Prologis Inc (PLD) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Prologis first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我的名字是布倫特，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Prologis 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It's now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Tracy Ward, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我很高興將今天的電話轉給投資者關係董事總經理 Tracy Ward。請繼續。

Thanks, Brent, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations.

謝謝，布倫特，大家早上好。歡迎參加我們的 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。補充文件可在我們的網站 prologis.com 的投資者關係下獲得。

I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions.

我想聲明，本次電話會議將包含聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於對 Prologis 經營所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or SEC filings. Additionally, our first quarter earnings press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP measures. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

前瞻性陳述不能保證業績，實際經營業績可能受多種因素影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們提交的 10-K 或 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。此外，我們的第一季度收益新聞稿和補充確實包含財務指標，例如非 GAAP 指標的 FFO 和 EBITDA。並且根據 Reg G，我們對這些措施進行了調整。

I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our new CFO who will cover results, real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, Gary Anderson, Chris Caton, Mike Curless, Dan Letter, Ed Nekritz, Tom Olinger, Gene Reilly and Colleen Mckeown are also here with us today.

我要歡迎我們的新任首席財務官蒂姆·阿恩特 (Tim Arndt)，他將負責業績、實時市場狀況和指導。 Hamid Moghadam、Gary Anderson、Chris Caton、Mike Curless、Dan Letter、Ed Nekritz、Tom Olinger、Gene Reilly 和 Colleen Mckeown 今天也與我們同在。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim. Tim?

有了這個，我會把電話交給蒂姆。蒂姆？

Thanks, Tracy. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our call. The strong performance we realized through 2021 has continued into the new year. Today, as the production and distribution of goods continue to be disrupted, our customers find themselves struggling to simply keep up rather than focus on optimizing for resilience.

謝謝，特蕾西。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。我們在 2021 年實現的強勁表現一直持續到新的一年。今天，隨著商品的生產和分銷繼續受到干擾，我們的客戶發現自己很難簡單地跟上步伐，而不是專注於優化彈性。

This morning, we released our first quarterly results which exceeded our expectations across the board. Core FFO was $1.09 per share ahead of our forecast. Rent change on rollover was 37% on a net effective basis and was led by the U.S. at 42%. Notably, our Southern California and New York, New Jersey portfolios realized 86% and 67% rent change during the quarter, respectively.

今天早上，我們發布了第一個季度業績，全面超出了我們的預期。核心 FFO 為每股 1.09 美元，高於我們的預測。在淨有效基礎上，展期租金變化為 37%，以美國為首，為 42%。值得注意的是，我們的南加州和紐約、新澤西投資組合在本季度分別實現了 86% 和 67% 的租金變化。

We ended the quarter at 97.4% occupancy, holding average occupancy flat to the fourth quarter of '21, counter to the typical first quarter decline. These operating results drove cash same-store NOI growth to a record 8.7%. As we've been highlighting, the positive news and market rent is adding to our lease mark-to-market now at 47%. This equates to $1.6 billion of annual NOI as leases roll to market or over $2 per share of earnings that will drop to the bottom line even with no additional rent growth. Given our market rent forecast and expected rent change, the lease mark-to-market could exceed 50% by year-end.

我們在本季度結束時的入住率為 97.4%，與 21 年第四季度的平均入住率持平，與第一季度的典型下降相反。這些經營業績推動現金同店 NOI 增長達到創紀錄的 8.7%。正如我們一直在強調的那樣，積極的消息和市場租金正在增加我們的租賃按市值計價，目前為 47%。這相當於每年 16 億美元的 NOI，因為租賃推向市場或每股收益超過 2 美元，即使沒有額外的租金增長，也將跌至底線。鑑於我們的市場租金預測和預期租金變化，到年底租賃按市值計算可能超過 50%。

We started over $1 billion in new development during the quarter across 32 projects and 16 markets, which are expected to generate over $400 million in value creation. The build-out potential of our land bank now stands at $28 billion or approximately 200 million square feet. Most importantly, the balance sheet remains in excellent shape. Our debt-to-market cap is very low at 14%. We have nearly $7 billion of liquidity and over $18 billion of investment capacity [across] Prologis and our open-ended funds.

我們在本季度開始了超過 10 億美元的新開發項目，涉及 32 個項目和 16 個市場，預計將創造超過 4 億美元的價值。目前，我們土地儲備的擴建潛力為 280 億美元或約 2 億平方英尺。最重要的是，資產負債表保持良好狀態。我們的債務市值非常低，只有 14%。我們在 Prologis 和我們的開放式基金中擁有近 70 億美元的流動性和超過 180 億美元的投資能力。

Turning to our markets. Vacancy is at all-time lows in most of our geographies. During the quarter, we signed 60 million square feet of leases and issued proposals on 90 million square feet as customers continue to compete for the little space that remains. Supply chains have yet to returned to normal as measured by in-stock rates, equipment lead times and active dialogue with our customers. While the flow of goods has improved, the inventory to sales ratio remains more than 10% below pre-pandemic levels, inventories need to not only make up for this 10% but build an incremental 10% in safety stock. And even if retail sales declined 5% as consumers shift their spending to experiences versus goods, we project that the market will still require an incremental 800 million square feet of space in the U.S. alone.

轉向我們的市場。我們大部分地區的空置率都處於歷史最低點。在本季度，我們簽署了 6000 萬平方英尺的租約，並發布了 9000 萬平方英尺的提案，因為客戶繼續爭奪剩餘的小空間。從庫存率、設備交貨時間和與客戶的積極對話來看，供應鏈尚未恢復正常。雖然商品流通有所改善，但存銷比仍比疫情前水平低 10% 以上，庫存不僅要彌補這 10%，還需要增加 10% 的安全庫存。即使隨著消費者將支出轉向體驗而不是商品，零售額下降了 5%，我們預計僅在美國，市場仍將需要增加 8 億平方英尺的空間。

As for supply, we are reducing our deliveries forecast for the year to 375 million square feet as developers struggle to deliver on time due to the lack of materials and labor, a condition we expect to continue throughout the year. Because the supply story can become nuanced, we believe the best way to understand it is by comparing current vacancy in the market, including the development pipeline, the trailing net absorption.

至於供應，我們將今年的交付量預測下調至 3.75 億平方英尺，因為開發商由於缺乏材料和勞動力而難以按時交付，我們預計這種情況將持續到全年。由於供應情況可能會變得微妙，我們認為了解它的最佳方式是比較當前市場的空缺情況，包括開發管道、尾隨淨吸收。

We are calling this true month of supply or TMS. Historically, in our 30 U.S. markets, the average number of true months to absorb this view of vacancy has been 36 during expansionary periods. Today, that figure is 16 months less than half. By contrast, we analyze supply in the next 20 non-Prologis markets and see approximately 30 true months of supply.

我們稱之為真正的供應月或 TMS。從歷史上看，在我們的 30 個美國市場中，在擴張期吸收這種空缺觀點的真實月份平均為 36 個。今天，這個數字是 16 個月不到一半。相比之下，我們分析了未來 20 個非 Prologis 市場的供應情況，並看到大約 30 個真實月份的供應情況。

Our research team will be releasing a paper further declaring this unique perspective next month. This leads us to vacancy where we forecast rates to remain at record lows in our U.S. and global markets, upholding the strong environment for continued new rent growth.

我們的研究團隊將在下個月發表一篇論文，進一步闡明這一獨特觀點。這導致我們出現空置率，我們預測美國和全球市場的利率將保持在創紀錄的低點，為新的租金持續增長提供了強勁的環境。

During the quarter, market rents in the U.S. grew by 8.5% and 6.5% globally. Given this pace in our outlook on demand, we're revising our annual rent growth forecast to 22% in the U.S. and 20% globally, in line with 2021. This rent growth was the main driver of value increases during the quarter, which measured 9.5% globally. The uplift in Europe was a record 6.3% with strong appreciation across all markets, while the U.S. increased 10.3% during the quarter following the significant 42% increase in 2021.

本季度，美國市場租金增長 8.5%，全球市場租金增長 6.5%。鑑於我們對需求的展望，我們正在將我們的年度租金增長預測修正為美國的 22% 和全球的 20%，與 2021 年保持一致。租金增長是本季度價值增長的主要驅動力，衡量全球 9.5%。歐洲的漲幅達到創紀錄的 6.3%，所有市場均強勁升值，而美國在 2021 年大幅增長 42% 之後，本季度增長了 10.3%。

Still, while logistics markets remain strong, there are a number of macro headlines that we're monitoring. We are closely watching the events in Ukraine and the impact it's having on our colleagues and operations. So far, we haven't seen any impact on our business. And as we've highlighted in the past, these disruptive events often have the effect of increasing demand for warehouse space. Prologis and our employees have been contributing to refugee assistance efforts, including providing space to local nonprofits under our space for good program and staying close to our colleagues personally affected by the conflict.

儘管如此，儘管物流市場依然強勁，但我們正在關註一些宏觀頭條新聞。我們正在密切關注烏克蘭的事件及其對我們的同事和運營的影響。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到對我們的業務產生任何影響。正如我們過去強調的那樣，這些破壞性事件通常會增加對倉庫空間的需求。 Prologis 和我們的員工一直在為難民援助工作做出貢獻，包括根據我們的空間為當地非營利組織提供空間，以實現良好的計劃，並與受衝突影響的同事保持密切聯繫。

We are also watching both interest rates and inflation. On interest rates, we have been well ahead of refinancing this for some time, addressing substantially all of our debt maturities through 2026 and taking advantage of low interest rates. Today, our weighted average interest rate is 1.7%, which has an average of 10 years remaining. And as far as inflation, we operate over 1 billion square feet of real estate where we find replacement costs rising at multiples of inflation. While rents have been increasing from secular tailwinds for some time, inflation will create a pricing umbrella for even further rent growth.

我們也在關注利率和通貨膨脹。在利率方面，我們已經提前一段時間進行再融資，在 2026 年之前解決我們幾乎所有到期的債務，並利用低利率。今天，我們的加權平均利率為 1.7%，平均還剩 10 年。就通貨膨脹而言，我們經營著超過 10 億平方英尺的房地產，我們發現重置成本以通貨膨脹的倍數上升。雖然一段時間以來租金一直在順風上漲，但通貨膨脹將為租金的進一步增長創造一個定價保護傘。

Taking these macro conditions and our strong first quarter performance into consideration, we have raised our '22 guidance as follows: we are increasing the low end of our average occupancy forecast to a new range of 96.75% to 97.5%. We expect rent change on rollover to increase throughout the year driving net effective same-store growth to a range between 6.25% and 7%, and cash same-store growth to a range between 7.25% and 8%.

考慮到這些宏觀條件和我們強勁的第一季度業績，我們將 22 年的指引上調如下：我們將平均入住率預測的低端提高到 96.75% 至 97.5% 的新範圍。我們預計全年租金變動將增加，推動淨有效同店增長至 6.25% 至 7% 之間，現金同店增長至 7.25% 至 8% 之間。

Given the increase in asset values in Europe and our PELF venture, we are increasing our net promote guidance to $460 million, most of which is occurring in the third quarter, and we are also increasing strategic capital revenues excluding promotes to a range of $550 million to $565 million. Combined, our strategic capital business will generate over $1 billion in revenue this year. We are maintaining our guidance range for acquisitions of $700 million to $1.2 billion as well as our development starts range of $4.5 billion to $5 billion.

鑑於歐洲資產價值的增長和我們的 PELF 合資企業，我們將淨促銷指導提高到 4.6 億美元，其中大部分發生在第三季度，我們還將戰略資本收入（不包括促銷）增加到 5.5 億美元至 5.65 億美元。加起來，我們的戰略資本業務今年將產生超過 10 億美元的收入。我們維持 7 億至 12 億美元的收購指導範圍，以及 45 億至 50 億美元的開發開工範圍。

While we often increase or narrow deployment guidance as the quarters progress and notwithstanding the strong demand we see across our markets, we've elected to maintain our starts guidance recognizing certain factors that are outside of our control, such as labor availability. We are increasing our disposition guidance by $400 million, reflective of both values and the strong selling environment. We expect to generate $1.7 billion of retained cash flow after dividends, an impressive amount given the 25% dividend increase we announced during the quarter.

儘管我們經常隨著季度的進展而增加或縮小部署指導，儘管我們看到整個市場的需求強勁，但我們選擇維持我們的啟動指導，認識到某些我們無法控制的因素，例如勞動力可用性。我們將我們的處置指導增加了 4 億美元，這既反映了價值觀，也反映了強勁的銷售環境。我們預計股息後將產生 17 億美元的留存現金流，鑑於我們在本季度宣布的 25% 的股息增長，這一數字令人印象深刻。

Overall, we've increased the midpoint of our core FFO guidance by $0.08 to a range of $5.10 to $5.16 per share. Core FFO, excluding promotes will range from $4.50 to $4.56 per share, representing 11% growth from 2021 at the midpoint and driven by our same-store increase. Over the last few quarters, and outreach we've had with analysts and investors, we've reiterated what we hope is a clear picture of our differentiators. It starts with a customer-first mindset, the unique approach in the sector, and we found great opportunity in our scale and are only beginning to realize its potential.

總體而言，我們將核心 FFO 指導的中點提高了 0.08 美元，達到每股 5.10 美元至 5.16 美元的範圍。不包括促銷的核心 FFO 將在每股 4.50 美元至 4.56 美元之間，較 2021 年中點增長 11%，並受我們同店增長的推動。在過去幾個季度，以及我們與分析師和投資者的接觸中，我們重申了我們希望清楚地了解我們的差異化因素。它始於客戶至上的心態，該行業的獨特方法，我們在我們的規模中發現了巨大的機會，並且才剛剛開始意識到它的潛力。

For example, our procurement capabilities continue to be a significant advantage as we've secured both materials and pricing of various components, extending deeper into the products needed to fully stabilize our projects. We estimate that our procurement efforts have allowed us to deliver projects 4 to 8 weeks ahead of our competition and at 7% to 8% lower costs.

例如，我們的採購能力仍然是一個顯著優勢，因為我們已經確保了各種組件的材料和定價，更深入地擴展到完全穩定我們的項目所需的產品。我們估計，我們的採購工作使我們能夠比競爭對手提前 4 到 8 週交付項目，並且成本降低了 7% 到 8%。

In our essentials business, we're working to provide end-to-end solutions for our customers beyond the real estate, which is providing new sources of revenue. This includes energy solutions where we are leading the way with solar, storage and EV charging. And notably, we crossed 300 megawatts of power production this quarter and will add another 20% by year-end, dramatically accelerating our pace.

在我們的必需品業務中，我們正在努力為房地產以外的客戶提供端到端解決方案，這提供了新的收入來源。這包括我們在太陽能、儲能和電動汽車充電方面處於領先地位的能源解決方案。值得注意的是，我們本季度的發電量超過了 300 兆瓦，到年底將再增加 20%，大大加快了我們的步伐。

Additionally, we're innovating with workforce solutions to serve our communities and tackle the acute shortage of labor through our community workforce initiative. This program has trained over 13,000 workers to date across 15 markets. These efforts are a logical progression of our ESG leadership and are integrated with our premier global portfolio, industry-leading cost structure, strong balance sheet and strategic capital platform. We continue to believe our best days lie ahead and look forward to reporting out on our progress.

此外，我們正在創新勞動力解決方案，以服務我們的社區，並通過我們的社區勞動力計劃解決勞動力嚴重短缺的問題。迄今為止，該計劃已在 15 個市場培訓了 13,000 多名工人。這些努力是我們 ESG 領導地位的合乎邏輯的進步，並與我們一流的全球投資組合、行業領先的成本結構、強大的資產負債表和戰略資本平台相結合。我們仍然相信我們最好的日子還在後面，並期待著報告我們的進展。

With that, I'd like to pass the call back to the operator for your questions.

有了這個，我想將電話轉回給接線員，詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Jamie Feldman with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jamie Feldman。

Hamid, I'd like to get your thoughts on where you think cap rates and asset values are heading, given the move higher in financing costs we've seen this year? I'm also hoping you can discuss Prologis' appetite for acquisitions with $18 billion of investment capacity and your positive fundamental outlook. I'm not sure how much you can comment on the Mileway bid that's been in the press, but any color you can provide on that transaction. What you would or would not like in that portfolio or even the final pricing on that transaction, would be really helpful.

哈米德，鑑於我們今年看到的融資成本上升，我想談談你認為上限利率和資產價值走向何方？我也希望你能討論一下 Prologis 對 180 億美元投資能力的收購的興趣以及你積極的基本面前景。我不確定您可以對媒體上的 Mileway 出價發表多少評論，但您可以為該交易提供任何顏色。您在該投資組合中想要或不想要什麼，甚至該交易的最終定價，都會非常有幫助。

That was pretty good, Jamie. You got 3 questions into 1. First, on your question, I think cap rates are a little tricky. I actually think cap rates are going to hold because the mark-to-markets are so large. So every quarter that goes by, even if the underlying cap rates of leases that market were to go up, the actual cap rate is unlikely to go up because there's so much mark-to-market that increases from quarter-to-quarter. So I don't know if your question literally meant cap rates or cap rates for deals that market. If it was the latter, I would think that they would go up a bit, but that's certainly not the major vector driving those cap rates.

那太好了，傑米。您在 1 中得到了 3 個問題。首先，關於您的問題，我認為上限費率有點棘手。實際上，我認為上限利率將保持不變，因為按市價計算是如此之大。因此，每過去一個季度，即使該市場租賃的基本上限利率上升，實際上限利率也不太可能上升，因為逐季度增加瞭如此多的按市值計算。所以我不知道你的問題是字面意思是市場交易的上限利率還是上限利率。如果是後者，我認為它們會上漲一點，但這肯定不是推動這些上限利率的主要因素。

Our general appetite for acquisitions is always the same. We reluctantly provide guidance on acquisitions. You've heard me say that before that our acquisition guidance in any given year can be $0 to $10 billion, and we've exceeded it on both ends in the past. So I wouldn't read too much about our acquisition guidance because we don't have a budget to which we acquire.

我們對收購的總體興趣始終如一。我們不情願地提供收購指導。你聽我說過，在此之前，我們在任何一年的收購指導都可能是 0 到 100 億美元，過去我們在兩端都超過了它。因此，我不會過多閱讀我們的採購指南，因為我們沒有採購預算。

However, and this sort of goes to your question on Mileway, which I can't really answer directly, but I think it will give you the -- our philosophy. We do not comment on market rumors, but we look at every single deal of any significance that happens in any of our markets. You would expect us to. And usually, the 3 criteria that we look at are: number one, fits with the portfolio in terms of quality and location; the second would be valuation and economics and returns and things of that nature; and third, we look at a process and determine whether it's a process we can be successful in or not. And that's how we analyze and prioritize our time. We did not talk to any reporters in connection with the Mileway transaction, we never do. But you never know who talks to reporters and for what reason. So let's just leave it at that.

然而，這就是你在 Mileway 上的問題，我不能直接回答，但我認為它會給你——我們的哲學。我們不對市場傳言發表評論，但我們會關注在我們的任何市場中發生的每一筆具有重要意義的交易。你會期望我們這樣做。通常，我們關注的 3 個標準是：第一，在質量和位置方面符合投資組合；第二個是估值、經濟、回報和那種性質的東西；第三，我們查看一個過程並確定它是否是我們可以成功的過程。這就是我們分析和優先考慮我們的時間的方式。我們沒有就 Mileway 交易與任何記者交談，我們從未這樣做過。但你永遠不知道誰與記者交談以及出於什麼原因。所以讓我們就這樣吧。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的邁克爾戈德史密斯。

Rents continue to grow, lease mark-to-market reach 47%, net effective rents are up 37%. You took your numbers up for what you expect rents to grow this year. Industrial warehouse rent, so you've historically been known to be lower than other asset types. So my question is, is there just -- is there a limit to how high industrial rents can grow? And if so, what are they? And if not, like what's going to cause a slowdown in this? Because it seems like the growth that was -- that we're experiencing is sort of unprecedented and at a magnitude that is larger than probably previously imaginable.

租金繼續增長，租賃按市值計價達到 47%，淨有效租金上漲 37%。你把你的數字提高了，因為你預計今年的租金會增長。工業倉庫租金，因此您歷來以低於其他資產類型而聞名。所以我的問題是，工業租金的增長是否有限制？如果是這樣，它們是什麼？如果沒有，像什麼會導致這方面的放緩？因為看起來我們正在經歷的增長是前所未有的，而且規模可能比以前想像的要大。

Yes. So let me take a stab at that. Yes, there is a limit to how far industrial rents will grow. There's a limit as to how far the prices of anything can grow. But if you look at the factors that are contributing to this tremendous growth in industrial rents. There are many, including supply and demand, to start with, which you're dealing with a market that's 3.5% vacant. And as you heard in the prepared remarks, we are running at a fraction of the normal month of supply that's out there.

是的。所以讓我試一試。是的，工業租金的增長幅度是有限度的。任何東西的價格可以上漲多遠都是有限度的。但如果你看看導致工業租金大幅增長的因素。有很多，包括供需，首先，你正在處理一個空置 3.5% 的市場。正如您在準備好的評論中所聽到的那樣，我們的供應量只是正常月份供應量的一小部分。

So notwithstanding all this noise around supply, the relevant supply in the markets that we care about are extremely tight. But there are markets where they've already hit that threshold of rent increase and rent increase is flat. And we don't -- I can't think of any of those in our portfolio, but I'm sure there are markets like that.

因此，儘管圍繞供應存在所有這些噪音，但我們關心的市場中的相關供應卻非常緊張。但是有些市場已經達到了租金上漲的門檻，而且租金上漲是持平的。而且我們沒有——我想不出我們的投資組合中的任何一個，但我確信有這樣的市場。

So the other factor that's contributing to this rental growth is the escalating construction costs and land costs, land costs even more than construction costs. And that has to do with anti-growth sentiments and limitations on allocation of zone land to industrial, et cetera, et cetera.

因此，導致租金增長的另一個因素是不斷上漲的建築成本和土地成本，土地成本甚至超過了建築成本。這與反增長情緒和對工業區土地分配的限制有關，等等。

The third factor I would think about as being important is just the contribution of rents to overall supply chain costs. And you've heard us talk about this before as rents account for about -- occupancy cost actually more than rents, accounts for about 3% to 5% of supply chain costs. So frankly, the ability of our customers to pay rent is a lot more determined by labor costs and transportation costs than real estate costs.

我認為重要的第三個因素就是租金對整體供應鏈成本的貢獻。你以前聽我們談論過這個，因為租金佔了大約 - 佔用成本實際上超過了租金，約佔供應鏈成本的 3% 到 5%。坦率地說，我們客戶支付租金的能力更多地取決於勞動力成本和運輸成本，而不是房地產成本。

So yes, there will be a point of saturation. But I think it would be a mistake. And by the way, I use these words cautiously, very cautiously because I know that you can get in trouble by not being cautious here. But I really do think this time is different than the last 20 or 30 years for a variety of reasons that I've described and a few more that if we have some time, I'll get into.

所以是的，會有一個飽和點。但我認為這將是一個錯誤。順便說一句，我謹慎使用這些詞，非常謹慎，因為我知道你在這裡不謹慎可能會遇到麻煩。但我確實認為這次與過去 20 年或 30 年不同，原因有很多，我已經描述過，還有一些原因，如果我們有時間，我會談到。

And by the way, I apologize about this sequencing of the MC for this show. I don't know what's causing it, but we have very limited control over it.

順便說一句，我為這個節目的 MC 排序表示歉意。我不知道是什麼原因造成的，但我們對它的控制非常有限。

Your next question comes from line of Ki Bin Kim from Truist.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Ki Bin Kim 一行。

So a few weeks ago, Freightways, a company, I know you guys know well, put out an interesting article talking about the downturn in the trucking sector, which might be a possible bearish harbinger. I was just wondering if you can provide some any kind of high-level commentary on what you're seeing in terms of like trucking volumes? And what that means -- what that might mean for like a possible consumer slowdown? And how that might impact your business?

所以幾週前，我知道你們很熟悉的一家公司 Freightways 發表了一篇有趣的文章，談到了貨運行業的低迷，這可能是一個看跌的預兆。我只是想知道您是否可以就貨運量等您所看到的情況提供一些高級評論？這意味著什麼——這對於可能的消費者放緩意味著什麼？以及這將如何影響您的業務？

Yes. Let me -- I'll pitch that over to Chris.

是的。讓我——我會把它轉給克里斯。

Yes. Ki Bin. So for starters, we've seen pricing in the trucking space decline as I think you have as well. First and foremost, I'd take a look at capacity in that space. It's really supply driven that's leading to repricing. And a lot of the metrics that track demand in the trucking business have proved resiliency here through March and April. When you look at our own leading indicators for demand to better understand if there is any kind of read through, for example, the Prologis IBI or the proprietary leading indicators of our business, we do not see the slowdown.

是的。基斌。因此，對於初學者來說，我們已經看到貨運空間的價格下降了，我認為你也有。首先，我想看看那個空間的容量。真正導致重新定價的是供應驅動。許多跟踪貨運業務需求的指標在 3 月和 4 月都證明了彈性。當您查看我們自己的需求領先指標以更好地了解是否有任何類型的通讀時，例如 Prologis IBI 或我們業務的專有領先指標，我們沒有看到放緩。

Yes. By the way, the volume and the pricing should be differentiated too, the pricing was just ridiculously high in the last year or 2. And it's just coming back to earth. By historical standards, pricing is still very strong and volumes, as Chris described, haven't been affected adversely. By the way, they will be -- I should say this. I think trucking volumes will decline because if fewer containers are coming out of China. Because Shanghai is shut down, there are going to be fewer containers that are going to be redistributed, and that will affect trucking volumes. But it's not because of lack of demand from the ultimate consumers, it's because of lack of supply by the producers. And I think that's a problem that people will start talking about next quarter in a big, big way.

是的。順便說一句，數量和定價也應該有所區別，過去一兩年的定價高得離譜。而且它剛剛回到現實中。按照歷史標準，定價仍然非常強勁，正如克里斯所描述的那樣，銷量並未受到不利影響。順便說一句，他們將——我應該這樣說。我認為貨運量將會下降，因為如果來自中國的集裝箱減少。由於上海已關閉，重新分配的集裝箱將會減少，這將影響貨運量。但這不是因為最終消費者的需求不足，而是因為生產者的供應不足。我認為這是人們將在下個季度開始大肆談論的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自於 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I was just wondering if you could provide a little more color on the same-store NOI trend. You did 8.7% in the quarter. Obviously, you've raised guidance for the year, but it does imply a fairly sharp slowdown in the balance of the year. I know the comps get tougher if you kind of look at your progression through '21. But could you maybe just comment kind of where you settled out given the mark-to-market comments? And I realize occupancy might be slipping a bit. But just help us kind of frame the NOI increase with the mark-to-market and the kind of sequential slowdown we're likely to see moving forward?

我只是想知道您是否可以在同店 NOI 趨勢上提供更多顏色。你在本季度做了 8.7%。顯然，你已經提高了今年的指導，但這確實意味著今年餘額的大幅放緩。我知道如果你看看你在 21 年的進步，那麼比賽會變得更加艱難。但是，考慮到按市值計價的評論，您是否可以僅評論一下您在哪裡定居？我意識到入住率可能會有所下滑。但只是幫助我們確定 NOI 隨著按市值計價的增加以及我們可能會看到的那種連續放緩？

Yes, Steve, this is Tim. Look, you've kind of answered your own question there. It is on the occupancy front. And I wouldn't -- I'd hate to characterize it as a slowdown because what's accelerating is rent change. If I go on a net effective basis, we had 37% in the quarter, and that's going to go up into the 40s over the balance of the year. That's the more enduring part of our overall rent growth. So that's what we're focused on. And yes, we had a large occupancy build over the quarters last year. and we're going to keep it stable this year, so it's principally coming from rent change.

是的，史蒂夫，這是蒂姆。看，你已經在那裡回答了你自己的問題。它在入住率方面。我不會——我不想將其描述為放緩，因為正在加速的是租金變化。如果我按淨有效值計算，我們在本季度有 37%，而在今年餘下的時間裡，這將上升到 40 多歲。這是我們整體租金增長中更持久的部分。所以這就是我們所關注的。是的，我們去年的幾個季度都有大量的入住率。今年我們將保持穩定，所以主要來自租金變化。

Your next question comes from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Caitlin Burrows。

Tim, earlier, you touched on the benefits of your size, including the essentials business. I was wondering if you could give an update on the business, maybe how much it's contributing to FFO today? Where you see that going over the near to medium term? And whether it's just being included inside of the rental revenue and expense line items and if that could change at some point?

蒂姆，早些時候，你談到了規模的好處，包括必需品業務。我想知道您是否可以提供有關該業務的最新信息，也許它對今天的 FFO 貢獻了多少？你認為在中短期內會發生什麼？它是否只是包含在租金收入和費用項目中，是否會在某個時候改變？

Yes, I'll start and pitch a little over to Gary here. With regard to this year, we have $0.09, $0.10 of contribution to FFO from all of those businesses. And with regard to geography, that would be our plan and hope that there are of sizes that they need to be broken out at this point. Most of it is flowing through rental revenues as you as you suggest. But over time, that will expand as the businesses grow.

是的，我將在這裡開始向 Gary 介紹一下。關於今年，我們從所有這些業務中為 FFO 貢獻了 0.09 美元、0.10 美元。關於地理，這將是我們的計劃，並希望此時需要打破它們的大小。正如您所建議的，其中大部分是通過租金收入流動的。但隨著時間的推移，這將隨著業務的增長而擴大。

Yes. And just let me add. So we mentioned last quarter that we had $225 million in procurement savings. That capability has now been embedded in the business. So we're not going to talk about those savings anymore. You're just going to see them flow through operating and development margins.

是的。讓我補充一下。因此，我們在上個季度提到我們節省了 2.25 億美元的採購費用。這種能力現在已經嵌入到業務中。所以我們不再談論這些節省。你只會看到它們流經運營和開發利潤。

When you look at the essentials business that Tim just described, we've talked about that business as a $75 million a year business with the potential to go to $1 billion, our near-term goal for essentials to double next year and then double again by year-end 2025. And I'd just say that, that growth is very much dependent on how successful we are at launching and growing new products and services. So let me give you a couple of examples.

當您查看蒂姆剛剛描述的必需品業務時，我們已經談到該業務是一項每年 7500 萬美元的業務，有可能達到 10 億美元，這是我們的近期目標，即明年必需品翻一番，然後再翻一番到 2025 年底。我只想說，這種增長在很大程度上取決於我們在推出和發展新產品和服務方面的成功程度。所以讓我給你舉幾個例子。

In our energy essentials line, our solar product is scaling and our storage and EV products are still in their infancy. In our operating essentials, our ports that have been racking products are beginning to scale, and our smart building products are in their infancy. So again, all of these offerings are at different points in their life cycle and are growing at different rates of speed. But as Tim said, this year, $0.08 to $0.09 in our share earnings.

在我們的能源必需品系列中，我們的太陽能產品正在擴展，我們的存儲和電動汽車產品仍處於起步階段。在我們的運營要領中，我們一直在架設產品的港口開始規模化，我們的智能建築產品處於起步階段。同樣，所有這些產品都處於其生命週期的不同階段，並且以不同的速度增長。但正如蒂姆所說，今年我們的股票收益為 0.08 至 0.09 美元。

And as we mentioned at our Investor Day back in 2019, we had expected essentials to contribute about 50 basis points of annual growth. This year, it will be about 75 to 100 basis points.

正如我們在 2019 年的投資者日中提到的那樣，我們曾預計必需品將貢獻約 50 個基點的年增長。今年，它將約為 75 至 100 個基點。

Yes. And if I can add something to that, just to put some numbers around what Gary talked about. It's $75 million this year. We think it's going to be double that next year. As you said, double that by 2025. So you can do the math. We're kind of honing in on $300 million, $350 million by 2025. That's what we're driving towards. But let's not forget another important line item, which, of course, we've had for many, many years. But it's a real differentiator. And I just don't want people to think of essentials as the only differentiator, that's our private capital business.

是的。如果我可以對此添加一些內容，只是為 Gary 所說的內容添加一些數字。今年是7500萬美元。我們認為明年會翻一番。正如你所說，到 2025 年翻一番。所以你可以做數學。我們正在努力爭取 3 億美元，到 2025 年達到 3.5 億美元。這就是我們正在努力實現的目標。但是，我們不要忘記另一個重要的項目，當然，我們已經擁有了很多年。但這是一個真正的差異化因素。我只是不希望人們將必需品視為唯一的區別，這是我們的私人資本業務。

And you heard that $500 million to $600 million of these revenues. And about that much remotes, we're kind of circling $1 billion of bottom line contribution by that business that not a lot of people pay attention to. It's not in our market cap. But I would suggest that $1 billion is probably a pretty significant stand-alone P&L for a REIT these days. So there are lots of additional things that we're adding that are very profitable businesses that don't actually use up a lot of capital but leverage off of customer relationships and the stickiness of those relationships through long-term leases.

你聽說這些收入中有 5 億到 6 億美元。關於這麼多的遙控器，我們正在盤旋該業務的 10 億美元底線貢獻，但並沒有很多人關注。它不在我們的市值中。但我認為，如今 10 億美元對於 REIT 來說可能是一個相當重要的獨立損益。因此，我們添加了許多額外的東西，它們是非常有利可圖的業務，實際上並沒有消耗大量資金，而是通過長期租賃利用客戶關係和這些關係的粘性。

Your next question comes from the line of Manny Korchman with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Manny Korchman。

Hamid, you mentioned Europe in a couple of different ways on this call. One was that values keep increasing, the others, there's some, obviously, volatility and uncertainty there. Help us connect those 2 things and maybe give us an update on what you think about the markets you have exposure to in Europe longer term?

哈米德，你在這次電話會議中以幾種不同的方式提到了歐洲。一個是價值不斷增加，其他的，顯然存在一些波動性和不確定性。幫助我們將這兩件事聯繫起來，也許可以讓我們了解您對歐洲長期所涉市場的看法？

Sure. Actually, I think those 2 things, volatility, uncertainty and rents going up are really part of the same equation. When things are running smoothly, people can optimize supply chains and minimize inventories. And that's what they've done for many, many years. Whenever you have a disruption like we had Brexit or we had the pandemic or we had earthquake here and there. And now the war, it's a very unfortunate situation generally, and I feel for our people in Europe, and I feel actually for people around the world with this atrocities going on there. But the reality of it is that the impact on our business is actually positive because of the disruption that it causes, people just need to carry more safety stock.

當然。實際上，我認為波動性、不確定性和租金上漲這兩件事實際上是同一個等式的一部分。當事情順利進行時，人們可以優化供應鏈並最大限度地減少庫存。這就是他們多年來所做的事情。每當您遇到諸如英國退歐或大流行或到處發生地震之類的中斷時。現在戰爭，總體上來說這是一個非常不幸的情況，我為我們在歐洲的人民感到，實際上我為世界各地的人們感到，那裡正在發生這種暴行。但現實情況是，由於它造成的破壞，對我們業務的影響實際上是積極的，人們只需要攜帶更多的安全庫存。

Demand in Europe has been surprisingly strong. I shouldn't say surprisingly, it's been really strong. And interestingly, Europeans have been more timid in terms of pushing rents than we are here in America. But finally, they're realizing that they have more pricing power than they thought and taking the rents to a higher level. So I feel pretty good about actually the rental picture. I don't feel good about what's going on in Europe, in the Ukraine, but I feel good about our business there.

歐洲的需求出人意料地強勁。我不應該說令人驚訝，它真的很強大。有趣的是，歐洲人在推高租金方面比我們在美國更膽小。但最終，他們意識到他們擁有比他們想像的更大的定價權，並將租金提升到更高的水平。所以我對實際出租的照片感覺很好。我對歐洲和烏克蘭發生的事情感覺不好，但我對我們在那裡的業務感覺良好。

In terms of the immediate impact of the war, obviously, Poland is a country that we're pretty active in, that's right next door. And a lot of our people are hosting families that have come into Poland, almost 3 million people. And I mean we have employees that are housing dozens of these refugees. And so obviously, it affects how they feel about their life and concerns they have about a lot of families from Ukraine. Actually, a lot of families from Russia, also that work in Europe. And by the way, those people are just distressed, just because they were born in Russia doesn't mean that they like what's going on with the war.

就戰爭的直接影響而言，顯然，波蘭是一個我們非常活躍的國家，就在隔壁。我們的很多人都在接待來到波蘭的家庭，將近 300 萬人。我的意思是，我們有員工為數十名難民提供住所。很明顯，這會影響他們對生活的看法以及他們對來自烏克蘭的許多家庭的擔憂。實際上，很多來自俄羅斯的家庭，也在歐洲工作。順便說一句，那些人只是感到苦惱，僅僅因為他們出生在俄羅斯並不意味著他們喜歡戰爭中發生的事情。

So there's a lot of emotional angst in Europe. It's all understandable, but the business is pretty good. And I don't see it getting derailed unless this war goes to a whole another scale of things that I don't even want to imagine and then everything is toasted. And our business is the last thing we should worry about.

所以歐洲有很多情緒上的焦慮。這一切都可以理解，但生意還不錯。而且我認為它不會脫軌，除非這場戰爭發展到另一個我什至不想想像的規模，然後一切都結束了。我們的業務是我們最不應該擔心的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Blaine Heck。

Can you talk about your clear lease program a little bit and remind us what percentage of your tenants are leasing with the clear lease structure, which expense items are kind of fixed in that structure? And whether you've seen any deterioration to margins given the inflationary environment and increasing costs?

您能否稍微談談您的明確租賃計劃，並提醒我們您的租戶中有多少百分比是通過明確的租賃結構進行租賃的，哪些費用項目在該結構中是固定的？考慮到通脹環境和成本上升，您是否看到利潤率下降？

Yes. So this is Gene. So about 70% of new leases are clear lease. Currently, in the system, I think it's probably around 30%.

是的。這就是吉恩。因此，大約 70% 的新租約是明確租約。目前，在系統中，我認為它可能在 30% 左右。

About 35%.

約 35%。

35% installed. And in terms of where we are on the spectrum of being a little bit ahead or a little bit behind on expense reimbursements, we've been ahead of the game really since the beginning. And recently, now we're a little bit behind. But this is going to happen. Over time, we think will be right on the pin. So I think to date, we're right on the pins, by the way. And this is a value add for our customers. And we're not doing this to make money, doing this to be on the pins and provide an option that others don't.

已安裝 35%。就我們在費用報銷方面領先或落後的範圍而言，我們從一開始就一直處於領先地位。最近，現在我們有點落後了。但這將會發生。隨著時間的推移，我們認為會是正確的。所以我認為到目前為止，順便說一句，我們是正確的。這對我們的客戶來說是一個增值。而且我們這樣做不是為了賺錢，這樣做是為了獲得成功並提供其他人沒有的選擇。

Yes. The other thing that is important to note is that we're getting escalations on the clear lease rent, which is a gross rent. And those escalations are moving up from 3% to 4% in some markets to 5%, and that will, during the duration of the lease, will cover any short-term issues. But you're talking about literally $1 million or $2 million of spread one way or another across a $400 million sort of expense category. So it's a very small deviation. And we recalibrate it every time we sign a lease. It's not like it's an endemic kind of an issue.

是的。另一件需要注意的重要事情是，我們正在對明確的租賃租金進行升級，這是總租金。在某些市場，這些升級從 3% 到 4% 上升到 5%，這將在租約期間涵蓋任何短期問題。但是您實際上是在談論 100 萬美元或 200 萬美元在 4 億美元的費用類別中以一種或另一種方式分攤。所以這是一個非常小的偏差。每次簽訂租約時，我們都會重新校準它。這不像是一個地方性的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自 Scotiabank 的 Nick Yulico。

Just a question on the development pipeline. I know you gave the yields on stabilization versus the starts. And if we're to factor in the 20% rent growth that you're talking about expecting globally this year, does that mean that your starts -- your yields on your starts are really going to be over 6% versus the 5%, 6% that you gave for the starts in the quarter? Just not sure how we should also factor in rising construction costs, maybe offsetting the yield a bit.

只是關於開發管道的問題。我知道你給出了穩定與開始的收益率。如果我們要考慮到今年全球預期的 20% 租金增長，這是否意味著您的開工率——您的開工率真的會超過 6%，而不是 5%，你在本季度開始時給了 6%？只是不確定我們應該如何考慮建築成本的上升，也許會稍微抵消收益。

They do. That's exactly the way you should think about it. And it's not just construction cost. But land costs don't immediately affect the margin because obviously, land is at historical value. But on the new land, land is even increasing more than construction. So that is -- our margins, we always perform around 15-ish percent. And we've been, for the last as far as I remember, come in at 20% to 40%. So clearly, rental growth has outpaced construction and land cost growth. But I think that outperformance will narrow in the near term and may widen again, but I think it will narrow. So I think we're going to hold margins. We're not going to certainly increase them.

他們是這樣。這正是你應該考慮的方式。這不僅僅是建築成本。但土地成本不會立即影響利潤率，因為顯然土地具有歷史價值。但在新的土地上，土地的增長甚至超過了建設。這就是——我們的利潤率，我們總是表現在 15% 左右。據我所知，我們最後一次以 20% 到 40% 的比例進入。很明顯，租金增長已經超過了建築和土地成本的增長。但我認為短期內跑贏大盤將收窄，並可能再次擴大，但我認為它會收窄。所以我認為我們將保持利潤率。我們肯定不會增加它們。

Your next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamden with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ronald Kamden。

Just a quick follow-up on the same-store NOI guidance. Just any incremental color on the 113 basis points, can you break that down between occupancy rents and anything else?

只是對同店 NOI 指導的快速跟進。只是 113 個基點上的任何增量顏色，你能把它分解為佔用租金和其他任何東西嗎？

Yes, you can roll forward our occupancy guidance and see there's a small -- just using the midpoint, small component out of occupancy and it's principally going to be rent change really the step up in market rents we saw in the first quarter, flowing through to the balance of the year together with the rest of our forecasted increase. And that's driving the majority of it.

是的，您可以向前推進我們的入住率指導，看看有一個小部分——僅使用中點，佔入住率的小部分，主要是租金變化，我們在第一季度看到的市場租金上漲，流經與我們預測的其餘部分一起增加。這就是其中的大部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Mueller。

Tim, can you talk about how much your spot global debt costs have changed versus where they were at year-end?

蒂姆，你能談談你的即期全球債務成本與年底相比發生了多大的變化嗎？

Yes. Thanks for that question. We're certainly proud of where the debt stack sits. As a reminder, we're 1.7% today. I would say, on dollars, we put that out at 3.25% to 4% would be the dollar rate. In euros, we'd be in the low 2s. And yen, we'd be in the low 1s. And I think if you're putting that all together, and this information is in the back of the sup, but 60%, 70% of our debt is going to be in euros. That's how you ought to think about reassembling the stack with a large chunk in yen. And then it's actually the dollar component, that's the smallest. So that's what lies ahead. We have very few maturities coming up through '26 as we've mentioned. So we feel really well insulated in this rising rate environment.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我們當然為債務堆棧所在的位置感到自豪。提醒一下，我們今天是 1.7%。我想說，以美元計，我們將美元匯率定為 3.25% 至 4%。以歐元計算，我們將處於低位 2 秒。日元，我們將處於低位。我認為，如果你把所有這些放在一起，這些信息就在最後，但我們 60%、70% 的債務將以歐元計價。這就是你應該如何考慮用一大塊日元重新組裝堆棧。然後它實際上是美元成分，這是最小的。所以這就是未來。正如我們所提到的，我們在 26 年之前到期的債券很少。因此，在這種利率上升的環境中，我們感到非常絕緣。

Your next question comes from the line of Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Derek Johnston。

Just a quick one on the dual demand drivers. Clearly, e-commerce is intact. But has the supply chain bottlenecks impacted the increased inventory build mandate that you were seeing from customers? I guess, is leasing demand for space to house elevated inventory levels still intact? Mean companies struggle to procure part to materials for finished goods. Do you see a possible pause here until bottlenecks ease?

只是關於雙重需求驅動因素的快速介紹。顯然，電子商務是完好無損的。但是，供應鏈瓶頸是否影響了您從客戶那裡看到的增加的庫存構建任務？我想，用於容納高庫存水平的空間租賃需求仍然完好無損嗎？意味著公司難以為製成品採購部分材料。您是否看到這裡可能會暫停，直到瓶頸緩解？

I don't think so because what's going on is that people are running to catch up just with the demand that they're seeing from their end customers, and they're not getting there. They're always behind. So the first stage is for them to catch up with what they need to have to get even with pre-pandemic kind of levels of service. And then they need to think about their long-term strategies. And for sure, as we've talked about many times, resilience is going to factor into those calculations a lot more than it did before.

我不這麼認為，因為人們正在努力趕上他們從最終客戶那裡看到的需求，但他們並沒有達到目標。他們總是落後。因此，第一階段是讓他們趕上他們所需要的，以達到大流行前的服務水平。然後他們需要考慮他們的長期戰略。當然，正如我們多次談到的那樣，彈性將比以前更多地考慮到這些計算中。

So that's why we think about this as a 10% catch-up and a 10% resilience cushion for a total of 20%. But we're also -- and Tim alluded to this in his prepared remarks. We think there may be about as much of a 5% temporary decline too, netting out the 10 plus 10 minus 5 to 15. And the negative -- you may ask why do you think that there may be a negative 5%. Because at some point, things will really open up and people will get tired of sitting at home and ordering online so that I expect the percentage of online sales to temporarily step back a bit before it gets back on a growth curve of ever increasing penetration levels. And I also believe that the expenditures are going to shift more to experiences than goods like they have been in the last 2, 3 years.

所以這就是為什麼我們認為這是一個 10% 的追趕和一個 10% 的彈性緩衝，總共 20%。但我們也是——蒂姆在他準備好的講話中提到了這一點。我們認為也可能會有大約 5% 的暫時下降，將 10 加 10 減去 5 減去 15。還有負面的——你可能會問為什麼你認為可能會有 5% 的負值。因為在某些時候，事情會真正開放，人們會厭倦坐在家裡在線訂購，所以我預計在線銷售的百分比會暫時回落一點，然後才能回到滲透率不斷提高的增長曲線上.而且我還相信，支出將更多地轉向體驗，而不是像過去 2、3 年那樣的商品。

So between those 2 factors, we -- I don't know if it's going to be 5%, but in our thinking, we're kind of putting in a factor of 5% for that just to be safe. But still, a 15% swing in inventories up is like 800 million square feet of additional industrial demand on top of the normal demand that we see just based on population and economic growth. So I think there's a lot of cushion there for demand long term.

所以在這兩個因素之間，我們——我不知道它是否會是 5%，但在我們的想法中，為了安全起見，我們會加入 5% 的因素。但是，庫存增加 15% 相當於在我們僅基於人口和經濟增長看到的正常需求之上增加了 8 億平方英尺的工業需求。所以我認為長期需求有很多緩衝。

Your next question comes from the line of David Rodgers with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 David Rodgers 和 Baird。

Tim, wanted to follow up on your mark-to-market comments. Obviously, 1 of the more important numbers I think you gave on the call this time around and your guidance about over 50% by the end of the year, possibly. Can you give a little more color on kind of the buildup of that? I realize there's a lot of numbers in there. But thinking geographically or length of lease durations since you're rolling about 25% of your leases in practice by the end of each year, how do we kind of build up to this number that then continues to grow and exceed your spreads?

蒂姆，想跟進你的盯市評論。顯然，我認為你這次在電話會議上給出的更重要的數字之一，以及到今年年底你的指導可能超過 50%。你能多說一點關於這種堆積的顏色嗎？我意識到那裡有很多數字。但是考慮到地理或租賃期限的長短，因為到每年年底您在實踐中滾動約 25% 的租約，我們如何建立到這個數字，然後繼續增長並超過您的利差？

Sure. The number -- and again, this is in the sup you can look at how our expirations roll. We're rolling more like 14% to 16% of our leases every year. So you can take that through the level of rent change that we've had, and I've explained it's going to grow from here. That's going to get you into actually, if you compute that, you're going to find same-store growth rates that are 7s, 8s and 9s actually going forward. And this year, we have, on a net effective basis, same-store growth projected around 6%, 7%. As long as we have a market rent growth forecast, that's higher than that, which it's dramatically higher than that this year, that's going to drive the expansion. And we could see -- I mean, we're not forecasting market rent growth in '23. We'll see where that plays out, but it's going to take a long time to lean that number down.

當然。數字 - 再一次，這是在 sup 中，您可以查看我們的到期時間如何滾動。我們每年滾動更多的租約的 14% 到 16%。因此，您可以通過我們所經歷的租金變化水平來應對這一點，我已經解釋過它將從這裡開始增長。這實際上會讓你進入，如果你計算一下，你會發現同店增長率實際上是 7s、8s 和 9s。今年，在淨有效基礎上，我們預計同店增長約為 6%、7%。只要我們有一個市場租金增長預測，那將高於今年，這將大大高於今年，這將推動擴張。我們可以看到——我的意思是，我們沒有預測 23 年的市場租金增長。我們會看到結果如何，但要降低這個數字需要很長時間。

Yes. And just to tie that to earnings because that's what we care about same-store. Look, we've been pretty open about what we think in terms of a longer-term earnings growth picture. And all of this is with our promotes, which are volatile. But in the last time we all got together in person, and we provided the forecast for you as we kind of sat in high single-digits, double digits -- high single digits, actually. And we ended up being about 150 basis points above that annually for 3 years. I think if we redid those numbers, we would be in the low to maybe mid teens, not 15%, but maybe 12%, 13% kind of 3-year earnings growth picture given these mark-to-markets that are extreme.

是的。只是將其與收益聯繫起來，因為這就是我們關心的同店。看，我們對長期盈利增長前景的看法非常開放。所有這一切都與我們的促銷活動有關，這些促銷活動是不穩定的。但在上次我們都親自聚在一起，我們為你提供了預測，因為我們坐在高個位數，兩位數 - 實際上是高個位數。我們最終在 3 年內每年比這個數字高出大約 150 個基點。我認為，如果我們重新計算這些數字，考慮到這些極端的按市價計算，我們的 3 年收益增長圖可能會處於低至十幾歲，而不是 15%，但可能是 12% 或 13%。

So I feel really good about the cushion. And I feel more better about the longevity of it, even than the absolute level of it. Because with 45%, 50% mark-to-market, I mean, that will carry you for a long, long time. So I think we have very resilient earnings and most of it is -- most of that gas is in the tank. Whatever gas we put in the tank because of further rent -- market rent growth from here, that's just gravy.

所以我對坐墊感覺很好。我對它的壽命感覺更好，甚至比它的絕對水平還要好。因為我的意思是，45%、50% 的按市值計價，這會讓你在很長很長一段時間內都受益。所以我認為我們的收益非常有彈性，而且大部分是——大部分天然氣都在油箱裡。由於進一步的租金，我們在油箱裡放了什麼汽油——從這裡開始的市場租金增長，那隻是肉汁。

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Craig Mailman。

This is Ardie on for Craig. Just a quick follow-up on Jamie's question earlier, but how do you guys anticipate cap rates to change across the quality, geography and maybe portfolio size spectrum in the current environment? And maybe how big do you guys see that magnitude or that spread getting?

這是克雷格的阿迪。只是對 Jamie 之前問題的快速跟進，但是你們如何預期上限利率在當前環境下會在質量、地理和投資組合規模範圍內發生變化？也許你們認為這個幅度或傳播範圍有多大？

Well, I think the markets that have had the biggest mark-to-markets will have the strongest cap rates. Because basically, you're buying a below-market income stream. So just look around for the markets that have experienced the biggest rent growth in the last 3 or 4 years, and those are the cap rates that are going to remain the strongest, absent any capital market considerations. And then you got to look at your expected growth in the future. And the markets that have grown strongly in the past are pretty much the markets that are going to grow strongly in the future. So I think it's pretty easy to narrow down on those markets.

好吧，我認為市值最大的市場將擁有最強的上限利率。因為基本上，您購買的是低於市場的收入流。因此，只需四處尋找在過去 3 或 4 年租金增長幅度最大的市場，在沒有任何資本市場考慮的情況下，這些都是將保持最強的上限利率。然後你必須看看你未來的預期增長。過去強勁增長的市場幾乎就是未來將強勁增長的市場。所以我認為縮小這些市場的範圍很容易。

There are some markets, as I suggested earlier, that really the only thing that got going for them is the higher replacement cost. There's not a scarcity of land. And even if demand at elevated levels is not going to normally result in significant rent increases. I'm talking about markets where we either have no or very little exposure to, the less constrained markets. the Columbuses of the world, for example. So you got to go market by market, but I think in the places that have had the strongest growth, we'll have the strongest cap rates and growth going forward.

正如我之前建議的那樣，有一些市場，真正對他們來說唯一可行的就是更高的重置成本。土地並不稀缺。即使高水平的需求通常不會導致租金大幅上漲。我說的是我們沒有或很少接觸的市場，即限制較少的市場。例如，世界上的哥倫布。所以你必須一個接一個地去市場，但我認為在增長最強勁的地方，我們將擁有最強勁的上限利率和未來的增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Rosivach with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Andrew Rosivach。

I wanted to follow up on the Clear Leases. And by the way, thanks for that great video that you have on your website. It makes a lot of sense with your business model that given the scale you have that you could pass on savings to the tenants. You still pass through utilities, you still pass through real estate taxes. What percentage is kind of tied to a gross lease?

我想跟進明確的租約。順便說一句，感謝您在您的網站上提供的精彩視頻。考慮到您可以將儲蓄轉嫁給租戶的規模，您的商業模式很有意義。你仍然通過公用事業，你仍然通過房地產稅。多少百分比與總租賃相關？

It's Tim, which is less than 1/3 of the overall expenses. But it's not the level of expenses that drives the popularity of Clear Lease is the fact that you spend all your time reconciling a very small number, and that's the biggest source of friction with the customers. So really enough to simplify their life. It's not -- look, neither they or us are that smart to figure out exactly what expenses are going to be. We're probably a little smarter because we got 1 billion square feet to experiment around. But at the end of the day, it's just like Gene said, it's about simplifying their lives and taking away that point of friction away from the dialogue so that we can turn to more important things like selling and forklifts.

是蒂姆，不到總費用的1/3。但推動 Clear Lease 受歡迎的並不是費用水平，而是您將所有時間都花在核對一個非常小的數字上，這是與客戶摩擦的最大來源。所以真的足以簡化他們的生活。這不是 - 看，他們或我們都沒有那麼聰明地弄清楚確切的費用是多少。我們可能更聰明一點，因為我們有 10 億平方英尺的空間可以進行試驗。但歸根結底，就像 Gene 所說的那樣，這是為了簡化他們的生活，消除對話中的摩擦點，這樣我們就可以轉向更重要的事情，比如銷售和叉車。

So just to hit on some of the other things. Today, most of the customers, they just pay a utility bill. But in the future, we may actually be selling them energy. And that may become part of the Clear Lease. And real estate taxes are just too volatile for us to take on that risk. But in some point in the future, maybe there's a way to ensure around that risk. And if there is a viable way to do it, we will do that. So 10 years from now, who knows what the Clear Lease looks like. But it all comes back to the same thing. Ease of doing business so we can spend our time with these guys talking about important things like essentials versus reconciling expenses.

所以只是想談談其他一些事情。今天，大多數客戶，他們只需支付水電費。但在未來，我們實際上可能會向他們出售能源。這可能成為明確租約的一部分。房地產稅波動太大，我們無法承擔這種風險。但在未來的某個時候，也許有一種方法可以確保規避這種風險。如果有可行的方法來做到這一點，我們就會這樣做。所以 10 年後，誰知道 Clear Lease 的樣子。但這一切又回到了同一件事上。輕鬆開展業務，因此我們可以花時間與這些人討論重要事項，例如必需品與核對費用。

Your next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John Kim。

Europe including the U.K. represents 11% of our NOI, but now 58% of (inaudible) currency, and that spread has widened. So whether it's Mileway way or another acquisition, how important is it to increase your NOI in Europe to further borrow in local currency without taking on too much FX risk?

包括英國在內的歐洲占我們 NOI 的 11%，但現在佔（聽不清）貨幣的 58%，而且這種價差已經擴大。因此，無論是 Mileway 方式還是其他收購方式，在不承擔過多外匯風險的情況下，增加您在歐洲的 NOI 以進一步借入當地貨幣有多重要？

Yes. So I would completely think about that in exactly the opposite way. We first start with how big we need to be in each market to serve our customers and what the opportunity set is in each market. By doing that, we end up in some markets outside the United States, i.e., U.K. And we are a U.S. dollar dividend payer. So we don't want to be obligated to pay a significant stream of dollar dividends and have our revenues and bottom line be in a currency that may not be perfectly correlated with the dollar. So we need to hedge somehow, we cannot hedge economically for very long term based on just buying hedges.

是的。所以我會以完全相反的方式考慮這一點。我們首先從每個市場需要多大的規模來為我們的客戶提供服務以及每個市場的機會集合開始。通過這樣做，我們最終進入了美國以外的一些市場，即英國。我們是美元股息支付者。因此，我們不希望有義務支付大量美元股息，並且我們的收入和底線可能與美元不完全相關。所以我們需要以某種方式對沖，我們不能僅僅基於購買對沖而在經濟上進行非常長期的對沖。

So we want to set up natural hedges. And there are 2 ways we set up natural hedges. One is that we look -- borrow in local currency. So the assets and the liabilities move up and down as the currency fluctuates. And the other thing is that we deploy more private capital in those jurisdictions to really bring down the Prologis share in those foreign locations with different currencies. So we don't drive our real estate strategy to lower our financing costs. We have a real estate strategy and then with design a funding strategy around it that will insulate us from unusual risk.

所以我們要建立自然樹籬。我們有兩種設置自然樹籬的方法。一個是我們看 - 以當地貨幣借入。因此，資產和負債隨著貨幣波動而上下波動。另一件事是，我們在這些司法管轄區部署了更多的私人資本，以真正降低 Prologis 在那些使用不同貨幣的外國地區的份額。因此，我們不會推動我們的房地產戰略來降低我們的融資成本。我們有一個房地產戰略，然後圍繞它設計一個融資戰略，使我們免受異常風險的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

您的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Vince Tibone。

What exactly changed over the past 3 months to cause your U.S. market rent growth forecast to increase to 22%, up from 11% last quarter. And could you also bifurcate the current rent growth forecast between coastal and noncoastal markets?

過去 3 個月究竟發生了什麼變化，導致您的美國市場租金增長預測從上一季度的 11% 增加到 22%。您能否將當前的租金增長預測分為沿海和非沿海市場？

The latter, Chris will do shortly, but Look, we're in -- as somebody asked earlier, we are in unprecedented territory, I mean industrial rents historically. While some people actually used to say industrial rents are never going to go up. But industrial rents do go up and -- but they've never grown at these levels, but we've never had market conditions like we have now. We've never had e-commerce at this level of importance. We've never had resilience becoming such a big factor. We haven't had these bottlenecks in the supply chain that clog up the network. So all of these -- and we haven't had inflation and shortage of materials and labor and all that in terms of bringing on additional supply. So all of these factors, none of them are new but the extent of them, if you're off on each one of them by a little bit, they accumulate to being off 10% in the quarter. And we do our best, but we're not always right. And in this case, we were low.

後者，克里斯很快就會做，但是看，我們在——正如之前有人問的那樣，我們處於前所未有的領域，我的意思是歷史上的工業租金。雖然有些人實際上曾經說過工業租金永遠不會上漲。但是工業租金確實上漲了——但它們從未達到這樣的水平，但我們從未有過像現在這樣的市場條件。我們從未有過如此重要的電子商務。我們從未有過彈性成為如此重要的因素。我們沒有在供應鏈中遇到這些阻塞網絡的瓶頸。所以所有這些——我們還沒有通貨膨脹、材料和勞動力短缺以及所有這些帶來額外供應的情況。所以所有這些因素，它們都不是新的，但它們的程度，如果你對它們中的每一個都有一點點偏離，它們在本季度累計下降 10%。我們盡力而為，但我們並不總是正確的。在這種情況下，我們很低。

It's Chris. I'll jump in with a couple of details. First, as to what's changed in the last days, I point you to a couple of things. The first is rent growth accelerated and outperformed expectations on an actual basis in the first quarter. The second is we've revised up our replacement cost growth. We haven't talked about it on the call, but there's been meaningful move in replacement costs, we could see them up 15%, 20% this year in the United States and more, for example, in Europe. Property fundamentals are stronger than expected. Tim talked about a reduction in the supply forecast. And then Hamid's earlier remarks on the ongoing dislocations and supply chains, I think, will keep urgency flowing through decision-making.

是克里斯。我將介紹一些細節。首先，關於最近幾天發生了什麼變化，我向您指出幾件事。一是租金增速加快，一季度實際好於預期。第二個是我們上調了重置成本增長。我們沒有在電話會議上談論它，但重置成本發生了有意義的變化，我們可以看到它們今年在美國上漲 15%，在歐洲上漲 20% 甚至更多，例如在歐洲。房地產基本面強於預期。蒂姆談到了供應預測的減少。然後，我認為，哈米德早些時候關於持續的混亂和供應鏈的評論將繼續通過決策制定緊迫性。

As it relates to regional differences, the U.S. for sure is outperforming and it has been led by the global markets on the coast, and it's practically all of them. So you can look at New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Baltimore, even down to South Florida, which we haven't talked about on the call in a while. And then in California, it's not just Southern California, Northern California is also contributing. The split between the cost and the non-cost is roughly going to be 25%, 26% on the coast for this year versus, say, something more like 15% in the interior markets. And the last point I'd offer is it's not just a U.S. phenomenon. There's clear growth globally. It's both nominal and inflation adjusted. Europe generally, but especially in U.K. and Northern Europe. There are several Mexican markets that are enjoying meaningful repricing and it also offer Toronto in Canada.

由於與地區差異有關，美國肯定表現出色，它一直由沿海的全球市場引領，而且幾乎是所有這些市場。所以你可以看看新澤西、賓夕法尼亞、巴爾的摩，甚至南佛羅里達，我們已經有一段時間沒有在電話會議上討論過了。然後在加利福尼亞，不僅是南加州，北加州也在做出貢獻。成本和非成本之間的差距大約為 25%，今年沿海地區為 26%，而內陸市場則接近 15%。我要提出的最後一點是，這不僅僅是美國的現象。全球有明顯的增長。它既是名義上的，也是經過通貨膨脹調整的。歐洲一般，但特別是在英國和北歐。有幾個墨西哥市場正在享受有意義的重新定價，它也提供加拿大的多倫多。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼鮑威爾。

I think you mentioned that you kept your development start guidance the same despite the strong demand environment. How much of that was due to, I guess, more opposition for communities in certain areas? And how do you navigate that issue going forward as you seek to develop further?

我認為您提到儘管需求環境強勁，但您仍保持開發開始指導不變。我猜，其中有多少是由於某些地區的社區遭到更多反對？當您尋求進一步發展時，您如何解決這個問題？

Yes. Well, that is a headwind for sure in the future, but it did not factor into maintaining the guidance. Basically, maintaining the guidance. And of course, at this time of the year, we're typically going to narrow the range and increase the midpoint. And as Tim mentioned, that's really conservatism based on issues we see in the supply chain. They're driven by the labor. They are more prevalent in Europe, as you can imagine right now than the U.S. I feel great about the pipeline. And if I were betting right now, I think we will increase that guidance as we go throughout the year. But at this point in time, with what's going on in the world, we just think it's prudent. But it is not related specifically to entitlements now, but that is, for sure, a headwind in the future.

是的。好吧，這在未來肯定是一個逆風，但它並沒有影響維持指導。基本上，保持指導。當然，在每年的這個時候，我們通常會縮小範圍並增加中點。正如蒂姆所提到的，這確實是基於我們在供應鏈中看到的問題的保守主義。他們是由勞動力驅動的。正如您現在可以想像的那樣，它們在歐洲比在美國更為普遍。我對管道感覺很好。如果我現在下注，我認為我們將在全年增加這一指導。但是在這個時間點，隨著世界上正在發生的事情，我們只是認為這是謹慎的。但這與現在的權利沒有特別的關係，但這肯定是未來的逆風。

Your next question comes from the line of Manny Korchman with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Manny Korchman。

It's Michael Bilerman here with Manny. Hamid, you've done -- the rest of the management team as well, sort of outlining all the drivers of industrial demand, and you've made it clear sort of the attribute that makes Prologis different and unique. What is your investment management program, the development, the e-commerce and the essentials business that you're building focused on ESG, the 1 billion square feet under management. And so you can control you can control, which is all the elements of growing a business but you can't control the macro environment, and I recognize there's a word in Eastern Europe.

是邁克爾·比勒曼和曼尼。哈米德，你已經完成了 - 管理團隊的其他成員也已經完成了，概述了工業需求的所有驅動因素，並且你已經清楚地說明了使 Prologis 與眾不同和獨特的屬性。您的投資管理計劃是什麼，您正在建立的開發、電子商務和基本業務專注於 ESG，管理的 10 億平方英尺。所以你可以控制你可以控制，這是發展企業的所有要素，但你無法控制宏觀環境，我知道東歐有一個詞。

So let's not -- if we put that aside for one second, there's a lot of building concerns around recession fears and whether it's the yield curve inverting. We've talked a lot about inflation. You've talked a little bit about the movement of services from goods. I guess how do you sort of think about a recession, which obviously you can't control, but what are you seeing? And is it different from what the macro talking heads are interpreting about some of that data? And is there anything that you're doing in addition to protect the firm from that?

所以我們不要——如果我們把它擱置一秒鐘，就會有很多關於衰退擔憂的擔憂，以及收益率曲線是否倒掛。我們談了很多關於通貨膨脹的事情。您已經談到了從商品中轉移服務的一些內容。我猜你是如何看待經濟衰退的，這顯然是你無法控制的，但你看到了什麼？它與宏觀談話負責人對某些數據的解釋有什麼不同嗎？除了保護公司免受這些影響之外，您還做了什麼？

That's -- those are really good questions, actually. So we think a lot about recession. We've thought about plenty of the last 3 recessions often, and we're conservative by nature, and we're always -- when things are going well, we get worried and sort of keep thinking about what we may be missing. So we're not Pollyannish recession or anything like that. But look, we're not smart enough. We just look at what our customers tell us and what they do and the actions and the works that they use. And I would say the posture of our customers is very much front foot forward because they're benefiting from certain secular trends that are in their favor.

那是——實際上，這些都是很好的問題。因此，我們對衰退進行了很多思考。我們經常考慮過去 3 次衰退中的很多次，而且我們本質上是保守的，而且我們總是——當事情進展順利時，我們會感到擔心，並一直在思考我們可能會錯過什麼。所以我們不是波利揚式的衰退或類似的事情。但是看，我們還不夠聰明。我們只看客戶告訴我們的內容、他們所做的事情以及他們使用的行為和作品。我想說的是，我們客戶的姿態非常前衛，因為他們受益於某些對他們有利的長期趨勢。

Could those reverse? Does it take a long time for the CEO thinking that he's going to tighten his belt or her belt and the guy who's buying real estate in the field, acting on that, there may be a lag? But boy, our customers are very active, particularly on the e-com side. I mean the demand from e-com tenants has really, really broadened. I mean there was a time that, for example, Amazon accounted for a pretty significant part of this demand. And a lot of questions we would get is how broad is it. Well, it's a lot broader than it used to be, very, very broad.

那些可以逆轉嗎？首席執行官認為他會勒緊腰帶或她的腰帶需要很長時間，而在該領域購買房地產的人，採取行動可能會有滯後？但是男孩，我們的客戶非常活躍，尤其是在電子商務方面。我的意思是電子商務租戶的需求已經非常非常廣泛了。我的意思是曾經有一段時間，例如，亞馬遜在這種需求中佔了相當大的一部分。我們會得到的很多問題是它有多廣泛。嗯，它比以前廣泛得多，非常非常廣泛。

So we see our customers with their front foot forward and taking up more space. And that gives us comfort that we're not facing a recessionary environment, at least not as it pertains to our business. Now again, fuel costs are up that's taken a big bite out of the consumers' pocket. There's a word going on. We're going to have midterm elections now -- soon. I mean they are all kinds of imponderables. But so far, it hasn't translated into conservative behavior by our customers.

所以我們看到我們的客戶前腳向前，佔據了更多的空間。這讓我們感到欣慰的是，我們沒有面臨經濟衰退的環境，至少與我們的業務無關。現在又一次，燃料成本上漲，這讓消費者的口袋裡掏出了一大口。有話要說。我們現在即將舉行中期選舉。我的意思是，它們是各種不可估量的東西。但到目前為止，它還沒有轉化為我們客戶的保守行為。

And on the supply side, these constraints -- I know people don't really believe this because they all throw out the 400 million square foot supply number and all that. But I don't know where that is. In the markets that we really care about, it's -- that's a day-to-day battle that we fight. And it's very, very difficult. And the only thing that gives me comfort is at least we have our 1 billion square feet, and we do care about growth. But look, if they shut down the whole thing, our 1 billion square feet is going to be worth a lot more.

在供應方面，這些限制 - 我知道人們並不真正相信這一點，因為他們都扔掉了 4 億平方英尺的供應數量等等。但我不知道那在哪裡。在我們真正關心的市場中，這是我們每天都在進行的戰鬥。這是非常非常困難的。唯一讓我感到安慰的是，我們至少有 10 億平方英尺，而且我們確實關心增長。但是你看，如果他們把整個事情都關了，我們的 10 億平方英尺會更值錢。

So again, not Pollyannish. We're definitely focused on it, but we're not seeing the signs. And what we've done about it is pretty simple. We have reduced our leverage to a level that we can be on offense if something that were to happen. And this is very different than both companies were in 2008, 2010 time frame. Not that I'm predicting anything like that, but I'm just saying we've built it to last. And I think downturns could actually be a source of opportunity for us.

再說一次，不是Pollynnish。我們絕對專注於它，但我們沒有看到跡象。我們所做的非常簡單。我們已經將我們的影響力降低到一個水平，如果發生某些事情，我們可以進攻。這與兩家公司在 2008 年、2010 年的時間框架內大不相同。並不是說我在預測這樣的事情，但我只是說我們已經把它建成持久。而且我認為經濟低迷實際上可能是我們的機會來源。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Michael Carroll。

I just wanted to drill down, Hamid, in an earlier statement that you said that the tenant supply chain cost reflects 3% to 5% of their total cost structure. I know that's a number you guys talked about in a while or for a while. And kind of highlighted that they're willing to pay 2x the real estate cost if they can reduce their transportation and labor by 10%. I guess my question is, have you or do you expect to see that 3% to 5% number increase as these tenants continue to invest in their supply chains and rents continue to increase at a fairly quick pace?

我只是想深入研究一下，哈米德，在之前的一份聲明中，你說租戶供應鏈成本反映了他們總成本結構的 3% 到 5%。我知道這是你們在一段時間內談論過的一個數字。並且有點強調，如果他們能減少 10% 的交通和勞動力，他們願意支付 2 倍的房地產成本。我想我的問題是，隨著這些租戶繼續投資於他們的供應鏈並且租金繼續以相當快的速度增長，您是否或您預計會看到 3% 到 5% 的數字增長？

I expect rents to increase at a fairly quick pace, but I don't expect that percentage to go up because I think labor and energy will go up faster than rents. I mean energy is more than double in a very short period of time. How long that lasts? I don't know. If energy prices come back down to -- oil being $60 to $70 a barrel, maybe at that time, the percentage of rent and occupancy costs will step up a little bit.

我預計租金會以相當快的速度增長，但我不認為這個百分比會上升，因為我認為勞動力和能源的增長速度會快於租金。我的意思是能量在很短的時間內增加了一倍以上。持續多久？我不知道。如果能源價格回落到每桶 60 至 70 美元的油價，也許到那時，租金和入住成本的百分比會上升一點。

The other thing on the horizon that's going to increase the percentage of occupancy cost is automation. I think over time, people are going to invest more and more in fixed automation in their buildings. And you can count it any way you want. It can be labor because automation is really a substitute for labor or you can call it occupancy cost because it's bolted on to the floor of the real estate. But that will definitely be a new cost category that will increase over time. So net-net, I don't think that 3% to 5% is going to change all that much.

即將增加佔用成本百分比的另一件事是自動化。我認為隨著時間的推移，人們將越來越多地投資於建築物的固定自動化。你可以隨心所欲地計算它。它可以是勞動力，因為自動化實際上是勞動力的替代品，或者你可以稱之為佔用成本，因為它被固定在房地產的地板上。但這肯定是一個新的成本類別，會隨著時間的推移而增加。所以 net-net，我認為 3% 到 5% 不會有太大變化。

That was the last question in the queue. And before you guys sign off, I really want you to stay for this part. I just want to say a few words about our partner and CFO, Tom Hollinger, and his substantial contributions to the company over the last 15 years. Actually, it's a lot longer 15 years because Tom was part of the team that actually took us public when he was a partner -- a young partner at Arthur Anderson. So he's been with the company for a long time and has added a lot of value. And you know that his last day officially was April 1, and Tim is now our CFO. And that really points to Tom's impact on this company. He has -- he's been a leader on our executive team and the fixture on earnings, probably more interaction with you guys than anybody else in our company.

那是隊列中的最後一個問題。在你們簽字之前，我真的希望你們留在這部分。我只想談談我們的合夥人兼首席財務官 Tom Hollinger，以及他在過去 15 年中對公司的巨大貢獻。實際上，這比 15 年要長得多，因為湯姆是團隊中的一員，當他還是合夥人時，他實際上是讓我們公開的——亞瑟安德森的年輕合夥人。所以他在公司工作了很長時間，增加了很多價值。你知道他正式的最後一天是 4 月 1 日，蒂姆現在是我們的首席財務官。這確實表明了湯姆對這家公司的影響。他已經 - 他一直是我們執行團隊的領導者和收益的固定裝置，可能比我們公司的其他任何人都更多地與你們互動。

In April of 2007, when he joined the Ben AMB, the company was 150 million square feet and a different set of capabilities. And now here we are much larger, more significant company. I think today, we're #66 or 67 in the S&P 500. All of that has been accomplished under Tom's tenure. And I can't speak enough about his integrity about how much she cares about our investors, our analysts and how much he has been a voice of reason and a model for the kind of values that we like to see around here. He's obviously built an industry-leading financial infrastructure and a team that positions us well for continued success. I think the transition to Tim has been textbook example of good succession planning on his part.

2007 年 4 月，當他加入 Ben AMB 時，該公司擁有 1.5 億平方英尺和不同的能力。現在，我們是更大、更重要的公司。我認為今天，我們在標準普爾 500 指數中排名第 66 位或第 67 位。所有這些都是在湯姆的任期內完成的。我無法充分評價他的誠信，她多麼關心我們的投資者、我們的分析師，以及他在多大程度上是理性的代言人，也是我們希望在這裡看到的那種價值觀的典範。顯然，他建立了行業領先的金融基礎設施和團隊，使我們能夠繼續取得成功。我認為向蒂姆的過渡一直是他良好繼任計劃的教科書示例。

And the good news about all of this is that Tom is going to end up doing what he wanted to do, which is to spend his time on his family and his philanthropy, which are important to them. And I'm glad that his hard work here and the success of the company has positioned them to be able to do that. And -- but he's not going away. He has been nice enough to tell me and his other colleagues that he's going to be here whenever we need them. And I believe that and -- but I hope that we won't avail ourselves of that generosity of time -- too many times. So I just want all of you to wish Tom a really great fair well in addition to the team here at Prologis.

關於這一切的好消息是，湯姆最終會做他想做的事，那就是把時間花在對他們來說很重要的家庭和慈善事業上。我很高興他在這裡的辛勤工作和公司的成功使他們能夠做到這一點。而且——但他不會離開。他很友善地告訴我和他的其他同事，只要我們需要他們，他就會在這裡。我相信這一點，而且——但我希望我們不會利用那慷慨的時間——太多次。因此，除了 Prologis 的團隊之外，我只想希望你們所有人都祝 Tom 一個非常棒的公平競賽。

Thanks, Hamid. I'm like a bad penny, I guess, showing up here and there. But I just want to say how proud I am to be part of this company. And as Hamid mentioned, I have prospered and evolved over my time here. And while we've accomplished much, as Tim said, the best years are clearly ahead for the company. And we spent a lot of time talking about the things that make Prologis unique, the differentiators. At the heart of those differentiators is the amazing group of people that work here, and that starts at the top.

謝謝，哈米德。我想，我就像一個壞便士，到處出現。但我只想說，能成為這家公司的一員，我感到多麼自豪。正如哈米德所說，我在這裡的時間裡取得了成功和進步。正如蒂姆所說，雖然我們已經取得了很多成就，但公司最好的幾年顯然已經到來。我們花了很多時間談論使 Prologis 與眾不同的東西，即差異化因素。這些差異化的核心是在這里工作的令人驚嘆的一群人，而且從高層開始。

I want to first thank Hamid for the opportunity to be part of this team. And my 35 years of work experience here, I've never worked for or with a better partner. I want to thanks my EC, Executive Committee and finance teammates for their friendship and support. I'm really proud of Tim, and he's going to be an incredible CFO. I want to thank the investors and analysts and meet set for your time and interest over the years, I am looking forward to seeing you all at NAREIT one more time.

我要首先感謝 Hamid 有機會成為這個團隊的一員。而我在這裡 35 年的工作經驗，我從來沒有為更好的合作夥伴工作過。我要感謝我的 EC、執行委員會和財務團隊成員的友誼和支持。我真的為蒂姆感到驕傲，他將成為一位了不起的首席財務官。我要感謝投資者和分析師，並感謝你們多年來的時間和興趣，我期待著在 NAREIT 再次見到你們。

And the bottom line is I've been blessed to be part of this company. After I leave later this year, the team will continue to play a very important part of my life, in my next phase. And for that, I'm very, very grateful. So thank you all.

最重要的是，我很幸運能成為這家公司的一員。在我今年晚些時候離開後，在我的下一個階段，球隊將繼續扮演我生命中非常重要的一部分。為此，我非常非常感激。所以謝謝大家。

And thank you for all of you for participating in this call, and we look forward to seeing you next quarter, if not sooner. Take care.

感謝大家參與本次電話會議，我們期待在下個季度見到你，如果不是更早的話。小心。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。