Polaris Inc (PII) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Polaris Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. J.C. Weigelt. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Polaris 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給 J.C. Weigelt 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chuck, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. I'm J.C. Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations at Polaris. Thank you for joining us for our 2024 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. We will reference a slide presentation today, which is accessible on our website at ir.polaris.com. Joining me on the call today are Mike Speetzen, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Mack, our Chief Financial Officer. Both have the prepared remarks summarizing 2024 fourth quarter and full year as well as our expectations for 2025. Then we'll take your questions.

謝謝你，查克，大家早安或下午好。我是 J.C. Weigelt，Polaris 投資者關係副總裁。感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天我們將參考幻燈片演示，您可以在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上存取該演示文稿。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Mike Speetzen；和我們的財務長鮑伯·麥克。兩人都準備好了總結 2024 年第四季和全年的講話，以及我們對 2025 年的預期。然後我們將回答您的問題。

During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward-looking for the purpose of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2023 10-K for additional details regarding risks and uncertainties. All references to the 2024 fourth quarter and full year actual results and 2025 guidance are for our continuing operations and are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis, unless otherwise noted.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論各種主題，就 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》而言，這些主題應被視為具有前瞻性。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。您可以參閱我們的 2023 10-K，以了解有關風險和不確定性的更多詳細資訊。除非另有說明，所有提及2024 年第四季度和全年實際業績以及2025 年指導的內容均適用於我們的持續經營業務，並按調整後的非公認會計準則(non-GAAP) 基礎進行報告。

Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of the presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments. Now I will turn the call over to Mike Speetzen. Go ahead, Mike.

請參閱簡報末尾的 Reg G 調整表，以了解 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整。現在我將把電話轉給 Mike Speetzen。繼續吧，麥克。

Michael Speetzen CEO & Director

邁克爾·斯佩岑 執行長兼董事

Thanks, J.C., and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before we discuss our Q4 results and our expectations for 2025, I'd like to begin today's call by reflecting on the past year and our key focus areas.

謝謝，J.C.，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。在我們討論第四季度業績和對 2025 年的預期之前，我想透過回顧過去的一年和我們的重點領域來開始今天的電話會議。

2024 presented significant challenges across the powersports industry, leading to a prolonged down cycle, driven by various factors affecting OEMs, dealers and consumers. As Polaris navigated these challenges last year, I'm proud of how our team executed and stayed focused on the areas we could control. They maintain strong relationships with our dealers, launched innovation to consumers and enhanced our operational capabilities and efficiencies. Our goal remains to position Polaris to emerge from this down cycle even stronger.

2024 年，整個動力運動產業面臨重大挑戰，在影響原始設備製造商、經銷商和消費者的各種因素的推動下，導致了長期的下行週期。當北極星去年應對這些挑戰時，我對我們的團隊如何執行並專注於我們可以控制的領域感到自豪。他們與我們的經銷商保持牢固的關係，向消費者推出創新，並提高我們的營運能力和效率。我們的目標仍然是讓北極星在這個下行週期中變得更強大。

We concluded 2024 with a robust portfolio of new product innovations, including the new Indian Motorcycle Scout lineup, RZR Pro lineup, quality improvements in RANGER and new boats from Bennington and Hurricane. This commitment to innovation is unwavering as we continue to lead the industry, investing over 4% of sales into R&D. You've seen us ramp up our innovation productivity over the past couple of years with category-defining vehicles and enhanced vehicle capabilities and comfort, and we expect these trends to continue.

我們以強大的新產品創新組合結束了 2024 年，其中包括新的 Indian Motorcycle Scout 系列、RZR Pro 系列、RANGER 的品質改進以及 Bennington 和 Hurricane 的新船。我們對創新的承諾堅定不移，我們將超過 4% 的銷售額投資於研發，繼續引領業界。您已經看到我們在過去幾年中透過定義類別的車輛以及增強的車輛功能和舒適性來提高創新生產力，我們預計這些趨勢將持續下去。

Some of this innovation was showcased with championship race wins and RZR, snow and Indian Motorcycles. This includes our RZR factory racing team's recent first place finish at Dakar earlier this month in the side-by-side class. This is the second year in a row that our vehicle has outmaneuvered and outpace everyone else in the field and walked away with the top spot on the podium. Our lean journey is in full swing with over $200 million in structural savings realized last year and additional opportunities identified for 2025 and beyond.

其中一些創新透過冠軍賽的勝利以及 RZR、雪地和印第安摩托車得以展示。這包括我們的 RZR 工廠賽車隊最近在本月早些時候的達卡並列組別中獲得第一名。這是我們的車輛連續第二年以機動性和速度超越了現場的其他所有人，並登上了領獎台。我們的精實之旅正在全面展開，去年實現了超過 2 億美元的結構性節省，並為 2025 年及以後確定了更多機會。

I understand it's difficult to visualize the current impacts on margins given the negative absorption we're experiencing, given reduced shipments, but we are making real changes that should be reflected in our stronger incremental margins going forward. and help us achieve our long-term target of mid- to high teens EBITDA margin. 2024 was hard for everyone in the industry. our dealers included. At our dealer meeting last summer, we committed to our dealers to have our -- that they have our support in both good and challenging times. We executed on that commitment by reducing dealer inventory while also providing additional flowing support to help them navigate these challenging market conditions.

我知道，鑑於我們正在經歷的負面吸收和出貨量的減少，很難想像當前對利潤率的影響，但我們正在做出真正的改變，這些改變應該反映在我們未來更強勁的增量利潤率中。幫助我們實現中高 EBITDA 利潤率的長期目標。 2024 年對這個行業的每個人來說都是艱難的一年。我們的經銷商也包括在內。在去年夏天的經銷商會議上，我們向經銷商承諾，無論在順境或充滿挑戰的時期，他們都會得到我們的支持。我們履行了這項承諾，減少了經銷商庫存，同時提供額外的流動支持，幫助他們應對這些充滿挑戰的市場條件。

We reduced ORV dealer inventory by 16% year-over-year through lower shipments, but this commitment came at a cost as we realized approximately $140 million in negative absorption from lower bill levels and left the year with higher finished goods inventory than we would like. Although difficult, actions like these are important as we adhere to our commitment to protect dealer health and maintain production in line with retail demand. While we execute well on the items we could control, it was a difficult environment to forecast and our strategic actions to protect dealers and compete led to pressure on our financial results.

透過減少出貨量，我們將ORV 經銷商庫存年減了16%，但這項承諾是有代價的，因為我們意識到，帳單水準下降帶來了大約1.4 億美元的負吸收，導致這一年的成品庫存高於我們的預期。儘管困難重重，但此類行動非常重要，因為我們恪守保護經銷商健康並維持生產符合零售需求的承諾。雖然我們在可以控制的專案上執行得很好，但這是一個很難預測的環境，我們保護經銷商和競爭的策略行動給我們的財務表現帶來了壓力。

The retail environment didn't help as retail was down from our initial expectations for the year, but more impactful was our decision to cut vehicle shipments to help produce dealer inventory. We also saw a higher promotional environment, adding almost 200 basis points of pressure to our EBITDA margins for the year, along with negative mix, which accounted for more than 1 point of EBITDA headwind. The headwinds we experienced during the year were far greater than our original guidance, but we believe many of these are short term in nature. I remain confident that we're taking the necessary steps to emerge stronger as we strive towards higher incremental margins to improve profitability and innovation to help drive share gains.

零售環境並沒有起到幫助作用，因為零售量低於我們對今年的最初預期，但影響更大的是我們決定削減車輛出貨量以幫助增加經銷商庫存。我們也看到了更高的促銷環境，為我們今年的 EBITDA 利潤率帶來了近 200 個基點的壓力，此外還有負面因素，這對 EBITDA 造成了超過 1 個百分點的不利影響。我們在這一年中經歷的阻力遠大於我們最初的指導，但我們相信其中許多都是短期的。我仍然相信，我們正在採取必要的措施來變得更強大，因為我們努力提高利潤率，提高獲利能力和創新能力，以幫助推動份額成長。

Looking specifically at our fourth quarter results. North American retail was down 7%, driven by similar trends we've seen throughout the year with the addition of a very weak snow season and strong youth retail. We achieved the updated financial charts we laid out in October. We also achieved our ORV dealer inventory reduction target established midyear. As I mentioned earlier, ORV dealer inventory was down 16% year-over-year versus our goal of down 15% to 20%. We told you we'd anchor our financial results and shipment plans to our dealer inventory goals. We did just that with ORV shipments in the fourth quarter being reduced approximately 30% versus Q4 2023.

具體來看我們第四季的業績。北美零售業下降了 7%，受到我們全年看到的類似趨勢的推動，加上雪季非常疲軟和青年零售業強勁。我們更新了 10 月制定的財務圖表。我們也實現了年中製定的 ORV 經銷商庫存削減目標。正如我之前提到的，ORV 經銷商庫存年減了 16%，而我們的目標是下降 15% 至 20%。我們告訴過您，我們會將我們的財務表現和出貨計畫與我們的經銷商庫存目標掛鉤。我們正是這樣做的，第四季的 ORV 出貨量比 2023 年第四季減少了約 30%。

This reduction caused negative pressure within our business, but was necessary as we partner with our dealers to help them navigate this prolonged down cycle. Adjusted gross profit margin of 21.1% was up modestly given realized savings from lean and operational efficiencies as well as a favorable compare due to a onetime warranty expense last year and on-road. Adjusted gross profit and EBITDA were pressured by negative absorption associated with the shipment cuts.

這種減少對我們的業務帶來了負面壓力，但這是必要的，因為我們與經銷商合作，幫助他們度過這個漫長的下行週期。考慮到精實和營運效率帶來的節省，以及去年和道路上的一次性保固費用帶來的有利比較，調整後毛利率小幅上升至 21.1%。調整後的毛利和 EBITDA 受到與出貨量削減相關的負吸收的壓力。

Somewhat offsetting these headwinds was the reduction to our variable compensation plan, term profit sharing and executive bonus plan due to the financial results in 2024 as well as structural cost reductions made to size the business to current market conditions, which included salary head count reductions. Adjusted EPS of $0.92 was down 54% as a result of the previously mentioned factors. Interest expense was in line with our original expectations, and our tax rate came in slightly favorable.

由於2024 年的財務業績，我們減少了可變薪酬計劃、定期利潤分享和高管獎金計劃，以及為適應當前市場狀況調整業務規模而進行的結構性成本削減（其中包括工資人數減少），在一定程度上抵消了這些不利因素。由於上述因素，調整後每股收益為 0.92 美元，下降了 54%。利息支出符合我們原來的預期，而且我們的稅率略有優惠。

Breaking down retail further. In Off-Road, we saw similar trends across the portfolio relative to prior periods this year. Typically, snow is an added benefit this time of the year, but we are currently in the middle of another difficult snow season given the lack of snow in the flat-lands. This is the second season in a row with below-average snow resulting in elevated inventory dealerships and sharply lower retail. We've already lowered our build schedule to account for this weak sales season to date, and this is the guidance given today.

進一步細分零售業。在越野方面，我們看到整個投資組合與今年前期的趨勢相似。通常，一年中的這個時候，下雪是一個額外的好處，但由於平原地區缺乏積雪，我們目前正處於另一個困難的雪季之中。這是連續第二個降雪季節低於平均水平，導致經銷商庫存增加和零售額大幅下降。我們已經降低了構建計劃，以應對迄今為止疲軟的銷售季節，這就是今天給出的指導。

I think it's also important to call out youth in our performance of recreational retail. It was up strong double digits in the quarter due to a positive holiday selling season and a favorable compared to last year. Outside of youth, recreational side-by-sides were down mid-teens as we still see growth in crossover offset by pressure on RZR. Utility was down low single digits with modest pressure on both RANGER and ATVs. Sequentially, our RANGER retail decline was lower in Q4 than in Q3. On-Road retail in Q4 was again driven by softness in the heavyweight segment.

我認為在我們的休閒零售業績中喚起年輕人的關注也很重要。由於假日銷售旺季的積極發展以及與去年相比的良好表現，該季度的銷售額實現了兩位數的強勁增長。除了青少年之外，娛樂遊戲的銷售量在十幾歲左右下降，因為我們仍然看到跨界遊戲的成長被 RZR 的壓力所抵消。公用事業下降了低個位數，對 RANGER 和 ATV 造成了適度的壓力。隨後，我們的 RANGER 零售跌幅在第四季低於第三季。第四季的公路零售再次受到重量級細分市場疲軟的推動。

We saw share gains and growth in our midsized bikes given the successful launch of our new Indian Motorcycle Scout lineup. However, this was muted by the challenging dynamics in the overall industry. At our Motorcycle dealer meeting last week, we launched separate new bikes, including Sport Chief, Roadmaster [Power Plus] and Chief (inaudible) Power Plus.

隨著我們新的 Indian Motorcycle Scout 系列的成功推出，我們看到了中型自行車的份額成長和成長。然而，整個產業充滿挑戰的動態卻削弱了這一勢頭。在上週的摩托車經銷商會議上，我們推出了單獨的新自行車，包括 Sport Chief、Roadmaster [Power Plus] 和 Chief（聽不清楚）Power Plus。

The Power Plus models incorporate our new 112 cubic inch version of the Power Plus engine, which we spent two years developed in refining through the Indian Motorcycle racing program as demonstrated in our 2024 King of the Baggers Championship. The response from dealers was positive on new products and cautious on 2025. In Marine, retail was down modestly in a seasonally light quarter. And although we were entering the boat show season, feedback thus far has been positive.

Power Plus 車型採用了我們新的 112 立方英寸版本的 Power Plus 發動機，該發動機是我們花了兩年時間通過印度摩托車賽車計劃進行改進開發的，正如我們的 2024 年 Baggers 錦標賽中所展示的那樣。經銷商對新產品反應積極，對2025年持謹慎態度。在海洋領域，零售業在季節性淡季中小幅下滑。儘管我們正進入遊艇展季節，但迄今為止的回饋都是正面的。

I commented last quarter on how we've seen other OEMs running at elevated promotional rates as they work through higher-than-normal noncurrent inventory levels. This dynamic remains going in the market today and continues to drive short-term share gains for those OEMs. We do not view this tactic as sustainable or one that can drive long-term high-quality share growth. We believe these aggressive promotions are the result of over shipping into a declining retail environment. resulting in dealers being saddled with noncurrent inventory that cannot move without these elevated promotional dollars.

上個季度我評論了我們如何看到其他原始設備製造商在處理高於正常的非當前庫存水平時以更高的促銷率運行。這種動態在今天的市場上仍然存在，並繼續推動這些原始設備製造商的短期份額成長。我們認為這項策略不可持續，也不能推動長期高品質的股票成長。我們認為，這些激進的促銷活動是在零售環境下滑的情況下過度運輸的結果。導致經銷商背負著非流動庫存，如果沒有這些增加的促銷費用，這些庫存就無法移動。

If I could sum up dealer sentiment right now, I would say they are cautious. They are closely watching inventory across all categories and OEMs. Dealers are seeing OEMs take different approaches in this prolonged down cycle and are therefore, choosing to keep inventory light as they continue to experience low retail.

如果我能總結一下經銷商現在的情緒，我會說他們很謹慎。他們正在密切關注所有類別和原始設備製造商的庫存。經銷商發現原始設備製造商在這個漫長的下行週期中採取了不同的方法，因此在零售量持續低迷的情況下選擇保持庫存較少。

Just this last quarter, we've seen news of OEMs filing for bankruptcy or shutting down production for a prolonged period of time. as well as OEMs putting part of their business up for sale, which leads many questions -- many to question the future of some brands. Dealer health is something we watch closely through our Polaris acceptance joint venture.

就在上個季度，我們看到整車廠申請破產或長期停產的消息。以及原始設備製造商出售部分業務，這引發了許多問題——許多人質疑某些品牌的未來。我們透過北極星驗收合資企業密切關注經銷商的健康狀況。

And currently, there are no alarming signs of an abnormal number of dealers and financial distress. Dealers are taking the appropriate steps to manage this downturn by surgically lowering inventory levels and focusing on growth areas such as service to improve cash flows. Throughout this time, we've worked hard to stay close to our dealers in order to be a strong partner.

目前，還沒有出現經銷商數量異常和財務困境的令人擔憂的跡象。經銷商正在採取適當的措施來應對這種低迷，透過手術降低庫存水準並專注於服務等成長領域以改善現金流。在此期間，我們一直努力與經銷商保持密切聯繫，以成為強大的合作夥伴。

I think it's important to acknowledge that while we met our dealer inventory goals for the year, that does not necessarily mean shipments will begin to grow. We're going to continue to actively manage dealer inventory. And given the most recent retail data, we're forecasting shipments to be down in the first quarter.

我認為重要的是要承認，雖然我們達到了今年的經銷商庫存目標，但這並不一定意味著出貨量將開始成長。我們將繼續積極管理經銷商庫存。鑑於最新的零售數據，我們預測第一季的出貨量將會下降。

Lastly, I want to comment on ridership and customer trends and interest as it relates to the offered portion of the business. According to our ORV ridership data, writing remained equal to or slightly above proved endemic levels. Of course, we saw a spike in our ridership data during COVID, which peaked in 2022. That started coming down and seemed to have bottomed out in late 2023. Since then, ridership has steadily increased with our latest data showing a mid-teens percentage increase versus January of 2020. We also track short-term and long-term repurchase rates, all of which are in line with pre-pandemic levels.

最後，我想評論一下客流量和客戶趨勢以及興趣，因為它與所提供的業務部分相關。根據我們的 ORV 乘客數據，寫作仍然等於或略高於已證實的流行水平。當然，我們在新冠疫情期間看到客流量數據激增，並在 2022 年達到頂峰。這一數字開始下降，並似乎在 2023 年底觸底。自那時起，客流量穩定成長，我們的最新數據顯示，與 2020 年 1 月相比，客流量百分比增加了十幾歲。我們還追蹤短期和長期回購率，所有這些都與疫情前的水平一致。

The five-year repurchase rate has been consistent for over four years unless the data tells us that this -- this trend continues, we should expect a greater number of repurchases in the next several years given the higher retail levels in the early months of the pandemic. We believe this data around repurchases and ridership supports the notion that interest in the off-road industry remains healthy, and customers continue to enjoy being outside on our vehicles. Shifting gears to our focus on lean and operational efficiencies.

The five-year repurchase rate has been consistent for over four years unless the data tells us that this -- this trend continues, we should expect a greater number of repurchases in the next several years given the higher retail levels in the early months of the大流行.我們相信，這些有關回購和乘客量的數據支持了這樣一種觀念，即人們對越野行業的興趣仍然保持健康，並且客戶繼續享受我們的車輛在戶外的樂趣。我們將重點轉向精益和營運效率。

We are in full swing with these initiatives, and the team is executing at a high level. This was always going to be a longer-term journey measured in years versus quarters. There were initial opportunities that we were able to capture in 2024. The team went above and beyond to deliver over $250 million in savings relative to our initial goal of $150 million, driven by the need to respond to lower volumes and taking an appropriate amount of cost out of our business. Our focus areas are commodities, parts, logistics and plants, and these will continue to be the areas of focus going forward. As you know from past calls, headwinds and absorption due to lower production in these current market conditions are masking much of the benefit, but the changes are real and sustainable.

我們正在全力推進這些舉措，並且團隊正在高水準執行。這始終是一個以年和季度來衡量的長期旅程。我們在 2024 年抓住了一些初步機會。由於需要應對銷售量下降並適當降低業務成本，該團隊超越了我們 1.5 億美元的初始目標，節省了超過 2.5 億美元。我們的重點領域是商品、零件、物流和工廠，這些將繼續成為未來的重點領域。正如您從過去的電話中了解到的那樣，當前市場條件下產量下降導致的阻力和吸收掩蓋了大部分收益，但變化是真實且可持續的。

More importantly, we validated that there's a larger opportunity to improve within our existing footprint, given an ample runway to increase profitability as volumes return from cyclical lows. We now have lean lines up and running in Monterrey, Mexico and Huntsville, Alabama and are currently establishing a lean line in Rosa, Minnesota. Our efforts resulted in a meaningful drop in variable costs in our plants. However, this was offset by the negative absorption from lower production. Broad inventory was down 25% last year, and we plan on additional reductions to finished goods inventory in 2025.

更重要的是，我們證實，隨著銷售量從週期性低點回升，我們有足夠的空間來提高獲利能力，因此在現有足跡內進行改進的機會更大。我們現在在墨西哥蒙特雷和阿拉巴馬州亨茨維爾建立並運行精益生產線，目前正在明尼蘇達州羅莎建立精益生產線。我們的努力使工廠的變動成本顯著下降。然而，這被產量下降帶來的負吸收所抵消。去年整體庫存下降了 25%，我們計劃在 2025 年進一步減少成品庫存。

All of this should lead to lower working capital and increased cash flows. We will continue our lean journey in 2025, focusing on sustaining and building on the gains we've made so far. Our savings target in 2025 is approximately $40 million through these efforts. Given we're expecting lower production volumes in 2025, much of this will continue to be offset with negative absorption. However, we're executing on these items to build higher incremental margins for Polaris when volume does return? This work has always been about the longer-term value, and I'm confident that we're taking the right steps to realize this goal.

所有這些都將導致營運資本減少和現金流增加。我們將在 2025 年繼續我們的精實之旅，重點是維持和鞏固我們迄今所取得的成果。透過這些努力，我們到 2025 年的節省目標約為 4000 萬美元。鑑於我們預期 2025 年產量將會下降，其中大部分將繼續被負吸收量所抵銷。然而，我們正在執行這些項目，以便在銷售恢復時為北極星建立更高的增量利潤？這項工作始終關注長期價值，我相信我們正在採取正確的步驟來實現這一目標。

Now I'm going to turn it over to Bob to provide you with more details on the financials. Bob?

現在我將把它交給鮑勃，為您提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。鮑伯？

Thanks, Mike, and good morning or afternoon to everyone on the call today. Fourth quarter sales declined 23% compared to last year. Similar to the third quarter, the main factor for our sales decline was our decision to actively reduce dealer inventory in the second half of the year by shipping less product to dealers. Retail performance was slightly below our expectations during the quarter due to a challenging snow season. Mix was also negative as we are lapping some difficult comparable periods when we were still filling the channel with new products such as RANGER XD and Polaris Expedition. In addition, we are shipping fewer premium products to provide more attractive entry points for consumers and help dealers manage their flooring expenses.

謝謝麥克，今天與會的每個人都早安或下午好。第四季銷售額與去年同期相比下降了23%。與第三季類似，我們銷售量下降的主要因素是我們決定在下半年積極減少經銷商庫存，減少向經銷商運送產品。由於雪季充滿挑戰，本季零售業績略低於我們的預期。混合也是負面的，因為我們正在經歷一些困難的可比時期，當時我們仍在用 RANGER XD 和 Polaris Expedition 等新產品填充管道。此外，我們減少了優質產品的出貨量，以便為消費者提供更具吸引力的切入點，並幫助經銷商管理他們的地板費用。

Lastly, as Mike mentioned, the environment remains highly promotional. Our international business was down 7%, driven by a drop in shipments as we have adopted a similar strategy in the international markets as in North America to help dealers manage their inventory. PG&A sales were negatively impacted by the lower factory shipments and slower whole goods retail. Going back to Mike's comments on ridership, we did see growth in items like parts and oil outside of our snow business.

最後，正如麥克所提到的，環境仍然高度促進。由於出貨量下降，我們的國際業務下降了 7%，因為我們在國際市場採取了與北美類似的策略來幫助經銷商管理庫存。PG&A 的銷售受到工廠出貨量下降和整體商品零售放緩的負面影響。回到麥克對客流量的評論，我們確實看到了雪地業務以外的零件和油等項目的成長。

Historically, these are good indicators that our customers are out enjoying their vehicles. Gross profit margins were negatively impacted by volume and mix as well as the negative FX impact from a strengthening dollar. Somewhat offsetting these headwinds were savings within our operations and the cuts we made to our employee profit sharing program associated with the subdued financial performance in 2024. We A little background on our profit sharing program as it differs from what many companies refer to as a bonus plan or annual incentives. At Polaris, we maintain an equitable approach while both sharing in the success of our efforts and the challenges during downturns.

從歷史上看，這些都是我們的客戶享受他們的車輛的良好指標。毛利率受到銷售和產品組合以及美元走強帶來的負面外匯影響的負面影響。我們營運中的節省以及與 2024 年財務業績低迷相關的員工利潤分享計劃的削減在一定程度上抵消了這些不利因素。讓我們介紹一下我們的利潤分享計畫的背景，因為它與許多公司所說的獎金計畫或年度激勵不同。在北極星，我們保持公平的態度，同時分享我們努力的成功和經濟低迷時期的挑戰。

Our profit sharing program is not exclusive to executives or limited to a specific job level. Instead, it is deeply rooted across the organization and even extends to the majority of our US-based factory employees. This program is a cornerstone of our culture, helping us attract, retain and engage strong talent. It is also slightly larger than similar programs at other organizations, reflecting our commitment to shared success. The program adjusts based on financial performance with lower payouts when results fall short of targets. That was the case in 2024, which provided a benefit to our financial results. However, this dynamic will reverse in 2025 and which I will address when discussing guidance. Turning to Off-Road.

我們的利潤分享計畫並非專屬於高階主管或僅限於特定職位層級。相反，它在整個組織中根深蒂固，甚至延伸到我們美國工廠的大多數員工。該計劃是我們文化的基石，幫助我們吸引、留住和聘用優秀人才。它也比其他組織的類似計劃略大，反映了我們對共同成功的承諾。該計劃根據財務表現進行調整，當結果未達到目標時，支付較低的費用。2024 年的情況就是如此，這為我們的財務表現帶來了好處。然而，這種動態將在 2025 年逆轉，我將在討論指導時討論這一點。轉向越野。

Sales were down 25% due to lower volume and negative mix. Snow had an oversized impact in the quarter, given sales in retail were both down over 30% versus the prior year driven by the lack of snow across many important regions for trail riders. North American ORV retail in the quarter was flat with weakness in RZR, offset by strength in use in the crossover category. We believe retail in the ORV industry was up mid-single digits for the quarter. Promotions and discounting from other OEMs, primarily on noncurrent products are driving most of the share dynamics in the industry today as they work to clear out aged products. Gross profit margin was positively impacted by operational efficiency, partially offset by negative mix and financing interest.

由於銷量下降和負面影響，銷售額下降了 25%。雪在本季產生了巨大的影響，因為許多重要的越野騎士地區缺乏降雪，導致零售銷售額比前一年下降了 30% 以上。本季北美 ORV 零售量持平，RZR 疲軟，但被跨界車類別的使用強勁所抵消。我們認為本季 ORV 產業的零售額成長了中個位數。其他原始設備製造商（主要針對非當前產品）的促銷和折扣正在推動當今行業的大部分份額動態，因為他們致力於清理老化產品。毛利率受到營運效率的正面影響，但部分被負面組合和融資利息所抵銷。

As we look at the first quarter, we expect shipments to remain down in off-road as we continue to manage dealer inventory in a declining retail environment, and we have a difficult comparable period where we were still filling the channel with Rangers. We also expect margins to be a headwind with unfavorable mix, partially offset by net price. Switching to On-Road.

展望第一季度，我們預計越野車的出貨量將繼續下降，因為我們在零售環境不斷下滑的情況下繼續管理經銷商庫存，而且我們面臨著一段艱難的可比時期，我們仍在用Rangers 填充渠道。我們也預期利潤率將成為不利組合的阻力，但部分被淨價抵銷。切換到公路行駛。

Sales during the quarter were down 21%. There continues to be a divergence between our midsize and heavyweight business. In midsize, we are winning with the all-new Indian Motorcycle Scout lineup we launched last year and continue to hold the #1 market share position. In the heavyweight segment, (inaudible) from competitive launches in a more challenging market environment as these motorcycles are positioned at higher price points. We also saw elevated competitive promotions during the quarter that negatively impacted sales. Indian Motorcycles gained modest share during the quarter, driven by the success of the Scout launch. Adjusted gross profit margin was up 235 basis points, driven by an easier comparable quarter last year when we booked a onetime warranty expense.

該季度銷售額下降 21%。我們的中型和重量級業務之間仍然存在差異。在中型車領域，我們以去年推出的全新 Indian Motorcycle Scout 系列獲勝，並持續保持第一的市佔率地位。在重量級細分市場中，（聽不清楚）是在更具挑戰性的市場環境中推出的競爭性產品，因為這些摩托車的定位較高。我們也發現本季競爭性促銷活動增多，對銷售產生了負面影響。在 Scout 推出的成功推動下，印度摩托車在本季獲得了小幅市場份額。調整後的毛利率上升了 235 個基點，這是由於去年我們預訂了一次性保固費用後的可比季度較為輕鬆。

Outside of that, margin would have been pressured given the mix headwind in heavyweight bikes in elevated promotions. In Marine, sales were down 4% in what is typically a very light seasonal quarter as the industry ramps up for boat show season. The latest industry data we have shows the pontoon industry was down 11% in 2024 as OEMs continue to work down inventory and consumers decided to forgo larger discretionary purchases. We have received positive innovation on our feedback in marine this year from dealers as we head into boat show season. Order flow of these new boats has been encouraging as dealers want to showcase the innovation to consumers in person on their dealer floors. Gross profit margin in Marine was down given unfavorable absorption from lower volumes. Moving to our financial position.

除此之外，考慮到重量級自行車在促銷活動中的混合阻力，利潤率將受到壓力。在船舶領域，隨著船舶展覽季節的到來，該行業的銷售額在通常非常淡季的季度中下降了 4%。我們掌握的最新行業數據顯示，隨著原始設備製造商繼續減少庫存以及消費者決定放棄更大的可自由支配採購，浮橋行業在 2024 年將下降 11%。隨著今年船展季節的到來，我們從經銷商那裡收到了關於船舶領域積極創新的回饋。這些新船的訂單流一直令人鼓舞，因為經銷商希望在經銷商樓層親自向消費者展示創新。由於銷量下降的不利影響，船舶業務的毛利率下降。轉向我們的財務狀況。

We have a strong balance sheet and continue to prioritize maintaining investment-grade metrics. Our capital deployment priorities start with investing in our core business. Our second priority is preserving our dividend as we have raised the dividend for 29 consecutive years. In 2025, we intend to put a higher priority on paying down debt. As we focus on working capital improvements and plan for lower capital expenditures, we expect 2025 to be a strong year of cash generation. Last year, we made progress on lowering raw material inventories but also built finished goods balances as we work to rebalance our production line.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表，並繼續優先考慮維持投資等級指標。我們的資本部署優先事項從投資我們的核心業務開始。我們的第二要務是維持股息，因為我們已連續 29 年提高股利。2025年，我們打算把償還債務放在更優先的位置。由於我們專注於改善營運資本並計劃降低資本支出，我們預計 2025 年將是現金產生強勁的一年。去年，我們在降低原料庫存方面取得了進展，但在努力重新平衡生產線的同時也建立了成品平衡。

In 2025, we will execute a plan to drive down this high level of finished goods inventory. We expect this to be accomplished with improved planning, a reduction in rework and lower unit production levels. Accordingly, we expect to start seeing finished goods inventory decline later in the year. By lowering our working capital needs and planning for lower capital expenditures, we believe we can generate approximately $350 million in adjusted free cash flow this year. We remain confident in our financial position and are driving our teams to improve working capital in this part of the economic cycle. Next, I would like to discuss our 2025 full year guidance and the assumptions that led us to these guidance metrics.

2025 年，我們將執行一項計劃來降低高水準的成品庫存。我們期望透過改善規劃、減少返工和降低單位生產水準來實現這一目標。因此，我們預計今年稍後成品庫存將開始下降。透過降低我們的營運資金需求並規劃降低資本支出，我們相信今年我們可以產生約 3.5 億美元的調整後自由現金流。我們對我們的財務狀況仍然充滿信心，並正在推動我們的團隊改善經濟週期這一階段的營運資本。接下來，我想討論我們的 2025 年全年指導以及導致我們得出這些指導指標的假設。

First, sales are expected to be slightly lower than last year. The 2 biggest factors driving this decline are lower expected shipment volumes and the continued strength of the US dollar. Regarding the volume drop, we've accounted for a sizable cut in production in our snow business given the second season in a row of poor riding conditions in the flat lands. It is also worth noting that we expect positive net price with some moderate price increases. Mix is expected to be a headwind during the year, but more pronounced in the first half as we have difficult comparison periods given channel fill and strong RANGER NorthStar sales in the first half of 2024.

首先，銷售額預計將略低於去年。推動這一下降的兩個最大因素是預期出貨量下降和美元持續走強。關於產量下降，考慮到第二個季節平坦地區的騎乘條件連續不佳，我們的雪地業務產量大幅減少。另外值得注意的是，我們預期淨價將呈正值，價格將適度上漲。混合預計將成為今年的逆風，但在上半年更為明顯，因為考慮到 2024 年上半年的通路填充和 RANGER NorthStar 的強勁銷售，我們很難進行比較。

By segment, Off-road sales are expected to be down low single digits. Again, our decision to reduce no inventory is the biggest factor driving this segment's lower-than-anticipated sales. We expect a flattish year in ORV. In On-Road, I've already noted that we are taking down shipments due to a weak industry. In Marine, we are expecting low single-digit growth from a market share capture and the innovation across our 3 brands of boats. We expect EBITDA margin to be down year-over-year for the following reasons: first, the reset of our employee profit sharing program, which is expected to have the biggest impact.

以細分市場來看，越野銷量預計將下降低個位數。同樣，我們不減少庫存的決定是導致該細分市場銷售低於預期的最大因素。我們預計 ORV 今年將持平。在路上，我已經注意到，由於行業疲軟，我們正在減少發貨量。在船舶領域，我們預計我們的 3 個船舶品牌的市場份額和創新將實現低個位數成長。我們預期 EBITDA 利潤率將年減，原因如下：首先，員工利潤分享計畫的重置，預計影響最大。

Second would be the mix headwind I noted earlier as well as lower volumes to actively manage dealer inventory in a challenging industry. Third, the lower production targets also put added pressure on our margins through negative absorption. Somewhat offsetting these headwinds, we continue to expect savings within our operations as we make progress on our lean journey. We also expect net price to be positive with modest price increases being marginally offset by promotional dollars.

其次是我之前提到的混合逆風，以及在充滿挑戰的行業中積極管理經銷商庫存的銷售下降。第三，較低的產量目標也透過負吸收給我們的利潤率帶來了額外的壓力。隨著我們在精益之旅中取得進展，我們繼續期望在營運中實現節省，從而在一定程度上抵消這些不利因素。我們也預期淨價將為正，適度的價格上漲將被促銷費用略微抵銷。

Putting all this together, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to be down 170 to 200 basis points. Given these pressures, we expect approximately $1.10 for adjusted EPS this year. Cost headwinds are driving lower earnings despite some of our mitigation efforts. The reset of our employee profit sharing program, the expected drop in volume and lower mix plus negative absorption are expected to be a headwind of almost $3 to adjusted EPS. We are working hard to offset some of these pressures with continued savings expected within our plants as well as the benefit of our cost reduction efforts last year. Costs such as depreciation and interest expense are also eroding EPS since there is no additional volume to offset and these are somewhat fixed year-over-year.

綜上所述，我們預期調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將下降 170 至 200 個基點。考慮到這些壓力，我們預計今年調整後每股收益約為 1.10 美元。儘管我們採取了一些緩解措施，但成本逆風正在導致收益下降。我們的員工利潤分享計畫的重置、預期的銷售下降和較低的組合加上負吸收預計將對調整後的每股盈餘產生近 3 美元的阻力。我們正在努力透過工廠內預計的持續節約以及去年降低成本努力的效益來抵消其中一些壓力。折舊和利息費用等成本也在侵蝕每股收益，因為沒有額外的數量可以抵消，而且這些成本與去年同期相比有些固定。

Note that our guidance does not assume a change in regulatory policy, which includes tariffs. Some quick thoughts on the first quarter. Sales are expected to be down over 10% due to a difficult comparable as last year we were still filling the channel with product. As I noted when discussing Off-Road, we are expecting some material year-over-year headwinds from mix and FX in the quarter, where we are planning to continue reducing shipments to manage dealer inventory. We expect this drop in volume, coupled with the specific margin pressure I mentioned will result in adjusted EPS loss of $0.85 to $1 in the first quarter.

請注意，我們的指導意見並不假設監管政策（包括關稅）發生變化。關於第一季的一些快速想法。由於去年我們仍在用產品填充管道，因此很難進行比較，預計銷售額將下降 10% 以上。正如我在討論越野時指出的那樣，我們預計本季的混合和外匯會出現一些同比重大阻力，我們計劃繼續減少發貨量以管理經銷商庫存。我們預計銷售量的下降，加上我提到的具體利潤率壓力，將導致第一季調整後每股收益損失 0.85 美元至 1 美元。

Our expectations are for earnings to improve and turn positive in the second quarter. Importantly, we believe the innovation we have brought to the market and the work we are doing with our dealers put us in a very strong competitive position in this injury. We expect to gain or hold market share with this innovation and look forward to being the partner of choice with our dealers as we navigate this market. We believe our proactive efforts on cost and efficiencies will set us up well for a strong recovery when the industry returns to growth. We are also taking actions to generate more cash this year with specific actions around inventories.

我們的預期是第二季獲利將改善並轉正。重要的是，我們相信我們為市場帶來的創新以及我們與經銷商所做的工作使我們在這次傷害中處於非常強大的競爭地位。我們希望透過這項創新獲得或維持市場份額，並期待在我們開拓這個市場時成為經銷商的首選合作夥伴。我們相信，我們在成本和效率方面的積極努力將為我們在行業恢復成長時實現強勁復甦奠定基礎。今年我們也採取行動，透過圍繞庫存採取具體行動來創造更多現金。

As Mike shared, consumers are still riding and we view this as a positive indicator for the longer-term viability of this industry. We are bullish on powersports over the long term, understanding this is a cyclical business. We know these are challenging times for consumers in our industry. It's easy to take a short-term view. However, I am confident we are taking the appropriate steps today and are focused in the right areas to navigate the current environment while still executing towards our longer-term initiatives around growth and stronger earnings power. Our ability to execute this year should have a direct impact on our ability to emerge stronger. The Polaris team is aligned on what needs to be done in order to define success for all of our stakeholders.

正如麥克分享的那樣，消費者仍在騎行，我們認為這是該行業長期生存能力的積極指標。從長遠來看，我們看好動力運動，因為我們知道這是一項週期性業務。我們知道，對於我們行業的消費者來說，現在是充滿挑戰的時期。人們很容易採取短期觀點。然而，我相信我們今天正在採取適當的步驟，並專注於正確的領域來應對當前的環境，同時仍然執行我們圍繞增長和更強的盈利能力的長期計劃。我們今年的執行能力應該會直接影響我們變得更強的能力。Polaris 團隊在需要做什麼方面保持一致，以便為所有利害關係人定義成功。

With that, I will turn it back over to Mike to wrap up the call. Go ahead, Mike.

這樣，我會將其轉回給麥克來結束通話。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks, Bob. Our key focus areas for 2025 are not all that different from 2024. I believe these focus areas set us up to be a strong partner with our dealers as we navigate the prolonged down cycle in the powersports industry and strengthen our operations become more efficient and position Polaris to emerge from this down cycle even stronger. We continue to value our long-term partnership with dealers striving to be their OEM of choice. We're actively working with them to navigate the current environment, and we expect shipments to be down in the first quarter as we continue to manage dealer inventory levels. We have worked closely with dealers to align their inventory and RFM profiles to an industry that is expected to be pressured by a recreational consumer dealing with elevated interest rates, inflation and higher debt. Turning to innovation.

謝謝，鮑伯。我們 2025 年的重點關注領域與 2024 年沒有太大不同。我相信，這些重點領域使我們能夠成為經銷商的強大合作夥伴，幫助我們應對動力運動行業的長期衰退週期，加強我們的運營，提高效率，並使北極星在擺脫這一衰退週期時變得更加強大。我們繼續重視與經銷商的長期合作夥伴關係，並努力成為他們的首選 OEM。我們正在積極與他們合作以應對當前的環境，隨著我們繼續管理經銷商庫存水平，我們預計第一季的出貨量將會下降。我們與經銷商密切合作，調整他們的庫存和 RFM 概況，以適應這個行業，該行業預計將受到休閒消費者應對利率上升、通貨膨脹和債務增加的壓力。轉向創新。

It's been several great years of innovation from Polaris. We expect to continue marching forward on innovation in 2025 and beyond. I've already discussed the new Indian motorcycles launched last week. In Off-Road, we currently have one of the most innovative and diversified portfolios in the industry, and we look to strengthen our position in (inaudible) segment later this year. In Marine, customers will get their first look at the upcoming boat shows at the completely redesigned helms in Bennington pontoons as well as the new Series M. We feel this next wave of innovation can continue to deliver on what customers want while leaving our competition in catch-up mode. As noted earlier, we expect to remain on the lean journey we began a year ago. The results we saw last year are real and encouraging. We will build on those results in 2025, knowing there is still more work to do and additional savings to be created. I am proud of the team's dedication to changing their behavior and embracing this lean initiative.

北極星已經經歷了數年偉大的創新。我們預計 2025 年及以後將持續推進創新。我已經討論過上週推出的新印度摩托車。在越野領域，我們目前擁有業內最具創新性和多元化的產品組合之一，我們希望在今年稍後加強我們在（聽不清楚）領域的地位。在船舶領域，客戶將在Bennington 浮橋上完全重新設計的舵以及新的M 系列上首次看到即將舉行的船舶展。領先地位。如前所述，我們預計將繼續一年前開始的精實之旅。我們去年看到的結果是真實且令人鼓舞的。我們將在 2025 年取得這些成果的基礎上再接再厲，因為我們知道還有更多工作要做，還需要節省更多資金。我為團隊致力於改變行為並接受這項精實舉措感到自豪。

Lastly, we are highly focused on working capital, specifically inventory to help improve our cash generation. We made progress last year on raw materials but grew finished goods as we adjust to production schedules to protect dealer inventory. For 2025, we reduced our build schedule to drive down finished goods inventory and generate more cash. This should be more evident during the back half of the year, but the initiatives internally have begun. Similar to dealers, we remain cautious about the industry. Retail trends have not given us a reason to change our outlook nor do we see much change for the consumer in 2025. We have committed to dealers that we are going to actively manage their inventory with the cadence of production leading to lower shipments as we start the year.

最後，我們高度關注營運資本，特別是庫存，以幫助提高我們的現金產生能力。去年，我們在原材料方面取得了進展，但隨著我們調整生產計劃以保護經銷商庫存，成品也有所成長。2025 年，我們縮短了建造計劃，以降低成品庫存並產生更多現金。這在今年下半年應該會更加明顯，但內部措施已經開始。與經銷商類似，我們對該行業保持謹慎態度。零售趨勢並沒有給我們改變前景的理由，我們也沒有看到 2025 年消費者會發生太大變化。我們向經銷商承諾，我們將積極管理他們的庫存，調整生產節奏，導致年初出貨量下降。

I do want to be clear that our teams are closely watching the data for any type of change in trends and we are ready to shift into high gear if we see demand improving. This is certainly a dynamic time in the history of power sports, and we stand willing and able to partner with our dealers as we navigate towards better times together. As has been the case, we remain on offense with our investment in innovation and our cadence of new vehicle launches. This is deeply rooted in our DNA and a key driver of our global leadership in the powersports industry. The decisions we make today are not made with short-term results in mind.

我確實想澄清的是，我們的團隊正在密切關注數據以了解任何類型的趨勢變化，如果我們看到需求改善，我們就準備好進入高速檔。這無疑是力量運動史上的一個充滿活力的時期，我們願意並且能夠與我們的經銷商合作，共同邁向更好的時代。與以往的情況一樣，我們仍然對創新投資和新車發布節奏感到不滿。這深植於我們的基因中，也是我們在動力運動產業全球領先地位的關鍵驅動力。我們今天所做的決定並不是考慮短期結果。

We continue to build a company that we believe can emerge stronger, and we remain committed to the mid-cycle financial targets we gave in 2022, and when we talked about driving shareholder value through mid-single-digit sales growth, mid- to high teens EBITDA margin, double-digit EPS growth and mid-20s ROIC. Until then, we're focused on items that are within our control. We have a strong balance sheet, a robust innovation pipeline, coupled with great dealers and a team at Polaris that is willing and able to tackle any challenge. I am confident that there are better times ahead for us, our dealers and customers and also for our investors. We appreciate your continued support.

我們繼續打造一家我們相信能夠變得更強大的公司，我們仍然致力於實現 2022 年的中期財務目標，當我們談到透過中位數的銷售成長來推動股東價值時，十幾歲的EBITDA 利潤率、兩位數的EPS 成長和20 多歲的ROIC。在那之前，我們將專注於我們控制範圍內的項目。我們擁有強大的資產負債表、強大的創新管道，以及優秀的經銷商和願意並能夠應對任何挑戰的北極星團隊。我相信，對於我們、我們的經銷商、客戶以及我們的投資者來說，未來將會更加美好。我們感謝您一如既往的支持。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Chuck to open the line for questions.

然後，我會將電話轉回給查克，以開啟提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究中心的弗雷德·懷特曼。

I just wanted to start with the EPS guide. And if we go back last quarter, Mike, I think you sort of hinted something flattish versus the '24 guide was a reasonable starting point. And then obviously, the formal outlook today came in a bit below that. So I'm wondering if you could just walk us through what if anything changed, did we sort of misinterpret what you were trying to convey? How should we think about that?

我只想從 EPS 指南開始。如果我們回顧上個季度，麥克，我認為您暗示與 24 年指南相比，一些平淡的內容是一個合理的起點。顯然，今天的正式前景略低於此。所以我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下，如果發生任何變化，我們是否誤解了您想要傳達的內容？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. Thanks, Fred. I guess I'd start with obviously, we were in October. So we were trying to avoid making too many comments about -- my comment was specifically you got to start at [325] and that was deliberate because we had a number of analysts that were projecting much, much higher numbers that we knew were just not where the business was headed. And the key word there was start with key words start with. I also made comments about the fact that you'd have to adjust for some of the moves we've made in incentive comp, and we obviously didn't provide a lot of details about that at the time. But as Bob just went through the incentive comp adjustment and profit share adjustments pretty sizable.

是的。謝謝，弗雷德。我想我顯然應該從十月開始。因此，我們試圖避免做出太多評論——我的評論特別是你必須從[325] 開始，這是故意的，因為我們有一些分析師預測了很多很多的數字，而我們知道這些數字並不存在。那裡的關鍵字是從關鍵字開始的。我還評論了這樣一個事實，即你必須調整我們在激勵補償方面所做的一些舉措，而且我們當時顯然沒有提供很多相關細節。但由於鮑伯剛剛經歷了相當大的激勵補償調整和利潤分享調整。

And then the reality is we were watching what was going on with retail in October, November and December. And that was in performing and instructing the trajectory that we saw things going into '25. And at the time, we said the [325], that was based on the revenue we were delivering in 2024. And the reality is our revenue is going to be down 1% to 4%. And as Bob indicated, given softer retail in the fourth quarter, we ended up holding back on some shipments and now we have a higher finished goods inventory. So you've got a lower revenue base, you've got a lower production base. So we're going to be producing less than what we're shipping into the channel, and that's going to create some deleverage that we have in the business.

事實上，我們正​​在關注 10 月、11 月和 12 月零售業的情況。這就是在執行和指導我們所看到的進入 25 年後的軌跡。當時，我們說 [325]，這是基於我們 2024 年交付的收入。現實情況是我們的收入將下降 1% 到 4%。正如鮑勃所指出的，鑑於第四季度零售疲軟，我們最終抑制了一些發貨，現在我們的成品庫存更高。所以你的收入基礎較低，你的生產基礎也較低。因此，我們的產量將少於我們運送到通路的產量，這將在我們的業務中產生一些去槓桿化。

And then as I commented on my prepared remarks, the snow industry is under pressure again. We met in early January based on seeing how things closed out in December and given where dealers were and made the decision that we were going to pull our production down even further and work to get dealer inventory down even further in the first half. And then in the Marine segment, obviously, given continued weakness from a retail standpoint, as you all saw in the recent notes that came out on we've made the decision to keep pushing dealer inventory down there. So there's a lot of factors, which is why we would prefer to steer clear from trying to give guidance for the next year in October of the prior year. there's more factors that build in.

然後當我評論我準備好的言論時，雪產業再次面臨壓力。我們在一月初開會，根據 12 月的情況以及經銷商的情況，我們決定進一步降低產量，並努力在上半年進一步降低經銷商庫存。然後在船舶領域，顯然，鑑於零售角度的持續疲軟，正如你們在最近發布的報告中看到的那樣，我們決定繼續壓低經銷商庫存。因此，有很多因素，這就是為什麼我們寧願避免在前一年的 10 月試圖給出明年的指導。還有更多因素在起作用。

We shipped a lot of premium vehicles in, in 2024 as we pushed the Expedition and the Ranger XD into our dealerships. And so there's going to be less of of those shipping in. And then as I mentioned, we're going to have some value products coming in later in the year that are going to create some mix headwind and then Bob pointed to foreign exchange. So there's a lot going on. What I would come back to is as we emerge from this, and we were very deliberate, both Bob and I about the indicators we're watching to make sure that people are still active in our segment and they are and they're writing more than they did before the pandemic. we're gearing this business to have a lower fixed cost base and the efforts we're making from a lean standpoint are going to mean we can get more throughput through the factories with less input, meaning that the incremental is coming out of this and the performance for our business will generate higher EPS.

2024 年，當我們將 Expedition 和 Ranger XD 推向我們的經銷商時，我們運送了大量優質車輛。因此，運送的貨物將會減少。正如我所提到的，我們將在今年晚些時候推出一些有價值的產品，這將產生一些混合逆風，然後鮑勃指出了外匯。所以發生了很多事情。我要回到的是，當我們走出這一步時，鮑勃和我都非常慎重地考慮了我們正在觀察的指標，以確保人們仍然活躍在我們的細分市場中，而且他們正在寫更多內容與大流行之前相比。我們正在調整這項業務，使其具有較低的固定成本基礎，我們從精益的角度所做的努力將意味著我們可以透過工廠以更少的投入獲得更多的吞吐量，這意味著增量來自於此，我們業務的表現將產生更高的每股盈餘。

And that is what we are focused on right now. Bob and his finance team have done an excellent job from a treasury standpoint, making sure that we're in a good spot for investment-grade rating and our debt position with our banks. And when you look around at the field of folks in our industry and the struggles and problems that they're having and businesses going out of business and solvent businesses being sold. I think we're managing through this as best we can. Bob, is there anything you'd add to that?

這就是我們現在關注的重點。從財務角度來看，鮑伯和他的財務團隊做得非常出色，確保我們在投資等級和銀行債務狀況方面處於良好的位置。當你環顧我們這個行業的人們的領域，以及他們所面臨的鬥爭和問題，以及企業倒閉和有償付能力的企業被出售時。我認為我們正在盡力解決這個問題。鮑勃，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just a couple of things, Fred. As you guys saw in CDK October retail looked probably the best of the quarter. And unfortunately, we've seen that dynamic a few quarters in a row now where the first month starts off well, and then it tails off and we saw that again in the fourth quarter. So that drove a more conservative view of what we think 2025 retail will look like. And then to Mike's point, there are a number of other factors. Interest will be relatively flat for the year. We're going to start paying down debt. We'll prioritize paying down debt. after we invest to make the necessary investments in innovation and in our factories and pay our dividend. So we'll start to bring that interest cost down, but we're not factoring in any substantial interest rate cuts as obviously everybody has seen the market seems to think that that's going to not be much of an opportunity in '25. So there's -- some of that is just sort of adjusting the size of that to the new side of the business. And as we work through that, those things will continue to be less of an impact, but we're going to have to deal with it -- '25.

是的。只是幾件事，弗雷德。正如你們在 CDK 中看到的那樣，十月份的零售業看起來可能是本季最好的。不幸的是，我們已經連續幾個季度看到這種動態，第一個月開始時表現良好，然後逐漸減弱，我們在第四季度再次看到這種情況。因此，我們對 2025 年零售業的看法較為保守。就麥克而言，還有許多其他因素。今年的利息將相對持平。我們將開始償還債務。我們將優先償還債務。在我們投資對創新和工廠進行必要的投資並支付股息之後。因此，我們將開始降低利息成本，但我們不會考慮任何大幅降息，因為顯然每個人都看到市場似乎認為這在 25 年不會有太大機會。因此，其中一些只是調整業務規模以適應新的業務。當我們解決這個問題時，這些事情的影響將繼續減少，但我們將不得不處理它 - '25。

Okay. And then just on the free cash flow outlook, you guys are guiding for a pretty nice year-over-year improvement despite the EBITDA and the earnings outlook. CapEx is coming down. You've mentioned some potential tailwinds or expected tailwinds from finished goods. But can you just sort of walk us through the big moving pieces there, please?

好的。然後，就自由現金流前景而言，儘管 EBITDA 和盈利前景不佳，但你們仍指導我們實現相當不錯的同比改善。資本支出正在下降。您提到了成品的一些潛在的推動因素或預期的推動因素。但是您能帶我們了解那裡的大動人部分嗎？

Yes. I mean CapEx will be down to the low 200s. We've had a fair amount of capital build in '23 and '24 as we built those -- the new facilities in Mexico and Vietnam, that work is substantially complete. And those -- as you recall, those are mostly back shop facilities in Mexico and then a larger cycle assembly facility in Vietnam. We'd also updated paint facilities and other things like that in the factory. So we're kind of through that cycle.

是的。我的意思是資本支出將降至 200 多美元。我們在 23 年和 24 年建造了相當多的資本——墨西哥和越南的新設施，這項工作已基本完成。正如您所記得的那樣，這些大多是墨西哥的後車間工廠，然後是越南的一個更大的自行車組裝工廠。我們也更新了工廠的油漆設施和其他類似設施。所以我們已經經歷了這個週期。

We're going to focus on the capital side on tooling, so we're driving innovation. And then high-return projects in the plants, things that need -- we need to do to support lean investments for quality and safety, obviously. And -- but -- so we'll be pretty lean, I think, for a couple of years here on capital which I think we're in a good position to do because we had been investing through the cycle.

我們將重點關注工具的資本方面，因此我們正在推動創新。然後是工廠的高回報項目，顯然，我們需要做這些事情來支持品質和安全的精益投資。而且 - 但是 - 因此，我認為，幾年來我們的資本將非常精簡，我認為我們處於有利的位置，因為我們一直在整個週期中進行投資。

And then on inventory, we're about between $150 million and $200 million heavier on finished goods than I'd like to be. And as Mike said, that's because as we went through the year and particularly the fourth quarter, as we made pretty rapid adjustments to drive down dealer inventory that all had to flow somewhere and you can't just stop production immediately.

然後在庫存方面，我們的成品比我想要的多了大約 1.5 億到 2 億美元。正如麥克所說，這是因為我們在這一年中，特別是在第四季度，我們進行了相當快的調整，以降低經銷商庫存，所有庫存都必須流向某個地方，而你不能立即停止生產。

You have to figure out how to best balance the lines. We said we would be the shock absorber we were. We drove that allowed us to drive some stuff out of raw and get the raw balances down, but now we got to flow the finished goods out through the course of the year. So it will be it will be part capital part inventory, but I feel pretty good about where we're going to be from a cash flow standpoint.

你必須弄清楚如何最好地平衡線條。我們說過我們會成為避震器。我們的推動使我們能夠從原材料中剔除一些東西並降低原材料餘額，但現在我們必須在一年中將成品流出。因此，這將是部分資本部分庫存，但從現金流的角度來看，我對我們的發展前景感到非常滿意。

Fred, back to your first question. If you look at our '24 EPS results and you adjust for the 2 big things that Bob mentioned, the incentive comp plan where we essentially cut the plan in half given the performance and then a recalibration of foreign exchange. It really would say that '24 EPS was more like $1.69. So you're really bridging from $1.69 to $1.10 and because we're planning on paying out the full profit share and incentive plan in 2025. And that's where you can really see the effects of volume and the deleverage. But I think that probably helps bridge the difference between performance and where we're expecting '25 to play out. That incentive plan, which Bob did a great job of highlighting why we do what we do, and it's been a cornerstone of this company since its founding in 1954. That will help kind of bridge why the performance looks so dramatic on a 1% to 4% revenue decline.

弗雷德，回到你的第一個問題。如果你看看我們24 年每股收益的結果，你會根據鮑勃提到的兩件大事進行調整，即激勵補償計劃，考慮到業績，我們基本上將該計劃削減了一半，然後重新調整了外匯。事實上，24 年每股盈餘更像是 1.69 美元。因此，您實際上是從 1.69 美元過渡到 1.10 美元，因為我們計劃在 2025 年支付全部利潤分成和激勵計劃。在那裡你可以真正看到交易量和去槓桿化的影響。但我認為這可能有助於彌合表現與我們期望 25 的表現之間的差異。鮑伯出色地強調了我們所做工作的原因，該計畫自 1954 年成立以來一直是這家公司的基石。這將有助於解釋為什麼在收入下降 1% 到 4% 的情況下業績看起來如此戲劇性。

Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

喬·阿爾托貝洛和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

So I guess first question on the industry. You mentioned a few times here this morning that you do expect to continue challenging environment here in 2025. So I assume you're expecting another down year from an industry standpoint. But are you guys assuming we're going to start to see some growth in the back half of the year?

所以我想第一個問題是關於這個行業的。您今天早上多次提到，您確實預計 2025 年這裡的環境將繼續充滿挑戰。因此，我認為從行業的角度來看，您預計又會出現下滑。但你們是否認為我們會在今年下半年開始看到一些成長？

Yes. I mean right now, we view the industry is probably down low single digits in '25, and a lot of that is really being driven by motorcycles marine and the snow categories. And I think it's tough, Joe. Certainly, for us, from a retail expectation standpoint, we think the first half is still going to be continued challenges. And that really is just reflective of the trends we've seen coming into the fourth quarter and as we exit the fourth quarter, there is anything magical about the New Year.

是的。我的意思是，現在，我們認為該行業在 25 年可能會出現低個位數的下滑，其中很大一部分實際上是由摩托車、海洋和雪地類別推動的。我認為這很難，喬。當然，對我們來說，從零售預期的角度來看，我們認為上半年仍將是持續的挑戰。這確實反映了我們在第四季度看到的趨勢，當我們結束第四季度時，新年有一些神奇的事情。

And as Bob indicated, right now, we're -- who knows how many interest rate changes there will be this year. But consumers still are carrying a lot of debt. Inflation is kind of stalling out in the mid- which would signal that there may not be that many interest rate cuts this year.

正如鮑伯所指出的，現在，我們——誰知道今年會有多少利率變化。但消費者仍然背負著大量債務。通膨在中期陷入停滯，這表明今年可能不會有那麼多降息。

And as we've talked about in the past, it's going to take time for this to work through. The interesting thing is as we look at the performance in the industry, kind of the '24, '25 combined to pre-pandemic levels, it's really the rec areas that have struggled the most, all of which are either flat to down to before the pandemic, and we think that's largely being driven by interest rates, discretionary spend pullback the utility category has held up low single digits growth.

正如我們過去談到的，這需要時間才能解決。有趣的是，當我們觀察該行業的表現時，將“24”、“25”與大流行前的水平相結合，實際上是最困難的娛樂領域，所有這些領域要么持平，要么下降到之前的在水平疫情期間，我們認為這主要是由利率、可自由支配支出的縮減推動的，公用事業類別保持了較低的個位數成長。

And I think that bodes well in terms of at least being a little bit of a shock absorber. And as I talked about in my prepared remarks, we know what the repurchase rates are. We know people are using these vehicles, but it's a tough environment. They paid full MSRP. They're got a low finance loan -- trade-in values are going to be lower than what they would have expected when they first bought the vehicle, they're trading into higher interest rates. So it's going to take a little bit of time.

我認為這至少是一個避震器的好兆頭。正如我在準備好的演講中談到的，我們知道回購率是多少。我們知道人們正在使用這些車輛，但這是一個艱難的環境。他們全額支付了建議零售價。他們獲得的融資貸款很低——以舊換新的價值將低於他們第一次購買車輛時的預期，他們正在以更高的利率進行交易。所以這需要一點時間。

I would hope that things start to improve in the back half Certainly, that would be encouraging for us in terms of forward momentum. But I think we're going to steer clear of making any big prognostications right now.

我希望下半場情況開始有所改善，當然，這對我們前進的動力來說是令人鼓舞的。但我認為我們現在將避免任何重大預測。

That's very helpful. And maybe just a follow-up, and I'm hesitant to ask about it, but tariffs, you mentioned this morning, you're not assuming any additional tariffs in your outlook, but obviously, it's been discussed. So I'm just curious I think last year, tariffs were about $70 million to $75 million. Given what's been discussed, how much incremental tariffs could we potentially see in '25.

這非常有幫助。也許只是一個後續行動，我很猶豫是否要問這個問題，但是關稅，你今天早上提到的，你在展望中沒有假設任何額外的關稅，但顯然，它已經被討論過。所以我很好奇去年的關稅約為 7,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元。鑑於所討論的內容，我們可能會在 25 年看到關稅增量多少。

Yes. We've got about call it, $60 million to $70 million of tariffs in the business today. and that's largely the 301 tariff, List 1, 2 and 3 that were put in place under Trump's first administration. I'll give you some basic data. We're going to steer clear of trying to forecast where this is all headed. We're obviously watching it very closely. We have some excellent government relations folks out in D.C. who are staying very close to this. As you know, it changes by the hour. As of yesterday, we were hearing that it's far more targeted around specific areas like semiconductors, but there's no telling where things could go. I'm sure there'll be some short-term things that may get pulled back because they're being used as a negotiating tactic.

是的。我們今天的業務大約需要徵收 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元的關稅。這主要是川普第一屆政府實施的 301 關稅，即清單 1、清單 2 和清單 3。我給你一些基本數據。我們將避免試圖預測這一切的發展方向。顯然我們正在非常密切地關注它。我們在華盛頓特區有一些優秀的政府關係人員，他們對此非常關注。如您所知，它每小時都在變化。截至昨天，我們聽說它更多地針對半導體等特定領域，但尚不清楚事情會走向何方。我確信一些短期的事情可能會被取消，因為它們被用作談判策略。

So at this point, we're staying focused on the things we can control within the business. If you look at China, we procure about $0.5 billion of components out of China. About half of that goes into the US, about half of that goes into our Mexico facilities. Obviously, the stuff going into the US is where we're paying tariffs today on all the applicable items that hit unless 1, 2 and 3. We have a couple of billion dollars worth of revenue that comes out of our Mexico manufacturing facility. It's about 1/3 of our production in terms of sales that come into the US And we have less than $100 million worth of revenue that comes out of the US into Mexico. We're less than $0.5 billion worth of revenue into Canada, and we import less than $50 million into the US

因此，在這一點上，我們將繼續專注於我們在業務中可以控制的事情。如果你看看中國，我們從中國採購了大約 5 億美元的零件。其中大約一半進入美國，大約一半進入我們的墨西哥工廠。顯然，進入美國的商品是我們今天對 1、2 和 3 之外的所有適用商品徵收關稅的地方。我們的墨西哥製造工廠帶來了價值數十億美元的收入。就銷售額而言，我們的產量大約有 1/3 流入美國，而我們從美國流入墨西哥的收入不到 1 億美元。我們在加拿大的收入不到 5 億美元，我們向美國的進口額不到 5,000 萬美元

What I would tell you is for China, we have been working since the original set of tariffs were put in place. We've pulled down considerably by about a couple of hundred million dollars, the amount that we're procuring out of China. The team has plans in place. As we've talked about, this is not stuff that you can do overnight. These supply chains have been established for decades. But we've been working with our Chinese suppliers. Our sourcing organization has worked aggressively to find alternative supply. We're going after an aggressive amount during 2025.

我要告訴你的是，對中國來說，自從最初的一套關稅實施以來，我們一直在努力。我們從中國採購的金額大幅減少了大約幾億美元。該團隊已製定計劃。正如我們所討論的，這不是一朝一夕就能完成的事。這些供應鏈已經建立了幾十年。但我們一直在與中國供應商合作。我們的採購組織積極尋找替代供應。我們將在 2025 年爭取大幅成長。

And then we obviously have plans identified for '26 and '27. The list gets harder and harder as we get lower and lower into the components that we would be going after. And that's what we're going to be focused on. I would say that we have relative to the rest of the power sports industry up and to this point, been incredibly disadvantaged.

然後我們顯然已經確定了 26 和 27 年的計劃。隨著我們越來越深入地了解我們要追求的組件，這個清單變得越來越難。這就是我們要關注的重點。我想說的是，相對於其他力量運動產業，到目前為止，我們處於極其不利的地位。

We're the only US manufacturer yet we're the only ones paying tariffs. Some of our competitors, 3 of them specifically have pretty heavy manufacturing bases down in Mexico. And obviously, we would be impacted, but they would be more impacted, some of which have almost all their manufacturing coming out of Mexico. So it's a volatile environment. We're going to stay focused on the things that we can control as it relates to how much we're procuring out of China. And we're going to do what we can to help influence policy where appropriate.

我們是唯一的美國製造商，但我們也是唯一支付關稅的製造商。我們的一些競爭對手，其中 3 家在墨西哥擁有相當龐大的製造基地。顯然，我們會受到影響，但他們會受到更大的影響，其中一些公司幾乎所有的製造都來自墨西哥。所以這是一個不穩定的環境。我們將繼續關注我們可以控制的事情，因為這關係到我們從中國採購的數量。我們將盡我們所能，在適當的時候幫助影響政策。

Craig Kennison with Baird.

克雷格·肯尼森與貝爾德。

I was hoping to follow up on the tariff topic and then also the dividend. But with respect to tariffs, Mike, and the last point that you made, do you have a sympathetic ear in Washington that appreciates frankly, that you build more units in the US and also pay the highest tariff. It just feels like whatever policy is -- editorial line, but whatever policy they're aiming for feels to be missing the mark and powersports in a fairly big way. And I'm wondering if you have a sympathetic ear there.

我希望跟進關稅話題，然後是股息。但關於關稅，麥克，以及你提出的最後一點，華盛頓是否有同情心，坦率地讚賞你在美國建造了更多的單位，並支付了最高的關稅。感覺就像無論政策是什麼——社論路線，但無論他們的目標是什麼政策，感覺都在很大程度上偏離了目標和動力運動。我想知道你是否有同情心的耳朵。

Yes and no. We were successful during Trump's first administration. If you remember, we got a pretty considerable list of exemptions. But the exemptions were short-lived. So yes, they were sympathetic, they listened, but the message at the end was get out of China. And they gave us some time, although it was not anywhere near as much as we would need -- the reality is we're kind of going at it alone because the rest of our industry is not facing some of these same challenges.

是和不是。我們在川普第一屆政府期間取得了成功。如果您還記得的話，我們有相當多的豁免清單。但豁免是短暫的。所以，是的，他們很同情，他們傾聽，但最後的訊息是滾出中國。他們給了我們一些時間，儘管它遠遠沒有達到我們所需的時間——現實是我們只能獨自應對，因為我們行業的其他公司並沒有面臨一些相同的挑戰。

We did make the point loud and clear that we are the only American power sports company, and we are the ones being disadvantaged, both against the Japanese as well as the Canadian competitors and Chinese. There's new players involved, but there's still some consistent ones that will be there. We have attempted to make some inroads, but they are not at a point where they're willing to engage with industry at all. As you can see from Trump's first week in office, he's had a number of priorities that have been largely outside of this. But when we have the opportunity, we'll continue to fight the good fight. And for now, we're just going to run the business. And as I said multiple times, control what we can control.

我們確實大聲而明確地表明了這一點：我們是唯一一家美國動力運動公司，而我們在與日本、加拿大競爭對手和中國的競爭中處於不利地位。雖然有新的參與者加入，但仍會有一些穩定的參與者。我們試圖取得一些進展，但他們還沒有達到願意與產業合作的程度。從川普上任第一週就可以看出，他的許多優先事項基本上都在這之外。但當我們有機會時，我們將繼續為正義而戰。現在，我們只負責經營業務。正如我多次說過的，控制我們能控制的事。

Yes. I think, Craig, we have to sort of focus on the positives of we have a really good balanced footprint. We have production in Mexico in the United States in 2 facilities for Off-Road and then, obviously, others for Marine and motorcycles and then another Off-road plant in Poland. So we've got a pretty balanced footprint, which is a little bit different than other players in the industry, and you can't leverage that immediately to move things. But I think we're well set up for the long term. And as Mike said, we'll continue to push that issue with regulators around how the industry actually works.

是的。我認為，克雷格，我們必須專注於我們擁有非常良好的平衡足跡的積極因素。我們在美國墨西哥的 2 個越野工廠進行生產，當然還有其他工廠用於船舶和摩托車，然後是波蘭的另一個越野工廠。因此，我們的足跡相當平衡，這與行業中的其他參與者有點不同，你不能立即利用它來移動事物。但我認為我們已經為長期做好了準備。正如麥克所說，我們將繼續圍繞該行業的實際運作方式向監管機構提出這個問題。

Yes. I'm wondering, Bob, maybe on the dividend. I know it's important to you. You've got the Aristocrat status. But if I look, I mean earnings are going to be well under half of the dividend payment in '25. So maybe just help us bridge that gap and help us understand the levers you can pull to generate the cash to get to your 30th consecutive year of dividend growth.

是的。鮑勃，我想知道也許是關於股息。我知道這對你很重要。你已經獲得了貴族身份。但如果我看一下，我的意思是收益將遠低於 25 年股息支付的一半。因此，也許只需幫助我們彌補這一差距，並幫助我們了解您可以利用哪些槓桿來產生現金，以實現連續 30 年的股息成長。

Sure. Yes. Look, I think as we talked about earlier, I think we feel good about our free cash flow for 2025. Obviously, we have looked at the dividend the yield is pretty attractive right now for investors. And as Mike and I were on the road, I guess, late November, early December, we got a lot of feedback from some newer investors that they were looking for their entry point or found their entry point and they liked the dividend yield because they felt like it gave them protection and a good stream of income while we're waiting for the industry to recover. So we didn't want to make a sudden change. We believe this is short term in nature. We got through the dealer inventory, the bulk of it in 2024.

當然。是的。看，我認為正如我們之前談到的，我認為我們對 2025 年的自由現金流感覺良好。顯然，我們已經研究了股息殖利率，目前對投資人來說相當有吸引力。當麥克和我在路上時，我想，11 月底、12 月初，我們從一些新投資者那裡得到了很多反饋，他們正在尋找或找到了切入點，他們喜歡股息收益率，因為他們在我們等待行業復甦的同時，感覺這給了他們保護和良好的收入來源。所以我們不想突然改變。我們認為這本質上是短期的。我們在 2024 年清理掉了經銷商的庫存，其中大部分。

Obviously, we'll have to manage a little bit depending on what happens in the market in '25. In '25, we're dealing with the knock-on effect of that with our build being lower than our ship to get dealer -- to get finished goods inventory right and drive cash. And we feel like it makes sense to use that cash to continue to pay the dividend because we do see, as Mike said, customers are still writing their products. We're not seeing people leave the industry. We're not seeing a lot of used products in the market. So it's not that people aren't writing.

顯然，我們必須根據 25 年市場的情況進行一些管理。在 25 年，我們正在應對由此產生的連鎖反應，因為我們的建造低於我們的船舶以獲得經銷商 - 以獲得正確的成品庫存並增加現金。我們認為使用這些現金繼續支付股息是有意義的，因為正如麥克所說，我們確實看到客戶仍在編寫他們的產品。我們沒有看到人們離開這個行業。我們在市場上沒有看到很多二手產品。所以這並不是說人們不寫作。

It's just this delayed replacement cycle, particularly in the recreational focused products. And we think that's going to continue to get better as consumers work through their balance sheets over the next couple of years. And so we don't want to make a sudden change to the dividend that then sort of is a takes us off the track we've been on for a long time based on a 1-year dynamic, which is similar to the decision we got during COVID. We felt like that was short term. And unlike a lot of companies, we continued our dividend and that turned out to be the right decision. So that's where we are here, too.

只是這種延遲的更換週期，特別是在以娛樂為重點的產品。我們認為，隨著消費者在未來幾年內整理他們的資產負債表，這種情況將會繼續變得更好。因此，我們不想突然改變股息，這會讓我們偏離長期以來基於一年動態的軌道，這類似於我們的決定在新冠肺炎期間所得到的。我們覺得那是短期的。與許多公司不同的是，我們繼續派發股息，事實證明這是正確的決定。這就是我們現在的處境。

The next question will come from [Megan Claff] with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的[梅根·克拉夫]。

I wanted to jump back to the EPS guidance. So Bob, I think it was in your prepared remarks, you said that the various cost headwinds you talked about where you said incentive comp volume mix absorption were around $3 in earnings. Is there any way to quantify of those headwinds? And of that $3, what is more short term or transitory in nature. It seems like the absorption just given all the commentary around finished goods inventory and production not necessarily turning on immediately when shipments pick up is the biggest driver, but any sort of contextualizing around what's transitory or structural in nature would be helpful.

我想跳回 EPS 指導。所以鮑勃，我認為在你準備好的演講中，你提到了你所談到的各種成本阻力，你所說的激勵補償量混合吸收的收益約為 3 美元。有什麼方法可以量化這些不利因素嗎？而這 3 美元中，哪一個比較短期或本質上是暫時的。考慮到所有關於成品庫存和生產的評論，吸收似乎不一定在發貨量增加時立即啟動是最大的驅動力，但任何圍繞暫時性或結構性本質的背景都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean that's a deep question. Let me break it into a couple of pieces. As Mike said, a very large chunk of it, if you took out profit share, returning the profit share and things to a normal level. And then FX, you would have effectively gotten the $3.25 we made this year down to roughly $1.70. So when you proceed from there, I mean, I think the big things there's volume and mix. We've talked about we'll be down $100 million in revenue. Mix is negative, again, because we did ship a fair number of XDs, expeditions and Ranger North Stars into the channel in the early part of '24.

是的。我的意思是這是一個很深奧的問題。讓我把它分成幾個部分。正如麥克所說，其中很大一部分，如果你拿出利潤分成，將利潤分成和其他事情恢復到正​​常水平。然後是外匯，我們今年賺的 3.25 美元實際上會下降到大約 1.70 美元。所以當你從那裡開始時，我的意思是，我認為最重要的是數量和混合。我們已經討論過我們的收入將減少 1 億美元。混合再次是負面的，因為我們確實在 24 年初將相當數量的 XD、探險隊和 Ranger North Stars 運送到了頻道中。

Now we'll be shipping more to retail because we don't have to build any inventory. So that's probably the next largest chunk after the profit sharing stuff. Volume is a little bit of a smaller impact. The plant deleverage is mostly offset with other cost improvements at the plants. And then the other big items are really just price and promo. We think we are taking a little bit of price this year, which we haven't done in a couple of years, been very selective price increases as we models. And also, there's some kind of carryover benefit from promo. Obviously, as we were working to clear our side of the channel, we had elevated promo on certain models. Some of that won't repeat now that we've cleared the channel.

現在我們將向零售業運送更多產品，因為我們不需要建立任何庫存。所以這可能是利潤分享之後的下一個最大部分。體積影響稍微小一些。工廠的去槓桿化大部分被工廠的其他成本改善所抵銷。然後其他大項目實際上只是價格和促銷。我們認為今年我們會採取一點價格上漲，這是我們幾年來沒有做過的，在我們建模時是非常有選擇性的價格上漲。而且，促銷還有某種結轉效益。顯然，當我們努力清理管道時，我們提高了某些型號的促銷。既然我們已經清理了頻道，其中一些就不會再重複了。

I don't think the promotional environment is going to change a whole lot. It's been relatively aggressive, at least don't think at least in the first half of the year. that will continue. The other big kind of negative, and it's a negative and a positive is our earnings from financial services will be down, and a lot of that is driven by our earnings from PA. And players acceptance, our wholesale finance JV. And the reason the earnings are down is that the dealer inventory balances are down, and so the amount of dealer interest paid to the JV is down. And that's something we wanted to see, but that's a $0.20-plus headwind from an EPS perspective in the year also.

我認為促銷環境不會有太大變化。相對來說比較激進，至少上半年不這麼認為。這將繼續下去。另一個重大的負面影響是，我們從金融服務業獲得的收入將會下降，這在很大程度上是由我們的 PA 收入所驅動的。和玩家的認可，我們的批發金融合資企業。獲利下降的原因是經銷商庫存餘額下降，因此經銷商支付給合資企業的利息也下降了。這是我們希望看到的，但從今年每股收益的角度來看，這也是 0.20 美元以上的阻力。

Megan, the other thing I'd maybe put a little bit more context is, obviously, as we refund the profit sharing incentive plan, I don't want to say that, that number doesn't really move upward. It can move up a little bit if performance is better, but the performance has to fund obviously an incremental payment, but it's capped at a certain level, right? So almost view it as a cost base that you can leverage off of -- the other thing is, obviously, we're not going to be spending a lot on share repurchase in the near term. So as you come out of this and we start to improve earnings, you've got the ability to get back to share repurchase and drive that share count number down.

梅根，我可能會多講一點背景的另一件事是，顯然，當我們退還利潤分享激勵計劃時，我不想說，這個數字並沒有真正上升。如果業績好一點的話，可以上調一點，但業績顯然必須為增量付款提供資金，但上限是一定的，對吧？因此，幾乎可以將其視為可以利用的成本基礎——另一件事是，顯然，我們短期內不會在股票回購上花費太多。因此，當您走出困境並且我們開始提高收益時，您就有能力重新回購股票並減少股票數量。

And then the last thing is we're going to be pivoting here in the near term to paying debt down. And obviously, as we come out of this with improved cash flows and we drive that debt level down, that drives the interest cost down. So I think when you take all that and you couple it with what we've done to our fixed cost structure, we took almost 10% of our salaried workforce out last year, and it was oriented at the higher level of the company. were the heaviest impacted because we restructured to simplify the business. And you combine that with the lean work that we're doing in our factories. I mean, you can really see where we can get a lot of leverage out of this business on a little bit of growth when we get to a point that the industry has recovered.

最後一件事是我們將在短期內轉向償還債務。顯然，當我們擺脫困境並改善現金流量並降低債務水準時，就會降低利息成本。所以我認為，當你把所有這些與我們對固定成本結構所做的結合起來時，我們去年裁掉了近 10% 的受薪員工，而且是面向公司高層的。受到的影響最嚴重，因為我們進行了重組以簡化業務。然後將其與我們在工廠進行的精益工作結合起來。我的意思是，當我們行業已經復甦時，你真的可以看到我們可以透過一點點成長從這項業務中獲得很大的槓桿作用。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then I'm sorry to ask another tariff question. But Mike, you gave a lot of numbers there in terms of your exposure. I think I kind of added up to maybe $1.5 billion of COGS that could be at risk between Mexico and China. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you do even 10%. I know our President's talked about 25%. So you do the math there, that would be a really large headwind. So again, I understand you don't really want to theorize on what would happen. But in that kind of scenario, if we're doing the math right, what would be the strategy? Would you kind of look to price, is there an ability to pull some of the supply from Mexico into your plants in the US, understanding that would probably be at a higher per unit cost too. But just trying to kind of understand what the strategy would be, given it does seem like it could be a big number.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我很抱歉問另一個關稅問題。但是麥克，你在曝光方面給了很多數字。我認為墨西哥和中國之間可能面臨 15 億美元的 COGS 風險。如果我錯了請糾正我，但你甚至只做了10%。我知道我們的總統談到了 25%。所以你在那裡進行數學計算，這將是一個非常大的阻力。再說一次，我理解你並不是真的想對會發生什麼事進行理論分析。但在這種情況下，如果我們計算正確，策略是什麼？您是否會考慮價格，是否有能力將部分供應從墨西哥拉到您在美國的工廠，並了解這可能會導致單位成本更高。但只是想了解策略是什麼，因為它看起來確實可能是一個很大的數字。

Yes. I think first and foremost, I mean, if that were to happen, I think we as American Systems would have bigger issues in front of us because I think there would be a larger economic implication given the trade flows between Mexico and the US and even between the US and Canada. So I think there's going to be a tempered approach is my guess, and I think it's going to be very specific and there's going to be negotiations. I think you saw that play out with the President of Columbia relative to immigration.

是的。我認為首先也是最重要的是，如果發生這種情況，我認為我們作為美國系統公司將面臨更大的問題，因為我認為考慮到墨西哥和美國之間的貿易流動，甚至會產生更大的經濟影響美國和加拿大之間。因此，我認為將會有一種溫和的方法，我認為這將是非常具體的，並且將會進行談判。我想你已經看到了哥倫比亞總統在移民議題上的表現。

So that's what I'm hopeful for, but -- if we get to a point where it's a reality, as Bob pointed out, I mean, we've got the most diversified footprint. And I'm not suggesting that we could flip a switch and move everything today. It would take time. But we do have a footprint. We have a presence that we would be able to leverage. If we view this as a more permanent situation that we needed to move content back into the US, we certainly have footprint. But I think we're a long, long way from being at that point.

這就是我所希望的，但是，如果我們達到了現實，正如鮑勃所指出的那樣，我的意思是，我們已經擁有了最多元化的足跡。我並不是建議我們今天就可以打開開關並移動所有內容。這需要時間。但我們確實有足跡。我們擁有可以利用的存在。如果我們認為這是一種更持久的情況，我們需要將內容移回美國，那麼我們肯定有足跡。但我認為我們距離那個時刻還有很長很長的路要走。

Trump understands how the economics work, the automotive, the appliance industry, agriculture, power sports, obviously, everything has a heavy presence in Mexico. I think he'll probably use some short-term tactics to get an earlier bite at negotiating on USMCA as well as driving some of the other things around immigration and drugs and those types of things to get them higher up on the agenda. But they're an important trading partner, important part of the US economy. And I just don't see us doing anything that impairs that long term.

川普了解經濟是如何運作的，汽車、家電工業、農業、電力體育，顯然，一切都在墨西哥佔有重要地位。我認為他可能會使用一些短期策略來更早參與美墨加協定的談判，並推動有關移民和毒品等問題的其他一些問題，使它們在議程上得到更高的地位。但它們是重要的貿易夥伴，也是美國經濟的重要組成部分。我只是不認為我們會做任何損害長期利益的事情。

Stephen McGregor with David McGregor.

史蒂芬·麥格雷戈和大衛·麥格雷戈。

Yes. I guess I wanted to just drilling a little bit around the discussion on incremental margins. And you highlighted with the progress that's being made is always not really visible, I guess, given the absorption issues. But you've been quite a bit of progress made on incremental margins. Can you just open that up a little bit for us and give us some context for what we should expect in the recovery phase of the cycle.

是的。我想我只是想圍繞著增量利潤的討論進行一些探討。我想，考慮到吸收問題，您強調所取得的進展總是不太明顯。但你在增量利潤方面已經取得了相當大的進步。您能否為我們介紹一下這個問題，並為我們提供一些背景信息，讓我們了解在周期的恢復階段我們應該期待什麼。

Yes. I mean it's going to depend obviously where the volume comes back in the products. But we have taken a substantial amount of indirect and salaried cost out of the plants. To Mike's point, we've done the same at the corporate level with the reductions we had in salaried head count of about 10% last year. So I think we'll see incremental EBITDA margins in the 30% range if we start to see volume come back. And then to Mike's point, you -- in addition to the sort of leverage on the manufacturing, the profit share is -- it's not fixed, but it's relatively fixed. It will only go higher incrementally if earnings are well above targets. And then interest is sort of at a flat base right now, and we're going to continue to work that down. So you'll see even greater leverage on the EPS side than you will on the EBITDA side as things start to recover.

是的。我的意思是，這顯然取決於產品的銷售量。但我們已經從工廠中扣除了大量的間接成本和工資成本。就麥克而言，我們在公司層級也做了同樣的事情，去年我們的受薪員工人數減少了約 10%。因此，我認為，如果我們開始看到銷售回升，我們將看到 EBITDA 利潤率增量在 30% 範圍內。然後麥克的觀點是，除了對製造業的槓桿作用之外，利潤份額也不是固定的，但相對固定。如果收益遠高於目標，它只會逐步走高。目前興趣基本上持平，我們將繼續努力降低這一點。因此，隨著情況開始復甦，您將看到 EPS 方面的槓桿作用比 EBITDA 方面的槓桿作用更大。

Got it. And then just within your guidance, can you talk about how far into the year, you're assuming the production curtailments extend obviously, a first quarter issue you discussed that already, but are you contemplating that extending through 2Q? Or how should we think about that?

知道了。然後，在您的指導範圍內，您能否談談您假設產量削減明顯延長到今年多長時間，您已經討論過第一季度的問題，但您是否正在考慮將其延長到第二季度？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. So the way the build, we're going to ship more than we build this year and as to take down finished goods. It will be more pronounced in the first half, but it will continue through because we're not trying to shake the system too much. We've got to still maintain level production down the lines that we're still running. We've been working to take off second shifts and rebalance lines for slower flow rates to account for the lower volumes.

是的。因此，就建造方式而言，我們的出貨量將超過今年的建造量，並減少成品。這種情況在上半場會更加明顯，但會持續下去，因為我們並不想太多地動搖系統。我們必須在仍在運行的生產線上保持水平生產。我們一直在努力取消第二班並重新平衡生產線，以降低流速，以應對產量下降的情況。

So we're not trying to upset the whole system and do it all in the first quarter. And I would say it's most pronounced in the first quarter, and it will continue into Q3, but at lower levels. And some of that, too, is no. because snow we only build certain times of the year, and we are taking a big production cut in snow just given the lack of snowfall 2 years in a row to drive down dealer inventory. So that's part of what that drives the dynamic into the back half of the year.

因此，我們並不想擾亂整個系統並在第一季完成這一切。我想說，這種情況在第一季最為明顯，並將持續到第三季度，但水平較低。其中一些也不是。因為下雪，我們只在一年中的特定時間建造，並且由於連續兩年缺乏降雪，我們正在大幅削減雪地產量，以壓低經銷商庫存。因此，這是推動下半年經濟發展的部分原因。

Your next question will come from James Hardiman with Citi.

您的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So just focusing on the critical ORV segment. Inventories were down 16% to finish the year, which was in line with what you had targeted. Any way to help us out with that -- the numbers on a -- from a terms perspective -- and then as we move forward from here, I guess I'm a little unclear as to whether or not the job is done there. Should we expect wholesale to equal retail in 2025? And if not, how much further should we expect that to come down?

因此，只需關注關鍵的 ORV 部分。年底庫存下降了 16%，符合您的目標。有什麼方法可以幫助我們解決這個問題——從術語的角度來看——然後當我們從這裡繼續前進時，我想我有點不清楚這項工作是否已經完成。我們是否應該預期 2025 年批發市場與零售市場持平？如果不是，我們預計這數字還會下降多少？

Yes, James. From a DSO standpoint, think of the number of hover somewhere around [100], obviously, well below where we've been historically. So really proud of the work the team did and for the patients our dealers had to work through that. We led the industry as we look at all the metrics around current versus noncurrent days of supply. So I feel really good about that. I think we set the right tone and hopefully, others will follow.

是的，詹姆斯。從 DSO 的角度來看，懸停次數在 [100] 左右，顯然遠低於我們歷史上的水準。對於團隊所做的工作以及我們的經銷商必須為患者解決的問題感到非常自豪。當我們考慮當前與非當前供應天數的所有指標時，我們處於行業領先地位。所以我對此感覺很好。我認為我們定下了正確的基調，希望其他人也會跟著做。

From an inventory standpoint, the 2 biggest areas we've got left to work on are really snow, which, obviously, we couldn't see until we were in the middle of it in December, January. And we're going to contend with that through the year. And then we've got a little bit more work to do from a marine standpoint. I mean we've been making huge cuts, so that's nothing that the team didn't work hard to do. It's just, as you guys saw in the boat note, marine continued to weaken through the fourth quarter. And so there's a little bit more that we have to do there.

從庫存的角度來看，我們剩下的兩個最大的工作區域實際上是雪，顯然，直到 12 月和 1 月中旬我們才看到雪。我們將全年應對這一問題。從海洋的角度來看，我們還有更多的工作要做。我的意思是我們一直在進行大幅削減，所以團隊沒有不努力做到這一點。只是，正如你們在船注中看到的那樣，海事在第四季度繼續疲軟。因此，我們還需要做更多的事情。

Within ORV in aggregate, we're pretty good. the issue is we've got some buckets where we think the rec side is going to continue to be weak. So there's going to be more to do. And as you know, the way the whole inventory works is as you're dealing with declining markets, you've got to take out kind of on a ratio of 1.25 to 1.5 units of inventory to retail because you're trying to pull the inventory down on a forward basis and account for a declining retail market.

總的來說，在 ORV 中，我們相當不錯。問題是，我們認為在某些方面，rec 方面將繼續疲軟。所以還有更多的事情要做。如您所知，整個庫存的運作方式是，當您應對不斷下滑的市場時，您必須以 1.25 至 1.5 單位的庫存與零售的比率進行淘汰，因為您正試圖拉動庫存。零售市場下滑。

So there's a little bit more to do in those markets, and we've committed to the dealers that we're going to watch the rec side and make sure that we're adjusting shipments down -- that said, on the utility side, we see some pockets of opportunities where they could use a little bit more inventory. And so we'll be very surgical in the way we do that. But I would view ORV as largely just kind of more tweaks nothing order of magnitude on the scale of what we had to contend with this past year.

因此，在這些市場上還有更多的工作要做，我們已向經銷商承諾，我們將專注於銷售方面，並確保我們正在調整出貨量——也就是說，在公用事業方面，我們看到了一些他們可以使用更多庫存的機會。因此，我們的做法將非常嚴格。但我認為 ORV 在很大程度上只是一種更多的調整，與我們去年必須應對的規模相比沒有什麼數量級。

Got it. And then obviously, this is going to be a pretty lean year in terms of financial performance. I just want to make sure that were good from a debt perspective. I think you have a couple of covenants, interest coverage and a leverage ratio covenant -- maybe help us with the math there. It seems like those could potentially be in jeopardy. Is there an opportunity to renegotiate some of those credit agreements? Or am I just looking at that the wrong way?

知道了。顯然，就財務表現而言，今年將是相當慘淡的一年。我只是想確保從債務角度來看這是好的。我認為你有幾個契約，利息覆蓋率和槓桿率契約——也許可以幫助我們進行數學計算。看來這些可能面臨危險。是否有機會重新談判其中一些信貸協議？或者我只是以錯誤的方式看待這個問題？

Yes. I mean, so we did renegotiate those credit agreements in the fourth quarter. And obviously, our forecast was evolving, but we did take that into account. And so we harmonized the EBITDA coverage between the private notes and the credit facility, which gave us more room in the private notes because they had historically been a lower coverage ratio. And then we changed from an EBIT interest coverage ratio to an EBITDA interest coverage ratio. And so we feel like we will be okay with those going through 2025.

是的。我的意思是，我們確實在第四季度重新談判了這些信貸協議。顯然，我們的預測正在不斷發展，但我們確實考慮到了這一點。因此，我們協調了私人票據和信貸安排之間的 EBITDA 覆蓋率，這給了我們更多的私人票據空間，因為它們歷來覆蓋率較低。然後我們從 EBIT 利息保障倍數改為 EBITDA 利息保障倍數。所以我們覺得我們不會介意那些經歷 2025 年的人。

From the way we've looked at how orders unfold. But obviously, we maintain a great relationship with our bank group, which is what allowed us to be able to refinance the debt in the fourth quarter and reset that credit facility going through 2029. It's also why we're focused on debt pay downs to try to give ourselves more room -- and so we're aware of it. We don't see that being an issue. Obviously, if it -- the industry changed and was dramatically different than what we think will work with our bank group, which we've historically not had any issue being able to work through challenges during times like COVID and the sort of things that have happened over the last year. So I feel good about where we are, and the team has done a nice job getting us set up better than we were prior to the renegotiation in Q4.

從我們觀察訂單如何展開的方式來看。但顯然，我們與銀行集團保持著良好的關係，這使我們能夠在第四季度為債務進行再融資，並在 2029 年之前重置信貸安排。這也是為什麼我們專注於償還債務，試圖給自己更多的空間——所以我們意識到了這一點。我們不認為這是一個問題。顯然，如果行業發生了變化，並且與我們認為將與我們的銀行集團合作的方式有很大不同，我們在歷史上沒有遇到任何問題，能夠在像新冠肺炎這樣的時期應對挑戰。去年。因此，我對我們的處境感到滿意，團隊做得很好，讓我們的設置比第四季度重新談判之前更好。

I mean, James, we -- fortunately, we have a fair number of the same bank group lender group and management team that were here during the early parts of COVID where we did it very similar. We got out ahead of what we saw as a potential issue and started renegotiating. And so I give Bob and the team a lot of credit for proactively working to mitigate the risk. And I think if you step back and look at the rest of our industry, there's a number of folks out there struggling pretty mightily right now. And knock on some wood, I think we've tried to gear the business appropriately steer through some of the choppy water and -- now hopefully, we've got everything set up for when that recovery starts in the industry, I think we'll be in a really good position to take advantage of that.

我的意思是，詹姆斯，幸運的是，我們有相當多的銀行集團貸款機構和管理團隊，他們在新冠肺炎疫情初期就在這裡，我們的做法非常相似。我們提前解決了我們認為存在的潛在問題並開始重新談判。因此，我對鮑伯和他的團隊積極主動地降低風險的行為表示高度讚揚。我認為，如果你退後一步，看看我們行業的其他部分，你會發現現在有很多人正在苦苦掙扎。敲敲木頭，我認為我們已經嘗試讓業務適當地調整，渡過一些波濤洶湧的水域，現在希望我們已經為行業開始復蘇時做好了一切準備，我認為我們'將處於一個非常有利的位置來利用這一點。

Can you guys share those updated covenants just -- I mean, obviously, tariffs are pretty big sweat factor. So just -- or at least point us in the right direction where those might be.

你們能否分享一下這些更新後的契約——我的意思是，顯然，關稅是一個相當大的因素。所以，或至少為我們指出了正確的方向。

So James, I don't want you guys to think that we had tariffs as part of that conversation. Nothing's happened yet, so there's nothing to talk about with the banks. Obviously, if we get down that path, we'll have to go back and have some of those conversations with them. Because you could model tariffs about 95 different permutations at this point. And there's just no point in having that discussion with them until we know what we're dealing with.

所以詹姆斯，我不希望你們認為我們在談話中涉及關稅。目前還沒有發生任何事情，所以沒有什麼可與銀行討論的。顯然，如果我們走這條路，我們就必須回去與他們進行一些對話。因為此時您可以對大約 95 種不同排列的關稅進行建模。在我們知道我們正在處理什麼之前，與他們進行討論是沒有意義的。

Yes. I mean they're both 3.5x coverage, both of the 2 major covenants, but all the details around how the calculations actually are done or -- in all the debt filings that we have already published.

是的。我的意思是，它們都是 3.5 倍的覆蓋率，都是 2 個主要契約，但所有關於實際計算方式的細節，或者——在我們已經發布的所有債務文件中。

Tristan Thomas-Martin with BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場的特里斯坦·托馬斯·馬丁。

Just a point of clarification quickly. I think you said powers -- overall powersports retail for the industry down low single digits in 2025. Is that right? And if so, what does that imply for off-road vehicle, I think you said motorcycles marine and snow down?

只是快速澄清一點。我想你說的是動力——到 2025 年，該行業的整體動力運動零售量將下降到低個位數。是這樣嗎？如果是這樣，這對越野車意味著什麼，我想你說的是摩托車海洋和雪地？

Yes. I mean we're not going to sit here and try and prognosticate about every element of the industry. But I think you're going to see more stability in off-road given the utility component. It's much larger than the rec components within ORV. And then obviously, motorcycles, boats, those areas we think are going to continue to be down from an industry standpoint.

是的。我的意思是，我們不會坐在這裡嘗試對產業的每個要素進行預測。但我認為考慮到實用組件，你會在越野中看到更多的穩定性。它比 ORV 內的 rec 組件大得多。顯然，從產業的角度來看，摩托車、船舶等我們認為將繼續下滑的領域。

Okay. Just on Marine specifically, I think you called out early season boat shows being positive. So are we just assuming it's going to weaken old bit as we produce though the year, maybe it shows here a little bit of a head fake.

好的。就海軍陸戰隊而言，我認為您認為早期的船展是積極的。那麼，我們是否只是假設隨著我們今年的生產，它會削弱舊的部分，也許它在這裡顯示出一點假象。

Could you repeat that? It's a little quiet on our end. We couldn't quite capitalize.

你能再說一次嗎？我們這邊有點安靜。我們無法充分利用。

Yes. Just trying to square early season boat shows being positive versus Marine retail being down for the year.

是的。只是試圖平衡早期船展的積極性與今年船舶零售業的下滑之間的關係。

Yes. I think we're -- look, when we say positive, it's more -- it's a sentiment-driven thing. So we've got a lot of new innovation in the market, particularly with Bennington and Hurricane. The reaction of dealers from the dealer show and then customers at the boat shows that we've seen have been good. People like the product. We think interest has been good at the boat shows. I mean, attendance at boat shows has been a little bouncy Atlanta, obviously, they had snow, which is not conducive to getting good attendance at a boat show. And this cold snap probably hasn't helped some of the southern boat shows, either Minneapolis seems pretty good. I haven't gotten final numbers yet.

是的。我認為我們——看，當我們說積極的時候，更多的是——這是一種情緒驅動的事情。因此，我們在市場上有許多新的創新，特別是 Bennington 和 Hurricane。我們看到，經銷商展會上的經銷商以及船展上的客戶的反應都很好。人們喜歡這個產品。我們認為人們對遊艇展的興趣很高。我的意思是，亞特蘭大遊艇展的出席率有點高，顯然，他們下了雪，這不利於獲得良好的遊艇展出席率。這場寒流可能對一些南方船展沒有幫助，明尼阿波利斯似乎也不錯。我還沒有得到最終的數字。

But -- so I think we're seeing positive sentiment from consumers in terms of their interest in the boats. I think we're just being cautious around whether that turns into stronger retail. We do feel like we've got some opportunity to take share this year in Marine because we do have a lot of innovation in the market, a lot of really new product. and we'll be focused on that. And I think the industry itself is probably going to be down a little bit. I don't know that it will be a continued double-digit down like it was in '24, but I think I don't see a massive recovery coming either in Marine in '25.

但是——所以我認為我們看到消費者對船隻的興趣表現出了積極的情緒。我認為我們只是對這是否會帶來更強勁的零售業持謹慎態度。我們確實覺得今年我們有機會在海洋領域佔據份額，因為我們在市場上確實有很多創新，有很多真正的新產品。我們將重點關注這一點。我認為這個行業本身可能會略有下滑。我不知道它會像 24 年那樣持續兩位數下降，但我認為我認為 25 年海軍陸戰隊也不會出現大規模復甦。

Okay. If I could sneak 1 more in really quick. Just on the off-road vehicle side. Is there any thoughts to maybe continuing to go even lower either through mix shift or kind of pricing on the affordability spectrum just to kind of offset some of the headwinds to the consumer?

好的。如果我能很快再偷偷溜進去就好了。就在越野車一側。是否有任何想法可能會透過混合轉變或在可承受範圍內進行定價來繼續降低價格，以抵消消費者面臨的一些不利因素？

Yes. I mean, I kind of tip my hat to it a little bit in the script. I mean it's been an area we've been focused on. And if you step back and look, I mean, india Motorcycles with the Scout 60, that's really more about getting a bike that's sub-$10,000. You look at what Bennington did with the SV lineup completely refreshed. That's really an entry level for the pontoon. And we're focused from an offer vehicle standpoint in a couple of different areas.

是的。我的意思是，我在劇本中有點向它致敬。我的意思是，這是我們一直在關注的領域。如果你退後一步看看，我的意思是，印度的 Scout 60 摩托車，這實際上更多的是購買一輛價格低於 10,000 美元的自行車。你看看貝寧頓對 SV 陣容進行了徹底更新後所做的事情。這確實是浮橋的入門級。從提供車輛的角度來看，我們專注於幾個不同的領域。

And I think you'll see us making moves later in the year. It's an area that is an incredibly important entry point for consumers. And when you're in more stressed economic times like this, it's important to make sure that we still have an attractive lineup of products to bring customers in because we know that whether they come in through a value ranger or a trail razor or through an ATV. They tend to stick with the brand and we can move them on up through the category. So I think it gives you a pretty good idea where we're thinking we need to head.

我想你會在今年晚些時候看到我們採取行動。對消費者來說，這個領域是一個非常重要的切入點。當您處於像這樣更加緊張的經濟時期時，重要的是要確保我們仍然擁有有吸引力的產品陣容來吸引客戶，因為我們知道他們是否通過價值護林員或林道剃須刀或通過亞視。他們傾向於堅持品牌，我們可以將他們提升到品類中。所以我認為這讓你對我們需要走向何方有一個很好的了解。

Robin Farley with UBS.

瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

I wanted to ask about your -- the US dealer footprint. It seems like even at higher volumes than this, even at the volumes you have an out that there was a fair amount of dealer overlap. Is there any thought to maybe having a smaller dealer footprint?

我想問你們的美國經銷商足跡。看起來即使在比這更高的交易量下，即使在交易量上你也可以看出存在相當多的經銷商重疊。有沒有想過縮小經銷商規模？

Yes, Robin, we've -- starting a few years ago, we've been really actively working what the optimal footprint is. The North Star program has gone a long way. And we have pulled the footprint down ever so slightly over the past few years, and we'll continue to work it with the optimal it's -- what I've told the team and I think there's broad alignment.

是的，羅賓，從幾年前開始，我們一直在積極研究最佳足跡。北極星計畫已經取得了長足的進步。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經稍微縮小了足跡，我們將繼續以最佳狀態進行工作——我已經告訴團隊了，我認為這是廣泛的一致。

It's less about the number, it's about the coverage and whether we want to have individual points, which are vital, especially in some of the rural markets or look at contiguous rooftops where we have a dealer who has more presence across an MSA to be able to better manage inventory, provide really good customer service and the best customer experience and they come into the dealer. So I'm really happy with what the team has done. I think our dealers are in a good spot.

這與數量無關，而是與覆蓋範圍以及我們是否想要擁有單獨的積分有關，這一點至關重要，特別是在一些農村市場，或者看看我們有一個在MSA 中擁有更多影響力的經銷商的連續屋頂，以便能夠為了更好地管理庫存、提供真正良好的客戶服務和最佳的客戶體驗，他們來到了經銷商。所以我對團隊所做的事情感到非常滿意。我認為我們的經銷商處於有利地位。

One of our best weapons outside of innovation is our sales team. I just sat with our sales team last week and talked about priorities as we head into this year and reinforce to them that when we go out and talk to our dealers, the first thing out of their mouth is typically, we have the best sales team in the industry. And so we're really focused on not necessarily the count of dealers, but how we support them, making sure that they're running optimal.

除了創新之外，我們最好的武器之一就是我們的銷售團隊。上週我剛剛和我們的銷售團隊坐在一起，討論了今年的優先事項，並向他們強調，當我們出去與經銷商交談時，他們嘴裡說的第一句話通常是，我們擁有最好的銷售團隊在業界。因此，我們真正關注的不一定是經銷商的數量，而是我們如何支持他們，確保他們以最佳狀態運作。

There's been some talk in the industry around our footprint. I just want to clarify some things. I mean we take a very sophisticated look at the footprint. Ours is larger. And certainly, that does create some points of overlap. But we work with an outside firm that advises all the major sort of retail companies to do a very scientific look at population relative to where our stores are, geographic issues like rivers and bridges and traffic patterns and where people will go and not go. So it's not an unsophisticated analysis, and we continue to work to optimize that. But there's been some discussion around the footprint and just because we have more than others, that that's the cause of the overlap and it's a much more sophisticated view than that.

業界對我們的足跡進行了一些討論。我只是想澄清一些事情。我的意思是我們對足跡進行了非常複雜的觀察。我們的更大。當然，這確實造成了一些重疊點。但我們與一家外部公司合作，該公司建議所有主要零售公司對我們商店所在位置的人口、河流、橋樑等地理問題、交通模式以及人們會去和不去的地方進行非常科學的研究。所以這不是一個簡單的分析，我們將繼續努力優化它。但圍繞足跡進行了一些討論，只是因為我們比其他人擁有更多，這就是重疊的原因，而且這是一個比這更複雜的觀點。

And lastly, it's a very small clarification just because you guys have given lots of color, and I really appreciate that. Just in terms of you mentioned the industry, you'd be expecting the industry to be down low single digits, especially because of snow and marine and motorcycle. And I think you said you be shipping flat ORV? And I know you said (inaudible) utility felt like would stabilize. Is -- was the bottom line, your expectation for retail for either yourself or for the industry for ORV in total to be slightly down? Or was that closer to flat maybe slightly down based on your comments.

最後，這是一個非常小的澄清，只是因為你們提供了很多顏色，我真的很感激。就您提到的行業而言，您預計該行業會出現低個位數下降，特別是由於雪、海洋和摩托車。我想你說過你要送扁平 ORV？我知道你說過（聽不清楚）效用感覺會穩定下來。底線是，您對您自己或整個行業的 ORV 零售總額的預期是否會略有下降？或者根據您的評論，是否接近持平，可能略有下降。

Yes. I mean we think ORV is going to be slightly down for the industry. And obviously, our effort -- our goal is going to be to hold share. I do think share will be bouncy as we go through the year as we continue to see some of these OEMs discounting certain products that are aged out in the channel. That -- hopefully, that will correct itself over the next couple of quarters, but we don't have perfect visibility into what they're sitting on. But yes, I think the industry will be down slightly on the ORV side.

是的。我的意思是，我們認為 ORV 對於該行業來說將會略有下降。顯然，我們的努力——我們的目標是保持份額。我確實認為，隨著這一年的發展，我們的市場份額將會增加，因為我們繼續看到一些原始設備製造商對通路中過時的某些產品進行折扣。希望這會在接下來的幾個季度內自行糾正，但我們無法完全了解他們所處的情況。但是，是的，我認為 ORV 方面的行業將會略有下降。

This concludes our question-and-answer session as well as our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

我們今天的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。