Radian Group Inc (RDN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the second quarter 2024 Radian Group earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Radian Group 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dan Kobell, Head of Investor Relations and Capital Management. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係和資本管理主管 Dan Kohbell。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Radian's second quarter 2024 conference call. Our press release, which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter, was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website at radian.com. This press release includes certain non-GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call, including adjusted pretax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share and adjusted net operating return on equity. A complete description of all of our non-GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Radian 2024 年第二季電話會議。我們的新聞稿包含 Radian 本季的財務業績，已於昨天晚上發布，並發佈在我們網站 radian.com 的投資者部分。本新聞稿包括今天電話會議期間可能討論的某些非公認會計原則措施，包括調整後的稅前營業收入、調整後的攤薄每股淨營業收入和調整後的淨營業股本回報率。我們所有非GAAP 衡量標準的完整描述可在新聞稿附錄F 中找到，這些衡量標準與最具可比性的GAAP 衡量標準的調節可在新聞稿附錄G 中找到。 。

Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer; and Sumita Pandit, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call is Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage Insurance.

今天，您將聽到 Radian 執行長 Rick Thornberry 的演講；蘇米塔·潘迪特（Sumita Pandit），財務長。Radian Mortgage Insurance 總裁 Derek Brummer 也出席了電話會議的問答部分。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our 2024 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包含前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於目前的預期、估計、預測和假設，存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。有關這些風險的討論，請查看我們的收益發布中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明以及我們向 SEC 提交的 2024 年 10-K 表格和後續報告中包含的風險因素。這些也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Rick.

現在我想把電話轉給里克。

Thanks, Dan, and thank you all for joining us today. Last evening, we reported another quarter of excellent financial results for Radian. Our results continue to reflect the economic value of our high-quality and growing mortgage insurance portfolio, the resiliency of our company and varied interest rate environments, the strength and quality of our investment portfolio, our strong capital and liquidity positions and our ongoing strategic focus on managing operating expenses.

謝謝丹，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。昨晚，我們報告了 Radian 又一個季度的出色財務業績。我們的業績繼續反映了我們高品質且不斷增長的抵押保險投資組合的經濟價值、我們公司的彈性和不同的利率環境、我們投資組合的實力和品質、我們強大的資本和流動性狀況以及我們持續的策略重點是管理營運費用。

I will begin today by sharing a few financial and business highlights. We increased book value per share by 12% year-over-year to $29.66. We grew revenues to $321 million during the quarter, generating net income of $152 million. Our primary mortgage insurance in force, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company continued to grow to $273 billion. We continue to leverage our proprietary analytics and RADAR Rates platform to identify and capture economic value in the mortgage insurance market, which resulted in $13.9 billion of high-quality new insurance written in the second quarter.

今天我將首先分享一些財務和商業亮點。我們的每股帳面價值年增 12%，達到 29.66 美元。本季我們的營收增至 3.21 億美元，淨利為 1.52 億美元。我們有效的主要抵押貸款保險是我們公司未來收益的主要推動力，繼續增長至 2,730 億美元。我們繼續利用我們的專有分析和 RADAR Rates 平台來識別和捕捉抵押貸款保險市場的經濟價值，從而在第二季度創造了 139 億美元的高品質新保險。

We benefited, again, this quarter from positive credit performance in our mortgage insurance portfolio, resulting in a decline in our default rate to 2% at June 30.

本季我們再次受益於抵押貸款保險投資組合的積極信用表現，導致我們的違約率截至 6 月 30 日下降至 2%。

In terms of operating expenses, as we discussed last quarter, we've been taking broad and significant actions to improve the operating efficiency and operating leverage across Radian. Sumita will provide an update on how our expense savings efforts are expected to benefit our other operating expenses going forward.

在營運費用方面，正如我們上季度所討論的那樣，我們一直在採取廣泛而重大的行動來提高整個 Radian 的營運效率和營運槓桿。Sumita 將提供最新消息，說明我們的費用節省工作預計將如何使我們未來的其他營運費用受益。

Our primary operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty paid its sixth consecutive quarterly ordinary dividend to Radian Group in the amount of $200 million, which was double the amount paid in each of the previous five quarters. Our overall capital and liquidity positions remain strong. We maintained PMIERs cushion for Radian Guaranty of $2.2 billion, and we increased our available holding company liquidity to $1.2 billion.

我們的主要營運子公司 Radian Guaranty 連續第六個季度向 Radian Group 支付普通股息，金額為 2 億美元，是前五個季度每季支付金額的兩倍。我們的整體資本和流動性狀況依然強勁。我們將 PMIER 的 Radian Guaranty 緩衝維持在 22 億美元，並將控股公司的可用流動性增加至 12 億美元。

Consistent with our use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk, we entered into a new quota share reinsurance agreement in June for new business written between July 1, 2024, through June 30, 2025 at attractive cost of capital. Our return on equity in the second quarter was 13.6%, which reflects our strong financial results, including continuing positive credit performance, offset in part by our current excess capital position.

與我們使用風險分配策略來有效管理資本並主動降低風險相一致，我們於6 月以有吸引力的資本成本針對2024 年7 月1 日至2025 年6 月30 日期間簽訂的新業務簽訂了新的配額份額再保險協議。我們第二季的股本回報率為 13.6%，這反映了我們強勁的財務業績，包括持續積極的信貸表現，但部分被我們當前的過剩資本狀況所抵消。

As previously announced, in May 2024, our Board of Directors authorized an increase to our existing share repurchase program to $900 million and extended the time period to June 30, 2026. We are pleased that our strong financial position and capital flexibility allow us to deliver excellent financial results, grow our businesses and serve our customers while opportunistically returning value to our stockholders.

如同先前所宣布的，2024 年 5 月，我們的董事會授權將我們現有的股票回購計畫增加至 9 億美元，並將期限延長至 2026 年 6 月 30 日。我們很高興我們強大的財務狀況和資本靈活性使我們能夠提供出色的財務業績，發展我們的業務並服務我們的客戶，同時機會主義地為我們的股東回報價值。

I am also delighted to share that our mortgage conduit business, Radian Mortgage Capital, brought to market its inaugural private label prime jumbo mortgage securitization transaction of approximately $350 million. As I've discussed previously, we view this business as a natural extension of our successful model for aggregating, managing and distributing mortgage credit risk and a strategic opportunity to leverage our brand known for quality underwriting for the benefit of capital markets investors. Strategically, we also believe this business provides a growth opportunity by expanding and deepening our relationships with our mortgage lender customers, which has been demonstrated by the strong response from large and small originators. Looking ahead, we expect to become a regular issuer in the non-agency mortgage securitization market.

我還很高興地告訴大家，我們的抵押貸款管道業務 Radian Mortgage Capital 已將其首筆自有品牌優質巨額抵押貸款證券化交易推向市場，交易金額約為 3.5 億美元。正如我之前所討論的，我們認為這項業務是我們聚合、管理和分配抵押貸款信用風險的成功模式的自然延伸，也是利用我們以優質承保而聞名的品牌為資本市場投資者帶來利益的策略機會。從策略上講，我們也相信這項業務透過擴大和深化我們與抵押貸款客戶的關係提供了成長機會，大小發起人的強烈反應就證明了這一點。展望未來，我們預計將成為非機構抵押貸款證券化市場的常規發行人。

Turning now to the housing market. Recent industry forecasts project a total mortgage origination market for 2024 of approximately $1.7 trillion, which would represent an increase of 12% compared to 2023. Based on the origination forecast, we continue to estimate that the private mortgage insurance market will be approximately $300 billion in 2024, consistent with the prior year. I believe it's worth noting the positive impact that we expect from the continuing higher interest rate environment in terms of increasing our investment portfolio returns and maintaining strong persistency, benefiting our insurance in force.

現在轉向房地產市場。最近的行業預測預計 2024 年抵押貸款發放市場總額約為 1.7 兆美元，比 2023 年增長 12%。根據初步預測，我們繼續估計 2024 年私人抵押貸款保險市場規模將約為 3,000 億美元，與前一年一致。我認為值得注意的是，我們預計持續走高的利率環境將在增加我們的投資組合回報和維持強勁的持久性方面產生積極影響，從而使我們的保險受益。

Additionally, the housing market remains supply constrained, which we expect will keep overall home value stable from an HPA perspective. It's also important to note here that most borrowers in our insured portfolio has significant embedded equity in our homes, which helps to mitigate the risk of loss by decreasing both the frequency and severity of paid claims, which are expected to continue to positively impact our default and cure trends. Overall, our outlook for the mortgage insurance business remains positive.

此外，房地產市場的供應仍然有限，我們預計從 HPA 的角度來看，這將使整體房屋價值保持穩定。這裡還需要注意的是，我們受保投資組合中的大多數借款人在我們的房屋中都有大量的嵌入資產，這有助於透過降低已付索賠的頻率和嚴重程度來減輕損失風險，預計這將繼續對我們的違約產生積極影響和治療趨勢。總體而言，我們對抵押貸款保險業務的前景仍然樂觀。

Finally, as you've heard me say before, our business model is proven and our company is built to withstand economic cycles. This has been significantly strengthened by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk-based pricing and the distribution of risk into the capital and reinsurance markets. We believe this is recognized on both sides of the political aisle and that we are well positioned to fulfill our important role in the housing finance system.

最後，正如您之前聽我說過的那樣，我們的商業模式已經得到驗證，我們的公司能夠承受經濟週期。PMIER 的資本框架、基於風險的動態定價以及資本和再保險市場的風險分配顯著強化了這一點。我們相信政治兩派都認識到這一點，並且我們有能力履行我們在住房金融體系中的重要角色。

Sumita will now cover the details of our financial and capital positions.

Sumita 現在將介紹我們的財務和資本狀況的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Rick, and good afternoon to you all. I am pleased to provide additional details about our second quarter results, which reflect another strong quarter of performance, producing net income of $152 million or $0.98 per diluted share, in line with the prior quarter. Adjusted diluted net operating income per share was slightly higher than the GAAP metric at $0.99 for the second quarter, compared to $1.03 for the previous quarter.

謝謝你，瑞克，祝大家下午好。我很高興提供有關我們第二季度業績的更多詳細信息，該季度業績反映了另一個強勁的季度業績，淨利潤為 1.52 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.98 美元，與上一季度持平。第二季調整後攤薄每股淨營業收入略高於 GAAP 指標，為 0.99 美元，而上一季為 1.03 美元。

We generated a 13.6% annualized return on equity in the second quarter, which helped to grow our book value per share 12% year-over-year to $29.66. This book value per share growth is in addition to our regular stockholder dividends, which were $37 million during the quarter, reflecting our quarterly dividend of $0.245 per share. We also repurchased $50 million of shares during the second quarter.

第二季我們的年化股本回報率為 13.6%，這使得我們的每股帳面價值年增 12% 至 29.66 美元。每股帳面價值的成長不包括我們的常規股東股息，該季度股息為 3,700 萬美元，反映了我們每股 0.245 美元的季度股息。我們也在第二季回購了 5,000 萬美元的股票。

Turning now to the detailed drivers of our results. Our revenues continue to be strong in the second quarter. We generated $321 million of total revenues during the quarter compared to $319 million in the first quarter and $290 million in the second quarter of '23. Slides 10 through 12 in our presentation include details on our mortgage insurance in force portfolio as well as other key factors impacting our net premiums earned.

現在轉向我們結果的詳細驅動因素。第二季度我們的營收持續強勁。我們本季的總營收為 3.21 億美元，而 2023 年第一季的總營收為 3.19 億美元，第二季的總營收為 2.90 億美元。我們簡報中的投影片 10 至 12 詳細介紹了我們有效的抵押貸款保險投資組合以及其他影響我們淨保費的關鍵因素。

Our primary mortgage insurance in force continued to grow, reaching $273 billion as of the end of the second quarter and generating $235 million in net premiums earned in the quarter. We wrote $13.9 billion of new insurance written in the second quarter of 2024, an increase from $11.5 billion written in the prior quarter. This contributed positively to the growth of our insurance in force. The persistency rate of our existing insurance in force also remained high at 84% in the second quarter based on the trailing 12 months compared to 83% a year ago.

我們有效的主要抵押貸款保險持續成長，截至第二季末達到 2,730 億美元，本季產生的淨保費為 2.35 億美元。2024 年第二季度，我們承保了 139 億美元的新保險，高於上一季的 115 億美元。這對我們有效保險的成長做出了積極貢獻。根據過去 12 個月的數據，我們現有有效保險的持續率在第二季也維持在 84% 的高位，而去年同期為 83%。

As of the end of the second quarter, 74% of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 6% or less. Given current mortgage interest rates, which meaningfully exceed these levels, these policies are less likely to cancel due to refinancing in the near term. We continue to expect our persistency rates to remain strong given current mortgage rates and the overall economic outlook.

截至第二季末，我們74%的有效保險的抵押貸款利率為6%或更低。鑑於目前的抵押貸款利率大大超過了這些水平，這些政策不太可能因短期內的再融資而取消。鑑於當前的抵押貸款利率和整體經濟前景，我們仍然預計我們的持續率將保持強勁。

As shown on slide 12, the in-force portfolio premium yield for our mortgage insurance portfolio remained stable in the quarter at 38.2 basis points. With strong persistency rates and the current positive industry pricing environment, we expect our in-force portfolio premium yield to continue to remain stable for the remainder of the year. The total net yield of our insured portfolio can fluctuate from period to period due to other factors, such as, changes in our risk distribution programs and profit commissions earned.

如投影片 12 所示，本季我們抵押貸款保險投資組合的有效投資組合保費收益率維持穩定在 38.2 個基點。憑藉強勁的持續率和當前積極的行業定價環境，我們預計我們的有效投資組合保費收益率將在今年剩餘時間內繼續保持穩定。由於其他因素，例如我們的風險分配計劃和賺取的利潤佣金的變化，我們受保投資組合的總淨收益率可能會隨著時間的推移而波動。

Our net investment income was $74 million in the second quarter. The increase in our net investment income has been driven by increases over the past year in both the size and average yield of our investment portfolio as well as an increase in income from our mortgage loans held for sale within Radian Mortgage Capital. The $74 million of net investment income this quarter includes $5 million related to mortgage loans held for sale within Radian Mortgage Capital. Excluding that impact, net investment income grew 9% year-over-year.

第二季我們的淨投資收入為 7,400 萬美元。我們的淨投資收入的成長是由過去一年投資組合規模和平均收益率的成長以及Radian Mortgage Capital持有待售抵押貸款收入的成長所推動的。本季 7,400 萬美元的淨投資收入包括與 Radian Mortgage Capital 持有待售抵押貸款相關的 500 萬美元。剔除此影響，投資淨收益較去年同期成長 9%。

As we continue to reinvest cash flows in the current rate environment, we expect our average investment portfolio yield to continue to increase. Our unrealized net loss on investments reflected in stockholders' equity was $377 million at quarter end. We expect that our strong liquidity and cash flow position will provide us with the ability to hold these securities to recovery of the unrealized losses, which would equate to $2.50 that is expected to accrete back into our book value per share over time.

隨著我們在當前利率環境下繼續對現金流進行再投資，我們預計我們的平均投資組合收益率將繼續上升。截至季末，我們反映在股東權益中的未實現投資淨虧損為 3.77 億美元。我們預計，我們強大的流動性和現金流狀況將使我們有能力持有這些證券，以彌補未實現的損失，這相當於2.50 美元，預計隨著時間的推移，該損失將重新計入我們的每股帳面價值。

I will now move on to our provision for losses. Credit trends continue to be extremely positive. Similar to previous quarters, our defaults continue to cure at rates greater than our previous expectations, resulting in releases of prior period results that in recent years have significantly offset reserves established for new defaults. Our favorable loss experience continues to be driven primarily by the significant embedded homeowner equity resulting from the strong home price appreciation experienced in recent years.

我現在將繼續討論我們的損失撥備。信貸趨勢仍然非常積極。與前幾季類似，我們的違約率繼續以高於我們先前預期的速度修復，導致發布的前期業績近年來大大抵消了為新違約建立的準備金。我們良好的虧損經驗繼續主要是由近年來房價強勁升值帶來的大量嵌入房主權益推動的。

On slide 16, we provide trends for our primary default inventory. Total defaults declined to approximately 20,000 loans at quarter end, resulting in a portfolio default rate of 2%, a decline from 2.1% in the prior quarter.

在投影片 16 上，我們提供了主要預設庫存的趨勢。截至季末，違約總數下降至約 20,000 筆貸款，導致投資組合違約率為 2%，較上一季的 2.1% 下降。

As shown on slide 17, our core trends have been very consistent and positive in recent periods, with approximately 90% of defaults curing within four quarters and 97% curing within eight quarters, meaningfully exceeding our initial expectations. Cure rates in the second quarter exhibited typical seasonal trends and compare favorably to similar periods from prior years. The number of new defaults reported to us by services was approximately 11,100 in the second quarter of 2024, a decline of 6% from the previous quarter.

如幻燈片17 所示，我們的核心趨勢在最近幾個時期非常一致和積極，大約90% 的違約在四個季度內得到解決，97% 的違約在八個季度內得到解決，大大超出了我們最初的預期。第二季的治癒率呈現典型的季節性趨勢，與往年同期相比表現良好。2024 年第二季度，服務業向我們報告的新增違約數量約為 11,100 起，較上一季下降 6%。

We continue to maintain our default-to-claim roll rate assumption for new defaults at 8%, which resulted in $48 million of loss provision for new defaults reported during the quarter. Positive reserve development on prior period defaults of $50 million more than offset this provision for new defaults, resulting in a net benefit of $2 million in our mortgage insurance provision for losses in the second quarter.

我們繼續將新違約的違約到索賠滾動率假設維持在 8%，這導致本季度報告的新違約損失準備金為 4800 萬美元。前期違約準備金的積極準備金增加了 5000 萬美元，超過了新違約準備金，導致第二季度我們的抵押貸款保險損失準備金淨收益為 200 萬美元。

Moving on to our other business lines. As a reminder, last quarter, we implemented a change to streamline our segment reporting and summarize the activity for several of our business lines into all other. Total revenues in all Other were $40 million in the second quarter, an increase compared to $34 million in the prior quarter. The adjusted pretax operating loss for all other was $6 million this quarter or $1.4 million before corporate expense allocations.

繼續我們的其他業務線。提醒一下，上個季度，我們實施了一項變革，以簡化我們的部門報告，並將我們幾個業務線的活動總結到所有其他業務線。第二季所有其他業務的總收入為 4,000 萬美元，較上一季的 3,400 萬美元有所成長。本季所有其他調整後的稅前營運虧損為 600 萬美元，扣除公司費用分配前為 140 萬美元。

Now turning on to our other expenses. For the second quarter, our other operating expenses totaled $92 million, an increase compared to $83 million recognized in the first quarter. Expenses in the second quarter included the impact of our annual share-based incentive grants as well as an increase in severance and related expenses. As Rick noted, we have taken significant actions to improve our efficiency and operating leverage across Radian. As a result of these actions, compared to our expense run rate, which was $348 million for the full year 2023, we expect an improvement in 2024 and to see the full benefit of a run rate reduction of $20 million to $25 million in annual operating expense beginning in 2025 based on current operations.

現在轉向我們的其他開支。第二季度，我們的其他營運費用總計 9,200 萬美元，比第一季確認的 8,300 萬美元增加。第二季的費用包括我們年度股權激勵補助的影響以及遣散費和相關費用的增加。正如 Rick 指出的那樣，我們已採取重大行動來提高整個 Radian 的效率和營運槓桿。由於採取了這些行動，與 2023 年全年 3.48 億美元的費用運行率相比，我們預計 2024 年會有所改善，並看到年度運營費用運行率降低 2000 萬美元至 2500 萬美元的全部好處根據當前營運狀況，從2025 年開始支出。

While we continue to actively manage our operating expenses and seek opportunities for additional efficiencies, it is important to note that expenses can fluctuate from quarter to quarter due to changes in line items such as variable incentive compensation and investments in strategic growth initiatives.

雖然我們繼續積極管理營運支出並尋求提高效率的機會，但值得注意的是，由於可變激勵薪酬和策略性成長計畫投資等項目的變化，支出可能會因季度而波動。

Moving on to our capital available liquidity and related strategic actions. The financial position of our primary operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty remained strong. Radian Guaranty paid a $200 million ordinary dividend to Radian Group this quarter, an increase from the $100 million ordinary dividend that Radian Guaranty has paid for each of the last five quarters. The PMIERs cushion remained stable at $2.2 billion even after this higher dividend. At the beginning of the year, we provided guidance that we expected Radian Guaranty to pay $400 million to $500 million of ordinary dividends to Radian Group for the full year 2024.

接下來討論我們的可用資本流動性和相關策略行動。我們的主要營運子公司 Radian Guaranty 的財務狀況仍然強勁。Radian Guaranty 本季向 Radian Group 支付了 2 億美元的普通股息，較過去五個季度每季支付的 1 億美元的普通股息有所增加。即使在股息增加之後，PMIER 緩衝仍穩定在 22 億美元。今年年初，我們預計 Radian Guaranty 將在 2024 年全年向 Radian Group 支付 4 億至 5 億美元的普通股息。

Radian Guaranty continues to generate strong earnings and release contingency reserves in material amounts. As a result, Radian Guaranty has already paid $300 million of ordinary dividends in just the first half of the year.

Radian Guaranty 繼續產生強勁的收益並釋放大量應急儲備。因此，Radian Guaranty 僅在今年上半年就已支付了 3 億美元的普通股息。

I will briefly walk you through the mechanics of the ordinary dividend capacity at Radian Guaranty, which is also highlighted in slide 21 of our investor presentation. Ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty are paid from its statutory unassigned funds. Given Radian Guaranty's strong PMIERs position, we've been able to maximize our ordinary dividends paid in recent quarters, closely mirroring the previous quarter's ending unassigned funds balance subject to other statutory limitations. We expect to continue to maximize our ordinary distributions from Radian Guaranty in future periods as well.

我將簡要向您介紹 Radian Guaranty 的普通股息能力的機制，這在我們的投資者簡報的第 21 幻燈片中也得到了強調。Radian Guaranty 的普通股利是從其法定未分配資金中支付的。鑑於 Radian Guaranty 的 PMIER 地位強勁，我們能夠最大限度地提高最近幾季支付的普通股息，密切反映上一季末未分配資金餘額（受其他法定限制）。我們預計在未來時期也將繼續最大化 Radian Guaranty 的普通分配。

For the second quarter, the ending unassigned funds balance for Radian Guaranty was $186 million, providing us capacity to pay a dividend of approximately $185 million to Radian Group in the third quarter of this year, with another dividend expected in the fourth quarter. Statutory unassigned funds and therefore, future ordinary distributions will continue to be driven by Radian Guaranty's ongoing earnings as well as the contingency reserve release schedule shown on slide 22.

第二季度，Radian Guaranty 期末未分配資金餘額為 1.86 億美元，這使我們有能力在今年第三季向 Radian Group 支付約 1.85 億美元的股息，預計第四季將再次支付股息。因此，法定未分配資金以及未來的普通分配將繼續由 Radian Guaranty 的持續盈利以及幻燈片 22 所示的應急準備金釋放時間表驅動。

As Rick mentioned earlier, in June 2024, Radian Guaranty entered into a quota share reinsurance agreement with a panel of third-party reinsurance providers, consistent with our use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk. Under this 2024 QSR agreement, we expect to see 25% of new insurance written between July 1, 2024 and June 30, 2025, subject to certain conditions.

正如 Rick 之前提到的，2024 年 6 月，Radian Guaranty 與一組第三方再保險提供者簽訂了配額份額再保險協議，這與我們使用風險分配策略來有效管理資本和主動降低風險的做法一致。根據這份 2024 年 QSR 協議，我們預計在 2024 年 7 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日期間將有 25% 的新保險投保，但須滿足某些條件。

Moving to our holding company Radian Group. Yesterday, we announced the redemption of our 2024 senior notes in the amount of $450 million payable in September 2024. As described earlier this year, we expect this action will reduce our ongoing interest expense by approximately $20 million annually and reduce our debt-to-capital ratio to below 20%. Once complete, Radian will have no senior debt maturities due until 2027.

搬遷至我們的控股公司Radian Group。昨天，我們宣布贖回 2024 年 9 月應付的 4.5 億美元 2024 年優先票據。正如今年稍早所述，我們預計這項行動將使我們每年持續的利息支出減少約 2,000 萬美元，並將我們的債務與資本比率降至 20% 以下。完成後，Radian 在 2027 年之前將沒有到期的優先債務。

Additionally, in the second quarter, we increased our share repurchase program from $300 million to $900 million and extended the program to June 30, 2026. Within the quarter, we repurchased 1.6 million shares at a total cost of $50 million for an average price of $31.79 per share.

此外，在第二季度，我們將股票回購計畫從 3 億美元增加到 9 億美元，並將該計畫延長至 2026 年 6 月 30 日。本季內，我們回購了 160 萬股股票，總成本為 5,000 萬美元，平均價格為每股 31.79 美元。

As of the end of the second quarter, our current share repurchase authorization had $667 million remaining as demonstrated by this prior quarter's repurchase activity and our track record in recent years, we believe that share repurchase provides an attractive option to deploy our excess capital. Our available holding company liquidity increased to approximately $1.2 billion at the end of the second quarter. We also have an undrawn credit facility with borrowing capacity of $275 million providing us with significant financial flexibility.

截至第二季末，我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘6.67 億美元，從上一季的回購活動和我們近年來的業績記錄可以看出，我們相信股票回購為部署我們的過剩資本提供了一個有吸引力的選擇。第二季末，我們的控股公司可用流動資金增加至約 12 億美元。我們還擁有未提取的信貸額度，借款能力為 2.75 億美元，為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性。

I will now turn the call back over to Rick.

我現在將把電話轉回給里克。

Thank you, Sumita. Before we open the call to your questions, I want to highlight that our results for the second quarter continue to reflect the balance and resiliency of our company as well as the strength and flexibility of our capital and liquidity positions.

謝謝你，蘇田。在我們開始回答大家的問題之前，我想先強調一下，我們第二季的業績繼續反映了我們公司的平衡性和彈性，以及我們資本和流動性部位的實力和靈活性。

We expect the earnings and cash flows generated from our large in-force mortgage insurance and investment portfolios to allow us to continue operating from a position of strength and delivering value to our customers, policyholders and stockholders. We returned $87 million of capital to stockholders during the second quarter and approximately $360 million over the past year in the form of share repurchases and dividends.

我們預計，我們龐大的有效抵押貸款保險和投資組合所產生的收益和現金流將使我們能夠繼續保持強勢運營，並為我們的客戶、保單持有人和股東創造價值。我們在第二季向股東返還了 8,700 萬美元的資本，去年以股票回購和股息的形式向股東返還了約 3.6 億美元。

I also want to highlight our affordable housing efforts, specifically the MBA's Convergence Philadelphia that recently recognized its one-year anniversary. Radian is a cornerstone partner for this initiative, and the team continues to make progress on bringing together local housing stakeholders to help enable affordable and sustainable homeownership opportunities for historically underserved communities in Philadelphia.

我還想強調一下我們在經濟適用住房方面所做的努力，特別是 MBA 費城融合項目，該項目最近慶祝了其成立一周年。Radian 是該計劃的基石合作夥伴，該團隊在將當地住房利益相關者聚集在一起方面不斷取得進展，幫助為費城歷來服務不足的社區提供負擔得起且可持續的住房所有權機會。

And I want to recognize and thank our dedicated and experienced team for the outstanding work they do every day. As many of you know, this quarter, we transitioned the Investor Relations responsibilities to Dan Kobell, who has been a leader in financial planning and analysis at Radian for the past nine years and who also has responsibility for our investment portfolio management, treasury and capital management functions.

我要表揚並感謝我們敬業且經驗豐富的團隊每天所做的出色工作。正如你們許多人所知，本季度，我們將投資者關係職責移交給了Dan Kohell，他在過去九年裡一直是Radian 財務規劃和分析方面的領導者，還負責我們的投資組合管理、財務和資本管理職能。

I want to personally thank John Damian for the great work he has done over the past several years leading Investor Relations as he takes on leadership of the financial planning and analysis function, while continuing to lead our corporate development efforts.

我個人要感謝約翰·達米安 (John Damian) 在過去幾年領導投資者關係方面所做的出色工作，他在領導財務規劃和分析職能的同時，繼續領導我們的企業發展工作。

And now, operator, we would be happy to take questions.

現在，接線員，我們很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bose George, KBW.

（操作員說明）Bose George，KBW。

Good afternoon. I wanted to ask first just about the share count. It went down by less than the buybacks. Is the difference the share grant to the employees? Or just one is the roll forward of the share count?

午安.我想先問一下份額數。它的跌幅小於回購。差額是授予員工的股份嗎？或只是份額計數的前滾之一？

Yes, hi. Bose, this is Rick. I think Sumita and I can tag team this one. I think it's all related to probably the LTI program that's offset by the share buybacks.

是的，嗨。博斯，這是瑞克。我想我和 Sumita 可以為這支球隊打上標籤。我認為這可能與 LTI 計劃有關，該計劃被股票回購所抵消。

And then like in prior quarters, I haven't noticed that is that because that occurred last year as well when there were no buybacks, right? And the share count didn't go down, is that --?

然後就像前幾季一樣，我沒有註意到這是因為去年也發生過這種情況，當時沒有回購，對嗎？而且股票數量並沒有減少，是嗎？——？

It should be a second quarter.

應該是第二季。

Yes. I think it usually, you see the impact of that the most in the second quarter. In fact, we referenced that in our prepared remarks that you see the expense higher in Q2. And I think you see that impact almost every year in the second quarter.

是的。我認為通常情況下，你會在第二季度看到最大的影響。事實上，我們在準備好的評論中提到，您認為第二季的費用更高。我認為您幾乎每年第二季都會看到這種影響。

Okay, great. And then actually switching over just to the conduit. Just actually from an accounting standpoint going forward, as you securitize it, are you going to consolidate these? I mean, will we see this on your balance sheet? Or is that a separate vehicle and we don't need to worry about it?

好的，太好了。然後實際上只切換到導管。實際上，從會計的角度來看，當你將其證券化時，你會合併這些嗎？我的意思是，我們會在您的資產負債表上看到這一點嗎？或者這是一個單獨的車輛，我們不需要擔心它？

Yes. I think it's a really good question. I think we are looking at all of our accounting options as we look at the business. I think we'll be giving you more disclosure on this starting next quarter, Bose. I think that a lot of that depends on how the accounting treatment is driven depending on how much securities are retained in the structure. So we are in the process of evaluating it, and we will be providing more disclosure to you starting from next quarter.

是的。我認為這是一個非常好的問題。我認為我們在審視業務時正在審視所有的會計選項。Bose，我想我們將從下個季度開始向您提供更多相關資訊。我認為這在很大程度上取決於會計處理的驅動方式，這取決於結構中保留了多少證券。因此，我們正在評估它，我們將從下個季度開始向您提供更多資訊。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Given your comments around the dividend capacity from the operating company, how are you thinking about what is the right amount of liquidity to be holding at the parent company? And how are you thinking about uses of that liquidity?

謝謝。鑑於您對營運公司的股息能力的評論，您如何考慮母公司持有多少流動性才合適？您如何考慮如何使用這種流動性？

So I think as we mentioned, there was significant dividends that have been paid off from Radian Guaranty to Group already this year. It amounted to about $300 million, and we expect to exceed the initial guidance that we gave you at the beginning of the year, which was $400 million to $500 million from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group.

因此，我認為正如我們所提到的，Radian Guaranty 今年已經向集團支付了大量股息。金額約 3 億美元，我們預計將超過年初給大家的初步指導，即 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 提供的 4 億至 5 億美元。

If you look at our holding company today, we have about $1.2 billion of holdco liquidity, we are going to use about $450 million of that liquidity to pay down our 2024 maturities. We also expect to obviously pay our dividends, which is about $150 million each year. So that should -- we have another two quarters of that, that we will pay out. And then there are ongoing, I would say, capital investments that we will continue to make in some of our businesses.

如果你看看我們今天的控股公司，我們擁有約 12 億美元的控股公司流動性，我們將使用其中約 4.5 億美元的流動性來償還 2024 年的到期債務。我們也預計每年支付約 1.5 億美元的股息。所以我們應該還有另外兩季的資金來支付。我想說的是，我們將繼續對我們的一些業務進行資本投資。

I think Rick mentioned RMC as an example of that. So I think at the end of the year, you should expect our holdco to still have about $950 million to $1 billion of liquidity. It is more than what we really need to run the business. We have said that we are holding some excess liquidity in the holdco. Having said that, we will continue to be really disciplined about returning capital back.

我認為 Rick 提到的 RMC 就是一個例子。因此，我認為到今年年底，您應該預期我們的控股公司仍擁有約 9.5 億至 10 億美元的流動性。這超出了我們經營業務的真正需求。我們已經說過，我們在控股公司中持有一些過剩的流動性。話雖如此，我們將繼續嚴格遵守資本返還的規定。

We returned about $50 million through share repurchases this quarter. We've continued to buy back shares even in Q3. And so you should expect that we will continue to be disciplined about giving back that capital both in the form of share repurchases and dividends. But at the end of the year, I would say holdco liquidity should be in that $950 million to $1 billion range before the share repurchases that I walked you through right now.

本季我們透過股票回購返還了約 5,000 萬美元。即使在第三季度，我們也繼續回購股票。因此，您應該期望我們將繼續嚴格以股票回購和股利的形式回饋資本。但到今年年底，我想說，在我現在向您介紹的股票回購之前，控股公司的流動性應該在 9.5 億至 10 億美元之間。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Soham Bhonsle, BTIG.

Soham Bhonsle，BTIG。

Good afternoon. Soham Bhonsle right here. Hope you're all doing well. Derek, maybe first one for you on credit. Look, I think the environment remains constructive for mortgage overall, but there does seem to be an overall slowing in the U.S. consumer. If you just look at consumer spend and unemployment has been ticking up just slightly more recently, right? So maybe just talk about if you're seeing any yellow signs and if you're reflecting any of that in the way you position the portfolio?

午安.索漢姆·邦斯勒就在這裡。希望你們一切都好。德瑞克，也許是你的第一個賒帳。看，我認為整體抵押貸款環境仍然具有建設性，但美國消費者似乎整體放緩。如果你只看消費者支出，失業率最近略有上升，對吧？因此，也許只是談談您是否看到任何黃色跡象，以及您是否在投資組合定位方式中反映了其中的任何情況？

Sure. I think in terms of yellow signs, what we're seeing initially is, really, on the much lower end of the credit outside the space we play in. And so you see some, I would say, pressure in terms of lower credit quality. So we're talking lower FICOs like in the 500s and below 600s. So it's not a space we play in.

當然。我認為就黃色標誌而言，我們最初看到的實際上是在我們所玩的空間之外的信用值的低端。所以我想說，你會看到信用品質較低方面的一些壓力。所以我們談論的是較低的 FICO，例如 500 多美元和 600 多美元以下。所以這不是我們玩耍的空間。

We watch that closely. We do expect unemployment to tick up a bit and for home prices, the rate of appreciation to come down. We're pricing that in. That's factored into all of our scenarios.

我們密切關注這一點。我們確實預期失業率會略有上升，而房價的升值率會下降。我們正在定價。這是我們所有場景中考慮的因素。

So I would say, right now playing out as expected and better than what I would have thought a year ago given where we were from an interest rate hiking scenario. So in terms of playing out from a macro and how it's translated into credit, I would say, it's been more positive than I would have expected a year ago.

所以我想說，考慮到我們所處的升息情景，現在的情況正如預期的那樣，比我一年前的想像要好。因此，就宏觀效果及其如何轉化為信貸而言，我想說，這比我一年前的預期更為積極。

Okay. Great. And then on expenses, Sumita, So this quarter, you saw the increase, of course, from the LTI, the bonuses and things like that. But as we think of the back half of the year, where should we think about that normalizing and then ex items? And then how should we think about including the $20 million run rate that you mentioned?

好的。偉大的。然後在費用方面，Sumita，所以這個季度，您當然看到了 LTI、獎金等方面的成長。但當我們想到下半年時，我們應該在哪裡考慮正常化和除舊項目？那麼我們應該如何考慮將您提到的 2000 萬美元運行率納入其中呢？

Yes. So I think just going back to where we started, I mean if I were to remind you of our last year expense initiatives, we had taken out about $77 million of expenses from our operating expenses and cost of services. We've continued to be really disciplined. And we have been looking at other avenues to bring down that cost base further. I think as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I think we've continued to take out expenses and some of that is flowing through our Q2 line item in severance.

是的。因此，我想回到我們開始的地方，我的意思是，如果我要提醒您我們去年的支出計劃，我們已經從營運支出和服務成本中扣除了約 7700 萬美元的支出。我們繼續嚴守紀律。我們一直在尋找其他途徑來進一步降低成本基礎。我認為正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我認為我們繼續支出費用，其中一些費用通過我們第二季度的遣散費項目流動。

The $20 million is -- $20 million to $25 million run rate reduction that I spoke about is really, I would say, run rate from 2025. Some of that you may see in the back half of this year, so expect the $348 million that we had as the operating expense line-item last year to come down a little bit this year and to come down by about $20 million to $25 million by next year. And so for the second half of the year, we have not given a specific number, but I think you can probably estimate it and make an assumption of what that would be like for the second half of the year.

我所說的 2000 萬美元的運行率減少了 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元，我想說的是，從 2025 年開始的運行率。其中一些您可能會在今年下半年看到，因此預計我們去年的營運費用項目 3.48 億美元今年會略有下降，大約下降 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元到明年。所以對於下半年，我們沒有給出具體的數字，但我想你大概可以估計一下，並對下半年的情況做出假設。

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

好的，完美。謝謝。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Rick Thornberry for closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想請 Rick Thornberry 做結語。

Thank you, and I appreciate everybody participating and joining us today. And I want to just reemphasize that thanks to our employees as they've been continuing to navigate the marketplace over the last few years and continue to do a great job. But appreciate everybody's interest in Radian, and we look forward to meeting and talking to you all soon. So thank you and have a great day.

謝謝大家，我感謝今天大家的參與和加入。我想再次強調，這要感謝我們的員工，他們在過去幾年中一直在市場中不斷前行，並繼續做得很好。但感謝大家對 Radian 的興趣，我們期待很快與大家見面並交談。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。