力拓 (RIO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本期基礎 EBITDA 為 115 億美元,營運現金流 69 億美元,分別較去年同期小幅下滑(現金流 YoY -2%),但產量與銷售量分別成長 6% 與 4%,展現營運韌性
    • 維持 2025 年度產量、專案與投資指引不變,CapEx 指引維持 110 億美元,2026 年後每年 100-110 億美元,並持續 50% 中期股息配發率
    • 多元事業組合抵銷鐵礦價格下跌,鋁與銅貢獻提升,盤後市場反應未明顯異動,同業如 Glencore 亦強調成本控管
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Oyu Tolgoi 銅礦強勁增產,帶動銅產量 YoY +54%,全年維持 2028 年 50 萬噸產量目標
      • 鋁與鋁土礦產量創新高,鋁土礦 YoY +9%,Amrun 穩定超越設計產能
      • Simandou 高品位鐵礦專案提前至 11 月首船,2.5 年內逐步達 1.2 億噸產能
      • 多元化事業組合(銅、鋁、鋰)降低對鐵礦價格依賴,能源轉型推動相關金屬需求
    • 風險:
      • 鐵礦價格較去年同期下跌 13%,對 EBITDA 產生 20 億美元負面影響
      • 鋁、鋰等新興業務受國際貿易關稅與價格波動影響,需持續優化供應鏈與成本
      • 部分事業(如 IOC、RTIT)面臨市場需求疲弱與成本壓力,需持續提升效率
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 銅當量產量:上半年 YoY +6%,Q2 YoY +13%,主因 Oyu Tolgoi 強勁增產
    • 鋁土礦產量:上半年 YoY +9%,Amrun 穩定超標
    • 營運員工人數:過去 12 個月減少 2%,生產成長下仍有效控管人力成本
    • Kennecott 銅冶煉廠:成本基礎下降 10%,營運穩定性提升
    • 鋁事業單位營收:單位價格 YoY +14%,扣除關稅後仍 YoY +6%,ROCE 翻倍
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 年營收預估未明確揭露,維持多元成長動能
    • 毛利率預估未明確揭露,但強調鐵礦、鋁、銅三大事業群維持雙位數 ROCE
    • 2025 年 CapEx 指引 110 億美元,2026 年後每年 100-110 億美元,含 Arcadium 併購整合
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Simandou 專案提前出貨,未來 2.5 年產能如何爬升?有何專案管理學習?
      A: 首船 11 月,2.5 年內分兩階段達 1.2 億噸產能。與中國合作夥伴學到工程標準化、承包商執行力,未來將推廣至其他專案。
    • Q: 美國銅關稅政策對 Kennecott 及美國銅礦機會有何影響?
      A: Kennecott 為美國僅有兩座銅冶煉廠之一,關稅將立即提升獲利。美國政府亦積極推動本土銅礦開發,Resolution Copper 專案進入新階段。
    • Q: Oyu Tolgoi 蒙古政府換屆、稅務爭議及礦權轉移進度?
      A: 與新舊政府關係良好,礦權轉移對短期產量影響有限,稅務爭議進入國際仲裁,預期有正面結果。
    • Q: 鐵礦產品降等、產品線簡化對營收與成本有何影響?
      A: 新規格出貨初期反應良好,與客戶協調順利。產品簡化短期降低成本,長期有助提升產能與資本效率。
    • Q: 鋰業務信心來源?Arcadium 併購後資產如何評估?
      A: Rincon 運營成本約 4,500 美元/噸,資本強度 43,000 美元/噸,DLE 技術環境衝擊小。拉美資產最具價值,加拿大專案持續評估。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • So a warm welcome to everyone both here in the room and for those joining us remotely. We are pleased to be here today with our CEO, Jakob Stausholm; and CFO, Peter Cunningham to present to you our 2025 half year results. This will be followed by a Q&A session. Important, there are no planned fire evacuations today. If you hear the alarm, please follow instructions from the fire wardens here at the London Stock Exchange.

    因此,我們熱烈歡迎在場的各位以及遠程參加的各位。今天我們很高興能與我們的執行長 Jakob Stausholm 和財務長 Peter Cunningham 一起在這裡向大家介紹我們 2025 年上半年的業績。接下來是問答環節。重要的是,今天沒有計劃進行火災疏散。如果您聽到警報,請遵循倫敦證券交易所消防員的指示。

  • With that, I would like to invite Jakob to the stage.

    接下來,我想邀請雅各上台。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. Thank you, Rachel. Good morning, good evening to everyone joining us in person or online. I'd like to start by acknowledging and paying my respects to all traditional owners and First Nations people who host our operations around the world. It's great to be in London today.

    是的。謝謝你,Rachel。各位現場或線上參加我們的活動的朋友早安、晚上好。首先,我要向在世界各地承辦我們業務的所有傳統所有者和原住民表示感謝和敬意。今天能來到倫敦真是太好了。

  • I am so proud of the first half financial results we are presenting today. In my time with Rio Tinto, we have had periods with higher prices, but these sets of results are the strongest demonstrating real momentum in improving operational performance, real value from a more diversified portfolio and excellence in unlocking growth projects.

    我對我們今天公佈的上半年財務表現感到非常自豪。在我任職力拓期間,我們經歷過價格較高的時期,但這些業績最有力地證明了營運績效改善的真正勢頭、更多元化投資組合的真正價值以及在解鎖成長項目方面的卓越表現。

  • This is allowing us to deliver far resilient financial performance despite lower iron ore prices and a tough start to the year with four cyclones in the Pilbara. Importantly, we are delivering on our strategy, which we set out at our investor seminar in December last year. We remain on track for this year's guidance on production, projects and investments and on our strong midterm production growth. We now have a solid foundation in place to drive ongoing efficiency and we have a diverse pipeline of growth options for the future.

    儘管鐵礦石價格下跌,今年初皮爾巴拉地區遭遇四起颶風襲擊,情況嚴峻,但我們仍能實現極具韌性的財務表現。重要的是,我們正在實施我們在去年 12 月的投資者研討會上提出的策略。我們仍將按照今年的生產、專案和投資指導以及強勁的中期生產成長計劃進行。現在,我們已擁有堅實的基礎來推動持續的效率,並且我們擁有面向未來的多樣化成長選擇。

  • When I first started as Chief Executive, I said it would take time to build a stronger Rio Tinto. In February 21, we introduced four objectives to unlock the potential of our business. Now 4.5 years later, we can see the positive impact of consistent progress against those objectives over time with strategic investments and best-in-class project execution driving profitable growth.

    當我剛擔任執行長時,我說過打造更強大的力拓需要時間。21年2月,我們提出了四個目標來釋放我們業務的潛力。如今,4.5 年過去了,我們可以看到,隨著時間的推移,這些目標的持續進展產生了積極影響,策略投資和一流的專案執行推動了獲利成長。

  • Our copper equivalent production was up 13% in the second quarter year-on-year, making a 6% increase in the first half. This is led by the strong ramp up of Oyu Tolgoi. At last year's investor seminar, we indicated 50% growth. I'm proud to report the team hit 54% in the first half year-on-year. Excitingly, our bauxite production also hit a new record for the half with 9% growth.

    我們的銅當量產量第二季年增13%,上半年成長6%。這是由奧尤陶勒蓋 (Oyu Tolgoi) 的強勁成長所致。在去年的投資人研討會上,我們提出了50%的成長。我很自豪地報告,團隊上半年的完成率與去年同期相比達到了 54%。令人興奮的是,我們的鋁土礦產量也創下了半年新高,成長了9%。

  • With now Amrun consistently performing above its nameplate capacity. This has been driven by really good implementation of the safe production system. And at Simandou, we are accelerating the first shipment of high-grade ore to November and will be focused on safely ramping up to full production over the following 2.5 years.

    目前,Amrun 的產能一直超出其額定容量。這是得益於安全生產體系的良好實施。在西芒杜,我們將第一批高品位礦石的裝運時間提前到11月,並將專注於在接下來的兩年半內安全地實現滿載生產。

  • These are just some of the highlights across our diverse portfolio showcasing our project building expertise and the talent of our people. Of course, this progress would not be possible without a strong social license to operate. Just last month, I was fortunate to be in the Pilbara in Western Australia to officially open our new Western range mine.

    這些只是我們多元化投資組合中的一些亮點,展示了我們的專案建立專業知識和員工的才華。當然,如果沒有強而有力的社會許可,這種進步是不可能實現的。就在上個月,我有幸在西澳大利亞的皮爾巴拉正式開啟了我們新的西部山脈礦場。

  • This is our first project with a codesigned social, cultural and heritage management plan with the Yinhawangka Traditional Owners. Being on country together with yet another reminder of me about the importance of social license. This is a strong set of results for the first half year. Our strategy is delivering. And as Peter will share, we're growing while improving cost discipline.

    這是我們與 Yinhawangka 傳統所有者共同製定社會、文化和遺產管理計劃的第一個項目。身處鄉村,這再次提醒了我社會許可的重要性。這是上半年的強勁業績。我們的戰略正在實現。正如彼得所說,我們不斷成長,同時也改善了成本紀律。

  • I'm proud that our cash generation is largely the same as last year despite a drop of $14 per tonne the iron ore price. This demonstrates the strength of our diverse portfolio. We're much less dependent on iron ore price with a growing contribution from our aluminum and copper businesses. and it highlights the excellent work from our Pilbara operations to recover so strongly from the cyclones in the first quarter by delivering the best production for a second quarter since I joined the company.

    我很自豪,儘管鐵礦石價格每噸下跌了 14 美元,但我們的現金產生量基本上與去年相同。這體現了我們多元化投資組合的實力。我們對鐵礦石價格的依賴程度大大降低,鋁和銅業務的貢獻日益增加。這凸顯了皮爾巴拉業務的出色表現,他們在第一季從颶風中強勁復甦,實現了自我加入公司以來第二季度的最佳產量。

  • Our financial performance is very resilient with underlying EBITDA of $11.5 billion and an operating cash flow of $6.9 billion. Our net operating cash flow decreased by just 2% while our production volume increased 6% and sales volume increased by 4% year-on-year. And we achieved this growth by maintaining a strong balance sheet and attractive returns to shareholders, which Peter will talk about further.

    我們的財務表現非常強勁,基礎 EBITDA 為 115 億美元,經營現金流為 69 億美元。我們的淨經營現金流僅下降了2%,但產量年增了6%,銷量較去年同期成長了4%。我們透過保持強勁的資產負債表和對股東的可觀回報實現了這一增長,彼得將進一步討論這一點。

  • We can expect more global volatility, but our strategy focus on our four objectives and our diverse set of Tier 1 assets enables us to be extremely resilient in an uncertain world and capture new opportunities as they arise. As you will be able to see, despite complex tariff issues in aluminum, the return on capital doubled. Converting opportunities into value, we are now building a track record of delivering projects on time and on budget.

    我們可以預期全球將會出現更多動盪,但我們的策略重點是四大目標,而我們多樣化的一級資產使我們能夠在不確定的世界中保持極強的韌性,並抓住出現的新機會。正如您所看到的,儘管鋁的關稅問題很複雜,但資本回報率卻翻了一番。將機會轉化為價值,我們現在正在建立按時、按預算交付專案的記錄。

  • I'll now hand over to Peter to take you through the financials.

    現在我將把時間交給彼得,讓他向大家介紹財務狀況。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Jakob, and good morning, everyone. Let's look at our very resilient financials. Once again, we've reported a clean set of results with a few differences between underlying and net earnings. I'd like to highlight three key points.

    謝謝你,雅各布,大家早安。讓我們看看我們非常有彈性的財務狀況。我們再次報告了一組清晰的業績,但基礎收益和淨收益之間存在一些差異。我想強調三個重點。

  • Firstly, with our improving operational performance, we saw further productivity gains. We've been particularly focused on our highest cash-generating businesses. I would like, in particular, to call out the progress made at Kennecott, which we spoke about in December last year. Secondly, we continue to see very stable operating cash flow driven by good discipline on costs and tight control over working capital despite the usual seasonality in the first half. Thirdly, our projects remain on track and are ramping up, in particular, OT. Overall, copper equivalent production was up 6%.

    首先,隨著營運績效的提高,我們的生產效率進一步提高。我們特別關注現金流最充裕的業務。我特別想指出肯尼科特會議所取得的進展,我們去年 12 月曾討論過這項進展。其次,儘管上半年出現了常見的季節性因素,但良好的成本控制和嚴格的營運資金控制仍推動了非常穩定的營運現金流。第三,我們的專案仍在按計劃進行,並且正在加速推進,尤其是 OT。整體而言,銅當量產量增加了6%。

  • So let's look at the numbers. In terms of underlying EBITDA, we offset the 13% lower iron ore price with a rising contribution from our copper and aluminum divisions. Bauxite was a particular highlight. Underlying earnings were down 16%, mainly due to the drivers of EBITDA, a higher interest charge following the Arcadian acquisition, and one-off increases in the effective tax rate.

    讓我們看看這些數字。就基礎 EBITDA 而言,我們透過銅和鋁部門的貢獻增加抵消了鐵礦石價格下跌 13% 的影響。鋁土礦是其中的一大亮點。基礎獲利下降了 16%,主要原因是 EBITDA、收購 Arcadian 後利息費用增加以及有效稅率的一次性增加。

  • Cash flow from operations was very consistent at $6.9 billion compared to $7.1 billion last first half and $7 billion in 2023, first half, while our share of capital investment rose to $4.5 billion. Following completion of the Arcadian acquisition in March, we ended the half with net debt of $14.6 billion. And we've maintained our practice of paying out 50% the interim ordinary dividend equating to $2.4 billion.

    營運現金流非常穩定,為 69 億美元,而去年上半年為 71 億美元,2023 年上半年為 70 億美元,而我們的資本投資份額則上升至 45 億美元。繼 3 月完成對 Arcadian 的收購後,我們上半年的淨債務為 146 億美元。我們仍維持派發 50% 中期普通股利的做法,相當於 24 億美元。

  • Let's now take a look at commodity prices. And I've talked about this before, but it's really important. Taking a longer-term perspective, moving the noise of short-term volatility and factoring in the impact of inflation, this chart shows rolling 12-month average prices for our key commodities rebased to 2025 real terms.

    現在我們來看看商品價格。我之前談過這個問題,但它確實很重要。從長期來看,消除短期波動的影響並考慮通貨膨脹的影響,該圖表顯示了我們主要商品的 12 個月滾動平均價格,並重新調整為 2025 年的實際價格。

  • Now we've indexed these and show the average of the 15 years is 100. In nominal terms, copper and aluminum may appear elevated, but in real terms, they're actually trading at around their averages since 2010. Iron ore and lithium are well below their historic averages.

    現在我們已將它們編入索引,並顯示 15 年的平均值是 100。從名義上看,銅和鋁的價格可能看起來較高,但從實際價格來看,它們的交易價格實際上處於 2010 年以來的平均水平左右。鐵礦石和鋰的價格遠低於歷史平均。

  • It's an important picture because it shows our financial results are not a product of elevated prices. And in fact, demand is soft in a lot of traditional segments, particularly property but is being offset by those driven by the energy transition.

    這是一張重要的圖片,因為它顯示我們的財務表現不是價格上漲的產物。事實上,許多傳統領域的需求疲軟,尤其是房地產,但卻被能源轉型推動的需求所抵銷。

  • Now like Jakob said, we're really starting to see the benefits from our diversified portfolio with higher volumes in copper, bauxite and aluminum, together with improved pricing, offsetting the iron ore price decline. Now of course, our Pilbara business continues to generate very strong margins and remains a stable foundation comprising 58% of group EBITDA. But last first half, it was 73%.

    現在,正如雅各所說,我們真正開始看到多元化投資組合的好處,銅、鋁土礦和鋁的產量增加,加上定價的提高,抵消了鐵礦石價格的下跌。當然,現在我們的皮爾巴拉業務繼續產生非常強勁的利潤率,並保持穩定的基礎,佔集團 EBITDA 的 58%。但去年上半年,這一比例達到了 73%。

  • Over the next few years, we expect to increasingly see our financials driven by the entire portfolio as growth projects ramp up and productivity improvements flow through. We are intensely focused on cost discipline. Operational employee numbers across the group have decreased by 2% over the last 12 months, which is impressive when set against the context of production growth this half.

    在接下來的幾年裡,隨著成長項目的增加和生產力的提高,我們預計我們的財務狀況將越來越多地受到整個投資組合的推動。我們非常注重成本控制。過去 12 個月,整個集團的營運員工數量減少了 2%,與今年上半年的生產成長相比,這一數字令人印象深刻。

  • In February, I talked about finding solutions to complex problems and how we can unlock value. Kennecott is a great case in point. We're now seeing much more stable operational performance. We've made substantial efforts to lower the cost base, achieving a 10% headcount reduction, changing contractor engagement, and driving operational improvements.

    二月份,我談到如何找到解決複雜問題的方法以及如何釋放價值。肯尼科特就是一個很好的例子。我們現在看到的營運表現更加穩定。我們做出了巨大努力來降低成本基礎,實現了 10% 的員工人數削減,改變了承包商的參與方式,並推動了營運改善。

  • Kennecott is well positioned to benefit as a cathode producer, one of only two active US copper smelters. We've also launched a business transformation program that our iron and titanium operations in Quebec as part of our asset productivity drive, and functional support costs for the group are tracking below 2022, a trend we expect to continue.

    肯尼科特作為陰極銅生產商,擁有良好的獲利優勢,它是美國僅有的兩家活躍的銅冶煉廠之一。我們還啟動了一項業務轉型計劃,作為我們資產生產力推動的一部分,我們在魁北克的鐵和鈦業務以及集團的職能支援成本將在 2022 年以下保持低位,我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

  • Now let's unpack EBITDA through our standard waterfall. This underlines the operating strength and financial resilience, I mentioned Earlier. Commodity prices were the biggest driver, netting out to $800 million negative. But note, the iron ore price impact was $2 billion negative.

    現在讓我們透過標準瀑布圖來解開 EBITDA。這突顯了我在前面提到的經營實力和財務韌性。大宗商品價格是最大的驅動因素,淨虧損達 8 億美元。但請注意,鐵礦石價格的影響為負20億美元。

  • In copper equivalent terms, sales were up 4%, which gave rise to a $700 million volume uplift. This is mostly driven by bauxite and copper with a ramp-up at OT and higher grades at Escondida. It more than compensated for the modest decline in iron ore sales, which we expect to recover in the second half given that Q2 shipments were constrained by port maintenance. Exploration and evaluation was $200 million lower, mainly a function of Rincon costs now being capitalized with underlying spend slightly below $1 billion for the full year, as we prioritize copper and lithium.

    以銅當量計算,銷售額成長了 4%,交易量增加了 7 億美元。這主要是由於 OT 鋁土礦和銅產量增加以及 Escondida 銅礦品位提高所致。這足以彌補鐵礦石銷售的小幅下滑,鑑於第二季的出貨量受到港口維護的限制,我們預計鐵礦石銷售量將在下半年復甦。勘探和評估費用減少了 2 億美元,主要是因為 Rincon 成本現已資本化,全年基本支出略低於 10 億美元,因為我們優先考慮銅和鋰。

  • Turning to cash unit costs. These were lower in aluminum and copper on a gross basis with efficiencies from the higher volumes from OT and Escondida. C1 copper costs, which decreased by 34%, benefited further from the higher gold credits, which we reflect in the price and volume variances for this analysis.

    轉向現金單位成本。由於 OT 和 Escondida 產量較高,鋁和銅的總量較低。C1 銅成本下降了 34%,進一步受益於黃金信用額度的提高,我們在本次分析的價格和數量差異中反映了這一點。

  • Overall, we're continuously improving on our costs with SPS giving us momentum and a safer operating environment. So after factoring in $600 million of other movements, mainly provision related, this brings us to a very resilient EBITDA of $11.5 billion.

    總體而言,我們在 SPS 的推動下不斷改善成本,並創造了更安全的營運環境。因此,在計入 6 億美元的其他變動(主要是與撥備相關的變動)後,我們的 EBITDA 達到了 115 億美元,非常有彈性。

  • On to the product groups. Iron ore remains our cornerstone delivering $6.7 billion of EBITDA. We saw good levels of productivity improvement with the highest Q2 production since 2018 and first tonnes from Western range, and we're now implementing our new product strategy, aligning sales to our system, as we continue to meet the needs of our customers. Unit costs were within guidance at $24.30 per tonne despite lower production and additional costs to recover from the four cyclones in Q1.

    轉到產品組。鐵礦石仍然是我們的基石,實現了 67 億美元的 EBITDA。我們的生產力得到了良好的提升,第二季度的產量達到了 2018 年以來的最高水平,西部地區產量首次達到噸位,我們現在正在實施新的產品戰略,使銷售與我們的系統保持一致,繼續滿足客戶的需求。儘管產量下降,且第一季四次氣旋災害導致復原成本增加,但單位成本仍在指導範圍內,為每噸 24.30 美元。

  • And as Jakob mentioned, aluminum continues its impressive record of stability, in particular, for smelting and bauxite. We took full advantage of stronger markets, leading to a step change and financial performance. Our commercial team were able to proactively flex the business to optimize our position in the wake of the changing tariff environment. And today, the Midwest premium is substantially offsetting the tariff.

    正如雅各所提到的,鋁繼續保持著令人印象深刻的穩定記錄,特別是在冶煉和鋁土礦方面。我們充分利用了更強勁的市場,實現了重大變革並取得了財務表現。我們的商業團隊能夠根據不斷變化的關稅環境主動調整業務以優化我們的地位。如今,中西部地區的溢價已大幅抵銷了關稅。

  • The main impact on our financials is the cancellation of the 10% Section 232 exemption Canada previously enjoyed. Copper was stronger still with EBITDA driven by higher prices and rising volumes, up more than 50% at OT, where we've retained our longer-term guidance of 500,000 tonnes a year by 2028. Unit costs are now guided lower, driven by disciplined cost control and strong production.

    對我們財務狀況的主要影響是取消了加拿大先前享有的 10% 第 232 條豁免。銅的走勢更加強勁,受價格上漲和產量增加的推動,OT 的 EBITDA 增長了 50% 以上,我們維持了到 2028 年每年 500,000 噸的長期目標。在嚴格的成本控制和強勁生產的推動下,單位成本目前處於較低水準。

  • Lastly, Minerals, we saw increasing operational stability at OIC and an iron entertain, we're focused on improving plant performance. But TiO2 volumes remain weak, reflecting continued weak market conditions. The integration of Rio Tinto Lithium is proceeding well following closure of the Arcadian transaction with Rincon now integral part of this business.

    最後,在礦產方面,我們看到 OIC 和鐵礦的運作穩定性不斷提高,我們專注於提高工廠的性能。但二氧化鈦銷量依然疲軟,反映出市場狀況持續疲軟。在完成 Arcadian 交易後,力拓鋰業與 Rincon 的整合工作進展順利,Rincon 現已成為力拓鋰業不可或缺的一部分。

  • I'd now like to return to iron ore as I'm often asked about the industry structure and the impact of Simandou, which will bring online about 120 million tonnes over the next few years from the two blocks. Now it's helpful to show our view of the iron ore industry and how the cost curve has evolved.

    現在我想回到鐵礦石話題,因為我經常被問及行業結構和西芒杜的影響,未來幾年西芒杜將從兩個區塊生產約 1.2 億噸鐵礦石。現在,展示我們對鐵礦石行業的看法以及成本曲線如何演變是有幫助的。

  • The red line shows the 2024 cost curve we forecasted back in 2018. It shows that we expect more production in the lower half of the cost curve. In reality, we've seen many more high-cost operators remaining in the market. The curve has therefore steepened relative to 2028 expectations with a larger proportion of high-cost producers than anticipated, compounded by inflation.

    紅線顯示的是我們在 2018 年預測的 2024 年成本曲線。這表明我們預計成本曲線下半部的產量將會增加。事實上,我們看到市場上仍有更多高成本營運商。因此,相對於 2028 年的預期,曲線變得更加陡峭,高成本生產商的比例高於預期,且通貨膨脹加劇。

  • As Simandou comes online, some higher cost production will probably be pushed out. But it's also important to note that going forward over the next 10 years, we expect that 40% of production from the majors needs to be replaced.

    隨著西芒杜銅礦的投產,一些成本較高的生產可能會被推遲。但同樣值得注意的是,展望未來 10 年,我們預期主要石油公司的 40% 產量需要被取代。

  • And finally, note the size of the contestable iron ore market is around 1.9 billion tonnes. And while China's steel consumption has plateaued, there is demand growth elsewhere in global steel markets, often supplied by Chinese exports. We therefore continue to expect an attractive industry structure into the future. Our approach to capital allocation remains very disciplined with no change to our well flagged CapEx guidance of around $11 billion in 2025 and $10 billion to $11 billion thereafter. This includes growth of around $3 billion each year with Arcadian now absorbed in our guidance.

    最後,請注意,可競爭鐵礦石市場的規模約為 19 億噸。儘管中國的鋼鐵消費量已趨於穩定,但全球其他地區的鋼鐵市場需求仍在成長,而這些需求通常由中國出口滿足。因此,我們繼續期待未來的行業結構具有吸引力。我們對資本配置的方法仍然非常嚴格,我們明確的資本支出指引保持不變,即 2025 年約為 110 億美元,此後為 100 億至 110 億美元。這包括每年約 30 億美元的成長,Arcadian 目前已納入我們的指導範圍。

  • We're due to complete Slavador and the Fenix expansion next year as we work through the phasing of the various lithium growth options. With the recent Pilbara replacement approvals, CapEx will be weighted to the second half of the year with major commitments, including the ongoing delivery of Simandou and construction of Rincon.

    我們將於明年完成 Slavador 和 Fenix 的擴張,同時我們正在分階段實施各種鋰成長方案。隨著最近皮爾巴拉(Pilbara)替代項目的批准,資本支出將集中在今年下半年,主要承諾包括正在進行的西芒杜(Simandou)項目交付和林康(Rincon)項目的建設。

  • Net debt has risen to $14.6 billion following completion of the Acadian transaction, a level comfortably in a range consistent with our commitment to a single A credit rating. All our debt metrics are in a reasonable place. This remains a strong balance sheet. Since 2021, we've invested to grow our production base through productivity improvements and capital expenditure. You'll see on this chart, how we have increased CapEx since 2019 and delivered four consecutive years of production growth following declines between 2018 and 2021.

    在完成阿卡迪亞交易後,淨債務已升至 146 億美元,這一水平與我們對單一 A 信用評級的承諾相符。我們的所有債務指標都處於合理水平。這仍然是一份強勁的資產負債表。自 2021 年以來,我們透過提高生產力和資本支出來投資擴大生產基地。您將在這張圖表上看到,我們自 2019 年以來如何增加資本支出,並在 2018 年至 2021 年期間產量下降後連續四年實現產量成長。

  • The rate of production growth gathered momentum in the first half of 2025. This is strengthening our cash flows, allowing us to absorb the effect of a lower iron ore price over the last few years and grow our cash flows in the future.

    2025年上半年產量成長率將加速。這增強了我們的現金流,使我們能夠吸收過去幾年鐵礦石價格下跌的影響,並在未來增加我們的現金流。

  • But the growth has not been at the expense of shareholder returns. Our commitment is unwavering. And in line with our usual practice, we've declared a 50% payout for the interim. We're now into the tenth year of our policy, which has proved to be highly successful and predictable. And this has been achieved while both maintaining a strong balance sheet and the commitment to shareholder returns.

    但成長並沒有以犧牲股東回報為代價。我們的承諾堅定不移。按照我們的慣例,我們宣布暫時支付 50% 的款項。我們的政策現已進入第十個年頭,事實證明這項政策非常成功且可預測。我們在保持強勁的資產負債表和致力於股東回報的同時實現了這一目標。

  • So to summarize, our operational performance is improving. Our projects are on track and ramping up. This is driving our copper equivalent production, which was up 6% this half and we're generating very stable operating cash flow. Our consistent strategy and diverse portfolio, we will ensure Rio Tinto remain strong in the short, medium and long term, while continuing to pay attractive returns.

    總而言之,我們的營運績效正在提高。我們的專案正在按計劃順利進行並不斷取得進展。這推動了我們的銅當量產量,今年上半年產量增加了 6%,我們產生了非常穩定的營運現金流。我們始終如一的策略和多元化的投資組合將確保力拓在短期、中期和長期保持強勁,同時繼續帶來可觀的回報。

  • And with that, let me pass back to Jakob.

    說完這些,讓我把話題轉回雅各身上。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. Thank you, Peter. As Peter highlighted, while some prices are well below the long-term average in aggregate, we have a very profitable business, and we are still facing an opportunity-rich environment. The world is growing and the energy transition, despite all what you might read in the newspapers, is moving us to electrification is really happening. Electricity demand is growing around 1.6 times faster than energy demand right now.

    是的。謝謝你,彼得。正如彼得所強調的,雖然一些價格總體上遠低於長期平均水平,但我們的業務利潤非常豐厚,而且我們仍然面臨著充滿機會的環境。世界正在發展,儘管你可能在報紙上讀到很多報道,但能源轉型正在真正推動我們走向電氣化。目前,電力需求的成長速度約為能源需求的 1.6 倍。

  • And the international energy agency predicts this will accelerate up to 6 times by 2035. As you can see here, demand for iron ore is stable. And due to the energy transition, demand for copper and aluminum are rising, and there's major growth in lithium, where we seek those 30% increase year-on-year.

    國際能源機構預測,到2035年,這一速度將加快6倍。正如您所看到的,鐵礦石的需求是穩定的。由於能源轉型,對銅和鋁的需求正在上升,鋰的需求也大幅成長,我們尋求年增 30%。

  • When we did our projections a year ago before buying Acadian, we knew there would be increasing demand for electrical vehicles. And despite less subsidies in various parts of the world, reality has actually exceeded our projections. The electrical vehicle is penetrating now on its own merit. Even more positive is the rather dramatic and I have to say, unexpected development of the stationary battery demand. It more than doubled over the last year as prices on those batteries have significantly reduced.

    當我們一年前在收購 Acadian 之前做預測時,我們就知道電動車的需求會增加。儘管世界各地補貼減少,但現實卻超出了我們的預期。電動汽車憑藉自身優勢正在不斷普及。更為正面的是,固定電池需求出現了相當顯著、甚至出乎意料的發展。由於這些電池的價格大幅下降,這一數字在過去一年中增加了一倍多。

  • Let's take a closer look at lithium. After a period of low prices, there has been a significant increase in the lease price over the last month. Prices are still much below the 15-year average. And as you can see, a large portion of the cost curve is still underwater.

    讓我們仔細看看鋰。在經歷了一段時間的低價之後,過去一個月租賃價格出現了大幅上漲。價格仍遠低於15年的平均水準。如您所見,成本曲線的很大一部分仍然處於水下。

  • Ramping up existing developments and projects under construction will bring some supply to market. However, to meet demand in 2030 and even more so in 2035, a number of new investment decisions will need to be taken. The current price environment will not support this growth in production required to satisfy demand while allowing producers to recover their cost and justify the capital required.

    加大現有開發案和在建案的建設力度將為市場帶來一些供應。然而,為了滿足 2030 年甚至 2035 年的需求,需要做出許多新的投資決策。目前的價格環境無法支持滿足需求所需的產量成長,同時又允許生產商收回成本並證明所需的資本是合理的。

  • We are absolutely convinced that we are sitting right at the bottom of what will develop into a rather steep industry cost curve with the assets we are getting from our brine operations and projects in South America.

    我們完全相信,憑藉我們在南美鹽水營運和專案中獲得的資產,我們正處於未來將發展成為相當陡峭的行業成本曲線的底部。

  • With the strong DLE technology from our combined Arcadium and Rio Tinto teams, we believe we can both live our purpose of finding better ways to deliver the materials the world's needs and create a sizable and very profitable business for decades to come.

    憑藉 Arcadium 和 Rio Tinto 團隊共同打造的強大 DLE 技術,我們相信,我們既可以實現目標,找到更好的方式來滿足世界所需的材料,又可以在未來幾十年創造出規模龐大且利潤豐厚的業務。

  • To unlock our growth options, we need to be best-in-class in both business development and project execution. People are partnering with us because what we stand for, our dedication to our four objectives and doing what we said we will be doing through our strategy. I'm particularly proud that we are now able to execute our major projects, project portfolio on time and on budget.

    為了釋放我們的成長潛力,我們需要在業務發展和專案執行方面都做到最好。人們之所以與我們合作,是因為我們的立場、我們對四個目標的奉獻精神以及我們透過我們的策略所承諾的行動。我特別自豪的是,我們現在能夠按時、按預算執行我們的主要專案和專案組合。

  • Let's take a quick run through. In the Pilbara, Western Range is officially open on time, on budget and government approvals has been received and construction is underway for Hope Downs 2 and Brockman 4. Oyu Tolgoi is ramping up strongly on schedule, and this year, it will produce 50% more copper than last year. AP60 is progressing well. Despite a small cost over and we have four months ahead of schedule.

    讓我們快速瀏覽一下。在皮爾巴拉,西部山脈已按時、按預算正式開放,並已獲得政府批准,Hope Downs 2 和 Brockman 4 的建設正在進行中。奧尤陶勒蓋銅礦正按計畫大力增產,今年銅產量將比去年增加 50%。AP60 進展順利。儘管成本有點高,但我們還是提前四個月完成了任務。

  • Production is ramping up at the Rincon starter plant, while we are progressing with the full-scale project. In March, we closed the Arcadian deal and integration is progressing well under the leadership of Paul Graves, the former CEO, Acadian. We deepened our strategic partnership with Codelco in Atacama. First, with a new collaboration agreement for our copper development Nuevo Cobre and then through a binding agreement for a high-grade lithium project in the Salar de Maricunga.

    我們正在推進全面專案的同時,Rincon 起動器工廠的產量也在不斷提高。今年三月,我們完成了 Arcadian 交易,在 Acadian 前執行長 Paul Graves 的領導下,整合工作進展順利。我們深化了與阿塔卡馬Codelco公司的策略夥伴關係。首先,我們簽署了一項關於銅礦開發項目 Nuevo Cobre 的新合作協議,然後通過一項關於 Salar de Maricunga 高品位鋰項目的具有約束力的協議。

  • As late as last week, we also signed a binding agreement with name on the Salares Altoandinos project. In the United States, the administration has made the Resolution Copper project a priority with the final environmental impact statement published. The federal land exchange is now imminent, which will unlock the next phase of this project.

    就在上週,我們也就 Salares Altoandinos 計畫簽署了一份具有約束力的協議。在美國,政府已將 Resolution Copper 項目列為優先事項,並發布了最終環境影響聲明。聯邦土地交換即將到來,這將開啟該計畫的下一階段。

  • Now let's zoom in on the world's largest mining project, Simandou, it is progressing at breast taking speed. The project was sanctioned just last year and will deliver its first shipment of high-grade iron ore in November. I'm so impressed with what our combined teams are doing at Simandou.

    現在讓我們來看看世界上最大的採礦計畫西芒杜,它正在以驚人的速度進展。該項目去年剛獲得批准,並將於11月交付第一批高品位鐵礦石。我們的聯合團隊在西芒杜所做的事情給我留下了深刻的印象。

  • Let's take a minute to watch a short video that brings the scale of the project to life.

    讓我們花一點時間來觀看一段簡短的視頻,生動地展示該項目的規模。

  • (Presentation)

    (推介會)

  • An incredible engineering achievement. But perhaps more important, it is a significant role this project is playing for the Guinean government and people in building their economy. Our partnership here has the potential to create a lasting source of development for current and future generations. It's boosting the Guinean economy improving infrastructure and creating thousands of jobs.

    一項令人難以置信的工程成就。但或許更重要的是,該計畫對幾內亞政府和人民的經濟建設發揮了重要作用。我們的夥伴關係有可能為當代和子孫後代創造持久的發展來源。它正在促進幾內亞經濟發展,改善基礎設施,創造數千個就業機會。

  • The high-grade iron ore can enable steelmakers to produce steel with less CO2 emissions. And our teams are continuing to learn and strive every day for impeccable ESG performance from safety to biodiversity and in harmony with local communities.

    高品位鐵礦石可以幫助鋼鐵製造商生產出二氧化碳排放量較少的鋼鐵。我們的團隊每天都在不斷學習和努力,力求在從安全到生物多樣性以及與當地社區和諧相處等方面實現無可挑剔的 ESG 績效。

  • As I said earlier, I'm very proud of these financial results. While we have had times when prices have been better, these results represents the best underlying performance from our business in the now 14 sets of results that I have been involved in disclosing. You're seeing improved operational efficiency with growing volumes and control and costs.

    正如我之前所說,我對這些財務表現感到非常自豪。雖然我們曾經經歷過價格更優惠的時期,但這些結果代表了我們業務在我參與披露的 14 組結果中最好的基本表現。您會看到,隨著產量、控制力和成本的成長,營運效率也在提高。

  • At our investor seminar, I spoke about the three sites highlighted for improvement. You heard Peter earlier talk about great progress being made at Kennecott and our iron and titanium operations in Quebec, while the market is currently really tough, the business is becoming more efficient.

    在我們的投資者研討會上,我談到了三個需要改進的網站。您剛剛聽到彼得談到肯尼科特和我們在魁北克的鐵和鈦業務取得了巨大進展,雖然目前市場非常艱難,但業務效率正在提高。

  • And we are continuing to progress the safe production system implementation at the iron ore company of Canada, IOC. We are seeing real momentum in improving operational performance, the increasing value from our diversified portfolio and the excellence we're showing in unlocking growth projects.

    並持續推動加拿大鐵礦石公司IOC的安全生產體系實施。我們看到了營運績效改善的真正動力、多元化投資組合價值的不斷增長以及我們在解鎖成長項目方面所表現出的卓越表現。

  • My time as CEO of Rio Tinto is ending soon. I felt very privileged and I'm very grateful for the wide support I've experienced internally and externally. It's been a tremendous journey. As I look ahead, to the next chapter in Rio Tinto's 153 years history, I believe we are facing an opportunity-rich world.

    我擔任力拓集團執行長的任期即將結束。我感到非常榮幸,並非常感謝我所得到的來自內部和外部的廣泛支持。這是一次非凡的旅程。展望未來,展望力拓 153 年歷史的新篇章,我相信我們正面臨一個充滿機會的世界。

  • I've been reflecting on the legacy, our team will leave from our work over the last nearly five years. And one thing that stopped with me is a conversation I had with one of our former CEOs, John Ralph. He told me that when he and his predecessor, Rod Carnegie discussed how most value could be added to the company, they concluded it was about providing options for your successor.

    我一直在反思我們團隊在過去近五年的工作中留下的遺產。讓我印象深刻的一件事是我與我們前任執行長之一約翰·拉爾夫的一次談話。他告訴我,當他和他的前任羅德·卡內基討論如何為公司增加最大價值時,他們得出的結論是為繼任者提供選擇。

  • Rio Tinto is truly a long-term company, and I believe that the next Chief Executive have many options. As beautifully symbolized by this photo, the focus will now be shifting to Simon, who is here today, in listening mode, I should say.

    力拓確實是一家長期公司,我相信下一任執行長有很多選擇。正如這張照片所象徵的那樣,焦點現在將轉移到西蒙身上,我應該說,他今天在場,正處於聆聽狀態。

  • As the usual approach and was the case for me, when I was named CEO, Simon will be taking some time with the team to think about his approach. You can expect to hear from him throughout the rest of the year and not least at the upcoming investor seminar.

    按照通常的做法,對我來說也是如此,當我被任命為執行長時,西蒙將花一些時間與團隊一起思考他的方法。您可以在今年剩餘的時間裡,尤其是在即將舉行的投資者研討會上聽到他的消息。

  • I'm delighted that the Board has chosen an internal successor, as I believe we have developed a very strong bench. I selected Simon to run our biggest business 4.5 years ago. He has, in my view, done a great job, and I'm convinced he'll do very well as our next CEO. I now look forward to watching this incredible company continue to thrive and deliver value for our shareholders, including myself. Thank you.

    我很高興董事會選擇了一位內部繼任者,因為我相信我們已經建立了一個非常強大的團隊。四年半前,我選擇西蒙來管理我們最大的業務。在我看來,他做得非常出色,我相信他作為我們的下一任執行長會非常出色。我現在期待看到這家令人難以置信的公司繼續蓬勃發展並為包括我自己在內的股東創造價值。謝謝。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • hank you, Jakob. I'll just invite these guys back to the stage. I might just need a bit of mic support at the front.

    謝謝你,雅各。我只會邀請這些人重返舞台。我可能只需要在前面有一點麥克風支援。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Lily, does that still work?

    莉莉,這還能用嗎?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • I'll probably take the first question.

    我可能會回答第一個問題。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • There we go. So we have about 45 minutes for the Q&A and I do ask you to limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. We will start here with the audience in London, and then we'll switch to those online. Okay. We'll start here at the front.

    好了。因此,我們有大約 45 分鐘的時間進行問答,我確實要求您將自己限制為 1 個問題和 1 個後續問題。我們將從倫敦的觀眾開始,然後再轉向網路上的觀眾。好的。我們從前面開始。

  • Okay. We'll start here at the front.

    好的。我們從前面開始。

  • Jason Fairclough - Analyst

    Jason Fairclough - Analyst

  • At Jason Fairclough, Bank of America. Thanks for the presentation, Jakob and congrats, good luck with the next step. Two, I guess, related questions on Simandou. One, you've brought forward the first production. How are you thinking now about the progress from here up to 120 or I guess, for your share of the 60 million tonnes. So how do we think about that ramp-up?

    美國銀行 Jason Fairclough 先生。感謝 Jakob 的演講,恭喜你,祝你下一步好運。我想,有兩個與西芒杜相關的問題。第一,你們已經提前完成了第一部作品。您現在如何考慮從現在到達到 1.2 億噸,或者我猜,達到您在 6000 萬噸中所佔的份額的進展?那我們要如何看待這種成長呢?

  • Beyond that, you do sound surprised when you talk about the project, like it's gone very, very quickly. So I guess as an organization, what do you take away from that? What could you apply to some of your other projects?

    除此之外,當您談論這個專案時,您確實聽起來很驚訝,好像它進展得非常非常快。所以我想,作為一個組織,您從中得到了什麼?您可以將什麼應用到您的其他專案中?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yes. No. And the latter is the real big question. Look, we obviously have some limitations. We are already producing to stockpiles at the mine, et cetera. So we are quite confident that we can convey the first shipment in November, but there's a lot of work that has to be done.

    是的。不。而後者才是真正的大問題。看,我們顯然有一些限制。我們已經在礦場進行生產並儲存起來,等等。因此,我們非常有信心在 11 月運送第一批貨物,但還有很多工作要做。

  • And it's a ramp-up over 2.5 years. And you should be aware the port is like 2 ports and only the 1 port will be ready. So you can first -- the first 60 million tonnes, you can run up to and then you get the second port in place, and then you can go up to the 120 million tonnes. So it is a fairly long ramp-up period, but maybe not entirely bad in terms of penetrating the global market, et cetera.

    這是兩年半以來的一個成長過程。您應該知道該端口就像 2 個端口,只有 1 個端口處於準備就緒狀態。因此,你可以先將第一個 6,000 萬噸吞吐量提高到 1.2 億噸,然後等第二個港口建成後,吞吐量就可以達到 1.2 億噸。因此,這是一個相當長的上升期,但從滲透全球市場等方面來看可能還不算太壞。

  • I hope you got good comfort from what Peter showed also on the cost curve that there should be space for Simandou, while other mines are hitting their normal decline.

    我希望彼得在成本曲線上所展示的內容能帶給你安慰,也就是當其他礦場陷入正常衰退時,西芒杜礦場應該還有發展空間。

  • I think the real big question, which is fascinating is the second part of your question. We have learned a lot from our Chinese partners in terms of the engineering capabilities in China, the whole ecosystem is just unbelievable. The Chinese have been very good at learning from the West over a couple of decades. We got to learn from the Chinese.

    我認為真正的大問題,也是最令人著迷的問題,也是你問題的第二部分。我們從中國合作夥伴那裡學到了很多關於中國工程能力的知識,整個生態系統令人難以置信。幾十年來,中國人非常善於向西方學習。我們必須向中國人學習。

  • And I think we are ahead of the game here, and we certainly need to see how we can use that elsewhere as well. I'm proud of that we are bringing projects on time, on budget, but I actually still would like to see them being done faster and cheaper.

    我認為我們在這裡處於領先地位,我們當然需要了解如何在其他地方運用這一點。我為我們按時、按預算完成專案而感到自豪,但實際上我仍然希望看到它們更快、更便宜地完成。

  • Jason Fairclough - Analyst

    Jason Fairclough - Analyst

  • Is there any specific learnings that you can point to?

    您能指出哪些具體的經驗教訓嗎?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • It's a different commitment we see from the contractors in terms of -- you actually agree a price and you agree a schedule and is being delivered. I also think that the way you see the ecosystem working together on the standards, et cetera, has just worked extremely well. The best example I have is very often when we design things, we ask engineering firms to engineer everything with very often the Chinese just have their manual and saying, that bridge fits there, that bridge fits there, et cetera. And then you can do things at a completely different speed.

    我們從承包商那裡看到的是不同的承諾——你實際上同意了價格,同意了時間表並進行了交付。我還認為,生態系統在標準等方面的合作方式非常有效。我所舉的最好的例子是,當我們設計東西時,我們經常要求工程公司對所有的東西進行設計,而中國人通常只是拿著他們的手冊,說那座橋適合那裡,那座橋適合那裡,等等。然後你就可以以完全不同的速度做事。

  • Jason Fairclough - Analyst

    Jason Fairclough - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Okay, thank you. Good morning. My congratulations as well for your tenure here at Rio Tinto. Friday, in theory, copper tariffs kick in, in the United States, a 50% premium. You have one of two operating smelters in the US You have undeveloped mines in the US. Where do you think the tariff policy is going for copper and how do you take advantage amidst that range of potential outcomes?

    好的,謝謝。早安.我也對您在力拓集團任職表示祝賀。週五,理論上,銅關稅將生效,在美國,銅的溢價為 50%。您在美國擁有兩家正在營運的冶煉廠之一,並且在美國擁有未開發的礦場。您認為關稅政策對銅的影響如何?在一系列可能出現的結果中,您如何利用這項政策?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. So you're right, copper tariffs represent an opportunity for us because for reasons I don't entirely know from before my time, we have actually had a smelter that we haven't made a lot of money on for a long period of time at Kennecott. It is the US biggest and only one out of two, and as I said, we barely have made money, but it should become much more profitable from the tariffs immediately. So that's one positive thing.

    是的。所以你說得對,銅關稅對我們來說是一個機會,因為出於我之前並不完全清楚的原因,我們在肯尼科特的冶煉廠實際上很長一段時間都沒有賺到很多錢。它是美國最大的也是僅有的兩家公司之一,正如我所說,我們幾乎沒有賺到錢,但它應該會立即從關稅中獲得更多利潤。這是一件正面的事情。

  • The other thing in terms of copper opportunities is that -- but that's not related to the tariffs. It's just that the administration is putting a much more focus on developing mining opportunities, both inside the US and outside the US.

    關於銅機會的另一件事是——但這與關稅無關。只是政府更重視開發美國境內和境外的採礦機會。

  • And they have made resolution copper a priority project. And I think the evidence of finally getting published the environmental impact study and that the clock start taking is showing you that we will get to the next chapter in -- for resolution. And may I remind you, it is an unbelievable ore body that should be able to produce a quarter of the copper content in the US for decades to come.

    他們已將解決銅問題列為優先項目。我認為,最終發表的環境影響研究報告和開始計時的證據表明,我們將進入下一章,尋求解決方案。我要提醒你們的是,這是一個令人難以置信的礦體,它在未來幾十年內應該能夠生產出美國四分之一的銅含量。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • And that next chapter would be an updated feasibility study, the chapter after that would be FID potentially. How have you updated your probabilities of those chapters given where we are?

    下一章將是更新的可行性研究,再下一章可能是 FID。考慮到我們現在的情況,您如何更新這些章節的機率?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Well, we're going to learn a lot immediately. We will roll it as soon as we get the land exchange, we will immediately start drilling in what used to be federal land because we need to characterize the full ore body also the part that's not part of our land today. And of course, depending on that characterization, you can start developing the mine method and the mine plan.

    好吧,我們馬上就會學到很多。一旦我們獲得土地交換,我們就會立即開始在以前的聯邦土地上進行鑽探,因為我們需要描述整個礦體以及今天不屬於我們土地的部分。當然,根據該特徵,您可以開始製定採礦方法和採礦計劃。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Okay. We'll now go to on the line. So over to you, operator, please.

    好的。我們現在就上線。那麼,接線員,請交給您了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Paul Young, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的保羅·楊。

  • Paul Young - Analyst

    Paul Young - Analyst

  • Thanks. Morning, Jacob and Peter. Jacob, first, Firstly, I know this is your last set of results and looking sure, it's been an absolute pleasure. Jakob, the first question on copper. A really good EBITDA be from copper the first we've seen in some time. And part of that was to and the ramp-ups performing very well. Are we seeing (technical difficulty) there's been a bit of news flow on OT this half with regards to the delay in the transfer of the lease with Entrée Resources and also the ongoing tax dispute. We've also seen a change in Prime Minister there.

    謝謝。早上好,雅各和彼得。雅各布,首先,我知道這是你的最後一組結果,看起來確實如此,這絕對是一種榮幸。雅各布,第一個問題關於銅。這是我們一段時間以來第一次看到來自銅的真正好的 EBITDA。其中一部分原因是因為爬坡表現非常好。我們是否看到(技術難題)這半年 OT 上出現了一些新聞,涉及與 Entrée Resources 的租約轉讓延遲以及正在進行的稅務糾紛。我們也看到那裡的總理發生了變化。

  • So I just want to get your thoughts as at the moment just on where you think things are with the government? And any comments you can make on the timing of that lease transfer and also the tax dispute? Thanks.

    所以我只是想了解一下您目前對政府現狀的看法?您對租賃轉讓的時間以及稅務糾紛有何評論?謝謝。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. Well, first of all, you're right. It's a real highlight, the whole product group of copper. Peter mentioned the progress at Kennecott, also kudos to BSP for how Escondida has run in the first half. But the biggest highlight is clearly Oyu Tolgoi from a technical and economic point of view.

    是的。嗯,首先,你是對的。這真是一大亮點,整個產品組都是銅。彼得提到了肯尼科特的進展,同時也對埃斯孔迪達在上半年的運行表示讚賞。但從技術和經濟角度來看,最大的亮點顯然是奧尤陶勒蓋。

  • And then there is, of course, also the political view, I should say that I went with Katie Jackson to the mine two or three months ago. And we took for the first time ever the President underground. And with him, he had his Chief of Staff, who later on has become the Prime Minister of the country. We work very close with them. We have a very good relationship.

    當然,還有政治觀點,我應該說兩三個月前我和凱蒂傑克森一起去了礦井。我們有史以來第一次將總統帶到了地下。和他一起的還有他的參謀長,後來成為了國家的總理。我們與他們合作非常密切。我們的關係非常好。

  • On top, I had a very good relationship with the previous Prime Minister, but this is what is happening in politics, people are changing. We feel very comfortable with the people, and we have a good cooperation. And specifically on this Entrée issue. Let's not make it a bigger issue than it is. Right now, we are mining in Panel 0.

    最重要的是,我與前任首相的關係非常好,但這就是政治中正在發生的事情,人們不斷在改變。我們與人民相處非常融洽,合作愉快。特別是關於這個 Entrée 問題。我們不要讓這個問題變得比實際上更大。目前,我們正在 Panel 0 上進行挖礦。

  • We were planning to go to Panel 1, but we can instead of go to Panel 2 if we don't have the transfer. And the mine will be mined exactly the same way it might be the case that there's slightly lower grade, and therefore, there can be a little bit of time value of money lost, but that's about it, Paul. So don't get too worried about it. I actually feel very good about the state of Oyu Tolgoi. And you might not be able to see it, but Peter is nodding.

    我們原本計劃去 Panel 1,但如果沒有轉會的話,我們可以不去 Panel 2。而且礦場的開採方式完全相同,可能會出現品位略低的情況,因此,可能會有一點金錢的時間價值損失,但就是這樣,保羅。所以不要太擔心。事實上,我對奧尤陶勒蓋的狀況感覺非常好。你可能看不到,但彼得正在點頭。

  • Paul Young - Analyst

    Paul Young - Analyst

  • Yeah. I mean without -- Jakob, it seems like it's -- it might impact metal production in three years time, I understand that, but just want to understand the timing there. And just on the taxes, I mean the fact that the going governments going to international quarter arbitration in my view a positive, right, because they're trying to actually get a ruling on the tax. So that in live international community, a lot of the foreign banks and will -- Mongolia, that they do this properly. Is that your view as well?

    是的。我的意思是,如果沒有——雅各布,看起來——它可能會在三年內影響金屬生產,我明白這一點,但我只是想了解一下時間。就稅收而言,我的意思是,各國政府進行國際季度仲裁在我看來是積極的,因為他們實際上試圖對稅收做出裁決。因此,在國際社會中,許多外國銀行和蒙古都會正確地做到這一點。您也是這麼認為嗎?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Look, the reality is I would have loved to have solved in bilateral negotiations a long time ago. But politically, it's very difficult. And I think you just have to respect that. It's actually quite an impressive democracy that they have in Mongolia. We feel very confident because we have shared their views, we have shared our views and now we go through a control process with a hearing here in September. So it is progressing, and we feel very confident that we will also end up with a decent outcome.

    你看,事實上我早就希望透過雙邊談判解決這個問題了。但從政治角度來說,這非常困難。我認為你必須尊重這一點。蒙古的民主制度確實令人印象深刻。我們感到非常有信心,因為我們已經分享了他們的觀點,我們也分享了我們的觀點,現在我們將在 9 月在這裡舉行聽證會並經歷一個控制過程。所以它正在取得進展,我們非常有信心最終也會取得不錯的結果。

  • Paul Young - Analyst

    Paul Young - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you, Jacob.

    好的,謝謝你,雅各。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Thank you. We'll take a second call from online. Thanks.

    謝謝。我們將接聽第二通線上電話。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rahul Anand, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的拉胡爾·阿南德。

  • Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

    Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

  • Hi Jakob, Peter and team and great innings Jakob, wishes for all your future endeavors. Look, my question is on the iron ore business. Obviously, you dropped the grade there. So my question is, what are the impacts you're seeing on the revenue line? Is the impact better or worse than a simple grade adjustment?

    嗨,雅各布、彼得和團隊,雅各布,祝福你們未來一切順利。我的問題是關於鐵礦石業務的。顯然,你的成績下降了。所以我的問題是,您認為這對收入有何影響?其影響比簡單的等級調整更好還是更糟?

  • And how much can you actually save on cost considering your supply chain is going to be much more simplified now with your product streams going from five to one? I'll come back with a follow-up. Thank you.

    考慮到您的供應鏈現在將變得更加簡化,產品流從五個減少到一個,您實際上可以節省多少成本?我會回來跟進的。謝謝。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • I'll leave that for Peter. I just want to tee off and saying one thing, what I've really been pleased about is that we have seen deep analysis, good cooperation between the product group and commercial and the part that I have been involved in, namely engagement with the customers as well. We had choices to be made, and we have consulted them, we have found and made choices that are aligned with our customers. So it's actually been quite well received in that regard. An economic impact, Peter?

    我將把它留給彼得。我只想開始說一件事,我真正感到高興的是,我們看到了深入的分析、產品組和商業之間的良好合作,以及我所參與的部分,即與客戶的互動。我們必須做出選擇,我們已經諮詢過他們,我們找到並做出了與我們的客戶一致的選擇。因此,從這個方面來看,它實際上受到了相當好評。有經濟影響嗎,彼得?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • So I think right now, we've started making the first shipments under the new specification. And it is early days, but I think so far, all the work we did with the customers so they understood our system and that really to meet what they needed is working out well. So I think we're pretty comfortable with the initial shipments and where they're landing from a revenue perspective.

    所以我認為現在我們已經開始按照新規範進行第一批出貨。雖然現在還處於早期階段,但我認為到目前為止,我們與客戶一起做的所有工作都是為了讓他們了解我們的系統,並且能夠真正滿足他們的需求,而且進展順利。因此我認為,從收入角度來看,我們對初始出貨量和預期非常滿意。

  • I mean in terms of costs, clearly, the near-term impact is just simplification of the product because we're going down mostly to one blend rather than having sort of the degree of SP10 we've had. So SP10, you can expect to come down in the second half of the year.

    我的意思是,就成本而言,顯然,短期影響只是產品的簡化,因為我們主要採用一種混合物,而不是像我們以前那樣採用 SP10 的程度。因此,你可以預期 SP10 將在下半年下降。

  • But if I really look at the benefits, I mean, more of them for the rest of the business are long term, it's about actually increasing the amount of production capacity in our mines. It's about the sort of the capital intensity of the business in the long term and about managing sort of closure liabilities as well. It's that package, which is all longer-term benefits, which are really part of this, I think, solution to meet the needs of our customers, but also to maximize the value from our system.

    但如果我真的看好處,我的意思是,對於其他業務來說,更多的好處是長期的,實際上是增加了我們礦山的生產能力。這涉及到長期的業務資本密集度以及管理關閉負債的問題。我認為,這個方案真正是滿足客戶需求的解決方案的一部分,同時也是為了最大限度地發揮我們系統的價值,而所有長期利益都是如此。

  • Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

    Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

  • And my follow-up is to someone else's question earlier on the tariff situation. Obviously, copper are positive, but obviously, I think more than offset by the aluminum business shipping tonnes from Canada to the US So could you perhaps help me understand sort of what the strategy is under the current circumstances? Are you looking to reramp volumes to other geographies? Or is that not an option in size given logistics?

    我的後續問題是回答其他人之前提出的有關關稅情況的問題。顯然,銅是利好消息,但顯然,我認為從加拿大向美國運輸鋁業務所抵消的利好消息超過了鋁業務所抵消的利好消息,那麼您能否幫助我了解當前情況下的策略是什麼?您是否希望將銷售量重新擴大到其他地區?或者說,考慮到物流,這在尺寸上不是一個選擇?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Well, let's -- I mean, we have spent a lot of time on this. First of all, tariffs is not -- it's between nations. And there are many other aspects and not just the tariffs in this part here. The beauty that you can see today with our results is that we are actually able to navigate that with very limited impact.

    好吧,讓我們——我的意思是,我們在這件事上花了很多時間。首先,關稅不是──它是國家之間的問題。還有許多其他方面,而不僅僅是這一部分中的關稅。您今天可以從我們的成果中看到美妙之處,那就是我們實際上能夠以非常有限的影響來解決這個問題。

  • Do we like all this? Do we like a 50% tariff on aluminum? Not really, but it's not for us to make much statements around that. We're demonstrating that we can actually manage it. I think it's much more the final consumer that we'll have to pay.

    我們喜歡這一切嗎?我們喜歡對鋁徵收 50% 的關稅嗎?並非如此,但我們不應該就此發表太多聲明。我們正在證明我們確實能夠做到這一點。我認為我們必須向最終消費者支付更多費用。

  • We are able to pass on things. I think the good example, you've got the data very clearly in our disclosures today, the aluminum unit price or unit revenue is up 14%. But if you deduct the impact of tariffs, it's still up around 6%. So how have we doubled the profitability in aluminum great operational experience, good pricing in bauxite and actually retaining the margin in the alumina, aluminum business as well, pretty good.

    我們能夠傳遞事物。我認為很好的例子是,您在我們今天披露的數據中已經非常清楚地看到了,鋁單價或單位收入上漲了 14%。但如果扣除關稅的影響,仍會上漲6%左右。那麼,我們該如何實現鋁的獲利能力翻倍呢?豐富的營運經驗、良好的鋁土礦定價,以及實際上保持氧化鋁、鋁業務的利潤率,這都相當不錯。

  • Now that doesn't guarantee you that they couldn't come up something tomorrow. So I cannot promise you anything, but the reality is when we started the year, we had absolutely no experience. We have now learned a lot over the first 6 months and conclude that we can actually manage the aluminum situation. And if you then take the color, that's positive and aluminum is slightly negative, then overall, the impact is actually not very significant.

    現在,這並不能保證他們明天就無法想出辦法。所以我不能向你保證任何事情,但事實是,當我們開始這一年的時候,我們完全沒有任何經驗。我們在前六個月學到了很多東西,並得出結論,我們實際上可以控制鋁的情況。如果你再考慮顏色,那是正面的,而鋁則略微消極,那麼總的來說,影響實際上並不是很明顯。

  • Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

    Rahul Anand - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • So we'll go back here in the room. We'll go a bit to the left of the room.

    所以我們會回到房間。我們將走到房間左邊一點。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you particularly, Jakob, a great innings as the others point out. Just always remain convinced that lithium is going to be a bottom quartile cost curve. Can you just give us where the confidence comes. Is that grade? Is that a technology it daily? Is it rationalization of the Arcadia business that you've bought? Just which combination of those?

    特別感謝雅各布,正如其他人指出的那樣,這是一個偉大的時刻。始終堅信鋰的成本曲線將處於最低四分位數。您能否告訴我們您的信心從何而來?那是年級嗎?這是日常技術嗎?這是對您購買的 Arcadia 業務的合理化嗎?這些到底是哪一種組合?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • It is everything, but if I should cover it out and make it very simple. We now know with Rincon that we can run that operation around $4,500 per tonne of OpEx, and we have also told you that the capital intensity of Rincon is $43,000 per tonne. You take a capital charge of $43,000, whatever you use if you come to 5%, 5.5%. That means -- but as soon as you get $10,000, you create NPV. And that's because it's amazing reservoirs.

    它是一切,但如果我應該把它掩蓋起來並使其變得非常簡單。現在我們知道,透過 Rincon,我們可以以每噸約 4,500 美元的營運成本來運作該業務,我們也告訴您,Rincon 的資本密集度為每噸 43,000 美元。您需要支付 43,000 美元的資本費用,無論您使用多少,只要達到 5% 或 5.5% 即可。這意味著——只要您獲得 10,000 美元,您就會創建 NPV。這是因為它擁有令人驚嘆的水庫。

  • And on top of that, I think you have to think about what is the impact to nature. This DLE is actually a way where you can just suck up the brine and find ways to reinject it as well and have very little environmental footprint. We are not able to see anything that has so little impact to nature that can be done at that price. And that brings us at the bottom of the cost curve.

    除此之外,我認為你必須考慮這會對大自然產生什麼影響。這種 DLE 實際上是一種可以吸收鹽水並找到重新註入鹽水的方法,而且對環境的影響很小。我們無法想像以這樣的代價能做出對自然影響如此之小的事。這使我們處於成本曲線的底部。

  • On top of that, you then take the Arcadium organization and you tend to you bring the technologies together and you start a learning journey, how can we make this better and cheaper. So I'm very optimistic that we are competitive today, and we will become even more competitive tomorrow. And the beauty of that industry is that a lot needs to be built. This is not a static one. It's one of those that as soon as you don't build something, you lack supply.

    除此之外,你還可以加入 Arcadium 組織,將各種技術整合在一起,開始學習之旅,探索如何讓這一切變得更好、更便宜。因此,我非常樂觀地認為,我們今天具有競爭力,明天我們的競爭力將進一步增強。這個行業的美妙之處在於有很多東西需要建造。這不是一個靜態的。這就是那種一旦你不建造某樣東西就會缺乏供應的情況之一。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • And so the implications for the hard rock assets that came along with Arcadium, would they have to stand out by themselves? Or would you like to keep the market share?

    那麼 Arcadium 帶來的硬搖滾資產意味著什麼,它們是否必須自己脫穎而出?或者您想保持市場佔有率?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Look, it's still early days. We have -- I think it's fair to say, Peter and Simon and others, there will, of course, be much more details around, a more master plan for lithium at the Capital Markets Day later in the year. But so far, we have attached most value to the Latin American assets. We are very proud on top of Arcadium to add the two assets in Chile. But we're also finding reason means to progress the Nemaska project in Canada. But we only closed the deals a month ago.

    瞧,現在還為時過早。我們有——我認為可以公平地說,彼得、西蒙和其他人,當然會在今年稍後的資本市場日上公佈更多細節,一個關於鋰的更總體規劃。但到目前為止,我們最重視的是拉丁美洲的資產。我們非常自豪能夠在 Arcadium 的基礎上在智利增加這兩項資產。但我們也在尋找合理的方法來推進加拿大的 Nemaska 計畫。但我們一個月前才完成交易。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Let's go to the end of the line.

    讓我們走到隊伍的末端。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Jakob, two questions for me. The first is we're starting to see some of your competitors talk about broader cost savings. So I'm just wondering if you see opportunities for cost savings within the Rio Tinto Group that are not just productivity led?

    雅各布,問我兩個問題。首先,我們開始看到一些競爭對手談論更廣泛的成本節約。所以我只是想知道,您是否看到力拓集團內部的成本節約機會不僅僅是生產力推動的?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • So a couple of things on that because you're asking for future. And I realize, as you can imagine, I've been a little bit busy this morning, but I do have seen that Glencore has reported results as well. What I'd like to say is the journey we are at with the four objectives, particularly best operator, has taken a long time. It's a continuous improvement. I think what you see with the half year results, there is real benefit coming out of it.

    由於您詢問的是未來,因此有幾件事需要注意。我知道,正如你所想像的,我今天早上有點忙,但我確實看到嘉能可也公佈了業績。我想說的是,我們實現四個目標,特別是最佳營運商的目標,已經走了很長一段路。這是一個持續改進的過程。我認為從半年結果來看,它確實帶來了好處。

  • We are growing. It's not so much about cutting cost. It's more about can we control the cost while we are growing the volume and become more efficient. It's for -- Simon tried to answer the question, but at a later date, I just hope and believe as a shareholder that we will continue this continuous improvement journey because I think we're only at the foothill of the mountain here. That's why I also at the year-end said this thing about doubling down on operational performance and our Chairman repeated that not long ago.

    我們正在成長。這與其說是為了削減成本。更重要的是我們能否在擴大產量和提高效率的同時控製成本。這是為了——西蒙試圖回答這個問題,但在以後的某個時候,作為股東,我只是希望並相信我們將繼續這一持續改進的旅程,因為我認為我們只是站在山腳下。這就是為什麼我在年底也說過要加倍提高營運績效,而且我們的董事長不久前也重複了這一點。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you. And second question, it comes up very frequently to Chinalco. Is there any update that you can provide us with on conversations or progress with respect to the Chinalco (multiple speakers) --

    謝謝。第二個問題是中鋁公司常被問到的。您能否向我們提供關於中鋁公司談判或進展的最新資訊?(多位發言者)——

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Look, the dialogue for Peter and for myself, I'm going there shortly is ongoing. The one thing that I want to say to you as shareholders is we take it very serious. We want to find a pathway where we can buy back shares as well, absolutely. But I don't have a solution today.

    你看,彼得和我之間的對話正在進行中,我很快就會去那裡。身為股東,我想對你們說的一件事是,我們對此非常重視。我們絕對希望找到一條可以回購股票的途徑。但我今天還沒有解決方案。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Okay. We'll now go back to those on the line. So two from the line, please, operator. And please just reminder to announce your name and where you're from.

    好的。我們現在回到線上。接線員,請接聽兩位電話。請提醒一下,告知您的姓名和來自哪裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Stein, Macquarie.

    麥格理銀行的羅布‧斯坦 (Rob Stein)。

  • Robert Stein - Equity Analyst

    Robert Stein - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you very much and congratulations, Congratulations, Jakob again. Just on the iron ore market, you've -- it's interesting that you've been so delivered in your conversation around the iron ore market today. You made a comment that you see a lot of production capacity coming out from the majors via depletion. Can you potentially highlight where you think that's going to come? And if not, can you provide a view on what your depletion rates will be from the Pilbara and whether Simandou will replace any of that? That's okay.

    非常感謝,恭喜你,再次恭喜你,雅各。就鐵礦石市場而言,您今天在有關鐵礦石市場的談話中表達得如此生動有趣。您評論說,您看到主要石油公司的大量生產能力因枯竭而減少。您能否重點說明一下您認為這將會發生在哪裡?如果沒有,您能否介紹皮爾巴拉的消耗率是多少,以及西芒杜是否會取代其中的一部分?沒關係。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • It's actually a really tough question because it's like every mine goes towards depletion. So it's not kind of one place. I think the most evident thing is you can see that all the producers in the Pilbara are facing lower grade. It's a good indicator. You just don't have minds, unfortunately, in eternity. And I think you just need to look at the numbers.

    這實際上是一個非常棘手的問題,因為就像每個礦場都會枯竭一樣。所以它不是一個單一的地方。我認為最明顯的事情是,你可以看到皮爾巴拉的所有生產商都面臨著較低的品味。這是一個很好的指標。不幸的是,在永恆中你沒有思想。我認為你只需要看看這些數字。

  • The numbers is that you've got 1.9 billion tonnes of contestable iron ore a year. And Simandou is only 120 million tonnes. So that's kind of like 6%, ramping up over 2.5 years. So you only need to kind of have a depletion rate of around 3% to be back to status quo. So it looks quite attractive.

    數字是,每年有19億噸可爭奪的鐵礦石。而西芒杜只有1.2億噸。所以這相當於 6% 的成長率,在 2.5 年內不斷增加。因此,你只需要將消耗率控制在 3% 左右,就能恢復到現狀。所以它看起來很有吸引力。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Rob. Your second question?

    謝謝,羅布。你的第二個問題?

  • Robert Stein - Equity Analyst

    Robert Stein - Equity Analyst

  • And just on cost out. Obviously, there's been quite a theme here in the recent quarterly reporting season in Australia of CapEx deferrals and aggressive cost out given some of the market conditions in some of the commodities. Can you perhaps comment on what you're seeing more globally where the productivity and inflation is starting to bite in your different regions and how you can address that going forward?

    並且只考慮成本。顯然,考慮到部分商品的市場狀況,澳洲最近一個季度的報告季中出現了資本支出延期和大幅成本支出的主題。您能否評論一下您在全球範圍內看到的情況,即生產力和通貨膨脹開始對不同地區產生影響,以及您未來將如何應對這些問題?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Well, I think all the teams from the various product groups has -- and the biggest challenge we had was probably a little while ago in Western Australia, but they're actually managing inflation very, very well. And as you have seen, Peter gave a good example of that we're actually reducing manpower in a number of places, not about -- I wouldn't call it cost cutting. It's just about continuous improvement, becoming more efficient. Every day you go to work, you have to be a little bit more efficient.

    嗯,我認為各個產品組的所有團隊都已經——我們面臨的最大挑戰可能是不久前在西澳大利亞,但他們實際上非常非常好地控制了通貨膨脹。正如你所看到的,彼得舉了一個很好的例子,我們實際上正在許多地方減少人力,而不是——我不會稱之為削減成本。這只是持續改進,變得更有效率。每天上班,你都必須提高一點效率。

  • And I think that's what we are seeing. We are blessed be Rio Tinto with not having big loss-making assets. A number of other parts of the mining industry have got that. We don't -- there's a couple of assets that has very, very low profitability, and we've got to improve that. But the reality is 3 out of 4, the 3 biggest product groups has double-digit return on capital employed. So you've got to be careful of actually protecting that profitability rather than destroying that profitability.

    我想這就是我們所看到的。我們很幸運,力拓沒有大規模虧損資產。採礦業的許多其他部分也都存在這種情況。我們沒有——有幾項資產的獲利能力非常非常低,我們必須改善這一點。但實際情況是,四分之三的三大產品組的資本報酬率都達到了兩位數。因此你必須小心保護獲利能力而不是破壞獲利能力。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • And I think operationally, when you look at the big product groups that are really driving the profits at the moment, I mean, it is that continuous improvement, where you need to make corrections we're making them. I mean, Kennecott, I talked about in terms of Kennecott's cost base, RTIT, again, is very challenging markets. Again, they really are working very hard to take out costs. So it's that reflection that each business has its own context, but really it's about being consistent in how you really drive costs over time.

    我認為從營運角度來看,當你看到目前真正推動利潤成長的大型產品組時,我的意思是,這是一種持續的改進,你需要做出修正,而我們正在做出修正。我的意思是,我談到了 Kennecott 的成本基礎,RTIT 再次是一個非常具有挑戰性的市場。再說一次,他們確實在非常努力地降低成本。因此,這反映出每個企業都有自己的情況,但實際上,關鍵在於如何隨著時間的推移真正控製成本。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Then one more from the operator, please. Thanks, Rob.

    謝謝。那麼請接線生再說一句。謝謝,羅布。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lyndon Fagan, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的林登費根。

  • Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

    Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask about the lithium slide on slide 17. I'm just wondering if Rio believes in that demand profile, which still shows over 3 million tonnes in 2030, I guess, potentially 20% higher than some of the market estimates out there. Is that a number that Rio is nearing its own business up to produce into? And I guess the follow-up is can you perhaps talk to some of the ways to expansions that Arcadium had and when they might be sort of maturing in the project pipeline?

    我只是想問第 17 張投影片上的鋰幻燈片。我只是想知道力拓是否相信該需求概況,我猜該概況仍顯示 2030 年需求將超過 300 萬噸,可能比一些市場估計高出 20%。這是力拓自身業務即將達到的數字嗎?我想接下來的問題是,您能否談談 Arcadium 的一些擴展方式,以及它們何時會在專案流程中成熟?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yeah. No, thank you. I thought I did a bit. And for sure, the stuff I've just presented, we do believe in. I think there's a couple of things. We spent a lot of time with our economists last year to really, really try to understand the drivers behind the lithium demand. And as I said to you, EVs have actually over-shooted, but EVs will always go a little bit up and down, one year is -- the next year, it's a little bit less, but it's happening.

    是的。不,謝謝。我以為我做了一點。可以肯定的是,我們確實相信我剛才提出的內容。我認為有幾件事。去年,我們花了很多時間與經濟學家一起真正嘗試了解鋰需求背後的驅動因素。正如我所說的,電動車實際上已經超調,但電動車總是會有點上下波動,今年是 - 第二年,它會稍微少一點,但它正在發生。

  • I think the other thing that no economist, no one had seen was that stationary batteries because that becomes so deep. Just look at it now, we are repowering buoyant smelter. We thought we would do it with gas peakers to firm the electricity. And then suddenly, we realize the battery is cheaper, has doubled in just 12 months. And that's a whole new significant stream of lithium demand.

    我認為另一件沒有經濟學家、沒有人見過的事情是固定電池,因為它變得太深了。看看現在,我們正在為活躍的冶煉廠重新供電。我們認為可以使用燃氣調峰發電機來穩定電力。然後我們突然意識到電池更便宜了,光是 12 個月就翻了一番。這對鋰的需求將是一個全新的重要趨勢。

  • So yes, we do believe in the lithium demand. We are working and Peter is not more than a week ago, Peter and I was with the whole team was going through a master plan on projects. But you know what, we need to reiterate that many times because we are bringing. Paul is very well bringing two organizations together.

    所以是的,我們確實相信鋰的需求。我們正在和彼得一起工作,不到一周前,彼得和我與整個團隊正在製定專案總體規劃。但你知道嗎,我們需要多次重申這一點,因為我們正在帶來。保羅非常善於將兩個組織整合在一起。

  • We're learning from each other. And every time we meet, we mature that. And we're going to give you a real good run through at the Capital Markets Day on the priorities. But the one thing I can say to you is we have a lot of options here. Anything you want to add, Peter?

    我們正在互相學習。每次見面,我們都會更加成熟。我們將在資本市場日上向您詳細介紹這些優先事項。但我可以告訴你們的是,我們這裡有很多選擇。彼得,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Jakob, as you said, I mean the immediate priority is delivering the sort of Fenics expansion in Salar de, stage 1, which will be in '26. And then the other in flight is in the -- hydroxide and spodumene project, which is in flight. But everything else, as you say, I mean, we need to now work through the plethora of options we have, how best to deliver those and how is to deliver value for shareholders in the context of the market. So I think well set up, but lots of thinking going on there.

    雅各布,正如你所說,我的意思是當務之急是在 Salar de 進行 Fenics 擴建,第一階段,將在 26 年完成。另一個正在飛行的是氫氧化物和鋰輝石項目,該項目正在飛行中。但正如您所說,其他所有事情,我的意思是,我們現在需要研究我們擁有的眾多選擇,如何最好地實現這些選擇,以及如何在市場背景下為股東創造價值。所以我認為設定得很好,但還需要進行很多思考。

  • Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

    Lyndon Fagan - Analyst

  • Thank you. Just a quick follow-up, if I may. Are you able to talk to the ramp-up profile there. Is that essentially straight line from November? Or can you maybe give a bit of color on how that looks over the 30 months?

    謝謝。如果可以的話,我只是想快速跟進。您能和那裡的 ramp-up 簡介談談嗎?從十一月開始這基本上是一條直線嗎?或者您能否稍微描述一下未來 30 個月的情況?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Yeah. So Lyndon, I mean I think we said that my first shipment will be November this year, but then it's really a fact of how infrastructure comes in and how then we can ramp up within the context of sort of sharing initially poor capacity with the sort of block on and two developers. So I mean, it is over 30 months. I think it will be probably -- we'll try and optimize that as we work through the infrastructure coming online.

    是的。所以林登,我的意思是,我想我們說過我的第一批貨物將於今年 11 月發貨,但這實際上是一個關於基礎設施如何進入的事實,以及我們如何在與兩家開發商共享最初較差的產能的情況下擴大產能。我的意思是,這已經超過 30 個月了。我認為這是有可能的——我們將在基礎設施上線的過程中嘗試並優化它。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Great. We'll move back here to the room, please.

    偉大的。請讓我們回到房間。

  • Alain Gabriel - Analyst

    Alain Gabriel - Analyst

  • Thanks, it's Alain Gabriel at Morgan Stanley. Jakob, your portfolio includes businesses that are not material enough in the context of the group profit. Do you see an opportunity there to simplify the portfolio? And if so, in which businesses does this opportunity bucket it?

    謝謝,我是摩根士丹利的阿蘭·加布里埃爾。雅各布,你的投資組合中包含的業務在集團利潤方面不夠重要。您是否看到了簡化投資組合的機會?如果是的話,這個機會適合哪些企業?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Yes, you should always try to simplify and you're never simple enough in that -- as I said just a moment ago, the good news is we don't have big loss-making assets. There are no assets that we have put on care and maintenance, et cetera. And that shows about the quality of the -- portfolio, I would call it second to none in that regard. That shouldn't stop us from asking ourselves crucial questions about who is the best owner of certain assets, et cetera.

    是的,你應該始終嘗試簡化,但在這方面你永遠都不夠簡單——正如我剛才所說,好消息是我們沒有大額虧損的資產。我們沒有投入任何精力去照顧和維護等等的資產。這表明了投資組合的質量,在這方面我認為它是首屈一指的。這不應該阻止我們問自己一些關鍵問題,例如誰是某些資產的最佳所有者等等。

  • But you have to be careful of. It's not just a matter of size. If you have an asset that you are the best operator of and is very profitable and generate a lot of cash, it's fine to have it. But you should always ask yourself those questions. It's not different from asking yourself the question, should you buy something? And we've just this half closed the deal of Arcadium because, yes, we wanted to have more exposure to lithium.

    但你一定要小心。這不僅僅是一個規模的問題。如果你擁有一項資產,並且你是最擅長管理該資產的,而且該資產盈利能力很強,能產生大量現金,那麼擁有它是件好事。但你應該始終問自己這些問題。這與問自己「你該買什麼東西嗎?」這個問題沒什麼不同。我們剛剛完成了 Arcadium 的交易,因為,是的,我們希望更多地接觸鋰。

  • Alain Gabriel - Analyst

    Alain Gabriel - Analyst

  • A follow-up question is, what is the one thing that is still on your bucket list that you wish you had done at Rio Tinto had you had more time and that you confidently give on to your successor.

    接下來的問題是,如果您有更多的時間,您希望在力拓完成的一件事情是什麼,並且您有信心將它交給您的繼任者。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • No. Look, I'm very, very happy to leave a lot of options to Simon and also happy to see it as a shareholder from the site seeing it, it happening because I also have to remember myself, it's not -- first of all, it's not me, but we as a team that we have created a lot of things. Most of the things are things we have inherited from our predecessors. And many of the things goes back from, not just previous predecessors but actually 20 years -- 25 years back.

    不。聽著,我非常非常高興地給西蒙留下了很多選擇,也很高興看到它作為現場股東看到它發生,因為我也必須記住自己,它不是 - 首先,這不是我,而是我們作為一個團隊創造了很多東西。大多數東西都是我們從前人那裡繼承下來的東西。許多事情不僅可以追溯到前輩,甚至可以追溯到 20 年前甚至 25 年前。

  • The key thing is when you have those options, what are you going to do about it? And -- but what was I missing in my time I think it's just a simple thing is always you would like to have done things done more of it faster. Things takes time. I tell you one of the four objectives. Some of the things I felt went very fast, but it's only now that you really see crystallizing that the operational performance towards best operator and the excellent development in terms of project execution is really coming through. And of course, it's frustrating that it takes 4.5 years, but it's a big company, and those things just takes time.

    關鍵是當你有這些選擇時,你會怎麼做?而且——但我認為我當時缺少的只是一件簡單的事情,那就是你總是希望做更多的事情,做得更快。事情需要時間。我告訴你四個目標之一。我覺得有些事情進展得非常快,但直到現在你才真正看到朝著最佳運營商的營運績效和專案執行方面的出色發展真正顯現出來。當然,這需要 4.5 年的時間,這令人沮喪,但這是一家大公司,這些事情就是需要時間。

  • Alain Gabriel - Analyst

    Alain Gabriel - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Okay, go back.

    好啦,回去吧。

  • Amos Fletcher, CFA - Research Analyst

    Amos Fletcher, CFA - Research Analyst

  • Amos Fletcher from Barclays. Just one question actually for Peter. Gearing levels are slightly high now post the Arcadium acquisition. Are you happy with the remaining at that sort of level? Or do you want to look to bring them down over time?

    巴克萊銀行的阿莫斯·弗萊徹。實際上我只想問彼得一個問題。收購 Arcadium 後,負債水準現在略高。您對保持這樣的水平感到滿意嗎?或者您想隨著時間的推移逐漸降低它們?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • So we've always said that we're very happy with the balance sheet being strong, being an A credit rating, and it gives us flexibility. I mean, high, it's 90% gearing ratio right now. So we feel that the balance sheet is in really good shape. And we have flexibility going forward at these sorts of levels. But we'll go up and down. I mean, this is a cyclical industry cash flows will go up and down. What we've got to do is use the balance sheet to really make sure we can deliver against the strategy and also deliver shareholder returns.

    因此,我們一直說,我們對資產負債表的強勁、A 級信用評級感到非常滿意,這為我們提供了靈活性。我的意思是,現在的負債比率很高,達到 90%。因此我們認為資產負債表狀況非常好。我們在這些層面上都有向前發展的靈活性。但我們會上上下下。我的意思是,這是一個週期性的行業,現金流會有起有落。我們要做的就是利用資產負債表來真正確保我們能夠實現策略並為股東帶來回報。

  • Peter McGee - Analyst

    Peter McGee - Analyst

  • Peter McGee from Goldman Sachs. Maybe just a follow-on on the lithium question earlier, and your incentive curve, you've announced Maricunga and Altoandinos this half. And Jakob, you just walked through the incentive price on Rincon. With these new projects, what's your expectation on the incentive pricing for those Chilean projects? Is higher or lower?

    高盛的彼得·麥吉。也許只是對之前鋰問題的後續討論,以及您的激勵曲線,您已經在本半年宣布了 Maricunga 和 Altoandinos。雅各布,你剛剛介紹了 Rincon 的激勵價格。對於這些新項目,您對智利項目的激勵定價有何期望?是高了還是低了?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • So Chile and Argentina are slightly different in terms of their royalty schemes versus the reg legislation. You could also say they have slightly different risk profiles as countries, et cetera, we feel quite confident with both of them all inclusive. We're very happy that we kind of have a little bit of diversifying brines of having it both in Argentina and in Chile because you can never predict exactly how things are developing.

    因此,智利和阿根廷的特許權使用費計劃與監管立法略有不同。你也可以說,由於國家等不同,它們的風險狀況略有不同,但我們對它們的包容性充滿信心。我們很高興我們在阿根廷和智利都擁有一些多樣化的鹽水,因為你永遠無法準確預測事情的發展。

  • But if you take something like Maricunga, the plants we are doing, the DLEs are very much the same. Every reservoir is different. So it's a matter of getting in and understanding the reservoir and then repeat what you already have done. And we need to learn like the Chinese every time you repeat building a plant, you do it cheaper. So how do you get on that continuous improvement. And if you get on that, you will get some very competitive lithium in the future.

    但如果你以 Maricunga 之類的植物為例,我們正在種植的植物,其 DLE 非常相似。每個水庫都不同。因此,關鍵在於進入並了解水庫,然後重複您已經做過的事情。我們需要像中國人一樣學習,每次建造工廠時,成本都會更低。那麼如何實現持續改進呢?如果你能做到這一點,未來你就能獲得非常有競爭力的鋰。

  • Peter McGee - Analyst

    Peter McGee - Analyst

  • Thanks. And my follow-up is -- I mean you touched on it slightly, but has not sold any assets since 2018. You've added more commodities, more jurisdictions, more costs into the business. You've mentioned titanium quite a few times in this presentation today. So I guess just taking a step back, and I probably can't comment on that, but is Rio actively looking to streamline and potentially reshape the business to recycle capital and streamline up?

    謝謝。我的後續問題是——我的意思是你稍微提到了這一點,但自 2018 年以來就沒有出售任何資產。您在業務中增加了更多商品、更多司法管轄區和更多成本。您今天在演講中多次提到鈦。所以我想退一步來說,我可能無法對此發表評論,但力拓是否正在積極尋求精簡併重塑業務以回收資本並精簡?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • So I've seen that there are some articles around that. I can't comment on rumors. But if you were actively doing anything, I could not make a presentation without talking about that, okay? We are streamlining things. By the way, as you can see, we are slightly going out of diamonds.

    我看到有一些關於此問題的文章。我無法對謠言發表評論。但是如果你正在積極地做某事,那麼我就無法在不談論這件事的情況下進行演示,好嗎?我們正在精簡流程。順便說一句,如您所見,我們的鑽石已經快用完了。

  • We closed Archil. Daivik is coming to an end at the end of the year. We took out the complexity of TRQ. We have sold a number of gold streams, et cetera, with good profit, et cetera. So we are streamlining the company, and there might be more to come.

    我們關閉了 Archil。Daivik 將於年底結束。我們消除了 TRQ 的複雜性。我們已經售出了許多黃金流等等,獲得了不錯的利潤等等。因此,我們正在精簡公司,並且可能會有更多措施。

  • Look, RTIT had low profitability in the first half. They had very difficult conditions. But the question is still, are we the best owner of it are we not? And I happily leave that for my successor.

    你看,RTIT 上半年的獲利能力很低。他們的條件非常艱苦。但問題仍然是,我們是它的最佳主人嗎?我很高興將這個任務留給我的繼任者。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Thanks so much. So I'll just return to the line. We have another one on the line, please, operator.

    非常感謝。因此我還是回到正題吧。接線員,我們還有另一位接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey.

    格林·勞科克,巴倫喬伊。

  • Glyn Lawcock - Director of Research

    Glyn Lawcock - Director of Research

  • Good morning, Jakob, to the extent you can comment, I'm just interested in your comments around the Glencore discussions. What was the attraction? Were they actually serious or just simply in passing? And can I take that to mean Rio as a company is contemplating a return to coal as well? Thanks.

    早上好,雅各布,就您的評論而言,我只是對您圍繞嘉能可討論的評論感興趣。有什麼吸引力?他們是認真的還是只是順便說一下?我是否可以認為這意味著力拓公司也在考慮重返煤炭產業?謝謝。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Well, thank you very much. First of all, I can't comment on rumor. So -- but it's amazing how much that has been written about something which we don't really know whether has happened or not happened. So it's very difficult. But I will say to you right now, I don't think -- we've just in the previous question, talked about simplification. So I would be surprised that we are actively looking of going into coal at this point in time. Yes, I'm sorry, there's not much more I can say about that.

    嗯,非常感謝。首先,我無法對謠言發表評論。所以——但令人驚訝的是,對於一些我們不知道是否發生過的事情,人們已經寫瞭如此多的內容。所以這非常困難。但我現在要告訴你,我不認為──我們剛才在上一個問題中討論了簡化問題。因此,我很驚訝我們此時正在積極考慮進軍煤炭產業。是的,很抱歉,關於這一點我沒什麼好說的。

  • I do think you have to think about. This is not about are we for M&A or are we against M&A? No, the point is just very simple. There are good deals and they're bad deals, and we are trying to pursue the good deals. I believe that the deals like we have done like TRQ, like Metalco, like Rincon and like Arcadium that they are good deals, but time will tell.

    我確實認為你必須考慮一下。這並不是關於我們是否支持併購或反對併購的問題。不,重點很簡單。有好的交易,也有壞的交易,我們正在努力追求好的交易。我相信我們所做的交易,例如 TRQ、Metalco、Rincon 和 Arcadium,都是很好的交易,但時間會證明一切。

  • Paul Young - Analyst

    Paul Young - Analyst

  • No worries, thanks, Jacob, all the best for the future.

    不用擔心,謝謝,雅各布,祝你未來一切順利。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Okay, here at the front, please.

    好的,請到前面這邊。

  • Myles Allsop - Analyst

    Myles Allsop - Analyst

  • Miles Allsop at UBS. Just to clarify a couple of things, Peter, first, on the net debt and leverage. So we're just shy of $15 billion. It's relatively high compared to what you've enjoyed for the last decade or two. Are we right to assume that you would rather have lower leverage given the CapEx and the obvious cyclicality of the commodities on a look-forward basis. Is this the high end of the range as we look at it?

    瑞銀的 Miles Allsop。彼得,我只想澄清幾件事,首先是關於淨債務和槓桿。因此,我們的總額僅略低於 150 億美元。與過去十年或二十年所享受的相比,這個數字相對較高。考慮到資本支出和商品明顯的周期性,我們是否可以正確地假設您寧願降低槓桿率?就我們看來,這是該範圍的高端嗎?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Well, I mean, I think it's kind of as I said at a level we feel comfortable with. I mean if you look at our balance sheet, the debt might be high, but the balance sheet is much bigger than it has been previously, and the cash flows are much bigger. So as Jakob says, I mean, it's a very comfortable level of gearing for the size of the company now.

    嗯,我的意思是,我認為這就像我說的,達到了我們感到舒服的水平。我的意思是,如果你看一下我們的資產負債表,債務可能很高,但資產負債表比以前大得多,現金流也大得多。正如雅各所說,我的意思是,對於目前的公司規模來說,這是一個非常舒適的槓桿水平。

  • And so I just think sometimes looking back over decades to say net debt was lower is not probably the most useful sort of comparison. So no, we feel very comfortable. I mean, I think A credit rating gives us flexibility to manage up from where we are and to absorb whatever cycle throw at us and to maintain doing our business because I think what I've learned is just being very consistent about how you invest and how you sort of run our businesses the way you deliver most value for shareholders and we'll use the balance sheet to enable that.

    因此,我認為,有時回顧過去幾十年,說淨債務較低可能不是最有用的比較。所以不,我們覺得很舒服。我的意思是,我認為信用評級讓我們能夠靈活地從現狀進行管理,吸收週期給我們帶來的影響,並繼續開展業務,因為我認為我所學到的就是在投資方式和經營業務的方式上保持一致,為股東創造最大價值,我們將使用資產負債表來實現這一點。

  • Myles Allsop - Analyst

    Myles Allsop - Analyst

  • So we should assume it's kind of reset at this sort of level, and it was under geared historically is the right way of thinking about it?

    所以我們應該假設它在這種層面上有所重置,而且從歷史上看它處於低位,這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • I wouldn't sort of even use that answer. I would just say you're using the balance sheet to sort of enable strategy and to enable us to run the businesses as well as we can for shareholders. And that's what we've done. I mean we view some of the capacity for Arcadium. We think that really builds a long-term business for the future of a shareholders. I mean, that's what you can enable with a strong balance sheet.

    我什至不會使用這個答案。我只想說,您正在使用資產負債表來製定策略,並使我們能夠為股東盡可能好地經營業務。我們也確實這麼做了。我的意思是我們查看了 Arcadium 的一些容量。我們認為這確實為股東的未來建立了長期業務。我的意思是,強大的資產負債表可以實現這一點。

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Maybe There was not a lot of appetite from the shareholders for equity financing of Arcadium. And you will also see, I think, Peter's team have done a tremendous job of raising what is it, 30, 40 years bonds. So we have long maturity on the debt and the interest cost a fraction of our EBITDA. So I feel very comfortable.

    也許股東對 Arcadium 的股權融資沒有太大的興趣。我認為,您還會看到,彼得的團隊在發行 30 年期、40 年期債券方面做了大量工作。因此,我們的債務期限很長,利息成本只是 EBITDA 的一小部分。所以我覺得很舒服。

  • Myles Allsop - Analyst

    Myles Allsop - Analyst

  • Maybe just on the dividend as well. Obviously, the unwavering focus, as you said, and I think Jakob did a great job at the Capital Markets Day, kind of hammering that home last year. But there is still a debate around is it a 50% payout or a 60% payout when it comes to the final. And you've been very consistent with 60% for the full year with the final. How should we think about it with this transition now? Should we still -- is this a Board Kind of Resolute 60% for the full year? Or could we see kind of come down like we've seen with BHP, for example?

    或許也只是股息。顯然,正如您所說,堅定不移的專注,我認為雅各在去年的資本市場日上做得很好,充分證明了這一點。但關於最終賠付比例是 50% 還是 60% 仍有爭議。而你的全年期末考成績一直非常穩定,達到 60%。我們現在該如何看待這項轉變?我們是否仍應該——這是董事會全年堅決的 60% 嗎?或者我們是否可以看到像必和必拓那樣的下降?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • Sure. But look, first of all, your CFO will continue to be Peter. Simon will not say anything right today. And ultimately, it's a Board decision. And the Board has been unwavering in their support of the 60% as a practice and so far, it hasn't given us excessive leverage.

    當然。但首先,你的財務長將繼續是彼得。西蒙今天不會說任何正確的話。最終,這是董事會的決定。董事會始終堅定不移地支持 60% 的做法,到目前為止,它並沒有給我們太多的槓桿。

  • I think the way to think about things is we're building a lot of dividend capabilities. Growth -- profitable growth means more earnings, means more dividend capability. You just see now what is -- all the money we have sand into OT is coming back now. And very soon, we'll start seeing the money we are putting into Simandou coming back, et cetera.

    我認為思考問題的方式是我們正在建立大量的股息能力。成長-獲利成長意味著更多的收益,意味著更多的分紅能力。現在您看到的是——我們投入 OT 的所有資金現在都回來了。很快我們就會看到我們投入西芒杜的資金得到回報等等。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Do you want to just hand it behind you?

    你想把它遞到身後嗎?

  • Alan Spence - Analyst

    Alan Spence - Analyst

  • Thanks for the presentation. Alan Spence, BNP Paribas Exane. Thinking about portfolio simplification again, you talked about asking yourself, are you the best operator of it. But also assets, of course, need to make a return. So is it return on capital employed or another metric? What's the minimum level you need to see across the asset base as well as being the best operator?

    謝謝你的演講。艾倫·斯賓塞,法國巴黎銀行 Exane。再次思考投資組合簡化,您談到問自己,您是投資組合的最佳操作者嗎?但當然,資產也需要獲得回報。那麼它是資本使用報酬率還是其他指標呢?您需要了解資產基礎的最低水準是什麼,才能成為最佳營運商?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • We don't -- I mean, ultimately, it's about creating NPV. And if you are having an asset that is not performing very well and you're able to make it much better, then you actually create value. It's probably not possible to get all our businesses to the incredible good profitability level of iron ore, but that's not the purpose of it. I mean step back, financial theory, it's about creating NPV to the company.

    我們不會——我的意思是,最終,這是關於創建 NPV。如果你擁有的資產表現不佳,而你能夠使其變得更好,那麼你實際上就創造了價值。我們可能無法讓所有業務達到鐵礦石那樣令人難以置信的良好盈利水平,但這不是我們的目的。我的意思是,退一步來說,金融理論是為公司創造淨現值。

  • So if you can just improve things, you create value. Having said that, I'm very happy that 3 out of 4 product groups have double-digit return on capital employed. What do you think, Peter?

    因此,只要你能夠改善事物,你就能創造價值。話雖如此,我很高興看到四分之三的產品組擁有兩位數的資本回報率。彼得,您覺得怎麼樣?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • No, I think that's exactly right. I mean, yes, I mean aluminum had a very, very strong return on capital employed few years, that's grown massively over the last few years. That's what we must see as improving our businesses and delivering for shareholders.

    不,我認為完全正確。我的意思是,是的,鋁的資本回報率在過去幾年非常非常高,並且在過去幾年中大幅增長。我們必須將此視為改善我們的業務並為股東帶來回報。

  • Alan Spence - Analyst

    Alan Spence - Analyst

  • And the operational FTEs were down 2% year-on-year. I'm assuming that doesn't include contractors. Do you have a sense of if you included contractors would it also be lower?

    營運全職員工數較去年同期下降了 2%。我假設這不包括承包商。您是否覺得如果包括承包商的話,這個數字是否也會更低?

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • So it's across the safety. So it's across the board of contractors as well.

    所以這是安全的。所以這也是對所有承包商而言的。

  • Alan Spence - Analyst

    Alan Spence - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Richard Hatch - Analyst

    Richard Hatch - Analyst

  • Good morning, Richard Hatch from Berenberg. First point, I note that your underlying earnings by business unit has been removed from the disclosure. I just wonder if you might be able to add that back in just for the sell-side community to better understand your business --

    早安,我是來自貝倫貝格的理查德·哈奇。第一點,我注意到你們按業務部門劃分的基本收益已從披露中刪除。我只是想知道您是否可以將其重新添加,以便賣方社區更好地了解您的業務--

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • I agree, tell the story, Peter.

    我同意,講這個故事吧,彼得。

  • Richard Hatch - Analyst

    Richard Hatch - Analyst

  • It's not.

    它不是。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • He just simplified our reporting. I mean, there's various reasons but we simplified our reporting in line with peers. So --

    他只是簡化了我們的報道。我的意思是,原因有很多,但我們根據同行簡化了報告。所以--

  • Richard Hatch - Analyst

    Richard Hatch - Analyst

  • Makes it more complicated for us to understand. Second point, I'm sorry, I'd have to challenge you on your comment on the aluminum business. So bauxite prices, alumina prices have been very high. But if you look at the North American aluminum business, margins have really deteriorated and your cash flow negative. So what's going on there?

    使我們理解起來更加複雜。第二點,很抱歉,我必須對您對鋁業務的評論提出質疑。因此鋁土礦價格、氧化鋁價格一直很高。但如果你看看北美鋁業,利潤率確實下降了,現金流也為負。那麼那裡發生了什麼事?

  • I appreciate there's a tariff element to it perhaps, but what's going on with the cost base and the same gauge of Pacific Aluminum. And then secondly, just on IOC, I know I keep going on about IOC. But there's a step change in cost in this business. It's gone up more so what's going on because it isn't getting better.

    我知道這其中可能涉及關稅因素,但成本基礎和太平洋鋁業的相同規格又是怎麼回事呢?其次,僅就 IOC 而言,我知道我一直在談論 IOC。但這個行業的成本卻發生了巨大變化。它已經漲得更多了,這是怎麼回事?因為情況並沒有好轉。

  • Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Peter Cunningham - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • So Richard, I think the point on aluminum is there's just a transfer price because of the way, alumina prices were much higher. So if you look at the profitability of the whole thing, then you can -- you have a much clearer picture of performance because effectively, we are transferring alumina into our smelters at spot price with a quarterly lag. So it's just that's what drives the lower profitability. It's purely alumina prices. Underlying that, the businesses are performing better and better.

    所以理查德,我認為鋁的重點是存在轉移價格,因為氧化鋁價格高得多。因此,如果你看一下整個項目的盈利能力,那麼你就可以——對業績有更清晰的了解,因為實際上,我們以現貨價格將氧化鋁轉移到我們的冶煉廠,並且存在季度滯後。所以這就是導致獲利能力下降的原因。這純粹是氧化鋁價格。從根本上來說,企業的表現越來越好。

  • In terms of IOC, it was down. I mean, I think EBITDA was down $540 million down to just over $200 million. But a lot of that, again, was price. I mean, in fact, pellet price was more hit than the 62% price. So it was down about 15% price.

    就 IOC 而言,它有所下降。我的意思是,我認為 EBITDA 下降了 5.4 億美元,降至略高於 2 億美元。但其中很大一部分還是價格因素。我的意思是,事實上,顆粒價格受到的衝擊比 62% 的價格更大。因此價格下降了約 15%。

  • They also had an insurance claim last year. And they're also having to put more sort of work into the mine to really position the business for the future. And it's that probably that you're seeing on costs that we really are very focused on how do we really sort of put the mine in good shape so that we can see the full potential of this business. It's just a huge focus for the team and that really gives us a platform for the future.

    他們去年也提出保險索賠。他們還必須在礦山上投入更多的工作,以便為未來的業務做好真正的準備。您可能已經看到了成本問題,我們真正關注的是如何讓礦場真正處於良好狀態,以便我們能夠充分發揮這項業務的潛力。這只是團隊關注的重點,它確實為我們的未來提供了一個平台。

  • Richard Hatch - Analyst

    Richard Hatch - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • One last -- I'm looking at the cost we have literally 60 seconds.

    最後一點——我正在看成本,我們實際上有 60 秒。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This will be on Simandou. So firstly, the project is done. So it's derisked pretty much. So a, are you the best operator? Or is it the Chinese given they have been instrumental in building the project.

    這將在西芒杜舉行。首先,項目已經完成。因此它的風險基本上被降低了。那麼,你是最好的操作員嗎?或者是中國人,因為他們在該項目建設中發揮了重要作用。

  • Secondly, could Simandou be used as a tool to get Chinalco to sell their stake, i.e., sell Simandou stake to the Chinalco and kind of get their stake down? Is that something that's on the table?

    其次,西芒杜能否成為迫使中鋁出售其股份的工具,即將西芒杜股份出售給中鋁,降低中鋁的持股比例?這是正在討論的事情嗎?

  • Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

    Jakob Stausholm - Chief Executive, Executive Director

  • We certainly love the structure. I mean it works well. And the reality is the most competitive advantage that the Chinese have is in developing assets. We bring an awful lot in terms of knowing how to operate in a country like Guinea in terms of ESG standards that I was just trying to play towards all the great things our partners are contributing, but I will say to you, we are also bringing a lot to the table.

    我們確實喜歡這個結構。我的意思是它效果很好。而事實上,中國人最大的競爭優勢在於開發資產。就 ESG 標準而言,我們在如何在幾內亞這樣的國家開展業務方面擁有豐富的經驗,我只是想發揮我們合作夥伴所做的所有偉大貢獻,但我要告訴你們,我們也做出了許多貢獻。

  • And I would find it very difficult to see that we would participate in developing an iron ore assets. We are the world's largest producer of iron ore, just to retrench from that iron ore, but you should never say no, but it's certainly not something we are planning for.

    我發現我們很難參與開發鐵礦石資產。我們是世界上最大的鐵礦石生產商,只是為了減少鐵礦石產量,但你永遠不應該說不,但這絕對不是我們計劃的事情。

  • Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

    Rachel Arellano - Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you. So thanks to everyone for joining us today. For those online, we conclude our time with you now. For those here in London, I welcome you to now join us for light refreshments just outside the theater. Thank you again. And with that, I conclude our presentation today.

    好的。謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們。對於那些在線的人,我們現在結束與你們在一起的時間。對於在倫敦的各位,我歡迎你們現在來劇院外面和我們一起享用茶點。再次感謝您。今天的演講到此結束。