Reynolds Consumer Products Inc (REYN) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

您好，歡迎來到 Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mark Swartzberg, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人，投資者關係部的 Mark Swartzberg。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Reynolds Consumer Products Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today are Lance Mitchell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Graham, Chief Financial Officer. For our agenda today, Lance will focus on market conditions and our fundamentals, and Mike will review our quarter and outlook.

早上好，感謝您參加雷諾消費產品 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官 Lance Mitchell；和首席財務官邁克爾·格雷厄姆。對於我們今天的議程，Lance 將專注於市場狀況和我們的基本面，Mike 將審查我們的季度和展望。

Together, our remarks will be approximately 20 minutes, then we will open it up for your questions. During the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

在一起，我們的發言將大約 20 分鐘，然後我們將打開它來回答您的問題。在本次電話會議期間，管理層可能會做出聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並涉及可能導致實際結果和結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果和結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。

Please refer to Reynolds Consumer Products' annual report on Form 10-K and other reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and its press release issued this morning for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱 Reynolds Consumer Products 的 10-K 表格年度報告和不時向證券交易委員會提交的其他報告及其今天上午發布的新聞稿，詳細討論可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的風險來自今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的內容。

Please note management's remarks today will focus on non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP measures to non-GAAP financial measures is available in the earnings release posted under the Investor Relations heading on our website at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com.

請注意，管理層今天的言論將集中在非公認會計原則或調整後的財務指標上。 GAAP 指標與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬可在我們網站 reynoldsconsumerproducts.com 上投資者關係標題下發布的收益發布中找到。

The company has also prepared a few presentation slides and additional supplemental financial information, which are posted on Reynolds' website under the Investor Relations heading. This call is being webcast, and an archive of it will also be available on the website. (Operator Instructions).

該公司還準備了一些演示幻燈片和其他補充財務信息，這些信息已發佈在雷諾茲網站上的投資者關係標題下。此次電話會議正在進行網絡直播，其存檔也將在網站上提供。 （操作員說明）。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Lance Mitchell.

現在我想把電話轉給 Lance Mitchell。

Thank you, Mark. We delivered another quarter in line with our earnings expectations in what continues to be a very dynamic environment. First half and second quarter highlights include continued share strength across our business, share gains in branded waste bags, branded disposable tableware and multiple cooking and baking categories, a return to shipments aligned with consumption, further narrowing of the price to cost gap across most of our business, including a further improvement in waste bag profitability, delivery and expansion of Reyvolution savings.

謝謝你，馬克。在仍然充滿活力的環境中，我們又交付了一個季度，符合我們的盈利預期。上半年和第二季度的亮點包括我們業務的持續份額優勢、品牌垃圾袋、品牌一次性餐具和多種烹飪和烘焙類別的份額增長、出貨量與消費保持一致、進一步縮小大部分地區的價格與成本差距我們的業務，包括垃圾袋盈利能力的進一步提高、Reyvolution 節省的交付和擴展。

A substantial slowdown in foil consumption has been challenging. However, category declines have been moderating since late June, our branded volume share is growing again, and a number of corrective actions are underway to address this issue.

鋁箔消費的大幅放緩具有挑戰性。然而，自 6 月下旬以來，品類下降一直在緩和，我們的品牌銷量份額再次增長，並且正在採取一些糾正措施來解決這個問題。

In addition, lower cost inventory has a positive impact on foil margins as we head into the holiday season. I will go into our foil plans and other revenue drivers in a moment. But before I do, I want to highlight a few things about the environment and our unique advantages and position within it.

此外，隨著我們進入假日季節，較低成本的庫存對鋁箔利潤率產生積極影響。稍後我將介紹我們的箔紙計劃和其他收入驅動因素。但在此之前，我想強調一些關於環境的事情以及我們在其中的獨特優勢和地位。

Our category advisers are diligently working with our retail partners to support our categories and drive traffic. And as you would expect, consumer behavior during these dynamic times is top of mind. That means we are having numerous discussions about the optimum balance of brand and private label, promotions, tax sizes and features and displays.

我們的品類顧問正在努力與我們的零售合作夥伴合作，以支持我們的品類並增加客流量。正如您所料，在這些動態時期的消費者行為是首要考慮因素。這意味著我們正在就品牌和自有品牌、促銷、稅收規模以及功能和展示的最佳平衡進行大量討論。

I also want to point out that our price leadership and the cumulative value of our pricing actions, together with declines in aluminum and polyethylene rates, are producing a closer alignment between price and cost, which we have been pursuing since late 2020.

我還想指出，我們的價格領先地位和我們定價行動的累積價值，以及鋁和聚乙烯價格的下降，正在使價格和成本之間更加一致，這是我們自 2020 年底以來一直在追求的。

This translates into an anticipated margin expansion and earnings growth in the fourth quarter, and a significant increase in flexibility to invest in trade, advertising and other category drivers as we plan for the holidays and next year.

這轉化為第四季度預期的利潤率增長和盈利增長，以及在我們計劃假期和明年時投資於貿易、廣告和其他類別驅動因素的靈活性顯著增加。

Michael will elaborate on that shortly. Now let's talk about our main drivers of growth: pricing, consumer demand, innovation and manufacturing and supply chain capabilities. In the area of pricing, we began increasing foil promotions in June, motivated by the historically strong impact of promotions, and we are encouraged by the consumer and retail response.

邁克爾將很快詳細說明。現在讓我們談談我們的主要增長動力：定價、消費者需求、創新以及製造和供應鏈能力。在定價方面，我們在 6 月開始增加鋁箔促銷，這是由於促銷的歷史性強烈影響，我們受到消費者和零售業反應的鼓舞。

We are implementing additional promotional activity over the balance of the year, including a substantial step-up in October, in order to drive holiday-related demand. We've announced another round of pricing for our tableware products to offset the additional cost increases for polystyrene resin and an additional increase for Hefty brand waste bags.

我們將在今年餘下時間實施額外的促銷活動，包括在 10 月份大幅增加促銷活動，以推動與假期相關的需求。我們已宣布對我們的餐具產品進行另一輪定價，以抵消聚苯乙烯樹脂的額外成本增加和 Hefty 品牌垃圾袋的額外增加。

In terms of elasticity, the foil category is demonstrating the largest increase in elasticity, prompting many of our actions. Our other categories are also seeing increased elasticity by comparison to what we were seeing earlier in the year, and we are watching them all closely. Changes in consumer consumption in our categories has been more dynamic than we have seen historically. We will continue to respond with corrective measures.

在彈性方面，鋁箔類別的彈性增幅最大，促使我們採取了許多行動。與今年早些時候看到的相比，我們的其他類別也看到了更大的彈性，我們正在密切關注它們。我們品類中消費者消費的變化比我們以往看到的更加動態。我們將繼續採取糾正措施作出回應。

Turning to consumer demand. As you know, our products are in 95% of U.S. households, and we have benefited from the changes in habits triggered by the pandemic. We've been meeting these changes in habits. And as I said earlier, we are uniquely positioned to respond to new opportunities as economic conditions change.

轉向消費需求。如您所知，我們的產品在 95% 的美國家庭中使用，我們從大流行引發的習慣改變中受益。我們一直在應對這些習慣上的變化。正如我之前所說，隨著經濟條件的變化，我們具有獨特的優勢來應對新的機遇。

We rely on consumer market research, which allows us to better understand who is driving our categories and their needs. We stepped up these capabilities during the pandemic and made a number of discoveries. For example, an increased portion of men and younger consumers are more active in the kitchen and home than they were prior to the pandemic. That's a major opportunity in any economic environment.

我們依靠消費者市場研究，這使我們能夠更好地了解誰在推動我們的品類及其需求。我們在大流行期間加強了這些能力，並取得了一些發現。例如，與大流行之前相比，越來越多的男性和年輕消費者在廚房和家中更加活躍。在任何經濟環境中，這都是一個重大機遇。

And here are a few examples of how we're responding to it in this environment. In foil, as I said, we're stepping up promotions, allowing us to hit lower retail price points and increased purchase frequency. We're also increasing features and displays to drive usage and targeting advertising to reach younger consumers.

以下是我們在這種環境中如何應對它的一些示例。正如我所說，在箔紙方面，我們正在加大促銷力度，使我們能夠達到更低的零售價格點並提高購買頻率。我們還增加了功能和顯示，以推動使用和定位廣告以接觸年輕消費者。

In Waste & Storage, we're seeing strong back-to-school demand in branded and private label products and driving the Hefty brand through innovation, larger pack sizes, distribution gains and additional advertising.

在廢物和存儲領域，我們看到品牌和自有品牌產品的返校需求強勁，並通過創新、更大的包裝尺寸、分銷收益和額外的廣告來推動 Hefty 品牌。

And in disposable tableware, we're driving party cups with particular emphasis on the club channel. The third driver of our growth is innovation. Our standout innovations continue to be Hefty Fabuloso and Hefty ECOSAVE, each of which continues to demonstrate high velocity while also gaining distribution.

在一次性餐具方面，我們正在推動派對杯，特別強調俱樂部渠道。我們增長的第三個驅動力是創新。我們的傑出創新仍然是 Hefty Fabuloso 和 Hefty ECOSAVE，每一個都繼續展示高速度，同時也獲得了分佈。

Other notable contributors in the quarter and year-to-date include new Hefty Fabuloso 4 and 8 gallon waste bags for use in additional rooms of the house, and private label waste bags with odor control. Hefty Fabuloso and Hefty ECOSAVE are delivering as major platforms for innovation, and we plan to expand them. And in terms of new innovation, we just introduced Hefty Compostable Printed Paper plates, Reynolds Kitchen Compostable Wax Paper. And other Reynolds innovations are in the pipeline, and we plan to introduce a wide range of branded and private label products, offering sustainable solutions that are wins for consumers, retailers and RCP alike.

本季度和年初至今的其他顯著貢獻者包括用於房屋其他房間的新型 Hefty Fabuloso 4 和 8 加侖垃圾袋，以及具有氣味控制功能的自有品牌垃圾袋。 Hefty Fabuloso 和 Hefty ECOSAVE 是主要的創新平台，我們計劃擴展它們。而在創新方面，我們剛剛推出了 Hefty Compostable Printed Paper Plate，Reynolds Kitchen Compostable Wax Paper。雷諾的其他創新正在醞釀之中，我們計劃推出範圍廣泛的品牌和自有品牌產品，為消費者、零售商和 RCP 等提供可持續的解決方案。

Our fourth driver is manufacturing and supply chain capabilities. Staffing and supply chain conditions continue to be challenging, but they are stabilizing and much improved versus late 2020 and 2021 levels. Before I pass the call to Michael, I'd like to leave you with the following. We're well positioned for changing economic conditions, and we're responding with promotions, pack sizes, advertising and other pieces of the marketing mix to meet our consumers' increased emphasis on affordability.

我們的第四個驅動力是製造和供應鏈能力。人員配備和供應鏈條件仍然充滿挑戰，但與 2020 年末和 2021 年的水平相比，它們正在趨於穩定並有很大改善。在我把電話轉給邁克爾之前，我想給你以下幾點。我們為不斷變化的經濟狀況做好了準備，我們正在通過促銷、包裝尺寸、廣告和其他營銷組合來應對，以滿足消費者對可負擔性的日益重視。

The gap between our pricing and material, manufacturing and logistics cost increases is nearly closed, and we are in course for margin expansion and earnings growth in the fourth quarter in 2023. This means not only a return to earnings growth, but also increased flexibility to invest in our categories and drive future innovation and consumption. We are executing with excellence and our mission to simplify daily life so consumers can enjoy what matters most.

我們的定價與材料、製造和物流成本增加之間的差距已接近縮小，我們將在 2023 年第四季度實現利潤率擴張和盈利增長。這不僅意味著盈利增長的回歸，而且還增加了靈活性投資我們的品類並推動未來的創新和消費。我們以卓越的態度執行我們的使命，即簡化日常生活，讓消費者可以享受最重要的事情。

I'm extremely proud of the RCP team as we navigate through these dynamic times. We are well positioned to realize the benefits of the actions we've taken over the last 2 years. With that, over to you, Michael.

在我們度過這些充滿活力的時代時，我為 RCP 團隊感到非常自豪。我們已做好充分準備，可以實現過去 2 年採取的行動所帶來的好處。有了這個，交給你，邁克爾。

Thanks, Lance, and good morning, everyone. I'll briefly review our second quarter results, then I'll turn to our guide and why we are well positioned for margin expansion in the fourth quarter and 2023.

謝謝，蘭斯，大家早上好。我將簡要回顧我們的第二季度業績，然後我將轉向我們的指南，以及為什麼我們在第四季度和 2023 年為利潤率擴張做好準備。

Net revenues in the second quarter were $917 million, an increase of 5% over second quarter net revenues of $873 million in 2021, primarily driven by price increases and partially offset by a decline in volume. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $118 million, down 20% versus last year's second quarter of $148 million, driven by lower volume, primarily due to declines in foil consumption as well as higher materials, manufacturing, logistics and advertising costs.

第二季度淨收入為 9.17 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度淨收入 8.73 億美元增長 5%，主要受價格上漲驅動，部分被銷量下降所抵消。第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.18 億美元，比去年第二季度的 1.48 億美元下降 20%，主要是由於鋁箔消費量下降以及材料、製造、物流和廣告成本上升導致銷量下降。

Significant price increases across our entire portfolio offset all material cost increases and a large portion of increases in manufacturing and logistics costs. We expect to close the remaining gap between price and materials, manufacturing and logistic cost increases in the third quarter, and to see an additional margin benefit in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated progressive easing and aluminum cost and implementation of additional pricing.

我們整個產品組合的顯著價格上漲抵消了所有材料成本的增加以及製造和物流成本的大部分增加。我們預計第三季度價格與材料、製造和物流成本增加之間的剩餘差距將縮小，並在預期的逐步寬鬆和鋁成本以及實施額外定價的推動下，在第四季度看到額外的利潤率收益。

Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.26. Turning to our segment performance. Details are in our press release and 10-Q, so let me give you the highlights. The 5% increase in net revenues was driven by low- to mid-teen increases in pricing in each of our business segments, which was partially offset by a [9%] volume decline driven by Reynolds Cooking & Baking, and to a lesser extent, declines in 2 other segments.

本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.26 美元。轉向我們的細分市場表現。詳細信息在我們的新聞稿和 10-Q 中，所以讓我給您重點介紹。淨收入增長 5% 是由於我們每個業務部門定價的中低增長推動的，這部分被 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 推動的 [9%] 銷量下降所抵消，並且在較小程度上, 其他 2 個部分下降。

Our overall price increase of 14% is consistent with the year-to-date increase of 13% and reflects our effectiveness in recovering all material cost increases and a large portion of increases in our manufacturing and logistics costs in the second quarter.

我們 14% 的整體價格上漲與年初至今 13% 的漲幅一致，反映了我們在第二季度收回所有材料成本增加以及製造和物流成本增加的大部分方面的有效性。

As you know, in May, we expected a mid to high single-digit volume decline in the second quarter. And as Lance reviewed, slowing foil consumption was a substantial headwind in the quarter. The 19% decline in Reynolds Cooking & Baking volume also reflected a decline in low-margin reroll volume and an additional headwind from timing of retailer replenishment early in the quarter, whereas volume declined 3% in Hefty Waste & Storage driven by lower waste and food bag usage as consumers are spending less time in their homes. And as Lance mentioned, branded waste bag volume and dollar shares are up in the first half.

如您所知，5 月份，我們預計第二季度的銷量將出現中高個位數下降。正如蘭斯所評論的那樣，鋁箔消費放緩是本季度的一大不利因素。 Reynolds Cooking & Baking 的銷量下降 19%，這也反映了低利潤的再卷銷量下降，以及本季度初零售商補貨時間帶來的額外不利因素，而由於垃圾和食品減少，Hefty Waste & Storage 的銷量下降了 3%袋子的使用，因為消費者在家中花費的時間更少。正如蘭斯所說，品牌垃圾袋數量和美元份額在上半年都有所上升。

Volume was flat in Hefty Tableware as gains for Hefty disposable plates and private label party costs were offset by declines in other disposable tableware. And Presto Products volume declined 7%, driven by lower waste and food bag usage.

Hefty 餐具的銷量持平，因為 Hefty 一次性盤子和自有品牌派對成本的增長被其他一次性餐具的下降所抵消。由於廢物和食品袋使用量減少，Presto Products 的銷量下降了 7%。

Turning to our outlook. For the third quarter of fiscal '22, we expect net revenues to grow 8% to 12% on $905 million in prior year, driven by price increases and a low to mid-single-digit volume decline. Adjusted EBITDA of $110 million to $120 million. And adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.21 to $0.25 per share.

轉向我們的前景。對於 22 財年第三季度，我們預計淨收入將在去年 9.05 億美元的基礎上增長 8% 至 12%，這主要是由於價格上漲和中低個位數的銷量下降。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.1 億美元至 1.2 億美元。調整後的每股收益在 0.21 美元至 0.25 美元之間。

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, we expect net revenues to grow 9% to 17% on $1.021 billion in the prior year, driven by price increases and flat to slightly down volume. Adjusted EBITDA of $220 million to $240 million and an adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.59 to $0.66 per share.

對於 2022 財年第四季度，我們預計淨收入將在上一年的 10.21 億美元的基礎上增長 9% 至 17%，這主要受價格上漲和銷量持平或略有下降的推動。調整後 EBITDA 為 2.2 億美元至 2.4 億美元，調整後每股收益在 0.59 美元至 0.66 美元之間。

For the fiscal year 2022, we now expect net revenues to be up 8% to 11% on $3.556 billion in 2021, driven by price increases and a mid-single-digit volume decline, including the impact from timing of retailer inventory replenishment, primarily in the first quarter of this year.

對於 2022 財年，我們現在預計 2021 年的淨收入將在 35.56 億美元的基礎上增長 8% 至 11%，這主要是由於價格上漲和中個位數的銷量下降，包括零售商補貨時間的影響，主要是今年第一季度。

Adjusted EBITDA of $560 million to $590 million, adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.32 to $1.43 per share, and net debt to be $1.9 billion to $2 billion at December 31, 2022.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，調整後 EBITDA 為 5.6 億美元至 5.9 億美元，調整後每股收益在 1.32 美元至 1.43 美元之間，淨債務為 19 億美元至 20 億美元。

And as a reminder, our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. As Lance said, elasticities have picked up, particularly in our foil business. And so those assumptions are reflected in our guide. We continue to closely monitor elasticities and how they may change in other categories given the inflationary environment.

提醒一下，我們的資本配置優先事項沒有改變。正如蘭斯所說，彈性已經回升，特別是在我們的箔業務中。因此，這些假設反映在我們的指南中。鑑於通脹環境，我們將繼續密切關注彈性以及它們在其他類別中的變化。

In terms of other key assumptions, we assume rates for key commodities are stable to easing by comparison to end of July levels and estimate incremental cost pressures of approximately $525 million for the year, which is a $75 million increase by comparison to our expectations we reported in the first quarter results.

在其他關鍵假設方面，我們假設與 7 月底的水平相比，主要商品的費率穩定至下降，並估計今年的增量成本壓力約為 5.25 億美元，與我們報告的預期相比增加了 7500 萬美元在第一季度業績。

We estimate depreciation and amortization of $120 million for the year, interest expense of $70 million and an effective tax rate of 25%, and a capital spending of $135 million to $145 million, down from our previous estimate of $150 million to $170 million, driven by extensions and timing of select capacity and other investments.

我們估計今年的折舊和攤銷為 1.2 億美元，利息支出為 7,000 萬美元，有效稅率為 25%，資本支出為 1.35 億美元至 1.45 億美元，低於我們之前估計的 1.5 億美元至 1.7 億美元，驅動通過選擇產能和其他投資的擴展和時間安排。

In terms of phasing, our incremental pricing and cost comparisons have us positioned for substantial margin expansion that we expect in the fourth quarter. As I just reviewed, first half results reflected narrowing of the gap between pricing and cost increases. We expect that trend to continue in the third quarter and for our implemented pricing to fully offset increases in material manufacturing and logistics costs.

在分階段方面，我們的增量定價和成本比較使我們為第四季度預期的大幅利潤率擴張做好了準備。正如我剛剛回顧的那樣，上半年業績反映了定價和成本增加之間的差距縮小。我們預計這一趨勢將在第三季度繼續，我們實施的定價將完全抵消材料製造和物流成本的增加。

We also expect SG&A to be up in the third quarter versus prior year due to increases in variable compensation and advertising costs. As we enter the fourth quarter, we expect to see progressive easing of aluminum costs driven by existing inventory positions and fourth quarter gross margin is expected to also benefit from the implementation of recently announced pricing.

由於可變薪酬和廣告成本的增加，我們還預計第三季度的 SG&A 將比去年同期增加。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們預計在現有庫存狀況的推動下鋁成本將逐步下降，預計第四季度毛利率也將受益於最近宣布的定價的實施。

Now before I hand the call back over to Mark and your questions, I want to leave you with a few thoughts on recovery of pre-pandemic profitability. We anticipate achieving pre-pandemic levels of profitability in 2023. We estimate this to be in the mid-$900 millions when adjusting to current volume levels compared to pre-pandemic gross profit of $880 million.

現在，在我將電話轉回給馬克和你的問題之前，我想給你一些關於恢復大流行前盈利能力的想法。我們預計在 2023 年實現大流行前的盈利水平。與大流行前的 8.8 億美元毛利潤相比，我們估計在調整到當前的銷量水平時，這將在 9 億美元左右。

We expect closing of the gap between price and cost increases, as I discussed when reviewing the guide, to the be a major catalyst. In addition, as Lance mentioned, the cumulative value of price increases is significant. Together with our category leadership positions and the anticipated easing of commodity costs, we expect this will allow us to increase category investment while also gaining additional margin. And we are expanding Reyvolution cost savings based on our comprehensive business review, identifying and targeting additional procurement, manufacturing and logistic savings, giving us added scope for investment in margin growth. In closing, we continue to manage through a very challenging environment. I'm encouraged about the actions we have taken as well as the implications for the future results. And with that, I'll hand the call back over to you, Mark.

正如我在審查指南時所討論的那樣，我們預計縮小價格和成本增長之間的差距將成為主要催化劑。此外，正如蘭斯所說，價格上漲的累積價值是顯著的。再加上我們的品類領導地位和商品成本的預期下降，我們預計這將使我們能夠增加品類投資，同時獲得額外的利潤。我們正在根據我們的全面業務審查擴大 Reyvolution 成本節約，確定並瞄準額外的採購、製造和物流節約，為我們在利潤增長方面提供更多投資空間。最後，我們繼續在一個非常具有挑戰性的環境中進行管理。我對我們所採取的行動以及對未來結果的影響感到鼓舞。有了這個，我會把電話交給你，馬克。

Thanks, Michael. As I turn it over to the operator for your questions, I'd like to remind you that we ask that you ask 1 question and a follow-up, and then rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator?

謝謝，邁克爾。當我把它交給接線員詢問您的問題時，我想提醒您，我們要求您提出 1 個問題和一個後續問題，如果您有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from [Kaumil Gajrawala] with Credit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 [Kaumil Gajrawala]。

This is Theo Brito for Kaumil. So you're now guiding to volumes to be down mid-single digits this year. Can you maybe just remind us what was your expectations before? And more importantly, what gives you confidence in the new volume outlook, please?

這是 Kaumil 的 Theo Brito。因此，您現在正在指導今年的交易量下降中個位數。你能不能提醒我們你之前的期望是什麼？更重要的是，請問是什麼讓您對新的銷量前景充滿信心？

So the answer to the first question was down low single digits. And what gives us confidence in our new volume guide is, this is a very dynamic environment. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, elasticities have picked up in much of our business, particularly foil.

所以第一個問題的答案是低個位數。讓我們對我們的新卷指南充滿信心的是，這是一個非常動態的環境。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們的大部分業務，特別是箔紙，彈性都在增加。

But as I also said in our remarks, our category advisers are actively addressing changing consumer needs with our retail partners, and we're seeing an encouraging response to the corrective actions in the foil category. Specifically, we have maintained all points of distribution that have historical share position.

但正如我在講話中所說，我們的品類顧問正在與我們的零售合作夥伴積極解決不斷變化的消費者需求，我們看到對箔品品類的糾正措施的反應令人鼓舞。具體來說，我們保留了所有具有歷史份額的分銷點。

Our category declines have begun moderating, and we're gaining volume share as we picked up these promotions. The EQ volume for 12 weeks ending June 26, with which -- for Q2, essentially, the category was down 12.2% and Reynolds Wrap was down 15.6%.

我們的類別下降已經開始緩和，隨著我們獲得這些促銷活動，我們正在獲得銷量份額。截至 6 月 26 日的 12 週的 EQ 交易量，其中——對於第二季度，基本上，該類別下降了 12.2%，Reynolds Wrap 下降了 15.6%。

The EQ volume for the 4 weeks ending July 31, the category is down 5.6% and Reynolds Wrap down 4.4%. We plan to continue increasing foil promotions, features and displays through year-end, including a substantial pickup in October to take advantage of lower foil costs and holiday-related demand. And after many months lagging Reynolds Wrap price increases, we've seen private label has begun taking prices up.

截至 7 月 31 日的 4 週 EQ 成交量下降 5.6%，Reynolds Wrap 下降 4.4%。我們計劃在年底前繼續增加鋁箔促銷、功能和展示，包括在 10 月份大幅提貨，以利用較低的鋁箔成本和與假期相關的需求。在 Reynolds Wrap 價格上漲滯後數月之後，我們已經看到自有品牌開始漲價。

And some of the other drivers in our other 3 business units, we expect our performance in the club channel, which is strong, to continue, and that's particularly important for Tableware. Hefty Fabuloso continues to gain momentum with new distribution and introduction of multiple new pack sizes. We are stepping up advertising across our portfolio of Hefty Waste & Storage products and evaluating increases in promotions.

以及我們其他 3 個業務部門的其他一些驅動因素，我們預計我們在俱樂部渠道的表現將繼續強勁，這對餐具來說尤其重要。 Hefty Fabuloso 繼續通過新的分銷和推出多種新包裝尺寸獲得動力。我們正在加大我們的大量廢物和存儲產品組合的廣告力度，並評估促銷活動的增加。

And we're also introducing new low-price-point pack sizes and additional value-pack sizes. The changes in consumer consumption in our categories has been more dynamic than we've seen historically, and we're continuing to watch it very closely and we will continue to respond with corrective measures.

我們還推出了新的低價包裝尺寸和額外的超值包裝尺寸。我們類別中消費者消費的變化比我們以往看到的更加動態，我們將繼續密切關注它，我們將繼續採取糾正措施。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I still just wanted to go back to the reason for the lowered EBITDA and earnings outlook for the year because the conversation on -- yes, the volume declines in foil are worse, but we talked about this before and that you would turn the promotion on. I know you called out the higher cost basket.

我仍然只是想回到降低 EBITDA 和今年盈利前景的原因，因為談話開始了——是的，箔紙的銷量下降更糟，但我們之前討論過這個問題，你會開啟促銷活動.我知道你調出了更高成本的籃子。

I'm just curious the sources of that big change because it just feels like 3Q is a little bit of a shock. And I frankly thought there was maybe a little bit more visibility inherent in the business model. So I'm curious mostly about 3Q.

我只是好奇這種大變化的來源，因為感覺 3Q 有點令人震驚。坦率地說，我認為商業模式中可能存在更多的可見性。所以我主要對3Q感到好奇。

Yes. So the main driver of our guide down is lower volume expectations as we are more in a more inflationary environment and therefore, elasticities have gone up. We estimate approximately 3 points less volume than we previously expected. Those 3 points represent about $40 million of loss contribution margin. That's all of the $40 million decline in [estimated] EBITDA.

是的。因此，我們向下指引的主要驅動因素是較低的交易量預期，因為我們處於更加通脹的環境中，因此彈性上升。我們估計成交量比我們之前預期的少大約 3 個百分點。這 3 個點代表了大約 4000 萬美元的損失貢獻邊際。這就是 [估計] EBITDA 下降 4000 萬美元的全部。

And when you look at the lower end of our guide of [$615 million] and the midpoint of our current guide of [$575 million]. So in terms of the 3 key -- the third quarter EBITDA -- in terms of volume, as Lance said, we're in a dynamic environment. And the elasticities have picked up in all of our categories, particularly in foil. But as we look at the commodity curve, the value of the pricing we bought -- have implemented, and we are expecting a significant increase in earnings in Q4 relative to Q3 as a result.

當您查看我們指南的下限 [6.15 億美元] 和我們當前指南的中點 [5.75 億美元] 時。因此，就第三季度的 EBITDA 而言，正如 Lance 所說，就數量而言，我們處於一個動態的環境中。我們所有類別的彈性都增加了，尤其是鋁箔。但當我們查看商品曲線時，我們購買的定價價值已經實施，因此我們預計第四季度的收益將比第三季度顯著增加。

Specific to Q3, in aggregate, the year-over-year benefit of pricing and Reyvolution is fully neutralized cost increases year-over-year with the other segments compensating for Reynolds business, where we are still working through some of the higher cost aluminum.

具體到第三季度，總體而言，定價和 Reyvolution 的同比收益完全抵消了同比成本增長，而其他部門則補償了雷諾業務，我們仍在努力解決一些成本較高的鋁。

So that has to be worked through in the subsequent quarters. So this leaves our volume and SG&A. We expect volume declines in low -- in the range of low to mid-single digits, which is a headwind, but there are some offsetting margin benefits from improved innovation.

因此，必須在隨後的幾個季度中解決這個問題。所以這留下了我們的數量和 SG&A。我們預計銷量將在低位到中個位數範圍內下降，這是一個不利因素，但改進創新會帶來一些抵消利潤的好處。

As an example, Hefty waste bags, Fabuloso, we got to also have the Reynolds Kitchens have performed very well, and we're expecting the same moving forward. So year-on-year, the decline really boils down to higher SG&A, with most of our total year-over-year increases falling in the back half. The key drivers are increased advertising and market research and higher compensation costs, some of which is timing related.

例如，Hefty 垃圾袋，Fabuloso，我們還必須讓 Reynolds Kitchens 表現得非常好，我們期待著同樣的進步。因此，同比下降實際上歸結為更高的 SG&A，我們的大部分同比增長都在後半部分。主要驅動因素是廣告和市場研究的增加以及更高的補償成本，其中一些與時間相關。

Okay. So just to step back for a sec, volumes in Foil or Cooking & Baking being worse than expected in 2Q created a delay in the time line for what you previously expected for moving through some of that higher cost inventory through the P&L.? So that's...

好的。因此，退一步說一下，第二季度鋁箔或烹飪和烘焙的銷量比預期的要差，這導致了您之前預期的通過損益表通過一些較高成本庫存的時間線的延遲。？所以那是...

You got it.

你說對了。

Okay. Okay. And then the SG&A piece that you were saying, Michael, I'm sorry, I was still -- like, my brain was spinning on the inventory piece. So there's also some higher SG&A that you built in because you're investing more than you'd maybe previously or planned? Or is that already happening?

好的。好的。然後是你所說的 SG&A 部分，邁克爾，對不起，我仍然 - 就像，我的大腦在庫存部分上旋轉。因此，您還建立了一些更高的 SG&A，因為您的投資比以前或計劃的要多？或者這已經發生了？

Yes...

是的...

Yes. Okay. Okay. Great. And then for 4Q, then you get the margin expansion because you're -- the timing is back to as planned in terms of moving to that lower cost inventory and to the incremental pricing?

是的。好的。好的。偉大的。然後對於第 4 季度，您會獲得利潤增長，因為您 - 在轉向低成本庫存和增量定價方面，時間回到了原計劃？

So let me go back to the SG&A point. The year-over-year decline was down to higher SG&A with most of that total year-over-year increase falling in the back half, right? The key drivers are increased advertising and market research and higher compensation costs.

所以讓我回到 SG&A 點。同比下降的原因是 SG&A 較高，其中大部分同比增長都在後半段，對吧？主要驅動因素是廣告和市場研究的增加以及更高的補償成本。

Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Great. Can you talk a little bit about the competitive environment for trash bags? What you see your competition doing, how the promotional feel looks like and what you need to do to kind of get that business on a better path?

偉大的。您能談談垃圾袋的競爭環境嗎？您看到您的競爭對手在做什麼，促銷感覺如何，以及您需要做些什麼才能讓該業務走上更好的道路？

Yes, Robert, thank you for the question. We have seen a much more constructive environment in the competitive dynamics in the waste bag category. As you heard in my prepared remarks, we are announcing another price increase on Hefty waste bags. So when that is completed, we will be recovering almost all of our costs, including labor and logistics as well as resin, assuming the resin curve holds in that category.

是的，羅伯特，謝謝你的提問。我們在垃圾袋類別的競爭動態中看到了更具建設性的環境。正如你在我準備好的講話中所聽到的，我們宣布重磅垃圾袋再次漲價。因此，一旦完成，我們將收回幾乎所有成本，包括勞動力和物流以及樹脂，假設樹脂曲線屬於該類別。

So we've seen that a very much more positive environment as it relates to the pricing dynamics across the category, and it's going to come down to how the consumer consumption plays out as we go forward.

因此，我們已經看到一個非常積極的環境，因為它與整個類別的定價動態有關，這將歸結為消費者消費在我們前進的過程中的表現。

How do you feel about your share trends?

您如何看待您的股票趨勢？

The share trends in the first half were positive in the last 4 weeks, it's been pretty flat.

上半年的股價趨勢在過去 4 週內是積極的，非常平穩。

Okay. And going over on the aluminum foil side, how do you see that category playing out in terms of consumer choices between private label and branded. And do you see a path for consumers going back more heavily to branded?

好的。在鋁箔方面，您如何看待該類別在消費者在自有品牌和品牌之間的選擇方面發揮作用。您是否看到了消費者更多地回歸品牌的道路？

Yes. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have seen pricing of private label increasing. And so to put specific numbers on it, the last 12 weeks, private label increased 2.5 share points, but in the last 4 weeks, it's been flat.

是的。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，我們已經看到自有品牌的定價在上漲。因此，具體數字來看，過去 12 週，自有品牌增加了 2.5 個份額點，但在過去 4 週內，它一直持平。

So when we put these promotions in place, which has gotten our price points lower and as we've seen private label prices increasing, we've seen that the price gaps narrow, and we've seen that shift back to a more stable position between brand and private label in the category.

因此，當我們實施這些促銷活動時，這降低了我們的價格點，並且隨著我們看到自有品牌價格上漲，我們已經看到價格差距縮小，並且我們已經看到這種轉變回到了更穩定的位置在類別中的品牌和自有品牌之間。

Okay. And then if I can just sneak 1 more in. Given this dynamic environment, right, which you say that the -- it's -- you've never seen or that it's at least more dynamic than in the past, a lot of elasticity, is your -- are your conversations with the retailers different in the past, the retailers looking at the category in any way more differently than they had in the past?

好的。然後，如果我可以再偷偷摸摸 1 次。鑑於這種動態環境，對，你說 - 它是 - 你從未見過，或者它至少比過去更有活力，有很大的彈性，您與過去的零售商的對話是否有所不同，零售商以任何方式看待該類別的方式與過去不同？

I think what we're looking at with the retailers is making sure that we get the price points correct, right? And what happened in foil -- and you see a category that declined 15 points in a quarter. That's historically something we've never seen, a double-digit decline in the category. So our discussions with them has been about how do we get the price points right in this inflationary environment.

我認為我們正在與零售商一起尋找的是確保我們獲得正確的價格點，對吧？而在花劍比賽中發生了什麼——你會看到一個季度下降了 15 分的類別。這是歷史上我們從未見過的，該類別出現兩位數的下降。因此，我們與他們的討論一直是關於我們如何在這種通脹環境下獲得正確的價格點。

Reynolds Wrap 75 foot pre-pandemic traded below $4 on a unit basis, a 75 square foot flagship product. As we've taken pricing to compensate for very high cost of aluminum, it went up to almost $2 a pound. The price points went up above $5. So we're not promoting well below that, looking to get below $5 and into the mid-4s as we get into Q4. And that will be driven by the investments we will be able to make with lower aluminum costs as we go through that inventory. But we'll do that on a sequential basis to ensure that we also have the opportunity to ensure our margins stay strong.

Reynolds Wrap 75 英尺大流行前的單價低於 4 美元，是一款 75 平方英尺的旗艦產品。由於我們已經採取定價來補償非常高的鋁成本，它漲到了每磅近 2 美元。價格點升至 5 美元以上。因此，我們不會在低於此水平的情況下進行促銷，希望在進入第四季度時低於 5 美元並進入 4 年代中期。這將受到我們在處理庫存時能夠以更低的鋁成本進行的投資的推動。但我們將按順序進行，以確保我們也有機會確保我們的利潤率保持強勁。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So Lance, I wanted to go back to your comments on private label. Has your mix moved back to that portion of the business and your price in private label has improved to your point about pricing moving up? Do you see that as an improvement on a sequential basis for your margin. And then a follow-up on the Cooking & Baking, given the mid-teen -- I believe you said mid-teen consumption decline in the quarter, do you have a sense that, obviously, inventory levels in retail build up? And then if you see that, what is baked in, in your guidance into the fourth quarter, you could say, in October, you're going to be pushing more pricing and promo?

所以蘭斯，我想回到你對自有品牌的評論。您的組合是否已經回到業務的那一部分，並且您的自有品牌價格已經提高到您認為價格上漲的程度？您是否認為這是對您的保證金的連續改進。然後是關於烹飪和烘焙的後續行動，考慮到青少年——我相信你說本季度青少年消費下降，你是否感覺到零售業的庫存水平明顯增加？然後，如果您看到這一點，在您對第四季度的指導中，您可以說，在 10 月份，您將推動更多的定價和促銷活動？

And if you can inform us also in terms of pantry destocking, if you see folks, especially cost where you have a big presentation there or a big pack if things have improved sequentially.

如果您還可以在食品儲藏室去庫存方面通知我們，如果您看到人們，尤其是在您在那裡進行大型演示或大包裝的情況下，如果情況有所改善的話。

Well, there's 3 questions in there. I want to make sure I understood the first one, which was about private label shift. You're speaking about foil? Are you looking at all of our categories and are you asking about are we margining up our private label? I didn't quite understand what you wanted -- the question about the private label.

嗯，裡面有3個問題。我想確保我理解第一個，這是關於自有品牌轉變的。你說的是貼膜？您是否正在查看我們所有的類別，您是否在詢問我們是否在提高自有品牌的利潤？我不太明白你想要什麼——關於自有品牌的問題。

Yes. Sorry, let me parse out. I think -- if you could focus on foil and trash bags, I guess those are the most important for us. If you can -- because I did see the commentary about Presto not performing that well. So I guess, probably what you're seeing is that Presto brands have taken a little bit of share at that point, as I mentioned. But just to check on the price gap commentary that you gave just before.

是的。對不起，讓我分析一下。我想——如果你可以專注於鋁箔袋和垃圾袋，我想這些對我們來說是最重要的。如果可以的話——因為我確實看到關於 Presto 表現不佳的評論。所以我想，正如我所提到的，您可能看到的是 Presto 品牌在那時已經佔據了一點份額。但只是為了檢查您之前給出的價格差距評論。

So on foil, yes, we did see a shift to private label in the second quarter as we had pricing that was significantly moving faster up than private label, like, I quoted last 12 weeks, it was up 2.5 points in private label share versus us. But in the last 4, it's flat. So as we put the promotions in place and got below the $5 price points and across all of our sizes, we have been able to, at this point, see that flattening and no longer shifting to private label. In waste bags, it's actually the other direction.

所以在箔紙上，是的，我們確實在第二季度看到了向自有品牌的轉變，因為我們的定價明顯快於自有品牌，就像我在過去 12 週引用的那樣，自有品牌份額與自有品牌相比上漲了 2.5 個百分點我們。但是在最後4個中，它是平的。因此，當我們將促銷活動落實到位並低於 5 美元的價格點以及我們所有的尺寸時，我們已經能夠在這一點上看到這種扁平化並且不再轉向自有品牌。在垃圾袋中，實際上是另一個方向。

If you look at the last 12 weeks, branded share and waste bags has improved 1 point and in the last 4 is 0.4. So there's not been a shift in the waste bags to private label in our current outlook or in the current history, I should say. So does that get to your question on the private label shifts?

如果您查看過去 12 週，品牌份額和垃圾袋提高了 1 點，而在過去 4 周中為 0.4。因此，我應該說，在我們當前的前景或當前的歷史中，垃圾袋並沒有轉變為自有品牌。那麼這是否解決了您對自有品牌轉變的問題？

Yes, Lance. The one thing on the private label share that you mentioned on aluminum foil, did you capture that? Because you obviously produce around 40% of your sales in private label. Did that shift more favorable to you? Or it's mostly your competitors?

是的，蘭斯。你在鋁箔紙上提到的自有品牌份額上的一件事，你抓住了嗎？因為您顯然以自有品牌生產了大約 40% 的銷售額。這種轉變對你更有利嗎？還是主要是你的競爭對手？

I see. Okay. So in foil, that is one of the categories that we don't have a very strong position in private label. We've got some capacity constraints, and we have chosen to really focus on the brand in that particular category. So -- no, we did not pick that up.

我懂了。好的。所以在箔紙中，這是我們在自有品牌中沒有很強地位的類別之一。我們有一些產能限制，我們選擇真正專注於該特定類別的品牌。所以 - 不，我們沒有選擇它。

Okay. And then on the -- that's fair. And then on the Cooking & Baking inventory levels, both at retail and pantry. I know you had prepared us that this was an issue back in the first quarter. Just wondering how that evolves into the second, as you exited the quarter, into the third quarter.

好的。然後 - 這是公平的。然後是零售和食品儲藏室的烹飪和烘焙庫存水平。我知道你已經讓我們做好了準備，這是第一季度的一個問題。只是想知道當您退出本季度時，這將如何演變為第二季度，進入第三季度。

Yes. Well, we continue to monitor our retailers' inventories through direct access to a number of inventory tracking tools. And we did see the retail deload of foil and other products as we anticipated in Q2. But for the last 2 months, we've been shipping in line with consumer demand. We do know that retailers are, of course, continue to evaluate their own inventory levels, and we're watching that closely.

是的。好吧，我們繼續通過直接訪問許多庫存跟踪工具來監控零售商的庫存。正如我們在第二季度所預期的那樣，我們確實看到了鋁箔和其他產品的零售量下降。但在過去的兩個月裡，我們一直在按照消費者的需求發貨。我們確實知道零售商當然會繼續評估他們自己的庫存水平，我們正在密切關注這一點。

Right. But then would you say you're shipping according to demand, the demand is still down?

正確的。但是你會說你是按需求發貨，需求仍然下降嗎？

Yes. But it's moderating, as I mentioned, it's a 4%, right? So it's significantly different than it was in Q2. And we have...

是的。但它正在緩和，正如我所提到的，它是 4%，對吧？所以它與第二季度有很大不同。而且我們有...

Our next question is from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

Yes. So I want to maybe come on some of the previous questions in a slightly different way. So back to your commentary on achieving pre-pandemic profit levels next year. I guess maybe to think about it, how should we model or view the retention of pricing if inputs come down either in line with expectations or more?

是的。所以我想以稍微不同的方式來回答前面的一些問題。所以回到你對明年實現大流行前利潤水平的評論。我想也許可以考慮一下，如果輸入符合預期或更多，我們應該如何建模或查看定價的保留？

And relative to what you all have said from a historical standpoint, which I think was maybe just under 40% retention of price if you go back to '18, '19. How does that play out going forward? And sort of related to that, if I'm doing the math, right, for your guidance, pricing still has to pretty meaningfully accelerated on a 2-year basis over the balance of the year. So how does that factor in and could potentially elasticity, which is worsening, get worse even than expectations?

從歷史的角度來看，相對於你們所說的，我認為如果你回到 18 和 19 年，價格保留率可能不到 40%。這將如何發展？與此相關，如果我在做數學計算，對了，在您的指導下，定價仍然必須在 2 年的基礎上在今年餘下的時間裡進行相當有意義的加速。那麼，這個因素是如何影響並可能導致正在惡化的彈性變得比預期更糟的呢？

Well, I'll answer the first part of the question, and I'll let Michael explain a little bit more about 2023 and our outlook for 2023. But we are -- we have historically been able to maintain and improve our margins and keep pricing as commodity costs go down, and we believe that we will be able to do that in 2023 and in Q4. In total, when you look at the price increases that we've taken over a 2-year period of time, it's almost $1 billion.

好吧，我將回答問題的第一部分，然後讓邁克爾再解釋一下 2023 年和我們對 2023 年的展望。但我們 - 從歷史上看，我們一直能夠保持和提高我們的利潤率並保持隨著商品成本下降定價，我們相信我們將能夠在 2023 年和第四季度做到這一點。總體而言，當您查看我們在 2 年期間所採取的價格上漲時，幾乎是 10 億美元。

So there's a lot of opportunity to be able to margin up within that $1 billion and at the same time, invest in our categories to maximize promotions and advertising. And Mike, do you want to talk about 2023?

因此，有很多機會可以在這 10 億美元內賺取利潤，同時投資於我們的類別，以最大限度地提高促銷和廣告效果。邁克，你想談談 2023 年嗎？

Yes. And specifically around the gross profit. So we anticipate achieving pre-pandemic levels of profitability in 2023. We estimate this to be around in the mid-$900 millions when adjusting to our current volume levels compared to [pre-pandemic] gross profit of about $880 million. We expect closing the gap between pricing and cost increases. And as I discussed in reviewing the guide to be a major catalyst.

是的。特別是圍繞毛利潤。因此，我們預計在 2023 年實現大流行前的盈利水平。與 [大流行前的] 毛利潤約 8.8 億美元相比，調整到我們目前的銷量水平時，我們估計這將在 9 億美元左右。我們預計縮小定價和成本增加之間的差距。正如我在審查指南時所討論的那樣，它是一個主要的催化劑。

In addition, as Lance mentioned, the cumulative level of our price increases is pretty significant. Together with category leadership positions and easing of commodity costs, we expect this will allow us to increase category investment while also gaining additional margin.

此外，正如蘭斯所說，我們價格上漲的累積水平非常顯著。加上品類領導地位和商品成本的降低，我們預計這將使我們能夠增加品類投資，同時獲得額外的利潤。

Okay. Got it. Just one other follow-up on that last point on one of the pieces -- the last point, Michael. So you said volume is still being off or, I guess, the '23 comments are contingent on volume still being up versus pre-pandemic levels. I get you all surprised at the volume degradation that we've seen in '22 and kind of the world continues to normalize. How do you think about the likelihood that you retain those incremental volumes?

好的。知道了。只是對其中一件作品的最後一點的另一個跟進——最後一點，邁克爾。所以你說成交量仍在下降，或者，我猜 23 年的評論取決於成交量仍然高於大流行前的水平。我讓你們都驚訝於我們在 22 年看到的音量下降以及世界繼續正常化。您如何看待保留這些增量卷的可能性？

Yes. So we've done some extensive studies with IRI consumption forecast production model to look at the effect of this volume, how much of it is impacted by pricing and how much of it is impacted by reopening. And in most of the categories, it's 60% elasticity and 40% reopening. In foil, it's 76% elasticity and only 24% reopening.

是的。因此，我們對 IRI 消費預測生產模型進行了一些廣泛的研究，以了解這一數量的影響，其中有多少受到定價的影響，有多少受到重新開放的影響。在大多數類別中，它是 60% 的彈性和 40% 的重新開放。在箔紙中，它的彈性為 76%，而重新打開的只有 24%。

So we believe there's been a fundamental shift in the pandemic in the use of our categories and we get the pricing right on elasticity, that volume will continue to be above pre-pandemic levels.

因此，我們相信大流行在我們類別的使用方面發生了根本性轉變，並且我們根據彈性確定了正確的定價，該數量將繼續高於大流行前的水平。

Our next question comes from Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

I'm sorry to keep kind of hammering on the same issue on foil. But I mean, on that last kind of comment of 76% of the business is elasticity or the issues of elasticity? I mean, it's hard to kind of buy into that number. I'm just trying to think fundamentally about the foil category, there's not really a substitute for the category.

我很抱歉繼續在箔紙上討論同樣的問題。但我的意思是，關於 76% 的業務的最後一種評論是彈性還是彈性問題？我的意思是，很難接受這個數字。我只是想從根本上考慮箔類別，並沒有真正的替代品類別。

I mean, if prices are high, and you're still cooking or using foil, you still need to use a cook foil and -- it doesn't seem like all of your business has gone to private label. So I'm just trying to understand how that works out, how you haven't had demand destruction? And I guess the question is, do you think you've made a mistake of pricing too far, too fast in -- versus just kind of riding out a short-term rise in aluminum costs?

我的意思是，如果價格很高，而您仍在烹飪或使用箔紙，那麼您仍然需要使用烹飪箔紙，而且 - 似乎您的所有業務都沒有進入自有品牌。所以我只是想了解它是如何運作的，你是如何沒有需求破壞的？我想問題是，你認為你是否犯了一個錯誤，定價太高、太快——而不是只是在鋁成本的短期上漲中安然無恙？

Well, on the second part of the question, aluminum more than doubled during 2022, it went up to over $2 a pound. So if you did the math on that, the earnings structure by not taking our price up would have been significant, like $75 million.

好吧，在問題的第二部分，鋁在 2022 年翻了一番還多，漲到了每磅 2 美元以上。因此，如果您對此進行數學計算，則不提高我們的價格的收益結構將非常可觀，例如 7500 萬美元。

And so we had really no choice but to follow that pricing up. It's just an unfortunate consequence of the commodity drive up that we had to do that from a pricing standpoint. What gives us confidence is both the last 4 weeks as well as back in 2018 when we crossed the price point when aluminum spiked at that point, it went above another price point. And when we got it back lower, we got the demand back.

所以我們真的別無選擇，只能跟著定價。從定價的角度來看，我們不得不這樣做只是商品上漲的一個不幸後果。給我們信心的是過去 4 週以及 2018 年，當我們越過價格點時，鋁價在那個時候飆升，它又超過了另一個價格點。當我們將其恢復到較低水平時，我們就恢復了需求。

We do know from our research that consumers are not leaving the category. They are stretching out their purchase cycle by deloading and having less use occasions. In some cases, they're buying the lower pack sizes. And in some cases, the more affluent consumers are buying larger pack sizes. And the conditions vary by consumer.

從我們的研究中我們確實知道，消費者並沒有離開這個類別。他們通過卸載和減少使用場合來延長購買週期。在某些情況下，他們會購買較小的包裝尺寸。在某些情況下，更富裕的消費者會購買更大的包裝尺寸。條件因消費者而異。

But they're not leaving the category. To your point, we've done a lot of studies on that, it's not -- there's not a real substitute there. So getting the price points back will get the purchase frequency back more normalized.

但他們並沒有離開這個類別。就您的觀點而言，我們已經對此進行了大量研究，但不是——那裡沒有真正的替代品。因此，恢復價格點將使購買頻率恢復正常。

Okay. And I guess on that same, I don't fully understand why private label has taken so long to price. I mean, you would assume they have worse purchasing power of aluminum than you do and would want to maintain their price gaps and margins as much as they could. So any color as to why they've taken so long? Has been a weak point for the -- for you?

好的。而且我想同樣，我不完全理解為什麼自有品牌花了這麼長時間才定價。我的意思是，您會假設他們的鋁購買力比您差，並且希望盡可能地保持價格差距和利潤率。那麼，為什麼他們花了這麼長時間？一直是你的弱點嗎？

That is a question we have asked ourselves over the last year, and it remains a mystery to us. I don't have an answer to that question. I can only speculate that we believe that some retailers were comping off each other on their store brands and they ate the margin, waiting for the others to move.

這是我們去年問過自己的一個問題，對我們來說仍然是個謎。我沒有這個問題的答案。我只能推測我們相信一些零售商在他們的商店品牌上相互競爭，他們吃掉了利潤，等待其他人搬家。

And that was part of the equation. The other part of the equation may have been the amount of lower cost aluminum that they had in inventory during the runoff, so they felt that -- the producers felt like they could wait before they took the pricing. We have got no confirmation other than anybody's hedging. So that is not a scenario that we've believed could have impacted the timing for the private label producers.

這是等式的一部分。等式的另一部分可能是他們在徑流期間庫存中低成本鋁的數量，所以他們覺得——生產商覺得他們可以等到定價之前。除了任何人的對沖外，我們沒有得到任何確認。因此，我們認為這不會影響自有品牌生產商的時間安排。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

I got 3 kind of rapid fire questions, I guess. So thank you for the mid-900s number on gross profit. I think we're all going to step back, say mid-900s gross profit, put $350 million or so on SG&A, $110 million in D&A and walk away saying that you're expecting somewhere in the low 700s from an EBITDA perspective. Is that meaningfully off base?

我猜我有 3 種速射題。因此，感謝您提供 900 年代中期的毛利潤。我認為我們都會退後一步，比如 900 年代中期的毛利潤，在 SG&A 上投入 3.5 億美元左右，在 D&A 上投入 1.1 億美元，然後走開說，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，你預計在 700 年代的某個地方。這有意義嗎？

The SG&A number is a bit low because we will have more advertising than that. So I'd say closer to $400 million.

SG&A 數字有點低，因為我們會有更多的廣告。所以我會說接近4億美元。

Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of the fourth quarter, you put a sales range out there that's really wide -- but you put a volume number, at least the comments suggest that you've got a pretty tight expectation on volume.

好的。這很有幫助。然後就第四季度而言，您提出了一個非常廣泛的銷售範圍——但您提出了一個銷量數字，至少評論表明您對銷量的期望非常嚴格。

I think you said sort of flat to down slightly. Your total sales, plus 9% to 17% suggesting you see at least probably a 500 basis point range on price, which is sort of unusual. Usually, price, you got better visibility on volumes where the uncertainty lies. What's going on there? What drives the exceptionally wide range?

我想你說的有點平淡。你的總銷售額加上 9% 到 17% 表明你看到的價格至少可能在 500 個基點的範圍內，這有點不尋常。通常，價格，您可以更好地了解不確定性所在的交易量。那裡發生了什麼事？是什麼驅動了異常廣泛的範圍？

Yes. The overall revenue range takes into consideration of potential on volume fluctuation. The indicated volume guide is the midpoint of the expected volume performance. So in order to hit the 17% revenue growth, volume will need to end -- need to be up. And on the flip side, if we do a 9%, volume would need to be down.

是的。整體收入範圍考慮了交易量波動的可能性。指示的音量指南是預期音量性能的中點。因此，為了實現 17% 的收入增長，銷量需要結束——需要增加。另一方面，如果我們降幅為 9%，則需要降低交易量。

Okay. That's helpful. And in terms of volume, if I do a 3-year CAGR on Q2, which is effectively like if I do it versus 2019, your volume is down 6% versus 2019. So the whole notion that you're like going to be able to have profit off a higher volume base in this quarter certainly calls it into question. Is there something unique sort of timing-wise that would -- why this quarter is not reflective of sort of a round trip back to not only pre-COVID but actually below pre-COVID levels?

好的。這很有幫助。就銷量而言，如果我在第二季度做一個 3 年的複合年增長率，這實際上就像我與 2019 年相比，你的銷量與 2019 年相比下降了 6%。所以你想要能夠在本季度從更高的銷量基礎中獲利肯定會受到質疑。是否有某種獨特的時間安排——為什麼本季度不僅不能反映到 COVID 之前的水平，而且實際上低於 COVID 之前的水平？

No, I don't see that. We -- the 6%, I haven't done the math on that, so we're going to have to go back and look at -- it's down 50 basis points, right?

不，我沒有看到。我們 - 6%，我還沒有計算過，所以我們必須回頭看看 - 它下降了 50 個基點，對吧？

Yes. Well, 2Q '20, you were up 3% volume. 2Q '21, you're up 1%. Now you're down quite a bit. Like you compound those, it's not positive. It's a negative number. But it sounds like we can follow up offline.

是的。好吧，20 年第二季度，你的銷量增長了 3%。 2Q '21，你上漲了 1%。現在你已經很沮喪了。就像你把那些複合起來一樣，這不是積極的。這是一個負數。但聽起來我們可以離線跟進。

We'll need to, we'll do some math.

我們需要，我們會做一些數學運算。

Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

I hope you're doing well. So I guess I want to follow up on Jason's question in terms of the '23 guidance. I mean, Lance, you mentioned kind of the flexibility, the pricing actions we'll provide looking out to '23.

我希望你一切都好。所以我想我想就 '23 指南跟進 Jason 的問題。我的意思是，蘭斯，你提到了靈活性，我們將在 23 年之前提供的定價行動。

You mentioned promotions decreased as -- but I guess -- how do you really think about the preference from here? Because it seems like you're -- if you're just assuming $400 million in SG&A, you're flowing through a lot of upside to earnings growth of -- if you're taking the $950 million of gross profit or so. Is that the right way to think about it that you're kind of really expecting potentially north of 20% EPS growth looking out to next year?

你提到促銷活動減少了 - 但我猜 - 你真的如何看待這裡的偏好？因為看起來你是——如果你只是假設 4 億美元的 SG&A，你正在經歷很多收益增長的上行空間——如果你獲得了 9.5 億美元左右的毛利潤。這是正確的思考方式嗎，您真的期望明年每股收益增長可能超過 20%？

Yes. I think you're in the ballpark there.

是的。我想你在那兒。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess I just want to follow up on Lauren's question regarding the gap between price and cost pressures and thinking through the 3Q earnings guidance. I mean, can you maybe just break out more specifically what you're expecting in terms of gross margin versus higher SG&A that would drive EPS and adjusted EBITDA to be down strong double digits. I know you mentioned higher incentive comp and ad spent. But just any commentary specifically around those 2 items would be really helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想我只是想跟進勞倫關於價格和成本壓力之間差距的問題，並思考第三季度的盈利指引。我的意思是，你能否更具體地說明你在毛利率方面的預期與更高的 SG&A 相比，這將推動每股收益和調整後的 EBITDA 下降兩位數。我知道你提到了更高的激勵補償和廣告支出。但是，任何專門針對這兩個項目的評論都會非常有幫助。

Yes. So I think that the reference is that, overall, our SG&A is going to be up with the primary driver of that is being overall compensation.

是的。所以我認為參考是，總的來說，我們的 SG&A 將與整體薪酬的主要驅動力保持一致。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I would now like to turn the call back over to Lance Mitchell for closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，問答環節到此結束。我現在想把電話轉回給 Lance Mitchell 做結束語。

Thank you, everybody, for your questions. We appreciate your time this morning. Our business is well positioned for any economic environment, and we anticipate earnings growth in the fourth quarter. I want to thank our employees and our retail partners for their dedication and their contributions during these challenging and dynamic times. Thank you.

謝謝大家的提問。我們感謝您今天早上的時間。我們的業務在任何經濟環境下都處於有利地位，我們預計第四季度的盈利增長。我要感謝我們的員工和零售合作夥伴在這個充滿挑戰和充滿活力的時期所做出的奉獻和貢獻。謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。