Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne Wasechek, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.

早安.我叫莎拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時，我歡迎大家參加 PotlatchDeltic 2023 年第三季電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在請副總裁兼財務長 Wayne Wasechek 先生致開幕詞。先生，您可以繼續了。

Good morning, and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer.

早安，歡迎參加 PotlatchDeltic 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的是 PotlatchDeltic 總裁兼執行長 Eric Cremers。

This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release on our presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com.

本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們新聞稿中的簡報幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中關於與這些前瞻性聲明相關的風險的警告聲明。另請注意，非 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表可在我們的網站 www.potlatchdeltic.com 上找到。

I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our third quarter results and outlook.

我會將電話轉給埃里克徵求一些意見，然後我將回顧我們第三季的業績和前景。

Thank you, Wayne. Looking at our third quarter results, we reported total adjusted EBITDDA of $56 million after the market closed yesterday. These solid results reflect improved financial performance across all of our business segments compared to the second quarter. .

謝謝你，韋恩。看看我們第三季的業績，昨天收盤後，我們公佈的調整後 EBITDDA 總額為 5,600 萬美元。這些穩健的業績反映出我們所有業務部門的財務表現均較第二季有所改善。 。

Our Wood Products segment's adjusted EBITDDA was $15 million in the third quarter compared to $12 million in the second quarter. Slightly higher average lumber prices were the primary driver of the improved results. We have seen a steady decline in the composite lumber price since peaking in late July, driven by several ongoing headwinds, including higher interest rates, housing affordability challenges and declining consumer confidence.

我們的木製品部門第三季調整後的 EBITDDA 為 1,500 萬美元，而第二季為 1,200 萬美元。平均木材價格略高是業績改善的主要動力。我們看到，在利率上升、住房負擔能力挑戰和消費者信心下降等一些持續不利因素的推動下，複合木材價格自 7 月下旬達到高峰以來穩步下降。

We believe lumber prices are starting to bottom out as the lumber composite price hovers in the upper $300 per 1,000 board foot range. We continue to remain optimistic about long-term housing fundamentals that drive demand for our business, but overall macroeconomic concerns remain.

我們認為，隨著木材綜合價格徘徊在每 1,000 板英尺 300 美元的上方，木材價格開始觸底。我們繼續對推動我們業務需求的長期住房基本面保持樂觀，但整體宏觀經濟擔憂仍然存在。

For the third quarter, we shipped 276 million board feet of lumber which was slightly below the volume we shipped in Q2, but 11 million feet more than we shipped in Q3 of last year. We remain focused on executing our capital project plan, including our $131 million project to modernize and expand our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill. We continue to hit our major milestones on the Waldo project, which is on track to be completed by the end of 2024.

第三季度，我們發貨了 2.76 億板英尺的木材，略低於第二季度的發貨量，但比去年第三季度的發貨量多了 1100 萬英尺。我們仍然專注於執行我們的資本項目計劃，包括 1.31 億美元的項目，用於現代化和擴大阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠。我們繼續實現 Waldo 專案的主要里程碑，該專案預計於 2024 年底完成。

The project will increase the mills annual capacity by 85 million board feet and significantly reduce the mill's cash costs. The existing mill will continue to operate during the project with approximately 3 weeks of downtime expected in 2024 to tie in the new equipment. Our Timberlands segment generated adjusted EBITDDA of $42 million in the third quarter compared to $29 million in the second quarter.

該項目將使工廠的年產能增加 8,500 萬板英尺，並顯著降低工廠的現金成本。現有工廠將在專案期間繼續運營，預計 2024 年將停工約 3 週，以安裝新設備。我們的 Timberlands 部門第三季調整後 EBITDDA 為 4,200 萬美元，而第二季為 2,900 萬美元。

We harvested 2 million tons in the third quarter, achieving the high end of our Q3 forecast harvest range. Dryer logging conditions combined with good execution by our team, resulted in setting a record for quarterly volume in our Southern Timberlands business. Southern sawlog and pulpwood markets remained stable during the third quarter.

第三季我們收穫了 200 萬噸，達到了第三季預測收穫範圍的上限。乾燥機採伐條件與我們團隊的良好執行力相結合，使我們的 Southern Timberlands 業務創下了季度產量記錄。第三季南方鋸木和紙漿市場保持穩定。

Our real estate segment contributed $14 million in adjusted EBITDDA to our third quarter results. On the rural side of the business, we sold 3,300 acres at over $3,500 per acre. We continue to see strong demand for rural properties at significant premiums to core timberland values. Additionally, our real estate team capitalized on our recent stratification of the CatchMark timberlands as nearly half of our rural business' quarterly performance was attributable to the acquired CatchMark portfolio.

我們的房地產部門為第三季業績貢獻了 1,400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDDA。在農村方面，我們以每英畝超過 3,500 美元的價格出售了 3,300 英畝土地。我們繼續看到對農村房產的強勁需求，其核心林地價值顯著溢價。此外，我們的房地產團隊利用了我們最近對 CatchMark 林地的分層，因為我們的鄉村業務季度業績近一半歸功於收購的 CatchMark 投資組合。

On the development side of our real estate business, we sold 32 residential lots in our Chenal Valley master-planned community at an average price of $89,000 per lot and completed a commercial land sale for $1.4 million. We have had good absorption on our lot offerings for the majority of this year, but we are starting to see modest signs of slowing by regional builders in Chenal Valley on the take-up of our new lot offerings.

在房地產業務的開發方面，我們以每塊平均價格 89,000 美元的價格出售了 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區的 32 個住宅用地，並以 140 萬美元的價格完成了商業土地銷售。今年的大部分時間裡，我們對我們的地塊產品的吸收都很好，但我們開始看到切納爾谷地區建築商對我們新地塊產品的接受度有所放緩的跡象。

Turning to natural climate solution opportunities. We continue to build momentum in this area. Our team is making good progress on our carbon credit project on approximately 50,000 acres of low-lying hardwood timberlands in the South. We are currently working through the certification process with a very reputable firm to establish high-quality carbon credits.

轉向自然氣候解決方案機會。我們繼續在這一領域建立勢頭。我們的團隊在南部約 50,000 英畝的低窪硬木林地的碳信用項目中取得了良好進展。我們目前正在與一家信譽良好的公司合作完成認證流程，以建立高品質的碳信用。

We anticipate completing the process around the end of the first quarter of next year, with submission to the market immediately following the certification and envision having the credit sold by midyear. We are also exploring other NCS opportunities to supply mill residuals and pulpwood develop manufacturers, bioenergy providers and biofuel producers.

我們預計在明年第一季末左右完成該過程，並在獲得認證後立即提交市場，並預計在年中之前出售該信用額度。我們也正在探索其他 NCS 機會，向工廠殘渣和紙漿木材開發製造商、生物能源供應商和生物燃料生產商提供供應。

As for solar deals, we continue to see strong interest from solar farm developers in the South. We now have nearly $200 million on a net present value basis of solar land sale and lease options under contract, representing less than 2% of our timberland acreage. In fact, since last quarter, we have executed 4 new solar option contracts with a net present value of $70 million in the aggregate. We believe all of these natural climate solutions opportunities will increase the demand for our rural land and drive our timberland values higher.

至於太陽能交易，我們繼續看到南方太陽能發電場開發商的濃厚興趣。目前，我們根據合約擁有近 2 億美元的太陽能土地出售和租賃選項的淨現值，占我們林地面積的不到 2%。事實上，自上季以來，我們已經執行了 4 份新的太陽能選擇權合約，淨現值總計 7,000 萬美元。我們相信所有這些自然氣候解決方案機會將增加對我們農村土地的需求，並推高我們的林地價值。

Shifting to housing. Demand for new single-family residential construction has remained resilient despite an elevated mortgage rate environment. With a historically low level of existing home inventory for sale in the U.S. prospective homebuyers are looking at purchasing a new home versus an existing home, though down from last year's $1.6 million unit run rate, housing starts have hovered around $1.4 million units this year. While new residential home demand has been relatively stable over the course of this year, persistently high mortgage rates are taking a toll on homebuilders confidence.

轉向住房。儘管抵押貸款利率上升，但對新單戶住宅建設的需求仍保持彈性。由於美國現有待售房屋庫存水準處於歷史低位，因此潛在購屋者正在考慮購買新房而不是現有房屋，儘管與去年160 萬美元的單位運行率相比有所下降，但今年新屋開工率一直徘徊在140 萬美元左右。儘管今年以來新住宅需求相對穩定，但持續居高不下的抵押貸款利率正在損害房屋建築商的信心。

After increasing for 7 months in a row, beginning in January of this year, homebuilder sentiment has reversed course and trended downward over the last couple of months. Current housing headwinds, including higher mortgage rates, which are approaching 8%, housing affordability and uncertainty on the overall direction of the U.S. economy are weighing on demand. But we continue to remain positive on longer-term housing fundamentals, which drive demand for our business. We believe an underlying shortage of housing stock, which some estimate to be between $2 million and $4 million units and favorable demographics will provide positive tailwinds to the housing market.

自今年 1 月開始連續 7 個月上漲後，房屋建築商信心在過去幾個月中出現逆轉並呈下降趨勢。目前的房地產逆風，包括抵押貸款利率上升（接近8%）、住房負擔能力以及美國經濟總體方向的不確定性，正在對需求造成壓力。但我們繼續對長期住房基本面保持樂觀，這推動了對我們業務的需求。我們認為，住房存量的潛在短缺（有人估計住房存量在 200 萬至 400 萬美元之間）以及有利的人口結構將為住房市場提供積極的推動力。

Turning to the repair and remodel segment. Demand in this area has been strong, and we expect it to remain solid. We believe that in this higher interest rate environment, the repair and model market is being supported by homeowners that are staying in their existing homes and renovating versus moving into a new home and aging housing stock, remote work and high home equity levels also support the R&R market. No doubt, high interest rates and following existing home sales will temper repair and remodel spending over the coming year, but we remain optimistic in this market segment. In fact, our home center takeaway continues to remain strong and is up 15% year-to-date over last year.

轉向維修和改造部分。該領域的需求一直強勁，我們預計將保持穩定。我們認為，在這種較高的利率環境下，維修和模型市場得到了住在現有房屋和翻新的房主的支持，而不是搬進新房，而老化的房屋存量、遠端工作和高房屋淨值水平也支持了休閒與娛樂市場。毫無疑問，高利率和後續的現房銷售將抑制來年的維修和改造支出，但我們對該細分市場仍持樂觀態度。事實上，我們的家居中心外賣繼續保持強勁勢頭，今年迄今比去年增長了 15%。

Moving to capital allocation. We repurchased 283,000 shares for $13 million during the third quarter and repurchased an additional 264,000 shares for $12 million since the end of September. All of these shares were repurchased for an average of $45 per share under our 10b5-1 plan. We have an additional $125 million remaining on our existing repurchase authorization. We follow a disciplined capital allocation strategy, including when we issue shares to acquire strategic assets and when we repurchase shares.

轉向資本配置。我們在第三季以 1,300 萬美元回購了 283,000 股股票，自 9 月底以來又以 1,200 萬美元回購了 264,000 股股票。根據我們的 10b5-1 計劃，所有這些股票均以平均每股 45 美元的價格回購。我們現有的回購授權還剩餘 1.25 億美元。我們遵循嚴格的資本配置策略，包括何時發行股票以收購策略資產以及何時回購股票。

For example, when we entered into the CatchMark merger in May of 2022, we utilized our shares valued at $56 per share to fund the acquisition. Since we announced the merger, we have repurchased 1.8 million shares for $80 million at an average price of $45 per share, which we believe is well below our estimated net asset value. We continually evaluate all of our capital allocation opportunities to grow shareholder value over time, and we will not act hastily towards any of our options and will continue to remain disciplined and opportunistic in our approach.

例如，當我們在 2022 年 5 月進行 CatchMark 合併時，我們使用每股 56 美元的股票為收購提供資金。自從我們宣布合併以來，我們已經以每股 45 美元的平均價格以 8000 萬美元的價格回購了 180 萬股股票，我們認為這遠低於我們估計的資產淨值。我們不斷評估所有資本配置機會，以隨著時間的推移增加股東價值，我們不會倉促採取任何選擇，並將繼續在我們的方法中保持紀律和機會主義。

Regarding environmental, social and governance reporting, in addition to the publication of our fourth annual ESG report in May, we issued our second annual carbon and climate report in early October. Our carbon and climate report highlights, among other items, the potential impact of various climate change scenarios on our Southeast timberlands and our Lake state sourcing areas. PotlatchDeltic is committed to social and environmental responsibility and strong governance practices and we are proud of our progress and the initiatives we have underway in these areas.

在環境、社會和治理報告方面，除了五月發布的第四份年度ESG報告外，我們還在十月初發布了第二份年度碳和氣候報告。我們的碳和氣候報告強調了各種氣候變遷情境對我們東南部林地和湖州採購區的潛在影響。 PotlatchDeltic 致力於社會和環境責任以及強有力的治理實踐，我們對我們在這些領域取得的進步和採取的舉措感到自豪。

To wrap up my comments, PotlatchDeltic continues to be very well positioned with an investment-grade balance sheet and a portfolio of high-quality assets. We will continue to maintain a disciplined and opportunistic capital allocation strategy as we seek to maximize shareholder value over the long term.

作為我的評論的總結，PotlatchDeltic 憑藉投資等級資產負債表和優質資產組合繼續處於非常有利的地位。我們將繼續保持紀律嚴明和機會主義的資本配置策略，尋求長期股東價值最大化。

I will now turn it over to Wayne to discuss our third quarter results and our outlook.

我現在將把它交給韋恩討論我們的第三季業績和前景。

Thank you, Eric. Starting with Page 4 of the slides. Adjusted EBITDDA was $56 million in the third quarter compared to $46 million in the second quarter. The quarter-over-quarter increase in EBITDDA was primarily driven by seasonally higher harvest volumes and improved Indexed Idaho sawlog prices. I will now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our third quarter results. Information for our Timberlands segment is displayed on Slides 5 through 7. The segment's adjusted EBITDDA increased from $29 million in the second quarter to $42 million in the third quarter.

謝謝你，埃里克。從投影片的第 4 頁開始。第三季調整後 EBITDDA 為 5,600 萬美元，而第二季為 4,600 萬美元。 EBITDDA 環比增長主要是由於季節性採伐量增加和愛達荷州鋸木指數價格上漲所推動的。我現在將回顧我們的每個營運部門，並為我們的第三季業績提供更多資訊。我們的 Timberlands 部門的資訊顯示在幻燈片 5 至 7 中。該部門調整後的 EBITDDA 從第二季的 2,900 萬美元增加到第三季的 4,200 萬美元。

We harvested 377,000 tons of sawlogs in Idaho in the third quarter. This volume is seasonally higher than the 319,000 tons that we harvested in the second quarter. Our Idaho sawlog prices increased 12% on a per ton basis in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The increase in sawlog prices was the result of higher prices for index sawlogs. Our index prices reset on a 1-month lag, which means the third quarter index prices reflect slightly higher lumber prices, primarily in June and July. In the South, we harvested 1.6 million tons in the third quarter compared to 1.3 million tons in the second quarter. Our Southern sawlog prices in the third quarter were flat compared to the second quarter.

第三季我們在愛達荷州收穫了 377,000 噸鋸木。這一產量季節性高於我們第二季收穫的 319,000 噸。與第二季相比，第三季愛達荷州鋸木價格每噸上漲 12%。鋸材價格上漲是由於指數鋸材價格上漲的結果。我們的指數價格滯後 1 個月重置，這意味著第三季指數價格反映了木材價格的略微上漲，主要是在 6 月和 7 月。在南方，我們第三季收穫了 160 萬噸，而第二季為 130 萬噸。第三季我們南方鋸木價格與第二季持平。

Turning to Wood Products on Slides 8 and 9. Adjusted EBITDDA increased to $15 million in the third quarter from $12 million in the second quarter. Our average lumber price realizations increased 1% from 476 per 1,000 board feet in the second quarter to $481 per 1,000 board feet in the third quarter. Our average lumber prices were consistent with the first 2 months of the third quarter before declining approximately 3% in September.

轉向幻燈片 8 和 9 上的木製品。調整後的 EBITDDA 從第二季的 1200 萬美元增加到第三季的 1500 萬美元。我們的平均木材價格實現增長了 1%，從第二季度的每 1,000 板英尺 476 美元增加到第三季的每 1,000 板英尺 481 美元。我們的平均木材價格與第三季前 2 個月一致，然後在 9 月下降了約 3%。

Our average lumber price realizations per thousand board feet were 486 in July, 486 in August and 472 in September. Lumber shipments were 276 million board feet in the third quarter compared to 280 million board feet in the second quarter. Our shipments were slightly lower in the third quarter, primarily as a result of the timing of in-transit shipments versus the second quarter. Higher lumber realizations and lower log costs on a per unit basis drove improved margins.

7 月每千板英尺的平均木材價格為 486，8 月為 486，9 月為 472。第三季木材出貨量為 2.76 億板英尺，而第二季為 2.8 億板英尺。我們第三季的出貨量略有下降，主要是因為與第二季相比在途出貨的時間安排所致。更高的木材產量和更低的單位原木成本推動了利潤率的提高。

Shifting to real estate on Slides 10 and 11. The segment's adjusted EBITDDA was $14 million in the third quarter compared to $12 million in the second quarter. The increase was due to the sale of more rural acres compared to the prior quarter. Our real estate team did a good job of bringing CatchMark properties to market following the recent completion of a stratification of the portfolio.

轉向幻燈片 10 和 11 上的房地產。第三季該部門調整後的 EBITDDA 為 1,400 萬美元，而第二季為 1,200 萬美元。這一增長是由於與上一季相比出售了更多的農村土地。在最近完成投資組合分層後，我們的房地產團隊在將 CatchMark 房地產推向市場方面做得很好。

The sale of CatchMark Parcels contributed to nearly half our Rural business' performance this quarter. EBITDDA generated by our real estate development business was lower in the third quarter compared to the second quarter due to a decrease in residential lot sales and fewer commercial acres sold at our Chenal Valley master plan community.

CatchMark 地塊的銷售為本季農村業務業績貢獻了近一半。與第二季相比，第三季我們的房地產開發業務產生的 EBITDDA 較低，原因是住宅地塊銷售下降以及我們的 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區出售的商業面積減少。

During the third quarter, we closed on the sale of 32 residential lots at a lower average price than in the second quarter due to a different mix of lot price points. Also, we recorded over $1 million in commercial revenue in the third quarter compared to almost $5 million in the second quarter.

第三季度，由於地塊價格點的不同組合，我們以低於第二季度的平均價格完成了 32 個住宅地塊的銷售。此外，我們第三季的商業收入超過 100 萬美元，而第二季的商業收入接近 500 萬美元。

Turning to capital structure, which is summarized on Slide 12. Our total liquidity at the end of September was $602 million. This amount includes $303 million of cash on our balance sheet, as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. We plan to refinance the $40 million of debt that is scheduled to mature in December of this year. We have effectively locked in the refinance rate at approximately 2.5% after patronage credits from lenders and using a portion of our existing forward starting interest rate swaps.

轉向資本結構，投影片 12 對此進行了總結。截至 9 月底，我們的總流動資金為 6.02 億美元。這筆金額包括我們資產負債表上的 3.03 億美元現金，以及我們未提取的左輪手槍的可用資金。我們計劃為定於今年 12 月到期的 4,000 萬美元債務進行再融資。在獲得貸款人的惠顧信貸並使用我們現有的遠期起始利率掉期的一部分後，我們已有效地將再融資利率鎖定在約 2.5%。

Utilization of our forward starting interest rate swaps allows us to refinance this debt at well below current market rates and lower our annual cash interest by approximately $500,000 beginning in December. After this refinancing, we will still have $200 million notional afford swaps to deploy to keep our future borrowing costs low.

利用我們的遠期起始利率掉期，我們能夠以遠低於當前市場利率的價格為這筆債務進行再融資，並從 12 月開始將我們的年度現金利息降低約 50 萬美元。此次再融資後，我們仍將有 2 億美元的名目利率掉期可供部署，以維持未來的低借貸成本。

We repurchased 283,000 shares at $45 per share for a total of $13 million in the third quarter. Additionally, we continue to repurchase shares under our 10b5-1 share repurchase plan after the quarter ended. So far in the fourth quarter, we have repurchased 264,000 shares at $45 per share for a total of $12 million. Therefore, year-to-date, we have repurchased 556,000 shares for a total of $25 million, which leaves us with $125 million remaining on our $200 million repurchase authorization. Capital expenditures were $27 million in the third quarter. That amount includes real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement and excludes timberland acquisitions.

第三季度，我們以每股 45 美元的價格回購了 283,000 股股票，總計 1,300 萬美元。此外，我們在季度結束後繼續根據 10b5-1 股票回購計畫回購股票。第四季到目前為止，我們已以每股 45 美元的價格回購了 264,000 股股票，總金額為 1,200 萬美元。因此，今年迄今為止，我們已經回購了 556,000 股股票，總價值為 2,500 萬美元，這使得我們在 2 億美元的回購授權上還剩下 1.25 億美元。第三季資本支出為2700萬美元。該金額包括房地產開發支出，該支出包含在我們現金流量表中的營運現金中，但不包括林地收購。

For the full year, we are planning to spend $135 million to $140 million, excluding any potential acquisitions. Our CapEx estimate includes approximately $74 million for the Waldo, Arkansas sawmill modernization expansion project. During the third quarter, we finalized our Ola sawmill fire insurance claim with our insurance carriers for a total of $89 million, net of a $2 million deductible. Our insurance claim covered both property replacement and business interruption at the sawmill. Finalization of the claim resulted in the recognition of the remaining $16 million of insurance recoveries during the third quarter. As a reminder, we recognized $50 million of the settlement prior to 2023 with the remaining $39 million recorded this year.

我們計劃全年支出 1.35 億至 1.4 億美元，不包括任何潛在的收購。我們的資本支出估計包括用於阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠現代化擴建項目的約 7400 萬美元。第三季度，我們與保險公司最終確定了 Ola 鋸木廠火災保險索賠，總額為 8,900 萬美元，扣除 200 萬美元的免賠額。我們的保險索賠包括鋸木廠的財產重置和業務中斷。索賠的最終確定導致第三季剩餘 1,600 萬美元的保險賠償得到確認。提醒一下，我們在 2023 年之前確認了 5,000 萬美元的和解金，今年記錄了剩餘的 3,900 萬美元。

We'll now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on Slide 13. We expect to harvest 1.8 million to 1.9 million tons in our Timberland segment in the fourth quarter. Harvest volumes in the North are planned to be lower in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, as our team was able to pull forward a portion of our planned annual harvest volumes to earlier in the year. We expect Northern sawlog prices to decline about 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter, reflecting lower index sawlog prices and seasonally heavier logs.

我們現在將提供一些高級展望評論。詳細資訊請參閱投影片 13。我們預計第四季 Timberland 部門的產量將達到 180 萬噸至 190 萬噸。與第三季相比，北方第四季的收穫量預計較低，因為我們的團隊能夠將部分年度計畫收穫量提前到今年稍早。我們預計第四季度北方鋸木價格將下降約 10% 至 15%，反映鋸木指數價格下降和季節性原木較重。

In the South, we plan to harvest approximately 1.5 million tons in the fourth quarter. We expect our Southern sawlog prices in the fourth quarter to be flat to the third quarter. In our Wood Products segment, we plan to ship 270 million to 280 million board feet of lumber in the fourth quarter. Benchmark prices for lumber have continued to trend downwards since the end of the third quarter.

在南方，我們計劃在第四季收穫約 150 萬噸。我們預計第四季南方鋸木價格將與第三季持平。在我們的木製品部門，我們計劃在第四季度運送 2.7 億至 2.8 億板英尺的木材。自第三季末以來，木材基準價格持續下跌。

Our average lumber price thus far in the fourth quarter is approximately 12% lower than our third quarter average lumber price. This is based on shipments of approximately 105 million board feet of lumber.

迄今為止，我們第四季的平均木材價格比第三季的平均木材價格低約 12%。這是基於約 1.05 億板英尺木材的出貨量。

Moving to real estate. We expect to sell approximately 6,800 acres of rural land in the fourth quarter. As for residential lot sales, we are seeing indications of softening in the new residential construction market in Chenal Valley. We are reducing our anticipated number of lots approximately 37% in the fourth quarter and approximately 135 for the full year of 2023. Additional real estate details are provided on the slide.

轉向房地產。我們預計第四季將出售約6,800英畝農村土地。至於住宅地塊銷售，我們看到陳納爾谷新住宅建設市場出現疲軟跡象。我們預計第四季度的地塊數量將減少約 37%，2023 年全年的地塊數量將減少約 135 塊。幻燈片中提供了更多房地產詳細資訊。

Overall, we anticipate our total adjusted EBITDDA to be lower in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. This is based on the expectations of lower lumber and Indexed Idaho sawlog prices. Looking forward, high mortgage rates and macroeconomic uncertainty will continue to challenge the housing market in the near term. However, we remain bullish on longer-term housing fundamentals and believe we are well positioned to continue growing shareholder value over the long term.

總體而言，我們預計第四季度調整後的 EBITDDA 總額將低於第三季。這是基於木材和愛達荷州鋸木指數價格下降的預期。展望未來，高抵押貸款利率和宏觀經濟的不確定性將在短期內繼續挑戰房地產市場。然而，我們仍然看好長期住房基本面，並相信我們有能力繼續長期成長股東價值。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Sarah, I would now like to open the call to Q&A.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。莎拉，我現在想開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自花旗研究部的 Anthony Pettinari。

Good morning. It looks like Southern sawlog realizations were flat from 2Q to 3Q. And I think you expect kind of the same in 4Q. Was this like fairly consistent across the Southern portfolio? Or did you see relative strength in Arkansas versus the CatchMark regions? Or is there any kind of submarkets where you'd flag any supply differences, maybe sawmill capacity adds, reductions, or any other kind of drivers?

早安.看起來南方鋸木的實現量從第二季到第三季持平。我認為您對第四季的預期也差不多。這在南方投資組合中是否相當一致？或者您看到阿肯色州與 CatchMark 地區相比的相對優勢？或者是否存在任何類型的子市場，您會標記任何供應差異，可能是鋸木廠產能增加、減少或任何其他類型的驅動因素？

No. I think it was -- from region to region, it was generally pretty consistent quarter-over-quarter. We saw -- going back to earlier in the year, we did see a little bit of a difference between our coastal or Southeast market, where that tends to be -- that's a more tensioned market. And with that, we saw prices decline a little bit more earlier in the year compared to our Gulf South region. But since earlier in the year, those have really kind of flattened out and remain fairly consistent.

不，我認為從一個地區到另一個地區，每個季度的情況總體上相當一致。我們看到——回到今年早些時候，我們確實看到我們的沿海或東南市場之間存在一些差異，而這往往是——這是一個更緊張的市場。因此，與海灣南部地區相比，我們今年稍早的價格下跌幅度更大。但自今年稍早以來，這些情況確實已經趨於平緩，並且保持相當一致。

Okay. And then just shifting to Wood Products. Lumber has been under $400 for maybe over a month now. Just wondering if you could talk about maybe dealer inventory levels, maybe willingness to restock at these prices? And any capacity response that maybe you're seeing from competitors in regions that you operate in?

好的。然後轉向木製品。木材價格可能已經一個多月低於 400 美元了。只是想知道您是否可以談談經銷商的庫存水平，是否願意以這些價格補貨？您可能從您所在地區的競爭對手那裡看到了任何產能反應？

Yes, Anthony, I'll take that one. This is Eric. I think the way I would describe inventories is that they continue to be at really low levels. I think dealers are very nervous in this environment when you've seen interest rates shoot up the way that they have shot up over the past month or 2. You see a war in Ukraine continue to linger and how you see this Middle East flare up. I think people are just really nervous about this macroeconomic environment. And consequently, they don't want to have high levels of inventory.

是的，安東尼，我要那個。這是埃里克。我認為我描述庫存的方式是它們仍然處於非常低的水平。我認為，當你看到利率像過去一兩個月那樣飆升時，交易商在這種環境下會非常緊張。你會看到烏克蘭的戰爭繼續揮之不去，中東的局勢也愈演愈烈。 。我認為人們對當前的宏觀經濟環境感到非常緊張。因此，他們不希望庫存水準過高。

So I think inventory levels are relatively low levels. Now the answer to your second question, which is are we seeing a capacity response. We saw capacity come out of the market earlier this year. There's probably 1.5 billion board feet that were permanent closures early this year and then maybe another 1.5 billion that were like temporary curtailments. I think there wasn't a pause as lumber markets recovered through the summer. And now we're back below 400, as you noted. And there's -- a lot of pundits are forecasting or estimating that B.C. mills are losing a lot of money at these price levels, especially given the duty they have to pay to get their lumber into the U.S. market. I have not seen any announcements of late but we're starting to enter the slow season. I'm guessing the pressure is building. And most people think the mills in B.C. are underwater. So we'll see how it plays out.

所以我認為庫存水準相對較低。現在回答你的第二個問題，即我們是否看到產能反應。今年早些時候，我們看到產能退出市場。今年年初，可能有 15 億板英尺被永久關閉，然後可能還有 15 億板英尺被暫時削減。我認為整個夏季木材市場的復甦並沒有暫停。正如您所指出的，現在我們又回到了 400 以下。許多專家都在預測或估計 BC 省。在這樣的價格水平上，工廠正在損失大量資金，特別是考慮到他們必須繳納關稅才能將木材進入美國市場。我最近沒有看到任何公告，但我們開始進入淡季。我猜壓力正在增加。大多數人認為 BC 省的工廠在水下。所以我們會看看結果如何。

Your next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ketan Mamtora。

Maybe first question, just segueing off the last question in terms of inventory. Eric, what are you seeing in terms of the European lumber inventories that are still sitting out there along the Eastern Seaboard. And do you have a sense in terms of the level of imports we might see in the coming months given where lumber prices are.

也許是第一個問題，只是在庫存方面延續最後一個問題。艾瑞克，您對東海岸沿線的歐洲木材庫存有何看法？鑑於木材價格，您對未來幾個月我們可能看到的進口水平有了解嗎？

Yes, Ketan, I -- so we don't have direct insight into what those European import inventories look like. And the data is always a little bit stale. But I do look at it very closely, in fact, because I think lumber prices were under enormous pressure early this year when we saw a surge of European imports back in January. But what I can tell you is that year-to-date through August, imports are down 2% comparing Q2 of this year to Q1 this year, imports are now down 23%. And if I look at Q2 this year versus Q2 last year, imports are down 12%. So I think it's pretty clear that at these prices, European imports are set to decline.

是的，科坦，我——所以我們無法直接了解歐洲進口庫存的情況。而且數據總是有點陳舊。但事實上，我確實非常仔細地研究了這個問題，因為我認為今年年初，當我們在一月份看到歐洲進口量激增時，木材價格承受著巨大的壓力。但我可以告訴你的是，今年迄今為止到8月份，進口量與今年第二季相比今年第一季下降了2%，目前進口量下降了23%。如果我看看今年第二季與去年第二季相比，進口量下降了 12%。因此，我認為很明顯，以目前的價格，歐洲進口將會下降。

I'm guessing that they're down 0.5 billion board feet full year '23 versus full year '22 and then I would expect that we'll see even fewer imports next year as the whole idea of less Russian, Belorussian, Ukrainian wood flowing into Europe. That was, by the way, roughly 10% of Europe's lumber supply was coming from those 3 countries. And that -- those exports out of those 3 countries to Europe, restrictions really went into place in kind of the back half of 2022. And so I think there's going to continue to be fewer imports into the U.S. because more European production is going to stay within Europe as we get into next year. So I think the outlook for European imports is on the downside.

我猜測，與 22 年全年相比，23 年全年下降了 5 億板英尺，然後我預計明年的進口量會更少，因為俄羅斯、白俄羅斯和烏克蘭木材流動量減少。進入歐洲。順便說一句，歐洲大約 10% 的木材供應來自這三個國家。從這三個國家向歐洲的出口，限制實際上在 2022 年下半年開始實施。因此，我認為美國的進口將繼續減少，因為更多的歐洲產量將增加當我們進入明年時，留在歐洲。所以我認為歐洲進口的前景是下行的。

Got it. That's helpful. And Eric, just one more on that. Do you think we worked through the inventory that was sitting there at the ports? Or we still have some ways to go there?

知道了。這很有幫助。埃里克，再講一個。你認為我們處理過港口的庫存了嗎？或者我們還有一些路可以到達那裡？

Yes. I would -- I think we have worked through those inventories, Ketan, again, I don't have direct insight, but the way SPF prices spiked this past summer when the wildfires really hit Canada and I think those European imports, their primary competition was Canadian SPF. I think that would cause me to think that those imports have been pulled down, and we're not -- is plentiful to compete with Canadian lumber. Again, I don't feel right, it's just kind of trying to connect some dots here.

是的。我想——我想我們已經處理了這些庫存，Ketan，我沒有直接的洞察力，但是去年夏天山火真正襲擊加拿大時 SPF 價格飆升，我認為那些歐洲進口產品是他們的主要競爭對手是加拿大SPF 。我認為這會讓我認為這些進口量已經減少，而我們的進口量卻沒有——足以與加拿大木材競爭。再說一遍，我感覺不太對勁，我只是想把這裡的一些點連結起來。

Got it. No, that's helpful. And then just switching to timberlands. And when I look at your southern pulpwood prices as well, being relatively kind of stable yet some of the data that's been reported point to pretty sharp drops in recent quarters. Can you talk about kind of what you guys are seeing out there. And obviously, we've heard kind of weakness on the packaging side. But as you kind of look at your wood baskets, can you talk to what trends you are seeing?

知道了。不，這很有幫助。然後就切換到林地。當我查看南方紙漿木材價格時，相對穩定，但報告的一些數據表明最近幾季大幅下跌。能談談你們在外面看到的情況嗎？顯然，我們已經聽到了包裝上的弱點。但是當您觀察您的木籃時，您能談談您看到的趨勢嗎？

Yes. Ketan, I think -- this is Wayne. On the trending side, certainly between sawlog and pulpwood, I think certainly a little more softness on the pulpwood with the pulp and paper markets just where they are. We've seen some economic downtime at mills or taking -- having quotas but that's kind of -- that trend is, I think that softness is we're still seeing that in the market. But having said that, we're able to move tons and still find the demand.

是的。我想科坦——這是韋恩。在趨勢方面，尤其是在鋸木和紙漿木材之間，我認為隨著紙漿和紙張市場的發展，紙漿木材肯定會更加柔軟。我們已經看到工廠出現一些經濟停頓或採取——有配額，但那是一種——趨勢是，我認為我們仍然在市場上看到這種疲軟。但話雖如此，我們能夠在運輸大量貨物的同時仍然找到需求。

We're expecting on the pulpwood side, probably pricing. Our outlook is flat to maybe slightly down for us. But part of that is a mix, little bit of that is hardwood. So seasonally, we typically have more hardwood in the mix in Q3 versus Q4. So you may see a very slight mix impact in Q4, but really prices we think are holding. And I would say we're slightly a little more optimistic on the pulp side just from what we saw earlier in the year. But -- and I think that still is just keeping pricing probably fairly flat.

我們預期紙漿材方面可能會定價。我們的前景持平甚至略有下降。但其中一部分是混合木，一小部分是硬木。因此，從季節性來看，我們通常在第三季度比第四季度混合使用更多的硬木。因此，您可能會在第四季度看到非常輕微的混合影響，但我們認為價格確實保持不變。我想說的是，從今年早些時候的情況來看，我們對紙漿方面的態度稍微樂觀一些。但是——我認為這仍然只是保持定價可能相當平穩。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Jerry, just one quick question for you on lumber prices. You mentioned, I believe, I heard you correctly when you said that you got your confidence that lumber prices may be bottoming here. Are there any particular metrics that you follow and you look at that give you that confidence that lumber prices have dropped.

傑瑞，我想問您一個關於木材價格的簡單問題。你提到，我相信，當你說你有信心木材價格可能會觸底時，我沒聽錯。您遵循和查看的任何特定指標是否讓您確信木材價格已經下跌。

Yes. This is Eric, Mike. I don't think there's any 1 metric that we look at. I -- this is like a mosaic, and I'm trying to put all the pieces of the puzzle together. And in my mind, I know there's a lot of mills in B.C. that are losing money. There's likely to be a supply response, who knows if that will happen. It's up to them to decide. But that's one factor.

是的。這是埃里克，麥克。我認為我們沒有考慮任何 1 個指標。我——這就像一幅馬賽克，我試圖將拼圖的所有碎片拼湊在一起。在我看來，我知道 BC 省有很多工廠。那些正在賠錢的人。供應可能會做出反應，誰知道是否會發生。由他們決定。但這是一個因素。

I think another factor is, of late, the housing market has not completely collapsed. We've gone down from $1.6 million to $1.4 million which is not a precipitous drop. This is not in 2009. That's 200,000 starts. And we're also seeing a bit of a mix shift here over towards single family, which, as you know, single-family uses a lot more lumber than multifamily.

我認為另一個因素是，最近房地產市場還沒有完全崩盤。我們從 160 萬美元減少到 140 萬美元，這並不是一個急劇的下降。這不是 2009 年。那是 20 萬次啟動。我們也看到這裡出現了一些向單一家庭的混合轉變，如您所知，單一家庭比多戶家庭使用更多的木材。

So I think about that. I also don't think R&R markets are going to collapse either. When we were in COVID, everybody was buying lots of stuff, lots of stuff in boxes by the way. But after COVID, there's been a swing back to services. And I think that's now starting to play itself out. And people are now going to go back and look at their house and say they've got an enormous amount of home equity.

所以我想到了這一點。我也不認為 R&R 市場會崩盤。當我們處於新冠疫情時期時，每個人都買了很多東西，順便說一句，很多東西都是裝在盒子裡的。但在新冠疫情之後，人們開始轉向服務。我認為這現在開始發揮作用。人們現在會回去看看他們的房子，並說他們擁有大量的房屋淨值。

They can't go buy a new home because there's very -- or an existing home because there's very little inventory out there. They got good balance sheets. They got good labor market prospects. I just think it's natural that R&R is going to hang in there. It may not be so much on the Pro side. It may be more on the DIY side with these higher interest rates. But I think R&R markets are hanging there just fine. So getting back to your question, there's not any 1 metric that I look at. We look at many, many different factors. And in balance, I think next year is shaping up to be an okay year. It won't be great, but it will be better than this year.

他們不能去買新房，因為那裡的房源非常多，不能去買現房，因為那裡的庫存很少。他們的資產負債表良好。他們獲得了良好的勞動市場前景。我只是認為 R&R 會堅持下去是很自然的。 Pro 方面可能沒有那麼多。由於利率較高，可能更多的是DIY方面。但我認為 R&R 市場表現良好。回到你的問題，我沒有考慮任何一個指標。我們會考慮很多很多不同的因素。總的來說，我認為明年會是不錯的一年。不會很好，但會比今年更好。

Got it. And apologies for referencing the incorrect name, it's -- obviously it's been one hell of the earnings season already. So I apologize for the incorrect name there. No worries, but I also appreciate the color. And then just one quick question on is the follow-up on Chenal, and you're mentioning how there's been smaller take-up from builders.

知道了。很抱歉引用了錯誤的名字，很明顯，這已經是財報季的地獄了。所以我為那裡的錯誤名字表示歉意。不用擔心，但我也很欣賞這個顏色。然後有一個簡單的問題是 Chenal 的後續行動，您提到了建築商的使用量如何減少。

Obviously, that would be due to the slower housing environment, but what's the line of sight you have in that business? And whether -- is it just 1 quarter? Is it 2 quarters? And so maybe a little bit of a smaller take-up right now in 4Q, but could this be something it could reverse? Or do you see reversing 1Q, 2Q or early next year?

顯然，這是由於住房環境放緩所致，但您對該行業的視線是什麼？是否只是 1 個季度？是2個季度嗎？因此，第四季的使用量可能會有所減少，但這是否可以逆轉？或者您認為第一季、第二季或明年初會發生逆轉嗎？

Yes, Mike, this is Wayne. A couple of things I would say. Look, we've had good take-up thus far this year. We start to go through a process where we release the next round of lots. And so we're seeing a little bit of softness in the new lot releases. Now what does that mean? Keep in mind, these are regional builders. We're not talking large national builders.

是的，麥克，這是韋恩。我想說幾件事。看，今年到目前為止，我們的使用情況很好。我們開始經歷發布下一輪批次的過程。因此，我們在新批次發布中看到了一些疲軟的情況。這是什麼意思？請記住，這些是區域建設者。我們說的不是大型國家建築商。

So they have -- compared to a national builder, they don't have the same type of balance sheets, they definitely don't have the multiple tools available to provide incentives to prospective home buyers. So perhaps these regional builders instead of building 10 houses, they're only going to do 8 or 9. But I think these are -- we're in the early innings on what we're seeing, but this is just kind of as we look into Q4, we're seeing a little bit of softness.

因此，與全國建築商相比，他們沒有相同類型的資產負債表，他們肯定沒有多種工具來為潛在的購房者提供誘因。因此，也許這些地區建築商不會建造 10 棟房屋，而只會建造 8 或 9 棟。但我認為這些是——我們正處於我們所看到的早期階段，但這只是我們看看第四季度，我們看到了一些疲軟。

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Eric, I just wanted to come back to what you're saying earlier on Mike's question. So are you looking towards a better housing market next year? And specifically, are you expecting single-family construction to be up? And then you mentioned in your remarks that home center takeaway is up 15%, but no doubt it's going to be tempered into '24, if I'm paraphrasing correctly. So what do you ultimately want us to dial in, think about whatever the metaphor for repair and remodel as it relates to you for '24 versus '23?

艾瑞克，我只是想回到你之前就麥克的問題所說的話。那麼您是否期待明年的房地產市場會更好？具體來說，您預計單戶住宅建設會增加嗎？然後你在評論中提到，家庭中心外賣上漲了 15%，但如果我的解釋正確的話，毫無疑問，它會在 24 年回落。那麼，您最終希望我們介入什麼，想想與您有關的「24 與 23」中修復和改造的隱喻是什麼？

So there's 2 different parts to your question, George. So the first one, single-family. If I had to guess right now, I'd say single-family is going to be up a little bit next year versus this year. Not a lot, but a little. And I think we're starting to see signs of -- the housing market, like I said, has not collapsed. The latest data was actually okay, if you step back and you look at starts, we're up 3% month-over-month, the new home sales were up 12% month-over-month.

喬治，你的問題有兩個不同的部分。第一個，單戶家庭。如果我現在必須猜測的話，我會說明年單戶住宅的數量將比今年增加。不是很多，而是一點點。我認為我們開始看到跡象——正如我所說，房地產市場並沒有崩潰。最新的數據實際上還不錯，如果你退一步看看開工率，我們環比增長了 3%，新房銷售環比增長了 12%。

We're going to get to the middle of next year. And it's -- I think most people believe the Fed is going to pivot and start cutting rates. You still got an incredibly tight labor market. You've still got an underbuilt a few existing homes for sale. I don't think those factors are going away. So I do expect starts to be up a little bit next year, and I expect there to be a skew over to single-family as multifamily has got a lot of action over the last couple of years.

我們將到明年年中。我認為大多數人都相信聯準會將轉向並開始降息。勞動市場仍然非常緊張。您還有一些未建成的現房待售。我認為這些因素不會消失。因此，我確實預計明年會出現一些增長，而且我預計單戶住宅會有所傾斜，因為多戶住宅在過去幾年中取得了許多進展。

So switching gears and talking about repair and remodel. So I can talk about the market segment in general. I cannot talk about our shipments, what percent of our shipments go into repair and remodel simply because when we sell it to a dealer distributor, we kind of lose track of it. I can talk specifically about our home center demand, which is going by and large, into the R&R market. So what I think is going to happen is that R&R is going to stay reasonably strong. It's not going to fall out of bed. I've seen some of the forecasts out there that call, for an 8% or 9% decline.

所以換個話題，談修理和改造。所以我可以大致談談細分市場。我無法談論我們的出貨量，我們的出貨量有多少百分比用於維修和改造，只是因為當我們將其出售給經銷商時，我們有點失去了對其的追蹤。我可以具體談談我們的家庭中心需求，總的來說，它正在進入 R&R 市場。因此，我認為 R&R 將保持相當強勁的勢頭。它不會從床上掉下來。我看到一些預測稱下降 8% 或 9%。

No, that's FEA. RISI says R&R is going up 3%. LIRA has got a different number. That's the housing -- that's the Harvard study. But I think intuitively, I would argue that it's going to stay strong or even go up slightly next year as people start to pivot away from services back to goods, they invest in what is probably their favorite asset right now, their own house. The work from home trend, that's not going away or remote work, whatever you want to call it, I just think there's a lot of reasons that people are going to want to put money back into their house. And so I don't see R&R falling out of bed.

不，那是有限元素分析。 RISI 表示 R&R 將上漲 3%。 LIRA 有不同的號碼。這就是住房──這就是哈佛的研究。但我直覺地認為，隨著人們開始從服務轉向商品，他們投資於目前可能是他們最喜歡的資產，即自己的房子，明年它將會保持強勁，甚至略有上升。在家工作的趨勢，這並不是離開或遠距工作，無論你想怎麼稱呼它，我只是認為人們有很多理由想把錢放回自己的房子裡。所以我沒有看到 R&R 從床上掉下來。

Understood. Appreciate the color on that. And then can you talk to us a little bit and maybe you mentioned it, what you expect for manufacturing costs in the fourth quarter for Wood Products relative to what we saw in the third quarter? Should it continue to be getting a bit better as you've been seeing progress this year?

明白了。欣賞它的顏色。然後你能和我們談談嗎？也許你提到過，相對於我們在第三季度看到的情況，你對第四季度木製品的製造成本的預期是多少？正如您今年所看到的進步一樣，它是否應該繼續變得更好一些？

Well, we have been seeing progress this year. And I would tell you that our total cash costs, they're going to be down just a bit in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. But I think in this inflationary environment, having cash costs be flat is a win. They will be lower year-over-year on a rate basis per thousand but I expect cost to be just a little bit lower in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.

嗯，今年我們已經看到了進展。我想告訴你，與第三季相比，第四季我們的總現金成本將略有下降。但我認為在這種通膨環境下，現金成本不變是一種勝利。以千人費率計算，它們將同比下降，但我預計第四季的成本將比第三季略低一些。

And one last question, I'll turn it over. Hopefully, this isn't the case. And actually, I'll ask a quick follow-on to this. But let's say housing is a lot slower next year and demand is a lot slower than what you would have expected. Do you have the opportunity to bring Waldo up more quickly and front-loaded as a way of managing against that?

最後一個問題，我會把它翻過來。希望情況並非如此。事實上，我會​​問一個快速的後續問題。但假設明年的房地產市場成長速度要慢得多，需求也比您預期的要慢得多。你是否有機會讓 Waldo 更快、提前加載來應對這種情況？

And then say differently, let's say, instead of $1.4 million starts, let's say, are up a little bit. It's a boomer year for whatever reason. What do you do in that kind of environment? How do you manage your operating stance, what would you do differently?

然後換句話說，比方說，起價不是 140 萬美元，而是漲了一點。不管是什麼原因，今年都是嬰兒潮世代。在那樣的環境下做什麼呢？您如何管理您的營運立場，您會採取什麼不同的做法？

Yes. So George, so can we bring Waldo up faster? This is a very complex project with enormous Gantt charts involved. We met with the BID Group just last week and they are running ahead of schedule, which I think is great news. So we expect to finish the project in a timely manner, which is by mid next year, as we spoke about and then ramp up production after that. I don't think it's going to be possible for us to beat the schedule.

是的。喬治，我們能更快地把沃爾多帶起來嗎？這是一個非常複雜的項目，涉及大量的甘特圖。我們上週剛與 BID 集團會面，他們的進度提前了，我認為這是個好消息。因此，正如我們所說，我們預計將在明年年中及時完成該項目，然後再提高產量。我認為我們不可能超越時間表。

There's enormous work streams involved with each part of the process -- different pieces of processing equipment that we're putting into the mill. Whether it's a plan or the sawmill or the kilns just a lot going on. We're out there pouring concrete right now, and we're making great progress, but I do not think we can ramp up that project faster.

這個過程的每個部分都涉及大量的工作流程——我們放入工廠的不同加工設備。無論是計劃、鋸木廠還是窯爐，都在進行許多工作。我們現在正在澆築混凝土，並且取得了很大進展，但我認為我們無法更快地推進這個專案。

And then the second part of your question, if it's a boom year, what would we do differently? Well, I think we would put on as many hours as we possibly could at our sawmills, there is a breaking point for people, and there is a breaking point for -- you need to do your preventative maintenance, so you run your equipment into the ground. So I think what we would do is just try to get every last piece of lumber out the mill that we possibly can in that kind of an environment.

然後你問題的第二部分，如果今年是繁榮的一年，我們會採取什麼不同的做法？好吧，我認為我們會在鋸木廠投入盡可能多的時間，對人們來說有一個臨界點，並且有一個臨界點 - 你需要進行預防性維護，所以你將你的設備運行到地面。因此，我認為我們要做的就是嘗試在這種環境下盡可能地將最後一塊木材從工廠中取出。

Your next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 Kurt Yiner 和 D.A. 的對話。戴維森。

Just wanted to start off on timberland. The cost structure in the North at least here in Q3 was a bit higher than I expected. I know contractor availability was one factor that had been a challenge a couple of quarters ago, but curious if there's anything else kind of noteworthy on the cost front that might have hit this quarter or we were just off.

只是想從林地開始。至少在第三季度，北方的成本結構比我預期的要高一些。我知道承包商的可用性是幾個季度前一直是一個挑戰的因素，但我很好奇在成本方面是否還有其他值得注意的事情可能會影響本季度，或者我們剛剛結束。

Yes, Kurt, this is Wayne. I think generally speaking, in the north seasonally, that tends to be our higher cost quarter from a log and haul standpoint, and that's really driven by 2 factors. One, on the logging side, we're further in the back country, we're in steeper terrain. So based on that, that results in a higher logging cost.

是的，庫爾特，這是韋恩。我認為一般來說，從原木和運輸的角度來看，在北部季節性，這往往是我們成本較高的季度，這實際上是由兩個因素驅動的。第一，在伐木方面，我們位於較偏遠的地區，地形更陡峭。因此，基於此，這會導致更高的伐木成本。

And then when you're further back, then you have longer haul distances, so then that also increases your haul costs but the other factor I would say compared to last quarter is we also had slightly higher diesel fuel prices. So we saw an uptick in Q3 compared to Q2. So that was also a component that we experienced this quarter.

然後，當您距離較遠時，運輸距離就會更長，因此這也會增加您的運輸成本，但與上個季度相比，我要說的另一個因素是我們的柴油價格也略高。因此，與第二季相比，我們看到第三季有所上升。這也是我們本季經歷的一個組成部分。

Got it. Okay. And then Eric, I mean, you touched on how in the past, you guys have been very nimble on the capital allocation front, and I think you've built a terrific track record there. I guess when you look at kind of the current balance sheet and cash generation in light of kind of the current lumber market, how do you think about the capacity to be more aggressive with share repurchases if kind of this discount persists?

知道了。好的。然後艾瑞克，我的意思是，你談到了過去你們在資本配置方面非常靈活，我認為你們在這方面建立了出色的記錄。我想，當您根據當前木材市場的情況查看當前的資產負債表和現金生成情況時，您如何看待如果這種折扣持續下去，更積極地進行股票回購的能力？

Yes. So good point, Kurt. We still have a fair bit of capacity. We've got $125 million outstanding on our existing $200 million authorization. That number was set at $200 million for a reason, and it's because we thought we had the capacity to go to that level.

是的。說得好，庫爾特。我們仍然有相當多的能力。我們現有的 2 億美元授權中仍有 1.25 億美元未償。這個數字被定為 2 億美元是有原因的，因為我們認為我們有能力達到這個水平。

I would tell you what influences the thinking probably more than anything is M&A activity. What other projects do we have ongoing that may use up some of that capital. Now certainly, we have our Waldo expansion, which is going to -- we're not done with paying for that project yet. So that's going to work off some cash off the balance sheet.

我想告訴你，對思考影響最大的可能是併購活動。我們正在進行的其他哪些項目可能會消耗部分資金。當然，現在我們已經完成了 Waldo 的擴展，我們還沒有完成該項目的付款。因此，這將從資產負債表上扣除一些現金。

But yes, to get back to your question, we still have more capacity to do stuff, but I'll reiterate what I said in my prepared remarks, which is, we're going to be very careful, very cautious. We're in uncertain territories here. What's going to happen in the Middle East. I don't know, Israel drop a nuclear bomb on Iran, who knows? But you can see markets really dislocate really fast in this kind of an environment. So we'll be slow and patient and careful when we'll buy back what we think are deep discounts to NAV. And certainly, we have the room to do more.

但是，是的，回到你的問題，我們仍然有更多的能力去做事情，但我會重申我在準備好的講話中所說的話，那就是，我們將非常小心、非常謹慎。我們處於不確定的領域。中東將會發生什麼事。我不知道，以色列向伊朗投下核彈，誰知道呢？但你可以看到，在這種環境下，市場的混亂速度確實非常快。因此，當我們回購我們認為較資產淨值大幅折扣的股票時，我們會緩慢、耐心和謹慎。當然，我們還有做更多事情的空間。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

Eric, you referenced stock trading at a steep discount to NAV, certainly using metrics we tend to all use. It certainly looks that way. And then you also talked about use of capital and either going to share repurchase, but also considering M&A activity. So maybe sort of putting those two things together. One, what are you seeing out there in the timber markets and with timberland pricing? And sort of relatedly, if -- let's start there and then I'll have a follow-up.

艾瑞克（Eric），您提到股票交易的價格比資產淨值大幅折扣，當然使用了我們都傾向於使用的指標。看起來確實是這樣。然後您也談到了資本的使用以及股票回購，但也考慮了併購活動。所以也許可以將這兩件事放在一起。第一，您對木材市場和林地定價有何看法？與此相關的是，如果——讓我們從這裡開始，然後我將進行後續行動。

Yes. So the timberland M&A market, it's relatively quiet right now. We suspect sellers are holding off with their properties, perhaps waiting for lumber prices to improve or interest rates to come down or carbon deals become more mainstream is probably a host of factors there. We still want to grow our timberland footprint through M&A, but we're only going to do it if we think we can do it in a shareholder-friendly value creating sort of a way, basically buying timber with IRRs that are above our cost of capital. .

是的。所以Timberland併購市場目前相對平靜。我們懷疑賣家正在推遲出售他們的房產，也許等待木材價格上漲或利率下降或碳交易變得更加主流可能是其中的一系列因素。我們仍然希望透過併購來擴大我們的林地足跡，但只有當我們認為我們可以以一種有利於股東的價值創造方式做到這一點時，我們才會這樣做，基本上是用高於我們成本的內部收益率購買木材。首都。 。

And given how hard and fast our cost of capital has run up, it is very hard for us to find deals that are going to create that value. So our opportunity, Mark, is to find opportunities that are off the beaten path, that are not being broadly auctioned and we've shown that we can do that. We did that with Loutre. If you recall, we did that a couple of years ago. And so we might be looking at things like that right now. So that's -- in my mind, that's the only way you can create value in this environment because timberland prices, they go to broad auction, they're sky high.

考慮到我們的資本成本上升得有多快、有多艱難，我們很難找到能夠創造這種價值的交易。因此，馬克，我們的機會是尋找人跡罕至的機會，這些機會沒有被廣泛拍賣，而我們已經證明我們可以做到這一點。我們和盧特爾一起做到了這一點。如果你還記得的話，我們幾年前就這麼做了。所以我們現在可能正在研究類似的事情。所以，在我看來，這是在這種環境下創造價值的唯一方法，因為林地價格，它們會進行廣泛的拍賣，價格非常高。

Right. And so just kind of just following up on that. So do you just look at it, is the acquisition better than your cost of capital and therefore, greenlight go forward? Or given the fact that you are trading at a very large discount to NAV, that would seem to make the decision to acquire timberlands rather than buy back your stock, even that much more difficult. So maybe kind of just your philosophy on that? And then second would be, I mean, are there conversely opportunities to potentially sell timberlands and arbitrage the value spreads? Or does that not make sense for a number of different factors?

正確的。所以只是跟進一下。那麼，您是否只看一下收購是否優於您的資本成本，以批准繼續進行？或者考慮到你的交易價格比資產淨值有很大折扣，這似乎會讓你做出收購林地而不是回購股票的決定，甚至更加困難。那麼也許這只是你的哲學？我的意思是，第二個問題是，是否有相反的機會出售林地並套利價值差？或者這對許多不同的因素來說沒有意義？

Yes, Mark, there's no doubt the buying back stock has become more attractive to us than buying timberland, look at how quiet we've been in the market here this year. In the market in terms of buying timberland and look at how active we've been here buying back stock. There's no doubt the pendulum has swung back towards buying stock. Now that said, we do want to grow our timberland footprint. I think the outlook for timberland values is fantastic. And so we're always going to be looking at trying to add to our timberland portfolio. But you're right. Right now, it's got to compete with share repurchases. And right now, share repurchases, they've been winning out.

是的，馬克，毫無疑問，回購股票對我們來說比購買林地更具吸引力，看看今年我們在市場上有多安靜。在市場上購買林地方面，看看我們回購股票的積極程度。毫無疑問，鐘擺已經轉向購買股票。話雖如此，我們確實希望擴大我們的林地足跡。我認為林地價值的前景非常好。因此，我們總是會考慮嘗試增加我們的林地投資組合。但你是對的。現在，它必須與股票回購競爭。現在，在股票回購方面，他們一直在獲勝。

Now your second question, would we consider selling timberland to raise cash to fund a buy back, I think as a public company trying to maximize shareholder value, all options are on the table. As portfolio managers, that sometimes means selling assets opportunistically at what we think are very attractive premiums. And we do engage in those types of discussions from time to time. So we'll see how things play out. But yes, we would look at selling timberland, core timberland in fact, if it was at a really attractive price to fund even more repurchases. So we'll see.

現在你的第二個問題，我們是否會考慮出售林地以籌集現金以資助回購，我認為作為一家試圖最大化股東價值的上市公司，所有選擇都在考慮之中。作為投資組合經理，這有時意味著機會主義地以我們認為非常有吸引力的溢價出售資產。我們確實不時參與此類討論。所以我們會看看事情會如何發展。但是，是的，我們會考慮出售林地，事實上是核心林地，如果它的價格確實有吸引力，可以為更多的回購提供資金。所以我們拭目以待。

And just -- and is it true to say that there -- if there's no development activity on the lands, et cetera, there's no tax leakage if you do that?

只是 - 確實如此 - 如果土地上沒有開發活動等，那麼如果你這樣做，就不會有稅收洩漏？

Can you ask that question again?

你能再問一次這個問題嗎？

If you -- when selling core timberlands, if there's been no development activity or anything of that nature on those lands, is there no tax leakage as well? Obviously, one of the big issues for companies selling assets is there's often big tax bills against that sale. But is it true in the case of timber REITs that there wouldn't be?

如果你在出售核心林地時，如果這些土地上沒有任何開發活動或任何類似性質的活動，是否也沒有漏稅？顯然，對於出售資產的公司來說，最大的問題之一是出售資產時往往需要繳納巨額稅款。但木材房地產投資信託基金真的不會存在嗎？

No. I mean these type of sales would be REIT that's REIT income. So yes, there isn't any tax arbitrage.

不，我的意思是這些類型的銷售將是房地產投資信託基金，即房地產投資信託基金收入。所以是的，不存在任何稅收套利。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn of RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Paul Quinn。

Just on your Natural Climate Solutions opportunities. It sounds like you're making decent progress on the first one, that 50,000 acres in the South. What else have you got in the hopper? And what's the time line of those?

就在您的自然氣候解決方案機會上。聽起來您在第一個項目（即南部的 50,000 英畝土地）上取得了不錯的進展。漏斗裡還有什麼？這些的時間線是什麼？

Well, on the carbon credit front, specifically, Mark, are you talking about broader NCS opportunities? Or excuse me, Paul.

嗯，在碳信用方面，具體來說，馬克，您是在談論更廣泛的 NCS 機會嗎？或者對不起，保羅。

Yes, just on the carbon credit, yes, and it is, Paul.

是的，就碳信用額而言，是的，確實如此，保羅。

Yes. So we are making really good progress on our first deal, and we're learning a lot from that transaction. We've got more acres that we are looking at that we might potentially put into a carbon play. But we're going to -- before we execute on those, we're going to see how the first one comes out because it's a relatively sizable transaction, 50,000 acres.

是的。因此，我們在第一筆交易中取得了非常好的進展，並且我們從該交易中學到了很多東西。我們正在尋找更多的土地，我們有可能將其投入碳開發項目中。但在執行這些交易之前，我們將看看第一個交易的結果如何，因為這是一項相對較大的交易，佔地 50,000 英畝。

Okay. And then just moving on to, I guess, Wood Products. Just looking at softwood lumber duties right now, sort of down to the 8% mark, don't seem to be changing sort of the amount of wood that flows from Canada in the U.S. and it looks like that duty rate is going to stay the same in '24. What do you -- what's your take on that file going forward? Do you see a solution? And what's the path to getting that solution and just your thoughts on softwood lumber.

好的。然後我想，就轉向木製品。看看現在的軟木材關稅，有點低至 8%，似乎並沒有改變從加拿大流向美國的木材量，而且看起來關稅稅率將保持在24年也是如此。您對該文件的未來有何看法？你看到解決方案了嗎？獲得該解決方案的途徑是什麼以及您對軟木的想法。

Yes. I think the conversations have been incredibly quiet. I don't know what it's going to take to get to an agreement. I don't know that there are even any discussions taking place at this point. I think when lumber prices drop, I think I start to hear chatter that some of the Canadian producers are willing to engage to try to find a solution. But then as lumber prices come back up, those conversations seem to come to a halt. This thing has been ongoing for many, many years, and I don't see an end to it anytime soon.

是的。我認為談話非常安靜。我不知道需要什麼才能達成協議。我不知道目前是否正在進行任何討論。我認為當木材價格下跌時，我想我開始聽到一些加拿大生產商願意參與嘗試尋找解決方案的傳言。但隨著木材價格回升，這些對話似乎停止了。這件事已經持續了很多很多年，而且我認為它不會很快結束。

Okay. And then just moving on to just real estate, and I know you haven't come out with your '24 guidance yet, but just at a high level, I mean, just for the comments you've made about strength in the market on single-family and just wondering what your expectation for '24 on Chenal Valley lot sales, should that be flat or down or up next year?

好的。然後就轉向房地產，我知道你還沒有拿出你的 24 年指導，但只是在高水平上，我的意思是，只是為了你對市場實力所做的評論單戶住宅，只是想知道您對24年Chenal Valley 地塊銷售的期望是什麼，明年應該持平、下降還是上升？

Yes, Paul, this is Wayne. Yes, I think we're -- it's still a little bit early. We'll put out our '24 outlook here, Q1 next year. I think -- but like we said earlier, it's pretty in the early innings of what we're seeing on the market and our take-up rates. So we'll get more insight into that over the next couple of months. And have a better sense of where '24 will come out. But we still think there is -- we still think there's pretty good take up.

是的，保羅，這是韋恩。是的，我認為我們——現在還有點早。我們將在此發布 24 年第一季的展望。我認為 - 但正如我們之前所說，從我們在市場上看到的情況和我們的接受率來看，目前的情況還不錯。因此，我們將在接下來的幾個月內對此進行更深入的了解。並且更了解 '24 的結局。但我們仍然認為存在——我們仍然認為有相當好的採用率。

Like I said earlier, instead of these regional builders doing 10 homes a year, maybe they do 8 or 9. So it's not -- we don't think it's going to just drop off. It's just a slight -- maybe a slight reduction or a little softness there. And I would also say that from a pricing standpoint, we have good pricing power, we've increased our lot prices 5% to 10% since last year, and we're holding those and still moving at those prices. So we continue to see solid pricing. It's just what is the regional builders, how much do they want to take on. And we'll see what happens over the next couple of months.

就像我之前說的，這些區域建築商不是每年建造 10 套房屋，而是可能建造 8 或 9 套。所以，我們不認為它會下降。這只是輕微的——也許是輕微的減少或輕微的軟化。我還想說，從定價的角度來看，我們擁有良好的定價能力，自去年以來我們已將批次價格提高了5％ 至10％，並且我們將持有這些價格，並且仍在以這些價格移動。因此，我們繼續看到穩定的定價。這只是區域建設者是什麼，他們想承擔多少。我們將看看接下來的幾個月會發生什麼。

Your next question comes from -- is a follow-up question from the line of Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ketan Mamtora 的後續問題。

Just coming back to the real estate question that Paul was asking. This is not a 2024 question, but with this -- the stratification done on the CatchMark lands, how should we think about sort of just normalized rural land sales on an ongoing basis? What's the right number now?

回到保羅問的房地產問題。這不是 2024 年的問題，但隨著 CatchMark 土地的分層，我們應該如何持續思考農村土地銷售的正常化？現在正確的數字是多少？

Yes. I mean from an acreage standpoint, we've looked at -- we kind of target around 1% of our portfolio. This year, we're around 18,000 acres, so kind of slightly below that 1% threshold. But kind of over time, that's the target we look at from a real estate standpoint on the rural side. Pricing, yes, it's real estate sales can be very lumpy and it depends on the size of the tracks that you're selling and the end use from recreational to conservation so that can really vary quarter-to-quarter, period-to-period and year-to-year. So I think, yes, that's when we look at an outlook, we're looking at that 1% kind of the portfolio.

是的。我的意思是，從種植面積的角度來看，我們的目標是佔投資組合的 1% 左右。今年，我們的面積約為 18,000 英畝，略低於 1% 的閾值。但隨著時間的推移，這就是我們從農村房地產角度看待的目標。定價，是的，它的房地產銷售可能會非常不穩定，這取決於您所銷售的賽道的大小以及從娛樂到保護的最終用途，因此每個季度、每個時期的價格都會有所不同並逐年。所以我認為，是的，當我們審視前景時，我們關注的是 1% 的投資組合。

At this time, I'm showing there are no further questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Wayne Wasechek.

此時，我表明沒有其他問題了。現在我會把電話轉回給 Wayne Wasechek。

Thanks for your questions and your interest in PotlatchDeltic. That concludes our call.

感謝您提出問題以及您對 PotlatchDeltic 的興趣。我們的通話到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。