Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Palomar Holdings, Inc. first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Palomar Holdings, Inc. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Chris Uchida, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話轉給財務長 Chris Uchida 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in our earnings call. With me here today is Mac Armstrong, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Additionally, Jon Christianson, our President, is here to answer questions during the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的收益電話會議。今天和我一起在場的是我們的董事長兼執行長麥克阿姆斯壯 (Mac Armstrong)。此外，我們的總裁喬恩·克里斯蒂安森 (Jon Christianson) 也將在電話會議的問答環節回答問題。

As a reminder, a telephonic replay of this call will be available on the Investor Relations section of our website through 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 13, 2025.

提醒一下，本次電話會議的電話重播將於 2025 年 5 月 13 日美國東部時間晚上 11:59 之前在我們網站的投資者關係部分提供。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that this call may contain certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include remarks about management's future expectations, beliefs, estimates, plans and prospects.

在我們開始之前，請容我提醒大家，本次電話會議可能包含某些構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義前瞻性陳述的陳述。其中包括對管理層未來期望、信念、估計、計劃和前景的評論。

Such statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated or implied by such statements. Such risks and other factors are set forth in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

此類聲明受各種風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類聲明所顯示或暗示的結果有重大差異。此類風險和其他因素已在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表季度報告中列出。

We do not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements. Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP measures, which we believe are useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with US GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release.

我們不承擔更新此類前瞻性陳述的任何義務。此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則指標，我們認為這些指標有助於評估我們的表現。不應孤立地考慮這些附加資訊的呈現，也不應將其視為根據美國公認會計準則編制的結果的替代。在我們的收益報告中可以找到這些非 GAAP 指標與最可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳。

At this point, I'll turn the call over to Mac.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Mac。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning. I'm very pleased with our strong start to 2025 as our first quarter saw sustained gross written premium growth and record adjusted net income. The quarter featured 85% adjusted net income growth, a 69% adjusted combined ratio and a 27% adjusted ROE. Our results demonstrate the continued execution of the Palomar 2X strategic imperative as well as concerted efforts to build a leading specialty insurance franchise with a resilient and diversified portfolio.

謝謝你，克里斯，早安。我對我們 2025 年的強勁開局感到非常高興，因為我們第一季實現了持續的毛承保保費增長和創紀錄的調整後淨收入。本季調整後淨收入成長 85%，調整後綜合成本率成長 69%，調整後股本回報率成長 27%。我們的結果表明，Palomar 2X 策略目標將繼續得到執行，同時公司將齊心協力打造一家擁有彈性和多元化投資組合的領先專業保險特許經營公司。

Our 20% gross written premium growth was driven by both new products like Crop and Casualty as well as our balanced mix of residential and commercial property products. Importantly, our same-store premium growth rate was 37%, demonstrating the strong underlying momentum that exists across our portfolio of specialty products. Beyond our financial performance, we remain focused on executing 2025 strategic imperatives.

我們的毛保費成長 20% 是由農作物和意外險等新產品以及住宅和商業地產產品的均衡組合所推動的。重要的是，我們的同店保費成長率為 37%，這表明我們的特色產品組合具有強勁的潛在發展勢頭。除了財務表現之外，我們仍專注於執行 2025 年策略要務。

The first is integrate and operate. During the quarter, we further monetized the investments made in 2024 and prior. These efforts were highlighted by the successful onboarding of our new teammates at First Indemnity of America.

一是整合營運。本季度，我們進一步將 2024 年及之前的投資貨幣化。這些努力因我們的新隊友在美國第一賠償保險公司的成功入職而得到突出。

A key component to the long-term surety strategy is the receipt of a T-Listing, and I'm pleased to report that FIA achieved this in the quarter. We also closed the previously announced acquisition of Advanced AgProtection on April 1 and began integrating their operations and talent into our Crop business. The second imperative is build new market leaders deliberately.

長期擔保策略的關鍵組成部分是獲得 T 上市，我很高興地報告 FIA 在本季度實現了這一目標。我們也於 4 月 1 日完成了先前宣布的 Advanced AgProtection 的收購，並開始將其營運和人才整合到我們的作物業務中。第二個要務是刻意打造新的市場領導者。

The strong growth of the casualty franchise in the quarter demonstrated traction on this initiative as we continue to deliver very strong growth while maintaining modest net line sizes. Our Crop franchise also showed solid growth in what is typically a lighter production quarter, supported by expanded geographic reach and new distribution channels.

本季意外險特許經營的強勁增長證明了這一舉措的推動力，因為我們繼續實現非常強勁的增長，同時保持適度的淨額規模。在擴大地理覆蓋範圍和建立新的分銷管道的支持下，我們的作物特許經營業務在通常產量較低的季度也表現出穩健的成長。

The third imperative is remembering what we like and more importantly, what we don't like. Our commitment to a conservative and well-defined risk appetite in the property market not only illustrates our focus on this initiative, but also is delivering profitable growth. We are not chasing premium in volatile property segments like wildfire exposed homeowners or Commercial All Risk where our risk-adjusted return targets are not achievable. Instead, we are increasing resource allocation to Residential Earthquake, Hawaii Hurricane and Residential Builder's Risk Products as market conditions shift. Fourth imperative is continue to generate consistent earnings and the cornerstone of Palomar 2X.

第三個要務是記住我們喜歡什麼，更重要的是，我們不喜歡什麼。我們對房地產市場保守且明確的風險偏好的承諾不僅表明了我們對這一舉措的關注，而且還帶來了盈利性增長。我們不會在波動較大的房地產領域（例如遭受野火侵襲的房屋保險或商業全險）追求溢價，因為在這些領域我們的風險調整回報目標無法實現。相反，隨著市場狀況的變化，我們正在增加對住宅地震、夏威夷颶風和住宅建築商風險產品的資源配置。第四個要務是繼續創造穩定的收益和 Palomar 2X 的基石。

Beyond the record adjusted net income of $51.3 million in the quarter, we beat earnings for the 10th straight time, a testament to the strength and increasing predictability of our earnings model. As market dynamics continue to shift, our diverse portfolio of residential and commercial products and disciplined capital allocation strategy enable us to maximize risk-adjusted returns.

除了本季創紀錄的 5,130 萬美元調整後淨收入外，我們還連續第 10 次超出預期，證明了我們的盈利模式的強勁和可預測性的提高。隨著市場動態的不斷變化，我們多樣化的住宅和商業產品組合以及嚴謹的資本配置策略使我們能夠最大化風險調整後的回報。

Before I offer commentary on our five product categories, I'd like to address global economic uncertainty and specifically our view of the impact of tariffs on our business. The insurance business is a defensive sector that is less impacted by tariffs than most other industries, and Palomar is no different than its peers in that regard.

在就我們的五大產品類別發表評論之前，我想先談談全球經濟的不確定性，特別是我們對關稅對我們業務影響的看法。保險業務屬於防禦性產業，受關稅的影響比大多數其他產業小，Palomar 在這方面與其他同業並無二致。

However, we are vigilantly monitoring the prospective impact of tariffs across our portfolio and our exposure base. We recognize that elevated tariffs and the associated cost of materials will potentially increase severity across certain short-tail property products in our book of business, both residential and commercial. As it pertains to crop, we continue to closely monitor prices of soybeans and corn relative to the 2025 crop year prices set by the federal government in February.

然而，我們正密切關注關稅對我們投資組合和風險敞口的潛在影響。我們認識到，關稅上調及其相關的材料成本可能會加劇我們業務中某些短尾房地產產品（包括住宅和商業產品）的嚴重影響。就農作物而言，我們將繼續密切關注大豆和玉米的價格，並參考聯邦政府 2 月設定的 2025 年農作物年度價格。

At current levels, there should be minimal disruption caused by the tariffs. Yield will and always will have a greater impact on the performance of the crop book. And as such, we continue to focus on yield and employing the risk transfer tools we have to cover the risk associated with swings in yield and price.

在目前的水平下，關稅造成的干擾應該很小。產量將始終對農作物帳簿的表現產生更大的影響。因此，我們繼續關注收益率並利用風險轉移工具來彌補收益率和價格波動帶來的風險。

As it pertains to the casualty book, our limited auto exposure, physical damage and liability alike limits the exposure to tariffs. We believe our casualty book is insulated. A recession and an economic slowdown would have a greater impact on our product portfolio, Property, Casualty and Crop alike in the near term than that of tariffs.

就傷亡險而言，我們有限的汽車風險、物理損害和責任同樣限制了關稅風險。我們相信我們的傷亡記錄是安全的。與關稅相比，經濟衰退和經濟放緩在短期內對我們的產品組合（財產保險、意外險和農作物險）的影響將更大。

A slowdown will reduce exposures in multiple fashions such as project delays for homebuilders, reduced labor on construction projects and lower revenue in real estate brokerages and thereby have a derivative effect on premium, premium retention and loss severity. Consistent with our history, we will assess our book performance and incorporate the changes to loss cost and pricing for each line of business we write.

經濟放緩將以多種方式減少風險敞口，例如房屋建築商的專案延期、建築專案勞動力減少以及房地產經紀業務收入下降，從而對保費、保費留存和損失嚴重程度產生衍生影響。與我們的歷史一致，我們將評估我們的帳面業績，並納入我們所從事的每項業務的損失成本和定價的變化。

But we take considerable sauce in the diversity of our portfolio and the numerous vectors that will help sustain our profitable growth trajectory. This quarter, more than perhaps any other demonstrated the value of the diversity of our portfolio.

但我們在投資組合的多樣性和眾多載體方面投入了相當大的精力，這將有助於維持我們的獲利成長軌跡。本季可能比其他任何季度都更能體現我們投資組合多元化的價值。

Beyond the five product categories and the numerous products embedded in them, our portfolio consists of a broad mix of admitted and E&S risks as well as residential, small commercial and large commercial accounts.

除了五大產品類別及其包含的眾多產品之外，我們的投資組合還包括廣泛的已承認風險和 E&S 風險以及住宅、小型商業和大型商業帳戶。

As discussed in the past, this diversification affords us a unique ability to navigate the P&C market cycle. Turning to first quarter performance of our core earthquake franchise; we delivered strong results with gross written premium of 23% year-over-year.

正如過去所討論的，這種多樣化使我們擁有了駕馭財產險和意外險市場週期的獨特能力。談到我們核心地震業務第一季的業績；我們取得了強勁的業績，毛承保保費年增 23%。

This growth underscores the strength of our well-diversified earthquake portfolio across residential, small commercial and large commercial product offerings. In the first quarter, we wrote record new business in our Residential segment, which comprises 57% of our in-force earthquake premium. We continue to see stable policy retention and benefit from a 10% inflation guard that has not come under pressure despite the rising cost of homeowners insurance in California.

這一成長凸顯了我們在住宅、小型商業和大型商業產品領域多元化地震產品組合的實力。第一季度，我們的住宅保險業務創下了新業務記錄，占我們有效地震保費的 57%。我們繼續看到穩定的保單保留率，並受益於 10% 的通膨保護，儘管加州房屋保險成本上漲，但通膨保護並未受到壓力。

Additionally, new carrier partnerships remain a nice source of new business. The Palisades and Eaton wildfires, along with smaller events like the recent earthquake in a remote part of San Diego, heightened awareness of natural disasters and the need for insurance, driving sustained demand for earthquake coverage.

此外，新的營運商合作夥伴關係仍然是新業務的良好來源。帕利塞茲和伊頓的野火，以及最近在聖地牙哥偏遠地區發生的地震等較小的災害，提高了人們對自然災害和保險需求的認識，推動了對地震保險的持續需求。

While we are seeing pressure in rate on commercial accounts, it is worth noting that our small commercial book, which constitutes approximately 14% of the earthquake book, remains more insulated from competition than large layered and shared accounts. Small commercial accounts saw rate decreases of approximately 5% in the quarter.

雖然我們看到商業帳戶的利率面臨壓力，但值得注意的是，我們的小型商業帳戶（約佔地震帳戶的 14%）比大型分層和共享帳戶更能抵禦競爭。本季小型商業帳戶利率下降了約 5%。

The large commercial market has experienced more pronounced softening and increased competition with rate decreases of 7.5% as new capacity enters a segment that has fewer barriers to entry than our Residential and Small Commercial Earthquake businesses. We remain confident in achieving mid- to high teens earthquake premium growth for the full year of 2025. Our Inland Marine and Other Property category grew 29% year-over-year.

由於新容量進入的領域比我們的住宅和小型商業地震業務的進入門檻更低，大型商業市場經歷了更明顯的疲軟和競爭加劇，費率下降了 7.5%。我們仍然有信心在 2025 年全年實現中高水準的地震保費成長。我們的內陸航運和其他財產類別年增了 29%。

Like the Earthquake portfolio, we benefit from a well-diversified mix of residential and commercial lines, which enables us to adapt quickly to shifting market dynamics, particularly as large commercial property lines face increased competition. Also, like our earthquake book, we saw strong contributions from our residential lines of business.

與地震投資組合一樣，我們受益於多元化的住宅和商業線路組合，這使我們能夠快速適應不斷變化的市場動態，特別是在大型商業房地產線路面臨日益激烈的競爭的情況下。此外，就像我們的地震書籍一樣，我們看到住宅業務線做出了巨大貢獻。

Notably, Hawaiian hurricane grew 82% as La Lima was able to write new business and renew policies at rates 26% higher than last year. Additionally, our high-value builders risk book saw very strong growth as we expanded our geographic reach and leverage an attractive reinsurance structure that increased our capacity. Our small commercial focused builders' risk products that ensure middle market regional homebuilders saw the technical rate stay flat year-over-year.

值得注意的是，夏威夷颶風保險成長了 82%，因為 La Lima 能夠以比去年高出 26% 的價格開展新業務並續簽保單。此外，隨著我們擴大地理覆蓋範圍並利用有吸引力的再保險結構來提高我們的承保能力，我們的高價值建築商風險帳簿實現了非常強勁的成長。我們專注於小型商業的建築商風險產品確保中型市場區域住宅建築商的技術費率較去年同期保持穩定。

The excess national property and E&S builders' risk product teams are facing pricing pressure from increased competition and a softening market as those two products tend to participate in large layered and shared policies where there are new entrants or existing players looking to take more risk. Commercial All Risk is where the rate pressure is the greatest with most renewals down mid-teens.

過多的國家財產和 E&S 建築商風險產品團隊正面臨著競爭加劇和市場疲軟帶來的定價壓力，因為這兩種產品往往參與大型分層和共享政策，而這些政策中存在著新進入者或現有參與者希望承擔更多風險的情況。商業全險的費率壓力最大，續保費率多下降至十幾歲左右。

As such, we have all but exited that line and in turn meaningfully reduced our Continental Hurricane PML. Casualty gross written premium grew 113% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across general liability, E&S casualty, real estate E&O and environmental liability. Recent investments in talent and systems have accelerated premium growth while enabling us to effectively scale and service the business.

因此，我們幾乎已經退出了那條線，從而顯著減少了我們的大陸颶風 PML。意外險毛承保保費年增 113%，這得益於一般責任險、環境與社會意外險、房地產意外險和環境責任險的強勁表現。最近對人才和系統的投資加速了保費成長，同時使我們能夠有效地擴展和服務業務。

Under David Sapia's leadership, the E&S Casualty team is capitalizing on market dislocation and rising rates on average 11% while maintaining disciplined underwriting and low net limits. In the quarter, the average net limit was $913,000 after the utilization of quota share and facultative reinsurance. The Environmental Liability team continues to benefit from a consistent healthy rate dynamic with increases of approximately 5% as we add talent and expand the distribution network of the product.

在 David Sapia 的領導下，E&S Casualty 團隊充分利用了市場混亂和平均 11% 的利率上漲，同時保持了嚴格的承保和較低的淨限額。本季度，利用配額分攤和臨時再保險後，平均淨限額為 913,000 美元。隨著我們增加人才並擴大產品分銷網絡，環境責任團隊繼續受益於持續健康的費率動態，費率成長約 5%。

Our professional lines products saw rates plateau this quarter, but the growth opportunities are several, whether it is our successful expansion of real estate E&O beyond California or hiring seasoned underwriters to enhance our miscellaneous E&O practice. We are hiring exceptional professionals across the casualty portfolio and are confident they will sustain our profitable growth.

本季度，我們的專業險產品的費率趨於平穩，但仍存在多種增長機會，無論是成功將房地產 E&O 擴展到加州以外，還是聘請經驗豐富的承銷商來增強我們的雜項 E&O 業務。我們正在為整個意外險組合招募優秀的專業人員，並相信他們將維持我們的獲利成長。

We will remain disciplined on attachment points, net lines and keep technical rate increases above loss costs. Surety, the newest addition to our casualty portfolio is off to a promising start as we integrate FIA and establish our presence in the market. As I mentioned, on April 1, FIA secured a key listing from the US Treasury. This will catalyze geographic expansion, the attraction of top talent and the use of our balance sheet to offer larger limits and retain more risk.

我們將嚴格控制連接點和網路線，並將技術費率的成長保持在損失成本之上。保證金是我們意外險產品組合中的最新成員，隨著我們整合 FIA 並在市場上確立地位，保證金業務取得了良好的開端。正如我所提到的，4 月 1 日，FIA 獲得了美國財政部的關鍵上市資格。這將促進地理擴張、吸引頂尖人才以及利用我們的資產負債表提供更大的限額並承擔更多的風險。

We're off to a nice start in constructing a Surety franchise that will generate $100 million of written premium over time. While contributions in 2025 will be modest, we see surety as a meaningful long-term growth opportunity.

我們在建立保證金特許經營權方面已經有了良好的開端，隨著時間的推移，這將產生 1 億美元的承保保費收入。儘管 2025 年的貢獻將會很小，但我們認為保證金是一個有意義的長期成長機會。

Turning to our Fronting business; premiums declined 42% year-over-year due to the ongoing headwind from Omaha National. This quarter represents the peak impact of the runoff of that partnership. This premium growth headwind will run its course by the end of the third quarter.

談到我們的前端業務；由於奧馬哈國家保險公司持續的逆風，保費年減了 42%。本季度是該合作關係終止的影響達到頂峰的階段。這一高端成長逆風將在第三季末結束。

Looking ahead, we will continue to add partners selectively, but Fronting is not our highest strategic priority currently. On the other hand, our Crop franchise generated $48 million of written premium during the first quarter, an increase of 25% year-over-year. Given the seasonal nature of our products, the first quarter premium opportunities are limited and even more so in the second quarter when we expect to book less than 10% of our annual production.

展望未來，我們將繼續有選擇地增加合作夥伴，但目前前沿並不是我們的最高策略重點。另一方面，我們的農作物特許經營權在第一季產生了 4,800 萬美元的承保保費，年增 25%。鑑於我們產品的季節性，第一季的溢價機會有限，而第二季的溢價機會則更少，因為我們預計第二季的訂單量將不到年產量的 10%。

We are pleased to generate strong production while maintaining a balanced mix of business in the states we find attractive. Additionally, we made considerable investments in talent during the quarter that will lead to strong production in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

我們很高興能夠在我們認為有吸引力的州保持業務均衡組合的同時實現強勁生產。此外，我們在本季度對人才進行了大量投資，這將帶來 2025 年第三季和第四季的強勁生產。

We continue to expand the franchise, having added experienced teams in Illinois, Kansas and the Dakotas to further extend our geographic reach. Importantly, with the spring sales season behind us, we remain on track to meet or exceed our $200 million full year target. Separately, the previously announced acquisition of Advanced AgProtection closed in April.

我們繼續擴大特許經營權，在伊利諾伊州、堪薩斯州和達科他州增加了經驗豐富的團隊，以進一步擴大我們的地理覆蓋範圍。重要的是，隨著春季銷售旺季的過去，我們仍有望達到或超過 2 億美元的全年目標。另外，先前宣布的 Advanced AgProtection 的收購已於 4 月完成。

Bringing the Advanced Ag team in-house allows us to accelerate and increase the crop market opportunity as it provides scale to our business from a claims handling, servicing and sales and technology standpoint. This increased scale will also enable Palomar to recruit more top-tier talent.

將 Advanced Ag 團隊引入公司內部使我們能夠加速和增加作物市場機會，因為它從索賠處理、服務、銷售和技術的角度為我們的業務提供了規模。規模的擴大也將使 Palomar 能夠招募更多頂尖人才。

Importantly, we now have a larger foundation to execute our plan of building an industry-leading Crop business, which I believe will surpass $500 million of premium in the intermediate future and $1 billion of premium over the long term.

重要的是，我們現在擁有更大的基礎來執行打造行業領先的作物業務的計劃，我相信在中期，該業務的保費將超過 5 億美元，長期保費將超過 10 億美元。

Turning to Reinsurance; the fourth quarter was active across the organization with a particular focus on the core excess of loss program that incepts on June 1, 2025. ILS securities and cat bonds specifically are a key component of the core excess of loss program. We are pleased to secure $525 million of earthquake limit through our sixth and largest Torrey Pines Re catastrophe bond issuance, exceeding our $425 million target and pricing at the lower end of the indicated range. The cat bond pricing was approximately 15% down on a risk-adjusted basis.

談到再保險，第四季度整個組織都很活躍，特別關注 2025 年 6 月 1 日開始實施的核心超額損失計劃。ILS 證券和巨災債券是核心超額損失計畫的關鍵組成部分。我們很高興透過第六次也是最大的一次 Torrey Pines Re 巨災債券發行獲得了 5.25 億美元的地震限額，超過了我們 4.25 億美元的目標，並且定價處於指示範圍的低端。巨災債券定價按風險調整後下降了約 15%。

Additionally, we placed a new La Lima excess of loss treaty effective June 1 for our Hawaii hurricane business. This coverage was previously part of our core June 1 program, which now is over 95% earthquake only, creating a more attractive structure for reinsurers.

此外，我們針對夏威夷颶風業務簽訂了新的《拉利馬超額損失條約》，該條約將於 6 月 1 日起生效。此保險以前是我們 6 月 1 日核心計劃的一部分，現在該計劃 95% 以上的承保範圍僅限於地震，從而為再保險公司創造了更具吸引力的結構。

The Hawaii treaty also priced at a level favorable to our projections. The successful placements of the cat bond and the La Lima treaty will position us to achieve, if not exceed, our original guidance level of flat to down 5%. Beyond the core excess of loss program, we renewed our May 1 builders' risk quota share treaty with increased capacity and improved economics, reflecting strong reinsurance support and confidence in our underwriting strategy.

夏威夷條約的定價也符合我們的預測。巨災債券和《拉利馬條約》的成功發行將使我們能夠實現（甚至超過）我們最初的指導水平，即持平或下降 5%。除了核心的超額損失計劃之外，我們還續簽了 5 月 1 日的建築商風險配額分擔條約，增加了承保能力並改善了經濟效益，這反映了強有力的再保險支持和對我們承保策略的信心。

The added capacity enhances our ability to expand the builders' risk portfolio, pursue larger opportunities and strengthen broker relationships in a profitable segment. We also extended our April 1 casualty quota share to October 1 to better align and increase optionality with our broader casualty reinsurance program. As we rapidly grow Palomar, we've continued investing in top talent across the organization.

增加的產能增強了我們擴大建築商風險組合、尋求更大機會和加強盈利領域經紀人關係的能力。我們還將 4 月 1 日的傷亡配額份額延長至 10 月 1 日，以便更好地與我們更廣泛的傷亡再保險計劃保持一致並增加可選性。隨著 Palomar 的快速發展，我們繼續在整個組織中投資頂尖​​人才。

During the quarter, we made key hires in our underwriting, claims, data and technology and actuarial departments. I'm pleased to highlight Tim O'Donovan, who joins us after over 20 years at Goldman Sachs as EVP of Investments. He will lead the management of our growing and maturing investment portfolio, elevating our strategy, sophistication and ultimately our investment income.

本季度，我們在承保、索賠、數據和技術以及精算部門進行了關鍵招聘。我很高興地向大家介紹蒂姆·奧多諾萬 (Tim O'Donovan)，他在高盛擔任投資執行副總裁 20 多年後加入我們。他將領導我們不斷成長和成熟的投資組合的管理，提升我們的策略、成熟度並最終提高我們的投資收益。

As highlighted at our March Investor Day, I remain humbled by the exceptional talent we have and are attracting. They amplify my confidence that Palomar is becoming an industry-leading specialty insurer. On the heels of the strong start to the year, we are raising our full year 2025 adjusted net income guidance to a range of $186 million to $200 million from our previous range of $180 million to $192 million. The midpoint of our guidance implies an adjusted ROE of 23% and puts us in a position to double the adjusted net income of the 2022 Palomar 2X cohort in three years and moreover, our 2023 2x cohort in an impressive two-year time frame.

正如我們在三月投資者日所強調的那樣，我仍然對我們擁有和正在吸引的傑出人才感到謙卑。它們增強了我的信心，我相信 Palomar 將成為業界領先的專業保險公司。在今年強勁開局的基礎上，我們將 2025 年全年調整後淨收入預期從先前的 1.8 億美元至 1.92 億美元上調至 1.86 億美元至 2 億美元。我們的指導中點意味著調整後的 ROE 為 23%，這使我們能夠在三年內將 2022 年 Palomar 2X 隊列的調整後淨收入翻一番，而且，在令人印象深刻的兩年時間內將 2023 年 2x 隊列的調整後淨收入翻一番。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris to discuss our financial results and guidance assumptions in more detail.

接下來，我將把電話轉給克里斯，更詳細地討論我們的財務結果和指導假設。

Thank you, Mac. Please note that during my portion, referring to any per share figure, I'm referring to per diluted common shares calculated using the treasury stock method. This methodology requires us to include common share equivalents such as outstanding stock options during profitable periods and exclude them in periods where we incur a net loss. For the first quarter of 2025, our adjusted net income grew 85% to $51.3 million or $1.87 per share compared to adjusted net income of $27.8 million or $1.09 per share for the same quarter of 2024. Our first quarter adjusted underwriting income was $51.6 million compared to $29.2 million for the same quarter last year.

謝謝你，麥克。請注意，在我的部分中，提到任何每股數字，我指的是使用庫存股方法計算的每股稀釋普通股。此方法要求我們在獲利期間納入普通股等價物，例如未償還的股票選擇權，而在發生淨虧損的期間則將其排除。2025 年第一季度，我們的調整後淨收入成長 85% 至 5,130 萬美元或每股 1.87 美元，而 2024 年同期的調整後淨收入為 2,780 萬美元或每股 1.09 美元。我們第一季的調整後承保收入為 5,160 萬美元，而去年同期為 2,920 萬美元。

Our adjusted combined ratio was 68.5% for the first quarter compared to 73% in the first quarter of 2024. Excluding catastrophes, our adjusted combined ratio was 68.9% for the quarter compared to 69.8% last year. For the first quarter of 2025, our annualized adjusted return on equity was 27% compared to 22.9% for the same period last year. As a reminder, we do not expect the capital raised in the third quarter of 2024 to be fully deployed until the end of 2025.

我們第一季的調整後綜合比率為 68.5%，而 2024 年第一季為 73%。不包括災難損失，本季我們的調整後綜合比率為 68.9%，去年同期為 69.8%。2025 年第一季度，我們的年化調整後股本回報率為 27%，而去年同期為 22.9%。提醒一下，我們預計 2024 年第三季籌集的資金要到 2025 年底才能全部部署完畢。

Our first quarter results continue to demonstrate our ability to achieve our Palomar 2X objective of doubling adjusted net income within an intermediate timeframe of three to five years while maintaining an ROE above 20%.

我們第一季的業績繼續證明我們有能力實現 Palomar 2X 目標，在三到五年的中期時間內將調整後的淨收入翻一番，同時將 ROE 保持在 20% 以上。

Gross written premiums for the first quarter were $442.2 million, an increase of 20% compared to the prior year's first quarter, 37% growth when excluding runoff business. As previously mentioned, this runoff business will add a $44 million headwind in the second quarter. Additionally, the second quarter is only expected to have modest crop written premium. Net earned premiums for the first quarter were $164.1 million, an increase of 52% compared to the prior year's first quarter.

第一季毛承保保費為 4.422 億美元，比去年同期成長 20%，若不包括流失業務則成長 37%。如前所述，這項業務流失將為第二季帶來 4,400 萬美元的不利影響。此外，第二季農作物承保保費預計僅會適度增長。第一季淨賺保費為 1.641 億美元，比去年同期成長 52%。

Our ratio of net earned premiums as a percentage of gross earned premiums was 43.7% as compared to 35.6% in the first quarter of 2024 and compared sequentially to 39% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The year-over-year increase in this ratio is reflective of improved excess of loss reinsurance and of higher growth rates of our non-fronting lines of business, including earthquake that see less premium.

我們的淨賺保費佔總賺保費的比率為 43.7%，而 2024 年第一季為 35.6%，季減 2024 年第四季為 39%。這一比率的同比增長反映了超額損失再保險的改善以及我們的非正面業務線（包括保費較低的地震）的增長率提高。

With the timing of our core excess of loss reinsurance program renewal and the majority of our crop premiums written and earned during the third quarter, we continue to expect the third quarter to be the low point of our net earned premium ratio, increasing throughout the remainder of the reinsurance treaty year in a similar pattern to last year.

由於我們的核心超額損失再保險計劃續保的時間以及我們在第三季度承保和賺取的大部分農作物保費，我們繼續預計第三季度將成為我們的淨保費收入比率的最低點，並在再保險合約年度的剩餘時間內以與去年類似的模式增長。

While we expect quarterly seasonality in our net earned premium ratio, we continue to expect net earned premium growth over a 12-month period of time. We expect our net earned premium ratio to be around 40% for the year. Losses and loss adjustment expenses for the first quarter were $38.7 million, comprised of $39.2 million of non-catastrophe attritional losses, offset by $0.5 million of favorable development on prior year catastrophe events.

雖然我們預期淨賺保費比率會受到季度季節性的影響，但我們仍然預計 12 個月內淨賺保費將會成長。我們預計今年的淨保費收入比率將在40%左右。第一季的損失和損失調整費用為 3,870 萬美元，其中包括 3,920 萬美元的非災難性損耗損失，抵消了去年災難事件帶來的 50 萬美元的有利發展。

The loss ratio for the quarter was 23.6%, made up of an attritional loss ratio of 23.9% and a catastrophe loss ratio of negative 0.3%. Additionally the attritional results include $3.9 million of favorable development primarily from our inland marine and other property business as we continue to hold conservative positions on our casualty reserves.

本季的損失率為 23.6%，其中自然減損率為 23.9%，巨災損失率為 -0.3%。此外，由於我們繼續對傷亡儲備採取保守立場，因此減員結果還包括 390 萬美元的有利發展，主要來自我們的內陸海運和其他財產業務。

Our results reinforce our approach to the use of reinsurance and our conservative approach to reserving. For the year, we expect our loss ratio to be in the low 30s. Our acquisition expense as a percentage of gross earned premium for the first quarter was 12.3% compared to 10.5% in last year's first quarter and 10.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們的結果強化了我們使用再保險的方法和保守的準備金方法。我們預計今年的損失率將在 30% 以下。我們第一季的收購費用佔總保費收入的百分比為 12.3%，而去年第一季為 10.5%，2024 年第四季為 10.9%。

This percentage increased as our book of business continues to diversify and aligns with higher net acquisition expense. For the year, we expect this ratio to be similar to last year, around 11%. The ratio of other underwriting expenses, including adjustments to gross earned premiums for the first quarter was 7.5% compared to 6.8% in the first quarter last year and compared to 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

隨著我們的業務範圍不斷多樣化並與更高的淨收購費用保持一致，這一百分比有所增加。我們預計今年這一比例將與去年相似，約為 11%。第一季其他承保費用（包括毛已賺保費的調整）的比例為 7.5%，而去年第一季為 6.8%，2024 年第四季為 7.2%。

As demonstrated by our hires over the last year and in the first quarter, we are committed to investing across our organization as we continue to grow profitably. As announced, we continue to invest in our crop organization with the acquisition of Advanced AgProtection to begin in the second quarter.

正如我們去年和第一季的招聘所表明的那樣，我們致力於在整個組織內進行投資，以繼續實現盈利增長。正如所宣布的，我們將繼續投資於我們的作物組織，並將於第二季開始收購 Advanced AgProtection。

We expect long-term scale in this ratio, although we may see periods of sequential flatness or increases due to investments in scaling the organization within our Palomar 2X framework. Based on the organizational investments made, I expect this ratio to increase in the second quarter and be higher for the year overall compared to last year. We expect this ratio to be around 8% for the year. Our net investment income for the first quarter was $12.1 million, an increase of 69.1% compared to the prior year's first quarter. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to higher yields on invested assets and a higher average balance of investments held due to cash generated from operations and the August 2024 capital raise.

我們預計這一比例將長期保持擴大，儘管我們可能會看到一段時間的連續持平或成長，這是由於我們在 Palomar 2X 框架內擴大組織規模的投資所致。根據組織所做的投資，我預計這一比例將在第二季增加，並且全年的比例將高於去年。我們預計今年這一比例將在8%左右。我們第一季的淨投資收益為 1,210 萬美元，比去年同期成長 69.1%。年比成長主要由於投資資產收益率提高、經營活動產生的現金流量和 2024 年 8 月的融資導致持有投資的平均餘額增加。

Our yield in the first quarter was 4.6% compared to 4.2% in the first quarter last year. The average yield on investments made in the first quarter continues to be above 5%. We continue to conservatively allocate our position to asset classes that generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. At the end of the quarter, our net written premium to equity ratio was 0.91:1. Our stockholders' equity has reached $790 million, a testament to consistent profitable growth and the capital raise.

我們第一季的收益率為 4.6%，而去年第一季的收益率為 4.2%。第一季投資平均報酬率持續維持在5%以上。我們繼續保守地將我們的頭寸分配給產生有吸引力的風險調整回報的資產類別。截至本季末，我們的淨承保保費與股東權益比率為0.91:1。我們的股東權益已達到7.9億美元，證明了持續的獲利成長和資本的增加。

I would like to make a brief comment on our business from a modeling perspective for the third quarter in addition to our expectations mentioned earlier in my remarks. The third quarter will continue to stand out based on our crop participation increasing to 30%, crops growth and seasonal earnings pattern and the first full quarter of our excess of loss reinsurance placed June 1.

除了我之前在發言中提到的預期之外，我還想從模型的角度對我們的第三季業務做一個簡短的評論。由於我們的農作物參與率增加到 30%，農作物生長和季節性收益模式以及 6 月 1 日投保的超額損失再保險的第一個完整季度，第三季度將繼續脫穎而出。

For the third quarter, we expect the following: we expect the highest gross earned and net earned premium dollars with the lowest net earned premium ratio. We expect the highest loss dollars and highest loss ratio. And we expect our acquisition expense and adjusted other operating expense dollars to continue to be in line with growth expectations, but with the lowest gross earned premium ratio for the year.

對於第三季度，我們預計：我們預計總保費收入和淨保費收入將達到最高，而淨保費收入比率將達到最低。我們預計損失金額和損失率將達到最高。我們預計，我們的收購費用和調整後的其他營運費用將繼續符合成長預期，但今年的毛保費收入比率將達到最低。

Overall, we expect the combined ratio to be in the mid- to upper 70s, including catastrophe losses. The apex of our combined ratio will be in the third quarter, primarily due to crop. Turning to guidance; we are raising our full year 2025 adjusted net income guidance to a range of $186 million to $200 million from the previous range of $180 million to $190 million.

總體而言，我們預計包括巨災損失在內的綜合比率將在 70% 左右。我們的綜合比率的頂點將出現在第三季度，這主要歸因於農作物的生長。談到指引；我們將 2025 年全年調整後淨收入指引從先前的 1.8 億美元至 1.9 億美元上調至 1.86 億美元至 2 億美元。

Our guidance includes $8 million to $12 million of additional catastrophe losses as well as mini cat losses that we have historically included in our guidance and reflects reinsurance savings realized to-date, but continues to assume that a core six or one excess of loss reinsurance treaty renews at a risk-adjusted rate of flat to down 5% from the expiring 2024 treaty.

我們的指導包括 800 萬至 1200 萬美元的額外巨災損失以及我們歷來包含在指導中的小型巨災損失，並反映了迄今為止實現的再保險節省，但繼續假設核心六個或一個超額損失再保險合約以風險調整後的利率續保，與即將到期的 2024 年合約持平或下降 5%。

Lastly, not only does the midpoint of our guidance imply an adjusted ROE above 20%, but also puts us in a position to double our 2022 adjusted net income in three years and double our 2023 adjusted net income in just two years.

最後，我們指引的中點不僅意味著調整後的 ROE 超過 20%，而且還使我們能夠在三年內將 2022 年調整後的淨收入翻一番，並在短短兩年內將 2023 年調整後的淨收入翻一番。

With that, I'd like to ask the operator to open the line for any questions. Operator?

好了，我想請接線生開通熱線來解答您的任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. I had a question, Mac, I heard you talk about Torrey Pines renewed down 15%. I guess, is there any reason -- or I guess, can you help us think through the flat to down 5% that you're assuming in your outlook? And I guess, what would push that down 15%? I know that's ILS and different than the six or one renewal. But it seems like that's a fairly strong indication that things might come in a little bit better than you guys have expected. So just hoping you could talk a little bit about that.

嘿，謝謝。我有個問題，麥克，我聽說你談到 Torrey Pines 的續約價格下降了 15%。我想，有什麼原因嗎——或者我想，您能否幫助我們思考一下您在展望中假設的持平或下降 5% 的情況？我想，什麼會將這一數字降低 15% 呢？我知道那是 ILS，與六次或一次續約不同。但這似乎是一個相當強烈的跡象，表明事情可能會比你們預期的要好一些。所以只是希望您能稍微談論一下這個問題。

Yeah, Dave. Thanks for the question. It's a good one. And obviously, it's something that we're acutely focused on. You're absolutely right.

是的，戴夫。謝謝你的提問。這是個好主意。顯然，這是我們高度關注的事情。你說得完全正確。

All placements to-date have come in better than our forecast of flat to 5%. When we put the flat to 5%, we were still trying to assess the impact of the wildfires in Los Angeles on the global reinsurance market. What we've been able to execute has been superior to that flat to down 5%. And so as Chris mentioned, the guidance that we offered incorporates the cat bond being down 15%, La Lima being a little bit better than our projections. But then the rest of the core program being, call it, maybe 2.5% down at the midpoint or flat to down 5%.

到目前為止，所有配售情況均優於我們預測的持平至 5% 的水平。當我們將利率平至5%時，我們仍在試圖評估洛杉磯山火對全球再保險市場的影響。我們所能執行的已經優於持平或下降 5% 的情況。正如克里斯所提到的，我們提供的指引包括巨災債券下跌 15%，而拉利馬的表現略好於我們的預測。但核心計畫的其餘部分，中間值可能下降 2.5%，或持平或下降 5%。

There's conservatism there. I think we do feel very good about our ability to hit the low end of down 5%, but it's still a large quantum that needs to be placed. It's over $2 billion of earthquake limit and then another, call it, a couple of hundred million of -- excuse me, another $100 million of all perils limit. So long-winded way of saying a decent amount of conservatism in there. We do intend to put an update out following the closing of the placement around June 1, and we hope to outperform.

那裡有保守主義。我認為，我們確實對自己達到 5% 的低點的能力感到非常滿意，但這仍然是一個需要投入的大量資金。地震責任限額超過 20 億美元，另外還有，可以說幾億美元——不好意思，1 億美元的各種災害責任限額。如此冗長的方式表達了相當多的保守主義。我們確實打算在 6 月 1 日左右配售結束後發布最新消息，並希望能取得優異的成績。

Got it. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on that. Could you talk about the -- the thought process around splitting out La Lima separately and renewing that one separately from the core June 1 program?

知道了。然後也許只是對此進行快速跟進。您能否談談將 La Lima 單獨拆分出來並將其與 6 月 1 日的核心計劃分開續簽的想法過程？

Yeah, that's another good question. I think it stems ultimately from our desire for La Lima to be a true stand-alone entity that we are the attorney, in fact, manager for and where we are a true fee generator. And so while it's consolidated in the intermediate term, long term, it will be an independent entity that, again, we serve as the attorney and fact manager for where we do orchestrate the reinsurance and we're paid fees for the placement of the business and the administration of that business. So it's just part of a broad long-term strategy to have La Lima be a true independent entity. It also helps that Hawaii is an uncorrelated diversifying peril for catastrophe reinsurers.

是的，這又是一個好問題。我認為這最終源於我們希望 La Lima 成為一個真正的獨立實體，我們是其律師，事實上是其管理者，也是真正的費用產生者。因此，雖然從中期和長期來看它是合併的，但它將是一個獨立的實體，我們再次擔任其律師和事實經理，負責安排再保險，並為業務的安排和管理支付費用。因此，讓利馬成為一個真正獨立的實體只是長期策略的一部分。對於巨災再保險公司來說，夏威夷是一個不相關的多元化風險來源，這也有幫助。

So this actually gives reinsurers the ability actually to deploy more limit and not feel like they have to pick one versus the other.

因此，這實際上使再保險公司能夠部署更多的限額，而不必覺得他們必須在其中選擇一個。

Got it. That makes sense. And then maybe if I could just sneak one more in just on the 23% earthquake growth. So just between residential, it sounds like that came in a bit better, which is encouraging. You mentioned the record new business and heightened awareness following the fires.

知道了。這很有道理。然後，也許我可以再偷偷地談談 23% 的地震成長率。因此，僅在住宅方面，聽起來情況就好一些，這是令人鼓舞的。您提到了火災發生後創紀錄的新業務和增強的意識。

I guess, I'm hoping maybe you could talk more about both the residential side, what sort of growth you saw there as well as the commercial side, which sounds like that's sort of what's keeping you from expecting 20% premium growth there for the year. It sounds like that could be a drag that gets you to mid- to high teens.

我想，我希望您能更多地談論住宅方面，您在那裡看到了什麼樣的增長，以及商業方面，這聽起來就像是導致您無法預期今年保費增長率達到 20% 的原因。聽起來這可能會變成一種拖累，讓你陷入青少年時期。

Well, again, I think we feel very good about mid- to high teens. And the 23%, actually was pretty close between the two, between commercial and residential. It's just that in years past, commercial was growing 40%, 50% -- or yes, closer to 40%. So what I would say is we've always felt that having a balanced book of business between residential and commercial. But even if you go a level lower, residential, small commercial and large commercial will allow us to navigate market cycles and lean into residential when it's opportune and commercial when it's opportune.

好吧，我再說一次，我們認為我們對青少年中後期的情緒非常滿意。而 23% 這個數字實際上在商業和住宅之間相當接近。只是在過去幾年裡，商業成長了 40%、50%——或接近 40%。所以我想說的是，我們一直認為住宅和商業之間的業務應該保持平衡。但即使降低一個層次，住宅、小型商業和大型商業也能讓我們駕馭市場週期，並在適當的時候傾向於住宅，在適當的時候傾向於商業。

So this year, there is more pressure in kind of larger commercial layered and shared accounts where residential, there is continued tailwinds, whether it's the awareness, whether it's the CEA continuing to pull back coverage or they're participating in insurers, nonrenewing their homeowners books or new partnerships that Jon Christianson and our team have put in place. So I don't want to -- commercial is a harder market, but there's still opportunity for us to grow. The underlying unit level economics remain very compelling. If you compare commercial metrics like PML to premium and AAL to premium to where they were six years ago when we went public, it's meaningfully superior. So it's a balanced book, market conditions, we should be able to play through, and that's why we feel good about that kind of 20% growth.

因此，今年，大型商業分層和共享帳戶的壓力更大，而住宅帳戶則繼續保持順風勢頭，無論是意識增強，還是 CEA 繼續撤回保險，或者他們參與保險公司，不續簽房主保險，或者 Jon Christianson 和我們的團隊建立的新合作夥伴關係。所以我不想——商業是一個更難的市場，但我們仍然有成長的機會。底層單位層級的經濟效益仍然非常引人注目。如果將 PML 與優質產品和 AAL 與優質產品等商業指標與我們六年前上市時的水平進行比較，就會發現現在的水平明顯更高。因此，這是一本平衡的書，市場條件，我們應該能夠應對，這就是我們對 20% 的成長感到滿意的原因。

But Jon, chime in.

但是喬恩，請插嘴。

Yeah. Thanks, Dave. One thing I'd add is, particularly on the residential side, we had strong growth in the first quarter through the partnerships, but we also had really strong growth in organic new business. So regular kind of day-to-day production was up meaningfully year-over-year and then both on the admitted and the E&S side of the residential franchise. So it wasn't just one pocket of growth. It was kind of across the board in all segments.

是的。謝謝，戴夫。我想補充一點，特別是在住宅方面，我們在第一季透過合作夥伴關係實現了強勁增長，但我們的有機新業務也實現了強勁增長。因此，無論是住宅特許經營中的承認業務還是 E&S 業務，日常常規生產都較上年有顯著增長。所以這不僅僅是一個成長點。它涉及所有領域。

Understood. Great, thanks for clarifying that.

明白了。太好了，謝謝你澄清這一點。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you. In the PESIC, you had nice acceleration. When we think about the casualty book, I know you're ramping up. You've got some new hires and the new leadership. How much of that acceleration might have been -- or how would you describe the underlying market growth? Was it faster this quarter? Or was your ramp just more successful?

是的，謝謝。在 PESIC 中，你的加速度很好。當我們考慮傷亡記錄時，我知道你正在加緊努力。你們有一些新員工和新的領導。這種加速可能有多大——或者您如何描述潛在的市場成長？本季速度更快了嗎？還是你的坡道只是更成功？

Yes, Mark, I think I would say it was a little bit of both, right? So if I deconstruct it, we have new underwriters that have distribution followings that have a held book of business that came on in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. So they were able to catalyze growth across the casualty book, whether it was in real estate E&O, whether it was in environmental and certainly on the E&S casualty side, where David Sapia has brought on a handful of talent. So what that affords us is just breadth and coverage, the ability to service more policies, the ability to touch more distribution points. And then you have the fact that in the case of E&S casualty, the market is a bit -- it's a bit dislocated, right?

是的，馬克，我想說兩者都有一點，對吧？因此，如果我對其進行解構，我們會發現我們有新的承銷商，他們擁有分銷追隨者，並且在第四季度和第一季擁有業務記錄。因此，他們能夠促進意外險業務的成長，無論是房地產意外險和退休險，還是環境險，當然還有環境與社會意外險，David Sapia 為這些業務引進了一群人才。因此，這為我們提供了廣度和覆蓋範圍，服務更多政策的能力，接觸更多分銷點的能力。然後你會發現，在 E&S 災難的情況下，市場有點 - 有點混亂，對嗎？

So for us going in and providing a buffer layer short tight limit that's heavily reinsured like there's market need and appetite for that. So if we can bring more underwriters into -- under the tent that can offer that product to a broader distribution footprint, we're going to grow. And so I think that's really what it was. It was new underwriters, new distribution, broadening our reach and broadening our service capabilities. And that's going to continue this year.

因此，對我們來說，提供一個緩衝層，短期嚴格限制，這在很大程度上是再保險，就像市場對此的需求和興趣一樣。因此，如果我們能夠引入更多的承銷商，從而將產品提供給更廣泛的分銷範圍，我們就會成長。所以我認為事實確實如此。這是新的承銷商、新的分銷，擴大了我們的業務範圍並擴大了我們的服務能力。今年這種情況還會持續下去。

Chris, refresh me on the spread of crop premium from 3Q to 4Q. I think you said 10% in Q2. I think you said $50 million so far in Q1. Of the remainder, how does that spread between Q3 and Q4?

克里斯，請告訴我從第三季到第四季農作物溢價的差額。我認為您說的是第二季的 10%。我認為您說的是第一季到目前為止的金額為 5000 萬美元。其餘部分在 Q3 和 Q4 之間如何分佈？

Yes. I'm going to talk about it a little bit more on an earned premium basis, and we did have a table in the Investor Day deck that kind of breaks us out in that deck, we point out that in the third quarter and fourth quarter, we expect about 65% to 75% of the earned premium in Q3. We expect about 15% to 25% of the earned premium in Q4. So that crop premium, let's call it, that $200 million that Mac talked about is really weighted in the second half of the year, specifically -- more specifically Q3. So that is going to have a very dynamic impact on our overall ratios when you look at them from a gross earned premium standpoint.

是的。我將在已賺取溢價的基礎上對此進行更多討論，我們在投資者日演示文稿中確實有一個表格，其中對我們進行了分類，我們指出，在第三季度和第四季度，我們預計第三季度已賺取溢價的比例約為 65% 至 75%。我們預計第四季的保費收入將達到約 15% 至 25%。因此，麥克所說的 2 億美元農作物溢價實際上是在下半年，更具體地說是第三季產生的。因此，從總保費收入的角度來看，這將對我們的整體比率產生非常動態的影響。

The net earned premium ratio will probably be at the lowest point in the third quarter from that earned premium coming in. Similarly, our acquisition expense and other underwriting expense ratios will also be at their low point in that quarter. So overall, crop is changing, call it, the seasonality of our model, but it's not doing -- or it's -- overall, it's helping our business when you look at it on a 12-month period of time. So we're very happy with the way things look, but it is going to have a decent impact on how those ratios look. One other thing I'd point out about the crop business is when you look at our expenses, right, Mac talked about the fact that we did close the acquisition of Advanced Ag on April 1 of this year.

從已賺保費來看，淨已賺保費比率可能在第三季達到最低點。同樣，我們的收購費用和其他承銷費用率也將在該季度處於低點。因此，總體而言，農作物正在變化，可以稱之為我們模型的季節性，但從 12 個月的時間段來看，它並沒有——或者說——總體而言，它對我們的業務有幫助。所以我們對目前的情況非常滿意，但它將對這些比率產生相當大的影響。關於農作物業務，我想指出的另一件事是，當你查看我們的費用時，對吧，麥克談到我們確實在今年 4 月 1 日完成了對 Advanced Ag 的收購。

So that is going to add expenses in the second quarter without all the requisite revenue until the third quarter. So the expense ratio will probably be a little bit higher in the second quarter as we talked about, probably averaging out around 8%, a little bit higher than where we finished last year, but some of that's going to come in a little heavier in Q2, really because now we've got all that staff on board. Revenue is not really coming in until Q3. So it's something I want to point out for people to think about in their models as well. That's a little bit different than it had been in the past as well.

因此，這將增加第二季的支出，而所有必要的收入直到第三季才會出現。因此，正如我們所說的，第二季度的費用率可能會略高一些，平均約為 8%，略高於去年年底的水平，但第二季度的費用率會更高一些，因為現在我們已經將所有員工都安排到位了。收入直到第三季才真正開始顯現。所以我想指出這一點，讓人們也在他們的模型中思考。這與過去的情況也有些不同。

But overall, we're very happy with how things look and how things are going to play out throughout the year. But happy to give more color on Q3 and Q4 around crop. I feel like we put a lot of good information out there, especially in Investor Day deck. But if you have any other questions, happy to address them.

但總體而言，我們對目前的情況以及全年的發展感到非常滿意。但很高興在 Q3 和 Q4 作物周圍添加更多顏色。我覺得我們在那裡發布了很多有用的信息，特別是在投資者日簡報中。但如果您還有其他問題，我們很樂意為您解答。

Okay. And then one final quick one, if I might. The commercial quake, the layered and shared, are you seeing competitors take bigger layers, just taking down bigger chunks of exposure? Or same sort of structure, but just competition within the layers?

好的。如果可以的話，我最後再快速說一句。商業地震、分層和共享，您是否看到競爭對手佔據了更大的層級，從而佔據了更大的曝光份額？還是相同類型的結構，但只是層內競爭？

Yes. I would say it's more of that latter, Mark, where you're going to see just more competition, MGAs that have got capacity. That large layered and shared account, it's an easy market to enter if you have excess capital. And so we've seen that, in particular, not to pick on them, but from London markets and what they're doing on the traditional reinsurers who we have great relationships with entering the D&F market because it's a way for them to enter in a pretty expedient fashion. So it's increased competition.

是的。馬克，我想說的是後者，你會看到更多的競爭，擁有更多能力的 MGA。那個大型分層共享帳戶，如果你有多餘的資本，這是一個很容易進入的市場。因此，我們看到了這一點，特別是，我們並不是要挑剔他們，而是從倫敦市場以及他們對傳統再保險公司的所作所為來看，我們與這些傳統再保險公司在進入 D&F 市場方面有著良好的關係，因為這是他們以相當便捷的方式進入的一種方式。因此競爭更加激烈。

I think that's again why we like having the balanced book of business even within commercial. The small commercial accounts like we'll write the full limit, and it's not going to be bid out. And so it's a circumstance where you can control the relationship a lot more meaningfully than layered and shared where you might be $10 million part of $100 million or $15 million part of $200 million.

我認為這就是為什麼我們即使在商業領域也喜歡擁有平衡的業務帳簿。像小型商業帳戶我們會寫滿限額，而且不會進行投標。因此，在這種情況下，你可以更有意義地控制這種關係，而不是分層和共享，在這種關係中，你可能是 1 億美元中的 1000 萬美元，或者是 2 億美元中的 1500 萬美元。

So it just gets back to a theme that we are going to reiterate. We like having multifaceted middle market, small commercial business in the property franchise to complement the layered and shared and certainly complements the residential.

所以這只是回到我們要重申的主題。我們喜歡在房地產特許經營中擁有多方面的中端市場、小型商業業務，以補充分層和共享，當然也補充住宅。

And that's for builders risk, and that's for earthquake. Yes, it's for property generally.

這是建築商風險，這是地震風險。是的，一般來說，它適用於財產。

Appreciate it. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Great, thanks so much. A couple of really small questions, I think. First, Mac, you talked about the commercial all Risk program being essentially -- I don't remember the exact word, but gone now. Is that a product that you're sort of keeping in the portfolio for if and when market conditions change? Or should we assume that this is like other lines of business that you're not interested in?

太好了，非常感謝。我認為這是幾個很小的問題。首先，麥克，您談到商業全險計劃本質上——我不記得確切的措辭，但現在已經不存在了。您是否會在投資組合中保留該產品，以備市場條件變化時使用？或者我們應該假設這就像您不感興趣的其他業務線？

Yeah, Meyer, it's -- I would say it's a little bit of let's keep a toe in the water. We'll have a modicum of that. And from a premium standpoint, from a PML standpoint, you're less than $20 million of 250-year PML. So when market conditions, if and when market conditions change, we could indeed go back into that market and take advantage of what will be healthier risk-adjusted returns. For now, though, we are better suited focusing our property capital and our cat capital on quake or builders risk, which I've said time and again, has outperformed the all-risk market from a modeled to actual loss standpoint in multiple events or writing excess national property in non-cat-exposed regions. So we'll keep a toe in the water, but it's definitely standing by and assessing.

是的，邁耶，我想說，這有點像是讓我們先試水。我們將會得到一點點。從保費角度，從 PML 角度來看，250 年期 PML 的價值不到 2,000 萬美元。因此，當市場條件發生變化時，我們確實可以回到該市場並利用更健康的風險調整回報。不過，就目前而言，我們更適合將我們的房地產資本和巨災資本集中在地震或建築商風險上，我已經多次說過，從模型到實際損失的角度來看，在多個事件中，這些風險的表現都優於全險市場，或者在非巨災風險地區承保過多的國家財產。因此，我們會保持嘗試，但肯定會保持待命並進行評估。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Chris, when you talk about expenses for the crop business coming in the second quarter, are those operating or acquisition expenses? I don't know how the MDA part.

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。克里斯，當您談到第二季度農作物業務的費用時，這些是營運費用還是收購費用？我不知道 MDA 部分怎麼樣。

Yes. Those are going to be -- look more like operating expenses, right? So before, when we modeled this, it was an acquisition expense that kind of lined up a little bit better with the revenue. So we would have booked the earned premium in the third quarter, and we would have booked the acquisition expense in the third quarter. As we've gone out and bought that business and hired that team and brought them on as of the 4/1, there's a little bit more of, let's call it, an upfront cost associated with that business.

是的。這些看起來更像是營運費用，對嗎？因此，之前，當我們對此進行建模時，收購費用與收入的匹配程度更高一些。因此，我們會在第三季記入已賺保費，也會在第三季記入收購費用。由於我們已經購買了該業務並僱用了該團隊，並從 4 月 1 日起將他們帶入業務，因此該業務將產生更多前期成本。

As you know, we write that business or most of that business is actually written in March. So that team is in place, claims adjusters, service personnel, everyone is there. And so we hired them on 4/1, where we won't really see that revenue until the third quarter. So that will look like operating expenses. I expect, call it, the operating expense ratio to probably be the highest in the second quarter just with that dynamic, but really with that premium really being back ended and kind of bringing that ratio back down to, let's call it, 8%-ish, something similar, a little higher probably than last year, but kind of 8%-ish for the year.

如您所知，我們撰寫該業務或大部分業務實際上是在三月撰寫的。所以團隊已經到位，理賠人員、服務人員，每個人都在。因此我們在 4 月 1 日僱用了他們，但實際上直到第三季度我們才能看到收入。所以這看起來像是營運費用。我預計，在這種動態情況下，營業費用率可能在第二季度達到最高，但實際上，隨著溢價真的被收回，該比率將回落到 8% 左右，類似的水平，可能比去年略高，但全年約為 8%。

Okay. Fantastic. And then finally, the inland marine reserve releases for which accident years did that show up?

好的。極好的。最後，內陸海洋保護區釋放的魚類是哪些事故年份的？

We haven't specified which accident years, but I think it was spread out through the last few. We felt like we've been reserving pretty conservatively. Our actuaries indicated us that, so we were able to take those down. And so it was really, call it, E&S driven. It was the inland marine builders risk and then also that book that's a little bit of runoff that Mac talked about, that all risk book. Those books from an attritional standpoint have both been performing very well.

我們沒有具體說明事故發生的年份，但我認為事故發生在過去幾年。我們感覺我們的預訂已經相當保守了。我們的精算師指出了這一點，所以我們能夠將其取消。所以它實際上是由 E&S 驅動的。這是內陸船舶建造者風險，也是麥克談到的那本有點流失的書，即全險書。從消耗戰的角度來看，這兩本書的表現都非常出色。

And I think the other thing that I would add to that, Meyer is a -- is their shorter tail lines, right? And then secondly, we had not touched our mechanical loss pick on those -- in the teeth of meaningful rate increases. So all risk in '23 and '24, you were looking at 50% and 20% rate increases, and we haven't touched our loss pick. So there should have been redundancies and there still is potentially in that book.

我想補充的另一件事是，邁耶的尾線較短，對嗎？其次，在利率大幅上漲的情況下，我們並沒有觸及機械損失的選擇。因此，在 23 年和 24 年的所有風險中，利率分別上漲 50% 和 20%，而我們尚未觸及損失選擇。因此應該存在冗餘，而且那本書中仍然可能有冗餘。

So like Chris said, healthy amount of conservatism that was in the reserves that has come to fruition for us.

所以就像克里斯所說的那樣，儲備中的健康保​​護主義已經為我們帶來了成果。

All right, perfect, thank you.

好的，非常好，謝謝。

Pablo Singzon, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的 Pablo Singzon。

Hi, thank you for taking my question. The first one I had is maybe for Chris. It seems like the higher attritional loss ratio was mostly mix driven given the growth in casualty, but maybe you could talk about pockets of your book where you did better or worse from an underwriting perspective or any discrete impacts this quarter to think about? And relatedly, just where you see the attritional loss ratio trending from here?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我第一個可能是為克里斯準備的。鑑於傷亡事故的增長，較高的損耗率似乎主要是由多種因素造成的，但也許您可以從承保角度談談您在哪些方面做得更好或更差，或者本季度有哪些值得考慮的獨立影響？與此相關的是，您認為損耗率從現在開始會呈現什麼趨勢？

Yes. I'm going to start with the latter part of your question, right? I've talked about a lot. I do expect that attritional loss ratio to increase, let's call it, without prior period development, right around 26% for the quarter. That feels pretty good for me when I think about Q2.

是的。我將從你的問題的後半部分開始回答，對嗎？我已經講了很多了。我確實預計，在沒有前期發展的情況下，損耗率將會增加，本季損耗率將達到 26% 左右。當我想到第二季時，我感覺非常好。

When I think about Q3, I do expect it to be higher. I said something potentially getting close to 40% really from all or a significant portion of that crop premium coming in. And that crop premium, as you guys know, does have a higher loss ratio than a lot of our business that probably trends closer to 80% than even some of our other attritional lines that are in the 55% to 60% range.

當我想到第三季時，我確實預計它會更高。我說過，從農作物溢價中獲得的全部或很大一部分收益可能接近 40%。而且，正如你們所知，這種農作物溢價的損失率確實比我們的許多業務都要高，可能接近 80%，甚至比我們其他一些損耗線的損失率（在 55% 到 60% 的範圍內）還要高。

So that heavier weighted, let's call it, of earned premium and losses coming in, in the third quarter will push that loss ratio up in Q3. I do expect it to trend back down in Q4 from there with less of that crop premium coming in.

因此，我們稱之為第三季已賺保費和損失的較大權重將推高第三季的損失率。我確實預計，隨著農作物溢價的減少，第四季的價格將回落。

But overall, for the year, really thinking about that coming in right around, call it, the 30% mark, maybe low 30s when everything kind of plays out with -- I always hope for some favorability, but we don't really plan for it. So you saw a little bit of that this quarter, so pushing that loss ratio to 23% from probably 26%.

但總體而言，就今年而言，真正考慮一下這個數字，稱之為 30% 大關，也許是 30% 出頭，當一切順利的時候——我總是希望能有一些好感，但我們並沒有真正為此做計劃。因此本季你會看到一些這樣的情況，損失率大概從 26% 上升到了 23%。

Overall, when you look at the core pieces of our business, really nothing too exciting on a current year or current accident period standpoint. We're really pretty close to our picks in the marine builders risk, all risk and even on the casualty lines, we're really booking close to our picks. So overall, we feel very good about our picks.

總的來說，當你審視我們業務的核心部分時，從當前年度或當前事故期的角度來看，確實沒有什麼太令人興奮的事情。我們在船舶建造商風險、所有風險甚至意外險方面的選擇確實非常接近，我們的預訂量確實接近我們的選擇。所以整體來說，我們對自己的選擇感到非常滿意。

We think they are conservative. We hope that there is room for releases in the future. But right now, nothing to really speak of that's, call it, distinctive to split our lines up or try and carve anything out. We feel very good about our position and where we're sitting. One thing I would note, and I mentioned this in my prepared remarks that we really aren't touching our casualty reserves at this stage.

我們認為他們是保守的。我們希望未來還有發布的空間。但目前，還沒有什麼可說的，也沒有什麼可以稱之為獨特之處來劃分我們的界限或嘗試創造任何東西。我們對我們的地位和現在的處境感到非常滿意。有一件事我要指出，而且我在準備好的發言中也提到過，我們目前實際上還沒有動用傷亡儲備。

The only favorability that we're seeing in our loss ratio is coming around our property lines that are, as Mac mentioned, shorter tail.

我們在損失率中看到的唯一有利因素是圍繞我們的財產線，正如 Mac 所提到的，尾巴較短。

Okay, thanks for that, Chris. Okay. And then second question, maybe for Mac. Mac, you covered the current economic uncertainty in your remarks and yet you actually raised your earnings outlook modestly ex-cat and POE at least by our math. So maybe if you could speak about the potential pressure points in that outlook. It seems to me at least that premium growth could be a bigger issue than margins.

好的，謝謝你，克里斯。好的。然後是第二個問題，也許是針對 Mac。麥克，您在演講中談到了當前的經濟不確定性，但實際上您至少根據我們的計算，略微提高了扣除巨災因素和 POE 因素後的盈利預期。所以也許您可以談談這種前景中的潛在壓力點。至少在我看來，保費成長可能比利潤率更成問題。

I'm not sure if you agree, but if it is growth, how much of industry-level headwinds do you think you can overcome by the fact that you're still in the build-out phase for most of your business and whether in terms of new lines, geographies and so on?

我不確定您是否同意，但如果是成長，您認為您可以克服多少行業層面的阻力，因為您的大部分業務仍處於建設階段，無論是在新生產線、地理等方面？

Yeah. Pablo, thanks for the question. And I think I get it, and it's a good one in the sense that, yes, we feel very good about margin expansion and the conservatism in our model, whether it be the cat load relative to our wind PML or some of the reinsurance assumptions on the core treaty versus what's been placed.

是的。帕勃羅，謝謝你的提問。我想我明白了，從某種意義上來說，這是一個很好的想法，是的，我們對利潤率擴張和模型中的保守性感到非常滿意，無論是相對於我們的風能 PML 的巨災負荷，還是核心條約的一些再保險假設與已經實施的假設。

So we do feel comfortable, though, that we can sustain top line growth because of the numerous growth vectors we have, whether it be the crop business, whether it be the casualty business or even within casualty, the nascent surety franchise we have. The headwind is going to be commercial property.

因此，我們確實感到很放心，因為我們擁有眾多的成長載體，無論是農作物業務、意外險業務，還是意外險內部的新興擔保業務，我們能夠維持營收成長。逆風將會是商業地產。

We talked about it. It's a competitive environment. Rate pricing is down. But I come back to -- and this will be a bit of a dead horse today, we also have a nice book of residential property business that is still growing, and we should expect to see that help balance the headwind on the commercial side. So seasonality aside and the runoff of that fronting deal, like we think that there is a tremendous amount of growth that you'll see in 2025 and beyond because we have so many different vectors.

我們討論過這件事。這是一個競爭的環境。利率定價下降。但我回到——今天這將是一匹死馬，我們還有一本仍在增長的住宅地產業務書，我們應該期望看到它有助於平衡商業方面的逆風。因此，除了季節性和前端交易的流失之外，我們認為在 2025 年及以後您將看到巨大的成長，因為我們有如此多的不同載體。

So we'll play through the headwinds. And from a long-term perspective, we think that there's great growth prospects still in our future.

所以我們會克服困難繼續比賽。從長遠來看，我們認為未來仍有巨大的成長前景。

Thank you. And maybe could squeeze in just a little one maybe for Chris. How much of the inland marine and property book is excess national? Maybe the portion of the book where you're seeing the most pricing pressure. I just want to get a sense of your exposure there relative to what you're writing in builders' risk and Hawaii hurricane, et cetera.

謝謝。也許可以為克里斯擠一點時間。內陸海洋和財產帳簿中有多少是國家多餘的？這可能是本書中定價壓力最大的部分。我只是想了解您在建築商風險和夏威夷颶風等方面的風險敞口。

Yeah, I can start and then maybe Jon can add some color on that. But I think from our standpoint, the most pricing pressure in our view has probably come from the large commercial segment. I don't think there's -- seeing some of the other commentary in the market, I feel like we're probably seeing the same type of pressure. But Jon, anything you would add to that?

是的，我可以開始，然後也許喬恩可以添加一些顏色。但我認為，從我們的角度來看，最大的定價壓力可能來自大型商業領域。我不認為——看到市場上的一些其他評論，我覺得我們可能看到了同樣類型的壓力。但是喬恩，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. I'd say on the topic of Hawaii hurricane, we still have rate flowing through that book in the first quarter and into the second quarter. So I'd agree the personal line products that we have that are balancing out some of the pressure that we see on the commercial side are all very strong and don't see any kind of pressure there.

是的。我想說的是，關於夏威夷颶風的話題，我們在第一季和第二季仍然有利率流經該書。因此，我同意，我們所擁有的個人系列產品可以平衡我們在商業方面看到的一些壓力，這些產品都非常強勁，而且沒有看到任何壓力。

But Pablo, what I would offer you is that the excess national property and the large account builders risk, they are meaning -- they're not -- they don't over-index the composition of the Inland Marine and other property. It really is balanced when you factor in the small account builders risk, the high-value residential builders risk and then you add in flood to a lesser degree and certainly Hawaiian hurricane. So it's not over-indexed by the large account sector.

但是帕布羅，我想告訴你的是，過剩的國家財產和大額帳戶建設者的風險，他們的意思是——他們不是——他們不會過度指數化內陸海軍和其他財產的組成。當你考慮到小額帳戶建築商的風險、高價值住宅建築商的風險，然後再加上程度較輕的洪水和夏威夷颶風時，它確實是平衡的。因此，它並沒有被大帳戶部門過度指數化。

Yeah. And the other thing I'd add, just, again, more so on the personal line side is the valuation increases that we're continuing to push through the book. So we've talked in the past about inflation guards and our very conservative stance relative to the industry as to how we push values through. Those increased values translate into higher premiums. And so that also helps facilitate growth.

是的。另外我想補充的是，在個人保險方面，我們將繼續推動估值的提高。因此，我們過去曾談論過通膨警戒，以及我們相對於產業如何推動價值的非常保守的立場。這些增加的價值意味著更高的保費。這也有助於促進成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Hey, thanks, just on fronting, I think you mentioned this quarter was the peak impact. So I guess, is $50 million-ish kind of a good way to think about the next few quarters before maybe thinking of any additional activity here?

嘿，謝謝，只是在前面，我認為你提到這個季度是影響的高峰。因此，我想，在考慮採取任何其他行動之前，5000 萬美元左右的資金是不是思考接下來幾季的好方法？

Yeah, I can give you the specifics. So the Q1 number was about $48 million. The Q2 number or headwind is about $44 million. And then Q3, there's still, call it, another $30 million that was still written last year in Q3. So those are, call it, the fronting headwind vectors from this deal that we have running off, right?

是的，我可以告訴你具體細節。因此第一季的數字約為 4800 萬美元。第二季度的數字或逆風約為 4400 萬美元。然後是第三季度，還有，可以說，去年第三季還寫入了另外 3,000 萬美元。所以，這些就是我們從這筆交易中得到的正面逆風向量，對嗎？

Aside from that headwind, I'd say there was still growth in those -- in the fronting sector, but overall, that still is a decent headwind for the next two quarters.

除了這種不利因素之外，我認為前端領域仍然有成長，但總體而言，這對未來兩季來說仍然是一個相當大的不利因素。

Okay. And then just on the $200 million of crop premium expectation, is there any headwind or tailwind you're thinking about in terms of commodity pricing embedded within that?

好的。那麼，就 2 億美元的農作物溢價預期而言，您是否考慮過其中蘊含的商品定價方面的不利因素或有利因素？

Yeah, Andrew. So the prices were set in February and commodity prices right now are within a couple of percent of that. So it's -- I would say we're non-plus at these levels by the prices. And as I mentioned in my remarks, we're much more focused on yields. And so far, it's encouraging.

是的，安德魯。因此，價格是在二月確定的，而目前的商品價格與該價格相差只有幾個百分點。所以 — — 我想說，從價格來看，我們無法達到這樣的水準。正如我在演講中提到的，我們更加關注收益率。到目前為止，情況令人鼓舞。

We are through the sales cycle, the spring sales cycle. And so until the acreage reports are in hand, we won't truly know the premium. But as I mentioned, we feel very good about that $200 million bogey we put out.

我們正經歷銷售週期，春季銷售週期。因此，在獲得種植面積報告之前，我們無法真正了解溢價。但正如我所提到的，我們對我們投入的 2 億美元感到非常滿意。

Thanks. And just as a refresher, in terms of the loss ratio in 3Q for crop, I guess you would be booking it at kind of an average expectation with the actual result being embedded in 4Q. Is that a good way to think about the crop portion?

謝謝。再說一下，就第三季農作物的損失率而言，我想你會將其算作一種平均預期，而實際結果將在第四季度公佈。這是考慮作物部分的好方法嗎？

I mean I think it's going to be a blended of both in the third quarter. There's going to be expectation plus results going through there. We will start being -- we will start seeing that in the third quarter. I think we'll have a lot more clarity in the fourth quarter, but I would not say it's just going to be a pure loss pick in Q3. Actual results will inform how we book the third quarter.

我的意思是，我認為第三季兩者將會混合出現。那裡會有期望和結果。我們將在第三季開始看到這一點。我認為我們會在第四季有更清晰的認識，但我不會說第三季度只會出現純粹的虧損。實際結果將告訴我們如何規劃第三季。

As there are no further questions, ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Mac Armstrong for closing comments.

女士們、先生們，由於沒有其他問題，問答環節已經結束。現在我想請麥克阿姆斯壯 (Mac Armstrong) 作最後發言。

Great. Thanks, operator, and thank you all for joining us today. The year is off to a strong start. Our core earthquake and in marine business segments are performing well, and they're successfully navigating the market and delivering solid growth. Our casualty and crop lines are poised to become industry leaders.

偉大的。謝謝，接線員，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。今年開局強勁。我們的核心地震和海洋業務部門表現良好，成功引領市場並穩健成長。我們的傷亡和農作物生產線有望成為行業領導者。

We feel great about the 2025 guidance, and we think that there is a decent level of conservatism in those when you look at the expense for cats as well as what we are assuming from a reinsurance standpoint. So ultimately, we are building a portfolio of industry-leading specialty businesses that are going to provide consistent strong performance and resilience through industry cycles.

我們對 2025 年的指導方針感到非常滿意，我們認為，當您考慮貓的費用以及我們從再保險角度假設的情況時，這些指導方針具有相當程度的保守性。因此，最終，我們正在建立一個領先業界的專業業務組合，這些業務將在整個行業週期中提供持續強勁的業績和韌性。

And what that will lead to is consistent earnings and returns over time. We could not be more excited with what the opportunities that we see ahead of us. And I want to thank all of our team for the great efforts this quarter and thank them in advance of what they're going to do for the company and our shareholders the rest of this year.

這將帶來長期持續的收益和回報。我們對眼前的機會感到無比興奮。我要感謝我們整個團隊本季的巨大努力，並提前感謝他們在今年剩餘時間為公司和股東所做的貢獻。

Thank you again, and enjoy the rest of your day.

再次感謝您，祝您今天過得愉快。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。