Radian Group Inc (RDN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the first-quarter 2025 Radian Group conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Radian Group 2025 年第一季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dan Kobell, Head of Investor Relations and Capital Management. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係和資本管理主管 Dan Kobell。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Radian's first-quarter 2025 conference call. Our press release, which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter, was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website at radian.com.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Radian 2025 年第一季電話會議。我們的新聞稿包含 Radian 本季的財務業績，於昨天晚上發布，並發佈在我們的網站 radian.com 的投資者部分。

This press release includes certain non-GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call including adjusted pretax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share, and adjusted net operating return on equity. A complete description of all of our non-GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website.

本新聞稿包含一些可能在今天的電話會議上討論的非公認會計準則指標，包括調整後的稅前營業收入、調整後的每股稀釋淨營業收入和調整後的淨營業股本回報率。我們所有非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的完整描述可在新聞稿附件 F 中找到，而這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳可在新聞稿附件 G 中找到。這些附件位於我們網站的「投資者」部分。

Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer; and Sumita Pandit, President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天，您將聽到 Radian 執行長 Rick Thornberry 和總裁兼財務長 Sumita Pandit 的演講。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於目前的預期、估計、預測和假設，受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。

For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our 2024 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website.

有關這些風險的討論，請查看我們收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警示聲明以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2024 年 10-K 表格和後續報告中包含的風險因素。這些也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Rick.

現在我想把電話轉給里克。

Good morning and thank you all for joining us today. I am pleased to report a strong start to the year for Radian. Our results demonstrate the continued strength of our high-quality mortgage insurance in-force portfolio as well as our ongoing strategic focus on capital and expense management.

早安，感謝大家今天的參加。我很高興地向大家報告，Radian 今年取得了良好的開端。我們的業績證明了我們高品質的抵押貸款保險有效組合的持續強勁，以及我們對資本和費用管理的持續策略重點。

I will start by sharing a few financial and business highlights. We increased book value per share by 11% year over year, generating net income of $145 million in the first quarter and delivering a return on equity of 12.6%.

我將首先分享一些財務和商業亮點。我們的每股帳面價值年增 11%，第一季淨收入為 1.45 億美元，股本回報率為 12.6%。

Our primary mortgage insurance in force, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company, ended the quarter at $274 million. Our insurance in force benefited from the 86% persistency rate in the first quarter, driven by continued elevated interest rates, which remains significantly higher than the majority of the prevailing mortgage rates in our insured portfolio.

我們的主要抵押貸款保險有效，這是我們公司未來盈利的主要驅動力，本季結束時保險金額為 2.74 億美元。受利率持續上升的推動，我們的有效保險在第一季受益於 86% 的繼續率，該利率仍然遠高於我們承保組合中大多數現行抵押貸款利率。

Our portfolio continued to show positive trends in terms of new defaults and cures consistent with our expectations for seasonality and resulting in a decline in our default rate. We continue to strategically manage capital by maintaining strong holding company liquidity of $834 million and a PMIERs cushion for Radian Guaranty of $2.1 billion as of the end of the quarter, while expecting to continue to pay distributions from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group and paying the highest yielding dividend in the industry to stockholders.

我們的投資組合在新的違約和補救方面繼續呈現積極趨勢，這與我們對季節性的預期一致，並導致我們的違約率下降。我們繼續策略性地管理資本，維持強大的控股公司流動性（截至本季末為 8.34 億美元）和 Radian Guaranty 的 21 億美元 PMIER 緩衝，同時預計將繼續從 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 支付分配，並向股東支付業內最高收益的股息。

During the quarter, we took advantage of market volatility, repurchasing $207 million of shares, representing more than 4% of shares outstanding, with a total return of capital to stockholders, including dividends, up $244 million. Consistent with our strong track record of capital return at Radian, we continue to view share repurchases as an attractive use of capital, further enhanced by our continued positive outlook for our business. Sumita will provide additional detail on our repurchase activity and plans.

在本季度，我們利用市場波動，回購了價值 2.07 億美元的股票，佔流通股的 4% 以上，包括股息在內的股東總資本回報高達 2.44 億美元。與 Radian 強勁的資本回報記錄一致，我們繼續將股票回購視為一種有吸引力的資本用途，而我們對業務的持續樂觀前景進一步增強了這一優勢。Sumita 將提供有關我們的回購活動和計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Consistent with our use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk, in April, Radian Guaranty agreed to very attractive terms on an innovative multiyear quota share reinsurance structure with a large and diversified panel of third-party reinsurance providers.

為與我們使用風險分配策略來有效管理資本和主動降低風險保持一致，今年 4 月，Radian Guaranty 與一個龐大而多元化的第三方再保險提供商小組就創新的多年期配額再保險結構達成了非常有吸引力的條款。

We appreciate the support and commitment that our growing group of reinsurance partners demonstrated to achieve this market-leading structure. We believe the results reflect the quality of our mortgage insurance business, leveraging our proprietary data and analytics, combined with our talented and experienced team and high-quality customer relationships. Sumita will provide more details in a few minutes.

我們感謝不斷壯大的再保險合作夥伴為實現這一市場領先結構所展現的支持和承諾。我們相信，結果反映了我們的抵押貸款保險業務的質量，利用我們的專有數據和分析，結合我們才華橫溢、經驗豐富的團隊和高品質的客戶關係。Sumita 將在幾分鐘內提供更多詳細資訊。

We continued our focus on managing operational efficiency, reducing our other operating expenses by 7% year over year and 12% from the fourth quarter of 2024. We remain positioned to achieve our targeted reduction in run rate operating expenses this year. We are pleased that our strong financial position and capital flexibility allow us to deliver excellent financial results and help our customers transform risk into opportunity while also returning value to our stockholders.

我們持續專注於管理營運效率，其他營運費用年減 7%，較 2024 年第四季減少 12%。我們仍有望實現今年降低營運費用的目標。我們很高興，我們強大的財務狀況和資本靈活性使我們能夠提供出色的財務業績，並幫助我們的客戶將風險轉化為機遇，同時也為我們的股東帶來價值。

In terms of the housing and mortgage market, we expect that the ongoing supply shortage, combined with pent-up demand from first-time homebuyers, will continue to provide support for home values. The private mortgage insurance market has been relatively flat over the past two years at approximately $300 billion.

就房屋和抵押貸款市場而言，我們預計持續的供應短缺，加上首次購房者的被壓抑的需求，將繼續為房屋價值提供支撐。私人抵押貸款保險市場在過去兩年中相對平穩，約 3000 億美元。

Looking ahead, based on recent industry forecasts, we expect a market in 2025 that is in line with recent years. I believe it's also worth noting the continuing positive impact that we're experiencing from the current interest rate environment in terms of supporting our investment portfolio income and a higher persistency rate for our insurance in force.

展望未來，根據最近的行業預測，我們預計 2025 年的市場將與近年來保持一致。我認為，也值得注意的是，目前的利率環境對我們投資組合收入和有效保險的更高持續率產生了持續的正面影響。

As I mentioned, the credit performance of our portfolios continue to be strong. And in April, our default inventory continued to decline with cures exceeding new defaults. However, given the recent volatility in the financial markets resulting specifically from the uncertainties from tariff and global trade policies, we continue to closely monitor the impact on our business, including any changes to unemployment or other trends that may impact the credit environment.

正如我所提到的，我們的投資組合的信用表現持續強勁。四月份，我們的違約庫存持續下降，治癒數量超過新增違約數量。然而，鑑於近期金融市場的波動，特別是由於關稅和全球貿易政策的不確定性，我們將繼續密切關注其對我們業務的影響，包括失業率或其他可能影響信貸環境的趨勢的變化。

Overall, our outlook for the housing market and our Mortgage Insurance business remained positive. Finally, as we work with the new administration, we continue to be encouraged by the bipartisan support on Capitol Hill for our industry as the only source of permanent private capital in front of US taxpayers, consistently underwriting mortgage credit risk through the market cycles.

總體而言，我們對房地產市場和抵押貸款保險業務的前景仍然樂觀。最後，在我們與新政府合作的過程中，我們繼續受到國會山兩黨對我們行業的支持的鼓舞，認為它是美國納稅人面前唯一的永久私人資本來源，在整個市場週期中持續承保抵押貸款信用風險。

Our private mortgage insurance products helps to alleviate one of the largest hurdles to homeownership, overcoming the financial burden of a downpayment. In fact, our industry has helped millions of homeowners to purchase their home or refinance a mortgage and is well positioned to continue promoting affordable, sustainable homeownership through various economic cycles. We believe this is well understood by in an alignment with the FHFA, GSEs, and legislators.

我們的私人抵押貸款保險產品有助於緩解購屋的最大障礙之一，即克服首付的財務負擔。事實上，我們的行業已經幫助數百萬房主購買房屋或再融資抵押貸款，並且有能力在各種經濟週期中繼續促進可負擔的、可持續的房屋所有權。我們相信，透過與聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA)、政府支持企業 (GSE) 和立法者保持一致，人們能夠很好地理解這一點。

As you've heard me say before, our mortgage insurance business model has been significantly strengthened by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk-based pricing, and the distribution of risk, allowing our industry to continuously serve our important role in the housing finance system. Sumita will now cover the details of our financial and capital positions.

正如您之前聽我說過的那樣，我們的抵押貸款保險業務模式已經透過 PMIER 的資本框架、基於風險的動態定價和風險分配得到了顯著加強，使我們的行業能夠繼續在住房金融體系中發揮重要作用。Sumita 現在將介紹我們的財務和資本狀況的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Rick, and good morning to you all. We started the year with another strong quarter of operating results, producing net income of $145 million or $0.98 per diluted share, consistent with the $0.98 per diluted share reported in the fourth quarter 2024.

謝謝你，里克，大家早安。我們以另一個強勁的季度經營業績開啟了新的一年，淨收入為 1.45 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.98 美元，與 2024 年第四季報告的每股攤薄收益 0.98 美元一致。

Adjusted diluted net operating income per share was slightly higher at $0.99 for the first quarter compared to $1.08 in the previous quarter. We generated a return on equity of 12.6%, reflecting the strong fundamentals of our business and grew book value per share 11% year over year to $32.48. This book value per share growth is in addition to our regular stockholder dividends, which were $37 million during the quarter. We also repurchased $207 million of shares during the first quarter, demonstrating our commitment to returning excess capital.

第一季調整後每股攤薄營業收入略高於 0.99 美元，為上一季的 1.08 美元。我們的股本回報率達到12.6%，這反映了我們強勁的業務基本面，每股帳面價值年增11%，達到32.48美元。每股帳面價值的成長是在我們常規股東股利（本季為3700萬美元）的基礎上實現的。我們也在第一季回購了價值 2.07 億美元的股票，顯示了我們返還過剩資本的承諾。

Turning now to the detailed drivers of our results. Our revenues continued to be strong in the first quarter. We generated $318 million of total revenues during the quarter, a slight increase from the fourth quarter of last year. Slides 10 through 12 in our presentation include details on our mortgage insurance in-force portfolio as well as other key factors impacting our net premiums earned. We generated $234 million in net premiums earned in the quarter, consistent with the prior quarter.

現在來談談我們結果的詳細驅動因素。我們第一季的營收持續保持強勁。本季我們的總營收為 3.18 億美元，較去年第四季略有成長。我們簡報中的第 10 至 12 張投影片詳細介紹了我們的抵押貸款保險有效組合以及其他影響我們淨保費收入的關鍵因素。本季我們產生的淨保費收入為 2.34 億美元，與上一季持平。

Our large high-quality primary mortgage insurance in-force portfolio grew year over year to $274 billion as of the end of the first quarter. We wrote $9.5 billion of new insurance written in the first quarter of 2025, which was lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to a smaller origination market. As interest rates remain elevated, they also continue to benefit the persistency rate of our existing insurance in force, which highlights the balance and resiliency of our business model.

截至第一季末，我們龐大的高品質主要抵押貸款保險有效投資組合年增至 2,740 億美元。我們在 2025 年第一季簽發了 95 億美元的新保險，與 2024 年第四季相比有所下降，這主要是由於發起市場規模較小。隨著利率持續走高，我們現有保險的持續率也持續受益，凸顯了我們商業模式的平衡和彈性。

As shown on slide 10, our persistency rate increased to 86% this quarter, which was the second highest rate we observed in over 10 years. We remain focused on writing NIW that we believe will generate future earnings and economic value while effectively maintaining the portfolio's health, balance, and profitability.

如投影片 10 所示，本季我們的堅持率上升至 86%，這是我們 10 多年來觀察到的第二高堅持率。我們仍然專注於編寫我們認為將產生未來收益和經濟價值的 NIW，同時有效地維持投資組合的健康、平衡和盈利能力。

As of the end of the first quarter, approximately two-thirds of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 6% or less. Given current mortgage interest rates, these policies are less likely to cancel due to refinancing in the near term, and we, therefore, continue to expect our persistency rate to remain strong.

截至第一季末，我們約三分之二的有效保險的抵押貸款利率為 6% 或更低。鑑於目前的抵押貸款利率，這些政策不太可能因為短期內的再融資而取消，因此我們繼續預計我們的持續率將保持強勁。

As shown on slide 12, the in-force premium yield for our mortgage insurance portfolio remained stable as expected at 38 basis points. And we expect the in-force premium yield to remain generally stable for the remainder of the year as well.

如投影片 12 所示，我們的房貸保險組合的有效保費收益率保持穩定，符合預期，為 38 個基點。我們預計今年剩餘時間內有效保費殖利率也將維持基本穩定。

As shown on slide 13, our investment portfolio of $6.3 billion consists of well-diversified, highly rated securities and other high-quality assets. We generated net investment income of $69 million in the first quarter. Included in this net investment income was $6 million of income related to residential mortgage loans held for sale within Radian Mortgage Capital. Compared to prior quarter, the decline in net investment income is primarily driven by lower mortgage loans held for sale.

如投影片 13 所示，我們的 63 億美元投資組合由多元化、高評級的證券和其他優質資產組成。我們第一季的淨投資收益為 6,900 萬美元。該淨投資收入中包括與 Radian Mortgage Capital 內部持有待售住宅抵押貸款相關的 600 萬美元收入。與上一季相比，淨投資收入的下降主要是由於持有待售抵押貸款減少所致。

Our unrealized net loss on investments reflected in stockholders' equity was $295 million at quarter end. We continue to expect that our strong liquidity and cash flow position will provide us with the ability to hold these securities to recovery of the remaining unrealized losses, which would equate to $2.09 that is expected to accrete back into our book value per share over time.

截至本季末，股東權益中反映的未實現投資淨損失為 2.95 億美元。我們繼續預計，我們強大的流動性和現金流狀況將使我們能夠持有這些證券，以彌補剩餘的未實現損失，這相當於 2.09 美元，預計將隨著時間的推移重新累積到我們的每股帳面價值中。

I will now move on to our provision for losses and related credit trends, which continue to be positive with strong cure activity and very low claim levels.

現在我將談談我們的損失準備金和相關信貸趨勢，這些趨勢繼續保持積極態勢，治療活動強勁，索賠水平非常低。

On slide 16, we provide trends for our primary default inventory. Total defaults decreased to approximately 23,000 loans at quarter end, resulting in a portfolio default rate of 2.33% compared to 2.44% in the previous quarter. The number of new defaults reported to us by services declined to approximately 12,500 in the first quarter compared to approximately 14,000 reported in the fourth quarter, a decline of 10%. This quarterly decline in new defaults reflects typical seasonal trends as well as lower defaults in areas associated with Hurricane Celine and Milton.

在投影片 16 上，我們提供了主要預設庫存的趨勢。季度末，違約貸款總數減少至約 23,000 筆，導致組合違約率為 2.33%，而上一季為 2.44%。第一季度，服務部門向我們報告的新違約數量下降至約 12,500 起，而第四季度報告的數量約為 14,000 起，下降了 10%。本季新違約數量的下降反映了典型的季節性趨勢，以及受颶風席琳和米爾頓影響地區的違約數量減少。

Excluding those hurricane-impacted areas, new defaults still declined by 7% in the first quarter compared to prior quarter. It is important to note that our new defaults continue to contain significant embedded equity, which has been a key driver of recent favorable trends, including higher cure rates and reduced severity for policies that result in claims submission.

除掉受颶風影響的地區，第一季新增違約數量與上一季相比仍下降了 7%。值得注意的是，我們的新違約保險仍包含大量嵌入權益，這是近期有利趨勢的主要驅動因素，包括更高的治癒率和導致索賠的保單嚴重程度的降低。

In addition, the total number of cures in the first quarter grew 13% compared to the fourth quarter. Cure rates continue to be really strong with cure rates for February and March 2025 among the five highest months we have observed in at least 10 years. Our loss ratio remained low with a net expense of $15 million in our mortgage insurance provision for losses in the first quarter compared to a de minimis amount in the fourth quarter.

此外，第一季治癒總人數較第四季成長了13%。治癒率持續保持強勁，2025 年 2 月和 3 月的治癒率是我們至少 10 年來觀察到的最高五個月份之一。我們的損失率仍然很低，第一季抵押貸款保險損失準備金的淨支出為 1500 萬美元，而第四季度的金額則處於最低水平。

Let's turn to slide 18. As mentioned last quarter, we reduced our initial default to claim rate to 7.5% and maintained that rate in the first quarter, which resulted in $54 million of loss provision for new defaults. Positive reserve development on prior-period defaults of $39 million partially offset this provision for new defaults.

讓我們翻到第 18 張投影片。正如上個季度所提到的，我們將初始違約索賠率降低至 7.5%，並在第一季度維持了該比率，從而為新的違約事件提列了 5,400 萬美元的損失準備金。前期違約的 3,900 萬美元正準備金發展部分抵消了新違約的準備金。

As shown on slide 17, our cure trends have been very consistent and positive in recent periods. With approximately 90% of defaults curing within four quarters and 98% curing within 12 quarters, meaningfully exceeding our initial default to claim expectation, which anticipated approximately a 92% cure rate. Cure rates in the first quarter exhibited typical seasonal trends and compare favorably to similar periods for prior years.

如投影片 17 所示，近期我們的治癒趨勢非常一致且正面。約 90% 的違約情況在四個季度內得到解決，98% 的違約情況在 12 個季度內得到解決，這大大超出了我們最初的違約索賠預期，該預期的解決率約為 92%。第一季的治癒率呈現典型的季節性趨勢，與前幾年同期相比有所改善。

Moving to our other business lines. Total revenue in our all-other category were $36 million in the first quarter, an increase compared to $34 million in the fourth quarter. The adjusted pretax operating loss for all other was approximately $3.5 million in the first quarter.

轉向我們的其他業務線。我們第一季所有其他類別的總收入為 3,600 萬美元，與第四季度的 3,400 萬美元相比有所增長。第一季其他所有業務調整後的稅前營業虧損約為 350 萬美元。

Now turning to our other expenses. For the first quarter, our other operating expenses totaled $77 million, a 12% decrease from prior quarter. Operating expenses were in line with our expectations as communicated last quarter. As a reminder, for 2025, we expect operating expenses of $320 million, or to average, $80 million per quarter. While we continue to actively manage our operating expenses and seek opportunities for additional efficiencies, it is important to note that expenses can fluctuate from quarter to quarter due to changes in items such as variable incentive compensation and investments in strategic growth initiatives.

現在談談我們的其他開支。第一季度，我們的其他營運費用總計 7,700 萬美元，比上一季減少 12%。正如上個季度所傳達的，營運費用符合我們的預期。提醒一下，到 2025 年，我們預計營運費用為 3.2 億美元，即平均每季 8,000 萬美元。雖然我們繼續積極管理營運費用並尋求提高效率的機會，但值得注意的是，由於可變激勵薪酬和策略性成長計畫投資等項目的變化，費用可能會在每季之間波動。

Moving to our capital, available liquidity, and related strategic actions. Radian Guaranty's financial position remains strong. We paid a $200 million distribution to Radian Group in the first quarter while maintaining a stable PMIERs cushion of $2.1 billion. As highlighted on slide 21, Radian sought and received approval from the Pennsylvania Insurance Department to treat the $200 million distribution paid in the first quarter as a return of capital rather than an ordinary dividend.

轉向我們的資本、可用流動性和相關策略行動。Radian Guaranty 的財務狀況依然強勁。我們在第一季向 Radian Group 支付了 2 億美元的分配，同時保持了 21 億美元的穩定 PMIER 緩衝。正如第 21 張幻燈片所強調的，Radian 尋求並獲得了賓州保險部門的批准，將第一季支付的 2 億美元分配視為資本回報，而不是普通股息。

As a result, Radian Guaranty's common stock and paid-in surplus balance reduced from $500 million to $300 million during the quarter, while its positive unassigned surplus grew to $408 million, strengthening Radian Guaranty's ability to pay additional ordinary dividends in the future.

結果，Radian Guaranty 的普通股和實收盈餘餘額在本季度從 5 億美元減少到 3 億美元，而其未分配盈餘則增長至 4.08 億美元，增強了 Radian Guaranty 未來支付額外普通股股息的能力。

We expect that Radian Guaranty will pay up to $795 million of total distributions to Radian Group in 2025, in line with its 2024 statutory net income. This $795 million of total capital return includes both this first-quarter distribution and expected future ordinary dividends over the remainder of the year.

我們預計，Radian Guaranty 將在 2025 年向 Radian Group 支付高達 7.95 億美元的總分配，與其 2024 年的法定淨收入一致。這 7.95 億美元的總資本回報包括第一季的分配以及今年剩餘時間預期的未來普通股利。

Moving to our holding company, Radian Group. Within the quarter, we repurchased 6.5 million shares of our common stock at a total cost of $207 million for an average price paid of $32.07. In addition, we returned $37 million in shareholder dividends for a total of $244 million of capital returned in the quarter. As of the end of the first quarter, we had $336 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization. As demonstrated by repurchase activity in the quarter, our expectation for a similar level of repurchase volume in the second quarter and our track record in recent years, we continue to believe that share repurchase provides an attractive option to deploy our excess capital.

前往我們的控股公司 Radian Group。本季度，我們回購了650萬股普通股，總成本為2.07億美元，平均回購價格為32.07美元。此外，我們也向股東派發了3,700萬美元的股息，本季的資本返還總額為2.44億美元。截至第一季末，我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘金額為 3.36 億美元。正如本季度的回購活動所表明的那樣，我們對第二季度回購量達到類似水平的預期以及我們近年來的業績記錄，我們仍然相信股票回購為部署我們的過剩資本提供了一個有吸引力的選擇。

Our available holding company liquidity was $834 million at the end of the first quarter. The decline in liquidity this quarter of approximately $50 million was due to higher share repurchases, which we believe was an attractive use of a portion of our excess liquidity. We also have a credit facility with borrowing capacity of $275 million, providing us with additional financial flexibility for short-term cash management, including activity in support of our capital return opportunities.

第一季末，我們可用的控股公司流動資金為 8.34 億美元。本季流動性下降約 5,000 萬美元，原因是股票回購增加，我們認為這是對部分過剩流動性的一種有吸引力的利用方式。我們還擁有借貸能力為 2.75 億美元的信貸額度，為我們的短期現金管理提供了額外的財務靈活性，包括支持我們的資本回報機會的活動。

In April 2025, consistent with our use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk, Radian Guaranty agreed to a multiyear quota share reinsurance arrangement with a panel of third-party reinsurance providers. We are very pleased with these transactions, which further mitigate the tail risk of our portfolio and provide efficient PMIERs capital relief at a low cost of capital.

2025 年 4 月，為了與我們使用風險分配策略有效管理資本和主動降低風險保持一致，Radian Guaranty 同意與第三方再保險提供者小組達成多年期配額再保險協議。我們對這些交易感到非常滿意，它們進一步降低了我們投資組合的尾部風險，並以較低的資本成本為 PMIER 提供了高效的資本減免。

The market demand for mortgage insurance risk is strong as evidenced by the attractive terms we secured and the expansive group of over 20 highly rated reinsurers that are party to the arrangement, nine of which are new to Radian. Further, securing quota share coverage on our new production through June 30, 2028, provides us with both a high certainty of coverage as well as significant flexibility. We believe we are very well positioned to continue effectively managing our PMIERs position at Radian Guaranty from a position of strength.

抵押貸款保險風險的市場需求強勁，這一點從我們獲得的優惠條款以及參與該協議的 20 多家高評級再保險公司（其中 9 家是 Radian 的新成員）的龐大群體中可以看出。此外，確保我們的新產品在 2028 年 6 月 30 日之前獲得配額份額覆蓋，為我們提供了高度確定性的覆蓋範圍以及極大的靈活性。我們相信，我們完全有能力繼續以優勢地位有效地管理我們在 Radian Guaranty 的 PMIER 職位。

I will now turn the call back over to Rick.

我現在將電話轉回給里克。

Thank you, Sumita. Our results in the quarter continue to reflect the balance and resiliency of our company as well as the strength and flexibility of our capital and liquidity positions. We expect the earnings and cash flows generated from our large in-force mortgage insurance and investment portfolios to allow us to continue operating from a position of strength and delivering value to our customers, policyholders, and stockholders.

謝謝你，Sumita。本季的業績持續反映了我們公司的平衡性和彈性，以及我們資本和流動性狀況的實力和靈活性。我們預計，我們龐大的有效抵押貸款保險和投資組合所產生的收益和現金流將使我們能夠繼續保持強勁運營，並為我們的客戶、保單持有人和股東創造價值。

We believe our active management of capital through our share repurchases and dividends as well as our overall leverage reflects the strength and health of our financial position. We continue our focus on managing operational efficiency and remain on track to achieve our targeted reduction in run rate operating expenses this year.

我們相信，透過股票回購和股息以及整體槓桿對資本的積極管理反映了我們財務狀況的強勁和健康。我們將繼續專注於管理營運效率，並將繼續努力實現今年降低營運費用的目標。

And finally, I want to recognize and thank our dedicated and experienced team at Radian for the outstanding work they do every day. And now operator, we would be happy to take questions.

最後，我要認可並感謝 Radian 敬業且經驗豐富的團隊每天所做的出色工作。現在接線員，我們很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Terry Ma, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的 Terry Ma。

Maybe just to start off with credit. Last quarter, you indicated you're nearing a peak for some of the larger [vintages] seasoning and expect default rate to kind of shake out in the sub-3% range unless the macro changes. So just given all the uncertainty we have, I'm just curious, what are your kind of updated thoughts on kind of credit loss expectations and anything you can kind of do on the pricing or underwriting side should the macro weaken?

也許只是從信用開始。上個季度，您曾表示，一些較大的 [vintage] 葡萄酒的銷售已接近頂峰，並且預計除非宏觀因素發生變化，否則違約率將在 3% 以下的範圍內波動。因此，考慮到我們所面臨的所有不確定性，我很好奇，您對信用損失預期有什麼最新看法？如果宏觀經濟疲軟，您在定價或承保方面可以做些什麼？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Terry. So I think as we have given you prior guidance, I would say where we are today, we continue to see really strong performance in terms of our cure trends. If you look at our default rate this quarter, it was actually a little lower than the fourth quarter of last year. We went down from 2.44% to about 2.33% as our default rate.

是的。謝謝你的提問，特里。因此，我認為，正如我們之前給予您的指導一樣，我想說，就我們今天的情況而言，我們在治療趨勢方面繼續看到非常強勁的表現。如果你看看我們本季的違約率，它實際上比去年第四季略低。我們的違約率從 2.44% 下降到 2.33% 左右。

In fact, for this quarter, our cures actually were higher than our new defaults. And so we continue to see really strong, I would say, both default and cure trend performance and in line with our expectations. I think as far as our expectation for through-the-cycle default rates is concerned, I think we still remain in that sub-3% range. We don't expect to be really too different from that level.

事實上，本季我們的治癒率實際上高於新的違約率。因此，我想說，我們繼續看到真正強勁的違約和治癒趨勢表現，這符合我們的預期。我認為就我們對整個週期違約率的預期而言，我認為我們仍然處於 3% 以下的範圍內。我們並不期望與該水準有太大差異。

And in terms of modeling our expectations, we always take a through-the-cycle view. We want to be conservative. We want to make sure we track different macroeconomic outcomes given the uncertainty externally. And so we remain conservative, but our data continues to be extremely strong, and our cure trends continue to be much better than what we initially reserved for.

在建立我們的預期模型時，我們始終採取貫穿整個週期的視角。我們希望保持保守。我們希望確保在外部不確定性的情況下追蹤不同的宏觀經濟結果。因此我們仍然保持保守，但我們的數據仍然非常強勁，我們的治癒趨勢仍然比我們最初預期的要好得多。

Got it. That's helpful. And then the claims rate at 7.5%, you guys took that down from 8%. I think it was like two quarters ago. Just kind of remind me what the drivers there are. And then like looking forward, how should we kind of think about that claims rate through a variety of kind of economic scenarios? Is there some sort of kind of implied unemployment rate that contemplates? Thank you.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後索賠率為 7.5%，你們將其從 8% 降至 7.5%。我認為那大概是兩個季度前的事了。只是提醒我有哪些驅動程式。然後展望未來，我們該如何透過各種經濟情景來考慮索賠率？是否存在某種隱含的失業率？謝謝。

So I think when we look at our default to claim rate assumption, we really want to do that through the cycle. We obviously look at current unemployment trends. We look at other macroeconomic indicators, but the reserving assumption is really through the cycle.

因此，我認為，當我們審視違約索賠率假設時，我們確實希望在整個週期中做到這一點。我們顯然關注當前的失業趨勢。我們關注其他宏觀經濟指標，但儲備假設確實是貫穿整個週期的。

And when we chose to bring that down from 8% to 7.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, we took into account cure trends, and we took into account what we were seeing clear positive trends, primarily driven from home price appreciation, and we felt comfortable reserving less for new defaults. We've continued to keep that assumption for this quarter.

當我們在去年第四季度選擇將這一比率從 8% 降至 7.5% 時，我們考慮了治癒趨勢，也考慮到了我們看到的明顯的積極趨勢，這主要得益於房價上漲，因此我們覺得減少對新違約的準備金是可以接受的。本季我們繼續保持這一假設。

Also, keep in mind, last quarter, we did not make a different assumption for hurricane-related defaults. We blended it together and we reduced our overall roll rate from 8% to 7.5%. We feel comfortable with that assumption, and we didn't make a change this quarter. Having said that, we would change that if we see the macroeconomic scenario change drastically from where we are today.

另外，請記住，上個季度，我們並沒有對與颶風相關的違約做出不同的假設。我們將其融合在一起，將整體滾動率從 8% 降低到 7.5%。我們對這個假設感到滿意，本季我們沒有做出改變。話雖如此，如果我們發現宏觀經濟情勢與目前相比發生巨大變化，我們就會改變這種狀況。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Actually, in terms of buybacks, I think, Sumita, could you repeat what you said about buybacks in the second quarter? And then just in general, is there a good way to think about payout ratios or just broadly, just philosophy on capital return?

實際上，就回購而言，我認為，Sumita，您能否重複一下您所說的第二季的回購情況？那麼，一般來說，是否有一個好方法來思考派息率，或者只是從廣義上講，只是資本回報的概念？

Yeah, sure. I'll start, and Rick, jump in with other thoughts as we go through this. So I would say what I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Bose, was that we really accelerated our share buyback this quarter. You saw us almost go out and buy back four times the shares that we were buying in prior quarters. We did that because, one, we saw great opportunity in terms of where our stock was trading this quarter. Second, we also continue to use our excess liquidity in our holding company. If you remember last year, we used some of our holding company liquidity to actually pay down our debt.

是的，當然。我先開始，然後 Rick，在我們討論這個問題時加入其他想法。因此，我想說，我在準備好的發言中提到的是，Bose，我們本季確實加快了股票回購的速度。您會看到，我們幾乎回購了前幾季購買量的四倍。我們這樣做是因為，首先，我們看到本季股票交易方面存在著巨大的機會。其次，我們也繼續利用控股公司的過剩流動性。如果您還記得去年，我們使用了部分控股公司的流動資金來償還債務。

Right now, we have no debt maturities over the next two years. So we used our holding company liquidity to really take advantage of where our stock was trading, and we increased our share buyback amount this quarter. And I think we will continue to buy back shares at a similar pace, at least for second quarter, given where we are trading today.

目前，我們沒有未來兩年到期的債務。因此，我們利用控股公司的流動性來真正利用我們股票的交易情況，並且我們在本季度增加了股票回購金額。考慮到我們目前的交易情況，我認為我們將繼續以類似的速度回購股票，至少在第二季是如此。

So yeah, I mean, we plan to keep using our liquidity from our holding company to make sure that we are buying back shares and capturing value. Rick, would you add anything else?

是的，我的意思是，我們計劃繼續利用控股公司的流動性來確保我們回購股票並獲取價值。瑞克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. I would also say you've seen us over the last five years, buy back $1.4 billion worth of shares, 30% of our shares outstanding. Go back seven years, we bought back $1.9 billion or 39% of our shares. So we've been very active in the market. I think we always have kind of a baseline view of share buybacks kind of on a quarter-to-quarter basis. But we're also always well-armed with an authorization in place to be able to lean in, not just any time, but at the right time to really kind of find value for shareholders and return capital.

是的。我還要說的是，在過去五年裡，我們已經回購了價值 14 億美元的股票，占我們流通股的 30%。回顧七年前，我們回購了價值 19 億美元或 39% 的股份。因此我們在市場上非常活躍。我認為我們總是對按季度進行的股票回購有基本的看法。但我們也始終擁有充分的授權，能夠隨時介入，真正為股東找到價值並回報資本。

So I think this last quarter and the second quarter, as Sumita said, where in the second quarter, we expect to buy a similar amount back, we're going to buy back in the first half of this year over -- approximately double what we bought back all of last year. And I think the opportunity presented itself, and we executed on it. So I'm proud of the team.

因此，我認為，正如 Sumita 所說，在上個季度和第二季度，我們預計將回購類似數量，而今年上半年的回購量將達到去年全年的約兩倍。我認為機會已經出現了，我們抓住了它。所以我為這個團隊感到驕傲。

I think when you look at our -- the value of our stock, we think it trades below intrinsic value, you think about the embedded value of our future earnings on the portfolio, which we went through on our Investor Day a couple of years ago. You look at AOCI, which discounts book value, you look at the overall economics of our business and the clarity we have around kind of future cash flow up to the holdco from RGI, I think we're in a really positive position.

我認為，當您查看我們的股票價值時，我們認為它的交易價格低於內在價值，您會想到我們投資組合未來收益的內在價值，這是我們幾年前在投資者日討論過的。你看一下 AOCI，它折現了賬面價值，你看一下我們業務的整體經濟狀況，以及我們對從 RGI 到控股公司的未來現金流的清晰認識，我認為我們處於非常積極的地位。

So you saw us kind of act in reaction and response to a market opportunity. And through the second quarter, if we buy back over $400 million, I think that will be a pretty significant positive impact for Radian overall.

所以你看到我們針對市場機會採取了反應和回應行動。到第二季度，如果我們回購超過 4 億美元，我認為這將對 Radian 整體產生相當大的正面影響。

Yeah. I think you also had a question on payout ratio. So we haven't really given guidance on a payout ratio in the past. All I would say is that if you look at what we expect to be the dividends from RGI to group, we mentioned that we are expected to pay up to $795 million. That's our statutory net income constraint because that was our stat net income in 2024.

是的。我想您也對派息率有疑問。因此，我們過去實際上並沒有給出有關派息率的指導。我想說的是，如果你看看我們預計 RGI 向集團支付的股息，我們提到我們預計將支付高達 7.95 億美元的股息。這是我們的法定淨收入限制，因為這是我們 2024 年的法定淨收入。

So that's the max ordinary dividend or return of capital that we can do from RGI to group. So you can see how much, what's the pace at which we are returning that capital back to our shareholders.

這就是我們可以從 RGI 向集團支付的最高普通股息或資本回報。所以你可以看到我們向股東返還資本的金額和速度是怎麼樣的。

Okay. Great to see the pace of the buybacks. And then just in terms of the delinquencies, can you just talk about the level of embedded equity in the new delinquencies? And is that kind of similar to what you've seen, say, over the last year?

好的。很高興看到回購的速度。那麼，就拖欠債務而言，您能否談談新拖欠債務中嵌入的權益水平？這與去年看到的情況類似嗎？

Yeah. I think it continues to be really strong. I think that if you look at our new defaults, about 75% of our new defaults continues to have more than 20% equity. So it's still a very, very consistent trend, and we continue to see a very strong cure performance as a result.

是的。我認為它會繼續保持強勁。我認為，如果你看看我們的新違約案例，你會發現大約 75% 的新違約案例仍然擁有超過 20% 的股權。因此，這仍然是一個非常非常一致的趨勢，因此我們繼續看到非常強勁的治癒表現。

Doug Harter, UBS.

瑞銀的道格·哈特。

Just how are you thinking about what is the right level of holdco liquidity kind of over time, especially kind of given the work you've already done on bringing down debt and no near-term debt maturities?

您如何考慮長期內控股公司流動性的適當水平，特別是考慮到您已經為降低債務和沒有短期債務到期而做的工作？

Yeah. I mean, I think -- thanks for the question. It's -- we are in a great position. So you can see that we are using the flexibility we have in our holding company and continuing to really think about the use of that liquidity. So we started the quarter with about $885 million of liquidity in our holding company. As mentioned, we returned $244 million back to shareholders. We got another $200 million from RGI as a return of capital in this quarter instead of a dividend. And so we are currently sitting at about $834 million of liquidity in our holding company as well as a credit facility.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——感謝您的提問。我們的處境非常有利。因此，您可以看到，我們正在利用控股公司的靈活性，並繼續認真考慮如何使用這種流動性。因此，本季開始時，我們的控股公司擁有約 8.85 億美元的流動資金。如上所述，我們向股東返還了 2.44 億美元。本季我們從 RGI 獲得了另外 2 億美元的資本回報，而不是股息。因此，我們控股公司目前擁有約 8.34 億美元的流動資金和信貸額度。

We've not given a specific guidance as to what is that threshold number that we need to keep in our holding company. We obviously look at what our fixed charges are, how much do we really need to keep aside from an interest coverage perspective as well as the dividends that we pay to our shareholders. We do look at all of that and think of our fixed charge from our holding company.

對於我們需要在控股公司中保留的門檻數字，我們還沒有給出具體的指導。我們顯然會考慮我們的固定費用是多少，除了利息覆蓋率以及我們向股東支付的股息之外，我們真正需要保留多少錢。我們確實考慮了所有這些，並考慮了控股公司的固定費用。

But what I will say is that right now, the liquidity we have in our holding company is much, much higher than where we need to be to really run our business. And we will continue to do the right thing and make sure that we're returning that capital back to shareholders as and when we see value in our share price.

但我要說的是，目前，我們控股公司的流動性遠高於我們真正經營業務所需的水平。我們將繼續做正確的事情，並確保在股價有價值時將資本回饋給股東。

Yeah. And I would just add to that, kind of echoing your point. The transparency we have of cash flow from RGI up to Radian Group kind of for the foreseeable future, as we've talked about, is -- really puts us in a position of strength to be very kind of agile and flexible when it comes to capital management.

是的。我只是想補充一點，呼應你的觀點。正如我們所討論的，在可預見的未來，從 RGI 到 Radian Group 的現金流量透明度確實使我們在資本管理方面處於非常敏捷和靈活的優勢地位。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

I wanted to go back to the buyback discussion. I believe your buyback used to be a value-based 10b5 plan. Has that changed? And just can you talk a little bit about the mechanics of how the buyback work? Is it just a matter of you putting more money towards it and still executing on that value-based plan? Or like -- I'm just trying to understand the -- like how you're being opportunistic and the flex in it in terms of moving up or down quickly.

我想回到回購討論。我相信您的回購曾經是一個基於價值的 10b5 計劃。有改變嗎？能否稍微談談回購運作的機制？這只是你投入更多資金並仍然執行基於價值的計劃的問題嗎？或者像——我只是想要理解——你是如何抓住機會的，以及在快速上升或下降方面的靈活性。

Yeah. I mean, it is still a 10b5 plan. I mean, I think we do have to make sure that we keep that grid active. So we have a grid, and we execute based on that grid. We have continued to make changes to that grid as we have seen opportunity. And I think that's what you're seeing as a result of how we are now buying back much more shares.

是的。我的意思是，它仍然是一個 10b5 計劃。我的意思是，我認為我們必須確保電網保持活躍。因此我們有一個網格，並且我們基於該網格執行。當我們看到機會時，我們會繼續對該電網進行更改。我認為這就是我們現在回購更多股票的結果。

So yes, while it is executed through a 10b5 plan, we've increased the pace and the amount of capital that we are putting aside to execute the share repurchase program. I'll also say that as we -- there was a moment maybe two years back when we were being a little more conservative, and it was much more of a value-based plan.

所以是的，雖然它是透過 10b5 計畫執行的，但我們加快了執行股票回購計畫的速度並增加了資本金額。我還要說的是，大概兩年前，我們曾經比較保守，這是一個基於價值的計畫。

At this point, I would say we just see tremendous opportunity in our share price. I think Rick talked about where we see value from. It's from AOCI, it's from the embedded value of our MI business that's not reflected in our book value today. And I think we gave some indications of that two years back now in our Investor Day.

此時，我想說我們在股價中看到了巨大的機會。我認為 Rick 談到了我們從哪裡看到價值。它來自 AOCI，來自我們 MI 業務的內含價值，但這並未反映在我們今天的帳面價值中。我認為我們在兩年前的投資者日上已經給出了一些跡象。

So I would say, yes, it is value-based, but we are also being a little bit more optimistic about where we are headed as a business. And we will continue to buy back those shares based on a 10b5 grid.

所以我想說，是的，這是基於價值的，但我們對我們作為一家企業的發展方向也更加樂觀。而我們將繼續按照10b5網格回購這些股票。

Got it. That makes sense. And then in terms of the claim rate, cure rate-type balance, if you will, the cure rates have been very strong. I mean, I think you have the slide and everything you can see is like 97%, 98%. You mentioned cure rates are like you had the two highest months over the last 10 years recently. Is that all just HPA driven? Like are there other factors driving it? Has something -- is there something other than HPA that is driving such strong cure rates? Can you talk about that a little bit?

知道了。這很有道理。然後就索賠率、治癒率類型的平衡而言，如果你願意的話，治癒率一直非常高。我的意思是，我認為你有幻燈片，你所能看到的一切都像是 97%、98%。您提到治癒率最近兩個月是過去 10 年來最高的。這一切都只是 HPA 驅動的嗎？例如還有其他因素在推動它嗎？除了 HPA 之外，還有其他因素可以推動如此高的治癒率嗎？你能稍微談論一下這個嗎？

Mihir, thank you for that question. I'll take that, and Sumita can add to it as well. But I think, look, embedded equity in the home is certainly a good incentive for a homebuyer to make sure they find a way to protect that equity.

Mihir，謝謝你的提問。我會接受這個，Sumita 也可以補充。但我認為，房屋內含的資產無疑對購屋者來說是一個很好的激勵，以確保他們找到一種方法來保護這些資產。

But I would say, combined with that, there's a tremendous amount of muscle memory that we all came through kind of from the great financial crisis. But then COVID, where we, as an industry and as a government and a regulator -- and we learned that keeping the borrower in their home to allow them to get their feet back on the ground and kind of move forward has proven to be a really positive factor. So I would put that.

但我想說，除此之外，我們都經歷了巨大的金融危機，並由此形成了巨大的肌肉記憶。但後來，在新冠疫情爆發後，我們作為一個行業、一個政府和一個監管機構了解到，讓借款人留在家中，讓他們能夠重新站穩腳跟，繼續前進，這已被證明是一個非常積極的因素。所以我會這麼說。

And I would just emphasize that some of the learnings from COVID have translated into even a better structure that avoids kind of, I guess, abuses of that kind of forbearance. So it's -- the structure for helping people, I think, has been improved.

我想強調的是，從新冠疫情中學到的一些教訓已經轉化為更好的結構，可以避免濫用這種寬容。所以，我認為幫助人們的結構已經得到了改善。

You also look at kind of the employment cycle that continues today even with all the headline news around tariffs and global trade and so forth. Employment continues to be a factor in enabling people to get reemployed if they become unemployed. And so those are factors we watch. As Sumita went through a few minutes ago talking about how we set reserve policy, we really look at kind of a number of different factors kind of going through. I think there's a number of factors today that are enabling people to cure better than we've expected to date, right? But we're going to continue to monitor it and continue to watch it and continue to express our opinion through our reserves.

您還可以看到，即使今天有大量關於關稅和全球貿易等的頭條新聞，就業週期仍在繼續。就業仍然是人們失業後能否再就業的因素。這些都是我們關注的因素。正如 Sumita 幾分鐘前談到我們如何制定儲備政策時所說，我們確實考慮了許多不同的因素。我認為，如今有許多因素使得人們的治療效果比我們預期的更好，對嗎？但我們將繼續監測、繼續關注並繼續透過我們的儲備表達我們的意見。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to turn it back to Rick Thornberry for closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前沒有其他問題。現在我想請 Rick Thornberry 做最後發言。

I appreciate that. Thank you all for joining the call today. We always appreciate your time and interest in Radian and our ability to kind of update you on the current state of our business, which we're very proud of. We look forward to the opportunity to meet and talk to many of you over the coming weeks and answer your questions. As always, one of the highlights of the job I have here is the opportunity to meet with you all. So have a great day and thank you for your time.

我很感激。感謝大家今天參加電話會議。我們始終感謝您對 Radian 所付出的時間和關注，也感謝您能夠向您通報我們業務的現狀，對此我們感到非常自豪。我們期待有機會在未來幾週與你們中的許多人見面、交談並回答你們的問題。像往常一樣，我在這裡工作的一大亮點就是有機會與大家見面。祝您有愉快的一天，感謝您抽出時間。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。