Radian Group Inc (RDN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Radian Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, John Damian, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Radian Group 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者，公司發展和投資者關係高級副總裁約翰達米安。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Radian's Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2022 Conference Call. Our press release, which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter and full year, was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website at www.radian.com. This press release includes certain non-GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call, including adjusted pretax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share and adjusted net operating return on equity.

謝謝，歡迎來到 Radian 的 2022 年第四季度和年終電話會議。我們的新聞稿包含 Radian 本季度和全年的財務業績，於昨天晚上發布，並張貼在我們網站 www.radian.com 的投資者部分。本新聞稿包括可能在今天的電話會議上討論的某些非 GAAP 指標，包括調整後的稅前營業收入、調整後的攤薄每股淨營業收入和調整後的淨營業股本回報率。

In addition, specifically for our Homegenius segment, other non-GAAP measures in our press release that may be discussed today include adjusted gross profit and adjusted pretax operating income or loss before allocated corporate operating expenses. A complete description of all of our non-GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website.

此外，特別是對於我們的 Homegenius 部分，我們今天可能討論的新聞稿中的其他非 GAAP 措施包括調整後的毛利和調整後的稅前營業收入或分配的公司運營費用前的虧損。我們所有非 GAAP 措施的完整描述可在新聞稿附件 F 中找到，這些措施與最可比的 GAAP 措施的調節可在新聞稿附件 G 中找到。這些附件位於我們網站的投資者部分。

Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer and Rob Quigley, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call is Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

今天，您將聽到 Radian 首席執行官 Rick Thornberry 和財務總監兼首席會計官 Rob Quigley 的講話。 Radian Mortgage 總裁 Derek Brummer 也在電話會議的問答環節中。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包括前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於當前的預期、估計、預測和假設，存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果存在重大差異。

For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our 2021 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Rick.

有關這些風險的討論，請查看我們的收益發布中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明，以及我們 2021 年 10-K 表格和隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中包含的風險因素。這些也可以在我們的網站上找到。現在我想把電話轉給里克。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon. Thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in Radian. Despite headwinds in the macroeconomic environment and continued cooling across the mortgage and real estate markets, I'm pleased to report another solid quarter for Radian. In a few minutes, Rob will discuss the details of our financial results, expense management progress and capital actions.

謝謝你，約翰，下午好。感謝大家今天加入我們以及對 Radian 的關注。儘管宏觀經濟環境不利，抵押貸款和房地產市場持續降溫，但我很高興地報告 Radian 又一個穩定的季度。幾分鐘後，羅布將討論我們的財務業績、費用管理進展和資本行動的細節。

Before he begins, let me share a few thoughts on the environment, our strategic focus and how we are positioned to navigate the road ahead. In terms of the macroeconomic environment, the weakness in the economy continues to be driven by the dual headwinds of high inflation and interest rates. Although there are concerns related to a potential recession, inflation has begun to ease somewhat in 2023, which the Fed recognized with a reduced interest rate hike last week. And despite these economic factors, there continues to be a strong labor market with the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.

在他開始之前，讓我分享一些關於環境、我們的戰略重點以及我們如何定位前進道路的想法。宏觀經濟環境方面，高通脹和高利率的雙重逆風繼續推動經濟疲軟。儘管存在與潛在衰退相關的擔憂，但通脹在 2023 年開始有所緩解，美聯儲上週通過減少加息來承認這一點。儘管有這些經濟因素，勞動力市場依然強勁，失業率處於 50 多年來最低水平。

And from a mortgage and real estate market perspective, despite near-term challenges, our outlook for housing remains surely positive over the near and long term. In 2022, the doubling of interest rates negatively impacted volumes, with mortgage applications falling to recent record lows. For 2023, recent industry mortgage origination forecasts call for a bottoming out of the origination market with a decline of approximately 20%, followed by a return to growth in 2024 with increased purchase loans and expected strong participation by first-time homebuyers. And after a 2-year run where the real estate market saw a significant gain in home prices, many regions across the country are seeing home prices coming off their record highs that we believe should support a healthy real estate market in coming years.

從抵押貸款和房地產市場的角度來看，儘管近期面臨挑戰，但我們對近期和長期的住房前景肯定保持樂觀。 2022 年，利率翻番對交易量產生負面影響，抵押貸款申請降至近期歷史低點。對於 2023 年，最近的行業抵押貸款發起預測要求發起市場觸底反彈，下降約 20%，隨後隨著購買貸款的增加和首次購房者的強烈參與，2024 年將恢復增長。在房地產市場房價連續兩年大幅上漲之後，全國許多地區的房價都在從歷史高位回落，我們認為這應該會在未來幾年支持健康的房地產市場。

And although the rapid rise in mortgage rates has created pressure on affordability. Another important variable in the market is the supply and demand imbalance. There are millions of millennials expected to continue to reach the prime homebuying age for the next several years. And there is an extreme shortage of affordable housing stock, which is further impacted by homeowners that have a mortgage note rate in the mid-2% and low 3% range and are less likely to move.

儘管抵押貸款利率的快速上升對負擔能力造成了壓力。市場的另一個重要變量是供需失衡。預計未來幾年將有數百萬千禧一代繼續達到購房的黃金年齡。而且經濟適用房存量極度短缺，這進一步受到抵押票據利率介於 2% 和 3% 之間且不太可能搬家的房主的影響。

While the shortage of affordable housing, combined with the strong market demand creates affordability challenges for first-time homebuyers, it is a positive for our insured and portfolio as it helps to mitigate downside risk in terms of home values. And it is also creating pent-up demand, which is expected to drive purchase market growth in 2024 and beyond.

雖然經濟適用房的短缺，加上強勁的市場需求，給首次購房者帶來了負擔能力的挑戰，但這對我們的被保險人和投資組合來說是積極的，因為它有助於減輕房屋價值方面的下行風險。它還創造了被壓抑的需求，預計這將推動 2024 年及以後的採購市場增長。

As you've heard me say from a strategic perspective, our team remained focused throughout the year across our 3 areas of strategic value creation, growing the economic value and the future earnings of our Mortgage Insurance portfolio, growing our Homegenius business and managing our capital resources. In terms of growing the economic value of our Mortgage Insurance portfolio, by leveraging our proprietary analytics and RADAR Rates platform focused on driving economic value along with our deep customer relationships and dynamic pricing strategies, we wrote $68 billion of high-quality Mortgage Insurance business in 2022. This contributed to a 6.1% growth in our Mortgage Insurance in force portfolio year-over-year.

正如您從戰略角度聽到我所說的那樣，我們的團隊全年專注於戰略價值創造的 3 個領域，增加抵押保險組合的經濟價值和未來收益，發展我們的 Homegenius 業務和管理我們的資本資源。在增加抵押保險產品組合的經濟價值方面，通過利用專注於推動經濟價值的專有分析和 RADAR Rates 平台以及我們深厚的客戶關係和動態定價策略，我們在2022 年。這導致我們的抵押保險有效投資組合同比增長 6.1%。

We've been able to calibrate our dynamic risk-based pricing to address the risk and opportunities that we see in the current market. We increased our prices in 2022 based on the environment, particularly in the second half of the year and have continued to increase pricing in 2023. While we believe NIW volumes will slow over the next year, we expect to see continued opportunity to put our capital to work at attractive risk-adjusted returns. Higher mortgage interest rates are driving higher persistency across our large and valuable $261 billion insurance in force portfolio, and the increase in interest rates has resulted in higher yields across our $5.8 billion investment portfolio. The higher yield support returns on our Mortgage Insurance business and generate incremental income that flows directly to our bottom line.

我們已經能夠校准我們基於風險的動態定價，以應對我們在當前市場中看到的風險和機遇。我們根據環境提高了 2022 年的價格，尤其是在下半年，並在 2023 年繼續提高價格。雖然我們認為 NIW 銷量將在明年放緩，但我們預計將繼續有機會投入我們的資金以有吸引力的風險調整回報率工作。更高的抵押貸款利率正在推動我們價值 2610 億美元的大型保險有效投資組合的更高持久性，而利率的上升導致我們 58 億美元投資組合的收益率更高。更高的收益率支持我們抵押保險業務的回報，並產生直接流入我們底線的增量收入。

In terms of growing our Homegenius business, during 2022, we experienced a decline in Homegenius revenues due to the rapid decrease in industry-wide mortgage and real estate transaction volume. Over the last few quarters, we've been making adjustments to our Homegenius cost structure that are reflective of the depressed market environment. We remain focused on building awareness of our Homegenius suite of products and services and continue to believe in the growth opportunities for this business, albeit at a slower pace than originally expected due to market conditions.

在發展我們的 Homegenius 業務方面，在 2022 年期間，由於全行業抵押貸款和房地產交易量的快速下降，我們經歷了 Homegenius 收入的下降。在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在對反映低迷市場環境的 Homegenius 成本結構進行調整。我們仍然專注於提高我們的 Homegenius 產品和服務套件的知名度，並繼續相信該業務的增長機會，儘管由於市場條件，增長速度低於原先預期。

Throughout the year, the team concentrated on expanding our market reach in a number of ways. We launched GENIUSPRICE, our intelligent pricing engine for more accurate home price estimates; and Homegenius Connect, a digital referral and rebate network that seamlessly connects homebuyers with our network of high-quality real estate agents. We introduced the real estate sector's first automated valuation model that uses both artificial intelligence and computer vision technology. We also increased the availability of our purchase title offering by adding 22 states and further enhancing the digital features of our TITLEGENIUS platform. And most recently, we launched a new version of homegenius.com, positioning us to transform the search to close experience for homebuyers.

在這一年中，該團隊專注於通過多種方式擴大我們的市場範圍。我們推出了 GENIUSPRICE，這是我們的智能定價引擎，可以更準確地估算房價；和 Homegenius Connect，這是一個數字推薦和返利網絡，可將購房者與我們的優質房地產經紀人網絡無縫連接。我們推出了房地產行業首個同時使用人工智能和計算機視覺技術的自動估值模型。我們還增加了 22 個州並進一步增強了 TITLEGENIUS 平台的數字功能，從而提高了購買產權產品的可用性。最近，我們推出了新版本的 homegenius.com，將我們定位為將搜索轉變為購房者的親密體驗。

And in terms of managing our capital resources, in 2022, we returned significant capital to our stockholders, paying dividends of $135 million and purchasing $400 million of Radian Group common stock, representing 11% of total shares outstanding. As we announced last month, we completed a series of capital actions in the fourth quarter that resulted in a $382 million distribution from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group. And for the first time since the beginning of the great financial crisis 15 years ago, Radian Guaranty is positioned to resume paying recurring ordinary dividends to Radian Group this year, which we project to be between $300 million and $400 million in 2023. Ordinary dividends in 2024 and beyond are expected to approximate Radian Guaranty's ongoing statutory earnings.

在管理我們的資本資源方面，2022 年，我們向股東返還了大量資本，支付了 1.35 億美元的股息，併購買了 4 億美元的 Radian Group 普通股，佔已發行股票總數的 11%。正如我們上個月宣布的那樣，我們在第四季度完成了一系列資本行動，導致 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 分配了 3.82 億美元。自 15 年前金融危機爆發以來，Radian Guaranty 首次準備在今年恢復向 Radian Group 支付經常性普通股息，我們預計 2023 年的普通股息將在 3 億美元至 4 億美元之間。普通股息在預計 2024 年及以後將接近 Radian Guaranty 的持續法定收入。

In addition, last month, our Board approved a new share repurchase program of $300 million over 2 years. And at December 31, Radian Group maintained nearly $1.2 billion of total holding company liquidity. It's also important to note that we continue to make the necessary adjustments to manage our expense structure across all of our businesses based on the changes that we see in the environment with a focus on driving greater operational efficiency. While this effort involved very difficult decisions related to our people, I'm pleased with the team's focus on addressing the dramatic market shift, and I believe the result will help position us as a stronger, more agile competitor while continuing to deliver exceptional service to our customers. Rob will provide more details regarding the expected savings related to these initiatives.

此外，上個月，我們的董事會批准了一項為期 2 年的 3 億美元的新股票回購計劃。截至 12 月 31 日，Radian Group 持有近 12 億美元的控股公司流動資金總額。同樣重要的是要注意，我們將根據我們在環境中看到的變化，繼續進行必要的調整，以管理我們所有業務的費用結構，重點是提高運營效率。雖然這項工作涉及與我們的人員相關的非常艱難的決定，但我很高興團隊專注於應對巨大的市場轉變，我相信結果將有助於我們成為更強大、更敏捷的競爭對手，同時繼續為客戶提供卓越的服務我們的顧客。 Rob 將提供有關與這些舉措相關的預期節省的更多詳細信息。

Let me spend a few minutes discussing how we are positioned to successfully navigate the current environment. For our mortgage insurance business in terms of defaults and claims paid, one of the most important factors is the ultimate level and duration of unemployment through the cycle. As I mentioned, the labor market currently remains strong with very low unemployment. Our insurance portfolio has been well underwritten and has a strong overall credit profile with meaningful embedded equity. Credit trends remain very positive with new default counts back to pre-pandemic levels. We expect new notices of default to increase throughout the year as the portfolio naturally seasons and the economic environment potentially becomes a bit more challenging for borrowers.

讓我花幾分鐘討論一下我們如何定位以成功駕馭當前環境。對於我們的抵押貸款保險業務而言，就違約和已付索賠而言，最重要的因素之一是整個週期的最終失業水平和持續時間。正如我所提到的，勞動力市場目前依然強勁，失業率非常低。我們的保險組合得到了很好的承保，整體信用狀況良好，內嵌股權意義重大。信用趨勢仍然非常積極，新的違約數量回到了大流行前的水平。我們預計全年新的違約通知會增加，因為投資組合自然會季節性變化，經濟環境可能對借款人更具挑戰性。

As I mentioned previously, we've been increasing our pricing to reflect the environment and continue to see evidence of price increases among our mortgage insurance peers as well. And perhaps most important is the quality of the mortgage industry's loan manufacturing and servicing processes remain strong, including exhaustive efforts to support borrowers experiencing hardship. And we continue to execute our aggregate, managed and distributed Mortgage Insurance business by our focus on lowering the risk profile, mitigating tail risk and through-the-cycle volatility of the business by utilizing risk distribution structures, optimizing between the capital and reinsurance markets.

正如我之前提到的，我們一直在提高定價以反映環境，並繼續看到我們的抵押貸款保險同行也出現價格上漲的證據。也許最重要的是抵押貸款行業的貸款製造和服務流程的質量依然強勁，包括竭盡全力支持遇到困難的借款人。我們通過利用風險分配結構、在資本和再保險市場之間進行優化，專注於降低風險狀況、減輕尾部風險和業務的整個週期波動，從而繼續執行我們的聚合、管理和分佈式抵押保險業務。

As you've heard me say before, our company is built to withstand economic cycles, significantly strengthened by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk-based pricing and the distribution of risk into the capital and reinsurance markets. We remain committed to our business strategy across our Mortgage and Homegenius businesses and have made adjustments to our cost structure that are reflective of the economic environment to help ensure our success. Additionally, we believe the strength of our capital position following the transformative year-end transaction significantly enhances our financial flexibility now and going forward.

正如您之前聽我說過的那樣，我們公司是為抵禦經濟周期而建立的，通過 PMIER 的資本框架、基於風險的動態定價以及將風險分配到資本和再保險市場而得到顯著加強。我們仍然致力於我們的抵押貸款和 Homegenius 業務的業務戰略，並根據經濟環境對我們的成本結構進行了調整，以幫助確保我們的成功。此外，我們相信，在變革性的年終交易之後，我們的資本狀況將顯著增強我們現在和未來的財務靈活性。

And while we continue to navigate through the reality of lower industry volumes for the near term, we will remain nimble in this economic climate, leveraging our outstanding customer relationships and our diversified set of innovative products and services as well as our experienced and passionate team to provide the solutions our customers need and to drive our future success. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Rob for details of our financial position.

在我們繼續應對近期行業銷量下降的現實的同時，我們將在這種經濟環境中保持敏捷，利用我們出色的客戶關係和多元化的創新產品和服務，以及我們經驗豐富和熱情的團隊，提供客戶需要的解決方案，推動我們未來的成功。現在，我想將電話轉給 Rob，了解我們財務狀況的詳細信息。

Thank you, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone. I appreciate the opportunity to speak today on behalf of the Radian team about our fourth quarter and full year results, especially given the strength of those results and the positive impacts from the capital actions that we completed during the quarter.

謝謝你，里克，大家下午好。我很高興今天有機會代表 Radian 團隊談論我們的第四季度和全年業績，特別是考慮到這些業績的實力以及我們在本季度完成的資本行動的積極影響。

As reported last night, in the fourth quarter of 2022, we earned GAAP net income of $162 million or $1.01 per diluted share compared to $1.07 per diluted share in the fourth quarter a year ago. For the full year, net income was $743 million or $4.35 per diluted share compared to $3.16 per diluted share in 2021. Those earnings helped produce an 18.2% return on equity for the full year 2022 compared to 14.1% for 2021, with the year-over-year improvement driven primarily by favorable credit trends that benefited our Mortgage Insurance loss provision. Adjusted diluted net operating income per share was $0.04 higher than the GAAP amount for the fourth quarter and $0.52 higher for the full year, as reflected in the detailed reconciliations provided in our press release.

正如昨晚報導的那樣，在 2022 年第四季度，我們的 GAAP 淨收入為 1.62 億美元或每股攤薄收益 1.01 美元，而去年第四季度為每股攤薄收益 1.07 美元。全年淨收入為 7.43 億美元或攤薄後每股收益 4.35 美元，而 2021 年為每股攤薄收益 3.16 美元。這些收益幫助產生了 2022 年全年 18.2% 的股本回報率，而 2021 年為 14.1%，年度 -同比改善主要受有利的信貸趨勢推動，這有利於我們的抵押貸款保險損失準備金。調整後的每股攤薄淨營業收入比第四季度的 GAAP 數額高出 0.04 美元，全年高出 0.52 美元，這反映在我們的新聞稿中提供的詳細對賬中。

Turning to more detail behind these results, I will first address our revenue and related drivers, which were impacted by the broader macroeconomic environment in both positive and negative ways. As detailed on Exhibit D in our press release, we reported total net premiums earned of $233 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Compared to prior periods, this amount reflects a decline in revenues, resulting from fewer single premium policy cancellations in our Mortgage Insurance portfolio as well as lower title insurance volume, both due primarily to the significant reduction in mortgage refinance activity during 2022.

關於這些結果背後的更多細節，我將首先討論我們的收入和相關驅動因素，它們受到更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境的正面和負面影響。正如我們新聞稿中的圖表 D 所詳述的那樣，我們報告了 2022 年第四季度的淨保費收入總額為 2.33 億美元。與上一時期相比，這一數額反映了收入下降，這是由於我們的抵押保險取消的單筆保費保單減少所致投資組合以及較低的產權保險量，這兩者都主要是由於 2022 年抵押貸款再融資活動的大幅減少。

Changes in the size and average premium yield of our in-force Mortgage Insurance portfolio also impacted our net premiums earned. Our primary insurance in force grew 6% year-over-year to $261 billion as of December 31, 2022, including 10% year-over-year growth in monthly premium in force, which is expected to be the most significant driver of our future revenues and now represents 86% of our total insured portfolio. Contributing to this growth was $68 billion of new insurance written for 2022, including nearly $13 billion written during the fourth quarter.

我們有效的抵押保險投資組合的規模和平均保費收益率的變化也影響了我們賺取的淨保費。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們的有效主要保險同比增長 6% 至 2610 億美元，其中有效月度保費同比增長 10%，這有望成為我們未來最重要的驅動力收入，現在占我們總保險組合的 86%。為這一增長做出貢獻的是為 2022 年承保的 680 億美元新保險，其中包括第四季度承保的近 130 億美元。

In both the fourth quarter and full year 2022, monthly and other recurring premiums accounted for 95% of our new volume. The new insurance written in 2022 reflects a decline from the record pace experienced in 2020 and 2021 due to the reduction in the overall mortgage origination market. However, while the market slowdown in purchase and refinance originations has had a negative impact on our new insurance written, it has significantly benefited our persistency rate. In the fourth quarter, our persistency rate increased to 84% on a quarterly annualized basis compared to 72% a year ago. We expect our persistency rate to remain elevated, in particular, since approximately 86% of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 5% or less as of year-end 2022 and are therefore less likely to cancel in the near term due to refinancing.

在 2022 年第四季度和全年，月度和其他經常性保費占我們新業務量的 95%。由於整體抵押貸款發放市場的減少，2022 年承保的新保險反映出與 2020 年和 2021 年創紀錄的速度相比有所下降。然而，雖然購買和再融資發起的市場放緩對我們的新承保產生了負面影響，但它顯著提高了我們的持續率。在第四季度，我們的季度年化持續率從一年前的 72% 上升到 84%。我們預計我們的持續率將保持較高水平，特別是因為截至 2022 年底，我們約 86% 的有效保險的抵押貸款利率為 5% 或更低，因此由於再融資而在短期內取消的可能性較小.

Given the shift in mix of our insured portfolio in recent years toward our monthly premium products, we believe this increase in persistency is an especially positive indicator for our future premiums earned and recurring cash flows.

鑑於近年來我們的保險組合轉向我們的月度保費產品，我們認為這種持續性的增加是我們未來賺取的保費和經常性現金流量的一個特別積極的指標。

As shown on webcast Slide 13, our in force portfolio premium yield for our Mortgage Insurance portfolio was approximately 38 basis points for the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a decline over the past year that was more moderate compared to prior years and consistent with our previously stated expectations as the composition of our insured portfolio continued to shift to more recent vintages. Given elevated persistency rates and the current industry pricing environment, we expect the in force portfolio premium yield to stabilize further and remain relatively flat over the course of 2023. As a reminder, the total net yield of our insured portfolio can fluctuate from period to period due to several other factors such as changes in our risk distribution programs, profit commissions earned and single premium policy cancellations.

如網絡廣播幻燈片 13 所示，我們抵押保險投資組合的有效投資組合保費收益率在 2022 年第四季度約為 38 個基點，反映出過去一年的下降幅度與往年相比更為溫和，並且與我們之前的預測一致陳述了預期，因為我們的保險投資組合的構成繼續轉向最近的年份。鑑於較高的持續率和當前的行業定價環境，我們預計有效投資組合的保費收益率將在 2023 年進一步穩定並保持相對平穩。提醒一下，我們保險投資組合的總淨收益率可能會在不同時期波動由於其他幾個因素，例如我們的風險分配計劃的變化、賺取的利潤佣金和一次性保費保單取消。

In addition to the positive impact on persistency rates, another benefit from the rising interest rate environment has been a notable increase in our investment income to $59 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $37 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The book yield on our investment portfolio increased to 3.5% as of year-end 2022, and the higher rate environment should continue to be positive for the reinvestment of future cash flows. In contrast, rising interest rates have had a negative effect during the year on the fair value of our investment portfolio, resulting in increased unrealized losses that had a temporary negative impact on our book value since these unrealized losses are primarily recorded directly to our stockholders' equity, as shown on webcast Slide 9. We do not currently expect to realize these losses as we have the ability and intent to hold these securities until recovery, which may be to their maturity dates.

除了對持續率產生積極影響外，利率上升環境帶來的另一個好處是我們的投資收入從 2021 年第四季度的 3700 萬美元顯著增加到 2022 年第四季度的 5900 萬美元。賬面收益率截至 2022 年底，我們投資組合的利率增加到 3.5%，較高的利率環境應該會繼續對未來現金流的再投資產生積極影響。相比之下，年內利率上升對我們投資組合的公允價值產生了負面影響，導致未實現損失增加，對我們的賬面價值產生了暫時的負面影響，因為這些未實現損失主要直接記入我們的股東股權，如網絡廣播幻燈片 9 所示。我們目前預計不會實現這些損失，因為我們有能力並打算持有這些證券直到恢復，這可能是它們的到期日。

As Rick noted, the industry-wide decline in mortgage and real estate transactions also negatively impacted our Homegenius segment revenues, which totaled $19 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $25 million for the third quarter of 2022 and $45 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. Our reported Homegenius pretax operating loss before allocated corporate operating expenses was $25 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to a loss of $20 million for the third quarter of 2022 and income of $3 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. The loss for the fourth quarter of 2022 included $5 million in severance and related charges as we made necessary adjustments to our expense structure to align with current market conditions.

正如 Rick 指出的那樣，全行業抵押貸款和房地產交易的下降也對我們的 Homegenius 部門收入產生了負面影響，2022 年第四季度總收入為 1900 萬美元，而 2022 年第三季度為 2500 萬美元，第四季度為 4500 萬美元2021 年。我們報告的 Homegenius 2022 年第四季度在分配的公司運營費用之前的稅前運營虧損為 2500 萬美元，而 2022 年第三季度虧損 2000 萬美元，2021 年第四季度收入 300 萬美元。虧損2022 年第四季度包括 500 萬美元的遣散費和相關費用，因為我們對費用結構進行了必要的調整以適應當前的市場狀況。

Moving to our provision for losses. The positive trends that we have been experiencing continued this quarter. As noted on webcast Slide 16 and consistent with the direction in recent quarters, we had a net benefit of $44 million in our mortgage provision for losses for the fourth quarter of 2022 due to favorable prior period reserve development. For full year 2022, we had a net benefit of $339 million in our mortgage provision for losses, which was the result of $160 million of loss provision for new defaults, more than offset by $499 million of benefit from positive reserve development on prior period defaults. The number of new defaults reported each period is the driver of our provision for new defaults, along with our estimates of both a number of those defaults that will ultimately be submitted as a claim and the corresponding average claim paid.

轉到我們的損失準備金。我們一直在經歷的積極趨勢在本季度繼續存在。正如在網絡廣播幻燈片 16 中指出的那樣，與最近幾個季度的方向一致，由於有利的前期儲備發展，我們在 2022 年第四季度的抵押貸款準備金損失中獲得了 4400 萬美元的淨收益。到 2022 年全年，我們的抵押貸款損失準備金淨收益為 3.39 億美元，這是因為新違約損失準備金為 1.6 億美元，被前期違約的正準備金開發收益 4.99 億美元所抵消.每個時期報告的新違約數量是我們為新違約準備金的驅動因素，以及我們對最終將作為索賠提交的違約數量和相應的平均已支付索賠的估計。

As noted on webcast Slide 17, our new defaults of approximately 10,700 in the fourth quarter of 2022 were slightly elevated by defaults in areas affected by Hurricane Ian as well as by an operational reporting change introduced in the quarter, neither of which are expected to have a material impact on our reserves or ultimate claims paid.

正如在網絡廣播幻燈片 17 中指出的那樣，我們在 2022 年第四季度的新違約率約為 10,700，由於受颶風伊恩影響的地區的違約率以及本季度引入的運營報告變更而略有增加，預計兩者都不會對我們的準備金或最終支付的索賠產生重大影響。

Although current cure trends have been more favorable due in large part to forbearance programs and the strong home price appreciation experienced in recent years, we maintained our key default-to-claim rate assumption for those new defaults as 8%, given the risks and uncertainties associated with the current economic environment. Similar to recent quarters, we lowered our ultimate claim assumptions in the fourth quarter for defaults from certain prior periods due to continuing favorable cure trends, resulting in the release of $89 million of prior period reserves in the quarter.

儘管目前的治愈趨勢在很大程度上歸因於寬容計劃和近年來房價的強勁上漲，但鑑於風險和不確定性，我們維持對這些新違約的關鍵違約索賠率假設為 8%與當前的經濟環境有關。與最近幾個季度類似，由於持續有利的治愈趨勢，我們在第四季度降低了對某些前期違約的最終索賠假設，導致本季度釋放了 8900 萬美元的前期準備金。

Turning to our other expenses. For the fourth quarter of 2022, our other operating expenses totaled $110 million, an increase compared to $91 million in the third quarter of 2022 and $80 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Our other operating expenses were elevated in the fourth quarter of 2022 due primarily to 2 items: $15 million in impairment of long-lived assets and other nonoperating items, primarily from impairments to lease-related assets; as well as $12 million in total severance and related charges. Based on our expense savings actions to date and consistent with our previously shared estimates, we anticipate our 2023 full year consolidated other operating expenses to be approximately $330 million to $340 million, while 2023 full year cost of services are expected to be approximately $50 million to $60 million. On a combined basis, these amounts represent a reduction in total expenses on a year-over-year basis of $60 million to $80 million or 13% to 17%. As a reminder, these expenses can fluctuate due to changes in items such as variable incentive compensation and volume-related costs.

轉向我們的其他費用。 2022 年第四季度，我們的其他運營費用總計 1.1 億美元，相比 2022 年第三季度的 9100 萬美元和 2021 年第四季度的 8000 萬美元有所增加。我們的其他運營費用在 2022 年第四季度有所增加，原因是主要針對 2 個項目：1500 萬美元的長期資產和其他非經營性項目的減值，主要來自租賃相關資產的減值；以及總計 1200 萬美元的遣散費和相關費用。根據我們迄今為止的費用節省行動並與我們之前共享的估計一致，我們預計 2023 年全年綜合其他運營費用約為 3.3 億美元至 3.4 億美元，而 2023 年全年服務成本預計約為 5000 萬美元至6000 萬美元。綜合來看，這些金額代表總支出同比減少 6000 萬至 8000 萬美元或 13% 至 17%。提醒一下，這些費用可能會因可變激勵薪酬和數量相關成本等項目的變化而波動。

Moving finally to our capital and available liquidity. As Rick highlighted, we reached an important milestone for the company this quarter with the return of Radian Guaranty's ability to pay ordinary dividends, following a series of capital actions completed as part of our ongoing efforts to enhance financial flexibility. In December, we completed an agreement with an unrelated third-party insurer to novate the entire insured portfolio of our Radian Reinsurance subsidiary, which consisted of credit risk transfer transactions issued by the GSEs. Following the novation and as part of this overall strategy, we completed the merger of Radian Reinsurance into Radian Guaranty, our flagship mortgage insurer.

最後轉向我們的資本和可用流動性。正如 Rick 強調的那樣，本季度我們實現了公司的一個重要里程碑，Radian Guaranty 恢復了支付普通股息的能力，此前一系列資本行動已經完成，這是我們為提高財務靈活性所做的持續努力的一部分。 12 月，我們與一家無關的第三方保險公司完成了一項協議，更新我們 Radian 再保險子公司的整個保險組合，其中包括 GSE 發行的信用風險轉移交易。在革新之後，作為這一整體戰略的一部分，我們完成了將 Radian Reinsurance 合併到我們的旗艦抵押貸款保險公司 Radian Guaranty 中。

Once this merger was completed, the Pennsylvania Insurance Department approved a $282 million return of capital and a $100 million early repayment of an outstanding surplus note from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group, and both were paid at the end of 2022. As a result of the favorable impact of these capital actions as well as our outstanding financial results discussed earlier, Radian Guaranty ended 2022 with a positive unassigned funds balance of $258 million as shown on webcast Slide 22. As Rick highlighted, given this favorable position, we expect Radian Guaranty to resume paying recurring ordinary dividends to Radian Group without the need for prior regulatory approval beginning in the first quarter of 2023.

此次合併完成後，賓夕法尼亞州保險部門批准了 2.82 億美元的資本返還和 1 億美元的提前償還 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 支付的未償盈餘票據，兩者均於 2022 年底支付。由於由於這些資本行動的有利影響以及我們之前討論的出色財務業績，Radian Guaranty 截至 2022 年的未分配資金餘額為 2.58 億美元，如網絡廣播幻燈片 22 所示。正如 Rick 強調的那樣，鑑於這一有利地位，我們預計 Radian Guaranty 將從 2023 年第一季度開始，無需事先獲得監管批准，即可恢復向 Radian Group 支付經常性普通股息。

It is important to note that the payment of recurring ordinary dividends does not prohibit us from seeking approval from the Pennsylvania Insurance Department to pay an extraordinary distribution, which we've been able to do successfully in the past. As Rick also noted, based on current balances and projections, we expect the amount of the ordinary dividends to approximate $300 million to $400 million in 2023. Beginning in 2024, when more sizable contingency reserve releases are scheduled, we anticipate Radian Guaranty's ordinary dividend capacity to be primarily driven by the entity's ongoing statutory earnings, consistent with the limitations under Pennsylvania insurance laws.

重要的是要注意，支付經常性普通股息並不禁止我們尋求賓夕法尼亞保險部的批准來支付特別分配，我們過去已經成功地做到了這一點。正如 Rick 還指出的那樣，根據當前餘額和預測，我們預計 2023 年的普通股息數額約為 3 億至 4 億美元。從 2024 年開始，當計劃釋放更多規模的應急儲備時，我們預計 Radian Guaranty 的普通股息能力主要由實體的持續法定收入驅動，符合賓夕法尼亞州保險法的限制。

Radian Guaranty's excess PMIERs available assets over minimum required assets increased during the fourth quarter to $1.7 billion, which represents a 45% PMIERs cushion. Our available holding company liquidity increased during the fourth quarter from $573 million to $903 million as a result of the capital actions described earlier. During the fourth quarter of 2022, we returned approximately $33 million to stockholders through both dividend and share repurchase activities. While for the full year 2022, we returned over $535 million to stockholders through these activities.

Radian Guaranty 的 PMIERs 可用資產超出最低要求資產的部分在第四季度增加到 17 億美元，相當於 45% 的 PMIERs 緩衝。由於前面描述的資本行動，我們可用的控股公司流動性在第四季度從 5.73 億美元增加到 9.03 億美元。在 2022 年第四季度，我們通過股息和股票回購活動向股東返還了約 3300 萬美元。在 2022 年全年，我們通過這些活動向股東返還了超過 5.35 億美元。

While we are mindful of the risks and uncertainties in the broader macroeconomic environment, we believe we are well positioned to deliver meaningful value to our customers, policyholders and stockholders, given the expected future cash flows from our in force Mortgage Insurance portfolio, the level of risk distribution we have in place and the current financial strength and flexibility at both our holding company and Radian Guaranty. I will now turn the call back over to Rick.

雖然我們注意到更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境中的風險和不確定性，但我們相信我們有能力為我們的客戶、保單持有人和股東提供有意義的價值，因為我們有效的抵押保險投資組合的預期未來現金流量，水平我們現有的風險分配以及我們控股公司和 Radian Guaranty 目前的財務實力和靈活性。我現在將把電話轉回給里克。

Thank you, Rob. Before we open the call to your questions, I want to highlight that we are pleased with our results and remain focused on executing our strategic plans. We are driving operational excellence across our businesses and aligning our overall expense structure and resources to reflect the market environment. Our $261 billion Mortgage Insurance portfolio is highly valuable and expected to deliver significant earnings going forward.

謝謝你，羅布。在我們開始回答您的問題之前，我想強調我們對我們的結果感到滿意，並將繼續專注於執行我們的戰略計劃。我們正在推動我們業務的卓越運營，並調整我們的整體費用結構和資源以反映市場環境。我們價值 2610 億美元的抵押貸款保險產品組合非常有價值，預計將在未來帶來可觀的收益。

We continue to strategically manage capital by maintaining strong holding company liquidity and PMIERs cushion, opportunistically repurchasing shares and paying the highest-yielding dividend in the industry to stockholders and are now positioned to pay recurring ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty. We continue to focus on our ESG efforts and recently issued our first DEI annual report. I am also pleased to report that Radian was named for the fifth consecutive year to the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index in recognition of our commitment to advancing gender equality in the workplace.

我們繼續通過保持強大的控股公司流動性和 PMIER 緩衝、機會主義地回購股票並向股東支付業內收益率最高的股息來戰略性地管理資本，現在可以從 Radian Guaranty 支付經常性的普通股息。我們繼續關注我們的 ESG 工作，最近發布了我們的第一份 DEI 年度報告。我也很高興地報告，Radian 連續第五年入選彭博性別平等指數，以表彰我們致力於促進工作場所性別平等的承諾。

And as I've mentioned previously, we are extremely proud of our success over the years in ensuring the American dream of homeownership, and we know we are in a unique position to do even more. As a cornerstone partner of the MBA's CONVERGENCE Philadelphia initiative, we look forward to the launch next month into working together with the MBA and other local partners to help address homeownership barriers for people and communities of color.

正如我之前提到的，我們為多年來在確保擁有房屋的美國夢方面取得的成功感到非常自豪，並且我們知道我們處於獨特的位置可以做得更多。作為 MBA 的 CONVERGENCE Philadelphia 計劃的基石合作夥伴，我們期待下個月啟動與 MBA 和其他當地合作夥伴的合作，以幫助解決有色人種和社區的購房障礙。

And finally, I want to thank our team for helping to drive our 2022 results and for the outstanding work they do every day. Now operator, we would be happy to take questions.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊幫助推動我們 2022 年的業績，感謝他們每天所做的出色工作。現在是接線員，我們很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Doug Harter with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Doug Harter。

Hoping you could talk a little bit about how you're viewing the competitive environment. It still seems like there are still big market share shifts kind of across the industry and just kind of how you're seeing the competitive pricing dynamics?

希望您能談談您如何看待競爭環境。整個行業似乎仍然存在較大的市場份額轉移，以及您如何看待競爭性定價動態？

Sure, Doug. This is Derek. So I wouldn't say we've seen necessarily bigger market share shifts. So we typically do see shifts when we see kind of a change in terms of cycle. So you tend to see market share shifts if you're in a down cycle from pricing or an up cycle. And I would characterize that we're in an increasing cycle right now. I think we've seen, on the competitive side, more increases in Q4. We actually started -- may increasing prices in July and have continued into 2023.

當然，道格。這是德里克。所以我不會說我們一定看到了更大的市場份額變化。因此，當我們看到週期方面的某種變化時，我們通常確實會看到變化。因此，如果您處於定價下降週期或上升週期，您往往會看到市場份額發生變化。我認為我們現在正處於一個增長的周期中。我認為我們已經看到，在競爭方面，第四季度有更多增長。我們實際上是在 7 月份開始——可能會提高價格，並一直持續到 2023 年。

So overall, I would say in the aggregate, an increasing cycle continue to be very focused on picking our spots where we find the most economic value with a particular focus on geographic pricing, and that's played out pretty well for us. We've been pretty aggressive in terms of how we price GOs. And we've seen pretty good correlation GO that we've priced up that we've been under-allocated from a share perspective. And that has also correlated closely with the GOs where we've seen more of a decrease in home prices recently. And I would say the reverse was true. The GOs that we were leaning in, we have outsized market share and we've seen prices hold up better.

所以總的來說，我想說的是，一個不斷增長的周期繼續非常專注於選擇我們發現最具經濟價值的地點，特別關注地理定價，這對我們來說非常好。就我們如何為 GO 定價而言，我們一直非常激進。我們已經看到很好的相關性 GO，我們已經定價，從股票的角度來看，我們的分配不足。這也與我們最近看到房價下跌更多的 GO 密切相關。我會說事實恰恰相反。我們所依賴的 GO，我們擁有超大的市場份額，而且我們看到價格保持得更好。

Our next question comes from the line of Bose George with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bose George 與 KBW 的對話。

The unusual expenses that you mentioned, how much of that was at Homegenius? And also, what do you think Homegenius could do? I mean, could you think Homegenius could get to breakeven if the mortgage market remains sub-$2 trillion, say, for the next couple of years?

您提到的異常開支，其中有多少是在 Homegenius 發生的？還有，你認為 Homegenius 能做什麼？我的意思是，如果未來幾年抵押貸款市場保持在 2 萬億美元以下，您認為 Homegenius 可以實現收支平衡嗎？

Let me -- Bose, thank you for the question. The -- and Rob may add to this, but let me just give a little bit of a Homegenius kind of update because I think that covers both of your questions. I think 2022 is really kind of a -- was a challenging year from many perspectives across Homegenius. Kind of a bit of a perfect storm and so like many others in the space across the mortgage and real estate markets, we saw a rapid decline in volumes, as you've seen in some of the other businesses that you follow. And that clearly disrupted our kind of near-term plans for growth.

讓我 - Bose，謝謝你提出這個問題。 Rob 可能會對此進行補充，但讓我只提供一點 Homegenius 更新，因為我認為這涵蓋了你的兩個問題。我認為 2022 年真的有點——從 Homegenius 的許多角度來看是充滿挑戰的一年。有點像一場完美的風暴，就像抵押貸款和房地產市場領域的許多其他人一樣，我們看到交易量迅速下降，正如你在你關注的其他一些企業中看到的那樣。這顯然打亂了我們近期的增長計劃。

We anticipated some of that change in our plans, but we also -- like we all know, the market volume declined at a pace and size that no one contemplated. Certainly, the speed at which it occurred. So the greatest impact across our plans throughout the year and even today has been the rapid decline in title business as the revenue and contribution from this business is off materially year-over-year.

我們預計我們的計劃會發生一些變化，但我們也 - 眾所周知，市場容量以沒有人想到的速度和規模下降。當然，它發生的速度。因此，我們全年乃至今天的計劃受到的最大影響是產權業務的快速下滑，因為該業務的收入和貢獻同比大幅下降。

Regardless of the reasons, the '22 financial performance of Homegenius was just not acceptable from our perspective, which is why we took aggressive expense management actions and are making other adjustments to better position us for 2023 and beyond. So for Homegenius, we reduced overall direct and allocated expenses to your question, including cost of services, approximately 15% to 20% through today. And so given the volatility of the business that continues and specifically related to market volumes and the direction that volume will go both in the real estate and mortgage market, we're not able to provide guidance related to this business. But based on all the seasonality factors and the current run rates in the overall market that are somewhat challenged, we expect the first quarter to be -- continue to be challenging but albeit at a lower expense base, right, as we prepared for it.

無論出於何種原因，從我們的角度來看，Homegenius 的 22 年財務業績都是不可接受的，這就是為什麼我們採取積極的費用管理措施並進行其他調整以更好地為 2023 年及以後做好準備。因此，對於 Homegenius，到今天為止，我們將針對您的問題（包括服務成本）的總體直接和分配費用減少了大約 15% 到 20%。因此，鑑於業務的持續波動，特別是與市場交易量以及房地產和抵押貸款市場交易量的方向相關，我們無法提供與該業務相關的指導。但基於所有季節性因素和當前在整個市場中受到一定挑戰的運行率，我們預計第一季度將 - 繼續具有挑戰性，但儘管費用基數較低，但正如我們為之準備的那樣。

That being said, our team remains focused on developing the high-level components of our platforms and continuing to navigate this business towards a profitable contribution. And that is the focus. And I think by virtue of our actions that we took throughout last year as we saw really the market changed dramatically, I think we're positioned better now, obviously, than we were throughout 2022, positioned towards benefiting from growth, benefiting from a lower expense base. And I think in certain of our businesses, we certainly see them bottoming out. We see new technologies that we're bringing to the market that we're receiving positive feedback, too.

話雖這麼說，我們的團隊仍然專注於開發我們平台的高級組件，並繼續引導這項業務實現盈利貢獻。這就是重點。而且我認為，憑藉我們去年全年採取的行動，因為我們確實看到市場發生了巨大變化，我認為我們現在的定位顯然比整個 2022 年更好，定位於從增長中受益，從較低的成本中受益費用基數。我認為在我們的某些業務中，我們肯定會看到它們觸底反彈。我們看到我們推向市場的新技術也收到了積極的反饋。

And so as we look forward in the year, our focus is to kind of guide this back -- not guide, from a financial guidance point of view, but to navigate the business back to profitability. So that's our focus. And I think that's a little bit of the history of how we've operated throughout the year.

因此，當我們展望這一年時，我們的重點是引導這種回歸——不是從財務指導的角度引導，而是引導業務恢復盈利。這就是我們的重點。我認為這是我們全年運營方式的一部分歷史。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then actually just 1 more. Just given the increased, I guess, flexibility on statutory capital, can you just remind us of sort of the other constraints like debt to capital that you have as we kind of model what could be the level of capital return over the next couple of years?

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。然後實際上只有 1 個。我想，鑑於法定資本的靈活性有所增加，你能否提醒我們一些其他限制，比如你在我們模擬未來幾年的資本回報水平時所擁有的債務資本比？

Yes. So maybe again, Rob and I can maybe tag-team this. I think in terms of -- we -- one of the great things that occurred in the fourth quarter is we crossed over a very important threshold, which was to -- that was 15 years in the making, really since the great financial crisis to kind of move from a regulatory point of view, our negative out-of-sight surplus, to positive, right, which puts us in a situation to pay ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group on a recurring basis, right? And so that, for us, that's a transformational change in the overall capital structure.

是的。所以也許再一次，Rob 和我也許可以組隊這個。我認為，就我們而言，第四季度發生的一件大事是我們跨越了一個非常重要的門檻，那是 15 年的醞釀，真的是自金融危機以來從監管的角度來看，我們的負視線盈餘變成了正數，對吧，這使我們能夠定期從 Radian Guaranty 向 Radian Group 支付普通股息，對吧？因此，對我們來說，這是整體資本結構的轉型變化。

When you think about like binding capital, obviously, the regulatory requirements, I think we're in good shape on from an overall kind of risk perspective. When you look at PMIERs, we've got significant cushions. So from a Radian Guaranty, I think the strength of the current capital structure puts us in a position to pass capital to Radian Group, as Rob and I both stated in our comments.

當你考慮約束資本時，顯然，監管要求，我認為從整體風險的角度來看，我們處於良好狀態。當您查看 PMIER 時，我們有很大的緩衝。因此，從 Radian Guaranty 的角度來看，我認為當前資本結構的優勢使我們能夠將資本轉移給 Radian Group，正如 Rob 和我在評論中所說的那樣。

When you look at leverage, the overall leverage of the business today, we feel really comfortable where we sit. And I think this business -- one of the great things about our business is that it's -- it naturally deleverages very quickly. And so you can see that kind of over time. We also have kind of maturities on our 2 debt securities, which we commented on when we did the 2025 maturity issuance, that they align very well with the capital flow. So we feel like we're in a great financial flexibility position to manage leverage, feel good about where we're at, and we don't think it really creates any barriers for us in the future in terms of our ability to leverage our financial flexibility across our capital structure.

當您查看槓桿率時，即當今企業的整體槓桿率，我們會感到非常自在。我認為這項業務——我們業務的一大優點是——它自然會很快去槓桿化。所以你可以看到那種隨著時間的推移。我們的 2 種債務證券也有某種期限，我們在進行 2025 年到期發行時對此進行了評論，它們與資本流動非常吻合。因此，我們覺得我們在管理槓桿方面處於一個很好的財務靈活性位置，對我們所處的位置感覺良好，而且我們認為這不會在我們未來利用我們的能力方面真正為我們製造任何障礙我們資本結構的財務靈活性。

Yes. Thanks, Rick. And I'll just add, this is Rob. I'll add a constraint on the statutory side. As we said in our remarks, we expect Radian Guaranty for 2023 to distribute $300 million to $400 million up to our holding company. We'd expect that to happen relatively evenly throughout the year. And then in future years, we'd expect the distributions from Radian Guaranty to Group to mirror the statutory earnings of Radian Guaranty. And that is still one of the constraints around ordinary dividends under the Pennsylvania insurance laws. So in terms of sizing that amount of capital flowing up to Radian Group, we think it would mirror closely Radian Guaranty's statutory earnings.

是的。謝謝，里克。我要補充一點，這是羅布。我將在法定方面添加一個約束。正如我們在評論中所說，我們預計 Radian Guaranty 將在 2023 年向我們的控股公司分配 3 億至 4 億美元。我們預計全年會相對均勻地發生這種情況。然後在未來幾年，我們預計從 Radian Guaranty 到 Group 的分配將反映 Radian Guaranty 的法定收益。這仍然是賓夕法尼亞保險法對普通股息的限制之一。因此，就流入 Radian Group 的資本規模而言，我們認為這將密切反映 Radian Guaranty 的法定收益。

Our next question comes from the line of Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I did want to ask about -- well, sorry -- about Radian. I wanted to follow up on Bose's question about just the capital distribution. Maybe talking another way, does the fact that you now have ordinary distributions available, does that change in any way your view around capital return waiting between dividends? Maybe you want to grow the stock dividend a little bit more because now you have more confidence, you don't have to go through the extra approval process. Anything on that?

我確實想問——嗯，抱歉——關於 Radian。我想跟進 Bose 關於資本分配的問題。也許換句話說，您現在可以使用普通分配的事實是否會以任何方式改變您對等待股息之間的資本回報的看法？也許你想增加股票股息，因為現在你更有信心，你不必經過額外的批准程序。有什麼要說的嗎？

Yes. Mihir, thank you. By the way, we love the sounds of children in the background. We've all gotten used to that over the last 3 years, and never feel like you got to apologize for that. But look, I think we have -- thank you for the question. Really, really, I think, thoughtful.

是的。米希爾，謝謝你。順便說一句，我們喜歡背景中孩子們的聲音。在過去的 3 年裡，我們都已經習慣了這一點，從來沒有覺得你必須為此道歉。但是，我想我們已經——謝謝你提出這個問題。真的，真的，我想，深思熟慮。

We've been good -- I think we have a history of being great stewards of capital. I think over the last 5 years, we returned $1.7 billion of capital to shareholders. Last year, we returned $535 million through a combination of $135 million of dividend and $400 million of share buybacks, of which we bought back about 11% of our outstanding shares. And our Board just recently authorized the $300 million in January from a share repurchase plan over the next 2 years.

我們一直很好——我認為我們有成為偉大的資本管家的歷史。我想在過去的 5 年裡，我們向股東返還了 17 億美元的資本。去年，我們通過 1.35 億美元的股息和 4 億美元的股票回購，返還了 5.35 億美元，其中我們回購了約 11% 的已發行股票。我們的董事會最近剛剛在 1 月份批准了未來 2 年股票回購計劃中的 3 億美元。

So I think our track record and our history kind of says we take managing capital very seriously. And I do -- this, as you highlighted and Bose highlighted, this change for us that occurred in December is transformational. It gives us tremendous financial flexibility around how we connect earnings to capital flows to Radian Group, how we manage the overall capital growth from -- capital position to kind of drive growth.

所以我認為我們的往績和歷史表明我們非常重視資本管理。我這樣做 - 正如你強調和 Bose 強調的那樣，12 月發生的這種變化對我們來說是變革性的。它為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性，圍繞我們如何將收益與流向 Radian Group 的資本流動聯繫起來，我們如何管理從資本狀況到某種驅動增長的整體資本增長。

So having said that, the team has worked incredibly hard to get to this point. I couldn't be more proud of them. It's a big, monumental accomplishment. We -- as you know, that's a long-winded way of giving you this answer, sorry. But as you know, we don't comment on kind of future capital plans. But I think again, our track record speaks for itself. And I think we have a track record of managing it appropriately.

所以話雖如此，團隊為達到這一點付出了難以置信的努力。我為他們感到無比自豪。這是一個巨大的、不朽的成就。我們 - 如您所知，這是給您這個答案的冗長方式，抱歉。但如你所知，我們不會對未來的資本計劃發表評論。但我再次認為，我們的業績不言而喻。而且我認為我們有適當管理它的記錄。

We will obviously manage this on any kind of share buybacks as we have in the past on a value-based approach. I think given the economic environment that we're all kind of monitoring very closely today, we're going to take a very balanced approach and make sure that we're considering the changes in the economic environment as we navigate through our capital plan. And then as we have in the past, we'll update you each quarter on kind of our plans and our planned execution from a progress point of view and different capital activities.

顯然，我們將在任何類型的股票回購中管理這一點，就像我們過去在基於價值的方法上所做的那樣。我認為，鑑於我們今天都在密切關注的經濟環境，我們將採取一種非常平衡的方法，並確保我們在製定資本計劃時考慮到經濟環境的變化。然後就像我們過去所做的那樣，我們每個季度都會從進展的角度和不同的資本活動中向您更新我們的計劃和計劃執行情況。

But we're very proud and very happy with where we sit today in terms of our overall capital position and the ability, as Rob described, to continue to release capital from Radian Guaranty based on future earnings as we go forward and puts us in a position to exercise our capital strength as we go forward.

但我們對我們今天的總體資本狀況和能力感到非常自豪和高興，正如 Rob 所描述的那樣，隨著我們前進並使我們處於在我們前進的過程中發揮我們的資本實力。

Got it. And just 1 other question for me. In terms of going to the last thing you mentioned about just the economy and where we fit in just some kind of general softening, is there anything, whether in your portfolio that you're seeing and the environment that you're steering from originator partners, that makes you worry about housing credit specifically? Like obviously, I understand the macro concerns and potential if you have a recession, unemployment goes up. But is there anything related to like credit standards or some -- or just something related to housing specifically that is giving you pause, making you maybe be a little bit more cautious?

知道了。對我來說還有 1 個問題。關於你提到的關於經濟的最後一件事，以及我們在某種普遍疲軟中所處的位置，有沒有什麼，無論是在你所看到的投資組合中，還是在你從發起人合作夥伴那裡引導的環境中，這讓你特別擔心住房信貸？很明顯，如果經濟衰退、失業率上升，我理解宏觀擔憂和潛力。但是，是否有任何與信用標准或某些相關的東西——或者只是與住房相關的東西讓你猶豫不決，讓你可能更加謹慎一點？

It's a great question. It's one Derek and I probably talk about it on a daily basis kind of in the Teams. I would say today, and I think we're cautiously optimistic about kind of where things are because the economy, there are legitimate fears about a recession. I think more economists are kind of leaning towards the direction of that being not an extended harsh kind of environment. But that -- the things that we're encouraged by from a housing -- credit housing value point of view, are really unique to this environment, so maybe coming out of COVID where we have a significant home price appreciation, kind of embedded equity within our existing portfolio.

這是一個很好的問題。這是一個 Derek，我可能每天都在 Teams 中談論它。我今天要說的是，我認為我們對事情的發展持謹慎樂觀的態度，因為經濟存在對經濟衰退的合理擔憂。我認為更多的經濟學家傾向於那種不是長期惡劣環境的方向。但是，從住房信用住房價值的角度來看，我們受到鼓舞的事情對於這種環境來說確實是獨一無二的，所以也許從 COVID 中我們有一個顯著的房價升值，一種嵌入式資產在我們現有的產品組合中。

Today, we have a supply -- demand/supply imbalance across the housing market where you have millennials, as my comments suggested, where you have millennials entering the market at just huge numbers with no homes to buy, especially in our market. Remember, we operate in kind of the bread and butter market of the housing market across the country. We're not in $10 million homes in New York or in Naples, Florida or in San Francisco. We're in the basic first-time homebuyer, middle income, that market is undersupplied by significant numbers. So from a home price appreciation, we see and we challenge every day, we actually see more balance in that and are, I guess, more comforted by that than you might otherwise expect going into a recession.

今天，正如我的評論所暗示的那樣，千禧一代在整個房地產市場中存在供求/供應失衡，千禧一代進入市場的人數眾多，但沒有房屋可買，尤其是在我們的市場上。請記住，我們在全國房地產市場的麵包和黃油市場中運作。我們不在紐約或佛羅里達州那不勒斯或舊金山的 1000 萬美元的房屋中。我們是基本的首次購房者，中等收入，該市場供不應求。因此，從房價上漲來看，我們每天都看到並面臨挑戰，我們實際上看到了更多的平衡，而且我想，這比你預期的經濟衰退更令人欣慰。

So I think when we look at it, we're -- obviously, I'm not -- I wouldn't want to leave you with the impression that we've let our guard down at all. But we do have a level of confidence around housing today that I think informs our view about the future and makes us feel good about kind of our overall position. Derek, do you want to...

所以我認為，當我們審視它時，我們——顯然，我不是——我不想給你留下我們完全放鬆警惕的印象。但我們今天對住房確實有一定程度的信心，我認為這會影響我們對未來的看法，並讓我們對我們的整體狀況感到滿意。德里克，你想...

I would just add. I mean, the credit quality, the underwriting quality continues to be very solid as well as the servicing quality. So when you look at all of those metrics, very positive. From a macroeconomic perspective, Rick alluded to the fact of just supply and demand imbalance, which is kind of helping from a home price perspective. So when we talked last quarter, at that point, the FHFA Index, again, most representative of the business that we write, we saw that decrease in July and August.

我只想補充。我的意思是，信用質量、承保質量以及服務質量仍然非常穩固。因此，當您查看所有這些指標時，非常積極。從宏觀經濟的角度來看，里克提到了供需失衡的事實，從房價的角度來看，這是一種幫助。因此，當我們在上個季度談論 FHFA 指數時，再次最能代表我們所寫的業務，我們看到 7 月和 8 月有所下降。

We've actually seen that kind of flat-line the last several months. So we've talked in the past, our base case is still for home prices did go down. I would say I'm a bit more optimistic than what I was last quarter in terms of some of the data we're seeing from a home price appreciation perspective at this point.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們實際上已經看到了這種平線。所以我們過去談過，我們的基本情況仍然是房價確實下跌了。我想說，就我們目前從房價升值的角度來看的一些數據而言，我比上個季度更加樂觀。

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Hagen with BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

I think I got a couple here. I'm curious how to think about the loss provision on current period defaults going forward. Like which cohort of loans do you see defaults maybe being concentrated? What are the variables at the loan level which you're looking at to make that determination? And then I'm curious how you see pricing developing in response to lower mortgage rates from here? Like are there any cohorts of the market where you could get maybe more aggressive because rates are lower and there's more visibility for certain elements of that kind of borrower cohort?

我想我在這裡有一對。我很好奇如何考慮當前期間違約的損失準備金。您認為違約可能集中在哪一類貸款上？您在做出該決定時正在考慮的貸款級別的變量是什麼？然後我很好奇你如何看待定價以響應從這裡降低的抵押貸款利率？就像市場上有沒有任何群體，你可能會變得更加激進，因為利率較低，而且這種借款群體中某些元素的知名度更高？

So this is Derek. I'll take the 2 parts. In terms of cohorts or what we're looking at in terms of defaults, a lot of which is going to be driven by seasoning. So as you kind of have certain vintages go through their peak kind of default years, you're going to see those go a bigger -- bit higher rate. But in terms of the indicators, I think the traditional ones you're going to look at, right? So it's going to be driven by FICO and LTV. What we're finding in terms of new default is the embedded equity is holding up. So we talked about the embedded equity in our default portfolio. But when we look at new defaults in Q4, again, they gradually shift from a vintage perspective but importantly, they still have significant embedded equity. So that's what we're looking at.

所以這是德里克。我會把這兩個部分。就同類群組或我們正在查看的默認設置而言，其中很多將由調味料驅動。因此，當某些年份的葡萄酒經歷了違約的高峰期時，您會看到它們的違約率更大——更高一點。但就指標而言，我認為你會看到傳統的指標，對吧？所以它將由 FICO 和 LTV 驅動。我們在新違約方面發現的是嵌入式股權。所以我們談到了我們默認投資組合中的嵌入式股權。但是，當我們再次審視第四季度的新違約時，它們會逐漸從老式的角度轉變，但重要的是，它們仍然擁有大量的嵌入式資產。這就是我們正在研究的。

Then on the macro side, what we're looking at is our home price projections and unemployment and reemployment rates, right? So the propensity to cure is driven very much by that reemployment rate and the HPA or embedded equity in the houses. That's why it's very important when we construct the portfolio that we're doing it at a very kind of granular geographic level because that embedded equity can be quite a bit of dispersion in terms of performance embedded equity. So those are some of the things we look at there.

然後在宏觀方面，我們正在看的是我們的房價預測和失業率和再就業率，對吧？因此，治癒的傾向在很大程度上是由再就業率和 HPA 或房屋中的嵌入式資產驅動的。這就是為什麼當我們構建我們在非常精細的地理級別上進行的投資組合時非常重要的原因，因為嵌入式股權在績效嵌入式股權方面可能會有很大的分散性。所以這些是我們在那裡看到的一些東西。

In terms of your second question, in terms of products and given, I think it was related to interest rates and the decline, not a huge impact. The way we would view it is depending upon where rates are, it will affect the persistency potentially. So as we kind of think about that, you'll have different durations. And so that can affect how we would price it. But I would say on the margins, I don't think rates being down 100 basis points significantly affects how we're pricing in different segments.

關於你的第二個問題，從產品和給定的角度來看，我認為是跟利率和下降有關，不是很大的影響。我們看待它的方式取決於利率在哪裡，它可能會影響持久性。因此，當我們考慮這一點時，您將有不同的持續時間。因此，這會影響我們對其定價的方式。但我要說的是，我認為利率下降 100 個基點不會顯著影響我們在不同細分市場的定價方式。

And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Rick Thornberry for closing remarks.

我目前沒有進一步提問。我想將電話轉回給 Rick Thornberry 以作結束語。

Thank you. Thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in Radian. Before we sign off, I have to note the excitement of Sunday Super Bowl matchup as the Philadelphia Eagles, which is home to many of our Radian team, as I'm surrounded by many of them here in Wayne, Pennsylvania, take on my Kansas City Chiefs. We hope you enjoy the game as much as we will. Whoever you favor, I want to wish my Philadelphia-based teammates good luck, but I will be rooting for the Chiefs as they're all quite aware. And we hope you take care, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Thank you again for joining us today, and we will talk soon. Take care.

謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們以及對 Radian 的關注。在我們結束之前，我必須注意週日超級碗比賽的激動人心，因為費城老鷹隊是我們許多拉迪安隊的主場，因為我在賓夕法尼亞州韋恩被許多人包圍，他們將對陣我的堪薩斯隊城市酋長。我們希望您能像我們一樣享受這款遊戲。無論你喜歡誰，我都希望我在費城的隊友們好運，但我會支持酋長隊，因為他們都很清楚。我們希望您保重，我們期待盡快與您交談。再次感謝您今天加入我們，我們很快就會談。小心。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。