前進保險 (PGR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's first-quarter investor event.

早安，感謝您今天參加 Progressive 第一季投資人活動。

I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I'll be your moderator for today's event.

我是投資者關係總監 Doug Constantine，我將擔任今天活動的主持人。

The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its Annual Report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and a letter to shareholders which have been posted to the company's website.

除了在公司網站上發布的 10-K 表年度報告、10-Q 表季度報告和致股東的信中提供的評論外，公司不會對其業績發表任何詳細評論。

Although our quarterly Investor Relation events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's call for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.

雖然我們的季度投資者關係活動通常包括針對我們業務特定部分的演示，但我們將利用今天電話會議安排的 60 分鐘時間，由我們的首席執行官進行介紹性評論，並與我們的領導團隊成員進行問答環節。我們的執行長的開場白之前已經錄製好了。完成先前錄製的發言後，我們將利用本次活動剩餘的 60 分鐘時間與我們的領導團隊成員進行現場問答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2025 where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements, and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations sections of our website at investors.progressive.com.

與往常一樣，本次活動的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，並受許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際事件和結果與今天活動中討論的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告以及 2025 年第一季度的 10-Q 表補充報告，其中您將找到影響我們業務的風險因素的討論、與前瞻性陳述相關的安全港聲明以及有關我們面臨的挑戰的其他討論。這些文件可在我們網站 investors.progressive.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments.

今天首先，我很高興介紹我們的執行長 Tricia Griffith，她將為我們做一些介紹性的評論。

Tricia?

特里西亞？

Good morning and thank you for joining us today.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Since the pandemic started in March of 2020, we've hosted 20 investor relations calls, and the common theme of those calls has been how our business is weathering uncertain and unique macroeconomic environments.

自 2020 年 3 月疫情爆發以來，我們已經召開了 20 次投資者關係電話會議，這些電話會議的共同主題是我們的業務如何經受住不確定和獨特的宏觀經濟環境。

The last five years has thrown challenge after challenge to us and through it all, Progressive has not merely survived but thrived. Following a fantastic 2024, we just delivered one of our best quarters ever with near record margins coupled with record growth.

過去五年，我們面臨一個又一個的挑戰，然而，Progressive 不僅生存了下來，而且蓬勃發展。繼 2024 年取得輝煌成績之後，我們剛剛迎來了有史以來最好的一個季度，利潤率接近歷史最高水平，成長率也創下了歷史新高。

As more challenges arise, including in the form of the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, I feel very confident in Progressive's ability to face the issues head on. The momentum we had in 2024 carried us into 2025, and during the first quarter, we added new policies below our target acquisition costs and continued moving full speed ahead on growth with a focus on realizing our vision of becoming consumers, agents, and business owners, number one destination for insurance and other financial needs.

隨著越來越多的挑戰出現，包括關稅對宏觀經濟的影響，我對 Progressive 直面問題的能力充滿信心。我們在 2024 年取得的勢頭將我們帶入了 2025 年，在第一季度，我們以低於目標收購成本的價格增加了新保單，並繼續全速推進增長，重點是實現我們的願景，即成為消費者、代理商和企業主的首選保險和其他金融需求目的地。

Even though our competitors have reported improved profitability over the last couple of quarters, the shopping environment in personal auto has remained very favorable to Progressive. You may recall that the first quarter 2023 set the record for the most new personal auto applications of any other first quarter in our history.

儘管我們的競爭對手報告過去幾季獲利能力有所提高，但個人汽車購物環境對 Progressive 來說仍然非常有利。您可能還記得，2023 年第一季創下了我們歷史上任何第一季新增個人汽車申請數量最多的紀錄。

Well, I'm proud to say that the first quarter of 2025 personal auto new applications surpassed the previous record by over 20%, a result achieved because of both more quotes and a higher conversion of those quotes to a sale.

好吧，我很自豪地說，2025 年第一季個人汽車新申請量比之前的記錄高出 20% 以上，這一成績的取得得益於更多的報價以及這些報價轉化為銷售的更高轉化率。

More year over year quotes mean our customer acquisition machine is running efficiently and strong conversion in both channels suggests very good price competitiveness. Growth is not just happening in personal auto.

同比報價的增加意味著我們的客戶獲取機器正在高效運行，並且兩個管道的強勁轉換率表明價格競爭力非常好。成長不僅發生在個人汽車領域。

In property, we increased homeowners policies enforced in the less volatile states and reduced policies enforced in the more volatile states. We're also continuing to significantly grow our renters' business. In commercial lines, although the trucking space continues to be challenging, core commercial auto new applications are up 8% year over year, and our business auto and contractor BMTs experience significant growth in new applications.

在房地產方面，我們增加了在動盪較小的州執行的房屋保險政策，並減少了在動盪較大的州執行的保險政策。我們也將繼續大幅發展我們的租賃業務。在商業領域，儘管卡車運輸領域仍充滿挑戰，但核心商用汽車新應用年增 8%，我們的商業汽車和承包商 BMT 在新應用方面也經歷了顯著成長。

In addition to growth, our personal auto and property products, as well as commercial lines have year-to-date combined ratios below 90, a significant achievement considering the industry's challenges in property and commercial auto.

除了成長之外，我們的個人汽車和房地產產品以及商業險種年初至今的綜合比率均低於 90，考慮到該行業在房地產和商用汽車領域面臨的挑戰，這是一項重大成就。

Despite the significant turmoil in financial markets in recent weeks as investors react to tariff and other news, I'm pleased to report that our balance sheet has remained strong. At quarter end, common equities were only 4% of our total portfolio, and thus far, it has been largely insulated from stock market volatility.

儘管最近幾週由於投資者對關稅和其他新聞的反應導致金融市場嚴重動盪，但我很高興地報告，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。截至本季末，普通股僅占我們總投資組合的 4%，到目前為止，它基本上不受股市波動的影響。

Additionally, we've been generating capital at a brisk pace, both from strong underwriting profitability and investment returns. For the quarter, our investment portfolio generated investment income that was 32% greater than the first quarter last year and averaged over $270 million a month year-to-date.

此外，我們也透過強勁的承保獲利能力和投資回報快速創造資本。本季度，我們的投資組合產生的投資收益比去年第一季成長了 32%，年初至今每月平均超過 2.7 億美元。

We're still in the early days of the tariffs and the effects may not be known until sometime in the future. The interconnectedness of global trade makes it even more difficult to predict where and how quickly the impact of tariffs will work their way through supply chains, and ultimately our lost costs.

我們仍處於關稅實施的初期，其影響可能要等到未來的某個時候才能知道。全球貿易的相互連結使得我們更難預測關稅的影響將在何處、以多快的速度透過供應鏈發揮作用，最終導致我們的成本損失。

Determining our rate levels is a prospective exercise where we try to predict future loss trends and other costs to be able to set appropriate rates to achieve our underwriting profitability goal. Since late 2024, our talented team of pricers, modelers, analysts, and actuaries have been modeling various scenarios to allow us to assess the impact of potential tariffs on our business to help us to be prepared to react as quickly as possible.

確定我們的費率水準是一項前瞻性的工作，我們試圖預測未來的損失趨勢和其他成本，以便能夠設定適當的費率來實現我們的承保獲利目標。自 2024 年底以來，我們才華橫溢的定價員、建模師、分析師和精算師團隊一直在對各種情境進行建模，以便我們評估潛在關稅對我們業務的影響，幫助我們準備好盡快做出反應。

In our fourth quarter 2021 IR call, we talked about our ability to gather data quickly, process it effectively, and react to it decisively. I believe we're better at this than anyone else in the industry, and proof of this is that over the last 20 years, periods of macroeconomic turmoil have often directly coincided with Progressive's most successful periods.

在 2021 年第四季的 IR 電話會議上，我們討論了快速收集數據、有效處理數據以及果斷做出反應的能力。我相信我們在這方面比業內任何其他人都要好，證明就是在過去 20 年裡，宏觀經濟動盪時期往往與 Progressive 最成功的時期相吻合。

More recently, the inflationary environment of 2021 through 2023 proved that we were able to manage through rapid, unpredictable increases in lost costs and manage our calendar year combined ratio. I think that we have the tools, systems, and most importantly, the people to react quickly and effectively during times of market disruption.

最近，2021 年至 2023 年的通膨環境證明，我們能夠應對損失成本的快速、不可預測的增長，並控制我們的日曆年綜合比率。我認為我們擁有工具、系統，最重要的是，我們擁有在市場混亂時期能夠迅速有效地做出反應的人才。

While I can't know what the future holds, I believe the odds are strongly in favor of Progressive to once again manage through whatever lies ahead better than anyone else in the industry.

雖然我不知道未來會發生什麼，但我相信 Progressive 很有可能再次比業內任何其他公司更好地應對未來的挑戰。

Thank you again for joining us today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。

And I will now take your questions.

現在我將回答大家的提問。

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event.

今天活動的先前錄製部分到此結束。

We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions.

我們的管理團隊成員現在可現場解答問題。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

My first question is on auto rates. So obviously auto profitability has been pretty incredible, well ahead of your targeted 96%. Now taking tariff uncertainties into consideration, do you plan to keep rate -- do you plan to take rate decreases in order to accelerate growth, or do you think that it's better just to keep rates static to maintain the current earnings profile? Curious on your thoughts on this.

我的第一個問題是關於汽車費率的。因此，顯然汽車產業的獲利能力相當驚人，遠遠超出了你所設定的 96% 的目標。現在考慮到關稅的不確定性，您是否計劃保持利率——您是否計劃降低利率以加速增長，或者您認為最好保持利率不變以維持當前的盈利狀況？好奇你對此的想法。

Well, as we look state by state, product by product, and we look at rates. And in fact, the last quarter we took about 12 state rates up and 12 state rates down, but mainly flat. So we're going to do all we can to continue the growth engine, and so we monitor that at a very granular level.

好吧，我們逐個州、逐個產品地查看，並查看費率。事實上，上個季度我們大約上調了 12 個州的利率，下調了 12 個州的利率，但基本上持平。因此，我們將竭盡全力保持成長引擎，並且我們將在非常細緻的層面上對此進行監控。

Obviously, we're sitting on some nice margin with an 86 combined ratio in the first quarter and with the unknowns around tariffs. We obviously have to think about that for the future, but we are business as usual trying to make sure we grow as fast as we can.

顯然，我們擁有不錯的利潤率，第一季的綜合比率為 86，而且關稅方面也存在未知數。我們顯然必須為未來考慮這個問題，但我們會照常營業，努力確保我們盡可能快速地發展。

And that means in some states, taking rates up a little bit and some rates taking them down a little bit. I think the good thing is that we are back to where we we wanted to be in terms of what we call small bites of the apple. We know that our insured like stable rates, we're going to do our best to keep it that way, but also continue with our growth engine.

這意味著在某些州，利率會略有上升，而在某些州，利率會略有下降。我認為好消息是，就所謂的「小口吃蘋果」而言，我們又回到了我們想要的狀態。我們知道我們的被保險人喜歡穩定的費率，我們將盡最大努力保持這種狀態，同時也繼續我們的成長引擎。

My second question is on advertising, right? You significantly ramped up your ad spending for the quarter. If we think about the three major advertising channels TV, digital, radio, and I can't believe I'm saying radio, but like where Is the most ad spending growth should come from going forward?

我的第二個問題是關於廣告的，對嗎？您大幅增加了本季的廣告支出。如果我們考慮三大廣告管道：電視、數位、廣播，我不敢相信我會說廣播，但未來最大的廣告支出成長應該來自哪裡？

Is there any specific ad channel that you think might be overly saturated and spending there might not be worth the dollars? Just curious of your view on advertising spending as well as a competitive environment there.

您認為是否有某個特定的廣告管道可能已經過度飽和，而在該管道上投入的資金可能不值得？只是好奇您對廣告支出以及競爭環境的看法。

Yeah. We always look at that. We have, several business reviews a year, but one big one where we talk about all the different ways with which we want to spend. Clearly digital has been, up in the last several years because that makes sense where people go, you said that about radio, but works.

是的。我們總是關注這一點。我們每年都會進行幾次業務回顧，但其中一次重要的回顧會討論我們希望採用的所有不同支出方式。顯然，數位化在過去幾年中一直在發展，因為這對人們去的地方來說是有意義的，就像您所說的關於廣播的一樣，但它是有效的。

So we look at everything. In fact, the funny thing you say is every time we have a business review I talk about direct mail, but if it works and it's efficient, we use it. So we look at all of that and we are not going to spend $1 more than we think we should to acquire new business.

因此我們審視一切。事實上，您說的有趣的事情是，每次我們進行業務評估時，我都會談論直郵，但如果它有效且高效，我們就會使用它。因此，我們考慮了所有這些因素，並決定不會在獲取新業務上多花 1 美元。

I'll be looking for the Progressive mail in my mailbox.

我會在我的郵箱中找到 Progressive 的郵件。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

First question I had for you was on new business penalty. I was just hoping you guys could talk about the impact of the new business penalty today and personal auto and the magnitude of if that magnitude of that penalty has has kind of changed over time and I'm curious because it seems almost indistinguishable in the in the results at current combined ratios or maybe it's being masked by mix shift or something else.

我要問您的第一個問題是關於新業務罰款。我只是希望你們能談談今天新的商業處罰和個人汽車處罰的影響，以及處罰的幅度是否隨著時間的推移而發生變化，我很好奇，因為在當前綜合比率的結果中似乎幾乎無法區分，或者可能被混合轉變或其他因素掩蓋了。

Yeah. I mean, I think we definitely when we reopened for business, or I should say when we we sort of tightened up for business, we did see an increase in the preferred market, but and I'll let Pat talk about this a little bit if he wants to.

是的。我的意思是，我認為當我們重新開業時，或者應該說當我們收緊業務時，我們確實看到了優先市場的增長，但是，如果帕特願意的話，我會讓他談談這個問題。

But I feel like, we're always going to have the new business sort of penalty, quote unquote on the direct side because of the way we expense our. Business and our advertising up front so that that first term is going to look much differently than the terms after that but I feel like we're in a different position here and a lot of that I think is based on the size we are. Do you want to add anything, Pat?

但我覺得，由於我們的費用支出方式，總是會受到新業務方面的直接懲罰。我們的業務和廣告都是預先制定的，因此第一個條款與之後的條款會有很大不同，但我覺得我們在這裡處於不同的位置，我認為這在很大程度上取決於我們的規模。帕特，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

Yeah. The only thing I'd add is, first quarter is typically a strong growth quarter for us and baked into our acquisition costs is the lifetime expense to bring policy on board. So we are continuing to price to our lifetime cost and yeah, when you grow quickly, there's a slightly higher combined ratio due to the expensing of that expense, but on a quarter over quarter basis it's not materially different, I don't think, than sort of what we've seen in the past when we've grown new apps 30% in a quarter.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，第一季通常是我們成長強勁的季度，而將政策實施的終身費用計入了我們的收購成本中。因此，我們將繼續根據終身成本定價，是的，當你快速增長時，由於費用支出，綜合比率會略高，但按季度計算，我認為與我們過去在一個季度內新應用增長 30% 時看到的情況相比，並沒有實質性的差異。

The second one I had for you was on, policy life expectancy. You mentioned the strong growth in the quarter, and that was despite policy life expectancy a little bit lighter versus last time you reported it. Is that just more reflective of the increased, shopping environment and that's more of an industry dynamic, or is that being driven by something else?

我想問的第二個問題是關於保單預期壽命。您提到本季度實現了強勁增長，儘管與上次報告相比，保單預期壽命略有縮短。這是否更反映了購物環境的改善和行業動態，還是由其他因素驅動？

Yeah. That's definitely part of it, Rob.

是的。這絕對是其中的一部分，羅布。

What I would say is that, PLALE is pretty complex and there's a lot of things that can affect it. What I would say, here's a couple of inputs as we've sort of decomed it when we were closing when we needed to get rate in and we kind of tightened up, especially our underwriting appetite that affected PeLE from a positive perspective.

我想說的是，PLALE 非常複雜，有很多因素會影響它。我想說的是，這裡有一些輸入，因為當我們關閉時，我們需要獲得利率，我們有點收緊了它，特別是我們的承保意願，從積極的角度影響了 PeLE。

Now we've opened up for business, which means our mix has shifted back to. Sort of what our normal mix would be. So think of Sams that are inconsistently insured. Now I will tell you we know Sam's, we know how to make money on Sam.

現在我們已經開始營業，這意味著我們的業務組合已經恢復。有點像我們正常的混合。因此，請考慮一下那些保險不一致的 Sam。現在我告訴你我們了解 Sam，我們知道如何利用 Sam 賺錢。

So we want all the samms we can get as long as they meet our target profit margins. So you know this is our roots of growing up a non-standard company. So that mixed shift is part of it, I think with the shopping environment there's a lot of pressure on renewals, and that means people are shopping, which makes sense and I think it's important for people to to find the right rate and prices are very competitive, which also means our insured, could contemplate shopping.

因此，只要滿足我們的目標利潤率，我們就想獲得所有能夠獲得的 sam。所以你知道這是我們成長為非標準公司的根源。因此，混合轉變是其中的一部分，我認為在購物環境下，續保壓力很大，這意味著人們正在購物，這是有道理的，我認為對人們來說找到合適的價格和價格非常有競爭力是很重要的，這也意味著我們的被保險人可以考慮購物。

So if our insured shop and we are talking to them and doing a policy review, we have a team called our customer preservation team. We can walk through changes that might make sense for them, maybe build plans, maybe deductibles, and as long as it's economically, makes sense for both us and the insured. Then we'll rewrite that, which kind of starts the clock ticking over. I think that's an important piece.

因此，如果我們的投保商店和我們正在與他們交談並進行保單審查，我們將擁有一個名為客戶保護團隊的團隊。我們可以進行一些對他們來說可能有意義的改變，也許是製定計劃，也許是免賠額，只要從經濟角度來看，對我們和被保險人來說都是有意義的。然後我們將重寫它，這樣時鐘就會開始滴答作響。我認為這是一個重要的部分。

There's a lot of noise in the policy life expectancy, not that not that it's not important. We want it to turn and we think it's very important. When we look at our sort of internal measure of our household life expectancy, that is showing a lot of improvement.

關於保單壽命存在著許多爭議，但這並不意味著它不重要。我們希望它能夠轉變，我們認為這非常重要。當我們觀察家庭預期壽命的內部衡量標準時，我們發現家庭預期壽命有了很大的改善。

And so we feel good about that, I think in the end what I would draw you to is our growth, the fact that we grew 5 millions compared to this time last year at an 18% growth rate. So I feel really good about our growth. We're going to continue to concentrate on policy life expectancy, continue to concentrate on making sure that we are obsessive with our customer service both on the CRM side and the claim side and have competitive prices, and that's the most important thing we can do.

因此我們對此感到滿意，我認為最終我要吸引你們的是我們的成長，與去年同期相比，我們的用戶成長了 500 萬，成長率為 18%。所以我對我們的成長感到非常高興。我們將繼續專注於保單壽命，繼續專注於確保我們在 CRM 方面和索賠方面都注重客戶服務，並擁有有競爭力的價格，這是我們能做的最重要的事情。

But yeah, you're right, a lot of it is based on the shopping environment that we're in right now.

但是，是的，你是對的，這在很大程度上取決於我們現在所處的購物環境。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

My questions are on auto loss costs. In the, letter, you point out that a part of the frequency decreases are due to mix towards the more preferred customer base. I'm curious. You don't call out severity being higher due to that that next shift as well. Do more preferred customers not have higher kind of, I thought, just more expensive cars and higher limits with more severity or am I'm not thinking about that correctly?

我的問題是關於汽車損失成本。在信中，您指出頻率的減少部分是由於混合了更受歡迎的客戶群。我很好奇。您不會因為下一次輪班的緣故而大聲喊出嚴重程度會更高。我認為，更優先的客戶是否不能享受更高級別的待遇，只是更昂貴的汽車和更高的限額以及更嚴重的後果，還是我沒有正確考慮這一點？

No, I think you're thinking about that right in terms of severity and more coverage. I don't necessarily expensive cars, but you have more coverage.

不，我認為您從嚴重性和更多覆蓋範圍的角度考慮這個問題是正確的。我不一定有昂貴的車，但你有更多的保障。

What I would say, let's go back to frequency. What I would say with frequency is as we sort of decomp that, there's a little bit of noise and of course it's it's a quarterly data, but when we look at frequency, we would look at a couple of different things like that that would affect it.

我想說的是，讓我們回到頻率的話題。我想說的是，當我們對頻率進行分解時，會有一些噪音，當然它是季度數據，但是當我們查看頻率時，我們會看到一些會影響它的不同因素。

And that would be both what you talked about from a preferred mix which would decrease frequency, but also a couple of things that increased frequency from our perspective some growth, weather, and our calendar year we went to a Gregorian calendar that we equated to about a point of frequency.

這既是您所說的從優選組合角度來看會降低頻率的因素，也是從我們的角度來看會增加頻率的幾個因素，例如增長、天氣，以及我們採用公曆的年份，我們將其等同於頻率點。

So that would be more in line with our trailing 12 frequency decline of about 3.5% to 4%. So we do see that a little bit differently. Interesting, and this would be something to watch. Our OBD data from our from our usage-based insurance, the dongle in the car, showed for the first time since 2019.

因此，這與我們過去 12 個月約 3.5% 至 4% 的頻率下降更為一致。所以我們對此確實有一點不同的看法。有趣，這是值得一看的東西。我們的基於使用情況的保險（汽車中的加密狗）中的 OBD 數據自 2019 年以來首次顯示。

So take away 2020 because a lot of people were driving since 2019, that vehicle miles traveled decreased, especially in trips that were over 100 miles. I think that's an interesting one day. A point for one quarter economically to look at from severity, I feel like we're, right in line with competitors on severity. If you look at our collision, it looks higher based on some sub and salvage recoveries that were very high in Q1 of 24. So if you take that out, it's about 2% gross recovery. So I would say the collision is in line with our PD on the severity piece.

因此，由於許多人從 2019 年開始開車，所以剔除 2020 年，車輛行駛里程減少了，尤其是超過 100 英里的行程。我認為那是有趣的一天。從嚴重程度來看一個季度的經濟狀況，我覺得我們的嚴重程度與競爭對手一致。如果你看一下我們的碰撞，根據 24 年第一季的一些潛艇和打撈物的回收率來看，它看起來更高。因此，如果去掉這些，總回收率約為 2%。所以我想說，這次碰撞的嚴重程度符合我們的 PD。

I guess just a follow up on severity. You may have kind of answered it now, but if we think about the very long term severity trend, I think it's low to mid singles, and do you got the progressive kind of have a view of kind of new normal glide path is about the same, over time, or do you think it's a bit higher due to a lawsuit inflation or just mix shift or just curious to give any kind of long-term views on severity.

我猜只是對嚴重程度進行跟踪。您現在可能已經回答了這個問題，但如果我們考慮長期的嚴重程度趨勢，我認為它是低到中等的單打，並且您是否有一種漸進的看法，認為新的正常下滑路徑隨著時間的推移大致相同，或者您是否認為由於訴訟通脹或混合轉變而略高，或者只是好奇地對嚴重程度給出任何長期看法。

We talk about it a lot and obviously we react to the data as it comes in and there's been so much volatility over the last five years that we've really had to react to it, especially with inflation. I would have never predicted that would have happened, but again, we reacted to that. Tariffs will be another, sort of unknown, but we'll react to that and react.

我們對此進行了大量討論，顯然我們會對數據做出反應，過去五年來波動很大，我們確實必須對此做出反應，尤其是通貨膨脹。我從未預料到會發生這樣的事，但我們再次對此做出了反應。關稅將是另一個未知因素，但我們會對此作出反應。

That quickly should we need to, I think the one place where we've seen severity increase across the industry is more on the bodily injury side with, just inflation, more attorney reps, higher medical bills, sort of the social inflation that we talk about a lot.

那麼，如果我們需要的話，我認為我們看到整個行業嚴重程度增加的一個地方更多的是在人身傷害方面，只是通貨膨脹，更多的律師代表，更高的醫療費用，有點像我們經常談論的社會通貨膨脹。

And so we try to build that into our models as we think about the future as well.

因此，我們在思考未來時也嘗試將其融入我們的模型中。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

I wanted to see if you could dig a little bit more into the potential impact from tariffs, just to kind of frame for us how much that, may or may not, ultimately increase loss cost trend and if you could particularly touch on on how you're viewing auto parts and just repair costs in general.

我想看看您是否可以更深入地探討一下關稅的潛在影響，以便我們大致了解一下關稅最終可能會或可能不會增加多少損失成本趨勢，以及您是否可以特別談談您如何看待汽車零件和一般維修成本。

Yeah, absolutely, and this will probably be a longer answer to the question, but I wanted to give, I want to give you an insight of kind of how we're looking at the complexity of tariffs at such a granular level and so stick with me. So I talked in February about, tariffs are inflationary and they're one sided to lost costs and we care deeply about trying to understand the impact on our book of business.

是的，絕對如此，這可能是對這個問題的一個更長的回答，但我想給你一些見解，讓我們了解一下我們如何在如此細微的層面上看待關稅的複雜性，所以請繼續聽我說。因此，我在二月談到，關稅會導致通貨膨脹，並且會造成成本損失，我們非常關心如何了解其對我們業務的影響。

Oddly, last Monday I spent an hour with our national auto pricing manager. We went over the inputs and the outputs to the tariffs and had a great conversation. The work is extremely well done. And then Tuesday the White House said they would soften some of the tariffs.

奇怪的是，上週一我與我們的全國汽車定價經理共度了一個小時。我們討論了關稅的投入和產出，並進行了愉快的交談。工作完成得非常出色。週二，白宮表示將放寬部分關稅。

So it changed things in terms of stacking the steel and aluminum with the imported vehicles, as well as some rebates on foreign parts that are assembled in the US So that immediately changed some of the dynamics with what we were working on.

因此，它改變了進口車輛的鋼鐵和鋁的堆疊情況，以及對在美國組裝的外國零件的一些回扣，因此這立即改變了我們正在進行的一些工作。

So we take, a bunch of raw data, so think of probability. Of occurrence, which is very high at this juncture, start date, market lag time to, full effect in the tariff rate and then we take some components. So clearly USMCA compliance is a big one price umbrella parts sourcing, per coverage cost decom. So that is just a handful of some of them of the inputs that we put into our model.

因此，我們取得一堆原始數據，然後考慮機率。在這個關鍵時刻，發生率非常高，開始日期，市場滯後時間，關稅稅率的全面影響，然後我們採取一些組成部分。因此，顯然，遵守 USMCA 是一項重要的成本削減措施，涉及每個保險範圍的零件採購、成本分解和價格保護傘部件採購。這只是我們放入模型中的一小部分輸入。

Then we ran our entire fleet through the USMCA compliance to understand each vehicle and what we think the cost could come to. So let me walk you through a couple of examples. I won't give you the exact car, but car A basically assembled outside the US 1% USanada content. The rest is German and from Poland and a couple other countries. So it's not.

然後，我們對整個車隊進行了 USMCA 合規性檢查，以了解每輛車以及我們認為可能的成本。那麼讓我來跟你講幾個例子。我不會給你確切的汽車，但汽車 A 基本上在美國境外組裝，1% 的 USanada 內容。其餘的則是德國人、波蘭人和其他幾個國家的人。所以不是。

Compliant. So quick math on that is that 99% of that value should be tariffs. So we know that for that car.

符合。因此，簡單的計算就是，其中 99% 的價值應該是關稅。所以我們知道那輛車的情況。

Vehicle B, a little bit different assembled in the United States, 50% US Canadian content, 25% Mexican content. So it is USMCA compliant. So as of last Monday, it would have been 25% eligible to be tariffed as of Tuesday, that first. 15% was eligible for the rebate, so the effective tariff rate is 10%. So that's how surgical we're getting with our models, and it's a moving target, but we have to be nimble, and I think.what the big thing here is that the key is we've got to recognize as soon as possible when we see the data and take action accordingly.

車輛 B，稍有不同，在美國組裝，50% 美國加拿大成分，25% 墨西哥成分。因此它符合 USMCA 規定。因此，從上週一開始，有資格被徵收關稅的商品比例為 25%，而從週二開始，有資格獲得退稅的商品比例為 15%，因此實際關稅稅率為 10%。這就是我們利用模型進行手術的方式，這是一個移動的目標，但我們必須靈活，我認為，這裡最重要的是，我們必須在看到數據時盡快識別並採取相應的行動。

I do have to take a moment to shout out a couple of people. We have many people working on this, but a couple of people from our pricing team that have done an incredible job, Brad and Bruce and Wenha and Nick from our economics team. They've been working feverishly as things evolve and so we will be ready for whatever comes our way, but we have put a lot of thought and a lot of modeling into this and a lot of scenario planning. So I believe we're as prepared as anyone.

我確實需要花點時間向幾個人喊一聲。我們有很多人致力於此，但我們定價團隊中的一些人做得非常出色，他們是經濟團隊中的布拉德 (Brad)、布魯斯 (Bruce) 和溫哈 (Wenha) 和尼克 (Nick)。隨著事態的發展，他們一直在緊張地工作，因此我們將為遇到的任何事情做好準備，但我們對此進行了大量的思考、大量的建模和大量的情景規劃。所以我相信我們已經做好了和其他人一樣的準備。

Next one I have for you is on, disruption and, certain states around homeowners markets and how it may benefit or detract from PIP growth, and I was hoping maybe you could talk about Florida and just sort of the healing process and homeowners and and the impact that that is having on PI there, and sort of the opposite in in California where, it looks like things may get more difficult.

接下來我想問的是，某些州的房主市場混亂，以及它如何有利於或不利於 PIP 的增長，我希望您能談談佛羅裡達州的情況，談談那裡的恢復過程和房主，以及這對那裡的 PI 產生的影響，加利福尼亞州的情況則相反，情況似乎會變得更加困難。

Yeah. And so I gave you a little bit of the sort of 5 point plan for the blueprint for the future. We feel really good about where we're at, especially on the combined ratio side. We are a sub 90 and Q1 in property, growing a lot in renters, and obviously we're taking our time to grow because we want to do this in the right way, and John and his team have done a fabulous job with that. Florida. We're still in the midst of non-renewing the 115,000 policies that we talked about a few years ago.

是的。因此，我向你們提供了未來藍圖的 5 點計畫。我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意，特別是在綜合比率方面。我們的房地產業務處於 90 歲以下和 Q1 水平，租戶數量增長迅速，顯然我們正在花時間發展，因為我們想以正確的方式做到這一點，而約翰和他的團隊在這方面做得非常出色。佛羅裡達。我們仍然處於不續簽幾年前談到的 115,000 項政策的過程中。

It's been a little bit more time consuming just because of moratoriums, but we will send out our last notifications by this May, so we're feeling we're in a much better position in Florida. We have very little market share in California, and so that will be a place where I will tiptoe in, but I would say. That where we stand today with more bundling with cost sharing, with exiting our DP3 program, with our agent incentives, we feel like we are in a much different position and we're going to, be able to open up the growth machine in areas where we think it's beneficial and where we get those bundled.

由於暫停令，這需要花費更多時間，但我們將在今年 5 月之前發出最後的通知，因此我們感覺我們在佛羅裡達州的處境要好得多。我們在加州的市佔率很小，因此我將小心翼翼地進入這個市場，但我想說。我們今天所處的階段是，透過更多的捆綁和成本分攤，透過退出我們的 DP3 計劃，透過我們的代理商激勵，我們感覺我們處在一個非常不同的位置，我們將能夠在我們認為有益的領域和我們進行捆綁的領域開啟成長機器。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

My first question, I guess it's just, a hypothetical based on tariffs, if there's a state that's operating in a, mid to high 80s combined ratio and like, we're assuming right tariffs have a, mid single digit impact on, severity all else equal, you know how would you guys look to respond in. In that state, would you or could you get rate approval given right that that's a, pretty high level of profitability.

我的第一個問題是，我想這只是一個基於關稅的假設，如果某個州的綜合成本率在 80 年代中期到後期，並且我們假設正確的關稅對其他所有因素的嚴重程度產生中等個位數的影響，您知道你們將如何應對。在那種狀態下，考慮到盈利水平相當高，您是否能夠獲得利率批准？

That's a great question, Elise.

這是一個很好的問題，Elise。

I think, one of the things that I did mention is we also have, reached out to a couple of insurance departments because I think because our models are so granular and so refined, we want to make sure that they understand and can contemplate that for for each state. Here's what I would say is, we make a lot of decisions based on combined ratio, but is that state growing? Is it not growing? How can so to me if there's a state in the mid 80s and there's not growth, I would say that, we could pressure test that to grow a little bit, but obviously we have tariffs in the back of our mind and we know that is something we'll have to react to and we'll have to react to it differently in different states depending on where that combined ratio falls.

我認為，我提到的一件事是，我們也聯繫了幾個保險部門，因為我認為我們的模型非常細緻和精細，我們希望確保他們理解並能夠考慮到每個州的情況。我想說的是，我們根據綜合比率做出了很多決定，但這個狀態在成長嗎？它不是在成長嗎？如果某個州的稅率在 80 年代中期沒有成長，那麼對我來說這怎麼可能呢？我想說，我們可以對其進行壓力測試，使其稍微增長一點，但顯然我們心裡有關稅的問題，我們知道這是我們必須應對的事情，而且我們必鬚根據綜合比率在不同的州採取不同的應對措施。

And then my second question, I was just interested, if you could just, provide, kind of just some color on just the monthly cadence, of of your retention as you guys have been, putting on new business and the industry, it's obviously been getting more competitive with looking to grow as well, any color just as you think about monthly retention levels that you can provide.

然後我的第二個問題是，我只是感興趣，如果你可以提供一些關於每月保留節奏的詳細信息，隨著你們開展新業務和行業，它顯然變得越來越具有競爭力，也在尋求增長，正如您考慮可以提供的每月保留水平一樣。

Yeah, I mean, I talked a little bit about that before, we publicly talk about trailing 3 and trailing 12. I never like to see retention decline, but I think with some of the things we're doing, it's going to decline. So just opening it up to our sams and making sure that, some of our customers where we do policy reviews are rewrite those things are going to have a negative implication for the P/E actual number itself but not negative implications for our pi growth, and I think that's what we have to kind of balance out. And like I said, we do have some data at a household level and that continues to improve again I want to see that that trailing 3 for sure move the other direction.

是的，我的意思是，我之前談過一點這個，我們公開談論過落後 3 和落後 12。我從不希望看到保留率下降，但我認為，隨著我們正在做的一些事情，保留率將會下降。因此，只需將其開放給我們的 sam，並確保我們進行政策審查的一些客戶重寫這些內容，這將對市盈率實際數字本身產生負面影響，但不會對我們的 pi 增長產生負面影響，我認為這就是我們必須平衡的。正如我所說的，我們確實有一些家庭層面的數據，而且這些數據還在繼續改善，我希望看到落後的 3 個數據肯定會朝著另一個方向發展。

So we'll continue to do what we can, but it's a really big shopping environment right now. I think that's good for customers and having those competitive prices are great for competition and it's a fun place to be in.

因此，我們會繼續盡我們所能，但現在的購物環境確實很大。我認為這對顧客來說是好事，而且具有競爭力的價格有利於競爭，這是一個有趣的環境。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

I guess at the risk of, the tariff topic, being too much. One more on this one.

我認為關稅話題存在太多的風險。關於這一點，還有一點。

Yeah, I guess, first, I want to to kinda hear how you think about the balancing of Maintaining stability and rates for customers versus reacting fast to tariffs. And when I hear you say earlier today and throughout this conversation, continuing the growth engine and grow as fast as we can, it makes it seem like that maybe you're more inclined to keep the rates stable and let there be a margin impact versus reacting and taking rate increases.

是的，我想先聽聽您如何看待維持客戶穩定和利率與對關稅做出快速反應之間的平衡。當我聽到您今天早些時候以及在整個談話中都說要繼續保持增長引擎並儘可能快地增長時，這似乎表明您可能更傾向於保持利率穩定並讓其產生利潤影響，而不是做出反應並接受利率上調。

Yeah, it's a good question because all those things come into play. So I think what I think about stability of rates, I think about just those small bites of the apple. Like I said, we took, rates down in about a dozen states, rates up in about a dozen states, but kind of, flat from the perspective of a point of points.

是的，這是個好問題，因為所有這些因素都會發揮作用。所以我認為，我所考慮的利率穩定性，只是蘋果的那些小細節。就像我說的，大約有十幾個州的利率下降了，大約有十幾個州的利率上升了，但從某個點的角度來看，利率是持平的。

So you know it depends on each state and if we think we can grow and we look at that across the country and each one of our product managers, has the mandate to grow as fast as we can at or below a 96%. We obviously that that tariffs are always going to be. Front and center because I don't want to have to increase rates like we had to a few years ago based on the inflationary factors that came into play with used car prices and parts. So it's a balance.

所以你知道這取決於每個州，如果我們認為我們可以成長，我們會在全國範圍內觀察，我們的每一位產品經理都有義務盡可能快地增長，增長率應在 96% 或以下。我們顯然知道關稅將一直存在。之所以這麼說，是因為我不想像幾年前那樣，因為二手車和零件價格受到通膨因素的影響而提高利率。所以這是一種平衡。

We work on this literally every day to try to figure out the right way to grow and to capture this, capture the market share while there's a competitive rate.

我們幾乎每天都在為此努力，試圖找到正確的成長方式，並在具有競爭力的情況下佔領市場份額。

We obviously we like to be able to have those margins and still growth. So it's that balancing and sort of with stability, tariffs, growth, and combined ratio, it's just a math equation that we constantly work on a state level, product level.

我們顯然希望能夠擁有這些利潤並且繼續成長。因此，這就是平衡，以及穩定性、關稅、成長和綜合比率，這只是一個數學方程式，我們在國家層級、產品層面不斷進行研究。

It's a question, in the agency channel you've talked about maybe for a little bit, kind of a shift in 12 months or 6 month policies, and I wonder, is that just a result of the increased shopping and different customer base, maybe Sam's versus the Wright's Robinson's or is that something intentionally you're trying to push through?

這是一個問題，在代理商管道中，您可能已經談到了 12 個月或 6 個月政策的轉變，我想知道，這是否僅僅是購物增加和客戶群不同的結果，也許是 Sam's 與 Wright's Robinson's 之間的差異，或者這是您有意推動的？

We do that for, our preferred agents that our platinum agents that have our property book, because, most people have, the property is a 12 month policy, so we have that, it's more for convenience for the agents that we work with, the platinum agents that we work with in order to bundle auto and home.

我們這樣做是為了我們的首選代理商，即擁有我們房產賬簿的白金代理商，因為大多數人的房產都是 12 個月的保單，所以我們這樣做，更多是為了方便與我們合作的代理商，我們與白金代理商合作，以便將汽車和房屋捆綁在一起。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So Tricia, just it seems like your comments, prepared remarks and answers to questions have been fairly optimistic on growth. But if we think about the fact that most of your competitors had been raising prices a lot and a lot more than you were raising prices, they were limiting marketing, and now at least all the public guys are back in sort of growth mode.

所以 Tricia，看起來你的評論、準備好的發言和對問題的回答都對增長相當樂觀。但如果我們考慮到這樣一個事實：大多數競爭對手的漲價幅度都比你大得多，他們正在限制行銷，而現在至少所有的上市公司都回到了成長模式。

Why is it not reasonable to assume that you'd see a slowdown in growth, even if it remains strong, maybe not as strong as it has been?

為什麼認為經濟成長會放緩是不合理的，即使經濟成長依然強勁，甚至可能不像以前那麼強勁？

Well, I think what you will see is a much more difficult comparison because if you look at the last three quarters of 2024 we grew a massive amount.

嗯，我認為你會看到一個更困難的比較，因為如果你看看 2024 年的最後三個季度，我們實現了巨大的成長。

That said, we're in a really good position and you know we like we talked about with our acquisition machine, we're going to continue that. You saw what we spent in the quarter we're going to continue to spend as long as it's efficiency and our cost for sales under our target acquisition cost. We have a machine that works really well in both channels and so we're going to push the envelope as much as we can to grow. So I am bullish and I'm very optimistic and if I, had to had to put a buck dead on a horse, it'd be progressive.

也就是說，我們處於非常有利的地位，你知道，就像我們談到我們的收購機器一樣，我們將繼續這樣做。您看到了我們在本季的支出，只要效率高且銷售成本低於目標收購成本，我們就會繼續支出。我們擁有一台在兩個管道都能良好運轉的機器，因此我們將盡最大努力實現成長。所以我很看好，也很樂觀，如果我必須把錢押在馬上，那將是進步的。

No, and then just obviously there's a lot of focus with your firm on auto both personal and commercial. Can you talk about your long term aspirations and in the homeowner's business and then in commercial lines outside of auto just the trends in those businesses and where you see the best growth opportunity.

不，顯然貴公司非常關注個人和商業汽車。您能否談談您的長期願望以及房主業務和汽車以外的商業領域的發展趨勢以及您認為最佳的成長機會？

Yes, I mean, I think homeowners, we've talked about a lot in terms of our blueprint, and we feel like we're in a much better position, and we know people are stickier when they bundle their auto and home. So we're going to continue with that. The great thing about homeowners is that about half our business is on Progressive paper on ASI paper, and half our business. Work on the direct side with unaffiliated partners and so I think that is a nice balance to be able to have some on our paper and some no our auto and renters' bundle percentage is very high, over 75%, and those we call future Robinsons will some will hopefully be in our book of business.

是的，我的意思是，我認為房主們，我們已經就藍圖進行了很多討論，我們覺得我們處於一個更好的位置，我們知道當人們將汽車和房屋捆綁在一起時，他們會更加粘稠。因此我們將繼續這樣做。房主最棒的事情是，我們的業務大約有一半是在 Progressive 紙張上，一半是在 ASI 紙張上。與非關聯合作夥伴直接合作，因此我認為這是一個很好的平衡，能夠在我們的賬簿上保留一部分，而我們的汽車和租房者的捆綁比例非常高，超過 75%，而那些我們稱之為未來羅賓遜的人，希望一部分能夠出現在我們的業務簿上。

They're much more likely to get Progressive home and we continue to add partners in what we call our progressive advantage agencies. So our long term is that we want to clearly make money in property, make sure we have more stability and continue to understand and deepen our level of segmentation like we do on the private passenger auto side.

他們更有可能將 Progressive 帶回家，並且我們將繼續在所謂的 Progressive Advantage 機構中增加合作夥伴。因此，我們的長期目標是明確地在房地產領域賺錢，確保我們擁有更大的穩定性，並繼續了解和深化我們的細分水平，就像我們在私人乘用車方面所做的那樣。

So I feel like we are, we're turning a corner there for sure. On the commercial auto side, what I love about our whole commercial lines organization is that it's very diverse in terms of our business marketing tier targets, and so I think we have a lot of opportunities. So when you see economically things change and as an example. For higher trucking for higher specialty, we can then grow in our business auto contractor segment. We have a robust transportation network business, and we now have our BOP, our business owners policy in 46 states.

所以我感覺我們肯定正在經歷轉折。在商用汽車方面，我喜歡我們整個商用線組織的地方在於，就我們的業務行銷層級目標而言，它非常多樣化，因此我認為我們有很多機會。因此，當您看到經濟狀況發生變化時，這就是一個例子。透過更高水準的貨運和更高水準的專業化，我們可以在汽車承包商業務領域實現成長。我們擁有強大的運輸網絡業務，現在我們在 46 個州擁有 BOP，即企業主政策。

So we have a lot of different levers to grow in commercial lines, and that's really actually a very exciting part of the. Whole progressive portfolio. In fact, years ago when my team and I sat down and thought about our growth prospects and our strategy, a lot of the focus, one, the focus was let's grow the heck out of private passenger auto. Let's gain market share. Let's grow the heck out of commercial auto, even though we've been number one for a while and let's figure out homeowners.

因此，我們有很多不同的槓桿來在商業領域實現成長，這實際上是非常令人興奮的部分。整個漸進式投資組合。事實上，幾年前，當我和我的團隊坐下來思考我們的成長前景和策略時，許多焦點都是集中在讓我們大力發展私人乘用車上。讓我們獲得市場佔有率。讓我們大力發展商用汽車業務，儘管我們已經佔據第一的位置一段時間了，讓我們弄清楚房主的情況。

But then, and that was kind of horizon. In Horizon 2, we said, what are some businesses that you know we can evolve with and most of them sell on the commercial line side. So think of our fleet business as an example. We used to insure 10 or fewer power units. We went up to 40. We bought protective to kind of, fill out that portfolio. We created BOP. We have what we call business Explorer, which is similar to our home quote Explorer where we sell our products.

但那時，那是一種視野。在 Horizo​​n 2 中，我們說，您知道我們可以發展哪些業務，其中大多數在商業線上銷售。以我們的車隊業務為例。我們過去只為 10 個或更少的動力裝置投保。我們上升到了 40。我們購買了保護性產品來填補投資組合的空缺。我們創建了 BOP。我們有所謂的商業瀏覽器，它與我們銷售產品的家庭報價瀏覽器類似。

And the products of others to kind of have that small business owner feel really covered. So I think the runway in commercial lines is extraordinary, and Karen and her team are doing a great job figuring out exactly what levers to pull to make sure that we grow. And I wrote in my letter.

其他公司的產品也讓小企業主感到真正受到了保障。所以我認為商業領域的跑道非常出色，凱倫和她的團隊正在出色地找到確保我們成長的槓桿。我在信中寫道。

If you look at the combined ratio at the year ending the year 2024 in the commercial auto business, it's over 111 combined ratio where ours is sub 90, so people are going to have to take great and it may take longer because most are 12 month policies and people are going to shop and they're going to find a good rate and great coverage and great service in our commercial lines organization.

如果您查看商業汽車業務截至 2024 年的綜合比率，您會發現其綜合比率超過 111，而我們的綜合比率低於 90，因此人們將不得不採取更優厚的政策，而且可能需要更長的時間，因為大多數都是 12 個月的保單，人們會去購物，他們會在我們的商業險種組織中找到好的價格、覆蓋範圍和優質的服務。

I can add a bit to that answer in saying you you asked about our homeowner appetite.

我可以對這個答案做一點補充，告訴你你問的是我們的房主的胃口。

We think of it as our personalized appetite over around half of the personalized marketplace bundles home and auto, and our entry into home was to continue to grow in auto. So today we have low single digit market share of the Robinson segment, and that is around half of. The entire marketplace.

我們認為，我們對大約一半個人化市場的個人化需求將家居和汽車捆綁在一起，而我們進入家居領域是為了繼續在汽車領域發展。因此，今天我們在羅賓遜市場的份額僅為個位數，大約是一半。整個市場。

So our appetite at home is focused on growing personalized households, which gives us a lot more runway in the personalized space. To Trisha's point on the commercial side, BOP is a marketplace that is several times the size of our commercial auto marketplace. We are number one in commercial auto by a large factor, and in BOP we could have a runway that is.

因此，我們在家裡的興趣集中在發展個人化家庭，這為我們在個人化領域提供了更多的發展空間。就 Trisha 在商業方面的觀點而言，BOP 市場規模是我們商用汽車市場的幾倍。我們在商用汽車領域遙遙領先，在 BOP 領域也擁有良好的發展前景。

Very significant beyond commercial auto. So both of those entries we think create a runway for us for growth for decades.

對商用汽車而言意義重大。因此，我們認為這兩項舉措都為我們未來幾十年的成長創造了條件。

David Motemaden, Evercore.

大衛莫特馬登（David Motemaden），Evercore。

I had a question.

我有一個問題。

Just if you could help me think through the improvement in renewal applications growth.

如果您能幫我思考更新申請成長的改善。

That's come at the same time that we've seen a decline in the the policy life expectancy on a trailing 3 and trailing 12 month basis is is that just the mix impact that you were talking about earlier, Tricia, where like we're seeing the the PLEs come down but then overall the retention is, still okay given that, call it roughly 20% growth in renewal apps.

同時，我們看到過去 3 個月和過去 12 個月的保單預期壽命有所下降，這只是您之前談到的混合影響，Tricia，我們看到 PLE 下降，但總體而言，考慮到這一點，保留率仍然還可以，續保應用程式的增長幅度約為 20%。

Yeah, I think that's part of it, and I think just the stability of the rates kind of leveling out.

是的，我認為這是其中的一部分，而且我認為利率的穩定性逐漸趨於平穩。

I think like I did say before we had the pressure on renewals just because of shopping, but the renewals, from not having to take big increases, I think has been helpful as well. Do you want to add anything, Pat, to that?

我想就像我之前說過的，我們只是因為購物而面臨續約的壓力，但續約，由於不必大幅增加，我認為也有幫助。派特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, one thing I'd add is the renewals are driven by what happened 6 months ago, and we opened up pretty aggressively 6 months ago or 9 months ago, so renewal app growth rate will be driven by new apps that show up in that period. And PLE is a forward-looking projection, so we look at that to predict how long policies on the books today will retain. So that moves differently than the units that you see within our rental that's helpful, and.

是的，我想補充一點，續訂量是由 6 個月前發生的事情推動的，我們在 6 個月前或 9 個月前非常積極地開放了應用，因此續訂應用的增長率將由該時期出現的新應用推動。PLE 是一種前瞻性預測，因此我們透過它來預測目前生效的政策將保留多長時間。因此，這與您在我們租賃的單位內看到的單位不同，這很有幫助。

And then maybe just a question on the competitive environment, so Trisha, I think you mentioned that you know competitors are in a good spot, as well, increasing, advertising spend, I guess my question is.

然後也許只是一個關於競爭環境的問題，所以 Trisha，我想你提到你知道競爭對手也處於有利地位，並且正在增加廣告支出，我想我的問題是。

Are we close to a point where the market gets more competitive like we saw back in 2018, when I think that was the last time you guys and some of your peers started putting through price cuts, or, is there enough uncertainty out there where you think, that that won't be the case? I'm just sort of interested in terms of, how you're thinking about the the competitive environment right now.

我們是否接近市場競爭更加激烈的階段，就像我們在 2018 年看到的那樣，我認為那是你們和你們的一些同行最後一次開始降價，或者，是否存在足夠的不確定性，以至於您認為情況不會如此？我只是有點感興趣，想知道您如何看待當前的競爭環境。

Yeah, there's still a lot of ambient shopping, so a lot of shopping is taking place, which is why we want to take advantage of our ability to spend on advertising and have that acquisition machine work. It is more competitive, we took rate well in advance of the competition, and now the majority of the competitors, I think, are in a good position.

是的，仍然有很多環境購物，所以有很多購物正在進行，這就是為什麼我們要利用我們在廣告上花費的能力並讓這種收購機器發揮作用。競爭更加激烈，我們的利率遠遠領先競爭對手，現在我認為大多數競爭對手都處於有利地位。

So I think that, we're going to continue to push on advertising. We're going to continue to push our expenses down. That's a really big part of competitive prices, and that's another place that can help us fuel growth. In fact, we have taken 0.5 point off of our non-acquisition expense ratio in LAE every year for the past 17 years. So as we think about future growth, David.

所以我認為，我們將繼續推動廣告業務。我們將繼續降低開支。這是競爭性價格的重要組成部分，也是可以幫助我們推動成長的另一個面向。事實上，過去 17 年來，我們每年都將 LAE 的非收購費用率降低 0.5 個百分點。因此，當我們考慮未來的成長時，大衛。

We're going to, and in fact we're in the midst of figuring out our next, our designing our next three strategy expense management, expense discipline is going to be a big part of it because I think that will help continue to fuel our growth as well as some of the investments we've made in technology to become a more efficient organization. So I feel like it is really competitive. Like I said, that's kind of where the fun begins and we're going to do our best to continue to push on this growth.

我們將會，而且事實上我們正在製定下一步計劃，設計我們的下三個策略費用管理，費用紀律將是其中很重要的一部分，因為我認為這將有助於繼續推動我們的成長以及我們在技術方面所做的一些投資，從而使我們成為一個更有效率的組織。所以我覺得競爭真的很激烈。就像我說的，這就是樂趣開始的地方，我們將盡最大努力繼續推動這一成長。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Joshua Shanker。

I noticed your comment that you spent more on advertising in 1Q '25 than you did in 4Q '24. Always there's a nice surge in one Que seasonally it seems for a procurement of customers, but we only see the net numbers and retention is getting worse is the Efficacy of the spend the same as it was in 2024, or are you seeing diminishing returns even if they're above your targets right now for what you need to acquire new customers?

我注意到您的評論說您在 2025 年第一季的廣告支出比 2024 年第四季的廣告支出要多。似乎在採購客戶方面，季節性地總會出現一個不錯的成長，但我們只看到淨數字，而且保留率越來越差，支出的效率是否與 2024 年相同，或者您是否看到收益遞減，即使它們高於您現在獲取新客戶所需的目標？

Yeah, we typically the first quarter of any year is a high shopping season, so we want to make sure we leverage that. We don't share our target acquisition cost or our cost per sale, but it continues to be efficient. I'm clearly with competitors coming in, it'll get a little bit tougher, but we still feel like we're an efficient machine.

是的，通常每年的第一季都是購物旺季，所以我們想確保利用這一點。我們不會分享我們的目標收購成本或每次銷售的成本，但它仍然是高效的。我很清楚隨著競爭對手的加入，情況會變得更加艱難，但我們仍然覺得自己是一台高效的機器。

Do you expect to spend about as much in the remainder of the year on media and advertising as you did in the last 12 months of 2024?

您預計今年剩餘時間在媒體和廣告上的支出與 2024 年最後 12 個月的支出大致相同嗎？

We will spend as long as we believe we can grow and do it at efficient cost, and as you've seen over the years, that's a lever that we can ebb and flow depending on where we're at from a profitability perspective. But as you can see, sitting at 86 combined ratio for the first quarter, we're sitting in a really great position to be able to continue to spend to acquire more customers.

只要我們相信我們能夠實現成長，並且能夠以有效的成本實現成長，我們就會不斷投入，正如您多年來所看到的，這是一個槓桿，我們可以根據盈利能力的狀況來調整。但如您所見，第一季的綜合比率為 86，我們處於非常有利的地位，可以繼續投入資金來獲得更多客戶。

And I can sneak one more in, we do talk about how retention has changed and we don't really know what absolute retention is. I feel like 2025 feels a lot like 2019 in many ways.

我可以再偷偷說一句，我們確實討論了保留率是如何變化的，但我們並不真正知道絕對保留率是什麼。我覺得 2025 年在很多方面都跟 2019 年很相似。

How does the retention right now compared to past periods when industry had adequate pricing and there was a great deal of competitiveness in the market and willingness to accept new business from competitors? Are we at the same level we were in that time, or are you better now than you were 5 years ago?

與過去行業定價合理、市場競爭激烈且願意接受競爭對手的新業務的時期相比，目前的保留率如何？我們目前處於當時的水平嗎？或者說，現在的我們比五年前進步了嗎？

Well, some of our mix has changed with more of a preferred mix, and so when we look at retention, we look at it very granularally in terms of our mix of business, I would say we're probably, I don't have the data in front of me, probably about even.

嗯，我們的部分組合已經發生了變化，變得更加傾向於組合，因此，當我們考慮保留率時，我們會從業務組合的角度非常細緻地看待它，我想說，我們可能，我面前沒有數據，可能差不多。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

You talked about spending more on advertising and clearly it's paying off. When you have more competitors looking to grow, does the cost per unit of advertising go up, or is it just a matter of more advertising overall?

您談到了在廣告上投入更多資金，顯然這是有回報的。當您有更多競爭對手尋求成長時，每單位廣告的成本是否會上升，還是只是整體廣告費用增加的問題？

Well, there's more people in the system say on digital auctions you're going to have more competitiveness, so we just have to be be where we think we should be to get new customers and not overpay for those. And so from that bidding perspective, yeah, it gets there's a little bit more pressure on it when competitors are in, but we know that data very well and we are able to bid on and and and efficiently spend to get new customers.

嗯，系統中有更多的人說在數位拍賣上你將擁有更多的競爭力，所以我們只需要在我們認為應該的地方獲得新客戶，而不是為此支付過高的費用。因此，從競標的角度來看，當競爭對手加入時，我們會面臨更大的壓力，但我們非常了解這些數據，並且能夠競標並有效地花錢來獲得新客戶。

Okay, no, that's helpful.

好的，不，這很有幫助。

The second question, I think I'm just missing a step. Like you've talked about there still being a lot of shopping. Clearly competitor rate increases are slowing down. Why do you think there is, I don't know if it's as much shopping as last year, or in the absence of significant rate increases, what's promoting more shopping behavior?

第二個問題，我想我只是錯過了一步。就像您所說的那樣，仍然有很多購物。顯然，競爭對手的利率成長正在放緩。您認為為什麼會出現這種情況？我不知道是不是因為購物量和去年一樣大，還是因為在沒有大幅升息的情況下，有什麼因素促使人們出現更多的購物行為？

Yeah, I think it's just easier to shop, and I think with all the other inflationary items out there, people are looking to figure out a way to save money. So whether it's, at the, eggs in the grocery store or insurance, and so, people, because it is easy and you can easily shop and if the price is right switch, I think, customers are just trying to figure out how to balance their own budgets.

是的，我認為購物變得更容易了，而且我認為，考慮到其他所有通貨膨脹因素，人們都在想辦法省錢。因此，無論是在雜貨店購買雞蛋還是購買保險，人們都可以輕鬆購物，如果價格合適，我認為顧客只是想弄清楚如何平衡自己的預算。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Just looking within the property segment, I think you've made a note that like 30% of that business is going direct now. You maybe just talk about the customer appetite to go through that direct channel. I'm not sure if that was driven by a change in business mix, but it seems that that's up about 5 points year over year.

僅從房地產領域來看，我想您已經注意到，目前該領域約有 30% 的業務是直接進行的。您可能只是談論客戶透過直接管道購買商品的興趣。我不確定這是否是由業務組合的變化所致，但似乎比去年同期增長了約 5 個百分點。

We made that decision, a long time ago. So, we purchased American Strategic Insurance, now Progressive Home, mainly to get access to that those bundled Robinsons in the independent agent channel, and that has worked really well, and we have, our platinum agents and other agents that are able to sell those bundles and that's worked.

我們很久以前就做出這個決定了。因此，我們收購了 American Strategic Insurance（現為 Progressive Home），主要是為了透過獨立代理商管道獲得 Robinsons 捆綁產品，這種方法效果很好，而且我們的白金代理商和其他代理商可以銷售這些捆綁產品，這種方法效果很好。

But we knew even at that time, way back when that we wanted our customers to have a choice. So if our appetite wasn't open in a certain geography, could we get that, could we get our customers to still, have the auto with us in another person's home? So we have had what we call our progressive advantage agency through Home quote explore to have.

但我們早在那個時候就知道，我們希望我們的客戶能夠有選擇。所以，如果某個地區對我們的需求不大，我們能否滿足這個需求，能否讓顧客仍然把汽車放在別人家裡？因此，我們透過 Home quote explore 獲得了所謂的進步優勢機構。

Our product plus a product of unaffiliated partners so we feel great about the growth there because again we get a commission on those policies and those and those customers retain longer. So we have about half of our Robinsons are with Progressive and half are with our partner carriers.

我們的產品加上非關聯合作夥伴的產品，因此我們對那裡的成長感到非常滿意，因為我們再次從這些保單中獲得佣金，而這些客戶保留的時間更長。因此，我們的 Robinson 大約有一半與 Progressive 合作，另一半與我們的合作營運商合作。

And we feel really good about that and we have great partners and it's a win for them and a win for us. So we'll continue that growth on both our paper and within our progressive advantage agency. We continue to add new partners to make sure that we give our customers the ability to, bundle the auto home.

我們對此感到非常高興，我們擁有優秀的合作夥伴，這對他們來說是一種勝利，對我們來說也是一種勝利。因此，我們將繼續在紙面業務和漸進式優勢機構中實現成長。我們將繼續增加新的合作夥伴，以確保我們能夠為客戶提供捆綁汽車家居的能力。

Just for clarity on that 30%, so that is of the property business, the progressive rights, as Trisha was mentioning, we have unaffiliated third party carriers that we work with through our direct channel, and that is a very significant business and growing rapidly as well. So when we talk about the policies and Force of Robinson's we skew direct. That is where we started bundling with those third party carriers and increasingly we have offered the progressive product there as well, but by far and away the majority of what we're selling direct is actually the third party business, so the 30% is what is underwritten by Progressive go direct.

為了澄清那 30%，這就是房地產業務，即漸進權利，正如 Trisha 提到的那樣，我們透過直接管道與非附屬的第三方承運人合作，這是一項非常重要的業務，並且也在快速成長。因此，當我們談論羅賓遜的政策和力量時，我們傾向於直接。從那時起，我們開始與第三方營運商捆綁銷售，並且我們也越來越多地在那裡提供 Progressive 產品，但到目前為止，我們直接銷售的大部分實際上是第三方業務，因此 30% 是由 Progressive 直接承保的。

Yeah, if I could jump in just quickly on that with the industry trend. So your observation about, direct to consumer home, and I think the question is there growth in direct to consumer home? Our answer is absolutely and to John's point.

是的，如果我可以快速地了解行業趨勢的話。那麼，您對直接面向消費者家庭的觀察以及我認為的問題是直接面向消費者家庭是否有成長？我們的回答是肯定的，並且符合約翰的觀點。

That's where we're investing. So today, roughly 30% of auto insurance is sold. Direct to consumer and less than 15% of property insurance is sold direct to consumer, so that GAAP exists in part due to distribution channel but also complexity of the product, meaning homes don't have VINs, they're harder to quote in an easy direct to consumer experience, and we're investing to change that and to close that GAAP. And we think as consumers find.

這就是我們投資的地方。因此，今天大約有 30% 的汽車保險被售出。直接面向消費者，不到 15% 的財產保險是直接出售給消費者的，因此 GAAP 的存在部分是由於分銷渠道，但也是由於產品的複雜性，這意味著房屋沒有 VIN，他們很難在簡單的直接面向消費者的體驗中報價，我們正在投資改變這種狀況並關閉 GAAP。我們的想法和消費者的想法一致。

And easy to use direct to consumer home option that affords the depth of coverage and breadth of carriers. We think we will capture an outsized portion of that growth going forward, so we're investing there and we do expect it to continue to drive growth.

易於使用的直接面向消費者的家庭選項，可提供營運商的深度覆蓋和廣度。我們認為，我們將在未來獲得很大一部分成長，因此我們在那裡進行投資，我們確實預計它將繼續推動成長。

Thanks for that. And then, as we kind of go into the second half here and into 26 and increasingly competitive auto market, does it change kind of where a better, where a dollar of capital is better deployed, whether that be the agency channel or direct because I suppose direct has been outgrowing agency for for a couple of years now.

謝謝。然後，當我們進入下半年，進入競爭日益激烈的 26 個汽車市場時，情況是否會改變，在哪裡可以更好地部署一美元的資本，無論是透過代理商管道還是直接管道，因為我認為直接管道已經超過代理商管道好幾年了。

Yeah, I think direct, is influenced largely by our media spend. We want to grow across the board and so, that will, the timing could be different based on the competitive nature out there. And so, clearly if you go into an agent's office, you have, a lot more choices which we think is really great for consumers. We're going to continue to drive growth. We are the largest Independent agent company out there and so that's been a big part of our growth and our history and in the second half, we'll push the envelope on both trying to grow and the agency channel and having incentives to grow and in some event have the incentive to grow in the bundled business where we want to grow in our less volatile states and direct will be heavily influenced by not just price but our ability to advertise.

是的，我認為直接影響很大程度上受到我們媒體支出的影響。我們希望全面發展，因此，根據競爭性質，時間可能會有所不同。因此，顯然，如果你去代理商的辦公室，你會有更多的選擇，我們認為這對消費者來說真的很棒。我們將繼續推動成長。我們是最大的獨立代理商，因此這是我們的成長和歷史的重要組成部分，在下半年，我們將在嘗試成長和代理商管道方面突破極限，並有成長動力，在某些情況下，有動力在捆綁業務中成長，我們希望在波動較小的州實現成長，而直接成長不僅會受到價格的影響，還會受到廣告能力的影響。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

One of the areas that's been, tremendously impactful for you guys, the last couple of years is just the investment income growth, and they didn't spend any time in the Q&A section talking about it, so.

過去幾年對你們影響巨大的領域之一就是投資收益成長，但他們在問答環節並沒有花任何時間來討論這個問題。

Maybe you can give us some perspective on where you are with new money yields and book yields and how you're thinking about asset allocation as we look forward considering your comments about the choppy market conditions.

也許您可以向我們介紹一下新資金收益率和帳面收益率的情況，以及您對資產配置的看法，我們期待考慮您對波動的市場狀況的評論。

Yeah, I'm going to let John Bauer, who runs our progressive capital management, answer that, but the short answer is we definitely have had new money come in that we can invest in greater yielding securities, and that's been part of it. I talked a little bit about it in my letter, my opening comments, but John, do you want to give Gregory a little bit more color on that?

是的，我將讓負責我們進步資本管理的約翰鮑爾來回答這個問題，但簡短的回答是，我們肯定有新的資金流入，我們可以投資於收益更高的證券，這是其中的一部分。我在信中、開場白中談到了這一點，但是約翰，你想給格雷戈里更詳細地講一下嗎？

Sure, yeah, thanks so much for the question. I would just start with it's really important to understand with Progressive's model, what we're aiming for, from the management and board perspective, which is to drive our return on equity over time. And so we think about that by starting with our, operating business grow as fast as we can at a 96. With our operating leverage on top of that, we have a really efficient capital structure. So think about our financial leverage which has, generally been in the 20% to 30% range.

當然，非常感謝您的提問。首先，我想說的是，從管理階層和董事會的角度來看，了解 Progressive 的模式非常重要，我們的目標就是隨著時間的推移提高股本回報率。因此，我們考慮從營運業務開始，以 96 的速度盡可能快地成長。憑藉我們的經營槓桿，我們擁有了真正有效率的資本結構。想想我們的財務槓桿，一般在 20% 到 30% 的範圍內。

A little bit lower at the moment just due to our really strong comprehensive income growth. And then we think about assuming we have the strong capital we need. We're in a good efficient capital structure position. You know what type of investment risk do we want to be taking to drive performance over the long term?

目前略低一些，只是因為我們的綜合收入成長非常強勁。然後我們假設我們擁有所需的雄厚資本。我們的資本結構處於良好且有效率的狀態。您知道我們願意承擔什麼類型的投資風險來推動長期績效嗎？

And for us over the last year or so valuations were not particularly attractive and therefore you saw as we came into this year we had one of our more conservative allocations that we have with a significant amount of cash and treasuries and as Tricia mentioned earlier, a very low amount of equities.

對於我們來說，在過去一年左右的時間裡，估值並不是特別有吸引力，因此，正如你看到的那樣，當我們進入今年時，我們的配置是比較保守的，我們擁有大量現金和國債，而正如 Tricia 之前提到的，股票數量非常少。

As we've moved through last year and this year, we did raise our interest rate risk up a little bit, which you could see through our duration up from 3 years to 3.4 years. So as we sit now as a company, we feel like we're in an incredibly strong capital position with a portfolio that if opportunities strike, we'll have the ability to take advantage of those. But at the moment we're incredibly patient.

隨著去年和今年的進展，我們確實將利率風險稍微提高了一些，這可以透過將期限從 3 年延長至 3.4 年看出。因此，就我們目前的公司而言，我們感覺我們擁有極其強大的資本實力和投資組合，如果機會出現，我們將有能力利用這些機會。但目前我們非常有耐心。

But what's been great with all of that is through The strong growth of the operating business as well as the increase in yields in the market through risk-free yields moving higher and credit spreads moving wider, that's given us an opportunity to generate more and more investment income and you've seen our book yields rise. But I do want to point out different from many of Competitors.

但這一切的偉大之處在於，透過營運業務的強勁成長以及無風險收益率的提高和信用利差的擴大，市場收益率的提高，這給了我們一個機會來產生越來越多的投資收益，你已經看到我們的帳面收益率上升。但我確實想指出與許多競爭對手的不同之處。

We don't really target a book yield. We're looking to drive as strong a total return as we can over time, and having that long term focus really allows us to go through a period like 2024 where we can have a very conservative allocation to risk and wait for opportunities to come our way. Does that answer your question?

我們其實並不以圖書收益為目標。我們希望隨著時間的推移盡可能地實現強勁的總回報，而這種長期關注確實使我們能夠度過像 2024 年這樣的時期，在此期間我們可以非常保守地分配風險並等待機會的到來。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yeah, it does, there's obviously more detail in there, but, and not appropriate for this conference call.

是的，其中顯然有更多細節，但不適合這次電話會議。

I want to go back is just the last question for me, in your comments you mentioned the dongle and snapshot is prominently featured and I guess this is like a technology related issue. How many people are still using the dongle? It, I feel like a number of your competitors have switched from the dongle to like apps on the phone, the track movement, data.

我想回顧一下這對我來說只是最後一個問題，在您的評論中您提到加密狗和快照是突出的功能，我猜這是一個與技術相關的問題。有多少人仍在使用加密狗？我覺得你們的許多競爭對手已經從加密狗轉向了手機上的應用程式、追蹤運動和數據。

As well, if not better, but I don't -- I'm surprised that Dongle's still there. Maybe you can give us how much of the dongle is being used, the snapshot product is being used, and I know you're rolling out your new 8.9 model, so, some additional color that would be helpful.

一樣好，甚至更好，但我並不驚訝——Dongle 還在那裡。也許您可以告訴我們加密狗的使用量、快照產品的使用量，而且我知道您正在推出新的 8.9 型號，因此，提供一些額外的資訊將會很有幫助。

The majority, I'm not sure the exact percentage I know the majority of our new businesses on our mobile device, but we still do have some on a dongle, which is helpful, for because it's getting data directly from the car, so it really helps us to tune and refine our models a little bit differently than the mobile device, but most. The new stuff is coming through mobile. Pat, do you know what?

大多數，我不確定確切的百分比，我知道我們的大多數新業務都是透過行動裝置進行的，但我們仍然有一些是透過加密狗進行的，這很有幫助，因為它直接從汽車獲取數據，所以它確實幫助我們調整和完善我們的模型，與行動裝置略有不同，但大多數都是如此。新內容正在透過行動裝置發布。帕特，你知道嗎？

Yeah, I don't have the exact percentage or mix on it, but you're right. When given the choice, consumers opt for the mobile app, and that does give us additional information beyond the hardware device and lowers the cost and that we're not shipping out devices and paying for a cell chip in all those monitored vehicles.

是的，我不知道確切的百分比或混合比例，但你是對的。當有選擇時，消費者會選擇行動應用程序，這確實為我們提供了硬體設備之外的更多信息，並降低了成本，而且我們不必運送設備並為所有受監控的車輛支付手機晶片費用。

Are you just seeing an uptake in in the use of the the the mobile device versus your historical experience or is it just staying consistent the level staying consistent?

與您的歷史經驗相比，您是否看到行動裝置的使用率上升，還是只是保持一致的水平？

Well, we are seeing a higher take rate, particularly in the direct channel where we optimize the experience and where consumers are interested in, saving money and getting rewarded for safer driving. So we think EBI as our most powerful and predictive variable, continues to be a differentiator for us in the market, and we continue to invest, leverage our scale, and leverage the technology to drive adoption and help that price more accurately.

嗯，我們看到了更高的接受率，特別是在直接管道，我們優化了體驗，消費者感興趣的是省錢，並因更安全的駕駛而獲得獎勵。因此，我們認為 EBI 是我們最強大和最具預測性的變量，它繼續成為我們在市場上的差異化因素，我們將繼續投資，利用我們的規模，並利用技術來推動採用並幫助更準確地定價。

Those in the queue appear to be those who've already asked questions, so that concludes our event. Nik, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

排隊的人似乎已經提出問題了，所以我們的活動到此結束。尼克，我會把電話轉回給你，讓你提供結束腳本。

Thank you. That concludes the Progressive Corporation first quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the investor relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。這就是 Progressive Corporation 第一季投資者活動結束的。有關該活動重播的資訊將於明年在 Progressive 網站的投資者關係部分提供。您現在可以斷開連線。