Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫羅布，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 PotlatchDeltic 2024 年第四季電話會議。（操作員指令）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Wayne Wasechek, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.

現在，我想請副總裁兼財務長 Wayne Wasechek 先生致開幕詞。先生，您可以繼續。

Good morning and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer.

早安，歡迎參加 PotlatchDeltic 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。與我一起參加電話會議的還有 PotlatchDeltic 總裁兼執行長 Eric Cremers。

This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review cautionary statements in our press release, on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to the presentation slides and in our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com.

本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們新聞稿、簡報以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有關這些前瞻性陳述所涉及的風險的警示聲明。另請注意，非 GAAP 指標的對帳表可在簡報幻燈片的附錄中以及我們的網站 www.potlatchdeltic.com 上找到。

I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our fourth quarter results and our 2025 outlook.

我將把電話轉給 Eric 徵求一些評論，然後我將回顧我們的第四季業績和 2025 年展望。

Well, thank you, Wayne. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Yesterday, after the market closed, we reported total adjusted EBITDA of $232 million for 2024. These results reflect the strong performance of our real estate business and the stability provided by our timberlands operations.

好吧，謝謝你，韋恩。大家早安。感謝您的加入。昨天，市場收盤後，我們報告 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 總額為 2.32 億美元。這些結果反映了我們房地產業務的強勁表現和林地營運帶來的穩定性。

Our wood products results for the year were challenged by a relatively weak lumber pricing environment, which began to improve towards the latter part of the year. Despite market conditions, we remained focused on effectively managing our trollable operational metrics across all business segments. Additionally, we successfully achieved several strategic initiatives for the year highlighted by the modernization and expansion of our Waldo sawmill.

我們今年的木製品業績受到相對疲軟的木材定價環境的挑戰，但這種情況在下半年開始好轉。儘管市場狀況不佳，我們仍專注於有效管理所有業務部門的可控營運指標。此外，我們今年成功實現了多項戰略舉措，其中最突出的是 Waldo 鋸木廠的現代化和擴建。

Our timberlands division generated adjusted EBITDA of $139 million for 2024. We harvested a total of 7.6 million tons across our northern and southern regions, which was in line with our plan at the beginning of the year.

我們的林地部門 2024 年調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 1.39 億美元。我們南北兩個地區共收穫760萬噸，完成了年初的計畫。

Despite overall softness in lumber markets, log markets in both Idaho and the Southern regions showed resilience. In Idaho, stronger cedar prices driven by regional demand bolstered our aggregate sawlog prices. As we move into the new year, we are seeing improvement in Idaho sawlog prices due to improved lumber prices particularly under our index sawlog arrangements. Meanwhile, Southern sawlog prices remained relatively stable throughout the year despite challenges stemming from measured mill consumption and abundant log supply.

儘管木材市場整體疲軟，但愛達荷州和南部地區的原木市場表現出彈性。在愛達荷州，受區域需求推動，雪松價格上漲，從而提振了我們的總鋸木價格。隨著新的一年的到來，我們看到愛達荷州鋸木價格上漲，這得益於木材價格的上漲，特別是在我們的指數鋸木安排下。同時，儘管面臨來自工廠消費量和原木供應充足的挑戰，南方鋸木價格全年仍保持相對穩定。

In our wood products segment, adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $8 million in 2024. However, the division's financial performance shifted positively in the fourth quarter with $9 million in adjusted EBITDA on improved lumber prices.

在我們的木製品部門，2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 800 萬美元。然而，由於木材價格上漲，該部門的財務表現在第四季度出現了積極變化，調整後的 EBITDA 達到 900 萬美元。

Our 2024 financial performance faced several market dynamics, including cautious buyer sentiment, ample lumber supply, and soft demand in end markets. These factors exerted downward pressure on lumber markets.

我們的 2024 年財務表現面臨多種市場動態，包括謹慎的買家情緒、充足的木材供應以及終端市場疲軟的需求。這些因素給木材市場帶來了下行壓力。

Later in the year, lumber markets became more balanced due to capacity curtailments, which we believe have contributed to the recent upward trajectory in the prices, with the Random Lengths lumber composite spot price increasing $37 or 9% per thousand board feet in the fourth quarter alone. And in what is generally a seasonally weak period for lumber prices, the composite has held steady since the beginning of the year. With a more balanced supply/demand dynamic, our 2025 outlook on lumber markets is cautiously optimistic, especially as we approach the spring building season.

今年晚些時候，由於產能削減，木材市場變得更加平衡，我們認為這導致了近期價格的上漲，僅在第四季度，隨機長度木材綜合現貨價格就每千板英尺上漲了 37 美元或 9%。雖然通常處於木材價格的季節性疲軟期，但自今年年初以來，木材綜合價格一直保持穩定。隨著供需動態更加平衡，我們對 2025 年木材市場的展望持謹慎樂觀的態度，尤其是在春季建築季節臨近之際。

We shipped just over 1.1 billion board feet of log during the year, setting a new record for the company in annual shipment volume. This achievement came even while we incurred a brief period of downtime during the year at our Waldo sawmill to integrate new equipment for modernization and expansion project.

我們全年運送了超過 11 億板英尺的原木，創下了公司年運送量的新紀錄。儘管今年我們的 Waldo 鋸木廠曾短暫暫停工，以整合新設備進行現代化和擴建項目，但我們仍然取得了這項成就。

Regarding the Waldo, Arkansas, sawmill modernization and expansion ramp up, we are making excellent progress and are firmly on track to achieve the mill's targeted production level by mid-year. The successful completion of construction and the positive trajectory of the mill's ramp up is a testament to the team's performance. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Waldo team for their dedication and effective execution of this project.

關於阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠的現代化和擴建，我們正在取得良好進展，並有望在年中實現工廠的目標生產水準。建設的成功完成和工廠產能提升的良好軌跡證明了團隊的表現。我想藉此機會感謝 Waldo 團隊對該專案所做的奉獻和有效執行。

As a reminder, we anticipate that the project will increase the mill's annual capacity by 85 million board feet. Additionally, we expect recovery rates to improve by approximately 6% and cash processing costs to decrease by about 30%. Once we complete the ramp-up phase, we project that the mill will generate approximately $25 million in incremental EBITDA annually, assuming a mid-cycle sales environment. With the construction phase now behind us and major capital expenditures completed, our focus is on managing returns and generating strong cash flow from this strategic investment.

提醒一下，我們預計該項目將使工廠的年產能提高 8,500 萬板英尺。此外，我們預計回收率將提高約 6%，現金處理成本將降低約 30%。一旦我們完成成長階段，假設銷售環境處於中期，我們預計工廠每年將產生約 2500 萬美元的增量 EBITDA。隨著建設階段的結束和主要資本支出的完成，我們的重點是管理回報並從這項策略投資中產生強勁的現金流。

Shifting to our real estate segment. This business had a very strong year, contributing $147 million in adjusted EBITDA. In our rural real estate division, we sold over 57,000 acres at $2,300 an acre. Our real estate team is focused on pursuing opportunities that drive shareholder value beyond our regular recurring sales of real estate. This was exemplified by the sale of 34,000 acres of very young average aged four-year-old timberland for $57 million or $1,700 per acre in the second quarter of 2024. While we don't anticipate a similar sale of this nature and magnitude in 2025, demand for our typical world properties remains strong. We expect to continue capitalizing on opportunities to sell world land at significant premiums to timberland value.

轉向我們的房地產領域。該業務今年表現非常強勁，貢獻了 1.47 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。在我們的農村房地產部門，我們以每英畝 2,300 美元的價格出售了超過 57,000 英畝的土地。我們的房地產團隊致力於尋找機會，為股東創造價值，而不僅僅是定期的房地產銷售。一個例子是，2024 年第二季以 5700 萬美元或每英畝 1,700 美元的價格出售了 34,000 英畝平均樹齡為四年的非常年輕的林地。雖然我們預計 2025 年不會出現類似性質和規模的銷售，但對我們典型世界房產的需求仍然強勁。我們希望繼續利用機會以遠高於林地價值的價格出售世界土地。

On the development side of our real estate business in 2024, we successfully closed on a $6 million sale of commercial land for $500,000 per acre and sold 135 residential lots at an average price of $146,000 per lot in our Chenal Valley master-planned community in Little Rock. Despite a challenging interest rate environment, the number of residential lot sales we achieved this year aligns with our historical average. This year's sales volume highlights the desirability of living in the Chenal Valley community, along with the premium lot offerings we brought to the market.

在我們 2024 年房地產業務的開發方面，我們成功以每英畝 50 萬美元的價格完成了價值 600 萬美元的商業用地銷售，並在小石城 Chenal Valley 總體規劃社區以平均每塊 146,000 美元的價格出售了 135 塊住宅地塊。儘管利率環境充滿挑戰，但我們今年實現的住宅地塊銷售數量與歷史平均水平一致。今年的銷售量凸顯了居住在 Chenal Valley 社區的吸引力，以及我們向市場提供的優質地塊。

In 2024, we made meaningful progress on our Natural Climate Solutions initiatives and are excited about the potential value these opportunities will create in the future. Over the course of 2024, we doubled our solar options under contract and the associated net present value of these contracts. By year-end, we had solar option contracts covering over 35,000 acres with an estimated net present value exceeding $400 million. We continue to see strong demand for solar projects and do not anticipate this opportunity to subside under the new US administration. Solar energy can play a crucial role in addressing America's growing energy needs in its pursuit of energy independence.

2024 年，我們在自然氣候解決方案計畫方面取得了重大進展，並對這些機會在未來創造的潛在價值感到興奮。到 2024 年，我們將合約下的太陽能選擇權及其相關的淨現值增加了一倍。截至年底，我們的太陽能選擇合約覆蓋面積超過 35,000 英畝，預計淨現值超過 4 億美元。我們繼續看到對太陽能專案的強勁需求，並且預計在新美國政府的領導下，這一機會不會消退。在追求能源獨立的過程中，太陽能可以在滿足美國日益增長的能源需求方面發揮關鍵作用。

On lithium development, we continue to pursue opportunities to lease subservice right on our land in Southwestern Arkansas where the Smackover formation is partially located. We are currently negotiating a brine lease agreement, which we expect to execute in the coming weeks. The ultimate potential of this and other emerging opportunities in the region will depend on several factors, including the determination of royalty rates and future pricing and demand for lithium.

在鋰資源開發方面，我們繼續尋求機會租賃位於阿肯色州西南部的土地上的子服務權，Smackover 地層部分位於該地塊。我們目前正在協商鹽水租賃協議，預計將在未來幾週內執行。這個機會以及該地區其他新興機會的最終潛力將取決於多種因素，包括特許權使用費率的確定以及未來鋰的定價和需求。

Regarding forest carbon offsets, we are engaged with a couple of well-respected project developers to pursue high-quality projects under either a, quote, [build-distant] scenario for an identified buyer or a broader market opportunity. Given the complexity and care necessary in developing a high-quality, high train or carbon project, we don't expect to bring this project to market this year. In addition to these projects, we are actively exploring other long-term natural climate solutions opportunities such as carbon capture and storage. We believe these initiatives will ultimately increase demand for our rural land, likely driving timberland values higher.

關於森林碳補償，我們正與一些備受尊敬的專案開發商合作，為已確定的買家或更廣泛的市場機會在「遠距離建設」的情景下尋求高品質的專案。鑑於開發高品質、高列車或碳項目所需的複雜性和謹慎性，我們預計今年不會將該項目推向市場。除了這些項目之外，我們還在積極探索其他長期自然氣候解決方案機會，例如碳捕獲和儲存。我們相信這些措施最終將增加對農村土地的需求，並可能推高林地價值。

Moving on to our capital allocation strategy. In 2024, we deployed a balanced and disciplined approach while netting the challenging lumber markets and macroeconomic uncertainty. Our priorities were centered around returning capital to our shareholders through our quarterly cash dividend and value-enhancing share repurchases, investing in high-return capital projects, such as Waldo modernization project, and making an accretive timberland acquisition.

繼續討論我們的資本配置策略。2024 年，我們在應對木材市場的挑戰和宏觀經濟的不確定性的同時，採取了平衡而嚴謹的方法。我們的首要任務是透過季度現金股利和增值股票回購向股東返還資本、投資高回報資本項目（如 Waldo 現代化項目）以及進行增值林地收購。

For the year, we paid $142 million in cash dividends. With our stock trading at levels we believe are well below our estimated net asset value, share repurchases were an attractive option for capital allocation. In the fourth quarter, we purchased $8 million of our common stock, bringing our full year repurchases to $35 million, averaging $41 per share. This leaves us with $90 million remaining under our repurchase program. Our solid financial position, coupled with our liquidity profile allows us to continue being opportunistic with deployment as we move into 2025.

今年，我們支付了 1.42 億美元的現金股利。由於我們認為我們的股票交易水準遠低於我們估計的淨資產價值，因此股票回購對於資本配置來說是一個有吸引力的選擇。第四季度，我們回購了價值 800 萬美元的普通股，使全年回購金額達到 3,500 萬美元，平均每股 41 美元。這樣我們的回購計畫還剩下 9,000 萬美元。我們穩健的財務狀況，加上我們的流動性狀況，使我們能夠在邁入 2025 年時繼續抓住部署的機會。

Turning our attention to the US housing market. Although the Federal Reserve issued three interest rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in September, the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage actually increased over this period. As a result, the home buying market is still somewhat depressed as elevated mortgage rates continue to influence near-term demand and hold back construction activity supply, although existing home inventory has written, it is still below historical levels as existing homeowners wanting to move are continuing to choose to stay in their current homes due to the lock-in effect of their low mortgage rates.

將注意力轉向美國房地產市場。儘管聯準會9月三度降息，總計100個基點，但30年期固定抵押貸款利率在此期間實際上有所上升。因此，房屋購買市場仍然有些低迷，因為高抵押貸款利率繼續影響短期需求並抑制建築活動供應，儘管現有房屋庫存已經增加，但仍低於歷史水平，因為想要搬家的現有房主由於低抵押貸款利率的鎖定效應而繼續選擇留在現有住房。

Despite this market landscape, the single-family homebuilding segment has remained relatively resilient as single-family starts have held near 1 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis throughout 2024, bolstered by large homebuilders providing incentives such as interest rate buydowns. On the other hand, the multifamily homebuilding segment remains anemic as an oversupply of multifamily units, combined with the restrictive construction financing environment continues to limit multifamily starts.

儘管市場情況如此，但獨棟住宅建築領域仍保持著相對彈性，因為在大型住宅建築商提供利率下調等激勵措施的推動下，2024 年全年獨棟住宅開工量經季節性調整後一直保持在近 100 萬套。另一方面，由於多戶型住宅供應過剩，加上嚴格的建築融資環境，多戶型住宅的開工持續受到限制，多戶型住宅建築領域仍低迷。

While these trends highlight the current state of the housing market, the long-term housing fundamentals continue to remain strong. These fundamentals are supported by an undersupply of homes favorable demographics and growth in household formations. We believe that improved housing affordability once low mortgage rates take hold, coupled with these strong fundamentals will create significant positive momentum for lumber market demand fueling growth.

雖然這些趨勢凸顯了房地產市場的現狀，但長期房屋基本面仍保持強勁。這些基本面受到住房供應不足、人口結構有利以及家庭組成成長的支撐。我們相信，一旦低抵押貸款利率站穩腳跟，住房負擔能力就會提高，再加上這些強勁的基本面，將為木材市場需求創造顯著的積極勢頭，推動增長。

Looking at the repair and remodel segment, which is the largest demand driver for lumber, activity has remained subdued, particularly in the do-it-yourself sector. Several factors have weighed on this segment, including a cautious hire sentiment under an uncertain economic backdrop, suppressed housing turnover and higher financing costs for discretionary home and projects.

從木材需求最大的推動力——修復和改造領域來看，活動仍然低迷，特別是在 DIY 領域。有幾個因素對這一領域造成了壓力，包括在不確定的經濟背景下謹慎的租賃情緒，抑制的住房週轉率以及可自由支配的房屋和項目的融資成本上升。

Despite these challenges, the leading indicator of remodeling activity published by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, predicts modest gains in 2025 for home remodeling as a solid labor market and rising home values are anticipated to support greater activity. Looking at our own business, we are seeing strong takeaway from our big box retail customers such as Home Depot, Lowe's and Menards.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，哈佛大學聯合住房研究中心發布的房屋改造活動領先指標預測，2025 年房屋改造活動將出現小幅增長，因為穩固的勞動力市場和不斷上漲的房價預計將支持更多的活動。縱觀我們自己的業務，我們看到家得寶（Home Depot）、勞氏（Lowe's）和梅納茲（Menards）等大型零售客戶帶來了強勁成長。

Additionally, medium to long-term fundamentals for R&R remained favorable as a number of structural drivers expected to support the sector, including an aging housing stock with a median age over 40 years home equity levels at historic highs and people continuing to work from home.

此外，R&R 的中長期基本面仍然有利，因為預計許多結構性驅動因素將支撐該行業，包括老化的住房存量（平均年齡超過 40 年）、房屋淨值水平處於歷史高位以及人們繼續在家工作。

As we look ahead in '25, we are optimistic about the prospects of improving lumber markets driven by capacity reductions, supportive consumer sentiment and a solid employment backdrop. Regardless market fluctuations, we remain committed to executing our strategy and maximizing operational and financial performance across all of our business segments.

展望25年，我們對受產能減少、消費者信心上漲和就業環境穩固推動的木材市場改善前景持樂觀態度。無論市場如何波動，我們仍然致力於執行我們的策略，並最大限度地提高所有業務部門的營運和財務績效。

Additionally, we continue to focus on our core corporate responsibility initiatives around Forest, Planet, people performance. With a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, we are well positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

此外，我們將繼續關注圍繞森林、地球和人類績效的核心企業責任舉措。憑藉著強勁的資產負債表、充足的流動性和嚴謹的資本配置方法，我們有能力為股東創造長期價值。

I will now turn it over to Wayne to discuss our fourth quarter results and our 2025 outlook.

現在我將把話題交給韋恩，討論我們的第四季業績和 2025 年展望。

Thank you, Eric. Beginning on page 4 of the slides, total adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $53 million, an increase of $46 million in the third quarter. This quarter-over-quarter increase was driven by higher lumber prices and improved cost recovery in our wood products segment. I will now review each of our operating segments to provide more details on our fourth quarter results.

謝謝你，埃里克。從投影片第 4 頁開始，第四季的調整後 EBITDA 總值為 5,300 萬美元，比第三季增加了 4,600 萬美元。這一季度的成長是由於木材價格上漲和木製品部門成本回收改善所致。我現在將回顧我們的各個營運部門，以提供有關我們第四季度業績的更多詳細資訊。

Information regarding our timberland segment can be found on slides 5 through 7. This segment contributed $34 million in EBITDA to our fourth quarter results, which was moderately lower compared to the third quarter. In Idaho, our harvest volume for the fourth quarter was 345,000 tons. This volume is seasonally lower than the 427,000 tons we harvested in the third quarter. Idaho sawlog prices were 4% higher per ton in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, reflecting increased prices for index sawlogs, which reached their highest price point this year in the fourth quarter.

您可以在第 5 至第 7 張投影片上找到有關我們的林地部分的資訊。該部門為我們第四季度的業績貢獻了 3,400 萬美元的 EBITDA，與第三季相比略有下降。在愛達荷州，我們第四季的收穫量為 345,000 噸。由於季節原因，這一產量低於我們第三季收穫的 427,000 噸。第四季愛達荷州鋸木價格每噸比第三季上漲 4%，反映出指數鋸木價格上漲，該指數鋸木價格在第四季度達到了今年的最高點。

In the South, we harvested 1.5 million tons in the fourth quarter, consistent with our harvest volume in the third quarter. Our Southern sawlog prices moderated slightly lower in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter. This price decline was primarily driven by mix with a higher volume of smaller diameter sawlogs and a lower volume of hardwood sawlogs in the fourth quarter.

在南部，我們在第四季收穫了 150 萬噸，與第三季的收穫量一致。與第三季相比，第四季我們南方鋸木價格略有下降。價格下跌的主要原因是第四季度小直徑鋸木產量增加而硬木鋸木產量減少。

Moving to the wood products segment shown on slides 8 and 9. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $9 million, an increase of $18 million from the third quarter. The increase was driven by higher average lumber prices and improved cost recovery. In the third quarter, we incurred the planned downtime and the restart of the Waldo, Arkansas, sawmill for the expansion and modernization project. By the fourth quarter, the mill was operational. And as we have progressed through the ramp-up curve, per unit manufacturing costs and log recovery is significantly improved. We expect to complete the ramp base by mid-year.

前往投影片 8 和 9 上顯示的木製品部分。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 900 萬美元，較第三季增加 1,800 萬美元。成長的原因是平均木材價格上漲和成本回收改善。第三季度，我們因擴建和現代化項目而發生了阿肯色州沃爾多鋸木廠的計劃停工和重啟。到第四季度，該工廠已投入運作。隨著我們在上升曲線上的不斷進步，單位製造成本和原木回收率得到了顯著改善。我們預計今年年中完成坡道底座的建造。

Our average lumber price realizations increased $43 or 11% from $402 per thousand board feet in the third quarter, $445 per thousand board feet in the fourth quarter. In comparison, random like framing lumber composite average price was a 12% higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. It's important to note on a regional mix, the product mix differs from the composite and there's also a timing difference in our sales and the composite.

我們的平均木材實現價格從第三季的每千板英尺 402 美元上漲了 43 美元，即 11%，到第四季度為每千板英尺 445 美元。相比之下，第四季隨機框架木材的複合平均價格比第三季高出 12%。值得注意的是，區域組合、產品組合與綜合組合不同，且我們的銷售和綜合組合在時間上也存在差異。

Lumber shipments increased by 16 million board feet, rising from 267 million board feet in the third quarter to 283 million board feet in the fourth quarter. This increase in shipment volume was due to higher production from the Waldo sawmill following an outage in the third quarter.

木材出貨量增加了1,600萬板英尺，從第三季的2.67億板英尺增加到第四季的2.83億板英尺。出貨量增加的原因是 Waldo 鋸木廠在第三季停產後產量增加。

Next, let's look at the real estate segment on slides 10 and 11. The segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $19 million in the fourth quarter compared to $32 million in the third quarter. In our real estate business -- in our rural real estate business in the fourth quarter, we sold 5,900 acres at an average of $2,900 per acre. Notably, our fourth quarter results included the conservation land sale in Alabama for nearly $10 million and $2,500 an acre. We continue to capitalize on a healthy demand for rural real estate, particularly for recreational purposes and conservation outcomes.

接下來，我們來看看投影片 10 和 11 上的房地產部分。該部門第四季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1,900 萬美元，而第三季為 3,200 萬美元。在我們的房地產業務中——在第四季度的農村房地產業務中，我們以平均每英畝 2,900 美元的價格出售了 5,900 英畝土地。值得注意的是，我們第四季的業績包括阿拉巴馬州的保護土地出售，售價近 1000 萬美元，每英畝 2500 美元。我們繼續利用對鄉村房地產的健康需求，特別是用於娛樂目的和保護成果的需求。

In the development side of our real estate business, we sold 45 residential lots at an average price of $100,000 per lot in the fourth quarter. Demand for a lot offerings has remained steady across each of our price points. The fourth quarter included a higher mix of smaller lots compared to the third quarter, which featured a significant number of premium lots.

在房地產業務開發方面，我們第四季以平均每塊 10 萬美元的價格出售了 45 塊住宅地。在我們每個價格點上，對大量產品的需求一直保持穩定。與第三季相比，第四季小型地塊的比例更高，且優質地塊數量較多。

Turning to our capital structure, summarized on slide 12. At year-end, our total liquidity was $451 million, which includes $152 million of cash on our balance sheet as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. We repurchased 180,000 shares at $42 per share for a total of $8 million in the fourth quarter. We have $90 million remaining on our $200 million repurchase authorization.

談到我們的資本結構，第 12 頁對此進行了總結。截至年底，我們的總流動資金為 4.51 億美元，其中包括資產負債表上的 1.52 億美元現金以及未提取的循環信貸額度。我們第四季以每股 42 美元的價格回購了 18 萬股，總計 800 萬美元。我們的 2 億美元回購授權還剩餘 9,000 萬美元。

Additionally, we refinanced $176 million of debt that matured in the fourth quarter, by utilizing $125 million of notional forward starting interest rate swaps within our portfolio, we achieved a weighted average interest cost of 3.2%, which is net of estimated patronage. This strategy enabled us to reduce our annual interest costs by $150,000 and maintain our total weighted average cost of debt at approximately 2.3%.

此外，我們還透過利用投資組合中 1.25 億美元的名目遠期起始利率互換，對第四季度到期的 1.76 億美元債務進行了再融資，實現了 3.2% 的加權平均利息成本，該成本已扣除預計的客流量。這項策略使我們能夠減少每年 15 萬美元的利息成本，並將總加權平均債務成本維持在約 2.3%。

Under the refinance, we also spread the term loan maturities over three outer years, smoothing out our debt maturity ladder. We have $75 million of notional forward starting interest rate swaps available for future debt refinancing, which will allow us to maintain a lower cost of borrowing.

在再融資下，我們也將定期貸款到期日分散到三年，從而平滑了我們的債務到期階梯。我們有7500萬美元的名義遠期起始利率互換可用於未來的債務再融資，這將使我們能夠維持較低的借貸成本。

Capital expenditures were $20 million in the fourth quarter. This amount includes real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement.

第四季的資本支出為2000萬美元。該金額包括房地產開發支出，這些支出包含在我們的現金流量表中的營運現金中。

I will now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on slide 13. We plan to harvest approximately 7.4 million tons in our timberland segment in 2025 with about 80% of the volume coming from the South. The modest decline in our planned annual harvest volume compared to the 7.6 million tons harvested in 2024 is attributed to normal variability in our harvest plan and due to our land sales activities. Harvest volumes in the North are expected to be seasonally lower in the first quarter at levels comparable to those in the first quarter of 2024. We anticipate New Orleans sawlog prices to increase by approximately 5% in the first quarter due to higher cedar index sawlog prices.

我現在將提供一些高層次的展望評論。詳細資訊請參閱幻燈片 13。我們計劃在 2025 年採伐約 740 萬噸林木，其中約 80% 來自南方。與 2024 年收穫的 760 萬噸相比，我們計劃的年度收穫量略有下降，這是由於我們的收穫計劃的正常變化以及我們的土地銷售活動造成的。預計北方第一季的收穫量將因季節原因而下降，與 2024 年第一季的水平相當。我們預計，由於雪松指數鋸木價格上漲，新奧爾良鋸木價格將在第一季上漲約 5%。

In the South, we plan to harvest 1.4 million tons in the first quarter, and we expect our Southern sawlog pricing remain relatively stable. We plan to ship 1.2 billion board feet of lumber in 2025. This projected shipment volume includes ramping up to the expanded nameplate capacity at our sawmill by midyear. In the first quarter, we expect to ship between 270 million to 280 million board feet of lumber.

在南方，我們計劃在第一季收穫 140 萬噸，我們預計南方鋸木價格將保持相對穩定。我們計劃在 2025 年運送 12 億板英尺的木材。這項預計的出貨量包括到年中之前提升到我們鋸木廠的額定產能。第一季度，我們預計將運送 2.7 億至 2.8 億板英尺的木材。

Our average lumber price thus far in the first quarter is $448 per thousand board feet which is roughly 1% higher compared to our average lumber price in the fourth quarter. This is based on approximately 90 million board feet of lumber.

迄今為止，第一季我們的平均木材價格為每千板英尺 448 美元，比第四季的平均木材價格高出約 1%。這是基於約 9000 萬板英尺的木材。

Shifting to real estate. We expect to sell approximately 26,000 acres of rural land and 130 residential lots in Chenal Valley during 2025. For the first quarter, we plan to sell approximately 7,000 acres at an average price of $3,100 per acre and approximately 10 residential lots at an average price of $100,000 per watt. Additional details regarding real estate can be found on the slide. We estimate that net interest expense will be approximately $2 million in the first quarter of about $10 million per quarter for the remaining quarters in 2025. Interest expense is lower in the first quarter as this is when we receive our annual payments from the Farm Credit banks. These amounts also include noncash interest charges and our net of estimated interest income, which we expect to be lower in 2025.

轉向房地產。我們預計 2025 年將在 Chenal Valley 出售約 26,000 英畝鄉村土地和 130 塊住宅地塊。第一季度，我們計劃以平均每英畝 3,100 美元的價格出售約 7,000 英畝土地，並以平均每瓦 100,000 美元的價格出售約 10 塊住宅用地。關於房地產的更多詳細資訊可以在幻燈片上找到。我們預計，2025 年第一季的淨利息支出約為 200 萬美元，2025 年剩餘季度的淨利息支出約為每季 1,000 萬美元。第一季的利息支出較低，因為這是我們從農業信貸銀行收到年度付款的時候。這些金額還包括非現金利息費用和我們預計的淨利息收入，我們預計 2025 年這些金額會更低。

Regarding capital expenditures, we are planning to spend between $60 million to $65 million in 2025. This range excludes the final closeout payment of $6 million for the Waldo sawmill project and any potential timberland acquisitions. With the construction of the Waldo modernization expansion project completed, our planned level of capital expenditures for 2025 returns us to a more normalized spending level. Overall, we estimate our first quarter 2025 total adjusted EBITDA will be in line with our fourth quarter results. This forecast anticipates slightly higher average lumber and index sawlog prices and an increased level of rural land sales activity, balanced out by a seasonal decline in timberland harvest volumes.

關於資本支出，我們計劃在 2025 年支出 6,000 萬至 6,500 萬美元。這一範圍不包括 Waldo 鋸木廠項目的 600 萬美元最終結算付款以及任何潛在的林地收購。隨著 Waldo 現代化擴建項目的建設完成，我們計劃的 2025 年資本支出水準將恢復到更正常的支出水準。總體而言，我們預計 2025 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 總值將與第四季的業績保持一致。該預測預計平均木材和指數鋸木價格將略有上漲，農村土地銷售活動將增加，但林地採伐量的季節性下降將抵消此影響。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Rob, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。羅布，我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行，喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Congratulations on the year. I guess the first question I had, I know you attributed it to normal variability in the harvest profile, and that is pretty much all encompassing. But if you step back and say, where you were six months ago, would you been expecting to harvest only about 7.4 million tons for '25? On the margin, things look like they're getting better. You said you're cautiously optimistic pricing is up in lumber. Is there anything else beyond normal seasonality -- excuse me, normal variability in terms of why we weren't seeing a little bit more in terms of timber harvest?

恭喜你過新年。我想我第一個問題是，我知道您將其歸因於收穫概況的正常變化，而這幾乎涵蓋了所有方面。但如果你退一步想一想，六個月前，你是否預期 25 年的產量只會達到 740 萬噸？從邊緣來看，情況似乎正在好轉。您說您對木材價格上漲持謹慎樂觀的態度。除了正常的季節性因素（對不起，是正常的變化因素）之外，還有其他原因導致我們沒有看到木材採伐量稍微增加嗎？

A related question, just in general on harvesting. We've seen in the cellulose markets, a bit more of a premium than normal on softwood versus hardwood, again, in the pulp markets. Are you seeing any of that filter into demand for softwood pulpwood and in turn, demand in the next couple of quarters?

一個相關的問題，只是關於收穫的一般問題。我們在纖維素市場上看到，軟木的價格比硬木的價格高一點，同樣在紙漿市場上也是如此。您是否認為這些因素會影響對軟木紙漿木材的需求，進而影響未來幾季的需求？

Yes, George, this is Wayne. So taking your first question on the harvest volumes for 2025, it really comes down to a couple of things. So as we discussed in our prepared remarks, first, it's normal variability of our harvest volumes. Every year, we have fluctuations. It can fluctuate either way a couple of hundred thousand tons.

是的，喬治，這是韋恩。因此，關於 2025 年收穫量的第一個問題，實際上可以歸結為幾個問題。正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，首先，這是我們的收穫量的正常變化。每年，我們都會遇到波動。它可能會在幾十萬噸的範圍內波動。

Second thing is land sales activities. Now our land management practices always aim to maintain a sustainable harvest profile, but that's impacted by forest growth rates, how we maximize NPV generated by our timberland harvest. But now on the land sales activity, we're portfolio managers. We're always looking at options to generate attractive returns. For example, in Q4, we sold a larger track for conservation purposes. This was at a premium to timberland value at almost 3 times TMV. And we had that initially in our 2025 harvest plan, now which we had to adjust our '25 outlook because of that land sale. So it really comes into play those two pieces.

第二件事是土地銷售活動。現在，我們的土地管理實踐始終致力於維持可持續的採伐狀況，但這受到森林生長率的影響，我們如何最大限度地提高林地採伐產生的淨現值。但現在就土地銷售活動而言，我們是投資組合經理。我們始終在尋找能夠產生可觀回報的選擇。例如，在第四季度，我們出於保護目的出售了一條更大的賽道。這比林地價值高出近三倍，幾乎是 TMV 的三倍。我們最初在 2025 年收穫計畫中提出了這個目標，但現在我們不得不因為土地出售而調整 2025 年的展望。因此，這兩部分確實發揮了作用。

Understood. And just on softwood and in particular, pulpwood, if you can talk a little bit about what you're seeing there just with the sort of perspective of what's going on in the pulp markets?

明白了。就軟木，特別是紙漿用木材而言，您能否從紙漿市場的現狀角度談談您所看到的情況？

Yes. On the pulp side, certainly that hardwood volume has an impact on our pricing, our average pricing from period to period given the level of how much hardwood is in the mix. Certainly, I think right now, what we saw in the fourth quarter on the pulpwood side, it depends. Each market is unique. I think some of our markets, we saw a little bit elevated mill inventories on the hardwood side, which pricing may have come down maybe 1 or 2 percentage points.

是的。在紙漿方面，硬木的數量肯定會對我們的定價產生影響，不同時期的平均定價取決於混合紙漿中硬木的數量。當然，我認為現在我們在第四季度看到紙漿木材的情況要視情況而定。每個市場都是獨一無二的。我認為，在我們的一些市場中，硬木方面的工廠庫存略有增加，價格可能下降了 1 或 2 個百分點。

On the flip side, we also saw other markets that were more tensioned and pricing was actually up several basis points. So it really depends on the unique market where we're at overall. So -- and I think that will hold true as we continue to move forward on the hardwood side.

另一方面，我們也看到其他市場更加緊張，價格實際上上漲了幾個基點。所以這其實取決於我們整體上所處的獨特市場。所以 — — 我認為，隨著我們在硬木方面繼續前進，這一點仍將是正確的。

So what you're saying, Wayne, is you're not really seeing any sort of greater than normal versus recent period demand for softwood pulpwood given what we're seeing in terms of the cellulose markets themselves kind of steady as she goes at this juncture, that would be fair?

那麼，韋恩，您的意思是，考慮到我們所看到的纖維素市場本身在這一時刻保持穩定，與近期相比，您實際上並沒有看到對軟木紙漿木材的需求有任何高於正常水平的跡象，這樣公平嗎？

Yes. Yes, that's right.

是的。是的，沒錯。

All right. So based on all that dialogue, I would imagine you're not seeing much in the way of log cost inflation over the next couple of quarters in the wood products business, but how would you have us think about that across the geographies?

好的。因此，基於所有這些對話，我可以想像，在未來幾個季度中，您不會看到木製品業務的原木成本出現太大的上漲，但您希望我們如何看待各個地區的情況？

And then kind of my last question, it's one you get periodically, and we all appreciate how thoughtful you are about capital allocation at Potlatch. But you talk about buying stock back opportunistically. You talk about being portfolio managers. You talk about the fact that the NAV is much higher than the current value. Why do you have to be necessarily opportunistic with your buybacks? Why not just -- if with things getting better and the NAV being where it is relative to the price as you see it, why not be a little bit more aggressive there?

這是我的最後一個問題，也是您定期會遇到的問題，我們都很欣賞您對 Potlatch 的資本配置的深思熟慮。但您談到機會性地回購股票。您談到擔任投資組合經理人。您談到的事實是資產淨值 (NAV) 遠高於當前價值。為什麼你必須在回購時採取機會主義的做法？為什麼不呢——如果情況變得越來越好，並且資產淨值相對於價格處於您所看到的位置，為什麼不在那裡更積極一些呢？

Yes. So thanks, George. I'll answer those questions. So on the log cost side, as it relates to wood products, we did have a little bit of a favorable P&L effect here in the fourth quarter. I think our benefit was about $2 million. Going out into 2025, we expect log costs to be relatively flat across the whole company. There will be a little bit of benefit in Q1. We're estimating it to be about $1 million. But generally, across the whole business, we expect things to be relatively flat for the year in terms of log costs for wood products.

是的。所以謝謝你，喬治。我會回答這些問題。因此，在原木成本方面，由於它與木製品有關，我們在第四季度確實獲得了一些有利的損益效應。我認為我們的收益約為200萬美元。展望 2025 年，我們預計整個公司的原木成本將相對穩定。第一季會有一點好處。我們估計其價值約為 100 萬美元。但總體而言，就整個業務而言，我們預計今年木製品原木成本將相對穩定。

Now regarding capital allocation, I think we've said in the past that we're never going to move fast on any one capital allocation opportunity. We move slow and steady, and we do that intentionally. And the reason is, as we sit here today, we could look at it and say, yes, wow, with a $41, $42 stock price, we're trading well below NAV. And certainly, by virtually every analyst, we are trading well below NAV. But that doesn't mean it can't trade even lower.

現在關於資本配置，我想我們過去曾說過，我們永遠不會在任何一個資本配置機會上快速行動。我們行動緩慢、穩定，我們是有意這樣做的。原因是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們可以看到它並說，是的，哇，股價為 41 美元、42 美元，我們的交易價格遠低於資產淨值。確實，幾乎每位分析師都認為我們的交易價格遠低於資產淨值。但這並不意味著其交易價格不能更低。

And we're in this period of time where who knows what Trump is going to do with these tariffs and what's going to happen to the world economy and what's going to happen to interest rates and housing. And so we always want to remain open to having options down the road.

我們正處於這樣一個時期，誰知道川普會如何處理這些關稅，世界經濟會發生什麼變化，利率和房屋市場會發生什麼變化。因此，我們始終希望對未來的選擇保持開放態度。

And if we spend our cash now buying back stock, that means we can't take advantage of an even bigger opportunity down the road. So while I find today's prices is attractive, they could get even more attractive, and they could also get less attractive if markets play out the way we planned. But I think you can look at our $200 million repurchase authorization and see that we put our money where our mouth is, and we bought back $110 million of stock now. So slow and steady wins the race in our mind as it relates to capital allocation.

如果我們現在用現金回購股票，那就意味著我們無法利用未來更大的機會。因此，雖然我發現今天的價格很有吸引力，但它們可能會變得更有吸引力，如果市場按照我們計劃的方式發展，它們也可能變得不那麼有吸引力。但我想，大家可以看看我們 2 億美元的回購授權，就會發現我們說到做到，現在我們已經回購了價值 1.1 億美元的股票。因此，在資本配置方面，我們覺得穩紮穩打才是最終勝利。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO。

Perhaps to start with, pretty good progress on getting those unit costs down with the start-up of Waldo, certainly more than what we were expecting. I'm just curious, as we move into Q1 and into the first half of '25, how much more do you think are coming at you in terms of --

也許首先，隨著 Waldo 的啟動，降低單位成本取得了相當大的進展，肯定超出了我們的預期。我只是好奇，隨著我們進入第一季和 2025 年上半年，您認為在--

Yes. So quarter-over-quarter, I do think there's more room for us to push unit costs down. And certainly, you'll see that as we move into Q1. We expect costs to come down, not as much as we saw Q3 to Q4, but there's probably another couple of million dollars of cost to come down. And then when we get to Q2, we expect to have Waldo fully operational. So we won't see further benefit as we get to Q2, but there's a little bit more room here in Q1.

是的。因此，與上一季相比，我確實認為我們還有更多的空間來降低單位成本。當然，當我們進入第一季時，您就會看到這一點。我們預計成本會下降，雖然不會像第三季到第四季那樣下降那麼多，但成本可能還會下降幾百萬美元。然後，當我們進入第二季度時，我們希望 Waldo 能夠全面投入營運。因此，進入第二季後我們不會看到進一步的好處，但第一季還會有更多空間。

Understood. Okay. That's helpful. And then switching to timberland deal activity. Eric, I'm curious kind of what you are seeing out there in the market right now. And as you think about your portfolio, curious kind of what is your appetite for larger deals?

明白了。好的。這很有幫助。然後轉向林地交易活動。艾瑞克，我很好奇你現在在市場上看到了什麼。當您考慮您的投資組合時，您是否好奇您對更大交易的興趣如何？

Yes, Ketan, it's a good question. The timberland M&A market, it's pretty quiet right now. Over the past several years, generally, $3 billion to $4 billion of timberland changes hands each year. And I think last year, only something like $1 billion traded hands. I continue to think sellers are -- they're holding off on marketing their properties, maybe waiting for housing to improve, lumber prices to improve, interest rates to come down or for maybe carbon deals to become more mainstream.

是的，Ketan，這是個好問題。林業併購市場目前相當平靜。過去幾年，每年一般有30億到40億美元的林地易手。我認為去年的成交額只有 10 億美元左右。我仍然認為賣家正在推遲行銷他們的房產，或許在等待房屋市場好轉、木材價格上漲、利率下降或碳排放交易變得更加主流。

And to your second question about would we do more large deals? I think we would certainly be open to deals. The one caveat is it has to be at a price that creates shareholder value. And we're not going to chase the timberland deal if it comes in with an IRR that's less than our cost of capital. And our cost of capital today at the low end sits at around 6% real. So while our competitors may make timberland acquisitions and do it at prices that drive IRRs below cost of capital, that's not something we're going to do.

你的第二個問題是，我們會做更多大交易嗎？我認為我們當然願意接受交易。但要注意的是，其價格必須能創造股東價值。如果內部報酬率 (IRR) 低於我們的資本成本，我們就不會追求林地交易。我們目前的低端資本成本實際上約為 6%。因此，儘管我們的競爭對手可能會收購林地，並以內部收益率低於資本成本的價格進行收購，但我們不會這麼做。

And I do think there will come a point in time where things will get back into balance, either prices will come down in the M&A market or returns are going to come up to justify a higher price, one of the two. But we've been on the sidelines for the past couple of years, and I think we'll continue to be on the sidelines until something changes.

我確實認為，在某個時間點，事情會重新恢復平衡，要么併購市場的價格會下降，要么回報率會上升以證明更高的價格是合理的，兩者必居其一。但在過去幾年中我們一直處於觀望狀態，我認為我們會繼續處於觀望狀態，直到情況發生變化。

That's helpful. And then just one final question for me. We've seen a number of sort of pulp and paper mill closures here in the US South over the last few years. Curious from a timberland perspective, kind of impact for you guys? And also, as we think about sawmills and finding a home for those chips, how do you think about that as you think about next two, three, five years?

這很有幫助。最後我還有最後一個問題。過去幾年，我們看到美國南部有許多紙漿和造紙廠關閉。好奇從林地角度來看，這對你們有什麼影響？此外，當我們考慮鋸木廠和為這些木片尋找歸宿時，您對未來兩年、三年、五年有什麼看法？

Yes. I think we -- when we look at it, it's -- each market, timberland market is very unique. Each individual one is unique. So we look at it market by market. When we look at M&A deals for timberlands, we're certainly looking at what's the current market look like, how tensioned is it? Where do we think it's going to go? And that certainly plays into how we put together our long-term harvest profile, either our current one or when we're doing M&A deals. So I think we certainly factor that in on our viewpoint of what markets look like, but it's definitely market by market and very -- each one is unique.

是的。我認為，當我們審視它時，我們會發現每個市場，尤其是林地市場都是非常獨特的。每一個個體都是獨一無二的。因此，我們會根據市場情況逐一進行研究。當我們審視林地的併購交易時，我們當然會關注當前的市場狀況以及緊張程度如何？我們認為它會去哪裡？這肯定會影響我們如何制定長期收穫概況，無論是當前的概況還是正在進行的併購交易。因此，我認為我們在看待市場時肯定會考慮到這一點，但這肯定是因市場而異的，而且每個市場都是獨一無二的。

But I think overall, we have an outlook. We think generally, the markets will become more attentioned just with all the opportunities out there from biofuels to emerging technologies for uses of timberlands and timberland byproducts. So I think we're still very optimistic and positive about the outlook.

但我認為總體來說，我們有一個前景。我們總體認為，隨著從生物燃料到利用林地和林地副產品的新興技術等各種機會的出現，市場將受到更多關注。因此我認為我們對前景仍然非常樂觀和積極。

And on the residual, I would just say our -- we've got a great team that handles the residuals that come out of a sawmill. We've got supply arrangements into consuming pulp mills in the various areas that we operate in. It's challenging. I feel like every year, I see lower and lower residual cost, both markets continue to dry up.

關於殘餘物，我只想說，我們有一個優秀的團隊來處理鋸木廠產生的殘餘物。我們已經與經營所在地的各紙漿廠達成了供應協議。這很有挑戰性。我感覺每年我都會看到殘餘成本越來越低，兩個市場都不斷枯竭。

But there are -- like Wayne said, there are a number of new technologies coming, whether it's bioplastics or sustainable aviation fuel or pellets or Drax has got this carbon capture and storage project they're working on to, spend $12.5 billion in the South. I do think people see an opportunity to utilize low-cost pulpwood in a variety of applications. And it's just going to take time for all those facilities to get built.

但正如韋恩所說，有許多新技術正在湧現，無論是生物塑料還是可持續航空燃料或顆粒，或者 Drax 正在進行的碳捕獲和儲存項目，在南方投資了 125 億美元。我確實認為人們看到了在各種應用中利用低成本紙漿木材的機會。所有這些設施的建設都需要時間。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

This is Nico Piccini on from Mike Roxland. I guess starting at the new US administration has suspended fund from the inflation reduction and infrastructure investment and Jobs Act, but also suspending in offshore and onshore wind power leasings and caused some of the approvals, permits and loans. Do you have any early read on the impact of Natural Climate Solutions, mainly around CCS and wind because as I understand, I think has been left out from a lot of those positives and temporary holds?

這是 Mike Roxland 主持的 Nico Piccini。我猜想從新一屆美國政府開始就暫停了來自通膨降低和基礎設施投資以及就業法案的資金，而且還暫停了海上和陸上風電租賃以及一些批准、許可和貸款。您是否對自然氣候解決方案的影響有任何早期了解，主要是圍繞 CCS 和風能，因為據我所知，我認為很多積極因素和暫時因素都被忽略了？

Yes. So we're following this, needless to say, very, very closely. I do think that some areas of NCS are more vulnerable than other areas of NCS from government cutbacks. And my sense, our sense is that solar is going to be unscathed. I think lithium is going to be just fine.

是的。因此，不用說，我們正在非常非常密切地關注此事。我確實認為，由於政府削減開支，非典型肺炎的某些地區比其他地區更容易受到影響。我的感覺是，我們的感覺是太陽能不會受到影響。我認為鋰就很好。

I think carbon credits gets a little bit dicier. You're at the back on call of what do companies want to do to pursue their net-zero initiatives that they have, and there may be less government pressure on them to pursue net-zero. So that could change the outlook for carbon offsets.

我認為碳信用會變得有點棘手。您後面正在討論企業希望採取什麼措施來推行他們現有的淨零排放計劃，而政府對他們推行淨零排放計劃的壓力可能會較小。這可能會改變碳補償的前景。

And then I think CCS is the most vulnerable of all the different NCS opportunities. And that one to me is going to be highly dependent on government subsidies. So I do think it does vary from category to category. And thankfully, most of the near-term opportunity for us is in solar and lithium and those two are continuing to move on down the track.

然後我認為 CCS 是所有不同的 NCS 機會中最脆弱的。對我來說，這將高度依賴政府補貼。因此我確實認為它在不同類別之間有所差異。值得慶幸的是，我們近期的大部分機會都在太陽能和鋰領域，而這兩個領域正在繼續向前發展。

And maybe just -- sorry, some further clarification. What for solar specifically gives you confidence that, that won't be dragged into the --

也許只是——抱歉，需要進一步澄清。對於太陽能，什麼特別能讓你相信，它不會被拖入--

Yes. I think something like -- I've heard that like 80% of the money is getting spent in red states at the end of the day. And I read that 18 House members sent speaker Johnson a letter saying don't touch this money. So I have Trump say anything negative about solar. I'm sure he's not happy about solar panels being manufactured in China by and large. But he's really come out pretty publicly against offshore wind, as well as lithium EV mandates. But those two areas are -- get the most of the attention from him and not the other areas. Nobody really knows what happens in the end, but it's just -- it's a bit of a guess right now, reading between the lines. But he seems to be after the EV mandate, and so we'll see how that plays out.

是的。我認為——我聽說到頭來 80% 的資金都被花在紅州了。我還看到，18 名眾議員給議長約翰遜寫了一封信，要他不要動用這筆錢。所以我讓川普說了一些關於太陽能的負面話。我確信他對太陽能板基本上在中國生產感到不滿。但他確實公開反對離岸風電以及鋰電池電動車的強制要求。但這兩個領域最受他的關注，而其他領域則不然。沒有人真正知道最後會發生什麼，但現在這只是一個猜測，從字裡行間看出。但他似乎在追求電動車授權，所以我們將看看結果如何。

Yes. And I would add that on the solar side, even post election, we continue to see strong interest from solar developers. We'll continue to pursue additional option contracts with these developers. And yes, we just continue to see that strong activity after the election.

是的。我想補充一點，在太陽能方面，即使選舉結束後，我們仍然看到太陽能開發商的濃厚興趣。我們將繼續與這些開發商簽訂更多選擇合約。是的，我們在選舉後繼續看到這種強勁的活動。

Yes. And just to give you a -- I mean, we're at 35,000 acres. As we said in our prepared remarks now, our plan has us by the end of the year to be at something like 45,000, 46,000 acres under solar options. So like Wayne said, we see no slowdown in that part of our business.

是的。只給你一個數字——我的意思是，我們的土地面積有 35,000 英畝。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們的計劃是到今年年底將有 45,000 到 46,000 英畝的土地採用太陽能。所以就像韋恩所說的，我們認為這部分業務並未出現放緩。

Understood. So it sounds like solar is may be safer and then forest carbon and CCS on the other end of spectrum.

明白了。因此聽起來太陽能可能更安全，而森林碳和 CCS 則更安全。

Yes, correct.

是的，正確。

Gregory Andreopoulos, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Gregory Andreopoulos。

Just a quote on Southern log prices for 2025. We've seen some wood products capacity come out of more coastal southern markets this year. Would you say you're more positive on those coastal markets or more of the inland markets in 2025 in terms of year-over-year lot price growth? And then based on your view there, does that inform your decision on 2025 plans for inland legacy PCH lands versus the coastal lands you acquired in the CatchMark deal?

這只是 2025 年南方原木價格的報價。今年，我們看到一些木製品產能來自更多沿海南部市場。從地塊價格年增率來看，您是否對 2025 年沿海市場或內陸市場更樂觀？那麼基於您的看法，這是否有助於您決定 2025 年內陸遺留 PCH 土地計劃與您在 CatchMark 交易中獲得的沿海土地計劃？

Yes. On the -- looking at pricing for '25, we would -- our view would be that the coastal area, timberlands have more of an opportunity to increase in pricing. Those are the more tension markets for us. So when -- with a little more pricing demand pick up, we would see pricing move there first on our inland side and Gulf South. We haven't seen prices even with a softer demand dynamic, those prices have remained a little more stable. So we wouldn't see those have as much price appreciation as the coastal areas.

是的。從 25 年的價格來看，我們的觀點是，沿海地區和林地更有機會提高價格。對我們來說，這些都是更緊張的市場。因此，當定價需求稍微回升時，我們會看到定價首先在內陸地區和墨西哥灣南部移動。即使需求動態減弱，我們也沒有看到價格上漲，這些價格仍然保持較為穩定。因此，我們不會看到這些地區的房價像沿海地區那樣大幅上漲。

From a harvesting profile perspective, look, we have solid demand across our portfolio in the South. And yes, that hasn't the pricing or where we see it going as an influence where a harvest plan is, we maintain a long-term sustainable harvest yield and plan, and we're focused on that.

從收穫概況的角度來看，我們在南方的投資組合有著強勁的需求。是的，這與定價無關，也不會影響我們的收穫計劃，我們保持長期可持續的收穫產量和計劃，並專注於此。

Understood. And then just one quick follow-up on solar. So you mentioned doubling your option contracts from $200 million to $400 million NPV or above $400 million NPV. Is there any way to quantify your ambitions for 2025 in terms of options? And then kind of relatedly, when should we start expecting these option contracts to convert into full lease agreements? Is that 2025, '26 or further down the line?

明白了。然後我們再快速跟進一下太陽能的問題。所以您提到將選擇權合約的 NPV 從 2 億美元增加一倍至 4 億美元或超過 4 億美元。有沒有辦法用選擇的方式量化您對 2025 年的抱負？那麼相關的是，我們應該什麼時候開始期待這些期權合約轉換成完整的租賃協議呢？那是 2025 年、2026 年還是更遠以後？

Yes. So our plan this year anticipates us getting another 10,000 to 12,000 acres under option for the year, which would have an NPV of approximately $151 million. So by year-end, we expect to be somewhere 45,000, 47,000 acres or roughly $575 million of net present value. That's not the end of the opportunity for us in solar. There will be more beyond what we get done this year, we'll talk about that at a later date.

是的。因此，我們今年的計劃預計我們將在當年獲得另外 10,000 至 12,000 英畝的選擇權，其淨現值約為 1.51 億美元。因此，到年底，我們預計土地面積將達到 45,000 到 47,000 英畝，淨現值約為 5.75 億美元。這並不意味著我們在太陽能領域的機會就此終結。除了今年要完成的工作以外，我們還會做更多的事情，我們以後再談。

But in terms of when we see these options actually get exercised, we don't anticipate one getting exercised this year. I do think two to three could get exercised next year. That's about the earliest we can see one happening. And then in 2026, we might -- or 2027, we might see quite a few get exercised, but will really start happening next year, not this year.

但就我們看到這些選擇權何時真正被行使而言，我們預期今年不會有選擇權被行使。我確實認為明年可能會有兩到三個人被任命。這是我們所能觀察到的最早的一次事件。然後在 2026 年，我們可能會——或者 2027 年，我們可能會看到相當多的人得到鍛煉，但真正開始發生是在明年，而不是今年。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

So a couple of follow-ups. One, is there any meaningful contribution you expect in 2025 from any of the natural climate solution profit pools? Or is that now likely '26, '27?

以下是一些後續問題。第一，您預計 2025 年任何自然氣候解決方案利潤池是否會做出有意義的貢獻？或者現在可能是 26、27 年？

No. Mark, we're getting option payments as we sit here today. It's probably, I don't know, $4 million, more or less those option payments. So we're getting money today as we sit here for doing absolutely nothing and we manage that timberland at our own free well. So that's where we sit here today. We'll get a little bit more when we get this first lithium brine lease executed. But this is not big money. The big money will come at a later date, but we're getting a little bit as we sit here today.

不。馬克，我們今天坐在這裡，正在獲得期權付款。可能是，我不知道，400 萬美元，多一點或少一點是那些選擇權付款。所以，我們今天坐在這裡什麼都不做，用自己的免費水井管理林地，就能賺錢。這就是我們今天所處的位置。當我們簽署第一份鋰鹽水租賃協議時，我們將獲得更多的收益。但這並不是什麼大錢。大筆的錢以後會到來，但是我們今天坐在這裡已經賺到一點點了。

Got you. Second, in terms of mix, just remind us -- what was the sawlog mix in the US South in 2024? Is that similar to what you're expecting in 2025? Or is there a change? And if there's a change, why the change?

明白了。其次，就組合而言，請提醒我們－2024 年美國南部的鋸木組合是怎麼樣的？這與您對 2025 年的預期相似嗎？或者說有改變嗎？如果有變化，為什麼會變化？

No. There's -- we don't expect a mix, I think, in the sawlog volume, we were roughly around 55%. We continue to -- our outlook is near that 55% or less. That's in the US South. And our mix -- our sawlog mix in Idaho is very heavily weighted towards solid, and we don't see that changing that thoratically.

不。我認為，我們預計鋸木產量不會出現混合，大約 55% 左右。我們繼續——我們的預期是接近 55% 或更低。那是在美國南部。而且我們的混合物——愛達荷州的鋸木混合物主要以固體為主，我們認為這不會改變。

Okay. Good. And just one quick clarification. So stumpage in the US South, is that considered outlet? Or is that a mix?

好的。好的。我只想快速澄清一點。那麼，美國南部的伐木活動算是出路嗎？或者這是一種混合？

That's a mix. So it's both -- it's both sawlogs and pulpwood. When I give our outlook guidance there, we're -- 55% of sawlog. Well, that includes stumpage as well.

這是一個混合體。所以它既是鋸材也是紙漿用木材。當我給出我們的前景指導時，我們的鋸木產量佔 55%。嗯，這也包括伐木費。

Okay. Got you. All right. And then lastly, you kind of raised a little bit about tariffs. And obviously, we also have the potential for likelihood of higher duties from Canada later this year as well. Can you maybe just provide a little bit more color on your thoughts on potential impacts from those variables, recognizing there's uncertainty?

好的。明白了。好的。最後，您提到了一些有關關稅的問題。顯然，今年稍後加拿大也有可能提高關稅。考慮到存在不確定性，您能否更詳細地闡述這些變數可能產生的影響？

Yes. So there's a lot of moving pieces right now, as you can imagine, in terms of the lumber price outlook, Mark, and stems from this possibility of tariffs. What we do know is that duties are going to go up. It was going to be August, and I think the government has pushed it back to November. But the lumber duties from Canada to the US are going to go up from 14% to somewhere between 25% and 30%, and I heard one firm estimated it could go 40%. So duties are going to go up no matter what.

是的。因此，馬克，你可以想像，就木材價格前景而言，現在有很多不確定因素，而這些因素源自於關稅的可能性。我們確實知道的是關稅將會上漲。本來應該是八月份，但我認為政府已經將其推遲到十一月了。但加拿大對美國的木材關稅將從 14% 上漲至 25% 至 30% 之間，我聽說有一家公司估計關稅可能會上漲至 40%。所以，無論怎樣，關稅都會上漲。

There is a potential for tariff to go up any day depending upon what Trump decides to do. And I think what that's going to do is that it's going to raise the floor on pricing for the Canadians. And I heard a large Canadian producer one week or two ago, make a comment that if there's a duty put in place, they plan on raising their prices to their US customers to capture 100% of that duty. Now will they be able to get all that 100% of whatever the duty is or not? Who knows what will ultimately wind up happening, but their plan is to pass that along to consumers.

關稅有可能隨時上調，具體取決於川普的決定。我認為此舉將會提高加拿大人的定價底線。一兩週前，我聽到一家大型加拿大生產商發表評論稱，如果徵收關稅，他們計劃提高對美國客戶的價格，以彌補 100％ 的關稅。現在他們是否能夠獲得全部 100% 的關稅？誰知道最終會發生什麼，但他們的計劃是將其轉嫁給消費者。

And I'm frankly a little bit surprised that lumber markets haven't moved on some of this talk because that -- we're not very far away from that. I think Tom's talked about a February 1 tariff date. Now he's known talk a lot and then to do other things. But we really haven't seen much lumber price movement as it relates to the potential for tariffs. But I think as we move through the year, the trend is going to be for prices to move higher even without that tariff given that the duty is going to be increasingly significantly come November.

坦白說，我對木材市場沒有對這一主題做出反應感到有點驚訝，因為我們距離這一目標並不遙遠。我認為湯姆談論的是 2 月 1 日的關稅日期。現在他知道說很多話然後做其他事情。但我們確實沒有看到與關稅潛力相關的木材價格有太大變動。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，即使沒有關稅，價格也會呈現上漲趨勢，因為到 11 月關稅將越來越大。

And as you know, BC produces, I don't know, 6 billion board feet of lumber today. And Canada exports, I don't know, 25% of the US market needs Canadian lumber. Roughly 25% of US consumption comes from Canada. And I think after these duties get passed along, the BC mills, the median BC mill is going to need north of $5 lumber just to breakeven. And SPF today, Western is probably, I don't know, 450 or less. So when I think about the lumber price outlook, to me, the risk is clearly to the upside from here, not to the downside. And this Canadian producer that I referenced at the start of my comments, they talked about lumber prices fluctuating between $425 and $500 for the year, and that actually feels like a reasonable forecast to me.

如您所知，不列顛哥倫比亞省目前生產約 60 億板英尺的木材。而加拿大的出口，我不知道，25%的美國市場需要加拿大的木材。美國大約25%的消費來自加拿大。我認為在這些關稅實施之後，BC 工廠，中等規模的 BC 工廠將需要 5 美元以上的木材才能實現收支平衡。而現今西方的 SPF 值大概是，我不知道，450 或更低。因此，當我考慮木材價格前景時，對我來說，風險顯然是從現在開始上行，而不是下行。我在評論開始時提到的加拿大生產商表示，木材價格每年在 425 美元至 500 美元之間波動，對我來說，這實際上是一個合理的預測。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

You touched on it briefly in your prepared remarks, I was wondering if you could just provide a little bit more detail on your forest carbon initiatives, including how project redesign under the Core Carbon principles have gone? And what you're thinking in terms of time line to achieve the sale of credits given that you're not expecting any sales this year?

您在準備好的演講中簡要提到了這一點，我想知道您是否可以提供一些關於森林碳計劃的更多細節，包括核心碳原則下的項目重新設計進展如何？鑑於您預計今年不會有任何銷售，那麼您考慮實現信用銷售的時間表是怎樣的？

Yes. Like we said in the prepared remarks, we're certainly pursuing a carbon credit project. We're actively working with carbon credit buyers and top quality developers to design a project. Now this project -- buyers cloud be a targeted specific buyers. So a project that is built to suit just for them. So we're exploring that. But we're also looking to a project for the broader market. So we'll see where the best opportunity lies. We're still in the due diligence phase of identifying how to take this project. But nonetheless, we'll develop a high-quality project, and we feel that would command certainly higher pricing.

是的。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們確實在推行碳信用項目。我們正在積極與碳信用買家和優質開發商合作設計專案。現在這個項目——買家雲是針對特定的買家的。因此，專門為他們建立了一個專案。因此我們正在探索這一點。但我們也在尋找一個適合更廣大市場的項目。因此我們將看看最好的機會在哪裡。我們仍處於盡職調查階段，確定如何進行這個計畫。但儘管如此，我們仍將開發一個高品質的項目，而且我們認為這肯定會獲得更高的價格。

But from a timing perspective, keep in mind, these projects, they're very complex. They take time to develop anywhere almost probably 18 months to two years. And with that timeline, that puts us probably closer to the end of '26 to bring a project to market. So we're really -- there's much work to do there, but we're actively pursuing it.

但從時間角度來看，請記住，這些項目非常複雜。它們在任何地方的開發都需要花費時間，大概需要 18 個月到兩年的時間。按照這個時間表，我們很可能會在 26 年底前將專案推向市場。所以我們確實還有很多工作要做，但我們正在積極地進行。

Okay. And just one last for me. Can you give us a sense of when you expect better clarity on what the lithium royalty rates in Arkansas will be? And what that -- the size of that opportunity looks for you?

好的。對我來說，只剩下最後一個了。您能否告訴我們，您預計何時阿肯色州的鋰資源使用費稅率會更明確？那麼，對您來說，這個機會有多大？

Yes. So that's a tough one for us given that we're highly dependent upon -- well, two things. One is lithium pricing. And if you go look at what lithium prices, how volatile have been, you'll get a sense for it's really hard to forecast where lithium is going. But then the other big unknown is what does the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission, what royalty rate do we set for mineral rights owners in Arkansas. The range is somewhere between 2% and 12%. And so the order of magnitude of profits that we get from our lithium deposit could vary dramatically.

是的。所以這對我們來說是一個困難的問題，因為我們高度依賴兩件事。一是鋰定價。如果你觀察一下鋰的價格，看看它的波動性有多大，你會發現，預測鋰的方向真的很難。但另一個未知數是阿肯色州石油和天然氣委員會將為阿肯色州礦產權所有者設定什麼樣的使用費率。範圍在 2% 至 12% 之間。因此，我們從鋰礦床中獲得的利潤數量級可能會大不相同。

So it just -- we're at the mercy of the AOGC, and we expect -- they were supposed to I believe, in the fourth quarter of last year, and then there was talk of the first quarter, and that seems to have slipped. And so who knows. We're at the mercy of AOGC, but I think it will get resolved by the end of the year.

所以，我們只能聽天由命，我們預計，我相信他們應該在去年第四季實現這一目標，但後來又談到第一季度，而這一目標似乎已經落空。所以誰知道呢。我們完全依賴 AOGC，但我認為到今年年底這個問題將得到解決。

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

庫爾特·英格（Kurt Yinger），地方檢察官戴維森。

I wanted to start off with the home center business. It sounded like that was point of strength in the order book. Are you seeing orders kind of up nicely year-over-year or just maybe tracking with what you would expect seasonally? And I guess as you talk to those customers, do you get the sense that that's advantageous buying just at what are still kind of relatively prices or actual kind of sell-through activity that they're seeing improving as well?

我想從家居中心業務開始。聽起來這就是訂單簿的強項。您是否看到訂單量同比大幅增長，或者只是與季節性預期持平？我想，當您與這些客戶交談時，您是否覺得，在目前的相對價格或實際銷售活動也在改善的情況下進行購買是有利的？

No. I think the home center business, it looks like it's starting to turn. It's always been very strong, very steady, very stable for us. And they'll take every one of our premium studs that we produce. What -- the thing that gives me the most confidence is saying the home center business is turning. And I think, in fact, the entire R&R market is starting to turn is if you look at the home center comp store sales forecast for 2025, now this is the analysts that cover Home Depot and Lowe's because they're publicly traded. And of course, those analysts spend their life studying what happens to Home Depot and Lowe's. The consensus is for both of those two companies to have positive comp store sales in 2025 in the order of 1% to 2%. That 1% to 2% may not sound like a lot, but over the past two years, comp store sales for those two companies have been running negative. And I think at the worst point, they were negative 5% more or less. So for them to be turning positive, gives me confidence that 2025 looks to be like a pretty good year, and it's consistent with what they're telling us that they're seeing in their business that they expect to have a strong year. So lots of things can happen. It's early in the year, but we think the outlook looks pretty good for R&R.

不。我認為家居中心業務看起來正在開始好轉。對我們來說，它一直非常強大、穩定、穩定。他們會買下我們生產的每一顆優質螺柱。最讓我有信心的是家居中心業務正在轉變。我認為，事實上，整個 R&R 市場正在開始轉變，如果你看看 2025 年家居中心可比商店的銷售預測，現在這是涵蓋家得寶和勞氏的分析師，因為它們是上市公司。當然，這些分析師一生都在研究家得寶和勞氏的情況。市場普遍預計，到 2025 年，這兩家公司的同店銷售額都將成長 1% 到 2%。1% 到 2% 聽起來可能不是很多，但在過去兩年中，這兩家公司的同店銷售額一直是負值。我認為最糟糕的時候，他們的利潤率大概是負 5% 左右。因此，他們的態度轉為積極，讓我相信 2025 年將會是相當不錯的一年，而且這與他們告訴我們的他們在業務中看到的情況一致，他們預計今年將會表現強勁。所以很多事情都有可能發生。雖然現在還只是年初，但我們認為 R&R 的前景相當光明。

Got it. Okay. And then second, I just wanted to follow up on the Southern harvest expectations for this year? And I appreciate the comments on variability in land sales. I guess as we look at the 5.9 million tons, how should we think about kind of level set range sustainably going forward from here? And does that 5.9 million kind of fall at the low end, the middle, -- how should we think about that?

知道了。好的。第二，我只是想了解今年南方的收成預期？我很欣賞關於土地銷售變化的評論。我想，當我們看到 590 萬噸時，我們應該如何思考今後可持續的水平設定範圍？那麼 590 萬是否處於低端，中間——我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. Yes, I won't give specific guidance on future periods or years. But what I would say is we look at, we do maintain and analyze long-term harvest profile. And we look, say, over the next, for example, 25 years of our current land base, some years, it's higher, some years is slightly lower. But over that period of time, our total harvest volume range, I would say, between 7.1 million and 8.2 million tons. So as you can see, over time, we'll have some variability.

是的。是的，我不會對未來時期或年份給予具體指引。但我想說的是，我們確實會觀察、維護和分析長期的收穫狀況。舉例來說，我們觀察未來 25 年內目前的土地基數，有些年份會高一些，有些年份會低一些。但在這段時間內，我們的總收穫量在 710 萬噸到 820 萬噸之間。所以正如你所看到的，隨著時間的推移，我們會出現一些變化。

At this time, I'm showing there are no more questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Wayne Wasechek.

此刻，我顯示沒有其他問題了。現在我會把電話轉回給 Wayne Wasechek。

Thank you. Appreciate your interest in PotlatchDeltic, and have a great day.

謝謝。感謝您對 PotlatchDeltic 的關注，祝您有愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。