Reynolds Consumer Products Inc (REYN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Reynolds Consumer Products Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加雷諾消費品 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mark Swartzberg. Thank you, and please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人馬克·斯沃茨伯格。謝謝，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Reynolds Consumer Products Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call is being recorded and webcast on the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com. Our earnings press release and accompanying presentation slides are also available on the site. With me on the call today are Lance Mitchell, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Graham, our Chief Financial Officer. For our call, Lance will focus his remarks on our second quarter performance, progress on the Reynolds Cooking & Baking recovery plan and what we are doing to drive results across our business. Michael will review our second quarter financials and our outlook for the third quarter and the full year. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

謝謝你，接線員。大家早上好，感謝您參加雷諾消費產品 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將在我們公司網站 reynoldsconsumerproducts.com 的投資者關係部分進行錄音和網絡直播。我們的收益新聞稿和隨附的演示幻燈片也可以在該網站上獲取。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官蘭斯·米切爾 (Lance Mitchell)；和我們的首席財務官邁克爾·格雷厄姆。在我們的電話會議中，蘭斯將重點討論我們第二季度的業績、雷諾烹飪和烘焙復甦計劃的進展以及我們為推動整個業務取得成果而採取的措施。邁克爾將回顧我們第二季度的財務狀況以及第三季度和全年的前景。在準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。

Before we begin, I would like to provide a few reminders. First, this morning's discussion may contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described today. Please refer to our Risk Factors section in our SEC filings, including in our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q. Please note that the company does not intend to update or alter these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances arising after the call.

在我們開始之前，我想提供一些提醒。首先，今天上午的討論可能包含基於當前期望和信念的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到風險、不確定性和情況變化的影響，可能導致實際結果和結果與今天描述的結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素部分，包括我們的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。請注意，公司無意更新或更改這些前瞻性陳述以反映電話會議後發生的事件或情況。

Second, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release, investor presentation deck and Form 10-Q. Copies of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our site. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Lance.

其次，在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及某些非公認會計原則或調整後的財務指標。這些 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調節可在我們的收益新聞稿、投資者演示文稿和 10-Q 表格中找到。其副本可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。現在我想把電話轉給蘭斯。

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As we enter the second half of our fiscal year, I'm exceptionally pleased with our second quarter results. We are well positioned to deliver significantly improved earnings in fiscal year 2023 and continued future growth. We began 2023 with profitability restored at 3 of our 4 businesses as well as a comprehensive plan to recover the profitability in our Reynolds Cooking and Baking business by the end of the second quarter. We were very effective executing each business' plans in the first quarter and again in the second quarter, including Reynolds Cooking & Baking's ongoing operational improvement initiatives. We also gained share in household foil and other categories. As a result, we have returned earnings to historical levels in all 4 of our businesses, and expect strong earnings growth and cash flow to continue over the balance of 2023.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早上好。隨著我們進入財年下半年，我對我們第二季度的業績感到非常滿意。我們處於有利位置，可以在 2023 財年顯著提高收益並持續實現未來增長。 2023 年伊始，我們 4 項業務中的 3 項恢復了盈利能力，並製定了一項全面計劃，以在第二季度末恢復雷諾烹飪和烘焙業務的盈利能力。我們在第一季度和第二季度非常有效地執行了每項業務的計劃，包括雷諾茲烹飪和烘焙公司正在進行的運營改進計劃。我們還在家用箔紙和其他類別中獲得了份額。因此，我們所有 4 項業務的盈利均恢復至歷史水平，並預計 2023 年剩餘時間將持續強勁的盈利增長和現金流。

Before turning to our plans to drive continued earnings improvement across RCP, I'd like to give you an update on the Reynolds Cooking and Baking business. As I mentioned, we executed extensive planned initiatives to stabilize manufacturing and improve operational efficiencies in the quarter. Performance against those initiatives progressed as we had planned. As a result, we continue to achieve the operational and gross margin objectives we set at the start of the fiscal year. In addition, we have done the work required to ensure operational stability and equipment reliability extends well beyond 2023.

在討論我們推動 RCP 持續盈利改善的計劃之前，我想向您介紹雷諾烹飪和烘焙業務的最新情況。正如我所提到的，我們在本季度執行了廣泛的計劃舉措，以穩定生產並提高運營效率。這些舉措的績效按照我們的計劃取得了進展。因此，我們繼續實現本財年年初設定的運營和毛利率目標。此外，我們還完成了確保 2023 年之後運行穩定性和設備可靠性所需的工作。

For example, we completed the largest combined scope of planned maintenance downtime and new equipment installation in the history of the Reynolds Cooking & Baking unit manufacturing operations, including replacement and rebuilds of key equipment, multiple upgrades to electronics, installation of condition-based monitoring systems and installation of new automation equipment to our spooling production. We also advanced ongoing work to standardize manufacturing and maintenance processes. In summary, we are successfully executing the Reynolds Cooking & Baking recovery plan, and I am confident in our ability to increase earnings in this business.

例如，我們完成了雷諾烹飪和烘焙設備製造業務歷史上最大的計劃內維護停機和新設備安裝的綜合範圍，包括關鍵設備的更換和重建、電子設備的多次升級、基於狀態的監控系統的安裝並為我們的繞線生產安裝新的自動化設備。我們還推進了正在進行的標準化製造和維護流程的工作。總之，我們正在成功執行雷諾烹飪和烘焙恢復計劃，我對我們增加這項業務收入的能力充滿信心。

Now let's turn to how we're performing at retail and what we're doing to drive growth with our retail partners and consumers. Our integrated brand and store brand model continues to be a competitive advantage. That was proven again in the second quarter. Reynolds Wrap gained more than 5 points of brand share in the foil category gaining even more share than in the first quarter. Reynolds Wrap is responding to an improvement in retail price points and price gaps versus store brands. A return to holiday trade promotions, which were very well received by retailers and consumers over Memorial Day and leading into the Fourth of July.

現在讓我們來看看我們在零售業的表現如何，以及我們正在採取哪些措施來推動零售合作夥伴和消費者的增長。我們的綜合品牌和商店品牌模式仍然是我們的競爭優勢。第二季度再次證明了這一點。 Reynolds Wrap 在鋁箔類別中的品牌份額增加了超過 5 個百分點，份額甚至比第一季度還要多。 Reynolds Wrap 正在應對零售價點的改善以及與商店品牌的價格差距。假日貿易促銷活動回歸，在陣亡將士紀念日和 7 月 4 日之前受到零售商和消費者的熱烈歡迎。

Increased advertising across major media platforms resulting in strong double-digit increase in media impressions versus the second quarter of 2022 and increased reliance upon influencers and relevant media channels contributing to increases in household penetration among Gen Z and millennials. In Waste Bags, Hefty entered 2023, with Waste Bag share multiple points above 2019. The brand is holding share and the company increased its share of store brand Waste Bags. In food bags, Hefty gained share of slider bags and the company's share of store brand Presto close food bags increased. And in tableware Hefty held share of disposable tableware while also benefiting from the consumer migration to store brands.

主要媒體平台上的廣告增加導致媒體印像數與2022 年第二季度相比出現兩位數的強勁增長，並且對影響者和相關媒體渠道的依賴增加，從而有助於提高Z 世代和千禧一代的家庭滲透率。在Waste Bags方面，Hefty進入2023年，Waste Bag份額比2019年高出多個百分點。該品牌持股，公司增加了商店品牌Waste Bags的份額。在食品袋領域，Hefty 獲得了滑蓋袋的份額，該公司的商店品牌 Presto 封閉式食品袋的份額也有所增加。在餐具領域，Hefty 佔據了一次性餐具的份額，同時也受益於消費者向商店品牌的遷移。

We implemented previously communicated increases in advertising and trade investment in the second quarter and the first half of 2023 and plan for continued investments over the balance of the year. I mentioned Reynolds Wrap pronounced pickup in media impressions and its penetration of young adult households. In fact, Reynolds Wrap has increased household penetration in all major demographics, and we're seeing favorable household penetration trends for Hefty as well. As planned, we have also increased trade investment by implementing proven promotional programs. Going forward, we plan to execute promotions around retailer key events and major seasonal periods, including back-to-school and the holiday season.

我們在 2023 年第二季度和上半年實施了之前通報的廣告和貿易投資增加計劃，併計劃在今年餘下時間繼續投資。我提到 Reynolds Wrap 在媒體印像中的明顯上升及其對年輕成人家庭的滲透。事實上，Reynolds Wrap 提高了所有主要人群的家庭滲透率，我們也看到了 Hefty 的有利家庭滲透率趨勢。按照計劃，我們還通過實施行之有效的促銷計劃增加了貿易投資。展望未來，我們計劃圍繞零售商關鍵活動和主要季節性時段（包括返校季和假期）開展促銷活動。

And in terms of innovation since the launch of our Hefty Fabuloso Lavender waste bags over 2 years ago, and the more recent launch of our Fabuloso Lemon Waste Bags, the entire Fabuloso product line has grown exceptionally well, reaching $140 million in retail sales during the second quarter and attaining a 73% ACV. We expect this growth to continue as we [earn] more distribution of our lemon scented Fabuloso bags. Other newer products that provide differentiation for our customers and consumers include Presto's Presto's stand-and-fill store brand for us to close food bags, Reynolds Kitchen stay flat parchment with smart grid technology and Reynolds kitchen Air Fry liners, all of which are gaining increased distribution.

就創新而言，自 2 年前推出 Hefty Fabuloso 薰衣草垃圾袋以及最近推出的 Fabuloso 檸檬垃圾袋以來，整個 Fabuloso 產品線增長得異常出色，零售額在 2017 年達到 1.4 億美元。第二季度ACV 達到73 %。隨著我們的檸檬香味 Fabuloso 包袋的分銷量增加，我們預計這種增長將持續下去。其他為我們的客戶和消費者帶來差異化的新產品包括Presto 的Presto 的立式填充商店品牌（供我們封閉食品袋）、採用智能電網技術的Reynolds Kitchen 扁平羊皮紙和Reynolds 廚房空氣炸鍋內襯，所有這些產品都在增長分配。

Environmentally friendly products are becoming more and more relevant among consumers which provides us the opportunity to introduce more innovative, sustainable products. These include Hefty ultra strong waste bags made with 50% recovered materials, Hefty and store brand waste bags made with post-consumer recycled materials and store brand food bags incorporating land and ocean materials. Also in the area of sustainability, we recently announced a grant to the new norm, a start-up out of Johns Hopkins University that has developed an exciting technology transforming materials from party cups into sustainable yarns and fabrics. As the #1 party cup manufacturer, we are excited to assist the new norm with their research and development efforts. And we continue to operate in an economy with mixed growth signals, including shifting consumer confidence.

環保產品越來越受到消費者的關注，這為我們提供了推出更多創新、可持續產品的機會。其中包括由 50% 回收材料製成的 Hefty 超強垃圾袋、由消費後回收材料製成的 Hefty 和商店品牌垃圾袋以及採用陸地和海洋材料製成的商店品牌食品袋。同樣在可持續發展領域，我們最近宣布向約翰·霍普金斯大學的一家初創公司“新規範”提供資助，該公司開發了一項令人興奮的技術，可將派對杯材料轉變為可持續紗線和織物。作為排名第一的派對杯製造商，我們很高興能夠通過他們的研發工作來協助新規範。我們繼續在一個增長信號複雜的經濟體中運營，包括消費者信心的變化。

To ensure success in any economic environment, we're focused on providing consumers with the right combination of value, product performance and convenience. Our first half category share gains demonstrate our effectiveness in accomplishing that goal. In closing, we are very well positioned for the second half of 2023. We have restored profitability across RCP. Our integrated brand and store brand model remains a competitive advantage and we're making the investments and innovating to drive added growth for Reynolds, Hefty and our store brands. As a result, we expect strong earnings growth and cash flows to continue over the balance of the year. With that, over to you, Michael.

為了確保在任何經濟環境中取得成功，我們致力於為消費者提供價值、產品性能和便利性的正確組合。我們上半年的類別份額增長證明了我們在實現這一目標方面的有效性。最後，我們為 2023 年下半年做好了充分準備。我們已經恢復了整個 RCP 的盈利能力。我們的綜合品牌和商店品牌模式仍然具有競爭優勢，我們正在進行投資和創新，以推動 Reynolds、Hefty 和我們的商店品牌的進一步增長。因此，我們預計今年剩餘時間將繼續強勁的盈利增長和現金流。那麼，就交給你了，邁克爾。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning, everyone. We performed well in the second quarter, reflecting strong consumption trends at retail successful implementation of comprehensive initiatives to improve operations and return Reynolds Cooking and Baking to historical earnings levels and a continuation of restored profitability in our other 3 businesses. All of this has set us up for a strong earnings growth, cash flow and debt reduction this year. Looking at the results, Net revenues increased 3% over the year ago period due to price increases combined with strong volumes in Reynolds Cooking and Baking which were up 12% overall and 15% in our retail business. This increase reflected continued strength at retail, including consistent and significant share gains for Reynolds Wrap, which offset volume declines in our other 3 businesses. And Hefty waste and storage volume decreased 8%, driven by category declines and consumer migration to store brand waste bags and full bags where our share increased.

謝謝你，蘭斯，大家早上好。我們在第二季度表現良好，反映出零售業強勁的消費趨勢，成功實施了改善運營的綜合舉措，使雷諾茲烹飪和烘焙業務恢復到歷史盈利水平，並繼續恢復了我們其他3 項業務的盈利能力。所有這些都為我們今年實現強勁的盈利增長、現金流和債務削減奠定了基礎。從結果來看，由於價格上漲以及雷諾烹飪和烘焙業務的強勁銷量，淨收入比去年同期增長了 3%，整體增長了 12%，零售業務增長了 15%。這一增長反映了零售業的持續強勁，包括 Reynolds Wrap 持續且顯著的份額增長，抵消了我們其他 3 項業務的銷量下降。由於品類下降以及消費者轉向存儲品牌垃圾袋和整袋（我們的份額有所增加），大量垃圾和存儲量下降了 8%。

Volume in Hefty Tableware declined 7%, consistent with category trends. And Presto Products volume declined 3%, driven by lower specialty product sales volume partially offset by continued strength in food bag products. Second quarter net income and adjusted EBITDA also increased over the prior year period, driven by margin expansion across all businesses. SG&A was also up as expected, driven by higher personnel costs, investments in advertising and professional fees in support of our Reynolds Cooking and Baking plan and higher interest costs continued to have an expected impact on net income in the quarter, reflecting higher interest rates. Our cash flow trends remained strong in the second quarter, resulting in an operating cash flow of $207 million year-to-date representing a $106 million increase over operating cash flow for the comparable period in the prior year.

Hefty 餐具銷量下降 7%，與品類趨勢一致。 Presto 產品銷量下降了 3%，原因是特種產品銷量下降，但部分被食品袋產品的持續強勢所抵消。在所有業務利潤率擴張的推動下，第二季度淨利潤和調整後 EBITDA 也較上年同期有所增長。由於人員成本上升、支持我們的雷諾烹飪和烘焙計劃的廣告投資和專業費用增加，以及利息成本上升繼續對本季度淨利潤產生預期影響，反映出利率上升，SG&A 也按預期增長。第二季度我們的現金流趨勢依然強勁，今年迄今的運營現金流為 2.07 億美元，比去年同期的運營現金流增加了 1.06 億美元。

Looking ahead, for the third quarter, we expect net revenues to be down in the range of 3% to 5%, consisting of essentially unchanged pricing and 3% to 5% lower volume. Noting that Memorial Day and Fourth of July holiday promotions resulted in stronger second quarter shipments and higher household inventories at the start of the third quarter. Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million, up by comparison to adjusted EBIT of $116 million in the prior year. Driven by Reynolds Cooking and Baking's recent return to historical levels of earnings and a continuation of restore profitability in our other 3 businesses.

展望未來，我們預計第三季度淨收入將下降 3% 至 5%，其中定價基本不變，銷量下降 3% 至 5%。注意到陣亡將士紀念日和國慶節假期促銷導致第二季度出貨量增加，第三季度初家庭庫存增加。我們第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 1.55 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間，高於去年調整後的 1.16 億美元。受雷諾茲烹飪和烘焙最近恢復歷史盈利水平以及我們其他 3 項業務盈利能力持續恢復的推動。

And EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.34 to $0.38 per share. For the full year 2023, we are reconfirming our revenue guide and raising our earnings outlook to reflect our strong performance in the second quarter. We continue to expect net revenues to be in line with prior year, plus or minus 1%, consisting of 2% higher pricing and 2% lower volume at the midpoint of our guide. Consolidated retail volume is estimated to be in line with prior year consolidated retail volumes. Consolidated non-retail sales are estimated to be down $60 million by comparison to $268 million in the prior year. In our new adjusted EBITDA range is now $615 million to $635 million, up from our previous range of $605 million to $635 million, and EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.34 to $1.41 per share.

EPS 預計在每股 0.34 美元至 0.38 美元之間。對於 2023 年全年，我們將重新確認收入指引並上調盈利前景，以反映我們第二季度的強勁表現。我們繼續預計淨收入將與上年持平，上下浮動 1%，其中包括我們指導中值的定價上漲 2% 和銷量下降 2%。預計綜合零售量與上年綜合零售量一致。預計綜合非零售銷售額將比上一年的 2.68 億美元減少 6,000 萬美元。我們新調整後的 EBITDA 範圍目前為 6.15 億美元至 6.35 億美元，高於之前的 6.05 億美元至 6.35 億美元範圍，每股收益預計為 1.34 美元至 1.41 美元。

Other key assumptions for the year include: further execution of the Reynolds Cooking and Baking recovery plan and earnings consistent with historical levels in all of our businesses in the second half of the fiscal year. Commodity rates, which have been consistent with our expectations since reporting first quarter 2023 results remain broadly stable over the balance of the year. Another year of approximately 200 basis points of incremental margin from Reyvolution cost savings as expected, and we will continue to use these savings as a potential source of investment in our categories and in our business. Gross profit is slightly above $920 million at the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guide with no significant change to annual depreciation and amortization, interest expense effective tax rates and capital spending estimates that we provided in our last earnings call.

今年的其他關鍵假設包括：雷諾茲烹飪和烘焙復甦計劃的進一步執行以及本財年下半年我們所有業務的盈利與歷史水平一致。自報告 2023 年第一季度業績以來，大宗商品價格一直與我們的預期一致，今年餘下時間仍基本保持穩定。正如預期的那樣，Reyvolution 成本節省又將帶來大約 200 個基點的增量利潤，我們將繼續利用這些節省作為我們類別和業務的潛在投資來源。按我們調整後的 EBITDA 指南的中點計算，毛利潤略高於 9.2 億美元，我們在上次財報電話會議中提供的年度折舊和攤銷、利息費用有效稅率和資本支出估計沒有重大變化。

Now before I wrap up my prepared remarks, I'd like to share my perspective on what's being achieved in Reynolds Cooking and Baking as well as on our cash flow and debt reduction. As Lance said, we began 2023 with a clear and comprehensive plan for restoring Reynolds Cooking and Baking profitability. We are delivering on that plan while also driving strong retail trends for the Reynolds portfolio. In terms of cash flow, as I mentioned, first half cash flow was strong. A big driver of that is the work we've undertaken to reduce inventory and our ongoing efforts to improve payment terms. And in terms of capital allocation, our priorities are unchanged, invest in our business, maintain capital spending discipline and continue to deleverage and evaluate bolt-on M&A. Which takes me to debt reduction.

現在，在結束我準備好的發言之前，我想分享一下我對雷諾烹飪和烘焙所取得的成就以及我們的現金流和債務削減的看法。正如蘭斯所說，我們在 2023 年伊始製定了一個明確而全面的計劃，以恢復雷諾烹飪和烘焙的盈利能力。我們正在實施該計劃，同時也推動雷諾茲投資組合強勁的零售趨勢。在現金流方面，正如我提到的，上半年現金流強勁。其中一個重要推動因素是我們為減少庫存所做的工作以及我們為改善付款條件所做的持續努力。在資本配置方面，我們的優先事項沒有改變，投資於我們的業務，維持資本支出紀律，並繼續去槓桿和評估補強併購。這讓我想到了減債。

I am pleased to report that we made a voluntary principal payment of $100 million subsequent to quarter end, and we continue to expect net debt in the range of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion at year-end. With that, I'll hand the call back over to you, Lance. Thank you.

我很高興地報告，我們在季度末自願支付了 1 億美元的本金，我們仍然預計年底的淨債務在 18 億美元至 19 億美元之間。這樣，我會將電話轉回給你，蘭斯。謝謝。

Thank you, Michael. Before we turn the call over to your questions, I know you would like an update on our CFO search following Michael's decision to retire following the release of earnings for the fiscal year. The search for Michael's replacement is going well. As I communicated in May during our first quarter earnings call, we are reviewing internal and external candidates for the CFO role. I anticipate naming his successor on or before our next earnings release. That timing will allow for a smooth transition. With that, operator, let's go to our first question.

謝謝你，邁克爾。在我們將電話轉交給您提問之前，我知道您希望了解我們在邁克爾決定在本財年收益發布後退休後首席財務官搜尋的最新情況。尋找邁克爾的繼任者的工作進展順利。正如我在五月份第一季度財報電話會議上所傳達的那樣，我們正在審查首席財務官職位的內部和外部候選人。我預計在我們下一次財報發佈時或之前任命他的繼任者。這個時機將允許平穩過渡。那麼，操作員，讓我們進入第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Rob Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Just wondering if you could maybe give us a little bit more insight into the Q3 sales guidance. Various -- I think we understand the timing issues, but that's a pretty big decline in volumes given your broad market share gains, increasing household penetration, you're stepping up advertising, you're stepping up promos a little bit, tremendous commercial momentum. It's surprising to us to see the down volume guidance to that extent?

只是想知道您是否可以讓我們更深入地了解第三季度的銷售指導。各種 - 我認為我們理解時機問題，但考慮到您廣泛的市場份額增長、家庭滲透率的提高、您正在加強廣告、您正在加強促銷、巨大的商業動力，銷量出現了相當大的下降。看到成交量指引下調到這種程度，我們感到很驚訝嗎？

Our Q3 guide is based on 2 factors. First of all, we are estimating non-retail sales to be down 2% in the quarter. And then the remainder is retail sales 1% to 3%, 2% of that 1% to 3% is based on household inventories that were built on foil primarily as a result of the promotions in Memorial Day and Fourth of July so that was really Q2 sales where Q3 sales are pulled forward into Q2. Now non-retail sales are metal from excess capacity to industrial customers from our Hot Springs melting and casting facility as well as food service revenues, which are classified as related party revenues. These sales have been a source of distraction in explaining our underlying top line performance but have no meaningful impact to earnings because the products are very low margin. As you saw in our release, the reduction in non-retail sales is approximately $60 million in net revenue as a headwind and approximately 2-point headwind to consolidated volume growth in 2023. So we increased our earnings guide despite that revenue non-retail impact.

我們的第三季度指南基於兩個因素。首先，我們預計本季度非零售銷售額將下降 2%。然後剩下的就是零售額1% 到3%，其中1% 到3% 的2% 是基於家庭庫存，這些庫存主要是由於陣亡將士紀念日和7 月4 日的促銷活動而建立在鋁箔上的，所以這實際上是第二季度銷售額將第三季度銷售額推至第二季度。現在，非零售銷售是來自我們的溫泉熔煉和鑄造設施的工業客戶產能過剩的金屬以及食品服務收入，這些收入被歸類為關聯方收入。這些銷售一直是解釋我們基本營收業績的一個乾擾源，但對盈利沒有有意義的影響，因為這些產品的利潤率非常低。正如您在我們的新聞稿中所看到的，非零售銷售額的減少對淨收入造成約6000 萬美元的不利影響，並且對2023 年綜合銷量增長產生約2 個百分點的不利影響。因此，儘管非零售收入受到影響，但我們還是提高了盈利預期。

Great. That's helpful. And in terms of the household inventories, can you maybe just give us some insight into your methodology in terms of understanding what that is and where that looks both for foil and your other categories?

偉大的。這很有幫助。就家庭庫存而言，您能否給我們一些關於您的方法的見解，以了解它是什麼以及在哪裡尋找鋁箔和您的其他類別？

Yes. It's done on survey basis on a proprietary survey that we do with consumers on a quarterly basis. I will tell you, it's not always completely accurate, but it's trending accurate as we've done this over the last 4 years during -- we started this COVID and it provides us an understanding of what's in the pantry and what customers' intentions are from a restocking standpoint in the following quarter.

是的。它是在我們每季度與消費者進行的專有調查的基礎上完成的。我會告訴你，它並不總是完全準確，但它的趨勢是準確的，因為我們在過去4 年裡——我們開始了這次新冠疫情期間所做的事情，它讓我們了解食品儲藏室裡有什麼以及顧客的意圖是什麼從下個季度補貨的角度來看。

The next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼 (Lauren Lieberman)。

I have a question was just (technical difficulty) .

我有一個問題只是（技術難度）。

Lauren, this is Mark. I think your line is -- well, we're hearing your line very wildly, I'd suggest you come back into the queue on a different line.

勞倫，這是馬克。我想你的隊伍是——嗯，我們聽到你的聲音非常大，我建議你換一條隊伍回到隊列中。

No problem.

沒問題。

I think it's your line. I don't think it's ours judging by the prior conversation of the caller's.

我認為這是你的路線。從打電話者之前的談話來看，我認為這不是我們的。

Our next question is from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 和 Stifel。

A couple of questions on sort of, I don't know, I guess, call it, a bigger picture, sort of how the consumer is responding to pricing into volumes and promotions. I guess your commentary about the response of holiday promotions, Memorial Day, Fourth of July. Curious what you're seeing and hearing from both retailers and customers in terms of response to promotions and how if they're responding to that, does that affect or impact the ability to sell on everyday prices? And sort of related to that, how generally should we be thinking about retention on pricing? I guess I've been pleasantly surprised at the ability to retain a lot of the pricing taken over the last few years. I think if you go back, your pre-IPO, there was some portion of pricing taken in the last cycle that was given back to folks in some form or another. So how do you think about that on a go-forward basis?

有幾個問題，我不知道，我想，可以稱之為更大的圖景，即消費者對銷量和促銷的定價有何反應。我猜想您對節日促銷、陣亡將士紀念日、七月四日的反應的評論。很好奇您從零售商和顧客那裡看到和聽到的對促銷的反應，以及如果他們對此做出反應，這是否會影響或影響按日常價格銷售的能力？與此相關的是，我們應該如何普遍考慮定價保留？我想我對能夠保留過去幾年的大部分定價感到驚喜。我認為，如果你回顧一下首次公開募股前的情況，上一個週期中的定價的一部分會以某種形式回饋給人們。那麼，您如何看待未來的發展？

Mark, this is Lance. There's 2 questions there. First of all, response to promotions I think you need to look at it in 2 parts. One is the actual promotion period itself for the holidays, for example. And really an example is what we saw in Reynolds Wrap, where it's really been very effective as it has been in the past, providing that opportunity for consumers to really purchase products in front of a holiday occasion. The second part of promotions is what we call TPRs is to ensure that the pricing is correct on the shelf and getting the price points correct, which we've done very effectively with Reynolds Wrap. You could see that from the everyday purchasing, not just on promotion, but a temporary price reduction is something that extends over a longer period of time, and it's an adjustment to the shelf price to ensure that we get the price point, let's say, below $5 or $4.99 on 75-foot Reynolds Wrap.

馬克，這是蘭斯。這裡有 2 個問題。首先，對促銷活動的反應我認為你需要分兩部分來看待。例如，一是假期的實際促銷期本身。真正的一個例子是我們在 Reynolds Wrap 中看到的情況，它和過去一樣非常有效，為消費者提供了在節日前真正購買產品的機會。促銷的第二部分就是我們所說的 TPR，即確保貨架上的定價正確並獲得正確的價格點，我們通過 Reynolds Wrap 非常有效地做到了這一點。大家從日常採購中可以看到，不只是促銷，臨時降價是一個持續較長時間的事情，是對貨架價格的調整，以確保我們得到價格點，比如說， 75 英尺Reynolds Wrap 價格低於5 美元或4.99 美元。

We've executed that very effectively in the household foil category. We are doing the same in the other categories. We've proven that it works in household foil and so for, waste bags, food bags and tableware products, we're evaluating the right price points and price gaps to ensure that we get the right TPRs in place for those categories as well. The second part of that is the surprise on being able to retain the pricing in this cycle. And the answer to that comes from inflation. The inflationary environment is different than it's been in past cycles.

我們在家用箔片類別中非常有效地執行了這一點。我們在其他類別中也做了同樣的事情。我們已經證明它適用於家用箔紙等垃圾袋、食品袋和餐具產品，我們正在評估正確的價格點和價格差距，以確保我們也為這些類別提供正確的 TPR。第二部分是能夠在這個週期中保持定價的驚喜。答案來自通貨膨脹。通脹環境與過去的周期有所不同。

We've seen labor inflation. We've seen inflation on other other costs like packaging costs and electricity and energy costs. But, they've retreated somewhat in the last few months, but they're still elevated from what they were historically. So as a result of that, the pricing is recovering inflationary costs, not just commodity costs. And our retailer and consumers recognize that inflation is an environment that's across all products, not just in household staples.

我們已經看到了勞動力通脹。我們已經看到其他成本的通貨膨脹，例如包裝成本以及電力和能源成本。但是，在過去幾個月中，它們有所回落，但仍較歷史水平有所提升。因此，定價正在恢復通脹成本，而不僅僅是商品成本。我們的零售商和消費者認識到，通貨膨脹是一種影響所有產品的環境，而不僅僅是家庭必需品。

The next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼 (Lauren Lieberman)。

Great. Hopefully, that's better. You can hear me now.

偉大的。希望這樣會更好。你現在可以聽到我的聲音了。

Much better.

好多了。

Okay. Great. Sorry about that. So I want to -- I was going to ask about gross profit per unit. Could you talk about previously around $920 million, now you're saying slightly above that, I think, for the year. But the -- and just it might be splitting hairs, but now the volumes are expected to be down a little bit and then you also have the impact of the non-retail sales. So I was just curious, I guess, where you are on or projected to be, I should say, in gross profit per unit at the end of this year versus 2019 and then scope for that building from there?

好的。偉大的。對於那個很抱歉。所以我想——我想問一下每單位的毛利潤。您能否談談之前大約 9.2 億美元，現在您說的今年略高於這個數字。但是——這可能是令人吹毛求疵的事情，但現在銷量預計會略有下降，然後你也會受到非零售銷售的影響。所以我只是好奇，我想，我應該說，與 2019 年相比，今年年底的單位毛利潤處於或預計處於什麼位置，然後從那裡開始建設該建築的範圍？

Yes. So what you can expect from a gross profit per unit basis is that you'll see sequential quarter-over-quarter improvements throughout the year. And from a return to our profit expectations, we've arrived at levels that are beyond what we expected for -- what we had in 2019. So we're progressing quite well against that overall objective.

是的。因此，您可以從單位毛利潤中看到全年環比連續改善。從利潤預期的回歸來看，我們已經達到了超出我們 2019 年預期的水平。因此，我們在實現總體目標方面進展順利。

Okay. And then I wanted to also talk about consumer behavior. And so I'll -- we know your -- the portfolio in participating in store brands is very much part of the strategy and the approach and mattering a lot today. I felt like in your prepared remarks and also in the release, there was a lot more emphasis on just there being down trading at retail. And I think it feels like we're not hearing it to the same degree from other companies. It's not perhaps is obvious in the data. So curious maybe what you think it is, whether it's about your categories, what it is about why now versus 6 months ago or longer than that when pricing was first going into place. But what's your understanding or sense of why the consumer behavior change is happening now when pricing is already pretty well established in the market. And if anything, I would expect that elasticity effect to start easing?

好的。然後我還想談談消費者行為。因此，我會——我們知道你的——參與商店品牌的投資組合在很大程度上是戰略和方法的一部分，並且在今天非常重要。我覺得在您準備好的講話以及新聞稿中，更多地強調了零售業的下跌交易。我認為我們並沒有從其他公司那裡聽到同樣程度的這種說法。數據中可能並不明顯。很好奇，也許您的想法是什麼，是否與您的類別有關，與 6 個月前或比定價首次實施時更長的時間相比，現在的原因是什麼。但是，當市場定價已經相當成熟時，您對為什麼消費者行為正在發生變化有何理解或感覺？如果有的話，我預計彈性效應會開始緩解？

Yes, perhaps we overemphasized that a reading between the lines, there has not been a significant migration of private label in our categories. We've seen some migration to private label in our waste bag and our food bag business and the revision to our guide shows the strength of our integrated brand and store brand model and our diversified household products portfolio. From a category stand -- summary standpoint, private label share is up in waste and food bags, in party cups and in plastic wrap, which is a small part of the category. But private label is down in foil, foam dishes and other Reynolds Cooking and Baking products. Our integrated branded store brand model is a competitive advantage because it positions us to benefit from shifts in either directions, which is what we're emphasizing in our prepared remarks in our press release and our retailers really rely on us to provide the right category mix, and we've been doing that for years.

是的，也許我們過分強調了字裡行間的意思，我們的品類中自有品牌並沒有發生重大遷移。我們已經看到垃圾袋和食品袋業務向自有品牌遷移，指南的修訂顯示了我們綜合品牌和商店品牌模式以及多元化家居產品組合的實力。從品類立場來看——總結的角度來看，自有品牌在垃圾和食品袋、派對杯子和保鮮膜中的份額有所上升，而這些只是該品類的一小部分。但自有品牌在鋁箔、泡沫餐具和其他雷諾烹飪和烘焙產品方面的銷量有所下降。我們的綜合品牌商店品牌模式是一種競爭優勢，因為它使我們能夠從兩個方向的轉變中受益，這正是我們在新聞稿中準備好的評論中所強調的，我們的零售商確實依賴我們提供正確的品類組合，我們多年來一直這樣做。

But the relative stability that we've seen is sound economically for consumers and retailers alike. And it's our -- as I've mentioned in a lot of earnings calls, private label already represents a sizable portion of our category's consumptions and private label category share has been relatively consistent through economic cycles.

但我們所看到的相對穩定性對於消費者和零售商來說都是經濟上有利的。正如我在很多財報電話會議中提到的那樣，自有品牌已經代表了我們類別消費的很大一部分，並且自有品牌類別的份額在整個經濟周期中一直相對穩定。

Our next questions come from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I wanted to go back to the commentary now on elasticity and promo. And as you said, consumers and retailers in your prepared remarks, you said that they're responding well to bringing back promo to the levels before and so I want to understand because you also had mentioned before, in particular, aluminum foil that you are setting RGM and price points that were obviously more interesting for them, for kind of like protecting entry level and also allowing consumers to make choices within your brand. Can you comment on how that evolved over the last, I would say, you started like mid last year, if I understood correctly and through now.

所以我現在想回到關於彈性和促銷的評論。正如您所說，消費者和零售商在您準備好的發言中表示，他們對將促銷恢復到之前的水平反應良好，所以我想理解，因為您之前也提到過，特別是鋁箔，您正在設定對他們來說顯然更有趣的RGM 和價格點，就像保護入門級並允許消費者在你的品牌內做出選擇。您能否評論一下過去的發展情況，我想說，如果我理解正確的話，您是從去年年中開始的。

And then a second part of the question for Michael in terms of the gross margin, I think the 4 points that you had alluded to for the full year. you achieved in the quarter. Of course, there are puts and takes on productivity and all of that. Can you kind of like update us on your goal? I understand this is a moving target, and it's hard to go back to that level that we were at pandemic, but there is definitely an expectation that at some point, you're going to see that on a mixed (inaudible) basis.

然後是邁克爾問題的第二部分，即毛利率，我認為您提到的全年毛利率有四點。您在本季度取得的成就。當然，生產力也會受到影響。您能給我們介紹一下您的目標嗎？我知道這是一個不斷變化的目標，很難回到大流行時的水平，但肯定會期望在某個時候，你會在混合（聽不清）的基礎上看到這一點。

I'll answer the first part of the question, which is regarding our investment in trade and promotions. The COVID gave us the opportunity to really reset our whole trade program because, as you know, in 2020 and 2021, we really scaled back on trade promotions and focused on supply and ensuring that we had the right products in place for our retailers and consumers. We have reinvested in trade spending, but we didn't necessarily go back to the previous programs. It gave us the opportunity to completely reset and reevaluate where we had proven promotional trade programs and the right price points at new inflationary levels. And we've got programs that have been really proven and tailored to our categories and our customers. And we've proven that with the Reynolds Wrap volume that you've seen. Now we're not necessarily back to 2019 levels. It really depends on the category. And in some levels, in some cases, we're promoting more of our volume in other categories of products less.

我將回答問題的第一部分，即關於我們在貿易和促銷方面的投資。新冠疫情讓我們有機會真正重新調整整個貿易計劃，因為如您所知，在 2020 年和 2021 年，我們確實縮減了貿易促銷活動，專注於供應並確保為零售商和消費者提供合適的產品。我們已經對貿易支出進行了再投資，但我們不一定會回到之前的計劃。它使我們有機會徹底重置和重新評估我們已經證明的促銷貿易計劃以及新通脹水平下的正確價格點。我們的計劃已經過真正的驗證，並且是針對我們的類別和客戶量身定制的。我們已經用您所見過的 Reynolds Wrap 卷證明了這一點。現在我們不一定會回到 2019 年的水平。這實際上取決於類別。在某些層面上，在某些情況下，我們會減少其他類別產品的銷量。

It really depends on the price points that we're looking to achieve in the specific holiday and features that we're looking to gain. So historically, prior to the pandemic, roughly 25% of our sales were on promotion in a given year. We're below that at this point. We feel our marketing spend is efficient and effective. We're seeing good share trends for our brands on our total business as we enter 2023, and we have a strong position across our categories.

這實際上取決於我們希望在特定假期中達到的價格點以及我們希望獲得的功能。因此，從歷史上看，在大流行之前，我們大約 25% 的銷售額是在特定年份進行促銷的。目前我們的水平低於這個水平。我們認為我們的營銷支出是高效且有效的。進入 2023 年，我們看到我們的品牌在整個業務中的份額趨勢良好，並且我們在各個類別中都擁有強大的地位。

And any -- I just -- I'm sorry, go ahead, Michael. i wil come back to...

任何 - 我只是 - 對不起，繼續吧，邁克爾。我會回到...

I was going to add to your answer. You continue with your first point.

我本來想補充一下你的答案。你繼續你的第一點。

Yes. No, I wanted to just -- as Lance was saying, like, so should we expect and I understand the puts and takes from a shipment perspective and the timing and getting these other non-retail contracts out of the way. On an underlying basis, though, is the shipment against consumption trend similar now granted that you have some inventory to work through the pantry. When do you think? Are you planning for that to reverse itself, I believe, in the fourth quarter, if my math works right, that the fourth quarter, we will see more shipments against consumption?

是的。不，我只是想——正如蘭斯所說，我們應該期待嗎？我從發貨的角度理解看跌期權和索取期權，以及時間安排，並排除這些其他非零售合同。不過，從根本上來說，如果您有一些庫存可以在食品儲藏室中使用，那麼與消費趨勢相反的裝運情況與現在類似。你什麼時候想？我相信，您是否計劃在第四季度扭轉這種情況，如果我的數學正確的話，第四季度我們將看到更多的出貨量與消費量相比？

Yes. I think there's 3 dimensions here, Andrea. It's a great question. One is retailer inventory and consumption from consumers. And those are in line. We monitor that very closely by retailer, by product category. And we have consistent consumption with shipments and retailer inventory. What we're referring to is what's occurred primarily in household foil and to a lesser extent, the other categories is household inventory. And we have seen a gain in household inventory in the pantry as a result primarily of the holiday promotions and the holiday period for household foil that will then work its way through in Q3. And your point, we expect that to be depleted by the end of Q3 and respond to our Q4 promotions and growth in Q4 versus prior year.

是的。我認為這裡有 3 個維度，安德里亞。這是一個很好的問題。一是零售商的庫存和消費者的消費。這些都是一致的。我們按零售商和產品類別密切監控這一情況。我們的消費量與發貨量和零售商庫存保持一致。我們指的是主要發生在家用鋁箔上的情況，在較小程度上，其他類別是家庭庫存。我們看到食品儲藏室的家庭庫存有所增加，這主要是由於節日促銷和家庭鋁箔假期將在第三季度結束。您的觀點是，我們預計該金額將在第三季度末耗盡，並對我們第四季度的促銷活動和第四季度與去年同期相比的增長做出回應。

Okay. And sorry, please go ahead.

好的。抱歉，請繼續。

Yes, I was going to answer the question around gross margin. So if you look broadly process, we restored our unit profitability already. With gross margins of approximately 24% this year. If you look at the long-term journey, our journeys, we see ourselves getting back to the high 20s in gross margins from a percentage standpoint. The rentals recovery is planned to boost that. Obviously, it continues along the journey. We also know that Reyvolution has been a continued source and contributing to the overall gross margin improvement. And then we also were focused on driving increases through our innovation efforts. So we feel good about our journey and basically, you anticipate getting back into those high 20s.

是的，我要回答有關毛利率的問題。因此，如果您廣泛關注流程，我們已經恢復了單位盈利能力。今年毛利率約為24%。如果你看看我們的長期歷程，從百分比的角度來看，我們的毛利率將回到 20 多歲的高位。租金復蘇計劃將推動這一趨勢。顯然，它會沿著旅程繼續。我們還知道，Reyvolution 一直是一個持續的來源，並為整體毛利率的提高做出了貢獻。然後我們還專注於通過創新努力推動增長。所以我們對我們的旅程感覺很好，基本上，你預計會回到 20 歲左右。

And no timing on that yet, correct?

目前還沒有確定時間，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is coming from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Peter Grom。

I guess, I just wanted to follow up quickly on Andrea's question because the implied 4Q sales guidance, really depending on where you fall in the 3Q range does seem to suggest continued sales declines in the given year. So maybe just to put a finer point, are you actually expecting volumes to return to growth as you [informed] that the consumers respond to the promos and that the decline is from lower price. So if you could just put a finer point on that, that would be helpful.

我想，我只是想快速跟進 Andrea 的問題，因為隱含的第四季度銷售指導（實際上取決於您在第三季度範圍內的位置）似乎表明特定年份的銷售持續下降。因此，也許只是為了提出一個更具體的觀點，當您[告知]消費者對促銷活動做出反應並且下降是由於價格較低時，您實際上是否期望銷量恢復增長。因此，如果您能對此提出更具體的觀點，那將會有所幫助。

Sure, Peter. Absolutely. If you deconstruct the guide, we expect retail sales to be up 3% in the fourth quarter. We expect a 3% increase in the fourth quarter due to comparison. If you remember, we were lapping Q4 2022 when elasticity has really picked up. And our retail volume, if you compare it to 2019, is up 5%. And for Q4, it's up 6%. So stack growth is continuing for our brand momentum, and we are seeing growth in the fourth quarter.

當然，彼得。絕對地。如果你解構該指南，我們預計第四季度零售額將增長 3%。通過比較，我們預計第四季度將增長 3%。如果您還記得的話，我們正在經歷 2022 年第四季度，當時彈性確實有所回升。如果與 2019 年相比，我們的零售量增長了 5%。第四季度增長了 6%。因此，我們的品牌勢頭仍在持續增長，我們在第四季度看到了增長。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then I guess, just given that exit rate...

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後我想，考慮到退出率......

Peter, this is Mark. Those were all volume comments. And as Lance said, they're pertaining to the retail component of the business.

彼得，這是馬克。這些都是批量評論。正如蘭斯所說，它們與業務的零售部分有關。

Okay. I guess maybe just following up on that then, maybe how should we think about -- maybe following up on Mark's earlier question around pricing moving forward because it did sound like there may be less price give back given inflation is still high elsewhere despite moderating commodity costs. So is that right? Is that the expectation? Because I know 3Q pricing is expected to be flat which is a bit better than most were anticipating. But would you expect pricing to kind of to shift negative here in the fourth quarter? And how does that inform your view as we think about the exit rate into 2024??

好的。我想也許只是跟進這個問題，也許我們應該如何思考——也許是跟進馬克之前關於定價前進的問題，因為聽起來確實價格回饋可能會減少，因為儘管大宗商品放緩，但其他地方的通脹仍然很高成本。那麼這樣說對嗎？這是期望嗎？因為我知道第三季度的定價預計將持平，這比大多數人的預期要好一些。但您是否預計第四季度定價會出現負值？當我們考慮 2024 年的退出率時，這對您有何看法？

We don't expect there to be any significant change in pricing in Q4. We will consider additional pricing actions if inflation picks up again, but we're not seeing pressure for increases at this time. We do have some contractual pass-through of lower commodity costs but that's offset by some of the increases we've seen in other inflationary impacts, which were ensuring that we have priced for that as well across our entire portfolio.

我們預計第四季度的定價不會有任何重大變化。如果通脹再次上升，我們將考慮採取額外的定價行動，但目前我們沒有看到上漲的壓力。我們確實有一些較低的商品成本的合同傳遞，但這被我們在其他通脹影響中看到的一些增加所抵消，這確保了我們在整個投資組合中也對此進行了定價。

The next question is from the line of William Chappell with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Chappell。

I wanted to, I guess, ask the same question on third quarter volumes a different way. I guess I would assume that as we're looking back at last year, as we got into the summer, we kind of started to lap fully lap Omicron, COVID, behavior, more people at home. So I would assume that the second quarter was kind of the last, I guess, tough comparison and third quarter would be where you had a more normalized comparison. And so by that thought process, volume should improve sequentially. Am I thinking about that wrong? Where people more at home still all the way up until September? Or just up from a consumer behavior trend, I would think that the comps get easier as we move forward.

我想，我想以不同的方式對第三季度的捲提出同樣的問題。我想我會假設，當我們回顧去年時，當我們進入夏天時，我們開始完全接受 Omicron、新冠病毒、行為、更多的人在家。因此，我認為第二季度是最後一個艱難的比較，第三季度將是您進行更標準化比較的地方。因此，通過這個思考過程，成交量應該會依次提高。我這樣想是不是錯了？直到九月，哪裡的人還更待在家裡？或者僅僅從消費者行為趨勢來看，我認為隨著我們的前進，競爭會變得更容易。

Bill, this is Mark. Let me respond to that, and it's really to amplify something Lance said in his response to -- I believe it was Robert. In the second quarter, you can see our volumes were flat overall. And in the third quarter, if you take the midpoint of our revenue guide, we're looking for volumes to be down 4%. As Lance said, we got about a 2-point volume benefit in the second quarter from that household buy-in a product more successfully than we anticipated. So if you actually just simply move those 2 points out of the second quarter and into the third quarter, you wind up with -- I'm sorry, out of the third quarter back into the second quarter, you wind up with a minus 2 in both periods. So it's a very consistent trend. And then I want to add to something Lance said a moment about the fourth quarter, we are looking for our volumes to pick up in the fourth quarter.

比爾，這是馬克。讓我對此做出回應，這實際上是為了放大蘭斯在回應中所說的話——我相信那是羅伯特。在第二季度，您可以看到我們的銷量總體持平。在第三季度，如果採用我們收入指南的中點，我們預計銷量將下降 4%。正如蘭斯所說，由於家庭購買產品的成功程度超出了我們的預期，我們在第二季度獲得了大約 2 個百分點的銷量收益。所以，如果你實際上只是簡單地將這 2 分從第二節移到第三節，你最終會得到 - 對不起，從第三節回到第二節，你最終會得到負 2 分在這兩個時期。所以這是一個非常一致的趨勢。然後我想補充一下蘭斯關於第四季度的言論，我們希望我們的銷量在第四季度有所回升。

But again, the reason for that is we're lapping a very -- a comparatively easy compare in the fourth quarter. And then to build on something Lance said, if you actually look at our volumes in the fourth quarter compared to 2019 levels, they're up consistent with the amount of increase we're looking versus 2019 on a full year basis. So that's a very long way of saying we're looking for very consistent underlying trends. It just boils down to the nature of comparisons.

但同樣，其原因是我們在第四季度進行了一個非常——相對容易的比較。然後，基於 Lance 所說的，如果你實際上看看我們第四季度的銷量與 2019 年的水平相比，它們的增長量與我們預期的 2019 年全年的增長量一致。因此，這是一個很長的說法，我們正在尋找非常一致的潛在趨勢。這只是歸結為比較的本質。

Okay. But back to my question. Am I right in saying that we're kind into a normalized period on a year-over-year comparison? Or what you already seeing kind of normalized last quarter?

好的。但回到我的問題。我是否正確地說，我們已經進入了同比比較的正常化時期？或者您在上個季度已經看到的情況已經正常化了？

You are right to say that we started having very normalized comparisons early this year. In fourth quarter last year, we did see a pickup in elasticity. So you get that comparison benefit, if you will, in the fourth quarter. And we're not looking for versus '19 improvement in volume performance. So you can actually make the case that we'll have better performance in the fourth quarter. We're not making that case by any means, but very similar comparisons because of what I just said.

你說得對，我們今年年初開始進行非常標準化的比較。去年第四季度，我們確實看到彈性有所回升。因此，如果您願意的話，您可以在第四季度獲得比較優勢。我們並不是在尋求與 19 年相比體積性能的改進。所以你實際上可以證明我們在第四季度會有更好的表現。我們不會以任何方式進行這種情況，但由於我剛才所說的，進行了非常相似的比較。

Got it. And then just second, a follow-up on -- there been a lot of talk this quarter from consumer companies about weather. Obviously, your pig neck items, tableware type stuff would be affected, but I don't think you really mentioned it. Was it enough of an impact? Was it a normal summer weather-wise for your business? Any comments there?

知道了。其次，本季度消費者公司對天氣進行了很多討論。顯然，你的豬頸物品、餐具類物品會受到影響，但我認為你並沒有真正提到這一點。影響夠大嗎？對於您的企業來說，這是正常的夏季天氣嗎？有什麼意見嗎？

Normal weather wise from a consumer consumption of table where, yes, we are seeing elasticity issues that I mentioned in the tableware business is the prices have increased double digits, we've seen some pullback of consumer purchasing, and we're working to adjust price points accordingly as we have in household foil. Weather events have moderately impacted some of our manufacturing operations with some power outages over a day or so, but not had any impact on consumer demand that we've tracked.

從消費者的餐桌消費來看，正常天氣情況下，是的，我們看到了我在餐具業務中提到的彈性問題，即價格上漲了兩位數，我們看到消費者購買量有所回落，我們正在努力調整與我們家用箔紙一樣，相應的價格點。天氣事件對我們的一些製造業務產生了一定程度的影響，導致一些停電超過一天左右，但對我們跟踪的消費者需求沒有任何影響。

Next question is come from the line of Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Brian McNamara。

Congrats on the progress on your initiatives. So I don't mean to beat a dead horse on household inventories. But in layman's terms, is this promotional lever in foil healthy overall with the Fourth of July promotions creating pantry overload until the next promotion at the end of Q3, are these promotions required in your view? Like how do you think that would look with that.

祝賀您的舉措取得進展。因此，我並不是想在家庭庫存方面死馬當活。但用外行人的話來說，這種促銷槓桿總體上是否健康，7 月 4 日的促銷活動導致食品儲藏室超載，直到第三季度末的下一次促銷，您認為這些促銷活動是必要的嗎？就像你認為這樣搭配會怎麼樣。

Well, we've done holiday promotions in Memorial Day and leading in the Fourth of July, consistently prior to COVID, and it's been a very healthy improvement to our business and our share. And you can see we saw those share results and the volume uptake as a result in 2023 as well. So despite the fact that there's some household inventory build from an overall volume growth standpoint and profitability improvement. It's a very strong and good investment.

嗯，我們在陣亡將士紀念日進行了節日促銷，並在 7 月 4 日領先，一直在新冠疫情之前進行，這對我們的業務和份額來說是一個非常健康的改善。您可以看到，我們在 2023 年也看到了這些份額結果和銷量增長。因此，儘管從整體銷量增長和盈利能力改善的角度來看，家庭庫存有所增加。這是一項非常強大且良好的投資。

And how should investors think about the volume algorithm longer term across your business.

投資者應該如何考慮整個企業的長期交易量算法。

Our volume share?

我們的銷量份額？

No. volume Growth.

數量增長。

Yes. I would say that our volume growth is consistent with the categories. We are holding share or growing share in all of our categories and the categories are responding to some elasticity issues, which we're addressing through price points and promotions.

是的。我想說的是，我們的銷量增長與類別一致。我們在所有類別中都持有份額或不斷增加份額，這些類別正在應對一些彈性問題，我們正在通過價格點和促銷來解決這些問題。

The next question is the follow-up from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題是 Mark Astrachan 和 Stifel 的後續問題。

Just 2 things. One, on the interest expense, Michael, your guidance for 3Q, does that reflect the debt payments? Does that reflect lower rates?

只有兩件事。一，關於利息支出，邁克爾，您對第三季度的指導，這是否反映了債務支付？這是否反映了較低的利率？

Yes, it does. Both. Both.

是的，它確實。兩個都。兩個都。

Okay. Got it. And then just -- I know it's early and you don't want to talk about '24. I guess you had given some comments a year ago about how to think about gross profits. Anything that you can give in terms of how we think about continued recovery in gross margin and how that works with expectations for top line at this point, just maybe more hypothetically than anything else?

好的。知道了。然後——我知道現在還早，你不想談論“24”。我想您一年前曾就如何考慮毛利潤發表過一些評論。關於我們如何看待毛利率的持續復甦，以及這如何與目前對營收的預期相結合，您能給出什麼建議嗎？也許比其他任何事情都更具假設性？

Yes. I think (inaudible) broadly, it's a little too soon to talk about that at this time.

是的。我認為（聽不清）從廣義上講，現在談論這個還為時過早。

All right. I tried.

好的。我試過。

Good try, Mark.

很好的嘗試，馬克。

At this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I'll turn the call over to Lance Mitchell for closing remarks.

此時，我們的問答環節已經結束了。我將把電話轉給蘭斯·米切爾（Lance Mitchell）做總結髮言。

Thank you, everyone, for your questions and your interest in our business and Reynolds Consumer Products. I want to extend a sincere thank you to all of our employees and especially that many employees are responsible for the ongoing and effective execution of Reynolds Cooking and Baking recovery plan. Our business overall is performing well, and we look forward to updating you with further updates throughout the year. Thank you.

感謝大家提出問題以及對我們的業務和雷諾消費品的興趣。我想向我們所有的員工致以誠摯的謝意，特別是感謝許多員工負責雷諾烹飪和烘焙恢復計劃的持續有效執行。我們的業務總體表現良好，我們期待全年為您提供進一步的更新信息。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。