Oxford Industries Inc (OXM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Oxford Industries Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jevon Strasser. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到牛津工業公司 2022 財年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人 Jevon Strasser。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

謝謝，下午好。在我們開始之前，我想提醒與會者，在今天的電話會議和問答環節中所做的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述並非保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K.

我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論了可能導致實際經營結果或我們的財務狀況不同的重要因素，包括我們的 10-K 表格中包含的風險因素。

We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at oxfordinc.com.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。在這次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。您可以在我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中找到非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，該新聞稿發佈在我們網站 oxfordinc.com 的“投資者關係”選項卡下。

And now I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO; and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO. Thank you for your attention. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

現在我想介紹一下今天的電話會議參與者。今天和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官 Tom Chubb；首席財務官兼首席運營官 Scott Grassmyer。感謝您的關注。現在我想把電話轉給 Tom Chubb。

Thank you, Jevon. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us to hear about Oxford's record performance in both the fourth quarter and the full fiscal 2022 year. We appreciate your time and interest in our company. As always, our enterprise purpose is to evoke happiness, our enterprise strategy is to own a portfolio of lifestyle brands that create sustained profitable growth, and our enterprise objective is to maximize long-term shareholder value.

謝謝你，傑文。下午好，感謝您加入我們，了解牛津在第四季度和整個 2022 財年的創紀錄表現。我們感謝您的時間和對我們公司的興趣。一如既往，我們的企業宗旨是喚起幸福，我們的企業戰略是擁有一系列創造持續盈利增長的生活方式品牌，我們的企業目標是最大化長期股東價值。

Each of these important elements were critical to our tremendous success in fiscal 2022. We stayed anchored to these fundamental presets during the year, and we are extremely proud of the incredible results achieved for our shareholders by our amazing team of people.

這些重要因素中的每一個都對我們在 2022 財年取得巨大成功至關重要。我們在這一年中堅持這些基本預設，我們為我們出色的團隊為股東取得的令人難以置信的成果感到非常自豪。

During fiscal 2022, we delivered growth in all brands and all channels of distribution. Total sales grew 24% year-over-year, driven overwhelmingly by organic growth led by our largest brand, Tommy Bahama, which was up 22% for the year, followed by Lilly Pulitzer and our Emerging Brands Group, which increased 13% and 29%, respectively.

在 2022 財年，我們所有品牌和所有分銷渠道都實現了增長。總銷售額同比增長 24%，主要受我們最大品牌 Tommy Bahama 引領的有機增長推動，該品牌全年增長 22%，其次是 Lilly Pulitzer 和我們的新興品牌集團，分別增長 13% 和 29% ％， 分別。

The balance of the growth came from the addition of Johnny Was, which we are proud to have added to our portfolio during the third quarter of 2022. We generated this top line growth while simultaneously expanding both gross margin and operating margin. This combination produced record adjusted EPS of $10.88 for fiscal 2022 compared to our previous record of $7.99 in fiscal 2021, a 36% increase on a year-over-year basis.

增長的平衡來自 Johnny Was 的加入，我們很自豪能夠在 2022 年第三季度將其添加到我們的投資組合中。我們實現了這一收入增長，同時擴大了毛利率和營業利潤率。這一組合使 2022 財年的調整後每股收益達到創紀錄的 10.88 美元，而我們此前在 2021 財年創下了 7.99 美元的紀錄，同比增長 36%。

The results we achieved in 2022 are directly attributable to our focus on evoking happiness in our customers through our portfolio of lifestyle brands. When we succeed in our purpose, it creates the sustained profitable growth that ultimately drives long-term shareholder value. So as always, our financial results are linked to our efforts to evoke happiness in our customers. We did an outstanding job on that front during fiscal 2022 as reflected by our customer KPIs.

我們在 2022 年取得的成績直接歸功於我們專注於通過我們的生活方式品牌組合喚起客戶的幸福感。當我們成功實現我們的目標時，它會創造持續的盈利增長，最終推動長期股東價值。因此，一如既往，我們的財務業績與我們為喚起客戶的幸福所做的努力息息相關。正如我們的客戶 KPI 所反映的，我們在 2022 財年在這方面做得非常出色。

Not included -- not including the newly added Johnny Was brand, we finished the year with 2.3 million active customers compared to 2.1 million active customers at the end of 2021. We were able to grow our active customer numbers by focusing on and reinforcing the power of our lifestyle brands. A lifestyle brand is different from an ordinary brand. In an ordinary brand, you are creating a product. In a lifestyle brand, you are creating a world or even a universe. And when that world resonates with people, they want to fully engage with it and ultimately live in it.

不包括——不包括新添加的 Johnny Was 品牌，我們在這一年結束時擁有 230 萬活躍客戶，而 2021 年底為 210 萬活躍客戶。我們能夠通過關注和加強權力來增加活躍客戶數量我們的生活方式品牌。生活方式品牌不同於普通品牌。在一個普通的品牌中，你正在創造一個產品。在生活方式品牌中，您正在創造一個世界甚至一個宇宙。當那個世界與人們產生共鳴時，他們想要充分參與其中並最終生活在其中。

When that happens, people can be very loyal to you for a very long time. Across our portfolio, we did an excellent job of being crystal clear about what each of our brand stands for and then delivering that brand message to the target audiences through inspiring marketing campaigns, differentiated and innovative product and uplifting hospitality and shopping experience.

當這種情況發生時，人們會在很長一段時間內對你非常忠誠。在我們的產品組合中，我們做得非常出色，非常清楚我們每個品牌代表什麼，然後通過鼓舞人心的營銷活動、差異化和創新的產品以及令人振奮的款待和購物體驗將品牌信息傳遞給目標受眾。

During 2022, we did a good job managing both the composition of our portfolio and driving performance across the businesses within our portfolio. From a composition perspective, 2022 was the first year that our portfolio consisted exclusively of lifestyle brands having divested Lanier Apparel during 2021. As previously noted, we were also pleased to have added Johnny Was, a California-based affordable luxury modern bohemian lifestyle apparel brand.

在 2022 年期間，我們在管理投資組合的構成和推動投資組合中各業務的績效方面做得很好。從構成的角度來看，2022 年是我們的投資組合首次完全由生活方式品牌組成，並在 2021 年剝離了 Lanier Apparel。如前所述，我們還很高興地添加了 Johnny Was，這是一個位於加利福尼亞的平價奢華現代波西米亞生活方式服裝品牌.

From a portfolio performance perspective, as always, our priority in 2022 was on championing excellence in each key functional area necessary for a lifestyle brand to succeed. A terrific example of this was our creation of a marketing center of excellence to service as the in-house agency for our Emerging Brands and to leverage resources and knowledge across the enterprise.

從投資組合績效的角度來看，一如既往，我們在 2022 年的首要任務是在生活方式品牌取得成功所必需的每個關鍵功能領域實現卓越。這方面的一個很好的例子是我們創建了一個卓越的營銷中心，作為我們新興品牌的內部代理服務，並利用整個企業的資源和知識。

Other examples include the establishment of an enterprise-wide corporate responsibility department, the enhancement of our long-term information technology strategy aimed at maximizing our return on IT investments, the initiation of a project to optimize fulfillment across the enterprise and enhanced leveraging of human capital across the enterprise. An essential part of driving shareholder value is sound capital allocation.

其他例子包括建立一個全企業範圍的企業責任部門，加強我們旨在最大限度地提高 IT 投資回報的長期信息技術戰略，啟動一個項目以優化整個企業的履行和加強人力資本的利用整個企業。推動股東價值的一個重要部分是合理的資本配置。

Starting the year with $210 million in cash and short-term investments and generating substantial cash flow, we were able to invest $47 million in the future growth of our business, acquired the Johnny Was brand and all its potential for $270 million, buyback $92 million of our stock to complete a $100 million repurchase program and return an additional $35 million to shareholders in the form of dividends.

今年年初，我們以 2.1 億美元的現金和短期投資產生了可觀的現金流，我們能夠投資 4700 萬美元用於我們業務的未來增長，以 2.7 億美元收購了 Johnny Was 品牌及其所有潛力，回購 9200 萬美元我們的股票完成 1 億美元的回購計劃，並以股息的形式向股東額外返還 3500 萬美元。

We are proud to have been able to both return significant capital to our shareholders and make significant investments in the future growth of our business, all while maintaining a very strong balance sheet. We are equally excited about our plans for 2023. Once again, we plan to have good growth in all 6 of our brands. Gross margin should also expand modestly during the year.

我們很自豪能夠向股東返還大量資本，並為我們業務的未來增長進行大量投資，同時保持非常強勁的資產負債表。我們對 2023 年的計劃同樣感到興奮。我們再次計劃在所有 6 個品牌中實現良好增長。毛利率也應在年內適度增長。

Our plan for 2023 includes a top line that is almost 50% larger than it was in 2019, an operating margin that is almost double what it was in 2019 and operating income that is more than 2.5x 2019's level. These are impressive growth numbers. And to put it plainly, the size of our platform has not kept pace with the size of our portfolio of businesses or with the opportunity for future growth.

我們的 2023 年計劃包括比 2019 年高出近 50% 的收入，營業利潤率幾乎是 2019 年的兩倍，營業收入是 2019 年水平的 2.5 倍以上。這些都是令人印象深刻的增長數字。簡而言之，我們平台的規模跟不上我們業務組合的規模或未來增長的機會。

Accordingly, and within the operating margin target I just outlined, we are excited to invest aggressively during 2023 in people, systems, stores, Marlin Bars and fulfillment infrastructure to support our growing business. Our willingness to invest is confirmation of our belief in our strategy and our future growth prospects.

因此，在我剛剛概述的營業利潤率目標範圍內，我們很高興在 2023 年期間積極投資於人員、系統、商店、Marlin Bars 和履行基礎設施，以支持我們不斷增長的業務。我們的投資意願證實了我們對我們的戰略和未來增長前景的信念。

Our confidence in our ability to blend art and science to deliver wonderful brand experiences to our customers through A+ product, A+ distribution and A+ communication has never been higher. The source of that confidence now and as always, is our people. We are incredibly grateful to each and every one of them for all that they do.

我們對通過 A+ 產品、A+ 分銷和 A+ 傳播將藝術與科學相結合，為客戶提供美妙品牌體驗的能力的信心從未如此高漲。現在和一如既往，這種信心的來源是我們的人民。我們非常感謝他們每一個人所做的一切。

Thank you, and I will now turn the call over to Scott for additional color on 2022 and our plans for 2023. Scott?

謝謝，現在我將把電話轉給斯科特，詢問 2022 年的其他顏色和我們 2023 年的計劃。斯科特？

Thank you, Tom. We had a record-setting fourth quarter that capped a terrific 2022, driven by continued strength in all selling channels across the portfolio. Our operating groups executed very well during 2022 and delivered double-digit top line growth within each brand.

謝謝你，湯姆。在整個投資組合的所有銷售渠道持續強勁的推動下，我們創造了創紀錄的第四季度，為 2022 年畫上了完美的句號。我們的運營團隊在 2022 年執行得非常好，每個品牌都實現了兩位數的收入增長。

Our largest brand, Tommy Bahama, had another exceptional year, with 22% top line growth and 350 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion to 19.6%. Lilly Pulitzer also achieved a 13% revenue growth and a 19.8% adjusted operating margin.

我們最大的品牌 Tommy Bahama 又迎來了一個非凡的一年，收入增長了 22%，調整後的營業利潤率增長了 350 個基點，達到 19.6%。禮來普利策也實現了 13% 的收入增長和 19.8% 的調整後營業利潤率。

In 2022, consolidated net sales were $1.41 billion, which included $73 million of sales for Johnny Was, growing 24% above last year's net sales of $1.14 billion, which included $25 million of sales from Lanier Apparel. The growth in our existing brands was strong across all of our full-price distribution channels with increases of 20% in full-price bricks and mortar, 13% in full price e-comm, 29% in wholesale, and 14% in restaurants.

2022 年，合併淨銷售額為 14.1 億美元，其中包括 Johnny Was 的 7300 萬美元銷售額，比去年 11.4 億美元的淨銷售額增長 24%，其中包括 Lanier Apparel 的 2500 萬美元銷售額。我們現有品牌在我們所有的全價分銷渠道中增長強勁，實體店全價增長 20%，電子商務全價增長 13%，批發增長 29%，餐廳增長 14%。

Additionally, we also had increased sales of $22 million in the Lilly Pulitzer's e-commerce flash sales and 14% in our outlets. Meanwhile, in addition to increasing sales, adjusted gross margin expanded 50 basis points over 2021 to 63.5%. We benefited from lower freight costs after experiencing very elevated freight rates in the second half of 2021.

此外，我們還在 Lilly Pulitzer 的電子商務閃購中增加了 2200 萬美元的銷售額，在我們的門店中增加了 14%。與此同時，除了增加銷售額外，調整後的毛利率比 2021 年擴大了 50 個基點，達到 63.5%。在 2021 年下半年運費大幅上漲後，我們受益於較低的運費。

We saw additional gross margin benefits from a better mix of sales, which was influenced by the addition of the higher gross margin Johnny Was and the 2021 exit of lower gross margin Lanier Apparel. IMUs increased as well as we raised prices more than our cost increased. These items were partially offset by the impact of Lilly Pulitzers, larger flash sales and lower gross margin on the flash sales in 2022 due to extremely lean inventory in 2021.

我們看到更好的銷售組合帶來了額外的毛利率收益，這受到毛利率較高的 Johnny Was 和毛利率較低的 Lanier Apparel 2021 年退出的影響。 IMU 的增加以及我們提高價格的幅度超過了我們成本的增加幅度。這些項目被 Lilly Pulitzers 的影響部分抵消，由於 2021 年庫存極度精簡，2022 年閃購的閃購量增加和毛利率下降。

We also had higher inventory markdowns in our Emerging Brands Group during 2022 as we wound up with some excess inventory as inventory purchases outpaced demand. Adjusted SG&A expenses were $684 million compared to $564 million last year. This increase was driven by increases in our existing businesses for employment costs, advertising costs, variable expenses and other expenses to fuel and support sales growth.

2022 年，我們的新興品牌集團的庫存降價幅度也更高，因為庫存採購超過需求，我們最終出現了一些過剩庫存。調整後的 SG&A 費用為 6.84 億美元，而去年為 5.64 億美元。這一增長是由於我們現有業務的就業成本、廣告成本、可變費用和其他費用增加，以推動和支持銷售增長。

Also, 2022 included $41 million of SG&A associated with the Johnny Was business for the 19-week period that we owned Johnny Was. While SG&A dollars increased, they did so at a slower pace relative to our sales growth, leading to an 80 basis points leveraging of SG&A. Result of all this yielded $234 million of adjusted operating income or 16.6% operating margin compared to $174 million or 15.3% in 2021, with the improved adjusted operating income driven by the strong results in Tommy Bahama and the operating income of Johnny Was for the 19 weeks since acquisition in September.

此外，2022 年包括在我們擁有 Johnny Was 的 19 週期間與 Johnny Was 業務相關的 4100 萬美元 SG&A。雖然 SG&A 美元有所增加，但相對於我們的銷售增長速度較慢，導致 SG&A 槓桿化 80 個基點。所有這一切的結果產生了 2.34 億美元的調整後營業收入或 16.6% 的營業利潤率，而 2021 年為 1.74 億美元或 15.3%，調整後營業收入的改善得益於 Tommy Bahama 的強勁業績和 Johnny Was 在 19 年的營業收入自 9 月收購以來的幾週。

This increased operating income was partially offset by a higher effective tax rate of 23% in 2022 and increased interest expense due to the borrowings associated with the acquisition of Johnny Was. Despite these offsets, we exhibited EPS expansion from an already excellent 2021. This led to adjusted EPS growth of 36% to $10.88.

這一增加的營業收入被 2022 年 23% 的更高有效稅率和因收購 Johnny Was 相關的借款而增加的利息支出部分抵消。儘管有這些抵消，我們展示了 EPS 從本已出色的 2021 年開始擴張。這導致調整後的 EPS 增長 36% 至 10.88 美元。

I'll now move on to the balance sheet, beginning with inventory. With inventories up 58% or $106 million year-over-year on a FIFO basis, we are in a good position to capture the sales momentum we built. Inventory levels at the beginning of the year were lower than optimal as demand outpaced inventory purchases throughout 2021. And we were unable to accelerate inventory purchases to keep up the demand.

我現在轉到資產負債表，從存貨開始。在 FIFO 的基礎上，庫存同比增長 58% 或 1.06 億美元，我們可以很好地把握我們建立的銷售勢頭。由於整個 2021 年的需求超過庫存採購，年初的庫存水平低於最佳水平。我們無法加快庫存採購來滿足需求。

Additionally, 2 other factors contributed to the inventory growth. $20 million of additional inventory from our acquisition of Johnny Was and the early receipt of about $20 million -- excuse me, of about $25 million of incremental inventory to mitigate the risk of potential supply chain disruptions, increased product cost raised inventory balances as well.

此外，還有 2 個其他因素導致了庫存增長。我們收購 Johnny Was 的 2000 萬美元額外庫存和提前收到約 2000 萬美元——對不起，約 2500 萬美元的增量庫存，以減輕潛在供應鏈中斷的風險，增加的產品成本也增加了庫存餘額。

Our planned revenue growth, which is 45% over where we were in 2019, outpaces our FIFO inventory growth of 37% over the same time period even with the early receipt of product. Further, with our strategic focus on core and key products in recent years, our inventory has a much greater mix of core and key product items rather than fashion items, which reduces inventory risk.

我們計劃的收入增長比 2019 年增長了 45%，超過了我們同期 37% 的 FIFO 庫存增長，即使提前收到產品也是如此。此外，由於我們近年來將戰略重點放在核心和關鍵產品上，我們的庫存中核心和關鍵產品項目的組合比時尚項目要多得多，這降低了庫存風險。

From a liquidity standpoint, we had $9 million of cash and cash equivalents versus $210 million of cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments at the end of 2021. We used our cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments to help fund our acquisition of Johnny Was. After considering our robust cash flow from operations, the acquisition of Johnny Was, capital expenditures and other items as well as our $127 million of capital returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, we had $119 million of borrowings outstanding under our $325 million revolving credit agreement at the end of 2022.

從流動性的角度來看，到 2021 年底，我們擁有 900 萬美元的現金和現金等價物，而現金和現金等價物以及短期投資為 2.1 億美元。我們使用現金和現金等價物以及短期投資來為我們的收購提供資金約翰尼是。考慮到我們強勁的運營現金流、收購 Johnny Was、資本支出和其他項目以及我們通過股票回購和股息向股東返還的 1.27 億美元資本後，我們的 3.25 億美元循環信貸下有 1.19 億美元的未償還借款2022年底達成協議。

I will also note that earlier this month, we amended our $325 million revolving credit agreement to extend the maturity of that agreement from July of 2024 to March of 2028. For all practical purposes, the asset-based loan agreement is consistent with the prior agreement other than extending the term, converting LIBOR to SOFR plus 10 basis points, increasing the spreads on variable interest rate borrowings by 25 basis points and an increase in certain amounts allowable for inclusion as eligible assets for the borrowing base calculation.

我還會注意到，本月早些時候，我們修改了 3.25 億美元的循環信貸協議，將該協議的期限從 2024 年 7 月延長至 2028 年 3 月。出於所有實際目的，基於資產的貸款協議與之前的協議一致除了延長期限外，將 LIBOR 轉換為 SOFR 加 10 個基點，將浮動利率借款的利差增加 25 個基點，並增加允許作為合格資產納入借款基礎計算的某些金額。

Over the last year, we have returned $127 million of capital directly to shareholders via dividends and open market share repurchases. $92 million of this came from repurchasing 1 million shares during 2022, representing the December 2022 completion of our $100 million share repurchase program initiated in the fourth quarter of 2021.

去年，我們通過股息和公開市場股票回購直接向股東返還了 1.27 億美元的資本。其中 9200 萬美元來自 2022 年回購 100 萬股股票，這意味著我們於 2021 年第四季度啟動的 1 億美元股票回購計劃已於 2022 年 12 月完成。

In total, we purchased more than 6% of the outstanding shares from the commencement date of that program. Looking forward, I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.65 per share for the first quarter of 2023 payable in April, which is an increase of 18% from the prior quarter's dividend of $0.55.

從該計劃開始之日起，我們總共購買了超過 6% 的已發行股票。展望未來，我很高興地宣布，我們的董事會宣布將於 4 月支付 2023 年第一季度每股 0.65 美元的股息，比上一季度的 0.55 美元股息增加 18%。

I'll now spend some time on our outlook for 2023. For the full year, we expect net sales to be between $1.62 billion and $1.66 billion, growth of 15% to 18% compared to sales of $1.41 billion in 2022. The increased sales plan in the 53-week 2023 includes the benefit of the full year of Johnny Was as well as growth in our existing brands in the mid-single-digit range, which consists of full price brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channel growth, generally flat wholesale and outlet store sales and lower e-commerce flash sales at Lilly Pulitzer, as Lilly Pulitzer is not having an e-commerce flash sale in the first quarter of 2023.

我現在將花一些時間談談我們對 2023 年的展望。就全年而言，我們預計淨銷售額將在 16.2 億美元至 16.6 億美元之間，與 2022 年的 14.1 億美元銷售額相比增長 15% 至 18%。銷售額增加2023 年 53 週的計劃包括 Johnny Was 全年的收益以及我們現有品牌在中等個位數範圍內的增長，其中包括全價實體店和電子商務渠道的增長，由於禮來普利策在 2023 年第一季度沒有電子商務閃購，禮來普利策的批發和直銷店銷售額總體持平，電子商務閃購較低。

We anticipate modest gross margin expansion in 2023, including the expectation of a higher proportion of full-price direct-to-consumer sales and a lower proportion of e-commerce flash and wholesale sales and the inclusion of the higher gross margin Johnny Was business for the full year 2023. These higher sales and improved gross margins are expected to be partially offset by increased SG&A, which is expected to grow at a rate higher than sales in 2023 as we invest in our business, including information technology spend and SG&A, higher employment cost, additional brick-and-mortar locations opening in 2023 and increased depreciation expense resulting from both IT spend and brick-and-mortar locations.

我們預計 2023 年毛利率將適度增長，包括預計更高的全價直接面向消費者銷售比例和更低的電子商務閃購和批發銷售比例，以及包括 Johnny Was 業務的更高毛利率2023 年全年。這些較高的銷售額和提高的毛利率預計將被增加的 SG&A 部分抵消，預計 SG&A 的增長率將高於 2023 年的銷售額，因為我們投資於我們的業務，包括信息技術支出和 SG&A，更高就業成本、2023 年開設的更多實體店以及 IT 支出和實體店導致的折舊費用增加。

Considering all these items, we expect that operating margin will decrease modestly from 2022 levels. Additionally, we anticipate higher interest expense at $5 million to $6 million with about half that interest expense in the first quarter, smaller increases in the second and third quarters and a decrease in the fourth quarter. This compares to $3 million of interest expense in the full year of 2022.

考慮到所有這些項目，我們預計營業利潤率將從 2022 年的水平小幅下降。此外，我們預計利息支出將增加至 500 萬至 600 萬美元，其中第一季度的利息支出約為一半，第二和第三季度的增幅較小，第四季度則有所減少。相比之下，2022 年全年的利息支出為 300 萬美元。

We also expect significantly higher effective tax rate of between 25% and 26% compared to 23% in 2022, which benefited from certain favorable items such as prior year operating loss utilizations and the reversal of some valuation allowances. After considering these items, 2023 adjusted EPS is expected to be between $11.50 and $11.90 versus adjusted EPS of $10.88 last year with the inclusion of a full year of operating income of Johnny Was and increased operating income in our existing businesses being partially offset by the increased income tax expense and interest expense. In the first quarter of 2023, we expect sales of $405 million to $425 million compared to sales of $353 million in the first quarter of 2022.

我們還預計有效稅率將從 2022 年的 23% 大幅提高至 25% 至 26%，這得益於某些有利的項目，例如上一年的經營虧損利用和一些估值準備金的逆轉。考慮這些項目後，2023 年調整後每股收益預計在 11.50 美元至 11.90 美元之間，而去年調整後每股收益為 10.88 美元，其中包括 Johnny Was 的全年營業收入和我們現有業務增加的營業收入被增加的部分抵消所得稅費用和利息費用。 2023 年第一季度，我們預計銷售額為 4.05 億美元至 4.25 億美元，而 2022 年第一季度的銷售額為 3.53 億美元。

In the first quarter of 2023, we expect many of the same factors driving our results would impact the year with higher sales, modest gross margin improvement, some SG&A deleveraging, higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate. We expect this to result in first quarter adjusted EPS of between $3.60 and $3.80 compared to $3.50 in the first quarter of 2022.

在 2023 年第一季度，我們預計推動我們業績的許多相同因素將影響這一年，銷售額增加、毛利率適度改善、一些 SG&A 去槓桿化、利息支出增加和有效稅率提高。我們預計這將導致第一季度調整後每股收益在 3.60 美元至 3.80 美元之間，而 2022 年第一季度為 3.50 美元。

Expanding on the theme of 2023 being an investment year, I'd like to briefly discuss our CapEx outlook for 2023. Capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 are expected to be approximately $90 million compared to $47 million in fiscal 2022. The planned increase is primarily due to increased investment in our various direct-to-consumer technology systems initiatives, the commencement of a significant multiyear project at our Lyons, Georgia distribution center to enhance its direct-to-consumer throughput capabilities, executing on our pipeline of Marlin Bars, including 3 expected to open in 2023. The addition of Johnny Was, which is increasing its store count by 10 or more stores this year, and increases in store openings in our other brands. We expect this elevated capital expenditure level to continue into 2024 before it begins to moderate in 2025 and beyond.

擴展到 2023 年是投資年的主題，我想簡要討論一下我們對 2023 年的資本支出展望。預計 2023 財年的資本支出約為 9000 萬美元，而 2022 財年為 4700 萬美元。計劃的增加主要是由於增加對我們各種直接面向消費者的技術系統計劃的投資，在我們佐治亞州里昂的配送中心開始一個重要的多年項目，以提高其直接面向消費者的吞吐量能力，在我們的 Marlin Bars 管道上執行，包括 3預計將於 2023 年開業。Johnny Was 的加入，今年的門店數量增加了 10 家或更多，我們其他品牌的門店數量也有所增加。我們預計這種上升的資本支出水平將持續到 2024 年，然後在 2025 年及以後開始放緩。

Moving beyond the income statement. We have a positive outlook on our cash and liquidity position as well. Cash flow from operations are expected to be very strong, giving us ample room to make the previously mentioned investments fund an 18% increase to quarterly dividend while also delevering throughout the year. Thank you for your time today, and now we'll turn the call over for questions. Stacy?

超越損益表。我們對我們的現金和流動性狀況也持樂觀態度。來自運營的現金流預計將非常強勁，這讓我們有足夠的空間讓前面提到的投資基金將季度股息增加 18%，同時全年去槓桿化。感謝您今天抽出時間，現在我們將把電話轉過來提問。斯泰西？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ed Yruma with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Ed Yruma 和 Piper Sandler。

I guess, first, Tom, on the shared services, I know you guys historically run a very decentralized organization. So I just wanted to unpack maybe some of the investments you're making. Does it change kind of the orientation of the business? And then I guess as we think in the medium term, when should we expect a resumption of SG&A leverage?

我想，首先，湯姆，關於共享服務，我知道你們歷來經營著一個非常分散的組織。所以我只想解開你正在進行的一些投資。它會改變業務的方向嗎？然後我想，正如我們在中期考慮的那樣，我們應該期望什麼時候恢復 SG&A 槓桿？

Okay. Thank you, Ed. So the -- our objective really with the centralized part of the company here at headquarters is what we want to do is look at all the key functions that you need to be good at, to be successful at, to successfully run a lifestyle brand. And then our approach to that is to drive excellence in each of those key functions, make sure that each of the brands is functioning at a very high level in each of those key functions. And then as we say, bundling where appropriate. And what that means is we will do things on a shared services basis where it makes sense to do so.

好的。謝謝你，埃德。所以 - 我們的目標實際上是在總部的公司集中部分，我們想要做的是看看你需要擅長，成功，成功經營生活方式品牌的所有關鍵職能。然後我們的方法是在每個關鍵功能上實現卓越，確保每個品牌在每個關鍵功能上都處於非常高的水平。然後正如我們所說，在適當的地方進行捆綁。這意味著我們將在共享服務的基礎上做一些有意義的事情。

We're not going to just default to that, but we'll do it where it makes sense to do so. And the example I gave in the prepared remarks, which I think we may have discussed with you previously was that with respect to the Emerging Brands Group, the 3 smaller brands, we thought that in order to be able to achieve the excellence that they need to have in digital marketing to be successful as lifestyle brands that we needed to bundle that digital marketing effort. So we did exactly that. We established and built a digital marketing center of excellence during 2022.

我們不會只是默認這樣做，但我們會在有意義的地方這樣做。我在準備好的評論中舉的例子，我想我們之前可能已經和你討論過，關於新興品牌集團，3 個較小的品牌，我們認為為了能夠實現他們需要的卓越為了在數字營銷中取得成功，我們需要將數字營銷工作捆綁在一起作為生活方式品牌。所以我們就是這麼做的。我們在 2022 年建立了卓越的數字營銷中心。

We started about 1/3 of the way through the year. And by the last 1/3 of the year, we were going wide open in that function, and we're very pleased that it's achieved very good results within the Emerging Brands Group, and that was part of the reason that they were able to deliver that 29% year-over-year growth.

我們開始了一年中大約 1/3 的時間。到今年的最後 1/3，我們在該職能上變得更加開放，我們很高興它在新興品牌集團內取得了非常好的結果，這也是他們能夠做到的部分原因實現 29% 的同比增長。

Then we talked about also during the prepared remarks, establishing an enterprise-wide corporate responsibility department, that's focused mainly on what I would call ESG-type efforts. As you know, very well, and we've always been a company that's been about doing the right thing. And there is now both market and regulatory impetus to do more in the ESG front. Tommy Bahama, our largest brand, had been out front on this and had set up their own corporate responsibility function, which was highly professionals and great people working in it. And what we decided was that, that was a function that all the brands need to be excellent at once again and so -- but we also thought that we would benefit from the scale of doing that on an enterprise-wide basis.

然後我們在準備好的發言中也談到了建立一個企業範圍的企業責任部門，該部門主要關注我所說的 ESG 類型的努力。如您所知，非常好，我們一直是一家做正確事情的公司。現在，市場和監管部門都希望在 ESG 方面做更多事情。我們最大的品牌 Tommy Bahama 在這方面走在了前列，並設立了自己的企業責任職能部門，由高度專業的人才和優秀的人才參與其中。我們決定的是，這是所有品牌都需要再次出色的功能 - 但我們也認為我們將從在企業範圍內這樣做的規模中受益。

So we centralized that as well. We actually moved the Tommy Bahama team over and made them a corporate enterprise-wide function. So that's sort of a thought process that we're going through, Ed. We're not going to centralize everything. Things like product design, we'll never centralize. I don't think. Things that are very customer facing and directly touching the customer, I don't think that we're going to centralize. In those areas, we'll just focus on making sure that we're excellent. And then in areas where we think there is an economic advantage to bundling, we'll do that. Does that help?

所以我們也集中了它。實際上，我們將 Tommy Bahama 團隊移了過來，並使他們成為企業範圍內的一個職能部門。所以這就是我們正在經歷的一種思考過程，Ed。我們不會集中一切。像產品設計這樣的事情，我們永遠不會集中。我不認為。非常面向客戶並直接接觸客戶的事情，我認為我們不會集中處理。在這些領域，我們只會專注於確保我們是優秀的。然後在我們認為捆綁具有經濟優勢的領域，我們會這樣做。這有幫助嗎？

Yes, it does. And on the SG&A, when can we kind of pencil in resumption of leverage on that line?

是的，它確實。在 SG&A 上，我們什麼時候可以在這條線上恢復槓桿作用？

Yes. As we said in the prepared remarks, we expect some deleveraging this year. And hopefully, when we get into '24, that will start turning. But we've got a lot of investments in system projects, and we also are adding some resources in the form of people in some key areas.

是的。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們預計今年會出現一些去槓桿化。希望當我們進入 24 世紀時，情況會開始轉變。但是我們在系統項目上有很多投入，我們也在一些關鍵領域以人員的形式增加一些資源。

We also have a lot of retail activity going on, including 3 Marlin Bars. And as you know, these Marlin Bars from the time you take possession until you open, it's about a 6-month period. So you have all the preopening costs, including rent going through your P&L.

我們還有很多零售活動正在進行，包括 3 Marlin Bars。如您所知，這些 Marlin Bars 從您擁有到開業，大約需要 6 個月的時間。所以你有所有的開業前成本，包括通過你的損益表支付的租金。

So we have a lot of items, but there are exciting items that I think are going to help fuel future growth of the business. And to be honest with you, we're playing a little bit of catch-up on SG&A. Our business has grown dramatically. And it's -- when you grow business the way it's grown, you're always -- it's hard to get that infrastructure add as quick as the sales are growing. So we're playing a little bit of catch-up in '23.

所以我們有很多項目，但我認為有一些令人興奮的項目將有助於推動業務的未來增長。老實說，我們正在 SG&A 上進行一些追趕。我們的業務發展迅猛。而且——當你按照業務增長的方式發展業務時，你總是——很難像銷售增長一樣快速地添加基礎設施。所以我們在 23 年進行了一些追趕。

Next question Dana Telsey with Telsey Group.

下一個問題是來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

Nice to see the fourth quarter results. As you're taking a look at next year and you talked a little about some of the increases in expenses, as you think about each brand, where could -- could they -- if it was better than expected, are there new products or categories that we should be looking for as we go through this year? And then just lastly, on the wholesale business, where you talked about flat, I believe, what are you seeing on the wholesale business overall? And how do you think about the health of the consumer with the exit rate as you exited the quarter?

很高興看到第四季度的結果。當你回顧明年時，你談到了一些支出的增加，當你想到每個品牌時，如果它比預期好，它們可以在哪裡——它們可以——是否有新產品或今年我們應該尋找哪些類別？最後，關於批發業務，我相信你談到了扁平化，你對整個批發業務有什麼看法？當您退出本季度時，您如何看待退出率對消費者健康的影響？

Okay. Dana, I'll start with the wholesale question, and I think that we're planning on it being flat, as you know very well because you follow so many of these people. Most of the major retailers are being very, very careful and cautious about their forward inventory buys. Most of them are actually buying down on a year-over-year basis. So in our view, and we see this in the results that we're achieving on the selling floor, flat is actually an outperform in wholesale this year. So we're really pretty happy with that. And while we'd love to see growth, we also like to see the big retailers being prudent about their inventory buy.

好的。 Dana，我將從批發問題開始，我認為我們計劃將其持平，正如你非常了解的那樣，因為你關注了這麼多人。大多數主要零售商對其遠期庫存購買都非常非常謹慎。他們中的大多數人實際上是在逐年購買。因此，在我們看來，我們在銷售場上取得的成果中看到了這一點，今年批發市場的表現實際上是持平。所以我們對此非常滿意。雖然我們希望看到增長，但我們也希望看到大型零售商對其庫存購買持謹慎態度。

Then on the health of the consumer, what I would tell you, and this shows up very much in our fourth quarter results, is that the health of the consumer has been good. For the consumers that we service, I think the health of the consumer has been good. We expect it to continue to be good. We're not looking for a major macro rebound in the economy, but we think our consumer will hold up pretty well through the year.

然後關於消費者的健康，我要告訴你的是，這在我們第四季度的業績中得到了很好的體現，那就是消費者的健康狀況一直很好。對於我們服務的消費者，我認為消費者的健康狀況一直很好。我們預計它會繼續保持良好狀態。我們並不期待經濟出現重大的宏觀反彈，但我們認為我們的消費者將在今年保持良好狀態。

And I think the primary risk at this point to be very direct about it, is probably what's been happening in the banking world and the Fed and sort of regulatory response to that. Our belief is that we will get through that the Fed and the regulators will navigate us through that without it becoming a much larger problem. But that would be the one sort of uncontrollable factor that I think is out there at the moment. And again, we think they're going to get through it. Our consumer will hold up. But this week, in particular, it's hard not to have that sort of top of mind. And what was the third thing?

我認為目前最直接的主要風險可能是銀行業和美聯儲正在發生的事情以及對此的監管反應。我們相信，我們將度過難關，美聯儲和監管機構將引導我們渡過難關，而不會成為一個更大的問題。但那將是我認為目前存在的一種不可控制的因素。再一次，我們認為他們會挺過去的。我們的消費者會堅持下去。但尤其是本週，很難不把這種想法放在首位。第三件事是什麼？

Opportunities...

機會...

Opportunities, yes, from a product or category standpoint. Dana, I think that there are some big opportunities that are really more about growing existing categories. So I think in Tommy Bahama in the women's dress category, we've got a lot of room to run our dress business, has been very strong there. But I think we can continue to build that.

機會，是的，從產品或類別的角度來看。 Dana，我認為有一些重要的機會更多地與發展現有類別有關。所以我認為在 Tommy Bahama 的女裝類別中，我們有很大的空間來經營我們的服裝業務，在那裡非常強大。但我認為我們可以繼續建立它。

And as you know, that is a very large category within the total apparel market. I would tell you the same thing within Johnny Was. I think they have a very large opportunity in dresses in particular. And again, they're having very good success with, they're building it very nicely. Historically, they've been a little light on dresses as a percentage to their total. And I think they've got lots of room to grow there. Then in addition to those types of opportunities where we can grow a big category at a sort of an enhanced rate of growth.

如您所知，這是整個服裝市場中一個非常大的類別。我會在 Johnny Was 中告訴你同樣的事情。我認為他們有很大的機會，尤其是在連衣裙方面。再一次，他們取得了非常好的成功，他們正在很好地構建它。從歷史上看，他們對連衣裙佔總數的百分比有點輕。我認為他們在那裡有很大的發展空間。然後，除了那些類型的機會之外，我們還可以以某種更高的增長率發展一個大類別。

I think throughout the company, there are some fill-in opportunities and one -- that's not going to be huge overnight and probably even over the long term, I don't think is an enormous category. But we recently started in Lilly Pulitzer some enhanced home product. And the concept there is to be the destination of choice for sort of an elevated, elegant hostess gift. And we've started out with a small assortment of items, some picture frames and things like that. But we're pleased with the early performance and we think we can do some business in that space. I think we've got similar opportunities like that across the company.

我認為整個公司都有一些填補機會，而且一個 - 這不會在一夜之間變得巨大，甚至可能從長期來看，我認為這不是一個巨大的類別。但我們最近開始在 Lilly Pulitzer 推出一些增強型家居產品。那裡的概念是作為一種高雅、優雅的女主人禮物的首選目的地。我們從一小部分物品開始，一些相框之類的東西。但我們對早期表現感到滿意，我們認為我們可以在該領域開展一些業務。我認為我們在整個公司都有類似的機會。

Next question, Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

下一個問題，花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I had 2 questions. The first 1 was on your SG&A. In fourth quarter, I was wondering if you could talk about how much markdown levels or either up or down versus last year? And then what was freight relative to last year? And then for both of those pieces, what's embedded in your gross margin guidance for 2023? I think you said moderately up, just wondering what you're assuming for markdowns and promotions versus freight? And then I have a follow-up when you're done with that.

Tracy Kogan 代替了 Paul。我有兩個問題。第一個在您的 SG&A 上。在第四季度，我想知道你是否可以談談與去年相比有多少減價水平或上升或下降？那麼與去年相比運費是多少？然後對於這兩個部分，您對 2023 年的毛利率指導中包含什麼？我想你說的是適度上漲，只是想知道你對降價和促銷與運費的假設是什麼？當你完成後，我會進行跟進。

Okay. Freight, pretty much returned -- the freight rates pretty much returned to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter. And our use of airfreight was down considerably from what it had been earlier, maybe a tiny bit elevated from pre-pandemic. So there really wasn't a lot of freight noise in our fourth quarter.

好的。運費，幾乎已經退回——運費在第四季度幾乎恢復到大流行前的水平。我們對空運的使用比之前大大減少，可能比大流行前略有增加。所以我們第四季度真的沒有太多貨運噪音。

And going into '23, we're really not -- freight rates are much better, and we think our supply chain, we have accelerated our merchandising calendar. So we really expect very little airfreight this year. So I don't think freight will really be much of a negative factor at all in gross margins in '23.

進入 23 年，我們真的沒有——運費要好得多，我們認為我們的供應鏈，我們已經加快了我們的銷售日曆。所以我們真的預計今年的空運量會很少。因此，我認為運費不會真正成為 23 年毛利率的負面因素。

And on the markdown?

和降價？

As far as inventory markdowns. Yes, the main -- we had -- we had -- in our Emerging Brands Group, we did take some inventory markdowns last year. And we do not anticipate anniversarying those. Lilly flash sale, we think we'll be a little bit smaller in '23 than it was in '22.

至於庫存降價。是的，主要的——我們有——我們有——在我們的新興品牌集團，我們去年確實採取了一些庫存降價措施。而且我們不希望週年紀念日。 Lilly 閃購，我們認為我們在 23 年的規模會比 22 年小一些。

And so overall, I think our inventory markdown rates will be a tiny bit less year-over-year. And we think we'll start with a little bit higher IMU, modestly higher IMU and then we do have the add of the Johnny Was business for the full year, which will help. And then wholesale will be a little bit lower piece of the mix. So I think we have some mix advantages, they'll be running through '23 that will help gross margin some.

所以總的來說，我認為我們的庫存降價率會比去年同期略低。我們認為我們將從稍微高一點的 IMU 開始，適度提高 IMU，然後我們確實增加了全年的 Johnny Was 業務，這將有所幫助。然後批發會稍微低一點的混搭。所以我認為我們有一些混合優勢，他們將在 23 年運行，這將有助於提高毛利率。

Got it. And then I just had a follow-up. I think you said you expect to open 10 or more Johnny Was stores. And I was wondering if you could talk about what you -- what the new store model there looks like in terms of the new store investments and your payback period compared to Tommy or Lilly store. And was wondering how many of those leases you've actually signed already for 2023?

知道了。然後我剛剛進行了跟進。我想你說過你希望開設 10 家或更多 Johnny Was 商店。我想知道你是否可以談談你 - 與 Tommy 或 Lilly 商店相比，那裡的新店模式在新店投資和投資回收期方面是什麼樣的。想知道您實際上已經為 2023 年簽署了多少租約？

Yes. I'll make a quick comment on it and then let Scott follow on. But I think Johnny Was has a slightly different approach to stores than our other brands. They're a little bit smaller. I think their average square footage is 1,600 or so square feet, so a little smaller than most of the -- well, really than all of the Tommy stores fundamentally and a little bit smaller than Lilly runs as well.

是的。我將對其進行快速評論，然後讓 Scott 繼續。但我認為 Johnny Was 對門店的處理方式與我們其他品牌略有不同。它們有點小。我認為他們的平均面積是 1,600 平方英尺左右，所以比大多數 - 好吧，實際上比所有 Tommy 商店都小一點，也比 Lilly 經營的小一點。

They also go into some, what I would call, somewhat niche-type location. So in the past, really, even since we bought them, they opened in Santa Fe, which is the first store that we have in Santa Fe, but we think that's a great spot for them, and we're excited about that one. Another example would be a tiny little store that I did in Vero Beach, Florida. I think it's like 600 square feet and it's almost like a little beach bungalow and just it's so right for the brand.

他們也進入了一些，我稱之為，有點小眾的位置。所以在過去，真的，即使我們買了他們，他們在聖達菲開了，這是我們在聖達菲的第一家商店，但我們認為那對他們來說是個好地方，我們對此感到興奮。另一個例子是我在佛羅里達州維羅海灘開的一家小店。我認為它大約有 600 平方英尺，幾乎就像一個小海灘平房，而且非常適合這個品牌。

It looks terrific. And all that. And then what they do is they tend to do these smaller niche-type locations. And then they really work with what's there and just sort of make it their own. So the build-out cost actually tends to be a little bit lower than in our other brands. And I'll let Scott fill in some of the details on the investment level and the payback.

看起來棒極了。還有這一切。然後他們所做的是他們傾向於做這些較小的利基型位置。然後他們真正地使用那裡的東西，只是把它變成他們自己的。因此，擴建成本實際上往往比我們其他品牌的要低一點。我會讓斯科特填寫一些關於投資水平和回報的細節。

Yes. Yes. Johnny Was is investing less. So the paybacks are usually less than 2 years on a retail store, some even quicker than that. So they're very productive. They also you see build in different several kick-out rights and leases. So -- but usually were 10-year leases, but several ways to get out if it doesn't work. Of the 10 or so that we're going to open, we've probably got 6 or 7 signed and we've got multiple other ones in various stages of negotiations.

是的。是的。 Johnny Was 正在減少投資。因此，零售店的投資回收期通常不到 2 年，有些甚至更快。所以他們非常有生產力。您還可以看到他們內置了不同的踢出權和租約。所以——但通常是 10 年的租約，但如果它不起作用，有幾種退出方式。在我們將要開放的 10 個左右的項目中，我們可能已經簽署了 6 或 7 個，而且我們還有多個處於不同談判階段的其他項目。

Some could open this year, some might be next year. So we're excited about the growth. We think there's still a lot of runway for new stores. We're also opening stores in the other brands may be (inaudible) open some stores, Southern Tide will open quite a few stores. Lilly will get a couple open and we've got 3 Tommy Bahama, Marlin Bars that we're very excited about.

有的今年開，有的明年開。所以我們對增長感到興奮。我們認為新店仍有很多跑道。我們也在其他品牌開店，可能（聽不清）開一些店，南潮會開很多店。 Lilly 將開放一對，我們有 3 個 Tommy Bahama，Marlin Bars，我們對此感到非常興奮。

That pipeline in the Marlin Bars was something that takes a while to get going, and we have a real pipeline in Marlin Bars. So I think we'll be able to open at least 3 next year and through the next several years. So the brick-and-mortar front, I think we've got a lot of exciting growth happening.

Marlin Bars 中的管道需要一段時間才能開始，而我們在 Marlin Bars 中有一個真正的管道。所以我認為我們明年和未來幾年至少可以開 3 家。因此，在實體店方面，我認為我們已經取得了很多令人興奮的增長。

Our last question comes from Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc.

我們的最後一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Noah Zatzkin。

First, wondering if you could provide any color on the exit rate leaving 2022. And then relatedly, on top line growth by brand contemplated in the $405 million to $425 million 1Q revenue guidance range. And then second, just on inventory, how are you feeling about the position and overall composition? I think you noted that the increase versus '19 was driven by $20 million of incremental Johnny Was inventory and I think $25 million of earlier receipts, but just if you could help unpack that a bit.

首先，想知道您是否可以提供有關 2022 年退出率的任何顏色。然後相關地，按品牌預計的收入增長在 4.05 億美元至 4.25 億美元的第一季度收入指導範圍內。其次，就庫存而言，您對位置和整體構成有何看法？我想你注意到與 19 年相比的增長是由 2000 萬美元的增量 Johnny Was 庫存驅動的，我認為是 2500 萬美元的早期收據，但只要你能幫助解開一點。

Okay. Regarding the exit rate, for the fourth quarter of 2021, I assume you mean the -- or excuse me, fourth quarter of 2022, you mean the sales trajectory?

好的。關於退出率，對於 2021 年第四季度，我假設你的意思是 - 或者對不起，2022 年第四季度，你的意思是銷售軌跡？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So, if you remember, Noah, back in our December call, we said that November had actually been a little bit softer than the prior year, that did not seen them out of whack to us because in 2021, people had bought so early.

是的。所以，諾亞，如果你還記得的話，在我們 12 月的電話會議上，我們說 11 月實際上比前一年要軟一些，這並沒有讓我們感到不正常，因為在 2021 年，人們買得太早了。

So we weren't entirely surprised by that. And what we saw was a very normalizing environment in Q4, where November was not as good as November of '21, but much more like what prior Novembers have looked like. And then obviously, as our fourth quarter results reflect, the rest of the quarter ended up being strong. And then in February, we also had a good month. I've seen a lot of other people in our space talk about February being tough, but we actually had quite a good February.

所以我們對此並不完全感到驚訝。我們在第四季度看到了一個非常正常化的環境，11 月不如 21 年的 11 月好，但更像之前 11 月的樣子。然後很明顯，正如我們第四季度的結果所反映的那樣，本季度的其餘部分最終表現強勁。然後在二月，我們也度過了一個愉快的月份。我看到我們這個領域的很多其他人都在談論 2 月很艱難，但實際上我們的 2 月過得很好。

We were pretty happy with what we saw in February. And as we sit here today, March has been slightly choppy, but we believe we've factored all that into our forecast. And we think that as the weather turns and Easter and spring breaks approach, which are a pretty meaningful catalyst for us on the sales front. And then we get into all the summer holidays, Memorial Day, Mother's Day and Father's Day, 4th of July, we couldn't be more excited about what we've got ahead of us.

我們對 2 月份的情況感到非常滿意。當我們今天坐在這裡時，3 月份略有波動，但我們相信我們已將所有這些因素納入我們的預測。我們認為，隨著天氣的轉變以及復活節和春假的臨近，這對我們的銷售來說是一個非常有意義的催化劑。然後我們進入所有的暑假，陣亡將士紀念日、母親節和父親節，7 月 4 日，我們對即將到來的事情感到無比興奮。

And as far as the inventory, we've $20 million more Johnny Was, and we have about $25 million from accelerating the supply chain really to -- there's been interruptions out there, and we wanted to bring goods in earlier to make sure we had them earlier. We also mentioned that our lines are -- we have a much heavier focus on core and key items. In a lot of those programs, you tend to bring in the season's inventory at the beginning of that season versus fashion where you're bringing in monthly, you're bringing in delivery. So that tends to -- when you have a more core key item business, you tend to carry a little more inventory.

就庫存而言，我們還有 2000 萬美元的 Johnny Was，我們有大約 2500 萬美元用於加速供應鏈——那裡有中斷，我們想早點把貨物運進來以確保我們有他們更早。我們還提到我們的路線是 - 我們更加關注核心和關鍵項目。在很多這樣的項目中，你傾向於在當季開始時引入當季的庫存，而在時尚界，你每月引入，你引入交付。所以這往往——當你有一個更核心的關鍵項目業務時，你往往會攜帶更多的庫存。

So when you -- we like to compare back to '19 and even despite the Johnny Was and the acceleration, our anticipated sales are expected to much outpace what the inventory growth has been. So we feel good about our inventory, the composition of it and the levels, and we think we're set up well to capture demand in '23.

因此，當你 - 我們喜歡與 19 年進行比較，即使 Johnny Was 和加速，我們的預期銷售額預計將遠遠超過庫存增長。因此，我們對我們的庫存、庫存的構成和水平感覺良好，我們認為我們已經準備好捕捉 23 年的需求。

I would like to turn the floor over to Tom Chubb for closing remarks.

我想請 Tom Chubb 發表閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you all very much for your time and your interest in our company, and we look forward to talking to you again in June and hope all is well with you until then.

好的。非常感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間和對我們公司的興趣，我們期待在 6 月再次與您交談，並希望在那之前一切都好。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。