PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning; my name is Tommy and I will be your conference operator today.

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the PNC Financial Services Group earnings conference call.

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After these speakers' remarks there will be a question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions).

As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to the Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Bill Callihan.

Sir, please go right ahead.

Good morning and thank you, everyone, for joining our call.

Participating on this call are PNC's President, Bill Demchak.

As many of you know, Bill will be elected CEO at our annual meeting later this month.

Also on this call is Greg Johnson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information.

Actual results and future events could differ, possibly materially, from those anticipated in our statements and from our historical performance due to a variety of risks and other factors.

Our forward-looking statements regarding PNC's performance assume a continuation of the current economic environment and do not take into account the impact of potential legal and regulatory contingencies.

Information about such factors, as well as GAAP reconciliation and other information on non-GAAP financial measures we discuss, is included in today's conference call, earnings release and related presentation materials and in our 10-K and other various other SEC filings and investor materials.

These are all available on our corporate website, PNC.com, under the Investor Relations section.

These statements speak only as of April 17, 2013 and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Bill Demchak.

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everybody.

I will open today with some brief thoughts about the first quarter and progress that we are making against our strategic priorities, then I will turn it over to Rick to run you through the results and then we will take your questions at the end.

Rick reminded me that it has been about eight years since I last joined you on this call and I am thrilled to be back and I'm honored and excited to be stepping into the role of CEO at PNC later this month.

Jim obviously guided PNC through not only an historic economic crisis but at the same time he led us through some of the most rapid growth in our Company's history.

And I would tell you that I am grateful and I know we are all grateful for his friendship and his leadership.

Turning to this morning's announcement, we had a great first quarter.

We reported first-quarter net income of $1 billion or $1.76 per diluted common share with a return on average assets of 1.34%.

Our diversified businesses delivered solid revenue despite what was frankly weaker lending in the quarter.

It was slower than what we saw in the fourth quarter when businesses were rushing to get deals booked before new tax rates could take effect.

Having said that we still grew loans.

It just wasn't at the pace that we saw in the fourth quarter and it remains to be seen as we go forward whether the slower first quarter activity is simply seasonal or a reflection of what the market is going to look like for the year ahead.

Now let me jump to our strategic priorities and just give you a quick update of where things are headed here.

We continue to make good progress towards our goal of building a leading financial services franchise in the Southeast.

It has been just over a year since we closed RBC and from what we have seen today we feel pretty good about our decision to expand in the Southeast.

While it is still early in the game I can tell you that out of the gate activity is good and it is better than we expected across all of the businesses and markets.

Our brand recognition across the Southeast has nearly doubled from 28% before the RBC Bank conversion to more than 50% today.

Our teams in wealth and C&IB are largely in place and our focus has moved from integration to winning and building new relationships.

To give you an idea in the first quarter in the Southeast we added 9000 new DDA households in retail, 76 new primary wealth clients which may not sound like a lot but you have got to remember we didn't have a single wealth employee in the Southeast a year ago.

We also added 144 new primary clients in the corporate bank.

In our Southeast loan book in the corporate bank grew at nearly a 20% annualized rate in the first quarter despite continued runoff in the non-core loans that we acquired.

Clearly this is a lot faster then what we are seeing in PNC's legacy markets.

All of that said we are not underestimating the challenges of this expansion add the time and the patience that it is going to take to get it right.

We will update you as we go forward on our progress in the Southeast but we are certainly encouraged by the early wins and encouraged by the market's receptivity to PNC.

In our wealth business, AMG, we also had a terrific first quarter accelerating the pace of new primary client acquisition by more than 50% a year over year.

You have heard us repeatedly talk about our efforts to capture more of our clients' investable assets and our investing in retirement cross-sell effort is really gaining traction.

AMG cross sell revenues from retail and C&IB increased by more than 20% in linked quarter and 70% year-over-year.

AMG also achieved all-time high assets under administration of $236 billion and assets under management of $118 billion.

Mortgage business also had a good first quarter, though I would tell you our origination performance didn't meet our expectations.

Origination volumes for the industry were obviously down.

And while our volumes remained essentially flat, stable, we were expecting growth given the momentum that we carried into the end of last year and we didn't see that.

It is worth noting though that there were no surprises on repurchase reserves and we do like our sales momentum.

In retail we have talked with you lately about our work to leverage new distribution and transaction channels that better align with our customers' preferences while at the same time lowering our cost to serve.

And while it is still early, I am pleased with the progress we are making.

To give you an idea, in Southwestern Pennsylvania, this is our first market to be fully outfitted with the new image enabled ATMs.

And there we see consumer tally deposits are down 17% if you go Feb to Feb and despite a 2.25% growth in actual customers, so a big change.

At the same time we have been pretty public about our plans to close up to 200 branches and to open others where it makes sense to do so.

We actually added customers this quarter while closing 30 branches in the first quarter.

If we look at corporate wide expenses, and recognizing the environment that we are in, I am very pleased with the commitment of our senior management team and managers throughout the organization to discipline expense management.

PNC has long been good at continuous improvement, but it is a new environment and throughout the organization there is a new attitude about expenses and a realization that we still have room for improvement.

And while we might not be able to maintain quite the pace we set in the first quarter, we are in an excellent position to achieve our expense management goals for the year and that is probably a good place for me to turn it over to Rick.

Thank you, Bill, and welcome back.

Good morning, everyone.

Let me begin with our balance sheet on slide 4. Total assets declined by $4.3 billion or 1.4% on a linked quarter basis as we reduced cash on deposits with the Federal Reserve and we did not replace prepayments on our securities portfolio.

In addition, loan growth slowed in the first quarter as spot loan balances increased $650 million compared to year end.

In the first quarter we have seen more transactions move to the capital markets and away from bank balance sheets.

It remains to be seen if this is an aberration or a trend, although we did see some modest improvements in our pipeline in March and early April.

Commercial loan growth was the driver of our increase in total loans.

Total commercial lending increased by $1.4 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 as a result of specialty lending businesses including public finance, asset-based lending and commercial real estate.

Consumer loans declined in the first quarter primarily due to pay downs of residential real estate, credit card and education loans.

First-quarter transaction deposits decreased by approximately $1.3 billion on a spot basis compared to the fourth quarter primarily due to the seasonally high year-end corporate deposits which exited the Bank in the first week of January.

However, on an average basis first-quarter transaction deposits grew by $3.1 billion on a linked quarter basis reflecting our growth in customers and their liquidity.

Shareholders' equity increased by $660 million or approximately 2% in the first quarter primarily due to retained earnings.

As a result we ended the first quarter with strong capital ratios.

Our Tier 1 common ratio at the end of the first quarter is estimated to be 9.8%, that is up 20 basis points since the end of the fourth quarter.

Our Basel III Tier 1 pro forma common capital ratio was estimated to be 7.9% as of March 31, 2013 without the benefit of phases.

This reflects growth in retained earnings and a reduction in risk weighted assets.

The reduction in risk weighted assets can be attributed to enhanced modeling, processes and greater clarity regarding the rules.

We will continue to enhance our process and estimates as we enter parallel run in January 1 of this year.

However, at this level we have narrowed the gap and are close to the lower end of our operating range for Basel III.

We continue to believe we will be well-positioned to return additional capital to shareholders in 2014.

Now turning to our income statement on slide 5, we have produced nearly $4 billion in revenue in the first quarter and expenses of $2.4 billion were better than planned.

This resulted in pre-tax pre-provision earnings of approximately $1.6 billion, an increase of 26% compared to the fourth quarter of last year and 22% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Now overall credit trends remain positive.

Consistent with our guidance, our provision for the first quarter was $236 million which was down $82 million from the fourth quarter of last year as a result of overall credit quality improvement.

And you will recall our provision in the fourth quarter was $318 million which included $53 million due to the implementation of regulatory guidance for loans discharged from bankruptcy.

Looking ahead to the second quarter we expect the provision to remain between $200 million and $300 million.

Overall this quarter resulted in more than $1 billion in net income and $1.76 per diluted common share.

Our return on average assets for the quarter were 1.34%, an increase of 39 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

Overall these are great results to start the year, but, as I will explain further, this level of earnings may not be sustainable in this challenging environment.

Let me take a moment to discuss the impact of loan growth on our net interest income on slide 6. Average interest earning assets increased by $2.5 billion on a linked quarter basis due to average loan growth of approximately $2.9 billion or 1.6%.

Compared to the same quarter a year ago average interest earning assets were up $18 billion or 8% as a result of a $21.5 billion or 13% increase in average loans.

Now comparing the first quarter to the fourth, core net interest income remained stable while scheduled purchased accounting accretion decreased as expected.

However, cash recoveries on impaired commercial loans remained stable resulting in a less than 2% decline in net interest income, better than expected.

When comparing to the prior year quarter net interest income increased $98 million or 4% primarily due to a 6% growth in core net interest income due to loan growth and a stable net interest margin.

As you can see from the graph on slide 6, overall net interest margin contracted by 4 basis points on a linked quarter basis while core margin held steady at 3.43%.

Now looking to the second quarter, we are once again expecting a 2% to 3% decline in net interest income compared to the first quarter due to a decrease in scheduled purchased accounting accretion and lower expected cash recoveries.

For the full year we now expect purchase accounting accretion to decline by approximately $350 million versus 2012 while core net interest income is expected to increase modestly from 2012 to 2013.

As you can see on slide 7, total non-interest income declined by $79 million or 5% in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter results.

When you adjust for the provision for residential mortgage repurchase obligations and the fourth-quarter gain on the sale of VISA shares non-interest income declined even further.

This decrease was driven by a reduction of almost $100 million in revenue on capital market activities such as M&A, loan syndications and customer derivatives activities.

The fourth-quarter performance at capital markets was exceptionally strong and lower than expected lending activity in the first quarter contributed to the quarter-to-quarter decline.

Residential mortgage banking revenue also declined primarily due to lower loan sales revenue below our expectations, partially offset by higher net hedging gains on mortgage servicing rights.

On the other hand, we had steady growth in asset-management and consumer service fee categories.

The diversification of our businesses resulted in non-interest income to total revenue remaining steady at 40% in the first quarter.

Total non-interest income increased $125 million or 9% from a year ago due to a $114 million or 10% increase in fee income primarily driven by gains in corporate, consumer and deposit services and asset management fees.

This year-to-year comparison reflects progress we have achieved in customer growth and in our efforts to deepen customer relationships.

We continue to expect that full-year total reported revenue will increase in 2013 compared to 2012.

Now turning to slide 8, first-quarter expenses decreased by $434 million as every category declined on a linked quarter basis.

This performance clearly exceeded our expectations.

The decline included lower expenses related to selected items such as lower residential mortgage foreclosure-related expenses and no charges related to trust preferred securities redemptions, goodwill impairments or integrations.

We also saw lower marketing costs and reduced incentive compensation expenses primarily related to lower capital market activities.

As I have said before, we are looking to achieve a total of $700 million in cost savings.

These dollars are being used to offset investments we're making in our businesses and infrastructure.

Through the end of the first quarter we have captured approximately $500 million of annualized savings.

This gives us confidence that we will meet our full-year cost savings target.

Comparing first quarter to the same period a year ago, non-interest expenses were down $60 million or 2% reflecting prior-year integration costs and the benefits of our continuous improvement efforts offset by investments we have made in our strategic priorities including the full quarter impact of RBC Bank expenses.

For the second quarter we currently expect non-interest expenses to be 2% to 3% higher than the first quarter due to an expected increase in marketing expenses and up to $48 million in non-cash charges from calling trust preferred securities.

On a full-year basis I continue to expect reported expenses to decline by mid-single-digits on a percentage basis while I now expect core expenses, which exclude integration and trust preferred securities redemption charges, to be flat to down in 2013 versus 2012 due to our strong first-quarter performance.

Turning to credit quality on slide 9, credit trends in the first quarter were impacted as we align our regulatory guidance; that had the overall effect of increasing charge-offs by $134 million and non-performing loans by $426 million while reducing reported delinquencies by $395 million.

This included adoption of a policy to classify performing second lien consumer loans as non-performing when the first lien is 90 days or more past due.

While the credit metrics were impacted by this, underlying credit quality continued to improve in the first quarter.

Overall PNC posted strong financial results in the first quarter.

Looking ahead, certain first-quarter results may not be sustainable in the current environment.

For the second quarter we expect the following -- (inaudible) loan growth but at a slower pace than we had experienced in 2012.

We expect net interest income to decline by approximately 2% to 3% compared to the first quarter due to a decrease in purchased accounting accretion.

We believe expenses will increase by approximately 2% to 3% in the second quarter over the first quarter.

The provision should be in the range of $200 million to $300 million.

Finally, we expect continued progress towards the achievement of our full-year capital goals.

Taken together this is a very good quarter for PNC providing us with a strong foundation for future growth.

And with that Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

Operator, if you could give our participants the instructions please.

(Operator Instructions).

Erika Penala, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

Good morning.

My first question is just on some clarification on your guidance, Rick.

On the expense side you are now looking for core expenses to be flat to down.

Could you give us a sense at what base you are using for core for 2012?

And I'm getting a base of about $9.9 billion, is that correct (multiple speakers)?

I think that is -- that's very well done.

That is exactly right, Erika.

I would look at it as $9.9 billion; it is down from the $10 billion we gave you before because we had a beat of about $100 million in the first quarter.

Got it.

And just my second question is more on the capital deployment priorities.

Rick, I appreciate your comments that you are looking to return additional capital to shareholders in 2014.

And just to turn this question to Bill, clearly you are already a rounding error away from the low end of your range in terms of your Basel III goals, building goals for the year.

Could you give us a sense of what your capital deployment priorities are going to be for 2014?

Sure.

First and foremost, and we will say this every time you ask, we will focus our capital on client activity and growth in good quality loans where we are getting a return.

But beyond that we will have a focus on continued dividend return and increases in dividend and then, importantly, meaningful share buyback, which we have been out of the market for a couple of years.

But in 2014 we have been pretty vocal that we should have capacity and we will execute on that.

Beyond that, I will get the question at some point as to whether or not there are small banks we want to buy, so why don't we tackle that?

That would be pretty far down the list right now given the bet we already have in the Southeast that we need to execute on and the price expectations we see from some of the smaller banks.

So is the message there if there are any large foreign owned institutions that would be for sale in your footprint that would absolutely not be on your priority list?

My statement was pretty clear.

Okay, got it.

We have a lot on our plate and a lot that we can do organically and we are going to focus on that and execute on it.

And we have been doing just.

That we feel pretty good about it.

We feel good about capital return to shareholders in 2014.

Got it.

Thank you for taking my questions.

Paul Miller, FBR.

On the mortgage banking front you made a couple comments about -- that your production was a little bit lower than you had thought because of the momentum you had going into the first quarter.

Can you add a little color to that?

And also on your gain on sale margins which have held up pretty -- it was down from I think 4.80% to 4%.

Can you give say little guidance on where you those things are going to go in the next quarter or two?

This is Bill; I will take the front end of it.

I mean the momentum comment is simply that we grew originations quarter to quarter to quarter straight through last year as we added capacity.

And we felt pretty good about our ability to extend that, even though we had expected industry volume to decline.

We managed to hold it flat, but we didn't manage to extend it as competition for people frankly got pretty fierce and our ability to add the heads we expected just wasn't there.

Rick can tackle the margin question there.

The spread declined by about 16%, it was previously about 4.90%, we ended up this quarter about 4.10% in terms of the margin.

So that was what we were expecting.

I think what we didn't expect was the lower volume levels.

For the year we are looking at probably about a 3.50% average margin on this activity, but we will have to watch that and see how that plays out.

And I know HARP loans played a pretty decent part of your production last year.

I mean is that going down in percentages and do you expect that?

I mean where do you expect that to pan out over the year?

We had about 30% and we don't really see much of a change.

I mean with the extension we just continue to focus on the activity we have.

We are not expecting any big change in the percentage.

Because a lot of people talk about burn out -- some of the bigger shops thought that most of their HARP loans had burned out, but you think you still have got plenty of HARP stuff in your portfolio?

Part of -- you have got to remember, a big chunk of our focus has been on purchase loans.

And through the course of last year we actually didn't focus very aggressively at all on refinance even within our own portfolio because we want to build that purchase franchise.

So we may have a slightly different circumstance than some of the bigger guys.

Okay.

Thank you very much, guys.

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

Just a follow-up on some of the expense comments earlier.

I guess if you are already at a $500 million run rate in the first quarter and you are targeting $700 million by the end of the year, I think you have talked about closing another roughly 150 branches throughout this year and I would imagine there are some other back office areas that are being addressed as well.

So I guess why wouldn't we be at a higher run rate by the end of the year than the $700 million?

Well, you are naturally going to be at a higher run rate.

Keep in mind that is an annualized number so it really means we saved $125 million in the first quarter which we'll repeat through the other three quarters.

So that's your $500 million.

And the reason why you're there is you have got the momentum of the initiatives you had in the prior year, so they get the full year impact into the first quarter, you see that immediately.

The second thing is we have got a big benefit of almost $25 million in the first quarter in mortgage foreclosure, $25 million for the quarter and $100 million for the year.

So the fourth quarter -- it is going to be hard [sledding] to increase the number for the rest of the year, but we should easily get it to $700 million.

The one comment I would make, Matt, me won't declare victory is $700 million.

So we are going to get as much as we can get out the Company here and stay focused on it.

That is just kind of the number we have out there right now, but it is not a set in stone goal.

And then I guess on the flip side, the last couple of years you have talked about some continuous improvement in costs, but then a lot of it being reinvested.

And this year you have obviously said there will be less reinvestment versus a savings.

But just as we think about the pace of reinvestment throughout this year and beyond, are you getting to a point where it will be meaningfully less or is it going to continue that kind of $500 million range?

It is hard to look out very far.

I mean remember in the last year in particular as we built out the Southeast we had a lot of investment in people and facilities that caused last year in particular, now we carry that run rate forward, to be higher than it otherwise might be.

We also through time and we'll continue to spend on risk management initiatives as it relates to Basel II and CCAR and core infrastructure, but I don't know that we see that accelerating.

Matt, the only thing I would mention, if you recall when we talked about the full year $700 million, we had $550 million being invested, $150 million for unidentified items at the moment.

But we didn't need that portion of the $150 million in the first quarter, so we still have that $150 million in our full-year forecast.

I guess what I'm just trying to figure out is it seems like this year the core costs -- I mean you said flat to down, so maybe there was a downward bias this year.

I'm just trying to figure out if we will see net expense reductions again this year and next year if the revenue environment remains challenging, that is what I'm trying to get at.

Well, if the revenue environment stays challenging, and I expect it will, you are going to see us continue to focus on it.

We will see what the end result of that is.

But beyond kind of the comments that Rick has put out there on the $700 million in the flat to down, that is probably the best we can forecast at this point.

Yes, and I think, Matt, that we have positioned ourselves well for 2014 by keeping expenses pretty flat throughout the year, whereas in prior years we had an increase in expenses through the year and that automatically puts you at a higher level.

So we can't give guidance on 2014, but we are clearly positioning ourselves for the right actions.

Okay, thank you very much.

Keith Murray, Nomura.

Good morning.

Could we spend a minute on Basel III?

Would you guys be willing to give us a Basel III risk weighted asset number?

We haven't disclosed that yet and we have just chosen not to simply because we are just entering the parallel run January 1. So we have just chosen -- we have given you the ratio, we are going to continue to monitor that and continue to grow it.

And I think as we get more and more comfortable with modeling and some of the other conservative estimates we have made in the calculation then we will put it out at some point in the future.

Okay.

And you mentioned the benefit from enhanced modeling this quarter.

Do you see opportunities for further RWA mitigation?

Well, you know, it can go both ways.

I think that is what we have got to be careful of, but I think I am hopeful that we have been more conservative than not.

And obviously part of this, by the way, isn't just better modeling and so on, it's also the rules are changing.

And we have the market risk rule, you have the securitization rules and we refined our modeling on that.

So you had a number of items that we were able to refine this quarter to improve the risk weighted asset number.

But you have to go back and remember that we became a Basel II mandatory bank much later than most of the other people who had to report it.

So in our own internal numbers certainly early on our variance around our estimate was probably wider than we would have liked, which is why it took us a while to disclose it.

Through time we are just kind of narrowing the variance on that expectation.

But Rick is right, we would like to think that we are still conservative, but it could move both ways.

Thanks.

Then just switching to loan pricing and competition, are there particular areas, whether it is auto or commercial, that you are really seeing whether it is terms or pricing issues that concern you?

I could just answer yes to all of the above.

A couple of sound bites.

In the smaller balance stuff, so think business banking and commercial, it is interesting; the spread compression on this stuff has largely kind of stopped.

I mean it is down a couple quarter to quarter, and what we are seeing is actually extension in term and weakening structures to why we are losing deals on the small side where guys are going out 10 years from now.

You have seen in indirect auto the banks have been on fire and growing balances there.

We grew balances pretty aggressively last year.

We are reaching the point now where we are willing to give up volume here because the spread levels have kind of gotten down to the point where our returns on equity are basically at the margin.

In the larger commercial side where things need to be syndicated, let's leave out leverage loans for a second, things are -- they're tightening, but structures are still sane.

And if it needs to go to a handful of banks it is still decent value on that, still decent spreads on asset base, we have seen compression in real estate but thus far not to the point where I would be worried about it.

Perhaps starting to see some of that in multi-family projects that are coming on.

But it is getting tight.

People are chasing assets.

There is no yield on securities and they are going to chase loans.

It is not a surprise.

And what we do when that happens is we will gradually change our focus from new loan balances to cross sell and harvest all the new clients that we added over the last couple years which we are pretty good at.

Okay, thank you very much.

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

It is actually Ian Foley for Ken.

Just wanted to start off with the margin.

Could you kind of just walk us through the puts and takes over the next quarter and just what you have left in terms of margin events over the year?

We have given guidance that it will be down 2% to 3% primarily because of purchase accounting accretion.

Net interest income as supposed to margin.

I'm sorry.

For net interest income we have given guidance, but we don't typically give margin guidance, so I'm one not going to necessarily get into that.

Okay, but could you give just kind of what you have left in terms of CD repricing, debt calling, etc.?

Not a lot on the CD side.

I mean obviously all these CDs that we had priced in National City, they are gone, we finished all that repricing.

You did see overall cost of funds drop during the quarter at the same time we saw -- on the core at the same time we saw the interest-earning asset margin decline.

So we were able to keep the margins stable in this quarter, but we will run out of room clearly on the liability side at some point and as a result I would expect at some point the NIM continues to decline.

Okay.

And then a quick question on the corporate services line.

Just in terms of how it builds over the year; do you think that can get back over $300 million as time goes on?

Absolutely.

I think if you look back at the prior couple of quarters before that we were up at $275 million I think in the third quarter.

I think if we add customers and added activity I think we can certainly get it back up.

But a lot of it is going to have an impact on how much lending goes to bank balance sheets and how that affects some of the M&A activity, syndications and derivatives on the back end of that.

So we will just have to watch and see how the lending market progresses.

Okay.

Thanks, guys.

(Operator Instructions).

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

Coming back to the loan terms that you guys were just referring to; can you put that in context to what we saw in the 2006-2007 time period versus today?

Are you guys seeing terms and conditions that are as weak as they were back then or are they weaker compared to 2009?

Nothing is back to where it was in 2005 on a spread or structure side.

We are gradually grinding our way lower, but we are not through the threshold of where we would see for the most part still decent returns on credit and there are different pockets.

The commodity like corporate loan where there is nothing special about it and one bank can take it down without syndicating it, that is where you see most of the pressure or a stand-alone real estate loan CMBS market is back and putting competition into that.

The thing that we did well with all through last year and this quarter is our specialty lending activity, whether it is our asset base lending, some of the activities we have in real estate, our equipment finance activity, public finance, the securitization activity that kind of has left the capital markets and come back on balance sheet.

Our growth is coming from those areas which differentiates us and not so much where we are seeing the real strong competition in the plain-vanilla product.

But even the plain-vanilla isn't back to where it was in 2005 where it got pretty silly.

The second question is regarding, Rick, you just were talking about the corporate services -- the weakness in the quarter, could you go over again why it came in at $277 million versus where you are in the fourth quarter at $349 million?

It wasn't so much the weakness in the quarter as it was an outstanding fourth quarter.

I mean we had $70 million in the fourth quarter in M&A fees just to give you an idea, down to $16 million in the first quarter.

And typically that might run at about $20 million a quarter.

So marginally weaker in the first quarter is what I would say, it was really just a very strong fourth quarter.

Fourth quarter -- the pipeline kind of got cleaned out as people were racing ahead to get deals done prior to the uncertainty on what was going to happen with taxes.

And the one thing to remember about our derivative activity, it basically goes along with our new loan activity.

So we don't cover traders and hedge funds and so forth, we cover corporations and they hedge loans.

So when loan activity is robust and syndications are robust you will see our derivative income be the same.

Great.

And then finally, could you give us some more color on the decline in the consumer lending?

Was it primarily due to pricing or what are some of the factors there?

It's a different story in each bucket.

I think education lending is self-explanatory.

I think in card we just saw less utilization as we turn the year.

Some of that is seasonal.

Indirect grew but at a slower pace than we saw last year.

And the business banking area was kind of a wash between origination and runoff which we'll continue to see on the acquired books.

I guess home equity was more or less flat.

Thank you.

Moshe Orenbuch, Credit Suisse.

Okay, great.

Thanks.

So most of the things that I actually wanted to ask about expenses have been asked and answered, but going through the line of business stuff, I thought it was interesting in the mortgage business you had slightly down earnings relative to a year ago, but the capital doubled.

So the return on capital was down by two-thirds.

Can you talk a little bit about how you would envision that business getting to an acceptable return on capital?

We have guys scrambling through sheets here, so I'm not sure I can explain exactly what happened in the capital number.

I think the challenge for mortgage for us and everyone else obviously is that when the refi wave burns out it is going to be -- and you go towards that margins decline -- we are going to have to get expenses out of the business.

Ultimately long-term we believe that we can get a production level and an expense level that allows us to get a decent return out of that business.

But for us and everyone else there is going to be noise in between here and there as the business right sizes when the refi wave ends.

One other thing kind of in a related area.

We had had some discussions in the past about asset management and the investment process that you are making and the fact that your expenses are kind of growing at least roughly in lockstep with revenues in some quarters a bit higher.

Where do you stand in that and when can we see -- you had good numbers there but not seeing that operating leverage yet?

The breakeven on adds, and we continue to add and we'll add this year, is running what, Rick -- 18 months on average when we bring new people into a new market.

And we have history now to kind of prove that and roll forward and we see it in our sales momentum and growth, but it is going to take a while.

We fundamentally changed the focus we have on this business and want to materially change the size of the business, so we have invested in people to do that.

And we have changed the focus inside the Company to get the whole Company to sell the product in effect through referrals and we have seen great traction on that.

To be honest with you, we are really pleased with the fact that by and large we have been able to pay for it as we go along off of new revenue, which you think about the number of people -- I think we have added 300 plus client facing people for the last bunch of years and managed to hold things flat, that is a pretty astounding accomplishment.

Okay, great.

Thanks.

Mike Turner, Compass Point.

Good morning.

I just wanted to find out -- I know the new guidance on levered loans came out about three weeks ago and my understanding is that the guidance wasn't really all that changed from the initial proposals a year ago.

Maybe if you could comment on the impact of that new guidance, if you have seen any, if you have been complying with it, any color would be appreciated?

Guidance from where?

The Federal Reserve put out new guidance on levered loans, it was on March 19.

I would tell you we played such a tiny role side of that that it hasn't hit my radar.

The loan growth that you are seeing inside this Company certainly isn't coming from that space.

And to the extent we had loans that kind of looked levered or higher risk, they exist in our asset-based lending book and they aren't in the end because they are secured with a monitored borrowing.

So we don't really play in that space.

I suspect they have put it out -- I don't know what was in it, but I am sure they put it out because we have seen some pretty frothy terms in structure and price in the levered loan market, largely on the large corporate side which we don't play in either.

Okay, thank you.

Jack Micenko, SIG.

Good morning.

Bill, I think in a competitor conference a few weeks or a month ago you had expressed some confidence that mortgage trends in 2013 are going to be above 2012 and I think you pointed to some improvement in processes, talked about shrinking some closing times down pretty aggressively.

And then your comments today a little more cautious, but then you are talking about doing more on the purchase side.

Do you still feel confident the 2013 number is going to be above 2012, or have the recent trends changed your mind a little bit?

Trends have changed my mind a little bit.

I would tell you that our production numbers ought to be above 2012; you get there if you simply straight-line what we did in the first quarter, so that is not a heroic assumption.

The challenge is we see margin compress, and so total revenues -- it will be a fight to get them to be flat and so that is a change.

Frankly we kind of underestimated the degree of difficulty in adding mortgage originators as we got into this year.

The competition for people got really hot and when we basically faded off of paying that much money for new people into the Company.

But it ought to be -- at the end of the day it is going to be a good performance.

And the difference is immaterial to PNC, it is just it's a little worse than I had hoped and so I was wrong.

Fair enough.

And I think, Rick, and your comments you talked maybe about the pipeline for C&I building in April.

Is there anything -- if I heard you wrong correct me, but if that is the case is there any one industry or perhaps region that you can point to that is showing maybe some of that recovery in April?

The building I saw in March and April was off nothing in January and February.

But it is clearly in the specialty lending areas, as Bill mentioned before, whether that be commercial real estate, public finance, equipment leasing, commercial real estate and so on.

It is interesting, the big guys talking about market activity, they kind of said January and February were strong and March fell off and for us it was just the opposite.

Jan and Feb for middle market was really kind of scary, it was weak and March came back pretty strong as a sales month and that is kind of carrying here into April, but not at levels that are breaking records here.

Okay, thank you.

Terry McEvoy, Oppenheimer.

With the RBC deal closing over a year ago I was wondering if you could talk about branch or customer profitability in the newer Southeast markets?

I know you mentioned earlier the business wins in the first quarter, but are you starting to see higher products and services per customer and call it transitioning away from what some of the critics of the deal felt was a one product customer base?

Look, anecdotally I could tell you that we are growing, as you saw, from households to corporate clients to wealth clients and through the door and we are selling them more products.

We all have accurate metrics at this point.

As you think about the changes that are going on in that client base because we continue to run off loans that just aren't core to what we would want to hold as we grow new customers and then cross sell their existing customers that we do want to hold.

So progress is good anecdotally and we need to work on being able to come up with better metrics long-term.

Yes, I think to Bill's point, the best you can hope for in the first year of operations is to maintain balances flat to up and we have been able to increase our balances by about 6% in loans despite the runoff over the course of the year, so we are real pleased with that.

Great.

That was it on my list.

Thank you.

Todd Hagerman, Sterne, Agee.

Good morning, everybody.

The first question, Bill, just going back to some of your comments on auto, possibly kind of scaling back volumes in terms of as you related to margins if you will.

Just curious, as it relates to those volumes any impact or how you are thinking about the recent -- the noise coming out of the Consumer Protection Board as it relates to pricing, the upfront charges within that market?

Is that any impact on that?

It is a concern, but they are unrelated in terms of -- we are basically holding the price so that is going to cause volumes to decline, notwithstanding I guess March was kind of the best in five or six years in auto production.

But the CFPB's look through to dealers on disparate impact and whether or not dealers are charging unfairly the markup on top of our price, that will have to play out.

And it is something that we in effect are being asked to police.

And so I think the whole industry is waiting to see how that plays.

We of course try to monitor that with our dealers, but this is kind of unknown territory as to how it plays out and we are watching.

Okay, but for the time being it is not really affecting how you are looking at the business itself and again you focus on --?

It affects how we choose dealers, but it always has.

So in some ways the CFPB coming out and making this statement, I would like to think that we were pretty good in our dealer selection that we work with through history to take that sort of thing into account.

Okay, great.

And then just secondly, just in terms of credit, maybe Rick, just in terms of some of the noise with the policy changes in Q4-Q1.

The provision guidance has stayed relatively consistent the last several quarters, if you will.

How should we think about now in terms of the past news obviously getting better and so forth?

How should we think about in terms of the actual level of criticized assets, how that is trending in terms of the pace as well as the charge-offs on a go-forward basis after you strip out some of the noise?

I think you are going to continue to see improvements in the underlying credit quality statistics.

And we have been running -- if you take out the unusual adjustments -- around $300 million of charge-offs in a quarter.

I think that will continue to improve over time.

And I believe that still puts us in that $200 million to $300 million range as we are obviously seeing a faster pace of improvement on the commercial side that we are the consumer side, so as a result releasing some reserves on the commercial side.

Not yet ready to release a lot of reserves on the consumer side.

We still have a large pipeline of IOs, POs coming to maturity over the next five years or so.

And I think we have got to keep watching that to make sure that we keep funding our reserve levels to replenish the charge-offs that we are seeing.

Okay, great.

That is helpful.

Thank you.

Marty Mosby, Guggenheim.

Thank you.

I had (inaudible) kind of two sections, one was more just technically on you were talking about the $1.76 and not thinking that that would move lower as you kind of move forward.

You highlighted two things which was the increase in expenses related to marketing and trust preferred also (technical difficulty) on the NII.

The other thing I was wondering about was the tax rate was a little bit lower this quarter at around 24%, the past years have been around 27%.

Was that another item that would kind of go on that list that was favorable this quarter?

No, we were expecting about 25% and we got some isolated credits.

I think we had given guidance of 25% to 26%, got some isolated credits in the first quarter, which made us hit 24%.

So I think go back to 25%, you are fine there.

The other thing too is in the wording we say may not be sustainable.

We are not giving up on $1.76, but clearly with the trends of low rates on NII and further higher expenses it will be a challenge to keep it at that level.

And out of the 2% to 3% increase in expenses, how much of that would be related to the trust preferred expenses and (multiple speakers)?

The trust preferred could be anywhere from $15 million to $45 million, $48 million, somewhere in that range and also you've got marketing is going to go up.

We expect marketing to increase anywhere from $25 million to $35 million.

I think if you take each of those you get a range of between 2% to 3%.

Okay.

And then, Bill, just a general question to you.

As you are kind of taking the reins over now what are the things -- two or three things you are focused on as you begin to go through PNC and start to create the next direction here?

We have got to execute and we are not changing the direction we are going in.

We have got to execute on the Southeast and build that out to a sustainable size and turn it into look and feel like the rest of PNC's markets.

We continue on the wealth and investing initiative.

We continue to build a sustainable and profitable mortgage business.

And then long-term, and this is over years and years, is the rebuild and rethink of the retail business as it relates to changing profitability, changing demographics and changing technology.

We have got to get that right.

And then finally near-term the expense initiative that we have in the Company as we grind our way through what is a slower economy and low interest rates.

People shouldn't expect to see a change in direction of PNC beyond executing the bets we have on the table today and we are well set up to do that.

Thanks.

Matt Burnell, Wells Fargo.

Actually it is [Jason Harbs] on for Matt.

How are you?

Most of my questions have been asked and answered.

I just wanted to ask as far as the loan growth that you are expecting in the second quarter.

Geographically where are you seeing the greatest pockets of strength or, conversely, weakness?

And also by product -- is it going to be continued C&I that is kind of leading the growth?

Or just any color you can give us there would be appreciated.

It is pretty geographically dispersed.

I don't know that there is a particular region of the country that would stand out in terms of where growth is coming from.

And while it is bucketed inside of C&I, the growth that we are seeing in pure C&I is really an asset base lending, which while C&I related is kind of a specialty product and something that we have gained a lot of share and [incredibility] in, we have seen less growth in traditional corporate revolvers certainly in terms of utilization even though we've grown clients.

Real estate balances, Rick, you may have a better number.

But because we got into the projects early, three years ago, we will see balances grow simply through utilization increase as they finish out the projects.

And we continue to see balanced growth in equipment finance which is spread pretty much across the footprint as well.

I would say spot year-end 2012 to spot year-end 2013 we are looking at mid-single-digit loan growth which is driven primarily by the commercial side.

That is very helpful.

Thank you very much.

Operator, any other questions?

Yes, we do.

(Operator Instructions).

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

I forgot to ask a question on the issues with the regulators on the credit.

Was this something new or was this just a follow-up to what they did last year with some of the banks in terms of the second liens when the first lien was in trouble?

This is a follow-up.

We took the provision impact in 2012, but we were unable to operationalize the changes until the first quarter of this year in terms of the impact on charge-offs, non-performing loans, non-accruals and all of the things that have to take place with that.

So we are just catching up to be honest with you.

Okay, good.

And then the second part of the question -- I know you had talked, Rick, about the IOs and POs and the impact that may have on charge-offs and provisions as we go forward.

Can you guys talk about the new loans both -- primarily consumer I guess -- on what the credit behavior has been?

Because when you look at the monthly credit card delinquencies from the large issuers the credit card delinquencies are at incredibly low levels.

And then if you look at Fannie Mae's cumulative charge-off numbers and delinquencies for vintages of 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, they are very low.

Are you guys seeing that in your new business -- not the old IO/PO stuff, but what about the new originations over the last couple of years?

Are they trending better than expected on credit?

They are trending extremely well.

Is it better than expected?

I think it is certainly better than through cycle, which is probably true which is what you are seeing in all the other statistics as well.

The one place I would tell you that we are probably potentially even too conservative is in the card where we don't have enough people that revolve balances.

Our people are basically paying off their real high FICA and we can probably tend to take a little bit more risk there than we are doing today.

But the rest of it -- look, I think all the consumer delinquencies at this point are kind of below cycle levels at least as it relates to new production.

Great, thank you very much.

We have no further questions on the phones.

Thank you, everybody, for joining us and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

Thank you very much and this concludes today's conference call.

You may now disconnect your lines.

Have a great day, everyone.