濱特爾 (PNR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Pentair Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

歡迎參加濱特爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁雪莉·哈伯德 (Shelly Hubbard)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome to Pentair's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our third quarter performance as outlined in the morning's press release.

謝謝業者，歡迎參加濱特爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。與我通話的有我們的總裁兼執行長 John Stauch；和我們的財務長鮑勃·菲什曼 (Bob Fishman)。在今天的電話會議上，我們將提供上午新聞稿中概述的第三季業績的詳細資訊。

On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.

在濱特爾投資者關係網站上，您可以找到我們的收益發布和幻燈片，其目的是補充我們在今天電話會議期間準備好的言論，並提供我們將參考的GAAP 和非GAAP 財務指標之間差異的協調表。所提供的非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代或優於根據公認會計原則編制的財務績效指標。它們作為額外的澄清項目包括在內，以幫助投資者進一步了解公司的業績以及這些項目和事件對財務表現的影響。

Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您，在今天的演示中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，即對未來事件的預測、預測或其他陳述。請聽眾注意，這些陳述存在一定的風險和不確定性，其中許多風險和不確定性難以預測，並且通常超出濱特爾的控制範圍。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。我們建議聽眾仔細查看我們最新的表格 10-Q 和表格 10-K 中的風險因素。

Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, you can reference our Pentair investor overview and Investor Day presentations on our IR website. Please visit Pentair Investor Relations website to click and click on Events and presentations to find these materials.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開始提問。（操作說明）提醒一下，您可以在我們的 IR 網站上參考 Pentair 投資者概述和投資者日演示。請造訪濱特爾投資者關係網站，點擊「活動和演示」以尋找這些資料。

I will now turn the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Shelly, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with the executive summary on slide 4. We are very pleased with the strong performance of our balanced water portfolio. The success of our transformation initiatives and solid execution in a dynamic global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Our resilient strategy across our move, improve and enjoy water segment was evident in our ability to diversify and mitigate risk as we drive long-term shareholder value.

謝謝你，雪莉，大家早安。讓我們從投影片 4 上的執行摘要開始。我們對平衡水產品組合的強勁表現感到非常滿意。我們的轉型措施取得了成功，並在充滿活力的全球宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境中堅定執行。我們在搬遷、改善和享受水領域的彈性策略體現在我們在推動長期股東價值的同時實現多元化和降低風險的能力。

For example, in the third quarter, we delivered double-digit adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS growth year-over-year the triple-digit margin expansion despite slightly lower sales. Adjusted operating income was up 13% and adjusted EPS was up 16%, while ROS expanded 310 basis points to 24.1%. Both flow and pool delivered triple-digit margin expansion and pool grew sales by 7% in Q3. We achieved record free cash flow so far this year totaling $629 million. This sets a record post the invent spin-off from Pentair in 2018. We continue to follow a disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation and are very proud of our dividend aristrocrat status, marking a 48-year streak of rising dividends.

例如，在第三季度，儘管銷售額略有下降，但我們實現了兩位數的調整後營業收入和調整後每股收益同比增長三位數的利潤率擴張。調整後營業收入成長 13%，調整後每股盈餘成長 16%，ROS 成長 310 個基點至 24.1%。Flow 和 Pool 都實現了三位數的利潤成長，且 Pool 在第三季的銷售額成長了 7%。今年迄今為止，我們的自由現金流達到創紀錄的 6.29 億美元。這創下了 2018 年 Pentair 發明分拆後的紀錄。我們繼續遵循嚴格和平衡的資本配置方法，並對我們的股息貴族地位感到非常自豪，這標誌著股息連續 48 年上升。

For our over 10,000 Pentair employees I want to thank you for your dedication to deliver for our customers and create value for our share owners. Your tireless hard work led to another quarter of impressive results. Thank you. I also want to extend my heartfelt sympathies for those affected by the recent hurricanes. I can only imagine how scary and devastating that can be.

對於我們 10,000 多名濱特爾員工，我要感謝你們為我們的客戶提供服務並為我們的股東創造價值的奉獻精神。你們的不懈努力帶來了又一個季度的驕人業績。謝謝。我還要向最近遭受颶風影響的人們表達衷心的同情。我只能想像這將是多麼可怕和毀滅性的。

Moving to guidance. We are raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance to around $4.27, representing an approximate 14% increase year-over-year. This is due to our strong performance year-to-date and confidence in our ongoing ability to operate effectively in a changing environment. Bob will provide more details later in the call.

轉向指導。我們將全年調整後每股盈餘指引提高至 4.27 美元左右，年增約 14%。這是由於我們今年迄今為止的強勁表現以及對我們在不斷變化的環境中持續有效運作的能力的信心。鮑勃將在稍後的電話會議中提供更多詳細資訊。

Let's turn to slide 5. As noted last quarter, when we look at each of our three segments and the verticals within each, we have seen areas of great opportunity and some that have remained slightly pressured. For example, in flow, our commercial vertical reached another new sales record. Higher interest rates in a slow housing market continued to impact our residential vertical, and our industrial vertical has experienced the effects of delayed CapEx spend from customers.

讓我們轉到投影片 5。正如上個季度所指出的，當我們審視我們的三個細分市場以及每個細分市場中的垂直領域時，我們看到了充滿機會的領域，以及一些仍然面臨輕微壓力的領域。例如，在流量方面，我們的商業垂直領域又創下了新的銷售記錄。緩慢的房地產市場中的較高利率繼續影響我們的住宅垂直領域，而我們的工業垂直領域則受到了客戶資本支出延遲的影響。

Within water solutions, our commercial filtration business remains strong, and our Manitowoc ICE business performed well amidst the normalizing environment and difficult year-over-year comparison. Higher interest rates continue to impact our residential business and global economic pressures have affected international business.

在水解決方案領域，我們的商業過濾業務仍然強勁，我們的馬尼托瓦克 ICE 業務在正常化的環境和艱難的同比比較中表現良好。較高的利率持續影響我們的住宅業務，全球經濟壓力也影響了國際業務。

Our first commercial PFAS certified filtration product that was launched in Q2 had a solid start. We now have 10 products that meet the new NSF certification standard of 20 parts per trillion. Given the increasing focus on water quality and the rising interest in point-of-use filtration systems, are enthusiastic about the long-term growth potential of these products.

我們的首款商用 PFAS 認證過濾產品於第二季推出，並取得了良好的開端。我們現在有 10 個產品符合新的 NSF 認證標準：兆分之二十。鑑於人們對水質的日益關注以及對使用點過濾系統的興趣日益濃厚，人們對這些產品的長期增長潛力充滿熱情。

Lastly, in pool, while sales grew year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter, sustained higher interest rates and a slower housing market continue to impact pool demand, predominantly in new and remodeled pools. As mentioned last quarter, new in-ground pools in 2024 are expected to be near the 60,000 range compared to roughly 17 -- 2,000 in 2023 to 78,000 in 2019 for industry data. That said, our aftermarket business continued to perform well in Q3. We believe the pool industry is highly appealing with favorable mega trends and unique competitive advantages for Pentair.

最後，在泳池方面，雖然銷售額連續第二季年增，但持續的利率上升和房地產市場放緩繼續影響泳池需求，主要是新建和改建泳池的需求。如上季所提到的，產業數據顯示，2024 年新增地下泳池預計將接近 60,000 個，而 2023 年約為 17 - 2,000 個，2019 年為 78,000 個。儘管如此，我們的售後業務在第三季繼續表現良好。我們相信泳池產業極具吸引力，具有有利的大趨勢和濱特爾獨特的競爭優勢。

For instance, with climate change being an important issue, we believe Pentair is in a strong position to meet the growing demand for smart, sustainable products. We have led the way by pioneering variable speed pumps that can serve energy and reduce costs, and we are continuing to innovate with smart, sustainable products. And we expect to continue to benefit from a favorable housing migration to the Sun Belt states, which represents a large mix of our pool sales.

例如，隨著氣候變遷成為一個重要議題，我們相信濱特爾有能力滿足對智慧、永續產品日益增長的需求。我們率先推出了可提供能源並降低成本的變速泵，並且我們將繼續透過智慧、永續的產品進行創新。我們預計將繼續受益於向陽光地帶各州的有利住房遷移，這代表了我們聯營銷售的很大一部分。

Despite the near-term economic challenges that we expect for new and remodeled pools, we remain confident in Pentair's ability to drive long-term growth and margin expansion. In general, we are very pleased with success and diversification across our move, improve and enjoy water segment as we believe it enables us to manage risk effectively.

儘管我們預計新建和改造泳池近期會面臨經濟挑戰，但我們仍然對濱特爾推動長期成長和利潤擴張的能力充滿信心。總的來說，我們對我們的搬遷、改善和享受水務領域的成功和多元化感到非常高興，因為我們相信這使我們能夠有效地管理風險。

Let's turn to slide 6. We have made steady progress with our transformation initiatives. As mentioned during our March 2024 Investor Day, we anticipate that the most substantial productivity savings for us will come from sourcing and operational excellence. To date, we have successfully completed and integrated a majority of wave 1 and 2 in sourcing. We are also optimizing our global footprint to better align with our focused and balanced water portfolio. We have implemented strategic value-based pricing across our portfolio, and we have taken actions to drive efficiencies across the organization to be our strategic objectives. We've also made progress on 80-20 even though it is still early in the stages.

讓我們轉到投影片 6。我們的轉型措施取得了穩定進展。正如我們在 2024 年 3 月投資者日期間所提到的，我們預計最顯著的生產力節省將來自於採購和卓越營運。迄今為止，我們已成功完成並整合了採購中第一波和第二波的大部分工作。我們也正在優化我們的全球足跡，以更好地與我們專注且平衡的水產品組合保持一致。我們在整個產品組合中實施了基於價值的策略定價，並採取行動提高整個組織的效率作為我們的策略目標。儘管仍處於早期階段，但我們在 80-20 方面也取得了進展。

During Q3, we completed the 80-20 analysis across most of our revenue streams, and we trained additional employees, bringing the total to over 1,200. We are executing action plans to achieve quick wins, such as exiting unprofitable and less profitable revenue in Quad 4, while focusing on driving profitable core sales growth in Quad 1 and 2. We are greatly motivated by the early insights of 80-20 and the proactive measures our teams are implementing to drive sustainable, profitable growth.

在第三季度，我們完成了大部分收入來源的 80-20 分析，並培訓了更多員工，使總數超過 1,200 人。我們正在執行行動計劃以實現快速獲勝，例如退出第四季度的無利可圖和利潤較低的收入，同時專注於推動第四季度和第二季度的盈利核心銷售增長。80-20 的早期見解以及我們的團隊為推動可持續的盈利增長而採取的積極措施極大地激勵了我們。

Before I turn it over to Bob, let's turn to slide 7, which highlights our third quarter key takeaways. Importantly, Transformation continued to drive strong margin expansion, adjusted operating income and earnings growth despite little benefit from volume growth. Early insights into 80-20 are driving further confidence that it can accelerate our transformation initiatives to drive more focused and profitable growth. We increased our full year 2024 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $4.27, reflecting an approximate 14% increase year-over-year driven by solid execution and strong year-to-date free cash flow.

在將其交給 Bob 之前，讓我們先看幻燈片 7，其中重點介紹了我們第三季的關鍵要點。重要的是，儘管銷售成長幾乎沒有帶來任何好處，但轉型繼續推動利潤率的強勁擴張、調整後的營業收入和獲利成長。對 80-20 的早期洞察進一步增強了我們的信心，相信它可以加速我們的轉型計劃，從而推動更專注和有利可圖的成長。我們將 2024 年全年調整後每股盈餘指引上調至約 4.27 美元，在穩健的執行力和年初至今強勁的自由現金流的推動下，年增約 14%。

Lastly, we believe we are well positioned to address opportunities for favorable secular trends, which include concerns about access to clean, safe and reliable water, increased awareness of human made contaminants impacting water composition taste and quality, growing environmental concerns driving consumers' desire to reduce their carbon footprint, aging commercial, public and municipal infrastructure, interest in outdoor healthy living with people gathering pools for exercise and fun and favorable housing migration of the Sun Belt states, which represents a large mix of our pool sales.

最後，我們相信我們有能力抓住有利的長期趨勢的機會，其中包括對獲得清潔、安全和可靠的水的擔憂，對影響水成分味道和質量的人為污染物的認識的提高，日益增長的環境問題促使消費者渴望減少碳足跡，老化的商業、公共和市政基礎設施，人們對戶外健康生活的興趣，人們聚集在泳池中鍛煉和娛樂，以及陽光地帶各州有利的住房遷移，這代表了我們泳池銷售的很大一部分。

I will now pass the call over to Bob will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?

我現在將把電話轉接給鮑勃，他將更詳細地討論我們的業績和財務表現。鮑伯？

Good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide 8. We achieved another strong quarter of quality earnings with triple-digit margin expansion and double-digit adjusted income and EPS growth despite lower volume. Sales outperformed our expectations as did margin and adjusted earnings.

大家早安。讓我們從幻燈片 8 開始。儘管銷量較低，但我們又實現了強勁的季度盈利，利潤率實現了三位數的增長，調整後收入和每股收益實現了兩位數的增長。銷售額超出了我們的預期，利潤率和調整後收益也超出了我們的預期。

In Q3, sales were $993 million, down 2%. Adjusted operating income increased 13% to $239 million. ROS expanded 310 basis points to 24.1%, driven primarily by Transformation and adjusted EPS increased 16% to $1.09. Core sales were down 1% year-over-year, driven by 8% growth in pool, which was offset by a 7% decline in flow and a 3% decline in water solutions. In the prior year period, both flow and water solutions were able to ship orders from a larger backlog as the supply chain improved.

第三季銷售額為 9.93 億美元，下降 2%。調整後營業收入成長 13%，達到 2.39 億美元。活性氧主要受轉型推動，成長 310 個基點至 24.1%，調整後每股盈餘成長 16%，至 1.09 美元。核心銷售額年減 1%，主要受到水池成長 8% 的推動，但流量下降 7% 和水解決方案下降 3% 抵消了這一增長。去年同期，隨著供應鏈的改善，流量和水處理解決方案都能夠從大量積壓訂單中出貨。

In 2024, our backlogs returned to more normalized levels. Similar to John's earlier comments, our results continue to highlight the power of our balanced water portfolio, the success of our transformation initiatives, and the dedication and hard work of our entire Pentair team globally.

2024 年，我們的積壓訂單恢復到更正常化的水平。與約翰先前的評論類似，我們的結果繼續凸顯了我們平衡水產品組合的力量、我們轉型舉措的成功以及我們整個濱特爾全球團隊的奉獻和辛勤工作。

Please turn to slide 9. Flow sales declined 7% year-over-year compared to a near record quarter last year. Residential sales declined 11% as higher interest rates continued to pressure residential end markets. Commercial sales rose 3%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales growth. And industrial sales were down 10%, driven largely by delayed CapEx. As we noted last quarter, we were starting to see signs of economic uncertainty causing the delay in projects that we had scheduled for the second half of 2024.

請翻到投影片 9。與去年接近創紀錄的季度相比，流量銷售額年減 7%。由於利率上升繼續給住宅終端市場帶來壓力，住宅銷售量下降了 11%。商業銷售額成長 3%，標誌著連續第九個季度銷售額年增。工業銷售額下降 10%，主要是由於資本支出延遲。正如我們上季度指出的那樣，我們開始看到經濟不確定性的跡象，導致我們原定於 2024 年下半年進行的專案推遲。

Segment income grew 7%, and return on sales expanded 280 basis points to 22.2%, marking the first time flows ROS has reached or exceeded 22%. The strong margin expansion was a result of continued progress on our transformation initiatives and favorable mix.

部門營收成長 7%，銷售回報率擴大 280 個基點至 22.2%，標誌著流量 ROS 首次達到或超過 22%。利潤率的強勁成長是我們轉型措施持續取得進展和有利組合的結果。

Please turn to slide 10. In Q3, water solutions sales declined 3% to $290 million, driven by declines in both commercial and residential. We expected our commercial business to be down in 2024 in light of a record prior year, which was driven by Manitowoc Ice's ability to deliver on significant backlog orders and a larger commercial services project rollout.

請翻到投影片 10。第三季度，受商業和住宅銷售下滑的推動，水解決方案銷售額下降 3%，至 2.9 億美元。鑑於上一年創紀錄的水平，我們預計我們的商業業務將在 2024 年出現下滑，這是由 Manitowoc Ice 交付大量積壓訂單的能力和更大的商業服務項目推出所推動的。

Manitowoc Ice continued to exceed our expectations by achieving our acquisition business case target two years early in 2023. Within commercial water solutions, filtration sales grew again in Q3. Segment income declined 6% to $64 million and return sales contracted 80 basis points to 22.2% as higher productivity was more than offset by higher inflation and lower volume. ROS has expanded 820 basis points over the last three years.

Manitowoc Ice 於 2023 年提前兩年實現了我們的收購業務案例目標，繼續超越我們的預期。在商業水解決方案中，過濾銷售額在第三季再次成長。部門收入下降 6% 至 6,400 萬美元，退貨銷售額收縮 80 個基點至 22.2%，因為生產率的提高被通膨上升和銷售下降所抵消。ROS 在過去三年中成長了 820 個基點。

Please turn to slide 11. In Q3, pool sales increased 7% to $331 million. Segment income was $113 million, up 24% and return on sales increased 470 basis points to 34%, driven by sales growth and transformation.

請翻到投影片 11。第三季度，聯營銷售額成長 7%，達到 3.31 億美元。在銷售成長和轉型的推動下，部門營收為 1.13 億美元，成長 24%，銷售報酬率成長 470 個基點，達到 34%。

Please turn to slide 12. We are very pleased with the success of our transformation initiatives. We are committed to a goal of 24% return on sales by 2026 year-end as mentioned at our March 2024 Investor Day. We are off to a fast start after increasing our initial 2024 ROS guide of 22% to our current guide of 23%. We have achieved $70 million of transformation savings year-to-date on our way to an expected $100 million for the full year. These 2024 savings are part of our aspiration of $260 million of savings by 2026 year-end, which, in that case, would drive a ROS of approximately 26%.

請翻到投影片 12。我們對轉型措施的成功感到非常高興。正如 2024 年 3 月投資者日所述，我們致力於在 2026 年底實現 24% 的銷售回報率目標。在將最初的 2024 年 ROS 指南 22% 提高到目前指南 23% 後，我們開始快速啟動。年初至今，我們已實現了 7,000 萬美元的轉型節省，全年預計將節省 1 億美元。2024 年的這些節省是我們在 2026 年底節省 2.6 億美元的願望的一部分，在這種情況下，這將使 ROS 提高約 26%。

Please turn to slide 13. On the left side, the four quadrants illustrate how we are prioritizing our business through the lens of customers and products. Those falling quadrant 1 are our highest revenue customers and products, while those in quadrant 4 reflect the opportunity to reduce the complexity and cost to serve across our portfolio. As we take actions across all four quadrants, we expect 80-20 to accelerate our transformation efforts and drive core sales growth and further margin expansion in the years ahead. As John mentioned, we are in the early stages of 80-20 and making good progress.

請翻到投影片 13。左側的四個像限說明了我們如何透過客戶和產品的角度來確定業務的優先順序。下降的象限 1 是我們收入最高的客戶和產品，而像限 4 的客戶和產品則反映了降低我們整個產品組合服務的複雜性和成本的機會。當我們在所有四個像限中採取行動時，我們預計 80-20 將在未來幾年加速我們的轉型工作並推動核心銷售成長和進一步的利潤率擴張。正如約翰所提到的，我們正處於 80-20 的早期階段，並且取得了良好的進展。

Please turn to slide 14. In Q3, we delivered strong free cash flow of $234 million, driven by higher net income from continuing operations and significant improvement in working capital. Year-to-date, we achieved record free cash flow of $629 million post the invent separation. We also deployed capital through reinvestment to drive future growth, repay variable rate debt, repurchase shares and pay quarterly dividends. Our net debt leverage ratio is now 1.4 times, down from 2.1 times a year ago. During the quarter, we repurchased $50 million of shares for a total of $100 million this year. We have an additional $500 million available on our share repurchase program.

請翻到投影片 14。在持續經營淨利潤增加和營運資本顯著改善的推動下，第三季我們實現了 2.34 億美元的強勁自由現金流。今年迄今為止，我們在發明分離後實現了創紀錄的 6.29 億美元自由現金流。我們也透過再投資來部署資本，以推動未來成長、償還可變利率債務、回購股票和支付季度股息。我們的淨債務槓桿率目前為 1.4 倍，低於一年前的 2.1 倍。本季度，我們回購了 5,000 萬美元的股票，今年回購總額為 1 億美元。我們的股票回購計畫還有額外 5 億美元的可用資金。

Lastly, our ROIC was over 15%. Long term, we are targeting high teens ROIC. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and have flexibility to strategically allocate additional capital to area with the highest shareholder returns.

最後，我們的投資報酬率超過 15%。從長遠來看，我們的目標是青少年的投資報酬率較高。我們計劃保持資本紀律，並靈活地策略性地將額外資本分配到股東回報最高的領域。

Moving to slide 15. For the full year, we are increasing our adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $4.27, which is up roughly 14% year-over-year. Also for the full year, we expect sales to be approximately $4.075 billion to $4.085 billion or roughly flat to down 1%, driven by a challenging economy. This is unchanged from our previous guidance. We expect adjusted operating income to increase approximately 11%. We continue to drive approximately $100 million in transformation savings this year.

轉到投影片 15。對於全年，我們將調整後每股盈餘指引提高至約 4.27 美元，年增約 14%。同樣，在充滿挑戰的經濟推動下，我們預計全年銷售額約為 40.75 億美元至 40.85 億美元，或大致持平至下降 1%。這與我們先前的指導沒有改變。我們預計調整後營業收入將成長約 11%。今年我們將繼續推動約 1 億美元的轉型節省。

For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to be approximately $965 million to $975 million, down approximately 1% to 2%. We expect fourth quarter adjusted operating income to increase approximately 13%. We're also introducing strong adjusted EPS guidance for the fourth quarter of approximately $1.02 up roughly 17%. This guidance reflects continued global macroeconomic challenges and strategic actions to improve our water portfolio's profitability and growth opportunities.

我們預計第四季銷售額約為 9.65 億至 9.75 億美元，下降約 1% 至 2%。我們預計第四季度調整後營業收入將成長約 13%。我們也推出了第四季強勁的調整後每股盈餘指引，約 1.02 美元，成長約 17%。該指引反映了持續的全球宏觀經濟挑戰和旨在提高我們水務投資組合獲利能力和成長機會的策略行動。

We're excited about the progress we have made this year on Transformation, which has been a significant cultural change for our company. We're also very pleased with the early stages of 80-20 and expect the long-term benefits of both Transformation and 80-20 to drive long-term shareholder value.

我們對今年在轉型方面取得的進展感到興奮，這對我們公司來說是一次重大的文化變革。我們對 80-20 的早期階段也非常滿意，並期望轉型和 80-20 的長期利益能夠推動長期股東價值。

I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A after which John will have a few closing remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.

我現在想將電話轉給接線員進行問答，然後約翰將發表一些結束語。接線員，請開通提問線。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指令）Deane Dray，RBC 資本市場。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Maybe we can start with value-based pricing because this can really be a needle mover for you. Can you give us a sense of how much of this is automated? Can you size the impact? And just to confirm, is this now enterprise-wide implementation?

謝謝。大家早安。也許我們可以從基於價值的定價開始，因為這對您來說確實是一個推動因素。您能否讓我們了解其中有多少是自動化的？您能衡量影響力嗎？只是為了確認一下，這現在是企業範圍內的實施嗎？

So thank you for the question, Deane. I think, first of all, I'd say it is going to be and can be a value mover. But I would say to your second part of that question, we're in the early stages.

謝謝你的提問，迪恩。我認為，首先，我想說它將成為並且可以成為價值推動者。但我想說的是，對於這個問題的第二部分，我們正處於早期階段。

And as a reminder, across all these transformation initiatives it's what prompts me to go back to 80-20 because it's a lot easier to do the value-based pricing in Quad 1 and to make sure that you're getting that right on those products that are most liable to your customers and they go to your -- pretty standard and best customers versus trying to focus your time on Quad 4, 2, and 3.

提醒一下，在所有這些轉型舉措中，這促使我回到 80-20，因為在 Quad 1 中進行基於價值的定價並確保您在這些產品上得到正確的定價要容易得多那些對您的客戶最負責任的人，他們會去找你的——相當標準和最好的客戶，而不是試圖把你的時間集中在Quad 4、2 和3 上。

And I think when we started the value-based pricing exercise, we were doing it pretty much across all quadrants. We have introduced and rolled this out this playbook to every business. But I think we're farther along in areas like pool and some of the global businesses are further behind, Deane. So great opportunity in the future for sure.

我認為當我們開始基於價值的定價活動時，我們幾乎在所有像限都這樣做了。我們已向每家企業介紹並推出了這本手冊。但我認為我們在台球等領域走得更遠，而一些全球業務則進一步落後，迪恩。未來一定有這麼好的機會。

Great to hear. And then just can you give some context about -- there was reference about some delays in CapEx spending by customers we're not surprised. Maybe it's related to the election, but can you just tie that together in terms of demand sentiment projects getting pushed, et cetera?

很高興聽到。然後您可以提供一些背景資訊嗎？也許這與選舉有關，但您能否將其與推動需求情緒項目等聯繫起來？

Yes. I mean this primarily relates to our flow business and some of the larger projects on Beer Membranes and some of our larger beverage customers. And I think that we still feel optimistic that we're going to see those projects come through. But I think the investment profile isn't at the level for our customers that they're comfortable with yet. So I think they're delaying them several quarters. That's really what it relates to Deane.

是的。我的意思是，這主要與我們的流動業務以及啤酒膜上的一些較大項目以及我們的一些較大的飲料客戶有關。我認為我們仍然對看到這些項目的成功感到樂觀。但我認為投資狀況尚未達到我們客戶滿意的水平。所以我認為他們推遲了幾個季度。這確實與迪恩有關。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Morning everyone. John could you talk about what you're seeing in pool after your price increase in early September and how you would assess the channel inventory headed into '25 in pool? And then obviously, you mentioned strong price in pool overall. I think in the past, you've been a bit concerned regarding price versus inflation, but would you say pricing is holding up well versus inflation at this point?

大家早安。John 您能否談談在 9 月初提價後您在庫存中看到的情況以及您將如何評估進入「25 庫存」的通路庫存？顯然，您提到了整體價格強勁。我認為過去，您一直有點擔心價格與通貨膨脹的關係​​，但您是否認為目前價格相對於通貨膨脹保持良好？

Yes, I'll take the first part. I'll let Bob chime in here a little as well. I think, first of all, I think the market and the industry is playing out generally the way we expected it to after we tweaked it slightly after our Q2 earnings. We're seeing some of the stronger key states continue to have sell-through, and we feel like the inventory is pretty well balanced. And then I think we're going to see a little bit extra demand coming out of Florida here with hurricanes, and we got to make sure we're ramping up and able to facilitate that as well.

是的，我會選擇第一部分。我也讓鮑伯在這裡插話一下。我認為，首先，我認為市場和行業在我們在第二季度收益後稍微調整後，總體上正在按照我們預期的方式發展。我們看到一些較強的關鍵州繼續銷售，我們認為庫存相當平衡。然後我認為我們將看到佛羅裡達州因颶風而產生一些額外的需求，我們必須確保我們正在增加並能夠促進這一點。

On the pricing side, they have, as I mentioned earlier, have been further along in the value-based pricing, and we also have pretty good mix that we're able to pull the levers on to help optimize the pricing overall, which is really just the overall receipts of the revenue and making sure that our customers and customers' customers are buying the higher-end solutions.

在定價方面，正如我之前提到的，他們在基於價值的定價方面走得更遠，而且我們也有很好的組合，我們能夠利用槓桿來幫助優化整體定價，即實際上只是整體收入收入，並確保我們的客戶和客戶的客戶購買更高端的解決方案。

So overall, I think the year is playing out where we wanted it to, and we're still very optimistic that next year will be even a better year since we think the overall pool builds are at a lower end. And we're going to see a recovery in the aftermarket and the remodeling next year. So we're feeling pretty optimistic about 2025. Bob, I don't know if you want to add?

因此，總的來說，我認為這一年的發展符合我們的預期，而且我們仍然非常樂觀地認為明年將是更好的一年，因為我們認為整體池建設處於較低水平。明年我們將看到售後市場和改造的復甦。所以我們對 2025 年感到非常樂觀。鮑勃，不知道你是否要補充？

Yes, just on price and inflation, I would say we've done a pretty good job of forecasting price and inflation. We had said roughly 2 points would read out at the company level. And that's about what we saw. We saw 3 points in Q1, 1 point in Q2, 2 points in Q3 and then, call it, 1 to 2 points in Q4. Some of that movement is due to product mix in the quarter. Some of it is due to the compare versus the previous year. But overall, it's been pretty level pricing at that 2 points. From an inflation perspective, we had guided to 2% to 3% of the total cost, and that's roughly how it's playing out as well.

是的，就價格和通膨而言，我想說我們在預測價格和通膨方面做得相當不錯。我們說過大約 2 點將在公司層級宣讀。這就是我們所看到的。我們在 Q1 中看到 3 分，在 Q2 中看到 1 分，在 Q3 中看到 2 分，然後在 Q4 中看到 1 到 2 分。這一變化的部分原因是本季的產品組合。其中一些是由於與上一年的比較。但總的來說，這兩點的定價相當水平。從通膨的角度來看，我們指導總成本為 2% 到 3%，目前的情況也大致如此。

John, I know it's early, but can I ask you a follow-up on the hurricane impact, like maybe what you've seen in the past, give us some perspective on what it could look like? I assume there's a delayed sort of remodeling impact or something like that, that maybe impacts next year? And any sizing might be helpful.

約翰，我知道現在還為時過早，但我能否請您了解一下颶風影響的後續情況，就像您過去所看到的那樣，讓我們對颶風的影響有一些看法？我認為有一種延遲的改造影響或類似的影響，這可能會影響明年？任何尺寸都可能有幫助。

Yes. First of all, hurricanes devastating for those involved. So we certainly don't root for weather events. But we're servicing a channel and servicing dealers, and it's all hands on deck to make sure that our customers are being able to serve their customers. So we usually see pumps, which are the main demand product that could be affected, certainly from water damage. And people, if they can, want to get those tools up and running and make sure that they stay clear. So every hurricane is different, there is no playbook and model. Florida is a pretty important pool state for us, and I'm sure we'll see some -- a little bit of demand here that we factored into our guide.

是的。首先，颶風對相關人員造成了毀滅性的打擊。所以我們當然不會支持天氣事件。但我們正在為通路和經銷商提供服務，我們將全力以赴確保我們的客戶能夠為他們的客戶提供服務。因此，我們通常會看到泵，這是可能受到影響的主要需求產品，當然會受到水損壞的影響。如果可以的話，人們希望啟動並運行這些工具，並確保它們保持清晰。所以每次颶風都是不同的，沒有劇本和模式。佛羅裡達州對我們來說是一個非常重要的泳池州，我相信我們會看到一些——我們在指南中考慮到的一些需求。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe just first off, I wanted an update on the productivity savings outlook. I think before you guided about 100 million for the year, so maybe 30 million or so left in Q4, a strong run rate entering the new year next year. So maybe help us understand kind of what sort of productivity we should expect in '25 when you're taking the aggregate of 80-20 and the base transformation plan, please?

也許首先，我想了解生產力節省前景的最新情況。我認為，在您指導今年的銷量約為 1 億之前，因此第四季度可能還剩下 3000 萬左右，明年進入新的一年時，運行率會很高。那麼，也許可以幫助我們了解，當您採用 80-20 的總和以及基本轉型計劃時，我們應該期望在 25 年獲得什麼樣的生產力？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Julian. Again, we were very pleased with the transformation readout in the third quarter, to your point, are tracking towards that $100 million of transformation savings this year. after doing roughly $70 million last year, which means another $30 million in Q4.

是的。謝謝你的提問，朱利安。同樣，我們對第三季的轉型結果感到非常滿意，根據您的觀點，今年的轉型節省將達到 1 億美元。去年銷售額約為 7,000 萬美元，這意味著第四季將再賺 3,000 萬美元。

Overall, back at the March Investor Day, we had talked about driving to an aspirational 26% ROS, which would include $260 million of savings in '24, '25 '26. By doing $100 million this year, I would say we're off to a good start. So think about $160 million spread over the next two years, call it, 80-80 would be a good starting point from a transformation perspective.

總體而言，早在三月的投資者日，我們就討論瞭如何實現理想的 26% ROS，其中包括在 2026 年 24 月、25 日節省 2.6 億美元。透過今年的 1 億美元，我想說我們有了一個好的開始。因此，考慮一下未來兩年 1.6 億美元的分佈，從轉型的角度來看，80-80 將是一個很好的起點。

And again, we're not committing to the 26% right now. We're still on that 24%. But overall, this fast start to the transformation savings is giving us a lot more confidence.

再說一次，我們現在不承諾 26%。我們仍然停留在 24% 的水平。但總體而言，轉型節省的快速啟動給了我們更多信心。

And maybe just my follow-up would be around the pace of sort of revenue turnaround in water and flow. Understanding flow, you've got these project delays and maybe a low visibility on where the projects start to move more freely. And then water, you had the sort of the tough comp in Manitowoc Ice, for example. Maybe just help us understand kind of the confidence in either of those seeing a positive sort of sales trend year-on-year in the next 12 months?

也許我的後續行動將圍繞著水和流量的收入週轉速度進行。了解流程後，您將遇到這些項目延遲，並且可能無法了解專案開始更自由移動的位置。然後是水，例如馬尼托瓦克冰公司的那種艱難的組合。也許只是幫助我們了解那些在未來 12 個月內看到同比積極銷售趨勢的人的信心？

Yes. First of all, I think that we're very pleased with the way our commercial revenue streams have held up and even though we had some more difficult year-over-year comps, we're still seeing sequential movement that gives us an encouraging outlook for those businesses. We are still 50% exposed across the portfolio to residential. And that's where we've seen almost six to some quarters in a row now of year-over-year challenges.

是的。首先，我認為我們對商業收入流的保持方式感到非常滿意，儘管我們的同比比較比較困難，但我們仍然看到連續的變化，這給我們帶來了令人鼓舞的前景對於那些企業。我們的投資組合中仍有 50% 的風險敞口是住宅。這就是我們現在連續六個到幾個季度看到的同比挑戰。

And clearly, as a company, we're rooting for interest rate movements and hoping that mortgage rates decline and overall get a little jump start in the residential movement, meaning people removing houses or people building houses. And we still think that's several quarters away. And so we're continuing to work the transformation levers. We are encouraged by the prospects of growth next year and we do see early signs that, that will be achievable.

顯然，作為一家公司，我們支持利率變動，並希望抵押貸款利率下降，並在住宅運動中總體上有所推動，這意味著人們搬走房屋或建造房屋。我們仍然認為這還需要幾個季度。因此，我們將繼續利用轉型槓桿。我們對明年的成長前景感到鼓舞，並且我們確實看到了早期跡象表明這是可以實現的。

And as a reminder, to add to Bob's transformation, growth will help productivity. So we've been doing a lot of this without the contribution of growth in the transformation. So if we can continue these programs and get growth on top, we're pretty encouraged on what we can achieve.

提醒一下，為了促進鮑伯的轉型，成長將有助於提高生產力。所以我們做了很多這樣的事情，卻沒有在轉型中做出成長的貢獻。因此，如果我們能夠繼續這些計劃並實現成長，我們將對我們能夠取得的成就感到非常鼓舞。

Steve Tusa, J.P. Morgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Can you just clarify maybe how much of the revenue decline in flow and water the non-pool stuff was -- is that all market? Or is that some of this 80-20 initiatives? And then just on the pool pricing, I mean it did accelerate quite a bit here. I think quarter-to-quarter, what do you expect for full pricing heading into the fourth quarter and into next year?

您能否澄清一下，非泳池設施的流量和水收入下降了多少——這就是全部市場嗎？或者這是 80-20 計劃中的一部分？然後就池定價而言，我的意思是它確實在這裡加速了很多。我認為按季度計算，您對第四季度和明年的全面定價有何預期？

I'll take the first one, and I'll have Bob answer the second one. This is generally what I would say is all market, primarily residential and agriculture spaces, Steve, and we're probably thinking in the second half, we'd see better forms of recovery here, and we just haven't -- as we adjusted in the six plus six, we're not counting on that now. And so I think they're doing a good job on cost, and they're working through this. Obviously, these are easier comparisons as we wrap into next year. But right now, it's pretty much the residential and agricultural markets that are challenged.

我會選擇第一個，然後讓鮑伯回答第二個。我想說的是，這通常是所有市場，主要是住宅和農業空間，史蒂夫，我們可能會在下半年考慮，我們會在這裡看到更好的復甦形式，但我們只是沒有——因為我們調整為六加六，我們現在不指望這一點。所以我認為他們在成本方面做得很好，而且他們正在解決這個問題。顯然，當我們進入明年時，這些比較更容易。但目前，面臨挑戰的主要是住宅和農業市場。

And on pricing for pool to get to the 2% for the total company, pool will be somewhere for the year between 2.5% to 3%. And again, they've gone from 4% in Q1 to 1% in Q2 to 4% here in Q3, and then that moderates a little bit in Q4. So that lumpiness, again, attributable to value-based pricing, the mix of the products, those types of things and the compare versus the prior year. So overall, feeling good that 2.5% to 3% price reading out for pool this year after such large increases in the previous years.

至於池的定價要達到整個公司的 2%，今年池的價格將在 2.5% 到 3% 之間。再次，他們從第一季的 4% 上升到第二季的 1%，再到第三季的 4%，然後在第四季略有放緩。因此，這種波動性再次歸因於基於價值的定價、產品組合、這些類型的事物以及與前一年的比較。總體而言，在前幾年大幅上漲之後，今年泳池價格上漲 2.5% 至 3%，感覺很好。

Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

布萊恩布萊爾，奧本海默。

Thank you. So level set on Transformation, Bob, you mentioned the $150 million remaining 80-80 or thereabout in terms of the 2025, '26 outlook? Is it fair to say that you're pacing ahead of the initial plan and perhaps there's -- as much as you've been referencing the 26% and the $260 million contribution toward that is aspirational, that you're perhaps going to see runway above that in terms of transformation savings and an even higher loss target in time?

謝謝。那麼鮑勃，關於轉型的水平設定，您提到了 2025 年、26 年前景中剩餘 80-80 美元的 1.5 億美元？可以公平地說，你們的進度超前於最初的計劃嗎？的及時損失目標而言？

Certainly, that's our goal. I mean, again, we're looking to return to growth and drive transformation. The 260 that we gave back at Analyst Day, got off a faster start. We had guided to 75 at the beginning of the year and are now at $100 million. So the transformation savings were led by sourcing. If you'll remember, wave 1 and wave 2 are complete this year. Wave 3 will complete next year, and then we'll start that process over again. What I really liked about the third quarter, though, is we had balanced really across sourcing, manufacturing and operational spend below the line. So good balance across those three areas from a transformation perspective.

當然，這就是我們的目標。我的意思是，我們再次尋求恢復成長並推動轉型。我們在分析師日反饋的 260 起步更快。我們年初的目標是 75 美元，現在是 1 億美元。因此，轉型節省是由採購帶來的。如果你還記得的話，第一波和第二波今年已經完成。第三波將於明年完成，然後我們將重新開始這個過程。不過，我真正喜歡第三季的是，我們在線下的採購、製造和營運支出之間實現了真正的平衡。從轉型的角度來看，這三個領域之間取得了很好的平衡。

The other thing that's really increasing our confidence is 80-20 and that being an enabler to the transformation. While it really is a growth play, we are very focused right now on Quad 4 and reducing a lot of the complexity within Quad 4. There's a number of techniques now that we've rolled out the 80-20 training to over 1,200 people in the company, there's different techniques that we're using in Quad 1 versus Quad 4.

另一件真正增強我們信心的是 80-20，它是轉型的推動者。雖然這確實是一個成長遊戲，但我們現在非常關注 Quad 4 並減少 Quad 4 中的大量複雜性。現在我們已經向公司 1,200 多名員工推出了 80-20 培訓，我們使用了多種技術，在 Quad 1 和 Quad 4 中使用了不同的技術。

And again, think of Quad 4 as being our B customers, our B products roughly 4% of our revenue. And we're looking at things there like reducing the number of SKUs, being able price, providing a standard size, minimum order quantities, extending lead times, offering fewer but standard options.

再說一遍，將 Quad 4 視為我們的 B 客戶，我們的 B 產品大約占我們收入的 4%。我們正在研究諸如減少 SKU 數量、定價、提供標準尺寸、最小訂購量、延長交貨時間、提供更少但標準的選項等問題。

So those are the techniques that the teams are using there. Again, our goal is to treat all of our customers fairly, but differently. So there is an opportunity to reduce the complexity in Quad 4. As a reminder, the cost to serve in Quad 4 is somewhere between 15% to 25% of our overall costs. And so that creates an opportunity as well. And we have lots of really great examples so far now that we've rolled it out to the team, we've freed up capacity in a number of our manufacturing sites. We've reduced the resources to support, we've reallocated dollars from Quad 4 to improve the customer experience in Quad 1.

這些就是團隊正在使用的技術。同樣，我們的目標是公平但不同地對待所有客戶。因此有機會降低 Quad 4 的複雜性。提醒一下，Quad 4 的服務成本占我們總成本的 15% 到 25% 之間。這也創造了機會。到目前為止，我們有很多非常好的例子，現在我們已經將其推廣給團隊，我們已經釋放了許多製造工廠的產能。我們減少了支援資源，並重新分配了 Quad 4 的資金來改善 Quad 1 的客戶體驗。

So it's really starting to take traction and improve our overall transformation story. And again, once we eliminate that complexity in Quad 4, we can start to spend more time on improving the customer experience, which we've already started in the first quadrant. And so again, think about 65% of our revenue sitting in that Quad 1, where we have the opportunity to improve product availability, lead times, on-time delivery, provide better service to our channel, either through automation, to training, insight into their businesses, product information. So again, it's a major cultural change as we embark on 80-20. And we think that's going to be a huge accelerator for the transformation plan.

因此，它確實開始受到關注並改善我們的整體轉型故事。再說一次，一旦我們消除了 Quad 4 中的複雜性，我們就可以開始花更多的時間來改善客戶體驗，我們已經在第一個象限中開始了這一點。再說一次，想想我們 65% 的收入來自 Quad 1，我們有機會提高產品可用性、交貨時間、按時交付，為我們的管道提供更好的服務，無論是透過自動化、培訓還是洞察力進入他們的業務、產品資訊。再說一次，當我們進入 80-20 時代時，這是一次重大的文化變革。我們認為這將成為轉型計劃的巨大加速器。

That all makes sense, and trends are very encouraging. Given the operational cadence that you now have, if we do have a stronger growth environment in 2025, you're obviously well positioned to lever that. In addition, your balance sheet is now in pretty good shape. I can't imagine that being any pushback there. How is your deal pipeline looking at this point? And is your team focused on capital deployment over the near term to hopefully further lever a stronger demand environment going forward?

這一切都是有道理的，趨勢也非常令人鼓舞。考慮到您現在的營運節奏，如果我們在 2025 年確實擁有更強勁的成長環境，那麼您顯然處於有利地位。此外，您的資產負債表現在狀況良好。我無法想像那裡會有任何阻力。目前您的交易管道如何？您的團隊是否專注於短期內的資本部署，以期進一步利用未來更強勁的需求環境？

Always looking right now, I think we are very mindful of making sure that anything we look at has to drive returns. And I would say the pipeline is a trickle. It isn't gushing and so we're mindful of how precious our capital is, and we're putting it to the best use possible given all the global and economic environment that we're working within.

我認為我們總是專注於現在，並非常注意確保我們關注的任何事情都能夠帶來回報。我想說的是，管道是細流。這並不是滔滔不絕，因此我們意識到我們的資本有多麼寶貴，考慮到我們所處的全球和經濟環境，我們正在盡可能地利用它。

And to answer your question, we are very pleased with the leverage within the company. When we closed on the Manitowoc deal back in July of 2022, we had levered up to 2.7, 2.8. A year ago, we were at 2.1 and now we're at 1.4 times. So it really is a testament to the EBITDA that we've driven, the EBITDA will be over $1 billion this year and driving that free cash flow to repay the debt and overall, improve our leverage multiple. The balance that we had in Q3 from a capital perspective was very strong. We were able to continue to invest in growth. We paid down some of the debt, continued with the share repurchase and obviously continued with that dividend streak.

回答你的問題，我們對公司內部的影響力感到非常滿意。當我們在 2022 年 7 月完成馬尼托瓦克交易時，我們的槓桿率已達到 2.7、2.8。一年前，我們 2.1 倍，現在是 1.4 倍。因此，這確實證明了我們推動的 EBITDA，今年 EBITDA 將超過 10 億美元，並推動自由現金流償還債務，並整體提高我們的槓桿倍數。從資本角度來看，我們在第三季的平衡非常強勁。我們能夠繼續投資於成長。我們償還了部分債務，繼續進行股票回購，並且顯然繼續了連續派息的勢頭。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

薩雷·博羅迪茨基，傑弗里斯。

This is James, on for Saree. I wanted to kind of go back on 80-20. So I know that it's still in the early stage but you did analysis on most of the revenue stream here. So can you kind of provide more color on when you expect to realize the benefit from 80-20? And like what percentage of revenue do you expect to like discontinue due to unprofitable mature products?

我是詹姆斯，正在上莎莉服。我想回到80-20。所以我知道它仍處於早期階段，但您對這裡的大部分收入流進行了分析。那麼，當您希望實現 80-20 的好處時，您能提供更多的資訊嗎？由於成熟產品無法獲利，您預計會停止生產多少比例的收入？

Yes. As Bob said, I mean, if you look across the portfolio, what mathematically a normalized environment would be in what we call Quad 4 would be roughly 4% of the company. It's very improbable and unlikely that you could get out of all of that revenue in any 12-month period of time. You have contracts, you have obligations. You have certain requirements of how you serve distributors and where those dealers can buy. So this would be in a best case scenario from an exiting standpoint, probably half of that would be the opportunity.

是的。正如鮑伯所說，我的意思是，如果你縱觀整個投資組合，從數學上講，我們所說的 Quad 4 中的標準化環境大約占公司的 4%。您不太可能在任何 12 個月的時間內收回所有收入。你有合同，你有義務。您對如何為經銷商提供服務以及這些經銷商可以在哪裡購買有一定的要求。因此，從現有的角度來看，這將是最好的情況，其中可能有一半是機會。

And then mostly over a 12, 18 months period, you'd expect to recover most of that lost volume that would be transferred into the A customer streams. So overall, 80-20 should not be a revenue reduction. What it should allow you to do is prioritize your resources and efforts, as Bob said, to taking care of your best customers around your top products and really allow you to free up resources to drive innovation and drive higher long-term organic growth.

然後，在 12 到 18 個月的時間裡，您預計將恢復大部分損失的銷售量，並將其轉移到 A 客戶流中。所以整體來說，80-20不應該是收入減少。正如鮑伯所說，它應該讓您優先考慮您的資源和努力，以圍繞您的頂級產品照顧您的最佳客戶，並真​​正讓您釋放資源來推動創新並推動更高的長期有機成長。

So I think where we're really got to get paid, right? So the way we expect to get paid is by reducing that complexity in Quad 4 and ultimately then being able to reinvest in the future growth of the company. So I think in a 12-month period, the amount of revenue lost is nominal, but it is a transfer and you should see it in the margin and the transformation pipe from the efforts that we're driving through 80-20.

所以我認為我們真正需要在哪裡獲得報酬，對吧？因此，我們預期獲得報酬的方式是降低 Quad 4 的複雜性，最終能夠對公司未來的成長進行再投資。因此，我認為在 12 個月期間，收入損失金額是名義上的，但它是一種轉移，你應該在我們透過 80-20 努力推動的利潤和轉型管道中看到它。

Got it. And a follow-up on the pool business here. So can you discuss more on the like [pipend] you saw from the prebuy and when you kind of expect to ship those orders?

知道了。這裡是泳池業務的後續行動。那麼，您能否多討論一下您從預購中看到的[pipend]以及您預計何時發貨這些訂單？

Yes. We take the -- we put in our price increases generally as a reminder, first of all, the purpose of early buy is to balance our factories and not whipsaw our labor teams and have to hire a bunch of people and then let them go. So we work with the channel to make sure that we could have minimal requirements in Q4 and Q1 that allow us to keep our talented workforce.

是的。我們把價格上漲當作一個提醒，首先，早期購買的目的是平衡我們的工廠，而不是鞭打我們的勞動力團隊，不得不僱用一群人，然後讓他們離開。因此，我們與管道合作，確保我們可以在第四季度和第一季達到最低要求，從而使我們能夠留住才華橫溢的員工隊伍。

So with that in mind, we put in prices in Q3. We announced what those price increases will be on the new product. And then our channel places early buy orders at the old prices and then they get terms that allow them to pay us later for that business. Think about it in a normal setting as a rough quarters worth of revenue that we generally ship in Q4 and Q1. And then through those quarters, we still take standard orders for the states that are still open and the product that's still needed, and that's what level loads the Q4 and Q1 revenue streams.

因此，考慮到這一點，我們在第三季制定了價格。我們宣布了新產品的價格上漲幅度。然後我們的管道以舊價格提前下達購買訂單，然後他們獲得條款，允許他們稍後向我們支付該業務的費用。在正常情況下，將其視為我們通常在第四季度和第一季交付的大致季度收入。然後在這些季度中，我們仍然為仍然開放的州和仍然需要的產品接受標準訂單，這就是第四季度和第一季收入流的負載水平。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc 資本市場公司

Just maybe go back to the 80-20. One, you mentioned this 15% to 25% cost on the 4% of sales. I'm just wondering as you kind of go through that assessment, maybe cut half of those sales, what do you do with that 15% to 25% of cost? And is there a cost savings number over and above the 260 to think about with 80-20?

也許只是回到80-20。第一，您提到了 4% 銷售額的 15% 到 25% 成本。我只是想知道，當你進行評估時，也許會削減一半的銷售額，你會如何處理這 15% 到 25% 的成本？80-20 是否有超過 260 的成本節省數字？

So first of all, I don't think it's all addressable because you have like overhead depreciation, factory cost insurance that obviously is more fixed. But think of -- I think there's at least a 10% cost opportunity in Quad 4 related to the efforts, even compliance and sustainability efforts in addition to shipping, packaging all kinds of different work streams that aren't as efficient for the B products going to be customers that we're expecting to reduce. And so what we expect to do with the cost is to get rid of them. And that is the goal, Jeff, and that will show up in the transformation savings.

首先，我認為這並不是所有問題都可以解決的，因為管理費用折舊、工廠成本保險等顯然是更固定的。但想一想，我認為Quad 4 中至少有10% 的成本機會與工作相關，甚至是合規性和可持續性工作，此外還有運輸、包裝各種不同的工作流，這些工作流對於B產品來說效率不高將是我們預計會減少的客戶。因此，我們期望用成本做的就是擺脫它們。傑夫，這就是目標，這將體現在轉型節省。

And as Bob has mentioned, we did not have 80-20 expectations in the original transformation guides, right? And so at some point in time, as we know what these are valued at, we'll have to update our long-term productivity guidance and targets to reflect what we think the 80-20 benefits would be. As a reminder, we're doing things in waves just like we did in transformation. So we've addressed about 50% of the revenue from an action orientation this year. We expect that to read out next year. And then we finally train everybody in 80-20 and we'd probably expect that to be the second half of next year.

正如 Bob 所提到的，我們在最初的轉型指南中沒有 80-20 的期望，對嗎？因此，在某個時間點，當我們知道這些的價值時，我們將不得不更新我們的長期生產力指導和目標，以反映我們認為的 80-20 效益。提醒一下，我們正在波浪式地做事情，就像我們在轉型中所做的那樣。因此，今年我們已經解決了約 50% 的收入來自行動導向的問題。我們預計將於明年宣讀。然後我們最終對每個人進行 80-20 的訓練，我們可能會預計在明年下半年進行。

Okay. And then just a couple of clicks on pool one back to the early buy. Just how should we think about the balance of early buy timing between 4Q and first half '25, I know you were pretty balanced last year. And then just any green shoots on new or remodel as we start to see at least some rate cuts, I know that the mortgage rates have been slower to move, but just any green shoots. Thanks.

好的。然後只需在池一上點擊幾下即可返回早期購買。只是我們應該如何考慮第四季和 25 年上半年之間早期購買時機的平衡，我知道去年你們相當平衡。然後，當我們開始看到至少一些降息時，新建或改造的任何綠芽，我知道抵押貸款利率的變化速度較慢，但只是任何綠芽。謝謝。

Yes, Jeff. I mean, first of all, we -- I would define this early buy is completely normal. I think we're back to a more normalized view of it. And so I think growth next year will be more reliant on what happens with new pool builds and also what happens with remodeling and aftermarket. We don't know those predictions and forecasts yet.

是的，傑夫。我的意思是，首先，我認為這種早期購買是完全正常的。我認為我們又回到了對此更加正常化的看法。因此，我認為明年的成長將更加依賴新泳池的建設以及改造和售後市場的情況。我們還不知道這些預測和預測。

We're -- we run monthly dealer, voice of customer, and we do dealer and channel checks to make sure that we understand what the thinking is so that we could be prepared from supply chain to address that. And we'll be in a position to share that when we do the guide for next year on the Q4 earnings announcement. It's too premature to call that yet.

我們每月都會對經銷商、客戶的聲音進行調查，並對經銷商和通路進行檢查，以確保我們了解他們的想法，以便我們能夠從供應鏈中做好準備來解決這個問題。當我們為明年第四季度收益公告製定指南時，我們將能夠分享這一點。現在斷言還為時過早。

Andrew Krill, Deutsche Bank.

安德魯·克里爾，德意志銀行。

Let me get some help on the implied margins for 4Q this year. I'm getting around 23%, down about 100 bps sequentially. Just can you walk us through, I guess, how the kind of the moving pieces on why you're expecting margins to be down sequentially? I think normally, they're a bit more flattish quarter-over-quarter?

讓我獲得有關今年第四季隱含利潤的一些幫助。我的收益率約為 23%，比上一季下降了約 100 個基點。我想，您能否向我們介紹一下，您預期利潤率將持續下降的原因是怎樣的？我認為通常情況下，季度環比比較平淡？

Well, first of all, you're directionally close. So I mean, I think that would be an appropriate view. We tend to see a drop from Q3 to Q4 historically and traditionally, Q2 and Q3 are our peak quarters, that's when we're fully utilizing our factories and our teams and applying the revenue off the full cost base. So typically, we take a little drop down from Q4 or Q3 to Q4 in revenue, and that's generally why the margins become a little softer.

嗯，首先，你們的方向很接近。所以我的意思是，我認為這是一個合適的觀點。從歷史和傳統來看，我們傾向於看到從第三季度到第四季度的下降，第二季和第三季是我們的高峰季度，那時我們充分利用我們的工廠和團隊，並將收入從全部成本基礎中扣除。因此，通常情況下，我們的收入會從第四季或第三季到第四季略有下降，這通常是利潤率變得有些疲軟的原因。

A couple of that is the holidays and also the way that the schedules work, by the way we work with the dealer and the distribution channel that tends to ease off on its purchases towards the end of the year due to the holiday season and a lot of their customers don't want people servicing their houses during those holiday periods.

其中一個是假期，還有時間表的工作方式，我們與經銷商和分銷管道的合作方式，由於假期等原因，他們往往會在年底減少採購。提供服務。

And from a year-on-year perspective, we do expect the ROS to be up significantly in the fourth quarter, similar to how it was in the third quarter. Good news in Q4 is we're going to see better balance across all three segments, flow, water solutions, and pool all contributing to that ROS expansion story.

從同比角度來看，我們確實預計第四季的 ROS 將大幅上升，與第三季類似。第四季的好消息是，我們將看到所有三個部分（流量、水解決方案和池）之間更好的平衡，所有這些都為 ROS 擴展故事做出了貢獻。

Great. Very helpful. And then going back to the transformation savings and the final $30 million or so you're expecting for 4Q, any help by segment, which could benefit more or less? Or should we think about them being pretty evenly spread among the [through]?

偉大的。非常有幫助。然後回到轉型節省和您預計第四季度最終 3000 萬美元左右的資金，按細分市場提供的任何幫助，或多或少會受益？或者我們應該考慮它們在[透過]？

Yes. From our perspective, because the ROS increase for all three segments, you can expect transformation really benefiting all three of those segments in the fourth quarter.

是的。從我們的角度來看，由於所有三個細分市場的 ROS 均有所增加，因此您可以預期轉型將在第四季度真正使所有這三個細分市場受益。

Nathan Jones, Stifel.

內森瓊斯，斯蒂菲爾。

I guess I'm going to ask a bit more of a philosophical question about interest rate cuts. You've got a few businesses that you called out has negatively impacted residential flow, new pool construction, that kind of stuff. Can you talk about typically what kind of lag you say interest rate cuts before it begins to start impacting those businesses?

我想我會問更多關於降息的哲學問題。您指出一些企業對住宅流量、新泳池建設等產生了負面影響。您能談談您所說的降息在開始影響這些企業之前通常需要什麼樣的延遲嗎？

Yes. I think it's six to nine months to see meaningful impact, Nathan. Obviously, just a feeling that they're going to continue to head down would start the encouragement of people being able to think that they could go out, for instance, get a variable rate mortgage maybe refinance later. But we're not yet seeing the credit markets reflect the lower rates.

是的。內森，我認為需要六到九個月的時間才能看到有意義的影響。顯然，只要有一種他們將繼續低頭的感覺，就會開始鼓勵人們認為他們可以出去，例如，獲得可變利率抵押貸款，也許稍後再融資。但我們還沒有看到信貸市場反映出較低的利率。

And you probably saw that even mortgage rates ticked up and borrowing rates did not necessarily go down. So I think while we're encouraged by a single larger movement, we're still going to need a few more before we've got a bunch of consumers and customers that are confident that their borrowing rates are going to be lower in the future.

您可能會發現，即使抵押貸款利率上升，借款利率也不一定會下降。因此，我認為，雖然我們受到一次更大的運動的鼓舞，但在我們讓一群消費者和客戶相信他們的借貸利率在未來會更低之前，我們仍然需要更多的運動。

And maybe it starts to impact second half of next year and into the first half of the year after?

也許它會開始影響明年下半年和後年上半年？

Probably a good assumption. Up as we finish Q4 and have better understanding, but that would be a reasonable way to look at it.

也許是一個很好的假設。當我們完成第四季度並對它有了更好的理解時，但這將是一個合理的看待它的方式。

There's a couple of the pillars on your transformational initiatives that we haven't talked too much today around operational excellence, organizational effectiveness. Can you just give us an update on the initiatives there and the expected impacts you're looking for?

關於您的轉型計劃，我們今天還沒有過多討論卓越營運和組織有效性的幾個支柱。您能否向我們介紹一下那裡的舉措的最新情況以及您正在尋找的預期影響？

Yes, there are two big work streams. I mean the organizational excellence is one that we're really working as more of an offset, right? We want to drive some of the nonproductive activities out of the organization and reinvest in innovation and sales and marketing and certainly supporting our customers more effectively. So we haven't talked a lot about being a significant positive to the P&L, but it's important because it'll free up resources to invest.

是的，有兩個大的工作流程。我的意思是，組織的卓越性是我們真正努力的一種補償，對嗎？我們希望將一些非生產性活動趕出組織，並重新投資於創新、銷售和行銷，當然更有效地支持我們的客戶。因此，我們沒有過多談論對損益表的顯著正面影響，但這很重要，因為它將釋放資源進行投資。

On the operational footprint, we've made great progress, but growth will help a lot, and we need to get leverage across the factory footprint. And then while we've overdriven a lot of the activities, we've seen some headwinds, as I'm sure most companies have, from insurance, utilities, property taxes, those types of things that actually negatively impact the operational piece of the P&L. So while we probably haven't highlighted enough, we're making great progress there. And we're just trying to get ahead of some of those inflationary elements that have hit the manufacturing side harder than they probably hit across the overall P&L.

在營運足跡上，我們取得了巨大進步，但成長將有很大幫助，我們需要在整個工廠足跡中發揮槓桿作用。雖然我們已經超額開展了很多活動，但我們也看到了一些不利因素，我相信大多數公司都面臨著來自保險、公用事業、財產稅等實際上對營運部分產生負面影響的因素。因此，雖然我們可能還沒有足夠強調，但我們正在這方面取得巨大進展。我們只是試圖提前應對一些通膨因素，這些因素對製造業的打擊可能比對整體損益表的打擊更大。

Mike Halloran, Baird.

麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

Two quick ones here. One, on the commercial side on the water solutions, just any variance between the Everpure and ICE businesses? And then maybe just talk a little bit to how cross-selling is going on that side of things.

這裡有兩個快速的。第一，在水解決方案的商業方面，Everpure 和 ICE 業務之間有差異嗎？然後也許只是談談交叉銷售在這方面的進展。

Yes. Again, from our perspective, pleased with how commercial filtration is performing this year for Manitowoc Ice, just as a reminder, this year, we had guided down roughly mid-single digits after their record 445 year last year. We do expect them to return to growth next year. Overall, those businesses from a ROS perspective continue to perform very well. So pleased with commercial filtration and Manitowoc Ice.

是的。同樣，從我們的角度來看，我們對 Manitowoc Ice 今年的商業過濾表現感到滿意，只是提醒一下，今年我們的指引在去年創紀錄的 445 年之後下降了大約中個位數。我們確實預計它們明年將恢復成長。總體而言，從 ROS 的角度來看，這些業務仍然表現良好。對商業過濾和馬尼托瓦克冰非常滿意。

Overall for the portfolio, under a little bit of pressure in the third quarter. Water solutions in total, that has to do with compare we faced last year but also with some of the selling efforts within commercial filtration, where we lead with the system and then benefit from the recurring revenue down the road.

總體而言，投資組合在第三季面臨一些壓力。總體而言，水解決方案與我們去年面臨的比較有關，也與商業過濾領域的一些銷售努力有關，我們在系統中處於領先地位，然後從未來的經常性收入中受益。

So overall, you make an investment today in the systems and then drive that recurring revenue stream. So a few things at play there, but generally pleased with the performance in commercial water for the quarter and for the year.

因此，總的來說，您今天對系統進行了投資，然後推動了經常性收入流。因此，有一些因素在起作用，但總體上對本季和全年商業用水的表現感到滿意。

And then to your question on cross synergies, I couldn't be more pleased. And that's what you're seeing a lot of the filtration revenue this year is the synergies we talked about in the Manitowoc Ice side. It was Manitowoc pulling Everpure it wasn't really going to come the other way around. So when we look at that deal model, we're ahead of our expectations and expect 2025 to be on or above those expectations. So really feel good about the performance of this business and the synergies that we committed to.

對於你關於交叉綜效的問題，我感到非常高興。這就是你今年看到的大量過濾收入是我們在馬尼托瓦克製冰方面談到的協同效應。是馬尼托瓦克拉動了 Everpure，但事實並非如此。因此，當我們審視該交易模式時，我們超出了我們的預期，並預計 2025 年將達到或高於這些預期。因此，我們對這項業務的表現以及我們致力於實現的協同效應感到非常滿意。

And then following up on a question earlier on the capital usage side of things. I certainly understand the M&A piece. In light of that, what's the equation from your perspective on how to approach buybacks from here? Are you doing something consistent as it sits here today. What would it take in your mind to lean in a little bit more and maybe walk through that thought process?

然後跟進之前關於資本使用的問題。我當然理解併購部分。有鑑於此，從您的角度來看，如何從這裡進行回購？你是否正在做一些與今天一樣一致的事情？你會怎麼做才能更深入地思考並完成這個思考過程？

Yes. I think Bob and I are most pleased that we're starting to really generate cash at the levels that we expected to. As a reminder, we still have a lot of transformation headwinds and restructuring that we still see as an opportunity in '25 and '26 as we ramp that down. And that's going to give us more confidence in our ability to continue to pay off the debt and have a lot more flexibility as far as what we want to accomplish. $1 billion EBITDA, we always want to have a little acquisition powder for the strategic acquisitions.

是的。我認為鮑伯和我最高興的是我們開始真正按照我們預期的水平產生現金。提醒一下，我們仍然面臨許多轉型阻力和重組，我們仍然將其視為 25 和 26 年的機遇，因為我們正在逐步減少這些阻力。這將使我們對繼續償還債務的能力更有信心，並在實現我們想要實現的目標方面擁有更大的靈活性。 10億美元的EBITDA，我們總想為策略收購有一點收購粉。

We are a collection of acquisitions, some of those completely strategic to what we want to be as a company and some that weren't. And so I think what we want to do is when we look at the acquisitions in the pipeline, we want to make sure that they're synergistic to things that we do today and we want to make sure that we're giving our customers more product that they want to buy from us. So being really disciplined in what we're looking at. And we want to make sure it has the type of returns that our shareholders expect. So in the meantime, we're continuing to buy back shares and pay down the debt. That's where the focus has been.

我們是一系列收購的集合體，其中一些收購對於我們想要成為一家公司的目標來說完全是策略性的，而有些則不是。因此，我認為我們想要做的是，當我們考慮正在進行的收購時，我們希望確保它們與我們今天所做的事情具有協同作用，並且我們希望確保我們為客戶提供更多他們想從我們這裡購買的產品。因此，我們要嚴格遵守我們所關注的內容。我們希望確保它具有股東期望的回報類型。因此，與此同時，我們將繼續回購股票並償還債務。這就是焦點所在。

Joe Giordano, TD Cowen.

喬·佐丹奴，TD·考恩。

Highlighted in the slide some of the PFAS products that you guys have developed. And I'm just curious, like what's been the early uptake there? Like who's buying? Has it been more like industrial customers, municipalities and maybe if you can scale the opportunity there?

幻燈片中重點介紹了你們開發的一些 PFAS 產品。我只是很好奇，那裡的早期吸收情況如何？比如誰在買？它是否更像是工業客戶、市政當局，也許你可以擴大那裡的機會？

Yes. So first of all, I mean, it's -- on a percentage basis, immensely huge growth, but we're still in the early stages of revenue there. So let's say, north of $1 million. But I think we're most encouraged that we have several sets of customers that are extremely interested.

是的。首先，我的意思是，從百分比來看，成長非常巨大，但我們仍處於收入的早期階段。比方說，超過 100 萬美元。但我認為最讓我們感到鼓舞的是，我們有幾組非常感興趣的客戶。

First of all, our distributors and dealers are excited and enthusiastic that they're working with a partner like Pentair who's put a product line out there that can solve their needs and it gives them something new to talk to their customers about. But most of the uptake has predominantly been in the commercial and hospitality areas where they really, really care about the quality of the water that they are servicing and giving to their customers. But we have seen a little bit of encouragement in people up paying in the residential markets as well.

首先，我們的經銷商和經銷商對與像 Pentair 這樣的合作夥伴合作感到興奮和熱情，Pentair 推出的產品線可以滿足他們的需求，並為他們提供了與客戶談論的新內容。但大部分的使用主要集中在商業和酒店領域，他們非常非常關心他們所服務和提供給客戶的水的品質。但我們也看到人們在住宅市場上支付的費用有所鼓勵。

So overall, enthused about the start, and we're hopeful that it's really just wakening people's mindset to water quality and starting to spur a conversation of paying a little bit more for a little bit -- well, a lot more value and feeling confident in the water their drinking.

總的來說，我們對這個開始感到興奮，我們希望它真的能喚醒人們對水質的認識，並開始激發人們為一點點多付一點錢的對話——嗯，更多的價值和信心在他們飲用的水中。

And then just last for me. You mentioned like the delays on the industrial side and CapEx projects. And you mentioned it could be several quarters like I guess when we talk to other industrial companies, no one's talking about cancellations, but everyone is talking about significant pushouts. And I guess like one does one become the other.

然後就對我來說最後一次。您提到了工業方面和資本支出項目的延誤。你提到這可能需要幾個季度，就像我猜的那樣，當我們與其他工業公司交談時，沒有人在談論取消，但每個人都在談論重大的推遲。我想就像一個人會變成另一個人一樣。

Yes. I think when it goes several more quarters, I think you should think about it leaving the funnel and not being in the funnel. I always look at front log, which is the types of things and projects that we're quoting. Usually, that's not a good indication because engineers always stay busy in the project front line side, backlog is meaningful.

是的。我認為當它再持續幾個季度時，我認為你應該考慮它離開漏斗而不是進入漏斗。我總是查看前面的日誌，這是我們引用的事物和項目的類型。通常，這不是一個好的跡象，因為工程師總是忙於專案第一線，而積壓是有意義的。

And what you'd expect is that you're starting to grow that backlog because people are still placing those projects and then they're timing them maybe. This isn't that meaningful for us. It's just more of a relative comment that there's a piece of our business that could have been double-digit growth that's now coming back to flattish growth.

你所期望的是，你開始增加積壓的工作，因為人們仍在放置這些項目，然後他們可能會安排它們的時間。這對我們來說意義不大。這只是一個相對的評論，我們的一項業務本來可以實現兩位數的成長，但現在又回到了持平成長。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

布雷特·林澤，瑞穗。

This is Peter Costa, on for Brett Linzey. So just one more on the 80-20 after you guys went through all the revenue streams and product lines. How are you thinking about the opportunity by segment?

我是彼得·科斯塔，替補布雷特·林澤。因此，在你們了解了所有的收入來源和產品線之後，我們再來談談 80-20 的情況。您如何看待細分市場的機會？

As Bob mentioned, we always have a favorite segment at the moment, but the opportunity is equal across all three segments. It is really a combination of longevity, global P&Ls, our desire to chase adjacencies over time to sign up customers who we thought would be bigger than they are today. Those opportunities are equal across all three segments. And we're working through the playbooks, and we're very confident that all three of our segments are going to get an equal participation in 80-20.

正如鮑勃所提到的，我們目前總是有一個最喜歡的細分市場，但所有三個細分市場的機會都是平等的。這實際上是長壽、全球損益以及我們隨著時間的推移追逐鄰近地區以簽署我們認為會比今天更大的客戶的願望的結合。這些機會在所有三個細分市場中都是平等的。我們正在製定劇本，我們非常有信心我們的所有三個細分市場都將平等參與 80-20。

Some will be more margin focused, and I think that will slide to flow into water solutions, especially on the residential end and others will be a growth capability, which would be pool in probably areas like Manitowoc and Everpure but all of the businesses have an equal opportunity.

有些將更加重視利潤，我認為這將滑向水務解決方案，特別是在住宅端，而另一些則將是一種增長能力，這可能會集中在馬尼托瓦克和埃弗普爾等地區，但所有企業都有一個機會均等。

Scott Graham, Seaport Research.

斯科特·格雷厄姆，海港研究中心。

So implied from your third quarter guidance, there was a fourth quarter implication that it looks like your new fourth quarter guidance is a little bit lower than on the sales side. And I was wondering if that's because of both the prebuy and the industrial project pushouts? So again, the implied slower sales, are those the reasons for the fourth quarter?

從第三季的指導中可以看出，第四季的指導似乎比銷售的指導低一些。我想知道這是否是因為預購和工業項目推出所致？那麼，隱含的銷售放緩是第四季的原因嗎？

Our guide remains the same. I will acknowledge that consensus might have been slightly higher, but our guide that we put out, and this forecast is equal to what we had in the last forecast, Scott. I think we're managing through the growth and transformation opportunities we have. And I think the way that the year is playing out is consistent with the way we saw it last quarter.

我們的指南保持不變。我承認，共識可能會稍高一些，但我們發布的指南以及這個預測與我們上次的預測相同，斯科特。我認為我們正在利用我們所擁有的成長和轉型機會。我認為今年的情況與我們上個季度看到的情況是一致的。

Okay. I'll check that math with Shelly. I follow it up no problem. For pool, so the full year guide of sort of mid-single would imply a slightly down fourth quarter. And what I'm wondering is if this year's prebuy is largely equal to last year's prebuy in terms of the mechanics we took it in the level loading into the fourth quarter. Why would fourth quarter sales in pool be implied down?

好的。我會和雪莉核對一下數學。我跟進沒問題。對於撞球來說，全年中路的指導意味著第四季度略有下降。我想知道的是，就我們在第四季度加載的關卡中採用的機製而言，今年的預購是否與去年的預購基本相同。為什麼第四季的總銷售額會下降？

Yes. Within our guide for the fourth quarter, we actually have pools slightly up and flow and water solutions slightly down to get our overall guidance for the quarter. So pool is up in the fourth quarter.

是的。在我們第四季度的指南中，實際上，我們的水池略有上升，流量和水解決方案略有下降，以獲得本季度的整體指南。所以第四季的池子是上升的。

Okay. I guess, thank you. The last question there is, so both water solutions and flow had productivity, which if you x out some transformation benefit dollar number would imply that the productivity was actually maybe negative in those areas. Was that simply all from the negative volumes?

好的。我想，謝謝。最後一個問題是，水解決方案和水流都具有生產力，如果您剔除一些轉型效益美元數字，則表示這些領域的生產力實際上可能為負。難道這一切都是負數造成的嗎？

No. I mean we were more challenged in the productivity side of water solutions this quarter. That business is extremely global. And we've been working really hard to get some of the global cost out, but it generally takes longer to attack the cost bases outside the United States. So we still expect those to be opportunities in the future.

不。我的意思是，本季我們在水解決方案的生產力方面面臨更多挑戰。該業務非常全球化。我們一直在努力消除一些全球成本，但通常需要更長的時間來攻擊美國以外的成本基礎。因此，我們仍然期望這些都是未來的機會。

And as Bob said, we had a year-over-year compare in water solutions last year, which was record and those margins were challenged. I think you'll see margin improvement return in Q4 there, and we're confident about what it can do in 2025.

正如鮑伯所說，我們去年對水解決方案進行了同比比較，這是創紀錄的，這些利潤受到了挑戰。我認為您會在第四季度看到利潤率的改善，我們對 2025 年的表現充滿信心。

And flow really did have a nice Q3 from a ROS expansion story. The price that they were able to drive along with transformation will more than offset the inflation.

Flow 確實在 ROS 擴展故事的第三季表現出色。他們能夠隨著轉型而推動的價格將足以抵消通貨膨脹。

Damian Karas, UBS.

達米安卡拉斯，瑞銀。

Covered a lot of ground. Just a quick question related to free cash flow. It's been pretty strong year-to-date. I'm just wondering for the fourth quarter, is there anything beyond the typical seasonal factors that you'd kind of expect to happen. It just seems like you're well above the 100% conversion guide for the year.

覆蓋了很多地方。這是一個與自由現金流相關的簡單問題。今年迄今為止，它的表現相當強勁。我只是想知道第四季度除了典型的季節性因素之外，還有什麼是你期望發生的嗎？看起來您的轉換率遠高於今年的 100% 轉換率指南。

We expect a pretty typical Q4 and to the point you made, seasonality does play in, in Q4 and Q1 with Q2 being our largest free cash flow quarter.

我們預計第四季度將是一個非常典型的季度，就您所言，季節性確實會在第四季度和第一季度發揮作用，而第二季度是我們最大的自由現金流季度。

Thank you for joining us. In closing, I wanted to reiterate our key themes. First, solid execution across our balanced water portfolio drove significant margin expansion for the tenth consecutive quarter. Second, we are increasing our 2024 adjusted EPS guidance which reflects continued confidence in our strategy and our ability to mitigate risk where we can and maintain agility in a dynamic environment.

感謝您加入我們。最後，我想重申我們的關鍵主題。首先，我們平衡水產品組合的穩健執行推動利潤率連續第十個季度大幅成長。其次，我們正在提高 2024 年調整後每股盈餘指引，這反映了我們對我們的策略以及我們在動態環境中盡可能降低風險並保持敏捷性的能力的持續信心。

Third, we expect our transformation initiatives in our 80-20 to continue to drive strong margin expansion and adjusted EPS growth. And finally, we believe our focused water strategy and solid execution are building a foundation to continue to deliver value creation beyond the 2024 fiscal year. Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.

第三，我們預期 80-20 世紀的轉型措施將繼續推動利潤率的強勁擴張和調整後每股盈餘的成長。最後，我們相信，我們專注的水策略和紮實的執行正在為 2024 財年後繼續創造價值奠定基礎。謝謝大家，祝您有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。