力拓 (RIO) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本期 EBITDA 年增 28% 至 148 億美元,主要受惠於銅與鋁價格上揚及生產力提升,帶動自由現金流年增 75%,中期股息提升 43% 至 34 億美元
    • 維持 2026、2027 年 CapEx 指引(最高 110 億美元),2028 年起降至 100 億美元(2025 年實質價值),生產力提升目標年末 run rate 上修至 18 億美元
    • 市場反應正面,法人普遍關注生產力提升細節、資產組合簡化進度及主要成長專案進展
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 銅、鋁、鋰等關鍵金屬受惠於電氣化、AI、數位化及傳統需求,Rio Tinto 具產業領先的資產組合與規模
      • Simandou、OT(Oyu Tolgoi)、Rhodes Ridge 等大型專案進度超前,帶動未來產能與現金流成長
      • 生產力提升計畫已實現 8.7 億美元效益,年底 run rate 目標上修至 18 億美元,持續推動成本結構優化
      • 銅產量目標 2030 年達 100 萬噸,Kennecott、OT 持續擴產,並有多項棕地與綠地專案儲備
    • 風險:
      • Kennecott、IOC 等部分資產短期內受地質與設備健康挑戰,影響產量與現金流時程
      • 美國 232 關稅、全球貿易政策變動對鋁等產品流向及投資決策帶來不確定性
      • 蒙古稅務爭議金額累計約 9 億美元,仍在仲裁程序中,需持續與當地政府協調
      • 澳洲 Pilbara 區域工會化趨勢上升,未來勞動條件變動可能影響營運彈性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 銅等價產量:年增 3%,主要受 OT 持續增產帶動
    • 自由現金流:年增 75%,反映商品價格與營運效率提升
    • 銅事業群 EBITDA:年增 84%,自由現金流超過三倍成長
    • 鋁事業群 EBITDA:年增 31%,受惠於市場價格與營運韌性
    • Pilbara 鐵礦石產量:創 2018 年以來上半年新高,單位成本維持指引範圍
  4. 財務預測
    • 營收預估未調整,維持成長動能,2026、2027 年 CapEx 指引最高 110 億美元,2028 年起降至 100 億美元(2025 年實質價值)
    • 毛利率預估未明確揭露,但生產力提升與成本結構優化有助維持高水準
    • 維持每年 40 億美元維持性資本支出,鋰與 Simandou 專案每年約 10 億美元成長資本支出
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 生產力提升 run rate 從 8.7 億美元提升到 18 億美元,成本與產量貢獻如何分配?
      A: 今年成本貢獻約 5.3 億美元,其餘來自產量提升,全年預期結構類似,細節會隨各事業群推進而調整。
    • Q: 鋁事業群未來策略與資產組合簡化的關聯?
      A: 鋁為公司核心四大商品之一,持續強化成本結構與營運效率,並評估全球產能配置,聚焦於具競爭力資產與成長機會。
    • Q: Resolution 銅礦專案進度與下一步?
      A: 目前正進行礦體鑽探與特性分析,取得土地交換後已展開現場作業,後續將依礦體特性決定開發路徑。
    • Q: 美國 232 關稅對鋁業務投資決策影響?
      A: 貿易政策變動對流向有影響,但目前影響有限,團隊已建立靈活調度能力,未來將持續關注並調整投資策略。
    • Q: 蒙古稅務爭議進展?
      A: 相關爭議已納入投資決策考量,正與蒙古政府持續協商,並進入正式仲裁程序。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • So now, I'd like to extend a warm welcome to all of our guests today for the 2026 half-year results.

    現在,我想熱烈歡迎今天所有來賓出席我們 2026 年上半年業績發表。

  • Before I begin, I would like to acknowledge the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation on whose traditional lands we are gathered on today. And I pay my respects to Elders past and present. I extend that respect to all indigenous peoples around the globe. I acknowledge they continue to play an important role within our communities and our businesses.

    在我開始之前,我想先致敬我們今天聚集所在之傳統土地的原住民——Eora 民族的 Gadigal 人。並向歷代與在世的長者致上敬意。我也將這份敬意延伸至全球所有原住民族。我認同他們持續在我們的社區與企業中扮演重要角色。

  • We are here today with our CEO, Simon Trott; and CFO, Peter Cunningham, to present to you these financial results. This will be followed by a Q&A session. As a reminder, the usual cautionary statements apply.

    今天我們與執行長 Simon Trott 以及財務長 Peter Cunningham 一同在此,向各位呈報本次財務業績。接著將進行問答環節。提醒各位,慣常的前瞻性聲明注意事項同樣適用。

  • Now I'm very pleased to introduce Chairman Murray, Chairperson of the Metropolitan Local Aboriginal Land Council, who will deliver our Welcome to Country today before Simon commences the presentation.

    現在我非常榮幸介紹大都會地方原住民土地委員會(Metropolitan Local Aboriginal Land Council)主席 Murray 主席,他將在 Simon 開始簡報前,為我們進行今天的「歡迎來到國土」(Welcome to Country)儀式。

  • I now invite Chairman Murray to the stage.

    我現在邀請 Murray 主席上台。

  • Allan Murray - Chairperson

    Allan Murray - Chairperson

  • Good morning. How are you? How was the coffee? Good. My coffee was a bit like that, so. But a welcome in the country, particularly in this country, has been subject to a lot of criticism particularly on the right and particularly on the left, and there's no middle ground.

    早安。大家好嗎?咖啡如何?很好。我的咖啡也差不多是那樣,所以。不過,「在國土上的歡迎」,特別是在這個國家,一直受到許多批評,尤其來自右派,也尤其來自左派,而且沒有中間地帶。

  • But if you are wanting to be welcomed by First Nations people, particularly here in Sydney, New South Wales and Australia, you do the right thing by acknowledging First Nation. But I want to pay respects to the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation.

    但如果你希望由第一民族的人來歡迎你,特別是在雪梨、新南威爾斯以及澳洲,你就應該做對的事——承認第一民族。但我想向 Eora 民族的 Gadigal 人致上敬意。

  • I don't know if you understand when it comes to sunrise and sunset. Sunrise comes from the east, then it travels and the sunlight travels all over, particularly Sydney region, and then New South Wales, then across all the different clans. There are something like in New South Wales there are 54 clans, across Australia there are over 500 different clans.

    我不知道你是否理解日出與日落的意涵。日出從東方升起,接著陽光一路移動、照耀各處,特別是雪梨地區,然後到新南威爾斯,再跨越所有不同的氏族。新南威爾斯大約有 54 個氏族,而全澳洲則有超過 500 個不同的氏族。

  • We're not as homogenous, not as one, we're as many. And that's the purpose is that you would have a different relationship from neighboring clans and in particular here in Sydney. There are no traditional owners here in Sydney. So the five local Aboriginal land councils become by default are the traditional custodians. So it means a lot that you understand the respect.

    我們並非同質、不是單一,而是多元。其目的在於,你會與鄰近氏族建立不同的關係,尤其是在雪梨這裡。雪梨這裡沒有傳統土地所有者。因此,五個地方原住民土地委員會在默認情況下成為傳統守護者。所以,你理解這份尊重非常重要。

  • We've been here for thousands and thousands of years and we want to continue to have that relationship with yourselves and to make sure, if you can, have a good dialogue and understanding and a commitment.

    我們在這裡已經數千、數千年了,我們希望能持續與各位維持這樣的關係,並確保——如果可以——有良好的對話、理解與承諾。

  • One of the things about us as a cohort First Nations people, we are the poorest, we are the poorest Australians and we don't see that wealth transfixed or trans-related to us because all the different legislative laws that have taken place since colonization of Australia. So I'm not going to delve in that because I think you know what I'm saying.

    作為第一民族的一個群體,我們是最貧困的——我們是澳洲最貧困的族群;而自澳洲殖民以來所施行的各種立法與法律,使我們看不到那份財富被固定或轉移到我們身上。所以我不打算深入談這點,因為我想你明白我的意思。

  • So with that, welcome to Sydney, welcome to all the delegates, welcome to all the investors, welcome to Sydney and I pay respects to the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. So with that, that's one thing about coming here, understanding the colonial aspects of Sydney, and that's what we've got. We've still got the colonial effects.

    因此,歡迎來到雪梨,歡迎所有代表,歡迎所有投資人,歡迎來到雪梨;並向 Eora 民族的 Gadigal 人致上敬意。也因此,來到這裡的一件事,就是理解雪梨的殖民面向——這就是我們所面對的。我們仍然承受著殖民的影響。

  • So with that, welcome to Gadigal land, Aboriginal land, always whilst always will be Aboriginal land. Thank you very much.

    因此,歡迎來到 Gadigal 的土地、原住民的土地——一直都是、也永遠會是原住民的土地。非常感謝。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Thank you to Chairman Murray for that welcome to Gadigal country. And good morning and good evening, and thanks very much for being here. As Rachel mentioned earlier, joined today by Peter Cunningham, our CFO; together with two other ExCo members in the audience, Jerome and Mark.

    感謝 Murray 主席對 Gadigal 國土的歡迎致詞。各位早安、晚安,也非常感謝各位蒞臨。如 Rachel 先前提到,今天與我一同出席的有我們的財務長 Peter Cunningham;現場觀眾席中還有另外兩位執行委員會(ExCo)成員,Jerome 與 Mark。

  • So I'll start with safety. And this half, we lost two of our colleagues, and I'll carry that with me. Nothing we report today means anything if our people do not go home safely. Safety is my first priority, it is Rio's first priority, and it will always be. Across the business, we are continuing to make the changes that we need to ensure our people stay safe.

    我先從安全談起。在這個上半年,我們失去了兩位同事,這件事我會一直放在心上。如果我們的人無法平安回家,那麼我們今天所報告的一切都沒有意義。安全是我的第一要務,也是力拓的第一要務,而且永遠都是。在整個業務中,我們正持續推動必要的改變,以確保同仁的安全。

  • Now, let me tell you where this business is heading. This has been a strong half with real momentum building month on month. We're running our assets harder and smarter. Moving fast, changing how we work, and today it's showing through in the numbers. I said at Capital Markets Day last December that Rio was entering a new era and becoming stronger, sharper, and simpler. Seven months on, I'm here to show the evidence.

    現在,讓我告訴各位這家公司將走向何方。這是一個強勁的上半年,真正的動能逐月累積。我們以更高強度、更聰明的方式運行資產。快速行動、改變工作方式,而今天這些已反映在數字上。我在去年 12 月的資本市場日曾表示,力拓正進入新時代,將變得更強、更敏捷、更精簡。七個月後,我在此向各位展示證據。

  • Now, two things drive everything we do: a relentless focus on both performance, and on returns for you, our shareholders. Everything else follows from that.

    現在,有兩件事驅動我們所做的一切:對績效的毫不妥協的專注,以及為各位股東帶來回報的專注。其他一切都由此而來。

  • Let me take you through it. There are three reasons why Rio is the mining and the metal business to own.

    我帶各位逐一說明。力拓之所以是值得持有的礦業與金屬企業,有三個原因。

  • Firstly, we have a leading exposure amongst diversified miners to the biggest trends of our time, electrification, AI and digital, together with traditional demand. Our commodities, copper, aluminum and lithium and iron ore sit right at the heart of these trends. These are the materials the world needs and Rio is positioned to supply them at scale.

    第一,在多元化礦商之中,我們對當代最大趨勢——電氣化、AI 與數位化——以及傳統需求,具備領先的曝險。我們的商品——銅、鋁、鋰與鐵礦石——正位於這些趨勢的核心。這些是世界所需要的材料,而力拓具備以規模供應的有利定位。

  • Second, along with the right commodities, we also have world-class assets. They are large, low cost and scalable, and we've got the balance sheet and the skills to monetize them. What makes Rio distinctive is this combination with its embedded growth, major projects tracking to plan and in several areas ahead.

    第二,除了正確的商品組合,我們也擁有世界級資產。它們規模大、成本低且可擴張,而我們具備資產負債表實力與技能,將其變現並創造價值。力拓的獨特之處在於這種組合:內嵌式成長、重大專案按計畫推進,且在多個領域進度超前。

  • Simandou is now more than three quarters complete. OT continues to ramp up and is achieving record production, lithium in-flight projects are advancing and the Rhodes Ridge study is progressing on track. This is a portfolio built for the decades ahead. Now we've talked about being more diversified and today we're delivering nearly 60% of EBITDA in the first half was delivered from copper, aluminum and lithium.

    Simandou 現在已完成超過四分之三。OT 持續爬坡增產並創下產量新高;鋰的在建專案正持續推進;Rhodes Ridge 的研究也按計畫進行。這是一個為未來數十年打造的投資組合。我們一直談到要更為多元化,而今天我們正在交付成果:上半年近 60% 的 EBITDA 來自銅、鋁與鋰。

  • Thirdly, and this is where I want to spend most of the time today, we are focused on driving outstanding performance. This is where we have a real opportunity to unlock our potential. These three strengths set us apart. And together, these are why we continue to deliver both industry-leading returns as well as growth. That means consistent shareholder payments, resilience through the cycle, and capturing market upsides.

    第三點——也是我今天想花最多時間談的——我們專注於推動卓越績效。這是我們真正有機會釋放潛力的地方。這三項優勢使我們脫穎而出。合在一起,這也是我們為何能持續交付產業領先的回報與成長。這意味著穩定的股東回饋、穿越景氣循環的韌性,以及掌握市場上行的機會。

  • Outstanding performance is what turns a great asset base into a great business. And today I'll flip things around in the pack because I want to talk more about our performance first before then coming to the macro.

    卓越績效,能把優秀的資產基礎轉化為優秀的企業。今天我會在簡報中調整一下順序,因為我想先多談我們的績效,之後再談宏觀環境。

  • Across the business, we're changing how we operate. This goes well beyond taking out costs, although we're doing that as well. We're building a more agile Rio Tinto, pushing decisions closer to the assets where our people have the accountability to act.

    在整個業務中,我們正在改變營運方式。這遠不只是削減成本,雖然我們也在做。我們正在打造更敏捷的力拓,把決策權下放到更接近資產的地方,讓我們的同仁在具備問責的前提下採取行動。

  • Our momentum is broad-based and you can see it in our first-half numbers. We grew copper equivalent production by 3% and free cash flow rose by 75%. And the strength of this performance meant we could deliver a 43% higher interim dividend with $3.4 billion.

    我們的動能是全面性的,你可以從上半年數字中看見。我們的銅當量產量成長 3%,自由現金流上升 75%。而這樣的績效強度,使我們得以派發高出 43% 的期中股利,金額為 34 億美元。

  • So let's focus on what's underpinning these operational results. When I launched our program to build a stronger, sharper, simpler Rio Tinto at Capital Markets Day last December, I told you I'd deliver $650 million in productivity benefits and we've delivered. We've already banked $870 million to the end of June.

    那麼讓我們聚焦於支撐這些營運成果的因素。去年12月在資本市場日我啟動打造更強、更敏捷、更精簡的力拓(Rio Tinto)計畫時,我告訴各位我將帶來6.5億美元的生產力效益,而我們已經做到了。截至6月底,我們已經累積實現8.7億美元。

  • I also told you that we would continue to grow the program. Again, we've delivered. Today I can announce we are targeting a year-end run rate of $1.8 billion, almost triple where we were just seven months ago and there is substantially more to go as our momentum grows. This is all consistent with creating an operating culture that underpins the strongest and most valued metals and mining business and then maintaining that into the future.

    我也告訴各位,我們會持續擴大這項計畫。同樣地,我們也做到了。今天我可以宣布,我們的目標是年底達到18億美元的年化運行率,幾乎是七個月前的三倍;而且隨著動能增強,後續仍有相當大的提升空間。這一切都與我們打造一種營運文化相一致:支撐最強、最具價值的金屬與礦業企業,並在未來持續維持。

  • I'll give you a bit more sense of what we've been doing. This is not a top-down exercise where we simply squeeze budgets. It's a structural change, with more than 80 large initiatives running at every level of the business. This is about how we manage contractors, how we source raw materials, how we invest in digital and innovation, how we structure our teams. It's about the people closest to the work finding better ways of doing it. This is the culture of excellence I want to embed at Rio, codified through our new management operating system.

    我再讓各位更了解我們做了些什麼。這不是自上而下、單純壓縮預算的作法。這是一項結構性變革,在業務各層級同時推動超過80項大型倡議。這關乎我們如何管理承包商、如何採購原材料、如何投資數位化與創新、如何組織團隊架構。這關乎最貼近工作現場的人找出更好的做法。這就是我希望在力拓內部深植的卓越文化,並透過我們新的管理營運系統加以制度化。

  • Let me walk you through a few examples. At OT, we have redesigned the way we approach underground development, harnessing data and speeding drawbell construction. This is accelerated production, helping to generate around $80 million in productivity improvements.

    我帶各位看幾個例子。在OT,我們重新設計了地下開發的作業方式,運用數據並加快放礦漏斗(drawbell)施工。這加速了產量提升,協助帶來約8,000萬美元的生產力改善。

  • In the Pilbara, we've generated around $55 million in annual benefits by removing redundant capacity through stronger system resilience, building on the changes we made to product strategy. And we've delivered around $40 million in annual savings across our Atlantic aluminum operations with a sharpened focus on contractor management. This follows a focused Kaizen looking to remove bottlenecks across all sites.

    在皮爾巴拉(Pilbara),我們透過更強的系統韌性移除冗餘產能,並延續我們對產品策略所做的調整,創造了約5,500萬美元的年度效益。同時,我們在大西洋鋁業務(Atlantic aluminum)透過更聚焦的承包商管理,實現約4,000萬美元的年度節省。這源自一項聚焦的改善(Kaizen),旨在移除各據點的瓶頸。

  • To me, this is what operational excellence looks like in practice. It's not about slogans. It's about thousands of people making better decisions every day. And our result-driven operating model gives us the right structure to maintain that momentum.

    對我而言,這就是營運卓越在實務上的樣貌。這不是口號。而是成千上萬的人每天做出更好的決策。而我們以成果為導向的營運模式,提供了正確的架構來維持這股動能。

  • Our drive to raise performance is unlocking our copper portfolio's potential. And since 2020, we've achieved industry-leading EBITDA growth while maintaining one of the lowest cost positions in the sector. And there is more to come as we target 1 million tonnes of copper by 2030.

    我們提升績效的推動力,正在釋放銅資產組合的潛力。自2020年以來,我們在維持業界最低成本位置之一的同時,達成了領先同業的EBITDA成長。隨著我們以2030年銅產量達到100萬噸為目標,未來還會有更多成果。

  • OT continues to ramp up towards 500,000 tonnes a year, while Kennecott is targeting 40% to 50% production growth. And beyond 2030, we have a compelling pipeline of high-quality opportunities, including both brownfield and greenfield sites. So we have industry leading copper growth today, a clear path to 1 million tonnes by 2030, an exceptional portfolio of options to continue creating value well into the next decade.

    OT持續爬坡,朝每年50萬噸邁進,而Kennecott的目標是產量成長40%至50%。此外,2030年之後,我們還有一條極具吸引力的高品質機會管線,涵蓋棕地與綠地項目。因此,我們今天擁有業界領先的銅成長動能,並有清晰路徑在2030年前達到100萬噸,同時具備卓越的選項組合,在下一個十年持續創造價值。

  • I've talked about how we're changing the way we work to drive outstanding performance across our assets. Let's look at the power of applying those principles across our full portfolio.

    我已談到我們如何改變工作方式,以推動資產的卓越表現。接著讓我們看看,將這些原則應用到整體投資組合所能帶來的力量。

  • We have a large, low-cost assets in all the right commodities, each has exceptional frontline teams with unique abilities. We're a leading low-cost copper producer at scale, the number one global iron ore producer, leading integrated Western aluminum producer, and the best pipeline of Tier 1 lithium options targeting 200,000 tonnes of capacity by 2028.

    我們在所有正確的商品領域都擁有規模大、低成本的資產,每一項資產都有能力獨特的一線團隊。我們是具規模的領先低成本銅生產商、全球第一的鐵礦石生產商、領先的西方一體化鋁生產商,並擁有最佳的第一級(Tier 1)鋰資源選項管線,目標在2028年前達到20萬噸產能。

  • Together, these Tier 1 assets are the engines of our business and they generated around 85% of our product group EBITDA last year. And as we continue to improve performance, these advantages only strengthen.

    合在一起,這些第一級資產是我們業務的引擎,去年貢獻了約85%的產品事業群EBITDA。而隨著我們持續改善績效,這些優勢只會更加鞏固。

  • Let me now go back to the macro and tell you about the markets we operate in.

    現在我回到宏觀層面,談談我們所處的市場。

  • Our portfolio gives us leading exposure among diversified miners to the biggest trends of our time, electrification, AI and digital, together with traditional demand. Starting with electrification. As you can see, up to 60% of the value of raw materials in electric vehicles comes from our commodities. Of particular to note is the ramp up in battery electric storage, critical for grid firming and managing the power demands of renewables and hyperscalers.

    相較於其他多元化礦商,我們的投資組合讓我們在當代最重要的趨勢上擁有領先的曝險:電氣化、AI與數位化,以及傳統需求。先從電氣化開始。如各位所見,電動車原材料價值中高達60%來自我們的商品。特別值得注意的是電池電力儲能的快速擴張,這對電網穩定、以及管理再生能源與超大規模業者(hyperscalers)的用電需求至關重要。

  • And then there's AI and digital. Up to 70% of the value of materials that goes into a data center comes from our commodities. The scale of investment is extraordinary. Hyperscalers' CapEx forecast to reach near US $1 trillion next year.

    接著是AI與數位化。資料中心所需材料的價值中,高達70%來自我們的商品。投資規模極為驚人。預計超大規模業者的資本支出(CapEx)明年將接近1兆美元。

  • And let's not forget traditional demand. Our commodities account for as much as 65% of the value of materials needed to build a modern office tower in a fast growing city. As India and the other economies continue to develop, we expect another construction wave as cities grow vertically. So if you want exposure to the major growth trends of our time, Rio Tinto is the business to own.

    也別忘了傳統需求。在快速成長城市中建造一棟現代化辦公大樓所需材料的價值,我們的商品占比可高達65%。隨著印度及其他經濟體持續發展,我們預期城市向上發展將帶來新一波建設浪潮。因此,如果你想掌握當代主要成長趨勢的曝險,力拓就是值得持有的企業。

  • And the question I ask myself every day, how do we capture even more of the opportunities ahead? The answer is what I've mentioned, driving outstanding performance, having the right assets in the right commodities, and ensuring we allocate capital with discipline because ultimately, capital efficiency and discipline is the bedrock of a resource business.

    而我每天都在問自己的一個問題是:我們如何把握更多前方的機會?答案就是我提到的:推動卓越績效、在正確的商品上擁有正確的資產,並以紀律配置資本;因為歸根結底,資本效率與紀律是資源型企業的基石。

  • We maintain a strong balance sheet with a single A credit rating. Every asset must justify its spot in the portfolio. And we rigorously allocate capital to projects that deliver value and returns to our shareholders, world-class projects like Simandou and OT, showcase that we can execute at scale across commodities and across countries.

    我們維持強健的資產負債表,並擁有單A信用評等。每一項資產都必須證明其在投資組合中的位置合理性。我們嚴謹地將資本配置到能為股東帶來價值與報酬的專案;像Simandou與OT這類世界級專案,展現我們能跨商品、跨國家以規模化方式執行。

  • Among our peers and against the wider industry, we've demonstrated leading performance on capital and schedule adherence. We're now reaching an inflection point as those investments start to generate cash.

    在同業之中以及相較於更廣泛的產業,我們已證明在資本運用與工期遵循方面具備領先表現。隨著這些投資開始產生現金流,我們正來到一個拐點。

  • Turning then to cash release. Our work to progress opportunities this year to release up to $5 billion of cash from our asset base is advancing.

    接著談現金釋放。我們今年推進相關機會的工作正在進展,目標是從資產基礎中釋放最多50億美元的現金。

  • And finally, before I hand to Peter, I want to revisit our interim payout of $3.4 billion. This 43% uplift illustrates how far we've come over the half. It reflects the benefits of the previous investments and it shows our continuing commitment to you, our shareholders, as we continue to build our momentum.

    最後,在我把時間交給Peter之前,我想回顧我們34億美元的中期派息。這43%的提升,說明我們在上半年取得了多大的進展。它反映了先前投資帶來的效益,也展現我們對各位股東的持續承諾,並將在我們持續累積動能的同時延續下去。

  • Now over to you, Peter.

    接下來交給你,Peter。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Simon. We've delivered a step change in our financial performance this half, supported by stronger commodity markets, particularly copper and aluminum, which now represent almost 60% of our EBITDA. However, this was not just a price story. As Simon mentioned, our productivity program is delivering.

    謝謝,Simon。在本半年度,我們的財務表現實現了躍升,受更強勁的商品市場支撐,尤其是銅與鋁,兩者目前合計約占我們EBITDA的60%。不過,這不只是價格的故事。如Simon所提到,我們的生產力計畫正在交付成果。

  • We have strong momentum and see substantial opportunity ahead of us. The earnings uplift has translated directly into cash, with free cash flow rising by 75%. And even with our increased capital investments, we were able to reduce net debt during the period.

    我們動能強勁,並看到前方有相當可觀的機會。獲利提升直接轉化為現金,自由現金流增加了75%。即使我們提高了資本投資,在此期間仍能降低淨負債。

  • In line with our usual practice at the interims, we're declaring a 50% payout for the dividend, delivering a 43% increase to our shareholders. These results demonstrate that we can deliver growth and shareholder returns at the same time.

    依照我們在期中一貫的做法,我們宣布股利採50%的派付比率,為股東帶來43%的增幅。這些結果證明,我們能同時實現成長與股東報酬。

  • Let's unpack EBITDA through our standard waterfall. Underlying EBITDA increased 28% to $14.8 billion. Now the improvement was driven by two distinct sources of value creation. Stronger commodity prices increased underlying EBITDA by $3.6 billion, with $2 billion from copper and $1.3 billion from aluminum. These more than offset the $1.5 billion of external headwinds, namely foreign exchange inflation and a rise in market-driven prices.

    讓我們用我們標準的瀑布圖來拆解 EBITDA。基礎 EBITDA 增加 28%,至 148 億美元。而這項改善是由兩個截然不同的價值創造來源所驅動。更強勁的大宗商品價格使基礎 EBITDA 增加 36 億美元,其中 20 億美元來自銅、13 億美元來自鋁。這些增幅足以抵銷 15 億美元的外部逆風,主要是外匯帶來的通膨以及市場驅動價格的上升。

  • Let me just touch on these movements in a bit more detail.

    我再更詳細地說明一下這些變動。

  • It's important to distinguish between those that are persistent, such as general price inflation, and those that are more temporary in nature, such as higher diesel and raw material prices following Middle East supply disruptions. We would expect the latter to reverse over time and therefore class them as temporary and one-off.

    重要的是要區分哪些是持續性的,例如一般性價格通膨;以及哪些較具暫時性,例如中東供應中斷後柴油與原物料價格上升。我們預期後者會隨時間回落,因此將其歸類為暫時性與一次性因素。

  • Turning to the controllables, these contributed a further $1.2 billion. And as Simon outlined earlier, we have already banked $870 million of productivity benefits. These directly correlate to deliberate management actions to structurally lower our cost base and improve volumes consistent with the full potential of each asset.

    再看可控因素,這些額外貢獻了 12 億美元。正如 Simon 先前所述,我們已經實現了 8.7 億美元的生產力效益。這些效益直接對應到管理層有意識的行動:以結構性方式降低成本基礎,並在符合各資產完整潛力的前提下提升產量。

  • Each initiative, like the three Simon mentioned earlier, attract through from inception through to delivery, into our financials and built into our guidance. In addition to our productivity program, our results are also benefiting from our growth investments, with higher copper and gold volumes from the ongoing ramp up at OT and our Argentinian lithium operations.

    每一項舉措(例如 Simon 先前提到的三項)都會從啟動到交付一路貫穿,反映在我們的財務表現中,並納入我們的指引。除了生產力計畫外,我們的成果也受惠於成長投資:OT 持續爬坡帶來更高的銅與黃金產量,以及我們在阿根廷的鋰業務營運。

  • There were, however, some offsets. Mining performance at Kennecott is expected to recover in the second half as geotechnical management activities conclude and access to planned mining areas is restored. However, following the furnace breach in late June, some metal sales and associated cash flows will shift into 2027 while remediation work is completed. And at IOC, production performance remain challenged by pit and asset health, resulting in reduced volumes.

    不過,也有一些抵銷因素。Kennecott 的採礦表現預期將在下半年隨著岩土管理作業結束、並恢復進入原計畫採礦區域後而回升。然而,由於 6 月下旬發生熔爐破損,在修復工作完成前,部分金屬銷售及相關現金流將延後至 2027 年。而在 IOC,受礦坑與資產健康狀況影響,產量表現仍具挑戰,導致出貨量下降。

  • The broader point is that while commodity prices remain important, creating value for shareholders is increasingly within our control. It will be driven by improving operational performance, delivering our growth projects successfully, and maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

    更重要的是,雖然大宗商品價格仍然關鍵,但為股東創造價值正愈來愈多地掌握在我們自己手中。這將由提升營運表現、成功交付成長專案,以及維持嚴謹的資本配置所驅動。

  • Let's have a look at the product groups.

    我們來看各產品組別。

  • Copper was the standout. EBITDA increased 84% and free cash flow more than tripled, reflecting stronger pricing and the continued ramp-up of OT. We continue to advance our next wave of growth, reaching key milestones of resolution and La Granja and expect to complete a feasibility study for Winu around year-end.

    銅是最突出的亮點。EBITDA 增加 84%,自由現金流超過三倍,反映更強勁的價格以及 OT 持續爬坡。我們持續推進下一波成長,在 Resolution 與 La Granja 達成關鍵里程碑,並預期在年底前後完成 Winu 的可行性研究。

  • We delivered an impressive iron ore result, achieving our highest first-half Pilbara production since the 2018 record and benefiting from resilient pricing. Productivity improvements offset exchange rate and diesel price headwinds, and we're on track to deliver full-year unit costs within guidance.

    我們交出亮眼的鐵礦石成績,達成自 2018 年創紀錄以來 Pilbara 上半年最高產量,並受惠於具韌性的價格。生產力改善抵銷了匯率與柴油價格的逆風,我們也正按計畫在全年交付落在指引範圍內的單位成本。

  • Simandou is progressing at pace. Construction of the SimFer mine and port is more than three quarters complete and we're building inventory across the system as we ramp up. The project remains a key source of future volume growth and portfolio value.

    Simandou 正以快速節奏推進。SimFer 礦山與港口的建設已完成超過四分之三,我們在爬坡過程中也正於整個系統建立庫存。該專案仍是未來產量成長與投資組合價值的關鍵來源。

  • Aluminum sustained its strong operational resilience. Smelting performed particularly well, which together with stronger markets, drove a 31% increase in EBITDA. Our commercial teams continue to navigate the evolving tariff environment.

    鋁維持強勁的營運韌性。冶煉表現尤其出色,配合更強勁的市場,推動 EBITDA 增加 31%。我們的商務團隊持續因應不斷演變的關稅環境。

  • And finally, lithium. Market conditions continue to improve, supported by stronger demand from battery energy storage. And on the growth front, we delivered Fénix 1B and Sal de Vida ahead of schedule. Rincon remains on track and we continue to evaluate our attractive expansion options.

    最後是鋰。市場狀況持續改善,受電池儲能帶動的需求增強所支撐。在成長方面,我們提前交付 Fénix 1B 與 Sal de Vida。Rincon 仍按計畫推進,我們也持續評估具吸引力的擴張選項。

  • Given our strong earnings and cash flow performance, I thought it important to remind you of our capital allocation framework. We expect our cash generation to keep improving as we deliver growth, productivity and cost reductions and we remain on track for a 3% CAGR copper equivalent production uplift to 2030 and a 4% CAGR reduction in unit cost.

    鑑於我們強勁的獲利與現金流表現,我認為有必要提醒各位我們的資本配置框架。隨著我們交付成長、生產力提升與成本降低,我們預期現金創造能力將持續改善;我們也仍按計畫在 2030 年前達成銅當量產量 3% 的年複合成長率(CAGR)提升,以及單位成本 4% 的年複合成長率下降。

  • Our first priority is sustaining replacement and decarbonization capital, which protects our strong cash flow base and strengthens the portfolio. We expect to spend around $7 billion to $8 billion a year here.

    我們的第一優先是維持性替換資本與去碳化資本支出,這能保護我們強勁的現金流基礎並強化投資組合。我們預期每年在此投入約 70 億至 80 億美元。

  • Next, shareholder returns. We paid out 60% of underlying earnings for 10 years. This provides you with cash flow today while keeping us disciplined with how we deploy residual capital. As Simon mentioned, we are progressing around $5 billion of cash release opportunities in 2026 with a broader pipeline exceeding $10 billion.

    其次是股東回報。我們已連續 10 年配發基礎盈餘的 60%。這讓各位今天就能獲得現金流,同時也讓我們在運用剩餘資本時保持紀律。如 Simon 所提,我們正推進 2026 年約 50 億美元的現金釋放機會,且更廣泛的管線超過 100 億美元。

  • These options provide flexibility to further strengthen the balance sheet, invest in value accretive growth and support shareholder returns. We will remain disciplined, pursuing only those opportunities that create value and align with our capital allocation priorities. In summary, we have a strong platform to deliver industry-leading returns, while at the same time investing in growth.

    這些選項提供彈性,可進一步強化資產負債表、投資於增值型成長,並支持股東回報。我們將維持紀律,只追求能創造價值且符合我們資本配置優先順序的機會。總結而言,我們擁有強健的平台,可交付領先業界的回報,同時也投資於成長。

  • Our CapEx guidance is unchanged, up to $11 billion in 2026 and 2027 before a reduction from 2028 to $10 billion in real 2025 terms. Sustaining capital is stable at around $4 billion a year. Replacement spend is fundamentally about strengthening the business, extending life and improving cash flows from our assets. Returns are high. We assess the current portfolio as delivering an average of 26% IRR.

    我們的資本支出(CapEx)指引維持不變:2026 與 2027 年最高至 110 億美元,之後自 2028 年起(以 2025 年實質價格計)降至 100 億美元。維持性資本支出穩定在每年約 40 億美元。替換性支出本質上是為了強化業務、延長壽命並改善資產的現金流。回報很高。我們評估目前投資組合的平均內部報酬率(IRR)為 26%。

  • By 2030, our plan includes delivery of a significant step up in Pilbara mine and port capacity, including commencing phase one of Rhodes Ridge; secondly, the upgrade of our bauxite system in Queensland; thirdly, extension of Kennecott beyond 2040 and OT development; and lastly, the ongoing modernization of our Canadian hydropower plants, which support our highly competitive aluminum smelters. Later this decade, we will benefit from a significant uplift from the performance of these world-class assets.

    到 2030 年,我們的計畫包括:大幅提升 Pilbara 礦山與港口產能(包含啟動 Rhodes Ridge 第一期);其次,升級昆士蘭的鋁土礦系統;第三,將 Kennecott 延伸至 2040 年以後並推進 OT 開發;最後,持續現代化我們在加拿大的水力發電廠,以支援我們高度具競爭力的鋁冶煉廠。在本十年稍晚,我們將受惠於這些世界級資產表現帶來的顯著提升。

  • For growth capital, copper dominates our future plans. For now, we will spend about $1 billion a year on lithium and completing Simandou by the end of 2027.

    在成長資本方面,銅將主導我們未來的規劃。就目前而言,我們每年將在鋰上投入約 10 億美元,並在 2027 年底前完成 Simandou。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. We were able to reduce net debt while funding $5 billion of CapEx and paying the 2025 final dividend of $4.2 billion in the half. The balance sheet is in very good shape and we have options to reduce net debt further.

    接著看資產負債表。在本期內,我們在投入 50 億美元資本支出並支付 2025 年期末股利 42 億美元的同時,仍得以降低淨負債。資產負債表狀況非常良好,我們也有進一步降低淨負債的選項。

  • We are committed to our shareholder returns policy and have established a 10-year record of paying at the top of the range. In line with our usual practice at the interims, we're paying out at 50% with a 43% uplift in the absolute dividend given the rise in underlying earnings.

    我們致力於股東回報政策,並已建立連續 10 年在區間上緣配發的紀錄。依照我們在期中(interims)的一貫作法,本次配發率為 50%;由於基礎盈餘上升,股利絕對金額提高 43%。

  • So let me leave you with three key messages.

    最後我想用三個重點訊息作結。

  • First, this has been an outstanding half. With strong operational performance across the portfolio, we captured the benefit of stronger markets while continuing to improve the business. Second, we have real momentum. Productivity, cost reductions and operating performance are translating into the financial results. And third, we have the financial strength to execute. The balance sheet is strong, cash flow generation is robust and our portfolio is weighted towards the commodities where we see the greatest long-term opportunity.

    第一,這是一個非常出色的上半年。在整個投資組合皆有強勁營運表現的情況下,我們掌握了更強市場帶來的效益,同時持續改善業務。第二,我們具備實質動能。生產力、成本降低與營運表現正轉化為財務成果。第三,我們具備執行的財務實力。資產負債表強健、現金流創造穩健,且我們的投資組合偏重於我們認為具最大長期機會的大宗商品。

  • That gives us the confidence to invest in disciplined growth and continue delivering attractive returns to shareholders.

    這讓我們有信心投資於具紀律的成長,並持續為股東帶來具吸引力的回報。

  • And now back to Simon.

    現在把時間交回給 Simon。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Thanks, Pete, and thank you to all for joining us. At Rio, we have a leading exposure to the biggest trends of our time, world-class assets in the right commodities, providing volume, resilience and upside. Relentless drive for outstanding performance, and we're making the changes we need to our business to make sure everyone goes home safely at the end of each day.

    謝謝你,Pete,也感謝各位加入我們。在力拓,我們在當代最重要的趨勢上具備領先的曝險,於合適的商品上擁有世界級資產,提供產量、韌性與上行空間。我們以不懈的動力追求卓越表現,並且正在對業務做出必要的改變,確保每個人每天結束時都能平安回家。

  • At Capital Markets Day, I told you there was much more to come. Today you can see momentum and growing confidence in our results, banked the $870 million in productivity benefits and almost tripling that run rate to $1.8 billion by the end of this year, advancing our growth projects at pace and paying an interim dividend of $3.4 billion to you, our shareholders. And I'm single-minded about continuing to deliver returns and growth because that's how we'll become the most valued metals and mining business.

    在資本市場日,我告訴各位還有更多內容即將到來。今天各位可以看到我們的成果帶來的動能與日益增強的信心:我們已鎖定(banked)8.7 億美元的生產力效益,並將該執行速率(run rate)在今年底前幾乎提高至三倍、達到 18 億美元;我們加速推進成長專案,並向各位股東支付了 34 億美元的期中股利。我將專注不移地持續交付報酬與成長,因為這正是我們成為最具價值金屬與採礦企業的方式。

  • So thanks for your attention and look forward to your questions.

    感謝各位的聆聽,期待各位的提問。

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動說明)

  • Paul Young - Analyst

    Paul Young - Analyst

  • Paul Young, Goldman Sachs.

    Paul Young,高盛。

  • Simon, Peter, well done on driving the productivity gains in the half. I commend you for that. Can we just talk about the gap between $870 million you've exited at the end of June and the $1.8 billion, the increase there. There's obviously three buckets here. There's OpEx, there's CapEx, there's some productivity-related cost out as well. So of that $1 billion increase, how do we actually think about the breakdown of that $1 billion increase?

    Simon、Peter,上半年推動生產力提升做得很好。我對此表示肯定。我們能否談談 6 月底你們已達成的 8.7 億美元與 18 億美元之間的差距,也就是其中的增量。顯然這裡有三個桶:有營運費用(OpEx)、有資本支出(CapEx),也有一些與生產力相關的成本移除。那麼在這 10 億美元的增量中,我們應該如何看待其拆分?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So it's important to exchange banked and the run rate. And so in some businesses where we've got a run rate, we've got to see some of those benefits come through. And there's obviously some transition costs as we make the changes that we need to our business.

    所以,區分已鎖定(banked)的效益與執行速率(run rate)很重要。因此在一些我們已建立 run rate 的業務中,我們還需要看到部分效益逐步反映出來。而且在我們對業務進行必要調整的過程中,顯然也會有一些轉換成本。

  • But on the breakdown, you want to talk to that, Pete?

    至於拆分部分,你要談談嗎,Pete?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Yeah. Paul, on the slide on our waterfall, we set out that breakdown between costs and volume there. The cost was about the $530 million and then the volume was the rest. I mean, this year I'd expect a very similar breakdown for the full year as we bring that through, but it is very dependent.

    好的。Paul,在我們瀑布圖那張投影片上,我們已列出成本與產量之間的拆分。成本約為 5.3 億美元,其餘則來自產量。我的意思是,今年在我們把這些效益落實到全年時,我預期整體拆分會非常相似,但也高度取決於情況。

  • I mean, this is bottom up and being driven by the business. So it will change, but that broad profile will continue.

    這是自下而上、由各業務單位推動的。所以會有變動,但大致的輪廓會延續。

  • Paul Young - Analyst

    Paul Young - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And can I ask a question on the aluminum business? I know we've got Jerome here and really it's around how the aluminum -- what the strategy is and how it fits into the $5 billion to $10 billion of monetization of non-core assets. I mean, just to talk through aluminum, the strategy really has been growing the bauxite business, growing or improving margins in Canada. You've got eight smelters in Canada. You've got six outside of Canada. We could actually be adding two more, one in Brazil and potentially one in Finland if that decision gets made next year.

    好的,很好。我可以問一個關於鋁業務的問題嗎?我知道 Jerome 也在現場,主要想問鋁業務的策略是什麼,以及它如何納入 50 億到 100 億美元的非核心資產變現計畫。就鋁來說,策略一直是擴大鋁土礦業務、在加拿大提升或改善利潤率。你們在加拿大有八座冶煉廠。在加拿大以外有六座。我們甚至可能再新增兩座,一座在巴西,另一座可能在芬蘭(若明年做出該決策)。

  • Arguably, some of your smelters are now more valuable, like Sohar and Oman, et cetera. But the aluminum business is fragmented. It doesn't seem to come up along conversations around the focus on streamlining this business. So I'm just wondering where it fits in as far as simplification and that strategy, considering that it appears you're looking to grow the business.

    可以說,你們的一些冶煉廠現在更有價值,例如 Sohar、阿曼等。但鋁業務相當分散。在聚焦精簡業務的討論中,似乎不太會提到它。所以我想了解,就簡化與策略而言它的位置在哪裡,尤其看起來你們還在尋求擴張該業務。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So as I moved into the role, we had a bit of a step back and really looked across our full business and the commodities we want to be in. And you've seen us simplify the business down to the three product groups and the four commodities. And we chose those commodities because we see those as the strongest in terms of growth going forward and reflecting our own position in those assets.

    所以當我接任這個職務時,我們稍微退一步,全面檢視了整個業務以及我們希望參與的商品。各位也看到我們把業務簡化為三個產品組別與四種商品。我們選擇這些商品,是因為我們認為它們在未來成長面最強,同時也反映我們在這些資產上的自身定位。

  • And so we've got the best aluminum assets in our view in the industry. We've got a list there of ways that we're looking to improve those business, improve the cost position of those business, as well as Jerome and his team driving performance within the existing business as examples on the slide today.

    因此,在我們看來,我們擁有業界最好的鋁資產。我們也列出多種方式,來改善這些業務、提升其成本競爭力;同時 Jerome 與他的團隊也在既有業務中推動績效提升,今天投影片上就有一些例子。

  • And I would say, and earlier this year, the whole of ExCo went out around the different operations around the world and did a Kaizen. And we spent a week in the operations, rolling up our sleeves, really to underline the importance that we focus.

    我也想說,今年稍早整個 ExCo 走訪了全球不同的營運據點並進行 Kaizen。我們在現場待了一週、捲起袖子投入工作,主要是為了強調我們聚焦的重要性。

  • I spent my week with Jerome in the aluminum business and just the system they have embedded for that continuous operational improvement, applying some of that elsewhere in the group is really liberating some advantages. And so we've got a great position across bauxite, alumina and aluminum. The question for us, and as you can see from the notes, how do we further strengthen that and build on it, given particularly the cap in China and you're seeing some of that smelter capacity start to build elsewhere.

    我那一週是和 Jerome 一起在鋁業務上;他們所建立的持續營運改善系統,把其中一些做法應用到集團其他地方,確實釋放出不少優勢。因此我們在鋁土礦、氧化鋁與鋁方面都具備很好的布局。我們要思考的是——各位也可從備註中看到——在中國產能上限(cap)的背景下,以及你也看到部分冶煉產能開始在其他地區擴建之際,我們要如何進一步強化並在此基礎上再發展。

  • James Redfern - Analyst

    James Redfern - Analyst

  • James Redfern, RBC.

    James Redfern,RBC。

  • The first question is just on the resolution copper project. Can you please provide an update on that and what the next steps are for the project and callus that we should be looking for?

    第一個問題是關於 Resolution 銅專案。能否請你提供最新進展,以及該專案接下來的步驟與我們應該關注的催化劑(catalysts)?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So the next step for resolution is drilling out the ore body. And so we've got rigs on site. We should be intersecting the ore body shortly. That's the next phase of that project, is to really characterize the ore body, that'll allow us then to make decisions around what the development path for that looks like.

    Resolution 的下一步是對礦體進行鑽探。我們已在現場部署鑽機。我們應該很快就會鑽遇礦體。該專案的下一階段,就是更完整地刻畫礦體特性,之後才能讓我們就其開發路徑做出決策。

  • We needed to get the land exchange to be able to get on the ground and do that work, and particularly learning from OT. We've got to make sure that we really understand the ore body characterization geotech to make the decisions we need on that project, and so that's the thing to watch for is as we move through that phase of the study.

    我們需要完成土地交換,才能進場開展這些工作;特別是從 OT 的經驗學到,我們必須確保充分理解礦體特性與岩土(geotech)條件,才能做出該專案所需的決策。因此值得關注的是,當我們推進到研究的這個階段時的進展。

  • James Redfern - Analyst

    James Redfern - Analyst

  • And my follow-up question is just on the potential $5 billion to $10 billion of asset divestments. Any comment you can make on that, please?

    我的追問是關於可能 50 億到 100 億美元的資產出售。你能否對此做任何評論?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Not progressing. I mean, you've seen really strong cash generation today. The balance sheet's in good place. And I probably refer to my comments around capital discipline and efficiency, the divestment program, $5 billion to $10 billion tracking. We'll make decisions about that and make sure that we get full value, and so targeting $5 billion of announcements this year as part of that broader program.

    目前沒有進一步進展。我的意思是,你們今天看到我們的現金創造非常強勁。資產負債表也處於良好狀態。我大概會回到我先前關於資本紀律與效率的評論:資產剝離計畫 50 億到 100 億美元正按計畫推進。我們會就此做出決策並確保取得完整價值;因此,作為更廣泛計畫的一部分,我們今年的目標是宣布 50 億美元。

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動說明)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動說明)

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. I believe we do have one question on the line. If we could go to that next, please.

    謝謝。我相信線上還有一個問題。如果可以的話,請接下一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

    Lachlan Shaw,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Lachlan Shaw - Analyst

    Lachlan Shaw - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a strong first half. I just wanted to start in the Pilbara. So just with the replacement mines, obviously they're progressing on track for the first time next year. How should we think about that in terms of characterizing impact on the portfolio Fe grade? And then I'll come back with my second question.

    恭喜上半年表現強勁。我想先從皮爾巴拉(Pilbara)談起。關於替代礦山(replacement mines),顯然它們正按計畫推進,預計明年首次投產。就投資組合的鐵(Fe)品位影響而言,我們應該如何看待與描述這件事?然後我再回來問第二個問題。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So the replacement projects, probably similar to the material we've got available to us at this point, Lachlan. The change in the Pilbara is really as we get into Rhodes Ridge. Obviously, Rhodes Ridge, significant ore body. As I've said a few times before, we'd love to be in it mining it today, but in some ways better ahead of us than behind. And so as we get into Rhodes Ridge, that's where some of that better grade material is.

    所以替代專案,可能與我們目前可取得的材料相當,Lachlan。皮爾巴拉的變化真正會在我們進入 Rhodes Ridge 時出現。顯然,Rhodes Ridge 是一個重要的礦體。正如我之前說過幾次的,我們很希望今天就能在那裡開採,但從某種角度來看,未來的好處比過去更多。因此,當我們進入 Rhodes Ridge 時,那就是一些品位更好的材料所在。

  • Now probably related to your question, the changes we made to product strategy has been putting the business in a much stronger position in terms of the flows through that business being able to stabilize and you can see that in the Pilbara unit costs in terms of the work Matt and the team being able to do.

    現在可能與你的問題相關的是,我們對產品策略所做的調整,使業務在流程運作上處於更強勢的位置,能夠穩定整個業務的流量,你也可以從皮爾巴拉的單位成本中看到這一點,這反映了 Matt 和團隊所能完成的工作。

  • Lachlan Shaw - Analyst

    Lachlan Shaw - Analyst

  • Great. Look, sort of related, and I guess this ties into the really good work you're doing on productivity but obviously, operating conditions in the Pilbara now are undergoing a little bit of change. First time in 30-odd years, we've got incremental unionization coming into more and more sites.

    很好。你看,算是相關的,我想這也連結到你們在生產力方面做得非常好的工作,但很明顯,皮爾巴拉目前的營運環境正在出現一些變化。三十多年來第一次,我們看到漸進式的工會化正在進入越來越多的場址。

  • How do you think about this in terms of your -- the potential to impact operations? And how should we think about the ability to manage that and mitigate some of these forces on a sort of short-, medium-term basis?

    你如何看待這件事對你們——對營運可能造成的影響?而我們又該如何看待在短期、中期管理並緩解這些力量的能力?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • In Australia and any jurisdiction we operate around the world, we obviously operate in accordance with the local terms and conditions. Our focus has been and continues to be how do we best work together with our employees to make sure that we have the conditions, safe, respectful workplaces, really listening to what people need in their day-to-day job to do those jobs better. And so that's delivered for us in the past. I think it's delivered for our business, it's delivered for our employees, it's delivered for the broader community around us.

    在澳洲以及我們在全球任何司法管轄區的營運地,我們顯然都會依照當地的條款與條件運作。我們的重點一直是、也將持續是:我們如何與員工最好地合作,確保我們具備安全、互相尊重的工作場所,真正傾聽人們在日常工作中需要什麼,讓他們能把工作做得更好。而這在過去為我們帶來成果。我認為這對我們的業務有利、對員工有利,也對我們周邊更廣泛的社區有利。

  • And that remains our focus, Lachlan, and we'll need to work through that in the years ahead. But that remains the focus of Matt and the team and Jerome and the team on this side.

    而這仍然是我們的重點,Lachlan,我們也需要在未來幾年持續把這件事走下去。但這仍是 Matt 和團隊、以及這邊 Jerome 和團隊的重點。

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • We've got one more question online so we'll do the second one before coming back to the room.

    線上還有一個問題,所以我們先做第二個,然後再回到現場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Baden Moore, CLSA.

    Baden Moore,CLSA。

  • Baden Moore - Equity Analyst

    Baden Moore - Equity Analyst

  • A few updates in recent weeks around 232 Tariffs in the US. I was interested in how you're thinking about investment into the [LE] sector off the back of that. How does it change your view on that market? Is it moving the dial at all? Or what would you need to see to be increasing investment into smelter capacity in the US?

    最近幾週美國關於 232 關稅有一些更新。我想了解你們如何看待在此背景下對 [LE] 產業的投資。這如何改變你們對該市場的看法?有讓你們的判斷產生任何變化嗎?或者,你們需要看到什麼,才會增加在美國的冶煉產能投資?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So if I take a comment on trade policy more generally, I mean, you have seen over the last few years increase in terms of trade policy and the effects on flows, strewn aluminum and across the commodity complex. And we need to be good at navigating that because that's likely to continue.

    如果我先就更廣泛的貿易政策做個評論,過去幾年你確實看到貿易政策的增加,以及其對流向的影響,涵蓋鋁材以及整個大宗商品領域。我們必須擅長在其中航行,因為這種情況很可能會持續。

  • In the aluminum business specifically, I think Jerome working together with commercial has done a fantastic job in terms of being able to move flows around to respond to policy changes. And so the impact on the business has been relatively modest, but we're certainly mindful of it as we look ahead and really needing to be able to respond nimbly to those changes to maximize the benefits and supply the customers that we need.

    就鋁業務而言,我認為 Jerome 與商務團隊合作做得非常出色,能夠調整流向以回應政策變化。因此對業務的影響相對溫和,但我們在展望未來時當然會留意,並且確實需要能夠靈活回應這些變化,以最大化效益並供應我們需要服務的客戶。

  • And so as we look forward to aluminum through to 2035, we see aluminum growing really strongly. I talked about some of the trends today, and so it's a great industry to be in. We need to make sure that we're set up to manage in the right way.

    因此,當我們展望到 2035 年的鋁市場,我們看到鋁將非常強勁地成長。我今天談到了一些趨勢,所以這是一個很好的產業。我們需要確保自己以正確的方式做好管理準備。

  • Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

    Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

  • Lyndon Fagan, JPMorgan.

    Lyndon Fagan,JPMorgan。

  • Simon, just wanted to touch on iron ore. So obviously very well run under your management quite recently, and now we've found an extra $400 million of productivity gains. And so I guess I'd just like to unpack what exactly that is. That's my first one.

    Simon,我想談一下鐵礦石。顯然在你最近的管理下運作得非常好,而現在我們又找到了額外 4 億美元的生產力增益。所以我想我想拆解一下那到底是什麼。這是我的第一個問題。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So as I've outlined earlier, across the [pro forma] -- and this is more than 80 initiatives, but really at its heart what it is making sure that people on the front line have the tools, the systems that they need and that accountability really sits at the front line to make better decisions. I'm sure iron ore is better run today and isn't that a good thing?

    如我先前概述的,跨越 [pro forma]——這不只是 80 項倡議,但其核心其實是確保第一線的人員擁有他們所需要的工具與系統,並且讓責任真正落在第一線,以做出更好的決策。我敢說鐵礦石今天的營運比以前更好,這不是一件好事嗎?

  • And we're making other changes to the business to really empower and liberate the front line. So those system flows I talked about in the Pilbara, that's really looking from mine all the way through to port. How do we maximize the efficiency of those system flows. You saw iron ore have one of its best halves, and there's no surprise in that, because the two are completely correlated.

    而我們也在對業務做其他改變,真正賦能並解放第一線。所以我在皮爾巴拉談到的那些系統流,就是從礦山一路看到港口。我們如何把這些系統流的效率最大化。你看到鐵礦石有史上表現最好的其中一個半年期,這並不令人意外,因為兩者完全相關。

  • And so I think Matt and the team have managed to park up something like 80 pieces of kit that we don't need to operate, which obviously flows through to safety. It flows through to cost savings as well. But as an example of when you get your system flows more consistent and stronger, actually you can liberate some capacity. Part of the savings I outlined today is about stopping redundant plant as we choke feed the other plants.

    因此我認為 Matt 和團隊已經能把大約 80 件我們不需要用來營運的設備停放起來,這顯然會反映在安全上。也會帶來成本節省。但這是一個例子:當你的系統流更一致、更強健時,實際上你可以釋放出一些產能。我今天提到的部分節省,是關於在我們對其他工廠進行限量供料時,停止多餘的廠房。

  • Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

    Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

  • Next one I had was on Kennecott side. So obviously officially ends in 2032, but work well underway on a life extension, just wondering what is needed to FID that project and whether you can share some more details about what it looks like beyond 2032?

    我下一個問題是關於 Kennecott。所以顯然官方是 2032 年結束,但延長礦山壽命的工作已在順利推進中,我想知道要做出該專案的 FID(最終投資決策)需要什麼,以及你是否能分享一些 2032 年之後的更多細節?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So progressing it at pace, we're well into that work and so that decision will be coming in the not too distant future and extends it out into the 2040s, and so looking very promising. We've got a bit more work to go in terms of what the co-commitments around that look like. Obviously, the de-weighting of the wall and the geotech associated is also supporting what that looks like moving forward.

    我們正加速推進,已經深入展開那項工作,因此該決策在不久的將來就會到來,並把年限延伸到 2040 年代,看起來非常有前景。就相關的共同承諾(co-commitments)具體會是什麼樣子,我們還有一些工作要做。顯然,邊坡卸重以及相關的岩土工程(geotech)也在支持未來推進的方案。

  • Kate McCutcheon - Analyst

    Kate McCutcheon - Analyst

  • Kate McCutcheon, Bank of America.

    Kate McCutcheon,美國銀行。

  • In the result, we had the new disclosure around the tax dispute in Mongolia from the prior years and I think we're now up to about $900 million if we put everything together, how do we think about this moving forward? Obviously, optically, that's not a great place to be. Are there any more decision points to work through or anything you can talk to there?

    在這次業績中,我們看到新增揭露了蒙古先前年度的稅務爭議,我想如果把所有項目加總,現在大約到 9 億美元。我們該如何看待未來的發展?顯然從觀感上來說,這不是一個很好的狀態。接下來還有任何決策節點需要處理,或你能談談的事項嗎?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So some of the changes you've seen announced around Mongolia were embedded as part of that investment decision, looking at the shareholder alone got revisited periodically.

    所以你看到關於蒙古所宣布的一些變更,是作為那項投資決策的一部分而內嵌其中的,並且就股東層面而言也會定期重新檢視。

  • I think the thing to take away from it, we continue to engage closely with the Mongolian government and we'll continue to resolve things that need to be resolved as part of that project, and so really happy with the way that project continues to ramp up. It's going to be a fantastic asset for us for many, many decades, and we need to make sure that we have strong community support, including with the Mongolian government, and so we'll continue those discussions as we go forward.

    我認為要帶走的重點是:我們會持續與蒙古政府保持密切互動,並會持續解決該專案需要解決的事項;因此我們對該專案持續爬坡增產的進展非常滿意。這將在未來許多、許多個十年成為我們非常出色的資產,我們需要確保擁有強而有力的社區支持,包括蒙古政府在內,因此我們會在往前推進時持續這些討論。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • And Kate, clearly on the tax, there's a formal arbitration process there to solve it, so that is moving forward through that formal process.

    另外 Kate,關於稅務部分,確實有一個正式的仲裁程序來解決,所以目前正透過該正式程序向前推進。

  • Glyn Lawcock - Analyst

    Glyn Lawcock - Analyst

  • Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey.

    Glyn Lawcock,Barrenjoey。

  • Simon, Peter, I'm pretty sure you chose your words pretty carefully today. Simon, you said significantly more to come post the end of this decade on the $1.8 billion cost out. And then Peter said you've got real momentum.

    Simon、Peter,我很確定你們今天用詞都相當謹慎。Simon,你說在本十年結束後,針對 18 億美元的降本還會有「顯著更多」的空間。然後 Peter 說你們已經有真正的動能。

  • Can you maybe try and give us a little bit more insight into what lies beyond '26. I know you've got the 3% volume growth, 4% unit cost reduction, but can you help us think about where this journey gets us to? I know you've reluctantly been unwilling to give some numbers.

    你能否再多給我們一些關於「26」之後會是什麼樣子的洞見?我知道你們有3%的銷量成長、4%的單位成本降低,但你能幫助我們思考這段旅程最終會把我們帶到哪裡嗎?我知道你一直不太情願提供一些數字。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • There's a plethora of numbers today, Glyn, and I do always try and choose words carefully. I think you've got to go back to what we're talking about. I mean, as I've tried to articulate today, this isn't just about squeezing budgets or cutting work that we need to do, and that is top of mind. We've thought carefully about programs in the past which have done good things, but also sometimes we've stopped doing work that we needed to do for the business. And, asset management is one that pulls to mind on some of that capital spend.

    Glyn,今天有非常多的數字,而我也一直盡量謹慎選詞。我認為你得回到我們正在談的核心。我的意思是,正如我今天試著闡述的,這不只是擠壓預算或削減我們需要做的工作,而這點是我們最優先考量的。我們過去也仔細思考過一些計畫,它們確實做了好事,但有時候我們也因此停止做一些對業務而言其實必須做的工作。而資產管理就是其中一個會讓人想到、在部分資本支出上曾出現這種情況的例子。

  • And so what we've got to do is drive the culture of continuous improvement and then find ways of embedding that so it's codified and systemized. And so that's why we're talking about the management operating system because we see that as a way of really simplifying people's work, making sure it's really clear, what are the requirements or the distinctive characteristics. How do we run businesses within Rio. And that's the work that we've been doing and seeing huge benefits from that.

    因此我們必須推動持續改善的文化,並找到把它內嵌進去的方法,使其被制度化、系統化。這也是為什麼我們在談管理營運系統,因為我們把它視為真正簡化大家工作的一種方式,並確保要求或差異化特徵非常清楚。我們如何在力拓內部經營各項業務。這就是我們一直在做的工作,而且我們已從中看到巨大的效益。

  • We need to embed that in each and every business. And so the run rate you've seen today, we're really confident of through this year. You've seen the money we've already banked. And I say there's significantly more to go because sitting behind these numbers is all the projects that are flowing through, some of which you can see in the numbers, some of which are going to flow through in the years ahead. So this isn't a 6-month or a 12-month project. This is a change in the way that we do our work.

    我們需要把這套做法落實到每一個業務單位。因此,你今天看到的運行水準(run rate),我們對今年能達成非常有信心。你也看到我們已經落袋的金額。而我說還有顯著更多可做,因為這些數字背後有所有正在推進的專案,其中一些你已能在數字中看到,另一些則會在未來幾年逐步反映出來。所以這不是一個6個月或12個月的專案。這是一種我們做事方式的改變。

  • Glyn Lawcock - Analyst

    Glyn Lawcock - Analyst

  • I sidestep, Simon. But $1.2 billion this year versus last year is the target. So can that momentum be sustained, like real momentum to Peter's words, another $1.2 billion the following year? Or does it start to get harder?

    我先岔開一下,Simon。但今年相較去年,目標是12億美元。那麼這股動能能否持續?就像Peter所說的那種真正的動能,下一年再來12億美元?還是會開始變得更難?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • The program will mature and so inevitably you start with some of the decisions in front of you. I think for us there's two bits. There is maintaining the momentum on the increase, but also making sure that we sustain and maintain it going forward because if you embed it in the way people work and you embed it in the culture, then on no doubt that our people, and we've got fantastic people across the business. They'll find better ways of doing things. We just need to take the barriers out of the way to allow our people to do it.

    這個計畫會逐步成熟,因此不可避免地,一開始你會先從眼前的一些決策著手。我認為對我們而言有兩個面向。一是維持提升的動能,二是確保我們能在未來持續並維持成果;因為如果你把它內嵌到人們的工作方式中、內嵌到文化裡,那毫無疑問,我們的人——而我們在各個業務都有非常優秀的人才——他們會找到更好的做事方法。我們只需要把障礙移開,讓我們的人能做到。

  • Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

    Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

  • Rahul Anand, Morgan Stanley.

    Rahul Anand,摩根士丹利。

  • So I just want to go back perhaps to the copper business. So obviously, Lyndon talked to you a bit about Kennecott. Beyond 2030, Kennecott becomes increasingly important to extend, mainly to have good copper momentum.

    我想回到銅業務這一塊。顯然,Lyndon已經跟你談了一些關於Kennecott的情況。2030年之後,Kennecott在延長礦山壽命方面變得愈來愈重要,主要是為了維持良好的銅成長動能。

  • So I guess my question is in two parts. Firstly, you've had a bit of unpredictability at the asset and Apex is the next one that comes up beyond 2030. So in that development, how can you derisk that to make sure that you have much more predictable production profile? Smelter perhaps needs a bit of work there as well in terms of predictability.

    所以我想我的問題分成兩部分。第一,你們在該資產上曾有一些不可預測性,而Apex是2030年之後下一個會浮現的項目。那麼在這個開發上,你們要如何去風險化(derisk),以確保你們的產量曲線更可預測?冶煉廠在可預測性方面可能也需要做一些工作。

  • But then I guess the second part of the question is are there brownfield opportunities that the market doesn't see within the portfolio for copper or beyond resolute -- absolutely, because that's not brownfield. But -- or do you need to solidify that by doing inorganic moves to kind of have a clearer path beyond 2030 in terms of your growth?

    但我想第二部分是:在銅的投資組合中,是否存在市場看不到的棕地機會,或是在Resolute之外——當然,因為那不是棕地。但——或者你們是否需要透過一些外延式(inorganic)的動作來鞏固,讓2030年之後的成長路徑更清晰?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So the great things about Tier 1 assets is the optionality they provide and it's true in copper and hence we've got the 1 million tonnes by 2030, really building off the ramp up at OT [40 to 50] production growth at KUC. In terms of KUC, and I want to start by talking about safety, obviously fatality there earlier in the year, significant impact on the business and the team, and really a moment in that business to reflect on where we were and what we needed to do to make sure that that business operate safely.

    一級資產(Tier 1 assets)的優點在於它們提供的選擇性(optionality),在銅業務上也是如此;因此我們提出到2030年達到100萬噸,主要是建立在OT的爬坡增產,以及KUC產量成長[40到50]的基礎上。談到KUC,我想先從安全開始說起;顯然今年稍早那裡發生了死亡事故,對業務與團隊造成重大影響,也讓該業務有一個反思的時刻:我們當時處於什麼狀態,以及我們需要做什麼,才能確保該業務能安全運作。

  • I think the teams responded well, seeing that in underlying performance, and they need to build on that as we look forward to some of the decisions coming at us in the near term, like the Apex extension of life. As I said, that'll take it out to 2040.

    我認為團隊的回應做得不錯,從基礎表現中也看得出來;而在我們展望近期即將面臨的一些決策時,他們需要在此基礎上再接再厲,例如Apex的延壽。如我所說,那會把礦山壽命延伸到2040年。

  • Amazing ore body. We'll certainly look and continue to look for ways we can supplement that. Obviously, the underground project as well is progressing. It is a real strategic card for us having a smelter in the US, one of only two in the US, and so thinking about ways that we best monetize that.

    礦體非常出色。我們當然會尋找並持續尋找能補充它的方法。顯然,地下項目也在推進中。在美國擁有一座冶煉廠對我們而言是一張真正的戰略牌——美國僅有兩座——因此我們也在思考如何以最佳方式將其價值變現。

  • Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

    Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

  • And in terms of the other brownfields opportunities within any other assets that you'd like to call out, does OT have perhaps flexibility in the mine plan that helps you bring forward a bit of copper from later years? Or is there anything you'd like to highlight beyond inorganic opportunities?

    至於你想點名的其他資產中的棕地機會,OT在礦山計畫上是否可能有彈性,能把部分原本在後期年度的銅產量提前?或者除了外延式機會之外,你還想強調什麼?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • No. See, I mean, the focus for OT needs to fairly and squarely be on continuing that ramp up. It's that singular focus. And I've talked about some of the examples today on harnessing data to drive drawbell development. That's flowing through in terms of the ramp up, and so that's where the team's primary focus is. We're obviously looking beyond that in terms of what that next sequence of developments looks like.

    沒有。你看,我的意思是,OT的重點必須非常明確地放在持續爬坡增產上。就是這個單一焦點。我今天也談到一些例子,像是運用數據來推動出礦漏斗(drawbell)開發。這些正在反映到爬坡增產上,因此這就是團隊的主要重點。當然,我們也在往後看,思考下一個開發序列會是什麼樣子。

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • Any further questions here in the room? I believe we have no further questions online.

    現場還有其他問題嗎?我相信線上也沒有其他問題了。

  • Lyndon, second round. We'll go with that for a while, a few more minutes.

    Lyndon,第二輪。我們再進行一會兒,還有幾分鐘。

  • Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

    Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

  • I'll just add one more, thanks. Just back to resolution, to what extent do you think you'd have to build a smelter as part of that project, given the current administration's focus?

    我再補充一個,謝謝。回到Resolute,在目前政府施政重點的背景下,你認為作為該專案的一部分,你們需要建一座冶煉廠的可能性有多大?

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So that's one of the things we'll assess as part of the study. We expect that material to be processed in the US. Clearly smelter builds is one of the things we'll consider as part of the assessment of that project. We've got the KUC smelter as well, and so that's all ahead of us in terms of making a decision on which path to take.

    這會是我們在研究中評估的事項之一。我們預期該材料會在美國境內加工處理。很明顯,興建冶煉廠是我們在該專案評估中會考慮的選項之一。我們也有KUC的冶煉廠,因此在決定要走哪一條路方面,這些都還在我們接下來要做的決策範圍內。

  • Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Head of Investor Relations

  • Any final question here in the room?

    現場最後還有問題嗎?

  • Okay. Then thank you, all, for joining us today. For those online, we conclude our time with you now. And for those here in Sydney, I welcome you back to the room where you entered for a light refreshments with us today.

    好的。那麼感謝各位今天加入我們。線上的各位,我們現在結束與各位的時間。而在雪梨現場的各位,歡迎回到你們進來時的那個房間,今天我們準備了簡單茶點。

  • Thank you again and with that we conclude the presentation. Thank you.

    再次感謝,至此我們結束本次簡報。謝謝。

  • Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Simon Trott - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Thanks, all. Cheers.

    謝謝各位。乾杯。