Reynolds Consumer Products Inc (REYN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Reynolds Consumer Products Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mark Swartzberg. Thank you. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到雷諾消費品公司 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （接線員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者 Mark Swartzberg。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Reynolds Consumer Products Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call is being simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com. Our earnings press release and accompanying presentation slides are also available on the website.

謝謝你，運營商。大家早上好，感謝您參加雷諾消費品第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議同時在公司網站 reynoldsconsumerproducts.com 的投資者關係部分進行網絡直播。我們的收益新聞稿和隨附的演示幻燈片也可在網站上找到。

With me on the call today are Lance Mitchell, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Graham, our Chief Financial Officer. For our agenda this morning, Lance will focus his remarks on fourth quarter performance and the Reynolds' Cooking & Baking recovery plan as well as discussion of our performance drivers, while Michael will review our fourth quarter and full year financials as well as our 2023 outlook. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

今天和我一起打電話的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Lance Mitchell；和我們的首席財務官 Michael Graham。對於今天上午的議程，Lance 將重點關注第四季度業績和 Reynolds 的 Cooking & Baking 恢復計劃以及對我們業績推動因素的討論，而 Michael 將回顧我們第四季度和全年的財務狀況以及我們的 2023 年展望.在準備好的評論之後，我們將開始提問。

Before we begin, I would like to provide a few reminders. First, this morning's discussion may contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described today. Please refer to our Risk Factors section in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q. Please note, the company does not intend to update or alter these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances arising after the call.

在我們開始之前，我想提供一些提醒。首先，今天上午的討論可能包含基於當前預期和信念的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險、不確定性和環境變化的影響，可能導致實際結果和結果與今天描述的結果大不相同。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的風險因素部分，包括我們的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告。請注意，公司無意更新或更改這些前瞻性陳述以反映電話會議後發生的事件或情況。

Second, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release, investor presentation deck and Form 10-K, copies of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website.

其次，在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 或調整後的財務指標。這些 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬可在我們的收益新聞稿、投資者演示文稿和 10-K 表格中找到，其副本可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Lance Mitchell.

現在我想把電話轉給 Lance Mitchell。

Thank you, Mark. Thanks to our people, our integrated brand and store brand business model and our unwavering commitment to category leadership. We made strong progress on our key initiatives in 2022. We entered 2023 with increased market share in our largest categories, service returned to pre-pandemic levels and profitability restored in 3 of our 4 business segments. However, as you can see from our fourth quarter results, the Reynolds Cooking & Baking business segment performance fell short of our expectations. On our earnings call in November, we reported that the Reynolds Cooking & Baking business segment entered the fourth quarter having experienced periods of unplanned equipment downtime, resulting in additional manufacturing costs and impacting our ability to adequately supply customers.

謝謝你，馬克。感謝我們的員工、我們的綜合品牌和商店品牌商業模式以及我們對品類領導地位的堅定承諾。我們在 2022 年的主要舉措上取得了重大進展。進入 2023 年，我們最大類別的市場份額增加，服務恢復到大流行前水平，我們 4 個業務部門中的 3 個恢復盈利能力。然而，正如您從我們第四季度的業績中看到的那樣，Reynolds Cooking & Baking 業務部門的業績低於我們的預期。在我們 11 月份的財報電話會議上，我們報告說雷諾烹飪和烘焙業務部門進入第四季度時經歷了計劃外的設備停機，導致額外的製造成本並影響我們為客戶提供充分供應的能力。

Equipment reliability remained challenging in the fourth quarter, driving inefficiencies and manufacturing costs higher than expected while also driving continued higher aluminum costs. These factors drove the EBITDA shortfall versus the expectations we shared with you in November.

設備可靠性在第四季度仍然充滿挑戰，導致效率低下和製造成本高於預期，同時也推動鋁成本持續走高。這些因素導致 EBITDA 與我們在 11 月份與您分享的預期相比存在不足。

In addition, while we were successful driving Reynolds Wrap share to the highest quarterly level for the year, household foil consumption was weaker than expected, also contributing to lower-than-anticipated net revenues for the quarter.

此外，雖然我們成功地將 Reynolds Wrap 份額推至年度最高季度水平，但家用鋁箔消費量低於預期，這也導致本季度淨收入低於預期。

Now let's turn to our plan to return Reynolds Cooking & Baking to historical levels of profitability. And as I do so, I want you to know that we entered 2023 with a thorough understanding of what has been impeding Reynolds Cooking & Baking margin recovery as well as the team and resources in place working to correct the issues impacting that business segment.

現在讓我們談談將 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 的盈利能力恢復到歷史水平的計劃。在我這樣做的同時，我想讓您知道，進入 2023 年時，我們對阻礙 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 利潤率恢復的因素以及致力於糾正影響該業務部門的問題的團隊和資源有了透徹的了解。

Key actions underpinning the Reynolds' recovery plan include following: management changes, including several key operational leadership roles; redesign of equipment reliability processes and practices; incorporating benchmarks and input from experts in operational excellence; return to pre-pandemic preventive maintenance disciplines and new initiatives focused on improving operational excellence, including implementation of condition-based monitoring and predictive maintenance, cross-functional teams focused on critical asset efficiencies, investments aimed at improving equipment reliability and performance and increased technical expertise alongside key production assets.

支持 Reynolds 恢復計劃的關鍵行動包括： 管理變革，包括幾個關鍵的運營領導角色；重新設計設備可靠性流程和實踐；納入卓越運營專家的基準和意見；恢復大流行前的預防性維護紀律和專注於提高卓越運營的新舉措，包括實施基於狀態的監測和預測性維護、專注於關鍵資產效率的跨職能團隊、旨在提高設備可靠性和性能的投資以及增加技術專長以及關鍵的生產資產。

We believe that these and all the improvements we are making to the Reynolds Cooking & Baking operations will not only drive a major improvement in manufacturing efficiencies, but also a decline in our use of the higher-cost supplemental purchases of milled aluminum that I mentioned previously. Mike will speak more to our expectations for phasing the Reynolds Cooking & Baking business segment earnings recovery.

我們相信，我們對 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 業務所做的這些以及所有改進不僅會推動製造效率的重大提高，而且還會減少我之前提到的對研磨鋁的高成本補充採購的使用.邁克將更多地談到我們對分階段雷諾烹飪和烘焙業務部門盈利復甦的期望。

Now let's review key drivers of our performance overall: pricing, consumer demand, innovation and manufacturing and supply chain capabilities. First, pricing. We continue to selectively increase trade promotions, which are expected to be up in 2023 versus 2022 levels. We also remain watchful of commodity trends and the cost of aluminum and resin is up versus end of December levels. On balance, I would describe the pricing environment as far more stable than it was either last year or in 2021.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們整體業績的主要驅動因素：定價、消費者需求、創新以及製造和供應鏈能力。第一，定價。我們繼續有選擇地增加貿易促銷活動，預計 2023 年貿易促銷活動將比 2022 年增加。我們還繼續關注大宗商品趨勢，鋁和樹脂的成本高於 12 月底的水平。總的來說，我認為定價環境比去年或 2021 年穩定得多。

Second, consumer demand. Our categories have settled into a new normal. And in 2023, we expect a return to household formation is our main driver of growth offset by inflation's continued impact on consumption and lapping of elevated demand in the first several months of 2022. We also entered 2023 in a position of strong category leadership. Consumption in many of our categories is up 5% or more since 2019, and we have built market share in our largest categories and in multiple adjacencies over this period. We've also gained additional share in these categories in 2022.

二是消費需求。我們的類別已經進入新常態。到 2023 年，我們預計家庭組建的回歸是我們增長的主要驅動力，但會被 2022 年前幾個月通貨膨脹對消費的持續影響和需求增加所抵消。進入 2023 年，我們也處於強大的品類領導地位。自 2019 年以來，我們許多類別的消費量增長了 5% 或更多，在此期間，我們在我們最大的類別和多個相鄰類別中建立了市場份額。 2022 年，我們還在這些類別中獲得了更多份額。

Reynolds Wrap's market share gains accelerated in the second half of 2022, driven by promotions to key price points, nearing price gaps to private label and consumers' appreciation of Reynolds Wrap performance advantages by comparison to private label foil.

Reynolds Wrap 的市場份額在 2022 年下半年加速增長，這是由於關鍵價位的促銷、接近自有品牌的價格差距以及消費者對 Reynolds Wrap 與自有品牌箔相比的性能優勢的認可。

In Waste bags, Hefty's household penetration increased in 2022. Hefty Waste bag brand increased buyers in almost every generational group, especially among millennials. And in disposable tableware, Hefty again gained share in 2022, driven by disposable plates, including our rapidly growing Hefty ECOSAVE line.

在垃圾袋方面，Hefty 的家庭滲透率在 2022 年有所增加。 Hefty 垃圾袋品牌在幾乎所有世代群體中的購買者都有所增加，尤其是在千禧一代中。在一次性餐具方面，Hefty 在一次性盤子（包括我們快速增長的 Hefty ECOSAVE 系列）的推動下，在 2022 年再次獲得份額。

Our third performance driver is innovation. Innovation remained a major source of volume in 2022. In 2023, we plan to continue leaning into the success by expanding distribution across a number of high-velocity products while also introducing multiple major new products and increasing our emphasis on sustainable solutions. In Reynolds Cooking & Baking, we plan to increase distribution of Reynolds Wrap Pitmaster Foil and Reynolds Kitchens Air Fryer Liners among others, while also introducing Reynolds Kitchen stay flat parchment and other products designed to meet the increase in cooking and baking among young adults and other major segments of the population.

我們的第三個績效驅動因素是創新。創新仍然是 2022 年銷量的主要來源。到 2023 年，我們計劃通過擴大一些高速產品的分銷，同時推出多種主要新產品，並更加重視可持續解決方案，繼續取得成功。在 Reynolds Cooking & Baking，我們計劃增加 Reynolds Wrap Pitmaster Foil 和 Reynolds Kitchens Air Fryer Liners 等產品的分銷，同時還推出 Reynolds Kitchen stay flat parchment 和其他產品，旨在滿足年輕人和其他人越來越多的烹飪和烘焙需求人口的主要部分。

In Waste & Storage, we plan further distribution gains for our portfolio of Hefty Fabuloso products, including new Hefty 4 & 8 gallon drawstring trash bags and we're excited to announce that Hefty Trash Bags is launching a new Fabuloso Refreshing Lemon scent in the first quarter. In dollar sales, Refreshing Lemon is the #2 scent of Fabuloso multiple purpose cleaners and Lemon citrus scented waste bags are growing at 2x the rate of the larger waste bag category.

在廢物和儲存方面，我們計劃進一步擴大我們的 Hefty Fabuloso 產品組合的分銷收益，包括新的 Hefty 4 加侖和 8 加侖拉繩垃圾袋，我們很高興地宣布 Hefty Trash Bags 將在第一季度推出新的 Fabuloso 清爽檸檬香味四分之一。以美元銷售額計算，清爽檸檬是 Fabuloso 多用途清潔劑中排名第二的香味，檸檬柑橘味垃圾袋的增長速度是較大垃圾袋類別的 2 倍。

We're also doing a lot in the area of sustainable solutions. Reynolds Kitchens Butcher Paper and wax paper are now compostable. Hefty ECOSAVE continues to grow rapidly with additional strong growth expected, driven by SKU expansion, further distribution gains and continuing strong consumer demand. Early results for the Hefty Compostable Printed Paper Plates also gives us confidence in our expansion plans for this new solution. And in Waste & Storage, a wide range of sustainable products are lined up for commercialization. For example, our recently launched private label food bag made from 20% renewable plant and ocean materials is off to a strong start.

我們還在可持續解決方案領域做了大量工作。 Reynolds Kitchens Butcher 紙和蠟紙現在可以堆肥。在 SKU 擴張、進一步的分銷收益和持續強勁的消費者需求的推動下，大量 ECOSAVE 繼續快速增長，預計還會有額外的強勁增長。 Hefty 可堆肥印刷紙盤的早期結果也讓我們對這一新解決方案的擴展計劃充滿信心。在 Waste & Storage 中，範圍廣泛的可持續產品已準備好進行商業化。例如，我們最近推出的自有品牌食品袋由 20% 的可再生植物和海洋材料製成，開局良好。

Manufacturing and supply chain is our fourth driver of performance. Our entire organization is focused on the execution of the Reynolds Cooking & Baking business segment recovery plan. In addition, we've expanded the scope of Reyvolution cost savings, giving us confidence in another year of at least 200 basis points of incremental margin as a source of funds for reinvestment and margin expansion. Legacy Reyvolution programs still have considerable runway, and we are undertaking new procurement and operations-related programs in 2023 as well.

製造和供應鍊是我們的第四個績效驅動因素。我們整個組織都專注於執行 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 業務部門的恢復計劃。此外，我們擴大了 Reyvolution 成本節約的範圍，使我們有信心在另一年至少增加 200 個基點的利潤率作為再投資和利潤率擴張的資金來源。舊版 Reyvolution 計劃仍有相當長的路要走，我們也在 2023 年開展新的採購和運營相關計劃。

Before I turn the call over to Michael on your questions, I'd like to leave you with the following. Our people have responded to the many opportunities and challenges in the last 3 years with exceptional resilience and resolve to serve our customers, combat inflation and leverage our integrated brand and store brand business model to help consumers simplify their daily lives and make our business stronger. Our market share, our category consumption levels and full recovery of pre-pandemic profitability in 3 of our 4 business segments are proof points of our success. Looking forward, the Reynolds Recovery Plan is in place, and I have the utmost confidence in our plan, our ability to deliver a strong recovery of that segment's profitability. I'm extremely proud of the entire RCP team, and we look forward to earnings growth in 2023 and the years to come.

在我就你的問題將電話轉給邁克爾之前，我想給你留下以下內容。在過去 3 年中，我們的員工以非凡的韌性和決心應對了許多機遇和挑戰，以服務我們的客戶、抗擊通貨膨脹並利用我們的綜合品牌和商店品牌業務模式來幫助消費者簡化他們的日常生活並使我們的業務更強大。我們的市場份額、我們的品類消費水平以及我們 4 個業務部門中的 3 個業務全面恢復大流行前的盈利能力是我們成功的證明。展望未來，雷諾復甦計劃已經到位，我對我們的計劃以及我們實現該部門盈利能力強勁復甦的能力充滿信心。我為整個 RCP 團隊感到非常自豪，我們期待 2023 年和未來幾年的收益增長。

With that, over to you, Michael.

有了這個，就交給你了，邁克爾。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a review of our full year 2022 and fourth quarter financial results before turning to our 2023 outlook and the actions we are taking to return to pre-pandemic profitability this year. For the fiscal year 2022, net revenues were a record $3.8 billion, up 7% from $3.6 billion in the prior year. This growth was driven by pricing up 13%, taken in response to increased material, manufacturing and logistics costs and partially offset by lower volume. Volume was lower driven by price elasticity and increased activity outside the home, which was partially offset by share gains in household foil, waste bags, disposable tableware and other categories.

謝謝你，蘭斯，大家早上好。我將首先回顧我們 2022 年全年和第四季度的財務業績，然後再談談我們的 2023 年展望以及我們為在今年恢復大流行前的盈利能力而採取的行動。 2022 財年，淨收入達到創紀錄的 38 億美元，比上年的 36 億美元增長 7%。這一增長是由價格上漲 13% 推動的，這是由於材料、製造和物流成本增加，部分被銷量下降所抵消。價格彈性和家庭以外活動的增加推動銷量下降，這部分被家用箔紙、垃圾袋、一次性餐具和其他類別的份額增長所抵消。

Adjusted EBITDA was $546 million, down 9% from $601 million in the prior year due to lower volume and higher advertising costs, partially offset by the timing of pricing actions to recover increased material, manufacturing and logistics costs. Operational inefficiencies in the Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment and continued supplemental purchases of milled aluminum at a premium to our cost drove the EBITDA disappointment versus our previously provided outlook. Lower household foil consumption, together with higher cost aluminum also contributed to the earnings decrease. Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $1.28 versus $1.59 in the prior year.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.46 億美元，比上一年的 6.01 億美元下降 9%，原因是銷量下降和廣告成本上升，部分抵消了為收回增加的材料、製造和物流成本而採取的定價行動的時機。 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 部門的運營效率低下，以及繼續以高於我們成本的價格補充購買磨鋁，導致 EBITDA 與我們之前提供的前景相比令人失望。較低的家庭鋁箔消費量以及較高的鋁成本也導致收益下降。本年度調整後每股收益為 1.28 美元，上年為 1.59 美元。

Turning to our fourth quarter results. We delivered a record net revenue of $1.1 billion during the fourth quarter, up 7% from the prior year's Q4 of $1 billion. And in terms of profitability, each of Hefty Waste & Storage, Hefty Tableware and Presto segments fully recovered to pre-pandemic profitability while also reporting record earnings with improvement driving a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $200 million by comparison to $181 million in the prior year.

轉向我們的第四季度業績。我們在第四季度實現了創紀錄的 11 億美元淨收入，比去年第四季度的 10 億美元增長了 7%。就盈利能力而言，Hefty Waste & Storage、Hefty Tableware 和 Presto 的每個細分市場都完全恢復到大流行前的盈利能力，同時還報告了創紀錄的收益，並推動調整後 EBITDA 增長 10% 至 2 億美元，而同期為 1.81 億美元去年。

Operational inefficiencies in the Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment and continued supplemental purchases of milled aluminum at a premium to our costs drove the EBITDA disappointment versus our previously provided outlook. Lower household foil consumption together with higher-cost aluminum also contributed to the earnings decrease. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter increased 4% to $0.53 compared to $0.51 in the prior period unpacking our volume performance, elasticity and increased consumer activity outside of the home drove a 4% volume decline, driven by a 10% decrease in Reynolds Cooking & Baking volume. However, all 4 segments did gain volume share in their largest categories in tracked channels, driven by innovation, strong retail partnership and service. Hefty Tableware and Presto delivered volume increases in the quarter driven by innovation and share gains.

Reynolds Cooking & Baking 部門的運營效率低下，以及繼續以高於我們成本的價格補充購買磨鋁，導致 EBITDA 與我們之前提供的前景相比令人失望。較低的家庭鋁箔消費量和較高的鋁成本也導致收益下降。本季度調整後的每股收益增長 4% 至 0.53 美元，而上一期間為 0.51 美元，這表明我們的銷量表現、彈性和家庭以外的消費者活動增加導致銷量下降 4%，這是由於 Reynolds Cooking &烘焙量。然而，在創新、強大的零售合作夥伴關係和服務的推動下，所有 4 個細分市場在跟踪渠道中的最大類別中都獲得了銷量份額。在創新和份額增長的推動下，Hefty Tableware 和 Presto 在本季度實現了銷量增長。

Looking ahead, I'll start with the summary of our earnings outlook for the full year 2023, followed by our expectations for the first quarter. I will then turn to the topic we are all keen to discuss in more detail, our key performance drivers, our expectations for Reynolds Cooking & Baking and more information on the first quarter guide and post first quarter expectations. For the full year 2023, we expect continued pressure from elasticities and our net revenues to be flat, plus or minus 1%, with pricing flat to slightly up on net revenues of $3.8 billion in 2022.

展望未來，我將首先總結我們對 2023 年全年的盈利前景，然後是我們對第一季度的預期。然後，我將轉向我們都熱衷於更詳細地討論的話題、我們的關鍵績效驅動因素、我們對 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 的期望以及有關第一季度指南和第一季度預期的更多信息。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計彈性帶來的持續壓力和我們的淨收入將持平，正負 1%，定價持平至略高於 2022 年 38 億美元的淨收入。

We expect rates for key commodities to be relatively stable by comparison to the levels that we saw at the end of January. We expect SG&A to increase to approximately $420 million, driven by compensation related comparisons and increased investments in advertising and market research. We expect Reyvolution related cost savings to be a source of approximately 200 basis points of incremental margin for reinvestment and potential contribution to margin expansion.

與 1 月底的水平相比，我們預計主要商品的利率將相對穩定。我們預計 SG&A 將增加到約 4.2 億美元，這主要是受薪酬相關比較以及廣告和市場研究投資增加的推動。我們預計與 Reyvolution 相關的成本節約將成為再投資增量利潤率約 200 個基點的來源，並可能對利潤率擴張做出貢獻。

In 2022, Reyvolution growth initiatives were a source of approximately 2 percentage points of revenue, and we expect a similar contribution from Reyvolution growth initiatives in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $605 million to $635 million, which is a low double-digit to mid-teen increase by comparison to results in the prior year and EPS to be in the range of $1.30 to $1.41 per share.

2022 年，Reyvolution 增長計劃約佔收入的 2 個百分點，我們預計 2023 年 Reyvolution 增長計劃也將做出類似的貢獻。調整後的 EBITDA 將在 6.05 億美元至 6.35 億美元之間，這是一個較低的兩倍與上一年的結果相比，每股收益增長了 1.30 美元至 1.41 美元。

Other key assumptions for the year include depreciation and amortization of approximately $120 million, interest expense of approximately $120 million as well and an effective tax rate of approximately 25% and capital spending of approximately $120 million to $130 million. For the first quarter, we expect net revenues to be flat, plus or minus 1%, with pricing up mid-single digit on net revenues of $845 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $75 million to $85 million, down by comparison to adjusted EBITDA of $112 million in the prior year period and EPS to be in the range of $0.06 to $0.09 per share.

本年度的其他主要假設包括約 1.2 億美元的折舊和攤銷、約 1.2 億美元的利息支出以及約 25% 的有效稅率和約 1.2 億美元至 1.3 億美元的資本支出。對於第一季度，我們預計淨收入將持平，上下浮動 1%，上年同期的淨收入為 8.45 億美元，定價為中等個位數。調整後的 EBITDA 介於 7500 萬美元至 8500 萬美元之間，低於去年同期調整後的 EBITDA 1.12 億美元，每股收益介於 0.06 美元至 0.09 美元之間。

Now let's talk about the performance drivers and phasing, including the first quarter guide. We entered 2023 with margins benefiting from pricing alignment to the current cost environment and expect the significant improvement, which is evident in the fourth quarter results to drive adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion on an annual basis as well. In terms of segment performance, we expect 2023 results to be driven by continued solid performance for Hefty Waste & Storage, Hefty Tableware and Presto and improving performance for Reynolds Cooking & Baking as we move through the year.

現在讓我們談談性能驅動因素和分階段，包括第一季度指南。進入 2023 年，我們的利潤率受益於與當前成本環境保持一致的定價，並預計第四季度業績將明顯改善，這也將推動調整後的 EBITDA 增長和利潤率同比增長。就分部業績而言，我們預計 2023 年的業績將受到 Hefty Waste & Storage、Hefty Tableware 和 Presto 的持續穩健業績以及 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 業績的改善推動。

Focusing on the first quarter, while volume comparisons are more challenging in the quarter and expect it to be a drag on year-on-year EBITDA growth, the major driver of the expected decline in year-on-year adjusted EBITDA is Reynolds Cooking & Baking performance. Between Reynolds Cooking & Baking's fourth quarter operational inefficiencies and continued supplemental purchase of milled aluminum at a premium to our costs, we expect limited, if any, EBITDA for Reynolds Cooking & Baking in the quarter. Obviously, our first quarter expectations are far shorter what we normally expect for Reynolds Cooking & Baking profitability. And with that in mind, I thought it would be helpful to elaborate on the factors driving our confidence in earnings growth after the first quarter.

關注第一季度，雖然該季度的銷量比較更具挑戰性，預計這將拖累 EBITDA 同比增長，但預計調整後 EBITDA 同比下降的主要驅動因素是 Reynolds Cooking &烘焙性能。在 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 第四季度運營效率低下和繼續以高於我們成本的價格補充購買磨鋁之間，我們預計本季度 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 的 EBITDA 有限（如果有的話）。顯然，我們第一季度的預期遠低於我們通常對 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 盈利能力的預期。考慮到這一點，我認為詳細說明推動我們對第一季度後盈利增長充滿信心的因素會有所幫助。

Each of our business segments is winning at retail and entered 2023 with increased share in our largest categories. We have the in-store display, promotions and advertising plans in place to reinforce and build category leadership and profitability in all of our business segments. Pre-pandemic profitability is already recovered in 3 business segments and the level of pricing and margin achieved in the fourth quarter translates into margin expansion for these businesses in 2023. After the first quarter, we expect to see a lot less reliance upon supplemental milled aluminum, in turn, resulting in a sizable improvement in average product costs.

我們的每個業務部門都在零售領域取得成功，進入 2023 年，我們最大類別的份額有所增加。我們制定了店內展示、促銷和廣告計劃，以加強和建立我們所有業務部門的品類領導地位和盈利能力。大流行前的盈利能力已經在 3 個業務部門恢復，第四季度實現的定價和利潤率水平轉化為這些業務在 2023 年的利潤率擴張。第一季度之後，我們預計對補充研磨鋁的依賴會大大減少，進而導致平均產品成本的顯著改善。

And our other big headwind in Reynolds Cooking & Baking is operational inefficiencies. We expect operational efficiencies to improve over the course of the first quarter and continued to improve during the second quarter, driving a significant increase in earnings by comparison to the first quarter results and to return to pre-pandemic profitability as we entered the third quarter.

我們在 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 的另一大不利因素是運營效率低下。我們預計運營效率將在第一季度得到改善，並在第二季度繼續改善，與第一季度相比，收入將大幅增長，並在進入第三季度時恢復到大流行前的盈利能力。

Now before I turn the call back over to Mark and your questions, I'd like to leave you with the following few thoughts on cash flow. We remain committed to leading our categories and driving progress towards recovering pre-pandemic profitability across our business leading to stronger cash flows. Our increased emphasis on cash conversion benefited fourth quarter results, and we expect further cash flow gains in 2023 as we grow earnings, further emphasize balance sheet efficiency and maintain capital spending discipline. All of this is expected to drive returns and debt pay-down this year. And finally, our capital allocation priorities are unchanged.

現在，在我將電話轉回給馬克和你的問題之前，我想給你留下以下關於現金流的一些想法。我們仍然致力於引領我們的類別，並推動我們的業務在恢復大流行前的盈利能力方面取得進展，從而帶來更強勁的現金流。我們更加重視現金轉換有利於第四季度的業績，我們預計隨著收益的增長，2023 年的現金流量將進一步增加，進一步強調資產負債表效率並保持資本支出紀律。所有這些都有望推動今年的回報和債務償還。最後，我們的資本配置優先順序沒有改變。

With that, I'll hand the call back over to Mark.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給馬克。

Thank you, Michael. As I turn the call over to the operator for your questions, in the interest of time, we ask that you please ask 1 question and a follow-up and then rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator?

謝謝你，邁克爾。當我將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題時，為了節省時間，我們要求您提出 1 個問題和後續跟進，如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I guess to start at a kind of high level and appreciating you went through in kind of key bullets on this plan to recover in the Cooking & Baking business. I guess upon first getting to know the company, my assumption was this is going to be a great manufacturing operation, right? Reynolds comes out of packaging background that this is a manufacturing company. And then my positive surprise with how -- what great marketers the company is.

我想從一個高層次開始，感謝你在這個計劃中經歷了一些關鍵的項目，以恢復烹飪和烘焙業務。我想在第一次了解這家公司時，我的假設是這將是一家很棒的製造企業，對吧？ Reynolds 出身於包裝行業，這是一家製造公司。然後我對公司是多麼出色的營銷人員感到非常驚訝。

But now what we're finding is where there seem to be cracks in the -- what I thought was core, right, the manufacturing. So I just -- knowing you've offered words already on the plan to repair. I just need to go back and understand a little bit better what's going on in terms of "equipment reliability?" Is it a matter of underinvestment in capital? I just -- I'm struggling with kind of what's broken down operationally because last quarter, when you had this downtime, you discussed it as temporary in nature. And so there's something here that wasn't temporary, it was a misunderstanding of the issues that began in the third quarter. So just a little bit more color on all that would really be great.

但現在我們發現的是似乎存在裂縫的地方 - 我認為是核心，對，製造。所以我只是 - 知道您已經就修復計劃提出了建議。我只需要回過頭來更好地了解“設備可靠性”方面的情況。是資金投入不足的問題嗎？我只是 - 我正在努力解決運營方面的問題，因為上個季度，當你遇到這種停機時，你將其討論為暫時性的。所以這裡有些事情不是暫時的，這是對第三季度開始的問題的誤解。所以只要在所有東西上多一點顏色就真的很棒了。

Lauren, it's a very, very fair question and very accurate. We are a great manufacturing company, and the cause really goes back to the pandemic. Our focus during that period of time, really strong demand from consumers, particularly for Reynolds Wrap, included some swings in production rates that we've never seen historically and compromised our maintenance programs and therefore, our equipment reliability.

勞倫，這是一個非常非常公平的問題，而且非常準確。我們是一家偉大的製造公司，真正的事業可以追溯到大流行病。在那段時間裡，我們的重點是消費者的真正強勁需求，尤其是對 Reynolds Wrap 的需求，包括我們歷史上從未見過的一些生產率波動，並損害了我們的維護計劃，因此影響了我們的設備可靠性。

In addition, we paid heavy attention to restoring the element of production to -- on a preventive maintenance. So the resolution of that is to return to historically effective preventive maintenance disciplines while also implementing multiple new initiatives, including the ones I mentioned in my prepared remarks.

此外，我們非常注意將生產要素恢復到--預防性維護。因此，解決該問題的方法是恢復歷史上有效的預防性維護紀律，同時實施多項新舉措，包括我在準備好的發言中提到的舉措。

I think it's also worth reminding that we have a very strong team. And along with the input of some outside expertise that we brought on board, it gives us a high degree of confidence in the effectiveness of our plan. The key here is the improvement in operational efficiencies as that reduces the manufacturing costs while also decreasing our reliance on supplemental purchases of milled aluminum. And we expect to proceed along the lines that Michael reviewed in his prepared remarks.

我認為還值得提醒的是，我們擁有一支非常強大的團隊。再加上我們引入了一些外部專業知識，這讓我們對計劃的有效性充滿信心。這裡的關鍵是提高運營效率，因為這降低了製造成本，同時也減少了我們對補充購買研磨鋁的依賴。我們希望按照 Michael 在準備好的發言中回顧的思路進行。

Our plan is very detailed and has multiple elements to it. I think that, ultimately, the key assumptions are that, one, we have a very firm grasp on the causes of the downtime; two, a prescription match to the causes; and three, a team to apply that prescription. I mentioned the confidence in our team and I'm equally confident in our understanding of the loss of efficiencies in our plan for fully reversing them.

我們的計劃非常詳細，包含多個要素。我認為，歸根結底，關鍵假設是，第一，我們非常清楚停機的原因；二、對症下藥；第三，一個應用該處方的團隊。我提到了對我們團隊的信心，我同樣相信我們對完全扭轉效率損失的計劃的理解。

Okay. That's great. And then just in follow-up, in the release, it was specifically that you're not going to offer non-GAAP or adjusted net income and EPS and sticking with EBITDA. So that's fine. EBITDA is cash, it's closer to cash. But any sort of perspective you can offer on some of those non-GAAP adjustments? Or just maybe even why, right? Is it because you don't yet know the cost of restructuring and sort of remedying the plan that you're detailing and you don't want to put a number out there for the cost of the plan? Is that the key reason we're moving away from adjusted EPS?

好的。那太棒了。然後就在後續行動中，在發布中，特別是你不會提供非 GAAP 或調整後的淨收入和每股收益，並堅持使用 EBITDA。所以沒關係。 EBITDA 是現金，它更接近於現金。但是您可以就其中一些非 GAAP 調整提供任何類型的觀點嗎？或者甚至可能是為什麼，對吧？是不是因為您還不知道重組和補救您正在詳述的計劃的成本，並且您不想為計劃成本提供一個數字？這是我們放棄調整後每股收益的關鍵原因嗎？

The reason we're moving away from adjusted EPS, and I'll let Michael elaborate on this is there is no transaction costs anymore. And so we don't expect there to be any adjustments to any of the GAAP measurements 3 years after the IPO. So -- and as a matter of fact, our compensation is based on EBIT and not EBITDA based on the incentive plan. So that comment in the release was primarily just to say there's not going to be adjustments, period.

我們放棄調整後的每股收益的原因，我會讓邁克爾詳細說明這一點，因為不再有交易成本。因此，我們預計在首次公開募股 3 年後不會對任何 GAAP 衡量指標進行任何調整。所以——事實上，我們的薪酬是基於 EBIT 而不是基於激勵計劃的 EBITDA。因此，該版本中的評論主要只是說不會進行調整，期間。

Okay. Great. That was a misunderstanding. I was reading it and thinking is this about there being restructuring costs that can't be quantified, but it's rather that there's -- that the adjustments post IPO or that's in the past. That's great.

好的。偉大的。那是個誤會。我正在閱讀它並且認為這是關於存在無法量化的重組成本，而是存在 - IPO 後的調整或過去的調整。那太棒了。

Our next question is from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

A couple of questions. First, you hinted that the issues you're seeing in first quarter going to bleed into 2Q with comments like lapping elevated consumption through the first half, comments like you're still going to be working through the inefficiencies through the second quarter, et cetera. Can we just put a finer point on that? And can you unpack what really are your expectations through the first half of the year with the implicit second quarter?

幾個問題。首先，你暗示你在第一季度看到的問題會滲透到第二季度，比如上半年消耗增加，你仍然會在第二季度解決效率低下等問題.我們能否就此提出更好的觀點？你能用隱含的第二季度來解釋你對今年上半年的真正期望嗎？

Yes. So as I said in my prepared remarks, after Q1, we have significantly less reliance on supplemental milled aluminum, resulting in lower average cost. Operational efficiencies improved over the course of first quarter, improved further in Q2 followed by a return to pre-pandemic profitability in the second half.

是的。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，在第一季度之後，我們對補充研磨鋁的依賴明顯減少，從而降低了平均成本。第一季度運營效率有所提高，第二季度進一步提高，隨後在下半年恢復到大流行前的盈利能力。

A bit more color on this, we'll see carryover Q4 as additional purchases for supplemental -- supplemented by milled aluminum into Q1. Also since Q1 is seasonally a smaller quarter, the profit impact will be more pronounced in the second quarter, which is a larger one.

對此有更多的顏色，我們將看到結轉 Q4 作為補充的額外購買 - 由研磨鋁補充到 Q1 中。此外，由於第一季度的季節性較小，第二季度的利潤影響將更加明顯，第二季度的影響更大。

Okay. Okay. So let's switch gears then back to sort of Lauren's angular questioning, and if we go back to your pre-IPO days, and I remember all the hype about your Shake & Bake technique of taking and just starting to kind of form your own stuff, you don't have to go out there in the open market and buy this. And I recall it being kind of new. It sounded like you've been doing this for a decade. It's something that you began to implement really just a few years ago. And it sounds like given that you're now going back out to the market to buy this, it sounds like that's the issue. Like this new approach that's still relatively young isn't working for you.

好的。好的。因此，讓我們換個話題，然後回到勞倫的角度提問，如果我們回到你首次公開募股前的日子，我記得所有關於你的搖晃和烘焙技術的炒作，並開始形成你自己的東西，你不必去公開市場買這個。我記得它有點新。聽起來你已經這樣做了十年了。這是您幾年前真正開始實施的事情。聽起來你現在要回到市場上買這個，聽起來這就是問題所在。就像這種還相對年輕的新方法不適合你。

So do you have to kind of revisit that whole model, this whole Shake & Bake approach and milling and why should we have confidence that it's just a couple of tweaks on the preventative measures and you'll be back to bright?

那麼，您是否必須重新審視整個模型、整個搖動和烘烤方法以及銑削，為什麼我們應該相信這只是對預防措施的一些調整，您就會恢復光明？

Shake and Bake is about melting aluminum. It's about melting scrap aluminum. It's -- that production process is in Hot Springs, Arkansas, part of our aluminum melting facility, and it's 100% operational. What we're talking about here is the milling operations in [global]. That is the area where we have the challenges in that we're addressing. So we're able to melt more aluminum than we can mill. And so we have to buy milled aluminum from a third party. That's the significant issue here that we're addressing. There are 2 different manufacturing processes that you're addressing.

Shake and Bake 是關於熔化鋁的。這是關於熔化廢鋁。它是 - 生產過程在阿肯色州的溫泉城進行，這是我們鋁熔化設施的一部分，並且它是 100% 可操作的。我們在這裡談論的是 [global] 中的銑削操作。這就是我們面臨挑戰的領域。所以我們能夠熔化比我們能夠研磨更多的鋁。所以我們必須從第三方購買研磨鋁。這是我們要解決的重要問題。您要解決 2 種不同的製造過程。

Our next question is from Kaumil Gajrawala with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

So clearly something didn't go, I guess, according to plan in Cooking & Baking. It sounds like you have a grasp on what occurred. Is there -- are you able to put some -- perhaps some numbers around precisely what it costs? Obviously, your guidance for 1Q EBITDA for the segment gives us a sense. But did it cost $20 million of EBITDA or $40 million? Or can you just give a little bit of a read on what it might have -- what the expense might have been that a little more onetime?

很明顯有些事情沒有發生，我猜，根據烹飪和烘焙的計劃。聽起來你對發生的事情有所了解。有沒有——你能不能給出一些——也許一些數字來準確地說明它的成本是多少？顯然，您對該部門 1Q EBITDA 的指導給了我們一個感覺。但它花費了 2000 萬美元的 EBITDA 還是 4000 萬美元？或者你能稍微讀一下它可能有什麼 - 一次可能會有多少費用？

Yes. We missed the guide by, let's call it, $20 million. $10 million of that was volume, approximately $5 million of it was the metal purchases and the other $5 million was the operations disruptions.

是的。我們錯過了指南，我們稱之為 2000 萬美元。其中 1000 萬美元是交易量，大約 500 萬美元是金屬採購，另外 500 萬美元是運營中斷。

Thanks for being so clear. And typically, we don't ask for a guide to buy segment or anything. But I think in this instance, it might be helpful to just get a sense for the full year as Cooking & Baking has made between $200 million and $250 million of EBITDA. As we're thinking about the full year for '23 or if you can at least give us a sense of where you expect it to end up once we get past 1Q?

謝謝你這麼清楚。通常，我們不會要求購買細分市場或任何東西的指南。但我認為在這種情況下，了解全年的情況可能會有所幫助，因為 Cooking & Baking 的 EBITDA 收入在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。當我們正在考慮 23 年的全年時，或者您是否至少可以讓我們了解一旦我們過了 1Q，您預計它會在哪裡結束？

Yes, you're right. We don't give guidance on individual segments. We did try to be very clear about the cadence of the earnings recovery in the Cooking & Baking segment. And Michael, in his prepared remarks, talked about Q1 being breakeven-type EBITDA and then recovering the full profitability by the second half with good progress in Q2. For the full year, that business segment will be better than it was in 2022. It is back-half loaded. But specific numbers, we're not going to guide specific numbers on segments.

你是對的。我們不對個別細分市場提供指導。我們確實試圖非常清楚烹飪和烘焙領域盈利復甦的節奏。邁克爾在他準備好的發言中談到第一季度是盈虧平衡型 EBITDA，然後在下半年恢復全部盈利，第二季度取得良好進展。就全年而言，該業務部門將比 2022 年更好。它是後半負荷的。但是具體數字，我們不會在細分市場上指導具體數字。

Our next question is from [Tristan Chao] with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 [Tristan Chao]。

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. This is Tristan on for Mark. I just have 2 questions. First, just on cash flow, just saw that working capital was dragged down by increased inventories. So what gives you confidence that working capital or inventories can improve to get net debt to $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion as forecasted in your guidance? And what's a reasonable expectation for cash flows from operations? And I have a second question after that.

謝謝，大家早上好。這是馬克的特里斯坦。我只有兩個問題。首先，就現金流量而言，剛剛看到營運資金被庫存增加拖累。那麼，是什麼讓您相信營運資本或庫存可以改善，從而使淨債務達到您指南中預測的 18 億至 19 億美元？對運營現金流量的合理預期是多少？之後我有第二個問題。

Yes. Big driver is -- obviously, a big part of it is return to profitability within our Cooking & Baking. We also see commodities as being stable. We have a number of Reyvolution initiatives that we've talked about before, and we've had a great track record in terms of driving that and that materializing in bottom line results. Beyond that, we also have a number of working capital initiatives that we continue to push. Inclusive in that, obviously, is just making sure that we manage our CapEx spending but that's going to be supplemented by a very high focus on accounts payables as well as managing inventory levels.

是的。很大的驅動力是 - 顯然，其中很大一部分是我們的烹飪和烘焙業務恢復盈利。我們還認為大宗商品穩定。我們有許多我們之前討論過的 Reyvolution 計劃，並且我們在推動和實現底線結果方面有著良好的記錄。除此之外，我們還有一些我們將繼續推動的營運資金計劃。顯然，包括在內只是確保我們管理我們的資本支出支出，但這將通過高度關注應付賬款以及管理庫存水平來補充。

Great. And my second is just you mentioned an increase in A&P spend in '23. And so how does that compare to pre-pandemic levels? Is there a certain threshold where volumes respond?

偉大的。我的第二個是你提到 23 年 A&P 支出的增加。那麼，這與大流行前的水平相比如何呢？卷響應是否有特定的閾值？

Yes. This brings us back to historical levels of advertising spending. It will be approximately $20 million higher than it was in 2022.

是的。這使我們回到了廣告支出的歷史水平。這將比 2022 年高出約 2000 萬美元。

Our next question is from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

This is Shovana on for Andrea. You did mention that you are expecting to see improvement of profitability by Q3, end of Q2, progressing and laid out all the foundational, but can you please go over the specific reasons, like is it the timing of the commodities, addressing the inefficiencies and/or promotions? And if you could please give us a sense of the kind of numbers you're allocating to each of these reasons?

這是 Andrea 的 Shovana。您確實提到您希望在第三季度、第二季度末看到盈利能力的改善，並取得進展並奠定了所有基礎，但您能否複述一下具體原因，比如商品的時機、解決低效率和/或促銷？如果您能告訴我們您為每個原因分配的數字類型？

Yes. I did say that in my prepared remarks that we do expect that we're going to see increased operational efficiencies throughout the quarter. And obviously, a big part of that is going to be the timing of the actions we've put in place. We do also see commodities. As I mentioned earlier, our commodity is not being as much of a drag on overall business. And we see they lower Cooking & Baking having better performance, as we've mentioned earlier. Those are the key drivers.

是的。我確實在準備好的發言中說過，我們確實希望整個季度的運營效率都會提高。顯然，其中很大一部分將取決於我們採取行動的時機。我們也看到商品。正如我之前提到的，我們的商品並沒有對整體業務造成太大的拖累。正如我們之前提到的，我們看到他們降低了烹飪和烘焙的性能，但性能更好。這些是關鍵驅動因素。

And promotions would not play a factor at all or...

促銷根本不會發揮作用，或者...

Well, it's minor in terms of the overall impact to overall. Yes, I don't think that is a big factor.

好吧，就整體影響而言，它很小。是的，我認為這不是一個重要因素。

Our next question is from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So I wanted to ask about the profit outlook, but more just kind of what's embedded in terms of the commodity cost. I think the release states that you're expecting spot rates from the end of January to hold, is that simply just being conservative? Or is there something that you're seeing that would kind of actually drive these spot rates to hold at current levels?

所以我想問一下利潤前景，但更多的是商品成本方面的內嵌內容。我認為該新聞稿表明您預計從 1 月底開始的即期匯率將保持不變，這僅僅是保守的說法嗎？還是您看到的某些東西實際上會推動這些即期匯率保持在當前水平？

And then maybe just a follow-up on that. I mean a lot of news around potential tariffs on Russian aluminum. Any thoughts on how this may or may not impact your profit targets?

然後可能只是對此的後續行動。我的意思是很多關於俄羅斯鋁的潛在關稅的消息。關於這可能會或可能不會影響您的利潤目標的任何想法？

Let me answer the last question first. We don't buy metal from Russia. So it will not have any impact to us either way. The first question -- remind me the first question again, it was...

我先回答最後一個問題。我們不從俄羅斯購買金屬。因此，無論哪種方式，它都不會對我們產生任何影響。第一個問題——再次提醒我第一個問題，它是……

Yes, just more around why are you assuming spot rates kind of hold? I mean, I think most people are more of the view that you could see some moderation in commodity costs from here. So just any thoughts on...

是的，更多關於為什麼你假設即期匯率保持不變？我的意思是，我認為大多數人更傾向於認為你可以從這裡看到商品成本有所下降。所以只是關於...的任何想法

Yes. Aluminum prices closed out, the LME plus the Midwest premium closed out December to $1.29. It's now trading at the high $1.40 to $1.50. So we've seen some -- already some increases in aluminum costs from where they closed out the year. And polyethylene recently went up $0.03 a pound as it closed out January. So we do see stability compared to what we saw in '21 and '22 in these commodity costs. But I think further declines plus other inflationary costs are factored into our guide.

是的。鋁價收盤，LME 加中西部溢價 12 月收於 1.29 美元。它現在的交易價格在 1.40 美元至 1.50 美元的高位。因此，我們已經看到一些 - 鋁成本已經從今年結束時有所增加。聚乙烯最近在 1 月份收盤時每磅上漲 0.03 美元。因此，與我們在 21 年和 22 年這些商品成本中看到的情況相比，我們確實看到了穩定性。但我認為進一步下跌加上其他通脹成本已納入我們的指南。

That's super helpful. And then I guess I just want to go back to the commentary around gross profit return to pre-pandemic profitability in terms of gross profit dollars. And Michael, I think back in July, it was kind of this $950 million number. In November, the change in elasticity kind of shifted that number lower. So just -- I know it's kind of the gross profit recovery is more of a back half dynamic now. But just how should we be thinking about gross profit recovery for the full year, just in the context of what you've outlined previously.

這非常有幫助。然後我想我只想回到關於毛利潤回歸到大流行前盈利能力的評論。邁克爾，我想在 7 月份，這是一個 9.5 億美元的數字。 11 月，彈性的變化使該數字有所下降。所以只是 - 我知道現在毛利潤復甦更像是後半部分動態。但是，就您之前概述的內容而言，我們應該如何考慮全年的毛利潤復甦。

Yes. So I think the context you provide is accurate drivers. We see gross profit being around $920 million now. We did previously guide it to -- we did previously give an indication around $950 million, which we later lowered to around $930 million. It's lower for Reynolds Cooking & Baking and higher for the other business segments, but net down Reynolds for -- we've reviewed operational efficiencies and the purchases of supplemental milled aluminum at a premium. Those are big drivers of that.

是的。所以我認為你提供的上下文是準確的驅動因素。我們現在看到毛利潤約為 9.2 億美元。我們之前確實指導過它——我們之前確實給出了大約 9.5 億美元的指示，後來我們將其降低到大約 9.3 億美元。 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 較低，而其他業務部門較高，但 Reynolds 淨值下降 - 我們審查了運營效率和溢價購買補充研磨鋁。這些是其中的重要驅動力。

And then on other business segments -- for the other businesses, as we entered 2023, they have healthy shares across the businesses. They've demonstrated strong performance, and it's going to be a bit of an offset there. So the confidence is high and -- as we move forward. But clearly, it's been a drag, primarily driven by the Cooking & Baking business.

然後在其他業務部門——對於其他業務，當我們進入 2023 年時，他們在所有業務中擁有健康的份額。他們表現出了強勁的表現，這會有所抵消。因此，信心很高，而且——隨著我們的前進。但很明顯，這主要是受烹飪和烘焙業務的拖累。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Rob Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Great. Maybe if you could talk a little bit about -- you had some initial comments that you expect trade promos to be up in 2023. How should we think about that in the context of still an inflationary environment, still a lot of room to recover on the margins. You guys are the category captains. So how should we think about that statement? And maybe if you can reference percent of volume or sales that were sold on trade promos, kind of pre-pandemic at the bottom and kind of where we are now.

偉大的。也許如果你能談談 - 你有一些初步評論，你預計貿易促銷將在 2023 年增加。在通貨膨脹環境仍然存在的背景下，我們應該如何考慮這一點，仍有很大的恢復空間邊距。你們是組別隊長。那麼我們應該如何看待這句話呢？也許如果你可以參考在貿易促銷中銷售的銷量或銷售額的百分比，底部的大流行前和我們現在的位置。

Yes, Robert, we're talking about a 1% increase in trade year-over-year, and most of that being in the segments that are performing at historical plus levels from a margin standpoint. The trade promotions that we took in Reynolds were completed in Q4 and probably maintain those levels. But we may have to revisit that based on the fact that aluminum has gone up and we may have to reduce some trade and move some price points around.

是的，羅伯特，我們談論的是貿易額同比增長 1%，其中大部分是從利潤率的角度來看表現在歷史正水平的細分市場。我們在 Reynolds 進行的貿易促銷活動已在第四季度完成，並且可能會保持這些水平。但我們可能不得不根據鋁價上漲的事實重新審視這一點，我們可能不得不減少一些交易並調整一些價格點。

But I think we've had a great track record of demonstrating across our business over the years evidenced recently by how we've managed share with Reynolds Wrap that we can manage trade to ensure that we get the right price points and ensure that we get growth and share as a result. But we're not talking about a significant -- it's 1 point of revenue that we're talking about.

但我認為，多年來我們在整個業務方面擁有良好的記錄，最近我們如何管理與 Reynolds Wrap 的份額證明了我們可以管理貿易以確保我們獲得正確的價格點並確保我們得到結果是增長和份額。但我們不是在談論重要的 - 我們正在談論的是 1 個收入點。

Our next question is a follow-up from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題是 Lauren Lieberman 與巴克萊銀行的後續行動。

First thing was just on that detail you offered earlier on the drivers of the EBITDA miss the $10 million from volume. I was curious, how much of that would you -- have to ask for more detail or for a great detail. But conceptually, was the result of the lower consumption in terms of consumer takeaway? Or was some of that related to the production challenges in the foil business? The year it was about 5...

第一件事就是你之前提供的關於 EBITDA 的驅動因素的細節，錯過了 1000 萬美元的銷量。我很好奇，你會問多少 - 必須詢問更多細節或非常詳細的信息。但從概念上講，是消費者外賣消費減少的結果嗎？或者其中一些與箔業務的生產挑戰有關？那一年大概是5...

Yes, it was almost exclusively consumer consumption related and a lot of it occurred in December time period from a retailer replenishment from Thanksgiving and then the December holidays. It just did not play out from a consumption standpoint the way that we had forecasted. Our share actually went up in Q4. So we had -- it was not a share issue, it was a category consumption issue that occurred from a consumer standpoint, and we have factored that into our guide as part of 2023.

是的，這幾乎完全與消費者消費相關，其中很多發生在 12 月期間，零售商從感恩節開始補貨，然後是 12 月的假期。從消費的角度來看，它並沒有像我們預測的那樣發揮作用。我們的份額實際上在第四季度上升了。所以我們 - 這不是份額問題，而是從消費者的角度來看發生的類別消費問題，我們已將其作為 2023 年的一部分納入我們的指南。

Okay. Okay. And assuming that consumption remains lower than historic trend or what you had previously might have expected, is that a slightly softer value...

好的。好的。假設消費仍然低於歷史趨勢或你之前可能預期的，是一個略微疲軟的價值......

Yes. It's driven by elasticities primarily.

是的。它主要由彈性驅動。

Yes. Okay. Great. And then -- so Hefty, so profitability kind of off the charts -- sorry, Waste & Storage, I should be more specific. Profitability, sort of unbelievably strong this quarter, right, both in dollar terms, in terms of EBITDA and then also on margin. So maybe any update on kind of, A, the competitive environment; and B, separate from the comments you've made on a little bit more trade promotion. I think we've spoken previously about just whether or not pricing would prove so sticky with easing in the raw material cost basket.

是的。好的。偉大的。然後 - 如此龐大，盈利能力有點超出圖表 - 抱歉，Waste＆Storage，我應該更具體。盈利能力，本季度令人難以置信的強勁，正確的，以美元計算，以 EBITDA 計算，然後以利潤計算。所以也許任何更新，A，競爭環境；和 B，與您對更多貿易促進的評論分開。我想我們之前已經討論過定價是否會隨著原材料成本籃子的放鬆而變得如此棘手。

So yes, just any kind of thoughts there as we think maybe towards -- as we move into next year, I'm going to assume this kind of $70 million EBITDA isn't a run rate for the business. So just kind of any thoughts there would be helpful to make sure we don't get ahead of ourselves on that business.

所以，是的，我們可能會想到任何一種想法——隨著我們進入明年，我將假設這種 7000 萬美元的 EBITDA 不是該業務的運行率。因此，任何想法都會有助於確保我們不會在該業務上領先於自己。

Well, that category has grown significantly since the pandemic, right? So it's not as high as it was during the peak of the pandemic, but pre-pandemic, this category was up. And the pricing has been stable. And I think all of us in the category have been focused on ensuring that we maintain profitability and not with a lot of -- not a lot of promotions, but ensuring that we get the right price points to ensure consumers continue to have high takeaway. So I think things are relatively stable in that category, and there's no reason to believe that these profit levels can continue.

好吧，自大流行以來，該類別已顯著增長，對嗎？所以它沒有大流行高峰期那麼高，但在大流行前，這一類別有所上升。而且價格一直很穩定。而且我認為我們這個類別中的所有人都專注於確保我們保持盈利能力而不是大量 - 不是很多促銷活動，而是確保我們獲得正確的價格點以確保消費者繼續獲得高收益。所以我認為該類別的情況相對穩定，沒有理由相信這些利潤水平可以持續下去。

Okay. Because it was a huge -- I mean if it was look sequentially, right, it's a very material step up. So would you say what we're seeing there is a combination of better resin costs flowing through plus the higher pricing that's been enacted over the last -- the prior 18 months or so?

好的。因為它是一個巨大的——我的意思是如果按順序看，這是一個非常重要的進步。那麼你會說我們看到的是更好的樹脂成本加上過去 18 個月左右制定的更高定價的組合嗎？

I think it's primarily been pricing. It has been implemented across the category over the last 3 quarters.

我認為這主要是定價。它已在過去 3 個季度中在整個類別中實施。

Okay. Okay. Because there was a final increase thing that went in September, October. But again, just that sequential jump in profit would suggest it was much more sizable than prior rounds or again, getting back to better coverage on stable resin cost?

好的。好的。因為在 9 月、10 月發生了最後一次增加。但同樣，僅僅是利潤的連續增長就表明它比前幾輪要大得多，或者再次回到更好地覆蓋穩定的樹脂成本？

Resin costs came down some, and then the pricing went up. So we've crossed that threshold where we're back to higher profitability.

樹脂成本下降了一些，然後價格上漲了。所以我們已經跨過了那個門檻，我們回到了更高的盈利能力。

Our next question is a follow-up from Kaumil Gajrawala with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題是瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala 的後續行動。

I think you guys are in a better position than most on having a sense of the consumer and any shifting between private label and branded. Can you just give a sense of what you're seeing from a consumer perspective? Is there any trading down? There's reduced consumption, but are decisions being made to save dollars at the shelf? Any insight there would be useful.

我認為你們比大多數人更了解消費者，以及自有品牌和品牌之間的任何轉變。你能從消費者的角度談談你所看到的嗎？有交易下跌嗎？消費減少了，但是否正在做出節省貨架美元的決定？那裡的任何見解都會有用。

In our categories, label share was actually down in a number of our categories last year and in the fourth quarter. Private label share is down in foil. It's down in food bags, it's down in slow cooker liner and oven bags for both the year and the quarter, Q4. And private label share in waste bags was down for the full year, was up slightly in Q4, but the Hefty brand was also up slightly in Q4.

在我們的類別中，標籤份額在去年和第四季度在我們的許多類別中實際上有所下降。自有品牌份額下降。它在食品袋中下降，在今年和第四季度的慢燉鍋內襯和烤箱袋中下降。自有品牌在垃圾袋中的份額全年下降，第四季度略有上升，但 Hefty 品牌在第四季度也略有上升。

We are seeing a higher private label in party cups, plastic wrap and parchment paper. And all of those except parchment paper, we have a very strong private label position. So those 3 segments, we are seeing some trade down. We've also seen some trade down in some channels to lower pack sizes, but not a shift from brand to private label.

我們在派對杯、保鮮膜和羊皮紙中看到了更高的自有品牌。除了羊皮紙，所有這些，我們都擁有非常強大的自有品牌地位。所以這 3 個部分，我們看到一些交易下降。我們還看到在某些渠道中出現了一些降價交易以降低包裝尺寸，但並未從品牌轉變為自有品牌。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is a follow-up from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題是 Jason English 與高盛的後續行動。

Michael, you said your guidance is now predicated at $920 million of gross profit. You had previously said you expected SG&A of $400 million. That gets you to a $640 million EBITDA figure, about $20 million ahead of what you're actually guiding to. So implicitly, you're now expecting higher SG&A. What's driving the higher SG&A outlook?

邁克爾，你說你的指導現在預計為 9.2 億美元的毛利潤。您之前曾說過您預計 SG&A 為 4 億美元。這使您獲得 6.4 億美元的 EBITDA 數字，比您實際指導的數字高出約 2000 萬美元。所以隱含地，您現在期望更高的 SG&A。是什麼推動了更高的 SG&A 前景？

Yes. The significant driver of the SG&A increases is the higher variable comp and increased advertising, as you noted, as well as market research, but it just is a reminder from a variable comp standpoint. Our variable comp is linked to our year-over-year earnings growth. And as such, as we expect to increase earnings over the year, with that, will become higher SG&A expense. That is a big driver.

是的。正如您所指出的，SG&A 增加的重要驅動因素是更高的可變補償和增加的廣告，以及市場研究，但從可變補償的角度來看，這只是一個提醒。我們的可變薪酬與我們的同比收入增長掛鉤。因此，正如我們預計今年的收益會增加，SG&A 費用也會隨之增加。這是一個很大的驅動力。

So you're cutting your earnings outlook and raising your incentive comp outlook versus where you were in 3Q?

所以你正在削減你的盈利前景並提高你的激勵補償前景與你在第三季度的位置相比？

No, I'm telling our -- telling you that our incentive comp is linked to earnings progression, right, and our forecast has that going up.

不，我告訴我們 - 告訴你我們的激勵補償與收益增長相關，對，我們的預測已經上升。

Okay. And that's the reason SG&A is going from $400 million to $420 million?

好的。這就是 SG&A 從 4 億美元增加到 4.2 億美元的原因嗎？

That's a big -- that's the largest driver.

這是一個很大的 - 這是最大的驅動因素。

Okay. And then on the volume outlook for sort of flattish on the year and you're coming in down mid-singles. What gives you confidence in the inflection to growth later in the year? And is there any like reroll or anything that we're not going to be able to see in the consumer link data that would drive that?

好的。然後關於今年的銷量前景有點平淡，你進入中單。是什麼讓您對今年晚些時候的增長拐點充滿信心？是否有任何類似的重新滾動或我們無法在消費者鏈接數據中看到的任何東西來驅動它？

As a company, our volumes are up roughly 4% versus 2019. Of course, pricing has been taken over this period, has been significant and implying some elasticities for a sustained period of time. At different points in 2022, our categories did return to pre-pandemic elasticities. And we're using those elasticities I've mentioned in a previous question, as part of our guide.

作為一家公司，我們的銷量與 2019 年相比增長了約 4%。當然，在此期間定價已經開始，價格一直很重要，這意味著在一段持續的時間內存在一定的彈性。在 2022 年的不同時間點，我們的類別確實恢復到大流行前的彈性。我們正在使用我在上一個問題中提到的那些彈性，作為我們指南的一部分。

Our confidence in our assumptions on elasticity is based on a number of factors. Price increases are largely complete when assuming a more stable and easing commodity environment. Consumer activity outside of the home is increasing versus the pandemic rates continuing at a relatively stable level in recent months. Our categories and our portfolio's response to trade and other forms of promotion has proven to be very effective. And our planned levels of trade and advertising we've talked about are -- we expect to have that impact.

我們對彈性假設的信心基於多種因素。在假設商品環境更加穩定和寬鬆的情況下，價格上漲基本完成。與最近幾個月大流行率繼續保持相對穩定的水平相比，家庭以外的消費者活動正在增加。我們的類別和我們的產品組合對貿易和其他形式的促銷的反應已被證明是非常有效的。我們討論過的計劃貿易和廣告水平是——我們希望產生這種影響。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Lance for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議轉回給 Lance 以供結束評論。

Thank you all for your questions, and we do appreciate your time this morning. We have strengthened our competitive position over the last 3 years. We've recovered pre-pandemic profitability in 3 of our 4 business segments, and we entered 2023, with a strong team and a robust plan for recovering Reynolds Cooking & Baking profitability. We'll translate to even stronger performance for us overall. I want to also thank our employees and our retail partners for their dedication and contributions during these challenging and dynamic times. Thank you.

謝謝大家的提問，我們非常感謝您今天早上抽出時間來。在過去的 3 年裡，我們加強了我們的競爭地位。我們已經在我們的 4 個業務部門中的 3 個中恢復了大流行前的盈利能力，並且我們進入了 2023 年，擁有一支強大的團隊和一個強有力的計劃來恢復 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 的盈利能力。我們將為我們整體轉化為更強大的性能。我還要感謝我們的員工和我們的零售合作夥伴在這個充滿挑戰和充滿活力的時期所做的奉獻和貢獻。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。