Prologis Inc (PLD) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Prologis Q4 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我的名字是布倫特，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Prologis 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Jill Sawyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興將今天的電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Jill Sawyer。請繼續。

Thanks, Brent, and good morning, everyone. I'm standing in for Tracy today. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations.

謝謝，布倫特，大家早上好。我今天代表特蕾西。歡迎參加我們的 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的投資者關係下獲得。

I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statements notice in our 10-K or SEC filings.

我想聲明，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於對 Prologis 經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。前瞻性陳述並非業績保證，實際經營業績可能受多種因素影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們提交的 10-K 或 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

Additionally, our fourth quarter results press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP measures. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures. This morning, we'll hear from Tom Olinger, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, Gary Anderson, Chris Caton, Mike Curless, Dan Letter, Ed Nekritz, Gene Reilly and Colleen McKeown are also with us today.

此外，我們的第四季度業績新聞稿和補充確實包含財務指標，例如非公認會計原則指標的 FFO 和 EBITDA。並且根據 Reg G，我們對這些措施進行了調整。今天上午，我們將聽取我們的首席財務官 Tom Olinger 的講話，他將介紹業績、實時市場狀況和指導。 Hamid Moghadam、Gary Anderson、Chris Caton、Mike Curless、Dan Letter、Ed Nekritz、Gene Reilly 和 Colleen McKeown 今天也和我們在一起。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Tom, will you please begin?

有了這個，我會把電話轉給湯姆。湯姆，請你開始吧？

Thanks, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. The fourth quarter closed out a year of record-setting activity across our business. Core FFO was $1.12 per share, with net promote earnings of $0.05. For the full year, core FFO was $4.15 per share, with net promote earnings of $0.06. Excluding promotes, core FFO grew 14% year-over-year.

謝謝，吉爾。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。第四季度結束了我們業務創紀錄的一年。核心 FFO 為每股 1.12 美元，淨促進收益為 0.05 美元。全年，核心 FFO 為每股 4.15 美元，淨促進收益為 0.06 美元。不包括促銷，核心 FFO 同比增長 14%。

Net effective rent change on rollover accelerated to 33%, up 510 basis points sequentially and was led by the U.S. at over 37%. Average occupancy was 97.4%, up 80 basis points sequentially. Cash same-store NOI growth remained strong at 7.5% for the quarter and 6.1% for the full year.

展期後的淨有效租金變化加速至 33%，環比上升 510 個基點，以美國為首，超過 37%。平均入住率為 97.4%，環比上升 80 個基點。本季度現金同店 NOI 增長保持強勁，為 7.5%，全年為 6.1%。

I want to point out that we're modifying our in-place to market rent disclosure to standardize this metric among logistics REITs. This collaboration is an extension of the work we've done to harmonize other property operating metrics. We have collectively defined net effective lease mark-to-market of our operating portfolio as the growth rate from in-place rents to market rents. This now aligns with how rent change on rollover is expressed. Using this new definition consistently applied, our net effective lease mark-to-market at year-end jumped almost 800 basis points sequentially to 36%. This current rent spread represents embedded organic NOI of more than $1.2 billion or $1.55 per share that we will capture without any further market rent growth.

我想指出，我們正在修改我們的就地市場租金披露，以使物流 REITs 中的這一指標標準化。這種合作是我們為協調其他酒店運營指標所做的工作的延伸。我們將運營組合的淨有效租賃按市值計算定義為從原地租金到市場租金的增長率。現在，這與展期租金變化的表達方式一致。使用一貫應用的這一新定義，我們在年底的淨有效租賃按市值計算，環比增長近 800 個基點，達到 36%。目前的租金價差代表了超過 12 億美元或每股 1.55 美元的嵌入式有機 NOI，我們將在沒有任何進一步市場租金增長的情況下捕獲這些 NOI。

Turning to strategic capital. This business continues to drive tremendous growth in value. In Q4, we completed the early wind up of our highly successful UKLV venture. UKLV's $1.7 billion of operating assets were contributed to our PELF and PELP Ventures, we earned net promote income of $0.05 in connection with the closeout of this venture and our percentage of infinite life vehicles has consequently grown to 95% of our $66 billion of third-party assets under management.

轉向戰略資本。該業務繼續推動價值的巨大增長。在第四季度，我們完成了我們非常成功的 UKLV 合資企業的早期清算。 UKLV 的 17 億美元運營資產貢獻給了我們的 PELF 和 PELP Ventures，我們在該合資企業的關閉中獲得了 0.05 美元的淨推廣收入，因此我們的無限生命車輛的百分比已增長到我們 660 億美元的第三-管理方資產。

For the year, our team raised $4.4 billion of third-party equity. After drawing down $1.9 billion in our open-ended funds for acquisitions during the year, equity Qs stood at a record $4 billion at year-end.

這一年，我們的團隊籌集了 44 億美元的第三方股權。在年內從我們的開放式基金中提取 19 億美元用於收購後，Qs 的股權在年底達到了創紀錄的 40 億美元。

On the deployment front, we had a very productive and profitable year. Development starts totaled $3.6 billion with margins of 32%. We continue to maintain a long development runway with a land portfolio able to support $26 billion of future starts. Stabilizations totaled $2.5 billion with estimated value creation of $1.3 billion and average margin of 53%, both all-time highs. Realized development gains were $817 million for the year, also an all-time high. These results are the product of our highly disciplined team and an incredibly strong operating environment.

在部署方面，我們度過了非常富有成效和盈利的一年。開發啟動總額為 36 億美元，利潤率為 32%。我們繼續保持長期的開發跑道，其土地組合能夠支持 260 億美元的未來開工。穩定化總額為 25 億美元，估計創造價值 13 億美元，平均利潤率為 53%，均創歷史新高。全年實現的發展收益為 8.17 億美元，也是歷史最高水平。這些成果是我們紀律嚴明的團隊和令人難以置信的強大運營環境的產物。

For our customers, the importance of the health of their supply chain and the real estate that underpins it has never been so critical. We believe the current global supply chain challenges will continue well beyond this year. Fortunately, the scale of our 1 billion square foot portfolio puts us in a unique position to help our customers address these current supply chain challenges. This includes shortening construction delivery times by navigating raw material shortages and leveraging our Essentials platform to procure warehouse equipment and services, so our customers can focus on their core operations. We're also investing in technology and talent to support our industry-leading sustainability objectives, including our efforts around renewable energy.

對於我們的客戶來說，他們的供應鏈健康以及支撐它的房地產的重要性從未如此重要。我們相信，當前的全球供應鏈挑戰將持續到今年之後。幸運的是，我們 10 億平方英尺的投資組合規模使我們處於一個獨特的位置，可以幫助我們的客戶應對這些當前的供應鏈挑戰。這包括通過解決原材料短缺和利用我們的 Essentials 平台採購倉庫設備和服務來縮短施工交付時間，以便我們的客戶可以專注於他們的核心業務。我們還投資於技術和人才，以支持我們行業領先的可持續發展目標，包括我們圍繞可再生能源所做的努力。

Market dynamics today are highly favorable and demand has never been stronger. During the quarter, we signed 62 million square feet of leases and issued proposals on 90 million square feet. Demand is diverse across a range of industry end customers. E-commerce made up 19% of our new leasing this quarter, with further broadening of customer diversity. We signed 357 new leases, with 265 unique e-commerce customers in 2021, both of which are high watermarks.

今天的市場動態非常有利，需求從未如此強勁。本季度，我們簽署了 6200 萬平方英尺的租約，並發布了 9000 萬平方英尺的提案。各種行業最終客戶的需求是多種多樣的。電子商務占我們本季度新租賃的 19%，客戶多樣性進一步擴大。我們在 2021 年簽署了 357 份新租約，擁有 265 名獨特的電子商務客戶，這兩項都是高水位線。

Demand is fueled by 3 forces. First, overall consumption and demographic growth require our customers to expand. Second, customer supply chains are still repositioning to address the massive shift to e-commerce as well as preparing for higher growth and service expectations. And third, the need to create more resiliency in supply chains. Inventory to sales ratios are more than 10% below pre-pandemic levels. Our customers not only need to restock at this 10% shortfall but build additional safety stock of 10% or greater. This combination has the potential to produce 800 million square feet or more of future demand in the U.S. alone. Collectively, these forces have placed a premium on speed to market and flexibility, driving demand for years to come.

需求由 3 種力量推動。首先，整體消費和人口增長需要我們的客戶擴大。其次，客戶供應鏈仍在重新定位，以應對向電子商務的大規模轉變，並為更高的增長和服務期望做準備。第三，需要在供應鏈中創造更大的彈性。庫存與銷售比率比大流行前水平低 10% 以上。我們的客戶不僅需要在這 10% 的短缺情況下補貨，而且還需要增加 10% 或更多的安全庫存。僅在美國，這種組合就有可能產生 8 億平方英尺或更多的未來需求。總的來說，這些力量都非常重視上市速度和靈活性，從而推動未來幾年的需求。

From a supply perspective, construction underway in the U.S. is approximately 70% pre-leased, which is well above the historical average. We believe demand will balance out with supply in 2022, and vacancy rates will remain at record lows in both our U.S. and international markets. Competition for limited availabilities produced yet another quarter of record rent and value growth. In the fourth quarter, rents in our portfolio grew 5.7% globally and 6.5% in the U.S., bringing full year growth to records 18% and 20%, respectively, far exceeding our initial forecast. This growth, paired with continued compression in cap rates, is translating to record valuation increases.

從供應的角度來看，美國正在進行的建築大約有 70% 是預租的，遠高於歷史平均水平。我們相信 2022 年供需平衡，美國和國際市場的空置率將保持在歷史低位。對有限可用性的競爭又產生了創紀錄的租金和價值增長的四分之一。第四季度，我們投資組合的全球租金增長 5.7%，美國增長 6.5%，全年增長率分別達到創紀錄的 18% 和 20%，遠超我們最初的預測。這種增長，再加上上限利率的持續壓縮，正在轉化為創紀錄的估值增長。

Our portfolio posted its highest quarterly value increase, rising more than 12.5% globally, bringing the full year increase to a remarkable 39%.

我們的投資組合實現了最高的季度價值增長，全球增長超過 12.5%，使全年增長達到驚人的 39%。

Now moving to guidance for 2022, here are the components on an our share basis. We expect cash same-store NOI growth to range between 6% and 7% and average occupancy to range between 96.5% to 97.5%. We are forecasting rent growth in our markets to be 11% in the U.S. and 10% globally.

現在轉向 2022 年的指導，這裡是我們分享的組成部分。我們預計現金同店 NOI 增長將在 6% 至 7% 之間，平均入住率將在 96.5% 至 97.5% 之間。我們預測美國市場的租金增長為 11%，全球增長 10%。

For strategic capital, we expect revenue, excluding promotes, to range between $540 million and $560 million. We expect net promote income of $0.55 per share for the year, almost all of which will occur in the third quarter and is driven by our PELF venture. While a record, given the significant increase in rents and valuations, we would expect to see similar or higher promote levels in 2023.

對於戰略資本，我們預計不包括促銷在內的收入將在 5.4 億美元至 5.6 億美元之間。我們預計今年每股淨促進收入為 0.55 美元，幾乎所有這些都將發生在第三季度，並由我們的 PELF 合資企業推動。鑑於租金和估值的顯著增長，雖然創紀錄，但我們預計 2023 年將看到類似或更高的促銷水平。

In response to continued strong demand, we are forecasting development starts of $4.5 billion to $5 billion, with approximately 35% build-to-suits. Dispositions will range between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion, 2/3 of which we expect to close this quarter. We're forecasting net deployment uses of $2.3 billion at the midpoint, which we plan to fund with $1.6 billion of free cash flow after dividends and a modest increase in leverage.

為了應對持續強勁的需求，我們預計開發開工將在 45 億至 50 億美元之間，其中約 35% 是定制的。處置將在 15 億美元至 18 億美元之間，我們預計將在本季度完成其中的 2/3。我們預測中點的淨部署使用量為 23 億美元，我們計劃用 16 億美元的股息和適度增加的槓桿後的自由現金流為其提供資金。

We project core FFO, including the $0.55 of net promote income, to range between $5 and $5.10 per share, representing 22% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Core FFO, excluding promotes, will range between $4.45 and $4.55 per share or year-over-year growth of 10% at the midpoint.

我們預計核心 FFO（包括 0.55 美元的淨促銷收入）在每股 5 美元至 5.10 美元之間，中點同比增長 22%。不包括促銷在內的核心 FFO 將介於每股 4.45 美元至 4.55 美元之間，或中點同比增長 10%。

Since our Investor Forum in 2019, our 3-year earnings CAGR has been 13%, excluding promotes, well ahead of the 8% to 9% CAGR forecast we originally provided.

自 2019 年投資者論壇以來，我們的 3 年收益複合年增長率為 13%，不包括促銷，遠高於我們最初提供的 8% 至 9% 的複合年增長率預測。

Before closing out, I want to spend a minute on the quality of our earnings drivers and differentiators, which set Prologis apart from other real estate companies. We continue to drive strong organic growth and aren't reliant upon external growth to achieve sector-leading results. In fact, approximately 75% of the increase to our core FFO for 2022, excluding promotes, is derived from organic growth, principally same-store NOI and strategic capital fee-related earnings.

在結束之前，我想花一點時間談談我們的盈利驅動因素和差異化因素的質量，這些因素使 Prologis 有別於其他房地產公司。我們繼續推動強勁的有機增長，並且不依賴外部增長來實現行業領先的業績。事實上，我們 2022 年核心 FFO 的大約 75% 的增長（不包括促銷活動）來自有機增長，主要是同店 NOI 和與戰略資本費用相關的收益。

It's important to point out that in 2022, our strategic capital revenue, including promotes, will be over $1 billion, a new milestone. This high-margin business generates very durable fee streams with asset management fees marked to fair values each quarter, all while requiring minimal capital. In addition, we see growing earnings from our Essentials business, which allows us to expand our services and solutions beyond rent. When we introduced this business back in 2018, we set a target of $300 million from procurement savings and Essentials revenue. We will hit that target this year with more than $225 million from procurement and $75 million from Essentials.

需要指出的是，到 2022 年，我們的戰略資本收入（包括促銷）將超過 10 億美元，這是一個新的里程碑。這項高利潤業務產生了非常持久的費用流，每個季度的資產管理費用都標為公允價值，同時需要最少的資本。此外，我們看到 Essentials 業務的收入不斷增長，這使我們能夠將我們的服務和解決方案擴展到租金之外。當我們在 2018 年推出這項業務時，我們設定了 3 億美元的採購節省和 Essentials 收入的目標。今年，我們將通過超過 2.25 億美元的採購和 7500 萬美元的 Essentials 來實現這一目標。

In light of our success with procurement and the fact that we have embedded this initiative into our platform, we will not provide specific procurement reporting going forward, instead focusing on Essentials. We also have a long development runway of $26 billion, much of which comes from our international opportunity set, positioning us for continued strong value creation well into the future. Lastly, these differentiators are all underpinned by the lowest cost of capital among REITs and unmatched scale that minimizes operating costs.

鑑於我們在採購方面取得的成功以及我們已將此計劃嵌入我們的平台這一事實，我們將不再提供具體的採購報告，而是專注於 Essentials。我們還有一個 260 億美元的長期發展跑道，其中大部分來自我們的國際機會組合，使我們能夠在未來繼續強勁的價值創造。最後，這些差異化因素均以 REITs 中最低的資本成本和最大程度降低運營成本的無與倫比的規模為基礎。

In closing, while 2021 was a year of many records, the bulk of the benefit from the current environment will be realized in the future, providing a clear tangible runway for sector-leading growth for many years to come. We are confident our best years are still ahead of us. With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

最後，雖然 2021 年是創下多項紀錄的一年，但當前環境帶來的大部分收益將在未來實現，為未來許多年行業領先的增長提供明確的切實跑道。我們相信，最好的歲月還在前面。有了這個，我會把電話轉給接線員來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Kim。

I wanted to ask if you could provide some color on the yields on development starts, which compressed 50 basis points sequentially this quarter. I'm pretty sure this does not include the uplift in market rental growth of 10% you're expecting this year, but I just wanted to double check that was the case. But also I was wondering how you view development yields and cap rates trending this year in the rising rate environment.

我想問你是否可以提供一些關於開發開始收益率的顏色，本季度連續壓縮了 50 個基點。我很確定這不包括你今年預期的 10% 的市場租金增長，但我只是想仔細檢查一下情況是否如此。但我也想知道在利率上升的環境中，您如何看待今年的開發收益率和上限利率趨勢。

Yes. So the answer to your question is yes. We have not included the forecasted rents. So we underwrite based on what we see currently. So we're -- in this environment, where we're seeing returns compress, you should expect to see some compression in the development yield. Now mix also has a lot to do with that. And that's something we can check out and maybe get back to you guys on the call about.

是的。所以你的問題的答案是肯定的。我們沒有包括預測租金。所以我們根據我們目前看到的情況進行承保。所以我們 - 在這種環境中，我們看到回報壓縮，你應該期望看到開發產量有所壓縮。現在 mix 也與此有很大關係。這是我們可以檢查的內容，也許會在電話中回复你們。

In terms of cap rate trends, I don't think you want to pay any attention to our forecast since we've been consistently wrong for the last 5 years.

就上限利率趨勢而言，我認為您不想關注我們的預測，因為我們在過去 5 年中一直是錯誤的。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Korchman with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Emmanuel Korchman。

In terms of your ramping start guidance and commentary from lots of other competitors in the logistics space, when should people start worrying about the amount of supply coming? And maybe an easy way to answer that is how much of your starts are preleased? Or do you expect to get to preleased over the next couple of months and sort of assuage that supply issue?

就物流領域許多其他競爭對手的快速啟動指導和評論而言，人們應該何時開始擔心供應量的到來？也許一個簡單的方法來回答你的開始有多少是預先發布的？還是您希望在未來幾個月內發布並緩解供應問題？

Well, I'll start, and Chris will have some data for you too, Manny. I think every year, we all forecasted supply exceeding demand, and we yet have to see that happen after the global financial crisis. It will happen in some year. I just don't know whether it's this coming year or some other year. But I've never seen 70% pre-leasing in 40 years of doing this in the development portfolio.

好吧，我要開始了，克里斯也會給你一些數據，曼尼。我認為每年我們都預測供過於求，但我們還必須看到全球金融危機之後會發生這種情況。它會在某年發生。我只是不知道是今年還是其他年份。但在開發組合中這樣做的 40 年中，我從未見過 70% 的預租。

And also, the interest in build-to-suits, I think, is a pretty good indication that the product just isn't there. And I'm willing to bet this is counterfactual. But I'm willing to bet if there were more supply, there would be more absorption and more demand. People simply cannot get the space that they need. But I think it will be several years.

而且，我認為，對定制西裝的興趣是一個很好的跡象，表明該產品不存在。我敢打賭這是反事實的。但我願意打賭，如果有更多的供應，就會有更多的吸收和更多的需求。人們根本無法獲得他們需要的空間。但我認為這將是幾年。

And the other thing you need to pay attention to is that overall supply numbers are interesting, but our portfolio is very differentiated in terms of the markets, high barrier markets that our portfolio lives in. And let's not forget about overseas because the dynamics overseas in terms of supply are very different than they are in the U.S. So I think it's a complicated soup. I'm not trying to avoid your answer, but that's not on the first page of my worry list. It will be at some point, but it's not this year, and I don't think it's going to be next year. Chris?

您需要注意的另一件事是總體供應數字很有趣，但我們的投資組合在市場方面非常差異化，我們的投資組合所在的高壁壘市場。我們不要忘記海外，因為海外的動態供應條款與美國非常不同。所以我認為這是一道複雜的湯。我不是想迴避你的回答，但這不在我的擔憂清單的第一頁。它會在某個時候，但不是今年，我認為明年也不會。克里斯？

Yes. Sure, Manny. So the numbers for this year look very strong market environment, 375 million to 400 million square feet of both delivery and net absorption in our 30 markets that will leave the market vacancy rate at an ultra-low all-time record, 3.4%, 3.5% vacancy. So very low.

是的。當然，曼尼。因此，今年的數據看起來非常強勁的市場環境，我們 30 個市場的交付量和淨吸納量為 3.75 億至 4 億平方英尺，這將使市場空置率創下歷史新低，分別為 3.4%、3.5百分比空缺。所以非常低。

Now this is especially true in our U.S. global markets, where we have an overweight strategy. In those markets, the under construction pipeline is just 3% of stock and is 70% pre-leased. 2021 net absorption, so demand was 14% higher than that under construction pipeline. Now by comparison, our regional markets have 4.8% of their markets under construction. So our global markets are 180 basis points better. 2021 demand, that net absorption was 12% below this under-construction pipeline in the regional markets. So our global markets are 25% better.

現在，在我們的美國全球市場尤其如此，我們有一個增持策略。在這些市場中，在建管道僅佔存量的 3%，且 70% 已預租。 2021 年淨吸收，因此需求比在建管道高出 14%。現在相比之下，我們的區域市場有 4.8% 的市場正在建設中。所以我們的全球市場要好 180 個基點。 2021 年的需求，淨吸收量比區域市場的在建管道低 12%。所以我們的全球市場要好 25%。

Your next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jamie Feldman。

Just as you think about when supply chain -- well, the first question, where are we -- or how much longer before you think supply chains do start to smooth out? But I guess, even more importantly, because that's probably impossible to pick a date, what does warehouse demand look like when supply chains do smooth out? So of the type of demand that Tom outlined, the different categories of demand, when supply chains smooth out, how much of that goes away?

就像您考慮供應鏈何時——嗯，第一個問題，我們在哪裡——或者你認為供應鏈開始平穩之前還有多長時間？但我想，更重要的是，因為這可能無法選擇日期，當供應鏈順暢時，倉庫需求會是什麼樣子？那麼湯姆概述的需求類型，不同類別的需求，當供應鏈順暢時，有多少會消失？

Okay. I think Tom answered your second question, but let me take another stab at it. We know, this is a fact. It's not opinion, that supply -- that the inventory levels in terms of inventory to sales ratios are 10 points below what they were prior to the pandemic. And the reason for that is that people are sitting at home and the goods economy has been on fire and people are buying a lot of stuff and not spending as much money on experience, et cetera. So that dynamic will change. But regardless, that 10%, will have to snap back to a normal level, and that's a source for demand.

好的。我想湯姆回答了你的第二個問題，但讓我再試一次。我們知道，這是事實。供應不是意見，即庫存與銷售比率方面的庫存水平比大流行之前的水平低 10 個百分點。其原因是人們坐在家裡，商品經濟一直在火，人們買了很多東西，卻沒有在體驗上花那麼多錢，等等。所以這種動態會改變。但無論如何，這 10% 將不得不恢復到正常水平，這是需求的來源。

In addition to that, as we outlined in the paper that we put out almost 1.5 years ago now, we believe there is -- at that time, we thought 5% to 10%. Today, we would say 10% to 15% more demand, in other words, higher inventory to sales ratio than normal or pre-pandemic because of the need for resilience. And where does that number come from? It comes from all the customers that we talk to every day.

除此之外，正如我們在將近 1.5 年前發表的論文中所概述的那樣，我們相信有——當時，我們認為是 5% 到 10%。今天，我們會說需求增加了 10% 到 15%，換句話說，由於需要彈性，庫存與銷售比率比正常或大流行前更高。這個數字是從哪裡來的？它來自我們每天與之交談的所有客戶。

So between where we are now and where we think we're going to end up being, there is a 20% to 25% swing in inventories. That is huge. And it is not driven by the fact that there's a bunch of inventory sitting around, certainly not in the U.S. and maybe sitting around in some plants somewhere. But in the U.S., there's no inventory around for it to go away. That's the problem. And that's what's creating the supply chain problem.

因此，在我們現在所處的位置和我們認為最終會達到的位置之間，庫存會有 20% 到 25% 的波動。那是巨大的。這並不是因為周圍有一堆庫存，當然不是在美國，也可能是在某個地方的一些工廠裡。但在美國，沒有庫存可以讓它消失。那就是問題所在。這就是造成供應鏈問題的原因。

Now there were a lot of people smarter than me who predicted that the supply chain problems will be -- would have been over by Christmas or after Christmas. That is not the case. All they're doing is they're parking the ships further into the Pacific so that the visual is not as concerning, if you will, as it would have been, too many 60-minute stories on that, that concern the politicians. But that's not the only indication of a supply chain problem.

現在有很多比我更聰明的人預測供應鏈問題將在聖誕節或聖誕節後結束。事實並非如此。他們所做的只是將船隻停在太平洋更遠的地方，這樣視覺效果就不會那麼令人擔憂了。但這並不是供應鏈問題的唯一跡象。

I mean you could have a product that has 50 different parts going into it, and until the last part gets there, you can't ship that product. So that's a supply chain problem. The fact that you can't get truckers to pick up the goods from ports or transport them from point A to point B, that's a supply chain problem. I think all of those things are going to take multiple years to resolve themselves. So I think we're going to be in this mode for a while.

我的意思是你可以擁有一個包含 50 個不同部件的產品，直到最後一個部件到達那裡，你才能運送該產品。所以這是一個供應鏈問題。事實上，你不能讓卡車司機從港口提貨或將它們從 A 點運送到 B 點，這是一個供應鏈問題。我認為所有這些事情都需要多年時間才能自行解決。所以我認為我們將在這種模式下保持一段時間。

Your next question comes from Craig Mailman with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Craig Mailman。

Tom, I kind of want to go back to your commentary. I know you guys traditionally said 8% to 9% FFO growth, ex promotes. The CAGR since the Investor Day has been 13%. And I believe you guys are already kind of at 10% with initial guidance here. I mean, in this part of the cycle where market rent growth continues to be underestimated, your mark-to-market grows, you're unleashing a little bit of the balance sheet with higher leverage here in that 2.5 million of uses here. Kind of how should we think about maybe this point in the cycle trend until we get an inflection? And how long could that last?

湯姆，我有點想回到你的評論。我知道你們傳統上說 FFO 增長 8% 到 9%，前促進。自投資者日以來的複合年增長率為 13%。我相信你們已經有了 10% 的初步指導。我的意思是，在市場租金增長繼續被低估的這部分週期中，您的市值增長，您在這裡的 250 萬次使用中釋放了一些具有更高槓桿的資產負債表。在我們得到拐點之前，我們應該如何考慮週期趨勢中的這一點？那能持續多久？

Craig, so I think you're asking what's 8% to 9%, if it was 8% to 9% back in '19, has that changed today. And yes, it's changed. And I think for several reasons, and it gets back to the differentiators I talked about in my script, but I'll start with same store. My memory is that the same store embedded in that Investor Day was 3.5% to 4.5%. And that has...

克雷格，所以我想你問的是 8% 到 9%，如果在 19 年是 8% 到 9%，那麼今天發生了變化。是的，它已經改變了。我認為有幾個原因，這又回到了我在劇本中談到的差異化因素，但我將從同一家商店開始。我的記憶是，在那個投資者日嵌入的同一家商店是 3.5% 到 4.5%。而那已經...

It was actually 3% growth on top of -- 3% growth in market rents on top of the mark-to-market that existed there. And I don't remember what that was. It was in the teens certainly.

它實際上是 3% 的增長——市場租金在現有的按市值計算的基礎上增長了 3%。我不記得那是什麼。那肯定是在十幾歲的時候。

Yes. Under the -- our new methodology, I think that we were about 18%, give or take. Today, we're at 36%, so almost double, right? So you can think about that rachet -- that in place to market alone is going to ratchet up our same-store growth by more than 100 basis points, up to 150 basis points. So you can think about that level of same-store for several years because that 36% in place to market growth is an average. So think about what it's going to be over the next year or 2. Should be higher, right, because you're going to be rolling leases higher.

是的。根據我們的新方法，我認為我們大約是 18%，無論是給予還是接受。今天，我們達到了 36%，幾乎翻了一番，對吧？因此，您可以考慮一下這種棘輪——僅就市場而言，我們的同店增長就會提高 100 多個基點，最高可達 150 個基點。所以你可以考慮幾年的同店水平，因為 36% 的市場增長率是平均水平。所以想一想明年或 2 年會發生什麼。應該更高，對，因為您將滾動租約更高。

And that 36% is not stopping. If you look at our guidance, right, for rent growth for the year and rent change, I would expect to see that in place to market build by the time we get to end of 2022, it's going to -- I think it's going to cross the 40% mark. So that same-store is going to continue to grow, and it's going to -- it's not a 1- or 2-year story, it's 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-year story. And again, that's with market rents not growing the 36%. That's number one.

而這 36% 並沒有停止。如果你看一下我們對今年租金增長和租金變化的指導，我希望在我們到 2022 年底時看到市場建設到位，它會——我認為它會突破 40% 大關。因此，同店將繼續增長，而且它會——這不是一個 1 年或 2 年的故事，而是 2、3、4、5 年的故事。再說一次，市場租金沒有增長 36%。那是第一名。

Second would be think about our strategic capital business, how we are scaling in that business, how our fees are growing without promotes, right? We saw asset values increase 39% overall for the year. Well, guess what, that increases asset values in our funds and our asset management fees increase as well. So that business is continuing to scale and contribute. And then when you look at our Essentials business, we expect -- we talked at Investor Day about that business adding 50 basis points of growth, kind of $0.02. I think we're going to be well ahead of that. So I could go on with differentiators, but that 8% to 9%, the new normal is, I think, what you're staring down with our core results this year.

其次是考慮我們的戰略資本業務，我們如何擴展該業務，我們的費用如何在沒有促銷的情況下增長，對嗎？我們看到今年資產價值總體增長了 39%。好吧，你猜怎麼著，這增加了我們基金的資產價值，我們的資產管理費也增加了。因此，該業務將繼續擴大規模並做出貢獻。然後，當您查看我們的 Essentials 業務時，我們預計 - 我們在投資者日談到該業務增加 50 個基點，相當於 0.02 美元。我認為我們將遠遠領先於此。所以我可以繼續進行差異化，但是 8% 到 9% 的新常態是，我認為，你正在盯著我們今年的核心業績看。

Craig, let me add two things to what Tom said, all of which I agree with. Number one, you actually got our same-store right, better than most people, including us. So congratulations on that for the past. But going forward, look, the market is really good and all kinds of different portfolios regardless of their strategies will do well in an environment where rents are going up and cap rates are compressing. But we are thinking way beyond that.

克雷格，讓我在湯姆所說的基礎上補充兩點，我都同意。第一，你實際上得到了我們的同店，比包括我們在內的大多數人都好。所以祝賀過去。但展望未來，市場非常好，各種不同的投資組合，無論其策略如何，都會在租金上漲和上限利率壓縮的環境中表現良好。但我們的想法遠不止於此。

I mean, Tom mentioned Essentials, we have significant expectations for that business. Looking at our labor CWI business, that is becoming -- we did it as a service to customers, but it's quickly turning into a potential profit center. We have now put together a group to invest into EV charging. And we have actually committed to our first project in Southern California for EV charging on trucks. The ROIs on that business are off the charts. So we're not -- and by the way, I could go on for another 20 minutes talking about the stuff that's in the pipeline. So we're not sitting and just praying for the real estate aspects of our business. The most valuable aspect of our business is the 1 billion square feet of customers that we serve that are in need of lots of other things. So we're really excited about the long-term prospects. We didn't have that in 2019. Those things were a glimmer in our eye. Now their real businesses producing real bottom line. So that's why I'm pretty optimistic about the future going forward. And remember, all of that is being done with sub-20% leverage.

我的意思是，湯姆提到了 Essentials，我們對這項業務抱有很高的期望。看看我們的勞工 CWI 業務，這正在成為 - 我們將其作為對客戶的服務，但它正在迅速轉變為潛在的利潤中心。我們現在組建了一個小組來投資電動汽車充電。實際上，我們已經承諾在南加州開展第一個電動卡車充電項目。該業務的投資回報率超出預期。所以我們不是——順便說一句，我可以再談 20 分鐘來討論正在籌備中的事情。因此，我們不是坐下來為我們業務的房地產方面祈禱。我們業務中最有價值的方面是我們服務的 10 億平方英尺的客戶，他們需要很多其他的東西。因此，我們對長期前景感到非常興奮。我們在 2019 年沒有。這些東西在我們眼中閃過。現在他們真正的業務產生了真正的底線。所以這就是為什麼我對未來的發展非常樂觀。請記住，所有這些都是在低於 20% 的槓桿下完成的。

And external growth, yes, we have more external growth than anybody. But in relation to the size of our portfolio, external growth is almost an afterthought. We don't need to depend on that. That's a, in my opinion, lower quality source of growth because you're just arbitraging external capital to the internal cost of capital. Ours is organic. So really, really not only feel good about the level of growth going forward, but also the quality of that growth.

外部增長，是的，我們的外部增長比任何人都多。但就我們投資組合的規模而言，外部增長幾乎是事後才想到的。我們不需要依賴它。在我看來，這是一種質量較低的增長來源，因為你只是在將外部資本套利到內部資本成本。我們的是有機的。所以真的，真的不僅對未來的增長水平感覺良好，而且對這種增長的質量也感覺良好。

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ron Kamdem。

Congrats on the quarter. Just thinking about the same-store NOI guidance for '22, any more color on maybe the U.S. versus Europe? And maybe can you compare and contrast how you expect sort of growth for next year in the 2 regions?

祝賀本季度。想想 22 年的同店 NOI 指南，美國與歐洲的對比可能有更多顏色嗎？也許你能比較和對比你對這兩個地區明年的增長預期嗎？

Yes. I'll throw in some thoughts on rent growth. Rent growth in Europe is catching up to the U.S. And we've seen this play out in the past. And frankly, it's catching up slower than we expected because vacancy rates across Europe have been lower than the U.S., but that's taking place now. And I think we -- and Chris, you ought to pile in here, this year, we'll see European rent growth, I think, will exceed that U.S.

是的。我將對租金增長提出一些想法。歐洲的租金增長正在趕上美國。我們過去已經看到了這種情況。坦率地說，它的追趕速度比我們預期的要慢，因為歐洲的空置率一直低於美國，但這正在發生。而且我認為我們——還有克里斯，你應該來這裡，今年，我們將看到歐洲的租金增長，我認為，將超過美國。

Indeed, the vacancy rates are lower and the rent growth is accelerating. So it's an interesting point in time in the European markets.

事實上，空置率較低，租金增長正在加速。所以這是歐洲市場的一個有趣的時間點。

Your next question is from Jon Petersen with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Jon Petersen。

Just wanted to ask an accounting question. On the promote income, is that considered REIT income? Or is that in the taxable REIT subsidiary? And if it is REIT income, is that going to necessitate a large or potentially a special dividend this year, just given the size of the promotes?

只是想問一個會計問題。關於促銷收入，這算不算 REIT 收入？還是在應稅 REIT 子公司中？如果是房地產投資信託基金的收入，考慮到促銷活動的規模，今年是否需要大量或潛在的特別股息？

The vast majority of it does come into the REIT itself versus the taxable REIT subsidiary. When you think just about dividends, as we've talked about in the past, we are -- we have an extremely low payout ratio, 60%-ish is what we've been averaging and similar to what I would expect for 2022. And we're paying out the minimum required. So you should think about our dividend having to grow in line with our underlying earnings. So when you see earnings growing at 22%, those promotes are landing in the OP in our REIT and needs to be reflected in our dividend accordingly.

其中絕大多數確實來自房地產投資信託基金本身，而不是應稅房地產投資信託基金子公司。當你只考慮股息時，正如我們過去所說的那樣，我們的派息率極低，60% 左右是我們的平均水平，與我對 2022 年的預期相似。我們正在支付所需的最低費用。因此，您應該考慮我們的股息必須與我們的基本收益保持一致。因此，當您看到收益增長 22% 時，這些促銷活動正在我們的房地產投資信託基金的 OP 中著陸，並且需要相應地反映在我們的股息中。

Your next question is from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自 Scotiabank 的 Nick Yulico。

In terms of the guidance for this year on strategic capital and the promotes, Tom, can you just give us a feel for what level of asset value appreciation is assumed for the funds this year?

關於今年對戰略資本和促銷的指導，Tom，您能否讓我們感受一下今年基金的資產增值水平是多少？

Sure, Nick. So I'll preface it by there are several factors that go into the promote, not just real estate valuation, there's FX considerations because it's a euro-denominated fund. But that fund also has functional currencies, not in euro, British pound, for example, right? So there's FX activity going on functional and transactional -- transitional.

當然，尼克。因此，我將首先介紹幾個因素，不僅僅是房地產估值，還有外彙考慮，因為它是一個以歐元計價的基金。但是那個基金也有功能貨幣，不是歐元，比如英鎊，對吧？因此，外匯活動正在進行功能性和交易性 - 過渡性的。

Second would be there's debt mark-to-market in there. So a long-winded way of saying that there are a lot of factors that impact it. From a valuation standpoint, we think there's some modest mid-single-digit valuation increase embedded in there. We're taking our best shot at where it's going to land. A lot of variables can impact it, and we're going to update you accordingly as those move around, particularly given how the -- how -- once you -- once the promote exceeds that top hurdle, you can have a lot of variability in either direction just depending on how things go.

其次是那裡的債務按市值計價。因此，一種囉嗦的說法，有很多因素會影響它。從估值的角度來看，我們認為其中嵌入了一些適度的中個位數估值增長。我們正在盡最大努力將它降落在哪裡。很多變量都會影響它，我們將隨著這些變量的變化而相應地更新你，特別是考慮到 - 如何 - 一旦你 - 一旦促銷超過了最高障礙，你可能會有很多變化在任何一個方向上都取決於事情的進展。

So the funds based on third-party appraisals, they're going to be what they're going to be. Interest rates are going to be what they're going to be. FX rates are going to be what they're going to be. We've taken our best shot at estimating those impacts, and we'll keep you posted.

因此，基於第三方評估的資金將成為他們將要成為的樣子。利率將成為他們將要成為的樣子。外匯匯率將成為他們將要成為的樣子。我們已盡最大努力估計這些影響，我們會及時通知您。

Yes. The other thing I would add to that is that we're not assuming cap rate compression. And based on today's values, I would say there's a appraisal lag built into some of these valuations because the appraisers have a hard time keeping up with comps, even today, the market has been so fast moving. So I think there are a couple of layers of protection built in that. And obviously, as Tom explained, once you pass the waterfall, all of the additional value is promotable. So there's a lot of leverage on the upside and also on the downside. But if I were a betting person, I would take the upside on that, not the downside.

是的。我要補充的另一件事是，我們沒有假設上限率壓縮。根據今天的價值，我會說其中一些估值存在評估滯後，因為評估師很難跟上比較，即使在今天，市場發展如此之快。所以我認為其中有幾層保護。顯然，正如湯姆解釋的那樣，一旦你經過瀑布，所有的附加價值都是可以提升的。因此，上行和下行都有很多槓桿作用。但是，如果我是一個賭徒，我會接受這方面的好處，而不是壞處。

Your next question is from Anthony Powell with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼鮑威爾。

Just a follow-up on the promote question. Thanks for the color on 2023 promote. How should we look at this stream of income over the next few years? And should we be valuing promote at a higher multiple than historical, given kind of the recurring -- increasingly recurring nature and the growth of the valuation of the portfolio?

只是對促銷問題的跟進。感謝 2023 年促銷的顏色。我們應該如何看待未來幾年的這種收入流？考慮到經常性——越來越頻繁的性質和投資組合估值的增長，我們是否應該以比歷史更高的倍數估值提升？

Let me take a stab at this. The issue with our promotes is this. We have 2 huge open-ended funds that are promotable. And those are on 3 years promote cycles. So '22 and '23, our big promote year is just like '20 and -- sorry, '19 and '20 were, except more so. So the third year, we have some small funds in that year. This year, for example, is that third year, which is relatively thin. We had -- this past year, we had UKLV in there. So we have some smaller funds in there.

讓我試一試。我們促銷的問題是這樣的。我們有 2 個可推廣的大型開放式基金。這些都是 3 年的推廣週期。所以 22 年和 23 年，我們的大促銷年就像 20 年一樣——抱歉，19 年和 20 年是，除了更多。所以第三年，那年我們有一些小資金。比如今年是第三年，比較瘦。我們有 - 在過去的一年裡，我們在那裡有 UKLV。所以我們那裡有一些較小的資金。

Those funds over time will grow. So this promote picture would become more even. We've also gone through a modernization of our funds terms. And given the investors the option of basically extending the promotable period to the lean years and also new capital coming in is going to have its promote tied to the year that the capital came in as opposed to a set year. So over time, you're going to see these promotes smooth out. It will take some years for them to be perfectly smooth.

這些資金會隨著時間的推移而增長。所以這個宣傳畫面會變得更加均勻。我們還對我們的基金條款進行了現代化改造。鑑於投資者可以選擇將可推廣期基本上延長至淡季，並且新資本的進入將與資本進入的年份而不是固定年份掛鉤。所以隨著時間的推移，你會看到這些促銷活動順利進行。他們需要幾年的時間才能完全順利。

So the way I would think about it is look at the promotes over a 3-year cycle and average them. And I think the guidance that Tom talked about for this year, 2022, is actually not a bad number as sort of thinking about roughly that average over a 3-year period. And as to the valuation of that, look, you guys are -- you guys can do that better than us, but we're not getting anything for that, and we should get something. So because the history is there, you can go back and look at it for 10 years under the new Prologis, 11 years, and assume something as a percentage of AUM.

因此，我的想法是查看 3 年周期內的促銷活動並對其進行平均。我認為湯姆談到的今年 2022 年的指導實際上並不是一個糟糕的數字，就像考慮到 3 年期間的大致平均值一樣。至於估值，你們看，你們可以比我們做得更好，但我們沒有得到任何東西，我們應該得到一些東西。所以因為歷史就在那裡，你可以在新的 Prologis 下回顧 10 年，11 年，並假設 AUM 的百分比。

Historically, I've always used 25 basis points kind of in my head of promotable AUM, with 60% of that going to the bottom line because of our participation programs. So that's the way I think about it in a normalized year, but I think it's going to be much higher than that in this cycle.

從歷史上看，我總是在可推廣的 AUM 中使用 25 個基點，其中 60% 是由於我們的參與計劃而達到的底線。所以這就是我在正常化年份的看法，但我認為它會比這個週期高得多。

And you certainly seen our AUM grow and continue to grow. So the underlying base to Hamid's point, is growing rapidly as well.

您肯定看到我們的 AUM 增長並繼續增長。因此，就哈米德而言，潛在的基礎也在迅速增長。

Your next question is from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Blaine Heck。

I wanted to touch on acquisitions quickly. It looks like you guys came in light this quarter relative to guidance. And I know acquisitions are certainly tougher to forecast than what you're going to be able to do on the development side or even on the disposition side. But wanted to get your thoughts on the acquisition market in general, whether the shortfall this quarter was driven by pricing or anything else specifically. And then any broader commentary regarding your level of interest, especially in large acquisitions in 2022 would be very helpful.

我想快速談談收購。看起來你們在本季度相對於指導有所了解。而且我知道收購肯定比你在開發方面甚至在處置方面能夠做的事情更難預測。但是想了解您對整個收購市場的看法，無論本季度的短缺是由定價還是其他任何具體因素造成的。然後，任何關於你的興趣程度的更廣泛評論，尤其是在 2022 年的大型收購中，都會非常有幫助。

Yes. There was nothing in the quarterly results as indicative of more or less interest. And as you see quarter-to-quarter, these numbers move around quite a bit. We are always in the market. We look at all the deals, big, small portfolios, et cetera. And prices have been moving up. Obviously, there are competitive situations. But I think we're disciplined, like we always have been, with acquisitions. But we got great teams, and we're on every deal.

是的。季度業績中沒有任何跡象表明興趣或多或少。正如你所看到的季度到季度，這些數字變化很大。我們總是在市場上。我們會查看所有交易，無論大小投資組合等等。而且價格一直在上漲。顯然，有競爭的情況。但我認為我們在收購方面一直很自律。但是我們有很棒的團隊，我們在每筆交易上都做得到。

Your next question is from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Michael Carroll。

Can you provide some color on your underwritten development margins? It looks like the margins in the 4Q '21 and 2021 starts is below the in-place pipeline and the recently stabilized assets. Is there something there that's driving those lower? Or is it just conservative estimates?

您能否為您的承保開發利潤提供一些顏色？看起來 21 年第四季度和 2021 年開始的利潤率低於就地管道和最近穩定的資產。有什麼東西在驅使那些更低的嗎？還是只是保守估計？

Well, our margins on starts have historically always been projected to be lower than our actual margins with completion because we don't count on things like super rent growth. And as we talked about earlier or cap rate compression or all those other things that have happened. And obviously, over time, we're using up the cheapest land and buying more and more of our landed margin.

好吧，從歷史上看，我們的開工利潤率一直預計低於我們的實際利潤率，因為我們不指望超級租金增長之類的東西。正如我們之前談到的那樣，上限率壓縮或所有其他已經發生的事情。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們正在用盡最便宜的土地併購買越來越多的土地保證金。

So -- and the kind of margins we've had in the last couple of years have been just unprecedented. So over time, you should expect those kinds of margins to glide to a more normalized level as cap rate compression slows down and rental growth eventually will slow down. Can't keep going at thinking of 20% a year. So that is not at all unusual. There's nothing specific going on that other than mix where in some years, we're developing more here and there, and they're different. And our land bank has different ages in different jurisdictions. So some things has a lot -- has a little bit to do with it, but the general trend has been much higher than a cross cycle kind of margins that we would expect to see.

所以——我們在過去幾年中獲得的利潤是前所未有的。因此，隨著時間的推移，隨著資本化率壓縮放緩和租金增長最終將放緩，您應該預計這些利潤率會下滑到更正常的水平。不能繼續考慮每年 20%。所以這一點也不稀奇。除了混合之外，沒有什麼特別的事情發生，在某些年份，我們在這里和那裡都在開發更多，它們是不同的。而且我們的土地儲備在不同的司法管轄區有不同的年齡。所以有些事情有很多 - 與它有一點關係，但總體趨勢遠高於我們期望看到的跨週期利潤率。

Your next question is from Dave Rodgers with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾德的戴夫羅傑斯。

I wanted to ask about just kind of labor in general. Obviously, from a broader economic standpoint, a big issue for everyone. What are you hearing from your customers in terms of the rebuild of inventory maybe related to labor? How long that might take? And whether labor is getting better or worse for them and how that might be impacting any real estate decisions, if at all?

我想問一下一般的勞動。顯然，從更廣泛的經濟角度來看，這對每個人來說都是一個大問題。您從客戶那裡聽到的關於庫存重建可能與勞動力有關的哪些信息？這可能需要多長時間？以及勞動力對他們來說是變好還是變壞，以及這可能如何影響任何房地產決策（如果有的話）？

Labor is getting worse. Labor has been getting worse actually for 10 years and the pandemic only just made it worse faster. I think that is forcing our customers into deploying more automation because they have to, to get their work done. That requires a lot of capital that many of our customers don't have. So that's a business opportunity for Prologis, is to invest in innovation and robotics and all kinds of other automation issues that help with the labor problem.

勞動力越來越差。勞工實際上已經惡化了 10 年，而大流行只會讓情況變得更快。我認為這迫使我們的客戶部署更多自動化，因為他們必須這樣做才能完成工作。這需要我們的許多客戶所沒有的大量資金。因此，對於 Prologis 來說，這是一個商機，即投資於創新和機器人技術以及有助於解決勞動力問題的各種其他自動化問題。

Also CWI is a major step that we've taken in that regard. But I will tell you this, that more of that technology is deployed in our buildings, the stickier the tenants become and probably they determine the lease will increase and turnover costs will go down. So I think it's good for us long term. But I don't think this labor problem is going to get solved. And it's particularly acute in the U.S. It exists in other parts of the world, but it's particularly acute in the U.S. And there are lots of theories as to the reasons for it, but I'm not smart enough to know which ones make sense and which ones don't.

CWI 也是我們在這方面邁出的重要一步。但我會告訴你，我們的建築物中部署的技術越多，租戶變得越粘，他們可能會確定租約會增加，營業額成本會下降。所以我認為這對我們來說是長期的。但我認為這個勞工問題不會得到解決。它在美國特別嚴重。它存在於世界其他地方，但在美國特別嚴重。關於它的原因有很多理論，但我不夠聰明，不知道哪些是有道理的哪些沒有。

Your next question is from Tom Catherwood with BTIG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Tom Catherwood。

Tom, going back to something you mentioned in your opening remarks, you were talking about the $26 billion build-out potential on your land bank, and you mentioned that it's underpinned by an international opportunity set. Developments obviously jumped in 2021, but they seem to be weighted more towards the U.S. than they were in 2019 and 2020. Is the expectation that Europe could account for a larger percent of the 2022 starts? Or is the opportunity set you were talking about kind of in other geographies?

湯姆，回到你在開場白中提到的事情，你在談論你的土地儲備上 260 億美元的擴建潛力，你提到它是由國際機會集支撐的。發展在 2021 年明顯躍升，但與 2019 年和 2020 年相比，它們似乎更偏向於美國。是否期望歐洲可能佔 2022 年開工的更大百分比？或者你所說的機會集是在其他地區嗎？

Yes. So if you look at the composition of the land bank, our option land and covered land plays, so this is almost 200 million square feet of build out opportunity. it's about 2/3 in the Americas and 1/3 outside of the Americas. So that's the balance. And the pace at which -- the cadence at which we take it down will be opportunity driven.

是的。因此，如果您查看土地儲備、我們的期權土地和覆蓋土地的構成，那麼這幾乎是 2 億平方英尺的擴建機會。在美洲約佔 2/3，在美洲以外約佔 1/3。所以這就是平衡。以及我們降低它的節奏將是機會驅動的。

The other thing I would say is that if you look at our 20-year track record of development profits, actually, 2/3 have come from overseas and 1/3 from the U.S. And again, that's a differentiator for Prologis, where we just have a bigger playing field and to make money in.

我要說的另一件事是，如果您查看我們 20 年的開發利潤記錄，實際上，2/3 來自海外，1/3 來自美國。再說一次，這是 Prologis 的一個差異化因素，我們只是在那裡擁有更大的競爭環境並從中賺錢。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

您的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Vince Tibone。

I want to follow up on the lease mark-to-market. Could you share the estimated mark-to-market on a cash basis? And also share the typical annual escalators you are getting on leases today.

我想跟進按市值計價的租賃。您能否以現金方式分享估計的市值？並分享您今天租用的典型年度自動扶梯。

Yes. On the cash in place to market today is right around 30%. And from an escalator standpoint, I think what we're seeing today with escalators would clearly be in the 3s. And in certain markets, it's in the 4s and potentially even higher. So I would tell you there -- when we think about all this, escalators are certainly important. But at the end of the day, our teams are trying to drive the highest cash flows at the end of that lease. Bumps are a part of that. Starting rents are a part of that. TIs are a part of that, right? It all goes into the mix. And so while it's important to look at bumps, it's not necessarily the sole determinant of the economics you're driving out of leases.

是的。今天上市的現金約為 30%。從自動扶梯的角度來看，我認為我們今天看到的自動扶梯顯然是 3s。在某些市場，它是 4s 甚至更高。所以我會告訴你——當我們考慮到這一切時，自動扶梯當然很重要。但歸根結底，我們的團隊正試圖在租約結束時推動最高的現金流。顛簸是其中的一部分。起始租金是其中的一部分。 TI 是其中的一部分，對吧？這一切都融入其中。因此，儘管查看顛簸很重要，但它不一定是您擺脫租約的經濟因素的唯一決定因素。

We are NPV investors on leasing. And the profile of it is usually our flexibility to deal with the tenants' preferences actually allows us to extract a higher NPV.

我們是租賃方面的 NPV 投資者。它的概況通常是我們處理租戶偏好的靈活性實際上允許我們提取更高的 NPV。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Mueller。

I'm wondering, is there a big difference today in terms of the margins you're expecting on build-to-suits versus spec developments?

我想知道，就您對定制套裝和規格開發的預期利潤率而言，今天有很大的不同嗎？

Mike, I'd say there's no greater difference than there always have been. And you underwrite these at 15% to 20% on spec and roughly 10% on build-to-suit. And those numbers will move around a little bit based on risk. But if you're asking about the differentiation between the 2, things really haven't changed. Obviously, the outcomes have changed because the margins are much, much higher.

邁克，我想說沒有比以往更大的不同了。而且您以 15% 到 20% 的規格承保，大約 10% 的定制承保。這些數字會根據風險有所變動。但是，如果您要問兩者之間的區別，那實際上並沒有改變。顯然，結果已經改變，因為利潤率要高得多。

Your next question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I had just a question on development costs. What sort of inflation trends are you seeing kind of starting this year? How did that compare to '21? And what sort of bottlenecks or issues are you seeing kind of in your own supply chain, getting all the stuff you need to kind of build everything you want to build this year?

我有一個關於開發成本的問題。從今年開始，你看到什麼樣的通脹趨勢？這與'21相比如何？您在自己的供應鏈中看到了什麼樣的瓶頸或問題，獲得了構建您今年想要構建的所有東西所需的所有東西？

Yes, Steve. So in the U.S., in 2021, there are total shell construction cost increases of about 31%, and that's on a market-wide basis. We were able to mitigate about 7% of that increase or 7 percentage points of the increase. So our net increase that we absorbed last year was 24%. So we feel like most of that is a competitive advantage against our competitors. And there's a lot behind this in terms of what do we see for this year. Tough to say how that plays out. But our teams are considering a 10% to 12% additional shell construction increase for '22.

是的，史蒂夫。因此，在美國，到 2021 年，外殼建造總成本增加了約 31%，這是在整個市場的基礎上。我們能夠減輕大約 7% 的增長或 7 個百分點的增長。因此，我們去年吸收的淨增長為 24%。因此，我們認為其中大部分是對我們競爭對手的競爭優勢。就我們今年看到的情況而言，這背後有很多東西。很難說結果如何。但是我們的團隊正在考慮將 22 年的外殼結構增加 10% 到 12%。

By the way, that -- let me tie that to some of the earlier questions. When you're getting this kind of escalation on replacement costs -- and by the way, I would say land prices have gone up even at a higher rate than that, it's nice to own already 1 billion square feet of this kind of real estate. So particularly all the other people trying to get into the same business, driving down cap rates at the same time that replacement cost rents are going up is a nice place to be. That is not brilliance, that's just dumb luck.

順便說一句，讓我把它與前面的一些問題聯繫起來。當你在重置成本上得到這種升級時——順便說一下，我想說地價甚至以更高的速度上漲，擁有已經 10 億平方英尺的這種房地產真是太好了.因此，特別是所有其他試圖進入同一業務的人，在重置成本租金上漲的同時降低上限利率是一個不錯的地方。那不是才華橫溢，那隻是愚蠢的運氣。

Your next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Caitlin Burrows。

I guess just considering your expectations for '22 and the guidance you've laid out, can you give any details on what portion is already known, like, for example, leases signed in '21 that will commence in '22? You already know that timing and rate. But for the parts that you don't already know, like lease commitments in the second half or pace of development stabilization, what sort of assumptions are you making? Is it that the strength of '21 stays the same, improves further or slows? And kind of what's driving that?

我想僅考慮您對 22 年的期望和您制定的指導，您能否詳細說明哪些部分是已知的，例如，21 年簽署的租約將於 22 年開始？您已經知道時間和速率。但是對於你還不知道的部分，比如下半年的租賃承諾或發展穩定的步伐，你做了什麼樣的假設？ '21 的強度是保持不變，進一步提高還是放緩？是什麼推動了這一點？

I would say, Caitlin, there are very few things that haven't happened already that will affect 2022, one way or another. Because even if we get a wrong on rental change on one side or the other, we put away so many of our rollovers already for 2022 that there isn't that much opportunity on the margin to sort of affect that in a big way. So there's 6% leasing, basically remaining to be done. And that's going to happen on average in the middle of the year. So that's really 3% of our 97%. It's just not going to move the numbers around that much. And obviously, development stabilizations and all that are more of a future year type of thing. Again, they occurred during the year. So I would say our volatility in the short term, meaning this year, is going to be relatively modest. And you can take that answer to the bank pretty much at any year at this time.

我想說，凱特琳，很少有事情還沒有發生，會以某種方式影響 2022 年。因為即使我們在一方面或另一方面的租金變化上出錯了，我們已經為 2022 年擱置了很多展期，以至於沒有太多機會在很大程度上影響這一點。所以有6%的租賃，基本上還有待完成。平均而言，這將在年中發生。所以這實際上是我們 97% 的 3%。它只是不會使數字移動那麼多。顯然，發展穩定和所有這些都更像是未來一年的事情。同樣，它們發生在這一年。所以我想說我們在短期內的波動，也就是今年，將相對溫和。你幾乎可以在任何一年的這個時候把這個答案交給銀行。

And then I'd go back just to the in-place to market that $1.2 billion of NOI that we will capture with no market rent growth, that gives you a high level of certainty regarding the same-store growth going forward. So if the things you need to think about is if rent growth outperforms in 2022, that's going to take that $1.2 billion up. I mentioned, I think that 36% in place to market today is going to cross 40% by the time we get to the end of the year. It's that sort of predictability, I believe, that underpins our confidence of why our growth will be -- continue to be sector-leading for many years to come.

然後我會回到原地推銷 12 億美元的 NOI，我們將在沒有市場租金增長的情況下捕獲這些 NOI，這讓您對未來的同店增長有高度的確定性。因此，如果您需要考慮的事情是，如果租金增長在 2022 年表現出色，那將增加 12 億美元。我提到過，我認為到今年年底時，今天上市的 36% 將超過 40%。我相信，正是這種可預測性支撐了我們對為什麼我們的增長將——在未來許多年繼續保持行業領先地位的信心。

Your next question is from Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Derek Johnston。

Are rising rents and revenue growth still handily outpacing the supply chain and efficiencies, inflation and really overall expense growth? How do you view rents versus expenses -- linked expenses playing out in 2022?

租金上漲和收入增長是否仍然輕鬆超過供應鍊和效率、通貨膨脹以及真正的整體支出增長？您如何看待 2022 年的租金與費用——相關費用？

I'm not sure I understand the question completely. Expenses are obviously going up as well, but they're going up more sort of in line with general inflation and real estate rent inflation in logistics has been certainly higher than that, if you want to describe it as inflation.

我不確定我是否完全理解這個問題。費用顯然也在上漲，但它們的上漲更像是與一般通貨膨脹一致，如果您想將其描述為通貨膨脹，物流中的房地產租金通貨膨脹肯定會高於此。

The other thing is that in terms of overall logistic cost, rents, even with the recent escalation, are 3%, 4% of the total picture. So cost of drivers, cost of fuel, cost of transportation, all of those things are much bigger factors in terms of our customers' cost structure. So there is not as much sensitivity to the real estate cost, if there is a commensurate increase in productivity that comes along with that. I think that's what you asked. But we'll give you an opportunity to clarify here if that's not what you asked.

另一件事是，就整體物流成本而言，租金即使最近有所升級，也佔整體的 3%、4%。因此，就我們客戶的成本結構而言，司機成本、燃料成本、運輸成本，所有這些都是更大的因素。因此，如果隨之而來的生產力相應提高，那麼對房地產成本的敏感性就沒有那麼高了。我想這就是你問的。但是，如果這不是您所要求的，我們會給您一個機會在這裡澄清。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Korchman with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Emmanuel Korchman。

It's Michael Bilerman. Hamid, I wanted to come back to -- you gave an answer where you said you're not going to predict cap rate trends because you've been consistently wrong the last 5 years. And I want to sort of dive into sort of the components that made you wrong over the last 5 years. I get rents has eased up dramatically and NOI is so important as a numerator. But the denominator, the cap rate really does impact your capital allocation decisions, what to buy, what to sell, what to develop, how you raise capital on the balance sheet and all those sort of inputs.

是邁克爾·比勒曼。哈米德，我想回到 - 你給出了一個答案，你說你不會預測上限利率趨勢，因為你在過去的 5 年裡一直都錯了。我想深入探討在過去 5 年裡讓你犯錯的部分。我得到租金大幅下降，NOI 作為分子非常重要。但是分母，上限利率確實會影響您的資本分配決策，購買什麼，出售什麼，開發什麼，您如何在資產負債表上籌集資金以及所有這些投入。

So I guess, how are you thinking about it going forward? You must have a view. And so I'm just trying to understand maybe some of the components that made you wrong over the last 5 years and how that informs your decision going forward.

所以我想，你如何看待它的未來？你必須有一個觀點。因此，我只是想了解在過去 5 年中讓你犯錯的一些因素，以及這些因素如何影響你的決定。

Look, we've taken our best shot and we do have a view on these things. After all, we give you guidance and we've done that for 25 years. So we do have a view. And our view has always been -- not always, but in the last 10 years, as far as I remember, is that most of us in this room sort of grew up in the '80s and '90s and cap rates were 9% and 10% for logistics in those days. So as the cap rates have marched down in the last 20 years to where they are today, I don't know, 3% to 4%, we are anchored in the past. So it always feels like it's a little expensive and all that.

看，我們已經盡力而為，我們確實對這些事情有看法。畢竟，我們為您提供指導，我們已經這樣做了 25 年。所以我們確實有一個看法。我們的觀點一直是 - 並非總是如此，但據我所知，在過去的 10 年裡，我們這個房間裡的大多數人都是在 80 年代和 90 年代長大的，上限率為 9%， 10% 用於當時的物流。因此，隨著過去 20 年的上限利率下降到今天的水平，我不知道從 3% 到 4%，我們已經錨定在過去。所以總覺得有點貴，等等。

But there are a couple of things that have changed. Logistics have -- first of all, general interest rates and all that have driven capital market returns down for everything, stocks, bonds, everything, including real estate. But I think there has been a better appreciation of logistics real estate as an asset class that has caused logistic cap rates to compress further than maybe some other property tax that have compressed less or in more recent years, gone the other way. I don't see anything stopping that part of it.

但是有幾件事發生了變化。物流首先是一般利率以及所有導致資本市場回報下降的所有因素，股票，債券，包括房地產在內的一切。但我認為，物流房地產作為一種資產類別得到了更好的升值，這導致物流上限率比其他一些近年來壓縮較少或最近幾年的房地產稅進一步壓縮，相反。我看不出有什麼能阻止它的那一部分。

So your guess is as good as mine and with respect to long-term interest rates and their direction. But I can tell you, the weight of the money is accelerating. It's not slowing down. The other thing is that I think if you're uncertain about the inflation outlook, which is what a lot of the discussion is, is it inflation, is it supply chain, is it short term, is it long term, not a bad thing to own modestly leveraged real estate in an asset class that's in the equilibrium, actually better than equilibrium, a couple of hundred basis points tighter than equilibrium, when you have replacement costs that give you that buffer.

因此，就長期利率及其方向而言，您的猜測與我的猜測一樣好。但我可以告訴你，錢的重量正在加速。它並沒有放緩。另一件事是，我認為如果你不確定通脹前景，這是很多討論的內容，是通脹，是供應鏈，是短期的，是長期的，不是壞事當您擁有可以為您提供緩衝的重置成本時，在處於均衡狀態的資產類別中擁有適度槓桿的房地產，實際上比均衡狀態更好，比均衡狀態要緊幾百個基點。

So we have the buffer of the mark-to-market in the 30% range that Tom talked about. But we also have the buffer of replacement costs going up, which Gene talked about. That's just the future buffer that we haven't started talking about yet. So I think rental score -- I have been, consistently in our company, low on rental projections, but higher than all my colleagues. Low compared to what actually happened, but higher than all my colleagues. And I expect that to continue for some time. But I think it's imprudent in a year where you've had this kind of spectacular rental growth to go out there and project 10 more years of that.

因此，我們在 Tom 談到的 30% 範圍內擁有按市值計價的緩衝。但我們也有重置成本上升的緩衝，這是 Gene 談到的。這只是我們尚未開始談論的未來緩衝區。所以我認為租金分數——我一直在我們公司，租金預測很低，但比我所有的同事都高。與實際發生的情況相比較低，但高於我所有的同事。我預計這種情況會持續一段時間。但我認為，在租金出現如此驚人的增長的一年裡，去那裡預測 10 年以上是不謹慎的。

I mean -- and so we run our business assuming more modest, sort of more closer to trend line type of dynamics. And if it works out better than that, we'll report it to you every quarter. So we try to get it as close to the pin. And as the pin moves, we'll move. So I don't know if that's an answer to your question or not.

我的意思是 - 所以我們經營我們的業務時假設更溫和，更接近趨勢線類型的動態。如果效果比這更好，我們將每季度向您報告一次。所以我們試圖讓它盡可能靠近引腳。隨著別針移動，我們也會移動。所以我不知道這是否是您問題的答案。

One other thing I would tell you, and I think you were the -- is this the last question? Yes, you were the last question. So maybe this is a wrap up. Look, as you think about our company, it's really important to get cap rates right, really important, at least in the long term to get rental growth and all those things right. And we will outcompete on those bases all day long. But this company is increasingly becoming a multiple product line cash flow generating type of business. Tom mentioned $1 billion coming out of our private capital franchise, with essentially no capital because our capital is our co-investment, which is in the rent business.

還有一件事我要告訴你，我認為你是——這是最後一個問題嗎？是的，你是最後一個問題。所以也許這是一個總結。看，當您想到我們公司時，正確地獲得上限利率非常重要，非常重要，至少從長期來看，以實現租金增長和所有這些事情正確。我們將整天在這些基地上勝過競爭。但這家公司正日益成為一種多產品線產生現金流的企業。湯姆提到我們的私人資本特許經營權中有 10 億美元，基本上沒有資本，因為我們的資本是我們的共同投資，即租賃業務。

So the Essentials business, we sort of glossed over it, but it's a $75 million a year business now. It can be a $1 billion business. The EV business can be a $1 billion business. I'm not saying that it is or whether it's going to happen in 2 years. But increasingly, we're building these cash flows on top of the base real estate business because eventually, the real estate business will slow down. But the ability to do business with those customers that use our real estate, I think, is a runway for us for multiple decades. So that's what's really exciting about where we are today.

所以 Essentials 業務，我們在某種程度上掩蓋了它，但它現在是每年 7500 萬美元的業務。這可能是一項價值 10 億美元的業務。電動汽車業務可能是一項價值 10 億美元的業務。我並不是說它會發生，或者它是否會在 2 年內發生。但我們越來越多地將這些現金流建立在基礎房地產業務之上，因為最終，房地產業務將放緩。但我認為，與那些使用我們房地產的客戶開展業務的能力是我們幾十年來的一條跑道。這就是我們今天所處的位置真正令人興奮的地方。

Thank you for your interest in our company, and we look forward to talking to you soon.

感謝您對我們公司的關注，我們期待盡快與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。