菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收達 110 億美元,年增 7.6%(有機),調整後稀釋 EPS 年增 15% 至 2.20 美元,營運收入年增 11%
    • 維持 2026 全年營收、營運收入、EPS 指引不變,主因下半年將加大美國 ZYN 投入,預期全年總出貨量持平或小幅成長
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿中提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 國際 Smoke-Free 事業(IQOS、VEEV、ZYN)持續高成長,H1 Smoke-Free 有機營收年增 13.7%,毛利年增 16.9%
      • IQOS 在多數市場維持雙位數成長,市佔率穩定於加熱菸品類約 76%
      • VEEV 電子煙在歐洲市佔第一,H1 出貨量年增 72%
      • ZYN 在美國及國際市場持續擴張,推出多款新口味與劑量,並獲得 MRTP(減害認證)授權
    • 風險:
      • 日本、波蘭等市場因稅制調整與口味禁令,短期內影響 IQOS 成長動能
      • 美國 ZYN 類別競爭激烈,價格帶與新產品需持續優化以維持領導地位
      • 下半年將大幅增加美國行銷與商業投資,短期壓抑獲利成長
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總出貨量:Q2 年增 2.5%,H1 年增 0.4%
    • Smoke-Free 出貨量:Q2 年增 7.5%,H1 年增 8.3%
    • IQOS 調整後 in-market sales(IMS)量:H1 年增 8%,Q2 年增 5.1%,若排除日本、波蘭,Q2 年增 10.2%
    • VEEV(電子煙)出貨量:Q2 年增 55%,H1 年增 72%
    • ZYN 美國出貨量:Q2 年增 2% 至 29 億包,國際(不含北歐)H1 年增 32%
    • Combustible(傳統菸)Q2 出貨量年增 1.1%,H1 年減 1.9%,Q2 毛利年增 8%
    • 國際 Smoke-Free 毛利率:H1 年增 190bps 至 70%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年有機營收成長預估 5% 至 7%
    • 有機營運收入成長預估 7% 至 9%
    • 調整後稀釋 EPS(美元計)預估 8.26 至 8.41 元,年增 9.5% 至 11.5%
    • 全年營運現金流預估約 135 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 為何上半年表現優於預期但未上修全年指引?美國 ZYN 投資規模與內容為何?
      A: 主因下半年將大幅加碼美國 ZYN 行銷、產品組合與品牌活動(如新口味、ZYN ULTRA、When it clicks 行銷活動),把握 MRTP 認證與產品線擴充契機,維持 ZYN 領導地位。Q2 促銷較低,下半年將全方位推進。
    • Q: ZYN ULTRA 與低劑量新品的市場反應與定位?
      A: ZYN ULTRA 上市初期消費者回饋正面,市佔有提升但仍需觀察。1.5mg 低劑量產品主要吸引傳統吸菸者轉換,避免高劑量造成不適,期望帶動更多用戶進入品類。
    • Q: 日本 IQOS 受稅制調整影響,H2 展望與競爭態勢?
      A: Q2 受4月稅調影響,消費者短期調整,SENTIA 取代部分 TEREA 用戶,市佔維持高檔。10月還有一次稅調,預期波動但已度過最困難階段,未來幾年稅負壓力趨緩,有利價格策略。競爭者同樣面臨壓力,預期年底後市場格局更明朗。
    • Q: ZYN 價格帶優化是否僅針對 ULTRA?是否有助於帶動品類成長?IQOS 未來成長會更依賴價格還是量?
      A: ZYN 會持續以領導品牌定位,價格策略以兼顧量與利潤最大化為主,不限於 ULTRA。IQOS 目前仍以擴大用戶數為主,價格提升會隨品牌成熟逐步加大,但短期仍以量為主。
    • Q: 歐洲 IQOS 受口味禁令影響,未來成長動能與可持續成長率?
      A: 排除波蘭、匈牙利等受禁令影響市場,歐洲 IQOS 基本成長趨勢未變。已透過 DELIA、LEVIA 等新產品組合與多品類策略(如 VEEV、ZYN)分散風險並持續拓展市佔,預期成長動能可恢復。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International 2026 second-quarter results. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand it over to our first speaker, James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

    各位好,感謝您撥冗等候。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際(Philip Morris International)2026 年第二季業績說明會。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的電話會議將被錄音。現在我想把時間交給我們的第一位講者——投資人關係與財務傳播副總裁 James Bushnell。請開始。

  • James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer

    James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer

  • Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2026 second-quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for Smoke-Free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated today and on our Investor Relations website.

    歡迎各位。感謝您加入我們。今天稍早,我們已發布新聞稿,內含 2026 年第二季業績的詳細資訊。該新聞稿可於我們的網站 pmi.com 取得。術語表(包含無煙產品 Smoke-Free 產品的定義),以及本簡報所引用之非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調整項目、其他計算方式與與最直接可比之美國 GAAP 衡量指標的調節表,均載於公司今日提交之 Form 8-K 的 Exhibit 99.2,並可於我們的投資人關係網站查閱。

  • Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

    今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。請各位留意今日簡報與新聞稿中的前瞻性與警示性陳述揭露,以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述出現重大差異的各項因素。

  • I'm joined today by Emmanuel Babeau, Group Chief Financial Officer; and Massimo Andolina, currently Regional President for Europe, who will succeed Emmanuel as Group CFO in August. Emmanuel, over to you.

    今天與我一同出席的有:集團財務長 Emmanuel Babeau;以及目前擔任歐洲區域總裁、並將於 8 月接任 Emmanuel 出任集團財務長的 Massimo Andolina。Emmanuel,交給你。

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. I am pleased to report a very strong Q2 as we generated plus 8% organic growth in net revenue and plus 11% in operating income, driving plus 14% currency-neutral progression in adjusted diluted earnings per share to $2.20 or plus 15% in dollar terms. This better-than-expected delivery contributed to very robust H1 growth despite the tough comparison of the first quarter.

    謝謝你,James,也歡迎各位。我很高興報告第二季表現非常強勁:我們的淨營收有機成長 8%,營業利益有機成長 11%,帶動調整後稀釋每股盈餘在固定匯率下成長 14% 至 2.20 美元,按美元計則成長 15%。這項優於預期的表現,儘管第一季比較基期嚴峻,仍促成上半年非常穩健的成長。

  • Our Q2 results were once again powered by excellent performance as expected, from our International Smoke-Free business with high single-digit volume growth, double-digit top-line growth and impressive gross margin expansion. IQOS adjusted in-market sales volume increased by plus 5%, including expected transitory headwinds from the April excise increase in Japan and the characterizing flavor ban in Poland.

    我們第二季的成果再次如預期主要由國際無煙業務的優異表現所驅動:銷量呈高個位數成長、營收呈雙位數成長,且毛利率顯著擴張。IQOS 調整後的市場內銷售量成長 5%,其中包含日本 4 月調高消費稅以及波蘭禁止特徵風味所帶來的預期短期逆風。

  • Excluding these two markets, double-digit growth continued, reflecting the broad-based strength of our Smoke-Free business across markets. Our multi-category commercial approach continues to gain momentum supported by ZYN and VEEV.

    若排除這兩個市場,雙位數成長仍在延續,反映我們無煙業務在各市場的廣泛強勁動能。在 ZYN 與 VEEV 的支持下,我們的多品類商業策略持續加速推進。

  • Our Combustible performance was above our expectation in an especially strong quarter with growing volumes, very good pricing, stable category share, and gross profit growth. While we do not expect this delivery to be repeated to the same magnitude for the full year, such results demonstrate the robustness of our portfolio as we leverage our leadership in cigarettes to support the switching of legal head smokers to better alternatives.

    我們的可燃式產品業務表現也優於預期;在一個特別強勁的季度中,出貨量成長、定價表現非常良好、品類市占穩定,且毛利成長。雖然我們不預期全年能以同等幅度重現此一表現,但這些結果展現了我們產品組合的韌性:我們運用在紙菸的領導地位,支持合法吸菸者轉換至更佳替代方案。

  • In the US, we posted a significant sequential improvement in net revenues, gross profit, and operating company income compared to a challenging Q1. While the US nicotine pouch category continued to grow, ZYN offtake volumes were broadly stable to slightly growing versus the prior year, reflecting the uneven competitive landscape described in recent quarters.

    在美國,相較於充滿挑戰的第一季,我們的淨營收、毛利與營運公司收入(OCI)均呈現顯著的季對季改善。儘管美國尼古丁袋品類持續成長,ZYN 的終端銷售(offtake)量相較去年大致持平至小幅成長,反映我們在近幾季所描述的不均衡競爭態勢。

  • ZYN shipments increased by plus 2% to 2.9 billion pouches despite an inventory tailwind in the prior year, broadly reflecting offtake trends and the initial shipments of new variants including ZYN ULTRA. We are excited about this first phase of portfolio expansion with additional initiatives planned in the coming months to enhance and enrich our offering to legal-age American nicotine consumers.

    ZYN 出貨量成長 2% 至 29 億個尼古丁袋,儘管去年同期存在庫存順風因素;整體大致反映終端銷售趨勢,以及包含 ZYN ULTRA 在內的新口味/新規格的初期出貨。我們對這一階段的產品組合擴張感到振奮,未來幾個月也規劃更多舉措,以強化並豐富我們對美國合法年齡尼古丁消費者的產品供給。

  • Supported by a rich product pipeline and improving regulatory clarity, we believe it is the right moment to accelerate US investment in the second half of the year to support ZYN brand equity and portfolio expansion and to prepare for the future launch of IQOS ILUMA.

    在豐富的產品研發管線與監管清晰度提升的支持下,我們認為現在是適當時點,於下半年加速在美國的投資,以支持 ZYN 的品牌資產與產品組合擴張,並為未來 IQOS ILUMA 的上市做準備。

  • Overall, our strong first-half performance reinforces our confidence in our ability to consistently invest behind Smoke-Free growth opportunities while delivering another year of best-in-class top- and bottom-line growth.

    整體而言,我們上半年的強勁表現,進一步強化我們的信心:我們能持續投入無煙成長機會,同時再度交出同級最佳的營收與獲利成長。

  • Looking now at our Q2 financials, we delivered very good shipment volume growth of plus 2.5% and underpinned by continued momentum in IQOS and favorable Combustible dynamics. Organic net revenues grew plus 7.6% or more than 10% in dollar terms to reach over $11 billion in quarterly net revenues for the first time. This strong top-line performance translated into robust profitability.

    接著看第二季財務表現,我們出貨量成長 2.5%,主要受 IQOS 持續動能與有利的可燃式產品動態所支撐。淨營收有機成長 7.6%,按美元計成長超過 10%,季度淨營收首次突破 110 億美元。這項強勁的營收表現轉化為穩健的獲利能力。

  • Adjusted gross profit grew by plus 8.7% organically or plus 11.5% in dollar terms, driven by pricing, volume leverage and favorable Smoke-Free mix. Adjusted operating income grew close to plus 11% organically and plus 12% in dollar terms to reach $4.8 billion reflecting the same underlying business drivers and continued growth investments.

    調整後毛利有機成長 8.7%,按美元計成長 11.5%,主要由定價、規模效益(量的槓桿)以及有利的無煙產品組合所帶動。調整後營業利益有機成長接近 11%,按美元計成長 12% 至 48 億美元,反映相同的核心業務驅動因素以及持續的成長投資。

  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew by an impressive plus 15% to reach $2.20. This includes a $0.03 favorable currency impact, which was notably better than our previous forecast despite ongoing dollar strength. This was primarily due to a positive impact from unrealized transactional effect from deferred tax liability associated with a weaker Russian ruble.

    調整後稀釋每股盈餘大幅成長 15% 至 2.20 美元。其中包含 0.03 美元的有利匯率影響;儘管美元持續走強,該影響仍明顯優於我們先前的預測。這主要是因與俄羅斯盧布走弱相關、遞延所得稅負債所產生之未實現交易性影響帶來的正面貢獻。

  • This currency impact represents around one-third of the EPS outperformance compared to our prior forecast. The remaining two-thirds reflect a combination of SG&A phasing, as certain commercial investment previously anticipated in Q2 are not expected to occur in Q3, and the strong performance of our Combustible business, which I'll come back to.

    相較於先前預測,這項匯率影響約占每股盈餘超預期表現的三分之一。其餘三分之二則來自 SG&A 費用時點的影響(原先預期在第二季發生的部分商業投資,現預期不會在第三季發生),以及我們可燃式產品業務的強勁表現,我稍後會再說明。

  • Combining our Q2 and first-quarter performance, we delivered a very robust first half despite the comparison headwinds of Q1. Total shipment volumes increased plus 0.4% and as Smoke-Free growth outweighed Combustible declines.

    綜合第二季與第一季表現,儘管第一季比較基期帶來逆風,我們仍交出非常穩健的上半年成績。總出貨量成長 0.4%,因無煙產品的成長超過可燃式產品的下滑。

  • Organic net revenues grew by plus 5.3%, while adjusted operating income increased by plus 6.1% organically or plus 11% in dollar terms to reach $8.9 billion. Adjusted diluted EPS grew by plus 9.4%, excluding currency and by plus 15.6% in dollar terms, reaching a first-half record of $4.16.

    淨營收有機成長 5.3%,而調整後營業利益有機成長 6.1%,按美元計成長 11% 至 89 億美元。調整後稀釋每股盈餘(不含匯率)成長 9.4%,按美元計成長 15.6%,上半年創下 4.16 美元的紀錄。

  • The strength of our International business, which made up 93% of H1 group net revenues was naturally at the core of this remarkable performance. International Smoke-Free was again outstanding with H1 organic growth of plus 13.7% in net revenue and plus 16.9% in gross profit, driving gross margin expansion of plus 190 basis points to reach 70%. This primarily reflects continued IQOS growth with further enhancement from our other smoke-free category, especially VEEV.

    國際業務的強勁表現——其占集團上半年淨營收的 93%——自然是這項卓越成果的核心。國際無煙業務再次表現出色:上半年淨營收有機成長 13.7%,毛利有機成長 16.9%,帶動毛利率擴張 190 個基點至 70%。這主要反映 IQOS 持續成長,並進一步受其他無煙品類(尤其是 VEEV)的提升所助益。

  • Combustible also performed very well, exceeding our midterm trajectory of low single-digit organic top-line growth and low to mid-single-digit gross profit growth. An excellent Q2 with organic growth of plus 6.4% in net revenue and plus 8% in gross profit, driven by resilient volume and strong pricing enabled us to realize H1 organic net revenue growth of plus 3.8% despite negative geographic mix.

    可燃式產品業務同樣表現非常良好,超越我們中期所設定的低個位數有機營收成長與低至中個位數毛利成長軌跡。第二季表現優異:淨營收有機成長 6.4%,毛利有機成長 8%;在銷量具韌性與強勁定價的帶動下,使我們即便面臨不利的地理組合影響,仍實現上半年淨營收有機成長 3.8%。

  • H1 gross profit increased by plus 6.1% with margin expansion of plus 150 basis points to 67.7%, including the benefit of effective cost management. As a result, total H1 International net revenue grew by plus 7.4% and gross profit by plus 10.1% with gross margin expansion of plus 160 basis points to 68.6%. In turn, adjusted OCI increased plus 11.7%, all on an organic basis.

    上半年毛利成長 6.1%,毛利率擴張 150 個基點至 67.7%,其中包含有效成本管理帶來的效益。因此,國際業務上半年淨營收合計有機成長 7.4%,毛利有機成長 10.1%,毛利率擴張 160 個基點至 68.6%。進而,調整後營運公司收入(OCI)有機成長 11.7%。

  • Turning now to volumes, where total shipment growth returned to a positive trajectory in the second quarter with an increase of plus 2.5% and resulting in plus 0.4% growth for the first half. Smoke-Free shipments grew by plus 7.5% in Q2 and plus 8.3% in H1, mainly fueled by IQOS HTUs with notable contribution from Taiwan, Global Travel Retail and Italy.

    現在轉向出貨量,第二季總出貨量成長回到正向軌道,增加2.5%,使上半年成長達0.4%。無煙產品出貨量在第二季成長7.5%,上半年成長8.3%,主要由IQOS加熱菸草單元(HTU)帶動,台灣、全球旅遊零售與義大利貢獻顯著。

  • E-vapor shipments increased by a remarkable plus 55% in Q2 and plus 72% in H1 with Romania, Greece and Germany among the main drivers. Oral Smoke-Free volumes declined by 1.2% in the quarter, primarily reflecting industry declines and inventory impact for snooze in the Nordics despite a stable category share performance. This was partly offset by continued rapid nicotine port growth in international markets, excluding the Nordics and the return to shipment volume growth for ZYN in the US.

    電子霧化(E-vapor)出貨量第二季大幅成長55%,上半年成長72%,羅馬尼亞、希臘與德國為主要驅動市場之一。口含式無煙產品(Oral Smoke-Free)本季銷量下滑1.2%,主要反映產業下滑,以及北歐地區snus(口含菸)受庫存影響,儘管品類市占表現仍穩定。此影響部分被抵銷:北歐以外國際市場的尼古丁袋(nicotine pouch)持續快速成長,以及ZYN在美國出貨量恢復成長。

  • Q2 cigarette shipments increased by plus 1.1%, ahead of expectation. This reflects a combination of good category share performance, certain timing or comparison factors, and more favorable industry dynamic in certain large markets, predominantly where Smoke-Free products are banned or very small. Notable call-outs include Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, and relative resilience in India and Mexico.

    第二季紙菸出貨量成長1.1%,優於預期。這反映了良好的品類市占表現、若干時點或比較基期因素,以及部分大型市場較有利的產業動態,主要集中在無煙產品被禁止或規模很小的市場。值得一提的市場包括印尼、土耳其、埃及,以及印度與墨西哥相對具韌性的表現。

  • However, with industry volumes declining low to mid-single digit in more developed Smoke-Free market where the average unit economic of cigarette are more favorable, this generated an unfavorable mix impact on net revenue.

    然而,在較成熟的無煙市場中,產業量下滑幅度為低至中個位數,而這些市場的紙菸平均單位經濟效益較佳,因而對淨營收造成不利的組合(mix)影響。

  • For H1 overall, cigarette volumes declined by 1.9%. Given our Q2 performance and the latest industry dynamics, we now expect a more moderate full-year decline in our cigarette volumes of around 2% to 3% versus 3% previously, which remain consistent with the structural evolution of the category. Taken together, we now expect total shipment volume to be around stable to slightly positive for the full year with high single-digit growth in Smoke-Free product, broadly offsetting the decline in cigarettes.

    整體而言,上半年紙菸銷量下滑1.9%。鑑於我們第二季表現與最新產業動態,我們目前預期全年紙菸銷量下滑約2%至3%,較先前的3%更為溫和,仍與該品類的結構性演變一致。綜合來看,我們目前預期全年總出貨量約為持平至小幅正成長,無煙產品維持高個位數成長,基本可抵銷紙菸下滑。

  • Turning to our H1 top-line growth drivers. Pricing was the largest contributor, adding plus 5.9 points of growth, reflecting strong Combustible pricing of plus 9.2% with low single-digit monthly pricing, including around plus 3% and from IQOS. The positive mix impact from International Smoke-Free growth contributed a further plus 2 points as the increasing weight of SSPs continues to enhance our revenue profile.

    接著看上半年營收成長的驅動因素。定價是最大貢獻者,帶來5.9個百分點的成長,反映可燃式產品強勁定價(+9.2%),以及每月低個位數的定價貢獻,其中約+3%來自IQOS。國際無煙產品成長帶來的正向組合效應再貢獻2個百分點,隨著無煙產品(SSPs)的比重提升,持續改善我們的營收結構。

  • These drivers were partly offset by the US, which had a negative impact of 1 point, mainly due to Q1 comparison as well as International Combustible geographic mix and other factors, which reduced growth by 2 points. As a result, H1 organic net revenue growth reached plus 5.3%, while currency provided a tailwind of plus 4.5 points, bringing reported net revenue growth to plus 9.8%.

    上述因素部分被美國所抵銷,美國帶來1個百分點的負面影響,主要由於第一季比較基期,以及國際可燃式產品的地理組合與其他因素,使成長再減少2個百分點。因此,上半年有機淨營收成長達5.3%;匯率帶來4.5個百分點的順風,使報告口徑淨營收成長達9.8%。

  • The composition of our growth, once again, highlight the consistency and sustainability of our model with stable to growing volumes, durable pricing power and superior Smoke-Free economics continuing to be the primary drivers of our performance.

    我們的成長組成再次凸顯本公司模式的一致性與可持續性:出貨量持平至成長、穩健的定價能力,以及更優越的無煙產品經濟效益,持續成為我們表現的主要驅動力。

  • Moving down to H1 adjusted operating income margin, which expanded by plus 40 basis points organically or plus 60 basis points in dollar terms to reach close to 42%. Gross margin expansion remained a key driver, contributing plus 70 basis points, supported by strong pricing, favorable smoke-free mix, scale benefit and manufacturing productivity.

    再往下看上半年調整後營業利益率:有機口徑擴張40個基點,或以美元計擴張60個基點,接近42%。毛利率擴張仍是關鍵驅動因素,貢獻70個基點,受惠於強勁定價、有利的無煙產品組合、規模效益與製造生產力提升。

  • While SG&A costs were lower than expected in Q2 due to phasing, increased year-on-year investment in commercial initiatives, innovation and scale nonetheless reduced H1 margin by 30 basis points. We now expect higher SG&A costs in the second half than previously anticipated as we made the strategic decision to step up our US growth investments.

    儘管第二季因費用時點安排(phasing)使SG&A成本低於預期,但商業計畫、創新與規模相關投資的年增仍使上半年利益率降低30個基點。由於我們策略性決定加大美國成長投資,我們目前預期下半年SG&A成本將高於先前預估。

  • As we invest in our top line, we also delivered over $300 million of gross cost savings across COGS and SG&A in H1, keeping us firmly on track to achieve our $2 billion target for the 2024, 2026 period with a cumulative total above $1.8 billion to date.

    在投資營收成長的同時,我們上半年在銷貨成本(COGS)與SG&A合計實現超過3億美元的總成本節省,使我們穩步朝2024至2026年期間20億美元目標邁進;截至目前累計已超過18億美元。

  • This margin performance underscores the strength of our model as we continue to invest behind our smoke-free transformation while expanding profitability. As implied in our full-year forecast, we expect to deliver organic operating income margin expansion for the full year.

    此一利益率表現凸顯我們模式的強韌性:在持續投資無煙轉型的同時,仍能擴大獲利能力。如同我們全年展望所示,我們預期全年將實現有機營業利益率擴張。

  • Focusing now on IQOS, the driving force of our smoke-free and overall PMI growth trajectory. We continue to generate strong underlying growth despite transitory headwinds in Japan and the final EU flavor ban market implementation.

    現在聚焦IQOS——推動我們無煙與整體PMI成長軌跡的核心動能。儘管日本的短期逆風以及歐盟最後一批口味禁令市場的落地實施,我們仍持續創造強勁的基本面成長。

  • Adjusted in-market sales volume grew by plus 8% in the first half despite these dynamics, reflecting broad-based global momentum. The moderation in Q2 growth to plus 5.1% primarily reflect expected volatility in Japan as Q1 pantry loading reversed and consumers adjusted to the excise-driven price increase on April 1. Excluding Japan and Poland, Q2 growth was strong at plus 10.2% or over plus 11% for H1, consistent with recent history.

    在上述因素下,上半年調整後終端市場銷量(in-market sales)仍成長8%,反映全球動能廣泛且扎實。第二季成長放緩至5.1%,主要反映日本如預期出現波動:第一季的囤貨效應(pantry loading)回吐,以及消費者因4月1日因消費稅調升帶動的漲價而進行調整。若排除日本與波蘭,第二季成長仍強勁,達10.2%;上半年則超過11%,與近期趨勢一致。

  • Strong Q2 performance in more established IQOS markets, such as Italy, Greece and Romania was complemented by continued momentum in newer markets, including Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, Mexico and in Taiwan, which maintained its impressive trajectory with offtake volume growth growing double digit on a sequential basis as we progressively expand distribution. Global Travel Retail also delivered double-digit adjusted IMS growth.

    在較成熟的IQOS市場(如義大利、希臘與羅馬尼亞)第二季表現強勁,同時新興市場亦延續動能,包括沙烏地阿拉伯、菲律賓、墨西哥與台灣;台灣在我們逐步擴大通路覆蓋下,銷售拉動量(offtake)以序列基礎呈現雙位數成長,維持亮眼軌跡。全球旅遊零售亦繳出雙位數的調整後IMS成長。

  • In tandem, we are driving strong commercial execution and ongoing innovation across our device and consumable portfolio with the remix special edition shown on this slide as one example. We also continue to expand our alternative heating technology bonds by IQOS which was launched in Poland, Czech Republic and Morocco this quarter with encouraging early results.

    同時,我們在裝置與耗材產品組合上持續推動強勁的商業執行與創新;本頁投影片所示的Remix特別版即為一例。我們也持續擴展IQOS的替代加熱技術「BONDS by IQOS」,本季已在波蘭、捷克與摩洛哥上市,初期成果令人鼓舞。

  • The fundamental of IQOS remains strong. We continue to benefit from formidable brand equity, deep consumer connection, and an unparalleled commercial presence across a broad and diversified geographic footprint. And we maintain our global share of the fast-growing heat-not-burn category at approximately 76% in H1. This was further illustrated by the recognition of IQOS for the first time among the top 100 most valuable global brands according to Kantar.

    IQOS的基本面依然強勁。我們持續受惠於強大的品牌資產、深厚的消費者連結,以及在廣泛且多元的地理版圖中無可匹敵的商業佈局。上半年我們在快速成長的加熱不燃燒(heat-not-burn)品類中的全球市占約為76%。Kantar亦將IQOS首次評選為全球最具價值品牌前100名之一,進一步印證上述成果。

  • Looking at IQOS offtake share performance, we continue to drive impressive progress across key cities globally, an important lead indicator of broader national adoption. In Q2, we recorded further strong share gains across established IQOS markets, including Greece, Italy, Romania and the UK, alongside Global Travel Retail.

    就IQOS的銷售拉動市占(offtake share)表現而言,我們在全球關鍵城市持續取得令人印象深刻的進展;城市層級是更廣泛全國採用的重要領先指標。第二季,我們在既有IQOS市場(包括希臘、義大利、羅馬尼亞與英國)以及全球旅遊零售,均再度錄得強勁的市占提升。

  • We are also seeing very good momentum in emerging IQOS markets, notably Mexico, Indonesia and Taiwan, with Taipei's share of around 8% in a seasonally higher total market for cigarettes. These results reflect our strong commercial execution as well as the increasing presence and scale of IQOS in more established markets, combined with excellent early adoption in newer markets, reinforcing our confidence in the long-term growth trajectory.

    我們也在新興IQOS市場看到非常好的動能,尤其是墨西哥、印尼與台灣;其中台北市占約8%,且當季紙菸總市場具季節性較高水準。這些成果反映我們強勁的商業執行力,以及IQOS在較成熟市場的能見度與規模持續提升,並結合新市場的優異早期採用,進一步強化我們對長期成長軌跡的信心。

  • In e-vapor, VEEV continued to deliver excellent results with H1 shipment growth of plus 72% in and very good progression on financial metrics, including profitability. This reflects robust growth across the European market, reinforcing VEEV leadership position.

    在電子霧化方面,VEEV持續交出優異成果,上半年出貨量成長72%,且財務指標(包括獲利能力)亦有非常好的進展。這反映歐洲市場的強勁成長,進一步鞏固VEEV的領導地位。

  • VEEV is now the clear number one brand in Europe, both within close pod and for pods and disposable combined. And the estimated number one closed-pod brand in Global Travel Retail, where VEEV is present, all ahead of long-established players. This is supported by the structural evolution of the category with closed pods now representing the predominant format internationally, excluding illicit and open system.

    VEEV目前已是歐洲明確的第一大品牌,無論在封閉式煙彈(closed pod)領域,或在「煙彈與一次性產品合計」的口徑下皆居首位。此外,在VEEV已進入的全球旅遊零售市場中,VEEV亦被估計為第一大封閉式煙彈品牌,領先長期深耕的競爭者。此一表現亦受惠於品類的結構性演變:在國際市場(不含非法與開放式系統)中,封閉式煙彈如今已成為主流形式。

  • High levels of consumer retention and brand loyalty underpin our performance, supported by responsible innovation and continued portfolio enhancement. This includes the progressive rollout of our latest technology, VEEV ONE PLUS, which offers an elevated consumer experience through a compact premium design, a swap and store functionality, enabling two pods in one device, and a longer-lasting replaceable battery.

    高水準的消費者留存與品牌忠誠度支撐了我們的業績表現,並由負責任的創新與持續的產品組合強化所支持。這包括我們最新技術 VEEV ONE PLUS 的逐步推廣,其以精巧的高端設計、可交換與收納功能(使一台裝置可容納兩個煙彈),以及更耐用的可更換電池,帶來更升級的消費者體驗。

  • For ZYN, international shipment volume grew plus 6% in the first half or plus 32%, excluding the Nordics. ZYN continued to gain share in this small but fast-growing category, reaching more than 17% of the International segment excluding the Nordics in Q2.

    就 ZYN 而言,上半年國際出貨量成長 6%,若排除北歐則成長 32%。ZYN 持續在這個規模不大但快速成長的品類中提升市占,於第二季在排除北歐的國際事業部中占比已超過 17%。

  • We are seeing encouraging progress across a broad set of geographies, supported by portfolio expansion and consumer adoption as awareness and availability improve. This includes markets such as the UK, Pakistan, Poland, and Greece and the Philippines with further footprint and portfolio expansion plan in the second half.

    在一系列廣泛的地理市場中,我們看到令人鼓舞的進展,並受惠於產品組合擴張以及隨著認知度與可得性提升而帶動的消費者採用。這包括英國、巴基斯坦、波蘭、希臘,以及菲律賓等市場;下半年我們亦規劃進一步擴大覆蓋範圍與產品組合。

  • Zooming in on Europe, where we are now present in every market with smoke-free products following the Q2 launch of IQOS in Malta, which recently established a new regulatory framework for Smoke-Free product. Our multi-category portfolio drove strong growth with combined IMS up plus 8% in H1 and as ZYN and VEEV strength and complement IQOS, supporting growth, consumer acquisition, and long-term value creation.

    聚焦歐洲:在第二季於馬爾他推出 IQOS 後,我們現已在每一個歐洲市場皆提供無煙產品;馬爾他近期亦為無煙產品建立了新的監管框架。我們的多品類產品組合帶動強勁成長,上半年合計 IMS 成長 8%;同時 ZYN 與 VEEV 的優勢與 IQOS 形成互補,支持成長、消費者獲取與長期價值創造。

  • IQOS remains the core engine of our performance with adjusted IMS volume up by plus 5.1% in Q2 and plus 5.4% for the first half. We achieved this despite ongoing disruption in Ukraine and the impact of recent flavor ban in markets such as Poland and Hungary.

    IQOS 仍是我們業績表現的核心引擎,第二季調整後 IMS 銷量成長 5.1%,上半年成長 5.4%。即便烏克蘭持續受干擾,以及波蘭、匈牙利等市場近期口味禁令帶來影響,我們仍達成上述表現。

  • Excluding markets where the bank took effect in the prior 12 months, underlying IQOS adjusted IMS growth remained robust at around plus 8% for both Q2 and H1, reflecting momentum across the region. This includes excellent growth across a broad set of markets, including Italy, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Spain, supported by our innovation and commercial initiatives such as the broader rollout of DELIA, new variants of both TEREA and LEVIA, Special Edition devices and consumables, and collaboration with partners that share our commitment to innovation, reinvention, and transformation.

    排除過去 12 個月內禁令生效的市場後,IQOS 調整後 IMS 的內生成長在第二季與上半年皆維持約 8% 的強勁水準,反映區域動能。這包括在多個市場的優異成長,如義大利、德國、羅馬尼亞、保加利亞、希臘與西班牙;並受惠於我們的創新與商業舉措,例如更廣泛推廣 DELIA、TEREA 與 LEVIA 的新口味/款式、特別版裝置與耗材,以及與同樣致力於創新、再造與轉型的夥伴合作。

  • While VEEV is a global success, its biggest impact is in Europe where the e-vapor category is highly penetrated. H1 shipments grew plus 81%, and including impressive results in Romania, Greece and Germany. Similar to its total international progression, ZYN displayed dynamic ex Nordics growth of around plus 33% on as the category continues to gain traction.

    VEEV 雖是全球性的成功,但其最大影響在於歐洲,因為電子霧化品類在當地滲透率很高。上半年出貨量成長 81%,其中羅馬尼亞、希臘與德國的表現尤為亮眼。與其整體國際進展相似,ZYN 在排除北歐後的成長動能約為 33%,因該品類持續獲得更多市場牽引力。

  • In Japan, IQOS fundamentals remain strong despite expected volatility from pricing and timing effects. First-half performance was in line with expectations with adjusted IMS growth of plus 3.4%. Following an exceptionally strong first quarter, Q2 adjusted IMS declined by 3.4%, reflecting the reversal of consumer pantry loading ahead of the April 1 excise-driven price increase.

    在日本,儘管價格與時點效應帶來預期中的波動,IQOS 的基本面仍然強勁。上半年表現符合預期,調整後 IMS 成長 3.4%。在第一季異常強勁之後,第二季調整後 IMS 下滑 3.4%,反映消費者在 4 月 1 日因消費稅(菸稅)調整導致的漲價前進行囤貨,之後出現反轉。

  • Excluding this impact, underlying growth was around plus 1%. While this represented a moderation from recent quarters, the initial impact of consumer adjustment to the price increase was in line with our expectation. The April excise change requires the largest HTU price increase to date in Japan to pass on the tax, while there was no excise change for cigarettes.

    排除此影響後,內生成長約為 1%。雖較近幾季有所放緩,但消費者對漲價的初期調整影響符合我們的預期。4 月的菸稅變動要求日本迄今最大幅度的加熱菸草單元(HTU)價格上調以轉嫁稅負,而紙菸則沒有菸稅變動。

  • Despite implementing the largest increase in the market, IQOS adjusted category share held in the high-60s and adjusted IMS recovered nicely through the quarter to essentially match Q1 monthly volume, excluding pantry loading, a further testament to IQOS resilience.

    儘管我們實施了市場上最大幅度的調漲,IQOS 調整後品類市占仍維持在 60% 高段;且調整後 IMS 在本季內回升良好,若排除囤貨因素,月度銷量基本回到與第一季相當的水準,進一步印證 IQOS 的韌性。

  • Despite these factors, IQOS adjusted HTU share was stable at 31.8% in Q2 or up plus 0.9 percentage points, excluding pantry loading, supported by our tier portfolio with SENTIA playing an important role in capturing more price-sensitive TEREA consumers. Importantly, underlying demand remained robust. The heat-not-burn category continued to represent more than half of total nicotine offtake, and we expect this to continue growing over time.

    儘管存在上述因素,IQOS 調整後 HTU 市占在第二季仍穩定於 31.8%;若排除囤貨因素,則上升 0.9 個百分點。此表現受惠於我們的分層產品組合,其中 SENTIA 在吸引對價格更敏感的 TEREA 消費者方面扮演重要角色。更重要的是,內生需求仍然強勁。加熱不燃燒品類持續占總尼古丁銷量的一半以上,我們預期其占比將隨時間持續提升。

  • While the biggest step is behind us, we expect further category volatility in H2, notably around the excise change in October and would expect similar consumer behavior patterns, including pantry loading and subsequent normalization. We continue to target growth in IQOS adjusted IMS volume for the year overall.

    雖然最大的調整已經過去,但我們預期下半年品類仍將出現進一步波動,特別是 10 月的菸稅變動;並預期會出現類似的消費者行為模式,包括囤貨及其後的正常化。我們仍以全年 IQOS 調整後 IMS 銷量成長為目標。

  • Moving to the US where we delivered a sequential improvement of plus 38% in net revenue and plus 46% in adjusted gross profit compared to a challenging Q1. This largely reflects the plus 25% sequential growth in ZYN shipment and reduced sales promotion as we prepared for new product launches. On a year-on-year basis, segment net revenue declined by close to 1%, reflecting a decline in cigars and unfavorable phasing dynamic in the wellness business, while ZYN net revenue were broadly flat.

    轉向美國:相較於具挑戰性的第一季,我們的淨營收季比成長 38%,調整後毛利季比成長 46%。這主要反映 ZYN 出貨量季比成長 25%,以及在我們為新產品上市做準備之際降低銷售促銷力度。以年比來看,事業部淨營收下滑接近 1%,反映雪茄下滑以及健康業務的不利時點因素;而 ZYN 淨營收大致持平。

  • Gross profit was impacted by higher manufacturing costs mainly related to the ramp-up of new ZYN capacity in Colorado where full-scale commercial production began this month, reflecting our continued investment to support future growth. ZYN shipments returned to growth with an increase of plus 2% year-on-year to 2.9 billion pouches despite an inventory restocking tailwind of around 150 million pouches in the prior year. This growth is broadly in line with stable to slightly growing offtake volume and include some initial shipments of new variants in June, including the ZYN ULTRA range, which contains 20 pouches per can.

    毛利受到較高製造成本影響,主要與科羅拉多州新增 ZYN 產能的爬坡有關;該地本月已開始全面商業化生產,反映我們為支持未來成長而持續投入。儘管前一年約有 1.5 億袋的庫存回補順風,ZYN 出貨量仍恢復成長,年增 2% 至 29 億袋。此成長大致與穩定至小幅成長的終端銷量一致,並包含 6 月新口味/款式的初期出貨,其中包括每罐 20 袋的 ZYN ULTRA 系列。

  • Looking to the second half, we expect the dynamism of ZYN to be enhanced by our expanding portfolio and increased commercial activity, which I'll come back to shortly. However, it is important to note that volume comparison in Q3 will be impacted by the one-off promotional activity in September of last year, which accounted for around 250 million pouches.

    展望下半年,我們預期隨著產品組合擴張與商業活動增加,ZYN 的成長動能將進一步增強,我稍後會再回到這點。然而,需要注意的是,第三季的銷量比較將受到去年 9 月一次性促銷活動的影響,該活動約占 2.5 億袋。

  • Importantly, ZYN remains the clear premium leader of the nicotine pouch category with a retail value share of around 57%. As discussed in prior disclosures, recent category recent share performance has been impacted by both competitive gaps in the growing higher strength segment, including most product and in certain flavor segment as well as an elevated price premium.

    重要的是,ZYN 仍是尼古丁袋品類中明確的高端領導者,零售價值市占約 57%。如先前揭露所述,近期品類市占表現受到多項因素影響,包括在成長中的高強度區隔存在競爭缺口(包含 most 產品)以及在部分口味區隔的缺口,另亦受到較高的價格溢價影響。

  • With improving regulatory clarity and operational readiness, we have now taken the first step to address this with additional variants. This started with the launch of ZYN ULTRA in 9- and 11-milligram most variance at a lower per pouch price than the ZYN flagship range of dry pouches, reducing the price premium to the closest competitor while maintaining a clear premium position alongside targeted addition to our flagship flavor range.

    隨著監管明確性提升與營運準備就緒,我們已透過增加新口味/款式邁出第一步以因應上述情況。我們首先推出 ZYN ULTRA,提供 9 毫克與 11 毫克的 most 口味/款式,且每袋價格低於 ZYN 旗艦乾式袋裝系列;在維持明確高端定位的同時,將相對於最接近競爭對手的價格溢價縮小,並針對旗艦口味系列進行有目標的補強。

  • These new variants are rapidly building distribution. And while early days, we are pleased by promising initial offtake trends and positive consumer feedback. As a related side, I would note that while scanner data typically provide a good directional indication of volume trend, it does not always fully capture the effective consumer price.

    這些新口味/款式正在快速建立通路覆蓋。雖然仍在初期階段,我們對於令人鼓舞的初步終端銷量趨勢與正面的消費者回饋感到滿意。另外我也要指出,雖然掃描數據通常能提供良好的銷量趨勢方向性指標,但未必能完全反映消費者的實際有效價格。

  • We plan further extension in the coming months, including the introduction of 1.5-milligram and 8-milligram dry format in Q3. Together, these launches will broaden our offering with an expanded range of strength and test profile, enabling us to better address the spectrum of legal-age consumer preferences and further strengthen our competitive positioning across segments.

    我們計畫在未來數月進一步延伸產品線,包括於第三季推出 1.5 毫克與 8 毫克的乾式規格。這些上市將透過擴大強度與口味輪廓的範圍來拓寬我們的產品供給,使我們能更好地滿足合法年齡消費者偏好的光譜,並進一步強化我們在各細分市場的競爭定位。

  • With such an exciting lineup of new products to complement the existing portfolio, we plan to accelerate our US investment in the second half. This includes a comprehensive commercial program across marketing, distribution, and in-store execution with the rollout of our major new brand campaign when it clicks, starting this month to support brand engagement and consumer relevance.

    在如此令人振奮的新產品陣容、可補強既有產品組合之下,我們計劃在下半年加速對美國的投資。這包括涵蓋行銷、通路與店內執行的全面商業計畫,並將於本月起在時機成熟時推出我們重大的全新品牌行銷活動,以支持品牌互動與消費者相關性。

  • We are also implementing commercial initiatives to optimize ZYN's premium positioning and enhanced consumer value perception. In addition, our US investment include preparation for the future launch of IQOS ILUMA subject to FDA action.

    我們也正在推動商業舉措,以優化 ZYN 的高端定位並提升消費者對其價值的感知。此外,我們在美國的投資亦包括為未來 IQOS ILUMA 的上市做準備,惟仍須視 FDA 的決定而定。

  • We also believe ZYN is well positioned from a regulatory standpoint, notably following the modified risk tobacco product authorization of 20 SKUs, making it the only nicotine pouch product with the designation and allowing us to market the claim using ZYN instead of cigarettes, puts you at a lower risk of mouth cancer, a disease, lung cancer, stroke emphysema and chronic bronchitis.

    我們也相信,從監管角度來看 ZYN 具備良好定位,特別是在 20 個 SKU 獲得「降低風險菸草產品」(modified risk tobacco product)授權之後,使其成為唯一獲此指定的尼古丁袋產品,並允許我們以 ZYN 而非香菸來行銷該主張:使用 ZYN 相較於吸菸,罹患口腔癌、(某種)疾病、肺癌、中風、肺氣腫與慢性支氣管炎的風險較低。

  • This further reinforces its differentiated and sustainable positioning, supporting consumer trust and long-term growth potential. Overall, we remain confident in the long-term trajectory of ZYN and the US nicotine pouch category, supported by strong legal-age consumer demand and the investment we are making in responsibly commercializing a significantly enhanced product range for long-term leadership.

    這進一步強化其差異化且可持續的定位,支持消費者信任與長期成長潛力。整體而言,我們仍對 ZYN 以及美國尼古丁袋品類的長期走勢充滿信心,這得益於法定年齡消費者的強勁需求,以及我們為負責任地商業化顯著升級的產品組合、以實現長期領導地位所進行的投資。

  • Finally, moving to Combustible, where our business delivered a particularly strong Q2 performance. In addition to the favorable volume trajectory I described earlier, this was driven by a pricing variance of plus 9.2% on in the first half or almost plus 10% in Q2 with notable contribution from markets, including Turkey, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Mexico.

    最後,談到可燃式產品(Combustible),我們的業務在第二季交出特別強勁的表現。除了我先前所描述的有利銷量走勢之外,這也受惠於上半年價格差異(pricing variance)達 +9.2%,或第二季接近 +10%,其中包括土耳其、印尼、菲律賓與墨西哥等市場的顯著貢獻。

  • While we expect some moderation in H2 due to planning factors and annualization, we now forecast a pricing variance of more than 7% for the full year, although we expect this additional benefit will be largely offset by a more adverse geographic mix as volumes skew more to market with lower per unit revenues.

    雖然我們預期下半年因規劃因素與年化效應而會有所趨緩,但我們目前預測全年價格差異將超過 7%;不過,我們預期這項額外利多將在很大程度上被更不利的地理組合所抵銷,因為銷量將更偏向單位收入較低的市場。

  • Despite such strong pricing, our portfolio maintained its international category share at 25.3% in Q2 with Marlboro, again, demonstrating the strength of its premium brand equity, matching its record high of 11%. This combination of pricing power, brand leadership and disciplined execution translated into robust profitability with International Combustible gross profit growing by plus 6.1% in organic terms and by an impressive plus 8% in Q2.

    儘管定價如此強勁,我們的產品組合在第二季仍維持其國際品類市占率於 25.3%,而 Marlboro 再次展現其高端品牌資產的實力,市占達到其 11% 的歷史高點。這種定價能力、品牌領導地位與紀律執行的組合,轉化為強勁的獲利能力:國際可燃式產品毛利以有機口徑成長 +6.1%,且在第二季更達到令人印象深刻的 +8%。

  • Our Combustible business continues to demonstrate the strength of its model, delivering solid top- and bottom-line growth while supporting the ongoing expansion and increasing profitability of our Smoke-Free portfolio.

    我們的可燃式產品業務持續展現其商業模式的強韌性,在帶來穩健的營收與獲利成長的同時,也支持我們無煙產品組合的持續擴張與獲利能力提升。

  • This brings me to our outlook for the full year. With our International Smoke-Free business growing very strongly as expected and the Combustible business outperforming our prior expectations, we have additional capacity to invest while maintaining a best-in-class growth performance. The success of PMI is built on investing in the short term for long-term growth, just as we have with IQOS and indicates past Marlboro.

    接下來談我們對全年展望。隨著我們的國際無煙業務如預期般強勁成長,且可燃式產品業務表現優於先前預期,我們在維持同業最佳的成長表現之際,也有更多空間進行投資。PMI 的成功建立在以短期投資換取長期成長之上,正如我們在 IQOS 以及過往的 Marlboro 所做的一樣。

  • The defining characteristic of our company over the last 15 years is that as we invest, we also deliver strong growth and cash generation. For 2026, we continue to target organic net revenue growth of plus 5% to plus 7%; organic operating income growth of plus 7% to plus 9%; and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 7.5% to plus 9.5%.

    過去 15 年來,我們公司的鮮明特徵在於:在投資的同時,我們也能交出強勁的成長與現金創造。針對 2026 年,我們仍以有機淨營收成長 +5% 至 +7%;有機營業利益成長 +7% 至 +9%;以及以固定匯率計之調整後稀釋 EPS 成長 +7.5% 至 +9.5% 為目標。

  • In dollar terms, we now forecast a currency tailwind of around $0.15 at prevailing rates, translating into an adjusted diluted EPS range of $8.26 to $8.41, an increase of 9.5% to plus 11.5%. With an expectation of broadly stable to slightly growing volumes, we are also aiming for our sixth consecutive year of total volume growth.

    以美元計,我們目前預估在現行匯率下將有約 0.15 美元的匯率順風,對應的調整後稀釋 EPS 區間為 8.26 至 8.41 美元,增幅為 +9.5% 至 +11.5%。在預期銷量大致持平至小幅成長的情況下,我們也以連續第六年總銷量成長為目標。

  • For the second half, this implies a continued strong top line and an acceleration in organic operating income growth. Further robust international progression should be complemented by US momentum, notwithstanding a fairly even phasing of international HTU shipments through the four quarters with shipment broadly in line with adjusted IMS for the full year.

    就下半年而言,這意味著營收端將持續強勁,且有機營業利益成長將加速。在國際市場持續強勁推進的同時,美國動能也應可形成互補;儘管國際 HTU 出貨在四個季度間的節奏相對平均,且全年出貨量大致與調整後 IMS 一致。

  • We also expect robust progress at the EPS level, while noting challenging H2 comparison on net finance costs and the effective tax rate. For Q3, specifically, we expect HTU shipment volume of around 41 billion units against a strong Q3 '25 when HTU shipment grew by 15.5%, we thus expect mid-single-digit International Smoke-Free organic net revenue and gross profit growth.

    我們也預期 EPS 層面將有強勁進展,但需注意下半年在淨財務成本與有效稅率方面的比較基期較具挑戰。就第三季而言,我們預期 HTU 出貨量約為 410 億支;相較於 2025 年第三季的強勁表現(當時 HTU 出貨成長 15.5%),因此我們預期國際無煙業務的有機淨營收與毛利將呈現中個位數成長。

  • For PMI, overall, we forecast mid-single-digit Q3 organic top-line growth with modest organic margin expansion. We target adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20 to $2.25, including an unfavorable currency impact of $0.08 at prevailing exchange rate. This also reflects the challenging tax rate comparison from Q3 last year. Finally, we continue to expect operating cash flow generation of around $13.5 billion, providing further flexibility to support both investment and continued attractive shareholder return.

    就 PMI 整體而言,我們預測第三季有機營收將呈中個位數成長,並伴隨溫和的有機利潤率擴張。我們的調整後稀釋 EPS 目標為 2.20 至 2.25 美元,其中包含在現行匯率下 0.08 美元的不利匯率影響。這也反映了相較去年第三季較具挑戰的稅率比較。最後,我們仍預期營運現金流約為 135 億美元,為支持投資與持續具吸引力的股東回報提供更大彈性。

  • I will now conclude today's presentation with a few key takeaways. We delivered an excellent first half, underscoring the quality of our business model and placing us firmly on track for another year of strong performance.

    我將以幾項重點結語來結束今天的簡報。我們上半年表現優異,凸顯我們商業模式的品質,並使我們穩健地朝向再度締造強勁表現的一年邁進。

  • Our results reflect the powerful combination of Smoke-Free growth and strong Combustible execution with profitability of our Smoke-Free portfolio continuing to improve as IQOS, ZYN and VEEV gain scale and drive synergies across markets. This performance, together with effective cost management provide us with the flexibility to reinvest behind our smoke future while sustaining best-in-class growth.

    我們的成果反映了無煙業務成長與可燃式產品強勁執行的強大組合;隨著 IQOS、ZYN 與 VEEV 規模擴大並在各市場帶動協同效益,我們無煙產品組合的獲利能力也持續改善。這樣的表現,加上有效的成本管理,使我們能夠在維持同業最佳成長的同時,具備彈性將資源再投入於我們的無煙未來。

  • We also remain a highly cash-generative business with an unwavering commitment to our progressive dividend policy and to returning value to shareholders. Looking ahead, we approach the remainder of 2026 with confidence, well positioned to deliver superior and sustainable growth.

    我們也仍是一家現金創造能力極強的企業,並堅定承諾我們的漸進式股利政策,以及向股東回饋價值。展望未來,我們對 2026 年剩餘期間充滿信心,並已做好充分準備,以交付更卓越且可持續的成長。

  • On a more personal note, this is my last earnings call as Group CFO of PMI. And I would like to thank our shareholders and analysts for your support, engagement, and constructive challenge over the past six years, a period of strong performance and shareholder returns.

    就個人而言,這是我以 PMI 集團財務長身分主持的最後一次法說會。我也要感謝股東與分析師在過去六年對我的支持、參與以及建設性的挑戰;這段期間我們表現強勁,並為股東帶來良好回報。

  • As I look at the business today, I am confident PMI will continue to represent a standout performer within CPG over the coming years. And I leave you in the very talented end of my successor, Massimo Andolina, who will transition from his current role as Regional President for Europe in August.

    以我對當前業務的觀察,我有信心 PMI 在未來幾年將持續成為 CPG 領域中的傑出表現者。我也將把各位交到我繼任者 Massimo Andolina 的手中;他將於 8 月自目前的歐洲區域總裁職務轉任並完成交接。

  • Massimo Andolina - President, Europe Region

    Massimo Andolina - President, Europe Region

  • Thank you, Emmanuel. Good morning and good afternoon to everyone. Emmanuel, I would first like to pay tribute to your significant contribution to the performance of our company over the last few years. And to the great collaboration that you and I have personally enjoyed both in my previous roles and in the process of this transition. Emmanuel, I am fully aware that you leave behind big shoes to fill, and I will continue to count on your support in the coming months to do so effectively. Thank you.

    謝謝你,Emmanuel。各位早安、午安。Emmanuel,我首先要向你在過去幾年對公司績效所做出的重大貢獻致敬。也感謝你我在我先前職務期間以及此次交接過程中,所建立的良好合作。Emmanuel,我完全明白你留下的是一個很難填補的位置;在接下來幾個月,我也將持續仰賴你的支持,以有效完成這項工作。謝謝。

  • I am very much looking forward to serving as the group CFO of Philip Morris International and continuing our relentless focus on delivering superior shareholder returns over the long term. We have a very robust business model built on investing for sustainable Smoke-Free growth and a strong and talented organization with an excellent track record of delivering for shareholders. I look forward to engaging with our investors, our analysts and all other stakeholders over the coming months and beyond.

    我非常期待擔任 Philip Morris International 的集團財務長,並持續專注於長期為股東創造卓越回報。我們擁有非常穩健的商業模式,建立在為可持續的無煙成長而投資之上;同時也有一個強大且具才華的組織,並具備為股東交付成果的優異紀錄。我期待在未來幾個月乃至更長時間,與我們的投資人、分析師及所有其他利害關係人持續交流互動。

  • James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer

    James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you, Massimo. Thank you, Emmanuel. The team are now happy to answer your questions.

    謝謝你,Massimo。謝謝你,Emmanuel。團隊現在很樂意回答各位的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

    (接線員指示) Bonnie Herzog,高盛。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • Emmanuel, it's been great working with you, and I do wish you all the best in the future. My first question is on your guidance. Despite two quarters of better-than-expected performance and strength, you did maintain your full-year underlying growth guidance. So I did just want to verify, this is primarily due to your strategic decision to step up investments in the US in the second half? Or is there something else we should be mindful of?

    Emmanuel,能與你共事非常愉快,我也衷心祝福你未來一切順利。我的第一個問題是關於你們的指引。儘管連續兩個季度的表現與動能都優於預期,你們仍維持全年基礎成長指引不變。所以我想確認一下,這主要是因為你們策略性決定在下半年加大對美國的投資嗎?還是有其他我們需要留意的因素?

  • And then your guidance still does imply slightly faster income growth in 2H versus 1H. So I wanted to understand how much flexibility you have with this greater spending. And then could you maybe just give us a little more color on these planned investments? For instance, should we anticipate a big step-up in promotional spend behind ZYN?

    另外,你們的指引仍暗示下半年相較上半年收入成長略快。因此我想了解,在增加支出方面你們有多大的彈性。以及能否請你們再多提供一些這些規劃中投資的細節?例如,我們是否應預期在 ZYN 背後的促銷支出會大幅增加?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Bonnie. So I mean H1, you've seen it, is great. And the fact that after a great H1, indeed, with some very good news in Q2 globally and notably with the confirmation of a strong Smoke-Free business, [CC] that is doing better than expected. The reason why today we are not revising the guidance is indeed the fact that we also are facing a very exciting moment in the US.

    謝謝你,Bonnie。所以我的意思是,上半年你們也看到了,表現非常好。而在上半年表現很好的情況下,確實,第二季在全球範圍內也有一些非常好的消息,特別是無煙業務的強勁表現得到確認,[CC] 其表現優於預期。今天我們沒有上修指引的原因,確實是因為我們在美國也正面臨一個非常令人振奮的時刻。

  • We have an alignment of planet that is of course, great. We have, as we've been explaining, now a much broader portfolio of variants. We are coming with more flavor on our dry offering, and you've seen that. We talk about peach, dragonberry, and black cherry. We are coming with, now, ZYN ULTRA. So with 9 and 11, we are announcing that we are coming with 1.5 and 8 milligrams.

    我們可說是天時地利人和,當然非常好。如同我們一直在說明的,我們現在有更廣泛的產品變體組合。我們在乾式產品上推出更多口味,你們也看到了。我們談到蜜桃、火龍莓以及黑櫻桃。我們現在也推出 ZYN ULTRA。因此在 9 和 11 之外,我們宣布將推出 1.5 與 8 毫克。

  • So we are really putting together now a portfolio that is really, I would say, nicely matching consumer demand and the evolution of the market. On top of that, we have our new marketing campaign, When it clicks. I think we are very, very enthused by the potential of this campaign to build further the emotion around the ZYN brand and develop the brand franchise.

    所以我們現在確實正在打造一個產品組合,我會說,能很好地契合消費者需求以及市場演變。此外,我們也推出新的行銷活動「When it clicks」。我們對這個活動進一步強化 ZYN 品牌情感連結、並擴大品牌版圖的潛力感到非常、非常振奮。

  • I would say the MRTP is almost coming as an icing on the cake. We were confident this would come. We were confident about the quality of the product, that it's great, that we are able now to have this authorization to market the product with reduced risk I mentioned and have been elaborating on that. So that's really a great moment in the US to accelerate and I would say we're going to go 360.

    我會說,MRTP 幾乎就像是錦上添花。我們有信心它會到來。我們對產品品質有信心,它很出色,而我們現在也能取得授權,以我剛提到並已進一步說明的降低風險方式來行銷該產品。因此,這確實是美國一個很好的時刻來加速,我會說我們將採取 360 度全方位推進。

  • So it's going to be -- every lever we can pull to accelerate the growth of ZYN and leveraging this new situation, and that's going to come, of course, with a lot of marketing, commercial activity at the point of sales. That's going to be really important.

    也就是說——我們會動用所有能動用的槓桿來加速 ZYN 的成長,並善用這個新局面;當然,這將伴隨大量行銷與在銷售端的商業活動。這將非常重要。

  • I think you were questioning, okay, what does it mean in terms of promotional activity? Well, you've seen that Q2 has been more reduced in terms of promotional activity. That's why we are close to flat year-on-year in terms of revenue with volume slightly up.

    我想你在問,好,那在促銷活動方面意味著什麼?嗯,你們也看到第二季在促銷活動方面相對較少。這也是為什麼我們的營收年增幾乎持平,而銷量略有上升。

  • I think we'll see. I'm not going, of course, to comment in advance. That would be anticompetitive, any kind of price action. There is one starting point, which is absolutely intangible. ZYN is a leading premium brand of the market and it's going to stay as the leading premium brand of the market. And then everything we will be doing in that respect will be to optimize volume growth and the bottom-line growth.

    我想我們再觀察。我當然不會提前評論。任何價格行動的提前評論都可能構成反競爭。有一個起點是絕對不容動搖的。ZYN 是市場領先的高端品牌,並且將持續作為市場領先的高端品牌。接下來我們在這方面所做的一切,都是為了最佳化銷量成長與獲利(底線)成長。

  • And once I've said that, I've said everything I can say in that respect. But it's illustrating how we are looking at things. But that's certainly, in the US, after several quarters of frustration, it's a great moment. And it's great that, obviously, we have the capacity to deliver a very strong growth while accelerating our investment in the US.

    我說到這裡,也就把我能說的都說了。但這也說明了我們看待事情的方式。不過可以肯定的是,在美國,經歷了好幾個季度的挫折之後,現在是一個很好的時刻。而且很棒的是,顯然我們有能力在加速對美國投資的同時,仍交付非常強勁的成長。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • Okay. That was super helpful. And just maybe a quick follow-up on ZYN. Just hoping for a little more color on the rollout of ULTRA, early feedback. You've been hearing from retailers and consumers, space games, how incremental do you expect it to be?

    好的。這非常有幫助。另外,關於 ZYN 也許再追問一個簡短問題。希望能再多一些關於 ULTRA 推出的進度與早期回饋的資訊。你們從零售商與消費者那邊聽到的情況、貨架空間的競爭,你們預期它的增量貢獻會有多大?

  • And then you mentioned this morning that you have plans to rollout the lower nicotines ZYN. So I just love to hear how you expect to position that within broader ZYN portfolio and how incremental that can be?

    另外,你們今天早上提到有計畫推出較低尼古丁的 ZYN。所以我也很想聽聽,你們預期會如何在更廣泛的 ZYN 產品組合中定位它,以及它可能帶來多少增量?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So on the ZYN ULTRA, I don't think we want to be overplaying the first two weeks. I mean, you have seen this first two weeks of [Nissan] as we did. It's very nice. We have sequential growth. We are growing our share. We are capturing, I think, a large part of the evolution of the category over these two weeks period. We have a number of positive consumer feedback.

    是的。關於 ZYN ULTRA,我不認為我們想過度解讀前兩週的表現。我的意思是,你們也看到我們所看到的這前兩週的 [Nissan]。表現非常不錯。我們有連續性的成長。我們的市占在提升。我認為在這兩週期間,我們抓住了品類演變中的很大一部分。我們也收到不少正面的消費者回饋。

  • I think, here, we want to stay cautious because we talk about two weeks, a lot to come. But I would say the first data and first feedback are certainly encouraging. Let's have a bit more week and I'm not sure after the summer, we'll be able to have a much better understanding of what ZYN ULTRA is bringing.

    我想在這裡我們希望保持審慎,因為我們談的是兩週,後面還有很多要發生。但我會說,第一批數據與第一波回饋確實令人鼓舞。再多看幾週,我不確定是否在夏季之後,我們就能更清楚地了解 ZYN ULTRA 帶來了什麼。

  • On your question on the low nicotine, I think we've always said, and it's not specific to the US, generally on the nicotine pouch category, that we see the 1.5 milligram as particularly relevant to convince smokers to switch to this better alternative. And we know that too high in nicotine content can actually create a bad experience and discourage some of them to be moving to this product.

    至於你問到低尼古丁,我想我們一直都說過,而且這不僅限於美國;一般就尼古丁袋品類而言,我們認為 1.5 毫克特別有助於說服吸菸者改用這個更好的替代方案。我們也知道,尼古丁含量過高其實可能造成不佳體驗,反而讓其中一些人卻步、不願轉向這個產品。

  • So we hope that this 1.5 milligram is going to be helping really millions of American to really taste the category, I would say, in the most favorable possible condition and with the best possible experience. Now of course, I will stay silent on our plan in terms of rollout and what we want to do because that's sensitive information. But that's really the philosophy that we have behind this 1.5 milligram.

    因此我們希望這個 1.5 毫克能真正幫助數以百萬計的美國人,以我會說最有利的條件、並以最佳體驗來嘗試這個品類。當然,關於我們在推出時程與具體作法上的計畫,我會保持沉默,因為那是敏感資訊。但這就是我們在 1.5 毫克背後的核心理念。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Smith, Stifel.

    Matt Smith,Stifel。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • I wanted to dig in a little bit further on the Japan dynamics during the quarter, and more importantly, the progression, both from a category growth standpoint in IMS as well as IQOS's growth during the quarter. The overall IQOS HTU share was resilient, but any more detail on the share trends within IQOS? The mix between the IQOS consumable portfolio and expectations in the second half, given another excise tax increase in October, whether you think that has another impact on the third quarter versus fourth quarter phasing?

    我想更深入了解本季日本市場的動態,更重要的是其進展:包括 IMS 口徑下的品類成長,以及 IQOS 在本季的成長。整體 IQOS HTU 市占表現具韌性,但能否再多提供一些 IQOS 內部的市占趨勢細節?IQOS 消耗品產品組合之間的組合變化,以及考量 10 月又將有一次消費稅上調,你們對下半年的預期為何?你們是否認為這會對第三季相較第四季的節奏(phasing)產生另一層影響?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Matt. Happy to do that. So again, maybe let me start by repeating that what we've been experiencing in Japan is in line with our expectations. So we knew it would be a bit chaotic to read between Q1, pantry loading, Q2 with, of course, negative impact at the beginning and then a recovery.

    是的,Matt。很樂意這麼做。所以再說一次,也許我先重申,我們在日本所經歷的情況符合我們的預期。所以我們知道,在Q1之後、因囤貨效應,以及Q2當然在一開始有負面影響、之後又出現復甦,這之間的解讀會有點混亂。

  • If you take a kind of macro approach on what has been happening in Japan, yes, the category has been slowing in terms of growth. But what else would you expect? I mean it's a significant increase for the consumer in a country where the consumer is not, I would say, used to have a very significant price increase. So there is a kind of cultural shock here that is happening.

    如果你用較宏觀的角度看日本正在發生的事,是的,該品類的成長速度已經放緩。但你還能期待什麼呢?我的意思是,對消費者而言這是一次顯著的漲價,而在一個我會說消費者並不習慣出現非常顯著漲價的國家,這樣的漲幅很大。所以這裡正在發生某種文化衝擊。

  • So that is, of course, something that is a disruption, but that's what we're expected to the category. So that has meant that the category has been slowing down, but it's still growing. And as we see the data through Q2, we see things that are regularly improving and if -- now I focus on IQOS, we have been certainly more impacted on TEREA, which is the most expensive consumable brand. And there was a very nice SENTIA safety net, I would say, for the consumer.

    所以這當然是一種擾動,但這也是我們對該品類的預期。因此這意味著品類增速放緩,但仍在成長。而當我們看Q2的數據時,我們看到情況在持續改善;如果——現在我聚焦在IQOS——我們確實在TEREA上受到較大影響,因為它是最昂貴的耗材品牌。而我會說,SENTIA對消費者而言是一個非常好的安全網。

  • So without giving the precise number, what we've seen is that SENTIA is probably above where it was when TEREA has not fully recovered yet because of this move from TEREA to SENTIA. But overall, I mean, we finished at 68%. We are at 69% in the quarter before. So frankly, I don't even know whether this is really significant.

    所以在不提供精確數字的情況下,我們看到SENTIA可能高於TEREA尚未完全復甦時的水準,因為出現了從TEREA轉向SENTIA的移動。但整體而言,我們最後是68%。上一季是69%。所以坦白說,我甚至不確定這是否真的有顯著意義。

  • We have been the one, and I've been saying it again in my remarks with the biggest increase with our JPY40, and we've gone through the work for us because this first increase was the worst. And the pass on -- I'm not going to say what we're going to do in H2, but the pass-on is lower. It's closer to JPY20 in the second half.

    我們是漲幅最大的一方,我在發言中也再次提到,我們調升了40日圓,而對我們來說最艱難的部分已經走過,因為第一次調漲是最痛的。至於轉嫁——我不會說我們在下半年會做什麼——但轉嫁幅度會更低。下半年更接近20日圓。

  • So -- we've been going through the worst. And we know that the competition, if they want to absorb their excise duty increase, they have to increase more than us or they will have to have significant adverse consequences. So that's really what we can say on Japan. So we're not totally with this adjustment behind us.

    所以——我們已經度過最艱難的階段。而我們也知道,競爭對手如果想吸收其消費稅(菸稅)上調,就必須比我們漲得更多,否則就會面臨重大的不利後果。所以這就是我們對日本能說的。所以我們還沒有完全把這次調整拋在身後。

  • As we flagged, there will be more disruption in H2. But I would say we're quite confident that we've been going through the most difficult moment. It reacted as expected and I think it's a tribute to the IQOS strength in the country. And now, we go for H2, as I said, with a lower impact in terms of pass-on.

    正如我們先前提示的,下半年還會有更多擾動。但我會說,我們相當有信心,最困難的時刻已經走過。市場反應符合預期,我認為這也證明了IQOS在該國的強勢。而現在,正如我所說,我們進入下半年時,轉嫁帶來的影響會較低。

  • Now just let me say about what's going to happen next because it's important to have in mind, and this one, I think, is going to play positively. You know that in '26, there is no increase on combustible. In '27, there is already planned, and I think it's '27 to '29, three years of excise duty increase at a much more limited level, of course, but both equally for CC and for heat-not-burn.

    現在我再談談接下來會發生什麼,因為這點很重要,需要記在心裡;而我認為這將帶來正面作用。你知道在2026年,傳統可燃產品不會加稅。在2027年,已經有規劃,我想是2027到2029年,連續三年的菸稅上調,幅度當然小得多,但對CC(可燃香菸)與加熱不燃產品都同樣適用。

  • And as we've been moving to fixed, right, that is going to open the window probably for a favorable environment where, as a leading brand in terms of price, we are less impacted proportionally than others. That is creating window to increase price, which was not always obvious in the past. The pass-on, I think, is around JPY12 for the coming years. And probably after what was a difficult moment to absorb in '26, I think that is going to translate into a much more favorable landscape '27 and beyond.

    而隨著我們轉向固定(稅制/機制),對吧,這可能會打開一個有利的窗口:作為價格領先的品牌,我們在比例上受到的影響比其他人更小。這就創造了提價的窗口,而過去這並不總是那麼明顯。我認為未來幾年的轉嫁大約是12日圓。而在2026年經歷一段難以消化的時期之後,我認為這將在2027年及之後轉化為更有利的市場格局。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

    Eric Serotta,摩根士丹利。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • First of all, thank you, Emmanuel. It's been a pleasure working with you. Looking forward to working with you ahead Massimo and best of luck, Emmanuel, in your next --

    首先,謝謝你,Emmanuel。和你共事很愉快。期待接下來與你以及Massimo一起合作,也祝你接下來一切順利,Emmanuel,在你的下一個--

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • Turning to -- coming back to Japan, can you comment a bit about the competitive environment there? We definitely saw a pickup in promotional activity over the past year from some of your competitors starting to cycle the beginning of that. How are you seeing that or how have you seen that evolve in recent months? I know it's certainly noisy given the excise pass-through.

    回到——再回到日本,你能否稍微評論一下那裡的競爭環境?我們確實看到過去一年一些競爭對手的促銷活動有所升溫,開始進入那段週期。你怎麼看待這點,或你看到近幾個月這種情況如何演變?我知道由於菸稅轉嫁,確實會很嘈雜、難以判讀。

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Eric. So in Japan, as you can imagine, I would say, it's probably all hands-on deck for every player given this very strong pass on in two steps. So people are probably no longer playing with trying to make a promotion here. I'm going to try to play a kind of strange game here and there. I think everybody is saying, how do I absorb to the best possible of my capacity, what is a big increase.

    是的,Eric。所以在日本,如你所想,我會說,鑑於這種分兩步、幅度很大的轉嫁,對每個玩家來說大概都是全員上陣。所以大家可能不再把心力放在試著做某個促銷。我不會在這裡或那裡玩什麼奇怪的策略。我想每個人都在想:我如何在能力範圍內,盡可能把這次大幅上調消化掉。

  • And when you don't have the best image in the market, it's more difficult for you to convince the consumer that your product deserves a significant price increase. So I believe everybody is a little bit in the middle of that. I think we've been flying in the fact that before this excise duty alignment or equalization happened, Japan Tobacco had been gaining share.

    而當你在市場上的形象不是最好的時候,要說服消費者你的產品值得一次顯著的漲價就更困難。所以我相信大家多少都處在這種狀態中。我認為我們一直在強調的是,在這次菸稅對齊或等化發生之前,日本煙草其實一直在提升市占。

  • I'm not going to comment on the trend on H1 and I'm not even sure that it's at that moment, easy to read what's going on. But the fact that we are maintaining our share broadly, I mean [$68 million versus $69 million] is just showing that, yeah, you can have between competitor number two, competitor number three, you can have some more. But at the end of the day, we stay largely ahead of the competition.

    我不會評論上半年(H1)的趨勢,而且我也不確定在這個時點是否容易解讀正在發生什麼。但我們大致維持市占這件事——也就是[6,800萬對6,900萬]——只是顯示,是的,在第二名、第三名競爭者之間,可能會有一些此消彼長。但歸根結底,我們仍然大幅領先競爭對手。

  • I think we will need to have the dust settling a little bit towards the end of the year to see what's going to be the -- and with a further price or excise increase, as I mentioned, what is the new game of the competitor. But I think, today, everybody is trying to really work on absorbing this significant excise duty.

    我認為我們需要等到接近年底、塵埃稍微落定,才能看出——以及如我提到的,隨著進一步的價格或菸稅上調——競爭對手的新玩法會是什麼。但我認為,就目前而言,每個人都在努力消化這次顯著的菸稅上調。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • Great. Very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on that. I have seen that Japan Tobacco applied to the Ministry of Finance for the October price increase. It looks like it was very slightly below the full pass-through of the excise. Is that consistent with your read on it based on pricing in the marketplace? And have you guys applied to the Ministry in terms of October pricing yet?

    很好。非常有幫助。接著就此快速追問一下。我看到日本煙草已向財務省申請10月的漲價。看起來略低於將菸稅完全轉嫁的幅度。這是否與你根據市場定價所做的判讀一致?另外,你們就10月定價是否也已向財務省提出申請?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • So look, I'm not going to comment on what the competitor has been doing. I think it's public what they've been granted by the Ministry of Finance. I'm not going to comment either on their strategy. I think we've been saying that globally, I'm not being specific to the competition, the excise duty equalization meant a significantly higher price increase for us.

    所以你看,我不會評論競爭對手在做什麼。我想他們獲得財務省核准的內容是公開資訊。我也不會評論他們的策略。我想我們一直在說的是,從全球角度——我不是特別針對競爭對手——菸稅等化意味著我們需要面對顯著更高的漲價幅度。

  • You remember that for us, altogether, it's around 10%. For the competitor, it could go up to 20%. So it's a much bigger price increase if they want to fully pass on, but I don't know what they're going to do. And for us, for application because this is your question, this is not public yet. So I'm not going to comment on what we've been doing or not doing. But if you can be bearing with us a little bit, I'm sure you'll learn soon.

    你記得對我們而言,合計大約是 10%。對競爭對手而言,可能會上升到 20%。所以如果他們想要完全轉嫁,這將是大得多的漲價幅度,但我不知道他們會怎麼做。而對我們來說,關於應用端,因為這是你的問題,這還沒有公開。所以我不會評論我們一直在做或沒有做什麼。但如果你能再稍微耐心等我們一下,我相信你很快就會知道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Faham Baig, UBS.

    (接線員指示) Faham Baig,瑞銀。

  • Faham Baig - Analyst

    Faham Baig - Analyst

  • I've got two, if that's okay. The first one is a clarification, Emmanuel. When you suggest optimizing ZYN's price premium positioning, I know you've introduced in ULTRA, which sort of helps with that. But are you also referring to ZYN flagship? And I know you're sort of conscious about market share rightly so. But if that is the case, could this also help reaccelerate category growth, which is currently running around 20%? That's my first question.

    我有兩個問題,如果可以的話。第一個是釐清一下,Emmanuel。當你提到要優化 ZYN 的溢價定位時,我知道你們推出了 ULTRA,某種程度上有助於做到這點。但你也指的是 ZYN 旗艦產品嗎?而且我知道你對市占率很在意,這確實合理。但如果是這樣,這是否也能幫助重新加速品類成長(目前大約在 20%)?這是我的第一個問題。

  • My second question, and I appreciate pricing is a highly sensitive topic, and I'm not here looking for forward-looking guidance. But is it reasonable to assume that pricing is likely to be a greater part of the IQOS growth algorithm going forward? And is that a lever that could further drive gross margin expansion at IQOS?

    第二個問題,我也理解定價是高度敏感的議題,我不是來尋求前瞻性指引的。但是否可以合理假設,未來定價可能會在 IQOS 的成長算法中扮演更重要的角色?而這是否是一個能進一步推動 IQOS 毛利率擴張的槓桿?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Thank you for your question. So on optimizing, I think I'm going to go back to what I've been saying, which is, for us, optimizing means to put ZYN globally. And you will allow me, of course, not to elaborate between ZYN DRY or ZYN ULTRA or whatever is in the future is to position our ZYN variance at a price point where we are maximizing volume growth and bottom-line growth.

    當然。謝謝你的提問。關於「優化」,我想回到我一直在說的:對我們而言,優化意味著把 ZYN 推向全球。當然你也會允許我不去細談 ZYN DRY、ZYN ULTRA,或未來可能推出的任何產品;我們要做的是把我們的 ZYN 各個版本定位在一個價格點上,以最大化銷量成長與最終獲利成長。

  • I'm going to repeat it. ZYN is and will remain the premium leader of the market. And of course, it's a very exciting market. That is the fastest-growing category in the US. We want to take our fair share of the growth of the category and to do it in a profitable manner. So that's what we mean by optimizing the price. And I'm not going to elaborate more on that.

    我再重申一次。ZYN 是、也將持續是市場的高端領導者。而且這當然是一個非常令人振奮的市場。這是美國成長最快的品類。我們希望以獲利的方式,取得該品類成長中我們應得的份額。所以這就是我們所說的「優化價格」。我不會再進一步展開。

  • Now on IQOS, you've seen that it's 3%, okay, in this first part of the year, the price increase on IQOS. To be clear, the name of the game today is more to optimize volume, and I don't need to repeat here that IQOS consumables are coming with 2 times more dollar per stick revenue, even more in terms of gross profit because the gross margin is higher. So really optimizing volume is the name of the game.

    至於 IQOS,你已經看到今年前半段 IQOS 的漲價是 3%,好嗎。說清楚一點,當下的關鍵更在於優化銷量;我也不需要在這裡重複,IQOS 耗材每支帶來的美元收入是傳統卷菸的 2 倍,毛利貢獻更高,因為毛利率更高。所以真正的重點是優化銷量。

  • It doesn't prevent us from, of course, tactically when we can and without damaging the volume increasing price. But for the timing, that's really the priority. Now on the long term, of course, there will be a moment where IQOS is becoming bigger. The market will mature at a point in time in the future and at that time, we are building a brand that is second to none.

    這並不妨礙我們在可以的時候、以戰術方式、且不傷害銷量的前提下提高價格。但就時點而言,這確實是目前的優先事項。至於長期,當然會有一個時刻,IQOS 會變得更大。市場在未來某個時間點會走向成熟,而到那時,我們正在打造一個無可匹敵的品牌。

  • I mean, the fact -- I'm not sure that people noted the fact that we are now in the country list of the top 100 brand. I mean, that's quite an event, and that's quite remarkable. The brand is 10-year-old. And I think we're building something very strong in terms of brand.

    我的意思是——我不確定大家是否注意到——我們現在已經進入各國「前 100 大品牌」名單。這是一件大事,也相當了不起。這個品牌才 10 年。我認為我們在品牌力方面正在打造非常強的東西。

  • And we all know that a strong brand in the future will mean our capacity to increase price because the consumer will see value in the brand. So we are preparing the ground for indeed the capacity to accelerate price in the future. But today, the priority, as I said, is on optimizing volumes.

    而我們都知道,未來強勢品牌意味著我們有能力提高價格,因為消費者會在品牌中看到價值。所以我們確實是在為未來加速提價的能力打地基。但今天的優先事項,如我所說,是優化銷量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Pallav Mittal, Barclays.

    Pallav Mittal,巴克萊。

  • Pallav Mittal - Equity Analyst

    Pallav Mittal - Equity Analyst

  • I've got two. So firstly, a question on IQOS in Europe. Clearly, in the second quarter, saw an impact from flavor band in the remaining market, you highlighted Poland, Hungary, et cetera. What gives you the confidence that IQOS IMS can accelerate again in Europe? And what in your view is a sustainable level underlying, say, growth rate in the near term in Europe IQOS? That's the first one.

    我有兩個問題。首先是關於歐洲的 IQOS。很明顯第二季在其餘市場受到口味禁令的影響,你提到了波蘭、匈牙利等等。是什麼讓你有信心 IQOS 的 IMS 在歐洲能再次加速?以及在你看來,短期內歐洲 IQOS 可持續的基礎成長率大概會是多少?這是第一個。

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • So I'm going to hand over to Massimo on that one on Europe.

    那題關於歐洲的,我交給 Massimo 來回答。

  • Massimo Andolina - President, Europe Region

    Massimo Andolina - President, Europe Region

  • Thank you. Thank you for the question. Look, if you eliminate the impact that we have had during this year from Poland and Hungary in particular, there are two markets that have been hit by characterizing flavor ban and two markets where we had a high percentage of flavor propositions in the market. You will see that the underlying growth trend in Europe has not substantially changed.

    謝謝。謝謝你的提問。你看,如果把今年我們在波蘭與匈牙利(尤其是這兩個市場)所受到的影響排除掉——這兩個市場受到「特徵性口味」禁令衝擊,而且我們在那裡的口味型產品占比很高——你會看到歐洲的基礎成長趨勢並沒有實質改變。

  • And I think the confidence comes for me from a couple of things. Number one, we have already gone through this in a variety of other markets. And we have seen that after the first couple of quarters, in which we take the hit, obviously, from -- in terms of volume from the flavor ban, then we re-established the growth trajectory that we had before that occurred, which is a testament to the commercial engine that we have in place and the strength of the portfolio.

    我認為我的信心來自幾點。第一,我們在其他多個市場已經經歷過類似情況。我們看到在最初一兩個季度,因口味禁令在銷量上受到衝擊之後,我們會重新回到禁令發生前的成長軌跡;這證明了我們既有的商業引擎與產品組合的強度。

  • The second thing is that we have been expanding the portfolio in order to be able to prepare for this. And therefore, at this point, the portfolio is both tiered vertically with the introduction of DELIA, that is playing more and more a significant role for us, both in terms of acquisition, but also in certain markets where there have been significant tax increases, also in allowing consumers a more affordable proposition.

    第二點是,我們一直在擴充產品組合,以便為此做好準備。因此在目前這個時間點,我們的產品組合在垂直分層上更完整;隨著 DELIA 的導入,它對我們的角色愈來愈重要——不僅在拉新方面,也在某些稅負大幅上調的市場,讓消費者能有更可負擔的選擇。

  • But more importantly, I would say, a lot of consumers have found in DELIA an opportunity in specialty CC smokers, an opportunity that they understand better and that they find that test profile adopts better to their needs.

    但更重要的是,我會說,許多消費者在 DELIA 上找到了機會;對於偏好特定 CC(傳統卷菸)類型的吸菸者而言,這是一個他們更能理解、且他們覺得其口感特徵更符合需求的選項。

  • Together with that, you have seen that we have launched LEVIA in a variety of markets. That is a non-tobacco flavor proposition. It's obviously still early days for that proposition. It's a different type of products. But we have seen that in many markets, and Hungary is certainly one of those, we have rapidly achieved double-digit percentage of our portfolio.

    此外,你也看到我們在多個市場推出了 LEVIA。這是一種非菸草風味的產品主張。當然目前仍在早期階段。這是不同類型的產品。但我們看到在許多市場——匈牙利肯定是其中之一——我們很快就讓它在我們的產品組合中達到雙位數百分比的占比。

  • Last but not least, I would bring the fact that our playground is at this point, not only IQOS. You have seen that in the course of the past 24 months, we have made a significant pivot to a multi-category commercial engine in which we also play significantly with VEEV in the e-vape category.

    最後但同樣重要的是,我要提到,我們現在的戰場不只是在 IQOS。你已經看到在過去 24 個月裡,我們大幅轉向多品類的商業引擎,在電子霧化(e-vape)品類中,我們也透過 VEEV 進行相當程度的布局。

  • And as Emmanuel said before, in the space of a couple of years, we have reached the number one position in Europe in closed pods and disposables, but also more recently and from a small base, also with oral where the early signals in market like Poland, for instance, or the UK or Austria are extremely encouraging.

    正如 Emmanuel 先前所說,在短短幾年內,我們已在歐洲的封閉式煙彈與一次性產品中躍居第一;而且更近期地、雖然基期仍小,我們在口含產品方面也有所進展,例如在波蘭、英國或奧地利等市場,早期訊號都極為令人鼓舞。

  • We have been outperforming the category in growth in the markets, and therefore, gaining share pretty much everywhere where we have launched. So I think these are all the reasons why we remain confident despite the fact the characterizing flavor ban is obviously a very disruptive option.

    我們在各市場的成長表現一直優於品類,因此幾乎在所有我們推出的地方都在提升市占。所以我認為,儘管特徵風味禁令顯然是一個非常具破壞性的選項,這些都是我們仍保持信心的原因。

  • Pallav Mittal - Equity Analyst

    Pallav Mittal - Equity Analyst

  • Sure. That's very helpful. And just one question on your full-year group revenue guidance. I understand higher investments and which is why you're not increasing your EBIT guidance after a strong H1. But you are talking of a better cigarette volume numbers, also better cigarette pricing with some adverse mix, but there's no change in the group revenue guidance. Can you just talk about what is offsetting that in terms of Smoke-Free volumes and pricing?

    了解。這非常有幫助。另外想問一個關於你們全年集團營收指引的問題。我理解你們投資增加,因此在上半年表現強勁之後沒有上調 EBIT 指引。但你們提到紙菸銷量數據更好、紙菸定價也更好(雖然組合不利),但集團營收指引沒有變。能否談談在無煙產品的銷量與定價方面,是什麼在抵消這些利多?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So of course, we have a nice growth in H1, and we are 5.3% in terms of organic growth. So it's dynamic despite Japan. And for the full year, we are targeting actually to be 5% to 7%. So it's giving us ample headroom to be within the guidance while having a very dynamic H2. So I think it is based on that that we are comfortable keeping the guidance.

    是的。當然,我們上半年有不錯的成長,有機成長率為 5.3%。所以即使日本市場如此,整體仍具動能。而就全年而言,我們的目標其實是 5% 到 7%。因此,即便下半年非常動態,我們仍有充足空間落在指引區間內。所以基於這點,我們有信心維持指引不變。

  • Indeed, as we said, we expect a better volume on CC. And there is more price. But as we said, there is a negative mix. So this one is probably largely offset as we've been explaining. So that explains why we are comfortable keeping the guidance, again, based on H1 and on the overall trajectory.

    確實,如我們所說,我們預期可燃紙菸(CC)的銷量會更好。而且價格也會更高。但如我們所說,組合是負面的。因此,正如我們一直在說明的,這部分大致會被抵消。所以這也解釋了為何我們基於上半年表現與整體走勢,仍有信心維持指引。

  • For Smoke-Free, I should also emphasize the fact that in H1, you have a shipment that are a bit above IMS, when for the full year, we expect shipment and IMS to be broadly aligned. So that means that we expect the reverse. So we expect IMS to be a bit above shipment in the second part of the year. And that also will have an impact on the growth of our revenue.

    至於無煙產品,我也要強調,上半年你們看到的出貨量略高於 IMS;但就全年而言,我們預期出貨量與 IMS 大致一致。這表示我們預期會出現反向情況。也就是說,我們預期下半年 IMS 會略高於出貨量。而這也會影響我們營收的成長。

  • But as I said, if you look at the guidance and what we are seeing in H1, we are pointing to another six months, I mean, H2 of very dynamic growth for revenue, and we are targeting an acceleration on the growth of the operating income. So it's not as if we are expecting a slowdown in H2. Actually, quite the contrary.

    但如我所說,如果你看指引以及我們在上半年看到的情況,我們指向接下來六個月,也就是下半年,營收仍將非常動態成長,且我們的目標是營業利益成長加速。所以並不是我們預期下半年會放緩。事實上,恰恰相反。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerald Pascarelli, Needham & Company.

    Gerald Pascarelli,Needham & Company。

  • Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst

    Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst

  • I'd like to just go back to Combustibles. Given the outperformance that you delivered in volumes this quarter, are you able to provide any color on whether that momentum is maybe sustained over the first part of July? Just looking at the comparisons, the volume comparisons look very favorable in 3Q and really in the back half of the year more broadly. Just curious if there may be some conservatism in your full-year volume outlook or if there are any, I don't know, regional headwinds or timing considerations for us to be mindful of as we model the out?

    我想回到可燃品的部分。鑑於你們本季在銷量上的超預期表現,能否提供一些看法:這股動能是否可能延續到 7 月上旬?從比較基期來看,第三季的銷量比較看起來非常有利,甚至更廣泛地說,下半年整體也很有利。我想了解,你們全年銷量展望是否帶有一些保守性,或是否有任何(我不確定)區域性逆風或時點因素,是我們在建模時需要留意的?

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • No, nothing to flag, and you will allow me not to start commenting the Q3 numbers in July. But indeed, I mean, what is behind the strength of Combustible in Q2 are countries with no Smoke-Free product presence or limited Smoke-Free product presence, and we talk about Turkey, India, Egypt. Indonesia has been doing well as well.

    沒有,沒有什麼需要特別提示的;也請容我不要在 7 月就開始評論第三季的數字。但確實,我是說,可燃品在第二季強勁的背後,是一些沒有無煙產品布局或無煙產品布局有限的國家,我們指的是土耳其、印度、埃及。印尼的表現也不錯。

  • And these are countries we know where you have big demographics. So the legal age cohorts are growing every year. There is a trend on smoking. India for me is a perfect example. You know how powerful the demographics are over there. Smoke-Free products are banned, and therefore, Combustible products are fully benefiting from that. So that's the trend in Q2.

    而這些都是我們所熟悉、人口結構龐大的國家。因此,每年達到法定年齡的人口群都在成長。吸菸也呈現趨勢性發展。對我而言,印度就是一個完美例子。你知道那邊的人口結構力量有多強。無煙產品被禁止,因此可燃產品完全受益於此。所以這就是第二季的趨勢。

  • Okay. It doesn't mean that the rest of the year is going to be at the same level. But nevertheless, this is why we have been revising a bit the volume outlook from around minus 3% to 2% to 3% decline. But that's what we can say for the time being. Once again, we see a big, big difference between countries where people have largely access to Smoke-Free products and other countries.

    好的。這不代表今年其餘時間都會維持在同樣水準。但即便如此,這也是為什麼我們把銷量展望從約 -3% 修正為下滑 2% 到 3%。但目前我們能說的就是這些。再一次,我們看到在民眾能廣泛取得無煙產品的國家,與其他國家之間存在非常、非常大的差異。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

    目前我看到佇列中沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給管理層,請他們做任何結語。

  • James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer

    James Bushnell - IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you. That concludes our call today. Thank you for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again and have a nice day.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。如有任何後續問題,請聯繫投資人關係團隊。再次感謝,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Emmanuel Babeau - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you all. Bye-bye. Warm Bye.

    謝謝大家。再見。誠摯道別。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛線。