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Operator
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Oxford Industries Inc. third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Brian Smith of our three industries. You may begin.
歡迎參加牛津工業公司 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式演講後將舉行問答環節。如果有人在會議期間需要接線員協助,請按下電話鍵盤上的星號零。請注意,本次會議正在錄製中。現在我將會議交給主持人,我們三個行業的布萊恩史密斯。你可以開始了。
Brian Smith - IR
Brian Smith - IR
Thank you and good afternoon. And before we began, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10 K. We undertake no duty to update any forward looking statements during this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures and you can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at Oxford bank.com. Now I'd like to introduce today's call. Participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO.
謝謝你,下午好。在我們開始之前,我想提醒與會者,今天在問答環節中所做的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性聲明並非保證,實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中討論了可能導致實際營運結果或財務狀況出現差異的重要因素,包括表格 10 K 中包含的風險因素。我們不承擔更新的義務對於本次電話會議期間的任何前瞻性陳述,我們將討論某些非GAAP 財務指標,您可以在我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中找到非GAAP 與GAAP 財務指標的對賬,該新聞稿發佈在我們的投資者關係選項卡下。網站為 Oxford Bank.com。現在我想介紹一下今天的電話會議。參與者。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長 Tom Chubb 和財務長兼營運長 Scott Grassmyer。
Thank you for your attention. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.
感謝您的關注。現在我想把電話轉給湯姆·查布。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. I want to spend just a few minutes talking about the third quarter and then move to our expectations and plans for the fourth quarter. And finally, give you a bit of a sneak preview on our plans for 2024. We are pleased to be reporting solid results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Our results reflect low single digit sales growth inclusive of comps that were down low single digits, which come on top of a 12% positive comp in the third quarter of last year. While the consumer has clearly become more judicious in their discretionary spending. We believe our performance, especially on a two year stack basis, compares favorably to our peer group. Despite a more difficult backdrop, we delivered these results as our people have remained focused on leveraging our strong brands to deliver clear and consistent messages that inspire and resonate with customers creating strong desire for our products and services, a great example of this during the third quarter includes the opening of the Tommy Bahama Mirra mountain resort in Indian Wells, California. This Jewel Box resort in the Coachella Valley leverages the credibility that Tommy Bahama has built over nearly 30 years in the hospitality space through our very popular restaurants and bars as well as the overall strength of Tommy Bahama as one of the America's premier lifestyle brands. The resort will have a meaningful impact on reinforcing and even strengthening the lifestyle positioning of the Tommy Bahama brand, ultimately helping us reach new customers retain existing ones and increase the engagement of our customers, while at the same time generating meaningful, but modest royalty income over time.
下午好,感謝您加入我們。我想花幾分鐘討論第三季度,然後談談我們對第四季度的預期和計劃。最後,讓您先睹為快一下我們的 2024 年計劃。我們很高興報告 2023 財年第三季度的穩健業績。我們的業績反映了低個位數的銷售增長,其中包括低個位數下降的比較,這是在去年第三季12% 的正值基礎上實現的。而消費者在可自由支配的支出上顯然變得更明智。我們相信我們的表現,尤其是在兩年堆疊的基礎上,與我們的同行相比毫不遜色。儘管面臨更困難的背景,我們還是取得了這些成果,因為我們的員工仍然專注於利用我們強大的品牌來傳遞清晰一致的訊息,激發客戶並產生共鳴,從而對我們的產品和服務產生強烈的渴望,這是第三季度的一個很好的例子該季度包括位於加利福尼亞州印第安維爾斯的湯米·巴哈馬·米拉 (Tommy Bahama Mirra) 山區度假村的開業。這家位於科切拉山谷的 Jewel Box 度假村充分利用了 Tommy Bahama 近 30 年來透過我們廣受歡迎的餐廳和酒吧在酒店領域建立的信譽以及 Tommy Bahama 作為美國首屈一指的生活方式品牌之一的整體實力。度假村將對加強甚至加強Tommy Bahama 品牌的生活方式定位產生有意義的影響,最終幫助我們吸引新客戶、留住現有客戶並提高客戶的參與度,同時產生有意義但適度的特許權使用費收入隨著時間的推移。
Another great example of leveraging the strength of our brands to drive business results in the third quarter was the launch of the gorgeous new Johnny was website. You will recall that the new website layers, the exquisite Johnny was imagery brand messaging and product on the best-in-class Lilly Pulitzer e-commerce technology that we have implemented over the last several years. The new website, combined with the change in digital marketing agencies has us very excited about our ability to grow our Johnny was web business going forward. As a result of these and many other activities by our brands, our traffic and full-price selling remained healthy during the quarter, and we were actually able to expand adjusted gross margins. In addition, our active customer count and our new customer ad rate both increased mid single digits versus last year, while average annual spend has remained roughly flat. All of these metrics are extraordinarily positive indicators of the strength of our brands.
利用我們的品牌優勢推動第三季業務成果的另一個很好的例子是推出華麗的新 Johnny was 網站。您會記得新的網站層、精緻的約翰尼是圖像品牌訊息和產品,採用我們在過去幾年實施的一流的禮來普立茲電子商務技術。新網站以及數位行銷機構的變化讓我們對未來發展 Johnny was 網路業務的能力感到非常興奮。由於我們品牌的這些活動和許多其他活動,我們的流量和全價銷售在本季度保持健康,並且我們實際上能夠擴大調整後的毛利率。此外,與去年相比,我們的活躍客戶數量和新客戶廣告費率均出現中等個位數成長,而平均年度支出基本上持平。所有這些指標都是我們品牌實力的非常積極的指標。
Finally, Scott will provide more details in a minute, but I would be remiss if I did not call out the strength of our cash flow from operations, which was 169 million on a year-to-date basis, our balance sheet and the fact that we were able to actually reduce inventory on a year-over-year basis during the quarter.
最後,斯科特將在一分鐘內提供更多細節,但如果我沒有指出我們的營運現金流量(年初至今為 1.69 億美元)、我們的資產負債表以及事實,那就是我的失職。我們能夠在本季實際年減庫存。
Moving on to the fourth quarter, we are excited about our plans and our opportunities in a market that remains somewhat uneven. Our DCDTC. business got off to a bit of a sluggish start in early November and then posted strong results during the very important Thanksgiving weekend. As you are aware, this year's calendar provides the longest possible selling period between Thanksgiving and Christmas at 32 days, not surprisingly business since the middle of the week following Thanksgiving and has been choppy history indicates that when we have a calendar like this year's, we cannot expect a dramatic ramp-up in sales during the 10 to 12 days before Christmas. We expect to see that ramp up this year, and we are excited about the plans we have in each of our brands to capitalize on that opportunity.
進入第四季度,我們對我們的計劃和在仍然有些不平衡的市場中的機會感到興奮。我們的DCDTC。 11 月初,公司業務開局有些低迷,但在非常重要的感恩節週末取得了強勁的業績。如你所知,今年的日曆提供了感恩節和聖誕節之間最長的銷售期,為32 天,毫不奇怪,自感恩節後一周中間開始營業,並且一直波動的歷史表明,當我們有像今年這樣的日曆時,我們聖誕節前 10 到 12 天的銷售量不可能大幅成長。我們預計今年這一數字將有所增加,我們對每個品牌利用這一機會的計劃感到興奮。
With respect to our wholesale business, we do expect to experience some headwinds during the fourth quarter. Our brands and products continue to perform very well at our key wholesale Pub Partners. However, due to the uncertain consumer environment, wholesale accounts have become more cautious in their purchasing for spring of 2024. And therefore, spring bookings are down as the result of this harvest and not because of performance. Given that many of our early spring orders typically shipped during the last month of each fiscal year, we expect some softness in our fourth quarter wholesale business. Scott will provide more detail in a minute, but as a result of the wholesale situation and the uneven direct to consumer market in the interest of caution, we are moderating our guidance for the fourth quarter.
就我們的批發業務而言,我們確實預計第四季度會遇到一些阻力。我們的品牌和產品在我們的主要批發酒吧合作夥伴中繼續表現出色。然而,由於消費環境的不確定性,批發客戶對2024年春季的採購變得更加謹慎。因此,春季預訂量的下降是由於收穫的結果,而不是因為業績。鑑於我們的許多早春訂單通常在每個財政年度的最後一個月發貨,我們預計第四季度的批發業務會出現一些疲軟。斯科特將在一分鐘內提供更多細節,但由於批發情況和直接面向消費者市場的不平衡,出於謹慎考慮,我們正在調整第四季度的指導。
Moving beyond this year, we are extremely excited about our developing plans for 2024 and beyond. While it is too early for us to give our initial forecast for 2024. We would like to give you a sneak peek at some of our key plans. We believe that the most likely scenario for the economy is a soft landing. And in the absence of a broad macro economic setback, we believe that we can continue to leverage our incredible brands to inspire customers and generate the demand for our brands and services that will drive growth in our business. Year to date, we have increased our store count by a net 17 stores through the first three quarters and expect another five openings during the fourth quarter. Most of the openings happened in the back half of the year. And given the timing and typical post-opening ramp-up period, we will not see the full benefit of these stores until fiscal 2024. On top of this, we will also realize the full benefit from the upgrades that we have made to the Tony was e-commerce business, which were completed in the third quarter of this year in 2024. In addition to annualizing the impact of many of our 2023 activities. We also plan to continue to fuel future growth, which with projects that we have planned for 2024. First, we plan to increase our store count by more than 25 net new stores with Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer returning to more of a pre pandemic store opening cadence. We are particularly excited about the six Marlin Bars slated for the next 12 months, which includes our Winter Park, Florida location scheduled to open in January. We also anticipate meaningful openings for both. Johnny was and our emerging brands where we have opportunities for continued retail growth. The preopening activities associated with these stores, particularly the five Borland's, will put some pressure on 2020 for operating margins, but having these stores in place will fuel our growth trajectory in 2025 and beyond. We are also excited about the pins and potential to utilize our emerging brands group platform as a vehicle for growth. The platform has evolved nicely, and we have proven its ability to support smaller brands in their growth and development. The Beaufort Bonnet Company is a great example. Since we acquired TBBC. in 2017, it has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 23%. Another great example is the stock had an iconic brand with an iconic product in over 150 years of history. This spring goods, all but out of business when we bought it in Synta, adding it to our platform. We relaunched to rebuild the brand into a rapidly growing profitable business with sales in excess of $10 million and meaningful potential. We are constantly on the lookout for more opportunities like the timely. We are enhancing our long-term distribution capabilities by building an expanded modern automated distribution center near our existing facility in Lions, Georgia. The target is to complete this project during 2025. Once complete, it will increase our annual shipping capacity from 7 to 7 million units, whatever 20 million units with potential to grow to 30 million units with some additional equipment investment. The project will add numerous significant benefits to the enterprise and will help continue to drive future growth.
今年過後,我們對 2024 年及以後的發展計畫感到非常興奮。雖然現在給出 2024 年的初步預測還為時過早。我們想讓您先睹為快,了解我們的一些關鍵計劃。我們認為,經濟最有可能出現的情況是軟著陸。在沒有廣泛的宏觀經濟衰退的情況下,我們相信我們可以繼續利用我們令人難以置信的品牌來激勵客戶並產生對我們的品牌和服務的需求,從而推動我們的業務成長。今年迄今為止,我們在前三個季度淨增了 17 家門市,預計第四季將再開設 5 家。大多數職缺發生在今年下半年。考慮到時機和典型的開業後提升期,我們要到 2024 財年才能看到這些商店的全部效益。除此之外,我們還將實現對 Tony 進行升級的全部效益是電子商務業務,該業務在2024年今年第三季完成。此外,我們也對2023年許多活動的影響進行了年度化。我們還計劃透過 2024 年計畫的項目繼續推動未來的成長。首先,我們計劃將門市數量淨增 25 家以上,其中 Tommy Bahama 和 Lilly Pulitzer 將更多地恢復到疫情前的門市狀態開場節奏。我們對計劃在未來 12 個月內開設的 6 家 Marlin 酒吧感到特別興奮,其中包括計劃於 1 月開業的佛羅裡達州溫特帕克分店。我們也預期兩者都會有有意義的空缺。約翰尼和我們的新興品牌為我們提供了持續零售成長的機會。與這些商店(特別是五家 Borland 商店)相關的預開業活動將為 2020 年的營業利潤率帶來一些壓力,但這些商店的到位將推動我們 2025 年及以後的成長軌跡。我們也對利用我們的新興品牌集團平台作為成長工具的優勢和潛力感到興奮。這個平台發展得很好,我們已經證明了它支持小品牌成長和發展的能力。 Beaufort Bonnet 公司就是一個很好的例子。自從我們收購了TBBC。 2017年複合成長率達23%。另一個很好的例子是,該股票擁有一個具有 150 多年歷史的標誌性品牌和標誌性產品。今年春季的商品,當我們在 Synta 購買並將其添加到我們的平台時,幾乎已經關閉了。我們重新啟動,將品牌重建為快速成長的獲利企業,銷售額超過 1000 萬美元,並具有巨大的潛力。我們一直在尋找更多像及時的機會。我們正在透過在喬治亞州獅子市的現有設施附近建造一個擴建的現代化自動化配送中心來增強我們的長期配送能力。該專案的目標是在 2025 年完成。一旦完成,我們的年出貨量將從 700 萬台增加到 700 萬台,透過一些額外的設備投資,2,000 萬台有潛力成長到 3,000 萬台。該項目將為企業帶來眾多顯著效益,並將有助於繼續推動未來的成長。
First, the cost per unit of the handling and shipping unit in this facility will continue to be highly competitive with greater automation. Secondly, it will give us the additional capacity that we need to service the concentration of stores that we have in Florida and elsewhere in the eastern part of the country, giving us the ability to optimize inventory better by replenishing stores more quickly and more frequently finally, it will allow us to serve more of our web customers in the eastern part of the country better by getting products into their hands more quickly. All of these activities in addition to that, others that we will talk about in March when we provide our initial forecast for the year promise to help fuel growth in 2024 and beyond none of what we have accomplished during 2023. Our plan for 2024 would be possible without our wonderful and dedicated team of people. And during this holiday season, we would like to express our sincere gratitude for all that they do.
首先,隨著自動化程度的提高,該設施中處理和運輸單位的單位成本將繼續具有高度競爭力。其次,它將為我們提供為佛羅裡達州和美國東部其他地方的集中商店提供服務所需的額外能力,使我們能夠通過更快、更頻繁地補充商店來更好地優化庫存。 ,這將使我們能夠更快地將產品送到他們手中,從而更好地服務該國東部地區的更多網路客戶。除此之外,我們將在3 月份提供今年的初步預測時討論的所有這些活動,將有助於推動2024 年的增長,並超越我們在2023 年期間所取得的成就。我們2024 年的計劃將是沒有我們優秀且敬業的團隊,這一切都是可能實現的。在這個節日期間,我們對他們所做的一切表示誠摯的謝意。
And now I'll turn the call over to Scott for additional comments on our results for the third quarter and forecast for the balance of the year. Scott?
現在我將把電話轉給史考特,請他對我們第三季的業績和今年剩餘時間的預測發表更多評論。史考特?
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Thank you, Tom. As Tom mentioned, we are pleased to report another solid quarter that is within our guidance range and a challenging macroeconomic environment for the consumer for operating groups executed well, going against -- up against DTC comps of 12% in the third quarter of 2022. Consolidated net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 were $327 million, which included $49 million of sales for Johnny Was as compared to $23 million in the six weeks we owned Johnny Was last year. And a slight decline on our organic basis, resulting in 4% growth above last year's third quarter net sales of $313 million.
謝謝你,湯姆。正如Tom 所提到的,我們很高興地報告另一個穩定的季度,該季度在我們的指導範圍內,而且運營集團執行良好,消費者面臨充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境,這與2022 年第三季度12 % 的 DTC 比較相反。2023 財年第三季的綜合淨銷售額為 3.27 億美元,其中包括 Johnny Was 的 4900 萬美元銷售額,而去年我們擁有 Johnny Was 的六週內銷售額為 2300 萬美元。我們的有機基礎略有下降,導致比去年第三季 3.13 億美元的淨銷售額成長 4%。
In aggregate, Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and emerging brands had decreases of 2% in full-price bricks-and-mortar, 3% in full price e-commerce, and 9% in wholesale sales. Despite a decline of 3% year-over-year, the performance of our food and beverage locations remained strong with the decreases driven by remodels and closures resulting from the mali wildfires.
總體而言,Tommy Bahama、Lilly Pulitzer 和新興品牌的全價實體店銷售額下降了 2%,全價電子商務銷售額下降了 3%,批發銷售額下降了 9%。儘管同比下降 3%,但由於馬利野火導致的改造和關閉,我們的食品和飲料門店的業績仍然強勁。
We were able to expand adjusted gross margin 60 basis points to 64% compared to 63.4% last year. Our lowering inventory balances across all operating groups over the same time period. The increase in adjusted gross margin was driven by a full quarter of higher margin sales from Johnny Was compared to a partial quarter last year, a decrease in inventory markdowns, an increase in direct-to-consumer sales in our merchant brands, and decreased freight costs. These were partially offset by decreased Lilly Pulitzer full price e-commerce sales.
與去年的 63.4% 相比,我們能夠將調整後毛利率擴大 60 個基點至 64%。我們在同一期間內降低了所有營運集團的庫存餘額。調整後毛利率的成長是由於與去年部分季度相比,Johnny Was 整個季度的銷售利潤率較高、庫存降價減少、我們的商業品牌直接面向消費者的銷售增加以及運費下降成本。這些被禮來普立茲全價電子商務銷售額的下降部分抵銷。
Adjusted SG&A expenses were $191 million compared to $171 million last year. This increase was largely driven by an incremental $17 million of SG&A associated with the Johnny Was business, which we owned for the full third quarter of '23 versus a partial third quarter in 2022. The result of all of this yielded $21 million of adjusted operating income, 47% operating margin compared to $32 million in 2022. The $21 million of operating income included $1 million of incremental operating income for Johnny was driven by a full quarter of ownership this year. The decrease in operating income reflects our planned SG&A investments in our people business, we ourselves saw modest declines in revenue from our licensing partners.
調整後的 SG&A 費用為 1.91 億美元,去年為 1.71 億美元。這一成長主要是由與Johnny Was 業務相關的SG&A 增量1700 萬美元推動的,我們在2023 年整個第三季度擁有該業務,而2022 年第三季度部分時間。所有這些的結果產生了2100 萬美元的調整後營運收入,營業利潤率為 47%,而 2022 年為 3,200 萬美元。Johnny 的 2,100 萬美元營業收入包括 100 萬美元的增量營業收入,這是由今年整個季度的所有權推動的。營業收入的下降反映了我們計劃對人員業務進行SG&A投資,我們自己也看到來自許可合作夥伴的收入略有下降。
Moving beyond operating income, we incurred more interest expense as a result of higher interest rates and higher average debt levels, but benefited from a lower effective tax rate due to certain discrete items that have a larger impact on our tax rate in the third quarter, given our lower earnings than in other fiscal quarters. With all this, we achieved $1.01 of adjusted EPS solidly within our guidance range.
除了營業收入之外,由於較高的利率和較高的平均債務水平,我們產生了更多的利息支出,但由於某些離散項目對我們第三季的稅率影響較大,因此受益於較低的有效稅率,鑑於我們的收入低於其他財政季度。有了這一切,我們實現了 1.01 美元的調整後每股收益,完全在我們的指導範圍內。
I'll now move on to our balance sheet beginning with inventory. Our inventories decreased by 4% or $9 million year-over-year on a FIFO basis, while being able to expand gross adjusted gross margins. Inventory decrease in all operating groups resulting from our continued inventory discipline.
現在我將從庫存開始討論我們的資產負債表。我們的庫存以先進先出原則計算,年減了 4%,即 900 萬美元,同時能夠擴大調整後毛利率。由於我們持續的庫存紀律,所有營運部門的庫存都減少了。
Over the last 12 months, we used our robust cash flow to significantly repay our borrowings used to fund the Johnny Was acquisition. Our borrowings increased slightly in the third quarter, which has historically been a cash use quarter, given our lower earnings compared to other fiscal quarters. We finished the quarter with $66 million of borrowings under our revolving credit facility, down from $119 million of borrowings at the beginning of the year.
在過去 12 個月中,我們利用強勁的現金流大量償還了用於收購 Johnny Was 的借款。鑑於我們的收益低於其他財政季度,我們的借款在第三季度略有增加,第三季度歷來是現金使用季度。截至本季末,我們的循環信貸額度借款額為 6,600 萬美元,低於年初的 1.19 億美元借款額。
Our $169 million of cash flow from operations in the first nine months of 2023 compared to $86 million in the first nine months last year, allowed us to reduce outstanding debt by $53 million since the beginning of fiscal 2023, while also funding $54 million of capital expenditures, $31 million of dividends, and $20 million of share repurchases. We expect strong cash flow for the rest of the year anticipate repaying additional debt in the fourth quarter.
我們2023 年前9 個月的營運現金流為1.69 億美元,而去年前9 個月為8,600 萬美元,這使我們自2023 財年開始以來未償債務減少了5,300 萬美元,同時也為5,400萬美元的資本提供了資金支出、3,100萬美元的股利和2,000萬美元的股票回購。我們預計今年剩餘時間的強勁現金流預計將在第四季度償還額外債務。
I'll now spend some time on our outlook for the remainder of 2023. As Tom mentioned, we are moderating our full year view to reflect the impact of continued hesitancy shown by consumers in the third and fourth quarters.
現在,我將花一些時間展望 2023 年剩餘時間。正如 Tom 所提到的,我們正在調整全年展望,以反映消費者在第三季和第四季表現出的持續猶豫的影響。
For the full year, we now expect net sales to be between $1.57 billion and $1.59 billion, growth of 11% to 13% compared to sales of $1.41 billion in 2022. The planned increase in sales and a 53-week 2023 includes the benefit of the full year of Johnny Was as well as growth in our existing brands in that low single digit range, driven by increases in our direct consumer businesses and relatively flat sales in our wholesale channel.
對於全年,我們目前預計淨銷售額將在15.7 億美元至15.9 億美元之間,與2022 年銷售額14.1 億美元相比增長11% 至13%。計劃的銷售額增長和2023 年53 週的成長包括以下好處:約翰尼·瓦斯全年以及我們現有品牌的成長都在較低的個位數範圍內,這是由我們的直接消費者業務的成長和批發管道的銷售相對平穩推動的。
Our updated guidance reflects decreases in comp store sales in the low single digit range, they softened wholesale outlook. We still anticipate modest gross margin expansion for the full year of 2023, including in the fourth quarter higher sales year over year and modestly higher gross margins are expected to be offset by increased SG&A, which is expected to grow at a rate higher than sales in each quarter of 2023, although at a rate in the fourth quarter, that is more similar to the third quarter than the first two quarters.
我們更新的指導反映了比較商店銷售額的下降幅度在較低的個位數範圍內,這削弱了批發前景。我們仍然預計2023 年全年毛利率將小幅擴張,包括第四季度銷售額同比增長,並且毛利率小幅上升預計將被SG&A 的增長所抵消,SG&A 的增長速度預計將高於2023 年的銷售額增長速度。2023 年的每個季度,儘管按第四季度的速度計算,但與前兩個季度相比,與第三季度更相似。
Building on our efforts in the third quarter, we will continue to scrub the income statement in prudently trimming expenses where appropriate while continuing to invest and help build for the future.
在第三季努力的基礎上,我們將繼續精簡損益表,在適當的情況下謹慎削減開支,同時繼續投資並幫助建立未來。
Finally, we expect royalty income in the fourth quarter to be comparable to the prior year. Considering all these items, we expect adjusted operating margin for the full year to be approximately 14%. Additionally, we anticipate higher interest expense of [6%] (sic, see press release, "$6 million") for the full year after incurring almost $5 million of interest expense in the first nine months of the year. This compares to $3 million of interest expense in the full year 2022 when we had no debt outstanding until the third quarter acquisition of Johnny Was we also expect a higher effective tax rate of approximately 24% compared to 23% in 2022.
最後,我們預計第四季的特許權使用費收入將與去年同期相當。考慮到所有這些項目,我們預計全年調整後營業利潤率約為 14%。此外,在今年前 9 個月產生近 500 萬美元的利息費用後,我們預計全年利息費用將增加 [6%](原文如此,請參閱新聞稿,「600 萬美元」)。相較之下,2022 年全年的利息支出為300 萬美元,當時我們在第三季收購Johnny 之前沒有未償債務,我們還預計有效稅率將更高,約為24%,而2022 年為23%。
After considering these items, 2023 adjusted EPS is now expected to be between $10.10 and $10.30 versus adjusted EPS of $10.88 last year, with the inclusion of a full year of profit from Johnny Was being offset by lower operating income in our existing businesses, increased effective tax rate, and higher interest expense.
考慮到這些項目後,預計 2023 年調整後每股收益將在 10.10 美元至 10.30 美元之間,而去年調整後每股收益為 10.88 美元,其中包括 Johnny 的全年利潤。稅率和較高的利息支出。
After generating 9% comps in Q4 of 2022, we expect increased sales in the high single digits in the fourth quarter due in part to the additional week in the quarter and our new brick-and-mortar locations, partially offset by lower comp store sales as discussed earlier, and a softened wholesale outlook. We also spent modestly higher gross margins, a higher mix of direct to consumer sales and modest SG&A deleveraging as SG&A increases at a higher rate than sales we further expect interest expense in the fourth quarter to be lower than the interest expense in the fourth quarter last year due to our significant reduction in debt during 2023 and a higher effective tax rate as the Q4 2022 included certain favorable items that are not expected to repeat in the fourth quarter of the current year.
在2022 年第四季實現9% 的競爭後,我們預計第四季度的銷售額將出現高個位數成長,部分原因是該季度增加了一周以及我們新的實體店,但部分被較低的競爭商店銷售額所抵銷如前所述,批發前景疲軟。我們還花費了小幅提高的毛利率、更高的直接面向消費者銷售的組合以及適度的SG&A去槓桿化,因為SG&A的增長率高於銷售額,我們進一步預計第四季度的利息支出將低於去年第四季的利息支出由於我們在 2023 年期間債務大幅減少,以及由於 2022 年第四季包括某些預計不會在今年第四季重複的有利項目,因此有效稅率較高。
Capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 are expected to be approximately $80 million compared to $47 million in fiscal 2022. This is lower than prior estimates due to certain CapEx for our fulfillment center project shifting from fiscal '23 to fiscal '24. As we mentioned last quarter, planned CapEx increase includes spend associated with brick and mortar locations including build-out associated with approximately 35 locations across all brands, including two new Marlin Bars and approximately 10 new Johnny was locations.
2023 財年的資本支出預計約為 8000 萬美元,而 2022 財年為 4700 萬美元。這低於先前的估計,因為我們的營運中心項目的某些資本支出從 23 財年轉向 24 財年。正如我們上季度所提到的,計劃的資本支出增加包括與實體店相關的支出,包括與所有品牌的約 35 個店面相關的擴建,包括兩個新的 Marlin Bars 和約 10 個新的 Johnny was 店。
A number of these are relocations and remodels, which along with a few store closures should result in a net increase of full-price stores of about 22 by the end of the year with approximately five net new locations in the fourth quarter. The spend associated with these brick and mortar locations represent about one half of the planned capital expenditure amounts for 2023.
其中許多是搬遷和改造,再加上一些商店的關閉,預計到今年年底,全價商店將淨增加約 22 家,第四季度將淨增加約 5 家新店。與這些實體店相關的支出約佔 2023 年計畫資本支出金額的一半。
Additionally, we will also continuing with our investments in our various technology systems initiatives. Finally, we anticipate limited limited initial capital spend in the fourth quarter related to our multiyear fulfillment center project that Tom highlighted earlier. We anticipate expenditures related to the project to continue in 2024 and 2025 with a substantial majority of this spend occurring in 2024. We expect total spend for the project to be approximately $130 million.
此外,我們也將繼續對各種技術系統計劃進行投資。最後,我們預計第四季度與湯姆先前強調的多年履行中心項目相關的初始資本支出有限。我們預計與該項目相關的支出將在 2024 年和 2025 年繼續,其中大部分支出發生在 2024 年。我們預計該項目的總支出約為 1.3 億美元。
We continue to have a very positive outlook on our cash and liquidity position as well after generating cash flow from operations of $126 million in 2022, which included a working capital increase of $85 million. We expect to increase our cash flow from operations significantly to a level well in excess of 200 million in 2023. This level of positive cash flow from operations provides ample cash flow to fund our capital expenditures dividends, share repurchases and the continued reduction of our outstanding debt during the year. Although SG&A investments will put pressure on 2023 margins, these actions will set the table well for mid to upper single digit top line growth, a long-term operating margin target at or above 15%.
在 2022 年營運產生 1.26 億美元的現金流(其中包括 8,500 萬美元的營運資本增加)之後,我們對現金和流動性狀況仍抱有非常積極的前景。我們預計到2023 年,我們的營運現金流量將大幅增加至超過2 億的水平。這一水平的正營運現金流量為我們的資本支出、股息、股票回購和持續減少我們的流通股提供了充足的現金流。年內的債務。儘管 SG&A 投資將對 2023 年的利潤率構成壓力,但這些行動將為中上個位數的收入成長奠定良好基礎,即 15% 或以上的長期營運利潤率目標。
Thanks for your time today. And now we'll turn the call over for questions.
感謝您今天抽出時間。現在我們將轉接電話詢問問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Edward Yruma, Piper Sandler.
愛德華·尤魯瑪,派珀·桑德勒。
Edward Yruma - Analyst
Edward Yruma - Analyst
Good afternoon, guys, and thanks for taking the question. I guess first with Tommy Bahama, we noticed you swapped out your traditional flip side with a gift with purchase, which I know Lilly has successfully, would love to understand. I think that was part of the softness that you pointed to in direct to consumer and then I guess just stepping back a little bit, I remember last quarter you talked about some assortment issues and that some of the newer stuff was moving faster than some of the older stuff, I guess, did you see some of those trends persist? Thanks very much and happy holidays.
下午好,夥計們,感謝您提出問題。我想首先是湯米·巴哈馬,我們注意到你用購買禮物換掉了傳統的反面,我知道莉莉已經成功地做到了這一點,我很想理解。我認為這是您直接向消費者指出的軟性的一部分,然後我想只是退一步,我記得上個季度您談到了一些分類問題,並且一些新產品的發展速度比一些新產品更快我想,您是否看到其中一些趨勢持續存在?非常感謝,節日快樂。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Okay. First, with respect to the, you know, sort of the special offers around the Black Friday Cyber Monday weekend. And if you look back at what we did last year, we actually didn't have the flip side starting over that weekend at the last year that we did that, I believe was 2020. And since then, we push the start of the flip side out in sort of separated those events. The difference between last year's weekend. And this year's was that last year we had a couple of category wide discount. So for example, I think we were 30% off on the whole island soft this year. Last year, this year, we didn't do that. We had a couple of special value items where we delivered some styles that were at very compelling prices, but it would assist a handful. And then we did the gift with purchase, which was the beach chair. And with those $300 spent, which, by the way, it performed very, very well we were very happy with the results that we got from that both online and in-store, which is kind of unusual for a gift with purchase for work in those channels. And so we love that. And maybe other than that, we have we really have the same pack cards or gift cards that we've done for as long as I can remember, though, and then the flip side, which is similar in timing to where it's been in the last couple of years. So I guess what I would tell you is we're really less promotional in Tommy than we were last year and maintenance and then the.
好的。首先,關於黑色星期五網路星期一週末的特別優惠。如果你回顧一下我們去年所做的事情,我們實際上並沒有從我們去年這樣做的那個週末開始,我相信是 2020 年。從那時起,我們就推動了翻轉的開始側面朝外,以某種方式將這些事件分開。與去年的周末不同。今年是去年我們有幾個類別的折扣。舉個例子,我想今年我們全島軟裝的折扣是 30%。去年、今年我們沒有這樣做。我們有一些特殊價值的商品,我們提供了一些價格非常有吸引力的款式,但這對少數人有幫助。然後我們買了禮物,就是沙灘椅。順便說一句,花費了 300 美元,效果非常非常好,我們對在線和店內獲得的結果非常滿意,這對於購買工作禮物來說有點不尋常。那些渠道。所以我們喜歡這樣。也許除此之外,我們確實擁有從我記事以來我們就一直在做的相同的包裝卡或禮品卡,但另一方面,這在時間上與它在時間上的情況相似。過去幾年。所以我想我要告訴你的是,我們在湯米的促銷活動確實比去年少,維護和然後。
Yes, the new this question, I would say, really across the brands, all the brands, newness is more compelling to consumers this year. They they want to see new. They loaded up on a lot of stuff over the last couple of pandemic years, and they're loving newness. Fortunately, we've got a lot of it for them. And so I think we're pretty well positioned from from that standpoint.
是的,新這個問題,我想說,真的是跨品牌,所有品牌,今年的新奇更吸引消費者。他們希望看到新的東西。在過去幾年的大流行中,他們買了很多東西,而且他們喜歡新鮮事物。幸運的是,我們為他們準備了很多。所以我認為從這個角度來看我們處於非常有利的位置。
Edward Yruma - Analyst
Edward Yruma - Analyst
Thanks so much. Happy holidays.
非常感謝。節日快樂。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
You too Ed.
你也是艾德。
Operator
Operator
Ashley Owens, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Ashley Owens,KeyBanc 資本市場。
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Great, thanks. So just first, you called out some choppiness around the business so far in 4Q just curious if you've seen any different behavior among consumers, shopping brick and mortar versus e-commerce, And then any variances you're seeing between brand?
萬分感謝。首先,您指出了第四季度迄今為止業務的一些波動,只是好奇您是否看到消費者、實體購物和電子商務之間有任何不同的行為,然後您在品牌之間看到了任何差異嗎?
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Excuse me, but 20 what?
對不起,20 是什麼?
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Between between retail and e-com?
介於零售與電子商務之間?
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, between brick-and-mortar and come up with a big theme actually to us, it's really the conversion rates are coming down. That's the big difference. You know, traffic generally units kind of differ a little bit among the different brands and the channels. But the big thing to me this year, and this is where you see that caution for the movie more judicious spending by that consumer come into play is that the conversion rates have come down a bit from where they would have been on a year ago.
是的,在實體和對我們來說實際上提出一個大主題之間,轉換率確實在下降。這就是很大的差別。您知道,不同品牌和通路之間的流量單位通常略有不同。但今年對我來說最重要的是,這就是你看到消費者對電影更明智的支出的謹慎發揮作用的地方,那就是轉換率比一年前有所下降。
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Okay, great. And then just second real quick on emerging brands. You've seen some strength within segment during the year. You've opened a couple have stores there and kind of an overview of where you think you are in your store rollout potential within emerging brands and how you're thinking about that opportunity longer term?
好的,太好了。然後快速關注新興品牌。這一年裡,您已經看到了該細分市場的一些實力。您在那裡開設了幾家商店,並概述了您認為自己在新興品牌中的商店推出潛力處於什麼位置,以及您如何考慮長期的機會?
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. So I think we've got it in the Emerging Brands Group. At this point, we have three brands where we got where we own 100% of the business and they're part of our reporting in those three years. Southern Tide for Bonnet Company and talk had two of those brands currently have stores open Southern Tide's up to speed 15. Now I think with plans to add more and be for dynamic company. We've got three open now and a couple of more on the drawing board. We're still in the early stages with those. We like what we see, but we want to make the formula right, but then assuming that we can do that and have a retail formula that works well and we very much believe we can in both of those brands then I think they could have a similar number of stores that you see in Lilly Pulitzer pretty easily. I think geographically, their strength is going to be or Lilly Pulitzer's up pretty closely at those similarly position from sort of a price point and where they sit from a market standpoint. So I think seeing a, you know, Lilly number and thinking you know, 75, 80 stores longer term, I think is very easy to get your head around all, of course, caveated with we want to make sure we've got a retail formula that delivers good cash return on cash invested.
是的。所以我認為我們已經在新興品牌集團中找到了它。目前,我們有三個品牌,我們擁有 100% 的業務,它們是我們三年報告的一部分。 Southern Tide 的 Bonnet Company 和談話中有兩個品牌目前開設了 Southern Tide 商店,速度高達 15 家。現在我認為計劃增加更多並成為充滿活力的公司。我們現在已經開放了三個,還有幾個正在籌劃中。我們仍處於早期階段。我們喜歡我們所看到的,但我們希望使公式正確,但假設我們可以做到這一點並且擁有一個運行良好的零售公式,並且我們非常相信我們可以在這兩個品牌中那麼我認為他們可以有一個您很容易在莉莉普立茲 (Lilly Pulitzer) 看到類似數量的商店。我認為,從地理角度來看,從價格點以及從市場角度來看,他們的實力將與莉莉·普立茲(Lilly Pulitzer)的實力相當接近。所以我認為,看到禮來公司的數字,並認為從長遠來看,你知道 75、80 家商店,我認為你很容易理解所有內容,當然,需要注意的是,我們希望確保我們有一個零售公式可帶來良好的現金投資回報。
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Ashley Owens - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Very helpful color. Thank you.
非常有用的顏色。謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Okay. Thank you, Ashley.
好的。謝謝你,阿什利。
Operator
Operator
Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group.
達納‧特爾西,特爾西諮詢小組。
Dana Telsey - Analyst
Dana Telsey - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon, everyone from Scott. As you think about the current environment and what you saw much of what's happening is the external environment with the brands, how much of it do you see product enhancements coming on the way that should it help accelerate sales growth?
嗨,斯科特的大家下午好。當您思考當前的環境時,您看到的大部分情況都是品牌的外部環境,您認為產品改進在多大程度上有助於加速銷售成長?
And on the wholesale channel, which I've always thought of it's very small for you. How do you see the go forward there and what opportunities are to stabilize that business? Thank you.
在批發管道上,我一直認為它對你來說很小。您如何看待該領域的發展以及穩定該業務的機會是什麼?謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. So with respect to the first question, I mean, I don't I don't want to sound like what are the kind of company that always points that figure that external factors and never looks within with the first place we always look at is what could we do better? And we've got a list that's United six pages long and things that we will lessons that we've learned from this year that will incorporate into next year. And I tried to improve things, but I honestly believe the biggest factor is the external market conditions. And I don't think we're unique in this at all. I think if you look across the space and the companies that we would really think of this as peers are saying that most of them are seeing and similar trends I think the biggest factor really is the more cautious and more judicious consumer. That said, you know, again, we are looking internally and looking at ways that we can improve and we do that every year, whether business is good or whether it's not so good. We're always looking at ways that we can improve. And we've definitely seen in the suite commented in response to a question that newness is selling really well in innovation and selling really well. We think we're good at that and we will be sure that we continue to do that.
是的。因此,關於第一個問題,我的意思是,我不想聽起來像什麼樣的公司總是指出外部因素,而從不考慮內部因素,我們總是首先考慮的是我們可以做得更好嗎?我們有一份曼聯六頁長的清單,以及我們將從今年學到的教訓,這些教訓將納入明年。我試著改進事情,但老實說,我相信最大的因素是外部市場條件。我認為我們在這方面根本不是獨一無二的。我認為,如果你縱觀整個領域和公司,我們真的會認為這一點,因為同行們都說他們中的大多數人都看到了類似的趨勢,我認為最大的因素實際上是消費者更加謹慎和明智。也就是說,你知道,我們再次在內部尋找改進的方法,我們每年都會這樣做,無論業務好或不好。我們一直在尋找可以改進的方法。我們在套件中肯定看到了在回答一個問題時的評論,即創新在創新中賣得非常好,而且賣得非常好。我們認為我們擅長於此,並且我們將確保繼續這樣做。
And then with regard to wholesale at Dana, we don't really think we lost and position that all and where we have good data on it. Our performance at retail our sell through, if you will. And our natural gross margin has been quite good. It's simply that the retailers have sort of pulled back a bit for our first spring and we're feeling the effect of that. As you know, from a brand health standpoint, we don't really mind that because we'd rather not them to have them be over-inventoried. But I think what's going to happen is they're going to get into spring and they're going to be chasing inventory. And of course, we'll we'll do well, we can help them. But I'm just saying there's going to be a little bit of demand left on the table.
然後,關於德納的批發業務,我們並不真正認為我們失去了這一切,並且我們擁有良好的數據。如果你願意的話,我們在零售方面的表現我們的銷售表現。我們的自然毛利率也相當不錯。只是零售商在我們的第一個春天有所收縮,我們已經感受到了這種影響。如您所知,從品牌健康的角度來看,我們並不介意這一點,因為我們不希望他們庫存過多。但我認為將會發生的情況是,他們將進入春季,他們將追逐庫存。當然,我們會做得很好,我們可以幫助他們。但我只是說,桌面上還剩下一點需求。
Dana Telsey - Analyst
Dana Telsey - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Thank you, Dana.
謝謝你,達納。
Operator
Operator
Mauricio Serna, UBS.
毛里西奧·塞爾納,瑞銀。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions on. I guess just wanted to check on the fourth quarter sales outlook. What does it imply for though, just wanted to check like what is implied for those comps? Are growth of organic of the business and how much you expect the additional week to contribute to sales growth.
下午好,感謝您回答我的問題。我想只是想看看第四季的銷售前景。但這意味著什麼,只是想檢查一下這些比較意味著什麼?業務的有機成長以及您預計額外一週對銷售成長的貢獻有多大。
And then lastly, on the commentary on the outlook, I think you mentioned something about and you expect some some pressure on margins in fiscal year 24 because of the investments in store openings. So I don't know if this is if that means we should assume like.
最後,關於前景的評論,我認為您提到了一些事情,並且您預計由於開店投資,第 24 財年的利潤率會受到一些壓力。所以我不知道這是否意味著我們應該這樣假設。
And on top of work like this, the 14% margin that you expect for 23, we could expect another year of operating margin compression?
除了這樣的工作之外,您預期 23 年的利潤率為 14%,我們還可以預期營業利益率又會壓縮一年嗎?
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
I think yes, I'll start with the first one. I don't think it necessarily means that we're going to see compression in operating margin. It's just that we will have some headwinds to the margin will be things that help us in that regard, too, including annualizing all the stores that we've opened this year at the Johnny was Web site. I think back half probably improvement in the wholesale market. So I don't know that I'd jump to that yet. I'll let Scott elaborate on that.
我想是的,我將從第一個開始。我認為這並不一定意味著我們會看到營業利潤率壓縮。只是我們在利潤方面會遇到一些阻力,但在這方面也會有一些對我們有幫助的事情,包括對我們今年在 Johnny was 網站上開設的所有商店進行年度化。我認為批發市場的後半程可能會有所改善。所以我還不知道我是否會跳到這一點。我會讓斯科特詳細說明這一點。
And then with regard to the fourth quarter outlook, that is a good question because we actually it's not just the comp. There's the 53rd week in there the wholesale situation.
關於第四季度的前景,這是一個很好的問題,因為我們實際上不僅僅是比較。這是批發情況的第 53 週。
Now let Scott also sort of tried to bridge that gap for you.
現在讓史考特也試著為你彌補這一差距。
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Yes, Marissa, remember, we mentioned we're going to open six Marlin Bars next year, one of them is going to have in the very, very beginning of year. It's one that we thought we'd get in January. It's pushing out, but the other five will have some significant preopening, you're you've got preopening rent starting about seven months before you're actually open. So when you have that many of them. But again, we're going to have the benefit of the 24 stores on that, hopefully help neutralize that. As far as the 53rd week, we're going to be somewhere in that $25 million range in top line for that additional week in our comps. We've got a low single digit comps in our fourth quarter plan. And then we've got some new units we have in this year that hopefully will contribute around 10 million in the fourth quarter.
是的,瑪麗莎,記住,我們提到明年我們將開設六家馬林魚酒吧,其中一家將在今年年初開設。這是我們原以為一月就能得到的。它正在推出,但其他五個將有一些顯著的預開業,你在實際開業前大約七個月就開始收取預開業租金。所以當你有那麼多的時候。但同樣,我們將受益於 24 家商店,希望能幫助抵消這種影響。就第 53 週而言,我們的比較中額外一週的收入將在 2500 萬美元的範圍內。我們的第四季計畫中的業績比較低個位數。然後我們今年有一些新的單位,希望在第四季貢獻約 1000 萬美元。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Right, understood.
對了,明白了。
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Paul Lejuez, Citi.
保羅‧勒胡埃斯,花旗銀行。
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Hey, thanks. It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I think you guys were talking about conversion earlier, and I think you had mentioned last call you had seen a slowdown in August driven by conversion. I was just wondering how your overall trends wound up going through the rest of the quarter and did conversion decelerate from there from what you were seeing in August? Or did it kind of stabilize? And then also what was your AUR for the quarter?
嘿,謝謝。崔西·科根 (Tracy Kogan) 接替保羅。我想你們早些時候討論過轉換問題,而且我想你們也提到過上次通話,你們在 8 月看到了轉換帶來的放緩。我只是想知道本季剩餘時間的整體趨勢如何,從八月份的情況來看,轉換率是否有所放緩?或者說已經穩定下來了?另外,您本季的 AUR 是多少?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
And so with respect to the Converse and Tracy, I think it's a little bit more of a continuation really of what we were seeing in August. And you know, if you want to get super granular about it, I'm sure we can parse out some differences. But I think it's really that same phenomenon that we were seeing in August.
因此,就 Converse 和 Tracy 而言,我認為這更像是我們在 8 月看到的情況的延續。你知道,如果你想了解更多細節,我相信我們可以解析出一些差異。但我認為這確實與我們八月看到的現象相同。
And just to be clear, it's not like conversions dropping through the floor. It's just lower than last year. And when you look at, you know, at had comp sales, you know, that's really a function of traffic conversion and then how much they're spending and trying to give you a good flavor, clear flavor of what's going on among those levers. It's really the conversion that's, you know, that the pull in the numbers now an update on the AUR., Brian, or it's holding its own and pretty good.
需要明確的是,這並不像轉換率直線下降。只是比去年低而已。當你看一下,你知道,在有比較銷售時,你知道,這實際上是流量轉換的函數,然後是他們花費了多少,並試圖給你一個良好的印象,清楚地了解這些槓桿中正在發生的事情。這實際上是一種轉換,你知道,現在數字的變化是 AUR 的更新。布萊恩,或者說它保持了自己的狀態並且相當不錯。
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Why don't you start it up?
為什麼不啟動它呢?
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
No, go ahead.
沒有,繼續。
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
But now I was just going to ask what your 4Q guidance assumes for the promotional environment.
但現在我只想問一下你們的第四季指引對促銷環境的假設。
Jerry, as we know, are you assuming an increase in promotions relative to last year.
傑瑞,據我們所知,您是否認為促銷活動比去年增加?
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
You mean for us or for the market?
你指的是我們還是市場?
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
(multiple speakers)
(多個發言者)
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. I think for us, we're very consistent. We walked through the whole cadence of promotions with Tommy Bahama. But I would say across the board that were consistent with the IRS to mix things up a little bit.
是的。我認為對我們來說,我們非常一致。我們和湯米·巴哈馬一起經歷了整個促銷的節奏。但我想說的是,這與美國國稅局的做法是一致的,只是把事情搞混了一點。
You know, not every events exactly apples to apples, but and.
你知道,並不是所有事件都完全一樣,但是而且。
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
we did mention we expect some very modest gross margin expansion, and that's a little more mix oriented with the direct consumer being a bit higher beta. But overall, margins should hold well, which means promotion should be pretty much in line with last year.
我們確實提到過,我們預計毛利率會出現非常溫和的成長,而且這會更加以混合為導向,直接消費者的貝塔值會更高一些。但總體而言,利潤率應該保持良好,這意味著促銷應該與去年基本一致。
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Tracy Kogan - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Thank you, Tracey.
謝謝你,特蕾西。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Lick, B. Riley Financial.
Jeff Lick,B. Riley Financial。
Jeff Lick - Analyst
Jeff Lick - Analyst
Good afternoon, guys. Congrats on a great quarter. I was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on the food and beverage coming in at '23. Obviously, Hawaii, you mentioned remodels had an impact I was just wondering if you can maybe reconcile like how much of an impact that might have been.
下午好,夥計們。恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度。我只是想知道您能否詳細說明一下 23 年推出的食品和飲料。顯然,夏威夷,你提到改造產生了影響,我只是想知道你是否可以調和可能產生的影響有多大。
And then obviously, Tommy appears to be the standout in terms of sales I'm just curious to maybe unpack a little bit of where that came from.
顯然,湯米在銷售方面似乎很突出,我只是好奇也許能解開一些它的來源。
Is that can you continue to see good growth in women's?
那你能繼續看到女裝的良好成長嗎?
Just any any help there would be appreciated.
只要有任何幫助,我們將不勝感激。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, I'll start with the women's because, boy, that's a great story that we've had this year. As you know, Jeff, we always look at that with our direct consumer bases because that's the clean way to look at it. But in the third quarter, we were up from just under 30 last year to just under 35 this year, which we're super excited. And year to date, we're close to 38 from roughly 35 last year. So that's a very good story.
是的,我將從女子開始,因為,孩子,這是我們今年的一個很棒的故事。如你所知,傑夫,我們總是以我們的直接消費者基礎來看待這個問題,因為這是看待它的乾淨方式。但在第三季度,我們的數量從去年的不到 30 人增加到了今年的不到 35 人,這讓我們感到非常興奮。今年迄今為止,我們已經從去年的大約 35 個增加到了 38 個。所以這是一個非常好的故事。
And then in terms of some of the remodeling and July impact, Scott?
然後就一些改造和七月的影響而言,斯科特?
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Yes, yes, Jeff, we comped down we were down 3%, but we comped up 1% in food and beverage. We had about 1 million of top line impacted by both behind us being gone and modularity. We had a major remodel, so it was closed a good part of the quarter. So overall, food and beverage business has been very good. So we've been very pleased with that.
是的,是的,傑夫,我們減少了 3%,但我們在食品和飲料方面增加了 1%。我們有大約 100 萬的營收受到我們背後的消失和模組化的影響。我們進行了重大改造,因此該季度的大部分時間都關閉了。所以整體來說,餐飲生意還是很好的。所以我們對此非常滿意。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
It's also I'll just add it's been very steady, Scott and I were talking about this earlier today, but it, you know, we haven't had more than one day or one or two days in a row that maybe were off a little bit, but it's been every day. We seem to just keep delivering in food and beverage, which is great assets.
我還要補充一點,它一直非常穩定,斯科特和我今天早些時候討論過這個問題,但是,你知道,我們沒有超過一天或連續一兩天可能沒有休息。雖然有一點點,但是每天都是如此。我們似乎一直在提供食物和飲料,這是寶貴的資產。
Jeff Lick - Analyst
Jeff Lick - Analyst
thanks very much for the color and look forward to following up.
非常感謝您的顏色並期待後續。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Thank you, Jeff.
謝謝你,傑夫。
Operator
Operator
Janine Stichter, BTAG.
珍妮·斯蒂克特,BTAG。
Janine Stichter - Analyst
Janine Stichter - Analyst
Congrats on the strong quarter in a tough environment. And the other question on promotions understanding that the promotions are planned in Q4 pretty similar last year. But I'd love to understand just that the environment remains promotional as we get into next year, your high-level kind of philosophical thoughts on just your willingness to flex more promotions to stay competitive?
祝賀在艱難的環境中實現強勁的季度業績。關於促銷的另一個問題是,第四季的促銷計劃與去年非常相似。但我很想知道,隨著我們進入明年,促銷環境仍然存在,您對願意採取更多促銷活動以保持競爭力有何高層次的哲學想法?
And then second, for me, on active customers, you've grown them by a huge number over the last two years. So just any changes in retention of those customers for any habits of the more recent cohorts? Thank you.
其次,對我來說,在活躍客戶方面,過去兩年你的客戶數量大幅增加。那麼,這些客戶的保留是否會因最近一批人的習慣而改變?謝謝。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
I think with respect to our promotional philosophy, I don't think it will really change a whole lot that I think we focus on keeping our brands relevant by making sure that they have very clear positions that they make very clear and consistent brand messaging. And then it's all about creating desire to me, as you know, what we sell is not something that people really need. It's more of a one item and that's our number one job at through our brands is to create that desire and then have the products that they desire can be the object of. And we've been through a lot of promotional cycles, you know, forever and every year the market is promotional. And we strongly believe as we've demonstrated this year and you know, in the third quarter and I think we will in the fourth quarter that we can remain very well up and come and perform well relative to where the market is based on our latest branding, our activities on. So that's sort of our game plan better.
我認為就我們的促銷理念而言,我認為這不會真正改變很多,我認為我們專注於保持我們的品牌的相關性,確保他們有非常明確的立場,他們發出非常清晰和一致的品牌訊息。然後這一切都是為了給我創造慾望,如你所知,我們銷售的東西並不是人們真正需要的東西。它更多的是一件商品,這是我們透過我們的品牌所做的首要工作,就是創造這種慾望,然後讓他們想要的產品成為他們想要的物件。我們已經經歷了很多促銷週期,你知道,每年市場都會促銷。我們堅信,正如我們今年所展示的那樣,您知道,在第三季度,我認為我們將在第四季度,我們可以保持良好的狀態,並根據我們最新的市場情況,相對於市場表現良好品牌,我們的活動。所以這是我們更好的遊戲計劃。
Janine Stichter - Analyst
Janine Stichter - Analyst
And then there's an active customers, active customers.
然後是活躍客戶,活躍客戶。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
As we said, our active customer count is up mid single digits up for the trailing 12 months year over year. And our new customer add rate is also up on a mid single digit. So, you know, the health of our customer base, our ability to attract and remains quite good. And then as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, average annual spend is more or less flat.
正如我們所說,過去 12 個月我們的活躍客戶數量年增了中個位數。我們的新客戶增加率也達到了中個位數。所以,你知道,我們客戶群的健康狀況、我們的吸引能力和仍然相當好。正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的,平均年度支出或多或少持平。
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Scott Grassmyer - EVP, CFO & COO
Our retention rates are holding well, which is I guess, something that you have a very high retention rate and it's been Tony.
我們的保留率保持得很好,我猜,你的保留率非常高,而且是托尼。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Very healthy retention.
非常健康的保留。
Janine Stichter - Analyst
Janine Stichter - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Brian Smith - IR
Brian Smith - IR
Thank you, Jane.
謝謝你,簡。
Operator
Operator
And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Chairman and CEO, Tom Chubb for closing remarks.
我們的問答環節已經結束了。現在,我將把電話轉回給董事長兼執行長湯姆·查布 (Tom Chubb) 致閉幕詞。
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Tom Chubb - Chairman, President & CEO
Okay, thank you. Some US sites, all of you very much for your interest in our company. We wish you all a very happy holiday season, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Take care until then.
好的謝謝。一些美國網站,大家非常對我們公司有興趣。我們祝福大家度過一個愉快的假期,並期待下個季度再次與您交談。在那之前要小心。
Operator
Operator
And this concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的會議到此結束,此時您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。