濱特爾 (PNR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Pentair First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加濱特爾 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁雪莉·哈伯德 (Shelly Hubbard)。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Pentair's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，歡迎參加濱特爾 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。與我通話的有我們的總裁兼執行長 John Stauch；和我們的財務長鮑勃·菲什曼 (Bob Fishman)。

On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release. On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將提供今天上午新聞稿中概述的第一季業績的詳細資訊。在濱特爾投資者關係網站上，您可以找到我們的收益發布和幻燈片，其目的是補充我們在今天電話會議期間準備好的言論，並提供我們將參考的GAAP 和非GAAP 財務指標之間差異的協調表。

The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.

所提供的非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代或優於根據公認會計原則編制的財務績效指標。它們作為額外的澄清項目包括在內，以幫助投資者進一步了解公司的業績以及這些項目和事件對財務表現的影響。

Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您，在今天的演示中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，即對未來事件的預測、預測或其他陳述。請聽眾注意，這些陳述存在一定的風險和不確定性，其中許多風險和不確定性難以預測，並且通常超出濱特爾的控制範圍。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。我們建議聽眾仔細查看我們最新的表格 10-K 和表格 10-Q 中的風險因素。

Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions. Please note that we will limit your questions to 2 after which we ask you to reenter the queue in order to allow everyone an opportunity to ask questions. Note that we have now published our Pentair Investor Overview on our IR website which includes the overview slides we previously included in our quarterly earnings presentation. Please visit our Pentair Investor Relations website and click on Events and Presentations to find this new overview.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開始提問。請注意，我們會將您的問題限制為 2 個，之後我們會要求您重新進入佇列，以便每個人都有機會提問。請注意，我們現在已在 IR 網站上發布了 Pentair 投資者概述，其中包括我們先前在季度收益演示中包含的概述幻燈片。請造訪我們的濱特爾投資者關係網站，然後點擊「活動和演示」以尋找此新概述。

I will now turn the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Shelly, and good morning, everyone. First, I want to thank all of you who attended our 2024 Investor Day in New York last month. We appreciate your time and your insightful questions, as we go deeper into the business and provided our path to 24% ROS by full year 2026 with the potential for upside.

謝謝你，雪莉，大家早安。首先，我要感謝上個月參加在紐約舉行的 2024 年投資者日活動的所有人。感謝您抽出寶貴的時間並提出富有洞察力的問題，因為我們會更深入地了解業務，並提供了到 2026 年全年 ROS 達到 24% 的路徑，並具有上升潛力。

Now let's begin with our strong Q1 results on Slide 4. The eighth consecutive quarter, we continued to drive margin expansion. In Q1, ROS expanded 90 basis points despite sales being down slightly against peak channel inventory challenges in our Residential segments. We exceeded our first quarter guidance as our Pentair teams drove solid execution across all 3 segments. In the first quarter, segment income and adjusted EPS also increased year-over-year. Our transformation initiatives remained on track to deliver margin expansion as we highlighted at our recent Investor Day.

現在讓我們從投影片 4 上強勁的第一季業績開始。在第一季度，儘管住宅領域的銷售量因通路庫存高峰挑戰而略有下降，但 ROS 仍成長了 90 個基點。我們超越了第一季的指導，因為我們的濱特爾團隊在所有 3 個細分市場中都取得了紮實的執行力。第一季度，分部營收和調整後每股盈餘也較去年同期成長。正如我們在最近的投資者日所強調的那樣，我們的轉型計劃仍在實現利潤率擴張的軌道上。

Approximately 50% of our total revenue has adopted and implemented value-based pricing as part of our strategic pricing initiatives. We are well into wave 2 of our sourcing initiatives, which we expect to begin to drive benefits in the second half of this year and we have continued to drive operational footprint optimization and plan to continue this going forward.

我們總收入的約 50% 已採用並實施基於價值的定價，作為我們策略定價計劃的一部分。我們正在積極開展第二波採購計劃，預計該計劃將在今年下半年開始帶來效益，我們將繼續推動營運足跡優化，並計劃繼續推進這一舉措。

And we have recently introduced 80/20 training to 50% of Pentair's revenue streams and have identified some quick wins and larger term opportunities.

最近，我們針對 Pentair 50% 的收入來源引入了 80/20 培訓，並確定了一些快速獲勝和長期機會。

Lastly, we are encouraged by signs that we are returning to a more normal operating environment for the first time in nearly 4 years. Both our lead times and our backlog have been normalizing and our order rate trend has been in line with our expectations. As we expect to return to a more normal operating environment, we have seen a mix of trends across our Residential, Commercial and Industrial verticals within our 3 segments.

最後，有跡象顯示我們近四年來首次恢復更正常的營運環境，這令我們感到鼓舞。我們的交貨時間和積壓訂單都已正常化，我們的訂單率趨勢也符合我們的預期。當我們期望恢復到更正常的營運環境時，我們在住宅、商業和工業垂直領域的三個細分市場中看到了多種趨勢。

For example, in Flow, Commercial and Industrial verticals performed well in Q1, while higher interest rates continue to impact Residential and Agricultural verticals. Within Water Solutions, our commercial businesses servicing the Foodservice and Hospitality verticals performed as expected. We believe Residential will improve as year-over-year challenges moderate.

例如，在流量方面，商業和工業垂直行業在第一季表現良好，而較高的利率繼續影響住宅和農業垂直行業。在 Water Solutions 內部，我們為餐飲服務和飯店垂直行業提供服務的商業業務表現符合預期。我們相信，隨著逐年挑戰的緩和，住宅市場將會有所改善。

Lastly, in Pool, a majority of our revenue is in the Sunbelt states with a focus on high-rent in-ground. In Q1, high-rent pools and the Sunbelt states remain resilient with the exception of California, where weather had a slight impact. From our recent dealer survey, Remodeled Pool projects appear to be increasing and servicers we surveyed, we're optimistic about the aftermarket.

最後，在普爾，我們的大部分收入來自陽光地帶各州，重點是高租金的土地。第一季度，高租金池和陽光地帶各州仍保持彈性，但加州除外，天氣對該州造成了輕微影響。從我們最近的經銷商調查來看，改造泳池專案似乎正在增加，而且我們調查的服務商，我們對售後市場持樂觀態度。

Let's turn to Slide 6. Last week, we published our 2023 Corporate Responsibility Report with an update on our progress. At our Investor Day last month, our leader of ESG and sustainability, Karla Robertson, provided a preview of our 2023 results on this slide. I'm very proud of the work Karla and our sustainability team are doing and the progress our teams throughout the company are making against our strategic targets.

讓我們轉向投影片 6。在上個月的投資者日上，我們的 ESG 和永續發展負責人 Karla Robertson 在這張投影片上預覽了我們 2023 年的表現。我對卡拉和我們的永續發展團隊所做的工作以及整個公司的團隊在實現我們的策略目標方面所取得的進展感到非常自豪。

Before I turn it over to Bob, let's turn to Slide 7. We delivered another quarter of quality earnings with better-than-expected results. Our Investor Day key themes remain on track. Our 80/20 training and workshops are underway with what we believe are promising early readouts.

在我把它交給鮑伯之前，讓我們轉向投影片 7。我們的投資者日關鍵主題仍然在正軌上。我們的 80/20 培訓和研討會正在進行中，我們相信早期的結果很有希望。

And we are reiterating our full year 2024 outlook while introducing strong Q2 guidance. With an adjusted EPS midpoint up 13% as compared to the same period last year. All in, we continue to build a strong foundation to drive long-term growth and profitability across our diverse water portfolio.

我們重申 2024 年全年展望，同時引進強而有力的第二季指引。調整後每股盈餘中點較去年同期成長13%。總而言之，我們將繼續打造堅實的基礎，推動多元化水務產品組合的長期成長和獲利能力。

I will now pass the call over to Bob, who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?

我現在將把電話轉給鮑勃，他將更詳細地討論我們的業績和財務表現。鮑伯？

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Slide 8. With sales over $1 billion, we delivered another strong quarter of quality earnings. Return on sales or ROS expanded 90 basis points despite sales being down 1% versus last year's record Q1. Core sales were down 1% year-over-year, driven primarily by growth in Water Solutions, which was more than offset by slight declines in Flow and Pool. Sales across all 3 segments increased sequentially from Q4.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。讓我們從幻燈片 8 開始。儘管銷售額比去年創紀錄的第一季下降了 1%，但銷售回報率或 ROS 仍成長了 90 個基點。核心銷售額年減 1%，主要由 Water Solutions 業務的成長推動，但 Flow 和 Pool 業務的小幅下降抵消了這一成長。所有 3 個細分市場的銷售額均較第四季連續成長。

Pool sales in Q1 exceeded Q4 2023 sales, which in turn exceeded Q3 2023 sales as we had guided to last October.

第一季的聯營銷售額超過了 2023 年第四季的銷售額，而後者又超過了我們去年 10 月預測的 2023 年第三季的銷售額。

First quarter segment income increased 3% to $217 million and return on sales expanded 90 basis points year-over-year to 21.4%. These results were driven by favorable mix, price more than offsetting inflation as well as transformation. ROS improved sequentially from Q4 and approached the Q2 2023 record of 21.6%. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.94, which exceeded our guidance and was up 3% year-over-year. As John previously mentioned, we are excited to be entering what we believe to be a more normal operating environment for the first time in nearly 4 years.

第一季部門營收成長 3%，達到 2.17 億美元，銷售回報率年增 90 個基點，達到 21.4%。這些結果是由有利的組合、價格足以抵消通貨膨脹以及轉型所推動的。 ROS 較第四季連續改善，接近 2023 年第二季 21.6% 的記錄。我們的調整後每股收益為 0.94 美元，超出了我們的指導，年增 3%。正如約翰之前提到的，我們很高興能夠在近 4 年來首次進入我們認為更正常的營運環境。

Please turn to Slide 9. Flow sales declined 2% year-over-year, commercial sales growth of 9% and industrial sales growth of 2%, were more than offset by a decline in residential sales of 12%. Our residential sales are more closely tied to the overall housing and agriculture markets. Segment income grew 19% and return on sales expanded 350 basis points to 20.1%, marking the first time ROS has reached or exceeded 20%. The strong margin expansion was a result of price and mix exceeding inflation and continued progress on our transformation initiatives.

請參閱投影片 9。我們的住宅銷售與整體住房和農業市場的連結更加緊密。部門營收成長 19%，銷售回報率擴大 350 個基點至 20.1%，標誌著 ROS 首次達到或超過 20%。利潤率的強勁成長是價格和組合超過通膨以及我們轉型舉措持續取得進展的結果。

Please turn to Slide 10. In Q1, Water Solutions sales were up slightly to $273 million, driven by commercial sales up approximately 1% and residential sales down approximately 1%. Segment income grew 6% to $56 million and return on sales expanded 110 basis points to 20.4%, driven primarily by favorable mix and transformation continuing to drive operational efficiencies. This is the eighth consecutive quarter of ROS expansion. Margins have nearly doubled from 10.8% in Q1 2022 to 20.4% in Q1 2024.

請參閱投影片 10。部門營收成長 6%，達到 5,600 萬美元，銷售回報率成長 110 個基點，達到 20.4%，這主要是由於有利的組合和轉型繼續提高營運效率。這是 ROS 連續第八個季度擴張。利潤率幾乎翻了一番，從 2022 年第一季的 10.8% 增至 2024 年第一季的 20.4%。

Within our residential business in Water Solutions, we have continued to see improvement in our year-over-year sales rate for the last 5 quarters. Within our commercial business in Water Solutions, both filtration and Ice drove sales growth, which was offset by lower services revenue due to project life cycles.

在我們的水解決方案住宅業務中，過去 5 個季度的年比銷售率持續改善。在我們的水解決方案商業業務中，過濾和冰都推動了銷售成長，但由於專案生命週期導致的服務收入下降，抵消了銷售成長。

Please turn to Slide 11. In Q1, Pool sales declined 1% to $359 million. However, Q1 sales improved nearly 7% sequentially from Q4 2023 as expected. Segment income was $111 million, down 5% and return on sales decreased 110 basis points, due to lower volume, an increase in costs as we prepared for the peak pool season in Q2 and investment in transformation. We expect Pool margins to expand each quarter year-on-year for the remainder of 2024.

請參閱投影片 11。然而，正如預期的那樣，第一季銷售額較 2023 年第四季環比成長近 7%。部門營收為 1.11 億美元，下降 5%，銷售回報率下降 110 個基點，原因是銷量下降、為第二季度泳池旺季做準備而導致的成本增加以及轉型投資。我們預計 2024 年剩餘時間內每季的總利潤率將比去年同期擴大。

Please turn to Slide 12. At our Investor Day in March, we updated our 3-year margin targets to reflect margin expansion through full year 2026, extending our plan by a year, with contributions from all 4 of our key transformation initiatives; pricing, sourcing, operations and organization, we are targeting ROS to expand by 540 basis points to 24% as compared to full year 2022 and have the opportunity to do even better as we discussed during our Investor Day.

請參閱投影片12。轉型舉措的貢獻；在定價、採購、營運和組織方面，我們的目標是 ROS 比 2022 年全年增長 540 個基點，達到 24%，並且有機會做得更好，正如我們在投資者日討論的那樣。

In full year 2023, we achieved a ROS of 20.8% and expect to continue to drive margin expansion to approximately 22% by year-end.

2023 年全年，我們的 ROS 達到 20.8%，預計到年底將繼續推動利潤率擴大至約 22%。

Please turn to Slide 13. This runway provides context of when we expect each wave to deliver margin expansion in our reported results. Note that we expect our transformation benefit to compounds with each additional wave and the entire process to begin to repeat in 2027, creating a continuous cycle of ongoing savings.

請參閱投影片 13。請注意，我們預計我們的轉型效益將隨著每一次額外浪潮而增加，整個過程將在 2027 年開始重複，從而形成持續節省的連續循環。

Please turn to Slide 14. In Q1, we used $127 million in cash, which is consistent with the prior year quarter. Q1 is predominantly a cash use quarter and typically followed by strong cash generation in Q2, our seasonally highest quarter. Our net debt leverage ratio was 2.1x, down from 2.6x in Q1 a year ago. Our ROIC was 14%. We continue to target high teens return on invested capital. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and continue to focus on debt reduction amid the higher interest rate environment, along with share repurchases to offset dilution.

請參閱投影片 14。第一季主要是現金使用季度，通常在第二季度（我們季節性最高的季度）產生強勁的現金產生。我們的淨負債槓桿率為 2.1 倍，低於一年前第一季的 2.6 倍。我們的投資報酬率為 14%。我們繼續以十幾歲的投資資本回報率為目標。我們計劃在較高的利率環境下保持資本紀律，並繼續專注於減少債務，以及回購股票以抵消稀釋。

With a net debt leverage ratio within our target range, we have additional flexibility to strategically allocate additional capital to areas with the highest shareholder returns.

由於淨債務槓桿率在我們的目標範圍內，我們可以更靈活地策略性地將額外資本分配到股東回報率最高的領域。

Moving to Slide 15. For the full year, we are maintaining our adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.15 to $4.25, which is up roughly 12% at the midpoint. Also for the full year, we continue to expect sales to be up approximately 2% to 3%, with Flow sales to be up approximately low single digits, Water Solutions sales to be approximately flat and Pool sales to be approximately 7% for the full year. We also expect segment income to increase 8% to 11%.

轉向投影片 15。此外，我們繼續預期全年銷售額將成長約 2% 至 3%，其中 Flow 銷售額將成長約低個位數，Water Solutions 銷售額將大致持平，Pool 銷售額將成長約 7%。我們也預期分部收入將成長 8% 至 11%。

For the second quarter, we expect sales to be up approximately 1% to 2%, compared to last year's record Q2. We expect strong growth in Pool sales in Q2, somewhat offset by challenging compares in our Water Solutions segment. We expect second quarter segment income to increase 10% to 12% with significant ROS expansion. We are also introducing strong adjusted EPS guidance for the second quarter of approximately $1.15 to $1.17, up roughly 13% at the midpoint.

對於第二季度，我們預計銷售額將比去年創紀錄的第二季度增長約 1% 至 2%。我們預計第二季泳池銷售將強勁成長，但水解決方案領域的挑戰性比較將在一定程度上抵消這一成長。我們預計，隨著 ROS 的大幅擴張，第二季部門營收將成長 10% 至 12%。我們也推出了第二季強勁的調整後每股盈餘指引，約 1.15 美元至 1.17 美元，中間值上漲約 13%。

I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A. After which, John will have a few closing remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.

我現在想將電話轉給接線員進行問答。之後，約翰將發表一些結束語。接線員，請開通提問線。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Mike Halloran 和 Baird。

So 2 questions here. First one, just how are you thinking about the end markets as you work through the rest of the year? I mean the overall top line guidance is really unchanged. So I guess the question is, are you seeing anything different today than you were thinking a few months back? And how are you thinking about the sequentials from here across your end markets?

所以這裡有兩個問題。首先，在今年剩下的時間裡，您如何看待終端市場？我的意思是整體營收指引確實沒有改變。所以我想問題是，你今天看到的東西與幾個月前的想法有什麼不同嗎？您如何看待終端市場的連續性？

So far, Mike, I would say things are playing out exactly like we thought and hoped for with the exception of maybe within our Flow segment, the Residential side and the Ag-side being a little weaker as we progress through the end of the year. Other than that, everything is generally in line with our previous expectations.

到目前為止，麥克，我想說，事情的發展完全符合我們的想法和希望，除了我們的流動部門之外，隨著年底的進展，住宅方面和農業方面會有點弱。除此之外，一切基本上都符合我們先前的預期。

And then on the Flow margins, awfully impressive and certainly seems a little different than I would have expected seasonally. So maybe some thoughts on how you think those margins sequentially work from here, in particular, anything in the first quarter that's not repeatable from a mix perspective or anything else? And is this just an example of the right foundation to build ROS with all the work you guys are doing internally?

然後在流量利潤方面，非常令人印象深刻，而且似乎與我對季節性的預期有些不同。那麼，也許您對這些利潤如何從這裡開始依次發揮作用有一些想法，特別是第一季從混合角度或其他角度來看不可重複的任何事情？這只是透過你們內部所做的所有工作來建構 ROS 的正確基礎的一個例子嗎？

It really is. On the Flow side, we were extremely pleased with the ROS expansion in Q1. And again, we've said that they will be one of the main beneficiaries of the transformation program. So I expect the segment to continue to expand their ROS year-on-year because a lot of the play there is around strategic sourcing, the pricing excellence, the operational footprint and basically the complexity reduction play.

確實如此。在 Flow 方面，我們對第一季的 ROS 擴充非常滿意。我們再次說過，他們將是轉型計畫的主要受益者之一。因此，我預計該細分市場將繼續逐年擴大其 ROS，因為其中許多活動都圍繞著策略採購、卓越定價、營運足跡以及基本上降低複雜性的活動。

The next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩李。

Kudos on the solid execution here. I guess -- maybe as a follow-up to Mike's question. I mean, I think the most eye-catching metric was definitely the ROS and Flow -- looks like both price cost and transformation benefits were driving a lot of this. I know it's a little bit lumpy if we look historically, but what is kind of the right run rate to think of in this segment coming off this 20% result in Q1? How much more, I guess, price cost or transformation or anything else you want to outline as we think about year-on-year improvements in ROS, just particularly for Flow?

感謝這裡的紮實執行。我想——也許是麥克問題的後續。我的意思是，我認為最引人注目的指標絕對是 ROS 和 Flow——看起來價格成本和轉型收益在很大程度上推動了這一點。我知道如果我們從歷史角度來看，這有點不穩定，但是在第一季 20% 的結果中，該細分市場的正確運作率是多少？我猜，當我們考慮 ROS 的逐年改進時，尤其是 Flow，您想概述的價格成本、轉型或其他任何內容還有多少？

Yes. I mean just to reiterate what Bob said, I think we've done a nice job refocusing the business and driving transformation. One thing that really kind of helps is, if you think about Flow. There is a business inside of Flow. It's our sustainable gas business, which last year had several larger losing projects, and we've been able to right-size that business and bring those project executions back up to, let's call it, low single-digit margins.

是的。我的意思是重申鮑勃所說的話，我認為我們在重新調整業務重點和推動轉型方面做得很好。真正有幫助的一件事是，如果你考慮一下 Flow。 Flow裡面有一個業務。這是我們的可持續天然氣業務，去年有幾個較大的虧損項目，我們已經能夠調整該業務的規模，並將這些項目的執行率恢復到較低的個位數利潤率。

But we are getting a very favorable year-over-year comparison against those performance last year. So we do think this is a good starting point. And as we move through the year, we're going to continue to manage the mix and drive the transformation programs and really pleased with the Flow performance.

但與去年的表現相比，我們得到了非常有利的逐年比較。所以我們確實認為這是一個很好的起點。隨著這一年的發展，我們將繼續管理組合併推動轉型計劃，並對 Flow 的表現感到非常滿意。

Okay. Great. Helpful. And then second question, just when I look at Pool, again, I know quarter-to-quarter, this can kind of fluctuate, but productivity sort of reversed in Q1, 200 basis point headwind versus the tailwind. You saw last quarter, which was about the same 200 basis points. Is this all investment? Can you kind of break down or quantify how much it was this quarter? It seems like it might have been a big spend quarter.

好的。偉大的。有幫助。然後第二個問題，當我再次查看池時，我知道按季度計算，這可能會有所波動，但生產率在第一季度出現了逆轉，逆風與順風分別為 200 個基點。你看到上個季度的漲幅大約是 200 個基點。這就是全部投資嗎？您能細分或量化本季的金額嗎？看起來這可能是一個大支出季度。

And should we expect this drag for a few more quarters? Or does ROS go write back up positive year-on-year. I know you're saying growth is sequentially better throughout the year. How about, I guess, margins in ROS, in Pool specifically, as we think about the cadence?

我們是否應該預期這種拖累還會持續數季？或者 ROS 會比去年同期恢復正值嗎？我知道您是說全年成長逐年改善。我想，當我們考慮節奏時，ROS 中的邊距，特別是 Pool 中的邊距怎麼樣？

Yes. In my prepared remarks, I did mention that ROS and Pool will increase year-on-year for the balance of the year. So comfortable that we'll see ROS expansion within the Pool business. I think Q1 was a little bit unusual in that the volume was declining, but we have significant growth in Q2. And so some of the costs, the ramp-up of cost to service the strong Q2, obviously put a damper on the margins in the first quarter.

是的。在我準備好的發言中，我確實提到 ROS 和池將在今年剩餘時間逐年增加。如此舒適，我們將看到 ROS 在池業務中的擴展。我認為第一季有點不尋常，因為銷量正在下降，但第二季我們有顯著成長。因此，一些成本，即為強勁的第二季服務而增加的成本，顯然會抑制第一季的利潤率。

We also are continuing to invest to drive growth and transformation wasn't where we needed it to be within the Pool business. But those investments will pay off and further ROS expansion down the road. So again, comfortable with the ROS expansion in Pool, the remainder of the year. And again, as we ramp to significant growth in Q2, that will become a big manufacturing leverage play as well.

我們也繼續投資以推動成長，但池業務中的轉型並不是我們所需要的。但這些投資將會得到回報，並在未來進一步擴展 ROS。再說一次，今年剩下的時間裡，我們對 Pool 中的 ROS 擴展感到滿意。同樣，隨著我們在第二季度實現顯著成長，這也將成為製造業的巨大槓桿作用。

The next question comes from Damian Karas with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的達米安卡拉斯。

My first question is on the Pool business. You had mentioned in your slide that remodel inquiries are up. Could you give us a sense for how much are we talking here? Is that kind of across the board? Or was that also just like on the high-end side of the market? And is your expectation for remodel still kind of down low single digits for the year in your guidance?

我的第一個問題是關於泳池業務的。您在投影片中提到改造詢問有所增加。您能否讓我們了解我們在這裡談論了多少內容？是那種一刀切的情況嗎？或者這也像高端市場一樣嗎？在您的指導中，您對今年改造的期望是否仍然下降到低個位數？

Yes, to the second one. But we do feel there's some encouraging trends that will give us feeling that our dealers will start to take more orders, which would extend those into '25 and '26. I think with all the new Pools being built, there probably wasn't as much attention being spent to get in the remodel sequenced and completed. And I think we're encouraged that we're now seeing that part of the market get some demand from our customers. And again, this is primarily in the key Sunbelt states and more on aged Pools.

是的，到第二個。但我們確實覺得有一些令人鼓舞的趨勢，這將使我們感覺到我們的經銷商將開始接受更多訂單，這會將這些訂單延長到 25 年和 26 年。我認為隨著所有新泳池的建成，可能沒有花太多的精力來排序和完成改造。我認為我們感到鼓舞的是，我們現在看到這部分市場從我們的客戶那裡得到了一些需求。再說一次，這主要是在主要的陽光地帶州，更多的是在老化的泳池上。

Okay. That's encouraging to hear. And then could you just help us think about the Water Solutions in that 9% comp year-over-year. How are you thinking about the second quarter for the segment, kind of both in terms of top line and segment margin?

好的。聽到這個消息真是令人鼓舞。然後您能否幫助我們考慮 9% 的年比供水解決方案。您如何看待該細分市場第二季的營收和利潤率？

From a top line perspective, it's important to remind everyone what a large quarter Q2 was last year, especially within the Ice business. So we do see a decline year-on-year within Water Solutions as they bump up against that tough compare. So think of the Ice business and services having a bit of a headwind and then the filtration business continuing to grow nicely.

從收入的角度來看，重要的是要提醒大家去年第二季的業績，尤其是在製冰業務方面。因此，我們確實看到 Water Solutions 的業績年減，因為他們面臨嚴峻的比較。因此，想想製冰業務和服務遇到了一些阻力，然後過濾業務繼續良好成長。

The next question is from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

John and Bob, just maybe following up on Water Solutions. Look -- is Manitowoc Ice hanging in there a little bit more than you would have thought. Obviously, comps are tough as you just talked about. I think your guidance for commercial water was up low single digits for this year. Is that still what it is? And then what happened in services? And would you expect that to sort of come back as the year goes up?

約翰和鮑勃，也許只是跟進水解決方案。看看——馬尼托瓦克冰掛在那裡比你想像的要多一點。顯然，正如你剛才所說，比賽很艱難。我認為今年你們對商業用水的指導價成長了低個位數。現在還是這樣嗎？那麼服務業發生了什麼事？您預計隨著時間的推移這種情況會回來嗎？

Yes, on Ice. I think Ice is going to play out right now the way we expected it to. And as a reminder, as Bob said, tough compare in Q2. But overall, I think it's going to come in line with our expectation, and it still has resilience in the end industry, and we're feeling good about our filtration penetration, combined with that BU to drive it. We are going to dial our services business into more profitable annuity-based services as we exited some of the larger programs that we were doing with some of the large fast-food companies. And some of those were not very profitable, and we want to refocus the business into a simpler mix of service, more geared to the products that we install, and so we will see that be a little lumpy throughout the year as well.

是的，在冰上。我認為 Ice 現在會按照我們預期的方式發揮作用。提醒一下，正如鮑伯所說，第二季度的比較很艱難。但總的來說，我認為這將符合我們的預期，並且它在終端行業中仍然具有彈性，我們對我們的過濾滲透率以及推動它的業務部門感到滿意。隨著我們退出與一些大型快餐公司合作的一些大型項目，我們將把我們的服務業務轉向更有利可圖的年金服務。其中一些利潤不是很高，我們希望將業務重新集中到更簡單的服務組合上，更適合我們安裝的產品，因此我們會看到這一年的情況也有點不穩定。

It's helpful. And then, Bob, are you still thinking $75 million in productivity this year even with the slower start in Pool and the $4 million in total and productivity for Q1?

這很有幫助。然後，鮑勃，即使 Pool 開局較慢，第一季的總產值和生產率為 400 萬美元，您是否仍然認為今年的生產率為 7500 萬美元？

Yes. Again, we were pleased with the transformation readout in Flow and Water Solutions, but it was offset somewhat by the negative productivity and pool as we ramp up for Q2, still feeling very comfortable with the $75 million number and think of that as being fairly linear over the next 3 quarters.

是的。同樣，我們對流量和水解決方案的轉型讀數感到滿意，但隨著我們第二季度的增長，它在一定程度上被負生產力和池所抵消，仍然對7500 萬美元的數字感到非常滿意，並認為這是相當線性的未來3季。

The next question is from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Just a follow up to that bridge question for the year. Can you just update us on what you're thinking on price and then just the spread on price cost and price and inflation for the year?

只是今年橋樑問題的後續行動。您能否向我們介紹一下您對價格的最新看法，以及今年價格成本、價格和通貨膨脹的利差？

Yes. I think we're still hopeful we can get price to offset cost. I mean we did see a little incremental inflation start to enter Q1 into Q2. I think it's primarily around what we'd call freight and probably specifically copper. So we're monitoring that, Steve. If needed, we would go back out and see what we could recover from a price standpoint. And our goal is to, for the full year, try to offset price and cost.

是的。我認為我們仍然希望價格能夠抵銷成本。我的意思是，我們確實看到第一季和第二季開始出現一點增量通膨。我認為這主要是圍繞著我們所說的貨運，可能特別是銅。所以我們正在監控這一點，史蒂夫。如果需要，我們會回去看看從價格角度可以恢復什麼。我們的目標是全年努力抵消價格和成本。

Okay. And 2%-ish a price for the year. Is that still kind of in there? Or what you did -- 3% in the first quarter?

好的。全年價格上漲 2% 左右。那還在那裡嗎？或者你做了什麼——第一季成長了 3%？

Yes. We're still in that 2% for price and think about 3% inflation on the cost base. Those two would roughly offset from a dollar perspective.

是的。我們的價格仍處於 2% 的水平，並考慮成本基礎上的 3% 的通貨膨脹。從美元角度來看，這兩者大致抵消。

The next question comes from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自布萊恩布萊爾和奧本海默。

A quick follow-up on productivity and transformation read through. You said step up somewhat ratable for the next 3 quarters to get to the $75 million. Given the moving parts of Q1 and divergence in segment contribution, how should we think about how that drop-through shakes out for the segments?

關於生產力和轉型的快速跟進通讀。您說在接下來的 3 個季度要提高一些評級，以達到 7500 萬美元。考慮到第一季的變化和細分市場貢獻的差異，我們應該如何考慮細分市場的下降如何影響？

We expect Pool to have a very significant contribution in Q2 given its rate of growth and the fact that we, as Bob mentioned, we had some incremental investments to get the product prepared to ship in Q2. And so think about that as labor being roughly flat from Q1 to Q2 but getting a lot more revenue in Q2.

鑑於其成長率，以及正如鮑勃所提到的那樣，我們進行了一些增量投資以使產品準備在第二季度發貨，我們預計 Pool 將在第二季度做出非常重大的貢獻。因此，請考慮一下，從第一季到第二季度，勞動力大致持平，但第二季的收入卻增加了很多。

So that would be a huge contribution. Corporate is always a timing issue. Also, Bob didn't mention that, but we have higher corporate expenses that run in Q1 typical in the industry. And so that usually comes down as it heads into Q2 as well. But I think the rate of contribution will be -- the same for the other segments, and then we get the step-up in Pool.

所以這將是一個巨大的貢獻。企業始終是時機問題。此外，鮑伯也沒有提到這一點，但我們第一季的企業支出較高，這在產業中是典型的。因此，隨著進入第二季度，這種情況通常也會下降。但我認為其他細分市場的貢獻率將是相同的，然後我們在池中得到提升。

Yes. I appreciate the detail. And I understand that debt reduction is the priority near term with regards to capital deployment. Although with your second quarter cash flow, suspect by June-July time frame, you'll be under 2x levered. Any color you can offer on your M&A pipeline and whether we may see any deal for the second half of this year, it's better to anticipate you get back to that growth lever more 2025- time frame?

是的。我很欣賞細節。據我了解，減少債務是近期資本配置的首要任務。儘管根據您第二季的現金流量（懷疑到 6 月至 7 月的時間範圍），您的槓桿率將低於 2 倍。您可以對您的併購管道提供任何資訊嗎？

I agree with the comment that the cash flow is providing strong optionality for us. What was interesting is we started the year thinking there would be 3 rate cuts. We've now built into our guidance of $100 million of interest expense, no rate cuts. So we think that's prudent. We were able to keep the interest expense the same as our previous guide, primarily because the free cash flow is happening earlier in the year. So we look forward to a strong Q2 in free cash flow.

我同意現金流為我們提供了強大的選擇權的評論。有趣的是，我們年初認為會降息 3 次。我們現在已將 1 億美元的利息支出納入指導，但不降息。所以我們認為這是謹慎的。我們能夠將利息支出保持與先前的指南相同，主要是因為自由現金流發生在今年稍早。因此，我們期待第二季的自由現金流強勁。

To your point, we're right within our target range. We think there continues to be a debt reduction play to help the EPS. We'll restart the share repurchases to offset dilution. And then there remains optionality in terms of what drives the highest shareholder value.

就您而言，我們正處於目標範圍之內。我們認為，債務削減行動仍在繼續，以提振每股收益。我們將重新啟動股票回購以抵消稀釋。然後，就驅動最高股東價值的因素而言，仍存在選擇性。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to put a finer point on that second quarter sales guide. So in total, it's up 1 to 2 points year-on-year. Based on your comments, Bob, is it right to think about Waters may be down mid-single digits, Flow is flattish and then you've got Pool up 10% plus. Is that the right sort of framework for Q2 sales?

也許只是想對第二季的銷售指南進行更詳細的闡述。所以總的來說，年比上升了1到2個百分點。鮑勃，根據您的評論，認為 Waters 可能會下降中個位數，Flow 持平，然後 Pool 上漲 10% 以上，這樣的想法是否正確。這是第二季銷售的正確框架嗎？

I would agree with those numbers, Julian.

我同意這些數字，朱利安。

That's very helpful. And then just my Second question would really be around sort of the inventory situation. I think your own inventories are flattish sequentially in March, down a lot year-on-year. Maybe help us understand kind of how you're assessing inventories on the customer and channel partner level? And how do you assess your own sort of inventory rate versus kind of history for where we are in the year?

這非常有幫助。然後我的第二個問題實際上是關於庫存情況的。我認為你們3月份的庫存環比持平，比去年同期下降很多。也許可以幫助我們了解您如何評估客戶和通路合作夥伴等級的庫存？您如何評估您自己的庫存率與我們今年所處的歷史狀況？

From our perspective, inventory from a days on hand is still significantly higher. We go back to 2019 and see each of the segments has room for improvement. That being said, year-on-year, we were down roughly 10 days from an inventory on hand perspective. So we're moving in the right direction. To bring down those inventories, the volume will certainly help in the second quarter, but we're not quite where we want it to be.

從我們的角度來看，現有庫存仍然明顯較高。我們回顧2019年，看到每個細分領域都有改進的空間。話雖如此，從現有庫存角度來看，我們比去年同期減少了大約 10 天。所以我們正朝著正確的方向前進。為了降低庫存，第二季的銷售肯定會有所幫助，但我們還沒有達到我們想要的水平。

And then on the channel side, I think we're at normal levels. I think right now, we're working with our channel partners, and we're generally shipping through in the same quarter was being bought. So I feel like all that's behind us here in the Q2.

然後在頻道方面，我認為我們處於正常水平。我認為現在，我們正在與通路合作夥伴合作，我們通常在購買的同一季度發貨。所以我覺得第二季的一切都已經過去了。

The next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。

Just on Pool, I mean, John, you seem a little more confident in how things are shaping up, at least from the survey work. And I think you talked about kind of having these added costs to ramp. And so just wondering what it takes for you guys to kind of lift expectations there? And then just also any early read on the start of the Pool season here, I know weather was pretty disruptive last year.

就泳池而言，我的意思是，約翰，你似乎對事情的發展更有信心了，至少從調查工作來看是這樣。我認為您談到了增加這些額外成本的問題。所以想知道你們需要什麼才能提高期望？然後，還有關於這裡泳池季節開始的任何早期閱讀，我知道去年的天氣相當混亂。

Yes, Jeff, I appreciate the question. I mean just -- it's a reminder, I mean, Pool markets are -- and sell-through on a normal market basis, it'll still be down mid-single digits. So we're benefiting from those year-over-year easier compares as we ramp up and no longer have those inventory headwinds. And then I feel like we've got better insights and into the sell-throughs and the way that we now can work to get those shipments out in 5 days, where we're tying the shipments to the sell-throughs So yes, it does feel better and it feels like more normal, which is why we use the word normalized for a period of time. So I feel good about that.

是的，傑夫，我很欣賞這個問題。我的意思是——這是一個提醒，我的意思是，泳池市場——在正常市場基礎上的銷售量，仍然會下降中個位數。因此，隨著我們的產能增加並且不再面臨庫存阻力，我們正受益於這些同比更容易的比較。然後我覺得我們對銷售有了更好的洞察，以及我們現在可以在 5 天內發貨的方式，我們將發貨與銷售聯繫起來所以是的，它確實感覺好多了，感覺更正常了，這就是為什麼我們在一段時間內使用「正常化」這個詞的原因。所以我對此感覺很好。

Interest rates are going to be husky. And I think it's affecting the financing. It's affecting dealer financing and the sense of where they're getting their working capital loans from. It is going to continue to challenge the industry. And also, when interest rates are like this, we don't see movement from people selling their house and buying another house, which are -- what our business tends to like, the water doesn't taste the same and then you invest in a water filtration system.

利率將會很高。我認為這正在影響融資。它影響了經銷商的融資以及他們從哪裡獲得營運資金貸款的感覺。它將繼續挑戰該行業。而且，當利率是這樣的時候，我們不會看到人們賣掉自己的房子併購買另一棟房子，而這正是我們的企業所喜歡的，水的味道不一樣，然後你投資於水過濾系統。

So Jeff, we could use those lower interest rates at some point to send a signal that things are going to be brighter. And I think that, that's what we're reflecting in the -- in our current hold of the full year forecast. And then we feel confident we have transformation and we have cost out initiatives to make up the gaps if we continue to see this be challenged as we head through the back half of the year.

所以傑夫，我們可以在某個時候利用較低的利率來發出一個信號，表明事情將會變得更加光明。我認為，這就是我們目前對全年預測的反映。然後，我們對我們的轉型充滿信心，如果我們在今年下半年繼續看到這一點受到挑戰，我們就會採取措施來彌補差距。

Okay. And then just -- Home Depot is buying kind of the #2 player in Pool. And I'm just wondering if you think that drives any change in behavior or kind of tougher customer to kind of deal with anything...

好的。然後，家得寶（Home Depot）正在購買撞球遊戲中排名第二的玩家。我只是想知道您是否認為這會導致行為發生任何變化，或者導致客戶變得更強硬以處理任何事情...

I think this year, short term, no. Clearly, the deal is going to take a while to complete. I mean, I think all we can do right now is take Home Depot and SRS Heritage on their words and what they're saying right now is they expect to run that independently and continue to service the pro channel. And -- for now, that's the way we would see it unfolding and therefore, not a short-term impact that we anticipate.

我認為今年，短期內，不會。顯然，這筆交易需要一段時間才能完成。我的意思是，我認為我們現在能做的就是相信 Home Depot 和 SRS Heritage 的話，他們現在所說的是他們希望獨立運作並繼續為專業頻道提供服務。目前，這就是我們所看到的情況，因此不會產生我們預期的短期影響。

The next question is from Nathan Jones with Stifel.

下一個問題是 Nathan Jones 和 Stifel 提出的。

Question on Water Solutions. You talked about some verticals there that are expected to improve as year-over-year challenges moderate. Is there an expectation that demand is actually improving sequentially here? Is that just a comment that you run into some easier comparisons as the year goes by and those comparisons just get easier in the second half of the year?

關於水解決方案的問題。您談到了一些垂直領域，隨著逐年挑戰的緩和，這些垂直領域預計會得到改善。是否預期需求實際上正在持續改善？這是否只是一個評論，隨著時間的推移，你會遇到一些更容易的比較，而這些比較在今年下半年會變得更容易？

From an overall end market perspective, I would say it's more the latter, Nathan, in terms of -- we can't with interest rates the way they are and people not buying new homes get too much ahead of ourselves on the residential side. So pleased to see that the decline year-on-year is improving for the last 4 or 5 quarters. But again, it's not as robust as we would like it to be.

從整體終端市場的角度來看，我想說更多的是後者，內森，就利率而言，我們不能按照現在的方式進行，而且不購買新房的人們在住宅方面過於領先。很高興看到過去四、五個季度年減趨勢有所改善。但同樣，它並不像我們希望的那樣強大。

Okay. And are you seeing any parts of those channels? I know we've talked a lot about the Pool inventory channel. But any parts of the channel at Water Solutions that might still be reducing their own inventory? I mean you guys have talked about reducing your inventory further. So potentially, is there any destocking still continuing in any channel, whether it's Water Solutions or, I guess, across the portfolio?

好的。您是否看到這些頻道的任何部分？我知道我們已經討論了很多關於池庫存渠道的問題。但是 Water Solutions 通路中的任何部分可能仍在減少自己的庫存嗎？我的意思是你們已經討論過進一步減少庫存。那麼，是否有任何管道仍在繼續去庫存，無論是 Water Solutions 還是整個投資組合？

Not that we're aware of, Nathan. I mean right now, we would say that sell-throughs matching sell-in generally across the industry.

我們不知道，內森。我的意思是，現在我們會說整個行業的銷售量與銷售量普遍匹配。

The next question is from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩‧德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Can we circle back on the opening comments, you talked about the -- that you're halfway through value-based pricing. Would love to hear some of the early read on the traction and whether any disruptions? And then I guess it's a related question, the same thing on 80/20. Just any success stories there? And any kind of product shakeouts, product lines that might be deemphasized? Any color there would be helpful.

我們能否回顧一下開頭的評論，您談到了基於價值的定價已經進行了一半。很想聽聽一些關於牽引力以及是否有任何干擾的早期讀物？然後我猜這是一個相關的問題，在 80/20 上也是同樣的問題。有什麼成功案例嗎？還有任何類型的產品洗牌、可能被削弱的產品線嗎？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. So we're doing a good job utilizing the pricing playbooks that we have. And I'm really proud of the businesses utilizing those tools to affect outcomes strategically in their business. And again, this is just more strategic pricing and more thoughtful value-based pricing. That being said, I said this at Investor Day, and I have now gone through a full session of training.

是的。因此，我們在利用現有的定價策略方面做得很好。我為那些利用這些工具策略性地影響其業務成果的企業感到自豪。再說一次，這只是更具策略性的定價和更周到的基於價值的定價。話雖這麼說，我在投資人日說過這句話，現在我已經接受了完整的訓練。

I kick myself for not having done 80/20 sooner. Because what we're learning from 80/20 is the complexity in the portfolio is all being treated equally. And what we need to do is think of our A parts or our top parts to our top customers getting differential treatment, and that's where we can be more innovative. That's where we can spend our energies for sourcing and pricing effectively.

我後悔自己沒有早點完成 80/20。因為我們從 80/20 學到的是，投資組合的複雜性都被平等對待。我們需要做的是考慮我們的 A 零件或我們的頂級零件，讓我們的頂級客戶得到差別對待，這就是我們可以更具創新性的地方。這就是我們可以有效地投入精力進行採購和定價的地方。

And then we get, like most companies, you get all the complexity that you introduced over time, either the secondary parts of those top customers or secondary parts to which we call the lower-end customers, that drive the complexity in the organization and drive too many resources where there's very little impact that you can have.

然後，像大多數公司一樣，我們會隨著時間的推移而引入所有的複雜性，無論是那些頂級客戶的次要部分，還是我們稱之為低端客戶的次要部分，這會推動組織的複雜性並推動資源太多，但你所能產生的影響很小。

I mean, Deane, I'll give you this. I mean, think about any regulatory change and thinking about how you treat that equally, it should really just be focused on your top parts to your top customers to your top regions, right? So we're going to get a lot of value from that. And I think it comes from the complexity reduction, but I think it's really more of a growth tool because it's going to allow us to double down and really focus our innovative efforts to the top products that we have into the top end markets that we have with our best customers.

我的意思是，迪恩，我會給你這個。我的意思是，考慮任何監管變化，並考慮如何平等地對待它，它實際上應該只專注於您的頂級零件、您的頂級客戶、您的頂級地區，對嗎？所以我們將從中獲得很多價值。我認為這來自於複雜性的降低，但我認為它實際上更像是一種成長工具，因為它將使我們能夠加倍努力，真正將我們的創新努力集中在我們擁有的頂級產品上，進入我們擁有的高端市場與我們最好的客戶。

That's real helpful. I think we talked about it at the Analyst Day, it's less about cutting lines and it's more about optimizing growth. Is that right?

這真的很有幫助。我想我們在分析師日討論過這個問題，它不是關於削減生產線，而是更多關於優化成長。是對的嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

All right. Good. And then just I've asked about this before because I just kind of the voice of the customer on the Pool side is all this interest in automation, the extent to which you can automate testing and any sort of updates on the Pool chemicals and so forth, operation and the equipment? Just where does automation stand in terms of the take rate of your customers?

好的。好的。然後我之前就問過這個問題，因為我只是池方客戶的聲音是對自動化的所有興趣，您可以自動化測試的程度以及池化學品的任何類型的更新等等四、操作及設備？就客戶的接受率而言，自動化處於什麼位置？

I mean it's still about where it used to be, Deane. And I think -- we think this year will be a higher level of penetration as people have time to think. And our dealers have time to get caught up and learn and then be more productive in how they help the end customers get what they need. I think we have to make it simpler and we have to take the complexity out of that portfolio as well. And then I think we also have to think about how do we bring the right value proposition -- for the overall pad. And I think those 2 things will help us really change and accelerate that penetration rate.

我的意思是它仍然是原來的位置，迪恩。我認為，我們認為今年的滲透率將會更高，因為人們有時間思考。我們的經銷商有時間投入和學習，然後更有效率地幫助最終客戶獲得所需的東西。我認為我們必須讓它變得更簡單，我們也必須消除該投資組合的複雜性。然後我認為我們還必須考慮如何為整個墊子帶來正確的價值主張。我認為這兩件事將幫助我們真正改變並加快滲透率。

The next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

I want to come back to Pool. So just some of the preordering activity received, as most of that shipped out in the fourth and first or do you have some feather into the second quarter, just try to think about any revenue visibility there?

我想回到泳池。因此，僅收到了一些預訂活動，因為大部分在第四季度和第一季度發貨，或者您在第二季度是否有一些羽毛，請嘗試考慮那裡的收入可見性？

It's strongly in the second, to be honest. I mean, it balances out between Q4 and Q1, but most of this is about servicing the Pool channel in the season, which will be Q2, and then adjusting within season, which would be Q3 for us.

老實說，這是第二個。我的意思是，它在第​​四季度和第一季之間取得了平衡，但其中大部分是在本賽季（即第二季度）為池頻道提供服務，然後在賽季內進行調整（對我們來說，這將是第三季）。

Okay. And then just back to capital allocation, certainly, deals are episodic. But I guess at what point if deals aren't coming into view, do you lean a little bit heavier into repo? Is that an H2 event? Or do you think you assess M&A for the course of '24 and we should think of incremental repurchase as more of a '25 event?

好的。然後回到資本配置，當然，交易是偶發的。但我想如果交易沒有出現在什麼時候，你會更傾向回購嗎？這是H2事件嗎？或者您認為您評估 24 年期間的併購，我們應該將增量回購視為更多 25 年事件嗎？

Well, we're going to have strong cash flow in Q2, we expect, as we normally seasonally do. And then as Bob mentioned, I think our first step is we just got to reinstate buyback to offset dilution and get that (inaudible) part of the capital allocation strategy. And then we're always looking at potential bolt-on M&A and pleased that we're at least seeing some things now and if we can transact them or get them over the finish line, that's yet to be determined. And we got valuations, we've got performance that has to be looked at. But ultimately, I think we're excited that we're at least looking at things again.

嗯，我們預計，第二季我們將擁有強勁的現金流，就像我們通常季節性的那樣。然後，正如鮑伯所提到的，我認為我們的第一步是我們必須恢復回購以抵消稀釋並獲得資本配置策略的（聽不清楚）部分。然後，我們一直在尋找潛在的補強併購，很高興我們現在至少看到了一些事情，如果我們可以交易它們或讓它們越過終點線，這還有待確定。我們有估值，我們有必須關注的業績。但最終，我認為我們很興奮，因為我們至少重新審視了事情。

The next question comes from Andrew Buscaglia with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的安德魯‧巴斯卡利亞 (Andrew Buscaglia)。

I just wanted to check on the Flow side, you had mentioned resi weaker than expected, down about 12%. Can you just remind us what's behind that kind of -- what's driving that? And then any concerns that your markets are different, but that leads into other areas?

我只是想檢查 Flow 方面，您提到 Resi 弱於預期，下降了約 12%。您能否提醒我們這種現象背後的原因是什麼？然後是否擔心您的市場有所不同，但這會導致其他領域？

Two particular markets: it's water supply, water disposal. North America, which specifically is in-ground well pumps and what you'd say is pivot spray irrigation. That's it. I think it was just clear to us within the quarter that it's not worth running any promos or specials or thinking about dealer stock outs that we really just have to understand that the market is going to be softer and work within that softer market to drive the transformation levers that we need.

兩個特殊市場：供水、水處理。北美，具體來說是地下井泵，你會說是樞軸噴灌。就是這樣。我認為我們在本季度就清楚地意識到，不值得進行任何促銷或特價活動，也不值得考慮經銷商缺貨，我們實際上只需要了解市場將會變得更加疲軟，並在這個疲軟的市場中努力推動我們所需要的轉型槓桿。

And then on the topic of areas of weakness in resi outside of Flow, all sounds strong, but I guess...

然後關於 Flow 之外的 Resi 弱點領域的話題，一切聽起來都很強大，但我想...

Yes, Pool's got the year-over-year inventory tailwinds, which are helpful, again, still mid-single digits down and from a market perspective. And then residential water treatment saw severely severe jobs in their outlook last year. And so they're really more sequentially flat as they're moving throughout the year here, which if you said that's a sign of positive, they're not down substantially. But they're not seeing signs of improvement either as some of those higher-end systems require financing to move them.

是的，Pool 的庫存同比有所增加，這再次起到了幫助作用，但從市場角度來看，庫存仍然下降了中個位數。去年，住宅水處理業的就業前景非常嚴峻。因此，隨著全年的變化，它們實際上更加連續平坦，如果你說這是一個積極的跡象，那麼它們並沒有大幅下降。但他們也沒有看到改善的跡象，因為其中一些高階系統需要融資才能移動。

The next question is from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Saree Boroditsky。

So you made the comment that was positive on remodels and aftermarket Pool. Could you just update us on how you're thinking about new Pool construction for the year?

因此，您對改造和售後泳池發表了正面的評論。您能否向我們介紹一下您對今年新泳池建設的看法？

Right now, we're thinking about exactly the same as in our original guide. And it's down versus historical standards. But I think overall, from an industry perspective, we're working within that context and no update at this time.

現在，我們正在考慮與原始指南中完全相同的內容。與歷史標準相比，它有所下降。但我認為總體而言，從行業角度來看，我們正在這種背景下開展工作，目前沒有更新。

And then guidance implies you realized about 50% of your earnings second half, but I guess I would have expected to be slightly higher given the Pool recovery and transformational benefits. So what's kind of the offset to that, that's driving second half earnings to be similar to the first half?

然後，指導意味著你下半年實現了約 50% 的收入，但考慮到資金池的復甦和轉型效益，我想我預計會略高一些。那麼，是什麼抵銷了這一點，使得下半年的獲利與上半年相似呢？

Yes. Again, we're pleased at the -- on our last earnings call, we talked about EPS being down slightly in the first half, and now we're at the point where it's roughly 50-50. So again, the strength of the first half is reading out. And we feel strongly that the momentum will continue in the second half. That's in line with traditionally how the business is operated, roughly 50-50.

是的。我們再次感到高興的是，在上次財報電話會議上，我們談到了上半年每股收益略有下降，而現在我們的每股收益約為 50-50。再說一次，上半場的優勢在於讀出。我們強烈感覺到下半年這種勢頭將持續下去。這與傳統的業務運作方式一致，約為 50-50。

The next question is from Andrew Krill with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的安德魯·克里爾。

I just wanted to have a quick follow-up on the EPS kind of seasonality question. I think it makes sense on the 50-50 split. Just wondering for 3Q versus 4Q, I think historically, those are somewhat similar. Should we be expecting that? Or is there any reason maybe it's a little more 4Q heavy as more the transformation benefits flow through?

我只是想快速跟進 EPS 類型的季節性問題。我認為 50-50 的劃分是有道理的。只是想知道第三和第四季度，我認為從歷史上看，它們有些相似。我們應該期待這一點嗎？或者有任何原因可能是隨著更多的轉型收益流過，第四季的比重會更大一些？

I think I would just say the normal cadence for our business would be generally the same or if not more skewed a little bit more to Q3 versus Q4. Most of our dealer trade businesses, which is 75% of what we do, don't see a very strong close to the year. Most people don't want them inside their homes during the holidays.

我想我只想說我們業務的正常節奏大致相同，或者如果不是更偏向第三季與第四季。我們的大多數經銷商貿易業務（占我們業務的 75%）在今年收盤時表現並不強勁。大多數人不希望他們在假期期間留在家裡。

And then we don't have that normal industrial cycle where there's a push to ship everything by the end of the year. The things that will skew that is depending on what the Pool season is for the subsequent year. And then that sometimes leads to stronger earlier shipments in Q4, and we have no idea what that's going to look like at this stage.

然後我們沒有正常的工業週期，即在年底前推動所有產品的發貨。會發生偏差的事情取決於下一年的泳池季節。有時這會導致第四季的早期出貨量增加，但我們不知道現階段會是什麼樣子。

Okay. Great. Very helpful. And then a quick follow-up just on backlog, I know you're more of a book-and-ship business, but just a lot of (inaudible) to that kind of a more normalized cycle patterns, et cetera. Just is it reasonable to expect like the small backlog the segments have now you think are lower kind of exiting this year and that should be the more normal run rate into 2025?

好的。偉大的。很有幫助。然後對積壓訂單進行快速跟進，我知道您更多的是預訂和發貨業務，但只是很多（聽不清楚）那種更標準化的週期模式，等等。您是否可以合理地預期，像您認為今年退出的細分市場中的少量積壓訂單，這應該是 2025 年更正常的運行速度？

We would agree with that, that the majority is the shorter cycle and that backlogs would be lower at the end of this year as the more normal operating conditions continue.

我們同意這一點，即大多數是較短的周期，隨著更正常的營運狀況持續下去，今年年底積壓訂單將會減少。

The next question comes from Scott Graham with Seaport Research.

下一個問題來自海港研究公司的史考特‧格雷厄姆。

I have two of them. The first one is on strategic pricing, maybe a little bit more finer to the point. With the pricing guide that you've given -- that you gave on the call here earlier, suggests a little bit of a bleed off in pricing for the rest of the year, notwithstanding if you increase prices, of course. What is strategic pricing due to the pricing number? In other words, let's say that bleeds off to 2% for the balance of the year. Does that sustain 2% into next year, the pricing initiatives?

我有兩個。第一個是策略定價，可能更切題。根據您之前在電話會議上提供的定價指南，建議今年剩餘時間的定價會下降，當然，儘管您會提高價格。定價數字帶來的策略定價是什麼？換句話說，假設今年剩餘時間下降至 2%。明年的定價措施是否會維持 2% 的水準？

Yes. Strategic pricing would do 2 things. First of all, it helps you have confidence that the price you set is the right value that you should expect, meaning you looked at the features and you priced accordingly. The second thing it allows you to do is hold firmer on your rebate structures. So that's usually where the net pricing benefit comes on.

是的。策略定價有兩件事。首先，它可以幫助您確信您設定的價格是您應該期望的正確值，這意味著您查看了功能並相應地定價。它允許您做的第二件事是更加堅定您的回扣結構。因此，這通常就是淨定價優勢的體現。

So there's list pricing, which is usually higher. And then what did you net or would you realize. I don't know if we have next year's dialed in yet, but we usually drive it to be, as Bob said, price offsetting cost. And when we take a look at material inflation and costs, we're going to try to drive enough pricing actions to at least be neutral along those two elements.

所以有標價，通常會更高。然後你得到了什麼或你會意識到什麼。我不知道明年是否已經撥通，但正如鮑伯所說，我們通常會推動價格抵銷成本。當我們考慮物質通膨和成本時，我們將嘗試推動足夠的定價行動，至少在這兩個要素上保持中立。

Okay. My follow-up is around margin guide. I know 22%. It's just -- the first quarter was really strong margin quarter and you had no -- really no benefit from volume, yet a little bit of benefit from mix, but it wasn't necessarily the Pool, right? So the rest of the year, you have building strategic savings, the transformation. You have a building mix in Pool, which is could be material with volumes. I'm just sort of wondering if 22% it just seems like you should be able to get there fairly easily. Are you thinking higher than that potentially?

好的。我的後續行動是圍繞保證金指南。我知道22%。只是 - 第一季的利潤率確實很高，而且你沒有 - 實際上沒有從銷量中受益，但從混合中獲得了一點好處，但這不一定是池，對吧？因此，今年剩下的時間裡，你需要進行策略性儲蓄和轉型。泳池中有一個建築組合，它可能是具有體積的材料。我只是想知道 22% 是否看起來你應該能夠相當容易地到達那裡。你的想法是否可能比這更高？

I would start by saying the midpoint of our guide does suggest that we're slightly higher than the 22%. And overall, for the reasons you mentioned, there's potential upside on that ROS expansion. So I like the idea that price is going to offset inflation, transformation then drive that ROS expansion. And then mix can play in it, plus or minus.

我首先要說的是，我們指南的中點確實顯示我們略高於 22%。總的來說，由於您提到的原因，ROS 擴展有潛在的好處。所以我喜歡這樣的想法：價格將抵消通貨膨脹，轉型然後推動 ROS 擴張。然後混合可以在裡面播放，加或減。

We got -- we saw some favorable mix in Q1, but having a slightly lower Ice business, that's a profitable business as an example. So price offsetting inflation, factoring in mix and then transformation potentially reading out better could drive an improved ROS expansion story.

我們在第一季看到了一些有利的組合，但冰業務略有下降，這是一個盈利業務的例子。因此，價格抵消通膨、考慮混合因素以及轉型可能會帶來更好的結果，從而推動 ROS 擴張故事的改善。

The next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.

下一個問題來自喬·佐丹奴和考恩。

I think most questions have largely been asked already. But just kind of curious, like bigger picture, EPA comes out with regulations on PFAS. This is something that you guys were thinking about doing like potentially like an in-home product. I'm just curious how those kind of strategies, kind of how you weigh those against kind of the 80/20 and the simplicity and wanting to focus on things that you know have a real market? And how does that dynamic play out in your thought process for things like that.

我認為大多數問題基本上已經被問過。但只是有點好奇，就像更大的圖景一樣，美國環保署 (EPA) 推出了有關 PFAS 的法規。這是你們正在考慮做的事情，就像潛在的家用產品一樣。我只是好奇這些策略如何，你如何權衡這些策略與 80/20 的策略以及簡單性以及想要專注於你知道有真正市場的東西？這種動態在你對這類事情的思考過程中是如何發揮作用的？

I think it's a great question. I think 80/20 helps optimize the current revenue streams you have, but it also needs to apply to your focus on what you think you can do to make a larger impact in the future. And I think we're getting better at choosing fewer, more impactful innovation projects. And I'm still behind what we're doing with the whole home system that we're working on.

我認為這是一個很好的問題。我認為 80/20 有助於優化您目前的收入來源，但它也需要讓您專注於您認為可以做的事情，以便在未來產生更大的影響。我認為我們在選擇更少、更有影響力的創新項目方面做得越來越好。我仍然支持我們正在開發的整個家庭系統。

And I do believe that there's a strong progress around that. And the more awareness we get in water and homes, and the more people are concerned about what they're consuming and drinking, I think that's better for us.

我確實相信這方面已經取得了巨大進展。我們對水和家庭的認識越多，人們就越關心他們所消費和飲用的東西，我認為這對我們來說更好。

The reason I don't get all pounding the table on the movements on the regulatory side is we just don't see people running out right now to buy the current products that we have that actually create or solve the problems today. So there has to be something else that occurs to get the consumer focused. And as you look at the longer term, I think we're very energetic. I think the shorter term, we're less optimistic that we're going to see a shorter-term impact.

我之所以沒有對監管方面的動向進行猛烈抨擊，是因為我們沒有看到人們現在跑去購買我們現有的產品，這些產品實際上會造成或解決今天的問題。因此，必須採取其他措施來吸引消費者的注意。從長遠來看，我認為我們非常有活力。我認為從短期來看，我們對看到短期影響不太樂觀。

Today's final question is a follow-up from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

今天的最後一個問題是摩根大通史蒂夫·圖薩 (Steve Tusa) 的後續提問。

Just one last quick one. On the 2Q, do we just assume that basically that entire, call it, I don't know, $25 million to $30 million that's effectively from the transformation for the 2Q?

只是最後一件事。在第二季度，我們是否只是假設基本上整個，我不知道，2500 萬到 3000 萬美元實際上來自第二季度的轉型？

Yes. In terms of reading out, we've captured $4 million of the $75 million. And then -- our view is that the remaining $70 million is fairly linear over the next 3 quarters.

是的。在讀出方面，我們已經捕獲了 7500 萬美元中的 400 萬美元。然後，我們的觀點是，剩餘的 7,000 萬美元在接下來的 3 個季度內呈線性增長。

Right. So that basically accounts for all the year-over-year profit improvement, like roughly for the second quarter?

正確的。那麼這基本上就是所有同比利潤改善的原因，就像第二季一樣？

Yes. With Pools incremental volume growth being offset a little bit by the year-over-year impacts in Water Solutions, but you're not far off.

是的。隨著水池增量數量的增長被水解決方案的同比影響所抵消，但您已經離目標不遠了。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to John Stauch for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議轉回約翰·斯托奇（John Stauch）做閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining us. In closing, I want to reiterate our key themes. First, solid execution across our balanced water portfolio drove significant margin expansion for the eighth consecutive quarter.

感謝您加入我們。最後，我想重申我們的關鍵主題。首先，我們平衡水產品組合的穩健執行推動利潤率連續第八個季度大幅成長。

Second, we are reiterating our full year 2024 guidance which reflects confidence in our strategy while continuing to monitor uncertainty across the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. We are mitigating risk where we can and being more agile as we expect to achieve new performance records in 2024 and drive long-term shareholder value.

其次，我們重申 2024 年全年指引，這反映了對我們戰略的信心，同時繼續監控宏觀經濟和地緣政治格局的不確定性。我們正在盡可能降低風險並變得更加敏捷，因為我們預計在 2024 年實現新的業績記錄並推動長期股東價值。

Third, we are pleased with our progress on our transformation initiatives, which we expect to continue to drive strong margin expansion. And finally, we expect to continue to deliver value creation beyond the 2024 fiscal year.

第三，我們對轉型措施的進展感到高興，我們預計這些舉措將繼續推動利潤率的強勁成長。最後，我們預計在 2024 財年之後繼續創造價值。

Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.

謝謝大家，祝您有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。