Polaris Inc (PII) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Polaris third quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Polaris 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to J.C. Weigelt, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 J.C. Weigelt。請繼續。

Thank you, Rocco, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. I'm J.C. Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations at Polaris. Thank you for joining us for our 2024 third quarter quarter earnings call. We will reference a slide presentation today, which is accessible on our website at ir.polaris.com.

謝謝羅科，大家早安或下午好。我是 J.C. Weigelt，Polaris 投資者關係副總裁。感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天我們將參考幻燈片演示，您可以在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上存取該演示文稿。

Joining me on the call today are Mike Speetzen, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Mack, our Chief Financial Officer. Both have prepared remarks summarizing the third quarter as well as our expectations for the remainder of 2024. Then we'll take your questions.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Mike Speetzen；和我們的財務長鮑伯·麥克。雙方都準備了總結第三季的演講以及我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的預期。然後我們將回答您的問題。

During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward-looking for the purpose of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2023 10-K for additional details regarding risks and uncertainties.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論各種主題，就 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》而言，這些主題應被視為具有前瞻性。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。您可以參閱我們的 2023 10-K，以了解有關風險和不確定性的更多詳細資訊。

All references to the third quarter actual results and 2024 guidance are for our continuing operations and are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis, unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of the presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments.

除非另有說明，所有對第三季實際業績和 2024 年指引的引用均適用於我們的持續經營業務，並按調整後的非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 基礎進行報告。請參閱簡報末尾的 Reg G 調整表，以了解 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整。

Now I will turn the call over to Mike Speetzen. Go ahead, Mike.

現在我將把電話轉給 Mike Speetzen。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks, J.C., and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before we get started, I want to take a minute to acknowledge the immense devastation resulting from Hurricane Helene and Milton.

謝謝，J.C.，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。在我們開始之前，我想花一點時間承認颶風海倫和米爾頓造成的巨大破壞。

Our team has been checking in with our dealers and impacted areas, and we've provided support, sending Polaris RANGERs to assist, search and rescue teams and traveling to hard-to-reach areas and we donated Polaris generators to those without power.

我們的團隊一直在與我們的經銷商和受影響的地區進行核實，我們提供了支持，派遣北極星遊騎兵去協助、搜索和救援團隊，並前往難以到達的地區，我們向那些沒有電力的人捐贈了北極星發電機。

Polaris and Polaris employees have also donated generously to the Red Cross, Salvation Army, and other organizations to help with the costs associated with the devastation from these massive storms. On behalf of the Polaris team, I want to send our thoughts and prayers to those impacted by the storm.

北極星和北極星員工也向紅十字會、救世軍和其他組織慷慨捐款，以幫助支付與這些大規模風暴造成的破壞相關的費用。我謹代表北極星團隊向受風暴影響的人們致以我們的思念和祈禱。

Now on to our Q3 update. In July, we told you we were taking actions to lower production and shipments to protect our dealer network during challenging macroeconomic backdrop. As a result, our third quarter sales dropped 23%.

現在進入我們的第三季更新。七月，我們告訴過您，我們正在採取行動降低產量和出貨量，以在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟背景下保護我們的經銷商網路。結果，我們第三季的銷售額下降了 23%。

This included additional shipment cuts during the quarter in response to a lower-than-anticipated retail environment. While these actions negatively impacted our short-term results, they were a necessary move to support our strong partnership with dealers and to hold firm to our commitment to reduce dealer inventory.

這包括本季因零售環境低於預期而進一步削減出貨量。雖然這些行動對我們的短期業績產生了負面影響，但它們是支持我們與經銷商建立牢固合作夥伴關係並堅定地履行我們減少經銷商庫存承諾的必要舉措。

As I discussed on our Q2 earnings call, we continue to make prudent moves to manage profitability in this part of the cycle while remaining focused on our long-term strategy. That includes delivering exceptional customer experience through a strong, healthy dealer network, investing in innovation to fuel future growth and maintaining agile and efficient operations.

正如我在第二季財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們將繼續採取謹慎的舉措來管理週期這一部分的盈利能力，同時繼續關注我們的長期戰略。這包括透過強大、健康的經銷商網路提供卓越的客戶體驗、投資創新以推動未來成長以及保持靈活高效的營運。

Our size and scale in the industry as well as our consistent focus positions us to outperform competitors as markets stabilize. I'm pleased with our progress through the third quarter on reducing dealer inventory as we are now below where we started the year.

隨著市場穩定，我們在行業中的規模和規模以及我們一貫的專注使我們能夠超越競爭對手。我對第三季在減少經銷商庫存方面取得的進展感到滿意，因為我們現在的庫存水準低於年初的水準。

With lower-than-expected retail in the third quarter and the year, we again lowered our shipment expectations to ensure we meet our commitments to bring ORV dealer inventory down 15% to 20%. We expect this challenging retail environment to persist into next year, and as such, we will continue to protect dealers through superior inventory management.

由於第三季和今年的零售低於預期，我們再次降低了出貨預期，以確保履行將 ORV 經銷商庫存降低 15% 至 20% 的承諾。我們預計這種充滿挑戰的零售環境將持續到明年，因此，我們將繼續透過卓越的庫存管理來保護經銷商。

I'll talk more about promotions in the following slide, but I want to note here that throughout the third quarter, we observed a higher-than-expected promotional environment as other OEMs continue to deal with elevated inventory levels and higher-than-normal noncurrent inventory.

我將在下一張幻燈片中詳細討論促銷活動，但我想在此指出，在整個第三季度，我們觀察到促銷環境高於預期，因為其他原始設備製造商繼續應對庫存水平升高和高於正常水準的問題非流動庫存。

As a result, these other OEMs are aggressively promoting to move these vehicles in a challenging retail environment. Some of this promotional activity is driving unsustainable short-term share movements as these OEMs focus on cleaning up unhealthy inventory.

因此，這些其他原始設備製造商正在積極推動在充滿挑戰的零售環境中運輸這些車輛。由於這些原始設備製造商專注於清理不健康的庫存，其中一些促銷活動正在推動不可持續的短期份額變動。

While we will not chase many of these aggressive promotional moves, the elevated level drove higher costs for Polaris as we targeted specific segments to protect. Our margins saw added pressure from the additional shipment reductions as well as higher promotional costs within the quarter.

雖然我們不會追逐這些激進的促銷舉措，但由於我們針對特定細分市場進行保護，因此較高的水平導致北極星的成本更高。本季出貨量的額外減少以及促銷成本的增加給我們的利潤帶來了更大的壓力。

This resulted in a gross margin profit decline of 184 basis points and an adjusted EPS decrease of 73%. Elevated competitive dealer inventory, coupled with the promotional behavior I just spoke to has led to choppy market share results.

這導致毛利率下降 184 個基點，調整後每股盈餘下降 73%。競爭激烈的經銷商庫存增加，加上我剛才談到的促銷行為，導致了市場份額的波動。

While share was down across our segments in the quarter, year to date and on a rolling 12-month basis, we've held share in ORV with strength in RANGER and Polaris XPEDITION. I couldn't be prouder of our team's continued focus on improving our operational effectiveness to position us to emerge from this period as a stronger, more efficient and better company.

雖然本季、年初至今以及連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們各細分市場的份額均有所下降，但我們憑藉 RANGER 和 Polaris XPEDITION 的優勢，持有 ORV 份額。我為我們的團隊持續專注於提高營運效率而感到無比自豪，以使我們能夠從這段時期成為一家更強大、更有效率和更好的公司。

Outside of innovation, our largest focus is on continuing to enhance our overall operating effectiveness and to drive strong LEAN practices, improve supply chain, logistics and operations. Last quarter, I mentioned improvements in achieving our build schedules, and I think it's important for me to continue to provide you with proof points and evidence of our progress.

除了創新之外，我們最大的重點是持續提高整體營運效率，推動強而有力的精實實踐，改善供應鏈、物流和營運。上個季度，我提到了在實現建置計劃方面的改進，我認為繼續向您提供我們進展的證明點和證據對我來說很重要。

For example, within one of our largest plants, we've seen output increase by approximately 20% compared to historic levels with the same amount of labor input. At our largest plant, we've seen an almost 10% increase in vehicles coming off the line clean compared to 2023.

例如，在我們最大的工廠之一內，與相同勞動力投入量的歷史水準相比，我們的產量增加了約 20%。在我們最大的工廠，我們發現與 2023 年相比，下線的清潔車輛數量增加了近 10%。

We currently have the fewest number of ORV vehicles on hold in our factory since before the pandemic. This marks a 50% decrease in rework. Lastly, we achieved a 7% reduction in our per hour plant costs at two of our larger plants.

目前，我們工廠擱置的 ORV 車輛數量是疫情爆發前以來最少的。這標誌著返工量減少了 50%。最後，我們兩個較大的工廠的每小時工廠成本降低了 7%。

This past quarter, I spent time in Huntsville and Monterrey talking to our manufacturing leaders and teams on the line. I saw firsthand how much progress we are making to improve working conditions, making it easier for them to do their jobs and driving improved efficiencies.

上個季度，我在亨茨維爾和蒙特雷與我們的製造領導者和線上團隊進行了交談。我親眼目睹了我們在改善工作條件、讓他們更輕鬆地完成工作並提高效率方面取得了多大進展。

By eliminating redundancies and inefficiencies in our manufacturing processes, we've enabled a more productive and cost-effective use of our skilled labor force. We're also recognizing savings in areas such as material and logistics, and we continue to closely monitor hiring and spending to align with the current demand environment.

透過消除製造流程中的冗餘和低效率，我們能夠更有效率、更經濟地利用我們的熟練勞動力。我們也認識到材料和物流等領域的節省，我們將繼續密切監控招聘和支出，以適應當前的需求環境。

Innovation is the lifeblood of our industry, and we remain committed to strategically spending on key R&D investments. Polaris is and will remain the innovation leader in our industry, it is what we're known for, and it is what will enable us to emerge from these challenging times as a better positioned company.

創新是我們產業的命脈，我們仍然致力於對關鍵研發投資進行策略性支出。北極星現在並將繼續是我們行業的創新領導者，這是我們聞名的原因，也是我們能夠擺脫這個充滿挑戰的時代，成為一家定位更佳的公司的原因。

With the new product introductions we've made over the past 18 months, we have the most compelling lineup of products as we enter 2025, and we also have exciting new products set to launch next year. Third quarter retail was down 7%, which was slightly below our expectations, driven by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates and financially stressed consumers.

透過過去 18 個月推出的新產品，進入 2025 年，我們擁有最引人注目的產品陣容，我們也將在明年推出令人興奮的新產品。由於持續通膨、利率上升和消費者面臨財務壓力，第三季零售業下降 7%，略低於我們的預期。

While it was encouraging to see the Fed take action with a 50 basis point rate cut in September, we're not seeing any immediate impact on retail, and we do not believe one cut will stimulate demand in this environment.

雖然看到聯準會在 9 月採取降息 50 個基點的行動令人鼓舞，但我們沒有看到對零售業產生任何直接影響，我們認為在這種環境下一次降息不會刺激需求。

Consumers remain cautious with discretionary spending, especially for larger purchases, and it will likely take more interest rate cuts and time to improve the financial position before spending returns on pre-pandemic levels.

消費者對可自由支配的支出仍然持謹慎態度，尤其是對於大額購買，並且可能需要更多的降息和時間來改善財務狀況，然後支出回報才能恢復到大流行前的水平。

Specifically within Off-Road, utility was down low single digits with RANGER slightly outperforming ATVs. While recreation was down for the eighth straight quarter, growth in crossover was a bright spot at over 25%, led by the Polaris XPEDITION.

特別是在越野領域，實用性下降了低個位數，其中 RANGER 的表現略勝於全地形車。雖然娛樂業務連續第八個季度下滑，但跨界遊戲成長超過 25%，成為亮點，其中以 Polaris XPEDITION 為首。

Feedback coming out of our dealer meeting in August was positive, with dealers appreciating our candor around the industry and our commitment to lower inventory. Dealers also responded well to the pricing updates we made as well as the new RZR Pro lineup.

我們八月份的經銷商會議得到的反饋是積極的，經銷商讚賞我們對行業的坦誠以及我們對降低庫存的承諾。經銷商對我們的定價更新以及新的 RZR Pro 系列也反應良好。

On-Road retail in Q3 was driven by softness in the heavyweight segment given recent competitive launches in an overall weak industry. Despite that, we continue to hold our number one share position in the midsized segment. We expect On-Road retail to remain soft for the remainder of the year.

鑑於最近在整體疲軟的行業中推出了競爭性產品，第三季的公路零售受到重量級細分市場疲軟的推動。儘管如此，我們仍然保持著中型市佔率第一的位置。我們預計道路零售在今年剩餘時間內將保持疲軟。

In Marine, Pontoon retail was down high teens with better performance from Bennington. We were encouraged by orders coming out of our summer dealer meeting driven by innovation across all of our brands. As I mentioned earlier, the promotional environment remains elevated as OEMs and dealers continue to face specific pockets of unhealthy inventory levels.

在海事方面，Pontoon 的零售額下降了十多歲，而 Bennington 的表現較好。我們對夏季經銷商會議上的訂單感到鼓舞，這些訂單是由我們所有品牌的創新所推動的。正如我之前提到的，由於原始設備製造商和經銷商繼續面臨特定的不健康庫存水平，促銷環境仍然較高。

To be clear, from the standpoint of current and noncurrent inventory, we are well within historic norms. This is not the case with other OEMs who have put increased pressure on dealers to move older noncurrent inventory which has been a burden on dealers profitability for far too long.

需要明確的是，從當前和非當前庫存的角度來看，我們完全符合歷史標準。其他原始設備製造商的情況並非如此，它們對經銷商施加了越來越大的壓力，要求他們轉移舊的非流動庫存，這長期以來一直是經銷商盈利能力的負擔。

As a result of investments we've made over the past several years, we were able to be surgical about where and when we allocate promotional dollars. Where it makes sense from a retail and profitability standpoint, we've added promotions, but there are also situations where OEMs and dealers are running aggressive promotions and taking losses on vehicles to help correct their inventory position.

由於我們過去幾年的投資，我們能夠在何時何地分配促銷資金。從零售和盈利的角度來看，我們增加了促銷活動，但在某些情況下，原始設備製造商和經銷商會進行積極的促銷活動，並承擔車輛損失，以幫助糾正庫存狀況。

In those situations, we have decided not to participate. We view these as extreme and aggressive promotional strategies as temporary and driven by both dealers and OEMs cleaning up noncurrent inventory as quickly as possible.

在這種情況下，我們決定不參與。我們認為這些極端且激進的促銷策略是暫時的，是由經銷商和原始設備製造商盡快清理非流動庫存所推動的。

Sentiment from dealers remains focused on their inventory position as they navigate a lower retail and higher interest rate environment. We continue to work towards our goal of reducing inventory by 15% to 20% this year, and the actions required to get there are well underway.

經銷商的情緒仍然集中在他們的庫存狀況上，因為他們面臨零售較低和利率較高的環境。我們將繼續努力實現今年將庫存減少 15% 至 20% 的目標，並且實現這一目標所需的行動正在順利進行中。

Fourth quarter shipments are currently planned to be well below retail. As we continue to work with dealers through this transition, they have stated that they appreciate the partnership and our willingness to offer several months of free flooring as we work towards our dealer inventory targets.

目前計劃第四季的出貨量將遠低於零售量。當我們在這段過渡期間繼續與經銷商合作時，他們表示感謝我們的合作夥伴關係以及我們願意在我們努力實現經銷商庫存目標時提供幾個月的免費地板。

Again, our goal is to provide a bit of relief for our dealers as we wait for a cyclical recovery in consumer discretionary spending patterns. And while this effort is having a negative impact across our business, we view it as a crucial step in the long-term collective success of Polaris and our dealers.

同樣，我們的目標是在等待消費者可自由支配支出模式週期性復甦時為我們的經銷商提供一些緩解。雖然這項努力對我們的業務產生了負面影響，但我們認為這是北極星和經銷商長期集體成功的關鍵一步。

I'm now going to turn it over to Bob to provide you with more detail on our financials. Bob?

我現在將把它交給鮑勃，向您提供有關我們財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。鮑伯？

Thanks, Mike, and good morning or afternoon to everyone on the call today. Third quarter sales declined 23% versus last year. The decline was driven by our decision to actively reduce dealer inventory in the second half of the year by shipping less product to dealers. The drop in sales was slightly more than expected given lower retail in the quarter, which caused us to take out more shipments than originally scheduled.

謝謝麥克，今天與會的每個人都早安或下午好。第三季銷售額比去年同期下降 23%。這一下降是由於我們決定在下半年透過減少向經銷商運送產品來積極減少經銷商庫存。鑑於本季零售量下降，銷售額下降幅度略高於預期，這導致我們的出貨量超出了原定計畫。

Mix was negative and net price continued to be a headwind for our financials as the promotional environment remained elevated. PG&A sales were negatively impacted by the lower factory shipments and slower whole goods retail. We also continue to see pressure from snow inventory left over from last year's weak season.

由於促銷環境仍然較高，混合是負面的，淨價繼續成為我們財務的阻力。PG&A 的銷售受到工廠出貨量下降和整體商品零售放緩的負面影響。我們還繼續看到去年淡季留下的積雪壓力。

Gross profit margins were negatively impacted by our decision to cut shipments along with lower mix and elevated promotions. Improvement in our factory operations and supply chain execution provided a benefit of six points to gross margin versus the prior year, but this was partially offset by a three-point headwind from lower absorption. The workforce reduction that took place in July also had a positive impact on EBITDA. However, this was not enough to offset the headwinds I just referenced.

我們決定削減出貨量以及減少產品組合和加強促銷活動，這對毛利率產生了負面影響。我們工廠營運和供應鏈執行的改善使毛利率比上年提高了 6 個百分點，但這被吸收率下降帶來的 3 個百分點的不利影響部分抵消了。7 月發生的裁員也對 EBITDA 產生了正面影響。然而，這還不足以抵銷我剛才提到的不利因素。

Turning to Off-Road. Sales were down 24% due to lower volume and negative mix. Given the snow season is just beginning, I will focus my comments on Off-Road vehicles or ORV, including ATVs and side-by-sides. North American ORV retail in the quarter was down 3% with weakness in RZR and ATVs, partially offset by strength in the crossover category.

轉向越野。由於銷量下降和負面影響，銷售額下降了 24%。鑑於雪季剛開始，我將集中評論越野車或 ORV，包括全地形車和並排車。由於 RZR 和 ATV 的疲軟，本季北美 ORV 零售量下降了 3%，但部分被跨界車類別的強勢所抵消。

As Mike noted, Polaris Ranger retail was down low single digits. We believe the ORV industry was also down low single digits and continues to deal with headwinds from higher interest rates, inflation and lower discretionary spending for big-ticket items.

正如麥克指出的那樣，北極星遊騎兵零售額下降了低個位數。我們認為 ORV 產業也出現了低個位數的下滑，並繼續面臨利率上升、通貨膨脹和大件商品可自由支配支出減少等不利因素。

Share loss in the quarter was moderate and driven more by specific actions from other OEMs to manage their own inventory challenges than by fundamental share shifts. We do not believe these tactics to be sustainable. And therefore, if you look at share on a longer-term basis, we have held ORV share year to date.

本季的份額損失不大，更多是由於其他原始設備製造商為應對自身庫存挑戰而採取的具體行動，而不是基本份額變化。我們認為這些策略不可持續。因此，如果你從長期的角度來看股票，我們今年迄今一直持有 ORV 股票。

Gross profit margin was negatively impacted by absorption at our plants due to lower volumes, mix and net pricing as we continue to see meaningful year over year headwinds from an elevated promotional environment. These headwinds were partially offset by the improvement in operations costs that I referenced earlier, which primarily benefited the Off-Road business.

由於銷售量、產品組合和淨定價較低，我們工廠的吸收量對毛利率產生了負面影響，因為我們繼續看到促銷環境加劇帶來的逐年不利因素。這些不利因素被我之前提到的營運成本的改善所部分抵消，這主要有利於越野業務。

As we look to the fourth quarter, snow shipments will ramp as we ship into the season but we still expect total shipment volumes for the segment to be down meaningfully both sequentially and year over year, given the decisions we made in July and September to actively manage dealer inventory by shipping less product.

展望第四季度，隨著我們進入季節，雪的發貨量將會增加，但鑑於我們在7 月和9 月做出的​​決定，我們仍然預計該細分市場的總發貨量將連續和同比大幅下降。

While promotions are expected to remain elevated, we expect the year over year headwind to abate given this elevated promotional environment began in the fourth quarter of 2023. Therefore, we expect gross profit margin to be flat to up slightly compared to last year, factoring in the absorption headwind, neutral net price and operational savings.

雖然促銷活動預計將繼續保持較高水平，但鑑於 2023 年第四季開始的促銷環境有所改善，我們預計同比逆風將會減弱。因此，考慮到吸收逆風、中性淨價和營運節省，我們預計毛利率將與去年持平或略有上升。

Switching to On-Road. Sales during the quarter were down 13%, reflecting the broader industry contraction of almost 10% in North America. Indian motorcycles lost modest share during the quarter driven by weakness in the heavyweight category, somewhat offset by share gains in midsize.

切換到公路行駛。本季銷售額下降 13%，反映了北美更廣泛的行業萎縮近 10%。由於重型摩托車市場疲軟，印度摩托車本季的市佔率略有下降，但在一定程度上被中型摩托車市場份額的成長所抵消。

We saw good momentum exiting the quarter and expect modest share gains through the end of the year with momentum from the [Summer Scout] launch and targeted promotions on heavyweights. The drop in gross profit margin was driven by negative mix given the weakness on the heavyweight side and lower absorption, partially offset by operations benefit.

我們看到了本季度的良好勢頭，並預計在 [Summer Scout] 的推出和重量級產品的針對性促銷活動的推動下，到年底份額將小幅增長。鑑於權重股的疲軟和吸收率較低，毛利率下降是由負面組合推動的，但部分被營運效益所抵消。

I do want to remind you that in the fourth quarter of 2023, we booked a sizable onetime warranty expense in our European business, Goupil that is expected to provide a year over year benefit to the comparable gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of this year. This benefit is expected to be partially offset by headwinds from mix and price.

我確實想提醒您，在 2023 年第四季度，我們在歐洲業務 Goupil 中預訂了相當大的一次性保固費用，預計將為今年第四季度的可比毛利率帶來同比收益。預計這一收益將被產品組合和價格的不利因素部分抵消。

In Marine, sales were down 36% as the industry continues to be challenged by elevated dealer inventory levels and higher interest rates impacting consumers' decision to purchase. As we continue to reduce shipments in the quarter, we have brought marine dealer inventory down by approximately 35% versus the beginning of the year.

在船舶領域，銷售額下降了 36%，因為該行業繼續面臨經銷商庫存水準上升和利率上升影響消費者購買決定的挑戰。隨著本季出貨量的持續減少，船舶經銷商的庫存比年初減少了約 35%。

As Mike noted, we did see positive momentum from our August dealer meetings with the innovation across our portfolio. Our current plan reflects fulfillment of these orders taking place in the next few quarters. Gross profit margin was down given negative mix and volume pressure driving less fixed cost absorption.

正如麥克指出的那樣，我們確實從 8 月的經銷商會議中看到了我們產品組合創新的積極勢頭。我們目前的計劃反映了在未來幾季內履行這些訂單的情況。由於負面組合和銷量壓力導致固定成本吸收減少，毛利率下降。

We also had some part shortages during the quarter as we shifted towards production of model year 2025 boats. We believe our challenges with these suppliers are resolved, and we do not expect further impacts in the fourth quarter.

由於我們轉向生產 2025 年型號的船隻，本季我們也出現了一些零件短缺的情況。我們相信我們與這些供應商的挑戰已經解決，我們預計第四季度不會產生進一步的影響。

Moving to our financial position. We are lowering our expectations for cash generation this year due to our updated business performance with less cash from earnings. We're driving working capital savings through reductions in inventory, specifically in raw materials.

轉向我們的財務狀況。由於我們更新的業務業績以及來自收益的現金減少，我們降低了今年現金產生的預期。我們透過減少庫存（特別是原材料）來節省營運資金。

Our finished goods will take longer to normalize as we balance keeping our plants running efficiently based on committed levels of raw material inflow and dealer inventory level. We expect to end the year with our share count flat year over year and remain committed to our goal of reducing the number of basic shares outstanding by 10%.

我們的成品將需要更長的時間才能正常化，因為我們根據承諾的原材料流入水準和經銷商庫存水準來平衡維持工廠高效運作。我們預計到年底時我們的股票數量將同比持平，並繼續致力於實現將已發行基本股數量減少 10% 的目標。

Year to -date, we use cash to continue to fund our investments in innovation and key strategic capital projects and returned over $190 million to stockholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. We remain confident in our financial position and are driving our teams to improve working capital in this part of the economic cycle.

今年迄今為止，我們繼續使用現金為創新和關鍵策略資本項目的投資提供資金，並以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還超過 1.9 億美元。我們對我們的財務狀況仍然充滿信心，並正在推動我們的團隊改善經濟週期這一階段的營運資本。

Now let us move to guidance and our updated expectations for 2024. As we discussed last quarter, we plan to reduce dealer inventory by 15% to 20% for the fiscal year, better positioning us and our dealers for a continued challenging market environment in 2025. This commitment requires alignment with current retail trends, our shipments and dealer inventory positions.

現在讓我們談談 2024 年的指導和更新的預期。正如我們上季度討論的那樣，我們計劃在本財年將經銷商庫存減少 15% 至 20%，從而使我們和我們的經銷商更好地應對 2025 年持續充滿挑戰的市場環境。這項承諾需要與當前的零售趨勢、我們的出貨和經銷商庫存狀況保持一致。

Given this, coupled with softer-than-expected retail performance in the quarter, we needed to further reduce our shipments. This results in further pressure on our business heading into the fourth quarter and thus a reduction in guidance. Therefore, volume is expected to be a bigger headwind than we originally modeled for the fourth quarter.

有鑑於此，加上本季零售業業績低於預期，我們需要進一步減少出貨量。這導致我們進入第四季度的業務面臨進一步壓力，從而導致指導意見的減少。因此，成交量預計將比我們最初為第四季建模的阻力更大。

We expect modest pressure on EBITDA margins as the volume and mix headwinds are mostly offset by the workforce reduction actions we took in July as well as easier comps due to onetime expenses we had last year in On-Road, which I already discussed and product liability, which was elevated in Q4 2023.

我們預計EBITDA 利潤率將面臨適度的壓力，因為銷售和組合方面的不利因素大部分被我們7 月份採取的裁員行動所抵消，以及由於我們去年在路上的一次性費用（我已經討論過）和產品責任而導致的更容易的補償，該數字在 2023 年第四季有所上升。

I want to make a point regarding our operations and the journey we are on to realize greater efficiencies through our own plants. We had a target this year of realizing approximately $150 million in operational efficiencies through [lean] and clean materials and logistics.

我想談談我們的營運以及我們透過自己的工廠實現更高效率的旅程。我們今年的目標是透過[精益]和清潔材料和物流實現約 1.5 億美元的營運效率。

What was not in our plan as we entered the year was approximately $140 million of negative absorption that we expect this year due to volume cuts. I'm proud to say that our teams have done a great job finding opportunities to overcome this headwind with evidence provided by Mike earlier as well as within materials, logistics and other areas.

進入今年時，我們的計劃中沒有包含約 1.4 億美元的負吸收，我們預計今年由於銷量減少而產生了約 1.4 億美元的負吸收。我很自豪地說，我們的團隊在尋找機會克服這一不利因素方面做得非常出色，麥克之前提供了證據，並在材料、物流和其他領域提供了證據。

We expect to end the year realizing close to $280 million of operating efficiencies, which more than offset the expected negative absorption that should help create greater earnings power as we emerge from this part of the cycle. The immediate of the hurricanes experienced in the last few weeks were immaterial to Q3 financially.

我們預計年底將實現近 2.8 億美元的營運效率，足以抵消預期的負吸收，這將有助於在我們擺脫週期的這一部分時創造更大的盈利能力。過去幾週經歷的颶風對第三季的財務影響並不重要。

However, we expect some longer-term disruption to impact the geographies that we will need to manage through from a retail perspective. More importantly, we are doing all that we can to help the impacted communities recover. Our guidance reflects our team's current year-end projections and incorporates current retail trends, and our commitment to reduce dealer inventory by 15% to 20% relative to last year.

然而，我們預期一些長期的干擾會影響我們需要從零售角度管理的地區。更重要的是，我們正在盡一切努力幫助受影響的社區恢復。我們的指導反映了我們團隊目前的年終預測，並結合了當前的零售趨勢，以及我們將經銷商庫存比去年減少 15% 至 20% 的承諾。

I want to reiterate what I said last quarter and say that many of these headwinds are not traditionally experienced in an industry that has typically grown low to mid-single digits annually from a unit perspective. This is a unique period where we see our partnership with dealers as more important than short-term wins and believe the actions we are taking this year set us up for long-term success in the market.

我想重申我上個季度所說的話，並指出，從單位角度來看，這些不利因素中的許多因素在一個通常每年以低至中個位數增長的行業中並不經歷過。這是一個獨特的時期，我們認為與經銷商的合作關係比短期勝利更重要，並相信我們今年採取的行動將為我們在市場上長期成功奠定基礎。

We have a long record of driving innovation that leads to enhanced value for our customers and margin expansion for our business. You can see the improvements we are making this year on operating efficiencies, and this is just the beginning.

我們在推動創新方面有著悠久的記錄，這些創新為我們的客戶帶來了更高的價值，並擴大了我們的業務利潤。您可以看到我們今年在營運效率方面所做的改進，而這只是開始。

It continues to be a meaningful opportunity to expand margins in future years. We've also been a strong cash generation business with low working capital requirements, allowing us to invest in ourselves as well as maintaining our record of consistent dividend payments and opportunistic share buybacks.

這仍然是未來幾年擴大利潤的有意義的機會。我們也是一家強大的現金產生業務，營運資本要求低，使我們能夠進行自我投資，並維持持續支付股利和機會性股票回購的記錄。

Although the timing is uncertain, we have a positive outlook on our business from the perspective of sales growth, margin expansion, cash generation and attractive returns. We believe the decisions we are making today are in the best interest of all our stakeholders, including customers, dealers, employees and our stockholders.

儘管時機不確定，但從銷售成長、利潤擴張、現金產生和有吸引力的回報的角度來看，我們對我們的業務前景持樂觀態度。我們相信我們今天所做的決定符合我們所有利害關係人的最佳利益，包括客戶、經銷商、員工和股東。

With that, I will turn it back over to Mike to wrap up the call. Go ahead, Mike.

這樣，我會將其轉回給麥克來結束通話。繼續吧，麥克。

Thanks, Bob. Reflecting on my 2024 forward-looking comments from last year at this time, I can't help but notice how many of the headwinds we discussed remain relevant as we enter 2025. We're staying true to our cautious approach regarding consumer trends, and we'll continue to remain agile to align with demand trends.

謝謝，鮑伯。回顧去年我對 2024 年的前瞻性評論，我不禁注意到，我們討論的許多不利因素在進入 2025 年時仍然具有相關性。我們對消費者趨勢保持謹慎態度，並將繼續保持敏捷性以適應需求趨勢。

We do not expect a significant change in demand as we move through the end of 2024 and into 2025. While it's encouraging to see the Fed cut rates, we believe more needs to be done and to get consumers back into dealerships.

我們預計，隨著 2024 年底和 2025 年的到來，需求不會有重大變化。雖然聯準會降息令人鼓舞，但我們認為還需要做更多工作才能讓消費者重返經銷商。

With adjusted dealer inventory profiles [and RFM], additional flooring support and reduced shipments, we are working hard to ensure dealers know Polaris as their partner of choice and that we have a vested interest in their success.

透過調整經銷商庫存概況 [和 RFM]、額外的地板支援和減少的出貨量，我們正在努力確保經銷商知道 Polaris 是他們的首選合作夥伴，並且我們對他們的成功有既得利益。

We expect Polaris dealer inventory to be well below historical trends in terms of days sales outstanding as we head into 2025. This, coupled with lower interest rates means dealers should see reductions in flooring costs associated with their Polaris inventory.

我們預計，隨著 2025 年的到來，Polaris 經銷商庫存的應收帳款天數將遠低於歷史趨勢。再加上較低的利率，意味著經銷商應該會看到與北極星庫存相關的地板成本下降。

I know many of you are building out your models for 2025, and I want to be clear that while it may be easy to think of all the headwinds this year will turn into tailwinds next year, it's not that simple. We are not predicting a retail rebound in 2025 at this point.

我知道你們中的許多人正在建立 2025 年的模型，我想明確的是，雖然人們很容易認為今年的所有逆風將在明年變成順風，但事實並非那麼簡單。目前我們預計 2025 年零售業不會出現反彈。

As I said previously, we believe consumers need many more interest rate reductions, coupled with time to enable their improved financial position and confidence to spend on large, more discretionary items. Therefore, we will approach 2025 with caution, and we will continue to focus on the things we can control to position us to emerge stronger operationally and competitively.

正如我之前所說，我們認為消費者需要更多的降息，同時需要時間來改善他們的財務狀況和信心，以購買更多可自由支配的大宗商品。因此，我們將謹慎對待 2025 年，我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，以使我們在營運和競爭力方面變得更強。

We knew the second half of the year would be difficult given the headwinds associated with cutting shipments as a result of continued, macroeconomic headwinds. As we look into the fourth quarter and 2025, we do not expect a rapid recovery.

我們知道，鑑於宏觀經濟持續不利因素導致出貨量減少的不利因素，今年下半年將會很困難。展望第四季和 2025 年，我們預計不會出現快速復甦。

As we continue to navigate the environment, our goals are simple. Stay close to dealers to ensure we maintain inventory at the right level and mix to meet demand, drive innovation and execute on new product launches in 2025 and continue to implement lean and expand our operational improvements.

當我們繼續探索環境時，我們的目標很簡單。與經銷商保持密切聯繫，確保我們將庫存維持在適當的水平並進行混合以滿足需求，推動創新並執行 2025 年新產品的發布，並繼續實施精益並擴大我們的營運改進。

Our goals are within our control. We will navigate through this environment and set ourselves up for '25, '26 and beyond to begin to deliver on our through-cycle targets for sales growth, meaningful margin expansion and attractive returns as the global leader in powersports.

我們的目標在我們的掌控之中。我們將適應這種環境，並為 25 年、26 年及以後做好準備，開始實現我們作為動力運動全球領導者的銷售成​​長、有意義的利潤擴張和有吸引力的回報的整個週期目標。

We have the best team in powersports. We have been through challenging economic cycles before, and I'm confident that we will continue to skillfully manage through the current environment. We have the right long-term strategy, and we are executing on initiatives today that will enable us to emerge an even stronger company on the other side of the cycle.

我們擁有動力運動領域中最好的團隊。我們以前經歷過充滿挑戰的經濟週期，我相信我們將繼續巧妙地應對當前的環境。我們擁有正確的長期策略，我們今天正在執行的舉措將使我們能夠在周期的另一端成為一家更強大的公司。

With that, we thank you for your continued support, and I'll turn it over for Q&A.

在此，我們感謝您一直以來的支持，我會轉交給問答。

(Operator Instructions) Megan Alexander, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）梅根·亞歷山大，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to start maybe unsurprisingly by asking about dealer inventory. You didn't comment on where it was or I guess, where it trended versus last quarter. But if I'm doing my math correct, I think based on your comments in the last two quarters, it would seem to imply dealer inventories up relative to the end of 2Q.

不出所料，我想從詢問經銷商庫存開始。您沒有評論它在哪裡，或者我猜，它與上季度相比的趨勢。但如果我的數學正確的話，我認為根據您在過去兩個季度的評論，這似乎意味著經銷商庫存相對於第二季末有所增加。

So I'm just trying to understand why that would be the case given the commitment that you've talked about to reducing inventory in the channel. I understand it can take time to adjust shipment schedules and that can be driving some timing discrepancies.

因此，我只是想了解為什麼會發生這種情況，因為您已經談到了減少渠道庫存的承諾。我了解調整出貨時間表可能需要時間，這可能會導致一些時間差異。

So if that's the answer, and that's the case. Maybe you could just tell us where dealer inventory levels sit today on October 22 versus the end of the quarter?

所以，如果這就是答案，那就是這樣。也許您可以告訴我們 10 月 22 日經銷商庫存水準與本季末的庫存水準相比如何？

I think the concern is that optically, it seems like there hasn't been a lot of progress made on destocking, and retail is also worse than you expected. So just trying to understand whether this means destocking could actually continue into '25, if we don't see an acceleration in retail through the end of the year?

我認為令人擔憂的是，從表面上看，去庫存似乎沒有取得很大進展，零售業也比你預期的更糟。因此，我們想了解一下，如果我們在年底前沒有看到零售業加速成長，這是否意味著去庫存實際上會持續到 25 年？

Yes. I mean, look, it is a complicated process. We were -- as I talked about in my prepared remarks, we were with dealers in August in Las Vegas. This obviously was top of mind. What we conveyed -- both Bob and I both conveyed is we can't shut this down overnight.

是的。我的意思是，看，這是一個複雜的過程。正如我在準備好的演講中談到的，我們八月在拉斯維加斯與經銷商會面。這顯然是最重要的。我們傳達的訊息——鮑勃和我都傳達的是我們不能在一夜之間關閉它。

We've actually seen a couple of our competitors who tried to do that. And what ended up happening is they cut off their current inventory, which was creating challenges for the dealers to actually move things that were under more current demand, and they were left with much older inventory.

事實上，我們已經看到一些競爭對手試圖這樣做。最終發生的事情是他們切斷了當前的庫存，這給經銷商實際轉移當前需求較多的商品帶來了挑戰，而且他們留下了更舊的庫存。

Now you see that turning into really high promotional levels and some of the dynamics that they're fighting through in the fourth quarter when most of this should have probably been somewhat cleared up. As we look sequentially, Dealer inventory is down.

現在你看到，這變成了非常高的促銷水平，以及他們在第四季度正在努力克服的一些動態，而其中大部分可能已經得到了一定程度的解決。從順序來看，經銷商庫存有所下降。

We pull a couple of things out. One is youth because it's the prime stocking season. Last year, if you recall, we had all sorts of recalls on our youth products. So we were delayed in shipping and very late for the season. And then obviously, the snowmobile business.

我們拿出一些東西。一是年輕，因為現在是備貨的黃金季節。如果你還記得的話，去年我們對我們的青少年產品進行了各種各樣的召回。所以我們的運輸被推遲了，而且在這個季節已經很晚了。顯然，還有雪地摩托車業務。

When you look at core ORV, we have made progress sequentially. Our main points of progress relative to the 15% to 20% happen as we get to the end of October then November and then December. And it's a pretty steady cadence as we adjusted RFM profiles and that's when the shipments really are brought down hard for the dealers.

當你看核心 ORV 時，我們已經取得了連續的進展。我們相對於 15% 到 20% 的主要進展發生在 10 月底、11 月底和 12 月底。當我們調整 RFM 配置時，這是一個相當穩定的節奏，那時經銷商的出貨量確實大幅下降。

Obviously, the weaker retail in the third quarter presented some challenges. That's why we went back in and changed our production schedules. We are going to hit the down 15% to 20% period. We were clear with dealers that it was going to happen later in the year because we had to be mindful of the fact that we had a lot of inventory on order coming over.

顯然，第三季零售疲軟帶來了一些挑戰。這就是我們回去改變生產計劃的原因。我們將迎來 15% 至 20% 的下跌時期。我們向經銷商明確表示，這將在今年稍後發生，因為我們必須注意這樣一個事實，即我們有大量訂單庫存。

You can't just slow this thing down overnight. The dealers, by and large, have been very supportive. I'm going to be with dealers again on Monday and Tuesday of this week and our dealer council where we have our top dealer representatives come in, and we'll obviously continue to reinforce our commitment to bring inventory down and continue to work through that.

你不能一夜之間就放慢這件事的速度。總的來說，經銷商都非常支持。我將在本週的周一和周二再次與經銷商會面，我們的經銷商委員會將派出我們的頂級經銷商代表，顯然我們將繼續強化我們降低庫存的承諾，並繼續努力解決這個問題。

Obviously, retail performance in the fourth quarter is going to be key. October results are encouraging, but we don't tend to get overly excited about one month because we've seen how volatile the environment's been. And I suspect, as we clear out of October, we're going to see dealer inventory have a meaningful move-down, and then we'll continue that progress into November and December.

顯然，第四季的零售表現將是關鍵。十月份的結果令人鼓舞，但我們不會對一個月感到過度興奮，因為我們已經看到了環境的波動性。我懷疑，隨著 10 月的清理，我們將看到經銷商庫存大幅下降，然後我們將在 11 月和 12 月繼續這一進展。

That's really helpful. And then, I mean, you just answered the question a little bit. But can you just maybe give us a more pointed answer on what's baked into your outlook for retail in 4Q? And then I wanted to just follow up a little bit on your comments on 2025.

這真的很有幫助。然後，我的意思是，你只是回答了一點問題。但您能否就您對第四季零售業前景的看法給出一個更有針對性的答案？然後我想稍微跟進一下你們對 2025 年的評論。

Do you understand you're not predicting a retail rebound and it seems prudent to maybe think that way at this point. But do you see enough do you think that retail is at least stabilized such that retail can be flat in '25? Or you're trying to say that we could continue to see retail compound declines into 2025?

您知道嗎，您並不是在預測零售業反彈，目前認為似乎是謹慎的做法。但你是否認為零售業至少已經穩定下來，以至於 25 年零售業可以持平？或者您想說我們可能會在 2025 年繼續看到零售複合下降？

I think it's probably a little early for us. I can tell you that based on what we're seeing right now, it feels like the trend is probably slowing in terms of retail reduction. But the fact that we've got our rec space continues to decline for the eighth straight quarter, and we saw, albeit slight negative, we saw our RANGER business, the utility business, including ATV, go negative in the third quarter.

我認為這對我們來說可能有點早。我可以告訴你，根據我們現在所看到的情況，感覺零售減少的趨勢可能正在放緩。但事實上，我們的娛樂空間連續第八個季度持續下降，我們看到，儘管略有負值，但我們的 RANGER 業務、公用事業業務，包括 ATV，在第三季度出現負值。

And so we're obviously keeping a close eye on that. That had been a more resilient segment up until the third quarter. We don't want to overreact to one quarter's trend. But when I step back and I look at the environment, we've had one interest rate cut. It really hasn't done much.

所以我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。直到第三季為止，該部門一直是一個更具彈性的部門。我們不想對一個季度的趨勢反應過度。但當我退一步看看環境時，我們已經降息了一次。它確實沒有做太多事情。

I think not just for our business but in the broader economic sense. Inflation, although it has come down is still running in the mid- to high 2s. And I think there's just a lot of economic uncertainty right now. I think certainly getting past the election is going to be helpful.

我認為這不僅是為了我們的業務，也是為了更廣泛的經濟意義。通貨膨脹雖然有所下降，但仍處於中高點。我認為目前經濟存在許多不確定性。我認為透過選舉肯定會有幫助。

But we're going to make sure that as we exit the year, we're going to have dealer inventory at an all-time low from a DSO standpoint. We think that's going to position us well. And if retail continues to see negative movement, the volatileness between retail and shipments is going to be essentially out of the system because we've gotten ourselves to a point where we can match shipments and retail.

但我們將確保，在今年結束時，從 DSO 的角度來看，我們的經銷商庫存將處於歷史最低水準。我們認為這將使我們處於有利的位置。如果零售業繼續出現負面走勢，那麼零售業和出貨量之間的波動性將基本上消失在系統之外，因為我們已經達到了可以匹配出貨量和零售業的地步。

Albeit maybe a little bit different by quarter for the year, it should be a much less volatile pattern. But we're going to keep a close eye on it. And the health of the consumer is the primary thing that we're watching right now.

儘管今年各季度的情況可能略有不同，但這種模式的波動性應該要小得多。但我們將密切關注它。消費者的健康是我們現在關注的首要議題。

Craig Kennison, Baird.

克雷格·肯尼森，貝爾德。

It really has to do with RFM. If you just look from the outside, it feels like the right tool, but maybe a little too focused on units or DSOs without enough weight placed on like, actual, dealer floorplan costs. And so I'm wondering, Mike, to what extent you can make changes to RFM to avoid, I guess, an inventory problem in the future, just reinforce that strong partnership you have with your dealer network.

這確實與 RFM 有關。如果您僅從外部看，感覺像是正確的工具，但可能有點過於關注單位或 DSO，而沒有足夠重視經銷商的實際佈局規劃成本。所以我想知道，麥克，您可以在多大程度上對 RFM 進行更改，以避免將來出現庫存問題，只是加強您與經銷商網路之間的牢固合作夥伴關係。

Yes. I mean we've been having a fair number of conversations with dealers. And certainly, one of the things that we do now that we haven't historically because we haven't had to is we dollarize what the profiles look like.

是的。我的意思是我們已經與經銷商進行了大量對話。當然，我們現在所做的、歷史上沒有做過的事情之一，因為我們沒有必要這樣做，就是我們將個人資料的外觀美元化。

And obviously, [bang] that against with the interest rate, obviously, with Fed making the move, the October rate comes down, so the dealers are going to see a little bit of relief starting to flow through their statements. And it is something that we keep front and center.

顯然，與利率相反，顯然，隨著聯準會採取行動，10 月利率下降，因此交易商將看到他們的聲明中開始出現一些緩解。我們將這一點放在首位和中心位置。

It's why, by the end of this year, we're going to have our DSO well below where we were pre-pandemic because what that does is it allows for us not just to account for the box count, but also for the value of the inventory and the associated interest rate that comes along with that. I think the benefit we have is that it also makes sure that we're keeping inventory current.

這就是為什麼到今年年底，我們的 DSO 將遠低於大流行前的水平，因為這樣做不僅可以讓我們計算盒子數量，還可以計算盒子的價值。我認為我們的好處是它還能確保我們保持庫存最新。

You heard in my prepared remarks, we've talked to you specifically a couple of times about the data that we have internally that we get through Lightspeed. And we know that of all the OEMs, our inventory is the most current. And I think that's a direct attribute to RFM. It allows us to make real-time adjustments.

您在我準備好的演講中聽到了，我們已經專門與您討論過幾次我們透過 Lightspeed 獲得的內部數據。我們知道，在所有 OEM 廠商中，我們的庫存是最新的。我認為這是 RFM 的直接屬性。它使我們能夠進行即時調整。

And at the end of the day, that's really what the dealer needs is they need the inventory that's going to move the fastest and be the most current that allows them to preserve as much margin as they can and be able to avoid the interest costs.

歸根結底，經銷商真正需要的是他們需要移動最快且最新的庫存，使他們能夠保留盡可能多的利潤並能夠避免利息成本。

As we look into '25 with the ending inventory that we're targeting and the flooring coverage that we provide the dealers, which averages out around 90 days, we believe we're going to be in a position where their risk for interest is going to be minimized significantly. And because they're going to be turning inventory faster, they've got flooring coverage that covers the majority of the time period that we're targeting the DSO at and then we're being mindful of the mix of inventory relative to the demand trends.

當我們研究 25 年我們的目標期末庫存以及我們為經銷商提供的地板覆蓋範圍（平均約為 90 天）時，我們相信我們將處於他們的利息風險正在下降的位置顯著最小化。因為他們會更快地週轉庫存，所以他們的覆蓋範圍涵蓋了我們針對 DSO 的大部分時間段，然後我們要注意庫存相對於需求的組合趨勢。

Great, Mike. And then I guess the other side of that is, are you confident that dealers will reward Polaris with market share, even if you maintain more rational shipment levels. So you don't want your dealers just to be focused on dumping whatever brand is causing the most pain. If you're not causing them pain, will they still focus on prioritizing Polaris?

太棒了，麥克。然後我想事情的另一面是，即使你保持更合理的出貨水平，你是否有信心經銷商會獎勵北極星的市場份額。因此，您不希望經銷商只專注於傾銷造成最大痛苦的品牌。如果你沒有帶給他們痛苦，他們還會優先考慮北極星嗎？

Yes. I mean it's a delicate balance, right? Because we certainly can't walk in and tell them not to focus on some of those other stuff because the financial health of that dealership, they need to get that inventory moved. The key is, once we get through, we need to make sure that, a, we're maintaining the floor space that we deserve and b, that we maintain a priority.

是的。我的意思是這是一個微妙的平衡，對嗎？因為我們當然不能走進去告訴他們不要注意其他一些事情，因為經銷商的財務狀況良好，他們需要轉移庫存。關鍵是，一旦我們通過了，我們需要確保，a，我們維持我們應得的佔地面積，b，我們保持優先權。

That's why I referenced it earlier. That's why we do things like our dealer council, where it's not just me, it's Bob and it's the other members of our ORV team that are listening and taking the feedback and there's a number of things that we did coming out of the last meeting we had with them in terms of simplifying the North Star Rewards program, making sure that we're communicating with them around the RFM inventory levels.

這就是為什麼我之前提到過它。這就是為什麼我們會做像我們的經銷商委員會這樣的事情，不僅僅是我，還有鮑勃，還有我們ORV 團隊的其他成員都在傾聽並接受反饋，我們在上次會議中做了很多事情。

New product is a key in making sure we've got product to address certain segments. And it's why we continue to reinforce that everything we're doing right now is we want to be the OEM of choice with the dealers. And when you're dealing with 70% or 80% of our network being multiline, it's really important for us to work the relationship.

新產品是確保我們擁有能夠滿足特定細分市場需求的產品的關鍵。這就是為什麼我們不斷強調我們現在所做的一切都是為了成為經銷商的首選 OEM。當我們的網路中有 70% 或 80% 是多線時，處理這種關係對我們來說非常重要。

And obviously, the financial side of it is really important but there's so many other aspects. And I think we clearly work harder and probably do a better job than most of making sure we're doing that. I think that's going to reward us when we get on the other side of the cycle.

顯然，財務方面確實很重要，但還有很多其他方面。我認為我們顯然比大多數人更努力工作，並且可能做得更好，以確保我們做到這一點。我認為，當我們進入周期的另一端時，這會為我們帶來回報。

Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Noah Zatzkin，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Maybe just one on the $280 million of operational savings that you guys realized versus the $150 million prior. If you could just provide a bit of color on what was the delta in terms of realized opportunities there?

也許只是你們實現的 2.8 億美元營運節省（與之前的 1.5 億美元相比）中的一小部分。您能否提供一些關於已實現機會的增量是多少的資訊？

And then as we look out to next year, how should we think about the $280 million in terms of being recurring, meaning how should we think about like the extent to which that's volume driven or onetime? What's more permanently out of the base?

然後，當我們展望明年時，我們應該如何考慮這 2.8 億美元的經常性，這意味著我們應該如何考慮數量驅動或一次性的程度？還有什麼比永久離開基地更重要的呢？

So if you think about the -- we went into the year, as we said, with a target of $150 million, we've been able to overdrive that. It's been a mix of different things. I would say the two largest areas have been spend at the plants, and that includes labor and then materials and logistics.

因此，如果你想一想，正如我們所說，我們今年的目標是 1.5 億美元，我們已經能夠超額完成這一目標。這是不同事物的混合體。我想說，最大的兩個領域是在工廠上花費的，其中包括勞動力，然後是材料和物流。

And the materials work has come from supplier negotiations, come from product design changes, things like that. Logistics, we've just been operating more efficiently and haven't had to do as many expedites and late shipments and things like that, that cost a premium.

材料工作來自供應商談判，來自產品設計變更，諸如此類。物流方面，我們的營運效率更高，不必做那麼多加急和延遲發貨之類的事情，這些都會產生額外費用。

On the plant spend side, it's been just good efficiency on indirect labor, trying to move out temporary labor, reducing over time. So as you think about the $280 million, in terms of what stays and what comes back, there's probably about 25% of it that is tied more closely to production.

在工廠支出方面，間接勞動力的效率很高，試圖轉移臨時勞動力，隨著時間的推移而減少。因此，當你考慮這 2.8 億美元時，就留下的內容和返回的內容而言，其中可能有大約 25% 與生產緊密相關。

And so if that loss production came back, then some portion of that cost comes back because that's what it takes to get that production. But the vast majority of it, 70%, 75% will stay. And we're not out of opportunities here either.

因此，如果損失的生產回來了，那麼部分成本就會回來，因為這就是獲得生產所需要的。但絕大多數，70%、75%會留下來。我們這裡也並非沒有機會。

Mike and I were just down in both of the major plants as he said. And while we've made good progress, we've only really been focused on one line at each plant, and those aren't even done. So there's a lot of opportunity left to go in terms of getting more efficient, and we'll continue to drive that into '25.

正如他所說，麥克和我就在兩個主要工廠。雖然我們取得了良好的進展，但我們只真正專注於每個工廠的一條生產線，而這些甚至還沒有完成。因此，在提高效率方面還有很多機會，我們將繼續推動這一目標進入 25 年。

Yes. And I think, Noah, I made a couple of comments about getting more output for the same labor input. And I think that's where we have the opportunity when volume eventually comes back that we would be able to add more into the production schedule and not necessarily have to add the labor in at the same rate.

是的。我想，諾亞，我發表了一些關於以相同的勞動力投入獲得更多產出的評論。我認為，當產量最終恢復時，我們有機會在生產計劃中增加更多，而不必以相同的速度增加勞動力。

And those are the areas we're going to drive for more efficiency. I mean, look, this is a huge focus for us. I mean we know we're in a down part of the cycle for powersports, and we are using this time to very quickly and rapidly move through.

這些就是我們要推動提高效率的領域。我的意思是，看，這對我們來說是一個巨大的焦點。我的意思是，我們知道我們正處於動力運動週期的下行階段，我們正在利用這段時間非常快速地度過難關。

And it's not just our factories, it's every element of our operational supply chain logistics, you name it, as well as into our structure as a company. We talked about it at the last call where we took actions to really take down the complexity and things that we have as a company.

這不僅僅是我們的工廠，而是我們營運供應鏈物流的每一個要素，凡是你能想到的，以及我們公司的結構。我們在上次電話會議上討論了這個問題，我們採取了行動，真正降低了我們作為一家公司所擁有的複雜性和事物。

And we're going to make sure that those things remain permanent. It allows us to put the money into things like innovation and then be able to drive the margin improvement when we get on the other side of this cycle.

我們將確保這些事情保持永久。它使我們能夠將資金投入到創新等方面，然後當我們進入這個週期的另一端時能夠推動利潤率的提高。

Maybe just one more, and You touched on this in terms of talking about maybe higher levels of promo from some competitors. But if you -- when you talk to your dealers, maybe just your sense of competitor inventory in dealerships and maybe tough question to answer, but what inning dealers are in, in general in terms of getting their overall inventory levels healthy?

也許只是再一次，您在談到某些競爭對手可能提供更高水平的促銷時談到了這一點。但是，當您與經銷商交談時，也許只是您對經銷商中競爭對手庫存的感覺，也許是一個很難回答的問題，但經銷商在整體庫存水準保持健康方面處於什麼階段？

Yes. I mean it's actually not tough to answer because we have a lot of data. So we're able to see it across, call it, the top five OEMs. We know that we are in either number one or number two position when it comes to days sales outstanding. And then there's a pretty substantial drop off after us and one other large competitor.

是的。我的意思是，這個問題其實並不難回答，因為我們有很多數據。所以我們能夠看到它，稱之為前五名原始設備製造商。我們知道，就銷售額而言，我們要么排名第一，要么排名第二。然後在我們和另一家大型競爭對手之後出現了相當大的下降。

And I think those are the areas that we know dealers are really working through. Those OEMs are leaning in and putting huge discounts and financing incentives around that inventory. A lot of that inventory is aged. It's model year '22. And so they've really got a challenge in front of them. It's why I was very deliberate about saying that there are certain areas we're just not going to participate.

我認為這些是我們知道經銷商正在真正努力解決的領域。這些原始設備製造商正在向庫存傾斜並提供巨額折扣和融資激勵措施。其中很多庫存已經老化。這是 22 年款。因此，他們確實面臨挑戰。這就是為什麼我非常慎重地說，有些領域我們不會參與。

I'm not going to go in and take the value of a general or an expedition down to try and compete with something that is two or three years older than our product, it doesn't make a lot of sense, and it's not sustainable.

我不會降低將軍或探險隊的價值來嘗試與比我們的產品早兩三年的東西競爭，這沒有多大意義，而且不可持續。

We know that they've just got to work through that. And I think it's taken a little bit longer. I think the weaker retail backdrop has not helped. And I think some of these other OEMs probably had a lot more product produced and we're slower to make some of the cuts that we and BRP have made.

我們知道他們必須解決這個問題。我認為這需要更長的時間。我認為零售業疲軟的背景並沒有起到幫助作用。我認為其他一些原始設備製造商可能生產了更多的產品，而我們和 BRP 的一些削減速度卻較慢。

Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

弗雷德‧懷特曼，沃爾夫研究公司。

This is a follow-up to Noah's question, but I guess if we think about the [$3.25] that you guys have out there for this year now, can you just give us the big building blocks from a bridge perspective, just the puts and takes, knowing what you know now, what comes back next year? I mean, $3.25, should we be thinking about that up, down, flat? Like how would you encourage us to model that?

這是諾亞問題的後續問題，但我想如果我們考慮一下你們今年的 [3.25 美元]，你們能否從橋樑的角度為我們提供重要的構建模組，只是看跌期權和知道你現在所知道的，明年會發生什麼事？我的意思是，3.25 美元，我們應該考慮上漲、下跌還是持平嗎？例如你會如何鼓勵我們建模？

Yes. I'll let Bob give a little bit more. Look, I think we've still got persistent headwinds as we get into '25. I mean it's tough to know exactly where retail is going to go. The good thing is, pretty much across our business. By the time we get out at the end of the year, we feel really good about where our inventory is. Flat is probably a good starting point. it's really tough to say.

是的。我會讓鮑伯多付出一點。看，我認為進入 25 年後我們仍然面臨持續的阻力。我的意思是很難確切地知道零售業將走向何方。好消息是，幾乎涵蓋了我們的業務。當我們年底出去時，我們對庫存狀況感覺非常好。平坦可能是一個很好的起點。真的很難說。

I mean we have a lot of puts and takes in terms of certainly a tailwind of a lot of operational savings. It's no surprise that some of our bonus programs have been cut back, and so there will be some compensation expense that comes back into next year. And certainly, interest rates are going to be helpful from the standpoint of, it lowers the cost of our debt, it lowers the cost of borrowing for the dealers.

我的意思是，我們有很多看跌期權和期權，這肯定會帶來大量營運節省。毫不奇怪，我們的一些獎金計劃被削減，因此明年將會有一些補償費用。當然，從降低我們債務成本、降低經銷商借貸成本的角度來看，利率將會有所幫助。

It certainly helps our customers. But I think it's a question. I mean there's no telling how many cuts. We're not going to prognosticate around what we think is going to happen. We do think it's going to take many cuts and time for our consumers to get out from underneath elevated levels of debt.

這無疑對我們的客戶有幫助。但我認為這是一個問題。我的意思是，不知道有多少削減。我們不會預測我們認為會發生的事情。我們確實認為，我們的消費者需要大量的削減和時間才能擺脫過高的債務水準。

There's a lot of purchases that have been made. They've been dealing with high inflation. The good news for us is that a lot of these products are starting to get age, they're four or five years.

已經進行了很多購買。他們一直在應對高通膨。對我們來說，好消息是很多這些產品已經開始老化，已經有四、五年了。

And in some of these segments, we know that, that starts to hit the cycle when they're going to want to look for a new product. And whether that happens in '25 or '26 as anybody's call at this point.

我們知道，在其中一些細分市場中，當他們想要尋找新產品時，就會開始進入循環。至於這會發生在 25 年還是 26 年，正如大家現在所說的。

Yes. I mean, like, Mike said, we're not about to get into giving EPS puts and takes for 2025. But in terms of the positive, we'll have the carryover of the ops efficiencies, and we'll continue to focus on those. The carryover obviously, of the headcount actions we took in July, interest rates, which impacts flooring, impacts retail rate buydowns and obviously, our own debt.

是的。我的意思是，就像麥克說的那樣，我們不打算給出 2025 年每股收益的看跌期權和期權。但就積極方面而言，我們將繼承營運效率，並且我們將繼續關注這些。顯然，我們在 7 月採取的人員統計行動中，利率會影響下限，影響零售利率購買，顯然還會影響我們自己的債務。

So some positives, no question. But then the industry, I think, is going to continue to be challenged, at least into the first half of the year. And maybe we'll see impact of interest rate cuts, however they flow out through the year. I would think it would be -- the real impact of that is probably going to be more back-half weighted, but it's early to tell.

毫無疑問，這是一些正面的因素。但我認為，該行業將繼續面臨挑戰，至少到今年上半年是如此。也許我們會看到降息的影響，無論它們在一年中如何流出。我認為它的真正影響可能會更多地集中在後半部分，但現在下結論還為時過早。

And then, obviously, Mike mentioned the bonus, there will be some headwind from that normalizing hopefully next year. Commodities have been a little [sporty] the last couple of months. I don't know that that's going to be a long-term trend but there's probably some pressure there and a couple of other general corporate things.

然後，顯然，麥克提到了獎金，希望明年的正常化將會帶來一些阻力。過去幾個月大宗商品有點[活躍]。我不知道這將是一個長期趨勢，但可能存在一些壓力以及其他一些一般性的企業問題。

Yes. I mean, Fred, part of the philosophy as we look at this is, given the uncertainty, the goal is let's get the inventories down to where we believe they should be. If things turn out better next year, I have more confidence and want to play more offense than have to be talking about cutting production schedules.

是的。我的意思是，弗雷德，我們看待這個問題的部分理念是，考慮到不確定性，我們的目標是讓庫存降至我們認為應該的水平。如果明年情況好轉，我會更有信心，並且想採取更多進攻措施，而不是談論削減生產計劃。

And all the work we're doing to get the factories more efficient, leaning them out, we're going to be able to respond faster and see those patterns coming and be able to take advantage of them. If they emerge, if they don't, then we've sized the business appropriately, and we'll be ready for the recovery whenever that happens.

我們正在做的所有工作都是為了提高工廠效率，讓它們精益求精，我們將能夠更快地做出反應，看到這些模式的出現並能夠利用它們。如果它們出現，如果沒有出現，那麼我們就會適當調整業務規模，並且無論何時發生，我們都會為復甦做好準備。

Makes sense. And then just on the Marine business quickly, another cut to the outlook there. I mean we've seen some other people in the space look to divest marine assets, given how long that recovery looks like it might take. Can you just talk about how important the Marine business is to the platform going forward?

有道理。然後就在海洋業務上，很快又出現了對該領域前景的削減。我的意思是，考慮到復甦可能需要多長時間，我們已經看到該領域的其他一些人希望剝離海洋資產。您能否談談海洋業務對於平台未來的發展有多重要？

Yes. I mean, look, I know the news probably has everybody scratching their head and looking at us. Look, our business, we make really good money. The EBITDA margins in our Marine business are pretty much right now on par with the company. They're running it well.

是的。我的意思是，看，我知道這個消息可能會讓每個人都摸不著頭腦，看著我們。瞧，我們的生意，我們賺的錢真多。我們船舶業務的 EBITDA 利潤率目前與公司基本持平。他們運行得很好。

They've been able to react quickly. The market is down. There is some competitive behavior at the very low end of the Pontoon segment that we just are going to steer clear of because these are very low value, low-margin boats that are driving some shorter-term share moves that frankly, are probably not relevant for us.

他們能夠快速做出反應。市場下跌。在浮橋細分市場的非常低端存在一些競爭行為，我們只是要避開，因為這些是非常低價值、低利潤的船隻，正在推動一些短期的份額變動，坦率地說，這些變動可能不相關對於我們來說。

When we look at the mid- to larger boats across Bennington and Godfrey, we're actually doing really well from a share standpoint. The market is just slow. I mean these are not -- these are not cheap vehicles. Interest rates are high. A lot of people bought boats in '20 and '21.

當我們觀察本寧頓和戈弗雷的中型到大型船舶時，從份額的角度來看，我們實際上做得非常好。市場只是緩慢。我的意思是這些不是——這些不是廉價車輛。利率很高。很多人在 20 世紀和 21 世紀購買了船。

And I think it's going to be a little bit of time for that to work through the system. The good news for us is, we held two of our dealer meetings over the summer in August. We do one for Bennington and one for Godfrey and Hurricane. The new product launch for Bennington is the largest we've ever had.

我認為這需要一點時間才能透過系統發揮作用。對我們來說好消息是，我們在八月的夏季舉行了兩場經銷商會議。我們為本寧頓製作了一部，為戈弗雷和颶風製作了一部。本寧頓的新產品發表會是我們有史以來規模最大的一次。

Godfrey. We're now entering two new segments with the (inaudible) [center console] in the 32-foot day boat. The orders for all those products were very strong, which was encouraging because dealers really recognize the focus around innovation that we've got in that business.

戈弗雷.現在，我們正在 32 英尺長的日間船上使用（聽不清楚）[中控台]進入兩個新航段。所有這些產品的訂單都非常強勁，這令人鼓舞，因為經銷商真正認識到我們在該業務中對創新的關注。

And we love -- so we're getting that business ready for when the market turns, and we think we'll be in a great spot given the top positioning we have with Pontoons as well as deck boats.

我們喜歡——所以我們正在為市場轉變做好準備，考慮到我們在浮橋和甲板船方面的頂級定位，我們認為我們將處於一個很好的位置。

Yes. And we've been aggressive taking inventory down all year and even starting late last year. So we'll be down quite a bit by the end of this year as compared to 2023 and even historic levels. So we think it's -- we'll ship the stuff that dealers want for '25.

是的。我們全年都在積極削減庫存，甚至從去年年底開始。因此，與 2023 年甚至歷史水準相比，到今年年底，我們的產量將大幅下降。所以我們認為——我們將在 25 年運送經銷商想要的東西。

So we think we've got a good mix of model year '25, '24 out there in the field or we will as we ship the '25s and then we'll see how the season develops. But we bought a fundamentally different business, I mean we bought market leaders. They continue to be market leaders.

因此，我們認為我們已經將 25 年、24 年車型進行了很好的組合，或者我們將在交付 25 年代時進行混合，然後我們將看看本賽季的發展情況。但我們買了一個根本不同的企業，我的意思是我們買了市場領導者。他們仍然是市場領導者。

We've improved our EBITDA margins on those products through the cycle compared to where they were when we bought them and the businesses generate tremendous cash flow. I mean, we've gotten well in excess of $550 million back already on the purchase, just cash flow of the business since we (inaudible). So I think we have a strong Marine business, and we haven't changed our commitment to that.

與我們購買時相比，我們在整個週期中提高了這些產品的 EBITDA 利潤率，而這些業務產生了巨大的現金流。我的意思是，自從我們收購以來，我們已經獲得了超過 5.5 億美元的回報，這只是業務的現金流（聽不清楚）。因此，我認為我們擁有強大的海洋業務，並且我們沒有改變對此的承諾。

Joe Altobello, Raymond James.

喬·阿爾托貝洛，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

So I guess first question on Off-Road I'm a little surprised that you didn't gain share in the quarter given the launch timing of some of your model year '25 back in the Spring, which, in theory, gave you and your dealers the ability to discount model year '24s.

所以我想關於越野的第一個問題我有點驚訝的是，考慮到你們的一些 25 年車型在春季的推出時間，你們在本季度沒有獲得份額，從理論上講，這給了你們和你們的經銷商能夠對24 年代的車型進行折扣。

And it doesn't seem like that share. I know it's small, but that share went to -- Can AM. So did the launch timing help at all? And did you see buyers trading down to lower price points? Or were they just chasing promotions?

而且好像也不是那種共享。我知道它很小，但那部分份額去了——Can AM。那麼發射時機有幫助嗎？您是否看到買家降價至更低的價格點？或者他們只是為了晉升？

Yes. I mean, by definition, the last two parts of your question are the same. And your hypothesis is correct. Share gains came from primarily the Japanese. And I would tell you that in some instances, it's share gains that are getting them back on par with where they had been a year or two earlier.

是的。我的意思是，根據定義，你問題的最後兩部分是相同的。你的假設是正確的。股票收益主要來自日本。我想告訴你，在某些情況下，股票收益使他們回到了一兩年前的水平。

And a lot of it had to be -- was really driven by moving noncurrent product with very heavy discounts. I mean we were talking about discounts that are up in the $5,000 range with financing offers, dealer cash, you name it. And I think those are areas we just are not going to participate.

其中許多確實是由以非常大的折扣轉移非流動產品所推動的。我的意思是，我們談論的是 5,000 美元範圍內的折扣，包括融資優惠、經銷商現金等等。我認為這些是我們不會參與的領域。

The segments where we have new products. They're doing fine. The broader market backdrop is not great. But we have a lot of confidence in the innovation. And I think when you look at something as simple as XPEDITION, I mean, XPEDITION is up 25% in an area that rec of all categories is probably most challenged.

我們有新產品的細分市場。他們做得很好。大盤背景並不好。但我們對創新充滿信心。我認為，當你看到像 XPEDITION 這樣簡單的東西時，我的意思是，XPEDITION 在所有類別的記錄可能最具挑戰性的領域中上漲了 25%。

And I think that just speaks to the power of the new products. And we're going to stay focused on the things that add value to this company over a long term. We're not getting caught up in some of the short-term discounting and moving of noncurrent unhealthy inventory.

我認為這正好說明了新產品的力量。我們將繼續專注於能夠長期為公司增加價值的事情。我們不會陷入一些短期折扣和非流動不健康庫存的轉移。

Understood. Maybe a question for Bob. You lowered your sales guidance for the year, not gross margin. And I think if my math is right, Q4 implies gross margin flat to up year over year. What's driving that?

明白了。也許有個問題想問鮑伯。您降低了今年的銷售指導，而不是毛利率。我認為，如果我的數學正確，第四季意味著毛利率同比持平或上升。是什麼推動了這一點？

Yes. So a couple of things. There's a chunk of it is mix, well just by nature, in Q4, we'll ship a lot of our snowmobiles for the season. And in Q3, you typically ship a fair amount of [youth] and ATVs as you're going into both the holiday season and the hunting season.

是的。有幾件事。其中很大一部分是混合的，本質上來說，在第四季度，我們將在本季度運送大量雪地摩托車。在第三季度，當您進入假期季節和狩獵季節時，您通常會運送相當數量的[青年]和全地形車。

So that will -- that has a positive impact from a mix standpoint. Also, we'll start to shift the boats that came out of the dealer shows and those tend to be higher option boats. So those tend to be good margin in those.

因此，從混合的角度來看，這會產生正面的影響。此外，我們將開始轉移從經銷商展會出來的船隻，這些船隻往往是更高的選擇。所以這些往往都是很好的利潤。

And then also from a year over year perspective, remember, we had a $20-plus million warranty item at Goupil last year that doesn't repeat this year. So that drives some of that GP improvement on a year over year basis.

然後，從逐年的角度來看，請記住，我們去年在 Goupil 獲得了價值 20 多萬美元的保固項目，今年不會再出現這種情況。因此，這推動了 GP 逐年改善。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So hoping maybe you could just walk us through the third quarter retail environment, obviously, retail was down, but it was actually down a little bit less than the Q2 declines that we saw for both ORVs and overall. So I guess I'm a little -- I'm surprised as to the surprise that it was worse than you expected?

因此，希望您能帶我們了解第三季的零售環境，顯然，零售業有所下降，但實際上下降幅度比我們看到的 ORV 和整體下降幅度要小一些。所以我想我有點——我對事情比你預期的更糟糕感到驚訝？

Was it just merely a function of July was good and then things slowed from there? Or was there something that you would hope would catalyze better numbers later in the quarter that just never came to fruition.

難道只是因為七月表現良好，然後事情就從那裡開始放緩了？或者您是否希望在本季晚些時候實現更好的業績，但從未實現。

Yes. I mean I'd say a couple of things. One, I think we were surprised by the level of noncurrent inventory, the depth of the noncurrent inventory, I mean, obviously, we see some of the data. And I do think that the backdrop from a consumer standpoint, July looked okay and then things progressively got worse from there.

是的。我的意思是我想說幾件事。第一，我認為我們對非流動庫存的水平和非流動庫存的深度感到驚訝，我的意思是，顯然，我們看到了一些數據。我確實認為，從消費者的角度來看，七月的背景看起來還不錯，但從那時起情況逐漸變得更糟。

That's why even though October looks good, we're very cautious because we've seen this game before. There'll be volatility month-to-month around what we're seeing. Look, I think it's a lot of the stuff we talked about. I mean there's a lot of noncurrent inventory and some of the other OEMs, there's just a lot of inventory.

這就是為什麼儘管 10 月看起來不錯，但我們還是非常謹慎，因為我們以前見過這款遊戲。我們所看到的情況每月都會出現波動。聽著，我想我們討論了很多事情。我的意思是，有很多非流動庫存，而其他一些原始設備製造商也有很多庫存。

And so there's a heavy focus around that. And that's -- if I'm a dealer, I'm trying to get rid of some of that stuff because I'm paying interest on it. And even if I have to take a loss, I just want to get it out of the door. So I think there's some of that, but I mean the backdrop from a consumer standpoint hasn't gotten better.

因此，人們非常關注這一點。那就是 - 如果我是經銷商，我會嘗試擺脫其中一些東西，因為我要為其支付利息。即使我必須承受損失，我也只想擺脫它。所以我認為有一些，但我的意思是從消費者的角度來看，背景並沒有變得更好。

Yes, interest rates moved a little bit given the Fed's action. It takes time for that to roll through. And as we said, I don't think one interest rate is going to do it. I think it's going to have to be multiple. I mean if you look at the economic data coming out right now, credit card debt is at an all-time high, auto delinquency rates are up.

是的，鑑於聯準會的行動，利率略有變動。這需要時間才能實現。正如我們所說，我認為單一利率無法做到這一點。我認為它必須是多個。我的意思是，如果你看看現在公佈的經濟數據，信用卡債務處於歷史最高水平，汽車拖欠率也在上升。

I mean the good thing is we're not seeing some huge spike in delinquency rates for powersports. We're keeping a close eye on that. But the consumer is just not in a great spot. And so I think for us, it's just we're going to focus on the things we can control.

我的意思是，好的事情是我們沒有看到動力運動的拖欠率大幅上升。我們正在密切關注此事。但消費者的處境並不好。所以我認為對我們來說，我們只需專注於我們可以控制的事情。

We're going to work diligently through October, November and December to get the inventory down. And at the same time, keep focusing on making the operations better than they have been.

我們將在 10 月、11 月和 12 月努力工作，以降低庫存。同時，繼續致力於使營運比以前更好。

Got it. And then on the inventory front, I think the big concern among investors is that there's still going to be more work to be done as we enter 2025. Maybe, I guess, level of confidence that you're going to finish this year with the appropriate level of inventory.

知道了。然後在庫存方面，我認為投資者最擔心的是，進入 2025 年仍有更多工作要做。我想，也許您對今年結束時的庫存水準會有適當的信心。

And Mike, you've a couple of times called out the DSO progress that you're making. Maybe put a finer point on that, where is retail and where inventory is versus 2019. I guess I'm surprised to hear the comment that the starting point for next year is flat EPS, if we're not seeing significant inventory drawdowns, right?

麥克，您曾多次提到您在 DSO 方面取得的進展。也許可以更詳細地闡述一下，與 2019 年相比，零售情況和庫存情況。我想我很驚訝聽到這樣的評論：如果我們沒有看到庫存大幅下降，明年的起點是每股盈餘持平，對嗎？

Like in a one-to-one wholesale to retail environment, I would be surprised if you didn't grow EPS given some of the tailwinds that I would think would come back, but maybe I'm not thinking about this the right way.

就像在一對一的批發到零售環境中一樣，如果考慮到一些我認為會回來的有利因素，如果你的每股收益沒有增長，我會感到驚訝，但也許我沒有以正確的方式思考這個問題。

Yes. Well, I mean, first of all, we're not going to get into a '25 guidance discussion here. I gave you guys what I think as a starting point for next year. And obviously, we're going to work to make sure we do everything we can to drive performance. I think what it signals is that we don't see a rebound coming.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，首先，我們不打算在這裡進行 '25 指導討論。我給了你們我的想法作為明年的起點。顯然，我們將努力確保盡一切努力來提高績效。我認為這表明我們看不到反彈即將到來。

There's nothing in front of us data-wise that would signal that. Inventory by the end of the year from a unit perspective will be substantially below where we were in 2019. We will be just north of 100 days of inventory. And my confidence level around that is incredibly high.

我們面前沒有任何數據可以顯示這一點。從單位角度來看，到年底庫存將大幅低於 2019 年的水準。我們的庫存即將超過 100 天。我對此的信心非常高。

The fact that we pulled guidance down as much as we just did should be a direct reflection of our commitment to that. It's not that we don't care about meeting the financial commitments, but job number one is protecting dealers because when we get through this cycle, we need to make sure that the dealers are healthy.

事實上，我們像剛才那樣大幅下調了指引，這應該直接反映了我們對此的承諾。並不是說我們不關心履行財務承諾，而是首要任務是保護經銷商，因為當我們度過這個週期時，我們需要確保經銷商的健康。

And as the preeminent partner to these dealers, making sure that we live up to that commitment is key. We've got a very clear window into October, November and December. We know what we have to do. As we said, we're undershipping retail dramatically in the fourth quarter, and we've got a high degree of confidence we're going to land in that 15% to 20% reduction.

作為這些經銷商的卓越合作夥伴，確保我們履行這項承諾至關重要。我們對 10 月、11 月和 12 月有一個非常清晰的窗口。我們知道我們必須做什麼。正如我們所說，我們第四季的零售出貨量大幅不足，我們非常有信心能夠達到 15% 到 20% 的減少。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

I wanted to go back to the cost saves that you talked about. I know you said about 25% of it is tied to labor and materials from what was the cut in production. But for the other $200 million or so, I'm assuming that's volume dependent that you wouldn't get all that back in 2025 EPS.

我想回到你談到的成本節約。我知道你說過大約 25% 與減產中的勞動力和材料有關。但對於另外 2 億美元左右，我假設這取決於數量，你不會在 2025 年每股收益中收回所有這些。

Can you give us a sense of, well, first of all, I guess how much is volume dependent? Is it all volume dependent? And then also, would volume have to get back to looking at when you first gave the $150 million target.

您能否讓我們了解一下，首先，我猜數量的依賴性有多大？一切都依賴音量嗎？此外，交易量是否必須回到您首次設定 1.5 億美元目標時的水平。

I think your top line outlook at that point was about 17% higher than where it is now. Is that where your shipments -- where your sales would need to be to hit the -- to see that cost saves show up in your EPS line.

我認為您當時的收入預期比現在高出約 17%。這是您的出貨量（您的銷售額需要達到的水平）才能在您的 EPS 產品線中看到成本節省的地方。

Sure. So of the $280 million, what I meant with what I said about 25%. So 25% of it is of the cost -- the true cost savings is volume dependent. It's labor, it's direct and indirect labor consumable supplies in the plants that, that would likely come back, as Mike said, maybe more efficiently, so might not fully come back.

當然。因此，在 2.8 億美元中，我所說的大約 25% 是我的意思。因此，其中 25% 是成本——真正的成本節省取決於數量。正如麥克所說，工廠中的勞動力，直接和間接的勞動力消耗品供應可能會回來，也許效率更高，所以可能不會完全回來。

But it would generally come back if volumes went back to what was in the original 2024 plan. What would also come back, though, is the $140-plus million of absorption, which would obviously be a benefit. I mean, really the reason you don't see much of the benefit of the $280 million this year is $140-plus million of it was taken up by absorption.

但如果銷量回到原來的 2024 年計畫中，通常會恢復。不過，同樣會回來的是 1.4 億多美元的吸收，這顯然是一個好處。我的意思是，實際上，你看不到今年 2.8 億美元帶來的好處的原因是，其中 1.4 億多美元被吸收佔用了。

So we netted $140 million, and that's been offset by negative mix. Mix has been a challenge all year last year, if you remember, we were filling the channel still with XDs and XPEDITIONs and some higher-end product. And so mix has been a headwind.

所以我們淨賺了 1.4 億美元，這被負面組合所抵銷。如果你還記得的話，去年一整年的混合都是一個挑戰，我們仍在用 XD 和 XPEDITION 以及一些更高端的產品填充管道。因此，混合一直是個阻力。

So to get it all, to see all $280 million, you'd have to see the volume come back to where it would have been in this year. But we're going to continue to make efficiency improvements and investments. And as Mike said, we think we can get some of that volume back at a more efficient level than it was taken out at, and we'll see how that plays out over the next couple of years.

因此，要實現這一切，要看到全部 2.8 億美元，您必須看到銷量回到今年的水平。但我們將繼續提高效率和投資。正如麥克所說，我們認為我們可以以比之前更有效的水平恢復部分銷量，我們將看看未來幾年的效果如何。

Okay. So the $210 million that's not tied directly to what was cut probably, it sounds like you're saying that would still take a couple of -- to get volume back to your original guidance to achieve that, we should not expect that $210 million in cost saves to show up in 2025 EPS. Is that fair?

好的。因此，這 2.1 億美元可能與削減的金額沒有直接關係，聽起來你是說仍然需要一些時間才能使交易量恢復到最初的指導水平以實現這一目標，我們不應該期望 2.1 億美元成本節省將體現在2025 年每股收益。這樣公平嗎？

Robin, the $210 million is already in the 2024 EPS. So the only thing that would carry over is any further improvement from there. The [$210 million is already in this year], so it's not going to come back next year. It's already in the current year run rate.

羅賓，這 2.1 億美元已經計入 2024 年每股盈餘了。因此，唯一可以延續的就是在此基礎上進一步改進。[今年已經有 2.1 億美元了]，所以明年不會再回來了。它已經在今年的運行率中。

Okay. And then the other piece for next year, and I know you're not guiding to it, but in a theoretical baseline, if retail were flat. And I realize that nobody is guiding to that or underwriting that outlook. But just if it were and you were shipping to that retail, your shipments could be up because of some of the cuts this year being about inventory reduction at dealers.

好的。然後是明年的另一篇文章，我知道你不是在指導它，而是在理論基線中，如果零售持平的話。我意識到沒有人指導或支持這種前景。但如果是這樣，並且您要向該零售店發貨，您的發貨量可能會增加，因為今年的一些削減是關於經銷商庫存減少的。

Is it fair to think that like close to $2 of EPS would come back, if you were shipping to a flat retail and getting back the shipments that were inventory reduction this year. Is that a [few bucks] or so the right number to think about?

如果你的零售業務表現平平，並收回今年庫存減少的發貨量，那麼近 2 美元的 EPS 會回來，這樣想公平嗎？這是一個[幾美元]左右的正確數字嗎？

Yes. I mean it's tough to comment on. And we're obviously still early in the planning process with our teams. I mean, obviously, this environment has us approaching things a little differently than we have historically.

是的。我的意思是很難評論。顯然，我們的團隊仍處於規劃過程的早期階段。我的意思是，顯然，現在的環境讓我們處理問題的方式與歷史上有所不同。

But I answered Fred's question by saying flat. And I think what you can read into that is, if we're talking about shipments being flat, that means we anticipate retail could still be challenged through '25, albeit probably not at the levels we've seen historically, but we do anticipate that there could continue to be headwinds. I mean, look, we saw it in the third quarter. It's continuing into the fourth quarter.

但我對弗雷德的問題的回答是平淡的。我認為你可以理解的是，如果我們談論的是出貨量持平，這意味著我們預計零售業在25 年之前仍可能面臨挑戰，儘管可能不會達到我們歷史上看到的水平，但我們確實預計不利因素可能持續存在。我的意思是，看，我們在第三季看到了這一點。這種情況一直持續到第四季。

There isn't a magic switch that comes January 1, and so we're planning accordingly. And then certainly, if we're in an environment where we've got the ability to start pushing shipments up, and I'm not suggesting that's in '25. But that is going to put us in a position to have much better incremental margins on the upswing.

1 月 1 日不會出現神奇的轉變，因此我們正在製定相應的計劃。當然，如果我們處於一個有能力開始提高出貨量的環境中，我並不是建議在 25 年。但這將使我們能夠在經濟成長時獲得更好的增量利潤。

We've done a lot of work to keep those decrementals. I mean, our EBITDA decrementals are at just over 20%, which has taken a lot of hard work from the team. And at the same time, we're going to lean out everything we can so that when margin -- when revenue comes back, we've got the ability to lever into those margins.

我們做了很多工作來保留這些減量。我的意思是，我們的 EBITDA 減幅剛剛超過 20%，這需要我們團隊付出大量的努力。同時，我們將竭盡全力，以便當利潤——當收入回升時，我們有能力利用這些利潤。

I don't want to get into trying to make a call around '25. It's too soon. We need to get through the next few months, come back to you guys in January with a view of where we're at. But based on what we're seeing today, we're just trying to set some expectations around where we think things are headed in '25, and we'll see how the consumer performs in the fourth quarter.

我不想在 25 歲左右嘗試打電話。太早了。我們需要度過接下來的幾個月，在一月回到你們身邊，了解我們的處境。但根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們只是試著圍繞 25 年的發展方向設定一些預期，我們將看看消費者在第四季的表現如何。

Alex Perry, Bank of America.

亞歷克斯·佩里，美國銀行。

I just wanted to follow up on some of the retail questions that have been asked. I guess, is it fair to assume that you don't expect any significant deviation to trend from 3Q, so ORV continuing on that down low single-digit trend? And then is there any reason that any of the other segments, as we look at Marine or Motorcycle should have any significantly deviation in trend?

我只是想跟進一些零售問題。我想，假設您預計第三季的趨勢不會出現任何重大偏差，因此 ORV 繼續保持低個位數的下降趨勢，這是否公平？那麼，當我們觀察船舶或摩托車時，是否有任何其他細分市場的趨勢應該有任何顯著偏差？

I think that's probably a fair way to think about it. I mean the one unknown at this point, which we haven't spent much time talking about is our snowmobile business. That's the one outlier. We're coming off of a really bad snow year from last year.

我認為這可能是個公平的思考方式。我的意思是，目前我們還沒有花太多時間討論的一個未知因素是我們的雪地摩托車業務。這是一個異常值。我們剛剛經歷了去年的一場非常嚴重的雪。

It's encouraging that there's some snow in the mountains right now, but we're sitting here in Minnesota and it's mid-60s, and there's still leaves on the trees. So we're certainly not seeing anything that's got everybody all encouraged. So outside of the snow business, I think those are realistic assumptions.

令人鼓舞的是，現在山上有一些積雪，但我們現在在明尼蘇達州，現在已經是 60 年代中期了，樹上仍然有葉子。所以我們當然沒有看到任何讓每個人都受到鼓舞的事情。因此，在雪業之外，我認為這些都是現實的假設。

Really helpful. And then just on the promotional environment, a similar type of question. How promotional do you expect the fourth quarter to be? Are you seeing any easing in the promo environment that's baked into your guide?

真的很有幫助。然後是關於促銷環境的類似問題。您預計第四季的促銷力道如何？您是否發現指南中的促銷環境有任何放鬆？

No. No. The encouraging thing is, from my standpoint, is we're in a pretty rough promo environment. And we're still -- we're back to the same percent of revenue we were in 2019. And if you think about the backdrop, it's not great.

不。不。從我的角度來看，令人鼓舞的是我們正處於一個相當艱難的促銷環境。我們仍然回到了 2019 年收入的相同百分比。如果你考慮一下背景，那就不太好。

Now certainly, it's been helpful. I talked about in my prepared remarks, we made some pricing adjustments where we had products that quite frankly, we're almost always on from a promo standpoint, so it made sense just to adjust the MSRP and essentially eliminate the promo on those products so that when consumers looking at a website, they see the actual pricing that they can expect to pay on that vehicle.

現在當然，它很有幫助。我在準備好的發言中談到，我們對我們的產品進行了一些定價調整，坦白說，從促銷的角度來看，我們幾乎總是在進行，因此調整建議零售價並基本上消除這些產品的促銷是有意義的，所以當消費者瀏覽網站時，他們會看到他們可以預期為該車輛支付的實際價格。

But outside of those types of adjustments, no, I don't see promo having any significant shifts in the fourth quarter.

但除了這些類型的調整之外，我不認為促銷活動在第四季有任何重大變化。

Saba Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

薩巴汗，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Great. I guess just maybe just tying off that entire discussion around promo and inventory. So it sounds like you are pretty confident in getting to that inventory reduction range you've talked about but maybe more of it comes from reduction of the shipment versus maybe matching some of the competitors on the level of promotional activity they're undertaking. Is that the right way to think about it?

偉大的。我想也許只是結束了圍繞促銷和庫存的整個討論。因此，聽起來您對達到您所討論的庫存減少範圍非常有信心，但可能更多來自於發貨量的減少，而不是在促銷活動的水平上與某些競爭對手相匹配。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

It's a combination. There's areas where we're going to be promotional to protect a segment. But in the instance that I was highlighting earlier, where we've got a competitor as inventory that's two or three years old, they're throwing everything at it. We just -- we're not going to go down that path. I don't view that as high quality [share] and we're just -- we're not going to participate.

這是一個組合。我們將在某些領域進行促銷以保護細分市場。但在我之前強調的例子中，我們有一個競爭對手作為兩三年前的庫存，他們正在全力以赴。我們只是──我們不會走那條路。我不認為這是高品質的[分享]，我們只是—我們不會參與。

But if we get to a point where we feel like interest rate buydowns start to move consumers off the sidelines because of the gap between the interest rate moves and where we're at are going to make a difference. There's things like that, that we will certainly lean into. But we're not going to do anything while we will pull shipments down where we need to. And that's why we adjusted our guidance.

但如果我們覺得利率下調開始讓消費者不再觀望，因為利率變動與我們目前所處的位置之間存在差距，那麼情況就會有所不同。諸如此類的事情，我們一定會關注。但在我們需要減少出貨量的同時，我們不會採取任何行動。這就是我們調整指導的原因。

Great. And then just last one on the the PG&A sales. Just maybe the resilience of those and where you're expecting in that business line as we work through the macro cycle here?

偉大的。最後是 PG&A 銷售額。也許這些業務的彈性以及當我們在宏觀週期中工作時您對該業務線的期望是什麼？

Yes. I mean certainly, the accessory side, we built that up substantially over the past decade. So there's a little bit more volatility there as we pull production down because substantial amount of the product that comes out of our factory is factory install of accessories.

是的。我的意思是，當然，在配件方面，我們在過去十年中大幅建立了這一點。因此，當我們降低產量時，波動性會更大一些，因為我們工廠生產的大量產品都是工廠安裝的配件。

But when we look at our parts business, that is far more resilient as we see consumers hold on to vehicles longer and look to repair the vehicles or even add accessories to extend the life of them. So it is far less volatile than the rest of the OEM side of the business, which is exactly what we've seen historically.

但當我們審視我們的零件業務時，我們發現消費者對車輛的持有時間更長，並希望修復車輛，甚至添加配件以延長車輛的使用壽命，因此它的彈性要大得多。因此，它的波動性遠低於 OEM 業務的其他部分，而這正是我們歷史上所看到的。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to the management team for any final remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給管理團隊以發表最後的評論。

Rocco, this is J.C. We don't have anything else. Thank you very much, everybody.

Rocco，這是 J.C。非常感謝大家。

Thank you, sir. And this does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for attending everyone -- for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝您，先生。今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家出席今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。