前進保險 (PGR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's third quarter investor event. I'm Doug Constantine, Treasury Controller and I'll be moderator for today's event. The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website.

早安，感謝各位今天參加 Progressive 第三季投資人活動。我是財務主管道格‧康斯坦丁，我將擔任今天活動的主持人。除已發佈在公司網站上的 10-K 表格年度報告、10-Q 表格季度報告和致股東信中提供的資訊外，本公司不會就其業績發表詳細評論。

Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for introductory comments by our CFO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.

雖然我們每季的投資者關係活動通常包含對我們業務特定部分的介紹，但今天我們將利用活動安排的 60 分鐘時間，由我們的財務長進行介紹性發言，並與我們領導團隊成員進行問答環節。

Introductory comments by our CFO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.

我們財務長的開場白已預先錄製好。在先前錄製的演講結束後，我們將利用本次活動剩餘的 60 分鐘時間，與我們的領導團隊成員進行現場問答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.

與以往一樣，本次活動的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，但存在許多風險和不確定性，可能導致實際事件和結果與今天活動中討論的內容有重大差異。

Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first, second and third quarters of 2025, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to the forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face.

有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告，以及我們 2025 年第一、第二和第三季度的 10-Q 表格補充報告。在這些報告中，您可以找到有關影響我們業務的風險因素的討論、與前瞻性聲明相關的安全港聲明以及我們面臨的其他挑戰的討論。

These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com. To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CFO, John Sauerland, who will kick us with some introductory comments.

這些文件可透過我們網站 investors.progressive.com 的投資者關係版塊找到。今天首先，我很高興地向大家介紹我們的財務長約翰·紹爾蘭德，他將為我們作一些開場白。

John?

約翰？

Good morning. Thank you for joining Progressive's third quarter 2025 investor relations call. We had an excellent quarter with an 89.5 combined ratio, 10% premium growth and policies in force growth of 12% versus a year ago. That policies in force growth equates to 4.2 million more policyholders or almost 7 million more vehicles in force than a year ago.

早安.感謝您參加 Progressive 公司 2025 年第三季投資者關係電話會議。本季業績優異，綜合比率為 89.5%，保費成長 10%，有效保單數量較上年同期成長 12%。保單數量增長相當於比一年前增加了 420 萬保單持有人或增加了近 700 萬輛有效車輛。

While growth is lower than in recent years, we are still gaining significant market share in capitalizing on the opportunities for growth through robust media spend and competitive rates. Year-to-date, our combined ratio is 87.3%, with 13% premium growth and comprehensive income of $10 billion, which is over 30% ahead of 2024.

雖然成長速度低於近年水平，但我們仍然透過強有力的媒體投入和具有競爭力的價格，抓住成長機遇，獲得了顯著的市場份額。今年迄今為止，我們的綜合比率為 87.3%，保費增長 13%，綜合收入為 100 億美元，比 2024 年增長 30% 以上。

Rounding out our key performance metrics, our trailing 12-month comprehensive return on equity stands at 37.1%. Before moving to questions, we'd like to take a moment to offer more commentary on the $950 million estimate for policyholder credit expense for Personal Auto customers in Florida that we recognized in September.

最後，我們關鍵績效指標過去 12 個月的綜合股本報酬率為 37.1%。在進入問答環節之前，我們想花點時間對我們在 9 月確認的佛羅裡達州個人汽車保險客戶保單持有人信用支出 9.5 億美元的估計值做進一步說明。

Florida is Progressive's largest market, and we are the leading provider of Personal Auto insurance in Florida. In 2023, Florida legislators responded to rapidly rising insurance rates by passing House Bill 837, which, among other things, move Florida to a modified comparative negligent system, meaning drivers who are more than 50% at fault for an accident could no longer sue for damages, and this allowed one-way attorney fees.

佛羅裡達州是 Progressive 最大的市場，我們是佛羅裡達州領先的個人汽車保險提供者。2023 年，佛羅裡達州立法者通過了眾議院第 837 號法案，以應對快速上漲的保險費率。該法案除其他事項外，將佛羅裡達州改為修改後的比較過失制度，這意味著對事故負有 50% 以上責任的司機將不再有權提起損害賠償訴訟，並且允許單向律師費。

Since House Bill 837 took effect, our average loss cost or pure premiums for Florida injury claims are down between 10% and 20%, and the percentage of Florida personal injury protection or PIP claims, for which we receive lawsuits is down around 60%.

自眾議院第 837 號法案生效以來，我們在佛羅裡達州人身傷害索賠方面的平均損失成本或純保費下降了 10% 到 20%，而我們收到訴訟的佛羅裡達州人身傷害保護 (PIP) 索賠的百分比下降了約 60%。

While we have been responsive in reflecting these changes in our loss costs through two rate reductions for Florida consumers in the past year and another plan for December, the drop in loss cost was more pronounced than we expected.

雖然我們已透過過去一年兩次降低佛羅裡達州消費者的費率以及 12 月的另一項計劃來積極應對損失成本的變化，但損失成本的下降幅度比我們預期的要大得多。

Additionally, obviously, there was significant risk of very costly storms in Florida, and we have seen virtually none in 2025. The Florida excess profits law calls for the return of profits in excess of 500 basis points better than our filed and approved underwriting profit margin over a three accident year period. And at quarter end, we estimated that liability at $950 million.

此外，顯然佛羅裡達州曾面臨發生代價高昂的風暴的重大風險，但我們在 2025 年幾乎沒有看到任何此類風暴。佛羅裡達州超額利潤法要求返還比我們已備案並獲批准的承保利潤率高出 500 個基點以上的利潤（以三年事故年度為週期）。季度末，我們估計該負債為 9.5 億美元。

For perspective, in 2022 alone, inclusive of Hurricane Ian, our Personal Auto combined ratio was over 100, and those results translated to around $750 million decrease to the excess profits equation for the periods that included 2022.

舉例來說，光是 2022 年（包括颶風伊恩在內），我們的個人汽車綜合比率就超過了 100%，這些結果導致 2022 年期間的超額利潤減少了約 7.5 億美元。

Our Florida auto business is more than 50% bigger now than in 2022. We applaud the legislative changes in House Bill 837 and resulting in more affordable personal auto insurance premiums for consumers, and desire to continue to grow our presence in Florida.

我們在佛羅裡達州的汽車業務規模比 2022 年成長了 50% 以上。我們讚賞眾議院第 837 號法案的立法改革，該改革使消費者能夠負擔得起個人汽車保險費，並希望繼續擴大我們在佛羅裡達州的業務。

Our loss reserves will continue to develop as we handle more claims into the new system, and our estimate for the policyholder credit expense for the 2023 to 2025 period will develop accordingly, with monthly adjustments showing up in the expense line on our income statement. Naturally, going forward, our intent is to manage profitability in Florida to avoid excess profits.

隨著我們在新系統中處理更多索賠，我們的損失準備金將繼續增加，我們對 2023 年至 2025 年期間的保單持有人信用費用的估計也將相應增加，每月調整將在我們的損益表費用行中體現。當然，展望未來，我們的目標是控制在佛羅裡達州的獲利能力，避免利潤過高。

And finally, in response to questions we received, while a few other states have statutes covering excess profits, we don't currently foresee other similar exposures. Thank you again for joining us, and we'll now take your questions.

最後，針對我們收到的問題，雖然其他一些州有關於超額利潤的法規，但我們目前預計不會有其他類似的風險。再次感謝各位的參與，現在我們將回答大家的問題。

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. (Operator Instructions)

今天活動的先前錄製部分到此結束。現在我們管理團隊的成員可以在線上回答問題。（操作說明）

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. My first question is on advertising spend. Ad spending this quarter in terms of dollar amount is fairly similar to the last quarter. Just given the increased competition policy in force growth has decelerated, specifically in Personal Auto. Curious if there's a way to think about ad spending going forward. Clearly, these policies are very profitable. Do you need to maintain the current level of ad spending in an increasingly competitive environment? Just curious how you should think about ad spending going forward?

您好，早安。我的第一個問題是關於廣告支出。本季廣告支出金額與上季基本持平。鑑於競爭政策的加強，汽車產業的成長速度已經放緩，尤其是在個人汽車領域。想知道未來廣告支出方面是否有新的思路。顯然，這些政策非常有利可圖。在競爭日益激烈的市場環境下，您是否需要維持目前的廣告支出水準？我很好奇您未來該如何考慮廣告支出？

Yeah, Bob, we monitor that every month on an ongoing basis and monitor most importantly, efficiency. So we want to make sure our cost per sale is lower than our targeted acquisition cost, and that remains to be the case.

是的，鮑勃，我們每個月都會持續監測，最重要的是監測效率。所以我們希望確保每次銷售成本低於我們設定的獲客成本，而目前的情況也確實如此。

So Pat Callahan and his team, we do a lot of our buying of advertising internally. They look at it overall for a year, with things you have to buy in advance. But ongoing, we have the lever to increase or decrease depend on competition. That's what we'll continue to do. Again, our operating goal is to continue to grow as fast as we can and advertising is a great lever to reach that goal.

所以，帕特·卡拉漢和他的團隊，我們很多廣告購買都是內部進行的。他們會從全年整體情況來考慮，包括你需要提前購買的東西。但未來，我們可以根據競爭情況增加或減少投入。我們將繼續這樣做。再次強調，我們的營運目標是盡可能快速地持續成長，而廣告是實現這一目標的重要槓桿。

Okay. Thank you. Maybe just clarifying that point a little bit. When you say that you kind of have -- you're buying ads 12 months in advance. Does that mean that essentially for the next 12 months your ad spending is more or less set already? Or are there some levers around that? Or is it just that most of it still is kind of not so certain? I just want to see if there's a clarification on that point.

好的。謝謝。或許我只是想稍微澄清一下這一點。你說你確實有這種能力——你提前 12 個月購買廣告位。這是否意味著未來 12 個月的廣告支出基本上已經確定了？或者說，這方面還有一些可以調整的因素嗎？或者說，只是大部分事情還是不太確定？我只是想確認這一點是否有更明確的解釋。

Yeah. We'll do some buys in advance to get some discounted buys, but -- a big majority -- a big majority of the ads that we buy are in the auction, and we can -- that's where we can have the levers to pull back or go forward that you've seen in the last several years.

是的。我們會提前購買一些廣告位以獲得折扣，但是——絕大多數——我們購買的絕大多數廣告都是透過競價購買的，我們可以——這就是我們可以像過去幾年那樣，透過競價來調整策略的地方。

Okay. Got it. Thank you very much.

好的。知道了。非常感謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, I was hoping you could just comment just on the competitive environment in general and what you observed in the Q3, and I guess, like a forward view, right, we've seen others pivot to growth as we move through the year?

您好，謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是，我希望您能就整體競爭環境以及您在第三季觀察到的情況發表一下看法，我想，就像展望未來一樣，對吧？我們看到隨著時間的推移，其他公司也轉向了成長？

And just how has that impacted that combined, right, with the fact that we're in this environment where you guys said in the Q, you don't need that much rate right now? How does that help you formulate your view about growth, right, both in the near term, like in the fourth quarter, but then also as we think about 2026?

那麼，結合你們在問答環節中提到的目前不需要那麼高的利率這一事實，這究竟會產生怎樣的影響呢？這如何幫助你形成對成長的看法，對吧？無論是短期成長，例如第四季度，還是展望 2026 年？

Thanks, Elyse, and thanks for acknowledging your report last night that we had strong growth in Q3 of '24 because I've been comparing the growth and the fact that we've slowed is sort of funny to me because of how much we've grown on such a big base. So I appreciate you acknowledging that.

謝謝伊莉絲，也謝謝你認可你昨晚的報告，報告指出我們在 2024 年第三季度實現了強勁增長，因為我一直在比較增長情況，而我們現在增速放緩的事實讓我覺得有點好笑，因為我們是在如此大的基數上實現的。我很感謝你認可這一點。

So yeah, the competitive environment has gotten stronger, which we knew would happen. That's why we got out in advance of rates to capture all the growth that we did, and we did. This is when the fun starts. So competition is great. It's great for customers and consumers. And so we'll continue to find ways with which to grow.

是的，競爭環境變得更加激烈了，這也在我們的預料之中。這就是為什麼我們在利率上漲之前就提前佈局，從而抓住了所有成長機會，而我們也確實做到了。好戲才剛開始。所以競爭是好事。這對顧客和消費者來說都是好事。因此，我們將繼續尋找發展的方法。

We have a lot out there in terms of as we look at each state, each channel, different factors in terms of Sams, Wrights, Robinsons, and we have a strategy to grow all of the above. And probably, the biggest growth point for us, Elyse, is when we think of Robinsons. So we have -- we want to grow in every single persona.

我們有很多東西可以研究，例如每個州、每個管道，以及 Sams、Wrights、Robinsons 等不同因素，我們制定了發展上述所有業務的策略。伊莉絲，對我們來說，最大的成長點可能就是我們想到羅賓遜家族的時候。所以我們希望──我們希望在每個角色上都能有所成長。

So we love Sams as long as we can make our calendar year profitable. But we want to grow Robinsons because that market is about a $230 billion addressable market, and we have a low percentage of that share. So there's a lot of opportunity.

所以，只要我們能保證全年獲利，我們就喜歡山姆會員店。但我們希望發展 Robinsons，因為該市場是一個價值約 2,300 億美元的潛在市場，而我們目前所佔份額很低。所以有很多機會。

I'll probably go into a little bit more detail than you need. But I think as you think about not just fourth quarter, but especially as we get into '26 and '27. And the area of our focus will be more Robinsons because we're in such a different position than we were a few years ago.

我可能會講得比你需要的更詳細一些。但我認為，當你考慮的不僅僅是第四季度，尤其是當我們進入 2026 年和 2027 年時。我們將把更多精力放在 Robinsons 身上，因為我們現在的處境與幾年前截然不同。

So as you know, we needed rate increases, we needed better segmentation, we needed some cost sharing to go into the policies, we needed to exit DP3. There's a lot of things that we did that I referred to a couple of different times of our five point blueprint to get to where we need to go to.

如你所知，我們需要提高費率，我們需要更好的細分市場，我們需要一些成本分攤到政策中，我們需要退出DP3。我們做了很多事情，我在我們實現目標的五點計劃中多次提到這些事情。

We did just that. We increased rates from 22% to 24%, about 55% and continue, but on a much more moderate level because we're in such a different position. Our calendar year combined ratio now on property is about 78%, and granted some of that is favorable reserve development as well as we haven't had many storms at all in 2025, but that is a great position to be in.

我們正是這麼做的。我們將利率從 22% 提高到 24%，大約提高了 55%，而且還在繼續提高，但幅度要溫和得多，因為我們現在的處境已經完全不同了。我們目前的年度綜合物業比率約為 78%，誠然，其中一些得益於有利的儲備開發，而且 2025 年我們幾乎沒有遇到任何風暴，但這仍然是一個很好的局面。

And so as we think about our growth, we think about -- we have a framework that we're using called a new business readiness growth. And we look at the assessment of adequate rate level, segmentation, so which product is in the market, cost sharing, interstate diversification, regulation and market conditions.

因此，當我們思考我們的成長時，我們會想到——我們正在使用一個名為「新業務準備成長」的框架。我們會評估適當的費率水準、市場區隔（即市場上有哪些產品）、成本分攤、州際多元化、監管和市場狀況。

And when we look at all those factors, what we look at state by state is where do we want to grow and where we think we can grow and how are we positioned in those states. So currently, there's about 30 states -- 33 states where we want to -- we're going to spur on growth. And about 20 of those are in our growth states that we've called growth states and 13 are more volatile. We'll be a little bit more conservative in the volatile state, but that really opens us up broadly for more Robinsons, for more growth.

當我們考慮所有這些因素時，我們會逐州考察，看看我們想在哪裡發展，我們認為我們可以在哪裡發展，以及我們在這些州的定位如何。所以目前，我們計劃在大約 30 個州（實際上是 33 個州）促進經濟成長。其中約有 20 個位於我們稱為成長型州的成長型州，另有 13 個波動性較大。在局勢動盪的州，我們會採取更保守的策略，但這實際上為我們創造了更多像羅賓遜這樣的機會，帶來了更大的成長。

And as you can imagine, in John's opening statement, he talked about VIF, Vehicles in Force, which we don't publicly talk about. We talk about PIF. But when you compare the $4.2 million PIF growth year-over-year, that equates to about $7 million VIF growth.

正如你所料，約翰在開場白中談到了 VIF（車輛執法部門），這是我們不會公開談論的話題。我們來談談PIF。但與去年同期相比，PIF 成長了 420 萬美元，相當於 VIF 成長了約 700 萬美元。

You can imagine that this growth with more Robinsons is much higher because they're multicar and multiproduct households. So competition is there. We have a lot on the horizon to spur on growth, and we're pretty excited about it.

您可以想像，隨著羅賓遜家族成員的增多，這種增長會更加顯著，因為他們是多車多品家庭。所以競爭是存在的。我們有很多未來發展計劃可以促進成長，對此我們感到非常興奮。

Thank you. And then my follow-up is just, I guess, on margins and tariffs. It seems like from the Q commentary that you guys really have not seen an impact yet. So I just want to make sure I'm reading the comments correctly. And then, do you guys still expect that perhaps we could see an impact on loss trend in margins as we move through the balance of the year?

謝謝。然後我的後續問題，我想，就是利潤率和關稅問題。從Q的評論來看，你們似乎還沒有真正感受到影響。所以我想確認一下我是否正確理解了這些評論。那麼，你們是否仍然認為，隨著今年剩餘時間的過去，我們可能會看到利潤率的虧損趨勢受到影響？

Yeah, you read that exactly correct. We haven't seen much on that. It might be because there's inventory and of course, the tariff schematic has changed along the way. But we're still -- we're looking at low single digits, and we have the margins to be able to absorb that. So we're not too worried about tariffs at this point. Of course, that could change. But at this point, we're not too worried about it.

是的，你沒看錯。我們在這方面了解不多。這可能是因為庫存充足，當然，關稅方案也隨之改變了。但我們目前預期的增幅將控制在個位數，我們有足夠的盈餘來應對。所以目前我們並不太擔心關稅問題。當然，這種情況可能會改變。但目前我們並不太擔心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Hi, good morning. My first question is on, hopefully, teasing out premiums per policy when we just kind of prudently divide premiums by PIF, and this is for Personal Auto. It's been slightly negative for a while now, which appears to be different from the kind of the flattish pricing you've been speaking to.

您好，早安。我的第一個問題是，希望能夠計算出每份保單的保費，當我們謹慎地將保費除以 PIF 時，這是針對個人汽車保險的。一段時間以來，價格一直略微呈負成長，這似乎與你之前提到的價格平穩的情況有所不同。

So trying to tease out whether the negativity is coming from just some of the Florida rate reductions? Is the December one going to be a large one if you want to preview that? Or is it coming from just other actions you're talking about policyholders switching to lower-cost policies, et cetera? Thanks.

所以，我們想弄清楚這種負面情緒是否僅僅來自佛羅裡達州的部分降息措施？12月份的那次規模會很大嗎？如果可以的話，我想提前了解一下。或者，您指的是其他一些行為，例如投保人轉而選擇成本較低的保單等等？謝謝。

Yeah. I think, Mike, there's a lot of things happening. Our average written premium is affected by our rate decreases. And obviously, it went up tremendously in '23 into '24 with all of the increases that we took based on inflation. I think the reaction might be a little bit on growth, although 12% PIF growth on a 14% PIF growth to me is really unheard of.

是的。我覺得，麥克，現在發生了很多事。我們的平均保費收入會受到費率下調的影響。顯然，由於我們根據通貨膨脹率進行了各種增長，2023 年到 2024 年期間，它大幅上漲了。我認為這種反應可能有點偏向成長，儘管在 14% 的 PIF 成長率下，12% 的 PIF 成長率對我來說真是聞所未聞。

And any time we're in anywhere near that double-digit growth, we're pretty darn excited, at an 89.5% with the $950 million accrual. So the Florida situation is just that. And we're going to tell you what we know when we know it.

每當我們接近兩位數的成長時，我們都會非常興奮，目前成長率為 89.5%，累計收入為 9.5 億美元。所以佛羅裡達州的情況就是這樣。我們會在知道答案後第一時間告訴大家。

So as John said, we'll continue to revise our accrual as the year plays out. So in a couple of weeks, you'll know if the accrual has gone up or down for October and then there are sometimes late year storms, I think in 2024, Helene and Milton were both in September and October. So we'll watch those. But I feel really good about where we're at. I mean if we had a crystal ball in Florida, we might have done things differently. But I think we have handled that really well. We're very large. They're the largest.

正如約翰所說，我們將隨著年限的推移繼續調整我們的應計項目。所以再過幾週，你就會知道 10 月的應計金額是增加了還是減少了，然後有時會發生年末風暴，我想 2024 年的 Helene 和 Milton 都發生在 9 月和 10 月。所以我們會關注這些。但我對我們目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我的意思是，如果我們當年在佛羅裡達的時候能預知未來，我們或許會採取不同的做法。但我認為我們處理得非常好。我們規模非常大。它們是最大的。

And as John said in his opening statements, I -- and I've said this before, I'm going to commend Governor DeSantis and Commissioner Yaworsky for this legislative change with House Bill 837. It really has had a profound and a momentous effect on the state of Florida's insurance market.

正如約翰在開場白中所說，我——而且我以前也說過，我要讚揚德桑蒂斯州長和亞沃斯基專員通過眾議院第 837 號法案進行的這項立法變革。它確實對佛羅裡達州的保險市場產生了深遠而重大的影響。

And I've been in this business about 38 years. I would never imagine these changes and how great they are for the benefit of Florida consumers. So we'll continue to watch that. But I think from a premium per policy, we're always going to be competitive and segments change, and that kind of all goes into the math.

我從事這個行業已經大約38年了。我從未想到會發生這些變化，以及這些變化對佛羅裡達州消費者帶來的巨大好處。所以我們會繼續關注此事。但我認為，從每份保單的保費來看，我們始終會保持競爭力，而且市場區隔也在不斷變化，所有這些都會納入計算之中。

Okay. Got it. Maybe pivoting to, Tricia, your remarks about share buybacks potentially being a bigger lever than historically. Can you talk about just the framework there? Should we -- are you alluding to the special dividend being put into buybacks instead at current valuations or for both? Or anything -- any color would be helpful.

好的。知道了。特里西亞，或許我們可以轉到你之前關於股票回購可能比以往發揮更大作用的觀點上來。能談談其中的框架嗎？您是否暗示將特別股息用於以當前估值回購股票，還是兩者都用於？或者任何顏色都可以——任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yeah. When we have excess capital, we think of it in three ways. And obviously, we're -- I just talked a little bit when I answered Elyse's questions about our desire to continue to grow and our actions around that. And then, of course, we look at share buybacks if we believe it's under our intrinsic value. Of course, we always buy enough shares to dilute the stock compensation in any given year.

是的。當我們擁有過剩資金時，我們會從三個方面來考慮。顯然，我們——我剛才在回答伊莉絲的問題時稍微談到了我們希望繼續發展以及我們為此採取的行動。當然，如果我們認為股價低於內在價值，我們也會考慮股票回購。當然，我們每年都會買足夠的股票來稀釋股票薪酬。

We have the ability to do that. And you'll see in our monthly release the actual number of shares we buy back each month as well as the average price. And so you'll see that in a few weeks as well. We have a company-wide 10b5-1 that we file with certain price points to buy back stock if we think it's under our value. And so you'll see our actions that we took in October in a few weeks.

我們有能力做到這一點。您將在我們的月度報告中看到我們每月實際回購的股票數量以及平均價格。所以幾週後你就會明白這一點。我們公司有一份 10b5-1 表格，我們會根據一定的價位回購股票，前提是我們認為股票價格低於公司估值。所以，幾週後你們就會看到我們在十月採取的行動。

And then we've been in party discussions with the Board of Directors in the last couple of meetings on what we think could be a dividend. And of course, that will ultimately be their choice, and we'll have another conversation in December [end].

然後，在過去的幾次會議上，我們與董事會進行了多次討論，探討我們認為可以發放股利的方案。當然，這最終將由他們自己選擇，我們將在十二月再次討論此事。[結尾]。

With that, we'll kind of be watching our ability to buy back more as well as what we think if we have a dividend, what it will be. But those are conversations that are constantly happening within our walls and with our Board of Directors.

因此，我們會密切注意我們回購更多股票的能力，以及如果我們派發股息，股息金額會是多少。但這些對話在我們公司內部以及與董事會之間一直在進行。

So just, Tricia, just to be clear, were you signaling a change in capital management tone by stating the buyback language? Or are you saying this is just business as usual discussion with the Board? Thanks.

所以，特里西亞，為了確認一下，你使用回購措辭是否意味著資本管理基調發生了變化？還是你是說這只是與董事會進行的例行業務討論？謝謝。

All I was saying was that we're very cognizant when the shares -- when we believe the shares are under our intrinsic value, and we typically, if we have the capital, take action when that happens.

我只是想說，我們非常清楚股票價格何時低於我們認為的內在價值，而且通常情況下，如果我們有資金，我們就會採取行動。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

Thank you. I have a question about your Florida excess profit statute. When you perform the same exercise next year, let's call it, September for accident years '24 to '26 to see if you owe any excess profits in early '27. Is there a scenario where you'll be paying another Florida excess profit statute given all the favorable reserve development you experienced in the state in recent years? Or do the excess credits you're paying in '26 basically neutralize a lot of those excess profits that you could owe in '27?

謝謝。我有一個關於佛羅裡達州超額利潤法的問題。明年，我們不妨稱之為 9 月份，對 2024 年至 2026 年的事故年度進行同樣的練習，看看 2027 年初是否需要支付任何超額利潤。鑑於近年來佛羅裡達州的儲備開發對您有利，是否存在您需要再次繳納佛羅裡達州超額利潤法罰款的情況？或者說，你在 2026 年支付的超額稅款基本上可以抵消你在 2027 年可能需要支付的許多超額利潤？

Well, we don't know. And we're going to -- as I said earlier, we're going to continue to refine our accrual as each month goes by for this three year trailing period. It's -- and at that point at the end of this year, we'll know the sort of fully like you said, neutralized amount for that. And so the hard part, and we've tried to signal this about Florida is the storm season is typically at the end of the year.

我們不知道。正如我之前所說，我們將繼續在未來三年的滾動期內，隨著每個月的過去，不斷改進我們的應計項目。到今年年底，我們就會知道正如你所說，完全中和後的金額是多少。因此，最困難的部分，也是我們一直試圖指出的佛羅裡達州的特點，就是風暴季節通常在年底。

So we're putting another decrease in, in December. We'll watch that closely. I think John said, we'll do what we can to avoid a similar situation in '27 for calendar year '26, '25, '24, but we feel good about where we're at right now with the accrual and we'll continue to revise that.

因此，我們將在12月再次下調價格。我們會密切注意。我認為約翰說過，我們會盡力避免在 2027 年（2026、2025、2024 日曆年）出現類似的情況，但我們對目前的應計情況感到滿意，並將繼續進行修訂。

Okay. And you saw that Florida auto business is more than 50% bigger now than in '22, and you're managing the profitability in Florida to avoid those excess profits and you took two rate cuts and you're going to take another one. So my question is on bundling. Can you share how much of your homeowner policies have grown in Florida? And how you're thinking about your property exposure relative to your risk appetite?

好的。您也看到了，佛羅裡達州的汽車業務現在比 2022 年增長了 50% 以上，您正在管理佛羅裡達州的盈利能力，以避免這些過高的利潤，您已經兩次降息，而且您還將再次降息。所以我的問題是關於捆綁的。請問貴公司在佛羅裡達州的房屋保險保費增加了多少？您如何看待您的房產風險敞口與您的風險承受能力之間的關係？

Yeah. Our property growth in Florida has been minimal. Several years ago, we reviewed our policies in Florida to get to where we -- where we are in terms of our readiness growth. We had a lot of DP-3. We had a lot of coastal properties. And so we had a lot of non-renewals that we gave to another company to be able to write. We will write a little bit in Florida now, mostly new construction.

是的。我們在佛羅裡達州的房地產成長微乎其微。幾年前，我們審查了我們在佛羅裡達州的政策，才有了我們目前在戰備增長方面所取得的成就。我們有很多DP-3。我們擁有很多沿海房產。因此，我們有很多未續約的合同，我們把它們轉給了另一家公司繼續承接。接下來我們將稍微介紹一下佛羅裡達州的情況，主要是新建案。

And that's a place where like we say, when we talk about volatile states that we will not be -- have huge aggressive growth, but we'll grow where we think we can and make our target profit margins. But the growth in the property book has not been huge.

就像我們常說的，當我們談到動盪的州時，我們不會——進行大規模的激進增長，但我們會在我們認為可以增長的地方增長，並實現我們的目標利潤率。但房地產業務的成長並不顯著。

Thank you for confirming.

感謝您的確認。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. I had a question just on competition in Personal Auto. Most competitors have been increasing marketing spending in recent months. Many have alluded to potential price reductions as well just given strong margins.

嘿，早安。我有一個關於個人汽車行業競爭的問題。近幾個月來，大多數競爭對手都增加了行銷支出。鑑於利潤空間較大，許多人也暗示可能會降價。

So your comments on competition, is that what they reflect? Or are you seeing competitors get more aggressive with pricing and writing business either with sort of implied losses or very low margins, so just whether it’s exactly rationale?

所以你對競爭的看法，是否反映了這一點？或者您是否看到競爭對手在定價和業務方面變得更加激進，要么隱含虧損，要么利潤率非常低，那麼這是否真的合理呢？

Yeah, I just want to say, I think we're seeing all of the above. I think we're seeing a lot of -- we saw a lot of price decreases. We've seen more increase in advertising, and I think that all goes to competitiveness. So I think we think that's good for consumers.

是的，我只想說，我認為我們看到了以上所有情況。我認為我們看到了很多——我們看到了很多價格下降。我們看到廣告投入大幅增加，我認為這都與競爭有關。所以我覺得這對消費者來說是好事。

And when we think of -- when we think of the strategic pillars, that's one big piece of it but you have to have a really great brand, and our brand has continued to evolve and will continue to evolve to get us on that short list.

當我們思考策略支柱時，這固然是其中重要的一部分，但你必須擁有一個真正優秀的品牌，而我們的品牌一直在不斷發展，並將繼續發展，才能使我們進入候選名單。

You have to have for us broad coverage where, when and how customers want to shop. And we have that across the board from our independent agent channel, our direct channel and then we have multiple different areas with which to buy our products or the products of our unaffiliated partners.

你們必須能夠廣泛涵蓋顧客希望購物的地點、時間和方式。我們從獨立代理商管道、直接管道到多個不同的銷售管道，都提供這種服務，您可以在這裡購買我們的產品或我們非關聯合作夥伴的產品。

And then we have -- and this is sometimes underestimated because part of what's been Progressive's success is our people and our culture. That's really hard to put on the spreadsheet for an analyst. We just finished our Gallup survey, we're in the 99% of culture and engagement.

然後我們還有——這有時會被低估，因為 Progressive 取得成功的部分原因在於我們的人員和文化。對於分析師來說，這真的很難輸入到電子表格中。我們剛完成了蓋洛普的調查，我們在企業文化和員工敬業度方面排名前99%。

That's really important because when you have times where you want to get something done, whether it's growth or decrease expenses or roll out a new product, execution is the name of the game and you have to have a great culture to be able to do that because people want to be able to rally around a singular goal. So those four things we think about all the time. But as far as competitive prices, we're seeing increased advertising and much more competitive pricing out there.

這非常重要，因為當你想完成某件事時，無論是成長、降低成本還是推出新產品，執行力都是關鍵，而你必須擁有良好的企業文化才能做到這一點，因為人們希望能夠團結在一個共同的目標周圍。所以，這四件事是我們一直在思考的。但就價格競爭力而言，我們看到廣告投放量增加，市場上的價格競爭也更加激烈。

Okay. And then maybe on a different topic, if I think about your commercial lines business, I would have thought that it would be growing at a fairly fast clip since you were expanding your target markets, broadening coverage, adding new types of coverages, policies.

好的。再換個主題，如果我考慮一下你們的商業保險業務，我會認為它應該會成長得相當快，因為你們一直在擴大目標市場、擴大保險範圍、增加新的保險類型和保單。

And if we look at the numbers the last couple of years, they've been high single digits, which is decent, but high single-digit premium growth the last couple of quarters. I think premium growth has actually been negative off of modest comp. So how do you think about like maybe talk about your aspirations or growth potential of your Commercial Lines business over the longer term?

如果我們看一下過去幾年的數據，就會發現它們一直保持在個位數的高位，這還算不錯，但最近幾季的保費成長率也只有個位數的高位。我認為，由於同業比較基數不高，高端市場的成長其實是負成長。那麼，您如何看待，例如談談您的商業保險業務在長期發展中的願景或成長潛力？

Yeah. I think longer term, we have great aspirations. Clearly, FHT has been a headwind, those are -- that was -- it's higher margin business, but we have slowed growth there, a lot due to both rate and non-rate actions. And we've increased our growth in business owners and contractors which are a lower premium, and we've done some six month policy. So there -- so what you're seeing is real in the data.

是的。我認為從長遠來看，我們有遠大的抱負。顯然，FHT 一直是個不利因素，FHT 曾經是利潤率較高的業務，但我們已經放緩了這方面的成長，這很大程度上是由於利率和非利率方面的措施。我們增加了企業主和承包商的業務成長，他們的保費較低，我們也推出了一些六個月的保單。所以，你看到的這些數據都是真的。

However, I think you're correct. We have a couple of areas that we have grown over the years and really wanted to understand them more deeply. And we have pretty complex plans to spur on growth in a couple of different areas. I'm not going to talk about those today. I'll talk about those maybe as we get into them. More specifically, I don't want to show my cards. But yeah, we believe that the runway in Commercial Lines continues to be really strong.

不過，我認為你是對的。多年來，我們在某些​​領域取得了長足發展，我們非常希望能夠更深入地了解這些領域。我們制定了相當複雜的計劃，以促進幾個不同領域的成長。我今天不打算談那些事。等我們深入探討這些內容時，我可能會談到它們。更具體地說，我不想暴露我的底牌。是的，我們認為商業保險市場的發展前景仍然非常強勁。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning. In your letter in previous comments, you've talked about new products, your Personal Auto product, 8.9 and 9.0 and then in the property area, your next-gen product, 5.0. So as we're sitting here on the outside watching these developments, trying to understand what does Personal Auto product 9.0 mean versus product 8.9 and is the difference that material? And the same question would be applied to the property next-generation product, too?

早安.在您之前的來信中，您提到了新產品，包括您的個人汽車保險產品 8.9 和 9.0，以及房地產領域的下一代產品 5.0。我們作為局外人，正在關注這些進展，試圖理解個人汽車保險產品 9.0 與產品 8.9 的區別，以及它們之間的差異是否真的那麼重要？同樣的問題也適用於下一代房地產產品嗎？

Yeah. That's a great question. First, I would say we're not very creative when we name our new product model. So I'm going to give you that because you'll see on 5 -- we're 5.0 and 5.1 in property, 8.9, 9.1. I'm going to let Pat take that. But what I would say is years ago, probably around 2016 maybe, we decided that we really wanted to have the pace of our models increase to get more and more variables out there that are predictive of either loss cost or if we wanted to increase a certain segment like the Robinsons.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。首先，我想說我們在為新產品型號命名時缺乏創意。所以我把這個給你，因為你會看到在第5頁——我們在房地產方面是5.0和5.1，8.9，9.1。我讓帕特來做這件事。但我想說的是，幾年前，大概是 2016 年左右，我們決定加快模型的開發速度，以便引入更多能夠預測損失成本的變量，或者如果我們想增加像 Robinsons 這樣的特定細分市場。

And that's why we end up doing that. But -- and we -- I don't think we're going to go into the specific variables. But I'll let Pat talk about that a little bit more because we have very large R&D groups that work on these product models constantly.

這就是我們最終這麼做的原因。但是——而且——我認為我們不會深入探討具體的變數。但我還是讓帕特再多談談這方面吧，因為我們有非常龐大的研發團隊，他們一直在研究這些產品模型。

Pat, do you want to add anything?

派特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure. So from a product perspective, we try to do a couple of things every time we roll out a new product. And the first is primarily to match rate to risk better than we did in the prior product. And insurance is a scale game. We have more data than most competitors, and our product is more complex.

當然。所以從產品角度來看，我們每次推出新產品時都會嘗試做以下幾件事。首先，主要目的是比之前的產品更好地將利率與風險相匹配。保險業是一場規模遊戲。我們擁有比大多數競爭對手更多的數據，而且我們的產品也更複雜。

So we have more segmented or finite data than virtually all competitors in market. So that data enables us to solve what predicts and fits losses more precisely or more accurately than others can. So the first and foremost is to match rate to risk.

因此，我們擁有比市場上幾乎所有競爭對手都更細分或更具體的數據。因此，這些數據使我們能夠比其他人更精確地預測和擬合損失。因此，首要任務是使利率與風險相符。

Second, though, is to introduce differentiating coverages that meet consumers' needs to transfer risk to us as the carrier to smooth household cash flows. So a couple of examples of that between 8.9 and 9.0. So 8.9, we introduced Progressive vehicle protection. Think of it as a mechanical breakdown coverage for vehicles that supplements a new car warranty and provides things like lost key fob and dent and ding repair as well as supplementing the OEM warranty as the powertrain warranty or bumper-to-bumper warranty kind of runs off on a new car.

其次，要推出差異化的保險產品，以滿足消費者將風險轉移給我們（保險公司）以平滑家庭現金流的需求。舉幾個 8.9 到 9.0 版本之間的例子。 8.9 版本中，我們引進了漸進式車輛保護。您可以將其視為車輛的機械故障保險，它是對新車保固的補充，提供諸如丟失鑰匙遙控器、凹痕和刮痕維修等服務，同時也是對原廠保固的補充，因為動力系統保固或整車保固在新車上通常會過期。

And 9.0, similarly, we come out with new segmentation where we solve all the math and the factors to fit the loss curve more precisely while also introducing with 9.0 embedded renters. So now you can embed and buy a renter's insurance coverage as part of your progressive auto policy.

同樣，在 9.0 版本中，我們推出了新的細分方法，解決了所有數學問題和因素，以更精確地擬合損失曲線，同時在 9.0 版本中引入了嵌入式租客。現在您可以將租屋保險作為您的 Progressive 汽車保險的一部分進行購買。

So we recognize that renters insurance is a potential gateway product for us in the property space, and we want to make sure that we are attracting multiline customers early in their insurance shopping and buying journey, and we want to protect their household goods as part of a renter's product and allow them to move them into a home or a condo as they change their living situation.

因此，我們意識到租屋保險是我們進入房地產領域的潛在入門產品，我們希望確保在客戶的保險選購和購買過程中儘早吸引他們購買多險種保險，我們希望透過租屋保險產品來保護他們的家庭物品，並允許他們在改變居住環境時將這些物品搬進房屋或公寓。

So really, a couple of things we do with every product, but primarily it's solved the math to make sure we're as accurate as we can, leveraging our massive scale; and secondarily, get that product to market, as Tricia mentioned, as quick as possible.

所以實際上，我們對每個產品都會做兩件事，但最主要的是，我們利用自身龐大的規模，透過數學計算確保盡可能精確；其次，正如特里西亞提到的，盡快將產品推向市場。

Thanks for the details. As a follow-up question, I'm going to focus pivot to technology and autonomous driving. The new cars coming out have a lot of embedded technologies. Some of them actually can drive themselves to locations, the new Tesla I'm thinking about, in particular.

謝謝你提供的詳細資訊。作為後續問題，我將重點轉向技術和自動駕駛領域。新款汽車都搭載了許多嵌入式技術。有些車甚至可以自動駕駛到目的地，尤其是我正在考慮的新款特斯拉。

So I think it's appropriate for us to -- as we think about Progressive, what's your view on this technology, emerging technology? And in that moment in time, maybe 15 years from now when we get to a fully autonomous type of environment. Can you talk about how the company is thinking about that? And any color there would be helpful.

所以我覺得我們應該——當我們思考 Progressive 技術時，您對這項新興技術有何看法？而到了那一刻，或許在15年後，當我們進入完全自主的環境。能談談公司對此有何考慮嗎？任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yeah. We've been watching this for many, many years. I think we first did our first, what we call runway model, in 2012 and to try to understand, okay, the implications of cars that are safer. First of all, safer cars are better for the world. So we think that's a great thing.

是的。我們已經關注這件事很多年了。我認為我們第一次製作所謂的「跑道模型」是在 2012 年，目的是了解更安全的汽車所帶來的影響。首先，更安全的汽車對世界更有益。所以我們認為這是一件好事。

And I think we build that into our product as we think about vehicles that have safer components. Just like you would have at any time with seat belts or backup cameras, those sorts of things. So we're continuing to revise our model.

我認為我們在設計車輛時，會將這種理念融入我們的產品中，使其擁有更安全的零件。就像你平常會繫安全帶或安裝倒車影像之類的東西。因此，我們正在繼續修改我們的模型。

In fact, we're in the midst of doing it right now to try to understand when that will impact us. And we see a lot -- we gather a lot of data. We see a lot of data even when you compare like the Waymo cars in Austin, and we look at our relationships with TNC, we've not seen too much of a change and the changes there with pretty heavy Waymo use has not muted TNC miles.

事實上，我們現在正在這樣做，以了解這會對我們產生什麼影響。我們看到了很多——我們收集了很多數據。即使與奧斯汀的 Waymo 汽車進行比較，我們也看到了許多數據。我們觀察與 TNC 的關係，並沒有看到太大的變化，而且 Waymo 的大量使用並沒有減少 TNC 的行駛里程。

So we're continuing to watch that getting as granular as we can. But at a higher level, what we did years ago is we constructed the three horizons to really understand how we can grow across the board, not just in where we've typically grown in our private Passenger Auto and our Commercial Auto, which we're still going to continue to do. But that's when we really built our Commercial Lines product models out.

所以我們會繼續密切關注，並盡可能進行細緻的分析。但從更高的層面來看，我們多年前構建了三個階段，以便真正了解如何全面發展，而不僅僅是在我們通常發展的私人乘用車和商用車領域（我們仍將繼續發展這些領域）。但正是在那時，我們真正建立了我們的商業保險產品模式。

So think of BOP fleet, our relationships with our TNC partners and many other things. And then, of course, our Horizon 3, which are smaller now, but we believe will be bigger in the future. We're going to continue to look at that, we call it, execute, expand, explore to make sure that we have a really robust model as cars get safer and as frequency goes down, and we'll watch that and make a determination of what we need to do to continue to grow.

所以想想 BOP 船隊、我們與 TNC 合作夥伴的關係以及其他許多方面。當然，還有我們的 Horizo​​n 3，它現在比較小，但我們相信未來會更大。我們將繼續關注、執行、擴展和探索，以確保隨著汽車安全性的提高和事故頻率的降低，我們擁有一個真正穩健的模型。我們將密切關注，並決定我們需要做什麼才能繼續發展。

And we talk about this all the time because it's important for society, but it's also important for us to know areas where we can grow, where we can leverage our people, our data, our scale to grow in different ways, and that's what we talk about as we think about autonomous vehicles.

我們一直在談論這個問題，因為它對社會很重要，但對我們來說，了解我們可以發展的領域，了解我們可以利用我們的人員、數據和規模以不同方式發展也很重要，這就是我們在思考自動駕駛汽車時所討論的內容。

It's -- the time frame is always sort of the big question mark. Because if you look at articles in 2012, it would have said everyone is driving around playing bridge in the back of their car. In 2019, that hasn't been the case. So we still think there's a lot to go again. We don't have our heads in the sand, and we'll continue to think about growth in different areas.

時間安排始終是個很大的問號。因為如果你看看 2012 年的文章，你會發現上面寫著每個人都在開車時坐在車後座打橋牌。但2019年並非如此。所以我們仍然認為還有很多工作要做。我們並非鴕鳥心態，我們將繼續思考各領域的成長。

Thanks for the answer.

謝謝你的回答。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning. First one I had is on shopping and retention. I was just interested if you could compare sort of the time period where you're taking bigger increases or the industry is taking bigger increases in the shopping activity that was going on than in sort of reaction to higher prices as opposed to maybe what you're expecting over the next 12 months on retention related more to well, you could shop and go get a lower price potentially somewhere. Are you seeing different kinds of sensitivity to that related to up in pricing versus potential for down?

嘿，早安。我的第一個問題是關於購物和客戶留存的。我只是想知道，您能否比較一下，在您或整個行業購物活動大幅增長的時期，是否是因為價格上漲而導致的，而​​不是因為您預計未來 12 個月內，消費者留存率會如何變化，以及消費者可能會去其他地方購買更低的價格。您是否觀察到人們對價格上漲和價格下跌的敏感度有差異？

Yeah. I mean I think we're seeing a lot of shopping, which means all customers are going to shop including ours, and you see that in our PLE. Our feeling is just as we talked about in the Q, oftentimes, our customers will reach out to us and we can do a policy review with our cancer preservation team to see if there's something we can do to help them out from a price perspective. If we end up writing a brand-new policy that starts the clock ticking. So that is a little bit of a headwind to PLE, but not when we think about our consumer life expectancy, our household life expectancy.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們看到了很多購物活動，這意味著所有顧客都會購物，包括我們的顧客，這一點在我們的商品陳列圖中也能看到。我們的想法正如我們在問答環節中提到的那樣，很多時候，我們的客戶會聯繫我們，我們可以和我們的癌症治療團隊一起進行政策審查，看看我們是否能從價格方面為他們做些什麼。如果我們最終制定了一項全新的政策，那麼時間就開始倒數了。所以這對 PLE 來說有點不利，但如果我們考慮到消費者的預期壽命和家庭的預期壽命，那就不是問題了。

When you look at that, we don't share that data externally. We share PLE. But if you look at our, say, household life expectancy of having a product with Progressive, that's relatively flat. So we feel decent about that.

你看，我們不會對外分享這些數據。我們共享PLE。但如果你看看我們家擁有 Progressive 產品的預期壽命，就會發現這個數字相對穩定。所以我們對這件事感到滿意。

Now if you shop and you end up leaving us, we believe that is just adverse selection because we believe we have the most current up-to-date price, as Pat talked about and I talked about briefly. Our models are constantly changing and revising them to make them more specific to rate versus risk. And if you end up leaving, we believe that we have more data than wherever that customer is going to in terms of profitability.

如果您在購物後最終離開了我們，我們認為這只是逆向選擇，因為我們相信我們擁有最新的價格，正如 Pat 所說，我也簡單地談到過。我們的模型不斷變化和修訂，使其更能具體反映利率與風險之間的關係。即使您最終選擇離開，我們相信，就盈利能力而言，我們擁有的數據也比您離開的任何地方都要多。

Got it. That's helpful. And then going back to the capital discussion. I mean, M&A was something you didn't mention as much relative to like the buyback and variable dividend conversation. And just in light of that conversation you had on autonomous and potentially expanding into other products and so forth. I mean, how does M&A fit into that? How do you think about M&A over a little bit longer time period? And why wouldn't you use a really strong capital position now to explore that?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後我們再回到資本問題的討論上來。我的意思是，與股票回購和浮動股息等主題相比，你很少提及併購。鑑於您先前關於自主研發以及可能擴展到其他產品等方面的討論。我的意思是，併購在其中扮演什麼角色？您如何看待稍長一段時間內的併購活動？既然現在資金實力雄厚，為什麼不利用這一點去探索呢？

I mean M&A is really complicated. We've done a couple of acquisitions in the last 10 or so years, and they were very specific. So we bought ASI, which is now Progressive Home because we wanted that bundled customer and access to that customer, especially in the agency channel. We bought Protective a few years ago to increase our fleet capacity and we'll continue to kind of close the gap on that on the Commercial Lines part. But acquisitions can be tough and integrations can be tough.

我的意思是，併購真的很複雜。在過去的十年左右時間裡，我們進行過幾次收購，而且每次收購的目標都非常明確。所以我們收購了 ASI（現在是 Progressive Home），因為我們想要獲得捆綁式客戶和接觸這些客戶的機會，尤其是在代理商管道。幾年前我們收購了 Protective 公司，以增加我們的車隊容量，我們將繼續努力縮小我們在商業保險方面的差距。但收購和整合都可能很困難。

So we want to make sure it's the right company, the right culture and something that can be additive. So if we think we want to grow, and there's a company that has a bunch of private passenger auto that we believe we can get anyway, I'm not sure you want to pay the premium on that.

所以我們希望確保它是一家合適的公司，擁有合適的企業文化，並且能夠帶來正面的影響。所以，如果我們想發展壯大，而有一家公司擁有大量我們認為無論如何都能獲得的私人乘用車，我不確定你是否願意為此支付溢價。

That said, we have a group of corporate development group that's always scanning to look to see if something makes sense. And we always want to have dry powder in case something comes up. But again, that's something that I think every company does, including us in terms of just making sure we're on the growth trajectory. Do you want to -- John, do you want to reiterate sort of our capital structure and how we think about regulatory contingent in excess?

也就是說，我們有一個企業發展團隊，他們一直在密切關注，看看有沒有什麼可取之處。我們總是希望手邊有一些應急資金，以防萬一。但話說回來，我認為每家公司都會這樣做，包括我們自己，以確保我們走在成長的軌道上。約翰，你想重申我們的資本結構以及我們如何看待監管超額資金嗎？

Sure. So M&A would be one deployment of excess capital in our minds. Reinvesting capital in the core business is always the first option that we pursue is obviously our returns in that space have been very good. We also obviously considered previous discussions here, the dividend and buyback. And as Tricia noted earlier, as we believe the stock is below what we view as fair market.

當然。因此，在我們看來，併購是釋放剩餘資本的一種方式。將資金再投資於核心業務始終是我們首先考慮的選擇，顯然，我們在這一領域的收益一直非常好。我們當然也考慮了之前在這裡討論過的分紅和股票回購問題。正如特里西亞之前指出的那樣，我們認為該股票低於我們認為的合理市場價格。

We will be in market buying back shares when we have the capital to do so. And obviously, right now, our capital position is robust. So we -- as Tricia noted, we have a corporate development team. They are constantly looking at opportunities.

當我們擁有足夠的資金時，我們會在市場上回購股票。顯然，目前我們的資本狀況良好。正如特里西亞所指出的那樣，我們有一個企業發展團隊。他們一直在尋找機會。

And as she said, those opportunities would be focused on expanding the breadth of offerings for Progressive and less so around adding to our core products is our market share growth has shown pretty consistently that we can acquire that business efficiently and effectively in the marketplace, and we think that's a better way to go.

正如她所說，這些機會將集中在擴大 Progressive 的產品範圍，而不是增加我們的核心產品。我們的市佔率成長一直表明，我們可以在市場上有效率地獲得業務，我們認為這是更好的方法。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克爾，美國銀行。

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. A couple of things. I'm looking at the Travelers numbers and the Allstate numbers and Hartford's and I have some guesses around GEICO's numbers looking at what they've done. And it doesn't seem like they're growing very quickly as Progressive's on net policy count growth has decelerated.

是的，謝謝你回答我的問題。有幾件事。我正在查看 Travelers、Allstate 和 Hartford 的數據，根據 GEICO 的做法，我對他們的數據也有一些猜測。而且，隨著進步黨淨政策數量成長放緩，他們的成長速度似乎也不快。

I'm not looking for you to name names, maybe you have some thoughts on where the business is churning to, whether it's mutual, whether it's smaller competitors who are stronger than they've been in the past, whether it's direct business that's going to agencies. Where do you think the churn is moving towards?

我不是叫你指名道姓，也許你對業務的走向有一些想法，是雙方的競爭，還是規模較小的競爭對手比以前更強大，又或者是直接業務流向了代理機構。你認為這種人員流動會朝哪個方向發展？

Well, I think that -- and I won't talk specifically about competitors either, but there have been competitors that were all captive and now have access to a non-standard in the independent agent channel. There's competitors that were only direct that are trying to get into the agency channel.

嗯，我認為——我也不打算具體談論競爭對手，但確實有一些競爭對手以前都被束縛住了，現在他們可以透過獨立代理商管道獲得非標準的資源。有些競爭對手原本只做直銷，現在卻想打入代理通路。

We've always been broad. So that's really the beautiful part about our growth and trajectory, and that's an important part to make sure we are where customers are. And so I won't talk about where things are coming from. But again, I have to reiterate, our growth is substantial based on the best year in the history of Progressive. So much of that growth comes to us.

我們一直以來都涉獵廣泛。所以，這就是我們發展和軌跡中最美妙的部分，也是確保我們出現在客戶所在的地方的重要部分。所以，我不會談論事情的來龍去脈。但我還是要重申，基於 Progressive 公司歷史上業績最好的一年，我們的成長是巨大的。大部分成長都來自我們。

And so we feel great about that, and we'll continue to grow. And I think I've said this the last couple of calls that I want to make sure as we compare ourselves to the best year in the history of Progressive, that we're that were pragmatic about the fact that we still grew PIFs 4.2 million year-over-year, which is substantial, especially at the margins that we have. So that gives us the opportunity to continue to spur on growth, especially with our efficiency around our media spend.

因此我們對此感到非常滿意，並將繼續發展壯大。我想我在最近幾次電話會議中都說過，我想確保，當我們與 Progressive 歷史上最好的一年進行比較時，我們務實地認識到，我們仍然實現了 PIF 同比增長 420 萬美元，這是一個相當大的數字，尤其是在我們目前的利潤率下。因此，這給了我們繼續推動成長的機會，尤其是在媒體支出效率方面。

Thank you. And then changing gears a little bit and following up on some other questions. From 2007 to 2019, the dividend program at Progressive is pretty formulaic. We could play at home using gain share month-to-month to figure it out. And then I think in '19, you said there were so many opportunities for investment that you don't want to be forced into that paradigm and it became less possible for us to follow along.

謝謝。然後稍微轉換一下話題，回答一些其他問題。從 2007 年到 2019 年，Progressive 的分紅計畫相當固定。我們可以自己在家按月計算收益分成比例來解決這個問題。然後我覺得在 2019 年，您說過有很多投資機會，您不想被迫接受那種模式，所以我們越來越難跟上。

And now while you said when the stock is attractive to us, we would also be repurchasers of that, if that were the right thing to do. Is there any formula or way that investors can think about the transparency of capital return the way it was prior to the 2020 year?

現在，雖然您說過當股票對我們有吸引力時，如果這樣做是正確的，我們也會回購該股票。投資人能否透過某種公式或方法，像2020年以前那樣看待資本回報的透明度？

Probably not. That was pretty formulaic, and we were -- one of the reasons we changed that to go from the gain share was that we were experiencing high growth, and we needed that capital to grow. And so we didn't want to have something that we needed to pay out when the better use of that capital was to grow the firm, which is what we were doing over those years. But that program worked well during that time frame, but no longer served us.

可能不會。這套模式相當程式化，而我們之所以改變模式，從收益分成改為利潤分成，其中一個原因是我們當時正經歷高速成長，我們需要資金來實現成長。因此，我們不想把資金用於償還債務，因為更好的利用方式是發展公司，而這正是我們這些年來一直在做的事情。但那個方案在那段時間裡效果很好，但現在已經不再適合我們了。

I mean how you can think about it is we have a lot of capital right now. The Board will make a decision as we do in our 10b5-1 for stock buybacks. The Board will make a decision to make sure that we think about that and the best use of it and the best use of any capital returns to our shareholders.

我的意思是，你可以這樣想，我們現在有很多資金。董事會將按照我們在 10b5-1 中關於股票回購的規定做出決定。董事會將做出決定，確保我們考慮到這一點，以及如何最好地利用這些資金，以及如何最好地將資本回報回饋給我們的股東。

And I can't give you a formula because, again, we do want to have dry powder. We want to make sure that we thought of a bunch of contingencies. But I think that's -- and that's sort of what I tried to say in my letter is that we feel like we have excess capital at this juncture.

我無法給你一個配方，因為我們確實需要乾粉。我們希望確保我們已經考慮到了許多緊急應變計畫。但我認為——這也是我在信中試圖表達的意思——我們感覺目前我們擁有過剩的資本。

I might add a bit on that, Josh. So you all recognize our regulatory capital needs. So historically, we've been in the [3:1] range for our Personal Lines businesses -- Personal Auto business, excuse me, and about half that for home. You might have noted in the Q that we now have approval in a couple of key markets to move to [3.5:1] predominantly for our Personal Auto businesses, but a fairly broad approval so we can move operating leverage higher.

我可能還要補充一點，喬許。所以你們都了解我們的監理資本需求。所以從歷史上看，我們的個人保險業務（抱歉，是個人汽車保險業務）一直處於 [3:1] 的範圍內，而房屋保險業務則大約是這個數字的一半。您可能已經注意到，我們在幾個關鍵市場獲得了批准，可以將槓桿率提高到 [3.5:1]，主要針對我們的個人汽車業務，但批准範圍相當廣泛，因此我們可以提高營運槓桿率。

So you can do the math around what required surplus is necessary. And when we do that math, we look forward, of course, and we expect to grow. And then we have that contingency capital layer that doesn't change based on that regulatory layer, and that is intended to ensure that we, on a modeled basis, have a very low percentage chance of needing additional surplus.

所以你可以計算出所需的盈餘是多少。當然，當我們進行這樣的計算時，我們展望未來，並期望發展壯大。此外，我們還有緊急資本層，它不會根據監管層而改變，其目的是確保我們在模型基礎上需要額外盈餘的機率非常低。

Capital in excess of that, again, we first want to reinvest. But secondly, we look to dividends and buybacks to the extent we feel our stock is undervalued. But you can come to a pretty close estimate of what we consider capital in excess of regulatory and contingency and that would be the capital from which a variable dividend would come. Now what portion of that is up to ultimately the Board. But that is a good way to frame what a variable dividend or first excess capital would be, but secondly, what a variable dividend would be.

對於超出上述金額的資金，我們首先希望進行再投資。其次，如果我們認為股票被低估，我們會考慮分紅和股票回購。但是，您可以對我們認為超出監管和緊急資金的資本做出相當準確的估算，而這筆資本就是可變股息的來源。至於其中哪些部分最後由董事會決定，那就另當別論了。但這是一種很好的方式，可以解釋什麼是可變股息或第一個超額資本，其次，可以解釋什麼是可變股息。

Thank you for all the additional color.

感謝您增添的色彩。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝你，喬希。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

Good morning. Thank you for the call. I was hoping you could give us a little bit more thought on and information on the severity trends for auto, both the private passenger and Commercial Auto businesses. It looks like severity is accelerating a little bit in Personal Auto and a little bit more about why that may or may not be happening. And similarly, in Commercial Auto, you've got some peers who have had some pretty significant troubles in that line. Any thoughts on where you may or may not be experiencing similar trends for them?

早安.謝謝你的來電。我希望您能就汽車行業的嚴重程度趨勢，包括私家車和商用車行業，給我們一些更深入的思考和資訊。看起來個人汽車保險的嚴重程度似乎略有加劇，接下來我們將更多地探討造成這種情況的原因。同樣，在商用汽車領域，一些同行也遇到了一些相當嚴重的麻煩。您認為您是否也曾經遇到類似的趨勢？

Yeah, Paul, that's a good question. Just as a reminder, when we look at severity trends, we report out incurred and a lot of our competitors report out in paid. So as an example, when you look at our PD from quarter 3 '24 to '25, it appears to be about 7%. We had a large decrease in reserves in quarter 3 '24, about 2.5 points. So that would be about 4.5 points versus the 7.

是的，保羅，問得好。再次提醒一下，當我們查看嚴重程度趨勢時，我們會報告實際發生的損失，而我們的許多競爭對手會報告已支付的損失。例如，如果您查看我們從 2024 年第三季到 2025 年第三季的 PD，它似乎約為 7%。2024 年第三季度，我們的儲備金大幅下降，約 2.5 個百分點。所以比數大概是4.5比7。

So that's where it might be a little bit different comparison. BI continues to be specials are outpacing attorney rep, meds are up. So -- and actually some states that minimum limits have gone up. So we feel like industry severity where we're pretty close to the industry on the private passenger auto side.

所以，在這方面，兩者的比較可能略有不同。BI 繼續保持特殊業務成長速度，超過了律師代理業務的成長速度，藥品價格上漲。所以——實際上有些州的最低限額已經提高了。所以我們感覺，在私家乘用車領域，我們與產業整體情況非常接近。

On the commercial line side, I feel like we are in a better position than most of our competitors. We got ahead of rate. The severity is up. But again, same sort of thing with you've got high limits, you've got attorney reps. And -- but we feel good about where we're at from a margin perspective and our ability to grow perspective as well.

在商業產品線方面，我覺得我們比大多數競爭對手都更有優勢。我們提前完成了進度。嚴重程度加劇。但是，同樣的情況是，如果你有很高的限額，你就會聘請律師代表。而且——但我們對目前的利潤率和成長能力都感到滿意。

Maybe a second question and a different one. Could you talk a little bit about the level of telematics and whether or not we're getting to at least closer to a point where that is a more mature part of what it does in terms of usage and the ability to slice and dice?

或許可以問第二個問題，一個不同的問題。您能否談談遠端資訊處理技術的水平，以及我們是否正在接近一個更成熟的階段，使其在使用和資料分析能力方面更加完善？

Yeah. I mean telematics has always been a key part of us understanding. I threw out some specific data that we have on our OBD device, I think I did, at least on -- I guess maybe I didn't. It was on frequency. We know from our OBD device that vehicle miles traveled have been down to about 4% in the quarter.

是的。我的意思是，遠端資訊處理一直是我們理解的關鍵組成部分。我丟棄了一些我們 OBD 設備上的特定數據，我想我丟棄了，至少在某些方面——但我猜也許我沒有。頻率有問題。我們從車載診斷設備（OBD設備）得知，本季車輛行駛里程下降了約4%。

So those are kind of things we can point to as we try to dissect and attribute frequency and severity changes. It's -- we have our mobile device, which is the majority of what people choose now in 47 states. So we feel like it's a really powerful part of our variables.

所以，在嘗試剖析和歸因頻率和嚴重程度的變化時，我們可以指出這些面向。我們現在有行動裝置，這已成為美國 47 個州大多數人的選擇。因此，我們覺得它是我們變數中非常重要的一部分。

And more importantly, for customers that drive safely, it is really an ability to lower your insurance rates pretty substantially. And so that's really the main component of it. And we learn a lot. We have many, many, many miles. How many miles do we have now, do you think? Some billions -- yeah, lot of miles, a lot of data. And so it will continue to be a big part of it. I'm not sure if that answered your question.

更重要的是，對於安全駕駛的客戶來說，這確實能夠大幅降低保險費率。所以這才是它的主要組成。我們學到了很多。我們還有很長很長的路要走。你覺得我們現在還有多少英哩？數十億——是的，很多里程，很多數據。因此，它仍將是其中的重要組成部分。我不確定這是否回答了你的問題。

No, I was just trying to get a sense of whether or not we're getting to a point where the amount of folks that are using the telematics is where you can sort of a maximum given how a certain percentage will never use it, right? So just whether or not we're getting towards the maturity of the product itself.

不，我只是想了解一下，使用遠端資訊處理技術的人數是否已經達到一個極限，考慮到一定比例的人永遠不會使用它，對吧？所以問題就在於，我們是否正在走向產品本身的成熟。

I think we have an opportunity to increase that specifically on the agency channel is what I would say.

我認為我們有機會增加這方面的投入，尤其是在代理商管道上。

Yeah. What I would add to that is Telematics is a really predictive rating variable but it's not one size fits all. So we continue to collect data. We continue to innovate and we continue to refine how we use that data against what you would expect to see from similar drivers and similar vehicles to rate more accurately.

是的。我還要補充一點，遠端資訊處理是一個非常有預測性的評級變量，但它並不適用於所有情況。因此，我們將繼續收集數據。我們不斷創新，不斷改進我們如何利用這些數據，並將它們與您預期從類似駕駛員和類似車輛中看到的情況進行比較，以便更準確地進行評級。

So Telematics is a broad brush. And while we're seeing strong consumer adoption, and I think your intuition there is that consumers are getting more comfortable with monitoring on a continuous basis, which, as Tricia mentioned, is just a great way to modify their own behavior to control their insurance costs. But we are not standing still by any means. We have an entire team that leverages larger and larger data sets on a continuous basis to refine how accurately we can use it to ensure that people are getting the most competitive price that's personalized for them and how they drive.

所以，車載資訊系統是一個廣泛的概念。雖然我們看到消費者的接受度很高，而且我認為你的直覺也表明，消費者越來越習慣於持續監控，正如特里西亞提到的那樣，這正是改變自身行為以控制保險成本的好方法。但我們絕不會停滯不前。我們有一個團隊，他們不斷利用越來越大的數據集來改進我們使用數據的準確性，以確保人們能夠獲得最具競爭力的個人化價格，並根據他們的駕駛方式進行調整。

And one thing I'll mention, which is a little bit further field, but important because it's important for consumer safety is we have the ability for -- to understand that people have been in accidents. And whether the tow-truck or ambulance, I think is really a key important part of feeling like you're cared for as a customer with our Snapshot devices or mobile devices.

還有一點我要提一下，這有點離題了，但很重要，因為這關係到消費者的安全，那就是我們有能力──了解人們曾經發生過事故。無論是拖車還是救護車，我認為，對於使用我們 Snapshot 設備或行動裝置的客戶來說，感受到我們關心他們，這確實是一個關鍵且重要的環節。

Thank you. Appreciate the help very much.

謝謝。非常感謝您的幫忙。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor Fitzgerald.

Ryan Tunis，Cantor Fitzgerald。

Thanks. Good morning. I just had a follow-up on what's going on in Florida and I wanted to know if I'm thinking about something right. But clearly, that's been an important market for Progressive. I think you guys have top market share there by a mile. I guess my perception has always been an important reason for that is it's a tricky market to underwrite. But talking about the listing of some of the tort reforms, it sounds like it's become a more insurable market.

謝謝。早安.我剛剛了解了佛羅裡達州的情況，想知道我的想法是否正確。但很顯然，這對 Progressive 來說一直是一個重要的市場。我認為你們在那裡的市場份額遙遙領先。我認為我的看法一直是造成這種情況的一個重要原因，因為這是一個難以涵蓋的市場。但談到一些侵權法改革措施的清單，聽起來保險市場似乎變得更容易投保了。

So I guess my concern would be, just like any state where you have meaningful amounts of tort reform kind of creates a lever for competition to come in. So I'm wondering if I'm thinking about that right or if it's something maybe that's unique to Florida that we wouldn't necessarily see in some random state like Minnesota? Thanks.

所以我想說的是，就像任何一個州一樣，大量的侵權法改革會為競爭的進入創造槓桿作用。所以我想知道我的想法是否正確，或者這是否是佛羅裡達州特有的現象，我們在像明尼蘇達州這樣的其他州未必能看到？謝謝。

Yeah. I think every state has a little nuance, right? You said Minnesota, I went to their high PIP coverage. So I have like all of my thoughts of every state. I think the fact is that it will be more -- there will be more competition because of the tort reform.

是的。我認為每個州都有一些細微差別，對吧？你說的是明尼蘇達州，我去查了他們高額的個人傷害保障 (PIP) 保險覆蓋範圍。所以我腦子裡全是關於每個州的想法。我認為事實是，由於侵權法改革，競爭將會更加激烈。

I think that's good. But again, we are so well ahead of it because it's been our biggest state for a long time, and we feel really good about it, and we feel great about serving the consumers of Florida, and we want to grow there. So we're going to continue to grow and having the right rates and the right legislative changes is going to make that, I think, better for everybody, but most importantly, consumers.

我覺得這樣很好。但是，我們仍然遙遙領先，因為佛羅裡達州長期以來一直是我們最大的市場，我們對此感到非常自豪，我們很高興能夠為佛羅裡達州的消費者服務，我們也希望在那裡發展壯大。因此，我們將繼續發展，而合適的利率和正確的立法改革將使這一切對每個人都有好處，但最重要的是，對消費者而言。

Got it. I better shore up my knowledge on Minnesota, sorry about that, Tricia. But the follow-up is -- you mentioned in the 10-Q, there's this dynamic of customers replacing existing policies with new progressive policies. I was just curious if that had a meaningful impact on the new issued app number?

知道了。我得好好補補關於明尼蘇達州的知識了，對不起，特里西亞。但後續問題是——您在 10-Q 中提到——客戶正在用新的、更先進的保單替換現有的保單。我只是好奇這是否會對新發放的申請號碼產生實質影響？

Yeah, I think it does and had a meaningful on the PLE numbers because this is a very unusual dynamic that's been happening. And I think I've heard in other calls, it's happening in some of our competitors. So yeah, I don't have the specifics for you. But I think customers are super sensitive right now. We get it. We're doing our best to keep rates stable, lowering rates when it makes sense and we believe that we can grow in certain demographics. But I think it's meaningful kind of across the Board.

是的，我認為確實如此，並且對 PLE 數據產生了有意義的影響，因為這是一種非常不尋常的動態。而且我覺得我在其他電話會議中也聽過，我們的一些競爭對手也出現了這種情況。是的，我沒有具體細節可以提供給你。但我認為現在的顧客非常敏感。我們明白了。我們正在盡最大努力保持利率穩定，在合理的情況下降低利率，我們相信在某些人群中我們可以實現成長。但我認為這在各方面都具有重要意義。

Yeah. I think the ultimate metric, Ryan, is PIF growth. So yes, you're right. To the extent we are rewriting more customers. Those we do report as new customers. But at the end of the day, the PIF count and VIF count to previous conversations, I think, is what you should look at in terms of our growth and our market share.

是的。瑞恩，我認為最終的衡量標準是PIF成長。是的，你說得對。在某種程度上，我們正​​在為更多客戶重寫內容。我們會將這些客戶報告為新客戶。但歸根結底，我認為，根據先前的討論，PIF 計數和 VIF 計數是衡量我們成長和市場份額的關鍵。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I was hoping just to touch a little bit on pricing. And I was a little surprised the stable pricing that you put through in the third quarter, just given how strong the margins are even if we put in sort of like a normal catastrophe loss level for the auto business.

嘿，謝謝。早安.我原本只想稍微談定價問題。考慮到即使我們按照汽車行業正常的災難損失水平計算，利潤率仍然非常強勁，我對你們在第三季度實施的穩定定價策略感到有些驚訝。

Is this something that you guys are considering? Is there something on the horizon that would prevent you from doing this? It didn't sound like you were concerned really about tariffs. But just trying to get you just a sense for how you're thinking about potentially lowering price to accelerate growth and also improve retention.

你們有考慮過這件事嗎？是否存在什麼即將發生的事情會阻止你做這件事？聽起來你似乎不太擔心關稅問題。我只是想了解一下您是如何考慮透過降低價格來加速成長並提高客戶留存率的。

Yeah, we absolutely have been thinking about that. We were more conservative, I think, when the tariffs came out. And so now that, that seems today to be more certain, we are a little bit less concerned. Of course, that could change. I think we decreased rates in about 10 states in this quarter, increased rates in about 6. So we're very surgical on channel, product, state, but we do want to grow. And so we will look to that for both growth and retention in terms of reducing rates.

是的，我們確實一直在考慮這個問題。我認為，關稅政策出台時，我們的態度比較保守。既然現在看來這件事更確定了，我們也稍微放心了一些。當然，這種情況可能會改變。我認為本季我們在大約 10 個州降低了利率，在大約 6 個州提高了利率。所以我們在通路、產品和市場方面都非常注重精準定位，但我們確實想要發展壯大。因此，我們將著眼於透過降低費率來實現成長和客戶留存。

We just want to make sure because of the competitive environment that if we -- we get something for that. So that you don't want to reduce your margins and not get growth. So we're trying to be, like I said, really surgical in each state of when we think we can get growth and that unit growth is important. And so we know we have some margin to play with, and that's really what we're talking about now at every individual state and DMA level.

我們只是想確保，由於競爭環境，如果我們這樣做——我們能從中得到一些回報。所以你不想降低利潤率而無法成長。所以，就像我說的，我們努力在每個我們認為可以實現成長的階段都做到精準定位，而單位成長是很重要的。所以我們知道我們還有一些迴旋餘地，而這正是我們現在在每個州和DMA層面上真正要討論的。

Got it. Thank you. And then maybe sort of a higher-level question. Just as we think about the impact of collision avoidance systems and ADAS as it penetrates the fleet more and more. I don't think -- I'm sort of looking at ISO data. I think for 10 years up until 2019, industry frequency was pretty flat. And now when I sort of look since 2019, we obviously had COVID in there, but it's a pretty substantial decrease.

知道了。謝謝。然後或許可以問一個更高層次的問題。正如我們思考防碰撞系統和ADAS在車隊中日益普及所帶來的影響一樣。我不這麼認為——我好像在看 ISO 數據。我認為從 2019 年到現在的 10 年裡，產業頻率相當穩定。現在，當我回顧 2019 年以來的數據時，雖然期間出現了新冠疫情，但總體下降幅度相當大。

So I'm wondering if you can think of -- like just maybe just talk about unpacking some of that decline and improvement in frequency that looks like it's still continuing and sort of how we can think about that as impacting the longer-term growth of the business?

所以我想知道您是否可以考慮一下——例如，談談如何分析這種似乎仍在持續的頻率下降和回升現象，以及我們如何看待這會對業務的長期成長產生怎樣的影響？

Yeah. I can't predict the future, but take aways that kind of couple of years during COVID because things were so strange with driving. Frequency has been going down for the last 50 years. And as vehicles get safer, as laws around DUIs and other things get more stringent and have gotten more stringent, I think that's a really good thing.

是的。我無法預測未來，但新冠疫情期間的那幾年讓我印象深刻，因為那時開車的情況非常奇怪。過去50年裡，頻率一直在下降。隨著車輛安全性的提高，以及酒駕等相關法律法規的日益嚴格，我認為這是一件非常好的事情。

Now it's been offset and then some by severity. And that's been where when you look at the models, we have -- when we do our models for our runway, we look at that and severity has increased well more than frequency.

現在，由於嚴重程度的影響，這種情況已經得到抵消，甚至有所緩解。而當我們查看模型時，我們發現——當我們為我們的時裝秀製作模型時，我們發現嚴重程度的增加遠遠超過了發生頻率的增加。

And so we'll continue to see what happens in terms of parts, the ability to repair vehicles, the ability to have talent that can actually repair those vehicles as they get more complex, and those are things that we can't predict, but we look at those all the time, and we're deeply looking at those right now as we think about our next three year strategy.

因此，我們將繼續觀察零件供應、車輛維修能力以及能夠維修日益複雜的車輛的人才儲備等方面的情況，這些都是我們無法預測的，但我們一直在關注這些方面，而且在製定未來三年戰略時，我們正在深入研究這些方面。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

The number of cars on the road -- I'm sorry. I was just going to add that the number of cars on the road has also increased. The average age of those vehicles has increased. So all those factors, in addition to the pure premiums or the frequency and severity, affect the size of the marketplace. And the marketplace actually has grown faster than we had anticipated when we first started assessing the long-term runway or market size of the Personal Auto marketplace.

路上的車輛數量——很抱歉。我正要補充一點，路上的汽車數量也增加了。這些車輛的平均車齡增加。因此，除了純粹的保費或頻率和嚴重程度之外，所有這些因素都會影響市場規模。事實上，個人汽車市場的成長速度比我們最初評估其長期發展前景或市場規模時所預期的要快得多。

Got it. That's interesting. Yeah, it definitely feels like -- I mean, I think it's like '07 until 2019 industry frequency was flat. So like if we look at it over a 50-year time frame to this point, it's definitely still down, but like there is definitely an air pocket in there where the industry was benefiting from like flattish frequency. And so yeah, just something I'm sort of thinking about, but I appreciate the -- I appreciate the answers there. Thank you.

知道了。那很有意思。是的，感覺確實如此——我的意思是，我覺得從 2007 年到 2019 年，行業頻率一直很平穩。所以，如果我們從過去 50 年的時間跨度來看，它肯定仍然處於低迷狀態，但其中肯定存在一個相對平穩的頻率區間，在這個區間內，行業從中受益匪淺。所以，是的，這只是我正在思考的一件事，但我很感謝——我很感謝大家的回答。謝謝。

Thanks, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀集團。

Yes. Thanks. The first one, and this is I know it seems like it comes up every quarter, but on the PLE drop, can you talk maybe a little bit, is it mix driven this quarter that's kind of dropping everything? Or is it kind of across all the cohorts that you're seeing the drops in PLE?

是的。謝謝。第一個問題，我知道這個問題似乎每個季度都會被問到，但是關於 PLE 下降，您能稍微談談嗎？本季的下降是否是由產品組合變化引起的，導致所有產品都下降了？或者說，所有群體中 PLE 的下降趨勢都比較普遍？

I think it's probably more pronounced than Sams. I'm not quite sure, but I think it's mainly across the board. I think everyone's shopping. And when we look at our mix of business just in terms of even growth as you look through our Q and think about just our prospects and conversion, you can see that -- even though that's relating to consumers coming in, we think that has an impact. Do you have anything to add, Pat?

我覺得這可能比薩姆斯的情況更明顯。我不太確定，但我認為主要是普遍現象。我覺得大家都在購物。當我們審視我們業務的組合，僅從均衡成長的角度來看，當你查看我們的季度報告並考慮我們的前景和轉換率時，你會發現——即使這與消費者進店有關，我們也認為這會產生影響。派特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, it's pretty much across the board, but driven by different aspects and that Sams are obviously more price-sensitive and household costs are rising. On the Robinsons side, we certainly have taken some action to redistribute our book and to limit access to our property product at some agencies, which has an effect on where they place that business and whether it retains with us. So we are seeing it more broadly. But -- yeah, more broadly.

是的，這種情況幾乎普遍存在，但受不同因素驅動，而且山姆會員店的顧客顯然對價格更加敏感，家庭開支也在不斷上漲。就 Robinsons 而言，我們確實採取了一些措施來重新分配我們的產品，並限制某些代理商對我們房地產產品的訪問，這會影響他們將業務安排在哪裡以及是否繼續與我們合作。所以我們現在更廣泛地看到了這種情況。但是——是的，更廣泛地說。

Great. That's helpful. And just a second question, if I look at where your pure premium was in the third quarter, and granted, I understand it's calendar year, so it's not exact here. And versus average written premium per policy, there's a pretty meaningful kind of spread difference, which would imply some pretty meaningful margin compression here going forward, granted from very attractive margins you're seeing right now.

偉大的。那很有幫助。第二個問題，如果我看一下您第三季的純保費是多少，當然，我知道這是日曆年，所以這裡並不完全準確。與每份保單的平均已收保費相比，存在相當大的利差，這意味著未來利潤率將出現相當大的壓縮，儘管目前利潤率非常誘人。

As you think about kind of going forward and what you're looking at, is that something you're anticipating? Is that your margins will compress here in personal auto insurance going forward here closer to the target level?

當你思考未來發展方向以及你所關注的事物時，你是否對此有所預期？未來個人汽車保險業務的利潤率是否會向目標水準靠攏並進一步收窄？

I mean I think it depends on if we can get the growth for that. So our operating goal is to grow as fast as we can at a 96 or lower. We're obviously well in advance of that. We've had some conservativeness baked in because of tariffs and some other things. But yes, we could see it compress if we believe we can get that growth, and we're always kind of managing that trade-off. But I believe that's an accurate statement going forward because our ultimate measure of growth is units.

我的意思是，我認為這取決於我們能否實現相應的成長。因此，我們的營運目標是在 96 或更低的水平上盡可能快地成長。我們顯然已經遠遠領先於此。由於關稅和其他一些原因，我們天生就比較保守。但是，如果我們相信能夠實現成長，我們就可以看到它收縮，而我們一直在努力權衡這種利弊。但我認為，從長遠來看，這是一個準確的說法，因為我們衡量成長的最終標準是銷售量。

So PIFs and VIFs, as we talked about today, and we'll do what we can to continue that growth because, again, if we have a plan around our property, the more auto we can get in there, the more bundles we can get in sort of a nice circle. So we're going to do what we can to grow as long as it serves us in terms of our target profit margins and our operating goal that has been in place for decades.

所以，正如我們今天所討論的，PIF 和 VIF，我們將盡一切努力繼續增長，因為，再說一遍，如果我們圍繞我們的房產制定了一個計劃，我們能引進的汽車越多，我們就能獲得越多的捆綁銷售，形成一個良好的循環。所以，只要符合我們幾十年來一直堅持的目標利潤率和營運目標，我們就會盡一切可能成長。

Makes sense. Thanks for the answer.

有道理。謝謝你的回答。

We've exhausted our scheduled time. And so that concludes our event. Those left in the queue can direct their questions directly to me. Alissa, I will hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.

我們已經用完了預定時間。至此，我們的活動就結束了。排隊的人可以直接向我提問。艾莉莎，我會把電話轉回給你，讓你說結束語。

That concludes the Progressive Corporation's third quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.

Progressive Corporation 第三季投資人活動到此結束。未來一年內，有關本次活動重播的資訊將在 Progressive 網站的投資者關係版塊提供。您現在可以斷開連線了。