Oshkosh Corp (OSK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2023 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加奧什科甚公司 2023 財年第四季和全年業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人帕特戴維森 (Pat Davidson)，他是奧什科甚公司 (Oshkosh Corporation) 投資者關係高級副總裁。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2023 年第四季和全年業績。新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 oshkoshcorp.com 上取得。今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議期間使用的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表，也可以在我們的網站上取得。音訊重播和幻燈片演示將在我們的網站上提供約 12 個月。現在請參閱該簡報的幻燈片 2。

Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update those -- these forward-looking statements which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

我們接下來的評論，包括對您問題的回答，包含我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的風險。這些風險包括我們今天早上向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中所述的事項。我們不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些前瞻性陳述可能要等到我們下一次季度財報電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。

Our presenters today include John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Pack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to Slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, John.

今天我們的演講者包括總裁兼執行長 John Pfeifer；執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Pack。請翻到投影片 3，我會把它交給你，約翰。

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to announce a strong finish to 2023, with significant year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter, leading to a full year adjusted earnings per share of $9.98. For the fourth quarter, we grew revenue by 12% and adjusted operating income by 54%, leading to an adjusted operating margin of 9.7% and adjusted EPS of $2.56. Demand for Oshkosh products remains robust, and we are pleased with strong order activity in the quarter which led to a record backlog of $16.8 billion and confirmed our previous expectation that we would largely be booked for 2024 as we enter the year. I'll provide more details on demand by business in our segment updates.

謝謝你，帕特，大家早安。我很高興地宣布 2023 年將取得圓滿成功，第四季度的收入和利潤同比大幅增長，全年調整後每股收益達到 9.98 美元。第四季度，我們的營收成長了 12%，調整後營業收入成長了 54%，調整後營業利潤率為 9.7%，調整後每股收益為 2.56 美元。對奧什科甚產品的需求依然強勁，我們對本季強勁的訂單活動感到高興，這導致積壓訂單達到創紀錄的168 億美元，並證實了我們先前的預期，即進入2024 年時，我們的訂單將主要集中在2024 年。我將在我們的細分更新中根據業務需求提供更多詳細資訊。

Importantly, we believe Oshkosh is well positioned for long-term growth supported by significant investments in market-leading technology, solid market dynamics in key end markets, strong visibility provided by our backlogs and the ramp-up of next-generation delivery vehicle production as well as the benefits of strategic acquisitions like AeroTech and Hinowa that we completed this past year.

重要的是，我們相信豪士科處於長期成長的有利地位，這得益於對市場領先技術的大量投資、關鍵終端市場的穩健市場動態、我們的積壓訂單提供的強大可見性以及下一代運載工具產量的增加。以及我們去年完成的 AeroTech 和 Hinowa 等策略性收購的好處。

During the quarter, we were named to the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index for the fifth straight year. Companies must be rated in the top 10% of their peer group for sustainable business practices to be considered for the index, and we were rated in the top 2% of our global Industrial Group by Dow Jones. This is a particularly meaningful accomplishment because it demonstrates that we're driving profitable growth in a sustainable way, which is good for our people, good for the communities in which we work and live, good for the environment and good for our shareholders.

本季度，我們連續第五年入選道瓊可持續發展世界指數。公司的永續商業實踐必須在同業中排名前 10%，才能考慮納入該指數，而我們被道瓊斯評為全球工業集團前 2%。這是一項特別有意義的成就，因為它表明我們正在以可持續的方式推動獲利成長，這對我們的員工、我們工作和生活的社區、環境和股東都有好處。

Please turn to Slide 4 for a review of our full year highlights. I'm pleased with our outstanding performance in 2023 as our team's persevered to overcome the impacts of supply chain constraints and inflation to deliver for our customers. We believe the actions we have taken over the past several quarters to operate successfully in a constrained environment will enable us to perform as a more resilient company well into the future. I want to take this opportunity to thank our 17,000 team members for all of their contributions that drove our strong performance.

請參閱幻燈片 4 回顧我們的全年亮點。我對 2023 年的出色表現感到滿意，因為我們的團隊堅持克服供應鏈限制和通貨膨脹的影響，為客戶提供服務。我們相信，過去幾季我們在有限的環境中成功經營所採取的行動將使我們能夠在未來成為一家更具彈性的公司。我想藉此機會感謝我們 17,000 名團隊成員為推動我們取得強勁業績所做的貢獻。

Moving to full year 2023 results, we grew revenue by 16.6% to $9.7 billion and grew adjusted operating income by 129% to $909 million leading to adjusted earnings per share of $9.98. In addition, we announced several important new products during the year, including the revolutionary new all-electric Volterra ZSL refuse and recycling collection vehicle. We are investing in new capacity across the company to support continued growth, including Spartanburg, South Carolina for NGDV; Murfreesboro, Tennessee for Volterra ZSL production; and Jefferson City, Tennessee for increased telehandler capacity. We also expanded into the growing airport and air transportation passenger support markets with our recent acquisition of AeroTech.

展望 2023 年全年業績，我們的營收成長了 16.6%，達到 97 億美元，調整後營業收入成長了 129%，達到 9.09 億美元，調整後每股收益為 9.98 美元。此外，我們在這一年中還發布了幾款重要的新產品，包括革命性的新型全電動 Volterra ZSL 垃圾和回收車。我們正在整個公司投資新產能以支持持續成長，其中包括南卡羅來納州斯帕坦堡的 NGDV；田納西州默弗里斯伯勒生產 Volterra ZSL；和田納西州傑斐遜市，以提高伸縮臂叉裝機的容量。透過最近收購 AeroTech，我們也擴展到不斷成長的機場和航空運輸乘客支援市場。

As a result of continued strength in our end markets, robust backlogs, strong fourth quarter performance and our positive outlook, I am pleased to announce that we are initiating full year 2024 adjusted EPS expectations to be in a range of $10.25. We also raised our quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share to $0.46 per share, representing an increase of 12.2%. This is the tenth consecutive year that we have announced a double-digit increase to our cash dividend. Our dividend growth reflects our robust cash flow generation as well as the Board's confidence in the strength of our business and our ability to continue to drive profitable growth into the future.

由於我們終端市場的持續強勁、強勁的積壓、強勁的第四季度業績以及我們積極的前景，我很高興地宣布，我們將2024 年全年調整後每股收益預期設定在10.25 美元的範圍內。我們也將季度股息每股上調 0.05 美元，至每股 0.46 美元，增幅為 12.2%。這是我們連續第十年宣布以兩位數的速度增加現金股利。我們的股息成長反映了我們強勁的現金流產生，以及董事會對我們業務實力和我們未來繼續推動獲利成長的能力的信心。

Please turn to Slide 5, and we'll get started on our segment updates. I'm very pleased with our exceptional execution at Access in 2023. The team delivered another quarter of strong performance with year-over-year revenue growth of 7.1% and adjusted operating margin of 14.4%. These strong results led to a full year revenue growth of over 25% and a 15% adjusted operating margin, representing an impressive 700-basis-point improvement. Importantly, we believe there are opportunities to continue to grow the Access business over time. Demand for aerial work platforms and telehandlers remain strong, supported by infrastructure investment, mega projects and industrial onshoring projects as well as elevated fleet ages.

請轉到投影片 5，我們將開始進行細分更新。我對 Access 在 2023 年的出色執行感到非常滿意。團隊又一個季度表現強勁，營收年增 7.1%，調整後營業利潤率為 14.4%。這些強勁的業績導致全年營收成長超過 25%，調整後營業利潤率提高 15%，提高了 700 個基點，令人印象深刻。重要的是，我們相信隨著時間的推移，Access 業務有機會繼續發展。在基礎設施投資、大型專案和工業外包專案以及機隊年齡增長的支持下，對高空作業平台和伸縮臂叉裝機的需求仍然強勁。

Our orders for the fourth quarter exceeded our expectations at $1.7 billion. This yielded a 1.5 book-to-bill ratio for the fourth quarter leading to a 1.1 book-to-bill ratio for the second half of the year, also exceeding our expectation of 1.0. With 2024 largely booked and supply chains and product availability normalizing, we expect order patterns to also normalize. Therefore, we expect 2025 booking activity will largely occur during the second half of 2024, which is reflective of more typical seasonality in a healthy access equipment environment. As such, we expect order activity to be lower in the first half of the year compared to 2023.

我們第四季的訂單達到 17 億美元，超出了我們的預期。第四季的訂單出貨比為 1.5，下半年的訂單出貨比為 1.1，也超出了我們 1.0 的預期。隨著 2024 年的訂單量很大，供應鏈和產品可用性正常化，我們預期訂單模式也將正常化。因此，我們預計 2025 年的預訂活動將主要發生在 2024 年下半年，這反映了健康的接取設備環境中更典型的季節性。因此，我們預計今年上半年的訂單活動將低於 2023 年。

As we've discussed in the last few calls, we are expanding telehandler capacity to support strong market dynamics and the significant opportunities we see in the North American agricultural market, for our telehandlers. We expect this capacity expansion to help us better support our customers as well as drive further growth and strong financial performance. Work to repurpose our Jefferson City facility to telehandler production is progressing well. We expect the project to be complete in 2024 and build rates will increase as additional production lines come online.

正如我們在過去幾次電話會議中討論的那樣，我們正在擴大伸縮臂叉裝機的產能，以支持強勁的市場動態以及我們在北美農業市場上看到的伸縮臂叉裝機的重大機遇。我們預計此次產能擴張將幫助我們更好地支援客戶，並推動進一步成長和強勁的財務表現。將我們的傑斐遜城工廠改造成伸縮臂叉裝機生產的工作進展順利。我們預計該專案將於 2024 年完成，隨著更多生產線的上線，建造率將會提高。

Please turn to Slide 6, and I'll review our Defense segment. Our defense team delivered an exceptional quarter with an adjusted operating margin of 10.6%. The strong results were driven by JLTV orders in the quarter, which included a favorable mix of trucks and kits. Domestic JLTV production will conclude in early 2025, but we believe we will continue to have opportunities to supply JLTVs to foreign allies through the direct commercial sale process in 2025 and beyond. Oshkosh already has a great reputation among international customers who view our JLTV as the right solution to meet their protected mobility requirements.

請轉到投影片 6，我將回顧我們的防禦部分。我們的國防團隊交付了一個出色的季度業績，調整後的營業利潤率為 10.6%。強勁的業績得益於本季 JLTV 訂單，其中包括有利的卡車和套件組合。國內 JLTV 生產將於 2025 年初結束，但我們相信我們將繼續有機會在 2025 年及以後透過直接商業銷售流程向外國盟友供應 JLTV。奧什科甚已經在國際客戶中享有盛譽，他們認為我們的 JLTV 是滿足其受保護的行動需求的正確解決方案。

In addition to JLTV orders in the fourth quarter, we announced a contract valued at up to $342 million over a 5-year period to deliver Medium Equipment Trailers or MET. The MET is a 6-axle trailer designed to be pulled by the Oshkosh Enhanced Heavy Equipment Transporter with the ability to haul payloads up to 60 tons. We are scheduled to deliver the first trailers for testing in May 2024.

除了第四季度的 JLTV 訂單外，我們還宣布了一份價值高達 3.42 億美元的合同，為期 5 年，交付中型設備拖車 (MET)。 MET 是一款 6 軸拖車，設計由 Oshkosh 增強型重型設備運輸車牽引，有效載重高達 60 噸。我們計劃於 2024 年 5 月交付第一批拖車進行測試。

Before I leave the Defense segment, I'm happy to report that the USPS' next-generation delivery vehicle program is progressing well. We have been building test and evaluation units and remain on track to move into low-rate production in April 2024. Production is expected to ramp up throughout 2025, and with plans to achieve full rate production in 2026.

在離開國防部門之前，我很高興地向大家報告，美國郵政局的下一代運載工具計畫進展順利。我們一直在建造測試和評估裝置，並預計在 2024 年 4 月進入低速生產。預計產量將在 2025 年全年增加，併計劃在 2026 年實現全速生產。

Let's turn to Slide 7 for a discussion of the Vocational segment. Our Vocational segment also delivered strong year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 26% primarily driven by the benefit of $176 million of AeroTech sales. We are particularly pleased with Vocational's full year adjusted operating margin of 9.7%, a 230-basis-point improvement over the prior year. We are starting 2024 from a position of strength, and we expect improving supply chains and strong pricing and backlog to support a solid 2024. With strong order rates and backlog, we continue to increase capacity for our municipal fire trucks to improve throughput at Pierce to support high demand. We are confident that the investments we have been making in new products and production capacity will drive strong earnings growth in this segment.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 7 來討論職業部分。我們的職業部門第四季度營收也實現了 26% 的強勁同比增長，這主要得益於 1.76 億美元的 AeroTech 銷售額。我們對 Vocational 全年調整後營業利潤率為 9.7% 感到特別滿意，比前一年提高了 230 個基點。我們從2024 年開始就處於強勢地位，我們預計供應鏈的改善以及強勁的定價和積壓將為2024 年提供堅實的支持。憑藉強勁的訂單率和積壓，我們將繼續增加市政消防車的產能，以提高皮爾斯的吞吐量支援高需求。我們相信，我們對新產品和產能的投資將推動該領域的強勁獲利成長。

The AeroTech integration is progressing well, and the team delivered a strong finish to the year. We believe that robust demand and solid execution have positioned AeroTech for meaningful growth in 2024 and beyond. Passenger air traffic has rebounded to be in the range of pre-pandemic levels, and our outlook is positive. Our view for AeroTech is further bolstered by a strong new product pipeline and ongoing synergy opportunities.

AeroTech 整合進展順利，團隊為這一年畫下了圓滿的句點。我們相信，強勁的需求和紮實的執行力使 AeroTech 在 2024 年及以後實現了有意義的成長。航空客運量已回升至疫情前的水平，我們的前景樂觀。強大的新產品線和持續的協同機會進一步增強了我們對 AeroTech 的看法。

Our team continues to build on its success with international airports that are seeking to reduce their carbon footprint. During the fourth quarter, we booked key Striker Volterra electric ARFF orders with the Japan Ministry of Defense and Paris' Le Bourget Airport. These revolutionary new battery-powered ARFF units support lower carbon emissions in a responsible and sustainable manner while delivering superior performance. When you combine these Volterra ARFF orders with our Pierce Volterra fire trucks and McNeilus Volterra ZSL refuse and recycling vehicles, you can understand why we are so enthusiastic about the long-term potential for our customers to electrify their fleets.

我們的團隊繼續在尋求減少碳足跡的國際機場取得成功。第四季度，我們向日本防衛省和巴黎布爾歇機場預訂了重要的 Striker Volterra 電動 ARFF 訂單。這些革命性的新型電池供電 ARFF 裝置以負責任和可持續的方式支持降低碳排放，同時提供卓越的性能。當您將這些 Volterra ARFF 訂單與我們的 Pierce Volterra 消防車和 McNeilus Volterra ZSL 垃圾回收車結合時，您就會明白為什麼我們對客戶車隊電氣化的長期潛力如此熱衷。

With that, I'm going to turn it over to Mike to discuss our results in more detail and our expectations for 2024.

接下來，我將把它交給 Mike，更詳細地討論我們的結果以及我們對 2024 年的期望。

Thanks, John. Please turn to Slide 8. Consolidated sales for the fourth quarter were $2.47 billion, an increase of $263 million or 12% over the prior year quarter. The increase was primarily driven by the benefit of $176 million of AeroTech sales in the Vocational segment, which was acquired in the third quarter of 2023 as well as improved pricing. Defense sales were also up in the quarter versus the prior year as a result of strong orders in the quarter, which drove a positive cumulative catch-up adjustment. Adjusted operating income increased $84 million over the prior year quarter to $240 million or 9.7% of sales, a 260-basis-point improvement versus the prior year.

謝謝，約翰。請參閱投影片 8。第四季綜合銷售額為 24.7 億美元，比去年同期增加 2.63 億美元，即 12%。這一成長主要得益於職業部門 AeroTech 銷售額 1.76 億美元（該部門於 2023 年第三季收購）以及定價的改善。由於本季訂單強勁，推動了積極的累積追趕調整，該季度的國防銷售也較上年有所成長。調整後營業收入比去年同期增加 8,400 萬美元，達到 2.4 億美元，佔銷售額的 9.7%，比去年同期提高 260 個基點。

The improvement in adjusted operating income was largely driven by favorable price cost dynamics, favorable mix, favorable cumulative catch-up adjustments at Defense and the benefit of AeroTech results, offset in part by higher incentive compensation and SG&A expenses.

調整後營業收入的改善主要是由有利的價格成本動態、有利的組合、國防部門有利的累積追趕調整以及航空技術業績的好處推動的，但部分被較高的激勵薪酬和銷售管理費用所抵消。

Adjusted operating income exceeded our most recent expectations primarily due to stronger results at Defense. Defense adjusted operating income benefited from stronger JLTV orders at a better mix, which led to more favorable cumulative catch-up adjustments. Defense also benefited from international drug commercial sales at favorable margins. Our strong adjusted operating income led to adjusted earnings per share of $2.56 in the fourth quarter versus $1.63 in the prior year. As expected, free cash flow was strong in the quarter, leading to full year free cash flow of nearly $275 million.

調整後的營業收入超出了我們最近的預期，這主要是由於國防業務的表現強勁。國防調整後的營業收入受益於更強大的 JLTV 訂單和更好的組合，這導致了更有利的累積追趕調整。國防也受益於國際藥品商業銷售的有利利潤。我們強勁的調整後營業收入導致第四季度調整後每股收益為 2.56 美元，而去年同期為 1.63 美元。正如預期，本季自由現金流強勁，全年自由現金流接近 2.75 億美元。

Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of our expectations for 2024. We expect growth to continue into 2024. Demand is strong for our products as evidenced by our $16.8 billion backlog at December 31, 2023, and supply chain conditions have improved which we believe supports our outlook for growth. On a consolidated basis, we are estimating 2024 sales and adjusted operating income to be in the range of $10.4 billion and $990 million, respectively. We are estimating adjusted earnings per share will be in the range of $10.25. At a segment level, we are estimating excess sales and adjusted operating margin to be in the range of $5.2 billion and 15%, respectively. Included in this margin expectation is an approximately $20 million increase in new product development investments versus 2023.

請參閱投影片9，回顧我們對2024 年的預期。我們預計成長將持續到2024 年。截至2023 年12 月31 日，我們的積壓訂單達到168 億美元，這證明了我們產品的需求強勁，而且我們相信供應鏈狀況已經有所改善支持我們的成長前景。在綜合基礎上，我們預期 2024 年銷售額和調整後營業收入分別為 104 億美元和 9.9 億美元。我們預計調整後每股收益將在 10.25 美元左右。在細分市場層面，我們預期超額銷售額和調整後營業利潤率分別在 52 億美元和 15% 範圍內。這項利潤率預期中包括與 2023 年相比，新產品開發投資增加約 2,000 萬美元。

Turning to Defense, we expect sales of $2.1 billion for the year. We expect adjusted operating margin to be in the range of 2.5%, down from 4.3% in 2023. We expect NGDV first year production ramp-up costs, combined with increased NPD investments will total approximately $35 million. We also expect an unfavorable product mix. As a reminder, NGDV production is expected to ramp up throughout 2025, and we expect to operate at full rate production in 2026. As such, we expect NGDV to be a meaningful contributor to Defense sales and profitability in 2025 and beyond.

至於國防，我們預計今年的銷售額為 21 億美元。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將在 2.5% 左右，低於 2023 年的 4.3%。我們預計 NGDV 第一年的生產提升成本加上增加的 NPD 投資總計約為 3,500 萬美元。我們也預計會出現不利的產品組合。需要提醒的是，NGDV 產量預計將在 2025 年全年增加，我們預計將在 2026 年全速生產。因此，我們預計 NGDV 將為 2025 年及以後的國防銷售和盈利能力做出有意義的貢獻。

We expect 2024 Vocational sales adjusted operating margin will be in the range of $3.1 billion and 11%, respectively, representing solid growth in both sales and margin versus 2023. Our expectations include the full year benefit of AeroTech results, which are expected to contribute approximately $420 million of incremental sales versus 2023 at a double-digit adjusted operating margin.

我們預計2024 年職業銷售調整後營業利潤率將分別在31 億美元和11% 範圍內，與2023 年相比，銷售額和利潤率均實現穩健增長。我們的預期包括AeroTech 業績的全年效益，預計貢獻約與 2023 年相比，銷售額增量為 4.2 億美元，調整後營業利潤率為兩位數。

Our expectations also include an increase of approximately $15 million for Murfreesboro start-up costs. Our estimate of corporate expenses is approximately $180 million, in line with 2023 with higher new product development investments expected to largely offset lower incentive compensation costs. We expect a tax rate of approximately 24.5%, an average share count of approximately 66.2 million shares and CapEx of $300 million. We expect free cash flow of approximately $425 million, representing solid growth versus 2023.

我們的預期還包括默弗里斯伯勒的啟動成本增加約 1500 萬美元。我們預計公司開支約為 1.8 億美元，與 2023 年一致，新產品開發投資的增加預計將在很大程度上抵消激勵性薪酬成本的下降。我們預計稅率約為 24.5%，平均股數約為 6,620 萬股，資本支出為 3 億美元。我們預計自由現金流約 4.25 億美元，較 2023 年穩健成長。

Looking to the first quarter, we expect adjusted EPS in the range of $2.25, which is up versus the prior year, but down versus the fourth quarter as a result of lower expected results for Defense. We expect Access and Vocational sales and adjusted operating income to both be up sequentially versus the fourth quarter. As supply chains and production throughput continue to normalize, we expect a return of more typical seasonality in our Access and Vocational segments with the second and third quarters expected to be our highest quarters for sales and earnings.

展望第一季度，我們預計調整後每股收益為 2.25 美元，較上年同期有所上升，但由於國防業務預期業績較低，較第四季度有所下降。我們預計接入和職業銷售以及調整後的營業收入將比第四季持續成長。隨著供應鏈和生產吞吐量繼續正常化，我們預計我們的接觸和職業部門將回歸更典型的季節性，第二季和第三季預計將成為我們銷售和獲利最高的季度。

I'll turn it back over to John now for some closing comments.

我現在將把它轉回約翰以徵求一些結束語。

We delivered strong results for both our fourth quarter and full year 2023 and our $16.8 billion backlog is a new record. Our positive outlook for 2024 is built on a strong foundation of demand, and we continue to invest in both new products and new capacity that we expect will drive continued profitable growth. We are in the process of integrating AeroTech into the company, and we are already seeing the considerable value it brings. And our USPS NGDV program is progressing well, and we will be starting low-rate production in April. This is an exciting time for Oshkosh and we are confident that we will continue to drive growth and deliver enhanced shareholder value.

我們在第四季和 2023 年全年均取得了強勁的業績，168 億美元的積壓訂單創下了新紀錄。我們對 2024 年的積極展望建立在強勁的需求基礎之上，我們將繼續投資新產品和新產能，預計這將推動持續的獲利成長。我們正在將 AeroTech 整合到公司中，我們已經看到了它帶來的巨大價值。我們的 USPS NGDV 計劃進展順利，我們將於 4 月開始低速生產。對於奧什科甚來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻，我們相信我們將繼續推動成長並提高股東價值。

Okay, Pat, let's get started with Q&A.

好的，帕特，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period of this call.

（接線生指示）接線員，請開始本次通話的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird 的線路。

I figured we would start maybe with Vocational. I appreciate all the detail on AeroTech, but maybe you can put a finer point on fire and refuse, how you think about growth specifically for those verticals, what's embedded in the guidance. And I'm sort of curious, is there anything else in the supply chain at this point that is preventing you from sort of really accelerating the volume or production in fire. Yes, let's start there.

我想我們也許可以從職業開始。我很欣賞關於 AeroTech 的所有細節，但也許您可以提出更詳細的觀點，例如您如何考慮這些垂直領域的成長，以及指南中包含的內容。我有點好奇，目前供應鏈中是否還有其他因素阻礙你真正加速火災的數量或產量。是的，讓我們從這裡開始。

Sure. First of all, just talking a bit about Vocational overall with the sales growth that based on my prepared comments, ultimately, the biggest driver of the volume increase north of $400 million or about $420 million of that is related to AeroTech with the balance really being between fire and refuse. Now the other piece to keep in mind there is, we did divest the rear discharge concrete mixer business. So that does decrease about revenue about $50 million. So really organically, about $150 million of revenue growth.

當然。首先，根據我準備好的評論，談談職業整體的銷售成長，最終，銷售成長超過 4 億美元或約 4.2 億美元的最大推動力與 AeroTech 有關，其餘的實際上是火與垃圾之間。現在要記住的另一件事是，我們確實剝離了後卸混凝土攪拌機業務。因此，收入確實減少了約 5000 萬美元。因此，真正有機地實現了約 1.5 億美元的收入成長。

I would say right now, we certainly have more capacity coming online Mig, and that's going to help us. I think we're -- our throughput is improving as supply chains improved and Appleton, which is our Pierce -- the largest Pierce plant, we'll have more capacity coming online over the course of the year with Murfreesboro, Tennessee, that will also be supporting our electric refuse collection vehicle production. So I would say right now, there are some capacity constraints. Certainly, if supply chain improves, that will help.

我現在想說的是，我們肯定有更多的線上 Mig 容量，這將對我們有所幫助。我認為，隨著供應鏈的改善，我們的吞吐量正在提高，阿普爾頓（我們的皮爾斯工廠）是最大的皮爾斯工廠，今年我們將在田納西州默弗里斯伯勒上線更多產能，這將也支持我們的電動垃圾收集車生產。所以我現在想說的是，存在一些能力限制。當然，如果供應鏈得到改善，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. Just a little bit more color, Mig, on the Fire & Emergency business. When you look at our backlogs, we've got really strong backlogs across our businesses, but the strongest backlog we have when you measure it in terms of how many months of backlog do we have is in the Fire & Emergency business, I mean backlog is years. And so we're continuing to increase capacity.

是的。米格，在消防和緊急業務方面再多一點色彩。當你查看我們的積壓訂單時，會發現我們各個業務的積壓訂單非常多，但是當你以我們有多少個月的積壓訂單來衡量時，我們擁有的最強勁的積壓訂單是在消防和緊急業務中，我的意思是積壓訂單是年。因此，我們正在繼續增加產能。

You asked about supply chain. Supply chain is a lot better today than it was a year ago or 1.5 years ago, but it's still not perfect. It's -- our on-time delivery is still kind of in the low 80s, I would say. So we still have some constraint with supply base, but it is a lot better. I think more of the issue is getting to just continuing to prudently add capacity like Mike mentioned that we're going to put fire trucks down in Murfreesboro, because we've got the ability to do that alongside the electric refuse and recycling vehicles. But both of those segments, Fire & Emergency and environmental refuse and recycling collection are really strong segments, strong demand. Both have a lot of desire for new electrified platforms, which we're going into production with as we speak on both. So there's a lot of optimism long term in those businesses for us.

您問的是供應鏈。如今的供應鏈比一年前或 1.5 年前好多了，但仍然不完美。我想說，我們的準時交貨率仍然在 80 左右。所以我們的供應基礎仍然有一些限制，但已經好多了。我認為更多的問題在於繼續謹慎地增加容量，就像麥克提到的那樣，我們將在默弗里斯伯勒停放消防車，因為我們有能力與電動垃圾和回收車輛一起做到這一點。但這兩個細分市場，即消防和緊急情況以及環境垃圾和回收收集，都是真正強大的細分市場，需求強勁。兩者都對新的電氣化平台有很大的渴望，當我們談論這兩者時，我們即將投入生產。因此，從長遠來看，這些業務對我們來說非常樂觀。

Understood. Then if I may follow up on your comments here, if we're sort of looking at what's embedded in terms of volume, for fire in 2024. Is there any volume growth? Or is that still sort of on the common '25, '26 as you're adding capacity? And also, can you comment at -- on margins here where we are relative to either prior peak or however you want to frame it?

明白了。那麼，如果我可以在這裡跟進您的評論，如果我們正在研究 2024 年火災的數量方面的內容。數量有增長嗎？或者，當您增加容量時，這仍然是常見的「25」、「26」嗎？另外，您能否評論一下我們相對於先前高峰的利潤率或您想要的框架？

Sure. I would say that from a volume perspective, there is a step up in volume and in Fire & Emergency, but I would say it's more back-end loaded. And I -- so we would expect that as we get into future years, we'll see further step-ups there. In terms of margins, I think we're quite pleased with the progress we're seeing. So we're underlying, you have a strong fundamental margins in the fire truck business. We've talked a lot about the pricing we're getting and really that price cost dynamic is back to pretty much normal in 2024. We do have more price coming after that. So I would say that's strong. We're continuing to see strong margins growing in refuse and recycling and AeroTech, of course, is already delivering double-digit adjusted operating margin. So guide's 11%. We've talked about the Vocational, we viewed it as a segment that could be 12% plus. So we see further runway in the future for the margin progression of this segment.

當然。我想說，從數量的角度來看，消防和緊急情況下的數量增加，但我想說它的後端負載更多。我 - 所以我們預計，隨著進入未來幾年，我們將看到進一步的進展。就利潤率而言，我認為我們對所看到的進展感到非常滿意。因此，我們認為，消防車業務的基本利潤率很高。我們已經就我們獲得的定價進行了很多討論，事實上，價格成本動態將在 2024 年恢復到幾乎正常水平。之後我們確實會有更多的價格。所以我想說這很強大。我們繼續看到垃圾和回收領域的利潤率強勁增長，當然，AeroTech 已經實現了兩位數的調整後營業利潤率。所以指導是11%。我們已經討論過職業教育，我們認為它是一個可能超過 12% 的細分市場。因此，我們認為該細分市場的利潤率未來還有進一步發展的空間。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the puts and takes around the Access Equipment margin outlook for '24, really strong performance in '23 and essentially guided to 10 basis points on some modest sales growth, but logistics costs, I believe, have been declining for you folks in that line of business. So I'm just trying to understand, is that some conservatism baked in the guide early in the year? Or are there discrete headwinds that we should be keeping in mind relative to the strong performance in '23?

我想知道您是否可以談談24 年接入設備利潤率前景的看跌期權和期權，23 年的表現非常強勁，並且在一些溫和的銷售增長的基礎上基本上引導至10 個基點，但我相信物流成本，對於從事該行業的人來說，情況一直在下降。所以我只是想了解，今年年初的指南中是否存在一些保守主義？或者相對於 23 年的強勁表現，我們是否應該牢記一些離散的阻力？

I would say ultimately, the outlook for Access is pretty straightforward. I think we have a couple of hundred million of revenue growth. And one thing to keep in mind is we're adding capacity in that segment as well with Jefferson City. So supply chain is not normal, that could provide some of less but more importantly, we're operating closer to capacity. So the uplift in volume is until we have more capacity coming on online is somewhat limited. So we see that revenue growth from an incremental margin perspective, I would say we're seeing pretty normal incrementals read through. I would say the one adjustment is pretty much the higher NPD that I referenced in my opening comments of about $20 million. So -- and there's a little bit of mix. I would say the mix is modestly less favorable, that's not really the biggest driver. I think if you really adjust for that NPD, you're really seeing a pretty normal incremental margin reading through. And again, as that capacity comes online, later in the year that we see some further volume opportunities for the future.

我想說，最終 Access 的前景非常簡單。我認為我們的收入成長了數億。需要記住的一件事是，我們正在增加該領域以及傑斐遜城的容量。因此，供應鏈不正常，這可能會提供一些較少的供應，但更重要的是，我們的營運接近產能。因此，在我們有更多的線上容量之前，數量的成長是有限的。因此，我們從增量利潤的角度來看收入成長，我想說我們看到了相當正常的增量。我想說，其中一個調整幾乎是我在開場評論中提到的約 2000 萬美元的較高 NPD。所以——還有一點混合。我想說的是，這種組合稍微不太有利，這並不是真正最大的驅動因素。我認為，如果你真的針對 NPD 進行調整，你真的會看到一個非常正常的增量裕度讀數。同樣，隨著產能的上線，我們將在今年稍後看到未來的一些進一步的銷售機會。

Jerry, I'll just add to that because you mentioned input costs and you've specifically mentioned freight. You're correct. There's been some relief in terms of freight costs. But when you look at the total input costs, for our businesses, take Access Equipment in this case. While it's really good that inflation has come way down as we look at the totality of it, we're not seeing deflation. So you can pick out one input costs like freight and say, yes, well, freights come down. But when you look at the total of everything, really good that inflation's come way down, but it hasn't gone into deflationary territory.

傑瑞，我補充一下，因為您提到了投入成本，並且特別提到了運費。你是對的。貨運成本有所緩解。但是，當您查看我們企業的總投入成本時，請以本例中的存取設備為例。雖然從整體來看，通膨大幅下降確實很好，但我們並沒有看到通貨緊縮。因此，您可以選擇一項輸入成本，例如運費，然後說，是的，好吧，運費下降了。但當你看看所有事情的總和時，你會發現通貨膨脹已經大幅下降，但還沒有進入通貨緊縮的範圍，這確實很好。

Super. I appreciate the color. And then your Defense sales outlook was pretty robust for '24 versus our numbers. I'm wondering could you just flesh out the anticipated ramp-up in international JLTV sales, how much that's contributing and prospects for that to continue into '25? And maybe expand on the contribution of the USPS contract over the course of this year and into '25.

極好的。我很欣賞它的顏色。然後，與我們的數字相比，你們 24 年的國防銷售前景相當強勁。我想知道您能否具體說明一下國際 JLTV 銷量的預期增長、其貢獻有多大以及這種增長將持續到 25 年的前景嗎？也許會在今年和 25 年期間擴大 USPS 合約的貢獻。

Sure. I think next year, I think -- what I would say is there's a couple of moving pieces. I think from a revenue standpoint, we had a little bit of volume pushed out of the fourth quarter to next year that bolster next year a bit. And I think ultimately, with our -- just our production rates, that's really sort of the result of where we're ending up from a revenue perspective. I would say right now, going in international is sort of flattish. You have some gives and takes. We had a large -- we had larger Belgium deliveries. We'll have other international deliveries this year. So that's international is probably not the biggest mover there.

當然。我想明年，我想說的是，有一些令人感動的事情。我認為從收入的角度來看，我們將一些銷量從第四季度推遲到了明年，這對明年有所提振。我認為最終，就我們的生產力而言，這實際上是我們從收入角度來看的最終結果。我現在想說的是，進入國際市場有點平淡。你有一些給予和索取。我們有大量的比利時交貨。今年我們還將進行其他國際交付。因此，國際可能並不是最大的推動者。

Postal Service is a smaller portion of the revenue this year. So there will be a ramp-up. I did mention in prepared remarks from a margin standpoint really between NGDV start-up costs as well as a bit higher NPD, about a $35 million headwind when you think about that year-over-year. I think the very important part, though, is as we look at NGDV, 2025 is going to be a big ramp-up year and 2026, we expect to be at full rates, that's going to become a very significant revenue contributor and margin contributor in 2025 and 2026.

郵政服務在今年的收入中所佔的比例較小。因此，將會有一個斜坡上升。我確實在準備好的評論中提到，從利潤率的角度來看，NGDV 啟動成本與較高的 NPD 之間確實存在差距，當您考慮同比時，大約會遇到 3500 萬美元的逆風。不過，我認為非常重要的部分是，當我們看待NGDV 時，2025 年將是一個大的成長年，而2026 年，我們預計將達到全額，這將成為一個非常重要的收入貢獻者和利潤貢獻者2025 年及 2026 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·福克曼和傑弗里斯的對話。

Our next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自安吉爾·卡斯蒂略（Angel Castillo）與摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的對話。

I was wondering if we could actually unpack the order commentary a little bit more, maybe in particular, looking at the kind of 1Q dynamic, I think historically -- or you've talked about a return to normal seasonality. If I'm not mistaken, just kind of billings in the first quarter typically pickup pretty materially versus the fourth quarter, kind of to the tune of kind of 30%. So can you talk about the pickup that you've kind of embedded in guidance in terms of earnings growth for Access Equipment. That's where I'm referring to that 30%. So is that generally what you expect in terms of billings for the first quarter. Can you give us more color as to how to think about volumes kind of sequentially there?

我想知道我們是否真的可以對訂單評論進行更多的解讀，也許特別是看看第一季的動態，我認為從歷史上看，或者你談到了恢復正常的季節性。如果我沒記錯的話，與第四季相比，第一季的帳單通常會大幅增加，大約是 30%。那麼，您能否談談您在接取設備獲利成長方面所納入的指引中的回升情況。這就是我所說的 30%。這通常是您對第一季帳單的預期。您能否給我們更多關於如何按順序思考體積的信息？

I think there's -- yes, trying to unpack, I'll kind of talk about the volume first and then we can talk about the seasonality of orders. We did say in our prepared remarks that we do expect volume to be up somewhat for Access and Vocational sequentially from Q4 to Q1. But I think just with the return -- with more normalcy with production throughput, supply chains getting better. I think you are going to see some more typical type seasonality with our highest quarters really being from a revenue and profitability perspective, our second and third quarters, with the first quarter and the fourth quarter being a bit lower. So that's fairly typical. So I would expect some volume step up there. You're probably a little rich at 30%. But that's what we're thinking about. And then in terms of -- I'll let John talk about just order cadence.

我認為——是的，試圖打開包裝，我會先討論數量，然後我們可以討論訂單的季節性。我們在準備好的評論中確實說過，我們確實預計從第四季度到第一季度，Access 和 Vocational 的銷量將有所增加。但我認為，只要有了回報——隨著生產吞吐量更加正常，供應鏈就會變得更好。我認為你會看到一些更典型的季節性，從收入和盈利能力的角度來看，我們最高的季度是第二和第三季度，第一季和第四季度略低。所以這是相當典型的。所以我預計成交量會增加。 30%你可能有點富有了。但這就是我們正在考慮的。然後，我會讓約翰談談訂單節奏。

Yes. So Angel, talking about orders. So right now, with our Access Equipment segment, we're still in a very unusual time. It's not normal for us to go into a year. We're in early 2024 and be fully booked for the whole year. And that's the position that we're in.

是的。所以天使，談論命令。因此，目前我們的高空作業設備部門仍處於一個非常不尋常的時期。對我們來說進入一年是不正常的。我們現在是 2024 年初，全年都已訂滿。這就是我們所處的位置。

So when we talk with our customers, the big publicly traded customers that we have as well as all the thousands of independent customers that we serve, we're really expecting to go -- start to go back to a normal order cadence. We're starting to see more equipment replacement in 2024, which is a good thing. -- because equipment needs to be replaced. The fleet age is old. And our customers are indicating that they want to go back to kind of a normal AOP cycle, meaning we really talk at the end of the year about what the following years orders are going to look like.

因此，當我們與客戶、我們擁有的大型上市客戶以及我們服務的數千名獨立客戶交談時，我們真的希望開始回到正常的訂單節奏。 2024 年我們開始看到更多的設備更換，這是一件好事。 ——因為設備需要更換。船齡較長。我們的客戶表示他們希望回到正常的 AOP 週期，這意味著我們將在年底真正討論接下來幾年的訂單情況。

So we expect that season -- it has not been normal seasonality in orders in the past couple of years. But we do expect normal seasonality to come back into the market, which may mean that we don't have huge orders in Q1. But we'll continue to see healthy orders long term because we continue to expect the market to perform beyond 2024, into '25 and '26 because of all the market dynamics that are in play. So that's what I'll say about that.

所以我們預計這個季節——過去幾年的訂單季節性並不正常。但我們確實預期市場將恢復正常的季節性，這可能意味著我們在第一季沒有大量訂單。但從長遠來看，我們將繼續看到健康的訂單，因為我們繼續預計市場將在 2024 年後、25 年和 26 年表現良好，因為所有市場動態都在發揮作用。這就是我要說的。

That's very helpful. And then maybe switching over to the free cash flow guide, pretty much earlier step-up here kind of year-over-year. So can you just talk about kind of the puts and takes as to what's driving the improvement? And how should we think about that versus maybe your longer-term targets that you had set out at past Investor Days for kind of 2025 and beyond.

這非常有幫助。然後也許會切換到自由現金流指南，與去年同期相比，這裡的升級幾乎要早得多。那麼您能否談談推動改進的因素是什麼？與您在過去的投資者日所製定的 2025 年及以後的長期目標相比，我們應該如何考慮這一點。

Yes, yes. So a good solid step up. I would say, I would expect generally working capital -- some working capital decrease, particularly in our Defense segment, that's certainly going to be a benefit with some of the timing of our programs in billings and collections around that, particularly as JLTV domestic program winds down. CapEx is still going to be at a somewhat elevated level about $300 million, which is a bit lower than last year. I would expect as we get into 2025. As I've said on previous calls, I would expect a step down.

是的是的。這是一個很好的堅實的進步。我想說的是，我預計營運資金總體會減少——一些營運資金會減少，特別是在我們的國防領域，這肯定會對我們在帳單和收款方面的一些計劃的時間安排帶來好處，特別是作為JLTV 國內計劃風停了。資本支出仍將處於較高水平，約 3 億美元，略低於去年。我預計，當我們進入 2025 年時，就會出現這種情況。正如我在之前的電話會議中所說，我預計會出現降級。

And I think the other driver is we've had some significant investments beyond just the CapEx element of it and our NGDV program. So that's certainly going to be another benefit as we look year-over-year. But I think as cash flow as we continue to benefit from the ramp-up of our new production capacity. CapEx normalizes a bit more. I would expect that you should see continued progression there from a cash flow perspective as we look beyond 2024.

我認為另一個驅動因素是我們除了資本支出和 NGDV 計劃之外還進行了一些重大投資。因此，當我們逐年觀察時，這肯定會是另一個好處。但我認為隨著現金流的增加，我們將繼續受益於新產能的增加。資本支出更加正常化。我預計，從現金流的角度來看，當我們展望 2024 年後，您應該會看到該領域的持續進展。

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦的對話。

So my question is actually on Access Equipment. So part of the price increase over the last couple of years came from surcharges due to higher input costs. Will some of those costs maybe rolling back or kind of like staying steady. Like how are you -- I guess are you having conversations about rolling that back with some of your customers?

所以我的問題其實是關於接入設備。因此，過去幾年價格上漲的部分原因是投入成本上升而產生的附加費。其中一些成本可能會回落或保持穩定。就像你怎麼樣——我猜你是否正在與一些客戶討論如何恢復這一點？

Chad, as I talked about just earlier, when you look at the totality of our input costs, we're not seeing deflation. So that's the position that we're in right now.

乍得，正如我之前談到的，當你查看我們的投入成本總額時，我們沒有看到通貨緊縮。這就是我們現在所處的位置。

Got it. Okay. And then just sticking with Access. Can you just talk about the mix independents versus nationals this year versus '23. And can you talk about like what you're seeing from like a regional standpoint for that segment?

知道了。好的。然後就堅持使用 Access。能談談今年獨立選手與國民選手以及23年的混合情況嗎？您能否從該細分市場的區域角度談談您所看到的情況？

Sure. I would say from a mix perspective, it was generally for the first 3 quarters of the year is a little bit stronger nationals versus independents, a bit more balanced than in the fourth quarter. I would say if you wait together the year we expect fairly similar dynamics. Going into next year, I would say maybe a little bit of customer mix next year. I think the bigger thing is I think there are some product shifts a little bit of a boom and telehandler mix shift. But again, not the biggest piece of the dynamics going forward. So I think that's really what we're seeing at this point from a mix perspective. So next year, probably -- or 2024, a little bit heavier weighted towards the nationals versus independents.

當然。我想說，從混合的角度來看，今年前三個季度的國民與獨立人士相比總體上稍強一些，比第四季度更加平衡。我想說，如果你們一起等待，我們預計今年的動態會相當相似。進入明年，我想說明年可能會有一些客戶組合。我認為更重要的是，我認為有一些產品的轉變，例如動臂和伸縮臂叉裝機的混合轉變。但同樣，這並不是未來最大的動力。所以我認為這確實是我們目前從混合角度看到的情況。因此，明年，或 2024 年，國民與獨立人士的權重可能會更大一些。

But I mean, when you look at the mix between the NRCs and the IRCs, maybe a little bit, but it's pretty balanced. If you look back to '23, pretty balanced between the NRCs and the IRCs. We expect that relative balance to continue going forward. If you look at our business regionally around the world, in 2023 for Access Equipment, every region of the world had really nice growth. Every region of the world had really nice growth in 2023. We go into 2024, we expect continued long-term health in the North American market, which is our biggest market because of all the dynamics we talk about. If we look around the world, we do expect some weakness in Europe. I think probably whatever industry you're in, in Europe, people are expecting a bit of weakness in 2024. And -- but the other regions of the world, we're continuing to see relatively healthy market conditions that we're addressing.

但我的意思是，當你看看 NRC 和 IRC 之間的混合時，也許有一點，但它相當平衡。如果你回顧 23 年，NRC 和 IRC 之間相當平衡。我們預計這種相對平衡將繼續向前發展。如果你看看我們在世界各地的業務，到 2023 年，對於高空作業設備來說，世界每個地區都有非常好的成長。 2023 年，世界每個地區都實現了非常好的成長。進入 2024 年，我們預計北美市場將持續長期健康發展，由於我們所談論的所有動態，北美市場是我們最大的市場。如果我們環顧世界，我們確實預計歐洲會出現一些疲軟。我認為，無論你身處哪個行業，在歐洲，人們都預計 2024 年會出現一些疲軟。但在世界其他地區，我們將繼續看到我們正在解決的相對健康的市場狀況。

Our next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tami Zakaria 與摩根大通的對話。

So my first question is, I think you mentioned you booked Striker Volterra orders with the Ministry of Defense in Japan and also an airport in Paris. Are you able to size the two opportunities? How much in sales do you expect from these contracts at run rate? And could the order size or contracts become bigger over time? I'm just trying to size the opportunity for this product line in overseas markets.

所以我的第一個問題是，我想你提到你向日本國防部和巴黎機場預訂了 Striker Volterra 訂單。您能衡量這兩個機會嗎？以運行率計算，您預計這些合約的銷售額是多少？隨著時間的推移，訂單規模或合約會變得更大嗎？我只是想評估該產品線在海外市場的機會。

So I think the meaning of the orders that we won. These are airport orders. There are airport rescue and firefighting vehicles, the electric vehicles that we put into the market, brand-new platform for us. I think the meaning of it is, is that we've never had orders from these countries and these places before. We've never had orders from airports in France. I don't know that we've ever had orders from airports in Japan. Australia is looking at orders from us as well. The new product innovations we're putting into the market, in this case, in electrification are very desirable products and they're very notable products and they're going to drive nice share gains for us. So this airport rescue and firefighting market is one of our smaller end markets that we serve. So it's not a gigantic market, but they're very, very profitable products.

所以我認為我們贏得的訂單的意義。這些是機場訂單。還有機場救援消防車，還有我們投入市場的電動車，對我們來說是一個全新的平台。我認為它的含義是，我們以前從未收到來自這些國家和這些地方的訂單。我們從未收到來自法國機場的訂單。我不知道我們是否收到來自日本機場的訂單。澳洲也在考慮我們的訂單。我們投入市場的新產品創新，在這種情況下，在電氣化方面是非常理想的產品，它們是非常引人注目的產品，它們將為我們帶來可觀的份額收益。因此，這個機場救援和消防市場是我們服務的較小終端市場之一。所以這不是一個巨大的市場，但它們是非常非常有利可圖的產品。

And I think the bigger meaning is that we're putting electrified products into the municipal fire market, into the environmental market with refuse and recycling vehicles. We've got the NGDV, which is an electric vehicle for the last-mile delivery and specifically the United States Postal Service. I think it's just an indication of the power of some of the new products as we get them into the market. And one of the first ones that we took to market was this airport rescue and firefighting vehicle, and that's why we highlighted this.

我認為更大的意義是，我們將電氣化產品放入市政消防市場，放入垃圾和回收車輛的環保市場。我們有 NGDV，這是一種用於最後一英里遞送的電動車，特別是美國郵政服務。我認為這只是我們將一些新產品推向市場時的力量的體現。我們首先推向市場的產品之一是這款機場救援和消防車，這就是我們強調這一點的原因。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then my second question is, just wanted to understand the first quarter guide for the Defense segment a bit better. You're expecting Defense earnings down sequentially, does that include any cumulative cost adjustment negative impact from that versus 4Q? Or is it apples-to-apples sort of without that adjustment, do you expect the core earnings to be down sequentially?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是，只是想更了解防禦部分的第一季指南。您預計國防收入將連續下降，這是否包括與第四季度相比的累積成本調整負面影響？或者如果沒有這種調整，您是否預期核心收益會持續下降？

Yes. What -- Tami, what we benefited from was positive cumulative catch-up adjustments in the fourth quarter, essentially, you're spreading -- we received more JLTV orders for the domestic program. That's really the last order for domestic, so spreading more costs over more units, and that's why you get a positive cumulative catch-up adjustment. So that does not recur. So we would not expect any meaningful cumulative catch adjustments foundationally in the first quarter. So that's really the big difference from Q4 to Q1.

是的。塔米，我們受益的是第四季度積極的累積追趕調整，本質上，你正在傳播——我們收到了更多的 JLTV 國內節目訂單。這實際上是國內的最後一個訂單，因此將更多的成本分攤到更多的單位上，這就是為什麼你會得到積極的累積追趕調整。所以這種情況不會再發生。因此，我們預計第一季基本上不會出現任何有意義的累積漁獲量調整。所以這確實是第四季與第一季的巨大差異。

Got it. So the core earnings should be somewhat similar to the fourth quarter and the first quarter?

知道了。那麼第四季和第一季的核心獲利應該有些相似吧？

Yes. I would think that just generally our -- because of -- in general, we would not expect because of these large orders creating cumulative catch-up adjustments. I would -- I don't know that Defense earnings will move around quite as much from quarter-to-quarter this next year.

是的。我認為，一般來說，我們不會期望這些大訂單會造成累積的追趕調整。我不知道明年國防收入的季度變化是否會如此大。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Question on going back to Vocational and more specifically, just on AeroTech. Can you maybe speak to what you're seeing there from just the integration as well as if you look at $730 million or so in revenues is quite a bit above what we would have thought. I don't know if that was a wrong expectation or what, but maybe just speak to kind of just order activity and then ultimately, your thoughts around the synergy expectation for '24.

關於回到職業，更具體地說，關於航空技術的問題。您能談談您從整合中看到的情況嗎？如果您看到 7.3 億美元左右的收入，這遠遠超出了我們的預期。我不知道這是一個錯誤的期望還是什麼，但也許只是談論某種公正的訂單活動，然後最終，你對 24 年協同期望的想法。

Yes. So it's John. I'll answer this question. We feel even better today about AeroTech than the day that we closed on the acquisition. We love the end market. We already understood a little bit about the end market because of some of the other products we have already been supplying into the airport marketplace. Now we're a much bigger player in the airport end market in terms of ground service equipment. But this is a growing market, what we believe it's going to be in long-term secular growth. We see our position is really strong. We see the fit between the technology that AeroTech has already been working on with our technological capabilities.

是的。所以是約翰。我來回答這個問題。今天我們對 AeroTech 的感覺比我們完成收購的那天還要好。我們喜歡終端市場。由於我們已經向機場市場供應了一些其他產品，我們已經對終端市場有了一些了解。現在，就地面服務設備而言，我們在機場終端市場中佔據了更大的份額。但這是一個不斷成長的市場，我們相信它將實現長期的長期成長。我們看到我們的地位非常牢固。我們看到 AeroTech 已經開發的技術與我們的技術能力之間的契合度。

So you're going to see a lot of autonomous functionality continue to come into that market, which is what our customers, the big airlines and the airports want. You're going to see electrified product on runways more in the future than you do today in terms of lithium-ion electrification, but this business has really great people. It's got a great culture. It's a good cultural fit with us. And we just feel really strong about it and strong about the growth opportunities that we can get. And I can -- from a synergy perspective, the real power behind the synergies is behind the technological synergies. Of course, there's other synergies we get in terms of operating capability and that sort of thing. But the real powerful synergy long term is the technological synergies that are so strong with us in AeroTech.

因此，您將看到許多自主功能繼續進入該市場，這正是我們的客戶、大型航空公司和機場所想要的。就鋰離子電氣化而言，未來你會在跑道上看到更多電氣化的產品，但這個產業擁有非常優秀的人才。它有很棒的文化。這與我們的文化非常契合。我們對此感到非常強烈，並且對我們可以獲得的成長機會感到非常強烈。我可以——從協同效應的角度來看，綜效背後的真正力量在於技術協同效應。當然，我們在營運能力等方面也獲得了其他協同效應。但從長遠來看，真正強大的協同效應是我們在航空技術領域的強大技術協同效應。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的賽斯‧韋伯 (Seth Weber)。

A quick question. I think what I heard in the remarks was $35 million of profit headwinds in the Defense segment for 2024 related to the new NGDV ramp and stuff like that. I guess is that correct? And how should we think about that number as we go into 2025 as your production starts to ramp, does that $35 million headwind start to come down? Does it go away? I'm just trying to think through the Defense margins for the next couple of years.

一個簡單的問題。我認為我在演講中聽到的是 2024 年國防領域與新的 NGDV 坡道等相關的 3500 萬美元的利潤逆風。我想這是正確的嗎？進入 2025 年，隨著產量開始增加，我們該如何看待這個數字，3500 萬美元的逆風是否開始下降？它會消失嗎？我只是想考慮一下未來幾年的國防利潤。

Yes. Yes, you quantified that correctly at $35 million. That's really a first-year phenomenon. So once you're ramping up, I would expect that as we sort of flip to next year into 2025, there's going to be meaningful growth in revenue from NGDV and then 2026 is going to be sort of full rate production. That's a program we've talked a lot about. It's going to be -- it's a great good solid margin program. So that -- it's really just a first-year phenomenon when you're kind of working through that low-rate production, which is going to start in April.

是的。是的，您正確地將其量化為 3500 萬美元。這確實是第一年的現象。因此，一旦你開始加速，我預計當我們從明年轉向 2025 年時，NGDV 的收入將會出現有意義的成長，然後 2026 年將達到全速生產。這是我們已經討論過很多次的計劃。這將是一個非常好的、穩定的利潤計劃。所以，這實際上只是第一年的現象，當你正在經歷低速生產時，這將在四月開始。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just on your comment about on Access, I think you said $20 million of new product development. I'm just trying to conceptualize, like is that the new normal going forward? And I'm just trying to think through like our incremental margins structurally closer to 20% versus 25% that we used to think about historically, like is this a business that you're just going to be throwing more money at big picture and like is this going to be an annual kind of step-up that we're going to see going forward? Or is there something unusual here that's triggering this big increase.

好的。這很有幫助。關於您對 Access 的評論，我認為您提到了 2000 萬美元的新產品開發費用。我只是想概念化，這是否是未來的新常態？我只是想仔細考慮一下，我們的增量利潤率在結構上接近 20%，而我們過去常常考慮歷史上的 25%，就像這是一項你需要在大局上投入更多資金的業務，例如這是否會成為我們未來每年都會看到的進步？或者這裡是否有什麼不尋常的事情觸發瞭如此大的增長。

No, I wouldn't normally -- I think that it's -- I think if you look at earlier last year in particular, I think we're probably more at that run rate for NPD right now. Earlier in the year, though, there was -- with supply chain challenges, there's a lot of focus on battling through supply chain challenges and so on. So I would -- I truly -- I think the way to think about Access margins is the 20% to 25% incrementals. It varies a bit based on product mix, heavier boom, it's going to be generally higher. Some other products could be slightly lower. So I think right now, it's really sort of the math equation that revenue is up about $200 million. And it just so happens with NPD being up, that ends up being about 10% of the incremental.

不，我通常不會——我認為是——我想如果你特別看看去年早些時候，我認為我們現在可能更傾向於 NPD 的運行速度。不過，今年早些時候，由於供應鏈面臨挑戰，人們非常關注如何應對供應鏈挑戰等。所以我會——我真的——我認為考慮 Access 利潤的方法是 20% 到 25% 的增量。根據產品組合的不同，它會有所不同，繁榮越重，它通常會更高。其他一些產品可能會略低。所以我認為現在，收入增加了約 2 億美元，這確實是一種數學方程式。當 NPD 上升時，情況就會如此，最終約佔增量的 10%。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Raso 和 Evercore 的對話。

After the first quarter guide, you're implying the rest of the year has down earnings year-over-year. And I'm just trying to understand if you could break up the $80 million of new product development, the investments you spoke of between Access, Vocational and Defense. What's the cadence of that throughout the year? Just so we get a sense of how you're thinking about the rest of the year after 1Q being down. I also know the interest expense will be higher obviously driven a bit by AeroTech. What is the interest expense number for the full year as well?

在第一季指南之後，您暗示今年剩餘時間的利潤同比下降。我只是想了解您是否可以分拆 8000 萬美元的新產品開發，即您所說的接入、職業和國防之間的投資。全年的節奏是怎麼樣的？只是為了讓我們了解您在第一季下滑之後對今年剩餘時間的看法。我還知道利息支出顯然會更高，這顯然是由 AeroTech 推動的。全年的利息支出是多少？

Yes. I would say -- now keep in mind with interest, there's two dynamics because we had about $800 million of cash last year. So we were earning about 5% on that early in the year. So I would look at interest as being a $35 million headwind year-over-year. So I think that's certainly a good question on your part there that is a driver. The NPD is fairly spread over the course of the year. So there's not a big dynamic. I think if you were to look at all the quarters, what I would expect is that you're going to see the 2 highest quarters are going to be the middle 2 quarters. I think we do certainly have start-up expenses related to Defense. So that comes into play as well. And that's sort of over the course of the year. So I don't really see a step-up necessarily in NPD or those start-up costs will be sort of the heavy in the second quarter as well. So that's how I think about...

是的。我想說的是——現在請記住，有兩個動態，因為我們去年有大約 8 億美元的現金。所以今年年初我們的收入約為 5%。因此，我認為利息是同比 3500 萬美元的阻力。所以我認為對於身為司機的你來說這當然是一個很好的問題。 NPD 在一年中分佈相當廣泛。所以沒有太大的動力。我認為，如果您查看所有季度，我預計您會看到最高的兩個季度將是中間的兩個季度。我認為我們確實有與國防相關的啟動費用。這也發揮了作用。這就是一年中的情況。因此，我確實認為 NPD 不一定會增加，否則第二季的啟動成本也會很高。所以我就是這麼想的...

The interest expense and Mike, on an absolute level, you're thinking of it for the full year around $100 million? That's the net interest income and the whole net...

利息支出和麥克，從絕對水準來看，您認為全年的利息支出約為 1 億美元？這是淨利息收入和整個淨收入......

So net-net, I would say -- net-net, I would expect that net interest expense is going to be up about $35 million versus prior year.

因此，我想說的是，我預計淨利息支出將比去年增加約 3,500 萬美元。

Okay. So '23 was net $53 million-ish. It's like $85 million, the net of those 2-line items, interest expense and interest income, right? That's the comparison. The $35 million of those 2 net. Correct? I just want to make sure I'm modeling that correctly.

好的。所以 23 年的淨收入大約是 5300 萬美元。扣除利息支出和利息收入這兩行項目後，大約是 8500 萬美元，對吧？這就是比較。其中 2 人淨值 3500 萬美元。正確的？我只是想確保我的建模正確。

I think that's correct.

我認為這是正確的。

Yes. Yes, you're right there. You're right.

是的。是的，你就在那裡。你說得對。

Okay. And real quick. I'm just curious, the backlogs are impressive and how far they go out. I assume you're starting to have some conversations about '25 for the Access business. Just curious, obviously, folks are aware yourself and others are adding capacity. Any conversation impact from these capacity additions? I mean, we know the players in Mexico and what they're looking to add and not saying historically, they've penetrated the rental companies significantly, but maybe they're now getting around the import tariffs and so forth with the base in Mexico. So just curious, what are the early conversations like with that capacity potentially coming out.

好的。而且真的很快。我只是很好奇，積壓的訂單數量令人印象深刻，而且已經完成了多遠。我猜想您已經開始討論 '25 的 Access 業務了。只是好奇，顯然，人們意識到自己和其他人正在增加容量。這些容量增加對對話有影響嗎？我的意思是，我們了解墨西哥的參與者以及他們想要添加的內容，而不是說歷史上，他們已經顯著滲透到租賃公司，但也許他們現在正在墨西哥的基地繞過進口關稅等。所以只是好奇，早期的對話是什麼樣的，可能會出現這種能力。

Well, I'll answer, this is John. David, I'll answer that question. When we look at the capacity we're adding in Jefferson City, Tennessee, it does a lot for us, and it does a lot for our customers. And we need that capacity, and we study this very carefully, and we study it carefully even with our customers. I'm going to say that, first of all, with regard to telehandlers, JLG has not really had significant inventory of telehandlers in probably a decade. So when we make a significant investment to expand capacity, there really is a rigorous process that we use before we make any commitments. And we survey the market, our customers' desire to have our brands in their fleets. And we will also always build in our ability to pivot if there is a market issue that arises. We don't see a market issue on the horizon at all.

好吧，我會回答，這是約翰。大衛，我來回答這個問題。當我們看到田納西州傑斐遜市增加的容量時，它為我們做了很多事情，也為我們的客戶做了很多事情。我們需要這種能力，我們非常仔細地研究這一點，甚至與我們的客戶一起仔細研究。我要說的是，首先，關於伸縮臂叉裝機，JLG 可能已經有十年沒有真正擁有大量伸縮臂叉裝機庫存了。因此，當我們進行重大投資以擴大產能時，在做出任何承諾之前，我們確實會使用嚴格的流程。我們調查了市場，了解客戶希望在他們的車隊中擁有我們的品牌。如果出現市場問題，我們也將始終增強我們的轉型能力。我們根本不認為市場會出現問題。

We understand the competitive dynamics, but we also understand our position in the market and what our customers' desire is for our product in their fleets. And then we talk -- that includes our new Ag end market. that we're already serving today, and we see the significant opportunity that we have with the channels that we're serving there. So we feel that we have a very prudent well-thought-out capacity plan for Access equipment. And that capacity, by the way, doesn't just help us with telehandlers. It also helps us with booms where we need more capacity because it frees up boom capacity for us in other places.

我們了解競爭動態，但我們也了解我們在市場中的地位以及客戶對我們產品在其車隊中的需求。然後我們談論——這包括我們新的農業終端市場。我們今天已經在提供服務，我們看到了我們在那裡提供服務的管道所擁有的重大機會。所以我們覺得我們對 Access 設備有一個非常審慎、深思熟慮的容量計劃。順便說一句，這種能力不僅可以幫助我們使用伸縮臂叉裝機。它也幫助我們在需要更多產能的地方繁榮，因為它為我們在其他地方釋放了繁榮產能。

So this is a well-thought-out plan. We have to have the capacity to continue to meet the needs of the market, which we expect to continue to grow. And that's in spite of whatever the competitive dynamics that we see alongside us as we continue forward.

所以這是一個經過深思熟慮的計劃。我們必須有能力繼續滿足市場的需求，我們預期市場的需求將持續成長。儘管我們在繼續前進的過程中看到了各種競爭動態，但情況仍然如此。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mike Shlisky 和 ​​D.A.戴維森。

I guess I was curious why has the USPS told you about their readiness for receiving the first NGDVs and the higher run rates in 2025 and 2026. I guess I'm asking with respect to whatever EVs are sold, their kind of readiness on the infrastructure for charging and then more broadly, the ability, the driver training and the mechanic training. I'm just kind of curious to see how confident you are that when you're ready, they will be ready to actually take the vehicle?

我想我很好奇為什麼 USPS 告訴你他們準備接收第一批 NGDV 以及 2025 年和 2026 年更高的運行率。我想我問的是關於銷售的任何電動汽車，他們對基礎設施的準備情況充電，更廣泛地說，是能力、駕駛員培訓和機械師培訓。我只是很好奇，想知道當你準備好後，他們會準備好實際使用車輛嗎？

Yes. Great question. This is John. I'll answer it. We work really closely with the United States Postal Service including myself and the Postmaster General. I mean we're very connected. We know where they are planning to put the first vehicles. We know what their readiness is. We are planning to work very closely with the United States Postal Service to onboard vehicles and as you mentioned, training and making sure that things go really well in the early days. We talk about our slow ramp. We start production in a couple of months, and we talk about our slow ramp. Part of that slow ramp is because together with the United States Postal Service, we want to make sure right from the beginning, we really get this right.

是的。很好的問題。這是約翰。我來回答一下。我們與美國郵政局（包括我本人和郵政局長）密切合作。我的意思是我們的聯繫非常緊密。我們知道他們計劃將第一批車輛放置在哪裡。我們知道他們的準備情況。我們計劃與美國郵政局在車輛裝載方面密切合作，正如您所提到的，進行培訓並確保早期一切進展順利。我們談論我們的緩慢斜坡。我們將在幾個月後開始生產，我們將談論我們的緩慢成長。緩慢增長的部分原因是我們希望與美國郵政服務一起，從一開始就確保我們確實做到了這一點。

And then we start to increase production more significantly in 2025, to get the full rate production in 2026. That's all well-thought-out together with the Postal Service to make sure that we're putting vehicles where we're ready to put vehicles and where the Postal Service is ready to put vehicles. So we feel like we've got a really good solid plan and the Postal Service is really leading the way on their development of being ready to take vehicles.

然後我們開始在 2025 年更大幅度地增加產量，以便在 2026 年實現全速生產。這都是與郵政服務一起深思熟慮的，以確保我們將車輛放置在我們準備放置車輛的地方以及郵政服務準備停放車輛的地方。因此，我們覺得我們已經有了一個非常好的、可靠的計劃，並且郵政服務在準備接收車輛的發展方面確實處於領先地位。

Okay. Great. And just to follow up on Defense more broadly. Can you comment on the bidding pipeline you've got for various contracts? Has that grown over the last 12 months? Do you feel like there's actually fewer opportunities out there? And maybe as a sub question there just about the NGDV. Are there any non-military vehicles that you're looking at over the next couple of years as well, whether it's private fleets or et cetera, for delivery.

好的。偉大的。只是為了更廣泛地跟進國防。您能否對各種合約的投標管道發表評論？過去 12 個月有成長嗎？是不是感覺外面的機會越來越少了？也許作為一個關於 NGDV 的子問題。未來幾年您是否還會考慮用於交付的非軍用車輛，無論是私人車隊還是其他車輛。

Sorry, when -- the first part of your question, that was related to last-mile delivery vehicles, I think, is that right?

抱歉，您問題的第一部分與最後一哩送貨車輛有關，我認為是這樣嗎？

No, I was actually asking more broadly about the Defense bidding pipeline in general, and then I was also asking if you could comment specifically on any private sector that you have in the pipeline, maybe after 2026.

不，我實際上是在更廣泛地詢問國防招標的總體情況，然後我還問您是否可以對正在考慮的任何私營部門（也許是在 2026 年之後）發表具體評論。

Yes. Okay. So first of all, in our Defense business, our core Defense business, we've got a really solid foundation of programs, and this includes our core product of tactical wheeled vehicles of over $1 billion. And this is a good portfolio of businesses. I'm talking about post JLTV really, but that includes JLTV for international customers.

是的。好的。首先，在我們的國防業務、我們的核心國防業務中，我們擁有非常堅實的專案基礎，其中包括我們價值超過 10 億美元的戰術輪式車輛的核心產品。這是一個很好的業務組合。我真正談論的是後 JLTV，但這包括針對國際客戶的 JLTV。

We have been investing a lot in winning programs in the combat space, which is really important for us because that's the priority for the Department of Defense. So that -- it's a place where we can showcase our capability and our technology and earn good margins while we do it. So when you look at that, we won the Stryker vehicle that's considered a combat program, where we won a prototype award for the RCV, which is robotic combat vehicle. That's a big program. And we've won some other smaller programs as well. When you add them all up, it's really a healthy book of business. And it's at a healthy margin level.

我們在戰鬥領域的致勝項目上投入了大量資金，這對我們來說非常重要，因為這是國防部的首要任務。因此，這是一個我們可以展示我們的能力和技術並在我們這樣做的同時賺取豐厚利潤的地方。因此，當你看到這一點時，我們贏得了被視為戰鬥計劃的 Stryker 車輛，其中我們贏得了 RCV（機器人戰車）原型獎。這是一個大計劃。我們還贏得了其他一些較小的項目。當你把它們全部加起來時，這確實是一本健康的商業書。而且其利潤率處於健康的水平。

When you look at some of those combat vehicles, the margins are better than our core tactical wheeled vehicle program. So as we go forward, our core Defense business without the DoD's contract for JLTV is a little bit smaller, but it's still a really healthy book of business for us, and we expect it to continue to be so. And we'll continue to divide for, and we'll continue to win some combat programs along the way, which really help to enhance that business.

當你看看其中一些戰車時，你會發現利潤比我們的核心戰術輪式車輛計劃要好。因此，隨著我們的前進，如果沒有國防部的 JLTV 合同，我們的核心國防業務會稍微小一些，但對我們來說仍然是一個非常健康的業務，我們預計它會繼續如此。我們將繼續劃分，我們將繼續贏得一些戰鬥項目，這確實有助於增強這項業務。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

I'm just curious how much visibility to margins do you think you have at this point in access in 2024? What could move it? I mean if you're sold out and presumably, with the view that you're sold out, I imagine you can lock in much of your costs for the year. So how much of those costs do you have locked in. And what could still move the margins from here?

我只是好奇，您認為 2024 年目前您的利潤率可見度有多少？什麼可以移動它？我的意思是，如果你的產品已經賣完了，而且大概，鑑於你已經賣完了，我想你可以鎖定今年的大部分成本。那麼，您鎖定了其中多少成本。還有什麼可以改變利潤率呢？

I think you're spot on from a cost perspective. We -- from a lock perspective, we have pretty meaningful locks on steel in place, particularly the hot-rolled coil, some contracts in place on plate as well. There's -- we'll obviously continue to watch inflation, which is still present, as John said, that's moderated. So I think it really comes down to production throughput, supply chain, those types of things, things that you would expect in a typical year because we have -- because of the great visibility we have. So overall, we'd say that entering the year, we feel as though we have pretty good visibility to our margins.

我認為從成本角度來看你是對的。從鎖定的角度來看，我們對鋼材（特別是熱軋捲）有相當有意義的鎖定，也有一些板材合約。我們顯然會繼續關注通貨膨脹，正如約翰所說，通貨膨脹仍然存在，而且已經有所緩和。所以我認為這實際上取決於生產吞吐量、供應鏈，這些類型的事情，你在典型年份中所期望的事情，因為我們擁有——因為我們擁有巨大的知名度。因此，總的來說，我們認為進入今年，我們感覺我們的利潤率有相當好的可見性。

Okay. Great. And then you have a $12 EPS midpoint target out there for 2025. Granted, it was introduced almost 2 years ago in very different conditions. I guess I'm curious how you're thinking about momentum in Vocational and to some extent, in Defense. I mean it seems like there's going to be some debate about Access direction for 2025 for a while, or maybe you would disagree with that. But I guess I'm curious at the moment, do you think you have enough positive momentum in your, say, non-Access businesses or even in general, just to hit your 2025 targets?

好的。偉大的。然後，2025 年每股收益中點目標為 12 美元。當然，它是在大約兩年前在非常不同的條件下引入的。我想我很好奇你如何看待職業方面以及某種程度上國防方面的勢頭。我的意思是，關於 2025 年的訪問方向似乎將存在一段時間的爭論，或者您可能會不同意。但我想我現在很好奇，您認為您的非 Access 業務甚至一般業務是否有足夠的積極勢頭來實現 2025 年的目標？

Well, the simple answer to your question is yes. I mean, we have continued to stand by our 2025 guidance. When you look at our business, we're a bit capacity constrained in 2024. But when you look at our business and what we're going to continue to do beyond 2024 and the health of the end markets, we would -- we believe that and firmly believe that Access is in a great position. The markets are strong. We talk to our customers all the time about what to expect beyond 2024. We -- when you look at some of the dynamics happening, we expect that to be a really good year as well in the Access Equipment segment. But then you look at all the other end markets that we're serving, you look at the material ramp in Postal Service vehicles in 2025. We look at the continued expansion of our Vocational business in 2025. We've always have never wavered from our 2025 long-range guidance that we have provided.

嗯，你的問題的簡單答案是肯定的。我的意思是，我們繼續堅持 2025 年的指導方針。當你審視我們的業務時，你會發現我們在2024 年的產能會受到一些限制。但是當你審視我們的業務以及我們在2024 年之後將繼續做的事情以及終端市場的健康狀況時，我們會- 我們相信並堅信 Access 處於有利地位。市場強勁。我們一直與客戶討論 2024 年後的預期。當你看到正在發生的一些動態時，我們預計這對接入設備領域來說也是非常好的一年。但是，你看看我們服務的所有其他終端市場，看看 2025 年郵政服務車輛的材料增長。我們看看 2025 年我們的職業業務的持續擴張。我們始終從未動搖過我們提供的2025 年長期指導。

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe just first question on Vocational, another really strong quarter of order growth there. Anything on like the underlying businesses and the drivers of that strength?

也許只是關於職業的第一個問題，這是另一個訂單成長非常強勁的季度。有什麼像基礎業務和這種優勢的驅動因素嗎？

Is there anything -- I'm sorry, I missed your question. Is there...

有什麼事嗎——抱歉，我錯過了你的問題。有沒有...

Yes. Just trying to understand like if you drill down to the key drivers of Vocational like the individual businesses, where the order strength is coming from? Is it kind of across the board?

是的。只是想了解一下，如果深入了解職業行業的關鍵驅動因素（例如個體企業），訂單強度來自哪裡？這是一種全面的嗎？

Yes. Okay. I'm sorry. I just -- I maybe just misinterpreted your question. Sure, there's a lot of really healthy dynamics. Long term, look at the Fire & Emergency segment. The fleets in the Fire & Emergency segment are aged, and you couple that with really healthy municipal budgets, that's continuing to propel municipalities across North America to continue to upgrade their fleets. And then when you add to that some of the new technology that we're coming out with the Volterra electric municipal fire truck, that's going to continue to propel the market for, we believe, many years into the future as there's a lot of municipalities around the country that are really actively wanting to electrify their product. And when they electrify with our product, this is not just a sustainability initiative. This is a performance improvement. And it's a total cost of ownership improvement for municipalities and their fire fleets.

是的。好的。對不起。我只是——我可能只是誤解了你的問題。當然，有很多非常健康的動態。從長遠來看，看看消防和緊急情況部分。消防和緊急部門的車隊已經老化，再加上真正健康的市政預算，這將繼續推動北美各地的市政當局繼續升級其車隊。然後，當您添加我們在 Volterra 電動市政消防車中推出的一些新技術時，我們相信，由於有很多市政當局，這將在未來許多年內繼續推動市場全國各地都非常積極地希望其產品實現電氣化。當他們使用我們的產品實現電氣化時，這不僅僅是一項永續發展舉措。這是性能的改進。這也改善了市政當局及其消防隊的整體擁有成本。

You look at the environmental services business with our electric refuse and recycling vehicles, even the traditional product that we have. This is a healthy market where our customers are all continuing to look at fleet replacement and upgrading to electric vehicles in the future. And that's what we're preparing to allow them to do.

你看看我們的電動垃圾和回收車輛的環境服務業務，甚至是我們擁有的傳統產品。這是一個健康的市場，我們的客戶都在未來繼續關注車隊更換和升級為電動車。這就是我們準備好允許他們做的事情。

The airport markets, you look at the need for more capacity every time you hear the CEO of a major airline talk about, we need to continue to expand capacity. They're not just talking about airplanes. Every time you add an airplane to your fleet, you've got to add ground services equipment. You look at global airport expansion that's continued to go on -- projected to continue to go on for years into the future. That's all -- that all continues to bode well for our AeroTech business. So the dynamics in our Vocational business are really, really solid.

在機場市場，每次你聽到一家大型航空公司的執行長談到我們需要繼續擴大運力時，你就會看到需要更多的運力。他們不僅僅是在談論飛機。每次您為機隊添加飛機時，都必須添加地面服務設備。你可以看到全球機場的擴建仍在繼續進行中——預計未來幾年仍將繼續進行。就這樣——這一切對我們的航空技術業務來說都是一個好兆頭。因此，我們職業業務的活力非常非常強勁。

John, definitely encouraging to hear all of that. And I guess just last question is capital allocation thoughts. You guys have been pretty active on the M&A front lately. How's the pipeline? And should we expect maybe a bit more of a shift away from M&A since you're integrating AeroTech this year?

約翰，聽到這一切絕對令人鼓舞。我想最後一個問題是資本配置的想法。你們最近在併購方面非常活躍。管道怎麼樣？自從你們今年整合了 AeroTech 以來，我們是否應該期待更多的併購轉變？

I would not say that there would be a shift away from M&A. We've got an always-on mentality. If you're really truly an acquisitive company, you have to have an always-on mentality because good M&A is a process of patients, so to speak. You really have to know where you want to acquire, and you have to be very, very patient until the right opportunity comes. And if you don't have an always on a constant mentality of paying attention to where do you want to be and what targets make sense in terms of a fit for our company, then you miss the opportunities when they arise. So it's really hard to predict when that's going to happen, but it will happen again. And our always-on pipeline will be in play for quite a while because we have a great balance sheet and we have the opportunity to continue to add value to this company by doing that.

我不會說併購會發生轉變。我們有一種永遠在線的心態。如果你真的是一家真正的收購公司，你必須有一種永遠在線的心態，因為可以說，好的併購是一個耐心的過程。你真的必須知道你想在哪裡獲得，並且你必須非常非常有耐心，直到合適的機會到來。如果你沒有一致的心態去專注於你想要達到的目標以及哪些目標對我們公司來說是有意義的，那麼當機會出現時你就會錯失良機。所以很難預測什麼時候會發生，但它會再次發生。我們始終在線的管道將在相當長一段時間內發揮作用，因為我們擁有良好的資產負債表，並且我們有機會繼續透過這樣做為這家公司增加價值。

Now having said that, we always expect to return 25% to 35% of our free cash flow to shareholders, we continue to increase our dividend that you saw today, and we'll continue to do share buybacks and we kind of weigh that together with when we have opportunities to make acquisitions. So I think that's the color that I'll add on that.

話雖如此，我們始終期望將 25% 至 35% 的自由現金流返還給股東，我們將繼續增加您今天看到的股息，我們將繼續進行股票回購，我們將一起權衡這一點當我們有機會進行收購時。所以我想這就是我要添加的顏色。

Our final question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

John, to your comment on being capacity constrained this year, can you quantify the level of incremental capacity for '25 that you expect relative to the $10.4 billion revenue guide this year?

John，對於您對今年產能受限的評論，您能否量化您預計的 25 年相對於今年 104 億美元收入指南的增量產能水準？

Certainly, there's a step-up. I guess it's kind of early to quantify it, Steve, but there's a meaningful step-up if you think about the Murfreesboro facility for Vocational, which is an 800,000-square-foot facility or 800,000-square-foot-plus, we're going to have post coming online next year, which is going to be a meaningful contributor. The revenue contribution is pretty small. It's going to be meaningful. And I think talking about 2025, that's going to be a meaningful contributor to profitability. And of course, we've talked about Access having -- there's a lot of capacity that becomes available that you're not necessarily going to have year 1 sales on that, but we're really investing for the long term. So we see step-up opportunities there as well. So as we look to next year, we just don't see the same level of constraints that we're facing today.

當然，還有一個進步。我想現在量化它還為時過早，史蒂夫，但如果你考慮一下默弗里斯伯勒職業學院的設施，這是一個有意義的進步，這是一個800,000 平方英尺的設施，或者超過800,000平方英尺，我們明年將會有帖子上線，這將是一個有意義的貢獻者。收入貢獻很小。這將是有意義的。我認為談到 2025 年，這將對盈利能力做出有意義的貢獻。當然，我們已經討論過 Access 擁有大量可用容量，您不一定會在第一年獲得銷售，但我們確實是在進行長期投資。因此，我們也在那裡看到了提升的機會。因此，當我們展望明年時，我們並沒有看到今天所面臨的同樣程度的限制。

I guess, does that suggest that organic growth ex price could be like 10%? Or should we be thinking mid-single digit just to help level set how people are expecting the profitable growth commentary that you talked about in the press release.

我想，這是否表明扣除價格因素後的有機成長可能會達到 10% 左右？或者我們是否應該考慮中個位數只是為了幫助確定人們如何預期您在新聞稿中談到的獲利成長評論。

Yes, I don't know that I'm comfortable to give you a number right now, but let's just say, in 2025, we expect it to be a material number.

是的，我不知道現在是否可以給你一個數字，但我們預計到 2025 年，這將是一個重要的數字。

Got it. And then just one quick one. John, going back to your comment on direct commercial sales for JLTV, are those predictable enough that you're building some of that into your internal model for '25 and beyond? Or is that unpredictable, meaning some years will be 0 and some years could have a material benefit?

知道了。然後只是一個快速的。約翰，回到您對 JLTV 直接商業銷售的評論，這些內容是否足夠可預測，以至於您將其中的一些內容構建到 25 年及以後的內部模型中？或者這是不可預測的，意味著有些年份將為零，而有些年份可能會帶來物質利益？

I don't think we'll see years that will be 0. That's for sure. Let me just suffice it to say that those are -- that's a really good business for us. It's typically hundreds of units per year, not thousands, which would be for the DoD. But when I say that, I will say that it's not going to be surprising to hear that it's continuing to grow. That the international direct sales are continuing to grow. And I think, unfortunately, we all know why. There's unfortunately conflict in the world, and that conflict creates a desire for many countries to continue to shore up their DoD budgets. And I think that, that's why we're seeing growth in those direct sales to international customers that we have.

我認為我們不會看到年份為零。這是肯定的。我只想說，這對我們來說是一項非常好的業務。通常每年生產數百台，而不是國防部每年的數千台。但當我這麼說時，我會說，聽到它繼續增長並不奇怪。國際直銷正在持續成長。不幸的是，我認為我們都知道原因。不幸的是，世界上存在著衝突，而這種衝突讓許多國家希望繼續增加國防部預算。我認為這就是為什麼我們看到對國際客戶的直接銷售成長。

And just one quick follow-up on that. How long is the approval process? Or is there an approval process? Or can you basically take an order and ship.

對此只有一個快速跟進。審批流程需要多久時間？或有審批流程嗎？或者你基本上可以接受訂單並發貨嗎？

For direct commercial sales, it's largely going to be direct commercial sales that -- there is an approval process that it goes through.

對於直接商業銷售來說，很大程度上是直接商業銷售——它需要經過一個審批流程。

Understood. But is that a quick -- typically pretty quick? Or can there be months or quarters delay getting that...

明白了。但這是很快的——通常相當快嗎？或者可能會延遲幾個月或幾個季度才能獲得...

Normally, it's pretty straightforward. There could be certain customers where it's a little bit more involved. But normally, there's a process, but we understand the process, we know how it works, and it's pretty straightforward.

通常情況下，這非常簡單。可能有些客戶的參與程度較高。但通常情況下，有一個流程，但我們了解這個流程，我們知道它是如何運作的，而且非常簡單。

Think months, not years.

想想幾個月，而不是幾年。

Mr. Davidson, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you.

戴維森先生，我現在想把發言權交還給你。

Great. Thanks, Christine, and thanks for joining us today, everybody. We're pleased to be entering 2024 with momentum and a strong outlook. We will be participating in several analyst conferences in February and March. Perhaps we'll see you there. And please reach out to us if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

偉大的。謝謝克里斯汀，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們很高興以強勁的勢頭和強勁的前景進入 2024 年。我們將參加二月和三月的幾次分析師會議。也許我們會在那裡見到你。如果您有任何後續問題，請與我們聯絡。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。