Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Henry, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫亨利，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 PotlatchDeltic 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne Wasechek, Interim Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.

我現在請臨時副總裁兼首席財務官 Wayne Wasechek 先生致開幕詞。先生，您可以繼續了。

Good morning, and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com. I will turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our second quarter results and outlook.

早上好，歡迎參加 PotlatchDeltic 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的是 PotlatchDeltic 總裁兼首席執行官 Eric Cremers。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們的新聞稿、演示幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中關於與這些前瞻性聲明相關的風險的警告聲明。另請注意，非 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表可在我們的網站 www.potlatchdeltic.com 上找到。我會將電話轉給埃里克徵求一些意見，然後我將回顧我們第二季度的業績和前景。

Well, thank you, Wayne. Looking at our second quarter, we reported total adjusted EBITDA of $46 million after the market closed yesterday. Our Wood Products segment's adjusted EBITDA was $12 million in the second quarter compared to breakeven results in the first quarter. Higher lumber prices were the primary driver of the improved results. We have seen a steady uptick in the composite lumber price since mid-June driven by several factors, including favorable housing data, wildfires in Canada, following European lumber imports and additional capacity constraints from mill closures and curtailments, particularly in British Columbia. We continue to expect that lumber prices will remain above long-term averages. We shipped 280 million board feet of lumber in the second quarter, which was 18 million feet more than we shipped in Q1 and 26 million feet more than we shipped in Q2 of last year.

嗯，謝謝你，韋恩。看看我們的第二季度，昨天收盤後，我們公佈的調整後 EBITDA 總額為 4600 萬美元。與第一季度的盈虧平衡結果相比，第二季度我們的木製品部門調整後 EBITDA 為 1200 萬美元。木材價格上漲是業績改善的主要推動力。自6 月中旬以來，我們看到綜合木材價格在多種因素的推動下穩步上漲，包括有利的住房數據、加拿大的野火、歐洲木材進口之後以及工廠關閉和削減造成的額外產能限制，特別是在不列顛哥倫比亞省。我們繼續預計木材價格將保持在長期平均水平之上。第二季度我們運送了 2.8 億板英尺的木材，比第一季度多了 1800 萬英尺，比去年第二季度多了 2600 萬英尺。

In June 2022, we announced a $131 million project to modernize and expand our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill. Project activity is currently focused on site prep and engineering and the project remains on track to be completed by the end of 2024. The project will increase to significantly reduce the mill's cash costs. The existing mill will continue to operate during the project with approximately 3 weeks of downtime expected in 2024 to tie in the new equipment.

2022 年 6 月，我們宣布了一項耗資 1.31 億美元的項目，旨在對阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠進行現代化改造和擴建。項目活動目前主要集中在場地準備和工程上，該項目仍有望在 2024 年底前完成。該項目將增加，以顯著降低工廠的現金成本。現有工廠將在項目期間繼續運營，預計 2024 年將停工約 3 週，以安裝新設備。

Our Timberlands segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $29 million in the second quarter. We harvested 1.6 million tons in the quarter, which includes the impact of Idaho harvest volumes being at their seasonal low point due to the typical pause for spring breakup.

我們的 Timberlands 部門第二季度調整後 EBITDA 為 2900 萬美元。本季度我們收穫了 160 萬噸，其中包括愛達荷州收穫量因春季休耕而處於季節性低點的影響。

Our Southern team achieved planned harvest volume in the second quarter despite adverse operating conditions due to significant rainfall across the region. Both our Northern and Southern Timberlands teams did a great job of exceeding our harvest plan in the first half of the year. Our Real Estate segment had a solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $12 million. On the rural side of the business, we sold 900 acres at nearly $5,000 an acre. Additionally, our real estate team completed the stratification of the CatchMark timberlands and has now identified approximately 70,000 acres that have the potential to be sold for significantly higher values than core timberlands.

儘管該地區降雨量大，運營條件不利，但我們的南方團隊在第二季度仍實現了計劃收穫量。我們的北部和南部 Timberlands 團隊在上半年都出色地完成了收穫計劃。我們的房地產部門季度業績穩健，調整後 EBITDA 為 1200 萬美元。在農村方面，我們以每英畝近 5,000 美元的價格出售了 900 英畝土地。此外，我們的房地產團隊完成了 CatchMark 林地的分層，現已確定大約 70,000 英畝的土地有可能以遠高於核心林地的價格出售。

The development side of our real estate business remains strong despite the higher interest rate environment. Residential lot inventory in our Chenal Valley master plan community remains at low levels. And we continue to have good take-up on our lot offerings. During the second quarter, we sold 42 residential lots at an average price of $107,000 per lot, and completed nearly $5 million in commercial land sales, which averaged over $800,000 per acre.

儘管利率環境較高，但我們房地產業務的開發依然強勁。我們的 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區的住宅地塊庫存仍處於較低水平。我們的批次產品繼續得到良好的接受。第二季度，我們以每塊平均價格 107,000 美元的價格出售了 42 個住宅用地，並完成了近 500 萬美元的商業土地銷售，平均每英畝超過 800,000 美元。

As it relates to natural climate solution opportunities, we continue to make great progress in this area. Our team is working on a carbon credit project, which could come to fruition as early as the first half of next year. We are also exploring opportunities to supply mill residuals and pulpwood to pellet manufacturers and biofuel producers. In addition, we continue to see strong interest from solar farm developers to complete solar deals in the South. Our pipeline of potential solar land sales and leases is at nearly $200 million on a net present value basis, and we expect this pipeline to grow.

由於它涉及自然氣候解決方案的機會，我們繼續在這一領域取得巨大進展。我們的團隊正在開展一個碳信用項目，該項目最早可能在明年上半年取得成果。我們還在探索向顆粒製造商和生物燃料生產商供應工廠剩餘物和紙漿木材的機會。此外，我們繼續看到太陽能發電場開發商對完成南方太陽能交易的濃厚興趣。按淨現值計算，我們潛在的太陽能土地銷售和租賃渠道接近 2 億美元，並且我們預計這一渠道將會增長。

All these natural climate solutions opportunities will increase the demand for our rural land, likely driving timberland values higher.

所有這些自然氣候解決方案機會將增加對農村土地的需求，可能會推高林地價值。

Shifting to housing, we are seeing signs of improvement. Sales and net orders for large homebuilders have recently improved. There is a record low level of existing homes for sale in the U.S., forcing prospective homebuyers to look at purchasing a new home versus an existing home. This has translated into higher single-family housing starts as June was the second month in a row where single-family starts were above 900,000 units. This is important as a single-family unit uses approximately 3x the lumber as a multifamily unit. Also, homebuilder sentiment has increased 7 months in a row and is at the highest level since June of 2022.

轉向住房，我們看到了改善的跡象。大型住宅建築商的銷售和淨訂單最近有所改善。美國現房待售水平創歷史新低，迫使潛在購房者考慮購買新房而不是現房。這轉化為單戶住宅開工量的增加，因為 6 月份單戶住宅開工量連續第二個月超過 90 萬套。這一點很重要，因為單戶單元使用的木材大約是多戶單元的三倍。此外，房屋建築商信心連續 7 個月上升，達到 2022 年 6 月以來的最高水平。

We continue to believe there are strong positive tailwinds to the housing market. Our view is based on a fundamental shortage of housing stock due largely to the combination of underbuilding after the great financial crisis and favorable demographics in the form of millennials who have reached prime home-buying ages. In our view, the final element needed for housing construction to fully rebound is lower interest rates. Acknowledging it will take time, we continue to expect that U.S. housing starts will return to levels above the long-term average of 1.5 million units per year once mortgage rates ease, making homes more affordable.

我們仍然相信房地產市場存在強勁的積極推動力。我們的觀點是基於住房存量的根本性短缺，這在很大程度上是由於金融危機後的建設不足和已達到購房黃金年齡的千禧一代的有利人口結構共同造成的。我們認為，住房建設全面反彈所需的最後一個因素是較低的利率。我們承認這需要時間，但我們仍然預計，一旦抵押貸款利率下降，美國新屋開工量將恢復到每年 150 萬套的長期平均水平以上，使住房變得更加負擔得起。

Turning to the repair and remodel segment, which represents about 40% of lumber demand, the underlying fundamentals remain favorable for several reasons. Existing U.S. housing stock remains the oldest in the history of the statistic of 42 years on average. This is important because older homes are significantly smaller than new homes on average remote work means more people need more space and older homes typically need more repairs.

至於佔木材需求約 40% 的維修和改造領域，由於多種原因，基本面仍然有利。美國現有住房存量仍然是統計歷史上最古老的，平均長達 42 年。這很重要，因為平均而言，舊房屋比新房屋小得多，遠程工作意味著更多的人需要更多空間，而舊房屋通常需要更多維修。

Remodeling is a very attractive option for homeowners given strong levels of home equity across the U.S., a robust job market and the fact that consumer balance sheets are generally in good shape. Also with higher mortgage rates prospective homebuyers are more likely to stay in their existing home and remodel versus move up. As one indicator of continued strength of the repair and remodel segment our volumes sold to big-box home center retailers is up 17% year-to-date over last year.

鑑於美國各地房屋淨值水平較高、就業市場強勁以及消費者資產負債表總體狀況良好，改造對於房主來說是一個非常有吸引力的選擇。此外，由於抵押貸款利率較高，潛在購房者更有可能留在現有房屋中進行改造，而不是搬遷。作為維修和改造領域持續強勁的指標之一，我們向大型家居中心零售商銷售的銷量今年迄今比去年增長了 17%。

Moving to capital allocation, we repurchased 9,000 shares for $400,000 during the quarter at $45 per share under our 10b5-1 plan. We continually evaluate all of our capital allocation opportunities to grow shareholder value over time, and we will not act hastily towards any one of these options. Far too many companies indiscriminately buy back shares destroying shareholder value. We remain committed to repurchasing shares, but only when they trade at a significant discount to our estimated net asset value. Analysts on average peg or NAV at around $63 per share. As a reminder, we have $150 million remaining on our $200 million repurchase authorization.

轉向資本配置，我們在本季度根據 10b5-1 計劃以每股 45 美元的價格回購了 9,000 股，價格為 400,000 美元。我們不斷評估所有資本配置機會，以隨著時間的推移增加股東價值，並且我們不會倉促採取任何一種選擇。太多公司不加區別地回購股票，從而損害了股東價值。我們仍然致力於回購股票，但前提是它們的交易價格比我們估計的資產淨值大幅折扣。分析師平均將每股資產淨值定為 63 美元左右。提醒一下，我們 2 億美元的回購授權還剩 1.5 億美元。

At the end of the quarter, we had $331 million in cash on the balance sheet and liquidity of $630 million. Our strong balance sheet with low leverage and significant liquidity provides us with the flexibility and a solid platform to continue growing shareholder value. Regarding environmental, social and governance, we published our fourth ESG report in May. Our ESG report formerly links our ESG strategy to 4 pillars: forest, planet, people and performance and advances our ESG strategic initiatives through short- and long-term goals. PotlatchDeltic is committed to social and environmental responsibility and strong governance practices, and we are proud of our progress and the initiatives we have underway in these areas.

截至本季度末，我們的資產負債表上有 3.31 億美元現金，流動資金為 6.3 億美元。我們強大的資產負債表、低杠桿率和大量流動性為我們提供了繼續增長股東價值的靈活性和堅實的平台。關於環境、社會和治理，我們於五月發布了第四份 ESG 報告。我們的 ESG 報告以前將我們的 ESG 戰略與 4 個支柱聯繫起來：森林、地球、人類和績效，並通過短期和長期目標推進我們的 ESG 戰略舉措。 PotlatchDeltic 致力於社會和環境責任以及強有力的治理實踐，我們為我們在這些領域取得的進步和採取的舉措感到自豪。

To wrap up my comments, PotlatchDeltic remains very well positioned with an investment-grade balance sheet and a portfolio of high-quality assets. Our strategy is well aligned with industry fundamentals and emerging opportunities and we remained a disciplined and opportunistic capital allocation approach. These attributes demonstrate our strong commitment to increasing shareholder value over the long term. I will now turn it over to Wayne to discuss our second quarter results and our outlook.

最後，PotlatchDeltic 仍擁有投資級資產負債表和優質資產組合，處於非常有利的地位。我們的戰略與行業基本面和新興機遇非常一致，我們仍然採取紀律嚴明、機會主義的資本配置方法。這些特性表明我們對長期增加股東價值的堅定承諾。我現在將把它交給韋恩討論我們的第二季度業績和前景。

Thank you, Eric. Starting with Page 4 of the slides. Adjusted EBITDA was $46 million in the second quarter compared to $58 million in the first quarter. EBITDA decreased quarter-over-quarter as the effect of higher lumber prices in the second quarter was more than offset by lower seasonal harvest volumes and the sale of fewer rural acres. I will now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our second quarter results.

謝謝你，埃里克。從幻燈片的第 4 頁開始。第二季度調整後 EBITDA 為 4600 萬美元，而第一季度調整後 EBITDA 為 5800 萬美元。 EBITDA 環比下降，因為第二季度木材價格上漲的影響被季節性採伐量減少和農村土地銷售減少所抵消。我現在將回顧我們的每個運營部門，並為我們的第二季度業績提供更多信息。

Information for our Timberlands segment is displayed on Slides 5 through 7. The segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased from $47 million in the first quarter to $29 million in the second quarter. Our team leveraged good logging conditions to harvest 319,000 tons of sawlogs in Idaho in the second quarter. This volume is seasonally lower than the 471,000 tons that we harvested in the first quarter due to typical spring breakup. Our Idaho sawlog prices increased 2% on a per ton basis in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The higher sawlog prices were a result of the positive effect of a normal seasonal decrease in the density of sawlogs.

我們的 Timberlands 部門的信息顯示在幻燈片 5 至 7 中。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 從第一季度的 4700 萬美元減少到第二季度的 2900 萬美元。我們的團隊利用良好的伐木條件，第二季度在愛達荷州收穫了 319,000 噸鋸木。由於典型的春季斷裂，這一產量季節性低於我們第一季度收穫的 471,000 噸。與第一季度相比，第二季度我們的愛達荷州鋸木價格每噸上漲了 2%。鋸木價格上漲是鋸木密度正常季節性下降的積極影響的結果。

In the South, we harvested 1.3 million tons in the second quarter compared to 1.6 million tons in the first quarter. Our second quarter harvest volume was impacted by challenging operating conditions due to unusually wet weather and softer log demand. Our Southern sawlog prices in the second quarter were flat compared to the first quarter.

在南方，我們第二季度收穫了 130 萬噸，而第一季度為 160 萬噸。由於異常潮濕的天氣和原木需求疲軟，我們第二季度的採伐量受到了充滿挑戰的經營條件的影響。我們第二季度的南方鋸木價格與第一季度持平。

Moving to Wood Products on Slides 8 and 9. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $12 million in the second quarter from breakeven in the first quarter. On average, our average lumber price realizations increased 9% from $435 per thousand board feet in the first quarter to $476 per thousand board feet in the second quarter. By comparison, the random lengths framing lumber composite price was 1% lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Note that our regional mix and product mix is not the same as the composite. Furthermore, there is a timing difference between our sales and the composite.

轉到幻燈片 8 和 9 上的木製品。第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 從第一季度的盈虧平衡增加到 1200 萬美元。平均而言，我們的平均木材價格實現增長了 9%，從第一季度的每千板英尺 435 美元增加到第二季度的每千板英尺 476 美元。相比之下，第二季度隨機長度框架木材綜合價格比第一季度低 1%。請注意，我們的區域組合和產品組合與復合材料不一樣。此外，我們的銷售和綜合數據之間存在時間差異。

As a reminder, the lag we experienced between booking and shipping orders is not captured by the composite, which is closer to a real-time indication of price. Lumber shipments increased 7% to 280 million board feet in the second quarter. Our shipments were higher in the second quarter as a result of increased production at our Ola sawmill, higher cut rates in our northern mills due to warmer weather and planned maintenance at our Warren mill that impacted production in the first quarter.

提醒一下，我們在預訂和發貨訂單之間經歷的滯後並未被綜合數據捕獲，該綜合數據更接近於實時價格指示。第二季度木材出貨量增長 7%，達到 2.8 億板英尺。我們第二季度的出貨量較高，原因是我們的奧拉鋸木廠產量增加、北方工廠因天氣變暖而提高了切割率，以及沃倫工廠的計劃維護影響了第一季度的產量。

Shifting to Real Estate on Slides 10 and 11. The segment's adjusted EBITDA was $12 million in the second quarter compared to $19 million in the first quarter. EBITDA generated by rural sales declined sequentially due to the mix and timing of transactions. However, EBITDA generated by our Chenal Valley master planned community was higher in the second quarter compared to the first quarter due to an increase in residential lot sales along with 2 commercial real estate sales for a total of 6 acres with prices that averaged over $800,000 per acre.

轉向幻燈片 10 和 11 上的房地產。第二季度該部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 1200 萬美元，而第一季度為 1900 萬美元。由於交易的組合和時間安排，農村銷售產生的 EBITDA 環比下降。然而，與第一季度相比，我們的Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區第二季度產生的EBITDA 更高，原因是住宅地塊銷售增加，同時還有2 處商業地產銷售，總面積6 英畝，平均價格超過800,000 美元。英畝。

During the second quarter, we closed on the sale of 42 residential lots at a lower average price than in the first quarter due to a different mix of lot price points.

在第二季度，由於地塊價格點的不同組合，我們以低於第一季度的平均價格完成了 42 個住宅地塊的銷售。

Turning to capital structure, which is summarized on Slide 12. Our total liquidity at the end of June was $630 million. This amount includes $330 million of cash as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. We have $40 million of debt that is scheduled to mature in December. We are currently evaluating our options on whether to pay off or refinance this debt. We still have $250 million of forward starting interest rate swaps on our balance sheet, that we can utilize to refinance debt at well below market rates.

轉向資本結構，幻燈片 12 對此進行了總結。截至 6 月底，我們的總流動資金為 6.3 億美元。這筆金額包括 3.3 億美元現金以及我們尚未提取的左輪手槍。我們有 4000 萬美元的債務計劃於 12 月到期。我們目前正在評估是否償還或再融資該債務的選擇。我們的資產負債表上仍有 2.5 億美元的遠期起始利率掉期，我們可以利用這些利率以遠低於市場的利率為債務進行再融資。

We repurchased 9,000 shares at $45 per share for a total of $400,000 in the second quarter. As a reminder, we have a 10b5-1 share repurchase plan in place with $150 million remaining on our $200 million repurchase authorization. This reflects our ability and commitment to repurchase our shares at attractive prices as part of our broader capital allocation strategy focused on increasing shareholder value over the long term.

第二季度我們以每股 45 美元的價格回購了 9,000 股股票，總計 40 萬美元。提醒一下，我們已經制定了 10b5-1 股票回購計劃，2 億美元的回購授權中還剩 1.5 億美元。這反映了我們以有吸引力的價格回購股票的能力和承諾，作為我們更廣泛的資本配置戰略的一部分，該戰略專注於長期增加股東價值。

Capital expenditures were $12 million in the second quarter. That amount includes Real Estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement and excludes timberland acquisitions. For the full year, we are planning to spend $135 million to $145 million, excluding any potential acquisitions. Our capital expenditure estimate includes $74 million for the Waldo, Arkansas sawmill modernization and expansion project. We received $23 million of insurance recoveries in the second quarter for property damage and business interruption related to the Ola sawmill fire. Since our claim was filed in 2021, we have received $73 million of insurance recoveries and expect to finalize our claim before the end of the year.

第二季度資本支出為 1200 萬美元。該金額包括房地產開發支出，該支出包含在我們現金流量表中的運營現金中，但不包括林地收購。我們計劃全年支出 1.35 億至 1.45 億美元，不包括任何潛在的收購。我們的資本支出估計包括 7400 萬美元用於阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠現代化和擴建項目。第二季度，我們因與奧拉鋸木廠火災相關的財產損失和業務中斷獲得了 2,300 萬美元的保險賠償。自 2021 年提出索賠以來，我們已收到 7300 萬美元的保險賠償，預計在年底前完成索賠。

I will now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on Slide 13. Harvest volumes in the North are planned to be seasonally higher in the third quarter, but lower than a typical for a third quarter as our team was able to pull forward a portion of our planned third quarter harvest volumes in the first half of the year. We expect Northern sawlog prices to rise about 8% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

我現在將提供一些高層展望評論。幻燈片 13 中介紹了詳細信息。預計第三季度北部的收穫量會季節性增加，但低於第三季度的典型收穫量，因為我們的團隊能夠提前完成部分計劃的第三季度收穫量今年上半年。我們預計第三季度北方鋸木價格將較第二季度上漲約 8%。

In the South, we plan to harvest 1.6 million tons in the third quarter. We expect our Southern sawlog prices in the third quarter to be flat to the second quarter. We plan to ship 270 million to 280 million board feet of lumber in the third quarter. Our average lumber price thus far in the third quarter is approximately 2% higher than our second quarter average lumber price. This is based on shipments of approximately 120 million board feet of lumber.

在南方，我們計劃第三季度收穫160萬噸。我們預計第三季度南方鋸木價格將與第二季度持平。我們計劃在第三季度運送 2.7 億至 2.8 億板英尺的木材。迄今為止，我們第三季度的平均木材價格比第二季度的平均木材價格高出約 2%。這是基於約 1.2 億板英尺木材的出貨量。

Our lumber prices have been increasing recently, and our spot price is currently about 6% higher than our second quarter average lumber price. As a reminder, a $10 per thousand board foot change in lumber price equals approximately $12 million of consolidated EBITDA for us on an annual basis.

我們的木材價格最近一直在上漲，目前我們的現貨價格比第二季度的平均木材價格高出約 6%。提醒一下，木材價格每千板英尺變化 10 美元，相當於我們每年約 1200 萬美元的綜合 EBITDA。

Shifting to Real Estate. We expect to sell approximately 2,600 acres of rural land and 35 Chenal Valley residential lots in the third quarter. We're also still expected to sell approximately 18,000 acres of rural land in 2023. Additional real estate details are provided on the slide. Overall, we anticipate our total adjusted EBITDA will be higher in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. This is based on the expectations for higher lumber prices and a seasonal increase in harvest volumes.

轉向房地產。我們預計第三季度將出售約 2,600 英畝的農村土地和 35 個 Chenal Valley 住宅用地。我們還預計在 2023 年出售約 18,000 英畝的農村土地。幻燈片中提供了更多房地產詳細信息。總體而言，我們預計第三季度調整後 EBITDA 總額將高於第二季度。這是基於對木材價格上漲和採伐量季節性增加的預期。

We are encouraged by the resiliency of new home demand and the steady improvement in homebuilder sentiment. We remain bullish on long-term housing fundamentals and believe we are well positioned to continue growing shareholder value over the long term. That concludes our prepared remarks. Henry, I'd like to now turn the call over to Q&A.

新房需求的彈性和住宅建築商信心的穩步改善令我們感到鼓舞。我們仍然看好長期住房基本面，並相信我們有能力在長期內繼續增加股東價值。我們準備好的發言到此結束。亨利，我現在想把電話轉到問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from George Staphos from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Couple of questions. So first of all, is there a way to quantify what the effect of the weather was, particularly in the South in Timberlands, what that might have cost you either in terms of volume or EBITDA from what a normal 2Q would be recognizing the weather always is something that you need to contend with.

有幾個問題。首先，有沒有一種方法可以量化天氣的影響，特別是在 Timberlands 的南部，從正常的第二季度始終認識到天氣情況來看，這可能會在銷量或 EBITDA 方面造成您的損失是你需要應對的事情。

Yes. Thanks, George. Yes, as it relates to the impacts from weather, we talked about in Q1, the team did a great job of really exceeding the plan in the first quarter. And going into the second quarter, we knew the adverse weather conditions, and we knew that we were going to kind of end up with our planned volume for year-to-date. So Q2, while there was adverse weather, we really met our plan given what we had done in the first quarter of the year. So I think the key takeaways will be there -- our planned harvest volume for the full year is what we would expect. So...

是的。謝謝，喬治。是的，因為這與天氣的影響有關，我們在第一季度談到，團隊做得很好，第一季度確實超出了計劃。進入第二季度，我們知道不利的天氣條件，我們知道我們最終將達到今年迄今為止的計劃產量。因此，在第二季度，儘管天氣惡劣，但考慮到我們在今年第一季度所做的工作，我們確實達到了我們的計劃。所以我認為關鍵的要點是——我們全年計劃的收穫量正是我們所期望的。所以...

On the pricing side, George, I would say that mills never got so low on volume that there was price pressure. Sometimes when mills get low on logs, you see a run in pricing, and we didn't really see that in Q2. It was just a really challenging quarter and the team had to work around that weather.

在定價方面，喬治，我想說的是，工廠的產量從來沒有這麼低，以至於存在價格壓力。有時，當工廠原木不足時，您會看到價格上漲，但我們在第二季度並沒有真正看到這一點。這是一個非常具有挑戰性的季度，團隊必須在這種天氣下工作。

Yes. Actually, that was going to be one of my next question. In terms of the pull forward on volume into 2Q from 3Q, what do you estimate that is, again, recognizing that you're on plan for your volume and your harvest profile for the year, but any way to quantify that if you didn't, and perhaps I missed it.

是的。事實上，這將是我的下一個問題之一。就產量從第三季度到第二季度的拉動而言，您的估計是，再次認識到您正在計劃今年的產量和收穫概況，但如果您沒有這樣做，有什麼方法可以量化這一點？ t，也許我錯過了。

Yes. Well, I think to look at 2 things. One, if you look at our Northern volumes, so for year-to-date, we're probably 100,000 ahead. And so that will impact Q2 -- Q3 and Q4, probably half in each of Q3 and Q4. And then for the South, we're on track. So we're kind of normal volumes for the back half of the year in the kind of the 1.6 million range in the South for each quarter.

是的。嗯，我想看兩件事。第一，如果你看看我們的北方卷，那麼今年迄今為止，我們可能領先 100,000 份。因此，這將影響第二季度、第三季度和第四季度，可能影響第三季度和第四季度各一半。然後對於南方，我們正步入正軌。因此，下半年的銷量屬於正常水平，南方每個季度的銷量約為 160 萬輛。

Okay. Two last ones for me, and I'll turn it over. One, to the extent that you have any view on this, what are you seeing in the fiber markets in terms of timber right now? Are you seeing customers coming back to the market and buying -- obviously, there's been a little bit of -- through the first half, reduction in demand from the paper mills. What are you seeing there to the extent that you can offer any commentary.

好的。最後兩個給我，我會把它翻過來的。一，就您對此有何看法，您目前在木材方面的纖維市場有何看法？您是否看到客戶回到市場併購買——顯然，上半年造紙廠的需求有所減少。您在那裡看到了什麼，您可以提供任何評論。

And then part of the story on Wood Products and housing this year has been driven significantly by the fact that rates are high. You're seeing not as much in the way of existing home sales because people who have a home are locked in at a lower rate, and so that's propelling more new home construction. With rates starting to come down, what are your contacts telling you in terms of what that might mean for the pace of existing home sales and then in turn, what that might mean for new construction?

今年木製品和住房市場的部分情況是由高利率這一事實推動的。你看到的現房銷售情況並沒有那麼大，因為擁有房屋的人被鎖定在較低的利率，因此這推動了更多的新房建設。隨著利率開始下降，您的聯繫人告訴您這對現有房屋銷售的速度可能意味著什麼，然後反過來，這對新建築可能意味著什麼？

Yes. So George, I'll take the first 1 on pricing. So I think going from Q2 to Q3, I think we're looking for Southern prices to be relatively flat. I think from a demand standpoint, certainly. Yes, we saw some mills take some economic downtime, some quotas. And this is all market dependent. So probably, we see more tension on the coastal side. Our legacy CatchMark, we've seen more quotas and downtime taken. But I think we're encouraged by -- we're seeing that start to loosen up here going into Q3. So I think demand, we're seeing a little bit of pickup in demand there. And like I said, pricing relatively flat, we're expecting from Q2 to Q3.

是的。喬治，我將選擇第一個關於定價的問題。因此，我認為從第二季度到第三季度，我們希望南方的價格相對持平。我認為從需求的角度來看，當然可以。是的，我們看到一些工廠出現了一些經濟停頓，一些配額。這完全取決於市場。因此，我們可能會看到沿海地區更加緊張。我們的傳統 CatchMark 已經看到了更多的配額和停機時間。但我認為我們感到鼓舞 - 我們看到進入第三季度開始放鬆。所以我認為需求方面，我們看到那裡的需求有所回升。正如我所說，我們預計第二季度到第三季度的定價相對平穩。

And I'll take the second half of your question, George, regarding rates roll over what I think is going to happen to existing, I do think existing home sales will start to pick back up again if rates come down, and the reason existing will pick back up again is because people don't feel like they're trapped in their existing home. Hopefully, that means they're looking to buy a new home in different location perhaps. So I don't think, if rates come down, I don't see new home sales necessarily rolling over and I think that's really driven by the fact that the U.S. is just flat out under built somewhere between 2 million and 4 million units, number one. And number two, you've got this age cohort. It's in the low 30s that's anxious to buy a home. So rates rolling over, existing home sales will pick up, but I don't envision that impacting new home sales.

喬治，我將回答你問題的後半部分，關於利率滾動，我認為現有房屋將會發生什麼，我確實認為，如果利率下降，現有房屋銷售將開始再次回升，以及現有的原因會再次回升是因為人們不覺得自己被困在現有的家中。希望這意味著他們可能想在不同的地點購買新房。所以我不認為，如果利率下降，我認為新屋銷售不一定會回滾，我認為這實際上是由於美國正在建設中的房屋數量在 200 萬到 400 萬套之間，第一。第二，你有這個年齡段的人。 30多歲的年輕人急於買房。因此，利率滾動，現有房屋銷售將會回升，但我不認為這會影響新屋銷售。

Our next question comes from Ketan Mamtora from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ketan Mamtora。

First question, coming back to U.S. South, I'm more curious about Southern pulpwood prices. There's a pretty big drop reported by Timber Mart-South. I'm just curious, as you think about your wood baskets, do you see any impact in your kind of regions as you move into sort of Q3 and the back half in terms of pressure on pulpwood prices?

第一個問題，回到美國南部，我更好奇南部紙漿木材的價格。據南方木材市場報導，下降幅度相當大。我只是很好奇，當您考慮您的木材籃子時，您是否認為進入第三季度和下半年紙漿木材價格壓力會對您所在的地區產生任何影響？

Yes Ketan, this is Wayne. Yes, it's difficult or a bit challenging to compare. Certainly, our prices aren't as down as much as Timber Mart-South. I think when you look at Timber Mart-South data, a couple of factors. One, it's pretty thin on the data. And two, I think my understanding is they use a simple average versus a weighted average. So that information really can cause some volatility in pricing. So -- especially when you compare it to ours. So I think as it relates to pulpwood, we're probably still a little bit flat to maybe slightly down. We expect going from Q2 to Q3. Still, like I said, we see some quotas and downtime on the pulp and paper business. So yes, that's reflective of where we see pricing kind of into Q3 and maybe the latter half of the year.

是的，科坦，這是韋恩。是的，比較起來很困難或者有點挑戰性。當然，我們的價格沒有南木材市場那麼低。我認為，當你查看南方木材市場的數據時，會發現幾個因素。第一，數據非常薄弱。第二，我認為我的理解是他們使用簡單平均值而不是加權平均值。因此，這些信息確實會導致定價出現一些波動。所以——尤其是當你將它與我們的進行比較時。因此，我認為，由於與紙漿木材相關，我們可能仍然有點持平甚至略有下降。我們預計從第二季度到第三季度。儘管如此，正如我所說，我們看到紙漿和造紙業務出現了一些配額和停工。所以，是的，這反映了我們認為第三季度甚至下半年的定價情況。

I think it's interesting, Ketan, if you step back and look at it from a long-term perspective, this renewable energy that's taking off across the United States right now, solar, wind. There's a lot of biofuel work and sustainable jet fuel work and bioplastics work that's going on right now. And I think I read the other day, there's something like $70 billion worth of new capital investment that's going into the U.S. South announced projects that, by and large, are going to use pulpwood and/or mill residuals to provide the raw material feedstock for those mills.

我認為這很有趣，科坦，如果你退後一步，從長遠的角度來看，太陽能、風能等可再生能源正在美國各地蓬勃發展。目前正在進行大量的生物燃料工作、可持續航空燃料工作和生物塑料工作。我想我前幾天讀到，有大約價值 700 億美元的新資本投資將進入美國南方宣布的項目，這些項目總體上將使用紙漿木材和/或工廠剩餘物為那些工廠。

So you could look at it and say, well, prices are going to be down quarter-over-quarter. But I think long term, especially in the weaker pulpwood markets across the South and I would include Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and that region, I think the long-term outlook is actually quite bright given all the work that's underway.

所以你可以看看它並說，價格將會逐季度下降。但我認為從長遠來看，特別是在南部紙漿木材市場疲軟的情況下，包括密西西比州、路易斯安那州、阿肯色州和該地區，考慮到正在進行的所有工作，我認為長期前景實際上相當光明。

Got it. No, that's helpful color, Eric. Other question that I had was around European lumber. I know that the amount of lumber that's coming in has come down. I'm just curious in terms of the inventory that's sitting out along the East Coast, do you have a sense of kind of where it stands, just qualitatively, have we worked through most of that? Or is there still some inventory that's sitting out on the port?

知道了。不，這是有用的顏色，埃里克。我的另一個問題是關於歐洲木材的。我知道進來的木材量已經下降。我只是對東海岸的庫存感到好奇，你是否知道它的現狀，就質量而言，我們是否已經解決了其中的大部分問題？或者港口是否還有一些庫存？

I don't know specifically, Ketan. I mean I can only get my information from our sales team, which is all anecdotal information. But I think those volumes have come down quite a bit. We're not -- it seems like -- it feels like we're not running into European wood in places like Houston, for example, I think we ran into some European wood, and I mean, I think it all makes sense that European imports into the U.S. would be coming down.

我具體不知道，科坦。我的意思是我只能從我們的銷售團隊那裡得到我的信息，這些都是軼事信息。但我認為這些數量已經下降了很多。我們沒有——看起來——感覺我們沒有在像休斯頓這樣的地方遇到歐洲木材，例如，我認為我們遇到了一些歐洲木材，我的意思是，我認為這一切都是有道理的歐洲對美國的進口將會下降。

Lumber prices have really collapsed over the past 12 months or so. The dollar has gotten weaker here since year-end. Just a whole bunch of reasons why Europe would not find the U.S. quite so attractive. And so you're right, we are seeing those imports start to roll over. And I think that trend is going to continue as we move through the year.

在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡，木材價格確實暴跌。自去年年底以來，美元一直走弱。歐洲不會覺得美國那麼有吸引力的原因有很多。所以你是對的，我們看到這些進口開始滾動。我認為這一趨勢將在今年繼續下去。

Got it. And 1 final question from my side. In terms of the solar deals, Eric, I thought I heard you say about $200 million of kind of opportunity. Can you talk about, at least for us, how should we think about sort of cadence not trying to pin you down with a specific number and a year. But in terms of sort of time line of this opportunity, how should we think about that?

知道了。我這邊還有最後一個問題。就太陽能交易而言，埃里克，我想我聽到你說大約 2 億美元的機會。您能談談，至少對我們來說，我們應該如何考慮某種節奏，而不是試圖用具體的數字和年份來限制您。但就這個機會的時間安排而言，我們應該如何考慮？

Well, that's a good question, Ketan. What I'd tell you right now is that what we have under option is 5 different deals, and of those 5 different deals, it's roughly 16,000 acres. That's roughly 2/3 of those are sale transactions and roughly 1/3 is a lease type of a transaction. Now the options that are in place for these deals, they run anywhere from 2 to 5 years. So the developer has the option to pull the trigger and proceed with the deal for anywhere from 2 to 5 years. I think these guys, they're all securing about trying to line up their equipment, trying to line up, who are they going to sell the power to, all the engineering work that needs to be done, and they won't pull the trigger on exercising the option for the land until the very last minute.

嗯，這是個好問題，科坦。我現在要告訴你的是，我們可以選擇的是 5 項不同的交易，而在這 5 項不同的交易中，大約有 16,000 英畝。其中大約 2/3 是銷售交易，大約 1/3 是租賃類型的交易。現在，這些交易的期限為 2 至 5 年。因此，開發商可以選擇扣動扳機並繼續進行為期 2 至 5 年的交易。我認為這些人，他們都在努力嘗試排列他們的設備，嘗試排列，他們要把電力賣給誰，所有需要完成的工程工作，他們不會拉動直到最後一刻才行使土地選擇權。

But I would tell you, we've seen a couple of solar deals closed now, 1 closed on CatchMark ground and 1 closed on Potlatch ground. We've got 5 deals that are under option. We've got another 4 deals that we're negotiating right now that we think are going to be done by the end of the year. And then we're having conversations with a bunch of more folks that I'm not even really talking about here today.

但我想告訴你，我們已經看到幾筆太陽能交易現已完成，其中 1 筆在 CatchMark 場地完成，1 筆在 Potlatch 場地完成。我們有 5 筆交易可供選擇。我們現在還有另外 4 項交易正在談判，我們認為這些交易將在今年年底前完成。然後我們正在與更多的人進行對話，而我今天在這裡並沒有真正談論這些。

So the momentum is only building for this solar opportunity. And I think it's remarkable when you think about what's under option and what we're negotiating, this roughly $200 million of NPV, it's roughly 20,000 acres of our land that we're talking about transacting for solar outcome. So 20,000 acres, roughly 1% of our land, but yet a $200 million out of our enterprise value of who knows, call it $5 billion, 1% of our land for, call it, 4% of our enterprise value, that's a pretty good trade. And again, if it feels to me like the momentum in this business is only picking up, and that IRA legislation that was passed provided a lot of incentives for renewable energy, and that's really what's behind all this momentum.

因此，這一太陽能機會的勢頭正在增強。我認為，當你考慮到可供選擇的內容和我們正在談判的內容時，這很了不起，這大約是 2 億美元的 NPV，我們正在談論的太陽能成果交易涉及我們大約 20,000 英畝的土地。因此，20,000 英畝，大約占我們土地的1%，但我們企業價值中的2 億美元，誰知道呢，稱之為50 億美元，我們土地的1%，稱之為我們企業價值的4% ，這是一個相當不錯的數字。良好的貿易。再說一次，如果我覺得這個行業的勢頭只是在回升，並且愛爾蘭共和軍立法的通過為可再生能源提供了很多激勵措施，那麼這確實是所有這種勢頭背後的原因。

Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

This is Greg on for Anthony. Just a quick question for me on Real Estate. So I think you mentioned 70,000 acres in the acquired CatchMark portfolio can be sold at higher values than timberlands. It seems like a pretty large amount to me. I'm just hoping you could provide some color on the types of opportunities you've identified and what premium you expect you can capture on the HBU lands. And just as a point of clarification, how many of those 70,000 acres are included in the $200 million for solar land sales and leases?

這是格雷格替補安東尼。我想問一個關於房地產的簡單問題。因此，我認為您提到收購的 CatchMark 投資組合中的 70,000 英畝土地可以以比林地更高的價格出售。對我來說這似乎是一個相當大的數額。我只是希望您能提供一些關於您已發現的機會類型以及您期望在 HBU 土地上獲得的溢價的信息。需要澄清的是，這 70,000 英畝土地中有多少包含在 2 億美元的太陽能土地銷售和租賃中？

Yes. Great. So when it comes to the CatchMark certification that we just completed, yes, we've about -- we acquired 350,000 acres. And so we identified almost 20% of those acres or about 70,000 acres is higher premiums to timber values. And that's driven off of recreation, potential, conservation, adjacent land owners, even solar potentials. And the reason, I think, for that higher percentage is, we're near some large population areas. So just that has increased the potential for premiums on those values.

是的。偉大的。因此，當談到我們剛剛完成的 CatchMark 認證時，是的，我們已經獲得了 350,000 英畝的土地。因此，我們發現其中近 20%（即約 70,000 英畝）的木材價值更高。這會影響娛樂、潛力、保護、鄰近土地所有者，甚至太陽能潛力。我認為，比例較高的原因是，我們靠近一些人口稠密的地區。因此，這增加了這些價值溢價的可能性。

And I think the next thing is when we look at what CatchMark had historically done, they were selling Timberland for a premium at timber values. But our approach is, we're selling HBU for a higher premium. And we're providing a little bit different product to the market than what CatchMark did and historically had done. So I think we're looking at more tracks, but a higher value per acre. And again, that's driven off of these opportunities around recreation, conservation, adjacent landowners and so forth. And we've already started listing some of these properties, and we're really seeing some -- we're pleased with the activity that we've seen so far.

我認為接下來的事情是，當我們看看 CatchMark 歷史上所做的事情時，他們以木材價格溢價出售 Timberland。但我們的方法是，我們以更高的溢價出售 HBU。我們向市場提供的產品與 CatchMark 所做的和歷史上所做的略有不同。所以我認為我們正在尋找更多的賽道，但每英畝的價值更高。而且，這又剝奪了圍繞娛樂、保護、鄰近土地所有者等的機會。我們已經開始列出其中一些屬性，並且我們確實看到了一些 - 我們對迄今為止所看到的活動感到滿意。

And then as it relates to your question on the solar, no, none of the stratification is included in the $200 million that Eric referred to.

然後，由於它涉及到你關於太陽能的問題，不，埃里克提到的 2 億美元中沒有包含任何分層。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just a quick 1 on the lumber sales -- lumber volumes, excuse me, the big box retailers, you mentioned are up 17% year-over-year. Can you speak -- maybe if possible, can you speak to how much of that may have been driven by inventory rebuild? Inventories reached very low levels in the first half. So how much of that was driven by a rebuild, and I guess where are inventories now at these big box retailers in August? And what level of fall demand do you think they're preparing for?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後簡單介紹一下木材銷售情況——您提到的大型零售商的木材銷量同比增長了 17%。您能否談談——如果可能的話，您能談談其中有多少可能是由庫存重建推動的嗎？上半年庫存達到非常低的水平。那麼其中有多少是由重建推動的，我想這些大型零售商八月份的庫存在哪裡？您認為他們正在為秋季需求的水平做好準備嗎？

Yes, Greg, I don't think I can answer your question. All I would say is we've seen pretty steady takeaway at the end of the day from the home centers. I don't think this was driven by an inventory rebuild. I also don't know that their lumber volumes are necessarily up 17% year-to-date. I think it may have something to do with the specific product that we're selling them, which are studs, which tend to be used in a wide variety of applications. So I wouldn't read into this that their lumber business is up 17%.

是的，格雷格，我想我無法回答你的問題。我想說的是，我們在一天結束時看到了來自主場中心的相當穩定的外賣。我不認為這是由庫存重建驅動的。我也不知道他們的木材量今年迄今是否一定增長了 17%。我認為這可能與我們銷售的特定產品有關，這些產品是螺柱，往往用於多種應用。所以我不會解讀他們的木材業務增長了 17%。

I would just reiterate that our sales through those channels have been very, very steady, which indicates to me that the repair and remodel business is also very steady. It's not going through some catastrophic decline here. It's hanging in there pretty good. That's what I would read into it.

我想重申一下，我們通過這些渠道的銷售非常非常穩定，這表明維修和改造業務也非常穩定。這裡並沒有經歷災難性的衰退。掛在那裡還不錯。這就是我要讀到的內容。

Our next question comes from Michael Roxland from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

Just one with respect to the housing, the improvement in housing, what are you seeing regarding lumber curtailments. Have you seen any mills, (inaudible) mills jump back into the freight to try to capitalize on better demand at higher prices?

只是一個關於住房的問題，住房的改善，以及您對木材削減的看法。您是否見過任何工廠，（聽不清）工廠重新投入貨運，試圖以更高的價格利用更好的需求？

No. Michael, we've seen roughly 3 billion board feet of curtailments now. Roughly half of that has been announced as a permanent closure and roughly half is the temporary curtailment. It's really hard to get to the data on what individual mills are doing. So I don't know that I've heard of any mills that are starting back up again just for home center R&R demand. Prices have come up, that could compel people to restart their mills, but I have not heard of any at this point.

不，邁克爾，我們現在已經看到大約 30 億板英尺的削減。其中大約一半已宣布永久關閉，大約一半是臨時削減。獲得各個工廠正在做什麼的數據確實很難。所以我不知道有沒有聽說過任何工廠只是為了滿足家庭中心的 R&R 需求而重新啟動。價格上漲，可能迫使人們重新啟動工廠，但目前我還沒有聽說有任何消息。

Got it. And just 1 quick one as well. In terms of what's happened with housing and obviously approved housing market. Have you seen any increased tension resulting in certain timber markets in wood baskets from an improvement in demand for wood products? Or is it too early.

知道了。也只有 1 個快速的。就住房和明顯批准的住房市場發生的情況而言。您是否看到由於木製品需求的改善而導致某些木籃木材市場的緊張局勢加劇？或者說還太早了。

Yes. I would say it's too early. I mean, prices are down slightly, but compared to last year. But I think they've held up quite well what we've expected. So I think that's -- we're encouraged by that. But I think those will kind of hold steady and I think on the long term, we expect those markets to continue detention, and we would expect the Southern prices to continue to increase.

是的。我會說現在還太早。我的意思是，價格略有下降，但與去年相比。但我認為他們很好地達到了我們的預期。所以我認為我們對此感到鼓舞。但我認為這些將保持穩定，我認為從長遠來看，我們預計這些市場將繼續停滯，並且我們預計南方價格將繼續上漲。

Just one last one. Is there typically a lag that you see? Is it 6 months, 9 months where if you have housing improving, and Wood Products improving, is it -- what type of lag do you have between when you start to see attention in the wood baskets versus to the product side?

只剩下最後一張了您通常會看到延遲嗎？是在 6 個月、9 個月內，如果住房有所改善，木製品有所改善，那麼當您開始看到木籃與產品方面的注意力時，您之間有什麼類型的滯後？

Yes. I don't know if we've -- I think there's a lot of factors that go into the prices around not only the demand, but there can be some volatility weather-related and other factors. So, I think -- yes, I don't know if there's a specific timetable on what that lag looks like.

是的。我不知道我們是否——我認為影響價格的因素有很多，不僅與需求有關，還可能存在一些與天氣相關的波動性和其他因素。所以，我認為 - 是的，我不知道是否有關於這種滯後的具體時間表。

I think one of the biggest drivers, Michael, is just going to be lumber inventory that's in the system. The dealers, do they feel compelled like they have to buy the lumber? Or do they look at their existing inventories and say, "You know, I got enough now to meet demand". So I think to Wayne's point, there's just a whole host of factors that weigh into how long that process takes.

我認為最大的驅動因素之一，邁克爾，就是系統中的木材庫存。經銷商們，他們是否感到必須購買木材？或者他們是否會查看現有庫存並說：“你知道，我現在有足夠的庫存來滿足需求”。所以我認為韋恩的觀點是，有很多因素會影響這個過程需要多長時間。

Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger from D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yiner。戴維森。

I just want to start out on Wood Products. Could you just talk about how you're thinking about log and unit manufacturing costs kind of heading into Q3 and also just give us an update on the industrial plywood business. I mean it looks like that was a decent drag in Q2. I'm curious if that's tied to the weakness in the RV market at all?

我只想從木製品開始。您能否談談您對進入第三季度的原木和單位製造成本的看法，並為我們介紹一下工業膠合板業務的最新情況。我的意思是，看起來這對第二季度來說是一個相當大的拖累。我很好奇這是否與房車市場的疲軟有關？

Yes, Kurt. So the first thing is, going into Q3, I do think that processing costs and log costs are going to be lower in Q3 versus Q2. And we'll continue to get benefits out of our Ola mill, our cost per thousand and Ola is going to continue to decline. Similarly, some of our mills in the South, like Warren, for example, lost some shifts in Q2 due to a power outage and that cost us some volume in Q2. So we'll get better absorption of overhead costs in Q3 versus Q2.

是的，庫爾特。因此，第一件事是，進入第三季度，我確實認為第三季度的處理成本和日誌成本將低於第二季度。我們將繼續從 Ola 工廠中獲益，我們的每千人成本和 Ola 將繼續下降。同樣，我們在南方的一些工廠，例如沃倫，由於停電而在第二季度失去了一些班次，這導致我們在第二季度損失了一些產量。因此，與第二季度相比，我們將在第三季度更好地吸收管理費用。

And fiber costs at St. Maries have been coming down. So I think we are going to see lower costs per thousand in Q3 versus Q2 to answer your first question.

聖瑪麗斯的光纖成本一直在下降。因此，我認為我們將在第三季度看到比第二季度更低的每千人成本來回答你的第一個問題。

Your second question regarding, yes, plywood and residuals, they were a drag, nearly $4 million comparing Q2 to Q1. And our industrial grade plywood business maybe we've talked about this before, but we're really producing high-quality plywood for using things like boats and RVs and truck panels, things that are typically financed by consumers, and as we've seen interest rates increase, of course, demand for these items has dropped. So as demand has dropped, pricing has dropped. So the plywood business has been under pressure.

你的第二個問題是關於，是的，膠合板和殘餘物，它們是一個拖累，與第二季度和第一季度相比，它們接近 400 萬美元。我們的工業級膠合板業務也許我們之前已經討論過這一點，但我們實際上是在生產高質量的膠合板，用於船舶、房車和卡車面板等通常由消費者資助的東西，正如我們所看到的利率上升，當然，這些物品的需求就下降了。因此，隨著需求下降，價格也會下降。因此，膠合板業務一直面臨壓力。

Now we do think that's going to turn around as we get into Q3. We do think demand is starting to come back. Some of our dealers really brought their inventory levels to rock bottom levels in Q3, and we think they're going to start rebuilding in -- excuse me, Q2, they're going to start rebuilding inventories in Q3. And so we think demand is starting to come back to that business.

現在我們確實認為隨著進入第三季度，這種情況將會發生逆轉。我們確實認為需求正在開始回升。我們的一些經銷商確實在第三季度將庫存水平降至最低水平，我們認為他們將在第三季度開始重建庫存，對不起，第二季度，他們將在第三季度開始重建庫存。因此，我們認為該業務的需求已開始回升。

And on the residual side, yes, we had some outages from some customers in the second quarter, in particular, Packaging Corps, Wallula Containerboard Mill in Washington State. They're taking downtime. I don't think we're going to start back up until, I don't know, fourth quarter perhaps. Out in Michigan, Billerud got a, I think, a paper mill that took 3 weeks of downtime. You may recall, they had some kind of a fungus that was running through their mill. They took 3 weeks of downtime in Q2 due to some fungus outbreak. So frankly, I think the way I would characterize it is that Q2 is a low point. And I think when you look at our results for Q3, you'll see that variance. You'll see that flip back to a positive variance again.

在剩餘方面，是的，我們在第二季度遇到了一些客戶的停電，特別是包裝公司、華盛頓州的瓦盧拉集裝箱紙板廠。他們正在休息。我認為我們不會重新開始，直到，我不知道，也許第四季度。我認為，比勒魯德在密歇根州有一家造紙廠，停工了三週。您可能還記得，他們的工廠裡有某種真菌。由於一些真菌爆發，他們在第二季度停工了 3 週。坦率地說，我認為我的描述方式是第二季度是一個低點。我認為當您查看第三季度的結果時，您會看到這種差異。您會看到方差再次翻轉回正值。

Got it. Fungus outbreak. That's a new one. I guess turning to the forest carbon project. Could you maybe talk about where that's located? And any more color that I guess you're willing to provide at this stage around that?

知道了。真菌爆發。那是一個新的。我想轉向森林碳項目。您能談談它的位置嗎？我想您在這個階段願意提供更多的顏色嗎？

Yes, Kurt. So it is in the U.S. South. It is in some hardwood bond lines. It's roughly 50,000 acres in size. I think we're going to get it done across the goal line sometime in the first half of next year, we think that our project is going to involve about the highest quality carbon credits that are possible. So consequently, we expect pricing for our carbon credits to be quite high. So I'm really quite optimistic about this piece of our business. When you think about all the net 0 pledges that are being made out there by companies around the world. And I read something the other day, it's like 9,000 international companies have pledged to get to net 0. You got to get there somehow. And even Delta Airlines was just written up as buying flake credits not too long ago.

是的，庫爾特。美國南部也是如此。它存在於一些硬木粘合線中。面積約為50,000英畝。我認為我們將在明年上半年的某個時候完成目標，我們認為我們的項目將涉及盡可能最高質量的碳信用額。因此，我們預計碳信用額的定價會相當高。所以我對我們的這一部分業務非常樂觀。當你想到世界各地的公司做出的所有淨零承諾時。前幾天我讀到過一些東西，好像有 9,000 家國際公司承諾要實現淨 0。你必須以某種方式實現這一目標。就連達美航空不久前也被描述為購買小額積分。

So increasingly, companies that have made net 0 pledges, they want high-quality credits. And that's the type that we're going to offer them. And the other thing that I would highlight is that there's a lot of private capital that's now flowing into the carbon credit space in forestry, think about Oak Hill, Manulife, JPMorgan. So we think our -- I think I heard warehousers say something about, I don't know, $20 a ton or something like that. I think that our carbon prices, it's early to say, but they could be $20 to $40 a ton somewhere in that range, and it could be roughly 100,000 tons of credits a year or roughly $3 million a year of EBITDA, more or less.

因此，越來越多做出淨零承諾的公司希望獲得高質量的信貸。這就是我們要為他們提供的類型。我要強調的另一件事是，現在有大量私人資本流入林業碳信用領域，想想橡樹山、宏利、摩根大通。所以我們認為我們的——我想我聽到倉庫管理員說過，我不知道，每噸 20 美元或類似的東西。我認為我們的碳價格現在說還為時過早，但可能會在這個範圍內每噸20 至40 美元，而且可能每年大約10 萬噸碳排放量，或者每年大約300 萬美元的EBITDA，或多或少。

We've got a long ways to go to get from here to there to get good, high-quality credits issue. It's a lot of work, but the team is working very hard to get it done. So we'll give you progress updates on this every quarter. But to wrap it up on this, I really am quite optimistic about it.

要獲得良好、高質量的信用發行，我們還有很長的路要走。這是一項艱鉅的工作，但團隊正在非常努力地完成它。因此，我們每個季度都會向您提供這方面的最新進展。但總而言之，我對此非常樂觀。

Got it. Okay. Yes, that's super helpful color, Eric. I appreciate it. And then just lastly, I guess talking broadly, what are you seeing out there in terms of timberland transaction activity and the opportunity set for PotlatchDeltic at this stage?

知道了。好的。是的，這是非常有用的顏色，埃里克。我很感激。最後，我想從廣義上講，您在林地交易活動和現階段為 PotlatchDeltic 提供的機會方面看到了什麼？

Yes. Well, the timberland M&A market, it's relatively quiet right now. And we think people are holding off with their properties. I don't know they're waiting for lumber prices to improve. They're waiting for interest rates to come down. They're waiting for some carbon deals to get accomplished, so people have more faith in that value stream. So the market's kind of quiet right now. And the stuff that is getting brought to market is going for a very high price.

是的。那麼，Timberland 併購市場目前相對平靜。我們認為人們正在推遲他們的財產。我不知道他們正在等待木材價格上漲。他們正在等待利率下降。他們正在等待一些碳交易的完成，因此人們對這一價值流更有信心。所以現在市場有點安靜。進入市場的東西價格非常高。

I think we've completed over the past year or so in 7 different M&A transactions, and we've been in the bottom half and virtually every single -- bottom half of bidders in every one of those transactions. We're sticking to our traditional valuation metrics. Our cost of capital has gone up. Yet it seems as though the value of timberland has only gone up. So what that's forcing us to do is to, and we've always done this, and I think we're actually particularly good at it. We're proceeding with deals that are off the auction market. So they're one-off deals where we think we can get a particularly good deal at the end of the day. It's hard to create value when you've got -- well, there's 1 deal that we did where there were 48 bidders. If you can imagine that. So you're not going to create shareholder value, winning an auction where you're competing against 47 other bidders. So we're going to try to go find those one-off deals where the auction intensity is not quite so high and we think we can get a good deal on an off-market property.

我認為我們在過去一年左右的時間裡完成了 7 筆不同的併購交易，而且在每筆交易中，我們都處於下半段，而且幾乎每一個投標人都處於下半段。我們堅持傳統的估值指標。我們的資金成本上升了。然而，林地的價值似乎只增不減。所以這迫使我們做的是，我們一直這樣做，而且我認為我們實際上特別擅長。我們正在進行拍賣市場之外的交易。因此，它們是一次性交易，我們認為最終我們可以得到一筆特別划算的交易。當你有 48 個競標者時，我們就很難創造價值了——嗯，我們完成了 1 筆交易。如果你能想像的話。因此，您無法在與其他 47 個競標者競爭的拍賣中贏得拍賣，從而創造股東價值。因此，我們將嘗試尋找那些拍賣強度不太高的一次性交易，並且我們認為我們可以在場外房產上獲得一筆不錯的交易。

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

Thank you. Few follow-ups. First, just on the CatchMark stratification. I think you've been selling order of magnitude, 15,000 to 20,000 rural acres last couple of years, I think that's sort of what you view as trend line. Correct me if I'm wrong there. But with the CatchMark stratification, might that bump up a bit in the next couple of years and by how much perhaps if indeed that's the case? Or does it sort of get folded in and you just keep going at a most likely similar rate?

謝謝。後續行動很少。首先，就 CatchMark 的分層而言。我認為過去幾年你一直在出售 15,000 至 20,000 英畝的農村土地，我認為這就是你所認為的趨勢線。如果我錯了請糾正我。但隨著 CatchMark 分層，未來幾年這一數字是否會有所上升？如果確實如此，可能會上升多少？或者它是否會被折疊起來，而你只是以最有可能相似的速度繼續前進？

Yes. There's a couple of things there, Mark. One, when we think about our rural sales program, we really target, and based on our history and what we've been able to accomplish, probably about looking to sell about 1% of our portfolio. So our run rate would be around 20,000 acres a year. And I think with the stratification that still maintains that level. I think one reminder, if you look back even, for example, 2022, we sold around 20,000 acres. Well, half of those acres were tied into Minnesota. So we had about 10,000 acres of Minnesota. Now we've liquidated our portfolio in Minnesota, and now that's shifted to the south. So really, I think, where we've seen, because of liquidation in Minnesota, that's being made up by what we see in our program in the South.

是的。馬克，有幾件事。第一，當我們考慮我們的農村銷售計劃時，根據我們的歷史和我們已經取得的成就，我們真正的目標可能是出售我們投資組合的約 1%。所以我們的運行率每年約為 20,000 英畝。我認為分層仍然保持著這個水平。我想提醒一下，如果你回顧一下，例如 2022 年，我們出售了大約 20,000 英畝土地。嗯，其中一半土地屬於明尼蘇達州。所以我們在明尼蘇達州擁有大約 10,000 英畝的土地。現在我們已經清算了明尼蘇達州的投資組合，現在已經轉移到了南方。所以，我認為，實際上，我們所看到的，由於明尼蘇達州的清算，我們在南方的計劃中所看到的情況正在彌補這一點。

Okay. And on the carbon credits, Eric, you threw out kind of 100,000 tons per year. Is that specific to the 50,000 acres where you are working? Or is that kind of more -- is that number perhaps based on something beyond the 50,000? And did I hear you right that you would expect that to be a recurring number as opposed to having to go out and create new projects to keep that number in the 100,000 tons per year range?

好的。在碳信用額方面，埃里克，你每年扔掉大約 10 萬噸。這是特定於您工作的 50,000 英畝土地嗎？或者是更多——這個數字可能是基於超過 50,000 的數字嗎？我沒聽錯吧，您希望這是一個經常性的數字，而不是必須出去創建新項目才能將該數字保持在每年 10 萬噸的範圍內？

Yes. We think the property that we're looking at, it will generate roughly 100,000 -- or excuse me, 100,000 credits per year for the life of the project. So we're not done finalizing the project, but it could be a 30-year kind of a project where we sell these credits every year. And at roughly, if we pick the midpoint, $20 to $40 a ton range, we picked the midpoint $30. That would be roughly $3 million a year of carbon credit sales.

是的。我們認為我們正在關注的財產在項目生命週期內每年將產生大約 100,000 個積分——或者對不起，每年 100,000 個積分。所以我們還沒有完成該項目的最終確定，但這可能是一個為期 30 年的項目，我們每年都會出售這些積分。粗略地說，如果我們選擇中點，即每噸 20 美元到 40 美元的範圍，我們會選擇中點 30 美元。這相當於每年大約 300 萬美元的碳信用額銷售。

Okay. That would be pretty good. And let's just see 1 last question. You know, lumber markets, it kind of feels like pricing is a little bit wobbly again, I guess, seasonality could be part of the explanation. But we talked about housing being strong. You've talked about repair and remodel still being pretty stable. What are your thoughts? What's going on? And what your crystal ball tell you as to how things might play out through the rest of this year, if you're willing to share?

好的。那就太好了。讓我們看看最後一個問題。你知道，木材市場，感覺價格又有點不穩定，我想，季節性可能是部分原因。但我們談到了住房市場的強勁。您談到修復和改造仍然相當穩定。你怎麼看？這是怎麼回事？如果您願意分享的話，您的水晶球會告訴您今年剩下的時間裡事情會如何發展？

Yes, Mark, I wouldn't say they're wobbly necessarily. I would say they feel like they're kind of plateauing here. You're right. We've had several weeks of random lengths just every week, it was higher and higher and higher, and that was driven by a whole bunch of things, fire's up in Canada, European imports rolling over, better housing data.

是的，馬克，我不會說它們一定是不穩定的。我想說的是，他們感覺自己在這裡已經趨於穩定了。你說得對。我們每週都有幾週的隨機長度，它越來越高，這是由一大堆因素驅動的，加拿大的火勢旺盛，歐洲進口滾動，更好的住房數據。

And now I think about those factors, for example, well fires are starting to impact the U.S. West. We've seen some pop-up out here in the West, no impact to our ground by the way, but we've seen fire activity start to pick up. But the fire activity up in Canada, I feel like it's kind of starting to roll over a little bit. I heard Weyerhaeuser talk about. They restarted their 2 mills in Alberta that were impacted, for example. But we've also seen European imports roll over. And we've also -- the latest housing print was not quite as strong as the prior ones. And you're also getting into the time of the year where you do get into a little bit of seasonal weakness as we get out into those winter months.

現在我考慮這些因素，例如，井火開始影響美國西部。我們在西部地區看到了一些突然出現的火災，順便說一句，對我們的地面沒有影響，但我們看到火災活動開始加劇。但加拿大的火災活動有所增加，我覺得它開始有所緩解。我聽到惠好公司談論過。例如，他們重新啟動了位於艾伯塔省的 2 家受到影響的工廠。但我們也看到歐洲進口量出現下滑。我們還發現，最新的住房印刷品並不像之前的那麼強大。而且，當我們進入冬季時，你也會進入一年中的一些季節，確實會出現一些季節性疲軟。

So I don't anticipate a collapse in prices. Clearly, the first quarter was a low point in my mind for the year. We've had a nice run here, and I expect these prices to kind of stay where they're at or maybe drift slightly lower as we move into Q4.

所以我預計價格不會暴跌。顯然，第一季度是我心目中今年的最低點。我們在這裡表現不錯，我預計這些價格會保持在原來的水平，或者可能會在進入第四季度時略有下降。

Our next question comes from Paul Quinn from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Paul Quinn。

So on this carbon capture, just wondering if you could help us understand the 50,000 acre project you've got. What are the timberlands like in that area? Is that marginal timberlands and are you planning any kind of projects for, say, some of the stuff that you've got in northern areas like Idaho?

關於碳捕獲，我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您所擁有的 50,000 英畝的項目。該地區的林地怎麼樣？那是邊緣林地嗎？您是否正在計劃任何類型的項目，例如，您在愛達荷州等北部地區擁有的一些東西？

Yes. So this is our first deal that we're looking at getting done, Paul. It's very -- again, to issue good credits, high-quality credits, which is where the money is, it's a painstaking process. This is not a high-quality industrial grade plantation forestry in the South. This is hardwood bottom lands that can be harvested, but it may not be harvested year round. It may be difficult to harvest tracks. But yet, it's still a property that we would look to harvest if we didn't put it into a carbon program. So carbon values are not yet to the point where they impact plantation forestry. But we'll see with demand being what it is for carbon credits and supply being where it is, demand is just far outpacing supply. So they're assuming companies stick to their net 0 commitments, there's upward price pressure on carbon credits.

是的。所以這是我們希望完成的第一筆交易，保羅。再次強調，要發行良好的信用、高質量的信用，這就是錢的所在，這是一個艱苦的過程。這不是南方優質的工業級人工林。這是可以收穫的硬木窪地，但可能無法全年收穫。收集足跡可能很困難。但是，如果我們不將其納入碳計劃，它仍然是我們希望收穫的財產。因此，碳值尚未達到影響人工林的程度。但我們會看到，隨著碳信用額的需求和供應的增加，需求將遠遠超過供應。因此，他們假設公司堅持其淨零承諾，碳信用額將面臨價格上漲的壓力。

And as it relates to Idaho, yes, once we get this first deal done, I think we're going to learn a lot from this deal, and we'll apply that knowledge to all of our acres, just like we always do. We're out to maximize the value of each and every acre that we own. And I'm sure we'll look at acreage in Idaho to see if carbon makes sense in Idaho.

就愛達荷州而言，是的，一旦我們完成了第一筆交易，我認為我們將從這筆交易中學到很多東西，我們將把這些知識應用到我們所有的土地上，就像我們一直做的那樣。我們致力於最大化我們擁有的每一英畝土地的價值。我確信我們會研究愛達荷州的土地面積，看看碳在愛達荷州是否有意義。

Okay. So given that it's bottom line hardwoods, I suspect that the harvesting impact, long-term harvesting impact by setting up in a carbon project is not going to be material?

好的。因此，考慮到它是硬木的底線，我懷疑建立碳項目對採伐的影響、長期採伐的影響不會很大？

Yes. I wouldn't expect it to be material at the end of the day.

是的。我不認為它最終會變得重要。

Okay. And then on the carbon storage front, any opportunities there for you guys?

好的。那麼在碳儲存方面，你們有什麼機會嗎？

We're still looking at it. We've got great geological formations in Southern Arkansas, where we can store carbon. The key is to have your geologic formation be close to where the emitters are. So that way, you don't have to pipe it or there's not a lot of capital cost to get the carbon to the formation. So we're exploring and this is going to take time. We're also having conversations with folks that want to build biofuel plants of one form or another in Arkansas, and then immediately carbon capture and store the carbon that comes off the process. So it's definitely an opportunity for us. It's just -- it's several years out.

我們仍在關注它。阿肯色州南部有很棒的地質構造，我們可以在那裡儲存碳。關鍵是讓您的地質構造靠近發射器所在的位置。這樣，您就不必通過管道將其輸送到地層，或者無需花費大量資金成本即可將碳輸送到地層。所以我們正在探索，這需要時間。我們還與那些想要在阿肯色州建造一種或另一種形式的生物燃料工廠的人進行對話，然後立即捕獲並儲存過程中產生的碳。所以這對我們來說絕對是一個機會。只是——已經過去了幾年。

Our next question comes from Buck Horne from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的巴克·霍恩。

Most of my questions have been answered. I've just got 1 quick 1 for you on the commercial land sales at Chenal Valley. Just, can you just give a little color on that particular acreage and how you were able to achieve such a high price point and what else do you have, any other crown jewels at Chenal Valley similar to that, that we could factor into the portfolio?

我的大部分問題都得到了解答。我剛剛為您提供了有關 Chenal Valley 商業土地銷售的 1 個快速信息。只是，您能否稍微介紹一下該特定面積，以及您如何能夠達到如此高的價格點，以及您還有什麼，Chenal Valley 的任何其他類似的皇冠上的寶石，我們可以將其納入投資組合中？

Yes, Buck, this is Wayne. Yes, a couple of things. I think the 2 properties that we sold this quarter, 1 was for, I believe, a bank and the other 1 was a medical office, but they were at prime locations. So depending on the location, that really drives the price per acre. I think we have just under 300 acres of commercial land available at Chenal. And I think as we continue to develop the pipeline. As you know, that can be lumpy and it's a little bit challenging to predict when those commercial sales will close. But I think as we continue to increase with residential being positive and that's continuing to go strong. I think as that continues to grow, rooftop density continues to increase, and then I think that only benefit commercial.

是的，巴克，這是韋恩。是的，有幾件事。我認為我們本季度出售的 2 處房產，其中 1 處是一家銀行，另外 1 處是醫療辦公室，但它們都位於黃金地段。因此，根據位置的不同，這確實會影響每英畝的價格。我認為我們在 Chenal 擁有不到 300 英畝的可用商業土地。我認為隨著我們繼續開發管道。如您所知，這可能是不穩定的，並且預測這些商業銷售何時結束有點具有挑戰性。但我認為，隨著住宅市場的積極增長，我們的增長將持續強勁。我認為隨著屋頂密度的不斷增長，屋頂密度也會不斷增加，這只會有利於商業。

At this time, I'm showing that there are no more questions. I'll now turn the call over back to Wayne Wasechek.

此時，我表明沒有更多問題了。我現在將把電話轉回給 Wayne Wasechek。

Yes. Thank you for your questions and your interest in PotlatchDeltic. That concludes our call.

是的。感謝您提出問題以及您對 PotlatchDeltic 的興趣。我們的通話到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for all joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。