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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is John, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic second quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions)
早安.我叫約翰,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加 PotlatchDeltic 2025 年第二季電話會議。(操作員指示)
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne Wasechek, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.
現在,我想請副總裁兼財務長 Wayne Wasechek 先生致開幕詞。先生,您可以繼續。
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Good morning, and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer.
早安,歡迎參加 PotlatchDeltic 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的還有 PotlatchDeltic 總裁兼執行長 Eric Cremers。
This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary statements in our press release on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to the presentation slides and on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com.
本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們新聞稿中簡報投影片和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有關這些前瞻性陳述相關風險的警示性聲明。另請注意,非 GAAP 指標的對帳表可在簡報幻燈片的附錄和我們的網站 www.potlatchdeltic.com 上找到。
I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our second-quarter results and our outlook.
我會將電話轉給 Eric 徵求一些評論,然後我會回顧我們的第二季業績和展望。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you, Wayne. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Yesterday, we announced second-quarter total adjusted EBITDA of $52 million. Despite ongoing macroeconomic and trade policy uncertainty, our overall performance remains solid primarily driven by our Timberlands and our Real Estate segments.
好吧,謝謝你,韋恩。大家早安。感謝您的加入。昨天,我們宣布第二季調整後 EBITDA 總額為 5,200 萬美元。儘管宏觀經濟和貿易政策仍存在不確定性,但我們的整體業績依然穩健,這主要得益於林地和房地產部門的推動。
The Wood Products division earned $2 million in adjusted EBITDA during Q2 as its results were hampered by lower lumber prices and several non-recurring items, which I will touch on in a bit more detail later.
木製品部門在第二季的調整後 EBITDA 為 200 萬美元,因為其業績受到木材價格下跌和幾項非經常性項目的影響,稍後我將更詳細地討論這些內容。
Turning to our business operations. Let's start with a review of our Timberlands division. During the quarter, weather conditions for logging and hauling were favorable, enabling our teams, particularly those in Idaho, to surpass planned harvest volumes. Although we have managed to exceed our projected harvest volumes for the first half of the year, our overall annual harvest plan remains unchanged.
轉向我們的業務運作。讓我們先回顧一下我們的 Timberlands 部門。本季度,伐木和運輸的天氣條件良好,使我們的團隊(特別是愛達荷州的團隊)能夠超越計劃的採伐量。儘管我們已成功超出了上半年的預期收穫量,但我們的年度整體收穫計畫保持不變。
Log prices across the South remained stable in Q2, while our average Idaho sawlog price was higher due to the seasonal impact of lighter logs as well as cedar pricing, which was driven by strong regional demand. In our Wood Products business, overall lumber market conditions remain soft, primarily due to tepid demand in both repair and remodel as well as new residential construction segments. Also, the market anticipated tariffs on imported lumber going into the quarter, and when they failed to materialize, it contributed to a decline in lumber prices, especially for Western SPF.
第二季度,南部地區的原木價格保持穩定,而愛達荷州鋸木的平均價格則因較輕原木的季節性影響以及雪松價格上漲而上漲,而雪松價格則受到強勁的區域需求推動。在我們的木製品業務中,整體木材市場狀況仍然疲軟,主要是由於維修和改造以及新住宅建築領域的需求不溫不火。此外,市場預計本季將對進口木材徵收關稅,而當關稅未能實現時,就會導致木材價格下跌,尤其是西部 SPF 木材價格。
Further, adverse weather conditions in the southern region negatively impacted construction activity, consequently affecting Southern yellow pine pricing. While declining lumber prices added pressure to our second-quarter results, several other factors, including certain onetime items totaling approximately $7 million also negatively impacted Wood Products' financial performance compared to Q2.
此外,南部地區惡劣的天氣條件對建築活動產生了負面影響,從而影響了南方黃鬆的價格。雖然木材價格下跌給我們第二季的業績增加了壓力,但其他幾個因素,包括總額約 700 萬美元的某些一次性項目,也對木製品公司的財務表現產生了負面影響。
First, freight costs surged during the quarter from constrained supply due to seasonal trucking demand for produce as well as a shortage of commercial truck drivers stemming from a recent executive order and Department of Transportation guidelines mandating English language proficiency in drivers. However, we believe these transportation challenges are temporary as we have begun to see improvement in truck availability in recent weeks.
首先,由於農產品季節性卡車運輸需求導致供應受限,以及最近的行政命令和交通部要求司機必須具備英語水平的指導方針導致商業卡車司機短缺,導致本季度運費成本飆升。然而,我們相信這些運輸挑戰是暫時的,因為我們已開始看到這些卡車供應最近幾週有所改善。
Second, the utility providing electricity to our Waldo sawmill conducted unannounced major maintenance on a substation during the second quarter, resulting in lower quality power which caused production and maintenance challenges at the mill. While the substation maintenance has been completed, this temporary disruption had a negative impact on the mills results in the second quarter.
其次,為我們 Waldo 鋸木廠供電的公用事業公司在第二季度對變電站進行了未經宣布的重大維護,導致電力品質下降,為工廠的生產和維護帶來了挑戰。雖然變電站維護已經完成,但這次暫時中斷對工廠第二季的業績產生了負面影響。
Third, a key capital project undertaken this year involved the replacement and upgrade of the sawbox at the St. Maries sawmill. This $3 million project, which we expect to have a nearly 20% IRR, required a period of downtime and subsequent ramp-up, which temporarily affected production levels at the St. Maries sawmill. This project was originally scheduled for installation in the third quarter, but we accelerated this initiative into the second quarter due to the anticipated tariffs on imported machinery from Canada. Lastly, a significant decline in lumber prices at the end of the second quarter resulted in a noncash inventory impairment charge of $3 million compared to the first quarter.
第三,今年開展的一項重點資本項目是更換和升級聖瑪麗鋸木廠的鋸箱。這個耗資 300 萬美元的項目,我們預計其內部收益率將接近 20%,需要一段時間的停機和隨後的加速,這暫時影響了聖瑪麗鋸木廠的生產水平。該項目原定於第三季安裝,但由於預計對從加拿大進口的機械徵收關稅,我們將該計劃提前到第二季。最後,第二季末木材價格大幅下跌,導致非現金庫存減損費用與第一季相比增加 300 萬美元。
Although these items negatively impacted our second-quarter results, we believe that these factors are now largely behind us and expect improved results for Wood Products in the third quarter. Looking ahead, the administrative review on antidumping duties for softwood lumber imported from Canada has been finalized, with the final countervailing duties expected to follow in short order. The average combined duty rate will rise significantly, which will likely result in higher lumber prices across various species. These duties are separate from any potential tariffs that may get announced as the Trump administration completes the Section 232 investigation regarding the impact of imports of lumber and derivative products on national security. If such tariffs are imposed, they are expected to be on top of the duties and could further boost lumber prices.
儘管這些因素對我們的第二季業績產生了負面影響,但我們相信這些因素現在已基本消失,並預計第三季木製品的業績將有所改善。展望未來,對從加拿大進口的軟木反傾銷稅的行政審查已經完成,預計最終反補貼稅將很快出台。平均綜合稅率將大幅上升,這可能會導致各種木材價格上漲。這些關稅與川普政府完成有關進口木材及衍生產品對國家安全影響的第 232 條調查後可能宣布的任何潛在關稅無關。如果徵收此類關稅,預計其稅率將高於關稅,並可能進一步推高木材價格。
Moving to Real Estate. The division delivered another strong quarter, selling 7,500 acres at an average price of $3,100 per acre in Q2, which included a large conservation sale to the Nature Conservancy. Nearly one-third of the acres sold in the first half of the year were associated with conservation sales at significant premiums to timberland value. Our transaction pipeline remains strong as buyers continue to pursue hard assets such as rural land amid considerable volatility across many other asset classes. On the natural climate solutions front, we continue to make steady progress across our various initiatives.
轉向房地產。該部門又一個季度表現強勁,第二季以平均每英畝 3,100 美元的價格售出 7,500 英畝土地,其中包括向大自然保護協會出售的大量保護性土地。今年上半年售出的土地中,近三分之一屬於保護性銷售,其價格遠高於林地價值。由於在許多其他資產類別中出現巨大波動的情況下,買家繼續追求農村土地等硬資產,因此我們的交易管道仍然強勁。在自然氣候解決方案方面,我們的各項措施持續穩步推進。
Starting with solar, the overall market slowed down as participants digested the adjustments made to green energy incentives as part of the reconciliation bill. Despite these changes to incentives, we continue to see activity and healthy interest from solar developers, especially from the larger players in the space. In fact, we are finalizing negotiations on one option that started after the bill was passed, highlighting the fact that developers remain interested in solar even without the investment tax credits.
從太陽能開始,隨著參與者消化作為和解法案一部分的綠色能源激勵措施的調整,整體市場放緩。儘管激勵措施發生了這些變化,我們仍然看到太陽能開發商,特別是該領域的大型開發商的熱情和濃厚興趣。事實上,我們正在就法案通過後開始的一項選擇進行最終談判,強調即使沒有投資稅收抵免,開發商仍然對太陽能感興趣。
Once this option is executed, our outstanding solar option portfolio will total approximately 43,000 acres at an estimated net present value of nearly $550 million. Additionally, lithium continues to be another promising NCS opportunity for us. We placed 900 acres under option with the lithium developer in the first quarter and expect to add significantly more acres under option by the end of the year.
一旦該選擇權被執行,我們未償還的太陽能選擇權組合將總計約 43,000 英畝,估計淨現值接近 5.5 億美元。此外,鋰仍然是我們另一個有前景的 NCS 機會。我們在第一季向鋰業開發商提供了 900 英畝土地的選擇權,並預計到今年年底將增加更多英畝的選擇權。
The Smackover Formation in Southwest Arkansas continues to attract significant interest from lithium developers, including major energy companies, such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
位於阿肯色州西南部的 Smackover 地層繼續吸引鋰開發商的濃厚興趣,其中包括埃克森美孚和雪佛龍等大型能源公司。
We are also continuing to pursue opportunities related to forest carbon offsets, carbon capture and storage, and emerging markets for biomass, such as bioenergy and sustainable aviation fuel. We are excited about the potential optionality timberland ownership provides and remain focused on growing our natural climate solutions opportunities.
我們也將繼續尋求與森林碳補償、碳捕獲和儲存以及生物能源和永續航空燃料等生物質新興市場相關的機會。我們對林地所有權所提供的潛在選擇性感到興奮,並將繼續專注於增加我們的自然氣候解決方案機會。
Shifting to our capital allocation strategy. Our priorities remained centered on activities that we expect to create long-term value for our shareholders. This includes maintaining our dividend, key capital investments, and opportunistic share repurchases, all while preserving flexibility as we navigate challenging market conditions.
轉向我們的資本配置策略。我們的重點仍然集中在我們期望為股東創造長期價值的活動上。這包括維持我們的股息、關鍵資本投資和機會性股票回購,同時在我們應對充滿挑戰的市場條件時保持靈活性。
With our stock trading at a significant discount to our estimated net asset value and now yielding over 4.5%, share repurchases emerged as the top capital allocation opportunity in the second quarter. Consequently, we purchased $56 million of our common stock through our 10b5-1 program at an average price of $39 per share during Q2. Notably, this was the company's largest share repurchase volume within a single quarter or year since becoming a REIT back in 2006.
由於我們的股票交易價格大幅低於我們的估計淨資產價值,且目前收益率超過 4.5%,因此股票回購成為第二季最重要的資本配置機會。因此,我們在第二季度透過 10b5-1 計劃以每股 39 美元的平均價格購買了價值 5,600 萬美元的普通股。值得注意的是,這是該公司自 2006 年成為房地產投資信託基金以來單季或年度內最大的股票回購量。
After deploying $60 million in cash for share repurchases in the first half of this year, we continue to maintain a solid financial position, have the flexibility to navigate the current macroeconomic environment and remain opportunistic with capital deployment as we move forward.
在今年上半年部署了 6000 萬美元現金用於股票回購之後,我們繼續保持穩固的財務狀況,能夠靈活應對當前的宏觀經濟環境,並在未來的發展中繼續把握資本部署的機會。
Now turning to the US housing market. Uncertainty surrounding trade policy and other macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on affordability and buyer sentiment. Persistently elevated mortgage interest rates and economic uncertainty have kept many potential buyers on the sidelines.
現在轉向美國房地產市場。貿易政策和其他宏觀經濟逆風的不確定性繼續影響著人們的負擔能力和購買情緒。持續高企的抵押貸款利率和經濟不確定性使得許多潛在買家持觀望態度。
In the second quarter, average total housing starts hovered just above 1.3 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis with average single-family starts around 900,000 units. New residential construction retreated slightly along with a higher proportion of average starts shifting to multifamily during the quarter. However, housing starts remain relatively stable given current market dynamics.
第二季度,經季節性調整後,平均新屋開工總數略高於 130 萬套,其中單戶住宅開工平均約 90 萬套。本季度,新住宅建設略有下降,同時平均開工量中轉向多戶住宅的比例有所增加。然而,鑑於目前的市場動態,新屋開工量仍然相對穩定。
To stimulate demand for new home construction, builders continue to adapt by offering smaller homes, price reductions and mortgage rate buy-downs. Nonetheless, the long-term fundamentals of housing demand remain intact. These include a persistent housing shortage, demographic tailwinds for millennial household formation and a growing population of renters transitioning toward ownership. As affordability pressures ease, we expect these structural drivers to reassert themselves, supporting future growth in housing activity and by extension, lumber demand.
為了刺激新房屋建設需求,建商繼續採取各種措施,包括提供較小的房屋、降低價格和降低抵押貸款利率。儘管如此,住房需求的長期基本面依然完好。其中包括持續的住房短缺、千禧世代家庭組成的人口結構順風以及越來越多的租屋者轉向擁有房產。隨著負擔能力壓力的減輕,我們預計這些結構性驅動因素將重新發揮作用,支持未來住房活動的成長,進而支持木材需求的成長。
Moving on to the repair and remodel sector, activity has remained relatively subdued. Ongoing economic uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on discretionary home improvement spending particularly for larger-scale remodeling projects. However, the latest readings from both the leading indicator of remodeling activity from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University and the National Association of Homebuilders still forecast slight gains for expenditures on home improvements and maintenance in 2025, followed by more modest but still positive growth in 2026.
至於修復和改造領域,活動仍然相對低迷。持續的經濟不確定性和高昂的借貸成本繼續對可自由支配的家居裝修支出造成壓力,特別是對於較大規模的改造項目。然而,哈佛大學住房聯合研究中心和全國住宅建築商協會的最新住房改造活動領先指標仍預測,2025 年住房改善和維護支出將略有增長,2026 年將出現較為溫和但仍為正的增長。
For our business, we continue to see steady takeaway from our home center customers. We anticipate this trend will continue through the second half of the year, especially as homeowners complete deferred maintenance and mid-scale renovation projects. Importantly, the long-term fundamentals of the repair and remodel market segment remain unchanged. These include an aging housing stock now with a median age over 44 years, historically high levels of home equity, and the continued prevalence of hybrid and remote work arrangements, which drive demand for functional and aesthetic home upgrades.
對於我們的業務而言,我們繼續看到來自家居中心客戶的穩定收益。我們預計這一趨勢將持續到今年下半年,特別是當房主完成延期維護和中型翻新項目時。重要的是,維修和改造市場領域的長期基本面保持不變。其中包括老化房屋存量(目前平均年齡超過 44 年)、歷史高水準的房屋淨值以及混合和遠端工作安排的持續盛行,這些都推動了對功能性和美觀性住宅升級的需求。
To close out my comments, while uncertainty in near-term headwinds remain in the market, we have a favorable view of long-term fundamentals that drive demand in our industry. Looking forward, we believe lumber prices have bottomed out for the year as we are starting to see prices trend higher. We are optimistic that the increase in Canadian softwood lumber duties and any potential Section 232 tariffs will have a positive effect on domestic lumber prices as we work through the back half of the year. Our strong balance sheet and excellent capital allocation track record, combined with operational execution and cost discipline, positions us to deliver long-term value to our shareholders.
最後,我想說的是,儘管短期內市場仍存在不確定性,但我們對推動產業需求的長期基本面持樂觀態度。展望未來,我們相信木材價格今年已經觸底,因為我們開始看到價格呈現上漲趨勢。我們樂觀地認為,加拿大軟木材關稅的增加以及任何潛在的第 232 條關稅將在下半年對國內木材價格產生積極影響。我們強勁的資產負債表和出色的資本配置記錄,加上營運執行和成本控制,使我們能夠為股東創造長期價值。
I will now turn it over to Wayne to discuss our second quarter results and our outlook.
現在我將把時間交給韋恩來討論我們的第二季業績和展望。
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Thank you, Eric. Starting from page 4 of the slides. Total adjusted EBITDDA was $52 million in the second quarter compared to $63 million in the first quarter. This sequential quarter-over-quarter decrease in adjusted EBITDDA is primarily attributed to seasonally lower harvest volumes and higher forest management costs in our Timberlands segment, along with an inventory impairment charge and certain onetime costs in Wood Products.
謝謝你,埃里克。從投影片的第 4 頁開始。第二季調整後 EBITDDA 總額為 5,200 萬美元,而第一季為 6,300 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDDA 環比下降主要歸因於林地部門季節性採伐量下降和森林管理成本上升,以及木製品部門的庫存減損費用和某些一次性成本。
I will now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our second quarter results. Information regarding our Timberlands segment is presented on slides 5 through 7. The segment's adjusted EBITDDA decreased from $42 million in the first quarter to $40 million in the second quarter. In Idaho, 360,000 tons were harvested in the second quarter, representing a slight decrease from the 368,000 tons harvested in the first quarter.
我現在將回顧我們的各個營運部門,並詳細介紹我們的第二季業績。有關我們的 Timberlands 部門的資訊在第 5 至第 7 張幻燈片中展示。該部門的調整後 EBITDDA 從第一季的 4,200 萬美元下降至第二季的 4,000 萬美元。愛達荷州第二季收穫了 36 萬噸,較第一季的 36.8 萬噸略有下降。
While a seasonally lower harvest volume in the second quarter was anticipated, we capitalized on favorable logging and hauling conditions as well as adequate contractor availability to exceed the planned volume. The favorable conditions we experienced during the first half of the year have allowed us to make great progress on our 2025 planned harvest volume.
雖然預計第二季的採伐量將因季節性原因而降低,但我們利用有利的伐木和運輸條件以及充足的承包商可用性來超越計劃採伐量。上半年的有利條件使我們在2025年計畫收穫量方面取得了巨大進展。
Sawlog prices in Idaho rose by 9% per ton compared to the first quarter. This increase was driven by higher cedar sawlog prices and seasonally lighter sawlogs. Expenditures on forest management and road maintenance also increased seasonally compared to the first quarter. In the South, we harvested 1.5 million tons in the second quarter, down seasonally compared to 1.6 million tons harvested in the first quarter. Our Southern sawlog prices increased by 2% compared to the first quarter.
愛達荷州鋸木價格與第一季相比每噸上漲了 9%。這一增長是由於雪松鋸木價格上漲和季節性鋸木供應減少所致。與第一季相比,森林管理和道路維護支出也出現季節性成長。在南方,我們第二季收穫了 150 萬噸,與第一季收穫的 160 萬噸相比,季節性下降。我們的南方鋸木價格與第一季相比上漲了 2%。
This rise in price was mainly driven by a higher volume of premium-grade pine sawlogs in our Gulf South region.
價格上漲主要是由於墨西哥灣南部地區優質松木鋸材產量增加所致。
Now I will turn to Wood Products, which is shown on slides 8 and 9. Adjusted EBITDDA was $2 million in the second quarter compared to $12 million in the first quarter. The decrease was driven by a combination of factors, including lower average lumber prices, increased processing costs primarily from onetime items and a write-down of lumber inventories to net realizable value. Our average lumber price realization decreased $4 or 1% from $454 per thousand board feet in the first quarter to $450 per thousand board feet in the second quarter.
現在我將討論木製品,如幻燈片 8 和 9 所示。第二季調整後的 EBITDDA 為 200 萬美元,而第一季為 1,200 萬美元。造成這一下降的因素有很多,包括平均木材價格下降、一次性物品加工成本增加以及木材庫存減記至可實現淨值。我們的平均木材價格實現下降了 4 美元或 1%,從第一季的每千板英尺 454 美元下降到第二季度的每千板英尺 450 美元。
Comparatively, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite average price was also 1% lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Lumber shipments increased by 13 million board feet, rising from 290 million board feet in the first quarter to 303 million board feet in the second quarter, setting a new quarterly record. This increase is attributable to improved seasonal operating conditions and incremental production at the recently upgraded Waldo, Arkansas sawmill.
相比之下,第二季隨機長度框架木材複合材料的平均價格也比第一季低 1%。木材出貨量增加1,300萬板英尺,由第一季的2.9億板英尺增至第二季的3.03億板英尺,創下季度新高。這一增長歸因於季節性經營條件的改善以及最近升級的阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠的產量增加。
Transitioning to Real Estate on slides 10 and 11. The segment produced adjusted EBITDDA of $23 million in the second quarter, which matches our first-quarter results. During the second quarter, the rural real estate business sold 7,500 acres at an average price of $3,100 per acre, reflecting the significant premium over timberland values. Sales included the conservation land sales in Arkansas, which generated proceeds over $4 million. Demand for rural real estate remains robust as evidenced by achieving the highest level of transaction volume this quarter since 2017.
在第 10 和 11 張幻燈片上過渡到房地產。該部門第二季的調整後 EBITDDA 為 2,300 萬美元,與第一季的業績一致。第二季度,農村房地產企業以平均每英畝 3,100 美元的價格出售了 7,500 英畝土地,這反映出林地價值的大幅溢價。銷售包括阿肯色州的保護土地銷售,收益超過 400 萬美元。本季農村房地產交易量創下2017年以來最高水平,顯示農村房地產需求仍然強勁。
In the Chenal Valley development side of our real estate business, 18 residential lots were sold at an average price of $102,000 per lot in the second quarter. Despite prevailing macroeconomic challenges, we continue to experience steady demand from regional builders in Chenal.
在我們房地產業務的 Chenal Valley 開發方面,第二季售出了 18 塊住宅地塊,平均每塊價格為 102,000 美元。儘管面臨宏觀經濟挑戰,我們仍然感受到來自 Chenal 地區建築商的穩定需求。
Turning to our capital structure, summarized on slide 12. We finished the second quarter with $395 million in liquidity, including $95 million of cash on our balance sheet as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. Reported cash balance reflects the use of $60 million through the end of the second quarter to repurchase 1.5 million shares at an average of $40 per share under our existing repurchase authorization. We have $30 million remaining on our $200 million repurchase authorization.
談到我們的資本結構,第 12 頁對此進行了總結。我們第二季結束時擁有 3.95 億美元的流動資金,其中包括資產負債表上的 9,500 萬美元現金以及未提取的循環信貸額度。報告的現金餘額反映出,截至第二季末,根據我們現有的回購授權,我們將使用 6,000 萬美元以平均每股 40 美元的價格回購 150 萬股股票。我們的 2 億美元回購授權還剩餘 3,000 萬美元。
We have $100 million of debt maturing in August, which we expect to refinance. We also anticipate utilizing our remainder -- remaining forward starting interest rate swaps, that's a $75 million notion of value to lower borrowing costs for this debt refinancing. Capital expenditures were $10 million in the second quarter. This amount includes real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement.
我們有 1 億美元的債務將於 8 月到期,我們預計將進行再融資。我們也預計將利用剩餘的遠期起始利率互換(價值 7,500 萬美元)來降低此債務再融資的借貸成本。第二季的資本支出為1000萬美元。該金額包括房地產開發支出,該支出包含在我們的現金流量表中的營運現金中。
For the full year, we continue to anticipate CapEx spend of $60 million to $65 million, which excludes the final closeout payment of $6 million for the Waldo sawmill project that we made in Q1 and any potential timberland acquisitions.
就全年而言,我們繼續預計資本支出為 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元,其中不包括我們在第一季度為 Waldo 鋸木廠項目支付的 600 萬美元最終結算款以及任何潛在的林地收購。
I will now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on slide 13. Within our Timberlands segment, we anticipate harvesting between 1.9 million and 2 million tons during the third quarter, with approximately 80% of this volume sourced from the South. Harvest volumes in Idaho are projected to be seasonally higher in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. Additionally, sawlog prices in Idaho are expected to decline approximately 9% in the third quarter, primarily due to lower prices on index volume.
我現在將提供一些高層次的展望評論。詳細資訊請參閱幻燈片 13。在我們的林木部門,我們預計第三季的採伐量將在 190 萬至 200 萬噸之間,其中約 80% 來自南方。預計愛達荷州第三季的收穫量將比第二季季節性更高。此外,愛達荷州鋸木價格預計第三季將下降約 9%,主要原因是指數量價格下降。
As a reminder, our index volume is based on a one-month lag. Consequently, Q3 index pricing is based on June through August lumber prices, with both June and July having seen relatively low lumber prices. In the Southern region, we anticipate harvesting approximately 1.5 million tons during the third quarter, and we expect that sawlog prices will remain relatively flat. We plan to ship 310 million to 320 million board feet of lumber in the third quarter, which would establish another quarterly record.
提醒一下,我們的指數量是基於一個月的滯後。因此,第三季指數定價是基於 6 月至 8 月的木材價格,其中 6 月和 7 月的木材價格相對較低。在南部地區,我們預計第三季將收穫約 150 萬噸,我們預計鋸木價格將保持相對穩定。我們計劃在第三季運送 3.1 億至 3.2 億板英尺的木材,這將創下另一個季度紀錄。
Our average lumber price thus far in the third quarter is $410 per thousand board feet, which is roughly 9% lower compared to our average lumber price in the second quarter. This is based on approximately 100 million board feet of lumber.
到目前為止,第三季我們的平均木材價格為每千板英尺 410 美元,比第二季的平均木材價格低約 9%。這是基於約 1 億板英尺的木材。
The lumber prices have been weak thus far in Q3. They have recently been improving, and we expect them to continue to rise as we move through the back half of the year, driven by higher duties and potential tariffs. Also, our Wood Products division had a couple of challenges in Q2, which we do not expect to repeat and as such, we anticipate results to improve in Q3.
第三季迄今木材價格一直疲軟。最近,這些價格一直在上漲,我們預計,在關稅和潛在關稅上調的推動下,這些價格在今年下半年將繼續上漲。此外,我們的木製品部門在第二季度遇到了一些挑戰,我們預計這些挑戰不會重演,因此,我們預計第三季的業績將會改善。
Turning to our Real Estate segment. We expect to sell approximately 15,000 acres of rural land at an average price of $3,100 per acre in Q3. Given this level of anticipated third quarter activity, we are increasing our full-year guidance to an estimated 31,000 acres, an increase in our average price per acre to $3,100. For our Chenal Valley development, we expect to close on approximately 50 residential lots at $140,000 per lot and 13 acres of commercial land at $530,000 per acre in the third quarter. Further details regarding Real Estate can be found on slide 13.
轉向我們的房地產部門。我們預計第三季將以平均每英畝 3,100 美元的價格出售約 15,000 英畝農村土地。鑑於預期的第三季活動水平,我們將全年指導產量提高至預計 31,000 英畝,每英畝平均價格上漲至 3,100 美元。對於我們的 Chenal Valley 開發項目,我們預計將在第三季以每塊 14 萬美元的價格成交約 50 塊住宅地塊,以每英畝 53 萬美元的價格成交 13 英畝商業用地。有關房地產的更多詳細資訊請參閱投影片 13。
We anticipate that our total adjusted EBITDDA for the third quarter will be significantly higher than our second-quarter results, driven by improved performance in both Real Estate and Wood Products divisions.
我們預計,受房地產和木製品部門業績改善的推動,第三季調整後 EBITDDA 總額將顯著高於第二季的業績。
That concludes our prepared remarks. John, I would now like to open the call to questions.
我們的準備好的演講到此結束。約翰,我現在想開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ketan Mamtora, BMO.
(操作員說明)Ketan Mamtora,BMO。
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Maybe to start with, Wayne, you talked about -- and correct me if I'm wrong on this, but what I heard was your lumber prices are down about 9% quarter to date, but you are forecasting kind of flat for the quarter. Can you just walk us through kind of what you're assuming there?
首先,韋恩,您談到了——如果我錯了請糾正我,但我聽說的是,你們的木材價格本季度迄今已下跌約 9%,但您預測本季度將持平。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下您的假設?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So Ketan, this is Eric. I'll take that one. Yeah, so the duties are just now coming into effect. The anti-dumping duty just got announced a few days ago, and countervailing is going to be announced here in just a few days, and there is a potential for tariffs, which I do believe one will be coming. The exact time when that happens is uncertain.
是的。那麼 Ketan,這是 Eric。我要那個。是的,這些職責現在才剛生效。反傾銷稅幾天前才宣布,反補貼稅也將在幾天後宣布,而且還有徵收關稅的可能性,我相信肯定會有關稅。發生這種情況的具體時間尚不確定。
But we think we're in a market environment where even though demand is tepid, as we said in our prepared remarks, we do think that these duties are going to force supply adjustments in the marketplace. And we've already seen it from Arbec. We've seen it from Canfor. Both those companies closed mills. We think more is coming.
但我們認為,儘管我們處於需求不溫不火的市場環境中,但正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,我們確實認為這些關稅將迫使市場進行供應調整。我們已經從 Arbec 看到了這一點。我們從 Canfor 看到了這一點。這兩家公司都關閉了工廠。我們認為還會有更多。
And so we think prices are going to gradually move their way higher as we move through the quarter. And if I had to pick a number on where we're going to be at the end of the quarter, we think July is the low point for the year. We think we'll be potentially $50 higher in September than where we are today. Things have to happen for us to get there, but that's our outlook as we sit here today.
因此我們認為,隨著本季的推進,價格將會逐步走高。如果我必須選擇一個數字來預測本季末的狀況,我們認為 7 月是今年的最低點。我們認為 9 月的股價可能會比現在高出 50 美元。為了實現這一目標,我們必須採取一些措施,但這就是我們今天坐在這裡的看法。
And that's what drives us back to flat lumber prices comparing Q2 to Q3.
這就是導致第二季和第三季木材價格持平的原因。
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Got it. No, that's helpful. And then just one more on Wood Products. So is it fair to say that as we move -- as we think about Q3, the lumber inventory charge and the onetime unfavorable cost that you had, that should largely go away in Q3? So call it rough number is about $6 million reversal.
知道了。不,這很有幫助。然後再談一下木製品。那麼,是否可以這樣說,隨著我們考慮第三季度,木材庫存費用和一次性不利成本應該在第三季度基本上消失?所以粗略的數字是大約 600 萬美元的逆轉。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean, Ketan, it was a perfect storm that hit our Wood Products business in Q2. We talked about the St. Maries project that got accelerated from Q3 into Q2, that cost us some earnings. We had the Waldo utility issue that cost us. Log costs are going to be going down in Q3 versus Q2. Freight was a big issue for us in Q2. That's not going to happen in Q3. The LCM hit that we took in Q2, we think that's going away in Q3 as prices rise. And frankly, we haven't talked about panels, but our plywood business has made a step change for the better in Q2 to Q3.
是的。我的意思是,Ketan,這是一場完美風暴,在第二季度襲擊了我們的木製品業務。我們談到了從第三季度加速到第二季度的聖瑪麗項目,這讓我們損失了一些收益。我們遇到了 Waldo 實用問題,這給我們帶來了損失。與第二季相比,第三季的原木成本將會下降。運費是我們第二季面臨的一個大問題。這在第三季不會發生。我們認為,隨著價格上漲,LCM 在第二季受到的衝擊將在第三季消失。坦白說,我們還沒有談論面板,但我們的膠合板業務在第二季到第三季已經有了顯著的改善。
Some of that's driven by potential tariffs on Brazilian plywood coming into US, but also some of that imported product our customers are realizing is of low quality and they've come back to us even though we charge more for our plywood, they're willing to pay it, given the low-quality material they've seen coming out of Chile and Brazil. So there's a bunch of things that hit us in Q2 that are going to reverse going into Q3, and I've got pretty good expectations for our earnings in Q3.
部分原因是美國對巴西膠合板徵收潛在關稅,但也有部分客戶發現進口產品品質較差,所以他們又回來找我們,儘管我們對膠合板收取更高的價格,但考慮到他們看到的智利和巴西生產的低品質材料,他們願意支付更高的價格。因此,第二季為我們帶來諸多影響的因素在第三季將會扭轉,我對第三季的獲利抱持相當好的預期。
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just final one from me. On capital allocation, Eric, you talked about share repurchases kind of really picked up here recently. Given an understanding that this is sort of a point in time reference, but this year has been just generally challenged in lumber. As you think about EBITDDA leverage, that's ticked up, how do you think about sort of balancing near-term uncertainty versus what is clearly a pretty attractive discount to NAV as you think about share repurchases?
知道了。這很有幫助。接下來是我最後一個問題。關於資本配置,埃里克,您談到了股票回購最近確實有所回升。鑑於這是一種時間點參考,但今年木材市場普遍面臨挑戰。當您考慮 EBITDDA 槓桿率時,該指標有所上升,當您考慮股票回購時,您如何平衡短期不確定性與顯然對資產淨值相當有吸引力的折扣?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I mean, one of the things we're always going to do is we're going to protect our dividend, and we're going to protect our balance sheet. Those are sacrosanct to us. But once we've taken care of those two, we feel like we've got free cash flow that we can use at our discretion to drive shareholder value. And as we think about what's going to be the best option, we're going to have to look at the landscape, And the landscape is going to be a review of what are our M&A opportunities at the time.
是的。我的意思是,我們始終要做的事情之一就是保護我們的股息,保護我們的資產負債表。這些對我們來說都是神聖不可侵犯的。但一旦我們解決了這兩個問題,我們就會覺得我們有了自由現金流,可以自行決定使用它來推動股東價值。當我們思考最佳選擇時,我們必須審視情況,而情況將是我們當時的併購機會的回顧。
And it's also going to be what is our outlook for the business at that point in time. It feels to me like Timberlands' earnings are generally pretty stable kind of all the time. It feels to me like Real Estate, the demand just continues to go higher, almost no matter the environment. So the wildcard really is Wood Products.
這也將是我們在那個時候對業務的展望。在我看來,Timberlands 的收益總體上一直都相當穩定。我覺得就像房地產一樣,無論環境如何,需求都在持續走高。因此,真正的通配符是木製品。
And as we sit here today and we look at the outlook, and not just for the back half of this year, but also getting into next year, and potentially the year after that, at some point in time, housing starts are going to get better and this lackluster R&R market, it's going to get better, too.
今天,我們坐在這裡,展望未來,不僅是今年下半年,而且是明年,甚至可能是後年,在某個時候,新屋開工情況將會好轉,而這個低迷的 R&R 市場也會好轉。
We think there are projects that are pent up that are going to get done at some point in time in the future, maybe not when mortgage rates are 6.8% or 7%. But as rates come down, and I do think rate cuts are coming, we think activity is going to pick up, and that's going to drive demand for lumber, and that's going to help move pricing higher.
我們認為,一些被擱置的項目將在未來的某個時間點完成,也許不是在抵押貸款利率為 6.8% 或 7% 的時候。但隨著利率下降,我確實認為降息即將到來,我們認為活動將會增加,這將推動對木材的需求,這將有助於推高價格。
So as we looked at it this quarter, in particular, the stars really aligned for us to be aggressive on share repurchases, especially with our stock trading at such a deep discount to net asset value. Demand for timberland, it's never been higher. And as we look at it, our stock is just on massive sale. And with a bright outlook on future earnings, it's hard for us to not be aggressive. But we're always going to protect the balance sheet, and we're always going to protect our dividend first.
因此,當我們回顧本季時,我們發現,情況確實有利於我們積極回購股票,尤其是考慮到我們的股票交易價格相對於淨資產價值有如此大的折扣。對林地的需求從未如此高漲。我們看到,我們的庫存正在大量銷售。由於未來獲利前景光明,我們很難不積極進取。但我們始終會保護資產負債表,並且我們始終會先保護我們的股利。
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Ketan Mamtora - Analyst
Thank you. (inaudible) good luck.
謝謝。 (聽不清楚)祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Pettinari, Citi.
花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。
Anthony Pettinari - Analyst
Anthony Pettinari - Analyst
Just following up on the previous question. Eric, I think you talked about expectations for a tariff maybe in addition to the import duties, if I got that right. And I think lumber has generally been exempted by USMCA and we didn't have a lumber tariff around Liberation Day. So I was wondering, are you talking about like 232? Or do you think you could see a tariff on top of the duty? Or what sort of drives that view, if I got that right?
只是繼續回答上一個問題。艾瑞克,如果我沒理解錯的話,我想你談到了除了進口關稅之外可能還會徵收的關稅。我認為木材通常受到 USMCA 的豁免,我們在解放日前後沒有徵收木材關稅。所以我想知道,您說的是 232 嗎?或者您認為除了關稅之外還可能徵收關稅嗎?或者如果我理解正確的話,是什麼驅動了這種觀點?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I guess I just look at Trump's actions to date, his administration, we've now seen tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper. Everything that seems to be under investigation winds up with a tariff on it. I don't have any inside information that a 232 tariff is coming on lumber. I know the country has got a lot of fiber out there.
是的。我想我只是看看川普迄今為止的行動,他的政府,我們現在已經看到對鋼鐵、鋁、銅徵收關稅。所有看似正在接受調查的事物最終都會被徵收關稅。我沒有任何內部消息說木材將要被徵收 232 關稅。我知道這個國家有很多纖維。
We don't have the converting, but we do have a lot of fiber. And I think if a tariff was put in place and not a short-term one, but a long-term one, one that lasted perhaps years, I think it would compel the industry to really step up and build more mills. And we could become self-sufficient in lumber.
我們沒有進行轉換,但我們確實有很多纖維。我認為,如果實施關稅,而且不是短期的,而是長期的,可能持續數年的,我認為它將迫使該行業真正加大力度,建造更多的工廠。我們能夠實現木材自給自足。
So I guess I'm just kind of reading between the lines here that judging Trump's prior actions, and it seems to me like that's where he's headed with all this. I could be wrong, it's pure speculation, but that's what my gut tells me. It would be on top of the duties.
所以我想我只是從字裡行間來判斷川普之前的行為,在我看來,這就是他採取這一切行動的目的。我可能是錯的,這純粹是猜測,但這是我的直覺告訴我的。這將是最重要的職責。
Anthony Pettinari - Analyst
Anthony Pettinari - Analyst
Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. I guess maybe sticking with kind of the policy side and One Big Beautiful Bill. I guess maybe two questions. I think there's a provision in there to increase the taxable subsidiary that a REIT can hold to 25%. Is that impactful to you?
知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。我想也許應該堅持政策方面和“一項偉大的美麗法案”。我想也許有兩個問題。我認為其中有一項規定,將 REIT 可持有的應稅子公司比例提高到 25%。這對你有影響嗎?
Then second question, is the view that of the -- I think you said over 40,000 acres under solar option, is any of that at risk given some of the changes around solar incentives? Or you feel that those are kind of vetted and rock-solid?
那麼第二個問題是——我想您說的是超過 40,000 英畝的土地採用太陽能選項,考慮到太陽能激勵措施的一些變化,這些土地是否存在風險?或者您覺得這些都是經過審查並且堅如磐石的?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Wayne will take the first, and I'll take the second.
韋恩將獲得第一名,我將獲得第二名。
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Yeah. So Anthony, on your TRS question, increasing that threshold from 20% to 25%. Certainly, the increased threshold provides for us, I would say, modest expansion opportunities for our Wood Products business. Under the previous threshold, we had ample cushion under the test, but this new threshold certainly provides us an opportunity to further grow Wood Products.
是的。安東尼,關於你的 TRS 問題,將該門檻從 20% 提高到 25%。當然,我想說,門檻的提高為我們的木製品業務提供了適度的擴張機會。在先前的門檻下,我們在考驗下有足夠的緩衝,但這個新的門檻無疑為我們提供了進一步發展木製品的機會。
Now it's either through discretionary larger-scale capital projects on our existing mill footprint that provides an attractive IRR such as what we just recently did with Waldo. Or we could look at strategic mill acquisitions that are the right fit that would align with our existing Wood Products and Timberland portfolio. But at the end of the day, we certainly view this increase in the threshold that is very positive for the company.
現在,要么透過在我們現有的工廠足跡上自由支配的更大規模的資本項目來提供有吸引力的 IRR,例如我們最近與 Waldo 所做的那樣。或者我們可以考慮與我們現有的木製品和 Timberland 產品組合相符的策略性工廠收購。但最終,我們當然認為門檻的提高對公司來說是非常有利的。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Anthony, I'll take the second question regarding solar. Yeah, I'm not sure the One Big Beautiful Bill had much, if any, impact on the outlook for solar. And let me give you the reason why. At the end of Q2, we announced that we had 38,000 acres under option for solar. And actually, where we sit here today, we have 34,000 acres. So we're down 4,000 acres.
是的,安東尼,我將回答有關太陽能的第二個問題。是的,我不確定《美麗大法案》對太陽能前景是否有很大影響。讓我來告訴你原因。在第二季末,我們宣布有 38,000 英畝土地可用於太陽能發電。事實上,我們今天所處的地方有 34,000 英畝土地。因此我們減少了 4,000 英畝。
We did have, in fact, one cancellation here recently that I don't think surprised us. It was a developer that was struggling with its utility for an offtake agreement. And when they canceled their option, we reached out to another larger solar developer and said, hey, this property has now come available. What do you think? Do you have an interest? And they jumped on it. And we think we're going to get a new option in place at more favorable terms than the option that got canceled.
事實上,我們最近確實取消了一次預訂,但我認為這並不令我們感到驚訝。這是一家正在為爭取承購協議而苦苦掙扎的開發商。當他們取消選擇時,我們聯繫了另一家更大的太陽能開發商並說,嘿,這處房產現在可以使用了。你怎麼認為?你有興趣嗎?他們就跳了起來。我們認為,我們將獲得一個比被取消的選項更優惠的新選項。
The other data point that I would highlight is the fact that -- we've got another solar farm that we're in negotiations with right now, and it is big. It's 9,000 acres, over $100 million net present value. And we're down to the final short strokes, negotiating that option agreement. And we expect to have that in place by the end of Q3. That's going to put our solar acres up to 43,000.
我要強調的另一個數據點是——我們目前正在與另一個太陽能發電場進行談判,而且它規模很大。佔地 9,000 英畝,淨現值超過 1 億美元。我們現在進入最後的衝刺階段,就選擇權協議進行協商。我們預計該舉措將在第三季末實施。這將使我們的太陽能發電面積達到 43,000 英畝。
And frankly, I got a forecast from the team that does this workforce, and they think we could be at 51,000 acres under option by the end of the year and that our potential remains 70,000 to 75,000 acres in total.
坦白說,我從負責這項工作的團隊那裡得到了一份預測,他們認為到今年年底,我們的可選耕地面積可能會達到 51,000 英畝,而我們的潛力仍然在 70,000 到 75,000 英畝之間。
So I don't think this One Big Beautiful Bill had much of an impact at all on solar. And in fact, it may even accelerate some projects to enter into service quickly to try to capture the tax benefit. So I remain very optimistic on solar.
所以我不認為這個「美麗大法案」對太陽能有太大影響。事實上,它甚至可能加速一些項目投入使用,以獲得稅收優惠。因此我對太陽能仍然非常樂觀。
Anthony Pettinari - Analyst
Anthony Pettinari - Analyst
Got it. Got it. No, that's extremely helpful. I'll turn it over.
知道了。知道了。不,這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。
Operator
Operator
George Staphos, Bank of America.
美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
I want to go back to Wood Products. Eric, can you give us a little bit more color or detail in terms of what was going on with that project? You said you accelerated the investment there, which it seemed like it gave you some negative onetime effect in the quarter. But if you could give us a little bit more detail on sort of what was going on there in the first place.
我想回到木製品業。艾瑞克,您能否向我們詳細介紹一下該專案的進度?您說您加快了那裡的投資,但這似乎給您本季帶來了一些一次性的負面影響。但如果您能向我們詳細介紹那裡最初發生的情況的話。
And then relatedly, obviously, you called out what was going on with Waldo. That's unfortunate, but it's behind you. But in terms of manufacturing costs overall being a nearly $1 million headwind sequentially in the quarter, what else was going on there and what was in that bucket? Thank you. And I had a quick follow-on after that.
然後,顯然,你說出了沃爾多發生的事情。這很不幸,但那已經過去了。但就本季整體製造成本較上季下降近 100 萬美元而言,還發生了什麼,這其中又包含哪些因素?謝謝。之後我進行了快速跟進。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll take the first one, and I'll let Wayne have the second one. So yeah, regarding the project at St. Maries, so we're replacing the sawbox out of the St. Maries sawmill, and effectively, we're getting rid of band saws and we're going to circular saws. It's just more efficient. We can eliminate a handful of positions. It's a $3 million project in total. It's taken us a couple of years to get it done. 20% IRR. We're very happy with the project.
我要第一個,然後讓韋恩拿第二個。是的,關於聖瑪麗斯的項目,我們正在更換聖瑪麗斯鋸木廠的鋸箱,實際上,我們正在擺脫帶鋸,轉而使用圓鋸。這只是更有效率而已。我們可以裁減一些職位。該項目總投資為300萬美元。我們花了幾年的時間才完成它。20% 內部報酬率。我們對這個項目非常滿意。
But for us to implement the project, we had to get a piece of machinery, which Canada produces a lot of the machinery that goes into sawmills. We had to get that equipment exported out of Canada down into the United States for installation. That project was scheduled to happen during Q3.
但為了實施這個項目,我們必須獲得一台機器,而加拿大生產了許多用於鋸木廠的機器。我們必須將該設備從加拿大出口到美國進行安裝。該項目原定於第三季實施。
Well, go back to the spring of this year when there was all kinds of tariff talk, not just from the Trump administration, but also from Canada. And there was a lot of talk about a tariff going in place on that imported machinery from Canada.
好吧,回到今年春天,當時有各種各樣的關稅談判,不僅來自川普政府,也來自加拿大。關於從加拿大進口的機械徵收關稅的討論很多。
And the potential hit was, I think, $300,000, if I'm remembering correctly, $200,000 to $300,000. And we said, well, we were going to do the project in Q3, but why don't we go ahead and accelerate it into Q2 so that we can avoid that potential tariff hit. So we accelerated it into Q2, and that meant the mill had not as much production, and it had excess maintenance costs for the installation of the project.
如果我沒記錯的話,潛在損失大概是 30 萬美元,也就是 20 萬到 30 萬美元。我們說,好吧,我們本來打算在第三季度開展這個項目,但為什麼我們不將其加速到第二季度,這樣我們就可以避免潛在的關稅衝擊。因此,我們將其加速到第二季度,這意味著工廠的產量沒有那麼多,而且專案安裝的維護成本也過高。
So that was a decent hit. It was, I don't know, a couple of million dollars perhaps net impact to our P&L. That was scheduled for Q3, and now it's behind us because we got it done in Q2, and we didn't get stuck with the tariff.
所以這是一次不錯的打擊。我不知道,這可能對我們的損益表造成了幾百萬美元的淨影響。該任務原定於第三季完成,現在已經完成,因為我們在第二季就完成了,而且沒有受到關稅的困擾。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
Understood. Yeah, and on the -- Wayne, go ahead.
明白了。是的,還有──韋恩,繼續說。
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Yeah. And then I guess on your second question on manufacturing costs, yeah, there's a little bit of additional residual headwind there in manufacturing costs. But that really is mostly kind of carryover from Q1 that -- on inventory in Q1 that's flowing into Q2.
是的。然後我想關於你關於製造成本的第二個問題,是的,製造成本中存在一些額外的殘餘阻力。但這其實主要是第一季的結轉——第一季的庫存流入第二季。
So I think outside of these onetime items, for the most part, Wood Products' manufacturing costs were pretty stable. And we expect that to continue into Q3 and see manufacturing costs on a per unit basis improve, especially as we -- production and shipment levels will go up in Q3.
因此我認為,除了這些一次性項目外,木製品的製造成本大部分都相當穩定。我們預計這種情況將持續到第三季度,並且單位製造成本將有所改善,特別是因為我們——第三季度的生產和出貨水準將會上升。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And George, just to add to that, we expect our cash processing costs per thousand in Q3 to be 13% lower than Q2. That gives you a sense of the order of magnitude of the project at St. Maries and the Waldo utility issue, what it had on our P&L.
是的。喬治,補充一點,我們預計第三季每千人的現金處理成本將比第二季低 13%。這讓您了解聖瑪麗斯計畫和沃爾多公用事業問題的數量級,以及它對我們的損益表的影響。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
So Eric, maybe a little bit of an unfair question, and we won't really hold you to it, but let's assume your pricing forecast hold. I mean, would it be fair to say that you might be able to climb all the way back to your 1Q level of EBITDDA by the third quarter in the Wood Products segment. If I add back all the onetimers, Ketan was chatting about that, plus manufacturing costs, plus some throughput. Is that too big of a stretch for you at this juncture?
所以 Eric,這可能是一個有點不公平的問題,我們不會真的要求你回答,但讓我們假設你的定價預測保持不變。我的意思是,可以公平地說,到第三季度,木製品部門的 EBITDDA 可能一路回升至第一季的水平嗎?如果我把所有一次性計時器都加回去,Ketan 正在談論這個,再加上製造成本,再加上一些吞吐量。目前這對你來說是否太過艱難了?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, not at all.
不,一點也不。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
Okay. I appreciate that. My last question -- go ahead.
好的。我很感激。我的最後一個問題——請繼續。
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
And George, yeah, I would just highlight, we also took LCM at the end of the quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, that was about $3 million. We anticipate pricing to improve. So we don't -- we wouldn't expect in that pricing trend that to repeat as well.
喬治,是的,我只想強調一下,我們還在本季末採取了 LCM。與上一季相比,這一數字約為 300 萬美元。我們預計價格將會上漲。所以我們不希望這種定價趨勢再次出現。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
Yeah, sure. I was -- in my thinking, I was already reversing that out as well, Wayne. But no, that's great. Where do you -- I mean, I know you're probably going to say they're lean, but I'll ask the question anyway. Where do you see inventories right now in the channel on lumber?
是的,當然。我──在我的思想中,我已經扭轉了這種局面,韋恩。但不,那太好了。你在哪裡——我的意思是,我知道你可能會說他們很瘦,但我還是會問這個問題。現在在木材頻道的哪裡可以看到庫存?
And then if you could give us just a quick update on where you see your operating rates for this year in lumber. And if you had a view on where the market -- recognizing the markets are localized, what you see for North American operating rates in lumber, that would be great. Thanks, and good luck in the quarter,
然後,您能否向我們簡要介紹今年木材的運作率。如果您對市場有一個看法——認識到市場是本地化的,您對北美木材的開工率有什麼看法,那就太好了。謝謝,祝本季好運,
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks, George. Yeah, I do think inventories are lean. There may be a little bit of inventory building that's been taking place here over the past couple of weeks in anticipation of these duties moving up.
是的。謝謝,喬治。是的,我確實認為庫存很少。由於預期關稅將上漲,過去幾週這裡可能已經出現了少量庫存增加的情況。
I mean, if I look at what's happened to like the Western SPF composite, it bottomed back in late May. It since moved up $34. If I looked at Western SPF 2x4s, it bottomed May 8, I think it was, and it's now up $78. Well, it's not up due to improved demand, I can tell you that because as we've been talking about, demand is tepid. So I do think there might be a little bit of inventory building going on out there, but I just don't think it's a lot.
我的意思是,如果我看看西方 SPF 綜合指數發生的情況,它會在 5 月底觸底。此後,其股價上漲了 34 美元。如果我看一下 Western SPF 2x4s,我認為它在 5 月 8 日觸底,現在上漲了 78 美元。嗯,這並不是因為需求增加而上漲,我可以告訴你,因為正如我們一直在談論的,需求不溫不火。因此我確實認為可能存在一些庫存增加的情況,但我認為數量並不多。
Now back to your second question, operating rates. We continue to run our mills all out. It's how we get per unit cost down. And it's how we -- each incremental stick of lumber has got positive cash flow, positive margins. So the harder we run, the better our results are going to be.
現在回到你的第二個問題,營業率。我們將繼續全力運作我們的工廠。這就是我們降低單位成本的方法。這就是我們如何讓每一根增量木材都獲得正現金流和正利潤。因此,我們跑得越努力,我們的成績就會越好。
If I had to guess how the industry is operating, it's probably in the upper 70s, 78%, 79%, something like that. And if you've got a mill that's in the fourth quartile, each incremental stick won't be incrementally cash flow positive to you like it is to us because we've got mills that are in the better quadrants. So they're not going to run when market conditions get tough, unlike us, which we can afford to run when market conditions get tough.
如果我必須猜測這個行業的運作情況,那大概是在 70% 以上,78%,79%,諸如此類。如果你的工廠位於第四四分位數,那麼每個增量棒都不會像我們一樣為你帶來增量現金流正值,因為我們的工廠位於更好的象限。因此,當市場條件變得艱難時,他們不會逃跑,而我們卻可以承受當市場條件變得艱難時逃跑的後果。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
Okay. Thanks very much, Eric. Have a good quarter.
好的。非常感謝,埃里克。祝您本季一切順利。
Operator
Operator
Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.
庫爾特·英格、D.A.戴維森。
Kurt Yinger - Analyst
Kurt Yinger - Analyst
I want to talk kind of two higher-level questions. The first is on kind of timberlands M&A. You touched on kind of the NCS opportunities, the relative stability of the cash flows, the overall demand. We've also seen pretty compelling pricing relative to what's probably embedded in your stock at this stage. So I'm just curious if we were to put maybe the balance sheet aside for a second, would you kind of be inclined to be an incremental buyer or seller at this stage in regards to the Timberland portfolio?
我想談兩個更高層次的問題。第一個是關於林地併購的。您談到了 NCS 機會、現金流的相對穩定性以及整體需求。我們也看到,相對於現階段您的股票中可能包含的定價而言,其定價相當具有吸引力。所以我很好奇,如果我們暫時把資產負債表放在一邊,對於 Timberland 投資組合,您是否傾向於在這個階段成為增量買家或賣家?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, it's a great question, Kurt. I mean, I'd love to be an incremental buyer. It's a great asset class. The demand for rural land has never been higher. I'd love to be a buyer on the one hand, but on the other hand, we're not going to do something that destroys shareholder value. And the prices people are paying for timberland, we don't know how they get to an acceptable return on investment. So that kind of moves us to the sidelines on buying timberland.
嗯,這是一個很好的問題,庫爾特。我的意思是,我很樂意成為一名增量買家。這是一個很棒的資產類別。對農村土地的需求從未如此高漲。一方面,我很樂意成為買家,但另一方面,我們不會做損害股東價值的事。而人們為林地支付的價格,我們不知道他們如何獲得可接受的投資回報。因此,這讓我們對購買林地持觀望態度。
Now thankfully, we do have a capital allocation option like share repurchases, which makes all the sense in the world to us right now. And in terms of being a seller, I think we are a seller. We want to bear in mind our need for a long-term harvest profile. That's our future. So we're not going to sell all of our acreage. But we did enter into -- if you recall last year, we had a large sale to FIA.
值得慶幸的是,我們確實有股票回購這樣的資本配置選擇,這對我們來說現在非常有意義。就賣家而言,我認為我們就是賣家。我們要牢記我們需要一份長期的收穫概況。這就是我們的未來。所以我們不會出售所有的土地。但我們確實達成了——如果你還記得的話,去年我們與 FIA 進行了一筆大額銷售。
I think it was in the second quarter that we generated, I don't know, $50-some million. That was perfectly good timberland. That was industrial plantation, four-year-old timberland that we sold at a significant premium. So we will, from time to time, put in place a timberland sale. And by and large, we use the proceeds from that sale to repurchase stock.
我認為是在第二季度,我們創造了大約 5000 萬美元的收入。那是一片非常好的林地。那是工業種植園,四年生的林地,我們以高價出售。因此,我們會不時地進行林地出售。總的來說,我們利用出售所得來回購股票。
We bought -- after we executed that FIA sale, we've since bought back about $95 million worth of stock. So I suspect you might continue to see that trend going forward if conditions stay where they are, which is timberland prices staying high and our stock price staying depressed.
我們購買了——在我們執行了 FIA 銷售之後,我們已經回購了價值約 9500 萬美元的股票。因此,我認為,如果情況維持現狀,即林地價格居高不下而我們的股價持續低迷,你可能會繼續看到這種趨勢。
Kurt Yinger - Analyst
Kurt Yinger - Analyst
Right. Okay. Perfect. No, I appreciate the directness of the answer there. That's great.
正確的。好的。完美的。不,我很欣賞那裡的直接回答。那太棒了。
The second one is just on lumber. Clearly, there's been a lot of capacity that's been taken out over the last few years, but still has not been kind of sufficient to really tension supply and demand. I guess when we think about the duties and the potential of tariffs, is the certainty of that, you think, enough to result in maybe some more material actions or enough capacity being taken offline? Or is there anything else that you sense people are holding on to on maybe the optimistic side to where we might not see kind of that sort of supply response in the market?
第二個只是關於木材。顯然,過去幾年已經有大量產能被淘汰,但仍不足以真正緩解供需緊張局面。我想,當我們考慮關稅和關稅的潛力時,您認為這種確定性是否足以導致採取更多實質行動或將足夠的產能下線?或者您感覺到人們仍持有樂觀的態度,以至於我們可能不會在市場上看到這種供應反應?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, it's a really, really, really good question, Kurt. I'd tell you, it's hard to speculate what -- if you're running a Canadian mill, what do you do here? Your duty is going -- just went from, what, 14% up to 34%. And my understanding is the average mill up in BC with a 14% duty was running at breakeven -- cash flow breakeven.
是的,這是一個非常非常好的問題,庫爾特。我想告訴你,很難推測──如果你經營加拿大工廠,你會在這裡做什麼?你的稅率將從 14% 上升到 34%。我的理解是,不列顛哥倫比亞省的平均工廠在徵收 14% 的關稅的情況下,能夠實現收支平衡——現金流收支平衡。
So now they're running at a minus 20% cash flow profile. Do they hang on and wait for a better day? Because I think most people are forecasting the duty to come down to 15% next year. But what if they get stuck with a tariff along the way? That mountain pine beetle, as you know, has decimated the forest in BC. And with all the fires up there, getting low-cost logs is just getting harder and harder and harder.
所以現在他們的現金流是-20%。他們是否堅持等待更好的一天的到來?因為我認為大多數人預測明年關稅將降至 15%。但如果他們在途中遭遇關稅怎麼辦?眾所周知,山松甲蟲已經毀掉了不列顛哥倫比亞省的森林。隨著火災頻繁,取得低成本木柴變得越來越困難。
So I don't know what a Canadian operator will do, but that's the answer to your question. Do they continue to hang on and try to survive and make it to a better day or do they just throw in the towel? And all of a sudden, we see another 2 billion, 3 billion, 4 billion board feet of capacity to leave the market. I don't know the answer to that question, but I do know that operating conditions are only getting more challenging for them.
所以我不知道加拿大運營商會做什麼,但這就是你問題的答案。他們是否應該繼續堅持下去,努力生存,迎接更好的一天,還是乾脆放棄?突然之間,我們看到另外 20 億、30 億、40 億板英尺的產能退出市場。我不知道這個問題的答案,但我知道他們的經營條件只會越來越有挑戰性。
Kurt Yinger - Analyst
Kurt Yinger - Analyst
Yeah, yeah. Okay. That makes sense. Appreciate all color. Thank you.
是啊是啊。好的。這很有道理。欣賞一切色彩。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Just one for me. Are you seeing many opportunities to invest in your Wood Products business today that would clear your return hurdles based on your expectations of how lumber prices evolve? And I guess maybe just more broadly, how would you have us think about how CapEx trends in that business over the next couple of years?
對我來說只有一個。根據您對木材價格走勢的預期,您是否看到今天有很多投資木製品業務的機會,可以消除您的回報障礙?我想也許更廣泛地說,您希望我們如何看待未來幾年該業務的資本支出趨勢?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Great question. We've done an extensive analysis. We do have opportunities to continue to grow and improve our Wood Products business. What we told ourselves for 2025 is that we were going to get Waldo up and running, get it to its potential, and kind of settle down, and let's see where markets are at and then revisit expansion opportunities as we get towards the end of the year. So that work is underway as we speak and we'll have more to say as we get to later in the year or early next year.
是的。好問題。我們進行了廣泛的分析。我們確實有機會繼續發展和改善我們的木製品業務。我們告訴自己,2025 年我們將讓 Waldo 開始運轉,充分發揮它的潛力,然後安頓下來,看看市場狀況如何,然後在年底重新審視擴張機會。因此,正如我們所說,這項工作正在進行中,我們將在今年晚些時候或明年年初公佈更多資訊。
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Okay. Thanks. That's fair. I'll pass it back.
好的。謝謝。這很公平。我會把它傳回去。
Operator
Operator
Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.
馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub),海港研究夥伴。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
I apologize I had some technical difficulties, so if this was already covered, just skip over. But did you talk about Section 232 investigations and if you have a perspective on what's happening or what might happen there?
很抱歉遇到了一些技術困難,所以如果已經涵蓋了這一點,請直接跳過。但是您是否談到了第 232 條調查以及您對那裡正在發生的事情或可能發生的事情有何看法?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We did talk about earlier, Mark, and I'll just say that we don't have any inside information, but my theory, my view is that one is coming a tariff given what we've seen in steel, aluminum, copper, and other industries, but it's per speculation.
馬克,我們之前確實談過,我只能說我們沒有任何內部消息,但我的理論是,我的觀點是,根據我們在鋼鐵、鋁、銅和其他行業看到的情況,關稅即將到來,但這只是猜測。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Got you. So I guess if I heard you right, you said you thought that duties next year would be going down to about 15%, which I guess surprised me given that lumber prices hadn't gone up. Did I hear you right? And why do you think that?
明白了。所以如果我沒聽錯的話,您說您認為明年的關稅將降至 15% 左右,考慮到木材價格沒有上漲,這讓我感到驚訝。我聽得對嗎?為什麼您會這麼想?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, it's a two-year lag, as I understand it, Mark. And I didn't do the analysis on that. I just read it somewhere, it was either FDA or RESI or one of the other industry pundits that covers the sector that they forecast a 15% duty next year. So I could be wrong. I don't have any detailed analysis on that.
嗯,據我了解,這是兩年的滯後,馬克。我沒有對此進行分析。我剛剛在某處看到過,FDA、RESI 或其他負責該行業的專家預測明年的關稅將達到 15%。所以我可能是錯的。我對此沒有詳細的分析。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Got you. And then kind of last kind of a bigger picture question. So since the start of 2023, and I recognize that earnings have been depressed in this period. So it was very different in 2021 or 2022, but corporate has been equivalent to almost 25% of EBITDDA on average. I mean, are there things you think you can and should be doing to be scaling up or making other adjustments to make that less of a drag on a percentage basis, again, recognizing that we've been in tough time these last few years.
明白了。最後,還有一個更大的問題。因此,自 2023 年初以來,我意識到這段期間的收益一直處於低迷狀態。因此,2021 年或 2022 年的情況非常不同,但企業平均相當於 EBITDDA 的近 25%。我的意思是,您是否認為您可以並且應該做一些事情來擴大規模或進行其他調整,以減少百分比上的拖累,再次認識到過去幾年我們一直處於艱難時期。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Mark, I mean, I think it's not really fair to compare corporate overhead in a period of time when we are at kind of trough earnings. There's a base level of corporate overhead that it takes to run this business particularly in Wood Products, which is a very people-intensive business, a lot of IT solutions, that sort of thing.
是的,馬克,我的意思是,我認為在我們處於獲利低谷的時期比較企業管理費用是不公平的。經營這項業務需要一定的企業管理費用,特別是在木製品行業,這是一個人力密集型行業,需要大量的 IT 解決方案等等。
So it looks like it's outsized when you get into a period of time like we're in right now, but if lumber margins are where they're supposed to be, which over the long-term average, it's $100 a thousand, we're making $120 million in Wood Products, and suddenly our corporate overhead doesn't look all that large in comparison. But we're always analyzing our corporate overhead departments, making sure that the money is well spent and that we're only doing what we have to do.
因此,當你進入像我們現在這樣的時期時,它看起來似乎太大了,但如果木材利潤率處於應有的水平,即長期平均水平,即每千美元 100 美元,我們在木製品上賺了 1.2 億美元,相比之下,我們的企業管理費用突然看起來並不那麼大。但我們始終在分析公司的管理部門,確保資金得到充分利用,並且我們只做我們必須做的事情。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
And maybe coming kind of from the other way, if you were adding scale either through Wood Products manufacturing, what have you, I mean, you sort of said that given the arbitrage public-private maybe buying timberlands it make a lot of sense would that be accomplished without corporate really going up and that sort of -- there's, I guess, the question of scale that I'm sort of trying to think about.
也許從另一個角度來看,如果您透過木製品製造來擴大規模,那麼您有什麼,我的意思是,您說考慮到公私套利,也許購買林地是很有意義的,如果沒有企業真正崛起,這是否能夠實現 - 我想,這就是我正在嘗試思考的規模問題。
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. No, for sure. If we added a mill, if we added timberland, we wouldn't be adding corporate overhead. Certainly, when we acquired CatchMark, we gutted our corporate -- their corporate overhead, and we did that same thing with Deltic. So yes, so we can add assets. There's a lot of leverage there to be gained by having a larger footprint. That's for sure.
是的。不,肯定不是。如果我們增加一個工廠,如果我們增加林地,我們就不會增加公司管理費用。當然,當我們收購 CatchMark 時,我們削減了公司管理費用,我們對 Deltic 也做了同樣的事情。是的,我們可以新增資產。透過擴大影響力可以獲得很多優勢。那是肯定的。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks a lot.
好的。這很有幫助。多謝。
Operator
Operator
Mike Roxland, Previous Securities.
Mike Roxland,前證券公司。
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Eric, you mentioned $50 per thousand increase you're expecting lumber prices maybe by September. What does that embed in terms of capacity closures? I know you mentioned in response to your prior question that you're not sure how much capacity -- further capacity come out -- could come out from Canada.
艾瑞克,你提到每千美元上漲 50 美元,你預計木材價格可能在 9 月上漲。這對於產能關閉意味著什麼?我知道您在回答先前的問題時提到,您不確定加拿大能夠提供多少產能—進一步的產能。
In fairness, a lot of the BC closures that have occurred over the last few years has removed the high-cost capacity. So when you think about the $50 per thousand that you're saying the prices go up, what are you thinking in terms of million board feet that could come out to drive that price increase?
公平地說,過去幾年 BC 的許多關閉都消除了高成本的產能。因此,當您考慮每千板英尺 50 美元的價格上漲時,您認為有多少百萬板英尺可以推動價格上漲?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, I don't know if that capacity exists. I think it's going to be about 1 billion board feet over time. It's not going to happen by September. It takes time for mills to wind down log decks and get rid of lumber inventories and whatnot. But I think there's an extra $1 billion -- 1 billion board feet of capacity that's going to come out of Canada, mostly in BC, but the Arbec decision, it surprised me because that's over in Quebec, as I understand.
嗯,我不知道這種能力是否存在。我認為隨著時間的推移,這個數字將達到約 10 億板英尺。到九月為止這不會發生。工廠需要時間來減少原木甲板並清除木材庫存等等。但我認為還有額外的 10 億美元——10 億板英尺的產能將來自加拿大,大部分來自不列顛哥倫比亞省,但 Arbec 的決定讓我感到驚訝,因為據我所知,那是在魁北克。
And I didn't think conditions were nearly as bad in Quebec because they are in BC, but nonetheless, it was a set of high-cost mills that got closed. But if I had to pick a number, I'd say 1 billion board feet won't happen by September, not likely.
而且我不認為魁北克的情況會那麼糟糕,因為它們位於不列顛哥倫比亞省,但儘管如此,還是有一批高成本的工廠被關閉了。但如果我必須選擇一個數字,我會說到 9 月不會達到 10 億板英尺,這不太可能。
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Michael Roxland - Analyst
So the $50 price increase you're embedding for September -- forecasting in terms of increase for September, embedded something less than 1 billion board feet?
那麼,您預測 9 月份價格將上漲 50 美元,那麼 9 月份的價格上漲幅度是否低於 10 億板英尺?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean, I think what's going to happen is anybody importing lumber now into United States from Canada is going to have to pay that duty to bring that lumber in. And then they're going to have that lumber sitting in inventory, and they're going to say, well, gee, I just got -- the duty went up 20% I need to sell my lumber for $80 higher, and they're going to find that there's no buyers for $80 higher because it will be something less. And what that less is it may be $50, it may be $40, who knows. But eventually, it's going to put pressure back on that mill up in Canada that can't make a profit, getting its product across the border.
是的。我的意思是,我認為現在任何從加拿大進口木材到美國的人都必須繳納關稅。然後他們就會把木材放在庫存裡,然後他們會說,好吧,天哪,我剛剛收到——關稅上漲了 20%,我需要以高出 80 美元的價格出售我的木材,然後他們會發現沒有人願意接受高出 80 美元的價格,因為價格會更低。少了多少錢可能是 50 美元,也可能是 40 美元,誰知道呢。但最終,這將給加拿大的工廠帶來壓力,因為這些工廠無法透過跨境運輸產品來獲利。
It's going to take time. Just like those Arbec mills, they're not -- I mean, they're probably going to run for a couple of more months here but they will start winding down. And same thing with the Canfor mills. I mean, there wasn't a switch that got flipped overnight. These things take time. And so prices will gradually move higher as you see capacity come out of the market.
這需要時間。就像那些 Arbec 工廠一樣,它們不會——我的意思是,它們可能還會在這裡運行幾個月,但它們會開始逐漸停止運作。Canfor 工廠的情況也是一樣。我的意思是,沒有一個開關可以在一夜之間打開。這些事情需要時間。因此,隨著市場產能的減少,價格將逐漸走高。
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Got it. And then just one quick follow-up on the One Big Beautiful Bill. You mentioned minimal impact, if any, on solar. Any read-through to win carbon CCS, anything like that from that bill?
知道了。然後,我們再快速跟進《美麗大法案》。您提到,對太陽能的影響微乎其微,即使有的話。有沒有讀過關於贏得碳 CCS 的內容,該法案中有什麼類似內容?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, yeah. There are a variety of puts and takes in the Big Beautiful Bill. And what I would say that for the most part, they were a net positive for our business. On the negative side of the ledger, clearly, tax credits for renewables now sunset earlier, and I think it's sunsetted for wind as well as solar. Another negative thing was that the EV tax credit was eliminated, which for us, is going to have a really small net negative impact on potentially lithium demand and pricing.
嗯,是的。大美比爾 (Big Beautiful Bill) 有各式各樣的放魚和收魚活動。我想說的是,在大多數情況下,它們對我們的業務都是有利的。從負面來看,顯然,再生能源的稅收抵免現在已經提前到期,我認為風能和太陽能的稅收抵免也將到期。另一個負面因素是電動車稅收抵免被取消,對我們來說,這對潛在的鋰需求和定價的淨負面影響非常小。
But on the positive side of the ledger, which there are many benefits, the CCS tax credit was preserved, there are new tax credits for low-income housing. The accelerated depreciation for new equipment was reinstated, and that was phasing out prior to the Big Beautiful Bill. The net asset test, we talked about it earlier for REITs, was lifted from 20% to 25%.
但從積極的一面來看,有許多好處,CCS 稅收抵免得以保留,還有針對低收入住房的新稅收抵免。新設備的加速折舊制度已恢復,並在《美麗大法案》推出前逐步取消。我們之前談到的房地產投資信託基金的淨資產測試從 20% 提高到了 25%。
And the other thing I'd say is the tax credit for battery energy storage systems, which I think is the way of the future, was preserved, which is going to help lithium demand. So lots of puts and takes here. But I think in general, it was a net positive outcome for us.
我想說的另一件事是,電池儲能係統的稅收抵免得到了保留,我認為這是未來的發展方向,這將有助於鋰的需求。這裡有很多事情要做。但我認為總體而言,這對我們來說是一個淨積極的結果。
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Got it. Thank you. Good luck in the quarter.
知道了。謝謝。祝本季好運。
Operator
Operator
Buck Horne, Raymond James.
巴克霍恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。
Buck Horne - Analyst
Buck Horne - Analyst
Just one quick clarification. I think you mentioned quarter over quarter given the -- or after the St. Maries upgrades, you were looking at cash processing costs down 13% quarter over quarter. Was that just for St. Maries? Or was that for the overall Wood Products division overall?
只需簡單澄清一下。我認為您提到了季度環比——或者在聖瑪麗升級之後,您看到現金處理成本環比下降了 13%。那隻是為了聖瑪麗亞嗎?還是這是針對整個木製品部門而言的?
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Eric Cremers - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, Buck, that's for the whole division. Processing costs per thousand, they're going to come down 13%. And that wasn't just from St. Maries. That was also from the issue that we had at Waldo with our utility there. And there are a couple of other really small things that we didn't get into earlier. But collectively, it's a 13% decrease in cash processing costs.
不,巴克,這是針對整個部門的。每千件加工成本將下降 13%。這不僅來自聖瑪麗教堂。這也是我們在 Waldo 遇到的公用事業問題。還有一些其他的小事我們之前沒有提到。但總體而言,現金處理成本下降了 13%。
Buck Horne - Analyst
Buck Horne - Analyst
Wow. Very helpful. Appreciate the clarification. And then separately, are you seeing any signs that builders are -- homebuilders that are trying to actively start switching over in terms of species to the yellow pine away from the SPF to try to mitigate future cost increases. Are those conversations happening? Or are you reaching out to say, hey, we can help you use yellow pine in your operation as opposed to higher-cost SPF?
哇。非常有幫助。感謝您的澄清。另外,您是否看到任何跡象表明,建築商——房屋建築商正在積極嘗試將木材種類從 SPF 轉換為黃松,以試圖減輕未來的成本增長。這些對話正在進行嗎?或者您想說,嘿,我們可以幫助您在營運中使用黃松,而不是成本更高的 SPF?
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Yeah, Buck, this is Wayne. I would say on substitution, there is been a -- we don't see a big shift or a lot of discussion around that. I think you see it more maybe in Southern Yellow Pine, where probably truss manufacturers with 2x4s may be looking to do substitution there. But widely speaking, we're not seeing that. But over time, that could shift if they get more comfortable with Southern Yellow Pine, switching from Western SPF. But generally speaking, not a significant movement there.
是的,巴克,這是韋恩。我想說的是,關於替代,我們沒有看到很大的轉變或圍繞這一問題的大量討論。我認為您可能在南黃鬆地區看到更多這種情況,那裡的 2x4 桁架製造商可能正在尋求替代品。但從總體上看,我們並沒有看到這種情況。但隨著時間的推移,如果他們越來越習慣南方黃松,而不再使用西部 SPF,那麼這種情況可能會改變。但總體來說,那裡沒有出現重大動靜。
Buck Horne - Analyst
Buck Horne - Analyst
Okay. Thanks, guys. Good luck. Appreciate it.
好的。謝謝大家。祝你好運。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
And it seems that we have no further questions left. I would now like to turn the call over to Wayne Wasechek for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
看來我們沒有其他問題了。現在我想將電話交給 Wayne Wasechek 做結束語。請繼續。
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Wayne Wasechek - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. Please contact me with any follow-up questions. Have a great day. Thanks.
感謝大家今天上午加入我們。如有任何後續問題,請與我聯絡。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。