服務業績將更加穩定。但是，我們我們確實知道本季度的淨投資結果過大，但預計這種規模的績效不會持續下去。我們預計 2024 年淨利成長將在重述的 2023 年 IFRS 17 水準的基礎上達到中個位數。

To conclude, we generated a mid-teen ROE while holding excess capital related to the planned acquisition of HSBC Canada. Our strong results were underpinned by the depth of our leading Canadian deposit franchise and the strong positioning of our wealth management and capital markets franchises. Our ongoing progress on cost containment was another key contributor to our performance this quarter.

總而言之，我們在持有與計劃收購加拿大匯豐銀行相關的過剩資本的同時，實現了 15 左右的 ROE。我們強勁的業績得益於我們領先的加拿大存款業務的深度以及我們財富管理和資本市場業務的強大定位。我們在成本控制方面的持續進展是我們本季業績的另一個關鍵因素。

With that, I'll turn it over to Graeme.

有了這個，我會把它交給格雷姆。

Thank you, Nadine, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 19, I'll discuss our allowances in the context of the macroeconomic environment. As Dave outlined earlier, the market continues to gain confidence that interest rates have peaked to the current cycle the probability of a hard landing for the economy is decreasing. Notwithstanding an improving macroeconomic outlook, we continue to see credit outcomes deteriorating as the lagging impact of interest rate increases takes hold from our clients.

謝謝你，納丁，大家早安。從幻燈片 19 開始，我將在宏觀經濟環境的背景下討論我們的津貼。正如戴夫之前概述的那樣，市場繼續相信，當前週期利率已見頂，經濟硬著陸的可能性正在下降。儘管宏觀經濟前景有所改善，但由於升息的滯後影響對我們的客戶產生影響，我們繼續看到信貸結果惡化。

In our retail portfolio, delinquencies and insolvencies and impairments continue to increase, with delinquencies and impairments above pre-pandemic levels. In our wholesale portfolio, we continue to see growth in watch list exposure, net credit downgrades and more names being transferred to our special loans team. As a result, and as Dave noted earlier, we added $133 million of provisions on performing loans this quarter. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter where we added reserves on performing loans, translating into a $1.2 billion or 37% increase in our ACL on performing loans over this period.

在我們的零售投資組合中，拖欠、破產和減損持續增加，拖欠和減損高於疫情前的水準。在我們的批發投資組合中，我們繼續看到觀察名單曝光、淨信用降級以及更多名稱被轉移到我們的特別貸款團隊的成長。因此，正如戴夫之前指出的，我們在本季增加了 1.33 億美元的貸款撥備。這標誌著我們連續第七個季度增加不良貸款準備金，這意味著在此期間我們的不良貸款 ACL 增加了 12 億美元，即 37%。

Our provision on performing loans have been consistent with the expected outcomes of the traditional credit cycle. When we started adding reserves in the second half of 2022, provisions were largely driven by a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, while credit performance remained strong. Through 2023, reserve additions reflected further deterioration in macroeconomic signals and to a lesser extent, deteriorating credit performance as clients start to feel the impact of higher rates and slow economic growth.

我們的履約貸款撥備與傳統信用週期的預期結果一致。當我們在 2022 年下半年開始增加準備金時，準備金主要是由宏觀經濟前景惡化所推動的，而信貸表現仍然強勁。到2023年，準備金增加反映了宏觀經濟訊號的進一步惡化，並在較小程度上反映了信貸表現的惡化，因為客戶開始感受到利率上升和經濟成長緩慢的影響。

This quarter, improving macroeconomic outlook drove releases of provisions. However, these were more than offset by reserve additions for deteriorating credit performance. This quarter's provisions on performing loans were primarily in Canadian Banking, driven by increasing delinquencies and a lower Canadian housing price forecast, partially offset by a [recent] release in wealth management, reflecting the strength in the U.S. macroeconomic outlook. As Dave highlighted earlier, we remain prudently provisioned noting our total ACL loans of $5.6 billion with over 2.5x our PCL on impaired loans over the last 12 months.

本季度，宏觀經濟前景改善推動撥備發放。然而，這些都被因信貸表現惡化而增加的準備金所抵消。本季的不良貸款準備金主要集中在加拿大銀行業，原因是拖欠率增加和加拿大房價預測下降，但部分被財富管理發布的數據所抵消，反映出美國宏觀經濟前景的強勁。正如戴夫之前強調的那樣，我們仍然謹慎地撥備撥備，並注意到過去 12 個月我們的 ACL 貸款總額為 56 億美元，其中減值貸款的 PCL 超過 2.5 倍。

Moving to Slide 20. Provisions on impaired loans were up $146 million or 6 basis points relative to last quarter, with higher provisions in Canadian Banking and Capital Markets. In our Canadian Banking commercial portfolio, PCL on impaired loans of 45 basis points increased by 20 basis points compared to last quarter and was upon pre-pandemic levels. This quarter, we took a large provision of the loan in the automotive sector or has been impacted by lower demand for trucking post-pandemic.

轉向投影片 20。減損貸款撥備比上季增加 1.46 億美元，即 6 個基點，其中加拿大銀行業和資本市場的撥備增加。在我們的加拿大銀行商業投資組合中，減損貸款的 PCL 為 45 個基點，與上季相比增加了 20 個基點，達到了疫情前的水平。本季度，我們在汽車行業獲得了大量貸款，或受到疫情後卡車運輸需求下降的影響。

In our Canadian Banking retail portfolio, provisions on impaired loans were higher across all products, led by credit cards. The increases in unemployment rates we observed in 2023 and the impact of higher interest rates are now translating into losses. The Canadian Banking retail Stage 3 PCL ratio of 29 basis points has largely returned to our average historical loss rate of 30 basis points. In Capital Markets and Wealth Management, over 80% of our PCL on impaired loans this quarter was in the commercial real estate sector, which I'll discuss further in a moment.

在我們的加拿大銀行零售投資組合中，所有產品的減損貸款撥備都較高，其中以信用卡為首。我們在 2023 年觀察到的失業率上升以及利率上升的影響現在正在轉化為損失。加拿大銀行業零售第三階段 PCL 比率為 29 個基點，已基本恢復到我們 30 個基點的平均歷史損失率。在資本市場和財富管理方面，本季超過 80% 的 PCL 減損貸款來自商業房地產領域，我稍後將進一步討論這一領域。

Moving to Slide 21. Gross impaired loans were up $494 million or 6 basis points this quarter. Our GIL ratio of 48 basis points is now slightly above pre-pandemic levels. New formations were also higher this quarter, primarily in Canadian Banking. In our retail portfolio, new formations were higher across all products, consistent with the trends we've observed in delinquencies and insolvencies. In our wholesale portfolio, higher new formations were driven by the impairment of the loan in the automotive sector that I noted earlier as well as hire new formations in the commercial real estate sector.

轉到投影片 21。本季總減損貸款增加了 4.94 億美元，即 6 個基點。我們的 GIL 比率目前為 48 個基點，略高於大流行前的水平。本季新成立的公司數量也有所增加，主要是在加拿大銀行業。在我們的零售投資組合中，所有產品的新形成都較高，這與我們在拖欠和破產方面觀察到的趨勢一致。在我們的批發投資組合中，更高的新結構是由我之前提到的汽車行業貸款減損以及商業房地產行業僱用新結構所推動的。

Given ongoing headwinds in commercial real estate as well as the impairments and provisions we took in this sector this quarter, we provided some context on our exposure on Slide 22. Our commercial real estate exposure represents less than 10% of our total loans and acceptances has originated to sound lending standards. Following a prolonged period of strength in the sector, we have seen impairments and losses increased as part of the current rate hiking cycle in Q3 of 2022. However, these higher formations and losses have been consistent with our expectations and well within our risk appetite.

鑑於商業房地產領域持續的不利因素以及本季度我們在該領域採取的減值和撥備，我們在幻燈片22 上提供了有關我們風險敞口的一些背景信息。我們的商業房地產風險敞口占我們貸款且承兌匯票總額的不到10%源自於健全的貸款標準。在該行業長期走強之後，我們看到，作為2022 年第三季度當前加息週期的一部分，減值和損失有所增加。然而，這些較高的形成和損失與我們的預期一致，並且完全在我們的風險偏好範圍內。

Since the start of the rate hiking cycle, our cumulative new formations of impaired loans in the sector represent less than 0.2% of our total loans and acceptances. And our cumulative PCL and impaired loans represents just 1% of our pre-provision pretax earnings, demonstrating the benefit and strength of our diversified business model. Additionally, we have been prudently and consistently increasing our allowances for the credit losses in the sector. Our downside provisioning service account for a reduction in commercial real estate prices of 25% to 40%. As a result, our ACL ratio on performing commercial real estate loans is approximately 3x higher than pre-pandemic levels, and our reserves are significantly higher in the U.S. where we've seen a large majority of impairments and losses to date.

自升息週期開始以來，我們該產業累計新形成的減損貸款佔貸款和承兌匯票總額的比例不到0.2%。我們累積的 PCL 和減損貸款僅占我們撥備前稅前收益的 1%，證明了我們多元化業務模式的優勢和優勢。此外，我們一直審慎、持續增加對該行業信貸損失的準備金。我們的下行撥備服務使商業房地產價格下降了 25% 至 40%。因此，我們執行商業房地產貸款的 ACL 比率比疫情前的水平高出約 3 倍，而且我們在美國的準備金明顯更高，迄今為止，我們在美國已經看到了大部分減損和損失。

To conclude, while credit performance was weaker this quarter, it has trended in line with the guidance I provided last quarter. We continue to prudently build reserves on performing loans, while provisions on impaired loans of 31 basis points of return historical averages. Moving forward, credit outcomes will continue to be dependent on the magnitude of changes in unemployment rates, the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates and residential and commercial real estate prices. As always, we continue to proactively manage risk through the cycle, and we remain well capitalized to stand plausible yet more severe macroeconomic outcomes.

總而言之，雖然本季信貸表現較弱，但其趨勢與我上季度提供的指導一致。我們持續審慎地建立不良貸款準備金，同時以歷史平均報酬率31個基點提列減損貸款撥備。展望未來，信貸結果將繼續取決於失業率變化的幅度、利率以及住宅和商業房地產價格變化的方向和幅度。一如既往，我們繼續在整個週期中主動管理風險，並且我們仍然擁有充足的資本來應對看似合理但更嚴峻的宏觀經濟結果。

And with that, operator, let's open the lines for Q&A.

那麼，接線員，讓我們開始問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Meny Grauman from Scotiabank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Meny Grauman。

Just maybe a question for Graeme to start off. Just in terms of impaired PCL ratio, came in higher than expected. We're seeing that trend at some peers as well. It looks like definitely there's more stress in the unsecured book across the sector. From your commentary, it sounded like it's basically in line with your expectations, but I wanted to clarify that if there is anything that you're seeing that is different than what you would have expected when you spoke to us in Q4?

也許這只是格雷姆首先要問的問題。僅就 PCL 受損比率而言，就高於預期。我們在一些同行中也看到了這種趨勢。看起來整個行業的無擔保帳簿肯定面臨更大的壓力。從您的評論來看，這聽起來基本上符合您的期望，但我想澄清一下，您所看到的是否有任何與您在第四季度與我們交談時所期望的不同？

Yes. Thanks, Meny, for the question. In terms of what we saw kind of play out this quarter, maybe I always divide it kind of into wholesale and retail. On the wholesale, this quarter, we probably run the elevated side of what we were expecting in the quarter, but wholesale tends to be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. We had 3 specific names 2 in the commercial real estate sector and 1 in the automotive where we took fairly significant reserves. So those 3 names themselves accounted for quite a significant pickup in the quarter-on-quarter Stage 3 PCL. We expect wholesale will kind of continue at more elevated levels, but that probably doesn't persist at this level quarter-to-quarter.

是的。謝謝梅尼提出的問題。就我們本季看到的情況而言，也許我總是將其分為批發和零售。在批發方面，本季我們的業績可能會高於我們對本季的預期，但批發往往會按季度波動。我們有 3 個具體名稱，其中 2 個在商業房地產領域，1 個在汽車領域，我們在這方面擁有相當大的儲備。因此，這 3 個名字本身在第 3 階段 PCL 季度環比中的貢獻相當大。我們預計批發量將繼續保持在更高的水平，但這可能不會按季度持續保持在這個水平。

On the retail side, again, it was pretty broad-based. I think we'd indicated in previous meetings that we do expect retail to tick up through the year, and we saw that kind of coming in play this quarter. Much of what we saw pull through is what was happening in 2023, the rising rate environment and some of the increase in unemployment was now flowing through into the retail side as well as the insolvencies were ticking up. And so that is playing out in products like we expected, like cards and to a lesser extent, but it is starting to flow through into products like mortgage as well. So in aggregate, probably a little bit on the higher side than we would have planned for. But I think in the aggregate from what we're expecting in 2024, reasonably in line.

在零售方面，同樣，它的基礎相當廣泛。我認為我們在先前的會議中曾表示，我們確實預計今年零售業將有所成長，並且我們在本季度看到了這種情況的表現。我們看到的大部分情況都是 2023 年發生的情況，利率上升的環境和失業率的部分增加現在正在流入零售業，而且破產率也在上升。因此，這種情況正在像我們預期的那樣在信用卡等產品中發揮作用，但它也開始滲透到抵押貸款等產品中。因此總的來說，可能比我們計劃的要高一些。但我認為總體而言，與我們對 2024 年的預期相當一致。

And just TransUnion recently published a report highlighting fraud as being particularly -- as being a particularly big issue in Canada. I'm wondering how much of a driver is fraud in your impaired performance? Do you see that as a big issue or growing issue maybe?

TransUnion 最近發布了一份報告，強調詐欺在加拿大是一個特別大的問題。我想知道你的駕駛表現有多少是詐欺行為？您認為這是一個大問題還是一個日益嚴重的問題？

From a PCL perspective, these would be fairly clear credit numbers, not fraud numbers, if you will. Certainly, fraud is a risk factor that we're very focused on, and we invest a lot to mitigate those risks to the bank but that wouldn't be worth showing up in PCL, no.

從 PCL 的角度來看，如果您願意的話，這些將是相當清晰的信用號碼，而不是詐騙號碼。當然，詐欺是我們非常關注的風險因素，我們投入了大量資金來減輕銀行的這些風險，但這不值得出現在 PCL 中，不。

And then finally, just in terms of...

最後，就...而言

Maybe we'll go to someone else's questions. Can you requeue?

也許我們會去回答別人的問題。可以重新排隊嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Our following question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

我們的以下問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe just Graeme speaking with your own credit, you mentioned 2 things around PCL being sensitive to the outlook for unemployment rate. Tell us what you're assuming, even looking out into '25 where you think unemployment rate goes higher or lower in '25? And then just the importance of the yield cost staying where it is, does a 5-year at 3.5% plus still create pressure on PCLs and impaired PCLs as we look into next year?

我想也許只是格雷姆用你自己的信用說話，你提到了關於 PCL 對失業率前景敏感的兩件事。告訴我們您的假設是什麼，甚至展望 25 年，您認為 25 年失業率會更高或更低？然後，考慮到收益率成本保持不變的重要性，當我們展望明年時，3.5％以上的 5 年期利率是否仍然會對 PCL 和受損的 PCL 造成壓力？

Yes. Thanks, Ebrahim. I think as we look forward, I think you hit on some of the key variables. I think some of the key drivers that we're focused on and that will try kind of our view of how the credit losses will play out in the coming year and into 2025, really are, as you said, the trajectory of unemployment kind of the trajectory of rates. And I would maybe add to kind of the third big 1 into that is valuations, particularly around HPI and commercial real estate prices. Our current kind of forecast, say, on unemployment is we have that ticking up fairly significantly from where we are now to about 6.6% midyear 2024. That's we'll see if that plays out like that, certainly in kind of recent months here, unemployment in Canada has kind of proven to be a little bit more resilient than we had anticipated.

是的。謝謝，易卜拉欣。我認為，當我們展望未來時，我認為您發現了一些關鍵變數。我認為我們關注的一些關鍵驅動因素將嘗試我們對未來一年和 2025 年信貸損失將如何發揮的看法，正如您所說，失業的軌跡確實是利率的軌跡。我可能會補充第三大因素是估值，特別是圍繞 HPI 和商業房地產價格。例如，我們目前對失業率的預測是，到 2024 年年中，失業率將從現在的水平大幅上升至 6.6% 左右。我們將看看情況是否會像這樣發展，當然在最近幾個月，事實證明，加拿大的失業率比我們預期的更有彈性。

But then that's how that plays out in PCL, when you think about something like employment, there's a lag factor that comes on the back of that. And so that's kind of the kind of keep the pressure of interest rates and the refinancing cycle that will play out. Certainly on the retail side, we do expect that Stage 3 credit losses will kind of continue to build and kind of peak out more as we get into the latter half of 2024 into the earlier half of 2025. Again, on the wholesale side, we're seeing some of the benefit of rates may be coming into play earlier that maybe plays out a bit sooner, particularly on the large corporate side. We've been running at more elevated kind of Stage 3 losses there.

但這就是 PCL 中的情況，當你考慮就業之類的事情時，就會出現一個滯後因素。因此，這就是一種持續的利率壓力和將要發生的再融資週期。當然，在零售方面，我們確實預計，隨著 2024 年下半年到 2025 年上半年，第三階段信貸損失將繼續增加，並達到峰值。同樣，在批發方面，我們我們看到利率的一些好處可能會更早發揮作用，而且可能會更早發揮作用，特別是在大企業方面。我們在那裡的第三階段損失更高。

So I don't say we would trend that the same way. But on the wholesale side, on the smaller side, say under that, small business under $10 million commercial is where we would expect to see kind of similar pressures and similar building overall. So that's kind of the total picture there, Ebrahim. Again, I think you hit some of the key factors in terms of how we see them and kind of the time line of how we see that playing out a little bit.

所以我並不是說我們會以同樣的方式發展趨勢。但在批發方面，在較小的方面，比如說，商業價值低於 1000 萬美元的小型企業，我們預計會看到類似的壓力和類似的整體建築。這就是整體情況，易卜拉欣。再說一次，我認為你觸及了我們如何看待它們的一些關鍵因素，以及我們如何看待這一點發揮作用的時間線。

Got it. And as a follow-up, maybe, Dave, for you, it looks like CNB is back on track in terms of the actions you've outlined and what you've already done. Just give us a sense of, I think in January, you talked about appetite for wealth management, commercial M&A in the U.S. Just where we are in terms of growth strategy. There's a lot of disruption going in the U.S. across capital markets well -- just are we playing offense, what the thought process there is?

知道了。作為後續行動，戴夫，對於您來說，就您概述的行動和已經完成的工作而言，CNB 似乎已經回到正軌。請讓我們了解一下，我想在一月份，您談到了美國對財富管理和商業併購的興趣。就成長策略而言，我們所處的位置。美國的資本市場發生了很多混亂──我們只是在進攻，思考過程是怎麼樣的？

Yes, certainly, I think our focus is on profitability. At City National, I think there's a real opportunity for us to continue to operate this business and build this business out and make more money doing it even with the existing balance sheet. We'll continue to talk about that. I think they continue to grow sustainably in the U.S., you need deposits. So our focus is on growing deposits. We have an 85% loan-to-deposit ratio, which is good. But to continue to grow, we want to maintain that and lower that if we can.

是的，當然，我認為我們的重點是獲利能力。在城市國家，我認為我們有一個真正的機會繼續經營這項業務，擴大這項業務，即使在現有的資產負債表上也能賺更多的錢。我們將繼續討論這一點。我認為它們在美國繼續可持續增長，你需要存款。因此，我們的重點是增加存款。我們的貸存比為 85%，這很好。但為了繼續成長，我們希望保持這一水平，並盡可能降低這一水平。

So it's very much -- from a product perspective, push perspective, you'll see good deposit growth, which will add to profitability. We are well positioned with our wealth management franchise to capture the move out of treasury bills into equities into investments. So I think our very strong wealth platform will capture that flow business as well as continuing to grow our adviser base. So we're still adding teams. We're still being very successful in growth and productivity per adviser expanding the product line within the wealth platform.

所以，從產品的角度、推動的角度來看，你會看到良好的存款成長，這將增加獲利能力。我們憑藉我們的財富管理特許經營權處於有利位置，可以抓住從國庫券到股票再到投資的轉變。因此，我認為我們非常強大的財富平台將抓住流動業務，並繼續擴大我們的顧問基礎。所以我們仍在增加團隊。我們在財富平台內擴展產品線方面，在每位顧問的成長和生產力方面仍然非常成功。

All those are strong growth drivers for us. And on the capital markets side, we continue to enhance our team, grow our team compete very well. You saw the market share we gained on a fee basis up to 8% in Q1. So very, very strong organic opportunities to grow very strong profitability enhancements that will be a nice tailwind for us that we're happy about.

所有這些都是我們強勁的成長動力。而在資本市場方面，我們不斷增強我們的團隊，讓我們的團隊變得非常有競爭力。您看到我們在第一季按收費獲得的市佔率高達 8%。因此，非常非常強大的有機機會可以增強盈利能力，這對我們來說將是一個很好的推動力，我們對此感到高興。

And as it comes to M&A to the last part of your question, we are continuing to think through how do we scale each of our franchises, notwithstanding we were very unlikely to make an acquisition in the capital market space. But as I said before, really focused on the wealth space and the commercial space over time. Nothing imminent. Obviously, we're focused on profitability and strengthening our platform.

至於你問題的最後一部分的併購，我們正在繼續思考如何擴展我們的每個特許經營權，儘管我們不太可能在資本市場領域進行收購。但正如我之前所說，隨著時間的推移，真正關注的是財富空間和商業空間。沒有什麼迫在眉睫的事情。顯然，我們專注於盈利能力和加強我們的平台。

But we continue to think through that space. We rebuilt our capital from HSBC acquisition, which we gave you some more color on this morning. And therefore, we think we're well positioned to continue to grow our U.S. franchise from a scale and profitability perspective. So no change in strategy and always kind of focused on what's the right play over time, but nothing imminent as well.

但我們繼續思考這個空間。我們透過收購匯豐銀行重建了我們的資本，今天早上我們給了你們更多的資訊。因此，我們認為從規模和獲利能力的角度來看，我們有能力繼續發展我們的美國特許經營權。因此，策略沒有改變，隨著時間的推移，總是專注於什麼是正確的策略，但也沒有什麼迫在眉睫的事情。

Our following question is from Doug Young from Desjardins Capital Markets.

我們的以下問題來自 Desjardins Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

Just on your Slide 7, HSBC Canada, obviously, you look at Q4 results for that business and did deteriorate a bit. And just trying to see if -- it doesn't look like your accretion or cost synergy expectations has changed. I know you're going to get more of an update with Q2, but just talk a bit why you're still confident with that? And then on the integration time line, thanks for this. Figured the expense reductions would be more I guess, would be faster, given it's an end market, lots of overlap. Just I'm wondering if there's anything I should be thinking about or anything I'm missing on that front?

顯然，就在您的投影片 7 上，加拿大匯豐銀行，您查看了該業務第四季度的業績，確實有所惡化。只是想看看您的成長或成本協同預期是否發生了變化。我知道您會在第二季度獲得更多更新，但請談談為什麼您對此仍然有信心？然後是關於整合時間線，謝謝。我想，考慮到這是一個終端市場，有很多重疊，費用削減會更多、更快。只是我想知道在這方面是否有什麼我應該考慮的事情或我遺漏了什麼？

Thanks for the question, Doug. It's Neil. Yes, in terms of the cost synergies, we still remain really confident in terms of the $740 million of cost synergies. The closing convert is part of why we have so much confidence around it. The first synergies that will come out will really be technology-related. So those will be towards the front end. In terms of the timing, the timing delay is we really haven't really, I'd say, changed the sort of the calendar timing of when the cumulative cost synergies will roll in. It's really from the delay we had in terms of regulatory approval and then having to slide back that closing convert date. So that's really the driver of the timing.

謝謝你的提問，道格。是尼爾.是的，就成本綜效而言，我們仍然對 7.4 億美元的成本綜效充滿信心。最終的轉換是我們對此充滿信心的部分原因。第一個出現的協同效應將真正與技術相關。所以這些都會是面向前端的。就時間而言，時間延遲是我們真的沒有真正改變累積成本協同效應何時出現的日曆時間。這實際上是由於我們在監管方面的延遲批准，然後必須推遲截止轉換日期。所以這確實是時機的驅動因素。

Okay. And then if I could just follow up, Dave, on City National, it was obviously profitable excluding FDIC charges, I think it was $88 million. The NIM was up. I know you're investing a lot. You've got a new management team in place. Can you talk about the time line? I think you talked in your prepared remarks about a normalized net income in 2025. Can you talk about the time line about some of -- I guess, like in terms of how you get back to profitability or appropriate profitability? And what is that appropriate profitability for City National?

好的。然後，戴夫，如果我能跟進 City National，它顯然是有利可圖的，不包括 FDIC 費用，我認為它是 8800 萬美元。 NIM 起來了。我知道你投資很多。你們已經有了一個新的管理團隊。能談談時間軸嗎？我認為您在準備好的發言中談到了 2025 年淨利潤正常化的問題。您能否談談一些時間線——我猜，例如如何恢復盈利或適當的盈利能力？對城市國家來說，合適的獲利能力是多少？

We'll go through kind of our targets later on the year as far as each of our businesses and their potential. But for us there, we do believe that City National is that it's kind of full run rate this year to complete its platform build-out and we'll continue that through the year. And then as you come through 2025, we expect that to start to moderate and create some tailwinds for P&L.

我們將在今年稍後討論我們的每項業務及其潛力的目標。但對我們來說，我們確實相信 City National 今年將全力完成其平台建設，我們將在今年繼續這樣做。然後，隨著 2025 年的到來，我們預計這種情況將開始放緩，並為損益表創造一些有利因素。

So as we come through that year, there are other areas where we're taking out costs in the platform to accommodate profitability growth, we have repositioning, as I said in my prepared comments, of the balance sheet around more multiproduct clients and getting a better ROE out of our existing balance sheet as well, which I think you've seen me create the analogy with capital markets. We had a very rapid growth in 2013 to 2016. We've spent a lot of time extracting more return out of that balance sheet.

因此，當我們度過這一年時，我們在平台的其他領域削減了成本，以適應盈利能力的增長，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們圍繞更多的多產品客戶重新定位了資產負債表，並獲得了我們現有的資產負債表也有更好的淨資產收益率，我想你已經看到我與資本市場進行了類比。 2013 年至 2016 年，我們的成長非常迅速。我們花了很多時間從資產負債表中獲得更多回報。

We're doing something very similar now in CNB given a 2.5-fold increase was so quick. We're not getting the return we want in all our client franchise there so we're focused on that. So that enhancement, you saw the securities that higher-yielding securities that we're able to put on the balance sheet has helped as well. So all of that, as we look at our trajectory, gives us the confidence that we're getting going to get back to a more normalized ROE in '25 and a tailwind from there. So we'll provide kind of more of a waterfall to that. But when we look at our cost trajectory, revenue opportunities, repositioning of assets, we feel confident of generating strong returns out of this business again in 2025.

鑑於 2.5 倍的成長速度如此之快，我們現在在 CNB 正在做一些非常類似的事情。我們沒有在所有客戶特許經營中獲得我們想要的回報，因此我們專注於此。因此，這種增強，您看到我們能夠放在資產負債表上的高收益證券也有所幫助。因此，當我們審視我們的發展軌跡時，所有這些都讓我們充滿信心，我們將在 25 年恢復到更正常化的 ROE，並從此順風順水。所以我們將為此提供更多的瀑布。但當我們審視我們的成本軌跡、收入機會、資產重新定位時，我們有信心在 2025 年再次從這項業務中獲得強勁回報。

The following question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

以下問題來自國家銀行金融部門的 Gabriel Dechaine。

First question on the RWA output floor. My math agrees with yours that it won't become -- hit you until 2025. How do you plan for that eventuality? Do you just eat it? Do you go after more standardized? Do you incur balance sheet growth or debanking customers, something along those lines? And then my second question is for Doug, the wealth business, the non-CNB stuff that is. I'm looking at what's going on in the U.K. and one of your peers there is facing some difficulties cutting the dividend and refunding customers and regulatory scrutiny is an issue. Wondering what, if any, impact there has been on your business? You've acquired BlueBay and Brewin Dolphin over the past years? And is there any reason for me to be thinking about that as a potential top line hit or cost hit, something like that?

關於 RWA 輸出層的第一個問題。我的數學計算與你的一致，即直到 2025 年它才會對你產生影響。你如何計劃應對這種可能性？你只吃它嗎？您追求更加標準化嗎？您是否會導致資產負債表成長或客戶銀行業務減少等類似情況？我的第二個問題是問道格的，財富業務，即非 CNB 業務。我正在關注英國正在發生的事情，你的一位同行在削減股息和向客戶退款方面面臨一些困難，監管審查也是一個問題。想知道這對您的業務有何影響（如果有）？您在過去幾年收購了 BlueeBay 和 Brewin Dolphin？我是否有任何理由將其視為潛在的頂線打擊或成本打擊之類的事情？

Well, thanks, Gabe. I'll start off with the first question around the floor. It is something that we do closely monitor. I think with every 2.5% increase, you do see a buffer drop by about $20 billion. But we've done about over $30 billion of optimization since 2023. And when I talk about optimization, what we're really focused on is around the data cleanup because a lot of what you see as it relates to some differential between standardized and ARB comes in, in part as it relates to getting better clarity on data, whether you're on collateral or when you're looking at rated companies, et cetera.

嗯，謝謝，加布。我將從第一個問題開始。這是我們密切關注的事情。我認為每增加 2.5%，您將看到緩衝減少約 200 億美元。但自 2023 年以來，我們已經完成了超過 300 億美元的優化。當我談論優化時，我們真正關注的是資料清理，因為您看到的許多內容都與標準化和 ARB 之間的一些差異有關之所以出現，部分原因是它與提高數據清晰度有關，無論您是使用抵押品還是在查看評級公司等。

So we continue to think that we've got more optimization as it relates to that going into 2025 to help benefit and create some room. But we do recognize the fact that it will become binding at a point as it relates to and you just have to continue to manage your optimization across your balance sheet, ensuring that you're profiling your capital out to those business segments to generate where our focus on is really on our strong ROE.

因此，我們仍然認為我們已經進行了更多優化，因為這與進入 2025 年有關，以幫助受益並創造一些空間。但我們確實認識到這樣一個事實，即它在某個時刻將變得具有約束力，因為它涉及到，您只需繼續管理整個資產負債表的優化，確保您將資本分配到這些業務部門，以產生我們的重點確實是我們強大的 ROE。

Can you probably do worth more a fulsome discussion offline anyhow wealth?

無論如何，你能在線下進行更豐富的討論嗎？

Yes. Hopefully, you won't need a more fulsome discussion on this. It's pretty -- so you're talking about the consumer duty focus in the U.K., which is similar to many jurisdictions where regulators over time have taken a higher interest and making sure that customers are treated fairly. And competitor you're pointing to is a very decentralized model. They have fee scales that were very diverse across customer bases and they're having to adjust because of that. We don't have that. What we liked about Brewin Dolphin, frankly, is the direction of travel for the business model is one that fits with the consumer duty. It's very much advice-focused, planning focused with the client.

是的。希望您不需要對此進行更充分的討論。這很漂亮——所以你談論的是英國的消費者責任焦點，這與許多司法管轄區類似，隨著時間的推移，監管機構越來越關注並確保客戶受到公平對待。你所指的競爭對手是一個非常去中心化的模式。他們的收費標準在不同的客戶群中非常不同，因此他們必須進行調整。我們沒有那個。坦白說，我們喜歡 Brewin Dolphin 的原因是其商業模式的發展方向符合消費者的責任。它非常注重建議，並注重與客戶的規劃。

We'll make some tweaks around fee scales to make absolutely certain that everyone is getting consistent treatment across the different channels, the different market -- target market segments, but we're quite comfortable. And from an asset management perspective, on the BlueBay side, there's less acute focus there. It's now fully integrated with the rest of the Global Asset Management. So over the last 12 to 18 months, there's been a fair amount of heavy lifting, which we haven't really highlighted externally. -- to get systems integrated to get teams integrated to create a more scalable, leverageable infrastructure around both operations and distribution. And so that's really been the focus at BlueBay, and it's the consumer duty piece is much more on the distribution side on the advice side.

我們將圍繞費用標準進行一些調整，以絕對確保每個人都能在不同管道、不同市場——目標細分市場中獲得一致的待遇，但我們對此感到非常滿意。從資產管理的角度來看，BlueBay 的關注度較低。現在它已與全球資產管理的其他部分完全整合。因此，在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，發生了相當多的繁重工作，但我們並沒有真正向外部強調這一點。 ——整合系統，整合團隊，圍繞營運和分銷創造更具可擴展性、可利用性的基礎設施。因此，這確實是 BlueBay 的焦點，消費者的責任更集中在分銷方面和建議方面。

The following question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

以下問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

This question might be appropriate for Graeme. There's this evolving narrative I'm hearing from our banks that PCLs could move a little higher here in the near term, there would be a transition and then they would start to decline, perhaps by early '25 or mid-25. What I'm asking about is this, while rates were moving higher, it took some time before it had the effect of causing PCLs to move higher. In fact, we're only seeing a meaningful increase in PCLs. It seems like this quarter. That's quite a long lag from when rates started to rise when we saw the PCLs. Why would it be the case then that declining rates late this year would lead to such an abbreviated cycle, a period of declining PCLs following shortly thereafter? While wouldn't there be a meaningful lag where we see higher PCLs before the effect of lower rates have the desired outcome?

這個問題可能適合格雷姆。我從我們的銀行那裡聽到了一種不斷變化的說法，即 PCL 短期內可能會稍微走高，然後會出現一個轉變，然後可能會在 25 年初或 25 年中期開始下降。我要問的是，雖然利率走高，但花了一些時間才產生導致 PCL 走高的效果。事實上，我們只看到 PCL 顯著增加。好像是這個季度的。這與我們看到 PCL 時利率開始上升的時間有相當長的延遲。那麼，為什麼今年年底的利率下降會導致如此短暫的周期，也就是不久後就會出現 PCL 下降的時期呢？然而，在較低利率的影響達到預期結果之前，我們會看到較高的 PCL 是否會存在有意義的延遲？

Yes. Thanks, Mario. It's a good question. And again, I would just start by saying rates is certainly one critical factor that drives PCL, but it's not the sole critical factor that's driving PCL, right? And when you look at a portfolio like ours that's very diversified both geographically sector, consumer wholesale, rates plays out differently in each of those segments. And so in certain rate sensor products, whether it be an RCL in retail, there's going to be a more concurrent effect, if you will, with rates going up and down than in other products. But likewise, factors like unemployment we talked about previously are certainly a big indicator of where our PCL will go.

是的。謝謝，馬裡奧。這是一個好問題。再說一次，我首先要說的是，利率肯定是推動 PCL 的關鍵因素，但它並不是推動 PCL 的唯一關鍵因素，對吧？當你看到像我們這樣的投資組合時，它在地理領域、消費者批發領域都非常多元化，每個細分市場的費率表現都不同。因此，在某些速率感測器產品中，無論是零售業的 RCL，如果願意的話，都會產生比其他產品更並發的效應，速率會上升或下降。但同樣，我們之前談到的失業等因素無疑是我們的 PCL 走向的一個重要指標。

And so that's kind of what drives -- we bring all those into the mix when we're kind of considering our forecast and thinking about it going forward. As you said, we're seeing some of that lag effect happen on rates. That's why we do and as I indicated earlier, between that and unemployment, why we see this kind of grading out in kind of through 2024 and into 2025 Certainly, what happens kind of beyond that, I mean, we're starting to get into a forecast period that is highly dependent on how all this plays out. But again, it's a combination of all these factors and not just raised by itself, but I think will ultimately define our trajectory of PCL.

這就是推動因素——當我們考慮我們的預測並思考未來時，我們會將所有這些因素納入其中。正如您所說，我們看到利率出現了一些滯後效應。這就是為什麼我們這樣做，正如我之前指出的，在失業和失業之間，為什麼我們會在2024 年和2025 年看到這種分級。當然，除此之外會發生什麼，我的意思是，我們開始進入預測期很大程度取決於這一切的進展。但同樣，它是所有這些因素的結合，而不僅僅是其本身，但我認為最終將定義我們 PCL 的發展軌跡。

Okay. Somewhat related question. It would appear that the Canadian consumer is slowing. Dave, I think you made the point in your opening comments, we're seeing a Canadian consumer slowdown, somewhat more abruptly than in the U.S. The contrast, however, is the 3.7% sequential growth in commercial loans this quarter. That confuses me. It confused to me to see the Canadian consumer slowdown somewhat abruptly but yet Royal and others showing such robust growth in commercial. How do those 2 things happen simultaneously?

好的。有點相關的問題。加拿大消費者的成長速度似乎正在放緩。戴夫，我認為你在開場白中指出了這一點，我們看到加拿大消費者放緩，比美國更突然。然而，對比的是本季度商業貸款環比增長 3.7%。這讓我很困惑。令我困惑的是，加拿大消費者的成長有些突然放緩，但皇家和其他公司在商業領域表現出如此強勁的成長。這兩件事如何同時發生？

Yes, I'll start, Mario, it's Neil. I mean if you look at it, we've talked about this for a number of quarters in our commercial strategy, we've -- we've made quite a pivot to restructure our front office to get our most senior bankers lined up against our larger commercial clients, and that's where we've been adding FTE. So that has been a multiyear strategy. And the resegmentation, we'd say we feel really good. It's paying off in the way we intended. We're seeing the growth come from the larger clients. And we also set out in that strategy to make sure we really like the diversification. And we're seeing that growth across multiple sectors, things like agriculture, things like our auto business has seen very good growth.

是的，我要開始了，馬裡奧，我是尼爾。我的意思是，如果你看一下，我們已經在我們的商業策略中討論了這個問題好幾個季度了，我們已經在重組我們的前台部門方面做出了相當大的調整，讓我們最資深的銀行家與我們一起對抗。我們更大的商業客戶，這就是我們一直在增加 FTE 的地方。所以這是一個多年戰略。對於重新細分，我們會說我們感覺非常好。它正在以我們預期的方式得到回報。我們看到成長來自於更大的客戶。我們也在該策略中製定了確保我們真正喜歡多元化的策略。我們看到多個行業的成長，例如農業，例如我們的汽車業務，都取得了非常好的成長。

So that's where we would really look at it. We've not expanded our risk appetite in that business. In fact, where we look -- Dave mentioned it. 80-plus percent of our growth is coming from existing clients. And where we've added new clients, these are actually as good or better rated clients than we would have had in previous years. So in our business, we would say this is around a purposeful strategy and it's led with a front office and is led with advise and capability.

這就是我們真正要關注的地方。我們沒有擴大該業務的風險偏好。事實上，戴夫提到過這一點。我們 80% 以上的成長來自現有客戶。在我們新增客戶的地方，這些客戶實際上與我們前幾年的客戶一樣好或評價更高。因此，在我們的業務中，我們會說這是圍繞一個有目的的策略，它由前台辦公室領導，並由建議和能力領導。

It sounds like a Royal thing.

聽起來像是皇家的事情。

It's Dave. Just to add macro color to it, I did also say in my comments, as you probably picked up that we do expect CapEx to slow as well as some businesses anticipate in the manufacturing and logistics sector, slowing goods and potentially service demand in the economy. Now the one variable, so we are seeing kind of equivalency and macro impact there. One of the dimensions that we all struggle to predict is what's going to happen with the $350 billion of consumer deposits that largely sit in GICs right now. Some will flow as we expect back into equities and back into investment products. Some will create stimulative demand.

是戴夫。只是為了增加宏觀色彩，我在評論中也說過，正如您可能注意到的那樣，我們確實預計資本支出將放緩，正如一些企業預計製造業和物流行業一樣，經濟中的商品和潛在服務需求將放緩。現在是一個變量，所以我們看到了某種等價性和宏觀影響。我們都難以預測的問題之一是目前主要存放在擔保投資證中的 3500 億美元消費者存款將會發生什麼。正如我們預期的那樣，一些將重新流入股票和投資產品。有些會創造刺激需求。

So that's different than the United States where the large part of the surplus deposits of $3.5 trillion have been spent already. Canada sits on that buffer and it's helped absorb some cash flow challenges from higher rates, but it largely remains particularly in the top 40% of Canadians largely intact from where it was last year. So we're watching that carefully to see how that gets deployed, but it can serve all those purposes, right, a buffer for risk, a stimulant for growth and a higher yield into investment products.

因此，這與美國不同，美國的 3.5 兆美元的盈餘存款大部分已經被花掉。加拿大處於這一緩衝之中，它幫助吸收了利率上升帶來的一些現金流挑戰，但它在很大程度上仍然保持不變，特別是在加拿大前40% 的人中，與去年相比基本保持不變。因此，我們正在仔細觀察它是如何部署的，但它可以滿足所有這些目的，對吧，緩衝風險，刺激成長並提高投資產品的收益率。

The following question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

以下問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

Two questions. First one is with respect to funding cost pressures. You've highlighted funding cost pressures, I think some of the other banks have as well. It seems to be lasting longer than we would have expected, let's call it, last quarter. What's your recent view on when this might abate? And what would be I guess, the key catalysts or triggers for those funding cost pressures to abate?

兩個問題。第一個是融資成本壓力。您強調了融資成本壓力，我認為其他一些銀行也有這種壓力。它的持續時間似乎比我們預期的要長，我們稱之為上個季度。您最近對這種情況何時會減弱有何看法？我猜想，減輕融資成本壓力的關鍵催化劑或觸發因素是什麼？

Paul, it's Neil. I'll start this off. So I think the factors there within the retail business, I would point to 2 of them. One is the mix of deposits. So we're seeing in our core noninterest-bearing consumer deposits, those are marginally down year-over-year. Our savings accounts are, again, while they pay interest, there's still a very valuable deposit for us. Those are also down modestly year-over-year. In stark contrast, it's the GIC book Dave referenced. We were up about $10 billion quarter-over-quarter in GICs and it's the same trend we've commented on for a couple of quarters, which is excess liquidity, still not having mass retail investor confidence is then that to, in our case, the fund business or in Doug's Wealth business to more securities. And so there's -- while some of those client rates are off, they're still quite attractive. So that continues to be a rotation that we've commented on before.

保羅，是尼爾。我就從這開始吧。因此，我認為零售業務中存在的因素，我會指出其中的兩個。一是存款的混合。因此，我們看到我們的核心無息消費者存款較去年同期略有下降。我們的儲蓄帳戶雖然支付利息，但對我們來說仍然有一筆非常有價值的存款。這些也同比小幅下降。與此形成鮮明對比的是，Dave 引用的 GIC 書籍。我們的擔保投資證季度環比增長了約 100 億美元，這與我們幾個季度評論的趨勢相同，即流動性過剩，但仍然缺乏大量散戶投資者的信心，就我們而言，基金業務或Doug's Wealth業務轉向更多證券。因此，儘管其中一些客戶價格有所下降，但它們仍然相當有吸引力。因此，這仍然是我們之前評論過的輪換。

The second part of that, I would say, is the spreads within the GIC book, while still very strong, or they have come down over the last year as we've seen a lot more competition for those term deposits. So it's both rotation and mix and then competitive pricing on the consumer book. It's basically the same trend as we get into our commercial deposits. We're seeing larger growth at the upper end in our larger commercial and corporates. There is -- those are lower margin deposits and really point to a mix. And there has been on, again, steep price competition for the term product amongst those commercial and corporate. So very much mirrors, I'd say the same themes on both sides of consumer and then corporate and commercial.

我想說的是，第二部分是擔保投資證帳簿內的利差，儘管仍然非常強勁，或者說它們在去年有所下降，因為我們看到對這些定期存款的競爭更加激烈。因此，這既是輪換又是混合，然後是消費者書籍上有競爭力的定價。這與我們進入商業存款的趨勢基本相同。我們看到大型商業和企業的高端業務出現了更大的成長。這些都是保證金較低的存款，實際上是一個混合體。商業和企業之間對該術語產品的價格競爭再次激烈。如此多的鏡子，我想說的是消費者、企業和商業雙方都有相同的主題。

Yes, I would just add to that. I mean they obviously are still a very strong, good source of funding, right? So it drives down the overall wholesale funding requirement. But in addition, I think given when we talk about Dave's comments earlier, where that flow of funds may be given the dominance what Neil mentioned around the wealth management business, while we may not capture that through as a funding source, it does actually look to come back in from a fee revenue standpoint.

是的，我只想補充一點。我的意思是，他們顯然仍然是一個非常強大、良好的資金來源，對吧？因此，它降低了整體批發融資需求。但除此之外，我認為考慮到當我們之前討論戴夫的評論時，資金流可能會像尼爾提到的財富管理業務那樣佔據主導地位，雖然我們可能不會通過將其作為資金來源來捕捉，但它實際上看起來確實如此從費用收入的角度來看。

Yes, just to provide some context on Nadine's comment in the quarter, about half of that flow into GICs would be coming outside of the Canadian retail business with the majority of that coming from outside the institution.

是的，只是為了提供 Nadine 在本季度的評論的一些背景信息，流入 GIC 的大約一半資金將來自加拿大零售業務之外，其中大部分來自該機構外部。

Got it. And I mean that kind of leads to my second question, the point that Dave raised just previously is at some point in time when rates go down, you'd expect these GIC deposits, these term deposits to flow into other savings vehicles, mutual funds or what have you. What kind of then becomes a liquidity solution at that point in time? Obviously, those deposits have to be replaced by something. Is it what Nadine referred to, maybe it's wholesale funding? Or how do you think that plays out?

知道了。我的意思是，這引出了我的第二個問題，戴夫之前提出的觀點是，在利率下降的某個時間點，你會期望這些擔保投資證存款、這些定期存款流入其他儲蓄工具、共同基金或你有什麼。那麼在那個時間點什麼樣的流動性解決方案會成為流動性解決方案呢？顯然，這些存款必須被某些東西取代。是納丁所說的嗎，也許是批發資金？還是你認為結果如何？

I think that's one of the reasons why we're so focused on our deposit franchise and have been in a lot of acquisition that Neil has spoken to in the past, and particularly our record client acquisition last year and into this year and our newcomer to Canada. And you think about HSBC, that's just giving us more opportunity to grow on our demand deposit book, while there is an expectation that when markets come down, that the -- or some markets improve and rates come down, that those deposits could flow into things like mutual funds. I think there's also the growth that we continue to have overall in our client franchise that will help stem that. And then we also do have a leading from our wholesale funding, we do price quite lower than the rest of the peer group on that. But I think that we've got opportunities also in cash management that we discussed in the U.S. to help supplement our asset growth.

我認為這就是為什麼我們如此專注於我們的存款特許經營權並且進行了尼爾過去談到的大量收購的原因之一，特別是我們去年和今年的記錄客戶收購以及我們的新客戶加拿大。你想想匯豐銀行，這只是給我們更多的機會來發展我們的活期存款帳戶，同時人們預計，當市場下跌時，或者某些市場改善並且利率下降，這些存款可能會流入像共同基金之類的東西。我認為我們的客戶特許經營權整體上的持續成長也將有助於阻止這種情況。然後，我們的批發資金也確實處於領先地位，我們的價格確實比其他同行低得多。但我認為我們在美國討論過的現金管理方面也有機會來幫助補充我們的資產成長。

The following question is from Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets.

以下問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Sohrab Movahedi。

Okay. I also have hopefully 2 questions, not too long. Dave #1 on this City National. I'm just curious what's the lesson learned here? Is it if it grows like we did [tweak]? Or how do you -- I mean, at some stage, you will do another acquisition in the U.S.? What are the lessons learned? What are the lessons learned from this one?

好的。我希望還有兩個問題，不要太長。戴夫在這個城市國家排名第一。我只是好奇這裡學到了什麼教訓？如果它像我們一樣增長[調整]嗎？或者你如何——我的意思是，在某個階段，你將在美國進行另一次收購？吸取了哪些教訓？從這件事可以得到哪些教訓呢？

No, I think it's a good question. I think our growth outstripped our operational capability. We emphasize maybe growth over the profitability of the growth a little too strongly. Certainly, the franchise was tested to see if it could grow geographically. It was an important part of our investment thesis, which it has done. We wanted to see how it could scale. So I think from all those perspectives, and I equate that back to some of the growth we've seen in other parts of our businesses historically have exhibited similar trends.

不，我認為這是一個好問題。我認為我們的成長超出了我們的營運能力。我們強調成長可能過於強調成長的獲利能力。當然，我們對特許經營權進行了測試，看看它是否可以在地域上成長。這是我們投資理論的重要組成部分，而且它已經做到了。我們想看看它如何擴展。因此，我認為從所有這些角度來看，我將其等同於我們在其他業務領域看到的一些成長，歷史上也表現出類似的趨勢。

So I think now there's opportunity to really push the profitability of the existing balance sheet. And I think that's a nice tailwind for investors. And it's really important for us to build a really solid technology and operational foundation. So in the future, we continue to roll up within our strategy. So I think that is the objective. It's an important outlet for capital in the long term for RBC, and it's an important part of the franchise. And we've got an outstanding leadership team there that has done this before in a large regional bank led by Greg Carmichael. So we're very fortunate. Greg has built a strong team very quickly there that have done this before and led a bank to sustainable growth with a strong infrastructure. So we're feeling really good about things. It was a tough year last year, I admit, and those are kind of -- it's a fair question. Those are the learnings.

所以我認為現在有機會真正提高現有資產負債表的獲利能力。我認為這對投資者來說是一個很好的推動力。建立真正堅實的技術和營運基礎對我們來說非常重要。因此，未來我們將繼續推進我們的策略。所以我認為這就是目標。從長遠來看，它是加拿大皇家銀行重要的資本管道，也是特許經營權的重要組成部分。我們有一支出色的領導團隊，他們以前在格雷格·卡邁克爾領導的一家大型區域銀行中做到了這一點。所以我們非常幸運。格雷格很快就在那裡建立了一支強大的團隊，他們以前就這樣做過，並透過強大的基礎設施帶領銀行實現了永續成長。所以我們感覺非常好。我承認，去年是艱難的一年，這是一個公平的問題。這些就是教訓。

Perfect. And just, I guess, just for you, maybe just for the broader team, if I maybe can start with Derek. Just trying to get a feel for what's the revenue environment you envision over the next, call it, 4 to 6 quarters? And what sort of growth? Where do you think it's going to come from -- is it going to be volume? Is it going to be free, which business maybe might be contributing more or less than the other businesses, given the diversified mix? If I can just get some commentary around the revenue outlook.

完美的。我想，只是為了你，也許只是為了更廣泛的團隊，如果我可以從德里克開始的話。只是想了解一下您設想的未來（即 4 到 6 個季度）的收入環境如何？以及什麼樣的成長？你認為它會從哪裡來——是數量嗎？考慮到多元化的組合，它會是免費的嗎？哪個業務可能比其他業務做出更多或更少的貢獻？如果我能得到一些關於收入前景的評論。

I think your last part of the question there is part of the investment thesis for RY, that we have such strong diversified NII and noninterest income capabilities. And I think where you can see a lot of excitement building in our comments is around the other fee income, noninterest income, particularly around capital markets and the pipeline that will start to convert in our ability to leverage our growth there and drive fee-based business. We've talked about it a couple of times already on the call and the flow from fixed income into other higher-yielding equity investments and managed investments within our franchise in the United States, Canada and the U.K. now, which is an emerging strength for RY that's starting to differentiate itself from some of our peers, which we're getting more and more excited about.

我認為你問題的最後一部分是 RY 投資論點的一部分，即我們擁有如此強大的多元化 NII 和非利息收入能力。我認為，您可以在我們的評論中看到很多令人興奮的地方，那就是其他費用收入、非利息收入，特別是圍繞資本市場和管道，這些管道將開始轉變我們利用那裡的增長並推動基於費用的能力。商業。我們已經在電話會議上討論過幾次，以及我們現在在美國、加拿大和英國的特許經營範圍內從固定收益轉向其他高收益股權投資和管理投資的趨勢，這是一個新興的優勢RY 開始從我們的一些同行中脫穎而出，我們對此越來越興奮。

While we may see some NII pressure from rates that we're seeing strong growth. We're seeing strong growth in commercial, which is a higher-yielding product for us. we're seeing the leverage that comes from our market-leading deposit franchise, which should help mitigate some of that more than maybe some of our competitors, I think, is a strong support of that. So volume other income strength is certainly a big part of that. And there's an opportunity. We're hopeful there's -- as I said in my words, intense competition in a number of markets, including mortgages, we're probably at historic lows, I would think, there. And there's always hope that as we come off the floor of historical lows into some more normalized margin environment for some of our secured lending products in Canada as well. So I think all that pertains to we're feeling generally quite positive.

雖然我們可能會看到一些來自利率的NII壓力，但我們看到了強勁的成長。我們看到商業產品的強勁成長，這對我們來說是一種收益更高的產品。我們看到來自我們市場領先的存款特許經營權的槓桿作用，我認為，這應該比我們的一些競爭對手更有助於減輕其中的一些影響，我認為，這是對此的有力支持。因此，其他收入實力的數量肯定是其中的重要組成部分。還有一個機會。我們希望——正如我用我的話來說的那樣，包括抵押貸款在內的許多市場的激烈競爭，我認為我們可能處於歷史低點。人們總是希望，隨著我們走出歷史低點，進入加拿大一些擔保貸款產品的更正常化的保證金環境。所以我認為這一切都與我們整體感覺非常積極有關。

The following question is from Lemar Persaud from Cormark Securities.

以下問題來自 Cormark Securities 的 Lemar Persaud。

I kind of want to bolt on to Mario's question on the divergence in growth in commercial versus retail. But I'm wondering if you could talk about how long this cross-sell to existing clients is gonna last? Like is this a 2024 phenomenon, but then largely abating into 2025? Or is this something that could persist into the future? It just feels like any time we talk about commercial, we're typically thinking -- we typically think about this as having some element of persistence where it could last for even a few years, whereas on the retail side, you see some banks turn on and off the taps depending on competitive factors and spreads in the market.

我有點想談談馬裡奧關於商業與零售成長差異的問題。但我想知道您能否談談這種對現有客戶的交叉銷售會持續多久？這是 2024 年的現象，但到 2025 年就會大幅減弱嗎？或者這會持續到未來？感覺就像任何時候我們談論商業時，我們通常都會想到——我們通常認為這具有某種持久性，甚至可以持續幾年，而在零售方面，你會看到一些銀行轉向水龍頭的開關取決於競爭因素和市價差。

Yes, thanks. It's Neil. I mean, I think for the most part, on our commercial business, I mean, our strategy has been for quite some time to grow with our best clients. So as clients continue to invest and grow the franchise, we continue to be there with them, and the majority of our growth has come from our existing clients for an exceptionally long time. I think what you're hearing is we have pivoted to a more profitable client segment with just broader needs where we can put in more products, and that is something we're feeling quite good about.

對了謝謝。是尼爾.我的意思是，我認為在很大程度上，在我們的商業業務上，我的意思是，我們的策略已經很長一段時間了，與我們最好的客戶一起成長。因此，隨著客戶繼續投資和發展特許經營權，我們將繼續與他們同在，而且我們的大部分成長在很長一段時間內都來自於我們的現有客戶。我想你聽到的是，我們已經轉向利潤更高的客戶群，他們的需求更廣泛，我們可以投入更多產品，這是我們感覺非常好的事情。

And maybe the last thing I would say is we touched on the timing of HSBC, but we do see that as obviously a very profitable and a very attractive client set that we continue to be impressed at the capabilities HSBC has brought but we do see opportunities to bring products to the table they don't have. And so I think that is another vector of cross-sell. We probably haven't talked that much about. And maybe on the consumer side, Nadine and Dave both commented on our new client origination of consumers. And that's something that has been on a very steep trajectory, and we're starting these new relationships, and we'll continue to grow with our consumers as well. So I do think on both sides, we feel it does have staying power.

也許我要說的最後一件事是我們談到了匯豐銀行的時機，但我們確實看到，這顯然是一個非常有利可圖且非常有吸引力的客戶群，我們繼續對匯豐銀行帶來的能力印象深刻，但我們確實看到了機會將他們沒有的產品帶到餐桌上。所以我認為這是交叉銷售的另一個載體。我們可能還沒聊過那麼多。也許在消費者方面，納丁和戴夫都對我們的新客戶消費者起源發表了評論。這是一個非常陡峭的軌跡，我們正在開始這些新的關係，我們也將繼續與我們的消費者一起成長。所以我確實認為雙方都認為它確實具有持久力。

Got you. And then maybe for my second question, turning to Graeme. What do you -- I'm wondering if you could flesh out what you mean by the implied loss rates on impaired loans as 28%. On your Slide 28. Is that intended to suggest that on the impaired CRE 72% is covered by tangible collateral and guarantees, so you reserved to 28%. Is that the way I should be looking at that? Or is there some risk that may be of collateral on these guarantees aren't as good as you're expecting that maybe that implied loss rate could move higher? Any thoughts there would be helpful.

明白你了。然後也許是我的第二個問題，轉向格雷姆。你怎麼看——我想知道你是否能具體說明你所說的減損貸款隱含損失率為 28% 的意思。在你的投影片 28 上。這是否意味著受損的 CRE 72% 由有形抵押品和擔保承擔，因此你保留了 28%。我應該這樣看嗎？或者是否存在一些風險，這些擔保的抵押品可能不如您預期的那麼隱含損失率可能會更高？任何想法都會有幫助。

Yes, sure. I appreciate that. To be clear, what we're providing you there is a indication of what our actual outcomes have on those commercial real estate accounts has defaulted. We're just highlighting that while we catch a lot of headlines and valuations are hard, on average, we're still realizing an amount there that's still quite strong and consistent with kind of expectations. And so only give an account, we've seen kind of worse outcomes than that, but we've seen lots of accounts where we kind of get fully repaid as well. So overall, this even more distressed and difficult environment, we're still realizing at relatively healthy levels.

是的，當然。我很感激。需要明確的是，我們向您提供的內容表明我們對這些已違約的商業房地產帳戶的實際結果。我們只是強調，雖然我們看到了很多頭條新聞並且估值很困難，但平均而言，我們仍然意識到那裡的金額仍然相當強勁並且與預期一致。因此，只提供一個帳戶，我們已經看到了比這更糟糕的結果，但我們也看到了很多帳戶，我們也得到了全額償還。因此，總體而言，在這種更痛苦和困難的環境下，我們仍然處於相對健康的水平。

Our last question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Veritas Investment Research 的 Nigel D'Souza。

Just 2 for you, if I could keep on. First on the HSBC Canada. And the first one of defense is underwriting the portfolio ahead of a more challenging environment in RBC did underwrite HSBC Canada's portfolio. So I'm wondering if you could share any thoughts on what you're seeing in terms of the credit performance metrics for HSBC Canada? How are you thinking about their commercial book as well, which has automotive manufacturing and real estate exposures? And how does that tie into the credit mark on purchase price accounting on disclosures?

只要我能堅持下去，就給你2個。首先是加拿大匯豐銀行。第一個防禦是在更具挑戰性的環境之前承保投資組合，加拿大皇家銀行確實承保了加拿大匯豐銀行的投資組合。所以我想知道您是否可以分享您對加拿大匯豐銀行信用績效指標的看法？您如何看待他們的商業書籍，其中涉及汽車製造和房地產業務？這與揭露的購買價格會計的信用分數有何關係？

All right. There's a number of pieces there, but it's great. Maybe I'll start and turn it over to Neil. Certainly, you go back to the diligence we did at the inception of the transaction. Credit was a huge part of our focus there. And it's where our kind of size and scale comes into play. We brought a lot of people into the room on that from the risk management side and the business side to go very deep on their portfolios, really understand their mortgage portfolio, their commercial portfolios. We did that from both an aggregate portfolio view as well as right down to reviewing and understanding the underwriting they did on sample portfolios there.

好的。那裡有很多作品，但都很棒。也許我會開始並將其交給尼爾。當然，你可以回到我們在交易開始時所做的盡職調查。信貸是我們關注的重要部分。這就是我們的規模發揮作用的地方。我們從風險管理方面和業務方面邀請了許多人進入房間，深入研究他們的投資組合，真正了解他們的抵押貸款投資組合和商業投資組合。我們從整體投資組合的角度以及直接審查和了解他們對樣本投資組合進行的承銷的角度來做到這一點。

So through that process, we got very comfortable with their portfolio that if anything, it skews a little bit better than some of our portfolios, the nature of their retail client base is a fairly high net worth one, and so that tends to skew well. And likewise, in commercial, and particularly in this environment, their commercial portfolio, again skews to a larger commercial accounts, which in this environment is performing better than, as I noted earlier, kind of the smaller commercial and smaller business piece.

因此，透過這個過程，我們對他們的投資組合感到非常滿意，如果有的話，它比我們的一些投資組合要好一些，他們的零售客戶群的性質是相當高的淨值客戶群，因此往往會很好地傾斜。同樣，在商業領域，特別是在這種環境下，他們的商業投資組合再次偏向於較大的商業帳戶，在這種環境下，其表現比我之前提到的較小的商業和較小的業務部分要好。

So overall, I think we felt really good about the diligence we did at the time. Obviously, we're -- we'll get the full details of this transition across on March 28, as Dave indicated. But I don't think at this point in time, we've seen anything that was new there that would cause this concern. But maybe Neil can talk to some of the performance and discussions we've been having.

總的來說，我認為我們對當時所做的努力感覺非常好。顯然，正如 Dave 所言，我們將在 3 月 28 日獲得此次過渡的完整細節。但我認為目前我們還沒有看到任何會引起這種擔憂的新情況。但也許尼爾可以談談我們一直在進行的一些表演和討論。

Yes, I think very much aligned with Graeme's comments. I mean, let me start with the consumer. These are generally more affluent consumers. They have FICO scores that actually skew higher than our overall portfolio. And to Graeme's point, it is hard to do due diligence and do extensive file reviews to really understand their processes and their policies. I think all of that really took away at NAFTA to the experience we saw in the data room and everything in their performance. very similar, I'd say, on commercial, higher -- larger clients. They do skew very much to the highest segment that we serve. They don't really participate that much in the sort of under $10 million under $5 million credit segment. So larger clients better rated.

是的，我認為與格雷姆的評論非常一致。我的意思是，讓我從消費者開始。這些通常是較富裕的消費者。他們的 FICO 分數實際上高於我們的整體投資組合。在格雷姆看來，很難透過盡職調查和廣泛的文件審查來真正了解他們的流程和政策。我認為所有這些確實讓我們在北美自由貿易協定中看到了我們在數據室中看到的體驗以及他們的表現中的一切。我想說，對於商業、更高——更大的客戶來說，非常相似。他們確實非常偏向我們服務的最高細分市場。他們並沒有真正參與 500 萬美元以下 1000 萬美元以下的信貸部分。所以更大的客戶評價比較好。

And the last part of that, we'd say, is we did go through an extensive exercise to really just map [YPD] and do a deep analytical exercise to get comfort, all to say, extensive due diligence, and we feel quite good about the book.

最後一部分，我們要說的是，我們確實進行了廣泛的練習，以真正繪製 [YPD] 並進行深入的分析練習，以得到安慰，總而言之，廣泛的盡職調查，我們感覺很好關於這本書。

Thank you. We have no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. McKay.

謝謝。目前我們沒有進一步的問題。我現在想把會議交給麥凱先生。

Well, thank you, everyone, for attending today, and thank you for your questions. Maybe I'll just kind of summarize the themes that we hope came out from our comments and your questions. One, I would say a very strong start to the year characterized by really good client flow across all our businesses. Our compete level was very high from global markets and investment banking, wealth management, asset management and distribution to the majority of our sectors, particularly commercial and in the retail bank and insurance, very, very strong compete levels and quality business that we brought in, I think, drove the story to today matched by very good cost control.

好的，謝謝大家今天出席，也謝謝大家提出的問題。也許我會總結我們希望從我們的評論和您的問題中得出的主題。首先，我想說今年的開局非常強勁，我們所有業務的客戶流量都非常好。我們的競爭水平非常高，從全球市場和投資銀行、財富管理、資產管理和分銷到我們的大多數行業，特別是商業和零售銀行和保險，我們引入了非常非常強的競爭水平和優質業務我認為，推動故事發展到今天的原因是非常好的成本控制。

So as you see our focus on costs in the face of good volume control, good cost control, and we are very focused on that for the rest of the year into 2025, producing a strong fortress balance sheet of 14.9%. We gave you a glimpse forward into where we think we're going to close the HSBC transaction and very strong capital levels, which gives us a lot of flexibility given the power capital generation power of this franchise going forward will be even enhanced. Great progress on HSBC, albeit we lost 3 months in the approval process. We're on track again, for that March 28 close, kind of reaffirmed our synergies, gave you greater clarity around the timing.

因此，正如您所看到的，在良好的銷售控制和成本控制面前，我們非常關注成本，而且我們在 2025 年剩餘時間裡非常關注這一點，從而實現了 14.9% 的強勁資產負債表。我們讓您了解了我們認為我們將在哪裡完成匯豐銀行的交易以及非常強大的資本水平，這給了我們很大的靈活性，因為該特許經營權未來的發電能力將進一步增強。匯豐銀行取得了巨大進展，儘管我們在審批過程中損失了 3 個月的時間。我們再次步入正軌，3 月 28 日的收盤價再次確認了我們的協同效應，讓您更清楚地了解了時間安排。

And then obviously, as we've signaled a lot of great work at CNB, we have a path forward there. We're at full run rate to strengthen this platform. We have an opportunity to create more profitability from existing platform and position ourselves for strong integrated growth across all our businesses in the United States. So thank you very much. Look forward to seeing you in Q2 and have a great day.

顯然，正如我們在 CNB 所做的許多出色工作所表明的那樣，我們在那裡有一條前進的道路。我們正在全力以赴地加強這個平台。我們有機會從現有平台創造更多獲利能力，並為我們在美國的所有業務實現強勁的綜合成長做好準備。非常感謝。期待在第二季度見到您並祝您度過美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。