Oxford Industries Inc (OXM) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Oxford Industries, Inc. Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加牛津工業公司 2023 財年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Brian Smith, Director of Financial Reports and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹財務報告和投資者關係總監布萊恩·史密斯(Brian Smith)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good afternoon.

謝謝你，下午好。

Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒與會者，今天的電話會議和問答環節中所做的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述不是保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。今天早些時候發布的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中討論了可能導致實際運營結果或我們的財務狀況出現差異的重要因素，包括我們的 10-K 表格中包含的風險因素。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at oxfordinc.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中找到非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調節表，該新聞稿發佈在我們網站 oxfordinc.com 的“投資者關係”選項卡下。

And now I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO; and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO.

現在我想介紹一下今天的電話會議參與者。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼首席執行官 Tom Chubb；首席財務官兼首席運營官斯科特·格拉斯邁爾 (Scott Grassmyer)。

Thank you for your attention. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

感謝您的關注。現在我想把電話轉給湯姆·查布。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。

Before I jump into reporting on results for the second quarter and our outlook for the balance of the year, I want to start by acknowledging the state of Hawaii and the island of Maui in particular, which have been a very important and special part of our business for many years. We have over 200 members who live on Maui and over 450 in the state of Hawaii. These are wonderful people who we value greatly and our hearts are with all of them as they work to recover from the devastation of the recent wildfires. I am also proud of -- been grateful for the generosity of our associates across the enterprise who have pitched in in so many ways to help the people of Maui recover from this disaster. This generosity and the resilience of our people in Maui and Hawaii are among the characteristics that make Oxford such a great company.

在我開始報告第二季度的業績和我們對今年剩餘時間的展望之前，我想首先感謝夏威夷州和毛伊島，它們是我們的一個非常重要和特殊的部分經營多年。我們有 200 多名會員居住在毛伊島，450 多名會員居住在夏威夷州。這些都是我們非常珍視的優秀人士，當他們努力從最近的野火破壞中恢復過來時，我們的心與他們同在。我還感到自豪——感謝整個企業員工的慷慨解囊，他們以多種方式伸出援手，幫助毛伊島人民從這場災難中恢復過來。毛伊島和夏威夷人民的慷慨和堅韌是牛津成為一家偉大公司的特質之一。

Moving to our results. We're pleased to be reporting sales and adjusted earnings per share within our forecasted range given the choppy operating environment. During the quarter, we achieved 16% total year-over-year revenue growth driven by our acquisition of Johnny Was in the third quarter of last year and a 1% increase on an organic basis, which is on top of 11% organic growth in the year ago period. In addition to the tough comparison, the more modest organic growth rate this year reflects, as widely reported across the marketplace, a customer that has become somewhat more cautious with regard to discretionary purchases.

轉向我們的結果。鑑於動蕩的經營環境，我們很高興報告銷售額和調整後每股收益在我們的預測範圍內。在去年第三季度收購 Johnny Was 的帶動下，本季度我們的總收入同比增長了 16%，有機增長 1%，高於去年同期 11% 的有機增長。一年前的時期。除了嚴格的比較之外，正如市場上廣泛報導的那樣，今年較溫和的有機增長率反映出客戶對於可自由支配的購買變得更加謹慎。

As you know, our purpose as a company is evoke happiness in our customers with our brands. Our customer metrics indicate that we are doing exactly that. Excitement for and interest in our brands remains very high. Our active customer count and new customer add rate are both growing and our average order value has held steady, and we have seen higher traffic across our portfolio of brands this year. At the same time, conversion rates are lower on a year-over-year basis. In addition, consumers are making more of their purchases during our promotional events. Both of these factors reinforce the notion that the consumer has become more cautious in their discretionary spending than they were a year ago with the increased purchasing activity during promotional periods also putting some modest gross pressure on gross margins.

如您所知，我們公司的宗旨是通過我們的品牌喚起客戶的幸福感。我們的客戶指標表明我們正在這樣做。人們對我們品牌的興奮和興趣仍然很高。我們的活躍客戶數量和新客戶增加率都在增長，平均訂單價值保持穩定，而且今年我們的品牌組合的流量有所增加。與此同時，轉化率同比較低。此外，消費者在我們的促銷活動期間進行了更多的購買。這兩個因素都強化了這樣一種觀念，即消費者在可自由支配的支出上比一年前更加謹慎，促銷期間購買活動的增加也給毛利率帶來了一定的總壓力。

As we move down the income statement, we saw some operating deleverage during the quarter as a result of our increased investment in a couple of key expense categories. The first is employment expense. Our team is our most valuable asset and is the key to all our success. To be certain that we can continue to be successful going forward, we need to ensure that we have a sufficient number of staff and that they are fairly compensated.

當我們向下移動損益表時，我們發現由於我們增加了對幾個關鍵費用類別的投資，本季度運營槓桿率有所下降。首先是就業費用。我們的團隊是我們最寶貴的資產，也是我們成功的關鍵。為了確保我們能夠繼續取得成功，我們需要確保我們擁有足夠數量的員工並且他們得到公平的報酬。

Last year, the growth in our business has outrun the size of our staff and we had a bit of catching up to do to be fully staffed. In addition, we are continuing to invest in our team in an inflationary environment by increasing wage rates and salaries to ensure that we stay competitive and can continue to attract and retain the best people.

去年，我們業務的增長超過了我們員工的規模，我們需要做一些努力才能配備齊全的員工。此外，在通脹環境下，我們將繼續通過提高工資率和薪水對我們的團隊進行投資，以確保我們保持競爭力，並能夠繼續吸引和留住最優秀的人才。

The second major area of increased expense is in advertising and promotion. As the post-pandemic rebound moves further into the rearview mirror and the market and consumer continue to normalize, we want to make sure we are doing what we need to in order to maintain high levels of excitement about and awareness of our brands. Accordingly, we have increased our advertising spend levels this year, both in absolute dollars and as a percentage of sales, especially in awareness advertising and experimenting with new media channels.

支出增加的第二個主要領域是廣告和促銷。隨著疫情后的反彈進一步進入後視鏡，市場和消費者繼續正常化，我們希望確保我們正在做我們需要做的事情，以保持對我們品牌的高度興奮和認知度。因此，我們今年增加了廣告支出水平，無論是絕對金額還是佔銷售額的百分比，特別是在宣傳廣告和嘗試新媒體渠道方面。

Finally, we are feeling the impact of depreciation, software subscription and other expenses related to technology and other investments we have made to ensure that we have a modern omnichannel selling platform. While these expenses are causing some short-term operating deleverage in a weaker demand environment, we believe that all 3 of these areas represent prudent investments in our future. In keeping with our purpose and objective to evoke happiness in our customers and deliver long-term value to our shareholders, we have a number of strategic initiatives underway which are all designed to drive excellence across our portfolio of lifestyle brands to help spur sustain profitable growth.

最後，我們感受到了折舊、軟件訂閱和其他與技術相關的費用以及我們為確保擁有現代化全渠道銷售平台而進行的其他投資的影響。雖然這些費用在需求疲軟的環境下導致了一些短期經營去槓桿化，但我們相信所有這三個領域都代表了我們未來的審慎投資。為了實現我們為客戶帶來幸福並為股東創造長期價值的宗旨和目標，我們正在進行多項戰略舉措，這些舉措都是為了推動我們生活方式品牌組合的卓越表現，幫助刺激可持續的盈利增長。

The biggest of these initiatives is a multiyear Southeastern United States fulfillment center enhancement project to ensure best-in-class direct-to-consumer throughput capabilities for our brands. When complete, the fulfillment center will help support our very large, highly profitable e-commerce business across all our brands and will help support our retail business in the eastern half of the country, particularly Florida which is our largest revenue state by a wide margin.

其中最大的舉措是一項為期多年的美國東南部履行中心增強項目，以確保我們的品牌擁有一流的直接面向消費者的吞吐量能力。竣工後，該履行中心將幫助支持我們所有品牌的規模龐大、利潤豐厚的電子商務業務，並將幫助支持我們在美國東半部的零售業務，特別是佛羅里達州，該州是我們收入最大的州。

Another very exciting initiative is the upcoming relaunch of the Johnny Was website. The new Johnny Was website will have the same beautiful aspirational look and feel of the current site but will utilize the excellent best-in-class technology platform that powers our Lilly Pulitzer website. The result will be a website that is 100% Johnny Was and is much more searchable, more shoppable, easier to check out and overall provides a better customer experience. When launched later this year, we expect the new site to drive incremental growth in our Johnny Was e-commerce business.

另一項非常令人興奮的舉措是即將重新推出 Johnny Was 網站。新的 Johnny Was 網站將具有與當前網站相同的美麗、令人嚮往的外觀和感覺，但將利用為我們的禮來普利策網站提供支持的卓越的一流技術平台。結果將是一個 100% Johnny Was 的網站，更容易搜索、更容易購物、更容易結帳，並且總體上提供更好的客戶體驗。當今年晚些時候推出時，我們預計新網站將推動 Johnny Was 電子商務業務的增量增長。

In addition to the website and the fulfillment center projects, we are driving excellence across the portfolio by leveraging our talented people across the brands. Specifically, we have been shifting functional expertise across brands to enhance areas that will further support operational excellence across the enterprise. Aligning talent with opportunities to have the maximum impact on the business benefits both the company and the employees.

除了網站和履行中心項目之外，我們還利用各個品牌的人才來推動整個產品組合的卓越發展。具體來說，我們一直在跨品牌轉移職能專業知識，以加強進一步支持整個企業卓越運營的領域。將人才與機會結合起來，對業務產生最大的影響，對公司和員工都有好處。

Our healthy business continues to generate strong cash flow and we remain focused on using that cash wisely by investing in organic growth and acquisition opportunities and the return of capital to our shareholders all while maintaining a very healthy balance sheet. This quarter provides an excellent example of that focus in action.

我們健康的業務繼續產生強勁的現金流，我們仍然專注於通過投資於有機增長和收購機會以及向股東回報資本來明智地使用現金，同時保持非常健康的資產負債表。本季度提供了一個將重點付諸行動的絕佳例子。

During the quarter, we opened 5 net new locations bringing our total for the year to 8 net new locations. By the end of the year, we expect to have opened 25 net new locations, bringing our total count to close to 320 stores and retail bar restaurant locations. In addition, the beautiful Tommy Bahama Miramonte Resort in Indian Wells, California, is on track to open in the third quarter.

本季度，我們淨開設 5 家新店，使全年淨新店總數達到 8 家。到今年年底，我們預計將淨開設 25 家新店，使我們的商店和零售酒吧餐廳店總數接近 320 家。此外，位於加利福尼亞州印第安維爾斯的美麗的湯米巴哈馬米拉蒙特度假村預計將於第三季度開業。

Included in the openings during the quarter was a beautiful new Marlin Bar in Tommy Bahama store in Palm Beach Gardens. The Marlin Bar is off to a terrific start, and as always, has dramatically enhanced our retail business in that location, particularly our women's business. This Marlin Bar is unique among the 8 that we have opened so far in that it is in an indoor/outdoor location situated at the entrance to an enclosed mall.

本季度新開業的包括位於棕櫚灘花園的 Tommy Bahama 商店內的一家漂亮的新 Marlin 酒吧。馬林酒吧有了一個良好的開端，一如既往，極大地增強了我們在該地區的零售業務，特別是我們的女性業務。這家 Marlin 酒吧在我們迄今為止開設的 8 家酒吧中是獨一無二的，因為它位於封閉式購物中心入口處的室內/室外位置。

Our hospitality business is the linchpin of our Tommy Bahama strategy and with 2 more Marlin bars scheduled to open this year and 3 planned for fiscal '24, we are extremely excited about the growth that it will help us fuel for many years to come.

我們的酒店業務是 Tommy Bahama 戰略的關鍵，預計今年將開設 2 家 Marlin 酒吧，併計劃在 2024 財年開設 3 家，我們對增長感到非常興奮，它將幫助我們在未來的許多年裡提供動力。

Our cash generation during the quarter also benefited from our acquisition of Johnny Was last year with Johnny Was contributing $7.3 million of adjusted operating profit or approximately $0.34 a share to our quarterly results. We are delighted to have Johnny Was as part of the portfolio and believe it has lots of runway to grow topline and expand operating margin going forward.

我們本季度的現金生成還得益於我們去年收購了 Johnny Was，Johnny Was 為我們的季度業績貢獻了 730 萬美元的調整後營業利潤，即每股約 0.34 美元。我們很高興 Johnny Was 成為我們投資組合的一部分，並相信它在未來有很大的空間來增加收入和擴大營業利潤。

The strong cash flow allowed us to pay down $46 million of debt leaving $48 million outstanding while repurchasing $19 million of stock or approximately 196,000 shares representing 1% of our outstanding stock, paying $10 million in dividends and investing $15 million in capital expenditures during the quarter.

強勁的現金流使我們能夠償還4,600 萬美元的債務，留下4,800 萬美元的未償債務，同時回購1,900 萬美元的股票或約196,000 股，佔已發行股票的1%，支付1,000 萬美元的股息，並在本季度投資1,500 萬美元的資本支出。

Our inventories are very healthy, and we're in outstanding position to continue to deliver robust cash flow for the balance of the year and for many years to come. Scott will provide more details on the quarter and the balance of the year in a moment. But as we look forward, given the impact of the Maui wildfires and a slightly more hesitant consumer purchasing behavior to start the third quarter, we believe building in a bit of caution to our guidance for the balance of the year is prudent. At the same time, we know that our efforts to evoke happiness, drive excellence across the portfolio and invest in our business will drive profitable growth and long-term shareholder value for many years to come as evidenced by our expected 10-year adjusted EPS CAGR of 14% based on our updated guidance range.

我們的庫存非常健康，我們處於有利地位，能夠在今年剩餘時間和未來許多年繼續提供強勁的現金流。斯科特稍後將提供有關本季度和年度餘額的更多詳細信息。但展望未來，考慮到毛伊島野火的影響以及第三季度開始消費者購買行為稍顯猶豫，我們認為對今年剩餘時間的指導採取謹慎態度是明智的。與此同時，我們知道，我們為喚起幸福感、推動整個投資組合的卓越以及投資於我們的業務所做的努力將在未來許多年推動盈利增長和長期股東價值，我們預期的10 年調整後每股收益複合年增長率就證明了這一點根據我們更新的指導範圍，為 14%。

Now I will turn the call over to Scott for more details on the quarter and the balance of the year. Scott?

現在我將把電話轉給斯科特，了解有關本季度和今年剩餘時間的更多詳細信息。斯科特？

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

As Tom mentioned, we are pleased to report another strong quarter that is within our guidance range. In an uncertain macroeconomic environment where the consumer has become more cautious, our operating groups executed very well going against direct-to-consumer comps of 14% in the second quarter of 2022. Consolidated net sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 were $420 million, which included $52 million of sales for Johnny Was and increases in each operating group, growing 16% above last year's second quarter net sales were $363 million.

正如湯姆提到的，我們很高興地報告另一個在我們指導範圍內的強勁季度。在不確定的宏觀經濟環境中，消費者變得更加謹慎，我們的運營團隊表現出色，2022 年第二季度直接面向消費者的業績增長了14%。2023 財年第二季度的綜合淨銷售額為4.2 億美元，其中包括 Johnny Was 的 5200 萬美元銷售額以及各運營集團的增長，比去年第二季度 3.63 億美元的淨銷售額增長了 16%。

In the aggregate, Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Emerging Brands had decreases of 3% and full price brick-and-mortar 4%, full price e-commerce and 7% in wholesale sales. These declines were offset by 8% growth in our food and beverage business, and $16 million of sales from the Lilly Pulitzer e-commerce flash sale that we did not hold in the second quarter last year.

總體而言，Tommy Bahama、Lilly Pulitzer 和 Emerging Brands 的銷售額下降了 3%，全價實體店銷售額下降了 4%，全價電子商務銷售額下降了 7%。這些下降被我們的食品和飲料業務 8% 的增長以及去年第二季度我們沒有舉辦的禮來普利策電子商務閃購銷售額 1600 萬美元所抵消。

Adjusted gross margin was 64.3% compared to 64.6% last year. This slight decline was driven by increased e-commerce flash sales at Lilly Pulitzer and a greater proportion of sales during Tommy Bahama's loyalty award card, flip side and into season clearance events partially offset by the higher gross margin of Johnny Was and reduced freight dispense.

調整後毛利率為 64.3%，去年為 64.6%。這一小幅下降的原因是禮來普利策(Lilly Pulitzer) 電子商務閃購的增加以及湯米·巴哈馬(Tommy Bahama) 忠誠獎勵卡、反面和季節清倉活動期間銷售比例的增加，部分被約翰尼·瓦斯(Johnny Was) 較高的毛利率和運費減少所抵消。

Adjusted SG&A expenses were $202 million compared to $163 million last year. This quarter included $29 million of SG&A associated with the Johnny Was business, which we did not own in the prior year period. There were also additional SG&A increases in our other businesses for employment costs, advertising costs, variable expenses and other expenses that we continue to invest in our businesses to fuel and support anticipated future growth. The result of all this yielded $73 million of adjusted operating income or a 17% operating margin compared to $78 million in 2022. The $73 million of operating income included $7 million of operating income for Johnny Was. The decrease in operating income reflects our planned SG&A deleveraging and the $2 million impact of lower royalty income from our licensing partners, notably in the furniture and home categories, which saw a surge during the pandemic and subsequently covered period.

調整後的銷售、管理及行政費用為 2.02 億美元，而去年為 1.63 億美元。本季度包括與 Johnny Was 業務相關的 2,900 萬美元的銷售及管理費用，我們在上一年期間並不擁有該業務。我們其他業務的銷售成本、廣告成本、可變費用和其他費用也有所增加，我們繼續投資於我們的業務，以推動和支持預期的未來增長。所有這一切的結果是，調整後的營業收入達到 7300 萬美元，營業利潤率為 17%，而 2022 年為 7800 萬美元。這 7300 萬美元的營業收入包括 Johnny Was 的 700 萬美元營業收入。營業收入的下降反映了我們計劃的SG&A去槓桿化以及我們的許可合作夥伴的特許權使用費收入減少200萬美元的影響，特別是在家具和家居類別中，這些類別在大流行期間和隨後的涵蓋期間出現了激增。

Moving beyond operating income. We incurred more interest expense after having no debt in the second quarter last year and benefited from a lower effective tax rate due to the favorable tax impact of stock awards vesting during the quarter. With all this, we achieved $3.45 of adjusted EPS towards the top end of our guidance range.

超越營業收入。去年第二季度沒有債務後，我們產生了更多的利息費用，並且由於本季度股票獎勵歸屬的有利稅收影響，我們受益於較低的有效稅率。有了這一切，我們實現了 3.45 美元的調整後每股收益，接近我們指導範圍的上限。

I'll now move on to our balance sheet, beginning with inventory. Our inventories increased 14% or 28% year-over-year on a FIFO basis, including $18 million of Johnny Was inventory. The 14% increase in inventory is in line with our low double-digit planned sales increase for 2023. So we believe our inventory levels are appropriate to allow us to deliver on our forecast for the remainder of the year.

現在我將討論我們的資產負債表，從庫存開始。按先進先出計算，我們的庫存同比增長 14% 或 28%，其中包括價值 1800 萬美元的 Johnny Was 庫存。庫存增加 14% 與我們 2023 年計劃的低兩位數銷售增長相符。因此，我們相信我們的庫存水平適合實現今年剩餘時間的預測。

We used our cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on our balance sheet last year as well as some borrowings under our revolving credit agreement to fund our acquisition of Johnny Was. We finished the quarter with $48 million of borrowings under our revolving credit facility, after having $119 million of borrowings at the beginning of the year or $153 million of cash flow from operations in the first half of fiscal 2023 compared to $91 million in the first half last year. It allowed us to significantly reduce outstanding debt by $71 million during the first half while also funding $31 million of capital expenditures, $21 million in dividends and $19 million of share repurchases. We expect strong cash flows for the back half of the year and anticipate repaying additional debt in the fourth quarter.

去年，我們使用資產負債表上的現金、現金等價物和短期投資以及循環信貸協議下的一些借款來為收購 Johnny Was 提供資金。截至本季度末，我們的循環信貸額度下的借款為 4800 萬美元，而年初的借款為 1.19 億美元，2023 財年上半年的運營現金流為 1.53 億美元，而上半年為 9100 萬美元去年。它使我們在上半年大幅減少了 7100 萬美元的未償債務，同時還為 3100 萬美元的資本支出、2100 萬美元的股息和 1900 萬美元的股票回購提供了資金。我們預計下半年現金流強勁，並預計第四季度償還額外債務。

I'll now spend some time on our outlook for 2023.

現在我將花一些時間來展望 2023 年。

As Tom mentioned, we are moderating our full year view to reflect the impact of the Maui wildfires and a bit more caution being shown by the consumer early in the third quarter. For the full year, we now expect net sales to be between $1.57 billion and $1.6 billion, growth of 11% to 13% compared to sales of $1.41 billion in 2022. The planned increase in sales in the 53-week 2023, includes the benefit of the full year of Johnny Was as well as growth in our existing brands in the low single-digit range, driven by our direct-to-consumer businesses, while wholesale sales in our existing businesses are expected to be comparable to 2022. We still anticipate modest gross margin expansion for the full year of 2023, with much of that improvement in the first and fourth quarters. The higher sales and modestly higher gross margins are expected to be offset by increased SG&A, which is expected to grow at a rate higher than sales in each quarter of 2023.

正如湯姆提到的，我們正在調整全年預期，以反映毛伊島野火的影響以及消費者在第三季度初表現出的更加謹慎。目前，我們預計全年淨銷售額將在15.7 億美元至16 億美元之間，與2022 年銷售額14.1 億美元相比增長11% 至13%。計劃在2023 年53 週內實現銷售額增長，其中包括收益在我們的直接面向消費者業務的推動下，Johnny Was 全年的銷售額以及我們現有品牌的增長都在低個位數範圍內，而我們現有業務的批發銷售額預計將與2022 年相當。我們仍然預計 2023 年全年毛利率將小幅增長，​​其中大部分改善將出現在第一季度和第四季度。銷售額的增加和毛利率的小幅提高預計將被 SG&A 的增加所抵消，SG&A 的增長率預計將高於 2023 年每個季度的銷售額增長率。

As we continue to invest in our businesses, as Tom outlined earlier, while we don't want to back off on expense investments that help build for the future, we are redoubling our efforts to scrub the income statement and prudently trim expenses where appropriate. We also expect royalty income for the year to be lower with the second half being comparable to the prior year.

正如湯姆之前概述的那樣，隨著我們繼續投資於我們的業務，雖然我們不想放棄有助於建設未來的費用投資，但我們正在加倍努力清理損益表，並在適當的情況下審慎地削減費用。我們還預計今年的特許權使用費收入將下降，下半年與上年相當。

Considering all of these items, we expect that operating margin will decrease from 2022 levels to a percentage of between 14% and 14.5% of sales. Additionally, we anticipate higher interest expense at $5 million for the year after incurring almost $4 million of interest expense in the first half. This compares to $3 million of interest expense in the full year of 2022, when we had no debt outstanding until the third quarter. We also expect a higher effective tax rate of approximately 24% compared to 23% in 2022.

考慮到所有這些項目，我們預計營業利潤率將從 2022 年的水平下降至銷售額的 14% 至 14.5% 之間。此外，繼上半年產生近 400 萬美元的利息支出後，我們預計今年的利息支出將增加至 500 萬美元。相比之下，2022 年全年的利息支出為 300 萬美元，當時我們直到第三季度才出現未償債務。我們還預計 2022 年有效稅率將由 23% 提高至約 24%。

After considering these items, 2023 adjusted EPS is now expected to be between $10.30 and $10.60 versus adjusted EPS of $10.88 last year with the inclusion of a full year of profit from Johnny Was being offset by lower operating income in our existing businesses, the increased effective tax rate and higher interest expense. Further, we expect pressure on our second half performance as we rehabilitate our business in Maui where our brands generated nearly $30 million of sales in 2022. Of our 6 locations on the island only the Whalers Village Tommy Bahama store and restaurant and Johnny Was, store remained open, but with significantly reduced traffic. Our Lahaina Marlin Bar location was a total loss. While the reopening path and results after reopening for our 3 stores in the Whalers Village Center remains uncertain. We expect the net effect of this is a negative impact of approximately $0.10 per share on both the third and fourth quarter or $0.20 for the second half.

考慮到這些項目後，預計 2023 年調整後每股收益將在 10.30 美元至 10.60 美元之間，而去年調整後每股收益為 10.88 美元，其中包括 Johnny 的全年利潤。稅率和較高的利息支出。此外，隨著我​​們恢復在毛伊島的業務，我們預計下半年業績將面臨壓力，我們的品牌在2022 年創造了近3000 萬美元的銷售額。在我們島上的6 個地點中，只有Whalers Village Tommy Bahama 商店和餐廳以及Johnny Was 商店仍然開放，但交通量明顯減少。我們的拉海納馬林酒吧位置徹底失敗了。雖然我們位於 Whalers Village Center 的 3 家商店重新開業的路徑和重新開業後的結果仍不確定。我們預計，其淨效應是對第三季度和第四季度每股約 0.10 美元的負面影響，或對下半年每股約 0.20 美元的負面影響。

In the third quarter of 2023, we expect sales of $320 million to $335 million compared to sales of $313 million in the third quarter of 2022. In the third quarter of 2023, we expect higher sales as this year includes a full quarter of Johnny Was, after Q3 last year only included half a quarter of operations after the September 2022 acquisition, partially offset by lower expected sales in our other businesses after we generated 12% comps in the third quarter last year.

我們預計2023 年第三季度的銷售額為3.2 億至3.35 億美元，而2022 年第三季度的銷售額為3.13 億美元。我們預計2023 年第三季度的銷售額將更高，因為今年包括約翰尼·沃斯(Johnny Was) 的整個季度去年第三季度僅包括2022 年9 月收購後的半個季度的運營，部分被我們去年第三季度產生12% 的比較後其他業務的預期銷售額下降所抵消。

We also anticipate comparable gross margin to last year's third quarter and continued SG&A deleveraging. We expect this to result in third quarter adjusted EPS of between $0.90 and $1.10 compared to $1.46 in the third quarter of 2022. The lower year-over-year EPS expectation in the quarter is primarily driven by increased SG&A investments, which has a larger impact on our operating income in our smallest sales quarter of the year and by the impact of the situation in Maui.

我們還預計毛利率將與去年第三季度相當，並繼續進行銷售、管理及行政費用去槓桿化。我們預計這將導致第三季度調整後每股收益在0.90 美元至1.10 美元之間，而2022 年第三季度為1.46 美元。本季度每股收益同比預期較低主要是由於SG&A 投資增加，這產生了更大的影響我們在今年銷售最小的季度的營業收入以及毛伊島局勢的影響。

In the fourth quarter, we expect increased sales due in part to the additional week in the quarter with otherwise comparable sales year-over-year after generating 9% comps in Q4 of 2022. Modestly higher gross margins as the fourth quarter 2022 included certain inventory markdowns in the emerging brands businesses and modest SG&A deleveraging as SG&A increases at a higher rate than sales. Also, we expect interest expense in the fourth quarter to be lower than interest expense in the fourth quarter last year due to our significant reduction in debt during 2023 and a higher effective tax rate as the fourth quarter of 2022 included certain favorable items that are not expected to repeat in the fourth quarter of the current year.

我們預計第四季度的銷售額將會增加，部分原因是該季度增加了一周，在2022 年第四季度實現9% 的比較後，其他方面的銷售額同比可比。由於2022 年第四季度包括某些庫存，毛利率將適度提高新興品牌業務降價，SG&A 適度去槓桿化，因為 SG&A 增速高於銷售額增速。此外，我們預計第四季度的利息支出將低於去年第四季度的利息支出，因為我們在2023 年期間債務大幅減少，並且有效稅率較高，因為2022 年第四季度包括了某些未納入的有利項目。預計今年第四季度將重演。

Capital expenditures in 2023 are expected to be approximately $90 million compared to $47 million in 2022. As we mentioned last quarter, the planned CapEx increases include spend associated with brick-and-mortar locations, including build-out associated with approximately 35 locations across all brands, including 3 Marlin Bars and about 10 new Johnny Was locations. A number of these are relocations and remodels, which along with a few store closures, should result in a net increase of full-price stores of about 25 by the end of the year with approximately 9 net new locations in both the third and fourth quarters. The spend associated with these brick-and-mortar locations represent about 1/2 of the planned capital expenditure amounts for 2023. Additionally, we will also continue with our investments in our various technology systems initiatives.

2023 年的資本支出預計約為9000 萬美元，而2022 年為4700 萬美元。正如我們上季度提到的，計劃的資本支出增加包括與實體店相關的支出，包括與全球約35 個地點相關的擴建。品牌，包括 3 個 Marlin Bars 和大約 10 個新的 Johnny Was 分店。其中許多是搬遷和改造，再加上一些商店的關閉，預計到今年年底，全價商店將淨增加約 25 家，第三季度和第四季度將淨增加約 9 家新店。與這些實體店相關的支出約佔 2023 年計劃資本支出金額的 1/2。此外，我們還將繼續對各種技術系統計劃進行投資。

Finally, we anticipate initial spend associated with a multiyear project across our fulfillment network in the Southeastern U.S. to enhance direct-to-consumer throughput capabilities for our brands. We continue to have a very positive outlook on our cash and liquidity position as well. After generating cash flow from operations of $126 million in 2022, which included a working capital increase of $85 million, we expect to increase our cash flow from operations significantly to a level in excess of $200 million in 2023. This level of positive cash flow from operations provides ample cash flow to fund our planned 2023 capital expenditures, payment of dividends at the current rate, $20 million of recently completed share repurchases and the continued reduction of our outstanding debt during the year. Although SG&A investments will put pressure on 2023 margins, these actions set the table well for mid- to upper single-digit topline growth and long-term operating margin target at or above 15%.

最後，我們預計與美國東南部履行網絡的一個多年期項目相關的初始支出，以增強我們品牌的直接面向消費者的吞吐量能力。我們對現金和流動性狀況也繼續抱有非常積極的前景。 2022 年運營現金流達到 1.26 億美元，其中營運資本增加 8500 萬美元，我們預計到 2023 年運營現金流將大幅增加至超過 2 億美元的水平。這一水平的正現金流來自運營提供了充足的現金流，為我們計劃的2023 年資本支出、按當前利率支付股息、最近完成的2000 萬美元股票回購以及年內繼續減少未償債務提供資金。儘管 SG&A 投資將對 2023 年的利潤率構成壓力，但這些行動為中上個位數的營收增長和 15% 或以上的長期運營利潤率目標奠定了良好基礎。

Thank you for your time today. And now we will turn the call over for questions. Doug?

感謝您今天抽出時間。現在我們將轉交電話詢問問題。道格？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Edward Yruma 和 Piper Sandler 的線路。

Our thoughts are for all of your colleagues in Maui. I guess a couple of quick ones for me. First, you guys have added quite a few new customers to the Tommy Bahama customer file really over the past couple of years. As you think about kind of retaining some of those customers, I guess, kind of can you talk a little bit about trends that you've seen and maybe tie that back to some of the comments around the promotional environment?

我們關心毛伊島的所有同事。我想對我來說有幾個快速的。首先，在過去的幾年裡，你們確實在 Tommy Bahama 的客戶檔案中添加了相當多的新客戶。當您考慮留住其中一些客戶時，我想，您能否談談您所看到的趨勢，並可能將其與促銷環境周圍的一些評論聯繫起來？

And then as a follow-up, just maybe any insight on the organic growth rate of Johnny Was and how the business is performing would be appreciated.

然後作為後續行動，也許任何有關 Johnny Was 的有機增長率以及業務表現的見解都會受到讚賞。

Okay. Thank you, Ed, and thanks for your comments regarding Maui. We know that you know what a special place that is, and it is a tough situation for sure. So we appreciate the thoughts.

好的。謝謝您，艾德，也感謝您對毛伊島的評論。我們知道您知道那是一個多麼特別的地方，而且這肯定是一個艱難的情況。所以我們很欣賞這些想法。

On the customers at Tommy Bahama, I would say what we're seeing there is really what we're seeing fundamentally across the brands. And I think this is consistent with what's going on in the marketplace is that traffic remains good. Interest in the brand is good. Our customer count is growing. Our new customer add rate is growing. The issue is really on conversion, and we would attribute that, as we said during the comments, to a lower -- or to a more cautious consumer that I believe part of it is being worried about the -- about where the economy is going and the actions of the Fed and interest rates and all that.

關於 Tommy Bahama 的客戶，我想說的是，我們在那裡看到的實際上是我們在各個品牌中看到的基本情況。我認為這與市場上正在發生的情況是一致的，即流量仍然良好。對品牌的興趣是好的。我們的客戶數量正在增長。我們的新客戶增加率正在增長。問題實際上在於轉換，正如我們在評論中所說，我們將其歸因於較低的消費者，或者說是更加謹慎的消費者，我認為其中一部分是擔心經濟的走向。以及美聯儲的行動和利率等等。

And then I do think the other factor that's making customers be more selective in the buying is the amount of promotional activity in the marketplace. That does seem to be abating a bit through the spring and the early part of the summer. It was at very elevated levels. And that part does seem to be correcting a bit, but I think there's some overhang from the economy that's weighing on the consumer a bit.

我確實認為使客戶在購買時更具選擇性的另一個因素是市場上促銷活動的數量。在春季和夏初，這種情況似乎確實有所減弱。它處於非常高的水平。這部分似乎確實有所糾正，但我認為經濟中存在一些懸而未決的問題，對消費者造成了一些壓力。

And then in terms of Johnny Was, I would say that there is the same thing. They're experiencing some organic growth challenges themselves. They're not any different than what we're seeing in the other brands. And it's really the same set of drivers at work there.

然後就約翰尼·瓦斯而言，我會說也有同樣的事情。他們自己正在經歷一些有機增長的挑戰。它們與我們在其他品牌中看到的沒有任何不同。那裡實際上是同一組司機在工作。

Yes. And they, remember, they have a very heavy California business. In California it was really difficult both the first quarter and part of the second quarter for sure. So that's been a particular challenge to Johnny Was.

是的。請記住，他們在加州的業務非常繁重。在加州，第一季度和第二季度的部分時間確實很困難。所以這對約翰尼·瓦斯來說是一個特殊的挑戰。

But we remain super excited about having them be part of our portfolio. They did have -- they delivered $7.2 million I think it was of operating profit which translates to $0.34 a share for the quarter. I think they were at a 14.2% operating margin, which is lower than where we think they can and will be. We're very confident of that. But it's still, it's a respectable operating margins.

但我們仍然對它們成為我們產品組合的一部分感到非常興奮。他們確實交付了 720 萬美元，我認為這是營業利潤，相當於本季度每股 0.34 美元。我認為他們的營業利潤率為 14.2%，低於我們認為他們能夠達到和將會達到的水平。我們對此非常有信心。但它仍然是一個可觀的營業利潤率。

And the focus this year, Ed, as you know in Johnny Was has been very much about onboarding them onto our platform, setting them up the way that we like to run our brands, which is not 180 degrees different than the way they were running under private equity ownership, but it is a little bit. So we view this as the baseline year. We feel very strongly and confidently that we can grow both topline and expand operating margin in Johnny Was going forward.

Ed，今年的重點是讓他們進入我們的平台，讓他們按照我們喜歡的方式運營我們的品牌，這與他們的運營方式沒有 180 度的不同在私募股權之下，不過是一點點。因此，我們將這一年視為基準年。我們非常強烈和自信地認為，我們可以在約翰尼瓦斯的未來實現收入增長和營業利潤率的擴大。

And one of those activities, as we outlined on the call that we've been working on this year is bringing among the Lilly Pulitzer sort of back end, if you will, for e-commerce. Johnny Was, has a nice e-commerce business. And when you land on the landing page, it's a beautiful website, but the shopability of it is just not great. And we're convinced that that's causing us to leave money on the table, which when we go live on the new Lilly website, we think will be a big enhancement to the business. And still very excited about Johnny Was and what it can contribute this year and going forward.

正如我們在今年的電話會議上概述的那樣，其中一項活動是為電子商務引入禮來·普利策（Lilly Pulitzer）後端（如果你願意的話）。約翰尼·瓦斯（Johnny Was）擁有不錯的電子商務業務。當你登陸登陸頁面時，這是一個漂亮的網站，但它的可購買性並不好。我們相信，這使我們能夠賺到錢，當我們在新的禮來網站上上線時，我們認為這將是對業務的重大改進。對於 Johnny Was 以及它今年和未來可以做出的貢獻仍然非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Noah Zatzkin 與 KeyBanc 的對話。

I guess first, just hoping you could provide any color on kind of the monthly cadence of sales moving through the quarter and then the exit rate leaving the second quarter. And then secondly, just wondering how you're feeling about the inventory position. And then any color on planned adjustments to the promotional calendar through the balance of the year would be helpful.

我想首先，只是希望您能提供有關本季度每月銷售節奏以及第二季度退出率的任何信息。其次，只是想知道您對庫存狀況的感受如何。然後，在今年剩餘時間內對促銷日曆進行計劃調整的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Okay. Thank you, Noah. Thanks for being on the call today.

好的。謝謝你，諾亞。感謝您今天接聽電話。

So through the second quarter, June was a what I would call a wobbly month. It got a little better later in the month, and sort of a wobbly month, but July actually ended up being a good month that was pretty strong. And then as we commented in the prepared remarks, early August has been a bit soft. It's not like the bottom's dropping out or anything like that. But it has been soft as we saw during some of the first quarter months as well. And the sum of all these things has convinced us as we said on the call that the consumer is in a more cautious shopping mindset at this point. And accordingly, we have moderated our guidance a little bit for the rest of the year.

因此，在第二季度，六月是我所說的不穩定的月份。本月晚些時候情況有所好轉，雖然是一個不穩定的月份，但 7 月實際上最終成為了一個相當強勁的好月份。然後，正如我們在準備好的發言中評論的那樣，八月初有點疲軟。這並不像底部掉下來或類似的事情。但正如我們在第一季度的某些月份所看到的那樣，它也一直疲軟。正如我們在電話中所說，所有這些事情的總和使我們相信，消費者目前處於更加謹慎的購物心態。因此，我們對今年剩餘時間的指導略有調整。

In terms of inventory, I'm going to let Scott comment on that in more detail, but we feel great about where inventory is. We think we're in a good spot.

在庫存方面，我將讓斯科特更詳細地評論這一點，但我們對庫存的情況感覺很好。我們認為我們處於一個好的位置。

Yes. We do. We're up 14% on a FIFO basis on inventory year-over-year, but we -- with addition of Johnny Was, with the sales growth we have, and also last year, we were building inventory still trying to kind of get inventory back to appropriate levels. It was really Q3 and Q4 before we really felt we got inventory back to where it needed to be. So I think by end of the year, we should be much closer to flat and maybe even a little down year-over-year. So we feel so good about where we are there.

是的。我們的確是。按先進先出原則，我們的庫存同比增長了14%，但是隨著約翰尼·瓦斯(Johnny Was) 的加入，我們的銷售額也有所增長，而且去年我們仍在建立庫存，試圖獲得更多的庫存。庫存回到適當水平。直到第三季度和第四季度，我們才真正感覺到庫存回到了需要的水平。因此，我認為到今年年底，我們的業績應該會更接近持平，甚至可能會同比略有下降。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。

And then in terms of planned changes to the promotional environment, I would say that in Lilly Pulitzer in particular as we've done all year, it's not really that we're doing more promotions, we're just mixing them up a bit. As you saw with the -- we had a couple of events this year that we didn't have last year, but we've also eliminated some. In Tommy Bahama, I think it will be really very, very similar to what we did last year.

然後，就促銷環境的計劃改變而言，我想說，特別是在禮來·普利策，正如我們全年所做的那樣，我們並不是真的在做更多的促銷活動，我們只是將它們混合了一點。正如您所看到的，今年我們舉辦了一些去年沒有舉辦的活動，但我們也取消了一些活動。在湯米·巴哈馬，我認為這將與我們去年所做的非常非常相似。

Our next question comes from the line of Mauricio Serna with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Mauricio Serna。

Great. Just wanted maybe to get a little bit more detail about what caused the company to lower the sales outlook. I know like previously, you talked about this in the earnings call -- in the previous earnings call that we have sensed more caution from consumers. Just trying to understand like if this -- and considering that the sales and EPS came within your expectations, if this was something that really happened both quarter or is this just like making more conservatism because there's still a lot of uncertainty. And then maybe if you could elaborate more about like your -- so far like big picture, lessons learned from Johnny Was and how you see the growth from the brand going forward?

偉大的。只是想了解更多有關導致該公司降低銷售前景的原因的細節。我知道，就像之前一樣，您在財報電話會議上談到了這一點——在之前的財報電話會議上，我們感覺到消費者更加謹慎。只是想了解一下是否會出現這種情況，並考慮到銷售額和每股收益是否在您的預期之內，這是否確實發生在兩個季度，或者這是否就像變得更加保守，因為仍然存在很多不確定性。然後，也許您可​​以詳細說明一下到目前為止的大局，從約翰尼·瓦斯身上學到的經驗教訓，以及您如何看待該品牌未來的增長？

Okay. So I think -- and thank you for the question, Mauricio, and thank you for being all on. But on the guidance, I think we covered that reasonably thoroughly. But again, I think the issue is just a realization and a belief on our part that the consumer is, in fact, a bit more cautious. And early in the year, I'm not sure we really saw that at all. As the year has progressed and especially as we got into August, I think we just have a pretty strong evidence. It's hard to know exactly what's going on in the consumers' mind, but they're just being a little bit more careful about when they spend. Again, interest in the brand remains very high. Our traffic looks really good. When they do spend as reflected in our average order values and our average annual spend, actually, you're spending the same or even a little bit more than they did last year, but the conversion rate is lower and more of it's happening during promotional time periods.

好的。所以我想——謝謝你提出這個問題，毛里西奧，也謝謝你的全力以赴。但在指導方面，我認為我們相當徹底地涵蓋了這一點。但同樣，我認為這個問題只是我們的認識和信念，即消費者實際上更加謹慎。今年年初，我不確定我們是否真的看到了這一點。隨著這一年的進展，特別是進入八月，我認為我們已經有了相當有力的證據。很難確切地知道消費者心裡在想什麼，但他們只是在消費時更加小心了。同樣，人們對該品牌的興趣仍然很高。我們的交通看起來非常好。當他們確實按照我們的平均訂單價值和平均年度支出反映出來時，實際上，您的支出與去年相同，甚至比他們去年多一點，但轉化率較低，而且更多發生在促銷期間時間段。

And when you look at all that together, that tells us that you have a consumer that's just being a little more careful about how they're spending their discretionary dollars. But we feel very good about the health of our brands and our position in the marketplace. Our cash flow as we outlined, Mauricio, is just outstanding. It's going to be fantastic for the year, over $200 million, and we're investing that money. We've kind of done it all in the last 12 months; acquisition, stock repurchases, dividends, CapEx, I mean, we're kind of hitting -- checking all the boxes, if you will.

當你把所有這些放在一起看時，你就會發現，你的消費者只是在如何花費可自由支配的資金方面更加謹慎。但我們對我們品牌的健康狀況以及我們在市場中的地位感到非常滿意。 Mauricio，正如我們所概述的，我們的現金流非常出色。今年將是非常棒的，超過 2 億美元，我們正在投資這筆錢。我們在過去 12 個月內完成了這一切；收購、股票回購、股息、資本支出，我的意思是，我們正在努力——如果你願意的話，勾選所有的框。

And then lessons learned from Johnny Was, I think every acquisition we do. As you know, Mauricio, I believe, all 6 of the brands that we have in our company, every bit of our company is something that we acquired in the last 20 years, and I think we get better and better with each acquisition and how we do it. And an example of that, I would point to and Johnny Was is moving -- I know it made from the outside, not feel super quick, but it was actually pretty quickly to go ahead and get them on a much better website, which we'll have done hopefully quite soon, but certainly this year. So we always learn little things.

然後從約翰尼·瓦斯身上吸取了教訓，我認為我們所做的每一次收購都是如此。正如你所知，Mauricio，我相信我們公司擁有的所有 6 個品牌，我們公司的每一點都是我們在過去 20 年中收購的，我認為每次收購我們都會變得越來越好，以及如何我們做到了。舉個例子，我想舉個例子，約翰尼正在搬家——我知道它是從外面做的，感覺不是很快，但實際上很快就可以繼續讓他們進入一個更好的網站，我們希望很快就能完成，但今年肯定會完成。所以我們總是學到一些小東西。

And one of the things is to move as quickly as you can. And I think we're doing that in Johnny Was and as I mentioned earlier, I believe very strongly that this is a brand that continues to grow and expand the operating margin as we move forward. And it's already -- it's already contributing. It has added $0.34 to EPS in this quarter, which we're quite happy to happen.

其中之一就是盡可能快地行動。我認為我們正在約翰尼·瓦斯（Johnny Was）身上做到這一點，正如我之前提到的，我非常堅信，隨著我們的前進，這個品牌將繼續增長並擴大營業利潤。它已經——它已經做出了貢獻。本季度 EPS 增加了 0.34 美元，我們對此感到非常高興。

One other thing, Mauricio, on the topline, both top and bottom line is the Maui situation that we talked about. So it's $3 million to $4 million, both in the third quarter and topline and in the fourth quarter on topline and our projections that we've reduced. We've got 6 stores, a $30 million business on now and the 2 that are open are operating at less than half of the sales volume right now. The Lahaina Marlin Bar is gone. It's -- it is gone. And the 3 Whalers Village stores are not open right now. We are optimistic that we will be able to get them open, but I don't think there's going to be a lot of tours. It's very, very close to Lahaina, so we really think it's going to take quite a while for the tourism back -- to get back in that area. So that is also a contributor to both our top and bottom line guidance changes.

毛里西奧，另一件事是我們談到的毛伊島局勢。因此，第三季度和第四季度的營收均為 300 萬至 400 萬美元，我們已經降低了預測。我們有 6 家商店，目前營業額為 3000 萬美元，其中 2 家仍在營業，目前的銷售額還不到一半。拉海納馬林魚酒吧已經消失了。它——它消失了。 Whalers Village 的 3 家商店目前尚未營業。我們對能夠開放它們感到樂觀，但我認為不會有很多旅遊團。它離拉海納非常非常近，所以我們真的認為旅遊業需要相當長的時間才能恢復——回到那個地區。因此，這也是我們的頂線和底線指導變化的一個貢獻者。

Very helpful, and congratulations on those results.

非常有幫助，祝賀這些結果。

Thank you, Mauricio.

謝謝你，毛里西奧。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

It's Tracy Kogan for Paul. I was wondering if you guys could just elaborate on the current trends a little bit more. I was wondering if -- is it one brand more than the other, where you're seeing a caution or maybe one channel versus another? Just any differences you're seeing there? And then I have a follow-up.

這是保羅的特雷西·科根。我想知道你們是否可以詳細說明一下當前的趨勢。我想知道是否——是一個品牌比另一個品牌多，您在其中看到了警告，或者可能是一個渠道與另一個渠道？您在那裡看到任何差異嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

So the trend, Tracy, it's really the 3 bigger brands are all having a roughly similar experience, and it's a bit of a mix of channels. And again, it's really the conversion issue that we're -- that's holding us back a bit. And then the 3 smaller brands actually continue to grow nicely. But when you're as small as they are still at this point, there's a bit of room to run always. So that's kind of what we're seeing.

所以，Tracy，這個趨勢實際上是 3 個較大的品牌都有大致相似的體驗，而且有點混合渠道。再說一次，這確實是我們面臨的轉換問題——這讓我們有點阻礙。然後三個較小的品牌實際上繼續良好增長。但當你還像他們一樣小時，總是有一點空間可以運行。這就是我們所看到的。

Got it. And then I was wondering if you could quantify some of the moving pieces within gross margin this quarter and then kind of where those are headed in the back half. I think you mentioned freight helping. I was wondering if you could maybe quantify that? And maybe talk about when that benefit runs out? Does it still go into next year, that freight benefit? Any color you have on that would be helpful.

知道了。然後我想知道您是否可以量化本季度毛利率內的一些變化部分，然後確定這些部分在後半段的走向。我想你提到了貨運幫助。我想知道你是否可以量化這一點？也許可以談談這種福利甚麼時候用完？明年還會有運費優惠嗎？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. The freight for the most part is close to flushing itself through the system. The higher freight from last year was mainly a first half item and mainly our first quarter, less in the second quarter, and fairly minimal in Q3 and Q4. So that's much less of an impact than it had been in previous quarters. We got -- been -- having Johnny Was helps us there. And then we had some inventory write-downs in Q4 last year that we -- in our emerging brands group that we don't anticipate anniversarying. So our fourth quarter -- that will help our fourth quarter gross margin. So I think those are the big ones.

是的。大部分運費幾乎通過系統自行沖走。去年較高的運費主要是上半年的商品，主要是我們的第一季度，第二季度有所減少，第三季度和第四季度相當少。因此，這比前幾個季度的影響要小得多。約翰尼·沃斯（Johnny Was）在這方面幫助了我們。去年第四季度，我們的新興品牌集團進行了一些庫存減記，我們預計不會周年紀念。所以我們的第四季度——這將有助於我們第四季度的毛利率。所以我認為這些都是大問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsa Advisory Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsa Advisory Group 的 Dana Telsey。

As you think about what's happening with the current consumer -- with the consumer right now, and obviously, your inventory levels also. How are you planning full price versus markdown business going forward? And is there anything on the category side by brand that has done better or not as better to give you any indication of consumer pulse and what they are focused on?

當你思考當前消費者正在發生的事情時——現在的消費者，顯然還有你的庫存水平。您如何計劃未來的全價業務與降價業務？按品牌劃分的品類中是否有哪些做得更好或沒有更好的東西可以讓您了解消費者的脈搏及其關注點？

Yes. Great questions, as always, Dana, and thanks for being on the call.

是的。一如既往的好問題，達納，感謝您接聽電話。

So in terms of full price for versus markdown. Our plan, obviously, is to do as much full-price business as we possibly can. And as we outlined in our response to Noah earlier in Lilly Pulitzer, we're not really going to do more promotional events, but we're going to mix them up. So the cadence of those and the look of those will be a little bit different than what they were last year. And then in Tommy Bahama, it's really going to be very similar to what you saw last year and really in the past. And the issue will be whether the consumer shops at their normal levels during full price or whether they hold back a little bit more and save their dollars for the event.

因此，就全價與降價而言。顯然，我們的計劃是盡可能多地開展全價業務。正如我們在禮來普利策早些時候對諾亞的回應中概述的那樣，我們實際上不會做更多的促銷活動，但我們會將它們混合在一起。因此，這些的節奏和外觀將與去年有所不同。然後在湯米·巴哈馬，它真的會與你去年和過去看到的非常相似。問題在於消費者是否按正常水平全價購物，或者他們是否會多花一點錢來參加活動。

And that's certainly -- we saw a bit of that in the second quarter where people were holding off and spending during the events, which in more -- when the consumer is feeling a little more robust, they tend to not wait, they just want it as soon as it hits the floor. And that's kind of what we factored into our guidance as best as we can estimate all that. That's what we factored into our guidance for the balance of the year.

當然，我們在第二季度看到了一些情況，人們在活動期間推遲消費，更重要的是，當消費者感覺更加強勁時，他們往往不會等待，他們只是想要它一落地。這就是我們盡可能估計的，將其納入我們的指導中的因素。這就是我們在今年剩餘時間的指導中考慮的因素。

And then the category question is a good one because we've definitely seen a return this year to I wouldn't call it dressy styles, but dressier where during the pandemic, it went super casual and cozy and then that actually continued for a while, and we're more back to sort of what I would call normal. So ladies wearing pretty or more structured dresses and gentlemen wearing more long sleeve wovens and that kind of thing.

然後類別問題是一個很好的問題，因為我們今年確實看到了一種回歸，我不會稱之為正裝風格，而是更正裝，在大流行期間，它變得超級休閒和舒適，然後這種情況實際上持續了一段時間，我們又回到了我所說的正常狀態。因此，女士們穿著漂亮或更結構化的衣服，而男士們則穿著更多的長袖編織物之類的衣服。

And in the first half, if you think about it, when we were buying product, at the time we had to place those that hit the floor in the first half. That was when the supply chain was an absolute disaster, and we were probably buying typically 6 weeks earlier than we normally would, which meant we were buying in much more of an information vacuum, and as a result of that, I think it's a natural sort of instant that because we didn't know, we got much more basic and core in our assortment. And to be honest, I think that probably hurt us a little bit in the first half.

在上半場，如果你想一想，當我們購買產品時，我們必須將那些在上半場落地的產品。那時供應鏈絕對是一場災難，我們通常比平時提前 6 週購買，這意味著我們在更多的信息真空中購買，因此，我認為這是自然而然的。突然之間，因為我們不知道，我們的品種變得更加基本和核心。老實說，我認為這可能在上半場對我們造成了一些傷害。

By the time we get to the second half, what's on the floor now and particularly for fourth quarter, we're much more where we're buying in our normal cycle. The assortments have a lot more newness in them than we did in the first half of the year. And I think we've got -- we're better aligned with what the consumer actually wants now, which is those dressy or styles, not that there's not still plenty of room for core and basic, but just the proportion was probably a little bit out of whack during the first half. And I think we're much better safe for the second half.

當我們進入下半年時，現在的情況，特別是第四季度，我們更多地在正常週期中購買。與今年上半年相比，這些品種有更多的新意。我認為我們已經更好地符合消費者現在真正想要的東西，即那些考究或風格，並不是說核心和基本的空間仍然不夠，只是比例可能有點小上半場有點不正常。我認為下半場我們會更加安全。

There are no further questions. I'd like to hand it back to Mr. Chubb for closing remarks.

沒有其他問題了。我想把它交還給查布先生做總結髮言。

Okay. Thank you, Doug, and thanks to all of you for your interest in our company. We look forward to talking to you again in December and I hope that all of you are well until then.

好的。謝謝你，道格，也感謝大家對我們公司的興趣。我們期待 12 月再次與您交談，希望在此之前你們一切順利。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。