前進保險 (PGR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. And thank you for joining us today for Progressive’s First (sic) [third] quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations and I will be your moderator for today’s event.

早安.感謝您今天參加我們的 Progressive 第一（原文如此）[第三]季度投資者活動。我是投資者關係總監 Doug Constantine，我將擔任今天活動的主持人。

The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company’s website.

除了已在公司網站上發布的 10-K 表格年度報告、10-Q 表格季度報告以及致股東信中提供的內容外，該公司不會就其業績發表詳細評論。

Although our quarterly investor relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today’s event for introductory comments by our CEO, and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.

儘管我們的季度投資者關係活動通常包括對我們業務的特定部分的演示，但我們將利用今天活動安排的 60 分鐘由首席執行官進行介紹性評論，並與公司成員進行問答環節我們的領導團隊。

The introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions-and-answers with members of our leadership team.

我們執行長的介紹性評論之前已錄製。完成先前錄製的發言後，我們將利用本次活動剩餘的 60 分鐘時間與我們的領導團隊成員進行現場問答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today’s event.

與往常一樣，本次活動的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的預期，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際事件和結果與今天活動中討論的內容有重大差異。

Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face.

有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們截至2023 年12 月31 日的年度報告10-K 表格，以及2024 年第一、第二和第三季度的10-Q 表格作為補充，您將在其中尋找影響我們業務的風險因素的討論、與前瞻性聲明相關的安全港聲明以及我們面臨的挑戰的其他討論。

These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.

這些文件可以透過我們網站的投資者關係部分找到，網址為investors.progressive.com。

To begin today, I’m pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?

首先，我很高興向大家介紹我們的執行長 Tricia Griffith，她將為我們做一些介紹性評論。特里西亞？

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I’d like to begin today by extending my sympathies to those affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The scenes of destruction were truly heart-wrenching and the human toll of these storms was devastating.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。首先，我想向受颶風海倫和米爾頓影響的人們表示慰問。破壞的場景確實令人心碎，這些風暴造成的傷亡是毀滅性的。

As the cleanup efforts continue, I’m heartened to know that Progressive’s excellent claim staff is standing by to assist our customers in their greatest time of need. In fact, I’ve heard countless versions of stories like the one I’m about to share with you. This is when our customers need us most, and when we shine the brightest.

隨著清理工作的持續進行，我很高興知道 Progressive 優秀的理賠人員隨時待命，在客戶最需要的時候為他們提供協助。事實上，我聽過無數版本的故事，就像我要與您分享的故事一樣。這是客戶最需要我們的時候，也是我們最閃耀的時候。

My name is Anne-Marie and my fiance is Timothy. We just lost our RV with this last Hurricane Helene. I’ve been in Tampa for two months sitting by Timothy’s bedside while he fought cancer. I’m happy to say that he is in remission. I came back to Fort Myers Beach to meet with the adjuster, Ray.

我的名字是安妮瑪麗，我的未婚夫是提摩西。我們剛剛在上次颶風海倫中失去了我們的房車。我在坦帕待了兩個月，在蒂莫西與癌症作鬥爭時坐在他的床邊。我很高興地說他的病情已得到緩解。我回到邁爾斯堡海灘與理賠員雷會面。

I would like to tell you about my encounter with this lovely gentleman. Ray was prompt, professional and showed compassion for my loss of our home. He is the perfect person to be assessing the damages of one’s property. I cannot say enough positive things about Ray. He is one of a kind and it was a pleasure to meet under these horrible circumstances. That’s what it’s all about. To my clients’ colleagues, you amaze me every day. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for all that you do each and every day.

我想告訴你我與這位可愛的紳士的相遇。雷反應迅速、專業，並對我失去家園表示同情。他是評估財產損失的最佳人選。關於雷，我無法說出足夠的正面評價。他是獨一無二的，很高興在這種可怕的情況下見到他。這就是它的全部內容。對於我的客戶同事來說，你們每天都讓我感到驚訝。我從心底感謝你們每天所做的一切。

Turning towards results. The third quarter was one of our strongest in our history. Across our businesses, we added almost 1.6 million policies in force, the most we’ve ever added in a quarter. This brings the total policies added this year to nearly 4.2 million, truly a remarkable feat.

轉向結果。第三季是我們歷史上最強勁的季度之一。在我們的各個業務中，我們新增了近 160 萬份有效保單，這是我們單季新增保單數量最多的一次。這使得今年新增的保單總數接近420萬份，確實是一項了不起的壯舉。

The magnitude of this growth during the year requires increases in sales, servicing and claim staffing, and our teams have met the challenge, enabling us to maximize growth while providing the quality experience our customers expect of us.

這一年的成長幅度需要​​增加銷售、服務和索賠人員配備，我們的團隊已經迎接了挑戰，使我們能夠最大限度地實現成長，同時提供客戶期望的優質體驗。

Throughout the third quarter, we experienced very strong demand for our Personal Lines products across both channels. While direct channel new application growth responded almost immediately to our increase in media spend and the release of non-rate actions earlier in the year, as evidenced by the channel’s stronger new business growth in Q2, the agency channel’s growth potential wasn’t fully realized until the last few weeks of the second quarter. The result is a third quarter where our growth machine was firing on all cylinders with clear results in both channels experiencing record levels of new applications.

在整個第三季度，我們的兩個通路對個人線路產品的需求都非常強勁。雖然直接管道新應用程式的成長幾乎立即對我們今年早些時候媒體支出的增加和非費率行動的發布做出了反應，正如該管道在第二季度更強勁的新業務增長所證明的那樣，但代理通路的成長直到第二季的最後幾週，潛力才充分發揮。結果是，我們的成長機器在第三季全速運轉，兩個通路都取得了明顯的成果，新應用程式達到了創紀錄的水平。

To-date, the level of ambient shopping and Personal Auto remains very high, ambient capitalized on that. In Q3 2024, we spent more on media than in any quarter in our history. The result was a higher number of direct channel prospects than any quarter in our history, surpassing Q2 2024, the previous record holder.

迄今為止，環境購物和個人汽車的水平仍然非常高，環境充分利用了這一點。2024 年第三季度，我們在媒體上的支出比歷史上任何季度都多。結果是，直接通路潛在客戶的數量比我們歷史上任何一個季度都要多，超過了之前的記錄保持者 2024 年第二季度。

Additionally, conversion is strong, suggesting that we are well-priced compared to the competition. Though the fourth quarter, especially November and December, are historically lower in sales volume, we believe that we can continue to position ourselves to capture more than our fair share of prospects from the marketplace.

此外，轉換率很高，這表明與競爭對手相比，我們的價格合理。儘管第四季度，尤其是 11 月和 12 月的銷售量處於歷史較低水平，但我們相信，我們可以繼續定位自己，從市場上獲得超過我們公平份額的潛在客戶。

The record growth is even more impressive when you consider our profit margins. Our year-to-date combined ratio through Q3 was very strong. Though the cost of Hurricane Milton are not reflected in our Q3 numbers, 2024 is still shaping up to be one of the best non-pandemic years in our history.

考慮到我們的利潤率，創紀錄的成長更加令人印象深刻。我們第三季迄今的綜合成本率非常強勁。儘管米爾頓颶風造成的損失並未反映在我們的第三季數據中，但 2024 年仍將成為我們歷史上最好的非流行病年份之一。

Growing at our pace with record profits is a testament to the investment we’ve made in segmentation over the years and we’re not standing still. Our newest product model, which continues to add further segmentation in our Personal Auto products, is available in states that represent about one-third of our net written premium.

我們的成長速度和創紀錄的利潤證明了我們多年來在細分領域所做的投資，而且我們並沒有停滯不前。我們最新的產品型號繼續在我們的個人汽車產品中進一步細分，在占我們淨承保保費約三分之一的州提供。

You’ll recall that in 2022 and 2023, the Commercial Auto market was impacted by many of the same inflationary pressures as Personal Lines. In response to the rising loss costs, we took double-digit rate increases in 2023.

您會記得，在 2022 年和 2023 年，商用汽車市場受到了許多與個人保險相同的通膨壓力的影響。為了因應不斷上升的損失成本，我們在 2023 年採取了兩位數的升息。

In Q3 2024, we reported our third straight quarter of quarter-over-quarter improvement in our loss and LAE ratio for Commercial Lines. Our results in part from the rate we took in 2023, earning in, which is a slower process in Commercial Lines, since the majority of our policies are 12 months.

2024 年第三季度，我們報告了商業線路的損失和 LAE 比率連續第三個季度較上季改善。我們的結果部分來自於 2023 年的盈利率，這是商業保險的一個較慢的過程，因為我們的大多數保單都是 12 個月。

Growth has been more difficult in that line as the softness in the truck market has offset solid growth in our other non-trucking business market targets. As our competitors catch up in rate, however, we are optimistic that we’re well-positioned for more growth in the future.

由於卡車市場的疲軟抵消了我們其他非貨運業務市場目標的強勁成長，因此該領域的成長更加困難。然而，隨著我們的競爭對手在速度上迎頭趕上，我們樂觀地認為，我們為未來的更大成長做好了準備。

The third quarter results in Property were excellent at a 78.5 combined ratio, after almost 30 points of favorable development on storms from the first half of the year, and despite the 21 points of losses incurred by Hurricane Helene. However, two hurricanes striking Florida only a week apart underscores our need to risk adjust our Property business. Our efforts here are evident with Q3 PIF growth in what we consider to be less volatile weather-related states of 19%, compared to a decrease of 9% in the volatile weather states.

儘管颶風海倫造成了 21 個百分點的損失，但房地產業第三季業績表現出色，綜合成本率為 78.5，上半年風暴的有利發展近 30 個百分點。然而，相隔一周襲擊佛羅裡達州的兩次颶風凸顯了我們需要風險調整我們的房地產業務。我們在這方面的努力是顯而易見的，在我們認為與天氣相關的波動較小的州，第三季度 PIF 增長了 19%，而在天氣波動較大的州則下降了 9%。

Risk adjustment has been and will be a year’s long effort, but we are making progress. As always, our goal is to have all of our reporting segments meet their profitability targets, and we continue to make headway in our Property business with improved segmentation in our 5.0 product model and adjustments to our underwriting appetite.

風險調整已經並將持續一年的努力，但我們正在取得進展。像往常一樣，我們的目標是讓我們所有的報告部門都達到盈利目標，並且我們透過改進 5.0 產品模型的細分以及對承保胃口的調整，繼續在房地產業務方面取得進展。

Ultimately, when I look across our results today, I see a huge amount of opportunity. While we can’t know exactly what the future holds or what the market will bring, I believe that we are in a good position to be flexible and to react to whatever comes our way. The actions we take today are what position us for what we achieve next year and I firmly believe that we are in a good position headed into 2025. While there will undoubtedly be challenges, I’m already looking forward to what I anticipate will be a great fourth quarter and a strong 2025.

最終，當我查看今天的結果時，我看到了巨大的機會。雖然我們無法確切地知道未來會發生什麼或市場會帶來什麼，但我相信我們處於有利位置，可以靈活應對發生的任何事情。我們今天採取的行動將為我們明年的成就奠定基礎，我堅信我們在邁向 2025 年時處於有利位置。儘管挑戰無疑會存在，但我已經期待著美好的第四季和強勁的 2025 年。

Thank you again and I will now take your questions.

再次感謝您，我現在回答您的問題。

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today’s event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. (Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question.

今天活動前錄製的部分到此結束。現在，我們的管理團隊成員可以現場回答問題。（操作員說明）我們現在回答第一個問題。

Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. If we think about and good morning. If we think about the idea of growing at a 96% combined ratio or better, as fast as Progressive can, is that a revenue premium number or is that a policy count number? I ask this because there are some who are considering Progressive very, very good margins, votes for price cuts in the near-term future, but would Progressive cut price if it did not come with commensurate improvements to the policy count growth?

是的。感謝您回答我的問題。如果我們想想，早安。如果我們考慮以 96% 或更高的綜合比率增長的想法，以與 Progressive 一樣快的速度增長，這是收入保費數字還是保單計數數字？我問這個問題是因為有些人正在考慮漸進式非常非常好的利潤率，投票支持在不久的將來降價，但如果漸進式沒有相應地改善保單數量增長，漸進式會降價嗎？

Good morning, Josh. That’s a good question. We look at both when we talk about grow as fast as we can. Some of our internal measures, success rates are based on our average PIF growth. And we always talk about our preferred growth is our unit growth, because trends can ebb and flow as you see in the last several years.

早上好，喬許。這是個好問題。當我們談論盡可能快的成長時，我們會同時考慮這兩個面向。我們的一些內部衡量標準、成功率是基於我們的平均 PIF 成長。我們總是談論我們首選的成長是我們的單位成長，因為正如您在過去幾年中看到的那樣，趨勢可能會潮起潮落。

So that’s our preferred method. Obviously, we want to stay ahead of trend and we know that retention is very helpful if we have stable rates. So we want to get as many new apps in the door as possible through obviously our increased media spend, but then we want to keep those and so I think it’s a balance of everything. So premium, we always want to stay ahead of trend and make at least that $0.04 and unit growth, we want to grow as fast as we can as long as we can service our customers in the way they deserve. Does that answer your question?

所以這是我們的首選方法。顯然，我們希望保持領先地位，並且我們知道，如果我們擁有穩定的費率，保留率將非常有幫助。因此，我們希望透過顯然增加的媒體支出來獲得盡可能多的新應用程序，但隨後我們希望保留這些應用程序，所以我認為這是一切的平衡。因此，我們始終希望保持領先地位，並實現至少 0.04 美元的成長和單位成長，只要我們能夠以客戶應得的方式為客戶提供服務，我們就希望盡可能快地成長。這能回答你的問題嗎？

Are the margins yes. So, I guess, more important, are the margins today so tasty that Progressive has a view that they should be considering price cuts in the near-term future?

邊距是嗎？所以，我想，更重要的是，今天的利潤是否如此可觀，以至於進步公司認為他們應該在不久的將來考慮降價？

Well, what the price cuts, we will watch trend carefully. So like we said in the Q, we did about nine states of some price cuts, but we also had states that went up a little bit. So I think what I’ve talked about in the past is really we want to use in the current margins we have, we want to use that to propel growth.

那麼降價幅度如何，我們拭目以待。正如我們在問題中所說，我們對大約九個州進行了一些降價，但也有一些州的價格略有上漲。因此，我認為我過去談到的實際上是我們希望利用現有的利潤率，我們希望利用它來推動成長。

So that will be the continued sort of march towards using our media spend to continue to have that organic growth. But we will see states and channels and products where we have to increase rates a little bit as well. We go back to that small bites of the apple where we just want to stay ahead of it and have those rates stable, but we believe we’re really well positioned to continue to grow.

因此，這將是利用我們的媒體支出繼續實現有機成長的持續前進。但我們將看到我們也必須稍微提高費率的州、通路和產品。我們回到了小目標，我們只想保持領先地位並保持這些利率穩定，但我們相信我們確實處於繼續成長的有利位置。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Josh.

謝謝，喬許。

Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的鮑勃黃。

Hey. Good morning. Good morning. Maybe just a follow-up on that, but more on the competitive environment perspective. As we think about your ad spending and as we think about your advantages in pricing or competitiveness in pricing, but if competition were to intensify in 2025 and going forward, how effective do you feel the ad spending and then the pricing side will be? Like, should we expect that incremental ad spend, but the effectiveness of the ad spend maybe will come down a little bit? Like, curious your view on this.

嘿。早安.早安.也許只是後續行動，但更多的是從競爭環境的角度來看。當我們考慮您的廣告支出以及您在定價方面的優勢或定價競爭力時，但如果競爭在 2025 年及未來加劇，您認為廣告支出和定價方面的效果如何？例如，我們是否應該預期廣告支出會增加，但廣告支出的成效可能會下降一點？就像，好奇你對此的看法。

Yeah. I mean, I think, competitors have taken this time to get their rates on the street and we see people coming back a little bit, not as quickly as we did, obviously, on the media side. We’ll always look at media from an efficiency perspective and we’ll want, if our cost per sale is still favorable to our targeted acquisition costs, we’ll continue to spend to make sure that we get more customers and convert more customers.

是的。我的意思是，我認為競爭對手已經利用這段時間在街上獲得了他們的價格，我們看到人們回來了一點，顯然沒有我們在媒體方面那麼快。我們將始終從效率的角度看待媒體，如果我們的每次銷售成本仍然有利於我們的目標獲取成本，我們將繼續支出以確保我們獲得更多客戶並轉換更多客戶。

I think, really how we feel right now with our current margins and where we’re at, we’re going to continue to push on media and push on growth and we just feel like we’re really well positioned, because if, and we believe we’re still in a hard market, people, consumers continue to shop, we’re going to have those stable rates.

我認為，我們現在的感受是，以目前的利潤率和所處的位置，我們將繼續推動媒體並推動成長，我們感覺我們的定位非常好，因為如果我們相信我們仍處於艱難的市場，人們、消費者繼續購物，我們將擁有穩定的價格。

And in addition, we’ve been spending and it’s a little bit further afield, but we’ve been spending money on not just getting business in the door, but some delayed response ads. So I don’t know if you notice, I’m sure you do, either in my comments or my letters, I talk a lot about our culture and our people and who we are and I don’t know that enough people, consumers and customers and our communities know sort of our purpose, that we exist to help people move forward and live fully.

此外，我們一直在花錢，而且距離有點遠，但我們花錢不僅是為了吸引業務，還為了一些延遲回應的廣告。所以我不知道你是否注意到，我相信你注意到了，無論是在我的評論還是我的信中，我談論了很多關於我們的文化、我們的人民以及我們是誰，但我知道的還不夠人們、消費者和客戶以及我們的社區都知道我們的目的，我們的存在是為了幫助人們前進並充分生活。

We’ve recently put out some ads, we call our Purpose Anthem to talk about progress and progress isn’t overnight. You should look up Purpose on a page of Progressive in Google and you’ll kind of see all the things we’re doing.

我們最近推出了一些廣告，我們稱之為「宗旨讚歌」來談論進步，而進步不是一朝一夕的。您應該在 Google 的 Progressive 頁面上尋找目的，您將看到我們正在做的所有事情。

And so you’re going to be seeing some ads with that that are a little bit more of a delayed response, but a response we believe will be nicely balanced with sort of who we are as a company that you want to be involved with. So we’re excited about our growth. We love competition. Yeah, I think competition will continue to have the right rates and show up in media, but we’re prepared.

所以你會看到一些廣告，這些廣告的反應有點延遲，但我們相信這種反應會很好地平衡我們作為一家你想要參與的公司的形象。因此，我們對我們的成長感到興奮。我們熱愛競爭。是的，我認為競爭將繼續以適當的價格出現在媒體上，但我們已經準備好了。

You might also have some response to both those questions.

您可能也對這兩個問題有一些回應。

Thank you. very helpful.

謝謝。非常有幫助。

The way we operationalize in the marketplace, our objectives there is for our product managers and they are managing at the state and product level and they are assessing the competitive landscape where we sit by segment, they understand elasticity by channel and by locale. And they’re making the calls that level to decide what we should be doing with price. Obviously the 96% is the objective, but to the extent we can manage and grow a lot beneath that, the product managers are going to make those calls.

我們在市場上運作的方式，我們的目標是我們的產品經理，他們在州和產品層面進行管理，他們正在評估我們所在細分市場的競爭格局，他們了解按管道和按地區劃分的彈性。他們正在發出這樣的呼籲來決定我們應該如何處理價格。顯然 96% 是我們的目標，但只要我們能夠在這個目標之下進行管理和成長，產品經理就會做出這些決定。

So I think when you look at our performance over time, you see the aggregate of all those decisions at the local level. So I think that I understand the questions, but I think understanding how we operationalize that in the marketplace is really important to understand our model.

因此，我認為，當你觀察我們一段時間以來的表現時，你會看到地方層級所有這些決策的總和。所以我認為我理解這些問題，但我認為了解我們如何在市場上運作對於理解我們的模型非常重要。

Okay. Very much appreciate that. Thank you. My second question is on retention. So if we look at your 10-Q commentaries, your for Auto business Personal Auto business, the policy life expectancy has been relatively elongated over probably more than a year now, right? And then that’s been stabilized. If I remember correctly, your pricing is relative to the expected life cycle of a policy.

好的。非常感謝。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於保留。因此，如果我們看一下您對汽車業務個人汽車業務的 10-Q 評論，保單預期壽命已經相對延長，現在可能超過一年了，對嗎？然後就穩定下來了。如果我沒記錯的話，您的定價與保單的預期生命週期有關。

So if that life cycle were to stabilize going forward, should we expect that favorable contribution to combined ratio to be less pronounced going forward? In other words, is it right to assume that you’ll probably need some marginal pricing as that life cycle kind of stabilize rather than continue to improve? Did I lose you guys?

因此，如果該生命週期未來趨於穩定，我們是否應該預期對綜合比率的有利貢獻未來將不那麼明顯？換句話說，隨著生命週期趨於穩定而不是繼續改善，您可能需要一些邊際定價，這樣的假設是否正確？我失去你們了嗎？

Excuse me, everyone. One moment as we reconnect the speakers.

對不起，大家。當我們重新連接揚聲器。

Okay. Thanks, Victoria. I apologize for that. I thought that was on your end, but it was on our end. And so if we have questions at the end of the hour, we’ll certainly elongate the time. So Bob, you were asking your second question and I think it was about retention.

好的。謝謝，維多利亞。我對此表示歉意。我以為這是你的事，但這是我們的事。因此，如果我們在一小時結束時有疑問，我們肯定會延長時間。鮑勃，你問了第二個問題，我認為這是關於保留的問題。

I think I must have jinxed us because this weekend when I was preparing, I’m like, this is one of the best quarters in the history of Progressive. This is going to be great, and then of course, our computer crashed. So apologies again.

我想我一定為我們帶來了厄運，因為這個週末當我準備的時候，我想，這是進步隊歷史上最好的季度之一。這會很棒，然後當然，我們的電腦崩潰了。所以再次道歉。

Yeah. Can you guys hear me?

是的。你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Can you guys hear me? Okay. Excellent. Yeah. I’m sure you’ll have even better quarters down the road. So, yeah, question on retention. Your policy life expectancy is kind of, was growing over the last few quarters and now it’s normalizing. Would that have a headwind to your combined ratio as given that you’re essentially pricing towards an expected life expectancy for every policy or you don’t think that’s an issue?

你們聽得到我說話嗎？好的。出色的。是的。我確信您將來會擁有更好的住所。所以，是的，關於保留的問題。您的保單預期壽命在過去幾個季度中有所增長，現在正在正常化。鑑於您基本上是根據每項保單的預期壽命進行定價，或者您認為這不是問題，這是否會對您的綜合比率產生不利影響？

Well, yeah, I mean, I think retention is kind of our Holy Grail. So it’s always an issue to grow our units. So the T12 has been pretty flat and that’s really a lot to do with some of the actions that we’ve taken across the board. T3 was down and that’s a lot on the comparison of last year when it was up 35%.

嗯，是的，我的意思是，我認為保留是我們的聖杯。因此，擴大我們的單位始終是一個問題。所以 T12 的表現相當平淡，這與我們全面採取的一些行動有很大關係。T3 下降了，與去年相比下降了很多，去年上升了 35%。

But yeah, we watch that closely. We don’t want to spend all of the media money to have customers come in and then just leave. So our focus really is those stable rates and great service to continue to improve retention. Do you want to add anything, Pat or John?

但是，是的，我們密切關注這一點。我們不想花費所有的媒體資金來讓顧客進來然後離開。因此，我們的重點實際上是那些穩定的價格和優質的服務，以繼續提高保留率。帕特或約翰，你想補充什麼嗎？

No. I think that’s good. Thanks.

不。我認為這很好。謝謝。

Thanks, Bob. Sorry about that again.

謝謝，鮑伯。再次對此感到抱歉。

Thank you. Really appreciate it.

謝謝。真的很感激。

Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧葛林斯潘與富國銀行。

Hi. Yes. Good morning. My first question, Tricia, I think you did hit on a little bit in your prepared remarks, but it was just about just the Q4, right? I think typically sometimes there’s slower growth because of the holidays and vacation. I’m just trying, want to understand how you think about that dynamic playing out this year, just given continued elevated shopping, as well as your marketing spend and how we could think about PIF gains in the last quarter of the year?

你好。是的。早安.我的第一個問題，Tricia，我認為你在準備好的發言中確實提到了一點，但這只是關於第四季度，對吧？我認為有時由於假期和假期，增長通常會放緩。我只是想了解您如何看待今年的動態，考慮到購物量持續增加，以及您的行銷支出，以及我們如何看待今年最後一個季度 PIF 的收益？

Yeah. Thanks, Elyse. Yeah. We’re going to continue our push throughout the end of 2024. And it’s really, we want to get more than our fair share of the shoppers, even if shoppers are a little bit less in November and December based on the holidays. And really we don’t want to, you could easily say, well, wouldn’t you just pull back a little bit for expenses on media?

是的。謝謝，愛麗絲。是的。我們將在 2024 年底繼續努力。事實上，我們希望吸引更多的購物者，即使 11 月和 12 月的購物者因假期而減少一些。事實上，我們不想這樣做，你可以很容易地說，好吧，你就不能減少一點媒體費用嗎？

But really you want to have that consistent media spend and how and be prepared for that response and that shopping that we believe and normally typically happens in that first quarter. So it’s really about, relative to our peers, are we in a good position, a better position? We believe that we are.

但實際上，您希望保持一致的媒體支出，以及如何為這種反應和購物做好準備，我們相信通常會在第一季發生這種情況。所以，真正的問題是，相對於我們的同行，我們是否處於一個有利的位置，一個更好的位置？我們相信我們是。

And then my second question, right? And obviously record growth here for Progressive this year, as you think about the environment, right? You guys are obviously taking less rate, industry, right? Perhaps a bit behind you guys. How do you think about 2025? I know there’s a lot of different variables, but just from a growth perspective sitting here today, how do you think next year could play out?

然後我的第二個問題，對嗎？考慮到環境，進步今年顯然創下了成長記錄，對嗎？你們顯然採取了較低的利率，行業，對吧？也許有點落後你們了。您如何看待2025年？我知道有很多不同的變量，但僅從今天坐在這裡的成長角度來看，您認為明年會如何發展？

Yeah. We feel really good and bullish about 2025. And you’re going to look at some stats that we talked about in our Q. I mean, 117% new app growth on the direct side, 98% on the agency side. Those are massive amounts. And obviously the comps will be more difficult, but that doesn’t mean on a relative basis, in a unit basis, we’re not going to grow literally as fast as we can.

是的。我們對 2025 年感覺非常好和樂觀。您將看到我們在問題中討論的一些統計數據。這些都是巨額金額。顯然，競爭會更加困難，但這並不意味著在相對基礎上，在單位基礎上，我們不會盡可能快速地成長。

And we feel so much better about our rates, especially on the private passenger auto part, commercial and product. We’re still having rate earn in, but we feel bullish about our positioning as well and our de-risking on the Property side.

我們對我們的價格感覺好多了，特別是在私人乘用車零件、商業和產品方面。我們仍然有利率收益，但我們也對我們的定位和房地產方面的去風險感到樂觀。

We feel like we really look at our growth from our strategic pillars. So we’ve got a great culture and great people. We are very adequately staffed, especially in our call center organizations for sales and service and our claims organization to take care of our customers. We reduce our expenses on the non-acquisition expense ratio, because we care deeply about those competitive rates.

我們覺得我們真正從戰略支柱來看我們的成長。所以我們擁有偉大的文化和優秀的人民。我們的人員配備非常充足，特別是在我們負責銷售和服務的呼叫中心組織以及負責照顧客戶的索賠組織中。我們減少了非收購費用率的支出，因為我們非常關心這些有競爭力的費率。

We continue our segmentation. So you’ve got people and culture, you’ve got competitive rates, you’ve got our brand, which continues to evolve and you’ve got our broad coverage. We’re going to be where, when and how customers want to shop. With those four strategic pillars and where we’re at from a pricing perspective and a marketing perspective, I think, we have a huge opportunity in 2025.

我們繼續我們的細分。因此，您擁有人才和文化，您擁有具有競爭力的價格，您擁有我們不斷發展的品牌，並且您擁有我們廣泛的覆蓋範圍。我們將滿足顧客想要的地點、時間和方式的購物需求。我認為，憑藉這四大策略支柱以及我們從定價角度和行銷角度來看，我們在 2025 年將擁有巨大的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Elyse.

謝謝，愛麗絲。

Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯和奧本海默。

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to, oops, sorry, thanks. I wanted to drill down on the frequency severity trends that you put on the queue, specifically the BI liability. It looks like, anything to make of, it looks like the severity kind of moved up a bit and frequency kind of didn’t improve as much as 2Q. Anything to make of that? Thanks.

謝謝。早安.我想，哎呀，抱歉，謝謝。我想深入了解您放入佇列的頻率嚴重性趨勢，特別是 BI 責任。看起來，無論怎樣，嚴重程度似乎有所上升，而頻率卻沒有像第二季度那樣改善那麼多。有什麼可做的嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. From a BI perspective, it’s a little bit higher some of the other line coverage. Mostly that is in higher large losses and more soft tissue injuries where there are attorney-repped. So that ends up usually being more expensive. And I’m sure you’re reading a lot on social inflation and we have seen across the industry some pretty elevated jury verdicts that we believe are pretty egregious.

是的。從 BI 角度來看，它比其他一些線路覆蓋率要高一些。主要是在有律師代表的情況下，損失更大，軟組織損傷更多。所以最終通常會更貴。我確信您讀了很多有關社會通貨膨脹的文章，我們已經在整個行業中看到了一些相當高的陪審團裁決，我們認為這些裁決非常令人震驚。

So we’re always keeping our eye on that. And bodily injury trends are less of a step function than were what happened with like used car prices where there was just sort of a confluence of events in terms of shortages of chips and all the things that came into play when car prices were risen.

因此，我們始終關注這一點。與二手車價格相比，身體傷害趨勢不像二手車價格那樣是階躍函數，在二手車價格中，晶片短缺以及汽車價格上漲時發揮作用的所有因素只是一系列事件的結合。

When you look at the history of BI trend, it sort of continues to move up based on attorney representation, based on medical bills, et cetera. So we’re not too concerned about one quarter and we feel like we have our arms around the BI trends.

當您查看 BI 趨勢的歷史時，您會發現它會根據律師代表、醫療費用等繼續上升。因此，我們不太關心四分之一，我們感覺我們已經掌握了 BI 趨勢。

Okay. Good. Thank you. And then second question just on homeowners. Can you remind us where you are with I guess the PIF reductions and cat exposed dates?

好的。好的。謝謝。然後是關於房主的第二個問題。你能提醒我們你對 PIF 減少和貓暴露日期的了解如何嗎？

Yeah. So we talked a little bit about our PIF growth. So we’re up 19% in our growth states and down 9% in our volatile states. We continue to have a really robust derisking program. So you’ve seen the rate come in. We had 16 points year-to-date, 20 on the trailing 12, 5 more points to earn in this year. And then we have other rates that are elevating. So that’s the first one, get the right rates on the street.

是的。因此，我們討論了 PIF 的成長。因此，我們在成長狀態下成長了 19%，在波動狀態下下降了 9%。我們繼續擁有真正強大的去風險計劃。所以您已經看到了匯率的變化。年初至今我們已經拿到了 16 分，在落後的 12 支球隊中拿到了 20 分，今年我們還需要贏得 5 分。然後我們還有其他正在上升的利率。所以這是第一個，在街上獲得合適的價格。

We talked a lot about segmentation and what we’ve been working off, our 5.0 product. Segmentation is something that we believe we are industry leaders in and we need to be at least in auto for sure in Commercial Auto. And we will be there in Property as we continue to work on segmentation.

我們談論了很多關於細分和我們一直在研究的 5.0 產品。我們相信我們在細分領域處於行業領先地位，並且我們至少需要在汽車領域成為商用汽車領域的領導者。當我們繼續致力於細分時，我們將在房地產領域開展工作。

We talked about exiting about 115,000 homes in Florida last year. That takes some time by the time you communicate it to insureds and you’re able to do that. And of course there can be moratoriums after states. And we’ve been exiting DP3 in many states. That’s obviously, we have to have prior approval through our DOIs, but we have approval in about 22 states and are working with many more to exit that line of coverage.

去年我們談到了佛羅裡達州約 115,000 套房屋的退出。當您將其傳達給被保險人並且您能夠做到這一點時，這需要一些時間。當然，在各州之後可能會有暫停。我們已經在許多州退出了 DP3。顯然，我們必須通過 DOI 獲得事先批准，但我們在大約 22 個州獲得了批准，並且正在與更多州合作以退出該覆蓋範圍。

And then really it’s about cost sharing. We don’t want homeowners to be a maintenance program. So we have a mandatory wind and hail deductibles, and those are kind of being through the system.

事實上，這與成本分攤有關。我們不希望房主成為維護計劃。因此，我們有強制性的風和冰雹免賠額，這些都是透過系統進行的。

And then lastly, just conversations with our agents on putting high quality business and high quality bundled business, which is usually preferred in owner occupied homes on the Progressive balance sheet.

最後，只需與我們的代理商進行對話，將高品質業務和高品質捆綁業務放在漸進式資產負債表上，這通常是業主自住房屋的首選。

So we got it it’s a multi-tiered plan. We knew it would take a while. We signaled this a while ago, but I feel very good about where we’re at. But clearly having two huge hurricanes less than a week apart really elevates what our plan has been for a while and what will be in the future.

所以我們明白了，這是一個多層次的計劃。我們知道這需要一段時間。我們不久前就發出了這個訊號，但我對我們目前的處境感到非常滿意。但顯然，兩次相隔不到一周的巨大颶風確實提升了我們一段時間以來的計劃以及未來的計劃。

Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝。欣賞它。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

格雷戈里·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone. I know you’ve mentioned trying to leverage your agent compensation program to reward profitable business. Maybe you can spend a minute and just give us a snapshot if you’ve changed how you’re rewarding your agents and how they’re helping you underwrite business, new business as it comes in the door.

大家早安。我知道您曾提到嘗試利用您的代理商薪酬計劃來獎勵有利可圖的業務。如果您改變了獎勵代理商的方式以及他們幫助您承保業務、新業務的方式，也許您可以花一點時間向我們簡要介紹。

Yeah. I’ll let Pat give more color than I will, but we’re constantly evolving our agents and we have agents that are more specialized. It’s preferred bundling. We have our platinum agents. We have agents that have typically been more on SAMs, maybe some mom and pops, but we constantly evolve our compensation to make sure that we put high quality business on the books, but also reward those agents for that business. Pat, do you want to give any more color on that?

是的。我會讓帕特比我提供更多的色彩，但我們會不斷發展我們的代理，並且我們擁有更專業的代理。這是首選的捆綁方式。我們有白金代理商。我們的代理商通常更注重 SAM，也許是一些夫妻店，但我們不斷改進薪酬，以確保我們將高品質的業務記入帳簿，同時也獎勵那些從事該業務的代理商。帕特，你想對此提供更多的顏色嗎？

Sure. We have an aligned national commission structure that we have in place for either our Property agents, so those with the full suite of products or those without access to our Property products. And those matrices are designed to reward higher quality business and greater volume of business.

當然。我們有一個一致的國家委員會結構，我們為我們的房地產經紀人，即那些擁有全套產品的人或那些無法使用我們的房地產產品的人設立了一個統一的國家委員會結構。這些矩陣旨在獎勵更高品質的業務和更大的業務量。

And over time, what we see is agents respond well to understanding what the targets are, understanding how the framework works and understanding how their behaviors and the actions allocating different business to Progressive can result in better compensation for their agencies.

隨著時間的推移，我們看到代理商對了解目標是什麼、了解框架如何運作以及了解他們的行為以及將不同業務分配給Progressive 的行動如何為其代理商帶來更好的報酬做出了良好的反應。

Now, Tricia mentioned on the quality side of things, as we pivot and start to invest more to turn the Property business around, there are tactics within the agency channel that will ensure that agents know they have to be bundling business with us, they have to write with our underwriting guidelines in mind and we measure that through underwriting cancel rates, and they have to produce a certain amount of volume to retain their Property appointment with us.

現在，特里西亞提到了事情的品質方面，當我們轉向並開始投入更多資金來扭轉房地產業務時，代理商管道內有一些策略將確保代理商知道他們必須與我們捆綁業務，他們有考慮到我們的承保指南，我們透過承保取消率來衡量這一點，並且他們必須產生一定數量的數量才能保留與我們的財產預約。

And we think those three in combination with a very clear, transparent national compensation plan, agents understand what we’re offering, how we fit in their agencies, and ultimately, how we can mutually benefit by producing high quality, profitable business.

我們認為，這三者結合非常清晰、透明的國家薪酬計劃，代理商了解我們提供的服務、我們如何融入他們的代理機構，以及最終我們如何透過開展高品質、盈利的業務來實現互惠互利。

Makes sense. For my follow-up question, in your letter, Tricia, you said you have nearly 4.2 million more policies in force than you did at the end of last year. In response to some of the questions in your prepared remarks, you talked about how you’re fully staffed.

有道理。對於我的後續問題，Tricia，您在信中表示，您的有效保單比去年年底多了近 420 萬份。在回答您準備好的發言中的一些問題時，您談到了您的人員配備。

Maybe you can give us a sense of how you’re keeping fully staffed with such tremendous growth in a macro environment, it seems, full employment, and maybe segue, one of the things that we never get much information from you or many of your peers is how you’re deploying technology and artificial intelligence, and maybe that’s helping you with the growth in policy in force. So any commentary on that would be great.

也許你可以讓我們了解一下，在宏觀環境下，你是如何在如此巨大的增長中保持充分的人員配備，似乎是充分就業，也許是繼續，這是我們從未從你或許多人那裡得到太多資訊的事情之一。所以任何對此的評論都會很棒。

Yeah. That’s a really great question. So what we’ve been doing, the only time that I can recall we had difficulty in hiring and retaining was sort of when the wage wars started right after the pandemic. So after that, we’ve done a couple of things.

是的。這是一個非常好的問題。所以我們一直在做的事情，我記得我們唯一一次在招募和留住人才方面遇到困難是在大流行之後工資戰開始的時候。之後，我們做了幾件事。

We’ve hired well in advance of need. So when you think about being a fully licensed sales rep in our call center or a fully trained claims rep out in the field, it takes some time. And so that’s, well, it’s maybe a more expensive venture at first blush. We think that pays for itself because we have high quality people handling your calls, handling your claims.

我們在需要之前就已經進行了招募。因此，當您考慮成為我們呼叫中心的完全許可銷售代表或現場訓練有素的索賠代表時，需要一些時間。因此，乍一看，這可能是一項更昂貴的冒險。我們認為這是值得的，因為我們有高素質的人員處理您的電話、處理您的索賠。

And in fact, we were able to deploy between our own employees and independent appraisers to help us with the storms. 2,300 people sort of feed in the street, getting early contacts and early closures in our catastrophes, which is what our customers need us most. So we feel really good about that.

事實上，我們能夠在我們自己的員工和獨立評估師之間部署來幫助我們度過難關。 2,300 人在街上吃飯，在我們的災難中儘早獲得聯繫並儘早關閉，這正是我們的客戶最需要我們的。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

From a technology and efficiency perspective, we are always talking about how do we become more efficient? One, to keep prices competitive, but two, can we take easier claims, easier calls out of the system and have humans actually handle the more complex calls?

從技術和效率的角度來看，我們總是在談論如何變得更有效率？第一，為了保持價格的競爭力，但第二，我們能否在系統中採取更簡單的索賠、更簡單的調用，並讓人類真正處理更複雜的調用？

So we have overall what you can call it, AI, ChatGPT, large language miles. We’ve been working on those for a long time to become more efficient. We’ve had a chatbot in our call centers for over a decade because we found out we were getting repetitive calls that really didn’t require human intervention and that took out about 15% of our calls.

所以我們整體上擁有你可以稱之為的人工智慧、ChatGPT、大語言里程。我們長期以來一直致力於這些工作，以提高效率。我們的呼叫中心使用聊天機器人已經有十多年了，因為我們發現我們經常接到重複的呼叫，而這些呼叫實際上並不需要人工幹預，而且它接聽了大約 15% 的呼叫。

On the claim side, we have a lot of automation with our estimates. We have tagged millions and millions of pictures to be able to do that. And of course, we want to make sure that we do have human intervention to make sure we always pay the right amount and that we’re accurate in that part of it.

在索賠方面，我們的估算有許多自動化。為了做到這一點，我們已經標記了數以百萬計的圖片。當然，我們希望確保我們確實有人工幹預，以確保我們始終支付正確的金額，並且我們在該部分的金額是準確的。

But we’re very technology driven. Besides being efficient, we want to be innovative. And we want to continue to learn and make sure that we use the highly trained individuals that we have for the most complex parts of our business.

但我們非常注重科技驅動。除了高效之外，我們還希望創新。我們希望繼續學習並確保我們使用訓練有素的人員來處理我們業務中最複雜的部分。

So we use a lot of AI. Maybe that’s something we can talk about at a later deep dive when we have some time in one of the quarters that we do that. But we feel like that’s a key part overall in our efficiency, which is key to our growth.

所以我們大量使用人工智慧。也許這是我們可以在稍後深入探討時，當我們有時間在我們這樣做的一個季度中討論的事情。但我們認為這是我們整體效率的關鍵部分，也是我們成長的關鍵。

Thank you for the detail.

謝謝你的詳細資料。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 合作。

Hi. Good morning. So most of my questions were answered, but just it seems like many of your competitors are shifting their focus to growth as their margins have recovered. So just wondering what you’re seeing in terms of competitor behavior on marketing spending and on pricing. And is it reasonable to assume that your growth over the next few quarters should slow down just as the market becomes more competitive?

你好。早安.我的大部分問題都得到了解答，但隨著利潤的恢復，許多競爭對手似乎正在將重點轉向成長。因此，我想知道您所看到的競爭對手在行銷支出和定價方面的行為。隨著市場競爭變得更加激烈，您在未來幾季的成長應該會放緩，這樣的假設是否合理？

Yeah. I think, like I said before, our competitors, what I would say is, we got out ahead of the game. We saw what we needed. We knew that that would be frustrating because we had to raise rates so significantly to keep up with trend. We did that quickly. And our plan was that would allow us to be in a position to grow and it certainly has paid off.

是的。我認為，就像我之前說過的那樣，我們的競爭對手，我想說的是，我們領先對手。我們看到了我們需要的東西。我們知道這會令人沮喪，因為我們必須大幅提高利率才能跟上趨勢。我們很快就做到了。我們的計劃是讓我們能夠成長，而且它肯定已經得到了回報。

We are seeing and if you see any of the quarterly results, margins are so much better with our competition and so I would imagine that they will continue to grow. We’ve seen some of our competitors, for sure, start to spend more on media.

我們看到，如果你看到任何季度業績，我們的競爭對手的利潤率要好得多，所以我想他們會繼續成長。當然，我們已經看到我們的一些競爭對手開始在媒體上投入更多資金。

What for us, competition is good. And it really is about, like I said, having all those strategic players firing at the same time. So while I can’t predict what our growth will be, we have models, obviously, internally that we work on.

對我們來說，競爭是好事。正如我所說，這確實是讓所有策略參與者同時開火。因此，雖然我無法預測我們的成長情況，但顯然我們有內部研究的模型。

I believe we’re in a really great position to wrap up 2024 and move into 2025. And I feel very confident that we will continue to gain traction. Of course, given all the unknowns that could happen with weather and what we’ve seen over the last several years.

我相信我們處於非常有利的位置，可以結束 2024 年並進入 2025 年。我非常有信心我們將繼續獲得牽引力。當然，考慮到天氣可能發生的所有未知因素以及我們過去幾年所看到的情況。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah. The only thing that I would add is.

是的。我唯一要補充的是。

and then.

進而。

Spending more.

花費更多。

Hold on for a second, Jimmy. I think I wanted Pat to add on some color on that for you.

等一下，吉米。我想我想讓帕特為你添加一些色彩。

The only thing I would add is that segmentation matters. So spending more isn’t necessarily going to drive the outcome folks desire. It’s spending it smartly and understanding the lifetime value of the customer and the media that we use to reach those customers.

我唯一要補充的是，細分很重要。因此，花更多的錢並不一定能帶來人們想要的結果。它是明智地花錢並了解客戶的終身價值以及我們用來接觸這些客戶的媒體。

So we think given our scale and given the analytics we have in place, we are creating segmentation in the media world like we have in the product segmentation space. And that segmentation enables us to understand where to spend more efficiently based on who we’re able to acquire and it’s not just about spending more overall, it’s spending it in the right places.

因此，我們認為，考慮到我們的規模和我們現有的分析，我們正在媒體世界中創建細分，就像我們在產品細分領域一樣。這種細分使我們能夠根據我們能夠收購的人來了解在哪裡更有效地支出，這不僅僅是在總體上增加支出，而是將其支出在正確的地方。

Additionally, I think when you see what we do on the product segmentation side, we do think that creating adverse selection for our competitors through matching rate to risk more precisely does inflate their trend different than ours over time and that synthetic trend we think requires them over time to potentially have to adjust rates differently than we have.

此外，我認為，當您看到我們在產品細分方面所做的工作時，我們確實認為，透過更精確地匹配利率與風險來為我們的競爭對手創造逆向選擇，確實會隨著時間的推移誇大他們的趨勢與我們不同，我們認為綜合趨勢需要它們隨著時間的推移，可能需要以與我們不同的方式調整利率。

So we’re pretty confident that at this point. We are efficient in our spend. And as Tricia mentioned, we monitor it extremely closely and we’ll adjust as needed over time, but we play our game and we managed our economics and they look good at this point.

所以我們目前對此非常有信心。我們的支出非常有效率。正如特里西亞所提到的，我們非常密切地監控它，我們會隨著時間的推移根據需要進行調整，但我們玩我們的遊戲，我們管理我們的經濟，他們在這一點上看起來很好。

Thanks. And it seems like obviously there’s been a lot of talk about Personal interest in Commercial Lines. Can you just talk about what you’re seeing in terms of long-term trends in Personal Auto as it relates to litigation, attorney rep rates and stuff?

謝謝。顯然，人們對商業領域的個人興趣進行了許多討論。您能否談談您所看到的個人汽車領域與訴訟、律師代表費率等相關的長期趨勢？

Yeah. Attorney rep rates have risen over the years. Again, not as a function, they’ve risen, you can probably tell just by advertising from that perspective. Medical trends, as you know, from just medical insurance have continued to go up.

是的。律師代表費率多年來一直在上升。再說一遍，它們並不是作為一種功能而崛起，你可以從這個角度透過廣告來判斷。如您所知，僅醫療保險的醫療趨勢就持續上升。

So it’s continued to trend upward, we priced for that. And some of the social inflation, like I said, with some egregious verdicts in the industry are always troublesome because it ends up, consumers have to pay for that and so we always want to get our arms around.

因此，它繼續呈上升趨勢，我們對此進行了定價。正如我所說，一些社會通貨膨脹以及行業中一些令人震驚的判決總是很麻煩，因為最終消費者必須為此付出代價，所以我們總是想伸出援手。

It’s really about doing what we have done well for many, many years and that is making sure that our customers know we’re there for them, that they can trust us to do the right thing by them and that I try to get out in front of the claim with contacts and resolution as quickly as possible or when it’s a longer term claim to make sure that we communicate and respect their needs along the way.

這實際上是關於做我們多年來一直做得很好的事情，那就是確保我們的客戶知道我們在他們身邊，他們可以相信我們會為他們做正確的事情，並且我會盡力盡快透過聯繫和解決來解決索賠問題，或當索賠是長期索賠時，確保我們一路溝通並尊重他們的需求。

So that’s what we’ve been doing since we rolled out IR years and years ago or immediate response, I should say, years ago. Just get in front of the customers, make sure they know we’re there and we want them to trust us and that we’ll be fair.

這就是我們自從多年前推出 IR 以來一直在做的事情，或者我應該說，多年前推出即時回應以來我們一直在做的事情。只需站在客戶面前，確保他們知道我們就在那裡，我們希望他們信任我們並且我們會公平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden with Evercore.

大衛莫特瑪登與 Evercore。

Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I had a question on just the auto PIF growth and I’m wondering if Hurricane Helene had a notable impact in Florida or the Carolinas on auto shopping and PIF gains at the end of September and if Milton Hurricane Milton, is causing any disruption on retention or shopping just given the impacts of that storm?

嘿。謝謝。早安.我有一個關於汽車PIF 增長的問題，我想知道颶風海倫是否對佛羅裡達州或卡羅萊納州的汽車購物和9 月底的PIF 增長產生了顯著影響，以及米爾頓颶風米爾頓是否對汽車購物和PIF 成長產生了顯著影響。

Yes. I wouldn’t say anything. The PIF growth wouldn’t come from that necessarily. Obviously, there’ll be some total loss vehicles that when they replace, we hope they’ll be Progressive. I think that, I had asked John Murphy, our President of Claims a while ago, if we were seeing issues with inventory for new cars, I thought that could be something that could be a headwind for consumers, and they didn’t see inventory issues.

是的。我不會說什麼。PIF 的成長不一定來自於此。顯然，會有一些完全損失的車輛，當它們被替換時，我們希望它們是漸進式的。我認為，不久前我曾問過我們的理賠總裁約翰墨菲，如果我們發現新車庫存有問題，我認為這可能會對消費者造成不利影響，但他們沒有看到庫存問題。

There’s enough inventory, we believe, on the street to be able to take care of those customers. But the storm, although they were big, I don’t think would move the needle on either of those.

我們相信，街上有足夠的庫存來照顧這些顧客。但風暴雖然很大，但我認為不會對其中任何一個產生影響。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then on the cost per sale that you spoke about, I think, last quarter it was like 30% below your targeted acquisition ratio. I’m wondering where that stood here in third quarter as some of the competition returns and maybe just also if you could just talk about if ambient shopping levels, sounds like they remain high, but did they have they fallen any at all here during the last three months? Thank you.

然後，關於您談到的每次銷售成本，我認為上個季度比您的目標收購率低了 30%。我想知道隨著一些競爭的回歸，第三季的情況如何，也許你也可以談談環境購物水平是否聽起來仍然很高，但在這段期間他們是否有任何下降？謝謝。

Yeah. I’m going to try to answer that. You were breaking up a little bit. I’m going to assume that’s on our side. I would say we continue to see elevated shopping, continue to see a hard market and so we’re going to leverage that.

是的。我將嘗試回答這個問題。你們分手了一點。我假設那是我們這邊的。我想說的是，我們繼續看到購物量增加，並繼續看到艱難的市場，所以我們將利用這一點。

And again, I talked a little bit in an earlier answer on we’ve got our sort of direct response, which we see right away with our highest NP6, which are new prospects, which of course, we equate to our, the apps that are such high growth on both the direct and agency side, but then also some delayed response.

再說一次，我在之前的回答中談到我們已經得到了直接的回應，我們立即看到我們最高的 NP6，這是新的前景，當然，我們將其等同於我們的應用程序直接和代理方面的成長都如此之高，但也有一些延遲的反應。

And so we believe ambient shopping is still up because even with the increased amount that we’ve spent and we’ll spend in quarter four on the delayed response ad, we’re still seeing that shopping. So we feel good about that. I want to make sure I answered your question because you were breaking up a little bit. Does that answer your question?

因此，我們認為環境購物仍在增加，因為即使我們在第四季度在延遲回應廣告上花費的金額有所增加，我們仍然會看到這種購物。所以我們對此感覺良好。我想確保我回答了你的問題，因為你們有點分手了。這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yeah. That does help on the ambient shopping. I had just asked on just how much below the targeted acquisition spend the cost per sale is. In third quarter, I think, it was 30% below in the first half of the year. Is that still pretty far below your target?

是的。這確實有助於環境購物。我剛剛問過每次銷售成本比目標收購支出低多少。我認為第三季比上半年低了 30%。這仍然遠低於你的目標嗎？

All I’m saying is that it’s still below tax. So our CPS for quarter three is still below our target acquisition cost. And again, like Pat said, we continue, and I just had an incredible two-day media business review. We continue to understand exactly how to reach the consumers we want to reach and get more efficient with doing that all across the Board.

我想說的是，它仍然低於稅費。因此，我們第三季的 CPS 仍然低於我們的目標購買成本。再次，就像帕特所說，我們繼續，我剛剛進行了為期兩天的令人難以置信的媒體業務回顧。我們繼續準確地了解如何接觸我們想要接觸的消費者，並透過全面進行這項工作來提高效率。

I think normally we’ll talk about mass media spend and that’s a portion of our spend, but there’s so many other ways that we are able to be on the short list for consumers who are shopping. So we feel good about where we’re at right now with CPS below tax.

我認為通常我們會談論大眾媒體支出，這是我們支出的一部分，但還有很多其他方式可以讓我們進入購物消費者的候選名單。因此，我們對目前 CPS 低於稅費的情況感到滿意。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Meredith with UBS.

瑞銀集團的布萊恩‧梅雷迪思。

Yeah. Thanks. Tricia, I was hoping you could comment a little bit about this really favorable frequency we’ve been seeing for the last 12 months. Is this something you think is sustainable? Is it a function of the hard market and auto insurance? What is your perspective on it?

是的。謝謝。Tricia，我希望您能對我們在過去 12 個月中看到的這個非常有利的頻率發表一些評論。您認為這是可持續的嗎？這是硬市場和汽車保險的功能嗎？您對此有何看法？

Thanks, Brian. For us, what we’ve seen is really the biggest proportion of that is equated to our mix our preferred mix has increased, and so that’s obviously a lower frequency. We’re a little bit less negative than we were before, but still again, obviously negative 5. So we will continue to watch that as we grow and put more customers on the book. Obviously, we always want to make our target profit margins both on a calendar year and lifetime value.

謝謝，布萊恩。對於我們來說，我們所看到的實際上是我們的組合的最大比例，我們的首選組合增加了，所以這顯然是一個較低的頻率。我們的負面情緒比以前少了一些，但仍然明顯是負面的 5。因此，隨著我們的成長並吸引更多客戶加入我們的書，我們將繼續關注這一點。顯然，我們始終希望在日曆年和終身價值上實現目標利潤率。

Got you. So mix. Got you. And then second question just quickly.

明白你了。所以混合。明白你了。然後很快就第二個問題。

Yeah.

是的。

Where are new money yields relative to book yields right now in the investment portfolio? Is there still some uplift in book yields going forward, do you think?

目前投資組合中的新資金收益率相對於帳面收益率處於什麼位置？您認為未來帳面收益率還會上升嗎？

Yeah. I’ll let Jon Bauer get on because he’s always on these calls and never gets to talk. But yeah, we’ve been happy that we’ve been able to invest new money into higher yielding performance. And Jon, I’ll let you go into some of the detail.

是的。我會讓喬恩·鮑爾接聽，因為他總是接聽這些電話，但從來沒有機會說話。但是，是的，我們很高興能夠將新資金投入更高收益的業績。喬恩，我會讓你了解一些細節。

Yeah. Thanks very much. As you’ve been seeing over the last, throughout the course of the last few years, but certainly over the last few months, there’s been quite a lot of volatility in interest rates, especially as we headed towards the election and the Fed started cutting rates.

是的。非常感謝。正如您在過去幾年中看到的那樣，尤其是在過去幾個月中，利率出現了很大的波動，尤其是在我們接近大選和大選的時候。

For us, as you know, we have a relatively short duration portfolio, just a little bit over three years. And so the two things that are going to really adjust the new money yields versus the book yields would be the underlying level of interest rates, which has risen quite significantly since the end of the third quarter. And then as well as we allocate money into and out of cash and treasuries into other risk products.

如您所知，對我們來說，我們的投資組合期限相對較短，只有三年多一點。因此，真正調整新貨幣收益率與帳面收益率的兩件事將是基本利率水平，自第三季末以來，利率水準已大幅上升。然後，我們將現金和國債中的資金分配到其他風險產品。

Right now we have a relatively conservative allocation. And so if we were to shift that, that would increase book yields over time. But obviously the underlying movement in interest rates as will likely increase prospective book yields if they were to maintain around this level.

目前我們的分配相對保守。因此，如果我們改變這一點，隨著時間的推移，帳面收益率將會增加。但顯然，如果利率維持在這一水平附近，潛在的利率變動可能會增加預期的帳面收益率。

But I would just want to point out that for Progressive, the driving force in our investment strategy is a total rate of return strategy. So the book yield is an output of the decisions we make. But for us, we’re really looking to drive the strongest total return over the longer term. Does that answer your question?

但我只想指出，對Progressive來說，我們投資策略的驅動力是總報酬率策略。因此，帳面收益率是我們所做決策的輸出。但對我們來說，我們真正希望在長期內實現最強勁的總回報。這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yeah. That does. That’s terrific. Thank you.

是的。確實如此。那太棒了。謝謝。

Meyer Shields with KBW.

邁耶希爾茲 (Meyer Shields) 與 KBW 合作。

Great. Great. Thank you very much. So in the past, I know we’ve talked about the ordered pairs where sometimes, I guess, Progressive will maintain excess profits if the growth trade-off isn’t necessarily worth it. I was hoping you could give us some insight into how much of the Personal Line margin outperformance this year is sort of ordered pairs dependent and how much of it is just the fact that you’ve been surprised by loss trends?

偉大的。偉大的。非常感謝。因此，在過去，我知道我們已經討論過有序對，有時，我猜想，如果成長權衡不一定值得，Progressive 將保持超額利潤。我希望您能給我們一些見解，讓我們了解今年個人線路利潤率的優異表現有多少是依賴有序配對的，其中有多少只是您對損失趨勢感到驚訝的事實？

Well, I think, I’ll let Pat weigh in a little bit more. But I think the margin comes from so many different things. So if are we efficient in our spend to get more customers? So I wouldn’t say I wouldn’t call it excess profits. I would say we look at every dollar premium and what outputs we think would happen based on our frequency and severity trends, what we think we could spend to get more customers, the new and renewal business.

好吧，我想，我會讓帕特再權衡一下。但我認為利潤來自很多不同的因素。那麼，我們的支出能否有效吸引更多客戶呢？所以我不會說我不會稱之為超額利潤。我想說，我們會考慮每一美元的溢價，以及我們認為根據我們的頻率和嚴重性趨勢會發生什麼產出，我們認為我們可以花多少錢來獲得更多客戶、新業務和續訂業務。

And we go to each state, each product, et cetera, roll it up, roll it down and come to that. And then if we’re inefficient in our spend, then we’ll either try to get more efficient or pull back. If our margins shrink, we’ll pull back. We have a lot of different levers, but really it all goes under the umbrella of grow as fast as we can at or below our 96%. Pat, do you want to add anything?

我們去每個州、每種產品等等，把它捲起來，捲起來，然後得出結論。然後，如果我們的支出效率低下，那麼我們要么嘗試提高效率，要么縮減支出。如果我們的利潤縮水，我們就會撤退。我們有很多不同的槓桿，但實際上這一切都在我們以 96% 或低於 96% 的速度盡可能快地增長的範圍內。帕特，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yeah. And I would say that the growth that we’re seeing wasn’t expected earlier in the year. So we knew we had shields up when we were slowing the business down to deliver 2023 calendar year profitability and as we’ve reduced some of those verification tactics and gotten, frankly, more competitive with billing options, et cetera, we have seen, as you see in the reports, outsized growth.

是的。我想說的是，我們所看到的增長是今年早些時候沒有預料到的。因此，當我們放慢業務速度以實現2023 日曆年盈利能力時，我們知道我們有防護措施，並且隨著我們減少了其中一些驗證策略，坦率地說，在計費選項等方面變得更具競爭力，我們已經看到，正如您在報告中看到的那樣，增長速度驚人。

So I don’t think we entered the year saying we think we can produce this level of profit and growth on a significantly extended period.

因此，我認為我們在進入這一年時並沒有說我們可以在相當長的一段時間內實現這種水平的利潤和增長。

So right now you see we’ve taken rates down a small amount in a number of states. And as John mentioned, our product managers constantly evolve that competitive environment to see how much ambient shopping there is, how efficient our media spend is and as we come into kind of the slower shopping period of the year, we’ll be monitoring our spend and our rate level to make sure we can grow as fast as our staffing levels and service levels enable us to.

所以現在你看到我們已經在一些州小幅降低了利率。正如約翰所提到的，我們的產品經理不斷發展這種競爭環境，以了解環境購物的數量、我們的媒體支出的效率如何，當我們進入一年中的購物較慢時期時，我們將監控我們的支出和我們的費率水平，以確保我們能夠以我們的人員配備水平和服務水平使我們能夠達到的速度增長。

So we’ve got some really high comps coming into next year and feel great about how we’re closing out this year. But I don’t I think the growth is the piece of the ordered pair that was outperforming this year and it wasn’t certainly in our plan at the outset to be able to capture as much growth as we have. But with competitors raising rates and restricting access to new business, your media becomes really efficient when there’s not a lot of people competing for the clicks or in market with competitive rates for the shoppers.

因此，我們明年將獲得一些非常高的補償，並且對今年的收官情況感到非常滿意。但我不這麼認為——我認為成長是今年表現出色的訂購對中的一部分，而且我們一開始的計劃並不一定是能夠獲得如此多的增長。但隨著競爭對手提高費率並限制新業務的進入，當沒有很多人爭奪點擊量或在市場上為購物者提供有競爭力的費率時，您的媒體就會變得非常有效率。

Yeah. What I would add on that as well is and we talked about this a little bit when we had our media deep dive a quarter or so ago. We are so flexible with our media spend. And the last couple of years, unfortunately we’ve had to pull back because of margins.

是的。我還要補充的是，大約一個季度前我們進行媒體深入探討時，我們對此進行了一些討論。我們的媒體支出非常靈活。不幸的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們因為利潤問題而不得不縮減規模。

This year, Pat and his team have come to me to increase media on several occasions and being able to be that nimble to do that and not say, okay, we have a budget at the beginning of the year which we do, we set a budget for a year we think will happen. But having that flexibility and turning things on and off pretty quickly to sort of open up or close the spigot has been key this year to open up the spigot.

今年，帕特和他的團隊多次來找我增加媒體，並且能夠靈活地做到這一點，而不是說，好吧，我們在年初有預算，我們確實這樣做了，我們設定了一個預算。但擁有這種靈活性並快速打開和關閉設備以打開或關閉龍頭是今年打開龍頭的關鍵。

Okay. That’s very helpful very detailed. Thank you. Can you give us an insight into, I know there’s obviously this ongoing regional mix shift in Property? What are the other steps that are appropriate to get that line targeted to mine ratios?

好的。這非常有幫助，非常詳細。謝謝。我知道，房地產領域明顯存在著持續的區域組合轉變，您能否讓我們深入了解？為了使該生產線達到礦山比率，還需要採取哪些其他適當步驟？

Well, I think, it’s definitely the rate increases we’ve been taking. I think it’s the geographic mix. It is absolutely the segmentation that will continue to deepen. It’s the cost sharing with customers, like I said, with wind and hail deductibles. And it’s our agency actions, making sure we have solid owner occupied homes on the book that are bundled.

嗯，我認為，這絕對是我們一直在採取的升息措施。我認為這是地理組合。絕對是細分會繼續加深。正如我所說，這是與客戶分攤成本，包括風和冰雹免賠額。這是我們的機構行動，確保我們有可靠的業主自住房屋捆綁在一起。

So it’s not one thing, it’s all the things that I talked about before and it’s just one of those things that takes time and we watch it very closely. And we have a whole team of people that are constantly monitoring where we should be, where we should slow down. But those are it’s just a plethora of things to get it right in and I have confidence that we will.

所以這不是一件事，而是我之前談到的所有事情，這只是需要時間的事情之一，我們需要密切關注。我們有一整個團隊不斷監控我們應該在哪裡，在哪裡應該放慢腳步。但這些只是太多的事情，我有信心我們能做到。

Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

好的。偉大的。太感謝了。

Thank you, Meyer.

謝謝你，邁耶。

Mike Zaremski with BMO.

BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

Hey. Great. Good morning. As a follow-up to, I think it was Brian’s question about frequency, the curve being, your frequency is even better than its historic relationship to the industry. You talked about the mix towards preferred helping. I’m just curious, is there a partial offset longer term? Should just the preferred customer have a different or higher severity inflation trend line than the average of the book?

嘿。偉大的。早安.作為後續，我認為這是布萊恩關於頻率的問題，曲線是，你的頻率甚至比它與行業的歷史關係更好。您談到了首選幫助的組合。我只是好奇，長期來看是否會有部分抵銷？是否只有首選客戶具有與帳面平均不同或更高嚴重程度的通膨趨勢線？

I don’t think there’s anything huge in that. I think the preferred customers could have more products. Obviously, it’s a rate to risk that we’re looking at. It could be stickier with other products that come with us.

我不認為這有什麼大不了的。我認為首選客戶可以擁有更多產品。顯然，我們正在考慮的是風險率。與我們附帶的其他產品相比，它可能會更具黏性。

And really, frequency has been trending down for the last 50 years or 60 years. I’m not sure what stable frequency means because it’s been so oddly volatile over the last four years. But and also, we do want to write any business that we can. Sam Sands writes Robinsons as long as we reach our target profit margin. So we’re fully open for business for any consumer as long as we can make that target profit margins. Thanks, Mike.

事實上，在過去 50 年或 60 年裡，頻率一直呈現下降趨勢。我不確定穩定頻率意味著什麼，因為在過去四年裡它的波動非常奇怪。但是，我們確實想寫任何我們能寫的業務。只要我們達到目標利潤率，山姆桑德斯就會寫信給羅賓遜。因此，只要我們能夠實現目標利潤率，我們就完全向任何消費者開放業務。謝謝，麥克。

Okay. Got it. And my follow-up is switching gears to the competitive environment. So if we think about your average peer, they sell a lot more home insurance than Progressive does and they bundle a lot of that with auto. And I know you guys are obviously increasing your share on home and bundles, but still, I think it’s much smaller than your average competitor or some of your larger competitors.

好的。知道了。我的後續行動是轉向競爭環境。因此，如果我們考慮一下普通同行，他們銷售的家庭保險比 Progressive 多得多，而且他們將許多保險與汽車捆綁在一起。我知道你們顯然正在增加在家庭和捆綁產品上的份額，但我仍然認為它比你們的平均競爭對手或一些較大的競爭對手要小得多。

So I’m curious, so given home insurance is still a hard market and will be for the foreseeable future, is that dynamic causing any of your peers the need to increase the bundle pricing more so than you all are, which is kind of helping you in the competitive environment for you all to gain customers? If that was my question, if you follow it.

所以我很好奇，考慮到家庭保險仍然是一個艱難的市場，並且在可預見的未來，這種動態是否會導致您的任何同行比你們所有人都需要更多地提高捆綁定價，這有點幫助您在競爭激烈的環境中贏得客戶？如果這是我的問題，如果你遵循它。

Yeah. I’ll add in. I mean, I think it’s hard because different competitors do it differently. Some are growing and have Property, but not on their own paper. Some of our competitors have sort of derisked before us and are in a position then to grow, but not necessarily in the places that have the volatile weather. And some are bundled, I mean, a lot, when you look at captive agencies are really sticky because they’re bundled for a long time.

是的。我會補充一下。我的意思是，我認為這很難，因為不同的競爭對手做得不同。有些正在成長並擁有財產，但不是在自己的紙上。我們的一些競爭對手已經在我們之前降低了風險，並有能力實現成長，但不一定是在天氣不穩定的地方。我的意思是，有些是捆綁的，很多，當你看到專屬機構時，它們真的很粘，因為它們捆綁了很長時間。

That eventually, that’s where we want to be able to be, whether the home is on our paper or on the sort of stable group of carriers we work with. We want to make sure that that broad coverage, just be where, when, and how customers want to shop.

最終，這就是我們希望能夠實現的目標，無論房子是在我們的紙上還是在與我們合作的穩定的承運人群體上。我們希望確保廣泛的覆蓋範圍滿足客戶想要的購物地點、時間和方式。

And that’s why we developed, we obviously want to bundle more, but that bundle has to be profitable and but we want to make sure that we can, when people call in, give them what they need, whether it’s on with our Home Quote Explorer, our Auto Quote Explorer, or our Business Quote Explorer. And sometimes, hopefully it’s with us, but if not, we’ll take care of them with customers or I should say businesses that we partner with.

這就是我們開發的原因，我們顯然想要捆綁更多產品，但捆綁產品必須能夠盈利，而且我們希望確保當人們打電話來時，我們可以為他們提供他們需要的東西，無論是使用我們的家庭報價瀏覽器、自動報價瀏覽器或業務報價瀏覽器。有時，希望它與我們一起，但如果沒有，我們將與客戶一起照顧他們，或者我應該說與我們合作的企業。

So the competitive environment we look to, but we really are playing our own game here, especially with Property as we evolve and mature. And you’re right, we don’t have the same probably percentage market share. Clearly we don’t, but we want to take that slowly so that we make prudent decisions for the long-term of the firm.

因此，我們期待競爭環境，但我們確實在這裡玩自己的遊戲，尤其是隨著我們的發展和成熟，我們在房地產方面。你是對的，我們的市佔率可能不一樣。顯然我們不這樣做，但我們希望慢慢來，以便為公司的長期發展做出審慎的決策。

That appears to have been our final question and so that concludes our event. Again, we apologize for the technical difficulties. Victoria, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

這似乎是我們的最後一個問題，我們的活動到此結束。對於技術上的困難，我們再次表示歉意。維多利亞，我會將電話轉回給您以獲取結束腳本。

That concludes the Progressive Corporation third quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive’s website for the next year. You may now disconnect your line.

Progressive Corporation 第三季投資人活動到此結束。有關該活動重播的資訊將於明年在 Progressive 網站的投資者關係部分提供。現在您可以斷開線路。