The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Q1 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 PNC 金融服務集團 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本次會議將被錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to Bryan Gill, Executive VP and Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Bryan. You may begin.

現在我將把會議交給執行副總裁兼投資人關係主管 Bryan Gill。謝謝你，Bryan。你可以開始了。

Well, good morning. Welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan Gill, the Director of Investor Relations for PNC, and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

各位早安。歡迎參加今天 PNC 金融服務集團的電話會議。我是 PNC 投資人關係主管 Bryan Gill；參與本次電話會議的還有 PNC 董事長兼執行長 Bill Demchak，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Rob Reilly。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information, as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, are included in today's earnings release materials, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of April 15, 2026, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

今天的簡報包含前瞻性資訊。關於此等資訊的警示性聲明，以及非 GAAP 指標的調節表，已載於今日的財報新聞稿資料、我們向 SEC 提交的文件及其他投資人資料中。上述資料皆可於我們公司網站 pnc.com 的「投資人關係」專區取得。這些聲明僅截至 2026 年 4 月 15 日為準，PNC 不承擔更新之義務。

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

現在，我想把電話交給 Bill。

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Bryan，各位早安。

As you've seen, we're off to a really strong start this year. We achieved a great deal this quarter, and we continue to build upon the strength of our franchise. As you know, we completed the acquisition of FirstBank early in the quarter, and we're well on our way to a mid-June conversion.

如各位所見，我們今年開局非常強勁。本季我們達成了許多成果，並持續在我們特許經營的優勢基礎上再接再厲。如各位所知，我們在本季初完成了對 FirstBank 的收購，並正順利推進於 6 月中旬完成系統轉換。

Our financial performance was solid. Organic loan growth hit a three-year high. Net interest margin expanded meaningfully, and we had 13% year-over-year fee income growth. Our credit quality remained strong, and we returned significant capital to shareholders. Importantly, beyond the financial results, we continue to see strong momentum across our businesses. With notable increased client activities, we continue to make meaningful investments in our technology and our branch network.

我們的財務表現穩健。有機貸款成長創下三年新高。淨利差顯著擴大，手續費收入年增 13%。我們的資產品質維持強勁，並向股東返還了可觀的資本。更重要的是，除了財務結果之外，我們持續看到各項業務的強勁動能。在客戶活動明顯增加的情況下，我們持續對科技與分行網路進行具實質意義的投資。

While we recognize that there are many market concerns out there, from energy prices to AI to private credit, we are not seeing anything that suggests these issues are broadly impacting our customers or our credit quality in the near term. Specifically, in regard to the increased attention on banks' exposure to non-depository financial institutions, Rob's going to walk through some of the details as it relates to our exposure, but the sound bite you ought to walk away with here is that we don't see any lost content in this book and certainly don't see any exposure to a systemic event, which by the way, we don't expect, but were there to be one, a systemic event in private credit.

儘管我們理解市場上存在許多疑慮，從能源價格、AI 到私募信貸，但我們目前未看到任何跡象顯示這些議題在短期內正廣泛影響我們的客戶或資產品質。特別是針對外界對銀行曝險於非存款類金融機構的關注升高，Rob 會就我們的曝險細節進一步說明；但你應該帶走的重點是：我們不認為這本帳上有任何內容流失，當然也看不到對系統性事件的曝險；順帶一提，我們並不預期會發生，但即便私募信貸出現系統性事件也是如此。

I can't speak to what other banks have in this category as the definition seems to capture random things, but we are very outsized in our corporate receivables financing relative to others, which is a low-spread business with negligible risk. Importantly, the bulk of our loans actually have nothing to do with private credit despite the regulatory category in which they reside.

我無法評論其他銀行在此類別中的情況，因為其定義似乎涵蓋了一些零散項目；但相較於同業，我們在企業應收帳款融資方面的比重明顯更高，而這是一項利差較低、風險可忽略的業務。重要的是，儘管在監理分類上歸於同一類別，我們的大部分貸款實際上與私募信貸無關。

Overall, our focus remains on disciplined execution of our strategy, which is clearly reflected in our results this quarter. Looking ahead, we are entering into the second quarter with a lot of momentum, and we continue to be excited about the opportunities in front of us. Finally, as always, I want to thank our employees for everything they do for our company and our customers.

整體而言，我們仍專注於以紀律執行我們的策略，而這在本季的成果中已清楚反映。展望未來，我們帶著強勁動能進入第二季，並持續對眼前的機會感到振奮。最後，一如既往，我要感謝我們的員工為公司與客戶所做的一切。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to take you through the numbers. Rob?

接下來，我把時間交給 Rob，請他帶各位看一下數字。Rob？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Bill，各位早安。

Our balance sheet is on slide 4 and is presented on an average basis. As Bill just mentioned, during the first quarter, we successfully completed our acquisition of FirstBank, and as a result, our overall balance sheet growth includes the impact of the acquisition, which represented $15 billion in loans and $22 billion in deposits.

我們的資產負債表在第 4 頁，並以平均餘額基礎呈現。如 Bill 剛才提到的，我們在第一季成功完成對 FirstBank 的收購；因此，我們整體資產負債表的成長包含此次收購的影響，該收購帶來 150 億美元貸款與 220 億美元存款。

For the linked quarter, loans of $351 billion grew by $23 billion, or 7%. Investment securities of $145 billion increased $2 billion, or 2%. Deposit balances were up $19 billion, or 4%, and averaged $458 billion. And borrowings increased by $3 billion, or 4%, to $63 billion. Our tangible book value was $109.42 per common share, down 3% linked quarter due to the acquisition, but up 9% compared with the same period a year ago.

就連結季度而言，3510 億美元的貸款增加 230 億美元，或 7%。1450 億美元的投資證券增加 20 億美元，或 2%。存款餘額增加 190 億美元，或 4%，平均為 4580 億美元。借款增加 30 億美元，或 4%，至 630 億美元。每股普通股有形帳面價值為 109.42 美元，因收購因素較前一季下降 3%，但較去年同期上升 9%。

We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility. During the quarter, we returned $1.4 billion of capital to shareholders. Common dividends and share repurchases were approximately $700 million each, and we continue to expect quarterly repurchases to be in the range of $600 million to $700 million going forward.

我們持續保持良好的資本彈性。本季我們向股東返還 14 億美元資本。普通股股利與庫藏股回購各約 7 億美元；我們仍預期未來每季回購金額將落在 6 億至 7 億美元區間。

We remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 10.1%, down 50 basis points from year-end 2025. The decline was primarily driven by the FirstBank acquisition, accounting for roughly 40 basis points, with the remainder attributable to strong loan growth.

我們仍維持充足資本，估計普通股權益第一類資本（CET1）比率為 10.1%，較 2025 年底下降 50 個基點。下降主要由 FirstBank 收購所致，約占 40 個基點，其餘則歸因於強勁的貸款成長。

Regarding the recent Basel III proposal, we expect the changes to be a net positive for our CET1 ratio relative to the current framework. Our initial assessment reflects a reduction of approximately 10% of our RWAs, or $45 billion to $50 billion. The reduction amount is the same under both the revised standardized and the expanded methodologies, in line with our previous expectations.

關於近期的巴塞爾協定三（Basel III）提案，我們預期相較於現行架構，這些變更對我們的 CET1 比率將是淨正面影響。我們的初步評估顯示，我們的風險加權資產（RWA）將減少約 10%，約為 450 億至 500 億美元。在修訂後的標準法與擴充方法下，減少幅度相同，符合我們先前的預期。

Slide 5 shows our loans in more detail. Loan balances averaged $351 billion in the first quarter, an increase of $23 billion or 7% linked quarter. The growth reflected both higher commercial and consumer balances. Compared to the same period a year ago, average loans increased $34 billion, or 11%, and the total average loan yield of 5.5% decreased 10 basis points linked quarter.

第 5 頁更詳細呈現我們的貸款。第一季貸款平均餘額為 3510 億美元，較前一季增加 230 億美元或 7%。成長反映商業與消費者餘額皆上升。與去年同期相比，平均貸款增加 340 億美元或 11%；總平均貸款收益率為 5.5%，較前一季下降 10 個基點。

On a spot basis, loans increased $29 billion, or 9%, from year-end, including $15 billion from the FirstBank acquisition and $14 billion of growth in legacy PNC loans.

以期末（spot）基礎計算，貸款較年末增加 290 億美元或 9%，其中包含 FirstBank 收購帶來的 150 億美元，以及 PNC 既有貸款成長 140 億美元。

Specific to our legacy business, C&I loans increased $15 billion, driven by broad-based growth across businesses, reflecting strong new production and higher utilization rates. CRE balances reached an inflection point and increased approximately $100 million, and we expect moderate growth through the remainder of the year. And consumer loans declined $1 billion due to lower residential mortgage balances.

就我們既有業務而言，工商貸款（C&I）增加 150 億美元，主要由各業務線的廣泛成長所帶動，反映強勁的新承作量與更高的動用率。商用不動產（CRE）餘額到達拐點並增加約 1 億美元，我們預期今年剩餘期間將呈現溫和成長。消費者貸款則因住宅房貸餘額下降而減少 10 億美元。

Slide 6 covers our deposit balances in more detail. Average deposits were $458 billion, up $19 billion, or 4%, driven by the addition of FirstBank balances and partially offset by a reduction in brokered CDs. Excluding those items, deposit trends were consistent with typical seasonality, as growth in consumer balances more than offset a seasonal decline in commercial deposits.

第 6 頁更詳細說明我們的存款餘額。平均存款為 4580 億美元，增加 190 億美元或 4%，主要由 FirstBank 存款加入所帶動，但部分被經紀存單（brokered CDs）減少所抵銷。排除上述因素後，存款趨勢符合典型季節性：消費者存款成長足以抵銷商業存款的季節性下滑。

Non-interest-bearing balances continue to represent 22% of total deposits. And our total rate paid on interest-bearing deposits decreased 18 basis points to 1.96% in the first quarter, reflecting lower rates.

無計息存款餘額仍占總存款的 22%。第一季計息存款的總支付利率下降 18 個基點至 1.96%，反映利率走低。

Turning to slide 7, we highlight our income statement trends. Comparing the first quarter to the most recent fourth quarter and, again, including the impact of the FirstBank acquisition, total revenue was $6.2 billion and grew $94 million, or 2%.

接著看第 7 頁，我們重點說明損益表趨勢。將第一季與最近的第四季相比，並同樣納入 FirstBank 收購的影響，總營收為 62 億美元，增加 9400 萬美元或 2%。

Non-interest expense of $3.8 billion increased $165 million, or 5%, of which $97 million was integration expense. Excluding integration costs, non-interest expense increased 2% and PPNR grew 1%. Provision was $210 million, and our effective tax rate was 19%. As a result, our first-quarter net income was $1.8 billion, or $4.13 per common share and $4.32 when adjusted for integration costs.

非利息費用為38億美元，增加1.65億美元（或5%），其中9,700萬美元為整合費用。剔除整合成本後，非利息費用增加2%，PPNR成長1%。提存費用為2.10億美元，我們的有效稅率為19%。因此，我們第一季淨利為18億美元，普通股每股4.13美元；若調整整合成本後為每股4.32美元。

Turning to slide 8, we detail our revenue trends. First-quarter revenue increased $94 million, or 2%, compared to the prior quarter. Net interest income of $4 billion increased $230 million, or 6%. The growth was driven by the addition of FirstBank, as well as lower funding costs and commercial loan growth. Our net interest margin was 2.95%, an increase of 11 basis points. Non-interest income of $2.2 billion decreased $136 million, or 6%. Inside of that, fee income decreased $44 million, or 2%, linked quarter.

接著看第8頁投影片，我們將說明營收趨勢。第一季營收較前一季增加9,400萬美元（或2%）。淨利息收入為40億美元，增加2.30億美元（或6%）。成長主要來自併入FirstBank，以及資金成本下降與商業貸款成長。我們的淨利息利差為2.95%，上升11個基點。非利息收入為22億美元，減少1.36億美元（或6%）。其中，手續費收入較前一季減少4,400萬美元（或2%）。

Looking at the details, Asset Management and Brokerage increased $9 million, or 2%, due to higher average equity markets and client activity. Capital Markets and Advisory revenue declined $26 million, or 5%, reflecting lower M&A advisory activity off elevated fourth-quarter levels, partially offset by higher underwriting and trading revenue. Card and Cash Management increased $5 million, or 1%, as higher treasury management revenue was partially offset by seasonally lower credit card activity.

就細項而言，資產管理與經紀業務增加900萬美元（或2%），主要因平均股市水準較高及客戶活動增加。資本市場與顧問收入下降2,600萬美元（或5%），反映在第四季高基期後，併購（M&A）顧問活動減少，部分被承銷與交易收入增加所抵銷。卡片與現金管理增加500萬美元（或1%），因財資管理收入增加，部分被季節性較低的信用卡活動所抵銷。

Lending and Deposit Services decreased by $2 million, or 1%. Mortgage revenue decreased $30 million, or 20%, largely attributable to a $31 million decline in MSR valuations, given the heightened rate volatility during the quarter. And other non-interest income of $125 million included $32 million of visa derivative costs, as well as negative private equity valuations, partially offset by $28 million of net security gains.

放款與存款服務減少200萬美元（或1%）。房貸收入減少3,000萬美元（或20%），主要歸因於MSR估值下降3,100萬美元，因本季利率波動加劇。其他非利息收入為1.25億美元，其中包含3,200萬美元的Visa衍生性商品成本，以及私募股權估值下滑，部分被2,800萬美元的淨證券收益所抵銷。

Compared to the same period a year ago, we've demonstrated strong momentum across our franchise. Importantly, fee income grew $240 million, or 13%, driven by broad-based growth in our businesses.

與去年同期相比，我們在整體特許經營版圖上展現強勁動能。重要的是，手續費收入增加2.40億美元（或13%），由各項業務的廣泛成長所帶動。

Turning to slide 9. First-quarter expenses increased $165 million, or 5%, linked quarter, which included $97 million of integration costs. Non-interest expense excluding the impact of integration expense increased $68 million, or 2%, as the addition of FirstBank's operating expenses more than offset lower legacy PNC expenses.

接著看第9頁投影片。第一季費用較前一季增加1.65億美元（或5%），其中包含9,700萬美元的整合成本。剔除整合費用影響後，非利息費用增加6,800萬美元（或2%），因FirstBank新增的營運費用，超過了既有PNC費用的下降幅度。

We remain focused on expense management, and as we've previously stated, we have a goal to reduce costs by $350 million in 2026 through our continuous improvement program, which is independent of the FirstBank acquisition. And this program will continue to fund a significant portion of our ongoing business and technology investments.

我們仍專注於費用管理；如先前所述，透過持續改善計畫（與FirstBank收購無關），我們的目標是在2026年降低3.50億美元成本。該計畫也將持續為我們正在進行的業務與科技投資提供相當大一部分資金。

Our credit metrics are presented on slide 10. Overall credit quality remains strong. Our NPL and delinquency ratios each improved on both a linked quarter and year-over-year basis, reflecting the strong credit quality we continue to see across our portfolio. And the linked quarter growth and balances was entirely attributable to the addition of FirstBank.

我們的信用指標列於第10頁投影片。整體信用品質仍然強勁。我們的不良貸款（NPL）與逾期比率，無論按季（linked quarter）或年增（year-over-year）皆有所改善，反映我們在整體投資組合中持續看到的良好信用品質。而按季的成長與餘額變動完全歸因於併入FirstBank。

Non-performing loans increased $25 million, or 1%, and represented 0.62% of total loans, down from 0.67% last quarter. Total delinquencies increased $115 million to $1.6 billion, and our accruing loans past due declined to 0.43%, down from 0.44% last quarter.

不良貸款增加2,500萬美元（或1%），占總貸款的0.62%，低於上季的0.67%。總逾期金額增加1.15億美元至16億美元；計息逾期貸款比率降至0.43%，低於上季的0.44%。

Total net loan charge-offs of $253 million included $45 million of purchase accounting related to the acquisition. Excluding these acquired charge-offs, our NCO ratio was 24 basis points. At the end of the first quarter, our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.5 billion, or 1.52% of total loans.

淨貸款沖銷總額為2.53億美元，其中包含與收購相關的購買會計（purchase accounting）項目4,500萬美元。剔除這些收購而來的沖銷後，我們的NCO比率為24個基點。第一季末，我們的信用損失準備金總額為55億美元，占總貸款的1.52%。

I want to take a moment to cover the details of our NDFI loans, which are highlighted on slide 11. We've discussed this topic at recent investor conferences, and importantly, nothing has changed in terms of the composition of the book or the underlying risk. NDFI loans continue to represent our lowest-risk loans. Approximately 90% of our NDFI loans are investment-grade or investment-grade equivalent, and all have robust collateral monitoring requirements.

我想花點時間說明我們的NDFI貸款細節，重點列於第11頁投影片。我們在近期投資人會議上已討論過此議題；重要的是，就資產組合構成或底層風險而言，並無任何改變。NDFI貸款仍是我們風險最低的貸款。約90%的NDFI貸款為投資等級或相當於投資等級，且全部都有嚴謹的擔保品監控要求。

Because there's been a lot of focus on the regulatory reporting category of business credit intermediaries, we've further broken out the components in detail on the slide. This category for PNC includes asset securitizations, primarily trade receivable securitizations, of which PNC is an industry-leading provider. These are loans to bankruptcy remote subsidiaries of corporate borrowers secured by diversified pools of receivables. These loans represent approximately 80% of the business credit intermediaries category for PNC.

由於外界高度關注監理申報分類中的「商業信用中介機構」（business credit intermediaries），我們在投影片上進一步將其組成細項拆解說明。PNC在此分類中包含資產證券化，主要為應收帳款證券化，而PNC是該領域的業界領先供應商。這些貸款係提供給企業借款人的破產隔離（bankruptcy remote）子公司，並以分散的應收帳款資產池作為擔保。這些貸款約占PNC「商業信用中介機構」分類的80%。

The remaining 20% of our business credit intermediaries category, approximately $7 billion, is mostly comprised of CLOs secured by private credit provider assets. These are well-structured assets, all supported by senior positions with substantial excess collateral.

我們「商業信用中介機構」分類其餘20%（約70億美元）主要由以私募信貸提供者資產作為擔保的CLO所構成。這些資產結構良好，且皆由具相當超額擔保的優先順位部位所支持。

So again, we've been in these businesses for a long time, and we've experienced virtually no losses going back 25-plus years. We feel very good about the risk content of our NDFI loans and, based on the composition of these low-risk assets, expect zero losses going forward.

因此再次強調，我們深耕這些業務已久，回溯25年以上幾乎沒有發生任何損失。我們對NDFI貸款的風險內涵非常有信心；基於這些低風險資產的組成，我們預期未來將為零損失。

To summarize, PNC reported a strong first quarter, and we're well positioned for the remainder of 2026. Regarding our view of the overall economy, our base case assumes GDP growth to be approximately 1.9% in 2026, and the unemployment rate to drift slightly higher to 4.6% by year-end. We do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates during 2026.

總結而言，PNC第一季表現強勁，且已為2026年剩餘期間做好充分布局。就我們對整體經濟的看法而言，我們的基本情境假設2026年GDP成長約1.9%，失業率至年底小幅上升至4.6%。我們不預期聯準會在2026年降息。

Our outlook for the second quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2026 is as follows. We expect average loans to be up 2% to 3%, net interest income to be up approximately 3%, fee income to be up 2.5%, other non-interest income to be in the range of $150 million to 200 million. Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be up approximately 3.5%. We expect non-interest expense, excluding integration expenses, to be up approximately 2%, and we expect second-quarter net charge-offs to be approximately $225 million.

我們對2026年第二季相較於2026年第一季的展望如下。我們預期平均貸款成長2%至3%，淨利息收入約成長3%，手續費收入成長2.5%，其他非利息收入介於1.50億至2.00億美元。綜合各項營收組成，我們預期總營收約成長3.5%。我們預期剔除整合費用後的非利息費用約成長2%，並預期第二季淨貸款沖銷約為2.25億美元。

Considering our first-quarter operating results, second-quarter expectations, and current economic forecast, our outlook for the full year 2026 compared to 2025 results is as follows. We expect full-year average loan growth to be up approximately 11%. We expect full-year net interest income to be up approximately 14.5%. We expect non-interest income to be up approximately 6%. Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be up approximately 11%; non-interest expense, excluding integration expenses, to be up approximately 7%' and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19.5%.

綜合第一季營運結果、第二季預期以及目前的經濟預測，我們對2026年全年相較於2025年結果的展望如下。我們預期全年平均貸款成長約11%。我們預期全年淨利息收入成長約14.5%。我們預期非利息收入成長約6%。綜合各項營收組成，我們預期總營收成長約11%；剔除整合費用後的非利息費用成長約7%；並預期有效稅率約為19.5%。

As a reminder, our expectation for non-recurring merger and integration costs is approximately $325 million. We recognized $98 million in the first quarter and anticipate approximately $150 million in the second quarter, with the remaining balance to be recognized in the second half of the year.

提醒一下，我們對一次性併購與整合成本的預期約為3.25億美元。我們已於第一季認列9,800萬美元，並預期第二季約認列1.50億美元，其餘餘額將於下半年認列。

And with that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

那麼，Bill 和我已準備好回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

(接線員指示) 美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Hey. Good morning. I guess maybe, Rob, Bill, just if you could talk about deposit growth. As we think about a period, we've not been here in a better part of the last 15 years. We need to hire for longer. I think, as you mentioned, and the forward curve, we may not get any rate cuts.

嗨。早安。我想也許，Rob、Bill，想請你們談談存款成長。當我們思考這段期間，我們在過去 15 年的大部分時間裡都沒遇過這樣的情況。我們需要把人手配置拉長期。我想如你們提到的，以及遠期曲線顯示，我們可能不會看到任何降息。

Just give us a sense of the algorithm to grow core deposits in this environment. How do you think about it? What's the approach? And how difficult do you think it's going to be for PNC and the industry to actually grow low-cost core deposits?

請給我們一些在這種環境下成長核心存款的「演算法」概念。你們怎麼看？做法是什麼？你們認為對 PNC 以及整個產業而言，要真正成長低成本核心存款會有多困難？

I guess I would just frame it a bit different and talk about growth in DDA accounts and retail clients broadly which, in turn, causes deposits to grow. So I don't -- think about the average balance somebody holds as a function of how high rates are and how competitive outside alternatives are. Think about total shots on goal as a number of retail clients we have. So our focus has been on growing retail clients, which is the key to growing deposits long term.

我想我會用稍微不同的方式來框架這個問題，改談 DDA 活期存款帳戶與整體零售客戶的成長，而這反過來會帶動存款成長。所以我不會——把某人持有的平均餘額視為利率有多高、以及外部替代方案競爭有多激烈的函數。我會把重點放在「射門次數」——也就是我們擁有的零售客戶數量。因此，我們的重點一直是擴大零售客戶，這是長期成長存款的關鍵。

The particular rate environment where rates are just kind of steady for a period of time and people are fighting to expand, you see at the margin, and you've heard competitors talk about this, that in certain price categories, people are paying up to maintain balances and/or attract new clients. But we're opening branches. We've opened eight so far this year. We're going to go -- what's our total for the year, Rob? Another 50 or something?

在這種利率在一段時間內大致持平、大家都在爭取擴張的環境下，你會在邊際上看到——你也聽到競爭對手談到——在某些定價區間，大家為了維持餘額和／或吸引新客戶而提高付息。但我們正在開設分行。今年到目前為止我們已經開了 8 家。我們今年總共要開到——Rob，今年總數是多少？再 50 家左右？

Our digital acquisition has been really strong and we just need to continue that. That ultimately will lead to deposit growth.

我們的數位獲客表現非常強勁，我們只需要持續下去。最終這將帶動存款成長。

And we do, Ebrahim, just as a reminder, have deposit growth expectations for the year, sort of staying at these levels. We had a good first quarter sort of staying at these levels with some incremental growth in the back half of '26.

另外，Ebrahim，提醒一下，我們對今年的存款成長是有預期的，大致維持在目前這些水準。第一季表現不錯，基本上維持在這些水準，並在 26 年下半年有一些增量成長。

Understood. Got it. And I guess maybe just separately around customer sentiment, I think all sorts of risks over the last month, including stagflation, what higher oil prices and energy prices would mean for the consumer. Just talk to us if we saw some decline in sentiment over the course of the last month. Or are you as constructive when you think about just growth outlook?

了解。明白。另外我想再分開問一下關於客戶情緒：過去一個月有各種風險，包括停滯性通膨，以及油價與能源價格上升對消費者意味著什麼。請談談我們是否在過去一個月看到情緒有所下滑。或者就成長前景而言，你們仍然同樣偏正面？

Obviously, the guidance suggests nothing's dramatically changed. But I'm wondering -- we came in with a lot of excitement around the tax incentives for businesses, consumers. Is all of that more or less mostly intact?

顯然，你們的指引顯示沒有什麼出現劇烈變化。但我在想——我們原本對企業與消費者的稅務誘因抱有很高的期待。這些因素大致上是否仍然多數維持不變？

I don't know that we can square for you the headline surveys on consumer confidence or small business confidence, which are all not great, how we square that with what we actually see. So when you look through spending patterns, growth in savings, activity levels, loan growth, everything we see day to day in our business is almost at complete odds with the surveys you see on confidence.

我不確定我們能否替你把消費者信心或小企業信心等頭條調查（整體都不太好）與我們實際看到的情況做出對照解釋。因為當你看消費型態、儲蓄成長、活動水準、放款成長——我們在日常業務中看到的一切，幾乎與你在信心調查中看到的結果完全相反。

Yeah, I would just add to that. I mean, in terms of sentiment, obviously, there has to be a higher level of concern. But to Bill's point, the activity hasn't changed.

是的，我再補充一下。就情緒而言，顯然擔憂程度必然更高。但如 Bill 所說，活動並沒有改變。

Yeah, spending's accelerated.

對，支出還加速了。

That's actually good color. Thank you.

這些觀察很有幫助。謝謝。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Actually, I wanted to sort of follow up on that sentiment question and also about what it suggests for loan growth.

早安，各位。謝謝讓我提問。其實我想延續剛才那個情緒的問題，也想問它對放款成長的意涵。

You had a pretty good performance in the first quarter. When I looked at the guide, it doesn't necessarily imply much growth in future quarters off the first-quarter base, but I inferred at least that your commentary on utilization rates sounded good. It sounds like they're increasing. Are you seeing anything specifically that would cause you to be conservative? Or are you sort of approaching with an abundance of caution?

你們第一季表現相當不錯。我看了指引後，它不一定意味著未來幾季會在第一季的基礎上有太多成長，但我至少推論你們對動用率的評論聽起來不錯。聽起來動用率正在上升。你們是否看到任何特定因素讓你們必須保守？還是你們只是採取更審慎的態度？

Well, sure. I can answer that, Scott. Clearly, we saw more than what we expected in terms of loan growth in the first quarter. And on an average base, that's going to pull into the second quarter. On a spot basis going into the second quarter, we actually see it sort of staying flattish because we do have some paydowns that are coming that will offset continued new production.

好的。Scott，我可以回答。很明顯，我們第一季的放款成長超出原先預期。以平均餘額口徑來看，這會延續到第二季。但以進入第二季的期末（spot）口徑來看，我們其實看到大致持平，因為有一些即將發生的還款（paydowns）會抵消持續的新承作。

So that gets you through the second quarter. And then when you look at the back half of the year, we're pointing to growth, but not at the rate that we've seen in the first quarter nor that we expect in the second quarter. And to your point, that is related to concerns that ultimately end up reducing the visibility of what can happen in the second half.

所以這能解釋到第二季。再看下半年，我們指引的是成長，但不會像第一季那麼快，也不會像我們預期第二季那樣。而如你所說，這與一些擔憂有關，最終會降低我們對下半年可能發生情況的能見度。

Long story short -- you've followed us long enough -- we're never going to go out there and say loan growth is going to be this big number. We can't predict it, but we banked some in the first quarter. So we put that in the authority base and go forward. And if we're pleasantly surprised, that'll be great.

簡而言之——你追蹤我們夠久了——我們從來不會出去說放款成長會是某個很大的數字。我們無法預測，但第一季我們已經先「存」了一些。所以我們把它放進基準（base）裡往前看。如果之後有驚喜，那就太好了。

And that will be accretive.

而且那會是增厚（accretive）的。

That's right.

沒錯。

Perfect. Okay, good. Thank you. And then, Rob, maybe just some expanded thoughts on how capital management might change should these Fed proposals or NPRs indeed come through.

完美。好，了解。謝謝。接著，Rob，也許請你更延伸談談：如果這些聯準會提案或 NPR（擬議規則制定通知）真的通過，你們的資本管理可能會如何改變。

How much more aggressively might you think about things? Or what are sort of the governing factors you think about? You get this big relief, but then unclear the ratings agencies are necessarily on board. So what are sort of the puts and takes you see or the kind of factors you think as you walk through that?

你們會在多大程度上更積極地思考這些事？或者你們主要考量的主導因素是什麼？你們得到很大的紓解，但評等機構是否一定買單仍不明朗。所以你們看到的利弊權衡是什麼，或你們在推演時會考量哪些因素？

Yeah. Sure, Scott. So both methodologies -- under both methodologies, we see a reduction in our RWAs of about 10%, as I mentioned in the opening comments, which is a good thing. We're still on the proposal stage or comment stage of the proposal. So we have to work through all the nuances there. But at first blush, because AOCI is blended in under both methodologies over the five years up front, there is no AOCI. It's close to a full point of capital for us.

是的。當然，Scott。在兩種方法論下——如我在開場評論提到的——我們都看到風險加權資產（RWA）約 10% 的下降，這是好事。目前仍在提案／徵詢意見階段。所以我們必須把所有細節都梳理清楚。但初步來看，因為 AOCI 在兩種方法論下都會在前五年逐步納入（blended in），因此一開始不會有 AOCI 的影響。對我們而言，這接近 1 個百分點的資本。

The other issue, you mentioned the rating agencies, and inside of their rating methodologies, they look at risk-weighted assets. So I haven't actually thought through the notion of, hey, we have less. So does this actually just pull through to how they're going to look at us as well? But I kind of think it will.

另一個議題是你提到的評等機構；在他們的評等方法論中，他們會看風險加權資產。所以我其實還沒有完全推演：如果我們的 RWA 變少了，那是否也會反映到他們看待我們的方式？但我大致認為會。

But I don't know if we've gotten to that discussion point with the rating agencies, but they had adjusted their expectations with the change of these proposals. So they've worked the numbers down under the current framework. So it's logical to expect that it would extend into the new methodologies. We'll see.

但我不確定我們是否已經和評等機構談到這個層面；不過他們已經因這些提案的變動而調整了他們的預期。所以他們在現行架構下已把數字往下調。因此，合理的預期是這也會延伸到新的方法論之下。我們再看看。

Yeah, okay. Perfect. All right. Thank you guys very much.

好，行。完美。好。非常感謝各位。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just to follow up on the capital question. So you noted that the ERBA adoption benefit is similar to adopting the revised standardized approach. Would it still make sense to adopt the ERBA as it relates to maybe the flexibility that it could give you in managing the business going forward maybe if you wanted to lean in on the investment-grade credit side or lower LTV CRE? Just wanted to know how to think about this going forward.

嗨。早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想追問一下資本的問題。你們提到採用 ERBA 的效益，和採用修訂後的標準法相近。那麼，就 ERBA 而言，若它能在未來業務管理上提供一些彈性——例如你們想更偏向投資級信貸，或較低 LTV 的商用不動產（CRE）——是否仍有採用的意義？想請教未來該如何看待這件事。

Yeah, I think you're right. On the surface, the ERBA, because of the benefit coming through, investment-grade equivalent loans, which are sort of our wheelhouse, that makes that methodology appealing. But we're still in the analysis stage here. There's still a lot of nuances to figure out and obviously in terms of if there's any changes after the comment period. But you're on the right track.

對，我想你說得沒錯。表面上看，ERBA 的好處在於其效益主要來自投資級等同的貸款，而這正是我們的強項，因此這種方法看起來很有吸引力。但我們目前仍在分析階段。還有很多細節與差異需要釐清，當然也要看意見徵詢期之後是否會有任何變動。不過你的方向是對的。

Got it. And maybe if I can ask the loan growth question and maybe compare it to the NII guide. So I guess you're pretty close to the 3% NIM number you had indicated, and you're taking the loan growth guide up by 3 percentage points and then the NII guide is going up, but maybe to a lesser extent. Is there anything that we should be thinking about on loan spreads or deposit rates that you're baking in now that's different to where we were at the start of the year?

了解。另外我想問一下貸款成長，並和淨利息收入（NII）指引做個對照。我想你們目前已很接近先前提到的 3% 淨利差（NIM）水準；同時你們把貸款成長指引上調了 3 個百分點，而 NII 指引也上調，但幅度似乎較小。在你們目前的假設中，對於貸款利差或存款利率，有沒有納入任何與年初相比不同的變化？

No. Let's start at the beginning. So I'd say the short answer to your question is it's loan mix on the new production piece. So if you go back to January when we called for 8% average loan growth, what we did is we just used average spreads on the new production through 2026.

沒有。我們從頭說起。我會說你這個問題的簡短答案是：新承作的貸款組合（mix）。如果回到 1 月我們提出平均貸款成長 8% 的時候，我們是用一路到 2026 年新承作的平均利差來估算。

Where we find ourselves today after the first quarter is we've generated on a relative basis a much higher volume of higher credit quality deals which, by definition, carry relatively lower spreads; still attractive spreads, still attractive returns, particularly given the non-credit portion of those relationships.

而我們在第一季之後所處的位置是：相對而言，我們做了更高量的高信用品質案子；而這類案子按定義其利差相對較低——但仍是有吸引力的利差、也仍是有吸引力的報酬，特別是考量到這些關係中非信用（non-credit）部分的貢獻。

So it's just a mix change that when we look out for the full year, we'll have higher volume on relatively lower spreads. And as you point out, that results in higher NII than we thought in January, which is a good thing.

所以這只是組合變化：當我們展望全年時，量會更高，但利差相對較低。如你所說，這使得 NII 比我們 1 月時預期的更高，這是好事。

And then as far as NIM -- so we might as well cover NIM because someone will ask the question. We saw a nice increase there in the first quarter relative to our expectations. We still expect to go above 3% in the second half, but as you pointed out, we're at 2.95%. So if we're going to be above 3% in the second half, you can do the math there in between. But most of the expansion of that is still coming from the fixed rate asset repricing that continues to be very strong.

至於 NIM——那我們也一併說明，因為一定會有人問。第一季相較於我們的預期，NIM 有不錯的提升。我們仍預期下半年會高於 3%，但如你指出的，目前是 2.95%。所以如果下半年要高於 3%，中間的變化你可以自己算一下。不過大部分的擴張仍來自固定利率資產的重定價，而這股動能持續非常強。

That's great color. Thank you.

這些說明很有幫助。謝謝。

John Pancari, Evercore.

John Pancari，Evercore。

Morning. On the fee side, I know your Capital Markets rev decreased a bit off the particularly solid fourth quarter, particularly on the M&A front. Can you maybe update us on the outlook here in terms of pipelines and how you'd be thinking about M&A and your other Capital Markets revenue, just given the current backdrop? Thanks.

早安。在手續費方面，我知道你們的資本市場收入相較於第四季特別強勁的表現略有下降，尤其是在併購（M&A）方面。在目前的環境下，你能否更新一下對未來的展望，例如案源管線（pipeline），以及你們如何看待 M&A 與其他資本市場收入？謝謝。

Yeah, sure. I missed the first part of the question, but it was all about Capital Markets and sort of our --

好的，當然。我剛剛漏聽了問題的前半段，但主要是在問資本市場，以及我們的--

He was just saying that Harris Williams draw --

他是在說 Harris Williams 的貢獻--

Harris Williams, okay. Yeah, sorry. No, I've got that. So Harris Williams had a strong quarter actually in the first quarter. It was off the elevated levels of the fourth quarter, but higher than what we expected.

Harris Williams，了解。抱歉。好，我明白了。其實 Harris Williams 在第一季表現很強。雖然較第四季的高檔水準回落，但仍高於我們的預期。

And the good news is their pipelines are strong. So going into the second quarter, we expect them to be a little bit more stable. So we're not expecting them to be at the levels that they've been at the first quarter which, again, is more than what we thought.

好消息是，他們的案源管線很強。因此進入第二季，我們預期表現會更穩定一些。所以我們不預期會維持第一季那樣的水準——再次強調，第一季其實已高於我們原先的預估。

So strong activity there, and that is leading to the guide. So in the second quarter, we have Capital Markets essentially being at the same level. And then more importantly, for the full year, still up double digits.

所以那邊活動量很強，也因此帶動了我們的指引。第二季我們的資本市場收入基本上會維持在相同水準。更重要的是，就全年而言，仍然是雙位數成長。

Got it. Okay, great. And then on the capital front, appreciate the buyback color in terms of the expectation for the second quarter. Maybe just more broadly, if you could talk about capital allocation priorities, and Bill, maybe if you could just give us the old update again on where you stand on M&A interest, just given the backdrop we're in and the activity and the regulatory posture to deals. Just want to get your updated thoughts. Thanks.

了解。好，很好。另外在資本方面，謝謝你們對第二季回購預期的補充說明。更廣泛地說，能否談談資本配置的優先順序？另外 Bill，也許你可以再更新一下你們對併購（M&A）意願的看法，考量目前的環境、交易活動，以及監管對交易的態度。想聽聽你們最新的想法。謝謝。

I'm talking about capital.

我在講資本。

I at least asked you about M&A.

我至少也問了你關於併購（M&A）。

Yeah. So real simply, we obviously like to use our capital on clients and our business. We have increased our buyback, just given capacity to do so. We have and you should expect that we will continue to have healthy dividends. So in the ordinary course, we'd otherwise be giving back more capital to shareholders than perhaps we have in the last handful of years. Rob, is that accurate?

對。很簡單地說，我們當然希望把資本用在客戶與我們的業務上。鑑於我們有能力這麼做，我們已提高回購。而且我們也一直、並且你們可以預期我們會持續維持健康的股利。所以在一般情況下，我們回饋給股東的資本，可能會比過去幾年更多。Rob，這樣說對嗎？

Yeah.

對。

The M&A side, the noise and activity levels, forgetting about us, just kind of what I see going on around us seems to have died down. We're not -- we're focused on growing our company organically. We have great momentum on that. We keep our eyes open, but I -- you've heard me say a lot of times, I just don't think there's going to be a lot of activity, particularly with us. It's an easy year for banks. People are happy to do what they want to do, and we're not going to push on a string, nor do we need to.

至於併購（M&A）方面，先不談我們自己，單就我看到周遭的雜音與活動量來看，似乎已經降溫了。我們不——我們專注於以有機方式成長公司。我們在這方面動能很強。我們會保持關注，但——你也聽我講過很多次，我不認為會有很多活動，尤其是涉及我們的。對銀行來說，今年是相對輕鬆的一年。大家都樂於做自己想做的事，我們不會硬推，也沒有必要。

Got it. All right. Thanks, Bill. Appreciate it.

了解。好。謝謝你，Bill。感謝。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

Ken Usdin，Autonomous Research。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Hey, I was just wondering -- obviously, we see the outlook for the cost still intact for the year and then hires first to second. Can you just remind us expected closing of FirstBank and then the magnitude of saves you're expecting and then how that cascades to a run rate as you get through the rest of the year? Thanks.

嗨。謝謝。早安。我想請教——顯然我們看到今年的成本展望仍維持不變，另外人員招募在第一季到第二季之間也有變化。你能否提醒我們 FirstBank 預計何時完成交割（closing），以及你們預期的節省幅度有多大，並且在今年剩餘時間推進時，這會如何反映到經常性費用水準（run rate）上？謝謝。

Yeah. Sure, Ken. So again, our full-year guide holds in terms of expenses up 7%, which includes the operating expenses of FirstBank. You didn't ask the question, though, in terms of sort of how the expenses have fallen in the quarter. Some people have asked that. Relative to the first quarter, we spent a little less than we expected that will fall into the second quarter, largely around technology investments and the timing of those investments.

是的。當然，Ken。所以再說一次，我們全年指引在費用方面仍然維持不變，費用成長7%，其中包含FirstBank的營運費用。不過你剛才問的不是這個，而是費用在本季的落點大概如何。有些人有問到這點。相較第一季，我們的支出比原先預期少一些，這部分會落到第二季，主要與科技投資以及這些投資的時點安排有關。

On FirstBank itself, everything's going well. We're still planning to convert to mid-June. So everything's holding there. We expect, as I said, $325 million or so of integration charges. And then we'll see the decline of their run rate, obviously, in terms of the second half of '26. There'll be some residual integration charges in the second half, but the majority will be completed in the second quarter which, in my comments, I pointed out will be about $150 million.

就FirstBank本身而言，一切進展順利。我們仍計畫在6月中旬進行轉換。所以各項進度都維持不變。我們預期，如我所說，整合費用約為3.25億美元。然後很明顯地，在2026年下半年，他們的費用run rate會下降。下半年仍會有一些剩餘的整合費用，但大部分會在第二季完成；我在評論中也指出，第二季大約會是1.5億美元。

So that's all in our guidance. That's all there. It's on track, and we feel good about it.

所以這些都已反映在我們的指引裡。都包含在內。進度符合預期，我們對此感覺良好。

Got it. And so then, I would assume that the cost savings would run rate by the fourth quarter, and then that's giving you a good starting point --

了解。那我想成本節省應該會在第四季達到run rate，然後這會給你一個很好的起點--

Yeah, that's right. I think that's a good place to start.

對，沒錯。我覺得那是個不錯的起點。

Okay, cool. Great. And Rob, can you actually dig on that point a little bit, just to push off of some spending from first to second? That was going to be my follow-up, actually. Does that demonstrate the flexibility that you guys have or -- go ahead. Thank you.

好，酷。很好。Rob，你能不能就那點再深入一點談談，也就是把一些支出從第一季往第二季遞延？其實那正是我接下來要追問的。這是否顯示你們具備一些彈性，或是——你先說。謝謝。

No. I mean, well, of course, we have flexibility, but that wasn't what drove it. It was just in terms of the timing. It can slip into the second quarter in terms of what we plan to do in the last couple of weeks of the first quarter. Nothing major.

不。我的意思是，當然我們有彈性，但並不是因為彈性才這樣。純粹是時點安排的問題。我們原本計畫在第一季最後幾週要做的事情，時程上可能就順延到第二季。沒有什麼重大事項。

Okay. I got it. All right. Thanks a lot.

好。了解。好吧。非常感謝。

David Chiaverini, Jefferies.

David Chiaverini，Jefferies。

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. So on deposit pricing competition, are there any differences in competitiveness by geography in your footprint?

嗨。謝謝讓我提問。關於存款定價競爭，在你們的營運版圖中，不同地理區域的競爭激烈程度有差異嗎？

Not really.

沒有太大差別。

I was going to say in our retail memo, Midwest, there were comments on just the Midwest being kind of tight with high promo offers by a few of the competitors. But it depends. In part of the country, people doing big promo CDs in other parts of the country, they're --

我本來想說，在我們的零售備忘錄裡，中西部那邊有提到一些評論，說中西部的情況有點緊，因為有幾家競爭對手推出很高的促銷優惠。但這要看情況。在某些地區，有人做很大的促銷定存（CD），在其他地區，他們--

And Midwest with CDs.

而中西部是在CD（定存）。

It's in their money market funds. People are fighting for deposits and people are fighting for clients.

是在他們的貨幣市場基金。大家都在搶存款，也都在搶客戶。

They're not particularly harder in any geography.

沒有哪個地理區域特別更難。

Yeah, maybe. But we're -- it relates to us. You can see our growth. And our growth in clients has been really strong. And we don't have to go and lead with our faces here on price.

對，可能吧。但就我們而言——這跟我們的情況有關。你可以看到我們的成長。而且我們的客戶成長一直非常強勁。我們不需要在價格上衝到最前面、硬拚。

Yeah. No, that's fair. Sounds like it's mostly stable, so that's good. And then shifting onto the loan side, can you talk about borrower sentiment pipelines and then the competitiveness on the loan pricing front?

好。不，這很合理。聽起來大致上是穩定的，這很好。接著轉到放款端，你能談談借款人情緒、案源管線，以及在貸款定價方面的競爭情況嗎？

Yeah. So again, first quarter was really strong. It's always competitive. Like I said, our new production was skewed towards the higher credit quality, lower spread. And the pipelines look strong. A continuation of that into the second quarter, which I mentioned earlier. So pipelines are good.

可以。所以再說一次，第一季非常強勁。市場一直都很競爭。如我所說，我們的新承作偏向信用品質較高、利差較低的案子。而且案源管線看起來很強。我先前也提到，這樣的態勢延續到第二季。所以管線是好的。

The only thing we've really seen on spread widening as you get into any of the space, what I'll call leveraged lending, we don't do much of that. But in business credit, we've seen spreads move. Our partnership with TCW on cash flow lending, those spreads have got 50 basis points new production just because of the kind of scare around what's going on --

我們真正看到利差擴大的地方，是在我所稱的槓桿融資領域；我們做得不多。但在企業授信方面，我們看到利差有變動。我們與TCW在現金流放款上的合作，新承作的利差擴大了50個基點，主要是因為市場對目前發生的事情有些擔憂--

And make sure this is --

而且要確保這是--

Yeah, this is good thing.

對，這是好事。

The other thing to mention around loans is that we did reach the inflection point on our commercial real estate balances, which we called for in the first quarter of '26. So as you know, that's been a headwind for a number of quarters. And we've reached that inflection point as we expected.

關於放款還有一點要提的是，我們的商用不動產（CRE）餘額已經到達拐點，這也是我們原先預期會在2026年第一季出現的。如你所知，這在過去好幾季一直是逆風。而我們如預期到達了那個拐點。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

Chris McGratty，KBW。

Great. Good morning. Bill and Rob, you talked a lot about your confidence in the credit of the private credit portfolio and EFI lending. I guess, where would that rank in the wall of worry within the company? It seems like the market's, to your point, overestimating the kind of loss content, but where in the risk curve does that lie?

很好。早安。Bill和Rob，你們談了很多對私募信貸投資組合與EFI放款信用狀況的信心。我想問的是，在公司內部的「擔憂之牆」裡，這會排在什麼位置？看起來市場如你所說，高估了可能的損失程度，但在風險曲線上，這大概落在哪裡？

It's not even on the curve. I mean, if you go through that whole bucket, the riskiest piece in the whole thing is that little $5 billion slice that is to REITs and leasing and this and that and the other thing. It's not like a AAA CLO senior tranche static maturity.

這甚至不在曲線上。我的意思是，如果你把那整個桶子看一遍，裡面最風險的部分是那小小一塊50億美元，放給REITs、租賃之類的這些項目。它不是那種AAA級CLO優先分層、靜態到期的產品。

To my memory, there's never actually been a loss in the history of the product of the AAA -- of a corporate. The BDC exposure is really small. Even if that whole market blows up, which I don't think it's going to, that just causes that product to early in. You have to have massive corporate defaults and low recovery rates to ever get hit on that.

就我記憶所及，在AAA——也就是企業類AAA產品的歷史上，從來沒有真正發生過損失。BDC曝險非常小。即便整個市場崩掉——我不認為會——那也只會讓那個產品提前結束。你必須出現大規模企業違約、而且回收率很低，才可能讓那部分受到衝擊。

So I just -- you want to talk -- remember, when we highlighted our real estate book, we said, hey, we're worried about this, we're working through it, we reserved a lot of it, sorry, in office. This isn't even on the page of what we're looking at. This is nothing.

所以我只是——你想想——記得我們之前強調不動產放款組合時，我們說，嘿，我們擔心這個，我們正在處理，我們也提了很多準備，抱歉，是在辦公室（office）那塊。但這件事甚至不在我們關注的清單上。這根本不算什麼。

I mean, it's great business. It doesn't worry me. I worry about trucking companies and I worry about people who are dependent on fuel and what's going to happen to discretionary spending. This isn't in that list.

我的意思是，這是很好的生意。它不讓我擔心。我擔心的是卡車運輸公司，我擔心的是那些依賴燃料的企業，以及可支配支出會發生什麼變化。這不在那份清單裡。

And just as a follow-up, that real estate piece that you point to that's the most risk is very little risk. So that's on a relative basis, but I think we had one loss back in 2014 in that category and we're still talking about it.

再追問一下，你指出那塊不動產是風險最高的部分，但其實風險也非常小。所以那是相對而言；但我想我們在2014年那一類別裡只發生過一次損失，而我們到現在還在談它。

Oh, in the REITs, yeah.

喔，在 REITs 那邊，是的。

I mean, I get with Ian and the market has seen liquidity events in a small slice of what is private credit and it has scared everybody. And maybe it should if you're somehow trying to get money out in a hurry, but that isn't where we are. We're a senior position, I guess, diversified pool of loans with a low advance rate. We've been in the -- we've been doing this for 30 years.

我的意思是，我同意 Ian 的看法，市場在私募信貸這個大範疇中的一小部分看到了流動性事件，這把大家都嚇到了。如果你是想在很短時間內把錢抽出來，也許確實應該擔心，但那不是我們的情況。我們處於較高順位（senior position），我想，是一個分散化的貸款池，而且預付率（advance rate）很低。我們一直在做——我們做這件事已經 30 年了。

And then just to add to that, and this is important because a lot of people focus on it, that category is business credit intermediaries. The vast majority of ours are trade securitizations. So people sometimes mistakenly call that whole category private credit. And for us, it's quite the opposite.

另外再補充一點，而且這很重要，因為很多人都聚焦在這裡：那個類別是「商業信貸中介」（business credit intermediaries）。我們其中絕大多數是貿易證券化（trade securitizations）。所以有時候人們會誤把整個類別都稱作私募信貸。但對我們而言，恰恰相反。

So we stayed in, just to hammer on this point, way back in the financial crisis when corporate receivable securitizations used to be done through CP, it kind of all stopped with the reversal of money funds. And a handful of us just started doing it on balance sheet. Really high credit quality, not a great spread, great return on economic risk, kind of lousy return on liquidity, decent return on regulatory capital. And we're by far the market leader in it. And that's what's blowing up that category for us when you look at comparisons of how much we have in the book.

所以我們一直留在這個領域——再強調一次——早在金融危機時，企業應收款證券化以前常透過商業本票（CP）來做，但隨著貨幣市場基金的逆轉，這類交易幾乎都停了。而我們少數幾家就開始把它放在資產負債表上做。信用品質非常高，利差不大，但就經濟風險而言回報很棒；就流動性而言回報有點差；就監管資本而言回報還不錯。而且我們在這個市場上遠遠是領導者。這也是為什麼當你比較我們帳上規模時，這個類別在我們這裡看起來會「膨脹」得很明顯。

But it is not risky. It's a great business and we're going to keep doing it. And as an aside, we're going to have some conversations with the regulators on the uselessness of what they've defined as NDFIs.

但它並不風險高。這是一門很好的生意，我們會繼續做下去。順帶一提，我們也會和監管機構談談他們所定義的 NDFIs 有多麼沒有用。

Great color. Thank you. Thank you for that. Just my follow-up, I think it was $350 million you talked about is the savings. I'm interested beyond this year, you've got the cost savings from this program and also the FirstBank deal. Is there more -- I guess, is there more behind this potential to cut costs as you -- as the narrative around AI and technology investments, is there another benefit that yields in the next couple of years?

資訊很有幫助。謝謝。謝謝你的說明。我追問一下，我想你提到的節省金額是 3.5 億美元。我想了解的是，除了今年之外，你們有這個計畫的成本節省，還有 FirstBank 交易帶來的節省。是否還有更多——我想問的是，隨著 AI 與科技投資的敘事推進，未來幾年是否還有其他能帶來進一步降本的效益？

Yes is the short answer. I don't know that it's a standout structural change in the efficiency of banks in the sense that we've been automating for years and years and years and largely kept our headcount flat as we've doubled or tripled the size of the company. That sort of thing continues.

簡短回答：是的。但我不確定這是否會是銀行效率上的某種非常突出的結構性改變，因為我們多年來一直在自動化，而且在公司規模翻倍或三倍的同時，員工人數大致維持不變。這類趨勢會持續。

AI allows that to continue. Maybe it accelerates through time. Maybe you can establish a competitive advantage early on, be a leader in it, but everybody's eventually going to catch up, and we're going to get to a place where banking, same trend we've been on forever and ever, is going -- the winner's going to be low-cost providers of really good products with trust behind it.

AI 讓這件事得以延續。也許它會隨時間推進而加速。也許你可以在早期建立競爭優勢、成為領先者，但最終大家都會追上來；而我們會走到一個位置：銀行業——也就是我們一直以來的趨勢——贏家會是以低成本提供真正優質產品、並且背後有信任支撐的業者。

We're going to squeeze costs out of the production of what we basically offer to customers. And you're going to need to do that to win in a consolidated industry.

我們會在我們基本上提供給客戶的產品生產流程中擠出成本。而在一個整併中的產業裡，你必須這麼做才能勝出。

But that's likely over multiple years. So for 2026, our continuous improvement, $350 million of savings, is part of our guide, which is up 7%.

但這很可能需要好幾年。所以對 2026 年而言，我們的持續改善所帶來的 3.5 億美元節省，已經納入我們的指引，而該指引是成長 7%。

Yeah, got it. Great. Thank you.

好，了解。很好。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

(接線員指示) 德意志銀行 Matt O'Connor。

Good morning. Can you guys talk about your interest rate positioning right now? And I guess how you're thinking about hedging, because I feel like the best hedges are put on when maybe the market doesn't really know where rates might go, which is kind of where we're at right now, because it feels like that. So where are you right now? And what are you kind of more concerned about protecting, your downside or upside?

早安。你們能談談目前的利率部位配置嗎？以及我想你們如何看待避險，因為我覺得最好的避險通常是在市場其實不太確定利率會往哪裡走的時候建立，而我們現在似乎就處在這種狀態，感覺就是如此。所以你們現在在哪個位置？你們比較擔心要保護哪一邊，下行風險還是上行？

Sort of technical answer. We are basically economic value of capital flat, so duration is zero in our equity. We're flat to overall rate movement inside of our balance sheet.

有點技術性的回答。我們基本上在資本的經濟價值（economic value of capital）上是持平的，所以我們權益的存續期間（duration）為零。在資產負債表內，我們對整體利率變動是中性的。

Having said that, we have continued the process, as you've seen us do last year and this year, of locking in forward curve rates, particularly when we see some volatility to the upside, the belly of the curve. So we've done that well. It gives us greater certainty around some of our comments we've talked about with respect to -- certainly with '26, but even '27 and into '28 as we lock down some of these rates.

話雖如此，我們持續推進你們去年和今年看到我們在做的事：鎖定遠期曲線利率，特別是在我們看到上行波動、尤其是曲線中段（belly of the curve）出現波動時。所以我們做得不錯。這讓我們對先前談到的一些看法更有確定性——當然包括 2026 年，甚至 2027 年以及延伸到 2028 年，因為我們把其中一些利率鎖下來了。

So neutral in '26 and looking to lock in some in '27 and '28, similar to what we did last year.

所以 2026 年是中性，同時也在尋求鎖定 2027 年和 2028 年的一部分，類似我們去年做的方式。

Yeah. Part of this discussion, though, of course, is we're going to have really good NII trajectory for the next couple of years. We're going to do that despite being flat total rate exposure, which means we're not trading our future, like five years out, for the ability to produce really strong NII in the first couple of years.

是的。不過這個討論的一部分當然是：未來幾年我們的淨利息收入（NII）走勢會非常好。即便我們的總利率曝險是持平的，我們也能做到這點；這代表我們並沒有拿五年後的未來去交換前一兩年能產出很強 NII 的能力。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess specifically within some of these MSR hedges, the Residential and Commercial, I understand this is not like the broader interest rate risk management. But I'm wondering, is there anything kind of to read through there? You've had pretty strong net gains the last several quarters, and this time, I think it was more offsetting. Just anything interesting to point out there.

好。這很有幫助。然後我想更具體問一下，在這些 MSR 避險裡，住宅與商用部分，我理解這不像更廣義的利率風險管理。但我想知道，這裡面有沒有什麼值得解讀的訊號？過去幾季你們的淨收益相當強，而這次我想比較像是互相抵銷。有沒有什麼有趣的點可以指出？

We got chopped up. I mean, that's a massively negative convex book and your short options, which way you try to hedge it, and realized vol was way higher than implied as we tried to hedge out that risk, but we got chopped up. It happens and you're exposed to it.

我們被來回洗掉了（got chopped up）。我的意思是，那是一個負凸性非常強的部位，你等於是賣出期權（short options），不管你用哪種方式去避險；而在我們試圖對沖掉那個風險時，實現波動率（realized vol）遠高於隱含波動率（implied），所以我們被來回洗掉了。這種事會發生，你也會暴露在其中。

Anytime you have rate swings as aggressively as we saw in the first quarter around some of the news. And you're right, through time, that tends to be an income producing line item for us where usually we're plus, I don't know, $10 million.

只要利率像我們第一季因一些消息而看到的那樣劇烈波動，就會這樣。而你說得對，長期來看，這通常是我們一個能帶來收入的項目，通常我們是正的，我不知道，大概 1,000 萬美元。

It's not a driver to your point.

但如你所說，它不是主要驅動因素。

Yeah. It's just we got chopped up this quarter.

是的。這一季就是被來回洗掉了。

This quarter, the heightened rate volatility was the driver of an unusually large negative for us.

這一季，利率波動加劇是導致我們出現異常大幅負值的原因。

But it wasn't like -- nobody screwed up. It wasn't a trading thing. It was literally realized volatility is higher than what was implied. So anything that has optionality, and it in effect gets hurt in that environment.

但不是那種——沒有人搞砸。也不是交易操作的問題。就是實現波動率高於隱含波動率。所以任何帶有選擇權特性的部位，在那種環境下實際上都會受傷。

Okay. Yeah, and I realized the Residential and Commercial essentially offset each other. So that's not too bad getting chopped up. Okay, thank you.

好。是的，而且我也注意到住宅與商用基本上互相抵銷。所以被來回洗掉也不算太糟。好，謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行 Mike Mayo。

Hey. To the extent that RWA with Basel III might be 10% less, how would you plan to use that extra capital? And when might you start leaning into using more capital or maybe you're doing so already? Clearly, you're leaning into using capital with debt -- loan growth that you had and you expect, but maybe more buybacks a deal. How do you think about using that excess capital and when? Thanks.

嘿。如果在巴塞爾協議 III 下的 RWA 可能少 10%，你們會如何運用那多出來的資本？以及你們可能何時會開始更積極地使用更多資本，或許你們已經在這麼做了？很明顯你們正透過債務——貸款成長（你們已經有、也預期會有的）來更積極運用資本，但也許會有更多庫藏股回購或併購交易。你們如何看待這些超額資本的運用，以及時間點？謝謝。

It's down the road, but we've increased our buyback. We've seen good deployment to our growth in the franchise. We'll see when this thing even gets comments are in and it gets approved and it gets done. And then it'll be a whole new environment and we'll figure out what we do at that point in time. But it's a nice problem to have. We're going to drop a point of capital into our pocket. We'll figure it out when it shows up.

還要再往後一點，但我們已經提高了回購。我們看到資金很好地投入到我們特許經營的成長上。等這件事開始收到意見、獲得核准並完成之後再看。到那時就會是全新的環境，我們會在那個時間點再決定要怎麼做。但這算是個不錯的煩惱。我們會把一個百分點的資本放進口袋裡。等它真的出現時我們再來處理。

How do you see competition? It seems like the industry is all playing offense or everyone's front footed. You've been growing unused lines of credit. And I guess that's unused commitments, I mean, and that's playing out to a certain degree. So you've already been competing, but others are coming back more in force.

你怎麼看競爭？看起來整個產業都在進攻，或是大家都採取更積極的姿態。你們一直在增加未動用的授信額度。我想那是未動用承諾額度的意思，而且在某種程度上確實正在發酵。所以你們其實已經在競爭了，但其他人正更大力地回來。

So how do you see competition generally, especially with regard to loan growth? How are you getting so much more loan growth than the industry? To what degree are you competing on price? And I don't know, it just seems like everyone has excess capital. In those situations, historically, you've seen competition swing a little too far. I don't think you're there, but just trying to take the pulse.

所以你整體上怎麼看競爭，特別是就放款成長而言？你們怎麼能做到比產業高出這麼多的放款成長？你們在多大程度上是靠價格在競爭？而且我不知道，看起來好像每個人都有過剩資本。在那種情況下，歷史上你會看到競爭有時會走得有點過頭。我不覺得現在已經到那一步，但只是想掌握一下脈動。

Yeah, that is in our story. I mean, we're bringing all these new markets online. We have more shots on goal. So we're just -- we're seeing more opportunities as opposed to trying to rebid the same deal I've been in for 22 years in our local market. So that's a big part of it. And that's why we -- you saw when we kind of went through the Southeast, now it's accelerating with BBVA and FirstBank markets.

對，這就是我們故事的一部分。我的意思是，我們把這些新市場都上線了。我們有更多射門機會。所以我們只是——我們看到更多機會，而不是試著去重新競標我在本地市場做了22年的同一筆案子。所以這是很大一部分原因。也因此你看到我們一路走過東南部之後，現在隨著BBVA和FirstBank市場，成長正在加速。

The other issue is we have a much more, I don't know what to call it, specialty lending. Don't read that as high risk, but we're in a lot of lending products that aren't commodity capital. So whether it's our corporate receivables business or asset-based lending or we're equipment finance, we're in all -- a lot of things that isn't simply throwing money out as a generic good. And I think at the margin, that always helps us outperform.

另一個因素是，我們有更——我不知道該怎麼稱呼——專業型放款。不要把這解讀成高風險，但我們做了很多不是「商品化資本」的放款產品。所以不論是我們的企業應收帳款業務、資產基礎融資，或是設備融資，我們涉足——很多事情都不只是把錢當作一般商品丟出去。我認為在邊際上，這總是能幫助我們跑贏同業。

The other piece of that -- it's just on the expansion of the new markets or what we call our expansion markets for our market-based corporate loans. So our national businesses aside, they're now half our loans.

另外一塊——就是新市場的擴張，或我們所說的擴張市場，用於我們以市場為基礎的企業放款。所以撇開我們的全國性業務不談，這些現在已經占我們放款的一半。

Yeah, and growing twice the pace.

對，而且成長速度是兩倍。

That's a big, big driver.

那是一個非常、非常大的驅動因素。

I'm sorry, I missed what you said there. How much of your -- what's half your loans?

抱歉，我剛剛沒聽清楚你說的。你們的——哪一部分是占你們放款的一半？

50%, 51%, more than half of our market-based loans. So we have national businesses that are not market-based, but in all the markets that we've entered within the last 12 years, half of our corporate loans are in those markets.

50%、51%，我們以市場為基礎的放款中，超過一半。所以我們有一些不是以市場為基礎的全國性業務，但在過去12年我們進入的所有市場裡，我們的企業放款有一半是在那些市場。

That's interesting. And what was that percentage, to say, a few years ago?

這很有意思。那如果說幾年前，那個比例大概是多少？

40%, I don't know. I've been in for 30%. It probably started at 30%, depending on where you are. But it's growing at two times the rate.

40%吧，我不確定。我以前看過是30%。它一開始大概是30%，視你所處的時間點而定。但它的成長速度是兩倍。

Yeah, cool. It's growing two times the rate? Okay.

對，很酷。它的成長速度是兩倍？好。

Yeah, generally speaking.

對，大致上是這樣。

And you recall any of the expansion markets in particular being a little bit stronger than others?

你還記得有哪些擴張市場特別比其他市場更強嗎？

Well, we've done very well in the Southeast where we've been the longest. But then certainly with the Southwest, Texas and California, Colorado now, because we're online there --

嗯，我們在東南部做得非常好，因為我們在那裡最久。但當然，西南部、德州和加州、現在的科羅拉多也一樣，因為我們已經在那裡上線了--

California has been in some ways shockingly strong. It's just that it's a target-rich environment that the amount of commercial middle market clients that are within the zip codes of California.

加州在某些方面強得令人吃驚。那裡就是一個目標非常密集的環境，加州各郵遞區號範圍內的商業中型市場客戶數量非常可觀。

Yeah, massive.

對，規模巨大。

Great clients, great fee. And the other thing I'd just remind you is we haven't done this by just doing loans. Our fee income percentage in these new markets is actually equal to or higher than our legacy markets.

客戶很棒、手續費也很棒。另外我想提醒你的是，我們不是靠只做放款來做到這些的。我們在這些新市場的手續費收入占比，實際上與我們的既有市場相當，甚至更高。

Yeah, it's an excellent point.

對，這點非常好。

Yeah. So it's not like we're running out and throwing money at people. We're like -- it's an integrated relationship, but we're really good at it and we're growing.

對。所以不是說我們跑出去就把錢砸給別人。我們是——這是一種整合式的關係經營，但我們很擅長，而且我們正在成長。

All right. That's helpful. Thank you.

好。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Hey, Bill. Hey, Rob. Bill, following up in your comments about the focus on organic growth, can you share with us an update? I think it was at the BABB conference in November Rob and Gunner gave us more details about the retail expansion that you guys are undertaking. Can you share with us how is that going? What are you learning from the process? And are you pleased with the pace in which you're growing it?

嗨，Bill。嗨，Rob。Bill，延續你剛才關於聚焦內生成長的評論，你能跟我們更新一下嗎？我記得在11月的BABB會議上，Rob和Gunner向我們提供了更多你們正在推動的零售擴張細節。你能跟我們分享一下進展如何嗎？你們從這個過程中學到了什麼？以及你們對目前的成長速度滿意嗎？

I'm chuckling here because Alex is going to be amused that his older brother gave the presentation. First of all, it's working. What have we learned through the process? It's actually hard to build 60 or 100 branches a year. The site location, the teams that you need in each market to pull this off, we've kind of created a production factory around it.

我在這裡笑了，因為Alex會覺得很好笑，他哥哥來做了簡報。首先，它確實有效。我們從過程中學到什麼？其實一年要蓋60到100家分行很不容易。選址、以及每個市場要配置的團隊來完成這件事，我們算是圍繞它打造了一個生產工廠。

We've learned a lot about how to create a massive buzz around a new branch opening, that is particularly when we're trying to, in effect, get our fair share in a newer market where we're building a lot of branches. We haven't leaned into pricing to attract new customers necessarily, which is an accelerant if we want to use it. But they're working really well.

我們學到很多，如何在新分行開幕時製造巨大的話題熱度，特別是當我們試圖在一個較新的市場中，透過大量設點來取得應有的市占時。我們不一定靠價格來吸引新客戶，我們其實沒有特別往那方面用力；如果我們想用，那會是加速器。但這些分行的表現非常好。

And have you -- and then on the metrics, have you kind of crystallized what you need in deposits or the type of deposits to bring a branch up to, let's say, breakeven? And generally, how long does it take to reach that point?

那你們——在指標方面，你們是否已經更明確地界定，一家分行要達到例如損益兩平，需要多少存款或什麼類型的存款？一般而言，要多久才能達到那個點？

Yeah. So everything's on track, Gerard. And as Alex pointed out back in November, we sort of pen in three years to kind of get to breakeven. Actually, we're running a little better than that right now. But everything, to Bill's point, is on plan and we're excited about it.

對。所以一切都在軌道上，Gerard。正如Alex在11月提到的，我們大致以三年作為達到損益兩平的目標。其實目前我們的表現比那個目標稍微好一些。但如Bill所說，一切都按計畫進行，我們也很興奮。

Very good. Pivoting away from this growth, I know you know, Bill, because you've talked about it, there's been a change in the leverage lending guidelines by the FDIC and OCC. Have you been able to optimize any of your lending now that these -- I think it went into effect in December that those restrictions went away. But are you seeing any benefits from that where you're winning new business because you're able to have some flexibility and optionality now?

很好。先把成長話題放一邊，我知道你也清楚，Bill，因為你談過：FDIC和OCC對槓桿放款指引有所變更。在這些——我想是12月生效、那些限制取消之後——你們是否已經能夠優化部分放款？你是否看到任何好處，例如因為你們現在能有一些彈性與選擇性，而贏得新業務？

That's a good question. Most of our struggle with that was that it was capturing business that we were going to do anyway, no matter how much they yelled at us, because it was really good business and they just had the definition wrong. I'm actually not -- maybe at the margin, we've seen some acceleration in some of that stuff. But mostly what that did is it opened the window for banks just to do good, smart business and not try to write a four-paragraph description of what is a good or a bad loan, which you just can't do today.

這是個好問題。我們在這方面的大多數掙扎在於，它把我們本來無論他們怎麼對我們大喊大叫都會去做的業務也算進去了，因為那其實是很好的生意，只是他們把定義搞錯了。我其實不——也許在邊際上，我們確實看到其中一些事情有些加速。但大體上，這所做的主要是為銀行打開了一扇窗，讓大家只要做好的、聰明的業務，而不是試圖用四段話去描述什麼是好貸款或壞貸款——在今天你根本做不到。

Very good. Thank you very much.

非常好。非常感謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Hi. Good morning. Just a few quick follow-ups. Bill and Rob, I know you were asked a lot about the deposit opportunity, which you answered fully. Just wondering, just pulling up, if the Fed doesn't cut this year, how do you think deposit costs behave? Do you think that you could hold the line on deposit costs if the Fed doesn't cut?

嗨。早安。我有幾個很快的追問。Bill 和 Rob，我知道你們被問了很多關於存款機會的問題，你們也回答得很完整。我只是想問一下，往後看，如果聯準會今年不降息，你們認為存款成本會怎麼走？如果聯準會不降息，你們覺得你們能把存款成本守在目前水準嗎？

Yeah. Hey, Erica, this is Rob. Yeah, I do think -- I think so. If the Fed doesn't cut, which is our expectations that they won't, deposit costs stay fairly steady through the second quarter and then maybe in our -- by our estimates, maybe go up a basis point or two. But generally speaking --

是的。嗨，Erica，我是 Rob。是的，我認為——我想是的。如果聯準會不降息，而這也是我們的預期，也就是他們不會降息，那麼存款成本在第二季會維持相當穩定，然後依我們的估算，可能只會上升 1 到 2 個基點。但一般來說——

The pressure up isn't from necessarily competition, but rather just repricing back book as things kind of roll. So we're bringing back book customers closer to a market level, which kind of at the margin will cost our deposit costs to go up over the next period if the Fed doesn't move. But it's not -- it's all in our guide and it's not material and we'll still hit the 3%.

向上的壓力不一定是來自競爭，而是更多來自於舊有存款組合（back book）隨著到期滾動而重新定價。所以我們會把舊有客戶的利率拉回更接近市場水準，這在邊際上會讓我們的存款成本在接下來一段時間、如果聯準會不動的情況下略為上升。但這——都已反映在我們的指引裡，影響不大，我們仍然會達到 3%。

And that back book repricing is a dynamic that's been in place for a while. That's not new. So generally steady. But obviously, there's a risk if loan growth continues to exceed and there's pressure on those deposits, but that would be a good thing.

而且這種舊有存款重新定價的動態已經存在一段時間了。這不是新的。所以整體而言是穩定的。但顯然，如果貸款成長持續超過（預期）並對存款造成壓力，那會有風險，不過那其實會是件好事。

Got it. And just finally, Bill, one of your peers, David Solomon, actually talked about widening spreads in certain pockets of NDFI lending. Are you observing similar spread expansion in certain NDFI type credits?

了解。最後再問一下，Bill，你的一位同業 David Solomon 其實談到在某些 NDFI 放款領域利差正在擴大。你們是否也觀察到某些 NDFI 類型的授信利差擴大？

So drill down on that. We're inside of NDFIs. The spot everybody's focused on is in private credit and inside of our bucket in that our $7 billion is 90% CLOs, AAA tranches I imagine have widened. I imagine facilities to BDCs are going to widen as people -- as the fear factor steps in. We have like $500 million of them. So the odds of me figuring out that there's a spread movement in there is kind of unlikely because we're huge in the flow.

那我們把這個再往下拆一下。我們有做 NDFI。大家最關注的點是在私募信貸（private credit），而在我們那一桶裡，我們的 70 億美元有 90% 是 CLO，我想 AAA 分層的利差已經擴大了。我想對 BDC 的授信額度也會擴大，因為——隨著恐懼因素開始上升。我們大概有 5 億美元這類部位。所以要我在那裡精準判斷利差有什麼變動，其實不太可能，因為我們在流量上規模很大。

Yeah. Got it. Perfect. Thank you.

是的。了解。很好。謝謝。

John McDonald, Truist.

John McDonald，Truist。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Rob, I was kind of wondering as loan growth is picking up here, your reserve ratios look solid, but any need to start to provide a little bit for loan growth as we look ahead?

嗨。謝謝。早安。Rob，我在想，隨著貸款成長在這裡開始回升，你們的備抵比率看起來很穩健，但往前看，是否需要因為貸款成長而開始多提一點備抵（提存）？

Yeah. Well, sure. That'd be part of it. In fact, that was -- if you take a look at our provision increase quarter over quarter, that was largely driven by the loan growth that we saw. So that comes along with loan growth. These tend to be -- and what we've seen tend to be higher credit quality, so it's not as much, but I would expect provision expense to go up with the growth in loans.

是的。嗯，當然。那會是其中一部分。事實上，如果你看我們提存費用（provision）季對季的增加，那主要就是由我們看到的貸款成長所驅動。所以貸款成長就會伴隨提存。這些通常——而我們看到的通常是較高的信用品質，所以金額不會那麼多，但我預期提存費用會隨著貸款成長而上升。

Okay. And then on ROTCE, any updated thoughts? I think you talked earlier about exiting the year at kind of an 18% ROTCE heading higher next year. Any updates there?

好的。那關於 ROTCE（有形普通股權益報酬率），有沒有更新的看法？我想你先前提到年底大概會在 18% 的 ROTCE，明年會再往上。這部分有更新嗎？

No, same what we said back in January. Just to remind everybody, we finished the fourth quarter of '25 at approximately 18% ROTCE. That was elevated a little bit by the tax reserve release in the quarter.

沒有，跟我們一月說的一樣。提醒大家一下，我們在 25 年第四季結束時，ROTCE 大約是 18%。那一季因為稅務準備金回沖（tax reserve release），所以稍微被墊高了一點。

And then what we said, and we still believe, we're going to go down during '26 because of the FirstBank acquisition and the impact on that. Then, when we deliver everything that we intend to deliver in '26 along our guidance, we'll be back to that approximately 18% in the fourth quarter of '26. But the really important part is we would expect to drift higher as we go into '27. And that's, yeah, still the plan.

然後我們說過、而且我們仍然相信，26 年會因為 FirstBank 的收購及其影響而往下。接著，當我們在 26 年依照指引交付我們打算交付的一切之後，我們會在 26 年第四季回到大約 18%。但真正重要的是，我們預期進入 27 年時會逐步走高。對，這仍然是計畫。

Got it. And that's just a function of operating leverage and growth next year in terms of moving higher?

了解。所以明年往上主要就是營運槓桿與成長帶動的結果？

Yeah, that's right.

對，沒錯。

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

好的。了解。謝謝。

You bet.

不客氣。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. With that, I would like to turn the floor back over to Bryan Gill for closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。接下來，我想把時間交回給 Bryan Gill 做結語。

Well, thank you all for joining our call today and for your interest in PNC. And please feel free to reach out to the IR team if you have any additional questions.

好的，感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，也感謝各位對 PNC 的關注。如果各位還有任何其他問題，歡迎隨時聯繫投資人關係（IR）團隊。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

各位女士、先生，謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。此時您可以掛斷電話線路，祝您今天剩下的時間愉快。