Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is John, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic third quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫約翰，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 PotlatchDeltic 2024 年第三季電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne Wasechek, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.

現在我想請副總裁兼財務長 Wayne Wasechek 先生致開幕詞。先生，您可以繼續了。

Good morning, and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 PotlatchDeltic 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statements in our press release, on the presentation slides, and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements.

與我一起參加電話會議的是 PotlatchDeltic 總裁兼執行長 Eric Cremers。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們的新聞稿、簡報投影片以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中有關與這些前瞻性陳述相關的風險的警示性陳述。

Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to the presentation slides and on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com. I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will then review our third quarter results and our outlook.

另請注意，非 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表可在簡報投影片的附錄和我們的網站 www.potlatchdeltic.com 上找到。我會將電話轉給埃里克徵求一些意見，然後我將回顧我們的第三季業績和前景。

Well, thank you, Wayne. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us.

嗯，謝謝你，韋恩。大家早安。感謝您加入我們。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we reported third quarter total adjusted EBITDDA of $46 million. These are solid results, given the challenging lumber markets and the macroeconomic environment we are operating in.

昨天收盤後，我們報告第三季調整後 EBITDDA 總額為 4,600 萬美元。考慮到充滿挑戰的木材市場和我們所處的宏觀經濟環境，這些都是堅實的成果。

I appreciate our team's focus and strong operational execution to date this year, especially amidst several company initiatives highlighted by our modernization and expansion project at our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill.

我很欣賞我們團隊今年迄今為止的專注和強大的營運執行力，特別是在我們阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠的現代化和擴建項目所強調的多項公司舉措中。

Turning to our third quarter business results. Our Timberlands division generated adjusted EBITDDA of $36 million in the third quarter. In total, we harvested $2 million across our Northern and Southern regions in the third quarter.

轉向我們第三季的業務業績。我們的 Timberlands 部門第三季調整後 EBITDDA 為 3,600 萬美元。第三季度，我們在北部和南部地區總共收穫了 200 萬美元。

In Idaho, although strong cedar prices supported our aggregate sawlog prices, the overall softness in lumber markets continued to exert downward pressure on indexed sawlog prices. Meanwhile, Southern sawlog prices remained relatively stable despite the typical seasonal increase in log supply and measured mill consumption.

在愛達荷州，儘管強勁的雪松價格支撐了我們的鋸木總價格，但木材市場的整體疲軟繼續對指數鋸木價格施加下行壓力。同時，儘管原木供應量和工廠消耗量出現典型的季節性增長，但南方鋸木價格仍保持相對穩定。

At the end of September, Hurricane Helene made a historic landfall in the US Southeast, causing widespread damage to timberland throughout the region. Based on our initial assessment of our Georgia timberlands, we estimate the damage to be limited to approximately 2,000 acres, which will not have a significant impact to our operations. We have already secured log and haul crews and commenced salvage operations to monetize the downed timber, which will minimize the financial impact of the storm on our business.

九月底，颶風海倫在美國東南部歷史性登陸，對整個地區的林地造成大規模破壞。根據我們對喬治亞州林地的初步評估，我們估計損失僅限於約 2,000 英畝，這不會對我們的營運產生重大影響。我們已經安排了伐木和運輸人員，並開始打撈行動，將倒下的木材貨幣化，這將最大限度地減少風暴對我們業務的財務影響。

Moving to our Wood Products segment results. Adjusted EBITDDA was a loss of $10 million in the third quarter. Our financial performance was weighed down by two factors: first, the overall ongoing weakness in lumber markets where supply continued to outpace demand; and second, the start-up costs of our recently modernized Waldo sawmill, which adversely impacted the P&L by about $3 million.

轉向我們的木製品部門表現。第三季調整後 EBITDDA 虧損 1,000 萬美元。我們的財務表現受到兩個因素的影響：首先，木材市場整體持續疲軟，供應持續超過需求；其次，我們最近現代化的 Waldo 鋸木廠的啟動成本，對損益產生了約 300 萬美元的不利影響。

Early in the third quarter, lumber markets hit cyclical lows, reaching their lowest point since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. However, by mid-quarter, lumber markets began a slow climb out of a very deep trough as supply and demand dynamics improved, spurred by an estimated 3 billion board feet of indefinite and permanent North American capacity curtailments since the start of the year. Lumber markets have improved considerably since July with the Random Lengths Composite having improved from a low of $359 up to a recent $418 or increasing 16%.

第三季初，木材市場觸及週期性低點，達到2020年初疫情爆發以來的最低點。然而，到了季度中期，由於北美自今年年初以來無限期和永久性產能削減約 30 億板英尺，導致供需動態改善，木材市場開始緩慢爬出深谷。自 7 月以來，木材市場已顯著改善，隨機長度複合材料已從 359 美元的低點上漲至最近的 418 美元，漲幅為 16%。

Now turning to our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill modernization and expansion project. We successfully completed construction in Q3 as scheduled and within budget. Early in the quarter, the mill experienced a limited period of downtime to integrate the new equipment, reducing our lumber production by approximately 25 million board feet for the third quarter.

現在轉向我們位於阿肯色州沃爾多的鋸木廠現代化和擴建項目。我們在第三季度按計劃並在預算內成功完成了施工。本季初，工廠經歷了一段有限的停機時間來整合新設備，導致第三季的木材產量減少了約 2500 萬板英尺。

Following completion, we immediately transitioned the mill into the planned ramp-up phase. Based on other brownfield projects in the industry, we expect it will take six to 12 months to reach the mill's new capacity of 275 million board feet per year.

完工後，我們立即將工廠轉入計畫的產能提升階段。根據業內其他棕地項目，我們預計工廠需要 6 至 12 個月的時間才能達到每年 2.75 億板英尺的新產能。

As we advance through the ramp-up phase, I am very encouraged by the mill's performance, especially given that we are in the early stages of this phase. As a reminder, we expect that the completed project will increase the mill's annual capacity by 85 million board feet, improve recovery by approximately 6%, and reduce cash processing costs by about 30%.

當我們進入加速階段時，我對工廠的表現感到非常鼓舞，特別是考慮到我們正處於該階段的早期階段。提醒一下，我們預計工程竣工後，工廠的年產能將增加 8,500 萬板英尺，回收率提高約 6%，現金處理成本降低約 30%。

Once the ramp-up phase is completed, we expect the mill to generate approximately $25 million of incremental EBITDDA annually under a mid-sales cycle environment. As we navigate the challenging lumber markets, we remain focused on the areas within our control, such as optimizing our product mix, efficiently running our mills, and effectively managing costs. By maintaining this focus and continuing to increase production of Waldo, we expect improvement in unit manufacturing and log costs within our Wood Products division as we head into the fourth quarter.

一旦產能提升階段完成，我們預計工廠在中期銷售週期環境下每年將產生約 2500 萬美元的增量 EBITDDA。當我們應對充滿挑戰的木材市場時，我們仍然專注於我們控制範圍內的領域，例如優化我們的產品組合、高效運作我們的工廠以及有效管理成本。透過保持這一重點並繼續增加 Waldo 的產量，我們預計在進入第四季度時，我們的木製品部門的單位製造和原木成本將有所改善。

Now shifting to our Real Estate segment. This business generated $32 million in adjusted EBITDDA in the third quarter. On the real estate side of the business, we sold [6,548] acres at over $3,700 an acre. We continue to benefit from a healthy demand for rural properties, which produce value-added transactions at significant premiums to underlying timberland values.

現在轉向我們的房地產領域。該業務第三季調整後 EBITDDA 為 3,200 萬美元。在房地產業務方面，我們以每英畝超過 3,700 美元的價格出售了 [6,548] 英畝土地。我們繼續受益於對農村房產的健康需求，這些房產產生的增值交易的價格遠高於林地的基本價值。

For the development side of our Real Estate business, we sold 53 residential lots at an average price of $205,000 per lot in our Chenal Valley master planned community in Little Rock. This average price per lot is a record and reflects a heavy mix of premium lots located on or near the community golf course. Additionally, we are encouraged by the steady interest in our recent small to midsized lot offerings from regional builders in the Chenal area.

在我們的房地產業務開發方面，我們在小石城的 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區中以每塊平均價格 205,000 美元的價格出售了 53 個住宅用地。每塊地塊的平均價格創下了紀錄，反映了位於社區高爾夫球場或其附近的優質地塊的大量混合。此外，Chenal 地區的區域建築商對我們最近提供的中小型地塊產品的持續興趣令我們感到鼓舞。

Regarding our emerging national -- natural climate solutions opportunities, we continue to build momentum in this space. Beginning with solar, we look to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy by offering select tracks for solar development.

關於我們新興的國家自然氣候解決方案機會，我們繼續在這一領域建立動力。從太陽能開始，我們希望透過提供精選的太陽能開發途徑來利用對再生能源不斷增長的需求。

Our pipeline of option contracts with solar developers continues to grow, with several new contracts added since the last quarter. We now have solar option contracts for over 35,000 acres or over 1% of our timberland ownership with an estimated net present value of about $400 million.

我們與太陽能開發商的選擇合約不斷增加，自上個季度以來增加了幾份新合約。我們現在擁有超過 35,000 英畝或超過 1% 的林地所有權的太陽能期權合同，估計淨現值約為 4 億美元。

Our pace of execution of solar option agreements for 2024, has exceeded our previous estimate. And we continue to have discussions with several high-quality counterparties to build upon our existing portfolio.

我們 2024 年太陽能選擇權協議的執行速度超出了我們先前的估計。我們繼續與幾個高品質的交易對手進行討論，以建立我們現有的投資組合。

Another natural climate solutions opportunity for us lies in southwestern Arkansas, where the Smackover Formation is partially located. This region has gained attention recently for its lithium deposits, in fact, one of the largest known deposits in the world.

我們的另一個自然氣候解決方案機會位於阿肯色州西南部，斯馬科弗地層部分位於此處。該地區最近因其鋰礦床而受到關注，事實上，這是世界上已知最大的礦床之一。

This is an exciting prospect for us due to the growing demand for lithium for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage. We believe that our southwestern Arkansas land base is ideally located to participate in this opportunity. We are evaluating the potential magnitude of this emerging initiative and are in negotiations with key developers to lease subsurface rights within our ownership for lithium development.

由於電動車電池和再生能源儲存對鋰的需求不斷增長，這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的前景。我們相信，我們阿肯色州西南部的陸地基地地理位置優越，能夠參與這個機會。我們正在評估這項新興舉措的潛在規模，並與主要開發商進行談判，以租賃我們所有權內的地下權利進行鋰開發。

Shifting to forest carbon credits, recent disruptions in voluntary carbon credit markets have been driven by the demand for greater transparency and governance of credits. Consequently, interest in proven high-quality credits continues to grow.

轉向森林碳信用，最近自願碳信用市場的混亂是由對提高信用透明度和治理的需求所推動的。因此，人們對經過驗證的高品質信貸的興趣持續增長。

Carbon credit projects for forestry are complex, and we are carefully assessing potential project methodologies from the leading registries as they continue to evolve. After our analysis is complete, which is expected in the next few months, we will have a better sense of timing to bring a high-quality, high transparent carbon project to market. We believe that carbon projects with these traits will attract the highest demand and consequently command premium pricing.

林業碳信用項目很複雜，隨著主要登記機構的不斷發展，我們正在仔細評估潛在的項目方法。預計在未來幾個月內完成分析後，我們將更能把握時機，將高品質、高透明度的碳專案推向市場。我們相信，具有這些特徵的碳項目將吸引最高的需求，從而獲得溢價。

In addition to the projects I just mentioned, we are also exploring other NCS opportunities ranging from carbon capture and storage to bioenergy and biofuels. Although these initiatives are not as far along as our other NCS projects, we believe they have the potential for significant long-term value creation. We continue to believe that these natural climate solutions opportunities will ultimately boost demand for our rural land, likely driving timberland values higher.

除了我剛才提到的項目外，我們還在探索其他 NCS 機會，從碳捕獲和儲存到生物能源和生物燃料。儘管這些舉措不如我們其他 NCS 專案那麼深入，但我們相信它們具有創造重大長期價值的潛力。我們仍然相信，這些自然氣候解決方案機會最終將增加對我們農村土地的需求，可能會推高林地價值。

Switching to capital allocation. We remain disciplined stewards of our shareholders' capital. Our priorities include returning capital to our shareholders, investing in high-return capital projects, and identifying strategic acquisition opportunities. We always prioritize long-term value creation when considering each alternative.

轉向資本配置。我們仍然是股東資本的嚴格管家。我們的首要任務包括向股東返還資本、投資高回報資本項目以及識別策略性收購機會。在考慮每種替代方案時，我們始終優先考慮長期價值創造。

This quarter, share repurchases remained an attractive capital allocation option as we continue to trade below our estimated net asset value. In the third quarter, we repurchased $2 million worth of shares. Year-to-date through the end of the third quarter, we have returned $27 million to shareholders through share repurchases, leaving us with $98 million remaining under our repurchase program.

本季度，股票回購仍然是一個有吸引力的資本配置選擇，因為我們的交易價格繼續低於我們估計的資產淨值。第三季度，我們回購了價值 200 萬美元的股票。年初至今，截至第三季末，我們已透過股票回購向股東返還 2,700 萬美元，回購計畫剩餘 9,800 萬美元。

Turning our attention to the US housing market. Homebuyers have remained hesitant due to elevated interest rates, along with concerns about the overall economy slowing. Despite these headwinds, new home sales have been resilient as sales in September reached the highest level in 16 months.

將我們的注意力轉向美國房地產市場。由於利率上升以及對整體經濟放緩的擔憂，購屋者仍然猶豫不決。儘管有這些不利因素，新屋銷售仍保持彈性，9 月的銷售量達到 16 個月來的最高水準。

Large homebuilders have continued to offer rate buydowns and other incentives to drive new construction demand. As a result, single-family starts have hovered near or above 1 million starts for the past year. As for multifamily construction, activity has been hampered by a glut of units coming into the market, along with restrictive construction financing.

大型住宅建築商繼續提供利率下調和其他激勵措施來推動新建築需求。因此，去年單戶住宅的開工量一直徘徊在 100 萬套左右或以上。至於多戶型建築，由於大量單位進入市場以及建築融資受到限制，活動受到阻礙。

On the broader economic front, cooling inflation data prompted the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September for the first time in four years. As the Federal Reserve begins to ease its restrictive rate policy, we believe this will promote growth in single-family construction and help alleviate financing constraints in multifamily housing. Additionally, this should accelerate existing home sales from homeowners locked into low mortgage rates.

在更廣泛的經濟方面，通膨數據降溫促使聯準會在 9 月四年來首次降息。隨著聯準會開始放鬆限制性利率政​​策，我們相信這將促進單戶住宅建設的成長，並有助於緩解多戶住宅的融資約束。此外，這應該會加速鎖定低抵押貸款利率的房主的現有房屋銷售。

Long-term housing fundamentals remain strong, supported by an undersupply of homes, favorable demographics and increasing household formations. We believe that improved housing affordability from lower interest rates, coupled with these strong fundamentals, will create significant tailwinds for lumber market demand, fueling growth in our businesses.

在住房供應不足、有利的人口結構和不斷增加的家庭結構的支撐下，長期住房基本面仍然強勁。我們相信，較低的利率帶來的住房負擔能力的提高，加上這些強勁的基本面，將為木材市場需求創造巨大的推動力，推動我們業務的成長。

Now regarding the Repair and Remodel segment, which, of course, is the largest demand driver for lumber, activity has been sluggish throughout the year, particularly in the do-it-yourself sector. Recent challenges in this segment appear to stem from the pull forward of projects during the pandemic, higher financing costs for discretionary home projects, and low turnover of existing homes, which usually stimulates repair and remodel activity.

現在，就修理和改造領域而言，這當然是木材最大的需求驅動因素，但全年活動一直低迷，尤其是在自己動手做領域。這一領域最近的挑戰似乎源於大流行期間項目的推進、可自由支配的住房項目的融資成本上升以及現有房屋的周轉率低，這通常會刺激維修和改造活動。

However, the fundamentals for repair and remodel remain positive with an aging housing stock averaging over 40 years and elevated home equity levels. Additionally, with the Federal Reserve beginning its rate cutting cycle, we anticipate an increase in residential improvement and repair spending due to pent-up demand and the acceleration of new home construction and sales of existing homes.

然而，修復和改造的基本面依然樂觀，房屋存量平均老化超過 40 年，房屋淨值水準不斷提高。此外，隨著聯準會開始降息週期，由於被壓抑的需求以及新房屋建設和現有房屋銷售的加速，我們預計住宅改善和維修支出將會增加。

Looking forward, we maintain a favorable outlook on demand fundamentals in housing, repair and remodel, and natural climate solutions opportunities, all of which support growth in our businesses. Additionally, we remain focused on maximizing operational and financial performance across all of our business segments. With an investment-grade balance sheet, ample liquidity and a disciplined capital allocation strategy, we are well positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們對住房、維修和改造以及自然氣候解決方案機會的需求基本面保持樂觀前景，所有這些都支持我們業務的成長。此外，我們仍然專注於最大限度地提高所有業務部門的營運和財務績效。憑藉投資等級資產負債表、充足的流動性和嚴格的資本配置策略，我們有能力為股東創造長期價值。

I will now turn it over to Wayne to discuss our third quarter results and our outlook.

我現在將把它交給韋恩討論我們的第三季業績和前景。

Thank you, Eric. Starting with Page 4 of the slides. Total adjusted EBITDDA was $46 million for the third quarter compared to $103 million in the second quarter. The 34,000-acre sale to FIA for 4-year-old average age Southern Timberland completed in the second quarter drove the quarter-over-quarter decline in EBITDDA. We'll now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our third quarter results.

謝謝你，埃里克。從投影片的第 4 頁開始。第三季調整後 EBITDDA 總額為 4,600 萬美元，而第二季為 1.03 億美元。第二季向 FIA 出售平均樹齡為 4 年的 Southern Timberland 34,000 英畝土地，導致 EBITDDA 環比下降。我們現在將審查我們的每個營運部門，並為我們的第三季業績提供更多資訊。

Information for our Timberlands segment is displayed on Slides 5 through 7. The segment contributed $36 million in EBITDDA to our third quarter results, which is slightly higher compared to the second quarter. Our harvest volume in Idaho was 427,000 tons in the third quarter. This volume is seasonally higher than the 365,000 tons we harvested in the second quarter.

我們的 Timberlands 部門的資訊顯示在幻燈片 5 至 7 中。該部門為我們第三季業績貢獻了 3,600 萬美元的 EBITDDA，略高於第二季。第三季我們在愛達荷州的收穫量為 427,000 噸。這一產量季節性高於我們第二季收穫的 365,000 噸。

Our Idaho sawlog prices were 3% lower on a per ton basis in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Higher cedar sawlog prices partially offset the negative effects of price resets on indexed sawlog volume. Index prices were at their lowest point this year during the third quarter.

與第二季相比，第三季我們的愛達荷州鋸木價格每噸下降了 3%。雪松鋸木價格上漲部分抵消了價格重置對指數鋸木量的負面影響。第三季指數價格處於今年以來的最低點。

Turning to the South. We harvested 1.5 million tons in the third quarter, which is consistent with our harvest volume in the second quarter. Our Southern pine sawlog prices were generally stable during the third quarter. Southern pine sawlog prices moderated slightly lower in the third quarter due to a seasonal increase in log supply and lumber demand dynamics. This decline was offset by a higher seasonal mix hardwood sawlog volumes and increased pricing.

轉向南方。第三季我們收穫了150萬噸，與第二季的收穫量一致。第三季我們的南方松鋸木價格整體穩定。由於原木供應季節性增加和木材需求動態，第三季南方松鋸材價格略有下降。這一下降被季節性混合硬木鋸材銷量增加和價格上漲所抵消。

Moving to Wood Products on Slides 8 and 9. Adjusted EBITDDA loss widened from $7 million in the second quarter to $10 million in the third quarter. The decline was driven by lower average lumber prices led by softness in Southern Yellow Pine.

轉到幻燈片 8 和 9 上的木製品。調整後的 EBITDDA 虧損從第二季的 700 萬美元擴大到第三季的 1,000 萬美元。下降的原因是南方黃鬆的疲軟導致平均木​​材價格下降。

Also, as we anticipated, unit manufacturing costs increased due to planned downtime and the restart of the Waldo, Arkansas sawmill for the expansion and modernization project. Our average lumber price realization decreased 5% from $423 per thousand board feet in the second quarter to $402 per thousand board feet in the third quarter. By comparison, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite price was approximately 1% lower in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

此外，正如我們預期的那樣，由於計劃停工以及阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠擴建和現代化項目的重啟，單位製造成本有所增加。我們的平均木材價格實現下降了 5%，從第二季的每千板英尺 423 美元下降到第三季的每千板英尺 402 美元。相比之下，第三季隨機長度框架木材複合材料的價格比第二季低約 1%。

Note, that our regional mix and product mix is not the same as the composite. There is also a timing difference between our sales and the composite.

請注意，我們的區域組合和產品組合與複合材料不同。我們的銷售和綜合數據之間也存在時間差異。

Lumber shipments decreased by 19 million board feet from 286 million board feet in the second quarter, 267 million board feet in the third quarter. The decline in shipment volume was due to reduced production associated with the planned Waldo sawmill outage and subsequent ramp-up.

木材出貨量較第二季的 2.86 億板英尺減少了 1,900 萬板英尺，第三季為 2.67 億板英尺。出貨量下降是由於 Waldo 鋸木廠計劃停產和隨後的產能增加導致產量減少。

Shifting to Real Estate on Slides 10 and 11. The segment's adjusted EBITDDA was $32 million in the third quarter compared to $90 million in the second quarter. EBITDDA generated by rural sales was lower in the third quarter as the second quarter included the 34,000-acre Southern land transaction for $57 million. We continue to see strong demand for rural land as reflected in our third quarter performance by selling over 6,500 acres for an average of $3,700 per acre.

在投影片 10 和 11 轉向房地產。第三季該部門調整後的 EBITDDA 為 3,200 萬美元，而第二季為 9,000 萬美元。第三季農村銷售產生的 EBITDDA 較低，因為第二季包括 34,000 英畝的南部土地交易，價格為 5,700 萬美元。我們繼續看到對農村土地的強勁需求，這反映在我們第三季的業績中，以平均每英畝 3,700 美元的價格出售了 6,500 英畝土地。

EBITDDA from our Real Estate development business increased in the third quarter compared to the second quarter driven by higher residential lot sales at our Chenal Valley master-planned community. In the third quarter, we closed on the sale of 53 residential lots at a higher average price due to a greater mix of premium lots.

與第二季相比，我們的房地產開發業務的 EBITDDA 在第三季有所成長，這是由於我們的 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區的住宅地塊銷售增加所致。第三季度，由於優質地塊的數量增多，我們以較高的平均價格出售了 53 塊住宅地塊。

Unlike the second quarter, where we recorded $6 million in commercial revenue, there were no commercial land sales in the third quarter. Commercial land sales typically take longer to materialize due to the complexity of commercial real estate and third-party financing structures usually involved.

與第二季我們錄得 600 萬美元商業收入不同，第三季沒有商業土地銷售。由於商業房地產和通常涉及的第三方融資結構的複雜性，商業土地銷售通常需要更長的時間才能實現。

Turning to capital structure, which is summarized on Slide 12. Our total liquidity was $460 million. This amount includes $161 million of cash on our balance sheet as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. We repurchased 57,000 shares at $42 per share for a total of over $2 million in the third quarter. We have $98 million remaining on our $200 million repurchase authorization.

轉向資本結構，投影片 12 對此進行了總結。我們的總流動資金為 4.6 億美元。該金額包括我們資產負債表上的 1.61 億美元現金以及我們未提取的左輪手槍的可用資金。第三季度，我們以每股 42 美元的價格回購了 57,000 股股票，總金額超過 200 萬美元。我們的 2 億美元回購授權還剩 9,800 萬美元。

As you're aware, we have $176 million of debt maturing in the fourth quarter, which we intend to refinance. We recently finalized discussions with our lenders and in conjunction with the refinance, we are utilizing $125 million of our existing notional forward-starting interest rate swaps to reduce our borrowing rate below current market rates.

如您所知，我們有 1.76 億美元的債務將在第四季度到期，我們打算對其進行再融資。我們最近完成了與貸方的討論，結合再融資，我們將利用現有名目遠期利率互換中的 1.25 億美元將我們的借款利率降低到當前市場利率以下。

This strategy allows us to reduce our existing annual interest cost by about $150,000 and maintain our total weighted average cost of debt at approximately 2.3% despite the current higher interest rate environment. Post refinance, we will still have $75 million of notional forward-starting interest rate swaps available for future debt refinancing, which will allow us to maintain a lower cost of borrowing.

儘管當前利率環境較高，這項策略使我們能夠將現有的年度利息成本降低約 15 萬美元，並將總加權平均債務成本維持在約 2.3%。再融資後，我們仍將有 7,500 萬美元的名目遠期利率互換可用於未來的債務再融資，這將使我們能夠保持較低的借貸成本。

Capital expenditures were $35 million in the third quarter. That amount includes real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement. Our full year capital expenditures are projected to range from $100 million to $110 million, excluding any possible timberland acquisitions.

第三季資本支出為 3500 萬美元。該金額包括房地產開發支出，這些支出包含在我們現金流量表中的營運現金中。我們全年的資本支出預計在 1 億至 1.1 億美元之間，不包括任何可能的林地收購。

This estimate includes approximately $44 million for the final installments on the modernization and expansion project at the Waldo, Arkansas sawmill, with about $7 million remaining spent this year. We expect that our annual CapEx will increase -- will significantly decrease and return to a more normalized level next year because we do not plan to undertake any major projects comparable with Waldo initiative next year.

這項估計包括阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠現代化和擴建項目最後分期付款的約 4,400 萬美元，今年剩餘支出約 700 萬美元。我們預計我們的年度資本支出將會增加，明年將顯著減少並恢復到更正常的水平，因為我們明年不打算開展任何與 Waldo 計劃類似的重大項目。

I will now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on Slide 13.

我現在將提供一些高層展望評論。詳細資訊請參閱投影片 13。

We expect to harvest 1.8 million to 1.9 million tons in our Timberlands segment in the fourth quarter, with approximately 80% of the volume in the South. Harvest volumes in the North are expected to decrease in the fourth quarter following seasonal peak harvest volumes in the third quarter.

我們預計第四季 Timberlands 部門的產量將達到 180 萬噸至 190 萬噸，其中約 80% 的產量來自南方。繼第三季季節性高峰收穫量之後，預計第四季北方的收穫量將減少。

We anticipate Northern sawlog prices will increase 2% to 3% in the fourth quarter, reflecting slightly higher index sawlog prices. For the South, we expect our Southern sawlog pricing to moderate slightly in the fourth quarter as we expect to have a lower seasonal mix of hardwood volumes.

我們預計第四季度北方鋸木價格將上漲 2% 至 3%，反映出指數鋸木價格略有上漲。對於南方，我們預計第四季度南方鋸木價格將略有放緩，因為我們預計硬木產量的季節性組合會有所下降。

We plan to ship between 275 million to 285 million board feet of lumber in the fourth quarter. This forecasted shipment volume reflects a higher production level compared to the third quarter due to the ongoing ramp-up at our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill. Additionally, we anticipate lower unit manufacturing and log costs as a result of the expected increase in production.

我們計劃在第四季運送 2.75 億至 2.85 億板英尺的木材。由於我們阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠的持續成長，預計出貨量反映了與第三季相比更高的產量水準。此外，由於產量預期增加，我們預期單位製造和原木成本將會降低。

Our average lumber price thus far in the fourth quarter is $33 per thousand board feet or 8% higher compared to our third quarter average lumber price. This is based on approximately 100 million board feet of lumber. As a reminder, a $10 per thousand board feet change in lumber price equals approximately $12 million of consolidated EBITDDA for us on an annual basis.

迄今為止，我們第四季的平均木材價格為每千板英尺 33 美元，比第三季的平均木材價格高出 8%。這是基於大約 1 億板英尺的木材。需要提醒的是，木材價格每千板英尺變化 10 美元，相當於我們每年約 1200 萬美元的綜合 EBITDDA。

Shifting to Real Estate. We expect to sell approximately 5,500 acres of rural land in the fourth quarter for over $2,900 per acre. For real estate development, we expect to sell approximately 40 Chenal Valley residential lots in the fourth quarter. Additional real estate details are provided on the slide.

轉向房地產。我們預計第四季將以每英畝 2,900 美元以上的價格出售約 5,500 英畝農村土地。對於房地產開發，我們預計第四季將出售約 40 個 Chenal Valley 住宅用地。幻燈片上提供了更多房地產詳細資訊。

Overall, we estimate our fourth quarter total adjusted EBITDDA to be relatively comparable to our third quarter results. This forecast anticipates higher lumber prices and improved cost recovery in our Wood Products business, balanced by a seasonal decline in harvest volumes and a lower level of rural land and real estate development activity.

整體而言，我們估計第四季度調整後 EBITDDA 總額與第三季業績相當。該預測預計我們的木製品業務的木材價格將上漲，成本回收將得到改善，但採伐量的季節性下降以及農村土地和房地產開發活動的水平較低，將得到平衡。

That concludes our prepared remarks. John, I would now like to open the call to questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。約翰，我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

（操作員指示）Anthony Pettinari，花旗銀行。

I was wondering, kind of we've seen a recent uptick in lumber. And do you see that as maybe more supply-driven as some of these curtailments impact the market? Or are you seeing pockets of improved demand?

我想知道，我們最近看到木材價格上漲。您是否認為，隨著其中一些限產措施對市場的影響，這可能更多是由供應驅動的？或者您看到需求有所改善？

And then in terms of curtailments, is there kind of a new level or average cost support for maybe a high-cost producer, a Canadian producer? Any kind of like new post-pandemic level that you think these guys are generating cash at?

那麼就削減而言，是否有可能為高成本生產商（加拿大生產商）提供新的水平或平均成本支持？您認為這些人在疫情後的新水準上創造了現金嗎？

Yeah, Anthony, this is Eric. I do think the recent uptick in lumber prices is largely supply-driven. We've seen something like 4 billion to 5 billion of capacity come out of the market here this year and last year or even more.

是的，安東尼，這是艾瑞克。我確實認為最近木材價格的上漲很大程度上是供應驅動的。我們已經看到今年和去年甚至更多的產能退出市場。

We also had those hurricanes come through the South that took out some production. So I think people looked at it and said, the industry is losing money. This is obviously not sustainable. Lumber prices really can't go lower. They can only go higher. And so people stepped in to buy and you saw the duties go up from 8% to 14% in August. I think that probably helped support lumber prices as well.

我們也遭遇了來自南方的颶風，導致一些生產受到影響。所以我認為人們看到後會說，這個行業正在賠錢。這顯然是不可持續的。木材價格確實不能再低了。他們只能走得更高。於是人們開始購買，你會看到 8 月關稅從 8% 上升到 14%。我認為這也可能有助於支撐木材價格。

And then finally, we saw the Fed finally pull the trigger and make some interest rate cuts. And so while I don't know that there's been a real step change in demand just yet, I think people are looking at it saying, okay, the Fed has now embarked on this rate cutting cycle, and that's going to have effects across all the different demand segments for lumber, whether it's single-family or multifamily or large R&R.

最後，我們看到聯準會最終扣動扳機並進行了一些降息。因此，雖然我不知道需求是否發生了真正的階梯變化，但我認為人們會說，好吧，美聯儲現在已經開始了這個降息週期，這將對所有領域產生影響。無論是單戶住宅、多戶住宅或大型R&R。

So while right now, I think the immediate price response is largely supply-driven, I think people are looking at it saying, huh, demand ought to be forthcoming here in the not-too-distant future.

因此，雖然現在，我認為直接的價格反應很大程度上是由供應驅動的，但我認為人們在看待它時會說，嗯，在不久的將來，需求應該會出現。

Yeah, now regarding the -- your second question regarding, is there some new price floor? The one thing I will say is if you look up to British Columbia, I think the median mill up there today, breakeven is around $400. So that's the median mill.

是的，現在關於你的第二個問題，是否有新的價格下限？我要說的一件事是，如果你看看不列顛哥倫比亞省，我認為今天那裡的工廠中位數，盈虧平衡點約為 400 美元。這就是中值磨坊。

So half are making more money and -- half are making money and half are losing money. But if you think about -- so that's a $400 number, which is, I think, about where SBF is trading today. If you think about what's going to happen when we get out to the fall of 2025, you're going to see that duty, it's going to kick up anywhere from, I don't know, 25% to 35%.

所以一半人賺更多的錢，一半人賺錢，一半人賠錢。但如果你想一想，這就是 400 美元的數字，我認為這就是 SBF 今天的交易價格。如果你考慮到 2025 年秋天會發生什麼，你會看到這項義務，我不知道，它會增加 25% 到 35%。

All of a sudden, breakevens are going to move up, who knows, $100. And I kind of think of BC as a marginal cost producer right now for North America, given the relatively high cost structure. So I think that floor, that it is moving higher, especially as we get out to next year. Does that answer your question?

突然之間，損益平衡點就會上升，誰知道呢，會上升 100 美元。鑑於相對較高的成本結構，我認為 BC 目前是北美的邊際成本生產者。所以我認為這個樓層正在走高，特別是當我們進入明年時。這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yeah. No, that's super, super helpful. And then maybe just switching gears. If I look at your Southern sawlog price per ton, I mean, it's been pretty flattish since, I don't know, 2019, before the pandemic. But at the same time, I mean, general inflation in the economy is maybe up 20%, maybe 25%. I'm just wondering if you could talk about the ability of Southern log prices to kind of at least match inflation.

是的。不，這非常非常有幫助。然後也許只是切換齒輪。如果我看一下南方鋸材每噸的價格，我的意思是，自 2019 年大流行之前以來，我不知道價格一直相當平穩。但同時，我的意思是，經濟的整體通膨率可能上升 20%，也可能上升 25%。我只是想知道您是否可以談談南方原木價格至少與通貨膨脹相匹配的能力。

Is there a level of starts or inventory drawdown that would, you think, could catalyze price improvement in the South? Or is that maybe not the right way to think about it? Or just not quarter-to-quarter, but just as we think about '25, '26, like what's your outlook? And how should we think about Southern sawlog prices?

您認為開工率或庫存下降是否能促進南方地區的價格上漲？或者這也許不是正確的思考方式？或者只是不是按季度計算，而是就像我們思考「25」、「26」一樣，您的前景如何？我們該如何看待南方鋸材價格？

Yeah, Anthony, this is Wayne. Ultimately, it really comes down to where lumber markets are headed. Certainly, we're more optimistic about 2025. And we think as those markets improve, log prices will follow. In the South, we would expect log markets to improve across the board. I mean, it certainly depends from wood basket to wood basket and what those tension markets are like.

是的，安東尼，這是韋恩。最終，這實際上取決於木材市場的走向。當然，我們對 2025 年更加樂觀。我們認為，隨著這些市場的改善，原木價格也會跟著上漲。在南方，我們預期原木市場將全面改善。我的意思是，這當然取決於不同的木籃以及那些緊張的市場是什麼樣的。

But when we think about our business and looking at our different regions in the South, we would expect -- and we've seen this in the past, that as pricing goes up, there's more tension in the markets, more production on the lumber side. I think our Southeast region, that's where we would see more price increase on the log side, accelerate versus not as much in our [Gulf South] because we've just historically seen that because of where tension markets are at.

但是，當我們考慮我們的業務並考慮南方的不同地區時，我們預計 - 我們過去已經看到過這一點，隨著價格上漲，市場更加緊張，木材產量增加邊。我認為我們的東南地區，我們會看到原木價格上漲更多，而我們的[海灣南部]則沒有那麼快，因為我​​們在歷史上看到過這種情況，因為市場處於緊張狀態。

And we saw that dropoff happen a little more rapidly in the Southeast. So we would expect it to ramp up prices improve more in the Southeast as markets become more tensioned. So that when we look forward, I think that's what we're expecting is with an optimistic outlook in 2025.

我們發現東南部的下降速度更快一些。因此，隨著市場變得更加緊張，我們預計東南部的價格會進一步提高。因此，當我們展望未來時，我認為這就是我們對 2025 年前景的樂觀預期。

Okay, that's super helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO。

Wayne. A quick clarification on that Northern sawlog pricing, you said up, I think, 2% to 3%. But as I recall, there is also a negative density component in Q4 to the tune of about mid-single digits. So your 2% to 3% net, is it net up or is it sort of before taking into account the density component?

韋恩。快速澄清一下北方鋸木的定價，我認為你說上漲了 2% 到 3%。但據我記得，第四季也存在著大約中個位數的負密度成分。那麼你的 2% 到 3% 的淨值是淨值還是在考慮密度成分之前？

Ketan, it's on a net basis. So you are correct, there is a density factor and that's netted. So that 2% to 3% includes that seasonally heavier log. So we have -- we're thinking indexing and mixed sawlog prices will be up over the quarter, and that will be offset slightly by seasonal heavier logs that density factor.

Ketan，這是基於淨值的。所以你是對的，有一個密度因素，這是網狀的。因此，2% 到 3% 包括季節性較重的原木。因此，我們認為指數化和混合鋸木價格將在本季度上漲，這將被季節性較重原木的密度因素略微抵消。

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And then on NCS, I'm curious, Eric, how do you think about sort of the time line on some of these option contracts becoming kind of finalized? And when do you expect these to start to show up in P&L? And are you seeing any sort of change, given that we are in a wait-and-watch mode with the elections? Any change in sort of approach from some of your potential customers on solar?

知道了。好的，這很有幫助。然後，關於 NCS，我很好奇，Eric，您如何看待其中一些選擇權合約最終確定的時間線？您預計這些何時開始出現在損益表中？鑑於我們對選舉處於觀望狀態，您是否看到任何變化？您的一些潛在客戶對太陽能的態度有什麼改變嗎？

Yeah. Ketan, I'm more bullish than ever on solar going forward, and it starts with everybody's trying to get to net zero around the world. And certainly, solar is a great way to generate energy if you're trying to get to net zero.

是的。Ketan，我比以往任何時候都更加看好太陽能的發展，而這一切始於世界各地每個人都在努力實現淨零排放。當然，如果您想實現淨零排放，太陽能是一種很好的發電方式。

So I think there's no stopping solar. We are seeing incredibly strong demand for solar options. We're going to be taking a look at our land holdings again. I think we've talked about we thought our potential was 60,000 acres in total. We think that may be higher so we're going to undertake another study here.

所以我認為太陽能是無法阻擋的。我們看到對太陽能選項的需求異常強勁。我們將再次審視我們的土地持有情況。我想我們已經討論過我們認為我們的潛力總共是 60,000 英畝。我們認為這個數字可能更高，因此我們將在這裡進行另一項研究。

When is it going to start hitting our P&L? It's not really going to happen next year because what happened is there's been a rush of options that got executed and well, really this past year and perhaps 2023. Most of those option agreements have got anywhere from three to five year periods on them.

它什麼時候開始影響我們的損益？這實際上不會在明年發生，因為發生的情況是，有大量的選擇被執行，嗯，實際上是在過去的一年，也許是 2023 年。大多數選擇權協議的有效期為三到五年。

And so when you think about something that got executed in '23 and it's got a five-year life on the option, that means that the developers got until 2028, to pull the trigger and execute the option. Now they're not all out that far. Some can get executed in 2027, some can get executed in 2026.

因此，當你想到 23 年執行的某些專案並且該選項的有效期為五年時，這意味著開發人員可以在 2028 年之前扣動扳機並執行該選項。現在他們還沒有全部出局。有些可以在 2027 年執行，有些可以在 2026 年執行。

There's a chance one or two trickle in next year. But really, it's going to start hitting the P&L in 2026. And I know that historically, the cancellation rate on these options or the execution of these options is in the, I don't know, 30% to 40% kind of range is kind of what the industry parlance is.

明年有可能會出現一兩次。但實際上，它將在 2026 年開始影響損益表。我知道，從歷史上看，這些選擇權的取消率或這些選擇權的執行率在（我不知道）30% 到 40% 的範圍內，這就是該行業的說法。

But I think given where we're at today, that is a really low number compared to what I would expect. I think it could be 75% likelihood of those options getting exercised just because the counterparties that we're dealing with are some of the largest companies in the world, coupled with this trend towards renewable energy, I just think there's no stopping it.

但我認為，考慮到我們今天的處境，與我的預期相比，這個數字確實很低。我認為這些選擇權被行使的可能性有 75%，因為我們正在處理的交易對手是世界上最大的一些公司，再加上再生能源的趨勢，我只是認為這是無法阻止的。

We've had one cancellation here recently, actually hasn't even canceled yet. I think we're in discussions. And ironically, the reason it may be canceled is because the developer wants to put more acreage onto the existing contract, not because they don't like the project that we're looking at.

最近我們這裡取消了一次，實際上還沒有取消。我想我們正在討論。諷刺的是，它可能被取消的原因是開發商希望在現有合約上投入更多面積，而不是因為他們不喜歡我們正在考慮的項目。

So yeah, I'm really optimistic on solar. It's not going to happen in a big way in '25, but it's really going to start hitting in '26 and then '27.

所以，是的，我對太陽能非常樂觀。這不會在 25 年大規模發生，但它確實會在 26 年和 27 年開始出現。

Understood, that's helpful. And then just one last one from me. Can you talk about sort of what you are seeing so far as timberland deal activity is concerned, what the appetite's like right now?

明白了，很有幫助。然後是我的最後一張。您能談談您所看到的林地交易活動嗎？

Well, yeah, the timberland M&A market is really paused here. There's virtually no high-quality properties that are available. Several low-quality deals have kind of resulted in kind of busted deals, if you will. And I think market activity is sluggish here. We're in a kind of an uneconomic -- uncertain economic environment.

嗯，是的，Timberland 併購市場確實在這裡暫停了。幾乎沒有可用的高品質房產。如果你願意的話，一些低品質的交易會導致交易失敗。我認為這裡的市場活動低迷。我們正處於一個不經濟、不確定的經濟環境。

You've got these higher rates. You've got people potentially waiting for NCS opportunities, sellers waiting for NCS opportunities to materialize. Everybody knows lumber prices have been in the doldrums. So sellers are not really excited about bringing properties to market.

你已經得到了這些更高的利率。有人可能在等待 NCS 機會，而賣家則在等待 NCS 機會的實現。眾所周知，木材價格一直低迷。因此，賣家對於將房產推向市場並不感到興奮。

But I do think on the buy side, there's plenty of capital out there looking to buy timberland, whether it's a new investor that's come into the asset class, interested in nature and biodiversity or carbon, or it could be a new investor that's interested in timberland purely from a carbon credit standpoint.

但我確實認為在買方方面，有大量資本正在尋求購買林地，無論是進入該資產類別、對自然和生物多樣性或碳感興趣的新投資者，還是對以下領域感興趣的新投資者：純粹從碳信用的角度來看。

So I think there's no shortage of demand for quality timberland. It's really, more than anything, reluctance of buyers to bring quality properties to market.

所以我認為對優質林地的需求並不缺乏。事實上，最重要的是，買家不願意將優質房產推向市場。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Wayne, can you go through maybe with a bit more detail, to the extent possible, what you think your manufacturing costs within Wood Products might look like into fourth quarter and into 1Q with the Waldo ramp-up both in place but also now winding down and getting into more of an operational mode there?

韋恩，您能否盡可能詳細地介紹一下您認為第四季度和第一季木製品領域的製造成本可能會是什麼樣子，沃爾多的產能增加到位，但現在也逐漸減少並在那裡進入更多的營運模式？

The question behind the question, given where prices are right now and with maybe some puts and takes on manufacturing, could we see maybe a breakeven in EBITDDA for the Wood Products segment in the fourth quarter?

這個問題背後的問題是，考慮到目前的價格水平以及製造業的一些看跌期權和承擔，我們能否看到第四季度木製品部門的 EBITDDA 實現盈虧平衡？

Well, I -- we're halfway through the fourth quarter at this point, George. And I would tell you our mills are going to be, I would guess, they're going to be profitable in the fourth quarter. I'm feeling really good about the turn that we've seen in prices.

好吧，喬治，第四節此時已經過了一半。我想告訴你，我們的工廠將在第四季度實現盈利。我對價格的轉變感覺非常好。

We had to eat some start-up costs at the Waldo mill in Q3. Thankfully, that is behind us. So we will see a sizable drop in per thousand processing costs as we move out into Q4.

第三季度，我們不得不承擔 Waldo 工廠的一些啟動成本。值得慶幸的是，這一切都在我們身後。因此，隨著進入第四季度，我們將看到每千人的處理成本大幅下降。

And frankly, I think we're setting up for a good 2025. The market, our stock and our peers are selling off this morning because the tenure is trickling up again. But I look collectively at what's going on with supply and demand, and I'm pretty bullish on next year and even more bullish on '26.

坦白說，我認為我們正在為美好的 2025 年做好準備。今天早上，市場、我們的股票和我們的同業都在拋售，因為任期再次增加。但我從整體來看供應和需求的情況，我非常看好明年，更看好 26 年。

But yeah, getting back to your question, we will see a sizable drop in processing costs as we work our way through Q4 and then as we get into next year.

但是，是的，回到你的問題，隨著我們第四季度的努力以及進入明年，我們將看到處理成本大幅下降。

Eric, you've given us a lot of detail there already, but is there a way to maybe size that? And if you want to punt on that, we totally understand the figure, maybe try one more time if there's a way to maybe dimensionalize that.

艾瑞克，你已經給了我們很多細節，但有沒有辦法調整它的大小？如果你想押注這一點，我們完全理解這個數字，如果有一種方法可以將其維度化，也許可以再嘗試一次。

Dimensionalize?

維度化？

The drop in processing costs sequentially or over the next couple of quarters.

處理成本連續下降或在接下來的幾個季度內下降。

Yeah. I mean, I will just -- I'll tell you that all -- across our entire lumber segment, processing costs are going to drop. Now this is -- remember, this is a rough Q3 for Waldo so processing costs there were very high. But it's going to drop from $185 a thousand down to $151 a thousand.

是的。我的意思是，我會告訴你，在我們整個木材領域，加工成本將會下降。現在，請記住，這對 Waldo 來說是一個艱難的第三季度，因此處理成本非常高。但將從每千美元 185 美元降至每千美元 151 美元。

Okay, appreciate that. And then a question for you on salvage activity. What is that going to mean in terms of results, both in terms of tonnage and P&L over the next quarter or two? How should we phase that in and how long will salvage activity take into 2025?

好的，謝謝。然後問你一個關於救助活動的問題。這對未來一兩個季度的噸位和損益方面的結果意味著什麼？我們應該如何分階段進行？

Yeah. For us, directly, it's really going to have a minimal impact. Like we've said in the prepared remarks, we've already commenced salvage operations. I think based on downed timber, we estimate that activity to take maybe six months or so. But overall, we think that will be directly a minimal impact to us.

是的。對我們來說，直接影響確實很小。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們已經開始打撈行動。我認為根據倒下的木材，我們估計該活動可能需要六個月左右的時間。但總的來說，我們認為這對我們的直接影響很小。

Now look, we don't have direct line of sight into how much salvage activity is out there across the region. But intuitively, we would anticipate that there would be more volume of pulpwood coming on the market, so that could have some downward pressure on pulp prices in the very near term.

現在看，我們無法直接了解該地區有多少救援活動。但直覺上，我們預期市場上將會有更多的紙漿木材，因此短期內可能會對紙漿價格造成一定的下行壓力。

Now, what I would say though is on the flip side, you only have so much log and haul capacity. So if there's a lot of capacity shifting to pulp, then you may not be getting as much sawlog capacity. And with that, we think that may also push sawlog pricing up slightly just kind of that shift, but we'll see what happens.

現在，我想說的是，另一方面，你只有這麼多的原木和運輸能力。因此，如果有大量產能轉向製漿，那麼您可能無法獲得那麼多鋸材產能。因此，我們認為這也可能會推動鋸木價格略微上漲，就像這種轉變一樣，但我們會看看會發生什麼。

George, when you step back and you think about it, we're talking about 100,000 tons here across our 7-point, whatever, 6 million-ton harvest profile per year. And 50% of that 100,000 tons is going to happen in Q4 and then 50,000 tons is going to happen in Q1. So in the grand scheme of things, it's virtually no impact, financial impact, not that important.

喬治，當你退後一步想一想時，我們談論的是 7 點的 10 萬噸，無論如何，每年 600 萬噸的收穫量。這 10 萬噸的 50% 將在第四季度發生，然後 5 萬噸將在第一季發生。因此，從總體上看，這幾乎沒有影響，財務影響並不那麼重要。

I appreciate that. Last question for me and I'll turn it over. Are you seeing any kind of change in supply trade flow on lumber markets into the US from Europe elsewhere? How are you seeing that impact the market at this juncture? You've already talked about Canada, obviously, over time, maybe seeing some trade flow slowing because of duties. But what are you seeing out of Europe?

我很欣賞這一點。最後一個問題給我，我會把它轉過來。您是否看到木材市場上從歐洲其他地方流入美國的供應貿易流量有任何變化？您認為此時此刻這對市場有何影響？您已經談到了加拿大，顯然，隨著時間的推移，可能會看到一些貿易流量因關稅而放緩。但您從歐洲看到了什麼？

Yeah. So I can only tell you, George, what I hear anecdotally, which I look at the numbers and imports from Europe are down about 10% this year. It's logical that imports would slow this year. We've come off those really high prices where we were at in early, what, '23 when imports surged.

是的。所以我只能告訴你，喬治，我聽到的軼事，我看到今年來自歐洲的數字和進口下降了約 10%。今年進口放緩是合乎邏輯的。我們已經擺脫了 23 年初進口激增時的高價格。

So prices have really come way off that the beetle kill timber that was over in Central Europe, most of that salvage activity is now behind us. Europe is starting to cut rates. Construction activity is still slow there from what I hear but it's kind of poised to get better.

因此，價格確實已經大幅下跌，甲蟲殺死中歐木材的情況已經結束，大部分打撈活動現在已經過去了。歐洲開始降息。據我所知，那裡的建築活動仍然緩慢，但有望好轉。

So it's not surprising to me that the Europeans have backed away from the US market. And I think European imports are down like 10% year-over-year. Now I will say going forward, I think the Europeans were smart. They got a toehold in the US market. And if we see prices revert back to really high numbers again, they're going to be able to flip the switch and start exporting more back into the U.S. So they will be a governor going forward on pricing. But for now, I think they backed away and I think prices have -- or import levels have moderated. And I think they're going to stay that way for some time.

因此，歐洲人退出美國市場對我來說並不奇怪。我認為歐洲進口量比去年同期下降了 10%。現在我要說的是，我認為歐洲人很聰明。他們在美國市場站穩了腳步。如果我們看到價格再次恢復到非常高的水平，他們將​​能夠打開開關並開始向美國出口更多產品，因此他們將成為未來定價的管理者。但就目前而言，我認為他們有所退縮，而且我認為價格已經放緩，或者說進口水準已經放緩。我認為這種情況會持續一段時間。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

馬修·麥凱勒，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Just one question for me. You've talked about having some other high-return projects in your Wood Products portfolio, and it certainly seems like we're seeing a bit more support from lumber prices. I think Wayne talked about not pursuing anything on the same scale as Waldo next year.

只是問我一個問題。您談到了您的木製品產品組合中還有一些其他高回報項目，而且我們似乎確實看到了木材價格的更多支持。我認為韋恩談到明年不會追求與沃爾多相同規模的任何事情。

But are you able to share any preliminary thoughts on how you'll approach capital spending in '25 and maybe talk about what your priorities for capital spending will be?

但是您能否分享一下您將如何處理 25 年資本支出的初步想法，或者談談您在資本支出方面的優先事項是什麼？

Yeah, Matthew. Yeah, we're always looking at ways to improve our P&L with the idea that we want a strong return on our invested capital. And you can do that either through large projects like what we did at Waldo, and there may be other potential projects like that, that we have in our mill network.

是的，馬修。是的，我們一直在尋找改善損益的方法，我們希望我們的投資資本能獲得豐厚的回報。您可以透過像我們在 Waldo 所做的那樣的大型專案來做到這一點，而且我們的工廠網路中可能還有其他類似的潛在專案。

Or it can be through replacing discrete pieces of equipment that we have in our mill network that are more efficient. And we haven't gone through our budgeting process yet for '25. So I'm reluctant to really comment on what we have planned for next year. But we've got a couple of things that we're looking at, but it's too early to talk about them.

或者可以透過更換工廠網路中更有效率的離散設備來實現。我們還沒有完成 25 年的預算流程。所以我不願意真正評論我們明年的計劃。但我們正在考慮一些事情，但現在談論它們還為時過早。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

First, apologize a bit of an accounting type question. Just DD&A, obviously, you had the changes at Waldo and the accelerated depreciation going away. As we think about depreciation in the Wood Products segment and maybe for the company as a whole or DD&A, is the third quarter rate the one to use going forward or does that pop up a little bit as Waldo kicks into full operation?

首先，對一個會計類型的問題表示歉意。顯然，只是 DD&A，Waldo 發生了變化，加速折舊也消失了。當我們考慮木製品部門的折舊以及整個公司或 DD&A 的折舊時，第三季的折舊率是未來使用的折舊率還是在 Waldo 全面投入運作時會出現一點？

Yes, Mark, this is Wayne. I think you're referring to, yeah, we had a little bit lower DD&A this quarter and that's a function of -- it is a function of the Waldo sawmill. We had -- back in 2022, when we announced the project, we had started accelerating depreciation on the existing assets that we were replacing, and that was about $3 million a quarter.

是的，馬克，這是韋恩。我想你指的是，是的，本季我們的 DD&A 略有下降，這是 Waldo 鋸木廠的功能。早在 2022 年，當我們宣布該專案時，我們就開始加速我們要更換的現有資產的折舊，每季約為 300 萬美元。

Now that's fully depreciated. And then we'll be -- we've started -- as we put the new assets in service, we started that depreciation. So I would say kind of on a yearly basis, our depreciation will be down about $5 million annually, just with that kind of shift from that acceleration to what we've put on the balance sheet.

現在已經完全折舊了。然後我們將——我們已經開始——當我們將新資產投入使用時，我們就開始折舊。所以我想說，我們的折舊每年將減少約 500 萬美元，只是從加速轉向我們放在資產負債表上的這種轉變。

Okay, that's helpful. And so I mean you're also indicating you're kind of looking for a flattish EBITDDA overall 4Q versus 3Q. And given the guidance you've given us on Timberlands and Real Estate, that does suggest a pretty big pickup in Wood Products.

好的，這很有幫助。所以我的意思是，您還表明您希望第四季度的整體 EBITDDA 與第三季度持平。鑑於您給我們提供的關於 Timberlands 和房地產的指導，這確實表明木製品市場將出現相當大的增長。

And so I'm just curious what type of -- you mentioned you're up $30, I think it was at $33 quarter-to-date. Maybe I'll ask two related questions. One, if lumber prices were to stay where they are today, roughly how high would your 4Q lumber prices be relative to 3Q? And is that basically what you're embedding in your guidance?

所以我只是好奇是什麼類型的——你提到你上漲了 30 美元，我認為本季至今上漲了 33 美元。也許我會問兩個相關的問題。第一，如果木材價格保持在當前水平，那麼第四季度的木材價格相對於第三季度大約會高多少？這基本上就是您在指導中所嵌入的內容嗎？

Yeah. I think, Mark, we -- lumber prices have had a nice run here. We think there's a chance they'd pull back a little bit as we get out into December. Companies especially private ones, will tend to pull down inventories at the end of the year for tax reasons. So there could be a minor pullback in December, but full quarter over full quarter, Q4 versus Q3, I think our lumber prices, we expect (inaudible) at 5% quarter-over-quarter.

是的。我認為，馬克，我們——木材價格在這裡表現良好。我們認為，當我們進入 12 月時，他們有可能會稍微撤退。出於稅收原因，公司，尤其是私人公司，往往會在年底減少庫存。因此，12 月可能會出現小幅回調，但整個季度、第四季與第三季相比，我認為我們的木材價格預計（聽不清楚）環比下降 5%。

4Q over 3Q?

第四季優於第三季？

-- Yeah, 4Q over 3Q.

——是的，第四季超過第三季。

So that would be about $20, which is lower than what you are now?

那麼大約是 20 美元，比你現在的價格低嗎？

Yeah, right.

是的，對。

Okay. I'll circle back. It seems like that's -- you must have your costs coming down an awful lot to then get to flat 4Q over 3Q EBITDDA. But let me circle back. Maybe my math is wrong.

好的。我會繞回來。看來，你的成本必須大幅下降，才能讓第四季的息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDDA) 與第三季持平。但讓我回過頭來。也許我的數學是錯的。

Yes, and that could be a conservative number, too. We've been surprised by the strength in lumber prices. And I talked to the sales department yesterday before this call. And what they're saying is that they're selling stuff above where the Random Lengths print is at right now.

是的，這也可能是個保守的數字。我們對木材價格的強勢感到驚訝。昨天在打電話之前我和銷售部門談過。他們所說的是，他們正在銷售的東西高於現在隨機長度印刷的位置。

Okay, very good. And then in terms of NCS, so obviously, you indicated very excited about solar but mostly show up in '26 and '27. Is there anything really in NCS at all showing up in EBITDDA in '24? And is there anything you're really expecting in '25, recognizing that the big kickup is probably solar into gear in '26?

好的，非常好。然後就 NCS 而言，很明顯，您表示對太陽能非常興奮，但主要出現在 26 和 27 年。NCS 中是否真的有任何東西出現在 24 年的 EBITDDA 中？認識到 26 年可能會出現巨大的成長，您對 25 年有什麼真正的期待嗎？

Well, don't forget, Mark, we're getting option payments as we speak. Once we enter an option agreement with the solar developer, they start paying us for that acreage to be under option. So we're making a couple of million dollars a year off that.

好吧，別忘了，馬克，就在我們說話的時候，我們正在收到期權付款。一旦我們與太陽能開發商簽訂了選擇權協議，他們就開始向我們支付選擇權面積的費用。所以我們每年可以賺幾百萬美元。

We are selling carbon offsets from a carbon project that we put in place down in Arkansas back in, oh my gosh, 2006, something like that. We started selling credits in 2014, I believe it was. These are not significant numbers, but I think we've sold something like $3 million of carbon offsets from that project going back to 2014.

我們正在出售我們在阿肯色州實施的碳項目的碳補償，天哪，2006 年，類似的事情。我相信我們從 2014 年開始銷售積分。這些數字並不重要，但我認為自 2014 年以來，我們已經從該項目中出售了大約 300 萬美元的碳補償。

So yeah, we're getting dribs and drabs of money in NCS today. It's not meaningful amounts of money like we expect it will be. If we enter into a lithium agreement here, we expect to get some payments, option payments along the way.

所以，是的，今天我們在 NCS 得到了一點點的錢。這並不像我們預期的那樣是一筆有意義的錢。如果我們在這裡簽訂鋰協議，我們預計會得到一些付款，即選擇權付款。

And then when those projects are up and running, which will be really a few years, the money will really start to flow. So it's small potatoes today but the potential is there for these income streams to be really quite big.

然後當這些項目啟動並運行時，這將是真正的幾年，資金將真正開始流動。因此，今天雖然還只是小事，但這些收入流的潛力確實相當大。

Understood. And you mentioned carbon credits, you expect to maybe have some more clarity in the next few months. Is that true for lithium as well or can you give us sort of a time line? Or is that not yet really evident?

明白了。您提到了碳信用額，您預計在接下來的幾個月內可能會更加清晰。對於鋰來說也是如此嗎？或者這還不是很明顯嗎？

Yeah, that's a tougher one. We're really highly dependent on the Arkansas, I think, it's Oil and Gas Commission that sets some royalty rate for what lithium brine goes for. There's been a lot of meetings down in Arkansas. The developers have proposed, I think, it's 2% royalty.

是的，這是一個更難的。我認為，我們確實高度依賴阿肯色州，石油和天然氣委員會為鋰鹽水的用途設定了一些特許權使用費。阿肯色州有很多會議。我認為開發商提出了 2% 的特許權使用費。

The landowners, the one that own the mineral rights like us have proposed a 12% royalty. And so this commission is deliberating trying to figure out what the right number should be. So I think there's a little bit of a wait and see here because the range of outcomes are just enormous. But I'm very excited about this opportunity for us going forward. But again, it's going to take a few years before the money really starts to flow.

像我們這樣擁有礦權的土地所有者提出了 12% 的特許權使用費。因此，委員會正在審議，試圖找出正確的數字應該是多少。所以我認為這裡需要等待一段時間，因為結果的範圍是巨大的。但我對我們前進的這個機會感到非常興奮。但同樣，資金真正開始流動還需要幾年的時間。

Understood. And then lastly, you mentioned kind of CapEx would go back to more normal. What would you consider more normal to be? And then relatedly, other capital allocation priorities, if lumber does sort of kick into better gear and you're generating more earnings?

明白了。最後，您提到資本支出將恢復到更正常的狀態。你認為什麼比較正常？然後，與此相關的是，其他資本配置優先事項，如果木材確實進入了更好的狀態並且您產生了更多收入？

I'm assuming share repurchase would be high on the list if the stock is anywhere where it's at, but maybe color and thoughts you might provide along those lines.

我假設，如果股票處於當前的任何位置，股票回購將在列表中名列前茅，但也許您可能會提供類似的顏色和想法。

Yeah. On CapEx, Mark, I mean, we -- our range for this year is $100 million to $110 million. That includes almost $45 million for Waldo. And like we said, we're not taking -- undertaking a project of that nature in the foreseeable future.

是的。在資本支出方面，馬克，我的意思是，我們今年的範圍是 1 億至 1.1 億美元。其中包括沃爾多 (Waldo) 的近 4500 萬美元。正如我們所說，我們不會在可預見的未來開展此類性質的項目。

So yeah. Like Eric said, we're not going to -- we're still going through budgeting process and ultimately, a discussion with the Board on what our capital projects and plan is for next year. So we're really not going to provide any more detailed guidance on that.

所以是的。正如埃里克所說，我們不會——我們仍在進行預算流程，並最終與董事會討論我們明年的資本項目和計劃。所以我們真的不會就此提供任何更詳細的指導。

As far as capital allocation priorities, yeah, certainly, as we've shown, our repurchase of stock is still an attractive option for us. We demonstrated that the last several quarters. It's always a dynamic exercise depending on what opportunities sit in front of us from acquisitions to share repurchases.

就資本配置優先事項而言，是的，當然，正如我們所表明的那樣，股票回購對我們來說仍然是一個有吸引力的選擇。我們在過去幾個季度證明了這一點。這始終是一個動態的過程，取決於我們面前的機會，從收購到股票回購。

We've also -- we mentioned we won't be delevering. With the attractive interest rates, we're able to lock up on our debt refinance. We're refinancing debt. So that really just ultimately comes down to share repurchases, attractive acquisition opportunities. But it really depends on what presents itself as we head into each quarter.

我們也提到我們不會去槓桿化。憑藉有吸引力的利率，我們能夠鎖定我們的債務再融資。我們正在債務再融資。因此，這最終歸結為股票回購和有吸引力的收購機會。但這實際上取決於我們進入每個季度時所呈現的情況。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·羅克克蘭 (Michael Roxland)，Truist 證券公司。

This is Nico Piccini on for Mike Roxland. I guess you mentioned being encouraged by steady interest from these regional builders at Chenal. Just curious on what the split in Chenal is between the smaller regionals and the large nationals.

我是尼可‧皮奇尼 (Nico Piccini) 為麥克‧羅克克蘭 (Mike Roxland) 發言。我猜你有提到過，切納爾的這些區域建築商的穩定興趣讓你受到鼓舞。只是好奇切納爾的小地區和大國家之間的分歧是什麼。

And then likewise, what are you hearing from your builder customers, maybe those buyers regarding sentiment, general sentiment among homebuilders, given we've heard some kind of mixed 3Q earnings from them and then also that mortgage rates have trended higher since really the end of September and despite the rate cut announcement?

同樣，您從建築商客戶那裡聽到了什麼，也許是那些買家關於房屋建築商的情緒、總體情緒，因為我們從他們那裡聽到了某種好壞參半的第三季度收益，而且抵押貸款利率自去年年底以來一直呈走高趨勢九月份儘管宣布降息？

Yeah. Nico, looking at the builder profile in Chenal, it's much different than from a national builder. These are all regional builders. There are no national builders in Chenal. So when we think about these regional builders, they're not kind of well-capitalized or highly capitalized and the ability to offer incentives and other rate buydowns for the ultimate buyers. But as we've -- based on our Q3 results and the outlook at least we've given for Q4, I mean, we're -- we've been very optimistic about how the year will ultimately end.

是的。尼科，看看 Chenal 的建築商資料，它與國家建築商有很大不同。這些都是區域建設者。Chenal 沒有國家建設者。因此，當我們考慮這些區域建築商時，他們的資本並不充足或高度資本化，也沒有能力為最終買家提供激勵措施和其他利率購買。但正如我們——根據我們第三季度的業績和至少我們對第四季度的展望，我的意思是，我們——我們對今年最終將如何結束感到非常樂觀。

We saw take-up across all our product offerings from the more affordable offering to the premium offering. And we think that was certainly stimulated by what the Fed did there in September. And then as we look to Q4, we also saw a better take-up than we expected again across even our more affordable product offering and where we thought, maybe that is where more of the rate-sensitive buyers are. But nonetheless, we were encouraged by what we saw.

我們看到我們所有的產品都被採用，從更實惠的產品到優質的產品。我們認為這肯定是受到聯準會 9 月所做的舉措刺激。然後，當我們展望第四季度時，我們也看到，即使是我們更實惠的產品，我們的使用率也比我們預期的要好，我們認為，也許這就是更多對利率敏感的買家所在的地方。但儘管如此，我們所看到的一切還是讓我們感到鼓舞。

Now that's really our insight [isn't] through the end of the year. We'll see as we head into next year kind of what the sentiment is, but kind of in the shorter-term outlook, that's certainly what we're seeing. And what actions the regional builders have taken.

這確實是我們在年底前的見解。當我們進入明年時，我們會看到這種情緒是什麼，但從短期前景來看，這肯定是我們所看到的。以及區域建設者採取了哪些行動。

At this time, I'm showing there are no more questions. I'll turn the call back over to Wayne Wasechek.

此時，我表明沒有更多問題了。我會將電話轉回 Wayne Wasechek。

Thank you. Thank you for everyone for joining this morning and your continued interest in PotlatchDeltic.

謝謝。感謝大家今天早上的加入以及對 PotlatchDeltic 的持續關注。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。