濱特爾 (PNR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Pentair second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

    大家早安,歡迎參加 Pentair 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)另請注意,今天的活動正在被記錄。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the floor over to Shelly Hubbard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

    現在,我想把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Shelly Hubbard。女士,您可以開始了。

  • Shelly Hubbard - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Shelly Hubbard - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and welcome to Pentair's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me are John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our second-quarter performance as outlined in this morning's press release.

    謝謝接線員,歡迎參加 Pentair 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 John Stauch 和我們的財務長 Bob Fishman。在今天的電話會議上,我們將提供今天上午新聞稿中概述的第二季業績的詳細資訊。

  • On the Pentair Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings release and slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provide a reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that we will reference. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP.

    在 Pentair 投資者關係網站上,您可以找到我們的收益報告和幻燈片,旨在補充我們在今天電話會議上準備好的發言,並提供我們將參考的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的差異的對帳。所提供的非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為替代或優於依照 GAAP 編製的財務績效指標。

  • They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.

    它們作為額外的澄清項目,旨在幫助投資者進一步了解公司的表現以及這些項目和事件對財務結果的影響。

  • Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Pentair. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

    在我們開始之前,請允許我提醒您,在今天的演示中,我們將做出前瞻性陳述,即對未來事件的預測、預計或其他陳述。請聽眾注意,這些聲明受到一定風險和不確定性的影響,其中許多風險和不確定性難以預測且通常超出 Pentair 的控制範圍。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。

  • We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K. Please note that during the presentation today, we will be making references to record financial results. These references reflect the time period post the invent separation in 2018. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. (Operator Instructions)

    我們建議聽眾仔細查看我們最新的 10-Q 表和 10-K 表中的風險因素。請注意,在今天的演示中,我們將參考記錄財務結果。這些參考資料反映了 2018 年發明分離後的時期。在我們準備好發言之後,我們將開始提問。(操作員指示)

  • I will now turn the call over to John.

    現在我將把電話轉給約翰。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Shelley, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before we get to our record Q2 results, I want to take a moment to recognize our entire Pentair team. Your leadership has helped to elevate us to new levels of financial and operational execution in an extremely volatile environment. Thank you for putting our customers first and continuing to drive shareholder value.

    謝謝你,雪萊,大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。在我們獲得創紀錄的第二季業績之前,我想花點時間來表彰我們整個 Pentair 團隊。您的領導幫助我們在極度動盪的環境中將財務和營運執行提升到新的水平。感謝您將客戶放在第一位並持續推動股東價值。

  • Now let's turn to the Q2 executive summary on slide 8. We delivered a record quarter across all four metrics: sales, adjusted operating income, return on sales, and adjusted EPS and one of the most continuously challenging dynamic landscape globally.

    現在讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片上的第二季執行摘要。我們在銷售額、調整後營業收入、銷售回報率和調整後每股收益這四項指標上均創下了新紀錄,並且是全球最具持續挑戰性的動態環境之一。

  • In Q2, sales increased 2% and pool grew 9%, adjusted operating income increased 9%. ROS expanded by 170 basis points to 26.4%, and adjusted EPS rose 14% to $1.39. We also delivered record free cash flow and repurchased $75 million of shares in Q2.

    第二季度,銷售額成長 2%,游泳池成長 9%,調整後營業收入成長 9%。營收成長170個基點至26.4%,調整後每股盈餘成長14%至1.39美元。我們也實現了創紀錄的自由現金流,並於第二季回購了價值7,500萬美元的股票。

  • Driven by continued confidence in our ability to execute, we have increased our full-year '25 guidance. We now expect sales growth of approximately 1% to 2% and adjusted EPS to be approximately $4.75 to $4.85, up 11% at the midpoint versus full-year 2024.

    在對執行能力持續信心的推動下,我們提高了 25 年全年業績預期。我們現在預計銷售額將成長約 1% 至 2%,調整後每股收益約為 4.75 美元至 4.85 美元,與 2024 年全年相比中位數成長 11%。

  • In Q2, we made an incremental investment in an exciting new start-up known as Hope Hydration, whose mission is to deliver free water through its digitally connected water refill hydro stations, which generate revenue from advertising and sponsorships. These hydro stations use Everpure technology from Pentair Water Solutions to bring free, high-quality, and chilled drinking water to cities, stadiums, airports, and commercial spaces.

    在第二季度,我們對一家名為 Hope Hydration 的令人興奮的新創公司進行了增量投資,該公司的使命是透過其數位連接的補水水力發電站提供免費水,並透過廣告和贊助產生收入。這些水力發電廠採用 Pentair Water Solutions 的 Everpure 技術,為城市、體育場、機場和商業空間提供免費、高品質、冰鎮的飲用水。

  • We are excited to help hope accelerate their growth strategy, broaden their impact and helped to reduce the consumption of single-use plastic water models.

    我們很高興能夠幫助希望加速他們的成長策略,擴大他們的影響力,並幫助減少一次性塑膠水模型的消耗。

  • Let's move to the strategic overview on slide 9. At Pentair, we are continuously evolving to drive consistent, long-term shareholder value. We have talked about our transformation initiatives and more recently, 80/20. At the same time, our teams are also focused on driving growth within their businesses and investing in strategic growth initiatives, including high-performing talent, new and breakthrough product innovations, go-to-market strategies, and digital transformation.

    讓我們轉到第 9 張投影片上的策略概述。在 Pentair,我們不斷發展以推動持續、長期的股東價值。我們討論了我們的轉型舉措以及最近的 80/20。同時,我們的團隊也專注於推動業務成長並投資於策略性成長計劃,包括高績效人才、新的突破性產品創新、市場進入策略和數位轉型。

  • We remain on track to deliver our expected transformation savings this year, and we expect continued margin opportunity beyond 2026, as we accelerate the implementation of 80/20 and and the transformation progress continues. The softer residential end market has enabled us to focus on improving our overall business and best position Pentair to leverage higher demand when residential end markets recover.

    我們仍有望在今年實現預期的轉型節約,並且隨著我們加快實施 80/20 政策和繼續推進轉型進程,我們預計 2026 年後仍將保持盈利機會。住宅終端市場疲軟使我們能夠專注於改善整體業務,並使 Pentair 處於最佳位置,以便在住宅終端市場復甦時利用更高的需求。

  • We believe the catalyst to an improving housing market will be lower interest rates. Lastly, we continue to remain agile in a rapidly changing macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

    我們相信,降低利率將成為房地產市場改善的催化劑。最後,我們在快速變化的宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境中繼續保持敏捷。

  • Let's turn to slide 10. We shared this slide with you last quarter, which shows the success of our transformation program. Since the beginning of 2023, we have delivered over $200 million in transformation savings, net of investments, which includes the $44 million we drove in the first half of this year. We have committed to a total of $80 million in 2025 net of investments, and we see additional savings in 2026 to achieve our ROS target of 26% by 2026 year-end.

    讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片。我們在上個季度與大家分享了這張幻燈片,它展示了我們轉型計劃的成功。自 2023 年初以來,我們已實現超過 2 億美元的轉型成本節約(扣除投資),其中包括今年上半年節省的 4,400 萬美元。我們已承諾在 2025 年淨投資總額達到 8,000 萬美元,並且預計 2026 年將有更多節省,從而實現 2026 年底 26% 的 ROS 目標。

  • I'm very grateful for what our teams have accomplished, and I am energized with the opportunity to drive further benefits in the next several years.

    我非常感謝我們的團隊所取得的成就,並且對未來幾年取得進一步利益的機會充滿信心。

  • Before I hand the call over to Bob, let's turn to slide 11. There are several key themes that I wanted to share. We delivered a record quarter in Q2. We increased our full-year 2025 guidance due to increased confidence in our strategy. We continue to build a foundation of optimal operational efficiency that can be leveraged when volume returns to normal. We have a balanced water portfolio and a capital-light business model with 75% of our businesses going through two-step distribution, and roughly 75% of our revenue, representing replacement sales.

    在我將電話交給鮑伯之前,讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片。我想分享幾個關鍵主題。我們在第二季創下了紀錄。由於對我們的策略更有信心,我們提高了 2025 年全年業績預期。我們將繼續建立最佳營運效率的基礎,以便在產量恢復正常時能夠加以利用。我們擁有均衡的水務組合和輕資本業務模式,其中 75% 的業務透過兩步驟分銷,約 75% 的收入來自替代銷售。

  • And we have strong free cash flow, a solid balance sheet and a balanced capital deployment strategy to accelerate earnings and return on invested capital. As a focused water company providing solutions to move, improve and enjoy water, we continue to believe that we are well positioned to address opportunities from favorable secular trends by getting water to where it needs to be, and away from where it doesn't and by filtering and purifying water for people that drink and enjoy.

    我們擁有強勁的自由現金流、穩健的資產負債表和均衡的資本配置策略,以加速獲利和投資資本的回報。作為一家專注於提供移動、改善和享受水的解決方案的水務公司,我們始終相信,透過將水輸送到需要的地方,遠離不需要的地方,並透過過濾和淨化水供人們飲用和享受,我們完全有能力抓住有利的長期趨勢帶來的機會。

  • I will now pass the call over to Bob, who will discuss our performance and financial results in more detail. Bob?

    我現在將電話轉給鮑勃,他將更詳細地討論我們的業績和財務結果。鮑伯?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide 12. As John mentioned, we delivered a record quarter in sales, adjusted operating income, return on sales, and adjusted EPS in Q2 despite lower volume.

    謝謝你,約翰,大家早安。我們從第 12 張投影片開始。正如約翰所提到的,儘管銷量較低,但我們在第二季度的銷售額、調整後營業收入、銷售回報率和調整後每股收益均創下了紀錄。

  • We also drove record free cash flow. In Q2, we delivered sales of $1.1 billion, up 2% and adjusted operating income of $297 million, up 9%, ROS of 26.4%, which expanded 170 basis points, driven primarily by transformation and price. And adjusted EPS of $1.39, up 14%.

    我們也實現了創紀錄的自由現金流。第二季度,我們的銷售額達到 11 億美元,成長 2%,調整後營業收入達到 2.97 億美元,成長 9%,ROS 為 26.4%,擴大了 170 個基點,主要得益於轉型和價格。調整後每股收益為 1.39 美元,成長 14%。

  • Core sales were up 1% year-over-year, driven by 7% growth in pool, which was offset by a 1% decline in Flow and a 3% decline in Water Solutions. Moving to the adjusted operating income walk on the right-hand side, price and transformation drove significant margin expansion in Q2. Inflation was approximately $37 million, which included about $15 million of tariff impact. We also delivered strong transformation savings of $20 million.

    核心銷售額年增 1%,其中泳池銷售額成長 7%,但流量銷售額下降 1% 以及水處理解決方案銷售額下降 3% 抵消了這一增長。轉到右側的調整後營業收入,價格和轉型推動第二季利潤率大幅擴大。通貨膨脹率約為 3700 萬美元,其中包括約 1500 萬美元的關稅影響。我們也實現了 2000 萬美元的強勁轉型節約。

  • Please turn to slide 13. Flow sales were flat year-over-year. Within Flow, residential sales were down 1% as higher interest rates continued to pressure residential end markets, but the rate of decline has improved considerably over the last two years. Commercial sales rose 1%, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales growth, and industrial sales were flat, but a nice improvement versus the last few quarters.

    請翻到第 13 張投影片。流量銷售額與去年同期持平。在 Flow 中,由於較高的利率繼續給住宅終端市場帶來壓力,住宅銷售額下降了 1%,但過去兩年下降率已大幅改善。商業銷售額成長 1%,這是連續第 12 個季度實現同比增長,工業銷售額持平,但與前幾季度相比有了很大的改善。

  • Segment income grew 10% and return on sales expanded 210 basis points to 23.4%. The strong margin expansion was a result of continued progress on our transformation initiatives as Flow continue to benefit from improvements in its go-to-market strategies and its focus on complexity reduction.

    分部營收成長 10%,銷售報酬率擴大 210 個基點至 23.4%。利潤率的強勁成長得益於我們轉型計畫的持續進展,Flow 持續受益於其市場進入策略的改善和對降低複雜性的關注。

  • Please turn to slide 14. In Q2, Water Solutions sales declined 4% to $298 million driven primarily by lower volume, which was partially offset by higher price. Commercial sales were down 3%, largely driven by softer end markets within foodservice. Within residential, sales were down 6% year-over-year, primarily due to a continued sluggish US housing market and portfolio actions to improve the growth and profitability of the business.

    請翻到第 14 張投影片。第二季度,水處理解決方案銷售額下降 4% 至 2.98 億美元,主要原因是銷量下降,但價格上漲部分抵消了這一影響。商業銷售額下降 3%,主要原因是餐飲服務終端市場疲軟。住宅銷售額較去年同期下降 6%,主要原因是美國房地產市場持續低迷,以及為提高業務成長和獲利能力而採取的投資組合行動。

  • During the quarter, we also strategically divested our small commercial services business. The dynamics of the lower-margin service business had changed over the last couple of years, and this allows us to focus even more on our higher-margin filtration and ICE businesses. Segment income declined 4% to $70 million and return on sales was flat at 23.5%. We drove significant transformation savings during the quarter and price offset inflation.

    本季度,我們也策略性地剝離了小型商業服務業務。過去幾年,利潤率較低的服務業務的動態發生了變化,這使我們能夠更加專注於利潤率較高的過濾和 ICE 業務。分部收入下降 4% 至 7,000 萬美元,銷售回報率持平於 23.5%。我們在本季度實現了顯著的轉型節約,並且價格抵消了通貨膨脹。

  • Please turn to slide 15. In Q2, pool sales increased 9% to $427 million driven by price, volume, and our Q4 2024 Gulfstream acquisition. Segment income was $153 million, up 14% and return on sales increased 160 basis points to 35.7%, driven by price and transformation. We do expect price versus cost to normalize in Q3 and as we incur a full quarter of tariffs.

    請翻到第 15 張投影片。在第二季度,受價格、銷量以及我們 2024 年第四季度收購灣流的推動,泳池銷售額增長了 9%,達到 4.27 億美元。受價格和轉型推動,分部收入為 1.53 億美元,成長 14%,銷售回報率增加 160 個基點至 35.7%。我們確實預計價格與成本將在第三季恢復正常,並且我們將承擔整個季度的關稅。

  • Please turn to slide 16. We generated record free cash flow of $596 million in Q2, up 14% year-over-year. Our balance sheet remains strong, and our return on invested capital surpassed 16%. Long term, we continue to target high teens ROIC. Our net debt leverage ratio was 1.2 times, down from 1.6 times a year ago. Year-to-date, we have repurchased $125 million of shares.

    請翻到第 16 張投影片。我們在第二季創造了創紀錄的 5.96 億美元自由現金流,年增 14%。我們的資產負債表依然強勁,投資資本報酬率超過 16%。長期來看,我們將繼續以高十幾歲的投入資本回報率為目標。我們的淨負債槓桿率為1.2倍,低於一年前的1.6倍。今年迄今為止,我們已回購了價值 1.25 億美元的股票。

  • Over the last two years, we have generated significant free cash flow, which has enabled us to strategically deploy capital via debt paydown, dividends, share repurchases, and strategic acquisitions. We plan to remain disciplined with our capital and have additional flexibility to strategically allocate additional capital to areas with the highest shareholder returns.

    在過去兩年中,我們產生了大量自由現金流,這使我們能夠透過償還債務、派發股息、股票回購和策略性收購來策略性地部署資本。我們計劃繼續嚴格控制資本,並擁有更大的靈活性,將額外資本策略性地分配到股東回報最高的領域。

  • Let's turn to our outlook on slide 17. For the full year, we are increasing our adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $4.75 to $4.85, which is up roughly 10% to 12% year-over-year. Also for the full year, we are increasing our sales guidance to up approximately 1% to 2% despite an approximate $40 million headwind relating to the sale of our commercial services business in Q2.

    讓我們來看看第 17 張投影片上的展望。對於全年,我們將調整後的每股盈餘預期上調至約 4.75 美元至 4.85 美元,年增約 10% 至 12%。此外,儘管第二季出售商業服務業務為我們帶來了約 4,000 萬美元的不利影響,我們仍將全年銷售額預期上調至約 1% 至 2%。

  • We expect Flow sales to be up low single digits, Water Solutions to be down mid-single digits with core sales approximately flat and pool sales to be up approximately 6% to 7%. We expect adjusted operating income to increase approximately 7% to 9%. We continue to expect to drive approximately $80 million in transformation savings this year, net of investments.

    我們預計 Flow 銷售額將成長低個位數,Water Solutions 銷售額將下降中位數個位數,核心銷售額將基本持平,泳池銷售額將成長約 6% 至 7%。我們預計調整後的營業收入將成長約 7% 至 9%。我們仍然預計今年的轉型成本(扣除投資)將節省約 8,000 萬美元。

  • For the third quarter, we expect sales to be approximately flat to up 1%. We expect Flow sales to be up approximately mid-single digits. We anticipate Water Solutions sales to be down approximately mid- to high-single digits, with core sales approximately flat including commercial water sales to be up approximately low to mid-single digits. Pool sales are expected to be up approximately 3% to 4%.

    對於第三季度,我們預計銷售額將大致持平或成長 1%。我們預期 Flow 的銷售額將成長約中等個位數。我們預計水解決方案銷售額將下降約中高個位數,核心銷售額將基本持平,其中商業用水銷售額將成長約低至中個位數。預計泳池銷售額將成長約 3% 至 4%。

  • We expect third-quarter adjusted operating income to increase approximately 4% to 7%. We're also introducing adjusted EPS guidance for the third quarter of approximately $1.16 to $1.20, up roughly 6% to 10%.

    我們預計第三季調整後的營業收入將成長約 4% 至 7%。我們也推出了第三季調整後的每股盈餘預期,約 1.16 美元至 1.20 美元,上漲約 6% 至 10%。

  • Let's turn to slide 18. We are executing well in an uncertain environment. We've updated our 2025 tariff impact to be approximately $75 million for the full year, which includes $15 million in Q2 and an estimated $60 million in the second half of 2025. This $75 million, which is included in our guidance compares to our previous estimate in Q1 of $140 million. The reduction in the China tariff rates from 145% to 30% in Q2 was the primary driver of the decrease in our full year tariff impact estimate.

    讓我們翻到第 18 張投影片。我們在不確定的環境中表現良好。我們已將 2025 年關稅影響更新為全年約 7,500 萬美元,其中包括第二季的 1,500 萬美元和 2025 年下半年的預計 6,000 萬美元。這 7500 萬美元包含在我們的指導中,而我們之前對第一季的估計為 1.4 億美元。中國關稅稅率在第二季從 145% 降至 30%,這是我們全年關稅影響估計下降的主要原因。

  • We have increased prices and implemented mitigation strategies across our businesses to offset the expected tariff impact. Our 2025 guidance does not include the possibility of an additional $10 million in tariffs related to copper, the European Union, and other countries, which could take effect on August 1. We expect to take mitigating actions as needed to offset these additional tariffs if they occur.

    我們已提高價格並在所有業務中實施緩解策略,以抵消預期的關稅影響。我們的 2025 年指引不包括對銅、歐盟和其他國家額外徵收 1,000 萬美元關稅的可能性,該關稅可能於 8 月 1 日生效。如果發生這些額外關稅,我們預計將採取必要的緩解措施來抵消這些關稅。

  • We continue to monitor the rapidly changing landscape and remain agile to quickly adjust as necessary. We have a strong balance sheet and free cash flow along with a balanced capital allocation strategy. We plan to continue to deploy capital in areas that drive the highest returns for our shareholders. while being mindful of protecting capital during periods of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

    我們持續監測快速變化的形勢,並保持敏捷,並根據需要快速調整。我們擁有強勁的資產負債表和自由現金流以及均衡的資本配置策略。我們計劃繼續將資本部署在為股東帶來最高回報的領域,同時注意在宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定時期保護資本。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A, after which John will have a few closing remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.

    現在我想將電話轉給接線員進行問答,之後約翰將發表一些結束語。接線員,請打開熱線來回答問題。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,現在開始問答環節。(操作員指示)

  • Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Nice quarter. John, could you talk about what you're seeing in pool in terms of unit volumes and sensitivity to higher prices -- as I think Q2 at 7% core growth came in at the higher end of expectations. So was that better-than-expected volume or more price? And then you raised pool for the year to up 6% to 7% versus, I think, up 4% to 5% where you were before. Where is the improvement coming from? Is it less assumed demand degradation? Any color between new pools, renovation break and fix would be helpful.

    不錯的季度。約翰,您能否談談您對游泳池的單位數量和對更高價格的敏感度的看法——我認為第二季度 7% 的核心增長率處於預期的高位。那麼,這是交易量好於預期還是價格上漲了呢?然後,您將年度資金池提高到 6% 至 7%,而我認為,之前的漲幅是 4% 至 5%。進步從何而來?是否較少假設需求下降?新泳池、翻新中斷和修復之間的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean I think we're now seeing an environment that we would expect new pool builds that we generally thought were flat to maybe modestly up, now feeling like they'll be modestly down. I think also on the remodel side, we're seeing that environment be deferred. I feel like there's a little bit of a slide to the right that's occurring on some of the larger projects.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為我們現在看到這樣一種環境:我們預計新建游泳池的數量會持平甚至略有上升,但現在感覺會略有下降。我認為在改造方面我們也看到環境被推遲。我感覺一些較大的項目出現了稍微向右下滑的現象。

  • And we're also seeing customers extend product life by spare parts, spare part kits, and seeing a little bit more repairs than we would have normally seen in these types of environments. I think all of that's got to be driven by the incremental prices.

    我們也看到客戶透過備件、備件套件延長產品壽命,而且維修次數比我們在這種環境下通常看到的要多一些。我認為所有這些都是由增量價格推動的。

  • I mean, overall -- I mean, we're up about 15% in price in the trailing 12 months, the whole industry is. And I think at some point, that's starting to have effect as people are waiting for the interest rates to reduce. So overall, I mean, we're getting the price, which is great. We're seeing volume flattish to slightly down, which is in line with our expectations.

    我的意思是,總體而言——我的意思是,在過去的 12 個月裡,我們的價格上漲了約 15%,整個行業都是如此。我認為,在某種程度上,這會開始產生影響,因為人們正在等待利率降低。所以總的來說,我們得到的價格非常好。我們看到交易量持平或略有下降,這符合我們的預期。

  • But we're not seeing the acceleration of it that we would normally have expected as we head into the back half of the year. So all of that's adjusted in the guide. I think we feel good about our positioning. We feel good about what we're doing from a new product development and new introduction, but we got to get this market going.

    但進入下半年,我們並沒有看到我們通常預期的加速。因此,指南中已對所有內容進行了調整。我認為我們對自己的定位感到滿意。我們對新產品開發和新產品推廣的工作感到滿意,但我們必須讓這個市場運作起來。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And then, John, Bob, I'm just trying to understand how you're thinking about price versus cost for the year because I think you passed through I think it was 75% of the pricing on that original $140 million in expected tariffs in early April. It's a lot higher than the $75 million of expected total tariff costs you have now.

    非常有幫助。然後,約翰、鮑勃,我只是想了解你們是如何看待今年的價格與成本的,因為我認為你們已經通過了,我認為這是 4 月初最初 1.4 億美元預期關稅定價的 75%。這比目前預計的 7500 萬美元總關稅成本要高得多。

  • So are you forecasting rebating in the year, baking in some contingency for maybe new tariff costs that could come on August 1? How are you thinking about price versus cost in your guide?

    那麼,您是否預測今年會有退稅,並為 8 月 1 日可能出現的新關稅成本預留一些應急資金?您在指南中如何考慮價格與成本?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. Generally, in terms of the tariff, we're thinking about price offsetting the tariffs. If you remember back at the beginning of Q1, we had estimated the tariff impact that roughly $150 -- $140 million in year, and that was primarily driven by that high China tariff. Now when we size it, it's closer to that $75 million.

    是的。一般來說,就關稅而言,我們考慮用價格來抵銷關稅。如果你還記得,在第一季初,我們估計關稅的影響約為每年 1.5 億至 1.4 億美元,這主要是由於高額的中國關稅造成的。現在,當我們計算其規模時,它更接近 7500 萬美元。

  • So think of roughly a $65 million benefit from those lower tariffs. We also talked at the beginning of Q2 around staggering our pricing. So doing some pricing in April, some in May and some in June. Because of the reduction in the tariffs, we are not going out with roughly $50 million of price that was built into the beginning of Q2 forecast.

    因此,降低關稅大約可以帶來 6500 萬美元的收益。我們也在第二季初討論了分階段定價的問題。因此,有些定價是在四月,有些是在五月,有些是在六月。由於關稅降低,我們不會以第二季初預測的約 5000 萬美元的價格出售。

  • So if you think about it, $65 million lower in tariff, $50 million less price for a net $15 million benefit, and we've raised the guidance about that amount.

    所以如果你想想,關稅降低了 6500 萬美元,價格降低了 5000 萬美元,淨收益為 1500 萬美元,而且我們已經提高了該金額的指導價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Yeah. So just a follow-up on that. So I guess is the price that we see in the numbers today, it seems like that only reflects part of what you guys have put through given the timing in the quarter, understanding you guys aren't going out with the other -- the rest of the price you thought you'd need to cover the tariffs.

    是的。這只是對此的一個跟進。所以我猜我們今天在數字中看到的價格似乎只反映了你們在本季度的時間安排下所付出的部分努力,理解你們不會與其他價格一起出去——你們認為需要支付關稅的其餘價格。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's correct. I mean we will have a normalized, what I'd say, a more normal price increase, Steve, in our normal pool season that will be slightly higher than an average year, which reflects generally more commodity inflation. In general cost of inflation.

    沒錯。我的意思是,在我們的正常游泳池季節,我們將有一個正常化,我想說的是更正常的價格上漲,史蒂夫,這將略高於平均年份,這通常反映了更多的商品通膨。整體而言,通貨膨脹的成本。

  • But the recognition of that, as you recall, that goes out as prelude early by, and we don't necessarily receive that this year, receive it next year. But there's no other scheduled tariff increases at the moment in our guide.

    但正如你所記得的,對這一點的認識很早就開始了,我們不一定在今年就能得到,也可能在明年才能得到。但我們的指南中目前沒有其他預定的關稅上調。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Right. But I mean --

    正確的。但我的意思是--

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That would change, Steve, if we get big headwinds, we're going to have to go back and talk to our customers and put those through the channel. But right now, we're not anticipating those.

    史蒂夫,如果我們遇到巨大的阻力,情況就會改變,我們將不得不回去與我們的客戶交談,並透過管道解決這些問題。但目前我們還沒有預料到這些。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Right. But does the 2Q price of, I think, it's like $47 million, $48 million or something like that, that doesn't reflect the full run rate of what you put through because you put through stuff in May and June. So you should have a bit more of a step-up yet to come in -- the run rate for 3Q will be more reflective of what you're getting for the second half of the year?

    正確的。但是,我認為第二季的價格是 4700 萬美元、4800 萬美元或類似的數字,這並不能反映出你們的全部運行率,因為你們在 5 月和 6 月就完成了一些工作。那麼,你們應該還有更多的提升空間——第三季的運行率將更能反映你們下半年的業績嗎?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • That's correct. You'll see a little bit more price in the back half of the year.

    沒錯。今年下半年你會看到價格稍微漲一點。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Slightly more in Q4 than Q3, but you'll see that price begin to accelerate in Q3 and Q4, Steve. And you'll also see more inflation because as we said on that one slide, we didn't realize all of the tariffs -- so we have a little bit more headwind in tariffs in Q4.

    第四季的價格會比第三季略高一些,但你會看到價格在第三季和第四季開始加速上漲,史蒂夫。而且你還會看到通貨膨脹加劇,因為正如我們在那張投影片上所說的那樣,我們沒有意識到所有的關稅——所以我們在第四季的關稅方面會面臨更大的阻力。

  • C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

    C. Stephen Tusa - Analyst

  • Yeah, of course. And then just lastly, on the fourth quarter, is there anything you're planning for? I mean, how are you thinking about seasonality in the fourth quarter? Is there any there -- is most of the caution on the end markets and pool reflected in the 3Q guide? Or is there something that you would expect to trigger in the -- in the 4Q on that front?

    是的,當然。最後,關於第四季度,您有什麼計劃嗎?我的意思是,您如何看待第四季的季節性?有沒有——第三季指南是否反映了對終端市場和資金池的大部分謹慎?或者您預計在第四季會引發某些事件?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I have a little bit more caution in Q3 with Q4, we're anticipating a 2026 full year and more people positioning themselves into the 2026, look for how they're going to work with their customers on the remodels and the new pool builds. I'm hopeful that we're going to see some interest rate reduction at some point, Steve, and then we're going to need some time lag between those interest rates as they get reduced and when people get excited that they can start investing again.

    我對第三季和第四季更加謹慎,我們預計 2026 年全年將有更多人將自己定位於 2026 年,尋找如何與客戶合作進行改造和新泳池建設。史蒂夫,我希望我們能夠在某個時候看到利率降低,然後我們需要在利率降低和人們興奮地再次開始投資之間留出一些時間差。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Brian Lee。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Maybe just on the pool guidance here. You raised it a couple of hundred bps. Can you -- I might have missed this, but did you delineate how much of that is being driven by price implementation and what you're seeing in price capture and pull forward versus. Is there any improvement in demand underlying the increase in the guidance? Or has anything changed on the volume demand side of the equation for your guidance for pool this year?

    也許只是這裡的泳池指導。你把它提高了幾百個基點。你能——我可能錯過了這一點,但你是否描述過其中有多少是由價格實施驅動的,以及你在價格捕獲和拉動中看到的情況。指導價上調是否意味著需求有所改善?或者,今年您對游泳池的指導在容量需求方面有什麼變化嗎?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • The way we're thinking about the 6% to 7% guide for pool, which is up from 4% to 5% last quarter is roughly a couple of points from the acquisition that we did in Q4 of 2024. Then we've got price of, call it, approximately 5% and then down slightly for the reasons John mentioned with volume. You've got lower new pool demand and remodels as well as a bit softer aftermarket. So that's the pieces that make up the 6% to 7%.

    我們對游泳池的指導價格為 6% 至 7%,比上一季的 4% 至 5% 有所上升,與我們在 2024 年第四季進行的收購相比,漲幅大約有幾個百分點。然後我們得到的價格大約是 5%,然後由於約翰提到的交易量原因而略有下降。新泳池需求和改造泳池需求較低,售後市場也略顯疲軟。這就是佔 6% 到 7% 的部分。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. That's helpful. And then I know John alluded to this, I mean you're optimistic or maybe hopeful that interest rate will be coming and that could help set the tape for '26. But if we're in this higher for longer environment, and we see the macro persist here into -- well into 4Q?

    好的。很公平。這很有幫助。然後我知道約翰提到了這一點,我的意思是你對利率的到來感到樂觀或充滿希望,這可能有助於為 26 年設定目標。但是,如果我們長期處於這種較高的環境中,並且看到宏觀經濟持續到第四季呢?

  • And what are your early reads into kind of what the pool build cycle is going to look like next year in that environment? And what are the volume trends you would anticipate as some of the pricing tailwinds from this year maybe dissipate -- like what's the normal rate if this is the macro we're going to be seeing for the next, let's call, 6 to 12 months persisting?

    在這種環境下,您對明年泳池建設週期的前景有何初步看法?隨著今年的一些定價順風可能消散,您預計交易量趨勢會如何?例如,如果這種宏觀形勢在未來 6 到 12 個月內持續下去,那麼正常利率是多少?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, I don't know yet. I think as we build our planning cycle, we'll get more around that as we head guide. I think right now, our anticipation is that volume remains a little bit sluggish. And what we've got to do is grow our content per pad from NPI introductions, sales and marketing campaigns, making sure that our dealers are well informed as to the new products and how to install those new products and really get the industry excited about the benefits of automation.

    是的。我的意思是,我還不知道。我認為,隨著我們建立規劃週期,我們將在指導下獲得更多相關資訊。我認為現在我們預計交易量仍然會有點低迷。我們要做的就是透過新產品介紹、銷售和行銷活動來增加每份宣傳冊的內容,確保我們的經銷商充分了解新產品以及如何安裝這些新產品,並真正讓整個行業對自動化的好處感到興奮。

  • Those still remain the top of growth levers for us regardless of the pools are growing or not. These levels of pool builds, we haven't seen these since after the financial crisis of '08, '09 and '10. So it's been -- the whole industry is anticipated that would come up from here. I think it's just a matter of when. I think if price -- if inflation rates or interest rates don't come down, then I think people are wondering when the build cost and/or the overall build starts to soften.

    無論資金池是否在成長,這些仍然是我們最重要的成長槓桿。自 2008、2009 和 2010 年金融危機以來,我們還沒有見過如此大規模的游泳池建設。所以,整個產業都預計會從這裡崛起。我認為這只是時間問題。我認為,如果價格——如果通貨膨脹率或利率不下降,那麼人們就會想知道建築成本和/或整體建築何時會開始走軟。

  • I don't see that happening. So I think what we're talking about is wealthier second home buyers that are building homes in the warm weather states still, and that's the primary 80% of our sales going to those areas. So that's what we're anticipating. Too early to call '26 for right now.

    我不認為這種情況會發生。所以我認為,我們談論的是那些仍然在氣候溫暖的州建造房屋的富裕的第二套房屋購買者,而我們的 80% 的銷售額主要流向這些地區。這就是我們所期待的。現在就斷言 26 年還為時過早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nathan Jones, Stifel.

    內森瓊斯(Nathan Jones),Stifel。

  • Nathan Jones - Analyst

    Nathan Jones - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a question on a bit more of the longer cycle, more CapEx-driven businesses, which I think probably mostly sit in the Flow. Maybe you could just talk about the environment there, how tariffs and how, I guess, the macro ones into your potentially impacting customer decision-making, deferred capital spending, things that would impact your order book or your quoting rather than what's in demand today?

    我想問一個關於更長週期、更多由資本支出驅動的業務的問題,我認為這些業務可能主要位於流程中。也許您可以談談那裡的環境,關稅以及宏觀因素如何影響客戶決策、遞延資本支出,這些因素可能會影響您的訂單或報價,而不是當前的需求?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. We were pretty candid and transparent that we certainly saw in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, a little bit of slowing in the order books and the quoting activity. We did see some pickup here in Q2. And in fact, we have booked orders as we head into Q3 and Q4 and feel pretty optimistic about some of those longer cycle businesses, saw a recurring some investment in the infrastructure Flow side.

    是的。我們非常坦率和透明,我們確實看到去年第四季和今年第一季的訂單和報價活動有所放緩。我們確實看到第二季度有所回升。事實上,在進入第三季和第四季時,我們已經預訂了訂單,並且對一些週期較長的業務感到非常樂觀,看到了基礎設施流程方面的一些反覆投資。

  • And we also saw some of our industrial businesses inside of that Flow segment, also see some pickups as we head into the remainder of the year.

    我們也看到,Flow 部門內的一些工業業務在進入今年剩餘時間時也出現了一些回升。

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. Really pleased to be able to guide Flow to roughly mid-single-digit growth in Q3 and then to up the full year from up slightly to up low-single digits. So good momentum for Flow exiting the year, for sure.

    是的。非常高興能夠引導 Flow 在第三季度實現大約中等個位數的成長,然後將全年的成長從小幅上升到低個位數。因此,Flow 今年的勢頭肯定很好。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • mm the anniversary some of those difficult residential comps, meaning we've got easier comparisons and residential and we're starting to get the non-residential piece of our business as a growth contributor as we exit the year in Flow.

    在周年紀念日,一些困難的住宅比較,意味著我們有更容易的比較和住宅,並且我們開始將非住宅業務部分作為增長貢獻者,因為我們在流動中度過了這一年。

  • Nathan Jones - Analyst

    Nathan Jones - Analyst

  • Obviously, those are a little bit longer cycle, takes longer to book, takes longer to turn them into revenue and earnings. So does that improving strength there, improving orders ptend to -- a growth here in 2026 for those businesses?

    顯然,這些週期會更長一些,需要更長的時間來預訂,需要更長的時間才能將其轉化為收入和收益。那麼,這些企業實力的提升、訂單的增加是否意味著 2026 年將實現成長?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I mean, I think it's encouraging, but we're more in the configured to order side which is -- and more standard order side so we're recognizing things within a quarter or two, Nathan. So we're not as long cycled as some companies may be. So these are pretty standard projects and pretty standard deliveries for us.

    是的,我的意思是,我認為這是令人鼓舞的,但我們更多的是在配置訂單方面 - 以及更多的標準訂單方面,所以我們會在一兩個季度內認識到事情,內森。因此,我們的周期並不像某些公司那麼長。所以對我們來說這些都是非常標準的項目和非常標準的交付。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • I just wanted to understand a little bit better the moving parts on the op profit or EBITDA guide. So the EBITDA guide unchanged at $1.1 billion or so. You pushed up the revenue guide a point or so. So is the delta there with the smaller gross tariff headwind and the higher sales guide, but the unchanged EBITDA guide, is the main moving parts weaker volumes at pool and then some small effect on the divestment earnings? It sounds like that's pretty low margin in that business.

    我只是想更了解營業利潤或 EBITDA 指南中的變動部分。因此 EBITDA 指引保持不變,仍約 11 億美元。您將收入指南提高了大約一個百分點。那麼,總關稅逆風較小、銷售指南較高,但 EBITDA 指南不變的情況下,主要變動部分是聯營交易量較弱,然後對撤資收益產生一些小影響嗎?聽起來該行業的利潤率相當低。

  • But is there anything else in that bridge on the EBITDA guide now versus prior?

    但是,與之前相比,現在的 EBITDA 指南中還有哪些內容呢?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Not really. In fact, you've got rounding. As income goes up, EBITDA will go up. So if you think about the raise in our guide of, call it, $0.07, I think about roughly $0.05 is the business, so the income piece, so call that $10 million, and the rest is below the line because of the strength of our free cash flow in Q2, we're getting about $0.02 because of lower interest expense.

    並不真地。事實上,你已經進行了四捨五入。隨著收入的增加,EBITDA 也會增加。因此,如果您考慮我們指南中的加薪,稱之為 0.07 美元,我認為大約 0.05 美元是業務,所以是收入部分,所以稱之為 1000 萬美元,其餘部分低於該線,因為我們第二季度的自由現金流強勁,由於利息支出較低,我們獲得了約 0.02 美元。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just to hone in a little bit on the Water Solutions segment. As I think that's come up much yet. So maybe help us understand, I think first half organic sales were down low-single digits. The year is guided flattish core.

    這很有幫助。然後稍微深入討論一下水解決方案部分。我認為這已經很多了。所以也許可以幫助我們理解,我認為上半年有機銷售額下降了個位數。今年是引導核心趨於平緩的一年。

  • So help us understand the confidence in that acceleration in the back half in water. And maybe any more clarity on that commercial divestments. How much of that old KBI services business is being installed? And what's the margin on it?

    因此,請幫助我們理解在水中後半部加速的信心。也許對商業撤資還有更清楚的認知。有多少舊的 KBI 服務業務正在安裝?它的利潤是多少?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. So let me start with the KBI sale in Q2. So that was the business that we acquired back in 2021. Over time, what we've realized is the dynamics of that business has changed quite a bit. And so the sale of that business for us was really to focus more on the higher-margin filtration and ice businesses to exit that lower-margin services business.

    是的。那麼就讓我從第二季的 KBI 銷售開始。這就是我們在 2021 年收購的業務。隨著時間的推移,我們意識到該業務的動態已經發生了很大變化。因此,對我們來說,出售該業務實際上是為了更專注於利潤率較高的過濾和製冰業務,退出利潤率較低的服務業務。

  • And as a result, we really avoid significant cash outlays into the future. So that is a margin-accretive, smart decision for us as we focus more on our core businesses of ICE and filtration. That will result in us losing roughly $20 million per quarter in Q3 and Q4 based on the sale of that services business. That's implicit, that's included in the guide.

    因此,我們確實避免了未來大量的現金支出。因此,這對我們來說是一個增加利潤的明智決定,因為我們將更加專注於我們的核心業務 ICE 和過濾。這將導致我們在第三季和第四季因出售該服務業務而每季損失約 2,000 萬美元。這是隱含的,包含在指南中。

  • When you think about how the business is doing first half versus second half, I'll start with the residential piece. As you know, we were going through a lot of portfolio rationalization. We'll have one more quarter of that in Q3 for residential and then that business should start to stabilize.

    當您思考上半年和下半年的業務表現時,我將從住宅部分開始。如您所知,我們正在進行大量的投資組合合理化調整。第三季度,我們將再增加一個季度的住宅業務,然後該業務應該開始穩定。

  • On the commercial water side, excluding services, we did have a disappointing Q2. We saw a softer food service market than we expected. But in the back half of the year, we do expect growth of low to mid-single digits as that business slowly recovers in terms of the ice in the filtration business.

    在商業用水方面,不包括服務,我們第二季的表現確實令人失望。我們發現食品服務市場比我們預期的要疲軟。但在今年下半年,隨著過濾業務的冰塊緩慢復甦,我們預期成長率將達到低至中個位數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

    布萊恩布萊爾,奧本海默。

  • Bryan Blair - Analyst

    Bryan Blair - Analyst

  • I'm hoping you can offer a little more detail on the decision to divest KBI. We knew at the outset that, that was a lower margin asset. Had that had the ROS level deteriorated significantly relative to when you purchase the business? Because there seem to be pretty natural synergies between Everpure, Manitowoc and KBI's. So there must have been a trigger there.

    我希望您能提供更多關於剝離 KBI 決定的細節。我們一開始就知道,那是一項利潤率較低的資產。與您購買該企業時相比,ROS 水平是否已經顯著下降?因為 Everpure、Manitowoc 和 KBI 之間似乎存在著非常自然的協同作用。因此那裡一定有一個觸發因素。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So we had a -- we bought a services company. The expectation was at the time there was a part that went into the water replacement, think about every pure cartridges and solving those challenges. And then there was a frozen carbonated beverage rearrangement for a key hamburger customer.

    是的。所以我們——我們收購了一家服務公司。當時的預期是,有一個部分涉及水的更換,考慮每個純淨的墨盒並解決這些挑戰。然後,為一位重要的漢堡客戶重新安排了冷凍碳酸飲料。

  • What we learned is that we were in a lot of low-density routes in rural environments. And while we had a good penetration of our water change outs, we were able to grow. And ultimately, we had a fixed price contract, and we were absorbing substantial labor inflation and also lost services revenue from driving and routes.

    我們了解到,我們位於鄉村環境中的許多低密度路線上。並且,當我們的換水滲透率很高時,我們仍能成長。最終,我們簽訂了固定價格合同,承受了巨額勞動力通膨,同時也損失了駕駛和路線服務的收入。

  • And the opportunity would have been to invest more deeply and expand our presence, which really creates channel conflict with some really good partners that we have that do this already or to hand this over to somebody who's already in the industry for them to get synergies from it. And that's a decision we ultimately made.

    而機會本來是進行更深入的投資並擴大我們的影響力,這實際上會與一些已經這樣做的優秀合作夥伴產生渠道衝突,或者將這一業務交給已經在該行業中的某人,以便他們從中獲得協同效應。這是我們最終做出的決定。

  • So I mean dynamics changed drastically during this period, and we made the best decision going forward that we could. And we're very comfortable that we still have the right customer relationships there, and we've got the right service to serve the channel.

    所以我的意思是,在此期間,動態發生了巨大變化,我們做出了最好的決定。我們非常高興我們在那裡仍然擁有良好的客戶關係,並且我們擁有合適的服務來服務該管道。

  • Bryan Blair - Analyst

    Bryan Blair - Analyst

  • Okay. That makes a lot of sense. I appreciate the detail. And sticking with Water Solutions, you've offered your take on commercial and residential dynamics and outlook. Perhaps do the same with US versus international business?

    好的。這很有道理。我很欣賞這個細節。堅持水解決方案,您已經提出了對商業和住宅動態和前景的看法。也許對美國和國際業務也採取同樣的做法?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean I think the amount of rationalization in residential water treatment reflects its global footprint. A strong large footprint in Europe and a pretty big one in China as well. So we're making sure we're well positioned in the longer term and making sure that we're in the higher end of the market, and we're not in the commodity side that's reflected a lot of the revenue that we're walking away from and really trying to strengthen the core filtration components of the residential business.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為住宅用水處理的合理化程度反映了其全球影響力。在歐洲有著強大的影響力,在中國也有相當大的影響力。因此,我們要確保我們在長期內處於有利地位,確保我們處於高端市場,而不是處於商品市場,這反映了我們正在放棄的大量收入,我們真正試圖加強住宅業務的核心過濾組件。

  • That dynamic isn't as big in the rest of the businesses because we're more local for local or the dynamics change. So in the pump business, for instance, the motors are different in Europe than they are in the United States, so you don't have that global one-product-fits-everybody globally that you have in the water filtration side.

    在其他企業中,這種動態並不那麼大,因為我們更加在地化,或者動態發生了變化。以泵浦業務為例,歐洲的馬達與美國的馬達有所不同,因此,在水過濾領域,你不會像在水過濾領域那樣,在全球範圍內採用一種適合所有人的產品。

  • So this is generally specific to a water treatment business that we want to position better for the long term and we'll be through that, as Bob said, after Q3, and then we can get back to growth in Q4 and beyond.

    因此,這通常特定於水處理業務,我們希望在長期內更好地定位,正如鮑勃所說,我們將在第三季度之後完成這一目標,然後我們可以在第四季度及以後恢復成長。

  • I think what happened in Water Solutions, though, is we got caught with that rationalization while we thought we were going to recover in a stronger rate in commercial. And optically, from a revenue standpoint, you're seeing a little more challenged environment than really what we're experiencing internally.

    但我認為,在 Water Solutions 中發生的事情是,我們陷入了這種合理化,而我們原以為我們將以更強勁的速度在商業領域復甦。從收入角度來看,你看到的環境比我們內部經歷的更具挑戰性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Linzey], Mizuho.

    [林澤],瑞穗。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to come back to tariffs. I appreciate all the details. So you're dialing in the $60 million full year, $140 million previously. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces. Doesn't look like you're flowing through the full tailwind. I guess does the does the framework contemplate some potential softening developing in the second half and it's more of a hedge? Or are you actually marking to market what's a lower exit run rate?

    恭喜本季取得佳績。我想回到關稅問題上。我感謝所有的細節。因此,您全年的收入為 6000 萬美元,而之前為 1.4 億美元。顯然,有很多活動部件。看起來你並沒有順著順風飛行。我猜這個框架是否考慮到了下半年可能出現的疲軟趨勢,而且它更像是一種對沖?或者您實際上是在根據市場價格來標定較低的退出運行率?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. Just to go over the math, the full year expected this year is $75 million versus the $140 million. So if you think about that's a $65 million benefit. Then we talked about $50 million less price. So the net benefit is around $15 million. And I would say we flow in about $10 million of that to the full year guidance.

    是的。簡單算一下,今年全年預計營收為 7,500 萬美元,而去年為 1.4 億美元。所以如果你想的話,這是一個 6500 萬美元的收益。然後我們談到了低 5000 萬美元的價格。因此淨收益約為1500萬美元。我想說,我們將為全年指導投入約 1000 萬美元。

  • So again, staying cautious -- we talked about the fact that August 1, there's a potential $10 million headwind there. Not sure what exactly is going to happen on August 1, but we'll be able to work through our mitigating actions if those tariffs actually do take place.

    所以,再次強調,要保持謹慎——我們談到了 8 月 1 日可能出現 1000 萬美元逆風的事實。不確定 8 月 1 日究竟會發生什麼,但如果這些關稅確實發生,我們將能夠採取緩解措施。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Great. And then you noted some of the operational efficiencies in the factories, it looks like you're optimizing the footprint moving in that next wave. Has the tariff situation in any way, slowed or perhaps accelerated some of that decision-making as you're reconfiguring the supply chains? And any help on the phasing of those initiatives?

    偉大的。然後您注意到工廠的一些營運效率,看起來您正在優化下一波浪潮中的足跡。當你們重新配置供應鏈時,關稅狀況是否以某種方式減緩或加速了某些決策?對於這些措施的分階段實施,您能提供什麼協助嗎?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think it's -- if I picked one in the middle, I think it's paused it, right? I think if we could have more permanent clarity on where we should avoid and where we should go to, I think it would help the investment substantially.

    我認為 - 如果我在中間選擇一個,我認為它會暫停,對嗎?我認為,如果我們能夠更明確地知道我們應該避開哪裡、應該去哪裡,這將對投資有很大幫助。

  • Clearly, our strategy of being local for local on the factory footprint continues to make sense and where we have those avenues, we're doing it. But it takes us a while to move supply chains because of qualification of products, we have to test everything, and we have to make sure our quality levels are still high. So we're working through all that and giving ourselves some options. And then I think we can start to accelerate the long-term footprint strategy that we have once we have better clarity.

    顯然,我們在工廠佈局上實行在地化的策略仍然有意義,只要我們有這些途徑,我們就會這樣做。但由於產品資質問題,我們需要一段時間來轉移供應鏈,我們必須測試所有產品,並確保我們的品質水準仍然很高。所以我們正在努力解決所有這些問題並為自己提供一些選擇。然後我認為,一旦我們有了更清晰的認識,我們就可以開始加速我們的長期足跡策略。

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. Really pleased with the start to the year around transformation. We've driven roughly $44 million of savings in the first half. We've guided to $80 million for the full year. This is really following the $67 million of savings two years ago, $107 million last year. So really strong momentum, and it still is low to middle innings in terms of the transformation program.

    是的。我真的很高興看到全年轉型的開始。上半年我們節省了大約 4,400 萬美元。我們預計全年的營收將達到 8,000 萬美元。這實際上是在兩年前節省了 6700 萬美元,去年節省了 1.07 億美元之後。所以勢頭真的很強勁,但就轉型計劃而言,它仍然處於低到中局。

  • We're able to see some really nice balance between the sourcing savings and the efficiencies that we're bringing to our factories.

    我們能夠看到採購節省和工廠效率之間的真正平衡。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I would just add to that, and I want to remind everybody, we're still committing to the 26% in '26 of ROS. If we get volume ahead of the meager expectations we have we're going to get some tremendous leverage across the factories that's going to add to the ability to raise margins and add to those transformation savings because it's the one space we have not yet realized our full expectations from is through the factories and that leverage on volume.

    我還要補充一點,我想提醒大家,我們仍然致力於在 26 年實現 26% 的 ROS。如果我們的產量超出了我們微薄的預期,我們將在工廠中獲得巨大的槓桿作用,這將增強我們提高利潤的能力,並增加轉型節省,因為這是我們尚未實現全部預期的一個領域,即透過工廠和產量槓桿作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Jeff Hammond。

  • Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

    Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

  • I just want to go back to pool and be crystal clear here. So it doesn't seem like anything's really changed in your pool volume outlook, maybe news a little better and remodel upgrade a little worse? Is that fair? And then just as you talk to your channel partners, how would they characterize channel inventories?

    我只想回到游泳池並在這裡保持清醒。因此,您的泳池容量前景似乎並沒有什麼真正改變,也許新聞稍微好一點,而改造升級稍微差一點?這樣公平嗎?然後,當您與通路夥伴交談時,他們會如何描述通路庫存?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So I want to jump on your crystal clear. That would be our new hybrid filter that should be coming out next year, and thanks for that advertisement, Jeff. But no idea, I think the volume is if we had Plan A and Plan B, I think plan was for some modest volume upside as we headed through the year. I think we're more at a Plan B, which is modestly more challenging. But we're talking about 1 or 2 points.

    是的。所以我想跳到你的清澈的水晶上。那就是我們的新混合過濾器,應該會在明年推出,謝謝你的廣告,傑夫。但不知道,我認為如果我們有計劃 A 和計劃 B,那麼我認為計劃就是在我們度過這一年時實現一定程度的適度交易量上升。我認為我們更傾向於 B 計劃,該計劃的挑戰性略大一些。但我們討論的是 1 或 2 點。

  • And from our perspective, which is generally in line with expectations. I think channel inventory is where it always has been historically, and we're very good now at being able to monitor sell-through and make sure we're pacing the sell-through. And that's really how we're working through this. And I think that's just a lot of learnings from the COVID days.

    從我們的角度來看,這基本上符合預期。我認為通路庫存與歷史上一直處於同一水平,我們現在非常擅長監控銷售情況並確保我們能夠控制銷售速度。這就是我們真正解決這個問題的方法。我認為這是從新冠疫情時期學到的很多。

  • And so we feel good about our positioning of inventory, both from distributors and dealers, and we feel good about our ability to have visibility on what sell-through should be I think weather was a little bit of impact in Q2. It's hard to judge. So we'll see how that comes through the Q3 and Q4 shipments.

    因此,我們對分銷商和經銷商的庫存定位感到滿意,並且我們對了解銷售情況的能力感到滿意,我認為天氣對第二季度產生了一點影響。這很難判斷。因此,我們將觀察第三季和第四季的出貨情況。

  • Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

    Jeffrey Hammond - Analyst

  • And then just on the the tariff dynamic, I mean, moving pieces, you mentioned Europe and copper. Do you assume like you're going to let this play out and then you'll just anything else you do on price would just go into next year's price increase?

    然後就關稅動態而言,我的意思是,移動的部分,你提到了歐洲和銅。您是否認為您會讓這種情況發生,然後您在價格方面所做的任何其他事情都會影響到明年的價格上漲?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I think we'd want to react accordingly when we've got more clarity. And again, that slide that we've been publishing now gives you where the biggest risks would be. I mean we don't have a settled China tariff yet. I mean we have a verbal but we'd like to see some clarity on that. That would obviously be the bigger one.

    不,我認為當我們更加清楚情況後,我們會做出相應的反應。再說一次,我們現在發布的幻燈片告訴了你最大的風險在哪裡。我的意思是我們還沒有確定中國關稅。我的意思是,我們已經口頭商定了,但我們希望看到更明確的答案。這顯然是一個更大的問題。

  • Copper is going to affect the entire industry in every industry. So we'll see what we do there. But generally, we're looking at this as inflation on commodities because as -- we put the tariffs in place, even US manufacturers tend to go up to the line of where those tariffs are. So we're going to reflect what happens in August 1. We'll work with our dealers and our in our channels, and we'll do our best to recover that in year for the impact that we'll see happen, Jeff.

    銅將影響每個產業的整個產業。因此我們將看看我們在那裡做什麼。但總的來說,我們將其視為大宗商品的通貨膨脹,因為隨著我們實施關稅,即使是美國製造商也傾向於將價格提高到關稅線以下。因此,我們將回顧 8 月 1 日發生的事情。我們將與我們的經銷商和通路合作,並盡最大努力在一年內恢復我們將看到的影響,傑夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • I just want to circle back on the divestiture of the commercial services. And John, you gave a really crisp answer to Brian's question, just on the rationale. I mean, as soon as I heard fixed contract in this environment, you could see why you wanted to exit. So that's clear.

    我只是想重新討論一下商業服務的剝離問題。約翰,你對布萊恩的問題給了非常清晰的回答,僅從基本原理上來說。我的意思是,當我聽到這種環境下的固定合約時,你就會明白為什麼你想退出。這很清楚。

  • But what wasn't clear was -- are you going to lose any of that pull-through on the aftermarket because you no longer have a captive service, but -- so is that factored in, in terms of not selling as many replacements, cartridges, et cetera?

    但不清楚的是——由於您不再提供專屬服務,您是否會失去售後市場的任何拉動,但是——那麼,這是否考慮到了不會銷售那麼多替換品、墨盒等?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I don't believe so, Deane, I think we've built really good relationships primarily through the distribution channels and the synergies, the Manitowoc and Everpure, and as a reminder, we go out with Everpure as its own brand and Manitowoc with its own brand. And so we've been able to really position our filtration is the filtration of choice. And if anything, that position has gotten stronger over the last three years, four years. Competitive pressures have weakened some.

    不,我不這麼認為,迪恩,我認為我們主要透過分銷管道和協同效應建立了良好的關係,馬尼托瓦克和 Everpure,提醒一下,我們推出 Everpure 作為其自有品牌,馬尼托瓦克也推出其自有品牌。因此,我們能夠真正定位我們的過濾是首選的過濾。而且,如果有什麼改變的話,那就是在過去的三、四年裡,這個地位變得更強大了。競爭壓力已經削弱了一些。

  • I'm not going to mention who those companies are, but there are dynamics where we've been better positioned to solve in a more standard and consistent way our customers' challenges, and we feel better about those relationships today than we did even when we bought KBI. So I think it's the right timing, and we'll continue to work with the partner who bought KBI to make sure that they get the filtration offering, and I think we can continue to expand that channel.

    我不會提及這些公司是誰,但我們已經處於更有利的位置,能夠以更標準、更一致的方式解決客戶的挑戰,而且與收購 KBI 時相比,我們對這些關係的感覺更好。所以我認為現在是正確的時機,我們將繼續與收購 KBI 的合作夥伴合作,以確保他們獲得過濾產品,我認為我們可以繼續擴展該管道。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • Great. And then are there other divestitures being contemplated in the near term? And then a quick 1 for Bob. This is your outstanding quarter in free cash flow conversion. I mean it's just -- it's nearly 260% conversion, how did it play out according to your expectations, working capital? Maybe there was a little bit less CapEx, but just some observations there, please.

    偉大的。那麼近期是否還有其他資產剝離的考量?然後鮑伯快速得 1 分。這是你們在自由現金流轉換方面表現出色的一個季度。我的意思是——它的轉換率接近 260%,按照您的預期,營運資金表現如何?也許資本支出會少一點,但這只是一些觀察而已。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So let me answer the first one, and then I'll let Bob take the victory lap on cash because we certainly are proud of that number. I would say that when we look at divestitures, we're looking at really product line exits. So when we look at 80/20 or we do our product line exits, we look at it as -- is there -- is it inside of a shared factory or not? Has it got its own dedicated infrastructure? What would the ERP transition look like? What would digital migration look like? And then generally, what's the cost benefit of that?

    是的。所以讓我來回答第一個問題,然後我會讓鮑伯在現金方面取得勝利,因為我們確實為這個數字感到自豪。我想說的是,當我們考慮資產剝離時,我們真正考慮的是產品線的退出。因此,當我們考慮 80/20 或我們的產品線退出時,我們會考慮它——它是否位於共享工廠內?它有自己的專用基礎設施嗎?ERP 轉型將會是什麼樣的呢?數位遷移將會是什麼樣的呢?那麼一般來說,這樣做的成本效益是什麼?

  • And so if some asset we have is better off in somebody's hands or it's difficult to run Deane, we'll consider it. Short answer to your question is I have nothing really else pending. And I think we have the ability to run most of our product lines successfully inside of our portfolio. So I wouldn't expect divestitures to be a big part of the future.

    因此,如果我們的某些資產在別人手中會更好,或經營 Deane 會很困難,我們就會考慮。對你的問題的簡短回答是,我真的沒有其他未完成的事情。我認為我們有能力在我們的產品組合內成功運行大多數產品線。因此,我並不認為資產剝離會成為未來的重要組成部分。

  • Bob, do you want to talk about cash flow?

    鮑勃,你想談談現金流嗎?

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. I would say on cash flow, it certainly helps with having a record quarter for sales and income. That's the starting point for us. And then we've been very focused over the last couple of years on improving DSO and days inventory on hand. So really proud of the team for the focus on working capital, which has, again, given us a very a strong number in what is typically our strongest free cash flow quarter of the year.

    是的。我想說,就現金流而言,它肯定有助於創下季度銷售額和收入的紀錄。這就是我們的起點。過去幾年我們一直致力於改善 DSO 和庫存天數。我真的為團隊對營運資本的關注感到自豪,這再次為我們帶來了非常強勁的業績,這通常是我們一年中最強勁的自由現金流季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Krill, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的安德魯·克里爾。

  • Andrew Krill - Research Analyst

    Andrew Krill - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask on the topic of tariffs again? Just any observations of rebuying like to the extent you can measure that. It didn't seem obvious, but I wanted to check. And I guess, therefore, if there could be any form of an air pocket in the third quarter? Any color there would be helpful.

    我只是想再詢問有關關稅的問題?只要對重新購買進行任何觀察,就可以衡量這一點。這似乎並不明顯,但我想檢查一下。因此,我猜第三季是否會出現任何形式的氣泡?任何顏色都會有幫助。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think we saw definitely in Q1, mitigating strategies that would include bringing in what you could. And we were very transparent on the benefit that we had created regarding that. I think Q2, both in the cash flow of us and probably as an industry is indicative of the fact that a lot of us collected on what we did in Q1 and Q2.

    是的。我認為我們在第一季確實看到了緩解策略,其中包括盡你所能。我們對於由此產生的利益非常透明。我認為,第二季度,無論是我們的現金流,還是整個行業的現金流,都表明我們許多人在第一季度和第二季度的基礎上取得了進展。

  • And I think the pre-buying has slowed because I think the normalization of the tariffs are better today than they were when we were putting those strategies in place. So I think we've been monitoring that. I don't think we feel that there's a lot of the prebuy that happened in Q2 relative to Q3. What we saw was that happening in Q2 relative to Q1. So buying in Q1 to Q2, that's where we saw it and that's where we mitigated it.

    我認為預購速度已經放緩,因為我認為今天的關稅正常化比我們實施這些策略時要好。所以我認為我們一直在監視這一點。我認為,與第三季相比,第二季的預購並不多。我們看到的是,相對於第一季而言,第二季出現了這種情況。因此,在第一季到第二季的購買中,我們看到了這種情況,並減輕了這種情況。

  • I hope I didn't confuse you, but I don't think, but that was my point.

    我希望我沒有讓你感到困惑,但我不這麼認為,但這就是我的觀點。

  • Andrew Krill - Research Analyst

    Andrew Krill - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Makes sense. That's very helpful. And then for -- going back to the transformation savings, $44 million in the first half so about $36 million for the rest of the year. So should we be assuming that's pretty evenly split between the third and fourth quarter? And then any difference by segments on which can have more or less of a benefit? Thanks.

    好的。有道理。這非常有幫助。然後——回到轉型節省的問題,上半年節省了 4,400 萬美元,今年剩餘時間節省了約 3,600 萬美元。那麼我們是否應該假設第三季和第四季的比例相當均勻?那麼,各個細分市場是否存在差異,可以帶來更多或更少的益處呢?謝謝。

  • Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

    Robert Fishman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer

  • I would model as roughly even between Q3 and Q4. And then I look to the segments that have the biggest opportunity from a complexity reduction perspective. So again, Flow and water solutions, both hard at work in terms of driving those transformation savings.

    我認為 Q3 和 Q4 之間的模型大致相同。然後,我從降低複雜性的角度尋找具有最大機會的細分市場。因此,Flow 和水解決方案都在努力推動這些轉型節省。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And the only thing I will add to that is I just want to remind everybody, it's net of investments, too. And despite the fact that we're not seeing that rebound yet, we are putting some heavy technology investments in, in the form of R&D, innovation and digital and analytics. And you're going to see those investments in pool and Water Solutions primarily -- but I just want to remind you that transformation is net of incremental sales, marketing and technology investments.

    是的。我唯一要補充的是,我只想提醒大家,這也是投資淨額。儘管我們還沒有看到反彈,但我們在研發、創新、數位和分析方面投入了大量技術投資。您將主要看到對游泳池和水解決方案的投資——但我只想提醒您,轉型是增量銷售、行銷和技術投資的淨值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • So I just wanted to double click on 3Q. I mean you pointed to some pretty important inflections with, I think, it's Flow up mid-single digits and the commercial Water Solutions up low to mid-singles. Just wondering what gives you confidence in that outlook? Obviously, pretty different outcomes to what we saw in Q2. So is there anything in the order book or backlog that's informing that confidence?

    所以我只想雙擊 3Q。我的意思是,您指出了一些非常重要的變化,我認為,Flow 上升到中等個位數,而商業水解決方案上升到低到中等個位數。只是想知道是什麼讓您對這種觀點充滿信心?顯然,這與我們在第二季度看到的結果截然不同。那麼訂單或積壓訂單中是否有任何內容可以增強這種信心?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The way we look at it is sequentially more than we look at it year-over-year and then obviously, year-over-year as a result of what happened last year versus what's happening this year. So when you look at sequential order and shipment rates, that's what drives the confidence in what our outlook for Q3 is.

    我們看待這個問題的方式更多的是按順序進行,而不是按年進行,顯然,我們會根據去年發生的事情與今年發生的事情進行比較。因此,當您查看連續訂單和出貨率時,這就是我們對第三季前景的信心的驅動力。

  • And the comparables in every business on a year-over-year basis are just different. And that's why I think it looks stronger than it really is if you looked at it from a sequential perspective. Does that make sense? I don't want to confuse --

    而且,每個企業的同比情況都是不同的。這就是為什麼我認為如果從順序的角度來看,它看起來比實際情況更強大。這樣有道理嗎?我不想混淆--

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Yeah, it's more comps to anything else, I get that. And then another crack at the pool pricing. So John, I think you're appropriately highlighting the fact there's been a lot of prices gone into this end market. And obviously, underlying conditions remain quite challenging there.

    是的,它比其他任何東西都更具可比性,我明白這一點。然後再次對游泳池定價進行破解。所以約翰,我認為你恰當地強調了這個事實:很多價格已經進入了這個終端市場。顯然,那裡的基本條件仍然相當嚴峻。

  • Do you think there's any threat to the pricing here we tend not to see pricing rollbacks, but do you think that promotional activity could pick up or discounting? And do you think that next year, will be a normal view of pricing and normally see 2% to 3% pricing? Do you think next year could look like that? Or do you think the sheer volume of price kind of prevents that happening?

    您認為這裡的定價是否有任何威脅?我們往往不會看到價格回落,但您認為促銷活動可能會增加或折扣嗎?您是否認為明年的定價會是正常的,通常會看到 2% 到 3% 的定價?您認為明年的情況會是這樣嗎?或者您認為價格的絕對數量會阻止這種情況的發生?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I would say that -- I would start with, I hope. So let's I know hope is not a strategy, but let's say we hope we could get to normal. And I think any time we're going to see growth in the industry and generally growth in the channel, I think those normal dynamics tend to play out.

    是的。我想說的是──我希望以此作為開始。所以我知道希望不是策略,但我們希望我們能夠恢復正常。我認為,任何時候我們都會看到產業的成長和通路的普遍成長,我認為這些正常的動態就會發揮作用。

  • I think it would be fair to say that when you take a look at the profit pool being what is realized by the equipment manufacturers, what is realized by distribution and then what is being realized by the end dealer. I think there's been a shift where the dealers generally benefiting right now. And I say that because they're getting both service labor, service revenue and pricing margin on product, the manufacturer is able to push through to distribution, the tariff increases.

    我認為,公平地說,當你看一下利潤池時,你會發現它包括設備製造商實現的利潤、經銷商實現的利潤以及最終經銷商實現的利潤。我認為現在已經發生了轉變,經銷商普遍受益。我之所以這麼說,是因為他們同時獲得了服務勞動力、服務收入和產品定價利潤,所以製造商能夠推動分銷,從而提高關稅。

  • And I would expect that distribution is being caught slightly in the middle as we go forward. That's not a dynamic that's healthy, and that's a dynamic that needs to be considered as we think through how do we get those profit pools more in balance for the longer term.

    而且我預計,隨著我們不斷前進,分佈將會稍微處於中間位置。這不是一個健康的動態,當我們思考如何從長遠來看使這些利潤池更加平衡時,需要考慮這個動態。

  • So I think it's something we're monitoring. I don't think there's warning signs yet, but it's something we have to make sure that those dynamics come out to play. The way we do it is adjusting rebates to dealers on products that we need them to sell versus just general revenue pools and making sure that we're moving the content into the channel that's better for all.

    所以我認為這是我們正在監控的事情。我認為目前還沒有出現警告訊號,但我們必須確保這些動態能夠發揮作用。我們的做法是調整經銷商對我們需要他們銷售的產品的回扣,而不僅僅是一般的收入池,並確保我們將內容轉移到對所有人都更有利的管道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Giordano, TD Cowen.

    喬·喬達諾(Joe Giordano),TD Cowen。

  • Joe Giordano - Analyst

    Joe Giordano - Analyst

  • Just curious, John, you mentioned like pricing pull up 15% in trailing 12 months. Just curious like -- is that creating an opportunity for foreign product to come in and enter the market at a lower price point? We've heard some stuff about that. Just curious if you're seeing it at all.

    只是好奇,約翰,你提到過去 12 個月價格上漲了 15%。只是好奇——這是否為外國產品以較低的價格進入市場創造了機會?我們聽說過一些有關此事的事情。只是好奇你是否看到了它。

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I don't think we're seeing it yet. I do hear about it, and I do think that, that's something we've got to monitor. I mean, again, probably more in the low end of the market on dumber products. I mean I think we believe that we need to get every pool automated. And once you're automated into the manufacturer's IoT system, and the app, you're going to generally buy the higher-value products, along with the pad.

    是的,我認為我們還沒有看到它。我確實聽說過這件事,而且我確實認為這是我們必須監控的事情。我的意思是,可能更多的是針對低階市場的低階產品。我的意思是,我認為我們相信我們需要讓每個池子自動化。一旦您自動進入製造商的物聯網系統和應用程序,您通常會購買更高價值的產品以及平板電腦。

  • I think you could see service providers in this type of environment, switching out certain pad components for lower-priced product. It's not good for the industry. It's not good for safety. It's not good at the overall value contribution, but you could see it happening if we don't see volume and we don't see demand continue.

    我認為你會看到服務提供者在這種環境下將某些墊片組件替換為價格較低的產品。這對產業來說並不好。這對於安全來說不利。這對整體價值貢獻來說並不好,但如果我們看不到銷售量,也看不到需求持續,你就會看到這種情況發生。

  • I think it will be noise in the early stages, but I think we got to keep an eye on it.

    我認為在早期階段這會產生噪音,但我認為我們必須密切注意它。

  • Joe Giordano - Analyst

    Joe Giordano - Analyst

  • Yeah. Fair enough. And then just on the KBI divestment, correct me if I'm wrong, I thought there was like that -- owning that business was like a part of the thesis to buying Manitowoc Ice, right, like combining all this stuff? And can you talk us through -- I mean, I understand the reasons and how the dynamic has shifted at KBI, but like does it change the outlook at all for how to make Manitowoc Ice successful within Pentair?

    是的。很公平。然後就 KBI 撤資而言,如果我錯了請糾正我,我認為是這樣的——擁有那項業務就像是購買 Manitowoc Ice 論點的一部分,對吧,就像把所有這些東西結合起來一樣?您能否向我們詳細講解一下——我的意思是,我了解原因以及 KBI 內部的動態如何發生變化,但它是否會改變如何讓 Manitowoc Ice 在 Pentair 內部取得成功的前景?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Let me just readdress the strategy. When we bought KBI, we didn't have Manitowoc. And the theory was that we needed to have a service provider to make sure that our high-value and very valuable to the industry. Everpure cartridges are not being switched out for lower cost competitive product. That's what our theory was, and that's what we did. So it was really more of a defensive strategy.

    是的。讓我重新討論一下這個策略。當我們收購 KBI 時,我們還沒有馬尼托瓦克。理論上,我們需要一個服務提供者來確保我們的產品對產業具有高價值。Everpure 墨盒不會被替換為成本更低的競爭產品。這就是我們的理論,我們也確實這麼做了。所以這其實更像是一種防禦策略。

  • We did believe that we could also grow the penetration and really think about the franchise saying this is our spec that we want and then make sure that the franchisees are honoring that spec and putting those units in place.

    我們確實相信,我們也可以擴大滲透率,並認真考慮特許經營權,說這是我們想要的規格,然後確保特許經營商遵守該規格並將這些單位落實到位。

  • When you fast forward and you bring Manitowoc along -- now between Manitowoc and Everpure going through same distribution, we're starting to scale up the availability of both the Manitowoc brand and the Everpure brand, and we become much more relevant in the industry so that we're less dependent on what the individual service provider is doing.

    當我們快速前進並將馬尼托瓦克 (Manitowoc) 帶入其中時——現在馬尼托瓦克 (Manitowoc) 和 Everpure 之間採用相同的分銷方式,我們開始擴大馬尼托瓦克 (Manitowoc) 品牌和 Everpure 品牌的可用性,並且我們在行業中變得更加重要,因此我們不再依賴單一服務提供者所做的事情。

  • That being said, we would still have it today if all those dynamics I mentioned did not come to fruition. And as you look forward to any business, it's got to be -- is the incremental investment worth the work, and we just determined it wasn't at this stage, and we needed to put it in somebody else's hands and continue to work with that new partner to sell our cartridges to.

    話雖如此,如果我提到的所有這些動力都沒有實現,我們今天仍然會有這種情況。當你期待任何業務時,它必須是——增量投資是否值得付出努力,我們只是確定它在這個階段是不值得的,我們需要把它交給其他人,並繼續與新的合作夥伴合作,向他們銷售我們的墨盒。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Buscaglia, BNP Paribas.

    安德魯·巴斯卡利亞,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Andrew Buscaglia - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Buscaglia - Equity Analyst

  • I just wanted to check on -- your cash flow has been strong lately and preference towards using that for repo versus M&A. I mean, what are the discussions like on the on the deal side, given the tariff uncertainty now that we've got a full quarter underneath us?

    我只是想檢查一下——你們最近的現金流一直很強勁,並且傾向於將其用於回購而不是併購。我的意思是,考慮到我們已經度過了一個完整的季度,關稅方面存在不確定性,交易方面的討論情況如何?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think we're lucky in the sense that we're generating a lot of cash, and we really paid down the debt, and I'm proud of the team for doing that. And we're still not optimized on cash flow, and we have an opportunity to recover a lot of the pre-COVID views.

    是的,我認為我們很幸運,因為我們產生了很多現金,而且我們確實償還了債務,我為團隊這樣做感到自豪。我們的現金流仍未優化,我們有機會恢復許多疫情之前的觀點。

  • I think a little bit of buyback, a little bit of dividend, an ongoing basis is the right thing to do, and I don't think that precludes us from doing bolt-on M&A. We are seeing more bolt-on M&A into the pipeline. I think we've got to be -- continue to be disciplined.

    我認為少量的回購、少量的股利和持續的股利是正確的做法,而且我認為這並不妨礙我們進行附加的併購。我們看到越來越多的附加併購正在醞釀中。我認為我們必須-繼續保持紀律。

  • We've got to continue to make sure that the right strategic deals, and we got to make sure they have the right value returns for shareowners. But I do think the pipeline is starting to open up, and we might see some in the future here.

    我們必須繼續確保正確的策略交易,並且必須確保它們為股東帶來正確的價值回報。但我確實認為管道正在開始開放,我們將來可能會在這裡看到一些。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Okay. Maybe just one last one on the -- your previous distributor comments. Certainly, at some point, they're going to feel the pinch as well with pricing. So I'm wondering, first off, price realization sounds like came in around where you expected. And then I guess going forward, how does that dynamic work when we look out to 2026 with distributors' ability to keep taking price?

    好的。也許最後還有關於您之前的經銷商的評論。當然,在某個時候,他們也會感受到定價的壓力。所以我想知道,首先,價格實現聽起來是否符合您的預期。那麼我想,展望未來,當我們展望 2026 年時,經銷商是否還能繼續保持價格優勢,而這種動態將如何發揮作用?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, as part of 80/20, we have done a lot of customer simplification who we ship to. So we ship primarily to our top distributors now and only to our top distributors. It really is about making sure we're aligning the dealer incentives to move the product through that's beneficial to us and the channel and the end customer, right?

    嗯,作為 80/20 的一部分,我們對發貨給哪些客戶做了很多簡化。因此,我們現在主要向我們的頂級分銷商發貨,而且只向我們的頂級分銷商發貨。這實際上是為了確保我們調整經銷商的激勵措施,以推動產品銷售,這對我們、通路和最終客戶都有利,對嗎?

  • So what you see sometimes you get a mix and they might go buy the spare parts and maybe the spare parts weren't priced appropriately and they can put a lot of labor on top of it. So I think it's our responsibility to make sure that we're working with the channel to continue to grow content on the pad and then we go out and try to get our fair share of that content.

    所以,有時你會看到零件混在一起,他們可能會去購買備件,也許備件的定價不合理,而且他們會投入大量的勞動力。因此,我認為我們的責任是確保我們與頻道合作,繼續在 Pad 上增加內容,然後我們再嘗試獲得公平的份額。

  • And that's what we'll continue to do as we head into '26. And as we look at those incentive plans that we put into place for the dealers.

    邁入 2026 年,我們將繼續這樣做。當我們查看為經銷商制定的激勵計劃時。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

    薩裡‧博羅迪茨基 (Saree Boroditsky),傑弗里斯 (Jefferies)。

  • Saree Boroditsky - Equity Analyst

    Saree Boroditsky - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just another one on pool. I think you mentioned potential for sluggish volumes in 2026. But maybe just talk about how you're thinking about replacement demand from the bulk of equipment that was put in during the COVID year. And when does that start to show up in volume?

    也許只是泳池裡的另一個人。我認為您提到了 2026 年交易量可能出現疲軟。但也許只是談談您如何看待在 COVID 年度投入的大部分設備的更換需求。那麼什麼時候開始在音量上體現呢?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So real quickly, I don't -- I want to make sure I'm clear. I didn't say sluggish. I'm saying we haven't yet seen significant volume recovery -- we were planning on it. I don't know if it's going to be here in the back half of the year. I don't know where it sits for 2026. So I just want to make sure we're there.

    是的。所以很快,我不想——我想確保我說清楚了。我沒說遲鈍。我的意思是,我們還沒有看到銷量明顯回升——而這正是我們計劃好的。我不知道它是否會在今年下半年到來。我不知道 2026 年它會位於何處。所以我只是想確保我們在那裡。

  • And then I just think that overall, there is still a lot of opportunity for new products and for training dealers, for training customers and making sure that we get to every pool being automated and making sure that people understand the value proposition that. And I think there's a ton of opportunity to still grow within the current environment.

    然後我認為總的來說,在新產品、培訓經銷商、培訓客戶以及確保我們進入每個池子實現自動化以及確保人們理解價值主張方面仍然有很多機會。我認為在當前環境下仍有大量成長機會。

  • Saree Boroditsky - Equity Analyst

    Saree Boroditsky - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for clarification. And then maybe just one on price. You talked about pool demand being impacted by all the price increases. Just how you're thinking about pricing over the next several years? Does pricing slow down at some point? Is it just discounts? Or can you introduce more entry-level equipment just to make pools more affordable to more people? Or is that just not part of the equation?

    好的。謝謝澄清。然後也許只有一個關於價格的問題。您談到游泳池需求受到所有價格上漲的影響。您如何考慮未來幾年的定價?定價是否會在某個時候放緩?只是折扣嗎?或者您可以推出更多入門級設備,以便讓更多人負擔得起游泳池的費用?或者這根本不是方程式的一部分?

  • John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Stauch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (multiple speakers) I think our value proposition is always be working the higher-end pools and to have the technological advancements that the industry wants and needs and make sure we're driving value content. I do think though that price normalization, getting back to that 1% to 2% per year, reflecting general inflation is the hope of every industry, so that you can work within the context of driving productivity plans and making sure that you're providing that incremental value to the channel.

    (多位發言者)我認為我們的價值主張始終是致力於高端泳池,並擁有業界想要和需要的技術進步,並確保我們推動價值內容。我確實認為,價格正常化,回到每年 1% 到 2% 的水平,反映普遍的通貨膨脹,是每個行業的希望,這樣你就可以在推動生產力計劃的背景下工作,並確保你為渠道提供增量價值。

  • That's something we're working on. I'm sure every industry is working on it. There's just a lot of volatility right now. And what we have to do is protect our shareholder base and make sure that we're managing our channels as the best possible to always be on the positive side of that, but it's going to be everybody if that inflation comes down and the pricing could come down.

    這是我們正在努力的事情。我相信每個行業都在努力實現這一目標。目前波動性很大。我們要做的就是保護我們的股東基礎,並確保我們盡可能地管理我們的管道,始終保持積極的一面,但如果通貨膨脹下降,價格下降,那麼每個人都會受益。

  • Okay. I want to thank everybody for joining the call today. In closing, I just want to reiterate some key themes on slide 19. We delivered our 13th consecutive quarter of margin expansion. We drove double-digit adjusted earnings growth and Pool grid's top line 9% as a result of solid execution and transformation.

    好的。我要感謝大家今天參加電話會議。最後,我只想重申投影片 19 上的一些關鍵主題。我們連續第 13 個季度實現利潤率成長。由於穩健的執行和轉型,我們推動了兩位數的調整後收益成長和 Pool grid 營收成長 9%。

  • We increased our 2025 sales and adjusted EPS outlook despite tariff impacts, and we remain confident in our long-term strategy. We expect a long runway of productivity savings driven by transformation and the benefits of 80/20. And our focused water strategy and strong execution continue to build a solid foundation with optimal operational efficiency to drive long-term growth, profitability and shareholder value.

    儘管受到關稅影響,我們仍提高了 2025 年的銷售額並調整了每股收益預期,並且我們對我們的長期策略仍然充滿信心。我們預計,轉型和 80/20 優勢將帶來長期的生產力節約。我們專注的水資源策略和強大的執行力繼續以最佳的營運效率奠定堅實的基礎,推動長期成長、獲利能力和股東價值。

  • Lastly, we believe we are well positioned to effectively manage the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.

    最後,我們相信我們有能力有效管理全球宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境。謝謝大家,祝大家有個愉快的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議和演講到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。