Radian Group Inc (RDN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Radian's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Radian 2023 年第三季電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to John Damian, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁約翰·達米安 (John Damian)。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Radian's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Our press release, which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter, was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website at www.radian.com. This press release includes certain non-GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call, including adjusted pretax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share and adjusted net operating return on equity.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Radian 2023 年第三季電話會議。我們的新聞稿包含 Radian 本季的財務業績，已於昨天晚上發布，並發佈在我們網站 www.radian.com 的投資者部分。本新聞稿包括今天電話會議期間可能討論的某些非公認會計原則措施，包括調整後的稅前營業收入、調整後的攤薄每股淨營業收入和調整後的淨營業股本回報率。

A complete description of all of our non-GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F, and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website.

我們所有非 GAAP 衡量標準的完整描述可在新聞稿附錄 F 中找到，這些衡量標準與最具可比性的 GAAP 衡量標準的調整可在新聞稿附錄 G 中找到。這些附錄位於我們網站的投資者部分。

Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer; and Sumita Pandit, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call is Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage.

今天，您將聽到 Radian 執行長 Rick Thornberry 的演講；蘇米塔·潘迪特（Sumita Pandit），財務長。 Radian Mortgage 總裁 Derek Brummer 也出席了電話會議的問答部分。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包含前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於目前的預期、估計、預測和假設，存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。

For discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors including in our 2022 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website.

有關這些風險的討論，請查看我們的收益發布中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警示性陳述以及我們向 SEC 提交的 2022 年 10-K 表格和後續報告中包含的風險因素。這些也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Rick.

現在我想把電話轉給里克。

Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today. I am pleased to report another excellent quarter for Radian. GAAP revenues grew year-over-year to $314 million. We generated net income of $157 million or $0.98 per diluted share. Our annualized return on equity was 15%, and adjusted net operating ROE was 16% in the third quarter. Book value per share increased 12% year-over-year to $26.69.

下午好，感謝大家今天加入我們。我很高興地向大家報告 Radian 又一個出色的季度。 GAAP 營收年增至 3.14 億美元。我們產生了 1.57 億美元的淨利潤，即稀釋後每股收益 0.98 美元。第三季我們的年化股本回報率為 15%，調整後的淨營運 ROE 為 16%。每股帳面價值年增 12% 至 26.69 美元。

Radian Group paid a $35 million dividend to stockholders, reflecting the highest yielding dividend in the industry. We repurchased 1.9 million shares or $50 million of common stock in the quarter. And our overall liquidity and capital positions remained very strong. These results reflect the quality and earnings power of our highly valuable mortgage insurance portfolio combined with our successful track record of effectively managing our capital resources.

Radian Group 向股東支付了 3,500 萬美元的股息，這是業界股息殖利率最高的。我們在本季回購了 190 萬股或價值 5,000 萬美元的普通股。我們的整體流動性和資本狀況仍然非常強勁。這些結果反映了我們極具價值的抵押貸款保險投資組合的品質和獲利能力，以及我們有效管理資本資源的成功記錄。

We continue to monitor macroeconomic trends, including heightened geopolitical risks. While we continue to experience mortgage and real estate market headwinds in terms of higher interest rates, housing supply constraints and affordability challenges, market conditions for our mortgage insurance business remained positive, including increasing home prices, employment stability, decreased inflation and an improved reinsurance market for risk distribution.

我們持續監控宏觀經濟趨勢，包括地緣政治風險加劇。雖然我們繼續面臨利率上升、住房供應限制和負擔能力挑戰等抵押貸款和房地產市場的不利因素，但我們抵押貸款保險業務的市場狀況仍然樂觀，包括房價上漲、就業穩定、通貨膨脹下降和再保險市場改善用於風險分配。

In terms of our mortgage insurance business, we continue to leverage our proprietary analytics and RADAR Rates platform to successfully identify and capture economic value in the market. As a result, we wrote $13.9 billion of high-quality mortgage insurance business in the third quarter of 2023. This contributed to 4% growth year-over-year in our primary mortgage insurance in force portfolio, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company.

在我們的抵押貸款保險業務方面，我們繼續利用我們的專有分析和RADAR Rates平台來成功識別和捕捉市場上的經濟價值。因此，我們在 2023 年第三季承保了 139 億美元的優質抵押貸款保險業務。這促使我們有效的主要抵押貸款保險投資組合同比增長 4%，這是未來盈利的主要驅動力對於我們公司來說。

We continue to see positive credit performance in our mortgage insurance portfolio during the quarter, and our persistency rate remains strong. From a quality perspective, our $270 billion mortgage insurance portfolio has been well underwritten and has a strong overall credit profile. It's also worth repeating that higher interest rates resulted in higher yields on our $6 billion investment portfolio. This supports higher returns and generates incremental income that flows directly to our bottom line.

本季我們的抵押貸款保險投資組合繼續保持積極的信用表現，並且我們的持續率仍然強勁。從品質角度來看，我們 2,700 億美元的抵押貸款保險投資組合得到了良好的承保，並具有良好的整體信用狀況。另外值得重複的是，較高的利率導致我們 60 億美元的投資組合的收益率較高。這支持更高的回報並產生增量收入，直接流入我們的利潤。

In terms of the housing market, based on industry projections for the total mortgage originations of $1.6 trillion, we now expect the private mortgage insurance market in 2023 to be approximately $300 billion. And based on early industry projections, we expect a similarly sized MI market in 2024. While low inventory and strong market demand continue to create challenges for first-time homebuyers, these dynamics help to mitigate downside risk in home values, which is positive for our insured portfolio. And we believe the resulting pent-up demand also provides strong support for future purchase volume, which drives the growth in our large and valuable insurance in force portfolio.

就房屋市場而言，根據產業對抵押貸款發放總額 1.6 兆美元的預測，我們現在預計 2023 年私人抵押貸款保險市場約為 3,000 億美元。根據早期的行業預測，我們預計2024 年MI 市場將達到類似規模。雖然低庫存和強勁的市場需求繼續給首次購房者帶來挑戰，但這些動態有助於減輕房屋價值的下行風險，這對我們來說是積極的受保投資組合。我們相信由此產生的被壓抑的需求也為未來的購買量提供了強有力的支持，從而推動了我們龐大而有價值的保險組合的成長。

Given that our mortgage insurance business benefits from increases in demand, home prices and purchase volume, our overall outlook for the business remains generally positive. With regards to our homegenius business, we continue to navigate the market challenge of higher interest rates and limited inventory, which is constrained mortgage and real estate activity. We will continue to adjust our cost structure and align our strategy investments to the current market, while positioning for an improved market and the opportunities ahead.

鑑於我們的抵押貸款保險業務受益於需求、房價和購買量的成長，我們對該業務的整體前景仍然總體樂觀。就我們的家庭天才業務而言，我們繼續應對利率上升和庫存有限的市場挑戰，這限制了抵押貸款和房地產活動。我們將繼續調整成本結構，調整策略投資以適應當前市場，同時為改善的市場和未來的機會做好準備。

And we continue to build on our strong track record for managing our capital resources, with holding company liquidity continuing to remain strong at $1.3 billion. Sumita will discuss our capital position in more detail, including our 2 new reinsurance agreements. It's important to note that we continue to leverage our expertise on managing credit risk using an array of risk distribution strategies and structures in order to effectively manage capital and execute our aggregate, manage and distribute mortgage insurance business model.

我們繼續鞏固我們在管理資本資源方面的良好記錄，控股公司的流動性繼續保持在 13 億美元的強勁水平。 Sumita 將更詳細地討論我們的資本狀況，包括我們的 2 份新的再保險協議。值得注意的是，我們將繼續利用我們在管理信用風險方面的專業知識，使用一系列風險分配策略和結構，以有效地管理資本並執行我們的匯總、管理和分配抵押貸款保險業務模式。

We believe the strength of our capital position significantly enhances our financial flexibility now and going forward. Over the years, we've consistently demonstrated a strategic focus on capital optimization. As we've noted previously, we carefully consider the balance between organic growth, the return of capital to stockholders and other accretive capital allocation opportunities.

我們相信，我們的資本狀況實力將顯著增強我們現在和未來的財務靈活性。多年來，我們一貫地展現對資本優化的策略重點。正如我們之前指出的，我們仔細考慮有機成長、股東資本回報和其他增值資本配置機會之間的平衡。

Many of you have highlighted our differentiation from peers in terms of the capital return as well as our effectiveness in unlocking trapped capital wherever feasible. As you've heard me say before, our company is built to withstand economic cycles, significantly strengthen by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk-based pricing and the distribution of risk into the capital and reinsurance markets.

你們中的許多人都強調了我們在資本回報方面與同行的區別，以及我們在可行的情況下釋放被困資本的有效性。正如您之前聽我說過的，我們公司的建立是為了抵禦經濟週期，並透過 PMIER 資本框架、基於風險的動態定價以及將風險分配到資本和再保險市場來顯著增強。

Sumita will now cover the details of our financial position.

Sumita 現在將詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Rick, and good afternoon to you all. I'm pleased to provide additional details about our third quarter results, which demonstrated the continued strength of our high-quality mortgage insurance in force portfolio and our ongoing strategic focus on capital management.

謝謝你，瑞克，祝大家下午好。我很高興提供有關我們第三季度業績的更多詳細信息，這證明了我們有效的高品質抵押貸款保險投資組合的持續實力以及我們對資本管理的持續戰略重點。

We produced another strong quarter of operating results in the third quarter of 2023, earning GAAP net income of $157 million or $0.98 per diluted share compared to $0.91 per diluted share in the second quarter. Adjusted diluted net operating income per share for the quarter was slightly higher at $1.04 compared to $0.91 per share in the second quarter. We generated a 15% annualized return on equity and 16% adjusted net operating return on equity for the third quarter. Our book value per share grew 12% year-over-year to $26.69 as of September 30.

2023 年第三季度，我們又取得了強勁的季度經營業績，按照 GAAP 計算淨利潤為 1.57 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 0.98 美元，而第二季度稀釋後每股收益為 0.91 美元。本季調整後稀釋後每股淨營業收入略高於第二季的每股 0.91 美元，為 1.04 美元。第三季我們的年化股本回報率為 15%，調整後的淨營運股本回報率為 16%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的每股帳面價值年增 12% 至 26.69 美元。

Despite continued challenges in the macroeconomic environment, we generated $314 million of total revenues during the third quarter compared to $290 million in the second quarter. As a reminder, our total revenues and net premiums earned in the second quarter were reduced by a onetime increase in ceded premiums earned of $21 million due to the Eagle Re tender offers and subsequent retirement of certain seasoned insurance linked notes and the corresponding portion of the reinsurance agreements that no longer provided any capital benefit to Radian Guaranty.

儘管宏觀經濟環境持續面臨挑戰，但我們第三季的總收入為 3.14 億美元，而第二季為 2.9 億美元。提醒一下，我們第二季度的總收入和淨保費有所減少，但由於Eagle Re 的要約收購以及隨後某些成熟的保險相關票據和相應部分的退役，所賺取的分出保費一次性增加了2100 萬美元，從而減少了我們的總收入和淨保費。再保險協議不再向 Radian Guaranty 提供任何資本收益。

In the third quarter, our total revenue, net premium yield and net premiums earned, all began to benefit from the ongoing savings in ceded premiums resulting from the successful Eagle Re tender offers. Slides 10 through 12 in our presentation include details on our ceded premiums as well as other key drivers of our net premiums earned. Our primary insurance in force grew 4% year-over-year to $270 billion as of September 30, 2023, generating $237 million in net premiums earned for our mortgage segment in the third quarter.

第三季度，我們的總收入、淨保費收益率和淨保費均開始受益於鷹再保險成功收購要約帶來的分出保費的持續節省。我們簡報中的投影片 10 至 12 詳細介紹了我們的分出保費以及我們賺取的淨保費的其他關鍵驅動因素。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的有效主要保險年增 4%，達到 2,700 億美元，第三季我們的抵押貸款業務淨保費收入為 2.37 億美元。

Contributing to the growth of our insurance in force was $13.9 billion of new insurance written for the third quarter compared to $16.9 billion in the second quarter. While the industry-wide decrease in mortgage originations has provided headwinds over the past year for our new insurance written, it has significantly benefited the persistency rate of our insurance in force, which remained high at 84% in the third quarter based on the trailing 12 months compared to 76% a year ago.

第三季新承保的保險金額為 139 億美元，而第二季為 169 億美元，這對我們有效保險的成長做出了貢獻。雖然全行業抵押貸款發放量的下降在過去一年給我們新承保的保險帶來了阻力，但它極大地提高了我們現有保險的持續率，根據過去12 年的數據，第三季度該保險的持續率仍保持在84% 的高位。與一年前的 76% 相比。

We provide more detail on our persistency trends on Slide 10. We expect our persistency rate to remain strong, given the sharp and continuing rise in mortgage rates following an extended period of exceptionally low rates. Greater than 80% of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 6% or less as of the end of the third quarter and is therefore less likely to cancel in the near term due to refinancing.

我們在幻燈片 10 上提供了有關我們的持久性趨勢的更多詳細資訊。我們預計我們的持久性率將保持強勁，因為在長期的極低利率之後，抵押貸款利率將急劇且持續上升。截至第三季末，我們超過 80% 的有效保險的抵押貸款利率為 6% 或更低，因此短期內因再融資而取消的可能性較小。

The natural hedge provided by the relationship between our new insurance written and persistency rates has helped to sustain our insurance in force growth and earnings power in varied interest rate environments. As shown on Slide 12 and consistent with our prior expectations, the in force portfolio premium yield for our mortgage insurance portfolio remained stable in the third quarter at 38 basis points compared to the level reported at year-end 2022.

我們的新承保保險費率和持續保險費率之間的關係提供的自然對沖有助於在不同的利率環境下維持我們的保險保費增長和盈利能力。如投影片 12 所示，與我們先前的預期一致，我們的抵押貸款保險投資組合的有效投資組合保費收益率在第三季與 2022 年底報告的水平相比保持穩定，為 38 個基點。

With strong persistency rates and the current industry pricing environment, we continue to expect the in force portfolio premium yield to remain relatively flat over the near term. The higher interest rate environment has also benefited our investment income, which grew 34% year-over-year to $69 million in this quarter. As shown on Slide 14, our total investment portfolio of $6 billion consists of well-diversified, highly rated securities.

憑藉強勁的持續率和當前的行業定價環境，我們繼續預期有效投資組合溢價收益率在短期內將保持相對穩定。較高的利率環境也有利於我們的投資收入，本季投資收入年增 34% 至 6,900 萬美元。如投影片 14 所示，我們 60 億美元的總投資組合由高度多元化、評級較高的證券組成。

The yield on our investment portfolio of 4.2% continued to increase during the third quarter, as shown on Slide 15, and the higher rate environment should continue to be positive for our investment income and revenues. In addition, our homegenius segment revenues totaled $15 million for the third quarter of '23 consistent with the second quarter.

如投影片 15 所示，第三季我們的投資組合收益率為 4.2%，持續成長，較高的利率環境應繼續有利於我們的投資收入和收入。此外，23 年第三季我們的 homegenius 部門營收總計 1,500 萬美元，與第二季一致。

I now move on to our provision for losses. The positive credit trends that we have been experiencing continued into the most recent quarter. We recognized a net benefit of $8 million in our mortgage provision for losses in the third quarter compared to a net benefit of $22 million in the second quarter. Our defaults continue to cure at rates greater than our previous expectations, resulting in releases of prior period results.

我現在繼續討論我們的損失撥備。我們所經歷的正向信貸趨勢持續到最近一個季度。我們在第三季的抵押貸款損失撥備中確認了 800 萬美元的淨收益，而第二季的淨收益為 2,200 萬美元。我們的違約率繼續以高於我們之前預期的速度修復，導致發布前期業績。

On Slide 17, we provide trends for our primary default inventory, which continues to benefit from the strong cure trends. Our ending primary default inventory as of September 30 was approximately 20,000 loans, representing a portfolio default rate of 2% consistent with the last few quarters. The number of new defaults reported to us by services increased in the third quarter of 2023 to approximately 11,200 from 9,800 in the second quarter, consistent with the expected seasoning of our growing insurance in force portfolio and seasonal trends in the quarter.

在幻燈片 17 中，我們提供了主要違約庫存的趨勢，該庫存繼續受益於強勁的治癒趨勢。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的期末主要違約庫存約為 20,000 筆貸款，投資組合違約率為 2%，與過去幾個季度一致。服務業向我們報告的新違約數量從第二季的 9,800 起增加到 2023 年第三季的約 11,200 起，這與我們不斷增長的有效保險組合的預期變化和本季度的季節性趨勢一致。

Cures remained strong at approximately 10,500, consistent with the second quarter of '23. We continue to maintain our default to claim rate frequency assumption for new defaults at 8%, resulting in $47 million of loss provision for new defaults reported during the quarter. This provision for new defaults was offset by $55 million of positive reserve development on prior period defaults due to the favorable cure trends and higher clean withdrawals by services.

治癒人數仍然強勁，約 10,500 人，與 23 年第二季一致。我們繼續將新違約的違約索賠率頻率假設維持在 8%，導致本季報告的新違約損失準備金為 4700 萬美元。由於有利的治療趨勢和更高的服務淨提款額，新違約準備金被前期違約的 5500 萬美元正準備金開發所抵消。

These favorable trends are driven primarily by the significant embedded homeowner equity resulting from the strong home price appreciation experienced in recent years. 82% of our existing defaults have estimated embedded home equity of 20% or greater using an index-based approach.

這些有利的趨勢主要是由近年來房價強勁升值帶來的大量嵌入房主權益所推動的。我們現有的違約中 82% 使用基於指數的方法估計嵌入房屋淨值為 20% 或更高。

Turning to our other expenses. For the third quarter, our other operating expenses totaled $79 million, a decrease compared to $90 million in the second quarter. The lower expenses recognized this quarter were consistent with our expectations and reflect the benefit from our expense savings actions to date. Our combined year-to-date consolidated cost of services and other operating expenses through September 30 have decreased by $56 million or 16% compared to the same 9-month period last year.

轉向我們的其他開支。第三季度，我們的其他營運費用總計 7,900 萬美元，比第二季度的 9,000 萬美元有所下降。本季確認的較低費用與我們的預期一致，反映了我們迄今為止的費用節省行動所帶來的好處。截至 9 月 30 日，我們年初至今的綜合服務成本和其他營運支出與去年同期 9 個月相比減少了 5,600 萬美元，即 16%。

Assuming these positive trends continue, we will remain on pace to achieve the higher end of our previous full year guidance for the 12-month savings of $60 million to $80 million or 13% to 17% for 2023, and we continue to actively manage our expenses.

假設這些積極趨勢持續下去，我們將繼續努力實現先前全年指導的較高目標，即 2023 年 12 個月節省 6000 萬至 8000 萬美元，即 13% 至 17%，並且我們將繼續積極管理我們的花費。

Moving finally to our capital available liquidity and related strategic actions. The financial position of our primary operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty, remains strong. Consistent with the first 2 quarters of this year, Radian Guaranty paid another $100 million ordinary dividend to the holding company, Radian Group, in the third quarter. Based on current performance expectations, we are increasing the low end of our previous guidance and now expect Radian Guaranty to pay another dividend to the holding company of between $50 million to $100 million in the fourth quarter, bringing the expected full year 2023 total dividends from Radian Guaranty to between $350 million and $400 million.

最後轉向我們的可用資本流動性和相關策略行動。我們的主要營運子公司 Radian Guaranty 的財務狀況仍然強勁。與今年前兩個季度一致，Radian Guaranty 在第三季向控股公司 Radian Group 再次支付了 1 億美元的普通股息。根據目前的業績預期，我們正在提高先前指導的下限，現在預計 Radian Guaranty 將在第四季度向控股公司再次支付 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的股息，從而使 2023 年全年預期股息總額從Radian 擔保金額在3.5 億至4 億美元之間。

Our statutory capital framework continues to remain our binding constraint to pay future ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group. Radian Guaranty's excess PMIERs available assets over minimum required assets remained stable at $1.7 billion as of September 30. We continue to diversify our sources of capital as we use a broad range of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk.

我們的法定資本框架仍然是 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 支付未來普通股利的約束。截至 9 月 30 日，Radian Guaranty 超過最低要求資產的 PMIER 可用資產穩定在 17 億美元。我們繼續實現資本來源多元化，採用廣泛的風險分配策略來有效管理資本並主動降低風險。

We are pleased with the increasing demand across the reinsurance and ILN markets, which allow us to distribute risk at an attractive cost of capital. Subsequent to quarter end, in October, radian Guaranty finalized 2 new reinsurance agreements under attractive terms. We closed a traditional excess of loss reinsurance agreement covering approximately $250 million of existing risk. We also entered into a new ILN transaction covering approximately $350 million of existing risk.

我們對再保險和 ILN 市場不斷增長的需求感到高興，這使我們能夠以有吸引力的資本成本分配風險。季度末後的 10 月份，radian Guaranty 以極具吸引力的條款敲定了 2 份新的再保險協議。我們簽訂了一項傳統的超額損失再保險協議，涵蓋約 2.5 億美元的現有風險。我們還達成了一項新的 ILN 交易，涵蓋約 3.5 億美元的現有風險。

Pro forma for these transactions, Radian Guaranty's PMIERs cushion at the end of the third quarter would have increased to $2.2 billion. Our available holding company liquidity remains stable at slightly over $1 billion at the end of the third quarter, net of dividends and share repurchases for the quarter. During the third quarter, we paid a dividend to Radian Group stockholders of $0.225 per share, totaling $35 million, and purchased 1.9 million shares at a total cost of $50 million.

根據這些交易的預計，第三季末 Radian Guaranty 的 PMIER 緩衝將增加至 22 億美元。扣除本季股利和股票回購後，我們的控股公司可用流動性在第三季末保持穩定在略高於 10 億美元的水平。第三季度，我們向Radian Group股東支付了每股0.225美元的股息，總計3,500萬美元，並以總成本5,000萬美元購買了190萬股股票。

As of the end of the third quarter, our current share repurchase authorization that expires in January 2025 had $230 million remaining. Our results for this quarter once again highlight the strength and resiliency of our company, despite the uncertainties in the current macroeconomic economy.

截至第三季末，我們目前將於 2025 年 1 月到期的股票回購授權剩餘 2.3 億美元。儘管當前宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們本季的業績再次凸顯了我們公司的實力和彈性。

I will now turn the call back over to Rick.

我現在將把電話轉回給里克。

Thank you, Sumita. Before we open the call to your questions, I want to highlight that we are pleased with our results and remain focused on executing our strategic plans. We are driving operational excellence across our businesses and aligning our overall expense structure and resources to reflect the market environment. Our growing $270 billion mortgage insurance portfolio is highly valuable and is expected to deliver significant earnings going forward.

謝謝你，蘇田。在我們開始回答大家的問題之前，我想強調我們對我們的結果感到滿意，並將繼續專注於執行我們的策略計劃。我們正在推動整個業務的卓越運營，並調整我們的整體費用結構和資源以反映市場環境。我們不斷成長的 2,700 億美元抵押貸款保險投資組合極具價值，預計未來將帶來可觀的收益。

We continue to strategically manage capital by maintaining strong holding company liquidity and PMIERs cushion, expecting to continue to pay ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group and opportunistically repurchasing shares, including $50 million of common stock in the quarter.

我們繼續透過維持強大的控股公司流動性和 PMIER 緩衝來策略性地管理資本，預計將繼續從 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 支付普通股息，並伺機回購股票，包括本季 5,000 萬美元的普通股。

I know many of you are familiar with our annual fundraiser for The MBA Opens Doors Foundation, an incredible organization that shares our mission of affordable homeownership by helping families with critically ill or injured children to remain in their homes while their children are in treatment.

我知道你們中的許多人都熟悉我們為MBA Opens Doors Foundation 舉辦的年度籌款活動，這是一個令人難以置信的組織，它與我們一樣擁有負擔得起的住房，幫助患有重病或受傷兒童的家庭在孩子接受治療時留在家中。

We launched this year's campaign during The MBA Annual Convention in our hometown of Philadelphia. I wanted to thank all who have contributed to this outstanding cause. We will be fundraising through November 17. So visit radianopensdoors.com if you would like to learn more. And finally, I want to recognize our team for helping to drive our strong results and for the outstanding work they do every day.

我們在家鄉費城舉行的 MBA 年會上發起了今年的活動。我要感謝所有為這項傑出事業做出貢獻的人。我們的籌款活動將持續到 11 月 17 日。如果您想了解更多信息，請訪問 radianopensdoors.com。最後，我想對我們的團隊表示認可，他們幫助我們取得了優異的成績，並感謝他們每天所做的出色工作。

And now operator, we would be happy to take questions.

現在接線員，我們很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Bose George with KBW.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Bose George。

I wanted to ask about the expense reductions. As you guys noted, it's moving in the right direction really well. Just when you think about it going forward, I know you reiterated the guidance for the full year. But on a quarterly basis, could we see the OpEx remain closer to what you guys did this quarter? Or will that kind of bounce around a little bit still?

我想問一下費用削減的情況。正如你們所指出的，它正在朝著正確的方向發展。就在您思考未來時，我知道您重申了全年的指導方針。但從季度來看，我們是否可以看到營運支出仍然接近你們本季的表現？或者這種情況還會有一點反彈嗎？

Yes, thanks, both, for the question. I think we had given guidance for our full year. We have not traditionally given a quarterly guidance. So I think last year, if you look at our 2022 total expenses, which includes cost of services and other operating expenses, we were at about $464 million. I think the guidance we had given at the beginning of the year was $380 million to $400 million for 2023. And I think what we are reiterating is that we expect to be at the top end of that range from an expense savings perspective. I think, going forward, we would continue to have a similar run rate for each quarter, but we've not given a specific quarterly guidance as of now.

是的，謝謝兩位提出的問題。我認為我們已經給出了全年的指導。我們傳統上沒有給出季度指引。因此，我認為去年，如果你看看我們 2022 年的總支出，其中包括服務成本和其他營運支出，我們的支出約為 4.64 億美元。我認為我們年初給出的指導是 2023 年 3.8 億至 4 億美元。我認為我們重申的是，從節省費用的角度來看，我們預計將處於該範圍的頂端。我認為，展望未來，我們每季將繼續保持類似的運行率，但到目前為止我們還沒有給出具體的季度指引。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then actually, just switching to homegenius. To the extent that rates kind of remain in the range they're in now, any updated thoughts about when that gets closer to breakeven?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後實際上，只是切換到 homegenius。在某種程度上，利率仍保持在目前的範圍內，對於何時接近損益兩平有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Bose, I appreciate the question. Look, as we've discussed the environment, not just for homegenius, certain of the businesses, but the entire mortgage industry and real estate industry has been challenging, continues to be challenging. And I think our team has done a very good job of focusing on expenses. And I just -- if I kind of walk through some of the different components of it, I think sometimes it's helpful that when you think about the capacity -- addressing capacity in both our real estate services, which is our REO, SFR and valuation business and our title business, that since -- with a significant decline in volumes, we've been addressing expenses throughout the year to drive that down closer to profitability.

博斯，我很欣賞這個問題。瞧，正如我們所討論的那樣，環境不僅對 homegenius、某些企業而言，而且對整個抵押貸款行業和房地產行業來說都充滿挑戰，而且仍然充滿挑戰。我認為我們的團隊在關注費用方面做得非常好。我只是——如果我詳細介紹其中的一些不同組成部分，我認為有時當你考慮能力時，解決我們房地產服務的能力，即我們的 REO、SFR 和估值，會很有幫助。業務和我們的產權業務，自那以後，隨著銷量的大幅下降，我們全年都在處理費用問題，以使其更接近盈利能力。

Actually, our real estate services business is profitable kind of through the cycle, has great operating leverage to it. And the title business has been a little bit more challenging as we gone through the year. I think we've made great progress on that. The other part of the expense spend, if you will, is really our investment in our data and analytics and technology platform around our digital real estate platform. And that investment has really been made from a thoughtful and considered way in terms of how we see the opportunity to create value through that platform.

事實上，我們的房地產服務業務在整個週期中都是有利可圖的，並且具有很大的營運槓桿。在這一年裡，產權業務變得更具挑戰性。我認為我們在這方面已經取得了很大進展。如果你願意的話，費用支出的另一部分實際上是我們對圍繞數位房地產平台的數據、分析和技術平台的投資。就我們如何看待透過該平台創造價值的機會而言，這項投資確實是經過深思熟慮的方式進行的。

And so where I would summarize today is that our team is highly focused on managing expenses and kind of moving the business towards profitability. We're going to continue to kind of manage our title and real estate services business towards that profitable contribution as we go into 2024, and we're going to continue to invest in the digital technology platform because we see value. And just a quick comment the recent MBA Conference, where we rolled out our digital real estate platform to lenders, we're discussing that with literally tens of other types of lenders and corporations getting great feedback on positioning our platform as their customer journey for kind of a digital real estate experience.

因此，我今天要總結的是，我們的團隊高度專注於管理費用和推動業務獲利。進入 2024 年，我們將繼續管理我們的產權和房地產服務業務，以實現盈利貢獻，並且我們將繼續投資數位技術平台，因為我們看到了價值。在最近的MBA 會議上，我們向貸方推出了我們的數位房地產平台，我們正在與數十家其他類型的貸方和公司進行討論，他們在將我們的平台定位為他們的客戶旅程方面獲得了很好的回饋。數位房地產體驗。

And so we're -- feedback is good. I think our investment is going to be well served. And so -- but we're just being very balanced about kind of current investment against the opportunity we see. I will say this -- and I just want to highlight one other thing. I think, as you know, because you're as close to this market as anybody, the next 2 quarters for the mortgage industry, real estate industry are going to be very challenging from a volume point of view. And we're anticipating that and understand kind of those challenges that both our customers are going to have.

所以我們——反饋很好。我認為我們的投資將會得到很好的回報。所以，我們只是在當前投資與我們看到的機會之間保持非常平衡。我要這麼說——我只想強調另一件事。我認為，正如您所知，因為您和其他人一樣接近這個市場，所以從數量的角度來看，未來兩個季度抵押貸款行業、房地產行業將面臨很大的挑戰。我們預計並了解我們的客戶將面臨的挑戰。

And just as we manage our businesses through this environment, I think volumes are going to be seasonally low. But both our title business and our real estate services business are well positioned kind of as this -- as the market starts to bounce back even to a small degree. So -- but very focused on expenses, very conscious of the value we believe we're creating and trying to be very thoughtful about as we navigate through this environment.

正如我們在這種環境下管理業務一樣，我認為銷售量將出現季節性低迷。但我們的產權業務和房地產服務業務都處於有利的位置——因為市場開始反彈，即使是小幅度的反彈。所以——但非常關注費用，非常清楚我們相信我們正在創造的價值，並在我們度過這個環境時努力深思熟慮。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

Maybe I'll just start with the pricing question. Maybe just we've been -- just wanted to check in, what's the pricing environment like that you're seeing? Did you see any signs of increased price competition between the MIs this quarter? What have you been doing on the pricing side? Any updates there?

也許我會從定價問題開始。也許我們只是想了解一下，您所看到的定價環境如何？本季您是否發現多邊機構之間的價格競爭加劇的跡象？您在定價方面做了什麼？有更新嗎？

Mihir, it's Derek. So in terms of the pricing environment, it continues to be rational and disciplined. And we saw a fairly normal pricing fluctuations really throughout the quarter. This included what we estimate was a small decrease in market clearing levels in the latter half of the quarter. But important to keep in mind that, that's really within the bounds of what I'd call a normalized kind of competitive environment.

米希爾，我是德里克。所以從定價環境來看，還是理性、規範的。我們整個季度都看到相當正常的價格波動。這包括我們估計的本季後半段市場出清水準的小幅下降。但重要的是要記住，這確實在我所說的標準化競爭環境的範圍內。

In terms of the current environment, we view it as a strong one to deploy capital. Pricing remained substantially above from where it was in 2022. And we continue to see really good value across the credit spectrum. So as a result, really, the way we look at it, the pricing and competitive landscape remains very favorable to our strategic focus, which we talked a lot at our Investor Day about and that focuses on generating long-term economic value and leveraging our analytics to generate alpha with really a focus on finding the portion of the MI market with what we estimate to be the long-term economic value of the highest order.

就目前的環境而言，我們認為資本配置的環境較強。定價仍遠高於 2022 年的水平。我們繼續看到整個信用領域的真正價值。因此，實際上，我們看待它的方式，定價和競爭格局仍然非常有利於我們的戰略重點，我們在投資者日上談論了很多，重點是創造長期經濟價值並利用我們的戰略重點。分析以產生阿爾法，真正的重點是找到MI 市場中具有我們估計的最高長期經濟價值的部分。

So that's really been what we've been focused on. And so we think that today's environment offers a really good ability to successfully implement that strategy and deploy capital.

這確實是我們一直在關注的重點。因此，我們認為當今的環境提供了成功實施該策略和部署資本的良好能力。

Got it. And on persistency, I think you mentioned that you expect it to stay high. But I guess, the question is, is there room for it to increase any more from where it is? Or is this pretty much a cyclical peak or historic peak or what have you?

知道了。關於持久性，我想你提到過你希望它保持在高位。但我想，問題是，它是否還有進一步增加的空間？或者這幾乎是一個週期性峰值或歷史峰值或什麼？

Yes, it's a great question, Mihir. I mean we're in very unusual times, rapid rise in rates, a lot of mortgage borrowers at really very low rates. Historically, we've kind of bought mid -- kind of mid-80s was kind of normalized range, kind of the high end of the curve. I would tend to stick there. I think there's a variety of different factors. I think really the question is kind of also a duration question, right, and kind of how our portfolio extends in duration from an earnings potential point of view.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，米希爾。我的意思是，我們正處於非常不尋常的時期，利率迅速上升，許多抵押貸款借款人的利率非常低。從歷史上看，我們在 80 年代中期買了某種標準化範圍，某種曲線的高端。我傾向於堅持在那裡。我認為有多種不同的因素。我認為這個問題其實也是一個久期問題，對吧，以及我們的投資組合如何從獲利潛力的角度延長久期。

And that kind of comes back to Derek's comment about how we think about economic value and future earnings of the portfolio. And if you remember from our Investor Day, as we kind of gave an illustration of kind of those future earnings, the longer persistency persists, right, is kind of positive towards the long-term earnings profile of our portfolio.

這又回到了德里克關於我們如何看待投資組合的經濟價值和未來收益的評論。如果你還記得我們的投資人日，正如我們對這些未來收益的描述一樣，持續時間越長，對我們投資組合的長期收益狀況是有正面影響的。

So I wouldn't -- I would not necessarily give you confidence that it could go higher. But I do think there's a lot of -- Sumita, I think, in her prepared remarks commented about kind of the percent of our portfolio above -- below 6%. So there's a pretty significant movement in mortgage rates required before you see any level of refinance incentive.

所以我不會——我不一定會讓你相信它會走得更高。但我確實認為，Sumita 在她準備好的演講中評論了我們上述投資組合的百分比，低於 6%。因此，在看到任何程度的再融資誘因之前，抵押貸款利率需要發生相當大的變化。

Got it. And then just my last question, maybe on the originations backdrop, right? Obviously, Rick, I think even you mentioned that expecting it to be challenging in the next couple of quarters. And I have 2 questions related to your business from that, right? One is, typically, these are the times you start seeing originators stretch and doing things that from a credit perspective, as they're trying to drive volume, that might not be the best from a credit perspective. Are you seeing any evidence of that in the MI business? And then relatedly, any update on Radian Mortgage Capital? Any uptick in opportunity or something there from what's just from the tougher (inaudible)?

知道了。然後是我的最後一個問題，也許是關於起源背景，對嗎？顯然，里克，我想你也提到過，預計未來幾季會充滿挑戰。我有兩個與您的業務相關的問題，對吧？一是，通常情況下，這些時候你會開始看到發起者從信用角度來看，他們正在努力擴大交易量，做一些事情，但從信用角度來看，這可能不是最好的。您在 MI 業務中看到任何這方面的證據嗎？與此相關的是，Radian Mortgage Capital 有什麼更新嗎？機會有增加嗎？或是從更艱難的事情中得到什麼（聽不清楚）？

Yes, Mihir, thank you for that question. And Derek, feel free to jump in to add to this. But on the -- I would -- given what we've come through from the great financial crisis all the way through today, I would say lenders remain extremely disciplined from an underwriting point of view. Obviously, the nature of the market today is a purchase-driven market. So we see certain attributes kind of increase generally LTVs because of first-time homebuyers; DTIs, the general purchase market attributes. But I'd say from a credit underwriting point of view, we tend to see lenders remaining very disciplined.

是的，米希爾，謝謝你提出這個問題。德瑞克（Derek），請隨意加入進來補充這一點。但我想說的是，考慮到我們從金融危機中一路走到今天的經歷，我想說，從承保的角度來看，貸方仍然非常自律。顯然，當今市場的本質是一個購買驅動的市場。因此，我們看到某些屬性由於首次購房者而普遍增加了 LTV； DTI，一般採購市場屬性。但我想說，從信貸承銷的角度來看，我們傾向於看到貸款人仍然非常自律。

As you know, Derek and his team have a very detailed and thorough process of monitoring the quality of our originators from a number of different attributes as well as from a servicing point of view. And I would say today, not really seeing those trends do anything other than what we would expect given the type of purchase market we're in today.

如您所知，Derek 和他的團隊有一個非常詳細和徹底的流程，從許多不同的屬性以及服務的角度來監控我們的原創者的品質。今天我要說的是，考慮到我們今天所處的購買市場類型，並沒有真正看到這些趨勢發生任何超出我們預期的事情。

The other thing I would add is we don't see a lot of dispersion, I think, in terms of performance from the manufacturing quality kind of across lenders. The other thing to keep in mind is just from a pricing perspective, given kind of RADAR Rates platform, we have the ability, and we do exercise that to differentiate price based upon performance and where we see any sort of deterioration in terms of performance or manufacturing quality as well.

我要補充的另一件事是，我認為，就貸款機構之間的製造品質表現而言，我們沒有看到很大的分散性。另一件需要記住的事情是，從定價的角度來看，考慮到雷達費率平台的類型，我們有能力，並且我們確實會根據性能以及我們看到性能或性能惡化的情況來區分價格。製造品質也是如此。

Yes. And the regulatory restrictions that went in place as part of the post-financial crisis and really kind of do keep -- put constraints on certain types of products that I think are meaningful from the markets we operate in. To your question about Radian Mortgage Capital, it's a great question. It's a timely question. As we've talked about, we've taken over the last couple of years as we've built the platform, gotten the license across the country really, put together an extremely talented team, a very lean and mean team, I should say, but they're highly talented experienced folks.

是的。作為後金融危機的一部分，監管限制確實存在，並且確實對某些類型的產品施加了限制，我認為這些產品對我們經營的市場有意義。關於你關於 Radian Mortgage Capital 的問題，這是一個很好的問題。這是一個及時的問題。正如我們所討論的，我們在過去幾年中接管了平台的建設，真正獲得了全國範圍內的許可，組建了一支非常有才華的團隊，我應該說，這是一支非常精簡和刻薄的團隊，但他們都是非常有才華、經驗豐富的人。

Derek and I have kept it gated and kind of taken a very measured approach because we thought the market was generally not -- it was more or less challenging. I would say, today, we see the opportunity opening, and we're kind of exploring that opportunity, primarily related to the kind of the changes that have gone on through the banking system with the Basel III, obviously, the higher cost of funds.

德里克和我一直把它關在門外，並採取了一種非常謹慎的方法，因為我們認為市場通常不會——它或多或少具有挑戰性。我想說，今天，我們看到了機會，我們正在探索這個機會，主要與巴塞爾 III 銀行體系發生的變化有關，顯然，資金成本更高。

And then obviously, there are some other challenges, I think, to the banking mortgage product around some of the proposed [CRA] regulations, other things that are kind of impacting and causing banks to rethink their presence in the mortgage business, but most of all taking away a large part of the portfolio bid for non-agency production.

顯然，我認為圍繞著一些擬議的 [CRA] 法規，銀行抵押貸款產品還存在一些其他挑戰，其他一些因素會影響並導致銀行重新考慮其在抵押貸款業務中的存在，但大多數情況所有這些都奪去了非機構生產的投資組合投標的很大一部分。

So we've seen that market begin to rationalize and become interesting and attractive, and we just continue to explore the opportunity we see for the platform and the capabilities we have to create the appropriate risk-adjusted returns that we would expect from this business.

因此，我們看到市場開始合理化並變得有趣和有吸引力，我們只是繼續探索我們看到的平台機會和我們所擁有的能力，以創造我們期望從這項業務中獲得適當的風險調整回報。

At this time, I show no further questions. I would like to turn the call back to Rick Thornberry for closing remarks.

此時，我沒有再提出任何問題。我想將電話轉回給 Rick Thornberry，讓其閉幕詞。

Thank you. And thank you, everyone, for your interest in Radian. We enjoy talking about our business each quarter with you, and we look forward to spending time with many of you over the coming days and weeks, kind of further interacting through discussions about the business. I also want to just take time, as I always try to do, is just reiterate the great work our team is doing to serve our customers and find ways to help our customers and say, navigate a challenging environment and also help each other as we all kind of find ourselves in different challenges through life.

謝謝。感謝大家對 Radian 的興趣。我們喜歡每季與您討論我們的業務，我們期待在接下來的幾天和幾週內與您中的許多人共度時光，並透過討論業務來進一步互動。我也想花點時間，就像我一直在努力做的那樣，只是重申我們的團隊正在為服務客戶所做的出色工作，並找到幫助我們的客戶的方法，並說，在充滿挑戰的環境中度過難關，並在我們的工作中互相幫助。所有人都會在生活中遇到不同的挑戰。

So I want to thank our team, and we look forward to the opportunity to talk to all of you as the days ahead come along. So take care, and I appreciate your time that you stay with us today.

因此，我要感謝我們的團隊，我們期待在未來的日子裡有機會與你們所有人交談。所以請保重，我很感謝您今天與我們在一起。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。