Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Yes, yes, good morning.

是的，是的，早安。

My name is Ralph, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic Fourth Quarter 2023 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the star one again, thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne waste, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks, you may proceed.

我叫拉爾夫，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 PotlatchDeltic 2023 年第四季電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。演講者發言後，將進行問答環節。如果您想在此期間提出問題，只需按電話鍵盤上的數字 1 即可。如果您想撤回您的問題，請再次按星號一，謝謝。我現在請副總裁兼財務長韋恩韋斯特先生致開幕詞，您可以繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Potlatch Deltic's Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic President and Chief Executive Officer. This call will contain forward looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements.

早安，歡迎參加 Potlatch Deltic 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的是 PotlatchDeltic 總裁兼執行長 Eric Cremers。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們新聞稿中的簡報幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中關於與這些前瞻性聲明相關的風險的警告聲明。

Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found on our website, www.potlatchdeltic.com. I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our fourth quarter results and our 2024 outlook for.

另請注意，非 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表可在我們的網站 www.potlatchdeltic.com 上找到。我會將電話轉給 Eric，徵求一些意見，然後我將回顧我們第四季的業績和 2024 年的前景。

Thank you, Wayne. Good morning, everyone. We reported total adjusted EBITDA of 200 million for 2023 after the market closed yesterday. That is our fifth highest level of annual EBITDA on record since electing reached status in 2006. We accomplished this despite a relatively weak lumber pricing environment, which reflects our strength as a company created to our past accretive acquisitions and ability to identify and monetize rural acres that have a significant premium to timberland values.

謝謝你，韋恩。大家，早安。昨天收盤後，我們報告 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 總額為 2 億美元。這是我們自 2006 年當選以來有記錄以來第五高的年度 EBITDA 水準。儘管木材定價環境相對疲軟，但我們還是實現了這一目標，這反映了我們作為一家公司的實力，這些公司是在過去的增值收購基礎上創建的，以及識別和貨幣化與林地價值相比具有顯著溢價的農村土地的能力。

Our Timberlands segment generated adjusted EBITDA of 151 million. In 2023, we harvested 7.7 million tons, which is a record annual harvest volume. This volume also reflects our first full year of operations with our CatchMark Timber lands that we acquired in September 2022.

我們的 Timberlands 部門調整後 EBITDA 為 1.51 億美元。2023年，我們收穫了770萬噸，這是創紀錄的年收穫量。這一數量也反映了我們在 2022 年 9 月收購的 CatchMark 木材土地的第一個全年營運。

Speaking of CatchMark, one of our operational highlights was the completion of the process of in-sourcing the management of CatchMark's timberlands earlier in 2023, enabling us to realize the final piece in our $21 million of annual cash synergies from the merger. Our Wood Products segment contributed 20 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2023. We shipped just over 1.1 billion board feet of lumber, which established a new record for the Company in annual shipment volume. Our Wood Products team had another strong year in terms of safety performance and successfully completed its capital project plan for the year. And speaking of our capital plan. We continue to remain on track with our $131 million project to modernize and expand our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill site preparation and civil work is well underway with the first phase of equipment installation scheduled to commence later in Q1. Project will increase the mill's annual capacity by 85 million board feet and significantly reduce cash processing costs. The existing mill will continue to operate during the project with approximately three weeks of downtime expected in the mid part of the year to tie in the new equipment followed by the anticipated completion of the project well before the end of 2024, our real estate segment had a strong year, contributing adjusted EBITDA of $68 million on the rural side of the business, we sold 18,000 acres at nearly $3,100 an acre. Our real estate team had a strong finish to 2023 by taking advantage of our in-depth stratification of CatchMark's timberlands earlier in the year. For 2023, nearly half of our rural business performance was attributable to the acquired CatchMark portfolio which is located in excellent real estate markets. Our real estate development business sold 128 residential lots in the small Valley master-planned community at an average price of $104,000 per lot in 2023. We also closed on multiple commercial sales, resulting in over $7 million in revenue at an average price of nearly $575,000 per acre. We had good absorption on our residential lot offerings for much of the year, but we have started to see modest signs of slowing in the take-up of our lot offerings by regional builders in Chenal Valley in the fourth quarter, our team also made good progress on natural climate solutions opportunities this year we are working through the final stages of the certification process on our nearly 50,000 acre southern timberland carbon credit project. We expect to begin premarketing efforts in the coming months with placement and sale of the credits in the marketplace. The second half of the year regarding solar developers have shown strong interest in solar opportunities, and we have continued to add to our inventory of solar options under contract, we signed up an additional solar option in Q4 and maintain a robust pipeline of potential additional solar deals. As a reminder, we have nearly $200 million on a net present value basis worth of solar land sale and lease options under contract representing less than 1% of our timberland acreage ownership. We are focused on assessing additional natural climate solutions opportunities and are optimistic about the growth potential in this area. Although it may take some time for these efforts to bear fruit, we believe that they will lead to an increase in demand for our rural land and drive up timberland values.

說到 CatchMark，我們的營運亮點之一是於 2023 年初完成了 CatchMark 林地管理的內包流程，使我們能夠實現合併帶來的 2,100 萬美元年度現金協同效應的最後一部分。2023 年，我們的木製品部門貢獻了 2,000 萬調整後 EBITDA。我們運送了超過 11 億板英尺的木材，創下了公司年出貨量的新紀錄。我們的木製品團隊在安全績效方面又取得了強勁的一年，並成功完成了今年的資本項目計畫。談到我們的資本計劃。我們繼續推進耗資 1.31 億美元的項目，對阿肯色州 Waldo 鋸木廠進行現代化改造和擴建，現場準備工作和土木工程正在順利進行，第一階段的設備安裝計劃於第一季度晚些時候開始。專案將使工廠的年產能增加8500萬板英尺，並大幅降低現金處理成本。現有工廠將在項目期間繼續運營，預計今年中期將停工約三週，以安裝新設備，預計該項目將於 2024 年底前完成，我們的房地產部門已這是一個強勁的一年，我們為農村業務貢獻了6800 萬美元的調整後EBITDA，我們以每英畝近3,100 美元的價格出售了18,000 英畝土地。我們的房地產團隊利用今年早些時候對 CatchMark 林地的深入分層，在 2023 年取得了出色的成績。2023年，我們近一半的農村業務表現歸功於收購的CatchMark投資組合，該投資組合位於優秀的房地產市場。2023 年，我們的房地產開發業務在小型 Valley 總體規劃社區中出售了 128 個住宅用地，平均價格為每塊 104,000 美元。我們還完成了多項商業銷售，以每英畝近 575,000 美元的平均價格實現了超過 700 萬美元的收入。今年的大部分時間裡，我們對住宅用地產品的吸收都很好，但我們已經開始看到第四季度切納爾谷地區建築商對我們的地塊產品的吸收有適度放緩的跡象，我們的團隊也取得了不錯的成績自然氣候解決方案機會方面的進展 今年，我們正在完成近 50,000 英畝南部林地碳信用項目認證過程的最後階段。我們預計在未來幾個月內開始預先行銷工作，在市場上放置和銷售積分。今年下半年，太陽能開發商對太陽能機會表現出了濃厚的興趣，我們繼續增加合約下的太陽能選項庫存，我們在第四季度簽署了額外的太陽能選項，並保持了強勁的潛在額外太陽能管道交易。提醒一下，我們根據合約擁有近 2 億美元的太陽能土地出售和租賃選擇權（以淨現值計算），僅占我們林地所有權面積的 1% 以下。我們專注於評估額外的自然氣候解決方案機會，並對這一領域的成長潛力持樂觀態度。儘管這些努力可能需要一段時間才能取得成果，但我們相信它們將導致對農村土地的需求增加並推高林地價值。

Moving to capital allocation, we returned 169 million of cash to shareholders in 2023. That amount included 25 million of share repurchases at an average price of $45 per share, which is well below our estimated net asset value. We have an additional $125 million remaining on our existing share repurchase authorization. We follow a disciplined capital allocation strategy and continually evaluate all of our capital allocation opportunities to grow shareholder value over time. Over the course of the year, we have remained very patient and very disciplined surrounding M&A activity, only pursuing opportunities that meet our stringent criteria and that we believe would increase shareholder value. To that end, we just acquired 16,000 acres in Arkansas for $31 million or about $1,900 per acre through a privately negotiated one on one transaction. These high-quality timberlands are well-stocked with an average age of approximately 25 years. The acquired land portfolio also has strong rural real estate potential, including solar land sale or lease opportunities. Our disciplined opportunistic and nimble approach with capital allocation also applies to identifying opportunities to capitalize on higher timberland valuations as a result, we have entered into an agreement with Forest Investment Associates to sell approximately 34,000 acres of plantation timberlands located in Arkansas and Alabama with an average age of less than four years for approximately 58 million or $700 an acre. This transaction is at a significant premium to our underlying timberland value and is non-dilutive given the young nature of these trees. This transaction is subject to customary closing conditions is expected to close in the second quarter of 2024. At the end of the year, we had 230 million of cash on the balance sheet and total liquidity of $529 million. In December, we refinanced our $40 million debt maturity at well below market rates, utilizing our existing forward-starting interest rate swaps and maintained our weighted average cost of debt at 2.3%. The lowest of the timber rates our strong balance sheet and significant liquidity provides us with flexibility and a solid platform to continue growing shareholder value.

在資本配置方面，2023年我們向股東返還了1.69億現金。這筆金額包括以每股 45 美元的平均價格回購 2,500 萬股股票，遠低於我們估計的資產淨值。我們現有的股票回購授權還剩餘 1.25 億美元。我們遵循嚴格的資本配置策略，並持續評估所有資本配置機會，以隨著時間的推移增加股東價值。在這一年中，我們對併購活動保持非常耐心和嚴格的紀律，只尋求符合我們嚴格標準並且我們相信會增加股東價值的機會。為此，我們剛剛透過私下談判的一對一交易以 3,100 萬美元（即每英畝約 1,900 美元）的價格收購了阿肯色州的 16,000 英畝土地。這些優質林地資源豐富，平均樹齡約25年。收購的土地組合還具有強大的農村房地產潛力，包括太陽能土地銷售或租賃機會。我們嚴格的機會主義和靈活的資本配置方法也適用於尋找利用更高林地估值的機會，因此，我們已與Forest Investment Associates 達成協議，以平均價格出售位於阿肯色州和阿拉巴馬州的約34,000英畝人工林地年齡不到 4 年的土地大約需要 5800 萬美元或每英畝 700 美元。這項交易的溢價遠高於我們的林地價值，考慮到這些樹木的幼齡性質，該交易不會稀釋股權。此交易須滿足慣例成交條件，預計將於 2024 年第二季完成。截至年底，我們的資產負債表上有 2.3 億現金，流動資金總額為 5.29 億美元。12 月，我們利用現有的遠期起始利率掉期，以遠低於市場利率的價格為 4,000 萬美元的債務到期進行再融資，並將加權平均債務成本維持在 2.3%。木材評級最低，我們強大的資產負債表和充足的流動性為我們提供了靈活性和持續成長股東價值的堅實平台。

Shifting to the housing market, demand for new single-family residential construction continues to remain resilient as single-family starts eclipsed over 1 million starts for the second consecutive month. While the multifamily sector has contracted driven by new supply coming into the market and the ongoing elevated interest rate environment. A higher proportion of new single-family residential construction is an important lumber demand driver as single-family starts typically consume three times the amount of wood versus multifamily single-family starts have been fueled by momentum with consumer consumer confidence, solid labor market and recently declining interest rates. These factors, coupled with a historically low level of existing home inventory for sale in the U.S. has prospective homebuyers looking to purchase a new home versus an existing home. That said, housing affordability continues to remain a headwind for the housing market, while 30-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen over 100 basis points after hitting a two decade high in October, bringing some more life back into the housing market. Further declines in interest rates are needed to spur incremental demand. Thankfully, many economists are predicting that the Fed will trigger multiple rate cuts in 2024, which would help alleviate affordability challenges.

轉向房屋市場，新單戶住宅建設的需求持續保持彈性，單戶住宅開工量連續第二個月超過 100 萬套。然而，由於新供應進入市場和持續升高的利率環境，多戶住宅領域出現萎縮。新單戶住宅建設的比例較高，是重要的木材需求驅動因素，因為單戶住宅開工消耗的木材量通常是多戶住宅的三倍，消費者信心、穩定的勞動力市場和最近的勢頭推動了單戶住宅開工的成長。利率下降。這些因素，加上美國現有待售房屋庫存處於歷史低位，使得潛在購屋者更願意購買新房而不是現有房屋。儘管如此，住房負擔能力仍然是房地產市場的阻力，而 30 年期固定抵押貸款利率在 10 月觸及 20 年高點後已下跌超過 100 個基點，為房地產市場帶來了更多生機。需要進一步降低利率來刺激增量需求。值得慶幸的是，許多經濟學家預測聯準會將在 2024 年觸發多次降息，這將有助於緩解負擔能力挑戰。

Our longer-term outlook on housing fundamentals remains positive. We believe an underlying shortage of housing stock due largely to the combination of underbuilding after the great financial crisis and favorable demographics in the form of millennials will provide positive tailwinds to the housing market. We continue to expect that U.S. housing starts will return to levels above the long-term average of 1.8 million units per year once homes become more affordable.

我們對住房基本面的長期前景仍然樂觀。我們認為，房屋存量的根本性短缺，主要是由於金融危機後的建設不足和千禧世代的有利人口結構相結合，將為房地產市場帶來積極的推動力。我們繼續預計，一旦住房價格變得更便宜，美國新屋開工量將恢復到每年 180 萬套的長期平均水平以上。

Turning to the repair and remodel segment, demand in this market has remained steady, backed by strong consumer balance sheets and existing homeowners staying in their homes and fixing up versus moving up to a new home under the backdrop of a higher interest rate environment.

談到維修和改造領域，該市場的需求保持穩定，這得益於強勁的消費者資產負債表以及在利率上升的背景下現有房主留在自己的房屋並進行修理而不是搬到新房的情況。

Anecdotally, we also will continue to experience strong home center takeaway with our activity up 12% year over year.

有趣的是，我們也將繼續體驗強勁的家居中心外賣，我們的活動年增 12%。

Looking at the longer term, Horizon, repair and remodel market fundamentals continue to remain favorable. Our optimism is supported by an aging housing stock the remote work evolution and high home equity levels.

從長遠來看，地平線、維修和改造市場的基本面持續保持有利。我們的樂觀情緒得到了房屋存量老化、遠距工作演變和高房屋淨值水準的支持。

And so in summary, the Company performed well in a challenging year and made substantial progress on its strategic goals while continuing to remain disciplined on deploying capital. We delivered solid financial results in spite of an economic environment with elevated inflation and high interest rates, which impacted lumber demand and prices. Potlatchdeltic continues to be very well positioned with an investment grade balance sheet and a portfolio of high-quality assets. We will continue to be disciplined stewards of our capital and remain committed to prioritizing investments in high-return capital projects, acquisition opportunities and returning capital to our shareholders through our quarterly dividend and share repurchase program. I will turn it over to Wayne to discuss our fourth quarter results and our 2024 outlook figures.

總而言之，公司在充滿挑戰的一年中表現良好，在策略目標上取得了實質進展，同時繼續保持資本配置的紀律。儘管通貨膨脹和利率高的經濟環境影響了木材需求和價格，但我們仍取得了穩健的財務表現。Potlatchdeltic 以投資等級資產負債表和優質資產組合繼續處於有利地位。我們將繼續嚴格管理我們的資本，並繼續致力於優先投資高回報資本項目、收購機會，並透過季度股息和股票回購計畫向股東返還資本。我將把它交給韋恩討論我們第四季的業績和 2024 年的前景數據。

Starting with Page 4 of the slides. Adjusted EBITDA was 41 million in the fourth quarter compared to 56 million in the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decline in EBITDA was primarily due to lower lumber prices, lower index sawlog prices and seasonally lower harvest volumes in Idaho. These declines were offset in part by strong rural real estate sales. I will now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our fourth quarter results. Information for our Timberlands segment is displayed on Slides 5 through seven. The segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased from $42 million in the third quarter to 33 million in the fourth quarter. Operationally, our timberlands team harvested 2 million tons, establishing a record for our fourth quarter harvest volume from our heart. Our sawlog harvest in Idaho was 328 million tons in the fourth quarter. This was down seasonally from 377,000 tons that we harvested in the third quarter. Our Idaho sawlog prices were 15% lower on a per ton basis in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. The decline in sawlog prices primarily reflects lower prices for index sawlogs. In the South, we harvested 1.7 million tons in the fourth quarter, favorable weather conditions and good execution by a seller, Southern Timberlands team were key to achieving our harvest level. Our Southern sawlog prices were 2% higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. The increase was primarily driven by a higher mix of log, larger diameter sawlogs and slightly higher hardwood sawlog pricing for wood products segment, which is covered on Slides 8 and 9 had negative adjusted EBITDA of $6 million compared to the third quarter. Lumber prices were lower and the charge to write down lumber inventories to net realizable value was $4 million higher. Our average lumber price realization decreased $66 per thousand board feet or 14% in the quarter. This price decrease is comparable to the Random Lengths framing lumber composite on a percentage basis, our average lumber price realizations per thousand board feet or $427 in October four and one in November and $417 in December. Lumber shipments increased 9 million board feet from 276 million board feet in third quarter to 285 million board feet in the fourth quarter.

從投影片的第 4 頁開始。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 4,100 萬，而第三季為 5,600 萬。EBITDA 環比下降主要是由於木材價格下降、鋸木指數價格下降以及愛達荷州採伐量季節性下降。這些下降部分被強勁的農村房地產銷售所抵消。我現在將回顧我們的每個營運部門，並為我們第四季度的業績提供更多資訊。我們的 Timberlands 部門的資訊顯示在幻燈片 5 至 7 中。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 從第三季的 4,200 萬美元下降到第四季的 3,300 萬美元。在營運方面，我們的林地團隊收穫了 200 萬噸，創造了我們第四季度收穫量的記錄。第四季我們在愛達荷州的鋸木產量為 3.28 億噸。這比我們第三季收穫的 377,000 噸有所下降。與第三季相比，第四季愛達荷州鋸木價格每噸下降了 15%。鋸材價格的下降主要反映了指數鋸材價格的下降。在南方，我們在第四季度收穫了 170 萬噸，有利的天氣條件和賣方 Southern Timberlands 團隊的良好執行力是實現我們收穫水平的關鍵。與第三季相比，第四季我們南方鋸木價格上漲了 2%。這一增長主要是由於原木組合增加、直徑較大的鋸木和木製品領域硬木鋸木定價略高所致，幻燈片8 和9 中涵蓋的木製品領域的調整後EBITDA 與第三季度相比為600 萬美元。木材價格較低，而將木材庫存減記至可變現淨值的費用增加了 400 萬美元。本季我們的平均木材實現價格下降了每千板英尺 66 美元，即 14%。這一價格下降與按百分比計算的隨機長度框架木材複合材料相當，我們每千板英尺的平均木材價格實現為 10 月 4 日和 11 月 427 美元，11 月和 12 月 417 美元。木材出貨量增加了 900 萬板英尺，從第三季的 2.76 億板英尺增加到第四季的 2.85 億板英尺。

Shifting to real estate on slides 10 and 11, the segment's adjusted EBITDA was 22 million in the fourth quarter compared to 14 million in the third quarter. Ebitda generated by rural sales increased sequentially due to the sale of more acres at a lower average price in the fourth quarter. Our real real estate performance this quarter is a testament to the robust real estate markets where the CatchMark properties are located and that were stratified earlier in 2023. Ebitda generated by our Chenal Valley master-planned community declined slightly in the fourth quarter. We closed the sale of 30 residential lots in the fourth quarter at a higher average price compared to 32 lots from the third quarter. Also in the fourth quarter, we generated nearly 1 million in commercial revenue, which was comparable to the third quarter.

轉向幻燈片 10 和 11 上的房地產，該部門第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2200 萬美元，而第三季為 1400 萬美元。由於第四季以較低的平均價格出售了更多的土地，因此農村銷售產生的稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤 (Ebitda) 環比增長。我們本季的房地產表現證明了 CatchMark 房產所在的房地產市場的強勁，而該市場在 2023 年初進行了分層。我們的 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區產生的 Ebitda 在第四季度略有下降。我們在第四季以較高的平均價格完成了 30 個住宅地塊的銷售，而第三季為 32 個住宅地塊。同樣在第四季度，我們產生了近100萬的商業收入，與第三季度相當。

Turning to capital structure, which is summarized on slide 12, our total liquidity was 529 million. This amount includes 230 million of cash on our balance sheet, as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. We refinanced our $40 million of debt that matured in December at an interest rate of approximately 2.5% after patronage credits from lenders to achieve the below market rate. We utilized a portion of our outstanding forward-starting interest rate swaps, which lowers our annual interest cost by approximately $500,000. We still have 200 million notional of forward swaps to deploy, which will help us keep our future borrowing costs low. As we previously highlighted in the third quarter call, we repurchased 12 million shares in the fourth quarter at an average price of $45 per share. For the full year, we repurchased 556,000 shares at an average price of $45 per share or 25 million in the aggregate. This leaves us with 125 million remaining on our 200 million share repurchase authorization. Capital expenditures were 75 79 million in the fourth quarter, which includes 59 million for our Waldo Arkansas modernization project. These total expenditures also include real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations and our cash flow statement.

轉向投影片 12 中總結的資本結構，我們的總流動資金為 5.29 億美元。這筆金額包括我們資產負債表上的 2.3 億美元現金，以及我們未提取的左輪手槍的可用資金。在從貸方獲得贊助信貸後，我們以約 2.5% 的利率對 12 月到期的 4,000 萬美元債務進行了再融資，以達到低於市場的利率。我們利用了部分未償還的遠期利率掉期，這使我們的年利息成本降低了約 50 萬美元。我們仍有 2 億名目遠期掉期可供部署，這將有助於我們將未來的借貸成本維持在較低水準。正如我們之前在第三季電話會議中所強調的那樣，我們在第四季以每股 45 美元的平均價格回購了 1,200 萬股股票。全年，我們以每股 45 美元的平均價格回購了 556,000 股股票，總計 2,500 萬股。這使得我們在 2 億股股票回購授權中還剩下 1.25 億股。第四季的資本支出為 7579 百萬美元，其中包括我們的 Waldo 阿肯色州現代化項目的 5900 萬美元。這些總支出還包括房地產開發支出，這些支出包含在營運現金和我們的現金流量表中。

I will now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on Slide 13. We plan to harvest approximately 7.6 million tons in our Timberlands segment in 2024 with approximately 80% of the volume in the south harvest volumes in the north are planned to be comparable in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter of 2023. We expect Northern sawlog prices to decline about 5% in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter in the South, we plan to harvest approximately 1.5 million tons in the first quarter. We expect our Southern sawlog prices to decrease modestly, primarily due to seasonally fewer hardwood sawlogs in the mix. We plan to ship 1.1 billion board feet of lumber in 2020. For this level of expected shipments includes the impact of downtime at our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill for the modernization and expansion project. In the first quarter, we plan to ship 260 to 270 million board feet of lumber, which incorporates the effect of seasonally lower cap rates in our northern sawmills. Our average lumber price thus far in the first quarter is just slightly higher than our fourth quarter average lumber price. This is based on approximately 100 million board feet of lumber. As a reminder, at $10 per thousand board foot change in lumber price equals approximately 12 million of consolidated EBITDA for us on an annual basis 15 real estate, we expect to sell approximately 51,000 acres of rural land, which includes approximately 34,000 Southern acres to Forest Investment Associates, as Eric previously discussed. Also, we expect to sell 130 Chino Valley residential lots in 2024. Additional real estate details are provided on this slide. We estimate that interest expense will be approximately 1 million in the first quarter and approximately 9 million per quarter for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2024. Interest expense is lower in the first quarter than the other quarters because that is when we receive our annual patronage payments from the farm credit banks. Also these amounts are net of estimated interest income, which we expect to be lower in 2024 based on an estimated average cash balance over the course of the year.

我現在將提供一些高層展望評論。詳細資訊請參閱投影片 13。我們計劃在 2024 年在 Timberlands 部門收穫約 760 萬噸，其中南部收穫量的約 80% 計劃在第一季與 2023 年第四季相當。我們預計第一季北方鋸材價格將比南方第四季下降約 5%，我們計劃第一季收穫約 150 萬噸。我們預計南方鋸木價格將小幅下降，主要是由於混合中的硬木鋸木季節性減少。我們計劃在 2020 年運輸 11 億板英尺的木材。對於這一水準的預期出貨量，包括阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠現代化和擴建計畫停機的影響。第一季度，我們計劃運送 2.6 至 2.7 億板英尺的木材，其中考慮了北方鋸木廠季節性較低的上限率的影響。到目前為止，我們第一季的平均木材價格僅略高於第四季的平均木材價格。這是基於大約 1 億板英尺的木材。提醒一下，以木材價格每千板英尺變化 10 美元計算，我們每年 15 房地產的綜合 EBITDA 約為 1200 萬美元，我們預計將出售約 51,000 英畝的農村土地，其中包括約 34,000 英畝的南部土地給森林正如埃里克之前討論的那樣，投資協會。此外，我們預計 2024 年將出售 130 個奇諾谷住宅用地。此幻燈片提供了更多房地產詳細資訊。我們預計，2024年第一季利息支出約為100萬，第二、三、第四季每季利息支出約900萬。第一季的利息支出低於其他季度，因為這是我們從農業信貸銀行收到年度贊助付款的時候。此外，這些金額還扣除了預計利息收入，根據全年預計平均現金餘額，我們預計 2024 年利息收入將較低。

Turning to capital expenditures, we are planning to spend 100 to 110 million in 2024, excluding timberland acquisitions. That estimate includes approximately 44 million for the final installment on the Waldo, Arkansas sawmill modernization and expansion project. Also, as Eric mentioned, we already successfully completed an attractive bolt-on timberland acquisition in Arkansas for 31 million this year. We used cash on hand closed this transaction. Overall, we expect our total adjusted EBITDA will be moderately lower in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter. This is based on the overall expectation of slightly higher average lumber sawlog prices moderated by fewer rural real estate sales. We continue to remain bullish on industry fundamentals that drive demand in our business. Our integrated operating model and leverage to lumber prices are aligned with those fundamentals, and we are well positioned to continue growing shareholder value over the long term.

談到資本支出，我們計劃在 2024 年支出 1 億至 1.1 億美元，不包括林地收購。這項估計包括阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠現代化和擴建計畫最後一部分的約 4,400 萬美元。此外，正如艾瑞克所提到的，我們今年已經成功地以 3,100 萬美元的價格在阿肯色州完成了一項有吸引力的補強林地收購。我們使用手頭現金完成了這筆交易。總體而言，我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 總額將較第四季略有下降。這是基於由於農村房地產銷售減少而導致鋸材平均價格略高的整體預期。我們繼續看好推動我們業務需求的產業基本面。我們的綜合營運模式和對木材價格的影響力與這些基本面相一致，並且我們處於有利地位，可以長期持續增長股東價值。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Rob and I would now like to open the call to Q&A.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。羅布和我現在想開始問答電話。

At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America. Your line is open.

此時，我想提醒大家，要問，請按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的數字一。你的第一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯。您的線路已開通。

I everyone good morning. Thanks for the details. I guess first question I had is as we look towards resources and the there somewhat, I guess, reduction in harvest levels 1Q versus 2Q 4Q, is that purely seasonality and tough comps or there anything else that we should be mindful of relative to all the other detail that you've shared with us. And then I just want to make sure I understood. I from the slide deck, I think you have sawlog pricing down both in the north and the south in 1Q from 4Q. If that is the consideration with Harvest lower, should we expect that Timberland also is looking and lower EBITDA sequentially from Ford?

我大家早安。感謝您提供詳細資訊。我想我遇到的第一個問題是，當我們尋找資源時，我想，第一季與第二季和第四季的收穫水平有所下降，是純粹的季節性和艱難的比較，還是我們應該注意相對於所有其他因素您與我們分享的其他細節。然後我只是想確保我理解了。我從幻燈片上看，我認為第一季北部和南部的鋸木價格比第四季有所下降。如果這是 Harvest 降低的考慮因素，我們是否應該預期 Timberland 也會從福特那裡尋求並依次降低 EBITDA？

Okay.

好的。

Yes, this swing, yes, we are. It is seasonal on the volume side, both in the north and the south and keep in mind in the north, we have spring breakup, which definitely drops the harvest volume in the first quarter, and that also impact second quarter. But now Q4 to Q1, that's the main driver and then also the same thing in the South. There's just seasonal seasonal differences there as well. I think it's we're looking to harvest volumes that are consistent with seasonal norms on the volume side on the pricing side?

是的，這個鞦韆，是的，我們是。在產量方面，無論是北方還是南方，都是季節性的，請記住，在北方，我們有春季的分手，這肯定會降低第一季的收成量，這也會影響第二季度。但現在從第四季到第一季度，這是主要驅動力，南方也是如此。那裡也只是季節性差異。我認為我們正在尋求在定價方面收穫與銷售方面符合季節性規範的產量？

Yes.

是的。

When you look to the north, you've got a couple of factors there. One index sawlog pricing is down. You got to keep in mind that you have a one month lag there. So we're picking up pricing from December through February. So that's impacting the North plus combined with we have seasonal, seasonally heavier logs. So that's also bringing down the average price for the north in the South. We have it mostly a mix issue of less hardwood sawlogs in the mix. It's really a driving that decrease comparably, I would say prices are generally flat.

當你向北看時，你會發現有幾個因素。一項指數鋸木價格下跌。你必須記住，你有一個月的延遲。因此，我們將在 12 月至 2 月期間確定定價。因此，這對北方產生了影響，再加上我們有季節性的、季節性較重的原木。因此，這也拉低了南方北方的平均價格。我們遇到的主要是混合問題，混合中硬木鋸木較少。這確實是一個相對下降的驅動力，我想說價格基本上持平。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate they won't. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect. We know resource we know from real estate will be lower we know timberlands will be lower wood products, current levels of pricing, recognizing that no guarantees. And obviously you hopefully you will have an inventory charge this quarter. Are you breakeven or better from what you can see given where price are right now, given where production will be or might that still be at a bit of a loss in the first quarter?

我很感激他們不會。所以這樣的期待也不是沒有道理的。我們知道我們從房地產中了解到的資源將會降低，我們知道林地的木製品將會降低，目前的定價水平，並認識到沒有任何保證。顯然，您希望本季有庫存費用。考慮到目前的價格，考慮到第一季的產量或可能仍會出現一些虧損，您是否實現了損益平衡或更好？

From what you can see right now?

從現在你能看到什麼？

No, George, this is Eric. I Our expectation is that our mills fact every one of them is as profitable out in Q1.

不，喬治，這是埃里克。我們的預期是，我們的工廠在第一季都實現了盈利。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

For that, Eric.

為此，埃里克.

And then one last question I had for you certainly seasonality, lower pricing. There were a lot of things that were headwinds that a lot of this wood product companies were facing in the fourth quarter. Your results weren't are that different than what we've seen elsewhere so far. And nonetheless, it was a bit of a bracket number in the quarter. Are there any other things aside from the current project of Waldo that you're considering in terms of improving on your cost performance and your normalized earnings outlook?

我想問你的最後一個問題肯定是季節性，價格較低。許多木製品公司在第四季面臨許多不利因素。您的結果與我們迄今為止在其他地方看到的結果沒有什麼不同。儘管如此，這個季度的數字還是有點小。除了目前的 Waldo 專案之外，您還在考慮改善成本績效和正常化獲利前景的其他事項嗎？

No matter the environment in terms of demand and pricing? And if so, what sorts of things might we be seeing from from Potlatch on that front in the next year or two?

無論需求和定價環境如何？如果是這樣，在未來一兩年內，我們可能會從誇富宴中看到什麼樣的事情？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, I think so, George, this is Eric. I'll speak first and then Wayne can chime in after me. But I think if you look across the business units, so you start with Timberlands, we are expecting lower log and haul costs for the year. We have seen we have seen rates moderate, particularly in our northern region up and up in Idaho. So that will help provide a little bit of tailwind in wood products. We think that the outlook for pricing is favorable for us, given the supply and demand dynamic where you're seeing no closures. We've seen almost cash, 2.3 billion board feet leave the industry in the past 13, 14 months from lot of closures up in BC, the Pacific Northwest and also down in the down in the south. And we think the demand backdrop is improving as well. We talked about the shift towards single-family, and we also see, I would say growth in repair and remodel. But I see I see stability in repair and remodel, and I see less European imports this year. And if we can see interest rates come down in the back half of the year. And I think again, that supply demand backdrop is going to be is going to be favorable on the real estate side.

是的，我想是的，喬治，這是艾瑞克。我先發言，然後韋恩可以插話。但我認為，如果你縱觀各個業務部門，例如從 Timberlands 開始，我們預計今年的原木和運輸成本將會降低。我們已經看到利率適中，特別是在我們的北部地區和愛達荷州。因此，這將有助於為木製品提供一點推動力。我們認為，鑑於供應和需求動態，沒有看到關閉，定價前景對我們有利。在過去的 13、14 個月裡，由於 BC 省、太平洋西北部地區以及南部地區的大量關閉，我們看到該行業幾乎損失了 23 億板英尺的現金。我們認為需求背景也在改善。我們討論了向單戶住宅的轉變，我們也看到，我想說的是修復和改造的成長。但我看到維修和改造的穩定性，而且今年歐洲進口的數量減少了。如果我們能看到利率在下半年下降。我再次認為，供需背景對房地產方面將是有利的。

Yes, Q1 is going to be a little bit weak in real estate. Sales are always lumpy. Q2 is going to be huge with our RFIA. sale.

是的，第一季房地產市場將會有點疲軟。銷量總是起伏不定。我們的 RFIA 第二季將會非常重要。銷售。

And just to just to comment on that real fast. You know, where we're selling those acres that we think somewhere between the 3.5% and 4% IRR to the buyer, and we're redeploying that capital into some of that anyway into the RidgeWorth acquisition, that's got an 8% IRR. So that's going to favorably impact the P&L as well. So some minor puts and takes along the way. But I think the big picture in my mind is that the backdrop for our business, which is really lumber demand, is favorable.

只是為了快速發表評論。你知道，我們將那些我們認為 IRR 介於 3.5% 到 4% 之間的土地出售給買家，並且我們將這些資本重新部署到 RidgeWorth 收購中，其中的一些土地的 IRR 為 8%。因此，這也會對損益產生有利影響。所以一路上會有一些小小的投入和消耗。但我認為我心目中的大局是，我們的業務（實際上是木材需求）的背景是有利的。

So on that front, just to finish up, you don't see any need for sort of and a structural or more project-specific cost out within Wood was really where I was going with that question, given what you can see given capacity coming out the backdrop and so on. That's really where I was going with that question.

因此，在這方面，最後，考慮到您可以看到的給定容量，您認為伍德內部不需要任何結構性或更多特定於項目的成本，這確實是我要解決的問題出背景等等。這就是我提出這個問題的真正目的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, yes. So we've really really got it's not just our Waldo project. We've also got a new, a long train going in at our Warren sawmill. We're putting in a new sawmill trim short line at our Warren mill and those projects are 15% to 20% kind of IRR projects, but they're going to take a year or two to get to get completed. So we're constantly looking for projects, frankly, capital projects and our mills offers us some of the highest returns for our in our capital allocation. So we're constantly looking at things and we do have a few projects underway, but they're going to they're going to take some time.

是的是的。所以我們真的明白這不僅僅是我們的 Waldo 項目。我們的沃倫鋸木廠也有一輛新的長火車駛入。我們正在沃倫工廠安裝一條新的鋸木廠修剪短線，這些項目是 15% 到 20% 的 IRR 項目，但它們需要一到兩年才能完成。因此，我們一直在尋找項目，坦白說，資本項目和我們的工廠為我們的資本配置提供了最高的回報。因此，我們不斷地關注事物，我們確實有一些正在進行中的項目，但它們需要一些時間。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citigroup. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Anthony Pettinari。您的線路已開通。

Good morning. For joining.

早安.為了加入。

Hey, when you look at the log prices in 4Q and your expectations for 1Q, we're just wondering if you're seeing in the Southern region, any differential trends between Arkansas and then sort of the Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama footprint from CatchMark? And then I guess maybe a related question. Can you just remind us in terms of hardwood lumber or hardwood?

嘿，當您查看第四季度的原木價格以及對第一季的預期時，我們只是想知道您是否在南部地區看到阿肯色州與喬治亞州、南卡羅來納州、阿拉巴馬州之間的差異趨勢捕獲標記？然後我想也許是一個相關的問題。您能提醒我們硬木木材還是硬木嗎？

Sorry, hardwood logs, like what percentage of the harvest that would be? Or it seems like that impacted prices or mix. Can you just kind of maybe dimensionalize that a little bit?

抱歉，硬木原木，收成的百分比是多少？或者這似乎影響了價格或組合。你能稍微把它維度化一下嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think from a regional standpoint, on the timberland side, we have the markets are tend to be more tensioned in the Georgia, South Carolina markets. And with that, we saw earlier in the year. Prices drop a little more there earlier in the year with our mills taking economic downtime, delivery quotas. But we've seen that stabilize and all of our markets throughout the year and continuing to improve. So purely on a volume standpoint and are able to move volume. I think on a pricing standpoint, that's been relatively flat as we've progressed through the year. And as we head into Q. one and now with that as demand as we as demand improves, we would see, I think pricing improve in those more tension markets in the Southeast and where we've historically seen them. They're not as tension for us in a lot of the wood baskets in Arkansas and Alabama, Mississippi. So pricing may take a little more time to move there. But when when we do see demand pick up, I think that's where we'll see bigger price increases in that region.

我認為從區域角度來看，在林地方面，喬治亞州和南卡羅來納州的市場往往更加緊張。我們在今年早些時候就看到了這一點。今年早些時候，由於我們的工廠採取經濟停頓和交貨配額，價格略有下降。但我們已經看到這一情況穩定下來，我們所有的市場全年都在持續改善。因此，純粹從成交量的角度來看，我們能夠改變成交量。我認為從定價的角度來看，隨著我們今年的進展，價格相對持平。當我們進入第一個問題時，隨著需求的改善，我們會看到，我認為東南部以及我們歷史上見過的那些更緊張的市場的定價會有所改善。在阿肯色州和阿拉巴馬州、密西西比州的許多木籃子裡，它們對我們來說並不那麼緊張。因此，定價可能需要更多時間才能實現。但當我們確實看到需求回升時，我認為我們會看到該地區的價格大幅上漲。

Got it.

知道了。

And then yes, on the mix side put in sort of good for good mix.

然後是的，在混合方面加入了某種有益於良好混合的東西。

We have a the hardwood mix.

我們有硬木混合物。

Yes, sir?

是的先生？

Yes.

是的。

On the hardwood mix, that's oh, I mean, it's probably in the neighborhood. It's only gone up a couple of percentage points, maybe five to 10 here in the quarter.

在硬木混合上，哦，我的意思是，它可能就在附近。本季僅上升了幾個百分點，可能是 5 到 10 個百分點。

Got it. Got it. And then just shifting gears, you talked about I think monetization of the credit project, I think in the second half of the year. Just wondering if you could talk about sort of the activities that need to be completed in order to make that happen? And are you working with third parties or marketers registry is just sort of anything you can kind of share on on? Is it kind of time line. And yes, so we're deep into the process now, Anthony, that the first step really is to bring in an order that will do the math and prove out to the investing public, if you will, that the credits are for real and that's a rather lengthy process. And as you can imagine, in this kind of net zero environment that we're in the demand for these auditors is sky high, and it's not just for Timberland projects. It runs the gamut and how you get carbon out of the atmosphere. So these these folks these consulting firms are in very high demand. But if you want to have quality credits, you got to have monitored by an independent third party. That's got a good reputation and so that's the process that we're going through. We expect to have that process done by, I would say, perhaps early in the third quarter and shortly after we get them verified and we're going to we're going to put them out to bid and we've lined up Vera, which is one of the two large firms that sell carbon credits around the world great reputation. There are well entrenched in the European market, which is where we think our credits are going to have the most value. And so we expect to monetize those those credits shortly after they get, they get the audit come through. And so that's probably going to be in the third quarter as well.

知道了。知道了。然後只是換檔，你談到了信貸項目的貨幣化，我認為是在今年下半年。只是想知道您是否可以談談為了實現這一目標而需要完成哪些活動？您是否正在與第三方合作，或者行銷人員註冊只是您可以分享的任何內容？這是一種時間軸嗎？是的，所以我們現在正在深入研究這個過程，安東尼，第一步實際上是提交一份訂單，進行數學計算並向投資公眾證明，如果你願意的話，這些積分是真實的，並且這是一個相當漫長的過程。正如您可以想像的那樣，在這種淨零環境下，我們對這些審核員的需求非常高，而且不僅僅是 Timberland 專案。它涵蓋了所有內容以及如何從大氣中去除碳。因此，這些顧問公司對這些人的需求非常大。但如果你想獲得優質信用，就必須受到獨立第三方的監控。這有很好的聲譽，所以這就是我們正在經歷的過程。我想說，我們預計這個過程可能會在第三季度初完成，在我們驗證它們之後不久，我們將把它們進行投標，我們已經對維拉進行了排隊，這是在世界範圍內銷售碳信用額的兩家大公司之一，享有盛譽。這些在歐洲市場根深蒂固，我們認為我們的信用將在歐洲市場具有最大價值。因此，我們希望在他們獲得這些信用並通過審核後不久將其貨幣化。因此，這也可能發生在第三季。

Okay.

好的。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

I'll turn it over again.

我再把它翻過來。

Your next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ketan Mamtora。您的線路已開通。

Thank you, Tom. First question, can you talk a little bit about you now some of the capacity curtailments that we've seen in the US south on the sawmill side, I'm surprised that you're seeing capacity curtailments in the U.S. South and related to that any impact on your wood basket from the recent Arkansas mill shutdown announcement?

謝謝你，湯姆。第一個問題，您現在可以談談我們在美國南部鋸木廠方面看到的一些產能削減嗎？我很驚訝您看到美國南部的產能削減以及與之相關的情況最近阿肯色州工廠關閉的公告對您的木籃有什麼影響？

Now?

現在？

You know, that's I wouldn't say I'm a modestly surprised about the curtailments in the South. I mean, everybody talks about cheap fibers in the South. It's a great place to make lumber much better than up in BC and whatnot, Pacific Northwest. But when you get into some of these some of these specific wood baskets, like I think West Fraser, for example, they closed the mill down in Florida. That was a really tight wood basket, and that's a relatively small mill. And same thing when you look at I think Boise Cascade closed the mill in Alabama, West Fraser closed another one in Huttig, Arkansas. Those are smaller mills with tougher cost structures. I'm guessing that capital investment may not have happened over the years because the owners recognize that long term, the mills couldn't be competitive. And so yes, I'm not surprised I guess at the at the end of the day that some mills have closed in the south?

你知道，我不會說我對南方的限電感到有點驚訝。我的意思是，每個人都在談論南方的廉價纖維。這是一個生產木材的好地方，比不列顛哥倫比亞省和太平洋西北地區的木材好得多。但是，當你進入其中一些特定的木籃時，例如我認為西弗雷澤，他們關閉了佛羅裡達州的工廠。那是一個非常緊的木籃，那是一個相對較小的磨坊。同樣的事情，我認為博伊西喀斯喀特關閉了阿拉巴馬州的工廠，西弗雷澤關閉了阿肯色州哈蒂格的另一家工廠。這些工廠規模較小，成本結構更為嚴格。我猜測多年來可能沒有進行資本投資，因為業主意識到從長遠來看，工廠無法具有競爭力。所以，是的，我猜到最後南方的一些工廠已經關閉，我並不感到驚訝？

To answer the second part of your question, did the West Fraser mill and how to impact the US?

回答你問題的第二部分，西弗雷澤工廠對美國有影響嗎？

No, not not not at all from one of our competitors has got a large block of timberland near that mill and they are the primary supplier to Huttig. So no impact us.

不，完全不是因為我們的一個競爭對手在該工廠附近擁有一大片林地，而且他們是 Huttig 的主要供應商。所以對我們沒有影響。

Understood. Now that that's helpful.

明白了。現在這很有幫助。

And then can you talk a little bit about industrial on the M&A pipeline on the timberland side? Obviously, you did kind of a small bolt-on, but in general, kind of how does the pipeline look right now?

然後您能談談林地方面併購管道中的工業嗎？顯然，你做了一些小的補充，但總的來說，管道現在看起來怎麼樣？

Yes. I'd tell you that the M&A market is really tight. I'd say typically 3 to 4 billion of timberland trades hands each year. And I think something like last year, maybe 1.5 traded hands. And I think sellers there are basically holding off some waiting for maybe housing and lumber prices to improve, perhaps interest rates to come down or frankly, maybe more importantly for carbon deals become more mainstream and carbon is having a bigger and bigger deal. I think that's one of the takeaways for this call. When you look at the transaction that we had with FIA. was with the ultimate as a European investor, not if it's going to own those trees, we sold trees that were, I think, 3.8 years old for $700 an acre. What was it? Five years ago, you buy average age timberland in the south for $700 an acre on carbon is having a bigger and bigger deal. And especially if you look at the large sums of capital that have been raised to pursue timberland for a carbon outcome.

是的。我可以告訴你，併購市場非常緊張。我想說，每年通常有 300 到 40 億塊林地進行交易。我想就像去年一樣，可能有 1.5 手交易。我認為那裡的賣家基本上都在等待房屋和木材價格上漲，也許利率下降，或者坦白說，也許更重要的是碳交易變得更加主流，而碳交易正在變得越來越大。我認為這是這次電話會議的要點之一。當你看看我們與國際汽聯的交易。作為歐洲投資者，我們的最終目標是不考慮是否要擁有這些樹木，我們以每英畝 700 美元的價格出售了我認為樹齡 3.8 年的樹木。它以前如何？五年前，你以每英畝 700 美元的價格購買南方平均年齡的林地，碳交易的規模越來越大。尤其是如果你看看為追求碳結果而開發林地而籌集的大量資金。

I can I can reference a bunch of Oak Hill raised 1.8 billion. They bought 1.7 million acres from forest land. Manulife said it was raising 500 million for timber carbon offsets. Jpmorgan acquired Campbell Global at T-Mo, and then subsequently bought 250,000 acres for $500 million in the south Goldman Sachs and Apple just raised 200 million for a carbon offset funds. So, you know, I think people are holding off bringing their timberland to market, waiting for this capital to get raised and then waiting for it to desperately look for a home because that ultimately is going to push up timberland values.

我可以參考一下Oak Hill募集的18億一堆。他們購買了 170 萬英畝的林地。宏利表示，它正在籌集 5 億美元用於木材碳抵消。摩根大通收購了 T-Mo 的 Campbell Global，隨後以 5 億美元的價格購買了南部的 25 萬英畝土地，而高盛和蘋果剛剛籌集了 2 億美元作為碳抵消基金。所以，你知道，我認為人們推遲將林地推向市場，等待資金籌集，然後等待它拼命尋找房屋，因為這最終會推高林地價值。

Got it.

知道了。

No, that's very helpful. And I'll turn it over to Larry.

不，這非常有幫助。我會把它交給拉里。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Roxland from Truist Securities. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。您的線路已開通。

Thank you, Eric. And no, we for taking my questions on the first question, just can you help me just understand what's happening with respect to margins in wood products. So just following up on what George was asking earlier, because when I look back historically, when there were a period of time, we had lower prices, lower volumes, just still managed to generate mid-single digit high single digit EBITDA margins. So I'm just wondering what is there something going on from a cost vantage point that's negatively impacting your performance in wood products?

謝謝你，埃里克。不，我們就第一個問題回答我的問題，您能否幫助我了解木製品利潤率的情況。因此，只是跟進喬治之前提出的問題，因為當我回顧歷史時，有一段時間，我們的價格較低，銷量較低，但仍然設法產生中個位數的高個位數 EBITDA 利潤率。所以我只是想知道從成本角度來看，有什麼事情會對你們的木製品性能產生負面影響？

Well, yes, certainly, Michael, there, as you know, in the inflationary environment we've seen over the past year or two of costs running sawmills have moved up meaningfully. And what you what you saw this past year and in particular in the fourth quarter is with the higher interest rates, demand has dropped and it dropped to the point where capacity utilization in the industry and is that the lowest it's been, I think since going back to 2013 is what I read the other day or whenever you get into a situation in a commodity industry where capacity utilization is at rock-bottom levels, you're going to see prices collapse as everybody tries to keep their mills running full and subsequently prices come down. I mean, I am happy that our lumber margins in Q4, while they're negative, I'm certainly not happy about that. If I strip out plywood, we were something like minus 1% in lumber and I think I've only seen one of our peers report so far and we did, I would say, meaningfully better than our than our peer. So it's a tough environment, right now, but I think the backdrop is for things to get much better.

嗯，是的，當然，邁克爾，正如你所知，在過去一兩年的通貨膨脹環境中，我們看到鋸木廠的營運成本大幅上升。去年，特別是第四季度，隨著利率上升，需求下降，行業產能利用率下降到最低水平，我認為這是自去年以來的最低水平。回到2013 年，這是我前幾天讀到的，或者每當你進入大宗商品行業的產能利用率處於最低水平的情況時，你就會看到價格崩潰，因為每個人都試圖讓他們的工廠滿負荷運轉，隨後價格下降。我的意思是，我很高興我們第四季的木材利潤率是負值，但我對此當然不滿意。如果我去掉膠合板，我們的木材含量大約是-1%，我想到目前為止我只看到了我們同行的一份報告，我想說，我們的表現比我們的同行要好得多。所以現在的環境很艱難，但我認為背景是事情會變得更好。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So that's actually that's actually coming mainly when you strip out plywood, actually, lumber is only minus what the margin was average was minus 1% for the quarter, Greg.

所以這實際上主要是當你剔除膠合板時產生的，實際上，木材只是減去本季平均利潤率的負 1%，格雷格。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for that. On the functionality you mentioned also just dumb seeing a slower take-up, quite a large builders in 4Q. What are you seeing now from them? Has that accelerated because those rates have come down?

謝謝你。關於您提到的功能，看到第四季度的使用速度較慢、相當大的建造者也是愚蠢的。你現在從他們身上看到了什麼？是否因為這些利率下降而加速了？

Some of the builders that have been reporting have been showing pretty pretty good demand in 4Q and the relative increase over 24. So I'm wondering if you've seen that reverse thus far in the quarter?

一些已經報告的建築商在第四季度表現出相當不錯的需求，並且相對增長超過 24。所以我想知道本季度到目前為止您是否看到了這種逆轉？

Yes, Michael, this Wayne?

是的，邁克爾，這個韋恩？

Yes, we did have good absorption through most of the year ago, Q4. That's when we started to see modest signs of slowing there. I think is we have an outlook into 2024 right now where we're looking at about the same level of sales as we had in 23. So we're up we are heading into the year with kind of the same same view as coming out of Q4. Keep in mind, you should all this is one smaller market in Little Rock, Arkansas. It's not a robust real estate market for single-family residential as compared to other kind of broader Metro metropolitan areas in the South. And additionally, I think also keep in mind that national market or regional builders, they don't have the same balance sheet or tools available to offer incentives to homebuilders compared to large national builders. So these these regional builders and sort of maybe building eight homes, they might build six five and then the like large national homebuilders, they're not going to build as many spec homes and anticipating the sale upon completion. So I think that those kind of market dynamics play into it. I think given that they're not it's the same balance sheets as large homebuilders, that they're going to be a little cautious until rates start to move more.

是的，我們在去年第四季的大部分時間確實吸收得很好。就在那時，我們開始看到那裡有適度放緩的跡象。我認為我們現在對 2024 年有展望，我們的銷售水準與 23 年大致相同。因此，我們將以與第四季度相同的觀點進入今年。請記住，這一切都應該是阿肯色州小石城的一個較小的市場。與南方其他更廣泛的大都會區相比，這並不是一個強勁的單戶住宅房地產市場。此外，我認為還要記住，與大型全國建築商相比，全國市場或區域建築商沒有相同的資產負債表或工具來為住宅建築商提供誘因。因此，這些區域建築商可能會建造八棟房屋，他們可能會建造六棟五棟，然後像大型全國性住宅建築商一樣，他們不會建造那麼多規格的房屋，並預計完工後會出售。所以我認為這種市場動態會發揮作用。我認為，鑑於他們的資產負債表與大型住宅建築商不同，他們會有點謹慎，直到利率開始大幅波動。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, Wayne. And then just one one last question. I'd love to get more of a strategic question. You've over the last 18 months or so. We've seen a number of mill closures, line closures you have in vivo events contending with a lot of its own problems there structuring and impact on the demand for pulpwood. So just think about pulpwood in general with the mill closures line closures and Aviva, I realize that's less valuable and saw timber, but nevertheless, nevertheless, helps with your cash flow. How do you think about your rotations, your harvest planning with pulp wood facing this hybrid where you have secular demand decline somewhere there?

謝謝你，韋恩。然後是最後一個問題。我很想了解更多戰略問題。您已經過去 18 個月左右了。我們已經看到許多工廠關閉、生產線關閉，這些事件都面臨許多自身的問題，這些問題的結構和對紙漿木材需求的影響。因此，只要考慮一下紙漿木材，隨著工廠關閉、生產線關閉和 Aviva，我意識到紙漿木材的價值較低，並且鋸材，但儘管如此，仍然有助於您的現金流。您如何看待您的輪作，您對紙漿木材的收穫計劃，面對這種混合動力，因為您的某個地方的長期需求下降？

Yes, certainly, that's an area we're focused on. I think with these announced closures. Now, as Eric mentioned earlier, we have we have not a direct impact to us and then you're going to break that down between volume and price. I think from a volume perspective, we continue to move volume and we have strong relationships with our customers, especially our large customers. And then also with our size and scale, we can move volume to alternative customers from a volume price and volume perspective, certainly we can move it, I think from a pricing dynamic, yes, clearly less demand with mill closures creates less demand and that that has an overall impact on the pricing environment. And that's what we've seen very kind of been flat there on the pulpwood side and heading into Q1, relatively flat still. So I think that's the near term. I think longer term where we have all we are very active in the market about what are some longer term opportunities right now there's we're in discussions with a lot of different producers, biomass producers that from biopower to pellets to biofuels and bioplastics, and that would utilize pulpwood. And I think those will create opportunities. Now this investment will take a bit of time, but we do believe that this will bring more demand and attention to certain wood baskets in the south guy.

是的，當然，這是我們關注的一個領域。我認為隨著這些宣布的關閉。現在，正如埃里克之前提到的，我們對我們沒有直接影響，然後你將把它分解為數量和價格。我認為從銷售的角度來看，我們繼續增加銷量，並且我們與客戶，特別是我們的大客戶建立了牢固的關係。然後，憑藉我們的規模和規模，我們可以從數量、價格和數量的角度將產量轉移給替代客戶，當然我們可以轉移它，我認為從定價動態來看，是的，工廠關閉帶來的需求明顯減少會導致需求減少，而且這對定價環境有整體影響。這就是我們所看到的，紙漿用材方面一直持平，進入第一季度，仍然相對持平。所以我認為這是近期的。我認為從長遠來看，我們在市場上非常活躍，我們正在與許多不同的生產商、生物質生產商進行討論，從生物電力到顆粒，再到生物燃料和生物塑料，以及將利用紙漿木材。我認為這將創造機會。現在這項投資需要一些時間，但我們確實相信這將為南方傢伙的某些木籃帶來更多的需求和關注。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very much and good luck in 24.

非常感謝，祝24歲好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Matthew McKellar。你的線是。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my questions. I'm wondering, are you able to comment on what your forest carbon development pipeline looks like beyond this first project developing in the south? And maybe comment on how we should be thinking about the pace of project development and delivery Looking beyond 24?

感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道，除了在南方開發的第一個專案之外，您能否評論一下您們的森林碳開發管道是什麼樣的？也許還可以評論一下我們應該如何考慮專案開發和交付的節奏 展望 24 小時之後？

Yes.

是的。

So we do we do have this first project well underway. It's just under 50,000 acres. We're pretty excited about it, Tom, because we've built up like three years of carbon credits in inventory. So the first sale is probably going to be close to $0.5 million of credits from We are building our pipeline. Um, we've got a number of acres that we think are the highest value and the best value for those acres it's going to be a carbon outcome and we want to see how this first project plays out. And right now, I think we're eyeing maybe another 100,000 acres that that could be well suited for carbon outcome. But of course, it all depends on the carbon price and the outlook for the carbon price. So the higher we see those prices go the more acres we're going to think about some have a better outcome for carbon versus traditional timber. So we'll have to see how that develops.

所以我們確實第一個專案正在順利進行中。佔地不到 50,000 英畝。湯姆，我們對此感到非常興奮，因為我們已經在庫存中累積了大約三年的碳信用。因此，第一筆銷售可能會接近 50 萬美元，來自我們正在建造的管道。嗯，我們有一些英畝的土地，我們認為這些土地的價值最高，而這些土地的最佳價值將是碳結果，我們想看看第一個項目的效果如何。現在，我認為我們正在考慮另外 100,000 英畝的土地，這可能非常適合碳結果。但當然，這一切都取決於碳價格和碳價格的前景。因此，我們看到這些價格越高，我們就會考慮到與傳統木材相比，一些碳木材的結果會更好。所以我們必須看看事情會如何發展。

Okay, great. Thanks for that.

好的，太好了。感謝那。

And then just one more for me. What's your sense here today where channel inventory levels sit for wood products as we ramp into the building season?

然後再給我一個。隨著建築季節的到來，您今天對木製品的通路庫存水準有何看法？

I think there are just rock bottom levels. They all I think what's changed over the past couple of years is especially with the price run-up that we saw back in 21 and 22, some dealers just don't want to carry inventories. They want just-in-time deliveries and which is generally why southern pine carries a premium over over SPF, um, and I think what's happened here recently is with the cold weather that's come across the U.S., a lot of job sites were shut down some. There's no activity. So dealers went to even lower levels. So I think where we're at right now is just at rock-bottom levels. So hopefully with this warmer weather that's showing up, we'll see some some some buying activity here.

我認為只有最低水平。我認為過去幾年發生的變化尤其是我們在 21 和 22 年看到的價格上漲，一些經銷商只是不想持有庫存。他們想要及時交貨，這通常是為什麼南方鬆的價格高於 SPF 的原因，嗯，我認為最近發生的事情是由於美國各地的寒冷天氣，很多工作地點都被關閉了一些。沒有活動啊因此經銷商的價格甚至更低。所以我認為我們現在的處境只是處於最低水準。因此，希望隨著天氣變暖，我們會在這裡看到一些購買活動。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回來。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And again, if you would like to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger from D.A.

再次強調，如果您想提問，請按電話鍵盤上的星號一。你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yiner。

Davidson. Your line is open.

戴維森。您的線路已開通。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, and good morning, Eric and Wayne.

謝謝，早上好，艾瑞克和韋恩。

Morning.

早晨。

And I know that, John, the 34,000 acre disposition, you talked about the young age class profile. Just curious if you could provide any details on maybe harvest levels and any EBITDA contributions from that acreage over the past year or maybe what you're expecting in terms of a five-year plan or anything like that?

我知道，約翰，34,000 英畝的配置，你談到了年輕階層的概況。只是好奇您是否可以提供有關過去一年該種植面積的收穫水平和 EBITDA 貢獻的任何詳細信息，或者您對五年計劃或類似內容的預期？

Yes. So that so that sale, which was 34,000 acres in total, was split roughly 80%, Arkansas, 20%, Alabama, as I mentioned, the trees were less than four years old, I think 3.8 years old, and they were in a traditional southern yellow pine plantation type type forestry. Some they're going to have virtually had we kept those trees. They would have virtually no impact to our harvest profile for the next 22 years. There would have been some thinning along the way at age 14 or 15. But given where pulp prices are, I don't think there's much much margin to it, so virtually no impact for 22 years. And then if you look out to when those trees would reach maturity, the impact is about 3 to 400,000 tonnes per year for about six years. So no impact really for 22 years and then it's 3 to 400,000 tonnes per year for about six years and then it drops to zero. So that was that was the trade-off here that makes sense.

是的。因此，總共 34,000 英畝的銷售面積大約分為 80%，阿肯色州，20%，阿拉巴馬州，正如我所提到的，這些樹的樹齡還不到四年，我認為是 3.8 年，而且它們處於傳統的南方黃松人工林類型。有些樹其實是由我們保留的。它們實際上不會對我們未來 22 年的收成狀況產生任何影響。在 14 或 15 歲時，身體會逐漸變得稀疏。但考慮到紙漿價格，我認為沒有太多餘地，因此 22 年來幾乎沒有影響。如果你留意這些樹木何時成熟，你會發現，在大約六年的時間裡，每年的影響約為 300 至 40 萬噸。因此，22 年內實際上沒有任何影響，然後大約六年內每年產量為 300 至 40 萬噸，然後降至零。這就是這裡的權衡是有意義的。

Yes, it makes sense. Thanks for that. And then second question, we talked about kind of the solar opportunities for a couple of quarters now you have on one decent size sale around that. Just sort of curious how you think about that opportunity with some of the deals in the pipeline and in terms of timing and whether you think 2024 could be the year where the rubber really hits the road and we see some more material impacts from.

是的，這是有道理的。感謝那。然後是第二個問題，我們討論了幾個季度的太陽能機會，現在您有一個相當大的銷售機會。只是有點好奇您如何看待正在醞釀中的一些交易的機會以及時機，以及您是否認為 2024 年可能是橡膠真正上路的一年，我們會看到更多的實質性影響。

Yes, that's a great question, Kurt. I we did we did get another solar deal just signed up here is, as we mentioned earlier, our pipeline is big. The outlook for solar has never been greater in the if you look at what NextEra Energy says, which is a huge solar developer or RWE big German solar developer, everybody's talking about solar tripling between now and the end of the decade.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，庫爾特。正如我們之前提到的，我們確實在這裡簽署了另一項太陽能協議，我們的管道很大。太陽能的前景從未如此美好，如果你看看NextEra Energy（一家大型太陽能開發商或RWE大型德國太陽能開發商）的說法，每個人都在談論從現在到本十年末太陽能將增加兩倍。

Now that being said and to put together a solar farm is a very complicated process. And that's why you you when you go to enter into an agreement with one of these developers, the first step for them is getting getting land under option. They need to know that they've got a home for their for their farm and it needs to meet certain attributes like close to high power transmission lines and whatnot, but they've got to then go find the equipment. They got to find the panels, which you know that now you have supply chain issues coming from China and you've got to negotiate offtake agreements that takes time from utilities. Just a lot of work goes into it. I don't expect 2024 is going to be the year for a lot of solar farms to have those options get exercised in our portfolio. I think 2025 is going to be a great year for us. But we'll see where things are at as we get to the end of the year and we'll give guidance and budget. I think our view is that those developers are going to pull the trigger starting in 25.

話雖如此，組成太陽能發電場是一個非常複雜的過程。這就是為什麼當你與這些開發商簽訂協議時，他們的第一步就是獲得土地選擇權。他們需要知道他們的農場有一個家，並且需要滿足某些屬性，例如靠近高輸電線路等等，但他們必須去尋找設備。他們必須找到面板，你知道現在你有來自中國的供應鏈問題，你必須談判承購協議，這需要公用事業公司的時間。只是需要做很多工作。我預計 2024 年不會是許多太陽能發電場在我們的投資組合中行使這些選項的一年。我認為 2025 年對我們來說將是偉大的一年。但到年底我們會看到情況，並給予指導和預算。我認為我們的觀點是，這些開發人員將從 25 年開始扣動扳機。

Got it.

知道了。

And is it fair to say that, you know, your preference would still be to primarily lease in those deals as opposed to sell or I guess as you kind of look across the agreements and what that might entail, which way would you lean or which way, I guess would the economics point of view?

公平地說，你知道，你的偏好仍然是主要在這些交易中租賃而不是出售，或者我猜當你查看協議以及可能需要什麼時，你會傾向於哪種方式或哪種方式順便，我想從經濟學的角度來看？

Yes, we would we would definitely prefer to lease. We like the long-term income stream. We like the those things are indexed back to inflation, CPI. What kind of what not. But I will tell you that there are some of those developers that refuse to enter into leases they have to buy. And certainly given all the prices, $10,000 an acre. What have you? We're happy to be up to be a seller if they refuse to lease. So either either way, it's a great outcome for us. But our preference is to lease.

是的，我們肯定更願意租賃。我們喜歡長期的收入來源。我們喜歡將這些因素與通貨膨脹、CPI 掛鉤。什麼樣的什麼不。但我會告訴你，有些開發商拒絕簽訂他們必須購買的租賃合約。當然，考慮到所有價格，每英畝 10,000 美元。你有什麼？如果他們拒絕租賃，我們很樂意成為賣家。所以無論哪種方式，這對我們來說都是一個很好的結果。但我們更喜歡租賃。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Makes sense.

說得通。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

Good luck here in Q1.

祝第一季好運。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub from Seaport Global Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Mark Weintraub，您的線路已開通。

Thank you. A couple of follow-ups on. So first on the solar, since we're just talking on that and you can kind of you throughout fine equipment offtake is there a permitting process that needs to happen? And does that tend to happen first? And then I would imagine you do the offtake second and then find the equipment third Is that sort of the order things would normally take?

謝謝。一些後續行動。首先是關於太陽能，因為我們只是在談論這個問題，您可以在整個精細設備承購過程中向您提問，是否需要進行許可程序？這是否會首先發生？然後我會想像你第二次承購，然後第三次找到設備，這是通常採取的順序嗎？

Yes, I can't I can't answer that mark.

是的，我不能，我無法回答這個問題。

We're not in the development business, but I think certainly getting a permit is part of the part of the process to do you know if it's on any of the situations where you've got options in place and where things might stand on that permitting side is at our first window.

我們不從事開發業務，但我認為獲得許可當然是流程的一部分，您可以知道在任何情況下您是否有適當的選擇以及事情可能會發生什麼情況允許的一方在我們的第一個窗口。

Yes, I don't I don't know where they're at with their permits. They tend to be a little quiet with that stuff. But what I what I do know is that when they when they get it when they get a property under option, let's say they get under option for four years. And as they get closer and closer to the end of the four years. Now bear in mind that they've been making option payments all along the way, right, that they're having to write a check every year to have the property under option. And what they don't want to have happen is they lose that that option because somebody else might pick it up. And in fact, at a higher price. In fact that that happened this past year, we had one expire and we went out and found another partner for the tract and they they put the land under option at a meaningfully higher price. So I think what happens is the pressure builds as you get to the end of the option period, and that's when they want to get all their ducks lined up to pull the trigger. That's typically how waste. But we don't have great insight as to what their what their plans are.

是的，我不知道他們的許可證在哪裡。他們對這些事情往往有點安靜。但我所知道的是，當他們獲得選擇權下的房產時，假設他們擁有四年的選擇權。而隨著四年的時間越來越接近尾聲。現在請記住，他們一直在進行選擇付款，​​對吧，他們每年都必須寫一張支票才能擁有該房產的選擇權。他們不希望發生的是他們失去這個選擇，因為其他人可能會選擇它。事實上，價格更高。事實上，去年就發生了這種情況，我們的土地到期了，我們出去找到了該土地的另一個合作夥伴，他們以明顯更高的價格選擇了土地。所以我認為，當選擇期結束時，壓力就會增大，而那時他們想讓所有的鴨子都排好隊扣動扳機。這通常就是浪費。但我們並不清楚他們的計劃是什麼。

Fair enough. And since we're at kind of on the carbon type of topic, if you guys have anything on the CCS side, which obviously both some Warehouser and Rainier have talked about a fair bit or bit because of location and the such like? Is it likely a less bigger factor for you?

很公平。既然我們討論的是碳類型的話題，你們是否有關於 CCS 方面的任何內容？顯然，一些 Warehouser 和 Rainier 都因為位置等原因談論過一些或一些內容？對你來說這可能是不太重要的因素嗎？

No, I don't. Well, it may be a little bit of a less bigger factor for us given where we're at in Arkansas, as opposed to you know, warehouse has got ground down in Louisiana, Texas, whatnot, but we definitely have projects underway in CCS, but we're under an NDA. So we can't really talk about them, but there's certainly a lot of work going on in that area. And, you know, I would expect over the coming quarters, we'll have we'll have more to say as things things come to fruition.

不，我不。好吧，考慮到我們在阿肯色州的位置，這對我們來說可能是一個不太重要的因素，而不是你知道的，倉庫已經在路易斯安那州、德克薩斯州等地被拆除，但我們肯定有CCS 正在進行的項目，但我們有保密協議。所以我們不能真正談論它們，但該領域確實有很多工作正在進行。而且，你知道，我預計在未來幾個季度，隨著事情取得成果，我們將有更多的話要說。

Okay, super. And then on wood products, you made a comment about being profitable in 1Q. Just wanted to clarify, was that EBITDA was that operating profit? And and does that build in the expectation which you laid out why you'd have it, but that lumber prices would probably be going higher? Or is that at where prices are today?

好吧，超級。然後在木製品方面，您評論稱第一季將實現盈利。只是想澄清一下，EBITDA 是營業利潤嗎？這是否建立在你所闡述的為什麼你會擁有它的預期中，但木材價格可能會更高？或者說這是今天的價格嗎？

Yes.

是的。

No, I wouldn't. I would say it's a it's an EBITDA kind of a number. And yes, I think it's primarily driven by a by improved lumber prices.

不，我不會。我想說這是一個 EBITDA 之類的數字。是的，我認為這主要是由木材價格上漲所推動的。

Okay. And then and I guess kind of well, maybe one more on lumber, if I could. And then you talked about the significant reduction in cash costs related to Waldo. And I think you've talked about the specifics before, but can you remind us how much of that might show up this year? And then how much no additional arm would be still in up in the half for next year?

好的。然後我想還不錯，如果可以的話，也許還可以再做一次木材方面的工作。然後您談到了與 Waldo 相關的現金成本的大幅降低。我想你之前已經討論過具體細節，但你能提醒我們今年可能會出現多少具體細節嗎？那麼，如果沒有額外的手臂，明年的半年仍將上漲多少呢？

Well, I would I would say you know it, we're going to our shipments are going to be down at Waldo this year, and we just have way too much work going on. And I think it's something like 30 million feet, we're going to lose it at Waldo because of the project. So we're not going to see those benefits this year. It's going to be it's going to be next year and really it's going to be Q2 and Q3 that take the hit on shipments will start the year out. Just to give you a sense of that, we're going to start the year out with 51 million feet we expect in Q1 dropping to 41 in Q2 and then 19 million feet in two three and then up to 54 million feet in Q4 by the end of the year, we're only we only expect to be at about 80% of where the mill is going to get to eventually, and it's going to take us until probably Q3 of 25 and to where we've got the mill running at 100% of capacity and the bid group, who's our contractor for this project, they've done a number of mills, as you know, in the South. And they've got a lot of data on the ramp curve for four mills with projects like this brownfield expansions, but it's fairly well documented and surprisingly, the range is pretty tight on on like first quartile versus fourth quartile mill expansions like this. So we expect to be improving, but it's going to take a good a good year to get it fully ironed out.

好吧，我想說你知道，今年我們在 Waldo 的出貨量將會下降，而且我們還有太多的工作要做。我認為大約有 3000 萬英尺，我們將因為這個項目而在 Waldo 失去它。因此，今年我們不會看到這些好處。明年將是第二季和第三季度，今年年初出貨量將受到打擊。為了讓您了解這一點，我們預計今年第一季的總流量將達到5,100 萬英尺，第二季將降至41 萬英尺，然後在兩個三季度內將達到1,900 萬英尺，然後到第四季度將達到5400 萬英尺。到今年年底，我們只期望達到工廠最終目標的 80% 左右，這可能需要我們到 25 年第三季度才能達到工廠運行的水平100% 的產能和投標小組（我們這個項目的承包商），如你所知，他們在南方建造了許多工廠。他們已經獲得了四家工廠的斜坡曲線的大量數據，這些數據涉及像這樣的棕地擴建項目，但它有相當詳細的記錄，令人驚訝的是，像這樣的第一四分位數與第四四分位數工廠擴建的範圍非常窄。因此，我們希望能夠有所改善，但需要一個美好的一年才能完全解決這個問題。

Okay. And then Then lastly, maybe if you could help us a little bit. And so you're you sold some line at 1,700 explained why the price was low given the age class, you bought land at 1900 with a more even type age class. And you know, in the same time you've been talking about how you've been buying back stock in part, it's a big discount to NAV.

好的。最後，也許你能幫我們一點忙。因此，您以 1,700 的價格出售了一些線路，解釋了為什麼考慮到年齡層的價格較低，您在 1900 購買了具有更均勻類型年齡層的土地。你知道，在你一直在談論如何部分回購股票的同時，這對資產淨值來說是一個很大的折扣。

Yes, sort of those 1,700, CAD900 type numbers don't necessarily correspond to kind of how most of us are thinking on NAV. So you sort of explain the 700, maybe talk a little bit about the 1900 and then maybe where you talked about three years ago, maybe 1,700 was representative of an average age of class U.S. timberland holdings. Do you have a perspective on where that would be today?

是的，那些 1,700、CAD900 類型的數字並不一定符合我們大多數人對資產淨值的看法。所以你解釋一下 700，也許談談 1900，然後也許你三年前談到的地方，也許 1,700 代表了美國林地資產的平均年齡。您對今天的情況有什麼看法嗎？

I would I would tell you I would not characterize the acquisition that we made to 16,000 acres in Arkansas for 31 million or 1900 acre. That was not an even age for us. That was a mature forced average age 25. So we will be harvesting those trees, um, for them over the next four to five years from that was a privately negotiated transaction one-on-one. And we think we're going to earn a an 8% IRR on that project and which is unheard of in Timberland M&A circles. And we got that return because it was a privately negotiated transaction just like we did with Luther pretty much like we did with CatchMark pretty much like we did with Deltic way back when So Mark, I think to answer the second part of your question, where do I think timberland values are today? If we broaden even aged track to the market, what do I think we could get. I think it depends upon the individual area, but I'd say probably somewhere between 2,500 to 3,000 an acre, depending upon where it might sit from somewhere in that ZIP Code.

我想告訴你，我不會描述我們以 3,100 萬或 1900 英畝的價格收購阿肯色州 16,000 英畝土地的情況。那對我們來說不是一個均勻的年齡。那是25歲的成熟強制平均年齡。因此，我們將在未來四到五年內為他們採伐這些樹木，這是一項私下一對一協商的交易。我們認為我們將在該項目上獲得 8% 的 IRR，這在 Timberland 併購界是聞所未聞的。我們得到了回報，因為這是一項私下協商的交易，就像我們對Luther 所做的那樣，就像我們對CatchMark 所做的那樣，就像我們對Deltic 所做的那樣，所以Mark，我想回答你問題的第二部分，其中我認為今天的林地價值觀是什麼？如果我們拓寬甚至古老的市場軌道，我認為我們能得到什麼。我認為這取決於各個地區，但我想說可能是每英畝 2,500 到 3,000 之間，這取決於它可能位於該郵遞區號的某個位置。

It, thank you for all the insight.

它，感謝您的所有見解。

Yes, you're welcome.

是的，不客氣。

At this time, I'm showing there are no more questions. I'll now turn the call back over to wean waste.

此時，我表明沒有更多問題了。我現在將把電話轉回斷奶浪費。

Thank you for your questions and your interest in PotlatchDeltic. That concludes our call.

感謝您提出問題以及您對 PotlatchDeltic 的興趣。我們的通話到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。