Oshkosh Corp (OSK) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2023 First Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到豪士科公司 2023 財年第一季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，豪士科公司投資者關係高級副總裁帕特戴維森。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our first quarter results. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了第一季度業績。我們的網站 oshkoshcorp.com 上提供了該新聞稿的副本。今天的電話會議正在進行網絡直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議期間使用的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，也可在我們的網站上找到。音頻回放和幻燈片演示將在我們的網站上提供大約 12 個月。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

現在請參閱該演示文稿的幻燈片 2。我們隨後的評論，包括對您問題的回答，包含我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天早上向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述的事項。我們不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些陳述可能要到我們下一次季度收益電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。

Our presenters today include John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Pack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我們今天的演講者包括總裁兼首席執行官 John Pfeifer；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Mike Pack。

Please turn to Slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, John.

請轉到幻燈片 3，我會把它交給你，John。

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report Oshkosh Corporation's strong results for the first quarter of 2023, with revenues of $2.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.59, both representing meaningful improvement over the prior year quarter. We continued the positive momentum that began in the second half of 2022 and our teams remain focused on solid execution for our customers.

謝謝帕特，大家早上好。我很高興地報告豪士科公司 2023 年第一季度的強勁業績，收入為 23 億美元，調整後每股收益為 1.59 美元，均較上年同期有了顯著改善。我們延續了 2022 年下半年開始的積極勢頭，我們的團隊仍然專注於為客戶提供可靠的執行服務。

As a result of our strong Q1 performance, robust demand and progress on our key operational initiatives, I'm pleased to announce that we are raising our full year adjusted earnings per share expectations to be in the range of $6 compared to our previous estimate of $5.50. Mike will provide more details in his section.

由於我們第一季度的強勁表現、強勁的需求和我們關鍵運營計劃的進展，我很高興地宣布，與我們之前的估計相比，我們將全年調整後的每股收益預期提高到 6 美元的範圍內5.50 美元。 Mike 將在他的部分提供更多詳細信息。

Our Access segment led the significant year-over-year improvement by delivering operating margin of 11.3% in the quarter. Order flow across the board was robust during the quarter at just over $3 billion, driving another consolidated record backlog approaching $15 billion. we remain confident in both near-term and longer-term growth.

我們的 Access 部門在本季度實現了 11.3% 的營業利潤率，從而實現了顯著的同比增長。本季度全線訂單流強勁，略高於 30 億美元，推動另一項綜合積壓訂單接近 150 億美元。我們對近期和長期增長充滿信心。

We view construction markets as strong, particularly with the large number of mega projects around the country. In fact, metrics for the vast majority of construction categories point to continued growth for the foreseeable future. The Access equipment fleet age remains elevated and new use cases continue to grow beyond construction. Our view on our end markets was bolstered by recent discussions with customers at the ConExpo Show in March.

我們認為建築市場強勁，尤其是在全國有大量大型項目的情況下。事實上，絕大多數建築類別的指標都表明在可預見的未來會持續增長。 Access 設備機隊的年齡仍然很高，新的用例繼續在建設之外增長。最近在 3 月份的 ConExpo 展會上與客戶的討論加強了我們對終端市場的看法。

We also see healthy demand across the fire truck, RCV and delivery markets as well, bolstered by solid market dynamics and long-term growth, driven by our new electric vehicle offerings. We are investing in capacity as well as exciting new products that support our plans for growth to drive long-term shareholder value.

在我們新電動汽車產品的推動下，我們還看到消防車、RCV 和交付市場的健康需求，這得益於穩固的市場動態和長期增長。我們正在投資產能以及令人興奮的新產品，以支持我們的增長計劃以推動長期股東價值。

Notably, we're investing in capacity for our USPS next-generation delivery vehicles, our Vocational segment for both e-RCVs and Pierce fire trucks as well as our Access segment, where we are transitioning 500,000 square feet to telehandler manufacturing in Jefferson City, Tennessee.

值得注意的是，我們正在投資我們的 USPS 下一代運載工具的產能，我們的 e-RCV 和 Pierce 消防車的職業部門以及我們的 Access 部門，我們正在將 500,000 平方英尺轉移到杰斐遜城的伸縮臂叉車製造，田納西州。

We also took a number of important steps in the quarter to continue to expand our portfolio with next generation of innovative products. We completed the acquisition of Hinowa in our Access segment and look forward to attractive growth opportunities with this well-run Italian manufacturer of compact crawler booms and tracked equipment.

我們還在本季度採取了一些重要步驟，以繼續通過下一代創新產品擴展我們的產品組合。我們在 Access 部門完成了對 Hinowa 的收購，並期待與這家經營良好的意大利緊湊型履帶臂和履帶設備製造商一起獲得有吸引力的增長機會。

In February, we announced the launch of the first fully integrated, purpose-built, all-electric refuse collection vehicle in our new Vocational segment. I'll talk more about this revolutionary new product in a few minutes.

2 月，我們宣佈在新的職業部門推出首款完全集成的專用全電動垃圾收集車。我將在幾分鐘後詳細討論這個革命性的新產品。

Additionally, we're pleased with the integration progress for the Vocational segment, which we view as an outstanding growth platform for Oshkosh. Last quarter, we announced plans to combine our Fire & Emergency and Commercial segments to drive enhanced efficiencies while better leveraging our scale and technology development at an accelerated pace. We also completed the divestiture of our rear discharge concrete mixer business in the quarter to further focus on our core growth areas.

此外，我們對職業部門的整合進展感到滿意，我們將其視為 Oshkosh 的出色增長平台。上個季度，我們宣布了合併我們的消防與應急部門和商業部門的計劃，以提高效率，同時更好地利用我們的規模和加速技術發展。我們還在本季度完成了後卸式混凝土攪拌機業務的剝離，以進一步專注於我們的核心增長領域。

And finally, we're honored to have been selected with the world's most ethical designation for the eighth consecutive year.

最後，我們很榮幸連續八年被選為世界上最具道德的稱號。

Please turn to Slide 4, and we'll get started on our segment updates with Access. The team at Access built on their strong finish to 2022 with an excellent first quarter in 2023. We benefited from better-than-expected shipments due to modestly improved supply chain conditions. While supply chain challenges remain, we are seeing progress with supplier on-time delivery metrics as well as the many actions we have taken to improve throughput.

請轉到幻燈片 4，我們將開始使用 Access 進行細分更新。 Access 團隊在 2022 年的強勁表現的基礎上，在 2023 年第一季度取得了出色的成績。由於供應鏈條件的適度改善，我們受益於好於預期的出貨量。雖然供應鏈挑戰依然存在，但我們看到供應商準時交貨指標方面取得了進展，並且我們已採取許多措施來提高吞吐量。

Demand remains very strong for JLG aerial work platforms and telehandlers as fleet ages remain elevated. In fact, fleet ages have not improved since we reported average fleet ages in North America of over 60 months during our Investor Day in May of 2022. New use cases as well as technology innovations continue to improve demand for our products.

隨著機隊年齡的增加，對捷爾杰高空作業平台和伸縮臂叉車的需求仍然非常強勁。事實上，自從我們在 2022 年 5 月的投資者日報告北美的平均機隊年齡超過 60 個月以來，機隊年齡並沒有改善。新的用例和技術創新繼續提高對我們產品的需求。

In addition to fleet ages, we believe high equipment utilization rates and the impact of mega projects and other construction verticals continue to point to strong demand for our market-leading JLG products for the foreseeable future. Orders remained healthy at $1.2 billion in the quarter, leading to another record backlog of $4.4 billion.

除了機隊年齡外，我們認為高設備利用率以及大型項目和其他垂直建築的影響繼續表明在可預見的未來對我們市場領先的 JLG 產品的強勁需求。本季度訂單保持在 12 億美元的健康水平，導致積壓訂單再次創下 44 億美元的記錄。

We believe that 2023 will be a strong year with revenues limited by supply chain conditions. While we do not expect significant supply chain improvement in 2023, we are well-positioned to deliver stronger results in the event supply chain improves faster than current expectations.

我們認為 2023 年將是強勁的一年，收入受到供應鏈條件的限制。雖然我們預計 2023 年供應鏈不會有顯著改善，但我們有能力在供應鏈改善速度超過當前預期的情況下取得更強勁的成果。

Please turn to Slide 5, and I'll review our Defense segment. As expected, Defense segment revenues were down year-over-year in the quarter, in line with customer requirements. Continued inflation, including higher-than-expected steel cost forecast contributed to the low operating margin in the quarter. As discussed last quarter, we believe that Q1 will be Defense's lowest quarter of the year for operating income.

請轉到幻燈片 5，我將回顧我們的防禦部分。正如預期的那樣，本季度國防部門的收入同比下降，符合客戶要求。持續的通貨膨脹，包括高於預期的鋼鐵成本預測，導致本季度營業利潤率較低。正如上個季度所討論的那樣，我們認為第一季度將是國防部今年營業收入最低的一個季度。

In February, we were disappointed to learn that we did not win the JLTV follow-on contract. The contract was won at a pricing level that would be unacceptable to Oshkosh. Of course, we are protesting the award based on the evaluation of financial, operational and technical capabilities. In short, we believe the U.S. Army is assuming significant risk based on their decision, and we expect the Government Accountability Office to issue a judgment in mid-June. As a reminder, we expect to deliver JLTVs through the end of 2024 under the current contract.

2 月份，我們很失望地得知我們沒有贏得 JLTV 的後續合同。贏得合同的定價水平對於豪士科來說是無法接受的。當然，我們反對基於財務、運營和技術能力評估的獎勵。簡而言之，我們認為美國陸軍正在根據他們的決定承擔重大風險，我們預計政府問責辦公室將在 6 月中旬發布判決。提醒一下，我們希望根據當前合同在 2024 年底之前交付 JLTV。

With the tactical wheeled vehicle market under pressure, we continue to focus our efforts on more fruitful product categories such as combat and delivery. We have won some outstanding contracts and are vying for others. The DoD's down-select decision for the next phases of the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle, or OMFV program is expected this summer. We are confident that our proposed solution delivers a high level of innovation and technical capability, which we believe places us in a strong competitive position for the program.

隨著戰術輪式車輛市場面臨壓力，我們繼續將精力集中在更富有成果的產品類別上，例如戰鬥和交付。我們已經贏得了一些出色的合同，並且正在爭奪其他合同。預計國防部將在今年夏天做出對可選有人駕駛戰車或 OMFV 計劃下一階段的選擇決定。我們相信我們提出的解決方案提供了高水平的創新和技術能力，我們相信這使我們在該計劃中處於強大的競爭地位。

Awards are expected to be announced for 3 competitors with a value for each bidder expected to be $886 million over a 54-month period. We are also competing for other attractive programs such as the robotic combat vehicle or RCV.

預計將宣布 3 名競爭對手的獎項，每個投標人的價值預計在 54 個月內達到 8.86 億美元。我們還在競爭其他有吸引力的項目，例如機器人戰車或 RCV。

We continue to execute on our NGDV program for the United States Postal Service, with plans to ramp up production in 2024. Several months ago, the USPS expressed their intention to significantly increase the percentage of battery electric or BEV NGDV units in their initial delivery order. During the quarter, we received a delivery order modification that reflects the richer mix of BEV units. This is good news for the USPS, good for communities across the country and good for our product mix. We are excited about the growth of this business as we head towards launch.

我們繼續為美國郵政服務執行我們的 NGDV 計劃，併計劃在 2024 年提高產量。幾個月前，USPS 表示他們打算大幅增加電池電動或 BEV NGDV 單位在其初始交付訂單中的百分比.在本季度，我們收到了反映 BEV 單元組合更豐富的交付訂單修改。這對 USPS 來說是個好消息，對全國各地的社區都有好處，對我們的產品組合也有好處。在我們即將推出時，我們對這項業務的增長感到興奮。

Let's turn to Slide 6 for a discussion of the Vocational segment. During our last earnings call, we announced the decision to combine our Commercial and Fire & Emergency segments to form a new segment we call our Vocational segment. We believe that the new segment provides opportunities to drive enhanced efficiencies and better leverage scale and technology development at an accelerated pace. The Vocational segment also serves as a platform for both organic and inorganic growth opportunities in several important end markets. We are in the process of integrating the businesses, which will continue throughout 2023.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 6 討論職業部分。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們宣布決定合併我們的商業和消防與緊急部門，形成一個我們稱之為職業部門的新部門。我們相信，新的細分市場提供了提高效率和更好地利用規模和加速技術發展的機會。職業部門還充當了幾個重要終端市場有機和無機增長機會的平台。我們正在整合業務，這將持續到 2023 年。

Since our announcement 3 months ago, Jim Johnson and his team have evaluated opportunities and implemented numerous changes to our structure that are expected to generate $15 million in annualized cost synergy benefits. The savings are a result of both back-office optimization as well as leveraging shared manufacturing in our new factory in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. We expect a modest impact in the second half of 2023, and the full $15 million run rate in 2024 as we ramp -- wrap up transition services related to the divestiture of the rear discharge concrete mixer business.

自 3 個月前宣布以來，Jim Johnson 和他的團隊評估了機會並對我們的結構實施了大量變革，預計將產生 1500 萬美元的年度成本協同效益。節省的費用是後台辦公室優化以及利用我們位於田納西州默弗里斯伯勒的新工廠的共享製造的結果。我們預計 2023 年下半年會產生適度影響，2024 年我們將實現 1500 萬美元的全額運行率——完成與後卸式混凝土攪拌機業務剝離相關的過渡服務。

Cost synergies are only a part of the story as we also expect to benefit from joint development for advanced technologies, particularly with electrification and autonomy. Additionally, we expect to benefit from channel synergies. We will continue to provide updates on our integration work and synergy opportunities in coming quarters.

成本協同效應只是故事的一部分，因為我們還期望從先進技術的聯合開發中受益，尤其是電氣化和自主性。此外，我們預計將從渠道協同效應中受益。我們將在未來幾個季度繼續提供有關整合工作和協同機會的最新信息。

Demand for fire trucks remains very high, driven by aging fleets and solid municipal budgets. We are continuing to invest in automation and capacity enhancements at our fire truck facilities in Wisconsin. We believe this improved capacity will help us reduce lead times that have led to a very large backlog for custom fire trucks. We believe the actions we are taking to improve parts supply as well as our capacity expansions, including robotic painting in Appleton will help us increase output in late '23 and into 2024.

在車隊老化和穩健的市政預算的推動下，對消防車的需求仍然很高。我們將繼續投資於威斯康星州消防車設施的自動化和能力提升。我們相信這種提高的能力將幫助我們減少導致定制消防車大量積壓的交貨時間。我們相信，我們為改善零件供應而採取的行動以及我們的產能擴張，包括在阿普爾頓的機器人噴漆，將幫助我們在 23 世紀末和 2024 年增加產量。

Of course, the biggest news for the segment came in February when we debuted our brand-new, state-of-the-art, fully integrated electric refuse and recycling collection vehicle. Customer reaction has been outstanding for this revolutionary zero-emission vehicle. This is the first ever fully integrated vocational vehicle built for the RCV market and its zero-emission, fully electric.

當然，該細分市場最大的新聞是在 2 月，當時我們推出了全新的、最先進的、完全集成的電動垃圾和回收收集車。客戶對這款革命性的零排放汽車的反應非常好。這是有史以來第一款專為 RCV 市場打造的完全集成的職業車輛，其零排放、全電動。

The e-RCV with unmatched ergonomics supports a wide range of driver body types drive strong productivity gains and supports lower total cost of ownership for our customers. So you can understand why the reception has been so strong. We will be showing the unit at WasteExpo next week and displaying the cab for demonstration using VR technology at the Advanced Clean Transportation Expo, also next week. Initial vehicle deliveries will start in 2024, and we will be ramping up from there over the next several years.

具有無與倫比的人體工程學設計的 e-RCV 支持範圍廣泛的車手車身類型，可顯著提高生產力並為我們的客戶降低總擁有成本。所以你可以理解為什麼反響如此強烈。我們將在下週的 WasteExpo 上展示該裝置，並在下週的 Advanced Clean Transportation Expo 上展示使用 VR 技術進行演示的駕駛室。首批車輛交付將於 2024 年開始，我們將在未來幾年內逐步增加。

With that, I'm going to turn it over to Mike to discuss our results in more detail and our expectations for 2023.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Mike 來更詳細地討論我們的結果以及我們對 2023 年的期望。

Thanks, John. Please turn to Slide 7. Consolidated sales for the first quarter were $2.3 billion, an increase of $322 million or 17% over the prior year quarter. The increase was driven primarily by a $310 million or a 35% increase in sales at Access. The consolidated sales increase was driven by higher sales volume as supply chain conditions have improved over the prior year quarter and increased pricing in response to inflation. That said, revenue continues to be constrained in the Access and Vocational segments due to supply chain impacts, while backlog and demand remain very strong for both segments.

謝謝，約翰。請轉到幻燈片 7。第一季度的合併銷售額為 23 億美元，比去年同期增加 3.22 億美元或 17%。增長的主要原因是 Access 的銷售額增長了 3.1 億美元，增長了 35%。綜合銷售額的增長是由於供應鏈狀況較上年同期有所改善以及價格上漲以應對通貨膨脹而導致銷量增加。也就是說，由於供應鏈的影響，Access 和 Vocational 部門的收入繼續受到限制，而這兩個部門的積壓和需求仍然非常強勁。

Consolidated sales exceeded our expectations for the quarter due to modestly improved supply chain conditions versus prior expectations and the absence of some delivery timing impacts we previously anticipated in the quarter in our non-Defense segments.

由於供應鏈狀況與之前的預期相比略有改善，並且沒有我們之前預期的非國防部門在本季度的一些交付時間影響，綜合銷售額超出了我們對本季度的預期。

Moving to adjusted operating income. We delivered an increase of $116 million over the prior year quarter to $148 million or 6.5% of sales. This represents a 490 basis point improvement in adjusted operating margin versus the prior year. The improvement in adjusted operating income was largely driven by improved price cost dynamics and increased volume versus the prior year, particularly in the Access segment.

轉向調整後的營業收入。我們的銷售額比上一季度增加了 1.16 億美元，達到 1.48 億美元，佔銷售額的 6.5%。與上一年相比，調整後的營業利潤率提高了 490 個基點。調整後營業收入的改善主要是由於價格成本動態的改善以及與上一年相比銷量的增加，特別是在接入領域。

The Access segment delivered strong results for the third straight quarter with an 11.3% operating margin, representing a 1,070 basis point improvement over the prior year quarter. Higher-than-expected sales during the quarter led to stronger operating income compared with prior expectations. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.59 in the first quarter versus $0.27 in the prior year.

Access 部門連續第三個季度取得強勁業績，營業利潤率為 11.3%，比去年同期提高 1,070 個基點。與先前的預期相比，本季度高於預期的銷售額導致營業收入增加。第一季度調整後每股收益為 1.59 美元，而去年同期為 0.27 美元。

Now let's turn to our outlook for 2023. Please turn to Slide 8. We are off to a strong start and expect the higher sales and earnings we delivered in the first quarter of 2023 to benefit the full year. While supply chain conditions were modestly better than expectations in the first quarter, supplier on-time delivery metrics still remain well off of historical norms, so supply chain remains our most significant constraint for the year.

現在讓我們來看看我們對 2023 年的展望。請轉到幻燈片 8。我們開局良好，預計我們在 2023 年第一季度實現的更高銷售額和收益將使全年受益。雖然第一季度供應鏈狀況略好於預期，但供應商準時交貨指標仍遠低於歷史標準，因此供應鏈仍然是我們今年最重要的製約因素。

On a consolidated basis, we are estimating 2023 sales and adjusted operating income to be in the range of $8.65 billion and $570 million, respectively, up from our prior expectations of approximately $8.4 billion and $530 million, respectively. We are estimating adjusted earnings per share will be in the range of $6 per share, up from our prior estimate of $5.50 per share and prior year adjusted EPS of $3.46.

在綜合基礎上，我們估計 2023 年的銷售額和調整後營業收入分別在 86.5 億美元和 5.7 億美元之間，高於我們之前分別約為 84 億美元和 5.3 億美元的預期。我們估計調整後的每股收益將在每股 6 美元的範圍內，高於我們先前估計的每股 5.50 美元和上一年調整後的每股收益 3.46 美元。

At a segment level, we are estimating Access segment sales and operating margin to be in the range of $4.4 billion and 11.5%, respectively, both up from our prior estimates of sales and operating margin of $4.2 billion and 11%, respectively. The improvement is driven largely by stronger first quarter volume than prior expectations.

在部門層面，我們估計 Access 部門的銷售額和營業利潤率分別在 44 億美元和 11.5% 的範圍內，均高於我們之前分別估計的銷售額和營業利潤率 42 億美元和 11%。這一改善主要是由於第一季度銷量高於此前預期。

Turning to the Defense segment, we estimate sales to be in the range of $2.1 billion for the year, up modestly from our prior expectations. We expect adjusted operating margin to be approximately 3.25%, modestly lower versus our prior expectations of approximately 4% due to the impacts of higher steel and other component inflation, which drove higher unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in the first quarter as well as costs associated with the JLTV 2 protest.

談到國防領域，我們估計全年銷售額將在 21 億美元左右，略高於我們之前的預期。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 3.25%，略低於我們之前預期的約 4%，這是由於鋼鐵和其他零部件通脹上升的影響，這導致第一季度不利的累積追趕調整以及成本上升與 JLTV 2 抗議有關。

We continue to expect 2023 Vocational segment sales will be in the range of $2.2 billion with adjusted operating margins of approximately 8%, up from our prior expectations of approximately 7.5% as a result of improved price/cost dynamics versus previous expectations. As a reminder, fire truck orders in our backlog to be delivered in 2024 and 2025 were booked with significantly higher prices than units to be delivered in 2023. We expect Vocational segment margins to be meaningfully higher in 2024 and beyond as these units are delivered.

我們繼續預計 2023 年職業部門的銷售額將在 22 億美元之間，調整後的營業利潤率約為 8%，高於我們之前預期的約 7.5%，這是由於價格/成本動態比之前的預期有所改善。提醒一下，我們在 2024 年和 2025 年交付的積壓消防車訂單的預訂價格明顯高於 2023 年交付的單位。我們預計，隨著這些單位的交付，2024 年及以後的職業部門利潤率將顯著提高。

Our estimate for corporate expenses increased modestly to $180 million for the year as a result of higher than higher incentive compensation costs, and our estimate for tax rate and average share count remain unchanged from our prior expectations. We are also maintaining free cash flow and CapEx expectations at approximately $300 million and $350 million, respectively.

由於高於更高的激勵薪酬成本，我們對公司支出的估計溫和增加至 1.8 億美元，我們對稅率和平均股份數量的估計與我們之前的預期保持不變。我們還將自由現金流和資本支出預期分別維持在約 3 億美元和 3.5 億美元。

Looking to the second quarter, we expect consolidated sales and adjusted earnings per share to be approximately flat compared with our first quarter, reflecting similar supply chain dynamics to those we experienced during the first quarter. As a reminder, we do not expect typical seasonality trends to apply in this period of very strong demand and supply chain constraints.

展望第二季度，我們預計合併銷售額和調整後的每股收益與第一季度相比大致持平，反映出與第一季度類似的供應鏈動態。提醒一下，我們預計典型的季節性趨勢不會適用於這個需求和供應鏈約束非常強的時期。

I'll turn it back over to John now for some closing comments.

我現在將其轉回給 John，徵求一些結束意見。

We kicked off 2023 with strong performance and believe we are well-positioned to deliver on our plans for the rest of the year. We are investing in product innovations and capacity to support future growth in all 3 of our segments. We continue to take actions that address supply chain challenges and we are making progress, as you can see from our results today.

我們以強勁的表現拉開了 2023 年的序幕，並相信我們有能力在今年餘下的時間裡實現我們的計劃。我們正在投資於產品創新和能力，以支持我們所有 3 個細分市場的未來增長。我們繼續採取行動應對供應鏈挑戰，我們正在取得進展，正如您從我們今天的結果中看到的那樣。

And finally, I will reinforce a key message from our last call. We believe the fundamentals in our end markets remain very strong, and we expect to deliver robust earnings growth in 2023 and beyond.

最後，我將強調我們上次通話中的一個關鍵信息。我們相信我們終端市場的基本面仍然非常強勁，我們預計在 2023 年及以後實現強勁的盈利增長。

Okay, Pat, back to you.

好的，帕特，回到你身邊。

Thanks, John. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period of this call.

謝謝，約翰。 （接線員說明）接線員，請開始本次通話的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Super. I guess I'd like to go right to Access, probably not surprisingly. And Mike, I think you made a comment that Access revenues in the first quarter were quite a better than what you were expecting. But then you guys have also said you're not really seeing any improvement in supply chain. So I'm just trying to kind of square that. How did you get so much more out the door in the first quarter if supply chains aren't improving?

極好的。我想我想直接訪問 Access，這可能不足為奇。邁克，我想你曾評論說第一季度的 Access 收入比你預期的要好得多。但是你們也說過你們並沒有真正看到供應鏈有任何改善。所以我只是想解決這個問題。如果供應鏈沒有改善，你如何在第一季度獲得這麼多？

Yes. So I guess, first of all, just to clarify on supply chain. Supply chain is definitely showing improvement. It's modest. I think if you look specifically at the first quarter, typically, what we see even in a normal supply chain environment is with holiday shutdowns of suppliers as well as weather, we tend to see some interruptions. So we really view that, that the first quarter was going to be impacted from a volume perspective, really more timing more so than anything.

是的。所以我想，首先，只是為了澄清供應鏈。供應鏈肯定在改善。這是謙虛的。我認為，如果你具體看第一季度，通常情況下，即使在正常的供應鏈環境中，我們也會看到供應商假期停工以及天氣原因，我們往往會看到一些中斷。所以我們真的認為，第一季度將從數量的角度受到影響，實際上更多的是時機。

The good news is we didn't see that. So supply chain was quite resilient, better than we expected in the quarter, again, still well off of norms. So what we're seeing from a cadence perspective, Steve, is that we would expect that revenue -- that run rate in Q1 will really carry the next couple of quarters.

好消息是我們沒有看到。因此，供應鏈非常有彈性，好於我們在本季度的預期，同樣，仍遠低於正常水平。因此，史蒂夫，我們從節奏的角度來看，我們預計第一季度的收入——即運行率將在接下來的幾個季度真正發揮作用。

I would say the fourth quarter, right now, our expectation is that would be a bit lower, not due to supply chain or anything else. It's really just because of normal seasonality of having fewer production days, therefore, less equipment production. So that's how we're viewing it right now. But we are seeing -- we are definitely seeing improvement. It's not at a rapid pace, but it is improving.

我會說第四季度，現在，我們的預期是會低一點，而不是由於供應鍊或其他任何原因。這實際上只是因為生產天數較少的正常季節性，因此設備產量較少。這就是我們現在的看法。但我們看到了——我們肯定看到了改善。它的速度不是很快，但它正在改進。

In other words, Steve, it's not back to normal at this point, but it is a bit better, which is the primary driver of us getting increased shipments.

換句話說，史蒂夫，目前還沒有恢復正常，但好一點了，這是我們增加出貨量的主要驅動力。

Got it. Understood. And my disciplined follow-up on the supply chain, you said you weren't really forecasting any improvement in that going forward, but it seems like maybe that's conservative because, I mean, we are hearing improvements away from you as well. So I'm curious if supply chain did improve, would you get more out the door?

知道了。明白了。我對供應鏈進行了嚴格的跟進，你說你並沒有真正預測未來會有任何改善，但這似乎是保守的，因為我的意思是，我們也從你那裡聽到了改善。所以我很好奇如果供應鏈確實有所改善，你會得到更多嗎？

Yes. Easy answer to your question. Yes, if supply chain continues to improve, we'll get more out the door. We're being a bit cautious in terms of what to expect as we go through the year.

是的。輕鬆回答您的問題。是的，如果供應鏈繼續改善，我們會得到更多。我們對這一年的預期持謹慎態度。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jamie Cook 與 Crédit Suisse 的對話。

I guess my first question is on Defense. Can you talk about where the margins were in the first quarter versus expectations and how much the JLTV protest impacted margins? And then I guess, John, just medium-term path to get to more constructive margins in Defense as it's been under-earning the past couple of years. So I'll start there.

我想我的第一個問題是關於防禦的。你能談談第一季度的利潤率與預期相比在哪裡，以及 JLTV 抗議對利潤率的影響有多大？然後我想，約翰，這只是在國防領域獲得更具建設性利潤率的中期途徑，因為它在過去幾年一直收入不足。所以我將從那裡開始。

Sure. In the quarter, our -- we did expect, Jamie, to see lower margins, we talked about that on the last earnings call, because of an unfavorable mix. That order mix in the quarter that drives an unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustment. So it was a bit lower, though than we expected beyond that. Just what was seeing commodity inflation, again, and the forecast. So a bit incremental impact. We do believe it's going to be the lowest quarter of the year, not a lot of JLTV protest-related costs yet in the first quarter. That's really embedded in the guidance for the rest of the year.

當然。在本季度，傑米，我們確實預計利潤率會降低，我們在上次財報電話會議上談到了這一點，因為不利的組合。該季度的訂單組合導致不利的累積追趕調整。所以它比我們預期的要低一些。再次看到商品通脹和預測。所以有點增量影響。我們確實相信這將是今年最低的一個季度，第一季度與 JLTV 抗議相關的成本還不多。這確實包含在今年剩餘時間的指導中。

And I would say just in general, as we look to margins, we talked a lot about volumes are going to be lower in Defense. We're going to start ramping up NGDV next year, and that's going to meaningfully change the margin profile as we ramp up in that business.

我想說的是，總的來說，當我們關注利潤率時，我們談了很多關於國防業務量將會下降的問題。我們明年將開始增加 NGDV，隨著我們在該業務中的增加，這將顯著改變利潤率。

Yes, it's -- go ahead, Jamie.

是的，這是——繼續，傑米。

And then my follow-up -- sorry, go ahead, John.

然後是我的後續行動——抱歉，繼續，約翰。

I was just going to add to that. There's short term, and there's long term. Short term, the Defense margins have been squeezed by inflation because we have to take these cumulative catch-up adjustments. As inflation forecast normalize or maybe they'll even improve a bit, then you'll start -- just because of that, we'll start to see some margin improvement in the Defense business. The longer-term of it is winning these combat programs that are good margin business for us. Mike talked about the NGDV program going online, a little bit longer term, meaning over the next couple of years, 2, 3 years, that starts to improve the margins materially.

我只是想補充一點。有短期，也有長期。短期內，國防利潤率受到通貨膨脹的擠壓，因為我們必須進行這些累積的追趕調整。隨著通貨膨脹預測正常化，甚至可能會有所改善，那麼你就會開始——正因為如此，我們將開始看到國防業務的利潤率有所改善。從長遠來看，它是贏得這些對我們來說利潤豐厚的業務的戰鬥計劃。邁克談到了 NGDV 項目上線，從長遠來看，這意味著在接下來的幾年，2 年，3 年內，這將開始顯著提高利潤率。

Okay. And then my follow-up, just, Mike, on before the guide was, I think, $0.80 headwind in incentive comp, $0.30 product development, I think incentive is a little higher. Can you just remind me where those numbers are now in your new guide?

好的。然後我的後續行動，邁克，在指南之前，我認為，激勵補償的逆風為 0.80 美元，產品開發為 0.30 美元，我認為激勵要高一些。你能提醒我這些數字現在在你的新指南中的什麼位置嗎？

Yes. New guide incentive compensation is about $1.10 and new product development is similar at the $0.30.

是的。新指南激勵薪酬約為 1.10 美元，新產品開發的薪酬約為 0.30 美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about in Fire & Emergency, it looks like we had a nice margin improvement in the quarter. Can you comment on where the pricing point is going to be exiting this year compared to the first quarter? Is it starting to improve sequentially? And how much higher is the pricing point in 2024 than 2023 that you alluded to in your prepared remarks?

我想知道你是否可以談談消防和緊急情況，看起來我們在本季度的利潤率有了很好的提高。與第一季度相比，您能否評論一下今年的定價點？是否開始依次改善？ 2024 年的定價點比您在準備好的發言中提到的 2023 年高多少？

Sure. So the cadence is, and it really comes down to the timing of some of the increases that we've had. So we'll see by the end of the year, and it's really back-end loaded. We'll see sort of a low single-digit uplift in pricing in Vocational where we really see the change as we see double digits, i.e., over 10% next year. So that's why we have a confidence level that we're going to be back to a double-digit business there. So it's really -- you see some, later in the year, meaningful increase when we get into 2024.

當然。所以節奏是，它真的歸結為我們已經擁有的一些增長的時間。所以我們會在今年年底看到，它真的是後端加載的。我們將看到 Vocational 的價格出現低個位數的上漲，我們真正看到的變化是兩位數，即明年超過 10%。所以這就是為什麼我們有信心我們將在那裡恢復兩位數的業務。所以它真的 - 你會在今年晚些時候看到一些有意義的增長，當我們進入 2024 年時。

It will transform as we go into '24, Jerry.

當我們進入 24 世紀時，它會發生變化，傑里。

Very interesting. And then can I just ask on the supply chain? I know you track carefully the number of components that are on a watch list. What's that number look like today versus 3 to 6 months ago? And can you comment on just what are the most meaningful pinch points now that are rising to your level?

很有意思。然後我可以問一下供應鏈嗎？我知道您會仔細跟踪觀察名單上的組件數量。與 3 到 6 個月前相比，今天的數字是什麼樣的？你能評論一下現在上升到你的水平的最有意義的夾點是什麼嗎？

Yes. We track several metrics in supply chain, the highest level metric would be supplier on-time delivery. Supplier on-time deliveries improved by a few hundred basis points. Again, it's not up to above 90% like we'd like it to be, but it's made some decent improvement. We also track past dues. That's more of almost a daily, weekly basis. That can interrupt production if we have unexpected past dues.

是的。我們跟踪供應鏈中的幾個指標，最高級別的指標是供應商準時交貨。供應商的準時交貨率提高了數百個基點。同樣，它並沒有像我們希望的那樣達到 90% 以上，但它已經取得了一些不錯的改進。我們還跟踪過去的會費。這幾乎是每天、每週的基礎。如果我們有意外的逾期會費，這可能會中斷生產。

What I would say, I guess, the best way to describe it is that there's more green on our charts now than there were a quarter ago. But we still have troubled suppliers, and we still have risky categories of components that we have to manage on a day-to-day basis and week-to-week basis. But we're seeing moderate improvement in our ability.

我想我想說的是，最好的描述方式是我們的圖表上現在比一個季度前有更多的綠色。但我們仍然有麻煩的供應商，我們仍然有風險的組件類別，我們必須每天和每週管理這些組件。但我們看到我們的能力有了適度的提高。

One thing I will say is I think we're starting to see some benefit from the actions we've been taking. We've been doing a lot of reengineering to help our suppliers supply us better. We've been doing a lot of dual sourcing, qualifying additional sources. That stuff can't be done overnight. Takes a lot of engineering work to do it, but we're really starting to see a lot more supply come in as a result of those efforts. And I think that that's having a positive impact on our ability to produce more.

我要說的一件事是，我認為我們開始從我們一直在採取的行動中看到一些好處。我們一直在進行大量的重新設計，以幫助我們的供應商更好地為我們供貨。我們一直在做很多雙重來源，合格的額外來源。那東西不是一蹴而就的。需要大量的工程工作才能完成，但由於這些努力，我們真的開始看到更多的供應。我認為這對我們生產更多產品的能力產生了積極影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Tim Thein。

The question is -- or first one is just on the EPS guidance. So if the second quarter looks similar to the first, and normally, normal seasonality as the third quarter tends to be the biggest quarter. Just in kind of round figures, that would imply a pretty big sizable step down in the fourth to get to that roughly $6 number. Is there -- again, not to go through every single quarter in detail. But like, is there anything that you would call out?

問題是——或者第一個問題只是關於 EPS 指南。因此，如果第二季度看起來與第一季度相似，並且通常是正常的季節性，因為第三季度往往是最大的季度。就整數而言，這意味著在第四個階段有相當大的下降，以達到大約 6 美元的數字。有沒有 - 再次，不要詳細介紹每個季度。但是，有什麼你想說的嗎？

I know the seasonality has kind of got mixed up with all the supply chain stuff. But anything that we should be thinking about that because that would imply or that would really weigh on that, I think, in second and third quarter.

我知道季節性已經與所有供應鏈的東西混在一起了。但我認為，我們應該考慮的任何事情，因為這將暗示或真正影響到第二和第三季度。

Yes. You hit the nail on the head. I think with normal seasonality, I guess, really in these first 3 quarters doesn't apply. I think some of the seasonality you had historically is based on a demand factor. Demand exceeds by a wide margin what our supply is right now. So we're essentially delivering everything we're producing.

是的。你擊中了要害。我認為正常的季節性，我想，真的在前三個季度並不適用。我認為你歷史上的一些季節性是基於需求因素。需求大大超過我們目前的供應量。所以我們基本上是在交付我們生產的一切。

So I would expect that it -- really, the revenue cadence is going to be fairly flat if supply chain stays at the same level and then you see a bit of a step down in the fourth quarter just because there's fewer production days. So our guide is really highly dependent on the number of -- on the cadence of supply chain improvements as well as the number of production days in a quarter.

所以我預計它——真的，如果供應鏈保持在同一水平，收入節奏將相當平穩，然後你會看到第四季度有所下降，因為生產天數減少了。因此，我們的指南實際上高度依賴於供應鏈改進的節奏以及一個季度的生產天數。

Okay. Understood. And then back to the point on the telehandler capacity increase. If memory serves, you have a fairly long supply agreement with a major OEM that is due to wrap up maybe in the next year or 2. Can you -- presumably, you have -- I would expect some visibility and degree of confidence that, that gets renewed if you're increasing telehandler capacity. Or I don't know, is that -- am I -- is that a fair assumption? Or...

好的。明白了。然後回到關於伸縮臂叉裝機容量增加的觀點。如果沒記錯的話，你與一家主要 OEM 簽訂了一份相當長的供應協議，該協議可能會在明年或兩年內結束。你能——大概，你有——我希望有一定的知名度和信心，如果您要增加伸縮臂叉裝機的容量，它就會更新。或者我不知道，那是——我——這是一個合理的假設嗎？或者...

Well, we have a great -- the partnership you're referring to, that's a great partnership for us. It has been for a long time. But let me just talk about the telehandler capacity investment. We're seeing continued growth in the telehandler market. We're the leader in that market segment, and we see the opportunity as we're -- what's happening is there's a lot of new use cases being discovered for telehandlers, which is one of the reasons that we're seeing all that growth. And we see this as one of the opportunities for us to continue to drive growth in our business.

好吧，我們有一個偉大的——你所指的伙伴關係，這對我們來說是一個偉大的伙伴關係。已經有很長時間了。但讓我談談伸縮臂叉裝機的產能投資。我們看到伸縮臂叉裝機市場持續增長。我們是該細分市場的領導者，我們看到了機會——正在發生的事情是，伸縮臂叉裝機發現了許多新的用例，這是我們看到所有增長的原因之一.我們認為這是我們繼續推動業務增長的機會之一。

It's really the entire market that we see continuing to do really well over multiple years ahead of us that's driving that investment. It's not any one single contract that we have. But if we look at utilization data across the JLG business, it's healthy, it's really healthy and it's above last year. We see a lot of positive metrics even in construction metrics.

我們看到，在我們未來多年繼續表現出色的整個市場確實推動了這項投資。這不是我們擁有的任何一份合同。但如果我們看一下 JLG 業務的利用率數據，它是健康的，非常健康，而且高於去年。即使在建築指標中，我們也看到了很多積極的指標。

We follow the Portland Cement Association, FMI, IHS Global Insight, Moody's, et cetera, all these data points tell us that in the near term and long term, we're expecting growth in these segments. And I think you hear about it every day what's driving the growth. You hear about geopolitical concerns causing many manufacturers to reshore production. That's definitely already having an impact on construction and manufacturing.

我們關注波特蘭水泥協會、FMI、IHS Global Insight、穆迪等，所有這些數據點都告訴我們，在短期和長期內，我們預計這些領域會出現增長。而且我想你每天都會聽到推動增長的因素。您聽說地緣政治問題導致許多製造商將生產轉移到海外。這肯定已經對建築和製造業產生了影響。

You hear about mega projects a lot. Megaprojects have to do with new EV plants. It has to do with chip plants. It has to do with all these bills that have been passed for infrastructure. That's really just beginning to spawn these mega projects. All of that is, I think, bolstering why we see good demand for the foreseeable future and why these metrics are relatively healthy. And that causes us to continue to invest in capacity because we know we have to meet that demand.

你經常聽說大型項目。大型項目與新的電動汽車工廠有關。這與芯片廠有關。它與所有這些已通過的基礎設施法案有關。這真的才剛剛開始催生這些大型項目。我認為，所有這些都支持了為什麼我們在可預見的未來看到良好的需求以及為什麼這些指標相對健康。這促使我們繼續投資產能，因為我們知道我們必須滿足這種需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seth Weber 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

This is Larry Stavitski on for Seth this morning. Just wanted to ask about the outlook for -- just wanted to ask for the price -- the outlook for Access price cost for the remainder of the year. Does it become less of a tailwind as the year progresses?

我是今天早上為賽斯做的拉里·斯塔維茨基。只是想問一下今年剩餘時間訪問價格成本的前景——只是想問問價格。隨著時間的推移，它會變得不那麼順風嗎？

Sure. For Access, we're -- the price/cost scenario is -- we're essentially caught up right now. And obviously, we're going to continue to monitor inflation and that could cause additional pricing actions. But that's not really the story on Access. I would say right now, where we see additional opportunity from a margin perspective is as supply chain continues to normal, we're still not at up towards our capacity for production. So as more volume and throughput goes through our factories, we expect to see higher margins. So I think the cost price is not really the driver at this point.

當然。對於 Access，我們 - 價格/成本方案是 - 我們現在基本上已經趕上了。顯然，我們將繼續監測通貨膨脹，這可能會導致額外的定價行動。但這並不是 Access 的真實情況。我現在要說的是，從利潤率的角度來看，我們看到更多機會是因為供應鏈繼續正常，我們仍然沒有達到我們的生產能力。因此，隨著更多的產量和吞吐量通過我們的工廠，我們預計會看到更高的利潤率。所以我認為成本價在這一點上並不是真正的驅動因素。

Okay. Understood. And just as a follow-up, are you seeing any order cancellations or pushouts due to macro concerns or rate concerns or anything of that nature?

好的。明白了。作為後續行動，您是否看到由於宏觀問題或利率問題或任何類似性質的任何訂單取消或推出？

Demand for the product is really strong. You look at our order rate for Access -- I think you're referring to Access equipment, so that's what I'm talking about. You look at $1.2 billion in orders in the first quarter. That's a really healthy rate of orders. And our 2024 order book is not even fully open and all the orders we're taking now are for 2024. So it's not a free flow of orders, and you still see $1.2 billion of orders and yet another record backlog at the JLG business. I think that gives you an indication that the backlog is healthy. And the order rates we see as healthy and continuing to be healthy going forward.

對該產品的需求非常強勁。你看看我們的 Access 訂單率——我想你指的是 Access 設備，所以這就是我所說的。第一季度的訂單金額為 12 億美元。這是一個非常健康的訂單率。我們的 2024 年訂單甚至還沒有完全開放，我們現在接受的所有訂單都是 2024 年的。所以訂單不是自由流動的，你仍然會看到 12 億美元的訂單和 JLG 業務的另一個創紀錄的積壓。我認為這表明積壓情況良好。我們認為訂單率是健康的，並且在未來將繼續保持健康。

Our next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

Congrats on the great results. Going back to that backlog comment. Since you still haven't opened 2024 order book fully, do you expect backlog to sort of keep climbing from here on? Or do you expect to sort of like bring it down a little bit by the end of this year as production ramps up?

恭喜取得好成績。回到那個積壓評論。由於您還沒有完全打開 2024 年的訂單簿，您是否預計積壓從這裡開始會繼續攀升？或者您是否希望隨著產量的增加在今年年底之前將其降低一點？

Well, we think that a backlog that we have today that goes out essentially a year for all intents and purposes, that's a long backlog, right? We would prefer to have a backlog that is certainly less than a year or much more of a normalized backlog if you look back in history, because that gives our customers much better visibility in the near term in terms of when they can get equipment. So that's -- Tami, that's why we're increasing our production capacity. I talked about telehandlers, but the telehandler, the 500,000 square feet to telehandlers, that also opens up more capacity in our McConnellsburg facility to produce more booms and so forth.

好吧，我們認為我們今天的積壓基本上是一年的所有意圖和目的，這是一個長期的積壓，對吧？如果您回顧歷史，我們更希望積壓肯定少於一年或更多的標準化積壓，因為這使我們的客戶在短期內可以更好地了解他們何時可以獲得設備。這就是 - 塔米，這就是我們提高生產能力的原因。我談到了伸縮臂叉裝機，但是伸縮臂叉裝機，500,000 平方英尺的伸縮臂叉裝機，這也為我們的 McConnellsburg 工廠開闢了更多產能，以生產更多動臂等。

So as we continue to increase capacity that will drive growth. We're confident in the long-term outlook of the market. And ultimately, we think that we can take the backlog where customers are seeing a 6-month outlook or maybe a little more than that. But certainly, we don't want it to be a year. So I think that all bodes well for. We're going to invest in capacity. We continue to see healthy market conditions, and that will drive growth, and that will be good for our customers.

因此，隨著我們繼續增加將推動增長的能力。我們對市場的長期前景充滿信心。最終，我們認為我們可以處理客戶看到 6 個月或更長的前景的積壓訂單。但當然，我們不希望它是一年。所以我認為這一切都是好兆頭。我們將投資產能。我們繼續看到健康的市場狀況，這將推動增長，這對我們的客戶有利。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then for modeling purposes, for Access equipment, should we think about EBIT margin sort of sequentially getting better in 2Q and then again in 3Q and then sort of steps back in 4Q, given you said lower production days? So what I'm trying to really understand is, is sort of 1Q the lowest margin quarter of the year as we sit here today or is 4Q going to be the lowest margin quarter?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後出於建模目的，對於 Access 設備，我們是否應該考慮 EBIT 利潤率在第 2 季度連續好轉，然後在第 3 季度再次好轉，然後在第 4 季度回落，考慮到您說的生產天數較低？所以我想真正了解的是，我們今天坐在這裡，第一季度是今年利潤率最低的季度，還是第四季度將成為利潤率最低的季度？

I would say that the next -- the 3 quarters based on all my other commentary are going to be pretty similar with the fourth quarter being somewhat lower just because the volume is lower, and you're not getting that quite the same absorption benefit that you would get. And again, a lot of -- we're very early in the year, Tami. So I think we'll continue to watch supply chain and we stand ready. As it improves faster, we certainly are able to produce more.

我會說接下來 - 基於我所有其他評論的 3 個季度將與第四季度非常相似，只是因為數量較低，而且你沒有得到完全相同的吸收收益你會得到。再一次，很多——我們今年很早，Tami。所以我認為我們會繼續關注供應鏈，我們會做好準備。隨著它改進得更快，我們當然能夠生產更多。

And as you see supply chain improve, Tami, I think you'll see our factories get more efficient, and therefore, that will provide margin improvement as we go through the year. It's -- a lot of it's dependent on supply chain and how efficient we can be.

當你看到供應鏈改善時，塔米，我想你會看到我們的工廠變得更有效率，因此，這將在我們度過這一年時提高利潤率。這在很大程度上取決於供應鏈以及我們的效率。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Fisher。

You actually just answered the question I had about whether there's any additional efficiency benefits that would be additive to the margins on Access as supply chain improves and you get the leverage. But I guess now the follow-up to that would be how much you're thinking or to what extent you might be thinking we could hit those 2025 margin target sooner than expected if the demand outlook is pretty good, and we're already probably exiting this year fairly close to those 2025 target margin levels?

你實際上剛剛回答了我的問題，即隨著供應鏈的改善和你獲得槓桿作用，是否有任何額外的效率優勢會增加 Access 的利潤率。但我想現在的後續行動將是你在想多少，或者你可能在多大程度上認為，如果需求前景非常好，我們可以比預期更快地實現 2025 年的利潤率目標，而且我們可能已經今年退出相當接近 2025 年的目標利潤率水平？

Yes. Yes, Steve, thanks for the question. I'm glad you asked about 2025 targets. So last year when we did our Investor Day, we gave a range, right? And any time you give a range and you're looking out a few years, there's -- you know that during that period, there's going to be positive events and there's going to be negative events that affect your ability to meet that target. I'll start with saying that, of course, we expected to have JLTV, and we realize that because of a very, very low price, we were not able to retain the JLTV target. So that was kind of a negative hit to our to the 2025 targets.

是的。是的，史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。很高興您詢問了 2025 年的目標。所以去年我們舉辦投資者日時，我們給出了一個範圍，對嗎？任何時候你給出一個範圍並且你正在展望幾年，你知道在那段時間裡，會有積極的事件，也會有影響你實現該目標的能力的消極事件。我首先要說的是，當然，我們希望擁有 JLTV，我們意識到由於價格非常非常低，我們無法保留 JLTV 目標。因此，這對我們 2025 年的目標造成了負面影響。

However, we've got a lot of positive things happening, too. We're a growing organization. We're growing across the board. We expect a higher mix of battery electric for the postal contract. That's very positive. We did an acquisition of Hinowa, and we'll still do other M&A as we go through the period. There's other tailwinds in our businesses that are very, very healthy. So we are committed to those 2025 targets. That's what I'll tell you.

但是，我們也發生了很多積極的事情。我們是一個成長中的組織。我們正在全面發展。我們預計郵政合同的電池電力組合會更高。這是非常積極的。我們收購了 Hinowa，在此期間我們仍將進行其他併購。我們的業務中還有其他非常非常健康的順風。因此，我們致力於實現 2025 年的目標。這就是我要告訴你的。

That's really helpful. And then just quickly on steel prices. Obviously, they're back to rising. I'm curious what that means for you and how you're planning for that now, if at all?

這真的很有幫助。然後很快就對鋼材價格。顯然，他們又回到了上升趨勢。我很好奇這對您意味著什麼以及您現在如何計劃（如果有的話）？

We're continuing to watch all of our input costs, whether fuel or otherwise. So that continues. We certainly monitor that, and then we'll factor that into the extent that it's driving commodity inflation into pricing and so on. But at this point, we're obviously just continuing to monitor all inputs.

我們將繼續關注我們所有的投入成本，無論是燃料成本還是其他成本。這樣繼續下去。我們當然會對此進行監控，然後我們會將其納入將商品通脹推向定價等的程度。但在這一點上，我們顯然只是在繼續監控所有輸入。

We have no further questions at this time. Mr. Davidson, I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

目前我們沒有其他問題。戴維森先生，我想把發言權交還給您，請您發表結束評論。

Thanks, Christine, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We're committed to driving long-term profitable growth as we innovate, serve and advance. We look forward to speaking with you perhaps at the ACT Expo next week or WasteExpo or at a conference in May or June or during the summer. Take care, and have a good day.

謝謝，克里斯汀，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們致力於在創新、服務和進步的過程中推動長期盈利增長。我們期待著在下週的 ACT 博覽會或 WasteExpo 或在 5 月或 6 月或夏季的會議上與您交談。保重，祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。