Reynolds Consumer Products Inc (REYN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Reynolds Consumer Products Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到雷諾消費品公司 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （接線員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mark Swartzberg. Thank you. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者 Mark Swartzberg。謝謝你。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Reynolds Consumer Products Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today are Lance Mitchell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Graham, Chief Financial Officer. For our agenda today, Lance will focus on market conditions and our fundamentals, and Michael will review our quarter and outlook. Then we will open it up for your questions.

早上好，感謝您加入我們的雷諾消費品公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官蘭斯·米切爾 (Lance Mitchell)；首席財務官 Michael Graham。對於我們今天的議程，Lance 將重點關注市場狀況和我們的基本面，Michael 將回顧我們的季度和展望。然後我們將打開它來回答您的問題。

During the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and other reports filed from -- filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and our press release issued this morning for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

在此電話會議期間，管理層可能會做出聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並涉及可能導致實際結果和結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果和成果大不相同的風險和不確定性。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 表格年度報告和其他報告以及我們今天上午發布的新聞稿，以詳細討論可能導致實際結果與所表達結果存在重大差異的風險或暗示在今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述中。

Please note management's remarks today will focus on non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP measures to non-GAAP financial measures is available in the earnings release posted under the Investor Relations heading on our website at reynoldsconsumerproduct.com. We have also prepared a few presentation slides and additional supplemental financial information, which are posted on our website under the Investor Relations heading. This call is being webcast, and an archive of it will also be available on the website. While we would like to answer all of your questions during the question-and-answer session, in the interest of time, we ask you ask 1 question and a follow-up and rejoin the queue if you have additional questions.

請注意，管理層今天的評論將集中在非 GAAP 或調整後的財務指標上。在我們網站 reynoldsconsumerproduct.com 上“投資者關係”標題下發布的收益發布中，提供了 GAAP 措施與非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬。我們還準備了一些演示幻燈片和其他補充財務信息，這些信息發佈在我們網站上的“投資者關係”標題下。此電話會議正在網絡廣播中，其存檔也將在網站上提供。雖然我們想在問答環節回答您的所有問題，但為了節省時間，我們會要求您提出 1 個問題和一個後續問題，如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Lance Mitchell.

現在我想把電話轉給 Lance Mitchell。

Thank you, Mark. We delivered another quarter in line with our earnings expectations in what continues to be a very dynamic environment. Third quarter highlights include the following: household foil and waste bag volume responded favorably to increased advertising, promotions and in-store features of displays. Reynolds and Hefty gained share in waste bags, household foil and disposable plates. Private label gained share in press to close food bags and disposable party cups, where we have a significant private label presence. We implemented previously announced pricing to offset additional cost increases. We accelerated revolution cost savings while also implementing new programs for savings. And as a result, we closed the gap between pricing and cost increases.

謝謝你，馬克。在仍然充滿活力的環境中，我們又交付了一個符合我們收益預期的季度。第三季度的亮點包括：家用鋁箔紙和垃圾袋銷量對增加的廣告、促銷和店內陳列功能做出了積極反應。 Reynolds 和 Hefty 在垃圾袋、家用箔紙和一次性盤子方面獲得了份額。自有品牌在新聞中獲得份額，以封閉食品袋和一次性派對杯，我們在這些領域擁有重要的自有品牌。我們實施了先前宣布的定價以抵消額外的成本增加。我們加快了革新成本的節約，同時還實施了新的節約計劃。結果，我們縮小了定價和成本增加之間的差距。

Our category leadership and agility drove these achievements while setting the stage for substantial margin expansion and profit growth in the fourth quarter and 2023. Before talking about performance drivers, I'd like to share a few thoughts about the economic environment and our market position. We assume increased elasticities going forward, which contributes to our fourth quarter revenue expectations now being at the low end of our previous range. That's obviously a headwind. But 1 of our strengths is our ability to adapt. And as I said, we are pleased with how consumption is responding to our pickup in promotions, advertising and in-store features and displays.

我們的類別領導地位和敏捷性推動了這些成就，同時為第四季度和 2023 年的利潤率大幅擴張和利潤增長奠定了基礎。在談論業績驅動因素之前，我想分享一些關於經濟環境和我們市場地位的想法。我們假設未來的彈性會增加，這導致我們第四季度的收入預期目前處於我們之前範圍的低端。這顯然是逆風。但我們的優勢之一是我們的適應能力。正如我所說，我們對消費如何響應我們在促銷、廣告和店內特色和展示方面的表現感到滿意。

I think it's also worth remembering that our integrated brand and store brand model is a competitive advantage. Reynolds and Hefty represent a large share of our categories and our private label portfolio complements our brands in mobile categories.

我認為還值得記住的是，我們的整合品牌和商店品牌模式是一種競爭優勢。 Reynolds 和 Hefty 在我們的品類中佔有很大份額，我們的自有品牌組合補充了我們在移動品類中的品牌。

Finally, as we enter the holiday season and develop our plans for next year, it's important to note that increased cooking and working at home have driven many of our categories to levels that are beyond those implied by the last 3 years of household formation. That's clear from our proprietary research, and it's validated by the scanner data.

最後，隨著我們進入假期並製定明年的計劃，請務必注意，烹飪和在家工作的增加已將我們的許多類別推高到超出過去 3 年家庭組建所暗示的水平。從我們的專有研究中可以清楚地看出這一點，並且通過掃描儀數據驗證了這一點。

According to IRI, equivalent volumes of waste bags, disposable party cups, parts for paper, bakeware and slow cooker liners have all grown in excess of 5% since 2019. And some of these categories are now more than 10% larger than they were prior to the pandemic.

根據 IRI 的數據，自 2019 年以來，同等體積的垃圾袋、一次性派對杯、紙張部件、烤盤和慢燉鍋內膽的增長都超過了 5%。其中一些類別現在比以前增加了 10% 以上到大流行。

Now let's turn to the main drivers of our performance, pricing, consumer demand, innovation and manufacturing and supply chain capabilities. In the area of pricing, recently announced increases in disposable tableware and waste bags have been implemented as planned in September and October, bringing annualized pricing to nearly $1 billion since mid-2020. We are reinvesting a portion of these increases in additional advertising and promotions and consumer demand for our categories and product portfolio is responding to our increases.

現在讓我們談談我們的業績、定價、消費者需求、創新以及製造和供應鏈能力的主要驅動因素。在定價方面，最近宣布的一次性餐具和垃圾袋的增加已按計劃在 9 月和 10 月實施，使自 2020 年年中以來的年化定價接近 10 億美元。我們將這些增長的一部分重新投資於額外的廣告和促銷活動，消費者對我們的類別和產品組合的需求正在響應我們的增長。

In household foil in June, we began increasing promotions, features and displays and are directed more advertising dollars to younger consumers. These measures have contributed to improving household foil trends, along with increases in Reynolds [rent] share of the foil category. We and our retail partners also increased promotions further in October and plan to continue similar promotions this holiday season.

在 6 月份的家用貼膜方面，我們開始增加促銷、特色和展示，並將更多的廣告資金投放給年輕的消費者。這些措施有助於改善家用鋁箔趨勢，同時提高鋁箔類別中雷諾 [租金] 的份額。我們和我們的零售合作夥伴也在 10 月份進一步增加了促銷活動，併計劃在這個假期繼續進行類似的促銷活動。

In waste of food bags, Hefty share trends improved and a share of private label remains strong. In disposable tableware, we gained share and maintained a substantial discount to paper plates while also implementing the additional pricing on disposable places.

在廢棄食品袋中，Hefty 的份額趨勢有所改善，自有品牌的份額仍然強勁。在一次性餐具方面，我們獲得了份額並保持了對紙盤的大幅折扣，同時還對一次性餐具實施了附加定價。

Third major contributor to our performance is innovation. In waste and storage, Hefty Fabuloso continued to grow strongly, nearing $110 million in annual retail sales for the quarter. We launched Hefty 4 and 8 gallon trash bags with gross string and the new ocean water set in the quarter. We introduced Hefty slider calendar bags, which allow for better recording of refrigerator or freezer storage time and Hefty made-to-fit trash bags in the e-comm channel. And we saw further consumer and retail adoption of standard bill private label food mix.

我們業績的第三個主要貢獻者是創新。在廢物處理和倉儲方面，Hefty Fabuloso 繼續強勁增長，本季度的年零售額接近 1.1 億美元。我們在本季度推出了 Hefty 4 加侖和 8 加侖垃圾袋，帶毛繩和新的海水套裝。我們推出了 Hefty 滑塊日曆袋，可以更好地記錄冰箱或冰櫃的存儲時間，並在電子商務渠道推出了 Hefty 定制垃圾袋。我們看到消費者和零售業進一步採用標準賬單自有品牌食品組合。

In cooking and baking, the Reynolds brand continue to benefit from innovation as Reynolds Wrap nonstick foil remains strong, Reynolds kitchen near fire liners and Reynolds Kitchens Butcher paper, helped to build Reynolds presence in certain adjacencies to household foil and other more established categories. And we achieved growth within our portfolio of sustainable products, including Hefty ECOSAVE, which grew strong double digits in the quarter and Hefty compostable printed paper plates. And additionally, we launched a new food bag made from 20% renewable plant and ocean materials.

在烹飪和烘焙方面，Reynolds 品牌繼續受益於創新，因為 Reynolds Wrap 不粘箔紙仍然很強勁，Reynolds kitchen near fire liners 和 Reynolds Kitchens Butcher paper 幫助 Reynolds 在某些毗鄰家用箔紙和其他更成熟的類別中佔據一席之地。我們的可持續產品組合實現了增長，包括 Hefty ECOSAVE，該產品在本季度實現了兩位數的強勁增長，以及 Hefty 可堆肥印刷紙盤。此外，我們還推出了一款由 20% 可再生植物和海洋材料製成的新型食品袋。

The fourth driver is the performance of our manufacturing and supply chain. The recent manufacturing and operational performance in the Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment has fallen short of our standards and historical results. Unplanned downtime in 2 of our plants has resulted in incremental manufacturing costs and impacted our ability to adequately supply nonretail customers.

第四個驅動因素是我們製造和供應鏈的表現。 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 部門最近的製造和運營業績低於我們的標準和歷史業績。我們 2 家工廠的計劃外停機導致製造成本增加，並影響了我們充分供應非零售客戶的能力。

In response, we are implementing operational changes to improve reliability and efficiency. In addition, we have made changes to the cooking and baking organization with new members of management who possess extensive experience in operations and demonstrated business leadership.

作為回應，我們正在實施運營變革以提高可靠性和效率。此外，我們還對烹飪和烘焙組織進行了調整，新管理層成員擁有豐富的運營經驗並展現出業務領導力。

In terms of service, we have produced substantial improvements across Reynolds Consumer Products, reflecting attainment of target staffing levels and increased stability across our supply chain.

在服務方面，我們對 Reynolds Consumer Products 進行了實質性改進，反映出達到了目標人員配置水平並提高了我們整個供應鏈的穩定性。

Now before I pass the call to Michael, I'd like to leave you with the following: the economic environment remains dynamic. Inflationary pressures continue and price elasticity continues to be uncertain. However, we are giving shoppers the trusted performance and additional value they seek in these uncertain times.

現在，在我將電話轉給邁克爾之前，我想給你們留下以下信息：經濟環境仍然充滿活力。通脹壓力持續存在，價格彈性仍不明朗。然而，我們正在為購物者提供他們在這些不確定時期所尋求的值得信賴的性能和附加價值。

And in terms of business performance, the gap between our pricing and cost increases is closed, and we're positioned for margin expansion and earnings growth in the fourth quarter in 2023. That implies not only a return to earnings growth, but also increased flexibility to invest in our categories and drive future innovation and consumption. I'm extremely proud of the RCP team and believe that we are well positioned to benefit from the actions we have taken over the last 2 years.

就業務績效而言，我們的定價與成本增長之間的差距已經縮小，我們準備在 2023 年第四季度實現利潤率擴張和盈利增長。這不僅意味著盈利增長回歸，還意味著靈活性增加投資於我們的類別並推動未來的創新和消費。我為 RCP 團隊感到非常自豪，並相信我們有能力從過去 2 年採取的行動中受益。

With that, over to you, Michael.

有了這個，就交給你了，邁克爾。

Thanks, Lance, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a review of our third quarter results, then turn to our outlook and why we are well positioned for margin expansion and earnings growth in the fourth quarter and in 2023.

謝謝，蘭斯，大家早上好。我將從回顧我們第三季度的業績開始，然後談談我們的前景，以及為什麼我們在第四季度和 2023 年的利潤率擴張和盈利增長方面處於有利地位。

Net revenues in the third quarter were $967 million, an increase of 7% over third quarter net revenues of $905 million in 2021, driven by price increases, partially offset by a decline in volume. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $116 million, down 12% versus last year's third quarter of $132 million, driven by lower volume and higher SG&A as price increases fully offset increases in material, manufacturing and logistics costs. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.24.

第三季度淨收入為 9.67 億美元，比 2021 年第三季度的 9.05 億美元淨收入增長 7%，受價格上漲的推動，部分被銷量下降所抵消。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.16 億美元，與去年第三季度的 1.32 億美元相比下降 12%，這是由於價格上漲完全抵消了材料、製造和物流成本的上漲，導致銷量下降和 SG&A 上漲。本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.24 美元。

Turning to our segment performance. Details are in our press release and in our 10-Q. However, I do want to cover a few key highlights. Pricing was up 14%, driven by increases across our entire portfolio, offsetting all material, manufacturing and logistic cost increases. This increase was partially offset by a 7% decline in volume, reflecting a 7% increase in Hefty tableware volume, more than offset by a 14% volume decline in Reynolds cooking and baking and high single-digit decline for each of Hefty Waste & Storage and Presto.

轉向我們的細分市場表現。詳細信息在我們的新聞稿和我們的 10-Q 中。但是，我確實想介紹幾個關鍵亮點。定價上漲 14%，受我們整個產品組合價格上漲的推動，抵消了所有材料、製造和物流成本的上漲。這一增長部分被銷量下降 7% 所抵消，這反映出 Hefty 餐具銷量增長 7%，但被 Reynolds 烹飪和烘焙銷量下降 14% 以及 Hefty Waste & Storage 的高個位數下降所抵消和急板。

When we reported our second quarter results, we shared our expectation of low to mid-single-digit volume decline in the third quarter. This largely played out as anticipated with the exception being nonretail sales that were impacted by unplanned downtime in the Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment and, to a lesser extent, increases in waste bag elasticities.

當我們報告第二季度業績時，我們分享了對第三季度中低個位數銷量下降的預期。這在很大程度上符合預期，但非零售銷售受到雷諾烹飪和烘焙部門意外停機的影響，並且在較小程度上受到垃圾袋彈性增加的影響。

So let's unpack the volume performance for the third quarter compared to prior year period. Reynolds cooking and baking volume decline of 14% was primarily driven by lower nonretail sales, which included reroll, related party sales and last year's onetime sales excess raw material. In addition, lower household oil shipments represented 3 points of this decline. Volume declined 9% in Hefty Waste & Storage driven by elasticity and increased consumer activity outside of the home.

因此，讓我們分析一下第三季度與去年同期相比的銷量表現。 Reynolds 烹飪和烘焙銷量下降 14%，這主要是由於非零售銷售額下降，其中包括再加工、關聯方銷售和去年的一次性銷售過剩原材料。此外，較低的家用石油出貨量佔這一下降的 3 個百分點。在彈性和家庭外消費者活動增加的推動下，Hefty Waste & Storage 的銷量下降了 9%。

Innovation was a key driver of Hefty's outperformance of the waste bag category. Presto volume declined 8%, also driven by a lower waste and food bag usage, partially offset by increased private label share of Presto close school bags. Hefty Tableware performance was strong, with volume up 7% in the quarter, driven by continued growth within the club channel and share gains for Hefty disposable plates and private label plastic party cups across channels.

創新是 Hefty 在垃圾袋類別中表現出色的關鍵驅動因素。 Presto 的銷量下降了 8%，這也是由於垃圾和食品袋的使用量減少，部分被 Presto 封閉式書包的自有品牌份額增加所抵消。 Hefty Tableware 表現強勁，本季度銷量增長 7%，這得益於俱樂部渠道的持續增長以及 Hefty 一次性盤子和自有品牌塑料派對杯跨渠道的份額增長。

Now before I go into our outlook, I would like to talk a little more about the performance we're seeing in Cooking & Baking. There are 3 key factors impacting the near-term profitability in this business: unplanned equipment downtime; driving higher manufacturing costs; and lower production volume. This lower production volume is impacting our ability to fulfill nonretail demand. In addition, as a result, we are experiencing a negative impact in terms of when lower-cost metal flows through to our P&L. As Lance discussed, we are implementing operational changes to improve reliability and efficiency in our cooking and baking operations.

現在，在我進入我們的展望之前，我想多談談我們在烹飪和烘焙方面看到的表現。有 3 個關鍵因素影響該業務的近期盈利能力： 計劃外設備停機；推動更高的製造成本；和較低的產量。較低的產量正在影響我們滿足非零售需求的能力。此外，因此，我們在低成本金屬何時流入我們的損益表方面受到了負面影響。正如 Lance 所討論的，我們正在實施運營變革，以提高我們烹飪和烘焙業務的可靠性和效率。

Now turning to our outlook. We now expect revenue growth of approximately 8% for the year, along with gross profit in the low $800 million range. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $560 million to $575 million and adjusted EPS of $1.30 to $1.36 per share. Our updated guidance reflects reduced expectations for the comparatively low margin reroll and related party sales as well as a pickup in elasticities in portions of our business. We also assume rates for key commodities are stable by comparison to the end of October levels.

現在轉向我們的前景。我們現在預計全年收入增長約 8%，毛利潤將在 8 億美元左右。調整後的 EBITDA 在 5.6 億美元至 5.75 億美元之間，調整後的每股收益在 1.30 美元至 1.36 美元之間。我們更新後的指引反映了對相對較低的利潤率重新滾動和關聯方銷售的預期降低，以及我們部分業務的彈性回升。我們還假設與 10 月底的水平相比，主要商品的利率保持穩定。

Other key assumptions for the year include depreciation and amortization of approximately $120 million; interest expense of approximately $75 million versus an estimated $70 million previously driven by increasing market rates and an effective tax rate of 25% and capital spending of approximately $135 million to $140 million.

本年度的其他主要假設包括約 1.2 億美元的折舊和攤銷；利息支出約為 7500 萬美元，而此前估計為 7000 萬美元，原因是市場利率上升和 25% 的有效稅率以及資本支出約為 1.35 億美元至 1.4 億美元。

In terms of the fourth quarter, additional elasticity in portions of our business changes our volume expectations to decline in the low to mid-single digits. We are on track for margin expansion and earnings growth in the fourth quarter driven by further recovery of cost increases as new pricing in flows through and cost increases moderate. We also expect SG&A to increase driven by advertising, investment in operational improvements and compensation-related comparisons.

就第四季度而言，我們部分業務的額外彈性改變了我們的銷量預期，下降幅度為中低個位數。我們有望在第四季度實現利潤率增長和收益增長，這是由於隨著新定價的流入和成本增長溫和，成本增長進一步恢復。我們還預計 SG&A 將在廣告、運營改進投資和薪酬相關比較的推動下增加。

Now before I turn the call back over to Mark and your questions, I want to leave you with a few thoughts on cash flow. Just as we are committed to returning to pre-pandemic profitability, we're equally focused on improving balance sheet efficiency and maintaining capital spending discipline to drive additional cash flow. We expect this to commence in the fourth quarter as we unwind from our normal seasonal peak in working capital, earnings growth and commodity cost pressures ease.

現在，在我把電話轉回給馬克和你的問題之前，我想給你留下一些關於現金流的想法。正如我們致力於恢復大流行前的盈利能力一樣，我們同樣專注於提高資產負債表效率和維持資本支出紀律以推動額外的現金流。我們預計這將在第四季度開始，因為我們從正常的營運資金季節性高峰中解脫出來，盈利增長和商品成本壓力有所緩解。

In terms of capital allocation, our priorities are unchanged, and we intend to return to debt paydown in 2023. In closing, while we continue to manage through a very challenging environment. I'm encouraged by the actions we've taken as well as the implications for our future results.

在資本配置方面，我們的優先事項沒有改變，我們打算在 2023 年恢復償還債務。最後，我們將繼續管理一個非常具有挑戰性的環境。我對我們採取的行動以及對我們未來結果的影響感到鼓舞。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to you, Mark. Thank you.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給你，馬克。謝謝你。

Thanks, Michael. As I turn it over to the operator for your questions, I'd like to remind you that you ask 1 question and a follow-up and then rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator?

謝謝，邁克爾。當我將它轉交給接線員回答你的問題時，我想提醒你，你先問 1 個問題，然後再跟進，如果你還有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

I just wanted to follow up on the cooking and baking profitability issue. I appreciate the comments. But I guess -- would a leadership change maybe implies there's a little bit bigger or longer-lasting issues. So maybe any color around that of when you think things can get back to where you want them to be and how long it would take?

我只是想跟進烹飪和烘焙盈利問題。我很欣賞這些評論。但我想——領導層的變動是否意味著存在更大或更持久的問題。因此，當您認為事情可以回到您想要的位置以及需要多長時間時，也許會有任何顏色？

Yes. So as Lance stated in his remarks, the recent manufacturing operational performance of Reynolds and cooking and baking is falling short of our standard and our historical results. So we've had demonstrated capabilities as proven in the past. In terms of what's driving that, as I said in my remarks, it's unplanned equipment downtime and this is driving higher manufacturing costs and lower production volume. That's impacting our ability to fulfill nonretail demand, it's also slowing down a flow-through of our lower cost metal, which has a significant impact to our Q4.

是的。因此，正如蘭斯在他的發言中所說，雷諾最近的製造運營績效以及烹飪和烘焙都沒有達到我們的標準和我們的歷史結果。所以我們已經展示了過去證明的能力。就驅動因素而言，正如我在發言中所說，這是計劃外的設備停機，這導致製造成本上升和產量下降。這影響了我們滿足非零售需求的能力，它也減緩了我們低成本金屬的流動，這對我們的第四季度產生了重大影響。

While most of these issues are temporary in nature, we are implementing operational changes to address them all, and Lance kind of spoke to that. So we do see this as being a temporary challenge that we're working through. We -- as it relates to the change with leadership, obviously, we brought in a person with significantly greater operational experience to help us manage through this.

雖然這些問題中的大多數本質上都是暫時的，但我們正在實施運營變革以解決所有這些問題，Lance 也談到了這一點。所以我們確實認為這是我們正在努力解決的一個臨時挑戰。我們 - 因為它與領導層的變化有關，顯然，我們帶來了一個具有更多運營經驗的人來幫助我們管理這一點。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up, and you might have talked about this before, but when you comment about returning to kind of pre-pandemic profitability levels in '23, is that -- I know you're not giving guidance, but is that for 2023 or within -- or during 2023, you'll reach that on kind of a run rate?

知道了。然後作為後續行動，你之前可能已經談過這個，但是當你評論說要在 23 年恢復到大流行前的盈利水平時，我知道你沒有給出指導，但是是在 2023 年還是在 2023 年之內——或者在 2023 年期間，你會以某種運行率達到這個目標？

So it is within 2023 is where we're talking about returning back to prepaid profitability.

因此，我們將在 2023 年內討論恢復預付盈利能力。

Got you. Should be a run rate as we move through the year.

明白了應該是我們一年中的運行率。

Yes.

是的。

Question comes from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

I guess 2 questions for me. One, if you could just give maybe a bit of background on what happened from a sales perspective relative to early September and your updated thoughts at that point relative to where results came in, kind of what progressed through September? And is that sort of directionally what we're hearing from an elasticity standpoint implied in the fourth quarter commentary.

我想我有 2 個問題。第一，如果你能從銷售角度提供一些關於 9 月初發生的事情的背景，以及你在那個時候相對於結果的最新想法，那麼 9 月份的進展情況如何？從第四季度評論中暗示的彈性角度來看，我們聽到的就是這種方向性的聲音。

And then, the main question is what drove the increase in promotion and price gaps in waste bags? And are you happy with where you are as volumes worsened in the quarter and maybe give some expectations on where we go from here?

那麼，主要問題是什麼推動了垃圾袋促銷和價格差距的增加？隨著本季度銷量的惡化，您對自己的處境感到滿意嗎？也許對我們從這裡走向何方有一些期望？

Thank you, Mark. September volume across our products and segments came in line with our forecast and our expectations. So there was really no difference from what we talked about at the Barclays conference relative to the September results. We have, from a category standpoint in waste bags, we implemented a Hefty waste bag price increase in September.

謝謝你，馬克。我們產品和細分市場的 9 月份銷量符合我們的預測和預期。因此，與我們在巴克萊銀行會議上談論的內容與 9 月份的結果沒有什麼不同。從垃圾袋類別的角度來看，我們在 9 月份實施了 Hefty 垃圾袋價格上漲。

And the promotions we have added are off of a small base and they're focused on quality, features and displays like end caps, not just price points. The category itself is 7% larger than it was in 2019 year-to-date, but elasticity and reopening are driving some category declines versus year ago levels. So our strategy remains as to what it's been for many years, support the category and our retail partners with a strong portfolio of branded and private label products and drive Hefty as a brand offering with the best combination of value.

我們添加的促銷活動的基礎很小，它們側重於質量、功能和顯示（如端蓋），而不僅僅是價格點。該類別本身比 2019 年年初至今大 7%，但彈性和重新開放正在推動一些類別與去年同期相比下降。因此，我們的戰略仍然是多年來的戰略，通過強大的品牌和自有品牌產品組合支持該類別和我們的零售合作夥伴，並推動 Hefty 成為具有最佳價值組合的品牌產品。

That's benefited the category, and our portfolio is -- and requires continued adjustments to be successful. Hefty is outperforming the category. The last 4 weeks ending October 30, and the scan EQ, the category is down 8.5, while Hefty is down 3.8. And for the last 12, it's similar. The category is down 7.5 and Hefty is down 3. And we're looking at EQ performance because looking at dollars in the category is really blurred by the price increases.

這有利於該類別，我們的投資組合是 - 並且需要持續調整才能成功。 Hefty 的表現優於該類別。截至 10 月 30 日的最後 4 週，掃描 EQ，該類別下降了 8.5，而 Hefty 下降了 3.8。對於最後 12 個，它是相似的。該類別下降了 7.5，而 Hefty 下降了 3。我們關注的是 EQ 性能，因為看這個類別的美元確實被價格上漲所模糊。

Our next question is from Rob Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Two questions, please. One, in the shorter term on results, just maybe a little bit more detail and thoughts on the trend in improvement on the foils, and then a little bit kind of forward looking. Can you give us just some way to think about the potential benefit to your business with a more constrained consumer who may be thinking about trying to save money by eating more at home and less at restaurants. And how that's likely to play into your business?

請教兩個問題。第一，在短期內的結果，可能只是更多的細節和對箔改進趨勢的思考，然後是一點點的前瞻性。你能不能給我們一些方法來考慮你的業務對一個更拘束的消費者的潛在好處，他們可能正在考慮通過多在家吃飯少去餐館來省錢。這對您的業務有何影響？

Yes, I think both of those questions can really be answered in terms of what's happening with the foil category and what we're seeing from the promotional activity that we've taken. The pandemic has benefited cooking and baking behavior and consumers. People are in the kitchen more, and we did a proprietary survey that they're cooking more often, the younger consumers have come into the category and stayed in the category. And recently, because of the higher cost of eating out, they're coming back and eating in the home more frequently than they were earlier in the year.

是的，我認為這兩個問題都可以根據鋁箔類別的情況以及我們從促銷活動中看到的情況來回答。大流行有利於烹飪和烘焙行為以及消費者。人們更多地在廚房裡，我們做了一項專有調查，他們做飯的頻率更高，年輕的消費者進入了這個類別並留在了這個類別中。最近，由於外出就餐的成本更高，與今年早些時候相比，他們更頻繁地回到家中就餐。

Our category and our brands are responding to advertising promotion as we talked about in the prepared remarks. Now on the challenge side, we do see that the consumers are not leaving the category, but versus during the pandemic, the daily usage has dropped moderately. And there are some other options in the kitchen, which is an opportunity as well as a challenge. They've got other options for creating a meal appliances other than a stove or grill was include air fryers and instant pods and slow cookers, for example.

正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，我們的類別和品牌正在響應廣告促銷。現在在挑戰方面，我們確實看到消費者並沒有離開該類別，但與大流行期間相比，日常使用量有所下降。而廚房裡還有一些其他的選擇，這是機遇也是挑戰。除了爐子或烤架，他們還有其他製作餐具的選擇，例如空氣炸鍋、即食豆莢和慢燉鍋。

So overall, we're very pleased with how the promotions have responded. And as we head into the holiday season, we've really got a lot of promotions in place and got the price points in place for the category.

總的來說，我們對促銷活動的反應非常滿意。當我們進入假期時，我們確實進行了很多促銷活動，並為該類別制定了價格點。

Our next question is from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So my question is regarding your comment about the 7% increase in -- from 2019 through the pandemic, especially for trash bags. And then I think for cooking, baking, side some categories, I'm assuring Cooking & Baking was above 10%. Is that a volume consideration? And if so, from a total outstanding from the consumer standpoint, like are you assuming, again, it has been bigger price elasticity. And on top of that, you had these service issues. Is there any indication that this is going to be abating into the first quarter of next year. And if not, what is the scenario that would lead you to for -- that margin inflection you're assuming some volume recovery into 2023? In other words, what we need to see in order for you to get the margin accretion. Is that the pricing continue sticking or the $525 million in inflation abating? What needs to happen in order to get there?

所以我的問題是關於你對從 2019 年到大流行期間增長 7% 的評論，尤其是垃圾袋。然後我認為對於烹飪、烘焙和某些類別，我保證烹飪和烘焙在 10% 以上。那是體積考慮嗎？如果是這樣，從消費者的角度來看，總的來說，就像你假設的那樣，價格彈性更大。最重要的是，您遇到了這些服務問題。是否有任何跡象表明這種情況將在明年第一季度減弱。如果不是，那麼會導致您出現什麼情況——您假設到 2023 年銷量會有所回升？換句話說，我們需要看到什麼才能讓您獲得保證金增長。是定價繼續堅持還是 5.25 億美元的通貨膨脹減弱？為了到達那裡需要發生什麼？

Let's talk about what's happening in each of the categories versus 2019 and as we've gone through the pandemic and we're now in 2022. First, I'll just add to some of the comments I made about the foil category and answering Bill's question. There are several things that are driving the growth in the foil category. People are cooking more now than they were in 2019. Foil and parted usage continues to be higher than pre-pandemic levels, and 78% of consumers are eating at home more in response to inflation, as I mentioned a moment ago.

讓我們談談每個類別與 2019 年相比發生了什麼，我們已經經歷了大流行，現在是 2022 年。首先，我將補充我對箔類別的一些評論並回答 Bill 的問題。有幾件事正在推動箔類別的增長。與 2019 年相比，現在人們做飯的次數更多。鋁箔和分開的食物使用量繼續高於大流行前的水平，而且正如我剛才提到的，78% 的消費者更多地在家吃飯以應對通貨膨脹。

Importantly, we've achieved key price points for Reynolds Wrap. We've stepped up promotions have gotten below the $5 price point and have gotten that across the other product lines as well. And private label gaps in the category returning to historical levels when Reynolds Wrap is on promotion. So we've achieved those price points. We've introduced additional promotions in grocery, club and dollar channels in October, and our retail partners plan additional promotions leading into Thanksgiving and Christmas.

重要的是，我們已經實現了 Reynolds Wrap 的關鍵價格點。我們加大了促銷力度，將價格降至 5 美元以下，並在其他產品線中也做到了這一點。當 Reynolds Wrap 促銷時，自有品牌在該類別中的差距恢復到歷史水平。所以我們已經達到了這些價格點。我們在 10 月份在雜貨店、俱樂部和美元渠道推出了額外的促銷活動，我們的零售合作夥伴計劃在感恩節和聖誕節前夕進行額外的促銷活動。

So Reynolds Wrap is responding better than the category as a result. In EQ, as I mentioned, across all of our categories, we're evaluating EQ performance versus dollar performance and Reynolds Wrap EQ was up 4.5% versus the same period in 2019. So that's the last 12 weeks ended October 30.

因此，Reynolds Wrap 的響應優於同類產品。在 EQ 方面，正如我提到的，在我們所有的類別中，我們正在評估 EQ 表現與美元表現的關係，Reynolds Wrap EQ 與 2019 年同期相比增長了 4.5%。這是截至 10 月 30 日的最後 12 週。

Turning to waste bags, the stay at home more frequently trend and working more frequently from home has left waste bags healthier than it was prior to the pandemic. The category is strong versus 2018. It's up 7% year-to-date, as I mentioned, reflecting consumers spending more time at home.

談到垃圾袋，更頻繁地呆在家裡的趨勢和更頻繁地在家工作使得垃圾袋比大流行之前更健康。與 2018 年相比，這一類別表現強勁。正如我提到的，今年迄今增長了 7%，這反映出消費者在家裡的時間更多了。

Food bag consumption on the other hand is moderately down versus 2019, and that's primarily driven by elasticity. So as the playbook that we've been using for foil and waste bags, we're going to be doing the same in food bags to get the price points correct.

另一方面，與 2019 年相比，食品袋消費量略有下降，這主要是由彈性驅動的。因此，作為我們一直用於鋁箔袋和垃圾袋的劇本，我們將在食品袋中做同樣的事情，以獲得正確的價格點。

In disposable tableware, plastic party cups were up 9% versus 2019 levels, driven by increased everyday use at home. Now disposable foam dishes are down versus 2019, but that's completely driven by supply constraints. We are selling as much foam dishes as we have supply. And our brand year-to-date is actually up 5%.

在一次性餐具中，塑料派對杯比 2019 年增長了 9%，這是受家庭日常使用增加的推動。現在一次性泡沫盤子比 2019 年有所下降，但這完全是由供應限制驅動的。我們出售的泡沫盤子和我們供應的一樣多。我們的品牌年初至今實際上上漲了 5%。

We see the use of disposable tableware has been steady this year across the category and heading into the holiday season. This may continue to be a key theme of driving consumer behavior, desire for convenience as well as keeping tours to a minimum as well as holiday gatherings is factored into our forecast for the quarter. But we are seeing elasticity pick up as we took a significant price increase in October in the tableware business and we'll be watching that closely.

我們看到今年一次性餐具的使用在整個品類中保持穩定，並進入了節日季。這可能仍然是推動消費者行為的一個關鍵主題，我們對本季度的預測中考慮了對便利的渴望以及將旅行和假期聚會保持在最低限度。但我們看到彈性回升，因為我們在 10 月份對餐具業務進行了大幅提價，我們將密切關注這一情況。

That's helpful. And on the margin front, what needs to happen in terms of like price elasticity and inflation, cost inflation into 2023, going back to Bill's question.

這很有幫助。在保證金方面，價格彈性和通貨膨脹、2023 年的成本通貨膨脹等方面需要發生什麼，回到比爾的問題。

Yes. As we said in our prepared remarks, we've closed the gap. And we've closed the gap primarily through our pricing actions and the tableware was the significant 1 as well as waste bags that we took that led into Q4. So with that, with the easing of commodities, we will have a margin that as we go into 2023 and Q4 as well will be improved and back to more normalized levels.

是的。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們已經縮小了差距。我們主要通過我們的定價行動縮小了差距，餐具是重要的 1 以及我們帶入第四季度的垃圾袋。因此，隨著大宗商品的寬鬆，我們將有一個利潤率，隨著我們進入 2023 年和第四季度，我們也將有所改善並回到更正常的水平。

Okay. That's super helpful. And Michael, I'll pass it on.

好的。這非常有幫助。邁克爾，我會把它傳遞下去。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Great. Lance, your prepared remarks and the comments you've just gone through on category demand and the competitive dynamics all very, very constructive. And so I wanted to just sort of bullet down and see that to ask if the operational challenges you've got in the cooking and baking segment, if that's really what you would attribute fourth quarter looking a little bit softer than prior expectations what that's really attributable to? And I know you said it's short term, you're making changes. But how should we think about that? Does that lead into '23 at all? Or is it kind of a second half of '22 and then you think things should be back to normal from that nonretail in manufacturing side of things?

偉大的。蘭斯，你準備好的評論和你剛剛對類別需求和競爭動態的評論都非常非常有建設性。因此，我想簡要說明一下，看看您在烹飪和烘焙領域是否遇到了運營挑戰，如果這真的是您認為第四季度看起來比之前的預期略微疲軟的原因，那到底是什麼歸因於？我知道你說這是短期的，你正在做出改變。但是我們應該如何考慮呢？這會導致 23 年嗎？或者它是 22 年的下半年，然後你認為事情應該從製造業的非零售方面恢復正常？

I'll answer that one, and we can add to it, Michael, if you'd like. The driver of Q4 EBITDA guide being lower is volume. It's $7 million to $8 million at the midpoint. The lower volume is primarily non-retail. And as we mentioned, the specific products in our prepared remarks, what non-retail is and some increased elasticities versus what we saw in Q3. So it's driven primarily by an elasticity look at our volume in Q4 versus where we were in Q3, what we guided. The increased manufacturing costs are short term and offset by revolution and SG&A enabled reductions.

我會回答那個問題，邁克爾，如果你願意，我們可以添加。第四季度 EBITDA 指南較低的驅動因素是銷量。中點是 700 萬到 800 萬美元。較低的數量主要是非零售。正如我們提到的，我們準備好的評論中的特定產品，非零售是什麼，以及與我們在第三季度看到的相比，一些增加的彈性。因此，這主要是由彈性看待我們在第四季度的交易量與我們在第三季度的交易量所驅動的，這是我們所指導的。增加的製造成本是短期的，並被革命和 SG&A 帶來的減少所抵消。

Okay. All right. That's great. So as I look into '23, you guys had previously spoken to mid-900s for gross profit dollars and that really being kind of the math on pre-pandemic profitability with an assumption on volume. I'm guessing now with elasticity being a bit more significant than what you previously expected, we should anchor to something a bit lower when we think about that gross profit level for '23?

好的。好的。那太棒了。因此，當我研究 23 年時，你們之前曾與 900 年代中期談過毛利潤美元，這實際上是一種基於銷量假設的大流行前盈利能力的數學。我猜現在彈性比你之前預期的要大一些，當我們考慮 23 年的毛利潤水平時，我們應該錨定在一個較低的水平上？

Yes. I think that's correct. But mid-900s are still in the ballpark. And clearly, elasticities are greater than we anticipated and reported in Q2. We did kind of give an indication to that, that was a watch out. So that is overall concern. So I think the -- while in the ballpark, I would say that it is a bit lower than we were originally thinking.

是的。我認為這是正確的。但 900 年代中期仍在球場上。顯然，彈性比我們在第二季度預期和報告的要大。我們確實在某種程度上表明了這一點，那就是當心。所以這是整體問題。所以我認為 - 在球場上，我會說它比我們最初的想法要低一些。

Okay. All right. That's great. Yes, go ahead, sorry.

好的。好的。那太棒了。是的，繼續，對不起。

We're working to identify additional revolution savings to mitigate, and we'll obviously be more specific when we report in February.

我們正在努力確定額外的革命儲蓄以減輕影響，我們顯然會在 2 月份報告時更加具體。

Okay. That's great. The -- on elasticity, I guess, what is historically -- and I know for a lot of categories, the historic models don't -- aren't even relevant because pricing has gone so far beyond what's been the case historically. So would you characterize that as kind of what's been the case for your elasticity models? Is it something about the kind of cross elasticity of overall inflation that's making it a bit worse? And we're kind of on like a one-for-one type dynamic now is what you're forecasting or something still a bit less than that?

好的。那太棒了。關於彈性，我想，歷史上的東西——我知道對於很多類別，歷史模型都沒有——甚至不相關，因為定價已經遠遠超出了歷史上的情況。那麼，您是否會將其描述為您的彈性模型的情況？是不是整體通脹的交叉彈性讓情況變得更糟？我們現在有點像一對一的動態是你預測的還是比這少一點？

Our categories have been moderately elastic historically with a defined range of 1% to 1.5% negative. Part may be the exception. When price thresholds are crossed, that's more significant in our categories than the actual price gaps. And so that's why we're watching those price thresholds and adjusting accordingly and having success in doing so across most of our categories today. Our categories are defined as staples, need given categories and react to price change accordingly within this moderately elastic range.

我們的類別在歷史上一直具有適度的彈性，定義範圍為 1% 至 1.5% 為負。部分可能例外。當超過價格閾值時，這在我們的類別中比實際價格差距更重要。因此，這就是為什麼我們正在關注這些價格門檻並相應地進行調整，並在今天的大多數類別中都取得了成功。我們的類別被定義為必需品，需要給定類別並在這個適度彈性範圍內相應地對價格變化做出反應。

Okay. That's great. I'll pass it on.

好的。那太棒了。我會傳下去的。

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

So lots of comments today about how volume in your categories is still elevated. I think you mentioned that daily use for core categories is drifting off the highs, but still well above where we were Presto pre-COVID. Lance, Michael, as you guys think forward, how much -- what's the cadence pace and magnitude that you expect that to online as we go through next year?

今天有很多關於您的類別中的數量仍然增加的評論。我想你提到過，核心類別的日常使用量正在從高位回落，但仍遠高於我們在 COVID 之前的 Presto 水平。蘭斯，邁克爾，正如你們所想的那樣，你們希望明年我們在線時的節奏和幅度是多少？

We have not completed our plan for 2023. And we're going through that process now. It would be premature for us to be able to comment on what our outlook is for 2023 from a volume and elasticity standpoint. We certainly want to see how things develop in Q4 as we've gotten some price points in place, and we're entering our holiday season, which is significant for several of our categories. Once we get through that, we'll have a much better [Reynold] 2023 and the outlook for volume in that year.

我們還沒有完成 2023 年的計劃。我們現在正在經歷這個過程。從數量和彈性的角度評論我們對 2023 年的展望還為時過早。我們當然希望看到第四季度的情況如何發展，因為我們已經確定了一些價格點，並且我們正在進入假期，這對我們的幾個類別來說意義重大。一旦我們度過難關，我們將擁有更好的 [Reynold] 2023 和那一年的銷量前景。

Is it fair to say that, that mid-900 guidance out there for gross profit assumes that not all this volume sticks?

可以公平地說，毛利的 900 中期指導假設並非所有這些數量都保持不變？

As Michael said, I think it's still in that neighborhood, but elasticity is greater than when we reported in Q2. And so we've got to work through that before we're able to update the mid-900s.

正如邁克爾所說，我認為它仍在那個街區，但彈性比我們在第二季度報告時更大。因此，在我們能夠更新 900 年代中期之前，我們必須解決這個問題。

Okay. All right. I'll stay tuned.

好的。好的。我會繼續關注。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Lance Mitchell for concluding comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我現在想把發言權交還給 Lance Mitchell，請他發表結論性意見。

Thank you for your questions, and we appreciate your time this morning. I think our business is well positioned for any economic environment, and we anticipate earnings growth in the fourth quarter and in 2023. And I also want to thank all of our employees and our retail partners. They've been dedicated and contributing during these really challenging and dynamic times. Thank you, everyone.

感謝您提出問題，感謝您今天早上抽出寶貴時間。我認為我們的業務在任何經濟環境下都處於有利地位，我們預計第四季度和 2023 年的收益將增長。我還要感謝我們所有的員工和我們的零售合作夥伴。在這些充滿挑戰和充滿活力的時代，他們一直致力於奉獻並做出貢獻。謝謝大家。

This -- the conference has now ended. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

這-- 會議現已結束。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。