菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International 2026 third-quarter results. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際（Philip Morris International）2026年第三季業績說明會。（接線員指示）

Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I would now like to hand it over to our first speaker, James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的電話會議將被錄音。現在我想把時間交給我們的第一位講者：投資人關係與財務傳播副總裁 James Bushnell。請開始。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2026 third quarter results. The press release is available on our website at pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in the exhibit to our Form 8-K dated today and on our Investor Relations website.

歡迎各位。感謝各位加入。今天稍早，我們已發布新聞稿，內含我們2026年第三季業績的詳細資訊。該新聞稿可於我們的網站 pmi.com 查閱。術語表（包括無煙產品的定義），以及本簡報所引用之非GAAP財務衡量指標的調整項目、其他計算方式與與最直接可比之美國GAAP衡量指標的調節表，均載於我們今日提交之 Form 8-K 附件中，並可於我們的投資人關係網站查閱。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. I'm joined today by Massimo Andolina, Group Chief Financial Officer. Massimo, over to you.

今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述以及對未來結果的預測。請各位留意今日簡報與新聞稿中的前瞻性與警示性陳述揭露，了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述出現重大差異的各項因素。今天與我一同出席的是集團財務長 Massimo Andolina。Massimo，交給你。

Thank you, James, and welcome, everyone. We delivered excellent performance in the third quarter with continued volume momentum, putting us firmly on track for a sixth consecutive year of total shipment growth and yet another year of best-in-class results in 2026. The strong underlying momentum of our smoke-free business continued with IQOS HTU shipments at the high end of our expectations and accelerated growth fundamentals across all three of our flagship brands.

謝謝你，James，也歡迎各位。我們在第三季交出優異表現，出貨量動能持續，讓我們穩健朝向連續第六年總出貨量成長邁進，並在2026年再度達成同業最佳水準的成果。我們無煙業務的強勁基本動能延續，IQOS HTU 出貨量位於我們預期區間的高端，且三大旗艦品牌的成長基本面全面加速。

Coupled with standout combustibles performance, we achieved plus 7% organic growth in Q3 net revenues and more than 10% growth in operating income despite challenging comparisons on smoke-free shipments and incremental cost pressures, notably due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Q3 adjusted OI exceeded $5 billion for the first time, while our adjusted OI margin reached close to 45%.

再加上可燃式產品的亮眼表現，我們在第三季實現淨營收有機成長7%，即使在無煙出貨量比較基期具挑戰、以及額外成本壓力增加（尤其來自中東與烏克蘭持續衝突）之下，營業利益仍成長逾10%。第三季調整後營業利益（adjusted OI）首次突破50億美元，而調整後營業利益率接近45%。

Our strong operational performance supported better-than-expected adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 6%, excluding currency, to a record quarterly level of $2.36. IQOS continued to deliver strong and broad-based progress with adjusted IMS volume growth increasing to plus 7.1% in the quarter or plus 10%, excluding Japan and Poland, where we faced specific headwinds from the impact of excise-driven pricing and the characterizing flavor ban, respectively. In nicotine pouches, ZYN's Q3 shipment growth accelerated in international markets and reached plus 4% in the US or plus 13%, excluding the special promotional activity of September 2025.

我們強勁的營運表現，支撐了優於預期的調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）成長：剔除匯率影響後成長6%，並創下每股2.36美元的單季新高。IQOS 持續展現強勁且廣泛的進展，調整後 IMS 銷量成長在本季提升至7.1%；若排除日本與波蘭（我們分別受到消費稅驅動的定價影響，以及特徵風味禁令的特定逆風），則成長達10%。在尼古丁袋方面，ZYN 第三季出貨量成長在國際市場加速；在美國市場達4%，若排除2025年9月的特殊促銷活動影響，則為13%。

This performance was supported by the ongoing rollout of new variants as we invest significantly in the accelerated expansion of our product offer and align the portfolio value proposition over the second half of this year. We are pleased with the initial consumer reaction and sequential increase in category share, even as we have yet to reach full commercial deployment of the first wave of expansion.

此一表現受惠於新口味/規格（variants）的持續推出；我們正大幅投資以加速擴充產品供給，並在今年下半年調整產品組合的價值主張。我們對消費者的初期反應以及品類市占的連續提升感到滿意，即便第一波擴張尚未完全完成商業化部署。

We remain focused on further strengthening the brand, building consumer awareness of the expanded portfolio and continuing to invest behind the significant growth opportunity ahead. In e-vapor, VEEV continued its outstanding progress with a step-up in shipment growth to plus 62%.

我們仍專注於進一步強化品牌、提升消費者對擴充後產品組合的認知，並持續加大投入以掌握前方顯著的成長機會。在電子霧化（e-vapor）方面，VEEV 持續展現卓越進展，出貨量成長提升至62%。

We delivered strong performance across key markets and continued to build our leading position in Europe, the primary international profit pool. Our combustible business delivered a standout Q3 performance, exceeding our expectations through a combination of stable volumes, high single-digit pricing and a specific benefit from the restructuring of distribution terms in certain markets.

我們在主要市場均交出強勁表現，並持續鞏固在歐洲（主要的國際獲利池）的領先地位。我們的可燃式業務在第三季表現亮眼，透過出貨量穩定、接近高個位數的提價，以及在部分市場因調整經銷條款重整所帶來的特定利多，整體表現超出我們預期。

Volumes were especially resilient in markets where smoke-free alternatives remain unavailable or have limited presence, while the continued strength of our brand portfolio, led by Marlboro, supported category share gains and further margin expansion. This is in line with our objective of maximizing combustible value over time to support the growth of our smoke-free business.

在無煙替代品仍未上市或滲透率有限的市場，出貨量展現特別強的韌性；同時，在以萬寶路（Marlboro）為首的品牌組合持續強勢帶動下，我們的品類市占提升，並進一步擴大毛利率。這與我們的目標一致：隨時間推進最大化可燃式產品的價值，以支持無煙業務的成長。

Our overall year-to-date performance further demonstrates the sustainability of our growth model. We continue to expect another year of high-quality, best-in-class volume, sales and profit growth as we continue to invest behind our leading smoke-free platforms to drive long-term value. Turning now to our headline financials for the third quarter.

我們今年迄今的整體表現，進一步證明我們成長模式的可持續性。隨著我們持續投入於領先的無煙平台以驅動長期價值，我們仍預期今年將再度實現高品質、同業最佳水準的出貨量、銷售與獲利成長。接下來看第三季的主要財務數據。

We delivered shipment growth of plus 0.6%, outperforming a broadly stable industry despite unfavorable comparisons on HTUs. Together with robust pricing and favorable category mix, this drove organic net revenue growth of plus 7.1% or plus 5.5% in dollar terms to reach $11.4 billion. Gross profit grew organically by more than plus 8% and adjusted operating income increased plus 10.5% organically and plus 9.6% in dollar terms.

我們實現出貨量成長0.6%，在整體產業大致持平的情況下仍優於同業，儘管 HTU 的比較基期不利。加上穩健的定價與有利的品類組合，帶動淨營收有機成長7.1%；以美元計則成長5.5%，達到114億美元。毛利有機成長超過8%，調整後營業利益有機成長10.5%；以美元計則成長9.6%。

This reflects strong top line growth and effective cost management even as we accelerated our growth investments, notably in the US Adjusted diluted EPS increased plus 5.4% to a new quarterly high of $2.36. This includes an unfavorable currency impact of $0.01 due to dollar strength and lower positive transactional impacts than previously expected, mainly due to the strengthening of the Russian ruble.

這反映了強勁的營收成長與有效的成本管理，即使我們加速成長型投資（尤其在美國）。調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長5.4%，創下每股2.36美元的單季新高。其中包含0.01美元的不利匯率影響，原因在於美元走強，以及正向交易性影響低於先前預期，主要是因俄羅斯盧布走強所致。

As flagged last quarter, this growth also includes an unfavorable comparison against a low tax rate in the prior year period, which reduced Q3 EPS growth by approximately 4 percentage points. Our outstanding year-to-date results further demonstrate the strength and quality of our business fundamentals with shipment volume growth of plus 0.5%, strong pricing and favorable category mix.

如同上季所提示，這項成長亦包含相較去年同期較低稅率的不利比較基期，使第三季每股盈餘成長約減少4個百分點。我們今年迄今的卓越成果，進一步展現我們業務基本面的強度與品質：出貨量成長0.5%，定價強勁且品類組合有利。

This drove organic net revenue growth to plus 5.9% or plus 8.2% in dollar terms, bringing year-to-date net revenues to nearly $33 billion. Adjusted gross profit increased by plus 7.1% organically, while adjusted OI grew by 7.7% organically and plus 10.6% in dollar terms, reaching more than $14 billion.

這帶動淨營收有機成長5.9%；以美元計則成長8.2%，使今年迄今淨營收接近330億美元。調整後毛利有機成長7.1%，而調整後營業利益有機成長7.7%；以美元計則成長10.6%，達到逾140億美元。

We delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $6.52, representing growth of plus 8.4%, excluding currency and plus 11.8% in dollar terms. Turning to shipment volumes. We achieved solid growth in both the third quarter and year-to-date. Consistent with recent years, the structural growth of our smoke-free portfolio more than offset declines in combustibles, and we are firmly on track to achieve our sixth consecutive year of growth.

我們的調整後稀釋每股盈餘為6.52美元；剔除匯率影響後成長8.4%，以美元計則成長11.8%。接下來看出貨量。我們在第三季與今年迄今均達成穩健成長。與近年一致，我們無煙產品組合的結構性成長，已超過可燃式產品的下滑幅度；我們也穩健朝向連續第六年成長的目標前進。

Smoke-free shipments increased by plus 2.7% in the quarter despite the strong prior year comparison and by plus 6.4% year-to-date, driven by IQOS. We continue to expect high single-digit growth in smoke-free adjusted IMS volumes and shipments for the year, with the latter subject to year-end inventory movements. IQOS HTU shipments reached 41.5 billion units in Q3 with year-to-date growth of plus 6.7%.

本季無煙出貨量成長2.7%，儘管去年同期比較基期強勁；今年迄今則成長6.4%，主要由 IQOS 帶動。我們仍預期今年無煙調整後 IMS 銷量與出貨量將呈現高個位數成長；其中出貨量仍可能受年末庫存變動影響。第三季 IQOS HTU 出貨量達415億支，今年迄今成長6.7%。

We now expect HTU shipment growth to be slightly below adjusted IMS growth for the full year with the Q3 dynamic of adjusted IMS growing faster than shipments to continue in Q4, notably due to the in-year phasing impact of price changes in Japan. Q3 shipment growth was supported by a wide range of markets, including Germany, Greece, Spain, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Global Travel Retail, all of which delivered strong double-digit progression.

我們目前預期，全年 HTU 出貨量成長將略低於經調整的 IMS 成長；且第三季經調整 IMS 成長快於出貨量的態勢將延續至第四季，主要原因在於日本價格變動對年內出貨節奏（phasing）的影響。第三季出貨量成長獲多個市場支撐，包括德國、希臘、西班牙、印尼、英國、荷蘭及全球旅遊零售（Global Travel Retail），上述市場均實現強勁的雙位數成長。

Oral smoke-free volumes increased by plus 1.8% in the quarter, supported by our readiness and ability to introduce new product variants in the US alongside an acceleration in international ZYN growth and share gains in Swedish snus. E-vapor shipments grew by a remarkable plus 62%, demonstrating the increasing scale and importance of our multicategory portfolio and VEEV's role within it.

本季口含式無煙產品（oral smoke-free）銷量成長 1.8%，受惠於我們在美國推出新產品變體的準備度與執行能力，同時國際市場 ZYN 成長加速，以及瑞典鼻煙（Swedish snus）市占提升。電子霧化（e-vapor）出貨量大幅成長 62%，顯示我們多品類產品組合的規模與重要性日益提升，以及 VEEV 在其中所扮演的角色。

Cigarette shipments were flat in the quarter despite strong pricing, outperforming an industry decline of 1.1%. This reflects both the strength of our brands and the resilience of the category in markets where smoke-free products are banned or have limited presence such as Turkey, Indonesia and Egypt. On a year-to-date basis, cigarette volumes declined by 1.2%.

本季紙菸出貨量持平，儘管定價表現強勁，仍優於產業下滑 1.1% 的趨勢。這反映出我們品牌的實力，以及在無煙產品被禁止或滲透有限的市場（如土耳其、印尼與埃及）中，該品類的韌性。年初至今，紙菸銷量下滑 1.2%。

While the markets driving this better-than-expected performance generate an unfavorable geographic mix, the continued resilience of our combustible portfolio means we now expect full year cigarette volumes to decline by a similar level, subject to year-end inventory movements. We continue to generate strong top line growth from the fundamental pillars of our business model, namely volume growth, pricing power and the mix benefit of smoke-free unit economics.

儘管帶動此一優於預期表現的市場在地理組合上較為不利，但我們可燃產品組合持續展現韌性，因此我們目前預期全年紙菸銷量將以相近幅度下滑，惟仍取決於年底庫存變動。我們持續依靠商業模式的基本支柱帶動強勁的營收成長，亦即銷量成長、定價能力，以及無煙產品單位經濟帶來的組合效益。

Year-to-date, pricing remained the largest contributor, adding plus 6.2 points of growth. This reflects continued combustible strength with pricing of plus 9.1%, together with a positive contribution from our smoke-free portfolio, including low single-digit pricing on IQOS HTUs. The increasing contribution of smoke-free products in our international business provided a further plus 1.5, I repeat, plus 1.5 points of growth, notwithstanding a lower impact in Q3 due to timing factors.

年初至今，定價仍是最大貢獻來源，帶來 6.2 個百分點的成長。這反映可燃產品持續強勁，定價達 9.1%，同時我們的無煙產品組合亦帶來正向貢獻，包括 IQOS HTU 的低個位數定價。無煙產品在我們國際業務中的占比提升，進一步貢獻 1.5 個百分點，我再重申，1.5 個百分點的成長，儘管第三季因時點因素影響而貢獻較低。

This was partly offset by a 0.6 point headwind from the US, driven predominantly by the impact of lower ZYN shipment volumes and challenging comparisons earlier in the year with these headwinds moderating significantly in the third quarter. Combustible geographic mix and other factors reduced growth by 1.7 points. These headwinds were partially mitigated in Q3 by the impact of restructuring of certain distribution terms I mentioned earlier, which we do not expect to be significant in the fourth quarter.

上述部分被來自美國的 0.6 個百分點逆風所抵銷，主要由於 ZYN 出貨量較低的影響，以及年初較具挑戰性的比較基期；而這些逆風在第三季已顯著趨緩。可燃產品的地理組合及其他因素使成長減少 1.7 個百分點。第三季上述逆風部分被我先前提及的若干經銷條款重整所帶來的影響所緩解；我們預期該影響在第四季不會顯著。

As a result, year-to-date organic net revenue growth reached plus 5.9% and plus 7.1% for Q3. Currency contributed a further plus 2.3 percentage points year-to-date, bringing reported net revenue growth to plus 8.2%. Moving further down the P&L, our adjusted operating margin organically expanded by plus 60 basis points year-to-date and plus 130 basis points in Q3, reaching a very strong level of almost 45% in the quarter.

因此，年初至今有機淨營收成長達 5.9%，第三季為 7.1%。匯率年初至今另貢獻 2.3 個百分點，使報告口徑淨營收成長達 8.2%。進一步往下看損益表（P&L），我們的經調整營業利益率在年初至今有機擴張 60 個基點，第三季擴張 130 個基點，使本季達到接近 45% 的非常強勁水準。

Gross margin expansion remained the primary driver, contributing plus 80 basis points in both Q3 and year-to-date, bolstered by strong pricing, favorable smoke-free mix, increasing scale benefits across our smoke-free business and manufacturing productivity gains. At the same time, we continue to invest strongly behind future growth opportunities. While SG&A organically increased by less than net revenues in Q3, this reflects the ongoing benefits of our G&A productivity initiatives and the favorable comparison against the prior year period, which included certain combustible-related items.

毛利率擴張仍為主要驅動因素，第三季與年初至今皆貢獻 80 個基點，受惠於強勁定價、有利的無煙產品組合、無煙業務規模效益提升，以及製造生產力改善。同時，我們仍持續大力投資於未來成長機會。儘管第三季銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）有機增幅低於淨營收，這反映我們一般及行政（G&A）生產力計畫的持續效益，以及相較去年同期的有利比較（去年同期包含若干與可燃產品相關的項目）。

Both international and US smoke-free commercial investments continued to grow ahead of the top line, accelerating versus the second quarter. For the full year, we expect SG&A to grow broadly in line with net revenues as we continue to work on our back-office costs while strongly increasing commercial investments behind our growth platforms and consumer-facing initiatives across the world.

國際與美國的無煙商業投資皆持續以快於營收的速度成長，且相較第二季有所加速。就全年而言，我們預期 SG&A 的成長大致與淨營收一致；我們將持續改善後勤（back-office）成本，同時在全球範圍內大幅增加對成長平台及面向消費者的各項計畫之商業投資。

This includes increased investments in the US to support our ZYN portfolio expansion and competitiveness. Indeed, our productivity program continues to deliver strong results. We have now generated more than $2 billion of cumulative gross cost savings across both cost of goods sold and SG&A since 2024, achieving our three-year objective ahead of schedule.

其中包括在美國增加投資，以支持我們 ZYN 產品組合的擴張與競爭力。事實上，我們的生產力計畫持續交出強勁成果。自 2024 年以來，我們在銷貨成本與 SG&A 兩方面累計已實現超過 20 億美元的總成本節省，並提前達成三年目標。

Focusing now on our international business, which continues to be the primary engine of group performance and represents 93% of our year-to-date net revenues. International Smoke-Free delivered excellent year-to-date results with organic growth of almost 10% in net revenues and plus 12% in gross profit, driving plus 120 basis points of gross margin expansion to 70%.

接著聚焦我們的國際業務，其仍是集團表現的主要引擎，年初至今占淨營收的 93%。國際無煙業務年初至今表現優異，淨營收有機成長接近 10%，毛利成長 12%，帶動毛利率擴張 120 個基點至 70%。

This reflects the continued growth and increasing profitability of IQOS with additional contributions from our expanding smoke-free portfolio, particularly VEEV. As expected, Q3 growth was slower due to shipment timing comparisons and related category mix.

這反映 IQOS 持續成長且獲利能力提升，並有我們擴大的無煙產品組合（尤其是 VEEV）的額外貢獻。如預期，第三季成長較慢，原因在於出貨時點的比較因素及相關品類組合影響。

Importantly, IQOS gross margins continued to expand meaningfully despite additional cost disruption in Ukraine. Our International Combustibles business also delivered a strong year-to-date performance. Higher category share, robust pricing and efficient execution drove organic net revenue growth of plus 5.2% and gross profit growth of plus 7.4%, supporting plus 140 basis points of organic gross margin expansion.

重要的是，儘管烏克蘭仍有額外成本干擾，IQOS 毛利率仍持續顯著擴張。我們的國際可燃業務年初至今亦交出強勁表現。品類市占提升、穩健定價與高效執行，帶動有機淨營收成長 5.2% 與毛利成長 7.4%，支持有機毛利率擴張 140 個基點。

Together, our international smoke-free and combustible businesses drove plus 7% organic net revenue growth and plus 9.1% gross profit growth with plus 140 basis points of gross margin expansion to 68.8%. This performance supported international organic OCI growth of around plus 11% in both Q3 and year-to-date, comfortably exceeding the targeted OI growth rates for total PMI.

合計而言，我們的國際無煙與可燃業務帶動有機淨營收成長 7%、毛利成長 9.1%，毛利率擴張 140 個基點至 68.8%。此一表現支持國際業務有機 OCI 成長在第三季與年初至今皆約為 11%，明顯高於 PMI 整體所設定的目標 OI 成長率。

Now focusing on international smoke-free, we drove plus 8.6% growth in total adjusted IMS year-to-date, including an acceleration to plus 8% in Q3 and despite the impacts from Japan and Poland. Excluding these two markets, growth was plus 11.8% year-to-date, consistent with the strong growth rates delivered over recent years. Importantly, our smoke-free portfolio continues to outgrow the comparable industry by approximately 1 percentage point, with our share increasing to 62%, reflecting the increasing strength of our multicategory strategy.

再聚焦國際無煙業務，年初至今我們推動總經調整 IMS 成長 8.6%，其中第三季加速至 8%，儘管受到日本與波蘭的影響。若排除這兩個市場，年初至今成長為 11.8%，與近年來所交出的強勁成長率一致。重要的是，我們的無煙產品組合持續較可比產業快約 1 個百分點，市占提升至 62%，反映我們多品類策略的實力日益增強。

I also note that our international market share of cigarettes and HTUs exceeded 30% in the quarter for the first time, underscoring the combined strength of our smoke-free and combustible portfolios. IQOS remains the driving force behind our smoke-free growth.

我也注意到，我們紙菸與 HTU 的國際市占在本季首次超過 30%，凸顯我們無煙與可燃產品組合的綜合實力。IQOS 仍是推動我們無煙成長的主要動力。

Adjusted IMS volume growth accelerated from plus 5.1% in Q2 to plus 7.1% in the third quarter. We are especially pleased with the delivery of plus 7.7% growth year-to-date despite the known headwinds in Japan and Poland. Excluding these two markets, adjusted IMS growth remained around plus 10% in the quarter and almost plus 11% year-to-date, consistent with the strong underlying trajectory of the business and the durability of demand across our geographic footprint.

經調整 IMS 銷量成長由第二季的 5.1% 加速至第三季的 7.1%。我們尤其滿意年初至今達成 7.7% 的成長，儘管日本與波蘭存在已知逆風。若排除這兩個市場，本季經調整 IMS 成長仍約為 10%，年初至今接近 11%，與業務強勁的基本趨勢一致，亦顯示在我們所覆蓋的各地理市場中需求具備持久性。

Key European geographies, including Italy, Greece and Spain, all delivered double-digit adjusted IMS growth year-to-date, complemented by excellent performance in markets such as Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan as well as Global Travel Retail, highlighting the increasing geographic diversification of our IQOS business. Our device and consumables pipeline remains active, supporting both legal age consumer acquisition and brand loyalty.

歐洲主要市場（包括義大利、希臘與西班牙）年初至今均實現兩位數的經調整 IMS 成長；同時，印尼、墨西哥、菲律賓、沙烏地阿拉伯與台灣等市場以及全球旅遊零售亦表現出色，凸顯我們 IQOS 業務在地理布局上的日益多元化。我們的裝置與耗材產品管線仍然活躍，支持法定年齡消費者的獲取與品牌忠誠度。

We continue to enrich our premium TEREA and LEVIA HTU offerings with new taste experiences. Our mainstream-priced variants of DELIA and SENTIA are also supporting acquisition and exceed the size of our closest category competitor. In addition, the expansion of our alternative heating technology, BONDS by IQOS, is ongoing and is resonating well with harder-to-reach entrenched smokers in initial launch areas.

我們持續以全新口味體驗豐富高端 TEREA 與 LEVIA HTU 產品組合。我們主流價位的 DELIA 與 SENTIA 產品亦支持消費者獲取，且規模超越我們最接近的品類競爭對手。此外，我們替代加熱技術 BONDS by IQOS 的擴張仍在進行中，並在初期上市地區對較難觸及、習慣根深蒂固的吸菸者引起良好共鳴。

The strength of IQOS is exemplified by excellent key city offtake share progress across the world, a strong indicator of national level growth potential. We recorded further strong Q3 share gains across established IQOS markets, including Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Romania, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, alongside Global Travel Retail.

IQOS 的強勁實力體現在全球各地關鍵城市的銷售份額（offtake share）取得卓越進展，這是國家層級成長潛力的重要指標。我們在第三季於既有 IQOS 市場持續錄得強勁的份額提升，包括德國、希臘、義大利、日本、羅馬尼亞、荷蘭與英國，並涵蓋全球旅遊零售。

We also continue to see very promising momentum in newer growth markets such as Mexico, Indonesia and Taiwan, in which IQOS increased its national category share to more than 80%. Switching to VEEV, whose momentum remains very strong. Year-to-date shipment volumes increased by plus 68% to 4.0 billion equivalent units.

我們也在墨西哥、印尼與台灣等較新的成長市場持續看到非常可觀的動能，IQOS 在這些市場的全國品類份額提升至 80% 以上。接著談 VEEV，其動能仍然非常強勁。年初至今出貨量增加 68%，達到 40 億等量單位。

This includes continued gains and increasing category leadership across European markets with VEEV further extending its lead over established competitors as the number one closed pod brand in the region. Elsewhere, we continue to see promising growth in markets such as Egypt, Malaysia, Global Travel Retail and in South Korea following its recent launch.

其中包括在歐洲市場持續提升並日益取得品類領導地位；VEEV 作為該地區第一大封閉式煙彈（closed pod）品牌，進一步擴大對既有競爭對手的領先優勢。在其他地區，我們亦持續看到埃及、馬來西亞、全球旅遊零售，以及近期上市後的南韓等市場呈現可期的成長。

The business continues to benefit from our unique multicategory deployment using the unparalleled commercial infrastructure and consumer reach of IQOS, while also benefiting from the structural shift toward closed pod systems across international markets. This trend aligns with our portfolio and commercial strategy as we drive momentum with meaningful innovation such as the current rollout of our new beautiful VEEV ONE+ device, which you can see here on the slide.

本業務持續受益於我們獨特的多品類部署，運用 IQOS 無與倫比的商業基礎設施與消費者觸達能力，同時也受益於國際市場朝向封閉式煙彈系統的結構性轉移。此趨勢與我們的產品組合與商業策略一致；我們透過具意義的創新推動動能，例如目前正在推廣的全新且外觀精美的 VEEV ONE+ 裝置，您可在投影片上看到。

Moving now to ZYN, which continues to generate promising growth in international markets as we invest to build the category. Year-to-date international shipment volumes reached 1.5 billion pouches, representing growth of plus 6.3% on a like-for-like basis. This includes a sequential step-up of plus 7% in Q3, supported by improving sequential trends in Sweden following the launch of new ZYN flavor variants.

接著談 ZYN；隨著我們投入資源打造品類，ZYN 在國際市場持續帶來可期的成長。年初至今國際出貨量達 15 億袋（pouches），以同口徑（like-for-like）計算成長 6.3%。其中包括第三季較前一季提升 7%，主要受益於瑞典在推出新的 ZYN 口味變體後，逐季趨勢改善。

Strong double-digit progression continued in markets such as Poland, Global Travel Retail and Mexico, partly offset by inventory movements in the United Kingdom and Pakistan. Growth was supported through portfolio innovations such as ZYN Black Menthol, continued category expansion and growing consumer adoption across a broad range of markets.

波蘭、全球旅遊零售與墨西哥等市場持續呈現強勁的兩位數成長，但部分被英國與巴基斯坦的庫存變動所抵銷。成長動能來自產品組合創新（如 ZYN Black Menthol）、品類持續擴張，以及在廣泛市場中消費者採用度提升。

ZYN's year-to-date ex-Nordics IMS growth reached plus 30%, outperforming the industry and growing ahead of shipments. In Europe, our most advanced multicategory region, combined smoke-free IMS volumes for IQOS, ZYN and VEEV increased by approximately plus 8.6% year-to-date and plus 8.9% in Q3, reflecting strong momentum. IQOS adjusted IMS growth strengthened to plus 6% in Q3, notably driven by an acceleration in Germany and Spain.

ZYN 年初至今（不含北歐）IMS 成長達 30%，表現優於產業，且成長速度快於出貨。在歐洲（我們最成熟的多品類區域），IQOS、ZYN 與 VEEV 的無煙（smoke-free）合計 IMS 銷量年初至今約成長 8.6%，第三季成長 8.9%，反映強勁動能。IQOS 經調整 IMS 成長在第三季增強至 6%，主要由德國與西班牙的加速成長所帶動。

Performance was broad-based across the region, with strong growth continuing in Italy, Greece, the United Kingdom and Bulgaria, more than offsetting the impact of disruptions in Ukraine. Excluding headwinds in Poland due to the characterizing flavor ban implementation earlier this year, adjusted IMS growth in Europe was around plus 8%. Our other smoke-free categories continue to scale rapidly.

區域內表現廣泛且均衡，義大利、希臘、英國與保加利亞持續強勁成長，足以抵銷烏克蘭受干擾的影響。若排除波蘭因今年稍早實施特徵性口味禁令所帶來的不利因素，歐洲的經調整 IMS 成長約為 8%。我們其他無煙品類持續快速擴張規模。

VEEV shipment volumes increased by plus 75% year-to-date and plus 66% in Q3 with outstanding growth in Romania, Greece, Germany, France, Bulgaria and Spain. ZYN volumes reached 1 billion pouches year-to-date, accelerating to almost plus 6% growth in Q3 on a like-for-like basis as we invest behind the category.

VEEV 出貨量年初至今成長 75%，第三季成長 66%，在羅馬尼亞、希臘、德國、法國、保加利亞與西班牙均呈現卓越成長。ZYN 年初至今銷量達 10 億袋；在我們加大對品類投入下，以同口徑計算，第三季成長加速至接近 6%。

This was supported by strong progress in markets such as Poland, Austria and Finland in addition to the better Swedish delivery. In Japan, IQOS fundamentals remain strong amidst the volatility of the two-step excise increase on heated tobacco this year. Following a Q2 decline in adjusted IMS volumes due to pantry deloading, HTUs returned to growth in Q3 with an increase of plus 3.4%.

這得益於波蘭、奧地利與芬蘭等市場的強勁進展，以及瑞典表現改善。在日本，儘管今年加熱菸草面臨分兩步調升的消費稅所帶來的波動，IQOS 的基本面仍然強勁。在第二季因消費者去庫存（pantry deloading）導致經調整 IMS 銷量下滑後，HTU 於第三季恢復成長，增幅為 3.4%。

As in Q1, before the April excise-driven price increase of JPY 40 per pack, Q3 IMS growth includes a favorable impact from consumer pantry loading ahead of our JPY 20 increase in October. Excluding this impact, underlying growth was plus 1.3% as consumers gradually adjust to higher prices in an environment where combustible cigarettes did not yet face any excise change.

如同第一季，在 4 月因消費稅驅動每包調價 40 日圓之前，第三季 IMS 成長包含消費者在 10 月我們調價 20 日圓前的提前囤貨（pantry loading）所帶來的有利影響。若排除此影響，基礎成長為 1.3%；在傳統紙菸尚未面臨任何消費稅變動的環境下，消費者正逐步適應較高價格。

This remains in line with our expectations, and we continue to expect growth for the year, notwithstanding a likely softer Q4 as pantry loading again reverses and consumers adapt to a further price increase. Our adjusted heat-not-burn category share remained stable at approximately 68% despite taking more pricing than competitors in April, highlighting the strength of the IQOS proposition.

這仍符合我們的預期；我們仍預期全年將維持成長，儘管第四季可能較為疲弱，因提前囤貨效應再度反轉，且消費者適應進一步的價格上調。儘管我們在 4 月的調價幅度高於競爭對手，我們經調整的加熱不燃燒（heat-not-burn）品類份額仍穩定在約 68%，凸顯 IQOS 價值主張的強勁。

Looking forward, the excise calendar for the next three years looks less disruptive with moderate increases on both combustibles and heated tobacco alike each April. While the April 2027 increase will mark the third change in 12 months with a potential cumulative impact on the consumer, we remain excited about the category's midterm growth potential in Japan.

展望未來，未來三年的消費稅時程看起來干擾較小，傳統紙菸與加熱菸草皆於每年 4 月溫和調升。雖然 2027 年 4 月的調升將成為 12 個月內的第三次變動，可能對消費者造成累積影響，但我們仍對日本市場該品類的中期成長潛力感到振奮。

Although heated tobacco continues to account for over 50% of total nicotine offtake, there remains a substantial pool of smokers yet to switch, supporting our confidence in the capacity for strong IQOS performance in the years ahead. And turning now to the US, where we delivered strong financial performance in Q3, supported by ZYN volume growth of plus 4.2% to 3.2 billion pouches or plus 13%, excluding the impact of one-off promotions in September last year.

儘管加熱菸草仍占總尼古丁銷售（offtake）逾 50%，仍有相當可觀的吸菸者尚未轉換，支持我們對未來數年 IQOS 強勁表現能力的信心。接著談美國；我們在第三季交出強勁的財務表現，主要受 ZYN 銷量成長 4.2% 至 32 億袋所支持；若排除去年 9 月一次性促銷的影響，則成長為 13%。

Sequentially, shipments increased by 10% versus Q2 reflecting category expansion and the ongoing launch of new portfolio variants, which have contributed to an improvement in our category share and should position us well for future growth. We expect Q4 shipment volumes to be broadly in line to modestly above Q3 levels as we continue to expand distribution and support the rollout of the enhanced portfolio.

按季來看，出貨量較第二季增加 10%，反映品類擴張以及新產品組合變體的持續上市；這些因素促成我們品類份額的改善，並應使我們在未來成長上具備良好定位。我們預期第四季出貨量大致與第三季持平至略高，因我們持續擴大通路覆蓋並支持強化版產品組合的推廣。

US net revenues increased by almost 23% and gross profit by plus 24%, with gross margins expanding organically by plus 60 basis points to 64.4%. This was supported by favorable pricing comparisons against the same prior year promotions, notwithstanding the impact of higher manufacturing overheads and start-up costs from our new ZYN facility in Colorado, which is gradually ramping up production.

美國淨營收增加近 23%，毛利成長 24%，毛利率以有機口徑擴張 60 個基點至 64.4%。此表現受益於相較去年同期促銷的有利定價比較；儘管如此，仍受到較高的製造間接費用以及我們位於科羅拉多州的新 ZYN 工廠之啟動成本影響，該工廠正逐步提升產能。

Adjusted operating company income grew by plus 1.5% as we meaningfully increased commercial investments to support the expansion of our ZYN portfolio. Supported by our readiness and ability to launch new products, we are taking significant actions across the second half of this year to strengthen ZYN's competitive position as the leading and premium US smoke-free brand. The first action is the expansion of the ZYN offering in two waves to address a broader range of legal age nicotine consumer preferences.

經調整後的營運公司收入成長1.5%，因為我們大幅增加商業投資以支持ZYN產品組合的擴張。在我們已具備推出新產品的準備度與能力的支持下，我們在今年下半年採取重大行動，以強化ZYN作為美國領先且高端的無煙品牌之競爭地位。第一項行動是分兩波擴大ZYN產品供應，以滿足更廣泛的法定年齡尼古丁消費者偏好。

The first wave of expansion comprises the higher-nicotine moist range of ZYN ULTRA and an expanded flavor lineup for our flagship dry portfolio, which are now approaching full distribution. While we're still building consumer awareness around our new range, especially for ZYN ULTRA, we are encouraged by the initial consumer reaction. Indeed, following several quarters of volume progress below the category growth rate, ZYN's category offtake share increased by an estimated 1.4 points from June to September, demonstrating the incremental contribution of the new variants and interest from competitor pouch consumers.

第一波擴張包括尼古丁含量較高的濕潤系列ZYN ULTRA，以及我們旗艦乾式產品組合的擴增口味陣容，目前正接近全面鋪貨。雖然我們仍在建立消費者對新系列的認知，尤其是對ZYN ULTRA，但我們對初期的消費者反應感到鼓舞。事實上，在數個季度的銷量進展低於品類成長率之後，ZYN的品類終端銷售（offtake）市占率在6月至9月間估計提升了1.4個百分點，顯示新口味/規格的增量貢獻以及競品袋裝產品消費者的興趣。

We also began shipments of the second wave of product introductions in the quarter with new flagship variants in both 1.5-milligram and 8-milligram strengths, further broadening the consumer offer and supporting our objective of encouraging legal age nicotine users to switch to the category.

本季度我們也開始出貨第二波新品導入，推出1.5毫克與8毫克兩種濃度的新旗艦款式，進一步擴大消費者選擇，並支持我們鼓勵法定年齡尼古丁使用者轉向該品類的目標。

The second important action is to align the value proposition across the portfolio and optimize ZYN's per-pouch price positioning. We began this process over the summer with the launch of ZYN ULTRA in 20-pouch cans. And starting in October, we're now transitioning our 1.5, our 3 and our 6-milligram flagship variants from 15 to 20 pouches. These variants represent a large majority of our volumes.

第二項重要行動是統一整個產品組合的價值主張，並優化ZYN每袋（per-pouch）的價格定位。我們在夏季以推出20袋裝的ZYN ULTRA罐裝產品開始此一流程。自10月起，我們正將1.5、3與6毫克的旗艦款式由15袋裝轉為20袋裝。這些款式占我們銷量的絕大多數。

And as we work to execute the change smoothly for both consumers and trade partners, we expect the transition to be largely complete in the fourth quarter. As we flagged at Q2 earnings and in subsequent communications, these actions are accompanied by an H2 step-up in investments.

在我們致力於讓消費者與通路夥伴都能順利完成變更之際，我們預期此一轉換將在第四季大致完成。如同我們在第二季財報及後續溝通中所提示，這些行動伴隨著下半年（H2）投資的提升。

Total US segment SG&A increased significantly to around $370 million in Q3, and we expect a further exceptional sequential increase of around 10% in Q4. This reflects increased consumer communication to build awareness of the expanded portfolio and enhanced value proposition, together with the ramp-up of our When It Clicks brand campaign.

美國事業部門的SG&A在第三季大幅增加至約3.70億美元，我們預期第四季將再出現約10%的顯著季增。這反映了為提升擴增後產品組合與強化價值主張之認知而增加的消費者溝通投入，以及我們「When It Clicks」品牌活動的加速推進。

Looking beyond Q4, we view the Q3 level of spend to be sufficient to support the brand. The transition to 20-pouch cans represents a significant investment in consumer value, which, all else equal, translates into approximately 25% less revenue per pouch. Combined with additional short-term support on the existing 15-pouch variants to manage the sellout at retail, this will impact Q4 net revenues.

展望第四季之後，我們認為第三季的支出水準足以支持品牌發展。轉換為20袋裝罐裝代表對消費者價值的一項重大投資，在其他條件不變下，等同於每袋收入約減少25%。再加上為管理既有15袋裝款式在零售端的售罄（sellout）而提供的額外短期支持，這將影響第四季淨營收。

Indeed, taking the aggregate impact of these actions and the expansion of our manufacturing capacity to support future growth, Q4 will be a unique quarter of investment. We expect an abnormally low level of US profitability in the fourth quarter with adjusted OCI around 0 or slightly negative.

確實，綜合這些行動的整體影響，以及我們為支持未來成長而擴充製造產能，第四季將是一個投資特別集中的季度。我們預期第四季美國獲利能力將異常偏低，經調整後OCI約為0或略為負值。

Our leading global position and strong growth profile reflects continuous investment for mid- and long-term growth, and we are excited to be implementing the significant improvements to our ZYN consumer offer. With a fast-growing category and ZYN's leading brand equity, we believe we are positioning the brand for strong and sustainable growth over the coming years.

我們在全球的領先地位與強勁成長態勢，反映了為中長期成長所做的持續投資；我們也很高興能落實對ZYN消費者產品供給的重大改善。在品類快速成長且ZYN具備領先品牌資產的背景下，我們相信正為品牌在未來數年實現強勁且可持續的成長奠定定位。

And finally, turning to combustibles, which posted an exceptional Q3 performance. Pricing remained a key driver, reaching plus 8.9% in the third quarter and plus 9.1% year-to-date, with broad-based contributions across markets, including Turkey, the Philippines, Indonesia and Poland. We now expect full year pricing of above 8% with the net revenue impact partially offset by a more unfavorable geographic mix.

最後，談到可燃產品（combustibles），其第三季表現格外出色。定價仍是關鍵驅動因素，第三季達到+8.9%，年初至今達到+9.1%，且在多個市場均有廣泛貢獻，包括土耳其、菲律賓、印尼與波蘭。我們目前預期全年定價將高於8%，但其對淨營收的影響將部分被更不利的地理組合所抵銷。

Despite the strong pricing, our portfolio increased Q3 international category share by 0.4 points to 25.9%, driven by Marlboro, which reached an all-time record high of 11.4%. The strong share performance and robust pricing drove another quarter of excellent profitability with international combustible gross profit increasing by plus 9.8% in Q3 and plus 7.4% year-to-date.

儘管定價強勁，我們的產品組合在第三季的國際品類市占率仍提升0.4個百分點至25.9%，主要由Marlboro帶動，其市占率達到歷史新高的11.4%。強勁的市占表現與穩健的定價推動獲利再度繳出亮眼一季，第三季國際可燃產品毛利成長+9.8%，年初至今成長+7.4%。

And this brings me to our outlook for the full year, where we're targeting a second consecutive year of double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms. Indeed, following our strong first nine months, we are on track for another year of excellent performance as we continue to invest behind smoke-free growth.

接著談到我們對全年展望：我們的目標是在美元計價下，連續第二年實現經調整後稀釋EPS的雙位數成長。事實上，在前九個月表現強勁之後，隨著我們持續加大對無煙成長的投資，我們正朝著再度交出優異年度表現的方向前進。

We now expect growing total shipment volumes for the year, making 2026 our sixth consecutive year of growth. For net revenues, we continue to forecast plus 5% to plus 7% organic growth. Moreover, given the strong year-to-date delivery and our expectation for a robust fourth quarter led by international smoke-free, we believe the business could deliver in the middle or upper half of this range.

我們目前預期全年總出貨量將成長，使2026年成為我們連續第六年成長。就淨營收而言，我們仍預測有機成長+5%至+7%。此外，鑑於年初至今的強勁交付表現，以及我們預期在國際無煙業務帶動下第四季將相當強勁，我們認為公司有機會落在此區間的中段或上半部。

At the operating income level, we continue to expect organic growth of 7% to 9%, reflecting strong inherent margin expansion from our top line performance and productivities. And despite our substantial ongoing investment in SFP internationally and in the US, our forecast range for currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth also remains at 7.5% to 9.5% with a favorable currency impact at prevailing exchange rates of approximately $0.18, notably including recent weakness in the euro, this results in an adjusted diluted EPS range of $8.29 to $8.44, representing growth of approximately plus 10% to plus 12% in dollar terms.

在營業利益層面，我們仍預期有機成長7%至9%，反映出在營收表現與生產力推動下的強勁內生成本率（margin）擴張。儘管我們在國際與美國對SFP的持續大量投資，我們對以固定匯率計算的經調整後稀釋EPS成長預測區間仍維持在7.5%至9.5%；按目前匯率估計有利的匯率影響約為0.18美元，特別包含近期歐元走弱，據此形成經調整後稀釋EPS區間為8.29至8.44美元，代表以美元計價約+10%至+12%的成長。

However, considering the significant H2 step-up in US investments and the cost impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, we see the full year delivery more likely to be at the midpoint or lower half of both brackets. Although the inflationary outlook remains uncertain, most notably the persistence of energy-related inflation linked to the conflict in the Middle East, the prices of certain inputs have begun to reflect the increases in energy and shipping costs.

然而，考量美國下半年投資顯著提升，以及持續地緣政治緊張帶來的成本影響，我們認為全年交付結果更可能落在兩個區間的中點或下半部。雖然通膨前景仍不確定，尤其是與中東衝突相關、能源帶動的通膨持續存在，但部分投入成本的價格已開始反映能源與運輸成本上升。

While we are less exposed than many other areas of consumer goods, and this remains manageable overall, these factors were a headwind in the third quarter and are expected to evolve further in Q4 as a greater proportion of increased input prices flow through. Overall, we estimate the impact on full year adjusted diluted EPS growth to be around 0.5 percentage point in addition to a similar-sized headwind from disruptions in Ukraine.

雖然相較於許多其他消費品領域我們受影響較小，且整體仍可控，但這些因素在第三季形成逆風，並預期在第四季將進一步演變，因為更高比例的投入成本上漲將逐步反映出來。整體而言，我們估計其對全年經調整後稀釋EPS成長的影響約為0.5個百分點，此外還有來自烏克蘭中斷的類似規模逆風。

This results in a combined impact of approximately 1 point of growth for the year. For Q4 more broadly, we anticipate a strong net revenue and OCI performance from our international business, including a reacceleration in smoke-free performance. We expect continued robust adjusted IMS growth and HTU shipment volumes of 39.5 billion to 40.5 billion units, consistent with our comments on shipment phasing.

因此，兩者合計對全年成長的影響約為1個百分點。就第四季更廣泛的情況而言，我們預期國際業務將帶來強勁的淨營收與OCI表現，包括無煙業務表現再度加速。我們預期經調整後IMS將持續強勁成長，且HTU出貨量為395億至405億支，與我們對出貨節奏的說明一致。

In contrast, this will be a unique quarter of elevated investment and portfolio transition for the US for the reasons I explained. Despite the special quarter for the US, we expect a strong delivery for the group overall as captured in our full year outlook. We also expect to generate a record level of approximately $13.5 billion in operating cash flow, testament to our strong cash flow generation.

相較之下，基於我先前說明的原因，第四季對美國而言將是一個投資提高且產品組合轉換的特殊季度。儘管美國面臨此一特殊季度，我們仍預期集團整體將如全年展望所示交出強勁表現。我們也預期將創下約135億美元的營運現金流新高，證明我們強勁的現金流創造能力。

This provides substantial flexibility to invest behind future growth while continuing to deleverage and deliver attractive shareholder returns. So let me now conclude with a few key takeaways. Our year-to-date performance reflects the quality of our underlying fundamentals, positioning us for another year of superior top and bottom-line growth as we continue to invest substantially behind future opportunities.

這為我們在持續去槓桿並為股東帶來具吸引力回報的同時，提供了相當大的彈性，以投入未來成長。那麼我現在用幾個重點結論作結。我們年初至今的表現反映了我們基本面品質之優異，讓我們在持續大力投資未來機會的同時，有望再迎來一年營收與獲利雙雙優於同業的成長。

This reflects the durability of our model, supported by category-leading brands, strong pricing power, disciplined cost management and the increasing scale of IQOS, ZYN and VEEV. We remain a highly cash-generative business with an unwavering commitment to our progressive dividend policy and to rewarding shareholders.

這反映了我們商業模式的韌性，其背後有品類領先的品牌、強勁的定價能力、嚴謹的成本管理，以及 IQOS、ZYN 與 VEEV 規模持續擴大作為支撐。我們仍是一家高度創造現金的企業，並堅定承諾推進式股利政策與回饋股東。

In September, we raised our dividend for the 19th consecutive year to $6.40 per share, with another increase of almost 9%. Looking ahead, we remain confident in our mid- and long-term trajectory, which reflects the unique strengths of PMI's growth model.

9 月，我們連續第 19 年調升股利至每股 6.40 美元，再度上調近 9%。展望未來，我們對中長期發展軌跡仍具信心，這反映了 PMI 成長模式的獨特優勢。

Structural smoke-free momentum built on science, innovation, commercial strength and brand building, allied to combustible resilience and effective reinvestment. We look forward to sharing more on these elements at our next Investor Day, which we plan to hold in Q2 next year.

以科學、創新、商業實力與品牌打造為基礎的無煙結構性動能，並結合可燃產品的韌性與有效的再投資。我們期待在下一次投資人日分享更多相關內容，該活動預計於明年第二季舉行。

Thank you very much for listening, and we are now happy to answer your questions.

非常感謝各位收聽，接下來我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

I guess my first question is on your guidance. Your Q3 came in better on both the top line and EPS versus your guidance for the quarter. Yet as you mentioned, you're pointing to the middle or lower half of your full year organic op income growth guidance, and it sounds like on your EPS growth guidance as well.

我想我的第一個問題是關於你們的財測指引。你們第三季在營收與 EPS 兩方面都優於當季指引。然而如你所提到的，你們仍指向全年有機營業利益成長指引區間的中位或下半部，聽起來 EPS 成長指引也是如此。

I know you called out the higher cost pressures from the ongoing geopolitical tensions. But I really did want to verify if you're also now planning on spending more in the US. For instance, are you finding that it's now costing you more to implement some of the strategic initiatives that you've called out, such as putting 20 pouches in all ZYN cans? And then how should we think about some of these higher costs and spending in the US on your profitability and EPS growth next year?

我知道你提到了持續的地緣政治緊張所帶來的更高成本壓力。但我確實想確認，你們是否也打算在美國投入更多支出。例如，你們是否發現，推動你們提到的一些策略性措施（例如所有 ZYN 罐裝都改為 20 包）現在的執行成本更高？另外，我們應如何看待美國這些較高成本與支出，對你們明年的獲利能力與 EPS 成長的影響？

Thank you very much, Bonnie. Nice to hear from you. So you're right. So our guidance points for the OI and for the EPS for the full year towards the mid or lower half of the range. And as you could read the predominant element that we have in there, there are two predominant elements fundamentally.

非常感謝你，Bonnie。很高興聽到你的提問。你說得沒錯。我們對全年營業利益（OI）與 EPS 的指引，確實指向區間的中位或下半部。而如你所見，我們在其中納入的主要因素，基本上有兩個主要面向。

One is the cost pressure that is coming from geopolitical elements. This cost pressure has been increasing over the year, and we start feeling more the impact of that during Q3 and Q4. We guided you to a full year impact of 0.5 point of EPS. You could read that, therefore, the flow in is mostly in H2.

第一個是來自地緣政治因素的成本壓力。這項成本壓力在一年中持續上升，我們在第三季與第四季開始更明顯感受到其影響。我們指引全年對 EPS 的影響為 0.5 個百分點。因此你可以理解，影響主要會在下半年反映。

And we guided you to another 0.5 point that is coming from disruptions, which are kind of one-off things that have happened in Ukraine due to sadly three events of bombing of some of our supply chain facilities and therefore, destruction of goods. Now quite frankly, if you look at that and you look at our guidance, that constitutes 1 point, and it means that just that one, if we had not had those impacts, we would be mid- to higher half of the range.

我們也指引另一個 0.5 個百分點的影響，來自於一些干擾因素，也就是在烏克蘭發生的、某種程度上屬於一次性的事件；遺憾的是，我們供應鏈設施遭到三次轟炸，導致部分商品被毀。坦白說，如果你把這些因素與我們的指引放在一起看，這合計就是 1 個百分點；也就是說，若沒有這些影響，我們本來會落在區間的中位到上半部。

And the other important element that there is in the quarter and especially in Q4 is the exceptional level of investment that we are making in the US I assume you will all acknowledge that the investment that we are making in the US over the course of Q3 and Q4 is exceptional by all means. And I would point you out to a couple of elements in that.

另一個重要因素是在本季、尤其是第四季，我們在美國進行了非常高水準的投資。我想各位都會認同，我們在第三季與第四季於美國所做的投資，無論如何都屬於非常例外的水準。我想指出其中幾個要點。

First and foremost, the fact that we are moving our flagship portfolio to an optimized premium price positioning, which de facto means a better value proposition for the consumers. And in practical terms, it means a 25% price reduction on a per pouch basis. So we are migrating our entire flagship portfolio from 15 to 20 count at the price of the 15 cans.

首先也是最重要的是，我們正將旗艦產品組合調整至最佳化的高端定價定位，這在事實上意味著為消費者提供更好的價值主張。以實務面來說，這代表以每包（pouch）計算的價格下調 25%。因此，我們正把整個旗艦產品組合從每罐 15 包，移轉為每罐 20 包，但價格維持在原本 15 包裝的價位。

That alone, as you can understand, has an impact on the revenue line of it. As we go through a phase of transition over the course of Q4, we will accompany that with commercial activities at retail level, which are revenue line impacting activities in order to ease the sell-out of the remaining 15-count cans in the market.

如你所理解，僅此一項就會對營收端造成影響。在第四季的過渡期間，我們也會在零售端搭配商業活動；這些活動會影響營收端，目的是協助市場上剩餘的 15 包裝罐順利出清。

And the third step that we take is an exceptional investment that is already flowing in, in Q3, and we guided to a potential increase over Q4 exceptionally by 10% versus the Q3 impact. So we said about $370 million in Q3 and a 10% increase exceptionally in Q4 in order to continue to do a couple of things. The first one is continue to build ZYN into the strongest smoke-free brand in the US.

第三步是我們正在進行的一項例外性投資，第三季已開始反映；我們也指引第四季可能在第三季影響的基礎上，例外性再增加 10%。我們提到第三季約 3.70 億美元，並在第四季例外性增加 10%，以便持續推動幾件事情。第一是持續把 ZYN 打造成美國最強的無煙品牌。

And the second element is we have practically tripled our portfolio of variants of nicotine pouches over the course of the year. And we are making this value optimization in terms of price adjustment. And therefore, we want to step up both branding communication with the -- When It Clicks campaigns and continue to expand that.

第二個面向是，我們在一年內幾乎將尼古丁口含包的口味／規格（variants）產品組合擴增至三倍。同時我們也在進行這項價值最佳化，也就是價格調整。因此，我們希望加大品牌溝通力道，透過「When It Clicks」行銷活動並持續擴大推廣。

But at the same time, we want to do something very important that is continue to build the awareness of consumers around the existence of this new variants, but also the awareness on the new price of the product. You should interpret all these elements as elements that for Q4 are going to be even ramped up versus Q3.

但同時，我們也想做一件非常重要的事：持續提升消費者對這些新口味／規格存在的認知，同時也提升對產品新價格的認知。你應該把這些因素理解為：第四季的投入將會比第三季進一步加碼。

But as we said in the guidance, you could assume that the Q3 level of cost would be a good proxy for what the level of commercial investment is going to be over the course of next year. So when you put all of these things together, Bonnie, quite frankly, I see strength in the guidance that we are giving for the bottom line and for the EPS in that we are moving it to the mid and bottom half of the range just for the correction of the cost that I detailed before.

但如同我們在指引中所說，你可以假設第三季的成本水準，將是明年全年商業投資水準的一個良好參考。因此，把這些因素合在一起看，Bonnie，坦白說，我認為我們對獲利與 EPS 所給出的指引其實展現出韌性：我們之所以把它調整到區間的中位與下半部，主要只是為了反映我先前所詳述的成本修正。

And we are de facto almost absorbing the strong investments that we are making in the US, supported by the strength in all the rest of the business. In other words, if we were not for those inflationary pressures, which we have felt to a much lower extent from what I'm seeing in the disclosures of other FMCG companies in the areas, we have felt to a much, much more manageable level than many other companies. If we were not for those, we would actually be in the mid- to upper end of the range. I hope I addressed your questions.

而我們基本上幾乎是在吸收我們在美國所做的強勁投資，並由其他業務的強勢表現提供支撐。換句話說，若不是因為那些通膨壓力——就我從其他快速消費品（FMCG）公司的揭露來看，我們受到的程度其實低得多；我們感受到的壓力遠比許多公司更可控——若不是因為那些因素，我們其實會落在區間的中位到上緣。希望我已回答你的問題。

No, definitely, that was helpful. And just to confirm, Massimo, that as I think about next year, the spend levels in the US this year, I think about that continuing next year. Did I hear that correctly?

有的，確實很有幫助。我想再確認一下，Massimo，當我思考明年時，美國今年的支出水準，我應該把它視為明年也會延續。我理解得對嗎？

I think what we guided towards is the fact that the spend level that you are seeing in Q3 is a good proxy for the run rate that we're going to have next year. In Q3, consider that there is another element, which is a higher cost that is the fact that we have just started up our Colorado facility.

我認為我們所引導的重點是，您在第三季看到的支出水準，是我們明年將會有的執行率（run rate）的良好替代指標（proxy）。在第三季，請考量還有另一個因素，也就是較高的成本：我們剛啟用科羅拉多（Colorado）廠。

So the level of loading in that facility is low, and therefore, the impact from the overheads there. So you're going to find yourself next year with kind of a cost level where Q3 is a good proxy. And obviously, we are banking on the future growth of the category next year, and we are bolstered by the share results that we have seen from June until now.

因此該廠目前的產能負載率偏低，因而帶來的間接費用（overheads）影響也在那裡。所以明年您會看到的成本水準，大致上第三季是一個很好的替代指標。而且很明顯地，我們是以明年品類的未來成長為前提在規劃，同時也受到我們自六月至今所看到的市占結果所支撐。

Okay. And yes, maybe just a couple of quick follow-ups on ZYN because you touched on it. So I'd be curious to hear from your perspective, how some of the recent ZYN innovations that you've rolled out have been performing relative to your internal expectations? And maybe ultimately, how incremental do you think the innovations will be to flagship ZYN?

好的。是的，或許再針對 ZYN 做幾個快速追問，因為您剛剛提到了。我想從您的角度了解，近期您推出的一些 ZYN 創新產品，其表現相較於公司內部預期如何？以及最終來看，您認為這些創新對於旗艦 ZYN 會有多大的增量貢獻（incremental）？

And then second, on the move to 20 pouches in each of the ZYN can. I'm curious how you see this impacting consumer behavior, if at all? For instance, do you see it, I don't know, as a headwind to volumes? Or could it be a possible tailwind if consumers now consume more since they have more pouches in each can they buy? Just kind of trying to think through that.

第二個問題是，關於每罐 ZYN 改為 20 包（pouches）。我想了解您認為這會如何影響消費者行為（如果會的話）？例如，您是否認為這會對銷量形成逆風（headwind）？或者反而可能成為順風（tailwind），因為消費者每次買到一罐就有更多包，可能會用得更多？我只是想把這個邏輯梳理一下。

Okay. So we're very excited with the initial results of both the expansion of flavors on our flagship dry portfolio and the introduction of the higher nicotine levels of 9 and 11 in our ULTRA portfolio. I must tell you that the feedback that we have gotten from consumers, and I had the opportunity a couple of weeks ago to be in the US and do a deep dive on that has been overwhelmingly positive.

好的。我們對兩項初期結果都非常振奮：一是我們旗艦乾式（dry）產品組合的口味擴充；二是我們 ULTRA 產品組合導入 9 與 11 的較高尼古丁濃度。我必須告訴您，我們從消費者那裡收到的回饋——而我在幾週前也有機會到美國就此做深入了解——整體而言是壓倒性地正面。

And this includes both existing ZYN consumers that were really looking forward to having more flavor options at the three or six levels that they were used to. And the feedback on actually those flavors of dry have been really super positive, but also consumers that were wondering why ZYN did not have a higher nicotine level proposition and that might have otherwise considered going to competition.

這包括既有的 ZYN 消費者，他們一直很期待在原本習慣的 3 或 6 濃度等級上，能有更多口味選擇。而對於這些乾式口味本身的回饋也非常、非常正面；同時也包括一些消費者，他們一直在想為什麼 ZYN 沒有更高尼古丁濃度的產品主張（proposition），否則他們可能會考慮轉向競品。

Quite frankly, in data that we have seen from our consumer research, we see that there has been high interest in what we have launched. We have seen an inflow both of legal age smokers that are coming into the category, but also of competitors' users and people in the case of 9 and 11 that had left ZYN to go to competitors' propositions in higher nicotine levels and who have come back into ZYN, thanks to those launches. So we see all of that in the share.

坦白說，從我們消費者研究所看到的數據來看，市場對我們推出的新品有很高的興趣。我們看到有兩方面的流入：一是達法定年齡的吸菸者進入這個品類；二是競品使用者的流入；另外就 9 與 11 而言，也包括一些曾為了更高尼古丁濃度的競品主張而離開 ZYN 的人，因為這些新品上市而回流到 ZYN。所以我們在市占上也看得到這些變化。

As you see, the share is positive since June and since we started these launches. And therefore, I can only imagine that with the adaptation at this point of the price premium, we should be seeing even more competitiveness and more strength going forward. Regarding your question on consumer behavior.

如您所見，自六月、以及我們開始推出這些新品以來，市占表現是正向的。因此我只能想像，隨著目前價格溢價（price premium）的調整到位，我們未來應該會看到更強的競爭力與更大的動能。至於您問到的消費者行為。

Well, Bonnie, let's wait and see. I can tell you my personal experience, when I have more in the pocket, I tend to consume more. I see it with my kids when they buy juices and other things. The more you have in the fridge, the more you take. So we can only assume that that's going to be the case.

嗯，Bonnie，我們就拭目以待吧。我可以分享我個人的經驗：當我口袋裡有更多時，我往往會用得更多。我也在我孩子身上看到同樣情況，他們買果汁或其他東西時也是如此。冰箱裡越多，你就越常拿。所以我們只能假設情況可能也會是這樣。

There is one thing that I will comment on, however, from my experience in international. As consumers come into the category and get used to it and they stay with the category, we see two things happening. Consumers tend to trend up a little bit on the nicotine. But as they stay in the category, their average daily consumption tends to trend up. You may argue that in the US today, where the category is at its beginning, you are probably in the low single digit in terms of average daily consumption.

不過有一點我想補充，基於我在國際市場的經驗。當消費者進入這個品類、逐漸習慣並持續留在品類中時，我們會看到兩件事發生。消費者在尼古丁濃度上往往會略微往上走。但隨著他們留在品類中，他們的日均使用量（average daily consumption）也傾向上升。你可以說在今天的美國，這個品類仍在起步階段，日均使用量可能還在低個位數。

If you go to markets where the category has been present for longer, you're actually seeing more high single-digit daily consumption. So that is another element of category growth that we can all look forward to.

如果你去看這個品類存在更久的市場，你其實會看到更高的個位數日均使用量。所以這也是我們都可以期待的、推動品類成長的另一個因素。

Okay, great. Thank you for all of that. I'll pass it on.

好的，很好。謝謝你分享這些。我把問題交給下一位。

Thank you very much, Bonnie.

非常感謝你，Bonnie。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

Matt Smith，Stifel。

I thank you for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on your inflationary comments and the impact. You called out the 0.5 point of drag on EPS for the year with some impact in 3Q and higher in 4Q. So if you just isolate the fourth quarter, should we think of that as over a 1 point drag on profit?

謝謝讓我提問。我想追問您剛才對通膨的評論及其影響。您提到今年 EPS 會有 0.5 個百分點的拖累（drag），其中第三季有一些影響、第四季更高。那如果只看第四季，我們是否應該把它理解為對獲利超過 1 個百分點的拖累？

And how do you view levers to offset the impact going forward? You realized your cost savings target ahead of schedule and pricing has run above historical levels. But how do you view both of those now going forward?

另外，您如何看待未來用哪些槓桿來抵銷這個影響？你們已提前達成成本節省目標，而且定價也高於歷史水準。但往後你們如何看待這兩者的走勢？

Thank you, Matt. Well, let's, first of all, say one thing. This is a very volatile situation that this inflation is coming from because it's coming from a geopolitical conflict predominantly in the Middle East that is driving energy prices up and therefore, a variety of inputs and services.

謝謝你，Matt。嗯，首先我想先說一點。這次通膨的來源是一個非常波動的情勢，因為它主要來自中東的地緣政治衝突，推升能源價格，進而帶動各種投入成本與服務成本上升。

And as we have showed in the past, we have a certain resilience in our supply chain. In fact, despite the fact that the conflict has been lasting also for the first half of the year, we're only seeing these elements of costs flowing more meaningfully into our P&L in the second half of the year.

而且如同我們過去所展示的，我們的供應鏈具備一定的韌性。事實上，儘管這場衝突在今年上半年也持續存在，但我們直到下半年才看到這些成本因素更明顯地反映到我們的損益表（P&L）中。

I'm not going to guide you on the precise split of those elements across the various quarters. But the Q4 is probably the quarter in which we are feeling it the most purely from a timing perspective because those higher-priced inputs are coming in now. What I would tell you is we have been through this before.

我不會就這些因素在各季度之間的精確分配提供指引。但從時間點來看，第四季可能是我們感受最明顯的一季，因為那些較高價格的投入品現在才開始進來。我想告訴你的是，我們以前也經歷過這種情況。

You may remember at the times of the beginning of the war in Ukraine, and we have showed repeatedly the resilience of our model and our ability to mitigate those costs. Quite frankly, you're seeing it now again because when you compare our 0.5 point that we are guiding for this year to what is being guided by many of our other peer companies who operate in the area, you see significantly higher impacts from that, which is a testament to the resilience of our supply chain and the fact that we have a broadly sourced set of materials that come from all over the world and therefore -- and also contracts which protect us over a period of time that will allow us to navigate this.

你可能還記得烏克蘭戰爭剛開始的時候，而我們也一再展現我們商業模式的韌性，以及我們緩解這些成本的能力。坦白說，你現在又再次看到了：當你把我們今年所指引的 0.5 個百分點，與許多在該地區營運的同業公司所給出的指引相比，你會看到他們受到的影響顯著更高；這也證明了我們供應鏈的韌性，以及我們材料來源廣泛、遍及全球——因此——再加上能在一段期間內保護我們的合約，讓我們得以因應並渡過這段情勢。

Having said that, all of those protections cannot last forever. The situation is very volatile. In the same way as it is impacting now, it may disappear the moment that the conditions on the ground go back to normal. And to your last point, look, we have demonstrated this year and also in previous years that we have very strong pricing power, and we are entering 2027 with probably a super strong P&L at this point and balance sheet, by the way, as well.

話雖如此，所有這些保護措施都不可能永遠持續。情勢非常動盪。就像它現在正在造成影響一樣，一旦當地條件恢復正常，它也可能在瞬間消失。至於你最後一點，你看，我們今年以及過去幾年都已經證明我們擁有非常強的定價能力；而且我們正邁入2027年，以目前來看，可能會有一份超強的損益表（P&L）以及資產負債表，順帶一提也是如此。

With margins expanding at gross level, at operating income level, you have seen that year-to-date, we've expanded 80 points the margin at gross level and 60 points at operating level. So we're entering 2027 strong and therefore, in an excellent position to be able to manage those impacts should that move forward.

隨著毛利率在毛利層級、以及營業利益層級擴張，你已經看到今年迄今，我們在毛利層級的利潤率擴張了80個基點，在營業層級擴張了60個基點。因此我們將以強勢姿態進入2027年，並因此處於極佳位置，能夠在這些影響若持續推進時加以因應。

And if I could ask a follow-up. You changed your guidance a bit for the heated tobacco IQOS shipment versus in-market sales growth guidance. I think now you expect shipments to slightly trail IMS. Can you talk about the -- or give more detail on that gap? And how do you view inventory levels as you're exiting 2026? Are those at a normal level? Or is this gap an opportunity to further catch up as you go forward?

如果我可以追問一下。你們對加熱菸草IQOS的出貨量指引，相較於終端市場銷售（IMS）成長指引，做了一些調整。我想你們現在預期出貨量會略微落後IMS。你能談談——或更詳細說明——這個差距嗎？以及你們如何看待在2026年結束時的庫存水位？那會是在正常水準嗎？或者這個差距是否代表未來還有進一步追趕的空間？

Thank you for that question, Matt. Look, we have to take the fact that 2026 has been a bit of a peculiar year for heat-not-burn in that there has been -- especially one event, there has been this taxation and therefore, tax-driven pricing in Japan, not once but twice.

謝謝你的問題，Matt。你看，我們必須考量到2026年對加熱不燃燒（HNB）而言是有點特殊的一年，因為——尤其是一個事件——日本出現了課稅，因此在日本發生了由稅負驅動的調價，而且不是一次，而是兩次。

And therefore, a variety of preparatory steps for that unprecedented event took place both last year when in the end of the year, the shipments were higher, exactly for us to prepare for pantry loading that happens from consumers that are not used to that level of price change, both at retailer level and at consumer level.

因此，針對這個前所未有的事件，我們採取了各種前置準備措施；這些措施在去年也有進行，當時在年底出貨量較高，正是為了讓我們能夠因應消費者的「囤貨」（pantry loading）。對於不習慣如此幅度價格變動的消費者而言，這種囤貨會在零售端與消費者端同時發生。

So you saw that there is a phasing of shipments where we have significantly higher shipments in the first half of the year in H1 and lower shipments in H2. When you look at what we just showed, you saw that the trend in IMS also reflects the pantry loading in Japan.

所以你看到出貨節奏的變化：上半年（H1）出貨顯著較高、下半年（H2）出貨較低。當你看我們剛剛展示的內容，你也會看到IMS的趨勢同樣反映了日本的囤貨效應。

And given that our April pricing was of JPY 40, but our October pricing is of JPY 20, we're seeing obviously less pantry loading from the consumers given the smaller increase that is happening in the second half of the year as we are seeing -- as we saw in the first half of the year, which means we entered into well equipped from a shipment level.

而且鑑於我們4月的調價是日圓40元，但10月的調價是日圓20元，顯然由於下半年發生的漲幅較小，我們看到消費者的囤貨行為也較少；相較之下，上半年如我們所見的囤貨更明顯，這也意味著我們在出貨層面是以更充足的準備進入下半年。

And therefore, with that phasing of shipments, IMS are going to run ahead slightly of shipments. And therefore, you will see inventories coming down, but always at a very healthy level. And therefore, we also take the benefit on the working capital side.

因此，在這樣的出貨節奏下，IMS將會略微領先出貨量。因此你會看到庫存下降，但始終會維持在非常健康的水準。同時，我們也能在營運資金面受益。

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

謝謝。我把問題交給下一位。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，Matt。

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Eric Serotta。

First, could you talk a little bit about puts and takes for international smoke-free growth next year, realizing you're not going to give us guidance today. But clearly, this was a -- '26 was an extraordinary year. You talked about some less unfavorable or a more normal tax environment in Japan next year.

首先，能否談談明年國際無煙產品成長的主要推動與抵銷因素（puts and takes），我知道你們今天不會提供指引。但很明顯，2026年是——非常不尋常的一年。你們提到明年日本的稅務環境會較不不利、或更回歸正常。

You'll be cycling the flavor ban in Poland. Any other big considerations to keep in mind as we start to think about international smoke-free IQOS next year? I know there's a tax changes in Germany, much smaller than Japan, but I believe impacts HTUs. But anything more broadly in terms of puts and takes for next year for IQOS internationally?

你們也將度過波蘭的口味禁令基期。在我們開始思考明年國際無煙IQOS時，還有其他需要留意的重要因素嗎？我知道德國有稅制變動，幅度比日本小得多，但我相信會影響HTU。不過就更廣泛而言，明年IQOS在國際市場的推動與抵銷因素還有哪些？

Thank you very much, Eric, for the question. Well, look, I'm not going to provide guidance for next year. We're going to talk about that one in February. But as you said, puts and takes, so I'll give you my takes on this. So my first take that I would give is if you look at our IQOS performance over the course of the year, we have displayed that there is strong momentum in terms of IMS of IQOS.

非常感謝你的提問，Eric。你看，我不會在今天提供明年的指引。我們會在2月再談這個。但如你所說，關於推動與抵銷因素，我可以分享我的看法。我第一個想說的是，如果你看我們IQOS在今年整體的表現，我們展現了IQOS在IMS方面的強勁動能。

And the thing that I would remark here is that the geographical base over which that growth is spread is becoming wider and wider. So you saw that we presented year-to-date 7.7% adjusted IMS growth. If you take out the impact from Japan and Poland, we are at 10.8% IMS growth. You could compare that with 2025, which was at 10.6%, which means that you see that, that momentum is there and is actually increasing.

我在這裡要強調的是，這個成長所涵蓋的地理基礎正變得越來越廣。所以你看到我們今年迄今呈現7.7%的調整後IMS成長。如果扣除日本與波蘭的影響，我們的IMS成長為10.8%。你可以把這與2025年的10.6%相比，這表示你會看到動能確實存在，而且實際上正在增強。

And this increase is also related to the fact that there are more and more markets that have double-digit growth in IMS and sizable markets. You have in double digit at this point, Italy, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, many of these markets were not markets that were on the list previously, meaning these were markets where we started investing a few years ago and where we are seeing the results coming.

而這個增長也與越來越多市場出現IMS雙位數成長、且這些市場規模可觀有關。目前雙位數成長的市場包括義大利、希臘、西班牙、荷蘭、英國、德國；其中許多市場過去並不在名單上，也就是說，這些是我們幾年前開始投資、如今看到成果的市場。

We're seeing Indonesia with excellent growth, Mexico, Saudi, Taiwan, where we have captured more than 80% of the share in the category. GTR, Global Travel Retail that continues to contribute positively. So you see that the momentum from an IMS perspective, when you take out those onetime events of Japan and Poland is there and the geographic diversification of the growth gives me confidence for the resilience of that growth.

我們也看到印尼有非常出色的成長、墨西哥、沙烏地、台灣——我們在該品類的市占已超過80%。GTR（Global Travel Retail，全球旅遊零售）也持續帶來正向貢獻。因此你可以看到，從IMS角度來看，若扣除日本與波蘭這些一次性事件，動能是存在的；而成長的地理多元化也讓我對這種成長的韌性更有信心。

Now the Japan event of this year, I would say that was a little bit atypical because you have asymmetrically only one category that takes a pretty important tax and price increase. If you look at the price increases that we had to pass on the IQOS consumables alone, you're looking for the Japanese consumer that is not used to seeing price increases over a 10% price increase over the course of one year with the cigarettes not moving.

至於今年日本的事件，我會說那有點不典型，因為只有單一品類不對稱地承受了相當顯著的稅負與價格上調。如果你看我們必須轉嫁到僅IQOS耗材上的漲價，對於不習慣看到漲價的日本消費者而言，在一年內看到超過10%的漲幅，而紙菸價格卻沒有變動。

So now that we move into next year and you have a JPY 12 increase across the board for HTUs and for cigarettes, you may argue that, that is a more progressive increase and something by which there is going to be less of a shock wave for the category itself. And then the other thing that I would ask you to consider is that at this point, we have launched also our new proposition that is BONDS and BLENDS in a variety of markets, including, by the way, in some of the prefectures in Japan.

因此當我們進入明年，HTU與紙菸將全面上調日圓12元，你可以認為這是較為循序漸進的調升，對該品類本身造成的衝擊波也會較小。另外一點希望你納入考量的是，我們目前也已在多個市場推出新的產品主張，也就是BONDS與BLENDS；順帶一提，也包括日本的部分都道府縣。

And you remember that one of the elements that we wanted to really crack, especially in a place like Japan where you have more than 50% penetration of the category among nicotine users is for those that are still entrenched and haven't moved yet, what is a proposition that may actually encourage them to move. And we're at this point with BONDS and BLENDS in a number of markets.

你也記得，我們真正想要突破的其中一個要素——尤其是在像日本這樣、在尼古丁使用者中該品類滲透率已超過50%的地方——是對於那些仍然根深蒂固、尚未轉換的人而言，什麼樣的產品主張能夠真正鼓勵他們轉換。而我們目前已在多個市場推出BONDS與BLENDS。

The proposition is actually doing, and we see that the consumer feedback tells us that the proposition does what we wanted it to do. That is it's managing to convince entrenched smokers to actually move because they find the more similar experience to cigarettes in BONDS and BLENDS that they're looking for. And therefore, we are seeing less or fewer HTU users moving to BONDS and BLENDS.

該價值主張實際上正在發揮作用，而且我們看到消費者回饋告訴我們，這個價值主張確實做到了我們希望它做到的事。也就是說，它成功說服了原本根深蒂固的吸菸者願意轉換，因為他們在 BONDS 和 BLENDS 中找到了他們所尋求、與香菸更相似的體驗。因此，我們看到轉向 BONDS 和 BLENDS 的 HTU 使用者變少了。

They actually tell us too strong for me, but more smokers moving there, meaning it's working exactly as we want. We're at the beginning of that journey. I cannot but be just encouraged by what I'm seeing. And then I will say one last thing. My answer has already been long, but we are starting to see also some new markets opening up.

他們也確實告訴我們「對我來說太強了」，但仍有更多吸菸者轉過去，這表示它正如我們所希望的那樣在運作。我們才剛開始這段旅程。我只能說，看到目前的情況讓我感到非常鼓舞。然後我再補充最後一點。我的回答已經很長了，但我們也開始看到一些新市場正在開放。

We saw Taiwan that opened up last year, and you see what a quick run we have had in Taiwan, where the business is growing strongly, and we have become absolutely the category leader in the category, ahead of the traditional leading player in the CC business there. And more recently, you have seen regulatory changes in Argentina, which is a positive step towards the ability next year to be able to enter the market in Argentina as well, which means that there may be more markets that come on board.

我們看到台灣在去年開放，而你也看到我們在台灣的快速進展：業務強勁成長，我們也已經成為該品類的絕對領導者，領先當地傳統 CC 業務的領先玩家。而更近期，你也看到阿根廷的法規變更，這是朝向明年能夠進入阿根廷市場的一個正面步驟，這也意味著可能會有更多市場加入。

It's not a matter of whether they're going to come on board. It's more a matter of when. So our sentiment towards the trajectory for HnB remains extremely strong, Eric.

這不是它們會不會加入的問題。更多是什麼時候加入的問題。所以我們對 HnB 的發展軌跡仍然非常有信心，Eric。

Great. Very thorough and very helpful. One quick follow-up. Realizing pricing has never been the primary lever for IQOS growth. It's really mostly about driving penetration.

很好。非常詳盡，也非常有幫助。我有一個簡短的追問。我知道定價從來不是 IQOS 成長的主要槓桿。主要還是推動滲透率。

It does seem like the price mix or the implied price mix in international smoke-free was a little bit softer this quarter. I think it ran about 3.5% in the first half, closer to, I get like 70 basis points in the third quarter. Just wondering what's happening there? Is it simply the comparisons from last year? Is it some geographic mix?

但看起來本季國際無煙業務的價格組合（或隱含的價格組合）稍微偏弱。我認為上半年大約是 3.5%，第三季更接近——我算起來大概是 70 個基點。想請問那邊發生了什麼？只是因為去年同期比較基期的關係嗎？還是有一些地理區域組合的影響？

Is it product mix with BONDS by IQOS? Just wondering what happened in the quarter and how to think about price mix for international smoke-free going forward?

還是產品組合的影響，例如 BONDS by IQOS？想請問本季到底發生了什麼，以及未來該如何看待國際無煙業務的價格組合？

Excellent question, Eric. So there are two things that I would mention when it comes to the revenue growth of IQOS in the quarter. Two things to keep in mind. The first one is it's obviously hit by the comparison on the shipments versus previous year. And you saw that our shipment volume in total SFP was at 2.7% growth, which is a lower level of growth that you have seen in previous quarters and obviously, being IQOS such a large part of our smoke-free portfolio, the comparison on IQOS shipment volumes is the one that is actually holding that down because you have seen excellent growth in the other two categories.

很好的問題，Eric。關於本季 IQOS 的營收成長，我會提兩點。有兩件事需要記住。第一，顯然受到出貨量與去年相比的比較影響。你也看到我們整體 SFP 的出貨量成長為 2.7%，這個成長水準低於你在前幾季看到的；而 IQOS 佔我們無煙產品組合比重很大，因此 IQOS 出貨量的比較其實就是壓低整體的因素，因為你在另外兩個品類看到非常出色的成長。

There is a second element to consider that is, therefore, category mix within that when you want to take that to revenues. And one third element, there have been certain pricing decisions, timing of certain pricing decisions, especially in IQOS that have been made and which have hit the quarter, and that's all, but nothing else on that, that is of any concern to us.

第二個需要考量的因素是：因此在把它轉換到營收時，會出現品類內的組合影響。第三個因素是，我們做出了一些定價決策、以及某些定價決策的時點安排，特別是在 IQOS 上，這些都影響了本季；除此之外沒有其他任何讓我們擔心的事情。

Great, thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

很好，非常感謝。我把問題交給下一位。

Thank you, Eric.

謝謝你，Eric。

Pallav Mittal, Barclays.

Barclays 的 Pallav Mittal。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So the first one is on ZYN and ULTRA. And clearly, there have been some concerns around the pickup in volumes over the last couple of months. The EBIT this quarter in the US is growing only 1.5% on a very easy comp.

嗨，早安。謝謝讓我提問。第一個問題是關於 ZYN 和 ULTRA。很明顯，過去幾個月銷量回升引發了一些疑慮。在美國，本季 EBIT 在非常容易的比較基期下也只成長 1.5%。

And for Q4, you are saying it would be zero or slightly negative. Given that the investments will continue into next year, is it fair to assume that the US EBIT would decline next year?

而對於第四季，你們表示會是零成長或略為負成長。考量到這些投資會延續到明年，是否可以合理假設美國的 EBIT 明年會下滑？

The US Can you repeat the last --

美國——你可以重複最後那個——

The EBIT in US would decline next year?

美國的 EBIT 明年會下滑嗎？

Pallav, sorry, your line is not very clear, but I think you're asking about US EBIT for next year.

Pallav，抱歉，你的線路不是很清楚，但我想你是在問明年美國的 EBIT。

For next year. Okay. Look, as I said before, I'm not going to provide guidance for next year here. I can provide some considerations for you to make your own conclusions on it. You have seen that we have now nicotine pouch volumes that have grown quarter-on-quarter over the past three quarters, and we guided over the performance in Q4.

明年。好的。你看，正如我之前說過的，我不會在這裡提供明年的指引。我可以提供一些你可以用來自行推論的考量因素。你已經看到我們的尼古丁袋（nicotine pouch）銷量在過去三個季度呈現季對季成長，而我們也對第四季的表現做了指引。

You know that we are bold about the category going forward, and we said that it's going to be strong double-digit growth going forward. And you have seen our share performance. Quite frankly, we also guided, and I explained that in the question before from Bonnie on the cost level that you can expect for next year and taking Q3 as a good proxy for the run rate for next year.

你也知道我們對該品類未來的發展很有信心，我們說過未來將會是強勁的雙位數成長。你也看到我們的市占表現。坦白說，我們也已經做了指引，而且我在先前回覆 Bonnie 的問題時也解釋過，明年你可以預期的成本水準，並且可以把第三季視為明年經常性水準（run rate）的良好代理。

And therefore, you can assume that with volume growth continuing from the category and from our ability to retain or even increase share, the absorption of those costs is going to be better, including the investments that we have made in Colorado for the manufacturing facility. And therefore, you can derive what the possible trajectory for the EBIT is going to be.

因此，你可以假設：隨著品類本身以及我們維持甚至提升市占的能力所帶來的銷量成長持續，這些成本的吸收會更好，其中也包括我們在科羅拉多製造設施所做的投資。因此，你可以推導出 EBIT 可能的走勢。

One thing to keep in mind is the fact that, obviously, the 25% price optimization that we are making in Q4 will have a lagging effect for three quarters on the revenue level but on a growing volume. So that's what I would keep in mind, and then we can provide better guidance when we talk again in February.

有一點要記住：我們在第四季進行的 25% 價格最佳化，對營收層面的影響會有三個季度的遞延效應，但它是建立在銷量成長的基礎上。所以我會把這點放在心上；然後等到我們二月再談時，我們可以提供更好的指引。

Pallav, your line is very unclear. So I'm afraid we'll have to move to the next question. Please do contact us if you have a follow-up to that.

Pallav，你的線路非常不清楚。所以恐怕我們得先進到下一個問題。如果你對此有追問，請再聯絡我們。

Andrei Andon, Jefferies.

Jefferies 的 Andrei Andon。

Hi, Massimo, James, it's Andrei Andon from Jefferies here. Two quick ones from me, please. First of all, in Germany, we've had this law that means excise taxes will increase much more sharply in the next four years. It was passed last week. How do you expect this to affect combustibles and heated tobacco in Germany in terms of volumes and pricing ability in 2027 and beyond?

嗨，Massimo、James，我是 Jefferies 的 Andrei Andon。我有兩個簡短問題。首先，在德國，我們有一項法律，意味著未來四年消費稅（excise taxes）將更大幅度上調。它在上週通過了。你們預期這會如何影響德國的可燃產品與加熱菸草（heated tobacco），就銷量與定價能力而言，在 2027 年及之後會是如何？

And then the second question, we've had this shipment growth for ZYN in the US just over 4% year-on-year in Q3. It does seem like it's fairly ahead of third-party scanner data, which seems to suggest volumes down mid-single digit in Q3. Is this due to a restocking benefit? Or are there any other factors that would help explain this difference?

第二個問題，美國 ZYN 在第三季的出貨成長年增略高於 4%。看起來這明顯高於第三方掃描數據（scanner data），後者似乎顯示第三季銷量下滑中個位數。這是因為補庫存（restocking）的利多嗎？或者還有其他因素可以幫助解釋這個差異？

Thank you very much, Andrei. So I will start from the Germany question. I mean, as you know, we operate across a variety of countries around the world. And this is not the first time that we find ourselves confronted with higher-than-usual taxation passed in one time. I mean if you look at the recent past, similar events of actually higher magnitude that happened past couple of years in Belgium, in the Netherlands, two years ago in Poland, more recently in India, in Mexico.

非常感謝你，Andrei。那我先從德國的問題開始。我的意思是，如你所知，我們在全球多個國家營運。而這也不是我們第一次遇到一次性通過高於以往水準的稅負上調。我的意思是，如果你回顧近期，過去幾年在比利時、荷蘭，兩年前在波蘭，較近期在印度、墨西哥，都發生過類似事件，而且幅度其實更大。

So we are actually quite well versed to deal with events like this one. Now the German government came with a higher-than-usual tax pass-on because now it's ranging between EUR 0.83 and EUR 0.88, I understand, starting on January 1. And I would point you, Andrei, to certain positive elements of this, which are the following.

因此，我們其實相當熟悉如何應對這類事件。目前德國政府提出高於以往水準的稅負轉嫁，據我了解，自1月1日起稅額介於0.83歐元至0.88歐元之間。Andrei，我想請你留意其中一些正面因素，如下。

First and foremost, the differential with HTU has been retained. And therefore, HTU retains a tax advantage versus the underlying cigarette tax. The second element that I would bring you to is if there is a market where we are perfectly positioned to be super competitive even in an environment with higher tax, that's Germany.

首先也是最重要的是，與HTU之間的稅負差異仍然保留。因此，HTU相對於傳統香菸稅仍保有稅務優勢。第二點我想指出的是，如果有一個市場，即使在較高稅負環境下我們仍能保持極強競爭力，那就是德國。

We have the strongest brand in the market, which is Marlboro, and Marlboro's equity in Germany is one of the highest that we have in the entire world, accompanied by a few other brands, second to it, L&M that is accompanying it. Marlboro and the entire portfolio has been well deployed across a variety of formats including very large stick count packs, but also banded with the launch last year of Marlboro Crafted that has been extremely successful, which means that it allows us to compete at all the various price segments and therefore, to compete very powerfully. So fair to tell you, is it welcome that the German government comes with a tax increase of that magnitude? No, it's not because we know what that trajectory does.

我們在該市場擁有最強勢的品牌，也就是Marlboro，而Marlboro在德國的品牌資產是我們全球最高之一，並且還有其他幾個品牌作為支撐，其中L&M緊隨其後。Marlboro以及整個產品組合已在多種規格上完善布局，包括超大支數包裝；同時也搭配去年推出且極為成功的Marlboro Crafted，這意味著我們能在各個價格帶競爭，因此具備非常強的競爭力。所以坦白說，德國政府推出如此幅度的加稅，這是好事嗎？不是，因為我們知道那樣的趨勢會帶來什麼影響。

We have seen that well in the UK. We have seen that well in France, in Belgium, in the Netherlands. Fundamentally, it moves more volume to illicit players. And ultimately, the government collects fewer taxes and sometimes the local industry collects fewer revenues. But if there is one company in Germany that is well versed to compete in that environment, that is us, thanks to the portfolio that we have and the strength of the brands that we have.

我們在英國已經清楚看過，在法國、比利時、荷蘭也同樣如此。從根本上來說，它會把更多銷量推向非法業者。最終政府徵收到的稅收反而更少，有時本地產業的營收也會更少。但如果說在德國有哪一家公司最有能力在那樣的環境中競爭，那就是我們，這要歸功於我們的產品組合以及品牌實力。

And at this point, I would say, with cigarette prices going up, yes, the HTUs are going to go up, but by a lesser extent, given the tax differential. And we're going to continue to be focused on the growth of IQOS in Germany, which, as I said before, is recording double-digit IMS growth this year, and that is, for us, super important.

而在此刻，我會說，隨著香菸價格上升，是的，HTU也會上升，但由於稅負差異，其上升幅度會較小。我們也將持續聚焦於IQOS在德國的成長；如我先前所說，今年其IMS成長呈現雙位數，這對我們而言非常重要。

I'll come to your question on the ZYN growth. Andrei, if I may ask you to clarify your question on the ZYN growth again, please?

我來回答你關於ZYN成長的問題。Andrei，如果可以的話，能否請你再澄清一次你對ZYN成長的問題？

It's just that the reported shipment number, the just over plus 4% in the US on volumes does seem to be ahead of the scanner data that we've seen, which would have suggested around mid-single-digit volume decline in Q3. I was just wondering if that delta is explained by a degree of restocking or if there are other factors in play that would explain this difference?

只是你們公布的出貨數據顯示，美國銷量略高於+4%，看起來確實高於我們看到的掃描數據；掃描數據顯示第三季銷量大約是中個位數下滑。我只是想了解，這個差異是否可由一定程度的補庫存來解釋，或是否還有其他因素能說明這個差別？

Well, what I can tell you is this is the shipment data that we have. So we're growing 4.2% in the quarter. And actually, what you can consider is that if you consider the comparison to the fact that in September last year, we had the nicotine pouch promotion that hit the month of September, we are actually removing that unfavorable comparison, growing 13% in the quarter, net of that comparison.

嗯，我能告訴你的是，這就是我們掌握的出貨數據。所以我們在本季成長4.2%。而且你可以這樣看：如果把去年9月尼古丁袋促銷活動影響9月的因素納入比較，我們其實是在排除那個不利比較基期後，本季成長13%。

So that is maybe the element that you may want to keep in mind in order to reconcile your figures. The second thing that I would point out to you is that, obviously, in the quarter, there is the rollout and pipelining and increase of distribution of our new variants and the flavors on the dry portfolio and the launch of the ULTRA variants.

因此，這可能是你在對齊你手上數據時需要留意的一個因素。第二點我想提醒你的是，當然，本季我們的新口味與乾式產品組合的新變體正在擴大鋪貨、建立管線並提升配銷，同時也推出ULTRA變體。

So over the course of the quarter, there was obviously increase of distribution. We believe that for those variants, we are now fully covered in terms of distribution. We're now building the one for 1.5 and 8, but those obviously have contributed to the growth of shipments for us in the quarter. Does that address your question, Andrei?

因此在整個季度期間，配銷覆蓋顯然有所提升。我們相信就這些變體而言，目前在配銷覆蓋上已經完全到位。我們現在正在為1.5與8建立相應的覆蓋，但這些顯然也對本季我們的出貨成長有所貢獻。Andrei，這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

Yeah. Thank you very much.

有的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. That's all the time we have for Q&A today. I would now like to turn it back over to management for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答時間就到這裡。我現在想把時間交回管理層作結語。

Thank you very much. Sorry if we didn't manage to address everybody's question. Please do follow up with the Investor Relations team. That concludes our call today. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.

非常感謝。很抱歉我們未能回答到每一位的問題。請與投資人關係團隊後續聯繫。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與，祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝各位參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以斷線。各位，祝有美好的一天。