Oshkosh Corp (OSK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation first quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候並歡迎參加奧什科甚公司 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Patrick Davidson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹主持人、投資者關係高級副總裁帕特里克·戴維森。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our first quarter 2025 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2025 年第一季的業績。您可在我們的網站 oshkoshcorp.com 上查閱該新聞稿的副本。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，也可在我們的網站上查閱。音訊重播和幻燈片演示將在我們的網站上提供約 12 個月。

Please refer now to slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

現在請參閱該簡報的第 2 張投影片。我們接下來的評論（包括對您的問題的回答）包含我們認為符合《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述具有風險，可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference, if at all.

這些風險包括我們今天早上向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所描述的事項。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務，這些聲明可能要等到我們下次季度收益會議才會更新。

Our presenters today are John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Field, Executive Vice and Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I'd like to highlight our upcoming Investor Day. We are planning for a morning start on Thursday, June 5, at the New York Stock Exchange in Lower Manhattan. We look forward to sharing our plans for the future, and you will get to hear from several of our key leaders in addition to both John and Matt. Please reach out to Victoria Connelly or myself if you are interested in attending in person.

今天的演講者是總裁兼執行長 John Pfeifer；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Matt Field。在我們開始之前，我想強調一下我們即將到來的投資者日。我們計劃於 6 月 5 日星期四早上在曼哈頓下城的紐約證券交易所開始營業。我們期待分享我們未來的計劃，除了約翰和馬特之外，您還將聽到我們幾位主要領導人的演講。如果您有興趣親自參加，請聯絡 Victoria Connelly 或我本人。

Now please turn to slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, John.

現在請翻到投影片 3，我將把它交給你，約翰。

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. We are off to a good start in 2025 with strong performance in our vocational segment, good margins and resiliency in our access segment and solid progress as we ramp up NGDV production in the Defense segment. For the quarter, we delivered revenue of $2.3 billion and adjusted operating income margin of 8.3%. Our adjusted EPS of $1.92 was in line with our expectations of approximately $2 for the quarter. We are confident with the underlying trajectory our operational performance across all our segments, which we believe would keep us on track to deliver our full year adjusted EPS in the range of $11 excluding headwinds caused by the recent tariff announcement.

謝謝你，帕特，大家早安。2025 年我們有一個良好的開端，在職業領域表現強勁，在准入領域利潤率高且具有彈性，在國防領域隨著 NGDV 產量的提升也取得了穩步進展。本季度，我們的營收為 23 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率為 8.3%。我們的調整後每股收益為 1.92 美元，符合我們對本季約 2 美元的預期。我們對所有部門的營運業績基本軌跡充滿信心，我們相信這將使我們有望實現全年調整後每股收益在 11 美元左右（不包括最近宣布的關稅帶來的不利因素）。

Before Matt provides more details on potential tariff impacts on our results, I want to make some key tariff points upfront. First, as we've said previously, nearly all of what we sell in the United States is built in the United States, and we have a broad US production footprint which we believe puts us in a strong competitive position in our industry. Second, we have a global supply chain, and we are proactively working to mitigate potential impacts from tariffs. Third, at this time, we are not experiencing significant secondary impacts of tariffs like supply chain disruptions or reductions in demand.

在馬特提供有關關稅對我們業績的潛在影響的更多細節之前，我想先提出一些關鍵的關稅要點。首先，正如我們之前所說，我們在美國銷售的幾乎所有產品都是在美國製造的，而且我們在美國擁有廣泛的生產足跡，我們相信這使我們在行業中處於強大的競爭地位。第二，我們擁有全球供應鏈，我們正在積極努力減輕關稅的潛在影響。第三，目前，我們還沒有感受到關稅帶來的重大次生影響，例如供應鏈中斷或需求減少。

And fourth, we continue to execute on our strategies despite near-term volatility as we believe the trends that support our industry-leading businesses align with our long-term growth initiatives. Please turn to slide 4, and we'll get started on our segment updates. Access performance was in line with our expectations. We delivered a resilient adjusted operating margin of 11.3% despite lower sales. We remain confident in the long-term opportunities arising from mega projects and infrastructure spending.

第四，儘管近期存在波動，我們仍將繼續執行我們的策略，因為我們相信支持我們行業領先業務的趨勢與我們的長期成長計劃相一致。請翻到投影片 4，我們將開始我們的片段更新。存取效能符合我們的預期。儘管銷售額下降，我們仍實現了 11.3% 的調整後營業利潤率。我們對於大型專案和基礎設施支出帶來的長期機會仍然充滿信心。

Our backlog remains strong, ending the quarter at $1.8 billion, equal to the end of last year as we booked orders in the quarter of $930 million and achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.0. We did not experience any notable order cancellations from customers in the quarter. We continue to stay close to our customers to respond quickly to any changes in the macroeconomic environment. A good example of our team's ability to respond quickly to tariffs was the localization of booms at our Hinowa facility in Italy in response to duties that the European Union applied to Chinese imports. I'm proud to report that it took our team less than a year to move production from China to Italy and begin shipping our first units to customers, thus mitigating the tariff impact.

我們的積壓訂單依然強勁，本季末的訂單額為 18 億美元，與去年年底持平，因為我們在本季的訂單金額為 9.3 億美元，訂單出貨比達到 1.0。本季我們沒有遇到任何明顯的客戶訂單取消情況。我們繼續與客戶保持密切聯繫，以便對宏觀經濟環境的任何變化做出快速反應。我們團隊快速應對關稅能力的一個很好的例子是，為了應對歐盟對中國進口產品徵收的關稅，我們在義大利 Hinowa 工廠對吊桿進行了本地化。我很自豪地報告，我們的團隊只花了不到一年的時間就將生產從中國轉移到義大利，並開始向客戶運送第一批產品，從而減輕了關稅的影響。

On the product front, the Access team previewed our new micro-sized ES1930M Scissor Lift at the ARA Rental Show in February. This category of scissor lifts is creating excitement in the market, growing at a solid clip and being used in places like data centers. Customers are particularly eager for our entry into this emerging category as they value JLG's quality, service and support.

在產品方面，Access 團隊在二月的 ARA 租賃展上預覽了我們的新型微型 ES1930M 剪式升降機。這類剪式升降機在市場上引起了轟動，成長速度非常快，並被廣泛應用於資料中心等場所。客戶特別渴望我們進入這個新興類別，因為他們重視 JLG 的品質、服務和支援。

Finally, JLG hosted international customers at the Bauma event in Munich earlier this month. Attendees were enthusiastic about our product innovations, including our new line of multi-fuel booms and ClearSky Smart Fleet with its many technological advantages. This was another outstanding opportunity for us to showcase our products and technology that lead the industry toward a connected and productive job site of the future.

最後，JLG 於本月初在慕尼黑 Bauma 展會上接待了國際客戶。與會者對我們的產品創新充滿熱情，包括我們的新系列多燃料吊桿和具有眾多技術優勢的 ClearSky Smart Fleet。這是我們展示引領產業走向未來互聯高效工作場所的產品和技術的另一個絕佳機會。

Please turn to slide 5, and I'll review our Vocational segment. We achieved strong year-over-year revenue growth of 12% in the quarter and a robust adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15%. The higher volume was led by higher refuse and recycling vehicle sales and strong price realization across the segment. The backlog remains robust at $6.3 billion, providing excellent visibility to future revenue.

請翻到投影片 5，我將回顧我們的職業部分。本季度，我們的營收年增 12%，調整後營業利潤率達到近 15%。銷售成長是由於垃圾和回收車輛銷售增加以及整個領域價格上漲所致。積壓訂單仍保持強勁，達到 63 億美元，為未來收入提供了極佳的可視性。

We continue investing in people and resources toward our goal of increasing production levels across the segment to support strong demand, which we expect to lead to meaningful revenue and operating income growth. A great example of a growth opportunity that I'd like to share is with the City of Calgary in Alberta, Canada.

我們將繼續投資於人力和資源，以實現提高整個部門的生產水準以支持強勁需求的目標，我們預計這將帶來可觀的收入和營業收入成長。我想分享的一個絕佳的成長機會是加拿大阿爾伯塔省的卡加利市。

Some of you may recall that Calgary was an early adopter of our Pierce Volterra electric fire truck. Previous to that, they purchased limited apparatus from Pierce, but their experience with our Volterra custom pumper EV helped us, along with our dealer commercial truck equipment in Canada, secure a multiyear order for 22 conventional Pierce fire trucks for the city of Calgary.

你們中的一些人可能還記得，卡加利是我們 Pierce Volterra 電動消防車的早期採用者。在此之前，他們從 Pierce 購買的設備有限，但他們對我們 Volterra 定制泵 EV 的經驗幫助我們以及我們在加拿大的經銷商商用卡車設備為卡加利市贏得了 22 輛傳統 Pierce 消防車的多年訂單。

Innovations are key to our success, and we continue to develop advanced technology such as our CAMS, that's collision avoidance mitigation system and ClearSky Intelligence fully integrated telematics solutions showcased at FDIC earlier this month.

創新是我們成功的關鍵，我們將繼續開發先進技術，例如本月初在 FDIC 展示的 CAMS（即防撞緩解系統）和 ClearSky Intelligence 完全整合的遠端資訊處理解決方案。

These are great examples of our neighborhood of the future technological advances. Additionally, we announced a new lineup of Oshkosh's IMT cranes at Work Truck Week in March. The updated family delivers increased reach, lifting capacity and reliability across 16 models. We've incorporated customer feedback into the design and focused on commonality, ease of maintenance and exceptional performance.

這些都是我們社區未來科技進步的偉大典範。此外，我們在三月的工作卡車週上發布了奧什科甚 IMT 起重機的全新陣容。升級後的系列產品涵蓋 16 種型號，其伸展範圍、起重能力和可靠性均有所提升。我們在設計中融入了客戶回饋，並專注於通用性、易於維護和卓越的性能。

Finally, Oshkosh AeroTech continues to perform very well and lead with innovative technologies like IOPS fleet management software and investments in autonomous baggage handling vehicles. Several of you on this call today experienced these products at our CES Airport of the Future display earlier this year. Customer demand for our jet bridges, ground support equipment and advanced technologies continues to grow as customers seek to improve efficiency of airport operations.

最後，Oshkosh AeroTech 繼續表現出色，並憑藉 IOPS 車隊管理軟體等創新技術和自動行李處理車輛投資處於領先地位。今天參加電話會議的幾位嘉賓在今年稍早的 CES 未來機場展示會上體驗了這些產品。隨著客戶尋求提高機場營運效率，客戶對我們的登機橋、地面支援設備和先進技術的需求持續成長。

Let's turn to slide 6 for a discussion of the Defense segment. We're confident in the defense outlook for 2025. Although first quarter results reflected lower volume and higher cumulative catch-up adjustments, we are pleased with our progress on the production ramp-up for the NGDV program and deliveries to the United States Postal Service.

讓我們翻到投影片 6，討論一下國防部部分。我們對2025年的國防前景充滿信心。儘管第一季的業績反映出產量較低和累積追趕調整較高，但我們對 NGDV 計劃的生產提升和向美國郵政服務的交付進展感到滿意。

We are on target to increase NGDV volume to full rate production by year-end. This should provide strong revenue growth in the back half of 2025 and into 2026. We continue to execute programs for the United States Department of Defense. During the quarter, we took orders for the FMTV low velocity air drop vehicles as well as PL SA2 autonomy-ready vehicles for the US Army.

我們的目標是到年底將 NGDV 產量提高到滿載生產。這應該會在 2025 年下半年和 2026 年帶來強勁的收入成長。我們繼續為美國國防部執行專案。在本季度，我們接受了美國陸軍的 FMTV 低速空投車輛以及 PL SA2 自主就緒車輛的訂單。

We are also wrapping up negotiations for a sole-source FMTV A2 contract extension later this year. We expect the extension to include an economic price adjustment mechanism similar to our agreement for the FHTV program we announced in 2024.

我們還將在今年稍後完成有關單一來源 FMTV A2 合約延期的談判。我們預計此次延期將包括一項經濟價格調整機制，類似於我們在 2024 年宣布的 FHTV 計劃協議。

Just last week, we announced a 150-unit JLTV contract with the Netherlands Ministry of Defense for the Dutch Marine Corps. The contract calls for design modifications to the JLTV that fulfill requirements for the Dutch Expeditionary Patrol vehicles. This order is an excellent example of the attractive international opportunities for our tactical wheeled vehicles, and we look forward to sharing more of these successes in the future.

就在上週，我們宣布與荷蘭國防部簽訂了一份為荷蘭海軍陸戰隊提供 150 輛 JLTV 的合約。合約要求對 JLTV 進行設計修改，以滿足荷蘭遠徵巡邏車的要求。這份訂單是我們戰術輪式車輛在國際上享有盛譽的絕佳例證，我們期待在未來分享更多這樣的成功。

Before I turn it over to Matt, I want to note that our defense business is going through a leadership transition. I am overseeing the segment for the time being, and we expect to announce a new segment leader later this year.

在將權力移交給馬特之前，我想指出，我們的國防業務正在經歷領導層的變動。我目前負責該部門，我們預計將在今年稍後宣布新的部門負責人。

Thanks, John. Please turn to slide 7. Consolidated sales for the first quarter were $2.3 billion, a decrease of $231 million or 9% from the same quarter last year, primarily reflecting the softer market conditions for access equipment in North America, as we expected and highlighted on our previous call, primarily offset by improved pricing in the Vocational segment.

謝謝，約翰。請翻到幻燈片 7。第一季綜合銷售額為 23 億美元，比去年同期減少 2.31 億美元，降幅為 9%，這主要反映了北美高空作業設備市場狀況疲軟，正如我們在上次電話會議上所預期和強調的那樣，但這主要被職業設備部門價格的提高所抵消。

Adjusted operating income was $192 million or 8.3% of sales. Adjusted operating income was down from the prior year as a result of lower sales volume, higher operating expenses and higher new product development spending, partially offset by improved price, cost dynamics.

調整後的營業收入為 1.92 億美元，佔銷售額的 8.3%。調整後的營業收入較上年有所下降，原因是銷售量下降、營業費用增加以及新產品開發支出增加，但價格和成本動態改善部分抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted earnings per share was $1.92 in the first quarter, in line with our expectations of approximately $2 per share. Free cash flow for the quarter was also in line with our expectations and reflected a net use of cash of $435 million due to seasonal working capital needs.

第一季調整後每股收益為 1.92 美元，符合我們預期的每股約 2 美元。本季的自由現金流也符合我們的預期，並反映出由於季節性營運資金需求而淨使用現金 4.35 億美元。

During the quarter, we entered into a new $500 million 24-month term loan to provide additional liquidity. We used the proceeds to reduce the balance on our revolving credit facility. The term loan, which can be repaid early, carries a slightly lower interest rate than our revolver.

本季度，我們簽訂了一項新的 5 億美元 24 個月定期貸款，以提供額外的流動性。我們利用所得款項來減少循環信貸額度的餘額。定期貸款可以提前償還，其利率比我們的循環貸款略低。

We also continue to repurchase shares steadily throughout the quarter, repurchasing nearly 290,000 shares of our stock for $29 million. Share repurchases during the previous 12 months benefited adjusted EPS by $0.03 compared to the first quarter of 2024.

我們還在整個季度繼續穩步回購股票，以 2,900 萬美元回購了近 290,000 股股票。與 2024 年第一季相比，過去 12 個月的股票回購使調整後每股盈餘增加 0.03 美元。

Please turn to slide 8. At the beginning of our call, John mentioned our confidence in the underlying trajectory of our operational performance, which we believe would keep us on track to deliver our full year adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $11, if not for the impact of announced tariffs.

請翻到第 8 張投影片。在電話會議開始時，約翰提到了我們對營運業績基本軌蹟的信心，我們相信，如果不是因為宣布的關稅的影響，這將使我們有望實現全年調整後每股收益在 11 美元左右的預期。

Based on current announcements and what we are seeing as of today, we estimate that the direct impact of tariffs, net of targeted mitigation actions could be about $1 per share. We are monitoring conditions closely and proactively working to mitigate the impact of tariffs through cost actions across the company.

根據目前的公告和我們今天所看到的情況，我們估計，扣除有針對性的緩解措施後，關稅的直接影響可能約為每股 1 美元。我們正在密切監測情況，並積極努力透過全公司的成本行動來減輕關稅的影響。

We believe these efforts may offset the impact of tariffs by up to $0.50 per share. We do not anticipate these tariffs will have a material impact on our second quarter results as we work through existing inventories. Our estimate of the direct impact of tariffs is based off currently announced rates and excludes potential future indirect impacts, which are difficult to predict at this time. We remain committed to execute on our strategies despite uncertainty introduced by tariffs, and we believe the trends that support our industry-leading businesses will provide long-term growth opportunities.

我們相信這些努力可能會抵消關稅的影響，最高可達每股 0.50 美元。由於我們正在處理現有庫存，我們預計這些關稅不會對我們第二季的業績產生重大影響。我們對關稅直接影響的估計是基於目前公佈的稅率，不包括目前難以預測的未來潛在間接影響。儘管關稅帶來不確定性，我們仍致力於執行我們的策略，我們相信支持我們行業領先業務的趨勢將提供長期成長機會。

With that, I'll turn it back over to John for some closing comments.

說完這些，我將把話題交還給約翰，請他發表一些結束語。

We delivered our first quarter in line with expectations, and I'm confident that we have the right team to execute our priorities regardless of the current macroeconomic environment. We believe our industry-leading brands, strong product portfolio and strategic initiatives will serve us well and position us for long-term growth. I'll now turn it back over to Pat for the Q&A.

我們第一季的業績符合預期，我相信，無論當前的宏觀經濟環境如何，我們都有合適的團隊來執行我們的優先事項。我們相信，我們領先業界的品牌、強大的產品組合和策略性舉措將為我們提供良好的服務，並使我們為長期成長做好準備。現在我將把問題交還給帕特進行問答。

Thanks, John. (Event Instructions) Operator, please begin the Q&A session.

謝謝，約翰。（活動指示）接線員，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

史蒂夫‧福克曼，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good morning guys. I'm going to lead off with a question on tariffs, and I bet you didn't expect that. So big picture, I'm curious, John, how you're thinking about this. Last time we had tariffs, you were able to basically offset all that with price. But let's be clear, I mean, this time, it seems like the demand environment is not quite as robust. So do you think over time that we should still expect that you'll be able to recapture whatever tariffs sort of hand you here?

大家早安。我將首先提出一個有關關稅的問題，我敢打賭你沒想到這一點。所以從總體上看，我很好奇，約翰，你是如何看待這個問題的。上次我們徵收關稅時，基本上可以用價格來抵銷所有損失。但我們要明確一點，我的意思是，這一次，需求環境似乎不那麼強勁。那麼您是否認為，隨著時間的推移，我們仍然應該期望您能夠重新獲得關稅帶來的任何好處？

So I'll tell you the way -- thanks for the question, Steve. I'll tell you our MO. I mean our MO right now is we want to minimize impact that we pass on to our customers. Now you know we have pricing power in all of our end markets because we lead in all the end markets that we serve. But our MO is to try to minimize impact to customers.

所以我會告訴你方法——謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。我會告訴你我們的作法。我的意思是，我們現在的做法是盡量減少對客戶的影響。現在您知道我們在所有終端市場都擁有定價權，因為我們在所服務的所有終端市場中都處於領先地位。但我們的宗旨是盡量減少對客戶的影響。

And so we want to use that as our last lever. We've got a lot of initiatives right now. These tariffs are targeted. There's -- we kind of have the top three areas that we have to mitigate tariffs in, in terms of countries in the world. And if we mitigate those top three, we mitigate the vast majority of problem that we see ahead of us. That's with the tariffs as they are today.

因此，我們希望將其作為我們最後的槓桿。我們現在有很多舉措。這些關稅是有針對性的。就世界各國而言，我們需要降低關稅的領域主要有三。如果我們緩解這三大問題，我們就能緩解我們面臨的絕大多數問題。這就是今天的關稅。

And so we are laser-focused on doing that. I talked on my prepared remarks about what we were able to do in Europe in a very short period of time to deal with European tariffs on China, and we'll continue to do that same type of work here. But we have pricing power, but the MO is we don't want to pass a whole lot on to customers if we can avoid it, because of what you said, there's elasticity of demand in any market. And so we want to be prudent about how we go about this.

因此，我們全心全意地致力於此。我在準備好的演講中談到了我們在歐洲在很短的時間內為應對歐洲對中國徵收關稅所採取的措施，我們將繼續在這裡進行同樣的工作。但是我們有定價權，但我們的做法是，如果可以避免的話，我們不想把很多成本轉嫁給客戶，因為正如你所說，任何市場都有需求彈性。因此，我們要謹慎處理此事。

Got it. And my extremely disciplined follow-up is last time it took quite a while to pass some of this through given long backlogs and various types of price. So just any comments there?

知道了。我非常嚴謹的後續行動是，上次由於積壓量大和價格類型多樣，花了很長時間才通過其中一些工作。那麼還有什麼評論嗎？

Yeah. So what we learned last time is what everyone learned is, a, we do have pricing power, but we --when we had general inflation, and this was not just US inflation, it was general inflation that was global, it did take us a little bit of time in some of our end markets to realize the price because of big backlogs and contractual obligations and so forth.

是的。因此，我們上次學到的也是每個人都學到的，那就是，我們確實有定價權，但是當我們出現普遍通貨膨脹時，這不僅僅是美國通貨膨脹，而是全球普遍通貨膨脹，由於大量積壓訂單和合約義務等，我們確實需要一點時間才能在一些終端市場實現價格。

So we've been able to change the way we do business to give ourselves more flexibility now versus what we had a few years ago during the rampant inflation years. So we definitely feel good about that. But I'll come back to say our MO is to try to minimize disruption for our customers.

因此，與幾年前通貨膨脹猖獗的年代相比，我們現在能夠改變經營方式，從而擁有更大的靈活性。所以我們對此感到非常高興。但我要說的是，我們的宗旨是盡量減少對客戶的干擾。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Mircea Dobre, Baird.

米爾恰·多布雷，貝爾德。

All right. Thanks and good morning. Just on this tariff topic, I'm curious if you can maybe give us a little more clarity in terms of where the cost headwinds are here. As you said, you manufacture things in the US. So presumably, I would imagine this has to do with components. Maybe you can highlight. Yeah, maybe you can highlight some of the key countries that we need to watch for here just in case policy changes so that we get an understanding as to how your cost structure might evolve.

好的。謝謝，早安。就這個關稅主題而言，我很好奇您是否可以更清楚地說明這裡的成本阻力在哪裡。正如你所說，你們在美國製造產品。因此，我推測這與組件有關。也許你可以強調一下。是的，也許您可以重點介紹一些我們需要關注的關鍵國家，以防政策發生變化，這樣我們就能了解您的成本結構如何演變。

Morning Mig, it's Matt. So if you think about our exposures, fundamentally, you think about the three segments, Access is the most global of the segments. And so there, you've got a broader supply chain. Obviously, with the rate at which tariffs were put in, China has the outsized impact just given the overall tariff amount there. And then we do source some from Europe in that global supply chain.

早安，米格，我是馬特。因此，如果您考慮我們的曝光度，從根本上講，您會考慮三個部分，其中 Access 是所有部分中最全球化的。這樣，你就擁有了更廣大的供應鏈。顯然，按照徵收關稅的速度，中國受到的影響是巨大的，因為其關稅總額龐大。然後我們確實從全球供應鏈中的歐洲採購一些產品。

The other two segments have a much more US focused supply chain. And so really, in terms of mitigation, it's about negotiation, sourcing and all those normal toolkit things you'd use for tariffs, which are slightly different than what you'd use for general inflation.

另外兩個部門的供應鏈則更加以美國為中心。因此，就緩解而言，實際上涉及談判、採購以及用於關稅的所有常規工具包，這些工具包與用於一般通貨膨脹的工具包略有不同。

All right. Understood. Then my follow-up is on the Defense segment. First, I guess, thank you for starting to break out the NGDV so that we see the revenue there. Can you comment at all in terms of that -- how that revenue should ramp, maybe what the exit run rate is going to look like in the fourth quarter?

好的。明白了。接下來我要跟進的是國防部部分。首先，我想感謝您開始分解 NGDV，以便我們可以看到那裡的收入。您能否就此發表評論－營收將如何成長，第四季的退出運行率將會是多少？

And then relative to your initial guidance for segment margin, how should we think about the cadence of margin given that we're starting the year at breakeven basically? Thank you.

然後，相對於您對分部利潤率的初步指導，考慮到我們今年基本上處於收支平衡狀態，我們應該如何考慮利潤率的節奏？謝謝。

So Mig, in defense, we've always talked about how we will exit the year at full year run rate, and that's 16,000 to 20,000 units of NGDV production. Obviously, the first quarter would be the lowest quarter, and we said that should be about linear across the year. So that's really how I would think about the revenue. In terms of margins in Defense, you would expect that to ramp up sequentially as well to support a reasonable rate as we guided earlier in the year. Net of -- I mean, excluding tariffs, obviously.

因此，米格，為了辯護，我們一直在談論如何以全年運行率結束今年的計劃，即 NGDV 產量為 16,000 至 20,000 輛。顯然，第一季將是最低的一個季度，我們說這應該全年呈線性關係。這就是我對收入的看法。就國防利潤率而言，您可以預期它也會逐級上升，以支持我們今年早些時候指導的合理利率。淨額——我的意思是，顯然不包括關稅。

Yeah. And the Q1 did not influence our outlook for the year at all. There's a little bit of tariff impact, but mostly the Q1 being breakeven, that did not influence our confidence that defense is going to do exactly what we expect it to do.

是的。第一季的情況完全沒有影響我們對今年的展望。關稅確實有一點影響，但主要是因為第一季實現了收支平衡，這並沒有影響我們對國防將按照預期發揮作用的信心。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jamie Cook, Truist.

傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist。

Hi, good morning. I guess two questions and sorry, more tariff questions for you there. But of the $1 headwind that you're talking about, is there any way you could allocate that sort of across the segment? It sounds like most of that would hit Access. And then I'm just trying to figure out of the $0.50 does more go to Access as well. So any help there would be helpful. Thank you.

嗨，早安。我想有兩個問題，抱歉，還有更多關稅問題想問您。但是，對於您所說的 1 美元逆風，有什麼方法可以將其分配到整個細分市場中嗎？聽起來大部分都會影響 Access。然後我只是想弄清楚這 0.50 美元中是否還有更多錢流向了 Access。因此任何幫助都是有幫助的。謝謝。

Hi Jamie, thanks for the question. So as I mentioned, most of the cost elements would be Access in terms of how the costs flow through on tariffs. The cost offsets, those will be broad-based across the company. So it would be difficult for me to allocate that specifically to the segments.

你好，傑米，謝謝你的提問。正如我所提到的，就成本如何通過關稅流動而言，大多數成本要素都是准入。成本抵銷將在整個公司範圍內廣泛實施。因此，我很難將其具體分配給各個部分。

But I mean, I'm assuming the $1 like over half, you mean like $0.70 or the majority of that is all Access because I'm just trying to think about the implications for margins. I mean, I think before you guys were targeting a 13% margin for the year. So obviously, that's off the table, but I'm just trying to think how low margins go there.

但我的意思是，我假設 1 美元超過一半，你的意思是 0.70 美元或其中大部分都是 Access，因為我只是在考慮對利潤的影響。我的意思是，我認為你們之前的目標是今年的利潤率為 13%。顯然，這是不可能的，但我只是想知道那裡的利潤率會有多低。

We're not going to provide specific guidance on margin by segment relative to the tariff impacts because we see this up to $1. And obviously, it's a dynamic environment. So we're going to have to adjust as policies evolve.

我們不會針對關稅影響提供各部門利潤率的具體指導，因為我們認為關稅影響最高可達 1 美元。顯然，這是一個動態的環境。因此我們必須隨著政策的演變而做出調整。

Okay. And then I guess just back to Access again. John, any color -- I guess, just broadly across the board, any color in terms of as you're talking to customers with regards to tariffs, just their sentiment. So far, the results, I think, across the board haven't been as bad as people would have thought. So just wondering what you're thinking or hearing how customers are reacting. Thank you.

好的。然後我想又回到 Access 了。約翰，任何顏色——我想，就關稅而言，任何顏色，只要是大體上的顏色，就代表他們的情緒。到目前為止，我認為整體結果並不像人們想像的那麼糟糕。所以只是想知道您在想什麼或聽到客戶的反應如何。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. And we have great relationships with our customers, and we talk to them all the time, of course. So if you look at our customers, I think they've got a pretty balanced view on 2025. I think the best indicator is our backlog coming out of the quarter at $1.8 billion. $1.8 billion backlog for Access is a very healthy backlog coming into Q2.

是的，當然。我們與客戶保持著良好的關係，當然，我們也一直與他們保持溝通。所以如果你看看我們的客戶，我認為他們對 2025 年有一個相當平衡的看法。我認為最好的指標是我們本季的積壓訂單金額為 18 億美元。對於 Access 來說，進入第二季度，18 億美元的積壓訂單是一個非常健康的積壓訂單。

And as was the order rate throughout the first quarter. So that's kind of a metric that I always point to because it indicates what customers expect. But underneath that, you hear our customers talk about fleet productivity or they talk about utilization rates. Those are both in a healthy range. There is no defleeting that's happening in the market.

第一季的訂單率也是如此。所以這是我經常關注的指標，因為它顯示了客戶的期望。但在這背後，你會聽到我們的客戶談論車隊生產力或利用率。這兩個都處於健康範圍內。市場上沒有發生任何轉移。

So the customer sentiment is continuing to be what we would expect coming into Q2. And I think in line with our expectations when we provided guidance one quarter ago. So it's continuing to stay the course.

因此，客戶情緒將繼續符合我們對第二季的預期。我認為這與我們一個季度前提供指導時的預期一致。所以它會繼續保持下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs

傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich），高盛

Yeah, hi good morning everyone. I'm wondering if I could ask -- in terms of orders that you folks are taking today, can you just talk about the terms that you're implementing by business to provide protection just in case tariffs are at the high end of the expectation range? Can you just talk about the parameters for fire trucks in particular, that are in backlog as well, John, in terms of what kind of protection you folks might have on that book of business given the long lead times?

是的，大家早安。我想知道我是否可以問一下——就您今天接受的訂單而言，您能否談談你們企業正在實施的條款，以便在關稅達到預期範圍的高端時提供保護？約翰，您能否特別談談消防車的參數，這些參數也處於積壓狀態，考慮到較長的交貨時間，您可以對這批業務採取什麼樣的保護措施？

Yeah. So I'll tell you a lot of the work that -- all the work that you're referring to is already done quite a while ago because as I mentioned earlier, when we had the ramp in inflation a few years ago, we have pricing power, but it took us a little while to realize it because of big backlogs. So we corrected that in our end markets. So some of those end markets have different Ts and Cs than others because you have, in one end market, a bonded order with municipality and another end market is more private customer work. But we have those terms and conditions in and they vary depending on the end market.

是的。所以我會告訴你很多工作——你所提到的所有工作很久以前就已經完成了，因為正如我之前提到的，幾年前通貨膨脹上升時，我們有定價權，但由於大量積壓，我們花了一段時間才意識到這一點。因此我們在終端市場上糾正了這一點。因此，一些終端市場與其他終端市場有不同的條款和條件，因為在一個終端市場中，你與市政當局有保稅訂單，而另一個終端市場則更多地是私人客戶工作。但我們有這些條款和條件，它們根據最終市場而有所不同。

We feel comfortable with where those are. But I want to go back and reemphasize our MO -- the tariffs are probably going to lead to some price increases, but our MO is to try to minimize that impact on the customer. again, because any market has elasticity to demand, and we know that, and we want to minimize the impact. I think we have a better chance of minimizing this impact because in the inflationary period of '21 to '23, it was broad-based and global. I mean there wasn't a lot of places you could run.

我們對這些情況感到滿意。但我想回過頭來再次強調我們的做法——關稅可能會導致價格上漲，但我們的做法是盡量減少對客戶的影響。再說一次，因為任何市場對需求都有彈性，我們知道這一點，我們希望盡量減少影響。我認為我們有更好的機會將這種影響降到最低，因為在21年至23年的通膨時期，它是廣泛的和全球性的。我的意思是，沒有太多地方可以跑步。

When we have the tariff scenario, while it's relatively broad-based, there are -- we know exactly where the impact for us is and where it is not. And we know, therefore, in very targeted ways where we can focus to be able to mitigate the impact of tariffs over time. And that's what we'll be doing.

當我們有關稅情景時，雖然它的基礎相對廣泛，但我們確切地知道哪些地方會受到衝擊，哪些地方不會。因此，我們知道，我們可以採取非常有針對性的方式，從而能夠隨著時間的推移減輕關稅的影響。這就是我們要做的。

Super. And just to shift gears, capital deployment has been a big focus for you folks, AeroTech doing really well. Do you see an opportunity in the current environment for meaningful M&A? Or is the focus here, let's make sure we execute on the tariff and manufacturing transition?

極好的。換個話題，資本部署一直是你們關注的重點，AeroTech 的表現非常好。您是否認為當前環境下存在進行有意義的併購的機會？或者重點是，讓我們確保執行關稅和製造業轉型？

Well, mitigating tariffs is job one right now, of course, right? I mean I think probably everybody would tell you that. But we have an M&A. We do have an active corporate development group. We have what we always call an always-on approach, and our team is looking at opportunities all the time. And we still have a strong balance sheet, so we have capacity.

嗯，當然，降低關稅是目前的首要任務，對吧？我的意思是我想可能每個人都會告訴你這一點。但我們有併購。我們確實有一個活躍的企業發展小組。我們始終秉持著所謂的「永遠在線」的方法，我們的團隊一直在尋找機會。而且我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，所以我們有能力。

I'll tell you what we look at when we look at our M&A work to be a little bit more focused on it, we look at growth in healthy segments like within our vocational segment, near adjacencies to that. We look at growth and resiliency in our Access segments, and we look at targets with recurring -- good recurring revenue streams.

我會告訴你，當我們審視我們的併購工作時，我們會更加關注它，我們會專注於健康領域的成長，例如我們的職業領域及其附近的領域。我們專注於 Access 部門的成長和彈性，並專注於具有經常性（良好經常性收入流）的目標。

But I want to point out -- I do want to point out that we carefully scrutinize our capital allocation priorities. And we'll always, always, no matter what the case, reinvest in our businesses organically. But really, right now in this period of time, I will say that returning money to shareholders when our multiple is where it is, becomes a bigger and bigger priority.

但我想指出——我確實想指出，我們仔細審查了我們的資本配置優先事項。而且無論情況如何，我們都會始終對我們的業務進行有機再投資。但實際上，在目前的這個時期，我想說，當我們的本益比達到一定水準時，向股東返還資金將成為越來越重要的優先事項。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jerry.

謝謝，傑瑞。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

Hi, This is Brendan on for Angel. If I could just touch on Access quickly. So you noted not seeing material impacts from tariffs to customer demand yet, but volumes there were a bit of a headwind. So just kind of higher level, if you could give more color what you're seeing in terms of the overall construction market conditions in the US and Europe and how that might be impacting the higher sales discounts that you noted in the quarter? Thanks.

大家好，我是 Angel 的 Brendan。如果我可以快速談談 Access 的話。因此，您注意到目前還沒有看到關稅對客戶需求產生實質影響，但那裡的銷售有點逆風。因此，從更高層面來說，您是否可以更詳細地介紹您所看到的美國和歐洲整體建築市場狀況，以及這可能會如何影響您在本季注意到的更高的銷售折扣？謝謝。

Yeah, I think that when you look at demand in the Access Equipment segment, demand is really still strong and healthy, and you hear our customers talk about it, those that are public companies, really solid with mega projects, whether it's an infrastructure project or it's a data center, those in particular, the backlog certainly supports that outlook.

是的，我認為，當你看一下接入設備領域的需求時，需求仍然強勁而健康，你會聽到我們的客戶談論它，那些上市公司，在大型項目方面確實很穩健，無論是基礎設施項目還是數據中心，特別是那些，積壓訂單肯定支持這種前景。

And I think customers are seeing relatively healthy demand in non-construction environments. You have to remember, our equipment goes into a lot of end markets that have nothing to do with construction, and those markets are holding up fairly well. I think the area that we're seeing weakness, and this is probably not new, it's in the kind of the private nonresidential construction markets.

我認為客戶在非建築環境中看到了相對健康的需求。你必須記住，我們的設備進入了許多與建築無關的終端市場，而且這些市場表現相當良好。我認為我們看到的疲軟領域可能並不新鮮，它存在於私人非住宅建築市場中。

There's a lot of projects out there, but there's a lot of projects that are kind of in wait-and-see mode. We're kind of on hold right now. Interest rates are still high. And I think that, that's why we gave the original guide that we did when we came into the year that we guided that we'll be down about 15% in our Access market. We're kind of holding to that right now.

目前有很多項目，但也有很多項目處於觀望狀態。我們現在處於暫停狀態。利率仍然很高。我認為，這就是我們在年初給出的原始指導意見的原因，我們指導說我們的 Access 市場將下降約 15%。我們現在就堅持這一點。

We still think that that's our outlook. And that's driven again by that private non-res construction market that there's a lot on deck just that with the conditions where they are, people have to come up to bat. And that -- but that's in line with our guidance. That's all in line with our guidance.

我們仍然認為這就是我們的觀點。這又受到私人非住宅建築市場的推動，該市場有很多事情要做，只是在目前的條件下，人們必須挺身而出。而且 — — 但這符合我們的指導。這一切都符合我們的指導。

Okay, great, thank you for that. And then for my follow-up, if we could talk on Vocational. Just what's driving the strong performance in refuse and recycling that you've seen? And how does that compare, I guess, to your internal expectations? Thank you.

好的，太好了，謝謝你。接下來我想問一下，我們是否可以討論一下職業問題。究竟是什麼推動了垃圾處理和回收領域的強勁表現？我想，這與您的內心期望相比如何？謝謝。

Yeah, I think that the refuse and recycling market is one we've been optimistic about for a long time. We like the market. We like the resiliency of the market. We like the customers.

是的，我認為垃圾和回收市場是我們長期以來一直看好的市場。我們喜歡這個市場。我們喜歡市場的彈性。我們喜歡顧客。

We like the need and the desire for us to apply our technological capability, whether it's autonomous functionality or electrification to lower cost, those types of opportunities. So we've made some investments in this marketplace. And some of the -- you've seen the product investments. If you went to the CES show, if you go to Waste Expo that's coming up shortly, you'll see a lot of new technology that we've come out with to drive productivity in the end markets. We also made an investment in our manufacturing capability.

我們喜歡應用我們的技術能力的需求和願望，無論是自主功能還是電氣化以降低成本，這些都是機會。所以我們在這個市場做了一些投資。其中一些——您已經看到了產品投資。如果您參觀過 CES 展會，如果您參觀即將舉行的廢棄物博覽會，您會看到我們推出的許多新技術，它們可以提高終端市場的生產力。我們也對製造能力進行了投資。

We really have state-of-the-art manufacturing now. And we're getting -- you're seeing the fruits of that investment right now as that the productivity in our plants is up dramatically. The output is really healthy, and that's what's driving some of these results, and we expect that, that will continue.

我們現在確實擁有最先進的製造業。我們正在獲得—您現在就看到了這項投資的成果，因為我們工廠的生產力大幅提高。產出確實很健康，這就是推動這些成果的因素，我們預期這種情況將會持續下去。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Brandon.

謝謝，布蘭登。

Tami Zakaria, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hey, good morning. Thank you so much. So Access margins were quite impressive given the pullback in sales in the first quarter. So just wanted to get some color on the second quarter. Usually, it's a sequential step-up. But given all the tariffs, how should we think about Access margin in 2Q versus what we saw in the first quarter?

嘿，早安。太感謝了。因此，考慮到第一季銷售額的下滑，Access 的利潤率仍然相當可觀。所以只是想了解第二季的情況。通常，這是一個連續的升級過程。但考慮到所有的關稅，我們應該如何看待第二季的接取利潤率與第一季的相比呢？

Hi Tami, thanks for pointing out the resilience in Access. It's good to have a positive question like that. We talked on our Q4 call about the work the Access team has done to improve resilience in a relatively down year. And what you're seeing in the first quarter and what we guided to for the year and inherent in the original $11 was that resilience in margin. So set aside tariffs, I would expect second, third quarter to be stronger than the first.

嗨，Tami，感謝您指出 Access 的彈性。有這樣一個積極的問題真是太好了。我們在第四季度電話會議上討論了 Access 團隊在相對低迷的一年裡為提高彈性所做的工作。您在第一季看到的以及我們對全年的預期以及最初 11 美元所固有的利潤率彈性。因此，撇開關稅不談，我預計第二季和第三季的表現將比第一季強勁。

We did talk about that on the Q4 call, the first quarter would be our lowest quarter. You throw in tariffs, we still expect second quarter to be quite strong just because you don't really see a tariff impact because of inventories in the second quarter. Beyond that, I referenced the guidance we've provided in terms of the dollars and the offsets, but it's difficult to say how the rest of the year shapes up.

我們確實在第四季度電話會議上談到了這一點，第一季將是我們業績最低的季度。加上關稅，我們仍然預計第二季的表現會相當強勁，因為你實際上並沒有看到關稅因第二季庫存而產生的影響。除此之外，我參考了我們在金額和抵銷方面提供的指導，但很難說今年剩餘時間的情況如何。

Understood. And the follow-up is the $1 EPS headwind, that's essentially a partial year number, not an annualized headwind, assuming the tech -- go ahead.

明白了。而後續是每股收益 1 美元的逆風，這本質上是一個部分年份的數字，而不是年度逆風，假設技術 - 繼續。

Yeah. No, no, that's right. So for this year, we see that as $1, mostly back half loaded, obviously, just how tariffs will work. Obviously, over time we have more levers. Resourcing is a bit of a lag. You can't do that in day one. And so that $1 would be the impact on this year. And again, we've got levers we pull over time depending on how the tariffs work and how they're instituted.

是的。不不不，沒錯。因此，就今年而言，我們認為這一數字為 1 美元，大部分是半價，顯然，關稅將如何運作。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們會擁有更多的槓桿。資源配置有點滯後。第一天你無法做到這一點。因此這 1 美元將對今年產生影響。再說一次，我們會根據關稅的運作方式和製定方式採取不同的措施。

Yeah, Tami, a good point. The $1 is year number, but we are not standing still. We are -- I talked about how quickly we were able to move to mitigate European tariffs, which is a pretty big number, by the way, that we were able to mitigate. We are doing the exact same thing with these tariffs. We're not standing still.

是的，塔米，說得對。1 美元是年份數字，但我們並沒有停滯不前。我們——我談到了我們能夠多麼迅速地採取行動來降低歐洲關稅，順便說一句，我們能夠降低的歐洲關稅數額相當大。我們對這些關稅採取了完全相同的做法。我們並沒有停滯不前。

We will continue to drive activity and minimize any -- our intent is to minimize as much as we possibly can for 2026 and beyond and that we believe we can minimize or minimize and mitigate a significant portion of those.

我們將繼續推動活動並盡量減少任何 - 我們的目的是盡可能地減少 2026 年及以後的影響，並且我們相信我們可以盡量減少或盡量減輕其中的很大一部分。

That's wonderful. Thank you.

太棒了。謝謝。

Thanks, Tami.

謝謝，塔米。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

花旗銀行的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

Hi, thanks for taking the question. I just had a couple on just digging into the segment revenue results a little bit more, like starting with Access. Telehandler sales were certainly down a little bit more than I anticipated and down actually quite a bit more than the AWPs in the quarter. So if you could just provide some color, help me understand kind of what drove that? And I guess, is that already seeing the impact of the loss of the Cat contract? Like is that what that is?

你好，謝謝你回答這個問題。我剛剛對分部收入結果進行了更深入的探討，例如從 Access 開始。伸縮臂堆高機的銷售量確實比我預期的下降幅度要大一些，實際上比本季的高空作業平台 (AWP) 的銷量下降幅度還要大。所以，如果您可以提供一些信息，幫助我理解是什麼導致了這種情況？我想，這是否已經體現出失去 Cat 合約的影響了？就像那樣嗎？

It's some of the Cat impact is in there, yes. But I would caution you not to look too much into the first quarter revenue across the Access business because the first quarter is -- second quarter and third quarter are much more indicative of what the health of the market looks like. While telehandler sales were down in the quarter, I'll just point to the fact that our market share climb in telehandler business.

是的，其中確實存在一些 Cat 的影響。但我要提醒您，不要太在意 Access 業務第一季的收入，因為第一季——第二季和第三季更能說明市場的健康狀況。雖然本季伸縮臂叉裝機的銷量有所下降，但我要指出的是，我們的伸縮臂叉裝機業務的市佔率有所上升。

So this has not impacted our decision -- our outlook at all in the long-term health of the telehandler market, where it's going, where we're going with it, why we put in investments into manufacturing these products. That all -- we're as confident about that today as we've ever been. And just because the sales were down in telehandlers in Q1 doesn't change that. And again, I'll point to the fact that we continue to have the leading share in this market and a growing share in the market.

所以這並沒有影響我們的決定——我們對伸縮臂堆高機市場長期健康狀況的展望，它的發展方向，我們的發展方向，以及我們為何投資製造這些產品。這一切——我們今天對此充滿信心，一如既往。雖然第一季伸縮臂叉裝機銷售下降並不能改變這一現狀。我再次強調，我們仍然佔據著這個市場的領先地位，而這一份額還在不斷增長。

Helpful thanks and then just looking at the refuse and recycling side, I mean, those revenues were up quite a bit in the quarter. Could you just help us understand like how much of that is market growth versus you outgrowing the market? And then, I guess, layer in some impact assumed as you stock dealers as you move to more of a distribution model? And I guess, could that create a tough comp for next year?

非常有幫助，謝謝，然後只看垃圾和回收方面，我的意思是，這些收入在本季度增長了不少。您能否幫助我們了解其中有多少是市場成長，有多少是您的成長超越了市場？然後，我想，當您轉向分銷模式時，您會對股票經銷商產生一些影響嗎？我想，這會為明年的比賽帶來困難嗎？

I don't expect it to create a tough comp for next year. No, you pointed out two things. Number one, yeah, we have been able to -- because our production investments are paying off, we've been able to catch up a little bit in the backlog. That drove some of it, but that was not the whole story. You mentioned about the dealer network now.

我並不認為這會為明年的比賽帶來困難。不，你指出了兩件事。首先，是的，我們能夠——因為我們的生產投資正在獲得回報，所以我們能夠彌補一些積壓的工作。這在某種程度上推動了事情的發展，但這並不是全部。您現在提到了經銷商網路。

So we've got a much more comprehensive go-to-market strategy that we've executed where we brought on a fantastic, fantastic dealer network, highly professional, a lot of aftersales service centers around the country with our dealer network. That allows us to go into the small and midsized refuse companies and really make sure we're serving them well, along with our big customers that are out there, and you know the big customers' names that we've been serving for a long time, and they're growing nicely as well.

因此，我們制定了更全面的市場進入策略，並在該策略中建立了出色的經銷商網絡，高度專業化，並在全國各地設立了許多售後服務中心。這使我們能夠進入中小型垃圾處理公司，真正確保我們能為他們以及我們的大客戶提供良好的服務，而且您知道我們已經服務了很長時間的大客戶的名字，他們也在很好地發展。

So I think that, that dealer network that we brought on, yes, that's starting to help us grow, but we don't see a scenario where it's going to create a big spike in a comp problem next year. We do not see that.

所以我認為，我們建立的經銷商網路確實開始幫助我們發展，但我們不認為它會在明年造成公司問題的大幅成長。我們沒有看到這一點。

Helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks, Kyle.

謝謝，凱爾。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Hi, good morning guys.

大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

So morning. So my question is on the $1 impact from tariffs that you guys are guiding to. So it sounds like it's very back-end loaded. Is it fair to say nearly all the whole dollar goes into 3Q and 4Q? And then secondly, on the $0.50 of mitigation efforts, is that mainly cost? Are you embedding some price increase?

早安.所以我的問題是關於你們所指導的關稅對 1 美元的影響。聽起來它非常依賴後端。可以說幾乎所有的美元都投入了第三季和第四季嗎？其次，對於 0.50 美元的緩解措施，這主要是成本嗎？您是否會嵌入一些價格上漲？

And then secondly, is that more like a 3Q or 4Q event? And then I guess, like what do you think in terms of when that P&L impact actually hits?

其次，這更像是第三季或第四季事件嗎？然後我想，您認為損益表的影響何時才會真正顯現？

Hi Chad. So if you think about the dollar and the $0.50 offset, I would say they're both Q3, Q4 primarily because, again, the cost actions are really taking hold on spending, restraining growth, slowing down hiring, all of those things. And then the tariff impact, obviously, that net of mitigation efforts would be mostly Q3, Q4 as well.

你好，乍得。因此，如果你考慮美元和 0.50 美元的抵消，我會說它們都是第三季度、第四季度，主要是因為成本行動確實對支出產生了影響，抑制了增長，減緩了招聘，所有這些事情。那麼，顯然，扣除緩解措施後，關稅的影響將主要出現在第三季和第四季。

Got it. And the breakdown between cost versus price increases?

知道了。成本與價格上漲的差異如何？

It's all in there. So any of the cost actions and any pricing associated with tariffs would be in the dollar and the $0.50 really is on overall corporate cost, belt tightening and so forth. Yeah.

一切都在裡面。因此，任何成本行動和與關稅相關的任何定價都將以美元計算，而這 0.50 美元實際上是企業整體成本、勒緊褲腰帶等等。是的。

Chad, we -- our plan is kind of short term and then longer term. So because to mitigate these tariffs, it takes work, it takes engineering work, you're doing supply chain reorganization, that type of activity. And you can't do that overnight. That takes some time.

查德，我們的計劃是短期的，然後是長期的。因此，為了減輕這些關稅，需要付出努力，需要進行工程工作，需要進行供應鏈重組等活動。但你不可能一夕之間就做到這一點。這需要一些時間。

And so in the short term, what we do is we really tighten the belt up a few notches and go after any cost that we can go after in the short-term period to mitigate the tariffs until we get to the point where the longer-term strategies kick in, and that provides benefit in '26 and beyond. But that '25 is really tightening up the belt to make sure we protect the year and protect our customers.

因此，在短期內，我們所做的就是勒緊褲腰帶，在短期內盡可能地降低關稅，直到我們達到長期策略開始發揮作用的地步，這將在 26 年及以後帶來利益。但 25 年確實需要勒緊褲帶，以確保我們保護好這一年並保護我們的客戶。

Okay. That's super helpful color. So just shifting gears on the fire side of your business. Just more broadly, I mean, like where do you think we are in that replacement cycle? You've had a strong couple of years. And I would just love to get some color on -- in terms of like what inning we are and how you're thinking about that business as we look towards the next one to two years?

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。因此，只需改變業務熱點方面的節奏即可。更廣泛地說，我的意思是，您認為我們處於更換週期的哪個階段？這幾年你過得非常順利。我很想了解一下——例如我們處於什麼階段，以及您對未來一到兩年的業務有何看法？

Yeah. I think that the fire market is going to be a really healthy market for the foreseeable future. And we did see a spike in the market coming out of COVID. It went way up beyond anybody's forecast, and that's why lead times have gotten long for the industry. And the industry will recover from that as we put capacity in place to be able to meet the current demand environment.

是的。我認為在可預見的未來，消防市場將會是一個非常健康的市場。我們確實看到市場在新冠疫情後出現了飆升。它遠遠超出了任何人的預測，這就是為什麼該行業的交貨時間變得很長。隨著我們投入足夠的產能來滿足當前的需求環境，該產業將會復甦。

So going forward, why are we confident this is going to continue to be a healthy market for us? We're confident because there's aged fleets in the market all over the country, there's aged fleets. We know what the fleet age is. We talk to fire departments all the time, and we know what their desire is for upgrading their fleets.

那麼展望未來，我們為什麼有信心這對我們來說將繼續是一個健康的市場？我們有信心，因為全國各地的市場都有老舊車隊。我們知道船隊的年齡。我們一直與消防部門保持溝通，我們知道他們對升級消防隊的願望是什麼。

In addition to that, you see a lot of technological upgrades that we're introducing, and we showed them off at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas and FDIC. We had all sorts of technology on display at FDIC in Indianapolis just recently. And this is desired by municipalities. They want these types of technologies that promote safety and productivity for the most important fleet of vehicles in just about any community that there is.

除此之外，您還可以看到我們推出的許多技術升級，我們在拉斯維加斯消費電子展和聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 上展示了它們。我們最近在印第安納波利斯的聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 展示了各種技術。這也是市政當局所希望的。他們希望這些技術能提高幾乎任何社區中最重要的車隊的安全性和生產力。

And that demand, because of the aged fleet and because of the desire for that technology, we believe, is going to -- when you look at the size of the fleet and where half the fleet age is fairly aged, that tells us that this is going to be a healthy market for the foreseeable future in our forecast.

由於機隊老化和對這項技術的需求，我們相信，當你看到機隊的規模以及一半機隊的年齡都相當老舊時，這告訴我們，在我們的預測中，在可預見的未來，這將是一個健康的市場。

Now I'm not saying it's going to be at -- it went -- it spiked up coming out of the pandemic to a pretty high level. I'm not saying it's going to stay up there, but it doesn't need to stay up there. It just needs to be healthy, consistent growth over a long period of time, and we'll be able to satisfy the industry with the new innovations we're bringing forward.

現在我並不是說它會達到——它已經——在疫情結束後飆升到相當高的水平。我並不是說它會一直留在那裡，而是它不需要一直留在那裡。它只需要在很長一段時間內保持健康、持續的成長，我們就能夠透過我們提出的新創新來滿足產業的需求。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Chad.

謝謝，乍得。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc.

KeyBanc 的 Steve Barger。

Hey, good morning. For the full year 2024, Vocational incremental margin ran at 27%, and it was better than that in 1Q. So when you think about planned capacity actions and mix in the upcoming production schedule, should we think that segment can keep running at 27% or better for the year?

嘿，早安。2024年全年，職業增量利潤率為27%，優於第一季。因此，當您考慮計劃的產能行動並結合即將到來的生產計劃時，我們是否應該認為該部門今年的運行率可以保持 27% 或更高？

So the first quarter was a very strong result in Access. We're pleased to see that. Last year was strong. We are making a --

因此，第一季 Access 的業績非常強勁。我們很高興看到這一點。去年表現強勁。我們正在製作--

This is Vocational?

這是職業嗎？

Sorry, Vocational. Too many questions on Access. Sorry. So Vocational has had strong results. We continue to make investments in capacity. So some of those investments will reduce that incrementality as we put down cost to drive volume over time. But overall, we do continue to believe, as we've talked about before, in the strength of Vocational and the opportunities we have there, whether that's in fire, where we talked earlier, but also in refuse where you see continued strength based off the capacity we put in place over the last couple of years.

抱歉，職業。關於 Access 的問題太多了。對不起。因此，職業教育取得了顯著成果。我們將繼續對產能進行投資。因此，隨著我們降低成本以推動銷量，其中一些投資將會減少增量。但總體而言，正如我們之前談到的，我們確實繼續相信職業教育的實力和我們在那裡擁有的機會，無論是在火災方面（我們之前談到的），還是在垃圾處理方面，你都可以看到基於我們在過去幾年中建立的能力而持續的實力。

Capacity notwithstanding, you don't expect a negative mix, like you'll still continue to monetize better pricing and that sort of thing in the backlog?

儘管產能有限，但您預計不會出現負面組合，例如您仍會繼續透過更好的定價等方式在積壓訂單中獲利？

Yeah. We have considerable pricing still in the backlog to flush out as we build. And so the more capacity we can put in place, the more we build ahead units that are planned for the future.

是的。我們在建設過程中仍有大量的定價積壓需要解決。因此，我們投入的產能越多，我們為未來規劃的提前建造的單位就越多。

Got it. And I know you're agnostic to drivetrain, and it's mostly ice to start, but any update on guidance you're getting in terms of mix for internal combustion versus battery electric for NGDV?

知道了。我知道您對動力傳動系統不太了解，而且啟動時大多是在冰面上，但是關於 NGDV 的內燃機與電池電動混合方面，您有什麼更新的指導嗎？

We talk to Postal Service all the time. We had the entire leadership team of the Postal Service at our plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina just recently. It was a phenomenal visit. They saw the product being produced down the production line.

我們一直與郵政局保持溝通。最近，我們整個郵政服務領導團隊來到了位於南卡羅來納州斯帕坦堡的工廠。這是一次非凡的訪問。他們看到了生產線上生產的產品。

We were just with them earlier this week at their National Postal Forum. It is, stay the course, we need vehicles. The vehicle is performing exceptionally well, and we feel really good about it. So the simple answer to your question is there has not been any mix shifts. They're taking both internal combustion and they're taking battery electric. They're staying the course that they've been on. We're happy to supply them with whatever mix that they want, and we'll let them make that decision. But at this point, we're continuing to stay the course per their direction.

本週早些時候，我們剛剛在他們的國家郵政論壇上見到了他們。是的，堅持下去，我們需要車輛。該車輛的性能非常出色，我們對此感覺非常好。因此，對於您的問題，簡單的答案是沒有任何混合變化。他們既採用內燃機，也採用電池電動車。他們仍堅持自己一直以來的路線。我們很樂意向他們提供他們想要的任何混合物，並讓他們自己做出決定。但目前，我們將繼續按照他們的指示堅持下去。

All right, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Judah Aronovitz, UBS.

瑞銀的 Judah Aronovitz。

Hey, good morning, Calling in for Steve Fisher. Just on the catch-up adjustment in defense, which programs was that tied to? And how should we think about risk going forward?

嘿，早安，我是史蒂夫費雪。僅就防守方面的追趕調整而言，這與哪些項目有關？我們該如何看待未來的風險？

Hi Judah, it's Matt. So in terms of the CCA, really, that's a function of continued line rebalancing we're doing in defense. And so you had a catch-up adjustment on JLTV as we were building up those last units as well as FMTV. Those were the two primary programs. You shouldn't -- you can't expect future CCAs necessarily because the very nature of the accounting that results in a CCA is you're putting forward your projection of what's going to happen in the future into that. So I wouldn't expect any material CCA going forward based off what we see today.

你好，Judah，我是 Matt。因此，就 CCA 而言，這實際上是我們在防禦中持續進行線路重新平衡的功能。因此，當我們建立最後的單元以及 FMTV 時，您對 JLTV 進行了追趕調整。這是兩個主要項目。您不應該——您不能必然期望未來的 CCA，因為導致 CCA 的會計的本質是您將對未來將要發生的事情的預測提出到其中。因此，根據我們今天看到的情況，我不會預期未來會出現任何實質的 CCA 進展。

Thanks.

謝謝。

David Raso, Evercore.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore。

Hi, thank you. Just one clear, and I apologize, I've been hopping between calls. There's no change in the segment guidance’s from before, except for allocating the $0.50 drag in the guide and that -- most of that hit or if you can help me with the mix of the hit that goes to Access versus the other businesses. I know it's a large part of it. But is that correct? No change to the revenue by segments, just a change on the net $0.50 cost, mostly second half and majority Access. Is that correct?

你好，謝謝。只有一個問題，我很抱歉，我一直在通話之間徘徊。與以前相比，部門指導沒有變化，除了在指導中分配 0.50 美元的拖累，而且 — — 其中大部分是衝擊，或者如果您能幫助我計算出 Access 與其他業務的衝擊組合。我知道這是其中很大一部分。但這是正確嗎？各部分的收入沒有變化，只是淨成本 0.50 美元發生了變化，主要是下半年和大多數 Access 的收入。對嗎？

Hey David, I think that's a fair characterization. I mean this is a dynamic environment. So spreading out the exact revenue impacts and how that works exactly by segment is difficult to do. We reiterated that without tariffs, we would be comfortable with the $11 in the guidance we put out, including by segments and margins. With the tariff impact, the dollar and then the cost offset of $0.50, more difficult to provide specific guidance to the level we did earlier. But I think broad-based, you've characterized it fairly.

嘿，大衛，我認為這是一個公平的描述。我的意思是這是一個動態的環境。因此，要分攤確切的收入影響以及按細分市場具體如何運作是困難的。我們重申，如果沒有關稅，我們會對我們發布的 11 美元的指導價格感到滿意，包括分部門和利潤率。由於關稅的影響，美元和 0.50 美元的成本抵消，更難以提供我們先前所做的具體指導。但我認為從廣泛角度來看，你的描述是公平的。

But it's fair to say of the net, call it, $42.5 million, $42 million pretax, right, the net not the dollar, the $0.50, is a large majority, just to be clear, should be Access. Because I'm just trying to think through the margins for the rest of the year. Ex tariffs, you're implying decrementals at around 30% for Access. And again, this is keeping the original revenue guide, which seems a pretty impressive result given the magnitude of the revenue decline. And then obviously, have to layer in the related tariffs.

但公平地說，淨額，稱之為 4250 萬美元，稅前 4200 萬美元，對，淨額而不是美元，0.50 美元，佔了很大一部分，只是為了清楚起見，應該是 Access。因為我只是在思考今年剩餘時間的利潤。除關稅外，您暗示 Access 的減幅約為 30%。再次強調，這是保持原始收入指南，考慮到收入下降的幅度，這似乎是一個相當令人印象深刻的結果。然後顯然必須分層徵收相關關稅。

So that's I was just looking for a little guidance. Of the $42 million-ish of pretax hit in the second half net, should we apply again a large majority, $30 million plus, $35 million plus to Access? Just if we had tried to bulk in a little bit.

所以我只是想尋求一點指導。在下半年淨稅前損失 4,200 萬美元左右中，我們是否應該再次將大部分（3,000 多萬美元、3,500 多萬美元）用於 Access？如果我們嘗試稍微增加一點數量就好了。

Yeah, I can't be as explicit and precise as what you're asking. But I think you can think of the broad brush of the dollar hitting Access. The $0.50 will be more spread across the company based off our cost structure. Decrementals, when we set up our guidance in Access was about 33% with the allocation of the dollar and tariff impact, obviously, that will move around some.

是的，我無法像你問的那樣明確和精確。但我想你可以想像美元對 Access 造成的巨大衝擊。根據我們的成本結構，0.50 美元將在整個公司分攤。減量，當我們在 Access 中設定指引時，約為 33%，考慮到美元的分配和關稅的影響，顯然，這個數字會有所變動。

That's helpful. I know it's not easy. I'm just -- we're all on the same boat here trying to model the unknown. And when it comes to the cadence of the revenues for the rest of the year right, the rest of the year access revenue growth implied down 12% after the down 23% we just saw. Just curious, any -- from independents to majors to -- just curious when we think about that cadence, has anything changed from the original view of how we step down from the first quarter decline to the rest of the year only being down 12%?

這很有幫助。我知道這並不容易。我只是──我們都在同一條船上，試圖模擬未知的事物。而當談到今年剩餘時間的收入節奏時，今年剩餘時間的接入收入增長隱含下降 12％，而我們剛剛看到的下降是 23％。只是好奇，從獨立公司到大型公司——只是好奇，當我們考慮這種節奏時，與最初的觀點相比，有什麼變化嗎？即我們如何從第一季的下滑中走出來，到今年剩餘時間僅下降 12%？

Is it pushed out a little bit due to uncertainty? Is it customers saying, hey, if you can promise me a price, I'll take it a little bit earlier. Just curious on the cadence.

是否會因為不確定性而稍微延後？是不是顧客會說，嘿，如果你能答應我一個價格，我會早點接受。只是對節奏感到好奇。

Well, at this point, David, it has not changed. In the first quarter, we had a higher mix towards independents than we did to the big nationals. And that's primarily because in the first quarter, people are positioning fleet for the construction season. So some want it in the end of the first quarter, some want it early in the fourth quarter, depending on what their situation is. So we expect the mix to shift back more towards the nationals as the year goes on, and that's what we're seeing.

嗯，大衛，目前為止，情況還沒有改變。在第一季度，我們對獨立公司的關注度高於對大型全國性公司的關注度。這主要是因為在第一季度，人們正在為施工季節部署車隊。因此，有些人希望在第一季末實現這一目標，有些人希望在第四季初實現這一目標，這取決於他們的情況。因此，我們預計隨著時間的推移，組合將更多地轉向全國性，而這正是我們所看到的。

I'd say that's -- in total, that's in line with what we expected at the beginning of the year. We have not seen any significant moves that would cause us to change that outlook at this time on the revenue side. And going back to your first question on the tariffs, this does change on a regular basis. We have had multiple different scenarios that we've been addressing as the situation continues to evolve. And as things continue to evolve over the next -- between now and July, that will continue.

我想說的是——總的來說，這與我們年初的預期一致。目前，我們還沒有看到任何重大舉措導致我們改變收入方面的前景。回到你關於關稅的第一個問題，關稅確實會定期改變。隨著情勢的不斷發展，我們已經遇到了多種不同的情況需要解決。隨著事態的不斷發展——從現在到七月，這種情況將會持續下去。

But we have pretty good, fairly aggressive plans from what we know now to address those tariffs, which will, again, short term, it's tighten your belt, reduce cost in 2025. Longer term, the initiatives kick in on resourcing and negotiations with suppliers and all that kind of stuff you have to do. And that starts to kick in more from 2026 onward.

但從我們目前所知的情況來看，我們有相當好的、相當積極的計劃來解決這些關稅問題，短期內，這將勒緊褲腰帶，在 2025 年降低成本。從長遠來看，這些舉措將涉及資源配置、與供應商的談判以及你必須做的所有這類事情。從 2026 年開始，這一趨勢將更加明顯。

Yeah, I mean you're just in a hard situation of do we go ahead and make the move to mitigate and then we get a tweak and the changes. But I thought it was interesting the AWB assembly move to Italy following the EU duties on China. Just curious like what made that, let's just go -- let's just do it versus maybe some hesitancy around scissors out of Mexico or whatever it may be. I mean, I assume the general premise is tariffs on China are going to stay fairly high.

是的，我的意思是，你正處於一個困難的境地，我們是否應該繼續前進，採取行動來緩解，然後進行調整和改變。但我認為，在歐盟對中國徵收關稅後，AWB 組裝廠遷往義大利是件很有趣的事。只是很好奇是什麼原因造成的，我們就這麼做吧——我們就這麼做吧，而不是對墨西哥剪刀或其他東西有些猶豫。我的意思是，我認為總體前提是對中國的關稅將保持相當高的水平。

So maybe it's a little bit easier to say we have to do something. Is it the other countries where you're just sort of, again, tightening the belt, but we're not dying to make some real structural changes to our supply chain until we really know what's going on.

所以也許說我們必須做點什麼會比較容易。是不是在其他國家，你們只是再次勒緊褲腰帶，但在我們真正了解情況之前，我們不會急於對我們的供應鏈進行一些真正的結構性改變。

So with the European tariff about a year ago, it was -- we knew what they were going to do. It evolved over a relatively reasonable amount of time. And when the writing was on the wall, we knew that, that was something we could rely on, we had to react to it, and we did very, very quickly.

因此，對於大約一年前歐洲徵收的關稅，我們知道他們會怎麼做。它是在相對合理的時間內進化而來的。當事情已經註定時，我們知道，這是我們可以依賴的，我們必須對此做出反應，而且我們做得非常非常快。

In the tariffs that we're dealing with today, what's still going on is you said the rate in China is still in question, but it's a big rate and probably will be. So we'll move forward with mitigation actions on that. You've got lots of other countries that have blanket 10%, but are trying to negotiate down from much higher tariffs that were announced in early April. And the outcome of that is important to us.

在我們今天處理的關稅問題中，仍然存在的問題是您所說的中國的稅率仍然存在疑問，但這是一個很大的稅率，而且很可能會一直如此。因此，我們將繼續採取緩解措施。許多其他國家也實行一攬子 10% 的關稅，但正試圖透過談判降低 4 月初宣布的較高關稅。其結果對我們很重要。

Does a country stay at the announced rate in early April of 24% or sometimes in the 40%s? Or does it get -- does it stay at 10%? And so those outcomes will impact some of the things that we do.

一個國家是否會維持 4 月初宣布的 24% 或有時 40% 的利率？或者它會——保持在 10% 嗎？因此這些結果將影響我們所做的一些事情。

I appreciate that. Thank you so much for the conversation.

我很感激。非常感謝您的交談。

Thanks. Have a great day.

謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Mr. Davidson, I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

問答環節已結束。戴維森先生，我想把發言權交還給您，請您發表最後評論。

All right. Thanks, Christine, and thanks, everybody, for joining us on this busy earnings day. We look forward to speaking with you at a conference or perhaps during our Investor Day scheduled for Thursday morning, June 5 in New York. So have a great rest of the day and week.

好的。謝謝克里斯汀，也謝謝大家在這個繁忙的收益日加入我們。我們期待在 6 月 5 日星期四上午於紐約舉行的會議或投資者日期間與您交談。祝您今天和本週剩餘時間過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。