菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Philip Morris International First Quarter 2021 Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加菲利普莫里斯國際2021年第一季年終業績電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的發言和問答環節。 （操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係和財務傳播副總裁尼克·羅利先生。先生，請講。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us.

歡迎您，感謝您的加入。

Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2021 first quarter results. You may access the release on www.pmi.com or the PMI IR app. A glossary of terms, including the definition for reduced-risk products, or RRPs, as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures and additional heated tobacco unit market share data are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted to the website. Unless otherwise stated, all references to IQOS are to our IQOS heat-not-burn products. All references to smoke-free products are to our RRPs. Please also note that growth rates presented on an organic basis reflect currency-neutral underlying results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含我們2021年第一季業績的詳細資訊。您可以透過www.pmi.com或PMI IR應用程式存取該新聞稿。今天的網路直播幻燈片末尾提供了術語表，包括低風險產品（RRP）的定義，以及調整、其他計算、與最直接可比較的美國公認會計準則（GAAP）指標的對賬，以及其他加熱煙草產品市場份額數據，這些幻燈片已發佈在網站上。除非另有說明，否則所有提及IQOS的產品均指我們的IQOS加熱不燃燒產品。所有提及無菸產品的產品均指我們的RRP。另請注意，以有機基礎呈現的成長率反映的是貨幣中性的基礎表現。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. Please also note the additional forward-looking and cautionary statements related to COVID-19.

今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述和對未來業績的預測。請您注意今天的簡報和新聞稿中揭露的前瞻性陳述和警示性聲明，以了解可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述有重大差異的各種因素。另請注意與 COVID-19 相關的其他前瞻性陳述和警示性聲明。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Emmanuel Babeau, our Chief Financial Officer. Emmanuel?

現在我很高興介紹我們的財務長 Emmanuel Babeau。 Emmanuel？

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I hope everyone listening to the call is safe and well.

謝謝尼克，歡迎各位來賓，女士們，先生們。祝福所有收聽電話會議的人都平安無事。

Our business delivered a strong performance in the first quarter of 2021, well ahead of expectations, reaching a record-high quarterly adjusted diluted EPS of $1.57 despite the continued challenges of the global pandemic. Most impressive was the continued strong growth of IQOS, which made up 13% of our volumes and 28% of our net revenues compared to 21.7% in the prior year quarter.

我們的業務在2021年第一季表現強勁，遠超預期，儘管全球疫情持續帶來挑戰，季度調整後稀釋每股收益仍創下1.57美元的歷史新高。最令人印象深刻的是IQOS持續強勁成長，其占我們銷售量的13%，占我們淨收入的28%，而去年同期這一比例為21.7%。

We continued converting adult smokers at a very good pace and reached an estimated total of 19.1 million users, of which 14 million have switched to IQOS and stopped smoking. HTU shipment volumes grew plus 30% compared to the prior year quarter with record market shares in key IQOS geographies, 12 markets with double-digit national share and a share of 7.6% overall in IQOS market, excluding the U.S.

我們持續以非常快的速度推動成年吸菸者轉化，預計用戶總數已達1,910萬，其中1,400萬已改用IQOS並戒菸。 HTU出貨量較上年同期成長30%，在IQOS主要地區的市佔率創歷史新高，12個市場的全國市佔率達到兩位數，在不包括美國在內的IQOS市場整體佔有率達到7.6%。

Our operating margins were also significantly above the prior year quarter. And while somewhat flatted by timing factors, the bulk of this improvement reflects strong underlying performance. The resulting combination of strong organic net revenue and adjusted diluted EPS growth leads us to raise our outlook for the year.

我們的營業利益率也顯著高於去年同期。儘管受時間因素影響有所放緩，但這一成長主要體現在強勁的基礎業績上。強勁的有機淨收入和調整後攤薄每股收益的成長，促使我們上調了全年業績預期。

From a product standpoint, we continued to broaden our smoke-free portfolio and saw encouraging progress from new device and consumable offerings across multiple markets. We expect to benefit from further innovation through the course of 2021.

從產品角度來看，我們持續拓展無菸產品組合，並在多個市場推出的新型設備和耗材產品取得了令人鼓舞的進展。我們預計在2021年將受益於進一步的創新。

Turning to the headline numbers. Our Q1 net revenues grew by plus 2.9% on an organic basis. This was an excellent performance in the context of an essentially pre-COVID prior year comparison and incorporates better-than-expected HTU, IMS and shipment volumes, which drove plus 32% organic growth in RRP net revenue. We also saw some higher-than-expected pull-forward of shipments, predominantly cigarettes, in the EU Region ahead of the Easter period and in Russia ahead of the April 1 discount ban.

回顧一下主要數據。我們第一季的淨收入有機成長了2.9%。與疫情之前的去年同期相比，這表現非常出色，且HTU、IMS和出貨量均優於預期，推動了RRP淨收入有機成長32%。此外，在復活節假期前，歐盟地區以及4月1日折扣禁令實施前，我們觀察到一些出貨量（主要是香菸）提前，這部分提前量高於預期。

We saw a strong organic growth of plus 6.9% in our net revenue per unit driven by the increasing weight of IQOS in our sales mix and pricing on both combustible and RRPs. Combustible tobacco pricing was plus 2.7% of prior year combustible net revenues, reflecting solid pricing in many markets, partially offset by Indonesia. Excluding Indonesia, combustible pricing was over plus 4%.

我們的每單位淨收入實現了強勁的有機成長，成長了6.9%，這得益於IQOS在我們銷售組合中的佔比不斷提升，以及可燃菸草和建議零售價的雙雙上漲。可燃煙草的定價較去年同期可燃煙草淨收入增長了2.7%，反映出許多市場的定價穩健，但部分抵消了印尼市場的影響。除印尼市場外，可燃煙草的定價成長超過4%。

Our adjusted operating income margin increased by 590 basis points on an organic basis. This reflect the increasing weight and profitability of IQOS; the positive impact of pricing; productivity savings, including lower device cost, lower commercial spend due to the pandemic; a favorable comparison in Eastern Europe; and certain other timing factors.

我們的調整後營業利潤率有機成長了590個基點。這反映了IQOS的市場份額和盈利能力的提升；定價的正面影響；生產力的提升，包括設備成本的降低、疫情導致的商業支出減少；東歐市場的良好表現；以及其他一些時間因素。

Combined with a lower effective tax rate, our resulting adjusted diluted EPS of $1.57 represent, plus 21.5% organic growth, a very strong performance. We estimate that timing factors in the quarter, such as the earlier shipment mentioned and cost phasing, had a positive impact of around plus $0.08. Other onetime factors accounted for an estimated further plus $0.02 increase.

結合較低的有效稅率，我們最終的調整後稀釋每股收益為1.57美元，加上21.5%的有機成長率，業績表現非常強勁。我們估計，本季的時間因素，例如先前提到的出貨和成本分階段調整，帶來了約0.08美元的正向影響。其他一次性因素估計進一步帶來了0.02美元的正向影響。

This brings me now to guidance for 2021. While the speed and shape of the global recovery from the pandemic remains uncertain, the strong business result and underlying momentum of the first quarter, notably from our IQOS business, led us to raise our outlook. We continue to account for a range of outcomes in our outlook for organic growth in net revenue and EPS.

現在，我要談談我對2021年的展望。儘管全球從疫情中復甦的速度和形態仍不確定，但第一季強勁的業務業績和潛在成長勢頭，尤其是IQOS業務，促使我們上調了業績展望。在淨收入和每股盈餘的有機成長展望中，我們仍將一系列因素納入考量。

This range assumed that even in the event of renewed or prolonged restriction, we will not see a return to the depressed consumption level of Q2 2020. While we have not been affected thus far by the current global shortage of semiconductor, the guidance assumes a limited impact on the supply of electronic devices to consumer. This is a fluid situation, which we are monitoring closely. And where any constraint may arise, we intend to manage our inventories accordingly and prioritize device sales to adult smokers who are new to the category.

這個範圍假設，即使再次實施或延長限購措施，我們也不會看到消費水準回到2020年第二季的低迷狀態。雖然我們目前尚未受到當前全球半導體短缺的影響，但該指引假設對消費者電子設備供應的影響有限。這是一個不確定的形勢，我們正在密切關注。如果出現任何限制，我們打算相應地管理庫存，並優先向首次接觸該類別的成年吸煙者銷售設備。

Regarding Duty Free, a rebound in global travel is likely to lag the improvement of in-country mobility. Our guidance continue to assume no meaningful recovery in Duty Free this year. We now expect organic net revenue growth in the range of plus 5% to plus 7% versus plus 4% to plus 7% communicated previously and organic adjusted diluted EPS growth of plus 11% to plus 13% or plus 15% to plus 17% in reported terms. The strength of IQOS is the main driver for this revision. We now expect to deliver HTU shipment volume of between 95 billion and 100 billion units, representing the upper half of our previously targeted range for 2021.

關於免稅業務，全球旅遊業的反彈可能會落後於國內流動性的改善。我們的指引仍然假設今年免稅業務不會出現顯著復甦。我們目前預期有機淨收入成長率將在5%至7%之間，而先前公佈的預期為4%至7%，有機調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長率將在11%至13%之間，或15%至17%之間。 IQOS的強勁表現是此次調整的主要驅動力。我們目前預計，2021年HTU的出貨量將在950億到1000億個之間，達到我們先前設定的2021年目標區間的上半部。

Given the continued strong momentum across our market, the need to maintain inventory duration and preparation for the rollout of IQOS ILUMA that uses different consumable, we expect our full year shipment to be slightly ahead of our IMS volumes. We also raised our assumption for organic adjusted OI margin expansion to around plus 200 basis point. This includes the expectation of greater investment in the second half as our innovation and commercial activities step up.

鑑於我們市場持續強勁的成長勢頭、維持庫存週轉率的必要性以及為推出使用不同耗材的IQOS ILUMA做準備，我們預計全年出貨量將略高於IMS的出貨量。我們也調高了有機調整後OI利潤率成長預期至約正200個基點。這包括隨著我們創新和商業活動的推進，預計下半年將增加投資。

As detailed in this morning's press release, our other main assumptions remain unchanged. This projected organic EPS growth, including an estimated favorable currency impact of approximately plus $0.20 at prevailing rates versus plus $0.25 assumed previously, translate into a raised adjusted diluted EPS range of $5.95 to $6.05. This guidance does not include any impact of share repurchases. However, we remain on track to resume repurchases in the second half of the year, subject to Board approval.

正如今天上午的新聞稿中所述，我們的其他主要假設保持不變。本預測的有機每股收益成長，包括以現行匯率計算的約0.20美元的有利匯率影響（先前假設為0.25美元），將調整後稀釋每股盈餘區間上調至5.95美元至6.05美元。本指引不包含任何股票回購的影響。不過，我們仍有望在下半年恢復股票回購，但需經董事會批准。

Looking forward to the second quarter, we now expect adjusted diluted EPS of $1.50 to $1.55, reflecting strong top line growth against a weak prior year comparison, continued margin improvement and the partial reversal of certain Q1 timing benefit. For the second half, assuming that many of our key market will have largely emerged from COVID restriction, we expect continued robust top line growth. This include the contribution of higher expected device shipment, which will result in less gross margin expansion compared to the first half.

展望第二季度，我們目前預計調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.50 美元至 1.55 美元，這反映了強勁的營收成長（相比去年同期的疲軟）、持續的利潤率改善以及部分抵消了第一季度某些時間效益的影響。對於下半年，假設我們的許多關鍵市場已基本擺脫新冠疫情封鎖，我們預計營收將繼續保持強勁成長。這包括預期設備出貨量增加的貢獻，這將導致毛利率增幅低於上半年。

New product launches, investments in distribution and the phasing of productivities will also play a role. We will also step up our commercial investment in the future growth of RRP through portfolio and geographic expansion, including product launches such as IQOS ILUMA. We anticipate around plus $300 million to plus $400 million of incremental commercial investment compared to the first half and consequently expect our organic OI margin expansion to be lower in H2, but overall to deliver a strong expansion of around plus 200 basis point for the year.

新產品發布、分銷投資以及生產力分階段提升也將發揮重要作用。我們也將透過產品組合和地理擴張，增加對零售價未來成長的商業投資，包括推出IQOS ILUMA等產品。我們預計，與上半年相比，增量商業投資將增加約3億至4億美元，因此預計下半年有機營業利潤率增幅將有所下降，但全年整體仍將強勁增長約200個基點。

Before discussing our result in more depth, I want to highlight a few of the positive regulatory development in the quarter. Recognition of the harm-reduction potential of smoke-free product continues to gain traction.

在深入討論我們的業績之前，我想先強調本季一些積極的監管進展。無菸產品減害潛力的認可度持續提升。

Examples so far this year include the reversal of a long-standing import ban on heated tobacco product in Uruguay and the integration of the harm-reduction principle in Lithuania's tobacco control agenda. We also note the recent report from an all-party parliamentary group of MPs in the U.K. calling for the WHO to return to the founding principle of the FCTC, which includes harm reduction rather than the current prohibition stance.

今年迄今為止的例子包括：烏拉圭撤銷了長期以來對加熱菸草產品的進口禁令，以及立陶宛將減害原則納入其菸草控制議程。我們也注意到，英國議會一個由跨黨派議員組成的小組最近發布了一份報告，呼籲世界衛生組織回歸《菸草控制框架公約》的創始原則，即減害原則，而非目前的禁令立場。

In New Zealand, we are reviewing the content and detail of the consultation paper published last week. The policy recognizes the role of innovative product in harm reduction while at the same time ensuring strict control to prevent youth access.

在新西蘭，我們正在審查上週發布的諮詢文件的內容和細節。該政策承認創新產品在減少危害方面的作用，同時確保嚴格控制，並防止青少年接觸。

In the EU, we continue to be hopeful that the revision of the tobacco excise directive will lead to greater harmonization in the effort to smoke-free product, taking into account the relevant good practices and experience gained by member states in this area. Here and around the world, we continue to support differentiated regulatory and fiscal framework based on the relative risk to health. While there will, on occasion, be actions or proposals that do not incorporate harm-reduction objectives, we believe that fact and science will guide policy over time, and we continue to see positive changes in many geographies.

在歐盟，我們仍然希望菸草消費稅指令的修訂能夠促進無菸產​​品工作的進一步協調，並充分考慮成員國在該領域的相關良好實踐和經驗。在歐盟及世界各地，我們將繼續支持基於相對健康風險的差異化監管和財政框架。雖然偶爾會有一些行動或提案未納入減害目標，但我們相信，隨著時間的推移，事實和科學將指導政策，而且我們在許多地區持續看到積極的變化。

Well, turning back now to our results. Q1 shipment volumes declined by 3.7% on a total PMI basis. This reflects continued strong growth from HTUs of plus 30% to reach 21.7 billion units driven by the EU Region, Japan, Russia, Ukraine and an encouraging start from recently launched market in the Middle East. HTU shipment and IMS volumes were broadly in line for the quarter.

現在回到我們的業績。第一季出貨量以PMI總出貨量計算下降了3.7%。這反映了HTU（家用行動終端）持續強勁成長，年成長30%，達到217億台，主要得益於歐盟地區、日本、俄羅斯、烏克蘭以及近期開拓的中東市場的良好開局。本季HTU出貨量和IMS出貨量基本持平。

While pandemic-related restriction persisted around the world, total industry volume decline of 0.7% were relatively benign, incorporating over plus 25% growth in the heated tobacco category where we continue to have a share of over 80%.

儘管全球範圍內與疫情相關的限制措施持續存在，但整個行業銷量下降 0.7%，降幅相對較小，其中加熱煙草類別的銷量增長超過 25%，而我們在該類別中的份額仍超過 80%。

Though less severe than in Q4 2020, our cigarette volume decline reflects specific share headwind in certain market, which I'll come back to. We expect better combustible share and volume trends in both the second quarter and second half of the year.

儘管與2020年第四季相比，捲菸銷量的下降幅度有所減緩，但這反映了特定市場的特定份額逆風，我稍後會詳細闡述這一點。我們預計第二季和下半年可燃香菸的市佔率和銷售趨勢都將有所改善。

The strong performance from IQOS led to heated tobacco units comprising 13% of our total shipment volume in Q1 as compared to 9.6% in the prior year quarter, 11% in the year of 2020, 8% in 2019 and 5% in 2018. We continue to expect this proportion to grow over time as the positive momentum on IQOS continues, providing a powerful driver of revenue and margin growth.

IQOS 的強勁表​​現使得加熱不燃燒菸草產品占我們第一季總出貨量的 13%，而去年同期為 9.6%，2020 年為 11%，2019 年為 8%，2018 年為 5%。隨著 IQOS 持續保持積極勢頭，我們預計這一比例將隨著時間的推移而增長，從而為收入和利潤增長提供強大的動力。

Our sales mix is changing rapidly, putting us on track to achieve our aim of becoming a majority smoke-free company by 2025. Smoke-free product made up 28% of our total net revenue in the quarter compared to 21.7% in Q1 2020. IQOS devices accounted for approximately 6% of the $2.1 billion of RRP net revenue, reflecting longer replacement time for existing users due to improving battery lives and reliability and lower device price in certain market as we are preparing for IQOS ILUMA.

我們的銷售結構正在迅速變化，這讓我們有望實現到 2025 年成為主要無菸公司的目標。無菸產品佔本季總淨收入的 28%，而 2020 年第一季這一比例為 21.7%。 IQOS 設備約佔 21 億美元 RRP 淨收入的 6%，這反映出由於電池壽命和可靠性的提高以及某些市場的設備價格降低，現有用戶的更換時間更長，因為我們正在為 IQOS ILUMA 做準備。

The plus 2.9% organic growth in Q1 net revenue and shipment volume decline of 3.7% reflect the twin engine driving our top line. First is pricing on combustible and, in certain market, on HTU net of the lower device pricing I just mentioned. Second, the increasing mix of HTUs in our business at higher net revenue per unit continue to deliver substantial growth. And as explained at Investor Day, this is an increasingly powerful driver as our transformation accelerates.

第一季淨營收有機成長2.9%，出貨量下降3.7%，反映了推動我們營收成長的雙引擎效應。首先，是可燃物的價格，以及（在某些市場）扣除我剛才提到的設備價格下調後的HTU淨營收。其次，我們業務中HTU的比重不斷增加，單位淨營收也隨之增加，這持續帶來顯著的成長。正如我們在投資者日所解釋的那樣，隨著我們轉型的加速，這將成為日益強大的驅動力。

Let me now go into the driver of our first quarter margin expansion, starting with gross margin, which expanded by 390 basis points on an organic basis. This is driven by multiple levers, as shown in green on this slide, including the mix effect of HTU within IQOS impact. In particular, our significant efforts on manufacturing and supply chain efficiency are bearing fruits, more than offsetting the effect of combustible volume declines with around $150 million of gross productivity savings delivered in Q1. While somewhat front-loaded in the context of 2021, this represent a strong start on the journey towards our target of $1 billion over 2021-2023. As part of these savings, our gross profit increase was boosted by better absorption of manufacturing costs given the high level of production in the quarter and lower device costs with a combined impact of around plus $60 million.

現在，讓我來談談我們第一季利潤率成長的驅動因素，首先是毛利率，毛利率有機成長了390個基點。這由多個槓桿推動，如本投影片中的綠色部分所示，包括加熱菸草產品 (HTU) 對IQOS的影響。特別是，我們在製造和供應鏈效率方面所做的巨大努力正在取得成果，這不僅抵消了可燃物銷售下降的影響，第一季實現了約1.5億美元的總生產率節約。雖然在2021年，這多少有些前期投入，但這對於我們實現2021-2023年10億美元的目標來說，是一個好的開始。作為這些節約的一部分，由於本季產量高，製造成本吸收得更好，加上設備成本下降，也推動了我們的毛利成長，總成本下降約6000萬美元。

Gross margin expansion was also accompanied by strong SG&A efficiencies with our adjusted marketing, administration and research costs 200 basis point lower as a percentage of net revenue on an organic basis. This reflect the ongoing digitalization and simplification of our business processes, including our IQOS commercial engine and more efficient ways of working. We delivered around $60 million towards our '21-'23 target of $1 billion in gross SG&A savings before inflation and reinvestment. The pandemic also impacted SG&A costs in the quarter through the latter timing of certain project and reduced commercial and overhead costs due to ongoing restriction. These latter factors accounted for around $100 million of the organic improvement.

毛利率的成長也伴隨著強勁的銷售、行政及一般費用 (SG&A) 效率的提升，我們調整後的行銷、行政和研發成本佔淨收入的有機百分比下降了200個基點。這反映了我們業務流程的持續數位化和簡化，包括IQOS商用引擎和更有效率的工作方式。我們已實現約6000萬美元，距離21-23年實現10億美元（扣除通貨膨脹和再投資）銷售、行政及一般費用 (SG&A) 總節省的目標僅一步之遙。疫情也影響了本季的銷售、行政及一般費用 (SG&A)，因為某些項目推遲了交付時間，以及持續的限制措施降低了商業成本和間接成本。這些因素促成了約1億美元的有機成長。

Focusing now on combustible. We continue to hold the leading international portfolio by market share and by brand strength, as covered at Investor Day. This gives us a formidable platform to accelerate the growth of IQOS via our commercial infrastructure, industry expertise and ability to communicate with adult smokers, where permitted. It is, therefore, imperative to maintain our leadership through selective investment as we also drive returns through pricing and efficiency.

現在專注於可燃性電子煙。正如投資者日所述，我們繼續保持市場份額和品牌實力領先的國際投資組合。這為我們提供了一個強大的平台，讓我們能夠利用我們的商業基礎設施、行業專業知識以及在條件允許的情況下與成年吸煙者溝通的能力來加速IQOS的增長。因此，我們必須透過選擇性投資來保持領先地位，同時我們也透過定價和效率來提高回報。

Our cigarette share underperformance in Q1 can be attributed to the combination of several factors. This include the COVID impact on social occasions where Marlboro overindexes; border closures and reduced travel; and instances of downtrading and competition in the mid- and low-price segment in certain markets, such as the Philippine and part of the EU Region.

我們第一季捲菸市佔率表現不佳，可歸因於多種因素。這些因素包括新冠疫情對萬寶路高發的社交場合的影響；邊境關閉和出行減少；以及某些市場（例如菲律賓和部分歐盟地區）中低價位市場消費下降和競爭加劇的情況。

This performance does not reflect our objective to maintain our share of cigarette, net of cannibalization. We expect a strong sequential cigarette share recovery through the remainder of the year, supported by portfolio initiative and the enduring strength of Marlboro, especially as pandemic restriction ease. Accordingly, we target cigarette share to be about stable on a year-over-year basis for the next 9 months despite the impact of cannibalization. Share gains from HTUs will come on top of this.

此業績並未反映我們維持捲菸市場佔有率（扣除產品拆解）的目標。我們預計，在產品組合調整和萬寶路持久強勁的支撐下，尤其是在疫情限制措施放鬆的背景下，今年剩餘時間捲菸市場份額將強勁環比回升。因此，儘管有產品拆解的影響，我們仍將捲菸市場佔有率在未來9個月內保持年比基本穩定。此外，HTU的市佔率成長也將在此基礎上進一步提升。

I will now turn to the South and Southeast Asia region. After a difficult 2020, notably in Indonesia, headwinds are now moderating. In Indonesia, volume trends are improving with double-digit growth in hand-rolled kreteks where we are the market leader supporting stable PMI share in the Tier 1 segment. Indeed, with industry volume recovering, we are targeting volume growth for our business here in 2021.

現在，我將談談南亞和東南亞地區。在經歷了艱難的2020年（尤其是在印尼）之後，逆風正在減弱。在印度尼西亞，手捲丁香菸的銷售趨勢正在改善，我們在該市場的領先地位支撐了一級市場PMI的穩定份額。事實上，隨著行業銷售的復甦，我們的目標是在2021年實現該地區業務的銷售成長。

Pricing remain the main headwind in Indonesia. New excise duty rates came into force on Feb 1. And while all major players have taken some pricing, progress nonetheless remains low. Despite the negative consequences for government revenue, there has not yet been a significant move to level the playing field between the Tier 1 and below Tier 1 segment, which continues to grow. We remain hopeful that the government will address this issue over time.

定價仍然是印尼面臨的主要挑戰。新的消費稅稅率已於2月1日生效。儘管所有主要參與者都已採取了一些定價措施，但進展仍然緩慢。儘管對政府收入產生了負面影響，但尚未採取重大措施來平衡一級和一級以下細分市場之間的競爭環境，而一級以下細分市場仍在持續成長。我們仍然希望政府能夠逐步解決這個問題。

The Philippines has performed well in recent years. For this quarter, further industry pricing in H2 2020, a slow economic recovery and pandemic-linked restriction gave rise to a double-digit market decline. Our share loss reflect downtrading from the mid- to low-price segment with premium-priced Marlboro, which make up over 2/3 of our volume growing share.

菲律賓近年來表現良好。本季度，2020年下半年產業價格進一步下跌、經濟復甦緩慢、疫情相關的限制措施導致市場出現兩位數下滑。我們的份額下降反映了消費者從中低價位市場向低價位市場的轉變，其中高價位的萬寶路佔據了我們銷售成長份額的三分之二以上。

Notwithstanding these challenges, we have plans to address the share decline and are targeting close to stable organic net revenue in 2021 despite the total market weakness. I'm also pleased to say that IQOS is off to an encouraging start in Metro Manila with an exit share of almost 1% for HEETS after full launch in Q3 2020. Overall, this region delivered strong growth pre-COVID. While it may not be a meaningful growth driver in 2021, we expect far less of a drag on group results compared to 2020. We target regional organic net revenue to be at least stable over the next 9 months.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍計劃應對份額下滑，並力爭在2021年實現接近穩定的有機淨收入，儘管整體市場疲軟。我還很高興地宣布，IQOS在馬尼拉大都會地區取得了令人鼓舞的開局，HEETS在2020年第三季度全面上市後，其退出份額接近1%。總體而言，該地區在新冠疫情之前實現了強勁成長。雖然這在2021年可能不會成為重要的成長動力，但我們預計其對集團業績的拖累將遠小於2020年。我們的目標是，在未來9個月內，該區域有機淨收入至少保持穩定。

Moving now to IQOS performance. We estimate there were 19.1 million IQOS user as of March 31. This represents the addition of around 1.5 million adult users since December, building on the step-up seen in the second half of 2020. Our accelerated pivot to digital and remote engagement during the pandemic, combined with strong momentum for the IQOS brand, is paying off.

現在來看看IQOS的表現。截至3月31日，我們估計IQOS用戶數已達1,910萬人。這意味著自去年12月以來，成年用戶數量增加了約150萬，這得益於2020年下半年的成長。疫情期間，我們加速數位化和遠端互動轉型，加之IQOS品牌的強勁發展勢頭，這些舉措正在取得成效。

We further estimate that 73% of this total or 14 million adult smokers have switched to IQOS and stopped smoking, with the balance in various stages of conversion. Strong conversion rates notably reflect the increased prevalence of IQOS 3 DUO, which offers a superior user experience to previous device version. As we mentioned at Investor Day, we seek to achieve even higher conversion rate over time with the introduction of innovation such as IQOS ILUMA.

我們進一步估計，在這1400萬成年吸菸者中，有73%（即1400萬）已經改用IQOS並戒菸，其餘人則處於不同的轉換階段。強勁的轉換率顯著反映了IQOS 3 DUO的普及率上升，它提供了比上一代設備更卓越的用戶體驗。正如我們在投資者日上提到的，我們致力於透過推出IQOS ILUMA等創新產品，逐步實現更高的轉換率。

This user growth again reflects widespread momentum across all key IQOS geographies, including the EU Region, Japan and Russia. It also reflect the enrichment of our offer and the segmentation of the category with new product and more price points, both above and below our initial HTU offering.

使用者成長再次反映了IQOS在所有主要地區（包括歐盟地區、日本和俄羅斯）的普遍成長勢頭。這也反映了我們產品線的豐富和品類的細分，包括新產品和更多價位，既有高於也有低於我們最初的HTU產品。

In the EU Region, first quarter share for HEETS reached a record 5.7% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume. Adjusted for estimated trade inventory movement, this reflect 46% year-over-year IMS growth and around 10% sequential IMS growth accounting for fewer selling days in the period. I would also remind you of the sequential quarterly share dynamic, which can be distorted by the seasonality of the combustible market in addition to pandemic-related fluctuations, such as border closure and other social restriction.

在歐盟地區，第一季HEETS的市佔率達到了創紀錄的5.7%，佔捲菸和HTU產業總銷量的比重。根據預估的貿易庫存變動進行調整後，這反映了IMS年增46%，環比增長約10%，這主要是由於期內銷售天數減少。我還想提醒大家注意季度環比份額的動態，除了疫情相關的波動（例如邊境關閉和其他社會限制措施）外，可燃物市場的季節性變化也可能會對其造成扭曲。

With the region likely to reopen somewhat in Q2 and increase the total market, we expect further strong underlying HTU growth, but for sure to be broadly in line with Q1. This excellent performance includes strong growth in Italy, surpassing 10% share, with the large majority of user acquisition coming organically as the increasing awareness and prominence of the product build its own momentum.

由於該地區可能在第二季有所恢復，並擴大整體市場規模，我們預計HTU基礎業務將進一步強勁成長，但成長速度肯定與第一季基本持平。這一出色表現包括義大利市場的強勁成長，市佔率超過10%，其中大部分用戶的成長源自於產品知名度和影響力的提升，為其自身發展提供了動力。

Germany and Poland were also strong contributors. We added a further 700,000 EU Region IQOS user in the quarter to reach 5.9 million, a continuation of recent strong performance.

德國和波蘭也是強大的貢獻者。本季，歐盟地區新增70萬IQOS用戶，用戶總數達590萬，延續了近期的強勁表現。

We continue to see phenomenal progress in key cities across the EU Region with a number of example on this slide. HTU share in Rome is now approaching 20%; Warsaw and Lisbon reached 15%; Munich, 8%; and London, 5%. While a smaller city, the progress in Vilnius at 36% share is also a global standout. As covered at Investor Day, key cities are a good indicator of national share growth potential. And I would also refer you to the appendix where we show shares for key EU market and global key cities.

我們持續見證歐盟地區各大城市的顯著進步，本投影片中列舉了一些例子。羅馬的HTU份額現已接近20%；華沙和里斯本達到15%；慕尼黑達8%；倫敦達5%。維爾紐斯雖然規模較小，但其36%的份額成長也在全球範圍內引人注目。如投資者日所述，主要城市是衡量國家份額成長潛力的良好指標。此外，我還建議您參閱附錄，其中展示了歐盟主要市場和全球主要城市的份額。

Strong performance continued in Russia with our HTU share up by 1.2 points to reach a record 7.7%. Adjusted for estimated trade inventory movement, this reflect plus 35% year-over-year IMS growth and around plus 8%, 10% sequentially once estimated consumer pantry-loading effects are factored in.

在俄羅斯市場，我們的HTU市佔率持續保持強勁成長，成長了1.2個百分點，達到創紀錄的7.7%。根據預估的貿易庫存變動進行調整後，這反映了IMS同比增長35%，如果計入預估的消費者食品儲藏量影響，則環比增長約8%或10%。

We continue to see sequential share growth for both our HEETS and Fiit lineup with good traction for the regular HEETS and super-premium HEETS Creations variants. Moreover, lil SOLID and Fiit consumable continue to supplement user acquisition. In both Russia and Ukraine, the majority of consumer purchasing a lil device are smokers entering the smoke-free category for the first time, with high level of conversion in line with IQOS. This bodes well for our ability to reach adult smoker in the medium- and below-price segment for whom purchasing power may be a barrier.

我們的HEETS和Fiit系列的市佔率持續成長，常規款HEETS和超高階款HEETS Creations都表現不佳。此外，lil SOLID和Fiit耗材持續補充用戶成長。在俄羅斯和烏克蘭，購買lil產品的消費者首次接觸到無菸產品的菸民，轉換率與IQOS相當。這預示著我們能夠觸達中低價位市場的成年菸民，而對他們來說，購買力可能是一個障礙。

Margins on mainstream-priced HTUs, such as Fiit, remain attractive compared to cigarettes sold at the same price. And while the volume of Fiit remains small compared to our total HTU volume in this market given our large IQOS user base, we expect lil to grow further in 2021. With this success in Russia and Ukraine, we plan to offer lil SOLID in additional market later this year.

與同價位的香菸相比，主流價位的加熱不燃燒產品（例如Fiit）的利潤率仍然頗具吸引力。儘管考慮到我們龐大的IQOS用戶群，Fiit的銷量與我們在該市場的加熱不燃燒產品總銷量相比仍然較小，但我們預計lil在2021年將進一步增長。鑑於在俄羅斯和烏克蘭的成功，我們計劃在今年稍後在其他市場推出lil SOLID。

In Japan, on a total tobacco basis, including cigarillos and adjusted for trade inventory movement, the share for our HTU brand increased by 3 points versus the prior year quarter and by 0.7 points sequentially to 20.8%. Both HEETS and Marlboro HeatSticks grew market share following the October price increase, highlighting the strength of our price-tiered portfolio.

在日本，以包括小雪茄在內的菸草總銷量計算，並根據貿易庫存變動進行調整後，我們HTU品牌的市佔率較上年同期成長3個百分點，較上一季成長0.7個百分點，達到20.8%。 HEETS和萬寶路加熱棒在10月漲價後市佔率均有所成長，凸顯了我們價格階梯式產品組合的強勁表現。

We expect to see further HTU volume growth in Japan over the remainder of the year, underpinned by ongoing user acquisition. For the second quarter, in particular, we expect robust sequential IMS growth. We also expect a recovery in the total tobacco market as the elasticity effect of the substantial October price increase fade, including on consumer pantry loading. As such, while year-over-year share growth is still likely to be strong, Q2 share may not reflect this underlying sequential growth performance and maybe broadly stable versus Q1 on an adjusted basis, including cigarillos.

我們預計，受持續用戶成長的支撐，日本的HTU銷售在今年剩餘時間將進一步成長。尤其在第二季度，我們預計IMS銷量將實現強勁的環比成長。我們也預計，隨著10月價格大幅上漲帶來的彈性效應逐漸消退，包括對消費者食品儲藏量的影響，整個菸草市場將出現復甦。因此，儘管同比份額增長可能仍將保持強勁，但第二季度的份額可能無法反映出這一潛在的環比增長表現，調整後的數據可能與第一季（包括小雪茄）基本持平。

In Q1, the overall heated tobacco category made up over 28% of the adjusted total Japanese tobacco market, with IQOS maintaining a high share of segment. IQOS HTUs also reached an offtake share of 26.1% in Tokyo after surpassing the 25% milestone in December.

第一季度，加熱不燃燒菸草產品佔日本菸草市場總銷量的28%以上，其中IQOS佔了較高的市場份額。 IQOS加熱不燃燒菸草在東京市場的銷售份額也達到了26.1%，去年12月突破了25%的里程碑。

In addition to a strong growth in existing market, the geographic expansion of our smoke-free product continues. This allows us to provide access to better alternative to an even increasing amount of adult smoker. And as communicated at Investor Day, we aim to be in 100 market by 2025. After launching in 12 new market with IQOS in 2020, we added Aruba in the first quarter and launched our new e-vapor product, IQOS VEEV, in Finland, which takes the total number of market where PMI smoke-free products are available for sale to 66, of which over half are outside the OECD.

除了現有市場的強勁成長外，我們無菸產品的地理擴張仍在持續。這使我們能夠為日益增多的成年吸煙者提供更好的替代品。正如投資者日所宣布的，我們的目標是到2025年進入100個市場。繼2020年在12個新市場推出IQOS之後，我們在第一季又拓展了阿魯巴市場，並在芬蘭推出了我們的新款電子煙產品IQOS VEEV。這使得PMI無菸產品銷售的市場總數達到66個，其中超過一半位於經合組織（OECD）以外的國家。

We are continuing to commercialize IQOS VEEV with Q1 launches in Italy and, as I just mentioned, Finland. This follows the initial launch market New Zealand and the Czech Republic in H2 2020.

我們將繼續推進IQOS VEEV的商業化，並將於第一季在義大利以及我剛才提到的芬蘭推出。此前，我們已於2020年下半年在新西蘭和捷克共和國率先推出IQOS VEEV。

One of our key priorities is guarding against youth access for all our product, and we are targeting for all our electronic smoke-free devices to be equipped with age verification technology by 2023. We will be testing this technology with IQOS VEEV in select market this year.

我們的首要任務之一是防止青少年接觸我們所有的產品，我們的目標是到 2023 年，我們所有的電子無菸設備都配備年齡驗證技術。今年，我們將在特定市場使用 IQOS VEEV 測試這項技術。

IQOS VEEV is a premium product providing a superior experience. And as we explained previously, the commercial infrastructure of IQOS allows us to deploy efficiently and at scale through a bespoke route-to-market approach.

IQOS VEEV 是一款提供卓越體驗的高階產品。正如我們之前所解釋的，IQOS 的商業基礎設施使我們能夠透過客製化的市場准入方式高效、大規模地部署。

Our other market major innovation for 2021 is the launch of IQOS ILUMA, the next generation of IQOS, as announced at Investor Day. Building on the success of IQOS 3 DUO, we believe this simple and intuitive device will support easier switching and higher conversion for legal-age smokers using Smartcore internal induction-heating technology. We continue to plan for the launch of ILUMA in the second half of the year.

我們在2021年的另一項重大市場創新是推出下一代IQOS產品——IQOS ILUMA，正如投資者日上所宣布的那樣。基於IQOS 3 DUO的成功，我們相信這款簡潔直覺的裝置將採用Smartcore內部感應加熱技術，為法定年齡吸菸者提供更便利的切換體驗，並提高轉換率。我們將繼續計劃在下半年推出ILUMA。

As we roll out both IQOS VEEV and IQOS ILUMA, we carefully plan our manufacturing and supply chain activities to manage expected demand and external factors, such as the current tightness of global semiconductor supply that I mentioned previously. The ongoing success of IQOS 3 DUO more than 2 years after launch demonstrate that significant innovation can have a lasting positive impact on growth. And both our recently announced 2023 HTU shipping volume target and the upward revision of our HTU target for this year reflect this confidence.

在推出 IQOS VEEV 和 IQOS ILUMA 的同時，我們精心規劃了生產和供應鏈活動，以應對預期需求和外部因素，例如我之前提到的當前全球半導體供應緊張的局面。 IQOS 3 DUO 在上市兩年多後持續取得成功，證明了重大創新能夠對成長產生持久的正面影響。我們最近宣布的 2023 年 HTU 出貨量目標以及今年 HTU 目標的上調都體現了這種信心。

Our transformation is the bedrock for both business and sustainability performance. We do not have separate strategies. Phasing out cigarettes by replacing them with better alternatives, such as IQOS, drives our growth and addresses our biggest impact on society.

我們的轉型是業務和永續發展績效的基石。我們沒有單獨的戰略。逐步淘汰香煙，用更好的替代品（例如IQOS）取代香煙，這推動了我們的成長，並解決了我們對社會的最大影響。

Our unique commitment to phasing out cigarette is underlined by the new transformation target announced at Investor Day, which are aligned with the 27 business transformation metric provided for stakeholder to measure and verify the pace and scale of our progress. This includes our ambition to become a majority smoke-free company by 2025, our aim to commercialize smoke-free product in 100 market and to generate at least $1 billion in net revenue from beyond nicotine product as we move into adjacent business areas with a net positive impact on society.

我們在投資者日宣布的新轉型目標，突顯了我們逐步淘汰香菸的獨特承諾。此目標與為利害關係人提供的27項業務轉型指標一致，用於衡量和驗證我們進展的速度和規模。這包括我們在2025年成為主要業務為無菸公司的雄心壯志，在100個市場實現無菸產品商業化的目標，以及隨著我們進軍對社會產生淨積極影響的鄰近業務領域，從尼古丁產品以外的領域創造至少10億美元的淨收入。

Our best-in-class performance on ESG allows us to further our leadership in sustainability. I am proud to see increasing external recognition, for example, on our efforts to develop a fully sustainable supply chain and our commitment to address gender inequality. Further, we recently updated our zero deforestation manifesto, strengthening our ambition undertaking to conserving forests across our entire value chain.

我們在ESG方面卓越的表現，進一步鞏固了我們在永續發展領域的領導地位。我非常自豪地看到，越來越多的外部認可，例如，我們為打造完全永續的供應鏈所做的努力，以及我們致力於解決性別不平等問題的承諾。此外，我們最近更新了“零毀林宣言”，強化了我們在整個價值鏈中保護森林的宏偉承諾。

We remain strongly committed to providing the highest level of disclosure on the key ESG and product impact areas of our company via integrated reporting, and we'll release our 2020 disclosure on May 18. We recognize that ESG analysis can provide valuable insight about factors with a significant potential impact on financial performance and, thus, better informed investment decision.

我們仍然堅定地致力於透過綜合報告對公司的關鍵 ESG 和產品影響領域提供最高層級的揭露，並將於 5 月 18 日發布 2020 年的揭露。我們認識到 ESG 分析可以提供有關對財務績效具有重大潛在影響的因素的寶貴見解，從而做出更明智的投資決策。

To further maximize the value of investor engagement and aid understanding of the significant positive impact PMI's transformation can have on society, we plan to hold a sustainability webcast in early June, building on our recent Investor Day. Please do mark your calendars.

為了進一步提升投資人參與的價值，並幫助人們了解菲莫國際的轉型將對社會產生的重大正面影響，我們計劃在近期投資者日活動的基礎上，於6月初舉辦一場永續發展網路直播。敬請留意。

To conclude, we've had a strong start to the year and look forward with confidence despite the continued uncertainty on the operating environment due to COVID. This is the same concluding slide I presented at Investor Day in February as I believe our start to 2021 demonstrates all the key elements of our longer-term trajectory. Through IQOS, we are building a business with multiple levers to deliver superior and sustainable growth over the coming years through improved volume dynamics, excellent top line growth, strong margin expansion and fast-growing earnings. Moreover, while every adult smoker who switches to IQOS is good for our business, it is also a clear positive for our impact on society and public health.

總而言之，儘管新冠疫情為營運環境帶來持續的不確定性，但我們今年開局強勁，並充滿信心地展望未來。這張投影片與我在二月投資者日上展示的總結性投影片相同，因為我相信，我們2021年的開局展現了我們長期發展軌蹟的所有關鍵要素。透過IQOS，我們正在建立一個擁有多重槓桿的業務，以在未來幾年透過改善的銷售動態、卓越的營收成長、強勁的利潤率擴張和快速成長的盈利，實現卓越且可持續的成長。此外，每位成年吸菸者改用IQOS不僅對我們的業務有益，而且對我們對社會和公共健康的影響也具有明顯的正面意義。

We manage our transformation with care and responsibility for our stakeholders, guided by our sustainability materiality framework to maximize our positive impact across our Tier 1 ESG and product areas. This is essential for the sustainability of our business and for delivering superior returns for shareholder over the long term. The increase in our organic growth outlook for 2021 is another step on this journey, also putting us nicely on track to achieve our 2023 financial and HTU shipment targets.

我們以對利害關係人的謹慎和責任感來管理我們的轉型，並以永續發展實質框架為指導，最大限度地發揮我們在一級環境、社會和治理 (ESG) 和產品領域的正面影響。這對於我們業務的可持續性以及為股東創造長期卓越回報至關重要。我們對 2021 年有機成長前景的提升是這一征程的又一重要進展，也使我們有望順利實現 2023 年的財務和 HTU 出貨量目標。

Thank you. I am now more than happy to answer your questions.

謝謝。我現在非常樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Vivien Azer of Cowen.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

So given some of the headlines coming out of the U.S. yesterday, it might be helpful, please, for my first question, if you could just level set on IQOS' designation in your international markets in terms of the type of tobacco products from a tax perspective.

因此，考慮到昨天美國傳出的一些頭條新聞，對於我的第一個問題，如果您能從稅收角度就煙草產品類型而言，對貴國國際市場上的 IQOS 的指定進行統一，這可能會有所幫助。

So I guess, Vivien, if I understand what your question is, how is our heat-not-burn offer and product classified versus combustible cigarette in our non-U.S. geographies, correct?

所以我想，薇薇安，如果我理解你的問題的話，那麼在美國以外的地區，我們的加熱不燃燒產品與可燃香煙相比是如何分類的，對嗎？

That's correct. Yes, please.

沒錯。是的，請講。

Right. So I'm not sure that I'm going to be able to give one general answer because the classification can be different from one country to the other. I would say, today, probably the fact that the excise duty applied to our IQOS product is differentiated in the vast majority of the market show that the treatment is differentiated. So the product is addressed already in a distinct manner on that particular element, recognizing that it's a different product with a different feature than the combustible cigarette.

是的。我不確定能否給出一個通用的答案，因為不同國家的分類可能有所不同。我想說，目前，我們IQOS產品在絕大多數市場上的消費稅有差異，這可能顯示了產品處理方式的差異化。因此，該產品在這一特定要素上已經以獨特的方式處理，並認識到它是一種與可燃香菸不同的產品，具有不同的特性。

So we are, of course, going to see some situation that can be different from one market to the other. We are certainly welcoming a regulation that will further clarify the fact that this heat-not-burn product are clearly different and a better alternative to combustible in the future. And as I think I mentioned, we see the regulation progressing nicely country after country. To take that into account, I've been taking a few example during my previous speech.

因此，我們當然會看到不同市場的情況有所不同。我們當然歡迎推出一項法規，進一步明確加熱不燃燒產品與可燃產品截然不同，並且在未來會成為可燃產品的更好替代品。正如我之前提到的，我們看到各國的法規正在順利進行中。為了考慮到這一點，我在之前的演講中舉了幾個例子。

And we expect that to continue. So we expect more and more government regulator to further clarify distinction between heat-not-burn and other reduced-risk product and combustible cigarette and come as well with different regulation. And as you know, we are calling for a differentiated approach on 2 items certainly on the way we can communicate on this better alternative and better product than the combustible cigarette and also, of course, on taxation to make sure that we have an incentive to push the smokers to this better alternative for their health.

我們預計這種情況會持續下去。因此，我們期待越來越多的政府監管機構進一步明確加熱不燃燒產品、其他低風險產品和可燃香菸之間的區別，並制定不同的監管措施。如你所知，我們呼籲在兩個方面採取差異化的做法，首先是就這種比可燃香煙更好的替代品和更好的產品進行宣傳的方式，其次是徵稅，以確保我們有動力推動吸煙者選擇這種更有益於健康的替代品。

That's helpful. And then my follow-up, if you could just provide your assessment of the risk of other countries potentially implementing a nicotine cap on combustible cigarettes.

這很有幫助。接下來，我想問一下，您能否評估一下其他國家可能對可燃香菸實施尼古丁限制的風險。

Well, I think that is something that, as you rightly said, again, is not implemented anywhere today. And I think it's an idea that certainly would have to be investigated in all its dimension. I think that, that could have a number of impact in term of illicit trade, in term of people smoking actually more combustible product to get to the same kind of nicotine dose and, of course, therefore, with negative impact.

嗯，正如你所說，我認為目前還沒有任何地方實施這一點。我認為這個想法肯定需要全方位地進行研究。我認為這會對非法交易產生諸多影響，因為人們實際上會吸食更多易燃產品來獲得相同的尼古丁劑量，因此當然會產生負面影響。

So I think at that stage, frankly, it's too early to say whether this is something that could have the right intent. In any case, that would have to be coupled with very strong awareness, availability of better alternative and certainly starting with heat-not-burn if we were to work. And that should be perceived as an incentive for people to quit smoking or to switch to this better alternative and certainly, heat-not-burn being the first one, that could be perceived as a nice and satisfying alternative for smoker wanting to go for a better product.

所以坦白說，我認為目前判斷這項計劃是否具有正確的意圖還為時過早。無論如何，如果我們要真正實施，就必須具備高度的意識，有更好的替代品可供選擇，並且肯定要從加熱不燃燒開始。這應該被視為激勵人們戒菸或轉向這種更好替代品的動力，而加熱不燃燒作為第一個替代品，對於想要獲得更好產品的吸煙者來說，它無疑是一個不錯的、令人滿意的替代品。

So I think that the idea is -- and it's not new because I think the FDA had put the idea on the table already in 2017. I don't think that much work has been done so far on all the potential consequences. We believe that a lot of work would have to be done on the impact and a lot of scientific evidence would have to be gathered and study on that. And in any case, for us, that would have to be coupled with very strong awareness, availability and present that as an alternative for people who don't want to quit but want to keep consuming nicotine.

所以我認為這個想法——它並不新鮮，因為我認為FDA早在2017年就提出了這個想法。我認為到目前為止，針對所有潛在後果的研究還不夠多。我們認為，需要對其影響進行大量研究，並收集和研究大量的科學證據。無論如何，對我們來說，這必須與高度的認知度、可用性相結合，並將其作為不想戒菸但想繼續吸食尼古丁的人的替代方案。

Our next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

I just wanted to focus on the incremental commercial spend in the second half. Could you maybe give some more specifics around what this will be behind? Will it largely be focused on the rollout of VEEV and ILUMA? And then linked to this, I was just wondering how many markets realistically are you targeting for VEEV and ILUMA to be in by the back end of the year?

我只想關注下半年增量的商業支出。您能否更詳細說明一下這方面的支出狀況？主要會集中在 VEEV 和 ILUMA 的推出上嗎？然後，與此相關，我想知道您實際的目標是在今年年底前在多少個市場推出 VEEV 和 ILUMA？

Yes. Sure, Owen. So on the commercial spending, of course, here, it's expecting, we believe, realistically that in many market, the situation on COVID will gradually improve. So everybody believe that in many markets, with the vaccination and positive evolution starting in the summer, we're going to see through H2 a gradual improvement.

是的，歐文，當然。所以，關於商業支出，我們當然預期，並且相信，現實情況是，在許多市場，新冠疫情會逐漸好轉。所以大家都相信，隨著疫苗接種和夏季開始出現的積極進展，我們將在下半年看到許多市場逐步改善。

So as you know, during a significant period of time because of COVID, we've been somewhat limited, restricted in commercial action, I would say, across the portfolio, but of course, starting on our IQOS business. So as we see the market opening up, it will, in a general manner, be time to be back on communication, on making our IQOS product known. Build awareness again around IQOS is absolutely key in building our IQOS business. And obviously, that will trigger more commercial and marketing activity.

如你所知，在新冠疫情肆虐的相當長一段時間裡，我們的商業活動受到了一定程度的限制，我想說，這涉及到整個產品組合，但當然，IQOS 業務是啟動的。因此，隨著市場的開放，總的來說，是時候恢復溝通，推廣我們的 IQOS 產品了。重新提升 IQOS 的知名度絕對是我們發展 IQOS 業務的關鍵。顯然，這將引發更多的商業和行銷活動。

On top of that, you're absolutely right, that will be a period of very important launch with ILUMA and VEEV. Although VEEV has been started to be launched, we expect a number of market in the second part of the year. We'll see exactly what is the final number. We want to make sure that we do that well with the right focus.

除此之外，您說得完全正確，這將是ILUMA和VEEV發布的重要時期。雖然VEEV已經開始發布，但我們預計今年下半年會有一定數量的市場。最終的數字我們拭目以待。我們希望確保以正確的重點做好這項工作。

On ILUMA, you can expect key market to be first on the priority list for launch. So I'm not going to disclose at that stage the names, but you certainly expect a key market for us on IQOS to be coming very first on the list. And of course, that will require specific investment to make sure that smokers or other already RRP user understand what is the benefit of ILUMA, why it is an even greater product than IQOS 3 DUO and generating more conversion, more loyalty to our product. So that will require nice investment in the second part of the year. So that is really what is behind the $300 million to $400 million that we are mentioning here.

對於ILUMA，你可以預期關鍵市場會是優先推出的市場。所以我目前不會透露具體的名字，但你肯定會期待IQOS上一個關鍵市場會排在第一位。當然，這需要專門的投資，以確保吸煙者或其他已經是建議零售價（RRP）的用戶了解ILUMA的優勢，了解為什麼它比IQOS 3 DUO更出色，並能帶來更高的轉換率和更高的產品忠誠度。所以，這需要在今年下半年進行大量的投資。這就是我們之前提到的3億到4億美元投資背後的真正原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I wanted to ask maybe a follow-up on ILUMA. Just trying to understand, as you roll this out, what's the expectation of how incremental this can be. I mean I guess I'm wondering from your expectations internally, are you expecting to see a lot of current or dedicated IQOS users upgrade to this device? Or are you expecting for a lot of new users coming into IQOS?

我想問一下關於ILUMA的後續問題。我想了解一下，隨著你們推出這款產品，你們對它的增量預期是什麼。我的意思是，我想知道從你們內部的預期來看，你們預計會有很多現有或忠實的IQOS用戶升級到這款設備嗎？還是說，你們預計會有很多新用戶加入IQOS？

And then since you're introducing this broad range of consumables with ILUMA, how -- should we assume that there is some level of incremental cost view related to that and therefore, a margin drag or not necessarily? Just trying to think about how accretive this could be for you.

那麼，既然你們透過ILUMA推出如此廣泛的耗材，我們是否應該假設與此相關的成本增量會有所增加，從而拖累利潤率？還是不一定？我只是在想，這對你們來說能有多大的增值潛力。

Yes. Sure, Bonnie. Happy to answer on these 2 points. So on the impact of ILUMA, we broadly expect ILUMA to be positive. Well, first of all, of course, on acquiring new smokers and converting new smokers because they're going to find a more intuitive, easier-to-use product. And we may convince with ILUMA a smoker that we did not manage to convince so far. So that's the first element.

是的，Bonnie，我很樂意回答這兩個問題。所以，關於ILUMA的影響，我們總體上預期它會是正面的。首先，當然是吸引新菸民，並引導新菸民轉變，因為他們會找到更直覺、更容易使用的產品。而且，我們或許可以用ILUMA說服一些我們目前沒能說服的煙民。所以，這是第一要素。

Second, of course, we're going to also have a number of IQOS user or other heat-not-burn tobacco product user switching to ILUMA because it's really a severe product with a lot of benefit for the consumer.

其次，當然，我們也將有許多 IQOS 使用者或其他加熱不燃燒菸草產品使用者轉而使用 ILUMA，因為它確實是能為消費者帶來許多好處的嚴肅產品。

And last, we believe that in term of loyalty and people fully adopting the heat-not-burn practices and not moving back to cigarettes, the fact that it's a better product is also going to play a very nice role. So we expect to have people abandoning and switching back to cigarette to be nicely lower once again because it's much easier to use, it's an overall better experience. And we think it's going to be really having a nice impact on that one.

最後，我們相信，就忠誠度以及人們全面採用加熱不燃燒技術、不再重吸香菸而言，加熱不燃燒產品本身的卓越性能也將發揮非常重要的作用。因此，我們預計，由於加熱不燃燒技術使用起來更加便捷，並且整體體驗更好，人們戒菸和重吸香菸的比例將大幅降低。我們認為，加熱不燃燒技術將在這方面產生積極的影響。

So as you can see, we expect several driver behind this ILUMA innovation to further boost our performance on IQOS globally.

因此，正如您所看到的，我們預計 ILUMA 創新背後的幾個驅動因素將進一步提升我們在全球範圍內在 IQOS 上的表現。

Regarding consumable and globally as a launch, I would say, you should expect, like always, when you launch a new product, you are coming with a product that is not fully optimized in term of manufacturing productivity. It's a new product. At the beginning, the volume are low. You've made some investment. It takes some time to be fully optimized.

關於消耗品和全球發布，我想說，像往常一樣，當你推出一款新產品時，你應該預料到，它的產品在製造效率方面還沒有完全優化。它是一款新產品。初期產量很低。你已經進行了一些投資。完全優化需要一些時間。

So there will be -- beyond the cost of launching the product for marketing and commercial reason, there will be some impact at the gross margin level at the beginning because it's a new product and there will be a ramp-up on the profitability of this new product and on the consumable margin on this new product. And that is, of course, taken into account in our guidance.

因此，除了出於行銷和商業原因推出產品的成本外，由於這是一款新產品，初期的毛利率水準也會受到一定影響，而新產品的獲利能力和消耗品利潤率都會隨之提升。當然，這些因素都已納入我們的預期之中。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then I wanted to circle back to some of the news that came out yesterday regarding a potential cap on nicotine levels on cigarettes in the U.S. So I guess my question is, wondering if there's anything you can do to accelerate the rollout of IQOS in the U.S. since I imagine, if a nicotine cap would ever be implemented, as I see it, IQOS would have a distinct advantage. So I'd love it if you could touch on that.

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想回到昨天發布的一些關於美國可能對香菸尼古丁含量設限的新聞。我的問題是，您可以做些什麼來加速IQOS在美國的推廣，因為我認為，如果真的實施尼古丁含量限制，IQOS將擁有明顯的優勢。所以，如果您能談談這個問題，我將非常高興。

And then maybe your latest thoughts on potentially entering the U.S. market with VEEV. Wondering if that might now become more of a possibility? And if so, will you or have you submitted a PMTA?

您最近想透過VEEV進入美國市場嗎？想知道現在這個可能性是否更大嗎？如果是的話，您是否已經提交了PMTA？

So just on the second one, on VEEV, it is certainly our intention at a certain point in time to submit a PMTA. We have not done it yet. And I don't have the time line yet when we do that. But yes, it is certainly our intention to do that at a certain point in time.

關於第二個問題，關於VEEV，我們當然打算在某個時間點提交PMTA。我們還沒有這樣做。我也沒有具體的時間表。但是，是的，我們當然打算在某個時間點這樣做。

Now on growing the IQOS business, of course, we will work with our partner, Altria, there. Remember, we are not commercializing IQOS in the U.S. We have licensed the IQOS commercialization to Altria. Let's not overreact to what is even not a news. I think it's a press article yesterday. And therefore, we should not run too fast to conclusion or believe that the world is going to change overnight. I think it's just a press article.

現在，在發展IQOS業務方面，我們當然會與合作夥伴奧馳亞合作。請記住，我們並沒有在美國商業化IQOS。我們只是將IQOS的商業化授權給了奧馳亞。我們不要對一些甚至不是新聞的事情反應過度。我認為這只是昨天的一篇新聞報導。因此，我們不應該草率下結論，也不應該相信世界會在一夜之間改變。我認為這只是一篇新聞報道而已。

But now we are convinced that the FDA has one clear objective, which is to promote a policy for harm reduction that will go through innovation and based on scientific evidence. And they want to supervise that. The MRTP that we received on IQOS 2.4 signaled that they see IQOS as a positive contribution and, according to their own words, that it's appropriate to promote public health. So that means that we have with IQOS a role to play that we believe that this vision of the FDA is something that we can accompany and that we can foster and help to develop with our innovation and with IQOS. And of course, we'll make sure that with Altria, we try to maximize what we can do there.

但現在我們確信，FDA 有一個明確的目標，那就是推廣一項基於創新和科學證據的減害政策。他們希望對此進行監督。我們收到的關於 IQOS 2.4 的 MRTP 表明，他們認為 IQOS 做出了積極的貢獻，並且用他們自己的話來說，它有利於促進公眾健康。這意味著我們在 IQOS 方面可以發揮作用，我們相信 FDA 的願景是我們能夠支持和推動的，我們可以透過我們的創新和 IQOS 來促進和發展。當然，我們將確保與奧馳亞合作，盡最大努力。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的亞當‧斯皮爾曼 (Adam Spielman)。

I have two questions. The first one is on IQOS market share. Now in the first couple of years, you've seen very good growth in 4Q versus 3Q and 1Q versus 4Q. And then market share has stalled, and you can see that, for example, on Slide 19 and Slide 21. But sort of 2Q and 3Q, there's been no growth in Japan or in -- or little growth in the EU and in Russia. And I guess the question is, should we expect the same sort of pattern in 2021? In other words, great growth in 4Q, you just delivered good growth in Q1, but then the market share will be pretty stable for the next couple of quarters in your key markets.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於IQOS的市場佔有率。在最初的幾年裡，你們看到第四季和第一季的增幅都非常可觀。之後市佔率就停滯了，你可以在投影片19和21上看到這一點。但在第二季和第三季度，日本、歐盟和俄羅斯的市場沒有成長，或者說成長很少。我想問題是，我們是否應該預期2021年也會出現同樣的模式？換句話說，第四季度實現了大幅成長，而第一季剛剛實現了良好的成長，但在接下來的幾個季度裡，你們在主要市場的市場份額將保持相當穩定。

Adam, well, I think certainly the element, but I'm sure you have that in mind that you need to take into account is, first of all, that there is an underlying seasonality in many market that is impacting the volume on CC and therefore, the denominator being impacted, that is even if IQOS continue to grow and -- globally, heat-not-burn continue to grow very nicely, that is impacting the overall market share.

亞當，嗯，我認為肯定有這個因素，但我相信你已經考慮到了，你需要考慮的是，首先，許多市場都存在潛在的季節性，這會影響 CC 的銷量，因此分母也會受到影響，也就是說，即使 IQOS 繼續增長 - 在全球範圍內，加熱不燃燒繼續保持良好的增長，這也會影響整體市場份額。

And in addition to that, the COVID impact on border closure impact, impact on illicit and some market that was not tracked that emerged and that was mainly CC business, of course, there, again, changing the denominator has been impacting the market share. So it's going to be a mix, we believe, in 2021, still with impact from the COVID of this normal seasonality plus the still specific impact linked to the COVID.

除此之外，新冠疫情也對邊境關閉、非法交易以及一些未被追蹤的新興市場（主要是信用卡業務）產生了影響。當然，這些因素的變化也對市佔率產生了影響。因此，我們認為，2021年的情況將呈現出混合態勢，既有新冠疫情這種正常季節性因素的影響，也有與新冠疫情相關的特定影響。

Now we target progressive growth overall. But it's true that on certain market, we may have after a very strong acceleration in 1 quarter. For all this reason, the following quarter, that could be with a lower growth and even stable with, of course, year-on-year, it's still very strong growth, but you appreciate that. It's sequentially that the market share is potentially not growing at the same pace.

現在我們的目標是整體上逐步成長。但確實，在某些市場，我們可能在某個季度經歷了非常強勁的成長。因此，下一個季度的成長可能會有所放緩，甚至可能保持穩定。當然，與去年同期來看，這仍然是非常強勁的成長，但你也應該理解這一點。但市場佔有率可能不會以同樣的速度成長，這是連續的。

It doesn't mean, of course, that the volume even sequentially are not growing either. You can have volume growing as well with the market share stable. So I think market share has to be taken with a pinch of salt and should be appreciated over a longer period of time to be meaningful in what they say.

當然，這並不意味著銷量甚至環比都沒有成長。在市佔率保持穩定的情況下，銷售量也可以成長。所以我認為市佔率這個說法需要謹慎看待，需要放在更長的一段時間內去考量，才能真正有意義。

That's very helpful. And my...

這很有幫助。還有我的…

I hope that makes sense.

我希望這是有道理的。

Yes. Yes. That's helpful. And my second question is around your quarterly EPS guidance. And really, the question is whether you're worried that people are beginning to disregard it and sort of consensus is just sort of -- well, not consensus, but the way the market thinks about you is no longer under your control.

是的，是的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於你們的季度每股盈餘指引。實際上，問題是你是否擔心人們開始忽視它，而所謂的共識只是某種——好吧，不是共識，而是市場對你的看法不再受你控制。

Now let me try and explain that question a bit more. In the past 2 or 3 years, every time you've given guidance on a quarter, you've beaten it massively. I, frankly, no longer take much notice of it or at least if you give a guidance for a certain amount of EPS, I think it's probably going to come in 10% or 12% more. And it started again this quarter. And yet the shares are fundamentally flat. Now there might be other reasons for that. But it looks to me as if the market is sort of disregarding your EPS guidance on the quarter. And to me, that seems quite a dangerous situation for you. And so I was wondering if you think that's right. If you're worried about it, why you didn't actually -- if you thought you were going to beat when you shipped more at the end of the quarter, you didn't tell the market? And how you think this dynamic is going to play out going forward?

現在讓我試著進一步解釋一下這個問題。在過去的兩三年裡，每次你給予季度業績指引，結果都大幅超出預期。坦白說，我現在不再太在意這個指引了，或者至少如果你給出某個季度的每股收益指引，我認為它可能會比預期高出10%或12%。這個季度又出現了這種情況。然而，股價基本上持平。這或許還有其他原因。但在我看來，市場似乎有點忽略了你本季的每股盈餘指引。在我看來，這對你來說似乎是一個相當危險的情況。所以我想知道你是否認為這是正確的。如果你擔心這一點，為什麼你沒有——如果你認為季度末出貨量增加會超過預期，你沒有告訴市場？你認為這種動態未來會如何發展？

Yes, Adam. So taking your challenge on guidance and what we deliver, I would identify 2 sources for 2 reason, 2 driver for beating often the guidance. The first one, and I think it's a good one, is the fact that we are often surprised by the strength of the IQOS business. So we expect something and it's coming even stronger, which is the case in this Q1 for some of the beat. So we are trying to make a fair assessment of what we can expect. And then when things are coming better, we take that as good news. But it's true. We've been too cautious in the way we've been forecasting.

是的，亞當。所以，針對你對績效指引和我們交付成果的質疑，我會指出兩個原因，也就是我們經常超越預期的驅動力。第一個原因，我認為很有道理，那就是我們常常對IQOS業務的強勁表現感到驚訝。所以我們期待著它的發展，而且它甚至會變得更強勁，今年第一季的一些表現就是如此。所以我們正在努力對預期做出公平的評估。然後，當情況好轉時，我們會將其視為好消息。但這是真的。我們的預測方式過於謹慎了。

The other one, which I hope everybody understand, is that in today's environment, it's more difficult to anticipate, predict things because you have a lot of volatility. And we've been -- it's truly no surprise by seeing that we did not necessarily anticipate well. And that can be a spending that we thought we would do even in March and that we eventually did not do in term of investment and we are going to do that later in the year or some movement in market that we are not well anticipated, again, with the COVID impact creating a lot of nervousness, volatility and, frankly, somewhat a roller coaster in some of the attitude of the trade and even pantry loading from customers.

另一個我希望大家都能理解的一點是，在當今的環境下，預測和預測事情變得更加困難，因為市場波動很大。我們一直以來——看到我們未能準確預測這一點並不奇怪。例如，我們甚至在3月就計劃進行支出，但最終卻沒有進行投資，而我們計劃在今年稍後進行投資，或者市場出現了一些我們未能充分預期的波動。新冠疫情的影響再次造成了巨大的緊張和波動，坦白說，一些商家的態度就像坐過山車一樣，甚至顧客的食品儲藏量也出現了波動。

So that would be really the 2 driver explaining why we've been beating on a few occasion our guidance. And when we know early in the quarter that we're going to beat, I mean, we share with that, when it really happen at the end of the quarter, I think we believe that it become clear at a stage where we say we're going to -- we see that very close to the communication, if you want.

所以，這才是我們幾次超出預期的真正原因。當我們在季度初就知道會超出預期時，我的意思是，我們會與大家分享這一點。當它真的在季度末發生時，我相信，當我們說「我們會」達到預期時，情況就會變得明朗——如果你願意的話，我們會在溝通中看到這一點。

Now on your challenge of -- or your question, does it mean that the market is no longer following you, well, I don't think this is the case. I think everybody understand the specificity of this COVID situation and accept that there can be volatility in things that we don't anticipate well. And then on the strength of IQOS, I think everybody can have a view on what we can deliver. I think we are today revising upwards the guidance on the number of HeatSticks for the year to 95 billion to 100 billion. I think based on the Q1, that's really sharing with all investors, shareholder, analyst the best possible assumption that we can make and really reflecting our vision at that stage.

現在，關於您提出的挑戰——或者說您的問題，這是否意味著市場不再跟隨您？嗯，我認為並非如此。我認為每個人都了解這次新冠疫情的特殊性，並且接受我們無法準確預測的市場波動。然後，就IQOS的強勁表現而言，我想每個人都可以對我們能夠實現的目標有所了解。我認為我們今天將今年加熱棒的銷量預期上調至950億至1000億支。我認為，基於第一季的業績，這實際上是與所有投資者、股東和分析師分享我們所能做出的最佳假設，並且真正反映了我們目前階段的願景。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just wanted to come back to your comments about pricing on HeatSticks and how you've begun to differentiate a little bit more there. And if -- I assume if I heard you right, you said you're now doing both above and below the original price points you've had. Obviously, in Japan, we saw with the HEETS launch a lower price points introduced.

我想回到你關於HeatSticks定價的評論，以及你們是如何開始在HeatSticks上進行更多差異化的。如果我沒聽錯的話，你說現在的售價既高於也低於原來的價格。顯然，在日本，我們看到HEETS的推出降低了價格。

But can you give a little more color on how you're doing above where you have been price points? And is there additional -- a new brand you have or a second or a third one? And just how that's positioned and if it's not too, too early, what you're seeing so far with that?

但您能否再詳細談談，在超出既定價格區間的情況下，您們的業績表現如何？你們還有其他品牌嗎？例如新品牌、第二個或第三個品牌？這些品牌的定位如何？如果現在談論這些品牌還為時過早，您目前對它們的發展有何展望？

Sure. Mike, happy to do that. What is happening on our IQOS business and on the consumable is typically what you would expect in a market -- consumer good market where things start to mature a little bit. And I'm using this word with a lot of cautiousness, of course, because it's a very young market still. But in a few market like Japan, for instance, a few other market where we are now double-digit market share, it's maturing a little bit.

當然。麥克，我很樂意這麼做。我們的IQOS業務和消費品市場的情況通常與你在一個市場——消費品市場——中可以預期的情況一致，這個市場正在開始逐漸成熟。當然，我非常謹慎地使用這個詞，因為它仍然是一個非常年輕的市場。但在一些市場，例如日本，以及其他一些我們現在擁有兩位數市場份額的市場，它正在逐漸成熟。

So typically, the consumer, the customer will expect based on his purchasing power, his purchasing based on his personal lifestyle and what he wants to enjoy or what he want to say about his life or her life around him will want to have different, I would say, positioning on what he's consuming.

因此，通常情況下，消費者，客戶會根據自己的購買力進行預期，他的購買行為基於他的個人生活方式以及他想要享受的東西，或者他想表達的關於他的生活或他周圍的生活的內容，他會希望對他所消費的東西有不同的定位。

So when you go for innovation, what we did with the HEETS consumable, you have one single reference at the beginning. And then rapidly, you see the need for segmenting the market. There is a category of the consumer that will be very keen to have an even superior experience. So to get to an even better consumable and really to pay more for that, so to have higher expense.

所以當你追求創新時，就像我們在HEETS耗材上所做的那樣，一開始只有一個參考。然後很快，你就會看到細分市場的必要性。有一類消費者非常渴望更卓越的體驗。因此，為了獲得更好的耗材，他們實際上需要為此付出更多，也就是更高的成本。

So that's what we have with whether the Marlboro HeatSticks in Japan or HEETS Creation in Russia, you keep the premium below the hyper premium, if you want. And then at a certain point in time, there is also a need for a medium and probably, later in the future, for a medium minimum positioning because other consumer will be keen to have an inferior overall experience but still great, rewarding versus what they used to have with the same category of combustible and, of course, at a lower price point.

所以，無論是日本的萬寶路HeatSticks，還是俄羅斯的HEETS Creation，只要你願意，都可以把高階產品保持在超高階產品線以下。然後，在某個時間點，也需要中等定位，或許在未來，也需要中等最低定位，因為其他消費者會渴望獲得整體體驗稍遜一籌但仍然很棒的體驗，與過去同類產品相比，當然，價格也更低。

So I think we're just doing the right commercial marketing job to make sure that we give satisfaction to all the expectation of our customers. It happened gradually. It's not relevant yet in every country. But as more and more country are becoming a bit mature, that will become increasingly relevant in more and more market in the future.

所以我認為我們只是在做正確的商業行銷工作，以確保滿足客戶的所有期望。這是循序漸進的。目前這並非適用於所有國家。但隨著越來越多國家逐漸成熟，未來在越來越多的市場中，這一點將變得越來越重要。

Okay. That's really helpful color. And on your sort of "mature Japan market," where you grew 3 or 4 share points year-over-year. I just want to make sure I understand some of the dynamics there. You give the adjusted share, which, of course, excludes some trade moves, but also cigarillos and then the other share, the gap between those has widened a little bit. Over the 5 quarters you show, it's like 1.3, 1.5, 6, 9 and then 2.6. Unfortunately, we don't have great visibility on cigarillos. Is it just growth in that segment the key driver there? Or is there also a little bit of an inventory build we should have in mind as we think about modeling 2Q and beyond?

好的。這確實很有幫助。至於你們所謂的“成熟日本市場”，你們的市佔率年增了3到4個百分點。我只是想確保我理解那裡的一些動態。你們給了調整後的市場份額，當然，這排除了一些貿易波動，但也排除了小雪茄，然後是其他市場份額，兩者之間的差距略有擴大。在你們展示的5個季度中，這個差距大概是1.3%、1.5%、6%、9%，然後是2.6%。遺憾的是，我們對小雪茄的了解並不多。僅僅是這個細分市場的成長才是關鍵驅動力嗎？或者，在考慮第二季及以後的預測時，我們是否也應該考慮到庫存的增加？

No. Michael, there is no concern of inventory build whatsoever. That's certainly the level of cigarillo. Remember, that is a specific category. The tax advantage will fully disappear next October, but that's still until now a very dynamic category in Japan.

不，邁克爾，根本不需要擔心庫存增加。這當然指的是小雪茄的庫存。記住，這是一個特定的類別。稅收優惠將於明年10月完全取消，但到目前為止，小雪茄在日本仍然是一個非常活躍的類別。

So what we are, as I said, seeing in Japan has been following the October excise duty increase and price increase, a very, very nice reaction from our IQOS business altogether, both Marlboro HeatSticks and HEETS. We've been gaining very nicely market share at the end of the year 2020 in Q4. It continued in Q1. And therefore, we are disclosing very positive and genuine market share growth during the last 2 quarter, and we're very happy with it.

正如我所說，我們在日本看到的是，在10月份消費稅和價格上調之後，我們的IQOS業務（包括萬寶路加熱棒和HEETS）都做出了非常非常好的回應。我們在2020年第四季的市佔率成長非常可觀，第一季也延續了這種勢頭。因此，我們揭露了過去第二季度非常積極且真實的市場份額成長，我們對此感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

Questions were asked. I have just two quick ones for you. I was just curious in relation to IQOS, you've had really strong development of market share in Russia and the EU. Those are also markets where you continue to build your availability of the product. Do you have a rough approximation of how widely available IQOS is, say, in the EU and Russia? Is there still more distribution potential in those markets to get it in front of more consumers?

有人問了問題。我只想快速問您兩個問題。我對IQOS很感興趣，你們在俄羅斯和歐盟的市佔率成長非常強勁。這些市場也是你們持續提升產品供應的市場。您能大致估計一下IQOS在歐盟和俄羅斯的普及程度嗎？這些市場是否有更大的經銷潛力，可以讓更多消費者接觸IQOS？

Well, clearly, we said that in Russia, we have not a full coverage of the country yet. In the EU, we have a number of country where we are in the big cities, but not yet with an important full coverage, I would say, with a lot of capillarity.

嗯，顯然，我們說過，在俄羅斯，我們還沒有實現全國覆蓋。在歐盟，雖然我們在一些國家的大城市開展了業務，但還沒有實現重要的全覆蓋，我想說，覆蓋面很廣。

I think Jacek, at the time of the Investor Day, highlighted the market share that we have in key cities and signaled that if we look backwards, the market share a few years upstream are -- in big city are a good indication of where you can get the whole market a few years down the road.

我認為，雅切克在投資者日上強調了我們在主要城市的市場份額，並表示，如果我們回顧過去，幾年前大城市的市場份額可以很好地預示幾年後整個市場的份額。

So I think that that's a pretty good indicator of the fact that we managed, of course, to get even higher market share in key cities than the overall country. And the fact that we have done that in key city mean that we are very likely if we continue to do a good job to reach the same kind of market share globally for the country. But of course, it's not the end of the road because at the same time, we'll keep increasing share in the big city. So it's an ongoing improvement, if you want. But that's I think the way you should be looking at things.

所以我認為這是一個很好的指標，顯示我們在重點城市的市佔率當然比全國平均還要高。我們在重點城市取得的成績意味著，如果我們繼續保持良好的業績，我們很有可能在全球達到同樣的全國市場份額。當然，這並不是終點，因為同時，我們將繼續提昇在大城市的市佔率。所以，如果你願意的話，這是一個持續的進步。但我認為這才是你應該看待事物的角度。

Okay. That's helpful. And just one other question in relation to combustibles and an area where you've had a little bit of share pressure again this quarter, and there's some reasons for that. But I just was curious, when I think about commercial investments in the second half of the year, I always think of that in relation to IQOS and reduced risk products. Do you need to apply more money, more attention, whatever the right word is, towards combustible cigarettes to try to shore up some of that market share decline? I know some of this is being generated by the success of IQOS. But just curious how you're looking at that. And is there any kind of change in the competitive dynamic you're seeing in combustibles?

好的，這很有幫助。還有一個關於可燃香菸的問題，本季你們在這個領域再次面臨一些市佔率壓力，這其中有一些原因。但我只是好奇，當我想到下半年的商業投資時，我總是會想到IQOS和低風險產品。你們是否需要在可燃香菸上投入更多資金、更多關注，無論用什麼詞來形容，試圖彌補市場份額的下滑？我知道這部分是由於IQOS的成功。但我好奇您是如何看待這個問題的。您認為可燃香菸的競爭態勢有什麼改變嗎？

I mean we're certainly seeing competition quite active on combustible because for many of them, they have only little presence in RRPs. So they are trying to protect and build their business there. And especially, sometimes they are under pressure because of the growth in the heat-not-burn category.

我的意思是，我們確實看到可燃性產品領域的競爭相當激烈，因為許多公司在建議零售價（RRP）市場中份額很小。所以他們正努力保護和發展自己的事業。尤其是加熱不燃燒產品類別的成長，有時他們也會面臨壓力。

Chris, we are just reminding everybody that maintaining our leadership in CC is an absolute priority. We need this leadership in order to make sure that we keep the link with the smoker that we want to convert in order to keep the impact with the trade to bring our RRP offering to customers and, of course, for the financial resources that you provide in order to invest behind RRP.

克里斯，我們只是想提醒大家，保持我們在CC的領先地位是當務之急。我們需要這種領導力，以確保我們與目標吸煙者保持聯繫，保持對煙草行業的影響力，將我們的RRP產品帶給客戶，當然，也感謝您提供的資金支持，用於投資RRP。

So you should expect us to continue to invest on CC to maintain this market share. It is clear that although it's not going to be the majority, but there will be some investment in the second half on the CC business as we defend our business. And as we see some of the markets where we've been sometime hit hard by the COVID and we talk about the social consumption that has been hitting Marlboro, well, as we think the world is back to more social life in the second half, that would probably be a time to be back on making sure that we maintain and further strengthen the leadership on Marlboro, as an example.

所以，你應該期待我們繼續在CC業務上投入，以維持這一市場份額。顯然，雖然這不會占到大多數，但為了捍衛我們的業務，我們將在下半年在CC業務上進行一些投資。我們看到一些市場受到了新冠疫情的嚴重打擊，我們也談到了社交消費對萬寶路的影響。我們認為，下半年世界將恢復更多的社交生活，那時或許正是我們重新關注並進一步鞏固萬寶路領導地位的時候。

Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

So I just wanted to come back to understanding your guidance and the cadence for this year. Given the strength in the first quarter and the outlook for Q2, your guidance for EPS implies a moderation from about mid-20% growth in the first half to high single-digit growth in the second half. And obviously, you pointed to added incremental investments. But are there any other factors impacting the second half outlook? Because when -- even when adjusting for the added incremental spend, it implies a notable moderation in growth. So just trying to understand what [consistency is that] and how conservative it might be.

所以，我只是想再次了解您今年的業績指引和節奏。鑑於第一季的強勁表現以及第二季的前景，您對每股盈餘的指引暗示，下半年的每股盈餘成長將從上半年的20%左右放緩至高個位數。顯然，您提到了新增投資。但還有其他因素影響下半年的前景嗎？因為即使考慮到新增支出，成長也會顯著放緩。所以，我只是想了解一下（所謂的「一致性」），以及它究竟有多保守。

I'm happy to take that one. So I'm sure we've highlighted the fact that the Q1 margin has been helped, of course, by some deferral of investment on SG&A. And we signaled the fact that we'll be much more active in H2 and the $300 million to $400 million extra investment versus the first half. But we also signaled that gross margin has been -- I mean performance on gross margin is absolutely impressive in Q1, and we're going to deliver a very strong performance on gross margin rate improvements through the year.

我很樂意接受這個。我相信我們已經強調了第一季利潤率的提升，這當然得益於銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）投資的延遲。我們也暗示了下半年我們會更積極，並且會比上半年額外投資3億到4億美元。但我們也暗示了毛利率——我的意思是，第一季的毛利率表現絕對令人印象深刻，而且我們將在全年實現非常強勁的毛利率提升。

But we flagged the fact that Q1 had been boost as well by nonrecurring element on manufacturing productivity. And therefore, we think that as it's not going to be reproduced, we're going to have here a moderation. We also are going to face, and that was Bonnie's question previously, some impact coming from the launch of ILUMA and the consumable of ILUMA where there will be some pressure on gross margin because of it is -- of the launch and the time for the ramp-up on manufacturing productivity. And we will have also a number of investment that will be in the gross margin on distribution in the second half.

但我們指出，第一季的業績也受到了非經常性因素對製造業生產力的提振。因此，我們認為這種情況不會重演，因此我們將會適度成長。我們也將面臨一些影響，這也是Bonnie先前提出的問題，ILUMA及其耗材的推出將帶來一些影響，由於ILUMA的推出以及製造生產率提升的時間，毛利率將面臨一些壓力。下半年，我們也將在分銷毛利率方面進行一些投資。

So if you combine the fact that Q1 was exceptional for a few reason and the fact that there is both at the gross margin level in Q2 some element that will be impacting negatively plus increased investment, that is driving the outlook for the margin in the second half. Although, as I said, we're going to keep with a very nice margin improvement, but I'm sure you've noted that already.

因此，如果將第一季因某些原因表現優異，以及第二季毛利率水準受到一些負面影響，再加上投資增加等因素結合起來，這將影響下半年利潤率的前景。雖然正如我所說，我們將繼續保持非常可觀的利潤率成長，但我相信您已經注意到了這一點。

Also, I just wanted to ask about IQOS VEEV learnings and performance in your initial launch markets. I understand you're leveraging your existing IQOS platform to commercialize these. So how are you steering consumers across the various products?

另外，我想問IQOS VEEV在你們最初推出的市場中的經驗和表現。我知道你們正在利用現有的IQOS平台來實現這些產品的商業化。那麼，你們是如何引導消費者選擇各種產品的呢？

Yes. So at that stage, Pamela, it's very early stage, few market, very preliminary. We have very good feedback from customers reflecting the fact that it's a superior experience versus most or traditional vaping experience.

是的。帕梅拉，目前還處於非常早期的階段，市場規模很小，非常初步。我們從客戶那裡得到了非常好的回饋，他們反映出，與大多數傳統的電子煙體驗相比，它的體驗更出色。

So we are collecting the data. We are reviewing the first information coming from these markets. And when we have a bit more element to share, we'll do that. I would say for the time being on the limited number of market and with very small volume, we are happy with the qualitative feedback that we are getting from these markets.

所以我們正在收集數據。我們正在審查來自這些市場的第一批資訊。當我們有更多資訊可以分享時，我們會這樣做。我想說，目前，由於市場數量有限，交易量也非常小，我們對從這些市場獲得的定性回饋感到滿意。

Our final question will come from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Coming back to the questions which have been asked on repeated earnings beat and earnings coming ahead of guidance. How does this impact your thought process around the magnitude and timing of share repurchases?

回到之前關於盈利持續超出預期和盈利超出預期的問題。這對您在股票回購規模和時機的思考有何影響？

I don't think that this is having a meaningful impact, Gaurav. I think we've signaled previously that we are absolutely on track provided, of course, that we receive Board approval to start share buyback in the second half of the year, as announced at the time of the Investor Day. I'm not sure that at that stage, we are building a strategy based on that. As I said, I'm hopeful that with the COVID headwind abating, we're going to be better forecaster in the future for our quarterly guidance. So I don't take that as a kind of element that would be here to stay.

高拉夫，我認為這不會產生什麼實質的影響。我認為我們之前已經暗示過，我們絕對走在正確的軌道上，當然，前提是我們獲得董事會批准在下半年啟動股票回購，就像投資者日宣布的那樣。我不確定我們目前是否正在基於此制定策略。正如我所說，我希望隨著新冠疫情逆風的減弱，我們未來能夠更好地預測季度業績。所以我不認為這種情況會一直存在。

Sure. And my second question is on -- and maybe I'm incorrect in what I'm saying, but as I understand, a pack of IQOS has about 6 grams of tobacco while a pack of cigarettes has 16 gram of tobacco. So does it imply that a pack of IQOS has lower nicotine versus a pack of cigarettes, which could therefore be something which helps you in this debate around nicotine caps?

當然。我的第二個問題是——也許我的說法有誤，但據我了解，一包IQOS電子煙大約含有6克煙草，而一包香煙含有16克煙草。那麼，這是否意味著一包IQOS電子煙的尼古丁含量低於一包香菸？這是否對您在這場關於尼古丁帽的爭論中有所幫助？

No, Gaurav, not necessarily. It has an impact on some time in some country, not everywhere, on the excise duty because excise duty is on the weight of tobacco in several countries in the world. But the weight of tobacco is not directly going to guide the nicotine content that you're going to inhale through IQOS consumption or -- versus combustible consumption.

不，Gaurav，不一定。它在某些國家/地區（而非所有國家/地區）的某個時間段會對消費稅產生影響，因為世界上一些國家的消費稅是根據菸草的重量徵收的。但菸草的重量並不會直接影響你透過IQOS或可燃性菸草吸入的尼古丁含量。

And that was our final question. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

這是我們最後一個問題。接下來，我想把發言權交還給管理階層，請大家補充意見或做最後總結。

Well, thank you very much for joining.

好吧，非常感謝您的加入。

Thank you...

謝謝...

That concludes our call for today. Sorry, Emmanuel. Unless you had a comment...

今天的電話會議到此結束。抱歉，Emmanuel。除非你有什麼意見…

No. No. I want just to thank everybody for attending the call today, and we look forward to talk to you soon.

不，不。我只是想感謝大家今天參加電話會議，我們期待很快與你們交談。

Thank you. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you again and have a great day.

謝謝。如有任何疑問，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。再次感謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Bye-bye. Bye, everybody.

再見，各位再見。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們，先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。