前進保險 (PGR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's second quarter investor event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today's event.

早安，感謝您今天參加 Progressive 的第二季投資人活動。我是投資者關係總監 Doug Constantine，我將擔任今天活動的主持人。

The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website.

除了已發佈在公司網站上的 10-K 表年度報告、10-Q 表季度報告和致股東的信中提供的評論外，公司不會對其業績發表任何詳細評論。

This quarter includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business, followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Introductory comments in the presentation were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with leaders featured in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.

本季度包括針對我們業務特定部分的演示，然後與我們的領導團隊成員進行問答環節。演講中的介紹評論之前已經錄製好了。完成先前錄製的發言後，我們將利用本次活動剩餘的 90 分鐘時間與錄製發言中出現的領導人以及管理團隊的其他成員進行現場問答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.

與往常一樣，本次活動的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，並受許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際事件和結果與今天活動中討論的結果有重大差異。

Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as supplemented by our 10-Q reports for the first and second quarters of 2025 where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.

有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告，以及我們 2025 年第一季度和第二季度的 10-Q 報告，您可以在其中找到有關影響我們業務的風險因素的討論、與前瞻性陳述相關的安全港聲明以及有關我們面臨的挑戰的其他討論。這些文件可透過我們網站 investors.progressive.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our Personal Lines President, Pat Callahan, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Pat?

今天首先，我很高興介紹我們的個人線路總裁 Pat Callahan，他將為我們作一些介紹性評論。拍？

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Through the second quarter, 2025 continues to be one of our best years on record by all objective measures. We delivered strong profitability while simultaneously growing at an incredible pace, adding over $5 billion in premiums written and nearly 2.4 million additional PIF during the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of last year.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。從所有客觀指標來看，截至第二季度，2025 年仍是我們有史以來最好的年份之一。我們在實現強勁獲利的同時，也實現了驚人的成長速度，與去年上半年相比，2025 年上半年增加了超過 50 億美元的保費收入和近 240 萬的額外 PIF。

We've previously said it's easy to grow an insurance company if you're not focused on underwriting profit and conversely, relatively easy to generate profit and insurance if you're not looking to grow. But simultaneously doing both, while operating in the highly competitive US P&C marketplace requires the rare combination of strategic focus and relentless execution that we consider key sources of Progressive's competitive advantage.

我們之前曾說過，如果您不專注於承保利潤，那麼發展一家保險公司就很容易；相反，如果您不尋求發展，那麼創造利潤和保險就相對容易。但是，在競爭激烈的美國財產和意外傷害保險市場中同時做到這兩點，需要將戰略重點和不懈的執行力結合起來，我們認為這是 Progressive 競爭優勢的關鍵來源。

Full statutory industry results released in June show that Progressive gained more than 1.5 points in personal auto market share in 2024 while outperforming the industry combined ratio by more than 7 points. Our 2024 market share increase was the largest share gain of any carrier in the past 15 years. This rare combination of profitable market share growth isn't an isolated event for Progressive. Over the past 15 years, we've increased our auto premium almost fivefold while simultaneously running close to 9 point wider underwriting profit margins.

6 月發布的完整法定行業結果顯示，Progressive 在 2024 年的個人汽車市場份額增長了 1.5 個百分點以上，同時行業綜合比率高出 7 個百分點以上。我們的 2024 年市佔率增幅是過去 15 年來所有航空公司中最大的。這種罕見的獲利性市佔率成長組合對於 Progressive 來說並不是一個孤立事件。在過去的 15 年裡，我們的汽車保險費增加了近五倍，同時承保利潤率提高了近 9 個百分點。

Our performance is the direct result of executing against our four strategic pillars. People and culture, product breadth, brand and competitive prices. Today, we'll focus on competitive prices and provide you with some insights into how our ability to predict and price to future loss costs and to rapidly deploy products and pricing to match our premiums to our costs remain key ingredients of our continued success.

我們的業績直接源自於我們四大策略支柱的執行。人和文化、產品廣度、品牌和有競爭力的價格。今天，我們將重點關注競爭性價格，並向您提供一些見解，說明我們如何預測和定價未來的損失成本，以及如何快速部署產品和定價以使我們的保費與成本相匹配，這仍然是我們持續成功的關鍵因素。

The compounded effect of doing this with each successive product model has enabled us to continue to make great progress towards achieving our vision of becoming the number 1 destination for consumers, agents and business owners for insurance and other financial needs.

對每個連續產品模型採取這種做法的複合效應使我們能夠繼續取得巨大進步，實現我們的願景，即成為消費者、代理商和企業主在保險和其他金融需求方面的首選目的地。

Building on our exceptional underwriting profit performance, we continue to invest to drive continued growth. Despite seeing greater competition now than we did at the beginning of the year, through the second quarter, we continued to see strong demand for our personal auto products across both of our distribution channels.

基於我們卓越的承保利潤表現，我們將繼續投資以推動持續成長。儘管現在的競爭比年初更加激烈，但到了第二季度，我們兩個分銷管道對個人汽車產品的需求仍然強勁。

The independent agent channel is a great barometer for the competitive environment where available coverage options across carriers are presented via comparative raters, which provide agents and their client's real-time comparisons of how our products compare to those offered by other carriers. Every indication is that our auto products have continued to outperform on a relative basis as evidenced by strong year-to-date double-digit growth in new applications, premiums written and policies in force.

獨立代理通路是衡量競爭環境的一個很好的晴雨表，透過比較評級器呈現各個承運商可用的覆蓋範圍選項，為代理商及其客戶提供我們的產品與其他承運商提供的產品的即時比較。種種跡象表明，我們的汽車產品繼續表現出色，年初至今的新申請、已簽保費和有效保單均實現了強勁的兩位數增長。

On the direct side, our marketing engine remains highly effective, generating high-quality prospects at near-record levels, and our conversion rates indicate that despite the increasing marketing spend, our prices are still highly competitive and provide consumers a good value relative to other end market options.

在直接方面，我們的行銷引擎仍然非常有效，以接近創紀錄的水平產生高品質的潛在客戶，我們的轉換率表明，儘管行銷支出不斷增加，但我們的價格仍然極具競爭力，並為消費者提供了相對於其他終端市場選擇的良好價值。

Year-to-date, we have spent $2.5 billion on marketing, an increase of about $900 million compared to this time last year. And as our volume denominator grows, achieving year-over-year new application growth becomes more challenging. But so far, we have continued to leverage our scale in identifying new opportunities to refine where and how we invest our marketing spend to drive profitable growth.

今年迄今為止，我們在行銷上已花費 25 億美元，與去年同期相比增加了約 9 億美元。隨著我們數量分母的成長，實現逐年新應用的成長變得更具挑戰性。但到目前為止，我們一直在利用我們的規模來尋找新的機會，以改善我們行銷支出的投資地點和方式，從而推動獲利成長。

Similar to Personal Lines, we continue to rapidly grow market share in our Commercial Lines business while consistently beating industry combined ratios by 8 points, 10 points and as much as 20 points over the last 20 years. This consistent profitability is particularly impressive when looking at how US commercial auto continues to struggle with profitability, producing its 14 consecutive unprofitable calendar year in 2024.

與個人險類似，我們的商業險業務的市佔率持續快速成長，同時在過去 20 年中始終以 8 個百分點、10 個百分點甚至 20 個百分點的高出產業綜合比率。考慮到美國商用汽車公司持續在盈利方面苦苦掙扎，並在 2024 年連續第 14 年虧損，這種持續的盈利能力尤其令人印象深刻。

Our success can be attributed in part to the intense focus on commercial auto as a core line of business in our Commercial Lines offering. This auto focus, in conjunction with introducing the segmentation of commercial auto into business market targets more than 10 years ago, has enabled us to capitalize on meaningful and actionable differences between resulting vehicle types and usage that we can operationalize across all aspects of the business.

我們的成功部分歸功於我們對商用汽車的高度關注，將其作為商業險種的核心業務線。這種對汽車行業的關注，加上十多年前將商用汽車細分引入商業市場目標，使我們能夠利用由此產生的車輛類型和用途之間有意義且可操作的差異，並將其應用於業務的各個方面。

This granular focus has allowed us to quickly develop segment-level insights and execute proactive rate and underwriting actions at the BMT level to deliver strong division level performance as we did late last year when we adjusted rates and underwriting across BMTs to drive written premium growth across all our BMTs other than for higher transportation. We're now extending those capabilities to our expansion product lines like the business owner policy product.

這種細緻的關注使我們能夠快速形成細分層面的洞察力，並在 BMT 層面執行主動的費率和承保行動，從而實現強勁的部門層面的業績，就像我們去年年底所做的那樣，當時我們調整了 BMT 的費率和承保，以推動除更高運輸費用外所有 BMT 的已承保保費增長。我們現在正在將這些功能擴展到我們的擴展產品線，例如企業主保險產品。

To support long-term positive contributions from these newer businesses, we leverage established pricing and product delivery capabilities to ensure we have the necessary monitoring and insights in addition to leading capacity and the delivery agility to bring rapid rate and underwriting adjustments to market.

為了支持這些新業務的長期積極貢獻，我們利用現有的定價和產品交付能力，確保我們除了擁有領先的能力和交付靈活性之外，還擁有必要的監控和洞察力，從而為市場帶來快速的費率和承保調整。

Leveraging these proven capabilities should help our expansion commercial businesses deliver the profitable growth we expect from all of our underwriting businesses. A significant contributor to delivering our continued profitable growth is the ability to quickly and decisively respond to changes in loss costs to ensure we can remain open for business when inflationary pressures create hard markets and elevated shopping levels.

利用這些經過驗證的能力應該可以幫助我們擴展商業業務，實現我們期望從所有承保業務中獲得的獲利成長。實現我們持續獲利成長的一個重要因素是能夠快速果斷地應對損失成本的變化，以確保在通膨壓力造成市場緊張和購物水平上升時我們能夠繼續營業。

This is no small feat, especially given the lack of historical precedent for some of the drivers of recent loss cost increases. Fast forward to today, and we're similarly working to model first, second and third order effects of global tariffs and potential supply chain disruptions to determine the appropriate future rate levels for these emerging macroeconomic events.

這絕非易事，尤其是考慮到近期導致損失成本增加的一些因素缺乏歷史先例。快轉到今天，我們同樣在努力模擬全球關稅和潛在供應鏈中斷的一階、二階和三階效應，以確定這些新興宏觀經濟事件的適當未來利率水準。

Our pricing teams are responsible for translating highly complex and dynamic internal and external data into timely rate level recommendations. Each of our product teams are supported by a group of these talented individuals who leverage complex actuarial methods to understand and trend our future costs towards our goal of collecting the right premium to cover both the costs we'll incur and our target profit margin.

我們的定價團隊負責將高度複雜和動態的內部和外部數據轉化為及時的費率水準建議。我們的每個產品團隊都由一群才華橫溢的個人提供支持，他們利用複雜的精算方法來了解和趨勢我們的未來成本，以實現我們的目標，即收取正確的保費，以涵蓋我們將產生的成本和目標利潤率。

Today, we'll be diving into the details of our personal and commercial lines pricing theory and practices. To guide us through this, we have two senior pricing leaders with us. First, Brad Granger, who has been our national auto pricing leader for the past 17 years and who will be celebrating his 25 progressive anniversary later this month. We'll discuss some of the technical theories behind our pricing methodology.

今天，我們將深入探討個人和商業險定價理論和實踐的細節。為了指導我們解決這個問題，我們有兩位高階定價領導。首先是布拉德·格蘭傑 (Brad Granger)，他在過去 17 年裡一直擔任我們國家汽車定價領導人，本月晚些時候他將慶祝他的 25 個進步紀念日。我們將討論定價方法背後的一些技術理論。

Following Brad, Jen Kubit, who has been with Progressive for 21 years, and recently took on the leadership of our Commercial Lines pricing organization, will explain how these theories are applied in practice at Progressive. Once again, thank you for joining us today.

繼布拉德之後，在 Progressive 工作 21 年、最近擔任我們商業線路定價組織領導的 Jen Kubit 將解釋這些理論如何在 Progressive 中得到實踐應用。再次感謝您今天加入我們。

I'll now turn it over to Brad. Brad?

現在我將把發言權交給布拉德。布拉德？

Thanks, Pat, and thank you, everyone, for joining this morning. What is our product? A property and casualty insurance companies such as Progressive doesn't actually manufacture a physical product. Our product is not tangible. Instead, it is a transfer of risk from insured to insurer exchanging the small probability of an adverse financial event in exchange for the payment of a premium.

謝謝帕特，也謝謝大家今天早上的參加。我們的產品是什麼？像 Progressive 這樣的財產和意外傷害保險公司實際上並不會生產實體產品。我們的產品不是有形的。相反，它是將風險從被保險人轉移到保險公司，用發生不利財務事件的小概率事件來換取保費的支付。

That transfer of risk is outlined in our policy contract. And that transfer of risk is both dependent on when accidents occur or the accident date and time bound within our short-term contract lengths of 6 or 12 months.

我們的保單合約中概述了風險轉移。風險的轉移取決於事故發生的時間或我們 6 個月或 12 個月的短期合約期間內的事故日期和時間。

Car accidents are not corn flakes as opposed to a tangible product like corn flakes where costs are largely known before the product is priced and sold. Progressive doesn't know for sure what our costs are until long after our product is priced and sold. That is precisely the transfer of risk from insured to insurer. I just described only now from the perspective of the insurer that risk is now ours. And as we will discuss in a few minutes, we do many things to mitigate that risk within both our pricing science and our operationalization of getting the right rate to market quickly.

車禍不是玉米片，不同於玉米片這樣的有形產品，在產品定價和銷售之前，其成本基本上是已知的。在我們的產品定價並售出很久之後，Progressive 才確切知道我們的成本是多少。這正是風險從被保險人轉移到保險人身上的風險。我剛才只是從保險公司的角度來描述，風險現在是我們的了。正如我們將在幾分鐘內討論的那樣，我們在定價科學和快速將正確的價格推向市場的操作方面做了很多事情來降低這種風險。

Pricing to expected cost. First, when we talk about pricing for costs, we were referring to all parts of our premium dollar losses, loss adjustment expenses, or LAE, general expenses and profit. According to the Casualty Actuarial Society statement of principles on ratemaking, A rate is reasonable and not excessive, inadequate or unfairly discriminatory. If it is an actuarially sound estimate of the expected value of all future costs associated with an individual risk transfer.

按預期成本定價。首先，當我們談論成本定價時，我們指的是保費損失、損失調整費用或 LAE、一般費用和利潤的所有部分。根據傷亡精算協會關於費率制定的原則聲明，費率是合理的，不應過高、不足或存在不公平的歧視。如果它是與單一風險轉移相關的所有未來成本的預期值的精算合理估計。

A few things to highlight there. First, it references expected value of future costs where actual outcomes could be lower or higher. Second, it is always forward-looking or perspective as it is an estimate of future costs. Third, today's presentation will focus primarily on not excessive and not inadequate as opposed to not unfairly discriminatory which is largely in the domain of our product development departments.

有幾件事需要強調。首先，它參考了未來成本的預期值，而實際結果可能會更低或更高。其次，它始終具有前瞻性或前瞻性，因為它是對未來成本的估計。第三，今天的演講主要集中在不過度、不不足，而不是不公平歧視的問題上，這主要屬於我們產品開發部門的職責範圍。

This is analogous to the field of economics and the distinction between macroeconomics and the focus on changes in whole economies and aggregate variables and microeconomics and the focus on changes in individual firms and consumers. We will focus today on macro level pricing as opposed to the individual relative risk rating and segmentation of micro level pricing.

這類似於經濟學領域，宏觀經濟學關注整個經濟和整體變數的變化，微觀經濟學關注單一企業和消費者的變化。今天我們將重點放在宏觀定價，而不是個體相對風險評級和微觀定價細分。

And in addition to our approach being aligned with actuarial principles, it is also well aligned with state regulation as nearly all states legally require that rates are not excessive, not inadequate and not unfairly discriminatory. And it also fits quite well within Progressive's vision to be consumers' number 1 choice via competitive rates. But to do so by growing profitably and adhering to our core value of profit.

我們的方法除了符合精算原則之外，還與州法規一致，因為幾乎所有州都法律要求費率不能過高、不能不足、不能不公平地歧視。它也非常符合 Progressive 的願景，即透過具有競爭力的價格成為消費者的首選。但要做到這一點，需要實現獲利成長並堅持我們的核心利潤價值。

The fundamental pricing questions. There are two questions that completely underlie our approach. Number one, if we don't do anything to current rates, what loss plus LAE ratio should we expect in the upcoming rate revision for the policies we are about to write. And number two, what do we need to do to current rates in order to hit our combined ratio target in the upcoming rate revision for policies we are about to write. We refer to these as the fundamental pricing questions. And in the coming slides, we will build the fundamental pricing equation to answer these questions.

基本定價問題。有兩個問題完全決定了我們的方法。第一，如果我們不對當前費率採取任何措施，那麼在即將修訂的費率中，我們即將簽發的保單的損失加 LAE 比率應該是多少。第二，我們需要對目前利率做些什麼才能在即將制定的保單利率修訂中達到我們的綜合比率目標。我們將這些稱為基本定價問題。在接下來的幻燈片中，我們將建立基本的定價方程式來回答這些問題。

Actuaries develop predictions that minimize bias and variants. An enormous competitive advantage that Progressive has is the quality granularity and quick availability of data. Our growth and scale have only deepened that advantage. But if you don't think you have a blind spot, then you have a blind spot. And with all of this quality data, if we are not careful, we could slice the cake and slice the cake and slice the cake until all we have are crumbs. This is where we, in our pricing organizations, come in.

精算師制定的預測可以最大程度地減少偏差和變數。Progressive 的巨大競爭優勢在於資料的品質粒度和快速可用性。我們的成長和規模只會加深這一優勢。但如果你不認為自己有盲點，那麼你就有盲點。對於所有這些高品質數據，如果我們不小心，我們就會把蛋糕切得越來越小，直到只剩下碎屑。這就是我們的定價組織發揮作用的地方。

Actuaries are experts in matching rates of risk, balancing responsiveness and stability and maximizing accuracy and precision. And as we will see in the coming slides, as we try to price this accident year promise, our data is trying to fool us. There is no single perfect piece of data. Our work centers around correcting for bias or accuracy and spread and variance or precision and finding signal through noise. And bias, as used here refers to statistical bias.

精算師是匹配風險率、平衡響應性和穩定性以及最大限度提高準確性和精確度的專家。正如我們將在接下來的幻燈片中看到的，當我們試圖為這個事故年承諾定價時，我們的數據試圖欺騙我們。不存在單一完美的數據。我們的工作主要圍繞著糾正偏差或準確性、擴散、方差或精度以及透過雜訊尋找訊號。這裡使用的偏見是指統計偏誤。

From Wikipedia, quote in the field of statistics, bias is a systematic tendency in which the methods used to gather data and estimate a sample statistic present an inaccurate, skewed or distorted biased depiction of reality. Every month, Progressive releases financial information publicly describing our underwriting performance by line of business.

引自維基百科，在統計領域，偏見是一種系統性趨勢，其中用於收集數據和估計樣本統計數據的方法呈現出不準確、傾斜或扭曲的現實描述。每個月，Progressive 都會發布財務訊息，公開描述我們按業務線劃分的承保業績。

To align with generally accepted accounting principles, this is predominantly a calendar year or month view that includes incurred activity on all losses and LAE regardless of date of occurrence. For the purposes of ratemaking, however, we are attempting to price for the accident year that is ensuring that we have the correct rates at the time the accidents occur which I'll explain further in the next few slides.

為了符合公認會計原則，這主要是日曆年或月視圖，其中包括所有損失和 LAE 發生的活動，無論發生日期為何。然而，為了製定費率，我們試圖根據事故年份來定價，以確保在事故發生時我們有正確的費率，我將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中進一步解釋。

Calendar year incurred losses are a combination of paid losses and change in reserves. They can also be subdivided to show contribution to that calendar year of current accident year versus all prior accident years. We will now use a historical example derived from a progressive personal auto state comprehensive coverage to demonstrate how we can effectively answer the fundamental pricing questions.

日曆年發生的損失是已支付損失和儲備金變化的組合。它們還可以細分，以顯示當前事故年份與所有先前事故年份對該日曆年的貢獻。我們現在將使用漸進式個人汽車國家綜合保險的歷史案例來說明如何有效地回答基本定價問題。

All amounts are in thousands of dollars. The first piece of data we readily have is trailing 12 calendar year incurred losses of $43.24 million. As we just stated, calendar year incurred losses can also be subdivided to show contribution of current accident year versus all prior accident years, as can be seen here as we see the same paid loss plus change in reserves pattern for both the current accident year and all prior accident years.

所有金額均以千美元為單位。我們掌握的第一條數據是過去 12 個日曆年的損失為 4,324 萬美元。正如我們剛才所說，日曆年發生的損失也可以細分為顯示當前事故年份與所有先前事故年份的貢獻，正如在這裡所看到的，對於當前事故年份和所有先前事故年份，我們看到相同的已付損失加上準備金變化模式。

We will now use our simple example to fill in values for each element of the formulas. And in this example, when we isolate the contribution of this accident year, to the current calendar year incurred losses of $43.24 million, we see that the current accident year incurred losses are $43.56 million.

我們現在將使用簡單的範例來填入公式中每個元素的值。在這個例子中，當我們將該事故年份的貢獻與當前日曆年發生的 4,324 萬美元的損失分開時，我們會發現當前事故年份發生的損失為 4,356 萬美元。

The other element of calendar year incurred losses is the contribution of prior accident years, also known as prior accident year runoff, which in this case, is negative $327,000. The $43.56 million current accident year losses is what we need to start to answer the fundamental pricing questions.

日曆年發生損失的另一個因素是前幾年事故的貢獻，也稱為前幾年事故損失，在本例中為負 327,000 美元。我們需要計算當前事故年度 4356 萬美元的損失來回答基本的定價問題。

Unbiased ultimate accident year losses equal accident year incurred losses, times loss development factor. Loss reserving goal is to set financial reserves to be adequate with minimal variation from date of loss until final selling. We examine the development over time of historical accident year losses as claims are reported and settled across the columns of the loss development triangle, as can be seen in the upper right. That is known as a loss development factor.

無偏最終事故年損失等於事故年發生的損失乘以損失發展係數。損失準備金的目標是設定充足的財務儲備，使從損失發生之日起到最終銷售的變化最小。我們研究了歷史事故年度損失隨時間的發展情況，因為索賠是在損失發展三角形的各列中報告和解決的，如右上圖所示。這稱為損失發展因素。

In this case, the reserves set by claims and loss reserving have historically been accurate. In our example, that loss development factor is then slightly less than 1 at 0.99. At this point, we can also bring in another piece of data that we readily have, trailing 12 calendar year earned premium of $61.14 million.

在這種情況下，索賠和損失準備金設定的準備金在歷史上一直是準確的。在我們的例子中，損失發展係數略小於1，為0.99。此時，我們還可以引入另一項現成的數據，即過去12個日曆年的已賺保費為6114萬美元。

Loss adjustment expenses are correlated with losses. Loss adjustment expenses can be divided into defense and cost containment or DCC, which is defense, litigation and medical cost containment expenses, whether internal costs or external fees and adjusting another or A&O which is adjusting in other overhead expenses, whether internal costs or external fees.

損失調整費用與損失有關。損失調整費用可以分為辯護和成本控製或 DCC，即辯護、訴訟和醫療成本控制費用，無論是內部成本還是外部費用，以及調整另一項或 A&O，即調整其他間接費用，無論是內部成本還是外部費用。

Both can change in the short term and long term depending on a number of factors, including attorney representation rate, statutory and regulatory changes, changes in efficiency in our claims organization among other possible causes but in general, tend to move with losses. In this example, we have selected LAE to be 12% of losses.

兩者都可能在短期和長期內發生變化，這取決於許多因素，包括律師代理率、法定和監管變化、索賠組織效率變化以及其他可能的原因，但總的來說，往往會隨著損失而變化。在這個例子中，我們選擇 LAE 為損失的 12%。

A portion of our costs are mean reverting, forecasting elements of the fundamental pricing equation deals with two distinct forms of time series. First, time series was stationarity. The graph on the left. This series tends to revert to a historical mean and requires a longer experience period to provide an effective future forecast.

我們的部分成本是平均值迴歸的，基本定價方程式的預測元素涉及兩種不同形式的時間序列。首先，時間序列具有平穩性。左邊的圖表。該系列傾向於恢復到歷史平均值，並且需要更長的經驗期才能提供有效的未來預測。

Weather is a prime example of where this approach is warranted. Care must be taken to decide whether such historical mean needs to be slightly adjusted going forward due to environmental changes in our future pricing period.

天氣就是這種方法的典型例子。必須謹慎決定是否需要由於未來定價期的環境變化而對這種歷史平均值進行微調。

Time series without stationarity. The graph on the right. That series does not revert to a historical mean, it is dominated by trend and seasonality. We will discuss this further when we examine frequency trend, severity trend and premium trend.

時間序列不具有平穩性。右邊的圖表。該系列不會恢復到歷史平均值，而是受趨勢和季節性主導。當我們檢查頻率趨勢、嚴重程度趨勢和保費趨勢時，我們將進一步討論這一點。

In this example, the last year contained $14 million of wind, flood, hail losses, well above our long-term expected average. Therefore, restating the long-term expectation implies a weather factor of 0.926. For commercial lines, an additional area where we must consider this paradigm of reversion to the mean is in treatment of large losses. As with weather, care must be taken to decide whether such historical mean needs to be slightly adjusted going forward due to environmental changes in our future pricing period.

在這個例子中，去年風災、洪災和冰雹造成的損失為 1,400 萬美元，遠高於我們長期預期的平均值。因此，重申長期預期意味著天氣因子為0.926。對於商業險種，我們必須考慮這種均值回歸範式的另一個領域是處理巨額損失。與天氣一樣，必須謹慎決定是否需要根據未來定價期間的環境變化對這種歷史平均值進行微調。

Frequency and severity of losses change over time. What changes each over time? Essentially, this is time as a segmentation variable. It helps to separate the multiplicative components of losses as the drivers of each can be different. Frequency is the probability of having a claim, severity is the dollar amount of the claim itself. Factors that can affect frequency include vehicle technology, safety laws, product mix, for example, deductibles or tier, statements, new business growth, retention, weather, seasonality, underwriting and billing.

損失的頻率和嚴重程度隨時間而變化。隨著時間的推移，每個都發生了哪些變化？本質上，這是時間作為分割變數。它有助於分離損失的乘性成分，因為每個損失的驅動因素可能不同。頻率是發生索賠的機率，嚴重性是索賠本身的金額。影響頻率的因素包括車輛技術、安全法規、產品組合（例如免賠額或等級）、報表、新業務成長、保留、天氣、季節性、承保和計費。

Apart from the magnitude of the trend itself, the number of months that we need to trend is important too. That is a function of time to price file, get approval and elevate, policy term and rate revision length. Remember the bull's eye slide from earlier? The precision of our estimates declines, meaning we have a greater spread, the further into the future we have to estimate. That is a particular importance in commercial auto as they have a preponderance of annual policies which increases the number of months into the future, we must trend.

除了趨勢本身的幅度之外，我們需要趨勢的月份數也很重要。這是定價文件、獲得批准和提升的時間、政策期限和費率修訂長度的函數。還記得之前的靶心滑動嗎？我們的估計精度會下降，這意味著我們需要估計的未來越遠，分佈就越分散。這對於商用汽車來說尤其重要，因為它們擁有大量的年度保單，這增加了未來的月份數，我們必須趨勢化。

In our example, we have estimated frequency trend to be plus 1% annually. That needs to be applied for approximately 16 months from the midpoint of the historic period to the future average accident deed of our prospective pricing period. The faster we can analyze our data, the shorter we can make our policy terms and the more frequently we can elevate rate revisions, the fewer months we need to trend and the more we can reduce spread of outcomes and increased precision in our forecasts.

在我們的例子中，我們估計頻率趨勢每年增加 1%。這需要從歷史時期的中點到我們預期定價期的未來平均事故契約應用大約 16 個月。我們分析數據的速度越快，我們制定政策的期限就越短，我們提高利率修訂的頻率就越高，我們需要趨勢分析的時間就越少，我們就能減少結果的差異並提高預測的準確性。

The process is similar for severity. Factors that can affect severity include vehicle technology, safety laws, product mix. For example, limits, state mix, medical inflation, used car values, car part inflation, body shop labor rates, weather, seasonality, claims staffing.

其嚴重程度過程類似。影響嚴重程度的因素包括車輛技術、安全法規、產品組合。例如，限制、國家組合、醫療通膨、二手車價值、汽車零件通膨、車身修理廠勞動力率、天氣、季節性、索賠人員配備。

In our example, we have estimated severity trend to be plus 7% annually. As with frequency trend that needs to be applied for approximately 16 months from the midpoint of the historic period to the future average accident date of our prospective pricing period. The further into the future, we have to estimate the wider the spread of future possible outcomes.

在我們的例子中，我們估計嚴重程度趨勢每年增加 7%。與頻率趨勢一樣，需要從歷史時期的中點到我們預期定價期間的未來平均事故日期應用大約 16 個月。展望未來越遠，我們必須估計未來可能結果的分佈範圍就越廣。

Progressive changes rates frequently. Remember, the fundamental pricing equation is working towards answering the fundamental pricing question of determining what we need to do to current rates. Progressive changes rates a lot. Consequently, any recent historical period of earned premium will include premium written at varying rate levels. This phenomenon is further exacerbated by the presence of varying policy terms, 6 months and 12 months.

漸進式變化率經常變化。請記住，基本定價方程式是為了回答基本定價問題，即確定我們需要對當前利率做些什麼。漸進式變化率很高。因此，任何近期歷史時期的已賺保費都將包括以不同費率等級簽發的保費。6個月和12個月等不同的保單期限進一步加劇了這種現象。

So we need to adjust this historical premium entirely to today's current rate level. In our example, we have elevated two rate decreases in the last year. That means our current rate level factor is 0.958. Controlling for the effect of product mix shifts on loss trend. A frequency or severity trend that is caused by a product mix shift will not necessarily mean our rate adequacy position, as seen by our fundamental pricing equation will shift.

因此，我們需要將這一歷史溢價完全調整到今天的現行利率水準。在我們的例子中，去年我們已經提高了兩次降息幅度。這意味著我們目前的費率水準因子為0.958。控制產品組合變化對損失趨勢的影響。產品組合變化所引起的頻率或嚴重程度趨勢並不一定意味著我們的費率充足性狀況會發生變化，正如我們的基本定價方程式所示。

For example, Progressive has been shifting to Robinsons for several years. In isolation, what would we expect to happen to frequency and severity of losses. Frequency would decrease significantly due to more lower risk drivers in our book, severity would increase for liability coverages due to higher purchased limits of liability.

例如，Progressive 幾年來一直在轉移到 Robinsons 上。孤立地看，我們預期損失的頻率和嚴重程度會發生什麼變化。由於我們帳簿中低風險駕駛員增多，事故發生頻率將顯著下降，而由於購買的責任限額提高，責任險的嚴重性將會增加。

Overall, losses per exposure would decrease as the frequency decline would overwhelm the severity increase. But we would also be collecting less premium per exposure as we charge less for Robinsons for exposure. We control for the effect of product mix shifts on our frequency and severity via premium trend which measures changes in average earned premium at current rate level over time.

總體而言，由於頻率的下降將抵消嚴重程度的增加，因此每次暴露的損失將會減少。但是，由於我們對羅賓遜的曝光收費較低，因此我們每次曝光收取的保費也會減少。我們透過保費趨勢來控制產品組合變化對頻率和嚴重程度的影響，保費趨勢衡量當前費率水準下平均已賺保費隨時間的變化。

We must put all premium at a common rate level as only looking at changes in average earned premium over time would be confounded by Progressive's frequent rate changes. The graphs on bodily injury earned premium on this slide illustrate this. While Progressive's average earned premium per exposure has increased due to our rate increases in recent years, the average earned premium per exposure when controlling for that, i.e., at current rate level has declined.

我們必須將所有保費置於一個共同的費率水平，因為只關註一段時間內平均已賺保費的變化會因 Progressive 頻繁的費率變化而產生混淆。這張投影片上的人身傷害保費圖表說明了這一點。雖然由於近年來費率的提高，Progressive 的每筆風險敞口平均賺取保費有所增加，但在控制這一因素（即當前費率水平）的情況下，每筆風險敞口平均賺取保費有所下降。

The net effect of the rate increases and product mix shift is still to have increasing bodily injury average earned premium per exposure. And therefore, a product mix shift will not necessarily mean our rate adequacy position would shift. It would only change if we are shifting into a part of our book that has a different relative level of profitability.

費率上漲和產品組合轉變的淨效應仍然是每次人身傷害保險的平均保費增加。因此，產品組合的轉變並不一定意味著我們的費率充足性狀況會改變。只有當我們轉向具有不同相對獲利水準的帳簿部分時，情況才會改變。

If we are shifting into a part of our book that is less profitable, the rate need, as indicated by the fundamental pricing equation would go up as frequency/severity would rise more than premium, and we would need more rate. If we are shifting into a part of our book that is more profitable, the rate need, as indicated by the fundamental pricing equation would go down as frequency/severity would rise less than premium and we would need less rate.

如果我們轉向利潤較低的部分，則基本定價方程式所示的費率需求將會上升，因為頻率/嚴重程度的上升幅度將超過保費，因此我們需要更高的費率。如果我們轉向利潤較高的部分，那麼基本定價方程式所顯示的費率需求將會下降，因為頻率/嚴重程度的上升幅度小於保費，我們需要的費率也會降低。

In our example, here, in contrast to the graphs of progressive bodily injury, annual premium trend is actually positive at plus 5%. And like frequency and severity trend, that needs to be applied for approximately 16 months from the midpoint of the historic period to the future average accident date of our prospective pricing period.

在我們的例子中，與漸進式人身傷害圖表相比，年度保費趨勢實際上是正值，增加了 5%。與頻率和嚴重程度趨勢一樣，這需要從歷史時期的中點到我們預期定價期的未來平均事故日期應用大約 16 個月。

What target loss plus LAE ratio would meet our underwriting profit target? First, we determined a forward-looking estimate of expense ratio. Second, we work backwards to determine our target loss ratio, which is equal to 1 minus the expense ratio minus profit.

目標損失加上 LAE 比率多少才符合我們的承保利潤目標？首先，我們確定了費用率的前瞻性估計。其次，我們反向推導確定目標損失率，即1減費用率減利潤。

In our example, expense ratio is 17.7% of premium, together with our profit target of 4% and our budgetary loss plus LAE ratio is 78.3%. Some elements are correlated. While we have detailed the elements of the fundamental pricing equation individually, we do not assume the correlations do not exist between elements.

在我們的例子中，費用率為保費的 17.7%，加上我們的利潤目標為 4%，我們的預算損失加 LAE 比率為 78.3%。有些元素是相關的。雖然我們已經分別詳細說明了基本定價方程式的各個要素，但我們並沒有假設要素之間不存在相關性。

Some examples are losses and LAE premium trend or product mix and frequency trend, premium trend or product mix and severity trend, LAE and severity trend, loss development factors and severity trend, premium trend or product mix and expenses via the budgetary loss and loss adjustment expense ratio.

一些例子是損失和 LAE 保費趨勢或產品組合和頻率趨勢、保費趨勢或產品組合和嚴重程度趨勢、LAE 和嚴重程度趨勢、損失發展因素和嚴重程度趨勢、保費趨勢或產品組合和費用透過預算損失和損失調整費用比率。

Understanding these patterns can inform our predictions of each element and improve accuracy and precision of the fundamental pricing equation. Balancing responsiveness with stability. Remember the bull's eye diagram from earlier, we always seek truth but observe data which is truth plus random noise.

了解這些模式可以為我們對每個元素的預測提供信息，並提高基本定價方程式的準確性和精確度。平衡響應性和穩定性。回想一下之前的靶心圖，我們總是尋求真理，但觀察數據卻是真理加上隨機雜訊。

Credibility, also known as the crown jewel of casualty actuarial science helps us ultimately deliver the best minimum variance unbiased estimate or as close to the bull's-eye pattern in the lower right-hand corner as possible and allows us to slice the cake optimally to balance responsiveness and stability and achieve forecasts that minimize both bias and variances.

可信度，也被稱為傷亡精算科學的皇冠上的寶石，幫助我們最終提供最佳的最小方差無偏估計，或盡可能接近右下角的靶心圖案，並使我們能夠最佳地切分蛋糕以平衡響應性和穩定性，並實現最小化偏差和方差的預測。

We want to emphasize recent data such that random noise is kept to an acceptable level. And we want to emphasize that recent data because it is closest to what we can expect in our future pricing period in terms of our book of business and the external environment. But there can be a trade-off there as that data can be thinner and noisier and we need to make adjustments to account for that noise.

我們希望強調最近的數據，以便將隨機雜訊保持在可接受的水平。我們要強調最近的數據，因為就我們的業務和外部環境而言，它最接近我們對未來定價期的預期。但這可能存在一個權衡，因為資料可能更稀疏、雜訊更大，我們需要做出調整來消除這些雜訊。

Credibility is the number between and including zero and one that we use to weight our data. The higher credibility is the more weight we attach to our data and the fundamental pricing equation. A sample of experience reaches full credibility, so credibility equals one. If we have enough claims that 90% of the time, our experience is within plus or minus 5% of the true value. That standard for full credibility for each coverage is determined through complex actuarial formulas and increases as the variability of experience increases.

可信度是我們用來加權資料的介於零和一之間的數字。可信度越高，我們就越重視我們的數據和基本定價方程式。經驗樣本達到完全可信度，因此可信度等於一。如果我們有足夠的索賠，那麼 90% 的時間裡，我們的經驗都在真實值的正負 5% 以內。每項保險的完全可信度標準都是透過複雜的精算公式確定的，並且隨著經驗變化的增加而提高。

In our example, the standard for full credibility is 4,559 claims. We have over 27,000 claims in our experience period. So we have full credibility and credibility equals 1 or 100%. Our growth and scale has significantly enhanced our credibility and our ability to best react to changes in our environment. And in general, for personal auto, we have achieved that full credibility with one year of data in the overwhelming majority of our state channel coverage combinations.

在我們的例子中，完全可信的標準是 4,559 個索賠。在我們的經驗期內，我們已處理了超過 27,000 起索賠。因此我們擁有充分的可信度，可信度等於 1 或 100%。我們的成長和規模極大地提高了我們的信譽以及我們對環境變化做出最佳反應的能力。總體而言，對於個人汽車而言，我們在絕大多數州通路覆蓋組合中憑藉一年的數據實現了完全可信。

We now have developed the fundamental pricing equation where we can answer the first fundamental pricing question. If we don't do anything to current rates, what loss plus LAE ratio should we expect in the upcoming rate revision for the policies we are about to write. So that's our experience loss plus LAE ratio.

現在我們已經發展出了基本定價方程，可以回答第一個基本定價問題。如果我們不對目前利率採取任何措施，那麼在即將修訂的利率中，我們即將簽訂的保單的損失加 LAE 比率應該是多少。這就是我們的經驗損失加上 LAE 比率。

We can also answer the second fundamental pricing question, what do we need to do to current rates in order to hit our combined ratio target in the upcoming rate revision for policies we are about to write. That's our experienced loss plus LAE ratio divided by our budgetary loss plus LAE ratio. And one final step is to weight our estimate with a complement via credibility.

我們也可以回答第二個基本定價問題，我們需要對當前利率做些什麼才能在即將制定的政策利率修訂中達到我們的綜合比率目標。這是我們的經驗損失加上 LAE 比率除以我們的預算損失加 LAE 比率。最後一步是透過可信度對我們的估計進行加權。

So the experience loss plus LAE ratio divided by the budgetary loss plus LAE ratio times credibility plus a complement of credibility times 1 minus credibility. The complement is an alternate estimate of rate need apart from the fundamental pricing equation that augments the fundamental pricing equation with an estimate of future net trend.

因此，經驗損失加上 LAE 比率除以預算損失加 LAE 比率乘以可信度加上可信度補數乘以 1 減去可信度。補充是除了基本定價方程式之外的另一種利率需求估計，它透過對未來淨趨勢的估計來補充基本定價方程式。

In our example, we used a complement of credibility of plus 2.4%. The final product is what we refer to as a credibility weighted rate level indication here that is plus 1.3%. This concludes the theory of pricing. As you can see, it's complex with many variables and considerations and thus many ways to go astray. This is really, really hard to do successfully.

在我們的例子中，我們使用了可信度加 2.4% 的補數。最終產品就是我們在此所說的可信度加權率水準指示，即加上 1.3%。這就是定價理論的結論。如您所見，它很複雜，包含許多變數和考慮因素，因此很容易出錯。這確實非常難以成功做到。

We have been at this for decades, and combined with the availability, quality, scope and size of our data it is really, really hard to replicate this at our scale and to be as accurate and precise as possible when we apply this theory in practice, we have many additional considerations, which Jen Kubit will discuss in the next section. Jen?

我們已經在這個領域耕耘了幾十年，考慮到我們資料的可用性、品質、範圍和規模，在我們的規模上複製這一理論真的非常困難，而且為了在實踐中應用這一理論時盡可能做到準確和精確，我們還有很多其他考慮，Jen Kubit 將在下一節中討論。珍？

Thank you, Brad, for explaining the theory behind the calculations to the two fundamental pricing questions. If we don't do anything to current rates, what loss plus LAE ratio should we expect in the upcoming rate revision for the policies we are about to write. And what do we need to do to current rates in order to hit our combined ratio target in the upcoming rate revision for policies we are about to write.

謝謝你，布拉德，解釋了兩個基本定價問題計算背後的理論。如果我們不對目前利率採取任何措施，那麼在即將修訂的利率中，我們即將簽訂的保單的損失加 LAE 比率應該是多少。我們需要對目前利率做些什麼才能在即將制定的政策利率修訂中達到我們的綜合比率目標。

So now let's discuss how we answer these questions at Progressive and how the answers influence customers' rates and future profitability. This ratemaking process at Progressive slide was last shown in the 2021 fourth quarter investor relations call with John Curtis and Kanik Varma. This process is utilized in all our lines of business at Progressive.

現在讓我們討論一下 Progressive 如何回答這些問題，以及答案如何影響客戶的費率和未來的獲利能力。Progressive 幻燈片中的這一利率制定過程最後一次展示是在 2021 年第四季度投資者關係電話會議上，John Curtis 和 Kanik Varma 出席了此次電話會議。此流程已應用於 Progressive 的所有業務線。

The product R&D, pricing and product management teams collaborate to determine the rate need to support our operational goals, grow as fast as you can at or below a 96 combined ratio. Additional teams joined these three to deploy the final rate changes to the marketplace. Once deployed, a consumer's quoted premium reflects the revised rates.

產品研發、定價和產品管理團隊協作確定支援我們營運目標所需的利率，以在 96 或以下的綜合比率下盡可能快速成長。其他團隊也加入這三個團隊，將最終的利率變化部署到市場上。一旦部署，消費者的報價保費將反映修改後的費率。

Let's focus in on the three teams that collaborate to determine our rate need. There are two broad areas of rate need, segment level and aggregate rate. In this presentation, Brad went in depth into the best actuarial science we use in pricing to evaluate the aggregate rate need in the future revision to hit the target our budgetary loss and LAE ratio.

讓我們專注於合作確定我們的費率需求的三個團隊。費率需求大致分為兩大類：細分等級和整體費率。在本次演講中，布拉德深入探討了我們在定價中使用的最佳精算科學，以評估未來修訂中所需的總利率，以達到我們的預算損失和 LAE 比率目標。

Product R&D calculates the segment rate need for the relative rate need across variables used in the product design and product managers leverage these aggregate and segment level rate needs, along with their knowledge of the local market dynamics to set the pricing strategy for their respective states. They decide if the segmentation aggregate rate level or both need to be revised.

產品研發部門計算產品設計中使用的變數的相對費率需求的分段費率需求，產品經理利用這些總體和分段級別的費率需求，以及他們對當地市場動態的了解來製定各自州的定價策略。他們決定是否需要修改細分匯總率水準或兩者。

A product manager strategy ensures that we seek to not only hit rate revision targets, but also our calendar year goal to grow as fast as we can at or below a 96 combined ratio. At Progressive, we believe that our ratemaking process is effective because of the knowledge at the local level combined with the advanced and accurate view of segment level and aggregate rate need. And we strive to maximize its effectiveness by analyzing the rate need often and bringing revised rates to market quickly.

產品經理策略確保我們不僅能夠達到利率修訂目標，而且還能實現我們的日曆年目標，即在 96 或以下的綜合比率下盡可能快地增長。在 Progressive，我們相信我們的費率制定流程是有效的，因為我們結合了本地層面的知識以及對細分層面和整體費率需求的先進而準確的認識。我們致力於透過經常分析利率需求並迅速將修訂後的利率推向市場來最大限度地提高其有效性。

In personal auto pricing, we frequently evaluate the expected loss and LAE ratio in the future revision. We complete rate level indication analyses on 51 states with each agency and direct distribution channel done individually. Also, there are 12 to 15 coverages analyzed separately.

在個人汽車定價中，我們經常評估未來修訂中的預期損失和 LAE 比率。我們對 51 個州的每個代理商和直接分銷管道分別進行了費率等級指示分析。此外，還有 12 至 15 個覆蓋範圍被單獨分析。

For example, the bodily injury liability and comprehensive physical damage coverages each have their own indicated aggregate rate need because the data patterns are different, such as frequency and severity trends. These analyses are completed 3 times or 4 times per year and discuss with the product manager of the specific state and channel along with their team.

例如，人身傷害責任險和綜合物理損害險各自都有各自的指示總費率需求，因為資料模式不同，例如頻率和嚴重程度趨勢。這些分析每年完成 3 到 4 次，並與特定州和通路的產品經理及其團隊進行討論。

The numbers on this slide show that we're calculating the fundamental pricing equation roughly 4,000 times in a year. And each of those includes all the complex actuarial methodologies, analyses and selections that Brad discussed. So that's 4,000 times our pricing teams are analyzing how losses will develop to ultimate costs. And 4,000 times we're discussing with product managers how losses will trend into the future rate revision period.

這張投影片上的數字表明，我們每年計算基本定價方程式大約 4,000 次。其中每一個都包括布拉德討論的所有複雜的精算方法、分析和選擇。因此，我們的定價團隊要分析損失如何發展到最終成本 4,000 次。我們與產品經理討論了 4,000 次，關於未來利率修訂期間損失將如何變化。

In commercial auto pricing, our data set is smaller. However, we're still analyzing the aggregate rate need quarterly and discussing with the product management teams. We aggregate most states together to improve the credibility of our progressive data. The largest four states are analyzed individually. Rate revision and calendar year combined ratio results for smaller states are monitored.

在商用汽車定價方面，我們的數據集較小。不過，我們仍在每季分析整體利率需求，並與產品管理團隊進行討論。我們將大多數州匯總在一起，以提高我們進步數據的可信度。分別對最大的四個州進行分析。監控較小州的費率修訂和歷年綜合比率結果。

Rates are revised at the state level because of insurance regulation. And for rate revisions, we complete a rate level indication that uses state-specific data. We evaluate our aggregate rate needs separately for our five business market targets. Differences by BMT and how losses present and how they develop and frequency and severity trends over time, affect the estimated loss ratio in the future revision.

由於保險監理規定，費率在州一級進行修訂。對於利率修訂，我們利用特定於州的數據完成利率水準指示。我們針對五個業務市場目標分別評估整體利率需求。BMT 的差異以及損失的呈現方式、發展方式以及頻率和嚴重程度隨時間的變化趨勢會影響未來修訂中的估計損失率。

And finally, there are nine coverages analyzed separately in commercial auto rate level indications. Overall, we're analyzing and discussing at least 900 fundamental pricing equations in a year. The regular cadence of these complex analyses in both personal lines and commercial lines auto is so important in understanding the aggregate rate need and being responsive to changes in the data.

最後，商業汽車費率水準指示中對九項保險範圍進行了單獨分析。整體而言，我們一年內至少要分析和討論 900 個基本定價方程式。個人險和商業險中這些複雜分析的規律性節奏對於理解整體費率需求和回應資料變化非常重要。

But it's not enough to analyze the rate need often to truly respond to the changing data, we need to deploy rate changes to the market quickly. This chart shows the number of rate revisions that are deployed each year over the past five years in our Personal Lines Auto and Commercial Lines auto products. We deploy many rate changes to market to adjust either the segment level, our aggregate rates are both. And we have the capabilities at Progressive to increase the number of revisions deployed.

但僅僅分析利率是不夠的，需要經常真正響應變化的數據，我們需要迅速將利率變化部署到市場。此圖表顯示了過去五年中我們個人險和商業險汽車產品中每年實施的費率修訂次數。我們向市場部署了許多費率變化來調整細分水平，我們的總體費率兩者兼而有之。而且，Progressive 有能力增加部署的修訂數量。

For example, in 2023, both the personal lines and commercial lines auto rate revision teams responded quickly and often to increasing loss costs and loss development in our underlying data. These rate revision capabilities are very important to our success at Progressive. Moving quickly is important because of the time needed for some states regulatory approval of rate changes and because of the premium earnings cadence.

例如，2023 年，個人險和商業險自動費率修訂團隊均對我們基礎資料中不斷增加的損失成本和損失發展做出了快速且頻繁的反應。這些利率修改能力對於 Progressive 的成功至關重要。迅速採取行動非常重要，因為一些州的監管部門需要時間來批准費率變化，而且保費收入節奏也比較快。

A policy written today at the new rate level will have earned premium in each month that it's in force or for the next 6 or 12 months depending on the policy term. So it takes many months for the earned premium and the denominator of our calendar year combined ratio to fully reflect the new rate level.

今天按照新的費率等級簽訂的保單將在其生效的每個月或接下來的 6 個月或 12 個月（取決於保單期限）內獲得保費。因此，已賺保費和我們日曆年綜合比率的分母需要花費數月的時間才能完全反映新的費率水準。

We are confident in our pricing teams aggregate rate level recommendations using our robust data sets, and we have an efficient process to deploy rate changes to the insurance market. However, there are times we must respond to changes and intervene in our fundamental pricing equation because historical data may not be informative.

我們相信，我們的定價團隊會利用我們強大的數據集來匯總費率水平建議，並且我們有一個高效的流程來將費率變化部署到保險市場。然而，有時我們必須對變化做出反應並幹預我們的基本定價方程，因為歷史數據可能無法提供資訊。

Recall that car accidents are not corn flakes. We are selling a promise to pay for claims in the future policy term. For example, changes in tariffs on imports may impact the payments on claims or loss payments in the future. Our role in the pricing teams is to answer the two fundamental pricing questions for the policies we are about to write in the upcoming rate revision.

回想一下，車禍不是玉米片。我們正在出售一份在未來保單期限內支付索賠的承諾。例如，進口關稅的變化可能會影響未來的索賠或損失賠償。我們定價團隊的職責是回答我們即將在即將到來的費率修訂中製定的政策的兩個基本定價問題。

But we have no previous loss payment experience with the changes to tariffs. Consistent with the Casualty Actuarial Society's statement of principles on ratemaking, we answer these two questions with an actuarially sound estimate of the expected value of all future costs, including changes in tariffs. Calculating the expected value of the future loss payments from changes to tariffs is not straightforward because auto claims are not all the same.

但我們之前沒有因關稅變動而支付損失的經驗。根據傷亡精算協會關於費率制定的原則聲明，我們透過對所有未來成本（包括關稅變化）的預期價值進行精算估計來回答這兩個問題。計算關稅變更造成的未來損失支付的預期值並不簡單，因為汽車索賠並非全都一樣。

Broadly speaking, we split the loss payments into claims for damaged vehicles versus injuries. And these two categories can be further split into similar types of costs. Starting with damaged vehicles. If it is repairable, the loss payment includes the cost of labor and parts and materials. If the repair is more costly than the value of the vehicle less anticipated salvage recoveries, then it is declared a total loss, and the claimant has paid the value.

廣義上講，我們將損失賠償分為車輛損壞索賠和人身傷害索賠。這兩類成本又可再細分為類似的成本類型。從受損車輛開始。如果可以修復，損失賠償包括人工和零件及材料的費用。如果修理費用高於車輛本身價值減去預期殘值，則該車輛將被宣佈為全損，索賠人將支付該價值。

The expected value of the future loss payments from changes to tariffs is calculated at this more granular level of data. For example, the labor parts and materials, the value of a vehicle and salvage recoveries. This is because the cost in this granular level of data are more similar. Also, we consider the insurance coverage to the calculation of the expected value of the future loss payments from changes to tariffs collision and comprehensive coverage for our customers' damaged vehicle usually has a deductible for the first $500 or $1,000, but the maximum payment is unlimited.

關稅變化造成的未來損失支付的預期值是在這個更精細的數據層面上計算的。例如，勞動力、零件和材料、車輛的價值和殘值回收。這是因為在這個粒度等級的資料中成本更加相似。此外，我們也會考慮保險範圍，以計算因關稅變化而產生的未來損失支付的預期值。對於我們客戶受損車輛的碰撞和綜合保險，通常前 500 美元或 1,000 美元可扣除，但最高支付額不受限制。

Compare this to property damage liability coverage for a claimant's damaged vehicle, it has a limit to the maximum payment. For example, $25,000 on the personal lines auto policy. For injuries to claimants or our customers, the loss payment includes the cost of medical treatment. The loss payment may also include general damages, such as pain and suffering.

將此與索賠人受損車輛的財產損失責任保險進行比較，其最高賠償金額是有限制的。例如，個人汽車保險金額為 25,000 美元。對於索賠人或我們的客戶受傷，損失賠償包括醫療費用。損失賠償還可能包括一般損害賠償，例如痛苦和折磨。

Again, we analyze how the changes to tariffs may affect these two different types of costs included in injury loss payments, and we consider the insurance coverage. Insurance coverage for injuries usually has a limit to the maximum payment per claim. For example, $50,000 for injured person and $100,000 for all injured claimants on a personal lines auto policies bodily injury liability coverage.

再次，我們分析了關稅變化如何影響傷害損失賠償中包含的兩種不同類型的成本，並考慮了保險範圍。傷害保險通常對每次索賠的最高賠償金額設有限制。例如，個人汽車保險人身傷害責任險中，受傷者賠償 5 萬美元，所有受傷索賠人賠償 10 萬美元。

A commercial auto policy often carries significantly higher bodily injury and property damage liability coverage. For example, $1 million combined single limit. But the pricing team is not working alone. We believe our analyses are improved by collaborating across functions at Progressive. We leverage subject matter expertise to calculate the expected value of the future loss payments from changes to tariffs.

商業汽車保險通常具有更高的人身傷害和財產損失責任保險。例如，100萬美元的合併單筆限額。但定價團隊並不是單獨工作的。我們相信，透過 Progressive 各職能部門的協作，我們的分析將會得到改善。我們利用專業知識來計算關稅變化造成的未來損失支付的預期價值。

The economics team within Progressive's capital management function provides interpretation on the federal government's actions and timing for implementation. They also share insights and external economic indices related to tariffs and imports.

進步資本管理部門內的經濟團隊對聯邦政府的行動和實施時間提供解釋。他們也分享與關稅和進口相關的見解和外部經濟指數。

Members of the claims functions, process and control teams provide subject matter expertise on the categories of loss payments described in the previous slide to evaluate if they are impacted by tariffs. They provide the necessary granular data. The pricing team aggregates this information from the economics and claims teams to calculate the expected value of future loss payments, including changes to tariffs.

索賠職能、流程和控制團隊的成員提供上一張投影片中所述的損失賠償類別的專業知識，以評估它們是否受到關稅的影響。它們提供必要的詳細數據。定價團隊匯總來自經濟和索賠團隊的信息，以計算未來損失支付的預期值，包括關稅變化。

We then incorporate this expected value of loss payments within the fundamental pricing equation to calculate the expected loss and LAE ratio in the upcoming revision for the policies we will write. Progressive has multiple pricing teams within the personal lines and commercial lines functions. Personal Lines is also split by auto, home and special lines. In addition to collaborating with economics and claims, we also collaborate among the pricing groups to share and debate methodologies and assumptions.

然後，我們將損失支付的預期值納入基本定價方程，以計算我們將要製定的政策在即將進行的修訂中的預期損失和 LAE 比率。Progressive 在個人險和商業險職能部門擁有多個定價團隊。個人線路也分為汽車線路、家庭線路和特殊線路。除了與經濟學和索賠部門合作之外，我們還與定價小組合作，分享和討論方法和假設。

Despite all the best actuarial methods for evaluating the aggregate rate need, communicating with product managers and deploying quickly to market, predicting the future is impossible. So our initial expected value of future loss payments, including changes in tariffs will be wrong. The fundamental pricing equation requires us to estimate future loss payments and other costs.

儘管有各種最佳的精算方法來評估整體利率需求、與產品經理溝通並快速部署到市場，但預測未來是不可能的。因此，我們對未來損失支付的初始預期值（包括關稅變化）將是錯誤的。基本定價方程式要求我們估計未來的損失支付和其他成本。

All our future predictions are wrong to some degree, and the probability of being wrong increases with changes that have minimal historic precedents such as inflationary impacts when an economy emerges from a pandemic or the frequently changing impacts of tariffs.

我們對未來的所有預測在某種程度上都是錯誤的，而且，隨著歷史先例很少的變化（例如經濟擺脫疫情時的通膨影響或關稅頻繁變化的影響），預測錯誤的可能性就會增加。

Pricing, claims and economics teams are working together to monitor the actual change in loss payments from implemented changes to tariffs. The scale and quality of our data at Progressive allows us to quickly identify the change in the actual loss payments and compare it to our expected value. This leads to refining our calculations.

定價、索賠和經濟團隊正在共同監測實施關稅變化後損失賠償的實際變化。Progressive 的資料規模和品質使我們能夠快速識別實際損失支付的變化並將其與我們的預期值進行比較。這促使我們改進計算。

Our robust data set at Progressive and the expertise of multiple teams contributes to our speed through this iterative cycle of estimate, monitor and refine. We are moving quickly to the center of the Bull's eye from Brad's slides where our expected value of future loss payments from changes in tariffs are accurate and precise.

Progressive 的強大資料集和多個團隊的專業知識幫助我們快速完成估算、監控和改進的迭代循環。我們正在迅速轉向布拉德幻燈片中的焦點，其中，我們對關稅變化造成的未來損失支付的預期值是準確而精確的。

Producing the rate-level indications often provides the updated aggregate rate level advice to product managers so they can recognize the differences in the refined expected value of the future loss payments. We have the capability to deploy necessary rate changes quickly. The speed of estimating, monitoring and refining our rate level indications and deploying the right rate change is important to deliver on our profit targets. And we want to write more business when we have accurate rates relative to the expected costs.

產生利率水準指示通常會向產品經理提供更新的整體利率水準建議，以便他們能夠認識到未來損失支付的細化預期值的差異。我們有能力快速部署必要的費率變更。評估、監控和改進我們的利率水準指示以及部署正確的利率變化的速度對於實現我們的利潤目標非常重要。當我們獲得相對於預期成本的準確費率時，我們希望開展更多業務。

Changes in tariffs are not our first intervention to the fundamental pricing equation. Our combined ratio results show that we have moved quicker than the industry to recognize increasing costs, raise rates and deliver on our operational goal of at or below a 96 combined ratio.

改變關稅並不是我們對基本定價方程式的首次幹預。我們的綜合比率結果顯示，我們比行業更快地認識到成本增加、提高費率並實現綜合比率達到或低於 96 的營運目標。

In Personal Auto, the standard deviation of our annual combined ratios in this 11 years from 2014 through 2024 is half of the average standard deviation from the other top 10 carriers. So we are responding quicker and making smart interventions.

在個人汽車保險方面，我們從 2014 年到 2024 年這 11 年的年度綜合成本率的標準差是其他十大保險公司平均標準差的一半。因此，我們能夠更快地做出反應並做出明智的干預。

Pricing's collaboration with subject mentor experts and other progressive functions along with the infrastructure to analyze rate need often and deploy rate changes quickly, has proven effective in responsiveness and stability of our combined ratio and is a major contributor to our outperformance of the industry.

定價與學科導師專家和其他先進功能的合作，以及經常分析利率需求和快速部署利率變化的基礎設施，已被證明對我們的綜合比率的響應能力和穩定性有效，並且是我們超越行業的主要貢獻者。

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions, including presenters, Brad Granger and Jen Kubit, who are available to answer questions about the presentation. (Event Instructions)

今天活動的先前錄製部分到此結束。現在，我們的管理團隊成員可以現場回答問題，包括演講者 Brad Granger 和 Jen Kubit，他們可以回答有關演示的問題。（活動須知）

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just first question on quote volume growth. I was just looking at quote volume growth, and it looks like direct quote volume increases have really taken off, all agency quote volume has not seen exactly the same acceleration.

嘿，謝謝。早安.第一個問題是關於報價量成長。我只是在觀察報價量的成長，看起來直接報價量的成長確實已經開始，所有代理商報價量並沒有出現完全相同的加速。

So I'm curious if the actions you're taking in the property book are limiting agency quote volume? And would you expect to see a tailwind in agency quote volume as you wind down those actions in the property book?

所以我很好奇，您在房地產書中採取的行動是否限制了代理商報價？當您在房地產帳簿中逐步減少這些行動時，您是否預期仲介報價量會出現順風？

Yes. Thanks, Rob. One, our direct volume reflects our increase in advertisement. But also when you're thinking about property quote, yes, there was a difference in agency. So you're going through an agency, you have one offering with Progressive and that's Progressive Home. When you go through direct, we have many unaffiliated partners so we can write with them.

是的。謝謝，羅布。首先，我們的直接交易量反映了我們廣告業務的成長。但是當您考慮房地產報價時，是的，代理商存在差異。因此，您正在透過一家代理商，為 Progressive 提供一項服務，那就是 Progressive Home。當您透過直接方式時，我們有許多非關聯合作夥伴，因此我們可以與他們合作。

So if it doesn't fit our appetite need, it can fit an appetite need of one of our unaffiliated partners. So we feel like with where -- what we've done in the past couple of years, there will be some nice tailwinds in both the agency and direct channel because we're in such a better position in our property book as far as less volatile areas and clearly, our combined ratio.

因此，如果它不能滿足我們的胃口，它可以滿足我們某個非關聯合作夥伴的胃口。因此，我們覺得，憑藉過去幾年的所作所為，代理商管道和直銷管道都會迎來一些良好的順風，因為就波動較小的領域以及綜合比率而言，我們在房地產帳簿上處於更有利的地位。

Thank you, that's helpful. And then I just wanted to follow up on Florida. Can you help us think through the potential size of the Florida refund related to the excess profitability? And how are you thinking about pricing moving forward in Florida given where the profits are.

謝謝，這很有幫助。然後我只是想跟進佛羅裡達州的情況。您能否幫助我們思考與超額獲利能力相關的佛羅裡達州退稅的潛在規模？考慮到利潤，您如何考慮佛羅裡達州未來的定價？

I'll take the last part of the question first. So we've reduced rates in Florida twice in the last year, 8% in December, another 6% in June. We care deeply about Florida. We're the number 1 writer and when the insurance reform passed in 2023, House Bill 837 we were really hopeful that it would reduce loss cost, and it has done just that.

我先回答問題的最後一部分。因此，去年我們兩次降低了佛羅裡達州的利率，12 月降低了 8%，6 月又降低了 6%。我們非常關心佛羅裡達州。我們是第一作者，當 2023 年保險改革法案（眾議院第 837 號法案）通過時，我們真的希望它能夠降低損失成本，而它確實做到了這一點。

So I do want to take -- I don't know that I have said this before, but these reforms and our hope is that they continue have really made a difference for Floridians. And hats off to commissioner Shiwarski and Governor DeSantis for writing that and sticking to it because it really has been incredible.

所以我確實想說——我不知道我以前是否說過這個，但這些改革以及我們希望它們繼續下去確實為佛羅裡達人民帶來了改變。我們向 Shiwarski 委員和 DeSantis 州長致敬，他們寫下了這一決定並堅持執行，因為這確實令人難以置信。

Florida does have an excess profits statute that is a rolling three-year basis. So think of '23, '24 and '25. So without having half of '25, I couldn't give you a guesstimate with any accuracy, especially as we head into hurricane season. But if our profits from those periods exceed the statutory limit, we will absolutely be able to comply with the provisions and give that money back to policyholders at that time. So we're watching that closely. We have an internal estimate, but it could change dramatically given hurricane season.

佛羅裡達州確實有一項為期三年的超額利潤法規。所以想想 23、24 和 25。因此，由於沒有 25 年的一半數據，我無法給你準確的估計，特別是在我們進入颶風季節的時候。但如果我們在該期間的利潤超過了法定限額，我們絕對能夠遵守規定，並將這筆錢退還給當時的保單持有人。因此我們正在密切關注。我們有一個內部估計，但考慮到颶風季節，它可能會發生巨大變化。

Bob Jian Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Jian Huang。

Hi, good morning. Looking at your 10-Q, you talked about policy life expectancy for personal auto declined 5% due in part to business mix shift. Is this the same business mix you talked about in the other parts of the 10-Q where you're shifting towards the Robinsons and the Wrights? Intuitively, I thought those should have higher policy life expectancy. Can you help us think about that?

嗨，早安。查看您的 10-Q，您談到個人汽車保單預期壽命下降了 5%，部分原因是業務組合轉變。這是否與您在 10-Q 其他部分談到的向 Robinsons 和 Wrights 轉變的業務組合相同？直覺上，我認為這些應該具有更高的保單壽命。你能幫我們思考一下嗎？

Yes. The mix shift has changed dramatically because of what happened with inflation in 2023. And so we closed down our underwriting appetite and brought in a lot more preferred business mix. Since we've opened up, as you can see, especially in the -- actually both channels, we have -- already a lot more sound, which is lower PLE. We expect that, we know that we have a history of that as long as we make our profit target margins on those Sams, it is great.

是的。由於 2023 年通貨膨脹的情況，組合轉變發生了巨大變化。因此，我們減少了承保需求，並引入了更多優先業務組合。自從我們開放以來，如您所見，特別是在 — — 實際上是兩個頻道，我們已經有了更多的聲音，也就是更低的 PLE。我們期望這一點，我們知道我們有這樣的歷史，只要我們在這些 Sam 上實現我們的利潤目標利潤率，那就太好了。

So a couple of different things on auto PLE that I would talk about. This is probably a little bit redundant from last quarter, but there's a lot of shopping going on. So in a hard market, that's going to happen. Is that necessarily bad No, because if the price isn't right in our book and people shopping can get a lower price. We believe, as you just heard from both Brad and Jen that we price pretty darn accurately, and we have a rate revision machine. So it could be adverse selection. It could be going to someone who hasn't got the right price on the street.

因此，我想談談有關自動 PLE 的幾個不同的事情。這可能與上一季相比有些重複，但確實有許多購物活動正在進行中。所以在艱難的市場中，這種情況就會發生。這一定是壞事嗎？不是，因為如果我們的書中的價格不合適，購物者可以獲得更低的價格。我們相信，正如您剛才從布拉德和詹那裡聽到的那樣，我們的定價非常準確，而且我們擁有一台價格修訂機器。所以這可能是逆向選擇。它可能會被賣給街上某個沒有正確價格的人。

And secondly, the mix shift that you're seeing in the PLEs is with Sams. So it's compared to the base of the preferred business we've put on the books a few years ago. And then lastly, when people do shop, we talked about this last quarter. We will look at their policy, do a policy review, look at build plans and different things that could cause us to rewrite with us starting the clock ticking over.

其次，您在 PLE 中看到的混合變化是與 Sams 有關的。因此，這是與我們幾年前記錄下來的優先業務基礎相比的。最後，當人們購物時，我們在上個季度討論了這個問題。我們將研究他們的政策，進行政策審查，研究建設計劃以及可能導致我們重新制定計劃的不同事項，並開始重新制定計劃。

So although we keep that customer, you'll see the decline in PLE. I have reasons to believe that, that will start to turn around. But again, that we'll see as the data comes out. I would point you to, and we're not going to actually share this all the time, but we have an internal measure of household life expectancy, which gives a 30-day ability to rewrite and our household life expectancy is up.

因此，儘管我們保留了該客戶，但您會看到 PLE 的下降。我有理由相信，情況將會好轉。但同樣，我們將在數據公佈後再看。我想指出的是，我們實際上不會一直分享這一點，但我們有一個家庭預期壽命的內部衡量標準，它提供了 30 天的重寫能力，我們的家庭預期壽命已經提高。

So that's kind of my reason to believe that PLE could follow. Again, a lot of PLE has to do with mix, how long the hard market continues the shopping behavior of consumers, which could maybe dramatically change in this last two or three years based on all the inflationary measures. So a lot of data going into that, but hopefully, that gives you a little bit more color.

這就是我相信 PLE 能夠跟進的原因。再次強調，許多 PLE 與組合有關，即硬市場持續消費者購物行為的時間長短，根據所有通膨指標，這種行為可能在未來兩三年內發生巨大變化。因此，需要輸入大量數據，但希望這能為您提供更多的資訊。

Great, thank you. Second question is on tariffs. Again, this is something that I think the right way to think about it is it introduces uncertainty. But maybe on the personal auto side, if we remove the tariffs as a headwind, is it fair to say that you should be able to grow much more aggressively or reduce your pricing significantly. Is that essentially the only thing that kind of keeps you away from reducing pricing further?

太好了，謝謝。第二個問題是關於關稅的。再次強調，我認為正確的思考方式是它引入了不確定性。但也許在個人汽車方面，如果我們取消關稅這一阻力，是否可以公平地說，你應該能夠更積極地成長或大幅降低價格。這是否是阻止你們進一步降低價格的唯一因素？

Well, we wanted to be conservative because of the uncertainty around tariffs. Every day that passes, we get more certainty around that. Here's how we look at it. We look at every state, new and renewal, every product, look at the margin, look at our ability to grow, and we'll always try to grow as fast as we can at a 96. So we've -- were states where we need a little rate, we'll go up a little bit. We're states that we believe we can grow like a Florida will reduce rates.

嗯，由於關稅的不確定性，我們希望採取保守的態度。隨著時間一天天過去，我們對此越來越有信心。我們是這樣看待這個問題的。我們關注每一個狀態，新的和更新的，每一個產品，專注於利潤，關注我們的成長能力，我們將始終嘗試以 96 的速度盡可能快地成長。因此，對於需要稍微提高利率的州，我們會稍微提高利率。我們相信，我們各州能夠像佛羅裡達州一樣成長，並降低利率。

And we're back to where we want to be, and that's taking small bites of the apple on either end. And that allows us to keep rates stable and competitive for our customers, which we talk about as one of our key strategic pillars. So if we feel like we can grow and we have the margin, and we have more certainty, we'll absolutely do what whatever we need to grow and grow profitably.

我們又回到了想要的狀態，那就是在蘋果的兩端各咬一小口。這使我們能夠為客戶提供穩定且具競爭力的價格，這是我們的關鍵策略支柱之一。因此，如果我們覺得我們可以發展，我們有利潤空間，而且我們有更多的確定性，我們絕對會盡一切努力去發展和獲利。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Hi, thanks. My first question is just continuing on personal auto, right? I mean we see new business is up, PLE is down, which I think you addressed a little bit earlier. But as you think about going forward, how do you expect, I guess, policies in force growth to trends given -- these trends combined with the fact, right?

你好，謝謝。我的第一個問題是繼續使用個人汽車，對嗎？我的意思是，我們看到新業務正在上升，而 PLE 在下降，我想您之前已經提到過這一點。但是當您考慮未來時，我想您如何預期政策會按照既定趨勢增長——這些趨勢與事實相結合，對嗎？

You guys called out, right, you took around less than 1% rate decline in the quarter in personal auto, and you're still increasing ad spend. So I'm just trying to get a forward view on PIF growth with all these things to consider.

你們說得對，本季個人汽車銷量下降了不到 1%，但你們仍在增加廣告支出。因此，我只是想透過考慮所有這些因素來對 PIF 的成長有一個前瞻性的認識。

Yes. I mean it's hard to compare 2025, which has been incredible already to 2024, which was the best year in the history of Progressive. But the fact is we grew over 5 million PIFs year-over-year and $1 million in PL just in this quarter. So we believe there's an opportunity to continue to grow. We believe we're in a really great position. And I think where we feel like we're in even a better position is to now grow that Robinson book.

是的。我的意思是，很難將已經令人難以置信地取得的 2025 年與 Progressive 歷史上最好的一年 2024 年進行比較。但事實是，我們比去年同期成長了超過 500 萬份 PIF，光是本季的 PL 就成長了 100 萬美元。因此我們相信還有機會繼續成長。我們相信我們處於非常有利的地位。我認為我們現在處於更有利的位置，那就是擴大羅賓遜的書的影響力。

So we feel like we're in a different position in our property and have a lot of plans to continue to work out the blueprint and ultimately open up a bit. And because we have all those auto policies, we have those future Robinsons or Robinsons that have an auto and home but not home with us.

因此，我們感覺我們在財產方面處於不同的位置，並且有很多計劃可以繼續制定藍圖並最終開放一點。因為我們有所有這些汽車保險，所以我們就有了未來的“羅賓遜”，或者說有汽車和房子但房子不在我們身邊的“羅賓遜”。

So I think the opportunity really lends itself to grow more preferred. We have -- I think we have a lot of opportunity in that area, and that will be our focus. Again, we'll be strategic. We're not going to swing the pendulum the other way. We've certainly learned a lot about the property book and the volatility across the country in the last 5 to 10 years. But we're really well positioned.

因此我認為這個機會確實會變得更加受歡迎。我認為我們在該領域有很多機會，這將是我們的重點。再次強調，我們將採取策略性措施。我們不會改變主意。在過去 5 到 10 年間，我們確實對房地產帳簿和全國範圍內的波動性有了深入的了解。但我們確實處於有利地位。

And the fact that we have all that auto business on the book, I think, is really important. There's a lot of market share for us to capture. So I remain bullish -- comparisons are more difficult when you're comparing to the best year in the history of Progressive.

我認為，事實上，我們將所有的汽車業務都納入其中，這一點非常重要。我們需要佔領很大的市場佔有率。因此我仍然保持樂觀——當你與 Progressive 歷史上最好的一年進行比較時，比較會更加困難。

Thanks. And then my second question, Tricia, in your letter, you mentioned there were some comments on capital and just obviously holding capital as a detriment to your return. If you could just expand on that? And I guess if you guys are thinking about incremental capital return, I know there's a balance with using capital for growth.

謝謝。然後是我的第二個問題，特里西婭，在你的信中，你提到了一些關於資本的評論，顯然持有資本會損害你的回報。能詳細闡述嗎？我想，如果你們正在考慮增量資本回報，我知道在使用資本實現成長之間需要取得平衡。

Is that a reference just to you guys normally have a special dividend later on in the year? Or would you consider incremental repurchases? I'm just hoping to flesh out that comment a little bit.

這是指你們通常在今年稍後派發特別股息嗎？或者你會考慮增量回購嗎？我只是希望稍微充實一下這個評論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. We'll continue -- we needed a lot of capital and have needed a lot of capital to grow. So we have our regulatory base and then our contingency layer and extreme contingency. So we continue to model that out. And then we have three ways to return capital. The first -- and our preferred way is to grow the business. So we've been doing that, and we'll continue to do that.

是的。我們將繼續——我們需要大量資本，並且一直需要大量資本來發展。因此，我們有監管基礎，然後有應急層和極端應急。因此我們繼續對此進行建模。然後我們有三種方式來返還資本。第一種也是我們首選的方式是發展業務。所以我們一直在這樣做，我們會繼續這樣做。

And then we buy back shares of stock to reduce the dilution from our stock-based compensation, and we've done that. We will buy more stock back if it's under our intrinsic value. So we look at that model constantly. And then yes, usually, typically in the summer is when the Board of Directors name, if we have one, a variable dividend.

然後我們回購股票以減少股票薪酬的稀釋，我們已經這樣做了。如果價格低於我們的內在價值，我們就會回購更多股票。所以我們不斷地觀察這個模型。是的，通常，通常是在夏天，董事會會指定一個浮動股息（如果有的話）。

And so we've started modeling out that now when I say we, John Bauer, John Sauerland and I start, thinking about how to present that to the Board. Ultimately, it will be their decision. And again, we have a lot of year left with storm seasons coming up, but that would be another opportunity should the Board decide to give capital back in the form of a variable dividend.

因此，我們現在開始對此進行建模，當我說我們時，約翰·鮑爾、約翰·索爾蘭和我開始思考如何向董事會呈現這一點。最終，這將是他們的決定。而且，隨著風暴季節的到來，我們還有很多年的時間，但如果董事會決定以浮動股息的形式返還資本，這將是另一個機會。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. Following up on -- a lot of talk around PLE and taking out a lot of Sams. I'm just wondering if you did nothing particular to improve the PLE of the company, but just let the excess Sams who came on board bake off on their own regular time line. Would retention just improve naturally at the company by the passage of time? And if so, when might we see that inflection take place given all the business you added in 2024?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。繼續跟進——圍繞 PLE 進行大量討論並取出大量 Sam。我只是想知道您是否沒有採取任何特別措施來改善公司的 PLE，而只是讓加入的多餘 Sam 按照自己的常規時間表離開。隨著時間的推移，公司的保留率會自然提高嗎？如果是這樣，考慮到您在 2024 年增加的所有業務，我們什麼時候可以看到這種轉變發生？

I hope I understood your question. I mean I do want to say -- so Sams have always had a lower PLE and we actually further segment different Sams and I won't go into all the details. If Sams ran off because they were shopping and leaving, yes, our retention would go up.

我希望我理解了你的問題。我的意思是我確實想說——Sams 的 PLE 一直較低，我們實際上進一步細分了不同的 Sam，我不會講所有細節。如果山姆顧客因為購物後離開而流失，是的，我們的保留率就會上升。

But again, we like to have as many -- our Sams are sort of are upbringing. So we love having Sams on the book as long as we make our calendar year and our lifetime profit targets on that. Did I understand your question, Josh?

但同樣，我們希望擁有盡可能多的——我們的 Sam 有點像是成長的。因此，只要我們能夠實現年度和終生利潤目標，我們很高興有 Sams 加入我們。我理解你的問題了嗎，喬希？

Yes, I'm just wondering, in 2024, maybe you capture a greater percentage of the Sams market that you normally would and your -- and the mix of business is one was more SAM directed. So as such, our retention is down.

是的，我只是想知道，到 2024 年，也許你會佔據 Sams 市場的更大份額，而且你的業務組合更多地受到 SAM 的主導。因此，我們的保留率下降了。

But if you fast forward to your normal mix of Sams and Dianes and Robinson, that means that, I guess, PLE would just go naturally up because you're new customer acquisition wasn't decidedly Sams oriented. Is that a correct way to think about that?

但如果你快速回顧 Sams、Dianes 和 Robinson 的正常組合，我想這意味著 PLE 會自然上升，因為你的新客戶獲取並不是明確以 Sams 為導向的。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes, that's a good way of thinking. But I think a lot could happen I talked a little bit, I think, during Lee's question, I believe, or Bob's about us wanting to grow Robinson. So it depends on other segments we bring on. It depends on competitors' rates and what our customers do.

是的，這是一個很好的想法。但我認為可能會發生很多事情，我想，在李的問題期間，或者鮑勃關於我們想要發展羅賓遜的問題時，我談了一點。所以這取決於我們引入的其他部分。這取決於競爭對手的費率以及我們的客戶的行為。

And again, there is some noise, I think, in our data for sure, and I believe others with people shopping but shopping with their current company because they don't necessarily want to leave and even though that starts the time clock over, that customer didn't leave, we just did a policy review. So there's a little bit of noise in there. But I think the way -- if all things were stable, the way you're saying that would play out, I just don't think all things to be stable.

而且，我認為我們的數據中肯定存在一些噪音，我相信其他人也會購物，但他們之所以選擇在目前的公司購物，是因為他們不一定想離開，即使時間從頭開始計算，但那個顧客並沒有離開，我們只是做了政策審查。所以裡面有一點噪音。但我認為——如果所有的事情都是穩定的，那麼你所說的情況就會發生，我只是不認為所有的事情都是穩定的。

And then, look, obviously, you're fantastically profitable right now. You're also spending a lot on ads. If those ads are procuring a lot of Sams, is the ad spend for low duration or low policy expecting customers justified? Or are you expecting that you will only have those policies for 6 months or 12 months and it's working out exactly as planned?

然後，你看，顯然你現在的利潤非常豐厚。您在廣告上也花了很多錢。如果這些廣告吸引了大量的 Sam，那麼針對短時間或低政策預期客戶的廣告支出是否合理？或者您預計這些政策只會持續 6 個月或 12 個月，並且一切都按照計劃進行？

Yes. We look at -- we won't try to bring on any customer in any of our segments on the book if we don't believe it to be to reach our target profit margins. As long as our cost for sales under attack, which is we'll continue to spend and grow in every segment that we can because, again, some of those Sams are going to be future Robinsons at some point, they'll turn into Dianes and they'll get a renter's policy, as you know, we're growing a lot in renters policy.

是的。我們認為－如果我們認為無法達到目標利潤率，我們就不會嘗試吸引任何細分市場的客戶。只要我們的銷售成本受到攻擊，我們就會繼續在每個領域投入和成長，因為其中一些 Sam 將來會在某個時候成為 Robinson，他們會變成 Dianes，他們會得到租房政策，如你所知，我們在租房政策方面增長了很多。

They'll eventually buy a home and the likelihood of them sticking with Progressive for a home as high. So again, we want to bring everybody in, but we look at that totally from targeted acquisition cost of each segment.

他們最終會買房，而且他們繼續透過 Progressive 買房的可能性很高。所以，我們再次希望吸引所有人，但我們完全從每個細分市場的目標收購成本來考慮這一點。

I'd love to hear more about Sams turning into Robinsons in the future. So we'll stay tuned. Thank you.

我很想聽到更多關於 Sams 未來變成 Robinsons 的消息。我們會繼續關注。謝謝。

I'll do that at some point, Josh. I did something called Imagine Diane. I want to say like in 2014 or aging myself, but we started thinking about that, and that's one of the reasons why we really started looking at the construct of the three horizons of different products that our customers need.

我會在某個時候這麼做的，喬希。我做了一件叫做「想像黛安」的事。我想說就像 2014 年或我自己變老一樣，但我們開始思考這個問題，這也是我們真正開始關注客戶需要的不同產品的三個層面的構造的原因之一。

John Sauerland, I remember, vividly did an IR presentation on we want people to come in if they say, do you have that product, do you have X product life insurance, jewelry insurance, we can say, yes, we have that.

我記得，約翰·索爾蘭 (John Sauerland) 生動地做了一次 IR 演示，我們希望人們進來時，如果他們問，你們有那個產品嗎，你們有 X 產品人壽保險、珠寶保險嗎，我們可以說，是的，我們有。

Maybe not all of it will be on our paper, but to be able to have that type of portfolio of products for every customer as their insurable need changes. And we could redo that because I'm sure some things change, we sort of would put them through like Diane is renter, then she gets engaged and she needs her ring insured and go on and on, and we can tell you the likelihood of the PLE with that. But I'll put that on the list of a deep dive topic for our future, for sure.

也許並非所有內容都會出現在我們的文件中，但隨著每位客戶的可保需求發生變化，我們能夠為他們提供此類產品組合。我們可以重新做這件事，因為我確信有些事情會發生變化，我們會把它們像黛安一樣安排好，先是租房，然後她訂婚了，她需要給她的戒指上保險，然後繼續下去，我們可以告訴你 PLE 的可能性。但我肯定會把它列入我們未來深入探討的話題清單中。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬希。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Hi, good morning, everyone. I guess I'd like to go back to the pricing theory portion of the presentation. And during the -- and I understand it was a theory discussion, but you used a factor of 12% for LAE. And I don't -- I'm going to pick that LAE number as just sort of if you can give us some perspective of how LAE has trended for your business the last couple of years.

大家好，早安。我想回到演講的定價理論部分。在 — — 我知道這是一次理論討論，但您使用了 12% 的 LAE 係數。我不會——我將選擇 LAE 數字，只是想問您是否能為我們介紹過去幾年 LAE 對您的業務的影響趨勢。

And I guess more importantly, I'm sure you're using some technology to improve those costs relative to earned premium. Can you talk about what kind of leverage you have for further improvement in LAE as we look out the next 24 to 36 months?

我想更重要的是，我相信您正在使用某種技術來改善相對於已賺取保費的成本。展望未來 24 至 36 個月，您能否談談您有哪些優勢可以進一步改善 LAE？

I'll start the answer. And then Brad, if you want to just talk about -- I think it was just used as a -- just as an example. But our LAE has reduced in the last 10 or 15 years consistently. As you saw this quarter, our NAER, which is our expense ratio outside of our acquisition costs went down by about 0.3%.

我先開始回答。然後布拉德，如果你想談論 - 我認為它只是用作 - 只是作為一個例子。但我們的 LAE 在過去 10 到 15 年間一直持續減少。正如您在本季看到的，我們的 NAER（即收購成本之外的費用率）下降了約 0.3%。

We will continue to push down costs across the board, not necessarily acquisition costs because we'll spend as much as we can to grow but my team and I consistently talk about technology changes, process changes, people changes, that we can do to continue to lower both our expense ratio actually across the board. That's really important to our customers to maintain those competitive prices.

我們將繼續全面降低成本，不一定是收購成本，因為我們將盡可能投入資金來實現成長，但我和我的團隊一直在談論技術變革、流程變革、人員變革，我們可以採取這些措施來繼續全面降低我們的費用率。對於我們的客戶來說，保持有競爭力的價格確實很重要。

So I've been very happy with our reduction across the board, not just in LAE, but in our expense ratio. Overall, NAER should say, in the last 10 years, and we'll continue to focus on that. And we believe we have a lot of opportunity, especially with technology. And I think the 12% Brad used was an example, but I'll let you elaborate on that, Brad.

因此，我對我們的全面削減感到非常高興，不僅是在 LAE，還包括我們的費用率。總體而言，NAER 應該說，在過去 10 年裡，我們將繼續關注這一點。我們相信我們有很多機會，特別是在技術方面。我認為布拉德使用的 12% 就是一個例子，但我會讓你詳細說明一下，布拉德。

Yes. Thanks, Tricia. Yes, the 12% was an example. It's actually considerably lower when you measure the cost of LAE in relation to premium. But to add to what Tricia said, we also are very careful to both look at his recent historic LAE performance but also to take a future forward-looking view of it to ensure that we are ahead of the curve for any changes, any efficiencies that the business creates.

是的。謝謝，特里西亞。是的，12% 就是一個例子。如果以保費來衡量 LAE 的成本，那麼這個數字實際上要低得多。但除了 Tricia 所說的之外，我們還要非常謹慎地審視他近期的歷史 LAE 表現，同時也要對其進行前瞻性的審視，以確保我們在業務創造的任何變化和任何效率方面都處於領先地位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. I guess the other question I had, just as I was listening to the presentation and your comments about the rate cuts in Florida brought up a concept, and I'm not sure it's valid, so I thought I'd ask you for your opinion.

好的。我想我還有另一個問題，就在我聽演講的時候，你對佛羅裡達州降息的評論提出了一個概念，我不確定它是否有效，所以我想問你的意見。

Normally, when you get to price increases because of inflation, other factors, that can be disruptive to your retention ratios and I'm curious if price decreases can also be disruptive to retention, triggering, shopping. I'm curious about your perspectives on that.

通常，當由於通貨膨脹或其他因素導致價格上漲時，可能會對你的保留率產生影響，我很好奇價格下降是否也會對保留、觸發和購物產生影響。我很好奇你對此的看法。

I think the shopping the last several years have been just so volatile because of changes because of the extraordinary inflation that happened in 2023 and actually before then. Typically, when you have a price decrease, it wouldn't necessarily increase shopping, although it has a lot -- there's a lot of external things too in terms of advertising and other things that happen.

我認為過去幾年的購物一直非常不穩定，因為 2023 年及之前發生的異常通貨膨脹帶來了變化。通常，當價格下降時，不一定會增加購物量，儘管有許多外部因素，如廣告和其他因素。

So I wouldn't necessarily say that I think there's a lot of different variables depending on also the speed of what's happened in the industry, which is what I think Jen talked about was just responding quickly to get accurate rates is what we want to do. We spur on -- with decreases, you're really typically adding on new business growth. And that's depending on if people are shopping their carrier or like I said, with ours, our people looking at a policy review to see if they can make changes in their policy to decrease their rates, if that makes sense.

因此，我不會說我認為有很多不同的變數取決於行業發生的變化的速度，我認為 Jen 所說的只是快速做出反應以獲得準確的費率是我們想要做的。我們刺激——透過減少，你實際上通常會增加新的業務成長。這取決於人們是否在選擇他們的運營商，或者像我說的，我們的人員會查看政策審查，看看他們是否可以改變他們的政策來降低費率，如果這有意義的話。

Jimmy Bhullar, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

Hey, good morning. So just first, I had a question on how you view the competitive environment to be in personal auto. And it seems like everybody's margins have improved. And in most cases, at the sort of upper end of their historical ranges.

嘿，早安。首先，我有一個問題，您如何看待個人汽車領域的競爭環境。似乎每個人的利潤率都有提高。在大多數情況下，都處於其歷史範圍的上限。

And more and more companies are talking about wanting to grow as opposed to improve margins. And just wondering if you've seen that in the competitive behavior overall and how that affects your view of margins and growth prospectively for Progressive.

越來越多的公司談論的是成長而不是提高利潤率。我只是想知道您是否在整體競爭行為中看到了這一點，以及這會如何影響您對 Progressive 未來利潤和成長的看法。

Yes. We definitely have seen the environment become more and more competitive. And we were thankful to get out ahead of the rates. And so we've been able to put on the amount of growth we put on in terms of policies in force. Like I said, comparisons will be difficult because you were comparing on incredible numbers in 2024.

是的。我們確實看到環境變得越來越有競爭力。我們很慶幸能夠領先於利率。因此，我們能夠根據現行政策實現成長。就像我說的，比較會很困難，因為你在比較 2024 年的驚人數字。

And frankly, incredible numbers, the first half of 2025. That said, that's our sweet spot. We love that. We love the competitiveness. It's great for consumers. It's great just making all of us better. So our goal will remain to grow as fast as we can and make our target profit margin. We are doing great on both right now. I think I started in my letter talking about that in net premium written as our trifecta, and we'll continue to do that. It's going to get more competitive. But again, that's what makes this business fun.

坦白說，2025 年上半年的數字令人難以置信。也就是說，這是我們的最佳點。我們喜歡這個。我們熱愛競爭。這對消費者來說非常好。讓我們所有人都變得更好真是太好了。因此，我們的目標仍然是盡可能快速地成長並實現目標利潤率。目前我們在這兩方面都做得很好。我想我在信中已經開始談論淨保費作為我們的三連勝了，我們將繼續這樣做。競爭將會更加激烈。但同樣，這正是這個行業有趣的地方。

Okay. And on an unrelated topic, what's your view on how -- like it's a gradual process, but more and more cars becoming autonomous and just generally more technology-intensive with more sensors, cameras and stuff. How does that affect the TAM and the overall market opportunity for personal, auto companies over the next, if you were to look forward over the next 5 to 10 years or so?

好的。再說一個不相關的話題，您如何看待這個進程？雖然這是一個漸進的過程，但越來越多的汽車將實現自動駕駛，並且整體上技術更加密集，配備更多的感測器、攝影機等。如果您展望未來 5 到 10 年左右，這將如何影響 TAM 以及個人和汽車公司的整體市場機會？

Yes. We're actually doing that exercise right now. We've been doing that exercise for the last 10 or 15 years. I think the first time we talked about it in an Investor Relations call was 2013 and then again in 2017. So we're always looking out sort of this cone of uncertainty or certainty and we look at conservative, pessimistic, middle of the route. I will say we have -- even our most pessimistic view, we were way under.

是的。我們現在實際上正在進行這項練習。我們已經進行這項練習10到15年了。我記得我們第一次在投資者關係電話會議上談論它是在 2013 年，然後在 2017 年又談了一次。因此，我們總是在尋找這種不確定性或確定性的錐體，並尋找保守的、悲觀的、中間的路線。我想說的是，即使按照我們最悲觀的觀點來看，我們也遠遠落後了。

So we did not believe the addressable market would grow at the rate has grown. So we continue to look at that. We're revising what we call runway right now to look at our addressable market. Of course, vehicle safety comes into play. And if you think about the ADAS systems that have come into play in the last 10 or 15, 20 years, yes, it reduces frequency as you've seen the frequency decline in the past 50 or 60 years continues but it's typically offset by severity. It takes a while for the severity -- with the cost to be actually acceptable by consumers. So it takes a while.

因此，我們不相信目標市場會以目前的速度成長。因此我們繼續關注這個問題。我們正在修改所謂的跑道，以了解我們的潛在市場。當然，車輛安全也扮演著重要角色。如果你考慮過去 10 年或 15 年、20 年來開始發揮作用的 ADAS 系統，是的，它會降低頻率，正如你所看到的，過去 50 年或 60 年來頻率的下降仍在繼續，但通常會被嚴重程度所抵消。需要一段時間才能讓消費者真正接受其嚴重程度和成本。所以這需要一段時間。

In addition to that, when you think about technology and cars and the life span of cars, it's now up to about 13 years. So when you think about the addressable market, even as cars get safer, it does take a while for the fleet to grow into that system. And so we believe that, one, we think safer cars is great for society, and we want that to happen. It's really important. And so we're very we want that to happen.

除此之外，當你考慮技術和汽車以及汽車的使用壽命時，它現在已經達到大約 13 年。因此，當你考慮目標市場時，即使汽車變得更加安全，車隊也需要一段時間才能適應系統。因此我們相信，首先，我們認為更安全的汽車對社會有益，我們希望這種情況發生。這真的很重要。因此我們非常希望這種情況能夠發生。

That said, it does take a while to -- for the severity trends to offset the frequency trends. So I guess what I'm trying to say is we think there's a lot addressable market to be had in the next 5 to 10 years. And especially as we diversified across all three horizons. And I had talked about before the opportunity around bundling more of that business, that auto home bundle. We call our Robinsons.

也就是說，嚴重程度趨勢確實需要一段時間才能抵消頻率趨勢。所以我想說的是，我們認為未來 5 到 10 年內會有很大的潛在市場。尤其是當我們在所有三個領域中實現多元化時。我之前曾談到捆綁更多業務、汽車家庭捆綁業務的機會。我們把我們稱為羅賓遜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Tricia, Sure. I'm just hoping to unpack a little bit just on the PLEs and the retention. Just how much is the mix dynamic versus how much is more just competition. So I was hoping maybe you could just talk about how retention looked by customer segment to kind of isolate take the mix dynamic out of it?

嘿，謝謝。早安.特里西婭，當然了。我只是希望稍微解釋一下 PLE 和保留的問題。混合動態的程度與公平競爭的程度究竟有多大。所以我希望您能談談客戶群的保留情況，以便從中分離出混合動態？

We don't typically share that. I think it's -- I think shopping is a lot -- our customers shopping with us is more than it's ever been. It's -- I think it's slowing a little bit because I think things are getting more competitive. And then the mix is always going to influence it. I mean at some point, we could index it and show you a little bit of the difference.

我們通常不會分享這一點。我認為——我認為購物很多——在我們這裡購物的顧客比以往任何時候都多。我認為它正在放緩一點，因為我認為競爭正在變得更加激烈。然後混合總是會對其產生影響。我的意思是，在某個時候，我們可以對其進行索引並向您展示一些差異。

And maybe I think Josh would ask to talk about the Sams and future Robinsons, we could probably weave that into there because that's part of the formula. But we don't typically unpack all of that because even underneath every one of our segments, there's multiple ways we look at those segments depending on channel. Are they -- is it auto home with an unaffiliated partner versus us? So it says there's a lot of detail in that.

也許我認為喬希會要求談論薩姆斯和未來的羅賓遜，我們可能會將其編織到其中，因為這是公式的一部分。但我們通常不會將所有這些都解開，因為即使在我們每個細分市場之下，我們也可以根據管道以多種方式查看這些細分市場。他們是－是與我們合作的汽車之家，而不是與非關聯合作夥伴合作嗎？所以這裡面有很多細節。

Got it. No, okay. That's helpful. And then maybe if I could just follow up. Just on the frequency. So that continues to come in pretty favorable. It's been almost two years now that we've been in negative territory. Could you just talk about if you're seeing any dynamic? It looks like first-party collision claims are down by more than property damage.

知道了。不，好吧。這很有幫助。然後也許我可以跟進一下。只是頻率而已。因此，這仍然非常有利。到現在為止，我們已經處於負值區域近兩年了。您能否談談您是否看到了任何動態？看起來，第一方碰撞索賠的下降幅度超過了財產損失的下降幅度。

Are you seeing any impact just from customers that might not be filing claims and sort of with the deductible, just sort of eating the claims? And I guess, I'm trying to just isolate how much is maybe that dynamic versus just greater penetration of ADAS and some of these collision avoidance systems that might also be putting downward pressure on frequency.

您是否看到一些客戶可能不提出索賠，而是扣除免賠額，從而承擔索賠，從而產生影響？我想，我只是試圖分離出這種動態與 ADAS 和一些防撞系統的更大滲透率之間的差異，這些差異可能也會對頻率造成下行壓力。

Yes. I think -- I mean, it's hard -- collision and PD are always hard because there's the timing and subrogation and the different amounts that we paid -- and Jen had gone over that a little bit. Most of this has been our difference in mix and the continued vehicle miles traveled. And so we're watching that closely. We're seeing -- we continue to see that. So that's really where the majority of our frequency decline has been in.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，這很難——碰撞和 PD 總是很難，因為有時間和代位求償權以及我們支付的不同金額——Jen 已經稍微討論過這一點了。其中大部分是我們在組合和車輛持續行駛里程方面的差異。因此我們正在密切關注。我們看到——我們繼續看到這一點。所以這確實是我們頻率下降的主要原因。

Katie Sakis, Autonomous Research.

凱蒂·薩基斯，自主研究。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. First, I wanted to ask on the 16-month trend time that you guys used when thinking about the various factors and the pricing adequacy model. How has that time frame shifted coming out of the pandemic? Are you guys assuming slightly more months? Was it potentially higher in the past than it is now? And how might you expect that to trend going forward?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。首先，我想問一下你們在考慮各種因素和定價充分性模型時所使用的 16 個月趨勢時間。疫情過後，這個時間框架又發生了什麼樣的變化？你們預計會再多幾個月嗎？過去的可能性是否比現在高？您預計未來趨勢會如何？

Yes. I'll let Brad and or Jen comment on that. But we do try to be flexible depending on what's happening and what's needed in the current environment. And so if you guys want to add anything on that?

是的。我會讓布拉德和 Jen 對此發表評論。但我們確實會根據當前發生的情況和需求採取靈活措施。那你們還想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Tricia. I don't think it's changed that much. It's a function of as we talked about how far back you're looking in your data period. So our growth helps there. if we only have to look back one year instead of two years you don't have to trend as far in the history to today. Also, as we pointed out to, it's also a factor of how quickly you can do rate revisions, get them priced, get them filed, get them approved, but also how many you can do. So the fact that we are able to increase our rate revision capacity quickly if we need to, helps to also reduce the number of months we have to trend into the future.

是的。謝謝，特里西亞。我認為它並沒有發生太大的變化。正如我們所討論的，它是您在資料週期中回顧多遠的函數。因此，我們的成長對此有所幫助。如果我們只需要回顧一年而不是兩年，那麼您就不必回顧歷史直至今天。此外，正如我們所指出的，這也是決定您修改費率、定價、歸檔、批准速度的一個因素，也是您能做多少次修改的一個因素。因此，如果需要的話，我們能夠快速提高利率修訂能力，這也有助於減少我們需要預測未來趨勢的月份數。

Thanks, Brad.

謝謝，布拉德。

That's helpful. And then perhaps as a follow-up, I know we spoke about Florida earlier in Q&A, but are there any other states where you may potentially have profits that are exceeding statutory limits and might have to consider issuing a refund to policyholders?

這很有幫助。然後也許作為後續問題，我知道我們之前在問答中談到了佛羅裡達州，但還有其他州的利潤可能超過法定限額，並且可能不得不考慮向保單持有人退款嗎？

No, I don't think there's any other excess profit statutes other than Florida.

不，我認為除了佛羅裡達州之外沒有其他超額利潤法規。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you, Katie.

謝謝你，凱蒂。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Hey, thanks. In the letter, Tricia, you mentioned that the 8.9 product model in about 50% of your premiums is demonstrating favorable conversion results and elasticity. Any willingness to kind of unpack that a bit. I don't feel like we're seeing it in some of the 10-Q KPIs, although some of them do have tough comps. That's my first question.

嘿，謝謝。特里西婭，在信中您提到，約 50% 的保費採用 8.9 產品模型，顯示出良好的轉換結果和彈性。是否願意稍微解釋一下這個問題。我覺得我們在某些 10-Q KPI 中沒有看到這一點，儘管其中一些確實具有嚴格的比較。這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. I mean, I think every product model we look at, we have is very specific segmentation schematic in that and to grow and especially in the preferred business. Pat, if you want to comment on 8.9 in particular, because we're already on a thinking about 9.0 and our other ones. And it takes some while to, I think, build into it.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們所研究的每個產品模型都有非常具體的細分方案，並且可以成長，特別是在首選業務中。派特，如果你想特別評論一下 8.9，因為我們已經在考慮 9.0 和其他版本了。我認為，這需要一些時間來建立。

Yes. The only thing that I would add is there's a lot of moving parts as we elevate product models into states, and we are taking rates either up or down when we simultaneously elevate the segmentation. So while we look in aggregate at what the contribution happens pre post a model change, there's a lot of moving parts in market as well.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，當我們將產品模型提升到各個狀態時，會有很多活動部件，並且當我們同時提升細分時，我們會提高或降低費率。因此，當我們從整體上看模型改變前後的貢獻時，市場中也有很多活動因素。

But as Tricia mentioned, we recently elevated 9.0 in our first state and continue to bring new segmentation that we think better matches rate to risk to market and creates that adverse selection and more competitive prices for more consumers.

但正如 Tricia 所提到的，我們最近在第一個州提高了 9.0，並繼續帶來新的細分，我們認為這可以使利率與市場風險更好地匹配，並為更多消費者創造逆向選擇和更具競爭力的價格。

Generally, I would add, as we bring on new product models, we're getting more and more competitive on the more preferred end of the spectrum and that is where our market share is lowest. So that creates greater runway for us in terms of growing share across the board, across those consumer marketing tiers.

總的來說，我想補充一點，隨著我們推出新的產品型號，我們在更受歡迎的領域中的競爭力越來越強，而這正是我們的市場份額最低的領域。因此，這為我們在各個消費者行銷層級中全面擴大份額創造了更大的空間。

Yes. Well -- and lastly, we have our 5.0 property product model and about 75% of our net written premium in about 29 states. So that, along with the continued segmentation, the auto side really gives us the ability to get those bundled customers. And I would say, with our current market share and our base of auto PIFs, we're just getting started.

是的。嗯——最後，我們擁有 5.0 財產產品模型，並且約 75% 的淨承保保費分佈在約 29 個州。因此，隨著持續的細分，汽車方面確實使我們有能力獲得那些捆綁客戶。我想說，以我們目前的市佔率和汽車 PIF 基礎來看，我們才剛起步。

That's helpful. And my last follow-up is just kind of seen a force for the trees on shopping levels. I think there were different comments made during this call previously. I just want to understand our are shopping levels still materially above kind of what you -- what Progressive would consider the normal long-term trend line? Or have they already kind of come down to closer to normal or maybe below given the softish kind of pricing environment?

這很有幫助。我最後的跟踪只是看到了購物層面上樹木的力量。我認為之前在這次通話中已經提出了不同的評論。我只是想了解我們的購物水平是否仍然大大高於您認為的正常的長期趨勢線？或者，考慮到較為疲軟的定價環境，它們是否已經回落至接近正常水平，甚至可能低於正常水平？

I would say shopping levels are still high. Ambient shopping is still up, and we would still consider this a hard market because people are still shopping. And that's -- you talked a little bit about that with our PLE. But yes, for now, shopping remains high.

我想說購物水平仍然很高。環境購物仍在成長，我們仍然認為這是一個艱難的市場，因為人們仍在購物。這就是——您和我們的 PLE 談論了這一點。但目前，購物熱情依然高漲。

And just with shopping normalized, just as long as incomes keep increasing and auto rates don't go back up to high singles? Is that how we should think about it? Like it takes a couple of years to normalize?

只要購物正常化，收入持續增加，汽車費率就不會回到高點嗎？我們該這樣思考嗎？好像要幾年的時間才能恢復正常？

Typically, it has in the past. I don't know. It's easy to shop. So I don't know if the pandemic and subsequent events has forever changed shopping behavior, that will unfold as this next couple of years unfolds, but that has been how it typically has worked in markets in the past.

通常來說，過去確實如此。我不知道。購物很容易。因此，我不知道這場疫情及其後續事件是否永遠改變了購物行為，這種情況將在未來幾年內逐漸顯現，但過去的市場通常都是這樣運作的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(technical difficulty) So that concludes our event. I'll hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

（技術難題）我們的活動到此結束。我會把電話轉回給你，讓你提供結束腳本。

That concludes the Progressive Corporation's second quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for next year. You may now disconnect.

這就是 Progressive Corporation 第二季投資人活動結束的那一刻。有關該活動重播的資訊將於明年在 Progressive 網站的投資者關係部分提供。您現在可以斷開連線。