Radian Group Inc (RDN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Radian Group's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Radian 集團 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to John Damian, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展高級副總裁約翰·達米安 (John Damian)。

Thank you, and welcome to Radian's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Our press release, which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter, was issued yesterday evening and is posted to the Investors section of our website at www.radian.com.

謝謝，歡迎參加 Radian 2023 年第二季度電話會議。我們的新聞稿包含 Radian 本季度的財務業績，已於昨天晚上發布，並發佈在我們網站 www.radian.com 的投資者部分。

This press release includes certain non-GAAP measures that may be discussed during today's call, including adjusted pretax operating income, adjusted diluted net operating income per share and adjusted net operating return on equity. In addition, specifically for our homegenius segment, other non-GAAP measures in our press release that may be discussed today include adjusted gross profit and adjusted pretax operating income or loss before allocated corporate operating expenses.

本新聞稿包括今天電話會議期間可能討論的某些非公認會計原則措施，包括調整後的稅前營業收入、調整後的攤薄每股淨營業收入和調整後的淨營業股本回報率。此外，特別是對於我們的 homegenius 部門，我們今天可能討論的新聞稿中的其他非公認會計準則指標包括調整後的毛利潤和調整後的稅前營業收入或分配公司營業費用之前的虧損。

A complete description of all of our non-GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit F, and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in press release Exhibit G. These exhibits are on the Investors section of our website.

我們所有非 GAAP 衡量標準的完整描述可在新聞稿附錄 F 中找到，這些衡量標準與最具可比性的 GAAP 衡量標準的調節可在新聞稿附錄 G 中找到。這些附錄位於我們網站的投資者部分。

Today, you will hear from Rick Thornberry, Radian's Chief Executive Officer; and Sumita Pandit, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call is Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements included in our earnings release, and the risk factors included in our 2022 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. These are also available on our website.

今天，您將聽到 Radian 首席執行官 Rick Thornberry 的講話；蘇米塔·潘迪特（Sumita Pandit），首席財務官。 Radian Mortgage 總裁 Derek Brummer 也出席了電話會議的問答部分。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議期間發表的評論將包含前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於當前的預期、估計、預測和假設，這些預期、估計、預測和假設存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果存在重大差異。有關這些風險的討論，請查看我們的收益發布中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明，以及我們向 SEC 提交的 2022 年 10-K 表格和後續報告中包含的風險因素。這些也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Rick.

現在我想把電話轉給里克。

Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today.

下午好，感謝大家今天加入我們。

I am pleased to report another solid quarter for Radian. GAAP revenues grew year-over-year to $290 million. We generated net income of $146 million. Our annualized return on equity was 14.1% in the second quarter. Book value per share increased 12% year-over-year to $26.51. We paid a $35 million dividend to stockholders, reflecting the highest yielding dividend in the industry, and our overall liquidity and capital positions remained very strong, which I will cover in a few minutes.

我很高興地報告 Radian 又一個穩定的季度。 GAAP 收入同比增長至 2.9 億美元。我們創造了 1.46 億美元的淨利潤。第二季度我們的年化股本回報率為 14.1%。每股賬面價值同比增長 12% 至 26.51 美元。我們向股東支付了 3500 萬美元的股息，這是行業中股息收益率最高的，而且我們的整體流動性和資本狀況仍然非常強勁，我將在幾分鐘內介紹這一點。

Despite continued headwinds in the mortgage and real estate markets and continuing macroeconomic uncertainty, our overall performance in the second quarter reflects the resilience of our business model, the strength of our growing insured portfolio, the depth of our customer relationships and the commitment of our team. Our team remains focused across our 3 areas of strategic value creation, growing the economic value and future earnings of our mortgage insurance portfolio, positioning our homegenius business on a path to profitability and value creation, and prudently managing our capital resources.

儘管抵押貸款和房地產市場持續不利，宏觀經濟持續不確定，但我們第二季度的整體業績反映了我們業務模式的彈性、不斷增長的保險投資組合的實力、我們客戶關係的深度以及我們團隊的承諾。我們的團隊仍然專注於戰略價值創造的三個領域，提高抵押貸款保險投資組合的經濟價值和未來收益，將我們的 homegenius 業務定位在盈利和價值創造的道路上，並謹慎管理我們的資本資源。

In terms of growing the economic value of future earnings of our mortgage insurance portfolio, we continue to leverage our proprietary analytics and radar rates platform, focused on driving economic value while calibrating our dynamic risk-based pricing to capitalize on the opportunities that we see in the current market. As a result, we wrote $16.9 billion of high-quality mortgage insurance business in the second quarter of 2023. And we expect to see continued opportunity to put our capital to work at attractive risk-adjusted returns. Our primary mortgage insurance in force, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company, grew 5% year-over-year to $267 billion.

在增加抵押貸款保險投資組合未來收益的經濟價值方面，我們繼續利用我們專有的分析和雷達費率平台，專注於推動經濟價值，同時校准我們基於風險的動態定價，以利用我們在目前的市場。因此，我們在 2023 年第二季度承保了 169 億美元的高質量抵押貸款保險業務。我們預計將繼續有機會利用我們的資本獲得有吸引力的風險調整回報。我們有效的主要抵押貸款保險是我們公司未來盈利的主要推動力，同比增長 5%，達到 2,670 億美元。

As a reminder, during our Investor Day in June, we provided examples of the potential future earnings embedded in our current in-force portfolio, which is not included in our current book value. Our persistency rate remains strong. Given the current interest rate environment and the comparatively low mortgage rates across our portfolio, we expect our persistency rate to remain high, which is positive for future insurance in force growth. We continued to see positive credit performance in our mortgage insurance portfolio during the quarter. Although we generally expect new notices of default to increase in the future as the portfolio naturally seasons, in the second quarter, we saw the number of new defaults decreased as compared to the first quarter, and cures outpaced new defaults by 8%. From a quality perspective, our mortgage insurance portfolio has been well underwritten and has a strong overall credit profile. And it is important to note that the quality of the mortgage industry's loan manufacturing and servicing processes remain strong, including extensive efforts to support borrowers experiencing hardship.

提醒一下，在六月份的投資者日期間，我們提供了我們當前有效投資組合中潛在的未來收益的示例，該投資組合不包含在我們當前的賬面價值中。我們的堅持率仍然很高。鑑於當前的利率環境以及我們投資組合中相對較低的抵押貸款利率，我們預計我們的持續率將保持在較高水平，這對未來保險保力增長有利。本季度我們的抵押貸款保險投資組合繼續呈現積極的信貸表現。儘管我們普遍預計隨著投資組合的自然季節變化，未來新的違約通知將會增加，但在第二季度，我們看到新違約的數量與第一季度相比有所下降，並且治癒的數量比新違約的數量高出8%。從質量角度來看，我們的抵押貸款保險組合承保良好，整體信用狀況良好。值得注意的是，抵押貸款行業的貸款製造和服務流程的質量仍然很高，包括為支持遇到困難的借款人所做的廣泛努力。

It is also worth noting that the increase in interest rates has resulted in higher yields across our $6 billion investment portfolio, which generates incremental income that flows directly to our bottom line. With regards to our homegenius business, although we saw a small increase in revenues in the second quarter as compared to the first quarter, as I noted during our Investor Day, the businesses that make up our homegenius segment continue to be challenged by current market conditions, including higher interest rates and limited inventory, which has constrained mortgage and real estate activity. We are managing the homegenius segment through this challenging environment by focusing on disciplined cost management, including staff reductions, to better align our expenses and resources to the current market and the opportunities we see ahead.

還值得注意的是，利率上升導致我們 60 億美元投資組合的收益率提高，從而產生增量收入，直接流入我們的利潤。關於我們的 homegenius 業務，正如我在投資者日期間指出的那樣，儘管我們第二季度的收入較第一季度略有增長，但構成我們 homegenius 業務的業務繼續受到當前市場狀況的挑戰，包括利率上升和庫存有限，這限制了抵押貸款和房地產活動。我們正在這個充滿挑戰的環境中管理 homegenius 部門，重點是嚴格的成本管理，包括裁員，以便更好地調整我們的費用和資源，以適應當前的市場和我們看到的未來機會。

As I mentioned during our Investor Day, we believe we have a differentiated and valuable solution in our homegenius business, based on the depth of the market relationships, a national footprint across our businesses, our unique real estate data and analytics assets, our innovative digital platforms, leveraging advanced technologies including AI and computer vision, and of course, an experienced and talented team. We maintain a realistic view of the current state and opportunity for homegenius, and we will continue to adjust our cost structure and align our strategy and investments to place homegenius on a path to profitability.

正如我在投資者日期間提到的，我們相信我們的homegenius 業務擁有差異化且有價值的解決方案，基於市場關係的深度、我們業務的全國覆蓋範圍、我們獨特的房地產數據和分析資產、我們創新的數字平台，利用人工智能和計算機視覺等先進技術，當然還有經驗豐富、才華橫溢的團隊。我們對 homegenius 的現狀和機會保持現實的看法，我們將繼續調整我們的成本結構，調整我們的戰略和投資，使 homegenius 走上盈利之路。

And in terms of managing our capital resources, total holding company liquidity increased to $1.3 billion. We continue to expect Radian Guaranty to pay $300 million to $400 million of ordinary dividends during 2023, of which $200 million has already been paid. Radian Guaranty maintains a strong PMIERs position, with excess available assets of $1.7 billion or 41% over its minimum required assets. It is also important to note that in the second quarter, tender offers were completed on 2 outstanding Eagle Re insurance-linked notes that were no longer providing the same level of PMIERs capital relief that they had previously. Sumita will provide more detail on both the current period impact and the long-term financial benefit of these transactions. And we continue to execute our aggregate, manage and distribute mortgage insurance business model, including the placement of a new quota share reinsurance agreement for new business written through June 30, 2024. We believe the strength of our capital position significantly enhances our financial flexibility now and going forward.

在管理我們的資本資源方面，控股公司的流動資金總額增加至 13 億美元。我們仍然預計 Radian Guaranty 將在 2023 年支付 3 億至 4 億美元的普通股息，其中 2 億美元已經支付。 Radian Guaranty 保持著強勁的 PMIER 地位，其可用資產超額達 17 億美元，比其最低要求資產高出 41%。還需要注意的是，第二季度，對 2 份未償還的 Eagle Re 保險相關票據完成了要約收購，這些票據不再提供與之前相同水平的 PMIER 資本減免。 Sumita 將提供有關這些交易的當期影響和長期財務利益的更多詳細信息。我們將繼續執行我們的聚合、管理和分銷抵押保險業務模式，包括為新業務簽訂新的配額份額再保險協議，有效期至2024 年6 月30 日。我們相信，我們的資本狀況實力現在顯著增強了我們的財務靈活性並繼續前進。

As Sumita shared during our Investor Day, we are in an enviable position of having significant optionality regarding uses of our capital. We take a deliberate and balanced approach to capital allocation, which we believe has uniquely positioned us to deliver value to stockholders. And it's important to note that our capital plan is never static, as we strive to maintain flexibility to successfully respond to potential changes in the environment, particularly in this uncertain economy.

正如 Sumita 在投資者日分享的那樣，我們處於令人羨慕的地位，在資本的使用方面擁有很大的選擇權。我們採取深思熟慮和平衡的資本配置方法，我們相信這使我們能夠為股東創造價值。值得注意的是，我們的資本計劃從來都不是靜態的，因為我們努力保持靈活性，以成功應對環境的潛在變化，特別是在當前不確定的經濟環境中。

As we have noted previously, we carefully consider the balance between: organic growth, in order to deploy capital back into our business at the most attractive risk-adjusted returns, the return of capital to stockholders, which is an area we have differentiated from our peers, and inorganic growth investment opportunities.

正如我們之前所指出的，我們仔細考慮了以下兩者之間的平衡：有機增長，以便以最具吸引力的風險調整回報將資本重新部署到我們的業務中，股東的資本回報，這是我們與我們的業務區別開來的一個領域。同行和無機增長投資機會。

Over the years, we have consistently demonstrated a strategic focus on the optimization of our capital structure, and many of you have highlighted our effectiveness in unlocking trapped capital wherever feasible.

多年來，我們一貫表現出對優化資本結構的戰略重點，你們中的許多人都強調了我們在可行的情況下釋放被困資本的有效性。

Let me share a few thoughts on the mortgage and housing markets. In terms of the mortgage market, for 2023, recent mortgage industry origination forecasts call for a bottoming out of the origination market with a decline of approximately 27% compared to last year, followed by a return to growth in 2024. It is important to note that the market decline has been largely driven by a decrease in refinance volume. And while the purchase market is down 15% from last year, it is expected to be slightly higher than the pre-pandemic level of volume in 2019. As I've mentioned before, purchase volume represents the vast majority of our business, including homebuyers seeking a more affordable down payment for their first home. Based on a total mortgage origination market of $1.7 trillion, we expect the private mortgage insurance market in 2023 to be approximately $325 billion, which is at the high end of our prior guidance.

讓我分享一些關於抵押貸款和住房市場的想法。就抵押貸款市場而言，對於 2023 年，最近的抵押貸款行業發放預測顯示，發放市場將觸底反彈，與去年相比下降約 27%，隨後將在 2024 年恢復增長。值得注意的是市場下跌主要是由於再融資量的減少造成的。雖然購房市場比去年下降了15%，但預計2019年的成交量將略高於疫情前的水平。正如我之前提到的，購房量代表了我們業務的絕大多數，包括購房者為他們的第一套住房尋求更實惠的首付。基於 1.7 萬億美元的抵押貸款發放市場總額，我們預計 2023 年私人抵押貸款保險市場規模約為 3,250 億美元，處於我們之前指導的上限。

Volume is projected to be driven primarily by purchase loans, which are estimated to be $1.4 trillion. Excluding the pandemic years of 2020 through 2022, this would represent the largest purchase market in the past 16 years. We view these collective factors as a positive sign of a strong and more stable purchase mortgage origination market.

預計交易量將主要由購買貸款推動，預計金額為 1.4 萬億美元。排除2020年至2022年的大流行年份，這將是過去16年來最大的購買市場。我們認為這些集體因素是購買抵押貸款發起市場強勁且更加穩定的積極信號。

In terms of the housing market, while there continues to be a significant imbalance in housing supply and demand, we have seen housing prices stabilize and more recently begin to rebound. As we mentioned during our Investor Day, first time homebuyer demand is strong, with large millennial and Gen Z generations either being in or soon reaching their prime homebuying years. And while the low inventory and strong market demand continue to create challenges for first-time homebuyers, these dynamics help to mitigate downside risk in terms of home values, which is a positive for our insured portfolio.

從房地產市場來看，雖然住房供需仍然嚴重失衡，但房價企穩並開始回升。正如我們在投資者日期間提到的，首次購房者的需求強勁，大量千禧一代和 Z 世代要么正處於或即將達到購房的黃金時期。雖然低庫存和強勁的市場需求繼續給首次購房者帶來挑戰，但這些動態有助於減輕房屋價值的下行風險，這對我們的保險投資組合來說是積極的。

We believe the resulting pent-up demand provides strong support for continuing purchase market growth in 2024 and beyond. As such, our overall outlook for the housing market remains generally positive over the near and long term. As you've heard me say before, our company is built to withstand economic cycles, significantly strengthened by the PMIERs capital framework, dynamic risk-based pricing and the distribution of risk into the capital and reinsurance markets.

我們認為由此產生的被壓抑的需求將為 2024 年及以後採購市場的持續增長提供強有力的支持。因此，我們對房地產市場的近期和長期總體前景仍然總體樂觀。正如您之前聽我說過的，我們公司是為了抵禦經濟周期而建立的，PMIER 資本框架、基於風險的動態定價以及資本和再保險市場的風險分配顯著增強了我們公司的實力。

Sumita will now cover the details of our financial position. Many of you met her during our Investor Day, and this is her first quarterly earnings call at Radian since being appointed Chief Financial Officer in May. Since joining Radian earlier this year, she has made significant contribution across the organization and I'm very pleased to have her on the team. I also want to personally thank Rob Quigley, our EVP, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; and Dan Kobell, EVP of Finance, for the important interim role they played during this transition. Their leadership, strategic insight and outstanding counsel have been and continue to be incredibly valuable to me and to the broader Radian team.

Sumita 現在將詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。你們中的許多人在我們的投資者日期間見到了她，這是她自 5 月份被任命為首席財務官以來在 Radian 的第一次季度財報電話會議。自從今年早些時候加入 Radian 以來，她為整個組織做出了重大貢獻，我很高興她加入團隊。我還要親自感謝我們的執行副總裁、公司財務總監兼首席會計官 Rob Quigley；以及財務執行副總裁丹·科貝爾 (Dan Kohbell)，感謝他們在此過渡期間發揮的重要臨時作用。他們的領導力、戰略洞察力和出色的建議對於我和更廣泛的 Radian 團隊來說一直並將繼續非常有價值。

Now I will turn the call over to Sumita.

現在我將把電話轉給 Sumita。

Thank you, Rick. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to provide additional details about our second quarter results, which reflect another strong quarter of performance, highlighted by the continued growth of our high-quality mortgage insurance in force portfolio, as well as by the strength and flexibility of our capital and liquidity positions.

謝謝你，瑞克。大家下午好。我很高興提供有關我們第二季度業績的更多詳細信息，這反映了又一個強勁的季度業績，突出表現在我們有效的高質量抵押貸款保險投資組合的持續增長，以及我們資本和資產的實力和靈活性。流動性頭寸。

As reported last night, in the second quarter of 2023, we earned GAAP net income of $146 million or $0.91 per diluted share compared to $0.98 per diluted share in the first quarter. Adjusted diluted net operating income per share for the quarter was also $0.91 compared to $0.98 per share in the first quarter, as reflected in the reconciliations provided in Exhibit G of our press release. We produced a 14.1% annualized return on equity for the quarter and grew our book value per share 12% year-over-year to $26.51 as of June 30.

正如昨晚報導的那樣，2023 年第二季度，我們的 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.46 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.91 美元，而第一季度稀釋後每股收益為 0.98 美元。本季度調整後稀釋後每股淨營業收入也為 0.91 美元，而第一季度每股為 0.98 美元，如我們新聞稿的附錄 G 中提供的調節表所示。截至 6 月 30 日，我們本季度的年化股本回報率為 14.1%，每股賬面價值同比增長 12%，達到 26.51 美元。

First, let's discuss our revenue and related drivers. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we generated $290 million in total revenues during the second quarter compared to $311 million in the first quarter. Our total revenues and net premiums earned in the second quarter were reduced by a onetime increase in ceded premiums earned of $21 million under our insurance-linked note program. This was due to tender offers by certain Eagle reissuers during the period to purchase the notes that supported their reinsurance agreements with Radian Guaranty. We are very pleased with the tender offer results, particularly since these transactions were no longer providing the level of PMIERs capital benefit to Radian Guaranty that they provided in prior years.

首先，讓我們討論一下我們的收入和相關驅動因素。儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰，我們第二季度的總收入仍達到 2.9 億美元，而第一季度的總收入為 3.11 億美元。我們第二季度的總收入和淨保費有所減少，因為我們的保險相關票據計劃所賺取的分出保費一次性增加了 2100 萬美元。這是由於某些 Eagle 再發行人在此期間提出要約收購票據，以支持其與 Radian Guaranty 的再保險協議。我們對要約收購結果非常滿意，特別是因為這些交易不再為 Radian Guaranty 提供前幾年提供的 PMIER 資本收益水平。

Based on current projections and expectations, we expect Radian Guaranty to save approximately $58 million of future ceded premiums over time as a result of these tenders, including a full recovery of the $21 million of the upfront onetime costs within 1 year. Excluding the $21 million impact of the tender offers, our total revenue would have increased by 9% year-over-year, and our net premium yield and net premiums earned would have been in line with the first quarter of 2023. Exhibit D in our press release provides details on the various components of our net premiums earned, and Slide 7 highlights the $0.10 reduction these tender offers had on our net income per share during the quarter.

根據目前的預測和預期，我們預計 Radian Guaranty 通過這些招標，將在未來節省約 5800 萬美元的未來分讓保費，包括在 1 年內全額收回 2100 萬美元的一次性前期成本。排除要約收購帶來的 2100 萬美元影響，我們的總收入將同比增長 9%，我們的淨保費收益率和淨保費收入將與 2023 年第一季度保持一致。新聞稿提供了我們所賺取的淨保費各個組成部分的詳細信息，幻燈片7 強調了這些要約收購使我們本季度的每股淨利潤減少了0.10 美元。

The 2 most significant and consistent drivers of our net premiums earned remain the size and average premium yield of our large in-force mortgage insurance portfolio. Our primary insurance in force grew 5% year-over-year to $267 billion as of June 30. Contributing to the growth of our insurance in force was $16.9 billion of new insurance written for the second quarter, compared to $11.3 billion in the first quarter. We were able to achieve this growth quarter-over-quarter while continuing to increase pricing for recent originations.

我們賺取的淨保費的兩個最重要和最一致的驅動因素仍然是我們大型有效抵押貸款保險投資組合的規模和平均保費收益率。截至6 月30 日，我們的有效主保險同比增長5%，達到2,670 億美元。第二季度新承保的保險金額為169 億美元，而第一季度為113 億美元，這對我們有效保險的增長做出了貢獻。我們能夠實現這一季度環比增長，同時繼續提高近期產品的定價。

As discussed in our Investor Day last month, using the base economic scenario assumptions and inputs outlined in our presentation, our primary insurance in force is expected to be the most significant driver of our future results, with embedded future earnings from the existing portfolio as of the first quarter estimated to be approximately $2.6 billion. While the industry-wide decrease in purchase and refinance originations has provided headwinds over the past year for our new insurance written, it has significantly benefited the persistency rate of our insurance in force, which remained high at 83% in the second quarter based on the trailing 12 months, compared to 72% a year ago. We expect our persistency rates to remain strong given the sharp rise in mortgage rates last year following an extended period of very low rates. 77% of our insurance in force had a mortgage rate of 5% or less as of the end of the second quarter and is, therefore, less likely to cancel in the near term due to refinancing.

正如我們上個月在投資者日所討論的那樣，使用我們演示中概述的基本經濟情景假設和輸入，我們有效的主要保險預計將成為我們未來業績的最重要驅動因素，其中包含截至目前現有投資組合的未來收益第一季度估計約為26億美元。雖然全行業購買和再融資發起量的下降在過去一年給我們新承保的保險帶來了阻力，但它極大地有利於我們現有保險的持續率，根據落後12 個月，而一年前為72%。鑑於去年抵押貸款利率在長期保持極低利率後急劇上升，我們預計我們的持續利率將保持強勁。截至第二季度末，我們 77% 的有效保險的抵押貸款利率為 5% 或更低，因此短期內因再融資而取消的可能性較小。

As shown on Slide 13, and consistent with our prior expectations, the in force portfolio premium yield for our mortgage insurance portfolio remained stable in the second quarter at 38.2 basis points, comparable to the level reported at year-end 2022. With strong persistency rates and the current industry pricing environment, we continue to expect the in-force portfolio premium yields to remain relatively flat over the course of 2023, while the total net yield of our insured portfolio can fluctuate from period to period due to other factors, such as changes in our risk distribution programs, profit commissions earned and single premium policy cancellations. The higher interest rate environment has also increased our investment income, which grew 37% year-over-year to $64 million in this quarter.

如幻燈片 13 所示，與我們之前的預期一致，我們的抵押貸款保險投資組合的有效投資組合保費收益率在第二季度保持穩定在 38.2 個基點，與 2022 年底報告的水平相當。以及當前的行業定價環境，我們仍然預計有效的投資組合保費收益率在2023 年期間將保持相對平穩，而我們的保險投資組合的總淨收益率可能會因其他因素而隨時間波動，例如我們的風險分配計劃、賺取的利潤佣金和躉繳保費保單取消的變化。較高的利率環境也增加了我們的投資收入，本季度投資收入同比增長 37% 至 6400 萬美元。

As shown on Webcast Slide 9, our total investment portfolio of $6 billion consists of well-diversified, highly rated securities. We have significant diversification and conservatism built into the composition of our portfolio, which includes not only diversification between asset classes, but also across industry segments, obligor tenors and in securitized assets across geographies, collateral, vintage and issuers. The book yield on our investment portfolio increased during the second quarter from 3.8% to 4% at quarter end, and the higher rate environment should continue to be positive for the reinvestment of future cash flows.

如網絡廣播幻燈片 9 所示，我們 60 億美元的總投資組合由高度多元化、評級較高的證券組成。我們的投資組合構成具有顯著的多元化和保守性，其中不僅包括資產類別之間的多元化，還包括跨行業領域、債務人期限以及跨地域、抵押品、年份和發行人的證券化資產的多元化。第二季度我們投資組合的賬面收益率從 3.8% 上升至季末的 4%，較高的利率環境應繼續有利於未來現金流的再投資。

While the impact has moderated in 2023, rising interest rates have created an unrealized loss on our investment portfolio reported in AOCI, net of tax, which was $424 million as of the end of the second quarter. Our book value fully reflects the fair value and unrealized losses of our investments, as we do not classify any of our investment securities as held to maturity [counted] at amortized cost. We do not expect to realize these losses given our ability to hold these securities to maturity as they trend to par, due to our significant positive operating cash flows and our other available liquidity options.

雖然影響在 2023 年有所緩解，但利率上升給我們在 AOCI 中報告的投資組合造成了未實現的損失（稅後），截至第二季度末，該損失為 4.24 億美元。我們的賬面價值充分反映了我們投資的公允價值和未實現損失，因為我們沒有將任何投資證券分類為按攤餘成本持有至到期[計算]。由於我們擁有大量正運營現金流和其他可用的流動性選擇，鑑於我們有能力在這些證券趨於平價時持有至到期，我們預計不會實現這些損失。

Our homegenius segment revenues totaled $15 million for the second quarter compared to $13 million for the first quarter. As Rick mentioned, this segment continues to be negatively impacted by the higher rate environment and industry-wide decline in mortgage and real estate transactions.

我們的 homegenius 部門第二季度收入總計 1500 萬美元，而第一季度為 1300 萬美元。正如里克所提到的，該細分市場繼續受到較高利率環境以及整個行業抵押貸款和房地產交易下降的負面影響。

Moving to our provision for losses. The positive trends that we have been experiencing continued into the most recent quarter. As noted on Slide 16, we had a net benefit of $22 million in our mortgage provision for losses in the second quarter, compared to a net benefit of $17 million in the first quarter. The positive benefits in recent periods have been due primarily to defaults curing at rates greater than our previous expectations, in part due to the impact of forbearance programs and the strong home price appreciation experienced in recent years. For the second quarter, the net benefit to our mortgage provision was the result of $63 million of benefit from reserve development on prior period defaults due to favorable cure trends. We are also seeing the benefit of higher claim withdrawals by services. The reserve releases were partially offset by $41 million of loss provision for new defaults reported during the quarter.

轉向我們的損失撥備。我們所經歷的積極趨勢一直持續到最近一個季度。正如幻燈片 16 所示，第二季度我們的抵押貸款損失撥備淨收益為 2200 萬美元，而第一季度的淨收益為 1700 萬美元。最近一段時間的積極效益主要是由於違約修復率高於我們之前的預期，部分原因是寬容計劃的影響和近年來房價的強勁上漲。第二季度，我們抵押貸款撥備的淨收益是由於有利的補救趨勢而從前期違約準備金開發中獲得的 6300 萬美元的收益。我們還看到了更高的服務索賠提款的好處。本季度報告的新違約損失準備金 4100 萬美元部分抵消了準備金釋放。

On Slide 17, we note that the number of new defaults reported to us by services declined in the second quarter of 2023, to 9,800 from 10,600 in the first quarter. Consistent with recent quarters, we maintained our default to claim rate frequency assumption for new defaults at 8%. Our ending primary default inventory as of June 30 was slightly under 20,000 loans, representing a portfolio default rate of 1.98%.

在幻燈片 17 中，我們注意到服務業向我們報告的新違約數量在 2023 年第二季度有所下降，從第一季度的 10,600 起下降至 9,800 起。與最近幾個季度一致，我們將新違約的違約索賠率頻率假設維持在 8%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們期末主要違約庫存略低於 20,000 筆貸款，投資組合違約率為 1.98%。

Turning to our other expenses. For the second quarter, our other operating expenses totaled $90 million, an increase compared to $83 million recognized in the first quarter. Expenses in the second quarter were elevated due to the timing of certain employee compensation and benefits, including our annual share-based incentive grants. Our operating expenses for the quarter included $4 million related to share-based incentive grants and $2 million of severance expenses related to our homegenius segment. Based on our expense savings actions to date and consistent with our previous guidance, we continue to anticipate our 2023 full year consolidated cost of service and other operating expenses to be $380 million to $400 million. This would represent a reduction in these total expenses in line with the higher end of our prior guidance of $60 million to $80 million, or 13% to 17% compared to last year.

轉向我們的其他開支。第二季度，我們的其他運營費用總計 9000 萬美元，比第一季度確認的 8300 萬美元有所增加。由於某些員工薪酬和福利（包括我們的年度股權激勵補助）的時間安排，第二季度的費用有所增加。我們本季度的運營費用包括與股權激勵補助相關的 400 萬美元和與 homegenius 部門相關的 200 萬美元遣散費。根據我們迄今為止的費用節省行動，並與我們之前的指導一致，我們繼續預計 2023 年全年綜合服務成本和其他運營費用為 3.8 億美元至 4 億美元。這意味著總支出將減少，與我們之前指導的上限 6000 萬美元至 8000 萬美元一致，即與去年相比減少 13% 至 17%。

Moving finally to our capital and available liquidity. Based on current performance expectations and consistent with our prior guidance, we expect Radian Guaranty to pay between $300 million to $400 million of ordinary dividends to Radian Group for the full year 2023. Year-to-date, Radian Guaranty has already paid $200 million of ordinary dividends to Radian Group. Radian Guaranty's excess PMIERs available assets over minimum required assets remained stable at $1.7 billion. That's a 41% PMIERs cushion. Our available holding company liquidity increased from $956 million to slightly over $1 billion during the quarter. This increase was net of the payment of our quarterly dividend to Radian Group stockholders of $0.225 per share totaling $35 million, and the purchase of 229,000 shares at a total cost of $5 million under our value-based share repurchase program.

最後轉向我們的資本和可用流動性。根據當前業績預期並與我們之前的指導一致，我們預計 Radian Guaranty 將在 2023 年全年向 Radian Group 支付 3 億至 4 億美元的普通股息。年初至今，Radian Guaranty 已支付 2 億美元向Radian 集團派發普通股息。 Radian Guaranty 的 PMIER 可用資產超過最低要求資產的部分保持穩定在 17 億美元。這是 41% 的 PMIER 緩衝。本季度我們的控股公司可用流動資金從 9.56 億美元增加到略高於 10 億美元。這一增長扣除了我們向 Radian Group 股東支付的每股 0.225 美元的季度股息（總計 3500 萬美元），以及根據我們基於價值的股票回購計劃以總成本 500 萬美元購買的 229,000 股股票。

As Rick mentioned earlier, consistent with our use of risk distribution strategies to effectively manage capital and proactively mitigate risk, in July 2023, Radian Guaranty entered into a quota share reinsurance arrangement with a panel of third-party reinsurance providers.

正如 Rick 之前提到的，與我們使用風險分配策略來有效管理資本並主動降低風險相一致，Radian Guaranty 於 2023 年 7 月與第三方再保險提供商小組達成了配額份額再保險安排。

Under the 2023 QSR agreement, we expect to [cede] risks related to 22.5% of policies issued between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, subject to certain conditions. To recap, our results for this quarter once again highlight the consistent earnings and cash flows generated from our business model. We believe our financial position has never been stronger, given our significant holding company liquidity, sizable PMIERs cushion at Radian Guaranty and the future embedded earnings in our high-quality mortgage insurance in-force portfolio. As illustrated using the assumptions and inputs outlined in our Investor Day presentation last month, even under a stressed macroeconomic scenario that includes a severe decline in home prices consistent with the great financial crisis, we expect to remain resilient and generate positive earnings each year, grow book value, maintain adequate PMIERs cushion and have significant ordinary dividend capacity at Radian Guaranty.

根據2023年QSR協議，我們預計在滿足某些條件的情況下，將[放棄]與2023年7月1日至2024年6月30日期間簽發的22.5%保單相關的風險。回顧一下，我們本季度的業績再次凸顯了我們的業務模式產生的持續盈利和現金流。考慮到我們控股公司的巨大流動性、Radian Guaranty 的巨大 PMIER 緩衝以及我們高質量抵押貸款保險有效投資組合中的未來嵌入收益，我們相信我們的財務狀況從未如此強大。正如我們上個月在投資者日演講中概述的假設和投入所說明的，即使在宏觀經濟壓力較大的情況下，包括與金融危機一致的房價嚴重下跌，我們預計仍將保持彈性並每年產生正收益，增長Radian Guaranty 的賬面價值、保持足夠的 PMIER 緩衝並具有顯著的普通股息能力。

I will now turn the call back over to Rick.

我現在將把電話轉回給里克。

Thank you, Sumita. Before we open the call to your questions, I want to highlight that we are pleased with our results and remain focused on executing our strategic plans. We are driving operational excellence across our businesses and aligning our overall expense structure and resources to reflect the market environment. Our $267 billion mortgage insurance portfolio is highly valuable and is expected to deliver significant earnings going forward. We continue to strategically manage capital by maintaining strong holding company liquidity and PMIERs cushion, while expecting to continue to pay ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group, opportunistically repurchasing shares and paying the highest yielding dividend in the industry to stockholders.

謝謝你，蘇田。在我們開始回答大家的問題之前，我想強調我們對我們的結果感到滿意，並將繼續專注於執行我們的戰略計劃。我們正在推動整個業務的卓越運營，並調整我們的整體費用結構和資源以反映市場環境。我們 2,670 億美元的抵押貸款保險投資組合價值極高，預計未來將帶來可觀的收益。我們繼續通過保持強勁的控股公司流動性和PMIER緩衝來戰略性地管理資本，同時預計將繼續向Radian Group支付Radian Guaranty的普通股息，機會性地回購股票並向股東支付業內最高收益率的股息。

And finally, I want to recognize our team for helping to drive our strong results and for the outstanding work they do every day. And now, operator, we would be happy to take questions.

最後，我想對我們的團隊表示認可，他們幫助我們取得了優異的成績，並感謝他們每天所做的出色工作。現在，接線員，我們很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from the line of Bose George with KBW.

我們的第一個問題來自 Bose George 和 KBW 的線路。

I wanted to ask first just about share buybacks. You've obviously been somewhat quieter on that front the last couple of quarters. Just help us think about when we could see more activity there.

我想先問有關股票回購的問題。過去幾個季度你在這方面顯然比較安靜。請幫助我們思考什麼時候我們可以看到更多的活動。

Thanks, Bose. This is Sumita here. It's nice to speak with all of you today. So I think Bose, we are taking a pretty deliberate and measured approach to how we think about our excess capital return given the uncertain economy. As far as our share return in this year is concerned, in the first half of this year, we've returned about $90 million to shareholders, including dividends and share repurchases. We do have a strong track record of managing capital. As you know, we've returned about $1.75 billion of capital over the last 5 years.

謝謝，博斯。這裡是住田。今天很高興與大家交談。因此，我認為 Bose 在經濟不確定的情況下，正在採取一種非常審慎和謹慎的方法來考慮我們的超額資本回報。就我們今年的股票回報而言，今年上半年，我們向股東回報了約9000萬美元，包括股息和股票回購。我們在管理資本方面確實擁有良好的記錄。如您所知，過去 5 年我們返還了約 17.5 億美元的資本。

We've bought back approximately 1/3 of our outstanding shares in a similar time period. And we think that it is prudent for us to hold some excess capital today, given the uncertain macroeconomic environment. I think if you look at our ROEs, they were a little lower in this quarter at 14.1%. Adjusted for the tender, that number would have been 15.7%, very, very comparable to our first quarter ROE. And we think that as we go along, we will continue to take decisions on the optimum capital return to shareholders given this macroeconomic environment.

我們在相似的時期內回購了大約 1/3 的流通股。我們認為，鑑於宏觀經濟環境的不確定性，目前持有一些過剩資本是謹慎的做法。我想，如果你看看我們的 ROE，就會發現本季度的 ROE 略低，為 14.1%。根據招標調整後，該數字為 15.7%，與我們第一季度的 ROE 非常非常接近。我們認為，在當前的宏觀經濟環境下，我們將繼續就股東的最佳資本回報做出決定。

Okay. Great. That makes sense. And then actually, I just wanted to clarify on your expense guidance. Does that include the OpEx, the cost of services and the policy acquisition costs? Or is it just the first 2 of those line items?

好的。偉大的。這就說得通了。實際上，我只是想澄清一下你們的費用指導。這是否包括運營支出、服務成本和保單獲取成本？或者只是這些訂單項中的前 2 個？

It's just the first 2 of those line items, the operating expense, the other operating expenses and the cost of services, which is the $380 million to $400 million guidance that we had previously given.

這只是這些項目中的前兩項，即運營費用、其他運營費用和服務成本，這是我們之前給出的 3.8 億至 4 億美元的指導。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harter with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的道格·哈特 (Doug Harter)。

I believe in your prepared remarks, you talked about still being able to increase pricing during the quarter. I guess can you just talk about the pacing of price increases that you're seeing relative to some market expectations for improved housing market and improved economic outlook today versus 3 or 6 months ago?

我相信您在準備好的講話中談到了在本季度仍然能夠提高定價。我想您能否談談您所看到的價格上漲的節奏，以及與 3 或 6 個月前相比，今天相對於一些市場對住房市場改善和經濟前景改善的預期？

Doug, it's Derek. So in terms of the market in Q2, I'd characterize it as very similar to Q1. I think I characterized it there as being positive, disciplined and rational. So we continue to see a hardening market. So in our principal segment, the black box segment radar rates, we continued to see pricing increases in Q2. I would say the pace of the increase kind of came down a bit. Still increasing but not at the same pace we probably saw in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but still kind of positive directionally.

道格，這是德里克。因此，就第二季度的市場而言，我認為它與第一季度非常相似。我認為我將其描述為積極、有紀律和理性。因此，我們繼續看到市場的硬化。因此，在我們的主要細分市場，即黑匣子細分市場雷達費率中，我們繼續看到第二季度的價格上漲。我想說的是，增長速度有所下降。仍在增長，但與我們去年第四季度和今年第一季度可能看到的速度不同，但仍然是積極的方向。

And then it appears that your 2Q volume, you had a bigger sequential pickup than most of your peers. Is there any particular areas where you've found you were kind of winning more business? Or is it kind of broad-based?

然後，你的第二季度交易量似乎比大多數同行都有更大的連續回升。您是否發現在某些特定領域贏得了更多業務？或者它的基礎廣泛嗎？

Yes, kind of broad-based. It was really the pickup was in the radar rate segment. So that's where we really picked up. We were able to increase pricing across the board. And again, when we kind of see shifts in terms of volume, which we talked about at Investor Day, it's really going to be focused on where we find relative value and where we find kind of the highest economic value. So if you saw any movement with respect to credit mix, it was probably a little bit on the higher FICO, where we saw relative value as kind of the driver.

是的，基礎廣泛。這確實是雷達速率段的拾音器。這就是我們真正有所收穫的地方。我們能夠全面提高定價。再說一次，當我們看到交易量方面的變化時，我們在投資者日談到了這一點，它實際上將集中在我們發現相對價值的地方以及我們發現最高經濟價值的地方。因此，如果你看到信貸組合方面有任何變動，可能是 FICO 較高，我們認為相對價值是一種驅動因素。

Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I wanted to first maybe just start with the reinsurance transaction. Just to clarify, the $21 million recovery you talked about, that's just from lower ceded premiums. Is that right? Or is there something else going on there?

我想首先也許只是從再保險交易開始。需要澄清的是，您所說的 2100 萬美元的複蘇只是來自較低的讓出保費。是對的嗎？或者還有其他事情發生嗎？

Yes. So the $25 million was the ceded premiums that went up. So it's a contra revenue line. So think of it as our revenue went down by $21 million because of the transaction. And the $58 million that we expect to get a benefit for will be a savings in the future years. So that would be our ceded premiums going down in the future years by $58 million.

是的。因此，2500 萬美元就是上漲的分出保費。所以這是一條相反的收入線。因此，我們的收入因該交易而減少了 2100 萬美元。我們預計獲得的 5800 萬美元福利將在未來幾年節省下來。因此，我們的分出保費在未來幾年將減少 5800 萬美元。

Right. And of that 50, I think you said $21 million would be within the next year.

正確的。我想您說過，在這 50 個項目中，明年將有 2100 萬美元。

That's right. So we expect a cash breakeven within the next 1 year. So I think, in short, this is a really good NPV transaction for us, Mihir. And as we look at it, we are looking at our performance excluding this tender offer. And as we look at our numbers, I think our revenue would have been $25 million higher if we had not executed on the tender.

這是正確的。因此，我們預計未來一年內將實現現金收支平衡。所以我認為，簡而言之，這對我們 Mihir 來說是一筆非常好的 NPV 交易。當我們審視它時，我們正在關注不包括此次要約收購的業績。當我們查看我們的數字時，我認為如果我們沒有執行招標，我們的收入將會增加 2500 萬美元。

Our net premium yield would have been 3.2 basis points higher. Our EPS would have been $0.10 higher, and our ROE would have been 160 basis points higher, excluding the impact of this tender. And because of this tender, we expect that we will actually have a higher future dividend capacity. So think about the $58 million that we have saved in future ceded premium, that should help us increase our dividend capacity in future years.

我們的淨保費收益率將高出 3.2 個基點。如果不包括本次招標的影響，我們的每股收益將提高 0.10 美元，淨資產收益率將提高 160 個基點。而且由於這次招標，我們預計我們未來實際上將擁有更高的分紅能力。因此，想想我們在未來的讓出保費中節省的 5800 萬美元，這應該有助於我們提高未來幾年的股息能力。

Okay. Got it. And then I just wanted to ask about the 2018 deal. Like I recognize it's hit the delinquency trigger currently, but given it also is not providing a PMIERs benefit, would that be a candidate in the future? Or because it's hit the delinquency trigger, you basically are not likely to do that one?

好的。知道了。然後我只是想問一下2018年的交易。就像我認識到它目前已經觸犯了拖欠觸發器，但鑑於它也沒有提供 PMIER 福利，那它會成為未來的候選者嗎？或者因為它觸犯了犯罪觸發器，你基本上不太可能這樣做？

So we do have a call option in November for this year for the 2018 ones, and we will look at our options and take a decision on that.

因此，我們確實在今年 11 月為 2018 年的股票提供了看漲期權，我們將研究我們的選擇並就此做出決定。

Okay. And then maybe just asking about the paid claims, just switching to the business. In terms of the paid claims, they're running at a pretty low level relative to history. I think there was only 91 claims paid this quarter and 80 last quarter, which obviously is quite low. And my question is really, when does this normalize back to, I guess, the pre-pandemic pre-foreclosure levels, or something more of a normal run rate level? Is there a cliff from a standing standpoint, just given the foreclosure programs expiring, et cetera? Just trying to understand what that glide path looks like and when we get back to what, I guess, would be a normal low environment?

好的。然後也許只是詢問已付索賠，然後轉向業務。就已賠付索賠而言，與歷史相比，它們的運行水平相當低。我認為本季度只有 91 起索賠，上季度只有 80 起，這顯然是相當低的。我的問題是，我猜這種情況什麼時候會恢復到大流行前止贖前的水平，或者更正常的運行率水平？考慮到取消抵押品贖回權計劃即將到期等因素，從站立的角度來看是否存在懸崖？只是想了解滑翔路徑是什麼樣子，以及當我們回到正常的低環境時？

Yes, I think it's a really good question. I wish I had a future ball that I could look into and predict it, Mihir. It's really hard to predict the future, as you know. I think what we can say is that we are taking a conservative view about how we think about the macroeconomic scenario. Our performance till date has actually been consistently better than our expectations. But as you said, if you look at the average direct lien that we've paid this quarter, it was about $36,400. And as you know, our severity assumptions that we use when we reserve for a new default is higher. It's about $60,000. So we are continuing to see consistently better performance than our expectations, and we expect to continue to be conservative as we forecast our performance here. But Derek and Rick, if you have other thoughts.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的問題。我希望我有一個未來的球，我可以研究並預測它，米希爾。如您所知，預測未來確實很難。我認為我們可以說的是，我們對宏觀經濟形勢的看法持保守態度。迄今為止，我們的表現實際上一直好於我們的預期。但正如您所說，如果您查看本季度我們支付的平均直接留置權，就會發現約為 36,400 美元。如您所知，當我們為新的違約保留時，我們使用的嚴重性假設更高。大約是 60,000 美元。因此，我們繼續看到比我們預期更好的表現，並且我們預計在預測我們的表現時將繼續保持保守。但是德里克和瑞克，如果你們有其他想法。

Yes, I'll jump in. So Bose (sic) [Mihir], it's tough to say. I mean, one of the phenomenons we had in the portfolio is just the embedded equity, and so we've seen very high cure rates. So particularly in our pending claim kind of bucket, so at very unusually high levels in terms of that cure rate. And so that's certainly been a positive. If you look at kind of that default portfolio, if you take an index-based approach, over 80% has 20% or more equity. So until you kind of have a turnover in the portfolio, that does put downward pressure in a positive way in terms of potential paid claims. So you probably need to see a significant turnover in the portfolio.

是的，我會插話。所以 Bose（原文如此）[Mihir]，這很難說。我的意思是，我們在投資組合中遇到的現象之一就是嵌入股權，因此我們看到了非常高的治愈率。因此，特別是在我們待決的索賠類別中，就治愈率而言，處於非常不尋常的高水平。所以這當然是積極的。如果你看一下這種默認投資組合，如果你採用基於指數的方法，超過 80% 的人擁有 20% 或更多的股權。因此，在投資組合出現一定程度的周轉之前，這確實會對潛在的已賠付索賠產生積極的下行壓力。因此，您可能需要看到投資組合的大幅周轉。

Yes. And we are really is kind of the law of small numbers right now, just kind of watching as this thing kind of evolves through the cycle. So I think as Sumita and Derek said, we're watching it carefully and I think being appropriately prudent about trying to factor in too much as we go forward.

是的。我們現在確實遵循小數定律，只是觀察這種事情在周期中的演變。因此，我認為正如 Sumita 和 Derek 所說，我們正在仔細觀察，並且我認為在我們前進的過程中要適當謹慎地嘗試考慮太多因素。

Got it. And my last question, just -- Derek, just to follow up on the -- I understand it's an index-based portfolio approach that the 20% equity stat that you gave, like that 80% have over 20% equity, what would have been the rate like typically in, I don't know, 2015, 2017 around that pre-pandemic, I guess. What would be the typical equity rate in your pending [default] portfolio?

知道了。我的最後一個問題，德里克，只是為了跟進，我知道這是一種基於指數的投資組合方法，你給出的20% 的股權統計數據，比如80% 擁有超過20% 的股權，那麼會發生什麼？我猜，我不知道，2015 年、2017 年大流行前的情況是這樣的。您待定的[默認]投資組合中的典型股本利率是多少？

Yes. I'm probably not going to -- I'm not going to guess on that lower, but I don't have a percentage off the top of my head in terms of kind of the embedded equity. But if you think about that, just looking at the run-up in home prices kind of after that period of time, it would be significantly less. And so -- I can't think of any time in history where we would have had this much embedded equity in the default portfolio.

是的。我可能不會——我不會猜測這個更低的數字，但就嵌入股權而言，我並沒有想到任何百分比。但如果你想一想，只要看看那段時間之後房價的上漲，就會明顯減少。因此，我想不出歷史上任何時候我們都會在默認投資組合中擁有如此多的嵌入股權。

Maybe more of a normal amortization kind of embedded equity over time with small HPA compared to kind of a 2021 ramp up in HPA. So I think the comparison is, to Derek's point, probably 2 different scenarios.

與 2021 年 HPA 的增加相比，隨著時間的推移，小 HPA 可能更多地是一種正常的攤銷嵌入權益。所以我認為，按照德里克的觀點，比較可能是兩種不同的場景。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Rick Thornberry for any closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想將會議交還給 Rick Thornberry 先生做閉幕致辭。

Thank you, and thank you all. Appreciate you joining us today. Appreciate the questions and a good discussion. And most of all, appreciate your interest in Radian and the team here. We look forward to talking to each of you as -- in the coming months as we have an opportunity to and talk about how we're executing our business plans as we've laid out here. So have a great day, and look forward to talking to you soon. Thank you.

謝謝你們，也謝謝大家。感謝您今天加入我們。感謝提問和良好的討論。最重要的是，感謝您對 Radian 及其團隊的興趣。我們期待著在接下來的幾個月裡與你們每一個人交談，因為我們有機會討論我們如何執行我們在這裡制定的業務計劃。祝您有美好的一天，並期待很快與您交談。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝大家度過美好的一天。