寶潔 (PG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。今天的活動將被錄像，以便重播。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

本次討論將包含一些前瞻性陳述。如果您查閱寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您會看到可能導致公司實際業績與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its investor relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您知道，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非公認會計準則和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為這些措施能夠為投資者提供有關潛在業務趨勢的有用視角，並已在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非公認會計準則財務指標的完整調節表。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話交給寶潔公司的財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today is John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. I will start with an overview of third quarter results. and spend a few minutes on strategy and innovation. We'll close with guidance for fiscal '25 and then we will take your questions.

各位早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是投資人關係資深副總裁約翰·謝瓦利埃。我將首先概述第三季業績，然後花幾分鐘時間談談策略和創新。我們將以2025財年的業績展望作為結尾，然後回答大家的問題。

Third quarter results on both the top and bottom lines were heavily impacted by consumer and retailer volatility during the quarter, primarily in the US and Europe. As we highlighted at the CAGNY conference in late February, our approach in the face of this near-term volatility is to protect our investment in our long-term health of our brands, innovation and demand creation. We are adjusting our fiscal year guidance in accordance with this approach. Organic sales for the quarter grew 1%.

第三季營收和利潤均受到本季消費者和零售商波動的嚴重影響，主要影響地區為美國和歐洲。正如我們在二月底的 CAGNY 會議上所強調的那樣，面對這種短期波動，我們的策略是保護我們對品牌、創新和需求創造的長期健康的投資。我們將根據此方法調整本財年的業績預期。本季有機銷售額成長1%。

Volume and mix were in line with prior year and pricing at 1 point to organic sales growth. Growth remained relatively broad-based across categories with 7 of 10 product categories holding or growing organic sales for the quarter. Personal Health Care was up high single digits. Skin & Personal Care grew mid-single; Fabric Care, Oral Care, Feminine Care, Grooming and Hair Care were each in line to up low single digits; family Care, Baby Care and Home Care were each down low singles. Organic sales in focus markets grew 1% and enterprise markets grew 2%.

銷售和產品組合與去年持平，定價為1個百分點，實現了有機銷售成長。各品類的成長依然相對全面，10 個產品類別中有 7 個在本季維持或成長了有機銷售額。個人醫療保健支出實現了接近兩位數的成長。皮膚及個人護理用品實現了個位數中段的增長；織物護理、口腔護理、女性護理、男士護理和頭髮護理用品均實現了個位數低段的增長；家庭護理、嬰兒護理和家居護理用品均實現了個位數低段的下降。重點市場的有機銷售額成長了 1%，企業市場成長了 2%。

Organic sales in North America grew 1%. The change versus the 4% growth trend over the last five quarters was driven by a combination of lower consumer offtake across our categories, which is evident in published market data and trade inventory reductions, which we discussed at CAGNY. One encouraging sign is that we returned to shipment levels consistent with the pace of consumer offtake in the month of March. Another positive sign is that market share held up well within the quarter. Europe focus market organic sales were up 1% as our categories saw similar impacts from consumer confidence.

北美有機銷售額成長1%。與過去五個季度 4% 的成長趨勢相比，這次變化是由我們各個品類的消費者需求下降（這在已公佈的市場數據中很明顯）和貿易庫存減少（我們在 CAGNY 上討論過）等因素共同造成的。一個令人鼓舞的跡像是，3 月我們的出貨量恢復到了與消費者需求速度相符的水平。另一個積極的跡像是，市場份額在本季度保持良好。歐洲重點市場有機銷售額成長了 1%，因為我們的各個類別都受到了消費者信心的類似影響。

France continues to be a significant headwind with organic sales down high teens in the quarter versus the base period that grew 20%. We have now annualized the implementation of the [EGalim] law in France and will have easier comps going forward.

法國市場持續構成重大阻力，本季有機銷售額較基期下降近10%，而基期則成長了20%。我們現在已經將法國的[EGalim]法律的實施納入年度計劃，未來將更容易進行比較。

Greater China organic sales declined 2%, a modest step-up on the path back to growth in the region. Notably, SK-II in Greater China grew double digits behind strong consumer response to the super premium LXP innovation and the supporting marketing campaign, underlying market conditions remain relatively soft, but we are encouraged by the progress we're seeing in several categories. Latin America led the enterprise markets, delivering 6% organic sales growth despite difficult consumer dynamics in Mexico.

大中華區有機銷售額下降 2%，這是該地區重回成長軌道上的溫和進步。值得注意的是，SK-II 在大中華區實現了兩位數的成長，這得益於消費者對超高端 LXP 創新和配套行銷活動的強勁反響。儘管市場基本面依然相對疲軟，但我們對在多個品類中看到的進展感到鼓舞。儘管墨西哥的消費情況嚴峻，但拉丁美洲仍引領企業市場，實現了 6% 的有機銷售成長。

European enterprise markets grew low single digits, and the Asia, Middle East, Africa region declined low singles, tensions in the Middle East have remained high and continue to put pressure on markets and US brands. Global aggregate value share was down modestly versus prior year with 27 of our top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share for the quarter.

歐洲企業市場實現了個位數低成長，而亞洲、中東、非洲地區則出現了個位數低下降，中東地區的緊張局勢依然嚴峻，並繼續給市場和美國品牌帶來壓力。與上年同期相比，全球總價值份額略有下降，我們排名前 50 名的類別國家組合中有 27 個在本季度保持或增長了份額。

On the bottom line, earnings per share were $1.54, up 1% versus prior year on a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 3%. Core gross margin was down 30 basis points and core operating margin increased 90 basis points.

最終，每股收益為 1.54 美元，以固定匯率計算比上年增長 1%，核心每股收益增長 3%。核心毛利率下降了 30 個基點，核心營業利潤率上升了 90 個基點。

Currency-neutral core operating margin increased 100 basis points. We maintained strong margin investment levels supported by 280 basis points of productivity improvement, including adjustments to planned compensation awards given year-to-date trends versus our targets.

以固定匯率計算，核心營業利益率提高了100個基點。我們維持了強勁的利潤率投資水平，這得益於生產力提高了 280 個基點，其中包括根據年初至今的趨勢與我們的目標相比對計劃薪酬獎勵進行的調整。

Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 75%. We returned nearly $3.8 billion of cash to shareowners this quarter, $2.4 billion in dividends and $1.4 billion in share repurchases. Earlier this month, we announced a 5% increase in our dividend, again, reinforcing our commitment to return cash to shareowners.

調整後的自由現金流效率為 75%。本季我們向股東返還了近 38 億美元的現金，其中 24 億美元為股息，14 億美元為股票回購。本月初，我們宣布將股利提高 5%，再次重申了我們向股東返還現金的承諾。

This is the 69th consecutive annual dividend increases, and the 135th consecutive year P&G has paid a dividend. To summarize the third quarter, the team managed well with

這是寶潔公司連續第 69 年提高年度股息，也是寶潔公司連續第 135 年派發股息。總結第三季度，球隊表現良好。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。

I have reconnected the speaker line, and we'll ask the speakers to continue. Andre?

我已經重新連接了揚聲器線路，我們將要求揚聲器繼續播放。安德烈？

Apologies for the technical issue here. We are picking up at the strategy comments. We're not exactly sure where we got disconnected, but we can follow up in the Q&A section, if there are any elements on the results that we need to pick up on.

很抱歉出現技術問題。我們正在討論戰略方面的觀點。我們不太確定連接在哪裡斷開了，但如果結果中有任何我們需要注意的地方，我們可以在問答部分進行跟進。

On the strategy side, now is the time for investment in and flawless execution of our integrated growth strategy. Delivering superiority across every part of our portfolio is the path to growing categories, providing value to consumers and customers and creating value for shareowners. We must do this across all value tiers where we play all retail channels and all consumer segments we serve as we've done in the past.

在策略方面，現在是投資並完美執行我們一體化成長策略的時候了。在產品組合的各個方面都做到卓越，是實現品類成長、為消費者和客戶創造價值、為股東創造價值的途徑。我們必須像過去一樣，在所有價值層級、所有零售通路和所有消費群中都這樣做。

We will continue to actively manage our portfolio across markets and brands to strengthen our ability to generate US dollar-based returns in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. We will continue to accelerate productivity in all areas of our operations to fuel investments in so priority mitigate cost and currency headwinds and drive margin expansion, and we will continue our efforts to constructive disruption of ourselves and our industry changing, adapting and creating new ideas, technologies and capabilities that will extend our competitive advantage.

我們將繼續積極管理我們在各個市場和品牌的產品組合，以增強我們在日常用品類別中創造以美元計價的回報的能力，在這些類別中，業績決定品牌選擇。我們將繼續加快所有營運領域的生產力，以推動投資，從而優先緩解成本和匯率不利因素，並擴大利潤率。我們將繼續努力對自身和產業進行建設性顛覆，改變、適應和創造新的理念、技術和能力，以擴大我們的競爭優勢。

We are empowering our highly capable and agile organizations that are ready to step forward to create value for our consumers, customers and shareowners. These choices portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization reinforce and build on each other, and we remain confident in our strategy and its importance, especially in difficult times to drive market growth and deliver balanced growth and value creation.

我們正在賦能我們能力卓越、靈活敏捷的組織，使其能夠挺身而出，為我們的消費者、客戶和股東創造價值。這些選擇，包括產品組合、卓越性、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織，相互加強和發展，我們仍然對我們的策略及其重要性充滿信心，尤其是在困難時期，以推動市場成長並實現平衡成長和價值創造。

A long-term focus on the strength of our brands, business and categories is the best way to position ourselves for stronger growth when the economic climate and consumer confidence improves. This starts with strong innovation plans. We have many new innovations that launched in the fall or are hitting shelves now. We recently launched our best whitening toothpaste ever Crest 3D White deep stain remover. The new formula works in just one day to dissolve the bonds that lock stains in your teeth and better prevent stains from reoccurring.

長期專注於提升我們的品牌、業務和品類實力，是我們在經濟環境和消費者信心改善時實現更強勁增長的最佳途徑。一切都始於強而有力的創新計畫。我們有很多創新產品在秋季推出，或者現在已經上架銷售。我們最近推出了有史以來最好的美白牙膏－佳潔士3D炫白深層去漬牙膏。新配方只需一天即可溶解牙齒上導致污漬殘留的黏合劑，更能防止污漬再次出現。

Deep stain remover is off to a great start and is driving craft market share growth in the US toothpaste category. We launched our most advanced power toothbrush, iO 10, early last year, and we followed up with iO 2, the first iO design to help consumers trade up from a menu toothbrush to a power brush. The combination of premium and entry point innovation is working well, with Oral-B Power Brush up 50 basis points in the US. We also have strong innovation across all price tiers in Fabric Care.

深層去漬劑取得了良好的開局，並推動了美國牙膏品類中精品市場份額的成長。去年年初，我們推出了最先進的電動牙刷 iO 10，隨後又推出了 iO 2，這是 iO 系列的第一款產品，旨在幫助消費者從普通牙刷升級到電動牙刷。高階產品與入門級產品創新結合的策略效果顯著，Oral-B Power Brush 在美國的銷售量成長了 50 個基點。我們在織物護理領域各個價位的產品都擁有強大的創新能力。

Tide OXI Boost Power PODS are launching this quarter OXI Boost includes two times the OXI power to provide Tide's most powerful clean.

Tide OXI Boost Power PODS 將於本季上市，OXI Boost 蘊含兩倍的 OXI 能量，帶來 Tide 最強勁的清潔力。

In addition, we have innovation at the mid-tier of our detergent price range, Gain+Odor Defense detergent lift away tough orders at the source and includes 40% more freshness ingredients.

此外，我們在中檔價位的洗滌劑產品中推出了創新產品——Gain+除臭洗滌劑，它能從源頭上去除頑固異味，並含有40%以上的清新成分。

Finally, Tide evo, our new laundry detergent developed on our breakthrough functional Fibers platform continues to exceed expectations in our now expanded Colorado test market. Evo offers superior cleaning performance in fully recyclable packaging with no plastic bottles or water. In the doors where evo is present, it's proven to be highly incremental to category growth despite its premium pricing, great progress across all criteria we set for the test market, including manufacturing readiness.

最後，我們基於突破性功能纖維平台開發的新型洗衣液 Tide evo 在我們現在擴大的科羅拉多州測試市場中繼續超越預期。Evo 採用完全可回收的包裝，不含塑膠瓶和水，提供卓越的清潔性能。在 evo 已進入的市場中，儘管其定價較高，但已證明其對品類增長具有極大的促進作用，並且在我們為測試市場設定的所有標準方面都取得了巨大進步，包括生產準備情況。

We have many other innovations launching right now in grooming upgrades to blades and razor handles on Gillette Labs and venous and venous now includes shower hooks with all razor handles. Tampax now has a 20% longer lead at break for improved fleet protection and always new pocket flex form, full-size protection in a tiny pack, making it incredibly convenient for on-the-go use.

我們目前在吉列實驗室和靜脈剃須刀的刀片和剃須刀柄方面推出了許多其他創新產品，現在所有剃須刀柄都配有淋浴掛鉤。Tampax 衛生棉條在斷裂處加長了 20%，提高了對衛生棉條的保護性能，並採用了全新的口袋式柔性設計，小巧的包裝卻能提供全尺寸的保護，使其在旅途中使用非常方便。

Pampers as innovation coming in essentially every element of its portfolio over the next year. Home Care has innovation this spring on Febreze, Dawn, Cascade, Mr. Clean, and Swiffer.

未來一年，幫寶適將在旗下所有產品線中引入創新。今年春天，家居護理產品在 Febreze、Dawn、Cascade、Mr. Clean 和 Swiffer 等品牌上推出了創新產品。

We chose to maintain our innovation plans during the early stages of COVID. We did the same in the early stages of the severe inflationary cycle a few years ago. It's unclear how long this period of consumer softness will last, but we know P&G will be stronger if we keep innovation across every part of our portfolio and keep investing to drive consumer interest and demand in our categories.

在新冠疫情初期，我們選擇繼續推動我們的創新計劃。幾年前嚴重的通貨膨脹週期初期，我們也採取了同樣的做法。目前尚不清楚消費者疲軟的這段時期會持續多久，但我們知道，如果我們在產品組合的各個方面保持創新，並繼續投資以激發消費者對我們產品類別的興趣和需求，寶潔將會變得更加強大。

As market leaders, in many of our categories, we know our retail partners rely on P&G innovation to drive market growth in difficult times for consumers, this role is especially important and offers a unique opportunity for our brands to differentiate themselves in terms of both performance and value. We will continue to drive productivity and make smart choices in all areas of cost to ensure we're mitigating headwinds along the way.

身為許多品類的市場領導者，我們知道，在消費者面臨困境的時期，我們的零售合作夥伴依靠寶潔的創新來推動市場成長。這個角色尤其重要，並為我們的品牌提供了一個獨特的機會，使其在業績和價值方面脫穎而出。我們將繼續提高生產效率，並在所有成本領域做出明智的選擇，以確保我們能夠克服一路上的不利因素。

However, we won't cut to save the bottom line for a quarter only to lose momentum for the year. We will maintain a long-term view, which leads us to our revised outlook for fiscal '25. As we've highlighted, we continue to expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging from input costs to currencies to consumer, competitor, retailer and geopolitical dynamics and now tariff impacts I'll talk through each of these, and I'll get to tariffs in the end. So please bear with me.

但是，我們不會為了保住一個季度的利潤而削減開支，從而失去全年的發展勢頭。我們將保持長遠的眼光，也促成了我們對 2025 財年展望的修訂。正如我們所強調的，我們預期周圍的環境將繼續動盪且充滿挑戰，從投入成本到貨幣，再到消費者、競爭對手、零售商和地緣政治動態，以及現在的關稅影響，我將逐一討論這些方面，最後再談到關稅。所以請大家多多包涵。

On the top line, we now expect organic sales growth of approximately 2% for the fiscal year. With one quarter remaining, this deducts to fourth quarter organic growth of 0.5% to 4.5%. A key determinant in where we land within that range is underlying market growth. Regardless of where the markets remain weak or accelerate back to prior growth levels, we expect to grow our brands modestly ahead of underlying markets.

從營收方面來看，我們預計本財年有機銷售額將成長約 2%。還有一個季度尚未結束，這將使第四季度的有機成長率從 0.5% 降至 4.5%。決定我們最終落入該範圍哪個位置的關鍵因素是潛在的市場成長。無論市場是繼續疲軟還是加速恢復到先前的成長水平，我們都期望我們的品牌能夠略微領先於市場整體水平實現成長。

On the bottom line, our outlook is now for core EPS of $6.72 to $6.82 per share for the fiscal year. This equates to core EPS growth in the range of 2% to 4% for fiscal year '25 versus prior year core EPS of [$6.59]. This guidance deducts to a range of $1.37 to $1.47 for the fourth quarter.

綜上所述，我們對本財年核心每股收益的預期為 6.72 美元至 6.82 美元。這意味著2025財年核心每股盈餘將比上一年成長2%至4%。[6.59 美元]根據這一預期，第四季度每股收益預計在 1.37 美元至 1.47 美元之間。

Our outlook for commodity costs remains unchanged. Forecasting a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal '25. Since last earnings, foreign exchange rates have eased modestly. We are now estimating a headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal '25.

我們對大宗商品成本的預期保持不變。預計稅後大宗商品成本上漲將帶來約 2 億美元的不利影響，相當於 2025 財年每股成本上漲 0.08 美元。自上次財報發布以來，外匯匯率已小幅回落。我們現在估計稅後不利因素約為 2 億美元，相當於 2025 財年每股不利因素 0.08 美元。

We continue to expect lower non-operating income benefits for the fiscal year. As a reminder, the fourth quarter base period includes the gain from the divestiture of our Vidal Sassoon brand in China. We're now forecasting only modest headwinds from net interest income and expense and an effective tax rate roughly in line with prior year. Combined, these below-the-line items are around $0.04 headwind to core EPS. We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year.

我們預計本財年非經營性收入收益將有所下降。提醒一下，第四季基期包括了我們在中國剝離 Vidal Sassoon 品牌所獲得的收益。我們現在預測，淨利息收入和支出只會帶來輕微的不利影響，實際稅率與前一年大致持平。這些線下項目加起來會對核心每股收益造成約 0.04 美元的負面影響。我們繼續預測全年調整後自由現金流生產力將達到 90%。

and we have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $7 billion in common stock, combined returning $16 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year. This outlook assumes a range of $100 million to $160 million in BT tariff impacts in the fourth quarter or $0.03 or $0.05 per share. This assumes current tariff rates hold for the full quarter. When products and materials inbound to the US and other tariff impacted markets will be affected.

我們計劃支付約 100 億美元的股息，並回購 60 億至 70 億美元的普通股，本財年合計向股東返還 160 億至 170 億美元的現金。這項預測假設 BT 第四季的資費影響在 1 億至 1.6 億美元之間，即每股 0.03 美元或 0.05 美元。前提是當前關稅稅率在整個季度內保持不變。進口到美國和其他受關稅影響市場的產品和材料將受到影響。

And when those goods will be recognized in our P&L, a finished products are sold to retailers. Currently, the largest US tariff impacts are coming from raw and packaging materials and some finished product source from China. While China accounts for just over 10% of total imports exposure to the US, the size of the tariff rate makes the cost impact more substantial.

當這些貨物在我們的損益表中得到確認時，成品就會銷售給零售商。目前，美國關稅影響最大的產品來自中國的原料、包裝材料、部分成品。雖然中國僅占美國進口總額的 10% 多一點，但關稅稅率的規模使得成本影響更為顯著。

The largest impact of responsive tariffs on US exports is from the finished products shipped from the US to Canada. We'll be looking for every opportunity to mitigate the impact, including sourcing flexibility and productivity improvements, we also need to consider some level of consumer pricing in effective categories and markets.

響應式關稅對美國出口的最大影響來自美國運往加拿大的成品。我們將尋找一切機會來減輕影響，包括提高採購彈性和生產力，我們還需要考慮在有效的品類和市場中採取一定程度的消費者定價策略。

The guidance we shared today is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases geopolitical disruption, major supply chain disruptions, store closures or tariff changes are not anticipated within the guidance range.

我們今天分享的指導意見是基於當前的市場成長率預測、商品價格和外匯匯率。預計在指導範圍內不會出現貨幣大幅貶值、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治動盪、重大供應鏈中斷、商店關閉或關稅變化等情況。

To wrap up, we are pleased with the results. P&G people have delivered in a very challenging and volatile environment, and we remain focused on excellent execution of our integrated dynamic and market-constructive strategy. innovating and investing to drive market growth and balance to bottom line growth and value creation.

總而言之，我們對結果很滿意。寶潔員工在充滿挑戰和動盪的環境中取得了優異成績，我們將繼續專注於出色執行我們整合的、動態的、市場導向型的策略，透過創新和投資來推動市場成長，並實現利潤成長和價值創造的平衡。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

那麼，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

（操作說明）勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

So Andre, during the quarter, you guys had definitely discussed the retail inventory destocking in the US and then that kind of more to more of a real slowdown in consumer takeaway. And you'd also flagged similarly changing behavior in Europe. US consumer confidence metrics are very weak.

所以安德烈，在這個季度裡，你們肯定討論過美國零售庫存去庫存的問題，以及消費者購買量真正放緩的情況。你也曾指出歐洲也出現了類似的行為變化。美國消費者信心指數非常疲軟。

Europe, to a lesser degree, but still below consensus forecast. So just with that context, I would love to get your read on consumer behavior in these regions. And kind of what are you planning to do differently? I know you talked about all the innovation, but to support revenue growth and market share is things that feel like we're probably going to get worse from here from a market growth standpoint.

歐洲的情況稍好一些，但仍低於市場普遍預期。基於以上背景，我很想了解您對這些地區消費者行為的看法。那麼，你打算做出哪些不同的改變呢？我知道你們談到了所有的創新，但是從市場成長的角度來看，支持收入成長和市場份額似乎會越來越糟。

To start with the consumer. If you go back, as you rightly say, when we were at CAGNY, which was kind of around and middle of February, the consumption data that we saw through mid-January, which was the data that we had available at that point in time, still looked stable. We highlighted the inventory drawdown that we saw, but consumption levels were stable since then.

首先要從消費者著手。正如您所說，回顧一下我們在 CAGNY 的時候（大約是二月中旬），我們看到的截至一月中旬的消費數據（也就是當時我們掌握的數據）看起來仍然很穩定。我們重點指出了庫存下降的情況，但此後消費水準一直保持穩定。

The consumer has been hit with a lot of volatility, market volatility that impacts their portfolios, their 401(k)s, volatility, economic outlook, uncertainty on the job market. Volatility in terms of mortgage rates expectations, all the divisiveness and nationalistic rhetoric that we saw around the world uncertainty on tariffs and the impact on prices and availability of goods.

消費者受到了很大的波動影響，市場波動影響了他們的投資組合、401(k)退休計畫、經濟前景的波動以及就業市場的不確定性。抵押貸款利率預期波動，世界各地出現的分裂和民族主義言論，關稅的不確定性以及對商品價格和供應的影響。

So the consumer has been hit with a lot, and that's a lot of process. So what we're seeing, I think, is a logical response from the consumer to pause. And that pause is reflected in retail traffic being down. It's also reflected in somewhat of channel shifting in the search for the best value shifting into online, shifting into big box retailers and shifting into the club channel in the US specifically.

所以消費者承受了很多壓力，流程也很繁瑣。所以，我認為，我們看到的是消費者暫停購買的合乎邏輯的反應。這種停滯也反映在零售客流量的下降。這也反映在通路轉移上，人們為了追求最佳性價比，開始轉向線上通路、大型零售商通路，尤其是在美國，轉向會員制通路。

All of that put together, means consumption levels are down in both Europe and the US. The US has been growing over the past 12 months around 3% in terms of value consumption. What we've read through February and March was closer to 1%. Similarly, European consumer has been at about 3% over the past 12 months.

綜合所有這些因素，意味著歐洲和美國的消費水準都在下降。過去 12 個月，美國消費價值成長率約為 3%。二月和三月我們讀到的數據接近 1%。同樣，在過去 12 個月裡，歐洲消費者的成長率約為 3%。

And again, that consumption level now is down to about 1%. Glass half full, P&G is growing or holding share. Europe volume share continues to be up in the most recent reading about 30 basis points. US shares are holding private label shares in both regions continue to trend down and actually accelerating downwards in Europe.

而現在，這種消費水準已經下降到大約 1%。樂觀來看，寶潔的市佔率正在成長或保持穩定。根據最新數據，歐洲銷售份額持續上升約 30 個基點。美國股票持有的自有品牌股票在兩個地區都持續走低，而且在歐洲的跌勢實際上還在加速。

So the message we draw from this is that superiority of our brands delivering performance to consumers in uncertain times is still value to consumers. They are choosing our brands. And so we take encouragement to double down on our strategy because we see that as the only viable path through this level of volatility that we're experiencing. We're doubling down on innovation. We're doubling down on superiority.

因此，我們從中得出的結論是，即使在不確定的時期，我們的品牌能夠為消費者提供卓越的性能，這仍然對消費者有價值。他們正在選擇我們的品牌。因此，我們受到鼓舞，並且更加堅定地執行我們的策略，因為我們認為這是我們目前所經歷的這種程度波動中唯一可行的途徑。我們將加倍投入創新。我們正在加倍鞏固我們的優勢。

We are heavily focused on driving productivity and heavily focused on ensuring our organization can be as agile and externally focused as possible to be close to consumers and close to markets. so that we can grow the business for all those jobs to be done that consumers don't want to fail in.

我們高度重視提高生產力，並致力於確保我們的組織盡可能靈活敏捷、以客戶為中心，貼近消費者和市場，從而發展業務，滿足消費者不希望出現任何問題的需求。

What we focus on as well is a longer-term outlook. You've heard us talk about our determination to remain invested in the business, which we think is absolutely critical. So even if we saw volatility in the short-term consumption, we are determined to remain invested both from a brand building innovation and go-to-market perspective.

我們也關注更長遠的展望。你們已經聽我們說過，我們決心繼續投資這項業務，我們認為這至關重要。因此，即使我們看到短期消費出現波動，我們也決心繼續投資，無論是從品牌建立創新還是市場推廣的角度來看。

And we continue to focus in a volatile environment on the two to three-year balance between top line and bottom-line growth. And that's what you'll see us talk about and execute.

在動盪的市場環境下，我們將繼續專注於未來兩到三年內營收成長與利潤成長之間的平衡。這就是我們將要討論和執行的內容。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Andre, I guess I had a question just around how we're -- how we should begin thinking about approaching modeling, forecasting for '26. And so maybe can you give us a little bit of perspective on one, just category growth rates now and as we're kind of thinking about exit rates in the '26.

安德烈，我想問一個關於我們——我們應該如何開始思考如何對 2026 年進行建模和預測的問題。那麼，您能否就以下兩點給我們一些看法，例如目前的品類成長率，以及我們正在考慮的 2026 年的退出率。

And then as we're looking at this year as a base, so fiscal '25 as a base, how much more incremental -- how many more incremental levers are there to pull as we look at next year in terms of either offsetting the incremental cost of tariffs or if demand begins to be subdued? So just trying to understand from you, just what are some of the factors you're looking at and that we should consider as we begin to kind of look at our model out past the end of fiscal '25?

然後，如果我們以今年為基準，也就是以 2025 財年為基準，那麼展望明年，在抵銷關稅增加成本或應對需求疲軟的情況下，還有多少增量措施可以實施？所以我想了解一下，在展望2025財年之後的發展模式時，您正在關注哪些因素，而我們也應該考慮這些因素？

Yes. Stepping back at the global level, obviously, the reduction in consumption levels that we saw in the US and in Europe have an impact at global growth rates. Over the past 12 months, we have seen global growth in the range of 3.5% value growth, that is now down to roughly 2.5%. We expect markets to return to the 3% to 4% growth rate, but it's very hard to predict, as you can appreciate with the current volatility we see in all of those factors I mentioned in response to Lauren's question, when that's going to happen.

是的。從全球層面來看，顯然，我們在美國和歐洲看到的消費水準下降對全球經濟成長率產生了影響。過去 12 個月，全球經濟成長率約為 3.5%，而現在已降至約 2.5%。我們預計市場將恢復到 3% 至 4% 的成長率，但正如您在回答 Lauren 的問題時提到的所有因素所反映出的當前波動性一樣，很難預測這種情況何時會發生。

So we're really taking a longer look at our plan over the next two to three years, ensuring that as markets return over that period to 3% to 4% growth, do we have sufficient investment ability to maintain superiority and expand the priority across all of those category country combinations we deem strategic.

因此，我們正在認真審視未來兩到三年的計劃，確保隨著市場在此期間恢復到 3% 到 4% 的增長，我們是否有足夠的投資能力來保持優勢，並在我們認為具有戰略意義的所有類別國家組合中擴大優先地位。

So category growth, question mark in the short term, midterm, we expect it to return to 3% to 4% growth rate. The levers for us are the same levers that we talk about in our integrated strategy. I think the tariff impacts that are visible to us right now the growth level in the range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion. So it's not immaterial.

因此，該品類的成長短期內存在疑問，中期我們預期其成長率將恢復到 3% 至 4%。對我們來說，這些槓桿與我們在綜合策略中談到的槓桿是相同的。我認為目前我們看到的關稅影響將導致經濟成長水準在 10 億至 15 億美元之間。所以這並非無關緊要。

For us to offset those in the short term, we have to consider productivity which we will double down on and we have a very strong productivity plan over the next three years that I feel very bullish about. We have to continue to invest in innovation and superiority and enable actually more investment in those areas in the short term and the midterm.

為了在短期內抵消這些影響，我們必須考慮提高生產力，我們將加倍努力，並且我們制定了未來三年非常強大的生產力計劃，我對此非常樂觀。我們必須繼續投資於創新和卓越，並在短期和中期內增加對這些領域的投資。

And that innovation that we are pushing out will have to carry some level of pricing. If you think about the short and midterm with the uncertainty around tariffs and honestly, the difficulty to adjust sourcing, formulation or even asset location. I think it's clear that productivity, innovation and pricing are probably the short-term levers that we will employ.

我們推出的這些創新必然要付出一定的代價。如果考慮到關稅的不確定性，以及調整採購、配方甚至資產位置的困難，那麼短期和中期情況就會有所不同。我認為很明顯，生產力、創新和定價可能是我們將採取的短期手段。

But looking at all the other levers, including formulation and sourcing changes obviously as well. The fact that we are close to our consumer for the majority of our production, I think, is a benefit for us. But the number in and of itself, obviously, is still not immaterial, so we'll have to continue to figure out how to do that.

但也要考慮其他所有因素，包括配方和採購方面的改變。我認為，我們大部分生產環節都離消費者很近，這對我們來說是一個優勢。但顯然，這個數字本身仍然非常重要，所以我們還得繼續想辦法解決這個問題。

So the one piece I would want you to take away is assume category growth rates return to normal levels. And we will focus really on a glide path over two to three years to deliver mid -- low to mid-singles in terms of top line and mid to high singles in terms of EPS growth.

所以，我希望你們記得的一點是，假設品類成長率恢復到正常水準。我們將真正專注於兩到三年的平穩發展，以期在營收方面實現中低個位數成長，在每股盈餘成長方面實現中高個位數成長。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，德意志銀行。

So Andre, you talked about the innovation pipeline strength and the importance of maintaining the momentum on that front. I haven't parsed through all of the math implied in the updated guidance, but could you just talk about whether kind of net of everything, the level of investment that you're putting behind that innovation and behind demand building going forward has changed at all in this updated outlook.

安德烈，你談到了創新管道的實力以及保持這方面勢頭的重要性。我還沒有仔細研究更新後的指導意見中隱含的所有數學公式，但您能否談談，總的來說，您在創新和未來需求建設方面的投資水平，在這次更新後的展望中是否有所改變？

And then whether or not the magnitude has given what you're seeing in the consumer, has the nature of that investment changed at all in terms of advertising versus trade or the like? Just how you're thinking about the support that you're going to put behind that innovation as you go forward?

那麼，無論這種規模是否帶來了你在消費者身上看到的變化，這種投資的性質是否發生了任何變化，例如廣告與貿易等方面的變化？您打算如何支持這項創新，並推動其向前發展？

Investment levels are always adjusted both across regions, markets, categories, brands and periods because the plans are obviously year-over-year different. If you look at fiscal year-to-date investment levels, specifically on media and advertising, we are flat in terms of percentage of sales.

由於計劃每年都不同，因此投資水平總是會根據地區、市場、類別、品牌和時期進行調整。如果看一下本財年迄今的投資水平，特別是媒體和廣告方面的投資，我們佔銷售額的百分比持平。

And as we said, we have a very strong innovation pipeline in the balance of the year, which we intend to focus all investments on. What exactly the dollar spending is, we'll adjust as we see the plans unfold. But the one thing that is very clear to us is we continue to be committed to fully support the innovation across the fourth quarter. That innovation is best supported with strong communication.

正如我們所說，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們擁有非常強大的創新產品線，我們將把所有投資都集中在這些產品上。具體美元支出額度，我們將根據計劃的進度進行調整。但我們非常清楚的一點是，我們將繼續全力支持第四季的創新工作。強而有力的溝通是支持創新的最佳途徑。

So media advertising to our consumers is the primary vehicle of investment. I don't view us shifting the mix between advertising and trade promotion. Trade promotion always plays a role as we launch new innovation in driving trial, but it's mainly focused on visibility, and we have a pretty good track record of creating visibility on new innovation without deep discounting. The market so far is responding the same way.

因此，面向消費者的媒體廣告是我們主要的投資管道。我不認為我們會改變廣告和貿易促銷之間的比例。貿易促銷在我們推出新產品、推動試用時總是發揮著作用，但主要側重於提高知名度，而且我們在不大幅折扣的情況下提高新產品知名度方面有著相當不錯的記錄。目前市場反應也與此相同。

You see relative stability in terms of promotion depth and frequency, both in Europe and in the US. And we certainly have no interest in changing that other than driving trial and awareness of the new innovation that we're pushing.

在歐洲和美國，促銷的深度和頻率都相對穩定。我們當然沒有改變現狀的打算，只是想推動試驗，提高人們對我們正在推廣的新創新的認識。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian，摩根士丹利。

So Ander, you highlighted doubling down on superiority and innovation in this environment. It's obviously served P&G well in recent years. with the consumer pressure points we're seeing, if we do start to see more consumer trade down, can you discuss how you see P&G is positioned today versus past cycles?

所以安德，你強調了在這種環境下要加倍努力保持優勢和創新。顯然，近年來這對寶潔公司大有裨益。鑑於我們目前看到的消費者壓力點，如果消費者開始轉向購買更低價位的產品，您能否談談您認為寶潔公司目前的市場定位與以往週期相比有何不同？

And then also, have you seen any specific geographies or product categories where private label shares picked up so far? And you touched on this earlier, but what's P&G's market share performance been in some of those areas if, in fact, you're starting to see that dynamic play out a little more?

此外，您是否注意到自有品牌市場佔有率在哪些特定地區或產品類別中有所成長？您之前也提到過這一點，但如果這種動態確實開始逐漸顯現，那麼寶潔在這些領域的市佔率表現如何呢？

I think we are -- we continue to view ourselves as well positioned to serve the consumer even as their value equation might shift. We have a way better portfolio in terms of vertical value offerings from a brand perspective. And we have a very broad portfolio in terms of price points and pack sizes across all channels around the world. And that's true from China to Europe to North America. You also see in our innovation that we are focusing innovation on all value tiers in all categories.

我認為我們是－即使消費者的價值觀念可能會發生變化，我們仍然認為自己有能力為消費者提供服務。從品牌角度來看，我們在垂直價值產品方面擁有更好的產品組合。我們在全球所有通路都擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，涵蓋各種價格點和包裝規格。從中國到歐洲再到北美，情況都是如此。您也可以從我們的創新中看到，我們致力於在所有類別的所有價值層級進行創新。

As we're innovating on Tide, we're also innovating on Gain as we're innovating on Swaddlers, we're innovating on Luvs and Baby-Dry. And that's actually a good part of the innovation that is launching over the next few months is focused on driving innovation across all value tiers so that we can serve consumers and have relevant offerings that are superior versus the relevant competitive set at each price point and price tier.

正如我們在 Tide 上進行創新一樣，我們也在 Gain 上進行創新；正如我們在 Swaddlers 上進行創新一樣，我們也在 Luvs 和 Baby-Dry 上進行創新。事實上，未來幾個月即將推出的創新措施很大程度上側重於推動所有價值層級的創新，以便我們能夠服務消費者，並在每個價格點和價格層級提供優於相關競爭對手的優質產品。

So well positioned there, but I would say the teams are paying extra attention to ensuring that we have the innovation calibrated with the consumer environment in mind and the support models calibrated in the same way. That, I think, has enabled us through all of these periods of volatility. If you go back pre COVID inflationary cycle with 8%, 10% of pricing we've grown share or held share across all of those periods.

因此，我們在這方面佔據了有利地位，但我認為團隊正在格外注意確保我們的創新與消費者環境相協調，而支援模式也以同樣的方式進行調整。我認為，正是這一點讓我們度過了所有這些動盪時期。如果回顧新冠疫情前的通膨週期，當時的通膨率為 8% 或 10%，那麼在所有這些時期，我們的市場份額要么增長，要么保持穩定。

And even in this current period, with obviously some variability if you look at a month we continue to hold or grow share. Private label shares continued to trend down, which is not the answer, but it is a good indication that in a more value-conscious environment that portfolio is holding up well. We are able to serve consumers across all channels. You see the -- I mentioned the shift in the US specifically towards online, big box and club.

即使在當前時期，雖然每月的數據顯然會有一些波動，但我們仍然保持或成長了市場佔有率。自有品牌股票持續下跌，雖然不是解決問題的方法，但卻很好地表明，在更注重價值的環境下，該投資組合表現良好。我們能夠為所有通路的消費者提供服務。你看——我特別提到了美國向線上、大型超市和俱樂部購物的轉變。

Again, in those channels, we're able to serve the consumer, hold share and grow categories. And if the consumer grow towards dollar channel or discounters, we're able to have the relevant offerings there. So Long answer, not an easy task. The team is very focused on ensuring we have the appropriate value proposition across all of those vectors. And so far, we've proven that we can do that.

同樣，透過這些管道，我們能夠服務消費者，保持市場份額，並發展品類。如果消費者轉向一美元店或折扣店，我們就能在那裡提供相關的商品和服務。所以答案很長，這不是一件容易的事。團隊非常注重確保我們在所有這些方面都擁有合適的價值主張。到目前為止，我們已經證明我們能夠做到這一點。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

Filippo Falorni，花旗銀行。

I wanted to ask a broader question around brand sentiment towards American brands around the world. Are you seeing any signs other than the Middle East, where I know it's been a pressure point for you guys for quite a few quarters of some anti-American brand sentiment around the world.

我想問一個更廣泛的問題，就是世界各地對美國品牌的看法。除了中東地區之外，你們是否還看到了其他跡象？我知道在過去的幾個季度裡，中東一直是你們關注的焦點，因為世界各地都出現了反美情緒。

And specifically on China, we're seeing some improvement there. Obviously, SK-II back to growth, as you mentioned. Do you see some risk on the other side of the China business, particularly the OA and the air care business potentially going forward? And maybe just some expectation on the growth forward in China.

具體到中國，我們看到那裡的情況有所改善。正如你所說，SK-II 顯然已經恢復成長。您認為中國業務的另一面，特別是OA和空氣護理業務未來可能有哪些風險？或許也對中國未來的成長抱持一些預期。

We have not observed in data that there is an impact in terms of nationalistic consumer behavior. We obviously are paying very close attention to social media or trade activation. And while we see some noise in markets like in Canada, none of that has yet resulted in any change of consumption behavior that we can attribute to any of those dynamics. In many of the markets that I would argue, actually, in most of our markets, our brands have been present for 10, 20 or 30 years.

我們從數據中沒有觀察到民族主義消費行為方面受到的影響。我們顯然非常關注社群媒體或貿易推廣活動。雖然我們看到加拿大等市場出現了一些波動，但這些波動尚未導致任何消費行為發生變化，我們可以將這些變化歸因於這些動態因素。在許多市場，我認為，實際上在我們的大多數市場中，我們的品牌已經存在了 10 年、20 年或 30 年。

And if you ask consumers, they view them as local brands that they grew up with not as a US brand that is foreign to them. I think that's the case in Europe. That's the case in China. And even in Canada, where probably the noise level is the highest consumption has held steady at 4% on a base of 6% in the previous year quarter. So nothing to report on that front yet.

如果你問消費者，他們會把這些品牌視為自己從小就熟悉的本土品牌，而不是對他們來說陌生的美國品牌。我認為歐洲的情況就是如此。中國的情況就是如此。即使在噪音水平可能最高的加拿大，消費量也穩定在 4%，而去年同期為 6%。所以這方面目前還沒有什麼好報告的。

And China actually we're very encouraged because we're seeing in a still tough consumer environment, SK-II accelerating to 11% growth in the quarter behind strong innovation on the super premium tier of LXP. But even the court here is responding very well to our communication strategy focused on brand superiority at PITERA.

事實上，我們對中國市場感到非常鼓舞，因為我們看到，在依然嚴峻的消費環境下，SK-II憑藉LXP超高端系列的強勁創新，本季實現了11%的成長。但就連這裡的法院也對我們以 PITERA 品牌優勢為中心的溝通策略給予了非常好的回應。

Our new department store counters are working extremely well. Olay has picked up and returned to growth in the current quarter. So we now see 2% growth on our Olay portfolio behind innovation on anti-aging, following the trend that the market has made from the shift the market has made from toning benefit to entire aging benefit.

我們新設的百貨公司櫃檯運作得非常好。Olay在本季已恢復成長。因此，我們現在看到，在抗衰老創新的推動下，我們的 Olay 產品組合實現了 2% 的成長，這順應了市場從單純的緊緻功效轉向全面抗衰老功效的趨勢。

Our Baby Care business continues to do well. If you look at Europe focused markets, the one structural element we need to keep in mind is France is heavily impacting the Europe focused market results. The EGalim promotion law was impacted on March 1, '24 and led to heavy loading, both from a retail and from a consumer standpoint in that period. If you take that loading effect out, Europe focused markets would have grown 5% in the quarter.

我們的嬰兒護理業務持續發展良好。如果觀察以歐洲為中心的市場，我們需要記住的一個結構性因素是，法國對以歐洲為中心的市場表現產生了重大影響。2024 年 3 月 1 日，EGalim 促銷法生效，導致該時期零售商和消費者都面臨沉重的負擔。如果剔除這種加載效應，以歐洲為中心的市場在本季將成長 5%。

So a long way of answering the question, that's not coming through in any of data that we're seeing either qualitatively or quantitatively, we'll continue to keep an eye on it, but our best response to all of this is to have the best brands available with the best value creation with the best superiority for our consumers and our retail partners.

所以，要回答這個問題，需要很長時間，但我們目前看到的任何數據，無論是定性的還是定量的，都沒有顯示出這一點。我們會繼續關注，但我們應對這一切的最佳方案是，為我們的消費者和零售合作夥伴提供最好的品牌、最好的價值創造和最佳的卓越性。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國證券。

I just wanted to follow up on one area and then ask a broader question. But regarding Andre, your response, I believe, to Bryan's question and you're not giving fiscal '26 guidance today before we get that.

我只是想就某個方面進行後續探討，然後再提出一個更廣泛的問題。但關於安德烈，我相信你對布萊恩問題的回答是，在我們得到答案之前，你今天不會給出 2026 財年的業績指引。

But the glide path back to category growth rates, I think you had said something like over the next two to three years, does that imply that you'd be a bit below historical category growth rates for the foreseen future, including into fiscal '26? Or was there an expectation that category growth would perhaps return to those levels into fiscal ['26] with a bit more pricing? I fully realize that there's no crystal ball, but it was kind of this question to terrify the very near term versus the medium term.

但是，您之前說過，未來兩到三年內，該品類的增長率將逐步恢復到歷史水平，這是否意味著在可預見的未來，包括到 2026 財年，該品類的增長率將略低於歷史水平？或者，是否有人預期，隨著價格上漲，該品類的成長可能會在 2026 財年恢復到先前的水準？我完全明白沒有水晶球可以預測未來，但這個問題其實是關於近期和中期前景哪個更令人擔憂的。

And if I could, your Investor Day was very much focused on opportunities in North America and in Europe. And coincidentally, those are the areas where category growth has slowed. And so are you thinking about adjusting your playbook at all in light of category development? Or is it still very much aligned with the strategy from a geographic standpoint that you laid out at Investor Day?

如果可以的話，我想說你們的投資者日活動主要集中在北美和歐洲的投資機會。巧合的是，這些領域恰恰是品類成長放緩的領域。那麼，鑑於品類發展，您是否考慮對您的策略進行調整？或者，從地域角度來看，它是否仍然與您在投資者日上提出的策略非常一致？

Our playbook aims to deliver balanced top and bottom line growth over a two to three-year period. We won't hit that algorithm every quarter. We won't hit it every year. We look back over a two to three-year period, we want to deliver that algorithm. That is true for how we approach the next two to three years.

我們的策略目標是在兩到三年內實現營收和利潤的均衡成長。我們不可能每季都採用那種演算法。我們不可能每年都達到這個目標。我們回顧過去兩到三年的時間，希望能夠提供相應的演算法。這對於我們未來兩到三年的規劃來說，確實如此。

As you said, there is no crystal ball. We don't know what the category growth rate is going to be, given all of the volatility that the consumer is facing and we won't guide today. I think the only logical conclusion is a wide expectation in terms of possible outcomes. That's how we have to plan. That's what our teams are getting ready to deal with and I think that's the only insight I can give you uncertainty, which we face means a wider range of planning and possible outcomes.

正如你所說，沒有水晶球可以預知未來。鑑於消費者面臨的各種波動，我們無法預測該類別的成長率，今天也不會給予預測。我認為唯一合乎邏輯的結論是對可能的結果抱持廣泛的預期。我們必須這樣計劃。這就是我們的團隊正在準備應對的情況，我認為這是我唯一能向你們透露的資訊：不確定性意味著我們需要製定更廣泛的計劃，並應對可能出現的各種結果。

In terms of the opportunity that we have highlighted during Investor Day, what we're currently seeing only means that capturing those opportunities is even more important today than it might have been six months ago.

就我們在投資者日上強調的機會而言，我們目前所看到的只是，抓住這些機會在今天比六個月前更加重要。

So the $5 billion growth opportunity we've highlighted in the US by driving household penetration of our biggest brands tied cascade bounty, for example, all -- only in 40% or less of US households is a huge opportunity by further segmenting the consumer base and being more targeted in serving them, communicating with them and driving trial and repeat across those brands. Further doubling down on new innovation, new jobs to be done that consumers have not yet widely adopted.

因此，我們強調了在美國透過推動我們最大品牌的家庭滲透率來創造 50 億美元的成長機會，例如，所有這些——只有 40% 或更少的美國家庭擁有這些品牌，這是一個巨大的機會，透過進一步細分消費者群體，更有針對性地為他們服務、與他們溝通，並推動這些品牌的和重複購買。進一步加大對創新的投入，開發消費者尚未廣泛接受的新工作。

We keep talking about fabric enhancers. That's still 30% household penetration or below and even only 40% to 50% of load penetration, driving power oral care as an opportunity to increase our health for consumers across the US with the launch iO 2 converting manual toothbrush users to electric toothbrush users. All of those opportunities are still there. We still see $5 billion of growth that we can capture.

我們一直在討論織物柔軟精。這仍然意味著家庭滲透率低於 30%，甚至負載滲透率也只有 40% 到 50%，推動電動口腔護理成為提高美國消費者健康的契機，iO 2 的推出將手動牙刷用戶轉變為電動牙刷用戶。所有這些機會依然存在。我們仍然可以看到50億美元的成長空間。

And that's why we want to double down on our investment because that's really focused on capturing those growth opportunities. And the same is true for Europe. So nothing's changed. And that's why you see our almost stubborn commitment to not letting go of innovation, not letting go of investment and not letting go of our collaboration with retailers to serve the consumer even better in the future.

正因如此，我們才要加倍投資，因為這真正是為了把握這些成長機會。歐洲的情況也是如此。所以一切都沒有改變。正因如此，你會看到我們近乎固執地堅持創新，堅持投資，堅持與零售商合作，以便在未來更好地服務消費者。

Peter Grom, UBS.

Peter Grom，瑞銀集團。

So I was hoping to get some more perspective on international market growth. You touched on the Europe focus markets being up 1%. You outlined the impact France is having Latin America up 6% despite challenges in Mexico. So just want to be curious if you could unpack category growth in those regions versus maybe market share performance?

所以，我希望能對國際市場成長有更深入的了解。您提到了歐洲重點市場上漲了 1%。您概述了法國對拉丁美洲的影響，儘管墨西哥面臨挑戰，但法國的經濟成長仍達到 6%。所以，我很好奇您能否分析一下這些地區的品類成長與市佔率表現之間的關係？

And then you outlined some of the shifts in consumption that are happening in Europe, in your response to Lauren's question. I'd be curious what you're seeing in terms of consumption across Latin America more broadly.

然後，當你回答勞倫的問題時，概述了歐洲正在發生的一些消費轉變。我很想知道你觀察到的整個拉丁美洲地區的消費情況如何。

We're very pleased with the Latin America results. Maybe to start there, Peter, 6% organic sales growth is a great result with a very strong base. I think it was 17% in the base period. Brazil, growing 8%; Mexico growing 6%, and that's with Mexico's consumers probably as volatile as the US consumer.

我們對拉丁美洲的業績非常滿意。或許可以從這裡開始說起，彼得，6% 的有機銷售成長是一個非常好的結果，而且基礎非常穩固。我認為基期是17%。巴西成長 8%；墨西哥成長 6%，而墨西哥消費者的消費波動性可能與美國消費者一樣大。

So we feel good about category growth in the region. We have Argentina now with an import market, which I think stabilizes the region from an overall growth perspective. And I see, again, strong innovation and focus of both our Brazil teams and our Mexico teams as the biggest markets in the region to drive innovation, drive category growth and help accelerate that growth rate even further. From a China perspective, the message hasn't changed. The market is still flat to down across our categories.

因此，我們對該地區的品類成長感到樂觀。阿根廷現在擁有進口市場，我認為這從整體成長的角度來看穩定了該地區。我再次看到，我們的巴西團隊和墨西哥團隊都展現出了強大的創新能力和專注精神，因為這兩個市場是該地區最大的市場，他們將推動創新，推動品類成長，並幫助進一步加快成長速度。從中國的角度來看，這個訊息並沒有改變。我們所關注的各個品類市場依然持平或下跌。

We are making progress within that minus 15 quarter 1; minus 5 quarter 2; minus 2 quarter 3. But I do believe that, again, recovery in China will take time and won't be a straight line. The message there hasn't changed, and we focus on steady progress on our growth rate and bringing more and more of our categories and brands into positive territory, but China will continue to be volatile in our mind.

我們正朝著目標邁進，第一季下降了 15 分；第二季下降了 5 分；第三季下降了 2 分。但我仍然認為，中國的復甦需要時間，而且不會是一條直線。我們的訊息沒有改變，我們專注於穩定提高成長率，並讓越來越多的品類和品牌獲利，但在我們看來，中國市場仍將充滿波動。

The rest of the world, again, I won't have much more intelligence other than to say we saw growth rates slow from 3.5 to 2.5. Structurally, we believe that the world will return in our categories to 3% to 4% growth.

至於世界其他地區，我也不掌握太多信息，只能說我們看到成長率從 3.5% 放緩至 2.5%。從結構上看，我們認為世界各領域的成長率將恢復到 3% 至 4%。

And as I mentioned in response to Chris's question, we don't have a crystal ball, so the only way to deal with the uncertainty that comes with the current consumer growth rates is to focus the organization on the strategy and plan for a range of outcomes.

正如我在回答克里斯的問題時提到的那樣，我們沒有水晶球，所以應對當前消費者成長率帶來的不確定性的唯一方法是讓組織專注於策略和計劃，以應對一系列可能的結果。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛集團。

All right. I just had a quick question on guidance. Based on your update, it still implies an acceleration in Q4 versus Q3 and then just thinking about that in the context of softer consumption trends, just wondering if there could be further risk there or just maybe what gives you the confidence that things might accelerate a bit in Q4 versus Q3.

好的。我有個關於指導方面的問題想請教。根據您提供的最新信息，這仍然意味著第四季度比第三季度加速成長。考慮到消費趨勢疲軟，我想知道是否存在進一步的風險，或者是什麼讓您確信第四季比第三季略有加速成長。

You're right, we are planning for a wide outcome in Q4, which is reflective of the comments I just made in terms of market growth assumptions. That really is the highest level of variability that we see. And the current guide, as I had in the prepared remarks, has a wide range from [0.5], I think, to 4.5% in the next quarter, which is indicative of the uncertainty we see from a consumer behavior standpoint.

你說得對，我們預計第四季將取得廣泛的成果，這反映了我剛才對市場成長假設的評論。這確實是我們所見到的最高水準的變異性。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，目前的指導範圍很廣，我認為下一季將從 0.5% 到 4.5% 不等，這表明從消費者行為的角度來看，存在不確定性。

The one uncertainty we believe that has impacted us in Q3 that is no longer part of the range that we're providing is inventory. We feel that consumption is now moving again in line with -- or inventory consumption is moving in line with shipments.

我們認為第三季對我們造成影響，但目前已不再屬於我們服務範圍的不確定因素是庫存。我們認為，消費現在又與出貨量保持一致——或者說，庫存消耗與出貨量保持一致。

So no inventory destabilization in the quarter. But we also don't assume that, that inventory that we lost in Q3 will come back because we believe it's an outcome of the consumer shifting into channels that are more inventory efficient. So the guide for the quarter is wide. We believe it appropriately reflects the range of outcomes we see and appropriately has risk protection for that range.

因此，本季沒有出現庫存不穩定的情況。但我們也不認為第三季損失的庫存會重新回來，因為我們認為這是消費者轉向庫存效率更高的管道的結果。所以本季的指導方針範圍很廣。我們認為它恰當地反映了我們所看到的各種結果，並對該範圍的風險提供了適當的保障。

Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

馬克·阿斯特拉坎，斯蒂費爾。

I wanted to go back to your commentary, Andre, about the shifting consumer in terms of where they're purchasing. You called out [club], you called out more mass channel. I don't think that's especially new. But I guess are you seeing acceleration in the most recent quarters is sort of one? And then two, if not directionally new, meaning that the consumer has been shifting to Walmart or Costco or club channels.

安德烈，我想回到你之前關於消費者購買地點變化的評論。你點名批評了[俱樂部]，你點名批評了更多大眾頻道。我覺得這不算什麼新鮮事。但我認為，最近幾季是否出現加速成長算是其中之一吧？其次，即便不是方向性上的新變化，也意味著消費者已經轉向沃爾瑪、好市多或會員製商店等管道。

In general, does that change the way that the company approaches selling into those channels from a price pack or volume versus price mix standpoint. Has that evolved over the last couple of years? And how do you see it kind of changing from here, especially in the context of what you called out more recently.

總的來說，這是否會改變公司從價格組合或銷售與價格組合角度進入這些管道的銷售方式？過去幾年裡，這種情況有改變嗎？那麼，您認為這種情況接下來會如何變化，尤其是在您最近提到的那些問題背景下？

No, you're exactly right. The trend is not new. We've been seeing this shift into large box retailers online and club for a number of quarters, and we've been talking about it. And so our portfolio, as you rightly say, is well positioned to play with the consumer moving and maybe accelerating the move a little bit over the past quarter into those retailers. Our brands are well positioned.

不，你說得完全正確。這種趨勢並非新鮮事。我們已經看到這種向大型零售商的線上銷售和會員制銷售模式轉變好幾個季度了，我們也一直在討論這個問題。因此，正如您所說，我們的投資組合已經做好充分準備，可以順應消費者的趨勢，並且在過去一個季度裡，這種趨勢可能會加速向這些零售商轉移。我們的品牌定位非常有利。

Our pack sizes and price points are adequate and we get great support across the entire trade landscape. So we're not worried about it. What -- I think maybe some of the elements that have accelerated that is a little bit less support in the drug channel because of the difficulties in the drug channel, and that accelerates, I think the move into some of the other channels we're talking about.

我們的包裝規格和價格定位都很合適，並且我們在整個貿易領域都得到了很好的支持。所以我們並不擔心。我認為加速這一現象的一些因素可能是，由於毒品管道的困難，對毒品管道的支持有所減少，這加速了向我們正在討論的其他管道的轉移。

But as you rightly say, I don't think it's a fundamental shift other than it gives us, I think, more clarity to explain why we see an overall inventory reduction in quarter three and why we believe that inventory will likely not come back because as we see more business from those channels and those retailers, they tend to be more inventory efficient, which is really the only structural element where it's relevant. Our brands are positioned well in all the channels, and that's part of the job.

但正如您所說，我認為這並非根本性的轉變，只是讓我們更清楚地解釋了為什麼我們在第三季度看到整體庫存下降，以及為什麼我們認為庫存可能不會回升，因為隨著這些渠道和零售商的業務增多，他們的庫存效率往往會更高，而這才是真正相關的唯一結構性因素。我們的品牌在所有管道都佔據了良好的定位，這也是我們工作的一部分。

We have to make sure we're there wherever the consumer decides to go.

我們必須確保無論消費者選擇去哪裡，我們都能在那裡。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

Andrea Teixeira，摩根大通。

So Andrea, first a clarification on the $1 billion -- $1.5 billion impact that you included from tariffs. Is that -- I'm assuming obviously that's an annualized impact and most related to side to raw material sourcing from that 10% that you talked about exposure to China in some of the exports of Canada that you alluded to.

安德里亞，首先請你澄清一下你提到的關稅造成的 10 億至 15 億美元的影響。也就是說——我假設這顯然是年度影響，並且主要與您提到的加拿大部分出口中對中國的 10% 原材料採購有關。

Is there any -- like when we think about then if that's correct, the real question that I have is that at the midpoint of that impact let's say, [1.25]. That would be around 3% of annual costs and pricing needed to offset that would be broadly 1 or 2 points. And as you said, you're going to use productivity as you always had leaned into productivity to offset other inflationary costs in the past.

是否存在——例如當我們思考這個問題時，如果這是正確的，我真正的問題是，假設在這種影響的中點，[1.25]那將佔年度成本的 3% 左右，而要抵銷這部分成本，價格大約需要上漲 1 到 2 個百分點。正如你所說，你將像以往一樣利用生產力來抵消其他通貨膨脹成本，就像過去一樣。

So it doesn't not seem hard to mitigate that from a value accretive. Also value accretive innovation that you have -- so how we should be thinking more long term or medium term, the mitigation efforts that you're going to have understandably not in the Q4 fiscal but going to the medium term?

因此，要減輕這種影響，使其不再具有增值作用，似乎並不難。此外，你們還擁有增值創新——那麼我們應該更多地從長期或中期角度考慮，你們的緩解措施顯然不會在第四財季實施，而是會持續到中期？

Andrea, yes, the $1 billion to $1.5 billion before tax is the impact that we are estimating based on what we know today. That means the tariff rates that have been announced and enacted both in the US and in all other markets in response to the US tariffs. Exactly as you say, that's about 3% of cost of goods sold about 140 to 180 basis points margin impact.

安德里亞，是的，稅前 10 億至 15 億美元的影響是我們根據目前所掌握的資訊估算出來的。這意味著美國和其他所有市場為應對美國加徵關稅而宣布和實施的關稅稅率。正如你所說，這大約佔銷售成本的 3%，對利潤率的影響約為 140 至 180 個基點。

The point -- this is not an average discussion, though, right? Because the impact is on certain SKUs on certain brands and certain category country combinations. So when we average this out across the globe, the numbers that you quote are correct.

重點是──這不是一場普通的討論，對吧？因為影響範圍僅限於某些品牌的某些 SKU 以及某些類別的國家組合。所以，當我們把這個數字放到全球平均計算時，你引用的數字是正確的。

But if you look at certain market category combinations, the numbers in terms of pricing are way more significant that we would have to take a net of what we believe we can deliver in productivity. And and other mitigating factors.

但如果你觀察某些市場類別組合，你會發現定價方面的數字遠比我們認為在生產力方面能夠實現的淨值要重要得多。以及其他緩解因素。

So that's exactly the work that the teams are doing now, and that's why we keep all of the tools on the table. We will start with productivity. We will look at sourcing changes and formulation changes, which typically take longer. We will look at pricing with innovation, and we will look at straight pricing. All of those elements are on the table, and we're working through them right now.

所以，這正是各團隊目前正在做的工作，這也是為什麼我們要把所有工具都放在桌面上的原因。我們先從生產力談起。我們將研究採購變更和配方變更，這通常需要更長時間。我們將探討創新定價策略，也會探討直接定價策略。所有這些因素都在考慮範圍內，我們正在逐一解決。

But it's important to understand, this is an average global number. The number that you have by SKU, by category, by brand, by market is very different. And that's where the decision needs to be made, right? That's what the consumer will see, and that's where we need to make the interventions. But at an aggregate level, it's manageable. We'll just need to work through the details across the portfolio, which is exactly what team is doing.

但要注意的是，這是一個全球平均數字。按 SKU、類別、品牌、市場統計的數量差異很大。所以，這就是需要做出決定的地方，對吧？這就是消費者會看到的，也是我們需要介入的地方。但從總體上看，這是可以控制的。我們只需要仔細梳理整個投資組合的細節，而這正是團隊正在做的。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

Olivia Tong，Raymond James。

My question is also around the pretax tariff impact. So the $1 billion to $1.5 billion. And if you could just compare contrast to the [$160 million, $170 million] in Q4? Was there some forward buying or other factors that are resulting in a smaller impact in Q4 versus your anticipated full year run rate?

我的問題也與稅前關稅的影響有關。所以是10億到15億美元。如果能與第四季的[1.6億美元，1.7億美元]比較就好了？是否存在提前購買或其他因素導致第四季度的影響小於您預期的全年運行水平？

And then just following up on that, I wanted to know a little bit more in terms of the pricing plans to mitigate the tariff impact because the categories that sound like they're hardest hit, for example, like tissue towel, are categories that have seen a more substantial deceleration and typically have significantly higher private label exposure and competition overall.

然後，我想就此進一步了解一下，為了減輕關稅的影響，有哪些定價方案需要製定，因為像紙巾這類聽起來受影響最大的品類，其增速已經大幅放緩，而且通常自有品牌的市場份額和整體競爭程度也更高。

So as you -- as the team do their work in terms of trying to figure out how to go about pricing. If you could just talk in terms of the specifics around categories that would be great.

所以，當你們——當團隊努力思考如何定價時。如果您能具體談談各個類別的情況，那就太好了。

The Q4 impact of [$100 million to $160 million] BT is just one month because the way the tariffs flow, they are an inventoriable costs so they flow through our variance holding policy, which means we really only have one month of impact within quarter four.

BT 第四季的影響（1 億至 1.6 億美元）僅持續一個月，因為關稅的流動方式是可計入庫存的成本，因此它們會透過我們的差異持有政策進行流動，這意味著我們在第四季度實際上只會受到一個月的影響。

So then you take that times 12, you get straight to the $1 billion to $1.5 billion before tax that you are quoting. Look, on your pricing plans, what you're describing is exactly the discussion we have in every pricing move. There's commodities as foreign exchange rate effects. Now there's tariff effects.

所以，把這個數字乘以 12，就能直接得到你所說的稅前 10 億至 15 億美元。你看，關於你們的定價方案，你所描述的正是我們在每次價格調整中都會討論的問題。大宗商品會對匯率產生影響。現在關稅也會產生影響。

So working through exactly what is the right plan, by brand, by market? What combination of pricing over what period of time is the right answer. That's a very complex exercise, and it really can't be answered at a market or at a category level. So let us do the work. And as we do that, it will be reflected in our guidance range but is not new to us. This is what we do. And generally, we are doing it well.

所以，我們需要逐一、逐一市場制定最適合的方案嗎？在什麼時間段內，哪一種定價組合才是最佳方案？這是一個非常複雜的問題，無法在市場或品類層面上得到解答。那麼，讓我們開始工作吧。當我們這樣做時，這將反映在我們的指導價範圍內，但這對我們來說並不新鮮。這就是我們所做的。總的來說，我們做得很好。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

Robert Ottenstein，Evercore ISI。

A couple of follow-ups. First, in the press release, I believe you stated that in China, you were taking pricing in skin care. So I'd like to understand a little bit the logic behind that given that it's a tough market. and what gives you the confidence to get that price? And is it, in fact, sort of strategic pricing that you need to be higher to get the high-end consumer interest?

還有一些後續問題。首先，在新聞稿中，我相信您提到了在中國，您正在對護膚品進行定價。鑑於目前市場行情艱難，我想了解背後的邏輯。是什麼讓你有信心賣到這個價格？事實上，是不是需要採取某種策略定價策略，把價格定得更高才能吸引高端消費者的興趣？

So that's first. And then second, love to understand a little bit more about how -- from your perspective, the major retailers are thinking about what's going on with significant changes in trade policy, how they're thinking about their suppliers in that context, their suppliers, supply chains? Are -- is there any indication that they are looking to change who they're working with, given various people's supply chains?

這是第一點。其次，我想多了解一下——從您的角度來看，大型零售商是如何看待貿易政策的重大變化，以及在這種背景下他們是如何看待他們的供應商、他們的供應鏈的？是否有任何跡象表明，鑑於各方供應鏈的變化，他們正在考慮更換合作夥伴？

And are they looking at private label differently? You had mentioned that private label continues to be flat or trending down, is that because the consumer, for whatever reason, doesn't want private label because the brands are marketing so well and the value is so strong? Or are the retailers, at least in your categories, deemphasizing private label? And what's the logic behind that? And maybe in that context, touching on diapers.

他們對自有品牌的看法是否有所不同？您曾提到自有品牌持續保持穩定或下降趨勢，這是因為消費者出於某種原因不想要自有品牌嗎？因為品牌行銷做得太好了，產品性價比太高了？或者說，至少在你所在的品類中，零售商是否逐漸淡化自有品牌？這背後的邏輯是什麼？或許在這種背景下，可以談到尿布。

China skin care pricing, just a very quick answer, it's behind innovation. We have strong innovation out on Olay. We talked about the super premium innovation on SK-II, and that's just congruent with the business model. You innovate, you price, and you provide better value and better outcomes for the consumer and drive market growth. I won't speak for retailers, Robert, many of the aspects of the question you asked, I think are better asked of our retail partners.

中國保養品定價，簡單來說，就是落後創新。我們在Olay方面擁有強大的創新實力。我們討論了SK-II的超高端創新，這與它的商業模式完全吻合。你不斷創新，制定合理的價格，為消費者提供更高的價值和更好的結果，從而推動市場成長。羅伯特，我不能代表零售商發言，你提出的許多問題，我認為最好還是問我們的零售夥伴。

What I will tell you is that our vision of partnering with our retailers as we talked about Supply Chain 3.0, integrating our supply chains because we are close in terms of manufacturing locations, warehousing locations to their supply chains, I think is an advantage that played out pre-COVID throughout COVID, throughout the inflationary period where sourcing became more difficult and more expensive.

我想告訴大家的是，正如我們之前討論的供應鏈 3.0，我們與零售商合作的願景是整合我們的供應鏈，因為我們在製造地點和倉儲地點方面與他們的供應鏈很接近。我認為，這種優勢在新冠疫情之前、疫情期間以及通貨膨脹時期都發揮了作用，因為在通貨膨脹時期，採購變得更加困難和昂貴。

And I don't expect that to change. I think we appreciate our retailers' willingness to engage with us and build a better supply chain. And I think they appreciate our ability to provide supply chains that are stable, reliable and cost efficient. And I think that is the focus for us.

我不認為這種情況會改變。我認為我們很欣賞零售商願意與我們合作，共同建立更好的供應鏈。我認為他們很欣賞我們能夠提供穩定、可靠且經濟高效的供應鏈。我認為這就是我們關注的重點。

I won't speak to their private label strategies. I think we will see them articulate that and play it out. What our job is to provide the best possible branded offering in the store, -- which is why we continue to focus on investment innovation across both the product as well as go-to-market and supply chain.

我不會評論他們的自有品牌策略。我認為我們會看到他們闡明這一點並付諸行動。我們的工作是為商店提供最好的品牌產品，因此我們持續專注於產品、市場推廣和供應鏈的投資創新。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

凱文·格倫迪，法國巴黎銀行。

Rookie mistake, sorry about that. Andre, question on enterprise markets here, which have slowed a bit. Can you just comment broadly -- and I know some of this is China, we've talked about the Middle East before. But what was really sort of a key growth driver for the company now has slowed pretty precipitously? Can you comment on industry growth rates in key enterprise markets? How much of this is slowing? How much of this is industry specific versus how much of this might be more Procter specific because we don't have a great deal of granularity on that?

新手錯誤，抱歉。安德烈，這裡有個關於企業市場的問題，這個市場最近成長放緩。您能否大致談談您的看法——我知道其中一些涉及中國，我們之前也討論過中東問題。但曾經是公司關鍵成長動力的因素，如今卻急劇放緩了？能否談談主要企業市場的產業成長率？其中有多少正在放緩？其中有多少是業界特有的，又有多少是寶潔公司特有的，因為我們在這方面沒有太多細緻的資訊？

And then sort of more forward-looking as we think about fiscal '26, what is the company's sort of expectation, broadly speaking, in terms of growth rates for enterprise markets? So any color there would be helpful.

然後，展望 2026 財年，從更宏觀的角度來看，公司對企業市場的成長率有何預期？所以任何顏色都會有所幫助。

If you look at the growth rate of enterprise markets in our portfolio, it has been, as you say, it has been a great contributor to the company results, 6% last year, 15%, 10%. So a great run. The market dynamics are different by region. As I mentioned before, Latin America -- we feel very good about the market growth rates are stabilizing. We are doing well within the key markets.

如果你看一下我們投資組合中企業市場的成長率，正如你所說，它對公司業績做出了巨大貢獻，去年為 6%，今年為 15%，今年為 10%。跑得真棒。不同地區的市場動態各不相同。正如我之前提到的，拉丁美洲——我們對市場成長率趨於穩定感到非常樂觀。我們在主要市場表現良好。

So I continue to see North America -- Latin America contributing mid- to high single-digit growth rates to our portfolio. Enterprise markets in Europe are heavily impacted by Turkey, and you've seen the situation in Turkey, both from an economic standpoint and from a political standpoint, that continues to weigh on enterprise markets.

因此，我繼續看到北美和拉丁美洲為我們的投資組合貢獻了中高個位數的成長率。歐洲的企業市場深受土耳其的影響，而土耳其的局勢，無論從經濟角度或政治角度來看，都持續對企業市場造成壓力。

But if you look outside of Turkey, again, growth rates are stabilizing. And I feel good about our ability to continue to drive growth at average portfolio rates or above from Europe enterprise markets. And then the last region, Asia, Middle East, Africa within the portfolio, the biggest driver continues to be the Middle East.

但如果你把目光投向土耳其以外的地區，你會發現經濟成長率同樣趨於穩定。我對歐洲企業市場能夠繼續以平均或高於平均投資組合成長率的速度推動成長的能力感到樂觀。最後，在投資組合中的亞洲、中東和非洲地區，最大的驅動力仍然是中東。

But if you look at markets like India, we are profitable, and India is driving mid-single-digit growth very nicely. We have local production on the ground. We have R&D capability on the ground. The market gets better every time we look at it. So again, we feel very solid about growth opportunity there, but it's enterprise markets.

但如果你看看像印度這樣的市場，我們會發現我們獲利狀況良好，而且印度正在推動中等個位數的成長，表現非常出色。我們在當地有生產基地。我們在當地具備研發能力。我們每次觀察市場，都會發現它變得更好了。所以，我們對那裡的成長機會感到非常有信心，但那是企業市場。

They are volatile by default. That's why we manage them as enterprise markets. And the same volatility we see at the moment in our focus markets, for sure, is to be expected in enterprise markets. So I won't give you a '26 guide. I will tell you the same thing I've mentioned before, if there's any conclusion from the current visibility is, it's going to be a wide range.

它們本身就具有波動性。這就是為什麼我們要將它們作為企業市場來管理的原因。我們目前在重點市場中看到的這種波動，在企業市場中也肯定會出現。所以我不會給你 26 年的指南。我再說一次我之前說過的話，如果從目前的能見度來看有什麼結論的話，那就是範圍會很廣。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

Kaumil Gajrawala，傑富瑞集團。

I guess a couple of things. There's so much conversation about macro. But if I recall, the innovation pipeline was so much heavier in the back half than the front half of this year. So is -- with everything that's going on in whether it's macro or tariffs that sort of thing, is it slowing your -- the post of innovation rollouts or expectations from contribution of those innovations? And I suppose I see that in the context of sometimes when the consumer is under pressure, they tend to not want to try new things. And I'm just wondering if that sort of changes the calculus on your plans for rollouts.

我想有兩件事。關於宏觀經濟的討論太多了。但我記得，今年下半年的創新項目比上半年多得多。那麼，鑑於目前宏觀經濟情勢或關稅等各種因素，是否會影響創新產品的推出速度或降低人們對這些創新產品貢獻的預期？我想，有時候當消費者面臨壓力時，他們往往不願意嘗試新事物，或許可以解釋這個問題。我只是想知道這是否會改變你們的推廣計劃的考慮。

I don't think it does. As we said, we are committed to continue to drive innovation into our categories. And for us, we continue to believe it's the most important driver of category growth and therefore, getting that incremental consumption, we've highlighted as a big opportunity in focused markets, both Europe and North America. I think the trick here is simplicity of the proposition. What you don't see us do generally is try to drive SKUs for news and make the category more complex.

我不這麼認為。正如我們所說，我們致力於持續推動我們各個品類的創新。對我們來說，我們仍然認為這是品類成長最重要的驅動力，因此，獲得這種增量消費，我們認為是歐洲和北美等重點市場的一個巨大機會。我認為關鍵在於命題的簡潔性。我們通常不會做的是，為了吸引新品而刻意增加 SKU，讓品類變得更加複雜。

What we're trying to do is restage propositions and be very clear on what the incremental benefit and incremental value for the consumers, supported by our retail partners. If we do that right, it is category accretive. And again, you heard us talk many times about SKU complexity and simplifying the shopping experience for consumers.

我們正在努力重新制定方案，並非常清楚地說明消費者能獲得的增量收益和增量價值，同時得到我們零售合作夥伴的支持。如果我們這樣做得當，它就能增加類別。我們之前也多次談到 SKU 的複雜性以及如何簡化消費者的購物體驗。

And you're right, now is the time more than ever to go down that path and work with our retail partners to ensure that all the noise that is irrelevant for the consumer, as expressed by being a small fraction of the sales while being a bigger part of the shelf or that noise needs to go away so the consumer can more clearly see the benefits of the strong innovation that some of the biggest brands are bringing to market.

你說得對，現在比以往任何時候都更需要走這條路，與我們的零售合作夥伴攜手合作，確保所有與消費者無關的噪音——比如銷量佔比很小卻佔據貨架更大面積的商品——都能消失，這樣消費者才能更清楚地看到一些大品牌正在推向市場的強大創新帶來的好處。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow，TD Cowen。

Andre, I wanted a little more clarity on the commodity inflation guidance. It stayed the same at $200 million. Is that including the tariff impact or not? I think that's the first question. And then also, we've noticed that resin prices are down a lot since the start of the year, probably in the mid-teens related to crude oil. Is it possible as you head into fiscal '26 that there actually is this crude oil benefit that flows through and helps reduce the cost of the tariffs that hit your P&L?

安德烈，我想更清楚地了解大宗商品通膨預期。金額仍為 2 億美元。這是否包括關稅的影響？我認為這是第一個問題。此外，我們也注意到，自年初以來樹脂價格大幅下降，可能與原油價格相關，目前處於十幾個百分點左右。進入 2026 財年，是否有可能出現原油帶來的收益，從而降低關稅成本，進而影響您的損益表？

The commodity inflation number that is quoted, the $200 million is excluding the tariff impact. So for clarity, we kept it separate. So we see $200 million impact from commodity inflation, and -- sorry, $100 million to $160 million impact, growth impact from tariffs, and that impact for next year is $1 billion to $1.5 billion, again, growth impact of tariffs. The commodity impact for next year, I won't comment on. We always forecast that spot. So whatever the spot is at that point in time when we lock our plans for next year will be underlying guidance. And if anything, I'll give you the same answer, the range will be wide.

所引用的商品通膨數據 2 億美元不包括關稅影響。為了清晰起見，我們將其分開存放。因此，我們看到大宗商品通膨帶來 2 億美元的影響，——抱歉，是 1 億至 1.6 億美元的影響，關稅帶來的成長影響，而明年關稅帶來的成長影響將達到 10 億至 15 億美元。對於明年大宗商品市場的影響，我不予置評。我們一直預測那個位置。因此，當我們最終確定明年的計劃時，屆時的情況將作為基本指導原則。如果非要說有什麼不同的話，我的答案還是一樣，範圍會很廣。

Korinne Wolfmeyer, Piper Sandler.

科琳·沃爾夫邁耶，派珀·桑德勒。

Just wanted to touch a little bit on how you feel about the broader agility of your supply chain? And how quickly and easily could you shift things around to try and mitigate the impacts here in the more of the near term? And then also, can you just touch a little bit on what your conversations with both your suppliers and also maybe the retail partners have been on the potential to kind of help absorb those tariff costs? Any context there would be great.

我想稍微談談您對公司供應鏈整體敏捷性的看法？那麼，在短期內，您能以多快的速度和多容易的方式調整策略，以減輕這些影響呢？另外，您能否簡要談談您與供應商以及零售合作夥伴就如何幫助公司分擔關稅成本進行的討論？如果能提供一些背景資訊就太好了。

Yes, the first part of the answer I'll give you is we are I think in the favorable position that the majority of our supply chain is close to our consumption. We've made those investments very deliberately over the last seven, eight years. We invested more than $10 billion just in the US to locate production close to the US consumer, create jobs.

是的，我給的答案的第一部分是，我認為我們處於有利地位，因為我們的大部分供應鏈都靠近我們的消費地。在過去的七、八年裡，我們經過深思熟慮後才進行了這些投資。我們光在美國就投資了超過100億美元，將生產基地設在靠近美國消費者的地方，創造就業機會。

And I think we're seeing the benefit of that which was enabled by a more competitive tax environment in the US. So we're starting from a good place. Supply chain changes require certainty. We don't want to make short-term sourcing changes or short-term formulation changes unless we know what the environment is we're dealing with. So we're really waiting for certainty at this point in time for us to make decisions because those decisions are generally a, they have lead time of multiple months, sometimes years.

我認為我們正在看到美國更具競爭力的稅收環境所帶來的好處。所以我們起點不錯。供應鏈變革需要確定性。除非我們了解我們所處的環境，否則我們不想做出短期採購變更或短期配方變更。所以，目前我們真的在等待確定性的結果才能做出決定，因為這些決定通常需要幾個月甚至幾年的準備時間。

And b, reversing them have similar lead times. So any knee jerk reaction doesn't make a whole lot of sense. On our conversations with retail partners and suppliers, I won't comment. They are ongoing in any environment. And again, we had a lot of volatility over the last six, seven years.

b，逆轉它們的提前期也類似。所以任何倉促的反應都意義不大。對於我們與零售合作夥伴和供應商的對話，我不予置評。它們在任何環境下都會持續發生。而且，過去六、七年裡，市場波動很大。

So certainly, the communication lines are always open. And again, you see our plan develop over the next few months as we get closer to the year and hopefully have a bit more visibility. That concludes the call for today.

所以，溝通管道當然始終暢通。接下來幾個月，隨著年底臨近，我們的計畫也會逐步完善，希望屆時能有更清晰的進展。今天的通話到此結束。

Thank you for your time. I hope you see and feel our commitment and our conviction that the business model, the strategy across the portfolio we've chosen, the focus on superiority, the focus on productivity, the strength of our organization has us both committed and convinced that we will be able to deliver on algorithm over a two to three-year period.

感謝您抽出時間。我希望您能看到並感受到我們的承諾和信念，即我們所選擇的商業模式、整個投資組合的策略、對卓越性的關注、對生產力的關注以及我們組織的實力，都讓我們充滿信心，相信我們能夠在兩到三年內實現演算法目標。

While maintaining investment in the business for growth with our retail partners and the benefit of consumers in the near term and the midterm. That conviction will not change, and we will manage our business in the short term and the midterm along those lines.

在維持對業務投資以實現與零售合作夥伴共同成長的同時，也為消費者帶來短期和中期利益。這一信念不會改變，我們將按照這一思路來管理我們的短期和中期業務。

Thank you for your time today, and we'll be available for any other questions you might have. Have a great day.

感謝您今天抽出時間，如果您還有其他問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。祝你有美好的一天。