菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session.

美好的一天，歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際公司管理層的演講和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

（操作員指示）我現在將電話轉給投資者關係和財經傳播副總裁 Nick Rolli 先生。請繼續，先生。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2020 third quarter results. You may access the release on www.pmi.com or the PMI Investor Relations app.

歡迎並感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關 2020 年第三季業績的詳細資訊。您可以透過 www.pmi.com 或 PMI 投資者關係應用程式存取該新聞稿。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for reduced-risk products or RRPs as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures and additional heated tobacco unit market data are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are also posted on the website. Unless otherwise stated, all references to IQOS are to our IQOS heat-not-burn products. Comparisons presented on a like-for-like basis reflect pro forma 2019 results, which have been adjusted for the deconsolidation of our Canadian subsidiary, Rothmans, Benson & Hedges Inc., effective March 22, 2019.

今天網路廣播投影片的末尾提供了術語表，包括降低風險產品或 RRP 的定義以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比較的美國 GAAP 衡量標準的調節以及其他加熱菸草單位市場數據。 。除非另有說明，否則所有提及 IQOS 的內容均指我們的 IQOS 加熱不燃燒產品。同類比較反映了 2019 年預計結果，該結果已根據加拿大子公司 Rothmans, Benson & Hedges Inc. 的分拆進行調整，該結果於 2019 年 3 月 22 日生效。

Please also note that growth rates presented on an organic basis for consolidated financial results reflect currency-neutral underlying results and like-for-like comparisons where applicable. Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. Please also note the additional forward-looking and cautionary statements related to COVID-19.

另請注意，合併財務表現的有機成長率反映了貨幣中性的基本結果和適用的同類比較。今天的言論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。我請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性和警示性聲明，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性聲明有重大差異的各種因素。另請注意與 COVID-19 相關的其他前瞻性和警示性聲明。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel. Babeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Emmanuel?

現在我很高興向大家介紹伊曼紐。 巴博，我們的財務長。以馬內利？

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I hope everyone listening to the call and those close to you are safe and well.

謝謝你，尼克，歡迎，女士們先生們。我希望每個聽到這個電話的人以及你身邊的人都平安健康。

Our business delivered an even better-than-expected performance in the third quarter despite the ongoing circumstances of the pandemic. Most importantly, the excellent momentum of IQOS continues. HTU volumes have grown 28% year-to-date with a positive mix effect on our net revenues, where RRPs again made up almost 1/4 of our business in Q3. IQOS user acquisition outpaced the prior year quarter to reach an estimated total of 16.4 million users at the end of September.

儘管疫情持續，我們第三季的業務表現甚至比預期好。最重要的是，IQOS的優良動能仍在延續。今年迄今為止，HTU 銷量成長了 28%，對我們的淨收入產生了積極的綜合影響，建議零售價再次占我們第三季業務的近 1/4。截至 9 月底，IQOS 用戶獲取量預計達到 1,640 萬，超過去年同期。

While still below pre-pandemic levels in most places, our combustible business recorded an improved sequential performance. Underlying industry volumes were better across both developed and emerging markets, reflecting increased consumption occasions. This was notably the case in market with a significant proportion of daily wage workers like Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines.

儘管大多數地方仍低於大流行前的水平，但我們的可燃業務的連續業績有所改善。已開發市場和新興市場的基礎產業銷售量均有所改善，反映消費場合的增加。在印尼、墨西哥和菲律賓等日薪勞工佔很大比例的市場上，情況尤其如此。

Despite these better industry volumes, Indonesia remains challenging together with Duty Free. We must also retain a degree of caution around a second wave of the pandemic and its overall economic consequences across all of our markets.

儘管行業銷量有所改善，印尼與免稅店仍面臨挑戰。我們也必須對第二波疫情及其對所有市場的總體經濟後果保持一定程度的謹慎。

Our operating margins were again significantly ahead in the quarter and on a year-to-date basis despite the challenges in our Duty Free business. These reflect the increasing weight and profitability of RRPs and cost efficiencies. Our cash generation was also strong with $3.6 billion of operating cash flow in the quarter, putting us on track to reach our target of at least $9 billion this year.

儘管我們的免稅業務面臨挑戰，但本季和年初至今，我們的營業利潤率再次大幅領先。這些反映了建議零售價和成本效率的權重和獲利能力的增加。我們的現金產生能力也很強勁，本季營運現金流為 36 億美元，這使我們有望實現今年至少 90 億美元的目標。

Turning to the headline numbers. Our Q3 net revenue declined by 1.5% on an organic basis, making -- marking a significant improvement from the decline of almost 10% in Q2. While this was somewhat aided by certain timing factors, including the revaluation of distributor inventory in Japan, ahead of the October price increase, it nonetheless reflect the continued strength of IQOS, combined with the sequential improvement in our combustible business. Indeed, the positive effect of the shift in our sales mix towards RRPs can be seen in the 6.5% organic increase in net revenue per unit.

轉向標題數字。我們第三季的淨收入有機下降了 1.5%，與第二季近 10% 的下降相比有了顯著改善。雖然這在一定程度上受到了某些時間因素的幫助，包括在 10 月提價之前日本經銷商庫存的重估，但它仍然反映了 IQOS 的持續強勢，以及我們可燃業務的連續改善。事實上，我們的銷售組合轉向建議零售價的正面影響可以從每單位淨收入有機成長 6.5% 看出。

Combustible tobacco pricing was 2.1% up, reflecting solid pricing in a number of markets, partially offset by timing differences with the prior year, a strong prior year comparison in Turkey and headwinds in Indonesia. These timing differences include the effect of delayed pricing in some instances, such as the Philippines, where we took a price increase this month rather than August in 2019.

可燃煙草定價上漲 2.1%，反映出許多市場的定價穩定，但部分被與上年的時間差異、土耳其上年的強勁對比以及印尼的不利因素所抵消。這些時間差異包括某些情況下延遲定價的影響，例如菲律賓，我們在本月而不是在 2019 年 8 月提高了價格。

Given this net revenue decline, we were pleased to deliver such a strong adjusted operating income margin expansion of over 300 basis points on an organic basis. I will cover this in more detail shortly, noting that we saw a further benefit versus our prior expectation from additional cost efficiencies and some delayed spending in the last month of the quarter.

鑑於淨收入下降，我們很高興能夠實現如此強勁的調整後營業利潤率有機成長超過 300 個基點。我很快就會更詳細地討論這一點，並指出，與我們之前的預期相比，我們從額外的成本效率和本季度最後一個月的一些延遲支出中看到了進一步的好處。

Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.42 increased by 5.6% excluding currency, better than our prior expectation of a flat organic development. The primary driver was the above cost benefit as well as better industry volumes in Indonesia and the EU region, where increased mobility coincided with the reopening of hospitality settings and warm weather.

調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.42 美元，剔除貨幣因素後成長 5.6%，優於我們先前對有機發展持平的預期。主要驅動力是上述成本效益以及印尼和歐盟地區更好的行業規模，這些地區的流動性增加與飯店設施的重新開放和溫暖的天氣一致。

I also want to reflect on our strong performance over the first 9 months of the year. This was clearly a challenging period with disruption to many aspect of our operations, including our supply chain and route to market. Our net revenue declined by only 0.9% on an organic basis, an exceptionally resilient performance given these unprecedented headwinds. We estimate that Duty Free and Indonesia alone were a mid-single-digit drag on our top line growth.

我還想回顧一下我們今年前 9 個月的強勁表現。這顯然是一個充滿挑戰的時期，我們營運的許多方面都受到了乾擾，包括我們的供應鏈和市場路線。我們的淨收入有機地僅下降了 0.9%，考慮到這些前所未有的逆風，我們的表現異常有彈性。我們估計，光是免稅店和印尼就對我們的營收成長產生了中個位數的拖累。

Despite these factors, we saw very good organic progression in our net revenue per unit from the increasing weight of RRPs and solid pricing in combustible. Our adjusted operating income margin increased by 260 basis points to deliver 7.4% adjusted diluted EPS growth, all on an organic basis.

儘管存在這些因素，但由於建議零售價權重的增加和可燃物的穩定定價，我們的單位淨收入取得了非常好的有機進展。我們調整後的營業利潤率成長了 260 個基點，調整後稀釋後每股盈餘成長 7.4%，所有這些都是有機的。

Let me now go into the driver of our Q3 margin expansion in more detail, starting with gross margin, which expanded by 180 basis points on an organic basis. This is driven by multiple levers. First, our ongoing transformation is delivering an increasing mix of RRPs in our business. Second is pricing on combustible. Third is our focus on overall manufacturing productivity, where our focus on efficiency, quality and footprint more than offset the impact of lower combustible volumes.

現在讓我更詳細地討論第三季利潤率擴張的驅動因素，首先是毛利率，毛利率有機成長了 180 個基點。這是由多個槓桿驅動的。首先，我們正在進行的轉型正在為我們的業務提供越來越多的建議零售價組合。二是可燃物定價。第三是我們對整體製造生產力的關注，我們對效率、品質和占地面積的關注足以抵消可燃量降低的影響。

The positive gross margin development was augmented by our focus on SG&A efficiency with our total marketing, administration and research costs, 140 basis point lower as a percentage of net revenues on an organic basis. This reflect the ongoing digitalization and simplification of our business processes, including our RRP commercial engine and more efficient ways of working. There was also a benefit from the timing of certain costs, as I already mentioned.

我們對 SG&A 效率的關注增強了毛利率的正面成長，我們的總行銷、管理和研究成本佔有機淨收入的百分比降低了 140 個基點。這反映了我們業務流程的持續數位化和簡化，包括我們的 RRP 商業引擎和更有效率的工作方式。正如我已經提到的，某些成本的時機也有好處。

Despite the challenges of 2020, we are today raising our expected full year adjusted diluted EPS range to between $5.05 and $5.10, reflecting around 5% to 6% organic growth. This exclude an assumed unfavorable currency impact at prevailing exchange rate of $0.32.

儘管 2020 年面臨挑戰，我們今天仍將全年預期調整後稀釋每股收益範圍提高至 5.05 美元至 5.10 美元，反映出約 5% 至 6% 的有機成長。這不包括以現行匯率 0.32 美元假設的不利貨幣影響。

As stated in our earnings release, we have also updated certain guidance assumption. We now expect a total industry decline of 7% to 8% and a like-for-like decline in total PMI shipment volume of 8% to 9%, both of which factor in the better Q3 development in the EU and a smaller expected market decline in Indonesia.

正如我們在財報中所述，我們也更新了某些指導假設。我們現在預計整個產業將下降 7% 至 8%，PMI 出貨量年減 8% 至 9%，這都是因為歐盟第三季發展較好以及預期市場較小印尼的下降。

We assume an organic expansion in our adjusted OI margin of around 200 basis points, also reflecting the above factors and ongoing cost efficiencies. We expect capital expenditure of approximately $0.6 billion and an effective tax rate, excluding discrete item, of 22% to 23%. We also assume no recurrence of national lockdowns in our key international market in the fourth quarter and remain vigilant with regard to the pandemic as economic uncertainty remains and localized social restriction are being tightened in some geographies.

我們假設調整後的 OI 利潤率有機擴張約 200 個基點，這也反映了上述因素和持續的成本效率。我們預計資本支出約為 6 億美元，有效稅率（不包括離散項目）為 22% 至 23%。我們也假設第四季度我們的主要國際市場不會再次出現國家封鎖，並對這場流行病保持警惕，因為經濟不確定性仍然存在，並且一些地區正在收緊局部社會限制。

Focusing now on the fourth quarter. We assume underlying consumption trends should be broadly stable versus a robust Q3. In many markets, including the EU region and Russia, increased consumer mobility, the opening of hospitality settings and summer conditions provided a helpful backdrop to our performance. However, there remains continued pandemic-related uncertainty as we now see localized restriction tightening in certain countries, with potential impact on both mobility and economic vitality.

現在重點關注第四季。我們認為，與強勁的第三季相比，潛在的消費趨勢應該大致穩定。在包括歐盟地區和俄羅斯在內的許多市場，消費者流動性的增加、飯店設施的開放和夏季條件為我們的業績提供了有利的背景。然而，與大流行相關的不確定性仍然存在，因為我們現在看到某些國家收緊了局部限制，這對流動性和經濟活力都有潛在影響。

The delay of certain SG&A costs from Q3 will also have an impact on our fourth quarter results. In addition, it's worth noting that while the price increase in Japan took effect on the 1st of October, the majority of the impact this year was realized in the third quarter through the revaluation of distributor inventories.

第三季某些銷售管理費用的延遲也將對我們第四季的業績產生影響。此外，值得注意的是，雖然日本的漲價於10月1日生效，但今年的大部分影響是透過經銷商庫存重估在第三季度實現的。

I should remind you that Q4 2019 present a strong base of comparison. This is notably due to pricing in Indonesia, ahead of the January 2020 excise tax increase, and an exceptional share gain in Saudi Arabia due to market disruption ahead of new plant packaging requirement. As such, while we expect around 5% to 6% organic EPS growth for the year, we expect the organic progression to be flat to modestly negative in the fourth quarter, excluding $0.04 of estimated unfavorable currency.

我應該提醒您，2019 年第四季提供了堅實的比較基礎。這主要是由於 2020 年 1 月消費稅上調之前印尼的定價，以及由於新工廠包裝要求之前的市場混亂而導致沙烏地阿拉伯市場份額的異常增長。因此，雖然我們預計今年有機每股收益將成長約 5% 至 6%，但我們預計第四季度的有機成長將持平至小幅負成長，不包括估計的 0.04 美元不利貨幣。

I will now cover our third quarter performance in more detail. As with the net revenues, our combustible shipment volume sequentially improved, albeit the year-over-year decline remains greater than historic average. This was supported by better industry trends in all regions.

我現在將更詳細地介紹我們第三季的業績。與淨收入一樣，我們的可燃物出貨量較上季有所改善，儘管年減幅度仍高於歷史平均水準。所有地區更好的行業趨勢都支持了這一點。

Conversely, our HTU shipment volume continued to grow strongly to reach a record 19 billion units driven by the EU region, Japan and Russia. I also want to touch on the year-on-year inventory movement in the quarter, which negatively impacted our shipment on both cigarettes and HTUs vis-à-vis consumer offtake.

相反，在歐盟地區、日本和俄羅斯的推動下，我們的 HTU 出貨量持續強勁成長，達到創紀錄的 190 億台。我還想談談本季的同比庫存變動，這對我們的捲菸和 HTU 運輸相對於消費者購買產生了負面影響。

The reversal of trade buildup in H1 in markets like Germany and Russia was one contributing factor. Specifically for Japan, there were reduction in distributor inventory in Q3, following increases in both Q1 and Q2 of this year, in anticipation of retail and consumer loading before the October tax-driven price increase. As such, our shipments in the quarter were less than our in-market sales volume.

德國和俄羅斯等市場上半年貿易成長的逆轉是影響因素之一。特別是在日本，繼今年第一季和第二季庫存增加之後，第三季經銷商庫存有所減少，因為預計 10 月稅收驅動的價格上漲之前零售和消費者的裝載量將會增加。因此，我們本季的出貨量低於市場銷量。

Importantly, inventory for cigarettes and HTUs in Japan are now aligned to the expected market size following the price increase. The main positive impact of the price increase on our Q3 results was the revaluation of distributor inventory.

重要的是，日本捲菸和 HTU 的庫存現已與價格上漲後的預期市場規模保持一致。價格上漲對我們第三季業績的主要正面影響是經銷商庫存的重估。

This strong performance from IQOS means that heated tobacco unit made up over 10% of our total shipment volume in the first 9 months of the year as compared to approximately 8% in 2019 and 5% in 2018. We continue to expect this proportion to grow over time as the positive momentum on RRPs continues and remain well on track to achieve our target of 90 billion to 100 billion units in 2021.

IQOS 的強勁表​​現意味著加熱菸草部門在今年前 9 個月占我們總出貨量的 10% 以上，而 2019 年約為 8%，2018 年約為 5%。隨著時間的推移，建議零售價的正面動能持續下去，並有望在2021 年實現900 億至1,000 億部的目標。

Our mission is to grow the RRP category globally and transform the mix of our business. With $4.9 billion in sales year-to-date, RRPs are now approaching 1/4 of our total net revenues. Indeed, while this percentage was just over 23% in the quarter, if we were to adjust for inventory movements, Q3 would have almost reached 25%. IQOS devices accounted for approximately 8% of RRP net revenue year-to-date, mainly due to a naturally lower ratio of new user to existing users, longer replacement cycle and geographic mix, particularly in the third quarter. In some geographies, we still sell a substantial amount of the lower-priced original IQOS 2.4 Plus device. And we have now introduced a lil SOLID in Eastern Europe.

我們的使命是在全球範圍內發展零售價類別並改變我們的業務組合。今年迄今的銷售額為 49 億美元，建議零售價現已接近我們總淨收入的 1/4。事實上，雖然該百分比在本季度略高於 23%，但如果我們根據庫存變動進行調整，第三季幾乎將達到 25%。 IQOS 設備佔今年迄今建議零售價淨收入的約 8%，這主要是由於新用戶與現有用戶的比例自然較低、更換週期較長和地理組合，特別是在第三季。在某些地區，我們仍然銷售大量價格較低的原廠 IQOS 2.4 Plus 設備。我們現在在東歐推出了 lil SOLID。

The East Asia and Australia region provide an illustration of RRPs operating at scale and is on track to deliver over half its revenue from RRP this year. While the investment phase of building commercial infrastructure can weigh on margin as scale is built, the strong margin expansion over recent years show our powerful scale and experience in RRP can be as investments start to pay back and the commercial approach is optimized.

東亞和澳洲地區是建議零售價大規模營運的典範，預計今年將有超過一半的收入來自建議零售價。雖然隨著規模的擴大，建設商業基礎設施的投資階段可能會影響利潤率，但近年來利潤率的強勁擴張表明，隨著投資開始回報和商業方法的優化，我們在建議零售價方面的強大規模和經驗可能會受到影響。

Focusing now on our total international market share. The development were very positive for the bulk of our business. Before the impact of Duty Free cigarettes and Indonesia, our share increased by 0.4 points. This was driven by higher share for heated tobacco unit, which increased by 0.8 points to reach 3.1%, only partly offset by lower share for cigarette.

現在關注我們的國際市場總份額。這一發展對我們的大部分業務來說都是非常積極的。在受到免稅香菸和印尼的影響之前，我們的份額增加了0.4個百分點。這是由加熱菸草單位的份額增加所推動的，該單位增加了 0.8 個百分點，達到 3.1%，但僅被捲菸份額的下降部分抵消。

In markets where IQOS has a meaningful presence, our share increased with few exception. It follow that our combined market share increased in the EU region, Japan and Russia. However, our total international market share was negatively impacted by Duty Free where our share is higher than the PMI average, resulting in an impartial recapture of volume in other markets; and by Indonesia, which I will come back to separately.

在 IQOS 具有重要影響力的市場中，我們的份額幾乎沒有例外地增加。因此，我們在歐盟地區、日本和俄羅斯的綜合市場份額增加。然而，我們的國際市場總份額受到免稅店的負面影響，我們的份額高於 PMI 平均水平，導致其他市場的銷售重新恢復；還有印度尼西亞，我將單獨討論這個問題。

It is also true that in many markets, Marlboro over-indexes to social consumption occasion, which are naturally lower during COVID-related restriction. While the easing of measures is uneven across market, we saw aggregate Marlboro share start to recover sequentially in the quarter.

確實，在許多市場，萬寶路對社交消費場合的指數過高，而在新冠疫情相關的限制期間，該指數自然會較低。儘管整個市場的放鬆措施並不均衡，但我們看到萬寶路的總份額在本季開始連續回升。

I turn now to Indonesia. While the challenges related to the excise tax structure remain, underlying consumer trends improved in the quarter. Industry volumes declined by 6% excluding trade inventory movements, a notable improvement from the 22% decline in Q2. This primarily reflects a recovery in daily consumption from depressed level as confinement eased.

我現在談談印尼。儘管與消費稅結構相關的挑戰仍然存在，但本季潛在的消費者趨勢有所改善。不計貿易庫存變動，產業銷售量下降 6%，較第二季 22% 的降幅顯著改善。這主要反映了隨著限制的放鬆，日常消費從低迷水平開始復甦。

Given the continued rise in COVID cases and the possibility of more localized restriction, such as those temporarily introduced in Jakarta last month, we do not assume significant further improvement in the fourth quarter. However, reflecting the better third quarter industry volume and exit rate, we now expect the total industry decline on a shipment basis to be around 11% for the full year versus 15% previously.

鑑於新冠病例持續增加以及可能實施更多局部限制（例如上個月在雅加達臨時實施的限制），我們認為第四季度不會進一步顯著改善。然而，由於第三季行業銷量和退出率有所改善，我們現在預計全年行業總出貨量下降幅度約為 11%，而此前為 15%。

While the smaller industry decline has a commensurate effect on our volumes, our market share remains under pressure despite improved performance from the higher-margin A Mild, Dji Sam Soe Magnum and SKT brands. This is due to the same dynamic mentioned last quarter.

雖然較小的行業下滑對我們的銷量產生了相應的影響，但儘管利潤率較高的 A Mild、Dji Sam Soe Magnum 和 SKT 品牌的業績有所改善，但我們的市場份額仍然面臨壓力。這是由於上季提到的同樣的動態。

Most notably, the growth of tax advantage below Tier 1 brands continues as tax-driven pricing and the pandemic have increased down-trading. To illustrate this issue, the tax per stick on our Tier 1 A Mild brand is more than 60% higher than on a comparable Tier 2 kretek brand, with a similar resulting difference in the retail selling price. With the segment now at 26% of the market, this represents a serious and growing threat to state excise revenue and a diminished return on this year's tax increase.

最值得注意的是，隨著稅收驅動的定價和疫情增加了向下交易，一級品牌以下的稅收優勢繼續增長。為了說明這個問題，我們的 Tier 1 A Mild 品牌每支丁菸的稅費比同類 Tier 2 丁菸品牌高出 60% 以上，零售價也有類似的差異。該細分市場目前佔據 26% 的市場份額，這對國家消費稅收入構成嚴重且日益嚴重的威脅，今年增稅的回報也將減少。

The correction of volume-based tax tiers remains urgent. We are hopeful that the government will take steps over time to ensure more predictability in tax revenue and a level playing field by reforming the multi-tier excise structure. The process of minimum selling price implementation also continues to progress slowly, hampered by the pandemic. Full enforcement may not be complete until the end of the year at the earliest.

基於數量的稅收等級的調整仍然刻不容緩。我們希望政府能夠逐步採取措施，透過改革多層消費結構來確保稅收的可預測性和公平的競爭環境。受疫情影響，最低銷售價格的實施進程也持續進展緩慢。全面執行最快可能要到今年底才能完成。

I move now to our RRP performance. We estimate that there were 16.4 million total IQOS user as of September 30. This represent the addition of around 1.1 million adult users since the end of the second quarter and over 4 million since the same time last year, with more users added in both Q3 and year-to-date than the corresponding period in 2019. This is an exceptional achievement given the circumstances, where our accelerated pivot to digital and remote engagement is paying dividends.

我現在談談我們的建議零售價表現。我們估計，截至9 月30 日，IQOS 用戶總數為1,640 萬。用戶年初至今均高於 2019 年同期。

We further estimate that 72% of this total or 11.7 million adult smokers have stopped smoking and switched to IQOS, with the balance in various stages of conversion. This again reflects widespread user growth momentum across all key IQOS geographies, including Japan, the EU region and Russia. As our user base expands in markets like Japan and Russia, we are increasingly enriching our offer and segmenting the market with new product and more price points. We plan to bring more exciting innovation from IQOS in the coming quarters.

我們進一步估計，其中 72%（即 1,170 萬成年吸菸者）已戒菸並改用 IQOS，其餘的則處於不同的轉換階段。這再次反映出 IQOS 所有主要地區（包括日本、歐盟地區和俄羅斯）廣泛的用戶成長動能。隨著我們的用戶群在日本和俄羅斯等市場的擴大，我們不斷豐富我們的產品，並透過新產品和更多價位來細分市場。我們計劃在未來幾季推出 IQOS 帶來更多令人興奮的創新。

We are also optimistic that the FDA is granting of modified-risk tobacco product. Reduced exposure orders for a version of IQOS will contribute over time to better understanding of the heated tobacco category and the benefit of switching to IQOS compared to continued smoking.

我們也對 FDA 批准降低風險的菸草產品感到樂觀。隨著時間的推移，減少 IQOS 版本的暴露訂單將有助於更好地了解加熱菸草類別以及改用 IQOS 與繼續吸菸相比的好處。

The success of IQOS in global key city, where our commercial strategy typically has a strong initial focus, serve as a useful indicator for national share growth potential. In many such cities across a wide range of market, our share is now well into double digit and still growing. This provides an excellent base from which to further grow our RRP business as we innovate and broaden the IQOS offer.

IQOS 在全球主要城市的成功（我們的商業策略通常在這些城市具有強烈的初始重點）可以作為國家份額成長潛力的有用指標。在許多此類城市的廣泛市場中，我們的份額現已達到兩位數，並且仍在增長。這為我們創新和擴大 IQOS 產品範圍提供了進一步發展 RRP 業務的良好基礎。

In the EU region, we added a further 0.4 million IQOS user in the third quarter to reach 4.7 million, a continuation of a recent strong performance, while most adult menthol smokers have switched to non-menthol cigarettes since the ban in May. We have seen some incremental switching to RRP over the May-September period and continue to see further opportunity to convert these consumers.

在歐盟地區，第三季我們又增加了 40 萬 IQOS 用戶，達到 470 萬，延續了近期的強勁表現，而自 5 月禁令以來，大多數成年薄荷醇吸菸者已轉向非薄荷醇捲菸。我們看到在 5 月至 9 月期間逐漸轉向建議零售價，並且繼續看到更多轉化這些消費者的機會。

Third quarter share for HEETS reached 3.9% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume. This was in line with Q2 2020 but sequentially increased by 0.1 point, when adjusted for estimated retailer inventory movements and consumer pantry loading effect. Sequential IMS growth also on an adjusted basis was plus 16%. This reflects strong absolute growth in Italy and Poland. It also include further progress in Spain and in the U.K., where both national and London off-take share continued to grow, with the latter exceeding 3% in September. I also refer you to the appendix where we show shares for key EU markets.

第三季 HEETS 的份額達到捲菸和 HTU 行業總量的 3.9%。這與 2020 年第二季一致，但根據估計的零售商庫存變動和消費者食品儲藏室裝載效應進行調整後，季增了 0.1 個百分點。調整後的 IMS 環比成長也為 16%。這反映了義大利和波蘭的強勁絕對成長。它還包括西班牙和英國的進一步進展，其中國內和倫敦承購份額持續增長，後者 9 月超過 3%。我還請您參閱附錄，其中我們顯示了主要歐盟市場的份額。

IQOS continued its strong performance in Russia, with our HTU share up by 1.8 point to reach 5.8%. On a sequential basis versus the second quarter of 2020, share decreased by 0.2 points, reflecting a cigarette market, which grew 6% on the same basis, aided by seasonality of consumption and lower illicit prevalence.

IQOS 在俄羅斯持續保持強勁表現，我們的 HTU 份額上升 1.8 個百分點，達到 5.8%。與 2020 年第二季度相比，份額下降了 0.2 個百分點，這反映出捲菸市場在消費季節性和非法流行率下降的推動下同比增長了 6%。

Sequential HTU in-market sales adjusted for trade inventory movement increased by more than 9%. With the introduction of HEETS creation in Q1 2020 and fit consumable for lil SOLID this quarter, we now have a price tier portfolio to cater to a broader range of adult smokers across the social economic spectrum.

根據貿易庫存變動調整後的 HTU 市場內銷售額連續成長了 9% 以上。隨著 2020 年第一季推出 HEETS 產品和本季 lil SOLID 的適合消耗品，我們現在擁有一個價位產品組合，可以滿足整個社會經濟領域更廣泛的成年吸菸者的需求。

In Japan, our total reported share for heated tobacco unit reached 20.5% in the third quarter, supported by line extension for both Marlboro HeatSticks and HEETS, such as the recent launch of Marlboro Black Menthol. IQOS user grew to an estimated total of 6 million, of which an estimated 4.4 million have stopped smoking and switched to IQOS.

在日本，受萬寶路加熱棒和 HEETS 產品線擴展（例如最近推出的萬寶路黑薄荷醇）的支持，第三季度我們加熱菸草部門的總份額達到 20.5%。 IQOS 用戶總數估計已增至 600 萬，其中估計有 440 萬已戒菸並改用 IQOS。

On a total tobacco basis, including cigarillos and adjusted for trade inventory movement, the share for our HTU brands increased by 2.6 points versus the prior year quarter and by 0.2 points sequentially to 18.9%.

以包括小雪茄在內的菸草總量為基礎，並根據貿易庫存變動進行調整，我們的HTU 品牌的份額與去年同期相比增加了2.6 個百分點，比上一季增加了0.2 個百分點，達到18.9 %。

Q3 2020 adjusted in-market sales volume for our HTU brands grew 7.3% sequentially. The overall heated tobacco category continues to grow with a large majority of this growth driven by IQOS and now makes up almost 26% of the total tobacco market.

2020 年第三季度，我們的 HTU 品牌調整後市場銷售量較上季成長 7.3%。整個加熱菸草類別持續成長，其中大部分成長是由 IQOS 推動的，目前幾乎佔整個菸草市場的 26%。

In addition to a strong growth in existing market, the geographic expansion of IQOS continues. We leverage our digital capabilities to launch in 4 new emerging market, Costa Rica, Georgia, Jordan and the Philippines. This takes the total number of markets where IQOS is available for sale to 61, of which over half are outside the OECD.

除了現有市場的強勁成長外，IQOS 的地理擴張仍在繼續。我們利用我們的數位能力在哥斯達黎加、喬治亞、約旦和菲律賓這四個新興市場推出產品。這使得 IQOS 銷售的市場總數達到 61 個，其中一半以上位於 OECD 國家以外。

The launch in the Philippines was initiated digitally before adding retail touch points and is focused on Metro Manila, where consumer purchasing power is higher. While the geographic group is limited, we are encouraged by progress so far.

在菲律賓的推出是在增加零售接觸點之前以數位方式啟動的，重點是消費者購買力較高的馬尼拉大都會。儘管地理群體有限，但迄今為止所取得的進展令我們感到鼓舞。

We have also now started the commercialization of IQOS VEEV, our new e-vapor product, which was launched in New Zealand during the quarter. Initial adult consumer feedback is positive, and we plan to roll out to further market in Q4 and 2021. The commercial infrastructure of IQOS will allow us to deploy efficiently and at scale.

我們現在也開始了 IQOS VEEV 的商業化，這是我們的新電子煙產品，該產品於本季在新西蘭推出。成人消費者的初步回饋是正面的，我們計劃在第四季度和 2021 年向更多市場推出。

We place great importance on guarding against youth access for all our product. In this category, in particular, we will be testing age verification technology in select markets.

我們非常重視防止青少年接觸我們的所有產品。特別是在這一類別中，我們將在選定的市場測試年齡驗證技術。

As part of our mission to build and accelerate the global RRP category, we aim to offer a choice of experiences, formats and price points to adult smoker and consumer of other nicotine product. Our collaboration with KT&G is consistent with this goal, as demonstrated by the first launches of lil product through our IQOS infrastructure. We introduced the lil SOLID heat-not-burn device and Fit HTUs in both Russia and Ukraine during the quarter.

作為我們建立和加速全球 RRP 類別使命的一部分，我們的目標是為成年吸菸者和其他尼古丁產品的消費者提供多種體驗、形式和價格點選擇。我們與 KT&G 的合作與此目標是一致的，透過我們的 IQOS 基礎設施首次推出 lil 產品就證明了這一點。本季度，我們在俄羅斯和烏克蘭推出了 lil SOLID 加熱不燃燒裝置和 Fit HTU。

As we reach shares approaching 15% to 20% with IQOS in key cities such as Moscow and Kiev and we expand to area with lower purchasing power, a simple affordable proposition can play an important complementary role in reaching more adult consumers and maintaining a strong rate of user acquisition. Early result are encouraging with positive feedback from adult user. This means that in both these markets, we now have HTU brands at 3 price points within the heat-not-burn category, super premium HEETS creation dimension, premium HEETS and mid-price Fit, all of which present attractive margin.

隨著我們在莫斯科和基輔等主要城市的IQOS 份額接近15% 至20%，並且我們擴展到購買力較低的地區，簡單實惠的主張可以在吸引更多成年消費者和保持強勁的價格方面發揮重要的補充作用用戶取得。早期結果令人鼓舞，並得到了成年用戶的正面回饋。這意味著在這兩個市場中，我們現在擁有加熱不燃燒類別、超優質 HEETS 創造維度、優質 HEETS 和中等價格 Fit 三個價位的 HTU 品牌，所有這些都具有誘人的利潤。

We will also shortly be launching the lil HYBRID device, mix consumable and nicotine-free liquid cartridge in 2 Japanese prefectures, offering adult consumer a differentiated premium experience, which combine the satisfaction and rich flavor of heated tobacco with added sensorial element. There is a consumer segment in Japan looking for such an experience, and we believe this will be the best hybrid product available in the market.

我們很快還將在日本的兩個縣推出lil HYBRID 設備，混合消耗品和不含尼古丁的液體煙彈，為成年消費者提供差異化的優質體驗，將加熱煙草的滿足感和豐富風味與添加的感官元素結合。日本有一個消費者群體正在尋求這種體驗，我們相信這將是市場上最好的混合產品。

I want now to emphasize the deep alignment of our business with sustainability and ESG objective, which sit at the core of our mission and strategy. Our most important ESG issue is the health impact of our product. By innovating with significantly better alternatives such as IQOS, we have a historic opportunity to substantially reduce this impact by switching adult smoker who would otherwise continue to smoke to reduced-risk product.

我現在想強調我們的業務與永續發展和 ESG 目標的深度結合，這是我們使命和策略的核心。我們最重要的 ESG 議題是我們產品對健康的影響。透過對 IQOS 等明顯更好的替代品進行創新，我們有一個歷史性的機會，可以透過將原本會繼續吸煙的成年吸煙者轉而使用風險較低的產品來大幅減少這種影響。

Through deploying RRPs at scale, we can improve public health and contribute to the sustainable development goals, especially goal 3, good health and well-being. We also have best-in-class practices across a range of central ESG issues, where the other 3 of our 4 system pillars are focused. We believe this provides a unique combination, whereby sustainability is a true driver of innovation and growth. By embedding sustainability into the core of our business, we can create value for our shareholders and society at large.

透過大規模部署RRP，我們可以改善公共衛生並為永續發展目標做出貢獻，特別是目標3：良好的健康和福祉。我們還在一系列核心 ESG 議題上擁有一流的實踐，我們的 4 個系統支柱中的其他 3 個也是重點關注的問題。我們相信，這提供了一種獨特的組合，使永續性成為創新和成長的真正驅動力。透過將永續發展融入我們業務的核心，我們可以為股東和整個社會創造價值。

To conclude, our Q3 result were stronger than expected, and we have raised our full year guidance to reflect around plus 5% to plus 6% organic EPS growth. We are building a business through RRPs to deliver superior and sustainable growth over the coming years. The continued momentum of IQOS through the challenges of the pandemic demonstrate the structural growth characteristic. We are also committed to maintaining the competitiveness of our combustible business.

總而言之，我們第三季的業績強於預期，我們提高了全年指導，以反映約 5% 至 6% 的有機每股收益成長。我們正在透過建議零售價建立業務，以在未來幾年實現卓越和可持續的成長。 IQOS在疫情挑戰下的持續成長表現出結構性成長特徵。我們也致力於保持我們的可燃業務的競爭力。

We have a number of levers for growth in our top and bottom line: first, the powerful mix effect of RRPs; second, pricing, which will remain important for combustible and where appropriate for RRPs; additionally, efficiency in our manufacturing and SG&A cost are further levers as we continue to hone our business model.

我們有許多槓桿可以實現收入和利潤的成長：首先，建議零售價的強大組合效應；其次，定價對於可燃物以及適當的建議零售價仍然很重要；此外，隨著我們不斷完善我們的業務模式，我們的製造效率和銷售、一般管理成本是進一步的槓桿。

Moreover, with the launches of the IQOS VEEV and lil product, we are broadening and stepping up our product offer and innovation in 2021. You can also expect us to bring further exciting innovation to our IQOS heat-not-burn platform.

此外，隨著 IQOS VEEV 和 lil 產品的推出，我們將在 2021 年擴大和加強我們的產品供應和創新。

As I just mentioned, sustainability and ESG are at the heart of our smoke-free strategy, and we continue to work tirelessly to further our mission. As we all know, there remain continued uncertainty regarding the pandemic, the impact of social restriction and their economic aftermath. However, when COVID-related headwinds abate, we expect to resume growth, consistent with the currency-neutral compound annual growth rate in our 2019-2021 algorithm of at least 5% net revenue growth and at least 8% adjusted diluted EPS growth on an organic basis.

正如我剛才提到的，永續發展和 ESG 是我們無菸策略的核心，我們將繼續不懈努力，以進一步推進我們的使命。眾所周知，疫情、社會限制的影響及其經濟後果仍存在持續的不確定性。然而，當與新冠病毒相關的不利因素減弱時，我們預計將恢復成長，這與我們2019-2021 年演算法中的貨幣中性複合年增長率一致，即淨收入增長至少5%，調整後稀釋每股收益成長至少8%。

In short, we look forward with confidence, and we will expand on these topics further at our next Investor Day, which we plan to hold in early 2021.

簡而言之，我們滿懷信心地期待著未來，並將在下一次投資者日（我們計劃於 2021 年初舉行）進一步討論這些主題。

Thank you. I'm now more than happy to answer your questions.

謝謝。我現在非常樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Adam Spielman of Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Adam Spielman。

So my first question, you reiterated that you're very, very comfortable with the 90 billion to 100 billion target for 2021 for RRPs. Are you still comfortable that you are -- will exceed 250 billion in 2025, which is your other longer-term target? That's my first question.

所以我的第一個問題，您重申您對 2021 年 900 億至 1000 億的建議零售價目標非常非常滿意。您仍然對 2025 年突破 2500 億美元（您的另一個長期目標）感到滿意嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Thanks, Adam. We definitely are repeating our ambition to reach next year 20 -- 200 billion stick in the heat-not-burn category, and I think that the growth that we deliver quarter-after-quarter is clearly pointing to that direction.

謝謝，亞當。我們肯定會重申我們的雄心壯志，即明年達到 2000 至 2000 億美元用於加熱不燃燒類別，而且我認為我們每個季度實現的增長顯然都指向了這個方向。

Then you are alluding to the 2025 objective of a 250 billion Plus, which is, I think here, aligned with what I've started to detail on the presentation, which is really the fact that we are broadening the portfolio when it comes to RRPs product. And we are going to, of course, come with more enrichment, more segmentation, more offering when it comes to heat-not-burn. We are entering the e-vaping category. And all that is going to put us on the track to deliver that ambition.

然後你提到了 2025 年 2500 億美元以上的目標，我認為這與我在演示中開始詳細介紹的內容是一致的，這實際上是我們在建議零售價方面正在擴大投資組合的事實產品。當然，在加熱不燃燒方面，我們將提供更多的豐富、更多的細分、更多的產品。我們正在進入電子煙類別。所有這些都將使我們走上實現這雄心的軌道。

And I think everything I've been saying in term of segmentation of the devices now that we are coming with the lil offering. What we have started to do now in Japan, in Russia, when it comes to the consumable, it show that we are clearly now that -- the market is getting a bit more mature. Of course, it's still at an early stage in most places. But in a few places, we have some first element of a bigger market. It is time now to enrich the offering and broaden the spectrum of what we can offer to, I would say, conquer and convince more smoker to switch to our product. And therefore, that is what is going to put us on the right track for this ambition for 2025.

我認為，既然我們推出了 lil 產品，我在設備細分方面所說的一切都是如此。我們現在在日本和俄羅斯開始做的事情，在消費品方面，它表明我們現在顯然——市場正在變得更加成熟。當然，在大多數地方還處於早期階段。但在某些地方，我們擁有更大市場的一些首要要素。現在是時候豐富我們的產品並擴大我們可以提供的產品範圍，我想說的是，征服並說服更多吸煙者轉向我們的產品。因此，這將使我們走上實現 2025 年雄心壯志的正確軌道。

And then (inaudible). I don't want to put words in your mouth. But your market shares in Russia, in Japan, they grew in Q3 but sequentially less than in Q2. And I'm wondering why that was, do you think, and whether really it's significant or it's just sort of random quarterly fluctuations and we should just ignore that one?

然後（聽不清楚）。我不想把話塞到你嘴裡。但你們在俄羅斯和日本的市佔率在第三季有所成長，但較上季低於第二季。我想知道為什麼會這樣，你認為它是否真的很重要，或者只是一種隨機的季度波動，我們應該忽略它？

Yes. I don't think that there is anything to be read there. I think that we are very happy with the performance on the key market. Of course, what has been -- and depending on the season and the consumption pattern and what has been happening on the borders, we know that some border were closed. We talked about illicit trade being stopped. I mean that can be disruptors to the evolution, if you take a kind of flash or spot quarter view. But I would say the trend that we have seen in Q3, we are very much aligned with the nice strong trend that we've been observing over the first part of the year, over H1. So I don't think that there is anything in Q3 that would be signaling a slowdown in the way we are gaining share in an underlying manner.

是的。我認為那裡沒有什麼可讀的。我認為我們對關鍵市場的表現非常滿意。當然，根據季節、消費模式以及邊境發生的情況，我們知道一些邊境已關閉。我們談到了非法貿易被制止的問題。我的意思是，如果你採取某種閃現或現貨季度的觀點，這可能會破壞這一發展。但我想說的是，我們在第三季看到的趨勢與我們在今年上半年（上半年）觀察到的強勁趨勢非常一致。因此，我認為第三季沒有任何事情表明我們以潛在的方式獲得份額的方式放緩。

Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

So there's obviously a lot of ongoing uncertainty, but as you just reiterated, you are on track for your heated tobacco target for 2021. I guess broadly, how are you thinking about how you're positioned for growth next year? And do you anticipate accelerating growth as you lap the performance this year and see benefits from the enforcement of minimum price increases in Indonesia?

因此，顯然存在著許多持續的不確定性，但正如您剛才重申的那樣，您正在實現 2021 年加熱菸草目標。隨著今年的業績成長，您是否預計會加速成長，並看到印尼執行最低價格上漲的好處？

Well, thanks for the question. Obviously, it's very early stage to start talking about next year. I think you very rightly said it, 2021 is full of uncertainty. And we even recognized that the last months of 2020 have their fair share of uncertainty as well. So difficult to, of course, start to elaborate on 2021.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。顯然，現在開始談論明年還為時過早。我覺得你說得非常對，2021年充滿了不確定性。我們甚至認識到 2020 年最後幾個月也存在相當大的不確定性。當然，要開始詳細闡述 2021 年是很困難的。

The only thing I can say at that stage is that we are going to enter 2021 with the strength of our RRP business. That is clear from this first 9 months performance. There will be certainly a number of low comps in the basis of 2020, but as we don't know how the markets are going to be in 2021. And if I take the example of Duty Free, which, of course, you could say, we're going to have 9 months with very, very low business in Duty Free in 2020. So one could argue whether that's an easy basis of comparison. But nobody is able to say today what's going to be the rebound next year of Duty Free.

在那個階段我唯一能說的是，我們將憑藉 RRP 業務的實力進入 2021 年。從前 9 個月的表現可以清楚看出這一點。 2020 年肯定會有一些低競爭，但我們不知道 2021 年市場會如何。因此，人們可能會爭論這是否是一個簡單的比較基礎。但今天沒有人能夠預測明年免稅店的反彈情況如何。

So it's just difficult to say which kind of growth trajectory at that stage it design, if you want. I hope we'll know more at the beginning of 2021 when we will comment on our full year 2020. And at that stage, we can share a more detailed view. But I think that for us, the main element today that I would say is a kind of for sure, whatever is the environment, is a very, very strong performance of our heat-not-burn business.

因此，如果你願意的話，很難說它在那個階段設計了哪種成長軌跡。我希望我們能在 2021 年初了解更多，屆時我們將對 2020 年全年進行評論。但我認為，對我們來說，今天我要說的主要因素是，無論環境如何，我們的加熱不燃燒業務的表現都非常非常強勁。

And also, obviously, very strong margin performance in the quarter. Can you elaborate on the factors that contributed to that in terms of lower marketing and administrative costs? You pointed out manufacturing efficiencies. How are your IQOS customer acquisition costs trending? And how much of the lower cost is temporary versus sustainable going forward?

顯然，本季的利潤率表現非常強勁。能否詳細說明導致行銷和管理成本降低的因素？您指出了製造效率。您的 IQOS 客戶獲取成本趨勢如何？降低的成本有多少是暫時的，而不是未來可持續的？

Sure. Happy to do that. Well, the margin improvement is -- and that's probably the strength of the performance, is not coming from one element. I think it's a collection of driver that we have to add to the top line evolution, nice margin evolution. And that is coming, first, of course, from the growth of RRPs. And I think we are showing this quarter's impact on the gross margin of the positive impact on the mix of the consumable in heat-not-burn. And as we keep growing the business, that is, of course, a nice mix positive impact, clearly helping the margin.

當然。很高興這樣做。嗯，利潤率的提高是──這可能是業績的優勢，而不是來自某一因素。我認為這是我們必須添加到頂線演變、良好利潤率演變中的一系列驅動因素。當然，這首先來自建議零售價的成長。我認為我們正在展示本季對加熱不燃燒消耗品組合的正面影響對毛利率的影響。隨著我們業務的不斷發展，這當然會產生良好的全面正面影響，顯然有助於提高利潤。

There is also everything we are doing on price. And we keep clearly working in the direction of improving nicely price on combustible. There is -- and I would be happy to elaborate further if you want.

還有我們在價格方面所做的一切。我們一直在努力提高可燃物的價格。如果您願意的話，我很樂意進一步詳細說明。

Then there is, of course, everything we do on manufacturing productivity, which is also a nice driver. And then below the gross profit, you're right. We have this very positive evolution of our SG&A, where we managed to decrease, on an organic basis, SG&A by about 7% when the decrease of the top line is only 1.5%. So we have a nice leverage, if you want, between the 2.

當然，還有我們在製造生產力方面所做的一切，這也是一個很好的驅動因素。然後低於毛利，你是對的。我們的 SG&A 取得了非常積極的進展，在有機基礎上，我們成功地將 SG&A 降低了約 7%，而營收僅下降了 1.5%。所以如果你願意的話，我們在兩者之間有一個很好的槓桿作用。

And here, you have a mix of things. First of all, yes, of course, we are working on the efficiency of our costs. So all functions, all team are working on -- working in a simpler, more efficient, more digitized manner. We are platforming our work. We are standardizing. We are automating. We are using digital in all capacity in order to work in a more efficient manner. So that is contributing to certainly some saving.

在這裡，你會遇到各種各樣的事情。首先，是的，當然，我們正在努力提高成本效率。因此，所有職能、所有團隊都在努力工作——以更簡單、更有效率、更數位化的方式工作。我們正在平台化我們的工作。我們正在標準化。我們正在自動化。我們正在全力使用數位技術，以便以更有效率的方式運作。所以這肯定有助於節省一些費用。

Then on top of all this effort, you're absolutely right, we have increased efficiency as we turn toward a more digital commercial engine on RRPs. And that is, of course, something that is going to accompany us on the long term. We build at the origin the IQOS business with a business model we know, with a lot of physical cultures and based on having some retail places that we were owning. And that was great to start. We needed to do that.

然後，除了所有這些努力之外，您絕對是正確的，隨著我們轉向 RRP 上更數位化的商業引擎，我們提高了效率。當然，這將長期伴隨我們。我們從一開始就以我們熟悉的商業模式、大量的實體文化以及我們擁有的一些零售店為基礎建立了 IQOS 業務。這是一個很好的開始。我們需要這樣做。

But of course, as we are growing the market, as we are learning about it and as we are developing our digital skills, we are indeed developing a tool, which is really efficient, both in term of digital customer experience and in term of digital trade experience. And that is allowing us to be much more efficient in contacting smoker that we can convince to switch to IQOS, in explaining and accompanying them on answering all their question, in coaching them in a digital manner for them to understand how it works, how it's a global experience.

但當然，隨著我們不斷發展市場，隨著我們不斷了解它，隨著我們不斷發展數位技能，我們確實正在開發一種工具，無論是在數位客戶體驗方面還是在數位化方面，它都非常有效率。貿易經驗。這使我們能夠更有效地聯繫吸煙者，說服他們改用 IQOS，解釋並陪伴他們回答所有問題，以數位方式指導他們了解它是如何運作的，它是如何運作的。

To answer the question, we have been creating communities where people switching to IQOS can exchange their impressions and their tips. And then once it is done, of course, the job is not done, and we are moving to retention and really build this intimacies through having a lot of data about our customer of IQOS and really being able to bring them the best overall experience and keep them as a customer of our heat-not-burn business.

為了回答這個問題，我們一直在創建社區，讓改用 IQOS 的人們可以交流他們的印象和技巧。當然，一旦完成，工作還沒有完成，我們正在轉向留存，並通過擁有有關 IQOS 客戶的大量數據並真正能夠為他們帶來最佳的整體體驗和真正建立這種親密關係。燃燒業務的客戶。

So that's what we are doing today. And absolutely, that is translating into a reduced cost of acquisition and a reduced cost of retention. We are certainly not at the end of this improvement, but that is nicely helping the performance in 2020, for sure.

這就是我們今天所做的。毫無疑問，這意味著獲取成本和保留成本的降低。我們當然還沒有完成這項改進，但這無疑對 2020 年的表現有很大幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

You've launched in some markets this year, and certainly it doesn't seem like the easiest of circumstances to really get those going with pandemic closures and restrictions. But you've got some like Saudi Arabia already at 40 basis points of share. Obviously small, but France took several years to get to that; Mexico also, 20 basis points. It's early, but these look like they're a pretty good start. Can you touch on some of what's driving that? I know you just mentioned some of the digital things. Is that really the key? Are there other factors? What's just getting some of these markets going a little bit more quickly than we've seen in the past?

今年你們已經在一些市場推出了產品，當然，要真正讓這些市場在大流行期間關閉和限制，這似乎不是最容易的情況。但沙烏地阿拉伯等國家的份額已經達到 40 個基點。顯然規模很小，但法國花了幾年時間才做到這一點；墨西哥也有20個基點。雖然還為時過早，但看起來這是一個很好的開始。您能談談推動這一趨勢的一些因素嗎？我知道你剛才提到了一些數位化的東西。這真的是關鍵嗎？還有其他因素嗎？是什麼讓其中一些市場的發展速度比我們過去看到的速度快一些？

Well, I think it's -- and each market, Michael, is different. So the answer probably could require a long explanation in answering the various type of dynamic.

嗯，我認為，邁克爾，每個市場都是不同的。因此，答案可能需要很長的解釋來回答各種類型的動態。

And starting with the regulation, of course, the capacity that we have to speak about IQOS and explain how it works. In some market, we have this capacity to explain to smoker that a better alternative does exist. In other country, we are much more limited. So that is clearly having an impact.

當然，從法規開始，我們必須談論 IQOS 並解釋其工作原理。在某些市場，我們有能力向吸煙者解釋確實存在更好的替代品。在其他國家，我們的限制要大得多。所以這顯然會產生影響。

Then certainly, there is an impact. As you grow the visibility of IQOS, as you are -- people starting to see friends, family around them using IQOS, you may have a kind of snowball effect. Maybe it's a little bit of a caricature, but I think, to some extent, it can play like that. And that can accelerate the evolution of the market.

那當然是有影響的。隨著 IQOS 的知名度不斷提高，人們開始看到周圍的朋友、家人使用 IQOS，您可能會產生一種滾雪球效應。也許這有點諷刺，但我認為，在某種程度上，它可以這樣發揮。這可以加速市場的演變。

You have also the cultural dimension, which is quite important. In some country, people will be proud of having discovered IQOS, and they will want to share that with their friends. And they will become our best salespeople, I would say, about IQOS and taking themselves the time to explain and convince friends and relatives.

還有文化層面，這非常重要。在某些國家，人們會為發現 IQOS 而感到自豪，並且他們會想與朋友分享。我想說，他們將成為我們最好的 IQOS 銷售人員，並花時間向朋友和親戚解釋和說服他們。

In other culture, it will be very different, and that won't happen because they will believe that it's a personal choice, and they don't want to interfere on that. So all that to explain the very different pattern that we are seeing in term of development of the business.

在其他文化中，情況會非常不同，而這種情況不會發生，因為他們會相信這是個人選擇，他們不想干涉這一點。所有這些都可以解釋我們在業務發展方面看到的截然不同的模式。

Having said that, you're absolutely right. The more we're going to be able to go digital and have great digital tool to contact smokers, talk about IQOS, be able to engage them in what is the IQOS experience, the more we're going to be able to grow the market. And clearly, developing the digital customer experience is going to be key, hopefully, in accelerating the growth in several markets.

話雖如此，你是完全正確的。我們越能走向數位化，擁有強大的數位工具來聯繫吸菸者、談論 IQOS、讓他們參與 IQOS 體驗，我們就越能擴大市場。顯然，發展數位客戶體驗將成為加速多個市場成長的關鍵。

But let's not underestimate the fact that regulation can be a pretty significant restriction, nevertheless, even when it's come to using digital tools. So again, that explains why -- I think there is certainly no market where we are not saying that we have the ambition to make them RRP market. But certainly, in some market, it's going to take a bit more time.

但我們不要低估這樣一個事實，即監管可能是一個相當重大的限制，即使是在使用數位工具時也是如此。所以，這再次解釋了為什麼 - 我認為肯定沒有一個市場我們不是說我們有雄心壯志將它們打造成建議零售價市場。但可以肯定的是，在某些市場，這將需要更多的時間。

Okay. That's helpful. And then we're about 5 months into the menthol ban in the EU for cigarettes. You mentioned a little bit of incremental momentum on IQOS menthol, especially in a market like Poland. There's been a big share jump there. How much is that related to menthol success, getting cigarette smokers to switch? And how much more runway is there for that to go?

好的。這很有幫助。歐盟對香菸的薄荷醇禁令已經實施了大約 5 個月。您提到了 IQOS 薄荷醇的一點增量動力，尤其是在波蘭這樣的市場。那裡的股價大幅上漲。這與薄荷醇的成功、讓吸菸者戒菸有多大關係？還有多少跑道可供使用？

Sure, Michael. What I can share with you is that -- so you remember that menthol was roughly speaking, 10% of the EU market altogether. I think the vast majority of the menthol smokers have been switching to other type of combustible cigarette. So I don't think that there has been -- certainly not the -- maybe what was up in term of people stopping to smoke. It's probably a few percent, but no more than that.

當然，邁克爾。我可以與您分享的是——所以您還記得，粗略地說，薄荷醇總共佔歐盟市場的 10%。我認為絕大多數薄荷醇吸煙者已經改用其他類型的可燃香煙。所以我認為人們停止吸煙方面可能並沒有發生過——當然不是——可能發生的事情。可能只有百分之幾，但也不會更多。

And when it comes to switching to other alternatives like heat-not-burns and IQOS in particular, maybe around 5% of the people have done that so far, which doesn't mean that we are giving up. We think that we can certainly convince more people. But I think the impact has been relatively limited. You're right, probably helping a little bit in Poland, maybe in the U.K. as well, which are 2 big market for menthol. But I will not say that it has been having a big, big positive impact so far on our IQOS business.

當談到轉向其他替代品時，例如加熱不燃燒和 IQOS，到目前為止，大約有 5% 的人已經這樣做了，這並不意味著我們要放棄。我們認為我們一定可以說服更多的人。但我認為影響相對有限。你是對的，可能對波蘭有一點幫助，也許對英國也有幫助，這是薄荷醇的兩大市場。但我不會說到目前為止它對我們的 IQOS 業務產生了巨大的正面影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

Appreciate all the detail around digitization and IQOS user engagement. Seemingly, a lot of the hard investments, you guys made early, and then the incremental investments are paying off. I was wondering if we could kind of pull that all together and perhaps quantify the evolution of your IQOS user acquisition costs, in particular, over the course of 2020 given COVID.

欣賞有關數位化和 IQOS 用戶參與的所有細節。看起來，你們很早就進行了很多艱苦的投資，然後增量投資正在得到回報。我想知道我們是否可以將所有這些綜合起來，或許可以量化 IQOS 用戶獲取成本的演變，特別是在 2020 年新冠疫情期間。

Well, I understand the question. But at that stage, I think we're not going to enter into more granularity. I think we are giving through this set of numbers and presentation more detail on the driver for profitability. So I'm sure that you're able to capture through the gross margin evolution and other element that we are giving some elements.

嗯，我明白這個問題了。但在那個階段，我認為我們不會進入更細化的階段。我認為我們透過這組數字和演示提供了更多有關盈利驅動因素的細節。因此，我確信您能夠透過毛利率演變和我們提供的其他要素來捕獲一些要素。

But it's obviously as you can imagine, a relatively strategic information, sensitive. And therefore, it's not something that we can share. But I'm certainly happy to confirm that we are seeing a significant decrease and that we have ambition for more significant decrease in the future.

但這顯然正如你可以想像的那樣，是一個相對戰略性的信息，比較敏感。因此，這不是我們可以分享的東西。但我當然很高興確認我們正在看到顯著下降，並且我們有雄心壯志在未來實現更顯著的下降。

So I'm just reiterating my comment that you should expect more improvement on the ramping up of the profitability of our RRP business in the future, which is really great because we are combining a big, big driver for the top line growth, quite obviously. And in addition, a nice driver for profitability improvement.

因此，我只是重申我的評論，您應該期待未來我們的 RRP 業務盈利能力的進一步提高，這真的很棒，因為我們正在結合一個巨大的收入增長驅動力，很明顯。此外，這也是獲利能力提高的良好推動力。

Okay. That's fair. And my second question is just on price gaps in the heat-not-burn category. Makes a lot of sense to me that you would want to introduce a tiered portfolio as your penetration continues to mature, if you will. How are you thinking about those price gaps relative to combustibles, though? I mean you've used the same kind of descriptive language in terms of the price segmentation in Russia. Are we meant to take that to understand that you're going to match price gaps against combustibles with a tiered heat-not-burn consumable portfolio? Or is there a reason to think it might vary?

好的。這很公平。我的第二個問題是關於加熱不燃燒類別的價格差距。如果您願意的話，隨著您的滲透率不斷成熟，您希望引入分層投資組合，這對我來說很有意義。不過，您如何看待相對於可燃物的價格差距呢？我的意思是，您在俄羅斯的價格細分方面使用了相同的描述性語言。我們是否應該以此來理解您將透過分層加熱不燃燒消耗品組合來匹配可燃物的價格差距？或者有理由認為它可能會有所不同嗎？

Well, as you know, globally, we have a position because it deserves it, our RRP business as a premium business. It's a unique consumer experience, and that fully justify a premium price positioning.

嗯，如您所知，在全球範圍內，我們的零售價業務是一項優質業務，因為這是它應得的地位。這是一種獨特的消費者體驗，完全證明了其高價定位的合理性。

Now of course, as you know, in some country as well, the excise duty level is lower; sometimes, materially lower on RRPs and on heat-not-burn than on combustible cigarettes. And therefore, that is also justifying a lower price point. So I would say, as a rule, we have our combustible that are priced at the price on Marlboro or sometimes even a bit below Marlboro.

當然，正如您所知，現在也有一些國家的消費稅水平較低；有時，建議零售價和加熱不燃燒捲菸的價格比可燃捲菸低得多。因此，這也證明了較低的價格點是合理的。所以我想說，一般來說，我們的可燃物的價格是萬寶路的價格，有時甚至比萬寶路的價格低一點。

And I think it's a good positioning, the sweet spot, to really reflect the overall experience and the value for the consumer, but also the specificity of the heat-not-burn category and our heat-not-burn product.

我認為這是一個很好的定位，最有效的點，可以真正反映消費者的整體體驗和價值，同時也體現了加熱不燃燒類別和我們的加熱不燃燒產品的特殊性。

And in segmentation, we're going to do the same. It's of course related to the customer experience as well. And all 3 consumable are not the same, and they don't deliver the same experience. And exactly like we have been doing for decades on consumable, depending on the level of, I would say, benefit, value for the consumer, the -- we know what is perceiving, the overall pleasure and positive dimension for him, we'll have different price positioning that will be aligned with that. I don't think we should expect anything really materially different there.

在細分方面，我們也會做同樣的事情。當然，這也與客戶體驗有關。所有 3 種消耗品都不一樣，而且它們無法提供相同的體驗。就像我們幾十年來在消費品方面所做的那樣，取決於消費者的利益和價值的水平，我們知道他的感知是什麼，整體的愉悅感和積極的維度，我們將有不同的價格定位與之保持一致。我認為我們不應該期待那裡有任何真正的實質不同。

Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

Your quarter was stronger than expected, and you're seeing a better demand environment. And then you also took up guidance again. So I guess I'd like to get your thoughts on resuming your share buyback program and if this might be realistic next year. It seems like you have flexibility. And I guess I think of it as an important positive signal for the market that probably would be viewed favorably. So I just think it would probably help to support your stock price. So I'd love to hear what your current thinking is on this.

您的季度業績強於預期，並且您看到了更好的需求環境。然後你又開始接受指導了。因此，我想了解您對恢復股票回購計畫的想法，以及明年這是否可行。看來你很有彈性。我想我認為這對市場來說是一個重要的正面訊號，可能會受到青睞。所以我認為這可能有助於支撐你的股價。所以我很想聽聽您目前對此的想法。

Thanks for the question, Bonnie. We haven't changed our mind at that stage on the buyback. We've announced, as you know, a 2.6% increase of the dividend to $4.80 a year. So we continue to reward the shareholders. And I think we stated in the past, and we are very much on that line, that we will not start a share buyback that could potentially endanger the rating. And I'm not sure that today, we have a huge flexibility on that rating with the balance sheet that we have today. So we have a very strong balance sheet, and we want to keep that. I don't think that we would love to be losing some notch in the rating because of buyback.

謝謝你的提問，邦妮。我們在回購的階段沒有改變主意。如您所知，我們已宣布將股息增加 2.6%，達到每年 4.80 美元。所以我們繼續回報股東。我認為我們過去曾說過，而且我們非常堅持這一點，我們不會啟動可能危及評級的股票回購。我不確定今天我們的資產負債表的評級是否具有巨大的靈活性。因此，我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，我們希望保持這一點。我認為我們不希望因為回購而導致評級下降。

So I'm not closing the door on the long term. Of course, it's a moving situation. And as we keep generating cash and strengthening the balance sheet, we may, together with the Board, decide to change that. But for the time being, this is not on the agenda.

所以長遠來看我不會關上大門。當然，這是一個令人感動的情況。隨著我們不斷產生現金並加強資產負債表，我們可能會與董事會一起決定改變這種狀況。但目前，這還沒有提上議程。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I know it's early, but I was hoping to get maybe your thoughts on what you see as the key tailwinds or maybe headwinds as we look out into '21. I guess as I'm thinking about your business and what you've accomplished during this pandemic, it seems like the setup is quite positive, especially if I think through a few tailwinds, such as, for instance, the one you have in Japan. I'm not asking for guidance for next year, but is there a way that you could just kind of lay out a few of these tailwinds as you see them for your business and/or possibly headwinds?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我知道現在還為時過早，但我希望在我們展望 21 世紀時，了解您對關鍵順風或逆風的看法。我想，當我思考你們的業務以及你們在這次大流行期間所取得的成就時，情況似乎相當積極，特別是如果我考慮到一些順風因素，例如你們在日本的逆風。我並不是尋求明年的指導，但有沒有一種方法可以讓您在看到對您的業務有利的順風車和/或可能的逆風時列出一些順風車？

Thanks, Bonnie, for not asking for the guidance because I would not give it anyway.

謝謝邦妮，謝謝你沒有尋求指導，因為無論如何我都不會給予指導。

Trying to elaborate on tailwind and headwinds. I think the tailwinds are quite obvious. We have this RRP business that is almost 1/4 of the business. So it's very material in term of share of revenue. That is growing very strongly. We talk about a growth of about 28%, 29% year-to-date.

試著詳細說明順風和逆風。我認為順風是相當明顯的。我們這個RRP業務幾乎佔了業務的1/4。因此，就收入份額而言，它非常重要。這種成長非常強勁。我們談論的是今年迄今約 28%、29% 的成長。

We see a number of market that are actually contributing to the dynamism. We are, as we've said, enriching the offer. So we see that we start to enter into a new phase of this ambition of creating this category that we think one day will be, I would say, putting an end to a smoking world by this segmentation enrichment of the offer. So we have here a very powerful tailwind that is going to help us as we enter into 2021.

我們看到許多市場實際上為這種活力做出了貢獻。正如我們所說，我們正在豐富我們的產品。因此，我們看到我們開始進入創建這個類別的雄心壯志的新階段，我想說，有一天，我們將透過細分產品的豐富化來結束吸煙世界。因此，我們擁有非常強大的順風，這將在我們進入 2021 年時為我們提供幫助。

And as you have seen, it's not only, as I said, positive for the top line but it's also nicely positive for the bottom line because we are ramping up the profitability on that business, and that is a business that has a potential to be super nicely profitable.

正如你所看到的，正如我所說，這不僅對營收有正面的影響，而且對淨利潤也有很大的正面影響，因為我們正在提高該業務的獲利能力，而這是一項有潛力的業務超好賺。

Then of course, I said it, you have all these very low comps that we're going to have in a few markets. We have this Q2 that have been very difficult. You have the Duty Free business that is extremely depressed. So one could argue that if things were to start gradually in 2021 to be back to normal, but that could provide easy comp for growth.

當然，我說過，我們在一些市場上的競爭非常低。我們的第二季非常困難。免稅店業務極度蕭條。因此，有人可能會說，如果事情在 2021 年開始逐漸恢復正常，但這可能會為成長提供輕鬆的補償。

Now that, unfortunately, is a segue for headwinds because we don't know what's going to be the environment. More and more people are saying that we're not going to be back to normal, maybe until the summer of 2021. Nobody knows what exactly it means, by the way. But people are saying when the vaccine will be available, which could be summer 2021, that's the condition to be back to some more normality. And therefore, we don't know how it's going to play out globally on the business.

不幸的是，現在這將是一個逆風，因為我們不知道環境會是什麼樣子。越來越多的人說，我們可能要等到 2021 年夏天才能恢復正常。但人們表示，疫苗何時上市（可能是 2021 年夏季）才是恢復正常的條件。因此，我們不知道它將如何在全球範圍內發揮作用。

But I think we are taking comfort and confidence from the fact that 2020 will not have been a walk in the park, that's for sure. And despite that, we are delivering what I consider to be a robust performance and targeting now a nice organic growth for the adjusted EPS. So it show that even in a difficult environment, we managed to deliver a nice performance.

但我認為，2020 年不會像在公園散步一樣輕鬆，這一事實讓我們感到安慰和信心，這是肯定的。儘管如此，我們仍提供了我認為強勁的業績，現在的目標是調整後的每股盈餘實現良好的有機成長。這表明，即使在困難的環境下，我們也能取得不錯的表現。

Our next question comes from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Emmanuel, so a couple of questions. One is on the CapEx. The CapEx was again reduced to $600 million. And now it is meaningfully below depreciation, which runs at about $950 million for your company. So is this the new run rate of CapEx? And can your depreciation step down in the future?

伊曼紐爾，有幾個問題。一是資本支出。資本支出再次減少至 6 億美元。現在，它的折舊率明顯低於貴公司的折舊額，約為 9.5 億美元。那麼這是新的資本支出運作率嗎？未來你的貶值能下降嗎？

Sure, Gaurav. So no, this is not the new normal for the company. We are obviously going through stormy water, so it's an adjustment. And there is a number of projects, by the way, that given the environment, we prefer to postpone. So that explain why we are now targeting $0.6 billion for the year.

當然，高拉夫。所以不，這不是公司的新常態。顯然我們正在經歷暴風雨，所以這是一個調整。順便說一句，考慮到環境，我們寧願推遲一些項目。這就解釋了為什麼我們現在的目標是 6 億美元。

I think you can expect us when we are back to a more normal environment to be back to a more normal CapEx amount that I would say probably to be around $0.8 billion. So that could stay below the level you're right of amortization and depreciation. That is north of $900 million today.

我認為，當我們回到更正常的環境時，您可以期望我們回到更正常的資本支出金額，我想說可能約為 8 億美元。因此，這可能會低於您正確的攤銷和折舊等級。今天這個數字已超過 9 億美元。

And of course, over time, if it continues like that, that will mean that this amount will decrease as well. You're absolutely right. I'm not able to give you a phasing for that, but that should be over time, a natural evolution. Now of course, with the carryover effect, it will take some time.

當然，隨著時間的推移，如果繼續這樣下去，那就意味著這個數量也會減少。你是絕對正確的。我無法給你一個階段性的信息，但這應該是隨著時間的推移、自然的演變。當然，現在考慮到殘留效應，還需要一些時間。

Sure. And my second question is on your travel retail business, where you have booked 0 revenues on IQOS in the Middle East and Africa line. And clearly, the market is not down 100%. So you are supplying out of inventory. So is there any risk of inventory write-down in travel retail?

當然。我的第二個問題是關於你們的旅遊零售業務，你們在中東和非洲線的 IQOS 上預訂了 0 收入。顯然，市場並沒有下跌 100%。所以你們供應的庫存不足。那麼旅遊零售是否有庫存減記的風險呢？

I think at the end of September, we have been taking care of the potential impact of that. So I would not expect anything major for the rest of the year.

我認為在九月底，我們一直在考慮其潛在影響。因此，我預計今年剩餘時間不會發生任何重大事件。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

Emmanuel, I just had a question for me, if I could, on some of the inventory adjustments that occurred in the quarter. And just to understand, so IQOS had an inventory drag that weighed on its volume in the quarter. You reported an even stronger performance for that brand excluding the inventory changes. Are inventories, say, for IQOS -- I guess I'd be curious for your business overall. Are they at the right level? Or are there expected changes to occur in the fourth quarter on inventory, perhaps $1 billion inventory?

伊曼紐爾，如果可以的話，我只是想問我一個關於本季發生的一些庫存調整的問題。 IQOS 的庫存拖累影響了該季度的銷售。您報告的該品牌的業績表現甚至更強（不包括庫存變化）。比如說 IQOS 的庫存嗎？他們處於正確的水平嗎？或者第四季的庫存是否會出現預期的變化，也許是 10 億美元的庫存？

No. Chris, I think that you're right, and I think we flagged in H1 that there was a number of country with some anticipation on inventory. We got the reversal of that in Q3.

不，克里斯，我認為你是對的，我認為我們在上半年就指出，有一些國家對庫存有一定的預期。我們在第三季度得到了逆轉。

You're right. If you retreat the shipment by that, we have recalled around 20.5 billion stick of in-market sales, which is -- I mean it's quite a symbolic threshold, but to be above 20 billion is quite nice.

你說得對。如果你以這個比例撤回出貨量，我們已經召回了大約205 億棒的市場銷售額，這是——我的意思是，這是一個相當具有像徵意義的門檻，但超過200 億棒就相當不錯了。

And we believe that we are globally at the right level at the end of September. So we're not expecting today in Q4 any material impact on inventory for heat-not-burn.

我們相信，到 9 月底，我們在全球範圍內處於正確的水平。因此，我們預計第四季度不會對加熱不燃燒的庫存產生任何重大影響。

Okay. And then just a second question on VEEV. And kind of just understand the degree, which you can undertake a wider-scale launch in more markets in the fourth quarter. Are there production limitations there? Obviously, I'm sure there are at this point. But just to understand how you think about the progression of that launch in more markets in -- starting in the fourth quarter.

好的。接下來是關於 VEEV 的第二個問題。只要了解程度，您就可以在第四季度在更多市場進行更廣泛的發布。那裡有生產限制嗎？顯然，我確信此時是存在的。但只是為了了解您如何看待從第四季度開始在更多市場推出產品的進展。

So there could be a very limited number of market launch in Q4. I think we're taking the time to have all the lesson learned from what we've seen in New Zealand to make sure that when we launch, we are super ready and very successful.

因此，第四季推出的市場數量可能非常有限。我認為我們正在花時間從紐西蘭所見所聞中吸取所有教訓，以確保當我們推出時，我們已經做好了充分準備並且非常成功。

There are certainly things around age verification on which we are still working and which are very important for us, as you know. So we are still working on these various dimensions. So don't expect too much in Q4. I think the big new launches will be more for 2021.

如您所知，我們仍在努力解決年齡驗證方面的一些問題，這些問題對我們來說非常重要。所以我們仍在研究這些不同的維度。所以不要對第四季抱太大期望。我認為 2021 年將會有更多大型新品發表。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

Emmanuel, hope you're well. And first question, please, I just wanted to come back to Adam's, in the 250 billion target by 2025. So you mentioned the role, the expansion of the portfolio into e-vapor here. And obviously very different economics between heated and vapor. So how do you see that 250 billion being split between the 2 categories? I know very early days but kind of a rough idea internally how you see that evolving.

伊曼紐爾，希望你一切都好。第一個問題，我只想回到 Adam 的問題，到 2025 年實現 2500 億美元的目標。 所以你在這裡提到了這個角色，將投資組合擴展到電子蒸汽領域。顯然，加熱和蒸汽之間的經濟性非常不同。那麼您如何看待這 2500 億美元在這兩類之間的分配呢？我很早就知道了，但內部對你如何看待這種演變有一個粗略的想法。

Sure, Owen. So we haven't been splitting the 250 billion. So I won't do it now. I think we believe that quite obviously, each RRP category has a play in getting there. But there is no doubt that we continue to see the heat-not-burn category as being, I would say, the majority of this 250 billion. So we certainly intend to develop e-vaping and IQOS VEEV and other things that we could launch from now until 2025.

當然，歐文。所以我們並沒有分割這2500億。所以我現在不會這麼做。我認為我們相信，很明顯，每個建議零售價類別在實現這一目標方面都有作用。但毫無疑問，我們仍然認為加熱不燃燒類別佔據了這 2500 億美元中的大部分。因此，我們當然打算開發電子煙和 IQOS VEEV 以及我們可以從現在到 2025 年推出的其他產品。

But I think you should expect still a big part of this -- a big majority of the 250 billion to come from heat-not-burn. Remember, I mean, this is an aspiration that we've been sharing. I think as we progress, we'll make sure that we put more detail around that. So bear with us. We're going to certainly continue to give more vision, more visibility. But at this stage, I cannot split further the 250 billion.

但我認為你應該預料到其中很大一部分——2500 億美元中的大部分將來自加熱而非燃燒。請記住，我的意思是，這是我們一直以來共同的願望。我認為隨著我們的進展，我們將確保圍繞這一點提供更多細節。所以請耐心等待。我們當然會繼續提供更多的願景、更多的知名度。但現階段我無法進一步分割這2500億。

And quite obviously, we want to developing in a profitable manner. So that is also drive the choices and the final number in the split of the 250 billion.

很明顯，我們希望以盈利的方式發展。這也推動了 2500 億分裂中的選擇和最終數字。

Okay. And second one, I was hoping you could give me the ex-inventory heated volumes in Eastern Europe for Q1, Q2 and Q3. Just see how that's kind of progressing, stripping the inventory in packs out?

好的。第二，我希望你能給我東歐第一季、第二季和第三季的前庫存加熱量。看看進度如何，把庫存一包一包地清掉？

Well, I don't have that with me. But I can see with the team, maybe as toward whether this is something that we can find, Owen, for you. Thank you. Thank you.

嗯，我沒帶那個。但我可以和團隊一起看看，也許這是否是我們可以為你找到的東西，歐文。謝謝。謝謝。

And thank you. We have reached the allotted time for questions. I'd now like to turn the call back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝你。我們已經到了規定的提問時間。我現在想將電話轉回給管理層，以徵求任何補充或結束語。

Well, thank you very much. That concludes our call for today. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again, and have a great day.

嗯，非常感謝。我們今天的呼籲到此結束。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you all. Talk to you soon. Bye.

謝謝大家。很快就和你談談。再見。

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。