Polaris Inc (PII) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Polaris second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Polaris 2024 年第二季度收益電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to J.C. Weigelt. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給 J.C. Weigelt。請繼續。

Thank you, Rocco, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. I'm J.C. Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations at Polaris. Thank you for joining us for our 2024 second-quarter earnings call. We will reference a slide presentation today, which is accessible on our website at ir.polaris.com.

謝謝羅科，大家早安或下午好。我是 J.C. Weigelt，Polaris 投資者關係副總裁。感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天我們將參考幻燈片演示，您可以在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上存取該演示文稿。

Joining me today are Mike Speetzen, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Mack, our Chief Financial Officer. Both have prepared remarks summarizing the second quarter, as well as our expectations for the remainder of 2024. Then we'll take your questions.

今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Mike Speetzen；和我們的財務長鮑伯·麥克。兩人都準備了總結第二季的言論，以及我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的預期。然後我們將回答您的問題。

During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward-looking for the purpose of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2023 10-K for additional details regarding risks and uncertainties.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論各種主題，就 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》而言，這些主題應被視為具有前瞻性。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。您可以參閱我們的 2023 10-K，以了解有關風險和不確定性的更多詳細資訊。

All references to second-quarter actual results and 2024 guidance are for our continuing operations and are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of the presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments. Now I will turn it over to Mike Speetzen. Go ahead, Mike.

除非另有說明，所有對第二季實際業績和 2024 年指引的引用均適用於我們的持續經營業務，並按調整後的非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 基礎進行報告。請參閱簡報末尾的 Reg G 調整表，以了解 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整。現在我將把它交給 Mike Speetzen。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks, J.C., and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We saw an increasingly challenging environment in the second quarter, resulting in sales and adjusted EPS that came in below our expectations. We will take some time this morning to talk through those results, provide an update on our annual guidance, as well as discuss the outlook for our long-term 2026 targets considering the current environment.

謝謝，J.C.，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我們在第二季度看到了日益嚴峻的環境，導致銷售額和調整後每股收益低於我們的預期。今天上午，我們將花一些時間討論這些結果，提供年度指導的最新信息，並考慮當前環境，討論 2026 年長期目標的前景。

First, I want to start with the second-quarter results. Sales were down 12%, impacted by actions we took in response to macroeconomic and industry headwinds. These headwinds included persistent inflation in addition to a prolonged cycle with elevated interest rates. We have seen consumer confidence weaken, especially for larger discretionary purchases, and as a result, the industry has seen lower retail.

首先，我想從第二季的業績開始。受我們為應對宏觀經濟和行業逆風而採取的行動的影響，銷售額下降了 12%。這些不利因素包括持續的通貨膨脹以及利率上升的長期週期。我們看到消費者信心減弱，特別是對於較大規模的可自由支配購買，因此，該行業的零售量下降。

Additionally, dealers are conservatively managing their inventory due to the higher flooring costs driven by higher interest rates and are reducing orders accordingly. As we said at the start of the year, dealer inventory was our anchor, and if we saw softer retail than we expected, we would adjust shipments accordingly to help protect dealers.

此外，由於利率上升導致地板成本上升，經銷商正在保守地管理庫存，並相應減少訂單。正如我們年初所說，經銷商庫存是我們的支柱，如果我們看到零售比我們預期疲軟，我們將相應調整出貨量以幫助保護經銷商。

We started that process in Q2 and have now adjusted our full-year shipment outlook, given a lower outlook for retail. As a result, we have revised our full-year 2024 guidance down to reflect the current environment, as well as the counter actions we have taken to aggressively manage costs. While this is disappointing, it reflects a more challenging retail environment than we or the industry expected.

我們在第二季開始了這項流程，鑑於零售前景較低，現在調整了全年出貨量前景。因此，我們下調了 2024 年全年指引，以反映當前環境以及我們為積極管理成本所採取的應對措施。雖然這令人失望，但這反映出零售環境比我們或產業預期更具挑戰性。

As I've reiterated several times, we are committed to maintaining dealer inventory at healthy levels, which is why we adjusted shipments and supported inventory in the field with increased promotional activity. We have also implemented more flooring support for dealers to assist with the cost of inventory they're currently carrying.

正如我多次重申的那樣，我們致力於將經銷商庫存維持在健康水平，這就是我們調整發貨量並透過增加促銷活動來支持現場庫存的原因。我們還為經銷商提供了更多的地板支持，以幫助他們降低目前的庫存成本。

On a positive note, we saw favorable results associated with our efforts to gain efficiencies within our manufacturing facilities, particularly with logistics and materials, and we were able to further reduce manufacturing spend in response to lower volumes. These savings partially offset the negative effects of lower net price and the loss of manufacturing cost absorption in the quarter.

從積極的方面來看，我們在製造設施內提高效率的努力取得了良好的成果，特別是在物流和材料方面，並且我們能夠進一步減少製造支出以應對產量下降。這些節省部分抵消了本季淨價下降和製造成本吸收損失的負面影響。

We also surgically reduced operating costs recently to right size our cost structure to better match the current demand environment and help streamline our business. Year to date, our actions have eliminated 8% of our salaried workforce, and we have reduced certain discretionary spending areas such as travel.

我們最近也大幅降低了營運成本，以調整我們的成本結構，以更好地適應當前的需求環境並幫助簡化我們的業務。今年迄今為止，我們的行動已減少了 8% 的受薪員工，並減少了旅行等某些可自由支配的支出領域。

I was intentional with the word surgical. We took great efforts to make sure we were strategic in eliminating redundancies and preserving key R&D investments. We have seen this before and know that staying on the gas with innovation is key to emerging as a stronger company when the market stabilizes. We estimate these actions equate to over $100 million in structural changes that will be an ongoing benefit and help offset a portion of the headwind associated with lower volumes.

我是故意使用「外科手術」這個詞的。我們付出了巨大努力，確保我們在消除裁員和保留關鍵研發投資方面具有策略性。我們之前已經看到過這一點，並且知道，在市場穩定時保持創新活力是成為更強大公司的關鍵。我們估計這些行動相當於超過 1 億美元的結構性變革，這將是持續的好處，並有助於抵消與銷售下降相關的部分不利因素。

Before I move on from this side, let me close by saying that we were crystal clear at the start of the year. If retail played out below expectations, we would cut shipments to protect dealer inventory. Unfortunately, retail has proven weaker than anyone expected, and we acted to address the market dynamics, which has us bringing our full year guidance down. Bob will cover our guidance in more detail later.

在我繼續討論這一點之前，請允許我最後說一句，我們在今年年初的情況非常清楚。如果零售業績低於預期，我們將削減出貨量以保護經銷商庫存。不幸的是，事實證明零售業弱於任何人的預期，我們採取行動應對市場動態，這導致我們下調了全年指引。鮑勃稍後將更詳細地介紹我們的指導。

I want to spend some time today talking about the strategy we laid out in early 2022 and the progress that we've made. We continue to believe the strategy will help us generate profitable growth, strengthen our position within the powersports industry, and generate positive shareholder returns.

今天我想花一些時間談談我們在 2022 年初制定的策略以及我們所取得的進展。我們仍然相信該策略將幫助我們實現獲利成長，鞏固我們在動力運動產業的地位，並為股東帶來正面回報。

In fact, our focus strategy has guided choices from elevating the customer experience through innovation to improving our operations and more recently focusing on making our business more efficient. It has also guided our actions to carefully manage dealer inventory in a way that supports the profitability of our dealers while continuing to deliver the best customer experience.

事實上，我們的重點策略指導了我們的選擇，從透過創新提升客戶體驗到改善我們的運營，以及最近專注於提高我們的業務效率。它還指導我們謹慎管理經銷商庫存的行動，以支持經銷商的盈利能力，同時繼續提供最佳的客戶體驗。

Despite significant progress on these strategic priorities, the timing to achieve our financial targets has become uncertain given the numerous external headwinds driving this downward part of the cycle. At the time we gave our five-year financial targets in early 2022, we did not anticipate a powersports and marine downturn.

儘管這些策略重點取得了重大進展，但鑑於眾多外部阻力推動了週期的下行階段，實現我們財務目標的時機已變得不確定。當我們在 2022 年初制定五年財務目標時，我們並沒有預料到動力運動和船舶產業會出現衰退。

We remain committed to our financial objectives to grow sales mid-single digits, expand EBITDA margins to mid-to-high teens, grow EPS double digits, and deliver attractive ROIC in the mid-20s. What is in doubt is the timing of achieving these goals.

我們仍然致力於實現我們的財務目標，即銷售額增長中個位數，將EBITDA 利潤率擴大到中位數到十幾位數，每股收益增長兩位數，並在20 多歲左右實現有吸引力的投資報酬率。令人懷疑的是實現這些目標的時間。

We anticipate providing additional information around the timing of achieving these targets when we see more clarity in our end markets and a return to a more normalized environment. We believe the work we are doing today will position us to have higher earnings power and even stronger cash generation when a recovery occurs.

當我們看到終端市場更加清晰以及回歸更加正常化的環境時，我們預計會提供有關實現這些目標的時間的更多資訊。我們相信，我們今天所做的工作將使我們在經濟復甦時擁有更高的獲利能力和更強的現金產生能力。

I think it's important to cover some examples about how we are executing change to emerge stronger. First, we made some big decisions early on in my tenure as CEO to prune our portfolio of distractions outside of powersports, resulting in the divestiture of GEM, Taylor-Dunn, and Transamerican Auto Parts.

我認為重要的是舉一些例子來說明我們如何實施改變以變得更強大。首先，我們在擔任執行長期間做出了一些重大決定，以削減動力運動以外的干擾投資組合，最終剝離了 GEM、Taylor-Dunn 和 Transamerican Auto Parts。

As a result, we are more aligned and focused on powersports, which has enabled us to be more disciplined with capital allocation and investments. Ensuring we have a strong and aligned portfolio will continue to be a focus for us.

因此，我們更加一致並專注於動力運動，這使我們能夠在資本配置和投資方面更加自律。確保我們擁有強大且一致的產品組合將繼續成為我們的重點。

Rider-driven innovation is the key driver to winning customers, and we have proven time and time again that we raised the bar with the products that we offer. From the notable quality, durability, and design upgrades we made recently to our RZR, RANGER, and Indian motorcycle lineups, to category-defining products like our all-electric RANGER XP Kinetic, the industry's only extreme duty (technical difficulty) Polaris XPEDITION.

騎士驅動的創新是贏得客戶的關鍵驅動力，我們一次又一次證明，我們提供的產品提高了標準。從我們最近對 RZR、RANGER 和 Indian 摩托車系列進行的顯著品質、耐用性和設計升級，到我們的全電動 RANGER XP Kinetic、業界唯一的極限負載（技術難度）Polaris XPEDITION 等類別定義產品。

We've worked hard to deliver these products with the highest quality standards in the industry with continued pre- and post-sale surveillance to enable the ongoing performance of our vehicles to enhance the customer experience. This includes leveraging industry-leading connected vehicles through our RIDE COMMAND+ platform. We don't believe anyone has come close to matching the level of innovation we brought to the market over the last several years.

我們努力提供符合業界最高品質標準的產品，並進行持續的售前和售後監控，使我們的車輛保持持續的性能，從而增強客戶體驗。這包括透過我們的 RIDE COMMAND+ 平台利用業界領先的互聯車輛。我們認為，沒有人能夠與我們過去幾年為市場帶來的創新水平相提並論。

Turning to agile and efficient operations, we have doubled down on our efforts to increase efficiency within our manufacturing, supply chain, and logistics to support margin improvements. While some of these changes took longer than we would have liked, we are now seeing the progress we need to enable us to improve efficiency and the earnings power of Polaris into the future.

在敏捷、高效的營運方面，我們加倍努力提高製造、供應鏈和物流的效率，以支持利潤率的提高。雖然其中一些變化花費的時間比我們希望的要長，但我們現在看到了我們需要的進展，使我們能夠提高北極星未來的效率和獲利能力。

Some examples of the actions we've taken are driving the nearshoring, specifically from Asia and to North America, for both our Mexico and US operations; leveraging new dealer vehicle unloading capabilities to save on specialized equipment charges; and improving our suppliers' operational requirements such as on-time ship and packaging standards.

我們採取的行動的一些例子是推動近岸外包，特別是我們在墨西哥和美國業務的近岸外包；利用新的經銷商車輛卸載能力來節省專業設備費用；提高供應商的營運要求，例如準時出貨和包裝標準。

Most importantly in our two largest plans, lean model lines are identifying methods to significantly reduce line downtime and improve productivity. The changes are resulting in dramatic improvements in manufacturing efficiency of 15% or more. We are now achieving well north of 90% of our production schedules, which is a massive improvement on the performance from last year.

最重要的是，在我們的兩個最大的計劃中，精益模型生產線正在確定顯著減少生產線停機時間和提高生產力的方法。這些變化使製造效率顯著提高 15% 或更多。我們現在已經完成了 90% 的生產計劃，這比去年的表現有了巨大的進步。

While there is still much more to do, we are seeing much-needed progress and targeted improvements, which gives me confidence that we will achieve the desired level of operational efficiencies.

雖然還有很多工作要做，但我們看到了急需的進展和有針對性的改進，這讓我相信我們將達到預期的營運效率水準。

Lastly, we continue to execute against our capital allocation objectives and remain on track to our targeted share buyback goal. There are several headwinds that factored into our decision to push back the timing of our financial targets. For example, interest rates along with stubborn inflation have had a negative impact on consumer sentiment and discretionary spending.

最後，我們繼續執行我們的資本配置目標，並繼續實現我們的股票回購目標。我們決定推遲實現財務目標的時間有幾個不利因素。例如，利率和頑固的通膨對消費者信心和可自由支配支出產生了負面影響。

The share of customer wallet for discretionary items today is less than it was prior to 2021. Debt-to-income levels have reached a peak, and consumers are either maxed out or banks are hesitant to lend at these elevated levels. All these factors have negatively impacted the industry retail environment and resulted in a need to lower inventory of dealerships.

如今，消費者錢包中非必需品的份額低於 2021 年之前。債務與收入水平已達到頂峰，消費者要么已經不堪重負，要么銀行在如此高的水平上不願放貸。所有這些因素都對行業零售環境產生了負面影響，並導致需要降低經銷商的庫存。

Elevated interest rates are also impacting our dealers. Higher interest on dealer inventory coupled with weaker retail and broad macro concerns has many dealers looking to lower their inventory and costs. Even though dealer inventory is below pre-pandemic levels, dealers want to further reduce their inventory given higher per-unit interest costs.

利率上升也影響了我們的經銷商。對經銷商庫存的興趣增加，加上零售疲軟和廣泛的宏觀擔憂，許多經銷商希望降低庫存和成本。儘管經銷商庫存低於疫情前的水平，但考慮到單位利息成本較高，經銷商希望進一步減少庫存。

Not surprisingly, this mix of lower retail and higher inventory has also resulted in elevated promotions across the industry to entice buyers. This is made worse by the number of OEMs dealing with heavy non-current inventory in the channel, driving additional promotional activity.

毫不奇怪，零售量下降和庫存增加也導致整個行業加大促銷力度，以吸引買家。由於大量原始設備製造商在通路中處理大量非流動庫存，從而推動了額外的促銷活動，情況變得更糟。

Consistent with last quarter, Polaris is still one of the healthiest in terms of days, sales outstanding, and non-current when looking at CDK data on the health of dealer inventory in the channel. We believe these headwinds are temporary and the question is timing, which we are watching carefully.

與上季一致，在查看通路中經銷商庫存健康狀況的 CDK 數據時，Polaris 仍然是在天數、未完成銷售和非流動方面最健康的公司之一。我們認為這些不利因素是暫時的，問題是時機，我們正在仔細觀察。

I want to be clear. We're not abandoning the strategy we laid out for 2022. We remain committed to the journey and the financial targets we laid out. I have never been more confident in our company and remain optimistic about the future.

我想澄清一下。我們不會放棄為 2022 年制定的策略。我們仍然致力於我們所製定的旅程和財務目標。我對我們公司從未如此有信心，並對未來保持樂觀。

Let me go back to the quarter and discuss recent North American retail trends we're seeing. Within off-road, utility was flattish, driven by a decline in ATV, which was offset by strength in RANGER side by side. We expect ATV share to pick up in the back half of the year with the recent launch of our all-new 2-Up Sportsman and believe RANGER will remain positive for the balance of the year.

讓我回到本季並討論我們所看到的近期北美零售趨勢。在越野方面，由於 ATV 的下降，實用性表現平淡，但 RANGER 的強勁表​​現抵消了下降。我們預計，隨著最近推出的全新 2-Up Sportsman，ATV 份額將在今年下半年回升，並相信 RANGER 在今年餘下的時間裡將保持積極的勢頭。

Recreation remains soft, particularly within RZR. While RZR has been weak, we have seen continued strength in Polaris XPEDITION, especially the North Star Edition vehicles. We believe we took over 5 points of share in the crossover category during the second quarter.

休閒活動依然疲軟，尤其是在 RZR 內。雖然 RZR 表現疲軟，但我們看到 Polaris XPEDITION 持續走強，尤其是北極星版車輛。我們相信第二季度我們在跨界車類別中佔據了超過 5 個百分點的份額。

On-road retail was driven by softness in the heavyweight segment given recent competitive launches and industry weakness. We expect on-road retail to modestly improve in the third quarter as we see the impact of the newly launched Indian Scout lineup. In marine, we continue to see consumers pulling back on more expensive discretionary purchases.

鑑於最近的競爭性推出和行業疲軟，公路零售受到重量級細分市場疲軟的推動。我們預計第三季道路零售將略有改善，因為我們看到了新推出的 Indian Scout 系列的影響。在海運方面，我們繼續看到消費者減少購買更昂貴的非必需品。

Given more of the boat-selling season is behind us now, we await feedback from dealers during the fall ordering season to understand their outlook for 2025, but we do not see a meaningful improvement in marine for the remainder of 2024.

鑑於現在更多的船舶銷售季節已經過去，我們在秋季訂購季節等待經銷商的反饋，以了解他們對 2025 年的前景，但我們認為 2024 年剩餘時間內船舶市場不會出現有意義的改善。

I do want to touch on innovation one more time because we recently started shipping new products that we believe will positively impact our third quarter. The all-new Indian Scout models began shipping late in the second quarter and should help offset some of the pressure we're seeing in the heavyweight side of the business.

我確實想再次談論創新，因為我們最近開始推出新產品，我們相信這些產品將對我們的第三季產生積極影響。全新的 Indian Scout 型號於第二季末開始出貨，應該有助於抵消我們在重量級業務方面看到的一些壓力。

In off-road, we recently started shipping the new 2025 full-sized RANGERs and the 2025 Sportsman 570 2-Ups, built for both work and play, boasting unmatched comfort, strength, and versatility in the 2-Up space.

在越野方面，我們最近開始銷售新款 2025 年全尺寸 RANGER 和 2025 年 Sportsman 570 2-Ups，它們專為工作和娛樂而設計，在 2-Up 空間中擁有無與倫比的舒適性、強度和多功能性。

The other product we're watching in off-road is the 2025 RZR XP lineup. We completely redesigned the product last year and are bringing trim-level enhancements this year, as well as new features and lower pricing across all trim levels.

我們在越野領域關注的另一款產品是 2025 年 RZR XP 系列。我們去年完全重新設計了該產品，今年帶來了裝飾級別的增強功能，以及所有裝飾級別的新功能和更低的價格。

Again, this should be proof that our foot remains on the accelerator when it comes to innovation, while providing customers with the experience and added value they're looking for. I'm also excited for our off-road dealer meeting that will be held next week in Las Vegas where we will share more product news and talk to dealers about the state of the business and plans moving forward.

這再次證明，我們在創新方面始終保持加速器，同時為客戶提供他們所尋求的體驗和附加價值。我也對下週在拉斯維加斯舉行的越野經銷商會議感到興奮，我們將在會議上分享更多產品新聞，並與經銷商討論業務狀況和未來計劃。

As noted earlier, we're working with dealers to decrease their inventory in this current environment and have decided to provide dealers with several months of free flooring to help offset the increased impact of flooring interest on their business.

如前所述，我們正在與經銷商合作，在當前環境下減少庫存，並決定為經銷商提供幾個月的免費地板，以幫助抵消地板興趣對其業務增加的影響。

The decision will have a negative impact on margins, but we believe it's a worthwhile investment to help ensure our dealers are successful. We aim to be dealers' OEM of choice and believe in the long-term collective success of Polaris and our dealers.

這項決定將對利潤率產生負面影響，但我們相信這是一項值得的投資，有助於確保我們的經銷商成功。我們的目標是成為經銷商的首選 OEM，並相信 Polaris 和我們經銷商的長期集體成功。

Overall, dealer inventory dropped 4% sequentially, and we've updated our SIOP and production plans such that we are targeting a 15% to 20% reduction in dealer inventory versus last year, which is a more aggressive reduction than we had originally targeted for 2024 at the start of the year.

總體而言，經銷商庫存環比下降了 4%，我們更新了 SIOP 和生產計劃，我們的目標是與去年相比，經銷商庫存減少 15% 至 20%，這比我們最初的目標更加激進。年年初。

While we recognize this action negatively impacts our full-year outlook, we believe this is a prudent decision that benefits the long-term health of the channel and provides dealers a bit of relief from softer retail while we await a cyclical recovery in consumer discretionary spending patterns.

雖然我們認識到這項行動對我們的全年前景產生負面影響，但我們認為這是一個謹慎的決定，有利於通路的長期健康發展，並在我們等待消費者可自由支配支出週期性復甦的同時，讓經銷商從零售疲軟中得到一些緩解。

I'll now turn it over to Bob, who will summarize our second-quarter performance and provide updated commentary around our guidance and expectations for 2024. Bob?

我現在將其交給 Bob，他將總結我們第二季的業績，並圍繞我們對 2024 年的指導和預期提供最新評論。鮑伯？

Thanks, Mike, and good morning or afternoon to everyone on the call today. Second-quarter sales declined 12% versus last year due to a decline in volumes and elevated promotions, partially offset by favorable (technical difficulty)

謝謝麥克，今天與會的每個人都早安或下午好。由於銷量下降和促銷力度加大，第二季銷售額較去年下降 12%，但部分被有利的因素所抵消（技術難度）

PG&A continued to post strong results with 7% sales growth due to the greater volume of accessories on products like Polaris XPEDITION and RANGER North Star. Gross profit dollars and margins were primarily pressured by lower net pricing related to a higher promotional environment. Removing the impact from promotions, our progress against our target of realizing $150 million in operational savings, more than offset the impact of lower volume on absorption.

由於 Polaris XPEDITION 和 RANGER North Star 等產品的配件數量增加，PG&A 繼續取得強勁業績，銷售額成長 7%。毛利和利潤率主要受到與較高的促銷環境相關的較低淨定價的壓力。除去促銷的影響，我們在實現營運成本節省 1.5 億美元的目標方面所取得的進展足以抵銷吸納量下降的影響。

Year to date, we have realized approximately $50 million in operational savings related to materials, logistics, and plant spend. We continue to work towards the $150 million savings target, which would be expected to have a positive impact on the earnings power of Polaris once industry conditions normalize.

今年迄今為止，我們已在材料、物流和工廠支出方面實現了約 5000 萬美元的營運節省。我們繼續努力實現 1.5 億美元的節省目標，一旦產業狀況正常化，預計這將對 Polaris 的獲利能力產生積極影響。

In off-road, sales were down 6%, mainly driven by volume declines in ATV and RZR, as well as a headwind from elevated promotions. Share with an ORV was flat year over year with gains in side by sides, including RANGER and crossover. Polaris XPEDITION continues to provide a tailwind in crossover, helping to drive 5-plus points of share gains in this category during the quarter.

越野車銷量下降 6%，主要是由於 ATV 和 RZR 銷量下降以及促銷力度加大帶來的不利影響。ORV 的市佔率同比持平，但 RANGER 和跨界車的市佔率並列成長。Polaris XPEDITION 繼續為跨界車帶來推動力，幫助推動本季該類別的份額成長 5 個多點。

We saw heavy promotions in the channel on ATVs as OEMs worked to clear inventory, leading to share losses in this subcategory during the quarter. However, our data reflects almost 1 point of ORV share gain on a dollar basis.

由於原始設備製造商努力清理庫存，我們在全地形車通路中看到了大力促銷，導致本季度該子類別的份額損失。然而，我們的數據反映了 ORV 份額以美元計算增長了近 1 個百分點。

While we did see margin pressure in the quarter driven by the factors already mentioned, I remain pleased with the progress we are making within our factories that are driving real changes to our cost structure. These improvements are helping to mitigate the impact from unabsorbed overhead from volume reductions.

雖然我們確實看到了由上述因素驅動的本季度的利潤壓力，但我仍然對我們工廠內的進展感到滿意，這些進展正在推動我們的成本結構發生真正的變化。這些改進有助於減輕容量減少所帶來的未吸收開銷的影響。

As we look towards the third quarter, we expect shipment volumes to be down meaningfully, given the decisions we have made around prioritizing dealer health and inventory levels in this challenging environment. Promotions are expected to remain elevated as the industry continues to use promotions motions to stimulate demand and clear non-current inventory. We expect further pressure on margins given these lower volumes and the impact on plant overhead absorption.

展望第三季度，考慮到我們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中優先考慮經銷商健康和庫存水準的決定，我們預計出貨量將大幅下降。由於該行業繼續利用促銷活動來刺激需求並清理非流動庫存，預計促銷活動將繼續增加。鑑於銷售下降以及對工廠間接費用吸收的影響，我們預期利潤率將面臨進一步壓力。

Switching to on-road, sales during the quarter were down 19%, driven by lower shipments, particularly in the heavyweight segment. Indian motorcycles lost market share during the quarter, driven by weakness in the heavyweight category. We believe fundamental consumer retail was weaker than what the industry experienced in the quarter as industry retail was stimulated by competitive product launches.

轉向公路運輸後，由於出貨量下降（尤其是重量級市場），本季銷售額下降了 19%。由於重量級摩托車市場疲軟，印度摩托車在本季失去了市場份額。我們認為，消費者零售基本面弱於本季產業經歷，因為產業零售受到競爭性產品發布的刺激。

We began shipping our new Scout Indian motorcycle in June and expect our share position to improve in the back half of the year as these bikes arrive at dealerships. During the third quarter, we continue to expect lower retail as the industry grapples with a consumer that seems to have cut back on larger discretionary purchases. There continues to be a lot of excitement around the new Indian Scout models. However, this is expected to only somewhat offset industry pressure.

我們於 6 月開始運輸新的 Scout Indian 摩托車，預計隨著這些自行車到達經銷商，我們的市場份額將在今年下半年有所改善。在第三季度，我們繼續預計零售業將下降，因為該行業正在努力應對消費者似乎減少了較大的可自由支配購買的情況。新款 Indian Scout 車型仍然令人興奮不已。然而，預計這只能在一定程度上抵消行業壓力。

In marine, sales were down 40% as the industry continued to deal with elevated dealer inventory levels and higher interest rates impacting the consumer's decision to purchase. Our shipments in the quarter continued to decline with dealer inventory down approximately 18% versus a year ago and in line with 2018 levels, which we view as a viable baseline for the industry.

在船舶領域，由於該行業繼續應對經銷商庫存水準上升和利率上升影響消費者購買決定的問題，銷售額下降了 40%。我們本季的出貨量持續下降，經銷商庫存比一年前下降了約 18%，與 2018 年的水準一致，我們認為這是該行業的可行基準。

SSI data through May reflected a decline in year-over-year retail, and while we held share in pontoons, we seeded some share in deck boats. Gross profit margin was down given the top-line pressures driving less fixed cost absorption. We continue to be agile with variable costs, which is demonstrated with gross margins remaining above 20% despite the significant reductions in volume.

截至 5 月的 SSI 數據反映了零售額年減，雖然我們持有浮船市場份額，但我們在甲板船市場上獲得了一些份額。由於營收壓力導致固定成本吸收減少，毛利率下降。我們繼續靈活應對變動成本，儘管銷量大幅下降，毛利率仍保持在 20% 以上，證明了這一點。

We are continuing to see a challenging environment across the industry during the third quarter as dealers work through current inventory levels and consumer purchases are hampered by elevated interest rates. The next big data point will come early this fall when dealers begin to make ordering decisions as we head into the 2025 selling season.

我們在第三季繼續看到整個行業面臨充滿挑戰的環境，因為經銷商正在努力解決當前的庫存水平，而消費者的購買則受到利率上升的阻礙。下一個大數據點將於今年初秋到來，屆時經銷商將在 2025 年銷售旺季來臨之際開始做出訂購決定。

Moving to our financial position, we are lowering our expectations for cash generation this year due to our updated thoughts on our business performance. With this update, we have realigned CapEx and are driving working capital efficiencies to improve our use of cash during this period. Given the change in volume expectations, it will take us time to flush through working capital.

談到我們的財務狀況，由於我們對業務績效的最新想法，我們降低了今年現金產生的預期。透過本次更新，我們重新調整了資本支出，並正在提高營運資金效率，以改善我們在此期間的現金使用。考慮到數量預期的變化，我們需要時間來補充營運資金。

As a result, we expect cash performance in the fourth quarter to be better than cash generation in the third quarter. We maintain our goal of offsetting dilution from stock-based compensation programs this year, and we remain well ahead of our target of reducing the basic shares outstanding by 10%.

因此，我們預期第四季的現金表現將優於第三季的現金產生。我們今年維持抵銷股票薪酬計畫稀釋的目標，並且仍然遠遠領先於將已發行基本股減少 10% 的目標。

During the quarter, we used cash to continue our investments in innovation and key strategic capital projects and returned over $100 million to stockholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. We remain confident in our financial position and are driving our teams to improve working capital in this part of the economic cycle.

本季度，我們使用現金繼續對創新和關鍵策略資本項目進行投資，並以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還超過 1 億美元。我們對我們的財務狀況仍然充滿信心，並正在推動我們的團隊改善經濟週期這一階段的營運資本。

Now let's move to guidance and expectations for 2024. We have lowered our financial targets for the year, given soft retail trends across all product lines in a macroeconomic climate that has deteriorated relative to our expectations at the start of the year.

現在讓我們來談談 2024 年的指導和期望。鑑於宏觀經濟環境下所有產品線的零售趨勢相對於我們年初的預期有所惡化，我們降低了今年的財務目標。

With these factors at play, we have decided to right size shipments and increase our promotional efforts, underscoring our ongoing commitment to prioritizing the health of our dealer partners heading into the second half of the year.

鑑於這些因素的影響，我們決定調整出貨量並增加促銷力度，這突顯了我們在下半年優先考慮經銷商合作夥伴健康狀況的持續承諾。

The result of this decision will be lower shipping volumes leading to lower absorption at our plants, which is expected to negatively impact our third-quarter results more heavily than the fourth quarter. These cuts are happening across each segment. However, they are more pronounced in off-road, given reductions already taken in on-road and marine.

這項決定的結果將是運輸量下降，導致我們工廠的吸收率下降，預計這對我們第三季業績的負面影響將比第四季更大。這些削減發生在每個細分市場。然而，考慮到公路和海上運輸的減少，它們在越野運輸中更為明顯。

For sales, we now expect sales to be down 17% to 20% versus a year ago. In addition to lower volumes, we expect headwinds from promotional activity as well as finance interest, both of which are expected to be larger than our original guidance. As Mike noted, the added finance interest is in part due to our decision to help dealers manage the elevated cost they are seeing from carrying a higher value of inventory relative to the past few years.

對於銷售，我們現在預計銷售額將比一年前下降 17% 至 20%。除了銷售下降之外，我們預計促銷活動和融資利息也會帶來阻力，預計這兩者都將大於我們最初的指導。正如麥克指出的那樣，增加的財務利息部分是由於我們決定幫助經銷商管理他們因持有與過去幾年相比更高的庫存價值而增加的成本。

As it relates to our decision to curtail shipments further, you can see our initial plan to manage inventory on top of our current revised plan. Recall that we started going down this path last year with marine and RZR due to what we were seeing in the channel, as well as trends in retail. We began this year with certain assumptions on retail based off current trends and macroeconomic forecasts.

由於這與我們進一步削減出貨量的決定有關，您可以看到我們在當前修訂計劃的基礎上管理庫存的初步計劃。回想一下，由於我們在通路中看到的情況以及零售趨勢，我們去年開始在海事和 RZR 上走這條路。今年伊始，我們根據當前趨勢和宏觀經濟預測對零售業做出了某些假設。

Within this plan, at the beginning of the year, we were targeting a reduction of approximately 10% in shipments versus 2023 to help dealers look for their inventory levels. Fast forward to today, and we have seen interest rates stay higher for longer along with elevated inflationary pressures, which have impacted consumer discretionary purchase patterns on larger ticket items.

在該計劃中，今年年初，我們的目標是與 2023 年相比，出貨量減少約 10%，以幫助經銷商了解庫存水準。快進到今天，我們看到利率在較長時間內保持在較高水平，通膨壓力加大，影響了消費者對大件商品的可自由支配購買模式。

This is coupled with the feedback from our dealers on how flooring costs have quickly ramped up and are now one of the dealers' largest expenses. Based on this, we have made the decision to step in and hold the value proposition with our dealers by supporting them with additional flooring aid, as well as reducing our shipments further in the back half of the year versus our original plan.

再加上我們經銷商的回饋，地板成本如何迅速上升，目前已成為經銷商最大的支出之一。基於此，我們決定介入並與我們的經銷商保持價值主張，透過為他們提供額外的地板援助來支持他們，以及與我們最初的計劃相比，在今年下半年進一步減少我們的出貨量。

We now expect to end the year shipping to levels that can drive dealer inventories down 15% to 20% versus last year, helping to put our dealers and ourselves on a better footing going into 2025. Moving to EPS, we are now expecting adjusted EPS to be down over 50% and in the range of $3.50 to $4. Importantly, the magnitude of the volume drop we are dealing with has an oversized impact on margins due to lower absorption of overhead at our plants and other fixed costs.

現在，我們預計今年年底的出貨量將達到可以使經銷商庫存比去年下降 15% 至 20% 的水平，從而幫助我們的經銷商和我們自己在進入 2025 年時處於更好的基礎。至於每股收益，我們目前預計調整後每股收益將下降 50% 以上，範圍在 3.50 美元至 4 美元之間。重要的是，由於我們工廠吸收的間接費用和其他固定成本較低，我們面臨的產量下降幅度對利潤率產生了巨大影響。

The various items impacting sales, such as volumes, additional promotions, and unfavorable mix represent a $5 EPS headwind. From a manufacturing perspective, we are seeing approximately $.50 of net headwind with negative absorption accounting for $1.90 of the EPS takedown and overshadowing $1.40 of EPS tailwind from the great work our teams are doing on the targeted operational efficiencies to mitigate these pressures. The bright side is that these operational efficiencies are expected to positively impact the earnings power of Polaris in a normal operating and macro environment.

影響銷售的各種因素，例如銷售、額外促銷和不利的組合，代表著每股收益 5 美元的逆風。從製造業的角度來看，我們看到大約0.50 美元的淨逆風和負吸收，佔EPS 下降的1.90 美元，並且掩蓋了我們團隊為減輕這些壓力而在目標運營效率方面所做的出色工作帶來的1.40 美元的EPS 順風。好的一面是，這些營運效率預計將對北極星在正常營運和宏觀環境下的獲利能力產生積極影響。

Additionally, within OpEx, we have cut spending in non-critical areas and completed a headcount reduction earlier in July. We believe these actions were necessary as we right size the organization for the current environment. As noted before, these cuts do not impact our investments in growth and innovation, which remain integral to our long-term strategy.

此外，在營運支出方面，我們削減了非關鍵領域的支出，並在 7 月初完成了人員削減。我們認為這些行動是必要的，因為我們根據當前環境調整組織規模。如前所述，這些削減不會影響我們對成長和創新的投資，這仍然是我們長期策略的組成部分。

From an EPS and net income perspective, it is important to note that the percentage reduction is significantly more than the percentage reduction of revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA due to the relatively fixed nature of depreciation and debt interest.

從每股盈餘和淨利潤的角度來看，值得注意的是，由於折舊和債務利息的相對固定性質，減少的百分比明顯大於收入、毛利和 EBITDA 的減少百分比。

For the third quarter, a few things to note. Given how our plan looks today, the result of cutting shipments is expected to have a more meaningful impact to third-quarter results versus fourth quarter. Retail is expected to remain down, although we expect to gain modest share with innovation.

對於第三季度，有幾點需要注意。考慮到我們今天的計劃，削減出貨量的結果預計將對第三季的業績產生比第四季更有意義的影響。儘管我們預計零售業將透過創新獲得適度的份額，但預計零售業將繼續下滑。

Before I turn it back to Mike, I want to emphasize that many of these headwinds are not typically seen in a normal operating environment or an industry that has historically grown low to mid-single digits. We would expect volume and plant absorption tailwinds in an environment where we are growing at or near historical levels and shipping to retail.

在我把問題轉回麥克之前，我想強調的是，許多不利因素通常不會在正常的營運環境或歷史上以低至中個位數成長的行業中出現。我們預計，在我們的成長達到或接近歷史水平並運送到零售的環境中，銷售和工廠吸收將出現順風。

Plus, our business typically mixes up with the introduction of new innovation and technology, as well as the progression to side-by-sides from ATVs. Current promotional levels are elevated for many reasons associated with the macroeconomic factors and specific industry dynamics. Over time, we see an opportunity for these to come down, which we believe would benefit margins.

此外，我們的業務通常與新創新和技術的引入以及從全地形車到並行的發展相結合。目前的促銷水平由於與宏觀經濟因素和特定行業動態相關的多種原因而提高。隨著時間的推移，我們看到了這些下降的機會，我們相信這將有利於利潤率。

Additionally, the operational efficiency gains we are making are still expected to have a positive impact on earnings. So while the current environment is challenging, we have a positive outlook on the future of powersports and Polaris.

此外，我們所取得的營運效率提升預計仍將對獲利產生正面影響。因此，儘管當前的環境充滿挑戰，但我們對動力運動和北極星的未來抱持著積極的展望。

We believe the decisions we are making today are in the best interest of all our stakeholders, including customers, dealers, employees, and our stockholders. We intend on emerging stronger with a robust pipeline of innovation, leaner operations, and a healthy level of cash with the ultimate goal of delivering strong stockholder returns.

我們相信，我們今天所做的決定符合所有利害關係人的最佳利益，包括客戶、經銷商、員工和股東。我們打算透過強大的創新管道、精簡的營運和健康的現金水準變得更加強大，最終目標是為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Mike to wrap up the call. Go ahead, Mike.

這樣，我會將其轉回給麥克來結束通話。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks, Bob. We're expecting the same macro issues that impacted our second-quarter performance to persist throughout the year, resulting in subdued consumer demand for powersports and a cautious dealer network. For the second half of the year, we will continue to draw dealer inventory down through a combination of lower shipments as well as seed the market with strategic promotions to help dealers move inventory.

謝謝，鮑伯。我們預計影響第二季業績的宏觀問題將在全年持續存在，從而導致消費者對動力運動的需求減弱以及經銷商網路的謹慎。下半年，我們將繼續透過降低出貨量來降低經銷商庫存，並透過策略性促銷來培養市場，幫助經銷商轉移庫存。

I'm confident in our strategy. and believe that we're on the right path to ensure Polaris's global leadership in powersports while generating strong shareholder returns. We're working hard to navigate these current trends while remaining vigilant to emerge stronger than ever when retail demand returns.

我對我們的策略充滿信心。並相信我們正走在正確的道路上，確保北極星在動力運動領域的全球領導地位，同時產生強勁的股東回報。我們正在努力應對當前的趨勢，同時保持警惕，以便在零售需求回歸時變得比以往任何時候都更加強大。

Our recent customer metrics point to continued interest in the category with elevated levels of search and organic traffic to our site. People are shopping for Polaris, and we will be well positioned when those shoppers feel more confident to become buyers. Innovation remains a top priority, and we've begun to see real transformational efficiencies within our operations.

我們最近的客戶指標表明，隨著我們網站的搜尋量和自然流量的增加，人們對該類別的持續興趣。人們正在購買北極星，當這些購物者更有信心成為買家時，我們將處於有利地位。創新仍然是重中之重，我們已經開始在我們的營運中看到真正的轉型效率。

So while the journey might take longer than originally anticipated to realize the financial targets we laid out, our determination and passion are unwavering to grow this business mid-single digits, expand EBITDA margin to mid-to-high teens, improve ROIC to the mid-20s, and grow EPS by double digits.

因此，雖然實現我們所製定的財務目標的過程可能比最初預期的要長，但我們的決心和熱情堅定不移，將這項業務增長到中個位數，將EBITDA 利潤率擴大到中雙位數，將投資回報率提高到中位數-20s，每股收益成長兩位數。

I'm confident in this team, and the great work we've already begun will set us up to emerge stronger with greater earnings power and cash generation capability while also maintaining our leadership in powersports. We thank you for your continued support. And with that, I'll turn it over to Rocco to open up the line for questions.

我對這個團隊充滿信心，我們已經開始的偉大工作將使我們變得更加強大，擁有更大的盈利能力和現金生成能力，同時保持我們在動力運動領域的領導地位。我們感謝您一直以來的支持。接下來，我會將其轉交給 Rocco，以開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Altobello, Raymond James.

（操作員說明）喬·阿爾托貝洛、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Thanks. Hey guys. Good morning. First question on the outlook of a 15% to 20% reduction in shipments this year, what sort of retail is that baking in? And what product segments do you think require the greatest cuts?

謝謝。嘿夥計們。早安.關於今年出貨量減少 15% 至 20% 的前景的第一個問題，這與什麼樣的零售業有關？您認為哪些產品領域需要最大程度的削減？

Yes, the -- obviously, we're anticipating the retail environment to be weaker than we anticipated. I don't know that we're going to get into a lot of specifics, but safe to say it's down from where we had thought the industry was going to be.

是的，顯然，我們預計零售環境將比我們預期的要弱。我不知道我們會討論很多細節，但可以肯定地說，它低於我們對行業預期的預期。

The reduction by segment is somewhat proportional to the segments proportion of Polaris. Obviously, meaning off-road is the lion's share of the reduction. And within that category, there's a lot of dynamics. Obviously, the REC space is more heavily impacted.

分段減少與北極星的分段比例有些成正比。顯然，越野是減少的最大份額。在這個類別中，有很多動態。顯然，REC 空間受到的影響更大。

You heard from my prepared remarks that the utility side, specifically around RANGER has held up, although lower than we expected. It is still generating positive retail performance. So obviously, the cuts have been a little bit deeper on the REC side.

您從我準備好的發言中得知，公用事業方面，特別是 RANGER 方面，雖然低於我們的預期，但仍然堅挺。它仍在產生積極的零售業績。很明顯，REC 方面的削減幅度更大一些。

And we obviously, as a proportion of what we expect retail to be in the second half, we went a little bit heavier to some of our higher ASP vehicles, which obviously will provide some relief to dealers having to carry that inventory and the costs associated with that.

顯然，作為我們預計下半年零售量的一部分，我們對一些平均售價較高的車輛加大了一些力度，這顯然將為必須承擔庫存和相關成本的經銷商提供一些緩解。

Yes, Joe, I mean we started this effort last year with marine and RZR. So if you look at the full -- if you look at marine versus last year, the cuts are a little more significant versus our plan. We had expected marine to be down, so we'd already factored some of that in, same thing with RZR. So like Mike said, if you look at it relative to our original expectations, it's pretty proportionate across all the categories.

是的，喬，我的意思是我們去年與 Marine 和 RZR 一起開始了這項工作。因此，如果你看一下整體情況——如果你看一下海洋與去年的情況，你會發現削減幅度比我們的計劃大一些。我們預計 Marine 會出現故障，所以我們已經考慮到了其中的一些因素，RZR 也是如此。因此，就像麥克所說，如果你相對於我們最初的期望來看待它，你會發現它在所有類別中都相當相稱。

Got it, very helpful. And just to follow up on that, as we turn the page on '24 and think about '25, which I think you're probably happy to do, if we look at slide 13, how much of the EPS guidance cut is sort of one-time-ish in nature, and how much of that would you expect to come back next year?

明白了，非常有幫助。為了跟進這一點，當我們翻到 24 年並考慮 25 年時，我認為您可能會很樂意這樣做，如果我們看一下幻燈片 13，EPS 指導削減的幅度是多少本質上是一次性的，您預計明年會回來多少？

Yes, I mean I'll let Bob kind of get into some of the puts and takes, but first and foremost, we're getting our bearings around the dynamics that emerge through Q2. So having a position on '25, we're a little ways away from that. And as you know, so much of this is going to hinge on what the retail environment is.

是的，我的意思是我會讓鮑伯參與一些調整和調整，但首先也是最重要的是，我們正在了解第二季出現的動態。因此，我們距離 25 年的目標還有一段距離。如您所知，這在很大程度上取決於零售環境。

And obviously, if we're to a more stable retail environment where we're back to shipping in line with retail, there's positive dynamics because of the reset that we took this year where we're under shipping retail, as well as the snow season and how that ultimately works out.

顯然，如果我們要建立一個更穩定的零售環境，讓我們的運輸與零售保持一致，那麼就會出現積極的動態，因為我們今年在運輸零售方面進行了重置，而且雪賽季以及最終結果如何。

And then obviously, we put the brakes on a lot of cost. And we've been very successful within the operations. We talked about $150 million at the beginning of the year. Obviously, we're now targeting significantly more than that given how slow the operations are or how low the volume is coming. And so you start to get into a position to be able to annualize the structural improvements that we've made and only benefited from partially this year.

顯然，我們抑制了大量成本。我們在營運方面非常成功。我們在年初談到了 1.5 億美元。顯然，考慮到營運速度有多慢或產量有多低，我們現在的目標遠不止於此。因此，您開始能夠將我們所做的結構性改進按年計算，但今年僅部分受益。

Yes, so Joe, if you're looking at slide 13, the way I would think about it, I mean, we're not going to get into giving guidance for 2025 yet. We got a long way to go here in '24. But if you -- the main drivers are the volume and mix, and it's about two-thirds volume, a third mix. If we were shipping to -- if retail was flat, and we were shipping to retail, some of that would come back because obviously, we took the big cuts this year.

是的，喬，如果您正在看幻燈片 13，按照我的想法，我的意思是，我們還不會提供 2025 年的指導。24 年我們還有很長的路要走。但如果你——主要驅動力是音量和混合，大約是三分之二的音量，三分之一的混合。如果我們運送到零售業持平，並且我們運送到零售業，其中一些會回來，因為顯然，我們今年大幅削減了開支。

The lower volume, that would come back depending on where retail goes. The elevated promotions, it's really hard to say what promo is going to look like in 2025. So I don't have much to say there. Flooring interest, the goal of the flooring is to help the dealers as the inventory winds itself down. How much of that would carry forward will depend on where inventory goes and where rates go.

成交量下降，這將取決於零售的方向。促銷力道加大，很難說 2025 年的促銷會是什麼樣子。所以我沒有太多要說的。地板興趣，地板的目標是在庫存逐漸減少時幫助​​經銷商。其中有多少會結轉將取決於庫存的去向和利率的去向。

Then when you look at it, as Mike said, we were targeting $150 million. This is a bridge versus our initial guidance. So the initial guidance assumed the $150 million. So this is incremental additional plant material labor and overhead spend savings.

然後你看一下，正如麥克所說，我們的目標是 1.5 億美元。這是與我們最初指導方針的橋樑。因此，最初的指導假設為 1.5 億美元。因此，這是增量額外的工廠材料勞動力和間接費用節省。

And so that should carry forward. We're continuing to make good progress there. We feel good about how the factories are operating. Obviously, it's not enough to overcome the $1.90 of planned absorption hit, but I think a really good effort by the team to offset that.

因此，這一點應該發揚光大。我們在那裡繼續取得良好進展。我們對工廠的營運狀況感到滿意。顯然，這不足以克服 1.90 美元的計劃吸收衝擊，但我認為團隊確實做出了很好的努力來抵消這一點。

And then as you think about OpEx, about half of this will come back because it's primarily related to the company's various bonus programs, which obviously will be significantly lower this year, given the performance. So some of that will come back, but we'll have some carryover from the headcount reductions and other things.

然後當你想到營運支出時，其中大約一半會回來，因為它主要與公司的各種獎金計劃有關，考慮到業績，今年的獎金計劃顯然會大大降低。所以其中一些會回來，但我們會從裁員和其他事情中得到一些結轉。

There is some temporary stuff in there, travel and the normal things you do when times get tough. And then one thing just to keep in mind for Q3. Q3 has our dealer meeting in it, so Q3 OpEx will be a little higher than Q4 because of the dealer meeting.

裡面有一些臨時的東西，旅行和困難時期你做的正常事情。第三季要記住一件事。第三季有我們的經銷商會議，所以由於經銷商會議的原因，第三季的營運成本會比第四季高一點。

I think, Joe, what I would want to just come back to because it's really at the base of -- we reacted aggressively in Q2. When you think about the volume that we're pulling out for the year, we pulled about 25% out in the second quarter. That was the chart that Bob went through that's right behind the guidance chart. And we also -- although we took the time to do it right, we went aggressively after our cost structure.

我想，喬，我想回到這一點，因為這確實是我們在第二季度做出積極反應的基礎。當你想到我們今年的出貨量時，我們在第二季度出貨了大約 25%。這就是鮑伯瀏覽過的圖表，位於指導圖表的後面。我們也——儘管我們花了時間把事情做好，但我們還是積極追求我們的成本結構。

And yes, there are certain pieces that will be more short term. But the point I drove with the team is that we've got to really focus on rightsizing this business. And then as Bob indicated, not only do we have line of sight to getting to the $150 million and more given lower volumes. But I'm really encouraged with what I hear from our operations team in terms of -- we really just have not been a truly lean environment, an efficient environment. And we've got significant opportunity.

是的，有些作品的短期性會更高。但我和團隊一起推動的一點是，我們必須真正專注於調整這項業務的規模。然後，正如鮑伯所指出的，我們不僅有希望達到 1.5 億美元，而且考慮到銷量較低，還會有更多資金。但我從我們的營運團隊聽到的消息讓我深受鼓舞——我們確實還沒有成為一個真正的精實環境、高效的環境。我們有重要的機會。

And you can see just from the work we're doing, we're already driving some of that efficiency. But obviously, when volume comes back into the market and we're in a more positive, that gives us the ability to really leverage our cost structure. So whether that's '25, '26, there's a lot of other factors at play, but I feel really good about how we're sizing the cost structure and our ability to finally get after the margin improvements that we've talked about for so long.

您可以從我們正在做的工作中看到，我們已經在一定程度上提高了效率。但顯然，當銷售回到市場並且我們處於更積極的狀態時，這使我們有能力真正利用我們的成本結構。因此，無論是 25 年還是 26 年，還有很多其他因素在起作用，但我對我們如何調整成本結構以及我們最終實現我們所討論的利潤率改善的能力感到非常滿意。

Very helpful, guys. Thank you.

非常有幫助，夥計們。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Joe

謝謝，喬

Megan Alexander, Morgan Stanley.

梅根亞歷山大，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to maybe follow up on Joe's first question a bit there. So retail, overall, I know it differs by segment. But retail, overall, it does look like it's down maybe high single digits so far in the first half.

嘿，早安。感謝您提出我們的問題。我只是想稍微跟進一下喬的第一個問題。因此，總體而言，零售業，我知道它因細分市場而異。但總體而言，上半年零售業似乎確實出現了高個位數的下降。

I don't want to necessarily put words in your mouth. But just based on your comments, it seems like maybe some things expected to get a little bit better in the second half from a share perspective, maybe some things stay the same. But I guess there's still reason to believe retail could maybe be down high single digits, which would be -- high single digits worse than your original expectations.

我不想一定要把話放到你嘴裡。但僅根據您的評論，從股票的角度來看，下半年某些事情似乎會有所好轉，也許有些事情會保持不變。但我想仍然有理由相信零售業可能會出現高個位數下降，這將比您最初的預期更糟。

So in the context of the 10% additional cut to shipments, is it really just the change in your retail expectations or is there some implied additional destocking? I just want to make sure I'm understanding the change and maybe it's just that it's -- it depends on the segment. But maybe if you could just help us a little bit to understand that, that would be helpful.

那麼，在出貨量額外削減 10% 的背景下，這真的只是您零售預期的變化，還是隱含著額外的去庫存？我只是想確保我理解這一變化，也許這只是取決於細分市場。但如果你能幫助我們理解這一點，也許會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean, you know it. Each segment has very different dynamics. But the way to think about it is, when we came into the year and I made these comments in my prepared remarks, we were expecting to bring dealer inventory down low double digits.

是的。我的意思是，你知道。每個細分市場都有非常不同的動態。但思考的方式是，當我們進入這一年並且我在準備好的演講中發表這些評論時，我們預計會將經銷商庫存降低到兩位數。

And now we're talking about 15% to 20%, which basically signals that in addition to the retail reduction that we're seeing, we are taking a more aggressive position because we need to make sure that we've got this business position to play a lot more offense and defense as we move forward.

現在我們談論的是 15% 到 20%，這基本上表明，除了我們看到的零售業減少之外，我們正在採取更積極的立場，因為我們需要確保我們擁有這一業務地位隨著我們的前進，我們會進行更多的進攻和防守。

I will tell you that as we look at our second half retail versus first half, we do not have any Herculean improvements built in. We have some very specific areas around -- we know midsized motorcycles will improve because of the launch of the new Scout.

我會告訴你，當我們比較下半年的零售業與上半年的情況時，我們沒有任何內建的巨大改進。我們有一些非常具體的領域——我們知道中型摩托車將因新款 Scout 的推出而得到改善。

We know that the new ATV 2-Up, which is the first redesigned vehicle we've had in the market in a long time and something that customers have been looking for, we have some small areas like that, but we are not banking on some massive improvement. We really are expecting the environment that we've been experiencing here in Q2 that really -- we had a tough April.

我們知道新款 ATV 2-Up，這是我們長期以來在市場上推出的第一款重新設計的車輛，也是客戶一直在尋找的東西，我們有一些類似的小區域，但我們不指望一些巨大的改進。我們真的很期待第二季所經歷的環境——我們度過了一個艱難的四月。

Things got a little bit better in May, a little bit better in June, but still ended up being well below. And with those being peak seasonality times for us, you miss that window with boats and motorcycles. You're pretty much set at that point as well as in some of our REC markets.

五月情況好轉，六月又好一些，但最終仍遠低於預期。由於現在是我們的旺季，您會錯過船隻和摩托車的窗口。在這一點上以及我們的一些 REC 市場中，您已經基本做好了準備。

So we've tried to build that in and calibrate. We've communicated with dealers what those new profiles look like. The team's still working through it. I'm going to be not only at our dealer meeting next week, but we have a dealer council meeting the day before, where we'll have some of our top dealers in there that represent the network.

因此，我們嘗試將其內建並進行校準。我們已經與經銷商溝通了這些新配置的外觀。該團隊仍在努力解決這個問題。我不僅要參加下週的經銷商會議，而且前一天還要參加經銷商委員會會議，屆時我們將有一些代表整個網路的頂級經銷商參加。

And that'll give me firsthand view to how they're feeling about things, the reaction to the new profiles, which overall, I think, has been unbalanced positive. And we'll continue to adjust the business as we move forward based on how the macro environment is playing out.

這將使我能夠第一手了解他們對事物的感受以及對新簡介的反應，我認為總體而言，這是不平衡的積極的。我們將根據宏觀環境的發展情況，繼續調整業務。

Yes, a couple other timing things to keep in mind as you think about H1 versus H2. First half of the year has really no snowmobile retail because we didn't have any snow. Normally, I mean, most of the retail is in -- a lot of it's in Q4. But this year, some are in Q1, and we didn't really have any in Q1. And we're expecting a relatively more normal snow season, so there will be snow retail in Q4 that wasn't there in the first half.

是的，當您考慮 H1 與 H2 時，您需要記住其他一些時間安排事項。今年上半年確實沒有雪地摩托車零售，因為我們沒有下雪。我的意思是，通常情況下，大部分零售都在第四季。但今年，有些是在第一季度，而我們在第一季實際上沒有。我們預計雪季會相對更加正常，因此第四季將會有上半年沒有的雪零售。

And then marine has been one of the most pressured segments, and the reality is there's not a lot of marine retail in the second half, so that negative impact kind of slows down. But to Mike's point, we're not expecting Herculean improvements other than things where we know we've got new product or some changes in the industry.

然後，海洋一直是壓力最大的領域之一，而現實情況是，下半年海洋零售不多，因此負面影響有所減緩。但就麥克而言，除了我們知道新產品或產業發生的一些變化之外，我們並不期待巨大的改進。

Got it, that's helpful. And then maybe just to follow up, maybe to ask a more pointed question, how do you view each end market, each segment, off-road, on-road, marine, kind of the channel inventory position today versus where you'd like to be at year end? It seems like off-road, there's still the most work to do, but definitely would appreciate you confirming that.

明白了，很有幫助。然後也許只是跟進，也許問一個更尖銳的問題，您如何看待每個終端市場、每個細分市場、越野、公路、海洋、今天的渠道庫存狀況與您想要的情況到年底？看起來像是越野，仍然有很多工作要做，但絕對會感謝您確認這一點。

And then I guess, how does that, in the context of Bob, your comment on promos, we have no idea next year. Is that more so a comment of not knowing if the channel will be cleaned up or more just about the consumer willingness to purchase the vehicles?

然後我想，在鮑勃的背景下，你對促銷的評論，我們明年不知道。這更多的是不知道通路是否會清理的評論，還是更多的是消費者的購車意願？

Yes, maybe let me start there and work backwards. I mean, one, it does depend on what the macro is, but it also depends on the competitive environment. I mean, one of the things that we were probably caught even more off guard than we expected in Q2 was the degree of which there was non-current inventory still being pushed into the channel.

是的，也許讓我從這裡開始並逆向工作。我的意思是，第一，這確實取決於宏觀是什麼，但也取決於競爭環境。我的意思是，第二季度我們可能比預期更措手不及的事情之一是非流動庫存仍在被推入渠道的程度。

We do believe that a lot of that's getting resolved and was handled through Q2, hopefully. We do have CDK data that covers a significant portion of the market. We know that we are the healthiest by far from a current to non-current, as well as being either number one or number two in terms of the day sales outstanding at each of the dealers on a rolling six and 12 month.

我們確實相信，其中許多問題都已解決，並有望在第二季解決。我們確實擁有涵蓋很大一部分市場的 CDK 數據。我們知道，從目前到非當前，我們是迄今為止最健康的，並且在連續 6 個月和 12 個月的每個經銷商的每日銷售額方面排名第一或第二。

So there are competitive dynamics that we obviously don't have a direct influence on, but I know that our dealers are putting a lot of pressure, as many of you know, because of the surveys and the discussions you've had, although with a very (technical difficulty) of the dealer network. I think that sentiment is shared. The uncertainty in the marketplace is driving a reluctance to carry any more inventory than they think they need to have, and that's essentially what we're responding to.

因此，我們顯然對競爭動態沒有直接影響，但我知道，正如你們許多人所知，由於調查和討論，我們的經銷商正在施加很大的壓力，儘管一個非常（技術難度）的經銷商網絡。我認為這種情緒是共同的。市場的不確定性導致人們不願意持有比他們認為需要的更多的庫存，而這本質上就是我們所回應的。

I think your point around each of the segments is pretty accurate. Off-road probably needed the most correction, although we did make corrections to motorcycles and marine. We've been working on the marine side in earnest since last year, reacting to the current environment. And I think that the dealers have been appreciative of that.

我認為你對每個部分的觀點都非常準確。儘管我們確實對摩托車和船舶進行了修正，但越野可能最需要修正。從去年開始，我們就針對當前的環境，認真做好海洋方面的工作。我認為經銷商對此很感激。

Motorcycles, it's weak industry, but some competitive dynamics there with some new products that came in. Off-road is really, obviously, the lion's share of it, given the magnitude of the business as well as with the majority of our dealers. It's the largest line that they've got. And as a result, that's where we really needed to make the most moves.

摩托車，這是一個薄弱的行業，但隨著一些新產品的出現，出現了一些競爭動態。考慮到業務的規模以及我們大多數經銷商的規模，越野顯然佔據了其中的最大份額。這是他們排的最長的隊伍。因此，這就是我們真正需要採取最多行動的地方。

But I'm going to come back around. I said it last time. I'll say it again this time. We monitor the data. We know that we're the best in terms of the current to non-current mix at the dealerships. We also know by each of our segments where we stand in terms of the day sales outstanding on the floor. And I can tell you, we're either number one or number two in the majority of those segments.

但我會回來的。我上次就說過了。這次我再說一次。我們監控數據。我們知道，就經銷商的當前與非當前組合而言，我們是最好的。我們也了解每個細分市場的當日銷售額。我可以告訴你，我們在大多數細分市場中要么排名第一，要么排名第二。

That doesn't. say that we haven't got work to do clearly with the guidance change that we have. We're working through that and I'm going to be in front of dealers next week getting a firsthand view to how that's all going and being perceived.

事實並非如此。說我們還沒有明確的工作要做來改變我們的指導方針。我們正在解決這個問題，下週我將在經銷商面前獲得第一手資料，以了解這一切的進展和人們的看法。

Thanks Mike. I'll pass it on.

謝謝邁克。我會把它傳遞下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

弗雷德‧懷特曼，沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, guys, good morning. Maybe just to follow up on the last question, can you talk about the plans for the ORV leadership going forward? Mike, I know the press release last week mentioned you were going to take a little bit more of a hands-on approach to that going forward, but can you just fill us in on maybe how you see that being managed longer term?

嘿，夥計們，早安。也許只是為了跟進最後一個問題，您能談談 ORV 領導層的未來計劃嗎？麥克，我知道上週的新聞稿提到您將採取更多的實際操作方法來實現這一目標，但您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待長期管理？

Yes, I mean, look, we're in a challenging environment. And I think given that it's 75% of our revenue and pretty much all of our income, it's probably not a bad thing for me to spend a little bit of time with that team. What I will tell you is I've got an incredibly strong corporate team, folks who have been with our company for a long time, very talented, that I can rely on at the corporate level.

是的，我的意思是，看，我們正處於一個充滿挑戰的環境。我認為，考慮到它占我們收入的 75%，幾乎是我們所有收入的一部分，對我來說花一點時間與該團隊在一起可能並不是一件壞事。我要告訴你的是，我擁有一支非常強大的公司團隊，他們在我們公司工作了很長時間，非常有才華，我可以在公司層面上依賴他們。

And then within the off-road business, we've -- I've been staying very close over the past several months. We've made a number of organizational changes to really simplify and streamline. We have four very strong business leaders for ORV, snow, commercial, and government defense, who have a lot of industry experience.

然後在越野業務中，我們在過去的幾個月裡一直保持著非常密切的關係。我們進行了許多組織變革，以真正簡化和精簡。我們有四位非常強大的 ORV、雪、商業和政府國防業務領導者，他們擁有豐富的產業經驗。

And so it will give me an opportunity to work more closely with them. And then we'll decide down the road what that means in terms of ultimately any organizational decisions that we need to make.

因此，這將給我一個與他們更密切合作的機會。然後我們將決定這對我們最終需要做出的任何組織決策意味著什麼。

But in light of the current environment we're in, I think we all benefit from me being a little bit closer. And like I said, I'm excited to have the opportunity to be with the dealers next week, a meeting that I would normally attend, but I'll obviously play a larger role in, given the changes that we're contending with.

但鑑於我們目前所處的環境，我認為我們都受益於我更接近一點。就像我說的，我很高興下周有機會與經銷商一起參加，這是我通常會參加的會議，但考慮到我們正在應對的變化，我顯然會在其中發揮更大的作用。

Okay, that's fair. And then you guys also mentioned some planned cuts to hire ASP product. I think Bob also gave some color on the mixed headwinds that are baked into that EPS reduction. I'm wondering if you're seeing any signs of incremental pressure at sort of that higher-end consumer or if it's really just a matter of dealers are kind of tapped out from a floor plan perspective and just don't want the higher dollar product on a unit per unit basis.

好吧，這很公平。然後你們也提到了一些計劃削減僱用 ASP 產品。我認為鮑伯也對每股盈餘減少所帶來的混合阻力給了一些解釋。我想知道您是否看到高端消費者面臨任何壓力增加的跡象，或者這實際上只是經銷商從平面圖的角度來看已經被淘汰的問題，只是不想要更高的價格產品按單位計算。

Yes, I would say it's more the second comment. We launched XD and XPEDITION and obviously had a lot of channel fill, and retail's been good at the high end of those products. It will be a little slower at the lower end of those products. So North Star cab units tend to do really well. And I think that's a trend we're seeing across kind of most industries, right?

是的，我想說這更多是第二條評論。我們推出了 XD 和 XPEDITION，顯然有很多通路填充，而且這些產品的高端零售業表現良好。這些產品的低端速度會慢一些。所以北極星計程車單位往往表現得非常好。我認為這是我們在大多數行業中看到的趨勢，對嗎？

High-dollar cash buyers are still buying and they're buying premium product. And so really our decision was more around those Premium products are also expensive for dealers to carry on floor plan. And so that's a good place to go to correct inventory. And so we chose to do that.

高額現金買家仍在購買，他們購買的是優質產品。因此，我們的決定實際上更多地圍繞著那些優質產品，對於經銷商來說進行平面圖也很昂貴。因此，這是糾正庫存的好地方。所以我們選擇這樣做。

But we are seeing decent strength there. And some of it is correcting the mix and just getting the mix to where the stuff that's really selling well is what they have in inventory and some of the stuff that's been a little slower, we cut back shipments on it and pull out.

但我們在那裡看到了不錯的實力。其中一些是糾正組合，只是將組合調整到真正暢銷的東西是他們庫存中的東西，而一些速度稍慢的東西，我們減少了發貨量並退出。

And as you can imagine, it's a delicate balance. I mean, what we don't want to do is overcorrect and put ourselves in a position where we start seeding showroom floor and share. And the fact that in the second quarter we held our own from a share standpoint on a year-to-date basis, we've gained share and side-by-sides.

正如你可以想像的那樣，這是一種微妙的平衡。我的意思是，我們不想做的過於正確，並把自己置於開始在陳列室播種和分享的位置。事實上，從年初至今的份額來看，我們在第二季度保持了自己的地位，我們的份額和並列成長。

When you think about some of the dynamics in that market specifically around non-current to current inventory and, frankly, the significant discounts and financial promos that we're battling against, I'm pretty proud of the team being able to put ourselves in a position like that to say that we held our ground and then side-by-sides actually gained share.

當您考慮該市場的一些動態時，特別是圍繞非當前庫存到當前庫存的動態，以及坦率地說，我們正在對抗的大幅折扣和財務促銷時，我為團隊能夠將自己融入其中而感到非常自豪這樣的立場是說我們堅守陣地，然後實際上並肩贏得了份額。

Yes, I mean you can see it with XPEDITION. We talked about it in crossover. We gained 5 points of share, and that's driven by XPEDITION. So certainly, the high end of the XPEDITION product is selling really well, getting great reviews. People are really enjoying the product. So we'll continue to drive that leadership position, but we're going to be careful to make sure the balance is right, to make sure the dealers get the relief on their floor plans that they're looking for.

是的，我的意思是你可以用 XPEDITION 看到它。我們在交叉中討論過它。我們獲得了 5 個百分點的份額，這是由 XPEDITION 推動的。當然，XPEDITION 的高階產品銷售非常好，獲得了好評。人們真的很喜歡這個產品。因此，我們將繼續推動這一領導地位，但我們將小心確保平衡正確，以確保經銷商在他們正在尋找的平面圖上得到緩解。

Perfect. Thanks a lot.

完美的。多謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Fred.

謝謝，弗雷德。

Craig Kennison, Baird.

克雷格·肯尼森，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. It's really a follow up, Mike, to the last comment you made. But I know part of the cost of reducing inventory is that you could open the door up to competitors that want to show maybe less discipline in how they stock dealers. I'm curious. specifically, how do you protect your flank? For example, do you tie that floor plan coverage promo to reorders? Just curious how you strike that balance.

嘿，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。麥克，這實際上是您上次發表評論的後續行動。但我知道減少庫存的部分成本是，你可能會向那些想要在經銷商庫存方面表現出更少紀律的競爭對手敞開大門。我很好奇。具體來說，如何保護側翼？例如，您是否將平面圖覆蓋促銷與重新訂購連結起來？只是好奇你是如何取得這種平衡的。

Yes, I mean, it's a good -- there's always some level of exposure. What I would tell you is that I think there's a couple of things that kind of self-regulate. I mean, certainly in an environment like this, the dealers are going to play a significant role in making sure that they're putting the appropriate pressure.

是的，我的意思是，這很好——總是有一定程度的曝光。我想告訴你的是，我認為有一些事情可以自我調節。我的意思是，在這樣的環境中，經銷商肯定會發揮重要作用，確保他們施加適當的壓力。

And I think without going into a lot of details, you've heard that from some of our other competitors. Or they will literally discontinue a line. We've seen that in the marine space, where dealers got stuck with a lot of inventory from short lines. And they obviously put a focus on it in the near term to move it, but they're no longer carrying those brands. So there is an element of that.

我想，無需了解太多細節，您就已經從我們的其他一些競爭對手那裡聽到了這一點。或者他們實際上會中斷一條線路。我們在海洋領域已經看到了這一點，經銷商因短線而陷入大量庫存。顯然，他們在短期內將重點放在移動它上，但他們不再攜帶這些品牌。所以有一個因素。

In our off-road business, obviously, the North Star program that we have, which is essentially how we rate our dealers and then they get rewarded in terms of everything from holdback to other incentives that they participate in, that's going to play a key role. Our team has done a lot of work over the past several quarters.

顯然，在我們的越野業務中，我們擁有的北極星計劃，這本質上是我們對經銷商進行評級的方式，然後他們在從保留到他們參與的其他激勵措施等各個方面獲得獎勵，這將發揮關鍵作用角色。我們的團隊在過去幾個季度做了很多工作。

The business reviews that we talked about in the last meeting, where they're sitting down, they're talking through market share, market share targets, health of the dealer's business, I think those are going to serve us incredibly well. And like I said, we're going to have an opportunity to be in front of dealers next week and hear firsthand how they're feeling and make sure that we're addressing those concerns.

我們在上次會議上討論的業務回顧，他們坐下來討論市場份額、市場份額目標、經銷商業務的健康狀況，我認為這些將為我們提供非常好的服務。正如我所說，下週我們將有機會站在經銷商面前，直接聆聽他們的感受，並確保我們正在解決這些問題。

As I said in my prepared remarks, we want to be the partner of choice. And they should know that they have my commitment that we're going to be working that. I'm going to be there firsthand. And we're going to continue to work that through the balance of the year and into '25 to make sure that we're demonstrating through action consistently with the words I just said.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們希望成為首選合作夥伴。他們應該知道我向他們承諾我們將努力做到這一點。我會親自去那裡。我們將在今年剩下的時間裡繼續努力，直到 25 年，以確保我們透過行動證明與我剛才所說的話一致。

Thanks, Mike. And if I could sneak in another question just to get your comments on a different topic related to tariffs, but certainly, the political environment is really tough to read. It just doesn't seem like there's an anti-tariff candidate in the race right now. So I'm wondering where you see the most policy risk, understanding you really can't respond to changes that haven't yet been formally made.

謝謝，麥克。如果我可以偷偷地提出另一個問題，只是為了徵求您對與關稅相關的不同主題的評論，但可以肯定的是，政治環境確實很難理解。目前看來，競選中還沒有反關稅候選人。因此，我想知道您在哪裡看到最大的政策風險，因為您確實無法應對尚未正式做出的變更。

Yes, I'm going to act like I'm at a debate and I'm actually going to go back to the prior question for a second. Because I realized that I was talking specifically about all the tactical things. Ultimately, it comes down to some of the things I talked about in my prepared remarks. It comes down to innovation and products. That's what's going to protect our flank.

是的，我會表現得像在辯論中一樣，實際上我會回到之前的問題。因為我意識到我正在專門談論所有戰術方面的事情。最終，這取決於我在準備好的發言中談到的一些事情。這歸結於創新和產品。這就是保護我們側翼的方法。

I couldn't be more impressed and proud of what the team has introduced over the past three years across every single one of our categories, and we're not done. We've got more coming out. I was very clear. We've cut costs in this business, but I can tell you, we are still spending over 4% of our revenue on R&D. We are going to continue to be the leader from an innovation standpoint.

我對團隊在過去三年中在每個類別中推出的內容印象深刻，並感到非常自豪，而且我們還沒有完成。我們還有更多的產品問世。我很清楚。我們已經削減了這項業務的成本，但我可以告訴你，我們仍然將收入的 4% 以上用於研發。從創新的角度來看，我們將繼續保持領先地位。

And so while those other pieces are interesting in terms of how we run the back end of the business and partnering with the dealers, the innovation is really going to make sure that that's where we keep our foothold in those dealerships. So I just wanted to come back to that.

因此，雖然其他部分在我們如何經營後端業務以及與經銷商合作方面很有趣，但創新確實將確保我們在這些經銷商中站穩腳跟。所以我想回到這個主題。

As it relates to tariffs, it's anyone's guess. We do know that some of the news that's come out recently, there's nothing that impacts our business. We're obviously going to be watching it. I think there's an awful lot of rhetoric right now around elections, and so we've got to put that in context of that's exactly what it is.

由於它與關稅有關，所以這是任何人的猜測。我們確實知道最近發布的一些消息不會影響我們的業務。我們顯然會關注它。我認為現在圍繞選舉有很多言論，所以我們必須將其置於實際情況的背景下。

But we agree with you that the sentiment is not shifting, certainly given some of the geopolitical dynamics that we're dealing with. I've made some comments up front. We're doing what we can to nearshore. where we're pulling things out of China and moving that into either other parts of Asia or into Mexico or North America, where we have less constraints from a tariff, inbound tariff. And we've also reshuffled some things between plants that helps us contend with that.

但我們同意你的觀點，考慮到我們正在應對的一些地緣政治動態，這種情緒肯定沒有改變。我前面已經發表了一些評論。我們正在盡我們所能去近岸。我們將產品從中國撤出，轉移到亞洲其他地區，或墨西哥或北美，在那裡我們受到關稅、入境關稅的限制較少。我們還在工廠之間重新調整了一些東西，以幫助我們應對這個問題。

So we're obviously planning for things to not get any better from where they are. And we've been in that environment now for some time. And then obviously if new tariffs come into place, we'll have to react to that. We've got a great government relations function that stays on top of everything. So as soon as we know where things are headed, we'll react accordingly.

所以我們顯然是在計劃事情不會從現在的情況變得更好。我們處於這種環境已經有一段時間了。顯然，如果新的關稅出台，我們將不得不對此做出反應。我們擁有優秀的政府關係職能，能夠掌控一切。因此，一旦我們知道事情的發展方向，我們就會做出相對應的反應。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Thank you

謝謝

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

大衛‧麥格雷戈，長弓研究中心。

Hi, good morning. This is Joe Nolan on for David. You mentioned that there will be a more meaningful impact from lower shipments on 3Q, but you also have the benefit of shipping the new Scouts continuing into the third quarter. So just wondering if there's any further detail you can provide on cadence there.

嗨，早安。這是大衛的喬諾蘭。您提到，第三季出貨量的下降將會產生更有意義的影響，但您也可以從第三季繼續運送新的偵察兵中受益。所以只是想知道您是否可以提供有關節奏的更多詳細資訊。

And then with the operational savings of $50 million year to date, is it fair to assume that we see a larger balance of that remaining benefit in the third quarter versus the fourth quarter as well?

那麼，今年迄今已節省 5000 萬美元的營運成本，是否可以公平地假設我們在第三季看到的剩餘收益比第四季也有更大的餘額？

Yes, so I'll take the first part of the question. So yes, we will have Scout shipping in Q3. We did start shipping them in Q2. But as Mike said, the cuts are a little bit weighted towards ORV. So just given the magnitude of that business relative to motorcycles, that will sort of offset the benefit of Scout.

是的，所以我將回答問題的第一部分。所以是的，我們將在第三季推出 Scout。我們確實在第二季度開始發貨。但正如 Mike 所說，削減的重點是 ORV。因此，考慮到該業務相對於摩托車的規模，這將在一定程度上抵消 Scout 的優勢。

Q3 is not going to be dramatically lower. It's just -- it's going to be the lower of the next two quarters. Some of that's driven by snow shipments in Q4. In terms of the margin, obviously, the ORV being down hurts more than Scout being up helps.

第三季不會大幅下降。只是——這將是未來兩季中較低的一個。其中一些是由第四季度的雪發貨量推動的。就利潤率而言，顯然，ORV 下跌帶來的傷害比 Scout 上漲帶來的幫助更大。

And in terms of the cost savings, we got $50 million through the first half. We're still targeting to get the $100 million that was embedded, the other $100 million of the $150 million that was embedded in the original guidance in the second half.

就成本節省而言，上半年我們節省了 5,000 萬美元。我們的目標仍然是獲得已嵌入的 1 億美元，即下半年原始指引中嵌入的 1.5 億美元中的另外 1 億美元。

Plus, the additional overdrive that we talked about on slide 13, that will be a little more Q4 weighted than Q3 weighted just because all of those actions take time to flow through the system as we work through the factories.

另外，我們在幻燈片 13 中討論過的額外超速驅動，第四季度的權重將比第三季度的權重稍高一些，因為當我們在工廠工作時，所有這些操作都需要時間通過系統。

In addition to the headcount reductions we've had from an OPEC standpoint, we've had significant headcount reductions at the factories as we've gotten more efficient, both in direct labor and indirect labor, and then obviously cuts related to the volume as well.

除了從歐佩克的角度來看，我們已經削減了員工人數之外，我們還大幅削減了工廠的員工人數，因為我們在直接勞動力和間接勞動力方面都提高了效率，然後明顯與數量相關的削減：出色地。

So part of it is just the efficiency improvements we've been working on, and then some of it's just purely volume takeout. But that impact will be a little bit more beneficial in Q4 than Q3, which is why Q3 we think is going to be the lower quarter.

因此，其中一部分只是我們一直在努力提高效率，有些只是純粹的銷售提升。但這種影響在第四季會比第三季更有利，這就是為什麼我們認為第三季將是較低的季度。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

知道了。好的。這是有道理的。謝謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Perry, Bank of America.

亞歷克斯·佩里，美國銀行。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions here. Just had one. Any way to sort of contextualize how sort of retail played out throughout the quarter? Is it fair to say it may have decelerated through the quarter, and then any significant sort of deviation by segment that is worth calling out? And then is it fair to say that the guidance, it sort of assumes the run rate retail continues, but some upside in on-road due to the incremental launch? Thank you.

你好。感謝您在這裡提出我的問題。剛喝過一張。有什麼方法可以了解整個季度零售業的表現嗎？可以公平地說，該季度的成長速度可能有所放緩，然後各細分市場是否有任何值得指出的重大偏差？那麼，可以公平地說，該指導意見是假設零售運行率繼續存在，但由於增量推出，公路上有一些上升空間嗎？謝謝。

Yes, Q2 was interesting. April was pretty weak. And we've seen that before. We've seen -- sometimes it's weather, sometimes it's just a late start to the season. And obviously, we were watching May intently. And our retail improved in May, and it improved again in June, but obviously well short of where we wanted it to be. And that was really because the underlying industry worsened through the quarter.

是的，第二季度很有趣。四月份的表現相當疲軟。我們以前已經見過這種情況。我們已經看到——有時是天氣原因，有時只是季節開始較晚。顯然，我們正在全神貫注地關注梅。我們的零售業在五月有所改善，六月又有所改善，但顯然遠低於我們想要的水平。這實際上是因為基礎產業整個季度都在惡化。

So obviously, we were playing a lot of offense in there to improve retail. I think it's a big part of why we ended up in the share position that we did. But we certainly saw it weakening. And we obviously -- as we got into late May and into June, that's when we started looking at the production plan and some of the decisions we needed to make.

顯然，我們在那裡採取了許多進攻措施來改善零售業。我認為這是我們最終獲得如此股票地位的重要原因。但我們確實看到它正在減弱。顯然，當我們進入五月底和六月時，我們就開始考慮生產計劃和我們需要做出的一些決定。

We were making real-time adjustments to promo. There was a pretty heavy correlation with the industry starting to turn down in Q2 to what was going on with consumer confidence, consumer sentiment. And so there were just a lot of factors.

我們正在對促銷進行即時調整。該產業在第二季開始下滑與消費者信心、消費者情緒的變化有很大的相關性。所以有很多因素。

I think it's also important to go back in time and realize that was also when the reality around inflation was still persistent. You remember, we were getting north of 3% prints with the Fed having a target of 2%. And the reality around any kind of interest rate move, expectation is starting to dwindle. The mantra of hire for longer really started to come back into view and I think the reality that customers were stretched from a balance sheet standpoint.

我認為，回到過去並認識到當時通貨膨脹的現實仍然持續存在也很重要。你還記得嗎，我們的印數已經超過了 3%，而聯準會的目標是 2%。事實上，圍繞著任何形式的利率變動，預期都開始減弱。長期僱用的口號確實開始重新出現在人們的視野中，我認為從資產負債表的角度來看，客戶的現實是捉襟見肘的。

So all those factors kind of came together through the course of Q2. And we -- I think I give the team a lot of credit. We reacted quickly to be able to get shipments out of the system and to start heading down the path of cost corrections.

因此，所有這些因素在第二季的過程中都聚集在一起。我想我對這個團隊給予了很大的信任。我們迅速做出反應，以便能夠將貨物從系統中取出，並開始走上成本修正的道路。

As we look into Q2, yes, I mean, we talked about it earlier when we were answering the question. I mean, dynamics around snow create a second-half difference to first half where there was really no snow retail, mid-sized motorcycles being driven by our Scout business that we didn't get those into market until late in June. And then the ATV dynamics that I talked about in terms of some of the new products that we've got out, those are really the largest factors that would create any difference between first-half and second-half retail.

當我們研究第二季度時，是的，我的意思是，我們早些時候在回答問題時談到了這一點。我的意思是，雪的動態造成了下半年與上半年的差異，上半年實際上沒有雪零售，中型摩托車由我們的 Scout 業務驅動，直到六月下旬我們才將它們推向市場。然後我談到的 ATV 動態是我們推出的一些新產品，這些確實是造成上半年和下半年零售業差異的最大因素。

Perfect. That's very helpful. Best of luck going forward.

完美的。這非常有幫助。祝你好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Noah Zatskin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Noah Zatskin，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe one that's maybe hit on a bit less frequently, but just wondering if you could kind of speak to how retail's trending internationally and kind of provide any updates on kind of the state of channel inventories overseas. Thanks.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。也許是一個不太頻繁出現的問題，但只是想知道您是否可以談談國際零售業的趨勢，並提供有關海外通路庫存狀況的任何更新。謝謝。

Yes, I'd say weak inventories were probably in a little bit better position. We hadn't fully recovered from some of the dynamics we had with the broader business, but I would tell you that it's pretty weak internationally. Not every country is exactly the same.

是的，我想說的是，庫存疲軟的情況可能會好一點。我們還沒有完全從更廣泛業務的一些動態中恢復過來，但我會告訴你，國際上的情況相當薄弱。並非每個國家都完全相同。

But we've seen pretty much, I would say across the board, not necessarily consistent, but a fair number of dynamics. The good part is that the international component of our company is still less than 15%. So the vast majority of the correction that we've seen has really come out of North America, but we certainly have seen international have the downshift as well.

但我們已經看到了很多，我想說的是全面的，不一定是一致的，但有相當多的動態。好的一點是我們公司的國際成分還不到15%。因此，我們看到的絕大多數調整確實來自北美，但我們當然也看到國際市場也出現了下滑。

Very helpful, and maybe one that's kind of slightly a housekeeping question, but on the $1.40 in kind of the EPS walk versus the $150 million that you've kind of laid out, how should we think about the differences there in terms of maybe categories or buckets?

非常有幫助，也許有點像家務問題，但是就 1.40 美元的 EPS 步行與您所列出的 1.5 億美元相比，我們應該如何考慮可能類別方面的差異還是水桶？

Yes, the categories are pretty similar, actually. The incremental $1.40, which is roughly $100 million, $105 million, is really split pretty evenly between material and logistics, plant overhead spend, and direct labor. Obviously, the direct labor in the first $150 million, that was really driven on efficiencies and lean and the things we're doing in this incremental -- it's more driven by volume and just taking out direct labor because you have less volume going through the factory.

是的，實際上這些類別非常相似。增加的 1.40 美元，大約是 1 億美元、1.05 億美元，實際上在材料和物流、工廠管理費用和直接人工之間相當平均分配。顯然，前1.5 億美元的直接勞動力，實際上是由效率和精益以及我們在增量中所做的事情驅動的——它更多地是由數量驅動的，只是去掉了直接勞動力，因為通過的數量較少。

But we've made good progress on materials, and we think we'll be able to -- in logistics, we'll be able to overdrive some there. And then the plants have done a really nice job on overhead spending and controlling that as volumes have come down. So I would say that the first $150 million is more efficiency related, and the additional is -- probably got a little bit more volume impact built into it, just taking those costs out in line with the volume drop.

但我們在材料方面取得了良好進展，我們認為我們將能夠在物流方面超速發展。然後，這些工廠在管理成本方面做得非常好，並隨著產量的下降而控制了管理成本。因此，我想說，前 1.5 億美元與效率更相關，而額外的費用可能會對銷量產生更多影響，只需根據銷量下降將這些成本扣除即可。

Thank you. Very helpful.

謝謝。非常有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

You're back.

你回來了。

Hey, good morning. Can you hear me? You guys hear me okay?

嘿，早安。你聽得到我嗎？你們聽我說好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Hey, Jim.

嘿，吉姆。

Awesome. Good morning. So you may have already answered a portion of this. I wanted to focus on ORVs just because that's the most important segment and my brain can't keep up with all the moving cars with all these different segments, to be honest. But retail wasn't that bad, right? Down 4% for the second quarter. Maybe speak to the exit rate. Did it get meaningfully worse? And should we be thinking about July as any better or any worse?

驚人的。早安.所以您可能已經回答了其中的一部分。我想專注於 ORV，只是因為這是最重要的部分，老實說，我的大腦無法跟上所有這些不同部分的移動汽車。但零售業並沒有那麼糟糕，對吧？第二季下降 4%。也許談談退出率。情況是否變得更糟了？我們應該考慮七月是好還是壞？

Our ORV business actually picked up a little bit of momentum through the quarter. But I would tell you it was short of our expectations, and it was consistent with what the comments we made, which was the REC side continued to see weakness. We were encouraged with what we saw from XPEDITION, and we were encouraged with what we saw from RANGER.

我們的 ORV 業務實際上在本季度取得了一些成長勢頭。但我會告訴你，這沒有達到我們的預期，並且與我們的評論一致，即 REC 方面繼續疲軟。我們對 XPEDITION 的觀察感到鼓舞，對 RANGER 的觀察也感到鼓舞。

Obviously, RANGER remaining positive through the quarter was a bright spot, but it was still below our expectations. So as we look into the back half, I mean, it really is as simple as the things we laid out.

顯然，RANGER 在本季保持樂觀是一個亮點，但仍低於我們的預期。因此，當我們研究後半部分時，我的意思是，它確實和我們佈置的東西一樣簡單。

I mean, it's -- we kind of assumed it's a little bit more of what we've seen with the exception of a couple of products around snow and mid-size motorcycles and the new ATV launch. They're going to move numbers. Not substantially, but they're going to move number, relative to how they performed in the first half. (Multiple speakers)

我的意思是，我們有點假設它比我們所看到的要多一些，除了一些圍繞雪地和中型摩托車以及新推出的全地形車的產品之外。他們要轉移號碼。幅度不大，但相對於上半場的表現，他們的人數將會有所變動。（多位發言者）

As you think about the retail, I mean, it's a two-part story, right? It's retail being down and down relative to our expectations with the whole industry being down. But also, it's this adjustment of dealer inventory is a big driver in the second half.

當你想到零售業時，我的意思是，這是一個由兩部分組成的故事，對嗎？相對於我們的預期，零售業正在不斷下滑，整個產業都在下滑。而且，經銷商庫存的調整也是下半年的一大推動因素。

When we were looking at taking dealer inventory down 10% for the full year, and now we're going to take it down an incremental 5 to 10 points in the second half of the year that has a bigger impact on second-half shipments.

當我們考慮將全年經銷商庫存降低 10% 時，現在我們將在下半年將其增量降低 5 到 10 個百分點，這對下半年的出貨量產生更大的影響。

Got it. And that's a perfect segue to my second question. So for ORVs, should we be thinking about inventories also being down in that 15% to 20% range? I know that was a whole company sort of target. And is there any way to think about -- it just sounds like inventories are going to be down a lot more than whatever you're assuming for ORV retail.

知道了。這是我的第二個問題的完美延續。那麼對於 ORV 來說，我們是否應該考慮庫存也下降 15% 到 20% 的範圍？我知道這是整個公司的目標。有沒有辦法考慮——聽起來庫存下降的幅度會比你對 ORV 零售的假設下降得多。

I guess, is that accurate? And is there any way, if we zoom out, to then think about those numbers versus pre-pandemic, right? Inventories are down X and retail is whatever it is versus that time. Just want to make sure that as we exit this year, we're in a healthy place relative to history.

我想，這準確嗎？如果我們縮小範圍，有什麼辦法可以將這些數字與疫情前的情況進行比較，對嗎？與當時相比，庫存下降了X，零售情況也一樣。只是想確保，當我們今年退出時，相對於歷史而言，我們處於一個健康的位置。

Yes. I mean, look, we're already below pre-pandemic. We will be at the lowest point that we've been, I think probably since I've been with the company. We are pulling inventory down further than what we expect retail to perform in that business. And it's for the reasons you outlined. We're making sure that we're getting this positioned.

是的。我的意思是，看，我們已經低於大流行前的水平了。我想可能是自從我加入這家公司以來，我們將處於最低點。我們正在進一步降低庫存，這超出了我們對該業務中零售業表現的預期。這是出於您概述的原因。我們正在確保我們能夠做到這一點。

I think if you talk to the dealers, they would say, we like the plan. We'd like them to go faster. So we're obviously trying to make sure we can try and adjust as best we can. But we're reacting in a down market a lot faster than we reacted in an up market, because we largely can control a significant number of the factors now that we've made a call on where we see the retail environment going.

我想如果你和經銷商交談，他們會說，我們喜歡這個計劃。我們希望他們走得更快。因此，我們顯然正在努力確保我們能夠盡最大努力進行調整。但我們在低迷市場中的反應比在高迷市場中的反應要快得多，因為既然我們已經對零售環境的走向做出了預測，那麼我們在很大程度上可以控制大量因素。

But our goal is to get this thing back to a point where we've got dealer inventory on a day sales outstanding perspective. Obviously, I'm not going to give that number, but we're going to have that at the lowest point it's been in a long time to make sure that dealers are healthy and we're in a position to play a lot more offense than defense moving forward.

但我們的目標是讓這件事回到我們在每日銷售方面擁有經銷商庫存的水平。顯然，我不會給出這個數字，但我們將在很長一段時間以來的最低點上保持這一數字，以確保經銷商的健康，並且我們能夠發揮更多的進攻作用比防守向前推進。

Yes, I think this environment is an area where our RFM model versus most of the rest of the industry that just ships in sort of takes orders and ships in truckloads -- we hear the feedback from the dealers. They like our model better. It adjusts better once we get the profiles right.

是的，我認為在這個環境中，我們的 RFM 模型與行業中的大多數其他模型相比，只是接受訂單並用卡車裝運 - 我們聽到了經銷商的反饋。他們更喜歡我們的模型。一旦我們得到正確的配置文件，它就會調整得更好。

So really, what you're seeing is us in discussion with the dealers, resetting the profiles to get dealer inventory down to, as Mike said, what would be the lowest levels, excluding the pandemic obviously, in quite a while and then the impact of that on what we think we can ship in the second half of the year.

所以，實際上，你看到的是我們正在與經銷商討論，重置配置文件，以使經銷商庫存降至，正如邁克所說，在相當長一段時間內，明顯排除大流行的最低水平，然後是影響其中我們認為我們可以在今年下半年發貨。

But that should allow us to exit the year with the profiles and the dealer inventory set up at a level that everyone's comfortable with. And even if retail is -- there's muted growth or no growth next year, we'll be shipping to retail and we'll be in a good position.

但這應該能讓我們在今年結束時將配置和經銷商庫存設置在每個人都滿意的水平上。即使零售業明年成長緩慢或沒有成長，我們也會向零售業出貨，我們將處於有利地位。

Got it. Thanks, Bob. Thanks, Mike.

知道了。謝謝，鮑伯。謝謝，麥克。

You bet.

你打賭。

Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

Sabahat Khan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Great. Thanks and good morning. So you shared a lot of color on sort of the puts and takes you're seeing. Maybe just more from a philosophical perspective, I guess. How much buffer do you think you may be baked into this? We've seen a bunch of guidance cuts across the space, so obviously not a unique phenomenon.

偉大的。謝謝，早安。因此，您對所看到的看跌期權和看跌期權分享了許多色彩。我想，也許更多的是從哲學角度來看。您認為您可能會陷入其中多少緩衝？我們已經看到了一系列跨越該領域的指導，因此顯然不是一個獨特的現象。

But just trying to get an understanding when you were having these discussions on the back of the year -- back half of the year, how much of a sort of a buffer do you think you've built in given sort of the uncertain macro backdrop in the consumer here? Thank you.

但只是想了解一下，當你們在今年下半年進行這些討論時，你們認為在特定的不確定的宏觀背景下，你們已經建立了多少緩衝在消費者這裡？謝謝。

Well, I mean, I guess I'll come at it a different way. We tried to take a very realistic assessment of where we believe the market is headed. We're going more deeply after dealer inventory, which gives us a little bit of room if we see a small amount of variation from a retail.

嗯，我的意思是，我想我會用不同的方式來解決這個問題。我們試圖對我們認為的市場走向進行非常現實的評估。我們將更深入地了解經銷商庫存，如果我們看到與零售的少量差異，這會給我們一點空間。

We've been very deliberate where we see a second half versus first half improvement that it's got to be clear and simple. We've articulated that around snow, mid-sized motorcycles and ATV. And we've rightsized our cost structure.

我們非常謹慎地看到下半場相對於上半場的改進，這必須是清晰和簡單的。我們已經圍繞著雪、中型摩托車和全地形車闡述了這一點。我們也調整了成本結構。

So I mean, look, I'm not going to sit here and try and provide a forecast of what's going to happen with interest rates and where the economy is headed. We are trying to deal with the trends that we've seen. We believe we've got the business in a good position.

所以我的意思是，聽著，我不會坐在這裡嘗試預測利率將會發生什麼以及經濟的走向。我們正在努力應對我們所看到的趨勢。我們相信我們的業務處於有利地位。

But we're going to stay true to what I said at the beginning of the year. It's what guided us in Q2 to do the actions that we had that we're going to work tirelessly to make sure that we're protecting dealer inventory, and we're going to continue to keep the gas on from an innovation standpoint. And between the combination of those two, it should put us in a really good position once this market stabilizes, it starts to get back to a little bit of growth.

但我們將恪守我在年初所說的話。這指導我們在第二季度採取行動，我們將不懈努力，以確保保護經銷商庫存，並且我們將繼續從創新的角度保持活力。在這兩者的結合下，一旦市場穩定下來，我們就會處於一個非常好的位置，它開始恢復一點成長。

Okay, great. And then I guess on the focused cost reduction initiatives that you undertook, I guess, is there room to add those back as the market returns? Or are some of these changes where you think about we can permanently operate without some of these costs? Just trying to understand how much buffer there is to both sides given the evolving macro. Can you add some back quickly if need be and/or optimize a bit further if needed? Thank you.

好的，太好了。然後我想，對於你們所採取的集中成本削減舉措，我想，隨著市場的回歸，是否有空間將這些舉措重新增加？或者您認為其中一些變化我們可以永久運營而無需承擔一些成本？只是想了解考慮到不斷變化的宏觀形勢，雙方還有多少緩衝。如果需要的話，您可以快速添加一些內容和/或如果需要的話進一步優化嗎？謝謝。

So the original guidance included the $150 million of operating cost efficiency improvements, and those will continue. They're in the original guidance and they're in the revised guidance, and those would continue forward.

因此，最初的指導包括 1.5 億美元的營運成本效率改進，而這些將繼續下去。它們包含在原始指南中，也包含在修訂後的指南中，並且這些內容將繼續下去。

The 105 of ops efficiency in the plants, some of that's permanent, some of it is just volume driven where you have less labor, less overhead spend because you're running less through the factory. So some of that will stay, some will not. And then I talked about OPEC where there will be the carryover from the restructuring, but then there will be more profit share next year, which will be a headwind.

工廠中 105 的運作效率，其中一些是永久性的，有些只是數量驅動的，因為您在工廠中運行的時間更少，因此您的勞動力和管理費用更少。所以有些會留下來，有些不會。然後我談到了歐佩克，那裡會有重組帶來的結轉，但明年會有更多的利潤分成，這將是一個逆風。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great, thank you. I wanted to go back to slide 13 just to think about -- because I think it would be helpful to manage expectations a bit beyond just the next two quarters. You talked in the opening remarks about your long-term growth rate for the top line being kind of low to mid-single digits.

太好了，謝謝。我想回到幻燈片 13 來思考一下——因為我認為在接下來的兩個季度之後管理預期會有所幫助。您在開場白中談到，您的長期營收成長率為低至中個位數。

So if you're cutting 15% to 20% this year, and maybe we get back to that long-term rate next year -- I don't know, maybe that's too optimistic, but just a normalized year at some point. Does that mean that when we look at some of the expense drags here, like the plant absorption, the reality is that if you go back to 3% to 5% growth after the 15% to 20% drop, that actually, you won't get most of this back?

因此，如果今年削減 15% 到 20%，也許明年我們會回到長期利率——我不知道，也許這太樂觀了，但在某個時候只是正常化的一年。這是否意味著，當我們考慮這裡的一些費用拖累（例如工廠吸收）時，現實情況是，如果在 15% 到 20% 的下降之後回到 3% 到 5% 的增長，實際上，你不會大部分都拿不回來嗎？

In other words, these are not just sort of one-time cost buckets for -- it's that just sort of thinking about a reasonable expectation that if you're only getting back 3 to 5 points of 20 points of cut that a lot of this volume-mixed plan of absorption you don't necessarily get back, is that reasonable to think that just to kind of keep expectations in check?

換句話說，這些不僅僅是一次性成本桶，而是一種合理的預期，如果你只收回 20 個百分點中的 3 到 5 個百分點，那麼很多這樣的成本您不一定會回來的混合吸收計劃，這樣認為只是為了控制期望是否合理？

Well, I think, Robin -- so if we got back to 3% to 5% growth that would be off of this year's retail, that would assume that next year, absent some other change in dealer inventory, thinking we would be shipping flat to -- we would be shipping to retail. And so this year, we're shipping well below retail to pull dealer inventory down.

好吧，我想，羅賓 - 所以如果我們回到今年零售額的 3% 到 5% 的增長，那就假設明年，如果經銷商庫存沒有其他變化，我們會認為我們的出貨量將持平到--我們將運送到零售店。因此，今年我們的出貨量遠低於零售價，以降低經銷商庫存。

So if we're shipping to retail and we have 3% to 5% growth, then yes, a lot of this would come back in terms of the volume mix and the absorption because we would be shipping at levels that were consistent with prior years. The piece that is hard to guess is where promo goes longer term. Some of that, as Mike said earlier, is going to depend on what competitors do and just where things go in the market.

因此，如果我們向零售業發貨並且增長 3% 到 5%，那麼是的，在數量組合和吸收方面，其中很大一部分會回來，因為我們的發貨水平將與前幾年一致。很難猜測的是促銷活動的長期發展方向。正如麥克之前所說，其中一些將取決於競爭對手的行為以及市場的走向。

I think that that's -- it's not unreasonable to expect that the majority of those volume-driven costs will come back if we are shipping at more historic levels. The challenge is we don't know what's going to happen and what the timing of that's really going to look like. I mean, obviously, the industry has grown at 3% to 5% historically, and we expect that to return once things normalize. The question, as Mike said in his remarks, is we don't know when that happens.

我認為，如果我們的出貨量達到歷史最高水平，那麼預計大部分由數量驅動的成本將會回來，這並不是沒有道理的。挑戰在於我們不知道會發生什麼，也不知道發生的時間到底是什麼樣的。我的意思是，顯然，該行業歷史上以 3% 至 5% 的速度成長，我們預計一旦情況正常化，這種成長將會回歸。正如麥克在演講中所說，問題是我們不知道這種情況何時發生。

Yes. I mean -- I think, Robin, what -- some of the points we're trying to drive is we were targeting substantial operational improvements. My eyes are a lot wider now relative to the opportunity that we have in our factories in terms of really to be able to lever them as we get into a growth environment.

是的。我的意思是——我想，羅賓，我們試圖推動的一些要點是我們的目標是實質的營運改善。相對於我們工廠所擁有的機會，我的視野現在開闊了很多，當我們進入增長環境時，我們確實能夠利用它們。

So these cost reductions plus the volume leverage that we will get when the market returns, coupled with the fact that the reductions that we made to our operating expenses -- I'll come back to the word surgical. We were very specific. I think you see evidence of that in the response I had around the off-road business that we've taken a lot of complexity out of that organization and really tried to streamline and simplify things.

因此，這些成本的降低加上市場回歸時我們將獲得的銷售槓桿，再加上我們對營運費用的削減——我將回到手術這個詞。我們非常具體。我想你可以從我對越野業務的回應中看到證據，我們已經從該組織中消除了很多複雜性，並真正嘗試精簡和簡化事情。

And we believe that when we get back to growth, we will be able to live with that cost structure. That doesn't mean you don't have small things you do here or there, but we've essentially reset the cost structure for this company as we move forward. And I think that's going to put us in a spot to really demonstrate volume leverage and get back to showing a pretty steady cadence of EBITDA improvement as we get towards that mid to high teens EBITDA target that we've got.

我們相信，當我們恢復成長時，我們將能夠接受這種成本結構。這並不意味著你不需要在這裡或那裡做一些小事情，但隨著我們的前進，我們基本上已經重置了這家公司的成本結構。我認為這將使我們能夠真正展示數量槓桿，並在我們實現我們所設定的中高青少年 EBITDA 目標時重新展現出相當穩定的 EBITDA 改善節奏。

Okay, thanks. And then just a quick follow up, in terms of promotional levels, obviously elevated versus last year, but it seems like they're kind of similar to 2019 levels. So should we think about this level of promotions is actually kind of a normal level going forward since it's similar to pre-pandemic? I mean, that wouldn't necessarily revert to what we saw during the pandemic, right? It seems like this is the level of promotions that had been normal before the pandemic.

好的，謝謝。然後快速跟進，就促銷水平而言，與去年相比明顯有所提高，但似乎與 2019 年的水平相似。那麼我們是否應該考慮一下這種促銷水平實際上是未來的正常水平，因為它與大流行前相似？我的意思是，這不一定會回到我們在大流行期間看到的情況，對吧？這似乎是大流行之前的正常促銷水平。

Yes, I would say that the promotion levels are getting closer to '19. They're not fully back to '19, but they're getting a lot closer, at least they were on a percent of sales. I think, going forward, I do think that as the industry -- assuming the industry all adjusts to operating at a lower level of dealer inventory, which had been the goal coming out of the pandemic, I think that you'll see promotions start to moderate.

是的，我想說的是，晉升等級越來越接近 19 年了。他們還沒有完全回到 19 年，但已經很接近了，至少他們的銷售額佔了一定比例。我認為，展望未來，我確實認為，假設整個行業都調整為以較低的經銷商庫存水平運營（這是擺脫大流行的目標），我認為您會看到促銷活動開始適度。

Right now, there's a lot of promo out there to clear 2023 models. There are certain manufacturers that still have a lot of non-current inventory. Some have cleared a lot out. We believe we have the cleanest inventory.

現在，有許多促銷活動可以清除 2023 年車型。某些製造商仍然有大量非流動庫存。有些已經清理了很多。我們相信我們擁有最乾淨的庫存。

I think as that stuff subsides and dealer inventory comes down, is there an opportunity for less promotions? Sure. Do we know what's going to happen? No, because it's obviously a pretty dynamic environment, and we're only one player in the industry. But I think, to your question, I do think that they are relatively close on a percent of sales to '19.

我認為隨著這種情況的消退和經銷商庫存的下降，是否有機會減少促銷活動？當然。我們知道會發生什麼事嗎？不，因為這顯然是一個非常動態的環境，而我們只是這個行業的參與者之一。但我認為，對於你的問題，我確實認為他們的銷售額百分比與 19 年相對接近。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session and today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。