Oshkosh Corp (OSK) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation second-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加奧什科甚公司 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，奧什科甚公司投資者關係高級副總裁帕特·戴維森。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our second-quarter 2025 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2025 年第二季的業績。您可在我們的網站 oshkoshcorp.com 上查閱該新聞稿的副本。

Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to slide 2 of that presentation.

今天的電話會議將透過網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，也可在我們的網站上查閱。音訊重播和幻燈片演示將在我們的網站上提供約 12 個月。現在請參閱該簡報的第 2 張投影片。

Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

我們接下來的評論（包括對您的問題的回答）包含我們認為符合《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述具有風險，可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC, as well as matters noted at our Investor Day in June 2025. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

這些風險包括但不限於我們今天早上向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述的事項，以及我們在 2025 年 6 月投資者日上指出的事項。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務，這些聲明可能要等到我們下次季度收益電話會議才會更新。

Our presenters today include John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Field, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, John.

今天的演講者包括總裁兼執行長 John Pfeifer 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Matt Field。請翻到投影片 3，我會把它交給你，約翰。

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，帕特，大家早安。

Before we get into the quarter, I want to highlight the positive response we've received to our June 5 Investor Day. This slide from the event highlights the key elements that we believe make Oshkosh an attractive investment, bringing the full strength of our portfolio, united by our shared strategy, accelerated innovation in autonomy, electrification, and intelligent connected products, all supported by favorable long-term trends.

在進入本季度之前，我想強調我們在 6 月 5 日投資者日收到的積極回應。活動投影片重點介紹了我們認為使奧什科甚成為具有吸引力的投資的關鍵因素，它充分發揮了我們投資組合的優勢，透過共同的策略、自主性、電氣化和智慧互聯產品的加速創新，所有這些都得到了長期有利趨勢的支持。

I want to reiterate two key messages from the event about our 2028 targets. First, we expect to deliver sizable revenue growth. And second, we expect to transform margins. We believe many of the key drivers that support these returns are largely under our control at Oshkosh.

我想重申此次活動有關我們 2028 年目標的兩個關鍵訊息。首先，我們預期將實現可觀的收入成長。其次，我們期望改變利潤率。我們相信，支持這些回報的許多關鍵驅動因素基本上都在奧什科甚的控制範圍內。

Turning to slide 4, we delivered an adjusted operating margin of 11.5% on revenue of $2.7 billion in our second quarter. This led to adjusted earnings per share of $3.41, an increase of 2.1% over the prior year. These results reflect strong performance across each of our segments, which Matt will dig into later in the call.

轉到投影片 4，我們第二季的調整後營業利潤率為 11.5%，營收為 27 億美元。這導致調整後每股收益為 3.41 美元，比上年增長 2.1%。這些結果反映了我們各部門的強勁表現，Matt 將在稍後的電話會議中深入探討。

We grew adjusted EPS and maintained adjusted operating income margin year over year despite lower revenue, reflecting continued strong performance in our Vocational segment, improved returns in our Transport segment, and a resilient mid-teens margin in our Access segment. Maintaining adjusted operating income margins on lower revenue highlights our commitment to transform margins as we move forward.

儘管收入較低，但我們的調整後每股收益仍同比增長，調整後營業收入利潤率也保持穩定，這反映了我們職業部門繼續表現強勁、運輸部門回報率提高以及接入部門保持穩定的中十幾歲利潤率。在收入較低的情況下維持調整後的營業收入利潤率凸顯了我們致力於在未來實現利潤率轉型的決心。

Our results reflect the disciplined execution of our Innovate. Serve. Advance. strategy, which we show on slide 5. Through this strategy, we have expanded our portfolio to include strong operations like AeroTech and AUSA that expand our business into attractive adjacent markets while improving our earnings profile.

我們的成果反映了我們創新的嚴格執行。服務。先進策略，我們在第 5 張投影片上進行了展示。透過這項策略，我們擴大了投資組合，包括 AeroTech 和 AUSA 等強大的業務，將我們的業務擴展到有吸引力的鄰近市場，同時改善我們的獲利狀況。

Turning to slide 6 for Q2 highlights. As I mentioned earlier, we discussed our plans to grow the company at our Investor Day. We were excited to share our 2028 targets with you all, including a compound annual revenue growth rate of 7% to 10% and transformative margin expansion of 200 to 400 basis points. While these are targets for 2028, we believe the building blocks that support our plan are in place today.

請翻到幻燈片 6 查看第二季的亮點。正如我之前提到的，我們在投資者日討論了公司發展計劃。我們很高興與大家分享我們的 2028 年目標，包括 7% 至 10% 的複合年收入成長率和 200 至 400 個基點的轉型利潤率擴大。雖然這些是2028年的目標，但我們相信，支持我們計劃的基礎現在已經到位。

As we expected and highlighted at our Investor Day, we signed a three-year sole source contract for FMTV, the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles program, with the Department of Defense just a week later. This contract includes updated pricing and an economic price adjustment mechanism, which we believe will yield favorable returns as we build units under the contract.

正如我們在投資者日所預期和強調的那樣，僅僅一周後，我們就與國防部簽署了為期三年的 FMTV（中型戰術車輛系列計劃）獨家來源合約。該合約包括更新的定價和經濟價格調整機制，我們相信這將在我們根據合約建造單位時產生有利的回報。

A significant part of the FMTV program is the launch of our LVAD, or low-velocity air drop variants, which have been favorably received by the DoD. This new FMTV contract follows our five-year FHTV, Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles, contract with the DoD that we signed last year and has similar terms. Our performance this quarter in the Transport segment, in part, reflects production of FHTV units under these new contract terms.

FMTV 計劃的一個重要部分是推出我們的 LVAD 或低速空投變體，該計劃受到了國防部的好評。這份新的 FMTV 合約是繼我們去年與國防部簽署的五年期 FHTV（重型戰術車輛系列）合約之後的又一合同，其條款也與此類似。我們本季在運輸領域的表現在一定程度上反映了根據這些新合約條款生產的 FHTV 車輛。

For the delivery side of the Transport segment, we're making steady progress with the production ramp up of the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle for the United States Postal Service at our Spartanburg, South Carolina, facility. In June, we surpassed one million cumulative miles driven by postal workers across the fielded NGDV fleet, an exciting milestone that reflects the momentum of this program. And in July, the USPS topped 1.5 million cumulative miles.

對於運輸部門的投遞方面，我們在南卡羅來納州斯帕坦堡的工廠為美國郵政服務生產的下一代投遞車輛正在穩步推進。6 月份，郵政工作人員駕駛的 NGDV 車隊累積行駛里程已超過 100 萬英里，這是一個令人興奮的里程碑，反映了該計劃的發展勢頭。7 月份，美國郵政服務累計里程突破 150 萬英里。

We're also pleased to welcome Steve Nordlund, who joined in mid-July to lead the Transport segment. Steve brings a proven track record of innovation, leadership, and success in securing major defense contracts. Most recently, he led Boeing's Air Dominance Division, which includes the recent award of the sixth generation F-47 fighter aircraft. He's a valuable addition to our team and is well positioned to help drive continued growth and performance in this segment.

我們也很高興地歡迎史蒂夫·諾德倫 (Steve Nordlund)，他於 7 月中旬加入並領導運輸部門。史蒂夫在創新、領導和成功獲得重大國防合約方面擁有良好的記錄。最近，他領導了波音公司的空中優勢部門，該部門最近獲得了第六代 F-47 戰鬥機的獎項。他是我們團隊的寶貴成員，能夠幫助推動該領域的持續成長和表現。

Turning to slide 7. Another highlight of the quarter was the launch of our micro-sized scissor lift, which we announced in May and we began delivering in June. This product, specifically designed for data center customers, has been so well received that we are already evaluating options to expand capacity for this model and broaden the product line.

翻到幻燈片 7。本季度的另一個亮點是推出微型剪式升降機，我們於 5 月宣布推出該產品，並於 6 月開始交付。這款專為資料中心客戶設計的產品廣受好評，我們開始評估擴大該型號容量和拓寬產品線的選項。

Sales in the Access segment were in line with expectations. The segment delivered nearly 15% adjusted operating income for the quarter, despite 11% lower revenue.

Access 部門的銷售額符合預期。儘管該部門收入下降了 11%，但本季調整後的營業收入仍接近 15%。

Last, but certainly not least, I want to highlight the strong performance in our Vocational segment. At Investor Day, we discussed the opportunity to expand capacity progressively in this segment to meet growing demand and fulfill backlog orders.

最後，但同樣重要的一點是，我想強調我們職業教育領域的強勁表現。在投資者日，我們討論了逐步擴大該領域產能的機會，以滿足不斷增長的需求並完成積壓訂單。

Deliveries of our fire apparatus increased 7% in the quarter compared to last year, which included 15 trucks for Kansas City, Missouri, a great example of the many deliveries we're making to fire departments across North America. These efforts contributed to a 15% revenue increase for the segment and 20% growth for fire apparatus.

與去年相比，本季度我們的消防設備交付量增加了 7%，其中包括向密蘇裡州堪薩斯城交付的 15 輛卡車，這是我們向北美各地消防部門交付大量消防設備的一個很好的例子。這些努力促使該部門的收入成長了 15%，消防設備的收入成長了 20%。

We are proud to serve firefighters throughout the country and are honored to once again co-sponsor the 9-11 Memorial Stair Climb on September 20 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. This is the 13th year of our support for this outstanding event benefiting the National Fallen Firefighters Foundation.

我們很榮幸能夠為全國各地的消防員提供服務，並很榮幸能再次共同贊助 9 月 20 日在綠灣蘭博球場舉行的 9-11 紀念爬樓梯活動。這是我們支持這項惠及全國陣亡消防員基金會的傑出活動的第 13 年。

We are committed to partnerships like these and building our business to be sustainable for the long term. Many of our initiatives are highlighted in our 12th Annual Sustainability Report, which we published in June.

我們致力於建立這樣的合作關係，並使我們的業務長期可持續發展。我們在 6 月發布的第 12 份年度永續發展報告中重點介紹了我們的許多舉措。

In summary, this was another strong quarter for Oshkosh with contributions from all our segments. As we shared at our Investor Day, we believe we are well positioned to grow revenue and transform our margins between now and 2028, and the building blocks that deliver on this growth are evident in this quarter's results.

總而言之，對於奧什科甚來說，這是另一個表現強勁的季度，所有部門都做出了貢獻。正如我們在投資者日所分享的那樣，我們相信，從現在到 2028 年，我們已做好準備，實現收入增長並轉變利潤率，而實現這一增長的基礎已在本季度的業績中得到充分體現。

With that, I'll hand it over to Matt to walk through our detailed financial results.

說完這些，我將交給馬特介紹我們的詳細財務結果。

Thanks, John. Please turn to slide 8.

謝謝，約翰。請翻到第 8 張投影片。

Consolidated sales for the second quarter were $2.7 billion, a decrease of $115 million, or 4%, from the same quarter last year, primarily due to lower sales volume in the Access and Transport segments, which was partially offset by higher Vocational sales volume and improved pricing.

第二季綜合銷售額為 27 億美元，較去年同期減少 1.15 億美元，降幅 4%，主要由於 Access 和 Transport 部門的銷售額下降，但職業銷售額增加和定價提高部分抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted operating income was $313 million, down slightly from the prior year as a result of lower sales volume. Adjusted operating income margin of 11.5% was consistent with the prior year despite lower sales. Adjusted earnings per share was $3.41 in the second quarter, $0.07 higher than last year.

調整後的營業收入為 3.13 億美元，由於銷售量下降，較上年略有下降。儘管銷售額下降，但調整後的營業收入利潤率為 11.5%，與前一年持平。第二季調整後每股收益為 3.41 美元，比去年同期高出 0.07 美元。

During the quarter, we stepped up our share repurchases, repurchasing nearly 415,000 shares of our stock for about $40 million, bringing our year-to-date share repurchases to nearly $70 million. Share repurchases during the previous 12 months benefited adjusted EPS by $0.06 compared to the second quarter of 2024.

本季度，我們加大了股票回購力度，以約 4,000 萬美元回購了近 415,000 股股票，使我們年初至今的股票回購總額達到近 7,000 萬美元。與 2024 年第二季相比，過去 12 個月的股票回購使調整後每股盈餘增加 0.06 美元。

Positive free cash flow for the quarter of $49 million was significantly higher than the second quarter of 2024, which had a net use of cash of $251 million. Improved free cash flow primarily reflected the timing of tax payments and better management of receivables.

本季的正自由現金流為 4,900 萬美元，顯著高於 2024 年第二季的 2.51 億美元淨現金使用量。自由現金流的改善主要反映了納稅的時間表和更好的應收帳款管理。

Turning to our segment highlights on slide 9., The Access segment delivered resilient adjusted operating income margins of 14.8% on sales of $1.26 billion. Market conditions for Access equipment in North America were in line with our expectations.

前往投影片 9 上的分部亮點，Access 分部實現了 14.8% 的調整後營業利潤率，銷售額為 12.6 億美元。北美 Access 設備的市場狀況符合我們的預期。

Sales were $151 million lower than last year, reflecting the expiration of our agreement to produce CAT-branded telehandlers, which ended last year, and higher discounts. We also experienced lower sales volume in Europe, which was partially offset by sales at AUSA.

銷售額比去年減少了 1.51 億美元，這反映了我們生產 CAT 品牌伸縮臂叉裝機的協議（該協議於去年結束）到期以及折扣增加。我們在歐洲的銷售量也出現了下降，但 AUSA 的銷售額部分抵消了下降。

Our Vocational segment continued to deliver higher sales volume and improved pricing as we worked down our backlog, achieving an adjusted operating income margin of 16.3% on $970 million of sales. Vocational's 16.3% adjusted operating income margin was a 220-basis-point increase from last year, reflecting improved price-cost dynamics.

隨著我們努力減少積壓訂單，我們的職業部門繼續實現更高的銷售量和更好的定價，在 9.7 億美元的銷售額中實現了 16.3% 的調整後營業利潤率。Vocational 的調整後營業利潤率為 16.3%，比去年增加了 220 個基點，反映出價格成本動態的改善。

The Transport segment delivered an improved operating income margin of 3.7%, compared to 2.1% last year, despite lower sales volume. Transport sales decreased $93 million to $479 million. Revenue from delivery vehicles represented an increasing share of Transport sales, growing from 6% a year ago when we began shipping NGDVs to 11% during the first quarter of 2025 and 22% during the second quarter.

儘管銷售量較低，但運輸部門的營業收入利潤率仍提高至 3.7%，而去年同期為 2.1%。運輸銷售額減少 9,300 萬美元至 4.79 億美元。配送車輛的收入在運輸銷售額中所佔的份額不斷增加，從一年前我們開始運輸 NGDV 時的 6% 增長到 2025 年第一季的 11% 和第二季度的 22%。

As expected, defense vehicle volume was lower due to the wind down of the domestic JLTV program, partially offset by higher international sales of tactical wheeled vehicles. Improved FHTV pricing, as highlighted by John, was the largest contributor of the higher operating income margin.

正如預期的那樣，由於國內 JLTV 項目的結束，國防車輛銷量有所下降，但戰術輪式車輛的國際銷量增加部分抵消了這一影響。正如約翰所強調的，FHTV 定價的提高是營業收入利潤率提高的最大貢獻因素。

Please turn to slide 10. Turning to our outlook for the balance of this year, the tariff environment continues to remain dynamic. As we incorporate the impact of pauses and revisions to tariff rates, as well as our strong performance this quarter, we expect a more limited impact from tariffs on our business compared with the last quarter after incorporating the cost actions we have enacted.

請翻到第 10 張投影片。展望今年的平衡，關稅環境將持續保持動態。由於我們考慮到了暫停和修改關稅稅率的影響，以及我們本季的強勁表現，我們預計，與上一季相比，在採取了成本措施後，關稅對我們業務的影響將更加有限。

For the year, we project the impact of tariffs to be fully offset and expect our adjusted EPS for the year to be in the range of $11 per share on revenues of approximately $10.6 billion, equal to our pre-tariff guidance. We anticipate tariffs and market dynamics will impact each segment differently, leading to a slightly weaker Access adjusted operating income margin, with stronger Vocational and Transport results, as shown on the slide.

對於今年，我們預計關稅的影響將被完全抵消，並預計今年調整後的每股收益將在 11 美元左右，營收約 106 億美元，與關稅前的預期持平。我們預期關稅和市場動態將對每個部門產生不同的影響，導致接取調整後的營業收入利潤率略有下降，而職業和運輸部門的表現將增強，如幻燈片所示。

This remains a fluid environment, and I'm confident we have the levers across the organization to deliver these results, assuming the external macro environment remains resilient, as we've seen today. We are also increasing our outlook for free cash flow from a range of $300 million to $400 million to a range of $400 million to $500 million, reflecting primarily the recently enacted tax bill and operating performance.

這仍然是一個不穩定的環境，我相信我們整個組織都有能力實現這些結果，假設外部宏觀環境保持彈性，正如我們今天所看到的那樣。我們也將自由現金流預期從 3 億至 4 億美元上調至 4 億至 5 億美元，這主要反映了最近頒布的稅收法案和營運業績。

In the second quarter, we stepped up share repurchases, and we fully expect to continue to materially increase the pace of our share buybacks across the year.

在第二季度，我們加大了股票回購力度，並且我們完全預計全年將繼續大幅加快股票回購的步伐。

I want to reiterate what we said last quarter and you saw in on Investor Day and in our 2028 targets, that we remain committed to execute on our strategies, despite uncertainty introduced by tariffs. We believe the trends that support our industry-leading businesses will provide long-term growth opportunities, and we are well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities.

我想重申我們上個季度所說的內容，以及您在投資者日和我們的 2028 年目標中看到的，儘管關稅帶來了不確定性，但我們仍然致力於執行我們的策略。我們相信，支持我們行業領先業務的趨勢將提供長期成長機會，並且我們已準備好利用這些機會。

With that, I'll turn it back over to John for some closing comments.

說完這些，我將把話題交還給約翰，請他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Matt. Despite the dynamic tariff environment, we're well positioned to take the necessary actions to deliver strong performance. We shared our vision for the company, our balanced and resilient business, and our path to roughly double adjusted EPS to a targeted range of $18 to $22 per share in 2028.

謝謝，馬特。儘管關稅環境瞬息萬變，仍有能力採取必要措施，以實現強勁業績。我們分享了對公司的願景、均衡而有韌性的業務，以及到 2028 年將調整後每股收益大致翻一番至每股 18 美元至 22 美元的目標範圍的途徑。

Our performance in the second quarter is just the first step on this journey, and we are excited to share our progress with you along the way.

我們第二季的業績只是這趟旅程的第一步，我們很高興與您分享我們一路以來的進展。

I'll turn it back to you, Pat, for the Q&A.

我會把問題交還給你，帕特，進行問答。

Thanks, John. I'd like to remind everybody, please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up. Please stay disciplined on your follow-up question. And after the follow-up, we ask that you rejoin the queue if you have additional questions.

謝謝，約翰。我想提醒大家，請將您的問題限制為一個，外加一個後續問題。請謹慎回答您的後續問題。後續跟進後，如果您還有其他問題，請重新加入隊列。

Operator, please begin the Q&A session.

接線生，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) David Raso, Evercore.

（操作員指示）David Raso，Evercore。

Quick question. On the Access segment, right: first-half margins, 13.3%; implied second half, 10.7%. And the decrementals year over year are similar to the first half, 38%, 39%, 40%. The confidence in that pricing that you mentioned, can you give us a little more detail?

快速提問。在 Access 部分（右）：上半年利潤率為 13.3%；預計下半年利潤率為 10.7%。年比降幅與上半年基本持平，分別為38%、39%、40%。您提到的定價很有信心，能否提供我們更多細節？

With the incremental tariff, I would assume, cost pressure, when were those costs -- those prices instituted? How much is that already in the backlog? Or is it related to expected orders the rest of the year? Like your backlog coverage is 54% of the implied second-half guide.

我認為，隨著增量關稅的實施，成本壓力加大，這些成本──這些價格是什麼時候制定的？已經積壓了多少？還是這與今年剩餘時間的預期訂單有關？就像您的積壓覆蓋率是隱含的下半年指南的 54% 一樣。

So I'm just trying to make sure, is it pricing that's already in the backlog so you feel confident you'll get it? Or is it orders to come that you're hoping to get the price?

所以我只是想確認一下，這個定價是否已經在積壓中了，這樣您就有信心能夠得到它嗎？還是您希望獲得價格的訂單？

So the second-half results really is two things. One, obviously, there's some seasonality in there. But fundamentally, what we expect to see is in -- really, it's more the fourth quarter, some of the impact on tariffs on the cost side.

因此下半年的結果其實是兩件事。首先，顯然這其中有一定的季節性。但從根本上來說，我們預期關稅對成本方面的影響實際上更多地出現在第四季度。

There's a number of mitigation actions we've taken against tariffs that we talked about on prior calls. And our overall top line, we expect continued discounts relative to last year and a weaker external environment, similar to what we saw in the first half, roughly.

我們在之前的電話會議上討論過，已經採取了一些緩解關稅的措施。就我們的整體營收而言，我們預計與去年相比，折扣將繼續增加，外部環境也將減弱，與我們上半年看到的情況大致相同。

Okay, so 3Q is a little bit old pricing, but still more of the older costs. Fourth quarter is really where the price has to show up. And the last -- sorry.

好的，所以 3Q 的定價有點舊，但仍然包含更多的舊成本。第四季才是價格真正顯現的階段。最後——抱歉。

That's where we'd see more of the cost elements kick in is the fourth quarter, plus some of the resourcing actions and other actions we would have from our tariff mitigations.

我們將在第四季度看到更多成本因素的出現，再加上一些資源配置行動以及我們將從關稅減免中採取的其他行動。

And then last on Vocational. The margins in the second half at 16.4%, implied after 15.6% in the first half. Is that some of the pricing we've heard for a while about we have better pricing in the backlog?

最後是職業。下半年利潤率為16.4%，高於上半年的15.6%。這是我們一段時間以來聽到的有關積壓訂單的更好定價嗎？

And even with -- assuming some tariff input cost, is the backlog already priced where you feel very confident you have the better margins in the second half than the first half? And I know the backlog coverage is large, so I'm just really trying to figure out until we already have it baked in.

即使假設有一些關稅投入成本，積壓訂單是否已經定價，您是否非常有信心下半年的利潤率會比上半年更高？而且我知道積壓覆蓋範圍很大，所以我只是想弄清楚，直到我們已經將其融入其中。

Yeah. So on Vocational. As we've talked about before and we talked about it Investor Day, we're progressively working through ramping up our capacity, and that's a big driver of the second half relative to the first half as we ramp up capacity.

是的。所以就職業而言。正如我們之前談到的，我們在投資者日也談到了，我們正在逐步提高產能，隨著產能的提高，這是下半年相對於上半年的一個巨大推動力。

Obviously, there is pricing in the backlog that would come to the fore. We would see that continue. But really, you're talking about volume growth over the second half driving improvements.

顯然，積壓訂單中的定價問題將會凸顯出來。我們會看到這種情況繼續下去。但實際上，您談論的是下半年銷售成長推動的改善。

Yeah. David, with those backlogs in Vocational, we'll continue to get some modest benefits from pricing for the next two, three years.

是的。大衛，由於職業教育的積壓，我們將在未來兩三年內繼續從定價中獲得一些適度的收益。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷，貝爾德。

Just a quick clarification on your tariff commentary. I mean, what I heard is that you said that you expect to fully offset the headwind. So I'm curious to hear as to exactly how you're going to do that.

只是想快速澄清一下您的關稅評論。我的意思是，我聽到的是，您說您希望完全抵消逆風。所以我很好奇你到底要怎麼做。

And then for the prior question, it seems that the fourth quarter is where you're starting to experience maybe some higher tariff-related headwinds. Does that -- is that getting fully offset? Or is that becoming more of an issue into 2026 as we're thinking about Access equipment, maybe specifically?

然後對於先前的問題，似乎第四季你們開始遇到一些與關稅相關的更高阻力。這是否—這是否完全被抵銷了？或者，當我們考慮 Access 設備時，這會在 2026 年成為一個更大的問題嗎？

So let me be clear. We, just like any manufacturer in America, still have tariff headwinds coming at us, right? And there's a few things going on.

所以讓我說清楚。我們和美國的任何製造商一樣，仍然面臨關稅阻力，對嗎？還有一些事情正在發生。

Number one, the tariffs that we're experiencing now -- it's a very dynamic situation, changes regularly. So what we're seeing right now is a little bit better tariff environment than we saw one quarter ago. So that's part of it.

第一，我們現在面臨的關稅是一個非常動態的情況，經常改變。因此，我們現在看到的關稅環境比一個季度前要好一些。這就是其中的一部分。

The other part of it is we're continuing to execute our mitigation strategy. As I've always said, most of what we sell in America is made in America. That gives us an advantage to start.

另一部分是我們正在繼續執行我們的緩解策略。正如我一直說的那樣，我們在美國銷售的大部分產品都是在美國製造的。這給了我們一個起步優勢。

We have a local-for-local strategy. We're really trying to drive local production for local regions -- Europe for Europe, example; the US for US. We do a lot of work negotiating with our suppliers. We're engaged in resourcing work where we need to or on-shoring work where we need to.

我們有一個在地化策略。我們確實在努力推動當地地區的本地生產——例如，歐洲的本地生產；美國的本地生產。我們與供應商進行了大量談判。我們致力於在需要的地方提供資源或將工作轉移到國內。

But we still do have a tariff headwind. We just believe that we've got the right strategies in place to be able to deal with tariffs and offset what we need to offset. There's also business outperformance that's helping us get over tariffs as well. And that's why we're back to an $11 guide.

但我們仍然面臨關稅阻力。我們只是相信我們已經制定了正確的策略來應對關稅並抵消我們需要抵消的損失。業務的優異表現也幫助我們克服了關稅問題。這就是我們重新回到 11 美元指南的原因。

My follow-up, maybe in the Transportation segment. Parsing out Q3 versus Q4 margin that's embedded into your guide, should we think about that exit run rate as something that's sustainable into 2026 that maybe hopefully you can build upon?

我的後續行動可能是在交通運輸領域。分析指南中包含的第三季與第四季的利潤率，我們是否應該將退出運行率視為可持續到 2026 年的指標，希望您能在此基礎上繼續發展？

Sure. So as you saw, Transport improved in the second quarter. We would expect steady improvement as we roll on to new contracts. As we mentioned on the call, we started building under the new FHTV contract, and we announced the new FMTV contract. We'll start building on that in 2026, mid-year or so.

當然。正如您所看到的，第二季度運輸狀況有所改善。隨著我們簽訂新合同，我們預計情況會穩步改善。正如我們在電話中提到的，我們開始根據新的 FHTV 合約進行建設，並且我們宣布了新的 FMTV 合約。我們將在 2026 年中期左右開始推進這一目標。

So I would expect to see second-half performance as implied in our guide will improve, and then we have additional building blocks into 2026.

因此，我預計下半年的表現會如我們的指南所暗示的那樣有所改善，然後我們將在 2026 年獲得更多的基礎。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

I just wanted to go back to the Access equipment. A couple of things. I guess you noted a little bit of sales discounts or higher sales discounts in the quarter. Just hoping you could comment a little bit more on that and just the general competitive environment.

我只是想回到 Access 設備。有幾件事。我想您注意到本季有少量銷售折扣或更高的銷售折扣。只是希望您能對此以及整體競爭環境發表更多評論。

And as you combine that with what you're hearing or seeing from customers, in terms of demand and order backlog for the second half, like what gives you confidence that we won't see potential pushouts or further pressure from that discounting activity?

並且，結合您從客戶那裡聽到或看到的情況，就下半年的需求和訂單積壓而言，是什麼讓您有信心我們不會看到潛在的延期或折扣活動帶來的進一步壓力？

Yeah. So as I mentioned, Angel, that we're seeing an external environment that's about what we expected at the beginning of the year. Discounts in the range of 2% to 3% is consistent with our expectation for the year as well. Book-to-bill has returned to normative levels, so we're seeing a return to normal seasonality.

是的。正如我所提到的，安吉爾，我們看到的外在環境與我們年初預期的差不多。2%至3%的折扣也符合我們對今年的預期。訂單出貨比已恢復到正常水平，因此我們看到季節性回歸正常。

I'll let John comment on customers and some of the conversations we're having there. But overall, the market's been fairly resilient and really, overall, as we expected.

我會讓約翰對顧客和我們在那裡進行的一些對話發表評論。但總體而言，市場表現相當有彈性，而且總體上確實如我們預期的那樣。

Yeah. Angel, going on with regard to our customers, first thing that I'll highlight is that utilization rates of equipment in the Access industry are fine. They're actually pretty good.

是的。Angel，關於我們的客戶，我首先要強調的是，Access 產業的設備利用率很好。他們實際上非常好。

And so what our customers are really seeing is there's a really nice pocket of demand, which is meaningful, coming from big projects. That's infrastructure spending, which is going to go on for years; data centers that will go on for years -- and these data centers are gigantic, and they draw a lot of equipment -- power generation.

因此，我們的客戶真正看到的是，來自大型專案的需求確實很大，而且意義重大。這是基礎設施支出，將持續數年；資料中心也將持續數年——這些資料中心非常龐大，需要消耗大量設備來發電。

On the other side of it, you've got private non-residential, think about building construction, where there -- we're seeing a lot of holding and pausing. We're not seeing any project cancellations in the market to speak of anyways, but there's a lot of pausing and waiting for conditions to stabilize.

另一方面，我們看到私人非住宅建築業有許多暫停和擱置的情況。無論如何，我們並沒有看到市場上有任何項目取消的情況，但有許多項目暫停並等待條件穩定。

That might mean interest rates, what's the Fed going to do. It might mean what -- how's tariffs going to impact end markets before we proceed with this project. So that's on the other side of it. And I think that -- but overall, customers are comfortable with where utilization rates are.

這可能意味著利率，聯準會將會做什麼。這可能意味著——在我們繼續進行這個專案之前，關稅將如何影響終端市場。這就是它的另一面。我認為——但總的來說，客戶對目前的利用率感到滿意。

That's very helpful. And then maybe just as it relates to those customer conversations. I guess one, have you seen any step change in their desire to buy equipment, I guess, as -- given the tax bill? And then could you quantify a little bit more specifically what's embedded in your guidance for free cash flow in terms of those tax benefits?

這非常有幫助。然後也許就與那些客戶對話有關。我想，首先，考慮到稅收法案，你是否看到他們購買設備的意願有任何變化？然後，您能否更具體地量化您在自由現金流指導中包含的稅收優惠內容？

Well, we think that the tax benefits in the OBB are certainly supportive of our long-term outlook and long-term trends. It's an ongoing change to the tax law, so I don't know that we're going to see a specific spike in the near term. There is not an expiration date to the -- to what they did with regard to taxes. But we think overall, it supports the long-term health of the industry when our customers buy capital equipment.

嗯，我們認為 OBB 中的稅收優惠肯定支持我們的長期前景和長期趨勢。稅法正在不斷變化，所以我不知道短期內是否會出現具體的飆升。他們在稅收方面採取的措施沒有截止日期。但我們認為總體而言，當我們的客戶購買資本設備時，它將支持該產業的長期健康發展。

Just building on that in terms of the free cash flow, specifically, we did increase our guide from $300 million to $400 million to $400 million and $500 million. That largely reflects some of the tax bill changes on R&D credits and how those get handled.

具體來說，就自由現金流而言，我們確實將指導金額從 3 億美元提高到 4 億美元，再提高到 4 億美元和 5 億美元。這在很大程度上反映了稅法對研發抵免的一些變化及其處理方式。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

瑞銀的史蒂文·費雪。

Just to follow up again on the second half on the Access side of things and on that last question. I guess, as was pointed out before, only about half of the second-half revenue implied is in backlog. So are you anticipating that activity will actually increase in the second half of the year and there'll be a lot of book and burn? Is that what you're expecting and your confidence there?

只是想再次跟進 Access 方面的後半部分以及最後一個問題。我想，正如之前指出的那樣，下半年隱含收入中只有大約一半是積壓的。那麼，您是否預計下半年的活動實際上會增加，並且會出現大量的書籍焚燒？這就是您所期望的和您的信心嗎？

The backlog that we have right now are about $1.2 billion in backlog. It's a totally normal backlog, especially as we're here in the early first third of the third quarter. And this is -- it's normal for us to come in with orders already booked, but also needing to continue to take orders. That's a totally normal environment for us. Nothing is abnormal about that.

我們目前的積壓訂單總額約為 12 億美元。這是一個完全正常的積壓，特別是因為我們正處於第三季的前三分之一。這是很正常的，我們來的時候已經有訂單了，但是還需要繼續接受訂單。對我們來說這是一個完全正常的環境。這沒有什麼不正常的。

So yes, we do need to book some orders in the third and the fourth quarter. And that's almost always the case, so it's not abnormal at all. $1.2 billion backlog sitting right now is in the line of historical norms.

所以是的，我們確實需要在第三季和第四季預訂一些訂單。這種情況幾乎總是如此，所以根本不異常。目前 12 億美元的積壓訂單符合歷史正常水準。

Okay, fair enough. And then I know, as you said in the release and on the call, it is a dynamic tariff environment. I think the release said you're reflecting tariffs as of July 30. I'm curious, just -- I don't know if you've even had any time to think about it, but the August 1 update, what that might mean relative to what you've already assumed based on July 30?

好吧，夠公平。然後我知道，正如您在發布會和電話中所說的那樣，這是一個動態的關稅環境。我認為新聞稿中說的是截至 7 月 30 日的關稅。我很好奇，只是——我不知道你是否有時間考慮過這個問題，但是 8 月 1 日的更新，相對於你根據 7 月 30 日已經假設的情況，這意味著什麼？

Well, it's a -- surely, Steve, it's a dynamic environment. And we are always updating our outlooks and what we need to do based upon the changing environment.

嗯，史蒂夫，這當然是一個充滿活力的環境。我們始終根據不斷變化的環境來更新我們的觀點和我們需要做的事情。

The good news is some of our biggest trading partners seem to have come to some resolution with the administration on what the tariff rate will be. Think about Europe as one example. So that gives us some comfort.

好消息是，我們的一些最大的貿易夥伴似乎已經與政府就關稅稅率達成了某種決議。以歐洲為例。這給了我們一些安慰。

But sure, there could be some disturbances today, on August 1, or over the next quarter; and we'll adjust to it as necessary. But we do feel okay because some of our big trading partners have seemed to come to a framework for resolution.

但當然，今天、8 月 1 日或下一季可能會出現一些幹擾；我們會根據需要進行調整。但我們確實感覺還好，因為我們的一些大貿易夥伴似乎已經達成了解決框架。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

The first question is just on the Vocational business, the strength in the fire segment of 20%. Just curious how -- as you think about delivering on that backlog in the back half of the year, should we expect a similar construct in terms of the -- from a product mix standpoint? Or any changes that you'd call out in terms of -- going back to that earlier question, I would assume that that had some positive impact from a margin standpoint in the quarter. So I'm just curious if that's expected to continue in the second half.

第一個問題是關於職業業務的，火力部分的強度為 20%。只是好奇——當您考慮在下半年完成這些積壓訂單時，從產品組合的角度來看，我們是否應該期待類似的結構？或者您所呼籲的任何變化 - 回到先前的問題，我認為從本季度的利潤率角度來看，這些變化產生了一些積極的影響。所以我只是好奇這種情況是否會在下半年繼續下去。

Yes, it is expected to continue. Pierce, our fire brand, is a very strong business for us. We are continuing to invest in Pierce. It's the market-leading brand.

是的，預計還會繼續。我們的熱門品牌 Pierce 對我們來說是一項非常強大的事業。我們將繼續對皮爾斯進行投資。它是市場領先的品牌。

We're really focused on continuing to increase capacity. We've got great people and a great team that is executing this. And we're confident that every quarter that goes by, we'll continue to be able to increase supply to our customers and the velocity with which we can supply.

我們真正關注的是繼續提高產能。我們擁有優秀的人才和優秀的團隊來執行這項任務。我們相信，每個季度我們都能繼續增加對客戶的供應量並提高供應速度。

But this is a great business and we think it's going to be for a long time -- stable market, not a cyclical market. So yes is the answer to your question.

但這是一個偉大的行業，我們認為它將長期保持穩定，而不是周期性市場。所以你的問題的答案是肯定的。

Okay, just a quick follow up on the Access business yet again. The sales mix was noted as a positive. Was that more of a product mix, i.e., telehandlers being down more than Access or geography, with Europe being down or both? And then just what's -- how you're thinking about that dynamic in the back half.

好的，再快速跟進 Access 業務。銷售組合被認為是正面的。這是否更像是產品組合問題，即伸縮臂堆高機的銷售下滑幅度大於 Access 或地理位置的下滑幅度，而歐洲的銷售下滑幅度更大，還是兩者兼具？那麼，您如何看待後半部的動態。

Sure. So it's a number of factors in there. Partly, it would be geography mix. We saw stronger mix in North America, which helps. We also actually had a stronger mix of independents than this time last year, even though clearly, we swing into nationals for this quarter relative to last quarter.

當然。這其中有很多因素。部分原因是地理混合。我們看到北美的組合更加強勁，這很有幫助。儘管與上一季相比，本季我們明顯轉向了全國性市場，但與去年同期相比，我們的獨立品牌組合實際上也更加強大。

But on a year-over-year basis, we did see a stronger mix of independents holding up as they support some of the larger projects. And then within that, there was obviously some mix among units.

但與去年同期相比，我們確實看到更多獨立公司支持一些較大的專案。然後在其中，各個單位之間顯然存在一些混合。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Very nice quarter. I have just one question. I think I heard you say you want to steadily increase the buyback through the course of the year. So just wanted to frame what the opportunity could be. Is there a way to think about the repo as a percentage of the pre-cash flow you guided, $400 million to $500 million? Is there a target that XYZ amount of that could be deployed for repo this year?

非常好的季度。我只有一個問題。我想我聽到您說過您想在今年穩步增加回購量。所以只是想概括一下這個機會可能是什麼。有沒有辦法將回購視為您指導的預現金流的百分比，即 4 億至 5 億美元？今年是否有一個目標可以用來回購 XYZ 數量？

So year to date, we've seen about $70 million share repurchase, with about $40 million of that in the second quarter. As you correctly noted, we did mention that we would step that up. Last year, we bought about $120 million.

今年迄今為止，我們已經回購了約 7,000 萬美元的股票，其中第二季回購了約 4,000 萬美元。正如您正確指出的那樣，我們確實提到我們會加強這一點。去年，我們買了約1.2億美元。

I would expect that to roughly double, maybe a little bit more than that. So I don't look at it necessarily as a percentage of pre-cash flow, more as just how we're executing this year and our comfort level with our execution level.

我預計這個數字大約會翻一番，甚至可能更多。因此，我不一定將其視為預先現金流的百分比，而更多地將其視為我們今年的執行情況以及我們對執行水平的滿意程度。

(Operator Instructions) Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

（操作員指示）Chad Dillard，Bernstein。

Can we talk a little bit more about your expectations for orders in the second half? More specifically, how are you thinking about the contribution from national accounts versus independent? And then maybe you can talk about just what is in the backlog mix on those terms.

能否再談談您對下半年訂單的期待？更具體地說，您如何看待國家帳戶與獨立帳戶的貢獻？然後也許您可以談論一下這些條款中的積壓內容是什麼。

I'm not going to get into what's in the backlog right now. Our backlog is healthy. It's normal. As I talked about a little bit earlier, when you look at the marketplace, you see really strong, healthy demand in big, big projects; big infrastructure; data centers, that kind of thing.

我現在不想討論積壓的事情。我們的積壓工作很健康。這很正常。正如我之前提到的，當你觀察市場時，你會看到對大型專案、大型基礎設施、資料中心等的需求非常強勁、健康。

And the nationals tend to get a lot of that business because they've got the huge fleets that can support it. And it takes a huge fleet of equipment to support that activity.

而國民船往往會獲得大量此類業務，因為他們擁有可以支援此類業務的龐大船隊。並且需要大量的設備來支援這項活動。

So I think you can assume it's a little bit heavier weighted towards nationals for the short term. And we'll see how some of the private non-residential construction shapes up.

因此我認為你可以假設短期內國民的權重會比較大。我們將觀察一些私人非住宅建築的進展。

Again, there's nothing being canceled. It's just a lot of stuff on hold. So that's a little bit of clarification for you on that.

再說一遍，沒有什麼被取消。只是有很多事情被擱置了。所以，這可以為你澄清一點。

That's helpful. And can you also talk through your 3Q and 4Q expectations for Access revenues and margins? So just based on what's in backlog, is typical seasonality the right way to think about it? Or should we be thinking about something else?

這很有幫助。您能否談談對 Access 第三季和第四季營收和利潤的預期？那麼，僅根據積壓情況，典型的季節性是正確的思考方式嗎？或者我們應該考慮其他的事情？

So yeah, you should really think about Access as returning to normal seasonality. We saw that in the first quarter. We've certainly seen that in the second. I would expect third quarter to be a good, strong quarter on a relative basis, and then fourth quarter to dip down again.

所以，是的，你真的應該考慮讓 Access 恢復正常的季節性。我們在第一季就看到了這一點。我們在第二場比賽中確實看到了這一點。我預計第三季將是一個相對良好、強勁的季度，而第四季將再次下滑。

So that's really what we've seen historically, pre-COVID. And that's certainly our outlook for the year as well.

這確實是我們在疫情之前所看到的情況。這當然也是我們對今年的展望。

Kyle Menges, Citi.

花旗銀行的凱爾孟格斯 (Kyle Menges)。

I think the Vocational margin guide for this year now already gets you to the low end of your 2028 target already. So we've seen already coming in a bit ahead of the expectation laid out at the investor day a couple months ago.

我認為今年的職業邊緣指南已經讓你達到了 2028 年目標的低端。因此，我們已經看到業績略高於幾個月前投資者日提出的預期。

So maybe if we could just take a step back and if you could talk a little bit about what you've seen in Vocational, what's come through the backlog and execution that has got you to this point to margins now guided to 16% for the year? And just based on what you see in the backlog and in the plan from an execution standpoint, what could incremental margins look like over the next one to three years for Vocational?

所以，如果我們可以退一步思考，您可以稍微談談您在職業教育方面看到的情況，透過積壓和執行，您取得了哪些成果，使今年的利潤率達到了 16%？僅根據您從執行角度看到的積壓情況和計劃，未來一到三年職業教育的增量利潤率會是多少？

I mean, we really love our -- we love all of our businesses, but Vocational is a business that really is shaping up to continue to be healthy for a long time. These are not cyclical markets. They're fairly stable markets.

我的意思是，我們真的熱愛我們的——我們熱愛我們的所有業務，但職業教育是一項真正正在形成並能長期保持健康發展的業務。這些不是周期性市場。它們是相當穩定的市場。

And the other thing that's great about them is that there's -- their technology is there. It is in demand in these markets, whether it's a fire truck or an environmental vehicle and refuse and recycling or an airport ground service equipment. Our customers want advanced technology in the form of autonomous functionality, sometimes full autonomous.

他們的另一個偉大之處在於——他們的技術就在那裡。這些市場對它的需求很大，無論是消防車、環保車輛、垃圾回收設備或機場地面服務設備。我們的客戶希望獲得具有自主功能甚至完全自主功能的先進技術。

You saw it at the consumer electronics show. We showcased a lot of this autonomous capability and using AI to deliver insights and features on products that nobody ever dreamed possible before. These are the types of things that our customers want us to do. And we are able to do it.

您在消費電子展上看到過它。我們展示了許多這種自主能力，並使用人工智慧來提供以前從未有人想像過的產品見解和功能。這些都是我們的客戶希望我們做的事情。我們能夠做到。

And we believe that this is helping drive demand for vehicles like our new fully integrated refuse and recycling vehicle, which has got all sorts of productivity benefits all over it. That helps our customers be better, and that's why we think these are good markets where we're continuing to execute and grow. And we think that the health is a going to continue for a long time.

我們相信，這有助於推動對我們新型全整合垃圾和回收車輛等車輛的需求，這種車輛具有各種生產力優勢。這有助於我們的客戶變得更好，這就是為什麼我們認為這些都是我們將繼續執行和發展的良好市場。我們認為這種健康狀態將會持續很長一段時間。

Helpful color. And then a question for Matt. Just, I guess, how he's thinking about capital allocation. I thought it was noteworthy, increasing the expectation for share buybacks. I guess that's driven by increase in the free cash flow expectation.

有用的顏色。然後問馬特一個問題。我猜，這只是他如何考慮資本配置的問題。我認為這是值得注意的，增加了對股票回購的預期。我猜這是由自由現金流預期的增加所驅動的。

But I mean, the stock is also trading at 52-week highs. So I would love to hear just how, matt, you're thinking about capital allocation and share buyback going forward.

但我的意思是，該股的交易價格也處於 52 週高點。所以我很想聽聽，馬特，你對未來的資本配置和股票回購有何看法。

Sure, Kyle. So I really -- I think we outlined a good framework at our investor Day. And so our priorities are unchanged from that, which is really, first and foremost, maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet. We're in great shape there.

當然，凱爾。所以我真的——我認為我們在投資者日概述了一個很好的框架。因此，我們的優先事項並沒有改變，這實際上首先是保持強勁的投資等級資產負債表。我們在那裡狀況很好。

Two, it's some of the activities we talked about, which is organic growth. So all of the capacity additions we're talking about vocationally, the opportunities there, that's our second priority.

二，這是我們談到的一些活動，即有機成長。因此，我們所討論的所有職業能力的增加以及其中的機會都是我們的第二要務。

After that would come -- even though we're at a 52-week high, we're still, we believe, discounted multiple. So share repurchases would be a priority following that.

此後——儘管我們處於 52 週高點，但我們相信，我們仍然處於折扣倍數。因此，股票回購將成為接下來的優先事項。

And then lastly would be M&A opportunities as they arise. And we had a good discussion in our Investor Day deck about how we think about M&A.

最後就是出現的併購機會。我們在投資者日的演講中就如何看待併購進行了很好的討論。

So those priorities really don't change even if we're at a 52-week high. We still do believe our multiples would be higher if we were rated as we would expect.

因此，即使我們處於 52 週的高點，這些優先事項實際上也不會改變。我們仍然相信，如果我們的評級符合預期，我們的本益比將會更高。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc.

KeyBanc 的 Steve Barger。

Sorry, I was muted. Yeah. John, with all the focus on near-term Access trends, I'm just going to ask one about the longer-term targets.

抱歉，我被靜音了。是的。約翰，由於大家對近期 Access 趨勢的關注度很高，我只想問一個有關長期目標的問題。

To get to the 2028 midpoint requires about an 8% CAGR. Sitting here today, does that feel like a heavy lift? And can you break out how much you think comes from overall market growth, how much from share gains or new product introduction? Do you expect M&A to be part of that growth? Just holistically, how are you thinking about getting from here to there?

要達到 2028 年的中點，需要大約 8% 的複合年增長率。今天坐在這裡，是不是覺得壓力很大？您能否詳細說明一下，您認為其中有多少來自整體市場成長，有多少來自市場佔有率成長或新產品的推出？您是否預計併購將成為這一成長的一部分？從整體上看，您打算如何從這裡到達那裡？

Yeah, well, when we do those -- the 8% CAGR you're talking about, you're exactly right. We never include any M&A that might be on the horizon. That's all organically driven.

是的，當我們這樣做時 - 您所說的 8％ 複合年增長率是完全正確的。我們從不包括任何可能即將發生的併購。這一切都是有機驅動的。

And we think it's a reasonable, achievable growth rate based upon what's going on in our business and our markets and how we're investing not only in new products in the core of our market, where you'll see us continue to come out with innovations in that core AWP market, but also in some of the places that we've invested with some of the acquisitions we've already made.

我們認為，根據我們的業務和市場狀況以及我們如何投資，這是一個合理的、可實現的成長率，不僅如此，我們還投資於核心市場的新產品，你會看到我們繼續在核心 AWP 市場推出創新，而且還投資於我們已經進行的一些收購的一些領域。

And then you look at some of the more futuristic investment that we're making in our ability to create the job site of the future, which we showcased at CES. And our ability to drive connectivity, drive insights through that connectivity and analytics, and even getting into some machine learning and AI for our customers, that really drives a healthy life cycle business for us that we think is going to continue to be the future of where our end markets want us to support them.

然後你會看到我們為了創造未來的工作場所而進行的一些更具未來感的投資，我們在 CES 上展示了這些投資。我們能夠推動連接，透過連接和分析獲得洞察力，甚至為客戶提供一些機器學習和人工智慧，這確實為我們帶來了健康的生命週期業務，我們認為這將繼續成為我們的終端市場希望我們支持的未來。

And when you combine all that together, we think that an 8% growth rate is very, very reasonable and very achievable.

當把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我們認為 8% 的成長率是非常合理且可以實現的。

Look at some of the tailwinds in the market, too, Steve. You see -- which I've already talked about on this call. You see all these big trends around data centers and infrastructure that's going to go on for a long time. Those are also strong long-term underpinnings to help demand move along over time.

史蒂夫，也看看市場上的一些順風因素。你看——我在這次電話會議中已經討論過這個問題了。您將看到圍繞資料中心和基礎設施的所有這些大趨勢將會持續很長時間。這些也是幫助需求隨著時間的推移而向前發展的強有力的長期基礎。

So is this really more about the pie growing and you maintaining or growing share? Or do you expect a lot of proliferation of applications to go along with that?

那麼這真的更多的是關於蛋糕的擴大以及你維持或增加份額嗎？或者您是否預計應用程式會隨之大量增加？

We expect both to happen.

我們期望兩者都會發生。

Got it. And if I can just squeeze one more in. Sorry if I missed this, but for the Transport revenue cadence in the back half, is 3Q more like the front half in terms of revenue or -- with a really sizable step up in 4Q? Or will the quarters be more level loaded in terms of both revenue and margin?

知道了。如果我能再擠進一個的話。抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點，但對於下半年的運輸收入節奏，第三季度的收入是否更像上半年，或者 - 在第四季度會有大幅增長？或者說，各季度的營收和利潤率是否會更均衡？

So again, we would expect it to be progressively growing over the quarters. Again, as a reminder, think about us building up our production of NGDBs. And so we're steadily ramping throughout the year, so that should give increase sequentially by quarter in terms of revenues in the Transport segment.

因此，我們再次預計它將在各個季度內逐步成長。再提醒一下，想想我們建立 NGDB 的生產。因此，我們全年都在穩步增長，運輸部門的收入應該會逐季度環比增長。

And then as we shift on to new contracts, so think of it as FHTV production this year under the new contract, that would also be a driver for higher revenue sequentially.

然後，隨著我們轉向新合同，因此可以將其視為今年新合約下的 FHTV 產量，這也將成為連續增加收入的驅動力。

Mr. Davidson, we have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

戴維森先生，我們現在沒有其他問題了。我想把發言權交還給您，請您發表最後評論。

All right, Christine. Thank you. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We reported a very strong beat and raise. Please consider that when you're looking at Oshkosh.

好的，克里斯汀。謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們報告了非常強勁的擊敗和提升。當您查看奧什科甚時請考慮這一點。

If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to me or get back with us. We look forward to seeing you in the next quarter at conferences, and have a great rest of the day and a great weekend.

如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡我或回覆我們。我們期待在下一季的會議上見到您，並祝您今天剩餘的時間和週末愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與並祝您有美好的一天。