Polaris Inc (PII) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Polaris first quarter, 2025 earnings call and webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Polaris 2025 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。所有參與者將處於只聽模式。（操作員指示）

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to JC Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 JC Weigelt。請繼續。

Thank you, Allison, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. I am JC Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations at Polaris. Thank you for joining us for our 2025 first-quarter earnings call. We'll reference a slide presentation today, which is accessible on our website at ir.polaris.com. Joining me on the call today are Mike Speetzen, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Mack, our Chief Financial Officer. Both have prepared remarks summarizing the 2025 first quarter, as well as our expectations for 2025. Then we'll take your questions.

謝謝你，艾莉森，大家早安或下午好。我是 Polaris 投資者關係副總裁 JC Weigelt。感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天我們將參考一份幻燈片演示，您可以在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上查看。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 Mike Speetzen；以及我們的財務長 Bob Mack。兩人都準備了總結2025年第一季的發言以及我們對2025年的期望。然後我們會回答您的問題。

During the call, we'll be discussing various topics which should be considered forward-looking for the purpose of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2024 10-K for additional details regarding risks and uncertainties.

在電話會議中，我們將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中應具有前瞻性的各種主題。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。您可以參考我們的 2024 10-K 來了解有關風險和不確定性的更多詳細資訊。

All references to 2025 first-quarter actual results and future period guidance are for our continuing operations and are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of the presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments. Now, I will turn the call over to Mike Speetzen. Go ahead, Mike.

所有對 2025 年第一季實際業績和未來期間指引的引用均針對我們的持續經營業務，且除非另有說明，均以調整後的非 GAAP 基礎報告。請參閱簡報末尾的 Reg G 對帳表，以了解 GAAP 到非 GAAP 的調整。現在，我將把電話轉給 Mike Speetzen。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks, JC and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. 2025 has continued to be a dynamic period for our industry. These are certainly challenging times, but we're managing the situation thoughtfully.

謝謝，JC，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。 2025年對我們的產業來說仍然是一個充滿活力的時期。這無疑是一個充滿挑戰的時期，但我們正在慎重處理這一情況。

And as I mentioned in our last earnings call, it has become increasingly evident over the last several months that one of Polaris's greatest strengths continues to be our determined and unrelenting team, one that is willing and able to conquer any challenge.

正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的那樣，過去幾個月越來越明顯的是，Polaris 最大的優勢之一仍然是我們堅定不移的團隊，他們願意並且能夠克服任何挑戰。

Today, Bob and I will walk through how the business performed in the first quarter, share more on our strategic approach to mitigating the impact from tariffs, and discuss how we intend to emerge stronger to deliver sales growth, stronger earnings power, and higher returns.

今天，鮑伯和我將介紹第一季的業務表現，分享更多我們減輕關稅影響的策略方針，並討論我們如何變得更加強大，實現銷售成長、更強的獲利能力和更高的回報。

In Q1, we continued to focus on managing what is within our control. As expected, sales were down 12%, driven by our decision to continue reducing shipments to manage dealer inventory amidst a prolonged downturn in power sports and a higher promotional environment.

在第一季度，我們繼續專注於管理我們能控制的事情。正如預期的那樣，銷售額下降了 12%，這是由於在動力運動長期低迷和促銷環境較高的情況下，我們決定繼續減少出貨量以管理經銷商庫存。

Margins were slightly below our expectations due to elevated promotions in the industry. Tariffs did not materially impact the first-quarter results due to timing and the deferral of related costs. We partially offset these headwinds through ongoing operational savings, including lower manufacturing spend and favorable material and logistics costs during the quarter.

由於業界促銷力度加大，利潤率略低於我們的預期。由於時間安排和相關成本的遞延，關稅並未對第一季業績產生重大影響。我們透過持續的營運節省（包括本季較低的製造支出和優惠的材料和物流成本）部分抵消了這些不利因素。

Adjusted EPS of negative $0.90 cents came in at the midpoint of the guidance range we provided in January. North American retail was down 7% with relatively better performance in our utility business versus recreational products. On our prior earnings call, we highlighted the positive indicators around ridership, pin-up demand, and continued interest in the power sports category.

調整後的每股收益為負 0.90 美分，處於我們 1 月份提供的指導範圍的中點。北美零售業下降了 7%，其中公用事業業務的表現相對較好於休閒產品。在我們先前的收益電話會議上，我們強調了乘客量、海報需求以及對動力運動類別的持續興趣方面的積極指標。

This point was reinforced this last quarter in our snowmobile business as late season snow in the flat lands resulted in strong retail growth of approximately 50% in the quarter.

上個季度，我們的雪地摩托車業務再次印證了這一點，因為平地季末的降雪導致該季度零售額強勁增長約 50%。

Additionally, in a razor consumer study we recently conducted that looked at vehicle usage and owner repurchase rates, razor ridership and engagement within the category remains strong. In fact, over 90% of razor riders in our study say they are planning to ride the same or more than last year.

此外，我們最近進行的一項刮鬍刀消費者研究調查了車輛使用率和車主回購率，結果顯示刮鬍刀的使用者人數和參與度仍然強勁。事實上，我們調查中的 90% 以上的刮鬍刀騎士表示，他們計劃騎行與去年相同或更多。

However, more than 40% of those we surveyed acknowledge that they're holding on to their vehicle longer than they typically would given factors like interest rates and economic uncertainty. The share story was mixed this quarter as we gained share in motorcycles and pontoons but lost modest share in ORV.

然而，超過 40% 的受訪者承認，由於利率和經濟不確定性等因素，他們持有車輛的時間比通常更長。本季我們的市佔率表現好壞參半，摩托車和浮橋車的市佔率增加，但 ORV 的市佔率則略有下降。

Remember that we were among the first to execute a dealer inventory reduction strategy, demonstrating our commitment to a strong partnership with our dealers. We continue to see ORV share being impacted by elevated promotions from some of the Japanese OEMs that continue to lag Polaris in reducing dealer inventory.

請記住，我們是首批執行經銷商庫存減少策略的公司之一，這表明我們致力於與經銷商建立牢固的合作夥伴關係。我們繼續看到 ORV 份額受到一些日本 OEM 加強促銷的影響，這些 OEM 在減少經銷商庫存方面繼續落後於 Polaris。

In our view, this is a short-term issue, and we believe that we remain well positioned to gain back share with our innovative product line across ATVs and side by sides, once inventory levels normalized and industry retail stabilizes.

我們認為，這是一個短期問題，我們相信，一旦庫存水準恢復正常且行業零售穩定，我們仍然能夠憑藉全地形車和並排車的創新產品線重新贏得市場份額。

The uncertainty in today's market reminds me of 2018 when we were dealing with the initial wave of tariffs that were placed on China. The environment is fluid and changes daily.

當今市場的不確定性讓我想起了 2018 年，當時我們正在應對針對中國徵收的第一波關稅。環境是流動的，每天都在變化。

My goals then as CFO, and now as CEO, are consistent. Successfully navigate the situation with the best team in power sports by staying close to our dealers, preserving cash, and positioning this great American company to emerge stronger than ever and further cementing Polaris as the leader in power sports.

我當時擔任財務長以及現在擔任執行長的目標是一致的。透過與經銷商保持密切聯繫、保留現金，並讓這家偉大的美國公司變得比以往任何時候都更加強大，並進一步鞏固 Polaris 在動力運動領域的領先地位，與動力運動領域的最佳團隊一起成功應對形勢。

We've decided to withdraw our full-year guidance that we provided in January. This was not an easy decision. However, given the fluidity of the tariff environment, including the frequency of new tariffs, changing tariff rates, and the temporary suspension of certain tariffs coupled with the potential impact of consumer spending, we have determined that withdrawing our full-year guidance is the most prudent course of action.

我們決定撤回一月份提供的全年指導。這不是一個容易的決定。然而，考慮到關稅環境的流動性，包括新關稅的頻率、關稅稅率的變化、某些關稅的暫時中止以及消費者支出的潛在影響，我們認為撤回全年指導是最謹慎的做法。

We're actively monitoring developments and we'll re-evaluate our decision on guidance once we have greater clarity. Our commitment remains to stay focused on navigating these challenges and positioning Polaris for sustained long-term success.

我們正在積極監測事態發展，一旦獲得更清晰的了解，我們將重新評估我們的指導決定。我們的承諾依然是專注於應對這些挑戰，並讓 Polaris 獲得長期的持續成功。

Retail trends in the quarter were similar to what we've seen in recent quarters. Within off-road, our utility retail was down high-single digits, led by double-digit declines in ATVs. Recreation was down high teens driven by greater than 20% declines in razor and youth vehicles.

本季的零售趨勢與最近幾季的趨勢類似。在越野車領域，我們的多功能車零售額出現高個位數下降，其中全地形車的零售額出現兩位數的下降。由於刮鬍刀和青少年汽車銷量下降超過 20%，青少年娛樂活動也出現下滑。

Volatility amongst intra-quarter months was elevated with double-digit swings month to month, with February being down roughly 20%.

季度內月份波動加劇，月波動幅度達兩位數，2 月下跌約 20%。

It's worthwhile calling out our premium products such as Polaris' Expedition, RANGER XD, and RANGER XP NorthStar, as these products had positive retail on the quarter. The sustained demand for our premium, feature-rich product products highlights strength among cash buyers.

值得一提的是我們的優質產品，例如 Polaris 的 Expedition、RANGER XD 和 RANGER XP NorthStar，因為這些產品在本季的零售業表現良好。對我們優質、功能豐富的產品的持續需求凸顯了現金買家的實力。

Within on-road, the motorcycle market continues to be pressured, both domestically and internationally, due to its discretionary nature. However, Indian motorcycles outperformed the industry and gain share in North America, driven by the new PowerPlus lineup in our heavyweight portfolio of bikes.

在公路領域，由於摩托車市場的自主性，它在國內和國際上持續面臨壓力。然而，在我們重量級摩托車產品組合中推出的全新 PowerPlus 系列的推動下，印第安摩托車的表現優於該行業並在北美獲得了市場份額。

In marine, the boat show season is behind us, and retail at those shows was flat to slightly down against last year. During our recent dealer visits, there was a lot of excitement from dealers regarding the new boats we launched. And while we expect sales pressure to remain in the marine industry due to high cost and the discretionary nature of the product, we believe we can wins share with our innovative portfolio of boats.

在船舶領域，船展季節已經過去，這些展會的零售額與去年相比持平或略有下降。在我們最近拜訪經銷商期間，經銷商對我們推出的新船表現出很大的興奮之情。儘管我們預計由於成本高昂和產品的自由裁量性，船舶行業的銷售壓力仍將持續存在，但我們相信，我們能夠憑藉創新的船舶組合贏得市場份額。

As previously mentioned, we also continue to see OEMs in the marine space impacting share with aggressive promotions to help dealers move non-current inventory. While this negatively impacts us in the short term, we do not believe this is a long-term strategy to move share.

如前所述，我們也繼續看到船舶領域的原始設備製造商透過積極的促銷來影響市場份額，以幫助經銷商轉移非現有庫存。雖然這在短期內會對我們產生負面影響，但我們並不認為這是提高市場佔有率的長期策略。

In the first quarter of 2025, Bob and I spent time meeting with some of our off-road and marine dealers. This is an important part of the job, and I always walk away from those meetings impressed with the partnership we have with our dealers and their commitment to Polaris.

2025 年第一季度，鮑勃和我花時間與一些越野和船舶經銷商會面。這是工作中很重要的一部分，每次參加這些會議，我都會對我們與經銷商之間的合作關係以及他們對 Polaris 的承諾印象深刻。

My takeaway from those meetings are that partnership matters. They feel like we're listening and are making appropriate adjustments, and they were appreciative of us meeting our commitment to reduce inventory last year and into this year.

我從這些會議中得到的啟示是夥伴關係很重要。他們覺得我們正在傾聽並做出適當的調整，他們很感激我們去年和今年都履行了減少庫存的承諾。

Innovation matters. Dealers feel we're listening to our customers, and it can be seen in the features we added to our model year '25 lineup. Innovation also includes quality, where we've seen significant improvements in model year '25 warranty claims. And dealers confirmed that Polaris is among the best in this regard.

創新很重要。經銷商感覺到我們正在傾聽客戶的意見，這從我們為 25 年車型陣容添加的功能中就可以看出。創新還包括質量，我們已經看到 25 年保固索賠有了顯著改善。經銷商也證實，北極星在這方面名列前茅。

Lastly, dealers voiced concern and uncertainty for the remainder of the year. We assured them that we would have remained close and make the appropriate adjustments to help ensure their businesses are protected.

最後，經銷商對今年剩餘時間的銷售表示擔憂和不確定性。我們向他們保證，我們將保持密切聯繫並做出適當調整，以幫助確保他們的業務受到保護。

From our visits, it was clear that those dealers who are focusing on all five profit centers within their dealership are faring better financially given strength and service, used vehicles, and accessories. So while uncertainty remains high, I feel our relationship with dealers is healthy and strong. We understand each other's priorities and are working hard to ensure we experience mutual success.

從我們的訪問中可以清楚地看出，那些專注於其經銷店內所有五個利潤中心的經銷商在實力和服務、二手車和配件方面表現更好。因此，儘管不確定性仍然很高，但我認為我們與經銷商的關係是健康且牢固的。我們了解彼此的優先事項，並正在努力確保共同成功。

Now, shifting gears to tariffs. Every day seems to bring a new headline or new information, so we're staying focused, keeping a level head, and being proactive. This includes going to Washington DC to meet with our elected officials and their staff to re-emphasize the fact that we're the only major US-based power sports company.

現在，我們來談談關稅問題。每天似乎都會出現新的頭條新聞或新的訊息，因此我們要集中註意力，保持冷靜的頭腦，並積極主動。這包括前往華盛頓特區會見我們的民選官員及其工作人員，再次強調我們是唯一一家總部位於美國的大型動力運動公司。

Our story started more than 70 years ago as a small business founded in Minnesota. And while we have grown to be a global company, we maintain our strong sense of pride being headquartered in the US with the most significant US manufacturing, testing, and R&D presence in the industry.

我們的故事始於 70 多年前，當時我們是一家在明尼蘇達州成立的小企業。雖然我們已經成長為一家全球性公司，但我們仍然對總部位於美國並擁有業內最重要的美國製造、測試和研發機構感到自豪。

We employ more than 8,000 Americans while supporting approximately 35,000 American workers employed by our US dealers. In addition, approximately 65% of our US production value stems from US content.

我們僱用了 8,000 多名美國人，同時為我們的美國經銷商僱用的約 35,000 名美國工人提供支援。此外，我們美國產值的約 65% 源自美國內容。

Unfortunately, the tariff policies as written today have created an environment that disadvantages Polaris for our US manufacturing footprint.

不幸的是，今天制定的關稅政策已經創造了一個不利於 Polaris 在美國進行製造的環境。

As we mentioned at our Capital Markets Day in March, we import approximately $250 million of components from China to the US to be used to assemble vehicles. Under the current tariff regime for China, we are forecasting an incremental tariff rate of approximately 145% on our US-imported Chinese components, equating to approximately $200 million to $240 million in new estimated tariff cost costs this year.

正如我們在三月的資本市場日上提到的那樣，我們從中國進口了價值約 2.5 億美元的零件到美國用於組裝汽車。根據中國現行的關稅制度，我們預測從美國進口的中國零件的增量關稅稅率將達到約 145%，相當於今年新增約 2 億至 2.4 億美元的關稅成本。

This 145% tariff rate doesn't apply to competitors who also source from China but manufacture in other countries like Mexico or Japan, and then ship products to the US. The same goes for many of the retaliatory tariffs throughout the rest of the world, which equates to a potential gross tariff impact this year of approximately $35 million.

此 145% 的關稅稅率不適用於同樣從中國採購但在墨西哥或日本等其他國家生產，然後將產品運往美國的競爭對手。世界其他地區的許多報復性關稅也是如此，這相當於今年潛在的總關稅影響約為 3500 萬美元。

This current environment puts us at a competitive disadvantage because we have a US manufacturing footprint.

由於我們的製造業足跡遍布美國，當前的環境使我們處於競爭劣勢。

All when we expect to incur between approximately $320 million to $370 million of gross tariff costs, of which approximately $60 million to $70 million was budgeted within our original guidance. With costs being capitalized and inventory, we can defer a large portion of these costs into the back half of the year in 2026.

我們預計將產生約 3.2 億至 3.7 億美元的總關稅成本，其中約 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元符合我們最初的指導預算。隨著成本資本化和庫存的增加，我們可以將大部分成本推遲到 2026 年下半年。

In response to the tariffs, we've launched a tariff-mitigation strategy. Following the initial tariff announcements in February, we mobilized cross-functional teams to evaluate the implications for our supply chain and cost structure. These teams meet daily. We have war rooms and have already implemented several actions to help mitigate the potential tariff impact.

為了因應關稅，我們推出了關稅減免策略。在二月首次宣布關稅後，我們動員了跨職能團隊來評估其對我們的供應鏈和成本結構的影響。這些團隊每天都會開會。我們設有作戰室，並已採取多項行動來幫助減輕潛在的關稅影響。

To manage this complexity and reduce our exposure, we're executing a four pronged mitigation strategy focused on, one, making adjustments to our supply chain and manufacturing to diversify sourcing and optimize our production footprint. Second, initiating cost control initiatives to offset pressures elsewhere in the business.

為了管理這種複雜性並減少我們的風險，我們正在執行四管齊下的緩解策略，重點是：第一，調整我們的供應鏈和製造，以實現採購多樣化並優化我們的生產足跡。第二，啟動成本控制措施來抵銷業務其他方面的壓力。

Third, reprioritizing markets and pricing where appropriate to preserve margin, and finally, ongoing government affairs and advocacy to ensure our perspective as a US manufacturer is represented in policy discussions.

第三，在適當的情況下重新調整市場和定價以保持利潤率；最後，持續進行政府事務和宣傳，以確保我們作為美國製造商的觀點在政策討論中得到體現。

Within our supply chain and manufacturing footprint, our media focus has been on our Chinese content, given the size of the impact. We've started moving sourcing out of China and into other countries, including the US in 2018. By the end of this year, we anticipate we'll have reduced our Chinese source parts by approximately 30% with plans in place to make further reductions in 2026.

在我們的供應鏈和製造足跡中，考慮到影響的規模，我們的媒體重點一直放在中文內容上。我們已於 2018 年開始將採購業務從中國轉移到其他國家，包括美國。到今年年底，我們預計中國零件的採購量將減少約 30%，並計劃在 2026 年進一步減少。

Regarding our manufacturing in Mexico and USMCA compliance, approximately 95% of our US imports from Mexico are USMCA qualified. We are working to increase that percentage to further reduce tariff exposure.

關於我們在墨西哥的製造和 USMCA 合規性，我們從墨西哥進口的美國產品中約有 95% 符合 USMCA 要求。我們正在努力提高該比例，以進一步降低關稅風險。

On the cost-control front, we acted quickly to reduce discretionary spending, including tightening travel requirements and placing a selective near-term pause on hiring. As Bob will discuss shortly, we're taking a disciplined and proactive approach to managing costs, preserving liquidity, and ensuring players remains well positioned in this period of uncertainty.

在成本控制方面，我們迅速採取行動減少可自由支配的開支，包括收緊差旅要求和選擇性地暫停短期招聘。正如鮑勃即將討論的那樣，我們採取了嚴謹而積極主動的方式來管理成本、保持流動性並確保玩家在這段不確定的時期保持有利地位。

In response to retaliatory tariffs, we've taken action to reduce shipments of slingshot and certain motorcycles to Canada and motorcycles to Europe for a short period. We do not fear losing any material sales and share given current dealer inventory levels in those regions, and we can re-evaluate this approach mid-year.

為了應對報復性關稅，我們已採取行動，在短時間內減少對加拿大的彈弓和某些摩托車以及對歐洲的摩托車的出貨量。考慮到這些地區目前經銷商的庫存水平，我們並不擔心損失任何實質的銷售額和市場份額，我們可以在年中重新評估這種方法。

We also preposition motorcycles in Europe ahead of the announcement of retaliatory tariffs. We're carefully assessing our pricing strategy and ensure we remain competitive while navigating the complexity of the current trade environment.

我們還在歐洲宣布報復性關稅之前預先部署了摩托車。我們正在仔細評估我們的定價策略，並確保我們在應對當前複雜的貿易環境的同時保持競爭力。

We began meeting with congressional members as well as leaders from the administration a couple of weeks ago and we'll continue to do so. My takeaway from those conversations is that we're approaching this in the right manner and the message is resonating, that the only US headquarter power sports company is being impacted the most.

幾週前，我們開始與國會議員以及政府領導人會面，我們將繼續這樣做。我從這些談話中得到的啟示是，我們正在以正確的方式處理這個問題，而訊息引起了共鳴，即唯一一家總部位於美國的動力運動公司受到的影響最大。

We believe the Trump administration understands our issues, and we remain hopeful that productive negotiations on tariffs between the administration and key countries will progress in the near term.

我們相信川普政府理解我們的問題，我們仍然希望政府與主要國家之間的關稅談判能夠在短期內取得富有成效的進展。

As you can see, there's a lot going on, and we are implementing actions that can reduce our tariff exposure over the short and long term. What I just walked through is not an exhaustive list. There are several other actions identified that our teams are working diligently on and we'll execute them once we have further clarity on tariff policy.

正如您所看到的，有很多事情正在發生，我們正在採取行動，以減少短期和長期的關稅風險。我剛剛介紹的並不是一份詳盡的清單。我們的團隊正在努力進行其他幾項行動，一旦我們進一步明確關稅政策，我們就會執行這些行動。

Adding together the new net impact from tariffs, or mitigation efforts, and the accounting deferral, we estimate the impact from tariffs in 2025 to be less than $225 million. Our teams are working hard on a large funnel of mitigation actions with the goal of reducing the tariff impact even further.

將關稅或緩解措施的新淨影響和會計遞延加在一起，我們估計 2025 年關稅的影響將不到 2.25 億美元。我們的團隊正在努力採取一系列緩解措施，目標是進一步降低關稅的影響。

While we manage the immediate challenges of tariff, my leadership team and I remain focused on the critical long-term initiatives that are expected to drive value for customers, dealers, and shareholders long into the future.

在我們應對當前關稅挑戰的同時，我和我的領導團隊仍將重點關注預計在未來長期為客戶、經銷商和股東創造價值的關鍵長期舉措。

Mark Suarez, our VP of Off-Road Operations, did an excellent job at our capital markets day in March, laying out some of the actions his team is taking to build a more efficient operating culture in our manufacturing facilities. So far, his team has executed their agenda, and we're ahead of our plan and our manufacturing facilities.

我們的非公路營運副總裁馬克·蘇亞雷斯 (Mark Suarez) 在三月份的資本市場日上表現非常出色，他闡述了他的團隊為在我們的製造工廠中建立更有效率的營運文化而採取的一些行動。到目前為止，他的團隊已經執行了他們的議程，我們的計劃和製造設施也已經提前完成了。

We also continue to push the pace on innovation and have some exciting products launching later this year that are expected to enhance our industry-leading portfolio of vehicles and boats already in dealer showrooms. Some of you saw the new Bennington digital helm at the Miami Boat Show, and many of our analysts were able to experience the dynamic shock technology of our snowmobiles in West Yellowstone.

我們也將繼續加快創新步伐，並將在今年稍後推出一些令人興奮的產品，這些產品有望增強我們已在經銷商展廳中處於行業領先地位的車輛和船舶產品組合。你們中的一些人在邁阿密遊艇展上看到了新的 Bennington 數位舵，我們的許多分析師能夠在西黃石體驗我們的雪地摩托車的動態衝擊技術。

Turning to working capital, we committed to you in January that we were focused on lowering our finished goods inventory, and I'm proud to say the team did a great job of that during the first quarter. This effort helped us achieve our highest Q1 operating free cash flow in nine years. There's more work to be done, but the progress is measurable.

談到營運資金，我們在一月份向您承諾，我們將專注於降低成品庫存，我很自豪地說，團隊在第一季在這方面做得很好。這項努力幫助我們實現了九年來最高的第一季營運自由現金流。還有很多工作要做，但進度是可以衡量的。

Lastly, on dealer health, a broader team and I have met with many dealers this year. I'm encouraged by the feedback I get from dealers and the rankings our team receives from dealer surveys. We're again ranked number one in the categories of sales and service. We achieved a net promoter score of over 70, which indicates we're listening and making the right investments in our dealers. This partnership is vital in both good times and bad, and I'm confident that we are a trusted partner to our dealers.

最後，關於經銷商的健康狀況，我和一個更廣泛的團隊今年與許多經銷商會面。我從經銷商獲得的回饋以及我們團隊從經銷商調查中獲得的排名令我感到鼓舞。我們在銷售和服務類別中再次排名第一。我們的淨推薦值超過了 70，這表明我們正在傾聽經銷商的意見並做出正確的投資。無論在順境或逆境中，這種合作關係都至關重要，我相信我們是經銷商值得信賴的合作夥伴。

So while there's a great deal of uncertainty in the market today, we have a plan in place to help mitigate the impact from tariffs. Additionally, we're executing our long-term strategy to build built to deliver shareholder value through sales growth, strong earnings power, and higher returns. The current market conditions will not cause us to deviate from our strategy, and I remain confident that Polaris will emerge as a stronger company and will generate above average return for shareholders. I'm going to turn it over to Bob to provide you with more details on the financials. Bob?

因此，儘管目前市場存在很大的不確定性，但我們已經制定了計劃來幫助減輕關稅的影響。此外，我們正在實施我們的長期策略，透過銷售成長、強勁的獲利能力和更高的回報來實現股東價值。當前的市場狀況不會導致我們偏離策略，我仍然相信 Polaris 將成為一家更強大的公司，並為股東帶來高於平均的回報。我將把這個任務交給鮑勃，讓他向您提供有關財務的更多詳細資訊。鮑伯？

Thanks, Mike, and good morning or afternoon to everyone on the call today.

謝謝，麥克，今天電話會議中的每個人都早上好或下午好。

Our first-quarter sales met expectations, and the decline versus prior year was driven by planned production cuts to help manage dealer inventory. Promotions were higher than we expected, which was somewhat offset by slightly more volume than we had expected as our plans continue to improve build rates.

我們第一季的銷售額達到了預期，與去年同期相比的下降是由於為管理經銷商庫存而計劃減產所致。促銷活動高於我們的預期，但由於我們的計劃繼續提高建造率，因此比預期略多的銷量在一定程度上抵消了這種影響。

Our international business dropped 16% due to weak markets in off-road and on-road. We believe our international dealer inventory is healthier now and now positioned to grow once retail demand returns.

由於越野車和公路車市場疲軟，我們的國際業務下降了 16%。我們相信，我們的國際經銷商庫存現在更加健康，一旦零售需求恢復，庫存就會成長。

PG&A sales were flat year over year, with strong parts and aftermarket apparel sales offsetting attachments on lower whole good volumes. The main challenges to our margins were volume, promotions and effects, partially offset by lower operational and warranty expenses.

PG&A 銷售額較去年同期持平，零件和售後服飾銷售強勁，抵銷了附件銷售額因整機銷售下降的影響。我們利潤率面臨的主要挑戰是銷售、促銷和效果，但營運和保固費用的降低部分抵消了這種影響。

There was no material impact on our results from tariff costs this quarter with much of the current tariff costs deferred to later periods.

本季關稅成本對我們的業績沒有重大影響，大部分當前關稅成本被推遲到以後期間。

Turning to off-road, sales were down 10% due to lower volume and higher promotions, somewhat offset by a favorable mix. The LRV industry in North America continues to be driven by weakness in consumer sentiment and dealer focus on inventory levels.

談到越野車，由於銷量下降和促銷活動增加，銷量下降了 10%，但良好的產品組合在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。北美的輕軌列車行業繼續受到消費者信心疲軟和經銷商對庫存水平的關注的推動。

While inventory continues to improve for the industry, it seems there's still more work to do before dealers feel comfortable with their position in this current environment. That said, we believe inventory levels of our vehicles and dealerships are healthy, both relative to historical norms and in comparison to other OEMs.

儘管行業庫存持續改善，但經銷商在當前環境下對自身地位感到滿意之前似乎還有更多工作要做。也就是說，我們相信我們的汽車和經銷商的庫存水準是健康的，無論是相對於歷史標準還是與其他 OEM 相比。

While the late snow did not have a material impact on our sales, it did provide some relief in dealer inventory after two consecutive weeks snow seasons. Strong retail in Q1 resulted in sequential dealer inventory coming down over 20% from Q4 '24 to Q1 '25.

雖然晚雪並未對我們的銷售造成實質影響，但在連續兩週的雪季之後，它確實減輕了經銷商的庫存。第一季零售業強勁，導致經銷商庫存從 2024 年第四季到 2025 年第一季連續下降超過 20%。

Gross profit margin was down 147 basis points, with much of the drag being driven by promotions and the prolonged downturn in power sports and the macroeconomy.

毛利率下降了 147 個基點，主要原因是促銷以及動力運動和宏觀經濟的長期低迷。

I do want to touch on warranty expense, as this was a positive contributor to the quarter. We have invested heavily in quality over the past five-plus years and believe we are beginning to see positive results from those investments in our model year '25 vehicles.

我確實想談談保固費用，因為這對本季產生了積極的貢獻。在過去五年多的時間裡，我們在品質方面投入了大量資金，並相信這些投資在我們 25 款車型上開始產生積極的效果。

Like our progress with lean and operational efficiencies, we should start to see improvements in warranty, positively contribute to our margins in a normalized environment.

就像我們在精實和營運效率方面取得的進步一樣，我們應該開始看到保固方面的改善，並在正常化的環境中為我們的利潤率做出積極貢獻。

In addition, customers are taking notice of these investments as indicated by our NPS scores for products, sales and service, which are at five-year highs.

此外，客戶也注意到了這些投資，我們的產品、銷售和服務的 NPS 得分達到了五年來的最高水準。

Switching to on-road, sales during the quarter were down 20%, driven by a challenging motorcycle market and the timing of engine deliveries at our EXIM business in France. For EXIM, we expect this issue to be resolved this quarter and to make up lost sales in the back half of the year.

轉向公路銷售，本季銷售額下降了 20%，因為摩托車市場充滿挑戰，以及我們法國 EXIM 業務的引擎交付時間。對於進出口銀行，我們預計這個問題將在本季得到解決，並在下半年彌補銷售損失。

Meaningful market share during the quarter, driven by our heavyweight business. Adjusted gross profit was down 489 basis points driven by a year over year mixed headwinds and elevated promotions.

受我們重量級業務的推動，本季市佔率顯著提升。調整後毛利年減 489 個基點，原因是各種不利因素和促銷活動增加。

Margins were better than we had planned due to operational efficiencies. In marine Sales were down 7% in line with our planned reduction in shipments as we continue to take a build to order approach.

由於營運效率的提高，利潤率比我們計劃的要好。由於我們繼續採取按訂單生產的方式，海運銷售額下降了 7%，與我們計劃的出貨量減少一致。

The latest industry data we have shows the pontoon industry is down 11% year-to-date, which is a continuation of the prolonged downturn we have seen in marines since 2023.

我們掌握的最新產業數據顯示，浮橋產業今年迄今已下降 11%，這是自 2023 年以來海軍陸戰隊長期低迷的延續。

Within Bennington, we continue to see good traction with our new M-series pontoon, which has a rich mix versus the prior model it replaced. Also in Bennington, we started -- recently started to ship a pontoon with standard features and a nationally advertised price, which is being well received by both dealers and consumers. Gross profit in marine was down given unfavorable absorption from lower volumes.

在本寧頓，我們繼續看到新 M 系列浮橋的良好發展勢頭，與它所取代的上一代型號相比，它擁有豐富的功能。同樣在本寧頓，我們最近開始運送具有標準功能和全國廣告價格的浮橋，受到了經銷商和消費者的一致好評。由於銷量下降導致吸收不利，海運業務的毛利下降。

Moving to our financial position, we have instituted our recessionary playbook given the combination of this prolonged downturn in power sports, coupled with the uncertainty ahead of us around trade and economic policy.

談到我們的財務狀況，考慮到強力運動的長期低迷，加上貿易和經濟政策面臨的不確定性，我們已經制定了應對經濟衰退的策略。

We do not make this decision lightly, and this operating model could be short-lived if we have favorable clarity after the 90-day pause on tariffs. However, we thought it was prudent to enact these principles proactively to protect cash and maintain strategic flexibility.

我們不會輕易做出這個決定，如果在 90 天的關稅暫停期後我們能獲得有利的明朗情況，這種營運模式可能會很短暫。然而，我們認為主動實施這些原則是明智之舉，以保護現金並保持策略靈活性。

Our first priority is cash preservation. We made good progress in Q1 reducing working capital and generating stronger than normal free cash flow.

我們的首要任務是保住現金。我們在第一季取得了良好進展，減少了營運資本，並產生了比正常水平更強勁的自由現金流。

We have also taken a fresh look at the CapEx budget and have identified a list of actions to defer at this time. These actions are focused more on maintenance versus growth or innovation.

我們也重新審視了資本支出預算，並確定了目前需要延後的行動清單。這些行動更著重於維護而不是成長或創新。

Emerging stronger is a key part of this operating model. And while you will see modest reductions in R&D, these reductions will not have an impact on product launch timing.

變得更加強大是這項營運模式的關鍵部分。雖然你會看到研發費用適度減少，但這些減少不會對產品發佈時間產生影響。

The last big bucket of actions involves managing costs. We have removed approximately 10% of our salaried workforce last year and have paused spending in some areas to help control costs. We are also evaluating a number of opportunities that would be acted on upon after we have clarity on tariffs, and it makes sense both financially and strategically.

最後一項重要行動涉及成本管理。去年，我們裁掉了約 10% 的受薪員工，並暫停了部分地區的支出，以控製成本。我們也正在評估明確關稅後可以採取行動的一系列機會，這在財務和策略上都是有意義的。

We intend to be very prudent with capital until we return to a more predictable environment. But just to be clear, even as we model downside scenarios for Q2 given the current economic landscape, we do not anticipate concerns with liquidity. We are maintaining our regular dialogue with existing lending partners, including evaluating options for additional flexibility.

在恢復到更可預測的環境之前，我們打算對資本採取非常謹慎的態度。但需要明確的是，即使我們根據當前的經濟狀況對第二季的下行情境進行建模，我們也不預期會出現流動性方面的擔憂。我們正在與現有貸款合作夥伴保持定期對話，包括評估增加靈活性的選擇。

Therefore, we plan to remain agile in this environment and expect to have more clarity around tariffs in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we are positioning ourselves prudently to withstand the turbulence and come out stronger for our employees, dealers, customers, and shareholders.

因此，我們計劃在這種環境下保持靈活，並期望在未來幾週內對關稅有更清晰的了解。同時，我們正在謹慎地定位自己，以抵禦動盪，為我們的員工、經銷商、客戶和股東變得更加強大。

Given that we have withdrawn full-year guidance, we thought it would be helpful to provide more information on our second quarter assumptions with the caveat that these do not incorporate any change in the current global tariff policy as it stands today.

鑑於我們已經撤回了全年指引，我們認為提供更多有關第二季度假設的資訊將會有所幫助，但需要注意的是，這些資訊並未考慮當前全球關稅政策的任何變化。

We also do not know what the impact the current environment will have on retail demand, and thus our assumptions today assume retail remains modestly lower year over year.

我們也不知道當前環境會對零售需求產生什麼影響，因此我們今天的假設是零售量比去年同期略有下降。

First, we expect second-quarter sales to be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion. We intend on shipping fewer units than we retail due to softer retail environment and our desire to hold dealer inventory close to current levels, coupled with our decision to delay some shipments to Canada and Europe.

首先，我們預計第二季的銷售額將在 16 億美元至 18 億美元之間。由於零售環境疲軟、我們希望將經銷商庫存保持在接近當前水平，再加上我們決定推遲向加拿大和歐洲的部分發貨，我們計劃發貨的單位數量將少於零售數量。

We are also assuming the current elevated promotional environment continues. We estimate incremental tariffs will impact the P&L between $10 million to $20 million for the quarter.

我們也假設當前高漲的促銷環境將會持續下去。我們估計增量關稅將對本季的損益造成 1,000 萬至 2,000 萬美元的影響。

Within our tariff mitigation strategy, we think it's important to know we have three buckets of action items. The first are live actions we are already executing. Second includes actions we are reviewing and likely to execute soon. The last bucket of actions requires more clarity on trade policies before we can act.

在我們的關稅減免策略中，我們認為了解三項行動項目非常重要。首先是我們已經在執行的實際行動。第二部分包括我們正在審查並可能很快執行的行動。最後一項行動要求我們在採取行動之前對貿易政策有更清晰的認識。

As Mike noted, if the current tariff levels do not change, particularly for China, we estimate the fiscal year 2025 net new tariff impact to our P&L after mitigation and deferral will be less than $225 million.

正如麥克所指出的，如果當前的關稅水準不變，特別是對中國而言，我們估計，在減免和延期之後，2025 財年淨新關稅對我們的損益表的影響將不到 2.25 億美元。

We are in the early stages of these efforts, and the goal is to significantly reduce this burden. This does not include the original $60 million to $70 million of tariff costs we budgeted for the section 301 of tariffs. We have strong relationships with our dealers. Our innovation is winning in the market, and we continue to realize operational efficiencies.

我們正處於這些努力的早期階段，目標是大幅減輕這一負擔。這還不包括我們為第 301 條關稅預算的最初 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元關稅成本。我們與經銷商保持著良好的關係。我們的創新在市場上獲勝，並且我們繼續實現營運效率。

We do not see anything in this current environment that derails our long-term strategy to make Polaris a company with stronger earnings power and greater returns.

我們認為，當前環境下沒有任何因素會阻礙我們的長期策略，即使 Polaris 成為一家盈利能力更強、回報更高的公司。

Yes, these are certainly interesting times, but a sound strategy has us aligned so we can manage through this dynamic environment with the goal of emerging stronger.

是的，這確實是個有趣的時代，但合理的策略可以讓我們協調一致，從而能夠在這個充滿活力的環境中取得進步，最終變得更加強大。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Mike to wrap up the call. Go ahead, Mike.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給麥克結束通話。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks Bob. I'll wrap up with a few comments. First, we have a plan in place to mitigate a portion of the tariff costs impacting our business. We are positioned to execute additional mitigation strategies as we gain clarity on tariff policy, including being prepared for the end of the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on most countries.

謝謝鮑勃。最後我想談幾點看法。首先，我們制定了一項計劃來減輕對我們業務產生影響的部分關稅成本。隨著關稅政策逐漸明朗，我們準備實施額外的緩解策略，包括為大多數國家 90 天互惠關稅暫停期的結束做好準備。

We've implemented our recession playbook focused on cash preservation and liquidity. We decided to implement this operating model as our industry has been in a prolonged downturn coupled with uncertainty around tariffs and consumer health. We'll continue to monitor the evolving environment and adapt our approach accordingly.

我們已經實施了以現金保全和流動性為重點的經濟衰退應對策略。我們決定實施這種營運模式，因為我們的產業一直處於長期低迷狀態，加上關稅和消費者健康狀況的不確定性。我們將繼續監測不斷變化的環境並相應地調整我們的方法。

Lastly, we haven't lost sight of our long-term strategy I’ve been talking about since 2022. We strongly believe in our position as a global leader in power sports. We have clear long-term financial targets that can unlock value for our shareholders. This is taking longer than we expected due to macroeconomic factors, but trust that we can measure meaningful changes happening within our operations and dealer partnerships that give me great confidence that we're making significant progress.

最後，我們並沒有忘記我自 2022 年以來一直在談論的長期策略。我們堅信我們在力量運動領域的全球領先地位。我們有明確的長期財務目標，可以為股東創造價值。由於宏觀經濟因素，這比我們預期的時間要長，但相信我們可以衡量我們的營運和經銷商合作夥伴關係中正在發生的有意義的變化，這讓我非常有信心我們正在取得重大進展。

We're focused on the items within our control, and I believe with a little clarity, it will become more evident that all the work we've done has positioned players to emerge stronger from this. We appreciate your continued support. And with that, I'll turn it over to Alison to open the line up for questions.

我們專注於我們能控制的項目，我相信，只要稍微理清思路，我們所做的所有工作都會讓玩家變得更強大，這一點將變得更加明顯。感謝您一直以來的支持。接下來，我將把時間交給艾莉森，讓她開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Altobello, Raymond James.

（操作員指示）喬·阿爾托貝洛、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Thanks. Hey guys, good morning, just want to circle back on the tariff mitigation efforts that you guys are undertaking here. You did allude to potential pricing strategies. And I'm just curious how much pricing might play a role, particularly in off road? I would think that you guys would be kind of a first mover, there and so I'm curious, how much are we thinking about and when might you need to make that call?

謝謝。嘿，大家早上好，我只是想回顧一下你們在這裡正在進行的關稅減免努力。您確實提到了潛在的定價策略。我只是好奇定價會發揮多大作用，特別是在越野方面？我認為你們會是先行者，所以我很好奇，我們考慮了多少，什麼時候你們需要做出這個決定？

Yeah, we provided clarity to our dealers late last week that pricing is going to remain as is through the end of May.

是的，我們上週晚些時候向經銷商明確表示，價格將維持現狀直至五月底。

I mean, look, the reality is we're going to be bearing significantly more costs than many of our competitors. But we're also dealing with an industry that has, I would say, a fairly inelastic buyer, we've got retail rates that are continuing to be down. We've clearly been in a recession from a power sports perspective. And so adding price at this point becomes a very difficult proposition.

我的意思是，事實上，我們將承擔比許多競爭對手多得多的成本。但我認為，我們面對的產業也擁有相當缺乏彈性的買家，我們的零售價格持續下降。從力量運動的角度來看，我們顯然已經陷入衰退。因此，此時提高價格就變得非常困難。

So what I've done is I've told the team we're not looking at that as a relief valve, we've got to look inside. It's why we're moving so aggressive around the supply chain.

所以我所做的就是告訴團隊，我們不要將其視為安全閥，我們必須從內部進行觀察。這就是我們如此積極地推進供應鏈建設的原因。

The team's making really good progress. I mean, the fact that, we had moved 15% of the content from China out prior to ’25. And in 2025, we're going to get that number up to 30%, and quite frankly we've got the team out investigating if they can go even further or faster.

球隊正在取得非常好的進步。我的意思是，我們在 2025 年之前已經將 15% 的內容從中國轉移出去了。到 2025 年，我們將把這個數字提高到 30%，坦白說，我們已經派出團隊調查是否可以走得更遠或更快。

And I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the negotiations with the administration. I was encouraged with the news that came out last night, whether it's substantiated or not, it's tough to know around relief for the automotive sector.

我還沒準備好放棄與政府的談判。昨晚傳出的消息讓我感到鼓舞，無論是否得到證實，都很難知道汽車產業是否能緩解。

I think the administration has a far greater appreciation for some of the very detailed dynamics that we and others who manufacture in the United States and employ labor that works on high-margin vehicles and the fact that we're relying on less than 9% of our total costs get sold coming in from China So it's very low, and I think there's an appreciation for that, and I think we can find a way to, work through that.

我認為政府對我們以及其他在美國製造並僱用勞動力生產高利潤汽車的企業的一些非常詳細的動態有著更深的理解，而且我們依賴的來自中國的銷售成本不到總成本的 9%，所以這個比例非常低，我認為人們對此有所了解，我認為我們可以找到解決這個問題的方法。

So we've got a lot of different avenues, and we're not viewing price as some very easily movable, item. We obviously will take a look at it, it'll probably be very detailed segment by segment, country by country, and there'll be more to come on that down the road.

因此，我們有很多不同的途徑，而且我們不會將價格視為一些容易變動的商品。我們顯然會對此進行研究，可能會非常詳細地逐一部分、逐個國家地進行研究，並且以後還會有更多研究。

Very helpful and just to kind of follow up on that in terms of off-road, you talked about the elevated promotion levels and a lot of your competitors that need to clean up some age inventory. Where are we in terms of -- if you look at it as a baseball game, what inning are we in terms of that clean-up process, and when do you think you guys might be able to start, regaining market share again?

非常有幫助，只是為了跟進越野方面的問題，您談到了提高促銷水平以及許多競爭對手需要清理一些舊庫存。我們處於什麼位置——如果你把它看作一場棒球比賽，那麼就清理過程而言，我們處於哪一局，你認為你們什麼時候可以開始重新獲得市場份額？

Yeah, I think as it relates to the off-road, I would say we're probably getting into the later innings of the game.

是的，我認為就越野而言，我想我們可能會進入比賽的後期。

The good news is that everybody has improved from where they were last year. But we still have some competitors that have DSOs that are 2x where we're at. Now granted, they're much smaller player than us, but the day sales that they have sitting at the dealer are 2x and other competitors are 20%, maybe 30% above where we're at. And their non-current mix is unfavorable relative to us at the dealer level.

好消息是，每個人的水準都比去年有所進步。但我們的某些競爭對手的 DSO 數量仍是我們的兩倍。誠然，他們的規模比我們小得多，但他們在經銷商處的每日銷售額是我們的 2 倍，而其他競爭對手的銷售額比我們高出 20%，甚至 30%。而且從經銷商層級來看，他們的非流動資產組合相對於我們而言是不利的。

And I think that the concern is that we continue to see that non-current discounting; that's got a heavy impact. And we're just not going to participate in that. Those are likely not buyers of our product anyway. Many of these products are being offered at, $5,000 to $10,000 off to clear out inventory that's two-, maybe three-years old.

我認為令人擔憂的是，我們繼續看到非經常性折扣；這影響很大。我們不會參與其中。無論如何，這些人很可能不是我們產品的買家。許多此類產品的售價為 5,000 至 10,000 美元，以清理兩年甚至三年前的庫存。

So I think we're -- there's definitely been progress made, and it's really going to depend on when retail starts to stabilize because the two are heavily correlated. But we're confident that once we get into an environment that the inventory is much cleaner throughout the network, there is some progress against that, and the consumer starts to stabilize. We're going to be in a great spot to win. I talked about it, the new products that we've been coming out with, as well as what we have left to come out this year.

所以我認為我們——肯定取得了進展，這實際上取決於零售業何時開始穩定，因為兩者是高度相關的。但我們相信，一旦我們進入一個整個網路庫存更加清潔的環境，就會取得一些進展，消費者也會開始穩定下來。我們將處於有利的獲勝位置。我談論了我們已推出的新產品以及今年剩餘要推出的產品。

We know from talking with our dealers. They're resonating with our customer set. And I mentioned the razor survey, [where] we're doing a lot of work behind the scenes to understand the dynamics with our customers. And the great news is they're sticking with Polaris, the great news is they're still using their product. The bad news is they're deferring repurchase and trade in because of the current market conditions. So I think getting market condition clarity is going to be good on many levels, and I think we're well positioned to take advantage of that.

我們透過與經銷商的交談得知了這一點。它們與我們的客戶產生了共鳴。我提到了剃刀調查，我們在幕後做了很多工作來了解客戶的動態。好消息是他們繼續使用 Polaris，好消息是他們仍在使用他們的產品。壞消息是，由於當前的市場狀況，他們推遲了回購和以舊換新。因此，我認為了解市場狀況在許多層面上都是有益的，而且我認為我們完全有能力利用這一點。

Got it. Thank you, Mike.

知道了。謝謝你，麥克。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普。

Hey, good morning. Unsurprisingly wanted to follow up on tariffs. Obviously, a lot of helpful detail in the slides so appreciate that. I guess you know you're saying less than $225 million of net new post-mitigation tariff impact this year, most of that in the back half. So if we just say let's say $200 million. The simple math of just doubling that would suggest it could be $426 million. But I guess, presumably, some of your mitigation strategies also might ramp over the year. So any possibility just to help us with how we should be thinking about At current rates what the annualized impact from tariffs would be in 2026?

嘿，早安。毫不意外地想要跟進關稅問題。顯然，幻燈片中有很多有用的細節，因此我們對此表示感謝。我想你知道，你說的是今年緩解關稅措施後的淨新增影響不到 2.25 億美元，其中大部分發生在下半年。所以如果我們假設是 2 億美元。簡單計算一下，只要將其翻一番，就可能達到 4.26 億美元。但我猜，你們的一些緩解策略可能也會在今年內加強。那麼，有什麼可能性可以幫助我們思考，以目前的利率，到 2026 年，關稅的年化影響會是多少？

Yeah. We intentionally, Megan, steer away from that because of what you mentioned as you were asking the question. I mean, the team is working the mitigation. I mean, a lot of it is really coming down to resourcing components out of China, and so it's difficult to get at a run rate.

是的。梅根，我們有意避開這個問題，因為你在提問時提到了這一點。我的意思是，團隊正在努力採取緩解措施。我的意思是，很多事情實際上都歸結於從中國採購零件，因此很難達到運行速度。

Your math, the simple math works, but I would argue ignores the fact that we will have taken 30% of the China content out as we go through the course of '25. And so you have to annualize that. And then obviously, we're looking to accelerate and do more in '25. We don't have a number on that yet, but the team's off; we're working on it.

你的數學，簡單的數學是可行的，但我認為它忽略了一個事實，在 25 年的過程中，我們將去除 30% 的中國內容。所以你必須將其年度化。顯然，我們希望在 25 年加速發展並取得更多成績。我們還沒有確切的數字，但是球隊已經出發了；我們正在努力。

And then obviously, we have plans around '26 which would then make further reductions as we layer those resourcing opportunities and through the course of the year.

顯然，我們在 26 年左右制定了計劃，隨著我們分層分配這些資源機會並在整個一年中進一步削減開支。

So a lot of detailed math. I mean, to be honest with you, we're just spending our time trying to get our arms around the current year. As you can imagine, it's a highly complex environment. And as you've seen, just in the course of the last few days, it tends to change pretty rapidly. And so we're really focused on just understanding the current impact, where do we think that's going. And we'll have more to say as we get later in the year and have more clarity around tariffs, as well as the output from our sourcing initiatives.

因此有很多詳細的數學計算。我的意思是，老實說，我們只是在花時間嘗試了解今年的情況。你可以想像，這是一個高度複雜的環境。如您所見，僅在過去幾天裡，它就發生了相當迅速的變化。因此，我們真正關注的是了解當前的影響，以及我們認為它會產生什麼影響。隨著今年稍後關稅以及採購計劃的產出越來越清晰，我們將有更多消息要說。

I think the other thing to think about, Megan is the bulk of our tariff pressures coming from the increased, reciprocal, and [IEPA] tariffs on China. There's been discussion yesterday about potential relief from the autos because they have the same tariff stacking challenge we do. That's obviously a conversation we're having with the administration as well.

梅根，我認為需要考慮的另一件事是，我們的關稅壓力主要來自於對中國增加的、互惠的和[IEPA]關稅。昨天我們討論了汽車產業可能給予的減稅，因為汽車產業與我們一樣面臨關稅疊加的挑戰。這顯然也是我們與政府的對話。

And -- but of all the tariffs that are out there, I think the one that's likely to come under the most pressure is the 100%, but for us is a total of about 175% when you stack it all on China. Because that's creating a lot of pressure on the overall economy and the retail CEOs and the rest of the folks have been up in DC the last week or so and talking to the administration about what that's going to mean at retail level in places like Target, and Walmart, and Best Buy, and how that's going to impact the consumer. And so I think we'll see action on that probably ahead of many of the others. And that's the biggest impact for us.

但在所有的關稅中，我認為最有可能承受壓力的是 100%，但對我們來說，如果把所有關稅都加到中國身上，總壓力就達到 175% 左右。因為這給整體經濟帶來了很大壓力，零售業執行長和其他人士過去一周左右一直在華盛頓特區與政府討論這對塔吉特、沃爾瑪、百思買等零售業意味著什麼，以及這將如何影響消費者。因此我認為我們將會比其他許多人更早採取行動。這對我們來說影響最大。

And look, gal, I'll give the administration a lot of credit. I mean, Bob alluded to it. They -- we attended a dinner last week here in Minneapolis, and I had a chance to talk to the CFO of Target. Obviously, Brian Cornell, who runs Target, was up with Home Depot and Walmart.

瞧，姑娘，我對政府給了高度評價。我的意思是，鮑伯暗示了這一點。他們——我們上週在明尼阿波利斯參加了一次晚宴，我有機會與塔吉特的財務長進行了交談。顯然，經營塔吉特的布萊恩康奈爾 (Brian Cornell) 與家得寶 (Home Depot) 和沃爾瑪 (Walmart) 處於同一水平。

We were in Washington last week at the White House. We had the opportunity to sit down with the Director of the Economic Adviser to Trump.

上週我們在華盛頓的白宮。我們有機會與川普經濟顧問主任坐下來交談。

We're going to be talking to the Commerce Secretary this week. So they are asking a lot of questions to really understand how this is all embedded in the economy. And so things are developing fast and furious, and we're trying to stay close to it and make sure that we have a voice that they understand how it works.

本週我們將與商務部長進行會談。因此，他們提出了許多問題，以真正了解這一切是如何融入經濟的。事情發展得又快又猛，我們試著密切關注，確保我們的聲音能讓他們了解事情是如何運作的。

The nice part is we're able to draft somewhat with auto because it's a very similar operating model, and so we'll obviously have more to say. But I would steer you away from trying to just analyze what we've got in front of us because there are a lot of moving parts.

好的部分是，我們能夠使用自動方式進行起草，因為它是一種非常相似的操作模式，所以我們顯然有更多話要說。但我想勸你不要只分析我們面臨的問題，因為這涉及很多活動部件。

Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you. And as a follow, up I just wanted to ask about the balance sheet and liquidity. Bob, you did mention like even modeling downside scenarios, you don't anticipate any concerns with liquidity. I guess I'd just be curious whether those down-side scenarios that you're modeling would contemplate any additional actions to preserve cash, whether it be -- maybe cutting the dividend or taking actions to raise equity.

好的，這確實很有幫助。謝謝。接下來，我只想問一下資產負債表和流動性的問題。鮑勃，你確實提到過，即使模擬下行情景，你也不會預見任何流動性問題。我想我只是好奇，您所模擬的那些不利情景是否會考慮採取任何額外行動來保留現金，無論是削減股息還是採取行動來增加股權。

And I guess the reason I ask is even in a base-case scenario, I guess, assuming that just put that tariff impact into our model it does seem like leverage could be hitting six, seven times at some point this year.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為即使在基本情況下，假設將關稅影響納入我們的模型，那麼今年某個時候槓桿率似乎可能會達到六到七倍。

Obviously, a lot of assumptions have to go into that but. I would just be curious in the down-side scenarios; how you'd think about additional actions to preserve cash.

顯然，這需要很多假設，但是。我只是對不利的情況感到好奇；您會考慮採取什麼其他措施來節省現金。

Yeah, let me start, and then I'll flip it over to Bob. First and foremost, I mean, we've been a dividend payer for 29 years as a dividend aristocrat. That's important. This company has sustained that through a lot of challenging times. That said, liquidity is more important, and so that will factor in heavily in our calculus.

是的，讓我先開始，然後我會把它交給鮑伯。首先，我的意思是，作為股息貴族，我們已經支付股息 29 年了。這很重要。該公司在經歷了許多艱難時期後依然保持了這一狀態。話雖如此，流動性更為重要，因此它將在我們的計算中佔據重要地位。

We're early days, we're not going to jump to a decision. Like I said earlier, I mean, I was preparing for this call and saw the Wall Street Journal article pop across the screen that Trump was contemplating relief for the autos.

我們處於早期階段，不會倉促做出決定。就像我之前說的，我的意思是，我正在準備這通通話，看到《華爾街日報》的文章出現在螢幕上，說川普正在考慮為汽車產業提供救濟。

I would hate to make a -- the decision that takes away 29 years worth of history without having all the facts. So it is an item that is on the list. It's something that we will talk like we do with our Board at every Board meeting. But our immediate focus is going to be around things like working with our lending group to see what kind of flexibility we have around covenants. And we're doing everything we can to preserve liquidity. And trying to work to stave off those things that could take the liquidity away primarily around tariffs. Bob, anything you did?

我不願意在沒有掌握全部事實的情況下就做出抹去29年歷史的決定。因此它是清單上的一項。我們會像在每次董事會上與董事會討論一樣討論這個問題。但我們目前的重點是與我們的貸款團隊合作，看看我們在契約方面有什麼樣的彈性。我們正在盡一切努力保持流動性。並努力避免那些可能導致流動性流失的因素，主要是關稅。鮑勃，你做了什麼嗎？

Yeah. So at the end of the quarter, we had $1.1 billion available on our revolver plus another $300 million in cash. So effectively, $1.4 billion of available liquidity.

是的。因此，在本季末，我們有 11 億美元可用循環信貸額度，另外還有 3 億美元現金。因此實際上有 14 億美元的可用流動資金。

We have been making progress on working capital. We had good strong cash generation for the quarter. So we're very focused on that as a first level just because it's fairly immediate.

我們在營運資金方面取得了進展。本季我們的現金產生能力強勁。因此，我們非常重視這一點，因為它是第一級，而且相當直接。

CapEx, we're reviewing, as we said, we started the year with a plan of about $215 million, right now we're targeting about $200 million. I think there's more opportunity there as we continue to go through that. As Mike said, it's early innings here. So we're continuing to scrub that and make sure that we keep it focused on innovation and growth, but look to defer things that aren't critical for this year.

我們正在審查資本支出，正如我們所說，我們今年年初的計劃是 2.15 億美元左右，現在我們的目標是 2 億美元左右。我認為，隨著我們繼續經歷這個過程，將會有更多的機會。正如麥克所說，現在才剛開始。因此，我們將繼續審查這一點，並確保我們專注於創新和成長，但將推遲今年不重要的事情。

We've been focusing on unprofitable business lines. As you've seen, we discontinued production of the FTR. And timber sled as those were not profitable businesses for us, so wo wound those up. And we're just going to -- we'll continue to look at all the other options that are out there as Mike talked about. But we're also going to be conservative to not make any long-term decisions that that really deal with the short-term problem if we can avoid it.

我們一直專注於無利可圖的業務線。如您所見，我們已停止生產 FTR。而木材雪橇對我們來說並不是有利可圖的業務，所以我們就終止了這些業務。我們將繼續研究麥克談到的所有其他選擇。但如果可以避免的話，我們也會採取保守態度，不會做出任何真正解決短期問題的長期決策。

We do have a great bank group, it's been our bank group for many years. They've been supportive historically in these type of situations. They were extremely supportive of us during COVID. We've had a lot of discussions with them, they're aware of our projections as we look out through the year.

我們確實有一個很棒的銀行集團，它多年來一直是我們的銀行集團。從歷史上看，在這種情況下他們一直給予支持。在疫情期間，他們給予了我們極大的支持。我們與他們進行了很多討論，他們了解我們對全年的預測。

And so we'll continue to discuss with them as we need it. Covenant holidays, things like that, and likely an extension of the $400 million term loan that comes up in July. So we're actively looking at those issues and working through how we'll deal with them. But like I said, we have a very supportive bank group, and I don't foresee that being a problem.

因此，我們會根據需要繼續與他們進行討論。契約假期之類的事情，以及可能延長 7 月份的 4 億美元定期貸款。因此，我們正在積極研究這些問題並研究如何處理它們。但正如我所說，我們有一個非常支持的銀行集團，我預見到這不會是一個問題。

Okay, thanks, Mike and Bob.

好的，謝謝，麥克和鮑伯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alice Wycklendt, Baird.

愛麗絲·威克倫特，貝爾德。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks, gentlemen for all the helpful color on tariffs. Obviously, dealing with a lot, but maybe just switching gears. I want to just dig in on retail a little bit more. I mean, you talked about some pretty wild swings month to month in the quarter. Maybe share a little more detail on that, what you think is driving that, and is there any color you can share on what you've seen so far in April?

是的，早安。謝謝各位先生對關稅提供的協助。顯然，要處理很多事情，但也許只是換個話題。我只是想更深入地了解零售業。我的意思是，您談到了本季各個月份之間的一些相當劇烈的波動。也許您可以分享更多細節，您認為是什麼推動了這一進程，您能否分享一下您在四月迄今為止看到的情況？

Yeah, it's really tough to draw any conclusions. I mean, the problem is there was so much noise, weather wasn't great -- you had the fits and starts around tariffs, economic data.

是的，要得出任何結論確實很困難。我的意思是，問題在於噪音太大，天氣也不太好——關稅和經濟數據也時斷時續。

I think when we step back, it's -- I think it's going to be chalked up to a lot of the same attributes we've been speaking to in terms of persistently high [unemploy] -- inflation, interest rates obviously remaining high.

我認為，當我們退一步來看時，它會被歸咎於我們一直在談論的許多相同因素，例如持續的高失業率、通貨膨脹、利率明顯居高不下。

But I think what's getting added to that is the uncertainty index has gone through the roof, and you can see that showing up in things like the consumer confidence index, which is now, I think, at a 12- or a 14-year low. I think people are just nervous and they're seeing -- there's a good portion of our customer base that is invested in the stock market, 401Ks, et cetera.

但我認為，加劇這種情況的原因是不確定性指數已經飆升，你可以從消費者信心指數等方面看到這一點，我認為現在消費者信心指數處於 12 年或 14 年來的最低點。我認為人們只是感到緊張，他們看到——我們很大一部分的客戶群都投資於股票市場、401K 等等。

And they're seeing these wild swings. And when they look at products like ours, of which about 40% are highly discretionary. Things like razors, snowmobiles -- spending a lot of money when you're worried about the -- could there be higher inflation in the economy? Is there a risk to your job? I think those things are all playing in and we're seeing that volatility.

他們看到了這些劇烈的波動。當他們看到像我們這樣的產品時，其中約 40% 是高度可自由支配的。刮鬍刀、雪地摩托車等物品——當你擔心經濟通膨率會上升時，你會花很多錢嗎？你的工作有風險嗎？我認為這些因素都在發揮作用，我們看到了這種波動。

I would tell you, April really, we haven't seen anything much different than what we saw in March. The good news is we haven't seen it get significantly weak relative to where we were expecting. But at the same time, we were hoping to start to see some positive green shoots. And I think just the overhang created from tariffs as well as just the uncertainty that that drives into the broader economic equation is probably causing a fair amount of consumer reluctance to spend on very large items, purchase items.

我想告訴你，實際上，四月我們看到的情況與三月並沒有太大的不同。好消息是，我們並沒有看到它相對於我們預期的明顯減弱。但同時，我們希望開始看到一些正面的跡象。我認為，關稅造成的負擔以及由此給更廣泛的經濟方程式帶來的不確定性，很可能會導致相當多的消費者不願意購買大件物品。

You know, Mike talked about promo, and obviously, we've seen promo in the market to move use or older units, and prior model year units with some of the Japanese as they look to clean up that inventory. But the other piece of promo that's come in has been a fair amount of interest rate buy down, and that has been relatively effective in getting retail moving. I think all the manufacturers put more interest rate promo in the market in March, and that sort of turned the tide a bit from February. We continue to see that in April.

你知道，麥克談到了促銷，顯然，我們已經看到市場上有促銷活動，以轉移使用過的或較舊的單位，以及一些日本人想要清理庫存的前幾年的車型。但另一項促銷​​措施是相當數量的利率下調，這對推動零售業發展相對有效。我認為所有製造商在三月都向市場推出了更多利率促銷，這在某種程度上扭轉了二月的情況。四月我們繼續看到這種情況。

So what that shows is that part of the consumer reluctance to buy is driven by interest rates. And I think now people are pretty convinced that we're not going to see interest rates come down in the near term. So that type of promo has been effective. Unfortunately, it's kind of expensive.

這顯示消費者不願意購買的部分原因是利率。我認為現在人們非常確信短期內利率不會下降。所以這種促銷方式是有效的。不幸的是，它有點貴。

Yeah, well, that's helpful color, thank you. Then just on the warranty side, sounds like great improvement there. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces. But as you look out over the next year, or maybe even just -- if you think about a more normalized environment, what type of impact could that have on your margin?

是的，這很有幫助，謝謝。那麼僅從保固方面來看，聽起來已經有了很大的改進。顯然，有很多活動部件。但是，展望未來一年，或甚至只是——如果您考慮一個更正常化的環境，這會對您的利潤產生什麼樣的影響？

I look, I think the bottom line is it's going to be a tailwind. It's not going to move as fast as we would like because you still are dealing with older product that was manufactured under different standards than what we've got in place today in terms of design and lean principles. So it will help us improve margins. I don't know that it's going to be the largest adder. I think all the work that Mark and team are doing around lean and factory efficiency, coupled with the work we're doing around sourcing, are going to be the primary drivers.

我認為，最重要的是它將成為順風。它不會像我們希望的那樣快速發展，因為你仍然在處理舊產品，這些產品是根據與我們今天在設計和精益原則方面所採用的標準不同的標準製造的。因此它將幫助我們提高利潤率。我不知道它是否會成為最大的加法器。我認為馬克和團隊在精實和工廠效率方面所做的所有工作，加上我們在採購方面所做的工作將成為主要驅動力。

More important is it's a huge driver of customer satisfaction. We heard that played back in spades from our dealer council. They're seeing it show up. And many years ago, we were probably rated at the bottom of the pack, and now we're being told by dealers that we're top tier, if not top in this regard. And we want a great customer experience so we need to do it for the right reasons and it will have a secondary benefit of benefiting the margins.

更重要的是，它是客戶滿意度的巨大推動力。我們從經銷商委員會那裡聽到了對此的強烈反應。他們看到它的出現。很多年前，我們可能被評為墊底的，而現在經銷商告訴我們，在這方面我們即使不是最好的，也是頂級的。我們希望提供出色的客戶體驗，因此我們需要出於正確的理由來做這件事，這樣還能帶來增加利潤的附帶好處。

Thanks, that's it for me. Thank you.

謝謝，對我來說就這樣了。謝謝。

Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場 (KeyBanc Capital Markets) 的 Noah Zatzkin。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I guess, first, I think you mentioned you're kind of thinking about retail down modestly this year. So wondering how you're planning shipment levels and relatedly, what you're targeting for inventory levels to end the year? Thanks.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我想，首先，我認為您提到過，您認為今年零售業將略有下滑。所以想知道您如何規劃裝運水準以及相關地，您計劃在年底達到什麼樣的庫存水準？謝謝。

Yeah. So we're planning to ship lower than retail to continue to bring dealer inventory down. I would say right now, our targets are for ORV to be down mid- to high-single digits. Motorcycles to be down low-single digits and marine to be down mid- to high-single digits to low-double digits depending on how their season goes.

是的。因此，我們計劃以低於零售價的價格出貨，以繼續降低經銷商的庫存。我想說的是，現在我們的目標是讓 ORV 降到中高個位數。摩托車的銷量將下降低個位數，船舶的銷量將下降中高個位數至低兩位數，具體取決於季節的進展。

But obviously, it's a moving target depending on what we see as future retail strength. I mean, if the back half of the year were stronger than what we're thinking, we'd probably bring dealer inventory down less. And obviously, the reverse is true; bring it down more.

但顯然，這是一個不斷變化的目標，取決於我們對未來零售實力的看法。我的意思是，如果今年下半年的業績比我們想像的要強勁，我們可能會減少經銷商的庫存。顯然，反之亦然；將其進一步降低。

We're committed. Mike and I have been out with dealers a lot, as we talked about during the earlier part of the call. And the feedback's been really positive. Dealers feel like we've done a great job of getting dealer inventory in line with where it needs to be, get their -- they feel good about where their profiles are.

我們決心如此。正如我們在通話早些時候所討論的那樣，麥克和我經常與經銷商一起出去。並且反饋非常積極。經銷商覺得我們在使經銷商庫存符合其需求方面做得很好，他們對自己的庫存狀況感到滿意。

It was much less of a discussion in our meetings than it had been the last six months. So that tells me we're pretty close to the mark. But we're committed to keeping it there, and so we'll continue to adjust as this year plays out.

與過去六個月相比，我們在會議上討論這個問題的次數少了很多。所以這表示我們已經非常接近目標了。但我們致力於保持這一水平，因此我們將在今年繼續進行調整。

And I mean, look, I'll reiterate. There's a reason we withdrew our guidance. It was two things. One is trying to get our arms around where tariffs are headed and things could change by the time we get off this call. The second is the top line of the business, and that's going to have a direct correlation to what ends up happening with tariffs.

我的意思是，看，我會重申這一點。我們撤回指導是有原因的。這是兩件事。一方面，我們試圖了解關稅的走向，但當我們掛斷電話時，情況可能會改變。第二個是業務的營收，這將與關稅的最終結果直接相關。

And so at the end of the day, the commitment we have with our dealers is if we see retail softening further from what we expect, we're going to be making adjustments to shipments.

因此，最終，我們對經銷商的承諾是，如果我們發現零售量比我們預期的進一步疲軟，我們將對出貨量進行調整。

And so I think that the key for you all is to just know that the progress we've made with the dealer network, the shipment levels, or the dealer inventory levels that they have recognized. And we need to make sure that we protect them in volatile times. And if we see things get worse, then we're obviously going to take the right action. If things improve with greater clarity around tariffs, we'll obviously be able to ramp our factories and support improved retail.

因此，我認為大家最關心的就是了解我們在經銷商網路、出貨量水準或經銷商庫存水準方面取得的進展。我們需要確保在動盪時期保護他們。如果我們看到情況變得更糟，那麼我們顯然會採取正確的行動。如果關稅問題進一步改善和明確，我們顯然將能夠擴大工廠規模並支持零售業的改善。

Really helpful. Maybe just one more. You mentioned implementing the recession playbook and maybe some of this is obvious. But just hoping you could kind of help put a finer point on some of the ways that differs from normal operations, and how quickly you'd be able to kind of pivot back toward normal operations if circumstances were to change. Thanks.

真的很有幫助。也許只剩下一個了。您提到了實施經濟衰退策略，也許其中一些是顯而易見的。但我只是希望您能幫助更詳細地說明一些與正常營運不同的方式，以及如果情況發生變化，您能夠多快恢復正常運作。謝謝。

Yeah. I mean, obviously, when you're in the challenging time, the first thing you focus on is cash and liquidity. And so that gets to working capital and CapEx. We've been working capital. We were being pretty aggressive on anyway, so that's not a huge change. We needed to improve our working capital performance coming out of COVID, and a lot of things got built up. There was a lot of stuff in the system, and I think we've made really good strides in that. Mark and his team, the -- one of the disappointing things with all this noise in the environment is that what you're not seeing is the great work of the operations team and what they've been able to do around the efficiency of our plants, attainment of our build schedules. And that allows us to better align working capital. So we'll continue to make progress there. We focus on CapEx, and making sure we're only spending money where we absolutely need to.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，當你處於充滿挑戰的時期時，你首先關注的是現金和流動性。這樣就牽涉到營運資金和資本支出。我們一直在營運資金。無論如何，我們都表現得相當積極，所以這並不是一個巨大的變化。我們需要提高 COVID 疫情後的營運資本績效，並且做了很多事情。系統中有很多東西，我認為我們在這方面取得了很大的進步。馬克和他的團隊——環境中所有這些噪音令人失望的事情之一是，你沒​​有看到營運團隊的出色工作以及他們在提高工廠效率、實現我們的建設計劃方面所做的努力。這使我們能夠更好地協調營運資金。因此，我們將繼續在那裡取得進展。我們專注於資本支出，並確保我們只在絕對需要的地方花錢。

We deferred a couple of projects that can go into next year; we'll continue to look to do that. On the operation side, last year, as I said, we had about a 10% salary head count reduction. We've been very disciplined about adding backfills, not adding people after that reduction. But we've been disciplined about backfills. We've been kind of targeting 50% backfill levels last year, and we're continuing to look at that this year.

我們推遲了幾個可以到明年進行的項目；我們將繼續努力做到這一點。在營運方面，正如我所說，去年我們的員工薪資減少了約 10%。我們一直非常嚴格地增加補充人員，而不是在裁員後再增加人員。但我們對於回填一直很嚴格。去年，我們的目標回填率約為 50%，今年我們將繼續朝著這個目標努力。

So prudently managing headcount. And then looking at investments on the innovation side. But as Mike said, we're not going to cut things now in the short term that will help us continue to drive market leadership in the long term.

因此要謹慎地管理員工人數。然後再看看創新方面的投資。但正如麥克所說，我們不會在短期內削減開支，這將有助於我們在長期內繼續保持市場領先地位。

We're in a really good place from a product standpoint. We've got products out there that our competitors don't have. We've got some of the most current product portfolio in the in the industry, and we're not going to -- we had lost that kind of innovation edge several years ago. And I think we've done a nice job of getting it back. And we're not going to back off of that.

從產品角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位。我們擁有競爭對手所沒有的產品。我們擁有業界最新的產品組合，我們不會——幾年前我們就失去了這種創新優勢。我認為我們已經很好地恢復了它。我們不會退縮。

So none of the things we're doing are things we can't reverse fairly quickly. It's really just like you would do in your own personal budget, right? Being prudent in challenging times.

因此，我們所做的事情都能夠很快地逆轉。這真的就像您在自己的個人預算中所做的那樣，對嗎？在充滿挑戰的時期保持謹慎。

Very helpful. Thanks.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Alex Perry, Bank of America.

美國銀行的亞歷克斯·佩里。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions here. I guess, first, just another follow up on tariffs. It looks like through mitigation actions and deferrals there could be a $55 million offset to tariffs this year at current rates, sort of at the midpoint of your tariff guide. Is there a chance that the offset could go higher and what would drive that? Or is it that the supply shifts take a lot of time, which, seemed to be the primary mitigating factor and these have pretty long lead times. But how sort of sticky is that offset number that that you provided? Thanks.

你好，謝謝你在這裡回答我的問題。我想，首先，這只是對關稅的另一個跟進。看起來，透過緩解措施和延期，以現行稅率計算，今年的關稅可以抵消 5500 萬美元，這大約是關稅指南的中間值。偏移量是否有可能進一步增加？其原因是什麼？或者是供應轉移需要花費大量時間，這似乎是主要的緩解因素，而且這些轉移的交貨時間相當長。但是您提供的偏移量數字有多大？謝謝。

Yeah, I think it's that's -- as we talked about, it's difficult to give. You don't want to take the guidance and assume that that translates into a full-year run rate.

是的，我認為就是這樣——正如我們所討論的，這很難給予。您不想接受指導並假設其會轉化為全年的運行率。

We did take -- or we have a plan to take 30% of our China sourcing out this year. That's a plan to take it out this year, so there'll be -- some of that inventory that's tariff would, if the tariffs stay in place, would carry over into ‘26. Some of it you'd be able to enact sooner, so it's just going to depend when it happens in the year. We're looking at options to go faster than that and make more progress before the end of the year.

我們確實——或者說我們計劃今年將 30% 的採購轉移到中國。這是今年取消的計劃，因此，如果關稅保持不變，部分庫存的關稅將延續到 2026 年。其中一些你可以更早頒布，所以這只取決於它在一年中的什麼時候發生。我們正在尋找更快的方案，並在年底之前取得更多進展。

As Mike talked about, there's a little bit of drag from non-USMCA stuff that we bring up from our plant and other suppliers in Mexico. We're working on correcting that to make sure we can reduce that tariff. And then obviously, there's the -- what happens with the all the other countries.

正如麥克所說，我們從墨西哥的工廠和其他供應商進口的非 USMCA 產品帶來了一些阻力。我們正在努力糾正這一問題，以確保能夠降低關稅。顯然，其他國家也會出現類似的情況。

And then there's the deferral, which is part of what you're seeing and the impact of full year versus what's going to actually hit the financials. And about 20% of that of what we buy this year will get deferred into next year. So with all of those things plus what's happening in terms of the discussions with the administration, and what they're going to do, it's just very hard to really forecast a full-year run rate right now.

然後還有延期，這是您所看到的一部分，也是全年的影響與實際對財務的影響。我們今年購買的商品中約有 20% 將延後到明年。因此，考慮到所有這些因素，再加上與政府的討論情況以及他們將採取的措施，現在很難真正預測全年的運作率。

Perfect, really helpful. And then my follow up is I guess, higher level. If you look at the three segments, which segments has your view changed the most in terms of top line versus the prior expectations when you provided 1Q segment guide? Are there any areas where maybe you feel a bit better than when you got it last quarter versus somewhere you think maybe more pressured? Thanks.

非常完美，非常有幫助。然後我想，我的後續行動是更高層次的。如果您看這三個部分，那麼在提供第一季部分指南時，與先前的預期相比，您對哪些部分的收入看法發生了最大變化？與上個季度相比，您是否在某些方面感覺好一些，而在某些方面您認為壓力可能更大？謝謝。

Yeah, tough to answer. Nothing stands out relative to each other. And I think for the most part, our retail guide is not too dramatically different than what we were thinking. And I think it's early days. I think there's a lot that has to get sorted out from a broader economic perspective before we're going to have a good view as to what the trajectory is likely to be.

是的，很難回答。彼此之間沒有什麼突出之處。我認為，在大多數情況下，我們的零售指南與我們的想法並沒有太大的差別。我認為現在還為時過早。我認為，在我們能夠很好地了解未來的發展軌跡之前，還有很多問題需要從更廣泛的經濟角度進行理清。

You know, as Mike said earlier, we saw a lot of choppiness in the quarter. And so it's really difficult to take that data and come up with what a trend is. And that's been really true, I would say, the last five quarters where it's -- the months tend to be somewhat dramatically different. Some of it weather driven, some of it just economic news driven. And so a little bit tough to say, but like Mike, I don't see anything that's dramatic at any particular product, I would say. Good retail, been tough industry, but good retail and heavyweight motorcycles.

你知道，正如麥克之前所說，我們在本季看到了很多波動。因此，要取得這些數據並得出趨勢確實非常困難。我想說，這是事實，過去五個季度的情況確實如此——每個月的情況往往有很大不同。有些是受天氣影響，有些只是受經濟新聞影響。所以這有點難說，但就像麥克一樣，我想說，我沒有看到任何特定產品有什麼特別之處。零售業不錯，一直是艱難的行業，但零售業不錯，摩托車也很重。

We took a bunch of share in the in the quarter. It's good to see those new products performing well. We've invested teams done a nice job of building that portfolio over the last few years, and so it's good to see that that start to pay off again.

我們在本季度佔據了大量的份額。很高興看到這些新產品表現良好。過去幾年，我們投資的團隊在建立投資組合方面做得很好，因此很高興看到這些工作再次開始獲得回報。

Perfect, that's very helpful. Best of luck going forward.

非常好，非常有幫助。祝你未來好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tristan Thomas Martin, BMO Capital Markets.

特里斯坦·托馬斯·馬丁 (Tristan Thomas Martin)，BMO 資本市場。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Question, the alternative non-Chinese sourcing, if we were to kind of remove tariffs and look at on a like-for-like basis, how does that compare price wise to sourcing that product comparable product to China versus somewhere else in the world?

問題是，如果我們取消關稅並以同類產品為基礎進行考察，那麼對於非中國採購的替代產品，與從中國採購的產品相比，從世界其他地方採購的產品價格如何？

Yeah, we're not going to get into that level of detail. I mean, the reality is there's probably a top 20 or 30 supplier list. And the answer to that question is different for each and every one of them.

是的，我們不會深入到那個細節層次。我的意思是，現實情況是可能有一份排名前 20 或 30 的供應商名單。而每個人對這個問題的答案都是不同的。

Obviously, getting greater clarity on where the Chinese tariff ultimately is going to end is going to be important to this discussion. There are some areas that were already underway that were obviously beneficial at the old tariff regime.

顯然，更清楚地了解中國關稅最終將在何時結束對於本次討論至關重要。一些已在進行的領域在舊關稅制度下顯然是有利的。

I'm -- we're not banking on it going back to the old level of 25%. But those areas are being aggressively prioritized and worked and then when the when the tariff situation settles down, and we know what we're contending with, that'll help us with where we draw the line and work it from there. I think the point I would make is this isn't just as easy as finding a new supplier. I mean, in many instances, we have to cultivate a new supplier. And in many instances we have to go through a re-qualification or retesting of the components.

我——我們不指望它會回到原來的 25% 的水平。但這些領域正在被積極地優先考慮和開展工作，然後當關稅情況穩定下來時，我們知道我們在應對什麼，這將有助於我們劃定界限並從那裡開始工作。我想我要說的是，這並不像找到新的供應商那麼簡單。我的意思是，在很多情況下，我們必須培養新的供應商。在很多情況下，我們必須對組件進行重新鑑定或重新測試。

Many of these components are in critical areas like wheels, tires, engine components, electrical components. And so the switching cost of this is not to be taken lightly, but at the current tariff regime, it would say we've got to get everything out, and you'll be able to find an alternative supply.

許多這些部件都位於車輪、輪胎、引擎部件、電氣部件等關鍵部位。因此，這種轉換成本不容小覷，但在目前的關稅制度下，我們必須把所有東西都拿出來，然後才能找到替代供應。

I think the reality of when this settles out, there'll still be some level that will make economic sense. But it's early days and too soon to get any more specific around numbers.

我認為，當現實情況穩定下來後，仍會存在一些具有經濟意義的水平。但現在還為時過早，無法獲得更具體的數字。

Okay, and then just really quick. Have you noticed any changes in utility or the demand given China has paused ordering of US agricultural products? Thanks.

好的，然後就很快了。鑑於中國暫停訂購美國農產品，您是否注意到效用或需求有任何變化？謝謝。

Nothing substantial.

沒什麼實質的。

Yeah, I would say, anything that would be called a trend. Like Mike said earlier, the premium products have performed really really well, which is good for us because we're strong in that end of the segment, and the non-premium stuff's been a little bit slower. But it's not any kind of dramatic change from what we've been seeing.

是的，我想說，任何可以被稱為趨勢的東西。就像麥克之前說的，高端產品的表現確實非常好，這對我們來說是件好事，因為我們在這一領域表現強勁，而非高端產品的表現則稍慢一些。但與我們所見的情況相比，這並不是什麼巨大的改變。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

Hey, good morning, thanks for taking my call. So if you think about the withdrawn guidance. I mean, you had $1.10 previously, you've given us a tariff estimate. So $225 million is about $3 in earnings. So that math seems pretty straightforward and I can appreciate that that is a moving target. But I guess I'm curious about the $1.10, right?

嘿，早上好，感謝您接聽我的電話。所以如果你考慮一下撤回的指導。我的意思是，您之前給了我們 1.10 美元的關稅估算。因此 2.25 億美元大約相當於 3 美元的收益。所以這個數學問題看起來很簡單，而且我可以理解這是一個移動的目標。但我想我對 1.10 美元感到好奇，對嗎？

The pre-tariff or ex-tariff number. It sounds like were we not to be factoring in the explicit tariff impact that that number would be coming down? But maybe give us an idea of how we should be sort of thinking about the ex-tariff number going forward. And again, I can appreciate all the uncertainty, but like it -- would that be coming down meaningfully here? And I guess -- well, I'll ask my follow up in a second.

關稅前或關稅外的編號。聽起來如果我們不考慮明確的關稅影響，這個數字就會下降？但也許可以讓我們了解一下我們應該如何考慮未來的非關稅數字。再說一次，我可以理解所有的不確定性，但就像它一樣——這裡有意義嗎？我想——好吧，我馬上就會問後續問題。

Yeah, I mean, James, you're asking me to provide guidance around our withdrawal of guidance and we're not going to do that. And the reason I can't give you that is because they're interrelated, right? If the tariffs remain at the level they are, my opinion -- my opinion alone is that I think that has an economic impact and I think consumer spending will slow even further, and so you can't look at them independently.

是的，我的意思是，詹姆斯，你要求我就我們撤回指導提供指導，但我們不會這樣做。我無法告訴你答案的原因是它們是相互關聯的，對嗎？如果關稅保持在先前的水平，我的觀點——我個人的觀點是，我認為這將產生經濟影響，我認為消費者支出將進一步放緩，因此你不能孤立地看待它們。

And you know at this stage, it's too early. I mean this stuff is developing every single day. We know firsthand from having been in Washington as well as spending time with Representatives and Senators from each of the key districts that we have manufacturing that these discussions are rapidly evolving. And so putting a pin in this, I mean that's why we, and I think, a lot of others that already have and will, withdrew guidance. Right now, my focus is not trying to use a crystal ball to get where this thing's going; it's to deal with the here and now. It's why we're working so hard on the sourcing side of this equation because we know that it takes time, as well as spending our time making sure that our representatives who have been very willing and very open to talk with us, listen to us, dialogue with us, that we continue to keep those efforts up. So what I would remind everybody is if you look back two or three years ago, some of the basic operations of this company we were struggling, that isn't the case anymore.

你知道，目前還為時過早。我的意思是這些事情每天都在發展。我們親身經歷過華盛頓的情況，也與我們參與製造的每個主要選區的眾議員和參議員相處過，因此了解到這些討論正在迅速發展。因此，我認為這就是為什麼我們以及許多其他人已經和將要撤回指導的原因。現在，我的重點不是試圖用水晶球來預測事情的發展方向；這是為了處理當前的事情。這就是為什麼我們在採購方面如此努力，因為我們知道這需要時間，同時還要花時間確保我們的代表非常願意並且非常開放地與我們交談、傾聽我們、與我們對話，我們將繼續保持這些努力。因此，我想提醒大家的是，如果回顧兩三年前，我們公司的一些基本營運還在苦苦掙扎，但現在情況已經不再如此了。

Basic operations are in a great spot. Innovation's in a great spot. We've done a lot to get the liquidity and balance sheet of this company in a good spot. So we're in a good position to weather a near-term storm, and that's what we're really focused on, is making sure that we navigate this in a very thoughtful manner.

基本操作非常順利。創新處於良好狀態。我們做了很多工作來使該公司的流動性和資產負債表處於良好狀態。因此，我們有能力安然度過近期的風暴，而這才是我們真正關注的，確保我們以非常周到的方式應對這一問題。

That's totally fair. And maybe as I think about offsets, just from a near term perspective. One of the things that I think is difficult for us to model is the incentive comp piece, right? So that was a big tailwind last year. You talked about it being north of $1 of a headwind initially this year. Help us understand incentive comp based on some of these various scenarios.

這完全公平。也許當我考慮補償時，只是從短期角度來考慮。我認為我們很難建模的事情之一是激勵補償部分，對嗎？所以這是去年的一個巨大順風。您談到了今年年初逆風超過 1 美元的情況。幫助我們根據這些不同的場景來理解激勵補償。

Does that $1-plus then swing back into your favor? And then as we try to put together numbers for next year, right? And obviously there are a million unknowns as we think about next year. But does that then become another headwind for next year? And I guess another way of asking the question of like -- is it just based on your initial guide, no matter how low that is or longer term? How should we think about that incentive comp piece if this tariff situation proves to be a longer term issue?

那麼這 1 美元多的收益是否會重新對你有利呢？然後我們嘗試匯總明年的數字，對嗎？顯然，當我們考慮明年時，有無數個未知數。但這是否會成為明年的另一個不利因素？我想問的另一種方式是——它是否僅僅基於你的初始指南，無論它有多低或有多長？如果這種關稅情況被證明是一個長期問題，我們應該如何看待激勵補償？

Yeah. I mean, look, it's a discussion that we have with our compensation committee every quarter in terms of the underlying performance of the company.

是的。我的意思是，我們每季都會與薪酬委員會就公司的基本業績進行討論。

What I would tell you though is that the vast majority of that, I don't refer to it as incentive comp, it's profit share. And it's an important part of the compensation package for employees. And as we've talked about that, compensation goes all the way down to the factory floor. Not completely in every facility, but in most.

不過我想告訴你的是，其中絕大部分，我不稱之為激勵補償，而是利潤分成。這是員工薪資待遇的重要一環。正如我們所討論的，薪水一直延伸到工廠車間。雖然不是每個設施都完全如此，但大多數設施都是如此。

And you know we've got employees that are working incredibly hard right now and everything that we are contending with is outside their control. So would not be my desire to impact that number negatively, but you know, that isn't just my call. I've got to have that discussion with the Board. And again, we're more focused on trying to make sure the environment we're working in is managed and contend with the challenges right in front of us and those types of decisions will be made on down the road.

你知道，我們的員工現在工作非常努力，我們所面臨的一切都超出了他們的控制範圍。因此，我並不想對這個數字產生負面影響，但你知道，這不僅僅是我的決定。我必須與董事會進行討論。再次強調，我們更加重視確保我們的工作環境得到管理，並應對我們面臨的挑戰，而這些類型的決定將在未來做出。

Totally fair. Thanks.

完全公平。謝謝。

Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

Sabahat Khan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Hey, good morning. This is [Arthur On] for Saba. Just wanted to touch on retail sales quickly. Within or the utility was down more meaningfully than it has been in recent quarters, is there anything you would call out across the customer base here given this has historically been a more resilient business line?

嘿，早安。我是薩巴的 [Arthur On]。只是想快速談談零售銷售。如果公用事業的下降幅度比最近幾季更大，考慮到這在歷史上一直是一條更具彈性的業務線，您是否會對整個客戶群提出什麼要求？

Yeah, I mean, if you look at utility, I would say it was -- if not for February, it would have been relatively flat. February was a bit of an anomaly. There was a lot of new promo came in the market. Weather was bad in a lot of key states where you typically have good performance for utility.

是的，我的意思是，如果你看一下效用，我會說它是 - 如果不是二月份，它會相對平穩。二月有點異常。市場上出現了許多新的促銷活動。在許多通常公用事業表現良好的關鍵州，天氣都很糟糕。

Trend seems to be more normalized as we get into April and the weakness was more pronounced in ATCV. As Mike said earlier, premium Ranger continued and the XPEDITION continued to perform really well. So a little bit of -- a little bit more down than it had been, but I don't think necessarily a trend. And it did feel like a one-month anomaly.

進入四月，趨勢似乎更加正常化，ATCV 的疲軟態勢更加明顯。正如 Mike 之前所說，高階 Ranger 仍在繼續，XPEDITION 的表現也十分出色。因此，比以前下降了一點點，但我認為這不一定是一種趨勢。這確實感覺像是一個月的異常現象。

Well, you also have to think through the comps. Q1 of last year for RV was still pretty strong, we were up 3%, and then the subsequent quarters, we were down. So you're lagging probably the last strong comp that we really had.

嗯，你還必須仔細考慮一下比較情況。RV 去年第一季的表現仍然相當強勁，成長了 3%，但隨後幾個季度，業績開始下滑。所以，你可能落後於我們真正擁有的最後一家強大的公司。

Okay, that's helpful. And then you mentioned that Japanese OEMs are continuing to be aggressive on promotions. Has this dynamic changed at all in the past few months here especially with the yen strengthening more recently, or do you still expect this, I guess, to be a factor for the foreseeable future going forward?

好的，這很有幫助。然後您提到日本原始設備製造商正在繼續積極進行促銷活動。在過去幾個月裡，這種動態是否有所變化，特別是最近日圓走強，或者您仍然預計這將成為可預見的未來的因素？

Hasn't changed. I think the only thing that's going to change it is if their inventory practices improve.

沒有變化。我認為唯一能改變這一現狀的就是他們的庫存管理方法得到改善。

Yeah, I mean, there -- for two of the three Japanese, their inventory levels have come down, but they're still meaningfully higher than the rest of the industry. So I would say we've seen a little bit of progress, but not enough to tell us that this dynamic is going to change in Q2.

是的，我的意思是，對於三家日本公司中的兩家來說，他們的庫存水準已經下降，但仍然明顯高於業內其他公司。所以我想說我們已經看到了一點進展，但還不足以告訴我們這種動態將在第二季發生變化。

Okay. That's all for me. Thank you.

好的。對我來說就這些了。謝謝。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question and answer session and conclude the Polaris conference call. We thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節和北極星電話會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，現在您可以斷開連接了。