Oshkosh Corp (OSK) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Oshkosh Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，奧什科甚投資者關係高級副總裁帕特·戴維森。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our third quarter 2024 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第三季的業績。您可在我們的網站 oshkoshcorp.com 上取得該新聞稿的副本。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，也可在我們的網站上查閱。音訊重播和幻燈片演示將在我們的網站上提供約 12 個月。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

請參閱該簡報的第 2 張投影片。我們隨後的評論（包括對您的問題的回答）包含我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義前瞻性的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險，可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險包括但不限於我們今天上午向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所描述的事項。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務，這些陳述可能要等到我們下次季度收益電話會議時才會更新（如果有的話）。

Our presenters today include John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Pack, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and President of our vocational segment.

今天的演講者包括總裁兼執行長約翰·普法伊弗 (John Pfeifer)；以及我們職業部門的執行副總裁、財務長兼總裁邁克·帕克（Mike Pack）。

Please turn to Slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, John

請翻到投影片 3，我將把它交給你，約翰

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to announce another solid quarter with revenue growth of 9% and an adjusted operating margin of 10.3%. Our adjusted EPS of $2.93 was in line with our third quarter expectations we shared during our second quarter earnings call. We continue to see improving performance and growth across our vocational business portfolio and an improving defense segment outlook with new contract award pricing. While our access segment is experiencing softer market conditions in North America in the near term, we expect we will continue to deliver resilient healthy margins.

謝謝你，帕特，大家早安。我很高興地宣布，本季又取得了穩健的成績，營收成長了 9%，調整後的營業利潤率為 10.3%。我們的調整後每股收益為 2.93 美元，與我們在第二季財報電話會議上分享的第三季預期一致。我們繼續看到我們的職業業務組合的業績和成長不斷提高，並且隨著新合約授予定價的提高，國防部門的前景也不斷改善。儘管我們的接取部門短期內正經歷北美較弱的市場環境，但我們預期我們將繼續提供有彈性的健康利潤率。

In light of somewhat softer access equipment markets, we are updating our full year 2024 outlook for adjusted EPS to be approximately $11.35 per share versus our prior estimate of approximately $11.75 per share. During the quarter, we achieved a significant milestone as the United States Postal Service began placing our next-generation delivery vehicles, or NGDV, in service for last mile delivery.

鑑於高空作業設備市場略顯疲軟，我們將 2024 年全年調整後每股盈餘預期從先前預測的約 11.75 美元/股更新為約 11.35 美元/股。在本季度，我們取得了一個重要的里程碑，因為美國郵政服務開始將我們的下一代運送車輛（NGDV）投入最後一英里的運送。

The NGDV leveraged our market-leading innovation and technological capabilities to provide the U.S. postal service with the industry's most state-of-the-art purpose-built delivery vehicles that modernize and decarbonize their fleet while enhancing driver safety. We are pleased with early positive feedback on NGDV performance in the field, and we remain focused on executing our production ramp-up, which is progressing well.

NGDV 利用我們市場領先的創新和技術能力，為美國郵政服務提供業內最先進的專用運輸車輛，使其車隊現代化和脫碳，同時提高駕駛員安全性。我們對 NGDV 在現場表現的早期積極回饋感到滿意，我們將繼續專注於執行進展順利的生產提升。

Last month, the science-based targets initiative notified us that they approved our greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. SPTI's validation of our targets reflects another important step in our journey of reducing our carbon footprint while consistently delivering groundbreaking solutions that shape a more sustainable future.

上個月，科學碳目標倡議組織通知我們，他們批准了我們的溫室氣體減排目標。SPTI 對我們目標的驗證反映了我們在減少碳足跡的同時不斷提供塑造更永續未來的突破性解決方案的旅程中邁出的又一重要一步。

Please turn to Slide 4, and we'll get started on our segment updates. The Access team delivered year-over-year third quarter sales growth. While we believe mega projects and fleet ages remain tailwinds, pockets of slowing nonresidential construction activity and persistently higher interest rates have been putting pressure on the market. Furthermore, as mentioned on our last call, we have seen customer demand revert back to more typical seasonality.

請翻到投影片 4，我們將開始進行片段更新。Access 團隊第三季的銷售額年增。雖然我們認為大型專案和船隊年齡仍然是順風，但非住宅建築活動放緩和持續走高的利率一直給市場帶來壓力。此外，正如我們上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們已經看到客戶需求恢復到更典型的季節性。

We remain confident in our ability to deliver solid margins even during a period of softer market conditions. We are working with our customers on their 2025 requirements, and we continue to expect meaningful orders during the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025. Overall, we believe the access market will remain healthy over our long-term planning horizon. Our access team continues to advance its products with state-of-the-art technology, our ClearSky smart fleet connected solutions platform is an example of this capability. Customers are enthusiastic about the 2-way communications and other technology enhancements, including over-the-air software updates, digital access control and integration into our online Express e-commerce platform that are improving productivity.

即使在市場環境較弱的時期，我們仍有信心達到穩定的利潤。我們正在與客戶合作滿足他們的 2025 年需求，並繼續期待在 2024 年第四季和 2025 年第一季獲得有意義的訂單。整體而言，我們相信在我們的長期規劃範圍內，接取市場將保持健康。我們的訪問團隊不斷利用最先進的技術來改進其產品，我們的 ClearSky 智慧車隊互聯解決方案平台就是這種能力的一個例子。客戶對雙向通訊和其他技術改進感到非常興奮，其中包括無線軟體更新、數位存取控制以及整合到我們的線上 Express 電子商務平台等，這些都提高了生產力。

In early September, we completed our previously announced acquisition of AUSA. A leading European manufacturer of specialty equipment, including wheeled dumpers, rough terrain forklifts and telehandlers. We are pleased to bring AUSA into the Oshkosh family. AUSA is a market leader in Spain and serves adjacent new markets for us, including vegetation management. And it expands our agricultural presence and complements our traditional access equipment markets. We also believe that leveraging our North American sales channel for AUSA products will support growth moving forward. For example, our slide deck shows JLG's new E313 electric telehandler manufactured by AUSA. The battery-powered E313 offers zero emission and low noise operation for moving materials around in critical workspace.

9月初，我們完成了先前宣布的 AUSA 的收購。歐洲領先的專用設備製造商，產品包括輪式自卸車、越野堆高機和伸縮臂叉裝機。我們很高興將 AUSA 加入 Oshkosh 大家庭。AUSA 是西班牙的市場領導者，並為我們服務鄰近的新市場，包括植被管理。它擴大了我們的農業影響力並補充了我們傳統的接入設備市場。我們也相信，利用我們的北美 AUSA 產品銷售管道將支持未來的成長。例如，我們的幻燈片展示了由 AUSA 生產的 JLG 新型 E313 電動伸縮臂叉裝機。電池供電的 E313 可實現零排放和低噪音運行，適合在關鍵工作空間內移動材料。

Please turn to Slide 5, and I'll review our vocational segment. Our vocational segment achieved strong year-over-year revenue growth of 17.6% in the third quarter, leading to another solid adjusted operating margin of 13.7%. Demand for vocational products remains very strong, and our backlog continues to grow, providing long-term visibility. We remain focused on achieving increased throughput in our existing facilities to support growth. Concurrently, we are reviewing our manufacturing footprint as we evaluate additional investments to increase production capacity over the next few years.

請翻到投影片 5，我將回顧我們的職業部分。我們的職業部門第三季實現了 17.6% 的強勁年收入成長，調整後營業利潤率再次穩定達到 13.7%。對職業產品的需求仍然很強勁，我們的積壓訂單持續成長，提供了長期的可見性。我們將繼續致力於提高現有設施的產量以支持成長。同時，我們正在審查我們的製造足跡，評估未來幾年增加生產能力的額外投資。

Furthermore, we have continued to lead in technology insertions across our range of products from autonomous functionality to electrification and to intelligent product features. We expect this technological advancement to provide substantial benefits to our customers and drive growth for our company. In September, Republic Services issued another significant order for 100 of our new purpose-built zero-emission electric Volterra ZSL Refuse and Recycling collection vehicles, as Republic strives to improve productivity while reinforcing its commitment to a reduced carbon footprint.

此外，我們繼續在從自主功能到電氣化和智慧產品功能等一系列產品的技術置入方面保持領先地位。我們期望這項技術進步能為我們的客戶帶來實質的利益並推動公司的發展。9 月，共和服務公司又發出了另一份重要訂單，訂購 100 輛全新專用零排放電動 Volterra ZSL 垃圾和回收收集車，共和服務公司致力於提高生產效率，同時加強對減少碳足蹟的承諾。

Customer interest in these revolutionary fully integrated electric vehicles remains very high. We have more than 100 customer demonstrations scheduled that began in the third quarter and will continue over the next several months, allowing current and future customers to experience firsthand the significant benefits of our Volterra ZSL. I'd like to highlight two smaller but important vocational businesses on today's call, both our IMT service vehicle and front discharge concrete mixer businesses have been performing well, delivering strong margins and contributing to the success of the vocational segment. We celebrated the 1-year anniversary of the AeroTech acquisition on August 1, and we are pleased with the integration and results to date.

客戶對這些革命性的全整合電動車的興趣仍然很高。我們計劃於第三季開始舉辦 100 多場客戶演示，並將在接下來的幾個月內持續舉辦，讓現有和未來的客戶親身體驗我們的 Volterra ZSL 的顯著優勢。在今天的電話會議上，我想強調兩項規模較小但很重要的職業業務，我們的 IMT 服務車輛和前卸式混凝土攪拌機業務均表現良好，實現了強勁的利潤率，並為職業領域的成功做出了貢獻。我們在 8 月 1 日慶祝了 AeroTech 收購一周年，我們對迄今為止的整合和成果感到滿意。

By combining our strengths, we expect to drive innovations in electrification, autonomous functionality and intelligent product features. The team at AeroTech showcased several innovative products at the ground support Equipment Expo last month in Lisbon, Portugal. The show was well attended and featured our market-leading airport ground support equipment, our electric ARFF Volterra as well as JLG equipment, which is also used extensively at airports.

透過結合我們的優勢，我們希望推動電氣化、自動化功能和智慧產品功能的創新。上個月，AeroTech 團隊在葡萄牙里斯本舉行的地面支援設備博覽會上展示了幾款創新產品。此次展會參與人數眾多，展示了我們市場領先的機場地面支援設備、電動 ARFF Volterra 以及 JLG 設備，這些設備在機場也廣泛使用。

Our display demonstrated the broad capabilities Oshkosh provides to the air transportation industry as well as the strong commercial synergies between our businesses. Global air passenger metrics continued to strengthen with International Air Transport Association's August figures showing growth of 8.6% year-over-year.

我們的展示體現了奧什科甚為航空運輸業提供的廣泛能力以及我們業務之間強大的商業協同效應。全球航空客運指標持續增強，國際航空運輸協會 8 月數據顯示，全球航空客運量年增 8.6%。

Let's turn to Slide 6 for a discussion of the Defense segment. Sales were up 14% as a result of NGDV production, higher tactical wheeled vehicle deliveries and aftermarket parts sales. As a reminder, we expect to ramp up in NGDV production throughout 2025 and exit 2025 at full rate production, leading to strong revenue expectations for these vehicles in 2026. We completed a 5- year contract extension for the FHTV program in early August, which includes a combination of better pricing and a robust economic price adjustment provision. We also expect to complete a 3- year contract extension for FMTV A2 in the first half of 2025 with both better pricing and similar EPA.

讓我們轉到投影片 6 來討論防禦部分。由於 NGDV 產量增加、戰術輪式車輛交付量增加以及售後零件銷售成長，銷售額成長了 14%。提醒一下，我們預計 NGDV 產量將在 2025 年全年增加，並在 2025 年達到滿載生產，從而有望在 2026 年實現強勁的收入。我們在 8 月初完成了 FHTV 專案 5 年合約延期，其中包括更優惠的定價和強勁的經濟價格調整條款。我們也預計將在 2025 年上半年完成 FMTV A2 的 3 年合約延期，並提供更優惠的價格和相似的 EPA。

We expect to begin delivering units under both of these contract extensions in early 2026. We believe these contract extensions provide solid visibility to customer demand and will support stronger, more resilient margins over the next several years. We continue to wind down domestic JLTV production and expect to ship the final domestic units in early 2025. On the technology front, during the quarter, we submitted our prototype proposal for Phase 2 of the robotic combat vehicle, RCV program.

我們預計將於 2026 年初開始交付這兩份延期合約項下的設備。我們相信，這些合約的延長將為客戶需求提供可靠的透明度，並將在未來幾年支持更強勁、更具彈性的利潤率。我們將繼續逐步減少國內 JLTV 的生產，預計在 2025 年初交付最後一批國內車輛。在技​​術方面，本季度，我們提交了機器人戰車 RCV 計劃第二階段的原型提案。

Our offering leverages engineering expertise across Oshkosh, including Pratt Miller to provide the U.S. Army with innovative, adaptable technologies to enhance soldier performance and mission success. The Oshkosh RCV is purpose-built and brings capabilities necessary for increased performance, improved maintainability and flexibility in multi-domain operations.

我們的產品利用奧什科甚的工程專業知識，包括普拉特米勒，為美國陸軍提供創新、適應性技術，以提高士兵的表現和任務成功率。奧什科甚遙控車輛是專門打造的，具有提高性能、改善可維護性和多領域操作靈活性所需的能力。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mike to discuss our results in more detail and our updated expectations for 2024.

接下來，我將讓麥克更詳細地討論我們的業績以及我們對 2024 年的最新預期。

Thanks, John. Please turn to Slide 7. Consolidated sales for the third quarter were $2.74 billion, an increase of $232 million or 9% over the prior year quarter. Our top line growth was driven by the benefit of increased organic volume in all segments an additional month of AeroTech sales in the current year as the business was acquired on August 1, 2023, and the benefit of improved pricing primarily in our vocational segment. Adjusted operating income increased $6.2 million over the prior year quarter to $283 million or 10.3% of sales. The improvement in adjusted operating income was largely driven by higher sales volumes and improved price cost dynamics, offset in part by higher SG&A and engineering costs.

謝謝，約翰。請翻到幻燈片 7。第三季綜合銷售額為 27.4 億美元，較去年同期增加 2.32 億美元，成長 9%。我們的營收成長主要得益於所有部門的有機銷售量增加（由於該業務於 2023 年 8 月 1 日被收購，本年度 AeroTech 的銷售額增加了一個月），以及主要在我們職業部門的定價改善帶來的好處。調整後的營業收入較去年同期增加 620 萬美元，達到 2.83 億美元，佔銷售額的 10.3%。調整後營業收入的成長主要得益於銷售量的增加和價格成本動態的改善，但銷售、一般及行政費用以及工程成本的增加部分抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted earnings per share was $2.93 in the third quarter versus $3.04 in the prior year. The modestly lower adjusted earnings per share on higher operating income was driven by a higher interest expense on our revolving credit facility. Please turn to Slide 8 for a review of our updated expectations for 2024. We are reducing our full year adjusted earnings outlook. On a consolidated basis, we now estimate 2024 sales to be approximately $10.6 billion versus our prior expectation of $10.7 billion. We are estimating adjusted operating income to be approximately $1.1 billion, down from our prior estimate of $1.14 billion and we are now estimating that adjusted earnings per share will be approximately $11.35 versus our most recent estimate of approximately $11.75.

第三季調整後每股收益為 2.93 美元，去年同期為 3.04 美元。在營業收入增加的情況下，調整後每股收益略有下降，這是由於循環信貸額度的利息支出增加所致。請翻到投影片 8 來了解我們對 2024 年的最新期望。我們正在下調全年調整後獲利預期。從綜合來看，我們現在預計 2024 年的銷售額約為 106 億美元，而先前預期為 107 億美元。我們預計調整後的營業收入約為 11 億美元，低於先前估計的 11.4 億美元，目前我們預計調整後的每股收益約為 11.35 美元，而我們最近的估計約為 11.75 美元。

At a segment level, we are estimating access sales to be approximately $5.1 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 16% compared to our prior expectations of approximately $5.3 billion and 16.5%, respectively. The reduced revenue and slightly lower margin expectations reflect the softer market conditions in North America previously highlighted. We expect vocational sales will be approximately $3.25 billion, and we are increasing our expectations for adjusted operating margin to be approximately 13.25%, up from our prior expectation of 12.75%.

在分部層面，我們預期接取銷售額約為 51 億美元，調整後營業利潤率為 16%，而我們先前預期的分別約為 53 億美元和 16.5%。營收減少和利潤率預期略有下降，反映出先前強調的北美市場狀況疲軟。我們預計職業銷售額將達到約 32.5 億美元，並且我們將調整後營業利潤率預期上調至約 13.25%，高於先前預期的 12.75%。

We expect stronger price/cost dynamics and lower spending to drive our improved margin outlook. For Defense, we are now -- we now expect sales to be approximately $2.15 billion, and we are maintaining our expectations for adjusted operating margin of approximately 2.25%. Our estimate for corporate and other costs is $190 million. Our expectation for tax rate remains 24%. Our expectation for share count is also unchanged at 65.8 million shares.

我們預計更強勁的價格/成本動態和更低的支出將推動我們利潤率前景的改善。對於國防而言，我們現在預計銷售額約為 21.5 億美元，並且我們維持調整後營業利潤率約為 2.25% 的預期。我們估計公司和其他成本為 1.9 億美元。我們對稅率的預期仍為24%。我們對股數的預期也保持不變，仍為 6,580 萬股。

We are reducing our CapEx target by $25 million to $275 million. We are also reducing our estimate for free cash flow by $25 million to $350 million.

我們將資本支出目標削減 2,500 萬美元至 2.75 億美元。我們也將自由現金流預期下調 2,500 萬美元至 3.5 億美元。

I'll turn it back over to John now for some closing comments.

現在我將把話題轉回給約翰，請他發表一些結束語。

We reported another solid quarter and while we are reducing our expectations for 2024 adjusted EPS, we continue to expect meaningful growth in revenue, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS compared to 2023. We continue to benefit from strong long-term growth drivers, and we believe the strength of our people, innovative products and our businesses will continue to drive long-term shareholder value. I'll turn it back to you, Pat, for the Q&A.

我們報告了另一個穩健的季度，雖然我們降低了對 2024 年調整後每股收益的預期，但我們仍然預計與 2023 年相比，收入、調整後營業收入和調整後每股收益將有顯著增長。我們繼續受益於強勁的長期成長動力，我們相信，我們的員工、創新產品和業務的實力將繼續推動長期股東價值。我會把問題轉回給你，帕特，進行問答。

Thanks, John. I'll remind everyone to please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up and please stay disciplined on your follow-up question. After that follow-up, we ask that you rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please begin the Q&A session.

謝謝，約翰。我提醒大家請將你們的問題限制在一個加上一個後續問題，並且請保持對後續問題的紀律。後續跟進後，如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。接線生，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Mircea Dobre, RW Baird.

米爾恰·多布雷、 RW 貝爾德。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

This is actually Stefan Diaz sitting in for Angel. Thanks for taking my question. So, I guess regarding your lower sales outlook, you indicated this was due to softer outlook in access However, if I'm not mistaken, I recall your access backlog give you full coverage for 2024. So maybe if you could give us more color on the exact puts and takes on what drove the revenue decline and whether there were any order cancellations or delays. If you could help us bridge 2024 to your more optimistic outlook for 2025, that would be great as well?

這其實是替 Angel 主持的 Stefan Diaz。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，我猜關於您較低的銷售前景，您表示這是由於訪問前景較弱所致。因此，您能否向我們詳細介紹導致收入下降的具體原因以及是否有訂單取消或延遲的情況。如果您能幫助我們將 2024 年與 2025 年更樂觀的展望聯繫起來，那也很好嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Angel. I'm sorry, Stephan, thank you for the question, and thanks for sitting in for Angel today. When we talk about our backlog, we talk about our backlog and how it stretches into 2025. But in any given quarter, you enter the quarter mostly booked. There's timing to -- the thing that's important to remember there's timing to backlog. Some of our backlog is scheduled to ship next year, some scheduled to ship in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝，安吉爾。對不起，史蒂芬，謝謝你的提問，也謝謝你今天代替安吉爾發言。當我們談論我們的積壓訂單時，我們談論的是我們的積壓訂單以及它如何延續到 2025 年。但在任何一個季度，當你進入該季度時，預訂量大多是第一。有時間限制－重要的是要記住，有時間限制才能積壓。我們的部分積壓訂單計劃於明年發貨，部分計劃於第四季度發貨。

So, in the fourth quarter, we have a lot of our backlog that's already booked with customers, but there's still some orders to come in to fill out the quarter. And so that's some of the change that you saw. I think it's really important, though, to pay attention to backlog versus just order intake mean orders are really important, of course, but I think backlog is a little bit more telling.

因此，在第四季度，我們有許多積壓訂單已經與客戶預訂，但仍有一些訂單需要填滿本季。這就是您所看到的一些變化。我認為，專注於積壓訂單而不是僅僅關注訂單量非常重要，當然，這意味著訂單確實非常重要，但我認為積壓訂單更能說明問題。

And we have a very healthy -- even with low orders in the third quarter, which we expected. We have a very healthy backlog, and I think that, that's indicative of a still relatively healthy access equipment market. Yes, we have had some pushouts in our backlog, pushing things out to '25 and we have had some cancellations and the cancellations make the orders look a little bit lower in Q3. But overall, we still have a healthy backlog at over $2 billion. Typically, in the access equipment world. If we have a 3-month to 6-month backlog, that's considered healthy and normal, and we're at kind of the high end of that right now. So, we feel pretty good about the backlog that we've got.

儘管第三季的訂單量較低，但我們的業績表現非常健康，這也符合我們的預期。我們的積壓訂單非常充足，我認為這表明接入設備市場仍然相對健康。是的，我們的積壓訂單中有一些被推遲了，有些被推遲到了25年，我們也有一些被取消的訂單，這些取消使得第三季的訂單看起來有點低。但總體而言，我們仍有超過 20 億美元的積壓訂單。通常是在接入設備領域。如果我們有 3 個月到 6 個月的積壓訂單，那就被認為是健康和正常的，而我們現在正處於這個水平的高端。因此，我們對現有的積壓訂單感到非常滿意。

Great. Thanks for the color. And then for my follow-up, within vocational, can you talk about the degree of incremental price upside that's embedded in your backlog? And maybe if you could remind us how we should expect that to flow through the P&L within the next couple of years. And then I'll turn it over.

偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。然後，在我的後續問題中，在職業領域，您能談談您的積壓訂單中所包含的增量價格上漲程度嗎？也許您可以提醒我們，我們應該如何預期這將在未來幾年內流入損益表。然後我會把它翻過來。

Yes. This is Mike. We still have strong double-digit price increases in our backlog. That will continue to read through over the next the next few years, really, we're starting for fire trucks, we start getting out into about a 3-year backlog. So that will continue to read through. So, what that means is we expect to continue to see not only growth top line of the business from volume, we continue to expect to see the benefit of price cost.

是的。這是麥克。我們的積壓訂單仍有兩位數的強勁價格上漲。在接下來的幾年裡，我們將繼續執行這個計劃，實際上，我們從消防車開始，開始處理大約 3 年的積壓問題。因此我會繼續讀下去。因此，這意味著我們不僅有望繼續看到業務收入因銷售而實現的成長，還將繼續看到價格成本帶來的好處。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Good morning, everyone. John, nice to hear the update on the improved economics in defense. Can you update us on how you're thinking about the path towards the 9% to 10% margin targets that you have for the business? How big of a step forward do you expect in 2025 and any updated thoughts on the cadence, please?

大家早安。約翰，很高興聽到關於國防經濟狀況改善的最新消息。您能否向我們介紹一下，對於實現 9% 至 10% 的業務利潤率目標，您有何想法？您預計 2025 年將會取得多大的進步？

Yes. I think you'll see a step forward and the short answer is you see a step forward in '25, and you'll see a bigger step forward in 2026. And a lot of this comes from our core defense business and the new contracts that we're getting. We've gone through 40 years with relatively low inflation until 2021. And with fixed price contracts when you have unexpected inflation it kind of disrupts your business as we've seen. So, the good news is that there is -- this business is going to improve dramatically over the next couple of years because we're getting new fixed price contracts that are priced to the realities of today's input costs.

是的。我認為你會看到向前邁出的一步，簡而言之，你會看到在 2025 年向前邁出的一步，而你會看到在 2026 年向前邁出的更大一步。其中很大一部分來自於我們的核心國防業務和我們正在獲得的新合約。到了2021年，我們已經經歷過40年相對較低的通膨率。正如我們所見，當出現意外通貨膨脹時，固定價格合約就會擾亂您的業務。因此，好消息是——這項業務將在未來幾年內大幅改善，因為我們將獲得根據當今投入成本的實際情況定價的新固定價格合約。

So, you think about the big heavies the medium vehicles that we do as well as then layering in some of the combat programs that we have and some international business that we have. That's all really healthy margin for us, and we fully expect this business will recover to its normal kind of near 10% margins. It's going to be a little -- the core defense business will be a little bit smaller because we won't have the core JLTV business for the DoD going forward, but it will be a profitable core defense business of over $1 billion in revenue.

因此，您可以考慮我們生產的大型重型中型車輛，以及我們的一些作戰計劃和一些國際業務。這對我們來說都是非常健康的利潤率，我們完全預期這項業務的利潤率將恢復到正常的接近 10%。核心國防業務規模將會小一些，因為我們未來將不再為國防部提供核心 JLTV 業務，但它將是一個盈利的核心國防業務，收入超過 10 億美元。

And then you layer on top of that the postal contract, the NGDV that's a gigantic program. That's what drives growth in this business into the foreseeable future, and that's also a good margin business for us. So, going forward, that business is going to improve materially over the next couple of years.

然後你在郵政合約的基礎上再分層一層，這就是 NGDV，這是一個龐大的計劃。這就是在可預見的未來推動該業務成長的因素，對我們來說這也是一項利潤豐厚的業務。因此，展望未來幾年，該業務將大幅改善。

Super. And in Access Equipment, you folks have made a lot of operational and process improvements over the past couple of years. When we do see demand cycle weaker, how should we be thinking about decremental margins looks like in the fourth quarter, the implied guidance is about 35% decrementals. I'm wondering if you could just talk about if we do see demand surprise to the downside? How should we think about any potential for improved decrementals versus history, given the process improvements?

極好的。在 Access Equipment 方面，你們在過去幾年中已經做出了許多營運和流程改善。當我們確實看到需求週期減弱時，我們應該如何看待第四季的利潤率下降情況，隱含的指導價格是約 35% 的降幅。我想知道您是否可以談談我們是否確實看到需求意外下滑？考慮到流程的改進，我們該如何看待相對於歷史而言遞減量有所改進的潛力？

Yes. First slide says, I'd say I think from a incremental margin perspective, I would -- it's a little bit easier to look at it on a full year basis. And we're expecting very strong incrementals for Access on a full year basis of around 60% based on our implied guidance. I think when you look specifically on a quarter-to-quarter basis, you can have some nuances. So, looking specifically to this quarter, we did have -- we had a particularly favorable freight material environment in Q3 last year. What we saw Q3 is more favorable than Q2 last year and Q4 of last year.

是的。第一張投影片說，我認為從增量利潤率的角度來看，以全年為基礎來看待它會更容易一些。根據我們的隱含指引，我們預期 Access 全年的增幅非常強勁，約為 60%。我認為，當你具體地按季度觀察時，你會發現一些細微差別。因此，具體來看本季度，我們確實有——去年第三季度我們的貨運材料環境特別有利。我們看到第三季的表現比去年第二季和去年第四季更有利。

So, I think a bit of a tough comp. I think we're not going to get into decrementals for next year as it's still early in our negotiation process. But the bottom line is we expect to continue to deliver solid margins, as we've talked about, even if we see some market softness next year.

因此，我認為這是一場艱難的比賽。我認為我們明年不會進入減產階段，因為我們的談判過程還處於早期階段。但底線是，正如我們已經討論過的，即使明年市場出現一些疲軟，我們也有望繼續實現穩固的利潤率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jerry.

謝謝，傑瑞。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Good morning. Thank you so much. So, my question first question is on the vocational segment, really strong performance. I'm wondering, are you considering raising capacity for this segment? Because it seems like there's very high backlog. You have visibility into demand. So, have you considered raising capacity?

早安.太感謝了。所以，我的第一個問題是關於職業領域的，表現確實很強。我想知道您是否考慮提高該部分的產能？因為看起來積壓的訂單量非常大。您可以了解需求。那麼，您是否考慮過提高容量？

Yes, Tami, that's -- it's a great question, and it's a huge focus area for us. So, I think what you're going to see in our existing facilities, particularly on the fire and refuse and recycling sites, we are in the process of adding capacity. We have our new, Murphysboro, Tennessee Facility where we ramping up the electric refuse and recycling vehicles. We're also using that for some fabrication activities for the broader segment. My expectation is that we're going to continue in our existing facilities to continue to increase that capacity through some capital investments and so on. And we'll continue to look at additional capacity through additional facilities over time. But that is clearly going to be a focused area. We expect that we're going to see top line growth from that over the next several years.

是的，塔米，這是一個很好的問題，也是我們關注的一個重點領域。所以，我想您將看到，在我們現有的設施中，特別是在火災、垃圾和回收站，我們正在增加產能。我們在田納西州墨菲斯伯勒擁有新的工廠，我們在這裡增加電動垃圾和回收車輛。我們也將其用於更廣泛領域的一些製造活動。我的期望是，我們將繼續在現有設施上透過一些資本投資等來持續提高產能。並且，我們會隨著時間的推移，繼續尋求透過增加設施來增加產能。但這顯然將成為重點領域。我們預計，未來幾年我們將看到營收成長。

Got it. That's helpful. And then one more question on AeroTech. It's been 1 year. What are some of the things that pleasantly surprised you versus your expectations when you bought it about a year ago?

知道了。這很有幫助。還有一個關於 AeroTech 的問題。已經一年了。當您大約一年前購買它時，有哪些東西超出了您的預期，令您感到驚喜？

Yes, Tami, there's a lot to like about AeroTech. We certainly acquired it because of the close adjacencies, particularly from a technology standpoint, you look at electrification, autonomy, connected intelligent products, a lot of overlap with our other company-wide innovation initiatives. So great synergies on that front, and I think that's going to allow us to expedite across the company, some of those efforts.

是的，塔米，AeroTech 有很多值得欣賞的地方。我們之所以收購它是因為我們之間的緊密聯繫，特別是從技術角度來看，電氣化、自動化、互聯智慧產品與我們公司範圍內的其他創新計劃有很多重疊。因此，在這方面的協同效應非常好，我認為這將使我們能夠在全公司範圍內加快一些工作的發展。

I would say the synergies between our -- between -- from a commercial standpoint between our businesses has been very positive as well. We -- as John mentioned in the prepared remarks, we had JLG products, ground support products as well as our ARC vehicles at the Lisbon ground support equipment show a lot of overlap in our customers and so it's just been -- and of course, the industry dynamics are very strong. So, we continue to expect to see profitable growth in that business.

我想說，從商業角度來看，我們之間的業務綜效也非常正面。正如約翰在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們的 JLG 產品、地面支援產品以及里斯本地面支援設備的 ARC 車輛在我們的客戶中有很多重疊，所以當然，行業動態非常強勁。因此，我們繼續期待該業務實現獲利成長。

Yes, I'll just make one further comment, Tami. When we -- after we acquired the business, we really got to know the customers better and the relationship that AeroTech and AeroTech people have with the customers. And it's really strong. These are household names, Delta, United, Federal Express, and others.

是的，我只想再說一句，塔米。在我們收購這項業務後，我們真正更了解了客戶以及 AeroTech 和 AeroTech 員工與客戶之間的關係。而且它確實很強大。這些是家喻戶曉的品牌，如達美航空、聯合航空、聯邦快遞等。

And they really are positive about our ability to continue to innovate the product with Mike talked about it, electrification and autonomous functionality because that drives better performance for them. And that's exactly what our business model is, innovation around technology to improve productivity and improve safety for our customers and for the people that are doing the tough work. So, it just continues to be a really strong fit for what we do.

他們對於我們繼續創新產品的能力非常有信心，正如麥克所說的那樣，電氣化和自動化功能可以為他們帶來更好的性能。這正是我們的商業模式，圍繞著科技進行創新，以提高生產力，並為我們的客戶和從事艱苦工作的人們提高安全性。所以，它仍然與我們所做的工作非常契合。

Wonderful. Thank you, so much.

精彩的。太感謝了。

Thanks, Tami.

謝謝，塔米。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

花旗集團的凱爾·孟格斯（Kyle Menges）。

Good morning, guys. I was hoping if you could just talk a little bit more on what you're seeing in the access market and maybe if you could kind of bifurcate the market between some of the larger rental customers versus the smaller, more local players and just really which customers you're seeing the most, I guess, demand softness and any push outs into 2025? Is it just that it's more from the big rental guys or some of the smaller players?

大家早安。我希望您能再多談談您在接入市場看到的情況，並且您是否可以將市場分為一些較大的租賃客戶和較小的、更本地化的參與者，以及您真正看到最多的客戶，我猜，要求柔軟度和任何推遲到 2025 年？這是否更多地來自大型租賃公司或一些較小的參與者？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So, I try to frame this. We've just come through a period the last few years of really, really strong demand. and we're all aware of that. You're aware of that. And I think we're experiencing right now a market that's kind of normalizing. And we've talked about our customers going back to a more normal seasonal pattern where they're planning in Q4 and Q1 for what's going to happen in 2025. And they know that lead times are back to normal. I talk about our backlog being 3 months to 6 months, which is kind of where it sits right now, and that's a healthy backlog.

是的。謝謝你的提問。因此，我嘗試建立這個框架。過去幾年，我們剛經歷了需求非常強勁的時期。我們都知道這一點。你知道這個。我認為我們現在正經歷一種正常化的市場。我們已經討論過客戶恢復到更正常的季節性模式，他們計劃在第四季和第一季規劃 2025 年的計畫。他們知道交貨時間已恢復正常。我說我們的積壓訂單量為 3 個月到 6 個月，這是目前的情況，這是一個健康的積壓訂單量。

But I want to stress, we really believe that -- and our customers believe you hear the public customers that we serve talk about this -- we believe the long-term drivers remain intact. We talk about these significant infrastructure investments, mega projects, data centers. We can't build enough data centers. We can't build enough power generation, there's also still aged fleets in many categories that we provide. All those are really good things.

但我想強調的是，我們確實相信——我們的客戶也相信，你聽到我們服務的公眾客戶談論這一點——我們相信長期驅動力依然完好無損。我們討論這些重大的基礎設施投資、大型專案和資料中心。我們無法建造足夠的資料中心。我們無法建造足夠的發電設施，我們提供的許多類別的發電設備仍然老化。所有這些都是真正好的事情。

Now we do realize that there is some pressure right now with regard to nonresidential construction, and that's kind of private construction mainly is what we're talking about. High interest rates, I think have been the main driver of some concern there. So that's what's causing a little bit of pressure. We don't think that '25 is going to be any kind of significant downturn. We just think the market is going to be a bit soft. We'll see healthy conditions in the mega projects. We'll see some softness probably in private construction. And then we expect, after a short-term period, it will continue to grow again. So, our -- and our outlook through that calls for us to be able to deliver strong, resilient margins.

現在我們確實意識到目前非住宅建築方面存在一些壓力，我們主要談論的是私人建築。我認為，高利率是引發部分擔憂的主要原因。所以這就是造成一點壓力的原因。我們認為 25 年不會有任何嚴重的衰退。我們只是認為市場將會有些疲軟。我們將看到大型項目的健康狀況。我們可能會看到私人建築業出現一些疲軟。然後我們預計，經過一段短期時期後，它將再次繼續增長。因此，我們的展望要求我們能夠實現強勁、有彈性的利潤率。

So, talking about the big nationals versus the independents. I don't know if it's a national versus independent. I think when you have an independent that is exposed to a lot of private construction, they might be feeling it a little bit more than an independent also participate in these big megaprojects that are independent that is exposed to mega projects where they operate. So, I think the difference is, is it private nonres versus kind of these big trends we're seeing.

因此，談論的是大國民黨與獨立黨之間的鬥爭。我不知道這是否是全國性的還是獨立的。我認為，當獨立企業接觸大量私人建設項目時，他們可能會比那些也參與這些大型項目的獨立企業感受到更多的壓力，這些獨立企業接觸過他們經營的大型項目。因此，我認為差異在於，它是私人非資源還是我們所看到的這些大趨勢。

That's helpful. And then I was curious -- I guess I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about just how the NGDV ramp-up is going more so in the near term. I did notice it seems like NGDV deliveries actually went down a bit sequentially in the quarter. So, I understand that might just be a seasonality thing, probably you shouldn't read into that too much, but I love to hear just how it's going so far?

這很有幫助。然後我很好奇——我想我希望你能多談談 NGDV 在短期內的成長情況。我確實注意到 NGDV 交付量在本季度實際上有所下降。所以，我明白這可能只是季節性的事情，也許你不應該過度解讀這一點，但我很想聽聽目前的情況如何？

You shouldn't read into those deliveries at all. Actually, deliveries went up, not down. It's just a cost-to-cost accounting method that drove that. That's all it was. Deliveries are going up. This -- I'll start with, this is a -- we're really happy with where we are. We work really closely with the postal service. The carriers are delighted with the vehicles that they're using today to deliver ecommerce and mail that are on the streets and with the deliveries that we've made. This is a revolutionary vehicle, incredible performance, safety vehicles, ease-of-use, superior ergonomics it's really unlike any delivery vehicle that's out there.

你根本不應該解讀這些傳遞的訊息。事實上，交付量上升了，而不是下降了。這只是一種成本會計方法所導致的。就是這樣。交付量正在上升。首先，我們對目前的狀況非常滿意。我們與郵政服務部門保持密切的合作。郵差們對他們如今在街上用來運送電子商務和郵件的車輛以及我們所做的運送感到非常滿意。這是一款革命性的車輛，具有令人難以置信的性能、安全性、易於使用、卓越的人體工學，與現有的任何運輸車輛都不同。

So, we're today ramping up production. When you go through -- you take a brand-new vehicle to market, we believe, together with the postal service that a prudent production schedule is better than trying to start by sprinting. So, we're ramping up today. We'll be at full production throughout 2025 as we go through 2025. We -- again, this will more than offset in 2025, anything we lose from the JLTV contract going away. It's a great program, long-term program, good for a lot of reasons. Thanks, Kyle.

因此，我們今天正在提高產量。當您將一輛全新的車輛推向市場時，我們和郵政服務部門都認為，審慎的生產計劃比倉促衝刺要好。因此，我們今天要加大力度。我們將在 2025 年全面投入生產。我們 — — 再說一次，到 2025 年，這將足以彌補我們因 JLTV 合約終止而遭受的任何損失。這是一個很棒的計劃，一個長期的計劃，出於很多原因它都是好的。謝謝，凱爾。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist Securities。

Good morning. I guess two questions. One, Mike, on the free cash flow, we've been lowering the free cash flow guide throughout the year, understanding some of it's the guidance cut this quarter, but it still implies a pretty big ramp to achieve your free cash flow guidance for 2024 in the fourth quarter. So, if you could just help us understand what's going on there. And then understanding you don't want to talk about decrementals for 2025 on access being sort of said your -- answer implied you think we'll have decrementals in 2025 based on an earlier question, which means you're saying now that sales are going to be down for access equipment.

早安.我想有兩個問題。首先，麥克，關於自由現金流，我們全年都在下調自由現金流指引，理解其中一些是本季度的指引下調，但這仍然意味著在第四季度實現 2024 年自由現金流指引有一個相當大的提升。所以，如果你能幫助我們了解那裡發生的事情的話。然後了解到您不想談論 2025 年接入方面的遞減，您的回答暗示您認為根據先前的問題，2025 年接入方面的遞減，這意味著您現在說接入設備的銷售額將會下降。

So, I guess one of the concerns that are out there is just pricing, that pricing starts to go negative. So, can you give any color on how you're thinking about pricing? Or can we assume sort of a normalized 25% decremental margin? Like what would be the reason why we wouldn't be able to achieve that if sales are down?

所以，我猜人們擔心的問題之一就是定價，定價開始變成負值。那麼，您能透露一下您對定價的看法嗎？或者我們可以假設某種標準化的 25% 遞減幅度嗎？例如，如果銷售額下降，我們無法實現這一目標的原因是什麼？

Sure. Starting with cash flow. Big -- there's a number of big items. Obviously, we had another big shipping quarter. Q4 is typically implied the revenue is lower. So, you get a natural bleed-off of working capital, certainly some inventory timing specifically in our Defense segment, there can be big timing impacts of when the acceptance process of vehicles takes place, and that really shifts from the unbilled receivables to the billed receivables. So, we see a big impact and benefit of those unbilled receivables coming down in the fourth quarter. Those are really the biggest items. I think next -- we're not calling next year kind of shifting to the -- your other question. So, I think ultimately, Obviously, the market is a little bit softer right now that could continue.

當然。從現金流開始。大——有很多大件物品。顯然，我們又迎來了一個新的航運旺季。Q4 通常意味著收入較低。因此，您會自然而然地看到營運資金的流失，當然，在我們的國防部門中，一些庫存時間肯定會受到車輛驗收過程的時間影響，而這實際上從未開票應收賬款轉移到已開票應收賬款。因此，我們看到第四季未開立應收帳款下降將帶來巨大的影響和好處。這些確實是最大的物品。我認為接下來——我們不是指明年——而是轉向——您的另一個問題。因此，我認為最終，顯然目前市場略顯疲軟，這種情況可能會持續下去。

So -- but again, we're going to I think the key is we want to get in a little bit further into the negotiations with customers, the mix and the volume and all those elements. But I think importantly, we think it's going to be a solid year next year with solid margins.

所以 — — 但同樣，我認為關鍵是我們希望進一步與客戶進行談判，包括產品組合、數量以及所有這些要素。但我認為重要的是，我們認為明年將是穩健的一年，利潤率也將穩健。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jamie.

謝謝，傑米。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·費雪。

Thanks, good morning. So, the vocational bookings and book-to-bill was certainly a bright spot. Wondering how to think about the order trajectory and vocational over the next quarters. Is there any visibility you have on that? And how lumpy do you think it might be on an ongoing basis?

謝謝，早安。因此，職業預訂和訂單出貨無疑是一個亮點。想知道如何看待未來幾季的訂單軌跡和職業。您對此有什麼看法嗎？您認為從長遠來看，這種波動會有多大？

Yes, I'd say from a backlog perspective, the backlog continues to grow in the business. So, I'd kind of revert back to my earlier comments to Tami that we're highly focused on throughput -- our -- the market dynamics in each of our business remains strong. I think if you look at vocational, particularly when you look at AeroTech and McNeilus the -- you can have some lumpiness in the orders as we're booking large national account orders and sort of in blocks at times, but we expect demand to remain very strong going forward. And I think that quarter-toquarter, there can be some quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.

是的，我想從積壓訂單的角度來看，業務中的積壓訂單持續成長。因此，我想回到我之前對塔米的評論，我們高度關注吞吐量——我們每個業務的市場動態仍然強勁。我認為，如果你看一下職業，特別是當你看看 AeroTech 和 McNeilus 時，你可能會發現訂單有些不均勻，因為我們正在預訂大量國家帳戶訂單，有時會分批預訂，但我們預計未來需求將保持強勁。我認為，季度間可能會出現一些波動。

Yes. I think, Steve, one thing to note about these vocational markets that we're in, they are resilient markets, the airport market, for example, where AeroTech is in some of our other business, that will continue and is projected by pretty much every third party that measures it to continue to grow into the future because of shortage of capacity in the airport world. And fire truck would be the same. These are resilient markets, not very cyclical and that's one of the reasons that we think this is a great place for us to be in this segment.

是的。史蒂夫，我認為，關於我們所在的這些職業市場，有一點需要注意，它們是具有彈性的市場，例如機場市場，AeroTech 在該市場從事我們的其他一些業務，由於機場領域的容量短缺，該市場將繼續增長，並且幾乎所有第三方衡量機構都預測該市場將繼續增長。消防車也一樣。這些都是有彈性的市場，週期性不強，這也是我們認為我們適合進入該領域的原因之一。

Great. And just a follow-up. So obviously, it sounds like vocational doing very well. You've already talked a bit about access in '25 being still having a relatively healthy backlog and overall reasonable market and defense, you have NGDV ramping. So, I guess as we think about your prior expectations on earnings per share for 2025, that range that you had, I mean, should we be assuming that you're still thinking at the moment that, that range is still broadly appropriate?

偉大的。這只是後續行動。顯然，這聽起來像是職業表現非常好。您已經談到了 25 年的訪問情況，仍然擁有相對健康的積壓和整體合理的市場和防禦，並且 NGDV 正在增加。因此，我想，當我們考慮您先前對 2025 年每股盈餘的預期時，您當時所設定的那個範圍，我的意思是，我們是否應該假設您現在仍然認為該範圍仍然大致合適？

Well, we're already in that range today. So, I'll start there. I can't guide for 2025 at this point in time. We'll be able to -- as we go through, a lot of work this quarter, particularly with our access customers, we'll be able to give much better guidance in January as to where we think '25 is actually going to be. But remember, we're already in '24 where we said we'd be in '25.

嗯，我們今天已經處於這個範圍內了。因此，我就從那裡開始。目前我還無法為 2025 年做出指導。隨著本季大量工作的完成，特別是針對我們的接入客戶，我們將能夠在 1 月份就我們認為 25 年的實際水平提供更好的指導。但請記住，我們已經進入了24年，而我們說過我們會進入25年。

Thanks, and thanks to you.

謝謝，也謝謝你。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just -- well, first of all, Mike, congrats on your new role. I'm sure you're going to miss hosting these calls. So...

是的。謝謝。早安.也許只是——好吧，首先，麥克，恭喜你獲得新的角色。我確信您將會懷念主持這些電話會議。所以...

I still get a mic, Tim, don’t worry about it.

我還有一個麥克風，提姆，別擔心。

There you go. The -- just on access, the -- just kind of the market, obviously, we'll see what it gives you for next year. But just as you think about, obviously, customer and geographic and product mix can play an important role in terms of the makeup of the margins. At this point today, do you envision just if you kind of simplify it between aerials and telehandlers? Do you anticipate again, not making a market call? But just from a product standpoint, much of a change in terms of -- or the shift in the complexion of whatever those -- that revenue base may look like? I guess I'll start with that one.

就這樣。就訪問權而言，就市場而言，顯然，我們會看看明年它會為你帶來什麼。但正如您所想的，顯然，客戶、地理和產品組合在利潤組成方面可以發揮重要作用。今天此時此刻，您是否設想過，是否可以簡化高空作業車和伸縮臂叉裝機之間的操作？您是否再次預期，而不進行市場預測？但是僅從產品的角度來看，收入基礎方面會發生很大的變化（或者說收入基礎的性質會發生怎樣的變化）？我想我應該從那一個開始。

I would say, in general, telehandlers have been strong, but I think it's early still that I think the mix will continue to evolve as we get into next year. So, I think it's a little bit too early to call exactly what the dynamics of each one of those buckets is going to be...

我想說，總體而言，伸縮臂叉裝機表現強勁，但我認為現在還為時過早，我認為隨著進入明年，這種組合將繼續發展。因此，我認為現在準確預測每個儲存桶的動態還為時過早...

Yes. I was going to emphasize the same thing, Tim. Telehandlers has been particularly strong. Although booms are strong as well. But telehandlers been particularly strong. I mentioned that because we're building new capacity for telehandlers, and we're already in production. We'll continue to improve that or increase that production in 2025. And we are not slowing down on that by any stretch. We see lots of demand there. We don't have enough capacity today to meet the demand of the telehandler market. And we see new -- we talk about new end markets opening up like ag and that's real. And that just continues to give us the confidence that that's a good place to be. It's hard to pinpoint today if there's going to be any kind of material mix shift, though, between one product and another in 2025.

是的。我本來要強調同樣的事情，提姆。伸縮臂堆高機 (Telehandlers) 的表現尤其強勁。儘管繁榮也很強勁。但伸縮臂叉裝機的表現尤其強勁。我提到這一點是因為我們正在建造伸縮臂叉裝機的新產能，而我們已經投入生產了。我們將在 2025 年繼續改進或提高產量。我們絕不會放慢這一步伐。我們看到那裡有很多需求。我們目前的產能不足以滿足伸縮臂叉裝機市場的需求。我們看到了新的——我們談論像農業這樣的新終端市場的開放，這是真實的。這讓我們更有信心，這是一個好地方。然而，現在很難確定到 2025 年一種產品和另一種產品之間是否會發生任何類型的材料組合轉變。

Okay. And as my follow-up because I know Pat's counting. But the I'll ask the same question, John. I think I asked you that the quarter when you announced that telehandler capacity expansion. Is there an update? And do you have a big one specific customer that you've call out your filings for years in terms of a contract that is due to expire here soon. Any update on that in terms of to the extent there's a potential revenue loss associated with that? Or -- just maybe an update on that?

好的。作為我的後續行動，因為我知道帕特在數數。但是我會問同樣的問題，約翰。我想我問過您那個季度宣布伸縮臂叉裝機產能擴張的情況。有更新嗎？您是否有一個特定的大客戶，您已經向其提交了多年合約申請，但該合約即將到期。關於這可能造成的收入損失的程度，有任何最新消息嗎？或者 —— 也許只是對此進行更新？

Yes. I mean I'll comment on it. We've got -- we're talking about Cat. Tim didn't mention it, but I'll mention it. I mean Cat's a great partner of ours. They have been for many years. they'll be a good partner of ours going forward as well. We've got a good relationship with them. Sure, the structure of our partnership with Cat is changing. But I guess what I can say is that we'll continue to support Cat and Cat dealers with JLG equipment going forward. It's got great recognition and acceptance in the market. And that I think you'll continue to see it there.

是的。我的意思是我會對此發表評論。我們正在談論 Cat。蒂姆沒有提到這一點，但我會提到這一點。我的意思是 Cat 是我們很棒的合作夥伴。他們已經存在很多年了。他們今後也將成為我們的好夥伴。我們與他們的關係很好。當然，我們與 Cat 的合作關係結構正在改變。但我想我可以說的是，我們將繼續為 Cat 和 Cat 經銷商提供 JLG 設備支援。得到了市場的高度認可和接受。我認為你會繼續在那裡看到它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mig Dobre, R.W. Baird.

米格·多布雷、R.W.貝爾德。

Good morning. Thanks for coming back to me. just to sort of follow up here on the Access discussion. I guess understanding that you're not guiding for '25, but you have added capacity in the segment and things seem to be turning softer. So, I guess John, how do you approach next year here? What are some of the things that you can do to manage the cost basis? Should we maybe get ready for some restructuring here? Or do you have enough levers to kind of deal with potentially lower volumes not meeting such action?

早安.謝謝你回到我身邊。只是為了跟進一下有關 Access 的討論。我猜你沒有為25年做指引，但你在這個領域增加了產能，而且情況似乎正在變得疲軟。那麼，我想約翰，你對明年有什麼打算呢？您可以做哪些事情來管理成本基礎？我們是不是應該為這裡的一些重組做好準備？或者您有足夠的手段來應對可能因交易量較低而無法滿足此類行動的情況？

Yes. So Mig, thank you for this question. Sorry, you got cut off somehow when we started the call, I apologize for that.

是的。所以 Mig，謝謝你提出這個問題。抱歉，我們剛開始通話就被切斷了，對此我深表歉意。

It was my fault. Yes.

是我的錯。是的。

Okay. So, thanks for the question. So, we've been working on our resilience for a while. It's not like, "Oh, my god, we got to start working on resilience. This has been going on for a while. And really, it starts in our manufacturing plants and how flexible we can be under different demand environments with regard to our fixed cost. So, there's a lot that goes into that. We've done a lot of work on that. We also -- as we go into these -- continue to improve the resilience of the business.

好的。感謝您的提問。因此，我們一直在努力提高我們的復原力。這並不是說，「哦，天哪，我們必須開始致力於復原力。這種情況已經持續了一段時間了。事實上，它始於我們的製造工廠，以及我們在不同需求環境下對固定成本的靈活性。因此，這其中涉及很多內容。我們在這方面做了很多工作。隨著我們深入這些領域，我們也將繼續提高業務的彈性。

We do a lot of work with our aftermarket, our recurring revenue streams. So, we've made investments in the past few years on our ability to distribute and expand our aftermarket parts business, and we think that, that will continue to help us as we continue to manage that and grow that going forward.

我們在售後市場和經常性收入來源方面做了很多工作。因此，過去幾年來，我們對分銷和擴展售後零件業務的能力進行了投資，我們認為，這將繼續幫助我們繼續管理並在未來實現成長。

The other thing that we'll do, as I've talked about 2025, we look at the outlook over a 5-year horizon. Our plans go out 5 years, and these are detailed plans. And we feel great about the next 5 years. We think '25 is a bit of a soft period as we continue on that growth curve. So, we may see some sales decline, although we don't think it's going to be big, but we think there'll be some sales decline. We have some other levers, of course, with regard to cost reduction work that we do. I wouldn't call it significant restructuring, but we have material cost reduction initiatives, some that we'll continue to work on to mitigate anything that might be unfavorable in 2025. So -- there's a lot of work that we've been doing for a while on the resiliency of this business.

我們要做的另一件事是，正如我談到 2025 年時所說，我們將展望未來 5 年的前景。我們的計劃是五年計劃，這些都是詳細計劃。我們對未來五年充滿信心。我們認為，隨著我們繼續保持這一成長曲線，25年將是一個較為疲軟的時期。因此，我們可能會看到一些銷售額下降，儘管我們認為下降幅度不會很大，但我們認為銷售額會下降。當然，在降低成本方面，我們還有其他一些手段。我不會稱之為重大重組，但我們確實採取了重大成本削減舉措，其中一些舉措我們將繼續努力，以減輕 2025 年可能出現的不利影響。所以，我們在提高這項業務的彈性方面已經做了大量工作。

Understood. Then my follow-up back to refuse collection. You talked about the success you're having with Volterra -- and I guess 2 questions. I'm curious as to whether or not you having this proprietary chassis represents a differentiator and competitive advantage. And if that's the case, maybe you can kind of help us understand why -- and then where is the market trending here, side-loaders, versus front loaders? Obviously, you have both of those products, but I'm curious as to kind of how you see demand evolving in that space?

明白了。然後我跟進回去拒絕收集。您談到了您在 Volterra 所取得的成功——我想有兩個問題。我很好奇，擁有這種專有底盤是否代表著差異化和競爭優勢。如果確實如此，也許您可以幫助我們了解原因——那麼這裡的市場趨勢是什麼，是側裝式洗衣機，還是前裝式洗衣機？顯然，你們擁有這兩種產品，但我很好奇，你們如何看待該領域的需求發展？

Sure. First of all, with the Volterra ZSL that we do believe that the chassis gives us a strategic advantage. And that's what that is or a competitive advantage. And what that is, is because it's fully integrated. So, if you think about traditionally a refuse collection vehicle, it's sort of a separate body and chassis.

當然。首先，我們確實相信 Volterra ZSL 的底盤能為我們帶來戰略優勢。這就是競爭優勢。這是因為它是完全整合的。因此，如果你考慮傳統的垃圾收集車，它就是一種獨立的車身和底盤。

So, you're limited in the level that you can integrate create those two pieces of the chassis together with a fully integrated unit, very much like a pure Spire truck, you really have more advantages that you can add safety features to the vehicle that are all fully connected ultimately, so safety productivity benefits, ease of entry into the cab and exit. It just makes the entire driver experience more positive. Of course, ultimately with the electrification benefits of it, our customers are seeing that they have an advantage from a total cost of ownership perspective as well.

因此，您在整合方面受到限制，可以將兩部分底盤整合到一個完全整合的單元中，非常像純粹的 Spire 卡車，您確實可以獲得更多優勢，可以為車輛添加最終完全連接的安全功能，從而提高安全性和生產效率，方便進出駕駛室。這只會讓整個駕駛體驗更加積極。當然，最終憑藉電氣化帶來的優勢，我們的客戶也發現他們從整體擁有成本的角度而言具有優勢。

So that's what we see. So, we believe that this is going to be a decade-long trend that as fleets continue to electrify. In terms of where the market demand is. Frankly, the market is pretty strong across the board. As we're looking at capacity, we see capacity opportunities both on size and fronts. So that both are going to be a focus, and we see strength in both of them right now.

這就是我們所看到的。因此，我們相信，隨著車隊繼續電氣化，這將成為一個持續十年的趨勢。就市場需求而言。坦白說，整體市場表現相當強勁。當我們審視產能時，我們看到了規模和方面的產能機會。因此，兩者都將成為焦點，我們現在看到它們各自的優勢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mig.

謝謝，米格。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德、伯恩斯坦。

So, my first question is on pricing and access. So first of all, what was price realization in the third quarter? And then secondly, I recognize that you guys are going through negotiations for '25. But at least in terms of what's in backlog right now, how do you expect price and, I guess, price cost to evolve at least through the first half of '25 based on looking backlog?

所以，我的第一個問題是關於定價和訪問。那麼首先，第三季的價格實現情況如何？其次，我知道你們正在就 25 年進行談判。但至少就目前積壓的訂單而言，根據積壓訂單，您預計價格以及價格成本至少在 25 年上半年會如何變動？

Yes. So ultimately, from a price cost perspective, again, we -- I think ultimately, we had a more challenging year-over-year comp that we expect to be quite price cost positive on the year. You see that, that's really what's driving that 60% incremental on a full year basis. Again, I think the - - as we look to next year, again, it's going to come -- there's some backlog there. Obviously, that's going to carry into next year. But we're very early in our negotiations and so on. So that mix really matters, both product and regional as well as customers. So, I think it's -- again, we're not going to speculate at this point on incrementals or decrementals for next year. Again, going back to, we expect that the market's softer, we'll continue to deliver solid margins in that business.

是的。因此，最終從價格成本的角度來看，我認為最終我們的同比業績更具挑戰性，我們預計今年的價格成本將相當積極。你看，這才是全年增量達到 60% 的真正原因。再說一遍，我認為——當我們展望明年時，它將會到來——那裡會有一些積壓。顯然，這種情況會延續到明年。但是我們的談判才剛開始。因此，產品、區域和客戶的組合確實很重要。所以，我認為——再說一次，我們現在不會對明年的增量或減量進行猜測。再次回顧，我們預計市場將會疲軟，但我們將繼續在該業務中實現穩固的利潤率。

Okay. That's fair. And then just second, on the capacity additions in access. Just trying to think through like the kidneys of the ramp-up as we go into 2025 and then is there any absorption to consider given that it may take a little time for factory to fill up and then finally, I just wanted to confirm, I think in the past, you talked about like a 25% increase in capacity. I just want to make sure that's still the plan?

好的。這很公平。其次，關於訪問容量的增加。只是想仔細思考一下，當我們進入 2025 年時，產能提升的腎臟是什麼，然後是否有任何吸收需要考慮，因為工廠可能需要一點時間才能填滿，最後，我只是想確認一下，我想在過去，你談到過產能增加 25%。我只是想確認這仍然是計劃嗎？

So, you're talking about Jefferson City, where we're expanding our telehandler capacity. There's a little bit of cost in the first part of '25 on start-up costs in that facility. But as we get to the second half of the year, you'll start seeing some absorption benefits and things and it will be at full production by -- at some point in the second half of next year. So, this is -- it's a good driver of both sales and margin improvement for the company as it gets to its full production level.

您說的是傑斐遜城，我們正在那裡擴大我們的伸縮臂叉裝機的產能。在 25 年上半年，該設施的啟動成本有點高。但隨著我們進入今年下半年，你會開始看到一些吸收效益和其他事情，它將在明年下半年的某個時候全面投入生產。因此，當公司達到全面生產水準時，這將有利於促進公司的銷售和利潤率的提高。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thanks, Chad.

謝謝，乍得。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Steve Barger。

Another Volterra question. You got a nice call out on the Republic call yesterday. My question is, as you introduce more electric offerings, are those supply chains fully built out from a capacity standpoint -- or are there potential challenges you'll face if the uptake rate is better than you expected?

另一個 Volterra 問題。您昨天在共和國電話中接到了很好的來電。我的問題是，當您推出更多電動產品時，從產能的角度來看，這些供應鏈是否完全建成 - 或者如果吸收率好於預期，您是否會面臨潛在的挑戰？

Yes. I think ultimately, from a ramp-up perspective, supply chain as one of the top focus areas. And I think -- as with many of our large programs, we have a very -- we have a very regimented approach as we as we increase the capacity and the throughput in the facilities. And so, we're very much in lock stuff with our supply chain on the product. A lot of overlap and a lot of the components with other suppliers we have throughout the company. So, we -- at this point, we feel good about it. And again, this is going to be something, Steve, that we're going to be ramping this up. We're going to continue to see growth in demand on this really over the next 5 years to 10 years that this is going to be a long-term play as fleets are replaced.

是的。我認為，從最終的成長角度來看，供應鏈是重點關注的領域之一。我認為 — — 與我們的許多大型項目一樣，我們在增加設施的容量和吞吐量時採取了非常 — — 我們採取了非常有條理的方法。所以，我們非常重視產品供應鏈。我們與公司內其他供應商有許多重疊之處，而且許多零件也都有重疊。所以，我們—目前，我們對此感覺很好。再說一次，史蒂夫，這是一件我們會加強的事情。未來 5 至 10 年，我們將繼續看到對這方面的需求成長，隨著船隊的更新，這將是一個長期趨勢。

Yes. But also, just to mention, in general, it's still a relatively new market, electrification of vehicles, whether they're big commercial vehicles like ours or their passenger cars still a relatively new industry. So, we're constantly working with the supply chain because it's still new in terms of whether battery cells, battery modules, battery packaging and then you've got edrives and lots of other components. And we're in constant work with our supply base as it continues to grow and develop. And we feel very optimistic about it because in our commercial markets, we are able to provide an economic benefit for the most part for our customers.

是的。但是，順便說一下，總的來說，這仍然是一個相對較新的市場，汽車電氣化，無論是像我們這樣的大型商用車還是乘用車，仍然是一個相對較新的行業。因此，我們一直在與供應鏈合作，因為無論是電池單元、電池模組、電池包裝，還是電力驅動器和許多其他組件，它都還很新。隨著供應基地的不斷壯大與發展，我們也不斷與其合作。我們對此感到非常樂觀，因為在我們的商業市場中，我們能夠為客戶提供大部分經濟利益。

They can see total cost of ownership improvement because their productivity is better, the functionality of the vehicle is better the ways we can integrate it with autonomous functionality and its responsiveness is better. That's all really good economic improvements in commercial markets, different from passenger cars versus the commercial market space that we're in. So, we feel this is going to be a -- we don't feel like someone's going to flip the switch and all of a sudden, everything we're going to be building is electric.

他們可以看到整體擁有成本的改善，因為他們的生產力更高，車輛的功能性更好，我們可以將其與自主功能相結合的方式更好，並且它的響應能力也更好。這對商業市場來說都是非常好的經濟改善，不同於乘用車與我們所處的商業市場空間。所以，我們覺得這將是——我們不覺得有人會按下開關，然後突然間，我們要建造的一切都變成了電動的。

We don't see that happening. We just see nice growth in electrified product in several of our end markets over the next 10, maybe even 20 years. Remember, electric propulsion is a more efficient form of propulsion than diesel propulsion is. So, it's not going to shift overnight. But because it's economically viable now, it will shift over a long period of time and will help the supply chain develop together with us as we go through that period, but a very positive story for sure.

我們沒有看到這種情況發生。我們看到，未來 10 年，甚至 20 年，我們的多個終端市場中的電氣化產品將實現良好的成長。請記住，電力推進是一種比柴油推進更有效率的推進形式。所以，它不會在一夜之間改變。但由於它現在在經濟上是可行的，它將在很長一段時間內發生變化，並將幫助供應鏈在我們度過這段時期時與我們一起發展，但這肯定是一個非常積極的故事。

Thanks for that, John. And just for my follow-up, Mike, you noted the 3-year backlog in fire being really long, and you've talked about how strong prices in backlog. If input costs were to come down for some reason, is that pricing locked in? Or is there a potential for adjustment?

謝謝你，約翰。麥克，只是為了跟進，你注意到 3 年的火災積壓時間確實很長，而且你還談到了積壓價格的強勁勢頭。如果因為某些原因投入成本下降，那麼定價是否就固定了？或者說有調整的可能嗎？

The pricing is locked in.

價格已鎖定。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

So, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back to Pat Davidson for any closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權交還給帕特·戴維森，請他發表最後評論。

Thanks, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you at upcoming conferences and trade shows where we will be showcasing our technology. In particular, we're displaying at the CES show in Las Vegas in early January. We are proud of the innovation and technology we bring to the market at Oshkosh, and we'll be showing these capabilities at the Las Vegas Convention Center. We hope you will consider making that trip and visiting us.

謝謝大家今天的參與。我們期待在即將舉行的會議和貿易展會上與您交談，我們將在會議上展示我們的技術。特別是，我們將於 1 月初在拉斯維加斯舉行的 CES 展會上展示。我們為奧什科甚市場帶來的創新和技術感到自豪，我們將在拉斯維加斯會議中心展示這些能力。我們希望您能考慮來拜訪我們。

Please reach out if you have any follow-up questions, and have a great day.

如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡我們，祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。再次感謝您的參與。